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000
FXUS66 KPQR 240317
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
817 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA...AS WELL AS LOCAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNINGS. THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON LOW FROM MONDAY WILL
MOVE EAST ENOUGH AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.UPDATE...ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SW
WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LOOMING NEAR BY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT.

MODELS SHOW A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND MORE NORTHERLY FLOW. THINK
STRATO CU MAY LINGER AROUND..BUT THERE WILL BE MORE POCKETS OF
SUNSHINE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
MONDAY AND TUES FOR MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST LAST NIGHT IS ALREADY
WELL SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM DID
REINFORCED THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS MODERATE TO STRONG AND THUS
THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON SATELLITE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING UP AT ALL TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED SO
FAR SOUTH...THE SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY TODAY HAVE WANED
CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
LATER TODAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS A BIT DOUBTFUL. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 60 AND 65...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 AT THE COAST.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN/REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AS WELL AS FINALLY TURN THE
WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WE MAY SEE A
FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AROUND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
PORTLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON ON MONDAY
SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING OF THE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES ON
MONDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT AGAIN. HOWEVER THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EITHER.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON DRIFTS TO
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE GET SOME LATE DAY SUN BREAKS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE REGION. A THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD
PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN
2000-3500 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS INLAND WILL
DETERIORATE TOWARDS PREVAILING MVFR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-17Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBY BETWEEN 08Z-16Z SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 17Z-19Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE BRIEF VFR CIGS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MVFR CIGS RETURN LATE SUNDAY. /27

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND
PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE
21 KT SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE
B.C. COAST ARE PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240317
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
817 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA...AS WELL AS LOCAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNINGS. THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON LOW FROM MONDAY WILL
MOVE EAST ENOUGH AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.UPDATE...ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE PORTLAND
FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SW
WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LOOMING NEAR BY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT.

MODELS SHOW A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND MORE NORTHERLY FLOW. THINK
STRATO CU MAY LINGER AROUND..BUT THERE WILL BE MORE POCKETS OF
SUNSHINE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
MONDAY AND TUES FOR MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST LAST NIGHT IS ALREADY
WELL SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM DID
REINFORCED THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS MODERATE TO STRONG AND THUS
THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON SATELLITE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING UP AT ALL TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED SO
FAR SOUTH...THE SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY TODAY HAVE WANED
CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
LATER TODAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS A BIT DOUBTFUL. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 60 AND 65...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 AT THE COAST.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN/REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AS WELL AS FINALLY TURN THE
WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WE MAY SEE A
FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AROUND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
PORTLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON ON MONDAY
SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING OF THE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES ON
MONDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT AGAIN. HOWEVER THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EITHER.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON DRIFTS TO
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE GET SOME LATE DAY SUN BREAKS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE REGION. A THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD
PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN
2000-3500 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS INLAND WILL
DETERIORATE TOWARDS PREVAILING MVFR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-17Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBY BETWEEN 08Z-16Z SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 17Z-19Z SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE BRIEF VFR CIGS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MVFR CIGS RETURN LATE SUNDAY. /27

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND
PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE
21 KT SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE
B.C. COAST ARE PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 240300
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...24/00Z NAM IN.

A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING WEATHERWISE OVER THE MEDFORD CWA. THE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND THE SHOWERS
THAT DID DEVELOP OVER THE MEDFORD CWA ARE NOW DISSIPATING. PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AROUND THOUGH.

A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH WEAK OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE CASCADES
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS
THAN WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS WEEK.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY ALONG THE COAST WITH THE CHETCO
EFFECT MAKING THE SOUTH COAST ESPECIALLY WARM. THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WASHINGTON STATE. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT
AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT STILL LIMITED
TO THE CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH.

DISCUSSION FROM THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFD...TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE STRETCH INLAND ON TUESDAY ALSO. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO FEED WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTY. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT AREA. INSTABILITY SPREADS NORTH UP
THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY BUT WITH VERY WEAK STEERING WINDS ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD STAY LATCHED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES UP THE CASCADE CREST ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED INCREASES
AND SPREADS NORTH INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME
MINOR TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF
HAVING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL
IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT...THEN BURN
BACK TO THE COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. SKIES WILL
CLEAR EAST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP SUNDAY
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT SATURDAY 23 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BETWEEN 10 NM AND 40
NM OFFSHORE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
        PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
        PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

15/15/15




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240300
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...24/00Z NAM IN.

A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING WEATHERWISE OVER THE MEDFORD CWA. THE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND THE SHOWERS
THAT DID DEVELOP OVER THE MEDFORD CWA ARE NOW DISSIPATING. PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AROUND THOUGH.

A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH WEAK OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE CASCADES
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS
THAN WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS WEEK.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY ALONG THE COAST WITH THE CHETCO
EFFECT MAKING THE SOUTH COAST ESPECIALLY WARM. THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WASHINGTON STATE. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT
AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT STILL LIMITED
TO THE CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH.

DISCUSSION FROM THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFD...TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE STRETCH INLAND ON TUESDAY ALSO. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO FEED WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTY. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT AREA. INSTABILITY SPREADS NORTH UP
THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY BUT WITH VERY WEAK STEERING WINDS ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD STAY LATCHED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES UP THE CASCADE CREST ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED INCREASES
AND SPREADS NORTH INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME
MINOR TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF
HAVING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL
IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT...THEN BURN
BACK TO THE COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. SKIES WILL
CLEAR EAST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP SUNDAY
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT SATURDAY 23 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BETWEEN 10 NM AND 40
NM OFFSHORE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
        PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
        PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

15/15/15


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 240259
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
859 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST TO SLOW THE EXIT OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER IN IDAHO UNTIL 9Z/3AM MDT...AND KEEP
ISOLATED RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH 6 AM MDT.
IDAHO TO MALHEUR COUNTY WAS ON THE NW FLANK OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS STILL MOIST AND
STEERING WINDS FROM THE NORTH WERE LIGHT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS
ALLOWED FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN /ARROWROCK DAM PICKED UP
OVER AN INCH/ AND HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER /OBSERVED
IN PARTS OF SE BOISE/. NEAR SUNSET VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL
OVERSHOOTING TOPS INCLUDING NEAR THE BOISE AIRPORT WHERE LIGHTNING
WAS NOT UNCOMMON LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH 3 AM MDT...THEN BE REINVIGORATED SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
DROPS OVER THE PACNW/IDAHO FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION....UNTIL 09Z NUMEROUS LOCALLY MVFR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. AFTER 09Z
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE BOISE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SUNDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY NORTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR IDAHO ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO
BE POORLY DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODELS. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS LINE STRETCHED FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF BOISE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AND ON INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS OF
230 PM MDT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MOST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE
SHORT WAVE...AS DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MEANING THE
THERE IS STILL AMPLE INSTABILITY BEHIND THE WAVE AND IT WILL NOT
SHUT OFF ALL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM
IN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OREGON EVEN THOUGH IT IS
NOT IN THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CELLS AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY 10-15 MPH. WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW...THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE IDAHO ZONES...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO SE OREGON. WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO WASHINGTON FROM THE NW. SHEAR WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS
THIS WAVE APPROACHES... LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT OWING TO ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GUST NEAR STORMS AS ALWAYS...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE BE UNEVENTFUL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY BUT IS
LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD BE DRIER BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 240259
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
859 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST TO SLOW THE EXIT OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER IN IDAHO UNTIL 9Z/3AM MDT...AND KEEP
ISOLATED RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH 6 AM MDT.
IDAHO TO MALHEUR COUNTY WAS ON THE NW FLANK OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS STILL MOIST AND
STEERING WINDS FROM THE NORTH WERE LIGHT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS
ALLOWED FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN /ARROWROCK DAM PICKED UP
OVER AN INCH/ AND HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER /OBSERVED
IN PARTS OF SE BOISE/. NEAR SUNSET VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL
OVERSHOOTING TOPS INCLUDING NEAR THE BOISE AIRPORT WHERE LIGHTNING
WAS NOT UNCOMMON LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH 3 AM MDT...THEN BE REINVIGORATED SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
DROPS OVER THE PACNW/IDAHO FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION....UNTIL 09Z NUMEROUS LOCALLY MVFR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. AFTER 09Z
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE BOISE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SUNDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY NORTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR IDAHO ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO
BE POORLY DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODELS. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS LINE STRETCHED FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF BOISE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AND ON INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS OF
230 PM MDT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MOST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE
SHORT WAVE...AS DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MEANING THE
THERE IS STILL AMPLE INSTABILITY BEHIND THE WAVE AND IT WILL NOT
SHUT OFF ALL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM
IN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OREGON EVEN THOUGH IT IS
NOT IN THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CELLS AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY 10-15 MPH. WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW...THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE IDAHO ZONES...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO SE OREGON. WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO WASHINGTON FROM THE NW. SHEAR WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS
THIS WAVE APPROACHES... LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT OWING TO ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GUST NEAR STORMS AS ALWAYS...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE BE UNEVENTFUL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY BUT IS
LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD BE DRIER BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 240259
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
859 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST TO SLOW THE EXIT OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER IN IDAHO UNTIL 9Z/3AM MDT...AND KEEP
ISOLATED RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH 6 AM MDT.
IDAHO TO MALHEUR COUNTY WAS ON THE NW FLANK OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS STILL MOIST AND
STEERING WINDS FROM THE NORTH WERE LIGHT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS
ALLOWED FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN /ARROWROCK DAM PICKED UP
OVER AN INCH/ AND HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER /OBSERVED
IN PARTS OF SE BOISE/. NEAR SUNSET VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL
OVERSHOOTING TOPS INCLUDING NEAR THE BOISE AIRPORT WHERE LIGHTNING
WAS NOT UNCOMMON LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH 3 AM MDT...THEN BE REINVIGORATED SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
DROPS OVER THE PACNW/IDAHO FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION....UNTIL 09Z NUMEROUS LOCALLY MVFR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. AFTER 09Z
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE BOISE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SUNDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY NORTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR IDAHO ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO
BE POORLY DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODELS. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS LINE STRETCHED FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF BOISE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AND ON INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS OF
230 PM MDT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MOST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE
SHORT WAVE...AS DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MEANING THE
THERE IS STILL AMPLE INSTABILITY BEHIND THE WAVE AND IT WILL NOT
SHUT OFF ALL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM
IN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OREGON EVEN THOUGH IT IS
NOT IN THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CELLS AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY 10-15 MPH. WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW...THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE IDAHO ZONES...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO SE OREGON. WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO WASHINGTON FROM THE NW. SHEAR WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS
THIS WAVE APPROACHES... LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT OWING TO ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GUST NEAR STORMS AS ALWAYS...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE BE UNEVENTFUL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY BUT IS
LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD BE DRIER BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 240259
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
859 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST TO SLOW THE EXIT OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER IN IDAHO UNTIL 9Z/3AM MDT...AND KEEP
ISOLATED RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH 6 AM MDT.
IDAHO TO MALHEUR COUNTY WAS ON THE NW FLANK OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS STILL MOIST AND
STEERING WINDS FROM THE NORTH WERE LIGHT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS
ALLOWED FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN /ARROWROCK DAM PICKED UP
OVER AN INCH/ AND HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER /OBSERVED
IN PARTS OF SE BOISE/. NEAR SUNSET VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL
OVERSHOOTING TOPS INCLUDING NEAR THE BOISE AIRPORT WHERE LIGHTNING
WAS NOT UNCOMMON LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH 3 AM MDT...THEN BE REINVIGORATED SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
DROPS OVER THE PACNW/IDAHO FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION....UNTIL 09Z NUMEROUS LOCALLY MVFR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. AFTER 09Z
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE BOISE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SUNDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY NORTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR IDAHO ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO
BE POORLY DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODELS. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS LINE STRETCHED FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF BOISE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AND ON INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS OF
230 PM MDT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MOST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE
SHORT WAVE...AS DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MEANING THE
THERE IS STILL AMPLE INSTABILITY BEHIND THE WAVE AND IT WILL NOT
SHUT OFF ALL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM
IN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OREGON EVEN THOUGH IT IS
NOT IN THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CELLS AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY 10-15 MPH. WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW...THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE IDAHO ZONES...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO SE OREGON. WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO WASHINGTON FROM THE NW. SHEAR WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS
THIS WAVE APPROACHES... LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT OWING TO ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GUST NEAR STORMS AS ALWAYS...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE BE UNEVENTFUL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY BUT IS
LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD BE DRIER BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPDT 240221
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
721 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS FIRED OFF OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CWA OVER KITTITAS AND YAKIMA COUNTIES AND ALSO MORE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL...ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE ISSUANCE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER STATEMENTS. THE CONVECTION IS
NOW BEGINNING TO DECREASE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE STABLE AIR WITH IT MEANING MORE SUNSHINE
AND LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOONS SO WILL KEEP
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA AND OVER THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUM READINGS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY LIGHT THOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS AT TIMES
IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY LOCATIONS ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
KYKM...KPDT...KALW BUT CIGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN 15 KTS. 88

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE
UP INTO OUR AREA AND COMBINING THIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. THE LOW PRESSURE FINALLY
MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION TOMORROW BUT LEFT OVER MOISTURE
MAINLY OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWAS WILL PRODUCE AFTN/EVE SHOWERS/TSRA AND
ALSO ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. BY MONDAY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTH WITH SHOWERS
AND TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUING TO BE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN FURTHER ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA...BUT IT MAY STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN ON FRIDAY...AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AN ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BRINGING
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 90 ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  77  49  74 /  20  10  20  10
ALW  54  79  53  76 /  20  10  20  10
PSC  54  84  53  81 /  10  10  10  10
YKM  54  82  52  77 /  10  20  20  10
HRI  52  82  51  79 /  10  10  10  10
ELN  54  80  52  76 /  20  20  20  10
RDM  38  76  38  71 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  49  73  44  71 /  30  20  20  20
GCD  44  75  42  73 /  20  20  10  20
DLS  54  74  53  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/82/88



000
FXUS66 KPDT 240221
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
721 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS FIRED OFF OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CWA OVER KITTITAS AND YAKIMA COUNTIES AND ALSO MORE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL...ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE ISSUANCE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER STATEMENTS. THE CONVECTION IS
NOW BEGINNING TO DECREASE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE STABLE AIR WITH IT MEANING MORE SUNSHINE
AND LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOONS SO WILL KEEP
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA AND OVER THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUM READINGS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY LIGHT THOUGH THERE WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS AT TIMES
IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY LOCATIONS ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
KYKM...KPDT...KALW BUT CIGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN 15 KTS. 88

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE
UP INTO OUR AREA AND COMBINING THIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. THE LOW PRESSURE FINALLY
MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION TOMORROW BUT LEFT OVER MOISTURE
MAINLY OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWAS WILL PRODUCE AFTN/EVE SHOWERS/TSRA AND
ALSO ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. BY MONDAY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTH WITH SHOWERS
AND TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUING TO BE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN FURTHER ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA...BUT IT MAY STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN ON FRIDAY...AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AN ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BRINGING
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 90 ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  77  49  74 /  20  10  20  10
ALW  54  79  53  76 /  20  10  20  10
PSC  54  84  53  81 /  10  10  10  10
YKM  54  82  52  77 /  10  20  20  10
HRI  52  82  51  79 /  10  10  10  10
ELN  54  80  52  76 /  20  20  20  10
RDM  38  76  38  71 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  49  73  44  71 /  30  20  20  20
GCD  44  75  42  73 /  20  20  10  20
DLS  54  74  53  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/82/88




000
FXUS66 KPDT 232234 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
334 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE
UP INTO OUR AREA AND COMBINING THIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. THE LOW PRESSURE FINALLY
MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION TOMORROW BUT LEFT OVER MOISTURE
MAINLY OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWAS WILL PRODUCE AFTN/EVE SHOWERS/TSRA AND
ALSO ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. BY MONDAY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTH WITH SHOWERS
AND TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUING TO BE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN FURTHER ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA...BUT IT MAY STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN ON FRIDAY...AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AN ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BRINGING
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 90 ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS NEAR KYKM THIS EVENING...BUT THREAT IS VERY
LOW ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KT THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT 15-25 KT AT KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
GO TERRAIN DRIVEN IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT KDLS WHERE THEY WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY AT 10-20 KT. DRIER CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WIND CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  77  49  74 /  20  10  20  10
ALW  54  79  53  76 /  20  10  20  10
PSC  54  84  53  81 /  10  10  10  10
YKM  54  82  52  77 /  10  20  20  10
HRI  52  82  51  79 /  10  10  10  10
ELN  54  80  52  76 /  20  20  20  10
RDM  38  76  38  71 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  49  73  44  71 /  30  20  20  20
GCD  44  75  42  73 /  20  20  10  20
DLS  54  74  53  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/82/82



000
FXUS66 KPDT 232234 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
334 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE
UP INTO OUR AREA AND COMBINING THIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. THE LOW PRESSURE FINALLY
MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION TOMORROW BUT LEFT OVER MOISTURE
MAINLY OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWAS WILL PRODUCE AFTN/EVE SHOWERS/TSRA AND
ALSO ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. BY MONDAY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTH WITH SHOWERS
AND TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUING TO BE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN FURTHER ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA...BUT IT MAY STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN ON FRIDAY...AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AN ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BRINGING
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 90 ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS NEAR KYKM THIS EVENING...BUT THREAT IS VERY
LOW ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KT THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT 15-25 KT AT KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
GO TERRAIN DRIVEN IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT KDLS WHERE THEY WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY AT 10-20 KT. DRIER CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WIND CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  77  49  74 /  20  10  20  10
ALW  54  79  53  76 /  20  10  20  10
PSC  54  84  53  81 /  10  10  10  10
YKM  54  82  52  77 /  10  20  20  10
HRI  52  82  51  79 /  10  10  10  10
ELN  54  80  52  76 /  20  20  20  10
RDM  38  76  38  71 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  49  73  44  71 /  30  20  20  20
GCD  44  75  42  73 /  20  20  10  20
DLS  54  74  53  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/82/82




000
FXUS66 KMFR 232203 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
158 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE REGION THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVERGANT FLOW WITH INSTABILITY
OVER THE WARNERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY CONFINED TO THAT AREA AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGING OVER
THE AREA...AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENING ON THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGES. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHETCO EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAST. THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND
TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH INLAND ON TUESDAY
ALSO. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO FEED WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH THE CONVERGANCE ZONE OVER SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTY BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.
INSTABILITY SPREADS NORTH UP THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY BUT WITH VERY
WEAK STEERING WINDS ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD STAY LATCHED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES UP THE CASCADE
CREST ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY THE SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FEED INCREASES AND SPREADS NORTH INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIGHTLY
FARTHER WEST FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL KEEP HIGHER MTNS OBSCURED THOUGH NOTABLE CLEARING IS
SEEN IN SATELLITE ACROSS CURRY...JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES.
LOWER CIGS APPARENT FURTHER EAST NEAR KLKV AND KAAT. FAIRLY GOOD
CONFIDENCE AFTER MAINLY VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
ALL TERMINALS...THAT MVFR CIGS WILL RE-DEVELOP BY 06Z WITH LOCAL IFR
CIGS AND FOG AT THE COAST. APPRECIABLE CLEARING TREND IS ANTICIPATED
LATE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. MTS

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 23 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BETWEEN 10 NM AND 40
NM OFFSHORE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SVEN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 232203 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
158 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE REGION THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVERGANT FLOW WITH INSTABILITY
OVER THE WARNERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY CONFINED TO THAT AREA AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGING OVER
THE AREA...AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENING ON THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGES. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHETCO EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAST. THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND
TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH INLAND ON TUESDAY
ALSO. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO FEED WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH THE CONVERGANCE ZONE OVER SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTY BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.
INSTABILITY SPREADS NORTH UP THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY BUT WITH VERY
WEAK STEERING WINDS ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD STAY LATCHED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES UP THE CASCADE
CREST ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY THE SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FEED INCREASES AND SPREADS NORTH INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIGHTLY
FARTHER WEST FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL KEEP HIGHER MTNS OBSCURED THOUGH NOTABLE CLEARING IS
SEEN IN SATELLITE ACROSS CURRY...JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES.
LOWER CIGS APPARENT FURTHER EAST NEAR KLKV AND KAAT. FAIRLY GOOD
CONFIDENCE AFTER MAINLY VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
ALL TERMINALS...THAT MVFR CIGS WILL RE-DEVELOP BY 06Z WITH LOCAL IFR
CIGS AND FOG AT THE COAST. APPRECIABLE CLEARING TREND IS ANTICIPATED
LATE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. MTS

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 23 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BETWEEN 10 NM AND 40
NM OFFSHORE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SVEN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 232203 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
158 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE REGION THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVERGANT FLOW WITH INSTABILITY
OVER THE WARNERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY CONFINED TO THAT AREA AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGING OVER
THE AREA...AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENING ON THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGES. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHETCO EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAST. THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND
TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH INLAND ON TUESDAY
ALSO. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO FEED WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH THE CONVERGANCE ZONE OVER SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTY BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.
INSTABILITY SPREADS NORTH UP THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY BUT WITH VERY
WEAK STEERING WINDS ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD STAY LATCHED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES UP THE CASCADE
CREST ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY THE SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FEED INCREASES AND SPREADS NORTH INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIGHTLY
FARTHER WEST FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL KEEP HIGHER MTNS OBSCURED THOUGH NOTABLE CLEARING IS
SEEN IN SATELLITE ACROSS CURRY...JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES.
LOWER CIGS APPARENT FURTHER EAST NEAR KLKV AND KAAT. FAIRLY GOOD
CONFIDENCE AFTER MAINLY VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
ALL TERMINALS...THAT MVFR CIGS WILL RE-DEVELOP BY 06Z WITH LOCAL IFR
CIGS AND FOG AT THE COAST. APPRECIABLE CLEARING TREND IS ANTICIPATED
LATE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. MTS

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 23 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BETWEEN 10 NM AND 40
NM OFFSHORE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SVEN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 232203 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
158 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE REGION THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVERGANT FLOW WITH INSTABILITY
OVER THE WARNERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY CONFINED TO THAT AREA AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGING OVER
THE AREA...AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENING ON THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGES. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHETCO EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAST. THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND
TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH INLAND ON TUESDAY
ALSO. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO FEED WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH THE CONVERGANCE ZONE OVER SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTY BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.
INSTABILITY SPREADS NORTH UP THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY BUT WITH VERY
WEAK STEERING WINDS ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD STAY LATCHED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES UP THE CASCADE
CREST ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY THE SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FEED INCREASES AND SPREADS NORTH INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIGHTLY
FARTHER WEST FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL KEEP HIGHER MTNS OBSCURED THOUGH NOTABLE CLEARING IS
SEEN IN SATELLITE ACROSS CURRY...JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES.
LOWER CIGS APPARENT FURTHER EAST NEAR KLKV AND KAAT. FAIRLY GOOD
CONFIDENCE AFTER MAINLY VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
ALL TERMINALS...THAT MVFR CIGS WILL RE-DEVELOP BY 06Z WITH LOCAL IFR
CIGS AND FOG AT THE COAST. APPRECIABLE CLEARING TREND IS ANTICIPATED
LATE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. MTS

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 23 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BETWEEN 10 NM AND 40
NM OFFSHORE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SVEN



000
FXUS66 KPDT 232135
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
229 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE
UP INTO OUR AREA AND COMBINING THIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. THE LOW PRESSURE FINALLY
MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION TOMORROW BUT LEFT OVER MOISTURE
MAINLY OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWAS WILL PRODUCE AFTN/EVE SHOWERS/TSRA AND
ALSO ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. BY MONDAY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTH WITH SHOWERS
AND TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUING TO BE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN FURTHER ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA...BUT IT MAY STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN ON FRIDAY...AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AN ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BRINGING
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 90 ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS... DECREASING BY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS NEAR KRDM OR KBDN TODAY...BUT THREAT IS MINIMAL. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KT TODAY...EXCEPT 15-25 KT AT KDLS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND GO TERRAIN DRIVEN IN MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT KDLS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT 10-20 KT.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  77  49  74 /  20  10  20  10
ALW  54  79  53  76 /  20  10  20  10
PSC  54  84  53  81 /  10  10  10  10
YKM  54  82  52  77 /  10  20  20  10
HRI  52  82  51  79 /  10  10  10  10
ELN  54  80  52  76 /  20  20  20  10
RDM  38  76  38  71 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  49  73  44  71 /  30  20  20  20
GCD  44  75  42  73 /  20  20  10  20
DLS  54  74  53  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/82/82



