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000
FXUS66 KPDT 312129
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
229 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LATEST PACIFIC FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO IDAHO. SURFACE HEATING, COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT, HAS
RESULTED IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES, ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET. A FEW
STRAY THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNSET. WINDS HAVE LARGELY BEEN
STAYING UNDER 30 MPH SUSTAINED. WITH MIXING AND THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WILL KEEP ALL CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES GOING INTO THE
EVENING. WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL
MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 FEET OVERNIGHT, BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND LOCALIZED DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP. COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING UNDER THIS COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL
PERSIST UNTIL SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND FROM THE
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY THURSDAY. A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP AS WELL OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY.
90

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NE PAC WILL SPIN DISTURBANCES INTO THE PACNW THIS WEEKEND
KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL INCH CLOSER TO OR/WA ON SUNDAY AND THE PCPN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND 3K-3500K AND SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND MONDAY AND THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER STRONGER
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE TWO STATE AREA TUESDAY THAT WILL KEEP THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...LCL MVFR CEILINGS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS THAT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE ENTIRE
AREA WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS BEFORE DECREASING
AFTER 02Z. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
AROUND 08Z WHICH COULD CREATE LCL MVFR CEILINGS INTO TOMORROW WHICH
COULD CREATE LCL IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  53  34  54 /  20  30  30  10
ALW  42  55  38  56 /  20  30  30  10
PSC  38  61  33  62 /  10  20  20  10
YKM  34  59  32  60 /  20  30  20  10
HRI  37  59  34  60 /  10  30  20  10
ELN  34  58  33  59 /  20  30  20  10
RDM  24  48  21  51 /  20  40  20  10
LGD  35  50  30  52 /  30  40  20  20
GCD  27  49  26  52 /  30  30  30  20
DLS  39  59  38  62 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ041-044-507-508-510.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ024-521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/97/97








000
FXUS66 KPDT 312129
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
229 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LATEST PACIFIC FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO IDAHO. SURFACE HEATING, COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT, HAS
RESULTED IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES, ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET. A FEW
STRAY THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNSET. WINDS HAVE LARGELY BEEN
STAYING UNDER 30 MPH SUSTAINED. WITH MIXING AND THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WILL KEEP ALL CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES GOING INTO THE
EVENING. WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL
MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 FEET OVERNIGHT, BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND LOCALIZED DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP. COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING UNDER THIS COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL
PERSIST UNTIL SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND FROM THE
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY THURSDAY. A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP AS WELL OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES FRIDAY.
90

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NE PAC WILL SPIN DISTURBANCES INTO THE PACNW THIS WEEKEND
KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL INCH CLOSER TO OR/WA ON SUNDAY AND THE PCPN CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND 3K-3500K AND SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND MONDAY AND THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER STRONGER
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE TWO STATE AREA TUESDAY THAT WILL KEEP THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...LCL MVFR CEILINGS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS THAT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE ENTIRE
AREA WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS BEFORE DECREASING
AFTER 02Z. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
AROUND 08Z WHICH COULD CREATE LCL MVFR CEILINGS INTO TOMORROW WHICH
COULD CREATE LCL IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  53  34  54 /  20  30  30  10
ALW  42  55  38  56 /  20  30  30  10
PSC  38  61  33  62 /  10  20  20  10
YKM  34  59  32  60 /  20  30  20  10
HRI  37  59  34  60 /  10  30  20  10
ELN  34  58  33  59 /  20  30  20  10
RDM  24  48  21  51 /  20  40  20  10
LGD  35  50  30  52 /  30  40  20  20
GCD  27  49  26  52 /  30  30  30  20
DLS  39  59  38  62 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ041-044-507-508-510.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ024-521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/97/97






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 312120
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
320 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A LEADING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS...WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z. IN GENERAL...WINDS BE STRONGER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NORTH...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. TOMORROW...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS AND
THE COLD CORE TROUGH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AREA...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...TAKING US BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT A WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN COOL THURSDAY
AND THE INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT TO OUR EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS NNWERLY AS ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS ONE WILL TRAVERSE DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL COVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
2/3RDS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH...RIGHT ON THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN
AREA TO COVER MOST OF OUR IDAHO ZONES FOR THU AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRY LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A DEEP COLD TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A TROUGH AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION SLOWLY...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
THIS SYSTEM/S TIMING AS MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER....ESPECIALLY IN THE LATEST MODEL RUN. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP PROGRESSIVELY FROM 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 3000-5000 FT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWERING INTO LATE
MORNING. CHANCE SHOWERS IN SE OREGON WITH AN EAST MOVING FRONT ALONG
A NE-SW LINE. EXPECTING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS E-CENTRAL
OREGON AND W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER. COULD SEE VCSH IN THE MAGIC VALLEY...BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE OF A WIND EVENT. NW 15-25KT SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40KT IN THE UPPER TREASURE TO MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTH AFTER
31/21Z... DECREASING TO 5-10KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...SW 20-30KT....BECOMING WNW 20-30KT 01/00Z...AND WNW 10-20KT
BY 01/18Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....AB/DG/WH
AVIATION.....AB/DG



000
FXUS65 KBOI 312120
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
320 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A LEADING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS...WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z. IN GENERAL...WINDS BE STRONGER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NORTH...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. TOMORROW...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS AND
THE COLD CORE TROUGH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AREA...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...TAKING US BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT A WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN COOL THURSDAY
AND THE INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT TO OUR EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS NNWERLY AS ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS ONE WILL TRAVERSE DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL COVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
2/3RDS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH...RIGHT ON THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN
AREA TO COVER MOST OF OUR IDAHO ZONES FOR THU AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRY LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A DEEP COLD TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A TROUGH AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION SLOWLY...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
THIS SYSTEM/S TIMING AS MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER....ESPECIALLY IN THE LATEST MODEL RUN. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP PROGRESSIVELY FROM 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 3000-5000 FT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWERING INTO LATE
MORNING. CHANCE SHOWERS IN SE OREGON WITH AN EAST MOVING FRONT ALONG
A NE-SW LINE. EXPECTING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS E-CENTRAL
OREGON AND W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER. COULD SEE VCSH IN THE MAGIC VALLEY...BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE OF A WIND EVENT. NW 15-25KT SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40KT IN THE UPPER TREASURE TO MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTH AFTER
31/21Z... DECREASING TO 5-10KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...SW 20-30KT....BECOMING WNW 20-30KT 01/00Z...AND WNW 10-20KT
BY 01/18Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....AB/DG/WH
AVIATION.....AB/DG



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 312032
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
133 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE
PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL WERE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FIRST COOL UPPER TROUGH IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVED ACROSS.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURE OFF THE OREGON
COAST NEARING 130W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST
ONSHORE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WAS OCCURRING WITH TODAYS
SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW TONIGHT AND WED
WILL WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW...SO SNOWFALL RATES IN THE CASCADES ARE
EXPECTED TO LESSEN. MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED LATE WED
REINFORCES THE COLD AIR ALOFT FROM TODAY. GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES...ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE WED. WILL ALSO RETAIN A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT THE TIME OF MAX INSTABILITY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP DOWN WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW DO NOT EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THU. A SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES INLAND OVER CENTRAL OR NW OREGON KEEPING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MODELS CONTINEU TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS THU DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MAINLY OVER THE NW PART OF
THE AREA.

12Z RUNS OF THE MODELS...ESP THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE TAKEN A
DECIDELY FASTER TRACK WITH THE FRONT ON FRI. GIVEN THE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MODELS...INCLUDING THE GEM AND NAM...WILL SPEED UP THE
INLAND SPREAD OF POPS FRI AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...AND DOWN TO THE
FOOTHILLS WITH SNOW LEVELS DECREASING TO AROUND 2500 FEET. MODEL
AGREEMENT SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER TODAY WITH THE POSITION OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHOWERS LOOK TO BE
INCREASINGLY COMMON IN THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME
SHADOWING IN THE VALLEY. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING AROUND
MIDWEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
WITH SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WILL SEE
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TEMPO
THESE CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING TS IN THE TAFS DUE
TO LOW PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE DEEPER CONVECTION END WITH
SUNSET BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD BUILDING LOW CLOUD DECK FROM
OFF THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES AFFECTING KTTD AND KPDX LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A REPEAT OF TODAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL
UNDER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS DEVELOP 015-020 LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS IN GENERAL
WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT THIS EVENING
AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH FALLING CLOSER TO 9 FT AT TIMES BEFORE EASING TO 8 TO 9
FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF BREAK ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT CROSSES. MAY ALSO SEE SEAS NUDGE UPWARDS OF 13 FT AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     2 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 312032
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
133 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE
PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL WERE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FIRST COOL UPPER TROUGH IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVED ACROSS.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURE OFF THE OREGON
COAST NEARING 130W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST
ONSHORE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WAS OCCURRING WITH TODAYS
SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW TONIGHT AND WED
WILL WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW...SO SNOWFALL RATES IN THE CASCADES ARE
EXPECTED TO LESSEN. MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED LATE WED
REINFORCES THE COLD AIR ALOFT FROM TODAY. GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES...ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE WED. WILL ALSO RETAIN A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT THE TIME OF MAX INSTABILITY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP DOWN WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW DO NOT EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THU. A SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES INLAND OVER CENTRAL OR NW OREGON KEEPING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MODELS CONTINEU TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS THU DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MAINLY OVER THE NW PART OF
THE AREA.

12Z RUNS OF THE MODELS...ESP THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE TAKEN A
DECIDELY FASTER TRACK WITH THE FRONT ON FRI. GIVEN THE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MODELS...INCLUDING THE GEM AND NAM...WILL SPEED UP THE
INLAND SPREAD OF POPS FRI AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...AND DOWN TO THE
FOOTHILLS WITH SNOW LEVELS DECREASING TO AROUND 2500 FEET. MODEL
AGREEMENT SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER TODAY WITH THE POSITION OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHOWERS LOOK TO BE
INCREASINGLY COMMON IN THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME
SHADOWING IN THE VALLEY. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING AROUND
MIDWEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
WITH SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WILL SEE
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TEMPO
THESE CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING TS IN THE TAFS DUE
TO LOW PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE DEEPER CONVECTION END WITH
SUNSET BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD BUILDING LOW CLOUD DECK FROM
OFF THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES AFFECTING KTTD AND KPDX LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A REPEAT OF TODAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL
UNDER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS DEVELOP 015-020 LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS IN GENERAL
WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT THIS EVENING
AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH FALLING CLOSER TO 9 FT AT TIMES BEFORE EASING TO 8 TO 9
FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF BREAK ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT CROSSES. MAY ALSO SEE SEAS NUDGE UPWARDS OF 13 FT AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     2 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 312032
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
133 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE
PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL WERE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FIRST COOL UPPER TROUGH IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVED ACROSS.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURE OFF THE OREGON
COAST NEARING 130W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST
ONSHORE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WAS OCCURRING WITH TODAYS
SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW TONIGHT AND WED
WILL WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW...SO SNOWFALL RATES IN THE CASCADES ARE
EXPECTED TO LESSEN. MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED LATE WED
REINFORCES THE COLD AIR ALOFT FROM TODAY. GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES...ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE WED. WILL ALSO RETAIN A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT THE TIME OF MAX INSTABILITY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP DOWN WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW DO NOT EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THU. A SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES INLAND OVER CENTRAL OR NW OREGON KEEPING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MODELS CONTINEU TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS THU DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MAINLY OVER THE NW PART OF
THE AREA.

12Z RUNS OF THE MODELS...ESP THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE TAKEN A
DECIDELY FASTER TRACK WITH THE FRONT ON FRI. GIVEN THE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MODELS...INCLUDING THE GEM AND NAM...WILL SPEED UP THE
INLAND SPREAD OF POPS FRI AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...AND DOWN TO THE
FOOTHILLS WITH SNOW LEVELS DECREASING TO AROUND 2500 FEET. MODEL
AGREEMENT SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER TODAY WITH THE POSITION OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHOWERS LOOK TO BE
INCREASINGLY COMMON IN THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME
SHADOWING IN THE VALLEY. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING AROUND
MIDWEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
WITH SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WILL SEE
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TEMPO
THESE CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING TS IN THE TAFS DUE
TO LOW PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE DEEPER CONVECTION END WITH
SUNSET BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD BUILDING LOW CLOUD DECK FROM
OFF THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES AFFECTING KTTD AND KPDX LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A REPEAT OF TODAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL
UNDER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS DEVELOP 015-020 LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS IN GENERAL
WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT THIS EVENING
AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH FALLING CLOSER TO 9 FT AT TIMES BEFORE EASING TO 8 TO 9
FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF BREAK ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT CROSSES. MAY ALSO SEE SEAS NUDGE UPWARDS OF 13 FT AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     2 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 312032
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
133 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE
PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL WERE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FIRST COOL UPPER TROUGH IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVED ACROSS.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURE OFF THE OREGON
COAST NEARING 130W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST
ONSHORE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WAS OCCURRING WITH TODAYS
SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW TONIGHT AND WED
WILL WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW...SO SNOWFALL RATES IN THE CASCADES ARE
EXPECTED TO LESSEN. MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED LATE WED
REINFORCES THE COLD AIR ALOFT FROM TODAY. GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES...ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE WED. WILL ALSO RETAIN A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT THE TIME OF MAX INSTABILITY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP DOWN WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW DO NOT EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THU. A SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES INLAND OVER CENTRAL OR NW OREGON KEEPING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MODELS CONTINEU TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS THU DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MAINLY OVER THE NW PART OF
THE AREA.

12Z RUNS OF THE MODELS...ESP THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE TAKEN A
DECIDELY FASTER TRACK WITH THE FRONT ON FRI. GIVEN THE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MODELS...INCLUDING THE GEM AND NAM...WILL SPEED UP THE
INLAND SPREAD OF POPS FRI AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...AND DOWN TO THE
FOOTHILLS WITH SNOW LEVELS DECREASING TO AROUND 2500 FEET. MODEL
AGREEMENT SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER TODAY WITH THE POSITION OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHOWERS LOOK TO BE
INCREASINGLY COMMON IN THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME
SHADOWING IN THE VALLEY. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING AROUND
MIDWEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
WITH SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WILL SEE
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TEMPO
THESE CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING TS IN THE TAFS DUE
TO LOW PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE DEEPER CONVECTION END WITH
SUNSET BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD BUILDING LOW CLOUD DECK FROM
OFF THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES AFFECTING KTTD AND KPDX LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A REPEAT OF TODAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL
UNDER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS DEVELOP 015-020 LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS IN GENERAL
WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT THIS EVENING
AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH FALLING CLOSER TO 9 FT AT TIMES BEFORE EASING TO 8 TO 9
FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF BREAK ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT CROSSES. MAY ALSO SEE SEAS NUDGE UPWARDS OF 13 FT AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     2 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 311759 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1055 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
EXTREME EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
SHOULD BE THROUGH EASTERN OREGON BY NOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN JUMPING UP
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, THEN LIGHTENING. EXPECT GRADIENTS TO CONTINUE
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. HAVE
ALSO ADDED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE GORGE, THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, THE
OREGON LOWER BASIN AND THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO STRAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. UPDATES THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON
WINDS FOR THE ADDED ADVISORIES, AND ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOWER COVERAGES
AND LOCATIONS OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT UPSLOPE SHOWERS
COULD STILL DEVELOP. FLOW WILL SHIFT WESTERLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN
INCREASE IN POPS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES DOWN FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF STILL HAS THE LOW JUST OFF THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND BETTER
CHANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON. BUT GFS STILL HAS THE
LOW CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE...AND
QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING.
OVERALL THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL SEEM OR EVEN FEEL LIKE WE ARE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WHICH MAY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SO WHILE THIS IS A CONTINUED COOL AND
UNSETTLED TREND FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING...WE WILL STILL BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...LCL MVFR CEILINGS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES KPDT...KALW UNTIL AROUND 20Z WHEN A RETURN
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT OCCASIONALLY LCL
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS BEFORE DECREASING AFTER 02Z.
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 08Z
WHICH COULD CREATE LCL MVFR CEILINGS INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  33  53  35 /  50  20  30  30
ALW  57  38  55  39 /  50  20  30  30
PSC  62  36  60  34 /  20  10  30  20
YKM  59  32  57  33 /  20  10  30  20
HRI  61  35  58  34 /  30  10  30  20
ELN  55  31  53  34 /  20  10  30  20
RDM  50  22  48  24 /  20  20  40  20
LGD  52  32  49  30 /  50  20  40  20
GCD  50  27  48  29 /  50  20  30  20
DLS  60  37  57  38 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ041-044-507-508-510.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ024-521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/97







000
FXUS66 KPDT 311759 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1055 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
EXTREME EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
SHOULD BE THROUGH EASTERN OREGON BY NOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN JUMPING UP
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, THEN LIGHTENING. EXPECT GRADIENTS TO CONTINUE
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. HAVE
ALSO ADDED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE GORGE, THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, THE
OREGON LOWER BASIN AND THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO STRAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. UPDATES THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON
WINDS FOR THE ADDED ADVISORIES, AND ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOWER COVERAGES
AND LOCATIONS OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT UPSLOPE SHOWERS
COULD STILL DEVELOP. FLOW WILL SHIFT WESTERLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN
INCREASE IN POPS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES DOWN FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF STILL HAS THE LOW JUST OFF THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND BETTER
CHANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON. BUT GFS STILL HAS THE
LOW CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE...AND
QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING.
OVERALL THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL SEEM OR EVEN FEEL LIKE WE ARE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WHICH MAY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SO WHILE THIS IS A CONTINUED COOL AND
UNSETTLED TREND FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING...WE WILL STILL BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...LCL MVFR CEILINGS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES KPDT...KALW UNTIL AROUND 20Z WHEN A RETURN
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT OCCASIONALLY LCL
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS BEFORE DECREASING AFTER 02Z.
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 08Z
WHICH COULD CREATE LCL MVFR CEILINGS INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  33  53  35 /  50  20  30  30
ALW  57  38  55  39 /  50  20  30  30
PSC  62  36  60  34 /  20  10  30  20
YKM  59  32  57  33 /  20  10  30  20
HRI  61  35  58  34 /  30  10  30  20
ELN  55  31  53  34 /  20  10  30  20
RDM  50  22  48  24 /  20  20  40  20
LGD  52  32  49  30 /  50  20  40  20
GCD  50  27  48  29 /  50  20  30  20
DLS  60  37  57  38 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ041-044-507-508-510.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ024-521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/97






000
FXUS66 KPDT 311637
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
937 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
EXTREME EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
SHOULD BE THROUGH EASTERN OREGON BY NOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN JUMPING UP
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, THEN LIGHTENING. EXPECT GRADIENTS TO CONTINUE
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. HAVE
ALSO ADDED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE GORGE, THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, THE
OREGON LOWER BASIN AND THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO STRAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. UPDATES THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON
WINDS FOR THE ADDED ADVISORIES, AND ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOWER COVERAGES
AND LOCATIONS OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT UPSLOPE SHOWERS
COULD STILL DEVELOP. FLOW WILL SHIFT WESTERLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN
INCREASE IN POPS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES DOWN FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF STILL HAS THE LOW JUST OFF THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND BETTER
CHANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON. BUT GFS STILL HAS THE
LOW CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE...AND
QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING.
OVERALL THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL SEEM OR EVEN FEEL LIKE WE ARE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WHICH MAY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SO WHILE THIS IS A CONTINUED COOL AND
UNSETTLED TREND FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING...WE WILL STILL BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK AT ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z
AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15-25KTS...GUSTING 25-35KTS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 9Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  33  53  35 /  50  20  30  30
ALW  57  38  55  39 /  50  20  30  30
PSC  62  36  60  34 /  20  10  30  20
YKM  59  32  57  33 /  20  10  30  20
HRI  61  35  58  34 /  30  10  30  20
ELN  55  31  53  34 /  20  10  30  20
RDM  50  22  48  24 /  20  20  40  20
LGD  52  32  49  30 /  50  20  40  20
GCD  50  27  48  29 /  50  20  30  20
DLS  60  37  57  38 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ041-044-507-508-510.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ024-521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/97








000
FXUS66 KPDT 311637
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
937 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
EXTREME EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
SHOULD BE THROUGH EASTERN OREGON BY NOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN JUMPING UP
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, THEN LIGHTENING. EXPECT GRADIENTS TO CONTINUE
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. HAVE
ALSO ADDED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE GORGE, THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, THE
OREGON LOWER BASIN AND THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO STRAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. UPDATES THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON
WINDS FOR THE ADDED ADVISORIES, AND ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOWER COVERAGES
AND LOCATIONS OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT UPSLOPE SHOWERS
COULD STILL DEVELOP. FLOW WILL SHIFT WESTERLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN
INCREASE IN POPS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES DOWN FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF STILL HAS THE LOW JUST OFF THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND BETTER
CHANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON. BUT GFS STILL HAS THE
LOW CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE...AND
QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING.
OVERALL THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL SEEM OR EVEN FEEL LIKE WE ARE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WHICH MAY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SO WHILE THIS IS A CONTINUED COOL AND
UNSETTLED TREND FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING...WE WILL STILL BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK AT ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z
AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15-25KTS...GUSTING 25-35KTS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 9Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  33  53  35 /  50  20  30  30
ALW  57  38  55  39 /  50  20  30  30
PSC  62  36  60  34 /  20  10  30  20
YKM  59  32  57  33 /  20  10  30  20
HRI  61  35  58  34 /  30  10  30  20
ELN  55  31  53  34 /  20  10  30  20
RDM  50  22  48  24 /  20  20  40  20
LGD  52  32  49  30 /  50  20  40  20
GCD  50  27  48  29 /  50  20  30  20
DLS  60  37  57  38 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ041-044-507-508-510.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ024-521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/97








000
FXUS66 KPDT 311637
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
937 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
EXTREME EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
SHOULD BE THROUGH EASTERN OREGON BY NOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN JUMPING UP
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, THEN LIGHTENING. EXPECT GRADIENTS TO CONTINUE
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. HAVE
ALSO ADDED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE GORGE, THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, THE
OREGON LOWER BASIN AND THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO STRAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. UPDATES THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON
WINDS FOR THE ADDED ADVISORIES, AND ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOWER COVERAGES
AND LOCATIONS OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT UPSLOPE SHOWERS
COULD STILL DEVELOP. FLOW WILL SHIFT WESTERLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN
INCREASE IN POPS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES DOWN FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF STILL HAS THE LOW JUST OFF THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND BETTER
CHANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON. BUT GFS STILL HAS THE
LOW CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE...AND
QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING.
OVERALL THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL SEEM OR EVEN FEEL LIKE WE ARE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WHICH MAY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SO WHILE THIS IS A CONTINUED COOL AND
UNSETTLED TREND FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING...WE WILL STILL BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK AT ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z
AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15-25KTS...GUSTING 25-35KTS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 9Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  33  53  35 /  50  20  30  30
ALW  57  38  55  39 /  50  20  30  30
PSC  62  36  60  34 /  20  10  30  20
YKM  59  32  57  33 /  20  10  30  20
HRI  61  35  58  34 /  30  10  30  20
ELN  55  31  53  34 /  20  10  30  20
RDM  50  22  48  24 /  20  20  40  20
LGD  52  32  49  30 /  50  20  40  20
GCD  50  27  48  29 /  50  20  30  20
DLS  60  37  57  38 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ041-044-507-508-510.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ024-521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/97








000
FXUS66 KPDT 311637
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
937 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
EXTREME EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
SHOULD BE THROUGH EASTERN OREGON BY NOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN JUMPING UP
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, THEN LIGHTENING. EXPECT GRADIENTS TO CONTINUE
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. HAVE
ALSO ADDED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE GORGE, THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, THE
OREGON LOWER BASIN AND THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO STRAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. UPDATES THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON
WINDS FOR THE ADDED ADVISORIES, AND ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOWER COVERAGES
AND LOCATIONS OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT UPSLOPE SHOWERS
COULD STILL DEVELOP. FLOW WILL SHIFT WESTERLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN
INCREASE IN POPS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES DOWN FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF STILL HAS THE LOW JUST OFF THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND BETTER
CHANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON. BUT GFS STILL HAS THE
LOW CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE...AND
QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING.
OVERALL THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL SEEM OR EVEN FEEL LIKE WE ARE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WHICH MAY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SO WHILE THIS IS A CONTINUED COOL AND
UNSETTLED TREND FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING...WE WILL STILL BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK AT ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z
AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15-25KTS...GUSTING 25-35KTS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 9Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  33  53  35 /  50  20  30  30
ALW  57  38  55  39 /  50  20  30  30
PSC  62  36  60  34 /  20  10  30  20
YKM  59  32  57  33 /  20  10  30  20
HRI  61  35  58  34 /  30  10  30  20
ELN  55  31  53  34 /  20  10  30  20
RDM  50  22  48  24 /  20  20  40  20
LGD  52  32  49  30 /  50  20  40  20
GCD  50  27  48  29 /  50  20  30  20
DLS  60  37  57  38 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ041-044-507-508-510.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ024-521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/97








000
FXUS66 KPDT 311637
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
937 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
EXTREME EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
SHOULD BE THROUGH EASTERN OREGON BY NOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN JUMPING UP
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, THEN LIGHTENING. EXPECT GRADIENTS TO CONTINUE
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. HAVE
ALSO ADDED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE GORGE, THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, THE
OREGON LOWER BASIN AND THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO STRAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. UPDATES THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON
WINDS FOR THE ADDED ADVISORIES, AND ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOWER COVERAGES
AND LOCATIONS OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT UPSLOPE SHOWERS
COULD STILL DEVELOP. FLOW WILL SHIFT WESTERLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN
INCREASE IN POPS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES DOWN FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF STILL HAS THE LOW JUST OFF THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND BETTER
CHANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON. BUT GFS STILL HAS THE
LOW CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE...AND
QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING.
OVERALL THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL SEEM OR EVEN FEEL LIKE WE ARE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WHICH MAY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SO WHILE THIS IS A CONTINUED COOL AND
UNSETTLED TREND FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING...WE WILL STILL BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK AT ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z
AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15-25KTS...GUSTING 25-35KTS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 9Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  33  53  35 /  50  20  30  30
ALW  57  38  55  39 /  50  20  30  30
PSC  62  36  60  34 /  20  10  30  20
YKM  59  32  57  33 /  20  10  30  20
HRI  61  35  58  34 /  30  10  30  20
ELN  55  31  53  34 /  20  10  30  20
RDM  50  22  48  24 /  20  20  40  20
LGD  52  32  49  30 /  50  20  40  20
GCD  50  27  48  29 /  50  20  30  20
DLS  60  37  57  38 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ041-044-507-508-510.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ024-521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/97









000
FXUS66 KPDT 311637
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
937 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
EXTREME EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
SHOULD BE THROUGH EASTERN OREGON BY NOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN JUMPING UP
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, THEN LIGHTENING. EXPECT GRADIENTS TO CONTINUE
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. HAVE
ALSO ADDED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE GORGE, THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, THE
OREGON LOWER BASIN AND THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO STRAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. UPDATES THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON
WINDS FOR THE ADDED ADVISORIES, AND ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOWER COVERAGES
AND LOCATIONS OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT UPSLOPE SHOWERS
COULD STILL DEVELOP. FLOW WILL SHIFT WESTERLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN
INCREASE IN POPS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES DOWN FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF STILL HAS THE LOW JUST OFF THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND BETTER
CHANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON. BUT GFS STILL HAS THE
LOW CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE...AND
QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING.
OVERALL THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL SEEM OR EVEN FEEL LIKE WE ARE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WHICH MAY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SO WHILE THIS IS A CONTINUED COOL AND
UNSETTLED TREND FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING...WE WILL STILL BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK AT ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z
AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15-25KTS...GUSTING 25-35KTS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 9Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  33  53  35 /  50  20  30  30
ALW  57  38  55  39 /  50  20  30  30
PSC  62  36  60  34 /  20  10  30  20
YKM  59  32  57  33 /  20  10  30  20
HRI  61  35  58  34 /  30  10  30  20
ELN  55  31  53  34 /  20  10  30  20
RDM  50  22  48  24 /  20  20  40  20
LGD  52  32  49  30 /  50  20  40  20
GCD  50  27  48  29 /  50  20  30  20
DLS  60  37  57  38 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ041-044-507-508-510.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ024-521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/97







