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000
FXUS66 KMFR 242309
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
409 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE MARINE AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 PM PDT fri 24 June 2016...A thermal trough
will strengthen this afternoon and evening...bringing a return of
strong north winds and very steep wind driven seas to the coastal
waters. North winds are expected to strengthen further Saturday
afternoon and evening with an area of Gales developing beyond 10 nm
from shore from Gold Beach southward. North winds will weaken only
slightly on Sunday. Winds and seas will peak in the afternoons and
evenings, with the most hazardous conditions expected from Cape
Blanco south. This pattern will continue through much of next week.
-CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 305 PM PDT Fri 24 June 2016...Hot
temperatures and low humidity are expected Saturday through the
next week as a thermal trough pattern develops. This particular
episode will be more noteworthy for its length than its strength.
Record highs are not expected but high temperatures will be about
10 degrees warmer on Saturday and persist at 5 to 15 degrees above
normal through the week. The pattern will produc east winds that
will be weak to moderate...strongest over ridges from the Cascades
westward to the coastal range. This will mean moderate to locally
poor mid slope and ridge top humidity recoveries with the worst
recoveries at the southern Oregon coastal range and the Klamath
and Siskiyou Mountains. Recoveries look to be worst on Saturday
night but will not be that much better in subsequent nights.

Weak instability looks to develop on Monday afternoon and produce a
few cumulus buildups. A capping inversion and meager amount of
moisture aloft will hinder thunderstorm development but this very
weak instability does look to be present during the afternoon and
evening hours from Monday through Thursday. -DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 231 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...As an upper trough axis moves east of us tonight,
an upper ridge will begin building over our area, and a thermal
trough develops along the coast. This will result in a rapid
return to warm summertime conditions tomorrow with even hotter
conditions on Sunday. It will be dry all areas through tomorrow
night, but by Sunday evening, some guidance shows a minimal
potential for convection over the Cascades north of Crater Lake.
It wasn`t enough to put any showers or thunderstorms in, yet.
Monday, however, we did add some thunderstorms to that area as
models show a slight increase in instability and moisture and a
weak shortwave in the flow.

We will remain under warm southwest flow aloft through the rest of
next week. We will see occasional disturbances in the flow that
may touch off thunderstorms over the mountains at times, but no
particular day stands out as more likely than others at this
point. We`ll have to wait and see about the potential for storms,
but it is expected to be warm to hot through next week. -Wright

AVIATION...For the 24/18Z TAF cycle...Stratus with MVFR cigs
may return to the north coast tonight. Drier air and increasing
offshore flow will result in continued VFR conditions everywhere
else through tonight. -Wright

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for
     PZZ350-370.
     Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ376.

$$

TRW/DW/CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 242309
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
409 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE MARINE AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 PM PDT fri 24 June 2016...A thermal trough
will strengthen this afternoon and evening...bringing a return of
strong north winds and very steep wind driven seas to the coastal
waters. North winds are expected to strengthen further Saturday
afternoon and evening with an area of Gales developing beyond 10 nm
from shore from Gold Beach southward. North winds will weaken only
slightly on Sunday. Winds and seas will peak in the afternoons and
evenings, with the most hazardous conditions expected from Cape
Blanco south. This pattern will continue through much of next week.
-CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 305 PM PDT Fri 24 June 2016...Hot
temperatures and low humidity are expected Saturday through the
next week as a thermal trough pattern develops. This particular
episode will be more noteworthy for its length than its strength.
Record highs are not expected but high temperatures will be about
10 degrees warmer on Saturday and persist at 5 to 15 degrees above
normal through the week. The pattern will produc east winds that
will be weak to moderate...strongest over ridges from the Cascades
westward to the coastal range. This will mean moderate to locally
poor mid slope and ridge top humidity recoveries with the worst
recoveries at the southern Oregon coastal range and the Klamath
and Siskiyou Mountains. Recoveries look to be worst on Saturday
night but will not be that much better in subsequent nights.

Weak instability looks to develop on Monday afternoon and produce a
few cumulus buildups. A capping inversion and meager amount of
moisture aloft will hinder thunderstorm development but this very
weak instability does look to be present during the afternoon and
evening hours from Monday through Thursday. -DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 231 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...As an upper trough axis moves east of us tonight,
an upper ridge will begin building over our area, and a thermal
trough develops along the coast. This will result in a rapid
return to warm summertime conditions tomorrow with even hotter
conditions on Sunday. It will be dry all areas through tomorrow
night, but by Sunday evening, some guidance shows a minimal
potential for convection over the Cascades north of Crater Lake.
It wasn`t enough to put any showers or thunderstorms in, yet.
Monday, however, we did add some thunderstorms to that area as
models show a slight increase in instability and moisture and a
weak shortwave in the flow.

We will remain under warm southwest flow aloft through the rest of
next week. We will see occasional disturbances in the flow that
may touch off thunderstorms over the mountains at times, but no
particular day stands out as more likely than others at this
point. We`ll have to wait and see about the potential for storms,
but it is expected to be warm to hot through next week. -Wright

AVIATION...For the 24/18Z TAF cycle...Stratus with MVFR cigs
may return to the north coast tonight. Drier air and increasing
offshore flow will result in continued VFR conditions everywhere
else through tonight. -Wright

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for
     PZZ350-370.
     Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ376.

$$

TRW/DW/CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 242131
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
231 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...As an upper trough axis moves east of us tonight,
an upper ridge will begin building over our area, and a thermal
trough develops along the coast. This will result in a rapid
return to warm summertime conditions tomorrow with even hotter
conditions on Sunday. It will be dry all areas through tomorrow
night, but by Sunday evening, some guidance shows a minimal
potential for convection over the Cascades north of Crater Lake.
It wasn`t enough to put any showers or thunderstorms in, yet.
Monday, however, we did add some thunderstorms to that area as
models show a slight increase in instability and moisture and a
weak shortwave in the flow.

We will remain under warm southwest flow aloft through the rest of
next week. We will see occasional disturbances in the flow that
may touch off thunderstorms over the mountains at times, but no
particular day stands out as more likely than others at this
point. We`ll have to wait and see about the potential for storms,
but it is expected to be warm to hot through next week. -Wright

&&

.AVIATION...For the 24/18Z TAF cycle...Stratus with MVFR cigs
may return to the north coast tonight. Drier air and increasing
offshore flow will result in continued VFR conditions everywhere
else through tonight. -Wright

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Fri 24 June 2016...A thermal trough
will redevelop today...bringing a return of strong north winds and
very steep wind driven seas to the coastal waters through the
weekend. Winds and seas will peak in the afternoons and evenings,
with the most hazardous conditions expected south of Cape Blanco.
This pattern will continue through much of next week. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for
     PZZ350-370.
     Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ376.

$$



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000
FXUS66 KPQR 242127
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
224 PM PDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A few showers will remain in the area into this
evening before high pressure builds into the area tonight and
Saturday, bringing a period of dry weather and warmer temperatures
that will extend into the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday Night through Monday)...The upper low has
shifted quickly east although remnant onshore flow and cyclonic
flow aloft has kept scattered light showers in the northern half of
the area today. These showers will remain for the next few hours but
will quickly dissipate after sunset. Clouds showed signs of clearing
earlier this afternoon, but with cool temps aloft, cu quickly filled
the skies as daytime heating commenced. Once these diurnal cu
dissipate after sunset, skies will remain mostly clear skies for the
first part of the overnight hours. Some stratus/patchy fog
development is possible in the northern half of the valley by
morning. Expect this stratus along the northern Oregon coast and
southwest Washington coast as well. By morning, areas south of Salem
will be under offshore flow which should keep skies mostly clear
south of there both in the valley and along the coast.

A weak upper level disturbance will move through during the day on
Saturday. This wave won`t bring any precip, but skies won`t be quite
as clear as previously thought. Have increased afternoon sky cover
across the entire area to account for this change. Sunday will be a
clear day as flow moves mostly offshore. This will result in mid 80s
for much of the interior with temps along the coast even warming near
or slightly above 70.

Another weak wave will move through Sunday night, but once again it`s
passage will be dry with the only impacts being a deepening marine
layer and slightly more cloud cover Monday than the other days.
/Bentley

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)...Models continue to show
a broad upper level ridge persisting over the forecast area through
late next week. This will keep warm and dry weather over the region.
Expect temps in the interior to remain in the 80s under mostly sunny
skies. The coast will likely remain partly cloudy due to a decent
onshore wind componet, but we could see some marine stratus burn
back to the beaches during the day. Marine stratus should help keep
temps in the 60s along the coast. In general, seasonal weather can
be expected next week. /64
&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are prevailing this afternoon and
is expected to continue overnight. However, here may be patchy
fog or MVFR stratus early Sat morning mainly on the coast and
area north of KSLE . Showers continue this afternoon with main
activity north of KUAO-KTMK line. Showers will end this evening.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions prevailing through Sat.
However there may be local MVFR cigs and patchy fog along the
lower Columbia River 12Z-17Z Sat.

&&

.MARINE...A ridge of high continues to build over the waters and
will remain into weekend. As a trough of low pres builds up along
the S Oregon coast Sat afternoon and Sat night will see north
winds increasing by late Sat, with gusts expected to reach small
craft criteria. For now will issue a small craft advisory for the
zones from Cascade Head to Florence. Winds may also reach advisory
criteria north of Cascade Heat Sat afternoon but looks marginal at
this time so will see what later model runs show. The north winds
are expected to continue into early next week. With the increase
in north winds, steep seas are likely to develop as a result of
the wind waves and fresh swell. Wave heights however are expected
to remain under 10 ft.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Saturday
     for Coastal Waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out
     60 nm.

&&

$$

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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.



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000
FXUS66 KPDT 242104 CCA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
204 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Corrected for mention of Wind Advisory Kittitas Valley

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...Overview...Cool and breezy
for the rest of the evening across most of the lower elevations.
Strongest winds are still in place across the Kittitas Valley and a
Wind Advisory will remain in effect through 6 PM PDT this evening.
Please refer to product PDXNPWPDT for further details.  Overnight
lows will be chilly in the mountains and central Oregon area.  Lows
will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s for the Lower elevations, and in
the 30s central Oregon and mountains.  Temperatures will rebound
for the rest of the weekend with warm and dry conditions expected.
Highs will be near 80 on Saturday for the lower elevations and in the
upper 60s to mid 70s mountains.  By Sunday highs will be in the upper
80s to lower 90s for the lower elevations and in the mid 70s to mid
80s mountains.  By Monday highs will be in the 90s across the lower
elevations, and 80s mountains.  Don`t anticipate any precipitation
for the forecast area after this evening.  Winds will be fairly light
as well after today.  The only concern is that Monday may have a
slight chance of thunder, mainly over the mountains.  Will keep this
out of the forecast as confidence is too low to mention.

Synopsis...Low pressure system will exit the area this evening and
the breezy to windy conditions that have been in place will
diminish.  As the low exits a four corners high will continue to
build over the area.  The area will be mainly under a westerly flow
until Sunday evening.  This is due to a system off the Gulf of
Alaska keeping the ridge suppressed and the flow more westerly.
Little to no moisture expected in the westerly flow, therefore POPs
for the most part through Sunday are little to nil.

With the building ridge, the 850mb temperatures will be on a rise
each day and expect that Monday`s highs will be roughly 15-25
degrees warmer than today.  As the flow shifts to southwest on Sunday
evening there is a weak disturbance that looks to move across the
area late Monday morning to mid-day.  There will be forcing and
instability over the mountains with this system, but moisture seems
to be limited.  Thusly confidence is not high enough to mention
thunder.  And as it currently stands any thunderstorm that might
occur could be low precipitation.  Weber

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday...Overall the region will
remain under a rather flat ridge of high pressure throughout the
extended period. This will translate to above normal temperatures
and dry conditions through the week. Some weak afternoon instability
indicated over northeast Oregon could lead to some cumulus buildups
but not sure there will be enough moisture in the atmosphere to
lead to thunderstorms at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours with a FEW-SCT clouds through this evening then becoming
SKC overnight. A mid/upper level trough will be exiting the interior
Pacific Northwest overnight with windy conditions of 15-30kts
through this evening then decreasing around sunset and becoming less
than 10 kts overnight through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  80  52  90 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  55  81  57  90 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  53  83  55  91 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  49  83  53  90 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  51  83  54  91 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  49  78  52  86 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  39  81  46  88 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  44  77  48  86 /  10   0   0   0
GCD  43  80  49  90 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  53  85  58  93 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for WAZ026.

&&

$$

89/91/91




000
FXUS66 KPDT 242100
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...Overview...Cool and breezy
for the rest of the evening across most of the lower elevations.
Overnight lows will be chilly in the mountains and central Oregon
area.  Lows will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s for the Lower
elevations, and in the 30s central Oregon and mountains.
Temperatures will rebound for the rest of the weekend with warm and
dry conditions expected.  Highs will be near 80 on Saturday for the
lower elevations and in the upper 60s to mid 70s mountains.  By
Sunday highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the lower
elevations and in the mid 70s to mid 80s mountains.  By Monday highs
will be in the 90s across the lower elevations, and 80s mountains.
Don`t anticipate any precipitation for the forecast area after this
evening.  Winds will be fairly light as well after today.  The only
concern is that Monday may have a slight chance of thunder, mainly
over the mountains.  Will keep this out of the forecast as
confidence is too low to mention.

Synopsis...Low pressure system will exit the area this evening and
the breezy to windy conditions that have been in place will
diminish.  As the low exits a four corners high will continue to
build over the area.  The area will be mainly under a westlery flow
until Sunday evening.  This is due to a system off the Gulf of
Alaska keeping the ridge surpressed and the flow more westerly.
Little to no moisture expected in the westlerly flow, therefore POPs
for the most part through Sunday are little to nil.

With the building ridge, the 850mb temperatures will be on a rise
each day and expect that Monday`s highs will be roughtly 15-25
degrees warmer than today.  As the flow shifts to southwest on Sunday
evening there is a weak disturbance that looks to move across the
area late Monday morning to mid-day.  There will be forcing and
instability over the mountains with this system, but moisture seems
to be limited.  Thusly confidence is not high enough to mention
thunder.  And as it currently stands any thunderstorm that might
occur could be low precipitation.  Weber

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday...Overall the region will
remain under a rather flat ridge of high pressure throughout the
extended period. This will translate to above normal temperatures
and dry conditions through the week. Some weak afternoon instability
indicated over northeast Oregon could lead to some cumulus buildups
but not sure there will be enough moisture in the atmosphere to
lead to thunderstorms at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours with a FEW-SCT clouds through this evening then becoming
SKC overnight. A mid/upper level trough will be exiting the interior
Pacific Northwest overnight with windy conditions of 15-30kts
through this evening then decreasing around sunset and becoming less
than 10 kts overnight through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  80  52  90 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  55  81  57  90 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  53  83  55  91 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  49  83  53  90 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  51  83  54  91 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  49  78  52  86 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  39  81  46  88 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  44  77  48  86 /  10   0   0   0
GCD  43  80  49  90 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  53  85  58  93 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for WAZ026.

&&

$$

89/91/91



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000
FXUS65 KBOI 242032
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
232 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...It has been breezy and much
cooler today across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. This
will be short-lived, however, and a new warmup begins tomorrow. A
strong upper level low was moving east across northern Idaho this
afternoon. Northwest flow aloft behind this system will last
overnight, but we will quickly return to zonal flow tomorrow and
then to southwest flow Sunday. This will keep us dry and bring a
rapid warming trend to the region. Highs Saturday will range from
75 to 85 in the lower elevations, while on Sunday that range jumps
up 10 degrees. The wind advisory that had been in effect for part
of the CWA has been cancelled. Winds didn`t quite make advisory
level today, and will settle down even more this evening. Finally,
a few showers may linger early this evening in far northern
Valley County, but otherwise the weekend will be dry.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Friday...It will continue to be
dry and warm through the majority of the extended period.
Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal. Starting on
Tuesday the models continue to show a series of waves passing
generally north of the area. There is a slight chance of
precipitation starting Thursday AM and lasting through the end of
the period, mostly for the West Central Mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Mid to upper level cloud cover, mostly north of
KONO, will begin to dissipate through this evening and into the
night. Surface winds west-northwest 15-20kts with gusts 30-40kts
through late this evening then becoming light and variable by early
Saturday morning. Winds aloft to 10k feet MSL west-northwest 15-
30kts.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. Mostly clear skies with light winds.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JC/DD
AVIATION.....JC




000
FXUS66 KPDT 241720 AAA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1020 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Updated aviation discussion

.UPDATE...Scattered to isolated showers this afternoon and evening.
Coverage should diminish throughout the day as low shifts off the
the east and stable drier air will take place.  There is the
possibility of some showers over the Blue and Wallowa Mountains to
become brief thunderstorms.  So have added isolated thunder through
the late afternoon for these areas.  Winds are already breezy with
the system coming in and will increase with daytime heating and
increased mixing.  Ellensburg looks like it will see the strongest
sustained winds 30-35 mph, and therefore we`ll be issuing a Wind
Advisory through 6 PM PDT today for the Kittitas Valley.
Additionally, patchy blowing dust might be an issue across the basin
and foothills zones with todays wind.   Weber

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours with a FEW-SCT clouds today then becoming SKC overnight. A
mid/upper level trough will continue moving across the interior
Pacific Northwest today producing some windy conditions of 15-30kts
through this evening. Winds will decrease around sunset and become
less than 10 kts overnight through Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...An upper low pressure system is
crossing the region and CWA at this time. There is limited moisture
with this system. However there is enough instability and moisture
to warrant isolated to scattered showers over the mountains today
and there will be a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms over
the northeast mountains. Current radar imagery shows some showers
associated with this system over the northern Blue Mountain
foothills and the Blue Mountains. The upper low will move to the
northeast of the CWA tonight. This will result in decreasing showers
and clouds with a dry and stable northwest flow behind it by
Saturday morning. Then the dry and stable conditions will persist
into Sunday. There will be a warming trend through the short term
period as high pressure builds over the region. It will be breezy to
windy today and then light winds are expected on Saturday and
Sunday. 88

LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday...An upper level
ridge will give way to a weak short wave moving through the region
on Monday afternoon and evening so I have a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the Blue Mountains to the Ochoco-John Day Highlands
and along the east slopes of the Washington Cascades for Monday
afternoon/evening. after the short wave exits the region the ridge
builds back over the forecast area for dry and stable conditions
from Tuesday through Thursday.  Polan



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  49  80  53 /  20  10   0   0
ALW  73  54  81  59 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  77  52  84  54 /  20  10   0   0
YKM  75  48  83  53 /  10  10   0   0
HRI  74  51  84  53 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  68  49  80  51 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  69  39  80  45 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  65  43  76  46 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  68  43  79  48 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  72  53  85  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for WAZ026.

&&

$$

89/99/99




000
FXUS66 KPQR 241628
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
925 AM PDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure system and a few rain showers
will remain over the region this morning...then move east of the area
this afternoon/evening. High pressure will build into the area
tonight and Saturday, bringing a period of dry weather and warmer
temperatures that will extend into the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Sunday)...No changes. Previous
discussion follows. An upper level low pressure
system remains over WA/OR this morning with the sfc front well to
the east. The region received decent rainfall Thursday afternoon/
evening as the upper level low moved into the area. There were
several reports in the 0.3 to 0.6 inch range and a few stations in
the higher terrain reported near 1 inch.

Showers will continue through the morning hours today...then begin to
quickly taper off this afternoon/evening as the upper level low moves
east of the area. A weak ridge of high pressure will begin to move
into the area tonight and Saturday which will mark the beginning of a
very nice stretch of summer weather that will last well into next
week. Overall, expect a few clouds along the coast and sunny skies
elsewhere Sat and Sun.This weekend, temperatures will run in the
mid 60s on the coast and upper 70s to lower 80s inland.  The warm,
pleasant weather will persist well into next week. Very nice summer
weather expected.  /twilde

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)...Previous discussion
follows...Broad upper level ridging will continue to bring warm and
dry conditions to the forecast area through late next week.
This will bring sunny skies to the interior, with temps warming into
the mid 80s by Tuesday. Models continue to show several weak
shortwaves moving across the Pac NW next week. These shortwaves will
help to deepen the marine layer along the coast which, combined with
an onshore flow pattern, should keep temps in the 60s under partly
cloudy skies. All in all, beautiful/seasonal weather is expected next
week. /64

 Models indicate a very weak shortwave traverses the area late Sunday
into Monday morning, but not strong enough for more than some
increasing clouds.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to remain dominant at TAF
sites, but temporary MVFR conditions are possible through 20z.
Showers expected to diminish later in the day, with diminishing
chances for MVFR conditions through 01z. Mainly VFR flight
conditions expected tonight after 01z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Mainly VFR conditions today and tonight, but
temporary MVFR conditions are possible through 20z as scattered
showers continue. Just a slight chance of conditions lowering to
MVFR category between 20z and 01z.

&&

.MARINE...A weak trough of low pres will move east across the
waters early this morning. Expect winds to remain mainly under 20
kt, but local gusts 20 to 25 kt may occur over the northern
portions of PZZ250 and PZZ270. A ridge of high pres pushes in
later today and remains into Sat. As a trough of low pres builds
up along the S Oregon coast late Sat into Sat night will see north
winds increasing by late Sat, with gusts likely to reach small
craft criteria. The north winds are expected to continue into
early next week. With the increase in north winds, steep seas are
likely to develop as a result of the wind waves and fresh swell.
Wave heights however are expected to remain under 10 ft.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 241628
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
925 AM PDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure system and a few rain showers
will remain over the region this morning...then move east of the area
this afternoon/evening. High pressure will build into the area
tonight and Saturday, bringing a period of dry weather and warmer
temperatures that will extend into the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Sunday)...No changes. Previous
discussion follows. An upper level low pressure
system remains over WA/OR this morning with the sfc front well to
the east. The region received decent rainfall Thursday afternoon/
evening as the upper level low moved into the area. There were
several reports in the 0.3 to 0.6 inch range and a few stations in
the higher terrain reported near 1 inch.

Showers will continue through the morning hours today...then begin to
quickly taper off this afternoon/evening as the upper level low moves
east of the area. A weak ridge of high pressure will begin to move
into the area tonight and Saturday which will mark the beginning of a
very nice stretch of summer weather that will last well into next
week. Overall, expect a few clouds along the coast and sunny skies
elsewhere Sat and Sun.This weekend, temperatures will run in the
mid 60s on the coast and upper 70s to lower 80s inland.  The warm,
pleasant weather will persist well into next week. Very nice summer
weather expected.  /twilde

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)...Previous discussion
follows...Broad upper level ridging will continue to bring warm and
dry conditions to the forecast area through late next week.
This will bring sunny skies to the interior, with temps warming into
the mid 80s by Tuesday. Models continue to show several weak
shortwaves moving across the Pac NW next week. These shortwaves will
help to deepen the marine layer along the coast which, combined with
an onshore flow pattern, should keep temps in the 60s under partly
cloudy skies. All in all, beautiful/seasonal weather is expected next
week. /64

 Models indicate a very weak shortwave traverses the area late Sunday
into Monday morning, but not strong enough for more than some
increasing clouds.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to remain dominant at TAF
sites, but temporary MVFR conditions are possible through 20z.
Showers expected to diminish later in the day, with diminishing
chances for MVFR conditions through 01z. Mainly VFR flight
conditions expected tonight after 01z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Mainly VFR conditions today and tonight, but
temporary MVFR conditions are possible through 20z as scattered
showers continue. Just a slight chance of conditions lowering to
MVFR category between 20z and 01z.