000
FXUS66 KPDT 232135
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
229 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE
UP INTO OUR AREA AND COMBINING THIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. THE LOW PRESSURE FINALLY
MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION TOMORROW BUT LEFT OVER MOISTURE
MAINLY OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWAS WILL PRODUCE AFTN/EVE SHOWERS/TSRA AND
ALSO ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. BY MONDAY ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTH WITH SHOWERS
AND TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUING TO BE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN FURTHER ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA...BUT IT MAY STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN ON FRIDAY...AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AN ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BRINGING
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 90 ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS... DECREASING BY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS NEAR KRDM OR KBDN TODAY...BUT THREAT IS MINIMAL. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KT TODAY...EXCEPT 15-25 KT AT KDLS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND GO TERRAIN DRIVEN IN MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT KDLS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT 10-20 KT.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  77  49  74 /  20  10  20  10
ALW  54  79  53  76 /  20  10  20  10
PSC  54  84  53  81 /  10  10  10  10
YKM  54  82  52  77 /  10  20  20  10
HRI  52  82  51  79 /  10  10  10  10
ELN  54  80  52  76 /  20  20  20  10
RDM  38  76  38  71 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  49  73  44  71 /  30  20  20  20
GCD  44  75  42  73 /  20  20  10  20
DLS  54  74  53  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/82/82




000
FXUS66 KPQR 232129
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
229 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING SOUTH WELL INTO
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL
B.C. COAST AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. SUNDAY AND OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED MODERATE
TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL
AS LOCAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY
HOURS. THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON LOW FROM MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH
AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST LAST NIGHT IS ALREADY WELL
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM DID
REINFORCED THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS MODERATE TO STRONG AND THUS
THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON SATELLITE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING UP AT ALL TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED SO
FAR SOUTH...THE SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY TODAY HAVE WANED
CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
LATER TODAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS A BIT DOUBTFUL. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 60 AND 65...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 AT THE COAST.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN/REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AS WELL AS FINALLY TURN THE
WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WE MAY SEE A
FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AROUND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
PORTLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON ON MONDAY
SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING OF THE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES ON
MONDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT AGAIN. HOWEVER THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EITHER.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON DRIFTS TO
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE GET SOME LATE DAY SUN BREAKS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE REGION. A THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD
PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS INLAND CURRENTLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR WITH
CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3500 FT. INLAND CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT. THE COAST
REMAINS MVFR UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LOCAL AREAS OF IFR CIGS.
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING AREAS OF SUN BREAKS ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE BREAKS TO PERSIST FOR LONG.
CONDITIONS INLAND WILL DETERIORATE TOWARDS MVFR AFTER SUNSET. THE
MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUN...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBY LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3500 FT. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 5000
FT. MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT RETURN AFTER 06Z AND LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND
PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE B.C. COAST ARE
PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 232129
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
229 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING SOUTH WELL INTO
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL
B.C. COAST AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. SUNDAY AND OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED MODERATE
TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL
AS LOCAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY
HOURS. THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON LOW FROM MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH
AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST LAST NIGHT IS ALREADY WELL
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM DID
REINFORCED THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS MODERATE TO STRONG AND THUS
THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON SATELLITE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING UP AT ALL TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED SO
FAR SOUTH...THE SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY TODAY HAVE WANED
CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
LATER TODAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS A BIT DOUBTFUL. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 60 AND 65...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 AT THE COAST.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN/REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AS WELL AS FINALLY TURN THE
WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WE MAY SEE A
FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AROUND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
PORTLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON ON MONDAY
SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING OF THE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES ON
MONDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT AGAIN. HOWEVER THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EITHER.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON DRIFTS TO
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE GET SOME LATE DAY SUN BREAKS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE REGION. A THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD
PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS INLAND CURRENTLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR WITH
CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3500 FT. INLAND CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT. THE COAST
REMAINS MVFR UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LOCAL AREAS OF IFR CIGS.
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING AREAS OF SUN BREAKS ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE BREAKS TO PERSIST FOR LONG.
CONDITIONS INLAND WILL DETERIORATE TOWARDS MVFR AFTER SUNSET. THE
MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUN...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBY LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3500 FT. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 5000
FT. MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT RETURN AFTER 06Z AND LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND
PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE B.C. COAST ARE
PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 232129
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
229 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING SOUTH WELL INTO
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL
B.C. COAST AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. SUNDAY AND OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED MODERATE
TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL
AS LOCAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY
HOURS. THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON LOW FROM MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH
AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST LAST NIGHT IS ALREADY WELL
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM DID
REINFORCED THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS MODERATE TO STRONG AND THUS
THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON SATELLITE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING UP AT ALL TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED SO
FAR SOUTH...THE SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY TODAY HAVE WANED
CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
LATER TODAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS A BIT DOUBTFUL. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 60 AND 65...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 AT THE COAST.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN/REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AS WELL AS FINALLY TURN THE
WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WE MAY SEE A
FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AROUND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
PORTLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON ON MONDAY
SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING OF THE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES ON
MONDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT AGAIN. HOWEVER THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EITHER.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON DRIFTS TO
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE GET SOME LATE DAY SUN BREAKS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE REGION. A THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD
PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS INLAND CURRENTLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR WITH
CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3500 FT. INLAND CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT. THE COAST
REMAINS MVFR UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LOCAL AREAS OF IFR CIGS.
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING AREAS OF SUN BREAKS ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE BREAKS TO PERSIST FOR LONG.
CONDITIONS INLAND WILL DETERIORATE TOWARDS MVFR AFTER SUNSET. THE
MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUN...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBY LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3500 FT. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 5000
FT. MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT RETURN AFTER 06Z AND LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND
PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE B.C. COAST ARE
PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 232129
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
229 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING SOUTH WELL INTO
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL
B.C. COAST AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. SUNDAY AND OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED MODERATE
TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL
AS LOCAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY
HOURS. THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON LOW FROM MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH
AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST LAST NIGHT IS ALREADY WELL
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM DID
REINFORCED THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS MODERATE TO STRONG AND THUS
THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON SATELLITE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING UP AT ALL TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED SO
FAR SOUTH...THE SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY TODAY HAVE WANED
CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
LATER TODAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS A BIT DOUBTFUL. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 60 AND 65...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 AT THE COAST.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN/REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AS WELL AS FINALLY TURN THE
WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WE MAY SEE A
FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AROUND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
PORTLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON ON MONDAY
SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING OF THE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES ON
MONDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT AGAIN. HOWEVER THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EITHER.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON DRIFTS TO
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE GET SOME LATE DAY SUN BREAKS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE REGION. A THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD
PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS INLAND CURRENTLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR WITH
CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3500 FT. INLAND CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT. THE COAST
REMAINS MVFR UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LOCAL AREAS OF IFR CIGS.
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING AREAS OF SUN BREAKS ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE BREAKS TO PERSIST FOR LONG.
CONDITIONS INLAND WILL DETERIORATE TOWARDS MVFR AFTER SUNSET. THE
MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUN...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBY LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3500 FT. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 5000
FT. MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT RETURN AFTER 06Z AND LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND
PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE B.C. COAST ARE
PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 232129
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
229 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING SOUTH WELL INTO
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL
B.C. COAST AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN B.C. SUNDAY AND OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED MODERATE
TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL
AS LOCAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY
HOURS. THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON LOW FROM MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH
AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
THAT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST LAST NIGHT IS ALREADY WELL
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM DID
REINFORCED THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS MODERATE TO STRONG AND THUS
THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON SATELLITE AS THOUGH THEY WILL
HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING UP AT ALL TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED SO
FAR SOUTH...THE SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY TODAY HAVE WANED
CONSIDERABLY. COULD STILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
LATER TODAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS A BIT DOUBTFUL. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 60 AND 65...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 AT THE COAST.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN/REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AS WELL AS FINALLY TURN THE
WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WE MAY SEE A
FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AROUND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
PORTLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON ON MONDAY
SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING OF THE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES ON
MONDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT AGAIN. HOWEVER THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA EITHER.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON DRIFTS TO
NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE GET SOME LATE DAY SUN BREAKS THAT COULD LEAD TO
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY UP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CASCADES.  BROUGHT TEMPS BACK DOWN SOME THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE REGION STAYING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES DO WARM SOME THU-SAT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE REGION. A THERMAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SET UP A GOOD
PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH CLEARER
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS INLAND CURRENTLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR WITH
CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3500 FT. INLAND CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT. THE COAST
REMAINS MVFR UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LOCAL AREAS OF IFR CIGS.
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING AREAS OF SUN BREAKS ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE BREAKS TO PERSIST FOR LONG.
CONDITIONS INLAND WILL DETERIORATE TOWARDS MVFR AFTER SUNSET. THE
MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUN...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBY LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3500 FT. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 5000
FT. MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT RETURN AFTER 06Z AND LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES OVER THE INLAND
PAC NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ADVISORY GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF NEWPORT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
IT WILL COME TO FRUITION. STRONGER WINDS OFF OF THE B.C. COAST ARE
PRODUCING A FRESH SWELL OUT OF THE NW AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 232058
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
158 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE REGION THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVERGANT FLOW WITH INSTABILITY
OVER THE WARNERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY CONFINED TO THAT AREA AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGING OVER
THE AREA...AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENING ON THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGES. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHETCO EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAST. THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND
TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH INLAND ON TUESDAY
ALSO. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO FEED WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH THE CONVERGANCE ZONE OVER SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTY BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.
INSTABILITY SPREADS NORTH UP THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY BUT WITH VERY
WEAK STEERING WINDS ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD STAY LATCHED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES UP THE CASCADE
CREST ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY THE SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FEED INCREASES AND SPREADS NORTH INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIGHTLY
FARTHER WEST FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. BUT,
ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO CONTINUE AREAS OF COASTAL IFR AND INLAND
MVFR CIGS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CIGS WILL LIFT AND BREAK DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE AFTERNOON HEATING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVER THE WARNER MOUNTAINS.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 23 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BETWEEN 10 NM AND 40
NM OFFSHORE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SVEN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 232058
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
158 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE REGION THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVERGANT FLOW WITH INSTABILITY
OVER THE WARNERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY CONFINED TO THAT AREA AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGING OVER
THE AREA...AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENING ON THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGES. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHETCO EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAST. THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND
TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH INLAND ON TUESDAY
ALSO. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO FEED WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH THE CONVERGANCE ZONE OVER SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTY BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.
INSTABILITY SPREADS NORTH UP THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY BUT WITH VERY
WEAK STEERING WINDS ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD STAY LATCHED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES UP THE CASCADE
CREST ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY THE SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FEED INCREASES AND SPREADS NORTH INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIGHTLY
FARTHER WEST FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. BUT,
ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO CONTINUE AREAS OF COASTAL IFR AND INLAND
MVFR CIGS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CIGS WILL LIFT AND BREAK DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE AFTERNOON HEATING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVER THE WARNER MOUNTAINS.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 23 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BETWEEN 10 NM AND 40
NM OFFSHORE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SVEN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 232058
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
158 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE REGION THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVERGANT FLOW WITH INSTABILITY
OVER THE WARNERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY CONFINED TO THAT AREA AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGING OVER
THE AREA...AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENING ON THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGES. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHETCO EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAST. THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND
TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH INLAND ON TUESDAY
ALSO. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO FEED WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH THE CONVERGANCE ZONE OVER SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTY BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.
INSTABILITY SPREADS NORTH UP THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY BUT WITH VERY
WEAK STEERING WINDS ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD STAY LATCHED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES UP THE CASCADE
CREST ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY THE SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FEED INCREASES AND SPREADS NORTH INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIGHTLY
FARTHER WEST FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. BUT,
ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO CONTINUE AREAS OF COASTAL IFR AND INLAND
MVFR CIGS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CIGS WILL LIFT AND BREAK DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE AFTERNOON HEATING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVER THE WARNER MOUNTAINS.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 23 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BETWEEN 10 NM AND 40
NM OFFSHORE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SVEN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 232058
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
158 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE REGION THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVERGANT FLOW WITH INSTABILITY
OVER THE WARNERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY CONFINED TO THAT AREA AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGING OVER
THE AREA...AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENING ON THE COAST. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGES. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHETCO EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COAST. THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND
TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH INLAND ON TUESDAY
ALSO. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO FEED WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH THE CONVERGANCE ZONE OVER SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTY BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.
INSTABILITY SPREADS NORTH UP THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY BUT WITH VERY
WEAK STEERING WINDS ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD STAY LATCHED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS INSTABILITY INCREASES UP THE CASCADE
CREST ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY THE SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FEED INCREASES AND SPREADS NORTH INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIGHTLY
FARTHER WEST FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. BUT,
ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO CONTINUE AREAS OF COASTAL IFR AND INLAND
MVFR CIGS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CIGS WILL LIFT AND BREAK DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE AFTERNOON HEATING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVER THE WARNER MOUNTAINS.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 23 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BETWEEN 10 NM AND 40
NM OFFSHORE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SVEN




000
FXUS65 KBOI 232041
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR IDAHO ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO
BE POORLY DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODELS. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS LINE STRETCHED FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF BOISE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AND ON INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS OF
230 PM MDT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MOST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE
SHORT WAVE...AS DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MEANING THE
THERE IS STILL AMPLE INSTABILITY BEHIND THE WAVE AND IT WILL NOT
SHUT OFF ALL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM
IN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OREGON EVEN THOUGH IT IS
NOT IN THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CELLS AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY 10-15 MPH. WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW...THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE IDAHO ZONES...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO SE OREGON. WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO WASHINGTON FROM THE NW. SHEAR WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS
THIS WAVE APPROACHES... LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT OWING TO ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GUST NEAR STORMS AS ALWAYS...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE BE UNEVENTFUL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY BUT IS
LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD BE DRIER BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS
TO 30KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NORTHEAST 15-
25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 232041
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR IDAHO ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO
BE POORLY DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODELS. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS LINE STRETCHED FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF BOISE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AND ON INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS OF
230 PM MDT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MOST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE
SHORT WAVE...AS DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MEANING THE
THERE IS STILL AMPLE INSTABILITY BEHIND THE WAVE AND IT WILL NOT
SHUT OFF ALL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM
IN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OREGON EVEN THOUGH IT IS
NOT IN THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CELLS AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY 10-15 MPH. WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW...THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE IDAHO ZONES...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO SE OREGON. WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO WASHINGTON FROM THE NW. SHEAR WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS
THIS WAVE APPROACHES... LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT OWING TO ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GUST NEAR STORMS AS ALWAYS...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE BE UNEVENTFUL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY BUT IS
LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD BE DRIER BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS
TO 30KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NORTHEAST 15-
25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 232041
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR IDAHO ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO
BE POORLY DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODELS. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS LINE STRETCHED FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF BOISE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AND ON INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS OF
230 PM MDT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MOST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE
SHORT WAVE...AS DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MEANING THE
THERE IS STILL AMPLE INSTABILITY BEHIND THE WAVE AND IT WILL NOT
SHUT OFF ALL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM
IN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OREGON EVEN THOUGH IT IS
NOT IN THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CELLS AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY 10-15 MPH. WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW...THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE IDAHO ZONES...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO SE OREGON. WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO WASHINGTON FROM THE NW. SHEAR WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS
THIS WAVE APPROACHES... LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT OWING TO ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GUST NEAR STORMS AS ALWAYS...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE BE UNEVENTFUL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY BUT IS
LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD BE DRIER BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS
TO 30KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NORTHEAST 15-
25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 232041
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR IDAHO ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO
BE POORLY DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODELS. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS LINE STRETCHED FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF BOISE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AND ON INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS OF
230 PM MDT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MOST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE
SHORT WAVE...AS DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MEANING THE
THERE IS STILL AMPLE INSTABILITY BEHIND THE WAVE AND IT WILL NOT
SHUT OFF ALL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM
IN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OREGON EVEN THOUGH IT IS
NOT IN THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CELLS AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY 10-15 MPH. WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW...THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE IDAHO ZONES...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO SE OREGON. WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO WASHINGTON FROM THE NW. SHEAR WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS
THIS WAVE APPROACHES... LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT OWING TO ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GUST NEAR STORMS AS ALWAYS...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE BE UNEVENTFUL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY BUT IS
LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD BE DRIER BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS
TO 30KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NORTHEAST 15-
25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS66 KPDT 231741 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1040 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO OUR AREA TODAY
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STRONG
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE WALLOWA COUNTY REGION AND THE
ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE THAT ALSO INCLUDES THE BLUE MOUNTAIN AREA. IN ADDITION THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...
DECREASING BY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS NEAR KRDM OR
KBDN TODAY...BUT THREAT IS MINIMAL. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AT
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...EXCEPT 15-25 KT AT KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND GO TERRAIN DRIVEN IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT KDLS WHERE
THEY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT 10-20 KT.  82

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
ONE LAST GOOD AREA OF MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE. EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME AREAS DRY OUT. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT WILL SEE THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOME
MOUNTAIN AREAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME MOISTURE
WILL LINGER. ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP INTO WASHINGTON FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING DURING THE EVENING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS
IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WASHINGTON BASIN SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE GETTING KICKED EWD AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH GETS
ESTABLISHED OFF THE NW COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY POTENT OR OVERLY MOIST WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THESE
AREAS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT BY SATURDAY A MORE SLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING WITH TIME SO THAT
BY FRIDAY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  51  79  51 /  40  20  10  20
ALW  78  55  81  55 /  30  20  10  20
PSC  84  55  86  55 /  30  10  10  20
YKM  81  56  83  54 /  40  10  20  20
HRI  81  53  84  53 /  40  10  10  10
ELN  82  55  80  54 /  30  20  20  20
RDM  70  39  77  39 /  20  10  10  10
LGD  72  50  74  46 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  72  45  77  44 /  40  20  10  10
DLS  72  55  76  55 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 231741 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1040 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO OUR AREA TODAY
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STRONG
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE WALLOWA COUNTY REGION AND THE
ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE THAT ALSO INCLUDES THE BLUE MOUNTAIN AREA. IN ADDITION THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...
DECREASING BY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS NEAR KRDM OR
KBDN TODAY...BUT THREAT IS MINIMAL. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AT
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...EXCEPT 15-25 KT AT KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND GO TERRAIN DRIVEN IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT KDLS WHERE
THEY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT 10-20 KT.  82

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
ONE LAST GOOD AREA OF MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE. EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME AREAS DRY OUT. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT WILL SEE THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOME
MOUNTAIN AREAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME MOISTURE
WILL LINGER. ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP INTO WASHINGTON FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING DURING THE EVENING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS
IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WASHINGTON BASIN SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE GETTING KICKED EWD AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH GETS
ESTABLISHED OFF THE NW COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY POTENT OR OVERLY MOIST WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THESE
AREAS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT BY SATURDAY A MORE SLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING WITH TIME SO THAT
BY FRIDAY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  51  79  51 /  40  20  10  20
ALW  78  55  81  55 /  30  20  10  20
PSC  84  55  86  55 /  30  10  10  20
YKM  81  56  83  54 /  40  10  20  20
HRI  81  53  84  53 /  40  10  10  10
ELN  82  55  80  54 /  30  20  20  20
RDM  70  39  77  39 /  20  10  10  10
LGD  72  50  74  46 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  72  45  77  44 /  40  20  10  10
DLS  72  55  76  55 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/



000
FXUS66 KPDT 231741 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1040 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO OUR AREA TODAY
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STRONG
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE WALLOWA COUNTY REGION AND THE
ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE THAT ALSO INCLUDES THE BLUE MOUNTAIN AREA. IN ADDITION THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...
DECREASING BY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS NEAR KRDM OR
KBDN TODAY...BUT THREAT IS MINIMAL. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AT
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...EXCEPT 15-25 KT AT KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND GO TERRAIN DRIVEN IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT KDLS WHERE
THEY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT 10-20 KT.  82

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
ONE LAST GOOD AREA OF MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE. EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME AREAS DRY OUT. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT WILL SEE THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOME
MOUNTAIN AREAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME MOISTURE
WILL LINGER. ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP INTO WASHINGTON FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING DURING THE EVENING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS
IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WASHINGTON BASIN SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE GETTING KICKED EWD AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH GETS
ESTABLISHED OFF THE NW COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY POTENT OR OVERLY MOIST WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THESE
AREAS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT BY SATURDAY A MORE SLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING WITH TIME SO THAT
BY FRIDAY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  51  79  51 /  40  20  10  20
ALW  78  55  81  55 /  30  20  10  20
PSC  84  55  86  55 /  30  10  10  20
YKM  81  56  83  54 /  40  10  20  20
HRI  81  53  84  53 /  40  10  10  10
ELN  82  55  80  54 /  30  20  20  20
RDM  70  39  77  39 /  20  10  10  10
LGD  72  50  74  46 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  72  45  77  44 /  40  20  10  10
DLS  72  55  76  55 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 231741 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1040 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO OUR AREA TODAY
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STRONG
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE WALLOWA COUNTY REGION AND THE
ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE THAT ALSO INCLUDES THE BLUE MOUNTAIN AREA. IN ADDITION THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...
DECREASING BY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS NEAR KRDM OR
KBDN TODAY...BUT THREAT IS MINIMAL. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AT
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...EXCEPT 15-25 KT AT KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND GO TERRAIN DRIVEN IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT KDLS WHERE
THEY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT 10-20 KT.  82

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
ONE LAST GOOD AREA OF MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE. EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME AREAS DRY OUT. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT WILL SEE THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOME
MOUNTAIN AREAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME MOISTURE
WILL LINGER. ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP INTO WASHINGTON FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING DURING THE EVENING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS
IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WASHINGTON BASIN SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE GETTING KICKED EWD AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH GETS
ESTABLISHED OFF THE NW COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY POTENT OR OVERLY MOIST WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THESE
AREAS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT BY SATURDAY A MORE SLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING WITH TIME SO THAT
BY FRIDAY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  51  79  51 /  40  20  10  20
ALW  78  55  81  55 /  30  20  10  20
PSC  84  55  86  55 /  30  10  10  20
YKM  81  56  83  54 /  40  10  20  20
HRI  81  53  84  53 /  40  10  10  10
ELN  82  55  80  54 /  30  20  20  20
RDM  70  39  77  39 /  20  10  10  10
LGD  72  50  74  46 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  72  45  77  44 /  40  20  10  10
DLS  72  55  76  55 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 231741 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1040 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO OUR AREA TODAY
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STRONG
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE WALLOWA COUNTY REGION AND THE
ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE THAT ALSO INCLUDES THE BLUE MOUNTAIN AREA. IN ADDITION THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...
DECREASING BY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS NEAR KRDM OR
KBDN TODAY...BUT THREAT IS MINIMAL. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AT
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...EXCEPT 15-25 KT AT KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND GO TERRAIN DRIVEN IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT KDLS WHERE
THEY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT 10-20 KT.  82

