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000
FXUS66 KMFR 301541
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
841 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...LOCAL OBSERVATIONS, A WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY, SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE COASTAL RANGES AND THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO ALL OF THE WEST SIDE AND
THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, THE EAST SIDE WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE,
AS THE MOISTURE SHOULDN`T QUITE MAKE IT ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
AUGUST TODAY. HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THIS MORNING TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
UPDATED MODEL TIMING, BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES
THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.  ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS TO THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INLAND. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -BPN/CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/CC/JRS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 301541
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
841 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...LOCAL OBSERVATIONS, A WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY, SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE COASTAL RANGES AND THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO ALL OF THE WEST SIDE AND
THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, THE EAST SIDE WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE,
AS THE MOISTURE SHOULDN`T QUITE MAKE IT ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
AUGUST TODAY. HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THIS MORNING TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
UPDATED MODEL TIMING, BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES
THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.  ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS TO THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INLAND. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -BPN/CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/CC/JRS



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 301510
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
910 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...PER SATELLITE IMAGERY WE UPDATED TO REMOVE SHOWERS AND
REDUCE SKY COVER FOR THIS MORNING.  LAST NIGHT/S CLOUD AND PCPN IN
IDAHO HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AND NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
HAS YET TO REACH NRN OREGON ZONES FROM THE WSW.  SKIES CLEARED AND
WINDS DROPPED OFF DURING THE NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP MORE THAN
EXPECTED.  EARLY MORNING TEMPS WERE NEAR 40 IN HARNEY COUNTY/OR...
MID 40S IN BAKER COUNTY...AND MID 50S AT ROME IN SRN MALHEUR COUNTY.
TEMPS DROPPED TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
UPPER 40S AT MCCALL.  THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MORE
SHOWERS TO NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
NO OTHER UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF KBKE-
KMYL. SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY W-NW 5-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...SW 20-30KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BANNER SUMMIT TO CENTRAL OWYHEE COUNTY AT 3 AM
WILL PUSH EAST AND EXIT THE MAGIC VALLEY/CAMAS PRAIRIE BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NE OREGON
THROUGH NOON...SW IDAHO THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND THE EASTERN
PAYETTE FOREST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. SO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT
BRINGS PRECIP FROM THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING...TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN 8-18
DEGREES TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS MONDAY THEN
REBOUND BY 2-5 DEGREES OVER IDAHO AND 6-12 OVER OREGON AS HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES RISE ON WSW FLOW ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT AS
COLD AS LAST SATURDAY MORNING /22 AUG/ WHEN BURNS OREGON GOT DOWN
TO FREEZING WHILE MOST OF THE AG VALLEY LOWS WERE IN THE 50S. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THROUGHOUT THE AREA LATE EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS
NE OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO ESPECIALLY NEAR ONGOING FIRES.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A COOLING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS AGREE
ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING SOUTHWARD OVER THE COAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THEN MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF OUR AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 301510
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
910 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...PER SATELLITE IMAGERY WE UPDATED TO REMOVE SHOWERS AND
REDUCE SKY COVER FOR THIS MORNING.  LAST NIGHT/S CLOUD AND PCPN IN
IDAHO HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AND NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
HAS YET TO REACH NRN OREGON ZONES FROM THE WSW.  SKIES CLEARED AND
WINDS DROPPED OFF DURING THE NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP MORE THAN
EXPECTED.  EARLY MORNING TEMPS WERE NEAR 40 IN HARNEY COUNTY/OR...
MID 40S IN BAKER COUNTY...AND MID 50S AT ROME IN SRN MALHEUR COUNTY.
TEMPS DROPPED TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
UPPER 40S AT MCCALL.  THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MORE
SHOWERS TO NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
NO OTHER UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF KBKE-
KMYL. SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY W-NW 5-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...SW 20-30KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BANNER SUMMIT TO CENTRAL OWYHEE COUNTY AT 3 AM
WILL PUSH EAST AND EXIT THE MAGIC VALLEY/CAMAS PRAIRIE BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NE OREGON
THROUGH NOON...SW IDAHO THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND THE EASTERN
PAYETTE FOREST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. SO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT
BRINGS PRECIP FROM THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING...TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN 8-18
DEGREES TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS MONDAY THEN
REBOUND BY 2-5 DEGREES OVER IDAHO AND 6-12 OVER OREGON AS HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES RISE ON WSW FLOW ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT AS
COLD AS LAST SATURDAY MORNING /22 AUG/ WHEN BURNS OREGON GOT DOWN
TO FREEZING WHILE MOST OF THE AG VALLEY LOWS WERE IN THE 50S. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THROUGHOUT THE AREA LATE EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS
NE OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO ESPECIALLY NEAR ONGOING FIRES.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A COOLING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS AGREE
ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING SOUTHWARD OVER THE COAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THEN MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF OUR AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT



000
FXUS66 KMFR 301311 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES
THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.  ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS TO THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INLAND. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02




000
FXUS66 KMFR 301311 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES
THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.  ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS TO THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INLAND. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02




000
FXUS66 KMFR 301311 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES
THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.  ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS TO THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INLAND. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02




000
FXUS66 KMFR 301311 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES
THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.  ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS TO THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INLAND. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPDT 301158 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
458 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BAROCLINIC BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING A GENERAL
LIGHT RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER VORT MAX AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18Z TO 00Z TODAY FOR THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS EASTWARD TO THE IDAHO BORDER. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL BUT THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE STRONG. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING EXCEPT NEAR THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST...ELSEWHERE
JUST A FEW FEW CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S LOWLANDS WITH 30S TO LOWER 40S
MOUNTAINS. 78

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY..AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR MOST
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND GIVE US CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER.
TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE EVENING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES BUT OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY.
ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE CASCADES, THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY
SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE OCHOCO-JOHN HIGHLANDS TO WALLOWA COUNTY. BY FRIDAY
THE TROUGH SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH  AND ON SATURDAY A LITTLE TO THE
EAST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES, THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY
EACH DAY. ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVING TO THE
ROCKIES AND OUT OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
MAINLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S
WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA THIS MORNING ENDING BY 20Z IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES
AND BY 23Z AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BKN TO OVC ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL TODAY...PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4000 FEET
AGL AT KBDN AND KALW. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND POSSIBLY KALW AND KPDT FROM 18Z TO 23Z. DUE
TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS HAPPENING AT KALW AND KPDT, DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE TAFS. AFTER
00Z SKIES WILL BECOME SCATTERED ABOVE 6000 FEET AGL THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z AND DROP BELOW 15 KTS BY
05Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  52  77  54 /  70  10  10   0
ALW  73  56  78  59 /  70  10  10   0
PSC  76  56  81  55 /  70  10  10   0
YKM  72  48  73  47 /  40  10  10  10
HRI  76  53  80  55 /  70  10  10   0
ELN  68  50  74  50 /  50  10  20  20
RDM  65  40  77  42 /  60  10  10   0
LGD  66  46  78  47 /  60  10  10   0
GCD  67  37  81  39 /  50  10  10   0
DLS  73  56  80  60 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78/83/83



000
FXUS66 KPDT 301158 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
458 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BAROCLINIC BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING A GENERAL
LIGHT RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER VORT MAX AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18Z TO 00Z TODAY FOR THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS EASTWARD TO THE IDAHO BORDER. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL BUT THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE STRONG. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING EXCEPT NEAR THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST...ELSEWHERE
JUST A FEW FEW CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S LOWLANDS WITH 30S TO LOWER 40S
MOUNTAINS. 78

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY..AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR MOST
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND GIVE US CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER.
TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE EVENING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES BUT OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY.
ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE CASCADES, THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY
SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE OCHOCO-JOHN HIGHLANDS TO WALLOWA COUNTY. BY FRIDAY
THE TROUGH SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH  AND ON SATURDAY A LITTLE TO THE
EAST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES, THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY
EACH DAY. ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVING TO THE
ROCKIES AND OUT OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
MAINLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S
WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA THIS MORNING ENDING BY 20Z IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES
AND BY 23Z AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BKN TO OVC ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL TODAY...PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4000 FEET
AGL AT KBDN AND KALW. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND POSSIBLY KALW AND KPDT FROM 18Z TO 23Z. DUE
TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS HAPPENING AT KALW AND KPDT, DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE TAFS. AFTER
00Z SKIES WILL BECOME SCATTERED ABOVE 6000 FEET AGL THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z AND DROP BELOW 15 KTS BY
05Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  52  77  54 /  70  10  10   0
ALW  73  56  78  59 /  70  10  10   0
PSC  76  56  81  55 /  70  10  10   0
YKM  72  48  73  47 /  40  10  10  10
HRI  76  53  80  55 /  70  10  10   0
ELN  68  50  74  50 /  50  10  20  20
RDM  65  40  77  42 /  60  10  10   0
LGD  66  46  78  47 /  60  10  10   0
GCD  67  37  81  39 /  50  10  10   0
DLS  73  56  80  60 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78/83/83




000
FXUS66 KPDT 301158 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
458 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BAROCLINIC BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING A GENERAL
LIGHT RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER VORT MAX AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18Z TO 00Z TODAY FOR THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS EASTWARD TO THE IDAHO BORDER. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL BUT THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE STRONG. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING EXCEPT NEAR THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST...ELSEWHERE
JUST A FEW FEW CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S LOWLANDS WITH 30S TO LOWER 40S
MOUNTAINS. 78

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY..AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR MOST
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND GIVE US CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER.
TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE EVENING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES BUT OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY.
ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE CASCADES, THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY
SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE OCHOCO-JOHN HIGHLANDS TO WALLOWA COUNTY. BY FRIDAY
THE TROUGH SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH  AND ON SATURDAY A LITTLE TO THE
EAST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES, THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY
EACH DAY. ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVING TO THE
ROCKIES AND OUT OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
MAINLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S
WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA THIS MORNING ENDING BY 20Z IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES
AND BY 23Z AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BKN TO OVC ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL TODAY...PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4000 FEET
AGL AT KBDN AND KALW. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND POSSIBLY KALW AND KPDT FROM 18Z TO 23Z. DUE
TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS HAPPENING AT KALW AND KPDT, DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE TAFS. AFTER
00Z SKIES WILL BECOME SCATTERED ABOVE 6000 FEET AGL THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z AND DROP BELOW 15 KTS BY
05Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  52  77  54 /  70  10  10   0
ALW  73  56  78  59 /  70  10  10   0
PSC  76  56  81  55 /  70  10  10   0
YKM  72  48  73  47 /  40  10  10  10
HRI  76  53  80  55 /  70  10  10   0
ELN  68  50  74  50 /  50  10  20  20
RDM  65  40  77  42 /  60  10  10   0
LGD  66  46  78  47 /  60  10  10   0
GCD  67  37  81  39 /  50  10  10   0
DLS  73  56  80  60 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78/83/83




000
FXUS66 KPDT 301158 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
458 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BAROCLINIC BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING A GENERAL
LIGHT RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER VORT MAX AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18Z TO 00Z TODAY FOR THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS EASTWARD TO THE IDAHO BORDER. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL BUT THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE STRONG. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING EXCEPT NEAR THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST...ELSEWHERE
JUST A FEW FEW CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S LOWLANDS WITH 30S TO LOWER 40S
MOUNTAINS. 78

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY..AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR MOST
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND GIVE US CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER.
TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE EVENING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES BUT OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY.
ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE CASCADES, THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY
SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE OCHOCO-JOHN HIGHLANDS TO WALLOWA COUNTY. BY FRIDAY
THE TROUGH SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH  AND ON SATURDAY A LITTLE TO THE
EAST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES, THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY
EACH DAY. ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVING TO THE
ROCKIES AND OUT OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
MAINLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S
WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA THIS MORNING ENDING BY 20Z IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES
AND BY 23Z AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BKN TO OVC ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL TODAY...PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4000 FEET
AGL AT KBDN AND KALW. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND POSSIBLY KALW AND KPDT FROM 18Z TO 23Z. DUE
TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS HAPPENING AT KALW AND KPDT, DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE TAFS. AFTER
00Z SKIES WILL BECOME SCATTERED ABOVE 6000 FEET AGL THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z AND DROP BELOW 15 KTS BY
05Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  52  77  54 /  70  10  10   0
ALW  73  56  78  59 /  70  10  10   0
PSC  76  56  81  55 /  70  10  10   0
YKM  72  48  73  47 /  40  10  10  10
HRI  76  53  80  55 /  70  10  10   0
ELN  68  50  74  50 /  50  10  20  20
RDM  65  40  77  42 /  60  10  10   0
LGD  66  46  78  47 /  60  10  10   0
GCD  67  37  81  39 /  50  10  10   0
DLS  73  56  80  60 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78/83/83


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 301008
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015


.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WITH SHOWERS AROUND REGION THIS AM...BUT SHOWERS
DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH RAIN INTO THE
REGION LATER ON MONDAY...WITH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER LASTING
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUE)... PATTERN MORE RESEMBLES A LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER LATE AUGUST. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLIER THIS AM...AND IS NOW PUSHING OVER THE CASCADES.
STEADY RAIN GENERALLY EAST OF I5 THIS AM AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT. LIKE USUAL... A COOLER MORE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...THOUGH BEST THREAT WILL BE OVER WASHINGTON.

COOLEST AIR...WITH -20C OR COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT NEAR 22K FT...
IS JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. THIS AIR WILL PUSH INTO WASHINGTON
STATE THIS AM...AND OVER FAR NW OREGON. THOUGH TIMING IS NOT MOST
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS N OF A TILLAMOOK TO SCAPPOOSE TO MT ST HELENS
FOR THIS AM. AS AIR MASS BEGINS STABILIZING LATER TODAY... THE
SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER OREGON.

DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER REGION TONIGHT... BUT SHOWERS WILL BE
RATHER SPARSE AS WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON MON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LATER MON AND MON NIGHT
AND TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT...WITH HIGHS ON THE
COAST IN THE 60S AND INLAND VALLEYS IN LOWER 70S.       QUINTON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST THROUGH FRI. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
DECENT PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH AROUND WED OR THU FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THE TIMING VARIES A BIT. THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING IT MAY DRY OUT AND START TO WARM UP SOME NEXT
WEEKEND. TOLLESON
&&


.AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND IS CURRENTLY RUNNING
ALONG A LINE JUST EAST OF KKLS TO JUST WEST OF KEUG. STRONGER
PORTION OF THE FRONT FROM ABOUT KSLE NORTHWARD IS BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW END MVFR VSBYS UNDER HEAVY RAIN. THIS REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE CASCADES
NORTH OF MT JEFFERSON TAKING THE BRUNT.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL SEE
THAT AREA MOVE INLAND TODAY. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PERIODS WHERE MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION.
WILL AMEND AS CERTAINTY IMPROVES. ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED CB AND ISOLATED TSRA TO IMPACT A LINE FROM KTMK TO KSPB
TO MT ADAMS THIS MORNING. WILL SEE CONDITIONS STABILIZE SOMEWHAT
AROUND 19Z WITH WEAKER SHOWERS AND LIKELY VFR CONDS PREVAILING FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT FOR THE COAST...MVFR
STRATUS SEEMS LIKELY WITH IFR STRATUS/VSBYS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
FOR KONP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SCT CB AND ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN
AND WESTERN APPROACHES THROUGH 19Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. EXPECT APPROACH CIGS TO
REMAIN AOA FL040 AFT 19Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE EASED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER. FRESH SWELL IS KEEPING SQUARE SEAS ACROSS
MOST OF THE WORKING BUOYS AND EXPECT ANOTHER REINFORCING 7 TO 9 FT
SWELL BY THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR SEAS
COVERING ALL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN WATERS FIRST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. AS SUCH HAVE
ISSUED ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR WINDS.

SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 TO 10 FEET FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE REGION. IT APPEARS LONGER
PERIOD DISTANT SWELL WILL DOMINATE AFTER TODAY, BUT MAY GET
ADDITIONAL SETS OF SQUARE SEAS/FRESH SWELL AT TIMES. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
TODAY...AND 3 PM TO 10 PM TODAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO
     10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 301008
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015


.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WITH SHOWERS AROUND REGION THIS AM...BUT SHOWERS
DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH RAIN INTO THE
REGION LATER ON MONDAY...WITH UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER LASTING
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUE)... PATTERN MORE RESEMBLES A LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER LATE AUGUST. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLIER THIS AM...AND IS NOW PUSHING OVER THE CASCADES.
STEADY RAIN GENERALLY EAST OF I5 THIS AM AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT. LIKE USUAL... A COOLER MORE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...THOUGH BEST THREAT WILL BE OVER WASHINGTON.

COOLEST AIR...WITH -20C OR COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT NEAR 22K FT...
IS JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. THIS AIR WILL PUSH INTO WASHINGTON
STATE THIS AM...AND OVER FAR NW OREGON. THOUGH TIMING IS NOT MOST
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS N OF A TILLAMOOK TO SCAPPOOSE TO MT ST HELENS
FOR THIS AM. AS AIR MASS BEGINS STABILIZING LATER TODAY... THE
SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER OREGON.

DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER REGION TONIGHT... BUT SHOWERS WILL BE
RATHER SPARSE AS WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON MON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LATER MON AND MON NIGHT
AND TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT...WITH HIGHS ON THE
COAST IN THE 60S AND INLAND VALLEYS IN LOWER 70S.       QUINTON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST THROUGH FRI. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
DECENT PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH AROUND WED OR THU FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THE TIMING VARIES A BIT. THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING IT MAY DRY OUT AND START TO WARM UP SOME NEXT
WEEKEND. TOLLESON
&&


.AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND IS CURRENTLY RUNNING
ALONG A LINE JUST EAST OF KKLS TO JUST WEST OF KEUG. STRONGER
PORTION OF THE FRONT FROM ABOUT KSLE NORTHWARD IS BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW END MVFR VSBYS UNDER HEAVY RAIN. THIS REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE CASCADES
NORTH OF MT JEFFERSON TAKING THE BRUNT.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL SEE
THAT AREA MOVE INLAND TODAY. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PERIODS WHERE MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION.
WILL AMEND AS CERTAINTY IMPROVES. ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED CB AND ISOLATED TSRA TO IMPACT A LINE FROM KTMK TO KSPB
TO MT ADAMS THIS MORNING. WILL SEE CONDITIONS STABILIZE SOMEWHAT
AROUND 19Z WITH WEAKER SHOWERS AND LIKELY VFR CONDS PREVAILING FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT FOR THE COAST...MVFR
STRATUS SEEMS LIKELY WITH IFR STRATUS/VSBYS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
FOR KONP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SCT CB AND ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN
AND WESTERN APPROACHES THROUGH 19Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. EXPECT APPROACH CIGS TO
REMAIN AOA FL040 AFT 19Z. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE EASED ACROSS THE INNER WATERS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER. FRESH SWELL IS KEEPING SQUARE SEAS ACROSS
MOST OF THE WORKING BUOYS AND EXPECT ANOTHER REINFORCING 7 TO 9 FT
SWELL BY THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR SEAS
COVERING ALL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN WATERS FIRST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN AGAIN FROM AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. AS SUCH HAVE
ISSUED ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR WINDS.

SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 TO 10 FEET FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE REGION. IT APPEARS LONGER
PERIOD DISTANT SWELL WILL DOMINATE AFTER TODAY, BUT MAY GET
ADDITIONAL SETS OF SQUARE SEAS/FRESH SWELL AT TIMES. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
TODAY...AND 3 PM TO 10 PM TODAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO
     10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 301000
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BAROCLINIC BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING A GENERAL
LIGHT RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER VORT MAX AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18Z TO 00Z TODAY FOR THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS EASTWARD TO THE IDAHO BORDER. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL BUT THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE STRONG. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING EXCEPT NEAR THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST...ELSEWHERE
JUST A FEW FEW CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S LOWLANDS WITH 30S TO LOWER 40S
MOUNTAINS. 78

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY..AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR MOST
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND GIVE US CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER.
TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE EVENING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES BUT OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY.
ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE CASCADES, THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY
SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE OCHOCO-JOHN HIGHLANDS TO WALLOWA COUNTY. BY FRIDAY
THE TROUGH SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH  AND ON SATURDAY A LITTLE TO THE
EAST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES, THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY
EACH DAY. ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVING TO THE
ROCKIES AND OUT OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
MAINLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S
WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL 08Z WHEN A STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SPREADS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CREATING AREAS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING WITH KDLS AND KYKM.
AROUND 10Z AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN AROUND TAF SITES
KPSC...KPDT...KALW...KRDM...AND KBDN ESPECIALLY IN RAIN SHOWERS.
AFTER 02Z THE CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS
FROM WEST TO EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  52  77  54 /  70  10  10   0
ALW  73  56  78  59 /  70  10  10   0
PSC  76  56  81  55 /  70  10  10   0
YKM  72  48  73  47 /  40  10  10  10
HRI  76  53  80  55 /  70  10  10   0
ELN  68  50  74  50 /  50  10  20  20
RDM  65  40  77  42 /  60  10  10   0
LGD  66  46  78  47 /  60  10  10   0
GCD  67  37  81  39 /  50  10  10   0
DLS  73  56  80  60 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78/83/83



000
FXUS66 KPDT 301000
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BAROCLINIC BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING A GENERAL
LIGHT RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER VORT MAX AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18Z TO 00Z TODAY FOR THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS EASTWARD TO THE IDAHO BORDER. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL BUT THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE STRONG. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING EXCEPT NEAR THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST...ELSEWHERE
JUST A FEW FEW CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S LOWLANDS WITH 30S TO LOWER 40S
MOUNTAINS. 78

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY..AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR MOST
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND GIVE US CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER.
TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE EVENING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES BUT OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHICH WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY.
ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE CASCADES, THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY
SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE OCHOCO-JOHN HIGHLANDS TO WALLOWA COUNTY. BY FRIDAY
THE TROUGH SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH  AND ON SATURDAY A LITTLE TO THE
EAST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES, THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY
EACH DAY. ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVING TO THE
ROCKIES AND OUT OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
MAINLY 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S
WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL 08Z WHEN A STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SPREADS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CREATING AREAS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING WITH KDLS AND KYKM.
AROUND 10Z AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN AROUND TAF SITES
KPSC...KPDT...KALW...KRDM...AND KBDN ESPECIALLY IN RAIN SHOWERS.
AFTER 02Z THE CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS
FROM WEST TO EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  52  77  54 /  70  10  10   0
ALW  73  56  78  59 /  70  10  10   0
PSC  76  56  81  55 /  70  10  10   0
YKM  72  48  73  47 /  40  10  10  10
HRI  76  53  80  55 /  70  10  10   0
ELN  68  50  74  50 /  50  10  20  20
RDM  65  40  77  42 /  60  10  10   0
LGD  66  46  78  47 /  60  10  10   0
GCD  67  37  81  39 /  50  10  10   0
DLS  73  56  80  60 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78/83/83




000
FXUS65 KBOI 300925
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
325 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BANNER SUMMIT TO CENTRAL OWYHEE COUNTY AT 3 AM
WILL PUSH EAST AND EXIT THE MAGIC VALLEY/CAMAS PRAIRIE BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NE OREGON
THROUGH NOON...SW IDAHO THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND THE EASTERN
PAYETTE FOREST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. SO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT
BRINGS PRECIP FROM THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING...TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN 8-18
DEGREES TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS MONDAY THEN
REBOUND BY 2-5 OVER IDAHO AND 6-12 OVER OREGON AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
RISE ON WSW FLOW ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT AS COLD AS LAST
SATURDAY MORNING /22 AUG/ WHEN BURNS OREGON GOT DOWN TO FREEZING
WHILE MOST OF THE AG VALLEY LOWS WERE IN THE 50S. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THROUGHOUT THE AREA LATE EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS NE OREGON
AND CENTRAL IDAHO ESPECIALLY NEAR ONGOING FIRES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A COOLING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS AGREE
ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING SOUTHWARD OVER THE COAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THEN MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF OUR AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF A KBKE-KMYL
LINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER BAKER
COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF KBOI AND
SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...WEST 5-15
KTS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 03Z. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP
TO 25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 300925
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
325 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BANNER SUMMIT TO CENTRAL OWYHEE COUNTY AT 3 AM
WILL PUSH EAST AND EXIT THE MAGIC VALLEY/CAMAS PRAIRIE BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NE OREGON
THROUGH NOON...SW IDAHO THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND THE EASTERN
PAYETTE FOREST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. SO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT
BRINGS PRECIP FROM THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING...TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN 8-18
DEGREES TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS MONDAY THEN
REBOUND BY 2-5 OVER IDAHO AND 6-12 OVER OREGON AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
RISE ON WSW FLOW ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT AS COLD AS LAST
SATURDAY MORNING /22 AUG/ WHEN BURNS OREGON GOT DOWN TO FREEZING
WHILE MOST OF THE AG VALLEY LOWS WERE IN THE 50S. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THROUGHOUT THE AREA LATE EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS NE OREGON
AND CENTRAL IDAHO ESPECIALLY NEAR ONGOING FIRES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A COOLING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS AGREE
ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING SOUTHWARD OVER THE COAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THEN MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF OUR AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF A KBKE-KMYL
LINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER BAKER
COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF KBOI AND
SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...WEST 5-15
KTS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 03Z. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP
TO 25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 300925
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
325 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BANNER SUMMIT TO CENTRAL OWYHEE COUNTY AT 3 AM
WILL PUSH EAST AND EXIT THE MAGIC VALLEY/CAMAS PRAIRIE BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NE OREGON
THROUGH NOON...SW IDAHO THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND THE EASTERN
PAYETTE FOREST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. SO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT
BRINGS PRECIP FROM THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING...TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN 8-18
DEGREES TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS MONDAY THEN
REBOUND BY 2-5 OVER IDAHO AND 6-12 OVER OREGON AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
RISE ON WSW FLOW ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT AS COLD AS LAST
SATURDAY MORNING /22 AUG/ WHEN BURNS OREGON GOT DOWN TO FREEZING
WHILE MOST OF THE AG VALLEY LOWS WERE IN THE 50S. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THROUGHOUT THE AREA LATE EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS NE OREGON
AND CENTRAL IDAHO ESPECIALLY NEAR ONGOING FIRES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A COOLING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS AGREE
ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING SOUTHWARD OVER THE COAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THEN MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF OUR AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF A KBKE-KMYL
LINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER BAKER
COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF KBOI AND
SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...WEST 5-15
KTS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 03Z. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP
TO 25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300815 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
115 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED MARINE AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS NEAR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE
CASCADES TO THE COASTAL RANGES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...GENERAL
BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH
TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING, THEN THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
-WRIGHT/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02



000
FXUS66 KMFR 300815 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
115 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED MARINE AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS NEAR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE
CASCADES TO THE COASTAL RANGES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...GENERAL
BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH
TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING, THEN THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
-WRIGHT/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02



000
FXUS66 KMFR 300815 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
115 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED MARINE AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS NEAR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE
CASCADES TO THE COASTAL RANGES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...GENERAL
BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH
TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING, THEN THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
-WRIGHT/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02



000
FXUS66 KMFR 300815 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
115 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED MARINE AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS NEAR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE
CASCADES TO THE COASTAL RANGES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...GENERAL
BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH
TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING, THEN THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
-WRIGHT/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02



000
FXUS66 KMFR 300809
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
109 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS NEAR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE
CASCADES TO THE COASTAL RANGES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1010 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02



000
FXUS66 KMFR 300809
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
109 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS NEAR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE
CASCADES TO THE COASTAL RANGES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1010 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300809
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
109 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS NEAR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE
CASCADES TO THE COASTAL RANGES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1010 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02




000
FXUS66 KPDT 300550 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1048 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS WERE LINGERING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING INTO THE PACNW AND SPREADING SHOWERS
TO THE WA/OR CASCADES. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INLAND THE SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THEREFORE THE ZONES WERE UPDATED
TO SPREAD THESE SHOWERS FURTHER EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE BASIN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE WINDS HAD DECREASED ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE WIND/DUST STORM ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
ALONG WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING. ALSO MINOR UPDATES WERE COMPLETED
TO THE SKY CONDITIONS AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL 08Z
WHEN A STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SPREADS CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS CREATING AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES
BEGINNING WITH KDLS AND KYKM. AROUND 10Z AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN AROUND TAF SITES KPSC...KPDT...KALW...KRDM...AND BDN
ESPECIALLY IN RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER 02Z THE CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
MIXED WITH SMOKE CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE BASIN. THUS WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT WIND AND BLOWING DUST
ADVISORIES TO RUN UNTIL 6 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES, ESPECIALLY IN WASHINGTON, AND OVER
SOME OF OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THE EVENING. STILL MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY UNTIL
SUNSET. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A DECENT PRECIP PRODUCER AND
HAVE GONE WITH A WIDE SWATH OF 60-70 PERCENT POPS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY, THOUGH PRECIP SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
CHANCES OF BLOWING DUST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR STRAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL REEVALUTE THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AT TIMES OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY, COOL AND LOCALLY BREEZY. 90

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF
OREGON...SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  72  51  78 /  10  60  10  10
ALW  61  74  56  78 /  10  60  10  10
PSC  59  77  55  82 /  20  60  10  10
YKM  53  70  49  74 /  50  40  10  10
HRI  57  76  52  81 /  10  60  10  10
ELN  53  71  51  75 /  60  40  10  20
RDM  49  68  39  77 /  20  60  10  10
LGD  48  68  45  77 /  20  50  10  10
GCD  46  71  42  78 /  20  40  10  10
DLS  60  75  56  79 /  60  60  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97




000
FXUS66 KPDT 300550 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1048 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS WERE LINGERING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING INTO THE PACNW AND SPREADING SHOWERS
TO THE WA/OR CASCADES. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INLAND THE SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THEREFORE THE ZONES WERE UPDATED
TO SPREAD THESE SHOWERS FURTHER EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE BASIN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE WINDS HAD DECREASED ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE WIND/DUST STORM ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
ALONG WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING. ALSO MINOR UPDATES WERE COMPLETED
TO THE SKY CONDITIONS AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL 08Z
WHEN A STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SPREADS CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS CREATING AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES
BEGINNING WITH KDLS AND KYKM. AROUND 10Z AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN AROUND TAF SITES KPSC...KPDT...KALW...KRDM...AND BDN
ESPECIALLY IN RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER 02Z THE CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
MIXED WITH SMOKE CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE BASIN. THUS WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT WIND AND BLOWING DUST
ADVISORIES TO RUN UNTIL 6 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES, ESPECIALLY IN WASHINGTON, AND OVER
SOME OF OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THE EVENING. STILL MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY UNTIL
SUNSET. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A DECENT PRECIP PRODUCER AND
HAVE GONE WITH A WIDE SWATH OF 60-70 PERCENT POPS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY, THOUGH PRECIP SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
CHANCES OF BLOWING DUST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR STRAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL REEVALUTE THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AT TIMES OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY, COOL AND LOCALLY BREEZY. 90

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF
OREGON...SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  72  51  78 /  10  60  10  10
ALW  61  74  56  78 /  10  60  10  10
PSC  59  77  55  82 /  20  60  10  10
YKM  53  70  49  74 /  50  40  10  10
HRI  57  76  52  81 /  10  60  10  10
ELN  53  71  51  75 /  60  40  10  20
RDM  49  68  39  77 /  20  60  10  10
LGD  48  68  45  77 /  20  50  10  10
GCD  46  71  42  78 /  20  40  10  10
DLS  60  75  56  79 /  60  60  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97



000
FXUS66 KPQR 300423
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015


.SYNOPSIS...A BAND OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL STALL OVER WASHINGTON AND BRING A THREAT
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO MAINLY OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY. THE
SHOWERY WEATHER SHOULD THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD MIDWEEK AND MAINTAIN
NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.


&&


.EVENING UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND CURRENTLY RESIDES
NEAR 130W OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. A LOW LEVEL FRONT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ONTO THE OREGON COAST WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURRING EARLIER THIS EVENING AT ASTORIA AND TILLAMOOK. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AS IT
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...GENERALLY BRINGING
ANOTHER QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...LOCALLY MORE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS EASTERN LANE AND LINN COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH BEFORE FALLING APART SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS CONTINUE ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL EASE CONSIDERABLY UPON FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS SHOULD HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY INCREASING RIGHT AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...BUT OVERALL WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW 30 MPH GOING
FORWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

AN EXAMINATION OF INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PLENTY OF COLD
AIR CUMULUS WITH CLOUD TOPS REACHING -35C CURRENTLY NEAR 130W. THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION IS TIED TO THE -21C TO -23C 500MB ISOTHERMS. WHILE
THE COLDEST 500MB AIR WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE CLIPPED BY ENOUGH -21C TO -22C
500MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO AT LEAST MENTION THUNDER AS A POSSIBILITY
NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING BETWEEN SEASIDE AND SCAPPOOSE SUNDAY
MORNING. A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
LIMIT THE DEPTH OF INSTABILITY AND GRADUALLY RESULT IN DECREASING
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA MONDAY AND PUSH ANOTHER FRONT
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL DYANMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM STAY IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LOSE STEAM
AND STALL OVER NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON ON MONDAY. NONETHELESS...IT
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND CERTAINLY MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES ON MONDAY.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE A THIRD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER VERY
NORTHERN ALASKA AND THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER GOOD
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DECENT
PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THE TIMING VARIES A BIT. THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING IT MAY DRY OUT AND START TO WARM UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND.
TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT MOVING ONSHORE CURRENTLY BRINGING
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY TO THE COAST UNDER MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BANDS. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TOWARDS MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS
OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. COASTAL CONDITIONS
LOOK TO IMPROVE TOWARDS VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MAY SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY AT INTERIOR TAF SITES UNDER
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WILL ALSO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE UPCOMING TAF PACKAGE.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO
SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT. /64


&&


.MARINE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT STORM AND GALE
FORCE WINDS TO OUR WATERS TODAY HAS MOVED NORTH OF OUR AREA
ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND
25 KT SO WILL LET THE GALE WARNING EXPIRE AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE INNER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS EASE FURTHER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK DUE TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 11 TO 13 FT SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS FALL TO
AROUND 8 TO 9 FT LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO A SWELL BEING GENERATED IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. /64


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT SUNDAY...AND FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM PDT SUNDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 300423
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015


.SYNOPSIS...A BAND OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL STALL OVER WASHINGTON AND BRING A THREAT
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO MAINLY OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY. THE
SHOWERY WEATHER SHOULD THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD MIDWEEK AND MAINTAIN
NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.


&&


.EVENING UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND CURRENTLY RESIDES
NEAR 130W OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. A LOW LEVEL FRONT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ONTO THE OREGON COAST WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURRING EARLIER THIS EVENING AT ASTORIA AND TILLAMOOK. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AS IT
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...GENERALLY BRINGING
ANOTHER QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...LOCALLY MORE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS EASTERN LANE AND LINN COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH BEFORE FALLING APART SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS CONTINUE ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL EASE CONSIDERABLY UPON FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS SHOULD HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY INCREASING RIGHT AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...BUT OVERALL WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW 30 MPH GOING
FORWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

AN EXAMINATION OF INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PLENTY OF COLD
AIR CUMULUS WITH CLOUD TOPS REACHING -35C CURRENTLY NEAR 130W. THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION IS TIED TO THE -21C TO -23C 500MB ISOTHERMS. WHILE
THE COLDEST 500MB AIR WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE CLIPPED BY ENOUGH -21C TO -22C
500MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO AT LEAST MENTION THUNDER AS A POSSIBILITY
NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING BETWEEN SEASIDE AND SCAPPOOSE SUNDAY
MORNING. A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
LIMIT THE DEPTH OF INSTABILITY AND GRADUALLY RESULT IN DECREASING
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA MONDAY AND PUSH ANOTHER FRONT
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL DYANMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM STAY IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LOSE STEAM
AND STALL OVER NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON ON MONDAY. NONETHELESS...IT
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND CERTAINLY MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES ON MONDAY.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE A THIRD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER VERY
NORTHERN ALASKA AND THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER GOOD
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DECENT
PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THE TIMING VARIES A BIT. THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING IT MAY DRY OUT AND START TO WARM UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND.
TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT MOVING ONSHORE CURRENTLY BRINGING
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY TO THE COAST UNDER MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BANDS. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TOWARDS MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS
OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. COASTAL CONDITIONS
LOOK TO IMPROVE TOWARDS VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MAY SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY AT INTERIOR TAF SITES UNDER
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WILL ALSO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE UPCOMING TAF PACKAGE.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO
SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT. /64


&&


.MARINE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT STORM AND GALE
FORCE WINDS TO OUR WATERS TODAY HAS MOVED NORTH OF OUR AREA
ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND
25 KT SO WILL LET THE GALE WARNING EXPIRE AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE INNER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS EASE FURTHER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK DUE TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 11 TO 13 FT SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS FALL TO
AROUND 8 TO 9 FT LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO A SWELL BEING GENERATED IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. /64


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT SUNDAY...AND FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM PDT SUNDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 300423
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015


.SYNOPSIS...A BAND OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL STALL OVER WASHINGTON AND BRING A THREAT
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO MAINLY OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY. THE
SHOWERY WEATHER SHOULD THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD MIDWEEK AND MAINTAIN
NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.


&&


.EVENING UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND CURRENTLY RESIDES
NEAR 130W OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. A LOW LEVEL FRONT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ONTO THE OREGON COAST WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURRING EARLIER THIS EVENING AT ASTORIA AND TILLAMOOK. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AS IT
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...GENERALLY BRINGING
ANOTHER QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...LOCALLY MORE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS EASTERN LANE AND LINN COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH BEFORE FALLING APART SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS CONTINUE ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL EASE CONSIDERABLY UPON FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS SHOULD HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY INCREASING RIGHT AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...BUT OVERALL WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW 30 MPH GOING
FORWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

AN EXAMINATION OF INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PLENTY OF COLD
AIR CUMULUS WITH CLOUD TOPS REACHING -35C CURRENTLY NEAR 130W. THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION IS TIED TO THE -21C TO -23C 500MB ISOTHERMS. WHILE
THE COLDEST 500MB AIR WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE CLIPPED BY ENOUGH -21C TO -22C
500MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO AT LEAST MENTION THUNDER AS A POSSIBILITY
NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING BETWEEN SEASIDE AND SCAPPOOSE SUNDAY
MORNING. A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
LIMIT THE DEPTH OF INSTABILITY AND GRADUALLY RESULT IN DECREASING
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA MONDAY AND PUSH ANOTHER FRONT
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL DYANMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM STAY IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LOSE STEAM
AND STALL OVER NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON ON MONDAY. NONETHELESS...IT
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND CERTAINLY MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES ON MONDAY.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE A THIRD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER VERY
NORTHERN ALASKA AND THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER GOOD
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DECENT
PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THE TIMING VARIES A BIT. THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING IT MAY DRY OUT AND START TO WARM UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND.
TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT MOVING ONSHORE CURRENTLY BRINGING
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY TO THE COAST UNDER MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BANDS. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TOWARDS MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS
OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. COASTAL CONDITIONS
LOOK TO IMPROVE TOWARDS VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MAY SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY AT INTERIOR TAF SITES UNDER
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WILL ALSO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE UPCOMING TAF PACKAGE.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO
SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT. /64


&&


.MARINE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT STORM AND GALE
FORCE WINDS TO OUR WATERS TODAY HAS MOVED NORTH OF OUR AREA
ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND
25 KT SO WILL LET THE GALE WARNING EXPIRE AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE INNER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS EASE FURTHER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK DUE TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 11 TO 13 FT SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS FALL TO
AROUND 8 TO 9 FT LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO A SWELL BEING GENERATED IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. /64


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT SUNDAY...AND FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM PDT SUNDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 300423
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015


.SYNOPSIS...A BAND OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL STALL OVER WASHINGTON AND BRING A THREAT
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO MAINLY OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY. THE
SHOWERY WEATHER SHOULD THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD MIDWEEK AND MAINTAIN
NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.