&&

.MARINE...A weak trough of low pres will move east across the
waters early this morning. Expect winds to remain mainly under 20
kt, but local gusts 20 to 25 kt may occur over the northern
portions of PZZ250 and PZZ270. A ridge of high pres pushes in
later today and remains into Sat. As a trough of low pres builds
up along the S Oregon coast late Sat into Sat night will see north
winds increasing by late Sat, with gusts likely to reach small
craft criteria. The north winds are expected to continue into
early next week. With the increase in north winds, steep seas are
likely to develop as a result of the wind waves and fresh swell.
Wave heights however are expected to remain under 10 ft.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 241555 AAA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
855 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Updated to add Wind Advisory for Kittitas Valley

.UPDATE...Scattered to isolated showers this afternoon and evening.
Coverage should diminish throughout the day as low shifts off the
the east and stable drier air will take place.  There is the
possibility of some showers over the Blue and Wallowa Mountains to
become brief thunderstorms.  So have added isolated thunder through
the late afternoon for these areas.  Winds are already breezy with
the system coming in and will increase with daytime heating and
increased mixing.  Ellensburg looks like it will see the strongest
sustained winds 30-35 mph, and therefore we`ll be issuing a Wind
Advisory through 6 PM PDT today for the Kittitas Valley.
Additionally, patchy blowing dust might be an issue across the basin
and foothills zones with todays wind.   Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...An upper low pressure system is
crossing the region and CWA at this time. There is limited moisture
with this system. However there is enough instability and moisture
to warrant isolated to scattered showers over the mountains today
and there will be a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms over
the northeast mountains. Current radar imagery shows some showers
associated with this system over the northern Blue Mountain
foothills and the Blue Mountains. The upper low will move to the
northeast of the CWA tonight. This will result in decreasing showers
and clouds with a dry and stable northwest flow behind it by
Saturday morning. Then the dry and stable conditions will persist
into Sunday. There will be a warming trend through the short term
period as high pressure builds over the region. It will be breezy to
windy today and then light winds are expected on Saturday and
Sunday. 88

LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday...An upper level
ridge will give way to a weak short wave moving through the region
on Monday afternoon and evening so I have a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the Blue Mountains to the Ochoco-John Day Highlands
and along the east slopes of the Washington Cascades for Monday
afternoon/evening. after the short wave exits the region the ridge
builds back over the forecast area for dry and stable conditions
from Tuesday through Thursday.  Polan

AVIATION...12Z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours.  A mid/upper level trough will continue moving across the
interior Pacific Northwest today with increasing clouds. A few
showers are possible mainly in the Blue Mountains, the Foothills of
the Blue Mountains and the Lower Columbia Basin this morning.
Although the probability is not very high and therefore not
anticipated, there could be an isolated thunderstorm associated with
the trough this morning. Will not be mentioning thunder in the TAFs
due to low confidence. Westerly winds are currently 10 to 20 kts at
most sites. Expect winds to increase 15 to 25 kts after 18z.  Polan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  49  80  53 /  20  10   0   0
ALW  73  54  81  59 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  77  52  84  54 /  20  10   0   0
YKM  75  48  83  53 /  10  10   0   0
HRI  74  51  84  53 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  68  49  80  51 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  69  39  80  45 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  65  43  76  46 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  68  43  79  48 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  72  53  85  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for WAZ026.

&&

$$

89/99/99




000
FXUS66 KMFR 241537
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
837 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...No updates needed this morning. Yesterday`s front
has moved on, and the upper trough axis is swinging through right
now. We could squeeze out a light shower in the upslope areas of
the Cascades and foothills north of Crater Lake this morning.
Elsewhere, it will remain mostly sunny, and while there will be
some cumulus from time to time, a strong capping inversion will
prevent anything more than weak, shallow convection. Today will be
the last really mild day of possibly the entire summer with highs
still below normal (around 80 in Medford). By tomorrow, summer
heat returns with temperatures at least 5 degrees above normal
through the rest of the forecast period. -Wright

&&

.AVIATION...For the 24/12Z TAF cycle...Satellite imagery and
surface observations indicate predominantly MVFR ceilings along
the coast and into the Umpqua basin this morning. Most areas
should clear to VFR later this morning when a drier air mass moves
in. Elsewhere, VFR cigs will continue for the next 24 hours.
-BPN/SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 100 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...24/00Z NAM/GFS/EC in.

A long wave upper level trough is now moving through the Pacific
Northwest. The associated surface front has now moved off to the
east. The associated precipitation has been light and most of it
fell along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin...along with the
adjacent Cascades. Recorded amounts were mostly less than 0.10
inches...but a number of stations along the coast reported 0.10
to 0.50 inches. Precipitation is diminishing now and should end
later this morning.

That`s all the precipitation that will fall over the Medford CWA
for at least the next week...except possibly some drizzle near the
coast. A broad ridge will build over the area...forcing the storm
track well to the north of the area. Once the frontal clouds
clear...skies will be mostly clear over the area except for marine
stratus over the coastal waters...moving into the coast and Umpqua
Basin in the night through morning hours. A short wave embedded
in southwest flow aloft may bring some drizzle to the coast Sunday
night into Monday. The 24/00Z GFS solution hints at some
convection on Monday afternoon and evening due to that same short
wave...but less than depicted in the 23/18z solution. It looks to
be quite dry then so will just keep the current ghost POPs in the
forecast for now.

The relatively cool temperatures will last one more day...the
inland highs on Friday will be around 5 to 10 degrees below
normal. High temperatures along the coast will be near
normal...except for the Brookings area...where low level easterly
flow will allow temperatures to warm to about 10 degrees above
normal. High temperatures on Monday will be similar to the Sunday
highs...but the lows will be several degrees warmer.

However...temperatures will warm quickly as the ridge builds in.
Inland highs on Saturday will bounce back up to around 5 degrees
above normal. Sunday highs will be warmer still...5 to 10 degrees
above normal. High temperatures on Monday will be similar to the
Sunday highs...but the lows will be several degrees warmer.

Long term discussion from the Thursday afternoon AFD...Tue June
28th - Friday July 1st) The models remain in pretty good agreement
in the extended with a few minor differences in details. The mean
ridge is expected to be positioned southeast of the forecast area,
so were not expecting any major heat wave. Max temperatures will
heat up, but were not expecting anything of significance with
readings averaging 10-15 degrees above normal. Odds are we`ll
remain dry through the extended period.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Fri 24 June 2016...A thermal trough
will redevelop today...bringing a return of strong north winds and
very steep wind driven seas to the coastal waters through the
weekend. Winds and seas will peak in the afternoons and evenings,
with the most hazardous conditions expected south of Cape Blanco.
This pattern will continue through much of next week. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT
     Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT
     Sunday for PZZ356-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KPDT 241537
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
837 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...Scattered to isolated showers this afternoon and evening.
Coverage should diminish throughout the day as low shifts off the
the east and stable drier air will take place.  There is the
possibility of some showers over the Blue and Wallowa Mountains to
become brief thunderstorms.  So have added isolated thunder through
the late afternoon for these areas.  Winds are already breezy with
the system coming in and will increase with daytime heating and
increased mixing.  Ellensburg looks like it will see the strongest
sustained winds 25-30 mph.  Right now they are forecast to be near
to slightly below Advisory criteria, so no highlights are planned,
but will monitor the obs and make adjustments where necessary.
Additionally, patchy blowing dust might be an issue across the basin
and foothills with todays wind.   Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...An upper low pressure system is
crossing the region and CWA at this time. There is limited moisture
with this system. However there is enough instability and moisture
to warrant isolated to scattered showers over the mountains today
and there will be a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms over
the northeast mountains. Current radar imagery shows some showers
associated with this system over the northern Blue Mountain
foothills and the Blue Mountains. The upper low will move to the
northeast of the CWA tonight. This will result in decreasing showers
and clouds with a dry and stable northwest flow behind it by
Saturday morning. Then the dry and stable conditions will persist
into Sunday. There will be a warming trend through the short term
period as high pressure builds over the region. It will be breezy to
windy today and then light winds are expected on Saturday and
Sunday. 88

LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday...An upper level
ridge will give way to a weak short wave moving through the region
on Monday afternoon and evening so I have a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the Blue Mountains to the Ochoco-John Day Highlands
and along the east slopes of the Washington Cascades for Monday
afternoon/evening. after the short wave exits the region the ridge
builds back over the forecast area for dry and stable conditions
from Tuesday through Thursday.  Polan

AVIATION...12Z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours.  A mid/upper level trough will continue moving across the
interior Pacific Northwest today with increasing clouds. A few
showers are possible mainly in the Blue Mountains, the Foothills of
the Blue Mountains and the Lower Columbia Basin this morning.
Although the probability is not very high and therefore not
anticipated, there could be an isolated thunderstorm associated with
the trough this morning. Will not be mentioning thunder in the TAFs
due to low confidence. Westerly winds are currently 10 to 20 kts at
most sites. Expect winds to increase 15 to 25 kts after 18z.  Polan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  49  80  53 /  20  10   0   0
ALW  73  54  81  59 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  77  52  84  54 /  20  10   0   0
YKM  75  48  83  53 /  10  10   0   0
HRI  74  51  84  53 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  68  49  80  51 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  69  39  80  45 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  65  43  76  46 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  68  43  79  48 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  72  53  85  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

89/99/99




000
FXUS66 KPDT 241537
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
837 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...Scattered to isolated showers this afternoon and evening.
Coverage should diminish throughout the day as low shifts off the
the east and stable drier air will take place.  There is the
possibility of some showers over the Blue and Wallowa Mountains to
become brief thunderstorms.  So have added isolated thunder through
the late afternoon for these areas.  Winds are already breezy with
the system coming in and will increase with daytime heating and
increased mixing.  Ellensburg looks like it will see the strongest
sustained winds 25-30 mph.  Right now they are forecast to be near
to slightly below Advisory criteria, so no highlights are planned,
but will monitor the obs and make adjustments where necessary.
Additionally, patchy blowing dust might be an issue across the basin
and foothills with todays wind.   Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...An upper low pressure system is
crossing the region and CWA at this time. There is limited moisture
with this system. However there is enough instability and moisture
to warrant isolated to scattered showers over the mountains today
and there will be a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms over
the northeast mountains. Current radar imagery shows some showers
associated with this system over the northern Blue Mountain
foothills and the Blue Mountains. The upper low will move to the
northeast of the CWA tonight. This will result in decreasing showers
and clouds with a dry and stable northwest flow behind it by
Saturday morning. Then the dry and stable conditions will persist
into Sunday. There will be a warming trend through the short term
period as high pressure builds over the region. It will be breezy to
windy today and then light winds are expected on Saturday and
Sunday. 88

LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday...An upper level
ridge will give way to a weak short wave moving through the region
on Monday afternoon and evening so I have a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the Blue Mountains to the Ochoco-John Day Highlands
and along the east slopes of the Washington Cascades for Monday
afternoon/evening. after the short wave exits the region the ridge
builds back over the forecast area for dry and stable conditions
from Tuesday through Thursday.  Polan

AVIATION...12Z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours.  A mid/upper level trough will continue moving across the
interior Pacific Northwest today with increasing clouds. A few
showers are possible mainly in the Blue Mountains, the Foothills of
the Blue Mountains and the Lower Columbia Basin this morning.
Although the probability is not very high and therefore not
anticipated, there could be an isolated thunderstorm associated with
the trough this morning. Will not be mentioning thunder in the TAFs
due to low confidence. Westerly winds are currently 10 to 20 kts at
most sites. Expect winds to increase 15 to 25 kts after 18z.  Polan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  49  80  53 /  20  10   0   0
ALW  73  54  81  59 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  77  52  84  54 /  20  10   0   0
YKM  75  48  83  53 /  10  10   0   0
HRI  74  51  84  53 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  68  49  80  51 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  69  39  80  45 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  65  43  76  46 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  68  43  79  48 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  72  53  85  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

89/99/99




000
FXUS65 KBOI 241533
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
933 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...Wind advisory in effect until 6 pm for the southeast
part of the CWA. Currently winds are gusting at or above 30 mph
in Jerome and Twin Falls. Otherwise, a few showers were moving
east across the higher terrain of the north and skies were mostly
sunny over the southern half of the area. No changes will be made
to the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with mid to upper level cloud cover. Gusty winds
through this evening, west-northwest 15-20kts with gusts 25-35kts.
Highest gusts expected east of KMUO with sustained winds 20-30kts
and gusts as high as 40kts. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
north of a KBKE-KMYL line through this afternoon. Winds aloft to
10k feet MSL southwest 10-35kts.

Weekend outlook...VFR. Mostly clear skies with light winds expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...Main impact weather today
will be winds as an upper level low situated over Washington state
moves east across the northern Rockies. West to northwest winds
are expected to reach advisory levels across the Western Magic
Valley, Camas Prairie and Southern Twin Falls County by this
afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens up. Cold front
associated with the system looks like it has moved through the
forecast area and cooler air behind it will keep daytime highs
today about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Little moisture with
this system and the chance of measurable precipitation will stay
across the north, with just a few sprinkles possible this morning
further south. Models continue show a little instability across
the north for a slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Winds
will diminish toward sunset with limited cloud cover and dry air
allowing for cool overnight temperatures tonight. Rising heights
on Saturday will trend temperatures up but afternoon high
temperatures will be a little below normal with dry weather and
light winds.

LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday...Latest model runs
continue the trend of dry and warm conditions through the extended
period. Ridge of high pressure will remain in place over the
Intermountain West with models still showing a few shortwave troughs
moving through the flow Tuesday through Thursday. No precipitation
is expected over the forecast area as these shortwave troughs move
through the flow as any moisture with these systems will remain
north of the forecast area. Temperatures through the extended period
will average 7-10 degrees above normal.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening IDZ016-028-030.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JC
PREV SHORT TERM...TL
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 241004
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
300 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...An upper low pressure system is
crossing the region and CWA at this time. There is limited moisture
with this system. However there is enough instability and moisture
to warrant isolated to scattered showers over the mountains today
and there will be a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms over
the northeast mountains. Current radar imagery shows some showers
associated with this system over the northern Blue Mountain
foothills and the Blue Mountains. The upper low will move to the
northeast of the CWA tonight. This will result in decreasing showers
and clouds with a dry and stable northwest flow behind it by
Saturday morning. Then the dry and stable conditions will persist
into Sunday. There will be a warming trend through the short term
period as high pressure builds over the region. It will be breezy to
windy today and then light winds are expected on Saturday and
Sunday. 88

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday...An upper level
ridge will give way to a weak short wave moving through the region
on Monday afternoon and evening so I have a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the Blue Mountains to the Ochoco-John Day Highlands
and along the east slopes of the Washington Cascades for Monday
afternoon/evening. after the short wave exits the region the ridge
builds back over the forecast area for dry and stable conditions
from Tuesday through Thursday.  Polan

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours.  A mid/upper level trough will continue moving across the
interior Pacific Northwest today with increasing clouds. A few
showers are possible mainly in the Blue Mountains, the Foothills of
the Blue Mountains and the Lower Columbia Basin this morning.
Although the probability is not very high and therefore not
anticipated, there could be an isolated thunderstorm associated with
the trough this morning. Will not be mentioning thunder in the TAFs
due to low confidence. Westerly winds are currently 10 to 20 kts at
most sites. Expect winds to increase 15 to 25 kts after 18z.  Polan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  48  80  53 /  20  10   0   0
ALW  72  54  81  59 /  30  10   0   0
PSC  76  51  84  54 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  75  46  83  53 /  10  10   0   0
HRI  74  50  84  53 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  68  49  80  51 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  69  36  80  45 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  65  43  76  46 /  40  10   0   0
GCD  67  42  79  48 /  20   0   0   0
DLS  71  52  85  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

88/99/99




000
FXUS66 KPDT 241004
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
300 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...An upper low pressure system is
crossing the region and CWA at this time. There is limited moisture
with this system. However there is enough instability and moisture
to warrant isolated to scattered showers over the mountains today
and there will be a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms over
the northeast mountains. Current radar imagery shows some showers
associated with this system over the northern Blue Mountain
foothills and the Blue Mountains. The upper low will move to the
northeast of the CWA tonight. This will result in decreasing showers
and clouds with a dry and stable northwest flow behind it by
Saturday morning. Then the dry and stable conditions will persist
into Sunday. There will be a warming trend through the short term
period as high pressure builds over the region. It will be breezy to
windy today and then light winds are expected on Saturday and
Sunday. 88

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday...An upper level
ridge will give way to a weak short wave moving through the region
on Monday afternoon and evening so I have a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the Blue Mountains to the Ochoco-John Day Highlands
and along the east slopes of the Washington Cascades for Monday
afternoon/evening. after the short wave exits the region the ridge
builds back over the forecast area for dry and stable conditions
from Tuesday through Thursday.  Polan

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours.  A mid/upper level trough will continue moving across the
interior Pacific Northwest today with increasing clouds. A few
showers are possible mainly in the Blue Mountains, the Foothills of
the Blue Mountains and the Lower Columbia Basin this morning.
Although the probability is not very high and therefore not
anticipated, there could be an isolated thunderstorm associated with
the trough this morning. Will not be mentioning thunder in the TAFs
due to low confidence. Westerly winds are currently 10 to 20 kts at
most sites. Expect winds to increase 15 to 25 kts after 18z.  Polan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  48  80  53 /  20  10   0   0
ALW  72  54  81  59 /  30  10   0   0
PSC  76  51  84  54 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  75  46  83  53 /  10  10   0   0
HRI  74  50  84  53 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  68  49  80  51 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  69  36  80  45 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  65  43  76  46 /  40  10   0   0
GCD  67  42  79  48 /  20   0   0   0
DLS  71  52  85  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

88/99/99




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240958
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
259 AM PDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure system and a few rain showers
will remain over the region this morning...then move east of the area
this afternoon/evening. High pressure will build into the area
tonight and Saturday, bringing a period of dry weather and warmer
temperatures that will extend into the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Sunday)...An upper level low pressure
system remains over WA/OR this morning with the sfc front well to
the east. The region received decent rainfall Thursday afternoon/
evening as the upper level low moved into the area. There were
several reports in the 0.3 to 0.6 inch range and a few stations in
the higher terrain reported near 1 inch.

Showers will continue through the morning hours today...then begin to
quickly taper off this afternoon/evening as the upper level low moves
east of the area. A weak ridge of high pressure will begin to move
into the area tonight and Saturday which will mark the beginning of a
very nice stretch of summer weather that will last well into next
week. Overall, expect a few clouds along the coast and sunny skies
elsewhere Sat and Sun.  This weekend, temperatures will run in the
mid 60s on the coast and upper 70s to lower 80s inland.  The warm,
pleasant weather will persist well into next week. Very nice summer
weather expected.  /twilde

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)...Previous discussion
follows...Broad upper level ridging will continue to bring warm and
dry conditions to the forecast area through late next week.
This will bring sunny skies to the interior, with temps warming into
the mid 80s by Tuesday. Models continue to show several weak
shortwaves moving across the Pac NW next week. These shortwaves will
help to deepen the marine layer along the coast which, combined with
an onshore flow pattern, should keep temps in the 60s under partly
cloudy skies. All in all, beautiful/seasonal weather is expected next
week. /64

 Models indicate a very weak shortwave traverses the area late Sunday
into Monday morning, but not strong enough for more than some
increasing clouds.
&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR conditions early this morning across nw
Oregon...although occasional MVFR conditions have been seen mainly
along the coast as scattered showers continued to move through. As
the upper low moves across the region this morning, expect scattered
showers to continue. VFR conditions expected to remain dominant at
TAF sites, but temporary MVFR conditions remain likely at times
through 20z. Showers expected to diminish later in the day, with
diminishing chances for MVFR conditions through 01z. Mainly VFR
flight conditions expected tonight after 01z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Mainly VFR conditions today and tonight, but
temporary MVFR conditions can be expected through 20z as scattered
showers continue. Just a slight chance of seeing conditions lowering
to MVFR category between 20z and 01z.

&&

.MARINE...A weak trough of low pres will move e across the waters
early this morning. overnight into early Fri. continue to expect
winds to remain mainly under 20 kt, but there is a chance for
isolated gusts 20 to 25 kt over the northern portions of PZZ250 and
PZZ270. A ridge of high pres pushes in later today and remains into
Sat. As a trough of low pres builds up along the S Oregon coast late
Sat into Sat night will see north winds increasing by late Sat, with
gusts likely to reach small craft criteria. The north winds are
expected to continue into early next week. With the increase in
north winds, steep seas are likely to develop as a result of the
wind waves and fresh swell. Wave heights however are expected to
remain under 10 ft.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

Interact with us via social media:
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 240943 CCA
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Boise ID
343 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...Main impact weather today
will be winds as an upper level low situated over Washington state
moves east across the northern Rockies. West to northwest winds
are expected to reach advisory levels across the Western Magic
Valley, Camas Prarie and Southern Twin Falls County by this
afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens up. Cold front
associated with the system looks like it has moved through the
forecast area and cooler air behind it will keep daytime highs
today about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Little moisture with
this system and the chance of measurable precipitation will stay
across the north, with just a few sprinkles possible this morning
further south. Models continue show a little instability across
the north for a slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Winds
will diminish toward sunset with limited cloud cover and dry air
allowing for cool overnight temperatures tonight. Rising heights
on Saturday will trend temperatures up but afternoon high
temperatures will be a little below normal with dry weather and
light winds.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday...Latest model runs
continue the trend of dry and warm conditions through the extended
period. Ridge of high pressure will remain in place over the
Intermountain West with models still showing a few shortwave troughs
moving through the flow Tuesday through Thursday. No precipitation
is expected over the forecast area as these shortwave troughs move
through the flow as any moisture with these systems will remain
north of the forecast area. Temperatures through the extended period
will average 7-10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Scattered to broken mid-level clouds. Cold front
will move over the forecast area this morning. Widely scattered
showers, mainly north of a KGCD-KSNT line. Surface winds westerly 5-
15 knots this morning, increasing to 10-20 knots this afternoon with
gusts to near 30 knots, expect in the Snake River Valley east of
KMUO with sustained winds of 25-30 knots and gusts of 35-40 knots.
Winds aloft southwesterly 25-35 knots up through 10K feet MSL.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. Mostly clear skies with light winds.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
     IDZ016-028-030.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 240935
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
335 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...Main impact weather today
will be winds as an upper level low situated over Washington state
moves east across the northern Rockies. West to northwest winds
are expected to reach advisory levels across the Western Magic
Valley by this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens up.
Cold front associated with the system looks like it has moved
through the forecast area and cooler air behind it will keep
daytime highs today about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Little
moisture with this system and the chance of measurable precipitation
will stay across the north, with just a few sprinkles possible
this morning further south. Models continue show a little
instability across the north for a slight chance of an afternoon
thunderstorm. Winds will diminish toward sunset with limited
cloud cover and dry air allowing for cool overnight temperatures
tonight. Rising heights on Saturday will trend temperatures up but
afternoon high temperatures will be a little below normal with
dry weather and light winds.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday...Latest model runs
continue the trend of dry and warm conditions through the extended
period. Ridge of high pressure will remain in place over the
Intermountain West with models still showing a few shortwave troughs
moving through the flow Tuesday through Thursday. No precipitation
is expected over the forecast area as these shortwave troughs move
through the flow as any moisture with these systems will remain
north of the forecast area. Temperatures through the extended period
will average 7-10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Scattered to broken mid-level clouds. Cold front
will move over the forecast area this morning. Widely scattered
showers, mainly north of a KGCD-KSNT line. Surface winds westerly 5-
15 knots this morning, increasing to 10-20 knots this afternoon with
gusts to near 30 knots, expect in the Snake River Valley east of
KMUO with sustained winds of 25-30 knots and gusts of 35-40 knots.
Winds aloft southwesterly 25-35 knots up through 10K feet MSL.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. Mostly clear skies with light winds.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
     IDZ016-028-030.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240800
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
100 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...24/00Z NAM/GFS/EC in.

A long wave upper level trough is now moving through the Pacific
Northwest. The associated surface front has now moved off to the
east. The associated precipitation has been light and most of it
fell along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin...along with the
adjacent Cascades. Recorded amounts were mostly less than 0.10
inches...but a number of stations along the coast reported 0.10
to 0.50 inches. Precipitation is diminishing now and should end
later this morning.

That`s all the precipitation that will fall over the Medford CWA
for at least the next week...except possibly some drizzle near the
coast. A broad ridge will build over the area...forcing the storm
track well to the north of the area. Once the frontal clouds
clear...skies will be mostly clear over the area except for marine
stratus over the coastal waters...moving into the coast and Umpqua
Basin in the night through morning hours. A short wave embedded
in southwest flow aloft may bring some drizzle to the coast Sunday
night into Monday. The 24/00Z GFS solution hints at some
convection on Monday afternoon and evening due to that same short
wave...but less than depicted in the 23/18z solution. It looks to
be quite dry then so will just keep the current ghost POPs in the
forecast for now.

The relatively cool temperatures will last one more day...the
inland highs on Friday will be around 5 to 10 degrees below
normal. High temperatures along the coast will be near
normal...except for the Brookings area...where low level easterly
flow will allow temperatures to warm to about 10 degrees above
normal. High temperatures on Monday will be similar to the Sunday
highs...but the lows will be several degrees warmer.

However...temperatures will warm quickly as the ridge builds in.
Inland highs on Saturday will bounce back up to around 5 degrees
above normal. Sunday highs will be warmer still...5 to 10 degrees
above normal. High temperatures on Monday will be similar to the
Sunday highs...but the lows will be several degrees warmer.

