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000
FXUS66 KPQR 301006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF
THE  WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM IDAHO TO ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE B.C. COAST. THE
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE OREGON CASCADES WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OCCUR OVER.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
INSTABILITY BELOW 500 MB IS LOW. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS VORT
MAX CLIPS THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCES FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT NORTH AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. NAM VERTICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE INLINE WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. THE HIGH OREGON
CASCADES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  SIMILAR THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES RETURN FRI AFTERNOON. WEAGLE/MH

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG REMAINING ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH IFR
AND LOCAL LIFR PERSISTING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE PUSHING UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA...WITH
CIGS AROUND 1000 FT MAKING IT TO KKLS. EXPECT THIS PUSH TO
CONTINUE TOWARDS THE PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING AT KSPB BUT STILL LESS CONFIDENCE THAT PUSH WILL MAKE IT
TO KPDX OR KTTD. ANY STRATUS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z
TODAY...WITH THE COASTAL AREAS IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRATUS MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z NEAR KAST. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. LOW
MVFR TO HIGH IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE W AFT
12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. ANY CIGS THAT DO FORM
SHOULD CLEAR BY 16Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRES
IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE NE PAC. MEANWHILE...THE THERMAL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER N CALIFORNIA AND WILL RISE SLIGHTLY N IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
A BIT OVER THE OREGON WATERS WITH GUSTIER WINDS...TO AROUND 25 KT
AT TIMES. ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER WATERS... WITH STRONGEST WINDS MOSTLY S
OF TILLAMOOK.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY BE A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL...AND INDISTINGUISHABLE AT TIMES...SO CONTINUED TO
COMBINE THE SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN
STEEP AND IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK...THROUGH COULD
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 7 FT AT TIMES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS
WILL BE STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST...DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY S OF TILLAMOOK AND
NEAR SHORE. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF
THE  WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM IDAHO TO ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE B.C. COAST. THE
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE OREGON CASCADES WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OCCUR OVER.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
INSTABILITY BELOW 500 MB IS LOW. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS VORT
MAX CLIPS THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCES FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT NORTH AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. NAM VERTICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE INLINE WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. THE HIGH OREGON
CASCADES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  SIMILAR THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES RETURN FRI AFTERNOON. WEAGLE/MH

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG REMAINING ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH IFR
AND LOCAL LIFR PERSISTING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE PUSHING UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA...WITH
CIGS AROUND 1000 FT MAKING IT TO KKLS. EXPECT THIS PUSH TO
CONTINUE TOWARDS THE PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING AT KSPB BUT STILL LESS CONFIDENCE THAT PUSH WILL MAKE IT
TO KPDX OR KTTD. ANY STRATUS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z
TODAY...WITH THE COASTAL AREAS IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRATUS MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z NEAR KAST. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. LOW
MVFR TO HIGH IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE W AFT
12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. ANY CIGS THAT DO FORM
SHOULD CLEAR BY 16Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRES
IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE NE PAC. MEANWHILE...THE THERMAL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER N CALIFORNIA AND WILL RISE SLIGHTLY N IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
A BIT OVER THE OREGON WATERS WITH GUSTIER WINDS...TO AROUND 25 KT
AT TIMES. ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER WATERS... WITH STRONGEST WINDS MOSTLY S
OF TILLAMOOK.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY BE A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL...AND INDISTINGUISHABLE AT TIMES...SO CONTINUED TO
COMBINE THE SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN
STEEP AND IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK...THROUGH COULD
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 7 FT AT TIMES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS
WILL BE STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST...DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY S OF TILLAMOOK AND
NEAR SHORE. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF
THE  WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM IDAHO TO ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE B.C. COAST. THE
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE OREGON CASCADES WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OCCUR OVER.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
INSTABILITY BELOW 500 MB IS LOW. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS VORT
MAX CLIPS THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCES FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT NORTH AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. NAM VERTICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE INLINE WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. THE HIGH OREGON
CASCADES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  SIMILAR THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES RETURN FRI AFTERNOON. WEAGLE/MH

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG REMAINING ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH IFR
AND LOCAL LIFR PERSISTING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE PUSHING UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA...WITH
CIGS AROUND 1000 FT MAKING IT TO KKLS. EXPECT THIS PUSH TO
CONTINUE TOWARDS THE PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING AT KSPB BUT STILL LESS CONFIDENCE THAT PUSH WILL MAKE IT
TO KPDX OR KTTD. ANY STRATUS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z
TODAY...WITH THE COASTAL AREAS IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRATUS MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z NEAR KAST. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. LOW
MVFR TO HIGH IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE W AFT
12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. ANY CIGS THAT DO FORM
SHOULD CLEAR BY 16Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRES
IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE NE PAC. MEANWHILE...THE THERMAL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER N CALIFORNIA AND WILL RISE SLIGHTLY N IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
A BIT OVER THE OREGON WATERS WITH GUSTIER WINDS...TO AROUND 25 KT
AT TIMES. ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER WATERS... WITH STRONGEST WINDS MOSTLY S
OF TILLAMOOK.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY BE A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL...AND INDISTINGUISHABLE AT TIMES...SO CONTINUED TO
COMBINE THE SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN
STEEP AND IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK...THROUGH COULD
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 7 FT AT TIMES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS
WILL BE STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST...DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY S OF TILLAMOOK AND
NEAR SHORE. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF
THE  WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM IDAHO TO ARIZONA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE B.C. COAST. THE
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AS A RESULT
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE COASTAL
AREAS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE OREGON CASCADES WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OCCUR OVER.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
INSTABILITY BELOW 500 MB IS LOW. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS VORT
MAX CLIPS THE AREA.  BETTER CHANCES FOR THU/THU NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT NORTH AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. NAM VERTICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE INLINE WITH OBSERVATIONS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. THE HIGH OREGON
CASCADES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF
THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT.
FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  SIMILAR THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES RETURN FRI AFTERNOON. WEAGLE/MH

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
-MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG REMAINING ALONG THE COASTLINE WITH IFR
AND LOCAL LIFR PERSISTING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE PUSHING UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA...WITH
CIGS AROUND 1000 FT MAKING IT TO KKLS. EXPECT THIS PUSH TO
CONTINUE TOWARDS THE PORTLAND METRO TERMINALS...WITH CIGS LIKELY
FORMING AT KSPB BUT STILL LESS CONFIDENCE THAT PUSH WILL MAKE IT
TO KPDX OR KTTD. ANY STRATUS INLAND SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z
TODAY...WITH THE COASTAL AREAS IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRATUS MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z NEAR KAST. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. LOW
MVFR TO HIGH IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE W AFT
12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. ANY CIGS THAT DO FORM
SHOULD CLEAR BY 16Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRES
IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE NE PAC. MEANWHILE...THE THERMAL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER N CALIFORNIA AND WILL RISE SLIGHTLY N IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
A BIT OVER THE OREGON WATERS WITH GUSTIER WINDS...TO AROUND 25 KT
AT TIMES. ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER WATERS... WITH STRONGEST WINDS MOSTLY S
OF TILLAMOOK.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY BE A MIXTURE OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL...AND INDISTINGUISHABLE AT TIMES...SO CONTINUED TO
COMBINE THE SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN
STEEP AND IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK...THROUGH COULD
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 7 FT AT TIMES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS
WILL BE STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST...DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY S OF TILLAMOOK AND
NEAR SHORE. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPDT 300943
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SET OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME REMAINING CLOUDINESS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. BASED ON MOVEMENT SPEED MOST OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES
THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN AS INSTABILITY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY WARM AND SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH
100-105 IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE AREA. MONSOON MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY APPEARS THE ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN
BE MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
ON FRIDAY MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THIS COVERED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT HOWEVER INCREASED
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MAY CUT DOWN ON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. 94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AND RIDE OVER THE RIDGE. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
A WAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY
ANOTHER WAVE WILL FORM OFFSHORE AND MOVE INTO EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA.
MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN IDAHO AND MONTANA.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. TUESDAY BOTH 0Z
MODELS INDICATE DRY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS TO
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM BLOWOFF OF PREVIOUS
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.  EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT MOVES ON. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
EXPECT A REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND
HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN AT KBDN AND KRDM. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS
MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND GUST
UP TO 30 KTS AFTER 18Z WHEN THE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN. KRDM AND KBDN
MAY HAVE WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING NEARBY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WEBER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 104  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 104  71  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
PSC 104  68 101  70 /   0   0  10  10
YKM 103  66  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
HRI 104  68 100  69 /   0   0  10  10
ELN 101  61  97  62 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  98  60  93  60 /  20  20  30  30
LGD  97  63  92  62 /  30  20  30  30
GCD  96  63  92  63 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  98  66  97  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING ORZ049-050-502-503-505>507-509>511.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ044-507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING WAZ030.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ027-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/76/76





000
FXUS66 KPDT 300943
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SET OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME REMAINING CLOUDINESS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. BASED ON MOVEMENT SPEED MOST OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES
THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN AS INSTABILITY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY WARM AND SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH
100-105 IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE AREA. MONSOON MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY APPEARS THE ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN
BE MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
ON FRIDAY MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THIS COVERED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT HOWEVER INCREASED
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MAY CUT DOWN ON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. 94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AND RIDE OVER THE RIDGE. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
A WAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY
ANOTHER WAVE WILL FORM OFFSHORE AND MOVE INTO EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA.
MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN IDAHO AND MONTANA.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. TUESDAY BOTH 0Z
MODELS INDICATE DRY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS TO
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM BLOWOFF OF PREVIOUS
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.  EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT MOVES ON. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
EXPECT A REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND
HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN AT KBDN AND KRDM. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS
MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND GUST
UP TO 30 KTS AFTER 18Z WHEN THE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN. KRDM AND KBDN
MAY HAVE WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING NEARBY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WEBER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 104  68  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 104  71  99  73 /   0  10  10  10
PSC 104  68 101  70 /   0   0  10  10
YKM 103  66  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
HRI 104  68 100  69 /   0   0  10  10
ELN 101  61  97  62 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  98  60  93  60 /  20  20  30  30
LGD  97  63  92  62 /  30  20  30  30
GCD  96  63  92  63 /  30  30  30  30
DLS  98  66  97  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING ORZ049-050-502-503-505>507-509>511.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ044-507.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING WAZ030.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ027-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/76/76





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 300929
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
229 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE POTENTIALLY HIGH
IMPACT DAYS FOR FIRE WEATHER AND SEVERE WEATHER, AND THUS ALL OF THE
FOCUS THIS MORNING HAS BEEN ON THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ON TUESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS FORMED IN ROUGHLY THE EXPECTED LOCATIONS
AND APPROXIMATELY RIGHT ON TIME. STORMS BECAME MOST INTENSE AND THE
MOST LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED IN THE EARLY EVENING FROM NEAR MT.
ASHLAND UP THROUGH THE CASCADES. STORMS ACTUALLY APPROACHED SEVERE
LEVELS AT TIMES WITH AT LEAST ONE MID LEVEL MESOCYCLONE OBSERVED ON
RADAR (ALONG HIGHWAY 97 NEAR CHEMULT) AND A COUPLE OF OVERSHOOTING
TOPS SEEN IN SATELLITE DATA. MOST OF OUR AREA WAS VERY UNSTABLE, BUT
THE WEST SIDE WAS LARGELY CAPPED AT AROUND 700 MB. THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT MADE THE ASTUTE OBSERVATION THAT STORMS FORMED WITHIN THE AREA
OF CONCENTRATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE, THAT IS WHERE 700-500MB
HUMIDITIES EXCEEDED 60%. THE WEST SIDE WAS CAPPED BELOW MUCH OF THIS
MOISTURE, AND NOT SURPRISINGLY, STORMS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT.

THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE TODAY. WE SHOULD HAVE EVERY BIT
AS MUCH INSTABILITY TODAY, BUT THE MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD SURGE IN
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVING AS FAR
WEST AS GRANTS PASS. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A DECENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AND STEERING FLOW BACKS A
BIT MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST
NOW, WHICH SHOULDN`T DO MUCH AT THIS TIME OF DAY, BUT MORE ENERGY IS
NOTED MOVING NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. IN FACT, THERE WERE
JUST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INLAND FROM THE BAY AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME OF THAT ENERGY, WHICH SEEMS TO BE WHAT THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP ON. ALL OF THIS MEANS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST AS MUCH
ACTIVITY TODAY AS YESTERDAY, AND WE PROBABLY WILL SEE STORMS EVEN ON
THE WEST SIDE. POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO THIS THINKING AND THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE NUDGED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ROGUE VALLEY TODAY.

AS TO WHETHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE TODAY...THERE IS LITTLE
REASON TO BELIEVE WE CAN`T GET A SEVERE STORM OR TWO GIVEN WHAT WE
SAW ON TUESDAY. DON`T EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS, BUT IN
ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THAT WILL
BE KLAMATH COUNTY AGAIN.

IT REMAINS PLENTY UNSTABLE ON THURSDAY AS WELL. WHILE THERE WILL BE
A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE, THERE IS STILL A DECENT TRIGGER IN THE FORM
OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE. THUS, COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF STORMS ON
THURSDAY LOOKS ROUGHLY THE SAME AS WEDNESDAY, AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED
UP AND FURTHER WEST THURSDAY AS WELL. WE WILL ALSO BE EXPANDING THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY TO INCLUDE SIMILAR AREAS TO WHAT THE
RED FLAG WARNING COVERS TODAY.

THINGS REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS A NOTICEABLE SHIFT
INLAND WITH ACTIVITY, AND THUS THUNDERSTORMS OUGHT TO BE CONFINED TO
EAST SIDE AREAS ON FRIDAY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND FRIDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 30/06Z TAFS...

ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF VFR NEAR
PORT ORFORD/GOLD BEACH...EXPECT LIFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME
AREAS WILL CLEAR TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGHER TERRAIN JUST INLAND WILL ALSO BE
OBSCURED. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
SISKIYOUS AND CASCADES EASTWARD. SOUTH FLOW MAY BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOME OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS TOO, SO
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN THE KMFR TAF. STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS, HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT 30 JULY 2014...

THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH SOME SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A THERMAL
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN STEEP WIND
WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS FROM CAPE
BLANCO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.  WINDS MAY INCREASE TO
GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON THE GALE AND VERY STEEP SEAS
POTENTIAL...AS MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW RUNS
POINTING TOWARDS LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-620>625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-620>625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$







000
FXUS66 KMFR 300929
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
229 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE POTENTIALLY HIGH
IMPACT DAYS FOR FIRE WEATHER AND SEVERE WEATHER, AND THUS ALL OF THE
FOCUS THIS MORNING HAS BEEN ON THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ON TUESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS FORMED IN ROUGHLY THE EXPECTED LOCATIONS
AND APPROXIMATELY RIGHT ON TIME. STORMS BECAME MOST INTENSE AND THE
MOST LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED IN THE EARLY EVENING FROM NEAR MT.
ASHLAND UP THROUGH THE CASCADES. STORMS ACTUALLY APPROACHED SEVERE
LEVELS AT TIMES WITH AT LEAST ONE MID LEVEL MESOCYCLONE OBSERVED ON
RADAR (ALONG HIGHWAY 97 NEAR CHEMULT) AND A COUPLE OF OVERSHOOTING
TOPS SEEN IN SATELLITE DATA. MOST OF OUR AREA WAS VERY UNSTABLE, BUT
THE WEST SIDE WAS LARGELY CAPPED AT AROUND 700 MB. THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT MADE THE ASTUTE OBSERVATION THAT STORMS FORMED WITHIN THE AREA
OF CONCENTRATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE, THAT IS WHERE 700-500MB
HUMIDITIES EXCEEDED 60%. THE WEST SIDE WAS CAPPED BELOW MUCH OF THIS
MOISTURE, AND NOT SURPRISINGLY, STORMS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT.

THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE TODAY. WE SHOULD HAVE EVERY BIT
AS MUCH INSTABILITY TODAY, BUT THE MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD SURGE IN
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVING AS FAR
WEST AS GRANTS PASS. IN ADDITION, BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A DECENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AND STEERING FLOW BACKS A
BIT MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST
NOW, WHICH SHOULDN`T DO MUCH AT THIS TIME OF DAY, BUT MORE ENERGY IS
NOTED MOVING NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. IN FACT, THERE WERE
JUST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INLAND FROM THE BAY AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME OF THAT ENERGY, WHICH SEEMS TO BE WHAT THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP ON. ALL OF THIS MEANS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST AS MUCH
ACTIVITY TODAY AS YESTERDAY, AND WE PROBABLY WILL SEE STORMS EVEN ON
THE WEST SIDE. POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO THIS THINKING AND THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE NUDGED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ROGUE VALLEY TODAY.

AS TO WHETHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE TODAY...THERE IS LITTLE
REASON TO BELIEVE WE CAN`T GET A SEVERE STORM OR TWO GIVEN WHAT WE
SAW ON TUESDAY. DON`T EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS, BUT IN
ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THAT WILL
BE KLAMATH COUNTY AGAIN.

IT REMAINS PLENTY UNSTABLE ON THURSDAY AS WELL. WHILE THERE WILL BE
A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE, THERE IS STILL A DECENT TRIGGER IN THE FORM
OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE. THUS, COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF STORMS ON
THURSDAY LOOKS ROUGHLY THE SAME AS WEDNESDAY, AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED
UP AND FURTHER WEST THURSDAY AS WELL. WE WILL ALSO BE EXPANDING THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY TO INCLUDE SIMILAR AREAS TO WHAT THE
RED FLAG WARNING COVERS TODAY.

THINGS REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS A NOTICEABLE SHIFT
INLAND WITH ACTIVITY, AND THUS THUNDERSTORMS OUGHT TO BE CONFINED TO
EAST SIDE AREAS ON FRIDAY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND FRIDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 30/06Z TAFS...

ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF VFR NEAR
PORT ORFORD/GOLD BEACH...EXPECT LIFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME
AREAS WILL CLEAR TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGHER TERRAIN JUST INLAND WILL ALSO BE
OBSCURED. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
SISKIYOUS AND CASCADES EASTWARD. SOUTH FLOW MAY BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOME OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS TOO, SO
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN THE KMFR TAF. STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS, HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT 30 JULY 2014...

THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH SOME SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A THERMAL
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN STEEP WIND
WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS FROM CAPE
BLANCO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.  WINDS MAY INCREASE TO
GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON THE GALE AND VERY STEEP SEAS
POTENTIAL...AS MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW RUNS
POINTING TOWARDS LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-620>625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-620>625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 300912
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
312 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY. AS
OF 3 AM A FEW RADAR ECHOES OVER WEST BAKER COUNTY WERE CREEPING
NORTHWARD AT 5-10 MPH...WHILE CLOUD TOPS WERE WARMING ACROSS
IDAHO. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 100 WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVER THE CWFA.
STORMS WILL BE PULSE TYPE WITH MOST STORMS MUCH LIKE THE ONE THAT
AFFECTED JEROME WITH 40 MPH WINDS AND 0.02 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME VERY STRONG CELLS MAY SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL AGAIN AS WAS REPORTED IN ELMORE COUNTY LATE TUESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FORCING REMAINS MINIMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH
ALOFT DUE TO AN H7-H5 RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NEAR THE ORE- IDA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS TO
PROVIDE BROAD LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WHERE SCATTERED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIES OVER IDAHO.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE IN
THE RECENT EXTENDED MODELS IS WHERE WILL THE PRECIPITATION BE.
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AS THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS STILL
BRINING MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT
EACH NEW MODEL RUN PLACES THE MOISTURE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECIDED TO
TREND TOWARD A BROAD BRUSH OF POPS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. LATEST MODELS SHOW THE FIRST WAVE MOVING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST ONE
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. LATEST MODELS SHOWING A BREAK DOWN OF THE STAGNANT PATTERN
WITH A SHIFT TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE ON
TUESDAY THAT WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN THE ZONAL FLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER ANY TAF SITES.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 300912
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
312 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY. AS
OF 3 AM A FEW RADAR ECHOES OVER WEST BAKER COUNTY WERE CREEPING
NORTHWARD AT 5-10 MPH...WHILE CLOUD TOPS WERE WARMING ACROSS
IDAHO. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 100 WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVER THE CWFA.
STORMS WILL BE PULSE TYPE WITH MOST STORMS MUCH LIKE THE ONE THAT
AFFECTED JEROME WITH 40 MPH WINDS AND 0.02 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME VERY STRONG CELLS MAY SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL AGAIN AS WAS REPORTED IN ELMORE COUNTY LATE TUESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FORCING REMAINS MINIMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH
ALOFT DUE TO AN H7-H5 RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NEAR THE ORE- IDA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS TO
PROVIDE BROAD LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WHERE SCATTERED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIES OVER IDAHO.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE IN
THE RECENT EXTENDED MODELS IS WHERE WILL THE PRECIPITATION BE.
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AS THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS STILL
BRINING MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT
EACH NEW MODEL RUN PLACES THE MOISTURE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECIDED TO
TREND TOWARD A BROAD BRUSH OF POPS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. LATEST MODELS SHOW THE FIRST WAVE MOVING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST ONE
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. LATEST MODELS SHOWING A BREAK DOWN OF THE STAGNANT PATTERN
WITH A SHIFT TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE ON
TUESDAY THAT WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN THE ZONAL FLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER ANY TAF SITES.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 300912
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
312 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY. AS
OF 3 AM A FEW RADAR ECHOES OVER WEST BAKER COUNTY WERE CREEPING
NORTHWARD AT 5-10 MPH...WHILE CLOUD TOPS WERE WARMING ACROSS
IDAHO. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 100 WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVER THE CWFA.
STORMS WILL BE PULSE TYPE WITH MOST STORMS MUCH LIKE THE ONE THAT
AFFECTED JEROME WITH 40 MPH WINDS AND 0.02 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME VERY STRONG CELLS MAY SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL AGAIN AS WAS REPORTED IN ELMORE COUNTY LATE TUESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FORCING REMAINS MINIMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH
ALOFT DUE TO AN H7-H5 RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NEAR THE ORE- IDA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS TO
PROVIDE BROAD LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WHERE SCATTERED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIES OVER IDAHO.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE IN
THE RECENT EXTENDED MODELS IS WHERE WILL THE PRECIPITATION BE.
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AS THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS STILL
BRINING MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT
EACH NEW MODEL RUN PLACES THE MOISTURE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECIDED TO
TREND TOWARD A BROAD BRUSH OF POPS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. LATEST MODELS SHOW THE FIRST WAVE MOVING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST ONE
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. LATEST MODELS SHOWING A BREAK DOWN OF THE STAGNANT PATTERN
WITH A SHIFT TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE ON
TUESDAY THAT WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN THE ZONAL FLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER ANY TAF SITES.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 300912
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
312 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY. AS
OF 3 AM A FEW RADAR ECHOES OVER WEST BAKER COUNTY WERE CREEPING
NORTHWARD AT 5-10 MPH...WHILE CLOUD TOPS WERE WARMING ACROSS
IDAHO. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 100 WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVER THE CWFA.
STORMS WILL BE PULSE TYPE WITH MOST STORMS MUCH LIKE THE ONE THAT
AFFECTED JEROME WITH 40 MPH WINDS AND 0.02 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME VERY STRONG CELLS MAY SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL AGAIN AS WAS REPORTED IN ELMORE COUNTY LATE TUESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FORCING REMAINS MINIMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH
ALOFT DUE TO AN H7-H5 RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NEAR THE ORE- IDA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS TO
PROVIDE BROAD LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WHERE SCATTERED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIES OVER IDAHO.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE IN
THE RECENT EXTENDED MODELS IS WHERE WILL THE PRECIPITATION BE.
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME AS THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS STILL
BRINING MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT
EACH NEW MODEL RUN PLACES THE MOISTURE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECIDED TO
TREND TOWARD A BROAD BRUSH OF POPS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. LATEST MODELS SHOW THE FIRST WAVE MOVING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE RIGHT ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST ONE
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. LATEST MODELS SHOWING A BREAK DOWN OF THE STAGNANT PATTERN
WITH A SHIFT TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE ON
TUESDAY THAT WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN THE ZONAL FLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER ANY TAF SITES.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 300527 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1027 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HELPED TO
IGNITE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 11 PM THIS EVENING. MORE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY ISSUE SOME FIRE WEATHER WATCHES LATER
THIS EVENING FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BASED ON THE 00 UTC MODEL
RUNS IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. 78