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
ONE LAST GOOD AREA OF MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE. EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME AREAS DRY OUT. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT WILL SEE THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOME
MOUNTAIN AREAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME MOISTURE
WILL LINGER. ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP INTO WASHINGTON FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING DURING THE EVENING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS
IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WASHINGTON BASIN SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE GETTING KICKED EWD AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH GETS
ESTABLISHED OFF THE NW COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY POTENT OR OVERLY MOIST WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THESE
AREAS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT BY SATURDAY A MORE SLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING WITH TIME SO THAT
BY FRIDAY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  51  79  51 /  40  20  10  20
ALW  78  55  81  55 /  30  20  10  20
PSC  84  55  86  55 /  30  10  10  20
YKM  81  56  83  54 /  40  10  20  20
HRI  81  53  84  53 /  40  10  10  10
ELN  82  55  80  54 /  30  20  20  20
RDM  70  39  77  39 /  20  10  10  10
LGD  72  50  74  46 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  72  45  77  44 /  40  20  10  10
DLS  72  55  76  55 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 231741 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1040 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO OUR AREA TODAY
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STRONG
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE WALLOWA COUNTY REGION AND THE
ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE THAT ALSO INCLUDES THE BLUE MOUNTAIN AREA. IN ADDITION THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...
DECREASING BY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS NEAR KRDM OR
KBDN TODAY...BUT THREAT IS MINIMAL. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AT
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...EXCEPT 15-25 KT AT KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND GO TERRAIN DRIVEN IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT KDLS WHERE
THEY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT 10-20 KT.  82

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
ONE LAST GOOD AREA OF MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE. EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME AREAS DRY OUT. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT WILL SEE THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOME
MOUNTAIN AREAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME MOISTURE
WILL LINGER. ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP INTO WASHINGTON FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING DURING THE EVENING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS
IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WASHINGTON BASIN SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE GETTING KICKED EWD AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH GETS
ESTABLISHED OFF THE NW COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY POTENT OR OVERLY MOIST WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THESE
AREAS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT BY SATURDAY A MORE SLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING WITH TIME SO THAT
BY FRIDAY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  51  79  51 /  40  20  10  20
ALW  78  55  81  55 /  30  20  10  20
PSC  84  55  86  55 /  30  10  10  20
YKM  81  56  83  54 /  40  10  20  20
HRI  81  53  84  53 /  40  10  10  10
ELN  82  55  80  54 /  30  20  20  20
RDM  70  39  77  39 /  20  10  10  10
LGD  72  50  74  46 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  72  45  77  44 /  40  20  10  10
DLS  72  55  76  55 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231652
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
952 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST AND WILL BE IN CALIFORNIA BY THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WAS
CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN B.C.
SUNDAY AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THE MAIN
RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL AS SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY HOURS. THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON
LOW FROM MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST ENOUGH AROUND THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO
SEE MORE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH WARMING
TEMPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWED THE SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST IS ALREADY MOVING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND IT WILL BE WELL INTO CALIFORNIA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT HAS REINFORCED THE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS MODERATE TO
STRONG AND THUS THE LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING AT ALL
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALSO CONTINUED THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOME SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL OREGON INTO
THE CASCADES AND EVEN INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND AREAS EARLIER
THIS MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LIGHT ECHOES WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS
MAY STILL BACKDOOR INTO THE HIGH CASCADES THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL B.C. COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN B.C. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN/REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW...AS WELL AS FINALLY TURN THE
WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL
A RISK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WE MAY SEE A
FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AROUND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
PORTLAND. THE POSITION OF THE LOW INLAND OVER WASHINGTON ON MONDAY
SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING OF THE MARINE CLOUDS WEST OF THE CASCADES ON
MONDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT AGAIN. BUT THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE REGION...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT DROPS THE LOW
ALONG OR EAST OF THE CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES. THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL
SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL
RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY MVFR WITH CIGS
AROUND 2500 FT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. INLAND CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO
RISE THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD TURN VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY FOR THE INTERIOR
VALLEY...BUT DUE TO A DEEP MARINE LAYER THIS MORNING THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP. ANY BREAKS THAT DO FORM WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED WITH INLAND CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MVFR
TONIGHT. THE COAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR UNDER WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUN. THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS AND VSBY RETURN TO
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING AND SHOULD TURN VFR AFTER 22Z WITH CIGS AOB 5000 FT. MVFR
CIGS LOOK TO RETURN TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND BRINGS
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NOT MUCH CONCERN FOR SPEEDS AS HIGHEST WIND GUSTS STAY SEVERAL KTS
BELOW THE 21 KT CRITERIA. WINDS OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST...HOWEVER...WILL BRING A CHOPPY FRESH SWELL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS BEFORE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND LONGER PERIOD WNW SWELL DOMINATES
THE WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. /JBONK
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 231634
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
930 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP
FIELDS FOR THIS MORNING BASED UPON THE RADAR RETURNS AS SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE
EAST SIDE AND MOST OF THE CASCADES. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK. -SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BUT SINCE IT IS MOVING ACROSS
THIS MORNING..WE LACK THE HEATING JUST YET. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE
SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH NORTHERLY
STEERING FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY AREA OF INSTABILITY
IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS ALONG THE WARNER AND PART OF SOUTHERN MODOC
COUNTY. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A
WARMING TREND AND MORE SUNSHINE. ON SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY
COULD WARM CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CRATER LAKE EAST AS
WELL AS THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.

A LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO NW WASHINGTON STATE ON MONDAY. SO
FAR BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THIS LOW NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO IDAHO. WE MAY SEE A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON WHICH WOULD INCREASE WINDS A
BIT AT HIGHER ELEVATION AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD
UPS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM AND
DRY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES AND FURTHER EASTWARD. LATER TONIGHT, MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN
BECOME MVFR, THOUGH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF
THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE COASTAL
AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE CREST WHERE IFR
WILL DEVELOP. VISIBILITY THERE WILL BE REDUCED AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO
DRIZZLE. COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE.
OVERNIGHT TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DIMINISH BY NOON SATURDAY. JBL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BORDERLINE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH, THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID-WEEK BUT
WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES.
BPN/DW/JBL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/JBL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 231634
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
930 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP
FIELDS FOR THIS MORNING BASED UPON THE RADAR RETURNS AS SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE
EAST SIDE AND MOST OF THE CASCADES. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK. -SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BUT SINCE IT IS MOVING ACROSS
THIS MORNING..WE LACK THE HEATING JUST YET. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE
SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH NORTHERLY
STEERING FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY AREA OF INSTABILITY
IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS ALONG THE WARNER AND PART OF SOUTHERN MODOC
COUNTY. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A
WARMING TREND AND MORE SUNSHINE. ON SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY
COULD WARM CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES WHICH IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CRATER LAKE EAST AS
WELL AS THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.

A LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO NW WASHINGTON STATE ON MONDAY. SO
FAR BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THIS LOW NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO IDAHO. WE MAY SEE A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON WHICH WOULD INCREASE WINDS A
BIT AT HIGHER ELEVATION AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD
UPS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM AND
DRY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES AND FURTHER EASTWARD. LATER TONIGHT, MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN
BECOME MVFR, THOUGH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF
THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE COASTAL
AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE CREST WHERE IFR
WILL DEVELOP. VISIBILITY THERE WILL BE REDUCED AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO
DRIZZLE. COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE.
OVERNIGHT TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DIMINISH BY NOON SATURDAY. JBL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BORDERLINE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH, THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID-WEEK BUT
WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES.
BPN/DW/JBL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/JBL




000
FXUS66 KPDT 231630 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
925 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO OUR AREA TODAY
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STRONG
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE WALLOWA COUNTY REGION AND THE
ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE THAT ALSO INCLUDES THE BLUE MOUNTAIN AREA. IN ADDITION THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
ONE LAST GOOD AREA OF MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE. EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME AREAS DRY OUT. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT WILL SEE THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOME
MOUNTAIN AREAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME MOISTURE
WILL LINGER. ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP INTO WASHINGTON FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING DURING THE EVENING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS
IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WASHINGTON BASIN SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE GETTING KICKED EWD AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH GETS
ESTABLISHED OFF THE NW COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY POTENT OR OVERLY MOIST WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THESE
AREAS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT BY SATURDAY A MORE SLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING WITH TIME SO THAT
BY FRIDAY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT A DECREASING TREND IN THE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-8 KFT WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE TODAY BUT THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL DECREASE BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KT TODAY EXCEPT
15-25 KT AT KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND GO TERRAIN DRIVEN
IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT KDLS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT 10-
20 KT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  51  79  51 /  40  20  10  20
ALW  78  55  81  55 /  30  20  10  20
PSC  84  55  86  55 /  30  10  10  20
YKM  81  56  83  54 /  40  10  20  20
HRI  81  53  84  53 /  40  10  10  10
ELN  82  55  80  54 /  30  20  20  20
RDM  70  39  77  39 /  20  10  10  10
LGD  72  50  74  46 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  72  45  77  44 /  40  20  10  10
DLS  72  55  76  55 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 231630 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
925 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO OUR AREA TODAY
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STRONG
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE WALLOWA COUNTY REGION AND THE
ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE THAT ALSO INCLUDES THE BLUE MOUNTAIN AREA. IN ADDITION THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
ONE LAST GOOD AREA OF MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE. EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME AREAS DRY OUT. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT WILL SEE THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOME
MOUNTAIN AREAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME MOISTURE
WILL LINGER. ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP INTO WASHINGTON FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING DURING THE EVENING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS
IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WASHINGTON BASIN SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE GETTING KICKED EWD AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH GETS
ESTABLISHED OFF THE NW COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY POTENT OR OVERLY MOIST WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THESE
AREAS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT BY SATURDAY A MORE SLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING WITH TIME SO THAT
BY FRIDAY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT A DECREASING TREND IN THE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-8 KFT WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE TODAY BUT THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL DECREASE BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KT TODAY EXCEPT
15-25 KT AT KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND GO TERRAIN DRIVEN
IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT KDLS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT 10-
20 KT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  51  79  51 /  40  20  10  20
ALW  78  55  81  55 /  30  20  10  20
PSC  84  55  86  55 /  30  10  10  20
YKM  81  56  83  54 /  40  10  20  20
HRI  81  53  84  53 /  40  10  10  10
ELN  82  55  80  54 /  30  20  20  20
RDM  70  39  77  39 /  20  10  10  10
LGD  72  50  74  46 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  72  45  77  44 /  40  20  10  10
DLS  72  55  76  55 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 231630 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
925 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO OUR AREA TODAY
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STRONG
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE WALLOWA COUNTY REGION AND THE
ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE THAT ALSO INCLUDES THE BLUE MOUNTAIN AREA. IN ADDITION THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
ONE LAST GOOD AREA OF MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE. EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME AREAS DRY OUT. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT WILL SEE THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOME
MOUNTAIN AREAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME MOISTURE
WILL LINGER. ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP INTO WASHINGTON FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING DURING THE EVENING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS
IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WASHINGTON BASIN SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE GETTING KICKED EWD AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH GETS
ESTABLISHED OFF THE NW COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY POTENT OR OVERLY MOIST WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THESE
AREAS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT BY SATURDAY A MORE SLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING WITH TIME SO THAT
BY FRIDAY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT A DECREASING TREND IN THE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-8 KFT WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE TODAY BUT THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL DECREASE BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KT TODAY EXCEPT
15-25 KT AT KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND GO TERRAIN DRIVEN
IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT KDLS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT 10-
20 KT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  51  79  51 /  40  20  10  20
ALW  78  55  81  55 /  30  20  10  20
PSC  84  55  86  55 /  30  10  10  20
YKM  81  56  83  54 /  40  10  20  20
HRI  81  53  84  53 /  40  10  10  10
ELN  82  55  80  54 /  30  20  20  20
RDM  70  39  77  39 /  20  10  10  10
LGD  72  50  74  46 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  72  45  77  44 /  40  20  10  10
DLS  72  55  76  55 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 231630 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
925 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO OUR AREA TODAY
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STRONG
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE WALLOWA COUNTY REGION AND THE
ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE THAT ALSO INCLUDES THE BLUE MOUNTAIN AREA. IN ADDITION THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ISOLD TSRA WERE ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
ONE LAST GOOD AREA OF MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE. EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME AREAS DRY OUT. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT WILL SEE THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOME
MOUNTAIN AREAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME MOISTURE
WILL LINGER. ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP INTO WASHINGTON FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING DURING THE EVENING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS
IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WASHINGTON BASIN SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE GETTING KICKED EWD AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH GETS
ESTABLISHED OFF THE NW COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY POTENT OR OVERLY MOIST WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THESE
AREAS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT BY SATURDAY A MORE SLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING WITH TIME SO THAT
BY FRIDAY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT A DECREASING TREND IN THE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-8 KFT WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE TODAY BUT THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL DECREASE BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KT TODAY EXCEPT
15-25 KT AT KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND GO TERRAIN DRIVEN
IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT KDLS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT 10-
20 KT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  51  79  51 /  40  20  10  20
ALW  78  55  81  55 /  30  20  10  20
PSC  84  55  86  55 /  30  10  10  20
YKM  81  56  83  54 /  40  10  20  20
HRI  81  53  84  53 /  40  10  10  10
ELN  82  55  80  54 /  30  20  20  20
RDM  70  39  77  39 /  20  10  10  10
LGD  72  50  74  46 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  72  45  77  44 /  40  20  10  10
DLS  72  55  76  55 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS65 KBOI 231557
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
957 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MTNS AND TREASURE VALLEY WILL ADVECT INTO SW HIGHLANDS...OWYHEES
AND FAR WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD
HEATING...WHICH IT TURN WILL MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY AND MAKE THESE
AREAS THE MOST LIKELY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UPDATE FOR
CHANGES TO QPF... SKY...AND WEATHER GRIDS OUT SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AFTER 18Z. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT BEFORE 18Z BECOMING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 30KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NE 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...YESTERDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE WX WERE
IN NRN ZONES IN IDAHO AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN OREGON. THERE
WAS LOCAL FLOODING FRIDAY EVENING NEAR MCCALL AND DONNELLY. TODAY
THE ACTION WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE IDAHO SIDE. GFS
STABILITY CHARTS HAVE VERIFIED BETTER THAN NAM RECENTLY...AND GFS
SHOWS GREATEST INSTABILITY TODAY IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. BUT GREATEST QPF WILL BE ALONG THE
IDAHO/NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER LOW PASSES BY IN
UTAH. YESTERDAY/S MODELS SHOWED THAT TOO. THEREFORE WE EXPECT
QUITE A BIT OF RAIN WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN TWIN
FALLS COUNTY AND ERN OWYHEE COUNTY...WHEREAS IN THE IDAHO
MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN WE EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL AGAIN LET THE DAY CREW DECIDE IF A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED FOR THOSE NRN MOUNTAINS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...OREGON ZONES WILL HAVE RELATIVELY LESS WX TODAY. DRIER
AIR WILL COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS TODAY...THEN ABOUT 3
DEGS WARMER SUNDAY. MILD AND MOIST TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AGAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEYS. MODERATE WEST TO EAST SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE SNAKE BASIN
AND ALSO NEAR BAKER COUNTY/OR TODAY. LESS WINDY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE 80S IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE RIDGE IS
SHORT-LIVED AS MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TRANSITIONING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 231557
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
957 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MTNS AND TREASURE VALLEY WILL ADVECT INTO SW HIGHLANDS...OWYHEES
AND FAR WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD
HEATING...WHICH IT TURN WILL MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY AND MAKE THESE
AREAS THE MOST LIKELY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UPDATE FOR
CHANGES TO QPF... SKY...AND WEATHER GRIDS OUT SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AFTER 18Z. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT BEFORE 18Z BECOMING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 30KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NE 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...YESTERDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE WX WERE
IN NRN ZONES IN IDAHO AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN OREGON. THERE
WAS LOCAL FLOODING FRIDAY EVENING NEAR MCCALL AND DONNELLY. TODAY
THE ACTION WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE IDAHO SIDE. GFS
STABILITY CHARTS HAVE VERIFIED BETTER THAN NAM RECENTLY...AND GFS
SHOWS GREATEST INSTABILITY TODAY IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. BUT GREATEST QPF WILL BE ALONG THE
IDAHO/NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER LOW PASSES BY IN
UTAH. YESTERDAY/S MODELS SHOWED THAT TOO. THEREFORE WE EXPECT
QUITE A BIT OF RAIN WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN TWIN
FALLS COUNTY AND ERN OWYHEE COUNTY...WHEREAS IN THE IDAHO
MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN WE EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL AGAIN LET THE DAY CREW DECIDE IF A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED FOR THOSE NRN MOUNTAINS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...OREGON ZONES WILL HAVE RELATIVELY LESS WX TODAY. DRIER
AIR WILL COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS TODAY...THEN ABOUT 3
DEGS WARMER SUNDAY. MILD AND MOIST TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AGAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEYS. MODERATE WEST TO EAST SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE SNAKE BASIN
AND ALSO NEAR BAKER COUNTY/OR TODAY. LESS WINDY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE 80S IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE RIDGE IS
SHORT-LIVED AS MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TRANSITIONING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231043
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
343 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BUT SINCE IT IS MOVING ACROSS
THIS MORNING..WE LACK THE HEATING JUST YET. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE
SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY AREA OF
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS ALONG THE WARNER AND PART OF
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AND MORE SUNSHINE. ON SUNDAY HIGHS
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD WARM CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES WHICH IS ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CRATER LAKE EAST AS WELL AS THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY.

A LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO NW WASHINGTON STATE ON MONDAY. SO
FAR BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THIS LOW NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO IDAHO. WE MAY SEE A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON WHICH WOULD INCREASE WINDS A
BIT AT HIGHER ELEVATION AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD
UPS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM AND
DRY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES AND FURTHER EASTWARD. LATER TONIGHT, MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN
BECOME MVFR, THOUGH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF
THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE COASTAL
AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE CREST WHERE IFR
WILL DEVELOP. VISIBILITY THERE WILL BE REDUCED AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO
DRIZZLE. COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURRED. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE.
OVERNIGHT TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DIMINISH BY NOON SATURDAY. JBL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BORDERLINE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH, THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID-WEEK BUT
WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES.
BPN/DW/JBL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/JBL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231043
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
343 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BUT SINCE IT IS MOVING ACROSS
THIS MORNING..WE LACK THE HEATING JUST YET. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE
SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY AREA OF
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS ALONG THE WARNER AND PART OF
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AND MORE SUNSHINE. ON SUNDAY HIGHS
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD WARM CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES WHICH IS ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CRATER LAKE EAST AS WELL AS THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY.

A LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO NW WASHINGTON STATE ON MONDAY. SO
FAR BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THIS LOW NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO IDAHO. WE MAY SEE A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON WHICH WOULD INCREASE WINDS A
BIT AT HIGHER ELEVATION AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD
UPS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM AND
DRY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES AND FURTHER EASTWARD. LATER TONIGHT, MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN
BECOME MVFR, THOUGH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF
THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE COASTAL
AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE CREST WHERE IFR
WILL DEVELOP. VISIBILITY THERE WILL BE REDUCED AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO
DRIZZLE. COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURRED. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE.
OVERNIGHT TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DIMINISH BY NOON SATURDAY. JBL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BORDERLINE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH, THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID-WEEK BUT
WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES.
BPN/DW/JBL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/JBL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 231043
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
343 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BUT SINCE IT IS MOVING ACROSS
THIS MORNING..WE LACK THE HEATING JUST YET. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE
SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY AREA OF
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS ALONG THE WARNER AND PART OF
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AND MORE SUNSHINE. ON SUNDAY HIGHS
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD WARM CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES WHICH IS ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CRATER LAKE EAST AS WELL AS THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY.

A LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO NW WASHINGTON STATE ON MONDAY. SO
FAR BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THIS LOW NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO IDAHO. WE MAY SEE A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON WHICH WOULD INCREASE WINDS A
BIT AT HIGHER ELEVATION AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD
UPS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM AND
DRY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES AND FURTHER EASTWARD. LATER TONIGHT, MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN
BECOME MVFR, THOUGH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF
THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE COASTAL
AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE CREST WHERE IFR
WILL DEVELOP. VISIBILITY THERE WILL BE REDUCED AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO
DRIZZLE. COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURRED. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE.
OVERNIGHT TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DIMINISH BY NOON SATURDAY. JBL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BORDERLINE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH, THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID-WEEK BUT
WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES.
BPN/DW/JBL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/JBL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 231043
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
343 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BUT SINCE IT IS MOVING ACROSS
THIS MORNING..WE LACK THE HEATING JUST YET. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE
SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY AREA OF
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS ALONG THE WARNER AND PART OF
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AND MORE SUNSHINE. ON SUNDAY HIGHS
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD WARM CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES WHICH IS ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CRATER LAKE EAST AS WELL AS THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY.

A LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO NW WASHINGTON STATE ON MONDAY. SO
FAR BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THIS LOW NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO IDAHO. WE MAY SEE A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON WHICH WOULD INCREASE WINDS A
BIT AT HIGHER ELEVATION AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD
UPS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM AND
DRY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES AND FURTHER EASTWARD. LATER TONIGHT, MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN
BECOME MVFR, THOUGH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF
THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE COASTAL
AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE CREST WHERE IFR
WILL DEVELOP. VISIBILITY THERE WILL BE REDUCED AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO
DRIZZLE. COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURRED. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE.
OVERNIGHT TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DIMINISH BY NOON SATURDAY. JBL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BORDERLINE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH, THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID-WEEK BUT
WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES.
BPN/DW/JBL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/JBL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 231043
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
343 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BUT SINCE IT IS MOVING ACROSS
THIS MORNING..WE LACK THE HEATING JUST YET. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE
SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY AREA OF
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS ALONG THE WARNER AND PART OF
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AND MORE SUNSHINE. ON SUNDAY HIGHS
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD WARM CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES WHICH IS ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CRATER LAKE EAST AS WELL AS THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY.

A LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO NW WASHINGTON STATE ON MONDAY. SO
FAR BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THIS LOW NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO IDAHO. WE MAY SEE A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON WHICH WOULD INCREASE WINDS A
BIT AT HIGHER ELEVATION AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD
UPS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM AND
DRY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES AND FURTHER EASTWARD. LATER TONIGHT, MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN
BECOME MVFR, THOUGH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF
THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE COASTAL
AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE CREST WHERE IFR
WILL DEVELOP. VISIBILITY THERE WILL BE REDUCED AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO
DRIZZLE. COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURRED. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE.
OVERNIGHT TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DIMINISH BY NOON SATURDAY. JBL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BORDERLINE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH, THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID-WEEK BUT
WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES.
BPN/DW/JBL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/JBL



000
FXUS66 KPDT 230955
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
255 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
ONE LAST GOOD AREA OF MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE. EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME AREAS DRY OUT. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT WILL SEE THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOME
MOUNTAIN AREAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME MOISTURE
WILL LINGER. ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP INTO WASHINGTON FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING DURING THE EVENING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS
IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WASHINGTON BASIN SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE GETTING KICKED EWD AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH GETS
ESTABLISHED OFF THE NW COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY POTENT OR OVERLY MOIST WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THESE
AREAS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT BY SATURDAY A MORE SLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING WITH TIME SO THAT
BY FRIDAY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT A DECREASING TREND IN THE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-8 KFT WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE TODAY BUT THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL DECREASE BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KT TODAY EXCEPT
15-25 KT AT KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND GO TERRAIN DRIVEN
IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT KDLS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT 10-
20 KT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  51  79  51 /  40  20  10  20
ALW  78  55  81  55 /  30  20  10  20
PSC  84  55  86  55 /  30  10  10  20
YKM  81  56  83  54 /  40  10  20  20
HRI  81  53  84  53 /  40  10  10  10
ELN  82  55  80  54 /  30  20  20  20
RDM  70  39  77  39 /  20  10  10  10
LGD  72  50  74  46 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  72  45  77  44 /  40  20  10  10
DLS  72  55  76  55 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/78/78




000
FXUS66 KPDT 230955
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
255 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
ONE LAST GOOD AREA OF MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE. EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
BE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME AREAS DRY OUT. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND OUR EASTERN MOUNTAIN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT WILL SEE THE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOME
MOUNTAIN AREAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME MOISTURE
WILL LINGER. ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP INTO WASHINGTON FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING DURING THE EVENING IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS
IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WASHINGTON BASIN SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD
ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE GETTING KICKED EWD AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH GETS
ESTABLISHED OFF THE NW COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY POTENT OR OVERLY MOIST WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND ALSO THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THESE
AREAS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT BY SATURDAY A MORE SLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING WITH TIME SO THAT
BY FRIDAY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT A DECREASING TREND IN THE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY. THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-8 KFT WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE TODAY BUT THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL DECREASE BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KT TODAY EXCEPT
15-25 KT AT KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND GO TERRAIN DRIVEN
IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT KDLS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT 10-
20 KT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  51  79  51 /  40  20  10  20
ALW  78  55  81  55 /  30  20  10  20
PSC  84  55  86  55 /  30  10  10  20
YKM  81  56  83  54 /  40  10  20  20
HRI  81  53  84  53 /  40  10  10  10
ELN  82  55  80  54 /  30  20  20  20
RDM  70  39  77  39 /  20  10  10  10
LGD  72  50  74  46 /  40  30  20  20
GCD  72  45  77  44 /  40  20  10  10
DLS  72  55  76  55 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/78/78



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230940
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
240 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE. A LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SHOWED MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS WELL
INLAND OVER ID AND EASTERN NV. RADAR SHOWED SOME SHOWERS CONTINUED
TO SPREAD W AS FAR AS THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AIDED IN PART
BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING S DOWN THE OREGON COAST. AS THIS
LOW MOVES S THE UPPER FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE NW AGAIN
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO SPREAD SO FAR W. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS...THEN LIMIT THEIR CHANCES TO
THE CASCADES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND IN FACT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS IN
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LATE DAY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR SOME INLAND AREAS ESP IN THE
S. THE MARINE AIR AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR NORMALS OR
A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH MON. A CHANCE FOR MORNING
DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AND MAY SPREAD INLAND SUN AND MON MORNING AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW CENTER DROPS S INTO WA BY MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO
BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR
PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES. THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...
PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL
RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A SPREAD OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
HOUR. SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED LINE RUNNING JUST NORTH OF A KEUG-KONP
LINE AND MOVING SOUTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FEEL INLAND CIGS
WILL LARGELY HOVER BETWEEN 025 AND 035 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING TO BETWEEN 035 AND 050 FOR THE EVENING. MAY SEE THE
STRATUS GO SCATTERED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT STRONGLY AGAINST GUIDANCE. EVEN IF IT
DOES...FEEL THE CIGS WILL CLOSE BACK UP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AROUND 345Z. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE ON THEIR WAY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AS WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THOUGH KAST IS
TAKING THE LONGEST TO DROP AD HAS NOT QUITE REACHED THAT LOW YET.
THE COASTAL STRATUS OPTIMISTICALLY MAY BREAK UP A BIT AND LIFT
BACK TO 020-025 BUT WILL KEEP THEM CLOSER TO THE 015 AGL MARK AS A
PRELIMINARY THOUGH FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS BOUNCING BETWEEN 025 AND 035 WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 19Z. FEEL CIGS
WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO RISE ABOVE THE 040 VISUAL APPROACH
THRESHOLD FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AT BEST. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
INLAND BRINGS NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT MUCH CONCERN FOR SPEEDS AS HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS STAY SEVERAL KTS BELOW THE 21 KT CRITERIA. WINDS OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...HOWEVER...WILL BRING A CHOPPY FRESH
SWELL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND LONGER
PERIOD WNW SWELL DOMINATES THE WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING.
/JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230940
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
240 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE. A LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SHOWED MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS WELL
INLAND OVER ID AND EASTERN NV. RADAR SHOWED SOME SHOWERS CONTINUED
TO SPREAD W AS FAR AS THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AIDED IN PART
BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING S DOWN THE OREGON COAST. AS THIS
LOW MOVES S THE UPPER FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE NW AGAIN
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO SPREAD SO FAR W. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS...THEN LIMIT THEIR CHANCES TO
THE CASCADES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND IN FACT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS IN
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LATE DAY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR SOME INLAND AREAS ESP IN THE
S. THE MARINE AIR AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR NORMALS OR
A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH MON. A CHANCE FOR MORNING
DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AND MAY SPREAD INLAND SUN AND MON MORNING AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW CENTER DROPS S INTO WA BY MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO
BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR
PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES. THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...
PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL
RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A SPREAD OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
HOUR. SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED LINE RUNNING JUST NORTH OF A KEUG-KONP
LINE AND MOVING SOUTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FEEL INLAND CIGS
WILL LARGELY HOVER BETWEEN 025 AND 035 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING TO BETWEEN 035 AND 050 FOR THE EVENING. MAY SEE THE
STRATUS GO SCATTERED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT STRONGLY AGAINST GUIDANCE. EVEN IF IT
DOES...FEEL THE CIGS WILL CLOSE BACK UP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AROUND 345Z. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE ON THEIR WAY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AS WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THOUGH KAST IS
TAKING THE LONGEST TO DROP AD HAS NOT QUITE REACHED THAT LOW YET.
THE COASTAL STRATUS OPTIMISTICALLY MAY BREAK UP A BIT AND LIFT
BACK TO 020-025 BUT WILL KEEP THEM CLOSER TO THE 015 AGL MARK AS A
PRELIMINARY THOUGH FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS BOUNCING BETWEEN 025 AND 035 WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 19Z. FEEL CIGS
WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO RISE ABOVE THE 040 VISUAL APPROACH
THRESHOLD FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AT BEST. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
INLAND BRINGS NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT MUCH CONCERN FOR SPEEDS AS HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS STAY SEVERAL KTS BELOW THE 21 KT CRITERIA. WINDS OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...HOWEVER...WILL BRING A CHOPPY FRESH
SWELL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND LONGER
PERIOD WNW SWELL DOMINATES THE WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING.
/JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 230940
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
240 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE. A LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SHOWED MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS WELL
INLAND OVER ID AND EASTERN NV. RADAR SHOWED SOME SHOWERS CONTINUED
TO SPREAD W AS FAR AS THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AIDED IN PART
BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING S DOWN THE OREGON COAST. AS THIS
LOW MOVES S THE UPPER FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE NW AGAIN
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO SPREAD SO FAR W. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS...THEN LIMIT THEIR CHANCES TO
THE CASCADES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND IN FACT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS IN
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LATE DAY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR SOME INLAND AREAS ESP IN THE
S. THE MARINE AIR AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR NORMALS OR
A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH MON. A CHANCE FOR MORNING
DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AND MAY SPREAD INLAND SUN AND MON MORNING AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW CENTER DROPS S INTO WA BY MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO
BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR
PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES. THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...
PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL
RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A SPREAD OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
HOUR. SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED LINE RUNNING JUST NORTH OF A KEUG-KONP
LINE AND MOVING SOUTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FEEL INLAND CIGS
WILL LARGELY HOVER BETWEEN 025 AND 035 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING TO BETWEEN 035 AND 050 FOR THE EVENING. MAY SEE THE
STRATUS GO SCATTERED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT STRONGLY AGAINST GUIDANCE. EVEN IF IT
DOES...FEEL THE CIGS WILL CLOSE BACK UP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AROUND 345Z. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE ON THEIR WAY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AS WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THOUGH KAST IS
TAKING THE LONGEST TO DROP AD HAS NOT QUITE REACHED THAT LOW YET.
THE COASTAL STRATUS OPTIMISTICALLY MAY BREAK UP A BIT AND LIFT
BACK TO 020-025 BUT WILL KEEP THEM CLOSER TO THE 015 AGL MARK AS A
PRELIMINARY THOUGH FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS BOUNCING BETWEEN 025 AND 035 WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 19Z. FEEL CIGS
WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO RISE ABOVE THE 040 VISUAL APPROACH
THRESHOLD FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AT BEST. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
INLAND BRINGS NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT MUCH CONCERN FOR SPEEDS AS HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS STAY SEVERAL KTS BELOW THE 21 KT CRITERIA. WINDS OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...HOWEVER...WILL BRING A CHOPPY FRESH
SWELL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND LONGER
PERIOD WNW SWELL DOMINATES THE WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING.
/JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 230940
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
240 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE. A LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR SHOWED MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS WELL
INLAND OVER ID AND EASTERN NV. RADAR SHOWED SOME SHOWERS CONTINUED
TO SPREAD W AS FAR AS THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AIDED IN PART
BY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING S DOWN THE OREGON COAST. AS THIS
LOW MOVES S THE UPPER FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE NW AGAIN
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO SPREAD SO FAR W. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS...THEN LIMIT THEIR CHANCES TO
THE CASCADES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND IN FACT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS IN
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LATE DAY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR SOME INLAND AREAS ESP IN THE
S. THE MARINE AIR AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR NORMALS OR
A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH MON. A CHANCE FOR MORNING
DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AND MAY SPREAD INLAND SUN AND MON MORNING AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW CENTER DROPS S INTO WA BY MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO
BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR
PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES. THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...
PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL
RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A SPREAD OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
HOUR. SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED LINE RUNNING JUST NORTH OF A KEUG-KONP
LINE AND MOVING SOUTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FEEL INLAND CIGS
WILL LARGELY HOVER BETWEEN 025 AND 035 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING TO BETWEEN 035 AND 050 FOR THE EVENING. MAY SEE THE
STRATUS GO SCATTERED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT STRONGLY AGAINST GUIDANCE. EVEN IF IT
DOES...FEEL THE CIGS WILL CLOSE BACK UP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AROUND 345Z. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE ON THEIR WAY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AS WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THOUGH KAST IS
TAKING THE LONGEST TO DROP AD HAS NOT QUITE REACHED THAT LOW YET.
THE COASTAL STRATUS OPTIMISTICALLY MAY BREAK UP A BIT AND LIFT
BACK TO 020-025 BUT WILL KEEP THEM CLOSER TO THE 015 AGL MARK AS A
PRELIMINARY THOUGH FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS BOUNCING BETWEEN 025 AND 035 WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 19Z. FEEL CIGS
WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO RISE ABOVE THE 040 VISUAL APPROACH
THRESHOLD FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AT BEST. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
INLAND BRINGS NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT MUCH CONCERN FOR SPEEDS AS HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS STAY SEVERAL KTS BELOW THE 21 KT CRITERIA. WINDS OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...HOWEVER...WILL BRING A CHOPPY FRESH
SWELL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND LONGER
PERIOD WNW SWELL DOMINATES THE WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING.
/JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 230935
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
335 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...YESTERDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE WX WERE
IN NRN ZONES IN IDAHO AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN OREGON.  THERE
WAS LOCAL FLOODING FRIDAY EVENING NEAR MCCALL AND DONNELLY.  TODAY
THE ACTION WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE IDAHO SIDE.  GFS STABILITY
CHARTS HAVE VERIFIED BETTER THAN NAM RECENTLY...AND GFS SHOWS
GREATEST INSTABILITY TODAY IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  BUT GREATEST QPF WILL BE ALONG THE IDAHO/NV BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER LOW PASSES BY IN UTAH.  YESTERDAY/S
MODELS SHOWED THAT TOO.  THEREFORE WE EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND ERN
OWYHEE COUNTY...WHEREAS IN THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN WE EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN.  WE WILL
AGAIN LET THE DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED FOR
THOSE NRN MOUNTAINS TODAY.  MEANWHILE...OREGON ZONES WILL HAVE
RELATIVELY LESS WX TODAY.  DRIER AIR WILL COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES WILL STILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS
TODAY...THEN ABOUT 3 DEGS WARMER SUNDAY.  MILD AND MOIST TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG AGAIN IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  MODERATE WEST TO EAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE SNAKE
BASIN AND ALSO NEAR BAKER COUNTY/OR TODAY.  LESS WINDY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE 80S IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE RIDGE IS
SHORT-LIVED AS MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TRANSITIONING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND PATCHY IFR FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AT KBKE AND KMYL THRU
14Z/SAT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AFTER 18Z/SAT. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT BECOMING GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY
10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 30KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NE 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 230935
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
335 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...YESTERDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE WX WERE
IN NRN ZONES IN IDAHO AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN OREGON.  THERE
WAS LOCAL FLOODING FRIDAY EVENING NEAR MCCALL AND DONNELLY.  TODAY
THE ACTION WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE IDAHO SIDE.  GFS STABILITY
CHARTS HAVE VERIFIED BETTER THAN NAM RECENTLY...AND GFS SHOWS
GREATEST INSTABILITY TODAY IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  BUT GREATEST QPF WILL BE ALONG THE IDAHO/NV BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER LOW PASSES BY IN UTAH.  YESTERDAY/S
MODELS SHOWED THAT TOO.  THEREFORE WE EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND ERN
OWYHEE COUNTY...WHEREAS IN THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN WE EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN.  WE WILL
AGAIN LET THE DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED FOR
THOSE NRN MOUNTAINS TODAY.  MEANWHILE...OREGON ZONES WILL HAVE
RELATIVELY LESS WX TODAY.  DRIER AIR WILL COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES WILL STILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS
TODAY...THEN ABOUT 3 DEGS WARMER SUNDAY.  MILD AND MOIST TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG AGAIN IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  MODERATE WEST TO EAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE SNAKE
BASIN AND ALSO NEAR BAKER COUNTY/OR TODAY.  LESS WINDY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE 80S IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE RIDGE IS
SHORT-LIVED AS MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TRANSITIONING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND PATCHY IFR FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AT KBKE AND KMYL THRU
14Z/SAT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AFTER 18Z/SAT. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT BECOMING GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY
10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 30KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NE 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 230521 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...ONE LAST AREA OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY AT THIS TIME AS OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ENDING. LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST
WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER OREGON AND NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
MOVING SOUTH OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. I EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS TO END...BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MORNING. 93

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH WAS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO THE TWO STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. PWATS WERE AROUND AN INCH AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAS THAT INCLUDE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA/JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. IN
ADDITION HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE STORMS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY.
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTN THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSRA AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  IN
GENERAL...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN VERIFY WHICH KEEP
THE LOW EAST OF THE CASCADES UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES IT
EASTWARD.  MODELS HAVE A HISTORY OF POOR PLACEMENT OF CLOSED LOWS
AND TEND TO FORCE LOWS OUT OF THE REGION TOO FAST.  KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF GFS/CANADIAN.  THE LONG
DURATION OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
FINALLY TRANSITION TO A DRIER RIDGE PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.  WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST BY FRIDAY.  WISTER

AVIATION...06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH CIGS 050-080 AGL WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME ISOLATED TSTMS
ALONG THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILL FROM KPDT TO KALW THROUGH 08Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT
AT THE KDLS.  93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  75  51  73 /  60  40  20  10
ALW  56  77  55  77 /  60  40  20  10
PSC  58  82  54  82 /  50  40  10  10
YKM  59  81  55  81 /  40  40  10  10
HRI  57  80  53  78 /  50  40  10  10
ELN  56  80  54  80 /  30  40  20  10
RDM  44  70  39  72 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  54  70  50  70 /  70  40  30  30
GCD  49  71  45  72 /  70  30  20  10
DLS  57  70  54  79 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-
     503-505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030-520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

93/85/93



000
FXUS66 KPDT 230521 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...ONE LAST AREA OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY AT THIS TIME AS OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ENDING. LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST
WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER OREGON AND NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
MOVING SOUTH OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. I EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS TO END...BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MORNING. 93

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH WAS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO THE TWO STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. PWATS WERE AROUND AN INCH AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAS THAT INCLUDE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA/JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. IN
ADDITION HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE STORMS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY.
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTN THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSRA AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  IN
GENERAL...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN VERIFY WHICH KEEP
THE LOW EAST OF THE CASCADES UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES IT
EASTWARD.  MODELS HAVE A HISTORY OF POOR PLACEMENT OF CLOSED LOWS
AND TEND TO FORCE LOWS OUT OF THE REGION TOO FAST.  KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF GFS/CANADIAN.  THE LONG
DURATION OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
FINALLY TRANSITION TO A DRIER RIDGE PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.  WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST BY FRIDAY.  WISTER

AVIATION...06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH CIGS 050-080 AGL WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME ISOLATED TSTMS
ALONG THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILL FROM KPDT TO KALW THROUGH 08Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT
AT THE KDLS.  93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  75  51  73 /  60  40  20  10
ALW  56  77  55  77 /  60  40  20  10
PSC  58  82  54  82 /  50  40  10  10
YKM  59  81  55  81 /  40  40  10  10
HRI  57  80  53  78 /  50  40  10  10
ELN  56  80  54  80 /  30  40  20  10
RDM  44  70  39  72 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  54  70  50  70 /  70  40  30  30
GCD  49  71  45  72 /  70  30  20  10
DLS  57  70  54  79 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-
     503-505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030-520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

93/85/93




000
FXUS66 KPDT 230521 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...ONE LAST AREA OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY AT THIS TIME AS OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ENDING. LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST
WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER OREGON AND NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
MOVING SOUTH OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. I EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS TO END...BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MORNING. 93

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH WAS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO THE TWO STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. PWATS WERE AROUND AN INCH AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAS THAT INCLUDE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA/JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. IN
ADDITION HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE STORMS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY.
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTN THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSRA AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  IN
GENERAL...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN VERIFY WHICH KEEP
THE LOW EAST OF THE CASCADES UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES IT
EASTWARD.  MODELS HAVE A HISTORY OF POOR PLACEMENT OF CLOSED LOWS
AND TEND TO FORCE LOWS OUT OF THE REGION TOO FAST.  KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF GFS/CANADIAN.  THE LONG
DURATION OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
FINALLY TRANSITION TO A DRIER RIDGE PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.  WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST BY FRIDAY.  WISTER

AVIATION...06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH CIGS 050-080 AGL WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME ISOLATED TSTMS
ALONG THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILL FROM KPDT TO KALW THROUGH 08Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT
AT THE KDLS.  93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  75  51  73 /  60  40  20  10
ALW  56  77  55  77 /  60  40  20  10
PSC  58  82  54  82 /  50  40  10  10
YKM  59  81  55  81 /  40  40  10  10
HRI  57  80  53  78 /  50  40  10  10
ELN  56  80  54  80 /  30  40  20  10
RDM  44  70  39  72 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  54  70  50  70 /  70  40  30  30
GCD  49  71  45  72 /  70  30  20  10
DLS  57  70  54  79 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-
     503-505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030-520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

93/85/93



000
FXUS66 KPDT 230521 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...ONE LAST AREA OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY AT THIS TIME AS OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ENDING. LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST
WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER OREGON AND NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
MOVING SOUTH OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. I EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS TO END...BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MORNING. 93

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH WAS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO THE TWO STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. PWATS WERE AROUND AN INCH AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAS THAT INCLUDE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA/JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. IN
ADDITION HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE STORMS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY.
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTN THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSRA AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  IN
GENERAL...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN VERIFY WHICH KEEP
THE LOW EAST OF THE CASCADES UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES IT
EASTWARD.  MODELS HAVE A HISTORY OF POOR PLACEMENT OF CLOSED LOWS
AND TEND TO FORCE LOWS OUT OF THE REGION TOO FAST.  KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF GFS/CANADIAN.  THE LONG
DURATION OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
FINALLY TRANSITION TO A DRIER RIDGE PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.  WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST BY FRIDAY.  WISTER

AVIATION...06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH CIGS 050-080 AGL WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME ISOLATED TSTMS
ALONG THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILL FROM KPDT TO KALW THROUGH 08Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT
AT THE KDLS.  93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  75  51  73 /  60  40  20  10
ALW  56  77  55  77 /  60  40  20  10
PSC  58  82  54  82 /  50  40  10  10
YKM  59  81  55  81 /  40  40  10  10
HRI  57  80  53  78 /  50  40  10  10
ELN  56  80  54  80 /  30  40  20  10
RDM  44  70  39  72 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  54  70  50  70 /  70  40  30  30
GCD  49  71  45  72 /  70  30  20  10
DLS  57  70  54  79 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-
     503-505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030-520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

93/85/93




000
FXUS66 KPDT 230327
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
827 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...ONE LAST AREA OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY AT THIS TIME AS OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ENDING. LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST
WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER OREGON AND NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
MOVING SOUTH OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. I EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS TO END...BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MORNING. 93

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH WAS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO THE TWO STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. PWATS WERE AROUND AN INCH AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAS THAT INCLUDE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA/JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. IN
ADDITION HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE STORMS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY.
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTN THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSRA AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  IN
GENERAL...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN VERIFY WHICH KEEP
THE LOW EAST OF THE CASCADES UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES IT
EASTWARD.  MODELS HAVE A HISTORY OF POOR PLACEMENT OF CLOSED LOWS
AND TEND TO FORCE LOWS OUT OF THE REGION TOO FAST.  KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF GFS/CANADIAN.  THE LONG
DURATION OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
FINALLY TRANSITION TO A DRIER RIDGE PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.  WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST BY FRIDAY.  WISTER

AVIATION...00Z TAFS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS HAVE A
POTENTIAL TO OBSERVE A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...AND KRDM
AND KBDN HAVE SCUD CLOUDS DOWN TO 1500 FEET.  HEAVY RAIN WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 0.5 TO 1.0 PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.  CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT AT THE KDLS.
WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  75  51  73 /  60  40  20  10
ALW  56  77  55  77 /  60  40  20  10
PSC  58  82  54  82 /  50  40  10  10
YKM  59  81  55  81 /  40  40  10  10
HRI  57  80  53  78 /  50  40  10  10
ELN  56  80  54  80 /  30  40  20  10
RDM  44  70  39  72 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  54  70  50  70 /  70  40  30  30
GCD  49  71  45  72 /  70  30  20  10
DLS  57  70  54  79 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-
     503-505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030-520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

93/85/93




000
FXUS66 KPQR 230323
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
823 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING
DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE OREGON
COAST...AND GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH AND DECREASING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES AND EXPECT
CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND WEATHER WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT 20Z
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A THIRD BUT
MORE SUBTLE LOW CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OFF THE S WASHINGTON COAST. THE
FORECAST AREA LIES IN A BROAD DEFORMATION AREA...WITH EAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND S-SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE FAR NORTH. BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS OVER ERN OREGON. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY. BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED NEAR BENNETT PASS.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LATE-AFTERNOON OR EARLY-EVENING CLEARING
TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AT 21Z THE KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS 4.7 MB...AND THE MORE SYNOPTIC KOTH-KGEG GRADIENT WAS
11.7 MB. THESE VALUES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OFF THE S WA
COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX SHOWS 90 PCT OR GREATER RH
UP TO AROUND 850 MB SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SAT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS VALID SUN INDICATE LOWER
CLOUD TOPS AND A LITTLE WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. THUS...SHOULD SEE
MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MON WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 12Z...THEN OVER NRN WA
BY 00Z TUE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE MORE E WITH IT COMPARED TO
THE GFS. CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX BEARS THIS OUT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT
DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM
CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP
MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES.
THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO
HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. MOSTLY A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING... THEN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TOWARDS A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 05Z-07Z SAT.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z-19Z SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR AFTER 21Z...WITH A FEW SUNBREAKS POSSIBLE
AFTERWARDS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 10Z-17Z SATURDAY.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 21Z. /27

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH
PRES WELL OFFSHORE. A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 230323
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
823 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING
DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE OREGON
COAST...AND GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH AND DECREASING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES AND EXPECT
CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND WEATHER WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT 20Z
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A THIRD BUT
MORE SUBTLE LOW CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OFF THE S WASHINGTON COAST. THE
FORECAST AREA LIES IN A BROAD DEFORMATION AREA...WITH EAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND S-SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE FAR NORTH. BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS OVER ERN OREGON. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY. BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED NEAR BENNETT PASS.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LATE-AFTERNOON OR EARLY-EVENING CLEARING
TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AT 21Z THE KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS 4.7 MB...AND THE MORE SYNOPTIC KOTH-KGEG GRADIENT WAS
11.7 MB. THESE VALUES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OFF THE S WA
COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX SHOWS 90 PCT OR GREATER RH
UP TO AROUND 850 MB SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SAT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS VALID SUN INDICATE LOWER
CLOUD TOPS AND A LITTLE WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. THUS...SHOULD SEE
MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MON WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 12Z...THEN OVER NRN WA
BY 00Z TUE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE MORE E WITH IT COMPARED TO
THE GFS. CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX BEARS THIS OUT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT
DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM
CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP
MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES.
THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO
HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. MOSTLY A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING... THEN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TOWARDS A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 05Z-07Z SAT.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z-19Z SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR AFTER 21Z...WITH A FEW SUNBREAKS POSSIBLE
AFTERWARDS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 10Z-17Z SATURDAY.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 21Z. /27

