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000
FXUS66 KPDT 291731 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1031 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL
BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
BECOMING BREEZY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND KITTITAS VALLEY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND
BLUES. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. 94


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CURRENTLY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CIRRUS ABOVE 20000 FEET AGL
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ABOVE 7000 FEET AGL WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE INCREASING AND WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 15
KTS AROUND 05Z-07Z THIS EVENING AND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER 16Z TOMORROW MORNING. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 430 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
CAUSING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. THEREFORE WILL RECOMMEND TO FIRE WEATHER
SHIFT TO ONLY INCLUDE A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME COOLER TODAY THAN ON THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE FOR THE
MOST PART. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE SOME MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER THE CASCADE
CREST ONTO THE EAST SLOPES. DOWN SLOPE WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES WILL CAUSE QUICK DRYING OF THIS AIR SO AM NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TOO FAR EASTWARD AND MAINLY JUST OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA
THE NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS WILL CREATE
UPSLOPE WIND CONDITIONS AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THERE AS WELL
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BORDER. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN FURTHER COOLING AND A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE WINDS WILL NO LONGER FAVOR
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY
AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST SO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYMORE SHOWERS STARTING SATURDAY. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY. 88

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE
FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA CHANGING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO WEST TUESDAY THEN
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH BUT THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  84  54  73  51 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  86  57  75  54 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  88  56  79  53 /   0  10  10  10
YKM  81  52  74  51 /   0  10  10  10
HRI  87  56  77  53 /   0  10  10  10
ELN  77  51  69  50 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  83  48  70  42 /   0  10  10  10
LGD  84  51  69  45 /  10  20  10  10
GCD  86  48  70  43 /  10  20  10  10
DLS  80  55  74  55 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 291731 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1031 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL
BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
BECOMING BREEZY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND KITTITAS VALLEY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND
BLUES. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. 94


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CURRENTLY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CIRRUS ABOVE 20000 FEET AGL
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ABOVE 7000 FEET AGL WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE INCREASING AND WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 15
KTS AROUND 05Z-07Z THIS EVENING AND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER 16Z TOMORROW MORNING. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 430 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
CAUSING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. THEREFORE WILL RECOMMEND TO FIRE WEATHER
SHIFT TO ONLY INCLUDE A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME COOLER TODAY THAN ON THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE FOR THE
MOST PART. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE SOME MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER THE CASCADE
CREST ONTO THE EAST SLOPES. DOWN SLOPE WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES WILL CAUSE QUICK DRYING OF THIS AIR SO AM NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TOO FAR EASTWARD AND MAINLY JUST OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA
THE NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS WILL CREATE
UPSLOPE WIND CONDITIONS AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THERE AS WELL
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BORDER. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN FURTHER COOLING AND A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE WINDS WILL NO LONGER FAVOR
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY
AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST SO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYMORE SHOWERS STARTING SATURDAY. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY. 88

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE
FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA CHANGING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO WEST TUESDAY THEN
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH BUT THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  84  54  73  51 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  86  57  75  54 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  88  56  79  53 /   0  10  10  10
YKM  81  52  74  51 /   0  10  10  10
HRI  87  56  77  53 /   0  10  10  10
ELN  77  51  69  50 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  83  48  70  42 /   0  10  10  10
LGD  84  51  69  45 /  10  20  10  10
GCD  86  48  70  43 /  10  20  10  10
DLS  80  55  74  55 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 291731 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1031 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL
BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
BECOMING BREEZY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND KITTITAS VALLEY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND
BLUES. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. 94


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CURRENTLY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CIRRUS ABOVE 20000 FEET AGL
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ABOVE 7000 FEET AGL WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE INCREASING AND WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 15
KTS AROUND 05Z-07Z THIS EVENING AND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER 16Z TOMORROW MORNING. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 430 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
CAUSING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. THEREFORE WILL RECOMMEND TO FIRE WEATHER
SHIFT TO ONLY INCLUDE A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME COOLER TODAY THAN ON THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE FOR THE
MOST PART. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE SOME MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER THE CASCADE
CREST ONTO THE EAST SLOPES. DOWN SLOPE WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES WILL CAUSE QUICK DRYING OF THIS AIR SO AM NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TOO FAR EASTWARD AND MAINLY JUST OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA
THE NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS WILL CREATE
UPSLOPE WIND CONDITIONS AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THERE AS WELL
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BORDER. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN FURTHER COOLING AND A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE WINDS WILL NO LONGER FAVOR
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY
AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST SO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYMORE SHOWERS STARTING SATURDAY. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY. 88

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE
FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA CHANGING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO WEST TUESDAY THEN
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH BUT THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  84  54  73  51 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  86  57  75  54 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  88  56  79  53 /   0  10  10  10
YKM  81  52  74  51 /   0  10  10  10
HRI  87  56  77  53 /   0  10  10  10
ELN  77  51  69  50 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  83  48  70  42 /   0  10  10  10
LGD  84  51  69  45 /  10  20  10  10
GCD  86  48  70  43 /  10  20  10  10
DLS  80  55  74  55 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 291731 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1031 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL
BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
BECOMING BREEZY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND KITTITAS VALLEY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND
BLUES. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. 94


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CURRENTLY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CIRRUS ABOVE 20000 FEET AGL
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ABOVE 7000 FEET AGL WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE INCREASING AND WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 15
KTS AROUND 05Z-07Z THIS EVENING AND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER 16Z TOMORROW MORNING. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 430 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
CAUSING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. THEREFORE WILL RECOMMEND TO FIRE WEATHER
SHIFT TO ONLY INCLUDE A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME COOLER TODAY THAN ON THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE FOR THE
MOST PART. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE SOME MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER THE CASCADE
CREST ONTO THE EAST SLOPES. DOWN SLOPE WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES WILL CAUSE QUICK DRYING OF THIS AIR SO AM NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TOO FAR EASTWARD AND MAINLY JUST OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA
THE NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS WILL CREATE
UPSLOPE WIND CONDITIONS AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THERE AS WELL
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BORDER. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN FURTHER COOLING AND A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE WINDS WILL NO LONGER FAVOR
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY
AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST SO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYMORE SHOWERS STARTING SATURDAY. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY. 88

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE
FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA CHANGING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO WEST TUESDAY THEN
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH BUT THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  84  54  73  51 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  86  57  75  54 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  88  56  79  53 /   0  10  10  10
YKM  81  52  74  51 /   0  10  10  10
HRI  87  56  77  53 /   0  10  10  10
ELN  77  51  69  50 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  83  48  70  42 /   0  10  10  10
LGD  84  51  69  45 /  10  20  10  10
GCD  86  48  70  43 /  10  20  10  10
DLS  80  55  74  55 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/83






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 291654
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
954 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON SO
PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO N OREGON COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON COAST. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING TOWARD MOSTLY THE SW WASHINGTON COAST. 15Z HRRR INDICATES A
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ONTO THE COAST AND AFFECTING AS FAR SOUTH
AS TILLAMOOK COUNTY BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ANY PRECIP LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
SO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINS PARTICULARLY ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADES...WITH MOISTURE FAVORING NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTH WASHINGTON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CONTINUED COOLER
TEMPERATURES. BOWEN/26

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE FRONT WAS SEEN ON RADAR NEAR KHQM AT 930
AM WITH SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT.
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING
WITH IFR AND LIFR ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
INLAND. EXPECT THE LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ALONG THE N
OREGON COAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND LIFTS THE MARINE
INVERSION AFTER 18Z BECOMING MVFR. THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST.
INLAND...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY FROM NORTH OF KAUO 19Z-22Z.
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK OUT SOME AND LIFT AFT 20-21Z. MARINE LAYER
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS 015 TO 020 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
20Z THEN LIFT SOME AND BECOME VFR AFTER 21-22Z. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOME
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD TODAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AND THEN SHIFT MORE
WESTERLY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL MORE WEAK FRONTS WILL PASS OVER THE
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW
SWELL AT AROUND 15 SECONDS AND A NORTHWEST FRESH SWELL FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA AROUND 9 SECONDS. LIGHT WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 291654
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
954 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON SO
PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO N OREGON COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON COAST. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING TOWARD MOSTLY THE SW WASHINGTON COAST. 15Z HRRR INDICATES A
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ONTO THE COAST AND AFFECTING AS FAR SOUTH
AS TILLAMOOK COUNTY BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ANY PRECIP LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
SO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINS PARTICULARLY ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADES...WITH MOISTURE FAVORING NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTH WASHINGTON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CONTINUED COOLER
TEMPERATURES. BOWEN/26

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE FRONT WAS SEEN ON RADAR NEAR KHQM AT 930
AM WITH SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT.
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING
WITH IFR AND LIFR ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
INLAND. EXPECT THE LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ALONG THE N
OREGON COAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND LIFTS THE MARINE
INVERSION AFTER 18Z BECOMING MVFR. THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST.
INLAND...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY FROM NORTH OF KAUO 19Z-22Z.
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK OUT SOME AND LIFT AFT 20-21Z. MARINE LAYER
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS 015 TO 020 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
20Z THEN LIFT SOME AND BECOME VFR AFTER 21-22Z. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOME
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD TODAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AND THEN SHIFT MORE
WESTERLY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL MORE WEAK FRONTS WILL PASS OVER THE
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW
SWELL AT AROUND 15 SECONDS AND A NORTHWEST FRESH SWELL FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA AROUND 9 SECONDS. LIGHT WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 291654
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
954 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON SO
PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO N OREGON COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON COAST. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING TOWARD MOSTLY THE SW WASHINGTON COAST. 15Z HRRR INDICATES A
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ONTO THE COAST AND AFFECTING AS FAR SOUTH
AS TILLAMOOK COUNTY BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ANY PRECIP LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
SO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINS PARTICULARLY ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADES...WITH MOISTURE FAVORING NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTH WASHINGTON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CONTINUED COOLER
TEMPERATURES. BOWEN/26

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE FRONT WAS SEEN ON RADAR NEAR KHQM AT 930
AM WITH SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT.
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING
WITH IFR AND LIFR ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
INLAND. EXPECT THE LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ALONG THE N
OREGON COAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND LIFTS THE MARINE
INVERSION AFTER 18Z BECOMING MVFR. THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST.
INLAND...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY FROM NORTH OF KAUO 19Z-22Z.
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK OUT SOME AND LIFT AFT 20-21Z. MARINE LAYER
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SCHNEIDER

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS 015 TO 020 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
20Z THEN LIFT SOME AND BECOME VFR AFTER 21-22Z. SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOME
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD TODAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AND THEN SHIFT MORE
WESTERLY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL MORE WEAK FRONTS WILL PASS OVER THE
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW
SWELL AT AROUND 15 SECONDS AND A NORTHWEST FRESH SWELL FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA AROUND 9 SECONDS. LIGHT WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 291631
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
931 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE ONLY UPDATE MADE THIS MORNING WAS TO A FEW SKY GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL
VALLEYS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THIS
CHANGE THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT
UPDATE ANYTHING ELSE. THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS
SMOKE FROM THE JULY COMPLEX WILDFIRES AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF JACKSON COUNTY, THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF KLAMATH COUNTY,
AND ALMOST ALL OF LAKE COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO SOME HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS ABOVE THE SMOKE AND SOME OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS FROM POST
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ARE FILTERING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
WINDS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MND

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...29/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON. THERE IS ALSO A LOT
OF SMOKE COMING OFF THE WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY FIRES. OTHER THAN
THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.

SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST ONE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY. IT WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ONSHORE AHEAD OF IT. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL BE
DRY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE CASCADES EAST WITH SPEEDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. THE WEST SIDE WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE EAST SIDE. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...BUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CRANK UP THE DEPTH
OF THE MARINE LAYER...SO EXPECT MORE INLAND PENETRATION OF STRATUS
IN THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY. EXPECT A REPLAY OF THE
FRIDAY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ALSO MAY BE
SOME DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO FILL UP
THE UMPQUA BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT LIKELY WON`T BE THICK
ENOUGH TO SPILL OVER INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY. INLAND TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES TO VALUES ANYWHERE FROM JUST BELOW
TO NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE MEDFORD CWA WILL
REMAIN UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER DEPTH WILL DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS SATURDAY...BUT
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN MORE
STRONGLY.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FAR OFFSHORE FROM
CALIFORNIA ON THE WEEKEND WILL BUILD EAST TO THE COAST ON LABOR
DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
A MARINE PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO
SUNDAY NIGHT THAT IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
INLAND TUESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE
NOTICEABLY AFTER TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER, FASTER,
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT MID-WEEK. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE CONTINUED VERY WARM AND
DRY FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
IN COOS COUNTY WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DEEP PENETRATION
INLAND. SHORT TERM MODELS BRING LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS INTO THE
UMPQUA BASIN AROUND SUNRISE TODAY AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. IFR
CIGS EXTEND ALONG THE COAST DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY AND WILL
BE SLOW TO BURN OFF SUCH THAT WE MAY NOT SEE VFR AT ALL AT THE COAST
TODAY. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF
WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
THE PLUME FROM THOSE FIRES WILL ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF HAZE AND MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CIGS DOWNWIND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE REST OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE KLAMATH BASIN, WHERE OCCASIONAL
MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE AT KLMT. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT FRI 29 AUG 2014...VERY SHORT PERIOD
SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN PART OF THE MARINE ZONE THIS MORNING. CHOPPY
SEAS WILL EXPAND CLOSER TO THE COAST AND COME WITHIN MARINE ZONE 356
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

MND/BPN/MND






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 291544
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
944 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
HOW FAR WEST AND HOW EARLY CONVECTION INITIATES WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON THE SMOKE LAYER WHICH IS ACROSS MUCH OF SE OREGON AND
SW IDAHO THIS MORNING. 12Z BOI SOUNDING SHOWED AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE /PW OF 0.74 INCHES/ FROM YESTERDAYS SHORTWAVE.
ALSO...EVIDENT ON THE SOUNDING IS A STABLE LAYER AROUND 500 MB
WHICH MAY PROVE DIFFICULT TO BREAK UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. THICK SMOKE PLUME FROM FIRES IN W/SW OREGON IS EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BASICALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-ONTARIO-LOWMAN
LINE WITH MORE SMOKE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING POTENTIAL TODAY AND THUS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF THAT FROM YESTERDAY AS CU FAILED
TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SW IDAHO WHERE THE SMOKE PLUME WAS
LOCATED. THUS...THINK CONVECTION WILL INITIATE LATER THAN NORMAL
ACROSS THE AREA PROBABLY JUST A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OR TO AREAS OUTSIDE THE SMOKE PLUME. THE FRONTAL TIMING
REMAINS ALMOST UNCHANGED REACHING BAKER CITY/BURNS AROUND
02Z...BOISE AROUND 06Z AND TWIN FALLS/JEROME AROUND 11Z.
IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LATER THIS EVENING...AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UPDATED POP/WX FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. MOSTLY CLEAR THEN INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AFTER 18Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS...EXCEPT GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE FROM
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE`S SW TO 40N 140W IS WITH A COLD FRONT DUE IN
TONIGHT. FRONT IS NEARING NW WA AT 3 AM. SCATTERED TO THIN BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE WILL EXPAND OVER THE
AREA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE WAS NEAR THE NV BORDER AND
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. PREFRONTAL LIFT
AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA /BOISE
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TWIN FALLS BY 6 AM/ THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND CALIBRATED SPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTED
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS /WHICH WERE ADDED/ SO THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS PACKAGE. COOLER AND LOCALLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN
WEST COAST.  THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AXIS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES COOLING TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 291544
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
944 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
HOW FAR WEST AND HOW EARLY CONVECTION INITIATES WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON THE SMOKE LAYER WHICH IS ACROSS MUCH OF SE OREGON AND
SW IDAHO THIS MORNING. 12Z BOI SOUNDING SHOWED AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE /PW OF 0.74 INCHES/ FROM YESTERDAYS SHORTWAVE.
ALSO...EVIDENT ON THE SOUNDING IS A STABLE LAYER AROUND 500 MB
WHICH MAY PROVE DIFFICULT TO BREAK UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. THICK SMOKE PLUME FROM FIRES IN W/SW OREGON IS EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BASICALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-ONTARIO-LOWMAN
LINE WITH MORE SMOKE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING POTENTIAL TODAY AND THUS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF THAT FROM YESTERDAY AS CU FAILED
TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SW IDAHO WHERE THE SMOKE PLUME WAS
LOCATED. THUS...THINK CONVECTION WILL INITIATE LATER THAN NORMAL
ACROSS THE AREA PROBABLY JUST A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OR TO AREAS OUTSIDE THE SMOKE PLUME. THE FRONTAL TIMING
REMAINS ALMOST UNCHANGED REACHING BAKER CITY/BURNS AROUND
02Z...BOISE AROUND 06Z AND TWIN FALLS/JEROME AROUND 11Z.
IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LATER THIS EVENING...AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UPDATED POP/WX FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. MOSTLY CLEAR THEN INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AFTER 18Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS...EXCEPT GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE FROM
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE`S SW TO 40N 140W IS WITH A COLD FRONT DUE IN
TONIGHT. FRONT IS NEARING NW WA AT 3 AM. SCATTERED TO THIN BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE WILL EXPAND OVER THE
AREA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE WAS NEAR THE NV BORDER AND
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. PREFRONTAL LIFT
AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA /BOISE
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TWIN FALLS BY 6 AM/ THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND CALIBRATED SPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTED
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS /WHICH WERE ADDED/ SO THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS PACKAGE. COOLER AND LOCALLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN
WEST COAST.  THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AXIS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES COOLING TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS66 KPDT 291531
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
833 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL
BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
BECOMING BREEZY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND KITTITAS VALLEY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND
BLUES. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 430 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
CAUSING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. THEREFORE WILL RECOMMEND TO FIRE WEATHER
SHIFT TO ONLY INCLUDE A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME COOLER TODAY THAN ON THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE FOR THE
MOST PART. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE SOME MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER THE CASCADE
CREST ONTO THE EAST SLOPES. DOWN SLOPE WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES WILL CAUSE QUICK DRYING OF THIS AIR SO AM NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TOO FAR EASTWARD AND MAINLY JUST OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA
THE NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS WILL CREATE
UPSLOPE WIND CONDITIONS AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THERE AS WELL
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BORDER. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN FURTHER COOLING AND A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE WINDS WILL NO LONGER FAVOR
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY
AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST SO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYMORE SHOWERS STARTING SATURDAY. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY. 88

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE
FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA CHANGING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO WEST TUESDAY THEN
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH BUT THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST.  COONFIELD

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH INCREASING CIRRUS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30 KTS.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  84  54  73  51 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  86  57  75  54 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  88  56  79  53 /   0  10  10  10
YKM  81  52  74  51 /   0  10  10  10
HRI  87  56  77  53 /   0  10  10  10
ELN  77  51  69  50 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  83  48  70  42 /   0  10  10  10
LGD  84  51  69  45 /  10  20  10  10
GCD  86  48  70  43 /  10  20  10  10
DLS  80  55  74  55 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94





000
FXUS66 KPDT 291531
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
833 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL
BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
BECOMING BREEZY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND KITTITAS VALLEY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND
BLUES. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 430 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
CAUSING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. THEREFORE WILL RECOMMEND TO FIRE WEATHER
SHIFT TO ONLY INCLUDE A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME COOLER TODAY THAN ON THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE FOR THE
MOST PART. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE SOME MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER THE CASCADE
CREST ONTO THE EAST SLOPES. DOWN SLOPE WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES WILL CAUSE QUICK DRYING OF THIS AIR SO AM NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TOO FAR EASTWARD AND MAINLY JUST OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA
THE NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS WILL CREATE
UPSLOPE WIND CONDITIONS AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THERE AS WELL
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BORDER. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN FURTHER COOLING AND A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE WINDS WILL NO LONGER FAVOR
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY
AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST SO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYMORE SHOWERS STARTING SATURDAY. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY. 88

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE
FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA CHANGING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO WEST TUESDAY THEN
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH BUT THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST.  COONFIELD

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH INCREASING CIRRUS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30 KTS.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  84  54  73  51 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  86  57  75  54 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  88  56  79  53 /   0  10  10  10
YKM  81  52  74  51 /   0  10  10  10
HRI  87  56  77  53 /   0  10  10  10
ELN  77  51  69  50 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  83  48  70  42 /   0  10  10  10
LGD  84  51  69  45 /  10  20  10  10
GCD  86  48  70  43 /  10  20  10  10
DLS  80  55  74  55 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94






