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000
FXUS66 KMFR 191820
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1120 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
COQUILLE...UMPQUA...AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS THIS MORNING...PROBABLY
DUE IN PART TO THE RECENT RAINS OVER THAT REGION. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY...GIVING WAY TO A WARM AND DRY DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR YET ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY.

SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING IS AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL SKIRT
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS COULD BRING A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO MODOC AND
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE WARMING AND DRYING
TREND AND SOME EAST OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT...HUMIDITIES OVER THE
WILDFIRES WILL DEFINITELY LOWER...WITH HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
REACHING THE MODERATE AND PERHAPS POOR RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON AN
UPCOMING FALL-LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVING NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
RAIN TO THE EAST SIDE...WHERE KLAMATH FALLS HAS NOT RECORDED
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN MORE THAN 30 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/18Z TAF CYCLE...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF EAST WINDS AND A
DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE RETURN OF CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMOKE FROM AREA
WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PARTICULARLY
NEAR AND WEST OF HAPPY CAMP. BTL/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM PDT FRI 19 SEP 2014...
A THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY. NORTH WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE AND WILL BUILD INTO THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN
BUMPED UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ARE NOW
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. THIS WILL CREATE STEEP TO
VERY STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH WEAKENS. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AS THEY BECOME DOMINATED
BY A BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL AT 12 SECONDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING THEN THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS BEFORE A
STRONGER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY DELIVERS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING
WESTERLY SWELL WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. BTL/DW

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS SUMMER CONTINUES TO BE ON PACE TO BE THE HOTTEST
SUMMER ON RECORD FOR MEDFORD...IN TERMS OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. IN
FACT...RIGHT NOW THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS SUMMER IS
A SIGNIFICANT 1.3 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS RECORD HOTTEST
SUMMER...WHICH IS 2013. WITH MORE HOT WEATHER APPROACHING...ITS
VERY LIKELY THAT 2014 WILL REGISTER AS THE HOTTEST SUMMER ON
RECORD FOR MEDFORD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF COOLER WEATHER, WE WILL
START WARMING UP AGAIN TODAY AS THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT OUR COOLER
WEATHER SINKS FURTHER SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - 97 IS THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
MEDFORD SATURDAY, FOR EXAMPLE.

THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTS OUT INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, AND THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM EASTERN MODOC UP INTO LAKE
COUNTY FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THAT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AND NO LONGER BE OF ANY
CONCERN TO US. HOWEVER, A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY MORE CLOUDINESS. THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY OVER LAND, BUT WE MAY
START TO SEE SOME RAINFALL OVER THE WATERS BY DAY`S END TUESDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FALL-LIKE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY, AND MODEL CONSISTENCY IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD, SO
CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST MODERATE AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. THE ROGUE VALLEY, CALIFORNIA,
AND EAST SIDE MAY ALSO SEE RAIN, BUT WE`VE KEPT POPS LOWER IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SORT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN CAN ALSO BE A BREEZY
ONE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
HAVEN`T MADE MANY CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD, BUT WE DID RAMP UP WINDS
IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE PEAK IN WINDS BEING WEDNESDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/BTL/TRW/DW









000
FXUS66 KMFR 191820
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1120 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
COQUILLE...UMPQUA...AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS THIS MORNING...PROBABLY
DUE IN PART TO THE RECENT RAINS OVER THAT REGION. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY...GIVING WAY TO A WARM AND DRY DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR YET ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY.

SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING IS AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL SKIRT
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS COULD BRING A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO MODOC AND
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE WARMING AND DRYING
TREND AND SOME EAST OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT...HUMIDITIES OVER THE
WILDFIRES WILL DEFINITELY LOWER...WITH HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
REACHING THE MODERATE AND PERHAPS POOR RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON AN
UPCOMING FALL-LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVING NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
RAIN TO THE EAST SIDE...WHERE KLAMATH FALLS HAS NOT RECORDED
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN MORE THAN 30 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/18Z TAF CYCLE...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF EAST WINDS AND A
DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE RETURN OF CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMOKE FROM AREA
WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PARTICULARLY
NEAR AND WEST OF HAPPY CAMP. BTL/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM PDT FRI 19 SEP 2014...
A THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY. NORTH WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE AND WILL BUILD INTO THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN
BUMPED UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ARE NOW
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. THIS WILL CREATE STEEP TO
VERY STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH WEAKENS. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AS THEY BECOME DOMINATED
BY A BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL AT 12 SECONDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING THEN THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS BEFORE A
STRONGER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY DELIVERS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING
WESTERLY SWELL WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. BTL/DW

&&

.CLIMATE...THIS SUMMER CONTINUES TO BE ON PACE TO BE THE HOTTEST
SUMMER ON RECORD FOR MEDFORD...IN TERMS OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. IN
FACT...RIGHT NOW THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS SUMMER IS
A SIGNIFICANT 1.3 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS RECORD HOTTEST
SUMMER...WHICH IS 2013. WITH MORE HOT WEATHER APPROACHING...ITS
VERY LIKELY THAT 2014 WILL REGISTER AS THE HOTTEST SUMMER ON
RECORD FOR MEDFORD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF COOLER WEATHER, WE WILL
START WARMING UP AGAIN TODAY AS THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT OUR COOLER
WEATHER SINKS FURTHER SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - 97 IS THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
MEDFORD SATURDAY, FOR EXAMPLE.

THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTS OUT INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, AND THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM EASTERN MODOC UP INTO LAKE
COUNTY FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THAT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AND NO LONGER BE OF ANY
CONCERN TO US. HOWEVER, A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY MORE CLOUDINESS. THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY OVER LAND, BUT WE MAY
START TO SEE SOME RAINFALL OVER THE WATERS BY DAY`S END TUESDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FALL-LIKE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY, AND MODEL CONSISTENCY IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD, SO
CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST MODERATE AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. THE ROGUE VALLEY, CALIFORNIA,
AND EAST SIDE MAY ALSO SEE RAIN, BUT WE`VE KEPT POPS LOWER IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SORT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN CAN ALSO BE A BREEZY
ONE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
HAVEN`T MADE MANY CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD, BUT WE DID RAMP UP WINDS
IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE PEAK IN WINDS BEING WEDNESDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/BTL/TRW/DW









  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPDT 191712 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1012 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND THE RESULT WAS TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP EAST TODAY MAINTAINING
THE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION COULD PROVIDE SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND THE SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.


.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.  WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THRU
THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPTION BEING KDLS WHERE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 15 KTS...THEN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT EVERYWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 402 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TODAY AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...ALLOWING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN OREGON FROM A CUTOFF LOW IN NEVADA. I INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUES, OCHOCOS, AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.  COONFIELD

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS PROGGED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY HELPING SHAVE ABOUT 5
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AND SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TWO
STATE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...BRINGING A PROLONGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BIEDA



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  80  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  83  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  82  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  82  48  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  78  42  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  76  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  79  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  82  54  89  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 191712 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1012 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND THE RESULT WAS TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP EAST TODAY MAINTAINING
THE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION COULD PROVIDE SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND THE SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.


.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.  WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THRU
THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPTION BEING KDLS WHERE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 15 KTS...THEN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT EVERYWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 402 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TODAY AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...ALLOWING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN OREGON FROM A CUTOFF LOW IN NEVADA. I INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUES, OCHOCOS, AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.  COONFIELD

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS PROGGED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY HELPING SHAVE ABOUT 5
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AND SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TWO
STATE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...BRINGING A PROLONGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BIEDA