Long term discussion from the Thursday afternoon AFD...Tue June
28th - Friday July 1st) The models remain in pretty good agreement
in the extended with a few minor differences in details. The mean
ridge is expected to be positioned southeast of the forecast area,
so were not expecting any major heat wave. Max temperatures will
heat up, but were not expecting anything of significance with
readings averaging 10-15 degrees above normal. Odds are we`ll
remain dry through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 24/06Z TAF cycle...Areas of MVFR cigs along
the coast and in the Umpqua Basin will improve to VFR Friday
morning when a drier air mass moves in. Partial mountain obscuration
is also expected tonight mainly along and west of the Cascades.
Elsewhere, VFR cigs will continue for the next 24 hours. SK

&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT fri 24 June 2016...A thermal trough
will redevelop today...bringing a return of strong north winds and
very steep wind driven seas to the coastal waters through the
weekend. Winds and seas will peak in the afternoons and evenings,
with the most hazardous conditions expected south of Cape Blanco.
This pattern will continue through much of next week. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to
        11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 5 PM Friday to 11
        PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday
        for PZZ376.

$$

15/15/11




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240800
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
100 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...24/00Z NAM/GFS/EC in.

A long wave upper level trough is now moving through the Pacific
Northwest. The associated surface front has now moved off to the
east. The associated precipitation has been light and most of it
fell along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin...along with the
adjacent Cascades. Recorded amounts were mostly less than 0.10
inches...but a number of stations along the coast reported 0.10
to 0.50 inches. Precipitation is diminishing now and should end
later this morning.

That`s all the precipitation that will fall over the Medford CWA
for at least the next week...except possibly some drizzle near the
coast. A broad ridge will build over the area...forcing the storm
track well to the north of the area. Once the frontal clouds
clear...skies will be mostly clear over the area except for marine
stratus over the coastal waters...moving into the coast and Umpqua
Basin in the night through morning hours. A short wave embedded
in southwest flow aloft may bring some drizzle to the coast Sunday
night into Monday. The 24/00Z GFS solution hints at some
convection on Monday afternoon and evening due to that same short
wave...but less than depicted in the 23/18z solution. It looks to
be quite dry then so will just keep the current ghost POPs in the
forecast for now.

The relatively cool temperatures will last one more day...the
inland highs on Friday will be around 5 to 10 degrees below
normal. High temperatures along the coast will be near
normal...except for the Brookings area...where low level easterly
flow will allow temperatures to warm to about 10 degrees above
normal. High temperatures on Monday will be similar to the Sunday
highs...but the lows will be several degrees warmer.

However...temperatures will warm quickly as the ridge builds in.
Inland highs on Saturday will bounce back up to around 5 degrees
above normal. Sunday highs will be warmer still...5 to 10 degrees
above normal. High temperatures on Monday will be similar to the
Sunday highs...but the lows will be several degrees warmer.

Long term discussion from the Thursday afternoon AFD...Tue June
28th - Friday July 1st) The models remain in pretty good agreement
in the extended with a few minor differences in details. The mean
ridge is expected to be positioned southeast of the forecast area,
so were not expecting any major heat wave. Max temperatures will
heat up, but were not expecting anything of significance with
readings averaging 10-15 degrees above normal. Odds are we`ll
remain dry through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 24/06Z TAF cycle...Areas of MVFR cigs along
the coast and in the Umpqua Basin will improve to VFR Friday
morning when a drier air mass moves in. Partial mountain obscuration
is also expected tonight mainly along and west of the Cascades.
Elsewhere, VFR cigs will continue for the next 24 hours. SK

&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT fri 24 June 2016...A thermal trough
will redevelop today...bringing a return of strong north winds and
very steep wind driven seas to the coastal waters through the
weekend. Winds and seas will peak in the afternoons and evenings,
with the most hazardous conditions expected south of Cape Blanco.
This pattern will continue through much of next week. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to
        11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 5 PM Friday to 11
        PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday
        for PZZ376.

$$

15/15/11




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240546
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
821 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.Updated aviation discussion.

.DISCUSSION...A mostly dry cold front has moved through the
forecast area today and current temperatures are 5-10 degrees
cooler than yesterday at this time. Gusty winds have accompanied
the front with west to northwest wind gusts about 20-25 mph across
most of the forecast area this afternoon. The precipitation that
has been observed has occurred mostly in the Coast Range, with the
big winner being Charlotte Ridge in northern Coos County,
measuring 0.41 inches in the past 24 hours. Most other locations
that received rainfall measured less than a tenth of an inch. A
few showers will continue through early Friday morning before
most of the rain ends.

The upper trough axis will swing through Friday morning and the
below normal temperatures will stick around for another day...with
afternoon high temperatures expected to be 5-10 degrees below
normal. A drier air mass is moving in, so no precipitation is
expected, and there will be plenty of sunshine.

Please see the previous discussion below for details on a warming
trend starting on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 24/06Z TAF cycle...Satellite imagery and surface
observations indicate predominantly MVFR ceilings along the coast
tonight. We expect a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions to continue
along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin tonight before improving to
VFR Friday morning when a drier air mass moves in. Partial mountain
obscuration is also expected tonight mainly along and west of the
Cascades. Elsewhere, VFR cigs will continue for the next 24 hours. SK

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Thu 23 June 2016...Light to moderate
northwest winds are being observed behind the cold front. Seas
will remain relatively low tonight. A thermal trough will
redevelop Friday into the weekend...bringing a return of strong
north winds and choppy seas with gales possible south of Cape
Blanco -Sven/SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 241 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...No significant changes were made to the forecast
this afternoon. The wind shift line associated with the cold front
has moved to the east side and is likely across Modoc and eastern
Lake counties right now. As expected, gusty winds have developed
ahead of and in the wake of the front, but it is producing little
more than clouds for most of our area. Webcams at the coast show
some low clouds, fog, and drizzle or light rain right at the
coastline, but little else. As the upper trough moves over
tonight, the likelihood for showers will increase a bit further
inland.

The upper trough axis moves east of us tomorrow morning, but
onshore flow will keep some clouds in the area and result in one
more relatively cool day. On Saturday, a flat upper ridge begins
to build over the PacNW and remains in place pretty much through
the remainder of the forecast period. There may be weak
disturbances in the southwest flow aloft, but they won`t amount to
anything other than high cloud at times. As a thermal trough
develops along the coast Saturday, temperatures will rise quickly
with highs around 90 in Medford then possibly into the mid 90s by
Sunday. -Wright

LONG TERM...June 27th (Monday)- July 1st (Friday.) The models
remain in pretty good agreement in the extended with a few minor
differences in details. The mean ridge is expected to be positioned
southeast of the forecast area, so were not expecting any major heat
wave. Max temperatures will heat up, but were not expecting anything
of significance with readings averaging 10-15 degrees above normal.
Odds are we`ll remain dry through the extended period. The one fly
in the ointment could be Monday afternoon. The GFS and EC show a
weak upper trough approaching southwest Oregon late Monday morning,
then moving inland in the afternoon. The GFS shows marginal
instability Monday afternoon in western Siskiyou county and
Cascades, especially from around Crater Lake north. However mid
level moisture is lacking. Both models show some QPF along the
Cascades (the EC shows a greater coverage, but suspect this may be
overdone). For now we`ll keep ghost pops in the forecast, but it`s
something that will need to be watched in the coming days.
-Petrucelli

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Thu 23 June 2016...The main
concern through this evening will be gusty winds east of the
Cascades. The strongest winds will be over the higher terrain east
of the Cascades with frequent 30 to 35 mph gusts...perhaps even up
to 40 mph in the windier spots. The good news is that temperatures
will be cooler and relative humidities higher into this evening.
We`ll continue to headline this in the afternoon fire weather
forecast. So far little or no rain has occured, except for the
northern portions of fire zone 615 and northwest portion of fire
zone 616. Could not rule out a few sprinkles or light showers in
parts of 617 and maybe northern 623 through this evening, but
probably not amounting to much more than a couple hundreths of an
inch. Elsewhere no precipitation is expected.

An upper low will swing north of the area Friday morning, then move
east Friday afternoon. The models show a relatively strong west to
northwest flow at 700 mb for this time of the year as the upper
trough moves through, especially Friday morning. Therefore we expect
winds to be strongest in the morning hours Friday east of the
Cascades and mostly confined to the higher terrain. It will still be
windy in the afternoon, but they will be trending lower.
Temperatures should remain cool and relative humidities higher on
Friday and and it will be dry.

Dry and much warmer weather is on the way starting Saturday and
could last into at least the middle of next week. While we are not
expecting a full blown heat wave, max temperatures are expected to
average 10-15 degrees above normal. A thermal trough will redevelop
over this weekend bringing further drying above the mid slopes along
with mild overnight temperatures.

The only fly in the ointment will be Monday. The GFS hints at
marginal instability along the Cascades, particularly from around
Crater Lake north, but the mid level moisture is lacking.
Interesting the EC and GFS show some qpf, but suspect this may be
overdone. Bottom line is that we`ll have to keep a close eye on
this and see how the models trend in the coming days. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 5 PM Friday to 11
     PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday
     for PZZ376.

$$

NSK/TRW/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240546
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
821 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.Updated aviation discussion.

.DISCUSSION...A mostly dry cold front has moved through the
forecast area today and current temperatures are 5-10 degrees
cooler than yesterday at this time. Gusty winds have accompanied
the front with west to northwest wind gusts about 20-25 mph across
most of the forecast area this afternoon. The precipitation that
has been observed has occurred mostly in the Coast Range, with the
big winner being Charlotte Ridge in northern Coos County,
measuring 0.41 inches in the past 24 hours. Most other locations
that received rainfall measured less than a tenth of an inch. A
few showers will continue through early Friday morning before
most of the rain ends.

The upper trough axis will swing through Friday morning and the
below normal temperatures will stick around for another day...with
afternoon high temperatures expected to be 5-10 degrees below
normal. A drier air mass is moving in, so no precipitation is
expected, and there will be plenty of sunshine.

Please see the previous discussion below for details on a warming
trend starting on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 24/06Z TAF cycle...Satellite imagery and surface
observations indicate predominantly MVFR ceilings along the coast
tonight. We expect a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions to continue
along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin tonight before improving to
VFR Friday morning when a drier air mass moves in. Partial mountain
obscuration is also expected tonight mainly along and west of the
Cascades. Elsewhere, VFR cigs will continue for the next 24 hours. SK

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Thu 23 June 2016...Light to moderate
northwest winds are being observed behind the cold front. Seas
will remain relatively low tonight. A thermal trough will
redevelop Friday into the weekend...bringing a return of strong
north winds and choppy seas with gales possible south of Cape
Blanco -Sven/SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 241 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...No significant changes were made to the forecast
this afternoon. The wind shift line associated with the cold front
has moved to the east side and is likely across Modoc and eastern
Lake counties right now. As expected, gusty winds have developed
ahead of and in the wake of the front, but it is producing little
more than clouds for most of our area. Webcams at the coast show
some low clouds, fog, and drizzle or light rain right at the
coastline, but little else. As the upper trough moves over
tonight, the likelihood for showers will increase a bit further
inland.

The upper trough axis moves east of us tomorrow morning, but
onshore flow will keep some clouds in the area and result in one
more relatively cool day. On Saturday, a flat upper ridge begins
to build over the PacNW and remains in place pretty much through
the remainder of the forecast period. There may be weak
disturbances in the southwest flow aloft, but they won`t amount to
anything other than high cloud at times. As a thermal trough
develops along the coast Saturday, temperatures will rise quickly
with highs around 90 in Medford then possibly into the mid 90s by
Sunday. -Wright

LONG TERM...June 27th (Monday)- July 1st (Friday.) The models
remain in pretty good agreement in the extended with a few minor
differences in details. The mean ridge is expected to be positioned
southeast of the forecast area, so were not expecting any major heat
wave. Max temperatures will heat up, but were not expecting anything
of significance with readings averaging 10-15 degrees above normal.
Odds are we`ll remain dry through the extended period. The one fly
in the ointment could be Monday afternoon. The GFS and EC show a
weak upper trough approaching southwest Oregon late Monday morning,
then moving inland in the afternoon. The GFS shows marginal
instability Monday afternoon in western Siskiyou county and
Cascades, especially from around Crater Lake north. However mid
level moisture is lacking. Both models show some QPF along the
Cascades (the EC shows a greater coverage, but suspect this may be
overdone). For now we`ll keep ghost pops in the forecast, but it`s
something that will need to be watched in the coming days.
-Petrucelli

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Thu 23 June 2016...The main
concern through this evening will be gusty winds east of the
Cascades. The strongest winds will be over the higher terrain east
of the Cascades with frequent 30 to 35 mph gusts...perhaps even up
to 40 mph in the windier spots. The good news is that temperatures
will be cooler and relative humidities higher into this evening.
We`ll continue to headline this in the afternoon fire weather
forecast. So far little or no rain has occured, except for the
northern portions of fire zone 615 and northwest portion of fire
zone 616. Could not rule out a few sprinkles or light showers in
parts of 617 and maybe northern 623 through this evening, but
probably not amounting to much more than a couple hundreths of an
inch. Elsewhere no precipitation is expected.

An upper low will swing north of the area Friday morning, then move
east Friday afternoon. The models show a relatively strong west to
northwest flow at 700 mb for this time of the year as the upper
trough moves through, especially Friday morning. Therefore we expect
winds to be strongest in the morning hours Friday east of the
Cascades and mostly confined to the higher terrain. It will still be
windy in the afternoon, but they will be trending lower.
Temperatures should remain cool and relative humidities higher on
Friday and and it will be dry.

Dry and much warmer weather is on the way starting Saturday and
could last into at least the middle of next week. While we are not
expecting a full blown heat wave, max temperatures are expected to
average 10-15 degrees above normal. A thermal trough will redevelop
over this weekend bringing further drying above the mid slopes along
with mild overnight temperatures.

The only fly in the ointment will be Monday. The GFS hints at
marginal instability along the Cascades, particularly from around
Crater Lake north, but the mid level moisture is lacking.
Interesting the EC and GFS show some qpf, but suspect this may be
overdone. Bottom line is that we`ll have to keep a close eye on
this and see how the models trend in the coming days. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 5 PM Friday to 11
     PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday
     for PZZ376.

$$

NSK/TRW/SBN




000
FXUS66 KPDT 240534 CCA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1034 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

Corrected Time Stamp

.UPDATE...Satellite continues to show upper level low pressure system
off the coast.  Showers along the higher terrains will be possible
tonight.  Winds will be breezy and mainly westerly as the low moves
inland overnight.  These winds will persist through the the day and
into the evening on Friday.  There is the possibility of some mid
level forcing and instability overnight that could result in a
shower or even thunderstorm over the lower elevations of Washington,
but confidence is less than 10 percent and therefore will not be
mentioned in the forecast.  Temperatures tomorrow will be cooler as
the low moves overhead and the coolest air aloft will be in place.
Winds will also keep the air well mixed and limit the heating. Still
highs will be mild and in the 70s for the lower elevations, with 60s
mountains.  Strongest winds expected in the Kittitas Valley, but do
not anticipate and advisories. Patchy blowing dust could be an
issue, but again confidence is to low to mention in the
forecast. Weber

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours.  A system will continue to move inland the period with
increasing clouds.  A few showers are possible region wide tonight,
although it is not anticipated, there could be an isolated
thunderstorm associated. Will not be mentioning thunder in the TAFS
due to low confidence.  Westerly winds are currently 10 to 20 kts at
most sites.  Expect these winds to increase 15 to 25 kts after 18z.
Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...An upper level low pressure
system is located off the Washington coast this afternoon. The
cyclonic flow around this low is bringing mostly cloudy skies along
with isolated to scattered showers to parts of the area. Introduced
a slight chance of a thunderstorm early this evening over the east
Slopes of the Washington Cascades and even into the Kittitas
Valley...as this is where the latest SPC meso-analysis shows some
negative LIs and marginal MUCAPE, near 500 J/Kg. Expect this trend to
continue through tonight as the upper low slides across the
Washington Columbia Basin. A vorticity maxima associated with a
shortwave will move through the CWA after midnight tonight...which
should act to further increase shower coverage...especially over the
Blue Mountains. The upper low then quickly swings east of the CWA
Friday morning but a relatively moist NW flow will keep some showers
and even a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast through
the afternoon hours...especially over the Northeast Mountains.
Temperatures will remain cool and below seasonal averages for Friday
afternoon, with highs in the mid 60s to mid-70s in the
valleys/basins and only 50s to lower 60s mountains. This is about 10
degrees below average for this time of year. The other story for
Friday will be the winds. Conditions will likely start off breezy
during the morning and continue right into the afternoon. In the
Columbia Gorge...North-Central Oregon...The Columbia Basin and the
Blue Mountain Foothills expect westerly winds between 15 and 25 MPH
with gusts up to 30-35 MPH through much of the day. The Kittitas
Valley will also be windy with northwest winds 20-30 MPH and gusts
40-45 MPH expected...held off on an advisory for now as winds speeds
are expected to be marginal and confidence in long lived advisory
winds was not quite high enough...will however need to continue to
monitor this potential. Partly cloudy skies Friday evening turn
mostly clear overnight with winds subsiding. A ridge of high
pressure builds over the entire region for the weekend with mostly
clear skies and warming temperatures. By Sunday high temperatures
will reach the mid 80s to lower 90s in the valleys/basins with 70s
to lower 80s mountains. 77

LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday. Above normal temperatures
and generally dry conditions can be expected as a ridge of high
pressure builds over the area.  On Monday, a weak trough of low
pressure will be trying to move into the Pacific Northwest. It
appears that some moisture and instability will be available along
the east slopes of the Washington Cascades and have introduced a
slight chance of thunderstorms for Monday afternoon and evening.
Starting Monday, temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal
with the lower elevations seeing highs in the 90s and then climbing
to mid and upper 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. The mountain areas
will be in the 80s.  93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  71  49  81 /  20  20  10   0
ALW  56  72  55  82 /  20  30  10   0
PSC  56  76  52  85 /  10  20  10   0
YKM  50  75  47  84 /  20  10  10   0
HRI  55  74  51  85 /  10  10  10   0
ELN  50  68  50  81 /  20  20  10   0
RDM  41  69  37  81 /  20  10   0   0
LGD  50  65  44  77 /  40  40  10   0
GCD  48  67  43  80 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  54  71  53  86 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

89/93/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 240534 CCA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1034 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

Corrected Time Stamp

.UPDATE...Satellite continues to show upper level low pressure system
off the coast.  Showers along the higher terrains will be possible
tonight.  Winds will be breezy and mainly westerly as the low moves
inland overnight.  These winds will persist through the the day and
into the evening on Friday.  There is the possibility of some mid
level forcing and instability overnight that could result in a
shower or even thunderstorm over the lower elevations of Washington,
but confidence is less than 10 percent and therefore will not be
mentioned in the forecast.  Temperatures tomorrow will be cooler as
the low moves overhead and the coolest air aloft will be in place.
Winds will also keep the air well mixed and limit the heating. Still
highs will be mild and in the 70s for the lower elevations, with 60s
mountains.  Strongest winds expected in the Kittitas Valley, but do
not anticipate and advisories. Patchy blowing dust could be an
issue, but again confidence is to low to mention in the
forecast. Weber

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours.  A system will continue to move inland the period with
increasing clouds.  A few showers are possible region wide tonight,
although it is not anticipated, there could be an isolated
thunderstorm associated. Will not be mentioning thunder in the TAFS
due to low confidence.  Westerly winds are currently 10 to 20 kts at
most sites.  Expect these winds to increase 15 to 25 kts after 18z.
Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...An upper level low pressure
system is located off the Washington coast this afternoon. The
cyclonic flow around this low is bringing mostly cloudy skies along
with isolated to scattered showers to parts of the area. Introduced
a slight chance of a thunderstorm early this evening over the east
Slopes of the Washington Cascades and even into the Kittitas
Valley...as this is where the latest SPC meso-analysis shows some
negative LIs and marginal MUCAPE, near 500 J/Kg. Expect this trend to
continue through tonight as the upper low slides across the
Washington Columbia Basin. A vorticity maxima associated with a
shortwave will move through the CWA after midnight tonight...which
should act to further increase shower coverage...especially over the
Blue Mountains. The upper low then quickly swings east of the CWA
Friday morning but a relatively moist NW flow will keep some showers
and even a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast through
the afternoon hours...especially over the Northeast Mountains.
Temperatures will remain cool and below seasonal averages for Friday
afternoon, with highs in the mid 60s to mid-70s in the
valleys/basins and only 50s to lower 60s mountains. This is about 10
degrees below average for this time of year. The other story for
Friday will be the winds. Conditions will likely start off breezy
during the morning and continue right into the afternoon. In the
Columbia Gorge...North-Central Oregon...The Columbia Basin and the
Blue Mountain Foothills expect westerly winds between 15 and 25 MPH
with gusts up to 30-35 MPH through much of the day. The Kittitas
Valley will also be windy with northwest winds 20-30 MPH and gusts
40-45 MPH expected...held off on an advisory for now as winds speeds
are expected to be marginal and confidence in long lived advisory
winds was not quite high enough...will however need to continue to
monitor this potential. Partly cloudy skies Friday evening turn
mostly clear overnight with winds subsiding. A ridge of high
pressure builds over the entire region for the weekend with mostly
clear skies and warming temperatures. By Sunday high temperatures
will reach the mid 80s to lower 90s in the valleys/basins with 70s
to lower 80s mountains. 77

LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday. Above normal temperatures
and generally dry conditions can be expected as a ridge of high
pressure builds over the area.  On Monday, a weak trough of low
pressure will be trying to move into the Pacific Northwest. It
appears that some moisture and instability will be available along
the east slopes of the Washington Cascades and have introduced a
slight chance of thunderstorms for Monday afternoon and evening.
Starting Monday, temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal
with the lower elevations seeing highs in the 90s and then climbing
to mid and upper 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. The mountain areas
will be in the 80s.  93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  71  49  81 /  20  20  10   0
ALW  56  72  55  82 /  20  30  10   0
PSC  56  76  52  85 /  10  20  10   0
YKM  50  75  47  84 /  20  10  10   0
HRI  55  74  51  85 /  10  10  10   0
ELN  50  68  50  81 /  20  20  10   0
RDM  41  69  37  81 /  20  10   0   0
LGD  50  65  44  77 /  40  40  10   0
GCD  48  67  43  80 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  54  71  53  86 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

89/93/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 240533 AAA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
828 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

Updated for Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...Satellite continues to show upper level low pressure system
off the coast.  Showers along the higher terrains will be possible
tonight.  Winds will be breezy and mainly westerly as the low moves
inland overnight.  These winds will persist through the the day and
into the evening on Friday.  There is the possibility of some mid
level forcing and instability overnight that could result in a
shower or even thunderstorm over the lower elevations of Washington,
but confidence is less than 10 percent and therefore will not be
mentioned in the forecast.  Temperatures tomorrow will be cooler as
the low moves overhead and the coolest air aloft will be in place.
Winds will also keep the air well mixed and limit the heating. Still
highs will be mild and in the 70s for the lower elevations, with 60s
mountains.  Strongest winds expected in the Kittitas Valley, but do
not anticipate and advisories. Patchy blowing dust could be an
issue, but again confidence is to low to mention in the
forecast. Weber

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours.  A system will continue to move inland the period with
increasing clouds.  A few showers are possible region wide tonight,
although it is not anticipated, there could be an isolated
thunderstorm associated. Will not be mentioning thunder in the TAFS
due to low confidence.  Westerly winds are currently 10 to 20 kts at
most sites.  Expect these winds to increase 15 to 25 kts after 18z.
Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...An upper level low pressure
system is located off the Washington coast this afternoon. The
cyclonic flow around this low is bringing mostly cloudy skies along
with isolated to scattered showers to parts of the area. Introduced
a slight chance of a thunderstorm early this evening over the east
Slopes of the Washington Cascades and even into the Kittitas
Valley...as this is where the latest SPC meso-analysis shows some
negative LIs and marginal MUCAPE, near 500 J/Kg. Expect this trend to
continue through tonight as the upper low slides across the
Washington Columbia Basin. A vorticity maxima associated with a
shortwave will move through the CWA after midnight tonight...which
should act to further increase shower coverage...especially over the
Blue Mountains. The upper low then quickly swings east of the CWA
Friday morning but a relatively moist NW flow will keep some showers
and even a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast through
the afternoon hours...especially over the Northeast Mountains.
Temperatures will remain cool and below seasonal averages for Friday
afternoon, with highs in the mid 60s to mid-70s in the
valleys/basins and only 50s to lower 60s mountains. This is about 10
degrees below average for this time of year. The other story for
Friday will be the winds. Conditions will likely start off breezy
during the morning and continue right into the afternoon. In the
Columbia Gorge...North-Central Oregon...The Columbia Basin and the
Blue Mountain Foothills expect westerly winds between 15 and 25 MPH
with gusts up to 30-35 MPH through much of the day. The Kittitas
Valley will also be windy with northwest winds 20-30 MPH and gusts
40-45 MPH expected...held off on an advisory for now as winds speeds
are expected to be marginal and confidence in long lived advisory
winds was not quite high enough...will however need to continue to
monitor this potential. Partly cloudy skies Friday evening turn
mostly clear overnight with winds subsiding. A ridge of high
pressure builds over the entire region for the weekend with mostly
clear skies and warming temperatures. By Sunday high temperatures
will reach the mid 80s to lower 90s in the valleys/basins with 70s
to lower 80s mountains. 77

LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday. Above normal temperatures
and generally dry conditions can be expected as a ridge of high
pressure builds over the area.  On Monday, a weak trough of low
pressure will be trying to move into the Pacific Northwest. It
appears that some moisture and instability will be available along
the east slopes of the Washington Cascades and have introduced a
slight chance of thunderstorms for Monday afternoon and evening.
Starting Monday, temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal
with the lower elevations seeing highs in the 90s and then climbing
to mid and upper 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. The mountain areas
will be in the 80s.  93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  71  49  81 /  20  20  10   0
ALW  56  72  55  82 /  20  30  10   0
PSC  56  76  52  85 /  10  20  10   0
YKM  50  75  47  84 /  20  10  10   0
HRI  55  74  51  85 /  10  10  10   0
ELN  50  68  50  81 /  20  20  10   0
RDM  41  69  37  81 /  20  10   0   0
LGD  50  65  44  77 /  40  40  10   0
GCD  48  67  43  80 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  54  71  53  86 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

89/93/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 240533 AAA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
828 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

Updated for Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...Satellite continues to show upper level low pressure system
off the coast.  Showers along the higher terrains will be possible
tonight.  Winds will be breezy and mainly westerly as the low moves
inland overnight.  These winds will persist through the the day and
into the evening on Friday.  There is the possibility of some mid
level forcing and instability overnight that could result in a
shower or even thunderstorm over the lower elevations of Washington,
but confidence is less than 10 percent and therefore will not be
mentioned in the forecast.  Temperatures tomorrow will be cooler as
the low moves overhead and the coolest air aloft will be in place.
Winds will also keep the air well mixed and limit the heating. Still
highs will be mild and in the 70s for the lower elevations, with 60s
mountains.  Strongest winds expected in the Kittitas Valley, but do
not anticipate and advisories. Patchy blowing dust could be an
issue, but again confidence is to low to mention in the
forecast. Weber

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours.  A system will continue to move inland the period with
increasing clouds.  A few showers are possible region wide tonight,
although it is not anticipated, there could be an isolated
thunderstorm associated. Will not be mentioning thunder in the TAFS
due to low confidence.  Westerly winds are currently 10 to 20 kts at
most sites.  Expect these winds to increase 15 to 25 kts after 18z.
Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...An upper level low pressure
system is located off the Washington coast this afternoon. The
cyclonic flow around this low is bringing mostly cloudy skies along
with isolated to scattered showers to parts of the area. Introduced
a slight chance of a thunderstorm early this evening over the east
Slopes of the Washington Cascades and even into the Kittitas
Valley...as this is where the latest SPC meso-analysis shows some
negative LIs and marginal MUCAPE, near 500 J/Kg. Expect this trend to
continue through tonight as the upper low slides across the
Washington Columbia Basin. A vorticity maxima associated with a
shortwave will move through the CWA after midnight tonight...which
should act to further increase shower coverage...especially over the
Blue Mountains. The upper low then quickly swings east of the CWA
Friday morning but a relatively moist NW flow will keep some showers
and even a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast through
the afternoon hours...especially over the Northeast Mountains.
Temperatures will remain cool and below seasonal averages for Friday
afternoon, with highs in the mid 60s to mid-70s in the
valleys/basins and only 50s to lower 60s mountains. This is about 10
degrees below average for this time of year. The other story for
Friday will be the winds. Conditions will likely start off breezy
during the morning and continue right into the afternoon. In the
Columbia Gorge...North-Central Oregon...The Columbia Basin and the
Blue Mountain Foothills expect westerly winds between 15 and 25 MPH
with gusts up to 30-35 MPH through much of the day. The Kittitas
Valley will also be windy with northwest winds 20-30 MPH and gusts
40-45 MPH expected...held off on an advisory for now as winds speeds
are expected to be marginal and confidence in long lived advisory
winds was not quite high enough...will however need to continue to
monitor this potential. Partly cloudy skies Friday evening turn
mostly clear overnight with winds subsiding. A ridge of high
pressure builds over the entire region for the weekend with mostly
clear skies and warming temperatures. By Sunday high temperatures
will reach the mid 80s to lower 90s in the valleys/basins with 70s
to lower 80s mountains. 77

LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday. Above normal temperatures
and generally dry conditions can be expected as a ridge of high
pressure builds over the area.  On Monday, a weak trough of low
pressure will be trying to move into the Pacific Northwest. It
appears that some moisture and instability will be available along
the east slopes of the Washington Cascades and have introduced a
slight chance of thunderstorms for Monday afternoon and evening.
Starting Monday, temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal
with the lower elevations seeing highs in the 90s and then climbing
to mid and upper 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. The mountain areas
will be in the 80s.  93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  71  49  81 /  20  20  10   0
ALW  56  72  55  82 /  20  30  10   0
PSC  56  76  52  85 /  10  20  10   0
YKM  50  75  47  84 /  20  10  10   0
HRI  55  74  51  85 /  10  10  10   0
ELN  50  68  50  81 /  20  20  10   0
RDM  41  69  37  81 /  20  10   0   0
LGD  50  65  44  77 /  40  40  10   0
GCD  48  67  43  80 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  54  71  53  86 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

89/93/89




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240414
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
913 PM PDT Thu Jun 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure system is moving overhead
tonight, bringing rain showers and cooler temperatures across the
region through mid day Friday before conditions start to dry out and
warm up for the weekend. High pressure will build into the area
Friday night and Saturday,bringing a period of dry weather and warmer
temperatures that should extend into the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday Night through Sunday)...Stalled frontal
boundary has finally started moving off to the east.  It appears that
vertical motion was enhanced by divergence aloft associated with the
upper-level jet. This helped to generate heavier rain this evening in
Clark County and around the Portland Metro area. Currently, the base
of the upper-level trough is sitting right over Astoria, generating
additional showers currently moving onto the Coast and into the
Coast Range. The cold pool aloft associated with this upper-level
trough will act to steepen lapse rates with this trough, which we are
seeing with the convective showers along the Coast.  Do think that
though MUCAPE values are around 200-300 J/kg around Portland and
Astoria northward, without daytime heating it will be hard to
generate anything stronger than moderate showers as the trough axis
swings through. A few showers will linger into Friday morning, but
expect clearing conditions through the afternoon with partly cloudy
skies by Friday evening across most of the area. Shortwave ridging
builds in late Friday into Saturday, flattening out over the weekend
with temperatures gradually getting warmer. Expect morning clouds
along the Coast through the weekend and mostly sunny skies everywhere
else across Southwest Washington and Northwest Oregon.-McCoy

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)...No changes. Previous
discussion follows...Broad upper level ridging will continue to bring
warm and dry conditions to the forecast area through late next week.
This will bring sunny skies to the interior, with temps warming into
the mid 80s by Tuesday. Models continue to show several weak
shortwaves moving across the Pac NW next week. These shortwaves will
help to deepen the marine layer along the coast which, combined with
an onshore flow pattern, should keep temps in the 60s under partly
cloudy skies. All in all, beautiful/seasonal weather is expected next
week. /64
&&

.AVIATION...Conditions have improved to mainly VFR late this
evening as the heavier shower activity during the late afternoon
and early evening has weakened somewhat. However, there will be a
threat for showers overnight and through much of Fri. The fcst
models indicate that MVFR cigs may redevelop overnight, roughly
between 09Z and 12Z as a trough of low pres rotates onshore.
Conditions should return to predominantly VFR again by late
morning Fri and continue through the rest of the day. Shower
threat to end from south to north later in the day

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions should persist through the
rest of the evening. Showers likely to increase again overnight,
with MVFR conditions expected to develop between 09Z and 12Z.
Conditions should become VFR again by around 18Z. Shower threat
will end by late afternoon or early evening. Pyle

&&

.MARINE...A weak trough of low pres will move through the waters
overnight into early Fri. Think that winds will generally remain
below 20 kt, but there is a chance for isolated gusts 20 to 25 kt
over the far northern portions of PZZ250 and PZZ270. A ridge of
high pres pushes in later Fri. Combined with a trough of low pres
building north along the coast during the weekend expect
increasing north winds by late Sat, with gusts likely to reach
small craft criteria. The north winds are expected to continue
into early next week. With the increase in north winds, steep seas
are likely to develop as a result of the wind waves and fresh
swell. Wave heights however are expected to remain under 10 ft.
Pyle

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 240328
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
828 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...Satellite continues to show upper level low pressure system
off the coast.  Showers along the higher terrains will be possible
tonight.  Winds will be breezy and mainly westerly as the low moves
inland overnight.  These winds will persist through the the day and
into the evening on Friday.  There is the possibility of some mid
level forcing and instability overnight that could result in a
shower or even thunderstorm over the lower elevations of Washington,
but confidence is less than 10 percent and therefore will not be
mentioned in the forecast.  Temperatures tomorrow will be cooler as
the low moves overhead and the coolest air aloft will be in place.
Winds will also keep the air well mixed and limit the heating. Still
highs will be mild and in the 70s for the lower elevations, with 60s
mountains.  Strongest winds expected in the Kittitas Valley, but do
not anticipate and advisories. Patchy blowing dust could be an
issue, but again confidence is to low to mention in the
forecast. Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...An upper level low pressure
system is located off the Washington coast this afternoon. The
cyclonic flow around this low is bringing mostly cloudy skies along
with isolated to scattered showers to parts of the area. Introduced
a slight chance of a thunderstorm early this evening over the east
Slopes of the Washington Cascades and even into the Kittitas
Valley...as this is where the latest SPC meso-analysis shows some
negative LIs and marginal MUCAPE, near 500 J/Kg. Expect this trend to
continue through tonight as the upper low slides across the
Washington Columbia Basin. A vorticity maxima associated with a
shortwave will move through the CWA after midnight tonight...which
should act to further increase shower coverage...especially over the
Blue Mountains. The upper low then quickly swings east of the CWA
Friday morning but a relatively moist NW flow will keep some showers
and even a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast through
the afternoon hours...especially over the Northeast Mountains.
Temperatures will remain cool and below seasonal averages for Friday
afternoon, with highs in the mid 60s to mid-70s in the
valleys/basins and only 50s to lower 60s mountains. This is about 10
degrees below average for this time of year. The other story for
Friday will be the winds. Conditions will likely start off breezy
during the morning and continue right into the afternoon. In the
Columbia Gorge...North-Central Oregon...The Columbia Basin and the
Blue Mountain Foothills expect westerly winds between 15 and 25 MPH
with gusts up to 30-35 MPH through much of the day. The Kittitas
Valley will also be windy with northwest winds 20-30 MPH and gusts
40-45 MPH expected...held off on an advisory for now as winds speeds
are expected to be marginal and confidence in long lived advisory
winds was not quite high enough...will however need to continue to
monitor this potential. Partly cloudy skies Friday evening turn
mostly clear overnight with winds subsiding. A ridge of high
pressure builds over the entire region for the weekend with mostly
clear skies and warming temperatures. By Sunday high temperatures
will reach the mid 80s to lower 90s in the valleys/basins with 70s
to lower 80s mountains. 77

LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday. Above normal temperatures
and generally dry conditions can be expected as a ridge of high
pressure builds over the area.  On Monday, a weak trough of low
pressure will be trying to move into the Pacific Northwest. It
appears that some moisture and instability will be available along
the east slopes of the Washington Cascades and have introduced a
slight chance of thunderstorms for Monday afternoon and evening.
Starting Monday, temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal
with the lower elevations seeing highs in the 90s and then climbing
to mid and upper 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. The mountain areas
will be in the 80s.  93

AVIATION...00Z TAFS. VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours.  A low pressure system will continue to move onshore
through the period with generally mid and high clouds over the
region.  A few showers are possible region wide tonight with a
slight chance thunderstorms over the Wallowa County. West to
southwest winds have increased to 15 to 20 kts at most sites  The
wind will decrease slightly overnight but become northwest
and increase again on Friday. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  71  49  81 /  20  20  10   0
ALW  56  72  55  82 /  20  30  10   0
PSC  56  76  52  85 /  10  20  10   0
YKM  50  75  47  84 /  20  10  10   0
HRI  55  74  51  85 /  10  10  10   0
ELN  50  68  50  81 /  20  20  10   0
RDM  41  69  37  81 /  20  10   0   0
LGD  50  65  44  77 /  40  40  10   0
GCD  48  67  43  80 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  54  71  53  86 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

89/93/93




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240321 CCA
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Medford OR
821 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...A mostly dry cold front has moved through the
forecast area today and current temperatures are 5-10 degrees
cooler than yesterday at this time. Gusty winds have accompanied
the front with west to northwest wind gusts about 20-25 mph across
most of the forecast area this afternoon. The precipitation that
has been observed has occurred mostly in the Coast Range, with the
big winner being Charlotte Ridge in northern Coos County,
measuring 0.41 inches in the past 24 hours. Most other locations
that received rainfall measured less than a tenth of an inch. A
few showers will continue through early Friday morning before
most of the rain ends.

The upper trough axis will swing through Friday morning and the
below normal temperatures will stick around for another day...with
afternoon high temperatures expected to be 5-10 degrees below
normal. A drier air mass is moving in, so no precipitation is
expected, and there will be plenty of sunshine.

Please see the previous discussion below for details on a warming
trend starting on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 24/00Z TAF cycle...IFR cigs have been in and
out on the coast, and confidence is low on whether ceilings will
lower near sunset or continue in the MVFR/VFR range. Current
forecast calls for them to lower to IFR but will be examining this
for next set of TAFs. Cigs are expected to lower in the Umpqua
Basin tonight to MVFR, with partial mountain obscuration.
Elsewhere, VFR cigs will continue for the next 24 hours. Gusty
northwest to west winds this evening will decrease overnight.
Sven/SK

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Thu 23 June 2016...Light to moderate
northwest winds are being observed behind the cold front. Seas
will remain relatively low tonight. A thermal trough will
redevelop Friday into the weekend...bringing a return of strong
north winds and choppy seas with gales possible south of Cape
Blanco -Sven/SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 241 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...No significant changes were made to the forecast
this afternoon. The wind shift line associated with the cold front
has moved to the east side and is likely across Modoc and eastern
Lake counties right now. As expected, gusty winds have developed
ahead of and in the wake of the front, but it is producing little
more than clouds for most of our area. Webcams at the coast show
some low clouds, fog, and drizzle or light rain right at the
coastline, but little else. As the upper trough moves over
tonight, the likelihood for showers will increase a bit further
inland.

The upper trough axis moves east of us tomorrow morning, but
onshore flow will keep some clouds in the area and result in one
more relatively cool day. On Saturday, a flat upper ridge begins
to build over the PacNW and remains in place pretty much through
the remainder of the forecast period. There may be weak
disturbances in the southwest flow aloft, but they won`t amount to
anything other than high cloud at times. As a thermal trough
develops along the coast Saturday, temperatures will rise quickly
with highs around 90 in Medford then possibly into the mid 90s by
Sunday. -Wright

LONG TERM...June 27th (Monday)- July 1st (Friday.) The models
remain in pretty good agreement in the extended with a few minor
differences in details. The mean ridge is expected to be positioned
southeast of the forecast area, so were not expecting any major heat
wave. Max temperatures will heat up, but were not expecting anything
of significance with readings averaging 10-15 degrees above normal.
Odds are we`ll remain dry through the extended period. The one fly
in the ointment could be Monday afternoon. The GFS and EC show a
weak upper trough approaching southwest Oregon late Monday morning,
then moving inland in the afternoon. The GFS shows marginal
instability Monday afternoon in western Siskiyou county and
Cascades, especially from around Crater Lake north. However mid
level moisture is lacking. Both models show some QPF along the
Cascades (the EC shows a greater coverage, but suspect this may be
overdone). For now we`ll keep ghost pops in the forecast, but it`s
something that will need to be watched in the coming days.
-Petrucelli

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Thu 23 June 2016...The main
concern through this evening will be gusty winds east of the
Cascades. The strongest winds will be over the higher terrain east
of the Cascades with frequent 30 to 35 mph gusts...perhaps even up
to 40 mph in the windier spots. The good news is that temperatures
will be cooler and relative humidities higher into this evening.
We`ll continue to headline this in the afternoon fire weather
forecast. So far little or no rain has occured, except for the
northern portions of fire zone 615 and northwest portion of fire
zone 616. Could not rule out a few sprinkles or light showers in
parts of 617 and maybe northern 623 through this evening, but
probably not amounting to much more than a couple hundreths of an
inch. Elsewhere no precipitation is expected.

An upper low will swing north of the area Friday morning, then move
east Friday afternoon. The models show a relatively strong west to
northwest flow at 700 mb for this time of the year as the upper
trough moves through, especially Friday morning. Therefore we expect
winds to be strongest in the morning hours Friday east of the
Cascades and mostly confined to the higher terrain. It will still be
windy in the afternoon, but they will be trending lower.
Temperatures should remain cool and relative humidities higher on
Friday and and it will be dry.

Dry and much warmer weather is on the way starting Saturday and
could last into at least the middle of next week. While we are not
expecting a full blown heat wave, max temperatures are expected to
average 10-15 degrees above normal. A thermal trough will redevelop
over this weekend bringing further drying above the mid slopes along
with mild overnight temperatures.

The only fly in the ointment will be Monday. The GFS hints at
marginal instability along the Cascades, particularly from around
Crater Lake north, but the mid level moisture is lacking.
Interesting the EC and GFS show some qpf, but suspect this may be
overdone. Bottom line is that we`ll have to keep a close eye on
this and see how the models trend in the coming days. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 5 PM Friday to 11
     PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday
     for PZZ376.

$$

NSK/TRW/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240311
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
811 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...A mostly dry cold front has moved through the
forecast area today and current temperatures are 5-10 degrees
cooler than yesterday at this time. Gusty winds have accompanied
the front with west to northwest wind gusts about 20-25 mph across
most of the forecast area this afternoon.

The upper trough axis will swing through Friday morning and the
below normal temperatures will stick around for another day...with
afternoon high temperatures expected to be 5-10 degrees below
normal. A drier air mass is moving in, so no precipitation is
expected, and there will be plenty of sunshine.

Please see the previous discussion below for details on a warming
trend starting on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 24/00Z TAF cycle...IFR cigs have been in and
out on the coast, and confidence is low on whether ceilings will
lower near sunset or continue in the MVFR/VFR range. Current
forecast calls for them to lower to IFR but will be examining this
for next set of TAFs. Cigs are expected to lower in the Umpqua
Basin tonight to MVFR, with partial mountain obscuration.
Elsewhere, VFR cigs will continue for the next 24 hours. Gusty
northwest to west winds this evening will decrease overnight.
Sven/SK

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Thu 23 June 2016...Light to moderate
northwest winds are being observed behind the cold front. Seas
will remain relatively low tonight. A thermal trough will
redevelop Friday into the weekend...bringing a return of strong
north winds and choppy seas with gales possible south of Cape
Blanco -Sven/SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 241 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...No significant changes were made to the forecast
this afternoon. The wind shift line associated with the cold front
has moved to the east side and is likely across Modoc and eastern
Lake counties right now. As expected, gusty winds have developed
ahead of and in the wake of the front, but it is producing little
more than clouds for most of our area. Webcams at the coast show
some low clouds, fog, and drizzle or light rain right at the
coastline, but little else. As the upper trough moves over
tonight, the likelihood for showers will increase a bit further
inland.

The upper trough axis moves east of us tomorrow morning, but
onshore flow will keep some clouds in the area and result in one
more relatively cool day. On Saturday, a flat upper ridge begins
to build over the PacNW and remains in place pretty much through
the remainder of the forecast period. There may be weak
disturbances in the southwest flow aloft, but they won`t amount to
anything other than high cloud at times. As a thermal trough
develops along the coast Saturday, temperatures will rise quickly
with highs around 90 in Medford then possibly into the mid 90s by
Sunday. -Wright

LONG TERM...June 27th (Monday)- July 1st (Friday.) The models
remain in pretty good agreement in the extended with a few minor
differences in details. The mean ridge is expected to be positioned
southeast of the forecast area, so were not expecting any major heat
wave. Max temperatures will heat up, but were not expecting anything
of significance with readings averaging 10-15 degrees above normal.
Odds are we`ll remain dry through the extended period. The one fly
in the ointment could be Monday afternoon. The GFS and EC show a
weak upper trough approaching southwest Oregon late Monday morning,
then moving inland in the afternoon. The GFS shows marginal
instability Monday afternoon in western Siskiyou county and
Cascades, especially from around Crater Lake north. However mid
level moisture is lacking. Both models show some QPF along the
Cascades (the EC shows a greater coverage, but suspect this may be
overdone). For now we`ll keep ghost pops in the forecast, but it`s
something that will need to be watched in the coming days.
-Petrucelli

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Thu 23 June 2016...The main
concern through this evening will be gusty winds east of the
Cascades. The strongest winds will be over the higher terrain east
of the Cascades with frequent 30 to 35 mph gusts...perhaps even up
to 40 mph in the windier spots. The good news is that temperatures
will be cooler and relative humidities higher into this evening.
We`ll continue to headline this in the afternoon fire weather
forecast. So far little or no rain has occured, except for the
northern portions of fire zone 615 and northwest portion of fire
zone 616. Could not rule out a few sprinkles or light showers in
parts of 617 and maybe northern 623 through this evening, but
probably not amounting to much more than a couple hundreths of an
inch. Elsewhere no precipitation is expected.

An upper low will swing north of the area Friday morning, then move
east Friday afternoon. The models show a relatively strong west to
northwest flow at 700 mb for this time of the year as the upper
trough moves through, especially Friday morning. Therefore we expect
winds to be strongest in the morning hours Friday east of the
Cascades and mostly confined to the higher terrain. It will still be
windy in the afternoon, but they will be trending lower.
Temperatures should remain cool and relative humidities higher on
Friday and and it will be dry.

Dry and much warmer weather is on the way starting Saturday and
could last into at least the middle of next week. While we are not
expecting a full blown heat wave, max temperatures are expected to
average 10-15 degrees above normal. A thermal trough will redevelop
over this weekend bringing further drying above the mid slopes along
with mild overnight temperatures.

The only fly in the ointment will be Monday. The GFS hints at
marginal instability along the Cascades, particularly from around
Crater Lake north, but the mid level moisture is lacking.
Interesting the EC and GFS show some qpf, but suspect this may be
overdone. Bottom line is that we`ll have to keep a close eye on
this and see how the models trend in the coming days. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 5 PM Friday to 11
     PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday
     for PZZ376.

$$

NSK/TRW/SBN




000
FXUS65 KBOI 240303
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
903 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...An upper level low currently located off of the
coast of Washington is still expected to move almost due east
over northern Idaho overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning.
However, an associated cold front has moved through the area and
high temperatures tomorrow are expected to be around 15 degrees
cooler than today. Gusty northwest winds are also still likely
tomorrow and the wind advisory in effect still looks appropriate.
The rest of the forecast, including a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the northernmost portion of the CWA look on
track and no updates will be needed this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Gusty winds and isolated showers expected with
a cold frontal passage early Friday. Best chance for showers will be
KBKE and KMYL. Surface winds southwest to northwest 10-15kts with
gusts up to 25 kts this evening. Winds will increase with frontal
passage Friday morning in the valley...mainly east of KMUO with
sustained winds 25-30 kts and gusts 35-40 kts from the west-
northwest. Winds aloft to 10k feet MSL southwesterly 30-40kts.

