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000
FXUS65 KBOI 100350
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
850 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND BECOME
LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL SLOWLY COOL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR
AN INVERSION TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH STRATUS IN THE MORNING...SLOWLY BURNING OFF DURING
THE DAY AND REFORMING AT NIGHT...EXCEPT LINGERING IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AND THE WEISER RIVER BASIN. UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS
TONIGHT COULD HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT IN THE
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TONIGHT FOR LESS
FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE FOG HAS EVOLVED MORE INTO A LOW STRATUS
DECK IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. PATCHY VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG THIS
EVENING WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. FROM ABOUT 06Z TO 21Z
EXPECT AREAS OF IFR AND LOCAL LIFR STRATUS AND FOG...WITH TOPS NEAR
5K FT MSL. AFTER 21Z MOST STRATUS AND FOG WILL TEMPORARILY
DISSIPATE...BUT LOCAL OBSCURATION OF MOUNTAIN SLOPES BY REMAINING
STRATUS IS LIKELY. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10-20 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...INVERSION STILL IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT A CONTINUATION MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED AS THE 00Z/WED SOUNDING STILL HAD A STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 5200FT MSL /OR MIXING HEIGHT UP TO AROUND 2300FT
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...INVERSION IS LOCKED IN
PLACE IN THE VALLEYS...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MUCH WARMER TODAY
THAN EVEN YDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU...EVEN AS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COOL SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS ARE NOTABLY
LOWER THAN ALL COMPUTER GUIDANCE...AND MUCH MORE MANUAL EDITING
WAS DONE TODAY THAN USUAL. WE EXPECT THE INVERSION-INDUCED VALLEY
TEMPS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DAY-DAY IN THE SHORT TERM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST...FOR THE SAME BASIC
REASON. LOW CLOUDS EXTENDED FROM THE SRN PORTION OF THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH THE SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY
AND INTO MOST OF THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. COVERAGE EXTENDED WEST
AND SOUTHWEST INTO MOST OF MALHEUR COUNTY AND MUCH OF NRN HARNEY
COUNTY. THE UPPER WEISER RIVER BASIN AND THE VALLEYS OF BAKER
COUNTY WERE ALSO COVERED. SOME OF THIS AREA WILL LOWER BACK INTO
FOG OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BECOME DENSE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THU...BRINGING MID- AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS TO REGION. THESE WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIP THU AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT BELIEVE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOOKING FOR STABLE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...THEREFORE ANTICIPATING VALLEY INVERSIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER COULD BE LIMITED DUE TO AN INCREASED SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE IN THE VALLEYS AS THE INVERSION
BREAKS...TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS
BEGINNING MONDAY...PUSHING THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE NORTH. THE
BLUE/WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JT
AIR STAGNATION...KA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....AB/WH



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 100328
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
728 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO RAISE POPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES NEAR THE COAST. NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME (4-10AM), AS
DOES THE NEW 00Z NAM. THE FRONT IS SHALLOW WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. BUT, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE.
PRECIPITATION WON`T MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND THOUGH...PROBABLY NO
MORE THAN 20 MILES (TO THE COAST RANGES). FOR THIS REASON, POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT EXIST FROM ROSEBURG SOUTHWARD TO THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING.
SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/00Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT LIFR CIGS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL A WEAKENING FRONT
BRINGS MVFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. -MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 730 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SOUTH WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME
IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE
SWELL TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.

SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET STREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM
     TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/MAP/MSC



000
FXUS66 KMFR 100328
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
728 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO RAISE POPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES NEAR THE COAST. NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME (4-10AM), AS
DOES THE NEW 00Z NAM. THE FRONT IS SHALLOW WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. BUT, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE.
PRECIPITATION WON`T MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND THOUGH...PROBABLY NO
MORE THAN 20 MILES (TO THE COAST RANGES). FOR THIS REASON, POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT EXIST FROM ROSEBURG SOUTHWARD TO THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING.
SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/00Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT LIFR CIGS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL A WEAKENING FRONT
BRINGS MVFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. -MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 730 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SOUTH WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME
IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE
SWELL TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.

SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET STREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM
     TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/MAP/MSC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 100328
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
728 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO RAISE POPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES NEAR THE COAST. NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME (4-10AM), AS
DOES THE NEW 00Z NAM. THE FRONT IS SHALLOW WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. BUT, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE.
PRECIPITATION WON`T MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND THOUGH...PROBABLY NO
MORE THAN 20 MILES (TO THE COAST RANGES). FOR THIS REASON, POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT EXIST FROM ROSEBURG SOUTHWARD TO THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING.
SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/00Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT LIFR CIGS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL A WEAKENING FRONT
BRINGS MVFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. -MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 730 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SOUTH WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME
IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE
SWELL TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.

SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET STREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM
     TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/MAP/MSC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 100328
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
728 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO RAISE POPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES NEAR THE COAST. NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME (4-10AM), AS
DOES THE NEW 00Z NAM. THE FRONT IS SHALLOW WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. BUT, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE.
PRECIPITATION WON`T MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND THOUGH...PROBABLY NO
MORE THAN 20 MILES (TO THE COAST RANGES). FOR THIS REASON, POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT EXIST FROM ROSEBURG SOUTHWARD TO THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING.
SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/00Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT LIFR CIGS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL A WEAKENING FRONT
BRINGS MVFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. -MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 730 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SOUTH WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME
IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE
SWELL TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.

SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET STREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM
     TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/MAP/MSC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 100328
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
728 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO RAISE POPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES NEAR THE COAST. NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME (4-10AM), AS
DOES THE NEW 00Z NAM. THE FRONT IS SHALLOW WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. BUT, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE.
PRECIPITATION WON`T MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND THOUGH...PROBABLY NO
MORE THAN 20 MILES (TO THE COAST RANGES). FOR THIS REASON, POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT EXIST FROM ROSEBURG SOUTHWARD TO THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING.
SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/00Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT LIFR CIGS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL A WEAKENING FRONT
BRINGS MVFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. -MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 730 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SOUTH WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME
IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE
SWELL TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.

SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET STREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM
     TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/MAP/MSC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 100158
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
600 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

AVIATION AND MARINE UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.

SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JETSTREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWS ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/00Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT LIFR CIGS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL A WEAKENING FRONT
BRINGS MVFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. -MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SYNOPSIS FOR THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS... SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
LIGHTRAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME IN
FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDENESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE SWELL
TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ370.

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPDT 100005 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
404 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS WEATHER SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST
BUMP UP AGAINST IT. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION STARTING AS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON WEDNESDAY EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH SO
EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE PATTERN ALOFT
ACROSS NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BECOMES VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS TRACKING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE
FORM OF RAIN EACH DAY. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SWEEPS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS BEGINNING
SOON AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS INTO
IDAHO/MONTANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT WARM AIR
OVERRUNNING RAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH THEN PERSISTS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
GEORGE WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY...SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE RIDGE
WILL STILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS
IN CENTRAL OREGON AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON, BUT WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THEN A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL TRAP AND INCREASE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRODUCING LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO
INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING WELL PAST DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AT KYKM, KPSC, KRDM AND KBDN BECOMING VLIFR
AT KRDM AND KBDN, WITH KPSC AND KYKM BECOMING LIFR.

CONDITIONS AT KYKM WILL IMPROVE TO IFR BY AROUND 20Z-21Z TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS AT KPSC  WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z.
CONDITIONS AT KRDM AND KBDN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 16Z-17Z.

I KEPT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW AT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS GUIDANCE
SHOWED DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE WINDS AND/OR MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IN COMBINATION WITH A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY, SO THESE
FACTORS SHOULD WORK AGAINST FORMATION OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
AT THOSE TAF SITES TONIGHT. IF VISIBILITY DOES LOWER TO 5-6SM WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW, THESE SITES WILL
BE AMENDED OR THEIR FORECAST UPDATED BASED IN NEW SCHEDULED TAF
ISSUANCES LATER THIS EVENING IF NEW MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE CHANGES.

SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  30  46  34  50 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  31  46  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  28  47  32  47 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  29  50  32  48 /   0   0  10  20
HRI  28  46  33  49 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  20  34  27  37 /   0   0  10  20
RDM  28  60  32  59 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  34  46  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  33  56  33  52 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  32  50  37  50 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99



000
FXUS66 KPDT 100005 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
404 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS WEATHER SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST
BUMP UP AGAINST IT. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION STARTING AS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON WEDNESDAY EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH SO
EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE PATTERN ALOFT
ACROSS NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BECOMES VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS TRACKING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE
FORM OF RAIN EACH DAY. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SWEEPS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS BEGINNING
SOON AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS INTO
IDAHO/MONTANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT WARM AIR
OVERRUNNING RAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH THEN PERSISTS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
GEORGE WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY...SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE RIDGE
WILL STILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS
IN CENTRAL OREGON AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON, BUT WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THEN A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL TRAP AND INCREASE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRODUCING LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO
INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING WELL PAST DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AT KYKM, KPSC, KRDM AND KBDN BECOMING VLIFR
AT KRDM AND KBDN, WITH KPSC AND KYKM BECOMING LIFR.

CONDITIONS AT KYKM WILL IMPROVE TO IFR BY AROUND 20Z-21Z TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS AT KPSC  WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z.
CONDITIONS AT KRDM AND KBDN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 16Z-17Z.

I KEPT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW AT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS GUIDANCE
SHOWED DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE WINDS AND/OR MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IN COMBINATION WITH A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY, SO THESE
FACTORS SHOULD WORK AGAINST FORMATION OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
AT THOSE TAF SITES TONIGHT. IF VISIBILITY DOES LOWER TO 5-6SM WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW, THESE SITES WILL
BE AMENDED OR THEIR FORECAST UPDATED BASED IN NEW SCHEDULED TAF
ISSUANCES LATER THIS EVENING IF NEW MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE CHANGES.

SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  30  46  34  50 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  31  46  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  28  47  32  47 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  29  50  32  48 /   0   0  10  20
HRI  28  46  33  49 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  20  34  27  37 /   0   0  10  20
RDM  28  60  32  59 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  34  46  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  33  56  33  52 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  32  50  37  50 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99



000
FXUS66 KPDT 100005 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
404 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS WEATHER SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST
BUMP UP AGAINST IT. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION STARTING AS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON WEDNESDAY EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH SO
EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE PATTERN ALOFT
ACROSS NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BECOMES VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS TRACKING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE
FORM OF RAIN EACH DAY. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SWEEPS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS BEGINNING
SOON AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS INTO
IDAHO/MONTANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT WARM AIR
OVERRUNNING RAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH THEN PERSISTS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
GEORGE WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY...SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE RIDGE
WILL STILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS
IN CENTRAL OREGON AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON, BUT WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THEN A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL TRAP AND INCREASE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRODUCING LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO
INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING WELL PAST DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AT KYKM, KPSC, KRDM AND KBDN BECOMING VLIFR
AT KRDM AND KBDN, WITH KPSC AND KYKM BECOMING LIFR.

CONDITIONS AT KYKM WILL IMPROVE TO IFR BY AROUND 20Z-21Z TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS AT KPSC  WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z.
CONDITIONS AT KRDM AND KBDN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 16Z-17Z.

I KEPT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW AT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS GUIDANCE
SHOWED DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE WINDS AND/OR MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IN COMBINATION WITH A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY, SO THESE
FACTORS SHOULD WORK AGAINST FORMATION OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
AT THOSE TAF SITES TONIGHT. IF VISIBILITY DOES LOWER TO 5-6SM WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW, THESE SITES WILL
BE AMENDED OR THEIR FORECAST UPDATED BASED IN NEW SCHEDULED TAF
ISSUANCES LATER THIS EVENING IF NEW MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE CHANGES.

SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  30  46  34  50 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  31  46  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  28  47  32  47 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  29  50  32  48 /   0   0  10  20
HRI  28  46  33  49 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  20  34  27  37 /   0   0  10  20
RDM  28  60  32  59 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  34  46  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  33  56  33  52 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  32  50  37  50 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99



000
FXUS66 KPDT 100005 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
404 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS WEATHER SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST
BUMP UP AGAINST IT. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION STARTING AS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON WEDNESDAY EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH SO
EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE PATTERN ALOFT
ACROSS NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BECOMES VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS TRACKING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE
FORM OF RAIN EACH DAY. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SWEEPS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS BEGINNING
SOON AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS INTO
IDAHO/MONTANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT WARM AIR
OVERRUNNING RAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH THEN PERSISTS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
GEORGE WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY...SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE RIDGE
WILL STILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS
IN CENTRAL OREGON AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON, BUT WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THEN A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL TRAP AND INCREASE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRODUCING LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO
INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING WELL PAST DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AT KYKM, KPSC, KRDM AND KBDN BECOMING VLIFR
AT KRDM AND KBDN, WITH KPSC AND KYKM BECOMING LIFR.

CONDITIONS AT KYKM WILL IMPROVE TO IFR BY AROUND 20Z-21Z TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS AT KPSC  WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z.
CONDITIONS AT KRDM AND KBDN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 16Z-17Z.

I KEPT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW AT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS GUIDANCE
SHOWED DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE WINDS AND/OR MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IN COMBINATION WITH A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY, SO THESE
FACTORS SHOULD WORK AGAINST FORMATION OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
AT THOSE TAF SITES TONIGHT. IF VISIBILITY DOES LOWER TO 5-6SM WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW, THESE SITES WILL
BE AMENDED OR THEIR FORECAST UPDATED BASED IN NEW SCHEDULED TAF
ISSUANCES LATER THIS EVENING IF NEW MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE CHANGES.

SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  30  46  34  50 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  31  46  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  28  47  32  47 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  29  50  32  48 /   0   0  10  20
HRI  28  46  33  49 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  20  34  27  37 /   0   0  10  20
RDM  28  60  32  59 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  34  46  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  33  56  33  52 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  32  50  37  50 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99



000
FXUS66 KPDT 100005 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
404 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS WEATHER SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST
BUMP UP AGAINST IT. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION STARTING AS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON WEDNESDAY EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH SO
EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE PATTERN ALOFT
ACROSS NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BECOMES VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS TRACKING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE
FORM OF RAIN EACH DAY. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SWEEPS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS BEGINNING
SOON AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS INTO
IDAHO/MONTANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT WARM AIR
OVERRUNNING RAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH THEN PERSISTS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
GEORGE WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY...SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE RIDGE
WILL STILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS
IN CENTRAL OREGON AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON, BUT WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THEN A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL TRAP AND INCREASE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRODUCING LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO
INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING WELL PAST DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AT KYKM, KPSC, KRDM AND KBDN BECOMING VLIFR
AT KRDM AND KBDN, WITH KPSC AND KYKM BECOMING LIFR.

CONDITIONS AT KYKM WILL IMPROVE TO IFR BY AROUND 20Z-21Z TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS AT KPSC  WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z.
CONDITIONS AT KRDM AND KBDN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 16Z-17Z.

I KEPT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW AT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS GUIDANCE
SHOWED DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE WINDS AND/OR MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IN COMBINATION WITH A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY, SO THESE
FACTORS SHOULD WORK AGAINST FORMATION OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
AT THOSE TAF SITES TONIGHT. IF VISIBILITY DOES LOWER TO 5-6SM WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW, THESE SITES WILL
BE AMENDED OR THEIR FORECAST UPDATED BASED IN NEW SCHEDULED TAF
ISSUANCES LATER THIS EVENING IF NEW MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE CHANGES.

SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  30  46  34  50 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  31  46  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  28  47  32  47 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  29  50  32  48 /   0   0  10  20
HRI  28  46  33  49 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  20  34  27  37 /   0   0  10  20
RDM  28  60  32  59 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  34  46  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  33  56  33  52 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  32  50  37  50 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99




000
FXUS66 KPDT 092244
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
143 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS WEATHER SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST
BUMP UP AGAINST IT. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION STARTING AS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON WEDNESDAY EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH SO
EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.


.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE PATTERN ALOFT
ACROSS NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BECOMES VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS TRACKING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE
FORM OF RAIN EACH DAY. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SWEEPS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS BEGINNING
SOON AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS INTO
IDAHO/MONTANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT WARM AIR
OVERRUNNING RAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH THEN PERSISTS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
GEORGE WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY...SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE RIDGE
WILL STILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS
IN CENTRAL OREGON AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON, BUT WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.  POLAN


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THEN A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL TRAP AND INCREASE MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRODUCING LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING WELL
PAST DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE AT KYKM, KPSC, KRDM AND KBDN BECOMING VLIFR AT KRDM AND
KBDN, WITH KPSC AND KYKM BECOMING LIFR.

I KEPT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW AT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS GUIDANCE
SHOWED DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE WINDS YIELDING MIXING IN COMBINATION WITH
A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY, THESE FACTORS SHOULD WORK AGAINST
FORMATION OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AT THOSE TAF SITES TONIGHT.
IF VISIBILITY DOES LOWER TO 5-6SM WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KDLS, KPDT AND KALW, THESE SITES WILL BE AMENDED OR THEIR FORECAST
UPDATED WITH NEW SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCES LATER TODAY IF MODEL
FORECAST GUIDANCE CHANGES.

SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POLAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  30  46  34  50 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  31  46  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  28  47  32  47 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  29  50  32  48 /   0   0  10  20
HRI  28  46  33  49 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  20  34  27  37 /   0   0  10  20
RDM  28  60  32  59 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  34  46  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  33  56  33  52 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  32  50  37  50 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99



000
FXUS66 KPDT 092244
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
143 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS WEATHER SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST
BUMP UP AGAINST IT. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION STARTING AS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON WEDNESDAY EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH SO
EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.


.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE PATTERN ALOFT
ACROSS NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BECOMES VERY
PROGRESSIVE WITH A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS TRACKING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE
FORM OF RAIN EACH DAY. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CASCADES FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SWEEPS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS BEGINNING
SOON AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS INTO
IDAHO/MONTANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT WARM AIR
OVERRUNNING RAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH THEN PERSISTS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
GEORGE WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY...SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE RIDGE
WILL STILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS
IN CENTRAL OREGON AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON, BUT WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.  POLAN


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THEN A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL TRAP AND INCREASE MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRODUCING LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING WELL
PAST DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE AT KYKM, KPSC, KRDM AND KBDN BECOMING VLIFR AT KRDM AND
KBDN, WITH KPSC AND KYKM BECOMING LIFR.

I KEPT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW AT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS GUIDANCE
SHOWED DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE WINDS YIELDING MIXING IN COMBINATION WITH
A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY, THESE FACTORS SHOULD WORK AGAINST
FORMATION OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AT THOSE TAF SITES TONIGHT.
IF VISIBILITY DOES LOWER TO 5-6SM WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KDLS, KPDT AND KALW, THESE SITES WILL BE AMENDED OR THEIR FORECAST
UPDATED WITH NEW SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCES LATER TODAY IF MODEL
FORECAST GUIDANCE CHANGES.

SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POLAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  30  46  34  50 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  31  46  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  28  47  32  47 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  29  50  32  48 /   0   0  10  20
HRI  28  46  33  49 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  20  34  27  37 /   0   0  10  20
RDM  28  60  32  59 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  34  46  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  33  56  33  52 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  32  50  37  50 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 092243
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
243 PM PST TUE FEB  9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES OVER REGION MAINTAINING DRY AND MILD AIR MASS
TODAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN INLAND NORTH
OF PORTLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. COOLER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC HAS MOVED
CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS (WHICH HAS
REMAINED STEADY OVER THE PACIFIC NW THE PAST FEW DAYS) HAS MOVED EAST
OVER IDAHO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL LOWS EMBEDDED WITH IN THE
UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE. THESE LOWS WILL BRING A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST FRONT WEAKENING OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE STREAMING ACROSS NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON. INLAND VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF
DENSE FOG. EAST WINDS ARE WEAKENING THROUGH THE GORGE THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL NOT LIKELY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE NORTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY TO BE VULNERABLE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG OR STRATUS IS MORE
LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND ALONG THE COAST.

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF THE CA/OR BORDER WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE OREGON COAST THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT....AND THE COAST AND COAST RANGE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN FOR THE COAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INLAND...MAINLY NORTH OF PORTLAND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.15 INCH WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND MOST INLAND AREAS WILL NOT SEE
ANY RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND LIKELY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH POP LOW QPF RAIN THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD OR
OCCLUDED FRONT BRINGS MORE NOTICEABLE AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8000
FEET. THE COAST...COAST RANGE...AND CASCADES CAN EXPECT 0.75 TO 1
INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 0.25 TO
0.5 INCH ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 40S.  TJ

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FOR COOLER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
TO NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND FOR RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW
THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW IS
DIMINISHING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS COULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...BUT THIS LIKELY DEPENDS ON WINDS DEVELOPING A WEAK
ONSHORE COMPONENT WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING AT KONP AS OPPOSED TO
KAST. RIGHT NOW THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TO KEEP COASTAL TERMINALS VFR OVERNIGHT UNTIL LOWER CLOUDS START
TO MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INLAND...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST
WINDS FROM THE GORGE WILL BE DECREASING THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
STILL KEEP KTTD AND PROBABLY KPDX VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS
FAIRLY PATCHY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG DOWN
NEAR KEUG WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHER. ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND DRIFTING INTO THE TERMINAL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY. EAST WINDS DECREASING OUT OF THE WEST END OF THE GORGE.
-MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE VEERING TO SOUTHERLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTING TO 10 TO 20 KT. WINDS FOR THE MOST
PART SHOULD STAY UNDER 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXCEPT
FOR A FEW LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH...DROPPING OFF BEHIND
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 7 TO
8 FT...COULD INCREASE TO 9 FT WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
AND SEAS UP INTO THE LOWER TEENS. A THIRD SYSTEM FOLLOWS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND KEEPS SEAS ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY SUNDAY.
-MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
     OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 10 NM.

&&
$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 092228
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
228 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.

SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JETSTREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWS ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/18Z TAF CYCLE...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LIFT
TO VFR BY 20Z. OTHERWISE THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER TODAY AND WE CAN
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF AREA. IN SPITE OF
THE DRIER AIR...WE STILL EXPECT IFR CIGS TO RETURN TO THE ROSEBURG
AREA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH SMALLER THAN IN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. /FB


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM PST MON FEB 9 2016...A NARROW BAND OF 10 FT
SWELL IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH BEND SOUTH TO
AROUND PORT ORFORD. WE FEEL THAT THIS FEATURE IS TEMPORARY AS THE
WAVEWATCH BULLETIN SHOWS NO MAJOR SWELL TODAY, AND HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE
THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES SHORE.

A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INLAND THESE FRONTS WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IN MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND BEFORE ANY FRONT
IS STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE MORE THAN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.

A LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN UP TO 18 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A HIGH SURF CONDITION. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ370.

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 092156
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
256 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...INVERSION IS LOCKED IN
PLACE IN THE VALLEYS...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MUCH WARMER TODAY
THAN EVEN YDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU...EVEN AS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COOL SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS ARE NOTABLY
LOWER THAN ALL COMPUTER GUIDANCE...AND MUCH MORE MANUAL EDITING
WAS DONE TODAY THAN USUAL. WE EXPECT THE INVERSION-INDUCED VALLEY
TEMPS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DAY-DAY IN THE SHORT TERM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST...FOR THE SAME BASIC
REASON. LOW CLOUDS EXTENDED FROM THE SRN PORTION OF THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH THE SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY
AND INTO MOST OF THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. COVERAGE EXTENDED WEST
AND SOUTHWEST INTO MOST OF MALHEUR COUNTY AND MUCH OF NRN HARNEY
COUNTY. THE UPPER WEISER RIVER BASIN AND THE VALLEYS OF BAKER
COUNTY WERE ALSO COVERED. SOME OF THIS AREA WILL LOWER BACK INTO
FOG OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BECOME DENSE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THU...BRINGING MID- AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS TO REGION. THESE WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIP THU AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT BELIEVE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOOKING FOR STABLE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...THEREFORE ANTICIPATING VALLEY INVERSIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER COULD BE LIMITED DUE TO AN INCREASED SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE IN THE VALLEYS AS THE INVERSION
BREAKS...TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS
BEGINNING MONDAY...PUSHING THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE NORTH. THE
BLUE/WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...KTWF SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY TAF SITE THAT HAS NOT CLEARED
OUT AS OF TUE/22Z. EXPECT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS...WITH
CONDITIONS RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR...TO RETURN THIS EVENING AFTER
WED/03Z UNDER CONTINUED INVERSION CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND DURATION IS BELOW AVERAGE. INVERSION
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE
REGION. CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS ABOVE THE INVERTED
VALLEYS. SURFACE WINDS...EASTERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS...UP TO 15 KTS
AT KJER. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING WEST 10-20 KTS BY
WED/18Z THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...INVERSION STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW LEVEL AIR IS TRAPPED...AND WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THU. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY
TO SEE THE SAME PATTERN REPEATED EACH DAY. MIXING LEVEL IS AROUND
2000 FEET OFF THE GROUND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....AB/WH
AVIATION.....AB
AIR STAGNATION...SP




000
FXUS66 KPDT 091816 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1015 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE
AN INVERSION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH
MOST BURNING OFF BY AFTERNOON BUT WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE IN THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THEN A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL TRAP AND INCREASE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRODUCING LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO
INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING WELL PAST DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AT KYKM, KPSC, KRDM AND KBDN BECOMING VLIFR
AT KRDM AND KBDN, WITH KPSC AND KYKM BECOMING LIFR.

I KEPT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW AT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS GUIDANCE
SHOWED DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE WINDS YIELDING MIXING IN COMBINATION WITH
A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY, THESE FACTORS SHOULD WORK AGAINST
FORMATION OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AT THOSE TAF SITES TONIGHT.
IF VISIBILITY DOES LOWER TO 5-6SM WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KDLS, KPDT AND KALW, THESE SITES WILL BE AMENDED OR THEIR FORECAST
UPDATED WITH NEW SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCES LATER TODAY IF MODEL
FORECAST GUIDANCE CHANGES.

SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  30  51  36 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  48  31  50  38 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  50  28  50  34 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  52  29  48  34 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  48  28  50  35 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  39  20  46  32 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  65  28  58  36 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  49  34  48  35 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  60  33  54  30 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  54  32  54  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99




000
FXUS66 KPDT 091816 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1015 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE
AN INVERSION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH
MOST BURNING OFF BY AFTERNOON BUT WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE IN THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THEN A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL TRAP AND INCREASE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRODUCING LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO
INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING WELL PAST DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AT KYKM, KPSC, KRDM AND KBDN BECOMING VLIFR
AT KRDM AND KBDN, WITH KPSC AND KYKM BECOMING LIFR.