  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 311636
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
930 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE. MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CASCADES TO THE EAST SIDE AT THIS TIME. WITH INCREASING
COLDER AIR MASS ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
500 MB TEMPS BELOW -30C BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SURFACE COOLING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE ADJUSTED THE AREA OF SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN EAST SIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST
OF OUR AREA, BUT THE REAL COLD FRONT IS JUST COMING ASHORE THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT ITSELF ISN`T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT IT WILL
BRING A MARKED COOL DOWN COMPARED TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
WE HAD YESTERDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE 15-
20 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CASCADE CREST WESTWARD THIS MORNING,
AND THEN MUCH SPOTTIER PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT JUMPS THE CASCADES
AND CROSSES THE EAST SIDE LATER THIS MORNING. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE
PART OF THE SYSTEM IS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL AND THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WHICH HAS NOW MOVED INSIDE 130W. THIS COLD POOL WITH 500
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -30C WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH, AND WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COAST,
UMPQUA, AND INTO THE CASCADES. NONE OF THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS
SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS, BUT THERE WILL
SURELY BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES ABOVE 4000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO MOUNTAIN TRAVELERS OUGHT TO BE
PREPARED FOR WINTRY CONDITIONS.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL BE A
CHILLY NIGHT OVER THE AREA AS COOL AIR POURS IN. A FREEZE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY FOR TONIGHT, AND WHILE CLOUD
COVER MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT, THE NEXT WEEK WILL
PRESENT MANY OPPORTUNITIES FOR CROP/PLANT DAMAGE AS WE ENTER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL WEATHER. LOWER WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AND THE
SHASTA VALLEY HAVE ENTERED THEIR GROWING SEASONS, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 30S OVER ALL THOSE AREAS ALMOST EVERY NIGHT
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN
WHETHER WE SEE IMPACTS FROM FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
HAVE TO TAKE THESE ONE NIGHT AT A TIME, BUT RIGHT NOW, THE COLDEST
NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND UPPER COLD POOL WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COLD POOL WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN TODAY`S, AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE DRY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER, A FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR AND
THE CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. THEN A COLD AND SHOWERY
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO PLACE TODAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH  COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN
OBSCURED. THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CONTINUING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INLAND...WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING AT KRBG AND KMFR. EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPECT VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. INLAND...CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN
SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...BECOMING PARTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO EAST OF THE CASCADES..GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO
AROUND 5000 FEET TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO FROM THE COASTAL WATERS EASTWARD TO AROUND ROSEBURG. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1030 PM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...BEHIND A FRONT
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER THE WHOLE AREA TODAY. THE
SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL WITH
THE PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 311636
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
930 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE. MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CASCADES TO THE EAST SIDE AT THIS TIME. WITH INCREASING
COLDER AIR MASS ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
500 MB TEMPS BELOW -30C BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SURFACE COOLING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE ADJUSTED THE AREA OF SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN EAST SIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST
OF OUR AREA, BUT THE REAL COLD FRONT IS JUST COMING ASHORE THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT ITSELF ISN`T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT IT WILL
BRING A MARKED COOL DOWN COMPARED TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
WE HAD YESTERDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE 15-
20 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CASCADE CREST WESTWARD THIS MORNING,
AND THEN MUCH SPOTTIER PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT JUMPS THE CASCADES
AND CROSSES THE EAST SIDE LATER THIS MORNING. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE
PART OF THE SYSTEM IS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL AND THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WHICH HAS NOW MOVED INSIDE 130W. THIS COLD POOL WITH 500
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -30C WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH, AND WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COAST,
UMPQUA, AND INTO THE CASCADES. NONE OF THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS
SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS, BUT THERE WILL
SURELY BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES ABOVE 4000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO MOUNTAIN TRAVELERS OUGHT TO BE
PREPARED FOR WINTRY CONDITIONS.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL BE A
CHILLY NIGHT OVER THE AREA AS COOL AIR POURS IN. A FREEZE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY FOR TONIGHT, AND WHILE CLOUD
COVER MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT, THE NEXT WEEK WILL
PRESENT MANY OPPORTUNITIES FOR CROP/PLANT DAMAGE AS WE ENTER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL WEATHER. LOWER WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AND THE
SHASTA VALLEY HAVE ENTERED THEIR GROWING SEASONS, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 30S OVER ALL THOSE AREAS ALMOST EVERY NIGHT
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN
WHETHER WE SEE IMPACTS FROM FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
HAVE TO TAKE THESE ONE NIGHT AT A TIME, BUT RIGHT NOW, THE COLDEST
NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND UPPER COLD POOL WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COLD POOL WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN TODAY`S, AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE DRY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER, A FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR AND
THE CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. THEN A COLD AND SHOWERY
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO PLACE TODAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH  COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN
OBSCURED. THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CONTINUING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INLAND...WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING AT KRBG AND KMFR. EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPECT VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. INLAND...CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN
SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...BECOMING PARTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO EAST OF THE CASCADES..GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO
AROUND 5000 FEET TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO FROM THE COASTAL WATERS EASTWARD TO AROUND ROSEBURG. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1030 PM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...BEHIND A FRONT
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER THE WHOLE AREA TODAY. THE
SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL WITH
THE PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS65 KBOI 311622
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1022 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...WINDY DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE REAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM LATE
MORNING IN ERN OREGON THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WHICH WILL AID
IN MIXING DOWN STRONGER WINDS. THEREFORE WE WILL LET THE WIND
ADVISORY STAND AS IS. WE SUSPECT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A
LITTLE LONGER INTO THE EVENING IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE
CWA...BUT WILL MAKE THAT DECISION BASED ON TIMING AS THE AFTERNOON
UNFOLDS. FOR NOW...WILL EXTEND THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL ALSO RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWERING INTO LATE
MORNING. CHANCE SHOWERS BEGIN BY 19Z IN SE OREGON WITH AN EAST
MOVING FRONT ALONG A NE-SW LINE. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR ACROSS
E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL ID MTNS WITH SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER. COULD SEE VCSH IN THE MAGIC VALLEY...BUT THIS WILL BE
MORE OF A WIND EVENT. NW 15-25KT SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40KT IN THE UPPER TREASURE TO MAGIC VALLEYS AND SOUTH AFTER
31/21Z...DECREASING TO 5-10KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...SW 20-30KT....BECOMING WNW 20-30KT 01/00Z...AND WNW 10-20KT
BY 01/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
THIS MORNING AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS.  FRONT LOOKS STRONGER
THAN IT DID IN YESTERDAY/S MODELS AND THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING WILL
INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT.  STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HIT LATE TODAY IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF
MOUNTAIN HOME AS MODELS SHOW TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THAT AREA AT THAT TIME.  MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN OREGON ZONES...BUT IN IDAHO THE FRONT WILL
COME LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 60S BEFORE
COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FULL COOLING WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT OUR CWA.  THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
ESPECIALLY MOIST BUT NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL
IN NRN ZONES...LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN.  AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING FORECAST.  UPPER
TROUGH WILL RE-DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  FIRST TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF IDAHO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE ELSE.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.  MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS RIDGE BUT
DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW.  FORECASTER THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT ANY
MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UNDER THIS WEAK RIDGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.  FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS LOW.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT
IS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY SO THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW DO NOT WANT TO YO-YO THE FORECAST WITH THE
CHANGING MODELS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
..IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE REGION WILL BE IN FOR A COOL-DOWN WITH
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY FALLING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 311622
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1022 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...WINDY DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE REAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM LATE
MORNING IN ERN OREGON THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WHICH WILL AID
IN MIXING DOWN STRONGER WINDS. THEREFORE WE WILL LET THE WIND
ADVISORY STAND AS IS. WE SUSPECT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A
LITTLE LONGER INTO THE EVENING IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE
CWA...BUT WILL MAKE THAT DECISION BASED ON TIMING AS THE AFTERNOON
UNFOLDS. FOR NOW...WILL EXTEND THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL ALSO RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWERING INTO LATE
MORNING. CHANCE SHOWERS BEGIN BY 19Z IN SE OREGON WITH AN EAST
MOVING FRONT ALONG A NE-SW LINE. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR ACROSS
E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL ID MTNS WITH SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER. COULD SEE VCSH IN THE MAGIC VALLEY...BUT THIS WILL BE
MORE OF A WIND EVENT. NW 15-25KT SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40KT IN THE UPPER TREASURE TO MAGIC VALLEYS AND SOUTH AFTER
31/21Z...DECREASING TO 5-10KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...SW 20-30KT....BECOMING WNW 20-30KT 01/00Z...AND WNW 10-20KT
BY 01/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
THIS MORNING AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS.  FRONT LOOKS STRONGER
THAN IT DID IN YESTERDAY/S MODELS AND THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING WILL
INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT.  STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HIT LATE TODAY IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF
MOUNTAIN HOME AS MODELS SHOW TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THAT AREA AT THAT TIME.  MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN OREGON ZONES...BUT IN IDAHO THE FRONT WILL
COME LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 60S BEFORE
COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FULL COOLING WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT OUR CWA.  THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
ESPECIALLY MOIST BUT NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL
IN NRN ZONES...LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN.  AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING FORECAST.  UPPER
TROUGH WILL RE-DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  FIRST TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF IDAHO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE ELSE.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.  MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS RIDGE BUT
DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW.  FORECASTER THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT ANY
MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UNDER THIS WEAK RIDGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.  FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS LOW.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT
IS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY SO THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW DO NOT WANT TO YO-YO THE FORECAST WITH THE
CHANGING MODELS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
..IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE REGION WILL BE IN FOR A COOL-DOWN WITH
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY FALLING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 311622
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1022 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...WINDY DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE REAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM LATE
MORNING IN ERN OREGON THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WHICH WILL AID
IN MIXING DOWN STRONGER WINDS. THEREFORE WE WILL LET THE WIND
ADVISORY STAND AS IS. WE SUSPECT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A
LITTLE LONGER INTO THE EVENING IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE
CWA...BUT WILL MAKE THAT DECISION BASED ON TIMING AS THE AFTERNOON
UNFOLDS. FOR NOW...WILL EXTEND THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL ALSO RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWERING INTO LATE
MORNING. CHANCE SHOWERS BEGIN BY 19Z IN SE OREGON WITH AN EAST
MOVING FRONT ALONG A NE-SW LINE. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR ACROSS
E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL ID MTNS WITH SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER. COULD SEE VCSH IN THE MAGIC VALLEY...BUT THIS WILL BE
MORE OF A WIND EVENT. NW 15-25KT SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40KT IN THE UPPER TREASURE TO MAGIC VALLEYS AND SOUTH AFTER
31/21Z...DECREASING TO 5-10KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...SW 20-30KT....BECOMING WNW 20-30KT 01/00Z...AND WNW 10-20KT
BY 01/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
THIS MORNING AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS.  FRONT LOOKS STRONGER
THAN IT DID IN YESTERDAY/S MODELS AND THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING WILL
INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT.  STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HIT LATE TODAY IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF
MOUNTAIN HOME AS MODELS SHOW TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THAT AREA AT THAT TIME.  MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN OREGON ZONES...BUT IN IDAHO THE FRONT WILL
COME LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 60S BEFORE
COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FULL COOLING WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT OUR CWA.  THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
ESPECIALLY MOIST BUT NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL
IN NRN ZONES...LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN.  AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING FORECAST.  UPPER
TROUGH WILL RE-DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  FIRST TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF IDAHO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE ELSE.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.  MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS RIDGE BUT
DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW.  FORECASTER THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT ANY
MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UNDER THIS WEAK RIDGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.  FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS LOW.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT
IS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY SO THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW DO NOT WANT TO YO-YO THE FORECAST WITH THE
CHANGING MODELS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
..IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE REGION WILL BE IN FOR A COOL-DOWN WITH
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY FALLING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
902 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY... BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE
TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWED MORE VIGOROUS LOOKING SHOWERS JUST REACHING THE
COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO
SHOW THAT THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING ACROSS LATER TODAY SHOULD
PROVIDE DEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME
SMALL HAIL. A MODEST WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AT H8 WILL PROVIDE SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 3K FT. WHILE
SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT DOES
NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...SHOWERS
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE
MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY
OF SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE
DECIDED THE ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT
WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 2500-3000 FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THU NIGHT
THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL.
12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER
TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW
BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND
MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT THE SAME TIME. EITHER
WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AT TIMES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TEMPO THESE
CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING TS IN THE TAFS DUE TO
LOW PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL
UNDER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS IN GENERAL
WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TODAY ALTHOUGH
FALLING CLOSER TO 9 FT AT TIMES BEFORE EASING TO 8 TO 9 FT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF BREAK ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT CROSSES. MAY ALSO SEE SEAS NUDGE UPWARDS OF 13 FT AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 311602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
902 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY... BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE
TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWED MORE VIGOROUS LOOKING SHOWERS JUST REACHING THE
COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO
SHOW THAT THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING ACROSS LATER TODAY SHOULD
PROVIDE DEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME
SMALL HAIL. A MODEST WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AT H8 WILL PROVIDE SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 3K FT. WHILE
SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT DOES
NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...SHOWERS
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE
MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY
OF SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE
DECIDED THE ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT
WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 2500-3000 FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THU NIGHT
THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL.
12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER
TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW
BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND
MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT THE SAME TIME. EITHER
WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AT TIMES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TEMPO THESE
CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING TS IN THE TAFS DUE TO
LOW PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL
UNDER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS IN GENERAL
WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TODAY ALTHOUGH
FALLING CLOSER TO 9 FT AT TIMES BEFORE EASING TO 8 TO 9 FT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF BREAK ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT CROSSES. MAY ALSO SEE SEAS NUDGE UPWARDS OF 13 FT AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
902 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY... BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE
TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWED MORE VIGOROUS LOOKING SHOWERS JUST REACHING THE
COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO
SHOW THAT THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING ACROSS LATER TODAY SHOULD
PROVIDE DEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME
SMALL HAIL. A MODEST WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AT H8 WILL PROVIDE SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 3K FT. WHILE
SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT DOES
NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...SHOWERS
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE
MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY
OF SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE
DECIDED THE ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT
WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 2500-3000 FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THU NIGHT
THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL.
12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER
TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW
BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND
MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT THE SAME TIME. EITHER
WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AT TIMES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TEMPO THESE
CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING TS IN THE TAFS DUE TO
LOW PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL
UNDER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS IN GENERAL
WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TODAY ALTHOUGH
FALLING CLOSER TO 9 FT AT TIMES BEFORE EASING TO 8 TO 9 FT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF BREAK ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT CROSSES. MAY ALSO SEE SEAS NUDGE UPWARDS OF 13 FT AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
902 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY... BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE
TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWED MORE VIGOROUS LOOKING SHOWERS JUST REACHING THE
COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO
SHOW THAT THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING ACROSS LATER TODAY SHOULD
PROVIDE DEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME
SMALL HAIL. A MODEST WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AT H8 WILL PROVIDE SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 3K FT. WHILE
SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT DOES
NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...SHOWERS
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE
MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY
OF SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE
DECIDED THE ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT
WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 2500-3000 FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THU NIGHT
THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL.
12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER
TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW
BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND
MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT THE SAME TIME. EITHER
WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WILL SEE MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AT TIMES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TEMPO THESE
CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING TS IN THE TAFS DUE TO
LOW PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL
UNDER SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS IN GENERAL
WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TODAY ALTHOUGH
FALLING CLOSER TO 9 FT AT TIMES BEFORE EASING TO 8 TO 9 FT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF BREAK ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT CROSSES. MAY ALSO SEE SEAS NUDGE UPWARDS OF 13 FT AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 311115 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
415 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WINDS FROM THE WEST. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EASTWARD TO THE CASCADE CREST AND WILL SOON
SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS WITH AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TODAY AS WELL AS FALLING SNOW LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY. AS SUCH A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY TODAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 2500-3000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL
THEN REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL TEND TO
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND THEREFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE COULD BE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
AMOUNTS. A COOL AND UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
BLUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS
WILL COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY FROM MONDAY WITH HIGHS TODAY...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING ONLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE
TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT UPSLOPE
SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP.  FLOW WILL SHIFT WESTERLY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THIS LOW COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ECMWF STILL HAS THE LOW
JUST OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE
INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON.
BUT GFS STILL HAS THE LOW CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MORE OF
A SHORTWAVE...AND QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.  OVERALL THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL SEEM OR EVEN FEEL LIKE WE ARE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.  THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WHICH
MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  SO WHILE THIS IS A CONTINUED
COOL AND UNSETTLED TREND FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING...WE WILL
STILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PICK AT ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
15-25KTS...GUSTING 25-35KTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 9Z TONIGHT.
WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  33  53  35 /  50  20  30  30
ALW  57  38  55  39 /  40  20  30  30
PSC  62  36  60  34 /  30  10  30  20
YKM  59  32  57  33 /  20  10  30  20
HRI  61  35  58  34 /  30  10  30  20
ELN  55  31  53  34 /  20  10  30  20
RDM  50  22  48  24 /  40  20  40  20
LGD  52  32  49  30 /  60  20  40  20
GCD  49  27  48  29 /  50  20  30  20
DLS  59  37  57  38 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/89







000
FXUS66 KPDT 311115 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
415 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WINDS FROM THE WEST. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EASTWARD TO THE CASCADE CREST AND WILL SOON
SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS WITH AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TODAY AS WELL AS FALLING SNOW LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY. AS SUCH A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY TODAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 2500-3000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL
THEN REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL TEND TO
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND THEREFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE COULD BE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
AMOUNTS. A COOL AND UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
BLUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS
WILL COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY FROM MONDAY WITH HIGHS TODAY...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING ONLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE
TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT UPSLOPE
SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP.  FLOW WILL SHIFT WESTERLY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THIS LOW COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ECMWF STILL HAS THE LOW
JUST OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE
INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON.
BUT GFS STILL HAS THE LOW CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MORE OF
A SHORTWAVE...AND QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.  OVERALL THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL SEEM OR EVEN FEEL LIKE WE ARE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.  THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WHICH
MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  SO WHILE THIS IS A CONTINUED
COOL AND UNSETTLED TREND FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING...WE WILL
STILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PICK AT ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
15-25KTS...GUSTING 25-35KTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 9Z TONIGHT.
WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  33  53  35 /  50  20  30  30
ALW  57  38  55  39 /  40  20  30  30
PSC  62  36  60  34 /  30  10  30  20
YKM  59  32  57  33 /  20  10  30  20
HRI  61  35  58  34 /  30  10  30  20
ELN  55  31  53  34 /  20  10  30  20
RDM  50  22  48  24 /  40  20  40  20
LGD  52  32  49  30 /  60  20  40  20
GCD  49  27  48  29 /  50  20  30  20
DLS  59  37  57  38 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/89






000
FXUS66 KPDT 311115 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
415 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WINDS FROM THE WEST. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EASTWARD TO THE CASCADE CREST AND WILL SOON
SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS WITH AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TODAY AS WELL AS FALLING SNOW LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY. AS SUCH A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY TODAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 2500-3000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL
THEN REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL TEND TO
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND THEREFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE COULD BE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
AMOUNTS. A COOL AND UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
BLUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS
WILL COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY FROM MONDAY WITH HIGHS TODAY...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING ONLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE
TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT UPSLOPE
SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP.  FLOW WILL SHIFT WESTERLY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THIS LOW COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ECMWF STILL HAS THE LOW
JUST OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE
INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON.
BUT GFS STILL HAS THE LOW CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MORE OF
A SHORTWAVE...AND QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.  OVERALL THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL SEEM OR EVEN FEEL LIKE WE ARE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.  THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WHICH
MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  SO WHILE THIS IS A CONTINUED
COOL AND UNSETTLED TREND FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING...WE WILL
STILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PICK AT ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
15-25KTS...GUSTING 25-35KTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 9Z TONIGHT.
WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  33  53  35 /  50  20  30  30
ALW  57  38  55  39 /  40  20  30  30
PSC  62  36  60  34 /  30  10  30  20
YKM  59  32  57  33 /  20  10  30  20
HRI  61  35  58  34 /  30  10  30  20
ELN  55  31  53  34 /  20  10  30  20
RDM  50  22  48  24 /  40  20  40  20
LGD  52  32  49  30 /  60  20  40  20
GCD  49  27  48  29 /  50  20  30  20
DLS  59  37  57  38 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/89







000
FXUS66 KPDT 311115 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
415 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WINDS FROM THE WEST. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EASTWARD TO THE CASCADE CREST AND WILL SOON
SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS WITH AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TODAY AS WELL AS FALLING SNOW LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY. AS SUCH A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY TODAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 2500-3000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL
THEN REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL TEND TO
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND THEREFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE COULD BE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
AMOUNTS. A COOL AND UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
BLUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS
WILL COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY FROM MONDAY WITH HIGHS TODAY...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING ONLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE
TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT UPSLOPE
SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP.  FLOW WILL SHIFT WESTERLY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THIS LOW COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ECMWF STILL HAS THE LOW
JUST OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE
INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON.
BUT GFS STILL HAS THE LOW CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MORE OF
A SHORTWAVE...AND QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.  OVERALL THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL SEEM OR EVEN FEEL LIKE WE ARE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.  THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WHICH
MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  SO WHILE THIS IS A CONTINUED
COOL AND UNSETTLED TREND FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING...WE WILL
STILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PICK AT ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
15-25KTS...GUSTING 25-35KTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 9Z TONIGHT.
WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  33  53  35 /  50  20  30  30
ALW  57  38  55  39 /  40  20  30  30
PSC  62  36  60  34 /  30  10  30  20
YKM  59  32  57  33 /  20  10  30  20
HRI  61  35  58  34 /  30  10  30  20
ELN  55  31  53  34 /  20  10  30  20
RDM  50  22  48  24 /  40  20  40  20
LGD  52  32  49  30 /  60  20  40  20
GCD  49  27  48  29 /  50  20  30  20
DLS  59  37  57  38 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/89






000
FXUS66 KPQR 311026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL
AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...
BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST SATELLITE AND NWS
DOPPLER RADAR SHOW A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER INCH IN THE COAST RANGE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS PUSHING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS ARE STARTING WELL ABOVE PASS LEVEL BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES AND AS LOW AS 2500-3000
FT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AIDING IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP IN THE
CASCADES. AS A RESULT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY AT PASS
LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT DOES NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION
RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY...WITH 500 MB
TEMPS COOLING TO -32 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON PER THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
THIS WILL PROMOTE RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 15-20 KFT...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NEAR THE SURFACE. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND
50 DEG F TODAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BE ACHIEVED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
SUNBREAKS. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS COULD SEE 500 TO 700 J/KG
OF CAPE AT TIMES...WHICH IS NOT BAD FOR OUR AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS...OR
AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL. 03Z SPC SREF 12HR
CALIBRATED TSTM PROBABILITY SHOWS UPWARDS OF A 40-50 PCT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ACROSS NW OREGON. WITH FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE
LACK OF MUCH OF A SFC LOW MOVING ONSHORE...SIGNIFICANT ROTATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN CELLS. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME
TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN LINES ORIENTED WSW-ENE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HIGHLY LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL CERTAINLY BE
A DAY TO WATCH THE RADAR CLOSELY.

SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE MAY
BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY OF
SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE DECIDED THE
ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2500-3000
FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MAY STILL BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN BEFORE 12Z WITH ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAIN. AFTER THAT...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15Z
TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED SOME SHRA WITH GS BUT EXACT
TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED WILL NOT BE
KNOWN UNTIL SHOWERS ACTUALLY FORM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR TSTORMS. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE TURNED WESTERLY AND SUBSIDED TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BUT
THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. EXPECT
SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THEY COULD DROP SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
FURTHER. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS
INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY BRING A
BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 311026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL
AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...
BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST SATELLITE AND NWS
DOPPLER RADAR SHOW A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER INCH IN THE COAST RANGE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS PUSHING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS ARE STARTING WELL ABOVE PASS LEVEL BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES AND AS LOW AS 2500-3000
FT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AIDING IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP IN THE
CASCADES. AS A RESULT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY AT PASS
LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT DOES NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION
RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY...WITH 500 MB
TEMPS COOLING TO -32 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON PER THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
THIS WILL PROMOTE RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 15-20 KFT...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NEAR THE SURFACE. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND
50 DEG F TODAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BE ACHIEVED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
SUNBREAKS. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS COULD SEE 500 TO 700 J/KG
OF CAPE AT TIMES...WHICH IS NOT BAD FOR OUR AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS...OR
AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL. 03Z SPC SREF 12HR
CALIBRATED TSTM PROBABILITY SHOWS UPWARDS OF A 40-50 PCT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ACROSS NW OREGON. WITH FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE
LACK OF MUCH OF A SFC LOW MOVING ONSHORE...SIGNIFICANT ROTATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN CELLS. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME
TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN LINES ORIENTED WSW-ENE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HIGHLY LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL CERTAINLY BE
A DAY TO WATCH THE RADAR CLOSELY.

SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE MAY
BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY OF
SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE DECIDED THE
ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2500-3000
FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MAY STILL BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN BEFORE 12Z WITH ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAIN. AFTER THAT...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15Z
TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED SOME SHRA WITH GS BUT EXACT
TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED WILL NOT BE
KNOWN UNTIL SHOWERS ACTUALLY FORM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR TSTORMS. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE TURNED WESTERLY AND SUBSIDED TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BUT
THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. EXPECT
SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THEY COULD DROP SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
FURTHER. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS
INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY BRING A
BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 311026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL
AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...
BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST SATELLITE AND NWS
DOPPLER RADAR SHOW A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER INCH IN THE COAST RANGE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS PUSHING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS ARE STARTING WELL ABOVE PASS LEVEL BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES AND AS LOW AS 2500-3000
FT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AIDING IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP IN THE
CASCADES. AS A RESULT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY AT PASS
LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT DOES NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION
RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY...WITH 500 MB
TEMPS COOLING TO -32 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON PER THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
THIS WILL PROMOTE RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 15-20 KFT...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NEAR THE SURFACE. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND
50 DEG F TODAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BE ACHIEVED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
SUNBREAKS. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS COULD SEE 500 TO 700 J/KG
OF CAPE AT TIMES...WHICH IS NOT BAD FOR OUR AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS...OR
AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL. 03Z SPC SREF 12HR
CALIBRATED TSTM PROBABILITY SHOWS UPWARDS OF A 40-50 PCT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ACROSS NW OREGON. WITH FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE
LACK OF MUCH OF A SFC LOW MOVING ONSHORE...SIGNIFICANT ROTATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN CELLS. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME
TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN LINES ORIENTED WSW-ENE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HIGHLY LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL CERTAINLY BE
A DAY TO WATCH THE RADAR CLOSELY.

SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE MAY
BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY OF
SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE DECIDED THE
ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2500-3000
FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MAY STILL BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN BEFORE 12Z WITH ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAIN. AFTER THAT...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15Z
TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED SOME SHRA WITH GS BUT EXACT
TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED WILL NOT BE
KNOWN UNTIL SHOWERS ACTUALLY FORM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR TSTORMS. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE TURNED WESTERLY AND SUBSIDED TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BUT
THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. EXPECT
SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THEY COULD DROP SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
FURTHER. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS
INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY BRING A
BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 311026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL
AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...
BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST SATELLITE AND NWS
DOPPLER RADAR SHOW A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER INCH IN THE COAST RANGE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS PUSHING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS ARE STARTING WELL ABOVE PASS LEVEL BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES AND AS LOW AS 2500-3000
FT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AIDING IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP IN THE
CASCADES. AS A RESULT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY AT PASS
LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT DOES NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION
RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY...WITH 500 MB
TEMPS COOLING TO -32 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON PER THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
THIS WILL PROMOTE RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 15-20 KFT...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NEAR THE SURFACE. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND
50 DEG F TODAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BE ACHIEVED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
SUNBREAKS. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS COULD SEE 500 TO 700 J/KG
OF CAPE AT TIMES...WHICH IS NOT BAD FOR OUR AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS...OR
AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL. 03Z SPC SREF 12HR
CALIBRATED TSTM PROBABILITY SHOWS UPWARDS OF A 40-50 PCT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ACROSS NW OREGON. WITH FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE
LACK OF MUCH OF A SFC LOW MOVING ONSHORE...SIGNIFICANT ROTATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN CELLS. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME
TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN LINES ORIENTED WSW-ENE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HIGHLY LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL CERTAINLY BE
A DAY TO WATCH THE RADAR CLOSELY.

SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE MAY
BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY OF
SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE DECIDED THE
ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2500-3000
FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MAY STILL BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN BEFORE 12Z WITH ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAIN. AFTER THAT...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15Z
TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED SOME SHRA WITH GS BUT EXACT
TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED WILL NOT BE
KNOWN UNTIL SHOWERS ACTUALLY FORM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR TSTORMS. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE TURNED WESTERLY AND SUBSIDED TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BUT
THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. EXPECT
SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THEY COULD DROP SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
FURTHER. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS
INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY BRING A
BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 311026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL
AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...
BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST SATELLITE AND NWS
DOPPLER RADAR SHOW A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER INCH IN THE COAST RANGE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS PUSHING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS ARE STARTING WELL ABOVE PASS LEVEL BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES AND AS LOW AS 2500-3000
FT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AIDING IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP IN THE
CASCADES. AS A RESULT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY AT PASS
LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT DOES NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION
RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY...WITH 500 MB
TEMPS COOLING TO -32 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON PER THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
THIS WILL PROMOTE RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 15-20 KFT...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NEAR THE SURFACE. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND
50 DEG F TODAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BE ACHIEVED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
SUNBREAKS. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS COULD SEE 500 TO 700 J/KG
OF CAPE AT TIMES...WHICH IS NOT BAD FOR OUR AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS...OR
AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL. 03Z SPC SREF 12HR
CALIBRATED TSTM PROBABILITY SHOWS UPWARDS OF A 40-50 PCT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ACROSS NW OREGON. WITH FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE
LACK OF MUCH OF A SFC LOW MOVING ONSHORE...SIGNIFICANT ROTATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN CELLS. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME
TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN LINES ORIENTED WSW-ENE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HIGHLY LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL CERTAINLY BE
A DAY TO WATCH THE RADAR CLOSELY.

SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE MAY
BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY OF
SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE DECIDED THE
ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2500-3000
FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MAY STILL BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN BEFORE 12Z WITH ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAIN. AFTER THAT...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15Z
TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED SOME SHRA WITH GS BUT EXACT
TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED WILL NOT BE
KNOWN UNTIL SHOWERS ACTUALLY FORM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR TSTORMS. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE TURNED WESTERLY AND SUBSIDED TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BUT
THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. EXPECT
SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THEY COULD DROP SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
FURTHER. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS
INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY BRING A
BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 311026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
IS UNDERWAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL
AND THUNDER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...
BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST SATELLITE AND NWS
DOPPLER RADAR SHOW A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER INCH IN THE COAST RANGE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON INTO
THE CASCADES THIS MORNING...WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS PUSHING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS ARE STARTING WELL ABOVE PASS LEVEL BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES AND AS LOW AS 2500-3000
FT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AIDING IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIP IN THE
CASCADES. AS A RESULT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE LIKELY AT PASS
LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT DOES NOT APPEAR ACCUMULATION
RATES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY...WITH 500 MB
TEMPS COOLING TO -32 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON PER THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
THIS WILL PROMOTE RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 15-20 KFT...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NEAR THE SURFACE. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND
50 DEG F TODAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BE ACHIEVED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
SUNBREAKS. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS COULD SEE 500 TO 700 J/KG
OF CAPE AT TIMES...WHICH IS NOT BAD FOR OUR AREA. THIS INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS...OR
AT LEAST SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL. 03Z SPC SREF 12HR
CALIBRATED TSTM PROBABILITY SHOWS UPWARDS OF A 40-50 PCT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ACROSS NW OREGON. WITH FLOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE
LACK OF MUCH OF A SFC LOW MOVING ONSHORE...SIGNIFICANT ROTATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN CELLS. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME
TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN LINES ORIENTED WSW-ENE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HIGHLY LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL CERTAINLY BE
A DAY TO WATCH THE RADAR CLOSELY.

SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT. THE DIFFERENCE MAY
BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...AND LESS IN THE WAY OF
SUNBREAKS TO PROMOTE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. STILL...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 50 DEG F AND LITTLE TO NO CIN WE DECIDED THE
ENVIRONMENT WAS RIPE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2500-3000
FT RANGE...WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

INSTABILITY SHOULD COLLAPSE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO CUT OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
MOST BY MIDNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY
DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS TO
DEVELOP. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN NEAR 0 DEG C...TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. WED NIGHT AND
THU NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...WITH MOST LOWLANDS GETTING INTO THE 30S.
WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MAY STILL BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN BEFORE 12Z WITH ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAIN. AFTER THAT...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR
AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15Z
TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADDED SOME SHRA WITH GS BUT EXACT
TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED WILL NOT BE
KNOWN UNTIL SHOWERS ACTUALLY FORM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR TSTORMS. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE TURNED WESTERLY AND SUBSIDED TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BUT
THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. EXPECT
SEAS TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THEY COULD DROP SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
FURTHER. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS
INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY BRING A
BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT. BOWEN/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
     PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 310930
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WINDS FROM THE WEST. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EASTWARD TO THE CASCADE CREST AND WILL SOON
SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS WITH AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TODAY AS WELL AS FALLING SNOW LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY. AS SUCH A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY TODAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 2500-3000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL
THEN REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL TEND TO
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND THEREFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE COULD BE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
AMOUNTS. A COOL AND UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
BLUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS
WILL COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY FROM MONDAY WITH HIGHS TODAY...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING ONLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE
TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT UPSLOPE
SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP.  FLOW WILL SHIFT WESTERLY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THIS LOW COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ECMWF STILL HAS THE LOW
JUST OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE
INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON.
BUT GFS STILL HAS THE LOW CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MORE OF
A SHORTWAVE...AND QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.  OVERALL THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL SEEM OR EVEN FEEL LIKE WE ARE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.  THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WHICH
MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  SO WHILE THIS IS A CONTINUED
COOL AND UNSETTLED TREND FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING...WE WILL
STILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...SOME CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD OCCUR CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES
KPDT AND KALW BETWEEN 08Z TO 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  33  53  35 /  50  20  30  30
ALW  57  38  55  39 /  40  20  30  30
PSC  62  36  60  34 /  30  10  30  20
YKM  59  32  57  33 /  20  10  30  20
HRI  61  35  58  34 /  30  10  30  20
ELN  55  31  53  34 /  20  10  30  20
RDM  50  22  48  24 /  40  20  40  20
LGD  52  32  49  30 /  60  20  40  20
GCD  49  27  48  29 /  50  20  30  20
DLS  59  37  57  38 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/89





000
FXUS66 KPDT 310930
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WINDS FROM THE WEST. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EASTWARD TO THE CASCADE CREST AND WILL SOON
SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS WITH AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TODAY AS WELL AS FALLING SNOW LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY. AS SUCH A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
KITTITAS VALLEY TODAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 2500-3000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL
THEN REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL TEND TO
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND THEREFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE COULD BE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
AMOUNTS. A COOL AND UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
BLUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS
WILL COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY FROM MONDAY WITH HIGHS TODAY...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING ONLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE
TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT UPSLOPE
SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP.  FLOW WILL SHIFT WESTERLY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THIS LOW COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ECMWF STILL HAS THE LOW
JUST OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE
INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON.
BUT GFS STILL HAS THE LOW CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MORE OF
A SHORTWAVE...AND QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING.  OVERALL THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL SEEM OR EVEN FEEL LIKE WE ARE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.  THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WHICH
MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  SO WHILE THIS IS A CONTINUED
COOL AND UNSETTLED TREND FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING...WE WILL
STILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...SOME CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD OCCUR CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES
KPDT AND KALW BETWEEN 08Z TO 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  33  53  35 /  50  20  30  30
ALW  57  38  55  39 /  40  20  30  30
PSC  62  36  60  34 /  30  10  30  20
YKM  59  32  57  33 /  20  10  30  20
HRI  61  35  58  34 /  30  10  30  20
ELN  55  31  53  34 /  20  10  30  20
RDM  50  22  48  24 /  40  20  40  20
LGD  52  32  49  30 /  60  20  40  20
GCD  49  27  48  29 /  50  20  30  20
DLS  59  37  57  38 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/89






000
FXUS66 KMFR 310918
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
218 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR
AREA, BUT THE REAL COLD FRONT IS JUST COMING ASHORE THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT ITSELF ISN`T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT IT WILL BRING A
MARKED COOL DOWN COMPARED TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WE HAD
YESTERDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE 15-
20 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CASCADE CREST WESTWARD THIS MORNING,
AND THEN MUCH SPOTTIER PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT JUMPS THE CASCADES
AND CROSSES THE EAST SIDE LATER THIS MORNING. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE
PART OF THE SYSTEM IS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL AND THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WHICH HAS NOW MOVED INSIDE 130W. THIS COLD POOL WITH 500
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -30C WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH, AND WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COAST,
UMPQUA, AND INTO THE CASCADES. NONE OF THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS
SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS, BUT THERE WILL
SURELY BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES ABOVE 4000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO MOUNTAIN TRAVELERS OUGHT TO BE
PREPARED FOR WINTRY CONDITIONS.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL BE A
CHILLY NIGHT OVER THE AREA AS COOL AIR POURS IN. A FREEZE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY FOR TONIGHT, AND WHILE CLOUD
COVER MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT, THE NEXT WEEK WILL
PRESENT MANY OPPORTUNITIES FOR CROP/PLANT DAMAGE AS WE ENTER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL WEATHER. LOWER WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AND THE
SHASTA VALLEY HAVE ENTERED THEIR GROWING SEASONS, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 30S OVER ALL THOSE AREAS ALMOST EVERY NIGHT
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN
WHETHER WE SEE IMPACTS FROM FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
HAVE TO TAKE THESE ONE NIGHT AT A TIME, BUT RIGHT NOW, THE COLDEST
NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND UPPER COLD POOL WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COLD POOL WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN TODAY`S, AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE DRY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER, A FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR AND
THE CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. THEN A COLD AND SHOWERY
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO PLACE TODAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH  COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN
OBSCURED. THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CONTINUING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INLAND...WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING AT KRBG AND KMFR. EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND IN NORTHERN CALFIORNIA EXPECT VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. INLAND...CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN
SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...BECOMING PARTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO EAST OF THE CASCADES..GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO
AROUND 5000 FEET TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO FROM THE COASTAL WATERS EASTWARD TO AROUND ROSEBURG. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1030 PM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...BEHIND A FRONT
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER THE WHOLE AREA TODAY. THE
SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL WITH
THE PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310918
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
218 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR
AREA, BUT THE REAL COLD FRONT IS JUST COMING ASHORE THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT ITSELF ISN`T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT IT WILL BRING A
MARKED COOL DOWN COMPARED TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WE HAD
YESTERDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE 15-
20 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CASCADE CREST WESTWARD THIS MORNING,
AND THEN MUCH SPOTTIER PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT JUMPS THE CASCADES
AND CROSSES THE EAST SIDE LATER THIS MORNING. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE
PART OF THE SYSTEM IS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL AND THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WHICH HAS NOW MOVED INSIDE 130W. THIS COLD POOL WITH 500
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -30C WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH, AND WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COAST,
UMPQUA, AND INTO THE CASCADES. NONE OF THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS
SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS, BUT THERE WILL
SURELY BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES ABOVE 4000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO MOUNTAIN TRAVELERS OUGHT TO BE
PREPARED FOR WINTRY CONDITIONS.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL BE A
CHILLY NIGHT OVER THE AREA AS COOL AIR POURS IN. A FREEZE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY FOR TONIGHT, AND WHILE CLOUD
COVER MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT, THE NEXT WEEK WILL
PRESENT MANY OPPORTUNITIES FOR CROP/PLANT DAMAGE AS WE ENTER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL WEATHER. LOWER WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AND THE
SHASTA VALLEY HAVE ENTERED THEIR GROWING SEASONS, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 30S OVER ALL THOSE AREAS ALMOST EVERY NIGHT
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN
WHETHER WE SEE IMPACTS FROM FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
HAVE TO TAKE THESE ONE NIGHT AT A TIME, BUT RIGHT NOW, THE COLDEST
NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND UPPER COLD POOL WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COLD POOL WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN TODAY`S, AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE DRY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER, A FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR AND
THE CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. THEN A COLD AND SHOWERY
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO PLACE TODAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH  COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN
OBSCURED. THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CONTINUING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INLAND...WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING AT KRBG AND KMFR. EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND IN NORTHERN CALFIORNIA EXPECT VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. INLAND...CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN
SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...BECOMING PARTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO EAST OF THE CASCADES..GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO
AROUND 5000 FEET TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO FROM THE COASTAL WATERS EASTWARD TO AROUND ROSEBURG. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1030 PM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...BEHIND A FRONT
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER THE WHOLE AREA TODAY. THE
SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL WITH
THE PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310918
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
218 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR
AREA, BUT THE REAL COLD FRONT IS JUST COMING ASHORE THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT ITSELF ISN`T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT IT WILL BRING A
MARKED COOL DOWN COMPARED TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WE HAD
YESTERDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE 15-
20 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CASCADE CREST WESTWARD THIS MORNING,
AND THEN MUCH SPOTTIER PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT JUMPS THE CASCADES
AND CROSSES THE EAST SIDE LATER THIS MORNING. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE
PART OF THE SYSTEM IS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL AND THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WHICH HAS NOW MOVED INSIDE 130W. THIS COLD POOL WITH 500
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -30C WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH, AND WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COAST,
UMPQUA, AND INTO THE CASCADES. NONE OF THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS
SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS, BUT THERE WILL
SURELY BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES ABOVE 4000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO MOUNTAIN TRAVELERS OUGHT TO BE
PREPARED FOR WINTRY CONDITIONS.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL BE A
CHILLY NIGHT OVER THE AREA AS COOL AIR POURS IN. A FREEZE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY FOR TONIGHT, AND WHILE CLOUD
COVER MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT, THE NEXT WEEK WILL
PRESENT MANY OPPORTUNITIES FOR CROP/PLANT DAMAGE AS WE ENTER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL WEATHER. LOWER WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AND THE
SHASTA VALLEY HAVE ENTERED THEIR GROWING SEASONS, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 30S OVER ALL THOSE AREAS ALMOST EVERY NIGHT
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN
WHETHER WE SEE IMPACTS FROM FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
HAVE TO TAKE THESE ONE NIGHT AT A TIME, BUT RIGHT NOW, THE COLDEST
NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND UPPER COLD POOL WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COLD POOL WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN TODAY`S, AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE DRY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER, A FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR AND
THE CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. THEN A COLD AND SHOWERY
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO PLACE TODAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH  COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN
OBSCURED. THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CONTINUING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INLAND...WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING AT KRBG AND KMFR. EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND IN NORTHERN CALFIORNIA EXPECT VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. INLAND...CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN
SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...BECOMING PARTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO EAST OF THE CASCADES..GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO
AROUND 5000 FEET TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO FROM THE COASTAL WATERS EASTWARD TO AROUND ROSEBURG. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1030 PM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...BEHIND A FRONT
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER THE WHOLE AREA TODAY. THE
SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL WITH
THE PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310918
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
218 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR
AREA, BUT THE REAL COLD FRONT IS JUST COMING ASHORE THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT ITSELF ISN`T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT IT WILL BRING A
MARKED COOL DOWN COMPARED TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WE HAD
YESTERDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE 15-
20 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CASCADE CREST WESTWARD THIS MORNING,
AND THEN MUCH SPOTTIER PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT JUMPS THE CASCADES
AND CROSSES THE EAST SIDE LATER THIS MORNING. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE
PART OF THE SYSTEM IS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL AND THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WHICH HAS NOW MOVED INSIDE 130W. THIS COLD POOL WITH 500
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -30C WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH, AND WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COAST,
UMPQUA, AND INTO THE CASCADES. NONE OF THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS
SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS, BUT THERE WILL
SURELY BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES ABOVE 4000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO MOUNTAIN TRAVELERS OUGHT TO BE
PREPARED FOR WINTRY CONDITIONS.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL BE A
CHILLY NIGHT OVER THE AREA AS COOL AIR POURS IN. A FREEZE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY FOR TONIGHT, AND WHILE CLOUD
COVER MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT, THE NEXT WEEK WILL
PRESENT MANY OPPORTUNITIES FOR CROP/PLANT DAMAGE AS WE ENTER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL WEATHER. LOWER WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AND THE
SHASTA VALLEY HAVE ENTERED THEIR GROWING SEASONS, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 30S OVER ALL THOSE AREAS ALMOST EVERY NIGHT
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN
WHETHER WE SEE IMPACTS FROM FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
HAVE TO TAKE THESE ONE NIGHT AT A TIME, BUT RIGHT NOW, THE COLDEST
NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND UPPER COLD POOL WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COLD POOL WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN TODAY`S, AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE DRY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER, A FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR AND
THE CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. THEN A COLD AND SHOWERY
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO PLACE TODAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH  COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN
OBSCURED. THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CONTINUING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INLAND...WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING AT KRBG AND KMFR. EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND IN NORTHERN CALFIORNIA EXPECT VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. INLAND...CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN
SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...BECOMING PARTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO EAST OF THE CASCADES..GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO
AROUND 5000 FEET TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO FROM THE COASTAL WATERS EASTWARD TO AROUND ROSEBURG. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1030 PM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...BEHIND A FRONT
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER THE WHOLE AREA TODAY. THE
SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL WITH
THE PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310918
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
218 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR
AREA, BUT THE REAL COLD FRONT IS JUST COMING ASHORE THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT ITSELF ISN`T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT IT WILL BRING A
MARKED COOL DOWN COMPARED TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WE HAD
YESTERDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE 15-
20 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CASCADE CREST WESTWARD THIS MORNING,
AND THEN MUCH SPOTTIER PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT JUMPS THE CASCADES
AND CROSSES THE EAST SIDE LATER THIS MORNING. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE
PART OF THE SYSTEM IS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL AND THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WHICH HAS NOW MOVED INSIDE 130W. THIS COLD POOL WITH 500
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -30C WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH, AND WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COAST,
UMPQUA, AND INTO THE CASCADES. NONE OF THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS
SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS, BUT THERE WILL
SURELY BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES ABOVE 4000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO MOUNTAIN TRAVELERS OUGHT TO BE
PREPARED FOR WINTRY CONDITIONS.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL BE A
CHILLY NIGHT OVER THE AREA AS COOL AIR POURS IN. A FREEZE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY FOR TONIGHT, AND WHILE CLOUD
COVER MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT, THE NEXT WEEK WILL
PRESENT MANY OPPORTUNITIES FOR CROP/PLANT DAMAGE AS WE ENTER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL WEATHER. LOWER WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AND THE
SHASTA VALLEY HAVE ENTERED THEIR GROWING SEASONS, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 30S OVER ALL THOSE AREAS ALMOST EVERY NIGHT
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN
WHETHER WE SEE IMPACTS FROM FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
HAVE TO TAKE THESE ONE NIGHT AT A TIME, BUT RIGHT NOW, THE COLDEST
NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND UPPER COLD POOL WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COLD POOL WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN TODAY`S, AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE DRY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER, A FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR AND
THE CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. THEN A COLD AND SHOWERY
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO PLACE TODAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH  COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN
OBSCURED. THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CONTINUING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INLAND...WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING AT KRBG AND KMFR. EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND IN NORTHERN CALFIORNIA EXPECT VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. INLAND...CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN
SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...BECOMING PARTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO EAST OF THE CASCADES..GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO
AROUND 5000 FEET TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO FROM THE COASTAL WATERS EASTWARD TO AROUND ROSEBURG. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1030 PM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...BEHIND A FRONT
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER THE WHOLE AREA TODAY. THE
SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL WITH
THE PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310918
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
218 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR
AREA, BUT THE REAL COLD FRONT IS JUST COMING ASHORE THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT ITSELF ISN`T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT IT WILL BRING A
MARKED COOL DOWN COMPARED TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WE HAD
YESTERDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE 15-
20 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CASCADE CREST WESTWARD THIS MORNING,
AND THEN MUCH SPOTTIER PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT JUMPS THE CASCADES
AND CROSSES THE EAST SIDE LATER THIS MORNING. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE
PART OF THE SYSTEM IS THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL AND THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WHICH HAS NOW MOVED INSIDE 130W. THIS COLD POOL WITH 500
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -30C WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH, AND WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CENTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COAST,
UMPQUA, AND INTO THE CASCADES. NONE OF THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS
SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS, BUT THERE WILL
SURELY BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES ABOVE 4000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO MOUNTAIN TRAVELERS OUGHT TO BE
PREPARED FOR WINTRY CONDITIONS.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL BE A
CHILLY NIGHT OVER THE AREA AS COOL AIR POURS IN. A FREEZE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY FOR TONIGHT, AND WHILE CLOUD
COVER MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT, THE NEXT WEEK WILL
PRESENT MANY OPPORTUNITIES FOR CROP/PLANT DAMAGE AS WE ENTER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL WEATHER. LOWER WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AND THE
SHASTA VALLEY HAVE ENTERED THEIR GROWING SEASONS, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 30S OVER ALL THOSE AREAS ALMOST EVERY NIGHT
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN
WHETHER WE SEE IMPACTS FROM FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
HAVE TO TAKE THESE ONE NIGHT AT A TIME, BUT RIGHT NOW, THE COLDEST
NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND UPPER COLD POOL WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COLD POOL WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN TODAY`S, AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE DRY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER, A FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR AND
THE CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. THEN A COLD AND SHOWERY
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO PLACE TODAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH  COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN
OBSCURED. THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CONTINUING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INLAND...WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING AT KRBG AND KMFR. EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND IN NORTHERN CALFIORNIA EXPECT VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. INLAND...CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN
SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...BECOMING PARTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO EAST OF THE CASCADES..GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO
AROUND 5000 FEET TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO FROM THE COASTAL WATERS EASTWARD TO AROUND ROSEBURG. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1030 PM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...BEHIND A FRONT
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER THE WHOLE AREA TODAY. THE
SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL WITH
THE PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 310857
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
THIS MORNING AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS.  FRONT LOOKS STRONGER
THAN IT DID IN YESTERDAY/S MODELS AND THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING WILL
INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT.  STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HIT LATE TODAY IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF
MOUNTAIN HOME AS MODELS SHOW TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THAT AREA AT THAT TIME.  MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN OREGON ZONES...BUT IN IDAHO THE FRONT WILL
COME LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 60S BEFORE
COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FULL COOLING WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT OUR CWA.  THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
ESPECIALLY MOIST BUT NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL
IN NRN ZONES...LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN.  AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING FORECAST.  UPPER
TROUGH WILL RE-DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  FIRST TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF IDAHO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE ELSE.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.  MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS RIDGE BUT
DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW.  FORECASTER THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT ANY
MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UNDER THIS WEAK RIDGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.  FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS LOW.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT
IS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY SO THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW DO NOT WANT TO YO-YO THE FORECAST WITH THE
CHANGING MODELS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE REGION WILL BE IN FOR A COOL-DOWN WITH
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY FALLING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS.   THIS
AFTERNOON INCREASING SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WITH SHOWERS.  SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 4K-6K FEET MSL BY
THIS EVENING.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KNOTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING...AFTER 18Z BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KMUO AND
SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWEST 20-30 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 310857
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
THIS MORNING AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS.  FRONT LOOKS STRONGER
THAN IT DID IN YESTERDAY/S MODELS AND THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING WILL
INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT.  STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HIT LATE TODAY IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF
MOUNTAIN HOME AS MODELS SHOW TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THAT AREA AT THAT TIME.  MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN OREGON ZONES...BUT IN IDAHO THE FRONT WILL
COME LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 60S BEFORE
COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FULL COOLING WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT OUR CWA.  THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
ESPECIALLY MOIST BUT NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL
IN NRN ZONES...LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN.  AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING FORECAST.  UPPER
TROUGH WILL RE-DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  FIRST TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF IDAHO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE ELSE.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.  MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS RIDGE BUT
DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW.  FORECASTER THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT ANY
MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UNDER THIS WEAK RIDGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.  FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS LOW.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT
IS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY SO THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW DO NOT WANT TO YO-YO THE FORECAST WITH THE
CHANGING MODELS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE REGION WILL BE IN FOR A COOL-DOWN WITH
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY FALLING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS.   THIS
AFTERNOON INCREASING SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WITH SHOWERS.  SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 4K-6K FEET MSL BY
THIS EVENING.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KNOTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING...AFTER 18Z BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KMUO AND
SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWEST 20-30 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 310857
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
THIS MORNING AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS.  FRONT LOOKS STRONGER
THAN IT DID IN YESTERDAY/S MODELS AND THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING WILL
INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT.  STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HIT LATE TODAY IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF
MOUNTAIN HOME AS MODELS SHOW TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THAT AREA AT THAT TIME.  MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN OREGON ZONES...BUT IN IDAHO THE FRONT WILL
COME LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 60S BEFORE
COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FULL COOLING WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT OUR CWA.  THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
ESPECIALLY MOIST BUT NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL
IN NRN ZONES...LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN.  AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING FORECAST.  UPPER
TROUGH WILL RE-DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  FIRST TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF IDAHO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE ELSE.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.  MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS RIDGE BUT
DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW.  FORECASTER THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT ANY
MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UNDER THIS WEAK RIDGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.  FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS LOW.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT
IS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY SO THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW DO NOT WANT TO YO-YO THE FORECAST WITH THE
CHANGING MODELS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE REGION WILL BE IN FOR A COOL-DOWN WITH
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY FALLING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS.   THIS
AFTERNOON INCREASING SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WITH SHOWERS.  SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 4K-6K FEET MSL BY
THIS EVENING.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KNOTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING...AFTER 18Z BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KMUO AND
SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWEST 20-30 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 310857
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
THIS MORNING AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS.  FRONT LOOKS STRONGER
THAN IT DID IN YESTERDAY/S MODELS AND THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING WILL
INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT.  STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HIT LATE TODAY IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF
MOUNTAIN HOME AS MODELS SHOW TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THAT AREA AT THAT TIME.  MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN OREGON ZONES...BUT IN IDAHO THE FRONT WILL
COME LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 60S BEFORE
COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FULL COOLING WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT OUR CWA.  THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
ESPECIALLY MOIST BUT NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL
IN NRN ZONES...LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN.  AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING FORECAST.  UPPER
TROUGH WILL RE-DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  FIRST TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF IDAHO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE ELSE.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.  MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS RIDGE BUT
DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW.  FORECASTER THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT ANY
MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UNDER THIS WEAK RIDGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.  FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS LOW.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT
IS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY SO THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW DO NOT WANT TO YO-YO THE FORECAST WITH THE
CHANGING MODELS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE REGION WILL BE IN FOR A COOL-DOWN WITH
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY FALLING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS.   THIS
AFTERNOON INCREASING SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WITH SHOWERS.  SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 4K-6K FEET MSL BY
THIS EVENING.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KNOTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING...AFTER 18Z BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KMUO AND
SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWEST 20-30 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 310556 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1050 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. PRIOR TO THIS THE
MODELS WERE HINTING AT A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT MAY
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLD
SHOWER MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES SUCH AS THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MORNING
AND THE FORECAST LOW TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD OCCUR CREATING
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES KPDT AND KALW BETWEEN 08Z TO 12Z.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS TO
35 KTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAFS. IN ADDITION AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY AFTER 12Z IN AND NEAR SHOWERS STARTING AT TAF SITE
KDLS...KYKM...AND KRDM AND THEN THESE CONDITIONS WILL EFFECT TAF
SITES KPDT...KPSC...KALW AFTER 15Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 429 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND NOON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME AM CONFIDENT
THAT THE KITTITAS VALLEY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS MAY BECOME EQUALLY STRONG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES, THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL BE CAUSED BY ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
A TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND WEAK TEMPORARY RIDGING OVER THE
AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY
DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG DURING THE DAY THEN
SPREADING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE 2500 TO 3500 FEET IN THE CASCADES AND 3500 TO 4500 FEET IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE DEFICIENT SO
EXPECT FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES AND AN INCH
OR LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LOW
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND DEVELOPS A TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST. MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
BACK AT 3000 TO 4000 FEET BY SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH AT THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
OFFSHORE AND EXPANDING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE
TROUGH ASHORE SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY. BOTH SCENARIOS
LOOK WET FOR US SO HAVE IN GENERAL KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY LOOKS UNSTABLE IN THE GFS SO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THAT PERIOD. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, WOULD EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IS FOUND IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MID 40S TO MID 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MAINLY
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  56  35  55 /  20  50  20  30
ALW  49  58  40  57 /  20  40  20  30
PSC  46  63  38  62 /  10  30  10  30
YKM  42  60  34  59 /  20  20  10  30
HRI  45  62  37  60 /  10  30  10  30
ELN  42  56  33  55 /  20  20  10  30
RDM  37  51  24  50 /  20  40  10  40
LGD  43  53  34  51 /  20  60  20  40
GCD  39  50  29  50 /  10  50  20  30
DLS  46  60  39  59 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97






000
FXUS66 KPDT 310556 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1050 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. PRIOR TO THIS THE
MODELS WERE HINTING AT A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT MAY
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLD
SHOWER MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES SUCH AS THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MORNING
AND THE FORECAST LOW TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD OCCUR CREATING
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES KPDT AND KALW BETWEEN 08Z TO 12Z.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS TO
35 KTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAFS. IN ADDITION AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY AFTER 12Z IN AND NEAR SHOWERS STARTING AT TAF SITE
KDLS...KYKM...AND KRDM AND THEN THESE CONDITIONS WILL EFFECT TAF
SITES KPDT...KPSC...KALW AFTER 15Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 429 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND NOON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME AM CONFIDENT
THAT THE KITTITAS VALLEY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS MAY BECOME EQUALLY STRONG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES, THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL BE CAUSED BY ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
A TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND WEAK TEMPORARY RIDGING OVER THE
AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY
DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG DURING THE DAY THEN
SPREADING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE 2500 TO 3500 FEET IN THE CASCADES AND 3500 TO 4500 FEET IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE DEFICIENT SO
EXPECT FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES AND AN INCH
OR LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LOW
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND DEVELOPS A TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST. MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
BACK AT 3000 TO 4000 FEET BY SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH AT THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
OFFSHORE AND EXPANDING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE
TROUGH ASHORE SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY. BOTH SCENARIOS
LOOK WET FOR US SO HAVE IN GENERAL KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY LOOKS UNSTABLE IN THE GFS SO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THAT PERIOD. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, WOULD EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IS FOUND IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MID 40S TO MID 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MAINLY
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  56  35  55 /  20  50  20  30
ALW  49  58  40  57 /  20  40  20  30
PSC  46  63  38  62 /  10  30  10  30
YKM  42  60  34  59 /  20  20  10  30
HRI  45  62  37  60 /  10  30  10  30
ELN  42  56  33  55 /  20  20  10  30
RDM  37  51  24  50 /  20  40  10  40
LGD  43  53  34  51 /  20  60  20  40
GCD  39  50  29  50 /  10  50  20  30
DLS  46  60  39  59 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97