Weekend outlook...VFR. Mostly clear skies with light winds expected.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...Closed low off the
Pacific Northwest coast pushes inland tonight bringing a cold
front through the region. Moisture is very limited with the front
and measurable precipitation will be confined to the terrain north
of a Burns, OR to Stanley, ID line. Brief sprinkles are possible
elsewhere along the front Friday morning. Instability for
thunderstorms will be confined north and east of McCall on Friday
afternoon. Surface winds increase behind the front on Friday with
breezy west to northwest winds. Upper level dynamics favor advisory
level winds in the Magic Valley, Camas Prairie and Southern Twin
Falls County, thus have issued a Wind Advisory from 9am MDT to
6pm MDT Friday with sustained winds 25-35mph with gusts to 45mph
for these areas. Temperatures on Friday expected to be around 15
degrees cooler than today, or around 10 degrees below normal.
Saturday morning will be quite cool with temperatures in the 20s
and 30s in the mountains and mid 40s in the Snake Plain. Expect
dry conditions, light winds, and a slight warming trend on
Saturday.

LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday...Dry and warm
conditions persist through the long term period with a building
ridge. Temperatures start off Sunday 5-10 degrees above normal and
continue to rise. By Thursday temperatures rise to 10-15 degrees
above normal. Models hint at a couple short waves passing through
the region Tuesday through Thursday, but the majority of the
moisture stays out of our area.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM MDT Friday IDZ016-028-030.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....JC/WH




000
FXUS66 KPQR 232141
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
239 PM PDT Thu Jun 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure system will move overhead
tonight. This weather system will bring keep rain showers and cooler
temperatures in the region through mid day Friday before conditions
start to dry out and warm up for the weekend. High pressure will
build into the area Friday night and Saturday,bringing a period of
dry weather and seasonal temperatures that should extend into the
middle of next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday Night through Sunday)...Weak cold front has
struggled to make it over the coast range so far this morning. Ahead
of this front, persistent southwesterly flow has kept the showers
quite numerous across the forecast area today. Expect the front to
begin it`s eastward trek later this afternoon as the upper low
arrives. Showers will become less numerous post frontal with even a
few breaks in the clouds possible. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen
this evening as the upper low moves directly overhead. This is the
only favorable variable for thunder this evening as thick cloud cover
has kept instability weak and equilibrium levels low (< 15kft). Will
keep inherited slight chance thunder mention after 00Z for the north
given the upper low track, but would not be surprised if no thunder
materializes. Otherwise, improving conditions through the day Friday
as ridging builds into the region for the weekend. /Bentley

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)...Broad upper level
ridging will continue to bring warm and dry conditions to the
forecast area through late next week. This will bring sunny skies to
the interior, with temps warming into the mid 80s by Tuesday. Models
continue to show several weak shortwaves moving across the Pac NW
next week. These shortwaves will help to deepen the marine layer
along the coast which, combined with an onshore flow pattern, should
keep temps in the 60s under partly cloudy skies. All in all,
beautiful/seasonal weather is expected next week. /64
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR conditions are decreasing across the area as
mixing increases this afternoon. Conditions will continue to
improve through this evening with more VFR conditions expected.
However MVFR will likely refill late this evening and overnight.
There is a threat of thunderstorms between 22Z Thu and 03Z Fri north
of a KPDX-KTMK line.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with occasional MVFR expected at KPDX
and approaches this afternoon and evening. Should then a return to
MVFR with cigs in the 1500-2500 ft range after 08Z Fri.

&&

.MARINE...A weak trough persists just along the coastline early
this afternoon but should be shifting ashore soon. Further
offshore high pres will keep winds west to northwest into the
evening. A weak trough moves through the waters overnight and Fri.
A ridge of high pres pushes in later Fri. Combined with a trough
of low pres building north along the coast during the weekend
expect increasing north winds by late Sat, with gusts likely to
reach small craft criteria. The north winds are expected to
continue into early next week. With the increase in north winds,
steep seas are likely to develop as a result of the wind waves and
fresh swell. Wave heights however are expected to remain under 10
ft.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&


&&

$$

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 232141
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
241 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...No significant changes were made to the forecast
this afternoon. The wind shift line associated with the cold front
has moved to the east side and is likely across Modoc and eastern
Lake counties right now. As expected, gusty winds have developed
ahead of and in the wake of the front, but it is producing little
more than clouds for most of our area. Webcams at the coast show
some low clouds, fog, and drizzle or light rain right at the
coastline, but little else. As the upper trough moves over
tonight, the likelihood for showers will increase a bit further
inland.

The upper trough axis moves east of us tomorrow morning, but
onshore flow will keep some clouds in the area and result in one
more relatively cool day. On Saturday, a flat upper ridge begins
to build over the PacNW and remains in place pretty much through
the remainder of the forecast period. There may be weak
disturbances in the southwest flow aloft, but they won`t amount to
anything other than high cloud at times. As a thermal trough
develops along the coast Saturday, temperatures will rise quickly
with highs around 90 in Medford then possibly into the mid 90s by
Sunday. -Wright

.LONG TERM...June 27th (Monday)- July 1st (Friday.) The models
remain in pretty good agreement in the extended with a few minor
differences in details. The mean ridge is expected to be positioned
southeast of the forecast area, so were not expecting any major heat
wave. Max temperatures will heat up, but were not expecting anything
of significance with readings averaging 10-15 degrees above normal.
Odds are we`ll remain dry through the extended period. The one fly
in the ointment could be Monday afternoon. The GFS and EC show a
weak upper trough approaching southwest Oregon late Monday morning,
then moving inland in the afternoon. The GFS shows marginal
instability Monday afternoon in western Siskiyou county and
Cascades, especially from around Crater Lake north. However mid
level moisture is lacking. Both models show some QPF along the
Cascades (the EC shows a greater coverage, but suspect this may be
overdone). For now we`ll keep ghost pops in the forecast, but it`s
something that will need to be watched in the coming days.
-Petrucelli

&&

.AVIATION...For the 23/18Z TAF cycle...Expect MVFR cigs to persist
at the coast the rest of the afternoon. There`s a chance CIGS could
get close to IFR early this afternoon at North Bend, but confidence
is low on this. For now we`ll keep MVFR conditions, but this will
need to be monitored closely. Cigs are expected to lower in the
Umpqua Basin into this evening with partial mountain obscuration,
but expect VFR to be the predominate condition. Cigs are expected to
lower to MVFR at Roseburg tonight. Elsewhere, VFR cigs will continue
for the next 24 hours. Gusty northwest to west winds will develop
this afternoon and evening, especially over the East Side.
-Petrucelli

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Thu 23 June 2016...A weak cold
front will move onshore today. Light to moderate southwest winds
this morning will shift to the northwest this afternoon and evening.
Seas will remain relatively low. A thermal trough will redevelop
Friday into the weekend...bringing a return of strong north winds
and choppy seas. -Spilde

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Thu 23 June 2016...The main
concern through this evening will be gusty winds east of the
Cascades. The strongest winds will be over the higher terrain east
of the Cascades with frequent 30 to 35 mph gusts...perhaps even up
to 40 mph in the windier spots. The good news is that temperatures
will be cooler and relative humidities higher into this evening.
We`ll continue to headline this in the afternoon fire weather
forecast. So far little or no rain has occured, except for the
northern portions of fire zone 615 and northwest portion of fire
zone 616. Could not rule out a few sprinkles or light showers in
parts of 617 and maybe northern 623 through this evening, but
probably not amounting to much more than a couple hundreths of an
inch. Elsewhere no precipitation is expected.

An upper low will swing north of the area Friday morning, then move
east Friday afternoon. The models show a relatively strong west to
northwest flow at 700 mb for this time of the year as the upper
trough moves through, especially Friday morning. Therefore we expect
winds to be strongest in the morning hours Friday east of the
Cascades and mostly confined to the higher terrain. It will still be
windy in the afternoon, but they will be trending lower.
Temperatures should remain cool and relative humidities higher on
Friday and and it will be dry.

Dry and much warmer weather is on the way starting Saturday and
could last into at least the middle of next week. While we are not
expecting a full blown heat wave, max temperatures are expected to
average 10-15 degrees above normal. A thermal trough will redevelop
over this weekend bringing further drying above the mid slopes along
with mild overnight temperatures.

The only fly in the ointment will be Monday. The GFS hints at
marginal instability along the Cascades, particularly from around
Crater Lake north, but the mid level moisture is lacking.
Interesting the EC and GFS show some qpf, but suspect this may be
overdone. Bottom line is that we`ll have to keep a close eye on
this and see how the models trend in the coming days. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to
     11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 5 PM Friday to 11
     PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday
     for PZZ376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KPDT 232135
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
235 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...An upper level low pressure
system is located off the Washington coast this afternoon. The
cyclonic flow around this low is bringing mostly cloudy skies along
with isolated to scattered showers to parts of the area. Introduced
a slight chance of a thunderstorm early this evening over the east
Slopes of the Washington Cascades and even into the Kittitas
Valley...as this is where the latest SPC meso-analysis shows some
negative LIs and marginal MUCAPE, near 500 J/Kg. Expect this trend to
continue through tonight as the upper low slides across the
Washington Columbia Basin. A vorticity maxima associated with a
shortwave will move through the CWA after midnight tonight...which
should act to further increase shower coverage...especially over the
Blue Mountains. The upper low then quickly swings east of the CWA
Friday morning but a relatively moist NW flow will keep some showers
and even a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast through
the afternoon hours...especially over the Northeast Mountains.
Temperatures will remain cool and below seasonal averages for Friday
afternoon, with highs in the mid 60s to mid-70s in the
valleys/basins and only 50s to lower 60s mountains. This is about 10
degrees below average for this time of year. The other story for
Friday will be the winds. Conditions will likely start off breezy
during the morning and continue right into the afternoon. In the
Columbia Gorge...North-Central Oregon...The Columbia Basin and the
Blue Mountain Foothills expect westerly winds between 15 and 25 MPH
with gusts up to 30-35 MPH through much of the day. The Kittitas
Valley will also be windy with northwest winds 20-30 MPH and gusts
40-45 MPH expected...held off on an advisory for now as winds speeds
are expected to be marginal and confidence in long lived advisory
winds was not quite high enough...will however need to continue to
monitor this potential. Partly cloudy skies Friday evening turn
mostly clear overnight with winds subsiding. A ridge of high
pressure builds over the entire region for the weekend with mostly
clear skies and warming temperatures. By Sunday high temperatures
will reach the mid 80s to lower 90s in the valleys/basins with 70s
to lower 80s mountains. 77

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday. Above normal temperatures
and generally dry conditions can be expected as a ridge of high
pressure builds over the area.  On Monday, a weak trough of low
pressure will be trying to move into the Pacific Northwest. It
appears that some moisture and instability will be available along
the east slopes of the Washington Cascades and have introduced a
slight chance of thunderstorms for Monday afternoon and evening.
Starting Monday, temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal
with the lower elevations seeing highs in the 90s and then climbing
to mid and upper 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. The mountain areas
will be in the 80s.  93

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours.  A low pressure system will continue to move onshore
through the period with generally mid and high clouds over the
region.  A few showers are possible region wide tonight with a
slight chance thunderstorms over the Wallowa County. West to
southwest winds have increased to 15 to 20 kts at most sites  The
wind will decrease slightly overnight but become northwest
and increase again on Friday. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  71  49  81 /  20  20  10   0
ALW  58  72  55  82 /  20  30  10   0
PSC  57  76  52  85 /  10  20  10   0
YKM  51  75  47  84 /  20  10  10   0
HRI  57  74  51  85 /  10  10  10   0
ELN  52  68  50  81 /  20  20  10   0
RDM  43  69  37  81 /  20  10   0   0
LGD  50  65  44  77 /  40  40  10   0
GCD  46  67  43  80 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  56  71  53  86 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

77/93/93




000
FXUS65 KBOI 232052
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
252 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...Closed low off the
Pacific Northwest coast pushes inland tonight bringing a cold
front through the region. Moisture is very limited with the front
and measurable precipitation will be confined to the terrain north
of a Burns, OR to Stanley, ID line. Brief sprinkles are possible
elsewhere along the front Friday morning. Instability for
thunderstorms will be confined north and east of McCall on Friday
afternoon. Surface winds increase behind the front on Friday with
breezy west to northwest winds. Upper level dynamics favor advisory
level winds in the Magic Valley, Camas Prairie and Southern Twin
Falls County, thus have issued a Wind Advisory from 9am MDT to
6pm MDT Friday with sustained winds 25-35mph with gusts to 45mph
for these areas. Temperatures on Friday expected to be around 15
degrees cooler than today, or around 10 degrees below normal.
Saturday morning will be quite cool with temperatures in the 20s
and 30s in the mountains and mid 40s in the Snake Plain. Expect
dry conditions, light winds, and a slight warming trend on
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday...Dry and warm
conditions persist through the long term period with a building
ridge. Temperatures start off Sunday 5-10 degrees above normal and
continue to rise. By Thursday temperatures rise to 10-15 degrees
above normal. Models hint at a couple short waves passing through
the region Tuesday through Thursday, but the majority of the
moisture stays out of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Mid to upper level clouds pushing in from the west
ahead of the next boundary. Isolated showers early morning mostly
north of a KBKE-KMYL line. Ceilings in and around showers could
lower to MVFR. Surface winds southwest to northwest 10-15kts with
gusts 20-30kts. Increasing winds Friday AM east of KMUO and south of
Prairie with sustained winds westerly 25-32kts and gusts 35-40kts.
Winds aloft to 10k feet MSL southwesterly 25-40kts.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM MDT Friday IDZ016-028-030.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....JC/WH
AVIATION.....JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 232052
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
252 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...Closed low off the
Pacific Northwest coast pushes inland tonight bringing a cold
front through the region. Moisture is very limited with the front
and measurable precipitation will be confined to the terrain north
of a Burns, OR to Stanley, ID line. Brief sprinkles are possible
elsewhere along the front Friday morning. Instability for
thunderstorms will be confined north and east of McCall on Friday
afternoon. Surface winds increase behind the front on Friday with
breezy west to northwest winds. Upper level dynamics favor advisory
level winds in the Magic Valley, Camas Prairie and Southern Twin
Falls County, thus have issued a Wind Advisory from 9am MDT to
6pm MDT Friday with sustained winds 25-35mph with gusts to 45mph
for these areas. Temperatures on Friday expected to be around 15
degrees cooler than today, or around 10 degrees below normal.
Saturday morning will be quite cool with temperatures in the 20s
and 30s in the mountains and mid 40s in the Snake Plain. Expect
dry conditions, light winds, and a slight warming trend on
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday...Dry and warm
conditions persist through the long term period with a building
ridge. Temperatures start off Sunday 5-10 degrees above normal and
continue to rise. By Thursday temperatures rise to 10-15 degrees
above normal. Models hint at a couple short waves passing through
the region Tuesday through Thursday, but the majority of the
moisture stays out of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Mid to upper level clouds pushing in from the west
ahead of the next boundary. Isolated showers early morning mostly
north of a KBKE-KMYL line. Ceilings in and around showers could
lower to MVFR. Surface winds southwest to northwest 10-15kts with
gusts 20-30kts. Increasing winds Friday AM east of KMUO and south of
Prairie with sustained winds westerly 25-32kts and gusts 35-40kts.
Winds aloft to 10k feet MSL southwesterly 25-40kts.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM MDT Friday IDZ016-028-030.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....JC/WH
AVIATION.....JC




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231602
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR 207
900 AM PDT Thu Jun 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure system and associated front
will move across the region today. This weather system will bring
some light rain showers to the region and some cooler temperatures.
High pressure will build into the area Friday night and Saturday,
bringing a period of dry weather and seasonal temperatures that
should extend into the middle of next week.
&&

.UPDATE...Increased pops this morning and afternoon based on current
radar trends. Not too excited about thunder chances this evening, but
cannot rule out the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm as the
upper low approaches, so will leave inherited thunder mention from
Astoria to Portland to Mount Hood and north. Otherwise, ongoing
forecast appears on track. /Bentley

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)...No changes. Previous
discussion follows. Satellite imagery this morning shows a compact
low pressure system off the WA coast with an attendant cold front
moving into northwest Oregon.  The front will continue to move
across the interior this morning bringing some light rain to the
region.  Should see a little uptick in shower activity this
afternoon as the upper level low approaches and colder air aloft
begins to move into the area.  Maintained the slight chance of
thunderstorms in forecast for this evening as model soundings show
some moderate instability with steep low level lapse rates and some
speed shear.  Models in good consensus moving the upper level trough
into the Northern Rockies by Friday afternoon and a shortwave ridge
of high pressure moving into the region late Friday and Saturday. tw

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) No changes. Previous
discussion follows...West/southwest flow aloft sets up for the
extended period, with a very weak/dry shortwave passage on Sunday.
This could deepen the marine layer along the central and north coast,
and push a few more morning clouds inland, but will otherwise have a
negligible effect on sensible weather. Appears the very seasonal
weather pattern developing this weekend will persist well into next
week, with low amplitude ridging aloft, light onshore flow at the
surface, patchy morning clouds but otherwise mostly clear/sunny
inland, and typical late June temperatures. Bright

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR prevailing across the area with CIGS ranging from
1500 to 2500 feet. There is local IFR CIGS primarily at the coast
but coastal mountains and Cascades are expected to remain obscured
through this evening. Should see gradual improvement this
afternoon to low VFR primarily at inland TAF sites. MVFR will
likely refill late this evening.  Showers continue today then
decrease tonight. There is a threat of thunderstorms between 22Z
Thu and 03Z north of KPDX-KTTD line.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR prevailing through about 21Z then
should see improving conditions with occasional MVFR through 08Z.
MVFR conditions are likely overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Front moved ashore earlier this morning. Winds will veer
to the nw, with peak gusts dropping below 20 kt. Late tonight
and Fri lighter winds expected as a ridge of high pres pushes in.
A trough of low pres building up the coast out of the south during
the weekend will bring increasing north winds by late Sat, with
gusts likely to reach small craft criteria. The north winds are
expected to continue into early next week. With the increase in
north winds, steep seas are likely to develop as a result of the
wind waves and fresh swell. Wave heights however are expected to
remain under 10 ft.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&


&&

$$

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 231553 CCA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
852 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...Short term forecast remains on track as a large upper
level low continues to slowly moved toward the area. PoPs and
weather were adjusted only very slightly for today...however PoPs
were raised tonight over the Blue and Wallowa Mountains to indicate
high chance to low end likely chances for showers as the forcing
increases and the upper low moves into our area. Sky cover was
adjusted down this morning over the eastern third of the CWA as the
latest visible satellite indicated mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies here. Clouds are expected to fill in over the entire CWA by
this afternoon and through tonight...therefore left the forecast
mostly cloudy for most locations during this time. Overall
precipitation amounts will remain on the light side from this
system...with anywhere from a trace to a tenth of an inch across
most of the forecast area...however up to a third of an inch could
fall along the immediate East Slopes of the Cascades in the next 24
hours. It will be breezy through the day today and especially this
afternoon with westerly winds between 15 to 25 MPH and gusts around
30 MPH. However tomorrow looks like the windier day...especially
across the Columbia Basin...Columbia Gorge and Blue Mountain
Foothills where westerly winds will increase to 20-30 MPH with
higher gusts...The Kittitas Valley can expect winds of 25-35 MPH
with higher gusts possible especially in the afternoon. Will need to
consider a possible wind advisory here with the afternoon package. 77

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours.  A low pressure system will continue to move onshore
through the period with generally mid and high clouds over the
region.  A few showers are possible along and just east of the
Cascades through the day and then spread over the Blue Mountains
this evening with a slight chance thunderstorms over the Wallowa
Mountains. West to southwest winds will increase through the day
with 15 to 20 kts at most sites by mid to late afternoon.  The wind
will decrease slightly overnight but increase again on Friday. 93

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...An upper low is located off
of Northern Vancouver Island this morning and will sink south to the
Washington coast today. Clouds and isolated showers are circulating
around the low and into the area. The showers are limited to the
Washington Cascades thus far with trace amounts at Ellensburg and
near Yakima. Expect that as the low approaches there will be
isolated showers expanding into the Oregon Cascades, North Central
Oregon and the Columbia Gorge, but the rest of the area should be
dry. Late in the afternoon and this evening, the low will move
ashore and this will expand showers into the Eastern Oregon
mountains through the night with a slight chance of a thunderstorm
or two in Wallowa County through early evening. The low will also be
tightening up pressure gradients and the Columbia Basin should have
westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph this afternoon and continuing through
the night. By Friday morning, the low will be centered over the
Columbia Basin but will be moving quickly to the east, reaching the
Idaho panhandle by mid day and then into Montana by the evening.
This will give the lower elevations a chance of showers and the
mountains a chance of showers in the morning although north of the
Tri-Cities and Central Oregon should remain dry. Showers will taper
off rapidly in the afternoon with just the Cascades and eastern
mountains having a chance of showers by mid afternoon. There will
also be a slight chance of thunderstorms in the Northern Blue
Mountains and Wallowa County. The bigger story will be winds on
Friday as the Columbia Basin will be reaching 15 to 30 mph in the
afternoon. The Kittitas Valley may reach 25 to 35 mph and a wind
advisory may be needed there. A ridge will build over the area
Friday night and Saturday and fair and dry weather with light winds
are expected. Temperatures today will be 7-10 degrees cooler than
yesterday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s with mid 60s to mid
70s in the mountains. Friday with the low overhead will see
temperatures in the lower to mid 70s with 60s in the mountains. On
saturday temperatures will rebound to the upper 70s to mid 80s with
70s in the mountains. Perry

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...A ridge of high pressure is
expected to build across the two state area this weekend. This dry
weather pattern should persist into next week with a warming trend
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  54  70  49 /  10  20  20  10
ALW  78  56  72  55 /  10  20  30  10
PSC  83  56  76  52 /  10  10  20  10
YKM  79  50  74  47 /  20  10  10  10
HRI  80  55  73  51 /  10  10  20  10
ELN  73  52  68  50 /  30  20  20  10
RDM  72  41  68  36 /  10  20  10   0
LGD  76  49  64  44 /  10  40  30  10
GCD  77  48  67  43 /  10  30  30   0
DLS  73  54  71  53 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

77/93/93




000
FXUS66 KPDT 231553 CCA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
852 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...Short term forecast remains on track as a large upper
level low continues to slowly moved toward the area. PoPs and
weather were adjusted only very slightly for today...however PoPs
were raised tonight over the Blue and Wallowa Mountains to indicate
high chance to low end likely chances for showers as the forcing
increases and the upper low moves into our area. Sky cover was
adjusted down this morning over the eastern third of the CWA as the
latest visible satellite indicated mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies here. Clouds are expected to fill in over the entire CWA by
this afternoon and through tonight...therefore left the forecast
mostly cloudy for most locations during this time. Overall
precipitation amounts will remain on the light side from this
system...with anywhere from a trace to a tenth of an inch across
most of the forecast area...however up to a third of an inch could
fall along the immediate East Slopes of the Cascades in the next 24
hours. It will be breezy through the day today and especially this
afternoon with westerly winds between 15 to 25 MPH and gusts around
30 MPH. However tomorrow looks like the windier day...especially
across the Columbia Basin...Columbia Gorge and Blue Mountain
Foothills where westerly winds will increase to 20-30 MPH with
higher gusts...The Kittitas Valley can expect winds of 25-35 MPH
with higher gusts possible especially in the afternoon. Will need to
consider a possible wind advisory here with the afternoon package. 77

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours.  A low pressure system will continue to move onshore
through the period with generally mid and high clouds over the
region.  A few showers are possible along and just east of the
Cascades through the day and then spread over the Blue Mountains
this evening with a slight chance thunderstorms over the Wallowa
Mountains. West to southwest winds will increase through the day
with 15 to 20 kts at most sites by mid to late afternoon.  The wind
will decrease slightly overnight but increase again on Friday. 93