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM BLOWOFF OF PREVIOUS
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.  EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT MOVES ON. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
EXPECT A REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND
HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN AT KBDN AND KRDM. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS
MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND GUST
UP TO 30 KTS AFTER 18Z WHEN THE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN. KRDM AND KBDN
MAY HAVE WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING NEARBY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  69  99  67  98 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  70  99  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  69 102  68 101 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  64 100  64 100 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  67 101  67 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  59  99  59  98 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  60  94  57  93 /  30  20  20  20
LGD  64  94  62  93 /  20  20  20  20
GCD  67  93  63  91 /  30  30  30  20
DLS  64  97  65  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78











000
FXUS66 KPDT 300527 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1027 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HELPED TO
IGNITE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 11 PM THIS EVENING. MORE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY ISSUE SOME FIRE WEATHER WATCHES LATER
THIS EVENING FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BASED ON THE 00 UTC MODEL
RUNS IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. 78

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM BLOWOFF OF PREVIOUS
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.  EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT MOVES ON. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
EXPECT A REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND
HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN AT KBDN AND KRDM. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS
MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND GUST
UP TO 30 KTS AFTER 18Z WHEN THE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN. KRDM AND KBDN
MAY HAVE WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING NEARBY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  69  99  67  98 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  70  99  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  69 102  68 101 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  64 100  64 100 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  67 101  67 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  59  99  59  98 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  60  94  57  93 /  30  20  20  20
LGD  64  94  62  93 /  20  20  20  20
GCD  67  93  63  91 /  30  30  30  20
DLS  64  97  65  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78











000
FXUS66 KPDT 300527 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1027 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HELPED TO
IGNITE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 11 PM THIS EVENING. MORE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY ISSUE SOME FIRE WEATHER WATCHES LATER
THIS EVENING FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BASED ON THE 00 UTC MODEL
RUNS IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. 78

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM BLOWOFF OF PREVIOUS
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.  EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT MOVES ON. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
EXPECT A REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND
HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN AT KBDN AND KRDM. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS
MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND GUST
UP TO 30 KTS AFTER 18Z WHEN THE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN. KRDM AND KBDN
MAY HAVE WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING NEARBY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  69  99  67  98 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  70  99  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  69 102  68 101 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  64 100  64 100 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  67 101  67 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  59  99  59  98 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  60  94  57  93 /  30  20  20  20
LGD  64  94  62  93 /  20  20  20  20
GCD  67  93  63  91 /  30  30  30  20
DLS  64  97  65  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78











000
FXUS66 KPDT 300527 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1027 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HELPED TO
IGNITE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 11 PM THIS EVENING. MORE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY ISSUE SOME FIRE WEATHER WATCHES LATER
THIS EVENING FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BASED ON THE 00 UTC MODEL
RUNS IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. 78

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM BLOWOFF OF PREVIOUS
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.  EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT MOVES ON. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
EXPECT A REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND
HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN AT KBDN AND KRDM. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS
MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND GUST
UP TO 30 KTS AFTER 18Z WHEN THE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN. KRDM AND KBDN
MAY HAVE WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING NEARBY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  69  99  67  98 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  70  99  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  69 102  68 101 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  64 100  64 100 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  67 101  67 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  59  99  59  98 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  60  94  57  93 /  30  20  20  20
LGD  64  94  62  93 /  20  20  20  20
GCD  67  93  63  91 /  30  30  30  20
DLS  64  97  65  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78











000
FXUS66 KMFR 300359
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
859 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING SAW A FLURRY OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
FROM THE SISKIYOUS NORTHEASTWARD UP ALONG THE CASCADES TO NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY...INCLUDING A LONG-LIVED LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELL THAT
HUGGED HIGHWAY 97 FROM JUST EAST OF CRATER LAKE TO CHEMULT...BEFORE
FINALLY DYING SOUTH OF CRESCENT. A PUBLIC REPORT NEAR THE
JUNCTION OF HIGHWAYS 138 AND 97 INDICATED HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND. SEE OUR FACEBOOK POST WHICH DETAILS THE SATELLITE`S VIEW
OF THE OVERSHOOTING TOP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM. ANOTHER
NOTABLE CELL PRODUCED 0.20-0.40 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AROUND
ASHLAND IN ABOUT AN HOUR`S TIME. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY, BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM
ABOUT DIAMOND/CRATER LAKE SOUTHEASTWARD TO MODOC COUNTY. EXPECT A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND A RED FLAG
WARNING IS ALREADY OUT FOR THAT AT RFWMFR. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 30/00Z TAFS...

ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF LIFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
AREAS CLEARING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.  ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS
SOUTH. STOCKTON

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 400 PM PDT 29 JULY 2014...

THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH SOME SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WILL
PERSIST THIS WEEK. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE  AND A THERMAL TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN STEEP WIND WAVE
DOMINATED SEAS AND AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS FROM CAPE
BLANCO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.  WINDS MAY INCREASE TO
GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS LATE IN THE WEEK FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. STOCKTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT LIGHTNING DETECTION HAD INDICATED ABOUT
100 LIGHTNING STRIKES SCATTERED ABOUT THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 246
PM PDT. WHILE STORM MOVEMENT HAS BEEN GENERALLY SLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 MILES PER HOUR, MANY LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEAR TO
BE FALLING OUTSIDE OF RAIN CORES, LIKELY BECAUSE THE ANVILS OF THE
STORMS ARE BEING BLOWN AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER SPEED
THAN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE STORMS, AROUND 30 KNOTS. ALSO,
STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PULSEY, IN THAT INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE
COLLAPSING WITHIN ABOUT A HALF HOUR OF FORMING.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SISKIYOU COUNTY AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNT SHASTA AREA AND OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND JACKSON COUNTY, THEY
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED IF THEY DO INDEED OCCUR.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE,
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FIRE STARTS
FROM LIGHTNING.

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE MOUNT SHASTA FIRE WEATHER ZONE, WHERE
SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY TO CAUSE STORM FORMATION TO BE DOWNWIND OF
THE VOLCANO AND OTHER PEAKS. A 500MB TROUGH, THOUGH SUBTLE, WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. DUE TO A BIT OF A JOG WESTWARD IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW,
EXPECT THAT WEDNESDAY IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY.

WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY, BUT ONLY IN AREAS WHERE
MODEL LIFTED INDICES ARE -3C OR LOWER. ALTOGETHER, SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD, THOUGH
THE EUROPEAN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A THREAT MAY STILL EXIST ON
THE WEST SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALTOGETHER, IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, DETAILS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL
SLIGHTLY. IN OTHER WORDS, DAY TO DAY CHANGES WILL BE SUBTLE. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ORZ617-621>625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-623>625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ280-281-284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

MAS/BTL/JRS/SBN






000
FXUS66 KMFR 300359
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
859 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING SAW A FLURRY OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
FROM THE SISKIYOUS NORTHEASTWARD UP ALONG THE CASCADES TO NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY...INCLUDING A LONG-LIVED LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELL THAT
HUGGED HIGHWAY 97 FROM JUST EAST OF CRATER LAKE TO CHEMULT...BEFORE
FINALLY DYING SOUTH OF CRESCENT. A PUBLIC REPORT NEAR THE
JUNCTION OF HIGHWAYS 138 AND 97 INDICATED HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND. SEE OUR FACEBOOK POST WHICH DETAILS THE SATELLITE`S VIEW
OF THE OVERSHOOTING TOP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM. ANOTHER
NOTABLE CELL PRODUCED 0.20-0.40 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AROUND
ASHLAND IN ABOUT AN HOUR`S TIME. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY, BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM
ABOUT DIAMOND/CRATER LAKE SOUTHEASTWARD TO MODOC COUNTY. EXPECT A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND A RED FLAG
WARNING IS ALREADY OUT FOR THAT AT RFWMFR. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 30/00Z TAFS...

ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF LIFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
AREAS CLEARING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.  ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS
SOUTH. STOCKTON

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 400 PM PDT 29 JULY 2014...

THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH SOME SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WILL
PERSIST THIS WEEK. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE  AND A THERMAL TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN STEEP WIND WAVE
DOMINATED SEAS AND AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS FROM CAPE
BLANCO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.  WINDS MAY INCREASE TO
GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS LATE IN THE WEEK FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. STOCKTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT LIGHTNING DETECTION HAD INDICATED ABOUT
100 LIGHTNING STRIKES SCATTERED ABOUT THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 246
PM PDT. WHILE STORM MOVEMENT HAS BEEN GENERALLY SLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 MILES PER HOUR, MANY LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEAR TO
BE FALLING OUTSIDE OF RAIN CORES, LIKELY BECAUSE THE ANVILS OF THE
STORMS ARE BEING BLOWN AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER SPEED
THAN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE STORMS, AROUND 30 KNOTS. ALSO,
STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PULSEY, IN THAT INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE
COLLAPSING WITHIN ABOUT A HALF HOUR OF FORMING.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SISKIYOU COUNTY AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNT SHASTA AREA AND OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND JACKSON COUNTY, THEY
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED IF THEY DO INDEED OCCUR.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE,
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FIRE STARTS
FROM LIGHTNING.

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE MOUNT SHASTA FIRE WEATHER ZONE, WHERE
SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY TO CAUSE STORM FORMATION TO BE DOWNWIND OF
THE VOLCANO AND OTHER PEAKS. A 500MB TROUGH, THOUGH SUBTLE, WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. DUE TO A BIT OF A JOG WESTWARD IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW,
EXPECT THAT WEDNESDAY IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY.

WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY, BUT ONLY IN AREAS WHERE
MODEL LIFTED INDICES ARE -3C OR LOWER. ALTOGETHER, SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD, THOUGH
THE EUROPEAN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A THREAT MAY STILL EXIST ON
THE WEST SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALTOGETHER, IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, DETAILS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL
SLIGHTLY. IN OTHER WORDS, DAY TO DAY CHANGES WILL BE SUBTLE. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ORZ617-621>625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-623>625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ280-281-284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

MAS/BTL/JRS/SBN







000
FXUS66 KPQR 300356
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
856 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
BRINGS VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS DRIFTED EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST AS THE AXIS FROM THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DESCRIBED BELOW
HAS LARGELY CROSSED THE CREST. ADD IN THE PREDOMINANT DRY AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE AND IT LOOKS LIKE CONCERN FOR OUR SIDE HAS ENDED. STILL
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER...AS IT APPEARS A FINAL ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT
COULD CLIP THE WILLAMETTE PASS AREA UNDER A STRONG STORM LEFT MOVER
SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...AM SEEING A
STRONGER MARINE PUSH THIS EVENING NOTED BY TEMPERATURES AT KELSO AND
CORVALLIS AIRPORTS LOWERING NEAR TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK ALREADY. THUS
HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME STRATUS PUSH
UP THE COLUMBIA LIKELY REACHING THE PORTLAND METRO BY OR SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THIS PRETTY WELL.
IN ALL...THE GRID PACKAGE IS IN VERY REASONABLE SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. /JBONK

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR AND LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO WED
MORNING. WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT THE COASTAL STRATUS TO
PUSH PARTIALLY UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT. THE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO KSPB...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT CLOUDS WILL
REACH AS FAR AS KPDX AND KTTD. THE OTHER INLAND AIRPORTS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TOMORROW. ANY INLAND STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR BY
ABOUT 16Z TOMORROW. EXPECT THE COAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE WEST AFTER
12Z...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 16Z. PYLE

&&

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED MOSTLY JUST SHORT-TERM WINDS FOR THE EVENING
PACKAGE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS. WITH BUOY 50 GUSTING TO
ONLY 10-15 KT...WILL CANCEL SCA FOR OFFSHORE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS....BUT WILL LET NEAR SHORE SCA RIDE AS NOS STATIONS AT
TILLAMOOK BAY AND NEWPORT CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 20-30
KT. WILL LEAVE DECISIONS ABOUT SCA FOR WEDNESDAY UP TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT AS NEAR SHORE WINDS LOOK MARGINAL WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS INCREASING LATER IN THE PERIOD.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO SHORTEN PERIODS TO 5-6 SECONDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RECENT OBS FROM BUOYS 29 AND 50 AS
WELL AS LATEST GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS SEAS ARE QUITE STEEP WITH 4-5
FEET AT 5-6 SECONDS AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BOWEN

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300356
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
856 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
BRINGS VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS DRIFTED EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST AS THE AXIS FROM THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DESCRIBED BELOW
HAS LARGELY CROSSED THE CREST. ADD IN THE PREDOMINANT DRY AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE AND IT LOOKS LIKE CONCERN FOR OUR SIDE HAS ENDED. STILL
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER...AS IT APPEARS A FINAL ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT
COULD CLIP THE WILLAMETTE PASS AREA UNDER A STRONG STORM LEFT MOVER
SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...AM SEEING A
STRONGER MARINE PUSH THIS EVENING NOTED BY TEMPERATURES AT KELSO AND
CORVALLIS AIRPORTS LOWERING NEAR TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK ALREADY. THUS
HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME STRATUS PUSH
UP THE COLUMBIA LIKELY REACHING THE PORTLAND METRO BY OR SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THIS PRETTY WELL.
IN ALL...THE GRID PACKAGE IS IN VERY REASONABLE SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. /JBONK

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR AND LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO WED
MORNING. WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT THE COASTAL STRATUS TO
PUSH PARTIALLY UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT. THE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO KSPB...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT CLOUDS WILL
REACH AS FAR AS KPDX AND KTTD. THE OTHER INLAND AIRPORTS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TOMORROW. ANY INLAND STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR BY
ABOUT 16Z TOMORROW. EXPECT THE COAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE WEST AFTER
12Z...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 16Z. PYLE

&&

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED MOSTLY JUST SHORT-TERM WINDS FOR THE EVENING
PACKAGE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS. WITH BUOY 50 GUSTING TO
ONLY 10-15 KT...WILL CANCEL SCA FOR OFFSHORE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS....BUT WILL LET NEAR SHORE SCA RIDE AS NOS STATIONS AT
TILLAMOOK BAY AND NEWPORT CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 20-30
KT. WILL LEAVE DECISIONS ABOUT SCA FOR WEDNESDAY UP TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT AS NEAR SHORE WINDS LOOK MARGINAL WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS INCREASING LATER IN THE PERIOD.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO SHORTEN PERIODS TO 5-6 SECONDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RECENT OBS FROM BUOYS 29 AND 50 AS
WELL AS LATEST GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS SEAS ARE QUITE STEEP WITH 4-5
FEET AT 5-6 SECONDS AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BOWEN

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 300356
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
856 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA LEAVING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES
BRINGS VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS DRIFTED EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST AS THE AXIS FROM THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DESCRIBED BELOW
HAS LARGELY CROSSED THE CREST. ADD IN THE PREDOMINANT DRY AIR BEHIND
THE WAVE AND IT LOOKS LIKE CONCERN FOR OUR SIDE HAS ENDED. STILL
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER...AS IT APPEARS A FINAL ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT
COULD CLIP THE WILLAMETTE PASS AREA UNDER A STRONG STORM LEFT MOVER
SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...AM SEEING A
STRONGER MARINE PUSH THIS EVENING NOTED BY TEMPERATURES AT KELSO AND
CORVALLIS AIRPORTS LOWERING NEAR TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK ALREADY. THUS
HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME STRATUS PUSH
UP THE COLUMBIA LIKELY REACHING THE PORTLAND METRO BY OR SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THIS PRETTY WELL.
IN ALL...THE GRID PACKAGE IS IN VERY REASONABLE SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. /JBONK

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR AND LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO WED
MORNING. WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT THE COASTAL STRATUS TO
PUSH PARTIALLY UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT. THE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO KSPB...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT CLOUDS WILL
REACH AS FAR AS KPDX AND KTTD. THE OTHER INLAND AIRPORTS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TOMORROW. ANY INLAND STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR BY
ABOUT 16Z TOMORROW. EXPECT THE COAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE
COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL FROM THE WEST AFTER
12Z...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 16Z. PYLE

&&

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED MOSTLY JUST SHORT-TERM WINDS FOR THE EVENING
PACKAGE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS. WITH BUOY 50 GUSTING TO
ONLY 10-15 KT...WILL CANCEL SCA FOR OFFSHORE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS....BUT WILL LET NEAR SHORE SCA RIDE AS NOS STATIONS AT
TILLAMOOK BAY AND NEWPORT CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 20-30
KT. WILL LEAVE DECISIONS ABOUT SCA FOR WEDNESDAY UP TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT AS NEAR SHORE WINDS LOOK MARGINAL WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS INCREASING LATER IN THE PERIOD.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO SHORTEN PERIODS TO 5-6 SECONDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RECENT OBS FROM BUOYS 29 AND 50 AS
WELL AS LATEST GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS SEAS ARE QUITE STEEP WITH 4-5
FEET AT 5-6 SECONDS AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BOWEN

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS65 KBOI 300301
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
901 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING. ONE INCH
HAIL WAS REPORTED NORTH OF MOUNTAIN HOME THIS AFTERNOON AT 540 PM
MDT. STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SE OWYHEE COUNTY...AND ALSO
OVER JEROME AND TWIN FALLS COUNTIES...AS OF 9 PM MDT. WITH A VERY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THU...WE
EXPECT CONTINUED ACTIVE CONVECTION MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY 06Z. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 5-10
KTS EXCEPT STRONGER AND GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2PM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING IN THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR ALL OUR CWA BORDERS...EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY.  AIR
MASS WAS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS MORNING BUT ON A GRADUAL
DRYING AND STABILIZING TREND THIS AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO
MODELS.  THEREFORE WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED.  WITH
ONLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT THEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND MAY DROP HEAVY
RAINS.  MODELS SUGGEST HIGHEST POPS IN OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING
THEN LOW POPS IN ALL ZONES LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE INCREASING POPS IN ALL AREAS. MODELS...
ESPECIALLY GFS...TAP SOME HIGH-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HERNAN
OFF BAJA CALIF AND ADVECT IT NEWD INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY.  TEMPS A
TAD COOLER WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE VERY WARM UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOWS SIGNS OF LOSING
AMPLITUDE THIS WEEKEND...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. MONSOON MOISTURE WITHIN THE RIDGE CIRCULATION WILL
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION. WEAK DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE THURSDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY...BRINGING DRIER AIR AND DECREASING THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 300301
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
901 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING. ONE INCH
HAIL WAS REPORTED NORTH OF MOUNTAIN HOME THIS AFTERNOON AT 540 PM
MDT. STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SE OWYHEE COUNTY...AND ALSO
OVER JEROME AND TWIN FALLS COUNTIES...AS OF 9 PM MDT. WITH A VERY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND THU...WE
EXPECT CONTINUED ACTIVE CONVECTION MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY 06Z. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 5-10
KTS EXCEPT STRONGER AND GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2PM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING IN THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR ALL OUR CWA BORDERS...EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY.  AIR
MASS WAS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS MORNING BUT ON A GRADUAL
DRYING AND STABILIZING TREND THIS AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO
MODELS.  THEREFORE WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED.  WITH
ONLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT THEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND MAY DROP HEAVY
RAINS.  MODELS SUGGEST HIGHEST POPS IN OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING
THEN LOW POPS IN ALL ZONES LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE INCREASING POPS IN ALL AREAS. MODELS...
ESPECIALLY GFS...TAP SOME HIGH-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HERNAN
OFF BAJA CALIF AND ADVECT IT NEWD INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY.  TEMPS A
TAD COOLER WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE VERY WARM UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOWS SIGNS OF LOSING
AMPLITUDE THIS WEEKEND...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. MONSOON MOISTURE WITHIN THE RIDGE CIRCULATION WILL
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION. WEAK DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE THURSDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY...BRINGING DRIER AIR AND DECREASING THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/AB



000
FXUS66 KPDT 300223
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
718 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HELPED TO
IGNITE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 11 PM THIS EVENING. MORE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY ISSUE SOME FIRE WEATHER WATCHES LATER
THIS EVENING FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BASED ON THE 00 UTC MODEL
RUNS IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  69  99  67  98 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  70  99  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  69 102  68 101 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  64 100  64 100 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  67 101  67 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  59  99  59  98 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  60  94  57  93 /  30  20  20  20
LGD  64  94  62  93 /  20  20  20  20
GCD  67  93  63  91 /  30  30  30  20
DLS  64  97  65  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78









000
FXUS66 KPDT 300223
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
718 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HELPED TO
IGNITE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 11 PM THIS EVENING. MORE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY ISSUE SOME FIRE WEATHER WATCHES LATER
THIS EVENING FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BASED ON THE 00 UTC MODEL
RUNS IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  69  99  67  98 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  70  99  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  69 102  68 101 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  64 100  64 100 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  67 101  67 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  59  99  59  98 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  60  94  57  93 /  30  20  20  20
LGD  64  94  62  93 /  20  20  20  20
GCD  67  93  63  91 /  30  30  30  20
DLS  64  97  65  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

78








000
FXUS66 KPDT 292242 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
342 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND BEYOND. MOISTURE WORKING
ITS WAY AROUND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO NORTHEAST OREGON WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ABUNDANT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME LOCAL BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. OUR
AREA WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND
MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DETAILS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN IN THE LATE EVENING
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS AND THE WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR CLE ELUM.
ON SATURDAY A WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST AND WILL CREATE A WEAK
TROUGH OFFSHORE. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND SEND A
STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH AT THIS POINT, THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE WASHINGTON CASCADES NORTH OF MOUNT
ADAMS LOOK DRY. ON SUNDAY THE WAVE WEAKENS IN THE ECMWF AND REMAINS
ALONG THE COAST IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL OREGON. CURRENT FORECAST WAS SIMILAR TO THE GFS SO HAVE KEPT
IT FOR NOW. ON MONDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER IDAHO
WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HAVE CUT BACK A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS AND THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. BY TUESDAY BOTH MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE OVER INTO MONTANA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHILE MOISTURE IS MARGINAL,
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTER OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID 90S AND LOWER 100S WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z-05Z. THIS WILL AFFECT KBDN
AND KRDM AND HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE SITES. THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE FEW-SCT HIGH CUMULUS AND CIRRUS INITIALLY BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS THUNDERSTORM BLOWOFF REACHES AREAS
FURTHER NORTH. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
EXPECT A REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND
HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN AT KBDN AND KRDM. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS
MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THROUGH 05Z AND AGAIN AFTER 18Z. KRDM
AND KBDN MAY HAVE WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING NEARBY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PERRY

&&

.FIRE WX...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
BE POOR TO MODERATE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES EAST OF THE
CASCADES. FURTHERMORE...MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL OREGON...THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. EACH DAY THIS
WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER UNTIL FRIDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION SO WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY RED
FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  99  67  98 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  71  99  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  68 102  68 101 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  65 100  64 100 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  68 101  67 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  59  99  59  98 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  57  94  57  93 /  30  20  20  20
LGD  61  94  62  93 /  20  20  20  20
GCD  66  93  63  91 /  30  20  30  20
DLS  67  97  65  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83






000
FXUS66 KMFR 292210
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
310 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT LIGHTNING DETECTION HAD INDICATED ABOUT
100 LIGHTNING STRIKES SCATTERED ABOUT THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 246
PM PDT. WHILE STORM MOVEMENT HAS BEEN GENERALLY SLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 MILES PER HOUR, MANY LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEAR TO
BE FALLING OUTSIDE OF RAIN CORES, LIKELY BECAUSE THE ANVILS OF THE
STORMS ARE BEING BLOWN AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER SPEED
THAN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE STORMS, AROUND 30 KNOTS. ALSO,
STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PULSEY, IN THAT INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE
COLLAPSING WITHIN ABOUT A HALF HOUR OF FORMING.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SISKIYOU COUNTY AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNT SHASTA AREA AND OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND JACKSON COUNTY, THEY
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED IF THEY DO INDEED OCCUR.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE,
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FIRE STARTS
FROM LIGHTNING.