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  80  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  83  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  82  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  82  48  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  78  42  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  76  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  79  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  82  54  89  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 191618
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MORE SETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW
WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW OREGON COAST WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON TODAY. THEN EXPECT A
DRY AND WARM WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. COOLER UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY NUDGING IN
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. MORNING CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING
AS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD
COVER OVER SW WASHINGTON AND THE FAR NW OREGON COAST AS A WEAK FRONT
CLIPS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAVE
MAINLY STAYED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE WEAK FRONT IS STILL
APPROACHING THE COAST SO ITS STILL POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES/ LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT THROUGH NOON TODAY AS IT STALLS AND
DISSIPATES NEAR THE WASHINGTON COAST. OTHERWISE... HAVE WARMED UP
TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS. WE WILL BE IN
A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FLOW STARTING TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /27

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH.  AS A RESULT...AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 850-900 MB THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
CASCADES AND PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE. THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD BREAK IN THE AFTERNOONS TO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MIX.  /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON VALLEYS THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG AND
LIFR STRATUS IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME IFR OR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE COUNTY WHICH MAY
OBSCURE THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 18Z THEN LIFT TO VFR BROKEN
CLOUDS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AFT 21Z. SOME IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER
IN THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE VALLEYS THROUGH 18Z. MVFR SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND S WASHINGTON COAST AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES BUT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST 18Z-23Z WITH THE DYING FRONT. SCHNEIDER


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS 4000-5000 FEET AT THE TERMINAL AND ON THE APPROACHES.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTH. THE THERMAL LOW WILL EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES
SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND STRATUS SURGE
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 FT TODAY WITH A MIX OF A LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. THERE IS
S BATTLE THIS MORNING FOR WHICH SWELL IS MORE DOMINANT BUT I THINK
THE NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD DOMINATE BY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
SWELL OF AROUND 8 TO 9 FT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS DROP BACK DOWN TO 5 OR 6 FT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 10 FT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
PACIFIC BECOMES MORE ENERGETIC AS A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES...
POSSIBLY PRODUCING THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN
SOME TIME. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     5 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 191618
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MORE SETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW
WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW OREGON COAST WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON TODAY. THEN EXPECT A
DRY AND WARM WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. COOLER UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY NUDGING IN
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. MORNING CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING
AS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD
COVER OVER SW WASHINGTON AND THE FAR NW OREGON COAST AS A WEAK FRONT
CLIPS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAVE
MAINLY STAYED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE WEAK FRONT IS STILL
APPROACHING THE COAST SO ITS STILL POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES/ LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT THROUGH NOON TODAY AS IT STALLS AND
DISSIPATES NEAR THE WASHINGTON COAST. OTHERWISE... HAVE WARMED UP
TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS. WE WILL BE IN
A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FLOW STARTING TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /27

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH.  AS A RESULT...AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 850-900 MB THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
CASCADES AND PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE. THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD BREAK IN THE AFTERNOONS TO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MIX.  /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON VALLEYS THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG AND
LIFR STRATUS IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME IFR OR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE COUNTY WHICH MAY
OBSCURE THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 18Z THEN LIFT TO VFR BROKEN
CLOUDS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AFT 21Z. SOME IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER
IN THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE VALLEYS THROUGH 18Z. MVFR SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND S WASHINGTON COAST AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES BUT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST 18Z-23Z WITH THE DYING FRONT. SCHNEIDER


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS 4000-5000 FEET AT THE TERMINAL AND ON THE APPROACHES.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTH. THE THERMAL LOW WILL EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES
SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND STRATUS SURGE
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 FT TODAY WITH A MIX OF A LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. THERE IS
S BATTLE THIS MORNING FOR WHICH SWELL IS MORE DOMINANT BUT I THINK
THE NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD DOMINATE BY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
SWELL OF AROUND 8 TO 9 FT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS DROP BACK DOWN TO 5 OR 6 FT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 10 FT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
PACIFIC BECOMES MORE ENERGETIC AS A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES...
POSSIBLY PRODUCING THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN
SOME TIME. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     5 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 191618
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MORE SETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW
WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW OREGON COAST WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON TODAY. THEN EXPECT A
DRY AND WARM WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. COOLER UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY NUDGING IN
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. MORNING CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING
AS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD
COVER OVER SW WASHINGTON AND THE FAR NW OREGON COAST AS A WEAK FRONT
CLIPS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAVE
MAINLY STAYED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE WEAK FRONT IS STILL
APPROACHING THE COAST SO ITS STILL POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES/ LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT THROUGH NOON TODAY AS IT STALLS AND
DISSIPATES NEAR THE WASHINGTON COAST. OTHERWISE... HAVE WARMED UP
TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS. WE WILL BE IN
A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FLOW STARTING TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /27