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...An upper low is located off
of Northern Vancouver Island this morning and will sink south to the
Washington coast today. Clouds and isolated showers are circulating
around the low and into the area. The showers are limited to the
Washington Cascades thus far with trace amounts at Ellensburg and
near Yakima. Expect that as the low approaches there will be
isolated showers expanding into the Oregon Cascades, North Central
Oregon and the Columbia Gorge, but the rest of the area should be
dry. Late in the afternoon and this evening, the low will move
ashore and this will expand showers into the Eastern Oregon
mountains through the night with a slight chance of a thunderstorm
or two in Wallowa County through early evening. The low will also be
tightening up pressure gradients and the Columbia Basin should have
westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph this afternoon and continuing through
the night. By Friday morning, the low will be centered over the
Columbia Basin but will be moving quickly to the east, reaching the
Idaho panhandle by mid day and then into Montana by the evening.
This will give the lower elevations a chance of showers and the
mountains a chance of showers in the morning although north of the
Tri-Cities and Central Oregon should remain dry. Showers will taper
off rapidly in the afternoon with just the Cascades and eastern
mountains having a chance of showers by mid afternoon. There will
also be a slight chance of thunderstorms in the Northern Blue
Mountains and Wallowa County. The bigger story will be winds on
Friday as the Columbia Basin will be reaching 15 to 30 mph in the
afternoon. The Kittitas Valley may reach 25 to 35 mph and a wind
advisory may be needed there. A ridge will build over the area
Friday night and Saturday and fair and dry weather with light winds
are expected. Temperatures today will be 7-10 degrees cooler than
yesterday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s with mid 60s to mid
70s in the mountains. Friday with the low overhead will see
temperatures in the lower to mid 70s with 60s in the mountains. On
saturday temperatures will rebound to the upper 70s to mid 80s with
70s in the mountains. Perry

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...A ridge of high pressure is
expected to build across the two state area this weekend. This dry
weather pattern should persist into next week with a warming trend
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  54  70  49 /  10  20  20  10
ALW  78  56  72  55 /  10  20  30  10
PSC  83  56  76  52 /  10  10  20  10
YKM  79  50  74  47 /  20  10  10  10
HRI  80  55  73  51 /  10  10  20  10
ELN  73  52  68  50 /  30  20  20  10
RDM  72  41  68  36 /  10  20  10   0
LGD  76  49  64  44 /  10  40  30  10
GCD  77  48  67  43 /  10  30  30   0
DLS  73  54  71  53 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

77/93/93




000
FXUS66 KPDT 231553 CCA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
852 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...Short term forecast remains on track as a large upper
level low continues to slowly moved toward the area. PoPs and
weather were adjusted only very slightly for today...however PoPs
were raised tonight over the Blue and Wallowa Mountains to indicate
high chance to low end likely chances for showers as the forcing
increases and the upper low moves into our area. Sky cover was
adjusted down this morning over the eastern third of the CWA as the
latest visible satellite indicated mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies here. Clouds are expected to fill in over the entire CWA by
this afternoon and through tonight...therefore left the forecast
mostly cloudy for most locations during this time. Overall
precipitation amounts will remain on the light side from this
system...with anywhere from a trace to a tenth of an inch across
most of the forecast area...however up to a third of an inch could
fall along the immediate East Slopes of the Cascades in the next 24
hours. It will be breezy through the day today and especially this
afternoon with westerly winds between 15 to 25 MPH and gusts around
30 MPH. However tomorrow looks like the windier day...especially
across the Columbia Basin...Columbia Gorge and Blue Mountain
Foothills where westerly winds will increase to 20-30 MPH with
higher gusts...The Kittitas Valley can expect winds of 25-35 MPH
with higher gusts possible especially in the afternoon. Will need to
consider a possible wind advisory here with the afternoon package. 77

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours.  A low pressure system will continue to move onshore
through the period with generally mid and high clouds over the
region.  A few showers are possible along and just east of the
Cascades through the day and then spread over the Blue Mountains
this evening with a slight chance thunderstorms over the Wallowa
Mountains. West to southwest winds will increase through the day
with 15 to 20 kts at most sites by mid to late afternoon.  The wind
will decrease slightly overnight but increase again on Friday. 93

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...An upper low is located off
of Northern Vancouver Island this morning and will sink south to the
Washington coast today. Clouds and isolated showers are circulating
around the low and into the area. The showers are limited to the
Washington Cascades thus far with trace amounts at Ellensburg and
near Yakima. Expect that as the low approaches there will be
isolated showers expanding into the Oregon Cascades, North Central
Oregon and the Columbia Gorge, but the rest of the area should be
dry. Late in the afternoon and this evening, the low will move
ashore and this will expand showers into the Eastern Oregon
mountains through the night with a slight chance of a thunderstorm
or two in Wallowa County through early evening. The low will also be
tightening up pressure gradients and the Columbia Basin should have
westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph this afternoon and continuing through
the night. By Friday morning, the low will be centered over the
Columbia Basin but will be moving quickly to the east, reaching the
Idaho panhandle by mid day and then into Montana by the evening.
This will give the lower elevations a chance of showers and the
mountains a chance of showers in the morning although north of the
Tri-Cities and Central Oregon should remain dry. Showers will taper
off rapidly in the afternoon with just the Cascades and eastern
mountains having a chance of showers by mid afternoon. There will
also be a slight chance of thunderstorms in the Northern Blue
Mountains and Wallowa County. The bigger story will be winds on
Friday as the Columbia Basin will be reaching 15 to 30 mph in the
afternoon. The Kittitas Valley may reach 25 to 35 mph and a wind
advisory may be needed there. A ridge will build over the area
Friday night and Saturday and fair and dry weather with light winds
are expected. Temperatures today will be 7-10 degrees cooler than
yesterday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s with mid 60s to mid
70s in the mountains. Friday with the low overhead will see
temperatures in the lower to mid 70s with 60s in the mountains. On
saturday temperatures will rebound to the upper 70s to mid 80s with
70s in the mountains. Perry

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...A ridge of high pressure is
expected to build across the two state area this weekend. This dry
weather pattern should persist into next week with a warming trend
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  54  70  49 /  10  20  20  10
ALW  78  56  72  55 /  10  20  30  10
PSC  83  56  76  52 /  10  10  20  10
YKM  79  50  74  47 /  20  10  10  10
HRI  80  55  73  51 /  10  10  20  10
ELN  73  52  68  50 /  30  20  20  10
RDM  72  41  68  36 /  10  20  10   0
LGD  76  49  64  44 /  10  40  30  10
GCD  77  48  67  43 /  10  30  30   0
DLS  73  54  71  53 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

77/93/93




000
FXUS66 KPDT 231553 CCA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
852 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...Short term forecast remains on track as a large upper
level low continues to slowly moved toward the area. PoPs and
weather were adjusted only very slightly for today...however PoPs
were raised tonight over the Blue and Wallowa Mountains to indicate
high chance to low end likely chances for showers as the forcing
increases and the upper low moves into our area. Sky cover was
adjusted down this morning over the eastern third of the CWA as the
latest visible satellite indicated mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies here. Clouds are expected to fill in over the entire CWA by
this afternoon and through tonight...therefore left the forecast
mostly cloudy for most locations during this time. Overall
precipitation amounts will remain on the light side from this
system...with anywhere from a trace to a tenth of an inch across
most of the forecast area...however up to a third of an inch could
fall along the immediate East Slopes of the Cascades in the next 24
hours. It will be breezy through the day today and especially this
afternoon with westerly winds between 15 to 25 MPH and gusts around
30 MPH. However tomorrow looks like the windier day...especially
across the Columbia Basin...Columbia Gorge and Blue Mountain
Foothills where westerly winds will increase to 20-30 MPH with
higher gusts...The Kittitas Valley can expect winds of 25-35 MPH
with higher gusts possible especially in the afternoon. Will need to
consider a possible wind advisory here with the afternoon package. 77

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours.  A low pressure system will continue to move onshore
through the period with generally mid and high clouds over the
region.  A few showers are possible along and just east of the
Cascades through the day and then spread over the Blue Mountains
this evening with a slight chance thunderstorms over the Wallowa
Mountains. West to southwest winds will increase through the day
with 15 to 20 kts at most sites by mid to late afternoon.  The wind
will decrease slightly overnight but increase again on Friday. 93

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...An upper low is located off
of Northern Vancouver Island this morning and will sink south to the
Washington coast today. Clouds and isolated showers are circulating
around the low and into the area. The showers are limited to the
Washington Cascades thus far with trace amounts at Ellensburg and
near Yakima. Expect that as the low approaches there will be
isolated showers expanding into the Oregon Cascades, North Central
Oregon and the Columbia Gorge, but the rest of the area should be
dry. Late in the afternoon and this evening, the low will move
ashore and this will expand showers into the Eastern Oregon
mountains through the night with a slight chance of a thunderstorm
or two in Wallowa County through early evening. The low will also be
tightening up pressure gradients and the Columbia Basin should have
westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph this afternoon and continuing through
the night. By Friday morning, the low will be centered over the
Columbia Basin but will be moving quickly to the east, reaching the
Idaho panhandle by mid day and then into Montana by the evening.
This will give the lower elevations a chance of showers and the
mountains a chance of showers in the morning although north of the
Tri-Cities and Central Oregon should remain dry. Showers will taper
off rapidly in the afternoon with just the Cascades and eastern
mountains having a chance of showers by mid afternoon. There will
also be a slight chance of thunderstorms in the Northern Blue
Mountains and Wallowa County. The bigger story will be winds on
Friday as the Columbia Basin will be reaching 15 to 30 mph in the
afternoon. The Kittitas Valley may reach 25 to 35 mph and a wind
advisory may be needed there. A ridge will build over the area
Friday night and Saturday and fair and dry weather with light winds
are expected. Temperatures today will be 7-10 degrees cooler than
yesterday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s with mid 60s to mid
70s in the mountains. Friday with the low overhead will see
temperatures in the lower to mid 70s with 60s in the mountains. On
saturday temperatures will rebound to the upper 70s to mid 80s with
70s in the mountains. Perry

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...A ridge of high pressure is
expected to build across the two state area this weekend. This dry
weather pattern should persist into next week with a warming trend
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  54  70  49 /  10  20  20  10
ALW  78  56  72  55 /  10  20  30  10
PSC  83  56  76  52 /  10  10  20  10
YKM  79  50  74  47 /  20  10  10  10
HRI  80  55  73  51 /  10  10  20  10
ELN  73  52  68  50 /  30  20  20  10
RDM  72  41  68  36 /  10  20  10   0
LGD  76  49  64  44 /  10  40  30  10
GCD  77  48  67  43 /  10  30  30   0
DLS  73  54  71  53 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

77/93/93




000
FXUS66 KPDT 231547
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
848 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...Short term forecast remains on track as a large upper
level low continues to slowly moved toward the area. PoPs and
weather were adjusted only very slightly for today...however PoPs
were raised tonight over the Blue and Wallowa Mountains to indicate
high chance to low end likely chances for showers as the forcing
increases and the upper low moves into our area. Sky cover was
adjusted down this morning over the eastern third of the CWA as the
latest visible satellite indicated mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies here. Clouds are expected to fill in over the entire CWA by
this afternoon and through tonight...therefore left the forecast
mostly cloudy for most locations during this time. Overall
precipitation amounts will remain on the light side from this
system...with anywhere from a trace to a tenth of an inch across
most of the forecast area...however up to a third of an inch could
fall along the immediate East Slopes of the Cascades in the next 24
hours. It will be breezy through the day today and especially this
afternoon with westerly winds between 15 to 25 MPH and gusts around
30 MPH. However tomorrow looks like the windier day...especially
across the Columbia Basin...Columbia Gorge and Blue Mountain
Foothills where westerly winds will increase to 20-30 MPH with
higher gusts...The Kittitas Valley can expect winds of 25-35 MPH
with higher gusts possible especially in the afternoon. Will need to
consider a possible wind advisory here with the afternoon package. 77

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. VFR conditions are expected through the next
24 hours.  A low pressure system will continue to move onshore
through the period with generally mid and high clouds over the
region.  A few showers are possible along and just east of the
Cascades through the day and then spread over the Blue Mountains
this evening with a slight chance thunderstorms over the Wallowa
Mountains. West to southwest winds will increase through the day
with 15 to 20 kts at most sites by mid to late afternoon.  The wind
will decrease slightly overnight but increase again on Friday. 93

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...An upper low is located off
of Northern Vancouver Island this morning and will sink south to the
Washington coast today. Clouds and isolated showers are circulating
around the low and into the area. The showers are limited to the
Washington Cascades thus far with trace amounts at Ellensburg and
near Yakima. Expect that as the low approaches there will be
isolated showers expanding into the Oregon Cascades, North Central
Oregon and the Columbia Gorge, but the rest of the area should be
dry. Late in the afternoon and this evening, the low will move
ashore and this will expand showers into the Eastern Oregon
mountains through the night with a slight chance of a thunderstorm
or two in Wallowa County through early evening. The low will also be
tightening up pressure gradients and the Columbia Basin should have
westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph this afternoon and continuing through
the night. By Friday morning, the low will be centered over the
Columbia Basin but will be moving quickly to the east, reaching the
Idaho panhandle by mid day and then into Montana by the evening.
This will give the lower elevations a chance of showers and the
mountains a chance of showers in the morning although north of the
Tri-Cities and Central Oregon should remain dry. Showers will taper
off rapidly in the afternoon with just the Cascades and eastern
mountains having a chance of showers by mid afternoon. There will
also be a slight chance of thunderstorms in the Northern Blue
Mountains and Wallowa County. The bigger story will be winds on
Friday as the Columbia Basin will be reaching 15 to 30 mph in the
afternoon. The Kittitas Valley may reach 25 to 35 mph and a wind
advisory may be needed there. A ridge will build over the area
Friday night and Saturday and fair and dry weather with light winds
are expected. Temperatures today will be 7-10 degrees cooler than
yesterday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s with mid 60s to mid
70s in the mountains. Friday with the low overhead will see
temperatures in the lower to mid 70s with 60s in the mountains. On
saturday temperatures will rebound to the upper 70s to mid 80s with
70s in the mountains. Perry

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...A ridge of high pressure is
expected to build across the two state area this weekend. This dry
weather pattern should persist into next week with a warming trend
expected.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A few showers could develop across the area
today but vfr conditions can be expected across all tafs for the
next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  54  70  49 /  10  20  20  10
ALW  78  56  72  55 /  10  20  30  10
PSC  83  56  76  52 /  10  10  20  10
YKM  79  50  74  47 /  20  10  10  10
HRI  80  55  73  51 /  10  10  20  10
ELN  73  52  68  50 /  30  20  20  10
RDM  72  41  68  36 /  10  20  10   0
LGD  76  49  64  44 /  10  40  30  10
GCD  77  48  67  43 /  10  30  30   0
DLS  73  54  71  53 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

77/93/93




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231546
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
846 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...No updates planned this morning. A weak cold front
is edging toward the coast this morning. We`ve only seen one site
measure any rain (near Coos Bay), but plenty of clouds have
streamed onshore ahead of the front. The front will move across
the west side today and produce a few showers mainly at the coast
and in the Umpqua Basin. We can`t rule out a shower elsewhere, but
it is unlikely. East of the Cascades, we`ll see gusty west-
southwest winds in advance of the front this afternoon, then the
front moves through this evening. We can`t rule out a shower with
the front over there either, but the odds are against it. All
areas will be cooler than yesterday but to a lesser degree over in
Modoc and Lake Counties where the front will arrive later. -Wright

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 442 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...An upper low well to the north will sink southward
and becoming centered off the Washington and Northern Oregon coast
today. Meanwhile, a front will gradually push into the coast this
morning and inland during the day. This pattern will bring cooler
temperatures, breezy west winds, and showers. The low will shift
inland tonight but remain centered north of the area, then will
shift eastward on Friday. A warming trend follows Saturday into
Sunday as an upper level ridge builds over the area.

Light showers are expected to move into coastal areas this morning
then spread inland into western portions of the area this
afternoon, mainly the Umpqua Valley and Southern Oregon Cascades.
As the upper low moves inland centered just to the north, expect
continued showers this evening and into tonight for these areas.
Some light showers may also spread into the Rogue, Applegate, and
Illinois Valleys.

East of the Cascades and in Northern California expect mainly dry
weather today and tonight. Breezy west to northwest winds are
expected though, especially from the Cascades eastward late this
afternoon and this evening.

Shower activity will taper off late tonight into Friday morning as
the low shifts east. On Friday expect continued cooler than normal
temperatures.

On Saturday, daytime temperatures will warm 10 to 12 degrees with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for many west side inland
valleys and into the 80s for eastern valleys. A surface thermal
trough is expected to bring offshore easterly flow to the coastal
mountains and may allow a mild warming effect in the Brookings
area. The ridge pattern remains over the region Sunday with a
shortwave trough moving into the ridge Sunday night and Monday.
There are some indications that a slight chance for showers or
thunderstorms is possible near the Southern Oregon Cascades Monday
afternoon and evening. Will need to monitor this with future model
runs.

In the extended, models continue to show a ridge dominating the
West with shortwaves moving into area Tuesday through late next
week. This will result in very warm temperatures with highs around
10 to 15 degrees above normal. With models showing shortwaves to
move into the area from the west with an increase in mid level
moisture and instability, will need to monitor for the possibility
of isolated thunderstorms. Current models are showing low
confidence on when and where any convective activity will develop
next week. Have kept mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast.
/CC

AVIATION...For the 23/12Z TAF cycle...MVFR ceilings have
moved into the coast north of Cape Blanco early this morning in
response to a cold front pushing in from the Pacific. Expect these
ceilings and some light rain to spread inland into the Umpqua Valley
near Roseburg later this morning or this afternoon. Terrain
along and west of the Cascades will be obscured at times. VFR
will prevail to the south of the Umpqua Divide and also east of
the Cascades. Gusty northwest to west winds will develop this
afternoon and evening, especially over the East Side. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Thu 23 June 2016...A weak cold
front will move onshore today. Light to moderate southwest winds
this morning will shift to the northwest this afternoon and evening.
Seas will remain relatively low. A thermal trough will redevelop
Friday into the weekend...bringing a return of strong north winds
and choppy seas. -Spilde

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 AM PDT Thu 23 June 2016...The main short
term concern will be gusty southwest to west winds this afternoon
and evening...especially east of the Cascades. The strongest winds
will be over the higher terrain east of the Cascades with frequent
30 to 35 mph gusts...perhaps even up to 40 mph in the windier spots.
Despite the expected gusty winds this afternoon and evening, we are
also expecting several degrees of cooling along with an increase in
relative humidity as a cold front passes through. No precipitation
is expected east of the Cascades, but some light rain will likely
occur today along the coast, in the Umpqua Valley and the Cascades
north of about Highway 140.

An upper low will swing north of the area Friday morning, then move
east Friday afternoon. The models show a relatively strong west to
northwest flow at 700 mb for this time of the year as the upper
trough moves through. Thus, there is concern for gusty west to
northwest winds to remain an issue Friday afternoon east of the
Cascades. Temperatures should remain cool and relative humidities
higher on Friday and and it will be dry.

Dry and much warmer weather is on the way starting Saturday and
could last into at least the middle of next week. While we are not
expecting a full blown heat wave, max temperatures are expected to
average 10-15 degrees above normal. A thermal trough will redevelop
over this weekend bringing further drying above the mid slopes along
with mild overnight temperatures. -Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...None.

$$

TRW/TRW/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231546
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
846 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...No updates planned this morning. A weak cold front
is edging toward the coast this morning. We`ve only seen one site
measure any rain (near Coos Bay), but plenty of clouds have
streamed onshore ahead of the front. The front will move across
the west side today and produce a few showers mainly at the coast
and in the Umpqua Basin. We can`t rule out a shower elsewhere, but
it is unlikely. East of the Cascades, we`ll see gusty west-
southwest winds in advance of the front this afternoon, then the
front moves through this evening. We can`t rule out a shower with
the front over there either, but the odds are against it. All
areas will be cooler than yesterday but to a lesser degree over in
Modoc and Lake Counties where the front will arrive later. -Wright

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 442 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...An upper low well to the north will sink southward
and becoming centered off the Washington and Northern Oregon coast
today. Meanwhile, a front will gradually push into the coast this
morning and inland during the day. This pattern will bring cooler
temperatures, breezy west winds, and showers. The low will shift
inland tonight but remain centered north of the area, then will
shift eastward on Friday. A warming trend follows Saturday into
Sunday as an upper level ridge builds over the area.

Light showers are expected to move into coastal areas this morning
then spread inland into western portions of the area this
afternoon, mainly the Umpqua Valley and Southern Oregon Cascades.
As the upper low moves inland centered just to the north, expect
continued showers this evening and into tonight for these areas.
Some light showers may also spread into the Rogue, Applegate, and
Illinois Valleys.

East of the Cascades and in Northern California expect mainly dry
weather today and tonight. Breezy west to northwest winds are
expected though, especially from the Cascades eastward late this
afternoon and this evening.

Shower activity will taper off late tonight into Friday morning as
the low shifts east. On Friday expect continued cooler than normal
temperatures.

On Saturday, daytime temperatures will warm 10 to 12 degrees with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for many west side inland
valleys and into the 80s for eastern valleys. A surface thermal
trough is expected to bring offshore easterly flow to the coastal
mountains and may allow a mild warming effect in the Brookings
area. The ridge pattern remains over the region Sunday with a
shortwave trough moving into the ridge Sunday night and Monday.
There are some indications that a slight chance for showers or
thunderstorms is possible near the Southern Oregon Cascades Monday
afternoon and evening. Will need to monitor this with future model
runs.

In the extended, models continue to show a ridge dominating the
West with shortwaves moving into area Tuesday through late next
week. This will result in very warm temperatures with highs around
10 to 15 degrees above normal. With models showing shortwaves to
move into the area from the west with an increase in mid level
moisture and instability, will need to monitor for the possibility
of isolated thunderstorms. Current models are showing low
confidence on when and where any convective activity will develop
next week. Have kept mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast.
/CC

AVIATION...For the 23/12Z TAF cycle...MVFR ceilings have
moved into the coast north of Cape Blanco early this morning in
response to a cold front pushing in from the Pacific. Expect these
ceilings and some light rain to spread inland into the Umpqua Valley
near Roseburg later this morning or this afternoon. Terrain
along and west of the Cascades will be obscured at times. VFR
will prevail to the south of the Umpqua Divide and also east of
the Cascades. Gusty northwest to west winds will develop this
afternoon and evening, especially over the East Side. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Thu 23 June 2016...A weak cold
front will move onshore today. Light to moderate southwest winds
this morning will shift to the northwest this afternoon and evening.
Seas will remain relatively low. A thermal trough will redevelop
Friday into the weekend...bringing a return of strong north winds
and choppy seas. -Spilde

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 AM PDT Thu 23 June 2016...The main short
term concern will be gusty southwest to west winds this afternoon
and evening...especially east of the Cascades. The strongest winds
will be over the higher terrain east of the Cascades with frequent
30 to 35 mph gusts...perhaps even up to 40 mph in the windier spots.
Despite the expected gusty winds this afternoon and evening, we are
also expecting several degrees of cooling along with an increase in
relative humidity as a cold front passes through. No precipitation
is expected east of the Cascades, but some light rain will likely
occur today along the coast, in the Umpqua Valley and the Cascades
north of about Highway 140.

An upper low will swing north of the area Friday morning, then move
east Friday afternoon. The models show a relatively strong west to
northwest flow at 700 mb for this time of the year as the upper
trough moves through. Thus, there is concern for gusty west to
northwest winds to remain an issue Friday afternoon east of the
Cascades. Temperatures should remain cool and relative humidities
higher on Friday and and it will be dry.