&&


.EVENING UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND CURRENTLY RESIDES
NEAR 130W OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. A LOW LEVEL FRONT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ONTO THE OREGON COAST WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURRING EARLIER THIS EVENING AT ASTORIA AND TILLAMOOK. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AS IT
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...GENERALLY BRINGING
ANOTHER QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...LOCALLY MORE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS EASTERN LANE AND LINN COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH BEFORE FALLING APART SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS CONTINUE ALONG THE
BEACHES AND HEADLANDS OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL EASE CONSIDERABLY UPON FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS SHOULD HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY INCREASING RIGHT AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...BUT OVERALL WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW 30 MPH GOING
FORWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

AN EXAMINATION OF INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PLENTY OF COLD
AIR CUMULUS WITH CLOUD TOPS REACHING -35C CURRENTLY NEAR 130W. THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION IS TIED TO THE -21C TO -23C 500MB ISOTHERMS. WHILE
THE COLDEST 500MB AIR WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE CLIPPED BY ENOUGH -21C TO -22C
500MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO AT LEAST MENTION THUNDER AS A POSSIBILITY
NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING BETWEEN SEASIDE AND SCAPPOOSE SUNDAY
MORNING. A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
LIMIT THE DEPTH OF INSTABILITY AND GRADUALLY RESULT IN DECREASING
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA MONDAY AND PUSH ANOTHER FRONT
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL DYANMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM STAY IN BRITISH COLUMBIA...THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LOSE STEAM
AND STALL OVER NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON ON MONDAY. NONETHELESS...IT
WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND CERTAINLY MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES ON MONDAY.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE A THIRD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER VERY
NORTHERN ALASKA AND THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER GOOD
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DECENT
PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THE TIMING VARIES A BIT. THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING IT MAY DRY OUT AND START TO WARM UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND.
TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT MOVING ONSHORE CURRENTLY BRINGING
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY TO THE COAST UNDER MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BANDS. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TOWARDS MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS
OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. COASTAL CONDITIONS
LOOK TO IMPROVE TOWARDS VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MAY SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY AT INTERIOR TAF SITES UNDER
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WILL ALSO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE UPCOMING TAF PACKAGE.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO
SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT. /64


&&


.MARINE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT STORM AND GALE
FORCE WINDS TO OUR WATERS TODAY HAS MOVED NORTH OF OUR AREA
ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND
25 KT SO WILL LET THE GALE WARNING EXPIRE AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE INNER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS EASE FURTHER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK DUE TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 11 TO 13 FT SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS FALL TO
AROUND 8 TO 9 FT LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO A SWELL BEING GENERATED IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. /64


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT SUNDAY...AND FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM PDT SUNDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 300417
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
917 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ONTO THE
COAST AT THIS TIME AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CYCLES THROUGH THE REGION.
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH THE SYSTEM MOSTLY WASHING OUT ON THE WEST SIDE BEFORE
DISSIPATING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE
THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ THE
SURFACE LOW, WHICH TRACKED A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DIMINISH, BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL KEEP BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING
ALONG THE COAST, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN
SHOULD MAKE IT FAR INLAND.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND AND RAIN TO THE COAST AND WEST SIDE, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE
EXTENT AS SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH AT
THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGES, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH FOR THE
REST OF THE WEST SIDE. AGAIN, VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP AREA
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
AB IT WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE NEW THINKING. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE EVENT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE REGION UNDER WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE CONSIDERED A FALL
PATTERN. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM. THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY
PARTICULAR WAVE THAT WOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE KEPT MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED DRY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATTERN, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LATE WEEK TROUGH IS RESOLVED BY THE MODELS IN LATER
RUNS. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE... MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS
NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES WITH NEAR
TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND
COAST RANGE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 615 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BTL

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST
2015...GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300417
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
917 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ONTO THE
COAST AT THIS TIME AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CYCLES THROUGH THE REGION.
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH THE SYSTEM MOSTLY WASHING OUT ON THE WEST SIDE BEFORE
DISSIPATING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE
THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ THE
SURFACE LOW, WHICH TRACKED A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DIMINISH, BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL KEEP BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING
ALONG THE COAST, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN
SHOULD MAKE IT FAR INLAND.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND AND RAIN TO THE COAST AND WEST SIDE, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE
EXTENT AS SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH AT
THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGES, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH FOR THE
REST OF THE WEST SIDE. AGAIN, VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP AREA
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
AB IT WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE NEW THINKING. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE EVENT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE REGION UNDER WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE CONSIDERED A FALL
PATTERN. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM. THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY
PARTICULAR WAVE THAT WOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE KEPT MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED DRY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATTERN, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LATE WEEK TROUGH IS RESOLVED BY THE MODELS IN LATER
RUNS. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE... MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS
NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES WITH NEAR
TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND
COAST RANGE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 615 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BTL

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST
2015...GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 300417
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
917 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ONTO THE
COAST AT THIS TIME AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CYCLES THROUGH THE REGION.
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH THE SYSTEM MOSTLY WASHING OUT ON THE WEST SIDE BEFORE
DISSIPATING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE
THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ THE
SURFACE LOW, WHICH TRACKED A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DIMINISH, BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL KEEP BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING
ALONG THE COAST, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN
SHOULD MAKE IT FAR INLAND.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND AND RAIN TO THE COAST AND WEST SIDE, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE
EXTENT AS SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH AT
THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGES, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH FOR THE
REST OF THE WEST SIDE. AGAIN, VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP AREA
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
AB IT WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE NEW THINKING. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE EVENT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE REGION UNDER WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE CONSIDERED A FALL
PATTERN. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM. THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY
PARTICULAR WAVE THAT WOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE KEPT MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED DRY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATTERN, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LATE WEEK TROUGH IS RESOLVED BY THE MODELS IN LATER
RUNS. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE... MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS
NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES WITH NEAR
TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND
COAST RANGE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 615 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BTL

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST
2015...GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 300417
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
917 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ONTO THE
COAST AT THIS TIME AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CYCLES THROUGH THE REGION.
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH THE SYSTEM MOSTLY WASHING OUT ON THE WEST SIDE BEFORE
DISSIPATING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE
THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ THE
SURFACE LOW, WHICH TRACKED A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DIMINISH, BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL KEEP BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING
ALONG THE COAST, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN
SHOULD MAKE IT FAR INLAND.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND AND RAIN TO THE COAST AND WEST SIDE, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE
EXTENT AS SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH AT
THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGES, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH FOR THE
REST OF THE WEST SIDE. AGAIN, VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP AREA
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
AB IT WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE NEW THINKING. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE EVENT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE REGION UNDER WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE CONSIDERED A FALL
PATTERN. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM. THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY
PARTICULAR WAVE THAT WOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE KEPT MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED DRY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATTERN, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LATE WEEK TROUGH IS RESOLVED BY THE MODELS IN LATER
RUNS. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE... MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS
NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES WITH NEAR
TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND
COAST RANGE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 615 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BTL

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST
2015...GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 300417
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
917 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ONTO THE
COAST AT THIS TIME AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CYCLES THROUGH THE REGION.
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH THE SYSTEM MOSTLY WASHING OUT ON THE WEST SIDE BEFORE
DISSIPATING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE
THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ THE
SURFACE LOW, WHICH TRACKED A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DIMINISH, BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL KEEP BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING
ALONG THE COAST, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN
SHOULD MAKE IT FAR INLAND.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND AND RAIN TO THE COAST AND WEST SIDE, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE
EXTENT AS SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH AT
THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGES, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH FOR THE
REST OF THE WEST SIDE. AGAIN, VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP AREA
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
AB IT WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE NEW THINKING. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE EVENT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE REGION UNDER WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE CONSIDERED A FALL
PATTERN. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM. THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY
PARTICULAR WAVE THAT WOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE KEPT MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED DRY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATTERN, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LATE WEEK TROUGH IS RESOLVED BY THE MODELS IN LATER
RUNS. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE... MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS
NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES WITH NEAR
TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND
COAST RANGE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 615 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BTL

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST
2015...GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 300417
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
917 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ONTO THE
COAST AT THIS TIME AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CYCLES THROUGH THE REGION.
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH THE SYSTEM MOSTLY WASHING OUT ON THE WEST SIDE BEFORE
DISSIPATING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE
THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ THE
SURFACE LOW, WHICH TRACKED A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DIMINISH, BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL KEEP BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING
ALONG THE COAST, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN
SHOULD MAKE IT FAR INLAND.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND AND RAIN TO THE COAST AND WEST SIDE, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE
EXTENT AS SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH AT
THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGES, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH FOR THE
REST OF THE WEST SIDE. AGAIN, VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP AREA
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
AB IT WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE NEW THINKING. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE EVENT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE REGION UNDER WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE CONSIDERED A FALL
PATTERN. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM. THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY
PARTICULAR WAVE THAT WOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE KEPT MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED DRY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATTERN, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LATE WEEK TROUGH IS RESOLVED BY THE MODELS IN LATER
RUNS. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE... MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS
NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES WITH NEAR
TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND
COAST RANGE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 615 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BTL

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST
2015...GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW



000
FXUS65 KBOI 300323
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
923 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT HAS LOST ITS DEFINITION THIS EVENING.
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME...AREAS
IN OREGON CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO WEAKEN AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THIS EVENING AS SURFACE DECOUPLES FROM FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING WILL FOCUS
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ID MTNS AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN /MTN HOME
EASTWARD/ IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. HAVE MADE
UPDATES FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING TO LOWER POPS TO THE WEST AND
INCREASED POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL ID ZONES FOR OVERNIGHT. ALSO
INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF KBKE-KMYL. LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER TREASURE AND MAGIC
VALLEYS...AND OVER THE BLUE AND WEST CENTRAL MNTS...SHOULD TAPER OFF
BY 30/06Z. CHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE/WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MNTS
AGAIN AFTER 30/15Z...SHOULD END BY 31/03Z. SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY
12 KTS OR LESS. EXPECTS GUSTS 17-22 KTS OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY
30/17Z...SHOULD COME BACK DOWN BY 31/03Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW 20-45 KTS BECOMING SW 20-30 KTS BY 30/06Z AND W 20-30 KTS
BEFORE 31/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NERN
CORNER OF OREGON...SWD THROUGH ERN BAKER COUNTY...THEN SSWWD
THROUGH MALHEUR COUNTY.  KCBX RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT IN BAKER COUNTY AND NRN-MOST MALHEUR COUNTY.  HIGH
ELEVATIONS IN OREGON HAVE TAPPED INTO VERY STRONG SWLY WINDS AT
700 MB.  EVEN LOWER ELEVATION SITES LIKE BURNS AND ROME HAVE
REPORTED SUSTAINED SW WINDS 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  FRONT
WILL REACH ONTARIO/OR AROUND 5 PM MDT...BOISE BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM
MDT...MOUNTAIN HOME 8 PM MDT...JEROME/TWIN FALLS 10 PM MDT.
EXPECT WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE SNAKE
BASIN DURING FROPA THEN DIMINISHING.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWERS CONTINUING A COUPLE HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT.  COOLER TONIGHT BUT WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  MUCH COOLER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
BUT ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.  UPPER TROUGH
WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS IN NRN ZONES...GENERALLY
NORTH OF 44N.  THE SHOWERS WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS NEAR 60 IN NRN
AREAS.  HIGHS IN THE SNAKE BASIN WILL BE 75 TO 82.  WITH SKIES
CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REALLY DROP...LOWS MONDAY MORNING
IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 IN THE VALLEYS.  BUT
MONDAY WILL END UP SUNNY AND WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OUT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE
AHEAD OF REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS
AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND STARTING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 300323
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
923 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT HAS LOST ITS DEFINITION THIS EVENING.
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME...AREAS
IN OREGON CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO WEAKEN AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THIS EVENING AS SURFACE DECOUPLES FROM FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING WILL FOCUS
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ID MTNS AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN /MTN HOME
EASTWARD/ IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. HAVE MADE
UPDATES FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING TO LOWER POPS TO THE WEST AND
INCREASED POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL ID ZONES FOR OVERNIGHT. ALSO
INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF KBKE-KMYL. LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER TREASURE AND MAGIC
VALLEYS...AND OVER THE BLUE AND WEST CENTRAL MNTS...SHOULD TAPER OFF
BY 30/06Z. CHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE/WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MNTS
AGAIN AFTER 30/15Z...SHOULD END BY 31/03Z. SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY
12 KTS OR LESS. EXPECTS GUSTS 17-22 KTS OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY
30/17Z...SHOULD COME BACK DOWN BY 31/03Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW 20-45 KTS BECOMING SW 20-30 KTS BY 30/06Z AND W 20-30 KTS
BEFORE 31/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NERN
CORNER OF OREGON...SWD THROUGH ERN BAKER COUNTY...THEN SSWWD
THROUGH MALHEUR COUNTY.  KCBX RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT IN BAKER COUNTY AND NRN-MOST MALHEUR COUNTY.  HIGH
ELEVATIONS IN OREGON HAVE TAPPED INTO VERY STRONG SWLY WINDS AT
700 MB.  EVEN LOWER ELEVATION SITES LIKE BURNS AND ROME HAVE
REPORTED SUSTAINED SW WINDS 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  FRONT
WILL REACH ONTARIO/OR AROUND 5 PM MDT...BOISE BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM
MDT...MOUNTAIN HOME 8 PM MDT...JEROME/TWIN FALLS 10 PM MDT.
EXPECT WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE SNAKE
BASIN DURING FROPA THEN DIMINISHING.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWERS CONTINUING A COUPLE HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT.  COOLER TONIGHT BUT WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  MUCH COOLER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
BUT ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.  UPPER TROUGH
WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS IN NRN ZONES...GENERALLY
NORTH OF 44N.  THE SHOWERS WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS NEAR 60 IN NRN
AREAS.  HIGHS IN THE SNAKE BASIN WILL BE 75 TO 82.  WITH SKIES
CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REALLY DROP...LOWS MONDAY MORNING
IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 IN THE VALLEYS.  BUT
MONDAY WILL END UP SUNNY AND WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OUT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE
AHEAD OF REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS
AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND STARTING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 300323
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
923 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT HAS LOST ITS DEFINITION THIS EVENING.
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME...AREAS
IN OREGON CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO WEAKEN AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THIS EVENING AS SURFACE DECOUPLES FROM FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING WILL FOCUS
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ID MTNS AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN /MTN HOME
EASTWARD/ IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. HAVE MADE
UPDATES FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING TO LOWER POPS TO THE WEST AND
INCREASED POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL ID ZONES FOR OVERNIGHT. ALSO
INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF KBKE-KMYL. LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER TREASURE AND MAGIC
VALLEYS...AND OVER THE BLUE AND WEST CENTRAL MNTS...SHOULD TAPER OFF
BY 30/06Z. CHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE/WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MNTS
AGAIN AFTER 30/15Z...SHOULD END BY 31/03Z. SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY
12 KTS OR LESS. EXPECTS GUSTS 17-22 KTS OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY
30/17Z...SHOULD COME BACK DOWN BY 31/03Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW 20-45 KTS BECOMING SW 20-30 KTS BY 30/06Z AND W 20-30 KTS
BEFORE 31/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NERN
CORNER OF OREGON...SWD THROUGH ERN BAKER COUNTY...THEN SSWWD
THROUGH MALHEUR COUNTY.  KCBX RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT IN BAKER COUNTY AND NRN-MOST MALHEUR COUNTY.  HIGH
ELEVATIONS IN OREGON HAVE TAPPED INTO VERY STRONG SWLY WINDS AT
700 MB.  EVEN LOWER ELEVATION SITES LIKE BURNS AND ROME HAVE
REPORTED SUSTAINED SW WINDS 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  FRONT
WILL REACH ONTARIO/OR AROUND 5 PM MDT...BOISE BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM
MDT...MOUNTAIN HOME 8 PM MDT...JEROME/TWIN FALLS 10 PM MDT.
EXPECT WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE SNAKE
BASIN DURING FROPA THEN DIMINISHING.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWERS CONTINUING A COUPLE HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT.  COOLER TONIGHT BUT WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  MUCH COOLER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
BUT ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.  UPPER TROUGH
WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS IN NRN ZONES...GENERALLY
NORTH OF 44N.  THE SHOWERS WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS NEAR 60 IN NRN
AREAS.  HIGHS IN THE SNAKE BASIN WILL BE 75 TO 82.  WITH SKIES
CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REALLY DROP...LOWS MONDAY MORNING
IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 IN THE VALLEYS.  BUT
MONDAY WILL END UP SUNNY AND WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OUT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE
AHEAD OF REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS
AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND STARTING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA/JC



000
FXUS66 KPDT 300211 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
700 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS WERE LINGERING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING INTO THE PACNW AND SPREADING SHOWERS
TO THE WA/OR CASCADES. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INLAND THE SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THEREFORE THE ZONES WERE UPDATED
TO SPREAD THESE SHOWERS FURTHER EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE BASIN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE WINDS HAD DECREASED ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE WIND/DUST STORM ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
ALONG WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING. ALSO MINOR UPDATES WERE COMPLETED
TO THE SKY CONDITIONS AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
MIXED WITH SMOKE CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE BASIN. THUS WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT WIND AND BLOWING DUST
ADVISORIES TO RUN UNTIL 6 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES, ESPECIALLY IN WASHINGTON, AND OVER
SOME OF OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THE EVENING. STILL MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY UNTIL
SUNSET. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A DECENT PRECIP PRODUCER AND
HAVE GONE WITH A WIDE SWATH OF 60-70 PERCENT POPS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY, THOUGH PRECIP SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
CHANCES OF BLOWING DUST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR STRAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL REEVALUTE THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AT TIMES OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY, COOL AND LOCALLY BREEZY. 90

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF
OREGON...SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  EARLE

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP
TO MVFR BEHIND A FRONT THROUGH 30/03Z DUE TO SMOKE AND BLOWING DUST.
LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR 2-4 HOURS AT
EACH SITE. WIND WILL BE 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE WIND WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASE
TO 10-20 KTS AFTER 30/14Z.  EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  72  51  78 /  10  60  10  10
ALW  61  74  56  78 /  10  60  10  10
PSC  59  77  55  82 /  20  60  10  10
YKM  53  70  49  74 /  50  40  10  10
HRI  57  76  52  81 /  10  60  10  10
ELN  53  71  51  75 /  60  40  10  20
RDM  49  68  39  77 /  20  60  10  10
LGD  48  68  45  77 /  20  50  10  10
GCD  46  71  42  78 /  20  40  10  10
DLS  60  75  56  79 /  60  60  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 300211 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
700 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS WERE LINGERING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING INTO THE PACNW AND SPREADING SHOWERS
TO THE WA/OR CASCADES. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INLAND THE SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THEREFORE THE ZONES WERE UPDATED
TO SPREAD THESE SHOWERS FURTHER EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE BASIN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE WINDS HAD DECREASED ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE WIND/DUST STORM ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
ALONG WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING. ALSO MINOR UPDATES WERE COMPLETED
TO THE SKY CONDITIONS AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
MIXED WITH SMOKE CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE BASIN. THUS WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT WIND AND BLOWING DUST
ADVISORIES TO RUN UNTIL 6 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES, ESPECIALLY IN WASHINGTON, AND OVER
SOME OF OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THE EVENING. STILL MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY UNTIL
SUNSET. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A DECENT PRECIP PRODUCER AND
HAVE GONE WITH A WIDE SWATH OF 60-70 PERCENT POPS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY, THOUGH PRECIP SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
CHANCES OF BLOWING DUST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR STRAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL REEVALUTE THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AT TIMES OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY, COOL AND LOCALLY BREEZY. 90

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF
OREGON...SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  EARLE

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP
TO MVFR BEHIND A FRONT THROUGH 30/03Z DUE TO SMOKE AND BLOWING DUST.
LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR 2-4 HOURS AT
EACH SITE. WIND WILL BE 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE WIND WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASE
TO 10-20 KTS AFTER 30/14Z.  EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  72  51  78 /  10  60  10  10
ALW  61  74  56  78 /  10  60  10  10
PSC  59  77  55  82 /  20  60  10  10
YKM  53  70  49  74 /  50  40  10  10
HRI  57  76  52  81 /  10  60  10  10
ELN  53  71  51  75 /  60  40  10  20
RDM  49  68  39  77 /  20  60  10  10
LGD  48  68  45  77 /  20  50  10  10
GCD  46  71  42  78 /  20  40  10  10
DLS  60  75  56  79 /  60  60  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 300211 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
700 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS WERE LINGERING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING INTO THE PACNW AND SPREADING SHOWERS
TO THE WA/OR CASCADES. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INLAND THE SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THEREFORE THE ZONES WERE UPDATED
TO SPREAD THESE SHOWERS FURTHER EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE BASIN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE WINDS HAD DECREASED ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE WIND/DUST STORM ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
ALONG WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING. ALSO MINOR UPDATES WERE COMPLETED
TO THE SKY CONDITIONS AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
MIXED WITH SMOKE CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE BASIN. THUS WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT WIND AND BLOWING DUST
ADVISORIES TO RUN UNTIL 6 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES, ESPECIALLY IN WASHINGTON, AND OVER
SOME OF OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THE EVENING. STILL MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY UNTIL
SUNSET. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A DECENT PRECIP PRODUCER AND
HAVE GONE WITH A WIDE SWATH OF 60-70 PERCENT POPS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY, THOUGH PRECIP SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
CHANCES OF BLOWING DUST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR STRAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL REEVALUTE THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AT TIMES OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY, COOL AND LOCALLY BREEZY. 90

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF
OREGON...SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  EARLE

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP
TO MVFR BEHIND A FRONT THROUGH 30/03Z DUE TO SMOKE AND BLOWING DUST.
LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR 2-4 HOURS AT
EACH SITE. WIND WILL BE 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE WIND WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASE
TO 10-20 KTS AFTER 30/14Z.  EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  72  51  78 /  10  60  10  10
ALW  61  74  56  78 /  10  60  10  10
PSC  59  77  55  82 /  20  60  10  10
YKM  53  70  49  74 /  50  40  10  10
HRI  57  76  52  81 /  10  60  10  10
ELN  53  71  51  75 /  60  40  10  20
RDM  49  68  39  77 /  20  60  10  10
LGD  48  68  45  77 /  20  50  10  10
GCD  46  71  42  78 /  20  40  10  10
DLS  60  75  56  79 /  60  60  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 300211 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
700 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS WERE LINGERING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
WHILE A STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING INTO THE PACNW AND SPREADING SHOWERS
TO THE WA/OR CASCADES. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INLAND THE SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THEREFORE THE ZONES WERE UPDATED
TO SPREAD THESE SHOWERS FURTHER EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE BASIN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE WINDS HAD DECREASED ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE WIND/DUST STORM ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
ALONG WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING. ALSO MINOR UPDATES WERE COMPLETED
TO THE SKY CONDITIONS AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
MIXED WITH SMOKE CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE BASIN. THUS WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT WIND AND BLOWING DUST
ADVISORIES TO RUN UNTIL 6 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES, ESPECIALLY IN WASHINGTON, AND OVER
SOME OF OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THE EVENING. STILL MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY UNTIL
SUNSET. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A DECENT PRECIP PRODUCER AND
HAVE GONE WITH A WIDE SWATH OF 60-70 PERCENT POPS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY, THOUGH PRECIP SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
CHANCES OF BLOWING DUST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR STRAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL REEVALUTE THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AT TIMES OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY, COOL AND LOCALLY BREEZY. 90

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF
OREGON...SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  EARLE

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP
TO MVFR BEHIND A FRONT THROUGH 30/03Z DUE TO SMOKE AND BLOWING DUST.
LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR 2-4 HOURS AT
EACH SITE. WIND WILL BE 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE WIND WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASE
TO 10-20 KTS AFTER 30/14Z.  EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  72  51  78 /  10  60  10  10
ALW  61  74  56  78 /  10  60  10  10
PSC  59  77  55  82 /  20  60  10  10
YKM  53  70  49  74 /  50  40  10  10
HRI  57  76  52  81 /  10  60  10  10
ELN  53  71  51  75 /  60  40  10  20
RDM  49  68  39  77 /  20  60  10  10
LGD  48  68  45  77 /  20  50  10  10
GCD  46  71  42  78 /  20  40  10  10
DLS  60  75  56  79 /  60  60  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300120
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
620 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED MARINE, AVIATION, AND HEADLINE SECTIONS

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN
AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES WITH NEAR TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND COAST RANGE. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 615 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
THE SURFACE LOW, WHICH TRACKED A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN
EXPECTED THIS MORNING, HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW
MAKING ITS WAY ONSHORE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND. WINDS HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO DIMINISH, BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL KEEP BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT,
AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT FAR INLAND.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND AND RAIN TO THE COAST AND WEST SIDE, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE
EXTENT AS SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH AT
THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGES, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH FOR THE
REST OF THE WEST SIDE. AGAIN, VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP AREA
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
AB IT WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE NEW THINKING. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE EVENT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE REGION UNDER WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE CONSIDERED A FALL
PATTERN. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM. THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY
PARTICULAR WAVE THAT WOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE KEPT MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED DRY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATTERN, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LATE WEEK TROUGH IS RESOLVED BY THE MODELS IN LATER
RUNS. -BPN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST
2015...GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 300120
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
620 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED MARINE, AVIATION, AND HEADLINE SECTIONS

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN
AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES WITH NEAR TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND COAST RANGE. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 615 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
THE SURFACE LOW, WHICH TRACKED A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN
EXPECTED THIS MORNING, HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW
MAKING ITS WAY ONSHORE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND. WINDS HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO DIMINISH, BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL KEEP BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT,
AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT FAR INLAND.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND AND RAIN TO THE COAST AND WEST SIDE, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE
EXTENT AS SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH AT
THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGES, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH FOR THE
REST OF THE WEST SIDE. AGAIN, VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP AREA
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
AB IT WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE NEW THINKING. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE EVENT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE REGION UNDER WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE CONSIDERED A FALL
PATTERN. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM. THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY
PARTICULAR WAVE THAT WOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE KEPT MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED DRY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATTERN, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LATE WEEK TROUGH IS RESOLVED BY THE MODELS IN LATER
RUNS. -BPN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST
2015...GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW




000
FXUS66 KPDT 292150
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
250 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
MIXED WITH SMOKE CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE BASIN. THUS WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT WIND AND BLOWING DUST
ADVISORIES TO RUN UNTIL 6 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES, ESPECIALLY IN WASHINGTON, AND OVER
SOME OF OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THE EVENING. STILL MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY UNTIL
SUNSET. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A DECENT PRECIP PRODUCER AND
HAVE GONE WITH A WIDE SWATH OF 60-70 PERCENT POPS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY, THOUGH PRECIP SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
CHANCES OF BLOWING DUST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR STRAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL REEVALUTE THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AT TIMES OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY, COOL AND LOCALLY BREEZY. 90

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF
OREGON...SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  EARLE

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP
TO MVFR BEHIND A FRONT THROUGH 30/03Z DUE TO SMOKE AND BLOWING DUST.
LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR 2-4 HOURS AT
EACH SITE. WIND WILL BE 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE WIND WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASE
TO 10-20 KTS AFTER 30/14Z.  EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  72  51  78 /  10  60  10  10
ALW  61  74  56  78 /  10  60  10  10
PSC  59  77  55  82 /  10  60  10  10
YKM  53  70  49  74 /  50  40  10  10
HRI  57  76  52  81 /  10  60  10  10
ELN  53  71  51  75 /  60  40  10  20
RDM  49  68  39  77 /  20  60  10  10
LGD  48  68  45  77 /  20  50  10  10
GCD  46  71  42  78 /  10  40  10  10
DLS  60  75  56  79 /  60  60  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-508-510-
     511.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-
     508.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029-521.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ641-643-645-
     675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/81/81/94



000
FXUS66 KPDT 292150
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
250 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
MIXED WITH SMOKE CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE BASIN. THUS WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT WIND AND BLOWING DUST
ADVISORIES TO RUN UNTIL 6 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES, ESPECIALLY IN WASHINGTON, AND OVER
SOME OF OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THE EVENING. STILL MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY UNTIL
SUNSET. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE A DECENT PRECIP PRODUCER AND
HAVE GONE WITH A WIDE SWATH OF 60-70 PERCENT POPS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY, THOUGH PRECIP SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
CHANCES OF BLOWING DUST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR STRAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL REEVALUTE THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AT TIMES OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY, COOL AND LOCALLY BREEZY. 90

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF
OREGON...SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  EARLE

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP
TO MVFR BEHIND A FRONT THROUGH 30/03Z DUE TO SMOKE AND BLOWING DUST.
LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR 2-4 HOURS AT
EACH SITE. WIND WILL BE 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE WIND WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASE
TO 10-20 KTS AFTER 30/14Z.  EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  72  51  78 /  10  60  10  10
ALW  61  74  56  78 /  10  60  10  10
PSC  59  77  55  82 /  10  60  10  10
YKM  53  70  49  74 /  50  40  10  10
HRI  57  76  52  81 /  10  60  10  10
ELN  53  71  51  75 /  60  40  10  20
RDM  49  68  39  77 /  20  60  10  10
LGD  48  68  45  77 /  20  50  10  10
GCD  46  71  42  78 /  10  40  10  10
DLS  60  75  56  79 /  60  60  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-508-510-
     511.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-
     508.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029-521.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ641-643-645-
     675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/81/81/94




000
FXUS66 KPQR 292148
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE STRONG LOW THAT BROUGHT HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND
WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND TODAY HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SLOWLY
SUBSIDING WINDS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AND
MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THERE WILL EVEN BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. ONSHORE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK...KEEPING THINGS COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG LOW THAT PRODUCED HIGH WINDS ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE COAST RANGE TODAY AND WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND HAS NOW
MOVED WELL NORTH INTO NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN B.C.  WINDS
IN OUR AREA ARE TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND HAVE BEEN
DROPPING THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS APPROPRIATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PEAK WIND VALUES ACROSS THE AREA...AND THEY WERE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE.
THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER THE COAST RANGE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THAT WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES AT TIME THIS BUT LESS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONT...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST. THE NORTH PART OF THIS FRONT
IS MERGING WITH THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION OF THE STRONG LOW THAT MOVED
NORTH EARLIER TODAY. THERE IS A LIGHTNING STRIKE ALONG THIS FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...WEST OF ASTORIA. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND SPREAD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS INDICATED
ABOVE...THIS FRONT IS SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...AND THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH IT ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
NORTH INTERIOR ZONES AGAIN. THERE IS SOME WIND WITH IT... ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST...BUT NOT AS WINDY AS TODAY. LOOK FOR GUSTS TO AROUND
40 MPH AT THE NORMALLY WINDIER EXPOSED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ONSHORE FLOW WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS ON
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY THE MODELS AGREE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP IN
FROM THE NORTH AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN AGAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DECENT PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING
THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...BUT THE TIMING VARIES A BIT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING IT
MAY DRY OUT AND START TO WARM UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR ALONG THE COAST...MOSTLY VFR INLAND.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST TO 25 KT AT COASTAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN WINDS DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT. INLAND...VFR CIGS MAY DROP TO
MVFR WITH RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING... IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH THIS FRONT
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
INCREASE AGAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 20 TO 25 KT THEN WILL DROP
TO AROUND 10 KT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. S WINDS
DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE BACK UP TO
20 TO 25 KT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR. BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REMAIN VFR
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. -MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS AROUND
20 TO 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO 15 TO 20
KT GUSTING TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FROM THE SSW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY UP AT 15 TO 18
FT WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING TO 10 TO 12 FT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
MAY CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THEY
DROP BELOW 20 KT AROUND MIDDAY. SEAS WILL DROP TO AROUND 8 TO 9 FT BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

SWELL BEING GENERATED FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL KEEP SEAS UP AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
WINDS REMAIN SSW-ERLY UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS...VEERING WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. -MCCOY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 292148
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE STRONG LOW THAT BROUGHT HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND
WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND TODAY HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SLOWLY
SUBSIDING WINDS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AND
MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THERE WILL EVEN BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. ONSHORE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK...KEEPING THINGS COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG LOW THAT PRODUCED HIGH WINDS ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE COAST RANGE TODAY AND WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND HAS NOW
MOVED WELL NORTH INTO NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN B.C.  WINDS
IN OUR AREA ARE TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND HAVE BEEN
DROPPING THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS APPROPRIATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PEAK WIND VALUES ACROSS THE AREA...AND THEY WERE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE.
THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER THE COAST RANGE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THAT WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES AT TIME THIS BUT LESS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONT...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST. THE NORTH PART OF THIS FRONT
IS MERGING WITH THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION OF THE STRONG LOW THAT MOVED
NORTH EARLIER TODAY. THERE IS A LIGHTNING STRIKE ALONG THIS FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...WEST OF ASTORIA. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND SPREAD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS INDICATED
ABOVE...THIS FRONT IS SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...AND THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH IT ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
NORTH INTERIOR ZONES AGAIN. THERE IS SOME WIND WITH IT... ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST...BUT NOT AS WINDY AS TODAY. LOOK FOR GUSTS TO AROUND
40 MPH AT THE NORMALLY WINDIER EXPOSED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ONSHORE FLOW WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS ON
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY THE MODELS AGREE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP IN
FROM THE NORTH AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN AGAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DECENT PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING
THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...BUT THE TIMING VARIES A BIT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING IT
MAY DRY OUT AND START TO WARM UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR ALONG THE COAST...MOSTLY VFR INLAND.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST TO 25 KT AT COASTAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN WINDS DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT. INLAND...VFR CIGS MAY DROP TO
MVFR WITH RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING... IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH THIS FRONT
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
INCREASE AGAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 20 TO 25 KT THEN WILL DROP
TO AROUND 10 KT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. S WINDS
DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE BACK UP TO
20 TO 25 KT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR. BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REMAIN VFR
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. -MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS AROUND
20 TO 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO 15 TO 20
KT GUSTING TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FROM THE SSW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY UP AT 15 TO 18
FT WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING TO 10 TO 12 FT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
MAY CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THEY
DROP BELOW 20 KT AROUND MIDDAY. SEAS WILL DROP TO AROUND 8 TO 9 FT BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

SWELL BEING GENERATED FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL KEEP SEAS UP AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
WINDS REMAIN SSW-ERLY UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS...VEERING WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. -MCCOY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 292148
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE STRONG LOW THAT BROUGHT HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND
WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND TODAY HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SLOWLY
SUBSIDING WINDS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AND
MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THERE WILL EVEN BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. ONSHORE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK...KEEPING THINGS COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG LOW THAT PRODUCED HIGH WINDS ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE COAST RANGE TODAY AND WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND HAS NOW
MOVED WELL NORTH INTO NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN B.C.  WINDS
IN OUR AREA ARE TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND HAVE BEEN
DROPPING THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS APPROPRIATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PEAK WIND VALUES ACROSS THE AREA...AND THEY WERE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE.
THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER THE COAST RANGE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THAT WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES AT TIME THIS BUT LESS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONT...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST. THE NORTH PART OF THIS FRONT
IS MERGING WITH THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION OF THE STRONG LOW THAT MOVED
NORTH EARLIER TODAY. THERE IS A LIGHTNING STRIKE ALONG THIS FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...WEST OF ASTORIA. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND SPREAD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS INDICATED
ABOVE...THIS FRONT IS SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...AND THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH IT ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
NORTH INTERIOR ZONES AGAIN. THERE IS SOME WIND WITH IT... ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST...BUT NOT AS WINDY AS TODAY. LOOK FOR GUSTS TO AROUND
40 MPH AT THE NORMALLY WINDIER EXPOSED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ONSHORE FLOW WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS ON
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY THE MODELS AGREE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP IN
FROM THE NORTH AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN AGAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DECENT PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING
THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...BUT THE TIMING VARIES A BIT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING IT
MAY DRY OUT AND START TO WARM UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR ALONG THE COAST...MOSTLY VFR INLAND.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST TO 25 KT AT COASTAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN WINDS DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT. INLAND...VFR CIGS MAY DROP TO
MVFR WITH RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING... IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH THIS FRONT
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
INCREASE AGAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 20 TO 25 KT THEN WILL DROP
TO AROUND 10 KT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. S WINDS
DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE BACK UP TO
20 TO 25 KT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR. BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REMAIN VFR
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. -MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS AROUND
20 TO 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO 15 TO 20
KT GUSTING TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FROM THE SSW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY UP AT 15 TO 18
FT WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING TO 10 TO 12 FT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
MAY CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THEY
DROP BELOW 20 KT AROUND MIDDAY. SEAS WILL DROP TO AROUND 8 TO 9 FT BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

SWELL BEING GENERATED FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL KEEP SEAS UP AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
WINDS REMAIN SSW-ERLY UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS...VEERING WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. -MCCOY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 292148
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE STRONG LOW THAT BROUGHT HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST AND
WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND TODAY HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SLOWLY
SUBSIDING WINDS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AND
MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THERE WILL EVEN BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. ONSHORE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK...KEEPING THINGS COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG LOW THAT PRODUCED HIGH WINDS ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE COAST RANGE TODAY AND WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND HAS NOW
MOVED WELL NORTH INTO NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN B.C.  WINDS
IN OUR AREA ARE TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND HAVE BEEN
DROPPING THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS APPROPRIATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PEAK WIND VALUES ACROSS THE AREA...AND THEY WERE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE.
THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER THE COAST RANGE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THAT WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES AT TIME THIS BUT LESS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONT...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST. THE NORTH PART OF THIS FRONT
IS MERGING WITH THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION OF THE STRONG LOW THAT MOVED
NORTH EARLIER TODAY. THERE IS A LIGHTNING STRIKE ALONG THIS FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...WEST OF ASTORIA. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND SPREAD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS INDICATED
ABOVE...THIS FRONT IS SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...AND THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH IT ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
NORTH INTERIOR ZONES AGAIN. THERE IS SOME WIND WITH IT... ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST...BUT NOT AS WINDY AS TODAY. LOOK FOR GUSTS TO AROUND
40 MPH AT THE NORMALLY WINDIER EXPOSED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ONSHORE FLOW WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS ON
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON TUESDAY THE MODELS AGREE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP IN
FROM THE NORTH AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN AGAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DECENT PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING
THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...BUT THE TIMING VARIES A BIT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING IT
MAY DRY OUT AND START TO WARM UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR ALONG THE COAST...MOSTLY VFR INLAND.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST TO 25 KT AT COASTAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN WINDS DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT. INLAND...VFR CIGS MAY DROP TO
MVFR WITH RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING... IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH THIS FRONT
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
INCREASE AGAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 20 TO 25 KT THEN WILL DROP
TO AROUND 10 KT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. S WINDS
DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE BACK UP TO
20 TO 25 KT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR. BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REMAIN VFR
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. -MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS AROUND
20 TO 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO 15 TO 20
KT GUSTING TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FROM THE SSW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY UP AT 15 TO 18
FT WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING TO 10 TO 12 FT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
MAY CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THEY
DROP BELOW 20 KT AROUND MIDDAY. SEAS WILL DROP TO AROUND 8 TO 9 FT BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

SWELL BEING GENERATED FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL KEEP SEAS UP AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
WINDS REMAIN SSW-ERLY UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS...VEERING WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. -MCCOY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 292132
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
232 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE LOW, WHICH TRACKED A BIT FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING, HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH
AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY ONSHORE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DIMINISH, BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL KEEP
BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT, AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT FAR INLAND.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND AND RAIN TO THE COAST AND WEST SIDE, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE
EXTENT AS SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH AT
THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGES, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH FOR THE
REST OF THE WEST SIDE. AGAIN, VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP AREA
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
AB IT WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE NEW THINKING. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE EVENT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE REGION UNDER WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE CONSIDERED A FALL
PATTERN. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM. THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY
PARTICULAR WAVE THAT WOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE KEPT MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED DRY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATTERN, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LATE WEEK TROUGH IS RESOLVED BY THE MODELS IN LATER
RUNS. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY, AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE AND BUMPY RIDES INTO AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
COAST AND UMPQUA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... THE SURFACE
LOW HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
THUS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECAST. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS, WITH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD VERTICAL
MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN, SOME ISOLATED STORM FORCE
GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, HAVE
DROPPED THE STORM WARNING. SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
EXPECTED WINDS, WITH VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN
THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. -BPN/CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...GENERAL
BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH
TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
THEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST
SIDE) COMES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
-WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.

$$

BPN/TRW/CC



000
FXUS65 KBOI 292032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
232 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NERN
CORNER OF OREGON...SWD THROUGH ERN BAKER COUNTY...THEN SSWWD
THROUGH MALHEUR COUNTY.  KCBX RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT IN BAKER COUNTY AND NRN-MOST MALHEUR COUNTY.  HIGH
ELEVATIONS IN OREGON HAVE TAPPED INTO VERY STRONG SWLY WINDS AT
700 MB.  EVEN LOWER ELEVATION SITES LIKE BURNS AND ROME HAVE
REPORTED SUSTAINED SW WINDS 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  FRONT
WILL REACH ONTARIO/OR AROUND 5 PM MDT...BOISE BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM
MDT...MOUNTAIN HOME 8 PM MDT...JEROME/TWIN FALLS 10 PM MDT.
EXPECT WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE SNAKE
BASIN DURING FROPA THEN DIMINISHING.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWERS CONTINUING A COUPLE HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT.  COOLER TONIGHT BUT WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  MUCH COOLER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
BUT ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.  UPPER TROUGH
WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS IN NRN ZONES...GENERALLY
NORTH OF 44N.  THE SHOWERS WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS NEAR 60 IN NRN
AREAS.  HIGHS IN THE SNAKE BASIN WILL BE 75 TO 82.  WITH SKIES
CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REALLY DROP...LOWS MONDAY MORNING
IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 IN THE VALLEYS.  BUT
MONDAY WILL END UP SUNNY AND WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OUT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE
AHEAD OF REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS
AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND STARTING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF KBKE-KMYL. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT...EXCEPT GUSTS TO
40KT THIS AFTERNOON IN SE OREGON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED BETWEEN
00Z/SUN AND 06Z/SUN. POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 45KT ALONG FRONT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED NORTH OF KLKV-KREO-KAWH LINE.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...SW 45-60KT IN OREGON AND SW 20-45KT IN
IDAHO BECOMING SW 25-35KT BY 06Z/SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA/JC
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS66 KPDT 291752 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1048 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PUSHING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT MOVED THROUGH
PENDLETON SHORTLY BEFORE 830 AM AND THE TRI-CITIES BETWEEN 830 AND
900 AM. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO VERY WINDY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT.
AREAS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ALSO
SEE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES. THUS WILL CONTINUE
THE CURRENT WIND AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES. SOME LOCATIONS, SUCH
AS DAYTON, HIT THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DO EXPECT TEMPS THAT FALL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO
RISE BACK TO THE MID 70S THROUGH THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. TWO
BANDS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES, ESPECIALLY IN WASHINGTON, THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATES WERE MADE TO ADJUST SOME
HIGH TEMPS, WINDS, AND SHOWER COVERAGES. FURTHER AFTERNOON TEMP
UPDATES MAY BE MADE LATER. 90

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP TO MVFR BEHIND A
FRONT THROUGH 29/21Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE FOR 2-4 HOURS AT EACH SITE.  WINDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS AFTER 30/14Z.  EARLE