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH.  AS A RESULT...AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 850-900 MB THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
CASCADES AND PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE. THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD BREAK IN THE AFTERNOONS TO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MIX.  /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON VALLEYS THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG AND
LIFR STRATUS IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME IFR OR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE COUNTY WHICH MAY
OBSCURE THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 18Z THEN LIFT TO VFR BROKEN
CLOUDS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AFT 21Z. SOME IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER
IN THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE VALLEYS THROUGH 18Z. MVFR SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND S WASHINGTON COAST AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES BUT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST 18Z-23Z WITH THE DYING FRONT. SCHNEIDER


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS 4000-5000 FEET AT THE TERMINAL AND ON THE APPROACHES.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTH. THE THERMAL LOW WILL EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES
SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND STRATUS SURGE
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 FT TODAY WITH A MIX OF A LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. THERE IS
S BATTLE THIS MORNING FOR WHICH SWELL IS MORE DOMINANT BUT I THINK
THE NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD DOMINATE BY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
SWELL OF AROUND 8 TO 9 FT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS DROP BACK DOWN TO 5 OR 6 FT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 10 FT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
PACIFIC BECOMES MORE ENERGETIC AS A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES...
POSSIBLY PRODUCING THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN
SOME TIME. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     5 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 191618
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MORE SETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW
WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW OREGON COAST WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON TODAY. THEN EXPECT A
DRY AND WARM WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. COOLER UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY NUDGING IN
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. MORNING CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING
AS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD
COVER OVER SW WASHINGTON AND THE FAR NW OREGON COAST AS A WEAK FRONT
CLIPS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAVE
MAINLY STAYED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE WEAK FRONT IS STILL
APPROACHING THE COAST SO ITS STILL POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES/ LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT THROUGH NOON TODAY AS IT STALLS AND
DISSIPATES NEAR THE WASHINGTON COAST. OTHERWISE... HAVE WARMED UP
TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SUNBREAKS. WE WILL BE IN
A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FLOW STARTING TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /27

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH.  AS A RESULT...AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 850-900 MB THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
CASCADES AND PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE. THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD BREAK IN THE AFTERNOONS TO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MIX.  /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON VALLEYS THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG AND
LIFR STRATUS IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME IFR OR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF LANE COUNTY WHICH MAY
OBSCURE THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 18Z THEN LIFT TO VFR BROKEN
CLOUDS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AFT 21Z. SOME IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER
IN THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE VALLEYS THROUGH 18Z. MVFR SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND S WASHINGTON COAST AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES BUT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST 18Z-23Z WITH THE DYING FRONT. SCHNEIDER


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS 4000-5000 FEET AT THE TERMINAL AND ON THE APPROACHES.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING IN THE NORTH AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND PUSHES NORTH. THE THERMAL LOW WILL EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES
SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND STRATUS SURGE
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 FT TODAY WITH A MIX OF A LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. THERE IS
S BATTLE THIS MORNING FOR WHICH SWELL IS MORE DOMINANT BUT I THINK
THE NORTHWEST SWELL SHOULD DOMINATE BY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
SWELL OF AROUND 8 TO 9 FT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS DROP BACK DOWN TO 5 OR 6 FT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 10 FT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
PACIFIC BECOMES MORE ENERGETIC AS A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES...
POSSIBLY PRODUCING THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN
SOME TIME. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     5 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 191603 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
855 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND THE RESULT WAS TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP EAST TODAY MAINTAINING
THE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION COULD PROVIDE SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND THE SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 402 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TODAY AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...ALLOWING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN OREGON FROM A CUTOFF LOW IN NEVADA. I INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUES, OCHOCOS, AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.  COONFIELD