000
FXUS66 KPDT 291130 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
430 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
CAUSING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. THEREFORE WILL RECOMMEND TO FIRE WEATHER
SHIFT TO ONLY INCLUDE A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME COOLER TODAY THAN ON THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE FOR THE
MOST PART. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE SOME MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER THE CASCADE
CREST ONTO THE EAST SLOPES. DOWN SLOPE WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES WILL CAUSE QUICK DRYING OF THIS AIR SO AM NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TOO FAR EASTWARD AND MAINLY JUST OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA
THE NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS WILL CREATE
UPSLOPE WIND CONDITIONS AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THERE AS WELL
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BORDER. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN FURTHER COOLING AND A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE WINDS WILL NO LONGER FAVOR
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY
AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST SO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYMORE SHOWERS STARTING SATURDAY. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE
FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA CHANGING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO WEST TUESDAY THEN
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH BUT THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH INCREASING CIRRUS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30 KTS.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  54  73  51 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  84  58  75  54 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  86  57  79  53 /   0  10  10  10
YKM  79  53  74  51 /   0  10  10  10
HRI  85  56  77  53 /   0  10  10  10
ELN  75  52  69  50 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  80  48  70  42 /   0  10  10  10
LGD  82  52  69  45 /  10  20  10  10
GCD  83  49  70  43 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  78  56  74  55 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76







000
FXUS66 KPDT 291130 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
430 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
CAUSING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. THEREFORE WILL RECOMMEND TO FIRE WEATHER
SHIFT TO ONLY INCLUDE A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME COOLER TODAY THAN ON THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE FOR THE
MOST PART. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE SOME MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER THE CASCADE
CREST ONTO THE EAST SLOPES. DOWN SLOPE WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES WILL CAUSE QUICK DRYING OF THIS AIR SO AM NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TOO FAR EASTWARD AND MAINLY JUST OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA
THE NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS WILL CREATE
UPSLOPE WIND CONDITIONS AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THERE AS WELL
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BORDER. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN FURTHER COOLING AND A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE WINDS WILL NO LONGER FAVOR
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY
AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST SO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYMORE SHOWERS STARTING SATURDAY. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE
FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA CHANGING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO WEST TUESDAY THEN
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH BUT THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH INCREASING CIRRUS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30 KTS.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  54  73  51 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  84  58  75  54 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  86  57  79  53 /   0  10  10  10
YKM  79  53  74  51 /   0  10  10  10
HRI  85  56  77  53 /   0  10  10  10
ELN  75  52  69  50 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  80  48  70  42 /   0  10  10  10
LGD  82  52  69  45 /  10  20  10  10
GCD  83  49  70  43 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  78  56  74  55 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76







000
FXUS66 KPDT 291130 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
430 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
CAUSING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. THEREFORE WILL RECOMMEND TO FIRE WEATHER
SHIFT TO ONLY INCLUDE A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME COOLER TODAY THAN ON THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE FOR THE
MOST PART. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE SOME MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER THE CASCADE
CREST ONTO THE EAST SLOPES. DOWN SLOPE WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES WILL CAUSE QUICK DRYING OF THIS AIR SO AM NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TOO FAR EASTWARD AND MAINLY JUST OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA
THE NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS WILL CREATE
UPSLOPE WIND CONDITIONS AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THERE AS WELL
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BORDER. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN FURTHER COOLING AND A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE WINDS WILL NO LONGER FAVOR
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY
AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST SO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYMORE SHOWERS STARTING SATURDAY. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE
FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA CHANGING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO WEST TUESDAY THEN
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH BUT THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH INCREASING CIRRUS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30 KTS.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  54  73  51 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  84  58  75  54 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  86  57  79  53 /   0  10  10  10
YKM  79  53  74  51 /   0  10  10  10
HRI  85  56  77  53 /   0  10  10  10
ELN  75  52  69  50 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  80  48  70  42 /   0  10  10  10
LGD  82  52  69  45 /  10  20  10  10
GCD  83  49  70  43 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  78  56  74  55 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76







000
FXUS66 KPDT 291130 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
430 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
CAUSING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. THEREFORE WILL RECOMMEND TO FIRE WEATHER
SHIFT TO ONLY INCLUDE A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME COOLER TODAY THAN ON THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE FOR THE
MOST PART. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE SOME MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER THE CASCADE
CREST ONTO THE EAST SLOPES. DOWN SLOPE WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES WILL CAUSE QUICK DRYING OF THIS AIR SO AM NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TOO FAR EASTWARD AND MAINLY JUST OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA
THE NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS WILL CREATE
UPSLOPE WIND CONDITIONS AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THERE AS WELL
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BORDER. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN FURTHER COOLING AND A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE WINDS WILL NO LONGER FAVOR
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY
AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST SO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYMORE SHOWERS STARTING SATURDAY. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE
FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA CHANGING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO WEST TUESDAY THEN
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH BUT THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH INCREASING CIRRUS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 18Z WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30 KTS.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  54  73  51 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  84  58  75  54 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  86  57  79  53 /   0  10  10  10
YKM  79  53  74  51 /   0  10  10  10
HRI  85  56  77  53 /   0  10  10  10
ELN  75  52  69  50 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  80  48  70  42 /   0  10  10  10
LGD  82  52  69  45 /  10  20  10  10
GCD  83  49  70  43 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  78  56  74  55 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76







000
FXUS66 KPQR 291051
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS MOVING EAST TO SE AK/WESTERN B.C.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NEAR SE ALASKA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
OFF THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY AT THE COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON INTERIOR ZONES. LOWER MARINE CLOUDS WILL FILL MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER LAYERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. NO CHANGE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WITH LOW POPS FOR THE
SW WA ZONES.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL
IN MOST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE BRUSH BY THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE NORTH
OF KSLE. AREAS SOUTH OF KSLE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY KEEP
SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND IN NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST AFT 21Z. STRATUS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN INLAND TONIGHT...AS WILL IFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF STRATUS
JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AM CONFIDENT IN MVFR CIGS
FOR THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING...BY 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT
20Z...BUT ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 5 KFT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NE
WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 22Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK
AROUND 7 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
WATERS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 291051
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS MOVING EAST TO SE AK/WESTERN B.C.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NEAR SE ALASKA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
OFF THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY AT THE COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON INTERIOR ZONES. LOWER MARINE CLOUDS WILL FILL MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER LAYERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. NO CHANGE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WITH LOW POPS FOR THE
SW WA ZONES.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL
IN MOST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE BRUSH BY THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE NORTH
OF KSLE. AREAS SOUTH OF KSLE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY KEEP
SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND IN NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST AFT 21Z. STRATUS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN INLAND TONIGHT...AS WILL IFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF STRATUS
JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AM CONFIDENT IN MVFR CIGS
FOR THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING...BY 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT
20Z...BUT ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 5 KFT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NE
WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 22Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK
AROUND 7 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
WATERS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 291051
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS MOVING EAST TO SE AK/WESTERN B.C.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NEAR SE ALASKA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
OFF THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY AT THE COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON INTERIOR ZONES. LOWER MARINE CLOUDS WILL FILL MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER LAYERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. NO CHANGE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WITH LOW POPS FOR THE
SW WA ZONES.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL
IN MOST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE BRUSH BY THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE NORTH
OF KSLE. AREAS SOUTH OF KSLE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY KEEP
SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND IN NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST AFT 21Z. STRATUS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN INLAND TONIGHT...AS WILL IFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF STRATUS
JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AM CONFIDENT IN MVFR CIGS
FOR THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING...BY 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT
20Z...BUT ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 5 KFT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NE
WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 22Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK
AROUND 7 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
WATERS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 291051
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS MOVING EAST TO SE AK/WESTERN B.C.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NEAR SE ALASKA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
OFF THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY AT THE COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON INTERIOR ZONES. LOWER MARINE CLOUDS WILL FILL MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER LAYERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. NO CHANGE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WITH LOW POPS FOR THE
SW WA ZONES.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL
IN MOST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE BRUSH BY THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE NORTH
OF KSLE. AREAS SOUTH OF KSLE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY KEEP
SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND IN NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST AFT 21Z. STRATUS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN INLAND TONIGHT...AS WILL IFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF STRATUS
JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AM CONFIDENT IN MVFR CIGS
FOR THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING...BY 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT
20Z...BUT ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 5 KFT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NE
WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 22Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK
AROUND 7 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
WATERS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 291051
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
334 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS MOVING EAST TO SE AK/WESTERN B.C.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NEAR SE ALASKA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
OFF THE WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST NEAR 130W. THE SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARS OFF AND MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY AT THE COAST AND SW
WASHINGTON INTERIOR ZONES. LOWER MARINE CLOUDS WILL FILL MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR LOW LANDS DURING THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER LAYERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON FOR A LITTLE MORE COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES. NO CHANGE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WITH LOW POPS FOR THE
SW WA ZONES.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUN
NIGHT AND MON.SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...BUT 850MB AND 700MB ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25
INCH WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER
ON IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING QUITE SO STRONGLY AS
BEFORE. THERE IS MORE ENERGY BEING PUT INTO CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA THE EVENTUALLY SAGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY SO THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64/26
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FILL
IN MOST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE BRUSH BY THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE NORTH
OF KSLE. AREAS SOUTH OF KSLE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY KEEP
SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND IN NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE COAST AFT 21Z. STRATUS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN INLAND TONIGHT...AS WILL IFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF STRATUS
JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. AM CONFIDENT IN MVFR CIGS
FOR THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING...BY 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT
20Z...BUT ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 5 KFT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NE
WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 22Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF
THE NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SEAS WILL COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK
AROUND 7 FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
WATERS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 290938
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
238 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
CAUSING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. THEREFORE WILL RECOMMEND TO FIRE WEATHER
SHIFT TO ONLY INCLUDE A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME COOLER TODAY THAN ON THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE FOR THE
MOST PART. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE SOME MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER THE CASCADE
CREST ONTO THE EAST SLOPES. DOWN SLOPE WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES WILL CAUSE QUICK DRYING OF THIS AIR SO AM NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TOO FAR EASTWARD AND MAINLY JUST OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA
THE NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS WILL CREATE
UPSLOPE WIND CONDITIONS AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THERE AS WELL
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BORDER. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN FURTHER COOLING AND A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE WINDS WILL NO LONGER FAVOR
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY
AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST SO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYMORE SHOWERS STARTING SATURDAY. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE
FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA CHANGING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO WEST TUESDAY THEN
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH BUT THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO
30 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  54  73  51 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  84  58  75  54 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  86  57  79  53 /   0  10  10  10
YKM  79  53  74  51 /   0  10  10  10
HRI  85  56  77  53 /   0  10  10  10
ELN  75  52  69  50 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  80  48  70  42 /   0  10  10  10
LGD  82  52  69  45 /  10  20  10  10
GCD  83  49  70  43 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  78  56  74  55 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76





000
FXUS66 KPDT 290938
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
238 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
CAUSING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. THEREFORE WILL RECOMMEND TO FIRE WEATHER
SHIFT TO ONLY INCLUDE A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME COOLER TODAY THAN ON THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE FOR THE
MOST PART. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE SOME MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER THE CASCADE
CREST ONTO THE EAST SLOPES. DOWN SLOPE WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES WILL CAUSE QUICK DRYING OF THIS AIR SO AM NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TOO FAR EASTWARD AND MAINLY JUST OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA
THE NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS WILL CREATE
UPSLOPE WIND CONDITIONS AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THERE AS WELL
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BORDER. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN FURTHER COOLING AND A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE WINDS WILL NO LONGER FAVOR
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY
AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST SO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYMORE SHOWERS STARTING SATURDAY. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE
FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA CHANGING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO WEST TUESDAY THEN
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH BUT THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO
30 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  54  73  51 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  84  58  75  54 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  86  57  79  53 /   0  10  10  10
YKM  79  53  74  51 /   0  10  10  10
HRI  85  56  77  53 /   0  10  10  10
ELN  75  52  69  50 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  80  48  70  42 /   0  10  10  10
LGD  82  52  69  45 /  10  20  10  10
GCD  83  49  70  43 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  78  56  74  55 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76





000
FXUS66 KPDT 290938
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
238 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
CAUSING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. THEREFORE WILL RECOMMEND TO FIRE WEATHER
SHIFT TO ONLY INCLUDE A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME COOLER TODAY THAN ON THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE FOR THE
MOST PART. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE SOME MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER THE CASCADE
CREST ONTO THE EAST SLOPES. DOWN SLOPE WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES WILL CAUSE QUICK DRYING OF THIS AIR SO AM NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TOO FAR EASTWARD AND MAINLY JUST OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA
THE NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS WILL CREATE
UPSLOPE WIND CONDITIONS AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THERE AS WELL
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BORDER. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN FURTHER COOLING AND A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE WINDS WILL NO LONGER FAVOR
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY
AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST SO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYMORE SHOWERS STARTING SATURDAY. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE
FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA CHANGING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO WEST TUESDAY THEN
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH BUT THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO
30 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  54  73  51 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  84  58  75  54 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  86  57  79  53 /   0  10  10  10
YKM  79  53  74  51 /   0  10  10  10
HRI  85  56  77  53 /   0  10  10  10
ELN  75  52  69  50 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  80  48  70  42 /   0  10  10  10
LGD  82  52  69  45 /  10  20  10  10
GCD  83  49  70  43 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  78  56  74  55 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76





000
FXUS66 KPDT 290938
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
238 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
CAUSING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. THEREFORE WILL RECOMMEND TO FIRE WEATHER
SHIFT TO ONLY INCLUDE A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME COOLER TODAY THAN ON THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE FOR THE
MOST PART. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE SOME MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER THE CASCADE
CREST ONTO THE EAST SLOPES. DOWN SLOPE WINDS ON THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES WILL CAUSE QUICK DRYING OF THIS AIR SO AM NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TOO FAR EASTWARD AND MAINLY JUST OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SLOPES. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA
THE NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS WILL CREATE
UPSLOPE WIND CONDITIONS AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THERE AS WELL
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BORDER. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN FURTHER COOLING AND A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THE WINDS WILL NO LONGER FAVOR
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY
AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST SO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYMORE SHOWERS STARTING SATURDAY. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO THE 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN LIFT WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT WEAK WAVES IN THE
FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY A TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA CHANGING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO WEST TUESDAY THEN
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH BUT THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND LIFT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA. DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO
30 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  54  73  51 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  84  58  75  54 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  86  57  79  53 /   0  10  10  10
YKM  79  53  74  51 /   0  10  10  10
HRI  85  56  77  53 /   0  10  10  10
ELN  75  52  69  50 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  80  48  70  42 /   0  10  10  10
LGD  82  52  69  45 /  10  20  10  10
GCD  83  49  70  43 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  78  56  74  55 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76





000
FXUS65 KBOI 290933
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
333 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE FROM
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE`S SW TO 40N 140W IS WITH A COLD FRONT DUE IN
TONIGHT. FRONT IS NEARING NW WA AT 3 AM. SCATTERED TO THIN BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE WILL EXPAND OVER THE
AREA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE WAS NEAR THE NV BORDER AND
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. PREFRONTAL LIFT
AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA /BOISE
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TWIN FALLS BY 6 AM/ THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND CALIBRATED SPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTED
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS /WHICH WERE ADDED/ SO THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS PACKAGE. COOLER AND LOCALLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN
WEST COAST.  THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AXIS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES COOLING TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO FROM WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 21Z.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET
MSL.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL AREAS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 290933
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
333 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE FROM
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE`S SW TO 40N 140W IS WITH A COLD FRONT DUE IN
TONIGHT. FRONT IS NEARING NW WA AT 3 AM. SCATTERED TO THIN BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE WILL EXPAND OVER THE
AREA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE WAS NEAR THE NV BORDER AND
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. PREFRONTAL LIFT
AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA /BOISE
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TWIN FALLS BY 6 AM/ THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND CALIBRATED SPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTED
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS /WHICH WERE ADDED/ SO THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS PACKAGE. COOLER AND LOCALLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN
WEST COAST.  THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AXIS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES COOLING TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO FROM WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 21Z.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET
MSL.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL AREAS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS66 KMFR 290905 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
204 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ADDED UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...29/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON. THERE IS ALSO A LOT
OF SMOKE COMING OFF THE WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY FIRES. OTHER THAN
THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.

SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST ONE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY. IT WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ONSHORE AHEAD OF IT. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL BE
DRY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE CASCADES EAST WITH SPEEDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. THE WEST SIDE WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE EAST SIDE. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...BUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CRANK UP THE DEPTH
OF THE MARINE LAYER...SO EXPECT MORE INLAND PENETRATION OF STRATUS
IN THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY. EXPECT A REPLAY OF THE
FRIDAY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ALSO MAY BE
SOME DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO FILL UP
THE UMPQUA BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT LIKELY WON`T BE THICK
ENOUGH TO SPILL OVER INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY. INLAND TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES TO VALUES ANYWHERE FROM JUST BELOW
TO NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE MEDFORD CWA WILL
REMAIN UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER DEPTH WILL DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS SATURDAY...BUT
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN MORE
STRONGLY.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FAR OFFSHORE FROM
CALIFORNIA ON THE WEEKEND WILL BUILD EAST TO THE COAST ON LABOR
DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
A MARINE PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO
SUNDAY NIGHT THAT IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
INLAND TUESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE
NOTICEABLY AFTER TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER, FASTER,
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT MID-WEEK. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE CONTINUED VERY WARM AND
DRY FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF AROUND 21Z, BUT WITH ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY, SOME AREAS MAY NEVER MAKE IT
OUT OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE IFR RETURNS LATE IN THE EVENING. THE MARINE
LAYER STRATUS WILL ALSO MAKE A RUN INLAND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN,
MAKING IT AS FAR AS KRBG BEFORE BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE PLUME FROM
THOSE FIRES WILL ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF HAZE AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CIGS DOWNWIND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND INTO THE KLAMATH BASIN, WHERE MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE AT KLMT DUE
TO SMOKE AND HAZE. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT FRI 29 AUG 2014...VERY SHORT PERIOD
SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN PART OF THE MARINE ZONE THIS MORNING. CHOPPY
SEAS WILL EXPAND CLOSER TO THE COAST AND COME WITHIN MARINE ZONE 356
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

15/15/08







000
FXUS66 KMFR 290905 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
204 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ADDED UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...29/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON. THERE IS ALSO A LOT
OF SMOKE COMING OFF THE WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY FIRES. OTHER THAN
THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.

SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST ONE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY. IT WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ONSHORE AHEAD OF IT. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL BE
DRY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE CASCADES EAST WITH SPEEDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. THE WEST SIDE WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE EAST SIDE. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...BUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CRANK UP THE DEPTH
OF THE MARINE LAYER...SO EXPECT MORE INLAND PENETRATION OF STRATUS
IN THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY. EXPECT A REPLAY OF THE
FRIDAY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ALSO MAY BE
SOME DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO FILL UP
THE UMPQUA BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT LIKELY WON`T BE THICK
ENOUGH TO SPILL OVER INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY. INLAND TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES TO VALUES ANYWHERE FROM JUST BELOW
TO NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE MEDFORD CWA WILL
REMAIN UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER DEPTH WILL DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS SATURDAY...BUT
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN MORE
STRONGLY.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FAR OFFSHORE FROM
CALIFORNIA ON THE WEEKEND WILL BUILD EAST TO THE COAST ON LABOR
DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
A MARINE PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO
SUNDAY NIGHT THAT IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
INLAND TUESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE
NOTICEABLY AFTER TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER, FASTER,
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT MID-WEEK. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE CONTINUED VERY WARM AND
DRY FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF AROUND 21Z, BUT WITH ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY, SOME AREAS MAY NEVER MAKE IT
OUT OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE IFR RETURNS LATE IN THE EVENING. THE MARINE
LAYER STRATUS WILL ALSO MAKE A RUN INLAND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN,
MAKING IT AS FAR AS KRBG BEFORE BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE PLUME FROM
THOSE FIRES WILL ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF HAZE AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CIGS DOWNWIND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND INTO THE KLAMATH BASIN, WHERE MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE AT KLMT DUE
TO SMOKE AND HAZE. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT FRI 29 AUG 2014...VERY SHORT PERIOD
SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN PART OF THE MARINE ZONE THIS MORNING. CHOPPY
SEAS WILL EXPAND CLOSER TO THE COAST AND COME WITHIN MARINE ZONE 356
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

15/15/08







000
FXUS66 KMFR 290905 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
204 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ADDED UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...29/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON. THERE IS ALSO A LOT
OF SMOKE COMING OFF THE WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY FIRES. OTHER THAN
THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.

SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST ONE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY. IT WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ONSHORE AHEAD OF IT. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL BE
DRY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE CASCADES EAST WITH SPEEDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. THE WEST SIDE WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE EAST SIDE. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...BUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CRANK UP THE DEPTH
OF THE MARINE LAYER...SO EXPECT MORE INLAND PENETRATION OF STRATUS
IN THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY. EXPECT A REPLAY OF THE
FRIDAY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ALSO MAY BE
SOME DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO FILL UP
THE UMPQUA BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT LIKELY WON`T BE THICK
ENOUGH TO SPILL OVER INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY. INLAND TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES TO VALUES ANYWHERE FROM JUST BELOW
TO NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE MEDFORD CWA WILL
REMAIN UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER DEPTH WILL DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS SATURDAY...BUT
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN MORE
STRONGLY.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FAR OFFSHORE FROM
CALIFORNIA ON THE WEEKEND WILL BUILD EAST TO THE COAST ON LABOR
DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
A MARINE PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO
SUNDAY NIGHT THAT IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
INLAND TUESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE
NOTICEABLY AFTER TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER, FASTER,
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT MID-WEEK. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE CONTINUED VERY WARM AND
DRY FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF AROUND 21Z, BUT WITH ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY, SOME AREAS MAY NEVER MAKE IT
OUT OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE IFR RETURNS LATE IN THE EVENING. THE MARINE
LAYER STRATUS WILL ALSO MAKE A RUN INLAND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN,
MAKING IT AS FAR AS KRBG BEFORE BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE PLUME FROM
THOSE FIRES WILL ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF HAZE AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CIGS DOWNWIND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND INTO THE KLAMATH BASIN, WHERE MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE AT KLMT DUE
TO SMOKE AND HAZE. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT FRI 29 AUG 2014...VERY SHORT PERIOD
SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN PART OF THE MARINE ZONE THIS MORNING. CHOPPY
SEAS WILL EXPAND CLOSER TO THE COAST AND COME WITHIN MARINE ZONE 356
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

15/15/08







000
FXUS66 KMFR 290905 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
204 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ADDED UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...29/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON. THERE IS ALSO A LOT
OF SMOKE COMING OFF THE WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY FIRES. OTHER THAN
THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.

SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST ONE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY. IT WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ONSHORE AHEAD OF IT. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL BE
DRY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE CASCADES EAST WITH SPEEDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. THE WEST SIDE WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE EAST SIDE. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...BUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CRANK UP THE DEPTH
OF THE MARINE LAYER...SO EXPECT MORE INLAND PENETRATION OF STRATUS
IN THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY. EXPECT A REPLAY OF THE
FRIDAY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ALSO MAY BE
SOME DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO FILL UP
THE UMPQUA BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT LIKELY WON`T BE THICK
ENOUGH TO SPILL OVER INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY. INLAND TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES TO VALUES ANYWHERE FROM JUST BELOW
TO NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE MEDFORD CWA WILL
REMAIN UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER DEPTH WILL DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS SATURDAY...BUT
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN MORE
STRONGLY.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FAR OFFSHORE FROM
CALIFORNIA ON THE WEEKEND WILL BUILD EAST TO THE COAST ON LABOR
DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
A MARINE PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO
SUNDAY NIGHT THAT IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
INLAND TUESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE
NOTICEABLY AFTER TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER, FASTER,
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT MID-WEEK. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE CONTINUED VERY WARM AND
DRY FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF AROUND 21Z, BUT WITH ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY, SOME AREAS MAY NEVER MAKE IT
OUT OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE IFR RETURNS LATE IN THE EVENING. THE MARINE
LAYER STRATUS WILL ALSO MAKE A RUN INLAND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN,
MAKING IT AS FAR AS KRBG BEFORE BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE PLUME FROM
THOSE FIRES WILL ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF HAZE AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CIGS DOWNWIND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND INTO THE KLAMATH BASIN, WHERE MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE AT KLMT DUE
TO SMOKE AND HAZE. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT FRI 29 AUG 2014...VERY SHORT PERIOD
SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN PART OF THE MARINE ZONE THIS MORNING. CHOPPY
SEAS WILL EXPAND CLOSER TO THE COAST AND COME WITHIN MARINE ZONE 356
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

15/15/08







000
FXUS66 KMFR 290800
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
100 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...29/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON. THERE IS ALSO A LOT
OF SMOKE COMING OFF THE WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY FIRES. OTHER THAN
THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.

SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST ONE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY. IT WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ONSHORE AHEAD OF IT. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL BE
DRY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE CASCADES EAST WITH SPEEDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. THE WEST SIDE WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE EAST SIDE. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...BUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CRANK UP THE DEPTH
OF THE MARINE LAYER...SO EXPECT MORE INLAND PENETRATION OF STRATUS
IN THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY. EXPECT A REPLAY OF THE
FRIDAY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ALSO MAY BE
SOME DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO FILL UP
THE UMPQUA BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT LIKELY WON`T BE THICK
ENOUGH TO SPILL OVER INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY. INLAND TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES TO VALUES ANYWHERE FROM JUST BELOW
TO NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE MEDFORD CWA WILL
REMAIN UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER DEPTH WILL DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS SATURDAY...BUT
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN MORE
STRONGLY.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FAR OFFSHORE FROM
CALIFORNIA ON THE WEEKEND WILL BUILD EAST TO THE COAST ON LABOR
DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
A MARINE PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO
SUNDAY NIGHT THAT IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
INLAND TUESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE
NOTICEABLY AFTER TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER, FASTER,
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT MID-WEEK. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE CONTINUED VERY WARM AND
DRY FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF AROUND 21Z, BUT WITH ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY, SOME AREAS MAY NEVER MAKE IT
OUT OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE IFR RETURNS LATE IN THE EVENING. THE MARINE
LAYER STRATUS WILL ALSO MAKE A RUN INLAND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN,
MAKING IT AS FAR AS KRBG BEFORE BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE PLUME FROM
THOSE FIRES WILL ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF HAZE AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CIGS DOWNWIND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND INTO THE KLAMATH BASIN, WHERE MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE AT KLMT DUE
TO SMOKE AND HAZE. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 810 PM PDT THU 28 AUG 2014...THE THERMAL TROUGH
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING, AND WINDS HAVE DECREASED AS
WELL. HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS, BUT LEFT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS, AS CHOPPY SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH TONIGHT THEN RETURN ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES INLAND,
EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO
VERY STEEP SEAS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

15/15/08




000
FXUS66 KMFR 290800
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
100 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...29/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON. THERE IS ALSO A LOT
OF SMOKE COMING OFF THE WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY FIRES. OTHER THAN
THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.

SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST ONE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY. IT WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ONSHORE AHEAD OF IT. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL BE
DRY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE CASCADES EAST WITH SPEEDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. THE WEST SIDE WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE EAST SIDE. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...BUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CRANK UP THE DEPTH
OF THE MARINE LAYER...SO EXPECT MORE INLAND PENETRATION OF STRATUS
IN THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY. EXPECT A REPLAY OF THE
FRIDAY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ALSO MAY BE
SOME DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MARINE LAYER
DEPTH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO FILL UP
THE UMPQUA BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT LIKELY WON`T BE THICK
ENOUGH TO SPILL OVER INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY. INLAND TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES TO VALUES ANYWHERE FROM JUST BELOW
TO NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE MEDFORD CWA WILL
REMAIN UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER DEPTH WILL DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS SATURDAY...BUT
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN MORE
STRONGLY.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FAR OFFSHORE FROM
CALIFORNIA ON THE WEEKEND WILL BUILD EAST TO THE COAST ON LABOR
DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
A MARINE PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO
SUNDAY NIGHT THAT IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
INLAND TUESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE
NOTICEABLY AFTER TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER, FASTER,
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT MID-WEEK. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE CONTINUED VERY WARM AND
DRY FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF AROUND 21Z, BUT WITH ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY, SOME AREAS MAY NEVER MAKE IT
OUT OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE IFR RETURNS LATE IN THE EVENING. THE MARINE
LAYER STRATUS WILL ALSO MAKE A RUN INLAND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN,
MAKING IT AS FAR AS KRBG BEFORE BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE PLUME FROM
THOSE FIRES WILL ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF HAZE AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CIGS DOWNWIND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND INTO THE KLAMATH BASIN, WHERE MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE AT KLMT DUE
TO SMOKE AND HAZE. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 810 PM PDT THU 28 AUG 2014...THE THERMAL TROUGH
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING, AND WINDS HAVE DECREASED AS
WELL. HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS, BUT LEFT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS, AS CHOPPY SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH TONIGHT THEN RETURN ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES INLAND,
EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO
VERY STEEP SEAS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

15/15/08





000
FXUS66 KPDT 290517
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1018 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WITH
A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS BUT NOW
SKIES ARE CLEARING AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY BUT THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SAGGING A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP AROUND 5 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST IN AN
EVENING UPDATE.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO
30 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MAIN IMPACTS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS. SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
AND BLUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. HIGHS SATURDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY. FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  94

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GIVE US A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ASHORE WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY GOING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. BY TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FASTER ECMWF HAS IT MOVING
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY WHILE THE SLOWER GFS MAINTAINS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE LEFT THAT FOR NOW. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS A SHARP TROUGH OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS
IS STILL DEVELOPING THE TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BUT IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT
AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND THE GFS HAS IT CENTERED OVER PUGET
SOUND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE GFS
HAS THEM STILL CONFINED TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LOWERING INTO THE TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE COLUMBIA DESCHUTES PLATEAU.  THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY
AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20S.  WINDS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY TOMORROW AS WELL...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT A WATCH OR WARNING.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  84  53  74 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  62  85  57  76 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  60  86  56  79 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  58  81  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
HRI  59  86  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  61  77  51  72 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  49  81  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  51  83  51  70 /   0  10  20  20
GCD  52  84  48  71 /   0  10  20  10
DLS  61  81  55  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91







000
FXUS66 KPDT 290517
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1018 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WITH
A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS BUT NOW
SKIES ARE CLEARING AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY BUT THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SAGGING A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP AROUND 5 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST IN AN
EVENING UPDATE.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO
30 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MAIN IMPACTS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS. SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
AND BLUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. HIGHS SATURDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY. FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  94

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GIVE US A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ASHORE WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY GOING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. BY TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FASTER ECMWF HAS IT MOVING
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY WHILE THE SLOWER GFS MAINTAINS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE LEFT THAT FOR NOW. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS A SHARP TROUGH OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS
IS STILL DEVELOPING THE TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BUT IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT
AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND THE GFS HAS IT CENTERED OVER PUGET
SOUND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE GFS
HAS THEM STILL CONFINED TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LOWERING INTO THE TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE COLUMBIA DESCHUTES PLATEAU.  THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY
AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20S.  WINDS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY TOMORROW AS WELL...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT A WATCH OR WARNING.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  84  53  74 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  62  85  57  76 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  60  86  56  79 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  58  81  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
HRI  59  86  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  61  77  51  72 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  49  81  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  51  83  51  70 /   0  10  20  20
GCD  52  84  48  71 /   0  10  20  10
DLS  61  81  55  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91







000
FXUS66 KPDT 290517
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1018 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WITH
A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS BUT NOW
SKIES ARE CLEARING AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY BUT THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SAGGING A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP AROUND 5 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST IN AN
EVENING UPDATE.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO
30 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MAIN IMPACTS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS. SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
AND BLUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. HIGHS SATURDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY. FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  94

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GIVE US A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ASHORE WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY GOING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. BY TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FASTER ECMWF HAS IT MOVING
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY WHILE THE SLOWER GFS MAINTAINS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE LEFT THAT FOR NOW. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS A SHARP TROUGH OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS
IS STILL DEVELOPING THE TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BUT IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT
AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND THE GFS HAS IT CENTERED OVER PUGET
SOUND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE GFS
HAS THEM STILL CONFINED TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LOWERING INTO THE TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE COLUMBIA DESCHUTES PLATEAU.  THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY
AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20S.  WINDS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY TOMORROW AS WELL...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT A WATCH OR WARNING.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  84  53  74 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  62  85  57  76 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  60  86  56  79 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  58  81  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
HRI  59  86  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  61  77  51  72 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  49  81  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  51  83  51  70 /   0  10  20  20
GCD  52  84  48  71 /   0  10  20  10
DLS  61  81  55  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91







000
FXUS66 KPDT 290517
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1018 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WITH
A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS BUT NOW
SKIES ARE CLEARING AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY BUT THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SAGGING A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP AROUND 5 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST IN AN
EVENING UPDATE.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO
30 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MAIN IMPACTS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS. SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
AND BLUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. HIGHS SATURDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY. FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  94

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GIVE US A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ASHORE WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY GOING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. BY TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FASTER ECMWF HAS IT MOVING
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY WHILE THE SLOWER GFS MAINTAINS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE LEFT THAT FOR NOW. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS A SHARP TROUGH OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS
IS STILL DEVELOPING THE TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BUT IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT
AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND THE GFS HAS IT CENTERED OVER PUGET
SOUND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE GFS
HAS THEM STILL CONFINED TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LOWERING INTO THE TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE COLUMBIA DESCHUTES PLATEAU.  THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY
AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20S.  WINDS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY TOMORROW AS WELL...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT A WATCH OR WARNING.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  84  53  74 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  62  85  57  76 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  60  86  56  79 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  58  81  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
HRI  59  86  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  61  77  51  72 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  49  81  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  51  83  51  70 /   0  10  20  20
GCD  52  84  48  71 /   0  10  20  10
DLS  61  81  55  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91







000
FXUS66 KPQR 290317
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
815 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOW INCREASING JUST OFFSHORE AND INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT FRONT THAT LIES
MUCH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ALSO SIGNIFY THE ONSET OF
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. AS OF 8 PM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN
NEARLY ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
INTERIOR OVERNIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.

WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ON THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AM. FURTHER INLAND...CLOUDS SHOULD FILL ALL OF
THE INTERIOR WITH MARINE CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL INTO THE CASCADES FRI
AM. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FRI AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL RUN A GOOD 6 TO 12 DEG UNDER
WHAT SAW ON THU...WITH LARGEST DROPS TO S AND SE OF SALEM.

THE MAIN PART OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND
INTO SAT AM. WHILE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...MODELS STILL INDICATE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS SAT AM. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN DURING THAT
TIME. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT OR TWO CONTINUE TO SIFT OVER NEW 00Z AND
06Z MODEL DATA...BUT SUSPECT WILL HAVE TO BOOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

NO CHANCE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WILL KEEP MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES.     ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATES WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TONIGHT...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF STRATUS. STRATUS WITH LIFR CIGS AND AREAS IFR VIS HAS
ALREADY MOVED ONTO THE COAST...AND THIS STRATUS WILL SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE NIGHT LIKELY BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO INTERIOR TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AS A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST AREAS
OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT...BUT MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. -WRIGHT
&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290317
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
815 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOW INCREASING JUST OFFSHORE AND INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT FRONT THAT LIES
MUCH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ALSO SIGNIFY THE ONSET OF
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. AS OF 8 PM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN
NEARLY ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
INTERIOR OVERNIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.

WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ON THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AM. FURTHER INLAND...CLOUDS SHOULD FILL ALL OF
THE INTERIOR WITH MARINE CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL INTO THE CASCADES FRI
AM. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FRI AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL RUN A GOOD 6 TO 12 DEG UNDER
WHAT SAW ON THU...WITH LARGEST DROPS TO S AND SE OF SALEM.

THE MAIN PART OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND
INTO SAT AM. WHILE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...MODELS STILL INDICATE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS SAT AM. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN DURING THAT
TIME. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT OR TWO CONTINUE TO SIFT OVER NEW 00Z AND
06Z MODEL DATA...BUT SUSPECT WILL HAVE TO BOOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

NO CHANCE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WILL KEEP MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES.     ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATES WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TONIGHT...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF STRATUS. STRATUS WITH LIFR CIGS AND AREAS IFR VIS HAS
ALREADY MOVED ONTO THE COAST...AND THIS STRATUS WILL SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE NIGHT LIKELY BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO INTERIOR TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AS A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST AREAS
OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT...BUT MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. -WRIGHT
&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290317
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
815 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOW INCREASING JUST OFFSHORE AND INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT FRONT THAT LIES
MUCH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ALSO SIGNIFY THE ONSET OF
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. AS OF 8 PM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN
NEARLY ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
INTERIOR OVERNIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.

WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ON THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AM. FURTHER INLAND...CLOUDS SHOULD FILL ALL OF
THE INTERIOR WITH MARINE CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL INTO THE CASCADES FRI
AM. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FRI AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL RUN A GOOD 6 TO 12 DEG UNDER
WHAT SAW ON THU...WITH LARGEST DROPS TO S AND SE OF SALEM.

THE MAIN PART OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND
INTO SAT AM. WHILE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...MODELS STILL INDICATE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS SAT AM. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN DURING THAT
TIME. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT OR TWO CONTINUE TO SIFT OVER NEW 00Z AND
06Z MODEL DATA...BUT SUSPECT WILL HAVE TO BOOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

NO CHANCE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WILL KEEP MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES.     ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATES WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TONIGHT...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF STRATUS. STRATUS WITH LIFR CIGS AND AREAS IFR VIS HAS
ALREADY MOVED ONTO THE COAST...AND THIS STRATUS WILL SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE NIGHT LIKELY BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO INTERIOR TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AS A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST AREAS
OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT...BUT MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. -WRIGHT
&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 290317
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
815 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SATURDAY. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER RESUMES NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOW INCREASING JUST OFFSHORE AND INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT FRONT THAT LIES
MUCH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ALSO SIGNIFY THE ONSET OF
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. AS OF 8 PM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN
NEARLY ALL COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
INTERIOR OVERNIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.

WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ON THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AM. FURTHER INLAND...CLOUDS SHOULD FILL ALL OF
THE INTERIOR WITH MARINE CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL INTO THE CASCADES FRI
AM. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP FRI AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL RUN A GOOD 6 TO 12 DEG UNDER
WHAT SAW ON THU...WITH LARGEST DROPS TO S AND SE OF SALEM.

THE MAIN PART OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND
INTO SAT AM. WHILE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...MODELS STILL INDICATE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS SAT AM. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN DURING THAT
TIME. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT OR TWO CONTINUE TO SIFT OVER NEW 00Z AND
06Z MODEL DATA...BUT SUSPECT WILL HAVE TO BOOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

NO CHANCE IN TRENDS FOR SUN...AS MORE LIKELY TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. WILL KEEP MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES.     ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATES WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TONIGHT...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF STRATUS. STRATUS WITH LIFR CIGS AND AREAS IFR VIS HAS
ALREADY MOVED ONTO THE COAST...AND THIS STRATUS WILL SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE NIGHT LIKELY BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO INTERIOR TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AS A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST AREAS
OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT...BUT MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. -WRIGHT
&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 290312
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
812 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...AN IMPRESSIVE PYROCUMULUS CLOUD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
HAPPY CAMP COMPLEX IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THIS EVENING,
SPREADING A NICE LAYER OF SMOKE AND CLOUD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO ADD SOME
CLOUD COVER OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE FIRES, AND TO ADD SMOKE AND
HAZE TO AREAS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THE PLUME. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS FLOW TURNS INCREASINGLY
ONSHORE. WE COULD EVEN SEE LIFR IN BOTH VIS AND CIGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MARINE STRATUS WILL ALSO MAKE A RUN INLAND TOWARDS THE
UMPQUA BASIN OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
REACH KRBG. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS DOWNWIND. -BPN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 810 PM PDT THU 28 AUG 2014...THE THERMAL TROUGH
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING, AND WINDS HAVE DECREASED AS
WELL. HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS, BUT LEFT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS, AS CHOPPY SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH TONIGHT THEN RETURN ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES INLAND,
EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO
VERY STEEP SEAS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE RELATIVELY MINOR. THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND IS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WITHOUT
ANY PRECIPITATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHILE ANOTHER BROADER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA. TOGETHER THEY HAVE FLATTENED/WEAKENED THE STRONG RIDGE
THAT REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE HAD
BROUGHT NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING AROUND
2 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE COOLING WILL BECOME A
TREND ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WITH MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING FOR THE
WEEKEND.