&&

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL BE
BROAD AND SHALLOW WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE OFF THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND WILL SINK SOUTH,
ENDING UP NEAR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET VERY FAR PAST THE CASCADE CREST THOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS FAR
EAST AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL
DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND TURN THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. THE GFS SHOWS THE IMPULSE CARVING THE TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF IS LESS VIGOROUS WITH THIS IMPULSE AND DOES NOT
SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION BUT DOES DEEPEN THE TROUGH SOMEWHAT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH
STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE REST OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO
MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL CAUSE MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
BLOWING DUST AT KPSC, KALW, KPDT AND KYKM. WINDS WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM 17Z TO 01Z BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TO BELOW 15 KTS BY 04Z. KDLS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS DUE TO THE EAST/WEST
ORIENTATION OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BEING SOMEWHAT SHELTERED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TODAY TO IN AND
NEAR THE CASCADES WITH KDLS HAVING -SHRA THROUGH 20Z AND KRDM AND
KBDN HAVING VCSH THROUGH 19Z. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING -SHRA
TO KDLS AND KYKM AFTER 08Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS FOR ZONES 640 641 642 643 644 645 AND 675.
AN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE CASCADES AND EAST
SLOPES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  54  72  50 /  10  10  50  10
ALW  83  61  73  54 /  20  10  60  10
PSC  84  58  76  56 /  10  10  60  10
YKM  76  53  70  48 /  30  50  40  10
HRI  82  57  74  53 /  10  10  50  10
ELN  76  53  72  50 /  30  50  50  10
RDM  78  48  67  39 /  20  10  50  10
LGD  83  47  69  46 /  20  10  50  10
GCD  81  46  71  36 /  10  10  40  10
DLS  79  61  75  56 /  50  70  70  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-508-510-
     511.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-
     508.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029-521.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ641-643-645-
     675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/81/94



000
FXUS66 KPDT 291752 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1048 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PUSHING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT MOVED THROUGH
PENDLETON SHORTLY BEFORE 830 AM AND THE TRI-CITIES BETWEEN 830 AND
900 AM. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO VERY WINDY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT.
AREAS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ALSO
SEE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES. THUS WILL CONTINUE
THE CURRENT WIND AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES. SOME LOCATIONS, SUCH
AS DAYTON, HIT THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DO EXPECT TEMPS THAT FALL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO
RISE BACK TO THE MID 70S THROUGH THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. TWO
BANDS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES, ESPECIALLY IN WASHINGTON, THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATES WERE MADE TO ADJUST SOME
HIGH TEMPS, WINDS, AND SHOWER COVERAGES. FURTHER AFTERNOON TEMP
UPDATES MAY BE MADE LATER. 90

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP TO MVFR BEHIND A
FRONT THROUGH 29/21Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE FOR 2-4 HOURS AT EACH SITE.  WINDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS AFTER 30/14Z.  EARLE

&&

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL BE
BROAD AND SHALLOW WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE OFF THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND WILL SINK SOUTH,
ENDING UP NEAR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET VERY FAR PAST THE CASCADE CREST THOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS FAR
EAST AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL
DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND TURN THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. THE GFS SHOWS THE IMPULSE CARVING THE TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF IS LESS VIGOROUS WITH THIS IMPULSE AND DOES NOT
SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION BUT DOES DEEPEN THE TROUGH SOMEWHAT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH
STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE REST OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO
MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL CAUSE MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
BLOWING DUST AT KPSC, KALW, KPDT AND KYKM. WINDS WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM 17Z TO 01Z BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TO BELOW 15 KTS BY 04Z. KDLS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS DUE TO THE EAST/WEST
ORIENTATION OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BEING SOMEWHAT SHELTERED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TODAY TO IN AND
NEAR THE CASCADES WITH KDLS HAVING -SHRA THROUGH 20Z AND KRDM AND
KBDN HAVING VCSH THROUGH 19Z. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING -SHRA
TO KDLS AND KYKM AFTER 08Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS FOR ZONES 640 641 642 643 644 645 AND 675.
AN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE CASCADES AND EAST
SLOPES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  54  72  50 /  10  10  50  10
ALW  83  61  73  54 /  20  10  60  10
PSC  84  58  76  56 /  10  10  60  10
YKM  76  53  70  48 /  30  50  40  10
HRI  82  57  74  53 /  10  10  50  10
ELN  76  53  72  50 /  30  50  50  10
RDM  78  48  67  39 /  20  10  50  10
LGD  83  47  69  46 /  20  10  50  10
GCD  81  46  71  36 /  10  10  40  10
DLS  79  61  75  56 /  50  70  70  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-508-510-
     511.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-
     508.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029-521.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ641-643-645-
     675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/81/94



000
FXUS66 KPDT 291752 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1048 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PUSHING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT MOVED THROUGH
PENDLETON SHORTLY BEFORE 830 AM AND THE TRI-CITIES BETWEEN 830 AND
900 AM. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO VERY WINDY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT.
AREAS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ALSO
SEE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES. THUS WILL CONTINUE
THE CURRENT WIND AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES. SOME LOCATIONS, SUCH
AS DAYTON, HIT THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DO EXPECT TEMPS THAT FALL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO
RISE BACK TO THE MID 70S THROUGH THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. TWO
BANDS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES, ESPECIALLY IN WASHINGTON, THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATES WERE MADE TO ADJUST SOME
HIGH TEMPS, WINDS, AND SHOWER COVERAGES. FURTHER AFTERNOON TEMP
UPDATES MAY BE MADE LATER. 90

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP TO MVFR BEHIND A
FRONT THROUGH 29/21Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE FOR 2-4 HOURS AT EACH SITE.  WINDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS AFTER 30/14Z.  EARLE

&&

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL BE
BROAD AND SHALLOW WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE OFF THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND WILL SINK SOUTH,
ENDING UP NEAR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET VERY FAR PAST THE CASCADE CREST THOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS FAR
EAST AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL
DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND TURN THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. THE GFS SHOWS THE IMPULSE CARVING THE TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF IS LESS VIGOROUS WITH THIS IMPULSE AND DOES NOT
SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION BUT DOES DEEPEN THE TROUGH SOMEWHAT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH
STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE REST OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO
MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL CAUSE MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
BLOWING DUST AT KPSC, KALW, KPDT AND KYKM. WINDS WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM 17Z TO 01Z BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TO BELOW 15 KTS BY 04Z. KDLS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS DUE TO THE EAST/WEST
ORIENTATION OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BEING SOMEWHAT SHELTERED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TODAY TO IN AND
NEAR THE CASCADES WITH KDLS HAVING -SHRA THROUGH 20Z AND KRDM AND
KBDN HAVING VCSH THROUGH 19Z. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING -SHRA
TO KDLS AND KYKM AFTER 08Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS FOR ZONES 640 641 642 643 644 645 AND 675.
AN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE CASCADES AND EAST
SLOPES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  54  72  50 /  10  10  50  10
ALW  83  61  73  54 /  20  10  60  10
PSC  84  58  76  56 /  10  10  60  10
YKM  76  53  70  48 /  30  50  40  10
HRI  82  57  74  53 /  10  10  50  10
ELN  76  53  72  50 /  30  50  50  10
RDM  78  48  67  39 /  20  10  50  10
LGD  83  47  69  46 /  20  10  50  10
GCD  81  46  71  36 /  10  10  40  10
DLS  79  61  75  56 /  50  70  70  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-508-510-
     511.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-
     508.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029-521.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ641-643-645-
     675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/81/94



000
FXUS66 KPDT 291752 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1048 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PUSHING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT MOVED THROUGH
PENDLETON SHORTLY BEFORE 830 AM AND THE TRI-CITIES BETWEEN 830 AND
900 AM. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO VERY WINDY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT.
AREAS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ALSO
SEE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES. THUS WILL CONTINUE
THE CURRENT WIND AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES. SOME LOCATIONS, SUCH
AS DAYTON, HIT THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DO EXPECT TEMPS THAT FALL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO
RISE BACK TO THE MID 70S THROUGH THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. TWO
BANDS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES, ESPECIALLY IN WASHINGTON, THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATES WERE MADE TO ADJUST SOME
HIGH TEMPS, WINDS, AND SHOWER COVERAGES. FURTHER AFTERNOON TEMP
UPDATES MAY BE MADE LATER. 90

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP TO MVFR BEHIND A
FRONT THROUGH 29/21Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE FOR 2-4 HOURS AT EACH SITE.  WINDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS AFTER 30/14Z.  EARLE

&&

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL BE
BROAD AND SHALLOW WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE OFF THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND WILL SINK SOUTH,
ENDING UP NEAR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET VERY FAR PAST THE CASCADE CREST THOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS FAR
EAST AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL
DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND TURN THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. THE GFS SHOWS THE IMPULSE CARVING THE TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF IS LESS VIGOROUS WITH THIS IMPULSE AND DOES NOT
SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION BUT DOES DEEPEN THE TROUGH SOMEWHAT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH
STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE REST OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO
MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL CAUSE MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
BLOWING DUST AT KPSC, KALW, KPDT AND KYKM. WINDS WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM 17Z TO 01Z BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TO BELOW 15 KTS BY 04Z. KDLS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS DUE TO THE EAST/WEST
ORIENTATION OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BEING SOMEWHAT SHELTERED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TODAY TO IN AND
NEAR THE CASCADES WITH KDLS HAVING -SHRA THROUGH 20Z AND KRDM AND
KBDN HAVING VCSH THROUGH 19Z. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING -SHRA
TO KDLS AND KYKM AFTER 08Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS FOR ZONES 640 641 642 643 644 645 AND 675.
AN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE CASCADES AND EAST
SLOPES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  54  72  50 /  10  10  50  10
ALW  83  61  73  54 /  20  10  60  10
PSC  84  58  76  56 /  10  10  60  10
YKM  76  53  70  48 /  30  50  40  10
HRI  82  57  74  53 /  10  10  50  10
ELN  76  53  72  50 /  30  50  50  10
RDM  78  48  67  39 /  20  10  50  10
LGD  83  47  69  46 /  20  10  50  10
GCD  81  46  71  36 /  10  10  40  10
DLS  79  61  75  56 /  50  70  70  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-508-510-
     511.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-
     508.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029-521.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ641-643-645-
     675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/81/94



000
FXUS66 KPDT 291752 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1048 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PUSHING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT MOVED THROUGH
PENDLETON SHORTLY BEFORE 830 AM AND THE TRI-CITIES BETWEEN 830 AND
900 AM. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO VERY WINDY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT.
AREAS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ALSO
SEE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES. THUS WILL CONTINUE
THE CURRENT WIND AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES. SOME LOCATIONS, SUCH
AS DAYTON, HIT THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DO EXPECT TEMPS THAT FALL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO
RISE BACK TO THE MID 70S THROUGH THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. TWO
BANDS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES, ESPECIALLY IN WASHINGTON, THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATES WERE MADE TO ADJUST SOME
HIGH TEMPS, WINDS, AND SHOWER COVERAGES. FURTHER AFTERNOON TEMP
UPDATES MAY BE MADE LATER. 90

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP TO MVFR BEHIND A
FRONT THROUGH 29/21Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE FOR 2-4 HOURS AT EACH SITE.  WINDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS AFTER 30/14Z.  EARLE

&&

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL BE
BROAD AND SHALLOW WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE OFF THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND WILL SINK SOUTH,
ENDING UP NEAR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET VERY FAR PAST THE CASCADE CREST THOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS FAR
EAST AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL
DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND TURN THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. THE GFS SHOWS THE IMPULSE CARVING THE TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF IS LESS VIGOROUS WITH THIS IMPULSE AND DOES NOT
SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION BUT DOES DEEPEN THE TROUGH SOMEWHAT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH
STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE REST OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO
MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL CAUSE MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
BLOWING DUST AT KPSC, KALW, KPDT AND KYKM. WINDS WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM 17Z TO 01Z BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TO BELOW 15 KTS BY 04Z. KDLS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS DUE TO THE EAST/WEST
ORIENTATION OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BEING SOMEWHAT SHELTERED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TODAY TO IN AND
NEAR THE CASCADES WITH KDLS HAVING -SHRA THROUGH 20Z AND KRDM AND
KBDN HAVING VCSH THROUGH 19Z. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING -SHRA
TO KDLS AND KYKM AFTER 08Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS FOR ZONES 640 641 642 643 644 645 AND 675.
AN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE CASCADES AND EAST
SLOPES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  54  72  50 /  10  10  50  10
ALW  83  61  73  54 /  20  10  60  10
PSC  84  58  76  56 /  10  10  60  10
YKM  76  53  70  48 /  30  50  40  10
HRI  82  57  74  53 /  10  10  50  10
ELN  76  53  72  50 /  30  50  50  10
RDM  78  48  67  39 /  20  10  50  10
LGD  83  47  69  46 /  20  10  50  10
GCD  81  46  71  36 /  10  10  40  10
DLS  79  61  75  56 /  50  70  70  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-508-510-
     511.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-
     508.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029-521.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ641-643-645-
     675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/81/94



000
FXUS66 KMFR 291744
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1044 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY, AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE AND BUMPY RIDES INTO AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO
THE COAST AND UMPQUA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...THE SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS MOVED ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
NOT QUITE REACHED THE STRENGTH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, WINDS
ELSEWHERE ARE RIGHT ON TRACK. PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY LESS
INLAND, BUT AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, AS WELL AS
IN THE UMPQUA AND ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES, HAVE MET
EXPECTATIONS. REPORTS THIS MORNING HAVE CONFIRMED THAT ALL MAJOR
WILDFIRES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE RECEIVED A WETTING RAIN, AND
MUCH OF THE SMOKE HAS FINALLY BEEN SWEPT OUT OF THE REGION. HAVE
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY, MAINLY TO
BRING THINGS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION. -BPN

MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... THE
SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. THUS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
FORECAST. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS, WITH
GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD VERTICAL MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER
RAIN, SOME ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT DUE
TO THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, HAVE DROPPED THE STORM WARNING.
SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN EXPECTED WINDS, WITH VERY STEEP
WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM
GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. -BPN/CC

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 291744
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1044 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY, AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE AND BUMPY RIDES INTO AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO
THE COAST AND UMPQUA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...THE SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS MOVED ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
NOT QUITE REACHED THE STRENGTH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, WINDS
ELSEWHERE ARE RIGHT ON TRACK. PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY LESS
INLAND, BUT AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, AS WELL AS
IN THE UMPQUA AND ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES, HAVE MET
EXPECTATIONS. REPORTS THIS MORNING HAVE CONFIRMED THAT ALL MAJOR
WILDFIRES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE RECEIVED A WETTING RAIN, AND
MUCH OF THE SMOKE HAS FINALLY BEEN SWEPT OUT OF THE REGION. HAVE
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY, MAINLY TO
BRING THINGS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION. -BPN

MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... THE
SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. THUS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
FORECAST. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS, WITH
GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD VERTICAL MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER
RAIN, SOME ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT DUE
TO THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, HAVE DROPPED THE STORM WARNING.
SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN EXPECTED WINDS, WITH VERY STEEP
WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM
GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. -BPN/CC

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KPDT 291624
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
924 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PUSHING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT MOVED THROUGH
PENDLETON SHORTLY BEFORE 830 AM AND THE TRI-CITIES BETWEEN 830 AND
900 AM. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO VERY WINDY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT.
AREAS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ALSO
SEE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES. THUS WILL CONTINUE
THE CURRENT WIND AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES. SOME LOCATIONS, SUCH
AS DAYTON, HIT THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DO EXPECT TEMPS THAT FALL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO
RISE BACK TO THE MID 70S THROUGH THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. TWO
BANDS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES, ESPECIALLY IN WASHINGTON, THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATES WERE MADE TO ADJUST SOME
HIGH TEMPS, WINDS, AND SHOWER COVERAGES. FURTHER AFTERNOON TEMP
UPDATES MAY BE MADE LATER. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL BE
BROAD AND SHALLOW WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE OFF THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND WILL SINK SOUTH,
ENDING UP NEAR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET VERY FAR PAST THE CASCADE CREST THOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS FAR
EAST AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL
DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND TURN THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. THE GFS SHOWS THE IMPULSE CARVING THE TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF IS LESS VIGOROUS WITH THIS IMPULSE AND DOES NOT
SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION BUT DOES DEEPEN THE TROUGH SOMEWHAT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH
STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE REST OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO
MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL CAUSE MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
BLOWING DUST AT KPSC, KALW, KPDT AND KYKM. WINDS WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM 17Z TO 01Z BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TO BELOW 15 KTS BY 04Z. KDLS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS DUE TO THE EAST/WEST
ORIENTATION OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BEING SOMEWHAT SHELTERED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TODAY TO IN AND
NEAR THE CASCADES WITH KDLS HAVING -SHRA THROUGH 20Z AND KRDM AND
KBDN HAVING VCSH THROUGH 19Z. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING -SHRA
TO KDLS AND KYKM AFTER 08Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS FOR ZONES 640 641 642 643 644 645 AND 675.
AN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE CASCADES AND EAST
SLOPES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  54  72  50 /  10  10  50  10
ALW  83  61  73  54 /  20  10  60  10
PSC  84  58  76  56 /  10  10  60  10
YKM  76  53  70  48 /  30  50  40  10
HRI  82  57  74  53 /  10  10  50  10
ELN  76  53  72  50 /  30  50  50  10
RDM  78  48  67  39 /  20  10  50  10
LGD  83  47  69  46 /  20  10  50  10
GCD  81  46  71  36 /  10  10  40  10
DLS  79  61  75  56 /  50  70  70  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-508-510-
     511.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-
     508.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029-521.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ641-643-645-
     675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/81/94



000
FXUS66 KPDT 291624
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
924 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PUSHING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT MOVED THROUGH
PENDLETON SHORTLY BEFORE 830 AM AND THE TRI-CITIES BETWEEN 830 AND
900 AM. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO VERY WINDY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT.
AREAS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ALSO
SEE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES. THUS WILL CONTINUE
THE CURRENT WIND AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES. SOME LOCATIONS, SUCH
AS DAYTON, HIT THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DO EXPECT TEMPS THAT FALL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO
RISE BACK TO THE MID 70S THROUGH THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. TWO
BANDS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES, ESPECIALLY IN WASHINGTON, THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATES WERE MADE TO ADJUST SOME
HIGH TEMPS, WINDS, AND SHOWER COVERAGES. FURTHER AFTERNOON TEMP
UPDATES MAY BE MADE LATER. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL BE
BROAD AND SHALLOW WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE OFF THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND WILL SINK SOUTH,
ENDING UP NEAR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET VERY FAR PAST THE CASCADE CREST THOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS FAR
EAST AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL
DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND TURN THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. THE GFS SHOWS THE IMPULSE CARVING THE TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF IS LESS VIGOROUS WITH THIS IMPULSE AND DOES NOT
SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION BUT DOES DEEPEN THE TROUGH SOMEWHAT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH
STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE REST OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO
MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL CAUSE MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
BLOWING DUST AT KPSC, KALW, KPDT AND KYKM. WINDS WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM 17Z TO 01Z BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TO BELOW 15 KTS BY 04Z. KDLS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS DUE TO THE EAST/WEST
ORIENTATION OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BEING SOMEWHAT SHELTERED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TODAY TO IN AND
NEAR THE CASCADES WITH KDLS HAVING -SHRA THROUGH 20Z AND KRDM AND
KBDN HAVING VCSH THROUGH 19Z. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING -SHRA
TO KDLS AND KYKM AFTER 08Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS FOR ZONES 640 641 642 643 644 645 AND 675.
AN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE CASCADES AND EAST
SLOPES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  54  72  50 /  10  10  50  10
ALW  83  61  73  54 /  20  10  60  10
PSC  84  58  76  56 /  10  10  60  10
YKM  76  53  70  48 /  30  50  40  10
HRI  82  57  74  53 /  10  10  50  10
ELN  76  53  72  50 /  30  50  50  10
RDM  78  48  67  39 /  20  10  50  10
LGD  83  47  69  46 /  20  10  50  10
GCD  81  46  71  36 /  10  10  40  10
DLS  79  61  75  56 /  50  70  70  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-508-510-
     511.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-
     508.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029-521.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ641-643-645-
     675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/81/94




000
FXUS66 KPDT 291624
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
924 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PUSHING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT MOVED THROUGH
PENDLETON SHORTLY BEFORE 830 AM AND THE TRI-CITIES BETWEEN 830 AND
900 AM. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO VERY WINDY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT.
AREAS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ALSO
SEE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES. THUS WILL CONTINUE
THE CURRENT WIND AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES. SOME LOCATIONS, SUCH
AS DAYTON, HIT THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DO EXPECT TEMPS THAT FALL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO
RISE BACK TO THE MID 70S THROUGH THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. TWO
BANDS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES, ESPECIALLY IN WASHINGTON, THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATES WERE MADE TO ADJUST SOME
HIGH TEMPS, WINDS, AND SHOWER COVERAGES. FURTHER AFTERNOON TEMP
UPDATES MAY BE MADE LATER. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL BE
BROAD AND SHALLOW WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE OFF THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND WILL SINK SOUTH,
ENDING UP NEAR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET VERY FAR PAST THE CASCADE CREST THOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS FAR
EAST AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL
DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND TURN THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. THE GFS SHOWS THE IMPULSE CARVING THE TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF IS LESS VIGOROUS WITH THIS IMPULSE AND DOES NOT
SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION BUT DOES DEEPEN THE TROUGH SOMEWHAT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH
STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE REST OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO
MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL CAUSE MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
BLOWING DUST AT KPSC, KALW, KPDT AND KYKM. WINDS WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM 17Z TO 01Z BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TO BELOW 15 KTS BY 04Z. KDLS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS DUE TO THE EAST/WEST
ORIENTATION OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BEING SOMEWHAT SHELTERED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TODAY TO IN AND
NEAR THE CASCADES WITH KDLS HAVING -SHRA THROUGH 20Z AND KRDM AND
KBDN HAVING VCSH THROUGH 19Z. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING -SHRA
TO KDLS AND KYKM AFTER 08Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS FOR ZONES 640 641 642 643 644 645 AND 675.
AN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE CASCADES AND EAST
SLOPES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  54  72  50 /  10  10  50  10
ALW  83  61  73  54 /  20  10  60  10
PSC  84  58  76  56 /  10  10  60  10
YKM  76  53  70  48 /  30  50  40  10
HRI  82  57  74  53 /  10  10  50  10
ELN  76  53  72  50 /  30  50  50  10
RDM  78  48  67  39 /  20  10  50  10
LGD  83  47  69  46 /  20  10  50  10
GCD  81  46  71  36 /  10  10  40  10
DLS  79  61  75  56 /  50  70  70  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-508-510-
     511.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-
     508.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029-521.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ641-643-645-
     675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/81/94



000
FXUS66 KPDT 291624
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
924 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PUSHING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT MOVED THROUGH
PENDLETON SHORTLY BEFORE 830 AM AND THE TRI-CITIES BETWEEN 830 AND
900 AM. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO VERY WINDY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT.
AREAS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ALSO
SEE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES. THUS WILL CONTINUE
THE CURRENT WIND AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES. SOME LOCATIONS, SUCH
AS DAYTON, HIT THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. DO EXPECT TEMPS THAT FALL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO
RISE BACK TO THE MID 70S THROUGH THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. TWO
BANDS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES, ESPECIALLY IN WASHINGTON, THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATES WERE MADE TO ADJUST SOME
HIGH TEMPS, WINDS, AND SHOWER COVERAGES. FURTHER AFTERNOON TEMP
UPDATES MAY BE MADE LATER. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL BE
BROAD AND SHALLOW WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE OFF THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND WILL SINK SOUTH,
ENDING UP NEAR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET VERY FAR PAST THE CASCADE CREST THOUGH
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS FAR
EAST AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL
DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND TURN THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. THE GFS SHOWS THE IMPULSE CARVING THE TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF IS LESS VIGOROUS WITH THIS IMPULSE AND DOES NOT
SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION BUT DOES DEEPEN THE TROUGH SOMEWHAT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH
STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE REST OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO
MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL CAUSE MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
BLOWING DUST AT KPSC, KALW, KPDT AND KYKM. WINDS WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM 17Z TO 01Z BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TO BELOW 15 KTS BY 04Z. KDLS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS DUE TO THE EAST/WEST
ORIENTATION OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BEING SOMEWHAT SHELTERED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TODAY TO IN AND
NEAR THE CASCADES WITH KDLS HAVING -SHRA THROUGH 20Z AND KRDM AND
KBDN HAVING VCSH THROUGH 19Z. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING -SHRA
TO KDLS AND KYKM AFTER 08Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS FOR ZONES 640 641 642 643 644 645 AND 675.
AN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG THE CASCADES AND EAST
SLOPES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  54  72  50 /  10  10  50  10
ALW  83  61  73  54 /  20  10  60  10
PSC  84  58  76  56 /  10  10  60  10
YKM  76  53  70  48 /  30  50  40  10
HRI  82  57  74  53 /  10  10  50  10
ELN  76  53  72  50 /  30  50  50  10
RDM  78  48  67  39 /  20  10  50  10
LGD  83  47  69  46 /  20  10  50  10
GCD  81  46  71  36 /  10  10  40  10
DLS  79  61  75  56 /  50  70  70  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-508-510-
     511.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-
     508.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029-521.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ641-643-645-
     675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ027>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/81/94




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291623
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
923 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR AREA HAS DONE PRETTY MUCH WHAT IT WAS SUPPOSED
TO...WITH HIGH WIND ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LOCAL POWER DISRUPTIONS...WINDY CONDITIONS
INLAND...AND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE
STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND
WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ON ITS HEELS AND PARTIALLY MERGED WITH THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION WILL
MOVE ONTO THE NORTH COAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...KEEPING THINGS COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THINGS HAVE TURNED OUT NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT WAS
EXPECTED THE LAST FEW DAYS AND AS INDICATED IN OUR AFDS AND
STATEMENTS. A STRONG LOW MOVED UP THE COAST AND APPEARS TO HAVE
BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 980S WELL INSIDE 130W. THIS HAS PRODUCED
HIGH WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER COASTAL MOUNTAINS... AND
ASTORIA AIRPORT EVEN REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 62 MPH MOMENTS AGO.
WINDY CONDITIONS SPREAD INLAND WITH A FEW GUSTS HAVING REACHED AROUND
40 MPH SO FAR.

WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE INTERIOR EARLIER THIS
MORNING...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND GAVE A BURST OF RAIN
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR SO TO MANY LOCATIONS. RAINFALL HAS BEEN A
BIT SUBDUED AS OFTEN HAPPENS WITH THESE STRONGER WIND STORMS AS
INDICATED IN OUR AFD YESTERDAY. THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION WILL CLIP THE
NORTHWEST PART OF OUR AREA WITH SOME BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED. A BIT OF SUNSHINE MIXED COULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH AN 80 NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION NEAR EUGENE. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND PUGET SOUND AND VANCOUVER
ISLAND BY 21Z OR 2 PM...AND THE GRADIENTS WILL BE WEAKENING
CONSIDERABLY BY THEN. THE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PART OF OUR AREA SHOULD
BE EASING BY NOON...AND THE NORTH PART BY AROUND 2 PM OR SO.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONT...CURRENTLY CROSSING 130W ON
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PARTIALLY MERGING WITH THE BENT BACK
OCCLUSION OF OUR CURRENT STRONG SURFACE LOW. THIS FRONT WILL REACH
THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND SPREAD THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS
SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH IT ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR ZONES
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME WIND WITH IT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST... BUT
NOT AS WINDY AS TODAY. LOOK FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AT THE
NORMALLY WINDIER EXPOSED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ONSHORE FLOW WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS ON
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...CIGS ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COULD BRIEFLY DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA AT NORTHERN TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 00Z. S
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 50 KT AT COASTAL TAF SITES THIS AM...AND WILL
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON TO 20 TO 25 KT BY THIS EVENING. AT INLAND TAF
SITES...S WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 35 KT AND COULD GUST UP NEAR 40 KT
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AT NORTHERN TAF
SITES. CIGS LOWER BACK TO MVFR TONIGHT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
WEAKER FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COULD DROP CIGS TO MVFR.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA UNTIL AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. S WINDS GUSTING
TO 35 KT...STARTING TO EASE AROUND 21Z. AFTER 00Z...RAIN INCREASES
FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
-MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...S WINDS GUSTING TO 45 TO 50 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SEAS UP TO 14 TO 18 FT. WINDS WILL START TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BACK DOWN TO SOLID GALES BY NOON. SEAS WILL STAY
UP AROUND 13 TO 15 FT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WINDS
AROUND 25 TO 35 KT GUSTING UP TO 40 TO 45 KT. LATER THIS EVENING...
SEAS WILL LOWER TO 10 TO 12 FT AND WINDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
GUSTING TO 25 KT OUT OF THE SW. WILL PROBABLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS DURING THIS TIME WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FT
AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING AROUND 6
TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COAST RANGE
     OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE
     OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291623
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
923 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR AREA HAS DONE PRETTY MUCH WHAT IT WAS SUPPOSED
TO...WITH HIGH WIND ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LOCAL POWER DISRUPTIONS...WINDY CONDITIONS
INLAND...AND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE
STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND
WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ON ITS HEELS AND PARTIALLY MERGED WITH THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION WILL
MOVE ONTO THE NORTH COAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...KEEPING THINGS COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THINGS HAVE TURNED OUT NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT WAS
EXPECTED THE LAST FEW DAYS AND AS INDICATED IN OUR AFDS AND
STATEMENTS. A STRONG LOW MOVED UP THE COAST AND APPEARS TO HAVE
BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 980S WELL INSIDE 130W. THIS HAS PRODUCED
HIGH WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER COASTAL MOUNTAINS... AND
ASTORIA AIRPORT EVEN REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 62 MPH MOMENTS AGO.
WINDY CONDITIONS SPREAD INLAND WITH A FEW GUSTS HAVING REACHED AROUND
40 MPH SO FAR.

WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE INTERIOR EARLIER THIS
MORNING...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND GAVE A BURST OF RAIN
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR SO TO MANY LOCATIONS. RAINFALL HAS BEEN A
BIT SUBDUED AS OFTEN HAPPENS WITH THESE STRONGER WIND STORMS AS
INDICATED IN OUR AFD YESTERDAY. THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION WILL CLIP THE
NORTHWEST PART OF OUR AREA WITH SOME BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED. A BIT OF SUNSHINE MIXED COULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH AN 80 NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION NEAR EUGENE. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND PUGET SOUND AND VANCOUVER
ISLAND BY 21Z OR 2 PM...AND THE GRADIENTS WILL BE WEAKENING
CONSIDERABLY BY THEN. THE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PART OF OUR AREA SHOULD
BE EASING BY NOON...AND THE NORTH PART BY AROUND 2 PM OR SO.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONT...CURRENTLY CROSSING 130W ON
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PARTIALLY MERGING WITH THE BENT BACK
OCCLUSION OF OUR CURRENT STRONG SURFACE LOW. THIS FRONT WILL REACH
THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND SPREAD THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS
SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH IT ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR ZONES
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME WIND WITH IT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST... BUT
NOT AS WINDY AS TODAY. LOOK FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AT THE
NORMALLY WINDIER EXPOSED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ONSHORE FLOW WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS ON
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...CIGS ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COULD BRIEFLY DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA AT NORTHERN TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 00Z. S
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 50 KT AT COASTAL TAF SITES THIS AM...AND WILL
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON TO 20 TO 25 KT BY THIS EVENING. AT INLAND TAF
SITES...S WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 35 KT AND COULD GUST UP NEAR 40 KT
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AT NORTHERN TAF
SITES. CIGS LOWER BACK TO MVFR TONIGHT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
WEAKER FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COULD DROP CIGS TO MVFR.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA UNTIL AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. S WINDS GUSTING
TO 35 KT...STARTING TO EASE AROUND 21Z. AFTER 00Z...RAIN INCREASES
FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
-MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...S WINDS GUSTING TO 45 TO 50 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SEAS UP TO 14 TO 18 FT. WINDS WILL START TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BACK DOWN TO SOLID GALES BY NOON. SEAS WILL STAY
UP AROUND 13 TO 15 FT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WINDS
AROUND 25 TO 35 KT GUSTING UP TO 40 TO 45 KT. LATER THIS EVENING...
SEAS WILL LOWER TO 10 TO 12 FT AND WINDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
GUSTING TO 25 KT OUT OF THE SW. WILL PROBABLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS DURING THIS TIME WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FT
AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING AROUND 6
TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COAST RANGE
     OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE
     OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 291623
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
923 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR AREA HAS DONE PRETTY MUCH WHAT IT WAS SUPPOSED
TO...WITH HIGH WIND ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LOCAL POWER DISRUPTIONS...WINDY CONDITIONS
INLAND...AND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE
STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND
WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ON ITS HEELS AND PARTIALLY MERGED WITH THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION WILL
MOVE ONTO THE NORTH COAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...KEEPING THINGS COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THINGS HAVE TURNED OUT NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT WAS
EXPECTED THE LAST FEW DAYS AND AS INDICATED IN OUR AFDS AND
STATEMENTS. A STRONG LOW MOVED UP THE COAST AND APPEARS TO HAVE
BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 980S WELL INSIDE 130W. THIS HAS PRODUCED
HIGH WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER COASTAL MOUNTAINS... AND
ASTORIA AIRPORT EVEN REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 62 MPH MOMENTS AGO.
WINDY CONDITIONS SPREAD INLAND WITH A FEW GUSTS HAVING REACHED AROUND
40 MPH SO FAR.

WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE INTERIOR EARLIER THIS
MORNING...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND GAVE A BURST OF RAIN
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR SO TO MANY LOCATIONS. RAINFALL HAS BEEN A
BIT SUBDUED AS OFTEN HAPPENS WITH THESE STRONGER WIND STORMS AS
INDICATED IN OUR AFD YESTERDAY. THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION WILL CLIP THE
NORTHWEST PART OF OUR AREA WITH SOME BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED. A BIT OF SUNSHINE MIXED COULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH AN 80 NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION NEAR EUGENE. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND PUGET SOUND AND VANCOUVER
ISLAND BY 21Z OR 2 PM...AND THE GRADIENTS WILL BE WEAKENING
CONSIDERABLY BY THEN. THE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PART OF OUR AREA SHOULD
BE EASING BY NOON...AND THE NORTH PART BY AROUND 2 PM OR SO.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONT...CURRENTLY CROSSING 130W ON
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PARTIALLY MERGING WITH THE BENT BACK
OCCLUSION OF OUR CURRENT STRONG SURFACE LOW. THIS FRONT WILL REACH
THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND SPREAD THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS
SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH IT ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR ZONES
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME WIND WITH IT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST... BUT
NOT AS WINDY AS TODAY. LOOK FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AT THE
NORMALLY WINDIER EXPOSED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ONSHORE FLOW WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS ON
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...CIGS ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COULD BRIEFLY DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA AT NORTHERN TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 00Z. S
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 50 KT AT COASTAL TAF SITES THIS AM...AND WILL
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON TO 20 TO 25 KT BY THIS EVENING. AT INLAND TAF
SITES...S WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 35 KT AND COULD GUST UP NEAR 40 KT
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AT NORTHERN TAF
SITES. CIGS LOWER BACK TO MVFR TONIGHT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
WEAKER FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COULD DROP CIGS TO MVFR.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA UNTIL AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. S WINDS GUSTING
TO 35 KT...STARTING TO EASE AROUND 21Z. AFTER 00Z...RAIN INCREASES
FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
-MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...S WINDS GUSTING TO 45 TO 50 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SEAS UP TO 14 TO 18 FT. WINDS WILL START TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BACK DOWN TO SOLID GALES BY NOON. SEAS WILL STAY
UP AROUND 13 TO 15 FT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WINDS
AROUND 25 TO 35 KT GUSTING UP TO 40 TO 45 KT. LATER THIS EVENING...
SEAS WILL LOWER TO 10 TO 12 FT AND WINDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
GUSTING TO 25 KT OUT OF THE SW. WILL PROBABLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS DURING THIS TIME WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FT
AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING AROUND 6
TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COAST RANGE
     OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE
     OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 291623
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
923 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR AREA HAS DONE PRETTY MUCH WHAT IT WAS SUPPOSED
TO...WITH HIGH WIND ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LOCAL POWER DISRUPTIONS...WINDY CONDITIONS
INLAND...AND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE
STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND
WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ON ITS HEELS AND PARTIALLY MERGED WITH THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION WILL
MOVE ONTO THE NORTH COAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...KEEPING THINGS COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THINGS HAVE TURNED OUT NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT WAS
EXPECTED THE LAST FEW DAYS AND AS INDICATED IN OUR AFDS AND
STATEMENTS. A STRONG LOW MOVED UP THE COAST AND APPEARS TO HAVE
BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 980S WELL INSIDE 130W. THIS HAS PRODUCED
HIGH WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER COASTAL MOUNTAINS... AND
ASTORIA AIRPORT EVEN REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 62 MPH MOMENTS AGO.
WINDY CONDITIONS SPREAD INLAND WITH A FEW GUSTS HAVING REACHED AROUND
40 MPH SO FAR.

WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE INTERIOR EARLIER THIS
MORNING...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND GAVE A BURST OF RAIN
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR SO TO MANY LOCATIONS. RAINFALL HAS BEEN A
BIT SUBDUED AS OFTEN HAPPENS WITH THESE STRONGER WIND STORMS AS
INDICATED IN OUR AFD YESTERDAY. THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION WILL CLIP THE
NORTHWEST PART OF OUR AREA WITH SOME BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED. A BIT OF SUNSHINE MIXED COULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH AN 80 NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION NEAR EUGENE. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND PUGET SOUND AND VANCOUVER
ISLAND BY 21Z OR 2 PM...AND THE GRADIENTS WILL BE WEAKENING
CONSIDERABLY BY THEN. THE WINDS IN THE SOUTH PART OF OUR AREA SHOULD
BE EASING BY NOON...AND THE NORTH PART BY AROUND 2 PM OR SO.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONT...CURRENTLY CROSSING 130W ON
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PARTIALLY MERGING WITH THE BENT BACK
OCCLUSION OF OUR CURRENT STRONG SURFACE LOW. THIS FRONT WILL REACH
THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND SPREAD THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS
SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH IT ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR ZONES
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME WIND WITH IT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST... BUT
NOT AS WINDY AS TODAY. LOOK FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AT THE
NORMALLY WINDIER EXPOSED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR DECENT
SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ONSHORE FLOW WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS ON
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...CIGS ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COULD BRIEFLY DROP CIGS TO MVFR. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA AT NORTHERN TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 00Z. S
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 50 KT AT COASTAL TAF SITES THIS AM...AND WILL
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON TO 20 TO 25 KT BY THIS EVENING. AT INLAND TAF
SITES...S WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 35 KT AND COULD GUST UP NEAR 40 KT
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AT NORTHERN TAF
SITES. CIGS LOWER BACK TO MVFR TONIGHT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
WEAKER FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COULD DROP CIGS TO MVFR.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA UNTIL AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. S WINDS GUSTING
TO 35 KT...STARTING TO EASE AROUND 21Z. AFTER 00Z...RAIN INCREASES
FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
-MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...S WINDS GUSTING TO 45 TO 50 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SEAS UP TO 14 TO 18 FT. WINDS WILL START TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BACK DOWN TO SOLID GALES BY NOON. SEAS WILL STAY
UP AROUND 13 TO 15 FT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WINDS
AROUND 25 TO 35 KT GUSTING UP TO 40 TO 45 KT. LATER THIS EVENING...
SEAS WILL LOWER TO 10 TO 12 FT AND WINDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
GUSTING TO 25 KT OUT OF THE SW. WILL PROBABLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS DURING THIS TIME WILL HOVER AROUND 10 FT
AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING AROUND 6
TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. -MCCOY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COAST RANGE
     OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE
     OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 291539
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
939 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM OCCURRED IN PAYETTE COUNTY/ID AROUND
SUNRISE WITH KCBX RADAR STILL SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN PAYETTE...
WASHINGTON...AND ADAMS COUNTIES AT 9 AM.  THE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS
MOVING EAST BUT THE SHOWERS THEMSELVES WERE MOVING NNE.  THIS
ACTIVITY WAS NOT WITH THE COLD FRONT.  THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER.
LATEST ESTIMATE HAS IT PASSING THROUGH ERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...
THE IDAHO TREASURE VALLEY 6-8 PM MDT...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO 10
PM TO MIDNIGHT.  FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND
COOLING...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND
IT...ESPECIALLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE.  CLOUDS AND LINGERING WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT BUT SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY
IN ALL AREAS.  A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL STAY OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.
ALL NEXT WEEK KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.   A REINFORCEMENT OF THE
TROUGH IS SEEN ABOUT NEXT FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE.
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF KBNO-KMYL. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT...EXCEPT GUSTS TO
40KT THIS AFTERNOON IN SE OREGON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED BTWN
21Z/SAT-06Z/SUN. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED NORTH OF KLKV-KREO-KAWH
LINE. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...SW 45-60KT IN OREGON AND SW 20-
45KT IN IDAHO THIS MORNING BECOMING SW 25-35KT BY 06Z/SUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE ID PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING...CENTERED WEST OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE OREGON THEN FAR SW IDAHO LATER TODAY. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON TODAY...BREEZY SOUTH
TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/WEISER BASIN LATER
TODAY...AND SW TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE JET WILL ALSO LIFT MOISTURE N ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO
THIS MORNING FOR LOW POPS. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SIERRA NV AND
OREGON WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT ACROSS
S-CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON SO JUST GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH FOR THE
MAGIC VALLEY AREA...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS EVENING
EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT TO STRENGTHEN AND
THE SURFACE LOW TO FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /WITH GUSTY WINDS/ ACROSS IDAHO ZONES.