I KEPT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW AT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS GUIDANCE
SHOWED DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE WINDS YIELDING MIXING IN COMBINATION WITH
A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY, THESE FACTORS SHOULD WORK AGAINST
FORMATION OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AT THOSE TAF SITES TONIGHT.
IF VISIBILITY DOES LOWER TO 5-6SM WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KDLS, KPDT AND KALW, THESE SITES WILL BE AMENDED OR THEIR FORECAST
UPDATED WITH NEW SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCES LATER TODAY IF MODEL
FORECAST GUIDANCE CHANGES.

SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  30  51  36 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  48  31  50  38 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  50  28  50  34 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  52  29  48  34 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  48  28  50  35 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  39  20  46  32 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  65  28  58  36 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  49  34  48  35 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  60  33  54  30 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  54  32  54  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99



000
FXUS66 KPDT 091816 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1015 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE
AN INVERSION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH
MOST BURNING OFF BY AFTERNOON BUT WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE IN THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THEN A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL TRAP AND INCREASE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRODUCING LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO
INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING WELL PAST DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AT KYKM, KPSC, KRDM AND KBDN BECOMING VLIFR
AT KRDM AND KBDN, WITH KPSC AND KYKM BECOMING LIFR.

I KEPT KDLS, KPDT AND KALW AT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS GUIDANCE
SHOWED DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE WINDS YIELDING MIXING IN COMBINATION WITH
A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY, THESE FACTORS SHOULD WORK AGAINST
FORMATION OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AT THOSE TAF SITES TONIGHT.
IF VISIBILITY DOES LOWER TO 5-6SM WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KDLS, KPDT AND KALW, THESE SITES WILL BE AMENDED OR THEIR FORECAST
UPDATED WITH NEW SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCES LATER TODAY IF MODEL
FORECAST GUIDANCE CHANGES.

SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  30  51  36 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  48  31  50  38 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  50  28  50  34 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  52  29  48  34 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  48  28  50  35 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  39  20  46  32 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  65  28  58  36 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  49  34  48  35 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  60  33  54  30 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  54  32  54  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99




000
FXUS66 KPQR 091714
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
913 AM PST TUE FEB  9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES OVER REGION MAINTAINING DRY AND MILD AIR MASS
TODAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN INLAND NORTH
OF PORTLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY
SPREAD MORE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  COOLER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE
LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING AND HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE AND INVERSION HOLDS OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO WARM INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

EAST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE GORGE WITH GUSTS 50 TO 70 MPH THROUGH
THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND 35 MPH NEAR THE COLUMBIA GORGE ENTRANCE
(TROUTDALE AREA). THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...THEN WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COASTAL AREAS AND AREAS FAR FROM THE GORGE
WILL HAVE A CHANGE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT NEARS
THE COAST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
OFFSHORE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND TODAY AND HAVE UPDATED THE SKY
COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE COAST TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER
ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT
AND ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS  SHOULD LIMIT RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE
WINDS WITH THE FRONT ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND CAN EXPECT SOME PATCHY
COASTAL AND INTERIOR VALLEY FOG.

THE WEAKENING FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW THAT IS AROUND 700 MILES
OFFSHORE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER
LOW FORMING SW OF THE FIRST LOW...NEAR 40N 150W. A WEAK FRONT WITH
THIS SECOND LOW WILL MERGE WITH THE FIRST FRONT ALONG THE COAST WED
MORNING AND SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INLAND INLAND...MAINLY NORTH OF
PORTLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
LOW...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH. A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TJ

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR A COOLER AND MOISTER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TOTHE CASCADE PASSES THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON
THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SUNNY
AND WARM WEATHER. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT THE COAST PLUS TERMINALS IN THE NORTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY DUE OFFSHORE WINDS KEEPING ATMOSPHERE MIXED.
EASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY
NEAR THE WEST END OF THE GORGE. FOG APPEARS SHALLOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AND IS STAYING SOUTH OF KSLE. EXPECT KEUG TO BREAK OUT
OF FOG AND IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL SEE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. THIS MAY HINDER WIDESPREAD
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. WITH WEAKENING WINDS FROM THE
GORGE...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AROUND KHIO BUT PROBABLY NOT
KPDX. DEFINITELY NO FOG AT KTTD AS THIS SITE WILL STILL HAVE
EASTERLY WINDS. SHOULD SEE FOG REDEVELOP AT KEUG TONIGHT...AND
PATCHY FOG COULD IMPACT KSLE. ALONG THE COAST...WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT TO THE COAST AROUND
03-06Z THIS EVENING LIKELY LOWERING CIGS AND VIS TO IFR AND
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AT THE TERMINAL. GUSTY EASTERLY HEADWINDS FOR
DEPARTURES THROUGH 20Z WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR UNDER SLIGHTLY
VEERING WINDS THROUGH LOWEST 2000 FT AGL. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AND SWING WINDS
FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. FEEL THERE
WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS BUT CONFIDENCE IN A
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND EVENT IS LOW. HAVE BETTER
CONFIDENCE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL
SWING NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS LIKELY. BUT EVEN THEN...NOTABLE DISCREPANCY AMONG THE MODELS
AS TO THE STRENGTH WITH ONE KEEPING THIS AS A NON-EVENT. WILL LET
THINGS SHAKE OUT A BIT BEFORE ISSUING PRODUCTS YET. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING POSSIBLE GALES SATURDAY EVENING UNDER
A PASSING FRONT BUT BEGIN TO STRAY AGAIN THEREAFTER.

SEAS HAVE REMAINED A BIT MORE STUBBORN AND ARE HOVERING 10-11 FT
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. HAVE TIMED IN THE DECAY FROM BUOY
5 AND FEEL THEY WILL DROP SEE THE EXPECTED DROP OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.

SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO 8 TO 10 FT THIS EVENING AND SHOULD GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 7 FT TUESDAY. WILL SEE SEAS BUILD BACK
UP AROUND 10 FT WITH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WEDNESDAY. WHILE A
LONGER PERIOD MIXED SWELL ARRIVES THURSDAY SOLIDLY PUSHING SEAS
INTO THE LOWER TEENS. ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE
WA...NONE
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 091714
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
913 AM PST TUE FEB  9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES OVER REGION MAINTAINING DRY AND MILD AIR MASS
TODAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN INLAND NORTH
OF PORTLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY
SPREAD MORE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  COOLER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE
LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING AND HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE AND INVERSION HOLDS OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TO WARM INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

EAST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE GORGE WITH GUSTS 50 TO 70 MPH THROUGH
THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND 35 MPH NEAR THE COLUMBIA GORGE ENTRANCE
(TROUTDALE AREA). THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...THEN WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COASTAL AREAS AND AREAS FAR FROM THE GORGE
WILL HAVE A CHANGE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT NEARS
THE COAST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
OFFSHORE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND TODAY AND HAVE UPDATED THE SKY
COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE COAST TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER
ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT
AND ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS  SHOULD LIMIT RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE
WINDS WITH THE FRONT ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND CAN EXPECT SOME PATCHY
COASTAL AND INTERIOR VALLEY FOG.

THE WEAKENING FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW THAT IS AROUND 700 MILES
OFFSHORE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER
LOW FORMING SW OF THE FIRST LOW...NEAR 40N 150W. A WEAK FRONT WITH
THIS SECOND LOW WILL MERGE WITH THE FIRST FRONT ALONG THE COAST WED
MORNING AND SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INLAND INLAND...MAINLY NORTH OF
PORTLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
LOW...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH. A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TJ

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR A COOLER AND MOISTER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TOTHE CASCADE PASSES THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON
THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SUNNY
AND WARM WEATHER. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT THE COAST PLUS TERMINALS IN THE NORTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY DUE OFFSHORE WINDS KEEPING ATMOSPHERE MIXED.
EASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY
NEAR THE WEST END OF THE GORGE. FOG APPEARS SHALLOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AND IS STAYING SOUTH OF KSLE. EXPECT KEUG TO BREAK OUT
OF FOG AND IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL SEE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. THIS MAY HINDER WIDESPREAD
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. WITH WEAKENING WINDS FROM THE
GORGE...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AROUND KHIO BUT PROBABLY NOT
KPDX. DEFINITELY NO FOG AT KTTD AS THIS SITE WILL STILL HAVE
EASTERLY WINDS. SHOULD SEE FOG REDEVELOP AT KEUG TONIGHT...AND
PATCHY FOG COULD IMPACT KSLE. ALONG THE COAST...WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT TO THE COAST AROUND
03-06Z THIS EVENING LIKELY LOWERING CIGS AND VIS TO IFR AND
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AT THE TERMINAL. GUSTY EASTERLY HEADWINDS FOR
DEPARTURES THROUGH 20Z WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR UNDER SLIGHTLY
VEERING WINDS THROUGH LOWEST 2000 FT AGL. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AND SWING WINDS
FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. FEEL THERE
WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS BUT CONFIDENCE IN A
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND EVENT IS LOW. HAVE BETTER
CONFIDENCE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL
SWING NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS LIKELY. BUT EVEN THEN...NOTABLE DISCREPANCY AMONG THE MODELS
AS TO THE STRENGTH WITH ONE KEEPING THIS AS A NON-EVENT. WILL LET
THINGS SHAKE OUT A BIT BEFORE ISSUING PRODUCTS YET. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING POSSIBLE GALES SATURDAY EVENING UNDER
A PASSING FRONT BUT BEGIN TO STRAY AGAIN THEREAFTER.

SEAS HAVE REMAINED A BIT MORE STUBBORN AND ARE HOVERING 10-11 FT
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. HAVE TIMED IN THE DECAY FROM BUOY
5 AND FEEL THEY WILL DROP SEE THE EXPECTED DROP OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.

SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO 8 TO 10 FT THIS EVENING AND SHOULD GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 7 FT TUESDAY. WILL SEE SEAS BUILD BACK
UP AROUND 10 FT WITH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WEDNESDAY. WHILE A
LONGER PERIOD MIXED SWELL ARRIVES THURSDAY SOLIDLY PUSHING SEAS
INTO THE LOWER TEENS. ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE
WA...NONE
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 091704 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1004 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...INVERSION CONDITIONS PERSIST AND ARE WORSENING THIS
MORNING IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOG SPREAD INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST OREGON THIS MORNING AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED THERE AND IN THE UPPER WEISER RIVER BASIN THROUGH NOON PST
/ 1 PM MST. UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO TRY TO REFLECT WHERE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CURRENTLY EXIST AND WHERE WE EXPECT THEM TO
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
AS WELL...INCLUDING DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES
THE UPPER WEISER RIVER BASIN...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY...AND
MUCH OF THE REST OF MALHEUR COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED INVERSION CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES...SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS...WITH
CONDITIONS RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR...IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE
AND DURATION IS BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS
ABOVE THE INVERTED VALLEYS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE...THOUGH
MAINLY EAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 5-15 KTS
BECOMING WEST 10-20 KTS BY WED/18Z THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...12Z/TUE SOUNDING AT BOISE REVEALED A STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION BETWEEN 5300 AND 9600 FEET MSL. THIS
INVERSION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT HELPED INITIATE THIS INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TODAY AND THE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL AND
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR IN THE VALLEYS WILL HELP MAINTAIN AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG BELOW AROUND 5000 FT MSL THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FOG AND STRATUS HAVE BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE SINCE
YESTERDAY AS LOW-LEVEL INVERSION INTENSIFIES.  FOG/STRATUS HAVE
EXPANDED FROM THE MAGIC VALLEY DOWN THE SNAKE RIVER TOWARD
MOUNTAIN HOME DURING THE NIGHT.  A SECOND LARGER AREA WAS IN THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND GEM COUNTY.  THE FOG AND STRATUS
SHOULD REACH MAXIMUM EXTENT THIS MORNING THEN DECREASE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AND MOST OF EASTERN OREGON...SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY...AND ABOUT THE SAME AS
YESTERDAY ELSEWHERE.  WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ABOVE THE VALLEYS
IN OREGON WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S.
LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THE 500 MB RIDGE IS THE STRONGEST ON RECORD BY HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE
FOR THE MONTHS OF FEBRUARY MARCH AND APRIL AS FAR BACK AS 1948.
LOW SUN ANGLE...SNOW COVER...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE KEEPING THE SURFACE
RELATIVELY COLD AND MAINTAINING THE INVERSION.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN FRIDAY WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
WEST. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BUT VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO AN
INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
THE VALLEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRATUS COVERAGE WHICH FAVORS THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON IDZ033.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST /NOON PST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....AB
AIR STAGNATION...SP/LC
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 091704
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1004 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED INVERSION CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES...SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS...WITH
CONDITIONS RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR...IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE
AND DURATION IS BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS
ABOVE THE INVERTED VALLEYS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE...THOUGH
MAINLY EAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 5-15 KTS
BECOMING WEST 10-20 KTS BY WED/18Z THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...12Z/TUE SOUNDING AT BOISE REVEALED A STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION BETWEEN 5300 AND 9600 FEET MSL. THIS
INVERSION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT HELPED INITIATE THIS INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TODAY AND THE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL AND
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR IN THE VALLEYS WILL HELP MAINTAIN AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG BELOW AROUND 5000 FT MSL THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FOG AND STRATUS HAVE BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE SINCE
YESTERDAY AS LOW-LEVEL INVERSION INTENSIFIES.  FOG/STRATUS HAVE
EXPANDED FROM THE MAGIC VALLEY DOWN THE SNAKE RIVER TOWARD
MOUNTAIN HOME DURING THE NIGHT.  A SECOND LARGER AREA WAS IN THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND GEM COUNTY.  THE FOG AND STRATUS
SHOULD REACH MAXIMUM EXTENT THIS MORNING THEN DECREASE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AND MOST OF EASTERN OREGON...SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY...AND ABOUT THE SAME AS
YESTERDAY ELSEWHERE.  WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ABOVE THE VALLEYS
IN OREGON WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S.
LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THE 500 MB RIDGE IS THE STRONGEST ON RECORD BY HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE
FOR THE MONTHS OF FEBRUARY MARCH AND APRIL AS FAR BACK AS 1948.
LOW SUN ANGLE...SNOW COVER...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE KEEPING THE SURFACE
RELATIVELY COLD AND MAINTAINING THE INVERSION.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN FRIDAY WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
WEST. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BUT VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO AN
INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
THE VALLEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRATUS COVERAGE WHICH FAVORS THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON IDZ033.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST /NOON PST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....AB
AIR STAGNATION...SP/LC
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 091704 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1004 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...INVERSION CONDITIONS PERSIST AND ARE WORSENING THIS
MORNING IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOG SPREAD INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST OREGON THIS MORNING AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED THERE AND IN THE UPPER WEISER RIVER BASIN THROUGH NOON PST
/ 1 PM MST. UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO TRY TO REFLECT WHERE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CURRENTLY EXIST AND WHERE WE EXPECT THEM TO
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
AS WELL...INCLUDING DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES
THE UPPER WEISER RIVER BASIN...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY...AND
MUCH OF THE REST OF MALHEUR COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED INVERSION CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES...SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS...WITH
CONDITIONS RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR...IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE
AND DURATION IS BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS
ABOVE THE INVERTED VALLEYS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE...THOUGH
MAINLY EAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 5-15 KTS
BECOMING WEST 10-20 KTS BY WED/18Z THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...12Z/TUE SOUNDING AT BOISE REVEALED A STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION BETWEEN 5300 AND 9600 FEET MSL. THIS
INVERSION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT HELPED INITIATE THIS INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TODAY AND THE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL AND
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR IN THE VALLEYS WILL HELP MAINTAIN AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG BELOW AROUND 5000 FT MSL THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FOG AND STRATUS HAVE BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE SINCE
YESTERDAY AS LOW-LEVEL INVERSION INTENSIFIES.  FOG/STRATUS HAVE
EXPANDED FROM THE MAGIC VALLEY DOWN THE SNAKE RIVER TOWARD
MOUNTAIN HOME DURING THE NIGHT.  A SECOND LARGER AREA WAS IN THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND GEM COUNTY.  THE FOG AND STRATUS
SHOULD REACH MAXIMUM EXTENT THIS MORNING THEN DECREASE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AND MOST OF EASTERN OREGON...SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY...AND ABOUT THE SAME AS
YESTERDAY ELSEWHERE.  WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ABOVE THE VALLEYS
IN OREGON WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S.
LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THE 500 MB RIDGE IS THE STRONGEST ON RECORD BY HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE
FOR THE MONTHS OF FEBRUARY MARCH AND APRIL AS FAR BACK AS 1948.
LOW SUN ANGLE...SNOW COVER...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE KEEPING THE SURFACE
RELATIVELY COLD AND MAINTAINING THE INVERSION.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN FRIDAY WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
WEST. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BUT VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO AN
INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
THE VALLEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRATUS COVERAGE WHICH FAVORS THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON IDZ033.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST /NOON PST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....AB
AIR STAGNATION...SP/LC
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 091704 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1004 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...INVERSION CONDITIONS PERSIST AND ARE WORSENING THIS
MORNING IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOG SPREAD INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST OREGON THIS MORNING AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED THERE AND IN THE UPPER WEISER RIVER BASIN THROUGH NOON PST
/ 1 PM MST. UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO TRY TO REFLECT WHERE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CURRENTLY EXIST AND WHERE WE EXPECT THEM TO
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
AS WELL...INCLUDING DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES
THE UPPER WEISER RIVER BASIN...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY...AND
MUCH OF THE REST OF MALHEUR COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED INVERSION CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES...SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS...WITH
CONDITIONS RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR...IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE
AND DURATION IS BELOW AVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CIRRUS
ABOVE THE INVERTED VALLEYS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE...THOUGH
MAINLY EAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 5-15 KTS
BECOMING WEST 10-20 KTS BY WED/18Z THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...12Z/TUE SOUNDING AT BOISE REVEALED A STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION BETWEEN 5300 AND 9600 FEET MSL. THIS
INVERSION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT HELPED INITIATE THIS INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TODAY AND THE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL AND
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR IN THE VALLEYS WILL HELP MAINTAIN AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG BELOW AROUND 5000 FT MSL THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FOG AND STRATUS HAVE BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE SINCE
YESTERDAY AS LOW-LEVEL INVERSION INTENSIFIES.  FOG/STRATUS HAVE
EXPANDED FROM THE MAGIC VALLEY DOWN THE SNAKE RIVER TOWARD
MOUNTAIN HOME DURING THE NIGHT.  A SECOND LARGER AREA WAS IN THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND GEM COUNTY.  THE FOG AND STRATUS
SHOULD REACH MAXIMUM EXTENT THIS MORNING THEN DECREASE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AND MOST OF EASTERN OREGON...SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY...AND ABOUT THE SAME AS
YESTERDAY ELSEWHERE.  WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ABOVE THE VALLEYS
IN OREGON WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S.
LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THE 500 MB RIDGE IS THE STRONGEST ON RECORD BY HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE
FOR THE MONTHS OF FEBRUARY MARCH AND APRIL AS FAR BACK AS 1948.
LOW SUN ANGLE...SNOW COVER...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE KEEPING THE SURFACE
RELATIVELY COLD AND MAINTAINING THE INVERSION.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN FRIDAY WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
WEST. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BUT VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO AN
INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
THE VALLEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRATUS COVERAGE WHICH FAVORS THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON IDZ033.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST /NOON PST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....AB
AIR STAGNATION...SP/LC
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 091652 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
852 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

CORRECTED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. CURRENT VISIBLE
IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ALSO LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND ILLINOIS
VALLEY. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WEATHER THIS
MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALSO ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT SOME ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF AT THE COAST WITH THE NAM
SHOWING SOME QPF INLAND IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, BUT SUSPECT THE NAM
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH THIS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE OREGON COAST.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/18Z TAF CYCLE...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LIFT
TO VFR BY 20Z. OTHERWISE THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER TODAY AND WE CAN
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF AREA. IN SPITE OF
THE DRIER AIR...WE STILL EXPECT IFR CIGS TO RETURN TO THE ROSEBURG
AREA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH SMALLER THAN IN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM PST MON FEB 9 2016...A NARROW BAND OF 10 FT
SWELL IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH BEND SOUTH TO
AROUND PORT ORFORD. WE FEEL THAT THIS FEATURE IS TEMPORARY AS THE
WAVEWATCH BULLETIN SHOWS NO MAJOR SWELL TODAY, AND HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE
THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA WILL GRADUALL MOVE THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES SHORE.

A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
WEEKAND WILL BRING OCCASIOANL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INLAND THESE FRONTS WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IN MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND BEFORE ANY FRONT
IS STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE MORE THAN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.

A LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN UP TO 18 SECONDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A HIGH SURF CONDITION. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EAST TODAY, AND THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SLIDE INLAND AS
WELL. IN A NORMAL SUMMER TIME RIDGING PATTERN, THIS WOULD SIGNAL
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE STRETCH OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER, I THINK
YESTERDAY`S RECORD BREAKING WARMTH WAS A FUNCTION OF THE INCREASED
MIXING DRIVEN BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW WHICH SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AS
GRADIENTS RELAX AND EVEN BECOME ONSHORE. GUIDANCE SHOWS 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALLING BY ABOUT 70 METERS AND 850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 5C LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS MAKES A REPEAT OF
YESTERDAY UNLIKELY. THAT SAID, IT WILL STILL BE SUNNY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN OVER MOST INLAND SECTIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OR PUT ANOTHER
WAY: WE WOULD ONLY EXPECT TO SEE WEATHER THIS WARM IN FEBRUARY
ABOUT ONCE EVERY 5-10 YEARS. I DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP OVER
INLAND AREAS A LITTLE TODAY, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 71 IN
MEDFORD WOULD BE A RECORD IF CORRECT.

WE STILL HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST THIS MORNING, AND THEY`LL
LIKELY GET WARM AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL, OBVIOUSLY, PUT THE BREAKS ON ANY
WARMING. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A NOTICEABLE STRATUS SURGE ABOUT
200 MILES OFF BROOKINGS WHICH IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD THE
COAST. ALTHOUGH IT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET, IT IS A SIGN
OF THE CHANGING PATTERN.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST IS THE UMPQUA BASIN AROUND ROSEBURG WHERE
STRATUS TOOK FOREVER TO BURN OFF YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT, THEY
MISSED OUT ON THE WARMTH, AND STRATUS HAS ALREADY RETURNED AND
WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN AGAIN TODAY, SO WE`RE STILL ONLY
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 50S THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN, OUR FLOW BECOMES WHOLLY
ONSHORE, AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ON INTO THURSDAY AS
WELL. HOWEVER, WE DON`T EXPECT TO SEE RAIN MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
INLAND UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES IN. FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD, EXCEPT POPS WERE INCREASED
OVER THE WATERS AND COAST AND INTRODUCED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. -WRIGHT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 214 PM PST MON FEB 8
2016/

THE CONFIDENCE LESSENS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL TRY
TO REBUILD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT WITH A WARM
FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH. MODEL SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE LARGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE
RIDGE FAIRLY ROBUSTLY, WHILE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM REMAIN FLAT
ENOUGH THAT A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CAN STILL BRING SOME RAIN,
MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
CONTINUITY LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION AND HAVE LEFT
THIS MOSTLY AS IS.

BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS,
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THEN. SPILDE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 091652
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
852 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. CURRENT VISIBLE
IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ALSO LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND ILLINOIS
VALLEY. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WEATHER THIS
MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALSO ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT SOME ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF AT THE COAST WITH THE NAM
SHOWING SOME QPF INLAND IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, BUT SUSPECT THE NAM
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH THIS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE OREGON COAST.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/12Z TAF CYCLE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. WHILE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE ON THE IMMEDIATE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY, NONE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE TAF PERIOD AT THE 4 PRIMARY AIRFIELDS. MEANWHILE, LIFR
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE AGAIN PRESENT IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF
JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TO INCLUDE KRBG. THIS IS LIKELY TO
TAKE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON TO DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST MON FEB 9 2016... LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS THEY BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES. THIS
WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WEST
SWELL WILL BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET AT 18 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING.
BTL


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EAST TODAY, AND THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SLIDE INLAND AS
WELL. IN A NORMAL SUMMER TIME RIDGING PATTERN, THIS WOULD SIGNAL
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE STRETCH OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER, I THINK
YESTERDAY`S RECORD BREAKING WARMTH WAS A FUNCTION OF THE INCREASED
MIXING DRIVEN BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW WHICH SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AS
GRADIENTS RELAX AND EVEN BECOME ONSHORE. GUIDANCE SHOWS 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALLING BY ABOUT 70 METERS AND 850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 5C LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS MAKES A REPEAT OF
YESTERDAY UNLIKELY. THAT SAID, IT WILL STILL BE SUNNY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN OVER MOST INLAND SECTIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OR PUT ANOTHER
WAY: WE WOULD ONLY EXPECT TO SEE WEATHER THIS WARM IN FEBRUARY
ABOUT ONCE EVERY 5-10 YEARS. I DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP OVER
INLAND AREAS A LITTLE TODAY, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 71 IN
MEDFORD WOULD BE A RECORD IF CORRECT.

WE STILL HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST THIS MORNING, AND THEY`LL
LIKELY GET WARM AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL, OBVIOUSLY, PUT THE BREAKS ON ANY
WARMING. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A NOTICEABLE STRATUS SURGE ABOUT
200 MILES OFF BROOKINGS WHICH IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD THE
COAST. ALTHOUGH IT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET, IT IS A SIGN
OF THE CHANGING PATTERN.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST IS THE UMPQUA BASIN AROUND ROSEBURG WHERE
STRATUS TOOK FOREVER TO BURN OFF YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT, THEY
MISSED OUT ON THE WARMTH, AND STRATUS HAS ALREADY RETURNED AND
WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN AGAIN TODAY, SO WE`RE STILL ONLY
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 50S THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN, OUR FLOW BECOMES WHOLLY
ONSHORE, AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ON INTO THURSDAY AS
WELL. HOWEVER, WE DON`T EXPECT TO SEE RAIN MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
INLAND UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES IN. FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD, EXCEPT POPS WERE INCREASED
OVER THE WATERS AND COAST AND INTRODUCED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. -WRIGHT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 214 PM PST MON FEB 8
2016/

THE CONFIDENCE LESSENS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL TRY
TO REBUILD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT WITH A WARM
FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH. MODEL SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE LARGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE
RIDGE FAIRLY ROBUSTLY, WHILE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM REMAIN FLAT
ENOUGH THAT A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CAN STILL BRING SOME RAIN,
MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
CONTINUITY LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION AND HAVE LEFT
THIS MOSTLY AS IS.

BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS,
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THEN. SPILDE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KPDT 091600
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
759 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE
AN INVERSION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH
MOST BURNING OFF BY AFTERNOON BUT WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE IN THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  30  51  36 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  48  31  50  38 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  50  28  50  34 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  52  29  48  34 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  48  28  50  35 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  39  20  46  32 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  65  28  58  36 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  49  34  48  35 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  60  33  54  30 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  54  32  54  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/99/99




000
FXUS66 KMFR 091155
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
355 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.SHORT TERM...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EAST TODAY, AND THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SLIDE INLAND AS
WELL. IN A NORMAL SUMMER TIME RIDGING PATTERN, THIS WOULD SIGNAL
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE STRETCH OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER, I THINK
YESTERDAY`S RECORD BREAKING WARMTH WAS A FUNCTION OF THE INCREASED
MIXING DRIVEN BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW WHICH SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AS
GRADIENTS RELAX AND EVEN BECOME ONSHORE. GUIDANCE SHOWS 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALLING BY ABOUT 70 METERS AND 850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 5C LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS MAKES A REPEAT OF
YESTERDAY UNLIKELY. THAT SAID, IT WILL STILL BE SUNNY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN OVER MOST INLAND SECTIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OR PUT ANOTHER
WAY: WE WOULD ONLY EXPECT TO SEE WEATHER THIS WARM IN FEBRUARY
ABOUT ONCE EVERY 5-10 YEARS. I DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP OVER
INLAND AREAS A LITTLE TODAY, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 71 IN
MEDFORD WOULD BE A RECORD IF CORRECT.

WE STILL HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST THIS MORNING, AND THEY`LL
LIKELY GET WARM AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL, OBVIOUSLY, PUT THE BREAKS ON ANY
WARMING. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A NOTICEABLE STRATUS SURGE ABOUT
200 MILES OFF BROOKINGS WHICH IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD THE
COAST. ALTHOUGH IT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET, IT IS A SIGN
OF THE CHANGING PATTERN.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST IS THE UMPQUA BASIN AROUND ROSEBURG WHERE
STRATUS TOOK FOREVER TO BURN OFF YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT, THEY
MISSED OUT ON THE WARMTH, AND STRATUS HAS ALREADY RETURNED AND
WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN AGAIN TODAY, SO WE`RE STILL ONLY
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 50S THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN, OUR FLOW BECOMES WHOLLY
ONSHORE, AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ON INTO THURSDAY AS
WELL. HOWEVER, WE DON`T EXPECT TO SEE RAIN MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
INLAND UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES IN. FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD, EXCEPT POPS WERE INCREASED
OVER THE WATERS AND COAST AND INTRODUCED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. -WRIGHT

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 214 PM PST MON FEB 8
2016/

THE CONFIDENCE LESSENS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL TRY
TO REBUILD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT WITH A WARM
FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH. MODEL SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE LARGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE
RIDGE FAIRLY ROBUSTLY, WHILE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM REMAIN FLAT
ENOUGH THAT A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CAN STILL BRING SOME RAIN,
MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
CONTINUITY LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION AND HAVE LEFT
THIS MOSTLY AS IS.

BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS,
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THEN. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/12Z TAF CYCLE... OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. WHILE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD
STILL BE AN ISSUE ON THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY, NONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD AT THE
4 PRIMARY AIRFIELDS. MEANWHILE, LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE AGAIN
PRESENT IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TO
INCLUDE KRBG. THIS IS LIKELY TO TAKE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON TO
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST MON FEB 9 2016... LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS THEY BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES. THIS
WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WEST
SWELL WILL BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET AT 18 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 091155
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
355 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.SHORT TERM...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EAST TODAY, AND THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SLIDE INLAND AS
WELL. IN A NORMAL SUMMER TIME RIDGING PATTERN, THIS WOULD SIGNAL
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE STRETCH OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER, I THINK
YESTERDAY`S RECORD BREAKING WARMTH WAS A FUNCTION OF THE INCREASED
MIXING DRIVEN BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW WHICH SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AS
GRADIENTS RELAX AND EVEN BECOME ONSHORE. GUIDANCE SHOWS 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALLING BY ABOUT 70 METERS AND 850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 5C LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS MAKES A REPEAT OF
YESTERDAY UNLIKELY. THAT SAID, IT WILL STILL BE SUNNY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN OVER MOST INLAND SECTIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OR PUT ANOTHER
WAY: WE WOULD ONLY EXPECT TO SEE WEATHER THIS WARM IN FEBRUARY
ABOUT ONCE EVERY 5-10 YEARS. I DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP OVER
INLAND AREAS A LITTLE TODAY, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 71 IN
MEDFORD WOULD BE A RECORD IF CORRECT.

WE STILL HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST THIS MORNING, AND THEY`LL
LIKELY GET WARM AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL, OBVIOUSLY, PUT THE BREAKS ON ANY
WARMING. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A NOTICEABLE STRATUS SURGE ABOUT
200 MILES OFF BROOKINGS WHICH IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD THE
COAST. ALTHOUGH IT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET, IT IS A SIGN
OF THE CHANGING PATTERN.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST IS THE UMPQUA BASIN AROUND ROSEBURG WHERE
STRATUS TOOK FOREVER TO BURN OFF YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT, THEY
MISSED OUT ON THE WARMTH, AND STRATUS HAS ALREADY RETURNED AND
WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN AGAIN TODAY, SO WE`RE STILL ONLY
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 50S THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN, OUR FLOW BECOMES WHOLLY
ONSHORE, AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ON INTO THURSDAY AS
WELL. HOWEVER, WE DON`T EXPECT TO SEE RAIN MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
INLAND UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES IN. FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD, EXCEPT POPS WERE INCREASED
OVER THE WATERS AND COAST AND INTRODUCED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. -WRIGHT

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 214 PM PST MON FEB 8
2016/

THE CONFIDENCE LESSENS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL TRY
TO REBUILD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT WITH A WARM
FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH. MODEL SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE LARGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE
RIDGE FAIRLY ROBUSTLY, WHILE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM REMAIN FLAT
ENOUGH THAT A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CAN STILL BRING SOME RAIN,
MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
CONTINUITY LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION AND HAVE LEFT
THIS MOSTLY AS IS.

BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS,
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THEN. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/12Z TAF CYCLE... OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. WHILE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD
STILL BE AN ISSUE ON THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY, NONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD AT THE
4 PRIMARY AIRFIELDS. MEANWHILE, LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE AGAIN
PRESENT IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TO
INCLUDE KRBG. THIS IS LIKELY TO TAKE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON TO
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST MON FEB 9 2016... LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS THEY BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES. THIS
WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WEST
SWELL WILL BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET AT 18 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 091155
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
355 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.SHORT TERM...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EAST TODAY, AND THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SLIDE INLAND AS
WELL. IN A NORMAL SUMMER TIME RIDGING PATTERN, THIS WOULD SIGNAL
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE STRETCH OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER, I THINK
YESTERDAY`S RECORD BREAKING WARMTH WAS A FUNCTION OF THE INCREASED
MIXING DRIVEN BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW WHICH SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AS
GRADIENTS RELAX AND EVEN BECOME ONSHORE. GUIDANCE SHOWS 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALLING BY ABOUT 70 METERS AND 850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 5C LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS MAKES A REPEAT OF
YESTERDAY UNLIKELY. THAT SAID, IT WILL STILL BE SUNNY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN OVER MOST INLAND SECTIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OR PUT ANOTHER
WAY: WE WOULD ONLY EXPECT TO SEE WEATHER THIS WARM IN FEBRUARY
ABOUT ONCE EVERY 5-10 YEARS. I DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP OVER
INLAND AREAS A LITTLE TODAY, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 71 IN
MEDFORD WOULD BE A RECORD IF CORRECT.

WE STILL HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST THIS MORNING, AND THEY`LL
LIKELY GET WARM AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL, OBVIOUSLY, PUT THE BREAKS ON ANY
WARMING. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A NOTICEABLE STRATUS SURGE ABOUT
200 MILES OFF BROOKINGS WHICH IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD THE
COAST. ALTHOUGH IT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET, IT IS A SIGN
OF THE CHANGING PATTERN.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST IS THE UMPQUA BASIN AROUND ROSEBURG WHERE
STRATUS TOOK FOREVER TO BURN OFF YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT, THEY
MISSED OUT ON THE WARMTH, AND STRATUS HAS ALREADY RETURNED AND
WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN AGAIN TODAY, SO WE`RE STILL ONLY
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 50S THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN, OUR FLOW BECOMES WHOLLY
ONSHORE, AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ON INTO THURSDAY AS
WELL. HOWEVER, WE DON`T EXPECT TO SEE RAIN MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
INLAND UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES IN. FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD, EXCEPT POPS WERE INCREASED
OVER THE WATERS AND COAST AND INTRODUCED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. -WRIGHT

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 214 PM PST MON FEB 8
2016/

THE CONFIDENCE LESSENS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL TRY
TO REBUILD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT WITH A WARM
FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH. MODEL SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE LARGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE
RIDGE FAIRLY ROBUSTLY, WHILE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM REMAIN FLAT
ENOUGH THAT A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CAN STILL BRING SOME RAIN,
MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
CONTINUITY LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION AND HAVE LEFT
THIS MOSTLY AS IS.

BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS,
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THEN. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/12Z TAF CYCLE... OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. WHILE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD
STILL BE AN ISSUE ON THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY, NONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD AT THE
4 PRIMARY AIRFIELDS. MEANWHILE, LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE AGAIN
PRESENT IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TO
INCLUDE KRBG. THIS IS LIKELY TO TAKE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON TO
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST MON FEB 9 2016... LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS THEY BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES. THIS
WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WEST
SWELL WILL BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET AT 18 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 091110
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
306 AM PST TUE FEB  9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES OVER REGION MAINTAINING DRY AND MILD AIR MASS.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FOR INLAND
AREAS AWAY FROM THE COLUMBIA GORGE. HIGH PRES WEAKENS ON WED...WITH A
WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO REGION THU. STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
FRI...FOLLOWED BY COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN STORY IS THE STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE ALOFT THAT SITS OVER THE
WESTERN USA. THIS RIDGE IS ACTING LIKE A ROCK IN A STREAM...FORCING
THE APPROACHING FRONTS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT AROUND THE HIGH INTO SW
CANADA.

AT SURFACE...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMBIA
GORGE. AT 3 AM...TRANS-CASCADES PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GORGE WAS
HOLDING STEADY AROUND 10 MB...POINTING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP
BREEZY EAST WINDS IN THE WESTERN GORGE THIS AM...WITH GUSTS 45 TO 60
MPH FOR THE MOST PART...AND 35 TO 45 MPH OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER AREAS. BUT WINDS DROP OFF QUICKLY AS MOVE AWAY
FROM THAT AREA. SO MUCH THAT FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED
OVER SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND OVER THE COWLITZ VALLEY. WEB CAMS
IN EUGENE SHOW VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF FOG...GENERALLY 100 TO 300 FT
DEEP. WITH  VISIBILITIES IN THOSE AREAS RUNNING 1/8 TO 1/4 MILE...
WILL PUT UP DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FOR THOSE TWO AREAS UNTIL 11 AM.
FOG WILL FORM ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS AM BUT
ANY DENSE FOG WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED...AND MAINLY BETWEEN SALEM
AND ALBANY.

OTHERWISE...TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE MUCH LIKE THAT OF MONDAY...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MILD CONDITIONS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TODAY...AND MUCH MORE SO TONIGHT. SO...COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
TAD COOLER TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ONLY.

ONCE SUN GOES DOWN THIS EVENING...AIR MASS WILL COOL RAPIDLY AGAIN.
WILL SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...BUT THEY WILL SPREAD
OUT FARTHER ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS AS WINDS WILL BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVER MOST AREAS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR ON WED.

FIRST OF SERIES OF FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER WED/WED NIGHT... BUT IT
SEEMS TO BE THE SACRIFICIAL FRONT AS NOT MUCH IN WAY OF MOISTURE
REACHING THE REGION. WILL KEEP 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS...MAINLY N OF NEWPORT LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATER THU...BUT AGAIN MOST OF ITS MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED TO THE N OF THE REGION. STILL...WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THU.                  ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING WE WILL STAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN HAVE A FRONT COME THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SHOWERY WEATHER
INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS THE SLOWEST AND THE ECMWF THE FASTEST. THE
MODELS SUGGEST WE GET BACK INTO WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING THAT
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD CLIMO POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT THE COAST PLUS KTTD AND KPDX AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN RATHER GUSTY NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE GORGE...INCLUDING KTTD. KEUG QUICKLY DEVELOPED A
THIN LOW DECK AND FOG. KSLE AND KHIO LIKELY ARE NOT FAR OFF GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS ALTHOUGH
LAMP GUIDANCE IS AN OUTLIER AMONG MOS INFO. LAMP DOES NOT BRING
REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THOSE TWO SITES. WILL LEAN ON
PERSISTENCE AND PROBABLY KEEP SOME FOG MENTION IN PLACE FOR KSLE
AND KHIO. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE THE FOG DISSIPATE BY 21Z WITH KEUG
HOLDING ON THE LATEST. CONTINUED PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BRING
FOG BACK TO KEUG AROUND 08Z TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH
EASTERLY WINDS. GUSTY HEADWINDS FOR THE DEPARTURES THROUGH 20Z WITH
SOME SPEED SHEAR UNDER SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST
2000 FEET AGL. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AND
SWING WINDS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
FEEL THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS BUT CONFIDENCE
IN A WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND EVENT IS LOW. HAVE
BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN FRONTAL REMNANTS
WILL SWING NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WIND GUSTS LIKELY. BUT EVEN THEN...NOTABLE DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MODELS AS TO THE STRENGTH WITH ONE KEEPING THIS AS A NON-EVENT.
WILL LET THINGS SHAKE OUT A BIT BEFORE ISSUING PRODUCTS YET.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING POSSIBLE GALES SATURDAY
EVENING UNDER A PASSING FRONT BUT BEGIN TO STRAY AGAIN
THEREAFTER.

SEAS HAVE REMAINED A BIT MORE STUBBORN AND ARE HOVERING 10-11 FT
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. HAVE TIMED IN THE DECAY FROM BUOY
5 AND FEEL THEY WILL DROP SEE THE EXPECTED DROP OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.

SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO 8 TO 10 FT
THIS EVENING AND SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 7 FT
TUESDAY. WILL SEE SEAS BUILD BACK UP AROUND 10 FT WITH THE FRONTAL
REMNANTS WEDNESDAY. WHILE A LONGER PERIOD MIXED SWELL ARRIVES
THURSDAY SOLIDLY PUSHING SEAS INTO THE LOWER TEENS. ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE
 LOWER I-5 CORRIDOR NEAR UNTIL 11 AM TODAY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER I-5 CORRIDOR AND COWLITZ
 VALLEY UNTIL 11 AM TODAY.

PZ...NONE.
&&


&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 091110
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
306 AM PST TUE FEB  9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES OVER REGION MAINTAINING DRY AND MILD AIR MASS.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG FOR INLAND
AREAS AWAY FROM THE COLUMBIA GORGE. HIGH PRES WEAKENS ON WED...WITH A
WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO REGION THU. STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
FRI...FOLLOWED BY COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN STORY IS THE STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE ALOFT THAT SITS OVER THE
WESTERN USA. THIS RIDGE IS ACTING LIKE A ROCK IN A STREAM...FORCING
THE APPROACHING FRONTS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT AROUND THE HIGH INTO SW
CANADA.

AT SURFACE...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMBIA
GORGE. AT 3 AM...TRANS-CASCADES PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GORGE WAS
HOLDING STEADY AROUND 10 MB...POINTING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP
BREEZY EAST WINDS IN THE WESTERN GORGE THIS AM...WITH GUSTS 45 TO 60
MPH FOR THE MOST PART...AND 35 TO 45 MPH OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER AREAS. BUT WINDS DROP OFF QUICKLY AS MOVE AWAY
FROM THAT AREA. SO MUCH THAT FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED
OVER SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND OVER THE COWLITZ VALLEY. WEB CAMS
IN EUGENE SHOW VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF FOG...GENERALLY 100 TO 300 FT
DEEP. WITH  VISIBILITIES IN THOSE AREAS RUNNING 1/8 TO 1/4 MILE...
WILL PUT UP DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FOR THOSE TWO AREAS UNTIL 11 AM.
FOG WILL FORM ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS AM BUT
ANY DENSE FOG WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED...AND MAINLY BETWEEN SALEM
AND ALBANY.

OTHERWISE...TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE MUCH LIKE THAT OF MONDAY...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MILD CONDITIONS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TODAY...AND MUCH MORE SO TONIGHT. SO...COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
TAD COOLER TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ONLY.

ONCE SUN GOES DOWN THIS EVENING...AIR MASS WILL COOL RAPIDLY AGAIN.
WILL SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...BUT THEY WILL SPREAD
OUT FARTHER ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS AS WINDS WILL BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVER MOST AREAS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR ON WED.

FIRST OF SERIES OF FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER WED/WED NIGHT... BUT IT
SEEMS TO BE THE SACRIFICIAL FRONT AS NOT MUCH IN WAY OF MOISTURE
REACHING THE REGION. WILL KEEP 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS...MAINLY N OF NEWPORT LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATER THU...BUT AGAIN MOST OF ITS MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED TO THE N OF THE REGION. STILL...WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THU.                  ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING WE WILL STAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN HAVE A FRONT COME THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SHOWERY WEATHER
INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS THE SLOWEST AND THE ECMWF THE FASTEST. THE
MODELS SUGGEST WE GET BACK INTO WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING THAT
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD CLIMO POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT THE COAST PLUS KTTD AND KPDX AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN RATHER GUSTY NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE GORGE...INCLUDING KTTD. KEUG QUICKLY DEVELOPED A
THIN LOW DECK AND FOG. KSLE AND KHIO LIKELY ARE NOT FAR OFF GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS ALTHOUGH
LAMP GUIDANCE IS AN OUTLIER AMONG MOS INFO. LAMP DOES NOT BRING
REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THOSE TWO SITES. WILL LEAN ON
PERSISTENCE AND PROBABLY KEEP SOME FOG MENTION IN PLACE FOR KSLE
AND KHIO. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE THE FOG DISSIPATE BY 21Z WITH KEUG
HOLDING ON THE LATEST. CONTINUED PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BRING
FOG BACK TO KEUG AROUND 08Z TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH
EASTERLY WINDS. GUSTY HEADWINDS FOR THE DEPARTURES THROUGH 20Z WITH
SOME SPEED SHEAR UNDER SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST
2000 FEET AGL. /JBONK
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AND
SWING WINDS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
FEEL THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS BUT CONFIDENCE
IN A WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND EVENT IS LOW. HAVE
BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN FRONTAL REMNANTS
WILL SWING NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WIND GUSTS LIKELY. BUT EVEN THEN...NOTABLE DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MODELS AS TO THE STRENGTH WITH ONE KEEPING THIS AS A NON-EVENT.
WILL LET THINGS SHAKE OUT A BIT BEFORE ISSUING PRODUCTS YET.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING POSSIBLE GALES SATURDAY
EVENING UNDER A PASSING FRONT BUT BEGIN TO STRAY AGAIN
THEREAFTER.

SEAS HAVE REMAINED A BIT MORE STUBBORN AND ARE HOVERING 10-11 FT
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. HAVE TIMED IN THE DECAY FROM BUOY
5 AND FEEL THEY WILL DROP SEE THE EXPECTED DROP OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.

SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO 8 TO 10 FT
THIS EVENING AND SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 7 FT
TUESDAY. WILL SEE SEAS BUILD BACK UP AROUND 10 FT WITH THE FRONTAL
REMNANTS WEDNESDAY. WHILE A LONGER PERIOD MIXED SWELL ARRIVES
THURSDAY SOLIDLY PUSHING SEAS INTO THE LOWER TEENS. ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE
 LOWER I-5 CORRIDOR NEAR UNTIL 11 AM TODAY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER I-5 CORRIDOR AND COWLITZ
 VALLEY UNTIL 11 AM TODAY.

PZ...NONE.
&&


&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 091059
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
259 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EAST TODAY, AND THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SLIDE INLAND AS
WELL. IN A NORMAL SUMMER TIME RIDGING PATTERN, THIS WOULD SIGNAL
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE STRETCH OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER, I THINK
YESTERDAY`S RECORD BREAKING WARMTH WAS A FUNCTION OF THE INCREASED
MIXING DRIVEN BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW WHICH SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AS
GRADIENTS RELAX AND EVEN BECOME ONSHORE. GUIDANCE SHOWS 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALLING BY ABOUT 70 METERS AND 850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 5C LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS MAKES A REPEAT OF
YESTERDAY UNLIKELY. THAT SAID, IT WILL STILL BE SUNNY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN OVER MOST INLAND SECTIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OR PUT ANOTHER
WAY: WE WOULD ONLY EXPECT TO SEE WEATHER THIS WARM IN FEBRUARY
ABOUT ONCE EVERY 5-10 YEARS. I DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP OVER
INLAND AREAS A LITTLE TODAY, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 71 IN
MEDFORD WOULD BE A RECORD IF CORRECT.

WE STILL HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST THIS MORNING, AND THEY`LL
LIKELY GET WARM AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL, OBVIOUSLY, PUT THE BREAKS ON ANY
WARMING. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A NOTICEABLE STRATUS SURGE ABOUT
200 MILES OFF BROOKINGS WHICH IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD THE
COAST. ALTHOUGH IT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET, IT IS A SIGN
OF THE CHANGING PATTERN.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST IS THE UMPQUA BASIN AROUND ROSEBURG WHERE
STRATUS TOOK FOREVER TO BURN OFF YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT, THEY
MISSED OUT ON THE WARMTH, AND STRATUS HAS ALREADY RETURNED AND
WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN AGAIN TODAY, SO WE`RE STILL ONLY
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 50S THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN, OUR FLOW BECOMES WHOLLY
ONSHORE, AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ON INTO THURSDAY AS
WELL. HOWEVER, WE DON`T EXPECT TO SEE RAIN MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
INLAND UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES IN. FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD, EXCEPT POPS WERE INCREASED
OVER THE WATERS AND COAST AND INTRODUCED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. -WRIGHT

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 214 PM PST MON FEB 8
2016/

THE CONFIDENCE LESSENS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL TRY
TO REBUILD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT WITH A WARM
FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH. MODEL SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE LARGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE
RIDGE FAIRLY ROBUSTLY, WHILE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM REMAIN FLAT
ENOUGH THAT A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CAN STILL BRING SOME RAIN,
MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
CONTINUITY LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION AND HAVE LEFT
THIS MOSTLY AS IS.

BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS,
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THEN. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/06Z TAF CYCLE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
BE AN AVIATION HAZARD AT ALL 4 TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS SHORT TERM
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS 1500-2000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND
PERHAPS THE SCOTT, ILLINOIS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN VFR. -BPN/FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016...A THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS BEYOND LONGITUDE 130W. A FRONT
MAY MOVE NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THIS FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS BUT THERE MAY BE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS. A STRONGER FRONT WILL
MOVE IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS.

ANOTHER STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 18 SECONDS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 091059
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
259 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EAST TODAY, AND THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SLIDE INLAND AS
WELL. IN A NORMAL SUMMER TIME RIDGING PATTERN, THIS WOULD SIGNAL
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE STRETCH OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER, I THINK
YESTERDAY`S RECORD BREAKING WARMTH WAS A FUNCTION OF THE INCREASED
MIXING DRIVEN BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW WHICH SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AS
GRADIENTS RELAX AND EVEN BECOME ONSHORE. GUIDANCE SHOWS 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALLING BY ABOUT 70 METERS AND 850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 5C LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS MAKES A REPEAT OF
YESTERDAY UNLIKELY. THAT SAID, IT WILL STILL BE SUNNY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN OVER MOST INLAND SECTIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OR PUT ANOTHER
WAY: WE WOULD ONLY EXPECT TO SEE WEATHER THIS WARM IN FEBRUARY
ABOUT ONCE EVERY 5-10 YEARS. I DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP OVER
INLAND AREAS A LITTLE TODAY, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 71 IN
MEDFORD WOULD BE A RECORD IF CORRECT.

WE STILL HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST THIS MORNING, AND THEY`LL
LIKELY GET WARM AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL, OBVIOUSLY, PUT THE BREAKS ON ANY
WARMING. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A NOTICEABLE STRATUS SURGE ABOUT
200 MILES OFF BROOKINGS WHICH IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD THE
COAST. ALTHOUGH IT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET, IT IS A SIGN
OF THE CHANGING PATTERN.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST IS THE UMPQUA BASIN AROUND ROSEBURG WHERE
STRATUS TOOK FOREVER TO BURN OFF YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT, THEY
MISSED OUT ON THE WARMTH, AND STRATUS HAS ALREADY RETURNED AND
WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN AGAIN TODAY, SO WE`RE STILL ONLY
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 50S THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN, OUR FLOW BECOMES WHOLLY
ONSHORE, AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ON INTO THURSDAY AS
WELL. HOWEVER, WE DON`T EXPECT TO SEE RAIN MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
INLAND UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES IN. FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD, EXCEPT POPS WERE INCREASED
OVER THE WATERS AND COAST AND INTRODUCED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. -WRIGHT

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 214 PM PST MON FEB 8
2016/

THE CONFIDENCE LESSENS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL TRY
TO REBUILD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT WITH A WARM
FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH. MODEL SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE LARGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE
RIDGE FAIRLY ROBUSTLY, WHILE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM REMAIN FLAT
ENOUGH THAT A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CAN STILL BRING SOME RAIN,
MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
CONTINUITY LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION AND HAVE LEFT
THIS MOSTLY AS IS.

BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS,
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THEN. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/06Z TAF CYCLE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
BE AN AVIATION HAZARD AT ALL 4 TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS SHORT TERM
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS 1500-2000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND
PERHAPS THE SCOTT, ILLINOIS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN VFR. -BPN/FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016...A THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS BEYOND LONGITUDE 130W. A FRONT
MAY MOVE NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THIS FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS BUT THERE MAY BE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS. A STRONGER FRONT WILL
MOVE IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS.