BESIDES THE COOLING TREND, THERE IS ALSO A TREND OF INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS INTO
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH THIS EVENING
AND THEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MEANTIME, WEST SIDE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BUT A FEW TO
SEVERAL MPH SLOWER. THE STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT THEN ANOTHER
DRY FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY. THESE FRONTS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAINLY TO THE COAST AND UMPQUA
VALLEY. I HAVE TAKEN OUT A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY
MORNING AT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO DUE TO THE EXPECTED
SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE, ONLY EXTENDING UP TO 925 MB. BUT THE
SECOND PUSH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER, EXTENDING TO
900MB AND DEEP ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF PATCHY COASTAL
DRIZZLE. ON BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT, LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD FROM THE COAST INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY, BUT WITH A MARINE
LAYER THAT IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO MAKE IT OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING A DRIER
NORTH TO NORTHEAST RATHER THAN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A
DECREASE IN BOTH THE EXTENT OF COASTAL STRATUS AND INLAND
INTRUSION INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BE FAR OFFSHORE FROM CALIFORNIA ON THE WEEKEND THEN BUILD EAST TO
THE COAST ON LABOR DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE NORTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A MARINE PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO SUNDAY NIGHT THAT IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
INLAND TUESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE
NOTICEABLY AFTER TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER, FASTER,
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT MID-WEEK. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE CONTINUED VERY WARM AND
DRY FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BPN/DW







000
FXUS66 KMFR 290312
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
812 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...AN IMPRESSIVE PYROCUMULUS CLOUD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
HAPPY CAMP COMPLEX IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THIS EVENING,
SPREADING A NICE LAYER OF SMOKE AND CLOUD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO ADD SOME
CLOUD COVER OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE FIRES, AND TO ADD SMOKE AND
HAZE TO AREAS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THE PLUME. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS FLOW TURNS INCREASINGLY
ONSHORE. WE COULD EVEN SEE LIFR IN BOTH VIS AND CIGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MARINE STRATUS WILL ALSO MAKE A RUN INLAND TOWARDS THE
UMPQUA BASIN OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
REACH KRBG. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS DOWNWIND. -BPN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 810 PM PDT THU 28 AUG 2014...THE THERMAL TROUGH
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING, AND WINDS HAVE DECREASED AS
WELL. HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS, BUT LEFT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS, AS CHOPPY SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH TONIGHT THEN RETURN ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES INLAND,
EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO
VERY STEEP SEAS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE RELATIVELY MINOR. THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND IS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WITHOUT
ANY PRECIPITATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHILE ANOTHER BROADER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA. TOGETHER THEY HAVE FLATTENED/WEAKENED THE STRONG RIDGE
THAT REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE HAD
BROUGHT NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING AROUND
2 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE COOLING WILL BECOME A
TREND ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WITH MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING FOR THE
WEEKEND.

BESIDES THE COOLING TREND, THERE IS ALSO A TREND OF INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS INTO
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH THIS EVENING
AND THEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MEANTIME, WEST SIDE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BUT A FEW TO
SEVERAL MPH SLOWER. THE STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT THEN ANOTHER
DRY FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY. THESE FRONTS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAINLY TO THE COAST AND UMPQUA
VALLEY. I HAVE TAKEN OUT A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY
MORNING AT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO DUE TO THE EXPECTED
SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE, ONLY EXTENDING UP TO 925 MB. BUT THE
SECOND PUSH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER, EXTENDING TO
900MB AND DEEP ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF PATCHY COASTAL
DRIZZLE. ON BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT, LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD FROM THE COAST INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY, BUT WITH A MARINE
LAYER THAT IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO MAKE IT OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING A DRIER
NORTH TO NORTHEAST RATHER THAN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A
DECREASE IN BOTH THE EXTENT OF COASTAL STRATUS AND INLAND
INTRUSION INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BE FAR OFFSHORE FROM CALIFORNIA ON THE WEEKEND THEN BUILD EAST TO
THE COAST ON LABOR DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE NORTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A MARINE PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO SUNDAY NIGHT THAT IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
INLAND TUESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE
NOTICEABLY AFTER TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER, FASTER,
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT MID-WEEK. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE CONTINUED VERY WARM AND
DRY FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BPN/DW






000
FXUS66 KPDT 290228
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
728 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WITH
A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS BUT NOW
SKIES ARE CLEARING AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY BUT THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SAGGING A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP AROUND 5 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST IN AN
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MAIN IMPACTS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS. SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
AND BLUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. HIGHS SATURDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY. FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  94

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GIVE US A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ASHORE WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY GOING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. BY TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FASTER ECMWF HAS IT MOVING
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY WHILE THE SLOWER GFS MAINTAINS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE LEFT THAT FOR NOW. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS A SHARP TROUGH OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS
IS STILL DEVELOPING THE TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BUT IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT
AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND THE GFS HAS IT CENTERED OVER PUGET
SOUND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE GFS
HAS THEM STILL CONFINED TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10
TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW 15 KTS AROUND 04Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING
AGAIN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AFTER 21Z. PERRY

FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LOWERING INTO THE TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE COLUMBIA DESCHUTES PLATEAU.  THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY
AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20S.  WINDS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY TOMORROW AS WELL...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT A WATCH OR WARNING.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  84  53  74 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  62  85  57  76 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  60  86  56  79 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  58  81  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
HRI  59  86  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  61  77  51  72 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  49  81  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  51  83  51  70 /   0  10  20  20
GCD  52  84  48  71 /   0  10  20  10
DLS  61  81  55  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91








000
FXUS66 KPDT 290228
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
728 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WITH
A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS BUT NOW
SKIES ARE CLEARING AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY BUT THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SAGGING A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP AROUND 5 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST IN AN
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MAIN IMPACTS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS. SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
AND BLUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. HIGHS SATURDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY. FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  94

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GIVE US A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ASHORE WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY GOING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. BY TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FASTER ECMWF HAS IT MOVING
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY WHILE THE SLOWER GFS MAINTAINS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE LEFT THAT FOR NOW. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS A SHARP TROUGH OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS
IS STILL DEVELOPING THE TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BUT IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT
AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND THE GFS HAS IT CENTERED OVER PUGET
SOUND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE GFS
HAS THEM STILL CONFINED TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10
TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW 15 KTS AROUND 04Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING
AGAIN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AFTER 21Z. PERRY

FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LOWERING INTO THE TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE COLUMBIA DESCHUTES PLATEAU.  THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY
AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20S.  WINDS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY TOMORROW AS WELL...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT A WATCH OR WARNING.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  84  53  74 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  62  85  57  76 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  60  86  56  79 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  58  81  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
HRI  59  86  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  61  77  51  72 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  49  81  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  51  83  51  70 /   0  10  20  20
GCD  52  84  48  71 /   0  10  20  10
DLS  61  81  55  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91








000
FXUS66 KPDT 290228
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
728 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WITH
A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS BUT NOW
SKIES ARE CLEARING AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY BUT THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SAGGING A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP AROUND 5 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST IN AN
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MAIN IMPACTS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS. SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
AND BLUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. HIGHS SATURDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY. FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  94

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GIVE US A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ASHORE WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY GOING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. BY TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FASTER ECMWF HAS IT MOVING
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY WHILE THE SLOWER GFS MAINTAINS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE LEFT THAT FOR NOW. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS A SHARP TROUGH OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS
IS STILL DEVELOPING THE TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BUT IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT
AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND THE GFS HAS IT CENTERED OVER PUGET
SOUND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE GFS
HAS THEM STILL CONFINED TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10
TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW 15 KTS AROUND 04Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING
AGAIN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AFTER 21Z. PERRY

FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LOWERING INTO THE TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE COLUMBIA DESCHUTES PLATEAU.  THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY
AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20S.  WINDS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY TOMORROW AS WELL...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT A WATCH OR WARNING.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  84  53  74 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  62  85  57  76 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  60  86  56  79 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  58  81  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
HRI  59  86  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  61  77  51  72 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  49  81  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  51  83  51  70 /   0  10  20  20
GCD  52  84  48  71 /   0  10  20  10
DLS  61  81  55  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91








000
FXUS66 KPDT 290228
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
728 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WITH
A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS BUT NOW
SKIES ARE CLEARING AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY BUT THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SAGGING A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP AROUND 5 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST IN AN
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MAIN IMPACTS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS. SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
AND BLUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. HIGHS SATURDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY. FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  94

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GIVE US A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ASHORE WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY GOING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. BY TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FASTER ECMWF HAS IT MOVING
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY WHILE THE SLOWER GFS MAINTAINS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE LEFT THAT FOR NOW. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS A SHARP TROUGH OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS
IS STILL DEVELOPING THE TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BUT IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT
AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND THE GFS HAS IT CENTERED OVER PUGET
SOUND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE GFS
HAS THEM STILL CONFINED TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10
TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW 15 KTS AROUND 04Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING
AGAIN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AFTER 21Z. PERRY

FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LOWERING INTO THE TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE COLUMBIA DESCHUTES PLATEAU.  THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY
AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20S.  WINDS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY TOMORROW AS WELL...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT A WATCH OR WARNING.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  84  53  74 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  62  85  57  76 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  60  86  56  79 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  58  81  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
HRI  59  86  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  61  77  51  72 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  49  81  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  51  83  51  70 /   0  10  20  20
GCD  52  84  48  71 /   0  10  20  10
DLS  61  81  55  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91








000
FXUS65 KBOI 290215
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
815 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER IN MALHEUR AND SOUTHWEST OWYHEE COUNTIES.
THESE ARE FORMING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS NRN CA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THERE IS INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
MAINTAIN CONVECTION WITHOUT THE THERMAL COMPONENT. NO CHANGES
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT FROM
NORTHERN CA AND SW OREGON FIRES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING CU DEVELOPING
ACROSS SE OREGON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE...OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AT 20Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
NEVADA BORDER THIS EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES DRY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH SUNSET. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE...NEAR SEATTLE AT 20Z...WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO LATE THIS EVENING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. SATELLITE ALSO
SHOWING A THICK SMOKE LAYER MOVING OVER THE SW IDAHO VALLEYS AT
20Z. THIS SMOKE LAYER COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE 90 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. COLD FRONT REACHES BURNS AND BAKER AROUND
03Z SATURDAY /FRIDAY NIGHT/ AND THEN BOISE AROUND 06Z /MIDNIGHT/.
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD THE FRONT ACROSS SW IDAHO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE NEVADA/IDAHO BORDER AROUND
00Z AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS BY 03Z. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
MARGINAL SO STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY BETWEEN 03Z /9PM/ AND 06Z
/MIDNIGHT/ FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ENDING EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP FROM 90S IN
THE VALLEY ON FRIDAY TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
/EXCEPT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY/. THE FLOW
WILL FLATTEN AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING IN WESTERN CANADA. THIS CHANGE
IN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW



000
FXUS65 KBOI 290215
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
815 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER IN MALHEUR AND SOUTHWEST OWYHEE COUNTIES.
THESE ARE FORMING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS NRN CA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THERE IS INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
MAINTAIN CONVECTION WITHOUT THE THERMAL COMPONENT. NO CHANGES
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT FROM
NORTHERN CA AND SW OREGON FIRES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING CU DEVELOPING
ACROSS SE OREGON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE...OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AT 20Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
NEVADA BORDER THIS EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES DRY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH SUNSET. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE...NEAR SEATTLE AT 20Z...WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO LATE THIS EVENING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. SATELLITE ALSO
SHOWING A THICK SMOKE LAYER MOVING OVER THE SW IDAHO VALLEYS AT
20Z. THIS SMOKE LAYER COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE 90 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. COLD FRONT REACHES BURNS AND BAKER AROUND
03Z SATURDAY /FRIDAY NIGHT/ AND THEN BOISE AROUND 06Z /MIDNIGHT/.
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD THE FRONT ACROSS SW IDAHO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE NEVADA/IDAHO BORDER AROUND
00Z AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS BY 03Z. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
MARGINAL SO STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY BETWEEN 03Z /9PM/ AND 06Z
/MIDNIGHT/ FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ENDING EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP FROM 90S IN
THE VALLEY ON FRIDAY TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
/EXCEPT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY/. THE FLOW
WILL FLATTEN AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING IN WESTERN CANADA. THIS CHANGE
IN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW




000
FXUS66 KPDT 282256 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
356 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MAIN IMPACTS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS. SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
AND BLUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. HIGHS SATURDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY. FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  94

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GIVE US A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ASHORE WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY GOING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. BY TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FASTER ECMWF HAS IT MOVING
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY WHILE THE SLOWER GFS MAINTAINS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE LEFT THAT FOR NOW. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS A SHARP TROUGH OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS
IS STILL DEVELOPING THE TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BUT IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT
AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND THE GFS HAS IT CENTERED OVER PUGET
SOUND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE GFS
HAS THEM STILL CONFINED TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10
TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW 15 KTS AROUND 04Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING
AGAIN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AFTER 21Z. PERRY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LOWERING INTO THE TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE COLUMBIA DESCHUTES PLATEAU.  THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY
AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20S.  WINDS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY TOMORROW AS WELL...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT A WATCH OR WARNING.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  82  53  74 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  58  85  57  76 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  55  86  56  79 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  54  81  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
HRI  55  85  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  53  76  51  72 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  46  81  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  83  51  70 /   0  10  20  20
GCD  47  84  48  71 /   0  10  20  10
DLS  56  79  55  76 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/83/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 282256 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
356 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MAIN IMPACTS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS. SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
AND BLUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. HIGHS SATURDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY. FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  94

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GIVE US A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ASHORE WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY GOING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. BY TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FASTER ECMWF HAS IT MOVING
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY WHILE THE SLOWER GFS MAINTAINS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE LEFT THAT FOR NOW. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS A SHARP TROUGH OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS
IS STILL DEVELOPING THE TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BUT IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT
AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND THE GFS HAS IT CENTERED OVER PUGET
SOUND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE GFS
HAS THEM STILL CONFINED TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10
TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW 15 KTS AROUND 04Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING
AGAIN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AFTER 21Z. PERRY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LOWERING INTO THE TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE COLUMBIA DESCHUTES PLATEAU.  THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY
AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20S.  WINDS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY TOMORROW AS WELL...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT A WATCH OR WARNING.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  82  53  74 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  58  85  57  76 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  55  86  56  79 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  54  81  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
HRI  55  85  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  53  76  51  72 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  46  81  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  83  51  70 /   0  10  20  20
GCD  47  84  48  71 /   0  10  20  10
DLS  56  79  55  76 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/83/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 282256 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
356 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MAIN IMPACTS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS. SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
AND BLUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. HIGHS SATURDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY. FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  94

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GIVE US A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ASHORE WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY GOING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. BY TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FASTER ECMWF HAS IT MOVING
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY WHILE THE SLOWER GFS MAINTAINS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE LEFT THAT FOR NOW. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS A SHARP TROUGH OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS
IS STILL DEVELOPING THE TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BUT IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT
AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND THE GFS HAS IT CENTERED OVER PUGET
SOUND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE GFS
HAS THEM STILL CONFINED TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10
TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW 15 KTS AROUND 04Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING
AGAIN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AFTER 21Z. PERRY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LOWERING INTO THE TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE COLUMBIA DESCHUTES PLATEAU.  THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY
AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20S.  WINDS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY TOMORROW AS WELL...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT A WATCH OR WARNING.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  82  53  74 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  58  85  57  76 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  55  86  56  79 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  54  81  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
HRI  55  85  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  53  76  51  72 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  46  81  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  83  51  70 /   0  10  20  20
GCD  47  84  48  71 /   0  10  20  10
DLS  56  79  55  76 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/83/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 282256 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
356 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MAIN IMPACTS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS. SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
AND BLUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. HIGHS SATURDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY. FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  94

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GIVE US A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ASHORE WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY GOING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. BY TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FASTER ECMWF HAS IT MOVING
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY WHILE THE SLOWER GFS MAINTAINS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE LEFT THAT FOR NOW. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS A SHARP TROUGH OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS
IS STILL DEVELOPING THE TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BUT IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT
AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND THE GFS HAS IT CENTERED OVER PUGET
SOUND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE GFS
HAS THEM STILL CONFINED TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10
TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW 15 KTS AROUND 04Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING
AGAIN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AFTER 21Z. PERRY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LOWERING INTO THE TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE COLUMBIA DESCHUTES PLATEAU.  THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY
AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20S.  WINDS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY TOMORROW AS WELL...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT A WATCH OR WARNING.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  82  53  74 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  58  85  57  76 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  55  86  56  79 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  54  81  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
HRI  55  85  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  53  76  51  72 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  46  81  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  83  51  70 /   0  10  20  20
GCD  47  84  48  71 /   0  10  20  10
DLS  56  79  55  76 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/83/83







000
FXUS66 KMFR 282203
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
303 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE RELATIVELY MINOR. THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND IS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WITHOUT
ANY PRECIPITATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHILE ANOTHER BROADER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA. TOGETHER THEY HAVE FLATTENED/WEAKENED THE STRONG RIDGE
THAT REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE HAD
BROUGHT NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING AROUND
2 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE COOLING WILL BECOME A
TREND ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WITH MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING FOR THE
WEEKEND.

BESIDES THE COOLING TREND, THERE IS ALSO A TREND OF INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS INTO
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH THIS EVENING
AND THEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MEANTIME, WEST SIDE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BUT A FEW TO
SEVERAL MPH SLOWER. THE STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT THEN ANOTHER
DRY FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY. THESE FRONTS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAINLY TO THE COAST AND UMPQUA
VALLEY. I HAVE TAKEN OUT A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY
MORNING AT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO DUE TO THE EXPECTED
SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE, ONLY EXTENDING UP TO 925 MB. BUT THE
SECOND PUSH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER, EXTENDING TO
900MB AND DEEP ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF PATCHY COASTAL
DRIZZLE. ON BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT, LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD FROM THE COAST INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY, BUT WITH A MARINE
LAYER THAT IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO MAKE IT OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING A DRIER
NORTH TO NORTHEAST RATHER THAN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A
DECREASE IN BOTH THE EXTENT OF COASTAL STRATUS AND INLAND
INTRUSION INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BE FAR OFFSHORE FROM CALIFORNIA ON THE WEEKEND THEN BUILD EAST TO
THE COAST ON LABOR DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE NORTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A MARINE PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO SUNDAY NIGHT THAT IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
INLAND TUESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE
NOTICEABLY AFTER TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER, FASTER,
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT MID-WEEK. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE CONTINUED VERY WARM AND
DRY FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST WILL BURN OFF AROUND 21Z BUT IFR CIGS WILL RETURN
TONIGHT AS FLOW TURNS INCREASING ONSHORE. WE COULD EVEN SEE LIFR IN
BOTH VIS AND CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM LAKEVIEW OREGON EAST INTO HARNEY COUNTY AFTER 1500. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THU 28 AUG 2014...AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
SLOWLY WEAKENS, SMALL CRAFT  CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING
NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS TO
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. -SVEN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/MND/SBN






000
FXUS66 KMFR 282203
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
303 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE RELATIVELY MINOR. THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND IS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WITHOUT
ANY PRECIPITATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHILE ANOTHER BROADER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA. TOGETHER THEY HAVE FLATTENED/WEAKENED THE STRONG RIDGE
THAT REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE HAD
BROUGHT NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING AROUND
2 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE COOLING WILL BECOME A
TREND ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WITH MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING FOR THE
WEEKEND.