MILD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE AND WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN. THEN AN
UPPER IMPULSE /WITHIN THE BROAD WESTERN UPPER TROUGH/ WILL DIG
THROUGH THE PACNW SUNDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM UP TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
TODAY...TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY ACROSS BAKER AND
HARNEY COUNTIES. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES...SO PATCHY SMOKE IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA
FROM THE GRANT/BAKER COUNTY BORDER TO ADAMS/VALLEY COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
INLAND. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MODELS SHOW ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SO THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 291539
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
939 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM OCCURRED IN PAYETTE COUNTY/ID AROUND
SUNRISE WITH KCBX RADAR STILL SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN PAYETTE...
WASHINGTON...AND ADAMS COUNTIES AT 9 AM.  THE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS
MOVING EAST BUT THE SHOWERS THEMSELVES WERE MOVING NNE.  THIS
ACTIVITY WAS NOT WITH THE COLD FRONT.  THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER.
LATEST ESTIMATE HAS IT PASSING THROUGH ERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...
THE IDAHO TREASURE VALLEY 6-8 PM MDT...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO 10
PM TO MIDNIGHT.  FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND
COOLING...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND
IT...ESPECIALLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE.  CLOUDS AND LINGERING WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT BUT SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY
IN ALL AREAS.  A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL STAY OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.
ALL NEXT WEEK KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.   A REINFORCEMENT OF THE
TROUGH IS SEEN ABOUT NEXT FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE.
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF KBNO-KMYL. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT...EXCEPT GUSTS TO
40KT THIS AFTERNOON IN SE OREGON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED BTWN
21Z/SAT-06Z/SUN. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED NORTH OF KLKV-KREO-KAWH
LINE. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...SW 45-60KT IN OREGON AND SW 20-
45KT IN IDAHO THIS MORNING BECOMING SW 25-35KT BY 06Z/SUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE ID PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING...CENTERED WEST OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE OREGON THEN FAR SW IDAHO LATER TODAY. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON TODAY...BREEZY SOUTH
TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/WEISER BASIN LATER
TODAY...AND SW TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE JET WILL ALSO LIFT MOISTURE N ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO
THIS MORNING FOR LOW POPS. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SIERRA NV AND
OREGON WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT ACROSS
S-CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON SO JUST GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH FOR THE
MAGIC VALLEY AREA...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS EVENING
EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT TO STRENGTHEN AND
THE SURFACE LOW TO FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /WITH GUSTY WINDS/ ACROSS IDAHO ZONES.

MILD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE AND WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN. THEN AN
UPPER IMPULSE /WITHIN THE BROAD WESTERN UPPER TROUGH/ WILL DIG
THROUGH THE PACNW SUNDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM UP TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
TODAY...TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY ACROSS BAKER AND
HARNEY COUNTIES. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES...SO PATCHY SMOKE IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA
FROM THE GRANT/BAKER COUNTY BORDER TO ADAMS/VALLEY COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
INLAND. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MODELS SHOW ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SO THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 291539
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
939 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM OCCURRED IN PAYETTE COUNTY/ID AROUND
SUNRISE WITH KCBX RADAR STILL SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN PAYETTE...
WASHINGTON...AND ADAMS COUNTIES AT 9 AM.  THE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS
MOVING EAST BUT THE SHOWERS THEMSELVES WERE MOVING NNE.  THIS
ACTIVITY WAS NOT WITH THE COLD FRONT.  THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER.
LATEST ESTIMATE HAS IT PASSING THROUGH ERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...
THE IDAHO TREASURE VALLEY 6-8 PM MDT...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO 10
PM TO MIDNIGHT.  FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND
COOLING...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND
IT...ESPECIALLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE.  CLOUDS AND LINGERING WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT BUT SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY
IN ALL AREAS.  A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL STAY OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.
ALL NEXT WEEK KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.   A REINFORCEMENT OF THE
TROUGH IS SEEN ABOUT NEXT FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE.
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF KBNO-KMYL. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT...EXCEPT GUSTS TO
40KT THIS AFTERNOON IN SE OREGON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED BTWN
21Z/SAT-06Z/SUN. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED NORTH OF KLKV-KREO-KAWH
LINE. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...SW 45-60KT IN OREGON AND SW 20-
45KT IN IDAHO THIS MORNING BECOMING SW 25-35KT BY 06Z/SUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE ID PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING...CENTERED WEST OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE OREGON THEN FAR SW IDAHO LATER TODAY. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON TODAY...BREEZY SOUTH
TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/WEISER BASIN LATER
TODAY...AND SW TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE JET WILL ALSO LIFT MOISTURE N ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO
THIS MORNING FOR LOW POPS. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SIERRA NV AND
OREGON WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT ACROSS
S-CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON SO JUST GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH FOR THE
MAGIC VALLEY AREA...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS EVENING
EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT TO STRENGTHEN AND
THE SURFACE LOW TO FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /WITH GUSTY WINDS/ ACROSS IDAHO ZONES.

MILD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE AND WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN. THEN AN
UPPER IMPULSE /WITHIN THE BROAD WESTERN UPPER TROUGH/ WILL DIG
THROUGH THE PACNW SUNDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM UP TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
TODAY...TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY ACROSS BAKER AND
HARNEY COUNTIES. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES...SO PATCHY SMOKE IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA
FROM THE GRANT/BAKER COUNTY BORDER TO ADAMS/VALLEY COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
INLAND. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MODELS SHOW ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SO THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 291539
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
939 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM OCCURRED IN PAYETTE COUNTY/ID AROUND
SUNRISE WITH KCBX RADAR STILL SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN PAYETTE...
WASHINGTON...AND ADAMS COUNTIES AT 9 AM.  THE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS
MOVING EAST BUT THE SHOWERS THEMSELVES WERE MOVING NNE.  THIS
ACTIVITY WAS NOT WITH THE COLD FRONT.  THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER.
LATEST ESTIMATE HAS IT PASSING THROUGH ERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...
THE IDAHO TREASURE VALLEY 6-8 PM MDT...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO 10
PM TO MIDNIGHT.  FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND
COOLING...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND
IT...ESPECIALLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE.  CLOUDS AND LINGERING WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT BUT SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY
IN ALL AREAS.  A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL STAY OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.
ALL NEXT WEEK KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.   A REINFORCEMENT OF THE
TROUGH IS SEEN ABOUT NEXT FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE.
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF KBNO-KMYL. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT...EXCEPT GUSTS TO
40KT THIS AFTERNOON IN SE OREGON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED BTWN
21Z/SAT-06Z/SUN. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED NORTH OF KLKV-KREO-KAWH
LINE. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...SW 45-60KT IN OREGON AND SW 20-
45KT IN IDAHO THIS MORNING BECOMING SW 25-35KT BY 06Z/SUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE ID PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING...CENTERED WEST OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE OREGON THEN FAR SW IDAHO LATER TODAY. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON TODAY...BREEZY SOUTH
TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/WEISER BASIN LATER
TODAY...AND SW TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE JET WILL ALSO LIFT MOISTURE N ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO
THIS MORNING FOR LOW POPS. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SIERRA NV AND
OREGON WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT ACROSS
S-CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON SO JUST GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH FOR THE
MAGIC VALLEY AREA...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS EVENING
EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT TO STRENGTHEN AND
THE SURFACE LOW TO FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /WITH GUSTY WINDS/ ACROSS IDAHO ZONES.

MILD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE AND WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN. THEN AN
UPPER IMPULSE /WITHIN THE BROAD WESTERN UPPER TROUGH/ WILL DIG
THROUGH THE PACNW SUNDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM UP TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
TODAY...TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY ACROSS BAKER AND
HARNEY COUNTIES. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES...SO PATCHY SMOKE IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA
FROM THE GRANT/BAKER COUNTY BORDER TO ADAMS/VALLEY COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
INLAND. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MODELS SHOW ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SO THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 291539
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
939 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM OCCURRED IN PAYETTE COUNTY/ID AROUND
SUNRISE WITH KCBX RADAR STILL SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN PAYETTE...
WASHINGTON...AND ADAMS COUNTIES AT 9 AM.  THE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS
MOVING EAST BUT THE SHOWERS THEMSELVES WERE MOVING NNE.  THIS
ACTIVITY WAS NOT WITH THE COLD FRONT.  THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER.
LATEST ESTIMATE HAS IT PASSING THROUGH ERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...
THE IDAHO TREASURE VALLEY 6-8 PM MDT...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO 10
PM TO MIDNIGHT.  FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND
COOLING...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND
IT...ESPECIALLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE.  CLOUDS AND LINGERING WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT BUT SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY
IN ALL AREAS.  A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL STAY OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.
ALL NEXT WEEK KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.   A REINFORCEMENT OF THE
TROUGH IS SEEN ABOUT NEXT FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE.
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF KBNO-KMYL. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT...EXCEPT GUSTS TO
40KT THIS AFTERNOON IN SE OREGON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED BTWN
21Z/SAT-06Z/SUN. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED NORTH OF KLKV-KREO-KAWH
LINE. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...SW 45-60KT IN OREGON AND SW 20-
45KT IN IDAHO THIS MORNING BECOMING SW 25-35KT BY 06Z/SUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE ID PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING...CENTERED WEST OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE OREGON THEN FAR SW IDAHO LATER TODAY. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON TODAY...BREEZY SOUTH
TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/WEISER BASIN LATER
TODAY...AND SW TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE JET WILL ALSO LIFT MOISTURE N ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO
THIS MORNING FOR LOW POPS. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SIERRA NV AND
OREGON WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT ACROSS
S-CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON SO JUST GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH FOR THE
MAGIC VALLEY AREA...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS EVENING
EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT TO STRENGTHEN AND
THE SURFACE LOW TO FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /WITH GUSTY WINDS/ ACROSS IDAHO ZONES.

MILD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE AND WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN. THEN AN
UPPER IMPULSE /WITHIN THE BROAD WESTERN UPPER TROUGH/ WILL DIG
THROUGH THE PACNW SUNDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM UP TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
TODAY...TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY ACROSS BAKER AND
HARNEY COUNTIES. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES...SO PATCHY SMOKE IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA
FROM THE GRANT/BAKER COUNTY BORDER TO ADAMS/VALLEY COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
INLAND. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MODELS SHOW ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SO THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 291539
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
939 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM OCCURRED IN PAYETTE COUNTY/ID AROUND
SUNRISE WITH KCBX RADAR STILL SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN PAYETTE...
WASHINGTON...AND ADAMS COUNTIES AT 9 AM.  THE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS
MOVING EAST BUT THE SHOWERS THEMSELVES WERE MOVING NNE.  THIS
ACTIVITY WAS NOT WITH THE COLD FRONT.  THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER.
LATEST ESTIMATE HAS IT PASSING THROUGH ERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...
THE IDAHO TREASURE VALLEY 6-8 PM MDT...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO 10
PM TO MIDNIGHT.  FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND
COOLING...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND
IT...ESPECIALLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE.  CLOUDS AND LINGERING WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT BUT SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY
IN ALL AREAS.  A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL STAY OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.
ALL NEXT WEEK KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.   A REINFORCEMENT OF THE
TROUGH IS SEEN ABOUT NEXT FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE.
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF KBNO-KMYL. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT...EXCEPT GUSTS TO
40KT THIS AFTERNOON IN SE OREGON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED BTWN
21Z/SAT-06Z/SUN. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED NORTH OF KLKV-KREO-KAWH
LINE. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...SW 45-60KT IN OREGON AND SW 20-
45KT IN IDAHO THIS MORNING BECOMING SW 25-35KT BY 06Z/SUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE ID PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING...CENTERED WEST OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE OREGON THEN FAR SW IDAHO LATER TODAY. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON TODAY...BREEZY SOUTH
TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/WEISER BASIN LATER
TODAY...AND SW TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE JET WILL ALSO LIFT MOISTURE N ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO
THIS MORNING FOR LOW POPS. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SIERRA NV AND
OREGON WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT ACROSS
S-CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON SO JUST GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH FOR THE
MAGIC VALLEY AREA...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS EVENING
EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT TO STRENGTHEN AND
THE SURFACE LOW TO FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /WITH GUSTY WINDS/ ACROSS IDAHO ZONES.

MILD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE AND WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN. THEN AN
UPPER IMPULSE /WITHIN THE BROAD WESTERN UPPER TROUGH/ WILL DIG
THROUGH THE PACNW SUNDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM UP TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
TODAY...TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY ACROSS BAKER AND
HARNEY COUNTIES. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES...SO PATCHY SMOKE IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA
FROM THE GRANT/BAKER COUNTY BORDER TO ADAMS/VALLEY COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
INLAND. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MODELS SHOW ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SO THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS66 KMFR 291538
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS MOVED ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
NOT QUITE REACHED THE STRENGTH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, WINDS
ELSEWHERE ARE RIGHT ON TRACK. PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY LESS
INLAND, BUT AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, AS WELL AS
IN THE UMPQUA AND ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES, HAVE MET
EXPECTATIONS. REPORTS THIS MORNING HAVE CONFIRMED THAT ALL MAJOR
WILDFIRES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE RECEIVED A WETTING RAIN, AND
MUCH OF THE SMOKE HAS FINALLY BEEN SWEPT OUT OF THE REGION. HAVE
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY, MAINLY TO
BRING THINGS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.  THE MOST IMPACTING
CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS, GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST,
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS OF MVFR
VIS/CIGS FROM THE CASCADES WEST THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... THE SURFACE
LOW HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
THUS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECAST. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS, WITH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD VERTICAL
MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN, SOME ISOLATED STORM FORCE
GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, HAVE
DROPPED THE STORM WARNING. SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
EXPECTED WINDS, WITH VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN
THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. -BPN/CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$

BPN/CC/DW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 291538
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS MOVED ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
NOT QUITE REACHED THE STRENGTH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, WINDS
ELSEWHERE ARE RIGHT ON TRACK. PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY LESS
INLAND, BUT AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, AS WELL AS
IN THE UMPQUA AND ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES, HAVE MET
EXPECTATIONS. REPORTS THIS MORNING HAVE CONFIRMED THAT ALL MAJOR
WILDFIRES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE RECEIVED A WETTING RAIN, AND
MUCH OF THE SMOKE HAS FINALLY BEEN SWEPT OUT OF THE REGION. HAVE
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY, MAINLY TO
BRING THINGS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.  THE MOST IMPACTING
CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS, GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST,
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS OF MVFR
VIS/CIGS FROM THE CASCADES WEST THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... THE SURFACE
LOW HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
THUS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECAST. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS, WITH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD VERTICAL
MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN, SOME ISOLATED STORM FORCE
GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, HAVE
DROPPED THE STORM WARNING. SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
EXPECTED WINDS, WITH VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN
THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. -BPN/CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$

BPN/CC/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 291538
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS MOVED ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
NOT QUITE REACHED THE STRENGTH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, WINDS
ELSEWHERE ARE RIGHT ON TRACK. PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY LESS
INLAND, BUT AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, AS WELL AS
IN THE UMPQUA AND ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES, HAVE MET
EXPECTATIONS. REPORTS THIS MORNING HAVE CONFIRMED THAT ALL MAJOR
WILDFIRES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE RECEIVED A WETTING RAIN, AND
MUCH OF THE SMOKE HAS FINALLY BEEN SWEPT OUT OF THE REGION. HAVE
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY, MAINLY TO
BRING THINGS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.  THE MOST IMPACTING
CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS, GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST,
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS OF MVFR
VIS/CIGS FROM THE CASCADES WEST THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... THE SURFACE
LOW HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
THUS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECAST. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS, WITH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD VERTICAL
MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN, SOME ISOLATED STORM FORCE
GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, HAVE
DROPPED THE STORM WARNING. SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
EXPECTED WINDS, WITH VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN
THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. -BPN/CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$

BPN/CC/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 291538
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS MOVED ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
NOT QUITE REACHED THE STRENGTH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, WINDS
ELSEWHERE ARE RIGHT ON TRACK. PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY LESS
INLAND, BUT AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, AS WELL AS
IN THE UMPQUA AND ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES, HAVE MET
EXPECTATIONS. REPORTS THIS MORNING HAVE CONFIRMED THAT ALL MAJOR
WILDFIRES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE RECEIVED A WETTING RAIN, AND
MUCH OF THE SMOKE HAS FINALLY BEEN SWEPT OUT OF THE REGION. HAVE
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY, MAINLY TO
BRING THINGS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.  THE MOST IMPACTING
CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS, GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST,
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS OF MVFR
VIS/CIGS FROM THE CASCADES WEST THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... THE SURFACE
LOW HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
THUS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECAST. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS, WITH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD VERTICAL
MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN, SOME ISOLATED STORM FORCE
GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, HAVE
DROPPED THE STORM WARNING. SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
EXPECTED WINDS, WITH VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN
THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. -BPN/CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$

BPN/CC/DW



000
FXUS66 KPDT 291206 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
506 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE OREGON COAST WILL LIFT NEWD INTO NW WASHINGTON AND DEAMPLIFY AS
IT MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOME RAIN ALONG THE CASCADES AND GUSTY SW
WINDS FROM MID MORNING UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH LITTLE RAIN
EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT SOME BLOWING DUST AS WELL.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS...YAKIMA VALLEY AND COLUMBIA BASIN. LOOKING AT THE PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WIND TODAY WILL
BE OVER THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND SIMCOE HIGHLANDS WITH GUST POTENTIAL
REACHING 50 TO 55 MPH LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MAKES SENSE BECAUSE THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING. AS A
SECOND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT FOR SUNDAY TO
REFLECT THE MODELS WETTER TRENDING...AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVER A WIDE AREA WHICH WOULD REALLY HELP WITH THE ONGOING FIRES. BY
MONDAY THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. 78

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY..THE AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL
BE BROAD AND SHALLOW WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER
LOW WILL BE OFF THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND WILL SINK
SOUTH, ENDING UP NEAR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET VERY FAR PAST THE
CASCADE CREST THOUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND TURN THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. THE GFS SHOWS THE IMPULSE CARVING THE TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF IS LESS VIGOROUS WITH THIS IMPULSE AND DOES NOT
SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION BUT DOES DEEPEN THE TROUGH SOMEWHAT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH
STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE REST OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS HOWEVER A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL CAUSE
MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST AT KPSC, KALW,
KPDT AND KYKM. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM 17Z TO 01Z BEFORE WINDING DOWN TO BELOW 15 KTS BY 04Z.
KDLS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
DUE TO THE EAST/WEST ORIENTATION OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BEING
SOMEWHAT SHELTERED FROM THE SOUTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS WILL BE
GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE CONFINED TODAY TO IN AND NEAR THE CASCADES WITH KDLS HAVING -SHRA
THROUGH 20Z AND KRDM AND KBDN HAVING VCSH THROUGH 19Z. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING -SHRA TO KDLS AND KYKM AFTER 08Z. PERRY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  81  54  72  50 /  10  10  50  10
ALW  83  61  73  54 /  10  10  60  10
PSC  83  58  76  56 /  10  10  60  10
YKM  74  53  70  48 /  20  50  40  10
HRI  85  57  74  53 /  10  10  50  10
ELN  74  53  72  50 /  30  50  50  10
RDM  77  48  67  39 /  20  10  50  10
LGD  83  47  69  46 /  20  10  50  10
GCD  82  46  71  36 /  10  10  40  10
DLS  80  61  75  56 /  30  70  70  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ044-507-508.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WAZ641-643-645-675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WAZ027>029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WAZ027>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78/83/83




000
FXUS66 KPDT 291206 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
506 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE OREGON COAST WILL LIFT NEWD INTO NW WASHINGTON AND DEAMPLIFY AS
IT MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOME RAIN ALONG THE CASCADES AND GUSTY SW
WINDS FROM MID MORNING UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH LITTLE RAIN
EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT SOME BLOWING DUST AS WELL.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS...YAKIMA VALLEY AND COLUMBIA BASIN. LOOKING AT THE PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WIND TODAY WILL
BE OVER THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND SIMCOE HIGHLANDS WITH GUST POTENTIAL
REACHING 50 TO 55 MPH LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MAKES SENSE BECAUSE THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING. AS A
SECOND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT FOR SUNDAY TO
REFLECT THE MODELS WETTER TRENDING...AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVER A WIDE AREA WHICH WOULD REALLY HELP WITH THE ONGOING FIRES. BY
MONDAY THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. 78

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY..THE AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL
BE BROAD AND SHALLOW WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER
LOW WILL BE OFF THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND WILL SINK
SOUTH, ENDING UP NEAR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET VERY FAR PAST THE
CASCADE CREST THOUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND TURN THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. THE GFS SHOWS THE IMPULSE CARVING THE TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF IS LESS VIGOROUS WITH THIS IMPULSE AND DOES NOT
SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION BUT DOES DEEPEN THE TROUGH SOMEWHAT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH
STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE REST OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS HOWEVER A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL CAUSE
MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST AT KPSC, KALW,
KPDT AND KYKM. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM 17Z TO 01Z BEFORE WINDING DOWN TO BELOW 15 KTS BY 04Z.
KDLS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
DUE TO THE EAST/WEST ORIENTATION OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BEING
SOMEWHAT SHELTERED FROM THE SOUTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS WILL BE
GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE CONFINED TODAY TO IN AND NEAR THE CASCADES WITH KDLS HAVING -SHRA
THROUGH 20Z AND KRDM AND KBDN HAVING VCSH THROUGH 19Z. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING -SHRA TO KDLS AND KYKM AFTER 08Z. PERRY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  81  54  72  50 /  10  10  50  10
ALW  83  61  73  54 /  10  10  60  10
PSC  83  58  76  56 /  10  10  60  10
YKM  74  53  70  48 /  20  50  40  10
HRI  85  57  74  53 /  10  10  50  10
ELN  74  53  72  50 /  30  50  50  10
RDM  77  48  67  39 /  20  10  50  10
LGD  83  47  69  46 /  20  10  50  10
GCD  82  46  71  36 /  10  10  40  10
DLS  80  61  75  56 /  30  70  70  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ044-507-508.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WAZ641-643-645-675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WAZ027>029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WAZ027>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78/83/83



000
FXUS66 KMFR 291146
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.  THE MOST IMPACTING
CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS, GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST,
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS OF MVFR
VIS/CIGS FROM THE CASCADES WEST THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... A STRONG LOW
WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INSIDE OF 130 WEST LONGITUDE
NEAR 42 NORTH LATITUDE AND THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING A
SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE 925 MB WINDS MORE
PARALLEL TO THE COAST...BUT STILL IN EXCESS OF 50KT NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. WITH GOOD VERTICAL MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN
THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE SURFACE AS GUSTS AND HAVE KEPT THE
STORM WARNING...MAINLY FOR GUSTS...FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...WITH VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY
PEAKING IN THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$

DW/CC



000
FXUS66 KMFR 291146
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.  THE MOST IMPACTING
CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS, GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST,
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS OF MVFR
VIS/CIGS FROM THE CASCADES WEST THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... A STRONG LOW
WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INSIDE OF 130 WEST LONGITUDE
NEAR 42 NORTH LATITUDE AND THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING A
SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE 925 MB WINDS MORE
PARALLEL TO THE COAST...BUT STILL IN EXCESS OF 50KT NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. WITH GOOD VERTICAL MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN
THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE SURFACE AS GUSTS AND HAVE KEPT THE
STORM WARNING...MAINLY FOR GUSTS...FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...WITH VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY
PEAKING IN THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$

DW/CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 291146
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.  THE MOST IMPACTING
CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS, GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST,
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS OF MVFR
VIS/CIGS FROM THE CASCADES WEST THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... A STRONG LOW
WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INSIDE OF 130 WEST LONGITUDE
NEAR 42 NORTH LATITUDE AND THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING A
SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE 925 MB WINDS MORE
PARALLEL TO THE COAST...BUT STILL IN EXCESS OF 50KT NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. WITH GOOD VERTICAL MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN
THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE SURFACE AS GUSTS AND HAVE KEPT THE
STORM WARNING...MAINLY FOR GUSTS...FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...WITH VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY
PEAKING IN THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$

DW/CC



000
FXUS66 KMFR 291146
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.  THE MOST IMPACTING
CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS, GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST,
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS OF MVFR
VIS/CIGS FROM THE CASCADES WEST THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... A STRONG LOW
WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INSIDE OF 130 WEST LONGITUDE
NEAR 42 NORTH LATITUDE AND THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING A
SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE 925 MB WINDS MORE
PARALLEL TO THE COAST...BUT STILL IN EXCESS OF 50KT NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. WITH GOOD VERTICAL MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN
THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE SURFACE AS GUSTS AND HAVE KEPT THE
STORM WARNING...MAINLY FOR GUSTS...FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...WITH VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY
PEAKING IN THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$

DW/CC




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291008
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
308 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FEW PREFRONTAL SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE NORTH VALLEY
THIS MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND MOVING ONSHORE. RADAR ALREADY
SHOWING SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ACTIVITY OVER THE COAST RANGE AND
EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALTHOUGH THE RAINBAND IS NARROW...ITS
CURRENTLY MOVING MUCH MORE NORTH THAN EAST SO IT WILL BE SLOW TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND AND MAY DROP 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES OF RAIN PER
HOUR WITH MORE IN EMBEDDED STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY RAIN IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL
BAND...SO THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE BREAK IN RAIN FROM THE TIME THE
BAND MOVES THROUGH TO WHEN ANY SHOWERS BEGIN TO POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE DRIED THE FORECAST OUT QUITE A
BIT 18Z TODAY TO 00Z SUNDAY BUT THE RAIN MAY HAVE MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER THAN EVEN THAT.

THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF NORTH BEND ACCORDING TO LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. BASED ON COMPARISON OF BUOY OBS AND 06Z NAM AND GFS
FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE THE LOW IS AROUND 989 MB RIGHT NOW...OR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND GFS HAVE. THE 08Z HRRR SHOWS A
STRONGER LOW CURRENTLY AND FORECASTS THE PRESSURE DROPPING TO 985 MB
AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE OREGON COAST...ABOUT 100 MILES
OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD BE 4 MB STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND GFS CURRENTLY
SHOW BUT WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND SEEMS FAIRLY REALISTIC. HRRR ALSO
SHOWS RATHER IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW LATE THIS
MORNING WITH 6+ MB IN 3 HOURS OVER THE EXTREME NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON AREAS...MOSTLY CENTERED AROUND CLATSOP AND PACIFIC
COUNTIES. ALSO SEEING HIGH PRESSURE RISES JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. WILL KEEP HIGH WIND
WARNINGS IN PLACE AS IS. PRESSURE RISES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE VALLEY ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT PEAKING
ONLY AT ABOUT 4 TO 5 MB BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WINDY
NONETHELESS. 850 MB WINDS IN THE VALLEY ARE FORECAST TO BE 40 TO 50
KT WHEN THIS MORNING`S RAIN COMES THROUGH...SO ANY CONVECTION COULD
MIX DOWN SOME GOOD GUSTS. WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY AS IS SINCE THIS
IS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WIND EVENT FOR LATE AUGUST...EVEN THOUGH
TECHNICAL CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. BOWEN

.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
FALL-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT OVER REGION...WITH RAIN INCREASING
THIS AM. WILL SEE FRONT PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AM...
WITH INCREASING S WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON COAST AND
OVER COAST RANGE...WITH S WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 KT FOR THOSE
AREAS AND LESSER WINDS FURTHER INLAND. AT 2 AM...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. BUT WILL SEE INCREASING MVFR ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z.
RAIN WILL END BY 18Z FOR MOST AREAS...WITH CIGS BREAKING UP A BIT
AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS MOVES INTO REGION FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TRANSITION BACK TO VFR AT
TIMES AFTER 20Z. CIGS WILL LOWER BACK TO MVFR TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
FRONT AND MORE RAIN PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR...WITH RAIN UNTIL 18Z...THEN LIKELY TO
SEE A MIXTURE OF VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AS MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
PUSHES INTO REGION. WILL HAVE S WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 KT BETWEEN
17Z AND 23Z. WINDS EASE AFTER 00Z...BUT WILL HAVE INCREASING MVFR
AS RAIN INCREASES LATER SAT NIGHT.      ROCKEY.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WELL INITIALIZED WITH THE STRONG
LOW PRES NOW SITTING ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEWPORT THIS AM.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND INTO
NW WASHINGTON TODAY. BUT APPEARS THE ACTUAL LOW IS STRONGER THAN
THE MODELS INDICATE. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS IT
MOVES NE...STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN S OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER.
SO...HAVE ISSUED STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS S OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER WHERE THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR 50 KT
GUSTS. REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A GALE WARNING.

SEAS WILL BE BUILDING AS WINDS INCREASE. STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SEAS
TO BE RUNNING AT 13 TO 17 FT BY MID TO LATE THIS AM. SEAS HOLD IN
THAT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DROP BACK THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL EASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BELOW 25 KT BY 8 PM.
SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE AS WINDS EASE...PROBABLY AROUND 8 TO 10 FT
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING 6 TO
9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.     ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON PDT TODAY

     FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO NOON TODAY ON ALL COASTAL WATERS
 SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM TODAY ON ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
 8 PM TODAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR CONDITIONS
 TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291008
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
308 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FEW PREFRONTAL SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE NORTH VALLEY
THIS MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND MOVING ONSHORE. RADAR ALREADY
SHOWING SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ACTIVITY OVER THE COAST RANGE AND
EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALTHOUGH THE RAINBAND IS NARROW...ITS
CURRENTLY MOVING MUCH MORE NORTH THAN EAST SO IT WILL BE SLOW TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND AND MAY DROP 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES OF RAIN PER
HOUR WITH MORE IN EMBEDDED STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY RAIN IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL
BAND...SO THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE BREAK IN RAIN FROM THE TIME THE
BAND MOVES THROUGH TO WHEN ANY SHOWERS BEGIN TO POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE DRIED THE FORECAST OUT QUITE A
BIT 18Z TODAY TO 00Z SUNDAY BUT THE RAIN MAY HAVE MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER THAN EVEN THAT.

THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF NORTH BEND ACCORDING TO LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. BASED ON COMPARISON OF BUOY OBS AND 06Z NAM AND GFS
FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE THE LOW IS AROUND 989 MB RIGHT NOW...OR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND GFS HAVE. THE 08Z HRRR SHOWS A
STRONGER LOW CURRENTLY AND FORECASTS THE PRESSURE DROPPING TO 985 MB
AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE OREGON COAST...ABOUT 100 MILES
OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD BE 4 MB STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND GFS CURRENTLY
SHOW BUT WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND SEEMS FAIRLY REALISTIC. HRRR ALSO
SHOWS RATHER IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW LATE THIS
MORNING WITH 6+ MB IN 3 HOURS OVER THE EXTREME NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON AREAS...MOSTLY CENTERED AROUND CLATSOP AND PACIFIC
COUNTIES. ALSO SEEING HIGH PRESSURE RISES JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. WILL KEEP HIGH WIND
WARNINGS IN PLACE AS IS. PRESSURE RISES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE VALLEY ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT PEAKING
ONLY AT ABOUT 4 TO 5 MB BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WINDY
NONETHELESS. 850 MB WINDS IN THE VALLEY ARE FORECAST TO BE 40 TO 50
KT WHEN THIS MORNING`S RAIN COMES THROUGH...SO ANY CONVECTION COULD
MIX DOWN SOME GOOD GUSTS. WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY AS IS SINCE THIS
IS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WIND EVENT FOR LATE AUGUST...EVEN THOUGH
TECHNICAL CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. BOWEN

.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
FALL-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT OVER REGION...WITH RAIN INCREASING
THIS AM. WILL SEE FRONT PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AM...
WITH INCREASING S WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON COAST AND
OVER COAST RANGE...WITH S WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 KT FOR THOSE
AREAS AND LESSER WINDS FURTHER INLAND. AT 2 AM...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. BUT WILL SEE INCREASING MVFR ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z.
RAIN WILL END BY 18Z FOR MOST AREAS...WITH CIGS BREAKING UP A BIT
AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS MOVES INTO REGION FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TRANSITION BACK TO VFR AT
TIMES AFTER 20Z. CIGS WILL LOWER BACK TO MVFR TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
FRONT AND MORE RAIN PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR...WITH RAIN UNTIL 18Z...THEN LIKELY TO
SEE A MIXTURE OF VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AS MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
PUSHES INTO REGION. WILL HAVE S WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 KT BETWEEN
17Z AND 23Z. WINDS EASE AFTER 00Z...BUT WILL HAVE INCREASING MVFR
AS RAIN INCREASES LATER SAT NIGHT.      ROCKEY.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WELL INITIALIZED WITH THE STRONG
LOW PRES NOW SITTING ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEWPORT THIS AM.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND INTO
NW WASHINGTON TODAY. BUT APPEARS THE ACTUAL LOW IS STRONGER THAN
THE MODELS INDICATE. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS IT
MOVES NE...STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN S OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER.
SO...HAVE ISSUED STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS S OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER WHERE THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR 50 KT
GUSTS. REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A GALE WARNING.

SEAS WILL BE BUILDING AS WINDS INCREASE. STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SEAS
TO BE RUNNING AT 13 TO 17 FT BY MID TO LATE THIS AM. SEAS HOLD IN
THAT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DROP BACK THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL EASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BELOW 25 KT BY 8 PM.
SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE AS WINDS EASE...PROBABLY AROUND 8 TO 10 FT
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING 6 TO
9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.     ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON PDT TODAY

     FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO NOON TODAY ON ALL COASTAL WATERS
 SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM TODAY ON ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
 8 PM TODAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR CONDITIONS
 TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291008
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
308 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FEW PREFRONTAL SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE NORTH VALLEY
THIS MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND MOVING ONSHORE. RADAR ALREADY
SHOWING SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ACTIVITY OVER THE COAST RANGE AND
EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALTHOUGH THE RAINBAND IS NARROW...ITS
CURRENTLY MOVING MUCH MORE NORTH THAN EAST SO IT WILL BE SLOW TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND AND MAY DROP 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES OF RAIN PER
HOUR WITH MORE IN EMBEDDED STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY RAIN IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL
BAND...SO THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE BREAK IN RAIN FROM THE TIME THE
BAND MOVES THROUGH TO WHEN ANY SHOWERS BEGIN TO POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE DRIED THE FORECAST OUT QUITE A
BIT 18Z TODAY TO 00Z SUNDAY BUT THE RAIN MAY HAVE MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER THAN EVEN THAT.

THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF NORTH BEND ACCORDING TO LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. BASED ON COMPARISON OF BUOY OBS AND 06Z NAM AND GFS
FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE THE LOW IS AROUND 989 MB RIGHT NOW...OR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND GFS HAVE. THE 08Z HRRR SHOWS A
STRONGER LOW CURRENTLY AND FORECASTS THE PRESSURE DROPPING TO 985 MB
AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE OREGON COAST...ABOUT 100 MILES
OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD BE 4 MB STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND GFS CURRENTLY
SHOW BUT WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND SEEMS FAIRLY REALISTIC. HRRR ALSO
SHOWS RATHER IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW LATE THIS
MORNING WITH 6+ MB IN 3 HOURS OVER THE EXTREME NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON AREAS...MOSTLY CENTERED AROUND CLATSOP AND PACIFIC
COUNTIES. ALSO SEEING HIGH PRESSURE RISES JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. WILL KEEP HIGH WIND
WARNINGS IN PLACE AS IS. PRESSURE RISES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE VALLEY ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT PEAKING
ONLY AT ABOUT 4 TO 5 MB BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WINDY
NONETHELESS. 850 MB WINDS IN THE VALLEY ARE FORECAST TO BE 40 TO 50
KT WHEN THIS MORNING`S RAIN COMES THROUGH...SO ANY CONVECTION COULD
MIX DOWN SOME GOOD GUSTS. WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY AS IS SINCE THIS
IS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WIND EVENT FOR LATE AUGUST...EVEN THOUGH
TECHNICAL CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. BOWEN

.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
FALL-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT OVER REGION...WITH RAIN INCREASING
THIS AM. WILL SEE FRONT PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AM...
WITH INCREASING S WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON COAST AND
OVER COAST RANGE...WITH S WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 KT FOR THOSE
AREAS AND LESSER WINDS FURTHER INLAND. AT 2 AM...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. BUT WILL SEE INCREASING MVFR ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z.
RAIN WILL END BY 18Z FOR MOST AREAS...WITH CIGS BREAKING UP A BIT
AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS MOVES INTO REGION FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TRANSITION BACK TO VFR AT
TIMES AFTER 20Z. CIGS WILL LOWER BACK TO MVFR TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
FRONT AND MORE RAIN PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR...WITH RAIN UNTIL 18Z...THEN LIKELY TO
SEE A MIXTURE OF VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AS MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
PUSHES INTO REGION. WILL HAVE S WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 KT BETWEEN
17Z AND 23Z. WINDS EASE AFTER 00Z...BUT WILL HAVE INCREASING MVFR
AS RAIN INCREASES LATER SAT NIGHT.      ROCKEY.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WELL INITIALIZED WITH THE STRONG
LOW PRES NOW SITTING ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEWPORT THIS AM.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND INTO
NW WASHINGTON TODAY. BUT APPEARS THE ACTUAL LOW IS STRONGER THAN
THE MODELS INDICATE. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS IT
MOVES NE...STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN S OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER.
SO...HAVE ISSUED STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS S OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER WHERE THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR 50 KT
GUSTS. REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A GALE WARNING.

SEAS WILL BE BUILDING AS WINDS INCREASE. STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SEAS
TO BE RUNNING AT 13 TO 17 FT BY MID TO LATE THIS AM. SEAS HOLD IN
THAT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DROP BACK THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL EASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BELOW 25 KT BY 8 PM.
SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE AS WINDS EASE...PROBABLY AROUND 8 TO 10 FT
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING 6 TO
9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.     ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON PDT TODAY

     FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO NOON TODAY ON ALL COASTAL WATERS
 SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM TODAY ON ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
 8 PM TODAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR CONDITIONS
 TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291008
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
308 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FEW PREFRONTAL SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE NORTH VALLEY
THIS MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND MOVING ONSHORE. RADAR ALREADY
SHOWING SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ACTIVITY OVER THE COAST RANGE AND
EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALTHOUGH THE RAINBAND IS NARROW...ITS
CURRENTLY MOVING MUCH MORE NORTH THAN EAST SO IT WILL BE SLOW TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND AND MAY DROP 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES OF RAIN PER
HOUR WITH MORE IN EMBEDDED STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY RAIN IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL
BAND...SO THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE BREAK IN RAIN FROM THE TIME THE
BAND MOVES THROUGH TO WHEN ANY SHOWERS BEGIN TO POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE DRIED THE FORECAST OUT QUITE A
BIT 18Z TODAY TO 00Z SUNDAY BUT THE RAIN MAY HAVE MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER THAN EVEN THAT.

THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF NORTH BEND ACCORDING TO LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. BASED ON COMPARISON OF BUOY OBS AND 06Z NAM AND GFS
FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE THE LOW IS AROUND 989 MB RIGHT NOW...OR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND GFS HAVE. THE 08Z HRRR SHOWS A
STRONGER LOW CURRENTLY AND FORECASTS THE PRESSURE DROPPING TO 985 MB
AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE OREGON COAST...ABOUT 100 MILES
OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD BE 4 MB STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND GFS CURRENTLY
SHOW BUT WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND SEEMS FAIRLY REALISTIC. HRRR ALSO
SHOWS RATHER IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW LATE THIS
MORNING WITH 6+ MB IN 3 HOURS OVER THE EXTREME NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON AREAS...MOSTLY CENTERED AROUND CLATSOP AND PACIFIC
COUNTIES. ALSO SEEING HIGH PRESSURE RISES JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. WILL KEEP HIGH WIND
WARNINGS IN PLACE AS IS. PRESSURE RISES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE VALLEY ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT PEAKING
ONLY AT ABOUT 4 TO 5 MB BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WINDY
NONETHELESS. 850 MB WINDS IN THE VALLEY ARE FORECAST TO BE 40 TO 50
KT WHEN THIS MORNING`S RAIN COMES THROUGH...SO ANY CONVECTION COULD
MIX DOWN SOME GOOD GUSTS. WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY AS IS SINCE THIS
IS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WIND EVENT FOR LATE AUGUST...EVEN THOUGH
TECHNICAL CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. BOWEN

.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
FALL-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT OVER REGION...WITH RAIN INCREASING
THIS AM. WILL SEE FRONT PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AM...
WITH INCREASING S WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON COAST AND
OVER COAST RANGE...WITH S WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 KT FOR THOSE
AREAS AND LESSER WINDS FURTHER INLAND. AT 2 AM...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. BUT WILL SEE INCREASING MVFR ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z.
RAIN WILL END BY 18Z FOR MOST AREAS...WITH CIGS BREAKING UP A BIT
AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS MOVES INTO REGION FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TRANSITION BACK TO VFR AT
TIMES AFTER 20Z. CIGS WILL LOWER BACK TO MVFR TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
FRONT AND MORE RAIN PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR...WITH RAIN UNTIL 18Z...THEN LIKELY TO
SEE A MIXTURE OF VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AS MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
PUSHES INTO REGION. WILL HAVE S WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 KT BETWEEN
17Z AND 23Z. WINDS EASE AFTER 00Z...BUT WILL HAVE INCREASING MVFR
AS RAIN INCREASES LATER SAT NIGHT.      ROCKEY.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WELL INITIALIZED WITH THE STRONG
LOW PRES NOW SITTING ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEWPORT THIS AM.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND INTO
NW WASHINGTON TODAY. BUT APPEARS THE ACTUAL LOW IS STRONGER THAN
THE MODELS INDICATE. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS IT
MOVES NE...STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN S OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER.
SO...HAVE ISSUED STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS S OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER WHERE THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR 50 KT
GUSTS. REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A GALE WARNING.