000
FXUS66 KPDT 310556 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1050 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. PRIOR TO THIS THE
MODELS WERE HINTING AT A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT MAY
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLD
SHOWER MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES SUCH AS THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MORNING
AND THE FORECAST LOW TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD OCCUR CREATING
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES KPDT AND KALW BETWEEN 08Z TO 12Z.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS TO
35 KTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAFS. IN ADDITION AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY AFTER 12Z IN AND NEAR SHOWERS STARTING AT TAF SITE
KDLS...KYKM...AND KRDM AND THEN THESE CONDITIONS WILL EFFECT TAF
SITES KPDT...KPSC...KALW AFTER 15Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 429 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND NOON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME AM CONFIDENT
THAT THE KITTITAS VALLEY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS MAY BECOME EQUALLY STRONG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES, THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL BE CAUSED BY ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
A TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND WEAK TEMPORARY RIDGING OVER THE
AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY
DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG DURING THE DAY THEN
SPREADING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE 2500 TO 3500 FEET IN THE CASCADES AND 3500 TO 4500 FEET IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE DEFICIENT SO
EXPECT FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES AND AN INCH
OR LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LOW
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND DEVELOPS A TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST. MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
BACK AT 3000 TO 4000 FEET BY SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH AT THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
OFFSHORE AND EXPANDING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE
TROUGH ASHORE SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY. BOTH SCENARIOS
LOOK WET FOR US SO HAVE IN GENERAL KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY LOOKS UNSTABLE IN THE GFS SO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THAT PERIOD. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, WOULD EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IS FOUND IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MID 40S TO MID 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MAINLY
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  56  35  55 /  20  50  20  30
ALW  49  58  40  57 /  20  40  20  30
PSC  46  63  38  62 /  10  30  10  30
YKM  42  60  34  59 /  20  20  10  30
HRI  45  62  37  60 /  10  30  10  30
ELN  42  56  33  55 /  20  20  10  30
RDM  37  51  24  50 /  20  40  10  40
LGD  43  53  34  51 /  20  60  20  40
GCD  39  50  29  50 /  10  50  20  30
DLS  46  60  39  59 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97






000
FXUS66 KPDT 310556 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1050 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. PRIOR TO THIS THE
MODELS WERE HINTING AT A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT MAY
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLD
SHOWER MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES SUCH AS THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MORNING
AND THE FORECAST LOW TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD OCCUR CREATING
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES KPDT AND KALW BETWEEN 08Z TO 12Z.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS TO
35 KTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAFS. IN ADDITION AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY AFTER 12Z IN AND NEAR SHOWERS STARTING AT TAF SITE
KDLS...KYKM...AND KRDM AND THEN THESE CONDITIONS WILL EFFECT TAF
SITES KPDT...KPSC...KALW AFTER 15Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 429 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND NOON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME AM CONFIDENT
THAT THE KITTITAS VALLEY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS MAY BECOME EQUALLY STRONG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES, THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL BE CAUSED BY ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
A TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND WEAK TEMPORARY RIDGING OVER THE
AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY
DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG DURING THE DAY THEN
SPREADING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE 2500 TO 3500 FEET IN THE CASCADES AND 3500 TO 4500 FEET IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE DEFICIENT SO
EXPECT FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES AND AN INCH
OR LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LOW
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND DEVELOPS A TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST. MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
BACK AT 3000 TO 4000 FEET BY SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH AT THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
OFFSHORE AND EXPANDING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE
TROUGH ASHORE SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY. BOTH SCENARIOS
LOOK WET FOR US SO HAVE IN GENERAL KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY LOOKS UNSTABLE IN THE GFS SO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THAT PERIOD. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, WOULD EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IS FOUND IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MID 40S TO MID 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MAINLY
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  56  35  55 /  20  50  20  30
ALW  49  58  40  57 /  20  40  20  30
PSC  46  63  38  62 /  10  30  10  30
YKM  42  60  34  59 /  20  20  10  30
HRI  45  62  37  60 /  10  30  10  30
ELN  42  56  33  55 /  20  20  10  30
RDM  37  51  24  50 /  20  40  10  40
LGD  43  53  34  51 /  20  60  20  40
GCD  39  50  29  50 /  10  50  20  30
DLS  46  60  39  59 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97







000
FXUS66 KPQR 310429
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
928 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF OR WHERE TRAINING
CELLS WOULD OCCUR...BUT THE BEST TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 PM
TO 5 PM TUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310429
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
928 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF OR WHERE TRAINING
CELLS WOULD OCCUR...BUT THE BEST TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 PM
TO 5 PM TUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310429
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
928 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF OR WHERE TRAINING
CELLS WOULD OCCUR...BUT THE BEST TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 PM
TO 5 PM TUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310429
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
928 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF OR WHERE TRAINING
CELLS WOULD OCCUR...BUT THE BEST TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 PM
TO 5 PM TUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310429
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
928 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF OR WHERE TRAINING
CELLS WOULD OCCUR...BUT THE BEST TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 PM
TO 5 PM TUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310429
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
928 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF OR WHERE TRAINING
CELLS WOULD OCCUR...BUT THE BEST TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 PM
TO 5 PM TUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310429
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
928 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF OR WHERE TRAINING
CELLS WOULD OCCUR...BUT THE BEST TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 PM
TO 5 PM TUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310429
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
928 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE IF OR WHERE TRAINING
CELLS WOULD OCCUR...BUT THE BEST TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2 PM
TO 5 PM TUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
918 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE ON WHEN OR WHERE IT
WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR
TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
918 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE ON WHEN OR WHERE IT
WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR
TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
918 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE ON WHEN OR WHERE IT
WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR
TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
918 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE ON WHEN OR WHERE IT
WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR
TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 310421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
918 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE ON WHEN OR WHERE IT
WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR
TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 310421
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
918 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM NWS NETWORK RADAR SHOWS PCPN WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST.    THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS - BUT NO LIGHTNING - EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT THAT WERE SEEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.   FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND
THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT A
FEW HOUR BURST OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COAST...NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
THAT PART OF THE CWA BUT WINDS SHOULD RISE QUICKLY.

00Z GFS/NAM MODEL STILL SHOWING QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER US
TUE. GFS CAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 J/KG  RANGE BUT WITH
PEAK AROUND 500-700 J/KG.  ALSO THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS MOSTLY
WELL ABOVE THE -30C LEVELS SO HAIL GROWTH SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
PROBABLY THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO INITIATE THE STRONGER
CELLS.VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EXCEPT FOR
THE LOWEST 50 MB. THIS PATTERN COULD SET UP TRAINING CELLS WHERE A
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND FORM A LINE PARALLEL TO
THE WIND FLOW - IN THIS CASE WSW TO ENE.  POSSIBLE IMPACTS WITH THIS
IS HEAVY RAIN SITTING OVER A PARTICULAR AREA CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING.HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE ON WHEN OR WHERE IT
WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR
TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 2 PM...
SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIR MASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING A BRIEF DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER
WHICH...INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS...SOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 15Z TUESDAY AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND THEIR EXPECTED BREVITY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THESE
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
TONIGHT. POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
/NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN GENERAL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT
LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
BRING A BOUT OR TWO OF GUSTY 25 KT WINDS AND/OR HIGHER SEAS OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS STILL LOW AT
THIS POINT. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM
    PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310346
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
846 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...A FRONT IS LOCATED OFFSHORE AND WILL MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS  SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION BEGINNING ALONG THE
COAST THIS EVENING THEN SPREADING INLAND TO THE CASCADES TONIGHT
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOP EAST OF THE CASCADES
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
LIGHT WITH THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SHARPLY FROM 9000 FT
TO AROUND 5500 FEET FROM THE CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND BRING A SHOWERY PATTERN TO THE AREA. WITH THIS COLD
UPPER TROUGH, SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FURTHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING DOWN TO 3500 TO 4500 FEET FROM THE CASCADES
WEST AND TO 4500 TO 5500 FEET EAST TO THE CASCADES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES WEST
TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS ALSO SHOW A COLD POOL WITH INSTABILITY THAT MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, MAINLY
FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME SLIGHT
THREAT FOR NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY AS WELL.




&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO THE COAST THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES WITH COVERAGE BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH
COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT.
AS RAIN SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT
LCL MVFR CIGS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. EAST OF
THE CASCADES..GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR EAST
OF THE CASCADES.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING FREEZING LEVELS DOWN BY
5000 FEET FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO FROM THE COASTAL WATERS EAST INTO TO ROSEBURG. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH
WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER THE WHOLE AREA...BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE LIMITED
TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE ARAGO AND BEYOND 10NM OFFSHORE...EXCEPT NEAR
SHORE FROM REEDSPORT NORTHWARD. THE SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL WITH THE PERIOD AROUND 14
SECONDS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...BUT
IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SK/FB


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A COLD
FRONT NEAR 130 WEST ADVANCING TOWARD THE COAST. WARM CONDITIONS
PRECEDE THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMTH WILL BE A FADING MEMORY TUESDAY AS A
MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVES IN OVERHEAD. WE CAN SEE EVIDENCE OF THE
COLD AIR MASS ALOFT WITH ALL THE COLD CORE CUMULUS CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BAND OF
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THE COAST TO
THE CASCADES. EAST OF THE CASCADES, PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
WILL DIMINISH TO ISO/SCT SHOWERS TUESDAY, BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AT
TIMES. BY FAR THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE THE 15-25 DEGREE
DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY TO TUESDAY. MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO MOIST
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INLAND. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND THE MAJOR PASSES (4500 FT) AND A SMALL
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS LIKELY ABOVE 5000 FEET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY AS THE POOL
OF SUB -30C AIR AT 500 MB GRAZES THE AREA. GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND SHOWERS WILL RETREAT BACK TO AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
EXPECT ENOUGH DRYING TO ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT..A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SHASTA VALLEY. CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY BREAK AT TIMES IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY TOO...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL FREEZE THRESHOLDS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY REINFORCING THE CHILLY AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WON`T BE AS MOIST, SO SHOWERS WON`T BE
AS NUMEROUS, BUT STILL EXPECT SOME OUT THERE, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN, THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE
UNSTABLE, SO ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING THUNDER ALONG WITH GRAUPEL/SMALL
HAIL.

ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IN OREGON WEST OF THE CASCADES MAY BE
NECESSARY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN, THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD-COVER
WILL LESSEN. RIGHT NOW, THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A FREEZE IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SPILDE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
EXCEPTION IS OUR NW CORNER IN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES. TIMING IS SIMILAR ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
THE GFS SHOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNT. THEREFORE
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE SOME RAIN THERE
ON FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE CLEARING SKIES MAY ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DIP CLOSER  TO
FREEZING FOR THE RURAL AREA OF ROGUE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL CONSISTENT AT DROPPING A
BROAD TROUGH INTO THE EASTER PACIFIC AND THE WEST COAST. WE`RE
CONTINUING TO STEER WITH THE COOLER AND SHOWERY FORECAST. BOTH
MODELS MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH THE ECMWF PLACING THE LOW
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A MORE SW FLOW INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...WHEREAS
THE GFS PLACES THE TROUGH RIGHT OVER THE PAC NW. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON AMOUNT TO PUT MORE THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THE MOMENT. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310346
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
846 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...A FRONT IS LOCATED OFFSHORE AND WILL MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS  SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION BEGINNING ALONG THE
COAST THIS EVENING THEN SPREADING INLAND TO THE CASCADES TONIGHT
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOP EAST OF THE CASCADES
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
LIGHT WITH THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SHARPLY FROM 9000 FT
TO AROUND 5500 FEET FROM THE CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND BRING A SHOWERY PATTERN TO THE AREA. WITH THIS COLD
UPPER TROUGH, SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER FURTHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING DOWN TO 3500 TO 4500 FEET FROM THE CASCADES
WEST AND TO 4500 TO 5500 FEET EAST TO THE CASCADES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES WEST
TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS ALSO SHOW A COLD POOL WITH INSTABILITY THAT MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, MAINLY
FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME SLIGHT
THREAT FOR NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY AS WELL.




&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO THE COAST THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES WITH COVERAGE BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH
COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT.
AS RAIN SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT
LCL MVFR CIGS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. EAST OF
THE CASCADES..GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR EAST
OF THE CASCADES.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING FREEZING LEVELS DOWN BY
5000 FEET FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO FROM THE COASTAL WATERS EAST INTO TO ROSEBURG. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH
WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER THE WHOLE AREA...BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE LIMITED
TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE ARAGO AND BEYOND 10NM OFFSHORE...EXCEPT NEAR
SHORE FROM REEDSPORT NORTHWARD. THE SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL WITH THE PERIOD AROUND 14
SECONDS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...BUT
IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SK/FB


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A COLD
FRONT NEAR 130 WEST ADVANCING TOWARD THE COAST. WARM CONDITIONS
PRECEDE THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMTH WILL BE A FADING MEMORY TUESDAY AS A
MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVES IN OVERHEAD. WE CAN SEE EVIDENCE OF THE
COLD AIR MASS ALOFT WITH ALL THE COLD CORE CUMULUS CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BAND OF
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THE COAST TO
THE CASCADES. EAST OF THE CASCADES, PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
WILL DIMINISH TO ISO/SCT SHOWERS TUESDAY, BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AT
TIMES. BY FAR THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE THE 15-25 DEGREE
DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY TO TUESDAY. MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO MOIST
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INLAND. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND THE MAJOR PASSES (4500 FT) AND A SMALL
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS LIKELY ABOVE 5000 FEET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY AS THE POOL
OF SUB -30C AIR AT 500 MB GRAZES THE AREA. GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND SHOWERS WILL RETREAT BACK TO AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
EXPECT ENOUGH DRYING TO ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT..A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SHASTA VALLEY. CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY BREAK AT TIMES IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY TOO...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL FREEZE THRESHOLDS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY REINFORCING THE CHILLY AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WON`T BE AS MOIST, SO SHOWERS WON`T BE
AS NUMEROUS, BUT STILL EXPECT SOME OUT THERE, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN, THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE
UNSTABLE, SO ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING THUNDER ALONG WITH GRAUPEL/SMALL
HAIL.

ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IN OREGON WEST OF THE CASCADES MAY BE
NECESSARY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN, THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD-COVER
WILL LESSEN. RIGHT NOW, THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A FREEZE IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SPILDE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
EXCEPTION IS OUR NW CORNER IN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES. TIMING IS SIMILAR ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
THE GFS SHOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNT. THEREFORE
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE SOME RAIN THERE
ON FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE CLEARING SKIES MAY ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DIP CLOSER  TO
FREEZING FOR THE RURAL AREA OF ROGUE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL CONSISTENT AT DROPPING A
BROAD TROUGH INTO THE EASTER PACIFIC AND THE WEST COAST. WE`RE
CONTINUING TO STEER WITH THE COOLER AND SHOWERY FORECAST. BOTH
MODELS MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH THE ECMWF PLACING THE LOW
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A MORE SW FLOW INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...WHEREAS
THE GFS PLACES THE TROUGH RIGHT OVER THE PAC NW. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON AMOUNT TO PUT MORE THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THE MOMENT. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 310254
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
854 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A VERY WARM DAY WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH...THE
FORECAST FOR A COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IS RIGHT ON TRACK. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH A 40 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND AS HIGH AS 45 MPH IN THE MAGIC VALLEY ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. CEILINGS LOWERING AFTER
18Z/TUES...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AFTER 21Z/TUES. SNOW
LEVELS LOWERING TO 5-6K FT MSL BY 00Z/WED. SURFACE WINDS 12KT OR
LESS THROUGH 12Z/TUES...AFTER 18Z/TUES BECOMING WESTERLY-
NORTHWESTERLY 15-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT IN THE MAGIC VALLEY.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SOUTHWEST 20-30KT....BECOMING WNW 20-
30KT 00Z/WED.

&&



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST
TIME WE SEE VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR AWHILE...AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING WINDY
BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS /SUSTAINED 30
MPH AND/OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH/ LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY /SOUTHEAST OF BOISE/ INTO
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3000 FEET
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD BOTH DAYS...COOLING TO
BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECTING AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MID TO LONG RANGE FORECASTS. THE FIRST
TROUGH WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION...AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDER TO THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY DRY WEATHER AND A GENERAL WARMING
TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE A
CLOSED-LOW SYSTEM. THIS WILL AFFECT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BEST
CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4-6 KFT FOR THE
DURATION OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....EP/AB



000
FXUS66 KPDT 310236 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
730 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. PRIOR TO THIS THE
MODELS WERE HINTING AT A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT MAY
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLD
SHOWER MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES SUCH AS THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MORNING
AND THE FORECAST LOW TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 429 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND NOON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME AM CONFIDENT
THAT THE KITTITAS VALLEY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS MAY BECOME EQUALLY STRONG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES, THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL BE CAUSED BY ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
A TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND WEAK TEMPORARY RIDGING OVER THE
AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY
DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG DURING THE DAY THEN
SPREADING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE 2500 TO 3500 FEET IN THE CASCADES AND 3500 TO 4500 FEET IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE DEFICIENT SO
EXPECT FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES AND AN INCH
OR LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LOW
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND DEVELOPS A TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST. MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
BACK AT 3000 TO 4000 FEET BY SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH AT THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
OFFSHORE AND EXPANDING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE
TROUGH ASHORE SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY. BOTH SCENARIOS
LOOK WET FOR US SO HAVE IN GENERAL KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY LOOKS UNSTABLE IN THE GFS SO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THAT PERIOD. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, WOULD EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IS FOUND IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MID 40S TO MID 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MAINLY
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 20K FEET. AFTER 03Z MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 4000-8000 FEET
AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PARTIAL CLEARING
AND AN END TO THE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AROUND 14Z-15Z. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY SCATTERED ABOVE 6000 FEET AFTER 20Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 12 KTS THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT. AFTER 12Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 17Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS BY 21Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  56  35  55 /  20  50  20  30
ALW  49  58  40  57 /  20  40  20  30
PSC  46  63  38  62 /  10  30  10  30
YKM  42  60  34  59 /  20  20  10  30
HRI  45  62  37  60 /  10  30  10  30
ELN  42  56  33  55 /  20  20  10  30
RDM  37  51  24  50 /  20  40  10  40
LGD  43  53  34  51 /  20  60  20  40
GCD  39  50  29  50 /  10  50  20  30
DLS  46  60  39  59 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/








000
FXUS66 KPDT 310236 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
730 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. PRIOR TO THIS THE
MODELS WERE HINTING AT A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT MAY
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLD
SHOWER MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES SUCH AS THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD MORNING
AND THE FORECAST LOW TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 429 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND NOON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME AM CONFIDENT
THAT THE KITTITAS VALLEY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS MAY BECOME EQUALLY STRONG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES, THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL BE CAUSED BY ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY. 90

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
A TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND WEAK TEMPORARY RIDGING OVER THE
AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY
DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG DURING THE DAY THEN
SPREADING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE 2500 TO 3500 FEET IN THE CASCADES AND 3500 TO 4500 FEET IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE DEFICIENT SO
EXPECT FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES AND AN INCH
OR LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LOW
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND DEVELOPS A TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST. MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
BACK AT 3000 TO 4000 FEET BY SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH AT THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
OFFSHORE AND EXPANDING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE
TROUGH ASHORE SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY. BOTH SCENARIOS
LOOK WET FOR US SO HAVE IN GENERAL KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY LOOKS UNSTABLE IN THE GFS SO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THAT PERIOD. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, WOULD EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IS FOUND IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MID 40S TO MID 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MAINLY
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 20K FEET. AFTER 03Z MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 4000-8000 FEET
AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PARTIAL CLEARING
AND AN END TO THE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AROUND 14Z-15Z. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY SCATTERED ABOVE 6000 FEET AFTER 20Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 12 KTS THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT. AFTER 12Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 17Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS BY 21Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  56  35  55 /  20  50  20  30
ALW  49  58  40  57 /  20  40  20  30
PSC  46  63  38  62 /  10  30  10  30
YKM  42  60  34  59 /  20  20  10  30
HRI  45  62  37  60 /  10  30  10  30
ELN  42  56  33  55 /  20  20  10  30
RDM  37  51  24  50 /  20  40  10  40
LGD  43  53  34  51 /  20  60  20  40
GCD  39  50  29  50 /  10  50  20  30
DLS  46  60  39  59 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/









000
FXUS66 KMFR 310015
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
515 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A COLD
FRONT NEAR 130 WEST ADVANCING TOWARD THE COAST. WARM CONDITIONS
PRECEDE THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMTH WILL BE A FADING MEMORY TUESDAY AS A
MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVES IN OVERHEAD. WE CAN SEE EVIDENCE OF THE
COLD AIR MASS ALOFT WITH ALL THE COLD CORE CUMULUS CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BAND OF
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THE COAST TO
THE CASCADES. EAST OF THE CASCADES, PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
WILL DIMINISH TO ISO/SCT SHOWERS TUESDAY, BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AT
TIMES. BY FAR THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE THE 15-25 DEGREE
DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY TO TUESDAY. MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO MOIST
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INLAND. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND THE MAJOR PASSES (4500 FT) AND A SMALL
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS LIKELY ABOVE 5000 FEET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY AS THE POOL
OF SUB -30C AIR AT 500 MB GRAZES THE AREA. GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND SHOWERS WILL RETREAT BACK TO AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
EXPECT ENOUGH DRYING TO ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT..A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SHASTA VALLEY. CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY BREAK AT TIMES IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY TOO...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL FREEZE THRESHOLDS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY REINFORCING THE CHILLY AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WON`T BE AS MOIST, SO SHOWERS WON`T BE
AS NUMEROUS, BUT STILL EXPECT SOME OUT THERE, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN, THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE
UNSTABLE, SO ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING THUNDER ALONG WITH GRAUPEL/SMALL
HAIL.

ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IN OREGON WEST OF THE CASCADES MAY BE
NECESSARY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN, THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD-COVER
WILL LESSEN. RIGHT NOW, THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A FREEZE IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SPILDE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
EXCEPTION IS OUR NW CORNER IN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES. TIMING IS SIMILAR ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
THE GFS SHOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNT. THEREFORE
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE SOME RAIN THERE
ON FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE CLEARING SKIES MAY ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DIP CLOSER  TO
FREEZING FOR THE RURAL AREA OF ROGUE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL CONSISTENT AT DROPPING A
BROAD TROUGH INTO THE EASTER PACIFIC AND THE WEST COAST. WE`RE
CONTINUING TO STEER WITH THE COOLER AND SHOWERY FORECAST. BOTH
MODELS MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH THE ECMWF PLACING THE LOW
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A MORE SW FLOW INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...WHEREAS
THE GFS PLACES THE TROUGH RIGHT OVER THE PAC NW. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON AMOUNT TO PUT MORE THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THE MOMENT. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO THE COAST THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES WITH COVERAGE BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH
COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT.
AS RAIN SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT
LCL MVFR CIGS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. EAST OF
THE CASCADES..GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR EAST
OF THE CASCADES.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING FREEZING LEVELS DOWN BY
5000 FEET FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO FROM THE COASTAL WATERS EAST INTO TO ROSEBURG. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH
WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER THE WHOLE AREA...BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE LIMITED
TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE ARAGO AND BEYOND 10NM OFFSHORE...EXCEPT NEAR
SHORE FROM REEDSPORT NORTHWARD. THE SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL WITH THE PERIOD AROUND 14
SECONDS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...BUT
IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SK/FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
  5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370-376.

$$

MAS/FJB/NSK



000
FXUS66 KMFR 310015
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
515 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A COLD
FRONT NEAR 130 WEST ADVANCING TOWARD THE COAST. WARM CONDITIONS
PRECEDE THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMTH WILL BE A FADING MEMORY TUESDAY AS A
MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVES IN OVERHEAD. WE CAN SEE EVIDENCE OF THE
COLD AIR MASS ALOFT WITH ALL THE COLD CORE CUMULUS CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BAND OF
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THE COAST TO
THE CASCADES. EAST OF THE CASCADES, PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
WILL DIMINISH TO ISO/SCT SHOWERS TUESDAY, BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AT
TIMES. BY FAR THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE THE 15-25 DEGREE
DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY TO TUESDAY. MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO MOIST
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INLAND. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND THE MAJOR PASSES (4500 FT) AND A SMALL
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS LIKELY ABOVE 5000 FEET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY AS THE POOL
OF SUB -30C AIR AT 500 MB GRAZES THE AREA. GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND SHOWERS WILL RETREAT BACK TO AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
EXPECT ENOUGH DRYING TO ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT..A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SHASTA VALLEY. CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY BREAK AT TIMES IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY TOO...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL FREEZE THRESHOLDS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY REINFORCING THE CHILLY AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WON`T BE AS MOIST, SO SHOWERS WON`T BE
AS NUMEROUS, BUT STILL EXPECT SOME OUT THERE, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN, THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE
UNSTABLE, SO ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING THUNDER ALONG WITH GRAUPEL/SMALL
HAIL.

ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IN OREGON WEST OF THE CASCADES MAY BE
NECESSARY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN, THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD-COVER
WILL LESSEN. RIGHT NOW, THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A FREEZE IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SPILDE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
EXCEPTION IS OUR NW CORNER IN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES. TIMING IS SIMILAR ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
THE GFS SHOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNT. THEREFORE
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE SOME RAIN THERE
ON FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE CLEARING SKIES MAY ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DIP CLOSER  TO
FREEZING FOR THE RURAL AREA OF ROGUE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL CONSISTENT AT DROPPING A
BROAD TROUGH INTO THE EASTER PACIFIC AND THE WEST COAST. WE`RE
CONTINUING TO STEER WITH THE COOLER AND SHOWERY FORECAST. BOTH
MODELS MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH THE ECMWF PLACING THE LOW
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A MORE SW FLOW INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...WHEREAS
THE GFS PLACES THE TROUGH RIGHT OVER THE PAC NW. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON AMOUNT TO PUT MORE THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THE MOMENT. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO THE COAST THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES WITH COVERAGE BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH
COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT.
AS RAIN SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT
LCL MVFR CIGS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. EAST OF
THE CASCADES..GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR EAST
OF THE CASCADES.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING FREEZING LEVELS DOWN BY
5000 FEET FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO FROM THE COASTAL WATERS EAST INTO TO ROSEBURG. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH
WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER THE WHOLE AREA...BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE LIMITED
TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE ARAGO AND BEYOND 10NM OFFSHORE...EXCEPT NEAR
SHORE FROM REEDSPORT NORTHWARD. THE SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL WITH THE PERIOD AROUND 14
SECONDS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...BUT
IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SK/FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
  5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370-376.

$$

MAS/FJB/NSK




000
FXUS66 KMFR 310015
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
515 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A COLD
FRONT NEAR 130 WEST ADVANCING TOWARD THE COAST. WARM CONDITIONS
PRECEDE THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMTH WILL BE A FADING MEMORY TUESDAY AS A
MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVES IN OVERHEAD. WE CAN SEE EVIDENCE OF THE
COLD AIR MASS ALOFT WITH ALL THE COLD CORE CUMULUS CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BAND OF
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THE COAST TO
THE CASCADES. EAST OF THE CASCADES, PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
WILL DIMINISH TO ISO/SCT SHOWERS TUESDAY, BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AT
TIMES. BY FAR THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE THE 15-25 DEGREE
DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY TO TUESDAY. MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO MOIST
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INLAND. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND THE MAJOR PASSES (4500 FT) AND A SMALL
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS LIKELY ABOVE 5000 FEET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY AS THE POOL
OF SUB -30C AIR AT 500 MB GRAZES THE AREA. GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND SHOWERS WILL RETREAT BACK TO AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
EXPECT ENOUGH DRYING TO ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT..A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SHASTA VALLEY. CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY BREAK AT TIMES IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY TOO...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL FREEZE THRESHOLDS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY REINFORCING THE CHILLY AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WON`T BE AS MOIST, SO SHOWERS WON`T BE
AS NUMEROUS, BUT STILL EXPECT SOME OUT THERE, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN, THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE
UNSTABLE, SO ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING THUNDER ALONG WITH GRAUPEL/SMALL
HAIL.

ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IN OREGON WEST OF THE CASCADES MAY BE
NECESSARY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN, THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD-COVER
WILL LESSEN. RIGHT NOW, THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A FREEZE IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SPILDE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
EXCEPTION IS OUR NW CORNER IN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES. TIMING IS SIMILAR ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
THE GFS SHOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNT. THEREFORE
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE SOME RAIN THERE
ON FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE CLEARING SKIES MAY ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DIP CLOSER  TO
FREEZING FOR THE RURAL AREA OF ROGUE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL CONSISTENT AT DROPPING A
BROAD TROUGH INTO THE EASTER PACIFIC AND THE WEST COAST. WE`RE
CONTINUING TO STEER WITH THE COOLER AND SHOWERY FORECAST. BOTH
MODELS MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH THE ECMWF PLACING THE LOW
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A MORE SW FLOW INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...WHEREAS
THE GFS PLACES THE TROUGH RIGHT OVER THE PAC NW. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON AMOUNT TO PUT MORE THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THE MOMENT. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO THE COAST THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES WITH COVERAGE BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH
COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT.
AS RAIN SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT
LCL MVFR CIGS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. EAST OF
THE CASCADES..GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR EAST
OF THE CASCADES.