Dry and much warmer weather is on the way starting Saturday and
could last into at least the middle of next week. While we are not
expecting a full blown heat wave, max temperatures are expected to
average 10-15 degrees above normal. A thermal trough will redevelop
over this weekend bringing further drying above the mid slopes along
with mild overnight temperatures. -Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...None.

$$

TRW/TRW/TRW




000
FXUS65 KBOI 231529 CCA
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Boise ID
929 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...An upper level closed low currently situated off the
Pacific Northwest coast will move inland across WA tonight into NW
MT by Saturday morning. Prefrontal southwest winds will develop
across SE Oregon and the higher terrain of SW Idaho this
afternoon. Temperatures could be slightly warmer than the forecast
reflects today with the strong southwest flow aloft in the
Treasure and Magic Valleys. Current temperatures at Boise are
running around 5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. As this
system moves inland, the associated cold front will not be well
defined as it moves through the region. Cooler air will usher in
throughout the night into Friday morning. Measurable precipitation
will be confined to the central Idaho mountains and areas north
with sprinkles possible elsewhere along the front. W to NW post
frontal winds expected Friday afternoon with temperatures lowering
15-20 degrees on Friday compared to today. Current forecast
reflects this well, with no major updates planned.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with mid to upper level ceilings moving in
from the west out ahead of the next upper level trough. Surface
winds will increase through the day with the approaching trough,
southwest to northwest 10-15kts with gusts 20-25kts. Winds aloft to
10k feet MSL southwest 20-35kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...Temperatures will not be as
warm today as an upper level trough approaches the Pacific
Northwest. A cold front accompanying the trough will swing through
the region tonight. The front will be followed by much cooler
temperatures and breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph with higher
gusts Friday afternoon. The upper trough will mainly pass by to
our north. However, the southern portion of it will be accompanied
by a chance of showers and a slight chance of afternoon
thunderstorms, mainly from Baker County east into the West
Central Mountains.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Thursday...Models continue to
show above average agreement through the period. The upper level
trough exits to the east Friday night. Unseasonably cool air,
clear skies, and light winds will allow temperatures to fall to
around 10 degrees below normal by early Saturday morning. A
warming trend will commence on Saturday as an upper level ridge
builds over the western U.S. Highs will be around 10 degrees above
normal Monday through Thursday, with no precipitation.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JC
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 231527
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
927 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...An upper level closed low currently situated off the
Pacific Northwest coast will move inland across WA tonight into NW
MT by Saturday morning. Prefrontal southwest winds will develop
across SE Oregon and the higher terrain of SW Idaho this
afternoon. Temperatures could be slightly warmer than forecast
reflects today with the strong southwest flow aloft in the
Treasure and Magic Valleys. Current temperatures at Boise are
running around 5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. As this
system moves inland, the associated cold front will not be well
defined as it moves through the region. Cooler air will usher in
throughout the night into Friday morning. Measurable precipitation
will be confined to the central Idaho mountains and areas north
with sprinkles possible elsewhere along the front. W to NW post
frontal winds expected Friday afternoon with temperatures lowering
15-20 degrees on Friday compared to today. Current forecast
reflects this well, with no major updates planned.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with mid to upper level ceilings moving in
from the west out ahead of the next upper level trough. Surface
winds will increase through the day with the approaching trough,
southwest to northwest 10-15kts with gusts 20-25kts. Winds aloft to
10k feet MSL southwest 20-35kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...Temperatures will not be as
warm today as an upper level trough approaches the Pacific
Northwest. A cold front accompanying the trough will swing through
the region tonight. The front will be followed by much cooler
temperatures and breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph with higher
gusts Friday afternoon. The upper trough will mainly pass by to
our north. However, the southern portion of it will be accompanied
by a chance of showers and a slight chance of afternoon
thunderstorms, mainly from Baker County east into the West
Central Mountains.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Thursday...Models continue to
show above average agreement through the period. The upper level
trough exits to the east Friday night. Unseasonably cool air,
clear skies, and light winds will allow temperatures to fall to
around 10 degrees below normal by early Saturday morning. A
warming trend will commence on Saturday as an upper level ridge
builds over the western U.S. Highs will be around 10 degrees above
normal Monday through Thursday, with no precipitation.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JC
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 231527
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
927 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...An upper level closed low currently situated off the
Pacific Northwest coast will move inland across WA tonight into NW
MT by Saturday morning. Prefrontal southwest winds will develop
across SE Oregon and the higher terrain of SW Idaho this
afternoon. Temperatures could be slightly warmer than forecast
reflects today with the strong southwest flow aloft in the
Treasure and Magic Valleys. Current temperatures at Boise are
running around 5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. As this
system moves inland, the associated cold front will not be well
defined as it moves through the region. Cooler air will usher in
throughout the night into Friday morning. Measurable precipitation
will be confined to the central Idaho mountains and areas north
with sprinkles possible elsewhere along the front. W to NW post
frontal winds expected Friday afternoon with temperatures lowering
15-20 degrees on Friday compared to today. Current forecast
reflects this well, with no major updates planned.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with mid to upper level ceilings moving in
from the west out ahead of the next upper level trough. Surface
winds will increase through the day with the approaching trough,
southwest to northwest 10-15kts with gusts 20-25kts. Winds aloft to
10k feet MSL southwest 20-35kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...Temperatures will not be as
warm today as an upper level trough approaches the Pacific
Northwest. A cold front accompanying the trough will swing through
the region tonight. The front will be followed by much cooler
temperatures and breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph with higher
gusts Friday afternoon. The upper trough will mainly pass by to
our north. However, the southern portion of it will be accompanied
by a chance of showers and a slight chance of afternoon
thunderstorms, mainly from Baker County east into the West
Central Mountains.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Thursday...Models continue to
show above average agreement through the period. The upper level
trough exits to the east Friday night. Unseasonably cool air,
clear skies, and light winds will allow temperatures to fall to
around 10 degrees below normal by early Saturday morning. A
warming trend will commence on Saturday as an upper level ridge
builds over the western U.S. Highs will be around 10 degrees above
normal Monday through Thursday, with no precipitation.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JC
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231142
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
442 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...An upper low well to the north will sink southward
and becoming centered off the Washington and Northern Oregon coast
today. Meanwhile, a front will gradually push into the coast this
morning and inland during the day. This pattern will bring cooler
temperatures, breezy west winds, and showers. The low will shift
inland tonight but remain centered north of the area, then will
shift eastward on Friday. A warming trend follows Saturday into
Sunday as an upper level ridge builds over the area.

Light showers are expected to move into coastal areas this morning
then spread inland into western portions of the area this
afternoon, mainly the Umpqua Valley and Southern Oregon Cascades.
As the upper low moves inland centered just to the north, expect
continued showers this evening and into tonight for these areas.
Some light showers may also spread into the Rogue, Applegate, and
Illinois Valleys.

East of the Cascades and in Northern California expect mainly dry
weather today and tonight. Breezy west to northwest winds are
expected though, especially from the Cascades eastward late this
afternoon and this evening.

Shower activity will taper off late tonight into Friday morning as
the low shifts east. On Friday expect continued cooler than normal
temperatures.

On Saturday, daytime temperatures will warm 10 to 12 degrees with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for many west side inland
valleys and into the 80s for eastern valleys. A surface thermal
trough is expected to bring offshore easterly flow to the coastal
mountains and may allow a mild warming effect in the Brookings
area. The ridge pattern remains over the region Sunday with a
shortwave trough moving into the ridge Sunday night and Monday.
There are some indications that a slight chance for showers or
thunderstorms is possible near the Southern Oregon Cascades Monday
afternoon and evening. Will need to monitor this with future model
runs.

In the extended, models continue to show a ridge dominating the
West with shortwaves moving into area Tuesday through late next
week. This will result in very warm temperatures with highs around
10 to 15 degrees above normal. With models showing shortwaves to
move into the area from the west with an increase in mid level
moisture and instability, will need to monitor for the possibility
of isolated thunderstorms. Current models are showing low
confidence on when and where any convective activity will develop
next week. Have kept mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast.
/CC

&&

.AVIATION...For the 23/12Z TAF cycle...MVFR ceilings have
moved into the coast north of Cape Blanco early this morning in
response to a cold front pushing in from the Pacific. Expect these
ceilings and some light rain to spread inland into the Umpqua Valley
near Roseburg later this morning or this afternoon. Terrain
along and west of the Cascades will be obscured at times. VFR
will prevail to the south of the Umpqua Divide and also east of
the Cascades. Gusty northwest to west winds will develop this
afternoon and evening, especially over the East Side. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Thu 23 June 2016...A weak cold
front will move onshore today. Light to moderate southwest winds
this morning will shift to the northwest this afternoon and evening.
Seas will remain relatively low. A thermal trough will redevelop
Friday into the weekend...bringing a return of strong north winds
and choppy seas. -Spilde

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 AM PDT Thu 23 June 2016...The main short
term concern will be gusty southwest to west winds this afternoon
and evening...especially east of the Cascades. The strongest winds
will be over the higher terrain east of the Cascades with frequent
30 to 35 mph gusts...perhaps even up to 40 mph in the windier spots.
Despite the expected gusty winds this afternoon and evening, we are
also expecting several degrees of cooling along with an increase in
relative humidity as a cold front passes through. No precipitation
is expected east of the Cascades, but some light rain will likely
occur today along the coast, in the Umpqua Valley and the Cascades
north of about Highway 140.

An upper low will swing north of the area Friday morning, then move
east Friday afternoon. The models show a relatively strong west to
northwest flow at 700 mb for this time of the year as the upper
trough moves through. Thus, there is concern for gusty west to
northwest winds to remain an issue Friday afternoon east of the
Cascades. Temperatures should remain cool and relative humidities
higher on Friday and and it will be dry.

Dry and much warmer weather is on the way starting Saturday and
could last into at least the middle of next week. While we are not
expecting a full blown heat wave, max temperatures are expected to
average 10-15 degrees above normal. A thermal trough will redevelop
over this weekend bringing further drying above the mid slopes along
with mild overnight temperatures. -Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...None.

$$

MAS/CC/NSK




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231031
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
331 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...An upper low well to the north will sink southward
and becoming centered off the Washington and Northern Oregon coast
today. Meanwhile, a front will gradually push into the coast this
morning and inland during the day. This pattern will bring cooler
temperatures, breezy west winds, and showers. The low will shift
inland tonight but remain centered north of the area, then will
shift eastward on Friday. A warming trend follows Saturday into
Sunday as an upper level ridge builds over the area.

Light showers are expected to move into coastal areas this morning
then spread inland into western portions of the area this
afternoon, mainly the Umpqua Valley and Southern Oregon Cascades.
As the upper low moves inland centered just to the north, expect
continued showers this evening and into tonight for these areas.
Some light showers may also spread into the Rogue, Applegate, and
Illinois Valleys.

East of the Cascades and in Northern California expect mainly dry
weather today and tonight. Breezy west to northwest winds are
expected though, especially from the Cascades eastward late this
afternoon and this evening.

Shower activity will taper off late tonight into Friday morning as
the low shifts east. On Friday expect continued cooler than normal
temperatures.

On Saturday, daytime temperatures will warm 10 to 12 degrees with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for many west side inland
valleys and into the 80s for eastern valleys. A surface thermal
trough is expected to bring offshore easterly flow to the coastal
mountains and may allow a mild warming effect in the Brookings
area. The ridge pattern remains over the region Sunday with a
shortwave trough moving into the ridge Sunday night and Monday.
There are some indications that a slight chance for showers or
thunderstorms is possible near the Southern Oregon Cascades Monday
afternoon and evening. Will need to monitor this with future model
runs.

In the extended, models continue to show a ridge dominating the
West with shortwaves moving into area Tuesday through late next
week. This will result in very warm temperatures with highs around
10 to 15 degrees above normal. With models showing shortwaves to
move into the area from the west with an increase in mid level
moisture and instability, will need to monitor for the possibility
of isolated thunderstorms. Current models are showing low
confidence on when and where any convective activity will develop
next week. Have kept mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast.




&&

.AVIATION...For  the 23/06Z TAF cycle...MVFR ceilings are
expected to move into the coast early Thursday morning with VFR
conditions continuing inland. A cold front will approach the coast
Thursday morning which could push ceilings further down to IFR
there along with some light rain. Lower clouds and ceilings that
may partially obscure terrain will move inland north of the Umpqua
Divide towards daybreak Thursday. There is a slight chance of MVFR
ceilings making it into Medford Thursday afternoon, but the
forecast calls for VFR at this time. Gusty northwest to west winds
will accompany the front in most locations tomorrow afternoon, but
especially east of the Cascades. -Sven/SK


&&

.MARINE...Updated 900 PM PDT Wed 22 June 2016...A thermal trough is
weakening with north winds and steep seas easing this evening.
Winds will shift to the southwest...but remain relatively light
tonight...then a weak front will move onshore Thursday. The thermal
trough will redevelop along the coast Friday into the
weekend...bringing a return of strong north winds and choppy seas. -
Sven/SK


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 AM PDT Thu 23 June 2016...The main short
term concern will be gusty southwest to west winds this afternoon
and evening...especially east of the Cascades. The strongest winds
will be over the higher terrain east of the Cascades with frequent
30 to 35 mph gusts...perhaps even up to 40 mph in the windier spots.
Despite the expected gusty winds this afternoon and evening, we are
also expecting several degrees of cooling along with an increase in
relative humidity as a cold front passes through. No precipitation
is expected east of the Cascades, but some light rain will likely
occur today along the coast, in the Umpqua Valley and the Cascades
north of about Highway 140.

An upper low will swing north of the area Friday morning, then move
east Friday afternoon. The models show a relatively strong west to
northwest flow at 700 mb for this time of the year as the upper
trough moves through. Thus, there is concern for gusty west to
northwest winds to remain an issue Friday afternoon east of the
Cascades. Temperatures should remain cool and relative humidities
higher on Friday and and it will be dry.

Dry and much warmer weather is on the way starting Saturday and
could last into at least the middle of next week. While we are not
expecting a full blown heat wave, max temperatures are expected to
average 10-15 degrees above normal. A thermal trough will redevelop
over this weekend bringing further drying above the mid slopes along
with mild overnight temperatures. -Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...None.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231031
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
331 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...An upper low well to the north will sink southward
and becoming centered off the Washington and Northern Oregon coast
today. Meanwhile, a front will gradually push into the coast this
morning and inland during the day. This pattern will bring cooler
temperatures, breezy west winds, and showers. The low will shift
inland tonight but remain centered north of the area, then will
shift eastward on Friday. A warming trend follows Saturday into
Sunday as an upper level ridge builds over the area.

Light showers are expected to move into coastal areas this morning
then spread inland into western portions of the area this
afternoon, mainly the Umpqua Valley and Southern Oregon Cascades.
As the upper low moves inland centered just to the north, expect
continued showers this evening and into tonight for these areas.
Some light showers may also spread into the Rogue, Applegate, and
Illinois Valleys.

East of the Cascades and in Northern California expect mainly dry
weather today and tonight. Breezy west to northwest winds are
expected though, especially from the Cascades eastward late this
afternoon and this evening.

Shower activity will taper off late tonight into Friday morning as
the low shifts east. On Friday expect continued cooler than normal
temperatures.

On Saturday, daytime temperatures will warm 10 to 12 degrees with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for many west side inland
valleys and into the 80s for eastern valleys. A surface thermal
trough is expected to bring offshore easterly flow to the coastal
mountains and may allow a mild warming effect in the Brookings
area. The ridge pattern remains over the region Sunday with a
shortwave trough moving into the ridge Sunday night and Monday.
There are some indications that a slight chance for showers or
thunderstorms is possible near the Southern Oregon Cascades Monday
afternoon and evening. Will need to monitor this with future model
runs.

In the extended, models continue to show a ridge dominating the
West with shortwaves moving into area Tuesday through late next
week. This will result in very warm temperatures with highs around
10 to 15 degrees above normal. With models showing shortwaves to
move into the area from the west with an increase in mid level
moisture and instability, will need to monitor for the possibility
of isolated thunderstorms. Current models are showing low
confidence on when and where any convective activity will develop
next week. Have kept mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast.




&&

.AVIATION...For  the 23/06Z TAF cycle...MVFR ceilings are
expected to move into the coast early Thursday morning with VFR
conditions continuing inland. A cold front will approach the coast
Thursday morning which could push ceilings further down to IFR
there along with some light rain. Lower clouds and ceilings that
may partially obscure terrain will move inland north of the Umpqua
Divide towards daybreak Thursday. There is a slight chance of MVFR
ceilings making it into Medford Thursday afternoon, but the
forecast calls for VFR at this time. Gusty northwest to west winds
will accompany the front in most locations tomorrow afternoon, but
especially east of the Cascades. -Sven/SK


&&

.MARINE...Updated 900 PM PDT Wed 22 June 2016...A thermal trough is
weakening with north winds and steep seas easing this evening.
Winds will shift to the southwest...but remain relatively light
tonight...then a weak front will move onshore Thursday. The thermal
trough will redevelop along the coast Friday into the
weekend...bringing a return of strong north winds and choppy seas. -
Sven/SK


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 AM PDT Thu 23 June 2016...The main short
term concern will be gusty southwest to west winds this afternoon
and evening...especially east of the Cascades. The strongest winds
will be over the higher terrain east of the Cascades with frequent
30 to 35 mph gusts...perhaps even up to 40 mph in the windier spots.
Despite the expected gusty winds this afternoon and evening, we are
also expecting several degrees of cooling along with an increase in
relative humidity as a cold front passes through. No precipitation
is expected east of the Cascades, but some light rain will likely
occur today along the coast, in the Umpqua Valley and the Cascades
north of about Highway 140.

An upper low will swing north of the area Friday morning, then move
east Friday afternoon. The models show a relatively strong west to
northwest flow at 700 mb for this time of the year as the upper
trough moves through. Thus, there is concern for gusty west to
northwest winds to remain an issue Friday afternoon east of the
Cascades. Temperatures should remain cool and relative humidities
higher on Friday and and it will be dry.

Dry and much warmer weather is on the way starting Saturday and
could last into at least the middle of next week. While we are not
expecting a full blown heat wave, max temperatures are expected to
average 10-15 degrees above normal. A thermal trough will redevelop
over this weekend bringing further drying above the mid slopes along
with mild overnight temperatures. -Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...None.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231007
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR 207
303 AM PDT Thu Jun 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure system and associated front
will move across the region today.  This weather system will bring
some light rain showers to the region and some cooler temperatures.
High pressure will build into the area Friday night and Saturday,
bringing a period of dry weather and seasonal temperatures that
should extend into the middle of next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)...Satellite imagery this
morning shows a compact low pressure system off the WA coast with an
attendant cold front moving into northwest Oregon.  The front will
continue to move across the interior this morning bringing some light
rain to the region.  Should see a little uptick in shower activity
this afternoon as the upper level low approaches and colder air aloft
begins to move into the area.  Maintained the slight chance of
thunderstorms in forecast for this evening as model soundings show
some moderate instability with steep low level lapse rates and some
speed shear.  Models in good consensus moving the upper level trough
into the Northern Rockies by Friday afternoon and a shortwave
ridge of high pressure moving into the region late Friday and
Saturday. tw

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) No changes. Previous
discussion follows...West/southwest flow aloft sets up for the
extended period, with a very weak/dry shortwave passage on Sunday.
This could deepen the marine layer along the central and north coast,
and push a few more morning clouds inland, but will otherwise have a
negligible effect on sensible weather. Appears the very seasonal
weather pattern developing this weekend will persist well into next
week, with low amplitude ridging aloft, light onshore flow at the
surface, patchy morning clouds but otherwise mostly clear/sunny
inland, and typical late June temperatures. Bright

&&

.AVIATION...Coastal TAF sites were seeing a mix of VFR and MVFR
conditions early this morning, but as a cold front moves through
this morning expect MVFR come to be the more dominant condition
today as showers become more widespread. Tonight after 03z, still a
mix of VFR and MVFR conditions, but it is likely that as showers
become more scattered, VFR conditions are likely to become more
frequent. Inland areas were generally VFR early this morning, and
are likely to remain so until the cold front moves through towards
midday around 18z to 20z. As showers pick up in the afternoon expect
more a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions lasting through 03z. VFR
likely to become prevailing condition again inland TAF sites after
03z, but with occasional MVFR conditions mainly associated with
showers.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Patchy light rain to move across the
area during the morning hours, with predominantly VFR conditions. A
mix of VFR and MVFR conditions is likely for the afternoon after a
cold front passes through between 18z and 20z. VFR likely to become
prevailing condition again after 03z, but temporary  MVFR conditions
are still likely overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Front moving se across the waters early this morning likely
to have some wind gusts up to 25 kt. The front however is expected
to move onshore between 7 and 9 am. Behind the front winds will turn
nw, with peak gusts dropping below 20 kt, so expect to allow the
small craft advisory for winds to expire this morning. Late tonight
and Fri lighter winds expected as a ridge of high pres pushes in. A
trough of low pres building up the coast out of the south during the
weekend will bring increasing north winds by late Sat, with gusts
likely to reach small craft criteria. The north winds are expected
to continue into early next week. With the increase in north winds,
steep seas are likely to develop as a result of the wind waves and
fresh swell. Wave heights however are expected to remain under 10
ft.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 8 AM PDT this morning for
    Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 nm.

&&
$$

Interact with us via social media:
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 231001
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
300 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...An upper low is located off
of Northern Vancouver Island this morning and will sink south to the
Washington coast today. Clouds and isolated showers are circulating
around the low and into the area. The showers are limited to the
Washington Cascades thus far with trace amounts at Ellensburg and
near Yakima. Expect that as the low approaches there will be
isolated showers expanding into the Oregon Cascades, North Central
Oregon and the Columbia Gorge, but the rest of the area should be
dry. Late in the afternoon and this evening, the low will move
ashore and this will expand showers into the Eastern Oregon
mountains through the night with a slight chance of a thunderstorm
or two in Wallowa County through early evening. The low will also be
tightening up pressure gradients and the Columbia Basin should have
westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph this afternoon and continuing through
the night. By Friday morning, the low will be centered over the
Columbia Basin but will be moving quickly to the east, reaching the
Idaho panhandle by mid day and then into Montana by the evening.
This will give the lower elevations a chance of showers and the
mountains a chance of showers in the morning although north of the
Tri-Cities and Central Oregon should remain dry. Showers will taper
off rapidly in the afternoon with just the Cascades and eastern
mountains having a chance of showers by mid afternoon. There will
also be a slight chance of thunderstorms in the Northern Blue
Mountains and Wallowa County. The bigger story will be winds on
Friday as the Columbia Basin will be reaching 15 to 30 mph in the
afternoon. The Kittitas Valley may reach 25 to 35 mph and a wind
advisory may be needed there. A ridge will build over the area
Friday night and Saturday and fair and dry weather with light winds
are expected. Temperatures today will be 7-10 degrees cooler than
yesterday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s with mid 60s to mid
70s in the mountains. Friday with the low overhead will see
temperatures in the lower to mid 70s with 60s in the mountains. On
saturday temperatures will rebound to the upper 70s to mid 80s with
70s in the mountains. Perry

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...A ridge of high pressure is
expected to build across the two state area this weekend. This dry
weather pattern should persist into next week with a warming trend
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A few showers could develop across the area
today but vfr conditions can be expected across all tafs for the
next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  77  52  70  49 /  10  20  20  10
ALW  78  57  72  55 /  10  20  30  10
PSC  81  55  76  52 /  10  10  20  10
YKM  78  49  74  47 /  20  20  10  10
HRI  79  54  73  51 /  10  10  20  10
ELN  73  50  68  50 /  30  20  20  10
RDM  72  41  68  36 /  10  20  10   0
LGD  75  49  64  44 /  10  30  30  10
GCD  76  48  67  43 /  10  20  30   0
DLS  73  55  71  53 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

83/97/97




000
FXUS65 KBOI 230906
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
306 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...Temperatures will not be as
warm today as an upper level trough approaches the Pacific
Northwest. A cold front accompanying the trough will swing through
the region tonight. The front will be followed by much cooler
temperatures and breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph with higher
gusts Friday afternoon. The upper trough will mainly pass by to
our north. However, the southern portion of it will be accompanied
by a chance of showers and a slight chance of afternoon
thunderstorms, mainly from Baker County east into the West
Central Mountains.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Thursday...Models continue to
show above average agreement through the period. The upper level
trough exits to the east Friday night. Unseasonably cool air,
clear skies, and light winds will allow temperatures to fall to
around 10 degrees below normal by early Saturday morning. A
warming trend will commence on Saturday as an upper level ridge
builds over the western U.S. Highs will be around 10 degrees above
normal Monday through Thursday, with no precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear skies. Surface winds southwest to
west 5-15 kts. Winds aloft southwest 10-20 kts through 10k ft msl.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS66 KMFR 230605
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1103 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016

.Updated aviation discussion.

.DISCUSSION...A cold front is due to bring cooler conditions to
the forecast area tomorrow, with temperatures about 5 to 10
degrees lower than today. Gusty northwest to west winds are
expected as well tomorrow afternoon, especially east of the
Cascades. Latest high-resolution, hourly-updated model output
shows rain arriving at the coast early Thursday morning and
reaching the Umpqua Basin by late Thursday morning. We can`t rule
out the chance for a shower in the Rogue Valley late Thursday
afternoon or evening, given that the NAM12 and WRF-NMM both show
rain in or around the valley. Models do suggest that the East Side
will remain dry.

Latest NAM12 output for precipitation amounts depict around one to
two-tenths of an inch of rain at the coast and just inland, with
less than a tenth over the Cascades and Siskiyous.