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH
PRES WELL OFFSHORE. A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 230323
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
823 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING
DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE OREGON
COAST...AND GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH AND DECREASING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES AND EXPECT
CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND WEATHER WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT 20Z
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A THIRD BUT
MORE SUBTLE LOW CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OFF THE S WASHINGTON COAST. THE
FORECAST AREA LIES IN A BROAD DEFORMATION AREA...WITH EAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND S-SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE FAR NORTH. BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS OVER ERN OREGON. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY. BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED NEAR BENNETT PASS.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LATE-AFTERNOON OR EARLY-EVENING CLEARING
TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AT 21Z THE KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS 4.7 MB...AND THE MORE SYNOPTIC KOTH-KGEG GRADIENT WAS
11.7 MB. THESE VALUES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OFF THE S WA
COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX SHOWS 90 PCT OR GREATER RH
UP TO AROUND 850 MB SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SAT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS VALID SUN INDICATE LOWER
CLOUD TOPS AND A LITTLE WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. THUS...SHOULD SEE
MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MON WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 12Z...THEN OVER NRN WA
BY 00Z TUE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE MORE E WITH IT COMPARED TO
THE GFS. CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX BEARS THIS OUT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT
DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM
CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP
MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES.
THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO
HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. MOSTLY A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING... THEN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TOWARDS A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 05Z-07Z SAT.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z-19Z SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR AFTER 21Z...WITH A FEW SUNBREAKS POSSIBLE
AFTERWARDS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 10Z-17Z SATURDAY.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 21Z. /27

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH
PRES WELL OFFSHORE. A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 230323
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
823 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING
DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...SOME SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE OREGON
COAST...AND GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH AND DECREASING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES AND EXPECT
CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND WEATHER WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT 20Z
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A THIRD BUT
MORE SUBTLE LOW CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OFF THE S WASHINGTON COAST. THE
FORECAST AREA LIES IN A BROAD DEFORMATION AREA...WITH EAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND S-SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE FAR NORTH. BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS OVER ERN OREGON. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY. BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED NEAR BENNETT PASS.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LATE-AFTERNOON OR EARLY-EVENING CLEARING
TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AT 21Z THE KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS 4.7 MB...AND THE MORE SYNOPTIC KOTH-KGEG GRADIENT WAS
11.7 MB. THESE VALUES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OFF THE S WA
COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX SHOWS 90 PCT OR GREATER RH
UP TO AROUND 850 MB SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SAT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS VALID SUN INDICATE LOWER
CLOUD TOPS AND A LITTLE WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. THUS...SHOULD SEE
MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MON WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 12Z...THEN OVER NRN WA
BY 00Z TUE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE MORE E WITH IT COMPARED TO
THE GFS. CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX BEARS THIS OUT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT
DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM
CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP
MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES.
THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO
HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. MOSTLY A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING... THEN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TOWARDS A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 05Z-07Z SAT.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z-19Z SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR AFTER 21Z...WITH A FEW SUNBREAKS POSSIBLE
AFTERWARDS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 10Z-17Z SATURDAY.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 21Z. /27

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH
PRES WELL OFFSHORE. A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 230320
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
820 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECREASING
ACROSS THE AREA. MOST ACTIVITY WAS OVER KLAMATH...LAKE...SISKIYOU
AND MODOC COUNTIES. ALL THUNDERSTORMS STAYED SMALL WITH JUST A
LITTLE LIGHTNING. SOUTHWEST OREGON NO LONGER HAS ANY SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THE DECREASING
SHOWERS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND NICELY SO NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED
THIS EVENING. JBL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD,
RELEGATING MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST SIDE BY LATER THIS
EVENING. TONIGHT, MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN BECOME MVFR TO IFR, THOUGH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD
KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. OVERNIGHT TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.
-BPN/BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEK. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BORDERLINE AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH,
THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN
INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID- WEEK BUT WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE
AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES. BPN/DW/JBL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SIDE, CASCADES, AND
SISKIYOUS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ISOLATED STRIKES EXPECTED.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND A SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COAST AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL BRING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
OVER THE EAST SIDE AND CASCADES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
STABILITY INDICES AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY STEARING FLOW, DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDER IN OUR CWA.

A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP THE WEST SIDE
PRIMARILY DRY AND WARM, WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. ON MONDAY, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL CONVERGE WITH STABLE ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE COAST TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SISKIYOUS AND SPREADING TO THE EAST SIDE. -MSC/SBN

LONG TERM...TUESDAY, MAY 26TH THROUGH FRIDAY, MAY 29TH...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 70S AND 80S ACROSS MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MOSTLY ON THE EAST
SIDE. NEXT FRIDAY MODELS DO PUSH THIS RISK WESTWARD SOME, MORE
TOWARD AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

JBL/JBL/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 230320
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
820 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECREASING
ACROSS THE AREA. MOST ACTIVITY WAS OVER KLAMATH...LAKE...SISKIYOU
AND MODOC COUNTIES. ALL THUNDERSTORMS STAYED SMALL WITH JUST A
LITTLE LIGHTNING. SOUTHWEST OREGON NO LONGER HAS ANY SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THE DECREASING
SHOWERS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND NICELY SO NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED
THIS EVENING. JBL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD,
RELEGATING MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST SIDE BY LATER THIS
EVENING. TONIGHT, MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN BECOME MVFR TO IFR, THOUGH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD
KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. OVERNIGHT TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.
-BPN/BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEK. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BORDERLINE AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH,
THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN
INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID- WEEK BUT WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE
AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES. BPN/DW/JBL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SIDE, CASCADES, AND
SISKIYOUS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ISOLATED STRIKES EXPECTED.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND A SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COAST AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL BRING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
OVER THE EAST SIDE AND CASCADES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
STABILITY INDICES AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY STEARING FLOW, DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDER IN OUR CWA.

A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP THE WEST SIDE
PRIMARILY DRY AND WARM, WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. ON MONDAY, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL CONVERGE WITH STABLE ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE COAST TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SISKIYOUS AND SPREADING TO THE EAST SIDE. -MSC/SBN

LONG TERM...TUESDAY, MAY 26TH THROUGH FRIDAY, MAY 29TH...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 70S AND 80S ACROSS MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MOSTLY ON THE EAST
SIDE. NEXT FRIDAY MODELS DO PUSH THIS RISK WESTWARD SOME, MORE
TOWARD AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

JBL/JBL/BPN



000
FXUS65 KBOI 230254
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
854 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...PULSE THUNDERSTORMS DELIVERED HEAVY RAIN WITH MCCALL
AIRPORT RECEIVING 0.65 INCHES AS OF 8 PM. HEAVY RAIN LIKELY LED TO
SPOTS OF LOCAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MOVED THROUGH FAR WESTERN VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL ADAMS
COUNTIES. AS OF 845 PM LIGHTNING SHOWED STORMS CROSSING THE SNAKE
RIVER FROM WESTERN ADAMS COUNTY TOWARDS THE WALLOWAS. OTHER STORMS
HAD PEA-SIZE HAIL REPORTED...INCLUDING CENTERVILLE... YELLOWPINE
AND SW TWIN FALLS. AS OF 845 PM THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CONTINUED
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY NEAR OWYHEE DAM WHERE HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL WERE LIKELY OCCURRING. STORMS WERE ALSO ACROSS...FAR
SW OWYHEE COUNTY NEAR DUCK VALLEY AND NW OF FAIRFIELD. STORM
MOVEMENT WAS GENERALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SW AT 10 MPH OR LESS.
SO FAR NO DAMAGE REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT THE NWS BUT HAVE
SENT OUT LSRBOI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT
AND REFORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IN CURRENT FORECAST FOR
NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY 06Z...BUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 25 KTS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10-15 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ON SATURDAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING SCATTERED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND EVEN THE RADAR STORM
SIGNATURES ARE SIMILAR WITH SLOW-MOVING PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL ARE ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS AS
YET SINCE THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OCCURRING MOSTLY IN REMOTE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE /MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS/ THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL TRACK E-NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA...A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL START WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
IN SW IDAHO. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IMPACTING THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....TL/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 230254
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
854 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...PULSE THUNDERSTORMS DELIVERED HEAVY RAIN WITH MCCALL
AIRPORT RECEIVING 0.65 INCHES AS OF 8 PM. HEAVY RAIN LIKELY LED TO
SPOTS OF LOCAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MOVED THROUGH FAR WESTERN VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL ADAMS
COUNTIES. AS OF 845 PM LIGHTNING SHOWED STORMS CROSSING THE SNAKE
RIVER FROM WESTERN ADAMS COUNTY TOWARDS THE WALLOWAS. OTHER STORMS
HAD PEA-SIZE HAIL REPORTED...INCLUDING CENTERVILLE... YELLOWPINE
AND SW TWIN FALLS. AS OF 845 PM THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CONTINUED
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY NEAR OWYHEE DAM WHERE HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL WERE LIKELY OCCURRING. STORMS WERE ALSO ACROSS...FAR
SW OWYHEE COUNTY NEAR DUCK VALLEY AND NW OF FAIRFIELD. STORM
MOVEMENT WAS GENERALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SW AT 10 MPH OR LESS.
SO FAR NO DAMAGE REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT THE NWS BUT HAVE
SENT OUT LSRBOI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT
AND REFORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IN CURRENT FORECAST FOR
NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY 06Z...BUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 25 KTS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10-15 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ON SATURDAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING SCATTERED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND EVEN THE RADAR STORM
SIGNATURES ARE SIMILAR WITH SLOW-MOVING PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL ARE ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS AS
YET SINCE THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OCCURRING MOSTLY IN REMOTE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE /MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS/ THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL TRACK E-NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA...A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL START WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
IN SW IDAHO. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IMPACTING THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....TL/WH



000
FXUS66 KMFR 222314
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
415 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SIDE, CASCADES, AND
SISKIYOUS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ISOLATED STRIKES EXPECTED.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND A SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COAST AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL BRING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
OVER THE EAST SIDE AND CASCADES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
STABILITY INDICES AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY STEARING FLOW, DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDER IN OUR CWA.

A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP THE WEST SIDE
PRIMARILY DRY AND WARM, WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. ON MONDAY, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL CONVERGE WITH STABLE ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE COAST TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SISKIYOUS AND SPREADING TO THE EAST SIDE. -MSC/SBN

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY, MAY 26TH THROUGH FRIDAY, MAY 29TH...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 70S AND 80S ACROSS MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MOSTLY ON THE EAST
SIDE. NEXT FRIDAY MODELS DO PUSH THIS RISK WESTWARD SOME, MORE
TOWARD AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED WITH IFR THIS MORNING WILL BECOME A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD FROM AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING TO
MAINLY ALONG AND THE EAST OF THE CASCADES AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TONIGHT MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN BECOME MVFR TO IFR, THOUGH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD
KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY WEST
OF THE CASCADES. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING IN A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH, THEN GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID-WEEK BUT
WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES.
-BPN/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MSC/BTL/SBN/BPN/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 222314
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
415 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SIDE, CASCADES, AND
SISKIYOUS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ISOLATED STRIKES EXPECTED.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND A SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COAST AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL BRING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
OVER THE EAST SIDE AND CASCADES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
STABILITY INDICES AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY STEARING FLOW, DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDER IN OUR CWA.

A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP THE WEST SIDE
PRIMARILY DRY AND WARM, WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. ON MONDAY, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL CONVERGE WITH STABLE ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE COAST TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SISKIYOUS AND SPREADING TO THE EAST SIDE. -MSC/SBN

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY, MAY 26TH THROUGH FRIDAY, MAY 29TH...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 70S AND 80S ACROSS MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MOSTLY ON THE EAST
SIDE. NEXT FRIDAY MODELS DO PUSH THIS RISK WESTWARD SOME, MORE
TOWARD AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED WITH IFR THIS MORNING WILL BECOME A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD FROM AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING TO
MAINLY ALONG AND THE EAST OF THE CASCADES AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TONIGHT MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN BECOME MVFR TO IFR, THOUGH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD
KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY WEST
OF THE CASCADES. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING IN A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH, THEN GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID-WEEK BUT
WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES.
-BPN/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MSC/BTL/SBN/BPN/DW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 222314
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
415 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SIDE, CASCADES, AND
SISKIYOUS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ISOLATED STRIKES EXPECTED.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND A SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COAST AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL BRING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
OVER THE EAST SIDE AND CASCADES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
STABILITY INDICES AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY STEARING FLOW, DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDER IN OUR CWA.

A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP THE WEST SIDE
PRIMARILY DRY AND WARM, WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. ON MONDAY, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL CONVERGE WITH STABLE ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE COAST TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SISKIYOUS AND SPREADING TO THE EAST SIDE. -MSC/SBN

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY, MAY 26TH THROUGH FRIDAY, MAY 29TH...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 70S AND 80S ACROSS MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MOSTLY ON THE EAST
SIDE. NEXT FRIDAY MODELS DO PUSH THIS RISK WESTWARD SOME, MORE
TOWARD AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED WITH IFR THIS MORNING WILL BECOME A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD FROM AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING TO
MAINLY ALONG AND THE EAST OF THE CASCADES AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TONIGHT MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN BECOME MVFR TO IFR, THOUGH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD
KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY WEST
OF THE CASCADES. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING IN A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH, THEN GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID-WEEK BUT
WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES.
-BPN/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MSC/BTL/SBN/BPN/DW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 222314
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
415 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SIDE, CASCADES, AND
SISKIYOUS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ISOLATED STRIKES EXPECTED.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND A SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COAST AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL BRING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
OVER THE EAST SIDE AND CASCADES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
STABILITY INDICES AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY STEARING FLOW, DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDER IN OUR CWA.

A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP THE WEST SIDE
PRIMARILY DRY AND WARM, WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. ON MONDAY, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL CONVERGE WITH STABLE ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE COAST TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SISKIYOUS AND SPREADING TO THE EAST SIDE. -MSC/SBN

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY, MAY 26TH THROUGH FRIDAY, MAY 29TH...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 70S AND 80S ACROSS MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MOSTLY ON THE EAST
SIDE. NEXT FRIDAY MODELS DO PUSH THIS RISK WESTWARD SOME, MORE
TOWARD AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED WITH IFR THIS MORNING WILL BECOME A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD FROM AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING TO
MAINLY ALONG AND THE EAST OF THE CASCADES AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TONIGHT MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN BECOME MVFR TO IFR, THOUGH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD
KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY WEST
OF THE CASCADES. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING IN A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH, THEN GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID-WEEK BUT
WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES.
-BPN/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MSC/BTL/SBN/BPN/DW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 222314
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
415 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SIDE, CASCADES, AND
SISKIYOUS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ISOLATED STRIKES EXPECTED.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND A SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COAST AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL BRING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
OVER THE EAST SIDE AND CASCADES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
STABILITY INDICES AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY STEARING FLOW, DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDER IN OUR CWA.

A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP THE WEST SIDE
PRIMARILY DRY AND WARM, WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. ON MONDAY, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL CONVERGE WITH STABLE ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE COAST TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SISKIYOUS AND SPREADING TO THE EAST SIDE. -MSC/SBN

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY, MAY 26TH THROUGH FRIDAY, MAY 29TH...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 70S AND 80S ACROSS MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MOSTLY ON THE EAST
SIDE. NEXT FRIDAY MODELS DO PUSH THIS RISK WESTWARD SOME, MORE
TOWARD AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED WITH IFR THIS MORNING WILL BECOME A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD FROM AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING TO
MAINLY ALONG AND THE EAST OF THE CASCADES AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TONIGHT MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN BECOME MVFR TO IFR, THOUGH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD
KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY WEST
OF THE CASCADES. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING IN A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH, THEN GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID-WEEK BUT
WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES.
-BPN/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MSC/BTL/SBN/BPN/DW



000
FXUS66 KPDT 222253 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
400 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH WAS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO THE TWO STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. PWATS WERE AROUND AN INCH AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAS THAT INCLUDE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA/JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. IN
ADDITION HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE STORMS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY.
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTN THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSRA AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  IN
GENERAL...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN VERIFY WHICH KEEP
THE LOW EAST OF THE CASCADES UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES IT
EASTWARD.  MODELS HAVE A HISTORY OF POOR PLACEMENT OF CLOSED LOWS
AND TEND TO FORCE LOWS OUT OF THE REGION TOO FAST.  KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF GFS/CANADIAN.  THE LONG
DURATION OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
FINALLY TRANSITION TO A DRIER RIDGE PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.  WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST BY FRIDAY.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS HAVE A
POTENTIAL TO OBSERVE A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...AND KRDM
AND KBDN HAVE SCUD CLOUDS DOWN TO 1500 FEET.  HEAVY RAIN WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 0.5 TO 1.0 PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.  CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT AT THE KDLS.
WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  75  51  73 /  60  40  20  10
ALW  56  77  55  77 /  60  40  20  10
PSC  58  82  54  82 /  50  40  10  10
YKM  59  81  55  81 /  40  40  10  10
HRI  57  80  53  78 /  50  40  10  10
ELN  56  80  54  80 /  30  40  20  10
RDM  44  70  39  72 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  54  70  50  70 /  70  40  30  30
GCD  49  71  45  72 /  70  30  20  10
DLS  57  70  54  79 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-
     503-505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030-520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85/85




000
FXUS66 KPDT 222253 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
400 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH WAS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO THE TWO STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. PWATS WERE AROUND AN INCH AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAS THAT INCLUDE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA/JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. IN
ADDITION HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE STORMS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY.
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTN THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSRA AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  IN
GENERAL...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN VERIFY WHICH KEEP
THE LOW EAST OF THE CASCADES UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES IT
EASTWARD.  MODELS HAVE A HISTORY OF POOR PLACEMENT OF CLOSED LOWS
AND TEND TO FORCE LOWS OUT OF THE REGION TOO FAST.  KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF GFS/CANADIAN.  THE LONG
DURATION OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
FINALLY TRANSITION TO A DRIER RIDGE PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.  WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST BY FRIDAY.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS HAVE A
POTENTIAL TO OBSERVE A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...AND KRDM
AND KBDN HAVE SCUD CLOUDS DOWN TO 1500 FEET.  HEAVY RAIN WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 0.5 TO 1.0 PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.  CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT AT THE KDLS.
WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  75  51  73 /  60  40  20  10
ALW  56  77  55  77 /  60  40  20  10
PSC  58  82  54  82 /  50  40  10  10
YKM  59  81  55  81 /  40  40  10  10
HRI  57  80  53  78 /  50  40  10  10
ELN  56  80  54  80 /  30  40  20  10
RDM  44  70  39  72 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  54  70  50  70 /  70  40  30  30
GCD  49  71  45  72 /  70  30  20  10
DLS  57  70  54  79 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-
     503-505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030-520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85/85




000
FXUS66 KPDT 222253 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
400 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH WAS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO THE TWO STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. PWATS WERE AROUND AN INCH AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAS THAT INCLUDE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA/JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. IN
ADDITION HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE STORMS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY.
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTN THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSRA AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  IN
GENERAL...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN VERIFY WHICH KEEP
THE LOW EAST OF THE CASCADES UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES IT
EASTWARD.  MODELS HAVE A HISTORY OF POOR PLACEMENT OF CLOSED LOWS
AND TEND TO FORCE LOWS OUT OF THE REGION TOO FAST.  KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF GFS/CANADIAN.  THE LONG
DURATION OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
FINALLY TRANSITION TO A DRIER RIDGE PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.  WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST BY FRIDAY.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS HAVE A
POTENTIAL TO OBSERVE A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...AND KRDM
AND KBDN HAVE SCUD CLOUDS DOWN TO 1500 FEET.  HEAVY RAIN WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 0.5 TO 1.0 PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.  CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT AT THE KDLS.
WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  75  51  73 /  60  40  20  10
ALW  56  77  55  77 /  60  40  20  10
PSC  58  82  54  82 /  50  40  10  10
YKM  59  81  55  81 /  40  40  10  10
HRI  57  80  53  78 /  50  40  10  10
ELN  56  80  54  80 /  30  40  20  10
RDM  44  70  39  72 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  54  70  50  70 /  70  40  30  30
GCD  49  71  45  72 /  70  30  20  10
DLS  57  70  54  79 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-
     503-505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030-520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85/85




000
FXUS66 KPDT 222253 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
400 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH WAS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO THE TWO STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. PWATS WERE AROUND AN INCH AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAS THAT INCLUDE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA/JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. IN
ADDITION HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE STORMS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY.
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTN THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSRA AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  IN
GENERAL...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN VERIFY WHICH KEEP
THE LOW EAST OF THE CASCADES UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES IT
EASTWARD.  MODELS HAVE A HISTORY OF POOR PLACEMENT OF CLOSED LOWS
AND TEND TO FORCE LOWS OUT OF THE REGION TOO FAST.  KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF GFS/CANADIAN.  THE LONG
DURATION OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
FINALLY TRANSITION TO A DRIER RIDGE PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.  WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST BY FRIDAY.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  ALL TERMINAL AIRPORTS HAVE A
POTENTIAL TO OBSERVE A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...AND KRDM
AND KBDN HAVE SCUD CLOUDS DOWN TO 1500 FEET.  HEAVY RAIN WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 0.5 TO 1.0 PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.  CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT AT THE KDLS.
WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  75  51  73 /  60  40  20  10
ALW  56  77  55  77 /  60  40  20  10
PSC  58  82  54  82 /  50  40  10  10
YKM  59  81  55  81 /  40  40  10  10
HRI  57  80  53  78 /  50  40  10  10
ELN  56  80  54  80 /  30  40  20  10
RDM  44  70  39  72 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  54  70  50  70 /  70  40  30  30
GCD  49  71  45  72 /  70  30  20  10
DLS  57  70  54  79 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-
     503-505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030-520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85/85




000
FXUS66 KMFR 222203
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
303 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SIDE, CASCADES, AND
SISKIYOUS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ISOLATED STRIKES EXPECTED.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND A SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COAST AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL BRING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
OVER THE EAST SIDE AND CASCADES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
STABILITY INDICES AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY STEARING FLOW, DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDER IN OUR CWA.

A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP THE WEST SIDE
PRIMARILY DRY AND WARM, WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. ON MONDAY, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL CONVERGE WITH STABLE ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE COAST TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SISKIYOUS AND SPREADING TO THE EAST SIDE. -MSC/SBN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED WITH IFR THIS MORNING WILL BECOME A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD FROM AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING TO
MAINLY ALONG AND THE EAST OF THE CASCADES AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TONIGHT MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN BECOME MVFR TO IFR, THOUGH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD
KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY WEST
OF THE CASCADES. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING IN A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH, THEN GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID-WEEK BUT
WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES.
-BPN/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MSC/BTL/SBN/BPN/DW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 222203
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
303 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SIDE, CASCADES, AND
SISKIYOUS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ISOLATED STRIKES EXPECTED.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND A SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COAST AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL BRING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
OVER THE EAST SIDE AND CASCADES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
STABILITY INDICES AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY STEARING FLOW, DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDER IN OUR CWA.