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE MOUNT SHASTA FIRE WEATHER ZONE, WHERE
SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY TO CAUSE STORM FORMATION TO BE DOWNWIND OF
THE VOLCANO AND OTHER PEAKS. A 500MB TROUGH, THOUGH SUBTLE, WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. DUE TO A BIT OF A JOG WESTWARD IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW,
EXPECT THAT WEDNESDAY IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY.

WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY, BUT ONLY IN AREAS WHERE
MODEL LIFTED INDICES ARE -3C OR LOWER. ALTOGETHER, SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD, THOUGH
THE EUROPEAN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A THREAT MAY STILL EXIST ON
THE WEST SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALTOGETHER, IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, DETAILS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL
SLIGHTLY. IN OTHER WORDS, DAY TO DAY CHANGES WILL BE SUBTLE. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/18Z TAFS...

AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALL ALONG THE COAST AND
IN THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF CAPE BLANCO. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSED MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS. STORMS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND STRATUS WILL RETURN TO
COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH ABOUT THE SAME OR A BIT LESS INLAND EXTENT
AS THIS MORNING...REACHING INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT 29 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH SOME
SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND
AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MORESO ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY INCREASE TO GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS LATE
IN THE WEEK FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH.
/SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ORZ617-621>625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-623>625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ280-281-284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
  FOR PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
  FOR PZZ350-370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/SBN







000
FXUS66 KMFR 292210
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
310 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT LIGHTNING DETECTION HAD INDICATED ABOUT
100 LIGHTNING STRIKES SCATTERED ABOUT THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 246
PM PDT. WHILE STORM MOVEMENT HAS BEEN GENERALLY SLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 MILES PER HOUR, MANY LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEAR TO
BE FALLING OUTSIDE OF RAIN CORES, LIKELY BECAUSE THE ANVILS OF THE
STORMS ARE BEING BLOWN AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER SPEED
THAN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE STORMS, AROUND 30 KNOTS. ALSO,
STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PULSEY, IN THAT INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE
COLLAPSING WITHIN ABOUT A HALF HOUR OF FORMING.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SISKIYOU COUNTY AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNT SHASTA AREA AND OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND JACKSON COUNTY, THEY
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED IF THEY DO INDEED OCCUR.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE,
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FIRE STARTS
FROM LIGHTNING.

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE MOUNT SHASTA FIRE WEATHER ZONE, WHERE
SOUTH FLOW IS LIKELY TO CAUSE STORM FORMATION TO BE DOWNWIND OF
THE VOLCANO AND OTHER PEAKS. A 500MB TROUGH, THOUGH SUBTLE, WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. DUE TO A BIT OF A JOG WESTWARD IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW,
EXPECT THAT WEDNESDAY IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY.

WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY, BUT ONLY IN AREAS WHERE
MODEL LIFTED INDICES ARE -3C OR LOWER. ALTOGETHER, SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD, THOUGH
THE EUROPEAN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A THREAT MAY STILL EXIST ON
THE WEST SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALTOGETHER, IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, DETAILS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL
SLIGHTLY. IN OTHER WORDS, DAY TO DAY CHANGES WILL BE SUBTLE. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/18Z TAFS...

AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALL ALONG THE COAST AND
IN THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF CAPE BLANCO. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSED MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS. STORMS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND STRATUS WILL RETURN TO
COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH ABOUT THE SAME OR A BIT LESS INLAND EXTENT
AS THIS MORNING...REACHING INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT 29 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH SOME
SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND
AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MORESO ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY INCREASE TO GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS LATE
IN THE WEEK FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH.
/SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ORZ617-621>625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-623>625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ280-281-284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
  FOR PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
  FOR PZZ350-370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/SBN






000
FXUS66 KPQR 292147
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS
OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND AIRPORTS TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF MT JEFFERSON. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES DRIFTING NNE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TONIGHT AND WED WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AS A THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 292147
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS
OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND AIRPORTS TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF MT JEFFERSON. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES DRIFTING NNE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TONIGHT AND WED WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AS A THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 292147
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS
OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY LARGE CELL WHICH WAS WARNED ON NEAR MCKENZIE PASS.
RADAR HAIL SIZE ESTIMATES MAXED OUT AT 1.75 INCHES...APPROACHING
PING PONG BALL SIZE...THOUGH ACTUAL HAIL SIZE WAS LIKELY A BIT LOWER
THAN THAT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FED A BIT OFF OF CONVERGING UPSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD. PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
MORE STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP SIMILARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE.

ANOTHER DRIVER FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WAS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE OREGON CASCADES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALSO MAY HAVE HELPED PUSH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CELL TO SEVERE LIMITS. AS THE JET MAX MOVES ON AND THE SUN GOES DOWN
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN STORY IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER INLAND. TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OR
HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 2
PM. WHILE TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF NICELY INTO THE 50S IN THE OUTLYING
VALLEYS...URBAN AREAS AND EXPOSED HILLSIDES HAVE SEEN LESS RELIEF
WITH TEMPS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONLY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER AS A WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW CONTINUES.

RISK FOR THUNDER DECREASES TEMPORARILY WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS
DEPICT WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER ON THE CREST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT.
MOISTURE APPEARS LESS ABUNDANT THOUGH...AND AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THU/THU
NIGHT AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN LIFT
NORTH AND POSSIBLY COMBINE WITH ONE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES PRESENTLY
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEYOND 130W. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE ARE TARGETING AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
AND POINTS EAST. HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AREAS FURTHER
WEST COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
IN SOME SE FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...JUST INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE
CREST OF THE OREGON CASCADES THU/THU NIGHT.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE UP THIS RIDGE AND BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE WILL STAY ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST.THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
KEEP HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNTIL THIS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EITHER BREAKS DOWN OR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COASTLINE
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND AIRPORTS TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF MT JEFFERSON. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES DRIFTING NNE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TONIGHT AND WED WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC
AS A THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS IN THE FORECAST. THE SEAS WILL BE THE
STEEPEST WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&




000
FXUS66 KPDT 292132
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
233 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND BEYOND. MOISTURE WORKING
ITS WAY AROUND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO NORTHEAST OREGON WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ABUNDANT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME LOCAL BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. OUR
AREA WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND
MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DETAILS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN IN THE LATE EVENING
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS AND THE WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR CLE ELUM.
ON SATURDAY A WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST AND WILL CREATE A WEAK
TROUGH OFFSHORE. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND SEND A
STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH AT THIS POINT, THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE WASHINGTON CASCADES NORTH OF MOUNT
ADAMS LOOK DRY. ON SUNDAY THE WAVE WEAKENS IN THE ECMWF AND REMAINS
ALONG THE COAST IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL OREGON. CURRENT FORECAST WAS SIMILAR TO THE GFS SO HAVE KEPT
IT FOR NOW. ON MONDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER IDAHO
WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HAVE CUT BACK A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS AND THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. BY TUESDAY BOTH MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE OVER INTO MONTANA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHILE MOISTURE IS MARGINAL,
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTER OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID 90S AND LOWER 100S WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY



&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FEW-SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN
HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS IN CENTRAL OREGON INCLUDING KBDN AND KRDM
IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING. STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON
AFTER 21Z AND COULD IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM UNTIL 05Z. CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE HIGHER TODAY SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KBDN AND KRDM BUT IT IS
STILL MARGINAL THAT TS WILL OCCUR NEAR THOSE SITES. RESIDUAL
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  PERRY


&&

.FIRE WX...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
BE POOR TO MODERATE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES EAST OF THE
CASCADES. FURTHERMORE...MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL OREGON...THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. EACH DAY THIS
WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER UNTIL FRIDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION SO WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY RED
FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  99  67  98 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  71  99  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  68 102  68 101 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  65 100  64 100 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  68 101  67 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  59  99  59  98 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  57  94  57  93 /  30  20  20  20
LGD  61  94  62  93 /  20  20  20  20
GCD  66  93  63  91 /  30  20  30  20
DLS  67  97  65  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83








000
FXUS66 KPDT 292132
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
233 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND BEYOND. MOISTURE WORKING
ITS WAY AROUND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO NORTHEAST OREGON WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ABUNDANT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME LOCAL BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. OUR
AREA WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND
MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DETAILS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN IN THE LATE EVENING
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS AND THE WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR CLE ELUM.
ON SATURDAY A WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST AND WILL CREATE A WEAK
TROUGH OFFSHORE. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND SEND A
STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH AT THIS POINT, THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE WASHINGTON CASCADES NORTH OF MOUNT
ADAMS LOOK DRY. ON SUNDAY THE WAVE WEAKENS IN THE ECMWF AND REMAINS
ALONG THE COAST IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL OREGON. CURRENT FORECAST WAS SIMILAR TO THE GFS SO HAVE KEPT
IT FOR NOW. ON MONDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER IDAHO
WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HAVE CUT BACK A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS AND THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. BY TUESDAY BOTH MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE OVER INTO MONTANA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WHILE MOISTURE IS MARGINAL,
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTER OREGON MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID 90S AND LOWER 100S WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY



&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FEW-SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN
HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS IN CENTRAL OREGON INCLUDING KBDN AND KRDM
IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING. STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON
AFTER 21Z AND COULD IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM UNTIL 05Z. CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE HIGHER TODAY SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KBDN AND KRDM BUT IT IS
STILL MARGINAL THAT TS WILL OCCUR NEAR THOSE SITES. RESIDUAL
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  PERRY


&&

.FIRE WX...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
BE POOR TO MODERATE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES EAST OF THE
CASCADES. FURTHERMORE...MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL OREGON...THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. EACH DAY THIS
WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER UNTIL FRIDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION SO WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY RED
FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  99  67  98 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  71  99  71  99 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  68 102  68 101 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  65 100  64 100 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  68 101  67 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  59  99  59  98 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  57  94  57  93 /  30  20  20  20
LGD  61  94  62  93 /  20  20  20  20
GCD  66  93  63  91 /  30  20  30  20
DLS  67  97  65  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83









000
FXUS65 KBOI 292049
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
249 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...AT 2PM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING IN THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR ALL OUR CWA BORDERS...EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY.  AIR
MASS WAS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS MORNING BUT ON A GRADUAL
DRYING AND STABILIZING TREND THIS AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO
MODELS.  THEREFORE WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED.  WITH
ONLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT THEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND MAY DROP HEAVY
RAINS.  MODELS SUGGEST HIGHEST POPS IN OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING
THEN LOW POPS IN ALL ZONES LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE INCREASING POPS IN ALL AREAS. MODELS...
ESPECIALLY GFS...TAP SOME HIGH-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HERNAN
OFF BAJA CALIF AND ADVECT IT NEWD INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY.  TEMPS A
TAD COOLER WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE VERY WARM UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOWS SIGNS OF LOSING
AMPLITUDE THIS WEEKEND...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. MONSOON MOISTURE WITHIN THE RIDGE CIRCULATION WILL
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION. WEAK DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE THURSDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY...BRINGING DRIER AIR AND DECREASING THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING IN OREGON OVER HARNEY AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTIES...AND
IN IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME ISOLATED AFTER 06Z...THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE
5-10 KTS EXCEPT STRONGER AND GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/AB
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 292049
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
249 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...AT 2PM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING IN THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR ALL OUR CWA BORDERS...EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY.  AIR
MASS WAS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS MORNING BUT ON A GRADUAL
DRYING AND STABILIZING TREND THIS AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO
MODELS.  THEREFORE WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED.  WITH
ONLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT THEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND MAY DROP HEAVY
RAINS.  MODELS SUGGEST HIGHEST POPS IN OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING
THEN LOW POPS IN ALL ZONES LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE INCREASING POPS IN ALL AREAS. MODELS...
ESPECIALLY GFS...TAP SOME HIGH-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HERNAN
OFF BAJA CALIF AND ADVECT IT NEWD INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY.  TEMPS A
TAD COOLER WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE VERY WARM UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOWS SIGNS OF LOSING
AMPLITUDE THIS WEEKEND...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. MONSOON MOISTURE WITHIN THE RIDGE CIRCULATION WILL
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION. WEAK DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE THURSDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY...BRINGING DRIER AIR AND DECREASING THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING IN OREGON OVER HARNEY AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTIES...AND
IN IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME ISOLATED AFTER 06Z...THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE
5-10 KTS EXCEPT STRONGER AND GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/AB
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS66 KPDT 291712 RRA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1011 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH FEW-SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ALSO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
CENTRAL OREGON INCLUDING KBDN AND KRDM IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND COULD
IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM UNTIL 05Z. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY
SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KBDN AND KRDM BUT IT IS STILL MARGINAL THAT
TS WILL OCCUR NEAR THOSE SITES. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EACH DAY AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S TO
LOWER 100S AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WAITING ON STRONGER SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE LIFT TO GET
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES SEEN
ON SATELLITE FOR THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE WEAK ONES VICINITY OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN HOT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 100-105. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM AS
WELL.  94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO
DAY SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS LOW.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON
BORDER. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY SINCE EITHER SCENARIO HAS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WITH A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA (GFS) OR NORTH
INTO CANADA (ECMWF) ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE
FORMING OFFSHORE AND MOVING INTO OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON. MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN IDAHO AND MONTANA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH
SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS. COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  68  99  67 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 101  71  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
PSC 103  68 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  65 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 103  68 101  67 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  99  59  99  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  95  57  94  58 /  20  20  20  20
LGD  97  61  94  61 /  10  20  20  20
GCD  95  66  93  61 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  98  67  97  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83






000
FXUS66 KPDT 291712 RRA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1011 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH FEW-SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ALSO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
CENTRAL OREGON INCLUDING KBDN AND KRDM IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND COULD
IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM UNTIL 05Z. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY
SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KBDN AND KRDM BUT IT IS STILL MARGINAL THAT
TS WILL OCCUR NEAR THOSE SITES. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EACH DAY AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S TO
LOWER 100S AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WAITING ON STRONGER SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE LIFT TO GET
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES SEEN
ON SATELLITE FOR THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE WEAK ONES VICINITY OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN HOT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 100-105. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM AS
WELL.  94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO
DAY SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS LOW.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON
BORDER. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY SINCE EITHER SCENARIO HAS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WITH A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA (GFS) OR NORTH
INTO CANADA (ECMWF) ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE
FORMING OFFSHORE AND MOVING INTO OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON. MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN IDAHO AND MONTANA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH
SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS. COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  68  99  67 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 101  71  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
PSC 103  68 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  65 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 103  68 101  67 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  99  59  99  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  95  57  94  58 /  20  20  20  20
LGD  97  61  94  61 /  10  20  20  20
GCD  95  66  93  61 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  98  67  97  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 291711
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1011 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
FEW-SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS IN CENTRAL OREGON
INCLUDING KBDN AND KRDM IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND COULD IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM
UNTIL 05Z. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
AT KBDN AND KRDM BUT IT IS STILL MARGINAL THAT TS WILL OCCUR NEAR
THOSE SITES. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20
KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EACH DAY AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S TO
LOWER 100S AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WAITING ON STRONGER SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE LIFT TO GET
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES SEEN
ON SATELLITE FOR THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE WEAK ONES VICINITY OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN HOT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 100-105. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM AS
WELL.  94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO
DAY SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS LOW.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON
BORDER. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY SINCE EITHER SCENARIO HAS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WITH A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA (GFS) OR NORTH
INTO CANADA (ECMWF) ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE
FORMING OFFSHORE AND MOVING INTO OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON. MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN IDAHO AND MONTANA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH
SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS. COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  68  99  67 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 101  71  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
PSC 103  68 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  65 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 103  68 101  67 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  99  59  99  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  95  57  94  58 /  20  20  20  20
LGD  97  61  94  61 /  10  20  20  20
GCD  95  66  93  61 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  98  67  97  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83






000
FXUS66 KPDT 291711
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1011 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
FEW-SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS IN CENTRAL OREGON
INCLUDING KBDN AND KRDM IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON AFTER 21Z AND COULD IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM
UNTIL 05Z. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
AT KBDN AND KRDM BUT IT IS STILL MARGINAL THAT TS WILL OCCUR NEAR
THOSE SITES. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20
KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EACH DAY AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S TO
LOWER 100S AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WAITING ON STRONGER SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE LIFT TO GET
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES SEEN
ON SATELLITE FOR THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE WEAK ONES VICINITY OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN HOT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 100-105. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM AS
WELL.  94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO
DAY SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS LOW.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON
BORDER. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY SINCE EITHER SCENARIO HAS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WITH A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA (GFS) OR NORTH
INTO CANADA (ECMWF) ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE
FORMING OFFSHORE AND MOVING INTO OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON. MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN IDAHO AND MONTANA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH
SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS. COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  68  99  67 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 101  71  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
PSC 103  68 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  65 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 103  68 101  67 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  99  59  99  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  95  57  94  58 /  20  20  20  20
LGD  97  61  94  61 /  10  20  20  20
GCD  95  66  93  61 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  98  67  97  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83







000
FXUS66 KPQR 291635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...MAINLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ALTOCUMULUS LIFTING INTO LANE COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INDICATES A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN ONE OF THESE
CLOUDS EAST OF EUGENE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR ALTOCUMULUS
BUILDUP IS HEADED TOWARD SANTIAM PASS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS CELL EITHER. THUS WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES EARLY TODAY AS
WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON.

BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT MOVING IN ALOFT OVER EAST LANE COUNTY IS
BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY THE 12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING THAN THE SALEM
SOUNDING. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE ALOFT VERY
WELL. A WEAK DRY SLOT IS NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HEADED
NORTH FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE OREGON CASCADES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE MORNING
FORECAST AND MADE FEW CHANGES.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG IS HUGGING THE COAST AND SOME OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS MADE IT INTO
KKLS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO CLEAR INLAND...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST BETWEEN
19 AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND
AIRPORTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSLE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TJ

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO INCLUDE THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS. THE SEAS WILL BE THE STEEPEST WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS AND FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...MAINLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ALTOCUMULUS LIFTING INTO LANE COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INDICATES A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN ONE OF THESE
CLOUDS EAST OF EUGENE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR ALTOCUMULUS
BUILDUP IS HEADED TOWARD SANTIAM PASS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS CELL EITHER. THUS WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES EARLY TODAY AS
WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON.

BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT MOVING IN ALOFT OVER EAST LANE COUNTY IS
BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY THE 12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING THAN THE SALEM
SOUNDING. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE ALOFT VERY
WELL. A WEAK DRY SLOT IS NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HEADED
NORTH FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE OREGON CASCADES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE MORNING
FORECAST AND MADE FEW CHANGES.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG IS HUGGING THE COAST AND SOME OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS MADE IT INTO
KKLS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO CLEAR INLAND...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST BETWEEN
19 AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND
AIRPORTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSLE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TJ

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO INCLUDE THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS. THE SEAS WILL BE THE STEEPEST WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS AND FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...MAINLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ALTOCUMULUS LIFTING INTO LANE COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INDICATES A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN ONE OF THESE
CLOUDS EAST OF EUGENE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR ALTOCUMULUS
BUILDUP IS HEADED TOWARD SANTIAM PASS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS CELL EITHER. THUS WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES EARLY TODAY AS
WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON.

BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT MOVING IN ALOFT OVER EAST LANE COUNTY IS
BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY THE 12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING THAN THE SALEM
SOUNDING. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE ALOFT VERY
WELL. A WEAK DRY SLOT IS NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HEADED
NORTH FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE OREGON CASCADES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE MORNING
FORECAST AND MADE FEW CHANGES.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG IS HUGGING THE COAST AND SOME OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS MADE IT INTO
KKLS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO CLEAR INLAND...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST BETWEEN
19 AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND
AIRPORTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSLE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TJ

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO INCLUDE THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS. THE SEAS WILL BE THE STEEPEST WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS AND FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...MAINLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ALTOCUMULUS LIFTING INTO LANE COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INDICATES A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN ONE OF THESE
CLOUDS EAST OF EUGENE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR ALTOCUMULUS
BUILDUP IS HEADED TOWARD SANTIAM PASS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS CELL EITHER. THUS WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES EARLY TODAY AS
WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON.

BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT MOVING IN ALOFT OVER EAST LANE COUNTY IS
BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY THE 12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING THAN THE SALEM
SOUNDING. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE ALOFT VERY
WELL. A WEAK DRY SLOT IS NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HEADED
NORTH FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE OREGON CASCADES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE MORNING
FORECAST AND MADE FEW CHANGES.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG IS HUGGING THE COAST AND SOME OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS MADE IT INTO
KKLS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO CLEAR INLAND...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST BETWEEN
19 AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND
AIRPORTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSLE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TJ

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO INCLUDE THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS. THE SEAS WILL BE THE STEEPEST WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS AND FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CANADA...AS A RESULT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT IS VERY WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE
THE INTERIOR REMAINS VERY WARM. WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH FROM
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE
CASCADES...MAINLY LANE COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS OVERALL
PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.UPDATE...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ALTOCUMULUS LIFTING INTO LANE COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INDICATES A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN ONE OF THESE
CLOUDS EAST OF EUGENE EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SIMILAR ALTOCUMULUS
BUILDUP IS HEADED TOWARD SANTIAM PASS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OUT OF THIS CELL EITHER. THUS WE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES EARLY TODAY AS
WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON.

BELIEVE THE ENVIRONMENT MOVING IN ALOFT OVER EAST LANE COUNTY IS
BETTER CHARACTERIZED BY THE 12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING THAN THE SALEM
SOUNDING. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE ALOFT VERY
WELL. A WEAK DRY SLOT IS NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HEADED
NORTH FROM THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE OREGON CASCADES
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE MORNING
FORECAST AND MADE FEW CHANGES.WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG IS HUGGING THE COAST AND SOME OF THE
COASTAL VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS MADE IT INTO
KKLS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS BEGINNING
TO CLEAR INLAND...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST BETWEEN
19 AND 21Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND
AIRPORTS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF KSLE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TJ

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN/TJ

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AS A
THERMAL TROUGH HOLDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL RISE SLIGHTLY NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS RESULTING
IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OREGON WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 25 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO INCLUDE THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.

THE SEAS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL WINDS. STEEP SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
BACKGROUND LONGER PERIOD SEAS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP ON
THE BUOYS...BUT THESE ARE VERY SMALL...1 FOOT OR LESS...AND LESS
SIGNIFICANT TO THE MARINER THAN THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS AT 6 TO 8
SECONDS. THE STEEP SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
FRESH SWELL WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISTINGUISH AND HAVE
THEREFORE COMBINED THE SEAS. THE SEAS WILL BE THE STEEPEST WHEN
THE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST...DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD AND NEAR SHORE. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS AND FROM CASCADE
     HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 291605
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES ARE NECESSARY THIS MORNING. CURRENT WARNINGS AND WATCHES
LOOK ON TRACK WHEN FACTORING IN BOTH REAL TIME DATA AND THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE SHORTER TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COMBINING WITH EXISTING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS THAT MAY JOG OUT INTO THE NEARBY VALLEYS. BTL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED AT 321 AM PDT THIS MORNING...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING USHERED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM TWO AREAS. FIRST...A BIG SWATH OF
MOISTURE IS SOURCED FROM A CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN UTAH...AND
THE SECOND IS FARTHER AWAY...MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH UP FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE MOISTURE
FEEDS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK
AT LEAST.

RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOMORROW...RANGING FROM
0.75 INCHES EAST OF THE CASCADES TO 1 INCH WEST OF THE
CASCADES...INDICATE RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AND MORESO AS
ONE HEADS WEST. OF COURSE LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF STORM
CORES AND THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO START FIRES. STORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREAT GENERALLY EAST OF JOSEPHINE COUNTY...AND REALLY
MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. A RED FLAG WARNING COVERS THIS
THREAT OF LIGHTNING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...AND THUS THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. MOISTURE VALUES DO CREEP UP SOME ON
WEDNESDAY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH THE STORMS.

THURSDAY MAY FEATURE MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...AND
STORM MOTION WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO NORTH...SO THUNDERSTORMS COULD
COVER A BROADER SWATH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/12Z TAFS...

AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALL ALONG THE COAST AND
INLAND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY. THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BURN
BACK TO THE COASTLINE AROUND NOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...FOCUSED MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
STORMS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND STRATUS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL
TERMINALS...WITH ABOUT THE SAME OR A BIT LESS INLAND EXTENT AS THIS
MORNING...REACHING INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT 29 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH SOME
SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND
AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MORESO ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY INCREASE TO GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS LATE
IN THE WEEK FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH.
/SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES
AND GREAT BASIN AND WILL REMAIN PARKED THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT LEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HOT WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS
SUBSTANTIAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. MOISTURE HAS YET TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER US, BUT IT WILL BECOME DEEPER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE RATHER VOLATILE CONDITIONS
AND GREATLY INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

TWO OF THE MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND HERE
(INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE) WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS FROM THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES EASTWARD. ALL
THE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE SREF AND SPC LIGHTNING AND
THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE, HIT THESE AREAS ALL WEEK. A THIRD
INGREDIENT (TRIGGER) USUALLY RESULTS IN MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY AND CAN OFTEN GET STORMS OVER ONTO THE WEST SIDE AS WELL.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL THUS BE TO IDENTIFY AND THEN TIME ANY
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUPY SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS, ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A LOT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO THESE WILL BE VERY
IMPORTANT, ESPECIALLY AS WE ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON THE WEST SIDE.

A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING.
A VERY WEAK ONE IS LIKELY MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND MAY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. WHILE THESE CELLS AREN`T DOING ANYTHING
AT THE MOMENT, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL FAIRLY STEEP, SO IT
WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH TO GET THEM GOING. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A
DIFFUSE AREA OF VORTICITY DRIFTING THROUGH TODAY. I DON`T THINK
THIS WILL BE MUCH OF A TRIGGER, AND THERE IS A BIT OF CAP EXPECTED
WEST OF THE CASCADES. BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE.

THERE IS A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COAST
THIS MORNING, WHICH ALREADY HAS ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH IT
(INCLUDING ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE). I`M NOT SURE THIS WAVE IS BEING
HANDLED WELL BY ANY OF THE MODELS, BUT PURE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS IT
HERE TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE WHY THE GFS HOLDS ONTO STORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT ON THE EAST SIDE. I DID EXPAND THE POPS OVER THERE
TONIGHT FOR THAT REASON.

I CAN`T REALLY IDENTIFY ANY PARTICULAR TRIGGER ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
WE OUGHT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
(CURRENTLY AROUND 25N 120W) THAT MAY ARRIVE HERE THURSDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE MODELS ALL HANDLE THIS DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT NORTH TO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND BREAKS OUT A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AS A RESULT, EVEN ON THE WEST SIDE. THE GFS
TAKES IT IN SOUTH AND EAST OF US, WHICH MEANS THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
LIKELY STILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE EAST SIDE. NOT SURE WHICH
TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.

I MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED, BUT HOT UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-622>625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621>625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ621.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM
  PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
  FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/TRW/NSK







000
FXUS66 KMFR 291605
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES ARE NECESSARY THIS MORNING. CURRENT WARNINGS AND WATCHES
LOOK ON TRACK WHEN FACTORING IN BOTH REAL TIME DATA AND THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE SHORTER TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY
WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COMBINING WITH EXISTING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS THAT MAY JOG OUT INTO THE NEARBY VALLEYS. BTL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED AT 321 AM PDT THIS MORNING...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING USHERED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM TWO AREAS. FIRST...A BIG SWATH OF
MOISTURE IS SOURCED FROM A CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN UTAH...AND
THE SECOND IS FARTHER AWAY...MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH UP FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE MOISTURE
FEEDS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK
AT LEAST.

RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOMORROW...RANGING FROM
0.75 INCHES EAST OF THE CASCADES TO 1 INCH WEST OF THE
CASCADES...INDICATE RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AND MORESO AS
ONE HEADS WEST. OF COURSE LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF STORM
CORES AND THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO START FIRES. STORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREAT GENERALLY EAST OF JOSEPHINE COUNTY...AND REALLY
MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. A RED FLAG WARNING COVERS THIS
THREAT OF LIGHTNING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...AND THUS THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. MOISTURE VALUES DO CREEP UP SOME ON
WEDNESDAY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH THE STORMS.

THURSDAY MAY FEATURE MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...AND
STORM MOTION WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO NORTH...SO THUNDERSTORMS COULD
COVER A BROADER SWATH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/12Z TAFS...

AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALL ALONG THE COAST AND
INLAND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY. THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BURN
BACK TO THE COASTLINE AROUND NOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...FOCUSED MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
STORMS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND STRATUS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL
TERMINALS...WITH ABOUT THE SAME OR A BIT LESS INLAND EXTENT AS THIS
MORNING...REACHING INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT 29 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH SOME
SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND
AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MORESO ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY INCREASE TO GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS LATE
IN THE WEEK FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH.
/SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES
AND GREAT BASIN AND WILL REMAIN PARKED THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT LEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HOT WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS
SUBSTANTIAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. MOISTURE HAS YET TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER US, BUT IT WILL BECOME DEEPER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE RATHER VOLATILE CONDITIONS
AND GREATLY INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

TWO OF THE MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND HERE
(INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE) WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS FROM THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES EASTWARD. ALL
THE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE SREF AND SPC LIGHTNING AND
THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE, HIT THESE AREAS ALL WEEK. A THIRD
INGREDIENT (TRIGGER) USUALLY RESULTS IN MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY AND CAN OFTEN GET STORMS OVER ONTO THE WEST SIDE AS WELL.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL THUS BE TO IDENTIFY AND THEN TIME ANY
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUPY SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS, ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A LOT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO THESE WILL BE VERY
IMPORTANT, ESPECIALLY AS WE ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON THE WEST SIDE.

A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING.
A VERY WEAK ONE IS LIKELY MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND MAY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. WHILE THESE CELLS AREN`T DOING ANYTHING
AT THE MOMENT, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL FAIRLY STEEP, SO IT
WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH TO GET THEM GOING. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A
DIFFUSE AREA OF VORTICITY DRIFTING THROUGH TODAY. I DON`T THINK
THIS WILL BE MUCH OF A TRIGGER, AND THERE IS A BIT OF CAP EXPECTED
WEST OF THE CASCADES. BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE.

THERE IS A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COAST
THIS MORNING, WHICH ALREADY HAS ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH IT
(INCLUDING ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE). I`M NOT SURE THIS WAVE IS BEING
HANDLED WELL BY ANY OF THE MODELS, BUT PURE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS IT
HERE TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE WHY THE GFS HOLDS ONTO STORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT ON THE EAST SIDE. I DID EXPAND THE POPS OVER THERE
TONIGHT FOR THAT REASON.

I CAN`T REALLY IDENTIFY ANY PARTICULAR TRIGGER ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
WE OUGHT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
(CURRENTLY AROUND 25N 120W) THAT MAY ARRIVE HERE THURSDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE MODELS ALL HANDLE THIS DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT NORTH TO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND BREAKS OUT A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AS A RESULT, EVEN ON THE WEST SIDE. THE GFS
TAKES IT IN SOUTH AND EAST OF US, WHICH MEANS THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
LIKELY STILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE EAST SIDE. NOT SURE WHICH
TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.

I MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED, BUT HOT UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-622>625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621>625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ621.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM
  PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
  FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/TRW/NSK






000
FXUS66 KPDT 291537
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
836 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EACH DAY AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S TO
LOWER 100S AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WAITING ON STRONGER SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE LIFT TO GET
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES SEEN
ON SATELLITE FOR THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE WEAK ONES VICINITY OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN HOT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 100-105. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM AS
WELL.  94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO
DAY SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS LOW.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON
BORDER. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY SINCE EITHER SCENARIO HAS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WITH A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA (GFS) OR NORTH
INTO CANADA (ECMWF) ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE
FORMING OFFSHORE AND MOVING INTO OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON. MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN IDAHO AND MONTANA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH
SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS. COONFIELD

12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT KBDN AND KRDM IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
EVENING. STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON AFTER
21Z AND COULD IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM UNTIL 05Z. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE OF A STORM AT THESE TWO SITES IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  68  99  67 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 101  71  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
PSC 103  68 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  65 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 103  68 101  67 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  99  59  99  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  95  57  94  58 /  20  20  20  20
LGD  97  61  94  61 /  10  20  20  20
GCD  95  66  93  61 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  98  67  97  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83








000
FXUS66 KPDT 291537
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
836 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EACH DAY AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S TO
LOWER 100S AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WAITING ON STRONGER SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE LIFT TO GET
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES SEEN
ON SATELLITE FOR THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE WEAK ONES VICINITY OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN HOT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 100-105. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM AS
WELL.  94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO
DAY SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS LOW.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON
BORDER. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY SINCE EITHER SCENARIO HAS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WITH A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA (GFS) OR NORTH
INTO CANADA (ECMWF) ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE
FORMING OFFSHORE AND MOVING INTO OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON. MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN IDAHO AND MONTANA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH
SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS. COONFIELD

12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT KBDN AND KRDM IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
EVENING. STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON AFTER
21Z AND COULD IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM UNTIL 05Z. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE OF A STORM AT THESE TWO SITES IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  68  99  67 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 101  71  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
PSC 103  68 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 100  65 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 103  68 101  67 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  99  59  99  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  95  57  94  58 /  20  20  20  20
LGD  97  61  94  61 /  10  20  20  20
GCD  95  66  93  61 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  98  67  97  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83









000
FXUS65 KBOI 291512
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
912 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...NEW MODELS TEND TO DECREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL THEREFORE LOWER POPS THESE PERIODS.  WEAK
IMPULSE OFF CALIF MAY REACH HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING BUT MODELS DON/T
MAKE MUCH OF IT.  REST OF CURRENT FORECAST UNCHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
AFTER 18Z UNTIL ABOUT 06Z WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
BASES NEAR 8K-10K FT AGL...OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS MAINLY
EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY...AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTH 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE SNAKE VALLEY THIS EVENING SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ALSO NEED TO WATCH A WEAK FEATURE TRACKING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER SE OREGON BY EVENING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
EXPECT A SIMILAR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST OVER S-CENTRAL
IDAHO ZONES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.  THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MONSOON MOISTURE.  MODELS DO NOT HAVE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS TO PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 291512
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
912 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...NEW MODELS TEND TO DECREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL THEREFORE LOWER POPS THESE PERIODS.  WEAK
IMPULSE OFF CALIF MAY REACH HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING BUT MODELS DON/T
MAKE MUCH OF IT.  REST OF CURRENT FORECAST UNCHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
AFTER 18Z UNTIL ABOUT 06Z WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
BASES NEAR 8K-10K FT AGL...OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS MAINLY
EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY...AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTH 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE SNAKE VALLEY THIS EVENING SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ALSO NEED TO WATCH A WEAK FEATURE TRACKING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER SE OREGON BY EVENING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
EXPECT A SIMILAR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST OVER S-CENTRAL
IDAHO ZONES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.  THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MONSOON MOISTURE.  MODELS DO NOT HAVE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS TO PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 291512
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
912 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...NEW MODELS TEND TO DECREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL THEREFORE LOWER POPS THESE PERIODS.  WEAK
IMPULSE OFF CALIF MAY REACH HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING BUT MODELS DON/T
MAKE MUCH OF IT.  REST OF CURRENT FORECAST UNCHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
AFTER 18Z UNTIL ABOUT 06Z WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
BASES NEAR 8K-10K FT AGL...OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS MAINLY
EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY...AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTH 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE SNAKE VALLEY THIS EVENING SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ALSO NEED TO WATCH A WEAK FEATURE TRACKING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER SE OREGON BY EVENING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
EXPECT A SIMILAR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST OVER S-CENTRAL
IDAHO ZONES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.  THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MONSOON MOISTURE.  MODELS DO NOT HAVE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS TO PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 291512
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
912 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...NEW MODELS TEND TO DECREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL THEREFORE LOWER POPS THESE PERIODS.  WEAK
IMPULSE OFF CALIF MAY REACH HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING BUT MODELS DON/T
MAKE MUCH OF IT.  REST OF CURRENT FORECAST UNCHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
AFTER 18Z UNTIL ABOUT 06Z WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
BASES NEAR 8K-10K FT AGL...OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS MAINLY
EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY...AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTH 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE SNAKE VALLEY THIS EVENING SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ALSO NEED TO WATCH A WEAK FEATURE TRACKING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER SE OREGON BY EVENING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
EXPECT A SIMILAR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST OVER S-CENTRAL
IDAHO ZONES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.  THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MONSOON MOISTURE.  MODELS DO NOT HAVE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS TO PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS66 KMFR 291021
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
321 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES
AND GREAT BASIN AND WILL REMAIN PARKED THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT LEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HOT WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS
SUBSTANTIAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. MOISTURE HAS YET TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER US, BUT IT WILL BECOME DEEPER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE RATHER VOLATILE CONDITIONS
AND GREATLY INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

TWO OF THE MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND HERE
(INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE) WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS FROM THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES EASTWARD. ALL
THE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE SREF AND SPC LIGHTNING AND
THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE, HIT THESE AREAS ALL WEEK. A THIRD
INGREDIENT (TRIGGER) USUALLY RESULTS IN MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY AND CAN OFTEN GET STORMS OVER ONTO THE WEST SIDE AS WELL.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL THUS BE TO IDENTIFY AND THEN TIME ANY
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUPY SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS, ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A LOT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO THESE WILL BE VERY
IMPORTANT, ESPECIALLY AS WE ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON THE WEST SIDE.

A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING.
A VERY WEAK ONE IS LIKELY MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND MAY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. WHILE THESE CELLS AREN`T DOING ANYTHING
AT THE MOMENT, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL FAIRLY STEEP, SO IT
WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH TO GET THEM GOING. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A
DIFFUSE AREA OF VORTICITY DRIFTING THROUGH TODAY. I DON`T THINK
THIS WILL BE MUCH OF A TRIGGER, AND THERE IS A BIT OF CAP EXPECTED
WEST OF THE CASCADES. BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE.

THERE IS A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COAST
THIS MORNING, WHICH ALREADY HAS ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH IT
(INCLUDING ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE). I`M NOT SURE THIS WAVE IS BEING
HANDLED WELL BY ANY OF THE MODELS, BUT PURE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS IT
HERE TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE WHY THE GFS HOLDS ONTO STORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT ON THE EAST SIDE. I DID EXPAND THE POPS OVER THERE
TONIGHT FOR THAT REASON.

I CAN`T REALLY IDENTIFY ANY PARTICULAR TRIGGER ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
WE OUGHT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
(CURRENTLY AROUND 25N 120W) THAT MAY ARRIVE HERE THURSDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE MODELS ALL HANDLE THIS DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT NORTH TO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND BREAKS OUT A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AS A RESULT, EVEN ON THE WEST SIDE. THE GFS
TAKES IT IN SOUTH AND EAST OF US, WHICH MEANS THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
LIKELY STILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE EAST SIDE. NOT SURE WHICH
TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.

I MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED, BUT HOT UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/00Z TAFS...

WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS AND IFR VIS IN LOW MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST AND THE COQUILLE VALLEY AS WELL
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BACK FROM THE COAST AROUND 19Z. INLAND...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD IN OREGON.
THESE STORMS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT 29 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH SOME
SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND
AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MORESO ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY INCREASE TO GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS LATE
IN THE WEEK FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH.
/SK


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
BEING USHERED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM TWO AREAS. FIRST...A BIG
SWATH OF MOISTURE IS SOURCED FROM A CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH...AND THE SECOND IS FARTHER AWAY...MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
UP FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE
MOISTURE FEEDS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEK AT LEAST.

RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOMORROW...RANGING FROM
0.75 INCHES EAST OF THE CASCADES TO 1 INCH WEST OF THE
CASCADES...INDICATE RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AND MORESO AS
ONE HEADS WEST. OF COURSE LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF STORM
CORES AND THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO START FIRES. STORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREAT GENERALLY EAST OF JOSEPHINE COUNTY...AND REALLY
MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. A RED FLAG WARNING COVERS THIS
THREAT OF LIGHTNING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...AND THUS THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. MOISTURE VALUES DO CREEP UP SOME ON
WEDNESDAY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH THE STORMS.

THURSDAY MAY FEATURE MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...AND
STORM MOTION WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO NORTH...SO THUNDERSTORMS COULD
COVER A BROADER SWATH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621>625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621>625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$







000
FXUS66 KMFR 291021
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
321 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES
AND GREAT BASIN AND WILL REMAIN PARKED THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT LEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HOT WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS
SUBSTANTIAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. MOISTURE HAS YET TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER US, BUT IT WILL BECOME DEEPER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE RATHER VOLATILE CONDITIONS
AND GREATLY INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

TWO OF THE MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND HERE
(INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE) WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS FROM THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES EASTWARD. ALL
THE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE SREF AND SPC LIGHTNING AND
THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE, HIT THESE AREAS ALL WEEK. A THIRD
INGREDIENT (TRIGGER) USUALLY RESULTS IN MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY AND CAN OFTEN GET STORMS OVER ONTO THE WEST SIDE AS WELL.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL THUS BE TO IDENTIFY AND THEN TIME ANY
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUPY SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS, ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A LOT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO THESE WILL BE VERY
IMPORTANT, ESPECIALLY AS WE ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON THE WEST SIDE.

A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING.
A VERY WEAK ONE IS LIKELY MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND MAY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. WHILE THESE CELLS AREN`T DOING ANYTHING
AT THE MOMENT, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL FAIRLY STEEP, SO IT
WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH TO GET THEM GOING. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A
DIFFUSE AREA OF VORTICITY DRIFTING THROUGH TODAY. I DON`T THINK
THIS WILL BE MUCH OF A TRIGGER, AND THERE IS A BIT OF CAP EXPECTED
WEST OF THE CASCADES. BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE.

THERE IS A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COAST
THIS MORNING, WHICH ALREADY HAS ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH IT
(INCLUDING ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE). I`M NOT SURE THIS WAVE IS BEING
HANDLED WELL BY ANY OF THE MODELS, BUT PURE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS IT
HERE TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE WHY THE GFS HOLDS ONTO STORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT ON THE EAST SIDE. I DID EXPAND THE POPS OVER THERE
TONIGHT FOR THAT REASON.