After a few days with below normal temperatures, a warming trend
will begin on Saturday. Please see the previous discussion below
for more details on this.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 23/06Z TAF cycle...MVFR ceilings are expected
to move into the coast early Thursday morning with VFR conditions
continuing inland. A cold front will approach the coast Thursday
morning which could push ceilings further down to IFR there along
with some light rain. Lower clouds and ceilings that may partially
obscure terrain will move inland north of the Umpqua Divide towards
daybreak Thursday. There is a slight chance of MVFR ceilings making
it into Medford Thursday afternoon, but the forecast calls for VFR at
this time. Gusty northwest to west winds will accompany the front in
most locations tomorrow afternoon, but especially east of
the Cascades. -Sven/SK

&&

.MARINE...Updated 500 PM PDT Wed 22 June 2016...A thermal trough
will weaken with north winds and steep seas easing by this evening.
Winds will shift to the southwest...but remain relatively light
Wednesday night...then a weak front will move onshore Thursday. The
thermal trough will redevelop along the coast Friday into the
weekend...bringing a return of strong north winds and choppy seas.
-Sven

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 213 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016/

SHORT TERM...Few changes to the forecast were needed today. An
upper level low centered near the Queen Charlotte Islands this
afternoon will move in over the Pacific Northwest over the next
couple of days and bring much cooler, occasionally breezy, and in
some places, showery weather.

A cold front stretches from the low south roughly along 130W to
around our latitude then off to the southwest. This front will
move into the coast tomorrow morning and then inland through the
day. The models generally indicate a good chance of measurable
rain along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin and then rapidly
decreasing chances for rain further south and east. We can`t rule
out a shower around Medford, but the odds are against anything
significant. This is pretty typical of systems coming from the
northwest - they usually don`t have all that much moisture. Breezy
southwest to west winds will accompany the front through the area
tomorrow, especially east of the Cascades. Models are showing
little in the way of instability, so lightning is not expected.

The main upper low moves across our area Thursday night and
Friday. With the upper cold pool passing at the coolest time of
day, there isn`t a lot of instability, so it probably won`t
produce much shower activity much less thunderstorms. It will
likely just be a largely dry trough passage with another bit of
wind in the afternoon, especially on the east side.

The trough moves east quickly Friday night. By Saturday, a
thermal trough redevelops along the coast, and things start to
dry out and heat up again. -Wright

LONG TERM...June 26th (Sunday)- June 30th (Thursday) The models
remain in pretty good agreement in the extended with a few minor
differences in details. All point to a continued dry and warm
conditions with no threat of precipitation. Max temperatures will
heat up, but were not expecting anything of significance with
readings averaging 10-15 degrees above normal. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...None.

$$

NSK/TRW/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 230605
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1103 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016

.Updated aviation discussion.

.DISCUSSION...A cold front is due to bring cooler conditions to
the forecast area tomorrow, with temperatures about 5 to 10
degrees lower than today. Gusty northwest to west winds are
expected as well tomorrow afternoon, especially east of the
Cascades. Latest high-resolution, hourly-updated model output
shows rain arriving at the coast early Thursday morning and
reaching the Umpqua Basin by late Thursday morning. We can`t rule
out the chance for a shower in the Rogue Valley late Thursday
afternoon or evening, given that the NAM12 and WRF-NMM both show
rain in or around the valley. Models do suggest that the East Side
will remain dry.

Latest NAM12 output for precipitation amounts depict around one to
two-tenths of an inch of rain at the coast and just inland, with
less than a tenth over the Cascades and Siskiyous.

After a few days with below normal temperatures, a warming trend
will begin on Saturday. Please see the previous discussion below
for more details on this.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 23/06Z TAF cycle...MVFR ceilings are expected
to move into the coast early Thursday morning with VFR conditions
continuing inland. A cold front will approach the coast Thursday
morning which could push ceilings further down to IFR there along
with some light rain. Lower clouds and ceilings that may partially
obscure terrain will move inland north of the Umpqua Divide towards
daybreak Thursday. There is a slight chance of MVFR ceilings making
it into Medford Thursday afternoon, but the forecast calls for VFR at
this time. Gusty northwest to west winds will accompany the front in
most locations tomorrow afternoon, but especially east of
the Cascades. -Sven/SK

&&

.MARINE...Updated 500 PM PDT Wed 22 June 2016...A thermal trough
will weaken with north winds and steep seas easing by this evening.
Winds will shift to the southwest...but remain relatively light
Wednesday night...then a weak front will move onshore Thursday. The
thermal trough will redevelop along the coast Friday into the
weekend...bringing a return of strong north winds and choppy seas.
-Sven

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 213 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016/

SHORT TERM...Few changes to the forecast were needed today. An
upper level low centered near the Queen Charlotte Islands this
afternoon will move in over the Pacific Northwest over the next
couple of days and bring much cooler, occasionally breezy, and in
some places, showery weather.

A cold front stretches from the low south roughly along 130W to
around our latitude then off to the southwest. This front will
move into the coast tomorrow morning and then inland through the
day. The models generally indicate a good chance of measurable
rain along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin and then rapidly
decreasing chances for rain further south and east. We can`t rule
out a shower around Medford, but the odds are against anything
significant. This is pretty typical of systems coming from the
northwest - they usually don`t have all that much moisture. Breezy
southwest to west winds will accompany the front through the area
tomorrow, especially east of the Cascades. Models are showing
little in the way of instability, so lightning is not expected.

The main upper low moves across our area Thursday night and
Friday. With the upper cold pool passing at the coolest time of
day, there isn`t a lot of instability, so it probably won`t
produce much shower activity much less thunderstorms. It will
likely just be a largely dry trough passage with another bit of
wind in the afternoon, especially on the east side.

The trough moves east quickly Friday night. By Saturday, a
thermal trough redevelops along the coast, and things start to
dry out and heat up again. -Wright

LONG TERM...June 26th (Sunday)- June 30th (Thursday) The models
remain in pretty good agreement in the extended with a few minor
differences in details. All point to a continued dry and warm
conditions with no threat of precipitation. Max temperatures will
heat up, but were not expecting anything of significance with
readings averaging 10-15 degrees above normal. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...None.

$$

NSK/TRW/SBN




000
FXUS66 KPDT 230503 AAA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1003 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016

Updated for Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...A few showers/sprinkles just across the Cascade crest
this evening.  Some of these may make it into northern Yakima and
parts of Kittitas County.  Otherwise fairly quiet tonight.  As far
as the forecast goes, a few minor adjustments to the grids this
evening. With cloud cover over the area tonight have pulled up Min
T`s a degree or two, but have also pulled back on Max T`s tomorrow
as it appears that the next system may move in with the modified
airmass a little quicker. Overall will still be a warm day tomorrow.
The coolest air will be in place Friday and Friday night. Will need
to keep an eye on the central Oregon area Friday night as the
current forecast has Min T`s in the mid 30s.  Therefore it`s
possible some localized areas could approach freezing.  Weber

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24
hours.  High clouds continue to increase overnight the gradually
lower to mid clouds Thursday with CIGS down 8-10 KFT AGL by the end
of the forecast period. Winds will be mostly 10 KTS or less. Between
12-18Z expect west winds to pick up 10-20 KTS with gusts 25-30 KTS.
Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...An upper low drifting south-
southeast along the British Columbia coast will reach the Washington
coast by Thursday afternoon. As such, will see increasing mid and
high level cloudiness across the region tonight into Thursday
morning. Will also see some showers gradually develop and increase
over portions of the Washington Cascade east slopes this evening.
These showers will eventually work south into the Oregon Cascade
east slopes overnight. Shower coverages will increase over Cascade
east slopes Thursday. Meanwhile a few showers will work into the
Kittitas and Yakima valleys, the Columbia River Gorge and North-
Central Oregon as the day progresses. There could be enough
instability for stray thunderstorms over the Washington Cascade east
slopes Thursday afternoon. At this time will not mention as expect a
westerly flow to undercut the instability and inhibit their
development. The upper low will move onshore Thursday night and
swing east across the region Friday. Thus varying coverages of
showers will spread across the remainder of the region Thursday
evening, continuing into Friday afternoon. Stray thunderstorms may
be possible from the Blue Mountains east to Wallowa county late
Friday morning into mid Friday afternoon. Winds will become breezy
to locally windy on Friday as well. High temps Friday will be much
cooler, running from the 50s in the mountains to the 70s at the
lowest elevations. The upper low will rapidly move east away from the
PACNW Friday night with an upper ridge expected to build overhead by
Saturday. Thus will see the showers end Friday evening with dry
conditions expected Saturday. High temps Saturday will warm 10 to 14
degrees over Friday. 90

LONG TERM...Saturday night through Wednesday...A flat ridge of high
pressure will be over the region through the long term providing hot
and dry weather. Models are indicating some weak instability at
times through the extended but moisture is limited so just expecting
some flat cumulus buildups.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  78  55  71 /   0  10  30  20
ALW  61  79  56  71 /   0  10  30  30
PSC  60  82  58  76 /   0  10  20  20
YKM  56  78  51  75 /  10  20  20  10
HRI  58  81  58  76 /   0  10  20  20
ELN  55  73  54  68 /  10  30  20  20
RDM  46  73  41  69 /  10  10  20  10
LGD  51  75  49  64 /   0  10  30  30
GCD  49  77  47  69 /   0  10  20  30
DLS  59  73  55  72 /  10  30  30  20

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

89/91/89




000
FXUS66 KPQR 230348
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR 207
846 PM PDT Wed Jun 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low and associated surface front is moving
into the area tonight, and will move across Southwest Washington and
Northwest Oregon on Thursday. This will lead to a period of cooler
temperatures and showers Thursday, with gradual improvement on
Friday. High pressure builds into the area Friday night and Saturday,
initiating a period of dry weather and seasonal temperatures that
should extend into the middle of next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)....Water vapor imagery shows
the upper low currently around 51N/131W. Warm front with this system
has starting to bring rain onto the Washington Coast to our north.
Satellite imagery shows fairly significant precipitable water values
for this time of year, around 1-1.3 inches. With that in mind, we
have already seen rain amounts of around 0.25 inches up along the
Olympic Coast. Think amounts will be less down along the South
Washington and North Oregon Coast, but did bump up precipitation
amounts a bit. Models are in fairly good agreement with the timing of
this upper low as it moves onshore Thursday.  Will see showers
lingering into Thursday morning behind the front, but showers will
start to increase in the afternoon and evening due to cool air
advection aloft as the base of the upper low moves right over the
northern half of our area. Added a slight chance for thunderstorms
inland around Portland northward for Thursday evening from 00Z-06Z,
because moderate instability mainly in the evening could generate an
isolated thunderstorm or two. Otherwise, no changes to the rest of
the forecast. Models all move the upper trough well into the Northern
Rockies by Friday afternoon. Therefore, models in good agreement with
shortwave ridge improving conditions through the day Friday, with
most of our area becoming dry with decreasing clouds Friday
afternoon. Typical PacNW summer looks to return on Saturday. -McCoy

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) No changes. Previous
discussion follows...West/southwest flow aloft sets up for the
extended period, with a very weak/dry shortwave passage on Sunday.
This could deepen the marine layer along the central and north coast,
and push a few more morning clouds inland, but will otherwise have a
negligible effect on sensible weather. Appears the very seasonal
weather pattern developing this weekend will persist well into next
week, with low amplitude ridging aloft, light onshore flow at the
surface, patchy morning clouds but otherwise mostly clear/sunny
inland, and typical late June temperatures. Bright

&&

.AVIATION...A frontal system will approach the coast overnight and
move onshore Thursday morning. An associated rain band apparent on
the latest radar imagery nearing the S Washington and N Oregon
coast. Expect precipitation to begin at KAST before 06Z, then
spread further down the coast overnight. MVFR conditions to develop
at the coast overnight. Light rain will also spread into the
interior overnight, but think conditions will remain predominantly
VFR until Thu morning. MVFR cigs should eventually push into the
inland TAF sites sometime between 12Z and 18Z Thu as the cold
front pushes onshore. Showers will continue Thu afternoon and
evening behind the cold front, with the potential for a few
thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. Think that
conditions will be a mix of VFR and MVFR during this time.

Winds to turn southerly late tonight and become gusty along the
immediate coast between 09Z to 15Z Thu.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Light rain to spread in overnight, but
conditions will likely remain VFR into Thu morning. Then MVFR
conditions should develop sometime between 12Z and 18Z Thu as a
cold front moves onshore. Showers continue Thu afternoon and
evening behind the cold front with a mixture of MVFR and VFR.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Thu evening. Pyle

&&

.MARINE...Winds are turning to the south this evening ahead of an
approaching front, which is looking a bit stronger than previous
model runs had been suggesting. The 00Z NAM and the latest runs of
the RAP model suggest that wind gusts to 25 kt will affect most of
the waters after midnight through early Thu morning. Decided to
expand the small craft advisory to include the outer waters. There
is also the hint of a coastal jet on the models between 09Z and
15Z Thu. Winds will subside somewhat and becoming northwesterly
later Thu morning as the cold front pushes onshore. Winds remain
westerly at less than 20 kt later Thu into Fri. High pressure
will then rebuild Friday afternoon and remain through the weekend
and at least the first half of next week. With thermal low pres
developing over N Calif, this will bring a return to northerly
winds over the waters. They will be gusty at times, particularly
during the afternoon and evening hours. Small craft advisories
will likely be needed.

Seas will remain small and wind wave dominated through the
period. Some higher seas around 6 to 7 feet will develop this
weekend as persistent north flow leads to fresh short period
swell. Pyle/mh

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for winds from midnight tonight to 8 AM
     PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to
     Florence OR out 60 nm.

&&

$$

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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 230327
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
827 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016

.UPDATE...A few showers/sprinkles just across the Cascade crest
this evening.  Some of these may make it into northern Yakima and
parts of Kittitas County.  Otherwise fairly quiet tonight.  As far
as the forecast goes, a few minor adjustments to the grids this
evening. With cloud cover over the area tonight have pulled up Min
T`s a degree or two, but have also pulled back on Max T`s tomorrow
as it appears that the next system may move in with the modified
airmass a little quicker. Overall will still be a warm day tomorrow.
The coolest air will be in place Friday and Friday night. Will need
to keep an eye on the central Oregon area Friday night as the
current forecast has Min T`s in the mid 30s.  Therefore it`s
possible some localized areas could approach freezing.  Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...An upper low drifting south-
southeast along the British Columbia coast will reach the Washington
coast by Thursday afternoon. As such, will see increasing mid and
high level cloudiness across the region tonight into Thursday
morning. Will also see some showers gradually develop and increase
over portions of the Washington Cascade east slopes this evening.
These showers will eventually work south into the Oregon Cascade
east slopes overnight. Shower coverages will increase over Cascade
east slopes Thursday. Meanwhile a few showers will work into the
Kittitas and Yakima valleys, the Columbia River Gorge and North-
Central Oregon as the day progresses. There could be enough
instability for stray thunderstorms over the Washington Cascade east
slopes Thursday afternoon. At this time will not mention as expect a
westerly flow to undercut the instability and inhibit their
development. The upper low will move onshore Thursday night and
swing east across the region Friday. Thus varying coverages of
showers will spread across the remainder of the region Thursday
evening, continuing into Friday afternoon. Stray thunderstorms may
be possible from the Blue Mountains east to Wallowa county late
Friday morning into mid Friday afternoon. Winds will become breezy
to locally windy on Friday as well. High temps Friday will be much
cooler, running from the 50s in the mountains to the 70s at the
lowest elevations. The upper low will rapidly move east away from the
PACNW Friday night with an upper ridge expected to build overhead by
Saturday. Thus will see the showers end Friday evening with dry
conditions expected Saturday. High temps Saturday will warm 10 to 14
degrees over Friday. 90

LONG TERM...Saturday night through Wednesday...A flat ridge of high
pressure will be over the region through the long term providing hot
and dry weather. Models are indicating some weak instability at
times through the extended but moisture is limited so just expecting
some flat cumulus buildups.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR conditions will prevail through 00Z
Thursday. High clouds will increase overnight the gradually lower to
mid clouds Thursday with CIGS down to about 10,000 feet AGL by the
end of the forecast period. Winds will be mostly 10kt or less but
WNW at 10-15kt and gusty at KDLS this afternoon and evening.
Thursday winds will be westerly 10-20 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  78  55  71 /   0  10  30  20
ALW  61  79  56  71 /   0  10  30  30
PSC  60  82  58  76 /   0  10  20  20
YKM  56  78  51  75 /  10  20  20  10
HRI  58  81  58  76 /   0  10  20  20
ELN  55  73  54  68 /  10  30  20  20
RDM  46  73  41  69 /  10  10  20  10
LGD  51  75  49  64 /   0  10  30  30
GCD  49  77  47  69 /   0  10  20  30
DLS  59  73  55  72 /  10  30  30  20

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

89/91/91




000
FXUS66 KMFR 230316
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
816 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...A cold front is due to bring cooler conditions to
the forecast area tomorrow, with temperatures about 5 to 10
degrees lower than today. Gusty northwest to west winds are
expected as well tomorrow afternoon, especially east of the
Cascades. Latest high-resolution, hourly-updated model output
shows rain arriving at the coast early Thursday morning and
reaching the Umpqua Basin by late Thursday morning. We can`t rule
out the chance for a shower in the Rogue Valley late Thursday
afternoon or evening, given that the NAM12 and WRF-NMM both show
rain in or around the valley. Models do suggest that the East Side
will remain dry.

Latest NAM12 output for precipitation amounts depict around one to
two-tenths of an inch of rain at the coast and just inland, with
less than a tenth over the Cascades and Siskiyous.

After a few days with below normal temperatures, a warming trend
will begin on Saturday. Please see the previous discussion below
for more details on this.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 23/00Z TAF cycle...VFR conditions will continue
through this evening. MVFR ceilings are expected to move into the
coast this evening. A cold front will approach the coast late
tonight which could push ceilings further down to IFR there along
with some light rain by 10Z Thursday. Lower clouds and ceilings that
may partially obscure terrain will move inland north of the Umpqua
Divide towards daybreak Thursday. -Sven

&&

.MARINE...Updated 500 PM PDT Wed 22 June 2016...A thermal trough
will weaken with north winds and steep seas easing by this evening.
Winds will shift to the southwest...but remain relatively light
Wednesday night...then a weak front will move onshore Thursday. The
thermal trough will redevelop along the coast Friday into the
weekend...bringing a return of strong north winds and choppy seas.
-Sven

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 213 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016/

SHORT TERM...Few changes to the forecast were needed today. An
upper level low centered near the Queen Charlotte Islands this
afternoon will move in over the Pacific Northwest over the next
couple of days and bring much cooler, occasionally breezy, and in
some places, showery weather.

A cold front stretches from the low south roughly along 130W to
around our latitude then off to the southwest. This front will
move into the coast tomorrow morning and then inland through the
day. The models generally indicate a good chance of measurable
rain along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin and then rapidly
decreasing chances for rain further south and east. We can`t rule
out a shower around Medford, but the odds are against anything
significant. This is pretty typical of systems coming from the
northwest - they usually don`t have all that much moisture. Breezy
southwest to west winds will accompany the front through the area
tomorrow, especially east of the Cascades. Models are showing
little in the way of instability, so lightning is not expected.

The main upper low moves across our area Thursday night and
Friday. With the upper cold pool passing at the coolest time of
day, there isn`t a lot of instability, so it probably won`t
produce much shower activity much less thunderstorms. It will
likely just be a largely dry trough passage with another bit of
wind in the afternoon, especially on the east side.

The trough moves east quickly Friday night. By Saturday, a
thermal trough redevelops along the coast, and things start to
dry out and heat up again. -Wright

LONG TERM...June 26th (Sunday)- June 30th (Thursday) The models
remain in pretty good agreement in the extended with a few minor
differences in details. All point to a continued dry and warm
conditions with no threat of precipitation. Max temperatures will
heat up, but were not expecting anything of significance with
readings averaging 10-15 degrees above normal. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...None.

$$

NSK/TRW/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 230316
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
816 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...A cold front is due to bring cooler conditions to
the forecast area tomorrow, with temperatures about 5 to 10
degrees lower than today. Gusty northwest to west winds are
expected as well tomorrow afternoon, especially east of the
Cascades. Latest high-resolution, hourly-updated model output
shows rain arriving at the coast early Thursday morning and
reaching the Umpqua Basin by late Thursday morning. We can`t rule
out the chance for a shower in the Rogue Valley late Thursday
afternoon or evening, given that the NAM12 and WRF-NMM both show
rain in or around the valley. Models do suggest that the East Side
will remain dry.

Latest NAM12 output for precipitation amounts depict around one to
two-tenths of an inch of rain at the coast and just inland, with
less than a tenth over the Cascades and Siskiyous.

After a few days with below normal temperatures, a warming trend
will begin on Saturday. Please see the previous discussion below
for more details on this.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 23/00Z TAF cycle...VFR conditions will continue
through this evening. MVFR ceilings are expected to move into the
coast this evening. A cold front will approach the coast late
tonight which could push ceilings further down to IFR there along
with some light rain by 10Z Thursday. Lower clouds and ceilings that
may partially obscure terrain will move inland north of the Umpqua
Divide towards daybreak Thursday. -Sven

&&

.MARINE...Updated 500 PM PDT Wed 22 June 2016...A thermal trough
will weaken with north winds and steep seas easing by this evening.
Winds will shift to the southwest...but remain relatively light
Wednesday night...then a weak front will move onshore Thursday. The
thermal trough will redevelop along the coast Friday into the
weekend...bringing a return of strong north winds and choppy seas.
-Sven

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 213 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2016/

SHORT TERM...Few changes to the forecast were needed today. An
upper level low centered near the Queen Charlotte Islands this
afternoon will move in over the Pacific Northwest over the next
couple of days and bring much cooler, occasionally breezy, and in
some places, showery weather.

A cold front stretches from the low south roughly along 130W to
around our latitude then off to the southwest. This front will
move into the coast tomorrow morning and then inland through the
day. The models generally indicate a good chance of measurable
rain along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin and then rapidly
decreasing chances for rain further south and east. We can`t rule
out a shower around Medford, but the odds are against anything
significant. This is pretty typical of systems coming from the
northwest - they usually don`t have all that much moisture. Breezy
southwest to west winds will accompany the front through the area
tomorrow, especially east of the Cascades. Models are showing
little in the way of instability, so lightning is not expected.

The main upper low moves across our area Thursday night and
Friday. With the upper cold pool passing at the coolest time of
day, there isn`t a lot of instability, so it probably won`t
produce much shower activity much less thunderstorms. It will
likely just be a largely dry trough passage with another bit of
wind in the afternoon, especially on the east side.

The trough moves east quickly Friday night. By Saturday, a
thermal trough redevelops along the coast, and things start to
dry out and heat up again. -Wright

LONG TERM...June 26th (Sunday)- June 30th (Thursday) The models
remain in pretty good agreement in the extended with a few minor
differences in details. All point to a continued dry and warm
conditions with no threat of precipitation. Max temperatures will
heat up, but were not expecting anything of significance with
readings averaging 10-15 degrees above normal. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...None.

$$

NSK/TRW/SBN




000
FXUS65 KBOI 230254
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
854 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...Dry southwest flow continues this evening as an
upper low, currently off the coast of British Columbia, moves south
along the Pacific coast. This low will eventually move inland to
our north. A frontal passage is still expected for Thursday
night/Friday morning, bringing cooler temperatures on Friday and
some showers in the extreme Northern portions of the CWA. Current
forecast looks good and no updates will be needed this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR mostly clear skies tonight. Increasing mid to
upper level clouds early Thursday morning ahead of the next upper
level trough for Thursday night. Surface winds 5-10kts and variable.
Winds aloft to 10k feet MSL southwest 15-25kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...A closed upper low was
centered off the coast of western Canada this afternoon. This puts
us in dry southwest flow aloft. The upper low will move southeast
to off the coast of Washington by Thursday afternoon, then turn
east and end up over northern Idaho Friday afternoon. As this
happens, the system will push a cold front through the region
Thursday night. This will bring significantly cooler air, and
result in highs in the lower to mid 70s in the lower elevations
Friday. It will also bring showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms, mainly to the higher elevations north of Ontario,
and mainly Friday morning into Friday afternoon. In the meantime,
Thursday`s highs will be close to those of today, dropping only a
degree or two as heights aloft lower. Winds will be pretty typical
until the front moves through Thursday night. Afterward, and
especially Friday afternoon, west to northwest winds will average
15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday...The upper trough
continues to push further east Friday night into Saturday. A
slight chance of precipitation remains Friday night, mostly in
northern portions of the West Central Mountains. By Saturday
things dry out and will remain dry through the extended period.
Temperatures on Saturday sit about 5 degrees below normal, but by
Sunday are 5 degrees above normal. This warming trend continues
through the extended with Wednesday highs expected to be about 10
degrees above normal.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JC/DD




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