A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP THE WEST SIDE
PRIMARILY DRY AND WARM, WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. ON MONDAY, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL CONVERGE WITH STABLE ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE COAST TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SISKIYOUS AND SPREADING TO THE EAST SIDE. -MSC/SBN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED WITH IFR THIS MORNING WILL BECOME A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD FROM AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING TO
MAINLY ALONG AND THE EAST OF THE CASCADES AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TONIGHT MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN BECOME MVFR TO IFR, THOUGH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD
KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY WEST
OF THE CASCADES. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING IN A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH, THEN GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID-WEEK BUT
WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES.
-BPN/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MSC/BTL/SBN/BPN/DW




000
FXUS66 KPDT 222140
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH WAS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO THE TWO STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. PWATS WERE AROUND AN INCH AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAS THAT INCLUDE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA/JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. IN
ADDITION HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE STORMS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD BE OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA SUNDAY.
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTN THAT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSRA AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE DISCREPANCIES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WA/OR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  IN
GENERAL...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN VERIFY WHICH KEEP
THE LOW EAST OF THE CASCADES UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES IT
EASTWARD.  MODELS HAVE A HISTORY OF POOR PLACEMENT OF CLOSED LOWS
AND TEND TO FORCE LOWS OUT OF THE REGION TOO FAST.  KEEPING THIS IN
MIND...WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF GFS/CANADIAN.  THE LONG
DURATION OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
FINALLY TRANSITION TO A DRIER RIDGE PATTERN BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.  WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST BY FRIDAY.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION). IT WILL PREDOMINANTLY
REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT CIGS WILL BE 3500-8000 FEET
AGL AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
 WEB CAMS NEAR KRDM AND KBDN ARE SHOWING LOW LYING SCUD CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 1500 FEET.  TOWERING CUMULUS AND/OR CB CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND THERE MAY BE IN CLOUD
LIGHTNING OR CTG LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT
THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  75  51  73 /  60  40  20  10
ALW  56  77  55  77 /  60  40  20  10
PSC  58  82  54  82 /  50  40  10  10
YKM  59  81  55  81 /  40  40  10  10
HRI  57  80  53  78 /  50  40  10  10
ELN  56  80  54  80 /  30  40  20  10
RDM  44  70  39  72 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  54  70  50  70 /  70  40  30  30
GCD  49  71  45  72 /  70  30  20  10
DLS  57  70  54  79 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-
     503-505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030-520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85/85




000
FXUS66 KPQR 222126
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
225 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING
DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. AT 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A
THIRD BUT MORE SUBTLE LOW CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OFF THE S WASHINGTON
COAST. THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN A BROAD DEFORMATION AREA...WITH EAST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND S-SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE FAR NORTH.
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS OVER ERN OREGON. KRTX DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY. BETWEEN
19Z AND 20Z SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED NEAR BENNETT PASS.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LATE-AFTERNOON OR EARLY-EVENING CLEARING
TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AT 21Z THE KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS 4.7 MB...AND THE MORE SYNOPTIC KOTH-KGEG GRADIENT WAS
11.7 MB. THESE VALUES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OFF THE S WA
COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX SHOWS 90 PCT OR GREATER RH
UP TO AROUND 850 MB SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SAT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS VALID SUN INDICATE LOWER
CLOUD TOPS AND A LITTLE WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. THUS...SHOULD SEE
MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MON WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 12Z...THEN OVER NRN WA
BY 00Z TUE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE MORE E WITH IT COMPARED TO
THE GFS. CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX BEARS THIS OUT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT
DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM
CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP
MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES.
THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO
HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO REMAIN
MVFR...WITH SOME HIGH-END IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING HINTS OF SOME CLOUD BREAKS OVER THE
INTERIOR. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS SUCH...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE IN THE INTERIOR. ANY VFR CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST WILL LOWER TOWARDS A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD BECOME VFR FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH
PRES WELL OFFSHORE. A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 222126
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
225 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING
DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. AT 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A
THIRD BUT MORE SUBTLE LOW CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OFF THE S WASHINGTON
COAST. THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN A BROAD DEFORMATION AREA...WITH EAST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND S-SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE FAR NORTH.
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS OVER ERN OREGON. KRTX DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY. BETWEEN
19Z AND 20Z SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED NEAR BENNETT PASS.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LATE-AFTERNOON OR EARLY-EVENING CLEARING
TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AT 21Z THE KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS 4.7 MB...AND THE MORE SYNOPTIC KOTH-KGEG GRADIENT WAS
11.7 MB. THESE VALUES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OFF THE S WA
COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX SHOWS 90 PCT OR GREATER RH
UP TO AROUND 850 MB SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SAT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS VALID SUN INDICATE LOWER
CLOUD TOPS AND A LITTLE WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. THUS...SHOULD SEE
MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MON WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 12Z...THEN OVER NRN WA
BY 00Z TUE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE MORE E WITH IT COMPARED TO
THE GFS. CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX BEARS THIS OUT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT
DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM
CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP
MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES.
THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO
HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO REMAIN
MVFR...WITH SOME HIGH-END IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING HINTS OF SOME CLOUD BREAKS OVER THE
INTERIOR. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS SUCH...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE IN THE INTERIOR. ANY VFR CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST WILL LOWER TOWARDS A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD BECOME VFR FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH
PRES WELL OFFSHORE. A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 222126
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
225 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING
DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. AT 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A
THIRD BUT MORE SUBTLE LOW CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OFF THE S WASHINGTON
COAST. THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN A BROAD DEFORMATION AREA...WITH EAST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND S-SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE FAR NORTH.
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS OVER ERN OREGON. KRTX DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY. BETWEEN
19Z AND 20Z SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED NEAR BENNETT PASS.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LATE-AFTERNOON OR EARLY-EVENING CLEARING
TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AT 21Z THE KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS 4.7 MB...AND THE MORE SYNOPTIC KOTH-KGEG GRADIENT WAS
11.7 MB. THESE VALUES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OFF THE S WA
COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX SHOWS 90 PCT OR GREATER RH
UP TO AROUND 850 MB SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SAT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS VALID SUN INDICATE LOWER
CLOUD TOPS AND A LITTLE WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. THUS...SHOULD SEE
MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MON WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 12Z...THEN OVER NRN WA
BY 00Z TUE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE MORE E WITH IT COMPARED TO
THE GFS. CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX BEARS THIS OUT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT
DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM
CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP
MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES.
THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO
HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO REMAIN
MVFR...WITH SOME HIGH-END IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING HINTS OF SOME CLOUD BREAKS OVER THE
INTERIOR. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS SUCH...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE IN THE INTERIOR. ANY VFR CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST WILL LOWER TOWARDS A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD BECOME VFR FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH
PRES WELL OFFSHORE. A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 222126
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
225 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING
DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...COMPLEX LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. AT 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A
THIRD BUT MORE SUBTLE LOW CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OFF THE S WASHINGTON
COAST. THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN A BROAD DEFORMATION AREA...WITH EAST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND S-SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE FAR NORTH.
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS OVER ERN OREGON. KRTX DUAL-POL
DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY. BETWEEN
19Z AND 20Z SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED NEAR BENNETT PASS.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LATE-AFTERNOON OR EARLY-EVENING CLEARING
TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AT 21Z THE KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT WAS 4.7 MB...AND THE MORE SYNOPTIC KOTH-KGEG GRADIENT WAS
11.7 MB. THESE VALUES SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR OFF THE S WA
COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX SHOWS 90 PCT OR GREATER RH
UP TO AROUND 850 MB SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
GRIDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SAT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS VALID SUN INDICATE LOWER
CLOUD TOPS AND A LITTLE WEAKER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. THUS...SHOULD SEE
MORE AFTERNOON CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MON WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 12Z...THEN OVER NRN WA
BY 00Z TUE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE MORE E WITH IT COMPARED TO
THE GFS. CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER MEMORIAL DAY
MORNING. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KPDX BEARS THIS OUT. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING GENERALLY THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE CLUSTERING ON A SOLUTION THAT
DROPS THE LOW ALONG OR EAST OF THE CASCADES AS IT MOVES SOUTH FROM
CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF MARINE CLOUDS BUT KEEP
MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES.
THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT LARGE WITH RESPECT TO
HOW HIGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO REMAIN
MVFR...WITH SOME HIGH-END IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING HINTS OF SOME CLOUD BREAKS OVER THE
INTERIOR. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS SUCH...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE IN THE INTERIOR. ANY VFR CIGS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST WILL LOWER TOWARDS A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD BECOME VFR FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH
PRES WELL OFFSHORE. A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 222050
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND EVEN THE RADAR STORM
SIGNATURES ARE SIMILAR WITH SLOW-MOVING PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL ARE ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS AS
YET SINCE THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OCCURRING MOSTLY IN REMOTE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE /MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS/ THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL TRACK E-NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA...A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL START WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
IN SW IDAHO. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IMPACTING THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGERING OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE 11Z-14Z SATURDAY INCLUDING KMYL AND KBKE AREAS. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AT 10K FEET MSL NORTHERLY UP TO 15KT.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MOST NUMEROUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN
SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10-20KT SATURDAY...THEN NW
GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ALOFT NORTHERLY
15 TO 25 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL SATURDAY...DECREASING TO 10-15 KTS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....TL/WH
AVIATION.....TL



000
FXUS65 KBOI 222050
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND EVEN THE RADAR STORM
SIGNATURES ARE SIMILAR WITH SLOW-MOVING PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL ARE ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS AS
YET SINCE THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OCCURRING MOSTLY IN REMOTE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE /MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS/ THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL TRACK E-NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA...A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL START WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
IN SW IDAHO. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IMPACTING THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGERING OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE 11Z-14Z SATURDAY INCLUDING KMYL AND KBKE AREAS. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AT 10K FEET MSL NORTHERLY UP TO 15KT.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MOST NUMEROUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN
SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10-20KT SATURDAY...THEN NW
GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ALOFT NORTHERLY
15 TO 25 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL SATURDAY...DECREASING TO 10-15 KTS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....TL/WH
AVIATION.....TL




000
FXUS66 KPDT 221735 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS ALONG WITH THE JOHN
DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO AFTN TEMPS AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. IT WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT CIGS WILL BE 3500-8000 FEET AGL AND THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WEB CAMS NEAR KRDM
AND KBDN ARE SHOWING LOW LYING SCUD CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 1500
FEET.  TOWERING CUMULUS AND/OR CB CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...AND THERE MAY BE IN CLOUD LIGHTNING OR CTG
LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-
15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  74  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  76  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  83  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  78  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  80  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  79  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  68  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  69  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  68  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  76  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85



000
FXUS66 KPDT 221735 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS ALONG WITH THE JOHN
DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO AFTN TEMPS AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. IT WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT CIGS WILL BE 3500-8000 FEET AGL AND THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WEB CAMS NEAR KRDM
AND KBDN ARE SHOWING LOW LYING SCUD CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 1500
FEET.  TOWERING CUMULUS AND/OR CB CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...AND THERE MAY BE IN CLOUD LIGHTNING OR CTG
LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-
15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  74  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  76  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  83  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  78  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  80  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  79  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  68  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  69  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  68  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  76  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85




000
FXUS66 KPDT 221735 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS ALONG WITH THE JOHN
DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO AFTN TEMPS AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. IT WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT CIGS WILL BE 3500-8000 FEET AGL AND THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WEB CAMS NEAR KRDM
AND KBDN ARE SHOWING LOW LYING SCUD CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 1500
FEET.  TOWERING CUMULUS AND/OR CB CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...AND THERE MAY BE IN CLOUD LIGHTNING OR CTG
LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-
15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  74  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  76  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  83  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  78  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  80  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  79  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  68  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  69  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  68  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  76  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85



000
FXUS66 KPDT 221735 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS ALONG WITH THE JOHN
DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO AFTN TEMPS AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. IT WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT CIGS WILL BE 3500-8000 FEET AGL AND THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WEB CAMS NEAR KRDM
AND KBDN ARE SHOWING LOW LYING SCUD CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 1500
FEET.  TOWERING CUMULUS AND/OR CB CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...AND THERE MAY BE IN CLOUD LIGHTNING OR CTG
LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-
15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  74  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  76  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  83  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  78  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  80  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  79  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  68  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  69  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  68  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  76  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/85




000
FXUS66 KPQR 221633
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
932 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...PUSHING THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT EAST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE N
OREGON COAST THIS EVENING DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN
SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 1530Z SHOWING
CONSIDERABLE RESIDUAL ECHO COVERAGE FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
STRONGEST RETURNS WERE OVER THE HIGHER N OREGON CASCADES AND ALSO THE
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN INTERSTATE 5 AND THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE IN THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
COL REGION. EAST FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN OREGON...S-SW FLOW ALOFT OVER
NRN OREGON AND SW WA AND A DILLITATION AXIS IN THE MIDDLE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONCENTRATION WITHIN THIS
ZONE...WHILE INFRA-RED IMAGERY INDICATES THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.
BASED ON 15Z OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT THIS MORNING FOR THE CASCADE ZONES AND
PORTIONS OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

MAIN SHORT-TERM CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR THE CASCADES NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. THE NAM ACTUALLY SHOWS THE BEST CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR THE
CASCADES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM INDICATES
NEARLY 300 J/KG CAPE AT 18Z...BUT NEAR 0 BY 00Z SAT. BELIEVE A
GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL
STABILIZE THE AIR MASS. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR THE CASCADES FROM 18Z TO 21Z TODAY THEN REMOVED ANY
CONVECTIVE THREAT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
CLEARING TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL BE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE OREGON COAST RANGE TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 5.

A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR NEAR 48N 128W
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. HI-RES WRF-ARW ACTUALLY SHOWS A BIT MORE CLEARING SAT
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR.

MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SUN
WITH LESS AFTERNOON SUN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE LESS ONSHORE FLOW. IN
ANY EVENT...GENERAL CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE...WITH ANY SHOWER THREAT
CONFINED TO NRN CASCADES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH SITTING OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON THROUGH
TUE. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS MAINTAINS A CLOSED
FEATURE...KEEPING IT OVER SW WA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES BEST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE CWA WOULD BE
CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL...OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER SE WA WED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CASCADES
WED...BUT IF THE GFS IS MORE RIGHT...THEN IT WOULD BE DRY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALLY DISREGARD ANY PRECIP THREAT. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MVFR UNDER
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 22Z. LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO LIFT
AND BREAK SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL INLAND
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN AFTER 09Z AS
MARINE STRATUS FILTERS INLAND AGAIN.

LOW-END MVFR TO HIGH-END IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOLID MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. MVFR
CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW-END MVFR TO
HIGH-END IFR CIGS LIKELY RETURN LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME VFR
AFTER 20Z. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS
TO RETURN AFTER 09Z AS MARINE STRATUS FILTERS INLAND AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH PRES WELL
OFFSHORE. MIXED SEAS WITH A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 221633
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
932 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...PUSHING THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT EAST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE N
OREGON COAST THIS EVENING DIVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MEMORIAL DAY THEN
SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR AS OF 1530Z SHOWING
CONSIDERABLE RESIDUAL ECHO COVERAGE FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
STRONGEST RETURNS WERE OVER THE HIGHER N OREGON CASCADES AND ALSO THE
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN INTERSTATE 5 AND THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE IN THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
COL REGION. EAST FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN OREGON...S-SW FLOW ALOFT OVER
NRN OREGON AND SW WA AND A DILLITATION AXIS IN THE MIDDLE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONCENTRATION WITHIN THIS
ZONE...WHILE INFRA-RED IMAGERY INDICATES THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.
BASED ON 15Z OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT THIS MORNING FOR THE CASCADE ZONES AND
PORTIONS OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

MAIN SHORT-TERM CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR THE CASCADES NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. THE NAM ACTUALLY SHOWS THE BEST CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR THE
CASCADES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM INDICATES
NEARLY 300 J/KG CAPE AT 18Z...BUT NEAR 0 BY 00Z SAT. BELIEVE A
GRADUAL SWITCH TO NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL
STABILIZE THE AIR MASS. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR THE CASCADES FROM 18Z TO 21Z TODAY THEN REMOVED ANY
CONVECTIVE THREAT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
CLEARING TODAY...AS DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES WRF-ARW MODEL. AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL BE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE OREGON COAST RANGE TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 5.

A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR NEAR 48N 128W
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS PICKS UP ON
THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CAL BY SAT AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND SAT...INDUCING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY VALID 12Z SAT
YIELD CLOUD TOPS TO NEARLY 5000 FT MSL. AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT
THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AND WEST SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE AND INTO THE WILLAPA HILLS OF SW WA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. HI-RES WRF-ARW ACTUALLY SHOWS A BIT MORE CLEARING SAT
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR.

MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SUN
WITH LESS AFTERNOON SUN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE LESS ONSHORE FLOW. IN
ANY EVENT...GENERAL CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE...WITH ANY SHOWER THREAT
CONFINED TO NRN CASCADES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH SITTING OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON THROUGH
TUE. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS MAINTAINS A CLOSED
FEATURE...KEEPING IT OVER SW WA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES BEST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE CWA WOULD BE
CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL...OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER SE WA WED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CASCADES
WED...BUT IF THE GFS IS MORE RIGHT...THEN IT WOULD BE DRY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALLY DISREGARD ANY PRECIP THREAT. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MVFR UNDER
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 22Z. LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO LIFT
AND BREAK SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL INLAND
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN AFTER 09Z AS
MARINE STRATUS FILTERS INLAND AGAIN.

LOW-END MVFR TO HIGH-END IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOLID MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. MVFR
CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW-END MVFR TO
HIGH-END IFR CIGS LIKELY RETURN LATE TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME VFR
AFTER 20Z. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS
TO RETURN AFTER 09Z AS MARINE STRATUS FILTERS INLAND AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WITH HIGH PRES WELL
OFFSHORE. MIXED SEAS WITH A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 221601
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
900 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE.

SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ARE AFFECTING THE CWA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE MOVING
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE CASCADES AND SPREADING INTO WEST SIDE
VALLEYS, SO BUMPED UP POPS IN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING. STEARING FLOW
IS MOSTLY NORTHERLY, THUS HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE
CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY MAINLY OVER THE EAST SIDE
AND SISKIYOUS, WITH NORTHERLY STEARING FLOW. UPDATED FORECAST TO
KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE WEST SIDE. -MSC/SBN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

SHOWERS ARE NOW WANING OVER THE MEDFORD CWA. THERE IS STILL SOME
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED...ESPECIALLY OVER MODOC
COUNTY. THERE IS MORE TO COME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND THE FOCUS WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF
THE HEMISPHERE FOR THE NEXT TEN DAYS...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BLOCK WILL BRING VARIABLE WEATHER TO THE AREA. IT WON`T BE ONE OF
THOSE "WARM AND DRY FOR TWO WEEKS" SCENARIOS.

CURRENTLY THERE IS A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH A HIGH SETTING UP
ALONG THE ALASKA/CANADA BOUNDARY AND A DEVELOPING EASTERN ANCHOR
LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT THE EASTERN ANCHOR LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO COLORADO SUNDAY.

AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...THE RIDGE PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK
WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST. INCREASINGLY
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR LESS COVERAGE AND LOWER
INTENSITIES.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY. AN ONSHORE MARINE PUSH ON THE WEST
SIDE WILL PUT THE KABOSH ON SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES.

THE EASTERLY PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES
OF SHOWERS DUE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE OVER LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES. THE NAM SHOWS A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...BUT THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS LOW EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY
FLOW INDICATES IT WON`T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IT WILL
ALSO BE SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING MAXIMUM SOLAR HEATING...SO NVA
ALOFT WILL HELP SUPPRESS SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE STRONGEST EFFECT OF
THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE AN ONSHORE MARINE PUSH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE UNSTABLE AS A WEAK LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
BLOCK BRINGS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT FOR A MORE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. STILL DOESN`T LOOK IMPRESSIVE...BUT AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES EAST MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW
SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...BOTH BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-
RUN DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE SAME MODEL. THE GFS KEEPS A CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA MONDAY WHILE THE EC BUILDS IN A RIDGE
FROM THE WEST...MAKING FOR MORE STABLE AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR EAST SIDE. IN LIGHT OF ALL THIS...CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BEGIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MONDAY IS SHOWING THE BEST
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WEST
COAST AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION. FROM THERE THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
VARY WITH THE GFS INDICATING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS THE FIRST APPEARANCE OF THE
UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS HOWEVER...AND WITH THE ENSEMBLE PLOTS ALSO
INDICATING THAT THE ECMWF RIDGING IS ALSO AN OUTLIER HAVE BROAD-
BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. -SVEN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/06Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST,  MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING LATE
IN THE MORNING. THE UMPQUA BASIN COULD SEE MVFR CIGS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED IFR CIGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE KRBG AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT KLMT TO REMAIN VFR
BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. ALONG THE COAST
EXPECT A MIX OF IFR/LIFR...LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT THURSDAY 21 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS
INTO NEXT WEEK. FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL RESULT IN STEEP CHOPPY
SEAS OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TREND HIGHER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING HIGHER ON
WINDS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
EXTEND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS WELL. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF WEST SWELL
WITH SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INTO
MID NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FB/JRS/DJW/SBN/MSC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 221601
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
900 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE.

SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ARE AFFECTING THE CWA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE MOVING
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE CASCADES AND SPREADING INTO WEST SIDE
VALLEYS, SO BUMPED UP POPS IN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING. STEARING FLOW
IS MOSTLY NORTHERLY, THUS HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE
CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY MAINLY OVER THE EAST SIDE
AND SISKIYOUS, WITH NORTHERLY STEARING FLOW. UPDATED FORECAST TO
KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE WEST SIDE. -MSC/SBN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

SHOWERS ARE NOW WANING OVER THE MEDFORD CWA. THERE IS STILL SOME
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED...ESPECIALLY OVER MODOC
COUNTY. THERE IS MORE TO COME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND THE FOCUS WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF
THE HEMISPHERE FOR THE NEXT TEN DAYS...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BLOCK WILL BRING VARIABLE WEATHER TO THE AREA. IT WON`T BE ONE OF
THOSE "WARM AND DRY FOR TWO WEEKS" SCENARIOS.

CURRENTLY THERE IS A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH A HIGH SETTING UP
ALONG THE ALASKA/CANADA BOUNDARY AND A DEVELOPING EASTERN ANCHOR
LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT THE EASTERN ANCHOR LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO COLORADO SUNDAY.

AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...THE RIDGE PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK
WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST. INCREASINGLY
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR LESS COVERAGE AND LOWER
INTENSITIES.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY. AN ONSHORE MARINE PUSH ON THE WEST
SIDE WILL PUT THE KABOSH ON SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES.

THE EASTERLY PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES
OF SHOWERS DUE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE OVER LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES. THE NAM SHOWS A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...BUT THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS LOW EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY
FLOW INDICATES IT WON`T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IT WILL
ALSO BE SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING MAXIMUM SOLAR HEATING...SO NVA
ALOFT WILL HELP SUPPRESS SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE STRONGEST EFFECT OF
THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE AN ONSHORE MARINE PUSH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE UNSTABLE AS A WEAK LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
BLOCK BRINGS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT FOR A MORE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. STILL DOESN`T LOOK IMPRESSIVE...BUT AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES EAST MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW
SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...BOTH BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-
RUN DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE SAME MODEL. THE GFS KEEPS A CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA MONDAY WHILE THE EC BUILDS IN A RIDGE
FROM THE WEST...MAKING FOR MORE STABLE AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR EAST SIDE. IN LIGHT OF ALL THIS...CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BEGIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MONDAY IS SHOWING THE BEST
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WEST
COAST AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION. FROM THERE THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
VARY WITH THE GFS INDICATING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS THE FIRST APPEARANCE OF THE
UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS HOWEVER...AND WITH THE ENSEMBLE PLOTS ALSO
INDICATING THAT THE ECMWF RIDGING IS ALSO AN OUTLIER HAVE BROAD-
BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. -SVEN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/06Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST,  MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING LATE
IN THE MORNING. THE UMPQUA BASIN COULD SEE MVFR CIGS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED IFR CIGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE KRBG AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT KLMT TO REMAIN VFR
BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. ALONG THE COAST
EXPECT A MIX OF IFR/LIFR...LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT THURSDAY 21 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS
INTO NEXT WEEK. FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL RESULT IN STEEP CHOPPY
SEAS OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TREND HIGHER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING HIGHER ON
WINDS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
EXTEND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS WELL. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF WEST SWELL
WITH SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INTO
MID NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FB/JRS/DJW/SBN/MSC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 221601
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
900 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE.

SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ARE AFFECTING THE CWA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE MOVING
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE CASCADES AND SPREADING INTO WEST SIDE
VALLEYS, SO BUMPED UP POPS IN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING. STEARING FLOW
IS MOSTLY NORTHERLY, THUS HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE
CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY MAINLY OVER THE EAST SIDE
AND SISKIYOUS, WITH NORTHERLY STEARING FLOW. UPDATED FORECAST TO
KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE WEST SIDE. -MSC/SBN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

SHOWERS ARE NOW WANING OVER THE MEDFORD CWA. THERE IS STILL SOME
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED...ESPECIALLY OVER MODOC
COUNTY. THERE IS MORE TO COME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND THE FOCUS WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF
THE HEMISPHERE FOR THE NEXT TEN DAYS...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BLOCK WILL BRING VARIABLE WEATHER TO THE AREA. IT WON`T BE ONE OF
THOSE "WARM AND DRY FOR TWO WEEKS" SCENARIOS.

CURRENTLY THERE IS A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH A HIGH SETTING UP
ALONG THE ALASKA/CANADA BOUNDARY AND A DEVELOPING EASTERN ANCHOR
LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT THE EASTERN ANCHOR LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO COLORADO SUNDAY.

AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...THE RIDGE PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK
WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST. INCREASINGLY
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR LESS COVERAGE AND LOWER
INTENSITIES.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY. AN ONSHORE MARINE PUSH ON THE WEST
SIDE WILL PUT THE KABOSH ON SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES.

THE EASTERLY PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES
OF SHOWERS DUE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE OVER LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES. THE NAM SHOWS A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...BUT THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS LOW EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY
FLOW INDICATES IT WON`T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IT WILL
ALSO BE SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING MAXIMUM SOLAR HEATING...SO NVA
ALOFT WILL HELP SUPPRESS SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE STRONGEST EFFECT OF
THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE AN ONSHORE MARINE PUSH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE UNSTABLE AS A WEAK LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
BLOCK BRINGS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT FOR A MORE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. STILL DOESN`T LOOK IMPRESSIVE...BUT AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES EAST MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW
SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...BOTH BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-
RUN DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE SAME MODEL. THE GFS KEEPS A CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA MONDAY WHILE THE EC BUILDS IN A RIDGE
FROM THE WEST...MAKING FOR MORE STABLE AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR EAST SIDE. IN LIGHT OF ALL THIS...CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BEGIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MONDAY IS SHOWING THE BEST
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WEST
COAST AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION. FROM THERE THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
VARY WITH THE GFS INDICATING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS THE FIRST APPEARANCE OF THE
UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS HOWEVER...AND WITH THE ENSEMBLE PLOTS ALSO
INDICATING THAT THE ECMWF RIDGING IS ALSO AN OUTLIER HAVE BROAD-
BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. -SVEN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/06Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST,  MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING LATE
IN THE MORNING. THE UMPQUA BASIN COULD SEE MVFR CIGS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED IFR CIGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE KRBG AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT KLMT TO REMAIN VFR
BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. ALONG THE COAST
EXPECT A MIX OF IFR/LIFR...LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT THURSDAY 21 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS
INTO NEXT WEEK. FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL RESULT IN STEEP CHOPPY
SEAS OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TREND HIGHER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING HIGHER ON
WINDS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
EXTEND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS WELL. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF WEST SWELL
WITH SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INTO
MID NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FB/JRS/DJW/SBN/MSC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 221601
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
900 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE.

SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ARE AFFECTING THE CWA THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE MOVING
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE CASCADES AND SPREADING INTO WEST SIDE
VALLEYS, SO BUMPED UP POPS IN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING. STEARING FLOW
IS MOSTLY NORTHERLY, THUS HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE
CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY MAINLY OVER THE EAST SIDE
AND SISKIYOUS, WITH NORTHERLY STEARING FLOW. UPDATED FORECAST TO
KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE WEST SIDE. -MSC/SBN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

SHOWERS ARE NOW WANING OVER THE MEDFORD CWA. THERE IS STILL SOME
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED...ESPECIALLY OVER MODOC
COUNTY. THERE IS MORE TO COME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND THE FOCUS WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF
THE HEMISPHERE FOR THE NEXT TEN DAYS...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BLOCK WILL BRING VARIABLE WEATHER TO THE AREA. IT WON`T BE ONE OF
THOSE "WARM AND DRY FOR TWO WEEKS" SCENARIOS.

CURRENTLY THERE IS A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH A HIGH SETTING UP
ALONG THE ALASKA/CANADA BOUNDARY AND A DEVELOPING EASTERN ANCHOR
LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT THE EASTERN ANCHOR LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO COLORADO SUNDAY.

AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...THE RIDGE PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK
WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST. INCREASINGLY
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR LESS COVERAGE AND LOWER
INTENSITIES.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY. AN ONSHORE MARINE PUSH ON THE WEST
SIDE WILL PUT THE KABOSH ON SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES.

THE EASTERLY PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES
OF SHOWERS DUE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE OVER LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES. THE NAM SHOWS A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...BUT THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS LOW EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY
FLOW INDICATES IT WON`T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IT WILL
ALSO BE SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING MAXIMUM SOLAR HEATING...SO NVA
ALOFT WILL HELP SUPPRESS SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE STRONGEST EFFECT OF
THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE AN ONSHORE MARINE PUSH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE UNSTABLE AS A WEAK LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
BLOCK BRINGS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT FOR A MORE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. STILL DOESN`T LOOK IMPRESSIVE...BUT AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES EAST MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW
SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...BOTH BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-
RUN DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE SAME MODEL. THE GFS KEEPS A CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA MONDAY WHILE THE EC BUILDS IN A RIDGE
FROM THE WEST...MAKING FOR MORE STABLE AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR EAST SIDE. IN LIGHT OF ALL THIS...CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BEGIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MONDAY IS SHOWING THE BEST
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WEST
COAST AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION. FROM THERE THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
VARY WITH THE GFS INDICATING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS THE FIRST APPEARANCE OF THE
UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS HOWEVER...AND WITH THE ENSEMBLE PLOTS ALSO
INDICATING THAT THE ECMWF RIDGING IS ALSO AN OUTLIER HAVE BROAD-
BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. -SVEN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/06Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST,  MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING LATE
IN THE MORNING. THE UMPQUA BASIN COULD SEE MVFR CIGS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED IFR CIGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE KRBG AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT KLMT TO REMAIN VFR
BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. ALONG THE COAST
EXPECT A MIX OF IFR/LIFR...LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT THURSDAY 21 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS
INTO NEXT WEEK. FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL RESULT IN STEEP CHOPPY
SEAS OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TREND HIGHER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING HIGHER ON
WINDS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
EXTEND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS WELL. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF WEST SWELL
WITH SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INTO
MID NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FB/JRS/DJW/SBN/MSC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221542
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
942 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL RESIDE BETWEEN A PAIR OF
UPPER LOWS TODAY...ONE TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN /MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE/...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS KTWF AND KJER
AREA...AS WELL AS KBNO KREO AND KONO AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN VALLEYS...ISOLATED
MVFR IN SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT
BECOMING N 10-20KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221542
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
942 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL RESIDE BETWEEN A PAIR OF
UPPER LOWS TODAY...ONE TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN /MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE/...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS KTWF AND KJER
AREA...AS WELL AS KBNO KREO AND KONO AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN VALLEYS...ISOLATED
MVFR IN SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT
BECOMING N 10-20KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221542
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
942 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL RESIDE BETWEEN A PAIR OF
UPPER LOWS TODAY...ONE TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN /MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE/...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS KTWF AND KJER
AREA...AS WELL AS KBNO KREO AND KONO AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN VALLEYS...ISOLATED
MVFR IN SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT
BECOMING N 10-20KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221542
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
942 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL RESIDE BETWEEN A PAIR OF
UPPER LOWS TODAY...ONE TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN /MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE/...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS KTWF AND KJER
AREA...AS WELL AS KBNO KREO AND KONO AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN VALLEYS...ISOLATED
MVFR IN SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT
BECOMING N 10-20KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 221541 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
835 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS ALONG WITH THE JOHN
DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO AFTN TEMPS AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

 &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT WWD AGAIN TODAY STARTING
AROUND 20Z. LIGHTNING MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL USE VCSH WHICH CAN BE FINE TUNED WITH VCTS IF NECESSARY LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE 5-8K FEET AGL WITH MID
CLOUD ABOVE. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  74  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  76  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  83  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  78  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  80  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  79  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  68  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  69  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  68  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  76  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 221541 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
835 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS ALONG WITH THE JOHN
DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO AFTN TEMPS AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

 &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT WWD AGAIN TODAY STARTING
AROUND 20Z. LIGHTNING MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL USE VCSH WHICH CAN BE FINE TUNED WITH VCTS IF NECESSARY LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE 5-8K FEET AGL WITH MID
CLOUD ABOVE. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  74  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  76  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  83  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  78  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  80  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  79  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  68  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  69  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  68  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  76  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/



000
FXUS66 KPDT 221541 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
835 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS ALONG WITH THE JOHN
DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO AFTN TEMPS AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

 &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT WWD AGAIN TODAY STARTING
AROUND 20Z. LIGHTNING MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL USE VCSH WHICH CAN BE FINE TUNED WITH VCTS IF NECESSARY LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE 5-8K FEET AGL WITH MID
CLOUD ABOVE. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  74  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  76  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  83  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  78  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  80  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  79  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  68  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  69  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  68  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  76  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 221541 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
835 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAP AROUND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO OUR AREA. COMBINING THIS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT REMAINS HIGH AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT INCLUDES THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS ALONG WITH THE JOHN
DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
ADDITION SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE DONE TO AFTN TEMPS AND THE PRESENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

 &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT WWD AGAIN TODAY STARTING
AROUND 20Z. LIGHTNING MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL USE VCSH WHICH CAN BE FINE TUNED WITH VCTS IF NECESSARY LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE 5-8K FEET AGL WITH MID
CLOUD ABOVE. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  74  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  76  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  83  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  78  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  80  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  79  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  68  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  69  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  68  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  76  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/



000
FXUS66 KPQR 221121
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
421 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN FRIDAY AND MOVE
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND EAST OF THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY
EVENING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
WEAKEN A LITTLE SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWER
CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UPDATED)...OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SIGNALING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GET ANY FURTHER
THUNDER. IN ADDITION...LATEST RADAR TREND SHOWS WEAKENING SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO COMLETELY DISSIPATE. HAVE ELIMINATED
THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS TODAY BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A DEEP MARINE
LAYER WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE DRIZZLE
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL MAY PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SUN
WITH LESS AFTERNOON SUN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE LESS ONSHORE FLOW. IN
ANY EVENT...GENERAL CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE...WITH ANY SHOWER THREAT
CONFINED TO NRN CASCADES. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH SITTING OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON THROUGH
TUE. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS MAINTAINS A CLOSED
FEATURE...KEEPING IT OVER SW WA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES BEST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE CWA WOULD BE
CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL...OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER SE WA WED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CASCADES
WED...BUT IF THE GFS IS MORE RIGHT...THEN IT WOULD BE DRY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALLY DISREGARD ANY PRECIP THREAT. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...THE LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS
ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT UP INTO AN MVFR CIG
TODAY. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INTO INLAND VALLEYS THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING VALLEY TAF SITES BY 12Z. THE INLAND CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO BREAK UP INTO A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z
LEAVING INLAND AREAS VFR. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT...AND SPREAD BACK INTO INLAND VALLEYS
AGAIN AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN BETWEEN 09Z
AND 11Z THIS MORNING...THEN BREAK UP AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
20Z AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN SPREAD MARINE
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS BACK INLAND AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES WELL OFFSHORE WILL KEEP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRESH SWELL OF
5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 221121
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
421 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN FRIDAY AND MOVE
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND EAST OF THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY
EVENING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
WEAKEN A LITTLE SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWER
CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UPDATED)...OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SIGNALING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GET ANY FURTHER
THUNDER. IN ADDITION...LATEST RADAR TREND SHOWS WEAKENING SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO COMLETELY DISSIPATE. HAVE ELIMINATED
THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS TODAY BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A DEEP MARINE
LAYER WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE DRIZZLE
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL MAY PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SUN
WITH LESS AFTERNOON SUN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE LESS ONSHORE FLOW. IN
ANY EVENT...GENERAL CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE...WITH ANY SHOWER THREAT
CONFINED TO NRN CASCADES. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH SITTING OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON THROUGH
TUE. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS MAINTAINS A CLOSED
FEATURE...KEEPING IT OVER SW WA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES BEST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE CWA WOULD BE
CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL...OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER SE WA WED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CASCADES
WED...BUT IF THE GFS IS MORE RIGHT...THEN IT WOULD BE DRY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALLY DISREGARD ANY PRECIP THREAT. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...THE LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS
ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT UP INTO AN MVFR CIG
TODAY. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INTO INLAND VALLEYS THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING VALLEY TAF SITES BY 12Z. THE INLAND CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO BREAK UP INTO A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z
LEAVING INLAND AREAS VFR. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT...AND SPREAD BACK INTO INLAND VALLEYS
AGAIN AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN BETWEEN 09Z
AND 11Z THIS MORNING...THEN BREAK UP AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
20Z AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN SPREAD MARINE
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS BACK INLAND AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES WELL OFFSHORE WILL KEEP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRESH SWELL OF
5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 221121
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
421 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN FRIDAY AND MOVE
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND EAST OF THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY
EVENING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
WEAKEN A LITTLE SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWER
CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UPDATED)...OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SIGNALING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GET ANY FURTHER
THUNDER. IN ADDITION...LATEST RADAR TREND SHOWS WEAKENING SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO COMLETELY DISSIPATE. HAVE ELIMINATED
THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS TODAY BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A DEEP MARINE
LAYER WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE DRIZZLE
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL MAY PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SUN
WITH LESS AFTERNOON SUN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE LESS ONSHORE FLOW. IN
ANY EVENT...GENERAL CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE...WITH ANY SHOWER THREAT
CONFINED TO NRN CASCADES. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH SITTING OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON THROUGH
TUE. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS MAINTAINS A CLOSED
FEATURE...KEEPING IT OVER SW WA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES BEST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE CWA WOULD BE
CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL...OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER SE WA WED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CASCADES
WED...BUT IF THE GFS IS MORE RIGHT...THEN IT WOULD BE DRY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALLY DISREGARD ANY PRECIP THREAT. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...THE LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS
ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT UP INTO AN MVFR CIG
TODAY. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INTO INLAND VALLEYS THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING VALLEY TAF SITES BY 12Z. THE INLAND CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO BREAK UP INTO A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z
LEAVING INLAND AREAS VFR. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT...AND SPREAD BACK INTO INLAND VALLEYS
AGAIN AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN BETWEEN 09Z
AND 11Z THIS MORNING...THEN BREAK UP AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
20Z AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN SPREAD MARINE
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS BACK INLAND AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES WELL OFFSHORE WILL KEEP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRESH SWELL OF
5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 221121
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
421 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN FRIDAY AND MOVE
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND EAST OF THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY
EVENING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
WEAKEN A LITTLE SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWER
CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UPDATED)...OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SIGNALING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GET ANY FURTHER
THUNDER. IN ADDITION...LATEST RADAR TREND SHOWS WEAKENING SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO COMLETELY DISSIPATE. HAVE ELIMINATED
THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWLANDS TODAY BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A DEEP MARINE
LAYER WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE DRIZZLE
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL MAY PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SUN
WITH LESS AFTERNOON SUN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE LESS ONSHORE FLOW. IN
ANY EVENT...GENERAL CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE...WITH ANY SHOWER THREAT
CONFINED TO NRN CASCADES. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH SITTING OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON THROUGH
TUE. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS MAINTAINS A CLOSED
FEATURE...KEEPING IT OVER SW WA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES BEST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE CWA WOULD BE
CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL...OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER SE WA WED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CASCADES
WED...BUT IF THE GFS IS MORE RIGHT...THEN IT WOULD BE DRY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALLY DISREGARD ANY PRECIP THREAT. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...THE LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS
ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT UP INTO AN MVFR CIG
TODAY. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INTO INLAND VALLEYS THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING VALLEY TAF SITES BY 12Z. THE INLAND CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO BREAK UP INTO A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z
LEAVING INLAND AREAS VFR. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT...AND SPREAD BACK INTO INLAND VALLEYS
AGAIN AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN BETWEEN 09Z
AND 11Z THIS MORNING...THEN BREAK UP AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
20Z AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN SPREAD MARINE
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS BACK INLAND AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES WELL OFFSHORE WILL KEEP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRESH SWELL OF
5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 221104 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT WWD AGAIN TODAY STARTING
AROUND 20Z. LIGHTNING MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL USE VCSH WHICH CAN BE FINE TUNED WITH VCTS IF NECESSARY LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE 5-8K FEET AGL WITH MID
CLOUD ABOVE. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  77  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  84  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  81  57  81  53 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  81  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  80  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  69  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  70  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  69  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  77  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/78/78




000
FXUS66 KPDT 221104 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT WWD AGAIN TODAY STARTING
AROUND 20Z. LIGHTNING MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL USE VCSH WHICH CAN BE FINE TUNED WITH VCTS IF NECESSARY LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE 5-8K FEET AGL WITH MID
CLOUD ABOVE. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO 25 KT AT KDLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  77  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  84  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  81  57  81  53 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  81  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  80  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  69  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  70  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  69  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  77  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/78/78



000
FXUS66 KPDT 221002
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY.
INCREASING WEST FLOW FROM THE GORGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL
INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW AND DECENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MAIN SHOWER AND STORM FOCUS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERING THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS NORTH TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY. A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A DEFORMATION
PRECIP BAND MAY DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
40-60 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME A BIT DRIER, LIMITING THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH NWLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING AT LEAST BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EAST AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ON MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WASHINGTON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OUT AND
REPLACES IT WITH DRY NW FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST
UPDATE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT WWD AGAIN TODAY STARTING
AROUND 20Z. LIGHTNING MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL USE VCSH WHICH CAN BE FINE TUNED WITH VCTS IF NECESSARY LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE 5-8K FEET AGL WITH MID
CLOUD ABOVE. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  76  54  73  51 /  50  40  40  20
ALW  77  56  75  55 /  50  50  30  20
PSC  84  58  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
YKM  81  57  81  53 /  60  40  40  20
HRI  81  57  78  53 /  50  40  30  10
ELN  80  56  78  54 /  60  40  40  20
RDM  69  44  68  39 /  40  20  20  10
LGD  70  54  68  50 /  80  60  40  30
GCD  69  49  69  45 /  80  60  30  20
DLS  77  57  70  54 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/78/78




000
FXUS65 KBOI 220927
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z/FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR
LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT BECOMING NE 10-20KT BY 18Z/FRI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 220927
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z/FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR
LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT BECOMING NE 10-20KT BY 18Z/FRI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KPQR 220927
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
227 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN FRIDAY AND MOVE
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND EAST OF THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY
EVENING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
WEAKEN A LITTLE SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWER
CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT GENERALLY
FROM THE EASTERN COAST RANGE EAST THROUGH THE CASCADES. WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN HAVING SHIFTED FROM THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...HAVE MADE THE FORECAST PERSISTENT WITH
SHOWER CHANCES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY EVEN MAKE IT TOWARD THE
COAST...SO HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR NOW BUT WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND MAY MAKE ANOTHER UPDATE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AS IT STANDS...THE
SHORT-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A DEEP MARINE
LAYER WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE DRIZZLE
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL MAY PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SUN
WITH LESS AFTERNOON SUN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE LESS ONSHORE FLOW. IN
ANY EVENT...GENERAL CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE...WITH ANY SHOWER THREAT
CONFINED TO NRN CASCADES. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH SITTING OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON THROUGH
TUE. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS MAINTAINS A CLOSED
FEATURE...KEEPING IT OVER SW WA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES BEST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE CWA WOULD BE
CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL...OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER SE WA WED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CASCADES
WED...BUT IF THE GFS IS MORE RIGHT...THEN IT WOULD BE DRY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALLY DISREGARD ANY PRECIP THREAT. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...THE LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS
ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT UP INTO AN MVFR CIG
TODAY. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INTO INLAND VALLEYS THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING VALLEY TAF SITES BY 12Z. THE INLAND CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO BREAK UP INTO A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z
LEAVING INLAND AREAS VFR. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT...AND SPREAD BACK INTO INLAND VALLEYS
AGAIN AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN BETWEEN 09Z
AND 11Z THIS MORNING...THEN BREAK UP AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
20Z AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN SPREAD MARINE
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS BACK INLAND AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES WELL OFFSHORE WILL KEEP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRESH SWELL OF
5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 220927
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
227 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN FRIDAY AND MOVE
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND EAST OF THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY
EVENING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
WEAKEN A LITTLE SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWER
CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT GENERALLY
FROM THE EASTERN COAST RANGE EAST THROUGH THE CASCADES. WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN HAVING SHIFTED FROM THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...HAVE MADE THE FORECAST PERSISTENT WITH
SHOWER CHANCES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY EVEN MAKE IT TOWARD THE
COAST...SO HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR NOW BUT WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND MAY MAKE ANOTHER UPDATE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AS IT STANDS...THE
SHORT-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A DEEP MARINE
LAYER WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE DRIZZLE
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL MAY PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SUN
WITH LESS AFTERNOON SUN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE LESS ONSHORE FLOW. IN
ANY EVENT...GENERAL CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE...WITH ANY SHOWER THREAT
CONFINED TO NRN CASCADES. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH SITTING OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON THROUGH
TUE. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS MAINTAINS A CLOSED
FEATURE...KEEPING IT OVER SW WA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES BEST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE CWA WOULD BE
CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL...OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER SE WA WED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CASCADES
WED...BUT IF THE GFS IS MORE RIGHT...THEN IT WOULD BE DRY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALLY DISREGARD ANY PRECIP THREAT. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...THE LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS
ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT UP INTO AN MVFR CIG
TODAY. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INTO INLAND VALLEYS THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING VALLEY TAF SITES BY 12Z. THE INLAND CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO BREAK UP INTO A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z
LEAVING INLAND AREAS VFR. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT...AND SPREAD BACK INTO INLAND VALLEYS
AGAIN AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN BETWEEN 09Z
AND 11Z THIS MORNING...THEN BREAK UP AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
20Z AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN SPREAD MARINE
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS BACK INLAND AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES WELL OFFSHORE WILL KEEP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRESH SWELL OF
5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 220927
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
227 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN FRIDAY AND MOVE
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND EAST OF THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY
EVENING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
WEAKEN A LITTLE SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWER
CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT GENERALLY
FROM THE EASTERN COAST RANGE EAST THROUGH THE CASCADES. WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN HAVING SHIFTED FROM THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...HAVE MADE THE FORECAST PERSISTENT WITH
SHOWER CHANCES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY EVEN MAKE IT TOWARD THE
COAST...SO HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR NOW BUT WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND MAY MAKE ANOTHER UPDATE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AS IT STANDS...THE
SHORT-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A DEEP MARINE
LAYER WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE DRIZZLE
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL MAY PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SUN
WITH LESS AFTERNOON SUN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE LESS ONSHORE FLOW. IN
ANY EVENT...GENERAL CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE...WITH ANY SHOWER THREAT
CONFINED TO NRN CASCADES. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH SITTING OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON THROUGH
TUE. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS MAINTAINS A CLOSED
FEATURE...KEEPING IT OVER SW WA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES BEST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE CWA WOULD BE
CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL...OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER SE WA WED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CASCADES
WED...BUT IF THE GFS IS MORE RIGHT...THEN IT WOULD BE DRY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALLY DISREGARD ANY PRECIP THREAT. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...THE LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS
ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT UP INTO AN MVFR CIG
TODAY. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INTO INLAND VALLEYS THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING VALLEY TAF SITES BY 12Z. THE INLAND CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO BREAK UP INTO A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z
LEAVING INLAND AREAS VFR. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT...AND SPREAD BACK INTO INLAND VALLEYS
AGAIN AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN BETWEEN 09Z
AND 11Z THIS MORNING...THEN BREAK UP AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
20Z AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN SPREAD MARINE
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS BACK INLAND AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES WELL OFFSHORE WILL KEEP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRESH SWELL OF
5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 220927
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
227 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN FRIDAY AND MOVE
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND EAST OF THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY
EVENING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
WEAKEN A LITTLE SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWER
CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT GENERALLY
FROM THE EASTERN COAST RANGE EAST THROUGH THE CASCADES. WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN HAVING SHIFTED FROM THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...HAVE MADE THE FORECAST PERSISTENT WITH
SHOWER CHANCES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY EVEN MAKE IT TOWARD THE
COAST...SO HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR NOW BUT WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND MAY MAKE ANOTHER UPDATE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AS IT STANDS...THE
SHORT-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A DEEP MARINE
LAYER WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE DRIZZLE
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL MAY PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SUN
WITH LESS AFTERNOON SUN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE LESS ONSHORE FLOW. IN
ANY EVENT...GENERAL CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE...WITH ANY SHOWER THREAT
CONFINED TO NRN CASCADES. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH SITTING OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON THROUGH
TUE. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS MAINTAINS A CLOSED
FEATURE...KEEPING IT OVER SW WA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES BEST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE CWA WOULD BE
CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL...OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER SE WA WED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CASCADES
WED...BUT IF THE GFS IS MORE RIGHT...THEN IT WOULD BE DRY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALLY DISREGARD ANY PRECIP THREAT. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...THE LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS
ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT UP INTO AN MVFR CIG
TODAY. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INTO INLAND VALLEYS THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING VALLEY TAF SITES BY 12Z. THE INLAND CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO BREAK UP INTO A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z
LEAVING INLAND AREAS VFR. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT...AND SPREAD BACK INTO INLAND VALLEYS
AGAIN AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN BETWEEN 09Z
AND 11Z THIS MORNING...THEN BREAK UP AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
20Z AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN SPREAD MARINE
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS BACK INLAND AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES WELL OFFSHORE WILL KEEP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRESH SWELL OF
5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 220927
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z/FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR
LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT BECOMING NE 10-20KT BY 18Z/FRI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS66 KPQR 220927
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
227 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN FRIDAY AND MOVE
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND EAST OF THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY
EVENING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
WEAKEN A LITTLE SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWER
CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT GENERALLY
FROM THE EASTERN COAST RANGE EAST THROUGH THE CASCADES. WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN HAVING SHIFTED FROM THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...HAVE MADE THE FORECAST PERSISTENT WITH
SHOWER CHANCES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY EVEN MAKE IT TOWARD THE
COAST...SO HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR NOW BUT WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND MAY MAKE ANOTHER UPDATE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AS IT STANDS...THE
SHORT-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A DEEP MARINE
LAYER WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE DRIZZLE
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL MAY PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SUN
WITH LESS AFTERNOON SUN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE LESS ONSHORE FLOW. IN
ANY EVENT...GENERAL CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE...WITH ANY SHOWER THREAT
CONFINED TO NRN CASCADES. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH SITTING OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON THROUGH
TUE. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS MAINTAINS A CLOSED
FEATURE...KEEPING IT OVER SW WA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES BEST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE CWA WOULD BE
CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL...OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER SE WA WED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CASCADES
WED...BUT IF THE GFS IS MORE RIGHT...THEN IT WOULD BE DRY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALLY DISREGARD ANY PRECIP THREAT. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...THE LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS
ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT UP INTO AN MVFR CIG
TODAY. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INTO INLAND VALLEYS THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING VALLEY TAF SITES BY 12Z. THE INLAND CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO BREAK UP INTO A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z
LEAVING INLAND AREAS VFR. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT...AND SPREAD BACK INTO INLAND VALLEYS
AGAIN AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN BETWEEN 09Z
AND 11Z THIS MORNING...THEN BREAK UP AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
20Z AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN SPREAD MARINE
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS BACK INLAND AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES WELL OFFSHORE WILL KEEP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRESH SWELL OF
5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 220927
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
227 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN FRIDAY AND MOVE
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND EAST OF THE CASCADES BY FRIDAY
EVENING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
WEAKEN A LITTLE SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWER
CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT GENERALLY
FROM THE EASTERN COAST RANGE EAST THROUGH THE CASCADES. WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN HAVING SHIFTED FROM THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...HAVE MADE THE FORECAST PERSISTENT WITH
SHOWER CHANCES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY EVEN MAKE IT TOWARD THE
COAST...SO HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR NOW BUT WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND MAY MAKE ANOTHER UPDATE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AS IT STANDS...THE
SHORT-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A DEEP MARINE
LAYER WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE DRIZZLE
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL MAY PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SUN
WITH LESS AFTERNOON SUN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE LESS ONSHORE FLOW. IN
ANY EVENT...GENERAL CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE...WITH ANY SHOWER THREAT
CONFINED TO NRN CASCADES. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH SITTING OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON THROUGH
TUE. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS MAINTAINS A CLOSED
FEATURE...KEEPING IT OVER SW WA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES BEST...THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE CWA WOULD BE
CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL...OVER THE CASCADES. THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER SE WA WED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CASCADES
WED...BUT IF THE GFS IS MORE RIGHT...THEN IT WOULD BE DRY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALLY DISREGARD ANY PRECIP THREAT. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...THE LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS
ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT UP INTO AN MVFR CIG
TODAY. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INTO INLAND VALLEYS THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING VALLEY TAF SITES BY 12Z. THE INLAND CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO BREAK UP INTO A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z
LEAVING INLAND AREAS VFR. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT...AND SPREAD BACK INTO INLAND VALLEYS
AGAIN AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN BETWEEN 09Z
AND 11Z THIS MORNING...THEN BREAK UP AGAIN TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
20Z AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN SPREAD MARINE
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS BACK INLAND AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES WELL OFFSHORE WILL KEEP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRESH SWELL OF
5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE OUT OF THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 220927
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z/FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR
LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT BECOMING NE 10-20KT BY 18Z/FRI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KMFR 220759
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1259 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