SEAS WILL BE BUILDING AS WINDS INCREASE. STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SEAS
TO BE RUNNING AT 13 TO 17 FT BY MID TO LATE THIS AM. SEAS HOLD IN
THAT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DROP BACK THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL EASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BELOW 25 KT BY 8 PM.
SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE AS WINDS EASE...PROBABLY AROUND 8 TO 10 FT
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING 6 TO
9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.     ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON PDT TODAY

     FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO NOON TODAY ON ALL COASTAL WATERS
 SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM TODAY ON ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
 8 PM TODAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR CONDITIONS
 TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291008
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
308 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FEW PREFRONTAL SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE NORTH VALLEY
THIS MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND MOVING ONSHORE. RADAR ALREADY
SHOWING SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ACTIVITY OVER THE COAST RANGE AND
EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALTHOUGH THE RAINBAND IS NARROW...ITS
CURRENTLY MOVING MUCH MORE NORTH THAN EAST SO IT WILL BE SLOW TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND AND MAY DROP 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES OF RAIN PER
HOUR WITH MORE IN EMBEDDED STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY RAIN IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL
BAND...SO THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE BREAK IN RAIN FROM THE TIME THE
BAND MOVES THROUGH TO WHEN ANY SHOWERS BEGIN TO POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE DRIED THE FORECAST OUT QUITE A
BIT 18Z TODAY TO 00Z SUNDAY BUT THE RAIN MAY HAVE MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER THAN EVEN THAT.

THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF NORTH BEND ACCORDING TO LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. BASED ON COMPARISON OF BUOY OBS AND 06Z NAM AND GFS
FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE THE LOW IS AROUND 989 MB RIGHT NOW...OR
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND GFS HAVE. THE 08Z HRRR SHOWS A
STRONGER LOW CURRENTLY AND FORECASTS THE PRESSURE DROPPING TO 985 MB
AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE OREGON COAST...ABOUT 100 MILES
OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD BE 4 MB STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND GFS CURRENTLY
SHOW BUT WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND SEEMS FAIRLY REALISTIC. HRRR ALSO
SHOWS RATHER IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW LATE THIS
MORNING WITH 6+ MB IN 3 HOURS OVER THE EXTREME NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON AREAS...MOSTLY CENTERED AROUND CLATSOP AND PACIFIC
COUNTIES. ALSO SEEING HIGH PRESSURE RISES JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. WILL KEEP HIGH WIND
WARNINGS IN PLACE AS IS. PRESSURE RISES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE VALLEY ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT PEAKING
ONLY AT ABOUT 4 TO 5 MB BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WINDY
NONETHELESS. 850 MB WINDS IN THE VALLEY ARE FORECAST TO BE 40 TO 50
KT WHEN THIS MORNING`S RAIN COMES THROUGH...SO ANY CONVECTION COULD
MIX DOWN SOME GOOD GUSTS. WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY AS IS SINCE THIS
IS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WIND EVENT FOR LATE AUGUST...EVEN THOUGH
TECHNICAL CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. BOWEN

.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
FALL-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT OVER REGION...WITH RAIN INCREASING
THIS AM. WILL SEE FRONT PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AM...
WITH INCREASING S WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON COAST AND
OVER COAST RANGE...WITH S WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 KT FOR THOSE
AREAS AND LESSER WINDS FURTHER INLAND. AT 2 AM...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. BUT WILL SEE INCREASING MVFR ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z.
RAIN WILL END BY 18Z FOR MOST AREAS...WITH CIGS BREAKING UP A BIT
AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS MOVES INTO REGION FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TRANSITION BACK TO VFR AT
TIMES AFTER 20Z. CIGS WILL LOWER BACK TO MVFR TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
FRONT AND MORE RAIN PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR...WITH RAIN UNTIL 18Z...THEN LIKELY TO
SEE A MIXTURE OF VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AS MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
PUSHES INTO REGION. WILL HAVE S WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 KT BETWEEN
17Z AND 23Z. WINDS EASE AFTER 00Z...BUT WILL HAVE INCREASING MVFR
AS RAIN INCREASES LATER SAT NIGHT.      ROCKEY.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WELL INITIALIZED WITH THE STRONG
LOW PRES NOW SITTING ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEWPORT THIS AM.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND INTO
NW WASHINGTON TODAY. BUT APPEARS THE ACTUAL LOW IS STRONGER THAN
THE MODELS INDICATE. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS IT
MOVES NE...STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN S OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER.
SO...HAVE ISSUED STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS S OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER WHERE THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR 50 KT
GUSTS. REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A GALE WARNING.

SEAS WILL BE BUILDING AS WINDS INCREASE. STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SEAS
TO BE RUNNING AT 13 TO 17 FT BY MID TO LATE THIS AM. SEAS HOLD IN
THAT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DROP BACK THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL EASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BELOW 25 KT BY 8 PM.
SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE AS WINDS EASE...PROBABLY AROUND 8 TO 10 FT
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING 6 TO
9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.     ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON PDT TODAY

     FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO NOON TODAY ON ALL COASTAL WATERS
 SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM TODAY ON ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
 8 PM TODAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR CONDITIONS
 TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 291000
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE OREGON COAST WILL LIFT NEWD INTO NW WASHINGTON AND DEAMPLIFY AS
IT MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOME RAIN ALONG THE CASCADES AND GUSTY SW
WINDS FROM MID MORNING UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH LITTLE RAIN
EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT SOME BLOWING DUST AS WELL.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS...YAKIMA VALLEY AND COLUMBIA BASIN. LOOKING AT THE PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WIND TODAY WILL
BE OVER THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND SIMCOE HIGHLANDS WITH GUST POTENTIAL
REACHING 50 TO 55 MPH LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MAKES SENSE BECAUSE THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING. AS A
SECOND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT FOR SUNDAY TO
REFLECT THE MODELS WETTER TRENDING...AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVER A WIDE AREA WHICH WOULD REALLY HELP WITH THE ONGOING FIRES. BY
MONDAY THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. 78

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY..THE AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL
BE BROAD AND SHALLOW WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER
LOW WILL BE OFF THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND WILL SINK
SOUTH, ENDING UP NEAR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET VERY FAR PAST THE
CASCADE CREST THOUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND TURN THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. THE GFS SHOWS THE IMPULSE CARVING THE TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF IS LESS VIGOROUS WITH THIS IMPULSE AND DOES NOT
SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION BUT DOES DEEPEN THE TROUGH SOMEWHAT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH
STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE REST OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY TO MIDDAY SATURDAY. CEILINGS WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT 8K-
12K FEET AGL BUT AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIME. SMOKE FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AT ANY TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
APPROACH THE CASCADES AFTER 10Z BUT THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS
AT ANY TAF SITE IS FAIRLY LOW DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING. A SIGNIFICANT
WIND INCREASE IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY OF 20-
30 KTS AND HIGHER GUST RESULTING IN BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED SURFACE
VISIBILITIES. 91/93


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  81  54  72  50 /  10  10  50  10
ALW  83  61  73  54 /  10  10  60  10
PSC  83  58  76  56 /  10  10  60  10
YKM  74  53  70  48 /  20  50  40  10
HRI  85  57  74  53 /  10  10  50  10
ELN  74  53  72  50 /  30  50  50  10
RDM  77  48  67  39 /  20  10  50  10
LGD  83  47  69  46 /  20  10  50  10
GCD  82  46  71  36 /  10  10  40  10
DLS  80  61  75  56 /  30  70  70  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ044-507-508.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WAZ641-643-645-675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WAZ027>029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WAZ027>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78/83/83




000
FXUS66 KPDT 291000
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE OREGON COAST WILL LIFT NEWD INTO NW WASHINGTON AND DEAMPLIFY AS
IT MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOME RAIN ALONG THE CASCADES AND GUSTY SW
WINDS FROM MID MORNING UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH LITTLE RAIN
EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT SOME BLOWING DUST AS WELL.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS...YAKIMA VALLEY AND COLUMBIA BASIN. LOOKING AT THE PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WIND TODAY WILL
BE OVER THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND SIMCOE HIGHLANDS WITH GUST POTENTIAL
REACHING 50 TO 55 MPH LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MAKES SENSE BECAUSE THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING. AS A
SECOND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT FOR SUNDAY TO
REFLECT THE MODELS WETTER TRENDING...AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVER A WIDE AREA WHICH WOULD REALLY HELP WITH THE ONGOING FIRES. BY
MONDAY THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WITH GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. 78

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY..THE AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL
BE BROAD AND SHALLOW WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER
LOW WILL BE OFF THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND WILL SINK
SOUTH, ENDING UP NEAR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET VERY FAR PAST THE
CASCADE CREST THOUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND TURN THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. THE GFS SHOWS THE IMPULSE CARVING THE TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF IS LESS VIGOROUS WITH THIS IMPULSE AND DOES NOT
SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION BUT DOES DEEPEN THE TROUGH SOMEWHAT. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH
STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE REST OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY TO MIDDAY SATURDAY. CEILINGS WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT 8K-
12K FEET AGL BUT AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIME. SMOKE FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AT ANY TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
APPROACH THE CASCADES AFTER 10Z BUT THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS
AT ANY TAF SITE IS FAIRLY LOW DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING. A SIGNIFICANT
WIND INCREASE IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY OF 20-
30 KTS AND HIGHER GUST RESULTING IN BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED SURFACE
VISIBILITIES. 91/93


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  81  54  72  50 /  10  10  50  10
ALW  83  61  73  54 /  10  10  60  10
PSC  83  58  76  56 /  10  10  60  10
YKM  74  53  70  48 /  20  50  40  10
HRI  85  57  74  53 /  10  10  50  10
ELN  74  53  72  50 /  30  50  50  10
RDM  77  48  67  39 /  20  10  50  10
LGD  83  47  69  46 /  20  10  50  10
GCD  82  46  71  36 /  10  10  40  10
DLS  80  61  75  56 /  30  70  70  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ044-507-508.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WAZ641-643-645-675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WAZ027>029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WAZ027>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78/83/83



000
FXUS65 KBOI 290910
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
310 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE ID PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING...CENTERED WEST OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE OREGON THEN FAR SW IDAHO LATER TODAY. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON TODAY...BREEZY SOUTH
TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/WEISER BASIN LATER
TODAY...AND SW TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE JET WILL ALSO LIFT MOISTURE N ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO
THIS MORNING FOR LOW POPS. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SIERRA NV AND
OREGON WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT ACROSS
S-CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON SO JUST GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH FOR THE
MAGIC VALLEY AREA...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS EVENING
EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT TO STRENGTHEN AND
THE SURFACE LOW TO FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /WITH GUSTY WINDS/ ACROSS IDAHO ZONES.

MILD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE AND WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN. THEN AN
UPPER IMPULSE /WITHIN THE BROAD WESTERN UPPER TROUGH/ WILL DIG
THROUGH THE PACNW SUNDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM UP TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
TODAY...TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY ACROSS BAKER AND
HARNEY COUNTIES. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES...SO PATCHY SMOKE IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA
FROM THE GRANT/BAKER COUNTY BORDER TO ADAMS/VALLEY COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
INLAND. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MODELS SHOW ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SO THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE...MAINLY THIS MORNING IN BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS...SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 10-20
KTS...EXCEPT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OREGON THE THE SOUTHWEST IDAHO HIGHLANDS...DECREASING AFTER 03Z.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 30-40 KTS EXCEPT UP TO 50 KTS EASTERN OREGON
AT 10K FT MSL.

SUNDAY...VFR. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS NORTH OF A KLKV-KONO-IDAHO
CITY LINE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 290910
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
310 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE ID PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING...CENTERED WEST OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE OREGON THEN FAR SW IDAHO LATER TODAY. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON TODAY...BREEZY SOUTH
TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/WEISER BASIN LATER
TODAY...AND SW TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE JET WILL ALSO LIFT MOISTURE N ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO
THIS MORNING FOR LOW POPS. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SIERRA NV AND
OREGON WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT ACROSS
S-CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON SO JUST GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH FOR THE
MAGIC VALLEY AREA...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS EVENING
EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT TO STRENGTHEN AND
THE SURFACE LOW TO FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /WITH GUSTY WINDS/ ACROSS IDAHO ZONES.

MILD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE AND WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN. THEN AN
UPPER IMPULSE /WITHIN THE BROAD WESTERN UPPER TROUGH/ WILL DIG
THROUGH THE PACNW SUNDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM UP TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
TODAY...TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY ACROSS BAKER AND
HARNEY COUNTIES. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES...SO PATCHY SMOKE IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA
FROM THE GRANT/BAKER COUNTY BORDER TO ADAMS/VALLEY COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
INLAND. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MODELS SHOW ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SO THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE...MAINLY THIS MORNING IN BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS...SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 10-20
KTS...EXCEPT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OREGON THE THE SOUTHWEST IDAHO HIGHLANDS...DECREASING AFTER 03Z.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 30-40 KTS EXCEPT UP TO 50 KTS EASTERN OREGON
AT 10K FT MSL.

SUNDAY...VFR. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS NORTH OF A KLKV-KONO-IDAHO
CITY LINE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS66 KPDT 290518 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...SATELLITE PICTURE SHOW LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT
ONSHORE. THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE FEW HOURS AS WATER VAPOR
PICTURES SHOW PIECE OF ENERGY NEAR 140W DROPPING SOUTH AND AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE IT WILL KICK LOW NEAR 130W NORTHEASTWARD AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE CASCADES BY MORNING. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST FOR SLIGHTLY SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. 93

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SOUTH TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE TROUGH AXIS ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 135
WEST LONGITUDE, BUT WILL SHIFT TO NEAR 130 WEST SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT. PATCHY SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL, WITH THICKER AREAS OF SMOKE
IN SOUTHEAST GRANT COUNTY. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY, IT
WILL KICK AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 38N/135W NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON, AND NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL OREGON WILL BE WINDS. AT THIS
TIME WINDS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL RUN IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES.
HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS WINDS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD STAY IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS COULD LOCALLY OCCUR DURING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES OF
WASHINGTON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN, BUT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. HIGH TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S, WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A DEEP
TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DROP EVEN
FURTHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BY MIDWEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE CASCADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN
A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO MIDDAY SATURDAY.
CEILINGS WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT 8K-12K FEET AGL BUT AGAIN
COULD SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. SMOKE
FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT ANY TAF SITE.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACH THE CASCADES AFTER
10Z BUT THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS AT ANY TAF SITE IS FAIRLY
LOW DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING. A SIGNIFICANT WIND INCREASE IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY OF 20-30 KTS AND HIGHER GUST
RESULTING IN BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES. 91/93

FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CASCADES AND
EAST SLOPES OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  82  54  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALW  66  83  60  74 /  10  20  10  40
PSC  60  83  52  77 /  10  10  20  30
YKM  60  73  50  70 /  10  20  40  20
HRI  61  84  53  76 /   0  10  10  30
ELN  58  73  51  71 /  20  30  50  30
RDM  57  77  44  68 /  10  30  20  20
LGD  53  84  47  69 /  10  20  10  30
GCD  56  81  46  73 /  10  20  10  20
DLS  64  79  60  73 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ510-511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-
     507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-507-508.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ641-643-
     645-675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WAZ027>029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ027>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

93/91/91



000
FXUS66 KPDT 290518 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...SATELLITE PICTURE SHOW LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT
ONSHORE. THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE FEW HOURS AS WATER VAPOR
PICTURES SHOW PIECE OF ENERGY NEAR 140W DROPPING SOUTH AND AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE IT WILL KICK LOW NEAR 130W NORTHEASTWARD AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE CASCADES BY MORNING. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST FOR SLIGHTLY SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. 93

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SOUTH TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE TROUGH AXIS ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 135
WEST LONGITUDE, BUT WILL SHIFT TO NEAR 130 WEST SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT. PATCHY SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL, WITH THICKER AREAS OF SMOKE
IN SOUTHEAST GRANT COUNTY. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY, IT
WILL KICK AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 38N/135W NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON, AND NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL OREGON WILL BE WINDS. AT THIS
TIME WINDS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL RUN IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES.
HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS WINDS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD STAY IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS COULD LOCALLY OCCUR DURING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES OF
WASHINGTON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN, BUT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. HIGH TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S, WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A DEEP
TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DROP EVEN
FURTHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BY MIDWEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE CASCADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN
A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO MIDDAY SATURDAY.
CEILINGS WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT 8K-12K FEET AGL BUT AGAIN
COULD SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. SMOKE
FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT ANY TAF SITE.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACH THE CASCADES AFTER
10Z BUT THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS AT ANY TAF SITE IS FAIRLY
LOW DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING. A SIGNIFICANT WIND INCREASE IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY OF 20-30 KTS AND HIGHER GUST
RESULTING IN BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES. 91/93

FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CASCADES AND
EAST SLOPES OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  82  54  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALW  66  83  60  74 /  10  20  10  40
PSC  60  83  52  77 /  10  10  20  30
YKM  60  73  50  70 /  10  20  40  20
HRI  61  84  53  76 /   0  10  10  30
ELN  58  73  51  71 /  20  30  50  30
RDM  57  77  44  68 /  10  30  20  20
LGD  53  84  47  69 /  10  20  10  30
GCD  56  81  46  73 /  10  20  10  20
DLS  64  79  60  73 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ510-511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-
     507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-507-508.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ641-643-
     645-675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WAZ027>029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ027>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

93/91/91




000
FXUS66 KPDT 290518 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...SATELLITE PICTURE SHOW LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT
ONSHORE. THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE FEW HOURS AS WATER VAPOR
PICTURES SHOW PIECE OF ENERGY NEAR 140W DROPPING SOUTH AND AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE IT WILL KICK LOW NEAR 130W NORTHEASTWARD AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE CASCADES BY MORNING. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST FOR SLIGHTLY SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. 93

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SOUTH TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE TROUGH AXIS ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 135
WEST LONGITUDE, BUT WILL SHIFT TO NEAR 130 WEST SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT. PATCHY SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL, WITH THICKER AREAS OF SMOKE
IN SOUTHEAST GRANT COUNTY. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY, IT
WILL KICK AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 38N/135W NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON, AND NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL OREGON WILL BE WINDS. AT THIS
TIME WINDS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL RUN IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES.
HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS WINDS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD STAY IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS COULD LOCALLY OCCUR DURING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES OF
WASHINGTON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN, BUT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. HIGH TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S, WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A DEEP
TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DROP EVEN
FURTHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BY MIDWEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE CASCADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN
A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO MIDDAY SATURDAY.
CEILINGS WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT 8K-12K FEET AGL BUT AGAIN
COULD SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. SMOKE
FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT ANY TAF SITE.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACH THE CASCADES AFTER
10Z BUT THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS AT ANY TAF SITE IS FAIRLY
LOW DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING. A SIGNIFICANT WIND INCREASE IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY OF 20-30 KTS AND HIGHER GUST
RESULTING IN BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES. 91/93

FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CASCADES AND
EAST SLOPES OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  82  54  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALW  66  83  60  74 /  10  20  10  40
PSC  60  83  52  77 /  10  10  20  30
YKM  60  73  50  70 /  10  20  40  20
HRI  61  84  53  76 /   0  10  10  30
ELN  58  73  51  71 /  20  30  50  30
RDM  57  77  44  68 /  10  30  20  20
LGD  53  84  47  69 /  10  20  10  30
GCD  56  81  46  73 /  10  20  10  20
DLS  64  79  60  73 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ510-511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-
     507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-507-508.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ641-643-
     645-675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WAZ027>029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ027>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

93/91/91




000
FXUS66 KPDT 290518 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...SATELLITE PICTURE SHOW LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT
ONSHORE. THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE FEW HOURS AS WATER VAPOR
PICTURES SHOW PIECE OF ENERGY NEAR 140W DROPPING SOUTH AND AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE IT WILL KICK LOW NEAR 130W NORTHEASTWARD AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE CASCADES BY MORNING. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST FOR SLIGHTLY SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. 93

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SOUTH TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE TROUGH AXIS ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 135
WEST LONGITUDE, BUT WILL SHIFT TO NEAR 130 WEST SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT. PATCHY SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL, WITH THICKER AREAS OF SMOKE
IN SOUTHEAST GRANT COUNTY. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY, IT
WILL KICK AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 38N/135W NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON, AND NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL OREGON WILL BE WINDS. AT THIS
TIME WINDS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL RUN IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES.
HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS WINDS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD STAY IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS COULD LOCALLY OCCUR DURING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES OF
WASHINGTON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN, BUT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. HIGH TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S, WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A DEEP
TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DROP EVEN
FURTHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BY MIDWEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE CASCADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN
A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO MIDDAY SATURDAY.
CEILINGS WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT 8K-12K FEET AGL BUT AGAIN
COULD SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. SMOKE
FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT ANY TAF SITE.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACH THE CASCADES AFTER
10Z BUT THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS AT ANY TAF SITE IS FAIRLY
LOW DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING. A SIGNIFICANT WIND INCREASE IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY OF 20-30 KTS AND HIGHER GUST
RESULTING IN BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES. 91/93

FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CASCADES AND
EAST SLOPES OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  82  54  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALW  66  83  60  74 /  10  20  10  40
PSC  60  83  52  77 /  10  10  20  30
YKM  60  73  50  70 /  10  20  40  20
HRI  61  84  53  76 /   0  10  10  30
ELN  58  73  51  71 /  20  30  50  30
RDM  57  77  44  68 /  10  30  20  20
LGD  53  84  47  69 /  10  20  10  30
GCD  56  81  46  73 /  10  20  10  20
DLS  64  79  60  73 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ510-511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-
     507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-507-508.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ641-643-
     645-675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WAZ027>029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ027>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

93/91/91



000
FXUS66 KMFR 290443
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
942 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVENING UPDATE. LATEST RUNS ARE PUTTING THE CENTER OF
THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE CURRENT NAM AND GFS 500 MB
OMEGA FIELDS ARE MATCHING UP VERY WELL WITH THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGES OUT THROUGH 3Z. HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES AND
QPF WEST A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OF THE LOW ALSO MAKES THE 925 TO 850 MB WINDS A BIT
MORE PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND THUS NOT AS LIKELY TO MEET THE 60
MPH GUST CRITERIA FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING AT THE COAST. HOWEVER...
WITH THIS BEING ONE OF THE FEW WEEKENDS REMAINING IN SUMMER VACATION
AND THE EXTREMELY STRESSED CONDITION OF THE TREES IN THE EXTENDED
DROUGHT...THE IMPACT OF THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS WITH HIGH
NUMBER OF CAMPERS AND TRAVELERS TO THE COAST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
LEAVE THE CURRENT WARNINGS IN PLACE. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 259 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015/ LOOKING AT
THE FORECAST, IT WOULD APPEAR WE HAVE JUMPED AHEAD A COUPLE OF
MONTHS. IN REALITY, WHAT WE ARE GOING TO EXPERIENCE IS A LATE FALL
TO WINTER TYPE WIND AND RAIN STORM, DURING WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE
THE THICK OF FIRE SEASON. ACROSS THE BOARD, MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
DEPICTING A SYSTEM THAT DEFIES ANYTHING SEEN IN LATE AUGUST SINCE AT
LEAST 1979, IF NOT LONGER. IN SHORT, EXPECT WETTING RAINS OVER THE
CASCADES AND ALL POINTS WEST, AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST, THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.

THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE, SHOWING A
RATHER IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF, OR RATHER, A VERY UNSEASONABLY
IMPRESSIVE CLOUD FEATURE. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
DIGGING SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS
FEATURE IS KNOWN TO PRODUCE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOWS, AND THIS
ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. WITH PRESSURES AT THE CENTER CURRENTLY SITTING
AT AROUND 1007 MILLIBARS, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE PRESSURE COULD
DROP TO AS LOW AS 992 MILLIBARS BY 5 AM TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL
BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STORM FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST, PARTICULARLY AT THE HEADLANDS AND CAPES. FLOWS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE THERE. HAVE ISSUED WIND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THE
COAST AND EAST SIDE, AS WELL AS THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND ALSO A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE COAST NORTH OF HUMBUG MOUNTAIN. SOME AREAS
WITHIN THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY NOT QUITE REACH CRITERIA, BUT
GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF RECREATION THIS TIME OF YEAR, INCLUDING
FISHING, TOURISM, AND CAMPING, AS WELL AS THE BEGINNING OF SOME
HUNTING SEASONS THIS WEEKEND, HAVE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS ANYWAY DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS AND EXTENSIVE IMPACTS. ALSO OF NOTE,
WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES AND LEAVES REMAINING ON VEGETATION,
WINDS WILL HAVE EXTRA POTENTIAL TO DOWN OR DAMAGE TREES. TRAVEL,
UTILITIES, AND CAMPERS SHOULD BE ON EXTRA ALERT.

IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, THIS STORM SYSTEM WOULD NOT NORMALLY CAUSE US
TO BAT AN EYE, ASSUMING IT WAS LATE IN THE FALL OR IN THE WINTER.
INSTEAD, WE ARE EXPECTING WETTING RAINS FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CASCADES, AND HERE IT IS LATE AUGUST. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE
TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY. ALL TOLD, UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE COAST, WHILE IN THE COASTAL RANGES
IN FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON, AN INCH AND A HALF OR MORE IS POSSIBLE.
INLAND, THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS CAN EXPECT BETWEEN A TENTH AND A
QUARTER INCH, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS COULD REACH UP TO THREE QUARTERS.
OVERALL, A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR FIRE SEASON, AND ONE THAT
COULD ALSO QUENCH AREA WILDFIRES AND CLEAN THE AREA OF OUR
PERSISTENT SMOKE. WHILE IT IS MUCH TO EARLY TO SAY THIS IS A FIRE
SEASON ENDING EVENT, PENDING A POSSIBLE RETURN TO HEAT AND DRYNESS
IN SEPTEMBER, IT MAY VERY WELL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER
AND WETTER REGIME. MODELS HAVE PLACED A SERIES OF TROUGHS OVERHEAD
FOR THE NEXT WEEK AT LEAST, AND EACH ONE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING RAIN AND WIND, ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME, NONE LOOK ANYWHERE NEAR
AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE FIRST. GENERALLY SPEAKING, EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WITH AN INTERMITTENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS. WITH THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST, DO NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE PEAK OF MT SHASTA DISPLAYS A HINT OF NEW WHITE
COVERAGE SOMETIME THIS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...SMOKE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE ACTIVE WILDFIRES THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE AND WILL MOSTLY REMAIN VFR INTO
THE EVENING. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARD AND THEN ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE
COAST, MOUNTAINS, AND EAST SIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BREEZY WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND
MVFR VIS/CIGS TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE MOST IMPACTING CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND
SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS,
GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST, AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST
MOVER. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 330 PM PDT FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015... NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY WET LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA 3 DAYS AGO TO WHAT NOW LOOKS AS IF IT WILL
BE A VERY WINDY SOUTH WIND PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. IN FACT, STANDARDIZED ANOMALY INFORMATION FROM BOTH THE NAEFS
AND THE GEFS INDICATE THAT SUCH A STORM HAS NOT OCCURRED IN THE
CLIMATOLOGY OF AT LEAST THE LAST 30 YEARS. SINCE WE DON`T GET THIS
SORT OF WEATHER SYSTEM IN AUGUST, TYPICALLY, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT, IF THIS WAS WINTER, THIS STORM SYSTEM WOULD BE ONLY BE
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE THAN TYPICAL STORMS. THAT SAID, CALM
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
INSIDE OF 130 WEST LONGITUDE NEAR 42 NORTH LATITUDE AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE FAVORED NAM12
PUSHES THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO ABOUT 65 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF
FLORENCE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ON THE WASHINGTON COAST. OTHER
MODELS KEEP THE LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH IT MAKING LANDFALL ON OR
VERY NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE
FORCE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME STORM
FORCE WINDS LIKELY, NORTH AND DOWNWIND OF CAPE BLANCO IN THE AREA
WHERE COASTAL JET STREAMS OFTEN FORM UNDER THIS KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM. SOUTH SEAS WILL REACH WARNING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...WITH SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN THE 14 TO
18 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS
AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. BTL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 215 PM PDT FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE INTO THIS EVENING, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASED HUMIDITIES.
HUMIDITIES ARE ALREADY MUCH HIGHER WEST OF THE CASCADES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LATER TONIGHT, STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE
COAST, MOUNTAINS, AND EAST SIDE, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
RAIN WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING A WETTING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE. AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON THE EAST SIDE
SATURDAY.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE ARE
SPECIFIC CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND
THE PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE, HIGH
INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE NOT A
HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT. ALSO, SNAGS,
BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN WEAKENED OVER THE
SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND, THE ADDED WEIGHT
OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS SHOULD REMAIN
VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON OR
AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

A SECONDARY FRONT MAY BRING A LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY, OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. GENERAL
TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO
COOLER AND MORE HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM
TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ021-022.      HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 5
AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR      ORZ021-022.      HIGH WIND WARNING
FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ030-031.      WIND ADVISORY
FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
- GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
  TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
  FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290438 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
938 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. BUOY 46002 SLP CONTINUES TO DROP
BETWEEN 2-3MB/HOUR AND OUTPACE THE GFS AND EC FORECASTS CONSIDERABLY.
THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z EC RUNS AT
THIS POINT. THE NAM FORECASTS THE LOW TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 990MB OFF
THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AROUND 15Z SATURDAY BEFORE CLIPPING
CAPE FLATTERY ON ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SUSPECT IT WILL DROP SOLIDLY INTO
THE 980S. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH
EVEN WITH THE DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED SO FAR...SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THIS STORM FROM REALIZING ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE RAP BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE ONSHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE RAP DID A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THE TRACK OF SEVERAL OF
OUR STRONGER LOW PRESSURES LAST YEAR SO IT IS TOUGH TO DISCOUNT IT
EVEN THOUGH IT IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GLOBAL GFS AND EC
MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINAL TRACK OF THIS
LOW...ALL THE INHERITED HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WILL NUDGE UP THE MENTION OF WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH
OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO AREA WHERE A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ONTO THE
WASHINGTON COAST.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO COME ON RATHER SUDDENLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
STRONG BURST OF WINDS SHOULD FIRST HIT THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM...AND THE NORTH OREGON COAST...THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM.
WHILE WINDS WILL STILL BE NOTABLY GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS.

IN ADDITION...EXPANDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE AMPLE SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE MOST EVERYONE SHOULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...SUSPECT TOMORROW WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET FOR
MANY. HOWEVER...NOT ALL IS LOST AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A
SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
DRIZZLE STARTING TO MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS ALONG THE
COAST TO LOWER TOWARDS MVFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. RAIN WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER
09Z AND COULD BRING LOWER CIGS AND VSBY TO THE INTERIOR TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
INCREASE AROUND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND 12Z
TO 15Z ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45
KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT INLAND SITES START TO INCREASE AROUND 11 TO
13Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONALLY TO 40 KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER 09Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 11Z
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE.
/64/MCCOY


&&


.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO AT LEAST HIGH-END GALES. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD
TREND IN THE WINDS...WHICH COULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF ISOLATED
STORM FORCE GUSTS LATE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
DURATION AND EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN TOO LOW TO
UPGRADE TO A STORM WARNING. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 4 FT WILL BUILD
RAPIDLY TO 15 TO 17 FT...AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 FT...AS
THE WINDS INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND FALL BACK DOWN TO 15 KT GUSTING
TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 8
TO 10 FT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING
AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. /64/MCCOY


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COAST
     RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&


$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290438 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
938 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. BUOY 46002 SLP CONTINUES TO DROP
BETWEEN 2-3MB/HOUR AND OUTPACE THE GFS AND EC FORECASTS CONSIDERABLY.
THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z EC RUNS AT
THIS POINT. THE NAM FORECASTS THE LOW TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 990MB OFF
THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AROUND 15Z SATURDAY BEFORE CLIPPING
CAPE FLATTERY ON ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SUSPECT IT WILL DROP SOLIDLY INTO
THE 980S. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH
EVEN WITH THE DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED SO FAR...SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THIS STORM FROM REALIZING ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE RAP BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE ONSHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE RAP DID A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THE TRACK OF SEVERAL OF
OUR STRONGER LOW PRESSURES LAST YEAR SO IT IS TOUGH TO DISCOUNT IT
EVEN THOUGH IT IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GLOBAL GFS AND EC
MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINAL TRACK OF THIS
LOW...ALL THE INHERITED HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WILL NUDGE UP THE MENTION OF WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH
OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO AREA WHERE A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ONTO THE
WASHINGTON COAST.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO COME ON RATHER SUDDENLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
STRONG BURST OF WINDS SHOULD FIRST HIT THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM...AND THE NORTH OREGON COAST...THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM.
WHILE WINDS WILL STILL BE NOTABLY GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS.

IN ADDITION...EXPANDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE AMPLE SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE MOST EVERYONE SHOULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...SUSPECT TOMORROW WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET FOR
MANY. HOWEVER...NOT ALL IS LOST AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A
SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
DRIZZLE STARTING TO MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS ALONG THE
COAST TO LOWER TOWARDS MVFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. RAIN WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER
09Z AND COULD BRING LOWER CIGS AND VSBY TO THE INTERIOR TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
INCREASE AROUND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND 12Z
TO 15Z ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45
KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT INLAND SITES START TO INCREASE AROUND 11 TO
13Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONALLY TO 40 KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER 09Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 11Z
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE.
/64/MCCOY


&&


.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO AT LEAST HIGH-END GALES. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD
TREND IN THE WINDS...WHICH COULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF ISOLATED
STORM FORCE GUSTS LATE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
DURATION AND EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN TOO LOW TO
UPGRADE TO A STORM WARNING. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 4 FT WILL BUILD
RAPIDLY TO 15 TO 17 FT...AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 FT...AS
THE WINDS INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND FALL BACK DOWN TO 15 KT GUSTING
TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 8
TO 10 FT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING
AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. /64/MCCOY


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COAST
     RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&


$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290438 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
938 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. BUOY 46002 SLP CONTINUES TO DROP
BETWEEN 2-3MB/HOUR AND OUTPACE THE GFS AND EC FORECASTS CONSIDERABLY.
THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z EC RUNS AT
THIS POINT. THE NAM FORECASTS THE LOW TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 990MB OFF
THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AROUND 15Z SATURDAY BEFORE CLIPPING
CAPE FLATTERY ON ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SUSPECT IT WILL DROP SOLIDLY INTO
THE 980S. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH
EVEN WITH THE DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED SO FAR...SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THIS STORM FROM REALIZING ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE RAP BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE ONSHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE RAP DID A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THE TRACK OF SEVERAL OF
OUR STRONGER LOW PRESSURES LAST YEAR SO IT IS TOUGH TO DISCOUNT IT
EVEN THOUGH IT IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GLOBAL GFS AND EC
MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINAL TRACK OF THIS
LOW...ALL THE INHERITED HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WILL NUDGE UP THE MENTION OF WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH
OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO AREA WHERE A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ONTO THE
WASHINGTON COAST.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO COME ON RATHER SUDDENLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
STRONG BURST OF WINDS SHOULD FIRST HIT THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM...AND THE NORTH OREGON COAST...THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM.
WHILE WINDS WILL STILL BE NOTABLY GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS.

IN ADDITION...EXPANDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE AMPLE SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE MOST EVERYONE SHOULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...SUSPECT TOMORROW WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET FOR
MANY. HOWEVER...NOT ALL IS LOST AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A
SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
DRIZZLE STARTING TO MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS ALONG THE
COAST TO LOWER TOWARDS MVFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. RAIN WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER
09Z AND COULD BRING LOWER CIGS AND VSBY TO THE INTERIOR TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
INCREASE AROUND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND 12Z
TO 15Z ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45
KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT INLAND SITES START TO INCREASE AROUND 11 TO
13Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONALLY TO 40 KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER 09Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 11Z
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE.
/64/MCCOY


&&


.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO AT LEAST HIGH-END GALES. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD
TREND IN THE WINDS...WHICH COULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF ISOLATED
STORM FORCE GUSTS LATE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
DURATION AND EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN TOO LOW TO
UPGRADE TO A STORM WARNING. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 4 FT WILL BUILD
RAPIDLY TO 15 TO 17 FT...AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 FT...AS
THE WINDS INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND FALL BACK DOWN TO 15 KT GUSTING
TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 8
TO 10 FT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING
AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. /64/MCCOY


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COAST
     RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&


$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290438 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
938 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. BUOY 46002 SLP CONTINUES TO DROP
BETWEEN 2-3MB/HOUR AND OUTPACE THE GFS AND EC FORECASTS CONSIDERABLY.
THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z EC RUNS AT
THIS POINT. THE NAM FORECASTS THE LOW TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 990MB OFF
THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AROUND 15Z SATURDAY BEFORE CLIPPING
CAPE FLATTERY ON ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SUSPECT IT WILL DROP SOLIDLY INTO
THE 980S. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH
EVEN WITH THE DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED SO FAR...SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THIS STORM FROM REALIZING ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE RAP BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE ONSHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE RAP DID A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THE TRACK OF SEVERAL OF
OUR STRONGER LOW PRESSURES LAST YEAR SO IT IS TOUGH TO DISCOUNT IT
EVEN THOUGH IT IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GLOBAL GFS AND EC
MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINAL TRACK OF THIS
LOW...ALL THE INHERITED HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WILL NUDGE UP THE MENTION OF WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH
OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO AREA WHERE A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ONTO THE
WASHINGTON COAST.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO COME ON RATHER SUDDENLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
STRONG BURST OF WINDS SHOULD FIRST HIT THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM...AND THE NORTH OREGON COAST...THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM.
WHILE WINDS WILL STILL BE NOTABLY GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS.

IN ADDITION...EXPANDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE AMPLE SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE MOST EVERYONE SHOULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...SUSPECT TOMORROW WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET FOR
MANY. HOWEVER...NOT ALL IS LOST AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A
SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
DRIZZLE STARTING TO MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS ALONG THE
COAST TO LOWER TOWARDS MVFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. RAIN WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER
09Z AND COULD BRING LOWER CIGS AND VSBY TO THE INTERIOR TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
INCREASE AROUND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND 12Z
TO 15Z ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45
KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT INLAND SITES START TO INCREASE AROUND 11 TO
13Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONALLY TO 40 KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER 09Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 11Z
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE.
/64/MCCOY


&&


.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO AT LEAST HIGH-END GALES. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD
TREND IN THE WINDS...WHICH COULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF ISOLATED
STORM FORCE GUSTS LATE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
DURATION AND EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN TOO LOW TO
UPGRADE TO A STORM WARNING. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 4 FT WILL BUILD
RAPIDLY TO 15 TO 17 FT...AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 FT...AS
THE WINDS INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND FALL BACK DOWN TO 15 KT GUSTING
TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 8
TO 10 FT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING
AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. /64/MCCOY


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COAST
     RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&


$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290438 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
938 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. BUOY 46002 SLP CONTINUES TO DROP
BETWEEN 2-3MB/HOUR AND OUTPACE THE GFS AND EC FORECASTS CONSIDERABLY.
THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z EC RUNS AT
THIS POINT. THE NAM FORECASTS THE LOW TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 990MB OFF
THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AROUND 15Z SATURDAY BEFORE CLIPPING
CAPE FLATTERY ON ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SUSPECT IT WILL DROP SOLIDLY INTO
THE 980S. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH
EVEN WITH THE DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED SO FAR...SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THIS STORM FROM REALIZING ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE RAP BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE ONSHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE RAP DID A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THE TRACK OF SEVERAL OF
OUR STRONGER LOW PRESSURES LAST YEAR SO IT IS TOUGH TO DISCOUNT IT
EVEN THOUGH IT IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GLOBAL GFS AND EC
MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINAL TRACK OF THIS
LOW...ALL THE INHERITED HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WILL NUDGE UP THE MENTION OF WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH
OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO AREA WHERE A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ONTO THE
WASHINGTON COAST.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO COME ON RATHER SUDDENLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
STRONG BURST OF WINDS SHOULD FIRST HIT THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM...AND THE NORTH OREGON COAST...THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM.
WHILE WINDS WILL STILL BE NOTABLY GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS.

IN ADDITION...EXPANDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE AMPLE SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE MOST EVERYONE SHOULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...SUSPECT TOMORROW WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET FOR
MANY. HOWEVER...NOT ALL IS LOST AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A
SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
DRIZZLE STARTING TO MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS ALONG THE
COAST TO LOWER TOWARDS MVFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. RAIN WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER
09Z AND COULD BRING LOWER CIGS AND VSBY TO THE INTERIOR TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
INCREASE AROUND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND 12Z
TO 15Z ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45
KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT INLAND SITES START TO INCREASE AROUND 11 TO
13Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONALLY TO 40 KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER 09Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 11Z
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE.
/64/MCCOY


&&


.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO AT LEAST HIGH-END GALES. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD
TREND IN THE WINDS...WHICH COULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF ISOLATED
STORM FORCE GUSTS LATE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
DURATION AND EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN TOO LOW TO
UPGRADE TO A STORM WARNING. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 4 FT WILL BUILD
RAPIDLY TO 15 TO 17 FT...AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 FT...AS
THE WINDS INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND FALL BACK DOWN TO 15 KT GUSTING
TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 8
TO 10 FT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING
AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. /64/MCCOY


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COAST
     RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&


$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290438 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
938 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. BUOY 46002 SLP CONTINUES TO DROP
BETWEEN 2-3MB/HOUR AND OUTPACE THE GFS AND EC FORECASTS CONSIDERABLY.
THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z EC RUNS AT
THIS POINT. THE NAM FORECASTS THE LOW TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 990MB OFF
THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AROUND 15Z SATURDAY BEFORE CLIPPING
CAPE FLATTERY ON ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SUSPECT IT WILL DROP SOLIDLY INTO
THE 980S. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH
EVEN WITH THE DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED SO FAR...SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THIS STORM FROM REALIZING ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE RAP BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE ONSHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE RAP DID A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THE TRACK OF SEVERAL OF
OUR STRONGER LOW PRESSURES LAST YEAR SO IT IS TOUGH TO DISCOUNT IT
EVEN THOUGH IT IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GLOBAL GFS AND EC
MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINAL TRACK OF THIS
LOW...ALL THE INHERITED HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WILL NUDGE UP THE MENTION OF WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH
OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO AREA WHERE A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ONTO THE
WASHINGTON COAST.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO COME ON RATHER SUDDENLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
STRONG BURST OF WINDS SHOULD FIRST HIT THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM...AND THE NORTH OREGON COAST...THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM.
WHILE WINDS WILL STILL BE NOTABLY GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS.