I CAN`T REALLY IDENTIFY ANY PARTICULAR TRIGGER ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
WE OUGHT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
(CURRENTLY AROUND 25N 120W) THAT MAY ARRIVE HERE THURSDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE MODELS ALL HANDLE THIS DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF
BRINGS IT NORTH TO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND BREAKS OUT A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AS A RESULT, EVEN ON THE WEST SIDE. THE GFS
TAKES IT IN SOUTH AND EAST OF US, WHICH MEANS THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
LIKELY STILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE EAST SIDE. NOT SURE WHICH
TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.

I MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED, BUT HOT UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/00Z TAFS...

WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS AND IFR VIS IN LOW MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST AND THE COQUILLE VALLEY AS WELL
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BACK FROM THE COAST AROUND 19Z. INLAND...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD IN OREGON.
THESE STORMS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT 29 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH SOME
SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND
AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MORESO ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY INCREASE TO GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS LATE
IN THE WEEK FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH.
/SK


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
BEING USHERED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM TWO AREAS. FIRST...A BIG
SWATH OF MOISTURE IS SOURCED FROM A CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH...AND THE SECOND IS FARTHER AWAY...MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
UP FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE
MOISTURE FEEDS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEK AT LEAST.

RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOMORROW...RANGING FROM
0.75 INCHES EAST OF THE CASCADES TO 1 INCH WEST OF THE
CASCADES...INDICATE RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AND MORESO AS
ONE HEADS WEST. OF COURSE LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF STORM
CORES AND THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO START FIRES. STORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREAT GENERALLY EAST OF JOSEPHINE COUNTY...AND REALLY
MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. A RED FLAG WARNING COVERS THIS
THREAT OF LIGHTNING.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...AND THUS THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. MOISTURE VALUES DO CREEP UP SOME ON
WEDNESDAY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH THE STORMS.

THURSDAY MAY FEATURE MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...AND
STORM MOTION WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO NORTH...SO THUNDERSTORMS COULD
COVER A BROADER SWATH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621>625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621>625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$








000
FXUS66 KPQR 291009
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
307 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF
THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OREGON CASCADES
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT
IS MORE SOLID...WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS
EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. LIGHT
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE MARINE
LAYER REMAINS SHALLOW UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND IS LIMITED TO
THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TO THE
COAST.MARINE STRATUS SHOULD SEEP FURTHER INLAND AND TRY TO EXTEND
INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR CLOUD
GROWTH UP TO THE -30C LEVEL AND WILL LIKELY NEED THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE A STRONG
CELL COULD DUMP A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN IN A SHORT TIME. THE PATTERN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONE CHANGE IN THE MODELS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
DOWN TO 0.6 INCH FROM 1 INCH OVER YESTERDAYS RUN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG THE S WA AND N AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THIS
COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD BURN BACK OFFSHORE BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND 19-20Z. MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST ALONG KONP...BUT DO EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR AT
LEAST BRIEFLY. COASTAL STRATUS RETURNS AGAIN BY LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY
N WINDS ALONG THE COAST 19Z-03Z. DRY SW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES
SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TAF SITES NEXT
24 HOURS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT N-NW SURFACE WINDS. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...FEW CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE WATERS THIS
WEEK AS N TO NW FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL GIVEN HIGH PRES OVER THE
NE PAC AND A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROF OVER NW CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME SW OREGON. A FEW SUBTLE CHANGES IN SURFACE PRES
GRADIENT...BUT LOOKS LIKE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONGEST OVER THE
INNER WATERS. WITH ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN SURFACE PATTERN FOR
TODAY...MAINTAINED A LARGELY PERSISTENCE BASED FCST FOR WINDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND EXPECT WIND GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO TOP OUT
AROUND 20 KT THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT
GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
ONLY SMALL BACKGROUND SWELL. THUS SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND
DOMINATED THROUGH THE WEEK AND CONDITIONS MAY BE CHOPPY AT
TIMES...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS.   CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
   PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
   TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 290944
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EACH DAY AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S TO
LOWER 100S AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WAITING ON STRONGER SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE LIFT TO GET
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES SEEN
ON SATELLITE FOR THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE WEAK ONES VICINITY OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN HOT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 100-105. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM AS
WELL.  94

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO
DAY SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS LOW.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON
BORDER. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY SINCE EITHER SCENARIO HAS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WITH A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA (GFS) OR NORTH
INTO CANADA (ECMWF) ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE
FORMING OFFSHORE AND MOVING INTO OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON. MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN IDAHO AND MONTANA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH
SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS. COONFIELD

&&

.12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT KBDN AND KRDM IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
EVENING. STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON AFTER
21Z AND COULD IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM UNTIL 05Z. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE OF A STORM AT THESE TWO SITES IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  69  99  67 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 101  72 100  69 /   0   0  10  10
PSC 103  69 103  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 101  67  99  65 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 103  68 101  67 /   0   0  10  10
ELN 100  64  98  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  97  62  95  58 /  10  20  20  20
LGD  99  65  97  61 /  10  20  20  20
GCD  97  65  94  61 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  99  67  97  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/76/76






000
FXUS66 KPDT 290944
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EACH DAY AS SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE 90S TO
LOWER 100S AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WAITING ON STRONGER SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE LIFT TO GET
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES SEEN
ON SATELLITE FOR THE SHORT TERM...A COUPLE WEAK ONES VICINITY OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL REMAIN HOT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 100-105. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM AS
WELL.  94

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY TRIGGER NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION AS WELL. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO
DAY SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS LOW.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON
BORDER. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY SINCE EITHER SCENARIO HAS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WITH A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA (GFS) OR NORTH
INTO CANADA (ECMWF) ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE
FORMING OFFSHORE AND MOVING INTO OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON. MONDAY THE GFS KEEPS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN IDAHO AND MONTANA. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW BOTH
SCENARIOS. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS. COONFIELD

&&

.12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT KBDN AND KRDM IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
EVENING. STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON AFTER
21Z AND COULD IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM UNTIL 05Z. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE OF A STORM AT THESE TWO SITES IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 100  69  99  67 /  10  10  10  10
ALW 101  72 100  69 /   0   0  10  10
PSC 103  69 103  68 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 101  67  99  65 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 103  68 101  67 /   0   0  10  10
ELN 100  64  98  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  97  62  95  58 /  10  20  20  20
LGD  99  65  97  61 /  10  20  20  20
GCD  97  65  94  61 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  99  67  97  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     WAZ028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/76/76







000
FXUS65 KBOI 290920
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
320 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE SNAKE VALLEY THIS EVENING SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ALSO NEED TO WATCH A WEAK FEATURE TRACKING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER SE OREGON BY EVENING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
EXPECT A SIMILAR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST OVER S-CENTRAL
IDAHO ZONES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.  THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MONSOON MOISTURE.  MODELS DO NOT HAVE A RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS TO PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
AFTER 18Z EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP WITH
LOCAL GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  OTHERWISE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 290920
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
320 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE SNAKE VALLEY THIS EVENING SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ALSO NEED TO WATCH A WEAK FEATURE TRACKING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER SE OREGON BY EVENING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
EXPECT A SIMILAR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST OVER S-CENTRAL
IDAHO ZONES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.  THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MONSOON MOISTURE.  MODELS DO NOT HAVE A RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS TO PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
AFTER 18Z EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP WITH
LOCAL GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  OTHERWISE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS66 KPDT 290455 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
950 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING A DECREASE IN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE TSRA WERE REMOVED FROM THE ZONES FOR THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AND THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER AND AFTER 20Z LCL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT TAF SITES
KRDM AND KBDN.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 450 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE ZONES WERE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THIS DURING THE
EVENING. ALSO A FEW TSRA HAD DEVELOPED NEAR EASTERN GRANT COUNTY AND
THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

PREV DISC... /ISSUED 336 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH PLACES THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIPPLES OR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE HIGH.
THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OR SCATTERED. ONE MODEL...THE GFS...IS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY. IF CORRECT THEN THIS COULD BE THE
TRIGGER TO ELEVATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREFER TO WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF IT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS BEFORE ACTING ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN CLOUD COVER WOULD
PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. PREFERRED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AND TWEAK AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO DAY
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO, POSSIBLY FROM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO
COAST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COLUMBIA BASIN DRY. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
SATURDAY AND OUR FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, THE CASCADES AS FAR NORTH AS MOUNT ADAMS AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
PERSISTING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN CENTRAL OREGON OR OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  67 102  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  62 101  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66 101  68 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  60 100  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  46  94  58  94 /  10  10  20  20
LGD  63  95  63  92 /  10  10  20  20
GCD  66  94  66  91 /  10  20  20  20
DLS  65  97  67  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97









000
FXUS66 KPDT 290455 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
950 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING A DECREASE IN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE TSRA WERE REMOVED FROM THE ZONES FOR THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AND THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER AND AFTER 20Z LCL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT TAF SITES
KRDM AND KBDN.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 450 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE ZONES WERE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THIS DURING THE
EVENING. ALSO A FEW TSRA HAD DEVELOPED NEAR EASTERN GRANT COUNTY AND
THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

PREV DISC... /ISSUED 336 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH PLACES THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIPPLES OR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE HIGH.
THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OR SCATTERED. ONE MODEL...THE GFS...IS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY. IF CORRECT THEN THIS COULD BE THE
TRIGGER TO ELEVATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREFER TO WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF IT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS BEFORE ACTING ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN CLOUD COVER WOULD
PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. PREFERRED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AND TWEAK AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO DAY
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO, POSSIBLY FROM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO
COAST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COLUMBIA BASIN DRY. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
SATURDAY AND OUR FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, THE CASCADES AS FAR NORTH AS MOUNT ADAMS AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
PERSISTING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN CENTRAL OREGON OR OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  67 102  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  62 101  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66 101  68 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  60 100  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  46  94  58  94 /  10  10  20  20
LGD  63  95  63  92 /  10  10  20  20
GCD  66  94  66  91 /  10  20  20  20
DLS  65  97  67  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97








000
FXUS66 KPQR 290425
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
925 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF
THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT IS MORE SOLID...WITH A LITTLE
SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.UPDATE...HAD ONE GOOD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
LANE COUNTY AND LASTED FOR THE BETTER PART OF A COUPLE HOURS. PRECIP
ESTIMATES FROM THE MEDFORD RADAR PUT UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ON
THE TUMBLEBUG COMPLEX BURN SCAR FROM 2009. GROUND TRUTH OF 0.54
INCHES AT A NEARBY RAWS AT LEAST GIVES CREDENCE TO THOSE ESTIMATES.
ISSUED A COUPLE NOWCASTS AND HIGHLIGHTED CONCERN FOR SOME LOCALIZED
DEBRIS FLOW COMING OUT OF TUMBLEBUG CREEK AND ECHO CREEK. IF ANY
FLOWS DID OCCUR...THEY ULTIMATELY COULD DRAIN INTO THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE WILLAMETTE MIDDLE FORK. IN OTHER AREAS...THE COASTAL STRATUS
HAS PUSHED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND BRINGING VERY PATCHY FOG WITH
NEWPORT AIRPORT MAINLY REPORTING IN THE 1/2 MILE TO 1 MILE RANGE,
BUT BRIEFLY FALLING BELOW 1/4 MILE A COUPLE HOURS AGO. AS THE SEAS
BREEZE EASES UP THIS EVENING...EXPECT THERE TO BE ADDITIONAL PATCHY
FOG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE DOUBTS
THE STRATUS WILL PUSH VERY FAR INLAND PER SHORT TERM MODEL DATA BUT
WILL GIVE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT IN BRINGING
THE CLOUDS IN TO AROUND KELSO. /JBONK

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 204 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
THAT PRODUCE THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH
500 MB HEIGHTS. A MARINE LAYER HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER RATHER SHALLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME SEEPAGE INLAND THROUGH COASTAL
GAPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ALONG THE COAST BUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND MAY NOT CLEAR BACK OFFSHORE
TOO MUCH MORE. THERE ARE SOME CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON IN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTY...INCLUDING
JUST EAST OF WILLAMETTE PASS. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY BUT NOT SURE WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE ANY
LIGHTNING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE CONTROLLING WEATHER PATTERN IS THE SAME ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. IT WILL STILL BE WARM INLAND WITH TEMPS
CLOSE TO 90. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK ONTO THE COAST FAIRLY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
REMAINING QUITE LOW AND SHALLOW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS LOCALLY
INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO KELSO EARLY
TUESDAY. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE SPREADING
UP FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO
NEAR 1 INCH. THUS EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE OREGON CASCADES...PROBABLY STAYING
SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL TEND
TO BE A BIT DRY...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL...AND
THE GFS MODEL EVEN DEVELOPS A QPF BULLSEYE...POSSIBLY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWS REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH. THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AGAIN.
THE MODELS IMPLY THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME MORE SOLID ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...AND MAY TRY TO EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT
ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST GRIDS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR/VLIFR STRATUS AND FOG PUSHED ONTO THE CENTRAL OR
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IFR/LIFR STRATUS SHOULD ALSO PUSH INTO
THE N OR AND S WA COAST...INCLUDING KAST...BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z.
COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD BURN BACK OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. INLAND SITES TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS AS
HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WITH DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...N/NW FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRES OVER
THE NE PAC AND A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROF OVER NW CALIF AND
FAR SW OREGON. PRES GRADIENTS WILL FLEX FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. DECIDED TO
END THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS
BEGUN TO WEAKEN...BUT ISSUED ANOTHER FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE INNER WATERS.

SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A BIT CHOPPY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WINDS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 290425
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
925 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF
THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT IS MORE SOLID...WITH A LITTLE
SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.UPDATE...HAD ONE GOOD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
LANE COUNTY AND LASTED FOR THE BETTER PART OF A COUPLE HOURS. PRECIP
ESTIMATES FROM THE MEDFORD RADAR PUT UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ON
THE TUMBLEBUG COMPLEX BURN SCAR FROM 2009. GROUND TRUTH OF 0.54
INCHES AT A NEARBY RAWS AT LEAST GIVES CREDENCE TO THOSE ESTIMATES.
ISSUED A COUPLE NOWCASTS AND HIGHLIGHTED CONCERN FOR SOME LOCALIZED
DEBRIS FLOW COMING OUT OF TUMBLEBUG CREEK AND ECHO CREEK. IF ANY
FLOWS DID OCCUR...THEY ULTIMATELY COULD DRAIN INTO THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE WILLAMETTE MIDDLE FORK. IN OTHER AREAS...THE COASTAL STRATUS
HAS PUSHED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND BRINGING VERY PATCHY FOG WITH
NEWPORT AIRPORT MAINLY REPORTING IN THE 1/2 MILE TO 1 MILE RANGE,
BUT BRIEFLY FALLING BELOW 1/4 MILE A COUPLE HOURS AGO. AS THE SEAS
BREEZE EASES UP THIS EVENING...EXPECT THERE TO BE ADDITIONAL PATCHY
FOG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE DOUBTS
THE STRATUS WILL PUSH VERY FAR INLAND PER SHORT TERM MODEL DATA BUT
WILL GIVE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT IN BRINGING
THE CLOUDS IN TO AROUND KELSO. /JBONK

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 204 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES
THAT PRODUCE THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH
500 MB HEIGHTS. A MARINE LAYER HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER RATHER SHALLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME SEEPAGE INLAND THROUGH COASTAL
GAPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ALONG THE COAST BUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND MAY NOT CLEAR BACK OFFSHORE
TOO MUCH MORE. THERE ARE SOME CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON IN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTY...INCLUDING
JUST EAST OF WILLAMETTE PASS. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY BUT NOT SURE WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE ANY
LIGHTNING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE CONTROLLING WEATHER PATTERN IS THE SAME ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. IT WILL STILL BE WARM INLAND WITH TEMPS
CLOSE TO 90. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK ONTO THE COAST FAIRLY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
REMAINING QUITE LOW AND SHALLOW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS LOCALLY
INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO KELSO EARLY
TUESDAY. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE SPREADING
UP FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO
NEAR 1 INCH. THUS EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE OREGON CASCADES...PROBABLY STAYING
SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL TEND
TO BE A BIT DRY...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL...AND
THE GFS MODEL EVEN DEVELOPS A QPF BULLSEYE...POSSIBLY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWS REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH. THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AGAIN.
THE MODELS IMPLY THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME MORE SOLID ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...AND MAY TRY TO EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT
ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST GRIDS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. TOLLESON

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
SHORTWAVES AS MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR/VLIFR STRATUS AND FOG PUSHED ONTO THE CENTRAL OR
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IFR/LIFR STRATUS SHOULD ALSO PUSH INTO
THE N OR AND S WA COAST...INCLUDING KAST...BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z.
COASTAL STRATUS SHOULD BURN BACK OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. INLAND SITES TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS AS
HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER THE REGION...WITH DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...N/NW FLOW REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRES OVER
THE NE PAC AND A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROF OVER NW CALIF AND
FAR SW OREGON. PRES GRADIENTS WILL FLEX FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. DECIDED TO
END THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS
BEGUN TO WEAKEN...BUT ISSUED ANOTHER FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE INNER WATERS.

SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A BIT CHOPPY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WINDS. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 290337
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
837 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...THIS WAS THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR IN
MEDFORD WITH A HIGH OF 106 THAT TOPPED THE 105 ON JULY 1ST. BUT,
IT STILL CAME UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN
2009. IN FACT, THE ONLY RECORD TODAY WAS A TIE IN MT SHASTA CITY.
IT WAS ALSO 98 DEGREES THERE ON THIS DATE IN 2009. THE DEARTH OF
RECORDS DESPITE THE HEAT INLAND IS NOT THAT SURPRISING CONSIDERING
THAT ON AVERAGE THE LAST WEEK OF JULY AND FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST
ARE OUR HOTTEST TWO WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, MOST NOTABLE WERE A LONG-LASTING
CELL ALONG THE NORTHEAST DOUGLAS/SOUTHEAST LANE COUNTY BORDER AND
ANOTHER IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST SISKIYOU COUNTY. THIS SPARSE ACTIVITY
IS NOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH WITH SEVERAL CELLS EAST OF THE
CASCADES THAT ARE LIKELY ONLY PRODUCING VIRGA. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING IS ON THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST. THE 00Z NAM
DATA HAS JUST ARRIVED. ONCE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE 00Z GFS
DATA ALSO HAS ARRIVED, WE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A DETERMINATION ON
UPGRADING OR ADJUSTING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THIS WATCH IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING ROUGHLY FROM THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. THE NEW NAM
DATA IS VERY SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN WITH A FORECAST OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED FROM MOUNT SHASTA NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
THE 18Z GFS AND INCLUDES SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGER
AREA...STRETCHING FARTHER WEST...FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
ACROSS THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY TO THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS THEN ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. BOTH
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON HIGHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND
AN AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTHWARD THAT WOULD SUPPORT A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO THIS
PAST AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/00Z TAFS...

AREAS OF LIFR CIGS IN LOW MARINE STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ALONG THE
DOUGLAS, COOS, AND CURRY COUNTY COAST AFTER 03Z AND PUSHING INTO
THE COQUILLE VALLEY AS WELL. AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL
ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST
AS FOG DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BACK
FROM THE COAST AROUND 19Z. INLAND...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED CUMULUS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THAT WILL BE DISSIPATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS
EASTWARD IN OREGON. THESE STORMS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 PM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND
AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO  AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THEN WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
INCREASE TO GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS LATE IN THE WEEK FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE CASCADES BEING
DENSEST FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY.THE MARBLE
MOUNTAINS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY ARE ALSO SEEING MORE CU BUILDUP.
THERE IS STILL SOME CAPPING IN THOSE AREAS BUT IT COULD BE BROKEN
TOWARD THE EVENING. AS A RESULT EXPECT SOME OF THESE CU TO BUILD
INTO THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
EVENING.

ON TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE
MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO MORE THAN ONE INCH.
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUEL FOR
MANY OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES FOR TUESDAY. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION APPEARS TO BE FROM THE KLAMATH BASIN AND THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY. PART OF SE JACKSON
COUNTY MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT THE ROGUE VALLEY ITSELF.

THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADE EAST. WHILE MODELS INDICATE LESS
DYNAMICS FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA..I DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH
AND HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ALBEIT ONLY AS ISOLATED COVERAGE. /FB

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WESTWARD BACK TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NW. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOW IN LINE WITH HIGHER
850HPA TEMPERATURE NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING CAPE MENDOCINO CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY. THIS
PUT OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND FOR
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /FB


FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE GREATEST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST...EASTSIDE AND IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. STORM MOVEMENT ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND COULD BE SLOW MOVERS WITH 700 MB WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND PAINTS OUT HIGHER QPF IN
MODOC AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SUGGEST STORMS COULD LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND EC
SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND ARE WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SUGGEST
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THINGS DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE GFS
SOLUTION, THEN IT`S POSSIBLE THE WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING (IF
UPGRADED) COULD EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY, BUT THE MODELS HINT THAT
MUCH OF THE ACTION WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH
THAT SAID, WE`LL STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND EASTERN MODOC BECAUSE THE DETAILS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE. THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING, LOCATION, TRACK
OF THE SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY.

GIVEN CONTINUED DRY FUELS CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL, NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS ARE LIKELY. THESE STARTS MAY,
INITIALLY, PRESENT A FIRE SPREAD PROBLEM, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME TIME TO FIND THEM BEFORE FIRES GET BIG. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ617-621>625.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/CC






000
FXUS66 KMFR 290337
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
837 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...THIS WAS THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR IN
MEDFORD WITH A HIGH OF 106 THAT TOPPED THE 105 ON JULY 1ST. BUT,
IT STILL CAME UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN
2009. IN FACT, THE ONLY RECORD TODAY WAS A TIE IN MT SHASTA CITY.
IT WAS ALSO 98 DEGREES THERE ON THIS DATE IN 2009. THE DEARTH OF
RECORDS DESPITE THE HEAT INLAND IS NOT THAT SURPRISING CONSIDERING
THAT ON AVERAGE THE LAST WEEK OF JULY AND FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST
ARE OUR HOTTEST TWO WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, MOST NOTABLE WERE A LONG-LASTING
CELL ALONG THE NORTHEAST DOUGLAS/SOUTHEAST LANE COUNTY BORDER AND
ANOTHER IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST SISKIYOU COUNTY. THIS SPARSE ACTIVITY
IS NOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH WITH SEVERAL CELLS EAST OF THE
CASCADES THAT ARE LIKELY ONLY PRODUCING VIRGA. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING IS ON THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST. THE 00Z NAM
DATA HAS JUST ARRIVED. ONCE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE 00Z GFS
DATA ALSO HAS ARRIVED, WE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A DETERMINATION ON
UPGRADING OR ADJUSTING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THIS WATCH IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING ROUGHLY FROM THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. THE NEW NAM
DATA IS VERY SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN WITH A FORECAST OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED FROM MOUNT SHASTA NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
THE 18Z GFS AND INCLUDES SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGER
AREA...STRETCHING FARTHER WEST...FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
ACROSS THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY TO THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS THEN ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. BOTH
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON HIGHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND
AN AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTHWARD THAT WOULD SUPPORT A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO THIS
PAST AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/00Z TAFS...