ALSO OF NOTE...THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING FREEZING LEVELS DOWN BY
5000 FEET FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO FROM THE COASTAL WATERS EAST INTO TO ROSEBURG. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH
WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER THE WHOLE AREA...BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE LIMITED
TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE ARAGO AND BEYOND 10NM OFFSHORE...EXCEPT NEAR
SHORE FROM REEDSPORT NORTHWARD. THE SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL WITH THE PERIOD AROUND 14
SECONDS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...BUT
IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SK/FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
  5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370-376.

$$

MAS/FJB/NSK



000
FXUS66 KPDT 302329 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
429 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND NOON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME AM CONFIDENT
THAT THE KITTITAS VALLEY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS MAY BECOME EQUALLY STRONG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES, THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL BE CAUSED BY ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
A TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND WEAK TEMPORARY RIDGING OVER THE
AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY
DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG DURING THE DAY THEN
SPREADING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE 2500 TO 3500 FEET IN THE CASCADES AND 3500 TO 4500 FEET IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE DEFICIENT SO
EXPECT FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES AND AN INCH
OR LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LOW
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND DEVELOPS A TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST. MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
BACK AT 3000 TO 4000 FEET BY SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH AT THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
OFFSHORE AND EXPANDING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE
TROUGH ASHORE SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY. BOTH SCENARIOS
LOOK WET FOR US SO HAVE IN GENERAL KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY LOOKS UNSTABLE IN THE GFS SO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THAT PERIOD. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, WOULD EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IS FOUND IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MID 40S TO MID 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MAINLY
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 20K FEET. AFTER 03Z MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 4000-8000 FEET
AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PARTIAL CLEARING
AND AN END TO THE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AROUND 14Z-15Z. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY SCATTERED ABOVE 6000 FEET AFTER 20Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 12 KTS THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT. AFTER 12Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 17Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS BY 21Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  56  35  55 /  20  50  20  30
ALW  49  58  40  57 /  20  40  20  30
PSC  46  63  38  62 /  10  30  10  30
YKM  42  60  34  59 /  20  20  10  30
HRI  45  62  37  60 /  10  30  10  30
ELN  42  56  33  55 /  20  20  10  30
RDM  37  51  24  50 /  20  40  10  40
LGD  43  53  34  51 /  20  60  20  40
GCD  39  50  29  50 /  10  50  20  30
DLS  46  60  39  59 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/83











000
FXUS66 KPDT 302329 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
429 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND NOON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME AM CONFIDENT
THAT THE KITTITAS VALLEY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS MAY BECOME EQUALLY STRONG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES, THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL BE CAUSED BY ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
A TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND WEAK TEMPORARY RIDGING OVER THE
AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY
DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG DURING THE DAY THEN
SPREADING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE 2500 TO 3500 FEET IN THE CASCADES AND 3500 TO 4500 FEET IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE DEFICIENT SO
EXPECT FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES AND AN INCH
OR LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LOW
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND DEVELOPS A TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST. MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
BACK AT 3000 TO 4000 FEET BY SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH AT THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
OFFSHORE AND EXPANDING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE
TROUGH ASHORE SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY. BOTH SCENARIOS
LOOK WET FOR US SO HAVE IN GENERAL KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY LOOKS UNSTABLE IN THE GFS SO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THAT PERIOD. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, WOULD EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IS FOUND IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MID 40S TO MID 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MAINLY
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 20K FEET. AFTER 03Z MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 4000-8000 FEET
AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PARTIAL CLEARING
AND AN END TO THE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AROUND 14Z-15Z. CEILINGS WILL
BE MAINLY SCATTERED ABOVE 6000 FEET AFTER 20Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 12 KTS THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT. AFTER 12Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 17Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS BY 21Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  56  35  55 /  20  50  20  30
ALW  49  58  40  57 /  20  40  20  30
PSC  46  63  38  62 /  10  30  10  30
YKM  42  60  34  59 /  20  20  10  30
HRI  45  62  37  60 /  10  30  10  30
ELN  42  56  33  55 /  20  20  10  30
RDM  37  51  24  50 /  20  40  10  40
LGD  43  53  34  51 /  20  60  20  40
GCD  39  50  29  50 /  10  50  20  30
DLS  46  60  39  59 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/83












000
FXUS66 KPDT 302139
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
239 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND NOON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME AM CONFIDENT
THAT THE KITTITAS VALLEY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS MAY BECOME EQUALLY STRONG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES, THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL BE CAUSED BY ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
A TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND WEAK TEMPORARY RIDGING OVER THE
AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY
DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG DURING THE DAY THEN
SPREADING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE 2500 TO 3500 FEET IN THE CASCADES AND 3500 TO 4500 FEET IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE DEFICIENT SO
EXPECT FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES AND AN INCH
OR LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LOW
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND DEVELOPS A TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST. MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
BACK AT 3000 TO 4000 FEET BY SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH AT THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
OFFSHORE AND EXPANDING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE
TROUGH ASHORE SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY. BOTH SCENARIOS
LOOK WET FOR US SO HAVE IN GENERAL KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY LOOKS UNSTABLE IN THE GFS SO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THAT PERIOD. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, WOULD EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IS FOUND IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MID 40S TO MID 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MAINLY
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN ABOVE 20K FEET THOUGH SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z. AFTER 00Z MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 3500-7000
FEET AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL BEGIN AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 10-15 KTS WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT KDLS FROM 22Z-03Z. AFTER 12Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  56  35  55 /  20  50  20  30
ALW  49  58  40  57 /  20  40  20  30
PSC  46  63  38  62 /  10  30  10  30
YKM  42  60  34  59 /  20  20  10  30
HRI  45  62  37  60 /  10  30  10  30
ELN  42  56  33  55 /  20  20  10  30
RDM  37  51  24  50 /  20  40  10  40
LGD  43  53  34  51 /  20  60  20  40
GCD  39  50  29  50 /  10  50  20  30
DLS  46  60  39  59 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/83








000
FXUS66 KPDT 302139
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
239 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND NOON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME AM CONFIDENT
THAT THE KITTITAS VALLEY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS MAY BECOME EQUALLY STRONG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES, THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL BE CAUSED BY ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
A TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND WEAK TEMPORARY RIDGING OVER THE
AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY
DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG DURING THE DAY THEN
SPREADING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE 2500 TO 3500 FEET IN THE CASCADES AND 3500 TO 4500 FEET IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE DEFICIENT SO
EXPECT FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES AND AN INCH
OR LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LOW
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND DEVELOPS A TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST. MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
BACK AT 3000 TO 4000 FEET BY SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH AT THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
OFFSHORE AND EXPANDING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE
TROUGH ASHORE SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY. BOTH SCENARIOS
LOOK WET FOR US SO HAVE IN GENERAL KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY LOOKS UNSTABLE IN THE GFS SO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THAT PERIOD. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, WOULD EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IS FOUND IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MID 40S TO MID 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MAINLY
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN ABOVE 20K FEET THOUGH SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z. AFTER 00Z MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 3500-7000
FEET AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL BEGIN AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 10-15 KTS WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT KDLS FROM 22Z-03Z. AFTER 12Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  56  35  55 /  20  50  20  30
ALW  49  58  40  57 /  20  40  20  30
PSC  46  63  38  62 /  10  30  10  30
YKM  42  60  34  59 /  20  20  10  30
HRI  45  62  37  60 /  10  30  10  30
ELN  42  56  33  55 /  20  20  10  30
RDM  37  51  24  50 /  20  40  10  40
LGD  43  53  34  51 /  20  60  20  40
GCD  39  50  29  50 /  10  50  20  30
DLS  46  60  39  59 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/83








000
FXUS66 KPDT 302139
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
239 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND NOON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME AM CONFIDENT
THAT THE KITTITAS VALLEY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS MAY BECOME EQUALLY STRONG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES, THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL BE CAUSED BY ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
A TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND WEAK TEMPORARY RIDGING OVER THE
AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY
DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG DURING THE DAY THEN
SPREADING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE 2500 TO 3500 FEET IN THE CASCADES AND 3500 TO 4500 FEET IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE DEFICIENT SO
EXPECT FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES AND AN INCH
OR LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LOW
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND DEVELOPS A TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST. MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
BACK AT 3000 TO 4000 FEET BY SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH AT THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
OFFSHORE AND EXPANDING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE
TROUGH ASHORE SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY. BOTH SCENARIOS
LOOK WET FOR US SO HAVE IN GENERAL KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY LOOKS UNSTABLE IN THE GFS SO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THAT PERIOD. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, WOULD EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IS FOUND IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MID 40S TO MID 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MAINLY
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN ABOVE 20K FEET THOUGH SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z. AFTER 00Z MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 3500-7000
FEET AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL BEGIN AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 10-15 KTS WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT KDLS FROM 22Z-03Z. AFTER 12Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  56  35  55 /  20  50  20  30
ALW  49  58  40  57 /  20  40  20  30
PSC  46  63  38  62 /  10  30  10  30
YKM  42  60  34  59 /  20  20  10  30
HRI  45  62  37  60 /  10  30  10  30
ELN  42  56  33  55 /  20  20  10  30
RDM  37  51  24  50 /  20  40  10  40
LGD  43  53  34  51 /  20  60  20  40
GCD  39  50  29  50 /  10  50  20  30
DLS  46  60  39  59 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/83








000
FXUS66 KPDT 302139
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
239 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND NOON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME AM CONFIDENT
THAT THE KITTITAS VALLEY WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS MAY BECOME EQUALLY STRONG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN BLUES, THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL BE CAUSED BY ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
A TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND WEAK TEMPORARY RIDGING OVER THE
AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY
DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR AS YAKIMA AND ELLENSBURG DURING THE DAY THEN
SPREADING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE 2500 TO 3500 FEET IN THE CASCADES AND 3500 TO 4500 FEET IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE DEFICIENT SO
EXPECT FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN MOST PLACES AND AN INCH
OR LESS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LOW
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND DEVELOPS A TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST. MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
BACK AT 3000 TO 4000 FEET BY SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH AT THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING IT
OFFSHORE AND EXPANDING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE
TROUGH ASHORE SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY. BOTH SCENARIOS
LOOK WET FOR US SO HAVE IN GENERAL KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY LOOKS UNSTABLE IN THE GFS SO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THAT PERIOD. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, WOULD EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IS FOUND IN THE MODELS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MID 40S TO MID 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MAINLY
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN ABOVE 20K FEET THOUGH SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z. AFTER 00Z MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 3500-7000
FEET AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL BEGIN AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 10-15 KTS WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT KDLS FROM 22Z-03Z. AFTER 12Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  56  35  55 /  20  50  20  30
ALW  49  58  40  57 /  20  40  20  30
PSC  46  63  38  62 /  10  30  10  30
YKM  42  60  34  59 /  20  20  10  30
HRI  45  62  37  60 /  10  30  10  30
ELN  42  56  33  55 /  20  20  10  30
RDM  37  51  24  50 /  20  40  10  40
LGD  43  53  34  51 /  20  60  20  40
GCD  39  50  29  50 /  10  50  20  30
DLS  46  60  39  59 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/83








000
FXUS66 KMFR 302136
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
236 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A COLD
FRONT NEAR 130 WEST ADVANCING TOWARD THE COAST. WARM CONDITIONS
PRECEDE THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMTH WILL BE A FADING MEMORY TUESDAY AS A
MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVES IN OVERHEAD. WE CAN SEE EVIDENCE OF THE
COLD AIR MASS ALOFT WITH ALL THE COLD CORE CUMULUS CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BAND OF
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THE COAST TO
THE CASCADES. EAST OF THE CASCADES, PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
WILL DIMINISH TO ISO/SCT SHOWERS TUESDAY, BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AT
TIMES. BY FAR THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE THE 15-25 DEGREE
DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY TO TUESDAY. MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO MOIST
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INLAND. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND THE MAJOR PASSES (4500 FT) AND A SMALL
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS LIKELY ABOVE 5000 FEET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY AS THE POOL
OF SUB -30C AIR AT 500 MB GRAZES THE AREA. GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND SHOWERS WILL RETREAT BACK TO AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
EXPECT ENOUGH DRYING TO ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT..A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SHASTA VALLEY. CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY BREAK AT TIMES IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY TOO...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL FREEZE THRESHOLDS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY REINFORCING THE CHILLY AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WON`T BE AS MOIST, SO SHOWERS WON`T BE
AS NUMEROUS, BUT STILL EXPECT SOME OUT THERE, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN, THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE
UNSTABLE, SO ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING THUNDER ALONG WITH GRAUPEL/SMALL
HAIL.

ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IN OREGON WEST OF THE CASCADES MAY BE
NECESSARY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN, THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD-COVER
WILL LESSEN. RIGHT NOW, THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A FREEZE IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SPILDE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
EXCEPTION IS OUR NW CORNER IN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES. TIMING IS SIMILAR ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
THE GFS SHOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNT. THEREFORE
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE SOME RAIN THERE
ON FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE CLEARING SKIES MAY ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DIP CLOSER  TO
FREEZING FOR THE RURAL AREA OF ROGUE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL CONSISTENT AT DROPPING A
BROAD TROUGH INTO THE EASTER PACIFIC AND THE WEST COAST. WE`RE
CONTINUING TO STEER WITH THE COOLER AND SHOWERY FORECAST. BOTH
MODELS MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH THE ECMWF PLACING THE LOW
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A MORE SW FLOW INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...WHEREAS
THE GFS PLACES THE TROUGH RIGHT OVER THE PAC NW. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON AMOUNT TO PUT MORE THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THE MOMENT. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO THE COAST THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES WITH COVERAGE BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH
COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS RAIN ARRIVES THERE.
AS RAIN SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT..EXPECT
LCL MVFR CIGS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. EAST OF
THE CASCADES..GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING. CLOUDS BASE WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH
WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER THE WHOLE AREA...BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE LIMITED
TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE ARAGO AND BEYOND 10NM OFFSHORE. THE SMALL
CRAFT SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL WITH THE
PERIOD AROUND 14 SECONDS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...BUT
IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
  5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370-376.

$$

MAS/FJB/NSK



000
FXUS66 KPQR 302100
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
200 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL
AND UNSTABLE TROUGH OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THU FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS REMAINED ALONG THE S WA AND
JUST OFF THE N OREGON COASTLINE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD
FRONT SEEN IN SATELLITE PICS EXTENDING FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND S PAST
40N 130W. AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING EXPECT MARINE CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK IN...WITH THE FRONT
FOLLOWING AND REACHING THE COAST LATE EVENING...AND FINALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTALBAND SEEN IN SATELLITE
PICS WAS FAIRLY NARROW...BUT MOISTURE APPEARED SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO
JUSTIFY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT.

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TUE...
WITH H5 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 32C. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY DEEP
LAYER OF INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY ON THE
ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN TUE...BUT AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY POPS LOOK
INLINE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FT TUE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST OROGRAPHICS EARLY ON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS...BUT IT MAY BE
CLOSE. WITH MODEL H8 TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS WED...BRINGING ANOTHER COOL POOL
ALOFT. GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW AN AIRMASS WED
AFTERNOON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW. WILL STILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO BE REDUCED FROM TUE.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SWING IN A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERALL. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE DIRECTION THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES...THE GFS SHOWS IT MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
IT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVING INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIF AT
THE SAME TIME. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /27
&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT SITTING NEAR 130W WILL PUSH EAST THIS
EVENING. IT REACHES THE COAST AROUND 04Z AND CROSSES I-5 AROUND
06Z WITH A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF EMBEDDED MODERATE RAIN AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THEN...EXPECT A MVFR
DECK AROUND 025 MSL TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT AND REMAIN THROUGH
31/18Z UNDER TRAILING SHOWERS. INSTABILITY INCREASES FURTHER
AFTER 31/18Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW COLD CORE BECOMES POSITIONED OVER
THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF THUNDER...WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL TO
BE EMBEDDED UNDER THE STRONGER CELLS ON TUESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. PREFRONTAL
CIGS AROUND 040 DEVELOP NEAR 03Z AND THEN FALL TO AROUND 020 WITH
AND AFTER THE FRONTAL CROSSING NEAR 06Z. EXPECT A BRIEF BURST OF
20 TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSING. MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH. SHOWERS
STRENGTHEN TOWARD MID-DAY WITH SMALL HAIL CHANCES INCREASING AT
THE FIELD ALONG WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR 130W WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ABOUT TO BEGIN CLIPPING THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS. WILL SEE WINDS PEAK WITH GUSTS 25-28 KT REACH THE OUTER
WATERS AS THE FRONT CROSSES 5 TO 7 PM AND FOR THE INNER WATERS 6
TO 9 PM. SEAS HAVE REMAINED AROUND THE 10 FT HEIGHT AND WILL BRIEFLY
DROP BELOW CRITERIA TO 9 FT. DID NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT TIME BELOW CRITERIA TO JUSTIFY BREAKING UP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. ANOTHER WESTERLY SWELL WILL RETURN IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING WIND WAVES LOFTING SEAS BACK ABOVE 10 FT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL
CROSSING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY HIT 12-13 FT DURING THE MAX WINDS THEN
EASE BACK TO AROUND 10 FT THROUGH TUESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY WITH EMBEDDED HAIL INSIDE OF SHOWERS HOLDING AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG WITH REGARDS TO WIND WITH MAYBE
A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 5 PM PDT
     THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 302052
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
252 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST
TIME WE SEE VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR AWHILE...AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING WINDY
BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS /SUSTAINED 30
MPH AND/OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH/ LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY /SOUTHEAST OF BOISE/ INTO
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3000 FEET
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD BOTH DAYS...COOLING TO
BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECTING AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MID TO LONG RANGE FORECASTS. THE FIRST
TROUGH WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION...AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDER TO THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY DRY WEATHER AND A GENERAL WARMING
TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE A
CLOSED-LOW SYSTEM. THIS WILL AFFECT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BEST
CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4-6 KFT FOR THE
DURATION OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 31/18Z BRINGING
GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SOUTHWEST 15-25
KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....EP/AB
AVIATION.....EP/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 302052
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
252 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST
TIME WE SEE VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR AWHILE...AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING WINDY
BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS /SUSTAINED 30
MPH AND/OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH/ LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY /SOUTHEAST OF BOISE/ INTO
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3000 FEET
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD BOTH DAYS...COOLING TO
BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECTING AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MID TO LONG RANGE FORECASTS. THE FIRST
TROUGH WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION...AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDER TO THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY DRY WEATHER AND A GENERAL WARMING
TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE A
CLOSED-LOW SYSTEM. THIS WILL AFFECT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BEST
CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4-6 KFT FOR THE
DURATION OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 31/18Z BRINGING
GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SOUTHWEST 15-25
KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....EP/AB
AVIATION.....EP/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 302052
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
252 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST
TIME WE SEE VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR AWHILE...AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING WINDY
BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS /SUSTAINED 30
MPH AND/OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH/ LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY /SOUTHEAST OF BOISE/ INTO
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3000 FEET
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD BOTH DAYS...COOLING TO
BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECTING AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MID TO LONG RANGE FORECASTS. THE FIRST
TROUGH WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION...AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDER TO THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY DRY WEATHER AND A GENERAL WARMING
TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE A
CLOSED-LOW SYSTEM. THIS WILL AFFECT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BEST
CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4-6 KFT FOR THE
DURATION OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 31/18Z BRINGING
GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SOUTHWEST 15-25
KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....EP/AB
AVIATION.....EP/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 302052
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
252 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST
TIME WE SEE VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR AWHILE...AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING WINDY
BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS /SUSTAINED 30
MPH AND/OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH/ LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY /SOUTHEAST OF BOISE/ INTO
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3000 FEET
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD BOTH DAYS...COOLING TO
BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECTING AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MID TO LONG RANGE FORECASTS. THE FIRST
TROUGH WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION...AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDER TO THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY DRY WEATHER AND A GENERAL WARMING
TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE A
CLOSED-LOW SYSTEM. THIS WILL AFFECT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BEST
CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4-6 KFT FOR THE
DURATION OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER 31/18Z BRINGING
GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SOUTHWEST 15-25
KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....EP/AB
AVIATION.....EP/AB




000
FXUS66 KPDT 301744 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1044 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS
A PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH
THE AREA WILL BE FAIR AND DRY TODAY. WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS, THOUGH SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES LATE IN THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. OVERALL THE FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THESE TRENDS.
UPDATES THIS MORNING CONSISTED OF WARMING SOME HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WINDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
FOR THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE
PLACE WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COAST. GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM INLAND ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST...PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA. OVERALL BOTH MODELS
INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED OVER THE
AREA...SO POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. ECMWF WOULD
SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...BUT NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...AS SEVERAL AREAS BELOW 1500 FEET COULD REACH OR FALL
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WHILE IT MAY BE THE EARLY PART OF THE
GROWING SEASON SOME CROPS MAY BE STARTING EARLY...AND PRECAUTIONS
MAY BE NEEDED TO PROTECT THEM FROM A FREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CEILINGS TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 20K FEET
THOUGH SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z. AFTER
00Z MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 3500-7000 FEET AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN AFTER
15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 10-15 KTS WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT KDLS FROM 22Z-03Z.
AFTER 12Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  44  55  36 /   0  10  40  10
ALW  73  45  56  39 /   0  10  40  10
PSC  74  46  60  38 /   0  10  30  10
YKM  72  42  56  33 /   0  20  30  10
HRI  73  44  59  37 /   0  10  40  10
ELN  71  40  53  32 /   0  20  30  10
RDM  73  38  48  26 /   0  20  40  10
LGD  70  40  50  32 /   0  10  50  20
GCD  73  34  49  29 /   0  10  40  20
DLS  73  46  56  37 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 301744 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1044 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS
A PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH
THE AREA WILL BE FAIR AND DRY TODAY. WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS, THOUGH SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES LATE IN THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. OVERALL THE FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THESE TRENDS.
UPDATES THIS MORNING CONSISTED OF WARMING SOME HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WINDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
FOR THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE
PLACE WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COAST. GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM INLAND ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST...PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA. OVERALL BOTH MODELS
INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED OVER THE
AREA...SO POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. ECMWF WOULD
SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...BUT NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...AS SEVERAL AREAS BELOW 1500 FEET COULD REACH OR FALL
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WHILE IT MAY BE THE EARLY PART OF THE
GROWING SEASON SOME CROPS MAY BE STARTING EARLY...AND PRECAUTIONS
MAY BE NEEDED TO PROTECT THEM FROM A FREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CEILINGS TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 20K FEET
THOUGH SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z. AFTER
00Z MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 3500-7000 FEET AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN AFTER
15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 10-15 KTS WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT KDLS FROM 22Z-03Z.
AFTER 12Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  44  55  36 /   0  10  40  10
ALW  73  45  56  39 /   0  10  40  10
PSC  74  46  60  38 /   0  10  30  10
YKM  72  42  56  33 /   0  20  30  10
HRI  73  44  59  37 /   0  10  40  10
ELN  71  40  53  32 /   0  20  30  10
RDM  73  38  48  26 /   0  20  40  10
LGD  70  40  50  32 /   0  10  50  20
GCD  73  34  49  29 /   0  10  40  20
DLS  73  46  56  37 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/83






000
FXUS66 KPDT 301744 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1044 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS
A PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH
THE AREA WILL BE FAIR AND DRY TODAY. WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS, THOUGH SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES LATE IN THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. OVERALL THE FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THESE TRENDS.
UPDATES THIS MORNING CONSISTED OF WARMING SOME HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WINDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
FOR THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE
PLACE WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COAST. GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM INLAND ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST...PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA. OVERALL BOTH MODELS
INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED OVER THE
AREA...SO POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. ECMWF WOULD
SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...BUT NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...AS SEVERAL AREAS BELOW 1500 FEET COULD REACH OR FALL
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WHILE IT MAY BE THE EARLY PART OF THE
GROWING SEASON SOME CROPS MAY BE STARTING EARLY...AND PRECAUTIONS
MAY BE NEEDED TO PROTECT THEM FROM A FREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CEILINGS TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 20K FEET
THOUGH SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z. AFTER
00Z MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 3500-7000 FEET AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN AFTER
15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 10-15 KTS WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT KDLS FROM 22Z-03Z.
AFTER 12Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  44  55  36 /   0  10  40  10
ALW  73  45  56  39 /   0  10  40  10
PSC  74  46  60  38 /   0  10  30  10
YKM  72  42  56  33 /   0  20  30  10
HRI  73  44  59  37 /   0  10  40  10
ELN  71  40  53  32 /   0  20  30  10
RDM  73  38  48  26 /   0  20  40  10
LGD  70  40  50  32 /   0  10  50  20
GCD  73  34  49  29 /   0  10  40  20
DLS  73  46  56  37 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/83






000
FXUS66 KPDT 301744 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1044 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS
A PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH
THE AREA WILL BE FAIR AND DRY TODAY. WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS, THOUGH SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES LATE IN THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. OVERALL THE FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THESE TRENDS.
UPDATES THIS MORNING CONSISTED OF WARMING SOME HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WINDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
FOR THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE
PLACE WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COAST. GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM INLAND ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST...PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA. OVERALL BOTH MODELS
INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED OVER THE
AREA...SO POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. ECMWF WOULD
SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...BUT NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...AS SEVERAL AREAS BELOW 1500 FEET COULD REACH OR FALL
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WHILE IT MAY BE THE EARLY PART OF THE
GROWING SEASON SOME CROPS MAY BE STARTING EARLY...AND PRECAUTIONS
MAY BE NEEDED TO PROTECT THEM FROM A FREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CEILINGS TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 20K FEET
THOUGH SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z. AFTER
00Z MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 3500-7000 FEET AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN AFTER
15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF 10-15 KTS WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT KDLS FROM 22Z-03Z.
AFTER 12Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  44  55  36 /   0  10  40  10
ALW  73  45  56  39 /   0  10  40  10
PSC  74  46  60  38 /   0  10  30  10
YKM  72  42  56  33 /   0  20  30  10
HRI  73  44  59  37 /   0  10  40  10
ELN  71  40  53  32 /   0  20  30  10
RDM  73  38  48  26 /   0  20  40  10
LGD  70  40  50  32 /   0  10  50  20
GCD  73  34  49  29 /   0  10  40  20
DLS  73  46  56  37 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 301617
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
917 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS
A PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH
THE AREA WILL BE FAIR AND DRY TODAY. WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS, THOUGH SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES LATE IN THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. OVERALL THE FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THESE TRENDS.
UPDATES THIS MORNING CONSISTED OF WARMING SOME HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WINDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
FOR THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE
PLACE WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COAST. GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM INLAND ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST...PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA. OVERALL BOTH MODELS
INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED OVER THE
AREA...SO POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. ECMWF WOULD
SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...BUT NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...AS SEVERAL AREAS BELOW 1500 FEET COULD REACH OR FALL
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WHILE IT MAY BE THE EARLY PART OF THE
GROWING SEASON SOME CROPS MAY BE STARTING EARLY...AND PRECAUTIONS
MAY BE NEEDED TO PROTECT THEM FROM A FREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 15K FEET THOUGH SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 20Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS WILL REACH 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  44  55  36 /   0  10  40  10
ALW  73  45  56  39 /   0  10  40  10
PSC  74  46  60  38 /   0  10  30  10
YKM  72  42  56  33 /   0  20  30  10
HRI  73  44  59  37 /   0  10  40  10
ELN  71  40  53  32 /   0  20  30  10
RDM  73  38  48  26 /   0  20  40  10
LGD  70  40  50  32 /   0  10  50  20
GCD  73  34  49  29 /   0  10  40  20
DLS  73  46  56  37 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 301617
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
917 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS
A PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH
THE AREA WILL BE FAIR AND DRY TODAY. WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS, THOUGH SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES LATE IN THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. OVERALL THE FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THESE TRENDS.
UPDATES THIS MORNING CONSISTED OF WARMING SOME HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WINDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
FOR THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE
PLACE WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COAST. GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM INLAND ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST...PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA. OVERALL BOTH MODELS
INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED OVER THE
AREA...SO POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. ECMWF WOULD
SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...BUT NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...AS SEVERAL AREAS BELOW 1500 FEET COULD REACH OR FALL
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WHILE IT MAY BE THE EARLY PART OF THE
GROWING SEASON SOME CROPS MAY BE STARTING EARLY...AND PRECAUTIONS
MAY BE NEEDED TO PROTECT THEM FROM A FREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 15K FEET THOUGH SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 20Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS WILL REACH 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  44  55  36 /   0  10  40  10
ALW  73  45  56  39 /   0  10  40  10
PSC  74  46  60  38 /   0  10  30  10
YKM  72  42  56  33 /   0  20  30  10
HRI  73  44  59  37 /   0  10  40  10
ELN  71  40  53  32 /   0  20  30  10
RDM  73  38  48  26 /   0  20  40  10
LGD  70  40  50  32 /   0  10  50  20
GCD  73  34  49  29 /   0  10  40  20
DLS  73  46  56  37 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 301617
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
917 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS
A PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH
THE AREA WILL BE FAIR AND DRY TODAY. WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS, THOUGH SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES LATE IN THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. OVERALL THE FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THESE TRENDS.
UPDATES THIS MORNING CONSISTED OF WARMING SOME HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WINDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
FOR THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE
PLACE WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COAST. GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM INLAND ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST...PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA. OVERALL BOTH MODELS
INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED OVER THE
AREA...SO POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. ECMWF WOULD
SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...BUT NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...AS SEVERAL AREAS BELOW 1500 FEET COULD REACH OR FALL
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WHILE IT MAY BE THE EARLY PART OF THE
GROWING SEASON SOME CROPS MAY BE STARTING EARLY...AND PRECAUTIONS
MAY BE NEEDED TO PROTECT THEM FROM A FREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 15K FEET THOUGH SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 20Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS WILL REACH 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  44  55  36 /   0  10  40  10
ALW  73  45  56  39 /   0  10  40  10
PSC  74  46  60  38 /   0  10  30  10
YKM  72  42  56  33 /   0  20  30  10
HRI  73  44  59  37 /   0  10  40  10
ELN  71  40  53  32 /   0  20  30  10
RDM  73  38  48  26 /   0  20  40  10
LGD  70  40  50  32 /   0  10  50  20
GCD  73  34  49  29 /   0  10  40  20
DLS  73  46  56  37 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 301617
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
917 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS
A PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH
THE AREA WILL BE FAIR AND DRY TODAY. WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS, THOUGH SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES LATE IN THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. OVERALL THE FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLED THESE TRENDS.
UPDATES THIS MORNING CONSISTED OF WARMING SOME HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WINDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
FOR THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE
PLACE WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COAST. GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM INLAND ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST...PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA. OVERALL BOTH MODELS
INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED OVER THE
AREA...SO POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. ECMWF WOULD
SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...BUT NO THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING...AS SEVERAL AREAS BELOW 1500 FEET COULD REACH OR FALL
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WHILE IT MAY BE THE EARLY PART OF THE
GROWING SEASON SOME CROPS MAY BE STARTING EARLY...AND PRECAUTIONS
MAY BE NEEDED TO PROTECT THEM FROM A FREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 15K FEET THOUGH SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 20Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS WILL REACH 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  72  44  55  36 /   0  10  40  10
ALW  73  45  56  39 /   0  10  40  10
PSC  74  46  60  38 /   0  10  30  10
YKM  72  42  56  33 /   0  20  30  10
HRI  73  44  59  37 /   0  10  40  10
ELN  71  40  53  32 /   0  20  30  10
RDM  73  38  48  26 /   0  20  40  10
LGD  70  40  50  32 /   0  10  50  20
GCD  73  34  49  29 /   0  10  40  20
DLS  73  46  56  37 /   0  20  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/83







000
FXUS66 KMFR 301609
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
909 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATE IS NECESSARY THIS MORNING...THIS WILL BE
THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE WARM WEATHER HEADS OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS...EVEN OVER THE
EAST SIDE AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. EXPECT SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
BREEZES TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE COAST BY LATE EVENING, THEN INLAND
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO WEST-NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-25 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY ARE TODAY. A
FREEZE WATCH IS OUT FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TODAY, WE`LL BE EVALUATING FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
IFR CIGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...THEN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED. MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER
TONIGHT. FROM THE CASCADES WEST EXCEPT FOR THE COAST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...THEN AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS IN RAIN WILL DEVELOP AROUND 31/04Z NEAR THE COAST WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND
TO THE CASCADES BY 31/10Z. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
BECOME OBSCURED. SPILDE/STOCKTON

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER THE WHOLE AREA...BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE ARAGO AND BEYOND 10NM OFFSHORE. THE
SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST
SWELL...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. STOCKTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS EXPECT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND MAY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR AWAY FROM THE COAST AS WERE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY, AT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP IS EXPECTED AS A
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE POINT-AND-CLICK FORECAST
FOR DETAILS SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. IN SHORT, TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL 15 TO 25 DEGREES FOR HIGHS BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON TUESDAY. WE EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING
TO AROUND 5KFT TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENT IMPACTS FOR TUESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE POSSIBLE CONTAINMENT CHALLENGES TO PRESCRIBED
BURNING IN AREAS THAT SEE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION, MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. ALSO, ANYONE
CAMPING OR PLANNING TO SUMMIT THE PEAKS OF THE CASCADES WILL BE
IMPACTED BY SOME SNOWFALL AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS. THERE IS
ALSO LIKELY TO BE SOME MINIMAL SNOW IMPACT ON ROADS ABOVE 5KFT
SUCH AS AROUND CRATER LAKE AND DIAMOND LAKE JUNCTION ON TUESDAY,
THOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT
ROADSIDE...AND LIKELY LESSER AMOUNTS ON THE ROADS.