BESIDES THE COOLING TREND, THERE IS ALSO A TREND OF INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS INTO
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH THIS EVENING
AND THEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MEANTIME, WEST SIDE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BUT A FEW TO
SEVERAL MPH SLOWER. THE STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT THEN ANOTHER
DRY FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY. THESE FRONTS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAINLY TO THE COAST AND UMPQUA
VALLEY. I HAVE TAKEN OUT A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE ON FRIDAY
MORNING AT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO DUE TO THE EXPECTED
SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE, ONLY EXTENDING UP TO 925 MB. BUT THE
SECOND PUSH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER, EXTENDING TO
900MB AND DEEP ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF PATCHY COASTAL
DRIZZLE. ON BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT, LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD FROM THE COAST INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY, BUT WITH A MARINE
LAYER THAT IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO MAKE IT OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING A DRIER
NORTH TO NORTHEAST RATHER THAN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A
DECREASE IN BOTH THE EXTENT OF COASTAL STRATUS AND INLAND
INTRUSION INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BE FAR OFFSHORE FROM CALIFORNIA ON THE WEEKEND THEN BUILD EAST TO
THE COAST ON LABOR DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE NORTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A MARINE PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO SUNDAY NIGHT THAT IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
INLAND TUESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE
NOTICEABLY AFTER TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER, FASTER,
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT MID-WEEK. WE HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE CONTINUED VERY WARM AND
DRY FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST WILL BURN OFF AROUND 21Z BUT IFR CIGS WILL RETURN
TONIGHT AS FLOW TURNS INCREASING ONSHORE. WE COULD EVEN SEE LIFR IN
BOTH VIS AND CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM LAKEVIEW OREGON EAST INTO HARNEY COUNTY AFTER 1500. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THU 28 AUG 2014...AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
SLOWLY WEAKENS, SMALL CRAFT  CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING
NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS TO
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. -SVEN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/MND/SBN







000
FXUS66 KPQR 282142
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
242 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LINE OF CIRRUS DENOTING A VERY WEAK FRONT COULD BE
SEEN EARLIER TODAY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND CAN STILL
FAINTLY BE MADE OUT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE STRETCHING FROM ABOUT
HERMISTON BACK TO EUGENE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT BROUGHT ESSENTIALLY NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES. BEHIND THE FRONT...MARINE PUSH TONIGHT
WILL BE STRONGER AND BRING CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT ALSO
COOL MARINE AIR. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING
AND THEN HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE  COOLER THAN EARLIER THIS
WEEK.

A STRONGER FRONT..CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN BC COAST...COMES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WITH SOME SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EAST OF
THE COAST RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES ANYWAY FOLLOWING THE THOUGHT THAT ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL ONLY INCREASE AN ALREADY EXISTING CHANCE OF
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE THE EXPECTED PRECIP TYPE FOR ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. BOWEN

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATES WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST HAVE LIFTED TO A SCATTERED DECK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MARINE STRATUS WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE COAST AFTER 02Z-03Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND PUSH
FURTHER INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND MOST OF
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MVFR CIGS 11Z-13Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 282142
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
242 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LINE OF CIRRUS DENOTING A VERY WEAK FRONT COULD BE
SEEN EARLIER TODAY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND CAN STILL
FAINTLY BE MADE OUT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE STRETCHING FROM ABOUT
HERMISTON BACK TO EUGENE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT BROUGHT ESSENTIALLY NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES. BEHIND THE FRONT...MARINE PUSH TONIGHT
WILL BE STRONGER AND BRING CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT ALSO
COOL MARINE AIR. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING
AND THEN HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE  COOLER THAN EARLIER THIS
WEEK.

A STRONGER FRONT..CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN BC COAST...COMES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WITH SOME SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EAST OF
THE COAST RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES ANYWAY FOLLOWING THE THOUGHT THAT ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL ONLY INCREASE AN ALREADY EXISTING CHANCE OF
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE THE EXPECTED PRECIP TYPE FOR ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. BOWEN

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATES WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST HAVE LIFTED TO A SCATTERED DECK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MARINE STRATUS WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE COAST AFTER 02Z-03Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND PUSH
FURTHER INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND MOST OF
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MVFR CIGS 11Z-13Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 282142
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
242 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LINE OF CIRRUS DENOTING A VERY WEAK FRONT COULD BE
SEEN EARLIER TODAY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND CAN STILL
FAINTLY BE MADE OUT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE STRETCHING FROM ABOUT
HERMISTON BACK TO EUGENE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT BROUGHT ESSENTIALLY NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES. BEHIND THE FRONT...MARINE PUSH TONIGHT
WILL BE STRONGER AND BRING CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT ALSO
COOL MARINE AIR. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING
AND THEN HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE  COOLER THAN EARLIER THIS
WEEK.

A STRONGER FRONT..CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN BC COAST...COMES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WITH SOME SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EAST OF
THE COAST RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES ANYWAY FOLLOWING THE THOUGHT THAT ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL ONLY INCREASE AN ALREADY EXISTING CHANCE OF
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE THE EXPECTED PRECIP TYPE FOR ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. BOWEN

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATES WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST HAVE LIFTED TO A SCATTERED DECK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MARINE STRATUS WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE COAST AFTER 02Z-03Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND PUSH
FURTHER INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND MOST OF
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MVFR CIGS 11Z-13Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 282142
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
242 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LINE OF CIRRUS DENOTING A VERY WEAK FRONT COULD BE
SEEN EARLIER TODAY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND CAN STILL
FAINTLY BE MADE OUT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE STRETCHING FROM ABOUT
HERMISTON BACK TO EUGENE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT BROUGHT ESSENTIALLY NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES. BEHIND THE FRONT...MARINE PUSH TONIGHT
WILL BE STRONGER AND BRING CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT ALSO
COOL MARINE AIR. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING
AND THEN HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE  COOLER THAN EARLIER THIS
WEEK.

A STRONGER FRONT..CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN BC COAST...COMES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WITH SOME SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EAST OF
THE COAST RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES ANYWAY FOLLOWING THE THOUGHT THAT ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL ONLY INCREASE AN ALREADY EXISTING CHANCE OF
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE THE EXPECTED PRECIP TYPE FOR ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. BOWEN

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...TEMPERATES WILL STILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON BORDER AND INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /64
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST HAVE LIFTED TO A SCATTERED DECK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MARINE STRATUS WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE COAST AFTER 02Z-03Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND PUSH
FURTHER INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND MOST OF
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE TERMINAL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MVFR CIGS 11Z-13Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 282132
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MAIN IMPACTS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS. SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
AND BLUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. HIGHS SATURDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY. FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  94

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GIVE US A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ASHORE WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY GOING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. BY TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FASTER ECMWF HAS IT MOVING
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY WHILE THE SLOWER GFS MAINTAINS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE LEFT THAT FOR NOW. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS A SHARP TROUGH OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS
IS STILL DEVELOPING THE TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BUT IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT
AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND THE GFS HAS IT CENTERED OVER PUGET
SOUND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE GFS
HAS THEM STILL CONFINED TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS PRESENT AT
TIMES ABOVE 20000 FEET AGL AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND REACH 15 TO 25
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KDLS. OTHER TAF SITES WILL REACH 10 TO
20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND DROP
BELOW 15 KTS AROUND 04Z. PERRY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LOWERING INTO THE TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE COLUMBIA DESCHUTES PLATEAU.  THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY
AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20S.  WINDS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY TOMORROW AS WELL...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT A WATCH OR WARNING.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  82  53  74 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  58  85  57  76 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  55  86  56  79 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  54  81  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
HRI  55  85  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  53  76  51  72 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  46  81  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  83  51  70 /   0  10  20  20
GCD  47  84  48  71 /   0  10  20  10
DLS  56  79  55  76 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/83/83





000
FXUS66 KPDT 282132
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MAIN IMPACTS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS. SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
AND BLUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. HIGHS SATURDAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY. FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  94

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GIVE US A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ASHORE WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY GOING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. BY TUESDAY MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FASTER ECMWF HAS IT MOVING
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA TUESDAY WHILE THE SLOWER GFS MAINTAINS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE LEFT THAT FOR NOW. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS A SHARP TROUGH OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS
IS STILL DEVELOPING THE TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BUT IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT
AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND THE GFS HAS IT CENTERED OVER PUGET
SOUND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE GFS
HAS THEM STILL CONFINED TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS PRESENT AT
TIMES ABOVE 20000 FEET AGL AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND REACH 15 TO 25
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KDLS. OTHER TAF SITES WILL REACH 10 TO
20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND DROP
BELOW 15 KTS AROUND 04Z. PERRY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LOWERING INTO THE TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE COLUMBIA DESCHUTES PLATEAU.  THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY
AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20S.  WINDS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY TOMORROW AS WELL...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT A WATCH OR WARNING.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  82  53  74 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  58  85  57  76 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  55  86  56  79 /   0   0  10  10
YKM  54  81  52  75 /   0   0  10  10
HRI  55  85  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELN  53  76  51  72 /   0  10  10  10
RDM  46  81  47  71 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  83  51  70 /   0  10  20  20
GCD  47  84  48  71 /   0  10  20  10
DLS  56  79  55  76 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/83/83






000
FXUS65 KBOI 282055
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
255 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING CU DEVELOPING
ACROSS SE OREGON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE...OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AT 20Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
NEVADA BORDER THIS EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES DRY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH SUNSET. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE...NEAR SEATTLE AT 20Z...WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO LATE THIS EVENING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. SATELLITE ALSO
SHOWING A THICK SMOKE LAYER MOVING OVER THE SW IDAHO VALLEYS AT
20Z. THIS SMOKE LAYER COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE 90 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. COLD FRONT REACHES BURNS AND BAKER AROUND
03Z SATURDAY /FRIDAY NIGHT/ AND THEN BOISE AROUND 06Z /MIDNIGHT/.
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD THE FRONT ACROSS SW IDAHO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE NEVADA/IDAHO BORDER AROUND
00Z AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS BY 03Z. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
MARGINAL SO STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY BETWEEN 03Z /9PM/ AND 06Z
/MIDNIGHT/ FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURAY MORNING ENDING EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP FROM 90S IN THE VALLEY
ON FRIDAY TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
/EXCEPT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY/. THE FLOW
WILL FLATTEN AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING IN WESTERN CANADA. THIS CHANGE
IN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. PATCHY MVFR SMOKE IS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
NORTH OF A KBKE-KMYL LINE UNTIL 06Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS IN SOUTHERN HARNEY COUNTY /NOT INCLUDING
KBNO/ AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY UNTIL 03Z. SURFACE WINDS...
WESTERLY 5-15 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...WESTERLY 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW




000
FXUS65 KBOI 282055
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
255 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING CU DEVELOPING
ACROSS SE OREGON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE...OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AT 20Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
NEVADA BORDER THIS EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES DRY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH SUNSET. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE...NEAR SEATTLE AT 20Z...WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO LATE THIS EVENING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. SATELLITE ALSO
SHOWING A THICK SMOKE LAYER MOVING OVER THE SW IDAHO VALLEYS AT
20Z. THIS SMOKE LAYER COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE 90 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. COLD FRONT REACHES BURNS AND BAKER AROUND
03Z SATURDAY /FRIDAY NIGHT/ AND THEN BOISE AROUND 06Z /MIDNIGHT/.
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD THE FRONT ACROSS SW IDAHO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE NEVADA/IDAHO BORDER AROUND
00Z AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS BY 03Z. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
MARGINAL SO STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY BETWEEN 03Z /9PM/ AND 06Z
/MIDNIGHT/ FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURAY MORNING ENDING EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP FROM 90S IN THE VALLEY
ON FRIDAY TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
/EXCEPT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY/. THE FLOW
WILL FLATTEN AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING IN WESTERN CANADA. THIS CHANGE
IN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. PATCHY MVFR SMOKE IS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
NORTH OF A KBKE-KMYL LINE UNTIL 06Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS IN SOUTHERN HARNEY COUNTY /NOT INCLUDING
KBNO/ AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY UNTIL 03Z. SURFACE WINDS...
WESTERLY 5-15 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...WESTERLY 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW



000
FXUS66 KPQR 281642
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
942 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A THIN MARINE
STRATUS LAYER ALONG THE COAST PARTICULARLY AROUND THE INLETS AND
BAYS...WITH THE STRATUS PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE FOOTHILLS ALONG THE
COLUMBIA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INLAND THIS MORNING...MOSTLY
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL
BRUSH NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING AND MOST
EVERYONE WILL WAKE UP TO  CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWS
TONIGHT MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. NOT A
LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE MODELS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN FRIDAY WITH CHANCE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL USHER IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF EVEN COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
BOWEN

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST THIS
MORNING BRINGING PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COAST.
THE STRATUS WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BY MID
TO LATE MORNING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. THE LOW MARINE CLOUDS MOVED
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO KELSO AND THE PORTLAND-TROUTDALE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS. THE MARINE CLOUDS OVER THE INLAND AREA
WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AROUND 18Z-19Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OUT ON THE COAST...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE MVFR ON THE NORTH COAST MOST OF THE DAY AND VFR FROM
CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH BY LATE MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST REGION THIS EVENING. MARINE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH
FURTHER INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING THROUGH
18Z....THEN VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281642
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
942 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A THIN MARINE
STRATUS LAYER ALONG THE COAST PARTICULARLY AROUND THE INLETS AND
BAYS...WITH THE STRATUS PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE FOOTHILLS ALONG THE
COLUMBIA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INLAND THIS MORNING...MOSTLY
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL
BRUSH NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING AND MOST
EVERYONE WILL WAKE UP TO  CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWS
TONIGHT MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. NOT A
LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE MODELS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN FRIDAY WITH CHANCE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL USHER IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF EVEN COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
BOWEN

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST THIS
MORNING BRINGING PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COAST.
THE STRATUS WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BY MID
TO LATE MORNING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. THE LOW MARINE CLOUDS MOVED
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO KELSO AND THE PORTLAND-TROUTDALE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS. THE MARINE CLOUDS OVER THE INLAND AREA
WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AROUND 18Z-19Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OUT ON THE COAST...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE MVFR ON THE NORTH COAST MOST OF THE DAY AND VFR FROM
CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH BY LATE MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST REGION THIS EVENING. MARINE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH
FURTHER INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING THROUGH
18Z....THEN VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281642
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
942 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A THIN MARINE
STRATUS LAYER ALONG THE COAST PARTICULARLY AROUND THE INLETS AND
BAYS...WITH THE STRATUS PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE FOOTHILLS ALONG THE
COLUMBIA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INLAND THIS MORNING...MOSTLY
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL
BRUSH NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING AND MOST
EVERYONE WILL WAKE UP TO  CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWS
TONIGHT MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. NOT A
LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE MODELS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN FRIDAY WITH CHANCE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL USHER IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF EVEN COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
BOWEN

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST THIS
MORNING BRINGING PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COAST.
THE STRATUS WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BY MID
TO LATE MORNING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. THE LOW MARINE CLOUDS MOVED
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO KELSO AND THE PORTLAND-TROUTDALE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS. THE MARINE CLOUDS OVER THE INLAND AREA
WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AROUND 18Z-19Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OUT ON THE COAST...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE MVFR ON THE NORTH COAST MOST OF THE DAY AND VFR FROM
CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH BY LATE MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST REGION THIS EVENING. MARINE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH
FURTHER INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING THROUGH
18Z....THEN VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281642
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
942 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A THIN MARINE
STRATUS LAYER ALONG THE COAST PARTICULARLY AROUND THE INLETS AND
BAYS...WITH THE STRATUS PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE FOOTHILLS ALONG THE
COLUMBIA. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INLAND THIS MORNING...MOSTLY
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL
BRUSH NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING AND MOST
EVERYONE WILL WAKE UP TO  CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWS
TONIGHT MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. NOT A
LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE MODELS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN FRIDAY WITH CHANCE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL USHER IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF EVEN COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
BOWEN

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MARINE CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST THIS
MORNING BRINGING PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COAST.
THE STRATUS WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BY MID
TO LATE MORNING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. THE LOW MARINE CLOUDS MOVED
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO KELSO AND THE PORTLAND-TROUTDALE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS. THE MARINE CLOUDS OVER THE INLAND AREA
WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE AROUND 18Z-19Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OUT ON THE COAST...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE MVFR ON THE NORTH COAST MOST OF THE DAY AND VFR FROM
CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH BY LATE MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST REGION THIS EVENING. MARINE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH
FURTHER INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LOW MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING THROUGH
18Z....THEN VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TW

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 281632
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
932 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THIS MORNING TO ADD
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST LAKE
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TROUGH IS OFFSHORE FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND HAS
BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AMOUNTS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE MEAGER BUT AN EMBEDD SHORTWAVE
AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY AT 10 TO 15 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES.

A TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ON FRIDAY. A COOLING
TREND WILL BEGIN AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL TREND
STRONGER ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE WEST
SIDE THAT WILL BE WINDY AT 20 TO 25 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE EAST OF
THE EAST SIDE. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN ON ANY DAY DURING THE PAST TWO
WEEKS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
OF A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH COOLING AT MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF LIFR AND IFR
STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THEN EXPECT CLEARING TO VFR FOR
MOST COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM CAPE BLANCO
NORTH. THEN IFR WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY...AND AREAS OF HAZE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. -CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT THU 28 AUG 2014...AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS TODAY, SMALL CRAFT  CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH MOVES INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EAST AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 46N/135W. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ZIP THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES AND TEMPERATURES THERE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
WEST OF THE CASCADES WHICH SHOULD KNOCK DOWN MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ON AVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL
PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL. THE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS
CONFINED TO THE COAST AND COQUILLE BASIN AND NOT EXPECTING THIS TO
MOVE MUCH FURTHER INLAND. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SOUTHERN OREGON.

ANOTHER, BUT STRONGER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COOL, STABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE AS COOL AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES.
THE TYPE OF PATTERN SETTING UP THIS WEEKEND IS NORMALLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE WON`T GET
ANYTHING WHICH IS THE GOOD NEWS. THE NOT SO GOOD NEWS IS THAT GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN CAL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS
SHOW 600 MB WINDS AROUND 25 KTS SATURDAY AND 30-40 KTS SUNDAY IN
LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
SURFACE HEATING, SUSPECT SOME THOSE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIXED DOWN
NEAR THE SURFACE. GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN FOR THE CURRENT FIRES IN OUR REGION BECAUSE IT COULD BE
WINDY ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE SPREAD CONCERNS GIVEN THE DRYNESS WERE
EXPERIENCING.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL END UP BELOW NORMAL, BUT THE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S AND LOWER TO
MID 70S EAST OF THE CASCADES.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE, THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
HEATING UP, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN, THEREFORE WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG.

BEYOND LABOR DAY, THE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT SHOWING
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLING AND THE
POTENTIAL OR GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN
CAL. -PETRUCELLI

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF LIFR AND IFR
STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING. INLAND...IFR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...PERHAPS BRINGING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF STRATUS AS FAR
INLAND AS ROSEBURG AROUND 13Z-15Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY...AND
AREAS OF HAZE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. -BPN

MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT WED 26 AUG 2014...AS THE THERMAL
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS , SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING.WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY PERSIST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MODERATE  NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN/SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/MND/FJB







000
FXUS66 KMFR 281632
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
932 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THIS MORNING TO ADD
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST LAKE
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TROUGH IS OFFSHORE FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND HAS
BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AMOUNTS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE MEAGER BUT AN EMBEDD SHORTWAVE
AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY AT 10 TO 15 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES.

A TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ON FRIDAY. A COOLING
TREND WILL BEGIN AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL TREND
STRONGER ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE WEST
SIDE THAT WILL BE WINDY AT 20 TO 25 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE EAST OF
THE EAST SIDE. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN ON ANY DAY DURING THE PAST TWO
WEEKS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
OF A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH COOLING AT MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF LIFR AND IFR
STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THEN EXPECT CLEARING TO VFR FOR
MOST COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM CAPE BLANCO
NORTH. THEN IFR WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY...AND AREAS OF HAZE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. -CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT THU 28 AUG 2014...AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS TODAY, SMALL CRAFT  CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH MOVES INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EAST AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 46N/135W. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ZIP THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES AND TEMPERATURES THERE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
WEST OF THE CASCADES WHICH SHOULD KNOCK DOWN MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ON AVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL
PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL. THE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS
CONFINED TO THE COAST AND COQUILLE BASIN AND NOT EXPECTING THIS TO
MOVE MUCH FURTHER INLAND. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SOUTHERN OREGON.

ANOTHER, BUT STRONGER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COOL, STABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE AS COOL AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES.
THE TYPE OF PATTERN SETTING UP THIS WEEKEND IS NORMALLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE WON`T GET
ANYTHING WHICH IS THE GOOD NEWS. THE NOT SO GOOD NEWS IS THAT GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN CAL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS
SHOW 600 MB WINDS AROUND 25 KTS SATURDAY AND 30-40 KTS SUNDAY IN
LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
SURFACE HEATING, SUSPECT SOME THOSE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIXED DOWN
NEAR THE SURFACE. GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN FOR THE CURRENT FIRES IN OUR REGION BECAUSE IT COULD BE
WINDY ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE SPREAD CONCERNS GIVEN THE DRYNESS WERE
EXPERIENCING.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL END UP BELOW NORMAL, BUT THE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S AND LOWER TO
MID 70S EAST OF THE CASCADES.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE, THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
HEATING UP, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN, THEREFORE WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG.