ANOTHER STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 18 SECONDS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 091059
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
259 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EAST TODAY, AND THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SLIDE INLAND AS
WELL. IN A NORMAL SUMMER TIME RIDGING PATTERN, THIS WOULD SIGNAL
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE STRETCH OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER, I THINK
YESTERDAY`S RECORD BREAKING WARMTH WAS A FUNCTION OF THE INCREASED
MIXING DRIVEN BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW WHICH SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AS
GRADIENTS RELAX AND EVEN BECOME ONSHORE. GUIDANCE SHOWS 500 MB
HEIGHTS FALLING BY ABOUT 70 METERS AND 850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 5C LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. ALL OF THIS MAKES A REPEAT OF
YESTERDAY UNLIKELY. THAT SAID, IT WILL STILL BE SUNNY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN OVER MOST INLAND SECTIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OR PUT ANOTHER
WAY: WE WOULD ONLY EXPECT TO SEE WEATHER THIS WARM IN FEBRUARY
ABOUT ONCE EVERY 5-10 YEARS. I DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP OVER
INLAND AREAS A LITTLE TODAY, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 71 IN
MEDFORD WOULD BE A RECORD IF CORRECT.

WE STILL HAVE OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST THIS MORNING, AND THEY`LL
LIKELY GET WARM AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, ALL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL, OBVIOUSLY, PUT THE BREAKS ON ANY
WARMING. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A NOTICEABLE STRATUS SURGE ABOUT
200 MILES OFF BROOKINGS WHICH IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD THE
COAST. ALTHOUGH IT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET, IT IS A SIGN
OF THE CHANGING PATTERN.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST IS THE UMPQUA BASIN AROUND ROSEBURG WHERE
STRATUS TOOK FOREVER TO BURN OFF YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT, THEY
MISSED OUT ON THE WARMTH, AND STRATUS HAS ALREADY RETURNED AND
WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN AGAIN TODAY, SO WE`RE STILL ONLY
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 50S THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN, OUR FLOW BECOMES WHOLLY
ONSHORE, AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND ON INTO THURSDAY AS
WELL. HOWEVER, WE DON`T EXPECT TO SEE RAIN MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
INLAND UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES IN. FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD, EXCEPT POPS WERE INCREASED
OVER THE WATERS AND COAST AND INTRODUCED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. -WRIGHT

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 214 PM PST MON FEB 8
2016/

THE CONFIDENCE LESSENS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL TRY
TO REBUILD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT WITH A WARM
FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH. MODEL SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE LARGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE
RIDGE FAIRLY ROBUSTLY, WHILE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM REMAIN FLAT
ENOUGH THAT A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CAN STILL BRING SOME RAIN,
MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
CONTINUITY LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION AND HAVE LEFT
THIS MOSTLY AS IS.

BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS,
SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THEN. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/06Z TAF CYCLE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
BE AN AVIATION HAZARD AT ALL 4 TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS SHORT TERM
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS 1500-2000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND
PERHAPS THE SCOTT, ILLINOIS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN VFR. -BPN/FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016...A THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS BEYOND LONGITUDE 130W. A FRONT
MAY MOVE NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THIS FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS BUT THERE MAY BE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS. A STRONGER FRONT WILL
MOVE IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS.

ANOTHER STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 18 SECONDS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KPDT 091049
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
249 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TODAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING FOG IS VERY LIMITED AT THIS POINT.
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY EXPAND SOME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING MOST LOCATIONS TO HAVE
SUNNY SKIES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
50S TO LOWER 60S. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL KEEP THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS A LITTLE COOLER WITH UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S FOR THE MOST PART. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN THE GRANDE
RONDE VALLEY OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY. THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LIMITED TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. MAIN
IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. SOME LIGHT RAIN
LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 94

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
THURSDAY EVENING...AND GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  BY FRIDAY EVENING ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER A
CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
WILL STILL BE A FAIRLY MILD SYSTEM...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
DROP TO ABOUT 6000 FT MSL BY SATURDAY.

A FAST MOVING OPEN TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...LOWERING THE SNOW LEVELS EVEN FURTHER.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 3500 FT MSL AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO
REBUILD...BUT FOR NOW MODELS KEEP THE AREA UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO ABOUT 7000 FT MSL.

A 30-40KT JET AT 850 MB WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY
ONWARD.  WITH PROPER MIXING THESE WINDS COULD CREATE SOME BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S MOUNTAINS. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER VISIBILITY COULD FALL TO 5-6SM
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT COLUMBIA BASIN TAF SITES THROUGH
18Z. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THESE SITES WILL BE AMENDED IF NEEDED.
OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS AND SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN
10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  31  51  36 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  50  31  50  38 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  51  30  50  34 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  52  30  48  34 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  51  30  50  35 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  43  26  46  32 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  66  32  58  36 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  52  33  48  35 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  64  32  54  30 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  55  33  54  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/89/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 091049
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
249 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TODAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING FOG IS VERY LIMITED AT THIS POINT.
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY EXPAND SOME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING MOST LOCATIONS TO HAVE
SUNNY SKIES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
50S TO LOWER 60S. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL KEEP THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS A LITTLE COOLER WITH UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S FOR THE MOST PART. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN THE GRANDE
RONDE VALLEY OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY. THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LIMITED TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. MAIN
IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. SOME LIGHT RAIN
LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 94

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
THURSDAY EVENING...AND GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  BY FRIDAY EVENING ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER A
CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
WILL STILL BE A FAIRLY MILD SYSTEM...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
DROP TO ABOUT 6000 FT MSL BY SATURDAY.

A FAST MOVING OPEN TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...LOWERING THE SNOW LEVELS EVEN FURTHER.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 3500 FT MSL AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO
REBUILD...BUT FOR NOW MODELS KEEP THE AREA UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO ABOUT 7000 FT MSL.

A 30-40KT JET AT 850 MB WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY
ONWARD.  WITH PROPER MIXING THESE WINDS COULD CREATE SOME BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S MOUNTAINS. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER VISIBILITY COULD FALL TO 5-6SM
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT COLUMBIA BASIN TAF SITES THROUGH
18Z. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THESE SITES WILL BE AMENDED IF NEEDED.
OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS AND SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN
10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  31  51  36 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  50  31  50  38 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  51  30  50  34 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  52  30  48  34 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  51  30  50  35 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  43  26  46  32 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  66  32  58  36 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  52  33  48  35 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  64  32  54  30 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  55  33  54  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/89/89



000
FXUS66 KPDT 091049
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
249 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TODAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING FOG IS VERY LIMITED AT THIS POINT.
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY EXPAND SOME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING MOST LOCATIONS TO HAVE
SUNNY SKIES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
50S TO LOWER 60S. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL KEEP THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS A LITTLE COOLER WITH UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S FOR THE MOST PART. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN THE GRANDE
RONDE VALLEY OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY. THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LIMITED TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. MAIN
IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. SOME LIGHT RAIN
LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 94

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND
THURSDAY EVENING...AND GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  BY FRIDAY EVENING ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER A
CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
WILL STILL BE A FAIRLY MILD SYSTEM...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
DROP TO ABOUT 6000 FT MSL BY SATURDAY.

A FAST MOVING OPEN TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...LOWERING THE SNOW LEVELS EVEN FURTHER.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 3500 FT MSL AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO
REBUILD...BUT FOR NOW MODELS KEEP THE AREA UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO ABOUT 7000 FT MSL.

A 30-40KT JET AT 850 MB WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY
ONWARD.  WITH PROPER MIXING THESE WINDS COULD CREATE SOME BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S MOUNTAINS. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER VISIBILITY COULD FALL TO 5-6SM
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT COLUMBIA BASIN TAF SITES THROUGH
18Z. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THESE SITES WILL BE AMENDED IF NEEDED.
OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS AND SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN
10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  31  51  36 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  50  31  50  38 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  51  30  50  34 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  52  30  48  34 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  51  30  50  35 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  43  26  46  32 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  66  32  58  36 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  52  33  48  35 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  64  32  54  30 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  55  33  54  40 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/89/89




000
FXUS65 KBOI 091001
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
301 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOG AND STRATUS HAVE BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE SINCE
YESTERDAY AS LOW-LEVEL INVERSION INTENSIFIES.  FOG/STRATUS HAVE
EXPANDED FROM THE MAGIC VALLEY DOWN THE SNAKE RIVER TOWARD
MOUNTAIN HOME DURING THE NIGHT.  A SECOND LARGER AREA WAS IN THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND GEM COUNTY.  THE FOG AND STRATUS
SHOULD REACH MAXIMUM EXTENT THIS MORNING THEN DECREASE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AND MOST OF EASTERN OREGON...SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY...AND ABOUT THE SAME AS
YESTERDAY ELSEWHERE.  WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ABOVE THE VALLEYS
IN OREGON WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S.
LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THE 500 MB RIDGE IS THE STRONGEST ON RECORD BY HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE
FOR THE MONTHS OF FEBRUARY MARCH AND APRIL AS FAR BACK AS 1948.
LOW SUN ANGLE...SNOW COVER...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE KEEPING THE SURFACE
RELATIVELY COLD AND MAINTAINING THE INVERSION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN FRIDAY WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
WEST. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BUT VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO AN
INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN
THE VALLEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRATUS COVERAGE WHICH FAVORS THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS...WITH
CONDITIONS RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR...IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. KONO...KJER...AND KTWF MAY STAY IN THE
STRATUS ALL DAY BUT KBOI AND KMUO WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE BUT MAINLY EAST 10 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20 KTS AFTER
18Z THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...00Z/TUE SOUNDING AT BOISE REVEALED A STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION BETWEEN 5100 AND 8500 FEET MSL.  INVERSION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE
ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION EWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. COOL/MOIST AIR IN THE VALLEYS WILL HELP FORM
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BELOW 5000 FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS
AIR STAGNATION...LC




000
FXUS66 KPDT 090546 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
946 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS LEADING TO A
QUIET WEATHER NIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES ARE GENERALLY
CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM
THOUGH MANY LOCATIONS HAVE HAD RAPID RADIATIVE COOLING SINCE
SUNDOWN. A FEW PLACES WERE APPROACHING FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE OR
HAD LOW DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD ALLOW FURTHER COOLING
SO HAVE MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS. WITH THE RADIATIVE
COOLING, PATCHY FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
CURRENT FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT. HOWEVER, HAVE NOTICED
THAT MADRAS AIRPORT HAS 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY IN ITS LATEST
OBSERVATION AND HAD SOME FOG THIS MORNING SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
IN NORTH CENTRAL OREGON DOWN TO MADRAS. FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY
OUT. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER VISIBILITY COULD FALL TO 5-6SM
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT COLUMBIA BASIN TAF SITES FROM 12Z
TO 18Z TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED 6SM BR AT MOST COLUMBIA BASIN
TAFS SITES TO COVER THAT POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST SOME
HIGH CIRRUS AND SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AND CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND
FLATTEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MIDWEEK.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHICH WILL TRAP SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
BENEATH IT. DAYS ARE GETTING LONGER WITH RESULTING SOLAR RADIATION
HEATING THE GROUND INCREASING SO EXPECT SOME OF THE FOG TO BURN OFF
DURING THE DAYS ONLY TO REFORM AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD LEVELS ABOVE THE
INVERSION.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WA/OR CASCADES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE SHOULD FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  31  51  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  31  49  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  31  47  31  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  29  50  33  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  31  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  24  42  28  44 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  35  65  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  32  52  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  33  61  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  33  53  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/97/83




000
FXUS66 KPDT 090546 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
946 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS LEADING TO A
QUIET WEATHER NIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES ARE GENERALLY
CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM
THOUGH MANY LOCATIONS HAVE HAD RAPID RADIATIVE COOLING SINCE
SUNDOWN. A FEW PLACES WERE APPROACHING FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE OR
HAD LOW DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD ALLOW FURTHER COOLING
SO HAVE MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS. WITH THE RADIATIVE
COOLING, PATCHY FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
CURRENT FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT. HOWEVER, HAVE NOTICED
THAT MADRAS AIRPORT HAS 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY IN ITS LATEST
OBSERVATION AND HAD SOME FOG THIS MORNING SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
IN NORTH CENTRAL OREGON DOWN TO MADRAS. FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY
OUT. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER VISIBILITY COULD FALL TO 5-6SM
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT COLUMBIA BASIN TAF SITES FROM 12Z
TO 18Z TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED 6SM BR AT MOST COLUMBIA BASIN
TAFS SITES TO COVER THAT POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST SOME
HIGH CIRRUS AND SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AND CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND
FLATTEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MIDWEEK.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHICH WILL TRAP SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
BENEATH IT. DAYS ARE GETTING LONGER WITH RESULTING SOLAR RADIATION
HEATING THE GROUND INCREASING SO EXPECT SOME OF THE FOG TO BURN OFF
DURING THE DAYS ONLY TO REFORM AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD LEVELS ABOVE THE
INVERSION.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WA/OR CASCADES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE SHOULD FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  31  51  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  31  49  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  31  47  31  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  29  50  33  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  31  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  24  42  28  44 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  35  65  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  32  52  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  33  61  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  33  53  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/97/83



000
FXUS66 KPDT 090546 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
946 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS LEADING TO A
QUIET WEATHER NIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES ARE GENERALLY
CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM
THOUGH MANY LOCATIONS HAVE HAD RAPID RADIATIVE COOLING SINCE
SUNDOWN. A FEW PLACES WERE APPROACHING FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE OR
HAD LOW DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD ALLOW FURTHER COOLING
SO HAVE MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS. WITH THE RADIATIVE
COOLING, PATCHY FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
CURRENT FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT. HOWEVER, HAVE NOTICED
THAT MADRAS AIRPORT HAS 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY IN ITS LATEST
OBSERVATION AND HAD SOME FOG THIS MORNING SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
IN NORTH CENTRAL OREGON DOWN TO MADRAS. FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY
OUT. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER VISIBILITY COULD FALL TO 5-6SM
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT COLUMBIA BASIN TAF SITES FROM 12Z
TO 18Z TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED 6SM BR AT MOST COLUMBIA BASIN
TAFS SITES TO COVER THAT POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST SOME
HIGH CIRRUS AND SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AND CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND
FLATTEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MIDWEEK.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHICH WILL TRAP SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
BENEATH IT. DAYS ARE GETTING LONGER WITH RESULTING SOLAR RADIATION
HEATING THE GROUND INCREASING SO EXPECT SOME OF THE FOG TO BURN OFF
DURING THE DAYS ONLY TO REFORM AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD LEVELS ABOVE THE
INVERSION.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WA/OR CASCADES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE SHOULD FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  31  51  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  31  49  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  31  47  31  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  29  50  33  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  31  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  24  42  28  44 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  35  65  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  32  52  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  33  61  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  33  53  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/97/83



000
FXUS66 KPDT 090546 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
946 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS LEADING TO A
QUIET WEATHER NIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES ARE GENERALLY
CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM
THOUGH MANY LOCATIONS HAVE HAD RAPID RADIATIVE COOLING SINCE
SUNDOWN. A FEW PLACES WERE APPROACHING FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE OR
HAD LOW DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD ALLOW FURTHER COOLING
SO HAVE MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS. WITH THE RADIATIVE
COOLING, PATCHY FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
CURRENT FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT. HOWEVER, HAVE NOTICED
THAT MADRAS AIRPORT HAS 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY IN ITS LATEST
OBSERVATION AND HAD SOME FOG THIS MORNING SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
IN NORTH CENTRAL OREGON DOWN TO MADRAS. FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY
OUT. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER VISIBILITY COULD FALL TO 5-6SM
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT COLUMBIA BASIN TAF SITES FROM 12Z
TO 18Z TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED 6SM BR AT MOST COLUMBIA BASIN
TAFS SITES TO COVER THAT POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST SOME
HIGH CIRRUS AND SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AND CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND
FLATTEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MIDWEEK.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHICH WILL TRAP SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
BENEATH IT. DAYS ARE GETTING LONGER WITH RESULTING SOLAR RADIATION
HEATING THE GROUND INCREASING SO EXPECT SOME OF THE FOG TO BURN OFF
DURING THE DAYS ONLY TO REFORM AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD LEVELS ABOVE THE
INVERSION.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WA/OR CASCADES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE SHOULD FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  31  51  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  31  49  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  31  47  31  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  29  50  33  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  31  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  24  42  28  44 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  35  65  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  32  52  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  33  61  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  33  53  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/97/83



000
FXUS66 KPDT 090546 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
946 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS LEADING TO A
QUIET WEATHER NIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES ARE GENERALLY
CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM
THOUGH MANY LOCATIONS HAVE HAD RAPID RADIATIVE COOLING SINCE
SUNDOWN. A FEW PLACES WERE APPROACHING FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE OR
HAD LOW DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD ALLOW FURTHER COOLING
SO HAVE MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS. WITH THE RADIATIVE
COOLING, PATCHY FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
CURRENT FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT. HOWEVER, HAVE NOTICED
THAT MADRAS AIRPORT HAS 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY IN ITS LATEST
OBSERVATION AND HAD SOME FOG THIS MORNING SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
IN NORTH CENTRAL OREGON DOWN TO MADRAS. FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY
OUT. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER VISIBILITY COULD FALL TO 5-6SM
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT COLUMBIA BASIN TAF SITES FROM 12Z
TO 18Z TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED 6SM BR AT MOST COLUMBIA BASIN
TAFS SITES TO COVER THAT POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST SOME
HIGH CIRRUS AND SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AND CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND
FLATTEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MIDWEEK.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHICH WILL TRAP SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
BENEATH IT. DAYS ARE GETTING LONGER WITH RESULTING SOLAR RADIATION
HEATING THE GROUND INCREASING SO EXPECT SOME OF THE FOG TO BURN OFF
DURING THE DAYS ONLY TO REFORM AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD LEVELS ABOVE THE
INVERSION.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WA/OR CASCADES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE SHOULD FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  31  51  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  31  49  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  31  47  31  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  29  50  33  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  31  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  24  42  28  44 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  35  65  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  32  52  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  33  61  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  33  53  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/97/83



000
FXUS66 KPQR 090507
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
906 PM PST MON FEB  8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BRISK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE. WHILE AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS RETURN TO MOST OF THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FIRST WEAK
SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST WEDNESDAY. OTHER SYSTEMS WILL TRY TO MAKE
INROADS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GUSTY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
WESTERN GORGE THIS EVENING AS THE KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT NOW UP TO -9.1
MB.  WINDIEST SPOT IS AT CROWN POINT WITH GUST TO 88 MPH AROUND 6 PM
BUT MOST GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 60 TO 70 MPH RANGE. OTHER AREAS IN
THE WESTERN GORGE AND EAST MULTNOMAH/CLARK COUNTY WERE IN THE 20 TO
40 MPH AT 8 PM.  PEAK WINDS WILL BE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AND
EASE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.


NOT MUCH CHANGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER MILD OR WARM DAY
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. WIND SHELTERED AREAS OR AREAS THAT
DECOUPLE FROM ANY WIND WILL GET COOL TONIGHT...INTO THE
30S...DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS IN THE DRIER AIR MASS OVER
THE AREA. LOOK FOR MORE AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INLAND AWAY FROM
THE GORGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE COVERAGE THAN WHAT WE SAW THIS
MORNING...AND PROBABLY NO LATER CLEARING EITHER.  COASTAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S COMPARED TO MID
60S TO MID 70S TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TUESDAY DUE TO
THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...AND THE EAST WINDS SHOULD
START TO EASE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL TURN THE WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND WE SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP THERE. THE WEAK
SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT DOES NOT REALLY MAKE MUCH
HEADWAY INLAND AS IT LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS
ON THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. WITH THE WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INLAND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT HAD
DEVELOPED WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER IDAHO AND A LOW
OUT AROUND 140W TO 150W...BUT THE MAIN CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS AS MUCH OF THE ENERGY HEADS
FARTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. TOLLESON /MH

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING WE WILL STAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN HAVE A FRONT COME THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH THE GFS THE SLOWEST AND THE ECMWF THE FASTEST. THE MODELS
SUGGEST WE GET BACK INTO WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING THAT
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD CLIMO POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...OFFSHORE FLOW MEANS VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS AT COASTAL SITES. FOG WILL REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING
IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS NORTHERLY WINDS DROP
OFF. THIS WILL LOWER CIGS AND VIS TO LIFR AT KEUG...BUT KSLE MAY
DRIFT IN AND OUT OF IFR CONDITIONS...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. WILL
PROBABLY ALSO SEE FOG AT KHIO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. EASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE WILL KEEP KTTD AND KPDX VFR THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH
EASTERLY WINDS. GUSTS ON EAST APPROACHES UP TO 40 KT. IF WINDS DIE
DOWN AT THE TERMINAL...COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG AROUND SUNRISE.
EASTERLY WINDS DECREASING AFTER 09Z TUESDAY. BOWEN/MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS STAY FAIRLY BENIGN...EXCEPT GUSTS UP TO
25 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN...BUT EVEN WINDS THROUGH
THE GAPS DECREASE TONIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON TUESDAY
STARTING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT WINDS TO OUT OF THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS FOR THE MOST PART
SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KT...BUT MAY SEE ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT
IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR WINDS
T0 INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO 8 TO 10 FT THIS EVENING AND SHOULD GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 7 FT TUESDAY. WILL SEE SEAS BUILD BACK
UP TO AROUND 9 FT WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON FRIDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KT...AND WILL BUILD SEAS UP INTO THE LOWER
TEENS. ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FT FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOWEN/MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 090501
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
901 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS LEADING TO A
QUIET WEATHER NIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES ARE GENERALLY
CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM
THOUGH MANY LOCATIONS HAVE HAD RAPID RADIATIVE COOLING SINCE
SUNDOWN. A FEW PLACES WERE APPROACHING FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE OR
HAD LOW DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD ALLOW FURTHER COOLING
SO HAVE MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS. WITH THE RADIATIVE
COOLING, PATCHY FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS.
CURRENT FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT. HOWEVER, HAVE NOTICED
THAT MADRAS AIRPORT HAS 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY IN ITS LATEST
OBSERVATION AND HAD SOME FOG THIS MORNING SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
IN NORTH CENTRAL OREGON DOWN TO MADRAS. FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY
OUT. PERRY


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AND CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND
FLATTEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MIDWEEK.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHICH WILL TRAP SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
BENEATH IT. DAYS ARE GETTING LONGER WITH RESULTING SOLAR RADIATION
HEATING THE GROUND INCREASING SO EXPECT SOME OF THE FOG TO BURN OFF
DURING THE DAYS ONLY TO REFORM AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD LEVELS ABOVE THE
INVERSION.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WA/OR CASCADES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE SHOULD FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER THE VSBY COULD FALL TO NEAR 5SM AND LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE APPROACHED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z IN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  31  51  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  31  49  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  31  47  31  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  29  50  33  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  30  48  31  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  24  42  28  44 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  35  65  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  32  52  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  33  61  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  33  53  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/97/97




000
FXUS66 KMFR 090412
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
812 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING, MAINLY
TO ADJUST TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH THE VERY WARM DAYTIME TEMPS
TODAY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
BE AN AVIATION HAZARD AT ALL 4 TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS SHORT TERM
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS 1500-2000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND
PERHAPS THE SCOTT, ILLINOIS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL BE VFR. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016...A THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS BEYOND LONGITUDE 130W. A FRONT
MAY MOVE NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THIS FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS BUT THERE MAY BE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS. A STRONGER FRONT WILL
MOVE IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS.

ANOTHER STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 18 SECONDS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. -BPN/FB


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...THE WESTERN REGION SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE THIS
MORNING REVEALED NAEFS FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WERE TO BE SOME
OF THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED IN THE THE PAST 30 YEARS. THIS HAS
PROVEN ACCURATE AS NORTH BEND AT 155 PM PST WAS 79 AND HAD BROKEN
ITS PREVIOUS RECORD OF 69 SET IN 1963. ALSO AS OF AT 205 PM PST
MEDFORD HAS REACHED 76 AND HAS ALSO BROKEN ITS PREVIOUS RECORD OF
70 SET IN 1996. TO KEEP THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, MEDFORD`S ALL-TIME
HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED IN FEBRUARY WAS 79 IN 1992, AND THAT
OCCURRED ON THE 26TH. LASTLY, AS OF 155 PM, KLAMATH FALLS WAS 58,
AND THIS TIES THEIR PREVIOUS RECORD OF 58 IN 1996. CHECK RECORD
EVENT REPORTS AFTER 4 PM FOR OFFICIAL RECORDS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY OVER THE REGION HOWEVER THE STRONG EASTERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EASING AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST EXPANDS NORTHWARD AND COASTAL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS RELAX. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD. UPCOMING TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES DON`T
LOOK NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE OVER THE AREA AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
NUDGE DOWNWARD IN HIGHS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS SO A BUNCH OF
ADDITIONAL RECORDS AREN`T ANTICIPATED, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE ANOTHER RECORD OR TWO FALL.

OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN IN THE UMPQUA AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS, AND INTO SOME OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING A CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COOS, CURRY,
AND WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. STAVISH

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OVERALL, THE RIDGE THAT
IS BRINGING THE UNSEASONABLY MILD (WARM) WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS WEEK WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A MODEST
COOLING TREND. FLAT RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT PACIFIC DISTURBANCES STILL MAY RIDE OVER THE TOP AT TIMES.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE,
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS SLOWER THAN BOTH THE 12Z
ECWMF/CANADIAN GEM MODELS. FOR FRIDAY, HAVE BLENDED SOLUTIONS HERE TO
IRON OUT SOME OF THE DETAILS, WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. HAVE KEPT IT MOSTLY DRY OVER
THE EAST SIDE AND IN MODOC COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, MOSTLY
ABOVE 6000 FEET.

SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...AGAIN HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP A BIT DOWN TO 4000 TO 5000
FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.

CONFIDENCE LESSENS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO REBUILD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES IT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT WITH A WARM FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH.
MODEL SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE LARGE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE RIDGE FAIRLY ROBUSTLY, WHILE THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM REMAIN FLAT ENOUGH THAT A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CAN
STILL BRING SOME RAIN, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE. CONTINUITY LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION AND
HAVE LEFT THIS MOSTLY AS IS.

BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS, SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THEN. SPILDE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/MTS/MS/FJB




000
FXUS66 KMFR 090412
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
812 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING, MAINLY
TO ADJUST TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH THE VERY WARM DAYTIME TEMPS
TODAY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
BE AN AVIATION HAZARD AT ALL 4 TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS SHORT TERM
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS 1500-2000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND
PERHAPS THE SCOTT, ILLINOIS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL BE VFR. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016...A THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS BEYOND LONGITUDE 130W. A FRONT
MAY MOVE NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THIS FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS BUT THERE MAY BE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS. A STRONGER FRONT WILL
MOVE IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS.