AREAS OF LIFR CIGS IN LOW MARINE STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ALONG THE
DOUGLAS, COOS, AND CURRY COUNTY COAST AFTER 03Z AND PUSHING INTO
THE COQUILLE VALLEY AS WELL. AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL
ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST
AS FOG DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BACK
FROM THE COAST AROUND 19Z. INLAND...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED CUMULUS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THAT WILL BE DISSIPATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS
EASTWARD IN OREGON. THESE STORMS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 PM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND
AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO  AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THEN WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
INCREASE TO GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS LATE IN THE WEEK FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE CASCADES BEING
DENSEST FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY.THE MARBLE
MOUNTAINS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY ARE ALSO SEEING MORE CU BUILDUP.
THERE IS STILL SOME CAPPING IN THOSE AREAS BUT IT COULD BE BROKEN
TOWARD THE EVENING. AS A RESULT EXPECT SOME OF THESE CU TO BUILD
INTO THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
EVENING.

ON TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE
MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO MORE THAN ONE INCH.
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUEL FOR
MANY OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES FOR TUESDAY. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION APPEARS TO BE FROM THE KLAMATH BASIN AND THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY. PART OF SE JACKSON
COUNTY MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT THE ROGUE VALLEY ITSELF.

THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADE EAST. WHILE MODELS INDICATE LESS
DYNAMICS FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA..I DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH
AND HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ALBEIT ONLY AS ISOLATED COVERAGE. /FB

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WESTWARD BACK TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NW. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOW IN LINE WITH HIGHER
850HPA TEMPERATURE NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING CAPE MENDOCINO CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY. THIS
PUT OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND FOR
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /FB


FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE GREATEST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST...EASTSIDE AND IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. STORM MOVEMENT ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND COULD BE SLOW MOVERS WITH 700 MB WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND PAINTS OUT HIGHER QPF IN
MODOC AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SUGGEST STORMS COULD LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND EC
SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND ARE WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SUGGEST
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THINGS DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE GFS
SOLUTION, THEN IT`S POSSIBLE THE WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING (IF
UPGRADED) COULD EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY, BUT THE MODELS HINT THAT
MUCH OF THE ACTION WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH
THAT SAID, WE`LL STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND EASTERN MODOC BECAUSE THE DETAILS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE. THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING, LOCATION, TRACK
OF THE SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY.

GIVEN CONTINUED DRY FUELS CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL, NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS ARE LIKELY. THESE STARTS MAY,
INITIALLY, PRESENT A FIRE SPREAD PROBLEM, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME TIME TO FIND THEM BEFORE FIRES GET BIG. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ617-621>625.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/CC






000
FXUS66 KMFR 290337
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
837 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...THIS WAS THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR IN
MEDFORD WITH A HIGH OF 106 THAT TOPPED THE 105 ON JULY 1ST. BUT,
IT STILL CAME UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN
2009. IN FACT, THE ONLY RECORD TODAY WAS A TIE IN MT SHASTA CITY.
IT WAS ALSO 98 DEGREES THERE ON THIS DATE IN 2009. THE DEARTH OF
RECORDS DESPITE THE HEAT INLAND IS NOT THAT SURPRISING CONSIDERING
THAT ON AVERAGE THE LAST WEEK OF JULY AND FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST
ARE OUR HOTTEST TWO WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, MOST NOTABLE WERE A LONG-LASTING
CELL ALONG THE NORTHEAST DOUGLAS/SOUTHEAST LANE COUNTY BORDER AND
ANOTHER IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST SISKIYOU COUNTY. THIS SPARSE ACTIVITY
IS NOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH WITH SEVERAL CELLS EAST OF THE
CASCADES THAT ARE LIKELY ONLY PRODUCING VIRGA. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING IS ON THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST. THE 00Z NAM
DATA HAS JUST ARRIVED. ONCE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE 00Z GFS
DATA ALSO HAS ARRIVED, WE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A DETERMINATION ON
UPGRADING OR ADJUSTING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THIS WATCH IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING ROUGHLY FROM THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. THE NEW NAM
DATA IS VERY SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN WITH A FORECAST OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED FROM MOUNT SHASTA NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
THE 18Z GFS AND INCLUDES SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGER
AREA...STRETCHING FARTHER WEST...FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
ACROSS THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY TO THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS THEN ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. BOTH
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON HIGHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND
AN AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTHWARD THAT WOULD SUPPORT A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO THIS
PAST AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/00Z TAFS...

AREAS OF LIFR CIGS IN LOW MARINE STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ALONG THE
DOUGLAS, COOS, AND CURRY COUNTY COAST AFTER 03Z AND PUSHING INTO
THE COQUILLE VALLEY AS WELL. AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL
ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST
AS FOG DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BACK
FROM THE COAST AROUND 19Z. INLAND...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED CUMULUS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THAT WILL BE DISSIPATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS
EASTWARD IN OREGON. THESE STORMS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 PM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND
AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO  AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THEN WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
INCREASE TO GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS LATE IN THE WEEK FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE CASCADES BEING
DENSEST FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY.THE MARBLE
MOUNTAINS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY ARE ALSO SEEING MORE CU BUILDUP.
THERE IS STILL SOME CAPPING IN THOSE AREAS BUT IT COULD BE BROKEN
TOWARD THE EVENING. AS A RESULT EXPECT SOME OF THESE CU TO BUILD
INTO THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
EVENING.

ON TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE
MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO MORE THAN ONE INCH.
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUEL FOR
MANY OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES FOR TUESDAY. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION APPEARS TO BE FROM THE KLAMATH BASIN AND THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY. PART OF SE JACKSON
COUNTY MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT THE ROGUE VALLEY ITSELF.

THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADE EAST. WHILE MODELS INDICATE LESS
DYNAMICS FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA..I DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH
AND HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ALBEIT ONLY AS ISOLATED COVERAGE. /FB

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WESTWARD BACK TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NW. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOW IN LINE WITH HIGHER
850HPA TEMPERATURE NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING CAPE MENDOCINO CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY. THIS
PUT OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND FOR
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /FB


FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE GREATEST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST...EASTSIDE AND IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. STORM MOVEMENT ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND COULD BE SLOW MOVERS WITH 700 MB WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND PAINTS OUT HIGHER QPF IN
MODOC AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SUGGEST STORMS COULD LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND EC
SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND ARE WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SUGGEST
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THINGS DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE GFS
SOLUTION, THEN IT`S POSSIBLE THE WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING (IF
UPGRADED) COULD EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY, BUT THE MODELS HINT THAT
MUCH OF THE ACTION WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH
THAT SAID, WE`LL STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND EASTERN MODOC BECAUSE THE DETAILS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE. THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING, LOCATION, TRACK
OF THE SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY.

GIVEN CONTINUED DRY FUELS CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL, NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS ARE LIKELY. THESE STARTS MAY,
INITIALLY, PRESENT A FIRE SPREAD PROBLEM, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME TIME TO FIND THEM BEFORE FIRES GET BIG. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ617-621>625.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/CC






000
FXUS66 KMFR 290337
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
837 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...THIS WAS THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR IN
MEDFORD WITH A HIGH OF 106 THAT TOPPED THE 105 ON JULY 1ST. BUT,
IT STILL CAME UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN
2009. IN FACT, THE ONLY RECORD TODAY WAS A TIE IN MT SHASTA CITY.
IT WAS ALSO 98 DEGREES THERE ON THIS DATE IN 2009. THE DEARTH OF
RECORDS DESPITE THE HEAT INLAND IS NOT THAT SURPRISING CONSIDERING
THAT ON AVERAGE THE LAST WEEK OF JULY AND FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST
ARE OUR HOTTEST TWO WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, MOST NOTABLE WERE A LONG-LASTING
CELL ALONG THE NORTHEAST DOUGLAS/SOUTHEAST LANE COUNTY BORDER AND
ANOTHER IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST SISKIYOU COUNTY. THIS SPARSE ACTIVITY
IS NOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH WITH SEVERAL CELLS EAST OF THE
CASCADES THAT ARE LIKELY ONLY PRODUCING VIRGA. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING IS ON THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST. THE 00Z NAM
DATA HAS JUST ARRIVED. ONCE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE 00Z GFS
DATA ALSO HAS ARRIVED, WE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A DETERMINATION ON
UPGRADING OR ADJUSTING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THIS WATCH IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING ROUGHLY FROM THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. THE NEW NAM
DATA IS VERY SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN WITH A FORECAST OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED FROM MOUNT SHASTA NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
THE 18Z GFS AND INCLUDES SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGER
AREA...STRETCHING FARTHER WEST...FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
ACROSS THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY TO THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS THEN ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. BOTH
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON HIGHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND
AN AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTHWARD THAT WOULD SUPPORT A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO THIS
PAST AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/00Z TAFS...

AREAS OF LIFR CIGS IN LOW MARINE STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ALONG THE
DOUGLAS, COOS, AND CURRY COUNTY COAST AFTER 03Z AND PUSHING INTO
THE COQUILLE VALLEY AS WELL. AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL
ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST
AS FOG DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BACK
FROM THE COAST AROUND 19Z. INLAND...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED CUMULUS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THAT WILL BE DISSIPATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS
EASTWARD IN OREGON. THESE STORMS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 PM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND
AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO  AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THEN WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
INCREASE TO GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS LATE IN THE WEEK FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE CASCADES BEING
DENSEST FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY.THE MARBLE
MOUNTAINS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY ARE ALSO SEEING MORE CU BUILDUP.
THERE IS STILL SOME CAPPING IN THOSE AREAS BUT IT COULD BE BROKEN
TOWARD THE EVENING. AS A RESULT EXPECT SOME OF THESE CU TO BUILD
INTO THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
EVENING.

ON TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE
MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO MORE THAN ONE INCH.
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUEL FOR
MANY OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES FOR TUESDAY. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION APPEARS TO BE FROM THE KLAMATH BASIN AND THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY. PART OF SE JACKSON
COUNTY MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT THE ROGUE VALLEY ITSELF.

THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADE EAST. WHILE MODELS INDICATE LESS
DYNAMICS FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA..I DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH
AND HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ALBEIT ONLY AS ISOLATED COVERAGE. /FB

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WESTWARD BACK TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NW. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOW IN LINE WITH HIGHER
850HPA TEMPERATURE NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING CAPE MENDOCINO CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY. THIS
PUT OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND FOR
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /FB


FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE GREATEST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST...EASTSIDE AND IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. STORM MOVEMENT ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND COULD BE SLOW MOVERS WITH 700 MB WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND PAINTS OUT HIGHER QPF IN
MODOC AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SUGGEST STORMS COULD LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND EC
SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND ARE WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SUGGEST
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THINGS DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE GFS
SOLUTION, THEN IT`S POSSIBLE THE WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING (IF
UPGRADED) COULD EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY, BUT THE MODELS HINT THAT
MUCH OF THE ACTION WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH
THAT SAID, WE`LL STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND EASTERN MODOC BECAUSE THE DETAILS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE. THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING, LOCATION, TRACK
OF THE SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY.

GIVEN CONTINUED DRY FUELS CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL, NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS ARE LIKELY. THESE STARTS MAY,
INITIALLY, PRESENT A FIRE SPREAD PROBLEM, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME TIME TO FIND THEM BEFORE FIRES GET BIG. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ617-621>625.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/CC






000
FXUS65 KBOI 290241
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
841 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...NAMELY...OVER BOISE AND ELMORE COUNTIES...OWYHEE
COUNTY...AND VALLEY COUNTY. THE STRONGEST STORMS AS OF 830 PM MDT
WERE IN SOUTHEAST BOISE COUNTY MOVING SE INTO ELMORE COUNTY. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS MOVING ALONG WITH THE CONVECTION...HELPING TO
STRENGTHEN AND INITIATE CONVECTION. SOME PORTION OF THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL BE HEADED TOWARD BOISE THROUGH 9 PM MDT. GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE ANTICIPATED.

THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING SUN AND WE EXPECT
ALMOST ALL THE ACTIVITY WILL BE GONE BY 11 PM MDT. THIS IS HANDLED
WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...MOSTLY CLOUDY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER
18Z WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS...AFTER 16Z WESTERLY 10 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KTS UP THRU 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...MONSOON MOISTURE IS MAINLY AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR HAVE BEEN WEAK SO FAR AND THE AIR MASS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY /BUT SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK/ FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
NEAR MINUS 4 OVER ABOUT HALF OUR CWA INCLUDING SRN HARNEY AND
MALHEUR COUNTIES...THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...TREASURE VALLEY...AND
THE BOISE MOUNTAINS.  OUR NWRN ZONES WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE...
WHILE OUR SERN ZONES MAY BE TOO CLOUDY AND NOT AS UNSTABLE.  DUE
TO CLOUDS...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY AND
COOLER AGAIN WEDNESDAY.  NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WARM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS FORESEEN BY THE MODELS...WITH THE VERY WARM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
..A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR ADVECTING MONSOON MOISTURE OVER OUR
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE HEATING...PLUS ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THESE
DISTURBANCES IS BELOW AVERAGE. AS USUAL THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....RD
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 290241
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
841 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...NAMELY...OVER BOISE AND ELMORE COUNTIES...OWYHEE
COUNTY...AND VALLEY COUNTY. THE STRONGEST STORMS AS OF 830 PM MDT
WERE IN SOUTHEAST BOISE COUNTY MOVING SE INTO ELMORE COUNTY. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS MOVING ALONG WITH THE CONVECTION...HELPING TO
STRENGTHEN AND INITIATE CONVECTION. SOME PORTION OF THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL BE HEADED TOWARD BOISE THROUGH 9 PM MDT. GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE ANTICIPATED.

THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING SUN AND WE EXPECT
ALMOST ALL THE ACTIVITY WILL BE GONE BY 11 PM MDT. THIS IS HANDLED
WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...MOSTLY CLOUDY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER
18Z WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS...AFTER 16Z WESTERLY 10 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KTS UP THRU 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...MONSOON MOISTURE IS MAINLY AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR HAVE BEEN WEAK SO FAR AND THE AIR MASS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY /BUT SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK/ FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
NEAR MINUS 4 OVER ABOUT HALF OUR CWA INCLUDING SRN HARNEY AND
MALHEUR COUNTIES...THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...TREASURE VALLEY...AND
THE BOISE MOUNTAINS.  OUR NWRN ZONES WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE...
WHILE OUR SERN ZONES MAY BE TOO CLOUDY AND NOT AS UNSTABLE.  DUE
TO CLOUDS...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY AND
COOLER AGAIN WEDNESDAY.  NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WARM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS FORESEEN BY THE MODELS...WITH THE VERY WARM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
..A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR ADVECTING MONSOON MOISTURE OVER OUR
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE HEATING...PLUS ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THESE
DISTURBANCES IS BELOW AVERAGE. AS USUAL THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....RD
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS66 KPDT 282355 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
450 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE ZONES WERE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THIS DURING THE
EVENING. ALSO A FEW TSRA HAD DEVELOPED NEAR EASTERN GRANT COUNTY AND
THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 336 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH PLACES THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIPPLES OR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE HIGH.
THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OR SCATTERED. ONE MODEL...THE GFS...IS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY. IF CORRECT THEN THIS COULD BE THE
TRIGGER TO ELEVATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREFER TO WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF IT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS BEFORE ACTING ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN CLOUD COVER WOULD
PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. PREFERRED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AND TWEAK AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO DAY
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO, POSSIBLY FROM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO
COAST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COLUMBIA BASIN DRY. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
SATURDAY AND OUR FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, THE CASCADES AS FAR NORTH AS MOUNT ADAMS AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
PERSISTING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW. AN EXCEPTION
WILL BE FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL AT KBDN AND
KRDM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KBDN AND KRDM, BUT THE PROBABILITY WAS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THOSE TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERRY

FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN CENTRAL OREGON OR OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  67 102  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  62 101  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66 101  68 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  60 100  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  46  94  58  94 /  20  10  20  20
LGD  63  95  63  92 /  20  10  20  20
GCD  66  94  66  91 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  65  97  67  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/








000
FXUS66 KPDT 282355 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
450 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE ZONES WERE UPDATED TO INCLUDE THIS DURING THE
EVENING. ALSO A FEW TSRA HAD DEVELOPED NEAR EASTERN GRANT COUNTY AND
THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 336 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH PLACES THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIPPLES OR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE HIGH.
THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OR SCATTERED. ONE MODEL...THE GFS...IS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY. IF CORRECT THEN THIS COULD BE THE
TRIGGER TO ELEVATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREFER TO WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF IT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS BEFORE ACTING ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN CLOUD COVER WOULD
PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. PREFERRED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AND TWEAK AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO DAY
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO, POSSIBLY FROM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO
COAST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COLUMBIA BASIN DRY. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
SATURDAY AND OUR FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, THE CASCADES AS FAR NORTH AS MOUNT ADAMS AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
PERSISTING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW. AN EXCEPTION
WILL BE FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL AT KBDN AND
KRDM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KBDN AND KRDM, BUT THE PROBABILITY WAS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THOSE TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERRY

FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN CENTRAL OREGON OR OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  67 102  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  62 101  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66 101  68 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  60 100  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  46  94  58  94 /  20  10  20  20
LGD  63  95  63  92 /  20  10  20  20
GCD  66  94  66  91 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  65  97  67  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/









000
FXUS66 KPDT 282236 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
336 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH PLACES THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIPPLES OR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE HIGH.
THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OR SCATTERED. ONE MODEL...THE GFS...IS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY. IF CORRECT THEN THIS COULD BE THE
TRIGGER TO ELEVATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREFER TO WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF IT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS BEFORE ACTING ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN CLOUD COVER WOULD
PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. PREFERRED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AND TWEAK AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO DAY
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO, POSSIBLY FROM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO
COAST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COLUMBIA BASIN DRY. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
SATURDAY AND OUR FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, THE CASCADES AS FAR NORTH AS MOUNT ADAMS AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
PERSISTING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW. AN EXCEPTION
WILL BE FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL AT KBDN AND
KRDM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KBDN AND KRDM, BUT THE PROBABILITY WAS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THOSE TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERRY


&&

.FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN CENTRAL OREGON OR OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  67 102  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  62 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66 101  68 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  60  96  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  46  94  58  94 /  10  10  20  20
LGD  63  94  63  92 /  20  10  20  20
GCD  66  94  66  91 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  65  96  67  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83












000
FXUS66 KPDT 282236 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
336 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH PLACES THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIPPLES OR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE HIGH.
THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OR SCATTERED. ONE MODEL...THE GFS...IS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY. IF CORRECT THEN THIS COULD BE THE
TRIGGER TO ELEVATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREFER TO WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF IT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS BEFORE ACTING ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN CLOUD COVER WOULD
PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. PREFERRED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AND TWEAK AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO DAY
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO, POSSIBLY FROM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO
COAST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COLUMBIA BASIN DRY. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
SATURDAY AND OUR FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, THE CASCADES AS FAR NORTH AS MOUNT ADAMS AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
PERSISTING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW. AN EXCEPTION
WILL BE FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL AT KBDN AND
KRDM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KBDN AND KRDM, BUT THE PROBABILITY WAS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THOSE TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERRY


&&

.FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN CENTRAL OREGON OR OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  67 102  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  62 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66 101  68 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  60  96  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  46  94  58  94 /  10  10  20  20
LGD  63  94  63  92 /  20  10  20  20
GCD  66  94  66  91 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  65  96  67  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83











000
FXUS66 KMFR 282156
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
256 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE CASCADES BEING
DENSEST FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY.THE MARBLE
MOUNTAINS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY ARE ALSO SEEING MORE CU BUILDUP.
THERE IS STILL SOME CAPPING IN THOSE AREAS BUT IT COULD BE BROKEN
TOWARD THE EVENING. AS A RESULT EXPECT SOME OF THESE CU TO BUILD
INTO THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
EVENING.

ON TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE
MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO MORE THAN ONE INCH.
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUEL FOR
MANY OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES FOR TUESDAY. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION APPEARS TO BE FROM THE KLAMATH BASIN AND THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY. PART OF SE JACKSON
COUNTY MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT THE ROGUE VALLEY ITSELF.

THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADE EAST. WHILE MODELS INDICATE LESS
DYNAMICS FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA..I DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH
AND HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ALBEIT ONLY AS ISOLATED COVERAGE. /FB

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WESTWARD BACK TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NW. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOW IN LINE WITH HIGHER
850HPA TEMPERATURE NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING CAPE MENDOCINO CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY. THIS
PUT OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND FOR
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/18Z TAFS...

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS HUGGING ALONG THE
COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. RIGHT NOW, IT`S JUST WEST OF KOTH, BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE THE STRATUS COULD MOVE IN AND OUT OF THE AREA INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE REMAINING OVERHEAD AFTER 0Z. THE TAF SHOWS
VFR BEING THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION PRIOR TO THEN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MODERATE IT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CUMULUS BUILDUPS
DISSIPATING BETWEEN 3-5Z. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES FOOTHILLS
EASTWARD IN OREGON AND IN MODOC COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE GREATEST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST...EASTSIDE AND IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. STORM MOVEMENT ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND COULD BE SLOW MOVERS WITH 700 MB WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND PAINTS OUT HIGHER QPF IN
MODOC AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SUGGEST STORMS COULD LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND EC
SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND ARE WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SUGGEST
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THINGS DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE GFS
SOLUTION, THEN IT`S POSSIBLE THE WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING (IF
UPGRADED) COULD EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY, BUT THE MODELS HINT THAT
MUCH OF THE ACTION WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH
THAT SAID, WE`LL STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND EASTERN MODOC BECAUSE THE DETAILS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE. THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING, LOCATION, TRACK
OF THE SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY.