BEYOND LABOR DAY, THE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT SHOWING
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLING AND THE
POTENTIAL OR GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN
CAL. -PETRUCELLI

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF LIFR AND IFR
STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING. INLAND...IFR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...PERHAPS BRINGING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF STRATUS AS FAR
INLAND AS ROSEBURG AROUND 13Z-15Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY...AND
AREAS OF HAZE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. -BPN

MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT WED 26 AUG 2014...AS THE THERMAL
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS , SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING.WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY PERSIST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MODERATE  NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN/SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/MND/FJB







000
FXUS66 KMFR 281632
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
932 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THIS MORNING TO ADD
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST LAKE
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TROUGH IS OFFSHORE FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND HAS
BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AMOUNTS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE MEAGER BUT AN EMBEDD SHORTWAVE
AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY AT 10 TO 15 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES.

A TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ON FRIDAY. A COOLING
TREND WILL BEGIN AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL TREND
STRONGER ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE WEST
SIDE THAT WILL BE WINDY AT 20 TO 25 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE EAST OF
THE EAST SIDE. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN ON ANY DAY DURING THE PAST TWO
WEEKS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
OF A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH COOLING AT MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF LIFR AND IFR
STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THEN EXPECT CLEARING TO VFR FOR
MOST COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM CAPE BLANCO
NORTH. THEN IFR WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY...AND AREAS OF HAZE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. -CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT THU 28 AUG 2014...AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS TODAY, SMALL CRAFT  CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH MOVES INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EAST AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 46N/135W. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ZIP THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES AND TEMPERATURES THERE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
WEST OF THE CASCADES WHICH SHOULD KNOCK DOWN MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ON AVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL
PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL. THE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS
CONFINED TO THE COAST AND COQUILLE BASIN AND NOT EXPECTING THIS TO
MOVE MUCH FURTHER INLAND. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SOUTHERN OREGON.

ANOTHER, BUT STRONGER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COOL, STABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE AS COOL AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES.
THE TYPE OF PATTERN SETTING UP THIS WEEKEND IS NORMALLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE WON`T GET
ANYTHING WHICH IS THE GOOD NEWS. THE NOT SO GOOD NEWS IS THAT GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN CAL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS
SHOW 600 MB WINDS AROUND 25 KTS SATURDAY AND 30-40 KTS SUNDAY IN
LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
SURFACE HEATING, SUSPECT SOME THOSE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIXED DOWN
NEAR THE SURFACE. GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN FOR THE CURRENT FIRES IN OUR REGION BECAUSE IT COULD BE
WINDY ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE SPREAD CONCERNS GIVEN THE DRYNESS WERE
EXPERIENCING.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL END UP BELOW NORMAL, BUT THE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S AND LOWER TO
MID 70S EAST OF THE CASCADES.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE, THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
HEATING UP, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN, THEREFORE WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG.

BEYOND LABOR DAY, THE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT SHOWING
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLING AND THE
POTENTIAL OR GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN
CAL. -PETRUCELLI

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF LIFR AND IFR
STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING. INLAND...IFR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...PERHAPS BRINGING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF STRATUS AS FAR
INLAND AS ROSEBURG AROUND 13Z-15Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY...AND
AREAS OF HAZE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. -BPN

MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT WED 26 AUG 2014...AS THE THERMAL
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS , SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING.WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY PERSIST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MODERATE  NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN/SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/MND/FJB







000
FXUS66 KMFR 281632
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
932 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THIS MORNING TO ADD
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST LAKE
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TROUGH IS OFFSHORE FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND HAS
BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AMOUNTS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE MEAGER BUT AN EMBEDD SHORTWAVE
AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY AT 10 TO 15 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES.

A TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ON FRIDAY. A COOLING
TREND WILL BEGIN AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL TREND
STRONGER ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE WEST
SIDE THAT WILL BE WINDY AT 20 TO 25 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE EAST OF
THE EAST SIDE. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN ON ANY DAY DURING THE PAST TWO
WEEKS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
OF A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH COOLING AT MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF LIFR AND IFR
STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THEN EXPECT CLEARING TO VFR FOR
MOST COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM CAPE BLANCO
NORTH. THEN IFR WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY...AND AREAS OF HAZE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. -CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT THU 28 AUG 2014...AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS TODAY, SMALL CRAFT  CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH MOVES INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EAST AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 46N/135W. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ZIP THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES AND TEMPERATURES THERE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
WEST OF THE CASCADES WHICH SHOULD KNOCK DOWN MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ON AVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL
PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL. THE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS
CONFINED TO THE COAST AND COQUILLE BASIN AND NOT EXPECTING THIS TO
MOVE MUCH FURTHER INLAND. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SOUTHERN OREGON.

ANOTHER, BUT STRONGER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COOL, STABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE AS COOL AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES.
THE TYPE OF PATTERN SETTING UP THIS WEEKEND IS NORMALLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE WON`T GET
ANYTHING WHICH IS THE GOOD NEWS. THE NOT SO GOOD NEWS IS THAT GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN CAL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS
SHOW 600 MB WINDS AROUND 25 KTS SATURDAY AND 30-40 KTS SUNDAY IN
LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
SURFACE HEATING, SUSPECT SOME THOSE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIXED DOWN
NEAR THE SURFACE. GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN FOR THE CURRENT FIRES IN OUR REGION BECAUSE IT COULD BE
WINDY ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE SPREAD CONCERNS GIVEN THE DRYNESS WERE
EXPERIENCING.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL END UP BELOW NORMAL, BUT THE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S AND LOWER TO
MID 70S EAST OF THE CASCADES.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE, THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
HEATING UP, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN, THEREFORE WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG.

BEYOND LABOR DAY, THE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT SHOWING
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLING AND THE
POTENTIAL OR GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN
CAL. -PETRUCELLI

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF LIFR AND IFR
STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING. INLAND...IFR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...PERHAPS BRINGING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF STRATUS AS FAR
INLAND AS ROSEBURG AROUND 13Z-15Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY...AND
AREAS OF HAZE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. -BPN

MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT WED 26 AUG 2014...AS THE THERMAL
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS , SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING.WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY PERSIST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MODERATE  NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN/SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/MND/FJB







000
FXUS65 KBOI 281601
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1001 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL FEATURES OF NOTE WILL MAKE FOR A
CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON
COAST ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN TROPICAL MOISTURE. BOTH ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND REACH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A THICK SMOKE LAYER FROM
FIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS SE OREGON THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE EAST INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SMOKE LAYER LOOKS TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AT LEAST KEEPING THEM A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. AS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF AREA...BUT COULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS IS
ALREADY COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH HAS
PLENTY OF HIGH-BASED MOISTURE AND COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH ALONG
WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE OREGON/NEVADA BORDER. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN SE OREGON AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN
SW IDAHO. WILL ADDRESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL DRIFT E-NE INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO. PATCHY MVFR
SMOKE IS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 30
KNOTS IN SOUTHERN HARNEY COUNTY /NOT INCLUDING KBNO/ AND SOUTHERN
MALHEUR COUNTY AFTER 21Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY 5-15
KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY. MOST OF THE DAY...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WILL BE AHEAD OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A BAKER
CITY TO MCCALL LINE THIS EVENING...AND A MODERATE BREEZE AND
SLIGHT COOLING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
IDAHO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL BRING A COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ON SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS EASTERN
OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
FRIDAY/S HIGHS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 281601
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1001 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL FEATURES OF NOTE WILL MAKE FOR A
CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON
COAST ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN TROPICAL MOISTURE. BOTH ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND REACH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A THICK SMOKE LAYER FROM
FIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS SE OREGON THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE EAST INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SMOKE LAYER LOOKS TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AT LEAST KEEPING THEM A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. AS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF AREA...BUT COULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS IS
ALREADY COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH HAS
PLENTY OF HIGH-BASED MOISTURE AND COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH ALONG
WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE OREGON/NEVADA BORDER. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN SE OREGON AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN
SW IDAHO. WILL ADDRESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL DRIFT E-NE INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO. PATCHY MVFR
SMOKE IS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 30
KNOTS IN SOUTHERN HARNEY COUNTY /NOT INCLUDING KBNO/ AND SOUTHERN
MALHEUR COUNTY AFTER 21Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY 5-15
KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY. MOST OF THE DAY...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WILL BE AHEAD OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A BAKER
CITY TO MCCALL LINE THIS EVENING...AND A MODERATE BREEZE AND
SLIGHT COOLING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
IDAHO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL BRING A COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ON SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS EASTERN
OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
FRIDAY/S HIGHS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS66 KPDT 281540
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
840 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND COLUMBIA GORGE REGION
TODAY. COOLER PACIFIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH FOR BREEZY TO OCCASIONAL
WINDY CONDITIONS WEST OF WALLA WALLA TO PRINEVILLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  THIS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO NEAR
NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE BRINGS A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR.  WITH THE WESTERLY
FLOW ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CASCADES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE 20000 FEET AGL
AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS AT KDLS. OTHER TAF SITES WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW 15 KTS AROUND
04Z. PERRY


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 134 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE OR
INSTABILITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SO THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST WILL BE BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT AS THE MARINE
PUSH BECOMES ESTABLISHED RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RED FLAG EVENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN WIND AND COOLER MARINE AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE THE
MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN A TEMPERATURE COOL DOWN WILL BE FELT
IN THE WESTERN LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST
SLOPES. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE IN THESE
AREAS. IN EASTERN AREAS THE WINDS WILL NOT INCREASE THAT MUCH ON
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL AS MUCH EITHER. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BRING MORE INCREASING WINDS BUT ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COOL DOWN EVEN MORE
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS DROPPING TO ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER DUE TO
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENTS. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE FLOW WILL BUCKLE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THAT MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY WEST WINDS. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE BY ON THURSDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE PERIOD SOME OF THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
MAY SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZES OF THE SEASON. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE W-NW AT 12-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  89  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  90  61  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  93  58  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  88  56  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  92  57  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  83  55  75  51 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  87  47  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  86  49  82  49 /   0   0  10  10
GCD  87  49  83  47 /   0   0  10  10
DLS  85  59  80  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

79/83/79









000
FXUS66 KPDT 281540
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
840 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND COLUMBIA GORGE REGION
TODAY. COOLER PACIFIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH FOR BREEZY TO OCCASIONAL
WINDY CONDITIONS WEST OF WALLA WALLA TO PRINEVILLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  THIS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO NEAR
NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE BRINGS A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR.  WITH THE WESTERLY
FLOW ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CASCADES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE 20000 FEET AGL
AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS AT KDLS. OTHER TAF SITES WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW 15 KTS AROUND
04Z. PERRY


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 134 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE OR
INSTABILITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SO THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST WILL BE BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT AS THE MARINE
PUSH BECOMES ESTABLISHED RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RED FLAG EVENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN WIND AND COOLER MARINE AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE THE
MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN A TEMPERATURE COOL DOWN WILL BE FELT
IN THE WESTERN LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST
SLOPES. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE IN THESE
AREAS. IN EASTERN AREAS THE WINDS WILL NOT INCREASE THAT MUCH ON
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL AS MUCH EITHER. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BRING MORE INCREASING WINDS BUT ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COOL DOWN EVEN MORE
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS DROPPING TO ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER DUE TO
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENTS. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE FLOW WILL BUCKLE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THAT MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY WEST WINDS. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE BY ON THURSDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE PERIOD SOME OF THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
MAY SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZES OF THE SEASON. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE W-NW AT 12-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  89  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  90  61  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  93  58  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  88  56  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  92  57  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  83  55  75  51 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  87  47  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  86  49  82  49 /   0   0  10  10
GCD  87  49  83  47 /   0   0  10  10
DLS  85  59  80  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

79/83/79









000
FXUS66 KPDT 281540
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
840 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND COLUMBIA GORGE REGION
TODAY. COOLER PACIFIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH FOR BREEZY TO OCCASIONAL
WINDY CONDITIONS WEST OF WALLA WALLA TO PRINEVILLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  THIS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO NEAR
NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE BRINGS A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR.  WITH THE WESTERLY
FLOW ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CASCADES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE 20000 FEET AGL
AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS AT KDLS. OTHER TAF SITES WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW 15 KTS AROUND
04Z. PERRY


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 134 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE OR
INSTABILITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SO THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST WILL BE BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT AS THE MARINE
PUSH BECOMES ESTABLISHED RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RED FLAG EVENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN WIND AND COOLER MARINE AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE THE
MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN A TEMPERATURE COOL DOWN WILL BE FELT
IN THE WESTERN LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST
SLOPES. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE IN THESE
AREAS. IN EASTERN AREAS THE WINDS WILL NOT INCREASE THAT MUCH ON
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL AS MUCH EITHER. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BRING MORE INCREASING WINDS BUT ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COOL DOWN EVEN MORE
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS DROPPING TO ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER DUE TO
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENTS. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE FLOW WILL BUCKLE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THAT MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY WEST WINDS. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE BY ON THURSDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE PERIOD SOME OF THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
MAY SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZES OF THE SEASON. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE W-NW AT 12-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  89  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  90  61  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  93  58  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  88  56  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  92  57  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  83  55  75  51 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  87  47  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  86  49  82  49 /   0   0  10  10
GCD  87  49  83  47 /   0   0  10  10
DLS  85  59  80  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

79/83/79









000
FXUS66 KPDT 281540
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
840 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND COLUMBIA GORGE REGION
TODAY. COOLER PACIFIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH FOR BREEZY TO OCCASIONAL
WINDY CONDITIONS WEST OF WALLA WALLA TO PRINEVILLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  THIS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO NEAR
NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN TO BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE BRINGS A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR.  WITH THE WESTERLY
FLOW ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CASCADES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS PRESENT AT TIMES ABOVE 20000 FEET AGL
AND A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS AT KDLS. OTHER TAF SITES WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW 15 KTS AROUND
04Z. PERRY


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 134 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE OR
INSTABILITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SO THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST WILL BE BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT AS THE MARINE
PUSH BECOMES ESTABLISHED RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RED FLAG EVENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN WIND AND COOLER MARINE AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE THE
MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN A TEMPERATURE COOL DOWN WILL BE FELT
IN THE WESTERN LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST
SLOPES. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE IN THESE
AREAS. IN EASTERN AREAS THE WINDS WILL NOT INCREASE THAT MUCH ON
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL AS MUCH EITHER. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BRING MORE INCREASING WINDS BUT ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COOL DOWN EVEN MORE
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS DROPPING TO ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER DUE TO
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENTS. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE FLOW WILL BUCKLE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THAT MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY WEST WINDS. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE BY ON THURSDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE PERIOD SOME OF THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
MAY SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZES OF THE SEASON. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE W-NW AT 12-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  89  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  90  61  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  93  58  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  88  56  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  92  57  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  83  55  75  51 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  87  47  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  86  49  82  49 /   0   0  10  10
GCD  87  49  83  47 /   0   0  10  10
DLS  85  59  80  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

79/83/79









000
FXUS66 KPQR 281022
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
317 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THU AND FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...A SLOW PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PCPN.  THIS MORNING A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
BRINGING EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO THE COAST AND GAPS LEADING INLAND.
THERE IS SOME FOG BUT NOT QUIET AS THICK AS WED MORNING. STRATUS HAS
WORK UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO KELSO. CURRENT KAST-KPDX GRADIENT
IS DECREASING BELOW 2 MB SO IT MAY JUST MAKE IT TO THE PDX AND
VICINITY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WHILE THE COAST TOPS OUT IN THE MID
60S.

WATERVAPOR LOOP SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
MODELS TRACK INTO WESTERN B.C. ON FRIDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW
AND BRING SOME LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS.  AS THE LARGE TROUGH MOVES TO
WESTERN B.C. THE TRAILING END BRUSHES THE PACNW BRINGING LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON FRI...MAINLY TO THE NORTH COAST ZONES. THE TROUGH
FURTHER SAGS INTO THE PACNW ON SAT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. WITH THE DEEP MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE...AGAIN EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COAST AND THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  SIDE NOTE - OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO THE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND DROP BELOW 80.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS HAVE RESULTED IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INLAND
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KSPB AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR INLAND BY 18Z...BUT ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE COAST MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS FOR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IFR CIGS RETURN THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN LANE COUNTY DUE
TO WILDFIRES. STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH FURTHER INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AFT 13Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM SHOULD CLEAR
BY 18Z. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281022
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
317 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THU AND FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...A SLOW PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PCPN.  THIS MORNING A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
BRINGING EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO THE COAST AND GAPS LEADING INLAND.
THERE IS SOME FOG BUT NOT QUIET AS THICK AS WED MORNING. STRATUS HAS
WORK UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO KELSO. CURRENT KAST-KPDX GRADIENT
IS DECREASING BELOW 2 MB SO IT MAY JUST MAKE IT TO THE PDX AND
VICINITY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WHILE THE COAST TOPS OUT IN THE MID
60S.

WATERVAPOR LOOP SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
MODELS TRACK INTO WESTERN B.C. ON FRIDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW
AND BRING SOME LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS.  AS THE LARGE TROUGH MOVES TO
WESTERN B.C. THE TRAILING END BRUSHES THE PACNW BRINGING LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON FRI...MAINLY TO THE NORTH COAST ZONES. THE TROUGH
FURTHER SAGS INTO THE PACNW ON SAT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. WITH THE DEEP MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE...AGAIN EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COAST AND THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  SIDE NOTE - OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO THE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND DROP BELOW 80.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS HAVE RESULTED IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INLAND
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KSPB AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR INLAND BY 18Z...BUT ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE COAST MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS FOR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IFR CIGS RETURN THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN LANE COUNTY DUE
TO WILDFIRES. STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH FURTHER INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AFT 13Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM SHOULD CLEAR
BY 18Z. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 281022
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
317 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THU AND FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY...A SLOW PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PCPN.  THIS MORNING A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
BRINGING EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO THE COAST AND GAPS LEADING INLAND.
THERE IS SOME FOG BUT NOT QUIET AS THICK AS WED MORNING. STRATUS HAS
WORK UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER TO KELSO. CURRENT KAST-KPDX GRADIENT
IS DECREASING BELOW 2 MB SO IT MAY JUST MAKE IT TO THE PDX AND
VICINITY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WHILE THE COAST TOPS OUT IN THE MID
60S.

WATERVAPOR LOOP SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT
MODELS TRACK INTO WESTERN B.C. ON FRIDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW
AND BRING SOME LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS.  AS THE LARGE TROUGH MOVES TO
WESTERN B.C. THE TRAILING END BRUSHES THE PACNW BRINGING LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON FRI...MAINLY TO THE NORTH COAST ZONES. THE TROUGH
FURTHER SAGS INTO THE PACNW ON SAT WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. WITH THE DEEP MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE...AGAIN EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COAST AND THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  SIDE NOTE - OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO THE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND DROP BELOW 80.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...LOW MARINE CLOUDS HAVE RESULTED IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MARINE CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INLAND
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KSPB AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR INLAND BY 18Z...BUT ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE COAST MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS FOR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IFR CIGS RETURN THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN LANE COUNTY DUE
TO WILDFIRES. STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH FURTHER INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AFT 13Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM SHOULD CLEAR
BY 18Z. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT. TJ

&&

.MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE NW...BRIEFLY
SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SEAS WILL
COMPRISE OF A SMALL SW SWELL AND STEEP WIND WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NW SWELL WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND PEAK AROUND 7
FEET ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS.
TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 281005
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
305 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EAST AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 46N/135W. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ZIP THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES AND TEMPERATURES THERE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
WEST OF THE CASCADES WHICH SHOULD KNOCK DOWN MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ON AVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL
PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL. THE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS
CONFINED TO THE COAST AND COQUILLE BASIN AND NOT EXPECTING THIS TO
MOVE MUCH FURTHER INLAND. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SOUTHERN OREGON.

ANOTHER, BUT STRONGER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COOL, STABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE AS COOL AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES.
THE TYPE OF PATTERN SETTING UP THIS WEEKEND IS NORMALLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE WON`T GET
ANYTHING WHICH IS THE GOOD NEWS. THE NOT SO GOOD NEWS IS THAT GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN CAL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS
SHOW 600 MB WINDS AROUND 25 KTS SATURDAY AND 30-40 KTS SUNDAY IN
LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
SURFACE HEATING, SUSPECT SOME THOSE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIXED DOWN
NEAR THE SURFACE. GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN FOR THE CURRENT FIRES IN OUR REGION BECAUSE IT COULD BE
WINDY ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE SPREAD CONCERNS GIVEN THE DRYNESS WERE
EXPERIENCING.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL END UP BELOW NORMAL, BUT THE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S AND LOWER TO
MID 70S EAST OF THE CASCADES.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE, THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
HEATING UP, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN, THEREFORE WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG.