IN ADDITION...EXPANDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE AMPLE SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE MOST EVERYONE SHOULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...SUSPECT TOMORROW WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET FOR
MANY. HOWEVER...NOT ALL IS LOST AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A
SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
DRIZZLE STARTING TO MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS ALONG THE
COAST TO LOWER TOWARDS MVFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. RAIN WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER
09Z AND COULD BRING LOWER CIGS AND VSBY TO THE INTERIOR TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
INCREASE AROUND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND 12Z
TO 15Z ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45
KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT INLAND SITES START TO INCREASE AROUND 11 TO
13Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONALLY TO 40 KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER 09Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 11Z
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE.
/64/MCCOY


&&


.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO AT LEAST HIGH-END GALES. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD
TREND IN THE WINDS...WHICH COULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF ISOLATED
STORM FORCE GUSTS LATE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
DURATION AND EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN TOO LOW TO
UPGRADE TO A STORM WARNING. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 4 FT WILL BUILD
RAPIDLY TO 15 TO 17 FT...AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 FT...AS
THE WINDS INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND FALL BACK DOWN TO 15 KT GUSTING
TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 8
TO 10 FT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING
AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. /64/MCCOY


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COAST
     RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&


$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290438 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
938 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. BUOY 46002 SLP CONTINUES TO DROP
BETWEEN 2-3MB/HOUR AND OUTPACE THE GFS AND EC FORECASTS CONSIDERABLY.
THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z EC RUNS AT
THIS POINT. THE NAM FORECASTS THE LOW TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 990MB OFF
THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AROUND 15Z SATURDAY BEFORE CLIPPING
CAPE FLATTERY ON ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SUSPECT IT WILL DROP SOLIDLY INTO
THE 980S. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH
EVEN WITH THE DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED SO FAR...SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THIS STORM FROM REALIZING ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE RAP BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE ONSHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE RAP DID A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THE TRACK OF SEVERAL OF
OUR STRONGER LOW PRESSURES LAST YEAR SO IT IS TOUGH TO DISCOUNT IT
EVEN THOUGH IT IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GLOBAL GFS AND EC
MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINAL TRACK OF THIS
LOW...ALL THE INHERITED HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WILL NUDGE UP THE MENTION OF WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH
OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO AREA WHERE A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ONTO THE
WASHINGTON COAST.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO COME ON RATHER SUDDENLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
STRONG BURST OF WINDS SHOULD FIRST HIT THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM...AND THE NORTH OREGON COAST...THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM.
WHILE WINDS WILL STILL BE NOTABLY GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS.

IN ADDITION...EXPANDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE AMPLE SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE MOST EVERYONE SHOULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...SUSPECT TOMORROW WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET FOR
MANY. HOWEVER...NOT ALL IS LOST AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A
SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
DRIZZLE STARTING TO MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS ALONG THE
COAST TO LOWER TOWARDS MVFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. RAIN WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER
09Z AND COULD BRING LOWER CIGS AND VSBY TO THE INTERIOR TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
INCREASE AROUND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND 12Z
TO 15Z ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45
KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT INLAND SITES START TO INCREASE AROUND 11 TO
13Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONALLY TO 40 KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER 09Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 11Z
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE.
/64/MCCOY


&&


.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO AT LEAST HIGH-END GALES. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD
TREND IN THE WINDS...WHICH COULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF ISOLATED
STORM FORCE GUSTS LATE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
DURATION AND EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN TOO LOW TO
UPGRADE TO A STORM WARNING. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 4 FT WILL BUILD
RAPIDLY TO 15 TO 17 FT...AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 FT...AS
THE WINDS INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND FALL BACK DOWN TO 15 KT GUSTING
TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 8
TO 10 FT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING
AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. /64/MCCOY


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COAST
     RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&


$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290438 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
938 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. BUOY 46002 SLP CONTINUES TO DROP
BETWEEN 2-3MB/HOUR AND OUTPACE THE GFS AND EC FORECASTS CONSIDERABLY.
THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z EC RUNS AT
THIS POINT. THE NAM FORECASTS THE LOW TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 990MB OFF
THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AROUND 15Z SATURDAY BEFORE CLIPPING
CAPE FLATTERY ON ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SUSPECT IT WILL DROP SOLIDLY INTO
THE 980S. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH
EVEN WITH THE DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED SO FAR...SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THIS STORM FROM REALIZING ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE RAP BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE ONSHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE RAP DID A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THE TRACK OF SEVERAL OF
OUR STRONGER LOW PRESSURES LAST YEAR SO IT IS TOUGH TO DISCOUNT IT
EVEN THOUGH IT IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GLOBAL GFS AND EC
MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINAL TRACK OF THIS
LOW...ALL THE INHERITED HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WILL NUDGE UP THE MENTION OF WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH
OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO AREA WHERE A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ONTO THE
WASHINGTON COAST.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO COME ON RATHER SUDDENLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
STRONG BURST OF WINDS SHOULD FIRST HIT THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM...AND THE NORTH OREGON COAST...THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM.
WHILE WINDS WILL STILL BE NOTABLY GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS.

IN ADDITION...EXPANDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE AMPLE SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE MOST EVERYONE SHOULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...SUSPECT TOMORROW WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET FOR
MANY. HOWEVER...NOT ALL IS LOST AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A
SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
DRIZZLE STARTING TO MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS ALONG THE
COAST TO LOWER TOWARDS MVFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. RAIN WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER
09Z AND COULD BRING LOWER CIGS AND VSBY TO THE INTERIOR TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
INCREASE AROUND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND 12Z
TO 15Z ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45
KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT INLAND SITES START TO INCREASE AROUND 11 TO
13Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONALLY TO 40 KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER 09Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 11Z
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE.
/64/MCCOY


&&


.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO AT LEAST HIGH-END GALES. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD
TREND IN THE WINDS...WHICH COULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF ISOLATED
STORM FORCE GUSTS LATE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
DURATION AND EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN TOO LOW TO
UPGRADE TO A STORM WARNING. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 4 FT WILL BUILD
RAPIDLY TO 15 TO 17 FT...AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 FT...AS
THE WINDS INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND FALL BACK DOWN TO 15 KT GUSTING
TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 8
TO 10 FT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING
AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. /64/MCCOY


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COAST
     RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&


$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290438 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
938 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. BUOY 46002 SLP CONTINUES TO DROP
BETWEEN 2-3MB/HOUR AND OUTPACE THE GFS AND EC FORECASTS CONSIDERABLY.
THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z EC RUNS AT
THIS POINT. THE NAM FORECASTS THE LOW TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 990MB OFF
THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AROUND 15Z SATURDAY BEFORE CLIPPING
CAPE FLATTERY ON ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SUSPECT IT WILL DROP SOLIDLY INTO
THE 980S. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH
EVEN WITH THE DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED SO FAR...SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THIS STORM FROM REALIZING ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE RAP BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE ONSHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE RAP DID A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THE TRACK OF SEVERAL OF
OUR STRONGER LOW PRESSURES LAST YEAR SO IT IS TOUGH TO DISCOUNT IT
EVEN THOUGH IT IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GLOBAL GFS AND EC
MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINAL TRACK OF THIS
LOW...ALL THE INHERITED HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WILL NUDGE UP THE MENTION OF WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH
OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO AREA WHERE A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ONTO THE
WASHINGTON COAST.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO COME ON RATHER SUDDENLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
STRONG BURST OF WINDS SHOULD FIRST HIT THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM...AND THE NORTH OREGON COAST...THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM.
WHILE WINDS WILL STILL BE NOTABLY GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS.

IN ADDITION...EXPANDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE AMPLE SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE MOST EVERYONE SHOULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...SUSPECT TOMORROW WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET FOR
MANY. HOWEVER...NOT ALL IS LOST AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A
SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
DRIZZLE STARTING TO MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS ALONG THE
COAST TO LOWER TOWARDS MVFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. RAIN WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER
09Z AND COULD BRING LOWER CIGS AND VSBY TO THE INTERIOR TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
INCREASE AROUND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND 12Z
TO 15Z ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45
KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT INLAND SITES START TO INCREASE AROUND 11 TO
13Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONALLY TO 40 KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER 09Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 11Z
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE.
/64/MCCOY


&&


.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO AT LEAST HIGH-END GALES. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD
TREND IN THE WINDS...WHICH COULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF ISOLATED
STORM FORCE GUSTS LATE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
DURATION AND EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN TOO LOW TO
UPGRADE TO A STORM WARNING. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 4 FT WILL BUILD
RAPIDLY TO 15 TO 17 FT...AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 FT...AS
THE WINDS INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND FALL BACK DOWN TO 15 KT GUSTING
TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 8
TO 10 FT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING
AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. /64/MCCOY


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COAST
     RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&


$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290438 CCA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
938 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. BUOY 46002 SLP CONTINUES TO DROP
BETWEEN 2-3MB/HOUR AND OUTPACE THE GFS AND EC FORECASTS CONSIDERABLY.
THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z EC RUNS AT
THIS POINT. THE NAM FORECASTS THE LOW TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 990MB OFF
THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AROUND 15Z SATURDAY BEFORE CLIPPING
CAPE FLATTERY ON ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SUSPECT IT WILL DROP SOLIDLY INTO
THE 980S. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH
EVEN WITH THE DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED SO FAR...SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THIS STORM FROM REALIZING ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE RAP BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE ONSHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE RAP DID A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THE TRACK OF SEVERAL OF
OUR STRONGER LOW PRESSURES LAST YEAR SO IT IS TOUGH TO DISCOUNT IT
EVEN THOUGH IT IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GLOBAL GFS AND EC
MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINAL TRACK OF THIS
LOW...ALL THE INHERITED HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WILL NUDGE UP THE MENTION OF WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH
OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO AREA WHERE A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ONTO THE
WASHINGTON COAST.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO COME ON RATHER SUDDENLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
STRONG BURST OF WINDS SHOULD FIRST HIT THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM...AND THE NORTH OREGON COAST...THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM.
WHILE WINDS WILL STILL BE NOTABLY GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS.

IN ADDITION...EXPANDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE AMPLE SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE MOST EVERYONE SHOULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...SUSPECT TOMORROW WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET FOR
MANY. HOWEVER...NOT ALL IS LOST AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A
SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
DRIZZLE STARTING TO MOVE IN ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS ALONG THE
COAST TO LOWER TOWARDS MVFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. RAIN WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER
09Z AND COULD BRING LOWER CIGS AND VSBY TO THE INTERIOR TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL
INCREASE AROUND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND 12Z
TO 15Z ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45
KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT INLAND SITES START TO INCREASE AROUND 11 TO
13Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONALLY TO 40 KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER 09Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 11Z
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE.
/64/MCCOY


&&


.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO AT LEAST HIGH-END GALES. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD
TREND IN THE WINDS...WHICH COULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF ISOLATED
STORM FORCE GUSTS LATE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
DURATION AND EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN TOO LOW TO
UPGRADE TO A STORM WARNING. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 4 FT WILL BUILD
RAPIDLY TO 15 TO 17 FT...AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 FT...AS
THE WINDS INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND FALL BACK DOWN TO 15 KT GUSTING
TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 8
TO 10 FT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING
AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. /64/MCCOY


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COAST
     RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&


$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290423
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. BUOY 46002 SLP CONTINUES TO DROP
BETWEEN 2-3MB/HOUR AND OUTPACE THE GFS AND EC FORECASTS CONSIDERABLY.
THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z EC RUNS AT
THIS POINT. THE NAM FORECASTS THE LOW TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 990MB OFF
THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AROUND 15Z SATURDAY BEFORE CLIPPING
CAPE FLATTERY ON ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SUSPECT IT WILL DROP SOLIDLY INTO
THE 980S. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH
EVEN WITH THE DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED SO FAR...SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THIS STORM FROM REALIZING ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE RAP BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE ONSHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE RAP DID A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THE TRACK OF SEVERAL OF
OUR STRONGER LOW PRESSURES LAST YEAR SO IT IS TOUGH TO DISCOUNT IT
EVEN THOUGH IT IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GLOBAL GFS AND EC
MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINAL TRACK OF THIS
LOW...ALL THE INHERITED HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WILL NUDGE UP THE MENTION OF WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH
OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO AREA WHERE A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ONTO THE
WASHINGTON COAST.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO COME ON RATHER SUDDENLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
STRONG BURST OF WINDS SHOULD FIRST HIT THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM...AND THE NORTH OREGON COAST...THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM.
WHILE WINDS WILL STILL BE NOTABLY GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS.

IN ADDITION...EXPANDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE AMPLE SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE MOST EVERYONE SHOULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...SUSPECT TOMORROW WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET FOR
MANY. HOWEVER...NOT ALL IS LOST AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A
SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS PRIMARILY UP
ABOVE 10KFT. CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING
AROUND 03Z AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS MAKE THERE WAY ONTO THE
COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
DROPS IN VIS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS MOVES INLAND AROUND
08Z WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS AT INLAND TAF SITES TO LOW VFR...
OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS
ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE AROUND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND 12Z TO 15Z ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT INLAND SITES START TO
INCREASE AROUND 11 TO 13Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND
OCCASIONALLY TO 40 KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
MOVE IN AROUND 08Z LOWERING CIGS TO LOW VFR WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS
TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 11Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO
35 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE. -MCCOY


&&


.MARINE...FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM APPROX 400
MI WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AT LEAST
HIGH END GALES. MODELS HAVE STARTED TRENDING STRONGER...WHICH MAY
INDICATE AT LEAST A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
ANOTHER RUN DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO BEFORE CONFIDENCE IMPROVES
ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO STORM WARNING. AS WINDS INCREASE...SEAS WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 5 FT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15 TO 17 FT. SEAS STAY UP AROUND 13 TO 17
FT UNTIL WINDS DECREASE SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND FALL BACK DOWN TO 15 KT
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
AROUND 8 TO 10 FT WITH WINDS WITH WINDS DECREASING FURTHER TO 10
TO 15 KT BY SUNDAY EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING
AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. -MCCOY


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COAST RANGE

     OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290423
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. BUOY 46002 SLP CONTINUES TO DROP
BETWEEN 2-3MB/HOUR AND OUTPACE THE GFS AND EC FORECASTS CONSIDERABLY.
THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z EC RUNS AT
THIS POINT. THE NAM FORECASTS THE LOW TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 990MB OFF
THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AROUND 15Z SATURDAY BEFORE CLIPPING
CAPE FLATTERY ON ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SUSPECT IT WILL DROP SOLIDLY INTO
THE 980S. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH
EVEN WITH THE DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED SO FAR...SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THIS STORM FROM REALIZING ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE RAP BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE ONSHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE RAP DID A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THE TRACK OF SEVERAL OF
OUR STRONGER LOW PRESSURES LAST YEAR SO IT IS TOUGH TO DISCOUNT IT
EVEN THOUGH IT IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GLOBAL GFS AND EC
MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINAL TRACK OF THIS
LOW...ALL THE INHERITED HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WILL NUDGE UP THE MENTION OF WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH
OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO AREA WHERE A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ONTO THE
WASHINGTON COAST.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO COME ON RATHER SUDDENLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
STRONG BURST OF WINDS SHOULD FIRST HIT THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM...AND THE NORTH OREGON COAST...THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM.
WHILE WINDS WILL STILL BE NOTABLY GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS.

IN ADDITION...EXPANDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE AMPLE SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE MOST EVERYONE SHOULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...SUSPECT TOMORROW WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET FOR
MANY. HOWEVER...NOT ALL IS LOST AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A
SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS PRIMARILY UP
ABOVE 10KFT. CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING
AROUND 03Z AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS MAKE THERE WAY ONTO THE
COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
DROPS IN VIS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS MOVES INLAND AROUND
08Z WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS AT INLAND TAF SITES TO LOW VFR...
OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS
ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE AROUND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND 12Z TO 15Z ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT INLAND SITES START TO
INCREASE AROUND 11 TO 13Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND
OCCASIONALLY TO 40 KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
MOVE IN AROUND 08Z LOWERING CIGS TO LOW VFR WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS
TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 11Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO
35 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE. -MCCOY


&&


.MARINE...FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM APPROX 400
MI WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AT LEAST
HIGH END GALES. MODELS HAVE STARTED TRENDING STRONGER...WHICH MAY
INDICATE AT LEAST A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
ANOTHER RUN DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO BEFORE CONFIDENCE IMPROVES
ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO STORM WARNING. AS WINDS INCREASE...SEAS WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 5 FT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15 TO 17 FT. SEAS STAY UP AROUND 13 TO 17
FT UNTIL WINDS DECREASE SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND FALL BACK DOWN TO 15 KT
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
AROUND 8 TO 10 FT WITH WINDS WITH WINDS DECREASING FURTHER TO 10
TO 15 KT BY SUNDAY EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING
AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. -MCCOY


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COAST RANGE

     OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290423
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. BUOY 46002 SLP CONTINUES TO DROP
BETWEEN 2-3MB/HOUR AND OUTPACE THE GFS AND EC FORECASTS CONSIDERABLY.
THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z EC RUNS AT
THIS POINT. THE NAM FORECASTS THE LOW TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 990MB OFF
THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AROUND 15Z SATURDAY BEFORE CLIPPING
CAPE FLATTERY ON ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SUSPECT IT WILL DROP SOLIDLY INTO
THE 980S. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH
EVEN WITH THE DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED SO FAR...SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THIS STORM FROM REALIZING ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE RAP BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE ONSHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE RAP DID A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THE TRACK OF SEVERAL OF
OUR STRONGER LOW PRESSURES LAST YEAR SO IT IS TOUGH TO DISCOUNT IT
EVEN THOUGH IT IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GLOBAL GFS AND EC
MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINAL TRACK OF THIS
LOW...ALL THE INHERITED HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WILL NUDGE UP THE MENTION OF WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH
OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO AREA WHERE A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ONTO THE
WASHINGTON COAST.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO COME ON RATHER SUDDENLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
STRONG BURST OF WINDS SHOULD FIRST HIT THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM...AND THE NORTH OREGON COAST...THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM.
WHILE WINDS WILL STILL BE NOTABLY GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS.

IN ADDITION...EXPANDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE AMPLE SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE MOST EVERYONE SHOULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...SUSPECT TOMORROW WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET FOR
MANY. HOWEVER...NOT ALL IS LOST AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A
SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS PRIMARILY UP
ABOVE 10KFT. CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING
AROUND 03Z AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS MAKE THERE WAY ONTO THE
COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
DROPS IN VIS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS MOVES INLAND AROUND
08Z WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS AT INLAND TAF SITES TO LOW VFR...
OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS
ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE AROUND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND 12Z TO 15Z ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT INLAND SITES START TO
INCREASE AROUND 11 TO 13Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND
OCCASIONALLY TO 40 KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
MOVE IN AROUND 08Z LOWERING CIGS TO LOW VFR WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS
TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 11Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO
35 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE. -MCCOY


&&


.MARINE...FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM APPROX 400
MI WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AT LEAST
HIGH END GALES. MODELS HAVE STARTED TRENDING STRONGER...WHICH MAY
INDICATE AT LEAST A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
ANOTHER RUN DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO BEFORE CONFIDENCE IMPROVES
ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO STORM WARNING. AS WINDS INCREASE...SEAS WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 5 FT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15 TO 17 FT. SEAS STAY UP AROUND 13 TO 17
FT UNTIL WINDS DECREASE SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND FALL BACK DOWN TO 15 KT
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
AROUND 8 TO 10 FT WITH WINDS WITH WINDS DECREASING FURTHER TO 10
TO 15 KT BY SUNDAY EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING
AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. -MCCOY


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COAST RANGE

     OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 290423
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN USUALLY EARLY AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAIN MAY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. BUOY 46002 SLP CONTINUES TO DROP
BETWEEN 2-3MB/HOUR AND OUTPACE THE GFS AND EC FORECASTS CONSIDERABLY.
THE 00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z EC RUNS AT
THIS POINT. THE NAM FORECASTS THE LOW TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 990MB OFF
THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AROUND 15Z SATURDAY BEFORE CLIPPING
CAPE FLATTERY ON ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SUSPECT IT WILL DROP SOLIDLY INTO
THE 980S. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHICH
EVEN WITH THE DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED SO FAR...SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP THIS STORM FROM REALIZING ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE RAP BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE ONSHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA. THE RAP DID A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THE TRACK OF SEVERAL OF
OUR STRONGER LOW PRESSURES LAST YEAR SO IT IS TOUGH TO DISCOUNT IT
EVEN THOUGH IT IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GLOBAL GFS AND EC
MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINAL TRACK OF THIS
LOW...ALL THE INHERITED HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...WILL NUDGE UP THE MENTION OF WIND GUSTS ALONG THE NORTH
OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO AREA WHERE A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ONTO THE
WASHINGTON COAST.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO COME ON RATHER SUDDENLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
STRONG BURST OF WINDS SHOULD FIRST HIT THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM...AND THE NORTH OREGON COAST...THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST...AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM.
WHILE WINDS WILL STILL BE NOTABLY GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS.

IN ADDITION...EXPANDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE AMPLE SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE MOST EVERYONE SHOULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...SUSPECT TOMORROW WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET FOR
MANY. HOWEVER...NOT ALL IS LOST AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH A
SECOND FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
WILL PUSH A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
DECENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A WET THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS PRIMARILY UP
ABOVE 10KFT. CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING
AROUND 03Z AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS MAKE THERE WAY ONTO THE
COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
DROPS IN VIS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS MOVES INLAND AROUND
08Z WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS AT INLAND TAF SITES TO LOW VFR...
OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS
ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE AROUND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND 12Z TO 15Z ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT INLAND SITES START TO
INCREASE AROUND 11 TO 13Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND
OCCASIONALLY TO 40 KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
MOVE IN AROUND 08Z LOWERING CIGS TO LOW VFR WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS
TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 11Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO
35 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE. -MCCOY


&&


.MARINE...FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM APPROX 400
MI WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AT LEAST
HIGH END GALES. MODELS HAVE STARTED TRENDING STRONGER...WHICH MAY
INDICATE AT LEAST A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
ANOTHER RUN DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO BEFORE CONFIDENCE IMPROVES
ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO STORM WARNING. AS WINDS INCREASE...SEAS WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 5 FT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15 TO 17 FT. SEAS STAY UP AROUND 13 TO 17
FT UNTIL WINDS DECREASE SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND FALL BACK DOWN TO 15 KT
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
AROUND 8 TO 10 FT WITH WINDS WITH WINDS DECREASING FURTHER TO 10
TO 15 KT BY SUNDAY EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING
AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. -MCCOY


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COAST RANGE

     OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 290334
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
834 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...SATELLITE PICTURE SHOW LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT
ONSHORE. THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE FEW HOURS AS WATER VAPOR
PICTURES SHOW PIECE OF ENERGY NEAR 140W DROPPING SOUTH AND AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE IT WILL KICK LOW NEAR 130W NORTHEASTWARD AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE CASCADES BY MORNING. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST FOR SLIGHTLY SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. 93

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SOUTH TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE TROUGH AXIS ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 135
WEST LONGITUDE, BUT WILL SHIFT TO NEAR 130 WEST SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT. PATCHY SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL, WITH THICKER AREAS OF SMOKE
IN SOUTHEAST GRANT COUNTY. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY, IT
WILL KICK AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 38N/135W NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON, AND NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL OREGON WILL BE WINDS. AT THIS
TIME WINDS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL RUN IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES.
HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS WINDS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD STAY IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS COULD LOCALLY OCCUR DURING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES OF
WASHINGTON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN, BUT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. HIGH TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S, WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A DEEP
TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DROP EVEN
FURTHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BY MIDWEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE CASCADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN
A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO MIDDAY SATURDAY.
CEILINGS WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT 8K-12K FEET AGL BUT AGAIN
COULD SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. SMOKE
FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT ANY TAF SITE.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACH THE CASCADES AFTER
10Z BUT THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS AT ANY TAF SITE IS FAIRLY
LOW DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING. A SIGNIFICANT WIND INCREASE IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY OF 20-30 KTS AND HIGHER GUST
RESULTING IN BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES.

FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CASCADES AND
EAST SLOPES OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  82  54  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALW  66  83  60  74 /  10  20  10  40
PSC  60  83  52  77 /  10  10  20  30
YKM  60  73  50  70 /  10  20  40  20
HRI  61  84  53  76 /   0  10  10  30
ELN  58  73  51  71 /  20  30  50  30
RDM  57  77  44  68 /  10  30  20  20
LGD  53  84  47  69 /  10  20  10  30
GCD  56  81  46  73 /  10  20  10  20
DLS  64  79  60  73 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ510-511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-
     507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-507-508.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ641-643-
     645-675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WAZ027>029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ027>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

93/91/91




000
FXUS66 KPDT 290334
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
834 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...SATELLITE PICTURE SHOW LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT
ONSHORE. THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE FEW HOURS AS WATER VAPOR
PICTURES SHOW PIECE OF ENERGY NEAR 140W DROPPING SOUTH AND AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE IT WILL KICK LOW NEAR 130W NORTHEASTWARD AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE CASCADES BY MORNING. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST FOR SLIGHTLY SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. 93

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SOUTH TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE TROUGH AXIS ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 135
WEST LONGITUDE, BUT WILL SHIFT TO NEAR 130 WEST SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT. PATCHY SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL, WITH THICKER AREAS OF SMOKE
IN SOUTHEAST GRANT COUNTY. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY, IT
WILL KICK AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 38N/135W NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON, AND NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL OREGON WILL BE WINDS. AT THIS
TIME WINDS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL RUN IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES.
HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS WINDS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD STAY IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS COULD LOCALLY OCCUR DURING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES OF
WASHINGTON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN, BUT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. HIGH TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S, WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A DEEP
TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DROP EVEN
FURTHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BY MIDWEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE CASCADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN
A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO MIDDAY SATURDAY.
CEILINGS WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT 8K-12K FEET AGL BUT AGAIN
COULD SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. SMOKE
FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT ANY TAF SITE.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACH THE CASCADES AFTER
10Z BUT THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS AT ANY TAF SITE IS FAIRLY
LOW DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING. A SIGNIFICANT WIND INCREASE IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY OF 20-30 KTS AND HIGHER GUST
RESULTING IN BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES.

FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CASCADES AND
EAST SLOPES OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  82  54  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALW  66  83  60  74 /  10  20  10  40
PSC  60  83  52  77 /  10  10  20  30
YKM  60  73  50  70 /  10  20  40  20
HRI  61  84  53  76 /   0  10  10  30
ELN  58  73  51  71 /  20  30  50  30
RDM  57  77  44  68 /  10  30  20  20
LGD  53  84  47  69 /  10  20  10  30
GCD  56  81  46  73 /  10  20  10  20
DLS  64  79  60  73 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ510-511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-
     507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-507-508.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ641-643-
     645-675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WAZ027>029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ027>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

93/91/91



000
FXUS65 KBOI 290303
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
903 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW. RADAR INDICATES LIGHT SHOWERS
BRINGING PERHAPS A HUNDREDTH OR TWO TO EASTERN OWYHEE COUNTY AND
SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. NAM STILL INDICATES A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE UPPER TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT...SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDY
TOMORROW AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN TURNING COOLER FOR THE
COMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH MOSTLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. OCCASIONAL MVFR
FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF A KBNO-KSNT LINE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 29/09Z-18Z AHEAD OF SATURDAY/S
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN IDAHO WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS...MAGIC
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH W TO E FRONTAL PASSAGE
BETWEEN 29/18- 30/06Z. VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS NEAR 30 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY 12
KTS OR LESS...AFTER 29/18Z SURFACE WINDS INCREASING FROM W TO
E WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN SE
OREGON...WITH FORECAST GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS BEFORE 30/00Z...THEN
TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SW 15-25
KTS...THEN BY 29/12Z SSW 35-55 KTS...THEN DECREASING AFTER 30/00Z
TO WSW 20-25 KTS.

FOR SUNDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS AND CALMER WINDS WITH PASSING CLOUDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WERE FORMING IN ERN
OWYHEE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY...NEAR WHERE MODELS
PUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL COME INLAND OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS OREGON ZONES MIDDAY SATURDAY
AND IDAHO ZONES LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING.  FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR
COUNTIES SATURDAY.  FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING TO
THE OREGON SIDE LATE SATURDAY...BUT IDAHO WILL HAVE TIME TO GET
WARM AGAIN SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.  EVEN WITH COLD
ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS
MILD...BUT SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN ALL ZONES.  MODELS
KEEP OREGON ZONES DRY SATURDAY BUT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST IT WILL
MOISTEN AND IDAHO ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE EAST OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AND WE
SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN EXCEPT ALONG NRN BORDER ZONES IN THE HEART OF
THE UPPER TROUGH.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LONGWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SIT OFF THE PACNW COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO DO SO FOR
THE MID AND LONG TERM. AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES MODELS INDICATING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE FLOW SLOWLY MOVING INLAND...BUT WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE CWA. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY....NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES INTO WASHINGTON
THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. ECMWF SHOWS THIS LOW
PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM
STALLING OUT AND NOT MAKING PASSAGE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND EXACT TIMING. BECAUSE OF THIS
DISAGREEMENT...WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS AND
LIMITED THE HIGHER POPS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECTED TEMPS DURING
THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 290303
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
903 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW. RADAR INDICATES LIGHT SHOWERS
BRINGING PERHAPS A HUNDREDTH OR TWO TO EASTERN OWYHEE COUNTY AND
SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. NAM STILL INDICATES A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE UPPER TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT...SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDY
TOMORROW AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN TURNING COOLER FOR THE
COMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH MOSTLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. OCCASIONAL MVFR
FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF A KBNO-KSNT LINE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 29/09Z-18Z AHEAD OF SATURDAY/S
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN IDAHO WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS...MAGIC
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH W TO E FRONTAL PASSAGE
BETWEEN 29/18- 30/06Z. VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS NEAR 30 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY 12
KTS OR LESS...AFTER 29/18Z SURFACE WINDS INCREASING FROM W TO
E WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN SE
OREGON...WITH FORECAST GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS BEFORE 30/00Z...THEN
TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SW 15-25
KTS...THEN BY 29/12Z SSW 35-55 KTS...THEN DECREASING AFTER 30/00Z
TO WSW 20-25 KTS.

FOR SUNDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS AND CALMER WINDS WITH PASSING CLOUDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WERE FORMING IN ERN
OWYHEE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY...NEAR WHERE MODELS
PUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL COME INLAND OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS OREGON ZONES MIDDAY SATURDAY
AND IDAHO ZONES LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING.  FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR
COUNTIES SATURDAY.  FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING TO
THE OREGON SIDE LATE SATURDAY...BUT IDAHO WILL HAVE TIME TO GET
WARM AGAIN SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.  EVEN WITH COLD
ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS
MILD...BUT SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN ALL ZONES.  MODELS
KEEP OREGON ZONES DRY SATURDAY BUT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST IT WILL
MOISTEN AND IDAHO ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE EAST OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AND WE
SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN EXCEPT ALONG NRN BORDER ZONES IN THE HEART OF
THE UPPER TROUGH.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LONGWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SIT OFF THE PACNW COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO DO SO FOR
THE MID AND LONG TERM. AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES MODELS INDICATING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE FLOW SLOWLY MOVING INLAND...BUT WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE CWA. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY....NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES INTO WASHINGTON
THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. ECMWF SHOWS THIS LOW
PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM
STALLING OUT AND NOT MAKING PASSAGE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND EXACT TIMING. BECAUSE OF THIS
DISAGREEMENT...WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS AND
LIMITED THE HIGHER POPS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECTED TEMPS DURING
THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 290303
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
903 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW. RADAR INDICATES LIGHT SHOWERS
BRINGING PERHAPS A HUNDREDTH OR TWO TO EASTERN OWYHEE COUNTY AND
SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. NAM STILL INDICATES A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE UPPER TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT...SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDY
TOMORROW AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN TURNING COOLER FOR THE
COMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH MOSTLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. OCCASIONAL MVFR
FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF A KBNO-KSNT LINE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 29/09Z-18Z AHEAD OF SATURDAY/S
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN IDAHO WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS...MAGIC
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH W TO E FRONTAL PASSAGE
BETWEEN 29/18- 30/06Z. VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS NEAR 30 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY 12
KTS OR LESS...AFTER 29/18Z SURFACE WINDS INCREASING FROM W TO
E WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN SE
OREGON...WITH FORECAST GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS BEFORE 30/00Z...THEN
TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SW 15-25
KTS...THEN BY 29/12Z SSW 35-55 KTS...THEN DECREASING AFTER 30/00Z
TO WSW 20-25 KTS.

FOR SUNDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS AND CALMER WINDS WITH PASSING CLOUDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WERE FORMING IN ERN
OWYHEE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY...NEAR WHERE MODELS
PUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL COME INLAND OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS OREGON ZONES MIDDAY SATURDAY
AND IDAHO ZONES LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING.  FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR
COUNTIES SATURDAY.  FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING TO
THE OREGON SIDE LATE SATURDAY...BUT IDAHO WILL HAVE TIME TO GET
WARM AGAIN SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.  EVEN WITH COLD
ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS
MILD...BUT SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN ALL ZONES.  MODELS
KEEP OREGON ZONES DRY SATURDAY BUT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST IT WILL
MOISTEN AND IDAHO ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE EAST OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AND WE
SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN EXCEPT ALONG NRN BORDER ZONES IN THE HEART OF
THE UPPER TROUGH.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LONGWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SIT OFF THE PACNW COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO DO SO FOR
THE MID AND LONG TERM. AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES MODELS INDICATING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE FLOW SLOWLY MOVING INLAND...BUT WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE CWA. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY....NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES INTO WASHINGTON
THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. ECMWF SHOWS THIS LOW
PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM
STALLING OUT AND NOT MAKING PASSAGE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND EXACT TIMING. BECAUSE OF THIS
DISAGREEMENT...WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS AND
LIMITED THE HIGHER POPS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECTED TEMPS DURING
THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC



000
FXUS66 KMFR 290103
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
603 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS AND HEADLINES

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...SMOKE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE ACTIVE WILDFIRES THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE AND WILL MOSTLY REMAIN VFR INTO
THE EVENING. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARD AND THEN ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE
COAST, MOUNTAINS, AND EAST SIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BREEZY WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND
MVFR VIS/CIGS TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE MOST IMPACTING CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND
SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS,
GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST, AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST
MOVER. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 330 PM PDT FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015... NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY WET LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA 3 DAYS AGO TO WHAT NOW LOOKS AS IF IT WILL
BE A VERY WINDY SOUTH WIND PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. IN FACT, STANDARDIZED ANOMALY INFORMATION FROM BOTH THE NAEFS
AND THE GEFS INDICATE THAT SUCH A STORM HAS NOT OCCURRED IN THE
CLIMATOLOGY OF AT LEAST THE LAST 30 YEARS. SINCE WE DON`T GET THIS
SORT OF WEATHER SYSTEM IN AUGUST, TYPICALLY, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT, IF THIS WAS WINTER, THIS STORM SYSTEM WOULD BE ONLY BE
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE THAN TYPICAL STORMS. THAT SAID, CALM
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
INSIDE OF 130 WEST LONGITUDE NEAR 42 NORTH LATITUDE AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE FAVORED NAM12
PUSHES THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO ABOUT 65 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF
FLORENCE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ON THE WASHINGTON COAST. OTHER
MODELS KEEP THE LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH IT MAKING LANDFALL ON OR
VERY NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE
FORCE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME STORM
FORCE WINDS LIKELY, NORTH AND DOWNWIND OF CAPE BLANCO IN THE AREA
WHERE COASTAL JET STREAMS OFTEN FORM UNDER THIS KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM. SOUTH SEAS WILL REACH WARNING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...WITH SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN THE 14 TO
18 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS
AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. BTL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 215 PM PDT FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE INTO THIS EVENING, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASED HUMIDITIES.
HUMIDITIES ARE ALREADY MUCH HIGHER WEST OF THE CASCADES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LATER TONIGHT, STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE
COAST, MOUNTAINS, AND EAST SIDE, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
RAIN WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING A WETTING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE. AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON THE EAST
SIDE SATURDAY.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE ARE
SPECIFIC CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND
THE PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE, HIGH
INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE NOT A
HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT. ALSO, SNAGS,
BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN WEAKENED OVER THE
SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND, THE ADDED WEIGHT
OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS SHOULD REMAIN
VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON OR
AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

A SECONDARY FRONT MAY BRING A LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY, OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. GENERAL
TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO
COOLER AND MORE HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
LOOKING AT THE FORECAST, IT WOULD APPEAR WE HAVE JUMPED AHEAD A
COUPLE OF MONTHS. IN REALITY, WHAT WE ARE GOING TO EXPERIENCE IS A
LATE FALL TO WINTER TYPE WIND AND RAIN STORM, DURING WHAT WOULD
NORMALLY BE THE THICK OF FIRE SEASON. ACROSS THE BOARD, MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE DEPICTING A SYSTEM THAT DEFIES ANYTHING SEEN IN LATE
AUGUST SINCE AT LEAST 1979, IF NOT LONGER. IN SHORT, EXPECT
WETTING RAINS OVER THE CASCADES AND ALL POINTS WEST, AND GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST, THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE.

THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE, SHOWING A
RATHER IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF, OR RATHER, A VERY UNSEASONABLY
IMPRESSIVE CLOUD FEATURE. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
DIGGING SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS
FEATURE IS KNOWN TO PRODUCE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOWS, AND THIS
ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. WITH PRESSURES AT THE CENTER CURRENTLY SITTING
AT AROUND 1007 MILLIBARS, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE PRESSURE COULD
DROP TO AS LOW AS 992 MILLIBARS BY 5 AM TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL
BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STORM FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST, PARTICULARLY AT THE HEADLANDS AND CAPES. FLOWS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE THERE. HAVE ISSUED WIND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THE
COAST AND EAST SIDE, AS WELL AS THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND ALSO A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE COAST NORTH OF HUMBUG MOUNTAIN. SOME AREAS
WITHIN THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY NOT QUITE REACH CRITERIA, BUT
GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF RECREATION THIS TIME OF YEAR, INCLUDING
FISHING, TOURISM, AND CAMPING, AS WELL AS THE BEGINNING OF SOME
HUNTING SEASONS THIS WEEKEND, HAVE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS ANYWAY DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS AND EXTENSIVE IMPACTS. ALSO OF NOTE,
WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES AND LEAVES REMAINING ON VEGETATION,
WINDS WILL HAVE EXTRA POTENTIAL TO DOWN OR DAMAGE TREES. TRAVEL,
UTILITIES, AND CAMPERS SHOULD BE ON EXTRA ALERT.

IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, THIS STORM SYSTEM WOULD NOT NORMALLY CAUSE US
TO BAT AN EYE, ASSUMING IT WAS LATE IN THE FALL OR IN THE WINTER.
INSTEAD, WE ARE EXPECTING WETTING RAINS FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CASCADES, AND HERE IT IS LATE AUGUST. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE
TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY. ALL TOLD, UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE COAST, WHILE IN THE COASTAL RANGES
IN FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON, AN INCH AND A HALF OR MORE IS POSSIBLE.
INLAND, THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS CAN EXPECT BETWEEN A TENTH AND A
QUARTER INCH, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS COULD REACH UP TO THREE QUARTERS.
OVERALL, A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR FIRE SEASON, AND ONE THAT
COULD ALSO QUENCH AREA WILDFIRES AND CLEAN THE AREA OF OUR
PERSISTENT SMOKE. WHILE IT IS MUCH TO EARLY TO SAY THIS IS A FIRE
SEASON ENDING EVENT, PENDING A POSSIBLE RETURN TO HEAT AND DRYNESS
IN SEPTEMBER, IT MAY VERY WELL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER
AND WETTER REGIME. MODELS HAVE PLACED A SERIES OF TROUGHS OVERHEAD
FOR THE NEXT WEEK AT LEAST, AND EACH ONE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING RAIN AND WIND, ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME, NONE LOOK ANYWHERE NEAR
AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE FIRST. GENERALLY SPEAKING, EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WITH AN INTERMITTENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS. WITH THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST, DO NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE PEAK OF MT SHASTA DISPLAYS A HINT OF NEW WHITE
COVERAGE SOMETIME THIS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
- GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
  TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
  FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 290103
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
603 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS AND HEADLINES

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...SMOKE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE ACTIVE WILDFIRES THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE AND WILL MOSTLY REMAIN VFR INTO
THE EVENING. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARD AND THEN ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE
COAST, MOUNTAINS, AND EAST SIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BREEZY WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND
MVFR VIS/CIGS TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE MOST IMPACTING CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND
SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS,
GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST, AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST
MOVER. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 330 PM PDT FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015... NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY WET LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA 3 DAYS AGO TO WHAT NOW LOOKS AS IF IT WILL
BE A VERY WINDY SOUTH WIND PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. IN FACT, STANDARDIZED ANOMALY INFORMATION FROM BOTH THE NAEFS
AND THE GEFS INDICATE THAT SUCH A STORM HAS NOT OCCURRED IN THE
CLIMATOLOGY OF AT LEAST THE LAST 30 YEARS. SINCE WE DON`T GET THIS
SORT OF WEATHER SYSTEM IN AUGUST, TYPICALLY, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT, IF THIS WAS WINTER, THIS STORM SYSTEM WOULD BE ONLY BE
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE THAN TYPICAL STORMS. THAT SAID, CALM
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
INSIDE OF 130 WEST LONGITUDE NEAR 42 NORTH LATITUDE AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE FAVORED NAM12
PUSHES THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO ABOUT 65 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF
FLORENCE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ON THE WASHINGTON COAST. OTHER
MODELS KEEP THE LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH IT MAKING LANDFALL ON OR
VERY NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE
FORCE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME STORM
FORCE WINDS LIKELY, NORTH AND DOWNWIND OF CAPE BLANCO IN THE AREA
WHERE COASTAL JET STREAMS OFTEN FORM UNDER THIS KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM. SOUTH SEAS WILL REACH WARNING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...WITH SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN THE 14 TO
18 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS
AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. BTL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 215 PM PDT FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE INTO THIS EVENING, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASED HUMIDITIES.
HUMIDITIES ARE ALREADY MUCH HIGHER WEST OF THE CASCADES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LATER TONIGHT, STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE
COAST, MOUNTAINS, AND EAST SIDE, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
RAIN WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING A WETTING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE. AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON THE EAST
SIDE SATURDAY.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE ARE
SPECIFIC CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND
THE PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE, HIGH
INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE NOT A
HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT. ALSO, SNAGS,
BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN WEAKENED OVER THE
SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND, THE ADDED WEIGHT
OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS SHOULD REMAIN
VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON OR
AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

A SECONDARY FRONT MAY BRING A LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY, OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. GENERAL
TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO
COOLER AND MORE HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
LOOKING AT THE FORECAST, IT WOULD APPEAR WE HAVE JUMPED AHEAD A
COUPLE OF MONTHS. IN REALITY, WHAT WE ARE GOING TO EXPERIENCE IS A
LATE FALL TO WINTER TYPE WIND AND RAIN STORM, DURING WHAT WOULD
NORMALLY BE THE THICK OF FIRE SEASON. ACROSS THE BOARD, MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE DEPICTING A SYSTEM THAT DEFIES ANYTHING SEEN IN LATE
AUGUST SINCE AT LEAST 1979, IF NOT LONGER. IN SHORT, EXPECT
WETTING RAINS OVER THE CASCADES AND ALL POINTS WEST, AND GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST, THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE.

THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE, SHOWING A
RATHER IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF, OR RATHER, A VERY UNSEASONABLY
IMPRESSIVE CLOUD FEATURE. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
DIGGING SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS
FEATURE IS KNOWN TO PRODUCE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOWS, AND THIS
ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. WITH PRESSURES AT THE CENTER CURRENTLY SITTING
AT AROUND 1007 MILLIBARS, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE PRESSURE COULD
DROP TO AS LOW AS 992 MILLIBARS BY 5 AM TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL
BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STORM FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST, PARTICULARLY AT THE HEADLANDS AND CAPES. FLOWS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE THERE. HAVE ISSUED WIND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THE
COAST AND EAST SIDE, AS WELL AS THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND ALSO A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE COAST NORTH OF HUMBUG MOUNTAIN. SOME AREAS
WITHIN THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY NOT QUITE REACH CRITERIA, BUT
GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF RECREATION THIS TIME OF YEAR, INCLUDING
FISHING, TOURISM, AND CAMPING, AS WELL AS THE BEGINNING OF SOME
HUNTING SEASONS THIS WEEKEND, HAVE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS ANYWAY DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS AND EXTENSIVE IMPACTS. ALSO OF NOTE,
WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES AND LEAVES REMAINING ON VEGETATION,
WINDS WILL HAVE EXTRA POTENTIAL TO DOWN OR DAMAGE TREES. TRAVEL,
UTILITIES, AND CAMPERS SHOULD BE ON EXTRA ALERT.

IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, THIS STORM SYSTEM WOULD NOT NORMALLY CAUSE US
TO BAT AN EYE, ASSUMING IT WAS LATE IN THE FALL OR IN THE WINTER.
INSTEAD, WE ARE EXPECTING WETTING RAINS FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CASCADES, AND HERE IT IS LATE AUGUST. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE
TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY. ALL TOLD, UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE COAST, WHILE IN THE COASTAL RANGES
IN FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON, AN INCH AND A HALF OR MORE IS POSSIBLE.
INLAND, THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS CAN EXPECT BETWEEN A TENTH AND A
QUARTER INCH, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS COULD REACH UP TO THREE QUARTERS.
OVERALL, A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR FIRE SEASON, AND ONE THAT
COULD ALSO QUENCH AREA WILDFIRES AND CLEAN THE AREA OF OUR
PERSISTENT SMOKE. WHILE IT IS MUCH TO EARLY TO SAY THIS IS A FIRE
SEASON ENDING EVENT, PENDING A POSSIBLE RETURN TO HEAT AND DRYNESS
IN SEPTEMBER, IT MAY VERY WELL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER
AND WETTER REGIME. MODELS HAVE PLACED A SERIES OF TROUGHS OVERHEAD
FOR THE NEXT WEEK AT LEAST, AND EACH ONE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING RAIN AND WIND, ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME, NONE LOOK ANYWHERE NEAR
AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE FIRST. GENERALLY SPEAKING, EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WITH AN INTERMITTENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS. WITH THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST, DO NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE PEAK OF MT SHASTA DISPLAYS A HINT OF NEW WHITE
COVERAGE SOMETIME THIS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
- GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
  TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
  FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 290103
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
603 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS AND HEADLINES

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...SMOKE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE ACTIVE WILDFIRES THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE AND WILL MOSTLY REMAIN VFR INTO
THE EVENING. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARD AND THEN ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE
COAST, MOUNTAINS, AND EAST SIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BREEZY WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND
MVFR VIS/CIGS TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE MOST IMPACTING CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND
SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS,
GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST, AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST
MOVER. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 330 PM PDT FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015... NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY WET LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA 3 DAYS AGO TO WHAT NOW LOOKS AS IF IT WILL
BE A VERY WINDY SOUTH WIND PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. IN FACT, STANDARDIZED ANOMALY INFORMATION FROM BOTH THE NAEFS
AND THE GEFS INDICATE THAT SUCH A STORM HAS NOT OCCURRED IN THE
CLIMATOLOGY OF AT LEAST THE LAST 30 YEARS. SINCE WE DON`T GET THIS
SORT OF WEATHER SYSTEM IN AUGUST, TYPICALLY, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT, IF THIS WAS WINTER, THIS STORM SYSTEM WOULD BE ONLY BE
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE THAN TYPICAL STORMS. THAT SAID, CALM
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
INSIDE OF 130 WEST LONGITUDE NEAR 42 NORTH LATITUDE AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE FAVORED NAM12
PUSHES THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO ABOUT 65 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF
FLORENCE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ON THE WASHINGTON COAST. OTHER
MODELS KEEP THE LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH IT MAKING LANDFALL ON OR
VERY NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE
FORCE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME STORM
FORCE WINDS LIKELY, NORTH AND DOWNWIND OF CAPE BLANCO IN THE AREA
WHERE COASTAL JET STREAMS OFTEN FORM UNDER THIS KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM. SOUTH SEAS WILL REACH WARNING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...WITH SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN THE 14 TO
18 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS
AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. BTL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 215 PM PDT FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE INTO THIS EVENING, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASED HUMIDITIES.
HUMIDITIES ARE ALREADY MUCH HIGHER WEST OF THE CASCADES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LATER TONIGHT, STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE
COAST, MOUNTAINS, AND EAST SIDE, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
RAIN WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING A WETTING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE. AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON THE EAST
SIDE SATURDAY.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE ARE
SPECIFIC CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND
THE PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE, HIGH
INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE NOT A
HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT. ALSO, SNAGS,
BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN WEAKENED OVER THE
SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND, THE ADDED WEIGHT
OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS SHOULD REMAIN
VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON OR
AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

A SECONDARY FRONT MAY BRING A LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY, OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. GENERAL
TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO
COOLER AND MORE HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
LOOKING AT THE FORECAST, IT WOULD APPEAR WE HAVE JUMPED AHEAD A
COUPLE OF MONTHS. IN REALITY, WHAT WE ARE GOING TO EXPERIENCE IS A
LATE FALL TO WINTER TYPE WIND AND RAIN STORM, DURING WHAT WOULD
NORMALLY BE THE THICK OF FIRE SEASON. ACROSS THE BOARD, MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE DEPICTING A SYSTEM THAT DEFIES ANYTHING SEEN IN LATE
AUGUST SINCE AT LEAST 1979, IF NOT LONGER. IN SHORT, EXPECT
WETTING RAINS OVER THE CASCADES AND ALL POINTS WEST, AND GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST, THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE.

THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE, SHOWING A
RATHER IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF, OR RATHER, A VERY UNSEASONABLY
IMPRESSIVE CLOUD FEATURE. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
DIGGING SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS
FEATURE IS KNOWN TO PRODUCE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOWS, AND THIS
ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. WITH PRESSURES AT THE CENTER CURRENTLY SITTING
AT AROUND 1007 MILLIBARS, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE PRESSURE COULD
DROP TO AS LOW AS 992 MILLIBARS BY 5 AM TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL
BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STORM FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST, PARTICULARLY AT THE HEADLANDS AND CAPES. FLOWS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE THERE. HAVE ISSUED WIND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THE
COAST AND EAST SIDE, AS WELL AS THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND ALSO A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE COAST NORTH OF HUMBUG MOUNTAIN. SOME AREAS
WITHIN THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY NOT QUITE REACH CRITERIA, BUT
GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF RECREATION THIS TIME OF YEAR, INCLUDING
FISHING, TOURISM, AND CAMPING, AS WELL AS THE BEGINNING OF SOME
HUNTING SEASONS THIS WEEKEND, HAVE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS ANYWAY DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS AND EXTENSIVE IMPACTS. ALSO OF NOTE,
WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES AND LEAVES REMAINING ON VEGETATION,
WINDS WILL HAVE EXTRA POTENTIAL TO DOWN OR DAMAGE TREES. TRAVEL,
UTILITIES, AND CAMPERS SHOULD BE ON EXTRA ALERT.

IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, THIS STORM SYSTEM WOULD NOT NORMALLY CAUSE US
TO BAT AN EYE, ASSUMING IT WAS LATE IN THE FALL OR IN THE WINTER.
INSTEAD, WE ARE EXPECTING WETTING RAINS FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CASCADES, AND HERE IT IS LATE AUGUST. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE
TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY. ALL TOLD, UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE COAST, WHILE IN THE COASTAL RANGES
IN FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON, AN INCH AND A HALF OR MORE IS POSSIBLE.
INLAND, THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS CAN EXPECT BETWEEN A TENTH AND A
QUARTER INCH, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS COULD REACH UP TO THREE QUARTERS.
OVERALL, A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR FIRE SEASON, AND ONE THAT
COULD ALSO QUENCH AREA WILDFIRES AND CLEAN THE AREA OF OUR
PERSISTENT SMOKE. WHILE IT IS MUCH TO EARLY TO SAY THIS IS A FIRE
SEASON ENDING EVENT, PENDING A POSSIBLE RETURN TO HEAT AND DRYNESS
IN SEPTEMBER, IT MAY VERY WELL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER
AND WETTER REGIME. MODELS HAVE PLACED A SERIES OF TROUGHS OVERHEAD
FOR THE NEXT WEEK AT LEAST, AND EACH ONE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING RAIN AND WIND, ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME, NONE LOOK ANYWHERE NEAR
AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE FIRST. GENERALLY SPEAKING, EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WITH AN INTERMITTENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS. WITH THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST, DO NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE PEAK OF MT SHASTA DISPLAYS A HINT OF NEW WHITE
COVERAGE SOMETIME THIS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
- GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
  TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
  FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 290103
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
603 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS AND HEADLINES

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...SMOKE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE ACTIVE WILDFIRES THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE AND WILL MOSTLY REMAIN VFR INTO
THE EVENING. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARD AND THEN ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE
COAST, MOUNTAINS, AND EAST SIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BREEZY WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND
MVFR VIS/CIGS TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE MOST IMPACTING CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND
SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS,
GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST, AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST
MOVER. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 330 PM PDT FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015... NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FROM WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY WET LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA 3 DAYS AGO TO WHAT NOW LOOKS AS IF IT WILL
BE A VERY WINDY SOUTH WIND PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. IN FACT, STANDARDIZED ANOMALY INFORMATION FROM BOTH THE NAEFS
AND THE GEFS INDICATE THAT SUCH A STORM HAS NOT OCCURRED IN THE
CLIMATOLOGY OF AT LEAST THE LAST 30 YEARS. SINCE WE DON`T GET THIS
SORT OF WEATHER SYSTEM IN AUGUST, TYPICALLY, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT, IF THIS WAS WINTER, THIS STORM SYSTEM WOULD BE ONLY BE
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE THAN TYPICAL STORMS. THAT SAID, CALM
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
INSIDE OF 130 WEST LONGITUDE NEAR 42 NORTH LATITUDE AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE FAVORED NAM12
PUSHES THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO ABOUT 65 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF
FLORENCE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ON THE WASHINGTON COAST. OTHER
MODELS KEEP THE LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH IT MAKING LANDFALL ON OR
VERY NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE
FORCE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME STORM
FORCE WINDS LIKELY, NORTH AND DOWNWIND OF CAPE BLANCO IN THE AREA
WHERE COASTAL JET STREAMS OFTEN FORM UNDER THIS KIND OF WEATHER
SYSTEM. SOUTH SEAS WILL REACH WARNING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...WITH SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN THE 14 TO
18 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS
AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. BTL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 215 PM PDT FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE INTO THIS EVENING, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASED HUMIDITIES.
HUMIDITIES ARE ALREADY MUCH HIGHER WEST OF THE CASCADES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LATER TONIGHT, STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE
COAST, MOUNTAINS, AND EAST SIDE, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
RAIN WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING A WETTING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE. AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON THE EAST
SIDE SATURDAY.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE ARE
SPECIFIC CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND
THE PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE, HIGH
INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE NOT A
HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT. ALSO, SNAGS,
BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN WEAKENED OVER THE
SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND, THE ADDED WEIGHT
OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS SHOULD REMAIN
VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON OR
AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

A SECONDARY FRONT MAY BRING A LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY, OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. GENERAL
TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO
COOLER AND MORE HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
LOOKING AT THE FORECAST, IT WOULD APPEAR WE HAVE JUMPED AHEAD A
COUPLE OF MONTHS. IN REALITY, WHAT WE ARE GOING TO EXPERIENCE IS A
LATE FALL TO WINTER TYPE WIND AND RAIN STORM, DURING WHAT WOULD
NORMALLY BE THE THICK OF FIRE SEASON. ACROSS THE BOARD, MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE DEPICTING A SYSTEM THAT DEFIES ANYTHING SEEN IN LATE
AUGUST SINCE AT LEAST 1979, IF NOT LONGER. IN SHORT, EXPECT
WETTING RAINS OVER THE CASCADES AND ALL POINTS WEST, AND GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST, THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE.

THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE, SHOWING A
RATHER IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF, OR RATHER, A VERY UNSEASONABLY
IMPRESSIVE CLOUD FEATURE. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
DIGGING SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS
FEATURE IS KNOWN TO PRODUCE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOWS, AND THIS
ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. WITH PRESSURES AT THE CENTER CURRENTLY SITTING
AT AROUND 1007 MILLIBARS, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE PRESSURE COULD
DROP TO AS LOW AS 992 MILLIBARS BY 5 AM TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL
BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STORM FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST, PARTICULARLY AT THE HEADLANDS AND CAPES. FLOWS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE THERE. HAVE ISSUED WIND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THE
COAST AND EAST SIDE, AS WELL AS THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND ALSO A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE COAST NORTH OF HUMBUG MOUNTAIN. SOME AREAS
WITHIN THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY NOT QUITE REACH CRITERIA, BUT
GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF RECREATION THIS TIME OF YEAR, INCLUDING
FISHING, TOURISM, AND CAMPING, AS WELL AS THE BEGINNING OF SOME
HUNTING SEASONS THIS WEEKEND, HAVE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS ANYWAY DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS AND EXTENSIVE IMPACTS. ALSO OF NOTE,
WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES AND LEAVES REMAINING ON VEGETATION,
WINDS WILL HAVE EXTRA POTENTIAL TO DOWN OR DAMAGE TREES. TRAVEL,
UTILITIES, AND CAMPERS SHOULD BE ON EXTRA ALERT.

IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, THIS STORM SYSTEM WOULD NOT NORMALLY CAUSE US
TO BAT AN EYE, ASSUMING IT WAS LATE IN THE FALL OR IN THE WINTER.
INSTEAD, WE ARE EXPECTING WETTING RAINS FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CASCADES, AND HERE IT IS LATE AUGUST. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE
TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY. ALL TOLD, UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE COAST, WHILE IN THE COASTAL RANGES
IN FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON, AN INCH AND A HALF OR MORE IS POSSIBLE.
INLAND, THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS CAN EXPECT BETWEEN A TENTH AND A
QUARTER INCH, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS COULD REACH UP TO THREE QUARTERS.
OVERALL, A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR FIRE SEASON, AND ONE THAT
COULD ALSO QUENCH AREA WILDFIRES AND CLEAN THE AREA OF OUR
PERSISTENT SMOKE. WHILE IT IS MUCH TO EARLY TO SAY THIS IS A FIRE
SEASON ENDING EVENT, PENDING A POSSIBLE RETURN TO HEAT AND DRYNESS
IN SEPTEMBER, IT MAY VERY WELL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER
AND WETTER REGIME. MODELS HAVE PLACED A SERIES OF TROUGHS OVERHEAD
FOR THE NEXT WEEK AT LEAST, AND EACH ONE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING RAIN AND WIND, ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME, NONE LOOK ANYWHERE NEAR
AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE FIRST. GENERALLY SPEAKING, EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WITH AN INTERMITTENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS. WITH THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST, DO NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE PEAK OF MT SHASTA DISPLAYS A HINT OF NEW WHITE
COVERAGE SOMETIME THIS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
- GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
  TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
  FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW




000
FXUS66 KPQR 282235
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK COMPARED TO THE
MODELS AND SATELLITE TRENDS AS A VERY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTH OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH AND WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE HIGH WIND
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EXPOSED AREAS
OF THE COAST RANGE...AS WELL AS WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS AND OVER THE CASCADES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF
RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN COOLER AND UNSETTLED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...AS EXPECTED...MODEL FORECASTS AND SATELLITE TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL SEEMS WELL ON TRACK
WITH OUR VERY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER.

THE STRONGEST SYSTEM OF THE EXPECTED SERIES IS A LOW THAT CONTINUES
TO GAIN STRENGTH OFF THE SOUTH OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS.
SATELLITE TRENDS OF A STRONGLY DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD AND
THE COLD AIR CUMULUS NEAR ITS CENTER TESTIFY TO THE UNSEASONABLY
DYNAMIC AND BAROCLINIC CHARACTER OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS
ENTRAINED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT HAD BEEN OUT AROUND THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS SYSTEM NORTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE
COAST...POSSIBLY DEEPENING AS LOW AS 990 MB OR PERHAPS A BIT LOWER.
THE WINDS MAY START NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST AROUND 12Z SATURDAY THEN
MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING... WITH THE
GRADIENT FINALLY EASING BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z ON SATURDAY... THAT IS 11
AM TO 2 PM. HIGH WIND WATCHES ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS. ALSO ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES
IN THE INLAND VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
MIGHT NOT QUITE MAKE ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT MANY TREES ARE STRESSED
FROM THE DRY SUMMER...THEY ARE FULL OF LEAVES... AND THERE ARE MANY
OUTDOOR EVENTS THAT HAVE TENTS AND THE LIKE THAT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO THE WINDS. THERE WILL BE A SURGE IN RAIN AS WELL...BUT OFTEN THE
RAIN IS NOT QUITE AS HEAVY AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT WITH THESE WIND
STORMS.

WE MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING... POSSIBLY
EXTENDING INLAND INTO THE NORTH INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS AND DECREASE BY AFTERNOON...
BUT THE NEXT FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 50N/135W WILL REACH THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AND SWING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A DECENT RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS PRETTY BREEZY
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO GALES AGAIN AT THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM
HAS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ONE OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOONS
IN IT.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTH
WITH CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS PRIMARILY UP
ABOVE 10KFT. CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING
AROUND 03Z AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS MAKE THERE WAY ONTO THE
COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
DROPS IN VIS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS MOVES INLAND AROUND
08Z WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS AT INLAND TAF SITES TO LOW VFR...
OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS
ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE AROUND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND 12Z TO 15Z ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT INLAND SITES START TO
INCREASE AROUND 11 TO 13Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND
OCCASIONALLY TO 40 KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
MOVE IN AROUND 08Z LOWERING CIGS TO LOW VFR WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS
TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 11Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO
35 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE. -MCCOY


&&


.MARINE...FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM APPROX 400
MI WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AT LEAST
HIGH END GALES. MODELS HAVE STARTED TRENDING STRONGER...WHICH MAY
INDICATE AT LEAST A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
ANOTHER RUN DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO BEFORE CONFIDENCE IMPROVES
ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO STORM WARNING. AS WINDS INCREASE...SEAS WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 5 FT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15 TO 17 FT. SEAS STAY UP AROUND 13 TO 17
FT UNTIL WINDS DECREASE SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND FALL BACK DOWN TO 15 KT
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
AROUND 8 TO 10 FT WITH WINDS WITH WINDS DECREASING FURTHER TO 10
TO 15 KT BY SUNDAY EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING
AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. -MCCOY


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COAST RANGE

     OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 282235
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK COMPARED TO THE
MODELS AND SATELLITE TRENDS AS A VERY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTH OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH AND WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE HIGH WIND
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EXPOSED AREAS
OF THE COAST RANGE...AS WELL AS WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS AND OVER THE CASCADES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF
RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN COOLER AND UNSETTLED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...AS EXPECTED...MODEL FORECASTS AND SATELLITE TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL SEEMS WELL ON TRACK
WITH OUR VERY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER.

THE STRONGEST SYSTEM OF THE EXPECTED SERIES IS A LOW THAT CONTINUES
TO GAIN STRENGTH OFF THE SOUTH OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS.
SATELLITE TRENDS OF A STRONGLY DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD AND
THE COLD AIR CUMULUS NEAR ITS CENTER TESTIFY TO THE UNSEASONABLY
DYNAMIC AND BAROCLINIC CHARACTER OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS
ENTRAINED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT HAD BEEN OUT AROUND THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS SYSTEM NORTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE
COAST...POSSIBLY DEEPENING AS LOW AS 990 MB OR PERHAPS A BIT LOWER.
THE WINDS MAY START NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST AROUND 12Z SATURDAY THEN
MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING... WITH THE
GRADIENT FINALLY EASING BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z ON SATURDAY... THAT IS 11
AM TO 2 PM. HIGH WIND WATCHES ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS. ALSO ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES
IN THE INLAND VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
MIGHT NOT QUITE MAKE ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT MANY TREES ARE STRESSED
FROM THE DRY SUMMER...THEY ARE FULL OF LEAVES... AND THERE ARE MANY
OUTDOOR EVENTS THAT HAVE TENTS AND THE LIKE THAT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO THE WINDS. THERE WILL BE A SURGE IN RAIN AS WELL...BUT OFTEN THE
RAIN IS NOT QUITE AS HEAVY AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT WITH THESE WIND
STORMS.

WE MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING... POSSIBLY
EXTENDING INLAND INTO THE NORTH INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS AND DECREASE BY AFTERNOON...
BUT THE NEXT FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 50N/135W WILL REACH THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AND SWING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A DECENT RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS PRETTY BREEZY
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO GALES AGAIN AT THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM
HAS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ONE OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOONS
IN IT.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTH
WITH CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS PRIMARILY UP
ABOVE 10KFT. CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING
AROUND 03Z AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS MAKE THERE WAY ONTO THE
COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
DROPS IN VIS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS MOVES INLAND AROUND
08Z WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS AT INLAND TAF SITES TO LOW VFR...
OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS
ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE AROUND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND 12Z TO 15Z ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT INLAND SITES START TO
INCREASE AROUND 11 TO 13Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND
OCCASIONALLY TO 40 KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
MOVE IN AROUND 08Z LOWERING CIGS TO LOW VFR WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS
TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 11Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO
35 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE. -MCCOY


&&


.MARINE...FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM APPROX 400
MI WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AT LEAST
HIGH END GALES. MODELS HAVE STARTED TRENDING STRONGER...WHICH MAY
INDICATE AT LEAST A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
ANOTHER RUN DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO BEFORE CONFIDENCE IMPROVES
ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO STORM WARNING. AS WINDS INCREASE...SEAS WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 5 FT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15 TO 17 FT. SEAS STAY UP AROUND 13 TO 17
FT UNTIL WINDS DECREASE SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND FALL BACK DOWN TO 15 KT
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
AROUND 8 TO 10 FT WITH WINDS WITH WINDS DECREASING FURTHER TO 10
TO 15 KT BY SUNDAY EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING
AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. -MCCOY


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COAST RANGE

     OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 282235
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK COMPARED TO THE
MODELS AND SATELLITE TRENDS AS A VERY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTH OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH AND WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE HIGH WIND
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EXPOSED AREAS
OF THE COAST RANGE...AS WELL AS WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND
VALLEYS AND OVER THE CASCADES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF
RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN COOLER AND UNSETTLED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&


.SHORT TERM...AS EXPECTED...MODEL FORECASTS AND SATELLITE TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL SEEMS WELL ON TRACK
WITH OUR VERY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER.

THE STRONGEST SYSTEM OF THE EXPECTED SERIES IS A LOW THAT CONTINUES
TO GAIN STRENGTH OFF THE SOUTH OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS.
SATELLITE TRENDS OF A STRONGLY DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD AND
THE COLD AIR CUMULUS NEAR ITS CENTER TESTIFY TO THE UNSEASONABLY
DYNAMIC AND BAROCLINIC CHARACTER OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS
ENTRAINED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT HAD BEEN OUT AROUND THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS SYSTEM NORTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE
COAST...POSSIBLY DEEPENING AS LOW AS 990 MB OR PERHAPS A BIT LOWER.
THE WINDS MAY START NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST AROUND 12Z SATURDAY THEN
MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING... WITH THE
GRADIENT FINALLY EASING BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z ON SATURDAY... THAT IS 11
AM TO 2 PM. HIGH WIND WATCHES ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS. ALSO ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES
IN THE INLAND VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
MIGHT NOT QUITE MAKE ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT MANY TREES ARE STRESSED
FROM THE DRY SUMMER...THEY ARE FULL OF LEAVES... AND THERE ARE MANY
OUTDOOR EVENTS THAT HAVE TENTS AND THE LIKE THAT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO THE WINDS. THERE WILL BE A SURGE IN RAIN AS WELL...BUT OFTEN THE
RAIN IS NOT QUITE AS HEAVY AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT WITH THESE WIND
STORMS.

WE MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING... POSSIBLY
EXTENDING INLAND INTO THE NORTH INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS AND DECREASE BY AFTERNOON...
BUT THE NEXT FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 50N/135W WILL REACH THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AND SWING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A DECENT RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS PRETTY BREEZY
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO GALES AGAIN AT THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM
HAS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ONE OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOONS
IN IT.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTH
WITH CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. TOLLESON


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS PRIMARILY UP
ABOVE 10KFT. CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING
AROUND 03Z AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS MAKE THERE WAY ONTO THE
COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
DROPS IN VIS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS MOVES INLAND AROUND
08Z WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS AT INLAND TAF SITES TO LOW VFR...
OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS
ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE AROUND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND 12Z TO 15Z ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT INLAND SITES START TO
INCREASE AROUND 11 TO 13Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AND
OCCASIONALLY TO 40 KT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
MOVE IN AROUND 08Z LOWERING CIGS TO LOW VFR WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS
TO MVFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND 11Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO
35 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40 KT POSSIBLE. -MCCOY


&&


.MARINE...FALL-LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM APPROX 400
MI WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AT LEAST
HIGH END GALES. MODELS HAVE STARTED TRENDING STRONGER...WHICH MAY
INDICATE AT LEAST A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
ANOTHER RUN DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO BEFORE CONFIDENCE IMPROVES
ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO STORM WARNING. AS WINDS INCREASE...SEAS WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 5 FT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15 TO 17 FT. SEAS STAY UP AROUND 13 TO 17
FT UNTIL WINDS DECREASE SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND FALL BACK DOWN TO 15 KT
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
AROUND 8 TO 10 FT WITH WINDS WITH WINDS DECREASING FURTHER TO 10
TO 15 KT BY SUNDAY EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING
AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. -MCCOY


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COAST RANGE

     OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WILLAPA
     HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 282159
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
259 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE FORECAST, IT WOULD APPEAR WE HAVE
JUMPED AHEAD A COUPLE OF MONTHS. IN REALITY, WHAT WE ARE GOING TO
EXPERIENCE IS A LATE FALL TO WINTER TYPE WIND AND RAIN STORM,
DURING WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE THE THICK OF FIRE SEASON. ACROSS THE
BOARD, MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DEPICTING A SYSTEM THAT DEFIES ANYTHING
SEEN IN LATE AUGUST SINCE AT LEAST 1979, IF NOT LONGER. IN SHORT,
EXPECT WETTING RAINS OVER THE CASCADES AND ALL POINTS WEST, AND
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST, THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND ACROSS THE
EAST SIDE.

THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE, SHOWING A
RATHER IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF, OR RATHER, A VERY UNSEASONABLY
IMPRESSIVE CLOUD FEATURE. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
DIGGING SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS
FEATURE IS KNOWN TO PRODUCE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOWS, AND THIS
ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. WITH PRESSURES AT THE CENTER CURRENTLY SITTING
AT AROUND 1007 MILLIBARS, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE PRESSURE COULD
DROP TO AS LOW AS 992 MILLIBARS BY 5 AM TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL
BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STORM FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST, PARTICULARLY AT THE HEADLANDS AND CAPES. FLOWS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE THERE. HAVE ISSUED WIND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THE
COAST AND EAST SIDE, AS WELL AS THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND ALSO A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE COAST NORTH OF HUMBUG MOUNTAIN. SOME AREAS
WITHIN THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY NOT QUITE REACH CRITERIA, BUT
GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF RECREATION THIS TIME OF YEAR, INCLUDING
FISHING, TOURISM, AND CAMPING, AS WELL AS THE BEGINNING OF SOME
HUNTING SEASONS THIS WEEKEND, HAVE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS ANYWAY DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS AND EXTENSIVE IMPACTS. ALSO OF NOTE,
WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES AND LEAVES REMAINING ON VEGETATION,
WINDS WILL HAVE EXTRA POTENTIAL TO DOWN OR DAMAGE TREES. TRAVEL,
UTILITIES, AND CAMPERS SHOULD BE ON EXTRA ALERT.

IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, THIS STORM SYSTEM WOULD NOT NORMALLY CAUSE US
TO BAT AN EYE, ASSUMING IT WAS LATE IN THE FALL OR IN THE WINTER.
INSTEAD, WE ARE EXPECTING WETTING RAINS FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CASCADES, AND HERE IT IS LATE AUGUST. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE
TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY. ALL TOLD, UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE COAST, WHILE IN THE COASTAL RANGES
IN FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON, AN INCH AND A HALF OR MORE IS POSSIBLE.
INLAND, THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS CAN EXPECT BETWEEN A TENTH AND A
QUARTER INCH, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS COULD REACH UP TO THREE QUARTERS.
OVERALL, A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR FIRE SEASON, AND ONE THAT
COULD ALSO QUENCH AREA WILDFIRES AND CLEAN THE AREA OF OUR
PERSISTENT SMOKE. WHILE IT IS MUCH TO EARLY TO SAY THIS IS A FIRE
SEASON ENDING EVENT, PENDING A POSSIBLE RETURN TO HEAT AND DRYNESS
IN SEPTEMBER, IT MAY VERY WELL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER
AND WETTER REGIME. MODELS HAVE PLACED A SERIES OF TROUGHS OVERHEAD
FOR THE NEXT WEEK AT LEAST, AND EACH ONE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING RAIN AND WIND, ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME, NONE LOOK ANYWHERE NEAR
AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE FIRST. GENERALLY SPEAKING, EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WITH AN INTERMITTENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS. WITH THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST, DO NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE PEAK OF MT SHASTA DISPLAYS A HINT OF NEW WHITE
COVERAGE SOMETIME THIS NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/18Z TAF CYCLE...SMOKE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
MVFR VIS IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR INTO THE EVENING. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST,
MOUNTAINS, AND EAST SIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH
BREEZY WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF WINDS, LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND MVFR VIS/CIGS TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS AS IT PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015...LIGHT WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THEN A SURFACE LOW WILL NEAR THE
WATERS TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY,
BRINGING INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
AROUND NOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
ACROSS ALL OF OUR WATERS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GALES TO STORM
FORCE WINDS AND VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS BY EARLY SATURDAY,
MAINLY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF GOLD BEACH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT AREAS OF GALES AND VERY STEEP
HAZARDOUS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
GOLD BEACH. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MODERATE RAIN
WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOW VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. AS THE
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. MULTIPLE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED SNEAKER WAVE ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY, BUT MODERATE
LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 215 PM PDT FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE INTO THIS EVENING, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASED HUMIDITIES.
HUMIDITIES ARE ALREADY MUCH HIGHER WEST OF THE CASCADES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LATER TONIGHT, STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE
COAST, MOUNTAINS, AND EAST SIDE, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
RAIN WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING A WETTING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE. AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON THE EAST
SIDE SATURDAY.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE ARE
SPECIFIC CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND
THE PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE, HIGH
INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE NOT A
HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT. ALSO, SNAGS,
BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN WEAKENED OVER THE
SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND, THE ADDED WEIGHT
OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS SHOULD REMAIN
VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON OR
AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

A SECONDARY FRONT MAY BRING A LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY, OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. GENERAL
TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO
COOLER AND MORE HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BPN/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 282159
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
259 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE FORECAST, IT WOULD APPEAR WE HAVE
JUMPED AHEAD A COUPLE OF MONTHS. IN REALITY, WHAT WE ARE GOING TO
EXPERIENCE IS A LATE FALL TO WINTER TYPE WIND AND RAIN STORM,
DURING WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE THE THICK OF FIRE SEASON. ACROSS THE
BOARD, MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DEPICTING A SYSTEM THAT DEFIES ANYTHING
SEEN IN LATE AUGUST SINCE AT LEAST 1979, IF NOT LONGER. IN SHORT,
EXPECT WETTING RAINS OVER THE CASCADES AND ALL POINTS WEST, AND
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST, THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND ACROSS THE
EAST SIDE.

THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE, SHOWING A
RATHER IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF, OR RATHER, A VERY UNSEASONABLY
IMPRESSIVE CLOUD FEATURE. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
DIGGING SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS
FEATURE IS KNOWN TO PRODUCE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOWS, AND THIS
ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. WITH PRESSURES AT THE CENTER CURRENTLY SITTING
AT AROUND 1007 MILLIBARS, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE PRESSURE COULD
DROP TO AS LOW AS 992 MILLIBARS BY 5 AM TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL
BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STORM FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST, PARTICULARLY AT THE HEADLANDS AND CAPES. FLOWS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE THERE. HAVE ISSUED WIND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THE
COAST AND EAST SIDE, AS WELL AS THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND ALSO A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE COAST NORTH OF HUMBUG MOUNTAIN. SOME AREAS
WITHIN THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY NOT QUITE REACH CRITERIA, BUT
GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF RECREATION THIS TIME OF YEAR, INCLUDING
FISHING, TOURISM, AND CAMPING, AS WELL AS THE BEGINNING OF SOME
HUNTING SEASONS THIS WEEKEND, HAVE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS ANYWAY DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS AND EXTENSIVE IMPACTS. ALSO OF NOTE,
WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES AND LEAVES REMAINING ON VEGETATION,
WINDS WILL HAVE EXTRA POTENTIAL TO DOWN OR DAMAGE TREES. TRAVEL,
UTILITIES, AND CAMPERS SHOULD BE ON EXTRA ALERT.

IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, THIS STORM SYSTEM WOULD NOT NORMALLY CAUSE US
TO BAT AN EYE, ASSUMING IT WAS LATE IN THE FALL OR IN THE WINTER.
INSTEAD, WE ARE EXPECTING WETTING RAINS FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CASCADES, AND HERE IT IS LATE AUGUST. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE
TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY. ALL TOLD, UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE COAST, WHILE IN THE COASTAL RANGES
IN FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON, AN INCH AND A HALF OR MORE IS POSSIBLE.
INLAND, THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS CAN EXPECT BETWEEN A TENTH AND A
QUARTER INCH, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS COULD REACH UP TO THREE QUARTERS.
OVERALL, A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR FIRE SEASON, AND ONE THAT
COULD ALSO QUENCH AREA WILDFIRES AND CLEAN THE AREA OF OUR
PERSISTENT SMOKE. WHILE IT IS MUCH TO EARLY TO SAY THIS IS A FIRE
SEASON ENDING EVENT, PENDING A POSSIBLE RETURN TO HEAT AND DRYNESS
IN SEPTEMBER, IT MAY VERY WELL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER
AND WETTER REGIME. MODELS HAVE PLACED A SERIES OF TROUGHS OVERHEAD
FOR THE NEXT WEEK AT LEAST, AND EACH ONE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING RAIN AND WIND, ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME, NONE LOOK ANYWHERE NEAR
AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE FIRST. GENERALLY SPEAKING, EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WITH AN INTERMITTENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS. WITH THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST, DO NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE PEAK OF MT SHASTA DISPLAYS A HINT OF NEW WHITE
COVERAGE SOMETIME THIS NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/18Z TAF CYCLE...SMOKE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
MVFR VIS IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR INTO THE EVENING. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST,
MOUNTAINS, AND EAST SIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH
BREEZY WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF WINDS, LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND MVFR VIS/CIGS TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS AS IT PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015...LIGHT WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THEN A SURFACE LOW WILL NEAR THE
WATERS TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY,
BRINGING INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
AROUND NOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
ACROSS ALL OF OUR WATERS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GALES TO STORM
FORCE WINDS AND VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS BY EARLY SATURDAY,
MAINLY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF GOLD BEACH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT AREAS OF GALES AND VERY STEEP
HAZARDOUS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
GOLD BEACH. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MODERATE RAIN
WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOW VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. AS THE
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. MULTIPLE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED SNEAKER WAVE ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY, BUT MODERATE
LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 215 PM PDT FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE INTO THIS EVENING, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASED HUMIDITIES.
HUMIDITIES ARE ALREADY MUCH HIGHER WEST OF THE CASCADES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LATER TONIGHT, STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE
COAST, MOUNTAINS, AND EAST SIDE, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
RAIN WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING AND BRING A WETTING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE. AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON THE EAST
SIDE SATURDAY.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE ARE
SPECIFIC CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND
THE PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE, HIGH
INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE NOT A
HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT. ALSO, SNAGS,
BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN WEAKENED OVER THE
SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND, THE ADDED WEIGHT
OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS SHOULD REMAIN
VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON OR
AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

A SECONDARY FRONT MAY BRING A LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY, OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. GENERAL
TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO
COOLER AND MORE HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BPN/TRW



000
FXUS66 KPDT 282151
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
250 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SOUTH TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE TROUGH AXIS ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 135
WEST LONGITUDE, BUT WILL SHIFT TO NEAR 130 WEST SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT. PATCHY SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL, WITH THICKER AREAS OF SMOKE
IN SOUTHEAST GRANT COUNTY. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY, IT
WILL KICK AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 38N/135W NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON, AND NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL OREGON WILL BE WINDS. AT THIS
TIME WINDS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL RUN IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES.
HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS WINDS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD STAY IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS COULD LOCALLY OCCUR DURING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES OF
WASHINGTON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN, BUT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. HIGH TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S, WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A DEEP
TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DROP EVEN
FURTHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BY MIDWEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE CASCADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN
A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO MIDDAY SATURDAY.
CEILINGS WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT 8K-12K FEET AGL BUT AGAIN
COULD SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. SMOKE
FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT ANY TAF SITE.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACH THE CASCADES AFTER
10Z BUT THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS AT ANY TAF SITE IS FAIRLY
LOW DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING. A SIGNIFICANT WIND INCREASE IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY OF 20-30 KTS AND HIGHER GUST
RESULTING IN BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CASCADES AND
EAST SLOPES OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  82  54  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALW  66  83  60  74 /  10  20  10  40
PSC  60  83  52  77 /  10  10  20  30
YKM  60  73  50  70 /  10  20  40  20
HRI  61  84  53  76 /   0  10  10  30
ELN  58  73  51  71 /  20  30  50  30
RDM  57  77  44  68 /  10  30  20  20
LGD  53  84  47  69 /  10  20  10  30
GCD  56  81  46  73 /  10  20  10  20
DLS  64  79  60  73 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ510-511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-
     507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-507-508.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ641-643-
     645-675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WAZ027>029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ027>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/91/91/94



000
FXUS66 KPDT 282151
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
250 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SOUTH TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE TROUGH AXIS ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 135
WEST LONGITUDE, BUT WILL SHIFT TO NEAR 130 WEST SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT. PATCHY SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL, WITH THICKER AREAS OF SMOKE
IN SOUTHEAST GRANT COUNTY. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY, IT
WILL KICK AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 38N/135W NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON, AND NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL OREGON WILL BE WINDS. AT THIS
TIME WINDS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL RUN IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES.
HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS WINDS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD STAY IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS COULD LOCALLY OCCUR DURING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES OF
WASHINGTON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN, BUT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. HIGH TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S, WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A DEEP
TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DROP EVEN
FURTHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BY MIDWEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE CASCADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN
A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO MIDDAY SATURDAY.
CEILINGS WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT 8K-12K FEET AGL BUT AGAIN
COULD SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. SMOKE
FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT ANY TAF SITE.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACH THE CASCADES AFTER
10Z BUT THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS AT ANY TAF SITE IS FAIRLY
LOW DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING. A SIGNIFICANT WIND INCREASE IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY OF 20-30 KTS AND HIGHER GUST
RESULTING IN BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CASCADES AND
EAST SLOPES OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  82  54  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALW  66  83  60  74 /  10  20  10  40
PSC  60  83  52  77 /  10  10  20  30
YKM  60  73  50  70 /  10  20  40  20
HRI  61  84  53  76 /   0  10  10  30
ELN  58  73  51  71 /  20  30  50  30
RDM  57  77  44  68 /  10  30  20  20
LGD  53  84  47  69 /  10  20  10  30
GCD  56  81  46  73 /  10  20  10  20
DLS  64  79  60  73 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ510-511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-
     507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-507-508.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ641-643-
     645-675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WAZ027>029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ027>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/91/91/94




000
FXUS66 KPDT 282151
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
250 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SOUTH TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE TROUGH AXIS ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 135
WEST LONGITUDE, BUT WILL SHIFT TO NEAR 130 WEST SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT. PATCHY SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL, WITH THICKER AREAS OF SMOKE
IN SOUTHEAST GRANT COUNTY. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY, IT
WILL KICK AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 38N/135W NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON, AND NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL OREGON WILL BE WINDS. AT THIS
TIME WINDS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL RUN IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES.
HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS WINDS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD STAY IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS COULD LOCALLY OCCUR DURING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES OF
WASHINGTON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN, BUT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. HIGH TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S, WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A DEEP
TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DROP EVEN
FURTHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BY MIDWEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE CASCADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN
A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO MIDDAY SATURDAY.
CEILINGS WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT 8K-12K FEET AGL BUT AGAIN
COULD SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. SMOKE
FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT ANY TAF SITE.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACH THE CASCADES AFTER
10Z BUT THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS AT ANY TAF SITE IS FAIRLY
LOW DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING. A SIGNIFICANT WIND INCREASE IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY OF 20-30 KTS AND HIGHER GUST
RESULTING IN BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CASCADES AND
EAST SLOPES OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  82  54  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALW  66  83  60  74 /  10  20  10  40
PSC  60  83  52  77 /  10  10  20  30
YKM  60  73  50  70 /  10  20  40  20
HRI  61  84  53  76 /   0  10  10  30
ELN  58  73  51  71 /  20  30  50  30
RDM  57  77  44  68 /  10  30  20  20
LGD  53  84  47  69 /  10  20  10  30
GCD  56  81  46  73 /  10  20  10  20
DLS  64  79  60  73 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ510-511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-
     507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-507-508.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ641-643-
     645-675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WAZ027>029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ027>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/91/91/94



000
FXUS66 KPDT 282151
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
250 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SOUTH TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE TROUGH AXIS ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 135
WEST LONGITUDE, BUT WILL SHIFT TO NEAR 130 WEST SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL KEEP VARYING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT. PATCHY SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL, WITH THICKER AREAS OF SMOKE
IN SOUTHEAST GRANT COUNTY. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY, IT
WILL KICK AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 38N/135W NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON, AND NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL OREGON WILL BE WINDS. AT THIS
TIME WINDS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL RUN IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES.
HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AS WINDS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD STAY IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE. BRIEF STRONGER WINDS COULD LOCALLY OCCUR DURING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. ALSO A FEW
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES OF
WASHINGTON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN, BUT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. HIGH TEMPS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S, WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A DEEP
TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN DROP EVEN
FURTHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BY MIDWEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE CASCADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN
A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO MIDDAY SATURDAY.
CEILINGS WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT 8K-12K FEET AGL BUT AGAIN
COULD SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. SMOKE
FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT ANY TAF SITE.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACH THE CASCADES AFTER
10Z BUT THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS AT ANY TAF SITE IS FAIRLY
LOW DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING. A SIGNIFICANT WIND INCREASE IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY OF 20-30 KTS AND HIGHER GUST
RESULTING IN BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CASCADES AND
EAST SLOPES OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  82  54  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALW  66  83  60  74 /  10  20  10  40
PSC  60  83  52  77 /  10  10  20  30
YKM  60  73  50  70 /  10  20  40  20
HRI  61  84  53  76 /   0  10  10  30
ELN  58  73  51  71 /  20  30  50  30
RDM  57  77  44  68 /  10  30  20  20
LGD  53  84  47  69 /  10  20  10  30
GCD  56  81  46  73 /  10  20  10  20
DLS  64  79  60  73 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ510-511.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ640>645.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-
     507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-507-508.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ641-643-
     645-675.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WAZ027>029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ027>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/91/91/94




000
FXUS65 KBOI 282037
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
237 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WERE FORMING IN ERN
OWYHEE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY...NEAR WHERE MODELS
PUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL COME INLAND OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS OREGON ZONES MIDDAY SATURDAY
AND IDAHO ZONES LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING.  FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR
COUNTIES SATURDAY.  FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING TO
THE OREGON SIDE LATE SATURDAY...BUT IDAHO WILL HAVE TIME TO GET
WARM AGAIN SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.  EVEN WITH COLD
ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS
MILD...BUT SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN ALL ZONES.  MODELS
KEEP OREGON ZONES DRY SATURDAY BUT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST IT WILL
MOISTEN AND IDAHO ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE EAST OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AND WE
SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN EXCEPT ALONG NRN BORDER ZONES IN THE HEART OF
THE UPPER TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LONGWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SIT OFF THE PACNW COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO DO SO FOR
THE MID AND LONG TERM. AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES MODELS INDICATING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE FLOW SLOWLY MOVING INLAND...BUT WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE CWA. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY....NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES INTO WASHINGTON
THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. ECMWF SHOWS THIS LOW
PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM
STALLING OUT AND NOT MAKING PASSAGE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND EXACT TIMING. BECAUSE OF THIS
DISAGREEMENT...WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS AND
LIMITED THE HIGHER POPS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECTED TEMPS DURING
THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. OCCASIONAL MVFR FROM
WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF A LINE KBNO-KSNT. SLIGHT CHANGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAGIC VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS NEAR 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12
KTS OR LESS...BUT AFTER 29/18Z INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN SE OREGON...WITH
FORECAST GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SW 10-
15 KTS...THEN BY 29/12Z SSW 35-50 KTS...THEN DECREASING AFTER 30/00Z
TO 20-25 KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
SUNDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS AND CALMER WINDS WITH PASSING CLOUDS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP/JC
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 282037
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
237 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WERE FORMING IN ERN
OWYHEE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY...NEAR WHERE MODELS
PUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL COME INLAND OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS OREGON ZONES MIDDAY SATURDAY
AND IDAHO ZONES LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING.  FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR
COUNTIES SATURDAY.  FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING TO
THE OREGON SIDE LATE SATURDAY...BUT IDAHO WILL HAVE TIME TO GET
WARM AGAIN SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.  EVEN WITH COLD
ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS
MILD...BUT SUNDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN ALL ZONES.  MODELS
KEEP OREGON ZONES DRY SATURDAY BUT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST IT WILL
MOISTEN AND IDAHO ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE EAST OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AND WE
SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN EXCEPT ALONG NRN BORDER ZONES IN THE HEART OF
THE UPPER TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LONGWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SIT OFF THE PACNW COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO DO SO FOR
THE MID AND LONG TERM. AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES MODELS INDICATING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE FLOW SLOWLY MOVING INLAND...BUT WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE CWA. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY....NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES INTO WASHINGTON
THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. ECMWF SHOWS THIS LOW
PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM
STALLING OUT AND NOT MAKING PASSAGE DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND EXACT TIMING. BECAUSE OF THIS
DISAGREEMENT...WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS AND
LIMITED THE HIGHER POPS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECTED TEMPS DURING
THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. OCCASIONAL MVFR FROM
WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF A LINE KBNO-KSNT. SLIGHT CHANGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAGIC VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS NEAR 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12
KTS OR LESS...BUT AFTER 29/18Z INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN SE OREGON...WITH
FORECAST GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SW 10-
15 KTS...THEN BY 29/12Z SSW 35-50 KTS...THEN DECREASING AFTER 30/00Z
TO 20-25 KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
SUNDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS AND CALMER WINDS WITH PASSING CLOUDS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP/JC
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS66 KPDT 281734
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1034 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC, ROUGHLY ALONG 135 WEST
LONGITUDE. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ROUGHLY OVER THIS SAME REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN UNDER A
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A BAND OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW IS
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS, WITH SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES FROM THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE MORNING FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS PRECIP. A FEW SHOWERS
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY OVER WASHINGTON. DID MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
AFTERNOON PRECIP FORECASTS AS WELL. AIR QUALITY ACROSS THE AREA IS
MOSTLY GOOD TO MODERATE THIS MORNING WITH THE WORST AIR QUALITY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY. FIRES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS
ACTIVE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. DID
DIAL BACK THE SMOKE COVERAGE TO PATCHY FOR THIS MORNING, EXCEPT IN
THE JOHN DAY AND SENECA AREAS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT AIR
QUALITY ALERTS, THOUGH A FEW AREAS SHOULD SEE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF RAIN FROM THE CASCADE CREST EAST TO THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS
VALLEYS AND SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON WHILE FURTHER EAST WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. NEAR THE CASCADE CREST THERE WILL BE UP TO A
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN BUT PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AWAY
FROM THE CREST. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ON SUNDAY BUT MUCH LESS STRONG
THAN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND A
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE CASCADES WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA
REMAINS DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED
SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE CASCADES AND
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TUESDAY EVENING WILL SEE
BREEZY WINDS CROSSING THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL RETREAT NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA BY THURSDAY AND THE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AGAIN.
THURSDAY WILL SE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA FOR FAIR WEATHER. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS IS A MORE UNSTABLE SITUATION AND FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT AT THIS TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH THE TROUGH AND CLOUDY
SKIES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND 70S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL WARM A LITTLE TO THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S BUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE BACK IN THE UPPER 60S
AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO MIDDAY SATURDAY.
CEILINGS WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT 8K-12K FEET AGL BUT AGAIN
COULD SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. SMOKE
FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT ANY TAF SITE.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACH THE CASCADES AFTER
10Z. PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS AT ANY TAF SITE IS FAIRLY LOW DUE
TO RAIN SHADOWING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS BUT
KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN COULD HAVE GUSTS TO 20 KTS FROM 21Z-04Z. A
SIGNIFICANT WIND INCREASE IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY OF 20-30 KTS AND HIGHER GUST RESULTING IN BLOWING DUST AND
REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WINDS TO THE AREA. STRONGEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE
DISTRICT WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND MAY
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  86  61  79  54 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  87  67  79  60 /  10  10  10  10
PSC  87  62  82  52 /  10  10  10  10
YKM  79  57  72  50 /  20  10  20  30
HRI  87  63  80  53 /  10  10  10  10
ELN  82  57  74  51 /  20  20  30  40
RDM  84  55  74  44 /  10  10  20  10
LGD  89  51  83  47 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  87  58  80  46 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  85  63  78  60 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ510-511.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-
     507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-507-
     508.

WA...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WAZ027>029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-026>029-
     521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/91/94



000
FXUS66 KPDT 281734
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1034 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC, ROUGHLY ALONG 135 WEST
LONGITUDE. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ROUGHLY OVER THIS SAME REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN UNDER A
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A BAND OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW IS
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS, WITH SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES FROM THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE MORNING FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS PRECIP. A FEW SHOWERS
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY OVER WASHINGTON. DID MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
AFTERNOON PRECIP FORECASTS AS WELL. AIR QUALITY ACROSS THE AREA IS
MOSTLY GOOD TO MODERATE THIS MORNING WITH THE WORST AIR QUALITY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY. FIRES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS
ACTIVE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. DID
DIAL BACK THE SMOKE COVERAGE TO PATCHY FOR THIS MORNING, EXCEPT IN
THE JOHN DAY AND SENECA AREAS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT AIR
QUALITY ALERTS, THOUGH A FEW AREAS SHOULD SEE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF RAIN FROM THE CASCADE CREST EAST TO THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS
VALLEYS AND SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON WHILE FURTHER EAST WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. NEAR THE CASCADE CREST THERE WILL BE UP TO A
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN BUT PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AWAY
FROM THE CREST. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ON SUNDAY BUT MUCH LESS STRONG
THAN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND A
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE CASCADES WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA
REMAINS DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED
SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE CASCADES AND
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TUESDAY EVENING WILL SEE
BREEZY WINDS CROSSING THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL RETREAT NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA BY THURSDAY AND THE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AGAIN.
THURSDAY WILL SE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA FOR FAIR WEATHER. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS IS A MORE UNSTABLE SITUATION AND FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT AT THIS TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH THE TROUGH AND CLOUDY
SKIES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND 70S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL WARM A LITTLE TO THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S BUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE BACK IN THE UPPER 60S
AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TO MIDDAY SATURDAY.
CEILINGS WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT 8K-12K FEET AGL BUT AGAIN
COULD SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. SMOKE
FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT ANY TAF SITE.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACH THE CASCADES AFTER
10Z. PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS AT ANY TAF SITE IS FAIRLY LOW DUE
TO RAIN SHADOWING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS BUT
KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN COULD HAVE GUSTS TO 20 KTS FROM 21Z-04Z. A
SIGNIFICANT WIND INCREASE IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY OF 20-30 KTS AND HIGHER GUST RESULTING IN BLOWING DUST AND
REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WINDS TO THE AREA. STRONGEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE
DISTRICT WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND MAY
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  86  61  79  54 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  87  67  79  60 /  10  10  10  10
PSC  87  62  82  52 /  10  10  10  10
YKM  79  57  72  50 /  20  10  20  30
HRI  87  63  80  53 /  10  10  10  10
ELN  82  57  74  51 /  20  20  30  40
RDM  84  55  74  44 /  10  10  20  10
LGD  89  51  83  47 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  87  58  80  46 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  85  63  78  60 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ510-511.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-
     507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-507-
     508.

WA...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WAZ027>029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-026>029-
     521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/91/94




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281623
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
922 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE FORECAST STILL SEEMS ON TRACK AS A VERY SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS GAINING STRENGTH. THE FIRST WAVE OF
MOISTURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST HAS MOVED ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND WILL TEND TO LIFT
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM OF THE BUNCH IS A LOW THAT IS
DEVELOPING AND GAINING STRENGTH BETWEEN 130W AND 140W NEAR 40N THAT
WILL LIFT NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE
COAST AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH WIND ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP AND
POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EXPOSED AREAS OF THE COAST
RANGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLY NEAR THE COAST. THIS LOW
MOVES NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE
SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN COOLER AND UNSETTLED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF RAIN LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AS EXPECTED...THE FORECAST STILL SEEMS WELL ON TRACK
WITH OUR VERY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. AN INITIAL WAVE
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...WITH THE BEST AMOUNTS...
TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH...ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. THIS
WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING
OFF THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE STRONGEST SYSTEM OF THE EXPECTED SERIES IS A LOW ALREADY GAINING
STRENGTH OUT BETWEEN 130W AND 140W NEAR 40N. SATELLITE TRENDS OF A
STRONGLY DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD AND THE COLD AIR CUMULUS
NEAR ITS CENTER TESTIFY TO THE UNSEASONABLY DYNAMIC AND BAROCLINIC
CHARACTER OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS ENTRAINED MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT HAD BEEN OUT AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS SYSTEM NORTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONG SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY DEEPENING AS
LOW AS 990 MB OR PERHAPS A BIT LOWER. THE WINDS MAY START NEAR THE
CENTRAL COAST AROUND 12Z SATURDAY THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE GRADIENT FINALLY EASING BETWEEN 18Z
AND 21Z ON SATURDAY...THAT IS 11 AM TO 2 PM. ALSO LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A SURGE IN RAIN AS
WELL...BUT OFTEN THE RAIN IS NOT QUITE AS HEAVY AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT
WITH THESE WIND STORMS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS AND DECREASE BY AFTERNOON...
BUT THE NEXT FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 50N/135W WILL REACH THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AND SWING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A DECENT RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS PRETTY BREEZY
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO GALES AGAIN AT THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM
HAS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ONE OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOONS
IN IT.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FALL-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN.
ON MONDAY A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH MAY CLIP US WITH
SOME RAIN MAINLY ON THE COAST AND INLAND NORTH WHILE THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA JUST IN CASE THE MODELS DON`T QUITE HAVE THE
RIGHT TRACK FOR THIS SHORTWAVE SINCE IT`S A FEW DAYS OUT. MODELS ARE
HONING IN ON ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A BIT MORE
WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY MVFR
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
INLAND...CIGS GENERALLY VFR THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO
MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND FL025. INLAND TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT... RAIN
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS INLAND
AND IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS MORNING WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO LOW VFR LATER THIS MORNING AND
OCCASIONALLY DROP TO MVFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO 2500 FT AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
INCREASING. -MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. AS ANOTHER
LOW FORMING TO THE SW MOVES NE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KT ON THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS
AFTER 3AM SAT. THESE WINDS SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD SHORE. THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO 45 KT...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO SHORE. SEAS AROUND 4 TO 5 FT
TODAY WILL RAPIDLY BUILD AS THE WIND RAMPS UP LATE TONIGHT...WITH
SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT EARLY SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS START TO DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT STAY UP AROUND 20 TO 25 KT UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS STAY UP AROUND 10 TO 12 FT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AS
WELL...WHEN SEAS FALL TO 7 TO 9 FT. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING UP AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. -MCCOY/ROCKEY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-COAST RANGE OF
     NORTHWEST OREGON.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR WILLAPA HILLS.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281623
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
922 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE FORECAST STILL SEEMS ON TRACK AS A VERY SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS GAINING STRENGTH. THE FIRST WAVE OF
MOISTURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST HAS MOVED ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND WILL TEND TO LIFT
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM OF THE BUNCH IS A LOW THAT IS
DEVELOPING AND GAINING STRENGTH BETWEEN 130W AND 140W NEAR 40N THAT
WILL LIFT NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE
COAST AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH WIND ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP AND
POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EXPOSED AREAS OF THE COAST
RANGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLY NEAR THE COAST. THIS LOW
MOVES NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE
SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN COOLER AND UNSETTLED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF RAIN LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AS EXPECTED...THE FORECAST STILL SEEMS WELL ON TRACK
WITH OUR VERY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. AN INITIAL WAVE
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...WITH THE BEST AMOUNTS...
TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH...ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. THIS
WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING
OFF THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE STRONGEST SYSTEM OF THE EXPECTED SERIES IS A LOW ALREADY GAINING
STRENGTH OUT BETWEEN 130W AND 140W NEAR 40N. SATELLITE TRENDS OF A
STRONGLY DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD AND THE COLD AIR CUMULUS
NEAR ITS CENTER TESTIFY TO THE UNSEASONABLY DYNAMIC AND BAROCLINIC
CHARACTER OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS ENTRAINED MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT HAD BEEN OUT AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS SYSTEM NORTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONG SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY DEEPENING AS
LOW AS 990 MB OR PERHAPS A BIT LOWER. THE WINDS MAY START NEAR THE
CENTRAL COAST AROUND 12Z SATURDAY THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE GRADIENT FINALLY EASING BETWEEN 18Z
AND 21Z ON SATURDAY...THAT IS 11 AM TO 2 PM. ALSO LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A SURGE IN RAIN AS
WELL...BUT OFTEN THE RAIN IS NOT QUITE AS HEAVY AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT
WITH THESE WIND STORMS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS AND DECREASE BY AFTERNOON...
BUT THE NEXT FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 50N/135W WILL REACH THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AND SWING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A DECENT RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS PRETTY BREEZY
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO GALES AGAIN AT THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM
HAS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ONE OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOONS
IN IT.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FALL-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN.
ON MONDAY A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH MAY CLIP US WITH
SOME RAIN MAINLY ON THE COAST AND INLAND NORTH WHILE THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA JUST IN CASE THE MODELS DON`T QUITE HAVE THE
RIGHT TRACK FOR THIS SHORTWAVE SINCE IT`S A FEW DAYS OUT. MODELS ARE
HONING IN ON ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A BIT MORE
WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY MVFR
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
INLAND...CIGS GENERALLY VFR THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO
MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND FL025. INLAND TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT... RAIN
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS INLAND
AND IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS MORNING WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO LOW VFR LATER THIS MORNING AND
OCCASIONALLY DROP TO MVFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO 2500 FT AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
INCREASING. -MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. AS ANOTHER
LOW FORMING TO THE SW MOVES NE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KT ON THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS
AFTER 3AM SAT. THESE WINDS SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD SHORE. THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO 45 KT...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO SHORE. SEAS AROUND 4 TO 5 FT
TODAY WILL RAPIDLY BUILD AS THE WIND RAMPS UP LATE TONIGHT...WITH
SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT EARLY SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS START TO DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT STAY UP AROUND 20 TO 25 KT UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS STAY UP AROUND 10 TO 12 FT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AS
WELL...WHEN SEAS FALL TO 7 TO 9 FT. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING UP AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. -MCCOY/ROCKEY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-COAST RANGE OF
     NORTHWEST OREGON.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR WILLAPA HILLS.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281623
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
922 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE FORECAST STILL SEEMS ON TRACK AS A VERY SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS GAINING STRENGTH. THE FIRST WAVE OF
MOISTURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST HAS MOVED ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND WILL TEND TO LIFT
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM OF THE BUNCH IS A LOW THAT IS
DEVELOPING AND GAINING STRENGTH BETWEEN 130W AND 140W NEAR 40N THAT
WILL LIFT NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE
COAST AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH WIND ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP AND
POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EXPOSED AREAS OF THE COAST
RANGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLY NEAR THE COAST. THIS LOW
MOVES NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE
SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN COOLER AND UNSETTLED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF RAIN LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AS EXPECTED...THE FORECAST STILL SEEMS WELL ON TRACK
WITH OUR VERY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. AN INITIAL WAVE
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...WITH THE BEST AMOUNTS...
TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH...ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. THIS
WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING
OFF THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE STRONGEST SYSTEM OF THE EXPECTED SERIES IS A LOW ALREADY GAINING
STRENGTH OUT BETWEEN 130W AND 140W NEAR 40N. SATELLITE TRENDS OF A
STRONGLY DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD AND THE COLD AIR CUMULUS
NEAR ITS CENTER TESTIFY TO THE UNSEASONABLY DYNAMIC AND BAROCLINIC
CHARACTER OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS ENTRAINED MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT HAD BEEN OUT AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS SYSTEM NORTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONG SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY DEEPENING AS
LOW AS 990 MB OR PERHAPS A BIT LOWER. THE WINDS MAY START NEAR THE
CENTRAL COAST AROUND 12Z SATURDAY THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE GRADIENT FINALLY EASING BETWEEN 18Z
AND 21Z ON SATURDAY...THAT IS 11 AM TO 2 PM. ALSO LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A SURGE IN RAIN AS
WELL...BUT OFTEN THE RAIN IS NOT QUITE AS HEAVY AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT
WITH THESE WIND STORMS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS AND DECREASE BY AFTERNOON...
BUT THE NEXT FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 50N/135W WILL REACH THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AND SWING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A DECENT RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS PRETTY BREEZY
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO GALES AGAIN AT THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM
HAS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ONE OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOONS
IN IT.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FALL-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN.
ON MONDAY A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH MAY CLIP US WITH
SOME RAIN MAINLY ON THE COAST AND INLAND NORTH WHILE THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA JUST IN CASE THE MODELS DON`T QUITE HAVE THE
RIGHT TRACK FOR THIS SHORTWAVE SINCE IT`S A FEW DAYS OUT. MODELS ARE
HONING IN ON ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A BIT MORE
WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY MVFR
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
INLAND...CIGS GENERALLY VFR THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO
MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND FL025. INLAND TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT... RAIN
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS INLAND
AND IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS MORNING WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO LOW VFR LATER THIS MORNING AND
OCCASIONALLY DROP TO MVFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO 2500 FT AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
INCREASING. -MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. AS ANOTHER
LOW FORMING TO THE SW MOVES NE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KT ON THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS
AFTER 3AM SAT. THESE WINDS SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD SHORE. THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO 45 KT...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO SHORE. SEAS AROUND 4 TO 5 FT
TODAY WILL RAPIDLY BUILD AS THE WIND RAMPS UP LATE TONIGHT...WITH
SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT EARLY SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS START TO DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT STAY UP AROUND 20 TO 25 KT UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS STAY UP AROUND 10 TO 12 FT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AS
WELL...WHEN SEAS FALL TO 7 TO 9 FT. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING UP AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. -MCCOY/ROCKEY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-COAST RANGE OF
     NORTHWEST OREGON.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR WILLAPA HILLS.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281623
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
922 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE FORECAST STILL SEEMS ON TRACK AS A VERY SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS GAINING STRENGTH. THE FIRST WAVE OF
MOISTURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST HAS MOVED ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND WILL TEND TO LIFT
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM OF THE BUNCH IS A LOW THAT IS
DEVELOPING AND GAINING STRENGTH BETWEEN 130W AND 140W NEAR 40N THAT
WILL LIFT NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE
COAST AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HIGH WIND ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP AND
POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EXPOSED AREAS OF THE COAST
RANGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLY NEAR THE COAST. THIS LOW
MOVES NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST WITH ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE
SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN COOLER AND UNSETTLED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF RAIN LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AS EXPECTED...THE FORECAST STILL SEEMS WELL ON TRACK
WITH OUR VERY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. AN INITIAL WAVE
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...WITH THE BEST AMOUNTS...
TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH...ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. THIS
WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING
OFF THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE STRONGEST SYSTEM OF THE EXPECTED SERIES IS A LOW ALREADY GAINING
STRENGTH OUT BETWEEN 130W AND 140W NEAR 40N. SATELLITE TRENDS OF A
STRONGLY DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD AND THE COLD AIR CUMULUS
NEAR ITS CENTER TESTIFY TO THE UNSEASONABLY DYNAMIC AND BAROCLINIC
CHARACTER OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS ENTRAINED MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT HAD BEEN OUT AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS SYSTEM NORTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONG SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY DEEPENING AS
LOW AS 990 MB OR PERHAPS A BIT LOWER. THE WINDS MAY START NEAR THE
CENTRAL COAST AROUND 12Z SATURDAY THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE GRADIENT FINALLY EASING BETWEEN 18Z
AND 21Z ON SATURDAY...THAT IS 11 AM TO 2 PM. ALSO LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A SURGE IN RAIN AS
WELL...BUT OFTEN THE RAIN IS NOT QUITE AS HEAVY AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT
WITH THESE WIND STORMS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS AND DECREASE BY AFTERNOON...
BUT THE NEXT FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 50N/135W WILL REACH THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY AND SWING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A DECENT RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS PRETTY BREEZY
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO GALES AGAIN AT THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM
HAS SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ONE OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOONS
IN IT.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FALL-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN.
ON MONDAY A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH MAY CLIP US WITH
SOME RAIN MAINLY ON THE COAST AND INLAND NORTH WHILE THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA JUST IN CASE THE MODELS DON`T QUITE HAVE THE
RIGHT TRACK FOR THIS SHORTWAVE SINCE IT`S A FEW DAYS OUT. MODELS ARE
HONING IN ON ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A BIT MORE
WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY MVFR
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
INLAND...CIGS GENERALLY VFR THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO
MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND FL025. INLAND TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT... RAIN
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS INLAND
AND IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THIS MORNING WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO LOW VFR LATER THIS MORNING AND
OCCASIONALLY DROP TO MVFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO 2500 FT AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
INCREASING. -MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. AS ANOTHER
LOW FORMING TO THE SW MOVES NE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KT ON THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS
AFTER 3AM SAT. THESE WINDS SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD SHORE. THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO 45 KT...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO SHORE. SEAS AROUND 4 TO 5 FT
TODAY WILL RAPIDLY BUILD AS THE WIND RAMPS UP LATE TONIGHT...WITH
SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT EARLY SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS START TO DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT STAY UP AROUND 20 TO 25 KT UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. SEAS STAY UP AROUND 10 TO 12 FT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AS
WELL...WHEN SEAS FALL TO 7 TO 9 FT. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS STAYING UP AROUND 7 TO 9 FT THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. -MCCOY/ROCKEY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-COAST RANGE OF
     NORTHWEST OREGON.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR WILLAPA HILLS.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 281621
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
921 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC, ROUGHLY ALONG 135 WEST
LONGITUDE. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ROUGHLY OVER THIS SAME REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN UNDER A
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A BAND OF MOISTURE WITHIN THIS FLOW IS
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS, WITH SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES FROM THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE MORNING FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS PRECIP. A FEW SHOWERS
SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY OVER WASHINGTON. DID MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
AFTERNOON PRECIP FORECASTS AS WELL. AIR QUALITY ACROSS THE AREA IS
MOSTLY GOOD TO MODERATE THIS MORNING WITH THE WORST AIR QUALITY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY. FIRES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS
ACTIVE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. DID
DIAL BACK THE SMOKE COVERAGE TO PATCHY FOR THIS MORNING, EXCEPT IN
THE JOHN DAY AND SENECA AREAS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT AIR
QUALITY ALERTS, THOUGH A FEW AREAS SHOULD SEE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF RAIN FROM THE CASCADE CREST EAST TO THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS
VALLEYS AND SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON WHILE FURTHER EAST WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. NEAR THE CASCADE CREST THERE WILL BE UP TO A
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN BUT PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AWAY
FROM THE CREST. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ON SUNDAY BUT MUCH LESS STRONG
THAN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND A
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE CASCADES WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA
REMAINS DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED
SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE CASCADES AND
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TUESDAY EVENING WILL SEE
BREEZY WINDS CROSSING THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL RETREAT NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA BY THURSDAY AND THE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AGAIN.
THURSDAY WILL SE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA FOR FAIR WEATHER. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS IS A MORE UNSTABLE SITUATION AND FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT AT THIS TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH THE TROUGH AND CLOUDY
SKIES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND 70S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL WARM A LITTLE TO THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S BUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE BACK IN THE UPPER 60S
AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST
AT 8K-15K FEET AGL. SMOKE FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT ANY TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN AND
NEAR THE CASCADES AFTER 00Z. PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS AT ANY TAF
SITE IS FAIRLY LOW SO HAVE JUST MENTIONED VCSH AT KRDM, KBDN AND
KDLS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS BUT KDLS, KRDM AND
KBDN COULD HAVE GUSTS TO 20 KTS FROM 21Z-04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WINDS TO THE AREA. STRONGEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE
DISTRICT WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND MAY
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  86  61  79  54 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  87  67  79  60 /  10  10  10  10
PSC  87  62  82  52 /  10  10  10  10
YKM  79  57  72  50 /  20  10  20  30
HRI  87  63  80  53 /  10  10  10  10
ELN  82  57  74  51 /  20  20  30  40
RDM  84  55  74  44 /  10  10  20  10
LGD  89  51  83  47 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  87  58  80  46 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  85  63  78  60 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ510-511.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ044-
     507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-507-
     508.

WA...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     WAZ027>029.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-026>029-
     521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/91/94



000
FXUS66 KMFR 281558
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
858 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A STRENGTHENING LOW OFF
THE COAST OF OREGON BEGINNING LATER TODAY. WITH A DEEPENING LOW
THIS CLOSE TO SHORE, AND DESPITE THE EVENT OCCURRING THIS EARLY
IN THE SEASON, FEEL THAT HIGH WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE TRENDS OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. GIVEN THIS UNSEASONABLY STRONG SYSTEM,
AND WITH RECREATIONAL SEASON IN FULL SWING LEADING UP TO LABOR
DAY, WE ARE DEALING WITH A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SITUATION,
ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL CAMPGROUNDS AND THE DUNES AREA, AS WELL AS
FOR HUNTING AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. HAVE EXPANDED THE EAST
SIDE HIGH WIND WATCH, AND ISSUED A WATCH FOR THE COAST AS WELL
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...WILL UPDATE TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

WILL FOCUS EFFORTS TODAY ON THE SHORT TERM EVENT, MAINLY
CONCENTRATING ON WINDS AND PRECIPITATION. FOR MORE INFORMATION,
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...A VERY UNUSUALLY STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
OUR AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. OUR FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THE
COAST HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN SINCE APRIL DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY INSIDE OF 130W FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AS A "SOU`WESTER". THE MODELS SHOW ABOUT
10MB OF DEEPENING IN 12 HOURS WHICH IS EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FOR
THE END OF AUGUST IN OUR REGION. IN FACT...THIS FORECAST DEEP LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS OUTSIDE OF THE CLIMATOLOGY (SINCE 1979) FOR
NEARBY LOW PRESSURE IN OUR REGION.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE SUBTROPICS. THERE IS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT GREATER THAN 500
KG/M/S FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ALSO OUTSIDE OF THE CLIMATOLOGY (SINCE
1979) FOR THE END OF AUGUST IN OUR AREA. DESPITE THIS IMPRESSIVE
WATER TRANSPORT I HAVE LOWERED THE QPF A TAD NEAR THE COAST
BECAUSE OF THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND THE RELATIVE BRIEF
DURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION. ANY RAIN WILL BE WELCOME BUT WILL
ONLY PROVIDE SHORT-TERM DROUGHT RELIEF. HOWEVER...WILDFIRE SMOKE
IMPACTS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH DUE TO THE RAIN...COOLER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITIES...AND A MORE FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION. ROAD CONDITIONS MAY BE QUITE SLICK DUE TO THE OIL
BUILDUP ON THE ROADS AND THE FIRST WIDESPREAD RAIN.

WINDS ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BE VERY UNUSUAL. THE WINDS
AT 700 MB (10,000 FT)ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTSIDE ARE OUTSIDE OF
THE CLIMATOLOGY (SINCE 1979) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL PEAK
12Z SATURDAY CLOSE TO 65 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
THE SUMMER LAKE AREA AROUND HIGHWAY 31 AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
TYPICALLY SURFACE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THERE. WINDS ELSEWHERE ON
THE EASTSIDE WILL BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AT THE COAST BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT
WILL REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE DROUGHT HAS WEAKENED SOME TREES
AND WIND DAMAGE IS MORE LIKELY WITH THE FIRST STRONG WIND OF THE
SEASON...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.
CAPE BLANCO COULD SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEED 60 MPH.

BEHIND THIS STORM THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL ANCHOR A TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A NUMBER OF WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION BUT MAINLY FARTHER NORTH. IT WILL BE A VERY WET UPCOMING
WEAK FOR THE SEATTLE REGION WHILE WE MAY SEE LITTLE RAIN BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE
COOLER ENDING TO SUMMER (JUNE-JULY-AUGUST) WE COULD STILL END UP
WITH THE WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD IN MEDFORD. IF THE LAST FEW
DAYS OF THE MONTH ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL THEN WE COULD DROP TO THE
2ND OR 3RD WARMEST SUMMER BEHIND 2014 AND 2013.
SANDLER

&&

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT
ARES OF MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR VIS THROUGH
THE MORNING...BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
FOR AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE AND HAZE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
SOUTH WINDS WILL ALONG DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND EAST OF THE CASCADES.

&&

MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015...LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THEN A SURFACE LOW WILL NEAR THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AROUND
NOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS
ALL OF OUR WATERS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GALES AND VERY STEEP WIND
DRIVEN SEAS BY EARLY SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF GOLD
BEACH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT AREAS
OF GALES AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF GOLD BEACH.  THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING MODERATE RAIN WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOW
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. MULTIPLE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH  INCREASED SNEAKER
WAVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY, BUT
MODERATE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 500 AM PDT FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015...A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST THIS TODAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
WETTING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD. ON THE
EAST SIDE, LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. THE BIGGER CONCERN
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL BE THE DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THAT WE`LL GET THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. OVERALL, EXPECT HUMIDITIES TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THOUGH.

TONIGHT A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
OFFSHORE  AND TRACK NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, AND
THE SUMMER LAKE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
INCREASING (ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS), A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH IS A POTENTIAL HIGH WIND MAKER ON THE EAST SIDE. WE HAVE
INCREASED WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SUMMER LAKE
AREA WHERE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE ARE
SPECIFIC CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND
THE PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE, HIGH
INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE NOT A
HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT. ALSO, SNAGS,
BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN WEAKENED OVER THE
SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND, THE ADDED WEIGHT
OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS SHOULD REMAIN
VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON OR
AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS. -WRIGHT/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ030-031.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

BPN/CC/RES



000
FXUS66 KMFR 281558
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
858 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A STRENGTHENING LOW OFF
THE COAST OF OREGON BEGINNING LATER TODAY. WITH A DEEPENING LOW
THIS CLOSE TO SHORE, AND DESPITE THE EVENT OCCURRING THIS EARLY
IN THE SEASON, FEEL THAT HIGH WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE TRENDS OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. GIVEN THIS UNSEASONABLY STRONG SYSTEM,
AND WITH RECREATIONAL SEASON IN FULL SWING LEADING UP TO LABOR
DAY, WE ARE DEALING WITH A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SITUATION,
ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL CAMPGROUNDS AND THE DUNES AREA, AS WELL AS
FOR HUNTING AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. HAVE EXPANDED THE EAST
SIDE HIGH WIND WATCH, AND ISSUED A WATCH FOR THE COAST AS WELL
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...WILL UPDATE TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

WILL FOCUS EFFORTS TODAY ON THE SHORT TERM EVENT, MAINLY
CONCENTRATING ON WINDS AND PRECIPITATION. FOR MORE INFORMATION,
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...A VERY UNUSUALLY STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
OUR AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. OUR FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THE
COAST HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN SINCE APRIL DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY INSIDE OF 130W FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AS A "SOU`WESTER". THE MODELS SHOW ABOUT
10MB OF DEEPENING IN 12 HOURS WHICH IS EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FOR
THE END OF AUGUST IN OUR REGION. IN FACT...THIS FORECAST DEEP LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS OUTSIDE OF THE CLIMATOLOGY (SINCE 1979) FOR
NEARBY LOW PRESSURE IN OUR REGION.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE SUBTROPICS. THERE IS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT GREATER THAN 500
KG/M/S FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ALSO OUTSIDE OF THE CLIMATOLOGY (SINCE
1979) FOR THE END OF AUGUST IN OUR AREA. DESPITE THIS IMPRESSIVE
WATER TRANSPORT I HAVE LOWERED THE QPF A TAD NEAR THE COAST
BECAUSE OF THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND THE RELATIVE BRIEF
DURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION. ANY RAIN WILL BE WELCOME BUT WILL
ONLY PROVIDE SHORT-TERM DROUGHT RELIEF. HOWEVER...WILDFIRE SMOKE
IMPACTS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH DUE TO THE RAIN...COOLER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITIES...AND A MORE FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION. ROAD CONDITIONS MAY BE QUITE SLICK DUE TO THE OIL
BUILDUP ON THE ROADS AND THE FIRST WIDESPREAD RAIN.

WINDS ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BE VERY UNUSUAL. THE WINDS
AT 700 MB (10,000 FT)ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTSIDE ARE OUTSIDE OF
THE CLIMATOLOGY (SINCE 1979) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL PEAK
12Z SATURDAY CLOSE TO 65 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
THE SUMMER LAKE AREA AROUND HIGHWAY 31 AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
TYPICALLY SURFACE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THERE. WINDS ELSEWHERE ON
THE EASTSIDE WILL BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AT THE COAST BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT
WILL REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE DROUGHT HAS WEAKENED SOME TREES
AND WIND DAMAGE IS MORE LIKELY WITH THE FIRST STRONG WIND OF THE
SEASON...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS.
CAPE BLANCO COULD SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEED 60 MPH.

BEHIND THIS STORM THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL ANCHOR A TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A NUMBER OF WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION BUT MAINLY FARTHER NORTH. IT WILL BE A VERY WET UPCOMING
WEAK FOR THE SEATTLE REGION WHILE WE MAY SEE LITTLE RAIN BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE
COOLER ENDING TO SUMMER (JUNE-JULY-AUGUST) WE COULD STILL END UP
WITH THE WARMEST SUMMER ON RECORD IN MEDFORD. IF THE LAST FEW
DAYS OF THE MONTH ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL THEN WE COULD DROP TO THE
2ND OR 3RD WARMEST SUMMER BEHIND 2014 AND 2013.
SANDLER

&&

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT
ARES OF MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR VIS THROUGH
THE MORNING...BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
FOR AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE AND HAZE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
SOUTH WINDS WILL ALONG DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND EAST OF THE CASCADES.

&&

MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015...LIGHT WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THEN A SURFACE LOW WILL NEAR THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AROUND
NOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS
ALL OF OUR WATERS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GALES AND VERY STEEP WIND
DRIVEN SEAS BY EARLY SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF GOLD
BEACH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT AREAS
OF GALES AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF GOLD BEACH.  THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING MODERATE RAIN WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOW
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. MULTIPLE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH  INCREASED SNEAKER
WAVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY, BUT
MODERATE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 500 AM PDT FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015...A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST THIS TODAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
WETTING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD. ON THE
EAST SIDE, LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. THE BIGGER CONCERN
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL BE THE DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THAT WE`LL GET THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. OVERALL, EXPECT HUMIDITIES TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THOUGH.

TONIGHT A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
OFFSHORE  AND TRACK NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, AND
THE SUMMER LAKE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
INCREASING (ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS), A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH IS A POTENTIAL HIGH WIND MAKER ON THE EAST SIDE. WE HAVE
INCREASED WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SUMMER LAKE
AREA WHERE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE ARE
SPECIFIC CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND
THE PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE, HIGH
INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE NOT A
HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT. ALSO, SNAGS,
BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN WEAKENED OVER THE
SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND, THE ADDED WEIGHT
OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS SHOULD REMAIN
VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON OR
AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS. -WRIGHT/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ030-031.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

BPN/CC/RES




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