I`VE RETAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH 500MB TEMPERATURE AROUND
-30C EXPECT THAT EVEN STRONGER SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN
GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL, AT TIMES, DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 30F WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS THE AIR MASS IS EASILY
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER MOST WEST
SIDE VALLEYS IF IT WERE CLEAR AND CALM. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO BE AROUND, AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS. THESE ARE LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE 30F IN
THE CRITICAL AGRICULTURAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT A
SMALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. TO THE
LEE OF THE CASCADES, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, THE FREEZE THREAT IS
HIGHEST ON THESE TWO MORNINGS.

FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH FRESH SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS THERE WILL BE A VERY REAL THREAT OF A DAMAGING FREEZE
ACROSS MOST WEST SIDE VALLEY AREAS.

SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
DETAILS. IN SHORT, ENSEMBLES SHOW A GROWING POSSIBILITY OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS PACKING MORE MOISTURE WHEN THEY DO ARRIVE IN THE 6 TO 14
DAY TIME FRAME. DETAILS ON TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF
SHORT WAVES DIFFER, SO, FOR NOW HAVE ENTERED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. WE`LL
FINE TUNE WHEN THE GUIDANCE ALLOWS FOR THAT. IN SHORT, COOLER THAN
NORMAL AND NEAR SEASONABLY WET SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE 6-14 DAY
TIME PERIOD, WHICH IS SATURDAY THE 4TH THROUGH SATURDAY THE 11TH
OF APRIL. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
 FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/BTL/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 301609
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
909 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATE IS NECESSARY THIS MORNING...THIS WILL BE
THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE WARM WEATHER HEADS OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS...EVEN OVER THE
EAST SIDE AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. EXPECT SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
BREEZES TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST AND SPREAD RAIN INTO THE COAST BY LATE EVENING, THEN INLAND
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO WEST-NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-25 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY ARE TODAY. A
FREEZE WATCH IS OUT FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TODAY, WE`LL BE EVALUATING FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
IFR CIGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...THEN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED. MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER
TONIGHT. FROM THE CASCADES WEST EXCEPT FOR THE COAST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING...THEN AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS IN RAIN WILL DEVELOP AROUND 31/04Z NEAR THE COAST WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND
TO THE CASCADES BY 31/10Z. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
BECOME OBSCURED. SPILDE/STOCKTON

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER THE WHOLE AREA...BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE ARAGO AND BEYOND 10NM OFFSHORE. THE
SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST
SWELL...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. STOCKTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS EXPECT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND MAY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR AWAY FROM THE COAST AS WERE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY, AT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP IS EXPECTED AS A
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE POINT-AND-CLICK FORECAST
FOR DETAILS SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. IN SHORT, TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL 15 TO 25 DEGREES FOR HIGHS BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON TUESDAY. WE EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING
TO AROUND 5KFT TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENT IMPACTS FOR TUESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE POSSIBLE CONTAINMENT CHALLENGES TO PRESCRIBED
BURNING IN AREAS THAT SEE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION, MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. ALSO, ANYONE
CAMPING OR PLANNING TO SUMMIT THE PEAKS OF THE CASCADES WILL BE
IMPACTED BY SOME SNOWFALL AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS. THERE IS
ALSO LIKELY TO BE SOME MINIMAL SNOW IMPACT ON ROADS ABOVE 5KFT
SUCH AS AROUND CRATER LAKE AND DIAMOND LAKE JUNCTION ON TUESDAY,
THOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT
ROADSIDE...AND LIKELY LESSER AMOUNTS ON THE ROADS.

I`VE RETAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH 500MB TEMPERATURE AROUND
-30C EXPECT THAT EVEN STRONGER SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN
GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL, AT TIMES, DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 30F WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS THE AIR MASS IS EASILY
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER MOST WEST
SIDE VALLEYS IF IT WERE CLEAR AND CALM. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO BE AROUND, AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS. THESE ARE LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE 30F IN
THE CRITICAL AGRICULTURAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT A
SMALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. TO THE
LEE OF THE CASCADES, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, THE FREEZE THREAT IS
HIGHEST ON THESE TWO MORNINGS.

FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH FRESH SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS THERE WILL BE A VERY REAL THREAT OF A DAMAGING FREEZE
ACROSS MOST WEST SIDE VALLEY AREAS.

SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
DETAILS. IN SHORT, ENSEMBLES SHOW A GROWING POSSIBILITY OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS PACKING MORE MOISTURE WHEN THEY DO ARRIVE IN THE 6 TO 14
DAY TIME FRAME. DETAILS ON TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF
SHORT WAVES DIFFER, SO, FOR NOW HAVE ENTERED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. WE`LL
FINE TUNE WHEN THE GUIDANCE ALLOWS FOR THAT. IN SHORT, COOLER THAN
NORMAL AND NEAR SEASONABLY WET SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE 6-14 DAY
TIME PERIOD, WHICH IS SATURDAY THE 4TH THROUGH SATURDAY THE 11TH
OF APRIL. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
 FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/BTL/JRS



000
FXUS66 KPQR 301602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
902 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
DAYTIME TODAY A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT USHERING IN A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ANY RAIN ALONG
THE S WA COAST HAD ENDED THIS MORNING AS THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
HAS BEGUN TO AMPLIFY WITH THE INLAND RIDGE BUILDING AND THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE DIGGING. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...AND A FAIRLY SOLID AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS A LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING SUGGESTING INLAND CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF
THIS MORNING...WHILE ALONG THE COAST THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY BREAK
UP OF THE CLOUDS BEFORE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW LATE TODAY FILLS THE
CLOUDS BACK IN AT THE END OF THE DAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINED IN A
MILD AIR MASS WITH H8 TEMPS AT SLE AT 12Z AROUND 4C. INLAND CLOUDS
MAY PROVIDE A SLOW START TO TEMPS RISING EARLY TODAY BUT LIKELY WILL
STILL SEE SUFFICIENT SUN THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING TEMPS CLOSE TO
YESTERDAYS HIGHS. ALONG THE COAST THE MORNING STRATUS AND AFTERNOON
ONSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT TEMPS TO 55 TO 60 RANGE.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE
TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL
ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE
WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND
4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING
PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH OF MIDWEEK IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION
THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH
UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS
ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE
FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN
OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP
THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.
.AVIATION...A RADIATIONALLY COOLED MARINE STRATUS LAYER FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING AND IS APPEARING
IN SOME FORM AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KTTD. PILOT REPORTS
INDICATE IT IS ABOUT 800 FEET THICK WITH TOPS 011 TO 014 AGL. A
VERY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS KEEPING IT MOSTLY CONFINED FROM THE
WILLAMETTE RIVER AND WEST THROUGH THE VALLEY. KEUG IS ON THE FRINGE
OF THE DECK AND THEY MAY GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO MIX
THE CLOUDS UP BEFORE THEY GET TOO THICK. OTHERWISE...LOCAL SINGLE
COLUMN MODEL INDICATES A BREAKUP AROUND 18Z BUT GIVEN THE FACT
THE STRATUS DOES NOT COVER THE ENTIRE VALLEY...WILL NUDGE AN HOUR
EARLIER DUE TO SUN SNEAKING UNDERNEATH FROM THE EAST.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNDER THAT MARINE STRATUS INFLUENCE
BUT BEGIN TO LIFT SOME TOWARDS AFTERNOON WHEN PREFRONTAL WINDS AND
INSTABILITY REACH THE COAST.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND 04Z AND CROSSES I-5 AROUND
06Z WITH A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF EMBEDDED MODERATE RAIN AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS. THEN EXPECT A MVFR DECK
AROUND 025 MSL TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN THROUGH 31/18Z UNDER
TRAILING SHOWERS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN THROUGH 17Z.
PREFRONTAL CIGS AROUND 040 DEVELOP NEAR 03Z AND THEN FALL TO
AROUND 020 WITH AND AFTER THE FRONTAL CROSSING NEAR 06Z. EXPECT A
BRIEF BURST OF 20 TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSING.
MVFR CIGS THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY DELAYED AGAIN AND A BIT WEAKER WITH
THE MORNING MODEL RUNS BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH TO ALTER THE
TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS. WILL SEE PEAK WINDS
WITH GUSTS 25-28 KT REACH THE OUTER WATERS AS THE FRONT CROSSES 5
TO 7 PM AND FOR THE INNER WATERS 6 TO 9 PM. SEAS HAVE REMAINED
AROUND THE 10 FT HEIGHT AND MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW CRITERIA TO 9
FT BUT DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TIME TO JUSTIFY
BREAKING UP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS GIVEN ANOTHER
WESTERLY SWELL WILL RETURN PLUS INCREASING WIND WAVES WILL LOFT
THEM BACK ABOVE 10 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE FRONTAL CROSSING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY HIT 12-13 FT DURING
THE MAX WINDS THEN EASE BACK TO AROUND 10 FT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY
SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. JBONK/MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
902 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
DAYTIME TODAY A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT USHERING IN A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ANY RAIN ALONG
THE S WA COAST HAD ENDED THIS MORNING AS THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
HAS BEGUN TO AMPLIFY WITH THE INLAND RIDGE BUILDING AND THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE DIGGING. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...AND A FAIRLY SOLID AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS A LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING SUGGESTING INLAND CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF
THIS MORNING...WHILE ALONG THE COAST THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY BREAK
UP OF THE CLOUDS BEFORE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW LATE TODAY FILLS THE
CLOUDS BACK IN AT THE END OF THE DAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINED IN A
MILD AIR MASS WITH H8 TEMPS AT SLE AT 12Z AROUND 4C. INLAND CLOUDS
MAY PROVIDE A SLOW START TO TEMPS RISING EARLY TODAY BUT LIKELY WILL
STILL SEE SUFFICIENT SUN THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING TEMPS CLOSE TO
YESTERDAYS HIGHS. ALONG THE COAST THE MORNING STRATUS AND AFTERNOON
ONSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT TEMPS TO 55 TO 60 RANGE.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE
TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL
ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE
WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND
4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING
PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH OF MIDWEEK IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION
THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH
UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS
ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE
FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN
OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP
THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.
.AVIATION...A RADIATIONALLY COOLED MARINE STRATUS LAYER FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING AND IS APPEARING
IN SOME FORM AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KTTD. PILOT REPORTS
INDICATE IT IS ABOUT 800 FEET THICK WITH TOPS 011 TO 014 AGL. A
VERY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS KEEPING IT MOSTLY CONFINED FROM THE
WILLAMETTE RIVER AND WEST THROUGH THE VALLEY. KEUG IS ON THE FRINGE
OF THE DECK AND THEY MAY GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO MIX
THE CLOUDS UP BEFORE THEY GET TOO THICK. OTHERWISE...LOCAL SINGLE
COLUMN MODEL INDICATES A BREAKUP AROUND 18Z BUT GIVEN THE FACT
THE STRATUS DOES NOT COVER THE ENTIRE VALLEY...WILL NUDGE AN HOUR
EARLIER DUE TO SUN SNEAKING UNDERNEATH FROM THE EAST.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNDER THAT MARINE STRATUS INFLUENCE
BUT BEGIN TO LIFT SOME TOWARDS AFTERNOON WHEN PREFRONTAL WINDS AND
INSTABILITY REACH THE COAST.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND 04Z AND CROSSES I-5 AROUND
06Z WITH A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF EMBEDDED MODERATE RAIN AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS. THEN EXPECT A MVFR DECK
AROUND 025 MSL TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN THROUGH 31/18Z UNDER
TRAILING SHOWERS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN THROUGH 17Z.
PREFRONTAL CIGS AROUND 040 DEVELOP NEAR 03Z AND THEN FALL TO
AROUND 020 WITH AND AFTER THE FRONTAL CROSSING NEAR 06Z. EXPECT A
BRIEF BURST OF 20 TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSING.
MVFR CIGS THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY DELAYED AGAIN AND A BIT WEAKER WITH
THE MORNING MODEL RUNS BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH TO ALTER THE
TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS. WILL SEE PEAK WINDS
WITH GUSTS 25-28 KT REACH THE OUTER WATERS AS THE FRONT CROSSES 5
TO 7 PM AND FOR THE INNER WATERS 6 TO 9 PM. SEAS HAVE REMAINED
AROUND THE 10 FT HEIGHT AND MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW CRITERIA TO 9
FT BUT DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TIME TO JUSTIFY
BREAKING UP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS GIVEN ANOTHER
WESTERLY SWELL WILL RETURN PLUS INCREASING WIND WAVES WILL LOFT
THEM BACK ABOVE 10 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE FRONTAL CROSSING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY HIT 12-13 FT DURING
THE MAX WINDS THEN EASE BACK TO AROUND 10 FT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY
SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. JBONK/MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 301602
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
902 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
DAYTIME TODAY A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT USHERING IN A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ANY RAIN ALONG
THE S WA COAST HAD ENDED THIS MORNING AS THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
HAS BEGUN TO AMPLIFY WITH THE INLAND RIDGE BUILDING AND THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE DIGGING. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...AND A FAIRLY SOLID AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS A LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING SUGGESTING INLAND CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF
THIS MORNING...WHILE ALONG THE COAST THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY BREAK
UP OF THE CLOUDS BEFORE A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW LATE TODAY FILLS THE
CLOUDS BACK IN AT THE END OF THE DAY. FORECAST AREA REMAINED IN A
MILD AIR MASS WITH H8 TEMPS AT SLE AT 12Z AROUND 4C. INLAND CLOUDS
MAY PROVIDE A SLOW START TO TEMPS RISING EARLY TODAY BUT LIKELY WILL
STILL SEE SUFFICIENT SUN THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING TEMPS CLOSE TO
YESTERDAYS HIGHS. ALONG THE COAST THE MORNING STRATUS AND AFTERNOON
ONSHORE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT TEMPS TO 55 TO 60 RANGE.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE
TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL
ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE
WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND
4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING
PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH OF MIDWEEK IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION
THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH
UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS
ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE
FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN
OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP
THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.
.AVIATION...A RADIATIONALLY COOLED MARINE STRATUS LAYER FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING AND IS APPEARING
IN SOME FORM AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KTTD. PILOT REPORTS
INDICATE IT IS ABOUT 800 FEET THICK WITH TOPS 011 TO 014 AGL. A
VERY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS KEEPING IT MOSTLY CONFINED FROM THE
WILLAMETTE RIVER AND WEST THROUGH THE VALLEY. KEUG IS ON THE FRINGE
OF THE DECK AND THEY MAY GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TO MIX
THE CLOUDS UP BEFORE THEY GET TOO THICK. OTHERWISE...LOCAL SINGLE
COLUMN MODEL INDICATES A BREAKUP AROUND 18Z BUT GIVEN THE FACT
THE STRATUS DOES NOT COVER THE ENTIRE VALLEY...WILL NUDGE AN HOUR
EARLIER DUE TO SUN SNEAKING UNDERNEATH FROM THE EAST.

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNDER THAT MARINE STRATUS INFLUENCE
BUT BEGIN TO LIFT SOME TOWARDS AFTERNOON WHEN PREFRONTAL WINDS AND
INSTABILITY REACH THE COAST.

COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND 04Z AND CROSSES I-5 AROUND
06Z WITH A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF EMBEDDED MODERATE RAIN AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT AT ALL LOCATIONS. THEN EXPECT A MVFR DECK
AROUND 025 MSL TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN THROUGH 31/18Z UNDER
TRAILING SHOWERS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN THROUGH 17Z.
PREFRONTAL CIGS AROUND 040 DEVELOP NEAR 03Z AND THEN FALL TO
AROUND 020 WITH AND AFTER THE FRONTAL CROSSING NEAR 06Z. EXPECT A
BRIEF BURST OF 20 TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSING.
MVFR CIGS THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY DELAYED AGAIN AND A BIT WEAKER WITH
THE MORNING MODEL RUNS BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH TO ALTER THE
TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS. WILL SEE PEAK WINDS
WITH GUSTS 25-28 KT REACH THE OUTER WATERS AS THE FRONT CROSSES 5
TO 7 PM AND FOR THE INNER WATERS 6 TO 9 PM. SEAS HAVE REMAINED
AROUND THE 10 FT HEIGHT AND MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW CRITERIA TO 9
FT BUT DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TIME TO JUSTIFY
BREAKING UP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS GIVEN ANOTHER
WESTERLY SWELL WILL RETURN PLUS INCREASING WIND WAVES WILL LOFT
THEM BACK ABOVE 10 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE FRONTAL CROSSING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY HIT 12-13 FT DURING
THE MAX WINDS THEN EASE BACK TO AROUND 10 FT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY
SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. JBONK/MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 301518
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
918 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING IN BY AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. FORECAST
IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECASTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TEMPS
RISING TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
UNDER UPPER RIDGE.  UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS EAST OF US TONIGHT AS A
MODERATELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH COMES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN OREGON SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND WESTERN IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS.  HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE A
FULL 20 DEGS LOWER THAN TODAY IN OREGON ZONES AND 10 TO 20 DEGS
LOWER THAN TODAY IN IDAHO ZONES...WITH THE LEAST COOLING IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO. SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY IN NRN AND CENTRAL ZONES...
BUT FEW OR NONE SOUTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN IDAHO MOUNTAIN
ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE SNAKE BASIN MUCH AS THEY DID FRIDAY WHEN
TEMPS LAST REACHED THE 70S.  TUESDAY/S TROUGH LOOKS A LITTLE LESS
ENERGETIC THAN LAST FRIDAY/S TROUGH SO WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO ADVISORY SPEEDS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN BUT DIFFER ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.  MODELS AGREE ON CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO BUT DIFFER ON
HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE TREND OF
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MAKE
CHANGES AS CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS INCREASES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THURSDAY WILL
SEE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVE SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER AS THE TROUGH
FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE CANADIAN WEST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
MODELS WITH MODELS CHANGING SOLUTION WITH EACH NEW RUN.  SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE LOW GO AND SOME MODELS ARE HINTING THAT IT
MAY MOVE WEST AS IT CONTINUES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST.  WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL TREND
POPS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 301518
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
918 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING IN BY AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. FORECAST
IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECASTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TEMPS
RISING TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
UNDER UPPER RIDGE.  UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS EAST OF US TONIGHT AS A
MODERATELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH COMES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN OREGON SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND WESTERN IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS.  HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE A
FULL 20 DEGS LOWER THAN TODAY IN OREGON ZONES AND 10 TO 20 DEGS
LOWER THAN TODAY IN IDAHO ZONES...WITH THE LEAST COOLING IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO. SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY IN NRN AND CENTRAL ZONES...
BUT FEW OR NONE SOUTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN IDAHO MOUNTAIN
ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE SNAKE BASIN MUCH AS THEY DID FRIDAY WHEN
TEMPS LAST REACHED THE 70S.  TUESDAY/S TROUGH LOOKS A LITTLE LESS
ENERGETIC THAN LAST FRIDAY/S TROUGH SO WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO ADVISORY SPEEDS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN BUT DIFFER ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.  MODELS AGREE ON CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO BUT DIFFER ON
HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE TREND OF
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MAKE
CHANGES AS CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS INCREASES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THURSDAY WILL
SEE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVE SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER AS THE TROUGH
FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE CANADIAN WEST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
MODELS WITH MODELS CHANGING SOLUTION WITH EACH NEW RUN.  SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE LOW GO AND SOME MODELS ARE HINTING THAT IT
MAY MOVE WEST AS IT CONTINUES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST.  WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL TREND
POPS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 301518
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
918 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING IN BY AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. FORECAST
IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECASTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TEMPS
RISING TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
UNDER UPPER RIDGE.  UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS EAST OF US TONIGHT AS A
MODERATELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH COMES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN OREGON SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND WESTERN IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS.  HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE A
FULL 20 DEGS LOWER THAN TODAY IN OREGON ZONES AND 10 TO 20 DEGS
LOWER THAN TODAY IN IDAHO ZONES...WITH THE LEAST COOLING IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO. SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY IN NRN AND CENTRAL ZONES...
BUT FEW OR NONE SOUTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN IDAHO MOUNTAIN
ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE SNAKE BASIN MUCH AS THEY DID FRIDAY WHEN
TEMPS LAST REACHED THE 70S.  TUESDAY/S TROUGH LOOKS A LITTLE LESS
ENERGETIC THAN LAST FRIDAY/S TROUGH SO WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO ADVISORY SPEEDS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN BUT DIFFER ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.  MODELS AGREE ON CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO BUT DIFFER ON
HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE TREND OF
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MAKE
CHANGES AS CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS INCREASES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THURSDAY WILL
SEE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVE SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER AS THE TROUGH
FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE CANADIAN WEST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
MODELS WITH MODELS CHANGING SOLUTION WITH EACH NEW RUN.  SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE LOW GO AND SOME MODELS ARE HINTING THAT IT
MAY MOVE WEST AS IT CONTINUES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST.  WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL TREND
POPS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 301518
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
918 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING IN BY AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. FORECAST
IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS 10 KTS OR
LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECASTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TEMPS
RISING TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
UNDER UPPER RIDGE.  UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS EAST OF US TONIGHT AS A
MODERATELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH COMES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN OREGON SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND WESTERN IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS.  HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE A
FULL 20 DEGS LOWER THAN TODAY IN OREGON ZONES AND 10 TO 20 DEGS
LOWER THAN TODAY IN IDAHO ZONES...WITH THE LEAST COOLING IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO. SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY IN NRN AND CENTRAL ZONES...
BUT FEW OR NONE SOUTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN IDAHO MOUNTAIN
ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE SNAKE BASIN MUCH AS THEY DID FRIDAY WHEN
TEMPS LAST REACHED THE 70S.  TUESDAY/S TROUGH LOOKS A LITTLE LESS
ENERGETIC THAN LAST FRIDAY/S TROUGH SO WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO ADVISORY SPEEDS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN BUT DIFFER ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.  MODELS AGREE ON CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO BUT DIFFER ON
HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE TREND OF
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MAKE
CHANGES AS CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS INCREASES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THURSDAY WILL
SEE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVE SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER AS THE TROUGH
FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE CANADIAN WEST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
MODELS WITH MODELS CHANGING SOLUTION WITH EACH NEW RUN.  SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE LOW GO AND SOME MODELS ARE HINTING THAT IT
MAY MOVE WEST AS IT CONTINUES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST.  WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL TREND
POPS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301314 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
614 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
THEM WASHINGTON COAST AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY AS
THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. TEMPS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT
AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY.
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK
IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME
LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E
AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN
THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS
ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS
NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301314 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
614 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
THEM WASHINGTON COAST AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY AS
THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. TEMPS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT
AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY.
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK
IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME
LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E
AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN
THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS
ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS
NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 301314 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
614 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
THEM WASHINGTON COAST AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY AS
THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. TEMPS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT
AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY.
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK
IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME
LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E
AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN
THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS
ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS
NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301314 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
614 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
THEM WASHINGTON COAST AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY AS
THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. TEMPS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT
AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY.
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK
IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME
LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E
AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN
THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS
ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS
NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 301137 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
437 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE REGION FOR ANOTHER DAY TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER AM NOT EXPECTING ANY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE BROKEN. MAXIMUM READINGS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 50S TO
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN TO THE CWA ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT AND THEN
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL AS SNOW LEVELS. EXPECTING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MOSTLY 40S
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING
TUESDAY WILL BECOME SHOWERY CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION TO INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR.
THE OTHER IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE CWA WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. AM NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS
BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS DO REACH 30 MPH WITH
GUTS 40 TO 45 MPH ON TUESDAY. COOLER SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED.  WEAK RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.  LIGHT
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY.  BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.  GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM INLAND ON
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST...PROVIDING A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA.
OVERALL BOTH MODELS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED OVER THE AREA...SO POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.  ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY...BUT NO THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.  TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...AS SEVERAL AREAS BELOW 1500
FEET COULD REACH OR FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.  WHILE IT MAY BE
THE EARLY PART OF THE GROWING SEASON SOME CROPS MAY BE STARTING
EARLY...AND PRECAUTIONS MAY BE NEEDED TO PROTECT THEM FROM A
FREEZE.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 15K FEET THOUGH
SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
KDLS WILL REACH 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 00Z.  SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  44  55  36 /   0  10  40  10
ALW  70  45  56  39 /   0  10  40  10
PSC  74  46  60  38 /   0  10  30  10
YKM  69  42  56  33 /   0  20  30  10
HRI  72  44  59  37 /   0  10  40  10
ELN  68  40  53  32 /   0  20  30  10
RDM  70  38  48  26 /   0  20  40  10
LGD  69  40  50  32 /   0  10  50  20
GCD  72  34  49  29 /   0  10  40  20
DLS  73  46  56  37 /   0  30  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/89






000
FXUS66 KPDT 301137 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
437 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE REGION FOR ANOTHER DAY TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER AM NOT EXPECTING ANY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE BROKEN. MAXIMUM READINGS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 50S TO
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN TO THE CWA ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT AND THEN
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL AS SNOW LEVELS. EXPECTING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MOSTLY 40S
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING
TUESDAY WILL BECOME SHOWERY CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION TO INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR.
THE OTHER IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE CWA WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. AM NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS
BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS DO REACH 30 MPH WITH
GUTS 40 TO 45 MPH ON TUESDAY. COOLER SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED.  WEAK RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.  LIGHT
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY.  BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.  GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM INLAND ON
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST...PROVIDING A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA.
OVERALL BOTH MODELS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED OVER THE AREA...SO POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.  ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY...BUT NO THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.  TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...AS SEVERAL AREAS BELOW 1500
FEET COULD REACH OR FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.  WHILE IT MAY BE
THE EARLY PART OF THE GROWING SEASON SOME CROPS MAY BE STARTING
EARLY...AND PRECAUTIONS MAY BE NEEDED TO PROTECT THEM FROM A
FREEZE.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 15K FEET THOUGH
SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
KDLS WILL REACH 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 00Z.  SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  44  55  36 /   0  10  40  10
ALW  70  45  56  39 /   0  10  40  10
PSC  74  46  60  38 /   0  10  30  10
YKM  69  42  56  33 /   0  20  30  10
HRI  72  44  59  37 /   0  10  40  10
ELN  68  40  53  32 /   0  20  30  10
RDM  70  38  48  26 /   0  20  40  10
LGD  69  40  50  32 /   0  10  50  20
GCD  72  34  49  29 /   0  10  40  20
DLS  73  46  56  37 /   0  30  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/89







000
FXUS66 KMFR 301137
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
437 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS EXPECT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND MAY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR AWAY FROM THE COAST AS WERE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY, AT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP IS EXPECTED AS A
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE POINT-AND-CLICK FORECAST
FOR DETAILS SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. IN SHORT, TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL 15 TO 25 DEGREES FOR HIGHS BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON TUESDAY. WE EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING
TO AROUND 5KFT TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENT IMPACTS FOR TUESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE POSSIBLE CONTAINMENT CHALLENGES TO PRESCRIBED
BURNING IN AREAS THAT SEE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION, MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. ALSO, ANYONE
CAMPING OR PLANNING TO SUMMIT THE PEAKS OF THE CASCADES WILL BE
IMPACTED BY SOME SNOWFALL AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS. THERE IS
ALSO LIKELY TO BE SOME MINIMAL SNOW IMPACT ON ROADS ABOVE 5KFT
SUCH AS AROUND CRATER LAKE AND DIAMOND LAKE JUNCTION ON TUESDAY,
THOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT
ROADSIDE...AND LIKELY LESSER AMOUNTS ON THE ROADS.