BEYOND LABOR DAY, THE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT SHOWING
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLING AND THE
POTENTIAL OR GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN
CAL. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF LIFR AND IFR
STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING. INLAND...IFR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...PERHAPS BRINGING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF STRATUS AS FAR
INLAND AS ROSEBURG AROUND 13Z-15Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY...AND
AREAS OF HAZE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. -BPN


&&

MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT WED 26 AUG 2014...AS THE THERMAL
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS , SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING.WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY PERSIST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MODERATE  NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN/SVEN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM
     PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$







000
FXUS66 KMFR 281005
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
305 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EAST AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 46N/135W. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ZIP THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES AND TEMPERATURES THERE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
WEST OF THE CASCADES WHICH SHOULD KNOCK DOWN MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ON AVERAGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL
PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL. THE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS
CONFINED TO THE COAST AND COQUILLE BASIN AND NOT EXPECTING THIS TO
MOVE MUCH FURTHER INLAND. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SOUTHERN OREGON.

ANOTHER, BUT STRONGER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COOL, STABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE AS COOL AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES.
THE TYPE OF PATTERN SETTING UP THIS WEEKEND IS NORMALLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE WON`T GET
ANYTHING WHICH IS THE GOOD NEWS. THE NOT SO GOOD NEWS IS THAT GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN CAL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS
SHOW 600 MB WINDS AROUND 25 KTS SATURDAY AND 30-40 KTS SUNDAY IN
LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
SURFACE HEATING, SUSPECT SOME THOSE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIXED DOWN
NEAR THE SURFACE. GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN FOR THE CURRENT FIRES IN OUR REGION BECAUSE IT COULD BE
WINDY ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE SPREAD CONCERNS GIVEN THE DRYNESS WERE
EXPERIENCING.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL END UP BELOW NORMAL, BUT THE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S AND LOWER TO
MID 70S EAST OF THE CASCADES.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE, THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
HEATING UP, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY. WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN, THEREFORE WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG.

BEYOND LABOR DAY, THE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT SHOWING
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLING AND THE
POTENTIAL OR GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN
CAL. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF LIFR AND IFR
STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING. INLAND...IFR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...PERHAPS BRINGING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF STRATUS AS FAR
INLAND AS ROSEBURG AROUND 13Z-15Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY...AND
AREAS OF HAZE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. -BPN


&&

MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT WED 26 AUG 2014...AS THE THERMAL
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS , SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING.WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY PERSIST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MODERATE  NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN/SVEN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM
     PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$






000
FXUS65 KBOI 280849
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
249 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY. MOST OF THE DAY...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WILL BE AHEAD OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A BAKER
CITY TO MCCALL LINE THIS EVENING...AND A MODERATE BREEZE AND
SLIGHT COOLING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
IDAHO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL BRING A COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ON SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS EASTERN
OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
FRIDAY/S HIGHS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS...WEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 280849
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
249 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY. MOST OF THE DAY...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WILL BE AHEAD OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A BAKER
CITY TO MCCALL LINE THIS EVENING...AND A MODERATE BREEZE AND
SLIGHT COOLING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
IDAHO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL BRING A COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ON SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS EASTERN
OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
FRIDAY/S HIGHS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS...WEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 280849
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
249 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY. MOST OF THE DAY...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WILL BE AHEAD OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A BAKER
CITY TO MCCALL LINE THIS EVENING...AND A MODERATE BREEZE AND
SLIGHT COOLING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
IDAHO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL BRING A COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ON SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS EASTERN
OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
FRIDAY/S HIGHS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS...WEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 280849
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
249 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY. MOST OF THE DAY...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WILL BE AHEAD OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A BAKER
CITY TO MCCALL LINE THIS EVENING...AND A MODERATE BREEZE AND
SLIGHT COOLING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
IDAHO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL BRING A COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ON SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS EASTERN
OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
FRIDAY/S HIGHS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS...WEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS66 KPDT 280834
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
134 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE OR
INSTABILITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SO THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST WILL BE BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT AS THE MARINE
PUSH BECOMES ESTABLISHED RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RED FLAG EVENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN WIND AND COOLER MARINE AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE THE
MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN A TEMPERATURE COOL DOWN WILL BE FELT
IN THE WESTERN LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST
SLOPES. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE IN THESE
AREAS. IN EASTERN AREAS THE WINDS WILL NOT INCREASE THAT MUCH ON
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL AS MUCH EITHER. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BRING MORE INCREASING WINDS BUT ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COOL DOWN EVEN MORE
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS DROPPING TO ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER DUE TO
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENTS. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE FLOW WILL BUCKLE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THAT MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY WEST WINDS. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE BY ON THURSDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE PERIOD SOME OF THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
MAY SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZES OF THE SEASON. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE W-NW AT 12-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  87  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  88  61  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  91  58  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  86  56  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  90  57  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  55  75  51 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  85  47  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  84  49  82  49 /   0   0  10  10
GCD  85  49  83  47 /   0   0  10  10
DLS  85  59  80  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78






000
FXUS66 KPDT 280834
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
134 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE OR
INSTABILITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SO THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST WILL BE BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT AS THE MARINE
PUSH BECOMES ESTABLISHED RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RED FLAG EVENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN WIND AND COOLER MARINE AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE THE
MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN A TEMPERATURE COOL DOWN WILL BE FELT
IN THE WESTERN LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ALONG THE CASCADE EAST
SLOPES. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE IN THESE
AREAS. IN EASTERN AREAS THE WINDS WILL NOT INCREASE THAT MUCH ON
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL AS MUCH EITHER. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BRING MORE INCREASING WINDS BUT ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COOL DOWN EVEN MORE
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS DROPPING TO ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER DUE TO
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENTS. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE FLOW WILL BUCKLE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THAT MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY WEST WINDS. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE BY ON THURSDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE PERIOD SOME OF THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
MAY SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZES OF THE SEASON. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE W-NW AT 12-25 KT WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  87  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  88  61  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  91  58  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  86  56  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  90  57  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  55  75  51 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  85  47  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  84  49  82  49 /   0   0  10  10
GCD  85  49  83  47 /   0   0  10  10
DLS  85  59  80  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78





000
FXUS66 KPDT 280436 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
930 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREAS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE AT ELN. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES APPEAR IN THE BALL PARK AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY. MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MAIN IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HIGH TEMPS BY
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES. 94

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A TROUGH
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AND CONFINE SHOWERS TO THE CASCADE CREST
REGION. HAVE DRIED OUT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND KEPT RAIN SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND LEAVE US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OUT IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL SEND A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. BY TUESDAY
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA. LATEST RUNS KEEP THE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER RUNS.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW TURNS WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
PRECIPITATION BUT HAVE CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. BY WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE THE SLOWER GFS HAS IT FURTHER
WEST OVER WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY FOR
OUR AREA AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT, THOUGH IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY GENERATE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, THOUGH BY TUESDAY A FEW
COLUMBIA BASIN LOCATIONS WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 80S. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61  89  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  64  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  62  91  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  59  87  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  61  90  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  58  84  55  78 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  52  87  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  53  86  49  82 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  52  87  49  83 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  63  87  59  81 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97









000
FXUS66 KPDT 280436 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
930 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREAS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE AT ELN. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES APPEAR IN THE BALL PARK AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY. MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MAIN IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HIGH TEMPS BY
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES. 94

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A TROUGH
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AND CONFINE SHOWERS TO THE CASCADE CREST
REGION. HAVE DRIED OUT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND KEPT RAIN SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND LEAVE US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OUT IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL SEND A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. BY TUESDAY
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA. LATEST RUNS KEEP THE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER RUNS.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW TURNS WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
PRECIPITATION BUT HAVE CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. BY WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE THE SLOWER GFS HAS IT FURTHER
WEST OVER WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY FOR
OUR AREA AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT, THOUGH IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY GENERATE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, THOUGH BY TUESDAY A FEW
COLUMBIA BASIN LOCATIONS WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 80S. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61  89  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  64  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  62  91  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  59  87  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  61  90  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  58  84  55  78 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  52  87  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  53  86  49  82 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  52  87  49  83 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  63  87  59  81 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97









000
FXUS66 KPDT 280436 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
930 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREAS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE AT ELN. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES APPEAR IN THE BALL PARK AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY. MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MAIN IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HIGH TEMPS BY
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES. 94

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A TROUGH
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AND CONFINE SHOWERS TO THE CASCADE CREST
REGION. HAVE DRIED OUT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND KEPT RAIN SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND LEAVE US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OUT IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL SEND A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. BY TUESDAY
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA. LATEST RUNS KEEP THE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER RUNS.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW TURNS WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
PRECIPITATION BUT HAVE CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. BY WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE THE SLOWER GFS HAS IT FURTHER
WEST OVER WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY FOR
OUR AREA AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT, THOUGH IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY GENERATE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, THOUGH BY TUESDAY A FEW
COLUMBIA BASIN LOCATIONS WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 80S. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61  89  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  64  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  62  91  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  59  87  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  61  90  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  58  84  55  78 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  52  87  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  53  86  49  82 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  52  87  49  83 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  63  87  59  81 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97









000
FXUS66 KPDT 280436 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
930 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREAS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE AT ELN. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES APPEAR IN THE BALL PARK AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY. MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MAIN IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HIGH TEMPS BY
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES. 94

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A TROUGH
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AND CONFINE SHOWERS TO THE CASCADE CREST
REGION. HAVE DRIED OUT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND KEPT RAIN SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND LEAVE US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OUT IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL SEND A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. BY TUESDAY
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA. LATEST RUNS KEEP THE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER RUNS.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW TURNS WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
PRECIPITATION BUT HAVE CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. BY WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE THE SLOWER GFS HAS IT FURTHER
WEST OVER WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY FOR
OUR AREA AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT, THOUGH IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY GENERATE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, THOUGH BY TUESDAY A FEW
COLUMBIA BASIN LOCATIONS WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 80S. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61  89  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  64  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  62  91  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  59  87  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  61  90  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  58  84  55  78 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  52  87  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  53  86  49  82 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  52  87  49  83 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  63  87  59  81 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97









000
FXUS66 KPQR 280320
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
820 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THU AND FRI. THIS WILL ALOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE THIS EVENING. THERMAL LOW PRES NOW SITS EAST OF
THE CASCADES...AND ONSHORE FLOW IS STARTING TO STRENGTHEN. LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG ARE RAPIDLY FILLING THE COASTAL BEACHES. THESE
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PUSH FURTHER INLAND TO FILL MOST ALL COASTAL
VALLEYS BY LATER THIS EVENING.

AS THE UPPER HIGH PRES RIDGES CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE WESTERN
US...WITH LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE N PAC TO PUSH INTO THE PAC
NW...RESULTING IN INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL APPROACH LATER TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS REGION THU. MODELS HAVE SLOWED ITS ARRIVAL UNTIL MID DAY
THU...SO THIS WILL LIMIT AREAS OF DRIZZLE THU AM TO COAST AND INTO
THE COAST RANGE. WILL MODIFY EVENING UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS
TREND. HOWEVER...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING MARINE CLOUDS INTO MOST OF
SW WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST...AND INTO THE N WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
SUSPECT MARINE LAYER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THU AND TAKE SOME TIME
TO FILL THE INTERIOR SO MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER N INTERIOR WILL BURN
OFF LATER THU AM...THEN SUNNY WITH INLAND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL GET STRONGER THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PAC NW.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG MARINE PUSH THAT FILLS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS WITH CLOUDS THAT WILL PERSIST ON FRI. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO WRING OUT SOME DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THE COAST...COAST RANGE...AND
CASCADE FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER DAY
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY. THIS WILL
MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. WITH THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE...AGAIN EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COAST AND THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  ROCKPYLE

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...IFR CLOUDS AND FOG NOW HUGGING THE COASTLINE...AND
WILL PUSH INLAND ALONG THE COASTAL VALLEYS THIS EVENING. STILL
SEEMS REASONABLE THAT ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
LOW MVFR OR IFR CLOUDS UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER...FILLING MOST OF
THE COWLITZ AND LOWER COLUMBIA VALLEYS. CLOUDS SHOULD FILTER
WELL INTO THE N WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. CLOUDS
WILL BURN BACK TO THE COAST RANGE BY 18Z...BUT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE SO COAST LIKELY TO REMAIN IN CLOUDS THAT WILL
LIFT TO MVFR IN THE AM. EXPECT BREEZY W WINDS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IN EAST COLUMBIA GORGE AFTER 18Z THU.

EXPECT AREAS OF SMOKE IN EASTERN LANE COUNTY DUE TO WILDFIRES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND THU. BUT CONFIDENCE
GROWING FOR LOW MVFR OR IFR...WHERE CIGS 800 TO 1200 FT...
TO ARRIVE AT KPDX/KTTD AROUND 12Z...AND PERSIST UNTIL 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DESPITE A
COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE
NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NW SWELL
BUILDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COMBINED SEAS UP TO 7 FT.
SEAS COULD BE A BIT STEEP WITH 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE WITH FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR LABOR DAY. OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 280320
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
820 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM
WEATHER WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THU AND FRI. THIS WILL ALOW
FOR WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE N PAC TO ARRIVE...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
EVEN A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RESUMES NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE THIS EVENING. THERMAL LOW PRES NOW SITS EAST OF
THE CASCADES...AND ONSHORE FLOW IS STARTING TO STRENGTHEN. LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG ARE RAPIDLY FILLING THE COASTAL BEACHES. THESE
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PUSH FURTHER INLAND TO FILL MOST ALL COASTAL
VALLEYS BY LATER THIS EVENING.

AS THE UPPER HIGH PRES RIDGES CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE WESTERN
US...WITH LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE N PAC TO PUSH INTO THE PAC
NW...RESULTING IN INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL APPROACH LATER TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS REGION THU. MODELS HAVE SLOWED ITS ARRIVAL UNTIL MID DAY
THU...SO THIS WILL LIMIT AREAS OF DRIZZLE THU AM TO COAST AND INTO
THE COAST RANGE. WILL MODIFY EVENING UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS
TREND. HOWEVER...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING MARINE CLOUDS INTO MOST OF
SW WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST...AND INTO THE N WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
SUSPECT MARINE LAYER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THU AND TAKE SOME TIME
TO FILL THE INTERIOR SO MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER N INTERIOR WILL BURN
OFF LATER THU AM...THEN SUNNY WITH INLAND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL GET STRONGER THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PAC NW.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG MARINE PUSH THAT FILLS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS WITH CLOUDS THAT WILL PERSIST ON FRI. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO WRING OUT SOME DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THE COAST...COAST RANGE...AND
CASCADE FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER DAY
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY. THIS WILL
MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. WITH THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE...AGAIN EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COAST AND THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  ROCKPYLE

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...IFR CLOUDS AND FOG NOW HUGGING THE COASTLINE...AND
WILL PUSH INLAND ALONG THE COASTAL VALLEYS THIS EVENING. STILL
SEEMS REASONABLE THAT ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
LOW MVFR OR IFR CLOUDS UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER...FILLING MOST OF
THE COWLITZ AND LOWER COLUMBIA VALLEYS. CLOUDS SHOULD FILTER
WELL INTO THE N WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. CLOUDS
WILL BURN BACK TO THE COAST RANGE BY 18Z...BUT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE SO COAST LIKELY TO REMAIN IN CLOUDS THAT WILL
LIFT TO MVFR IN THE AM. EXPECT BREEZY W WINDS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IN EAST COLUMBIA GORGE AFTER 18Z THU.

EXPECT AREAS OF SMOKE IN EASTERN LANE COUNTY DUE TO WILDFIRES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT AND THU. BUT CONFIDENCE
GROWING FOR LOW MVFR OR IFR...WHERE CIGS 800 TO 1200 FT...
TO ARRIVE AT KPDX/KTTD AROUND 12Z...AND PERSIST UNTIL 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DESPITE A
COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE
NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NW SWELL
BUILDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COMBINED SEAS UP TO 7 FT.
SEAS COULD BE A BIT STEEP WITH 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE WITH FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR LABOR DAY. OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 280301
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
801 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS MAD FOR
A BEAUTIFUL SUNSET OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY, IT IS SMOKE, AND IT HAS RESULTED IN HAZY,
IF NOT DOWNRIGHT SMOKEY, SKIES AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, SO NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF LIFR AND IFR
STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY WILL
RETURN BETWEEN 00Z-03Z AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. INLAND...THE IFR
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO INTRUDE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
UMPQUA VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...PERHAPS BRINGING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
STRATUS AS FAR SOUTH AS ROSEBURG AROUND 13Z-15Z. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF
WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. /SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT WED 26 AUG 2014...AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY
BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES
INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE NORTH
WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN/SVEN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...27/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST. OTHER THAN
THAT...THE SISKIYOU COUNTY AND CASCADES FIRES CONTINUE TO CRANK
OUT A LOT OF SMOKE.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY...AND IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS. MEDFORD WILL FLIRT WITH A HIGH OF 100 DEGREES.

A SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE OUT A BIT. OVERALL IT WON`T MAKE
MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT INLAND LOCATIONS MAY BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AS MODEL LIFTED INDICES SHOW SOME INSTABILITY THERE.
HOWEVER...LIFTED INDICES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE BOTH
MARGINAL...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY WEAKENING THIS FEATURE FROM RUN-TO-RUN.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL CONCERNS. IT WILL PUSH A WEAK
FRONT ONSHORE FRIDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AND ONCE AGAIN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES. IT WILL
BE COOLER THOUGH...AND THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST. AT THIS TIME AM GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST AND NO MENTION OF INLAND CONVECTION.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE A WEAK
EVENT.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING
A BIT TUESDAY DUE TO SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THE
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

THE 27/12Z GFS SOLUTION SHOWS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING
WEDNESDAY. IF THIS VERIFIES...THIS WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT THE TROUGH LOOKS TO WEAK TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. IT WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 27/12Z EC HOLDS ON
TO A RIDGE TUESDAY BUT DIGS A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY. IF THAT VERIFIES...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH A
WEAKER COOLING TREND. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND A
SLIGHT BIT OF COOLING FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
     11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/JRS/SBN







000
FXUS65 KBOI 280256
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
856 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM SOLUTIONS BOTH SHOWING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ID MTNS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN NV BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A FAST MOVING...LOW-
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. CAPE AND LI INDICES ARE MARGINAL AND
BEST MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS STAY ACROSS NORTHERN ID SO SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES ARE SLIGHT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
NO UPDATES FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT
AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 90S THURSDAY IN THE
VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WASHINGTON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MOSTLY
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MAINLY NORTH OF A BAKER CITY-MCCALL LINE. FOR
FRIDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT REACHES BURNS/BAKER CITY AROUND 00Z SATURDAY AND BOISE
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY /MIDNIGHT FRIDAY/. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
INITIALLY DRY UNTIL IT REACHES SW IDAHO AND INTERACTS WITH A
DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC STORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC MOVING ACROSS NEVADA. THIS SHOULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY. VALLEY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F WITH MOUNTAIN HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY AND LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB BACK
TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A NEW TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 280256
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
856 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM SOLUTIONS BOTH SHOWING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ID MTNS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN NV BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A FAST MOVING...LOW-
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. CAPE AND LI INDICES ARE MARGINAL AND
BEST MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS STAY ACROSS NORTHERN ID SO SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES ARE SLIGHT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
NO UPDATES FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT
AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 90S THURSDAY IN THE
VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WASHINGTON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MOSTLY
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MAINLY NORTH OF A BAKER CITY-MCCALL LINE. FOR
FRIDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT REACHES BURNS/BAKER CITY AROUND 00Z SATURDAY AND BOISE
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY /MIDNIGHT FRIDAY/. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
INITIALLY DRY UNTIL IT REACHES SW IDAHO AND INTERACTS WITH A
DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC STORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC MOVING ACROSS NEVADA. THIS SHOULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY. VALLEY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F WITH MOUNTAIN HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY AND LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB BACK
TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A NEW TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 280256
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
856 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM SOLUTIONS BOTH SHOWING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ID MTNS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN NV BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A FAST MOVING...LOW-
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. CAPE AND LI INDICES ARE MARGINAL AND
BEST MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS STAY ACROSS NORTHERN ID SO SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES ARE SLIGHT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
NO UPDATES FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT
AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 90S THURSDAY IN THE
VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WASHINGTON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MOSTLY
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MAINLY NORTH OF A BAKER CITY-MCCALL LINE. FOR
FRIDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT REACHES BURNS/BAKER CITY AROUND 00Z SATURDAY AND BOISE
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY /MIDNIGHT FRIDAY/. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
INITIALLY DRY UNTIL IT REACHES SW IDAHO AND INTERACTS WITH A
DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC STORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC MOVING ACROSS NEVADA. THIS SHOULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY. VALLEY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F WITH MOUNTAIN HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY AND LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB BACK
TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A NEW TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 280256
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
856 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM SOLUTIONS BOTH SHOWING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ID MTNS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN NV BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A FAST MOVING...LOW-
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. CAPE AND LI INDICES ARE MARGINAL AND
BEST MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS STAY ACROSS NORTHERN ID SO SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES ARE SLIGHT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
NO UPDATES FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT
AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 90S THURSDAY IN THE
VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WASHINGTON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MOSTLY
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MAINLY NORTH OF A BAKER CITY-MCCALL LINE. FOR
FRIDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT REACHES BURNS/BAKER CITY AROUND 00Z SATURDAY AND BOISE
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY /MIDNIGHT FRIDAY/. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
INITIALLY DRY UNTIL IT REACHES SW IDAHO AND INTERACTS WITH A
DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC STORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC MOVING ACROSS NEVADA. THIS SHOULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY. VALLEY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F WITH MOUNTAIN HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY AND LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB BACK
TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A NEW TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW/AB



000
FXUS66 KPQR 272150
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
250 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE
U.S. WEST COAST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH JUST EAST
OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS KEEPING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO FLATTEN OVER
THE PAC NW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. EXPECT BETTER ONSHORE FLOW...INCREASED CLOUDS...AND COOLER
TEMPS THU AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI...WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
WEATHER BEGINNING FRI ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST TODAY...WITH AN AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH NOW LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THIS PATTERN IS LEADING TO YET ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. HOWEVER DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW HAS KEPT IT MUCH COOLER AT
THE COAST...WITH MARINE CLOUDS REMAINING RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE LINE
OR JUST OFFSHORE.