ANOTHER STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 18 SECONDS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. -BPN/FB


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...THE WESTERN REGION SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE THIS
MORNING REVEALED NAEFS FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WERE TO BE SOME
OF THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED IN THE THE PAST 30 YEARS. THIS HAS
PROVEN ACCURATE AS NORTH BEND AT 155 PM PST WAS 79 AND HAD BROKEN
ITS PREVIOUS RECORD OF 69 SET IN 1963. ALSO AS OF AT 205 PM PST
MEDFORD HAS REACHED 76 AND HAS ALSO BROKEN ITS PREVIOUS RECORD OF
70 SET IN 1996. TO KEEP THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, MEDFORD`S ALL-TIME
HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED IN FEBRUARY WAS 79 IN 1992, AND THAT
OCCURRED ON THE 26TH. LASTLY, AS OF 155 PM, KLAMATH FALLS WAS 58,
AND THIS TIES THEIR PREVIOUS RECORD OF 58 IN 1996. CHECK RECORD
EVENT REPORTS AFTER 4 PM FOR OFFICIAL RECORDS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY OVER THE REGION HOWEVER THE STRONG EASTERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EASING AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST EXPANDS NORTHWARD AND COASTAL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS RELAX. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD. UPCOMING TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES DON`T
LOOK NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE OVER THE AREA AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
NUDGE DOWNWARD IN HIGHS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS SO A BUNCH OF
ADDITIONAL RECORDS AREN`T ANTICIPATED, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE ANOTHER RECORD OR TWO FALL.

OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN IN THE UMPQUA AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS, AND INTO SOME OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING A CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COOS, CURRY,
AND WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. STAVISH

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OVERALL, THE RIDGE THAT
IS BRINGING THE UNSEASONABLY MILD (WARM) WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS WEEK WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A MODEST
COOLING TREND. FLAT RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT PACIFIC DISTURBANCES STILL MAY RIDE OVER THE TOP AT TIMES.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE,
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS SLOWER THAN BOTH THE 12Z
ECWMF/CANADIAN GEM MODELS. FOR FRIDAY, HAVE BLENDED SOLUTIONS HERE TO
IRON OUT SOME OF THE DETAILS, WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. HAVE KEPT IT MOSTLY DRY OVER
THE EAST SIDE AND IN MODOC COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, MOSTLY
ABOVE 6000 FEET.

SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...AGAIN HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP A BIT DOWN TO 4000 TO 5000
FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.

CONFIDENCE LESSENS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO REBUILD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES IT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT WITH A WARM FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH.
MODEL SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE LARGE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE RIDGE FAIRLY ROBUSTLY, WHILE THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM REMAIN FLAT ENOUGH THAT A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CAN
STILL BRING SOME RAIN, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE. CONTINUITY LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION AND
HAVE LEFT THIS MOSTLY AS IS.

BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS, SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THEN. SPILDE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/MTS/MS/FJB




000
FXUS66 KMFR 090412
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
812 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING, MAINLY
TO ADJUST TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH THE VERY WARM DAYTIME TEMPS
TODAY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
BE AN AVIATION HAZARD AT ALL 4 TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS SHORT TERM
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS 1500-2000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND
PERHAPS THE SCOTT, ILLINOIS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL BE VFR. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016...A THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS BEYOND LONGITUDE 130W. A FRONT
MAY MOVE NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THIS FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS BUT THERE MAY BE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS. A STRONGER FRONT WILL
MOVE IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS.

ANOTHER STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 18 SECONDS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. -BPN/FB


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...THE WESTERN REGION SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE THIS
MORNING REVEALED NAEFS FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WERE TO BE SOME
OF THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED IN THE THE PAST 30 YEARS. THIS HAS
PROVEN ACCURATE AS NORTH BEND AT 155 PM PST WAS 79 AND HAD BROKEN
ITS PREVIOUS RECORD OF 69 SET IN 1963. ALSO AS OF AT 205 PM PST
MEDFORD HAS REACHED 76 AND HAS ALSO BROKEN ITS PREVIOUS RECORD OF
70 SET IN 1996. TO KEEP THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, MEDFORD`S ALL-TIME
HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED IN FEBRUARY WAS 79 IN 1992, AND THAT
OCCURRED ON THE 26TH. LASTLY, AS OF 155 PM, KLAMATH FALLS WAS 58,
AND THIS TIES THEIR PREVIOUS RECORD OF 58 IN 1996. CHECK RECORD
EVENT REPORTS AFTER 4 PM FOR OFFICIAL RECORDS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY OVER THE REGION HOWEVER THE STRONG EASTERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EASING AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST EXPANDS NORTHWARD AND COASTAL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS RELAX. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD. UPCOMING TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES DON`T
LOOK NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE OVER THE AREA AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
NUDGE DOWNWARD IN HIGHS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS SO A BUNCH OF
ADDITIONAL RECORDS AREN`T ANTICIPATED, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE ANOTHER RECORD OR TWO FALL.

OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN IN THE UMPQUA AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS, AND INTO SOME OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING A CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COOS, CURRY,
AND WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. STAVISH

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OVERALL, THE RIDGE THAT
IS BRINGING THE UNSEASONABLY MILD (WARM) WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS WEEK WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A MODEST
COOLING TREND. FLAT RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT PACIFIC DISTURBANCES STILL MAY RIDE OVER THE TOP AT TIMES.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE,
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS SLOWER THAN BOTH THE 12Z
ECWMF/CANADIAN GEM MODELS. FOR FRIDAY, HAVE BLENDED SOLUTIONS HERE TO
IRON OUT SOME OF THE DETAILS, WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. HAVE KEPT IT MOSTLY DRY OVER
THE EAST SIDE AND IN MODOC COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, MOSTLY
ABOVE 6000 FEET.

SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...AGAIN HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP A BIT DOWN TO 4000 TO 5000
FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.

CONFIDENCE LESSENS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO REBUILD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES IT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT WITH A WARM FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH.
MODEL SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE LARGE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE RIDGE FAIRLY ROBUSTLY, WHILE THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM REMAIN FLAT ENOUGH THAT A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CAN
STILL BRING SOME RAIN, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE. CONTINUITY LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION AND
HAVE LEFT THIS MOSTLY AS IS.

BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS, SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THEN. SPILDE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/MTS/MS/FJB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 090338
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
838 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
OREGON AT THIS TIME. 500MB HEIGHTS ON THE BOI 00Z/SOUNDING AT
5870M /HIGHEST EVER IN FEB-MAR-APR IN BOI SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY
DATING BACK TO 1948...AVERAGE IS 5566M/. THESE HEIGHTS ARE
TYPICAL OF WHAT WE SEE IN EARLY AUGUST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S AT BEND AND JOHN DAY OREGON AND LOW 80S IN WESTERN
OREGON. COOL/MOIST AIR IS MOVING DOWN THE SNAKE PLAIN FROM
EASTERN IDAHO /DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOW COVER/ AND IS POOLING IN THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AROUND ONTARIO. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE VALLEY
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AND HOW QUICKLY AND/IF STRATUS BURNS OFF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REFLECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AS FOG AND STRATUS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SAW MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS...WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR...IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND DURATION IS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT
ALL TAF SITES COULD BE AFFECTED. KTWF..KJER..AND KMYL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE BUT MAINLY EAST 10 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20 KTS AFTER
18Z THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...00Z/TUE SOUNDING AT BOISE REVEALED A STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION STARTING AROUND 5100 FT MSL. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ALOFT. COOL/MOIST AIR
WILL SLOWLY DRAIN DOWN THE SNAKE PLAIN FROM EASTERN IDAHO
ENHANCING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BELOW 5000 FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VERY QUIET WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID
WEEK. BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG.
THINK THE AIRMASS HAS FINALLY STARTED TO PRIME ITSELF WITH THE
INVERTED CONDITIONS AS EASTERLY WINDS BRING A COOL MOIST FLOW DOWN
THE VALLEY FROM EASTERN IDAHO TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LAST TWO
MORNINGS THE STRATUS PUSHES FURTHER WEST...BY TUESDAY MORNING IT
SHOULD FINALLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE VALLEY HAS SEEN
LAST FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THE INVERSION
WILL STRENGTHEN AS 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF THE LOWER VALLEYS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
THINKING THAT VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO AN
INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES
AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE INVERSION WILL BREAK AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM. MODELS SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING AT LEAST OVER NORTHERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY...BUT THIS RIDGE WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT RIDGE AND MODELS ALSO HINTING THAT
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE ZONAL...THEREFORE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND DRY EVERYWHERE ELSE. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JT
AIR STAGNATION...KA
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 090338
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
838 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
OREGON AT THIS TIME. 500MB HEIGHTS ON THE BOI 00Z/SOUNDING AT
5870M /HIGHEST EVER IN FEB-MAR-APR IN BOI SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY
DATING BACK TO 1948...AVERAGE IS 5566M/. THESE HEIGHTS ARE
TYPICAL OF WHAT WE SEE IN EARLY AUGUST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S AT BEND AND JOHN DAY OREGON AND LOW 80S IN WESTERN
OREGON. COOL/MOIST AIR IS MOVING DOWN THE SNAKE PLAIN FROM
EASTERN IDAHO /DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOW COVER/ AND IS POOLING IN THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AROUND ONTARIO. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE VALLEY
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AND HOW QUICKLY AND/IF STRATUS BURNS OFF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REFLECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AS FOG AND STRATUS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SAW MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS...WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR...IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND DURATION IS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT
ALL TAF SITES COULD BE AFFECTED. KTWF..KJER..AND KMYL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE BUT MAINLY EAST 10 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20 KTS AFTER
18Z THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...00Z/TUE SOUNDING AT BOISE REVEALED A STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION STARTING AROUND 5100 FT MSL. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ALOFT. COOL/MOIST AIR
WILL SLOWLY DRAIN DOWN THE SNAKE PLAIN FROM EASTERN IDAHO
ENHANCING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BELOW 5000 FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VERY QUIET WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID
WEEK. BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG.
THINK THE AIRMASS HAS FINALLY STARTED TO PRIME ITSELF WITH THE
INVERTED CONDITIONS AS EASTERLY WINDS BRING A COOL MOIST FLOW DOWN
THE VALLEY FROM EASTERN IDAHO TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LAST TWO
MORNINGS THE STRATUS PUSHES FURTHER WEST...BY TUESDAY MORNING IT
SHOULD FINALLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE VALLEY HAS SEEN
LAST FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THE INVERSION
WILL STRENGTHEN AS 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF THE LOWER VALLEYS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
THINKING THAT VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO AN
INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES
AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE INVERSION WILL BREAK AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM. MODELS SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING AT LEAST OVER NORTHERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY...BUT THIS RIDGE WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT RIDGE AND MODELS ALSO HINTING THAT
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE ZONAL...THEREFORE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND DRY EVERYWHERE ELSE. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JT
AIR STAGNATION...KA
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 090338
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
838 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
OREGON AT THIS TIME. 500MB HEIGHTS ON THE BOI 00Z/SOUNDING AT
5870M /HIGHEST EVER IN FEB-MAR-APR IN BOI SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY
DATING BACK TO 1948...AVERAGE IS 5566M/. THESE HEIGHTS ARE
TYPICAL OF WHAT WE SEE IN EARLY AUGUST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S AT BEND AND JOHN DAY OREGON AND LOW 80S IN WESTERN
OREGON. COOL/MOIST AIR IS MOVING DOWN THE SNAKE PLAIN FROM
EASTERN IDAHO /DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOW COVER/ AND IS POOLING IN THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AROUND ONTARIO. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE VALLEY
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AND HOW QUICKLY AND/IF STRATUS BURNS OFF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REFLECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AS FOG AND STRATUS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SAW MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS...WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR...IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND DURATION IS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT
ALL TAF SITES COULD BE AFFECTED. KTWF..KJER..AND KMYL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE BUT MAINLY EAST 10 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20 KTS AFTER
18Z THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...00Z/TUE SOUNDING AT BOISE REVEALED A STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION STARTING AROUND 5100 FT MSL. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ALOFT. COOL/MOIST AIR
WILL SLOWLY DRAIN DOWN THE SNAKE PLAIN FROM EASTERN IDAHO
ENHANCING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BELOW 5000 FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VERY QUIET WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID
WEEK. BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG.
THINK THE AIRMASS HAS FINALLY STARTED TO PRIME ITSELF WITH THE
INVERTED CONDITIONS AS EASTERLY WINDS BRING A COOL MOIST FLOW DOWN
THE VALLEY FROM EASTERN IDAHO TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LAST TWO
MORNINGS THE STRATUS PUSHES FURTHER WEST...BY TUESDAY MORNING IT
SHOULD FINALLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE VALLEY HAS SEEN
LAST FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THE INVERSION
WILL STRENGTHEN AS 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF THE LOWER VALLEYS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
THINKING THAT VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO AN
INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES
AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE INVERSION WILL BREAK AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM. MODELS SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING AT LEAST OVER NORTHERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY...BUT THIS RIDGE WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT RIDGE AND MODELS ALSO HINTING THAT
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE ZONAL...THEREFORE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND DRY EVERYWHERE ELSE. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JT
AIR STAGNATION...KA
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 090338
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
838 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
OREGON AT THIS TIME. 500MB HEIGHTS ON THE BOI 00Z/SOUNDING AT
5870M /HIGHEST EVER IN FEB-MAR-APR IN BOI SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY
DATING BACK TO 1948...AVERAGE IS 5566M/. THESE HEIGHTS ARE
TYPICAL OF WHAT WE SEE IN EARLY AUGUST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S AT BEND AND JOHN DAY OREGON AND LOW 80S IN WESTERN
OREGON. COOL/MOIST AIR IS MOVING DOWN THE SNAKE PLAIN FROM
EASTERN IDAHO /DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOW COVER/ AND IS POOLING IN THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AROUND ONTARIO. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE VALLEY
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AND HOW QUICKLY AND/IF STRATUS BURNS OFF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REFLECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AS FOG AND STRATUS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SAW MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS...WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR...IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND DURATION IS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT
ALL TAF SITES COULD BE AFFECTED. KTWF..KJER..AND KMYL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE BUT MAINLY EAST 10 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20 KTS AFTER
18Z THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...00Z/TUE SOUNDING AT BOISE REVEALED A STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION STARTING AROUND 5100 FT MSL. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ALOFT. COOL/MOIST AIR
WILL SLOWLY DRAIN DOWN THE SNAKE PLAIN FROM EASTERN IDAHO
ENHANCING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BELOW 5000 FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VERY QUIET WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID
WEEK. BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG.
THINK THE AIRMASS HAS FINALLY STARTED TO PRIME ITSELF WITH THE
INVERTED CONDITIONS AS EASTERLY WINDS BRING A COOL MOIST FLOW DOWN
THE VALLEY FROM EASTERN IDAHO TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LAST TWO
MORNINGS THE STRATUS PUSHES FURTHER WEST...BY TUESDAY MORNING IT
SHOULD FINALLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE VALLEY HAS SEEN
LAST FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THE INVERSION
WILL STRENGTHEN AS 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF THE LOWER VALLEYS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
THINKING THAT VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO AN
INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES
AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE INVERSION WILL BREAK AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM. MODELS SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING AT LEAST OVER NORTHERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY...BUT THIS RIDGE WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT RIDGE AND MODELS ALSO HINTING THAT
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE ZONAL...THEREFORE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND DRY EVERYWHERE ELSE. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JT
AIR STAGNATION...KA
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 090338
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
838 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
OREGON AT THIS TIME. 500MB HEIGHTS ON THE BOI 00Z/SOUNDING AT
5870M /HIGHEST EVER IN FEB-MAR-APR IN BOI SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY
DATING BACK TO 1948...AVERAGE IS 5566M/. THESE HEIGHTS ARE
TYPICAL OF WHAT WE SEE IN EARLY AUGUST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S AT BEND AND JOHN DAY OREGON AND LOW 80S IN WESTERN
OREGON. COOL/MOIST AIR IS MOVING DOWN THE SNAKE PLAIN FROM
EASTERN IDAHO /DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOW COVER/ AND IS POOLING IN THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AROUND ONTARIO. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE VALLEY
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AND HOW QUICKLY AND/IF STRATUS BURNS OFF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REFLECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AS FOG AND STRATUS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SAW MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS...WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
MVFR TO LIFR...IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND DURATION IS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT
ALL TAF SITES COULD BE AFFECTED. KTWF..KJER..AND KMYL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE BUT MAINLY EAST 10 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20 KTS AFTER
18Z THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...00Z/TUE SOUNDING AT BOISE REVEALED A STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION STARTING AROUND 5100 FT MSL. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ALOFT. COOL/MOIST AIR
WILL SLOWLY DRAIN DOWN THE SNAKE PLAIN FROM EASTERN IDAHO
ENHANCING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BELOW 5000 FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VERY QUIET WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID
WEEK. BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG.
THINK THE AIRMASS HAS FINALLY STARTED TO PRIME ITSELF WITH THE
INVERTED CONDITIONS AS EASTERLY WINDS BRING A COOL MOIST FLOW DOWN
THE VALLEY FROM EASTERN IDAHO TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LAST TWO
MORNINGS THE STRATUS PUSHES FURTHER WEST...BY TUESDAY MORNING IT
SHOULD FINALLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE VALLEY HAS SEEN
LAST FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THE INVERSION
WILL STRENGTHEN AS 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF THE LOWER VALLEYS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
THINKING THAT VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO AN
INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES
AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE INVERSION WILL BREAK AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM. MODELS SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING AT LEAST OVER NORTHERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY...BUT THIS RIDGE WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT RIDGE AND MODELS ALSO HINTING THAT
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE ZONAL...THEREFORE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND DRY EVERYWHERE ELSE. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JT
AIR STAGNATION...KA
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS66 KPQR 082237
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
236 PM PST MON FEB  8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH BRISK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST LATER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FIRST WEAK SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
OTHER SYSTEMS WILL TRY TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS IN
PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS PATTERN
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH UNTIL LATER TUESDAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN BRISK
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE GORGE AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE
ALREADY REACHED OVER 8 MB FROM THE DALLES TO TROUTDALE...SUPPORTING
GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH AT ROOSTER ROCK AND CORBETT AND 70 MPH OR HIGHER
AT CROWN POINT. THE WINDS ARE LESS ELSEWHERE AS THERE IS NOT MUCH
SUPPORT AT 850 MB OR 700 MB...BUT THERE IS A BIT OF A BREEZE ALONG
THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LAST VESTIGES OF LOW
CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAVE CLEARED THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME HAVE FORMED IN HOOD RIVER COUNTY EARLIER
TODAY IN THE UPSLOPE OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

WEATHER WISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER
MILD OR WARM DAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. WIND SHELTERED AREAS
OR AREAS THAT DECOUPLE FROM ANY WIND WILL GET COOL TONIGHT...INTO THE
30S...DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS IN THE DRIER AIR MASS OVER
THE AREA. LOOK FOR MORE AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INLAND AWAY FROM
THE GORGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE COVERAGE THAN WHAT WE SAW THIS
MORNING...AND PROBABLY NO LATER CLEARING EITHER.

THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TUESDAY DUE TO
THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...AND THE EAST WINDS SHOULD
START TO EASE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL TURN THE WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND WE SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP THERE. THE WEAK
SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT DOES NOT REALLY MAKE MUCH
HEADWAY INLAND AS IT LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS
ON THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. WITH THE WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INLAND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT HAD
DEVELOPED WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER IDAHO AND A LOW
OUT AROUND 140W TO 150W...BUT THE MAIN CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS AS MUCH OF THE ENERGY HEADS
FARTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING WE WILL STAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN HAVE A FRONT COME THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH THE GFS THE SLOWEST AND THE ECMWF THE FASTEST. THE MODELS
SUGGEST WE GET BACK INTO WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING THAT
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM
MODELS. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD CLIMO POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...OFFSHORE FLOW MEANS VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS AT
COASTAL SITES. FOG WILL REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTH AND
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS NORTHERLY WINDS DROP OFF. THIS WILL
LOWER CIGS AND VIS TO LIFR AT KEUG...BUT KSLE MAY DRIFT IN AND OUT OF
IT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. WILL PROBABLY ALSO SEE FOG AT KHIO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE WILL KEEP KTTD AND
KPDX VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. EASTERLY
WINDS INCREASING NEAR THE GORGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KT
POSSIBLE NEAR THE WEST END OF THE GORGE. WINDS DECREASING AFTER 09Z
TUESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS STAY FAIRLY BENIGN TODAY...EXCEPT GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN. WINDS THROUGH THESE GAPS
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON TUESDAY
STARTING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT WINDS TO SOUTHERLY ACROSS
THE WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD STAY BELOW 20
KT...BUT WE MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS.
NOT CONFIDENT RIGHT NOW THESE GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT WILL BE FREQUENT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR WINDS T0 INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT
WHICH MOVES THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

SEAS AROUND 10 TO 12 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO 7 TO 8
FT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL SEE SEAS BUILD BACK UP TO AROUND 9
FT WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
KT...AND WILL BUILD SEAS UP INTO THE LOWER TEENS. ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM PST
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 082228
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
228 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AND CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND
FLATTEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MIDWEEK.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHICH WILL TRAP SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
BENEATH IT. DAYS ARE GETTING LONGER WITH RESULTING SOLAR RADIATION
HEATING THE GROUND INCREASING SO EXPECT SOME OF THE FOG TO BURN OFF
DURING THE DAYS ONLY TO REFORM AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD LEVELS ABOVE THE
INVERSION.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WA/OR CASCADES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE SHOULD FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER THE VSBY COULD FALL TO NEAR 5SM AND LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE APPROACHED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z IN PATCHY FOG.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  30  50  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  31  50  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  31  47  31  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  29  50  33  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  29  48  31  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  24  42  28  44 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  39  61  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  32  52  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  31  57  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  33  53  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/97/97



000
FXUS66 KPDT 082228
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
228 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AND CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND
FLATTEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MIDWEEK.
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHICH WILL TRAP SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
BENEATH IT. DAYS ARE GETTING LONGER WITH RESULTING SOLAR RADIATION
HEATING THE GROUND INCREASING SO EXPECT SOME OF THE FOG TO BURN OFF
DURING THE DAYS ONLY TO REFORM AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD LEVELS ABOVE THE
INVERSION.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WA/OR CASCADES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL MIGRATE EAST INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE SHOULD FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER THE VSBY COULD FALL TO NEAR 5SM AND LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE APPROACHED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z IN PATCHY FOG.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  30  50  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  31  50  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  31  47  31  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  29  50  33  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  29  48  31  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  24  42  28  44 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  39  61  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  32  52  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  31  57  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  33  53  35  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ041-044-
     050-502-503-505-507-508-510.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR WAZ024-
     026>029-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/97/97




000
FXUS66 KMFR 082214
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
214 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THE WESTERN REGION SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE THIS
MORNING REVEALED NAEFS FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WERE TO BE SOME
OF THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED IN THE THE PAST 30 YEARS. THIS HAS
PROVEN ACCURATE AS NORTH BEND AT 155 PM PST WAS 79 AND HAD BROKEN
ITS PREVIOUS RECORD OF 69 SET IN 1963. ALSO AS OF AT 205 PM PST
MEDFORD HAS REACHED 76 AND HAS ALSO BROKEN ITS PREVIOUS RECORD OF
70 SET IN 1996. TO KEEP THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, MEDFORD`S ALL-TIME
HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED IN FEBRUARY WAS 79 IN 1992, AND THAT
OCCURRED ON THE 26TH. LASTLY, AS OF 155 PM, KLAMATH FALLS WAS 58,
AND THIS TIES THEIR PREVIOUS RECORD OF 58 IN 1996. CHECK RECORD
EVENT REPORTS AFTER 4 PM FOR OFFICIAL RECORDS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY OVER THE REGION HOWEVER THE STRONG EASTERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EASING AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST EXPANDS NORTHWARD AND COASTAL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS RELAX. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD. UPCOMING TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES DON`T
LOOK NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE OVER THE AREA AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
NUDGE DOWNWARD IN HIGHS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS SO A BUNCH OF
ADDITIONAL RECORDS AREN`T ANTICIPATED, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE ANOTHER RECORD OR TWO FALL.

OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN IN THE UMPQUA AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS, AND INTO SOME OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING A CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COOS, CURRY,
AND WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. STAVISH

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OVERALL, THE RIDGE THAT
IS BRINGING THE UNSEASONABLY MILD (WARM) WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS WEEK WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A MODEST
COOLING TREND. FLAT RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT PACIFIC DISTURBANCES STILL MAY RIDE OVER THE TOP AT TIMES.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE,
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS SLOWER THAN BOTH THE 12Z
ECWMF/CANADIAN GEM MODELS. FOR FRIDAY, HAVE BLENDED SOLUTIONS HERE TO
IRON OUT SOME OF THE DETAILS, WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. HAVE KEPT IT MOSTLY DRY OVER
THE EAST SIDE AND IN MODOC COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, MOSTLY
ABOVE 6000 FEET.

SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...AGAIN HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP A BIT DOWN TO 4000 TO 5000
FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.

CONFIDENCE LESSENS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO REBUILD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES IT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT WITH A WARM FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH.
MODEL SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE LARGE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE RIDGE FAIRLY ROBUSTLY, WHILE THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM REMAIN FLAT ENOUGH THAT A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CAN
STILL BRING SOME RAIN, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE. CONTINUITY LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION AND
HAVE LEFT THIS MOSTLY AS IS.

BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS, SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THEN. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 08/18Z TAF CYCLE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
AN AVIATION HAZARD AT WEST SIDE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND WINDS ABOUT 1500 FEET OFF THE GROUND
ARE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 30-40KT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
ROSEBURG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND PERHAPS THE SCOTT, ILLINOIS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016...A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS BEYOND LONGITUDE 130W. A FRONT MAY MOVE NEAR
THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS FRONT
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS BUT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE IN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS.

ANOTHER STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 18 SECONDS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ021.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 082214
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
214 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...THE WESTERN REGION SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE THIS
MORNING REVEALED NAEFS FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WERE TO BE SOME
OF THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED IN THE THE PAST 30 YEARS. THIS HAS
PROVEN ACCURATE AS NORTH BEND AT 155 PM PST WAS 79 AND HAD BROKEN
ITS PREVIOUS RECORD OF 69 SET IN 1963. ALSO AS OF AT 205 PM PST
MEDFORD HAS REACHED 76 AND HAS ALSO BROKEN ITS PREVIOUS RECORD OF
70 SET IN 1996. TO KEEP THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, MEDFORD`S ALL-TIME
HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED IN FEBRUARY WAS 79 IN 1992, AND THAT
OCCURRED ON THE 26TH. LASTLY, AS OF 155 PM, KLAMATH FALLS WAS 58,
AND THIS TIES THEIR PREVIOUS RECORD OF 58 IN 1996. CHECK RECORD
EVENT REPORTS AFTER 4 PM FOR OFFICIAL RECORDS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY OVER THE REGION HOWEVER THE STRONG EASTERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EASING AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST EXPANDS NORTHWARD AND COASTAL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS RELAX. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD. UPCOMING TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES DON`T
LOOK NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE OVER THE AREA AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
NUDGE DOWNWARD IN HIGHS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS SO A BUNCH OF
ADDITIONAL RECORDS AREN`T ANTICIPATED, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE ANOTHER RECORD OR TWO FALL.

OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN IN THE UMPQUA AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS, AND INTO SOME OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING A CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COOS, CURRY,
AND WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. STAVISH

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OVERALL, THE RIDGE THAT
IS BRINGING THE UNSEASONABLY MILD (WARM) WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS WEEK WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A MODEST
COOLING TREND. FLAT RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT PACIFIC DISTURBANCES STILL MAY RIDE OVER THE TOP AT TIMES.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE,
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS SLOWER THAN BOTH THE 12Z
ECWMF/CANADIAN GEM MODELS. FOR FRIDAY, HAVE BLENDED SOLUTIONS HERE TO
IRON OUT SOME OF THE DETAILS, WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. HAVE KEPT IT MOSTLY DRY OVER
THE EAST SIDE AND IN MODOC COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, MOSTLY
ABOVE 6000 FEET.

SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...AGAIN HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP A BIT DOWN TO 4000 TO 5000
FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.

CONFIDENCE LESSENS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO REBUILD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES IT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT WITH A WARM FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH.
MODEL SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE LARGE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE RIDGE FAIRLY ROBUSTLY, WHILE THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM REMAIN FLAT ENOUGH THAT A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CAN
STILL BRING SOME RAIN, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE. CONTINUITY LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION AND
HAVE LEFT THIS MOSTLY AS IS.

BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS, SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THEN. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 08/18Z TAF CYCLE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
AN AVIATION HAZARD AT WEST SIDE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND WINDS ABOUT 1500 FEET OFF THE GROUND
ARE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 30-40KT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
ROSEBURG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND PERHAPS THE SCOTT, ILLINOIS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016...A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS BEYOND LONGITUDE 130W. A FRONT MAY MOVE NEAR
THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS FRONT
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS BUT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE IN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS.

ANOTHER STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 18 SECONDS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ021.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 082133
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
233 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VERY QUIET WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID
WEEK. BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG.
THINK THE AIRMASS HAS FINALLY STARTED TO PRIME ITSELF WITH THE
INVERTED CONDITIONS AS EASTERLY WINDS BRING A COOL MOIST FLOW DOWN
THE VALLEY FROM EASTERN IDAHO TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LAST TWO
MORNINGS THE STRATUS PUSHES FURTHER WEST...BY TUESDAY MORNING IT
SHOULD FINALLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE VALLEY HAS SEEN
LAST FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THE INVERSION
WILL STREGNTHEN AS 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF THE LOWER VALLEYS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
THINKING THAT VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO AN
INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES
AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE INVERSION WILL BREAK AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM. MODELS SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING AT LEAST OVER NORTHERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY...BUT THIS RIDGE WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT RIDGE AND MODELS ALSO HINTING THAT
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE ZONAL...THEREFORE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND DRY EVERYWHERE ELSE. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE KBNO...KBKE AND KMYL AREAS. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO DISSIPATE SOME OF THE FOG AND STRATUS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN IN THE EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NORTHWEST 10-20
KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.
&&

.AIR STAGNATION...
WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE MID LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS
HELPING TO STREGNTHEN THE INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS
WITH PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
THROUGH THE MAGIC VALLEY...ALONG WITH THE LONG VALLEY AND BAKER. MIXING
HEIGHTS AROUND 1000 FEET ARE EXPECTED WITH TRANSPORT WINDS FROM
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...CR
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA
AIR STAGNATION...CR




000
FXUS66 KPQR 081924 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1124 AM PST MON FEB  8 2016

ENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ZONE 8

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH BRISK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE...WEAKENING AND MOVING EAST LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
FIRST WEAK SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST WEDNESDAY. OTHER SYSTEMS WILL TRY
TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS IN
PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...AND WILL NOT DO MUCH UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN BRISK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
GORGE AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED 8 MB FROM
THE DALLES TO TROUTDALE. THIS SUPPORTS GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH AT ROOSTER
ROCK AND CORBETT...AND 70 MPH OR HIGHER AT CROWN POINT. THE WINDS ARE
LESS ELSEWHERE AS THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT AT 850 MB OR 700 MB...BUT
THERE IS A BIT OF A BREEZE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE MAIN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COVERAGE IS IN THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALSO SOME UP NEAR KELSO. STILL...AREAL
COVERAGE IS LESS THAN THERE WAS ON SUNDAY AND EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH EUGENE THE LAST TO CLEAR.

THE AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT ABOVE THE INVERSION...SO WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER MILD DAY IN THE COAST RANGE...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND ALONG
THE COAST. INLAND VALLEY AREAS WILL PROBABLY GET CLOSE TO WHAT THEY
SAW SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EAST WIND MAY KNOCK DOWN TROUTDALE AND KPDX A
BIT. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO DAILY RECORDS TODAY. HAVING
TROUBLE MONITORING TEMPS IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS
DUE TO A RAWS OUTAGE SINCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A DRIER AIR MASS FROM THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW WIND SHELTERED
AREAS TO COOL DOWN INTO THE 30S TONIGHT.

WEATHER WISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DUE TO THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...AND THE EAST WINDS SHOULD START TO EASE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL TURN THE WINDS MORE
SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WE SHOULD
SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP THERE. THE WEAK SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST
WEDNESDAY BUT DOES NOT REALLY MAKE MUCH HEADWAY INLAND AS IT LIFTS
OUT TO THE NORTH. WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS ON THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT
THAT IS ABOUT IT. WITH THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW...THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS INLAND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING WE WILL STAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SYSTEMS LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND MAINLY
BRUSHING OUR AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF DRY
WEATHER TOWARDS EASTERN LANE COUNTY. WE FINALLY GET A SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH WITH SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS MEANS
COASTAL SITES...KTTD...AND KPDX REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.
WILL SEE FOG AT OTHER NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY SITES CLEAR OUT BY
17-18Z...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL HELP KEEP TERMINALS CLEAR
LONGER TONIGHT...THOUGH STILL COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP EARLY
TUESDAY AT INLAND SITES AWAY FROM THE GORGE IF OFFSHORE GRADIENT
WEAKENS ENOUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOWN SOUTH NEAR KEUG...DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT TO LOW STRATUS...IMPROVING CIGS TO MVFR
AND VIS TO VFR BY AROUND 20-21Z. FOG EXTENT IS LESS THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...SO FEEL LIKE KEUG HAS A DECENT CHANCE OF BREAKING OUT TO
VFR TODAY AFTER 22Z. KEUG WILL LIKELY SEE FOG REDEVELOP AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST WIND GUSTING TO
35 KT AT WEST END OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 50 KT NEAR THE WEST END
OF THE GORGE BY 00Z...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AT KPDX. -MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL SEE GUSTS
MAINLY UP TO 20 KT NEAR THE COASTAL TERRAIN GAPS...WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE..FAIRLY BENIGN EASTERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS. WESTERLY SWELL IS BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT
THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL STAY FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY BEFORE SEAS DROP BACK DOWN TO AROUND 8 FT TONIGHT.

SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING THE CHANGE TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM FRONT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AND COULD BRING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY. WILL
MORE LIKELY SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS COME UP TO 20 TO 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
WATERS. WILL SEE SEAS BUILDING BACK ABOVE 10 FT LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
-MCCOY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM PST
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 081924 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1124 AM PST MON FEB  8 2016

ENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ZONE 8

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH BRISK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE...WEAKENING AND MOVING EAST LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
FIRST WEAK SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST WEDNESDAY. OTHER SYSTEMS WILL TRY
TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS IN
PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...AND WILL NOT DO MUCH UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN BRISK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
GORGE AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED 8 MB FROM
THE DALLES TO TROUTDALE. THIS SUPPORTS GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH AT ROOSTER
ROCK AND CORBETT...AND 70 MPH OR HIGHER AT CROWN POINT. THE WINDS ARE
LESS ELSEWHERE AS THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT AT 850 MB OR 700 MB...BUT
THERE IS A BIT OF A BREEZE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE MAIN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COVERAGE IS IN THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALSO SOME UP NEAR KELSO. STILL...AREAL
COVERAGE IS LESS THAN THERE WAS ON SUNDAY AND EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH EUGENE THE LAST TO CLEAR.

THE AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT ABOVE THE INVERSION...SO WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER MILD DAY IN THE COAST RANGE...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND ALONG
THE COAST. INLAND VALLEY AREAS WILL PROBABLY GET CLOSE TO WHAT THEY
SAW SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EAST WIND MAY KNOCK DOWN TROUTDALE AND KPDX A
BIT. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO DAILY RECORDS TODAY. HAVING
TROUBLE MONITORING TEMPS IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS
DUE TO A RAWS OUTAGE SINCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A DRIER AIR MASS FROM THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW WIND SHELTERED
AREAS TO COOL DOWN INTO THE 30S TONIGHT.

WEATHER WISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DUE TO THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...AND THE EAST WINDS SHOULD START TO EASE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL TURN THE WINDS MORE
SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WE SHOULD
SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP THERE. THE WEAK SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST
WEDNESDAY BUT DOES NOT REALLY MAKE MUCH HEADWAY INLAND AS IT LIFTS
OUT TO THE NORTH. WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS ON THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT
THAT IS ABOUT IT. WITH THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW...THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS INLAND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING WE WILL STAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SYSTEMS LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND MAINLY
BRUSHING OUR AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF DRY
WEATHER TOWARDS EASTERN LANE COUNTY. WE FINALLY GET A SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH WITH SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS MEANS
COASTAL SITES...KTTD...AND KPDX REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.
WILL SEE FOG AT OTHER NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY SITES CLEAR OUT BY
17-18Z...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL HELP KEEP TERMINALS CLEAR
LONGER TONIGHT...THOUGH STILL COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP EARLY
TUESDAY AT INLAND SITES AWAY FROM THE GORGE IF OFFSHORE GRADIENT
WEAKENS ENOUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOWN SOUTH NEAR KEUG...DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT TO LOW STRATUS...IMPROVING CIGS TO MVFR
AND VIS TO VFR BY AROUND 20-21Z. FOG EXTENT IS LESS THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...SO FEEL LIKE KEUG HAS A DECENT CHANCE OF BREAKING OUT TO
VFR TODAY AFTER 22Z. KEUG WILL LIKELY SEE FOG REDEVELOP AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST WIND GUSTING TO
35 KT AT WEST END OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 50 KT NEAR THE WEST END
OF THE GORGE BY 00Z...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AT KPDX. -MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL SEE GUSTS
MAINLY UP TO 20 KT NEAR THE COASTAL TERRAIN GAPS...WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE..FAIRLY BENIGN EASTERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS. WESTERLY SWELL IS BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT
THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL STAY FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY BEFORE SEAS DROP BACK DOWN TO AROUND 8 FT TONIGHT.

SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING THE CHANGE TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM FRONT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AND COULD BRING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY. WILL
MORE LIKELY SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS COME UP TO 20 TO 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
WATERS. WILL SEE SEAS BUILDING BACK ABOVE 10 FT LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
-MCCOY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM PST
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 081754
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
954 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...LEAVING THE CURRENT FORECAST AS-IS THIS MORNING.
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS IN SWING OVER THE REGION WITH SOME
CASCADE AND SOUTH COAST LOCATIONS GUSTING FROM THE EAST TO AROUND
30 MPH. CURRY COUNTY COASTAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S.
LATEST HRRR FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TAKE
OVER ON THE SOUTH COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES THERE WILL GET TO MUCH HIGHER.

MORNING SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS AND SCOTT
VALLEYS IN A LOW STRATUS WITH SOME FOG BEING REPORTED BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE TOO THICK SO WE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AREA-
WIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...WITH MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH MID WEEK. STAVISH


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 08/18Z TAF CYCLE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
AN AVIATION HAZARD AT WEST SIDE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND WINDS ABOUT 1500 FEET OFF THE GROUND
ARE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 30-40KT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
ROSEBURG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND PERHAPS THE SCOTT, ILLINOIS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR. SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016...STEEP SEAS
DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS
TODAY. A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND PUSH
INLAND BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS BEYOND 130W. A WEAK
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER
STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

A FRONT MAY NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS
BUT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS.  ANOTHER STEEP LONG
PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016/ THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A FIVE WAVE PATTERN
AROUND THE GLOBE WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDES. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE BUT LONGITUDINAL FLOW WILL INCREASE...CREATING A MORE
BLOCKY PATTERN AROUND THE GLOBE. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...BUT WILL SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST...AMPLIFYING THROUGH TODAY.
IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE MEDFORD CWA LATER THIS MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND OVER THE RIDGES. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...WHERE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN
INVERSIONS...WHICH WILL ALLOW NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS. SINCE THIS IS LATE IN THE
SEASON FOR SUCH PATTERNS...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

USUALLY AIR STAGNATION IS A CONCERN IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...BUT
GIVEN THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON MIXING...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...AND WEAK SHORT WAVES
EJECTING FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. TYPICALLY THE FIRST SHORT WAVE AFTER A RIDGE HAS
LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN HERALDING THE END OF OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...AND THESE LOOK TOO WEAK TO DO MUCH OF ANYTHING. THE SHORT
WAVES THAT FOLLOW WILL ALSO BE WEAK AND MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE 08/00Z GFS SOLUTION
LIMITS PRECIPITATION TO THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST.
MEANWHILE THE 08/00Z EC SOLUTION KEEPS IT DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT THEN PUSHES A WETTER COLD FRONT ONSHORE FRIDAY MORNING.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS TEND TO BREAK DOWN A STRONG RIDGE TOO
QUICKLY...AND KEEP PUSHING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BACK WITH
EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THAT APPEARS TO BE THE CASE HERE...BUT THE
DRY EVENT HAS TO END AT SOME POINT. SO...WILL BRING SOME CHANCE
POPS ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/MTS/JRS




000
FXUS66 KPDT 081736 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
929 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE STRENGTHENING
INVERSION. BELOW THE INVERSION WE WILL SEE DEVELOPING FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TAF SITES. HOWEVER THE VSBY COULD FALL TO NEAR 5SM AND LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE APPROACHED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z IN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  PATCHY FOG MAY
RESULT ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEY.  RIGHT NOW ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS WE SHOULD BE TO A POINT WHERE THE SUN ANGLE IS
GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO BURN OFF ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS.  BUT WE WILL
STILL MONITOR CERTAIN AREAS TO MAKE SURE PERSISTENT FOG DOES NOT
CONTINUE.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN OR/ID
BORDER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 15
TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER
THAN SUNDAY...AND IF THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS
QUICKER...TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
EITHER WAY TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH
EXCEPTION OF ANY AREAS THAT START OUT A BIT FOGGY.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES +/- OF THE PREVIOUS DAY.

MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE MUCH OTHER THAN POSSIBLE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WEBER

LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS (GFS AND NAM) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND THEY ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN AT PASS LEVELS AND
LOWER IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ONLY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
(ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON) WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND...WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE INCREASED
POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE
WITH MORE FREQUENT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO BRING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN THEY BEGIN TO DROP TO ABOUT 3500 FEET NORTHWEST CWA
AND 6000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPING ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS (ABOVE
PASS LEVELS) THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  31  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  31  50  36 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  50  30  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  51  30  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  50  30  48  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  42  23  45  30 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  61  39  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  50  29  48  36 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  55  32  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  55  31  53  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 081736 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
929 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE STRENGTHENING
INVERSION. BELOW THE INVERSION WE WILL SEE DEVELOPING FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TAF SITES. HOWEVER THE VSBY COULD FALL TO NEAR 5SM AND LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE APPROACHED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z IN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  PATCHY FOG MAY
RESULT ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEY.  RIGHT NOW ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS WE SHOULD BE TO A POINT WHERE THE SUN ANGLE IS
GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO BURN OFF ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS.  BUT WE WILL
STILL MONITOR CERTAIN AREAS TO MAKE SURE PERSISTENT FOG DOES NOT
CONTINUE.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN OR/ID
BORDER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 15
TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER
THAN SUNDAY...AND IF THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS
QUICKER...TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
EITHER WAY TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH
EXCEPTION OF ANY AREAS THAT START OUT A BIT FOGGY.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES +/- OF THE PREVIOUS DAY.

MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE MUCH OTHER THAN POSSIBLE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WEBER

LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS (GFS AND NAM) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND THEY ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN AT PASS LEVELS AND
LOWER IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ONLY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
(ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON) WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND...WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE INCREASED
POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE
WITH MORE FREQUENT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO BRING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN THEY BEGIN TO DROP TO ABOUT 3500 FEET NORTHWEST CWA
AND 6000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPING ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS (ABOVE
PASS LEVELS) THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  31  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  31  50  36 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  50  30  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  51  30  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  50  30  48  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  42  23  45  30 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  61  39  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  50  29  48  36 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  55  32  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  55  31  53  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 081736 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
929 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE STRENGTHENING
INVERSION. BELOW THE INVERSION WE WILL SEE DEVELOPING FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TAF SITES. HOWEVER THE VSBY COULD FALL TO NEAR 5SM AND LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE APPROACHED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z IN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  PATCHY FOG MAY
RESULT ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEY.  RIGHT NOW ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS WE SHOULD BE TO A POINT WHERE THE SUN ANGLE IS
GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO BURN OFF ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS.  BUT WE WILL
STILL MONITOR CERTAIN AREAS TO MAKE SURE PERSISTENT FOG DOES NOT
CONTINUE.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN OR/ID
BORDER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 15
TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER
THAN SUNDAY...AND IF THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS
QUICKER...TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
EITHER WAY TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH
EXCEPTION OF ANY AREAS THAT START OUT A BIT FOGGY.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES +/- OF THE PREVIOUS DAY.

MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE MUCH OTHER THAN POSSIBLE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WEBER

LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS (GFS AND NAM) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND THEY ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN AT PASS LEVELS AND
LOWER IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ONLY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
(ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON) WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND...WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE INCREASED
POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE
WITH MORE FREQUENT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO BRING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN THEY BEGIN TO DROP TO ABOUT 3500 FEET NORTHWEST CWA
AND 6000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPING ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS (ABOVE
PASS LEVELS) THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  31  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  31  50  36 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  50  30  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  51  30  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  50  30  48  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  42  23  45  30 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  61  39  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  50  29  48  36 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  55  32  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  55  31  53  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 081736 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
929 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE STRENGTHENING
INVERSION. BELOW THE INVERSION WE WILL SEE DEVELOPING FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TAF SITES. HOWEVER THE VSBY COULD FALL TO NEAR 5SM AND LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE APPROACHED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z IN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  PATCHY FOG MAY
RESULT ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEY.  RIGHT NOW ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS WE SHOULD BE TO A POINT WHERE THE SUN ANGLE IS
GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO BURN OFF ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS.  BUT WE WILL
STILL MONITOR CERTAIN AREAS TO MAKE SURE PERSISTENT FOG DOES NOT
CONTINUE.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN OR/ID
BORDER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 15
TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER
THAN SUNDAY...AND IF THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS
QUICKER...TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
EITHER WAY TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH
EXCEPTION OF ANY AREAS THAT START OUT A BIT FOGGY.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES +/- OF THE PREVIOUS DAY.

MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE MUCH OTHER THAN POSSIBLE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WEBER

LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS (GFS AND NAM) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND THEY ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN AT PASS LEVELS AND
LOWER IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ONLY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
(ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON) WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND...WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE INCREASED
POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE
WITH MORE FREQUENT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO BRING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN THEY BEGIN TO DROP TO ABOUT 3500 FEET NORTHWEST CWA
AND 6000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPING ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS (ABOVE
PASS LEVELS) THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  31  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  31  50  36 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  50  30  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  51  30  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  50  30  48  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  42  23  45  30 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  61  39  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  50  29  48  36 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  55  32  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  55  31  53  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/97/




000
FXUS66 KPDT 081736 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
929 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE STRENGTHENING
INVERSION. BELOW THE INVERSION WE WILL SEE DEVELOPING FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TAF SITES. HOWEVER THE VSBY COULD FALL TO NEAR 5SM AND LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE APPROACHED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z IN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  PATCHY FOG MAY
RESULT ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEY.  RIGHT NOW ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS WE SHOULD BE TO A POINT WHERE THE SUN ANGLE IS
GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO BURN OFF ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS.  BUT WE WILL
STILL MONITOR CERTAIN AREAS TO MAKE SURE PERSISTENT FOG DOES NOT
CONTINUE.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN OR/ID
BORDER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 15
TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER
THAN SUNDAY...AND IF THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS
QUICKER...TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
EITHER WAY TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH
EXCEPTION OF ANY AREAS THAT START OUT A BIT FOGGY.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES +/- OF THE PREVIOUS DAY.

MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE MUCH OTHER THAN POSSIBLE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WEBER

LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS (GFS AND NAM) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND THEY ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN AT PASS LEVELS AND
LOWER IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ONLY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
(ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON) WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND...WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE INCREASED
POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE
WITH MORE FREQUENT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO BRING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN THEY BEGIN TO DROP TO ABOUT 3500 FEET NORTHWEST CWA
AND 6000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPING ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS (ABOVE
PASS LEVELS) THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  31  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  31  50  36 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  50  30  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  51  30  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  50  30  48  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  42  23  45  30 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  61  39  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  50  29  48  36 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  55  32  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  55  31  53  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/97/




000
FXUS66 KMFR 081718
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
918 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...LEAVING THE CURRENT FORECAST AS-IS THIS MORNING.
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS IN SWING OVER THE REGION WITH SOME
CASCADE AND SOUTH COAST LOCATIONS GUSTING FROM THE EAST TO AROUND
30 MPH. CURRY COUNTY COASTAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S.
LATEST HRRR FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD TAKE
OVER ON THE SOUTH COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES THERE WILL GET TO MUCH HIGHER.

MORNING SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS AND SCOTT
VALLEYS IN A LOW STRATUS WITH SOME FOG BEING REPORTED BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE LOW CLOUDS ARE TOO THICK SO WE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AREA-
WIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...WITH MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH MID WEEK. STAVISH

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 08/12Z TAF CYCLE...IN DOUGLAS COUNTY LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR CONTINUES
UNDER CLEAR SKY. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND MOSTLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. AT KMFR
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG AROUND 15Z MONDAY BUT GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
CONTINUED VFR SO HAVE KEPT FOG OUT OF KMFR TAF FOR NOW. /SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 350 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016...A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST IS BRINGING LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS BEYOND 130W. STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE
WATERS MONDAY AS A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL OF AROUND 10 FEET AT 16
SECONDS BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. A FRONT MAY NEAR THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIABILITY WITH THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THOUGH AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MODERATE ON DETAILS FOR WAVE AND WIND FORECASTS DURING
THIS PERIOD. OVERALL, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SEAS LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STEEP SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. ANOTHER
STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. /SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016/ THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A FIVE WAVE PATTERN
AROUND THE GLOBE WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDES. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE BUT LONGITUDINAL FLOW WILL INCREASE...CREATING A MORE
BLOCKY PATTERN AROUND THE GLOBE. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...BUT WILL SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST...AMPLIFYING THROUGH TODAY.
IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE MEDFORD CWA LATER THIS MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND OVER THE RIDGES. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...WHERE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN
INVERSIONS...WHICH WILL ALLOW NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS. SINCE THIS IS LATE IN THE
SEASON FOR SUCH PATTERNS...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

USUALLY AIR STAGNATION IS A CONCERN IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...BUT
GIVEN THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON MIXING...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...AND WEAK SHORT WAVES
EJECTING FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. TYPICALLY THE FIRST SHORT WAVE AFTER A RIDGE HAS
LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN HERALDING THE END OF OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...AND THESE LOOK TOO WEAK TO DO MUCH OF ANYTHING. THE SHORT
WAVES THAT FOLLOW WILL ALSO BE WEAK AND MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE 08/00Z GFS SOLUTION
LIMITS PRECIPITATION TO THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST.
MEANWHILE THE 08/00Z EC SOLUTION KEEPS IT DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT THEN PUSHES A WETTER COLD FRONT ONSHORE FRIDAY MORNING.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS TEND TO BREAK DOWN A STRONG RIDGE TOO
QUICKLY...AND KEEP PUSHING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BACK WITH
EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THAT APPEARS TO BE THE CASE HERE...BUT THE
DRY EVENT HAS TO END AT SOME POINT. SO...WILL BRING SOME CHANCE
POPS ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ021.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 081716
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
916 AM PST MON FEB  8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH BRISK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE...WEAKENING AND MOVING EAST LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
FIRST WEAK SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST WEDNESDAY. OTHER SYSTEMS WILL TRY
TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS IN
PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY...AND WILL NOT DO MUCH UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN BRISK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
GORGE AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED 8 MB FROM
THE DALLES TO TROUTDALE. THIS SUPPORTS GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH AT ROOSTER
ROCK AND CORBETT...AND 70 MPH OR HIGHER AT CROWN POINT. THE WINDS ARE
LESS ELSEWHERE AS THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT AT 850 MB OR 700 MB...BUT
THERE IS A BIT OF A BREEZE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE MAIN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COVERAGE IS IN THE SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALSO SOME UP NEAR KELSO. HAVE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING. STILL...
AREAL COVERAGE IS LESS THAN THERE WAS ON SUNDAY AND EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH EUGENE THE LAST TO CLEAR.

THE AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT ABOVE THE INVERSION...SO WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER MILD DAY IN THE COAST RANGE...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND ALONG
THE COAST. INLAND VALLEY AREAS WILL PROBABLY GET CLOSE TO WHAT THEY
SAW SUNDAY...THOUGH THE EAST WIND MAY KNOCK DOWN TROUTDALE AND KPDX A
BIT. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO DAILY RECORDS TODAY. HAVING
TROUBLE MONITORING TEMPS IN THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS
DUE TO A RAWS OUTAGE SINCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A DRIER AIR MASS FROM THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW WIND SHELTERED
AREAS TO COOL DOWN INTO THE 30S TONIGHT.