I`VE RETAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH 500MB TEMPERATURE AROUND
-30C EXPECT THAT EVEN STRONGER SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN
GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL, AT TIMES, DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 30F WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS THE AIR MASS IS EASILY
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER MOST WEST
SIDE VALLEYS IF IT WERE CLEAR AND CALM. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO BE AROUND, AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS. THESE ARE LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE 30F IN
THE CRITICAL AGRICULTURAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT A
SMALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. TO THE
LEE OF THE CASCADES, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, THE FREEZE THREAT IS
HIGHEST ON THESE TWO MORNINGS.

FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH FRESH SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS THERE WILL BE A VERY REAL THREAT OF A DAMAGING FREEZE
ACROSS MOST WEST SIDE VALLEY AREAS.

SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
DETAILS. IN SHORT, ENSEMBLES SHOW A GROWING POSSIBILITY OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS PACKING MORE MOISTURE WHEN THEY DO ARRIVE IN THE 6 TO 14
DAY TIME FRAME. DETAILS ON TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF
SHORT WAVES DIFFER, SO, FOR NOW HAVE ENTERED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. WE`LL
FINE TUNE WHEN THE GUIDANCE ALLOWS FOR THAT. IN SHORT, COOLER THAN
NORMAL AND NEAR SEASONABLY WET SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE 6-14 DAY
TIME PERIOD, WHICH IS SATURDAY THE 4TH THROUGH SATURDAY THE 11TH
OF APRIL. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
IFR CIGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING MONDAY...THEN AREA OF
MVFR CIGS IN RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED.  MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER
MONDAY NIGHT.  FROM THE CASCADES WEST EXCEPT FOR THE COAST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS IN RAIN WILL DEVELOP AROUND 31/04Z NEAR THE COAST WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND
TO THE CASCADES BY 31/10Z.  EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
BECOME OBSCURED MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
OVER THE WHOLE AREA...BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS
NORTH OF CAPE ARAGO AND BEYOND 10NM OFFSHORE. THE SMALL CRAFT SEAS
WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL...WHICH WILL PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
  PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.

$$

BTL/15




000
FXUS66 KPDT 301137 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
437 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE REGION FOR ANOTHER DAY TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER AM NOT EXPECTING ANY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE BROKEN. MAXIMUM READINGS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 50S TO
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN TO THE CWA ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT AND THEN
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL AS SNOW LEVELS. EXPECTING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MOSTLY 40S
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING
TUESDAY WILL BECOME SHOWERY CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION TO INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR.
THE OTHER IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE CWA WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. AM NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS
BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS DO REACH 30 MPH WITH
GUTS 40 TO 45 MPH ON TUESDAY. COOLER SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED.  WEAK RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.  LIGHT
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY.  BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.  GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM INLAND ON
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST...PROVIDING A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA.
OVERALL BOTH MODELS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED OVER THE AREA...SO POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.  ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY...BUT NO THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.  TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...AS SEVERAL AREAS BELOW 1500
FEET COULD REACH OR FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.  WHILE IT MAY BE
THE EARLY PART OF THE GROWING SEASON SOME CROPS MAY BE STARTING
EARLY...AND PRECAUTIONS MAY BE NEEDED TO PROTECT THEM FROM A
FREEZE.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 15K FEET THOUGH
SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
KDLS WILL REACH 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 00Z.  SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  44  55  36 /   0  10  40  10
ALW  70  45  56  39 /   0  10  40  10
PSC  74  46  60  38 /   0  10  30  10
YKM  69  42  56  33 /   0  20  30  10
HRI  72  44  59  37 /   0  10  40  10
ELN  68  40  53  32 /   0  20  30  10
RDM  70  38  48  26 /   0  20  40  10
LGD  69  40  50  32 /   0  10  50  20
GCD  72  34  49  29 /   0  10  40  20
DLS  73  46  56  37 /   0  30  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/89







000
FXUS66 KMFR 301137
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
437 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS EXPECT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND MAY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR AWAY FROM THE COAST AS WERE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY, AT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP IS EXPECTED AS A
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE POINT-AND-CLICK FORECAST
FOR DETAILS SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. IN SHORT, TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL 15 TO 25 DEGREES FOR HIGHS BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON TUESDAY. WE EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING
TO AROUND 5KFT TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENT IMPACTS FOR TUESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE POSSIBLE CONTAINMENT CHALLENGES TO PRESCRIBED
BURNING IN AREAS THAT SEE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION, MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. ALSO, ANYONE
CAMPING OR PLANNING TO SUMMIT THE PEAKS OF THE CASCADES WILL BE
IMPACTED BY SOME SNOWFALL AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS. THERE IS
ALSO LIKELY TO BE SOME MINIMAL SNOW IMPACT ON ROADS ABOVE 5KFT
SUCH AS AROUND CRATER LAKE AND DIAMOND LAKE JUNCTION ON TUESDAY,
THOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT
ROADSIDE...AND LIKELY LESSER AMOUNTS ON THE ROADS.

I`VE RETAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH 500MB TEMPERATURE AROUND
-30C EXPECT THAT EVEN STRONGER SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN
GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL, AT TIMES, DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 30F WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS THE AIR MASS IS EASILY
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER MOST WEST
SIDE VALLEYS IF IT WERE CLEAR AND CALM. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO BE AROUND, AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS. THESE ARE LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE 30F IN
THE CRITICAL AGRICULTURAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT A
SMALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. TO THE
LEE OF THE CASCADES, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, THE FREEZE THREAT IS
HIGHEST ON THESE TWO MORNINGS.

FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH FRESH SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS THERE WILL BE A VERY REAL THREAT OF A DAMAGING FREEZE
ACROSS MOST WEST SIDE VALLEY AREAS.

SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
DETAILS. IN SHORT, ENSEMBLES SHOW A GROWING POSSIBILITY OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS PACKING MORE MOISTURE WHEN THEY DO ARRIVE IN THE 6 TO 14
DAY TIME FRAME. DETAILS ON TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF
SHORT WAVES DIFFER, SO, FOR NOW HAVE ENTERED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. WE`LL
FINE TUNE WHEN THE GUIDANCE ALLOWS FOR THAT. IN SHORT, COOLER THAN
NORMAL AND NEAR SEASONABLY WET SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE 6-14 DAY
TIME PERIOD, WHICH IS SATURDAY THE 4TH THROUGH SATURDAY THE 11TH
OF APRIL. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
IFR CIGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING MONDAY...THEN AREA OF
MVFR CIGS IN RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED.  MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER
MONDAY NIGHT.  FROM THE CASCADES WEST EXCEPT FOR THE COAST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS IN RAIN WILL DEVELOP AROUND 31/04Z NEAR THE COAST WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND
TO THE CASCADES BY 31/10Z.  EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
BECOME OBSCURED MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
OVER THE WHOLE AREA...BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS
NORTH OF CAPE ARAGO AND BEYOND 10NM OFFSHORE. THE SMALL CRAFT SEAS
WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL...WHICH WILL PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
  PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.

$$

BTL/15




000
FXUS66 KMFR 301137
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
437 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS EXPECT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND MAY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR AWAY FROM THE COAST AS WERE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY, AT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP IS EXPECTED AS A
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE POINT-AND-CLICK FORECAST
FOR DETAILS SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. IN SHORT, TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL 15 TO 25 DEGREES FOR HIGHS BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON TUESDAY. WE EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING
TO AROUND 5KFT TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENT IMPACTS FOR TUESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE POSSIBLE CONTAINMENT CHALLENGES TO PRESCRIBED
BURNING IN AREAS THAT SEE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION, MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. ALSO, ANYONE
CAMPING OR PLANNING TO SUMMIT THE PEAKS OF THE CASCADES WILL BE
IMPACTED BY SOME SNOWFALL AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS. THERE IS
ALSO LIKELY TO BE SOME MINIMAL SNOW IMPACT ON ROADS ABOVE 5KFT
SUCH AS AROUND CRATER LAKE AND DIAMOND LAKE JUNCTION ON TUESDAY,
THOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT
ROADSIDE...AND LIKELY LESSER AMOUNTS ON THE ROADS.

I`VE RETAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH 500MB TEMPERATURE AROUND
-30C EXPECT THAT EVEN STRONGER SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN
GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL, AT TIMES, DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 30F WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS THE AIR MASS IS EASILY
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER MOST WEST
SIDE VALLEYS IF IT WERE CLEAR AND CALM. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO BE AROUND, AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS. THESE ARE LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE 30F IN
THE CRITICAL AGRICULTURAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT A
SMALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. TO THE
LEE OF THE CASCADES, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, THE FREEZE THREAT IS
HIGHEST ON THESE TWO MORNINGS.

FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH FRESH SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS THERE WILL BE A VERY REAL THREAT OF A DAMAGING FREEZE
ACROSS MOST WEST SIDE VALLEY AREAS.

SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
DETAILS. IN SHORT, ENSEMBLES SHOW A GROWING POSSIBILITY OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS PACKING MORE MOISTURE WHEN THEY DO ARRIVE IN THE 6 TO 14
DAY TIME FRAME. DETAILS ON TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF
SHORT WAVES DIFFER, SO, FOR NOW HAVE ENTERED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. WE`LL
FINE TUNE WHEN THE GUIDANCE ALLOWS FOR THAT. IN SHORT, COOLER THAN
NORMAL AND NEAR SEASONABLY WET SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE 6-14 DAY
TIME PERIOD, WHICH IS SATURDAY THE 4TH THROUGH SATURDAY THE 11TH
OF APRIL. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
IFR CIGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING MONDAY...THEN AREA OF
MVFR CIGS IN RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED.  MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER
MONDAY NIGHT.  FROM THE CASCADES WEST EXCEPT FOR THE COAST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS IN RAIN WILL DEVELOP AROUND 31/04Z NEAR THE COAST WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND
TO THE CASCADES BY 31/10Z.  EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
BECOME OBSCURED MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
OVER THE WHOLE AREA...BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS
NORTH OF CAPE ARAGO AND BEYOND 10NM OFFSHORE. THE SMALL CRAFT SEAS
WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL...WHICH WILL PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
  PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.

$$

BTL/15



000
FXUS66 KPDT 301137 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
437 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE REGION FOR ANOTHER DAY TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER AM NOT EXPECTING ANY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE BROKEN. MAXIMUM READINGS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 50S TO
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN TO THE CWA ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT AND THEN
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL AS SNOW LEVELS. EXPECTING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MOSTLY 40S
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING
TUESDAY WILL BECOME SHOWERY CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION TO INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR.
THE OTHER IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE CWA WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. AM NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS
BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS DO REACH 30 MPH WITH
GUTS 40 TO 45 MPH ON TUESDAY. COOLER SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED.  WEAK RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.  LIGHT
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY.  BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.  GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM INLAND ON
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST...PROVIDING A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA.
OVERALL BOTH MODELS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED OVER THE AREA...SO POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.  ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY...BUT NO THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.  TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...AS SEVERAL AREAS BELOW 1500
FEET COULD REACH OR FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.  WHILE IT MAY BE
THE EARLY PART OF THE GROWING SEASON SOME CROPS MAY BE STARTING
EARLY...AND PRECAUTIONS MAY BE NEEDED TO PROTECT THEM FROM A
FREEZE.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 15K FEET THOUGH
SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
KDLS WILL REACH 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 00Z.  SHOWERS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  44  55  36 /   0  10  40  10
ALW  70  45  56  39 /   0  10  40  10
PSC  74  46  60  38 /   0  10  30  10
YKM  69  42  56  33 /   0  20  30  10
HRI  72  44  59  37 /   0  10  40  10
ELN  68  40  53  32 /   0  20  30  10
RDM  70  38  48  26 /   0  20  40  10
LGD  69  40  50  32 /   0  10  50  20
GCD  72  34  49  29 /   0  10  40  20
DLS  73  46  56  37 /   0  30  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/89







000
FXUS66 KMFR 301137
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
437 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS EXPECT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND MAY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR AWAY FROM THE COAST AS WERE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY, AT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP IS EXPECTED AS A
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE POINT-AND-CLICK FORECAST
FOR DETAILS SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. IN SHORT, TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL 15 TO 25 DEGREES FOR HIGHS BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON TUESDAY. WE EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING
TO AROUND 5KFT TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENT IMPACTS FOR TUESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE POSSIBLE CONTAINMENT CHALLENGES TO PRESCRIBED
BURNING IN AREAS THAT SEE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION, MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. ALSO, ANYONE
CAMPING OR PLANNING TO SUMMIT THE PEAKS OF THE CASCADES WILL BE
IMPACTED BY SOME SNOWFALL AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS. THERE IS
ALSO LIKELY TO BE SOME MINIMAL SNOW IMPACT ON ROADS ABOVE 5KFT
SUCH AS AROUND CRATER LAKE AND DIAMOND LAKE JUNCTION ON TUESDAY,
THOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT
ROADSIDE...AND LIKELY LESSER AMOUNTS ON THE ROADS.

I`VE RETAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH 500MB TEMPERATURE AROUND
-30C EXPECT THAT EVEN STRONGER SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN
GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL, AT TIMES, DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 30F WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS THE AIR MASS IS EASILY
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER MOST WEST
SIDE VALLEYS IF IT WERE CLEAR AND CALM. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO BE AROUND, AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS. THESE ARE LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE 30F IN
THE CRITICAL AGRICULTURAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT A
SMALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. TO THE
LEE OF THE CASCADES, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, THE FREEZE THREAT IS
HIGHEST ON THESE TWO MORNINGS.

FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH FRESH SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS THERE WILL BE A VERY REAL THREAT OF A DAMAGING FREEZE
ACROSS MOST WEST SIDE VALLEY AREAS.

SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
DETAILS. IN SHORT, ENSEMBLES SHOW A GROWING POSSIBILITY OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS PACKING MORE MOISTURE WHEN THEY DO ARRIVE IN THE 6 TO 14
DAY TIME FRAME. DETAILS ON TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF
SHORT WAVES DIFFER, SO, FOR NOW HAVE ENTERED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. WE`LL
FINE TUNE WHEN THE GUIDANCE ALLOWS FOR THAT. IN SHORT, COOLER THAN
NORMAL AND NEAR SEASONABLY WET SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE 6-14 DAY
TIME PERIOD, WHICH IS SATURDAY THE 4TH THROUGH SATURDAY THE 11TH
OF APRIL. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
IFR CIGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING MONDAY...THEN AREA OF
MVFR CIGS IN RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED.  MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER
MONDAY NIGHT.  FROM THE CASCADES WEST EXCEPT FOR THE COAST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS IN RAIN WILL DEVELOP AROUND 31/04Z NEAR THE COAST WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND
TO THE CASCADES BY 31/10Z.  EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
BECOME OBSCURED MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT MONDAY 30 MAR 2015...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
OVER THE WHOLE AREA...BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS
NORTH OF CAPE ARAGO AND BEYOND 10NM OFFSHORE. THE SMALL CRAFT SEAS
WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO A MODERATE WEST SWELL...WHICH WILL PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
  PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.

$$

BTL/15



000
FXUS66 KPQR 301027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
THEM WASHINGTON COAST AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY AS
THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. TEMPS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT
AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY.
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK
IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME
LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E
AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN
THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS
ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS
NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
     WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
     PDT EARLY THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 301027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
THEM WASHINGTON COAST AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY AS
THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. TEMPS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT
AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY.
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK
IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME
LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E
AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN
THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS
ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS
NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
     WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
     PDT EARLY THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 301027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
THEM WASHINGTON COAST AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY AS
THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. TEMPS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT
AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY.
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK
IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME
LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E
AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN
THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS
ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS
NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
     WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
     PDT EARLY THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 301027
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
326 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
THEM WASHINGTON COAST AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY AS
THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. TEMPS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY AND AROUND 60 ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE TRENDED THE SAME WITH POPS AND WINDS. NOW
LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
TUESDAY...SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT
AND COINCIDENT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEY.
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AREA EAST TO INCLUDE THE COAST AND PACIFIC
WATERS WITH MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK
IS DEPICTED BY MODELS EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS LATE THU AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME
LIGHT RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E
AND MAINLY JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON
POPS A BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN
THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS
ACROSS THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS
NOW TENDING TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE
AIR MASS FOR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY AS COASTAL STRATUS STAYS IN PLACE OVER COASTAL TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS RETURN AT COASTAL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY REDUCING VIS AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AT INLAND SITES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE...EXPECT WINDS
TO RAMP UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FL060. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AT INLAND
SITES AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. MAY HINT AT THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT WITH THE
TYPE OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH INLAND SITES MAY SEE CONTINUED VFR DUE
TO MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AROUND 05Z AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AROUND 07-08Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
INNER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH HAS
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF PEAK WINDS A BIT. NOW PEAK WINDS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
INNER WATERS PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 FT IN THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...WHILE SEAS IN THE INNER WATERS SHOULD
DROP TO AROUND 9 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK UP
ABOVE 10 FT IN THE INNER WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 TO 13 FT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND STAY ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG...WITH MAYBE A CHANCE OF SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...SEAS AFTER TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRIDAY. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
     WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE
     HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
     PDT EARLY THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON
     TODAY TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     6 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 300911
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE REGION FOR ANOTHER DAY TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER AM NOT EXPECTING ANY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE BROKEN. MAXIMUM READINGS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 50S TO
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN TO THE CWA ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT AND THEN
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL AS SNOW LEVELS. EXPECTING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MOSTLY 40S
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING
TUESDAY WILL BECOME SHOWERY CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION TO INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR.
THE OTHER IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE CWA WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. AM NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS
BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS DO REACH 30 MPH WITH
GUTS 40 TO 45 MPH ON TUESDAY. COOLER SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED.  WEAK RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.  LIGHT
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY.  BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.  GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM INLAND ON
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST...PROVIDING A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA.
OVERALL BOTH MODELS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED OVER THE AREA...SO POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.  ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY...BUT NO THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.  TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...AS SEVERAL AREAS BELOW 1500
FEET COULD REACH OR FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.  WHILE IT MAY BE
THE EARLY PART OF THE GROWING SEASON SOME CROPS MAY BE STARTING
EARLY...AND PRECAUTIONS MAY BE NEEDED TO PROTECT THEM FROM A
FREEZE.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 15K FEET THOUGH SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 20Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
BELOW 12 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS WILL REACH 10-15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  44  55  36 /   0  10  40  10
ALW  70  45  56  39 /   0  10  40  10
PSC  74  46  60  38 /   0  10  30  10
YKM  69  42  56  33 /   0  20  30  10
HRI  72  44  59  37 /   0  10  40  10
ELN  68  40  53  32 /   0  20  30  10
RDM  70  38  48  26 /   0  20  40  10
LGD  69  40  50  32 /   0  10  50  20
GCD  72  34  49  29 /   0  10  40  20
DLS  73  46  56  37 /   0  30  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/89





000
FXUS66 KPDT 300911
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE REGION FOR ANOTHER DAY TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER AM NOT EXPECTING ANY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE BROKEN. MAXIMUM READINGS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 50S TO
MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN TO THE CWA ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT AND THEN
OVER THE REST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL AS SNOW LEVELS. EXPECTING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY BE IN THE 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MOSTLY 40S
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. STEADY LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING
TUESDAY WILL BECOME SHOWERY CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION TO INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR.
THE OTHER IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE CWA WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. AM NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS
BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS DO REACH 30 MPH WITH
GUTS 40 TO 45 MPH ON TUESDAY. COOLER SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. 88

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE MID RANGE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED.  WEAK RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.  LIGHT
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY.  BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.  GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM INLAND ON
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST...PROVIDING A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA.
OVERALL BOTH MODELS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED OVER THE AREA...SO POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.  ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY...BUT NO THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.  TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...AS SEVERAL AREAS BELOW 1500
FEET COULD REACH OR FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.  WHILE IT MAY BE
THE EARLY PART OF THE GROWING SEASON SOME CROPS MAY BE STARTING
EARLY...AND PRECAUTIONS MAY BE NEEDED TO PROTECT THEM FROM A
FREEZE.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ABOVE 15K FEET THOUGH SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 20Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
BELOW 12 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS WILL REACH 10-15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  68  44  55  36 /   0  10  40  10
ALW  70  45  56  39 /   0  10  40  10
PSC  74  46  60  38 /   0  10  30  10
YKM  69  42  56  33 /   0  20  30  10
HRI  72  44  59  37 /   0  10  40  10
ELN  68  40  53  32 /   0  20  30  10
RDM  70  38  48  26 /   0  20  40  10
LGD  69  40  50  32 /   0  10  50  20
GCD  72  34  49  29 /   0  10  40  20
DLS  73  46  56  37 /   0  30  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/89






000
FXUS65 KBOI 300841
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECASTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TEMPS
RISING TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
UNDER UPPER RIDGE.  UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS EAST OF US TONIGHT AS A
MODERATELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH COMES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN OREGON SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND WESTERN IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS.  HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE A
FULL 20 DEGS LOWER THAN TODAY IN OREGON ZONES AND 10 TO 20 DEGS
LOWER THAN TODAY IN IDAHO ZONES...WITH THE LEAST COOLING IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO. SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY IN NRN AND CENTRAL ZONES...
BUT FEW OR NONE SOUTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN IDAHO MOUNTAIN
ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE SNAKE BASIN MUCH AS THEY DID FRIDAY WHEN
TEMPS LAST REACHED THE 70S.  TUESDAY/S TROUGH LOOKS A LITTLE LESS
ENERGETIC THAN LAST FRIDAY/S TROUGH SO WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO ADVISORY SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN BUT DIFFER ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.  MODELS AGREE ON CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO BUT DIFFER ON
HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE TREND OF
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MAKE
CHANGES AS CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS INCREASES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THURSDAY WILL
SEE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVE SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER AS THE TROUGH
FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE CANADIAN WEST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
MODELS WITH MODELS CHANGING SOLUTION WITH EACH NEW RUN.  SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE LOW GO AND SOME MODELS ARE HINTING THAT IT
MAY MOVE WEST AS IT CONTINUES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST.  WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL TREND
POPS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5-15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 300841
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECASTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TEMPS
RISING TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
UNDER UPPER RIDGE.  UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS EAST OF US TONIGHT AS A
MODERATELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH COMES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN OREGON SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND WESTERN IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS.  HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE A
FULL 20 DEGS LOWER THAN TODAY IN OREGON ZONES AND 10 TO 20 DEGS
LOWER THAN TODAY IN IDAHO ZONES...WITH THE LEAST COOLING IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO. SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY IN NRN AND CENTRAL ZONES...
BUT FEW OR NONE SOUTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN IDAHO MOUNTAIN
ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE SNAKE BASIN MUCH AS THEY DID FRIDAY WHEN
TEMPS LAST REACHED THE 70S.  TUESDAY/S TROUGH LOOKS A LITTLE LESS
ENERGETIC THAN LAST FRIDAY/S TROUGH SO WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO ADVISORY SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN BUT DIFFER ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.  MODELS AGREE ON CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO BUT DIFFER ON
HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE TREND OF
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MAKE
CHANGES AS CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS INCREASES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THURSDAY WILL
SEE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVE SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER AS THE TROUGH
FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE CANADIAN WEST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
MODELS WITH MODELS CHANGING SOLUTION WITH EACH NEW RUN.  SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE LOW GO AND SOME MODELS ARE HINTING THAT IT
MAY MOVE WEST AS IT CONTINUES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST.  WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL TREND
POPS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5-15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 300841
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECASTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TEMPS
RISING TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
UNDER UPPER RIDGE.  UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS EAST OF US TONIGHT AS A
MODERATELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH COMES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN OREGON SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND WESTERN IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS.  HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE A
FULL 20 DEGS LOWER THAN TODAY IN OREGON ZONES AND 10 TO 20 DEGS
LOWER THAN TODAY IN IDAHO ZONES...WITH THE LEAST COOLING IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO. SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY IN NRN AND CENTRAL ZONES...
BUT FEW OR NONE SOUTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN IDAHO MOUNTAIN
ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
ADVISORY SPEEDS IN THE SNAKE BASIN MUCH AS THEY DID FRIDAY WHEN
TEMPS LAST REACHED THE 70S.  TUESDAY/S TROUGH LOOKS A LITTLE LESS
ENERGETIC THAN LAST FRIDAY/S TROUGH SO WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO ADVISORY SPEEDS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN BUT DIFFER ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.  MODELS AGREE ON CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO BUT DIFFER ON
HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE TREND OF
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MAKE
CHANGES AS CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS INCREASES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THURSDAY WILL
SEE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVE SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER AS THE TROUGH
FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE CANADIAN WEST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
MODELS WITH MODELS CHANGING SOLUTION WITH EACH NEW RUN.  SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH...BUT UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE LOW GO AND SOME MODELS ARE HINTING THAT IT
MAY MOVE WEST AS IT CONTINUES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST.  WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL TREND
POPS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5-15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 300515
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1016 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
A LITTLE WARMER OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY SO BUMPED THEN UP SLIGHTLY
IN AN EVENING FORECAST UPDATE BASED ON THE MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES
OF SUNDAY. ALSO DECREASED SKY COVER TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS MOST OF
THE CLOUDS WILL BE HIGH THIN BASED CIRRUS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 15K FEET THOUGH
SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS WILL REACH 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TOMORROW SO HIGH TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES. EXPECT 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION SO MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS DOWN ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES. WEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BECOMING BREEZY TO
WINDY DURING THE DAY. COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS.  94

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSETTLED AND
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE DRY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT 2500-3500
FEET AT NIGHT AND 3500-4500 FEET DURING THE DAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEM THOUGH THE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UPSLOPE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LOW WILL CARVE A TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST AND A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BY SUNDAY THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MOVING ASHORE WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS IT STILL OFFSHORE. HAVE BUMPED UP A FEW PERCENT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA AND GAVE ALL THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS IN CASE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S AND MAINLY
IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  70  44  57 /   0   0  10  40
ALW  48  72  45  58 /   0   0  10  40
PSC  46  75  46  62 /   0   0  10  30
YKM  42  70  42  58 /   0   0  20  30
HRI  43  73  44  61 /   0   0  10  40
ELN  40  69  40  55 /  10   0  20  30
RDM  34  71  38  50 /   0   0  20  40
LGD  38  70  40  52 /   0   0  10  50
GCD  41  73  34  51 /   0   0  10  40
DLS  44  74  46  58 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91






000
FXUS66 KPDT 300515
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1016 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
A LITTLE WARMER OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY SO BUMPED THEN UP SLIGHTLY
IN AN EVENING FORECAST UPDATE BASED ON THE MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES
OF SUNDAY. ALSO DECREASED SKY COVER TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS MOST OF
THE CLOUDS WILL BE HIGH THIN BASED CIRRUS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 15K FEET THOUGH
SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS WILL REACH 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TOMORROW SO HIGH TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES. EXPECT 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION SO MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS DOWN ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES. WEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BECOMING BREEZY TO
WINDY DURING THE DAY. COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS.  94

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSETTLED AND
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE DRY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT 2500-3500
FEET AT NIGHT AND 3500-4500 FEET DURING THE DAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEM THOUGH THE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UPSLOPE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LOW WILL CARVE A TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST AND A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BY SUNDAY THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MOVING ASHORE WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS IT STILL OFFSHORE. HAVE BUMPED UP A FEW PERCENT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA AND GAVE ALL THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS IN CASE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S AND MAINLY
IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  70  44  57 /   0   0  10  40
ALW  48  72  45  58 /   0   0  10  40
PSC  46  75  46  62 /   0   0  10  30
YKM  42  70  42  58 /   0   0  20  30
HRI  43  73  44  61 /   0   0  10  40
ELN  40  69  40  55 /  10   0  20  30
RDM  34  71  38  50 /   0   0  20  40
LGD  38  70  40  52 /   0   0  10  50
GCD  41  73  34  51 /   0   0  10  40
DLS  44  74  46  58 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91






000
FXUS66 KPDT 300515
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1016 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
A LITTLE WARMER OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY SO BUMPED THEN UP SLIGHTLY
IN AN EVENING FORECAST UPDATE BASED ON THE MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES
OF SUNDAY. ALSO DECREASED SKY COVER TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS MOST OF
THE CLOUDS WILL BE HIGH THIN BASED CIRRUS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 15K FEET THOUGH
SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KDLS WILL REACH 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TOMORROW SO HIGH TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES. EXPECT 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION SO MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS DOWN ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES. WEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BECOMING BREEZY TO
WINDY DURING THE DAY. COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS.  94

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSETTLED AND
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE DRY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT 2500-3500
FEET AT NIGHT AND 3500-4500 FEET DURING THE DAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEM THOUGH THE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UPSLOPE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LOW WILL CARVE A TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST AND A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BY SUNDAY THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MOVING ASHORE WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS IT STILL OFFSHORE. HAVE BUMPED UP A FEW PERCENT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA AND GAVE ALL THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS IN CASE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S AND MAINLY
IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  70  44  57 /   0   0  10  40
ALW  48  72  45  58 /   0   0  10  40
PSC  46  75  46  62 /   0   0  10  30
YKM  42  70  42  58 /   0   0  20  30
HRI  43  73  44  61 /   0   0  10  40
ELN  40  69  40  55 /  10   0  20  30
RDM  34  71  38  50 /   0   0  20  40
LGD  38  70  40  52 /   0   0  10  50
GCD  41  73  34  51 /   0   0  10  40
DLS  44  74  46  58 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91







000
FXUS66 KPQR 300358
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
854 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COAST THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WILL LIFT N A BIT MORE
OVERNIGHT. BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR N. SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS
FOR THAT AREA INTO MON MORNING. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE SE PART OF THE ARE
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP DOWN CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURNING MON.

MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING MON NIGHT...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INLAND DURING THE EVENING. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW STRONG LIFT AND MOISTURE BELOW 500 MB TO JUSTIFY
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MON NIGHT. THIS USHERS IN A COOLER UNSTABLE AIR
MASS FOR TUE AND CONTINUING INTO WED AS A COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS. WITH H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO C
SURFACE HIGH TUE AND WED ARE LIKELY TO COME BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING GOOD INSTABILITY TUE...AT LEAST
BY PACNW STANDARDS...WITH GFS AND NAM CAPE VALUES MAXING OUT IN
TRIPLE DIGITS. WITH THE TOP OF THE UNSTABLE LAYER APPROACHING 20K FT
IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS LIKELY WILL NEED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT...H5 TEMPS AGAIN
DOWN NEAR -32 DEG...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.

.LONG TERM...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK IS DEPICTED BY MODELS
EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LATE THU
AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT RESIDUAL
PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E AND MAINLY
JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON POPS A
BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS ACROSS THE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS NOW TENDING
TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH A
FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS
FOR SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. NEAR KAST SCT-BKN CIGS NEAR 2500 FT
KAST WILL PROBABLY AFFECT THAT AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD
BE GONE MID MIDDAY MON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS IFR STRATUS ON THE
COAST WORKING ITS WAY UP TO KAST LATER TONIGHT. LAST GOOD
VISIBLE SAT IMAGE SHOWED STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS
PACIFIC CITY. SO IT SEEMS PROBABLE SOME IFR CIGS WILL MAKE IT TO
KAST LATER TONIGHT GIVEN THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THE LOW STRATUS
SHOULD PULL OFFSHORE A LITTLE BY MIDDAY MON.

ELSEWHERE...VFR LIKELY PERSISTS WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. MAY
AGAIN SEE SHALLOW FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH VALLEY AND IN MORE FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
/26

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TOMORROW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BEGIN AT 5 AM IN THE NORTH WHERE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK AROUND 25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONGER WINDS WILL NOT ARRIVE
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON SO THE ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 2 PM FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. WINDS SHOULD EASE BY 11 PM
ACROSS ALL WATERS.

MEANWHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 11 FT OVER NORTHERN WATER.
SPARSE OBSERVATIONS MAKE IT A BIT TOUGHER TO DISCERN IF SEAS HAVE
DROPPED OFF A BIT IN THE SOUTH...SO ELECTED TO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS IS...THROUGH 5 AM. THIS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN THE NORTH...BUT SUSPECT ENOUGH OF A RESPITE
IN SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTH TO LET IT EXPIRE. HOWEVER...SEAS
AGAIN WILL BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
AND INTO TUESDAY. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT ON ALL
  COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR 5 AM TO 11 PM MON ON
  COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR 2 PM TO 11 PM MON ON
  COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
  TONIGHT...AND AGAIN MON AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300358
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
854 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COAST THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WILL LIFT N A BIT MORE
OVERNIGHT. BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR N. SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS
FOR THAT AREA INTO MON MORNING. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE SE PART OF THE ARE
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP DOWN CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURNING MON.

MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING MON NIGHT...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INLAND DURING THE EVENING. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW STRONG LIFT AND MOISTURE BELOW 500 MB TO JUSTIFY
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MON NIGHT. THIS USHERS IN A COOLER UNSTABLE AIR
MASS FOR TUE AND CONTINUING INTO WED AS A COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS. WITH H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO C
SURFACE HIGH TUE AND WED ARE LIKELY TO COME BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING GOOD INSTABILITY TUE...AT LEAST
BY PACNW STANDARDS...WITH GFS AND NAM CAPE VALUES MAXING OUT IN
TRIPLE DIGITS. WITH THE TOP OF THE UNSTABLE LAYER APPROACHING 20K FT
IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS LIKELY WILL NEED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT...H5 TEMPS AGAIN
DOWN NEAR -32 DEG...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.

.LONG TERM...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK IS DEPICTED BY MODELS
EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LATE THU
AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT RESIDUAL
PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E AND MAINLY
JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON POPS A
BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS ACROSS THE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS NOW TENDING
TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH A
FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS
FOR SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. NEAR KAST SCT-BKN CIGS NEAR 2500 FT
KAST WILL PROBABLY AFFECT THAT AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD
BE GONE MID MIDDAY MON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS IFR STRATUS ON THE
COAST WORKING ITS WAY UP TO KAST LATER TONIGHT. LAST GOOD
VISIBLE SAT IMAGE SHOWED STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS
PACIFIC CITY. SO IT SEEMS PROBABLE SOME IFR CIGS WILL MAKE IT TO
KAST LATER TONIGHT GIVEN THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THE LOW STRATUS
SHOULD PULL OFFSHORE A LITTLE BY MIDDAY MON.

ELSEWHERE...VFR LIKELY PERSISTS WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. MAY
AGAIN SEE SHALLOW FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH VALLEY AND IN MORE FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
/26

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TOMORROW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BEGIN AT 5 AM IN THE NORTH WHERE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK AROUND 25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONGER WINDS WILL NOT ARRIVE
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON SO THE ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 2 PM FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. WINDS SHOULD EASE BY 11 PM
ACROSS ALL WATERS.

MEANWHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 11 FT OVER NORTHERN WATER.
SPARSE OBSERVATIONS MAKE IT A BIT TOUGHER TO DISCERN IF SEAS HAVE
DROPPED OFF A BIT IN THE SOUTH...SO ELECTED TO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS IS...THROUGH 5 AM. THIS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN THE NORTH...BUT SUSPECT ENOUGH OF A RESPITE
IN SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTH TO LET IT EXPIRE. HOWEVER...SEAS
AGAIN WILL BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
AND INTO TUESDAY. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT ON ALL
  COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR 5 AM TO 11 PM MON ON
  COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR 2 PM TO 11 PM MON ON
  COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
  TONIGHT...AND AGAIN MON AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300358
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
854 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COAST THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WILL LIFT N A BIT MORE
OVERNIGHT. BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR N. SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS
FOR THAT AREA INTO MON MORNING. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY WEATHER
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE SE PART OF THE ARE
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP DOWN CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURNING MON.

MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING MON NIGHT...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INLAND DURING THE EVENING. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW STRONG LIFT AND MOISTURE BELOW 500 MB TO JUSTIFY
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MON NIGHT. THIS USHERS IN A COOLER UNSTABLE AIR
MASS FOR TUE AND CONTINUING INTO WED AS A COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS. WITH H8 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO C
SURFACE HIGH TUE AND WED ARE LIKELY TO COME BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING GOOD INSTABILITY TUE...AT LEAST
BY PACNW STANDARDS...WITH GFS AND NAM CAPE VALUES MAXING OUT IN
TRIPLE DIGITS. WITH THE TOP OF THE UNSTABLE LAYER APPROACHING 20K FT
IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS LIKELY WILL NEED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT...H5 TEMPS AGAIN
DOWN NEAR -32 DEG...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AGAIN WED.

.LONG TERM...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OF MIDWEEK IS DEPICTED BY MODELS
EXITING THE REGION THU...WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LATE THU
AND FRI. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT RESIDUAL
PRECIPITATION THU...BUT WITH UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFTED E AND MAINLY
JUST SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT WILL CUT BACK ON POPS A
BIT FOR THU. 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO A BIT SLOWER IN DIGGING IN THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE FRI SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS ACROSS THE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND MODELS NOW TENDING
TO DIG THE NEXT TROUGH DOWN OFF THE COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUSH A
FRONT THROUGH SAT AND KEEP THE REGION IN A COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS
FOR SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. NEAR KAST SCT-BKN CIGS NEAR 2500 FT
KAST WILL PROBABLY AFFECT THAT AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD
BE GONE MID MIDDAY MON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS IFR STRATUS ON THE
COAST WORKING ITS WAY UP TO KAST LATER TONIGHT. LAST GOOD
VISIBLE SAT IMAGE SHOWED STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS
PACIFIC CITY. SO IT SEEMS PROBABLE SOME IFR CIGS WILL MAKE IT TO
KAST LATER TONIGHT GIVEN THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THE LOW STRATUS
SHOULD PULL OFFSHORE A LITTLE BY MIDDAY MON.

ELSEWHERE...VFR LIKELY PERSISTS WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. MAY
AGAIN SEE SHALLOW FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH VALLEY AND IN MORE FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
/26

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TOMORROW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BEGIN AT 5 AM IN THE NORTH WHERE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK AROUND 25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONGER WINDS WILL NOT ARRIVE
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON SO THE ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 2 PM FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. WINDS SHOULD EASE BY 11 PM
ACROSS ALL WATERS.

MEANWHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 11 FT OVER NORTHERN WATER.
SPARSE OBSERVATIONS MAKE IT A BIT TOUGHER TO DISCERN IF SEAS HAVE
DROPPED OFF A BIT IN THE SOUTH...SO ELECTED TO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS IS...THROUGH 5 AM. THIS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN THE NORTH...BUT SUSPECT ENOUGH OF A RESPITE
IN SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTH TO LET IT EXPIRE. HOWEVER...SEAS
AGAIN WILL BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
AND INTO TUESDAY. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT ON ALL
  COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR 5 AM TO 11 PM MON ON
  COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR 2 PM TO 11 PM MON ON
  COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
  TONIGHT...AND AGAIN MON AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 300328
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
828 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN A FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVING INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. ON TUESDAY
THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST AND A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
PLACE BRINGING A COLD SHOWERY AIRMASS TO THE AREA.

TONIGHT EXPECT THE ONLY CONCERN TO BE VALLEY AND COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE COAST, MAINLY
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING. INLAND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN
WESTERN VALLEYS, MAINLY IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND IN THE GRANTS
PASS AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FOG WILL BE BRIEF AND
LIMITED TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

THEN, AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ALONG THE COAST IN THE EARLY EVENING MONDAY, THEN INLAND IN
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AND SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING FROM 8500 FT TO AROUND 5000-6000 FT WITH THE FRONT. THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO PLACE TUESDAY WILL BRING LOWER SNOW
LEVELS OF 4000 TO 4500 FT OVER THE CASCADES AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS,
AND LOCALLY DOWN TO 3500 FEET. EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW LEVELS OF 4500 TO 5500 FEET. THIS COLD
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TO COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. ALSO
ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS CWA MAY HAVE
SMALL GRAUPEL OR ICE PELLETS WITH THEM ON TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR INLAND AREAS EXCEPT FOR BRIEF IFR CIGS
IN THE UMPQUA BASIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ALONG THE COAST EXPECT
VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING MONDAY MORNING. ALONG THE COAST IFR IS FORECAST TO
CLEAR TO VFR IN THE LATE MORNING. -PETRUCELLI/CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT SUNDAY 29 MAR 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVE EAST AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. A MODERATE
WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...THEN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. -PETRUCELLI/CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARM, DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, EXPECT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST, THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN. IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING.

MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE. MOST INLAND AREAS
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY...EVEN A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER EAST OF THE CASCADES. A GUSTY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM WEATHER WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST BY MONDAY EVENING...AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES DURING THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
VERY QUICKLY FROM 8000-9000 FT MONDAY EVENING DOWN TO 4500-5000 FT
BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT EAST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY, WHILE WEST-NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPS MODERATE SHOWERS GOING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS, THOUGH PROBABLY
REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. OVERALL,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE 0.25-0.75 OF AN INCH WITH SNOWFALL
ABOVE 5000 FT OF 1-3 INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE 3-6 INCHES.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT PROBABLY CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE. IF CLOUDS BREAK ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WE MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT (-30 TO -33C AT 500 MB).
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. SINCE IT WILL BE SO
COLD ALOFT, ANY SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE GRAUPEL.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 3000-4000 FEET, BUT WITH LESS
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED, SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AROUND THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN OREGON FOR
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. FREEZE POTENTIAL EXISTS AGAIN IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY. SPILDE

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. POPS WILL
BE WANING FROM THE WEST WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS COOS COUNTY
AND THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. W-NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS
INTO THE CASCADES AND THE WARNERS. EAST SIDE COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE EARLY MORNING BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO RAIN
SHOWERS OR MIXED RAIN-SNOW BY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY COOL MIN TEMPS
LOOK LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME WEST SIDE FROST POTENTIAL.
THEN THERE IS A FAIR POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLEARING SKIES MAY ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
DIP CLOSER TO FREEZING FOR THE RURAL AREA OF ROGUE VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE PAST 12 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE
INDICATED A DIGGING TREND OF A TROUGH COMING INTO THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER BUT STILL SHOWS A TROUGH
DIGGING OFFSHORE. WE`RE CONTINUING TO STEER WITH THE COOLER FORECAST
FOR NOW. ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE, WE`RE MAINTAINING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. WOULD HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH POPS BUT THE EC
SOLUTION WOULD CONFINE PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE COAST. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300328
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
828 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN A FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVING INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. ON TUESDAY
THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST AND A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
PLACE BRINGING A COLD SHOWERY AIRMASS TO THE AREA.

TONIGHT EXPECT THE ONLY CONCERN TO BE VALLEY AND COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE COAST, MAINLY
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING. INLAND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN
WESTERN VALLEYS, MAINLY IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND IN THE GRANTS
PASS AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FOG WILL BE BRIEF AND
LIMITED TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

THEN, AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ALONG THE COAST IN THE EARLY EVENING MONDAY, THEN INLAND IN
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AND SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING FROM 8500 FT TO AROUND 5000-6000 FT WITH THE FRONT. THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO PLACE TUESDAY WILL BRING LOWER SNOW
LEVELS OF 4000 TO 4500 FT OVER THE CASCADES AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS,
AND LOCALLY DOWN TO 3500 FEET. EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW LEVELS OF 4500 TO 5500 FEET. THIS COLD
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TO COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. ALSO
ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS CWA MAY HAVE
SMALL GRAUPEL OR ICE PELLETS WITH THEM ON TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR INLAND AREAS EXCEPT FOR BRIEF IFR CIGS
IN THE UMPQUA BASIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ALONG THE COAST EXPECT
VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING MONDAY MORNING. ALONG THE COAST IFR IS FORECAST TO
CLEAR TO VFR IN THE LATE MORNING. -PETRUCELLI/CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT SUNDAY 29 MAR 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVE EAST AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. A MODERATE
WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...THEN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. -PETRUCELLI/CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARM, DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, EXPECT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST, THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN. IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING.

MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE. MOST INLAND AREAS
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY...EVEN A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER EAST OF THE CASCADES. A GUSTY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM WEATHER WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST BY MONDAY EVENING...AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES DURING THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
VERY QUICKLY FROM 8000-9000 FT MONDAY EVENING DOWN TO 4500-5000 FT
BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT EAST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY, WHILE WEST-NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPS MODERATE SHOWERS GOING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS, THOUGH PROBABLY
REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. OVERALL,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE 0.25-0.75 OF AN INCH WITH SNOWFALL
ABOVE 5000 FT OF 1-3 INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE 3-6 INCHES.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT PROBABLY CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE. IF CLOUDS BREAK ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WE MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT (-30 TO -33C AT 500 MB).
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. SINCE IT WILL BE SO
COLD ALOFT, ANY SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE GRAUPEL.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 3000-4000 FEET, BUT WITH LESS
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED, SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AROUND THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN OREGON FOR
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. FREEZE POTENTIAL EXISTS AGAIN IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY. SPILDE

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. POPS WILL
BE WANING FROM THE WEST WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS COOS COUNTY
AND THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. W-NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS
INTO THE CASCADES AND THE WARNERS. EAST SIDE COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE EARLY MORNING BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO RAIN
SHOWERS OR MIXED RAIN-SNOW BY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY COOL MIN TEMPS
LOOK LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME WEST SIDE FROST POTENTIAL.
THEN THERE IS A FAIR POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLEARING SKIES MAY ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
DIP CLOSER TO FREEZING FOR THE RURAL AREA OF ROGUE VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE PAST 12 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE
INDICATED A DIGGING TREND OF A TROUGH COMING INTO THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER BUT STILL SHOWS A TROUGH
DIGGING OFFSHORE. WE`RE CONTINUING TO STEER WITH THE COOLER FORECAST
FOR NOW. ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE, WE`RE MAINTAINING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. WOULD HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH POPS BUT THE EC
SOLUTION WOULD CONFINE PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE COAST. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300328
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
828 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN A FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVING INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. ON TUESDAY
THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST AND A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
PLACE BRINGING A COLD SHOWERY AIRMASS TO THE AREA.

TONIGHT EXPECT THE ONLY CONCERN TO BE VALLEY AND COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE COAST, MAINLY
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING. INLAND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN
WESTERN VALLEYS, MAINLY IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND IN THE GRANTS
PASS AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FOG WILL BE BRIEF AND
LIMITED TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

THEN, AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ALONG THE COAST IN THE EARLY EVENING MONDAY, THEN INLAND IN
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AND SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING FROM 8500 FT TO AROUND 5000-6000 FT WITH THE FRONT. THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO PLACE TUESDAY WILL BRING LOWER SNOW
LEVELS OF 4000 TO 4500 FT OVER THE CASCADES AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS,
AND LOCALLY DOWN TO 3500 FEET. EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW LEVELS OF 4500 TO 5500 FEET. THIS COLD
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TO COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. ALSO
ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS CWA MAY HAVE
SMALL GRAUPEL OR ICE PELLETS WITH THEM ON TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR INLAND AREAS EXCEPT FOR BRIEF IFR CIGS
IN THE UMPQUA BASIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ALONG THE COAST EXPECT
VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING MONDAY MORNING. ALONG THE COAST IFR IS FORECAST TO
CLEAR TO VFR IN THE LATE MORNING. -PETRUCELLI/CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT SUNDAY 29 MAR 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVE EAST AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. A MODERATE
WEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY REBUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...THEN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. -PETRUCELLI/CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARM, DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, EXPECT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST, THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN. IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING.

MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE. MOST INLAND AREAS
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY...EVEN A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER EAST OF THE CASCADES. A GUSTY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM WEATHER WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST...AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST BY MONDAY EVENING...AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES DURING THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
VERY QUICKLY FROM 8000-9000 FT MONDAY EVENING DOWN TO 4500-5000 FT
BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT EAST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY, WHILE WEST-NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPS MODERATE SHOWERS GOING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS, THOUGH PROBABLY
REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. OVERALL,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE 0.25-0.75 OF AN INCH WITH SNOWFALL
ABOVE 5000 FT OF 1-3 INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE 3-6 INCHES.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT PROBABLY CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE. IF CLOUDS BREAK ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WE MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT (-30 TO -33C AT 500 MB).
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. SINCE IT WILL BE SO
COLD ALOFT, ANY SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE GRAUPEL.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 3000-4000 FEET, BUT WITH LESS
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED, SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AROUND THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN OREGON FOR
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. FREEZE POTENTIAL EXISTS AGAIN IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY. SPILDE

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. POPS WILL
BE WANING FROM THE WEST WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS COOS COUNTY
AND THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. W-NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS
INTO THE CASCADES AND THE WARNERS. EAST SIDE COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE EARLY MORNING BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO RAIN
SHOWERS OR MIXED RAIN-SNOW BY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY COOL MIN TEMPS
LOOK LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME WEST SIDE FROST POTENTIAL.
THEN THERE IS A FAIR POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLEARING SKIES MAY ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
DIP CLOSER TO FREEZING FOR THE RURAL AREA OF ROGUE VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE PAST 12 RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE
INDICATED A DIGGING TREND OF A TROUGH COMING INTO THE WEST
COAST SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER BUT STILL SHOWS A TROUGH
DIGGING OFFSHORE. WE`RE CONTINUING TO STEER WITH THE COOLER FORECAST
FOR NOW. ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE, WE`RE MAINTAINING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. WOULD HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH POPS BUT THE EC
SOLUTION WOULD CONFINE PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE COAST. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC



000
FXUS65 KBOI 300303
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
903 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND MILD NIGHT WITH SOME MID-CLOUD TRANSITIONING ACROSS EASTERN
OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO. MONDAY IS THE LAST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK AS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE PAC NW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT
OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...W 10-20KT BECOMING SW 15-25KT
BY 18Z/MON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. RECORD/NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR MONDAY. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT...BOIPNSBOI...FOR A LIST OF CITIES WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORDS. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE 15-25 DEGREES LOWER IN SE OREGON AND 10-15 DEGREES LOWER IN SW
IDAHO. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS ALL OF SE OREGON
AND SW IDAHO DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MTNS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHERE IT
WILL REMAIN DRY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STILL EXPECTING AN
ACTIVE MID-LONG TERM AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
EACH OF THESE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A COLD FRONT...GUSTY
WINDS...AND REINFORCE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FIRST
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN KEEP
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY.
NEXT TROUGH IS EXPECTED SOMETIME THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH
OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE DEPICTED IN MODELS QUITE WELL...BUT SOME
DETAILS AND EXACT TIMING ARE WAVERING FROM RUN TO RUN. FOR FRIDAY
AND BEYOND...THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE ZONAL/SW FLOW AS
BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLOSED LOW DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE BC
AND PACNW COASTS. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EAST AND WET WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A LARGER SYSTEM NEAR DAYS 6/7.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 300303
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
903 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND MILD NIGHT WITH SOME MID-CLOUD TRANSITIONING ACROSS EASTERN
OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO. MONDAY IS THE LAST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK AS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE PAC NW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT
OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...W 10-20KT BECOMING SW 15-25KT
BY 18Z/MON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. RECORD/NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR MONDAY. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT...BOIPNSBOI...FOR A LIST OF CITIES WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORDS. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE 15-25 DEGREES LOWER IN SE OREGON AND 10-15 DEGREES LOWER IN SW
IDAHO. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS ALL OF SE OREGON
AND SW IDAHO DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MTNS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHERE IT
WILL REMAIN DRY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STILL EXPECTING AN
ACTIVE MID-LONG TERM AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
EACH OF THESE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A COLD FRONT...GUSTY
WINDS...AND REINFORCE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FIRST
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN KEEP
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY.
NEXT TROUGH IS EXPECTED SOMETIME THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH
OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE DEPICTED IN MODELS QUITE WELL...BUT SOME
DETAILS AND EXACT TIMING ARE WAVERING FROM RUN TO RUN. FOR FRIDAY
AND BEYOND...THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE ZONAL/SW FLOW AS
BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLOSED LOW DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE BC
AND PACNW COASTS. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EAST AND WET WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A LARGER SYSTEM NEAR DAYS 6/7.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 300303
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
903 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND MILD NIGHT WITH SOME MID-CLOUD TRANSITIONING ACROSS EASTERN
OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO. MONDAY IS THE LAST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK AS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE PAC NW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT
OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...W 10-20KT BECOMING SW 15-25KT
BY 18Z/MON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. RECORD/NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR MONDAY. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT...BOIPNSBOI...FOR A LIST OF CITIES WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORDS. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE 15-25 DEGREES LOWER IN SE OREGON AND 10-15 DEGREES LOWER IN SW
IDAHO. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS ALL OF SE OREGON
AND SW IDAHO DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MTNS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHERE IT
WILL REMAIN DRY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STILL EXPECTING AN
ACTIVE MID-LONG TERM AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
EACH OF THESE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A COLD FRONT...GUSTY
WINDS...AND REINFORCE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FIRST
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN KEEP
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY.
NEXT TROUGH IS EXPECTED SOMETIME THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH
OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE DEPICTED IN MODELS QUITE WELL...BUT SOME
DETAILS AND EXACT TIMING ARE WAVERING FROM RUN TO RUN. FOR FRIDAY
AND BEYOND...THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE ZONAL/SW FLOW AS
BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLOSED LOW DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE BC
AND PACNW COASTS. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EAST AND WET WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A LARGER SYSTEM NEAR DAYS 6/7.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 300303
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
903 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND MILD NIGHT WITH SOME MID-CLOUD TRANSITIONING ACROSS EASTERN
OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO. MONDAY IS THE LAST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK AS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE PAC NW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT
OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...W 10-20KT BECOMING SW 15-25KT
BY 18Z/MON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. RECORD/NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR MONDAY. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT...BOIPNSBOI...FOR A LIST OF CITIES WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORDS. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE 15-25 DEGREES LOWER IN SE OREGON AND 10-15 DEGREES LOWER IN SW
IDAHO. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS ALL OF SE OREGON
AND SW IDAHO DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MTNS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHERE IT
WILL REMAIN DRY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STILL EXPECTING AN
ACTIVE MID-LONG TERM AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
EACH OF THESE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A COLD FRONT...GUSTY
WINDS...AND REINFORCE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FIRST
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN KEEP
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY.
NEXT TROUGH IS EXPECTED SOMETIME THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH
OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE DEPICTED IN MODELS QUITE WELL...BUT SOME
DETAILS AND EXACT TIMING ARE WAVERING FROM RUN TO RUN. FOR FRIDAY
AND BEYOND...THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE ZONAL/SW FLOW AS
BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLOSED LOW DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE BC
AND PACNW COASTS. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EAST AND WET WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A LARGER SYSTEM NEAR DAYS 6/7.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH




000
FXUS66 KPDT 300117
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
617 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
A LITTLE WARMER OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY SO BUMPED THEN UP SLIGHTLY
IN AN EVENING FORECAST UPDATE BASED ON THE MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES
OF SUNDAY. ALSO DECREASED SKY COVER TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS MOST OF
THE CLOUDS WILL BE HIGH THIN BASED CIRRUS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TOMORROW SO HIGH TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES. EXPECT 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION SO MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS DOWN ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES. WEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BECOMING BREEZY TO
WINDY DURING THE DAY. COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS.  94

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSETTLED AND
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE DRY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT 2500-3500
FEET AT NIGHT AND 3500-4500 FEET DURING THE DAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEM THOUGH THE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UPSLOPE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LOW WILL CARVE A TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST AND A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BY SUNDAY THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MOVING ASHORE WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS IT STILL OFFSHORE. HAVE BUMPED UP A FEW PERCENT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA AND GAVE ALL THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS IN CASE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S AND MAINLY
IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 15K FEET THOUGH
SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KRDM, KBDN AND KDLS WILL REACH 10-15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  70  44  57 /   0   0  10  40
ALW  48  72  45  58 /   0   0  10  40
PSC  46  75  46  62 /   0   0  10  30
YKM  42  70  42  58 /   0   0  20  30
HRI  43  73  44  61 /   0   0  10  40
ELN  40  69  40  55 /  10   0  20  30
RDM  34  71  38  50 /   0   0  20  40
LGD  38  70  40  52 /   0   0  10  50
GCD  41  73  34  51 /   0   0  10  40
DLS  44  74  46  58 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91








000
FXUS66 KPDT 300117
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
617 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
A LITTLE WARMER OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY SO BUMPED THEN UP SLIGHTLY
IN AN EVENING FORECAST UPDATE BASED ON THE MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES
OF SUNDAY. ALSO DECREASED SKY COVER TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS MOST OF
THE CLOUDS WILL BE HIGH THIN BASED CIRRUS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TOMORROW SO HIGH TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES. EXPECT 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION SO MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS DOWN ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES. WEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BECOMING BREEZY TO
WINDY DURING THE DAY. COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS.  94

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSETTLED AND
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE DRY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT 2500-3500
FEET AT NIGHT AND 3500-4500 FEET DURING THE DAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE A
BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEM THOUGH THE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UPSLOPE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LOW WILL CARVE A TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST AND A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BY SUNDAY THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH MOVING ASHORE WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS IT STILL OFFSHORE. HAVE BUMPED UP A FEW PERCENT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA AND GAVE ALL THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS IN CASE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S AND MAINLY
IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 15K FEET THOUGH
SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH KRDM, KBDN AND KDLS WILL REACH 10-15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  70  44  57 /   0   0  10  40
ALW  48  72  45  58 /   0   0  10  40
PSC  46  75  46  62 /   0   0  10  30
YKM  42  70  42  58 /   0   0  20  30
HRI  43  73  44  61 /   0   0  10  40
ELN  40  69  40  55 /  10   0  20  30
RDM  34  71  38  50 /   0   0  20  40
LGD  38  70  40  52 /   0   0  10  50
GCD  41  73  34  51 /   0   0  10  40
DLS  44  74  46  58 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91








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