SHOWERS ARE NOW WANING OVER THE MEDFORD CWA. THERE IS STILL SOME
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED...ESPECIALLY OVER MODOC
COUNTY. THERE IS MORE TO COME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND THE FOCUS WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF
THE HEMISPHERE FOR THE NEXT TEN DAYS...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BLOCK WILL BRING VARIABLE WEATHER TO THE AREA. IT WON`T BE ONE OF
THOSE "WARM AND DRY FOR TWO WEEKS" SCENARIOS.

CURRENTLY THERE IS A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH A HIGH SETTING UP
ALONG THE ALASKA/CANADA BOUNDARY AND A DEVELOPING EASTERN ANCHOR
LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT THE EASTERN ANCHOR LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO COLORADO SUNDAY.

AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...THE RIDGE PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK
WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST. INCREASINGLY
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR LESS COVERAGE AND LOWER
INTENSITIES.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY. AN ONSHORE MARINE PUSH ON THE WEST
SIDE WILL PUT THE KABOSH ON SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES.

THE EASTERLY PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES
OF SHOWERS DUE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE OVER LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES. THE NAM SHOWS A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...BUT THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS LOW EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY
FLOW INDICATES IT WON`T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IT WILL
ALSO BE SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING MAXIMUM SOLAR HEATING...SO NVA
ALOFT WILL HELP SUPPRESS SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE STRONGEST EFFECT OF
THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE AN ONSHORE MARINE PUSH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE UNSTABLE AS A WEAK LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
BLOCK BRINGS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT FOR A MORE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. STILL DOESN`T LOOK IMPRESSIVE...BUT AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES EAST MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW
SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...BOTH BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-
RUN DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE SAME MODEL. THE GFS KEEPS A CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA MONDAY WHILE THE EC BUILDS IN A RIDGE
FROM THE WEST...MAKING FOR MORE STABLE AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR EAST SIDE. IN LIGHT OF ALL THIS...CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BEGIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MONDAY IS SHOWING THE BEST
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WEST
COAST AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION. FROM THERE THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
VARY WITH THE GFS INDICATING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS THE FIRST APPEARANCE OF THE
UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS HOWEVER...AND WITH THE ENSEMBLE PLOTS ALSO
INDICATING THAT THE ECMWF RIDGING IS ALSO AN OUTLIER HAVE BROAD-
BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. -SVEN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/06Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST,  MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING LATE
IN THE MORNING. THE UMPQUA BASIN COULD SEE MVFR CIGS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED IFR CIGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE KRBG AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT KLMT TO REMAIN VFR
BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. ALONG THE COAST
EXPECT A MIX OF IFR/LIFR...LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT THURSDAY 21 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS
INTO NEXT WEEK. FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL RESULT IN STEEP CHOPPY
SEAS OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TREND HIGHER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING HIGHER ON
WINDS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
EXTEND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS WELL. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF WEST SWELL
WITH SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INTO
MID NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/16



000
FXUS66 KMFR 220759
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1259 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

SHOWERS ARE NOW WANING OVER THE MEDFORD CWA. THERE IS STILL SOME
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED...ESPECIALLY OVER MODOC
COUNTY. THERE IS MORE TO COME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND THE FOCUS WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THIS PART OF
THE HEMISPHERE FOR THE NEXT TEN DAYS...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BLOCK WILL BRING VARIABLE WEATHER TO THE AREA. IT WON`T BE ONE OF
THOSE "WARM AND DRY FOR TWO WEEKS" SCENARIOS.

CURRENTLY THERE IS A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH A HIGH SETTING UP
ALONG THE ALASKA/CANADA BOUNDARY AND A DEVELOPING EASTERN ANCHOR
LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT THE EASTERN ANCHOR LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO COLORADO SUNDAY.

AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...THE RIDGE PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK
WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST. INCREASINGLY
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR LESS COVERAGE AND LOWER
INTENSITIES.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY. AN ONSHORE MARINE PUSH ON THE WEST
SIDE WILL PUT THE KABOSH ON SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES.

THE EASTERLY PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES
OF SHOWERS DUE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE OVER LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES. THE NAM SHOWS A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...BUT THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS LOW EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY
FLOW INDICATES IT WON`T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IT WILL
ALSO BE SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING MAXIMUM SOLAR HEATING...SO NVA
ALOFT WILL HELP SUPPRESS SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE STRONGEST EFFECT OF
THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE AN ONSHORE MARINE PUSH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE UNSTABLE AS A WEAK LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
BLOCK BRINGS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT FOR A MORE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. STILL DOESN`T LOOK IMPRESSIVE...BUT AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES EAST MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW
SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...BOTH BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-
RUN DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE SAME MODEL. THE GFS KEEPS A CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA MONDAY WHILE THE EC BUILDS IN A RIDGE
FROM THE WEST...MAKING FOR MORE STABLE AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR EAST SIDE. IN LIGHT OF ALL THIS...CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS BEGIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MONDAY IS SHOWING THE BEST
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WEST
COAST AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION. FROM THERE THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
VARY WITH THE GFS INDICATING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS THE FIRST APPEARANCE OF THE
UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS HOWEVER...AND WITH THE ENSEMBLE PLOTS ALSO
INDICATING THAT THE ECMWF RIDGING IS ALSO AN OUTLIER HAVE BROAD-
BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. -SVEN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/06Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST,  MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING LATE
IN THE MORNING. THE UMPQUA BASIN COULD SEE MVFR CIGS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED IFR CIGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE KRBG AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT KLMT TO REMAIN VFR
BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. ALONG THE COAST
EXPECT A MIX OF IFR/LIFR...LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT THURSDAY 21 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS
INTO NEXT WEEK. FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL RESULT IN STEEP CHOPPY
SEAS OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TREND HIGHER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING HIGHER ON
WINDS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
EXTEND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS WELL. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF WEST SWELL
WITH SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INTO
MID NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/16




000
FXUS66 KPDT 220550 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1045 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA DROPPING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SHORT TIMES. MANY AREAS
REPORTED OVER 1 INCH RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. MULTIPLE FLASH
FLOOD WARINGS WERE ISSUED. THE STORMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY
BUT A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE UPPER YAKIMA
VALLEY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS TO TO
BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT AT KRDM AND KBDN. IFR CIGS AND MVFRPOSSIBLE
UNTIL 15Z DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAIN. MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 20Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.  CONFIDENCE TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IS LOW.   76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  BUSY SHIFT TODAY AS WE FOCUS
ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL AS THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.  CONVECTION IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 0.5 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
WASHINGTON.  THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE FRIDAY.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE IDAHO BORDER.  THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OR CASCADES WILL END TONIGHT AS A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STABILIZES THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MAY ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA
CASCADES...AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF MT. ADAMS.  THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE SHIFTS TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH IS
NEEDED.  THE LATEST GFS SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH THIS UPSTREAM LOW AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS WA/OR ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECWMF.
THIS HAS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WILL CONSIDER THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRONGER LOW AND MORE
BULLISH QPF...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AND LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS.  ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.  WISTER

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE LOW OVER
THE AREA THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF KICKS THE LOW EAST BY
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THUS WILL LITTLE CONFIDENCE...I HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  75  53  72 /  50  50  50  60
ALW  56  78  56  74 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  60  83  59  80 /  40  50  50  30
YKM  59  78  58  78 /  40  70  40  40
HRI  59  81  59  78 /  30  50  50  40
ELN  56  76  54  75 /  40  70  40  40
RDM  51  68  42  66 /  70  50  20  30
LGD  52  69  54  67 /  50  80  50  50
GCD  48  69  51  66 /  70  80  60  40
DLS  59  76  57  72 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ509.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76




000
FXUS66 KPDT 220550 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1045 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA DROPPING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SHORT TIMES. MANY AREAS
REPORTED OVER 1 INCH RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. MULTIPLE FLASH
FLOOD WARINGS WERE ISSUED. THE STORMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY
BUT A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE UPPER YAKIMA
VALLEY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS TO TO
BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT AT KRDM AND KBDN. IFR CIGS AND MVFRPOSSIBLE
UNTIL 15Z DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAIN. MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 20Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.  CONFIDENCE TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IS LOW.   76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  BUSY SHIFT TODAY AS WE FOCUS
ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL AS THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.  CONVECTION IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 0.5 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
WASHINGTON.  THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE FRIDAY.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE IDAHO BORDER.  THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OR CASCADES WILL END TONIGHT AS A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STABILIZES THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MAY ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA
CASCADES...AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF MT. ADAMS.  THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE SHIFTS TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH IS
NEEDED.  THE LATEST GFS SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH THIS UPSTREAM LOW AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS WA/OR ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECWMF.
THIS HAS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WILL CONSIDER THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRONGER LOW AND MORE
BULLISH QPF...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AND LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS.  ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.  WISTER

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE LOW OVER
THE AREA THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF KICKS THE LOW EAST BY
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THUS WILL LITTLE CONFIDENCE...I HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  75  53  72 /  50  50  50  60
ALW  56  78  56  74 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  60  83  59  80 /  40  50  50  30
YKM  59  78  58  78 /  40  70  40  40
HRI  59  81  59  78 /  30  50  50  40
ELN  56  76  54  75 /  40  70  40  40
RDM  51  68  42  66 /  70  50  20  30
LGD  52  69  54  67 /  50  80  50  50
GCD  48  69  51  66 /  70  80  60  40
DLS  59  76  57  72 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ509.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76



000
FXUS66 KPDT 220550 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1045 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA DROPPING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SHORT TIMES. MANY AREAS
REPORTED OVER 1 INCH RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. MULTIPLE FLASH
FLOOD WARINGS WERE ISSUED. THE STORMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY
BUT A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE UPPER YAKIMA
VALLEY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS TO TO
BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT AT KRDM AND KBDN. IFR CIGS AND MVFRPOSSIBLE
UNTIL 15Z DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAIN. MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 20Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.  CONFIDENCE TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IS LOW.   76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  BUSY SHIFT TODAY AS WE FOCUS
ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL AS THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.  CONVECTION IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 0.5 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
WASHINGTON.  THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE FRIDAY.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE IDAHO BORDER.  THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OR CASCADES WILL END TONIGHT AS A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STABILIZES THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MAY ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA
CASCADES...AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF MT. ADAMS.  THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE SHIFTS TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH IS
NEEDED.  THE LATEST GFS SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH THIS UPSTREAM LOW AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS WA/OR ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECWMF.
THIS HAS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WILL CONSIDER THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRONGER LOW AND MORE
BULLISH QPF...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AND LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS.  ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.  WISTER

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE LOW OVER
THE AREA THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF KICKS THE LOW EAST BY
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THUS WILL LITTLE CONFIDENCE...I HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  75  53  72 /  50  50  50  60
ALW  56  78  56  74 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  60  83  59  80 /  40  50  50  30
YKM  59  78  58  78 /  40  70  40  40
HRI  59  81  59  78 /  30  50  50  40
ELN  56  76  54  75 /  40  70  40  40
RDM  51  68  42  66 /  70  50  20  30
LGD  52  69  54  67 /  50  80  50  50
GCD  48  69  51  66 /  70  80  60  40
DLS  59  76  57  72 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ509.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76



000
FXUS66 KPDT 220550 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1045 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA DROPPING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SHORT TIMES. MANY AREAS
REPORTED OVER 1 INCH RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. MULTIPLE FLASH
FLOOD WARINGS WERE ISSUED. THE STORMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY
BUT A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE UPPER YAKIMA
VALLEY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS TO TO
BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT AT KRDM AND KBDN. IFR CIGS AND MVFRPOSSIBLE
UNTIL 15Z DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAIN. MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 20Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.  CONFIDENCE TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IS LOW.   76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  BUSY SHIFT TODAY AS WE FOCUS
ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL AS THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.  CONVECTION IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 0.5 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
WASHINGTON.  THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE FRIDAY.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE IDAHO BORDER.  THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OR CASCADES WILL END TONIGHT AS A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STABILIZES THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MAY ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA
CASCADES...AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF MT. ADAMS.  THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE SHIFTS TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH IS
NEEDED.  THE LATEST GFS SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH THIS UPSTREAM LOW AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS WA/OR ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECWMF.
THIS HAS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WILL CONSIDER THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRONGER LOW AND MORE
BULLISH QPF...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AND LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS.  ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.  WISTER

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE LOW OVER
THE AREA THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF KICKS THE LOW EAST BY
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THUS WILL LITTLE CONFIDENCE...I HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  75  53  72 /  50  50  50  60
ALW  56  78  56  74 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  60  83  59  80 /  40  50  50  30
YKM  59  78  58  78 /  40  70  40  40
HRI  59  81  59  78 /  30  50  50  40
ELN  56  76  54  75 /  40  70  40  40
RDM  51  68  42  66 /  70  50  20  30
LGD  52  69  54  67 /  50  80  50  50
GCD  48  69  51  66 /  70  80  60  40
DLS  59  76  57  72 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ509.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76




000
FXUS66 KPQR 220404
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
904 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND MOVE
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES. STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN A LITTLE SUNDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST
RANGE THIS EVENING...PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVED
OVER THE FOOTHILLS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ENDING NOW THAT THE SUN HAS
SET...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE LAYER OF MARINE CLOUDS OFFSHORE
AND ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE WINDS ARE PUSHING THESE CLOUDS INLAND.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN DEEP TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA DROPS SOUTH TOWARDS NW
OREGON. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
FOG/DRIZZLE TO ACCOMPANY THE MARINE LAYER FRIDAY MORNING.THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ENHANCE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE
CASCADES.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE DRIZZLE SATURDAY MORNING.
THE LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL MAY
PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SUN
WITH LESS AFTERNOON SUN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE LESS ONSHORE FLOW. IN
ANY EVENT...GENERAL CONDITIONS LOOK STABLE...WITH ANY SHOWER THREAT
CONFINED TO NRN PART OF S WA CASCADE ZONE. TJ/WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OR
TROUGH SITTING OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON THROUGH TUE. MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS MAINTAINS A CLOSED FEATURE...KEEPING IT
OVER SW WA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH A LITTLE MORE
EAST THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES BEST...THE MAIN
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE CWA WOULD BE CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WITH THE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL...OVER THE
CASCADES. THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE OVER SE WA
WED...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE CASCADES WED...BUT IF THE GFS IS
MORE RIGHT...THEN IT WOULD BE DRY. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALLY
DISREGARD ANY PRECIP THREAT. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD
OFF THE CASCADES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORMED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAVE MOSTLY
ENDED...BUT AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE COAST REMAINS IFR THIS EVENING UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...AND
SHOULD REMAIN IFR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF FRI. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD FRI AFTERNOON. THE
INTERIOR SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT EXPECT MARINE
STRATUS AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. VFR
SHOULD RETURN INLAND BY 19Z TO 21Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFTING SOUTHWEST OFF THE
CASCADES COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z AS MARINE STRATUS
RETURNS...WITH VFR RETURNING BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z FRI. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A RATHER PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WITH HIGH PRES
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE NW BUT GENERALLY
BELOW 20 KT. A FRESH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE OUT OF
THE WNW.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 220350
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
850 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA DROPPING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SHORT TIMES. MANY AREAS
REPORTED OVER 1 INCH RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. MULTIPLE FLASH
FLOOD WARINGS WERE ISSUED. THE STORMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY
BUT A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE UPPER YAKIMA
VALLEY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS TO TO
BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. COONFIELD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  BUSY SHIFT TODAY AS WE FOCUS
ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL AS THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.  CONVECTION IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 0.5 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
WASHINGTON.  THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE FRIDAY.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE IDAHO BORDER.  THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OR CASCADES WILL END TONIGHT AS A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STABILIZES THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MAY ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA
CASCADES...AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF MT. ADAMS.  THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE SHIFTS TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH IS
NEEDED.  THE LATEST GFS SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH THIS UPSTREAM LOW AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS WA/OR ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECWMF.
THIS HAS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WILL CONSIDER THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRONGER LOW AND MORE
BULLISH QPF...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AND LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS.  ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.  WISTER

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE LOW OVER
THE AREA THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF KICKS THE LOW EAST BY
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THUS WILL LITTLE CONFIDENCE...I HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS.  GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 04Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.  CONFIDENCE TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IS LOW.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AFTER
20Z.  93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  75  53  72 /  50  50  50  60
ALW  56  78  56  74 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  60  83  59  80 /  40  50  50  30
YKM  59  78  58  78 /  40  70  40  40
HRI  59  81  59  78 /  30  50  50  40
ELN  56  76  54  75 /  40  70  40  40
RDM  51  68  42  66 /  70  50  20  30
LGD  52  69  54  67 /  50  80  50  50
GCD  48  69  51  66 /  70  80  60  40
DLS  59  76  57  72 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ509.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76



000
FXUS66 KPDT 220350
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
850 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA DROPPING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SHORT TIMES. MANY AREAS
REPORTED OVER 1 INCH RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. MULTIPLE FLASH
FLOOD WARINGS WERE ISSUED. THE STORMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY
BUT A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE UPPER YAKIMA
VALLEY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS TO TO
BLUE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. COONFIELD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  BUSY SHIFT TODAY AS WE FOCUS
ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL AS THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.  CONVECTION IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 0.5 INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
WASHINGTON.  THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE FRIDAY.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE JOHN DAY-OCHOCO HIGHLANDS AND
FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE IDAHO BORDER.  THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OR CASCADES WILL END TONIGHT AS A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STABILIZES THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MAY ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA
CASCADES...AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF MT. ADAMS.  THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED BY FUTURE SHIFTS TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH IS
NEEDED.  THE LATEST GFS SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH THIS UPSTREAM LOW AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS WA/OR ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECWMF.
THIS HAS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WILL CONSIDER THE GFS AS AN OUTLIER WITH THE STRONGER LOW AND MORE
BULLISH QPF...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AND LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS.  ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH.  WISTER

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE LOW OVER
THE AREA THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF KICKS THE LOW EAST BY
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THUS WILL LITTLE CONFIDENCE...I HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS.  GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 04Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.  CONFIDENCE TO PUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IS LOW.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AFTER
20Z.  93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  75  53  72 /  50  50  50  60
ALW  56  78  56  74 /  50  50  50  50
PSC  60  83  59  80 /  40  50  50  30
YKM  59  78  58  78 /  40  70  40  40
HRI  59  81  59  78 /  30  50  50  40
ELN  56  76  54  75 /  40  70  40  40
RDM  51  68  42  66 /  70  50  20  30
LGD  52  69  54  67 /  50  80  50  50
GCD  48  69  51  66 /  70  80  60  40
DLS  59  76  57  72 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ORZ049-050-502-503-
     505-506.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ509.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.

WA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WAZ030.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

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