WEATHER WISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DUE TO THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...AND THE EAST WINDS SHOULD START TO EASE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL TURN THE WINDS MORE
SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WE SHOULD
SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP THERE. THE WEAK SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST
WEDNESDAY BUT DOES NOT REALLY MAKE MUCH HEADWAY INLAND AS IT LIFTS
OUT TO THE NORTH. WILL HAVE SOME LOW POPS ON THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT
THAT IS ABOUT IT. WITH THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW...THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS INLAND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING WE WILL STAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SYSTEMS LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND MAINLY
BRUSHING OUR AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF DRY
WEATHER TOWARDS EASTERN LANE COUNTY. WE FINALLY GET A SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH WITH SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS MEANS
COASTAL SITES...KTTD...AND KPDX REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.
WILL SEE FOG AT OTHER NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY SITES CLEAR OUT BY
17-18Z...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL HELP KEEP TERMINALS CLEAR
LONGER TONIGHT...THOUGH STILL COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP EARLY
TUESDAY AT INLAND SITES AWAY FROM THE GORGE IF OFFSHORE GRADIENT
WEAKENS ENOUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOWN SOUTH NEAR KEUG...DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT TO LOW STRATUS...IMPROVING CIGS TO MVFR
AND VIS TO VFR BY AROUND 20-21Z. FOG EXTENT IS LESS THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...SO FEEL LIKE KEUG HAS A DECENT CHANCE OF BREAKING OUT TO
VFR TODAY AFTER 22Z. KEUG WILL LIKELY SEE FOG REDEVELOP AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST WIND GUSTING TO
35 KT AT WEST END OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 50 KT NEAR THE WEST END
OF THE GORGE BY 00Z...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AT KPDX. -MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL SEE GUSTS
MAINLY UP TO 20 KT NEAR THE COASTAL TERRAIN GAPS...WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE..FAIRLY BENIGN EASTERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS. WESTERLY SWELL IS BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT
THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL STAY FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY BEFORE SEAS DROP BACK DOWN TO AROUND 8 FT TONIGHT.

SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING THE CHANGE TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM FRONT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AND COULD BRING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY. WILL
MORE LIKELY SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS COME UP TO 20 TO 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
WATERS. WILL SEE SEAS BUILDING BACK ABOVE 10 FT LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
-MCCOY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR SOUTH WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM PST
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 081638
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
838 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE STRENGTHENING
INVERSION. BELOW THE INVERSION WE WILL SEE DEVELOPING FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  PATCHY FOG MAY
RESULT ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEY.  RIGHT NOW ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS WE SHOULD BE TO A POINT WHERE THE SUN ANGLE IS
GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO BURN OFF ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS.  BUT WE WILL
STILL MONITOR CERTAIN AREAS TO MAKE SURE PERSISTENT FOG DOES NOT
CONTINUE.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN OR/ID
BORDER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 15
TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER
THAN SUNDAY...AND IF THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS
QUICKER...TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
EITHER WAY TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH
EXCEPTION OF ANY AREAS THAT START OUT A BIT FOGGY.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES +/- OF THE PREVIOUS DAY.

MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE MUCH OTHER THAN POSSIBLE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WEBER

LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS (GFS AND NAM) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND THEY ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN AT PASS LEVELS AND
LOWER IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ONLY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
(ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON) WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND...WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE INCREASED
POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE
WITH MORE FREQUENT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO BRING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN THEY BEGIN TO DROP TO ABOUT 3500 FEET NORTHWEST CWA
AND 6000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPING ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS (ABOVE
PASS LEVELS) THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 88

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT TAF SITES
KDLS...KPSC...KYKM AND KALW WHERE THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS FROM 12Z-18Z THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN FROM 06Z-12Z TONIGHT (TUESDAY MORNING). WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  31  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  31  50  36 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  50  30  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  51  30  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  50  30  48  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  42  23  45  30 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  61  39  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  50  29  48  36 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  55  32  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  55  31  53  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/97/97




000
FXUS66 KPDT 081626
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
826 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEDOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK PROVIDING
DRYCONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ANDPOSSIBLE NEAR RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE
STRENGTHENINGINVERSION. BELOW THE INVERSION WE WILL SEE DEVELOPING
FOG AND LOWCLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  PATCHY FOG MAY
RESULT ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEY.  RIGHT NOW ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS WE SHOULD BE TO A POINT WHERE THE SUN ANGLE IS
GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO BURN OFF ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS.  BUT WE WILL
STILL MONITOR CERTAIN AREAS TO MAKE SURE PERSISTENT FOG DOES NOT
CONTINUE.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN OR/ID
BORDER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 15
TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER
THAN SUNDAY...AND IF THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS
QUICKER...TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
EITHER WAY TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH
EXCEPTION OF ANY AREAS THAT START OUT A BIT FOGGY.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES +/- OF THE PREVIOUS DAY.

MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE MUCH OTHER THAN POSSIBLE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WEBER

LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS (GFS AND NAM) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND THEY ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN AT PASS LEVELS AND
LOWER IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ONLY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
(ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON) WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND...WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE INCREASED
POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE
WITH MORE FREQUENT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO BRING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN THEY BEGIN TO DROP TO ABOUT 3500 FEET NORTHWEST CWA
AND 6000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPING ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS (ABOVE
PASS LEVELS) THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 88

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT TAF SITES
KDLS...KPSC...KYKM AND KALW WHERE THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS FROM 12Z-18Z THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN FROM 06Z-12Z TONIGHT (TUESDAY MORNING). WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  31  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  31  50  36 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  50  30  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  51  30  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  50  30  48  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  42  23  45  30 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  61  39  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  50  29  48  36 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  55  32  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  55  31  53  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/97/97



000
FXUS66 KPDT 081626
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
826 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEDOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK PROVIDING
DRYCONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ANDPOSSIBLE NEAR RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE
STRENGTHENINGINVERSION. BELOW THE INVERSION WE WILL SEE DEVELOPING
FOG AND LOWCLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  PATCHY FOG MAY
RESULT ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEY.  RIGHT NOW ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS WE SHOULD BE TO A POINT WHERE THE SUN ANGLE IS
GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO BURN OFF ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS.  BUT WE WILL
STILL MONITOR CERTAIN AREAS TO MAKE SURE PERSISTENT FOG DOES NOT
CONTINUE.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN OR/ID
BORDER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 15
TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER
THAN SUNDAY...AND IF THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS
QUICKER...TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
EITHER WAY TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH
EXCEPTION OF ANY AREAS THAT START OUT A BIT FOGGY.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES +/- OF THE PREVIOUS DAY.

MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE MUCH OTHER THAN POSSIBLE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WEBER

LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS (GFS AND NAM) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND THEY ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN AT PASS LEVELS AND
LOWER IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ONLY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
(ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON) WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND...WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE INCREASED
POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE
WITH MORE FREQUENT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO BRING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN THEY BEGIN TO DROP TO ABOUT 3500 FEET NORTHWEST CWA
AND 6000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPING ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS (ABOVE
PASS LEVELS) THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 88

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT TAF SITES
KDLS...KPSC...KYKM AND KALW WHERE THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS FROM 12Z-18Z THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN FROM 06Z-12Z TONIGHT (TUESDAY MORNING). WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  31  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  31  50  36 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  50  30  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  51  30  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  50  30  48  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  42  23  45  30 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  61  39  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  50  29  48  36 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  55  32  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  55  31  53  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/97/97




000
FXUS66 KPDT 081626
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
826 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEDOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK PROVIDING
DRYCONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ANDPOSSIBLE NEAR RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE
STRENGTHENINGINVERSION. BELOW THE INVERSION WE WILL SEE DEVELOPING
FOG AND LOWCLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  PATCHY FOG MAY
RESULT ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEY.  RIGHT NOW ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS WE SHOULD BE TO A POINT WHERE THE SUN ANGLE IS
GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO BURN OFF ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS.  BUT WE WILL
STILL MONITOR CERTAIN AREAS TO MAKE SURE PERSISTENT FOG DOES NOT
CONTINUE.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN OR/ID
BORDER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 15
TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER
THAN SUNDAY...AND IF THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS
QUICKER...TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
EITHER WAY TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH
EXCEPTION OF ANY AREAS THAT START OUT A BIT FOGGY.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES +/- OF THE PREVIOUS DAY.

MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE MUCH OTHER THAN POSSIBLE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WEBER

LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS (GFS AND NAM) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND THEY ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN AT PASS LEVELS AND
LOWER IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ONLY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
(ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON) WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND...WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE INCREASED
POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE
WITH MORE FREQUENT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO BRING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN THEY BEGIN TO DROP TO ABOUT 3500 FEET NORTHWEST CWA
AND 6000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPING ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS (ABOVE
PASS LEVELS) THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 88

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT TAF SITES
KDLS...KPSC...KYKM AND KALW WHERE THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS FROM 12Z-18Z THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN FROM 06Z-12Z TONIGHT (TUESDAY MORNING). WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  31  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  31  50  36 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  50  30  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  51  30  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  50  30  48  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  42  23  45  30 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  61  39  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  50  29  48  36 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  55  32  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  55  31  53  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/97/97




000
FXUS65 KBOI 081623
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
923 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE...WEBCAMS AND SFC OBS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS FOG EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH TWIN FALLS TOWARDS GLENNS FERRY AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE CAMAS PRAIRIE. THIS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
NOON THEN START TO DIMINISH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE BOISE AREA
DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY IN THAT THE LOWER AIRMASS IS NOT
SATURATED LIKE IT WAS INDICATING YESTERDAY...SO BASED ON THAT AND
FULL SUN THIS MORNING...DONT EXPECT IT TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER
TREASURE VALLEY. RIDGE CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND WARMER AIR STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AROUND 700MB KEEP INVERSION IN PLACE. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THIS TREND...SO NO CHANGES EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF THE
ST/FOG...TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXPECT AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
NIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE
KBNO...KBKE AND KMYL AREAS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
MIXING TO DISSIPATE THE FOG AND STRATUS BY 21Z...BUT WILL REDEVELOP
AGAIN IN THE EVENING. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT NORTHWEST 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...
INVERSION TO CONTINUE TO STREGTHEN AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AT 700MB. TRANSPORT WINDS REMAINING LIGHT
EASTERLY AT THE SFC AT UNDER 10 MPH THEN SHIFTING LIGHT NORTHERLY
5-10KFT. MIXING HGTS EXPECTED AROUND 1000-1500 FT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE STILL BUILDING...AND STRENGTHENING THE
INVERSION.  SEVERAL WX DIFFERENCES FROM LAST NIGHT AT 09Z.  AN AREA
OF FOG/STRATUS HAS FORMED IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SLOWLY EXPANDING
WEST.  FAIRFIELD/ID IS MUCH COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT...NEAR ZERO THIS
MORNING VS MID 20S LAST NIGHT WHEN WINDS WERE NEAR 15 MPH.  WINDS
HAVE BECOME NE AT JEROME/ID DRAINING FROM THE COLD CAMAS PRAIRIE.
WITH MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO FORECAST NE WIND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF COLD TEMPS IN THE CAMAS PRAIRIE THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS FOR THE FOG/STRATUS...WE SEE THAT NAM AND NAMBC ARE THE ONLY
MODELS THAT KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN THROUGHOUT THE SNAKE BASIN TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THAT SUGGESTS COLD FOGGY AIR WILL SPREAD OVER NEARLY ALL OF
THE LOWER SNAKE BASIN.  BUT THOSE TWO MODELS ALSO SHOW IDAHO CITY
COLDER THAN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY TODAY WHICH IS PROBABLY
INCORRECT.  NO OTHER MODELS DO THIS.  YESTERDAY IDAHO CITY HAD A
HIGH OF 52 VS ONLY UPPER 40S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...AND SIMILAR
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. NO PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.  LIGHT EAST WINDS
TODAY AND TUESDAY...EXCEPT MODERATE NE NEAR JEROME/ID.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DID
ADJUST TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS MODEL
SOUNDING ARE SHOWING THE STRATUS DECK BREAKING UP. INCREASING EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL ALSO LIMIT FOG/STRATUS
COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EXCEPT IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE INVERSION WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY BUT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 00Z GFS DOESN/T EVEN HAVE THE
TROUGH MAKING IT THAT FAR INLAND. 00Z ECMWF DOES BRING IN THE THOUGH
THOUGH BUT WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINNING SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...CR
AVIATION.....JA
AIR STAGNATION...CR
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS




000
FXUS66 KPDT 081621
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
821 AM PST YON HEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD HIGHS ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE STRENGTHENING
INVERSION. BELOW THE INVERSION WE WILL SEE DEVELOPING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  PATCHY FOG MAY
RESULT ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEY.  RIGHT NOW ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS WE SHOULD BE TO A POINT WHERE THE SUN ANGLE IS
GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO BURN OFF ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS.  BUT WE WILL
STILL MONITOR CERTAIN AREAS TO MAKE SURE PERSISTENT FOG DOES NOT
CONTINUE.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN OR/ID
BORDER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 15
TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER
THAN SUNDAY...AND IF THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS
QUICKER...TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
EITHER WAY TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH
EXCEPTION OF ANY AREAS THAT START OUT A BIT FOGGY.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES +/- OF THE PREVIOUS DAY.

MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE MUCH OTHER THAN POSSIBLE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WEBER

LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS (GFS AND NAM) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND THEY ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN AT PASS LEVELS AND
LOWER IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ONLY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
(ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON) WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND...WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE INCREASED
POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE
WITH MORE FREQUENT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO BRING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN THEY BEGIN TO DROP TO ABOUT 3500 FEET NORTHWEST CWA
AND 6000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPING ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS (ABOVE
PASS LEVELS) THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 88

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT TAF SITES
KDLS...KPSC...KYKM AND KALW WHERE THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS FROM 12Z-18Z THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN FROM 06Z-12Z TONIGHT (TUESDAY MORNING). WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  31  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  31  50  36 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  50  30  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  51  30  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  50  30  48  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  42  23  45  30 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  61  39  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  50  29  48  36 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  55  32  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  55  31  53  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/97/97




000
FXUS66 KMFR 081154
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
355 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...08/00Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.

THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A FIVE WAVE
PATTERN AROUND THE GLOBE WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDES. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE BUT LONGITUDINAL FLOW WILL INCREASE...CREATING A
MORE BLOCKY PATTERN AROUND THE GLOBE. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...BUT WILL SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST...AMPLIFYING THROUGH TODAY.
IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE MEDFORD CWA LATER THIS MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND OVER THE RIDGES. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...WHERE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN
INVERSIONS...WHICH WILL ALLOW NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS. SINCE THIS IS LATE IN THE
SEASON FOR SUCH PATTERNS...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

USUALLY AIR STAGNATION IS A CONCERN IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...BUT
GIVEN THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON MIXING...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...AND WEAK SHORT WAVES
EJECTING FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. TYPICALLY THE FIRST SHORT WAVE AFTER A RIDGE HAS
LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN HERALDING THE END OF OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...AND THESE LOOK TOO WEAK TO DO MUCH OF ANYTHING. THE SHORT
WAVES THAT FOLLOW WILL ALSO BE WEAK AND MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE 08/00Z GFS SOLUTION
LIMITS PRECIPITATION TO THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST.
MEANWHILE THE 08/00Z EC SOLUTION KEEPS IT DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT THEN PUSHES A WETTER COLD FRONT ONSHORE FRIDAY MORNING.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS TEND TO BREAK DOWN A STRONG RIDGE TOO
QUICKLY...AND KEEP PUSHING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BACK WITH
EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THAT APPEARS TO BE THE CASE HERE...BUT THE
DRY EVENT HAS TO END AT SOME POINT. SO...WILL BRING SOME CHANCE
POPS ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 08/12Z TAF CYCLE...IN DOUGLAS COUNTY
LIFRCONDITIONS WILL LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR CONTINUES
UNDERCLEAR SKY. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY ANDMOSTLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. AT KMFR
EXPECTCONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FORPATCHY FOG AROUND 15Z MONDAY BUT GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
CONTINUED VFR SOHAVE KEPT FOG OUT OF KMFR TAF FOR NOW. /SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 350 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016...A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGHALONG THE COAST IS BRINGING LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LIGHT EAST
TONORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
THISEVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS BEYOND 130W. STEEP SEAS
DOMINATED BYA LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS
MONDAY AS A LONGPERIOD WEST SWELL OF AROUND 10 FEET AT 16 SECONDS
BUILDS INTO THEWATERS.

A FRONT MAY NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE INTO
THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
VARIABILITY WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
THOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON DETAILS FOR WAVE AND
WIND FORECASTS DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SEAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STEEP SEAS
DURING THIS PERIOD AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS. ANOTHER STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. /SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/04




000
FXUS66 KMFR 081154
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
355 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...08/00Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.

THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A FIVE WAVE
PATTERN AROUND THE GLOBE WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDES. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE BUT LONGITUDINAL FLOW WILL INCREASE...CREATING A
MORE BLOCKY PATTERN AROUND THE GLOBE. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...BUT WILL SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST...AMPLIFYING THROUGH TODAY.
IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE MEDFORD CWA LATER THIS MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND OVER THE RIDGES. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...WHERE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN
INVERSIONS...WHICH WILL ALLOW NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS. SINCE THIS IS LATE IN THE
SEASON FOR SUCH PATTERNS...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

USUALLY AIR STAGNATION IS A CONCERN IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...BUT
GIVEN THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON MIXING...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...AND WEAK SHORT WAVES
EJECTING FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. TYPICALLY THE FIRST SHORT WAVE AFTER A RIDGE HAS
LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN HERALDING THE END OF OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...AND THESE LOOK TOO WEAK TO DO MUCH OF ANYTHING. THE SHORT
WAVES THAT FOLLOW WILL ALSO BE WEAK AND MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE 08/00Z GFS SOLUTION
LIMITS PRECIPITATION TO THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST.
MEANWHILE THE 08/00Z EC SOLUTION KEEPS IT DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT THEN PUSHES A WETTER COLD FRONT ONSHORE FRIDAY MORNING.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS TEND TO BREAK DOWN A STRONG RIDGE TOO
QUICKLY...AND KEEP PUSHING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BACK WITH
EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THAT APPEARS TO BE THE CASE HERE...BUT THE
DRY EVENT HAS TO END AT SOME POINT. SO...WILL BRING SOME CHANCE
POPS ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 08/12Z TAF CYCLE...IN DOUGLAS COUNTY
LIFRCONDITIONS WILL LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR CONTINUES
UNDERCLEAR SKY. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY ANDMOSTLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. AT KMFR
EXPECTCONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FORPATCHY FOG AROUND 15Z MONDAY BUT GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
CONTINUED VFR SOHAVE KEPT FOG OUT OF KMFR TAF FOR NOW. /SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 350 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016...A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGHALONG THE COAST IS BRINGING LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LIGHT EAST
TONORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
THISEVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS BEYOND 130W. STEEP SEAS
DOMINATED BYA LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS
MONDAY AS A LONGPERIOD WEST SWELL OF AROUND 10 FEET AT 16 SECONDS
BUILDS INTO THEWATERS.

A FRONT MAY NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE INTO
THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
VARIABILITY WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
THOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON DETAILS FOR WAVE AND
WIND FORECASTS DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SEAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STEEP SEAS
DURING THIS PERIOD AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS. ANOTHER STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. /SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/04



000
FXUS66 KPQR 081047
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 AM PST MON FEB  8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES OVER REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY MILD DAYS THOUGH
WILL HAVE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/AM FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER WED...BUT NOT MUCH IN WAY OF
RAIN. OTHER FRONTS ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN TO CLOSE THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES WILL SIT OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS. WITH THERMAL LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
BUT SINCE THIS IS A MOSTLY GAP DRIVEN WIND EVENT...THE BREEZY WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...AND SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE COASTAL MTNS INTO THE COASTAL LOWLANDS. AT 2
AM...CROSS GORGE GRADIENT RUNNING NEAR 7 MB OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN A BIT MORE TODAY...HOLDING AT 7 TO 8 MB THROUGH TUE.  SO...
CAN EXPECT GUSTS AROUND TROUTDALE OF 35 TO 45 MPH. FURTHER INTO THE
WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE...WINDS WILL GUST 45 TO 60 MPH.

AIR MASS ALOFT IS RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WILL LIKELY
SEE MANY LOCATIONS REACHING THE 60S AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND THROUGH THE INLAND VALLEYS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE COAST REACH AROUND 70 DEG TODAY.
CHALLENGE IS FOR THE INLAND AREAS. WITH THE GAP DRIVEN WINDS KEEPING
BULK OF PORTLAND/VANCOUVER AREA IN THE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BUT...AREAS TO S/W OF
PORTLAND AND N OF VANCOUVER WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS
AM. AT 2 AM...FOG STILL AFFECTING SCAPPOOSE AND HILLSBORO...AND TO
SOUTH OF SALEM. WHILE NOT ALL THAT DEEP... LOCAL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF LATER THIS AM...WITH THE  SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY CLEARING LAST...SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. AS A
RESULT... TEMPERATURES WILL BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
50 TO 55 FOR AREAS S OF SALEM...AND MAYBE IN COWLITZ VALLEY.

EAST WINDS RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
EAST AND THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING TO KNOCK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
REACHES OR APPROACHES THE COAST. WE SHOULD STILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF
MORNING FOG INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS THIS FIRST SYSTEM WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ACTIVE AND
MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR LATE THIS WEEK. COAST
MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE. THE FRONT IS FINALLY PUSHED
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. RAIN TURNS TO SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STARTS TO TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY COULD BE MOSTLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE RAIN
ON SUNDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THIS MEANS VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR
LIFR IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. DO NOT EXPECT THIS AREA
TO IMPROVE MUCH UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO CHANCE OF
PATCHY IFR IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS NORTH OF KCVO THROUGH ABOUT
18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY IFR AROUND THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. EAST WIND GUSTING TO 35 KT AT THE
WEST END OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 KT POSSIBLE BY 00Z TUE. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LIKELY NEAR COASTAL TERRAIN GAPS. A WARM FRONT
MAY BRING SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT TUE. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS WED AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

SEAS RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A WESTERLY LONG PERIOD
SWELL IS BEGINNING TO BUILD IN AND HAS SHOWN UP AT BUOY 89. SEAS WILL
BE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE...BEFORE DROPPING BELOW
10 FT AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. PYLE
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 081047
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 AM PST MON FEB  8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES OVER REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY MILD DAYS THOUGH
WILL HAVE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/AM FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER WED...BUT NOT MUCH IN WAY OF
RAIN. OTHER FRONTS ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN TO CLOSE THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES WILL SIT OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS. WITH THERMAL LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
BUT SINCE THIS IS A MOSTLY GAP DRIVEN WIND EVENT...THE BREEZY WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...AND SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE COASTAL MTNS INTO THE COASTAL LOWLANDS. AT 2
AM...CROSS GORGE GRADIENT RUNNING NEAR 7 MB OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN A BIT MORE TODAY...HOLDING AT 7 TO 8 MB THROUGH TUE.  SO...
CAN EXPECT GUSTS AROUND TROUTDALE OF 35 TO 45 MPH. FURTHER INTO THE
WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE...WINDS WILL GUST 45 TO 60 MPH.

AIR MASS ALOFT IS RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WILL LIKELY
SEE MANY LOCATIONS REACHING THE 60S AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND THROUGH THE INLAND VALLEYS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE COAST REACH AROUND 70 DEG TODAY.
CHALLENGE IS FOR THE INLAND AREAS. WITH THE GAP DRIVEN WINDS KEEPING
BULK OF PORTLAND/VANCOUVER AREA IN THE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BUT...AREAS TO S/W OF
PORTLAND AND N OF VANCOUVER WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS
AM. AT 2 AM...FOG STILL AFFECTING SCAPPOOSE AND HILLSBORO...AND TO
SOUTH OF SALEM. WHILE NOT ALL THAT DEEP... LOCAL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF LATER THIS AM...WITH THE  SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY CLEARING LAST...SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. AS A
RESULT... TEMPERATURES WILL BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
50 TO 55 FOR AREAS S OF SALEM...AND MAYBE IN COWLITZ VALLEY.

EAST WINDS RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
EAST AND THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING TO KNOCK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
REACHES OR APPROACHES THE COAST. WE SHOULD STILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF
MORNING FOG INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS THIS FIRST SYSTEM WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ACTIVE AND
MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR LATE THIS WEEK. COAST
MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE. THE FRONT IS FINALLY PUSHED
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. RAIN TURNS TO SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STARTS TO TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY COULD BE MOSTLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE RAIN
ON SUNDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THIS MEANS VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR
LIFR IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. DO NOT EXPECT THIS AREA
TO IMPROVE MUCH UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO CHANCE OF
PATCHY IFR IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS NORTH OF KCVO THROUGH ABOUT
18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY IFR AROUND THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. EAST WIND GUSTING TO 35 KT AT THE
WEST END OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 KT POSSIBLE BY 00Z TUE. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LIKELY NEAR COASTAL TERRAIN GAPS. A WARM FRONT
MAY BRING SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT TUE. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS WED AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

SEAS RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A WESTERLY LONG PERIOD
SWELL IS BEGINNING TO BUILD IN AND HAS SHOWN UP AT BUOY 89. SEAS WILL
BE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE...BEFORE DROPPING BELOW
10 FT AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. PYLE
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 081047
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 AM PST MON FEB  8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES OVER REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY MILD DAYS THOUGH
WILL HAVE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/AM FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER WED...BUT NOT MUCH IN WAY OF
RAIN. OTHER FRONTS ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN TO CLOSE THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES WILL SIT OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS. WITH THERMAL LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
BUT SINCE THIS IS A MOSTLY GAP DRIVEN WIND EVENT...THE BREEZY WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...AND SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE COASTAL MTNS INTO THE COASTAL LOWLANDS. AT 2
AM...CROSS GORGE GRADIENT RUNNING NEAR 7 MB OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN A BIT MORE TODAY...HOLDING AT 7 TO 8 MB THROUGH TUE.  SO...
CAN EXPECT GUSTS AROUND TROUTDALE OF 35 TO 45 MPH. FURTHER INTO THE
WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE...WINDS WILL GUST 45 TO 60 MPH.

AIR MASS ALOFT IS RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WILL LIKELY
SEE MANY LOCATIONS REACHING THE 60S AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND THROUGH THE INLAND VALLEYS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE COAST REACH AROUND 70 DEG TODAY.
CHALLENGE IS FOR THE INLAND AREAS. WITH THE GAP DRIVEN WINDS KEEPING
BULK OF PORTLAND/VANCOUVER AREA IN THE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BUT...AREAS TO S/W OF
PORTLAND AND N OF VANCOUVER WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS
AM. AT 2 AM...FOG STILL AFFECTING SCAPPOOSE AND HILLSBORO...AND TO
SOUTH OF SALEM. WHILE NOT ALL THAT DEEP... LOCAL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF LATER THIS AM...WITH THE  SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY CLEARING LAST...SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. AS A
RESULT... TEMPERATURES WILL BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
50 TO 55 FOR AREAS S OF SALEM...AND MAYBE IN COWLITZ VALLEY.