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF A
TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS IMPULSE WILL
SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. THE
TROUGH APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO SLOW MOVING ONSHORE TO BRING A FULL
INLAND INTRUSION OF MARINE STRATUS IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT THE
PUSH TO BE BETTER THAN LAST NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE
NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER DECK POSSIBLY FORMING OVER
THE S WA AND N OR FOOTHILLS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
GET SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE MARINE CLOUD COVER.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO PUSH THROUGH
ON FRI AND SHOULD RESULT IN A MARINE PUSH THAT FILLS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS WITH CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO WRING OUT SOME DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THE
BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THE COAST...COAST RANGE...AND CASCADE
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY. THIS WILL
MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. WITH THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE...AGAIN EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COAST AND THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. PYLE

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL AREAS ARE IN THE MIDST OF CLEARING IF THEY
HAVEN`T ALREADY. HOWEVER...WITH MARINE STRATUS JUST OFFSHORE...IFR
CIGS MAY MOVE BACK IN EARLY OR PREVENT AREAS FROM EVER COMPLETELY
CLEARING OUT. LOW STRATUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE BACK ONTO THE
COAST BY 22Z OR SO SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW
TONIGHT INTO THU SHOULD BRING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH MVFR
CIGS REACHING THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SW WASHINGTON.

SOME LOCALIZED SMOKE FROM THE FIRES NEAR OAKRIDGE IN EASTERN LANE
COUNTY MAY REDUCE VSBY IN THAT AREA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE HIGH MVFR CIGS AFTER 14Z. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DESPITE A
COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE
NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NW SWELL
BUILDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COMBINED SEAS UP TO 7 FT.
SEAS COULD BE A BIT STEEP WITH 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE WITH FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR LABOR DAY. OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 272150
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
250 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE
U.S. WEST COAST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH JUST EAST
OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS KEEPING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO FLATTEN OVER
THE PAC NW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. EXPECT BETTER ONSHORE FLOW...INCREASED CLOUDS...AND COOLER
TEMPS THU AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI...WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
WEATHER BEGINNING FRI ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST TODAY...WITH AN AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH NOW LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THIS PATTERN IS LEADING TO YET ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. HOWEVER DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW HAS KEPT IT MUCH COOLER AT
THE COAST...WITH MARINE CLOUDS REMAINING RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE LINE
OR JUST OFFSHORE.

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF A
TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS IMPULSE WILL
SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. THE
TROUGH APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO SLOW MOVING ONSHORE TO BRING A FULL
INLAND INTRUSION OF MARINE STRATUS IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT THE
PUSH TO BE BETTER THAN LAST NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE
NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER DECK POSSIBLY FORMING OVER
THE S WA AND N OR FOOTHILLS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
GET SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE MARINE CLOUD COVER.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO PUSH THROUGH
ON FRI AND SHOULD RESULT IN A MARINE PUSH THAT FILLS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS WITH CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO WRING OUT SOME DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THE
BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THE COAST...COAST RANGE...AND CASCADE
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY. THIS WILL
MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. WITH THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE...AGAIN EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COAST AND THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. PYLE

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL AREAS ARE IN THE MIDST OF CLEARING IF THEY
HAVEN`T ALREADY. HOWEVER...WITH MARINE STRATUS JUST OFFSHORE...IFR
CIGS MAY MOVE BACK IN EARLY OR PREVENT AREAS FROM EVER COMPLETELY
CLEARING OUT. LOW STRATUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE BACK ONTO THE
COAST BY 22Z OR SO SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW
TONIGHT INTO THU SHOULD BRING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH MVFR
CIGS REACHING THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SW WASHINGTON.

SOME LOCALIZED SMOKE FROM THE FIRES NEAR OAKRIDGE IN EASTERN LANE
COUNTY MAY REDUCE VSBY IN THAT AREA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE HIGH MVFR CIGS AFTER 14Z. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DESPITE A
COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE
NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NW SWELL
BUILDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COMBINED SEAS UP TO 7 FT.
SEAS COULD BE A BIT STEEP WITH 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE WITH FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR LABOR DAY. OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 272150
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
250 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE
U.S. WEST COAST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH JUST EAST
OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS KEEPING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO FLATTEN OVER
THE PAC NW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. EXPECT BETTER ONSHORE FLOW...INCREASED CLOUDS...AND COOLER
TEMPS THU AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI...WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
WEATHER BEGINNING FRI ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST TODAY...WITH AN AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH NOW LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THIS PATTERN IS LEADING TO YET ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. HOWEVER DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW HAS KEPT IT MUCH COOLER AT
THE COAST...WITH MARINE CLOUDS REMAINING RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE LINE
OR JUST OFFSHORE.

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF A
TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS IMPULSE WILL
SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. THE
TROUGH APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO SLOW MOVING ONSHORE TO BRING A FULL
INLAND INTRUSION OF MARINE STRATUS IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT THE
PUSH TO BE BETTER THAN LAST NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE
NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER DECK POSSIBLY FORMING OVER
THE S WA AND N OR FOOTHILLS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
GET SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE MARINE CLOUD COVER.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO PUSH THROUGH
ON FRI AND SHOULD RESULT IN A MARINE PUSH THAT FILLS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS WITH CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO WRING OUT SOME DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THE
BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THE COAST...COAST RANGE...AND CASCADE
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY. THIS WILL
MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. WITH THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE...AGAIN EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COAST AND THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. PYLE

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL AREAS ARE IN THE MIDST OF CLEARING IF THEY
HAVEN`T ALREADY. HOWEVER...WITH MARINE STRATUS JUST OFFSHORE...IFR
CIGS MAY MOVE BACK IN EARLY OR PREVENT AREAS FROM EVER COMPLETELY
CLEARING OUT. LOW STRATUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE BACK ONTO THE
COAST BY 22Z OR SO SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW
TONIGHT INTO THU SHOULD BRING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH MVFR
CIGS REACHING THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SW WASHINGTON.

SOME LOCALIZED SMOKE FROM THE FIRES NEAR OAKRIDGE IN EASTERN LANE
COUNTY MAY REDUCE VSBY IN THAT AREA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE HIGH MVFR CIGS AFTER 14Z. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DESPITE A
COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE
NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NW SWELL
BUILDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COMBINED SEAS UP TO 7 FT.
SEAS COULD BE A BIT STEEP WITH 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE WITH FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR LABOR DAY. OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 272150
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
250 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE
U.S. WEST COAST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH JUST EAST
OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS KEEPING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO FLATTEN OVER
THE PAC NW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. EXPECT BETTER ONSHORE FLOW...INCREASED CLOUDS...AND COOLER
TEMPS THU AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI...WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
WEATHER BEGINNING FRI ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST TODAY...WITH AN AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH NOW LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THIS PATTERN IS LEADING TO YET ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. HOWEVER DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW HAS KEPT IT MUCH COOLER AT
THE COAST...WITH MARINE CLOUDS REMAINING RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE LINE
OR JUST OFFSHORE.

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF A
TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS IMPULSE WILL
SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. THE
TROUGH APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO SLOW MOVING ONSHORE TO BRING A FULL
INLAND INTRUSION OF MARINE STRATUS IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT THE
PUSH TO BE BETTER THAN LAST NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE
NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER DECK POSSIBLY FORMING OVER
THE S WA AND N OR FOOTHILLS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
GET SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE MARINE CLOUD COVER.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO PUSH THROUGH
ON FRI AND SHOULD RESULT IN A MARINE PUSH THAT FILLS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS WITH CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO WRING OUT SOME DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THE
BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THE COAST...COAST RANGE...AND CASCADE
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY. THIS WILL
MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR. WITH THE DEEP MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE...AGAIN EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COAST AND THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. PYLE

.LONG TERM...ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX TODAY DRASTICALLY CUT BACK ON
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND REMOVED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS GOES
WITH THE TREND AND CLIMATOLOGY OF TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHERE MOISTURE ISN`T SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. I LEFT A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE OR COASTAL RANGE AND WA...BUT REDUCED POPS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND DROPPED POPS
INLAND SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN
INDICATING A WARMING TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL AREAS ARE IN THE MIDST OF CLEARING IF THEY
HAVEN`T ALREADY. HOWEVER...WITH MARINE STRATUS JUST OFFSHORE...IFR
CIGS MAY MOVE BACK IN EARLY OR PREVENT AREAS FROM EVER COMPLETELY
CLEARING OUT. LOW STRATUS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE BACK ONTO THE
COAST BY 22Z OR SO SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW
TONIGHT INTO THU SHOULD BRING A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH MVFR
CIGS REACHING THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SW WASHINGTON.

SOME LOCALIZED SMOKE FROM THE FIRES NEAR OAKRIDGE IN EASTERN LANE
COUNTY MAY REDUCE VSBY IN THAT AREA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE HIGH MVFR CIGS AFTER 14Z. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DESPITE A
COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE
NW...BRIEFLY SHIFTING W AND SW WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NW SWELL
BUILDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH COMBINED SEAS UP TO 7 FT.
SEAS COULD BE A BIT STEEP WITH 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE WITH FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR LABOR DAY. OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 272129
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY. MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MAIN IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HIGH TEMPS BY
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES. 94


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A TROUGH
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AND CONFINE SHOWERS TO THE CASCADE CREST
REGION. HAVE DRIED OUT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND KEPT RAIN SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND LEAVE US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OUT IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL SEND A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. BY TUESDAY
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA. LATEST RUNS KEEP THE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER RUNS.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW TURNS WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
PRECIPITATION BUT HAVE CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. BY WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE THE SLOWER GFS HAS IT FURTHER
WEST OVER WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY FOR
OUR AREA AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT, THOUGH IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY GENERATE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, THOUGH BY TUESDAY A FEW
COLUMBIA BASIN LOCATIONS WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 80S. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR THOUGH SOME HIGH CIRRUS ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 10Z THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS FROM 21Z-04Z.
WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 06Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING AFTER
17Z. AFTER 20Z, KDLS WILL REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
AND KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS. OTHER TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61  89  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  64  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  62  91  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  59  87  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  61  90  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  58  84  55  78 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  52  87  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  53  86  49  82 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  52  87  49  83 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  63  87  59  81 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/83






000
FXUS66 KPDT 272129
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY. MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MAIN IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HIGH TEMPS BY
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES. 94


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A TROUGH
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AND CONFINE SHOWERS TO THE CASCADE CREST
REGION. HAVE DRIED OUT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND KEPT RAIN SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND LEAVE US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OUT IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL SEND A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. BY TUESDAY
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA. LATEST RUNS KEEP THE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER RUNS.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW TURNS WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
PRECIPITATION BUT HAVE CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. BY WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE THE SLOWER GFS HAS IT FURTHER
WEST OVER WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY FOR
OUR AREA AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT, THOUGH IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY GENERATE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, THOUGH BY TUESDAY A FEW
COLUMBIA BASIN LOCATIONS WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 80S. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR THOUGH SOME HIGH CIRRUS ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 10Z THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS FROM 21Z-04Z.
WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 06Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING AFTER
17Z. AFTER 20Z, KDLS WILL REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
AND KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS. OTHER TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61  89  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  64  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  62  91  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  59  87  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  61  90  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  58  84  55  78 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  52  87  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  53  86  49  82 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  52  87  49  83 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  63  87  59  81 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/83






000
FXUS66 KPDT 272129
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY. MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MAIN IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HIGH TEMPS BY
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES. 94


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A TROUGH
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AND CONFINE SHOWERS TO THE CASCADE CREST
REGION. HAVE DRIED OUT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND KEPT RAIN SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND LEAVE US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OUT IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL SEND A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. BY TUESDAY
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA. LATEST RUNS KEEP THE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER RUNS.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW TURNS WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
PRECIPITATION BUT HAVE CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. BY WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE THE SLOWER GFS HAS IT FURTHER
WEST OVER WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY FOR
OUR AREA AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT, THOUGH IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY GENERATE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, THOUGH BY TUESDAY A FEW
COLUMBIA BASIN LOCATIONS WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 80S. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR THOUGH SOME HIGH CIRRUS ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 10Z THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS FROM 21Z-04Z.
WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 06Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING AFTER
17Z. AFTER 20Z, KDLS WILL REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
AND KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS. OTHER TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61  89  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  64  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  62  91  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  59  87  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  61  90  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  58  84  55  78 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  52  87  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  53  86  49  82 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  52  87  49  83 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  63  87  59  81 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/83






000
FXUS66 KPDT 272129
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY. MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MAIN IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HIGH TEMPS BY
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES. 94


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A TROUGH
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AND CONFINE SHOWERS TO THE CASCADE CREST
REGION. HAVE DRIED OUT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND KEPT RAIN SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND LEAVE US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OUT IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL SEND A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. BY TUESDAY
MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA. LATEST RUNS KEEP THE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER RUNS.
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW TURNS WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
PRECIPITATION BUT HAVE CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. BY WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE THE SLOWER GFS HAS IT FURTHER
WEST OVER WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY FOR
OUR AREA AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT, THOUGH IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY GENERATE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, THOUGH BY TUESDAY A FEW
COLUMBIA BASIN LOCATIONS WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 80S. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR THOUGH SOME HIGH CIRRUS ABOVE
20000 FEET AGL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 10Z THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING THOUGH KDLS MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS FROM 21Z-04Z.
WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 06Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING AFTER
17Z. AFTER 20Z, KDLS WILL REACH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
AND KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS. OTHER TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  61  89  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  64  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  62  91  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  59  87  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  61  90  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  58  84  55  78 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  52  87  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  53  86  49  82 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  52  87  49  83 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  63  87  59  81 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/83






000
FXUS66 KMFR 272105
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
205 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...27/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST. OTHER THAN
THAT...THE SISKIYOU COUNTY AND CASCADES FIRES CONTINUE TO CRANK
OUT A LOT OF SMOKE.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY...AND IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS. MEDFORD WILL FLIRT WITH A HIGH OF 100 DEGREES.

A SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE OUT A BIT. OVERALL IT WON`T MAKE
MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT INLAND LOCATIONS MAY BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AS MODEL LIFTED INDICES SHOW SOME INSTABILITY THERE.
HOWEVER...LIFTED INDICES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE BOTH
MARGINAL...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY WEAKENING THIS FEATURE FROM RUN-TO-RUN.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL CONCERNS. IT WILL PUSH A WEAK
FRONT ONSHORE FRIDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AND ONCE AGAIN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES. IT WILL
BE COOLER THOUGH...AND THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST. AT THIS TIME AM GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST AND NO MENTION OF INLAND CONVECTION.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE A WEAK
EVENT.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING
A BIT TUESDAY DUE TO SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THE
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

THE 27/12Z GFS SOLUTION SHOWS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING
WEDNESDAY. IF THIS VERIFIES...THIS WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT THE TROUGH LOOKS TO WEAK TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. IT WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 27/12Z EC HOLDS ON
TO A RIDGE TUESDAY BUT DIGS A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY. IF THAT VERIFIES...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH A
WEAKER COOLING TREND. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND A
SLIGHT BIT OF COOLING FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF LIFR AND IFR
STRATUS AND FOG NEAR THE NORTH COAST WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND
COQUILLE VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
INLAND...THE IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO INTRUDE INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...PERHAPS BRINGING A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF STRATUS AS FAR SOUTH AS ROSEBURG AROUND 13Z-
15Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES,
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT WED 26 AUG 2014...AS THE THERMAL
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY PERSIST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. -SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
        PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

15/15/04




000
FXUS66 KMFR 272105
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
205 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...27/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST. OTHER THAN
THAT...THE SISKIYOU COUNTY AND CASCADES FIRES CONTINUE TO CRANK
OUT A LOT OF SMOKE.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY...AND IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS. MEDFORD WILL FLIRT WITH A HIGH OF 100 DEGREES.

A SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE OUT A BIT. OVERALL IT WON`T MAKE
MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT INLAND LOCATIONS MAY BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AS MODEL LIFTED INDICES SHOW SOME INSTABILITY THERE.
HOWEVER...LIFTED INDICES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE BOTH
MARGINAL...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY WEAKENING THIS FEATURE FROM RUN-TO-RUN.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL CONCERNS. IT WILL PUSH A WEAK
FRONT ONSHORE FRIDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AND ONCE AGAIN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES. IT WILL
BE COOLER THOUGH...AND THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST. AT THIS TIME AM GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST AND NO MENTION OF INLAND CONVECTION.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE A WEAK
EVENT.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING
A BIT TUESDAY DUE TO SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THE
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

THE 27/12Z GFS SOLUTION SHOWS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING
WEDNESDAY. IF THIS VERIFIES...THIS WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT THE TROUGH LOOKS TO WEAK TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. IT WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 27/12Z EC HOLDS ON
TO A RIDGE TUESDAY BUT DIGS A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY. IF THAT VERIFIES...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH A
WEAKER COOLING TREND. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND A
SLIGHT BIT OF COOLING FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF LIFR AND IFR
STRATUS AND FOG NEAR THE NORTH COAST WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND
COQUILLE VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
INLAND...THE IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO INTRUDE INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...PERHAPS BRINGING A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF STRATUS AS FAR SOUTH AS ROSEBURG AROUND 13Z-
15Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES,
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT WED 26 AUG 2014...AS THE THERMAL
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY PERSIST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. -SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
        PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

15/15/04





000
FXUS65 KBOI 272051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 90S THURSDAY IN THE
VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WASHINGTON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MOSTLY
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MAINLY NORTH OF A BAKER CITY-MCCALL LINE. FOR
FRIDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT REACHES BURNS/BAKER CITY AROUND 00Z SATURDAY AND BOISE
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY /MIDNIGHT FRIDAY/. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
INITIALLY DRY UNTIL IT REACHES SW IDAHO AND INTERACTS WITH A
DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC STORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC MOVING ACROSS NEVADA. THIS SHOULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY. VALLEY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F WITH MOUNTAIN HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY AND LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB BACK
TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A NEW TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
CUMULUS UNTIL 03Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST UP
TO 10 KNOTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....BW/AB
AVIATION.....BW



000
FXUS65 KBOI 272051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 90S THURSDAY IN THE
VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WASHINGTON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MOSTLY
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MAINLY NORTH OF A BAKER CITY-MCCALL LINE. FOR
FRIDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT REACHES BURNS/BAKER CITY AROUND 00Z SATURDAY AND BOISE
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY /MIDNIGHT FRIDAY/. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
INITIALLY DRY UNTIL IT REACHES SW IDAHO AND INTERACTS WITH A
DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC STORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC MOVING ACROSS NEVADA. THIS SHOULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY. VALLEY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F WITH MOUNTAIN HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY AND LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB BACK
TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A NEW TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
CUMULUS UNTIL 03Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST UP
TO 10 KNOTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....BW/AB
AVIATION.....BW




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