GIVEN CONTINUED DRY FUELS CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL, NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS ARE LIKELY. THESE STARTS MAY,
INITIALLY, PRESENT A FIRE SPREAD PROBLEM, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME TIME TO FIND THEM BEFORE FIRES GET BIG -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ617-621>625.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/MAP







000
FXUS66 KMFR 282156
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
256 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE CASCADES BEING
DENSEST FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY.THE MARBLE
MOUNTAINS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY ARE ALSO SEEING MORE CU BUILDUP.
THERE IS STILL SOME CAPPING IN THOSE AREAS BUT IT COULD BE BROKEN
TOWARD THE EVENING. AS A RESULT EXPECT SOME OF THESE CU TO BUILD
INTO THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
EVENING.

ON TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE
MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO MORE THAN ONE INCH.
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUEL FOR
MANY OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES FOR TUESDAY. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION APPEARS TO BE FROM THE KLAMATH BASIN AND THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY. PART OF SE JACKSON
COUNTY MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT THE ROGUE VALLEY ITSELF.

THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADE EAST. WHILE MODELS INDICATE LESS
DYNAMICS FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA..I DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH
AND HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ALBEIT ONLY AS ISOLATED COVERAGE. /FB

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WESTWARD BACK TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NW. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOW IN LINE WITH HIGHER
850HPA TEMPERATURE NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING CAPE MENDOCINO CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY. THIS
PUT OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND FOR
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/18Z TAFS...

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS HUGGING ALONG THE
COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. RIGHT NOW, IT`S JUST WEST OF KOTH, BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE THE STRATUS COULD MOVE IN AND OUT OF THE AREA INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE REMAINING OVERHEAD AFTER 0Z. THE TAF SHOWS
VFR BEING THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION PRIOR TO THEN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MODERATE IT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CUMULUS BUILDUPS
DISSIPATING BETWEEN 3-5Z. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES FOOTHILLS
EASTWARD IN OREGON AND IN MODOC COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE GREATEST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST...EASTSIDE AND IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. STORM MOVEMENT ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND COULD BE SLOW MOVERS WITH 700 MB WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND PAINTS OUT HIGHER QPF IN
MODOC AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SUGGEST STORMS COULD LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND EC
SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND ARE WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SUGGEST
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THINGS DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE GFS
SOLUTION, THEN IT`S POSSIBLE THE WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING (IF
UPGRADED) COULD EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY, BUT THE MODELS HINT THAT
MUCH OF THE ACTION WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH
THAT SAID, WE`LL STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND EASTERN MODOC BECAUSE THE DETAILS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE. THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING, LOCATION, TRACK
OF THE SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY.

GIVEN CONTINUED DRY FUELS CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL, NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS ARE LIKELY. THESE STARTS MAY,
INITIALLY, PRESENT A FIRE SPREAD PROBLEM, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME TIME TO FIND THEM BEFORE FIRES GET BIG -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ617-621>625.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/MAP






000
FXUS66 KPDT 282129
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH PLACES THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIPPLES OR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE HIGH.
THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OR SCATTERED. ONE MODEL...THE GFS...IS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY. IF CORRECT THEN THIS COULD BE THE
TRIGGER TO ELEVATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREFER TO WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF IT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS BEFORE ACTING ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN CLOUD COVER WOULD
PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. PREFERRED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AND TWEAK AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO DAY
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO, POSSIBLY FROM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO
COAST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COLUMBIA BASIN DRY. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
SATURDAY AND OUR FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, THE CASCADES AS FAR NORTH AS MOUNT ADAMS AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
PERSISTING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY.
FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL IS POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z AT KBDN AND KRDM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KBDN AND KRDM, BUT THE PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THOSE
TAFS. FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PERRY


&&

.FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN CENTRAL OREGON OR OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  67 102  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  62 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66 101  68 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  60  96  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  46  94  58  94 /  10  10  20  20
LGD  63  94  63  92 /  20  10  20  20
GCD  66  94  66  91 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  65  96  67  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83









000
FXUS66 KPDT 282129
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH PLACES THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIPPLES OR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE HIGH.
THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OR SCATTERED. ONE MODEL...THE GFS...IS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY. IF CORRECT THEN THIS COULD BE THE
TRIGGER TO ELEVATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREFER TO WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF IT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS BEFORE ACTING ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN CLOUD COVER WOULD
PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. PREFERRED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AND TWEAK AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO DAY
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO, POSSIBLY FROM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO
COAST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COLUMBIA BASIN DRY. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
SATURDAY AND OUR FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, THE CASCADES AS FAR NORTH AS MOUNT ADAMS AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
PERSISTING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY.
FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL IS POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z AT KBDN AND KRDM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KBDN AND KRDM, BUT THE PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THOSE
TAFS. FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PERRY


&&

.FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN CENTRAL OREGON OR OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  67 102  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  62 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66 101  68 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  60  96  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  46  94  58  94 /  10  10  20  20
LGD  63  94  63  92 /  20  10  20  20
GCD  66  94  66  91 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  65  96  67  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83









000
FXUS66 KPDT 282129
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH PLACES THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIPPLES OR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE HIGH.
THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OR SCATTERED. ONE MODEL...THE GFS...IS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY. IF CORRECT THEN THIS COULD BE THE
TRIGGER TO ELEVATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREFER TO WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF IT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS BEFORE ACTING ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN CLOUD COVER WOULD
PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. PREFERRED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AND TWEAK AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO DAY
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO, POSSIBLY FROM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO
COAST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COLUMBIA BASIN DRY. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
SATURDAY AND OUR FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, THE CASCADES AS FAR NORTH AS MOUNT ADAMS AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
PERSISTING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY.
FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL IS POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z AT KBDN AND KRDM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KBDN AND KRDM, BUT THE PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THOSE
TAFS. FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PERRY


&&

.FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN CENTRAL OREGON OR OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  67 102  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  62 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66 101  68 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  60  96  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  46  94  58  94 /  10  10  20  20
LGD  63  94  63  92 /  20  10  20  20
GCD  66  94  66  91 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  65  96  67  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83









000
FXUS66 KPDT 282129
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS HIGH PLACES THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIPPLES OR SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING AROUND THE HIGH.
THE LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OR SCATTERED. ONE MODEL...THE GFS...IS HINTING AT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY. IF CORRECT THEN THIS COULD BE THE
TRIGGER TO ELEVATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREFER TO WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF IT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS BEFORE ACTING ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND
ABOVE NORMAL BUT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN CLOUD COVER WOULD
PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. PREFERRED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AND TWEAK AS MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON DETAILS OF THE DAY TO DAY
SITUATION SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO, POSSIBLY FROM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO
COAST. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
FRIDAY THOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
COLUMBIA BASIN DRY. THE WAVE/UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MONTANA ON
SATURDAY AND OUR FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL OREGON, THE CASCADES AS FAR NORTH AS MOUNT ADAMS AND THE
EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK LOW
OFF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND AID IN INCREASING THE MOISTURE FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
PERSISTING, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S
WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY.
FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL IS POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z AT KBDN AND KRDM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KBDN AND KRDM, BUT THE PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THOSE
TAFS. FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PERRY


&&

.FIRE WX...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO BE MODERATE TO POOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGETOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN CENTRAL OREGON OR OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. EACH DAY THIS WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF
THE WASHINGTON BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. WILL MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS CHECK MODEL CONSISTENCY TO DETERMINE IF ANY
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE COMING DAYS.  COBB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  71 101  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  67 102  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  62 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  66 101  68 100 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  60  96  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  46  94  58  94 /  10  10  20  20
LGD  63  94  63  92 /  20  10  20  20
GCD  66  94  66  91 /  20  20  20  20
DLS  65  96  67  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83









000
FXUS66 KPQR 282104
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
204 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF
THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT IS MORE SOLID...WITH A LITTLE
SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES THAT
PRODUCE THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH THIS WEEK. THIS
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS. A MARINE LAYER HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER RATHER SHALLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME SEEPAGE INLAND THROUGH COASTAL
GAPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ALONG THE COAST BUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND MAY NOT CLEAR BACK OFFSHORE
TOO MUCH MORE. THERE ARE SOME CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON IN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTY...INCLUDING
JUST EAST OF WILLAMETTE PASS. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY BUT NOT SURE WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE ANY
LIGHTNING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE CONTROLLING WEATHER PATTERN IS THE SAME ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. IT WILL STILL BE WARM INLAND WITH TEMPS
CLOSE TO 90. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK ONTO THE COAST FAIRLY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
REMAINING QUITE LOW AND SHALLOW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS LOCALLY
INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO KELSO EARLY
TUESDAY. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE SPREADING
UP FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO
NEAR 1 INCH. THUS EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE OREGON CASCADES...PROBABLY STAYING
SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL TEND
TO BE A BIT DRY...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL...AND
THE GFS MODEL EVEN DEVELOPS A QPF BULLSEYE...POSSIBLY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWS REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH. THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AGAIN.
THE MODELS IMPLY THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME MORE SOLID ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...AND MAY TRY TO EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT
ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST GRIDS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS
MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE DECREASED POPS
FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED CONFIDENCE OF
THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR AND OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AFTER 00Z TUE. HIGH PRES OVER REGION...WITH DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CIRRUS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO ADVERSE WX IMPACTS...WITH VFR. /27
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC...WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF
AND FAR SW OREGON. PRES GRADIENTS WILL FLEX FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
TIGHTEST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER S OREGON COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WINDS EASE A TAD ON TUE AND WED.

SEAS RUNNING 4 TO 7 FT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS S OF TILLAMOOK WHERE
DURATION OF NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD UP THE SEAS.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 282104
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
204 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF
THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT IS MORE SOLID...WITH A LITTLE
SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE FEATURES THAT
PRODUCE THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH THIS WEEK. THIS
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS. A MARINE LAYER HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER RATHER SHALLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME SEEPAGE INLAND THROUGH COASTAL
GAPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ALONG THE COAST BUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND MAY NOT CLEAR BACK OFFSHORE
TOO MUCH MORE. THERE ARE SOME CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON IN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTY...INCLUDING
JUST EAST OF WILLAMETTE PASS. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY BUT NOT SURE WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE ANY
LIGHTNING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE CONTROLLING WEATHER PATTERN IS THE SAME ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. IT WILL STILL BE WARM INLAND WITH TEMPS
CLOSE TO 90. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BACK ONTO THE COAST FAIRLY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
REMAINING QUITE LOW AND SHALLOW...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS LOCALLY
INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO KELSO EARLY
TUESDAY. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE SPREADING
UP FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO
NEAR 1 INCH. THUS EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE OREGON CASCADES...PROBABLY STAYING
SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL TEND
TO BE A BIT DRY...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL...AND
THE GFS MODEL EVEN DEVELOPS A QPF BULLSEYE...POSSIBLY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWS REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH. THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AGAIN.
THE MODELS IMPLY THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME MORE SOLID ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...AND MAY TRY TO EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT
ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST GRIDS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OUR AREA. THESE IMPULSES BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CASCADES...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS
MODEL RESOLUTION ACCURACY DECLINES RAPIDLY FURTHER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE DECREASED POPS
FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR STORM CHANCES...AND DECREASED CONFIDENCE OF
THUNDER CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO GREAT MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND LOCATION. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR AND OCCASIONAL VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AFTER 00Z TUE. HIGH PRES OVER REGION...WITH DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CIRRUS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO ADVERSE WX IMPACTS...WITH VFR. /27
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC...WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF
AND FAR SW OREGON. PRES GRADIENTS WILL FLEX FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
TIGHTEST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER S OREGON COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WINDS EASE A TAD ON TUE AND WED.

SEAS RUNNING 4 TO 7 FT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS S OF TILLAMOOK WHERE
DURATION OF NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD UP THE SEAS.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 282048
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
248 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...MONSOON MOISTURE IS MAINLY AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR HAVE BEEN WEAK SO FAR AND THE AIR MASS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY /BUT SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK/ FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
NEAR MINUS 4 OVER ABOUT HALF OUR CWA INCLUDING SRN HARNEY AND
MALHEUR COUNTIES...THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...TREASURE VALLEY...AND
THE BOISE MOUNTAINS.  OUR NWRN ZONES WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE...
WHILE OUR SERN ZONES MAY BE TOO CLOUDY AND NOT AS UNSTABLE.  DUE
TO CLOUDS...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY AND
COOLER AGAIN WEDNESDAY.  NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WARM.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS FORESEEN BY THE MODELS...WITH THE VERY WARM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
...A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR ADVECTING MONSOON MOISTURE OVER OUR
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE HEATING...PLUS ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THESE
DISTURBANCES IS BELOW AVERAGE. AS USUAL THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE THE TREASURE VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT...VARIABLE 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 282048
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
248 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...MONSOON MOISTURE IS MAINLY AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR HAVE BEEN WEAK SO FAR AND THE AIR MASS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY /BUT SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK/ FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
NEAR MINUS 4 OVER ABOUT HALF OUR CWA INCLUDING SRN HARNEY AND
MALHEUR COUNTIES...THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...TREASURE VALLEY...AND
THE BOISE MOUNTAINS.  OUR NWRN ZONES WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE...
WHILE OUR SERN ZONES MAY BE TOO CLOUDY AND NOT AS UNSTABLE.  DUE
TO CLOUDS...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY AND
COOLER AGAIN WEDNESDAY.  NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WARM.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS FORESEEN BY THE MODELS...WITH THE VERY WARM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
...A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR ADVECTING MONSOON MOISTURE OVER OUR
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE HEATING...PLUS ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THESE
DISTURBANCES IS BELOW AVERAGE. AS USUAL THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE THE TREASURE VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT...VARIABLE 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS66 KPDT 281703 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1003 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW AROUND
THIS HIGH PLACES US UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CLIPPING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON OVER TO THE WALLOWA
MOUNTAIN REGION TODAY AND TUESDAY. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL BE
HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL BUT BELOW THE WIDESPREAD 103 DEGREES
NEEDED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY. FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS
ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL IS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z AT KBDN AND KRDM. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KBDN AND KRDM, BUT THE
PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THOSE TAFS. FEW-SCT MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA AFTER 12Z TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15
KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 140 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
INLAND WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF AK WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND CWA. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD GOING
INTO THE LONG TERM. SOME LIMITED MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE DUE TO HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPE WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. TODAY ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT FORM WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE EACH DAY SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
AND EASTWARD AS THE AREA OF INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OREGON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH LITTLE RAINFALL REACHING THE
GROUND. THUS THERE COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN DUE TO LIGHTNING
IGNITING NEW WILDFIRES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT...BUT NOT QUITE AS
HOT AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
100-103 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 80S AND 90S ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY
WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY AND THEN THERE WILL BE SLIGHT COOLING AS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE DUE TO CONVECTION. NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WARM DUE TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PREVENTING STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ANYMORE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS THREAT WILL
INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS MONSOON MOISTURE INCREASES. CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORMS KEEP WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ELEVATED
WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WITH TIME...BUT INDIVIDUAL WEAK WAVES THAT WOULD ENHANCE
INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
VARY WITH EACH MODEL RUN. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY
TRIGGER NIGHTTIME CONVECTION AS WELL.   COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  99  66  98  68 /   0   0  10  10
ALW 101  71 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 101  67 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  98  62 100  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 101  66 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  97  60  96  65 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  96  46  94  58 /  10  10  20  20
LGD  96  63  94  61 /  10  10  10  20
GCD  96  66  94  66 /  10  20  20  20
DLS  98  65  96  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 281703 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1003 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW AROUND
THIS HIGH PLACES US UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CLIPPING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON OVER TO THE WALLOWA
MOUNTAIN REGION TODAY AND TUESDAY. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL BE
HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL BUT BELOW THE WIDESPREAD 103 DEGREES
NEEDED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY. FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS
ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL IS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z AT KBDN AND KRDM. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KBDN AND KRDM, BUT THE
PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THOSE TAFS. FEW-SCT MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA AFTER 12Z TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15
KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 140 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
INLAND WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF AK WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND CWA. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD GOING
INTO THE LONG TERM. SOME LIMITED MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE DUE TO HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPE WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. TODAY ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT FORM WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE EACH DAY SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
AND EASTWARD AS THE AREA OF INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OREGON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH LITTLE RAINFALL REACHING THE
GROUND. THUS THERE COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN DUE TO LIGHTNING
IGNITING NEW WILDFIRES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT...BUT NOT QUITE AS
HOT AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
100-103 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 80S AND 90S ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY
WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY AND THEN THERE WILL BE SLIGHT COOLING AS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE DUE TO CONVECTION. NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WARM DUE TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PREVENTING STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ANYMORE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS THREAT WILL
INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS MONSOON MOISTURE INCREASES. CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORMS KEEP WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ELEVATED
WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WITH TIME...BUT INDIVIDUAL WEAK WAVES THAT WOULD ENHANCE
INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
VARY WITH EACH MODEL RUN. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY
TRIGGER NIGHTTIME CONVECTION AS WELL.   COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  99  66  98  68 /   0   0  10  10
ALW 101  71 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 101  67 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  98  62 100  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 101  66 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  97  60  96  65 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  96  46  94  58 /  10  10  20  20
LGD  96  63  94  61 /  10  10  10  20
GCD  96  66  94  66 /  10  20  20  20
DLS  98  65  96  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83






000
FXUS66 KPQR 281633
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
933 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
OFF THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE
MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT SLOWLY BECOME MORE SOLID THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE WEATHER
PATTERN THAT WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH THIS WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE
LIGHT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. WHILE A
MARINE LAYER WAS FORMING ALONG THE COAST...THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP IT RATHER SHALLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH WE MAY START TO
SEE SOME SEEPAGE INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE AIR MASS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
IN THE UPPER 580S TO NEAR 590 DM AND 850 TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEG C.
WITH LESS HIGHER CLOUDS TODAY...THERE SHOULD BE MORE AFTERNOON HIGHS
INLAND CRACKING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. THE COAST HAS MORE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS MORNING THAT SHOULD BACK OFF THE COAST A LITTLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70.

THE AIR MASS ALOFT IS QUITE DRY TODAY. WE DID NOT SEE ANY LIGHTNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WE MAY NOT TODAY EITHER. HAVE
SHRUNK OUR SLIGHT CHANCE TO JUST FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY. THE 12Z
SALEM SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY AND MAINTAIN PW
VALUES AROUND 0.7 INCH...SO THE THREAT IS SMALL AT BEST.

THE CONTROLLING WEATHER PATTERN IS THE SAME ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM
INLAND WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO 90. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE
NEAR THE COAST WITH NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOCALLY
INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO KELSO EARLY
TUESDAY. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR 1 INCH. THUS
EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE OREGON CASCADES...PROBABLY STAYING SOUTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL TEND TO BE A BIT
DRY...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL.

THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWS REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH. THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AGAIN.
THE MODELS IMPLY THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME MORE SOLID ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...AND MAY TRY TO EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT
ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEK THIS WEEK.NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEING POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH WILL
ALLOW LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND THE
LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.  DECREASED CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF THIS AXIS LATER
THIS WEEK...BUT ONLY A LITTLE DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
LOCATION OF THIS AXIS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST DUE TO SHORTWAVE IMPULSES RIDING UP ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR DURING
AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON
TIMING. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES OVER REGION...WITH DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT. LIKE
PAST MORNINGS...WILL SEE PATCHY FOG IN AND AROUND COASTAL BAYS AFTER
16Z TUE. IN ADDITION...COASTAL IFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING...BEFORE BREAKING UP AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY 18Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CIRRUS. /27

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO ADVERSE WX IMPACTS...WITH VFR. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC...WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF
AND FAR SW OREGON. PRES GRADIENTS WILL FLEX FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
TIGHTEST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER S OREGON COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WINDS EASE A TAD ON TUE AND WED.

SEAS RUNNING 4 TO 7 FT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS S OF TILLAMOOK WHERE
DURATION OF NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD UP THE SEAS.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281633
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
933 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
OFF THE B.C. COAST. THE RESULTING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST
OREGON...EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE
MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT SLOWLY BECOME MORE SOLID THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH A LITTLE SEEPAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE WEATHER
PATTERN THAT WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH THIS WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE
LIGHT MOSTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. WHILE A
MARINE LAYER WAS FORMING ALONG THE COAST...THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP IT RATHER SHALLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH WE MAY START TO
SEE SOME SEEPAGE INLAND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE AIR MASS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
IN THE UPPER 580S TO NEAR 590 DM AND 850 TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEG C.
WITH LESS HIGHER CLOUDS TODAY...THERE SHOULD BE MORE AFTERNOON HIGHS
INLAND CRACKING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. THE COAST HAS MORE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS MORNING THAT SHOULD BACK OFF THE COAST A LITTLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70.

THE AIR MASS ALOFT IS QUITE DRY TODAY. WE DID NOT SEE ANY LIGHTNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WE MAY NOT TODAY EITHER. HAVE
SHRUNK OUR SLIGHT CHANCE TO JUST FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY. THE 12Z
SALEM SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY AND MAINTAIN PW
VALUES AROUND 0.7 INCH...SO THE THREAT IS SMALL AT BEST.

THE CONTROLLING WEATHER PATTERN IS THE SAME ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM
INLAND WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO 90. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE
NEAR THE COAST WITH NIGHT AND MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOCALLY
INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO KELSO EARLY
TUESDAY. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR 1 INCH. THUS
EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE OREGON CASCADES...PROBABLY STAYING SOUTH OF MOUNT
JEFFERSON. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL TEND TO BE A BIT
DRY...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL.

THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWS REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH. THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MAY SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AGAIN.
THE MODELS IMPLY THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME MORE SOLID ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY...AND MAY TRY TO EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND BUT
ANYTHING WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT. TEMPS INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEK THIS WEEK.NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEING POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH WILL
ALLOW LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND THE
LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER.  DECREASED CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF THIS AXIS LATER
THIS WEEK...BUT ONLY A LITTLE DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
LOCATION OF THIS AXIS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST DUE TO SHORTWAVE IMPULSES RIDING UP ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR DURING
AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON
TIMING. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES OVER REGION...WITH DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT. LIKE
PAST MORNINGS...WILL SEE PATCHY FOG IN AND AROUND COASTAL BAYS AFTER
16Z TUE. IN ADDITION...COASTAL IFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING...BEFORE BREAKING UP AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY 18Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CIRRUS. /27

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO ADVERSE WX IMPACTS...WITH VFR. ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE PAC...WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF
AND FAR SW OREGON. PRES GRADIENTS WILL FLEX FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
TIGHTEST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER S OREGON COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WINDS EASE A TAD ON TUE AND WED.