EAST WINDS RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
EAST AND THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING TO KNOCK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
REACHES OR APPROACHES THE COAST. WE SHOULD STILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF
MORNING FOG INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS THIS FIRST SYSTEM WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ACTIVE AND
MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR LATE THIS WEEK. COAST
MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE. THE FRONT IS FINALLY PUSHED
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. RAIN TURNS TO SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STARTS TO TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY COULD BE MOSTLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE RAIN
ON SUNDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THIS MEANS VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR
LIFR IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. DO NOT EXPECT THIS AREA
TO IMPROVE MUCH UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO CHANCE OF
PATCHY IFR IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS NORTH OF KCVO THROUGH ABOUT
18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY IFR AROUND THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. EAST WIND GUSTING TO 35 KT AT THE
WEST END OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 KT POSSIBLE BY 00Z TUE. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LIKELY NEAR COASTAL TERRAIN GAPS. A WARM FRONT
MAY BRING SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT TUE. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS WED AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

SEAS RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A WESTERLY LONG PERIOD
SWELL IS BEGINNING TO BUILD IN AND HAS SHOWN UP AT BUOY 89. SEAS WILL
BE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE...BEFORE DROPPING BELOW
10 FT AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. PYLE
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 081047
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 AM PST MON FEB  8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES OVER REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY MILD DAYS THOUGH
WILL HAVE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/AM FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER WED...BUT NOT MUCH IN WAY OF
RAIN. OTHER FRONTS ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN TO CLOSE THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES WILL SIT OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS. WITH THERMAL LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
BUT SINCE THIS IS A MOSTLY GAP DRIVEN WIND EVENT...THE BREEZY WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...AND SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE COASTAL MTNS INTO THE COASTAL LOWLANDS. AT 2
AM...CROSS GORGE GRADIENT RUNNING NEAR 7 MB OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN A BIT MORE TODAY...HOLDING AT 7 TO 8 MB THROUGH TUE.  SO...
CAN EXPECT GUSTS AROUND TROUTDALE OF 35 TO 45 MPH. FURTHER INTO THE
WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE...WINDS WILL GUST 45 TO 60 MPH.

AIR MASS ALOFT IS RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WILL LIKELY
SEE MANY LOCATIONS REACHING THE 60S AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND THROUGH THE INLAND VALLEYS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE COAST REACH AROUND 70 DEG TODAY.
CHALLENGE IS FOR THE INLAND AREAS. WITH THE GAP DRIVEN WINDS KEEPING
BULK OF PORTLAND/VANCOUVER AREA IN THE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BUT...AREAS TO S/W OF
PORTLAND AND N OF VANCOUVER WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS
AM. AT 2 AM...FOG STILL AFFECTING SCAPPOOSE AND HILLSBORO...AND TO
SOUTH OF SALEM. WHILE NOT ALL THAT DEEP... LOCAL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF LATER THIS AM...WITH THE  SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY CLEARING LAST...SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. AS A
RESULT... TEMPERATURES WILL BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
50 TO 55 FOR AREAS S OF SALEM...AND MAYBE IN COWLITZ VALLEY.

EAST WINDS RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
EAST AND THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING TO KNOCK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
REACHES OR APPROACHES THE COAST. WE SHOULD STILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF
MORNING FOG INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS THIS FIRST SYSTEM WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ACTIVE AND
MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR LATE THIS WEEK. COAST
MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE. THE FRONT IS FINALLY PUSHED
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. RAIN TURNS TO SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STARTS TO TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY COULD BE MOSTLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE RAIN
ON SUNDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THIS MEANS VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR
LIFR IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. DO NOT EXPECT THIS AREA
TO IMPROVE MUCH UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO CHANCE OF
PATCHY IFR IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS NORTH OF KCVO THROUGH ABOUT
18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY IFR AROUND THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. EAST WIND GUSTING TO 35 KT AT THE
WEST END OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 KT POSSIBLE BY 00Z TUE. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LIKELY NEAR COASTAL TERRAIN GAPS. A WARM FRONT
MAY BRING SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT TUE. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS WED AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

SEAS RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A WESTERLY LONG PERIOD
SWELL IS BEGINNING TO BUILD IN AND HAS SHOWN UP AT BUOY 89. SEAS WILL
BE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE...BEFORE DROPPING BELOW
10 FT AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. PYLE
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 081047
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 AM PST MON FEB  8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES OVER REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY MILD DAYS THOUGH
WILL HAVE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/AM FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER WED...BUT NOT MUCH IN WAY OF
RAIN. OTHER FRONTS ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN TO CLOSE THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES WILL SIT OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS. WITH THERMAL LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
BUT SINCE THIS IS A MOSTLY GAP DRIVEN WIND EVENT...THE BREEZY WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...AND SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE COASTAL MTNS INTO THE COASTAL LOWLANDS. AT 2
AM...CROSS GORGE GRADIENT RUNNING NEAR 7 MB OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN A BIT MORE TODAY...HOLDING AT 7 TO 8 MB THROUGH TUE.  SO...
CAN EXPECT GUSTS AROUND TROUTDALE OF 35 TO 45 MPH. FURTHER INTO THE
WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE...WINDS WILL GUST 45 TO 60 MPH.

AIR MASS ALOFT IS RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WILL LIKELY
SEE MANY LOCATIONS REACHING THE 60S AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND THROUGH THE INLAND VALLEYS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE COAST REACH AROUND 70 DEG TODAY.
CHALLENGE IS FOR THE INLAND AREAS. WITH THE GAP DRIVEN WINDS KEEPING
BULK OF PORTLAND/VANCOUVER AREA IN THE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BUT...AREAS TO S/W OF
PORTLAND AND N OF VANCOUVER WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS
AM. AT 2 AM...FOG STILL AFFECTING SCAPPOOSE AND HILLSBORO...AND TO
SOUTH OF SALEM. WHILE NOT ALL THAT DEEP... LOCAL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF LATER THIS AM...WITH THE  SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY CLEARING LAST...SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. AS A
RESULT... TEMPERATURES WILL BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
50 TO 55 FOR AREAS S OF SALEM...AND MAYBE IN COWLITZ VALLEY.

EAST WINDS RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
EAST AND THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING TO KNOCK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
REACHES OR APPROACHES THE COAST. WE SHOULD STILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF
MORNING FOG INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS THIS FIRST SYSTEM WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ACTIVE AND
MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR LATE THIS WEEK. COAST
MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE. THE FRONT IS FINALLY PUSHED
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. RAIN TURNS TO SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STARTS TO TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY COULD BE MOSTLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE RAIN
ON SUNDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THIS MEANS VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR
LIFR IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. DO NOT EXPECT THIS AREA
TO IMPROVE MUCH UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO CHANCE OF
PATCHY IFR IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS NORTH OF KCVO THROUGH ABOUT
18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY IFR AROUND THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. EAST WIND GUSTING TO 35 KT AT THE
WEST END OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 KT POSSIBLE BY 00Z TUE. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LIKELY NEAR COASTAL TERRAIN GAPS. A WARM FRONT
MAY BRING SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT TUE. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS WED AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

SEAS RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A WESTERLY LONG PERIOD
SWELL IS BEGINNING TO BUILD IN AND HAS SHOWN UP AT BUOY 89. SEAS WILL
BE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE...BEFORE DROPPING BELOW
10 FT AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. PYLE
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 081046
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 AM PST MON FEB  8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES OVER REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY MILD DAYS THOUGH
WILL HAVE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/AM FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER WED...BUT NOT MUCH IN WAY OF
RAIN. OTHER FRONTS ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN TO CLOSE THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES WILL SIT OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS. WITH THERMAL LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER
PRES EAST OF THE CASCADES...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
BUT SINCE THIS IS A MOSTLY GAP DRIVEN WIND EVENT...THE BREEZY WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...AND SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE COASTAL MTNS INTO THE COASTAL LOWLANDS. AT 2
AM...CROSS GORGE GRADIENT RUNNING NEAR 7 MB OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN A BIT MORE TODAY...HOLDING AT 7 TO 8 MB  THROUGH TUE.

AIR MASS ALOFT IS RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WILL LIKELY
SEE MANY LOCATIONS REACHING THE 60S AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND THROUGH THE INLAND VALLEYS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE COAST REACH AROUND 70 DEG TODAY.
CHALLENGE IS FOR THE INLAND AREAS. WITH THE GAP DRIVEN WINDS KEEPING
BULK OF PORTLAND/VANCOUVER AREA IN THE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BUT...AREAS TO S/W OF
PORTLAND AND N OF VANCOUVER WILL SEE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS
AM. AT 2 AM...FOG STILL AFFECTING SCAPPOOSE AND HILLSBORO...AND TO
SOUTH OF SALEM. WHILE NOT ALL THAT DEEP... LOCAL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF LATER THIS AM...WITH THE  SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY CLEARING LAST...SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. AS A
RESULT... TEMPERATURES WILL BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
50 TO 55 FOR AREAS S OF SALEM...AND MAYBE IN COWLITZ VALLEY.

EAST WINDS RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
EAST AND THE FIRST SYSTEM TRYING TO KNOCK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
REACHES OR APPROACHES THE COAST. WE SHOULD STILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF
MORNING FOG INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS THIS FIRST SYSTEM WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ACTIVE AND
MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR LATE THIS WEEK. COAST
MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE. THE FRONT IS FINALLY PUSHED
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. RAIN TURNS TO SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STARTS TO TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY COULD BE MOSTLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE RAIN
ON SUNDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THIS MEANS VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR
LIFR IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. DO NOT EXPECT THIS AREA
TO IMPROVE MUCH UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO CHANCE OF
PATCHY IFR IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS NORTH OF KCVO THROUGH ABOUT
18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY IFR AROUND THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. EAST WIND GUSTING TO 35 KT AT THE
WEST END OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 KT POSSIBLE BY 00Z TUE. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LIKELY NEAR COASTAL TERRAIN GAPS. A WARM FRONT
MAY BRING SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT TUE. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS WED AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

SEAS RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A WESTERLY LONG PERIOD
SWELL IS BEGINNING TO BUILD IN AND HAS SHOWN UP AT BUOY 89. SEAS WILL
BE PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE...BEFORE DROPPING BELOW
10 FT AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. PYLE
&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 081040
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
240 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  PATCHY FOG MAY
RESULT ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEY.  RIGHT NOW ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS WE SHOULD BE TO A POINT WHERE THE SUN ANGLE IS
GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO BURN OFF ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS.  BUT WE WILL
STILL MONITOR CERTAIN AREAS TO MAKE SURE PERSISTENT FOG DOES NOT
CONTINUE.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN OR/ID
BORDER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 15
TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER
THAN SUNDAY...AND IF THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS
QUICKER...TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
EITHER WAY TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH
EXCEPTION OF ANY AREAS THAT START OUT A BIT FOGGY.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES +/- OF THE PREVIOUS DAY.

MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE MUCH OTHER THAN POSSIBLE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WEBER

.LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS (GFS AND NAM) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND THEY ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN AT PASS LEVELS AND
LOWER IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ONLY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
(ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON) WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND...WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE INCREASED
POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE
WITH MORE FREQUENT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO BRING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN THEY BEGIN TO DROP TO ABOUT 3500 FEET NORTHWEST CWA
AND 6000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPING ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS (ABOVE
PASS LEVELS) THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 88

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT TAF SITES
KDLS...KPSC...KYKM AND KALW WHERE THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS FROM 12Z-18Z THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN FROM 06Z-12Z TONIGHT (TUESDAY MORNING). WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  33  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  35  50  36 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  49  33  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  49  31  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  49  33  48  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  43  29  45  30 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  57  33  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  50  34  48  36 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  54  31  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  55  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/88/88




000
FXUS66 KPDT 081040
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
240 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  PATCHY FOG MAY
RESULT ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEY.  RIGHT NOW ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS WE SHOULD BE TO A POINT WHERE THE SUN ANGLE IS
GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO BURN OFF ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS.  BUT WE WILL
STILL MONITOR CERTAIN AREAS TO MAKE SURE PERSISTENT FOG DOES NOT
CONTINUE.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN OR/ID
BORDER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 15
TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER
THAN SUNDAY...AND IF THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS
QUICKER...TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
EITHER WAY TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH
EXCEPTION OF ANY AREAS THAT START OUT A BIT FOGGY.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES +/- OF THE PREVIOUS DAY.

MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE MUCH OTHER THAN POSSIBLE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WEBER

.LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS (GFS AND NAM) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND THEY ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN AT PASS LEVELS AND
LOWER IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ONLY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
(ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON) WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND...WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE INCREASED
POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE
WITH MORE FREQUENT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO BRING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN THEY BEGIN TO DROP TO ABOUT 3500 FEET NORTHWEST CWA
AND 6000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPING ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS (ABOVE
PASS LEVELS) THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 88

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT TAF SITES
KDLS...KPSC...KYKM AND KALW WHERE THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS FROM 12Z-18Z THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN FROM 06Z-12Z TONIGHT (TUESDAY MORNING). WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  33  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  35  50  36 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  49  33  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  49  31  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  49  33  48  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  43  29  45  30 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  57  33  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  50  34  48  36 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  54  31  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  55  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/88/88




000
FXUS66 KPDT 081040
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
240 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  PATCHY FOG MAY
RESULT ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEY.  RIGHT NOW ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS WE SHOULD BE TO A POINT WHERE THE SUN ANGLE IS
GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO BURN OFF ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS.  BUT WE WILL
STILL MONITOR CERTAIN AREAS TO MAKE SURE PERSISTENT FOG DOES NOT
CONTINUE.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN OR/ID
BORDER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 15
TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER
THAN SUNDAY...AND IF THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS
QUICKER...TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
EITHER WAY TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH
EXCEPTION OF ANY AREAS THAT START OUT A BIT FOGGY.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES +/- OF THE PREVIOUS DAY.

MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE MUCH OTHER THAN POSSIBLE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WEBER

.LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS (GFS AND NAM) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND THEY ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN AT PASS LEVELS AND
LOWER IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ONLY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
(ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON) WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND...WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE INCREASED
POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE
WITH MORE FREQUENT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO BRING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN THEY BEGIN TO DROP TO ABOUT 3500 FEET NORTHWEST CWA
AND 6000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPING ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS (ABOVE
PASS LEVELS) THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 88

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT TAF SITES
KDLS...KPSC...KYKM AND KALW WHERE THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS FROM 12Z-18Z THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN FROM 06Z-12Z TONIGHT (TUESDAY MORNING). WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  33  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  35  50  36 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  49  33  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  49  31  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  49  33  48  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  43  29  45  30 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  57  33  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  50  34  48  36 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  54  31  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  55  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/88/88




000
FXUS66 KPDT 081040
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
240 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  PATCHY FOG MAY
RESULT ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEY.  RIGHT NOW ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS WE SHOULD BE TO A POINT WHERE THE SUN ANGLE IS
GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO BURN OFF ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS.  BUT WE WILL
STILL MONITOR CERTAIN AREAS TO MAKE SURE PERSISTENT FOG DOES NOT
CONTINUE.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN OR/ID
BORDER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 15
TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER
THAN SUNDAY...AND IF THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS
QUICKER...TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
EITHER WAY TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH
EXCEPTION OF ANY AREAS THAT START OUT A BIT FOGGY.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES +/- OF THE PREVIOUS DAY.

MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE MUCH OTHER THAN POSSIBLE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WEBER

.LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS (GFS AND NAM) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND THEY ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN AT PASS LEVELS AND
LOWER IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ONLY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
(ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON) WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND...WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE INCREASED
POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE
WITH MORE FREQUENT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO BRING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN THEY BEGIN TO DROP TO ABOUT 3500 FEET NORTHWEST CWA
AND 6000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPING ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS (ABOVE
PASS LEVELS) THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 88

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT TAF SITES
KDLS...KPSC...KYKM AND KALW WHERE THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS FROM 12Z-18Z THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN FROM 06Z-12Z TONIGHT (TUESDAY MORNING). WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  33  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  35  50  36 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  49  33  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  49  31  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  49  33  48  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  43  29  45  30 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  57  33  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  50  34  48  36 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  54  31  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  55  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/88/88




000
FXUS66 KPDT 081040
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
240 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  PATCHY FOG MAY
RESULT ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEY.  RIGHT NOW ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS WE SHOULD BE TO A POINT WHERE THE SUN ANGLE IS
GETTING HIGH ENOUGH TO BURN OFF ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS.  BUT WE WILL
STILL MONITOR CERTAIN AREAS TO MAKE SURE PERSISTENT FOG DOES NOT
CONTINUE.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN OR/ID
BORDER.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 15
TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER
THAN SUNDAY...AND IF THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS
QUICKER...TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
EITHER WAY TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH
EXCEPTION OF ANY AREAS THAT START OUT A BIT FOGGY.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES +/- OF THE PREVIOUS DAY.

MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PROVIDE MUCH OTHER THAN POSSIBLE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WEBER

.LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT IS
BRINGING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS (GFS AND NAM) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND THEY ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
HIGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN AT PASS LEVELS AND
LOWER IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ONLY ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
(ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON) WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO
MOVE INLAND...WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE INCREASED
POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AFTER THAT THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE
WITH MORE FREQUENT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO BRING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN THEY BEGIN TO DROP TO ABOUT 3500 FEET NORTHWEST CWA
AND 6000 FEET IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPING ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS (ABOVE
PASS LEVELS) THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 88

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT TAF SITES
KDLS...KPSC...KYKM AND KALW WHERE THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS FROM 12Z-18Z THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN FROM 06Z-12Z TONIGHT (TUESDAY MORNING). WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  33  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  35  50  36 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  49  33  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  49  31  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  49  33  48  34 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  43  29  45  30 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  57  33  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  50  34  48  36 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  54  31  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  55  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/88/88




000
FXUS65 KBOI 080941
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE STILL BUILDING...AND STRENGTHENING THE
INVERSION.  SEVERAL WX DIFFERENCES FROM LAST NIGHT AT 09Z.  AN AREA
OF FOG/STRATUS HAS FORMED IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SLOWLY EXPANDING
WEST.  FAIRFIELD/ID IS MUCH COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT...NEAR ZERO THIS
MORNING VS MID 20S LAST NIGHT WHEN WINDS WERE NEAR 15 MPH.  WINDS
HAVE BECOME NE AT JEROME/ID DRAINING FROM THE COLD CAMAS PRAIRIE.
WITH MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO FORECAST NE WIND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF COLD TEMPS IN THE CAMAS PRAIRIE THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS FOR THE FOG/STRATUS...WE SEE THAT NAM AND NAMBC ARE THE ONLY
MODELS THAT KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN THROUGHOUT THE SNAKE BASIN TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THAT SUGGESTS COLD FOGGY AIR WILL SPREAD OVER NEARLY ALL OF
THE LOWER SNAKE BASIN.  BUT THOSE TWO MODELS ALSO SHOW IDAHO CITY
COLDER THAN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY TODAY WHICH IS PROBABLY
INCORRECT.  NO OTHER MODELS DO THIS.  YESTERDAY IDAHO CITY HAD A
HIGH OF 52 VS ONLY UPPER 40S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...AND SIMILAR
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. NO PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.  LIGHT EAST WINDS
TODAY AND TUESDAY...EXCEPT MODERATE NE NEAR JEROME/ID.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DID
ADJUST TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS MODEL
SOUNDING ARE SHOWING THE STRATUS DECK BREAKING UP. INCREASING EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL ALSO LIMIT FOG/STRATUS
COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EXCEPT IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE INVERSION WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY BUT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 00Z GFS DOESN/T EVEN HAVE THE
TROUGH MAKING IT THAT FAR INLAND. 00Z ECMWF DOES BRING IN THE THOUGH
THOUGH BUT WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINNING SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. EXPECT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS
THROUGHOUT THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE KBNO..KBKE..AND KMYL AREAS. FOG AND STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 21Z...BUT IT WILL REDEVELOP THIS EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 10-
20 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE
MIXING HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 1500 FEET AGL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EAST WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS.
WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND EAST WINDS THE EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS LATER
THIS WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS
AIR STAGNATION...LC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 080900
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
100 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...08/00Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.

THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A FIVE WAVE
PATTERN AROUND THE GLOBE WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDES. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE BUT LONGITUDINAL FLOW WILL INCREASE...CREATING A
MORE BLOCKY PATTERN AROUND THE GLOBE. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...BUT WILL SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST...AMPLIFYING THROUGH TODAY.
IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE MEDFORD CWA LATER THIS MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND OVER THE RIDGES. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...WHERE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN
INVERSIONS...WHICH WILL ALLOW NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS. SINCE THIS IS LATE IN THE
SEASON FOR SUCH PATTERNS...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

USUALLY AIR STAGNATION IS A CONCERN IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...BUT
GIVEN THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON MIXING...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...AND WEAK SHORT WAVES
EJECTING FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. TYPICALLY THE FIRST SHORT WAVE AFTER A RIDGE HAS
LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN HERALDING THE END OF OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...AND THESE LOOK TOO WEAK TO DO MUCH OF ANYTHING. THE SHORT
WAVES THAT FOLLOW WILL ALSO BE WEAK AND MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE 08/00Z GFS SOLUTION
LIMITS PRECIPITATION TO THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE COAST.
MEANWHILE THE 08/00Z EC SOLUTION KEEPS IT DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT THEN PUSHES A WETTER COLD FRONT ONSHORE FRIDAY MORNING.
TYPICALLY THE MODELS TEND TO BREAK DOWN A STRONG RIDGE TOO
QUICKLY...AND KEEP PUSHING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BACK WITH
EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THAT APPEARS TO BE THE CASE HERE...BUT THE
DRY EVENT HAS TO END AT SOME POINT. SO...WILL BRING SOME CHANCE
POPS ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 08/06Z TAF CYCLE...IN DOUGLAS COUNTY MVFR IS
WIDESPREAD FROM NW PART OF THE COUNTY WITH AREAS OF IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT IFR TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONTINUES UNDER CLEAR
SKY. PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. AT KMFR EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
VFR...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG AROUND
15Z MONDAY BUT GUIDANCE SUPPORTS CONTINUED VFR SO HAVE KEPT FOG
OUT OF KMFR TAF FOR NOW. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PST SUN FEB 7 2016...A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST IS BRINGING LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.  WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS BEYOND 130W. STEEP SEAS
DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS
MONDAY AS A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL OF AROUND 10 FEET AT 16 SECONDS
BUILDS INTO THE WATERS.

A FRONT MAY NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE INTO
THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
VARIABILITY WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
THOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON DETAILS FOR WAVE AND
WIND FORECASTS DURING THIS PERIOD. OVERALL, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SEAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STEEP SEAS
DURING THIS PERIOD AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS. ANOTHER STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/04




000
FXUS66 KPDT 080537 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
935 PM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES PLANNED. IT WILL BE
A TRANQUIL WEATHER NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND SOME OF
THE WIND-PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE BLUE MTNS AND THE OCHOCO MTNS
TONIGHT...AND THIS IS COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS. BELIEVE
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SNAKE AND COLUMBIA
RIVERS...SO KPSC MAY SEE 3-5SM BR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP NEAR KDLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT WILL ONLY KEEP A SCT DECK AROUND 1500 FEET AGL.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 130 PM PST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH WILL BEGIN TO TRAP MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SOME MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. SOME OF THIS COULD BEGIN TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOSTLY
DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BUT AS TIME GOES ON THE DISSIPATION WILL BE
LESS AND THE FOG WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT. TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WHILE BELOW NORMAL BENEATH THE
INVERSION.


LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.  ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE WILL
BE SHIFTING EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE COAST WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SPREADING EAST OF THE CASCADES.  THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW
THROUGH SATURDAY AS SNOW LEVEL LOWER TO NEAR 5500 FEET.  THE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH MID
WEEK AND THEN COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  31  51  33  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  32  52  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  29  49  33  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  29  49  31  46 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  30  49  33  46 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  26  44  29  44 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  31  59  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  30  49  34  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  29  55  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  33  54  36  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85



000
FXUS66 KPDT 080537 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
935 PM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES PLANNED. IT WILL BE
A TRANQUIL WEATHER NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND SOME OF
THE WIND-PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE BLUE MTNS AND THE OCHOCO MTNS
TONIGHT...AND THIS IS COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS. BELIEVE
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SNAKE AND COLUMBIA
RIVERS...SO KPSC MAY SEE 3-5SM BR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP NEAR KDLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT WILL ONLY KEEP A SCT DECK AROUND 1500 FEET AGL.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 130 PM PST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH WILL BEGIN TO TRAP MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SOME MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. SOME OF THIS COULD BEGIN TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOSTLY
DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BUT AS TIME GOES ON THE DISSIPATION WILL BE
LESS AND THE FOG WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT. TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WHILE BELOW NORMAL BENEATH THE
INVERSION.


LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.  ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE WILL
BE SHIFTING EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE COAST WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SPREADING EAST OF THE CASCADES.  THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW
THROUGH SATURDAY AS SNOW LEVEL LOWER TO NEAR 5500 FEET.  THE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH MID
WEEK AND THEN COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  31  51  33  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  32  52  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  29  49  33  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  29  49  31  46 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  30  49  33  46 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  26  44  29  44 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  31  59  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  30  49  34  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  29  55  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  33  54  36  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85




000
FXUS66 KPDT 080537 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
935 PM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES PLANNED. IT WILL BE
A TRANQUIL WEATHER NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND SOME OF
THE WIND-PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE BLUE MTNS AND THE OCHOCO MTNS
TONIGHT...AND THIS IS COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS. BELIEVE
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SNAKE AND COLUMBIA
RIVERS...SO KPSC MAY SEE 3-5SM BR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP NEAR KDLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT WILL ONLY KEEP A SCT DECK AROUND 1500 FEET AGL.  WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 130 PM PST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH WILL BEGIN TO TRAP MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SOME MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. SOME OF THIS COULD BEGIN TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOSTLY
DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BUT AS TIME GOES ON THE DISSIPATION WILL BE
LESS AND THE FOG WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT. TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WHILE BELOW NORMAL BENEATH THE
INVERSION.


LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.  ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE WILL
BE SHIFTING EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE COAST WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SPREADING EAST OF THE CASCADES.  THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW
THROUGH SATURDAY AS SNOW LEVEL LOWER TO NEAR 5500 FEET.  THE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH MID
WEEK AND THEN COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  31  51  33  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  32  52  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  29  49  33  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  29  49  31  46 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  30  49  33  46 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  26  44  29  44 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  31  59  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  30  49  34  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  29  55  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  33  54  36  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85




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