SEAS RUNNING 4 TO 7 FT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS S OF TILLAMOOK WHERE
DURATION OF NW WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD UP THE SEAS.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 281545
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
845 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER LIKE YESTERDAY,
TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE SHOULD REACH 100 FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY.
MAIN CONCERN THIS WEEK CENTERS AROUND WHERE AND HOW MUCH COVERAGE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAPPEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR TODAY IS AROUND
0.50 AT LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES AN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN BE FROM CRATER LAKE AND DIAMOND
LAKE JUNCTION NORTH WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORM THIS EVENING. MORE
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OREGON TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY DEW
POINTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR KLAMATH FALLS.

ON TUESDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A STRONGER
INSTABILITY TO NE CALIFORNIA AND THEN INTO EASTERN OREGON. THESE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE WET BUT ALSO GOOD LIGHTNING PRODUCERS.

WE MAY NEED TO UPDATE POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON GIVEN A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/12Z TAFS...

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS FROM THE LOWER UMPQUA RIVER VALLEY NEAR REEDSPORT SOUTHWARD
TO CAPE BLANCO. EXPECT AREAS OF LIFR CIGS TO ALSO FORM ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS AND GOLD BEACH THIS MORNING, THOUGH THERE
MAY ALSO BE A CLEAR AREA AROUND PORT ORFORD. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST FROM 16-18Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR,
THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD IN OREGON AND IN MODOC
COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ON TRACK THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE AND A
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN COMBINE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS COOLER AIR ALOFT TO BRING INSTABILITY TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL SEE NOT NEARLY AS MUCH CLOUD
COVER INLAND EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAR
EAST SIDE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE GOOD INSTABILITY ON THE WEST
SIDE...BUT THE 700-500 RH IS BELOW 30 PERCENT AND HAVE CUT BACK
CHANCES TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE AREA AND THE WEST SIDE. UNLIKE OTHER DAYS THAT
HAVE HAD INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH EARLY WHICH RESULTED IN
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH INDICATE LI`S IN THE -3 TO -4 RANGE. THE MORNING STARTS WITH
A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO MODOC COUNTY AROUND 18Z WITH STRONG
PVA...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH THE BEST CONVECTION NEEDING
SURFACE SUPPORT AND HAVE GONE CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. BY 00Z THE BEST PVA IS ON THE EAST
SIDE IN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY COMBINING WITH GOOD THETA-E
CONVERGENCE...AND THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE WEST SIDE WITH
WEAKER PVA BUT VERY GOOD 850-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE. WITH THE
WEAK SW 0-6KM FLOW STORMS MAY LATCH ONTO TERRAIN AT TIMES AND
WITH PW VALUES SHOWING AROUND 1.2 INCHES AM THINKING THERE WILL BE
A HIT OR MISS CELL OR THREE THAT MAY BE VERY GOOD RAIN AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WOBBLING UP THE WEST SIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF CELLS ON THE EAST SIDE
AND IN THE CASCADES. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHUNTING THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. SVEN

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/12Z TAFS...

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS FROM THE LOWER UMPQUA RIVER VALLEY NEAR REEDSPORT SOUTHWARD
TO CAPE BLANCO. EXPECT AREAS OF LIFR CIGS TO ALSO FORM ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS AND GOLD BEACH THIS MORNING, THOUGH THERE
MAY ALSO BE A CLEAR AREA AROUND PORT ORFORD. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST FROM 16-18Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR,
THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD IN OREGON AND IN MODOC
COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/MAS






000
FXUS66 KMFR 281545
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
845 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER LIKE YESTERDAY,
TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE SHOULD REACH 100 FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY.
MAIN CONCERN THIS WEEK CENTERS AROUND WHERE AND HOW MUCH COVERAGE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAPPEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR TODAY IS AROUND
0.50 AT LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES AN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN BE FROM CRATER LAKE AND DIAMOND
LAKE JUNCTION NORTH WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORM THIS EVENING. MORE
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OREGON TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY DEW
POINTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR KLAMATH FALLS.

ON TUESDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A STRONGER
INSTABILITY TO NE CALIFORNIA AND THEN INTO EASTERN OREGON. THESE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE WET BUT ALSO GOOD LIGHTNING PRODUCERS.

WE MAY NEED TO UPDATE POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON GIVEN A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/12Z TAFS...

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS FROM THE LOWER UMPQUA RIVER VALLEY NEAR REEDSPORT SOUTHWARD
TO CAPE BLANCO. EXPECT AREAS OF LIFR CIGS TO ALSO FORM ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS AND GOLD BEACH THIS MORNING, THOUGH THERE
MAY ALSO BE A CLEAR AREA AROUND PORT ORFORD. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST FROM 16-18Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR,
THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD IN OREGON AND IN MODOC
COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ON TRACK THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE AND A
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN COMBINE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS COOLER AIR ALOFT TO BRING INSTABILITY TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL SEE NOT NEARLY AS MUCH CLOUD
COVER INLAND EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAR
EAST SIDE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE GOOD INSTABILITY ON THE WEST
SIDE...BUT THE 700-500 RH IS BELOW 30 PERCENT AND HAVE CUT BACK
CHANCES TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE AREA AND THE WEST SIDE. UNLIKE OTHER DAYS THAT
HAVE HAD INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH EARLY WHICH RESULTED IN
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH INDICATE LI`S IN THE -3 TO -4 RANGE. THE MORNING STARTS WITH
A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO MODOC COUNTY AROUND 18Z WITH STRONG
PVA...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH THE BEST CONVECTION NEEDING
SURFACE SUPPORT AND HAVE GONE CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. BY 00Z THE BEST PVA IS ON THE EAST
SIDE IN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY COMBINING WITH GOOD THETA-E
CONVERGENCE...AND THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE WEST SIDE WITH
WEAKER PVA BUT VERY GOOD 850-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE. WITH THE
WEAK SW 0-6KM FLOW STORMS MAY LATCH ONTO TERRAIN AT TIMES AND
WITH PW VALUES SHOWING AROUND 1.2 INCHES AM THINKING THERE WILL BE
A HIT OR MISS CELL OR THREE THAT MAY BE VERY GOOD RAIN AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WOBBLING UP THE WEST SIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF CELLS ON THE EAST SIDE
AND IN THE CASCADES. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHUNTING THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. SVEN

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/12Z TAFS...

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS FROM THE LOWER UMPQUA RIVER VALLEY NEAR REEDSPORT SOUTHWARD
TO CAPE BLANCO. EXPECT AREAS OF LIFR CIGS TO ALSO FORM ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS AND GOLD BEACH THIS MORNING, THOUGH THERE
MAY ALSO BE A CLEAR AREA AROUND PORT ORFORD. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST FROM 16-18Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR,
THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD IN OREGON AND IN MODOC
COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/MAS







000
FXUS66 KPDT 281529
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
830 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW AROUND
THIS HIGH PLACES US UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CLIPPING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON OVER TO THE WALLOWA
MOUNTAIN REGION TODAY AND TUESDAY. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL BE
HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL BUT BELOW THE WIDESPREAD 103 DEGREES
NEEDED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 140 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
INLAND WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF AK WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND CWA. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD GOING
INTO THE LONG TERM. SOME LIMITED MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE DUE TO HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPE WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. TODAY ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT FORM WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE EACH DAY SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
AND EASTWARD AS THE AREA OF INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OREGON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH LITTLE RAINFALL REACHING THE
GROUND. THUS THERE COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN DUE TO LIGHTNING
IGNITING NEW WILDFIRES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT...BUT NOT QUITE AS
HOT AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
100-103 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 80S AND 90S ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY
WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY AND THEN THERE WILL BE SLIGHT COOLING AS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE DUE TO CONVECTION. NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WARM DUE TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PREVENTING STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ANYMORE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS THREAT WILL
INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS MONSOON MOISTURE INCREASES. CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORMS KEEP WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ELEVATED
WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WITH TIME...BUT INDIVIDUAL WEAK WAVES THAT WOULD ENHANCE
INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
VARY WITH EACH MODEL RUN. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY
TRIGGER NIGHTTIME CONVECTION AS WELL.   COONFIELD

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SCT MID AND SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. WILL ALSO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT KBDN AND KRDM LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING. STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON
AFTER 21Z AND COULD IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM UNTIL 05Z. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE OF A STORM AT THESE TWO SITES IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT
10 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  99  66  98  68 /   0   0  10  10
ALW 101  71 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 101  67 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  98  62 100  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 101  66 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  97  60  96  65 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  96  46  94  58 /  10  10  20  20
LGD  96  63  94  61 /  10  10  10  20
GCD  96  66  94  66 /  10  20  20  20
DLS  98  65  96  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83








000
FXUS66 KPDT 281529
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
830 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FOUR CORNER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE FLOW AROUND
THIS HIGH PLACES US UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CLIPPING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON OVER TO THE WALLOWA
MOUNTAIN REGION TODAY AND TUESDAY. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL BE
HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL BUT BELOW THE WIDESPREAD 103 DEGREES
NEEDED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 140 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
INLAND WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF AK WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND CWA. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD GOING
INTO THE LONG TERM. SOME LIMITED MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE DUE TO HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPE WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. TODAY ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT FORM WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE EACH DAY SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
AND EASTWARD AS THE AREA OF INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OREGON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH LITTLE RAINFALL REACHING THE
GROUND. THUS THERE COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN DUE TO LIGHTNING
IGNITING NEW WILDFIRES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT...BUT NOT QUITE AS
HOT AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
100-103 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 80S AND 90S ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY
WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY AND THEN THERE WILL BE SLIGHT COOLING AS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE DUE TO CONVECTION. NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WARM DUE TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PREVENTING STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ANYMORE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...EASTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
TIMES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS THREAT WILL
INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS MONSOON MOISTURE INCREASES. CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORMS KEEP WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ELEVATED
WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WITH TIME...BUT INDIVIDUAL WEAK WAVES THAT WOULD ENHANCE
INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
VARY WITH EACH MODEL RUN. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY
HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK WAVES MAY
TRIGGER NIGHTTIME CONVECTION AS WELL.   COONFIELD

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SCT MID AND SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. WILL ALSO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT KBDN AND KRDM LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING. STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OREGON
AFTER 21Z AND COULD IMPACT KBDN AND KRDM UNTIL 05Z. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE OF A STORM AT THESE TWO SITES IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT
10 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  99  66  98  68 /   0   0  10  10
ALW 101  71 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 101  67 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  98  62 100  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 101  66 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  97  60  96  65 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  96  46  94  58 /  10  10  20  20
LGD  96  63  94  61 /  10  10  10  20
GCD  96  66  94  66 /  10  20  20  20
DLS  98  65  96  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83









000
FXUS65 KBOI 281510
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
910 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO SRN-MOST ZONES TODAY...WITH A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE IN OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY.  NEW NAM AND SREF SPLIT THE MAIN MOISTURE TUESDAY WITH ONE
PART GOING INTO OWYHEE AND TWIN FALLS COUNTIES AND THE OTHER INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON...WITH A MOISTURE MINIMUM IN SERN OREGON.
TEMPS WILL BE HOT TODAY DESPITE CLOUDS...BUT A FEW DEGS COOLER
TUESDAY UNDER THICKER CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH SLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO OUR
CWA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER...OVER THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY. SURFACE WINDS...
VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...VARIABLE AROUND 10 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. ELEVATED TERRAIN ACROSS SE OREGON /EXCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY/ AND SW IDAHO WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE NV BORDER. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS
TO HEAT UP TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE A MORE
PERSISTENT CLOUD SHIELD OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER. TONIGHT IS MILD AND DRY UNDER A
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASED COVERAGE ALONG THE ID/NV
BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
CONVECTION.  FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND WAVE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281510
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
910 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO SRN-MOST ZONES TODAY...WITH A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE IN OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY.  NEW NAM AND SREF SPLIT THE MAIN MOISTURE TUESDAY WITH ONE
PART GOING INTO OWYHEE AND TWIN FALLS COUNTIES AND THE OTHER INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON...WITH A MOISTURE MINIMUM IN SERN OREGON.
TEMPS WILL BE HOT TODAY DESPITE CLOUDS...BUT A FEW DEGS COOLER
TUESDAY UNDER THICKER CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH SLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO OUR
CWA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER...OVER THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY. SURFACE WINDS...
VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...VARIABLE AROUND 10 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. ELEVATED TERRAIN ACROSS SE OREGON /EXCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY/ AND SW IDAHO WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE NV BORDER. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS
TO HEAT UP TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE A MORE
PERSISTENT CLOUD SHIELD OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER. TONIGHT IS MILD AND DRY UNDER A
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASED COVERAGE ALONG THE ID/NV
BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
CONVECTION.  FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND WAVE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281510
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
910 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO SRN-MOST ZONES TODAY...WITH A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE IN OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY.  NEW NAM AND SREF SPLIT THE MAIN MOISTURE TUESDAY WITH ONE
PART GOING INTO OWYHEE AND TWIN FALLS COUNTIES AND THE OTHER INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON...WITH A MOISTURE MINIMUM IN SERN OREGON.
TEMPS WILL BE HOT TODAY DESPITE CLOUDS...BUT A FEW DEGS COOLER
TUESDAY UNDER THICKER CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH SLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO OUR
CWA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER...OVER THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY. SURFACE WINDS...
VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...VARIABLE AROUND 10 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. ELEVATED TERRAIN ACROSS SE OREGON /EXCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY/ AND SW IDAHO WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE NV BORDER. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS
TO HEAT UP TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE A MORE
PERSISTENT CLOUD SHIELD OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER. TONIGHT IS MILD AND DRY UNDER A
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASED COVERAGE ALONG THE ID/NV
BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
CONVECTION.  FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND WAVE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281510
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
910 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO SRN-MOST ZONES TODAY...WITH A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE IN OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY.  NEW NAM AND SREF SPLIT THE MAIN MOISTURE TUESDAY WITH ONE
PART GOING INTO OWYHEE AND TWIN FALLS COUNTIES AND THE OTHER INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON...WITH A MOISTURE MINIMUM IN SERN OREGON.
TEMPS WILL BE HOT TODAY DESPITE CLOUDS...BUT A FEW DEGS COOLER
TUESDAY UNDER THICKER CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH SLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO OUR
CWA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER...OVER THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY. SURFACE WINDS...
VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...VARIABLE AROUND 10 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. ELEVATED TERRAIN ACROSS SE OREGON /EXCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY/ AND SW IDAHO WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE NV BORDER. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS
TO HEAT UP TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE A MORE
PERSISTENT CLOUD SHIELD OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER. TONIGHT IS MILD AND DRY UNDER A
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASED COVERAGE ALONG THE ID/NV
BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
CONVECTION.  FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND WAVE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS66 KMFR 281139 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
439 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ON TRACK THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE AND A
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN COMBINE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS COOLER AIR ALOFT TO BRING INSTABILITY TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL SEE NOT NEARLY AS MUCH CLOUD
COVER INLAND EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAR
EAST SIDE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE GOOD INSTABILITY ON THE WEST
SIDE...BUT THE 700-500 RH IS BELOW 30 PERCENT AND HAVE CUT BACK
CHANCES TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE AREA AND THE WEST SIDE. UNLIKE OTHER DAYS THAT
HAVE HAD INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH EARLY WHICH RESULTED IN
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH INDICATE LI`S IN THE -3 TO -4 RANGE. THE MORNING STARTS WITH
A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO MODOC COUNTY AROUND 18Z WITH STRONG
PVA...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH THE BEST CONVECTION NEEDING
SURFACE SUPPORT AND HAVE GONE CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. BY 00Z THE BEST PVA IS ON THE EAST
SIDE IN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY COMBINING WITH GOOD THETA-E
CONVERGENCE...AND THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE WEST SIDE WITH
WEAKER PVA BUT VERY GOOD 850-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE. WITH THE
WEAK SW 0-6KM FLOW STORMS MAY LATCH ONTO TERRAIN AT TIMES AND
WITH PW VALUES SHOWING AROUND 1.2 INCHES AM THINKING THERE WILL BE
A HIT OR MISS CELL OR THREE THAT MAY BE VERY GOOD RAIN AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WOBBLING UP THE WEST SIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF CELLS ON THE EAST SIDE
AND IN THE CASCADES. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHUNTING THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. SVEN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/12Z TAFS...

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS FROM THE LOWER UMPQUA RIVER VALLEY NEAR REEDSPORT SOUTHWARD
TO CAPE BLANCO. EXPECT AREAS OF LIFR CIGS TO ALSO FORM ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS AND GOLD BEACH THIS MORNING, THOUGH THERE
MAY ALSO BE A CLEAR AREA AROUND PORT ORFORD. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST FROM 16-18Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR,
THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD IN OREGON AND IN MODOC
COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

SBN/MAS







000
FXUS66 KMFR 281139 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
439 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ON TRACK THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE AND A
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN COMBINE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS COOLER AIR ALOFT TO BRING INSTABILITY TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL SEE NOT NEARLY AS MUCH CLOUD
COVER INLAND EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAR
EAST SIDE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE GOOD INSTABILITY ON THE WEST
SIDE...BUT THE 700-500 RH IS BELOW 30 PERCENT AND HAVE CUT BACK
CHANCES TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE AREA AND THE WEST SIDE. UNLIKE OTHER DAYS THAT
HAVE HAD INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH EARLY WHICH RESULTED IN
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH INDICATE LI`S IN THE -3 TO -4 RANGE. THE MORNING STARTS WITH
A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO MODOC COUNTY AROUND 18Z WITH STRONG
PVA...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH THE BEST CONVECTION NEEDING
SURFACE SUPPORT AND HAVE GONE CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. BY 00Z THE BEST PVA IS ON THE EAST
SIDE IN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY COMBINING WITH GOOD THETA-E
CONVERGENCE...AND THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE WEST SIDE WITH
WEAKER PVA BUT VERY GOOD 850-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE. WITH THE
WEAK SW 0-6KM FLOW STORMS MAY LATCH ONTO TERRAIN AT TIMES AND
WITH PW VALUES SHOWING AROUND 1.2 INCHES AM THINKING THERE WILL BE
A HIT OR MISS CELL OR THREE THAT MAY BE VERY GOOD RAIN AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WOBBLING UP THE WEST SIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF CELLS ON THE EAST SIDE
AND IN THE CASCADES. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHUNTING THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. SVEN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/12Z TAFS...

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS FROM THE LOWER UMPQUA RIVER VALLEY NEAR REEDSPORT SOUTHWARD
TO CAPE BLANCO. EXPECT AREAS OF LIFR CIGS TO ALSO FORM ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS AND GOLD BEACH THIS MORNING, THOUGH THERE
MAY ALSO BE A CLEAR AREA AROUND PORT ORFORD. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST FROM 16-18Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR,
THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD IN OREGON AND IN MODOC
COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

SBN/MAS







000
FXUS66 KMFR 281139 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
439 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ON TRACK THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE AND A
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN COMBINE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS COOLER AIR ALOFT TO BRING INSTABILITY TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL SEE NOT NEARLY AS MUCH CLOUD
COVER INLAND EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAR
EAST SIDE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE GOOD INSTABILITY ON THE WEST
SIDE...BUT THE 700-500 RH IS BELOW 30 PERCENT AND HAVE CUT BACK
CHANCES TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE AREA AND THE WEST SIDE. UNLIKE OTHER DAYS THAT
HAVE HAD INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH EARLY WHICH RESULTED IN
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH INDICATE LI`S IN THE -3 TO -4 RANGE. THE MORNING STARTS WITH
A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO MODOC COUNTY AROUND 18Z WITH STRONG
PVA...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH THE BEST CONVECTION NEEDING
SURFACE SUPPORT AND HAVE GONE CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. BY 00Z THE BEST PVA IS ON THE EAST
SIDE IN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY COMBINING WITH GOOD THETA-E
CONVERGENCE...AND THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE WEST SIDE WITH
WEAKER PVA BUT VERY GOOD 850-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE. WITH THE
WEAK SW 0-6KM FLOW STORMS MAY LATCH ONTO TERRAIN AT TIMES AND
WITH PW VALUES SHOWING AROUND 1.2 INCHES AM THINKING THERE WILL BE
A HIT OR MISS CELL OR THREE THAT MAY BE VERY GOOD RAIN AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WOBBLING UP THE WEST SIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF CELLS ON THE EAST SIDE
AND IN THE CASCADES. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHUNTING THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. SVEN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/12Z TAFS...

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS FROM THE LOWER UMPQUA RIVER VALLEY NEAR REEDSPORT SOUTHWARD
TO CAPE BLANCO. EXPECT AREAS OF LIFR CIGS TO ALSO FORM ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS AND GOLD BEACH THIS MORNING, THOUGH THERE
MAY ALSO BE A CLEAR AREA AROUND PORT ORFORD. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST FROM 16-18Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR,
THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD IN OREGON AND IN MODOC
COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

SBN/MAS







000
FXUS66 KMFR 281139 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
439 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ON TRACK THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE AND A
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN COMBINE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS COOLER AIR ALOFT TO BRING INSTABILITY TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL SEE NOT NEARLY AS MUCH CLOUD
COVER INLAND EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAR
EAST SIDE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE GOOD INSTABILITY ON THE WEST
SIDE...BUT THE 700-500 RH IS BELOW 30 PERCENT AND HAVE CUT BACK
CHANCES TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE AREA AND THE WEST SIDE. UNLIKE OTHER DAYS THAT
HAVE HAD INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH EARLY WHICH RESULTED IN
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH INDICATE LI`S IN THE -3 TO -4 RANGE. THE MORNING STARTS WITH
A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO MODOC COUNTY AROUND 18Z WITH STRONG
PVA...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH THE BEST CONVECTION NEEDING
SURFACE SUPPORT AND HAVE GONE CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. BY 00Z THE BEST PVA IS ON THE EAST
SIDE IN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY COMBINING WITH GOOD THETA-E
CONVERGENCE...AND THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE WEST SIDE WITH
WEAKER PVA BUT VERY GOOD 850-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE. WITH THE
WEAK SW 0-6KM FLOW STORMS MAY LATCH ONTO TERRAIN AT TIMES AND
WITH PW VALUES SHOWING AROUND 1.2 INCHES AM THINKING THERE WILL BE
A HIT OR MISS CELL OR THREE THAT MAY BE VERY GOOD RAIN AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WOBBLING UP THE WEST SIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF CELLS ON THE EAST SIDE
AND IN THE CASCADES. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHUNTING THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. SVEN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/12Z TAFS...

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS FROM THE LOWER UMPQUA RIVER VALLEY NEAR REEDSPORT SOUTHWARD
TO CAPE BLANCO. EXPECT AREAS OF LIFR CIGS TO ALSO FORM ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS AND GOLD BEACH THIS MORNING, THOUGH THERE
MAY ALSO BE A CLEAR AREA AROUND PORT ORFORD. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST FROM 16-18Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR,
THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD IN OREGON AND IN MODOC
COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

SBN/MAS







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