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS PROGGED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY HELPING SHAVE ABOUT 5
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AND SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TWO
STATE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...BRINGING A PROLONGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BIEDA

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.  A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL AFFECT KDLS WITH CIG AOA 4K FT
AGL THRU 19/22Z.  OTHERWISE...PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AOA
20K FT AGL WILL CONTINUE THRU 20/04Z AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.  WINDS
WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPTION BEING KDLS WHERE
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 KTS BTWN 19/22Z TO 20/03Z AS
WESTERLY WINDS ACCELERATE THROUGH THE GORGE.  BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  80  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  83  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  82  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  82  48  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  78  42  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  76  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  79  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  82  54  89  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/









000
FXUS66 KPDT 191603 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
855 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND THE RESULT WAS TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP EAST TODAY MAINTAINING
THE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION COULD PROVIDE SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND THE SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 402 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TODAY AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...ALLOWING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN OREGON FROM A CUTOFF LOW IN NEVADA. I INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUES, OCHOCOS, AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.  COONFIELD

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS PROGGED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY HELPING SHAVE ABOUT 5
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AND SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TWO
STATE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...BRINGING A PROLONGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BIEDA

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.  A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL AFFECT KDLS WITH CIG AOA 4K FT
AGL THRU 19/22Z.  OTHERWISE...PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AOA
20K FT AGL WILL CONTINUE THRU 20/04Z AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.  WINDS
WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPTION BEING KDLS WHERE
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 KTS BTWN 19/22Z TO 20/03Z AS
WESTERLY WINDS ACCELERATE THROUGH THE GORGE.  BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  80  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  83  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  82  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  82  48  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  78  42  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  76  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  79  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  82  54  89  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/









000
FXUS66 KPDT 191603 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
855 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND THE RESULT WAS TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP EAST TODAY MAINTAINING
THE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION COULD PROVIDE SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND THE SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 402 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TODAY AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...ALLOWING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN OREGON FROM A CUTOFF LOW IN NEVADA. I INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUES, OCHOCOS, AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.  COONFIELD

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS PROGGED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY HELPING SHAVE ABOUT 5
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AND SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TWO
STATE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...BRINGING A PROLONGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BIEDA

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.  A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL AFFECT KDLS WITH CIG AOA 4K FT
AGL THRU 19/22Z.  OTHERWISE...PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AOA
20K FT AGL WILL CONTINUE THRU 20/04Z AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.  WINDS
WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPTION BEING KDLS WHERE
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 KTS BTWN 19/22Z TO 20/03Z AS
WESTERLY WINDS ACCELERATE THROUGH THE GORGE.  BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  80  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  83  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  82  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  82  48  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  78  42  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  76  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  79  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  82  54  89  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/









000
FXUS66 KPDT 191603 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
855 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND THE RESULT WAS TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP EAST TODAY MAINTAINING
THE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION COULD PROVIDE SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND THE SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 402 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TODAY AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...ALLOWING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN OREGON FROM A CUTOFF LOW IN NEVADA. I INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUES, OCHOCOS, AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.  COONFIELD

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS PROGGED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY HELPING SHAVE ABOUT 5
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AND SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TWO
STATE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...BRINGING A PROLONGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BIEDA

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.  A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL AFFECT KDLS WITH CIG AOA 4K FT
AGL THRU 19/22Z.  OTHERWISE...PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AOA
20K FT AGL WILL CONTINUE THRU 20/04Z AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.  WINDS
WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPTION BEING KDLS WHERE
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 KTS BTWN 19/22Z TO 20/03Z AS
WESTERLY WINDS ACCELERATE THROUGH THE GORGE.  BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  80  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  83  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  82  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  82  48  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  78  42  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  76  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  79  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  82  54  89  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/









000
FXUS66 KMFR 191541
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
841 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
COQUILLE...UMPQUA...AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS THIS MORNING...PROBABLY
DUE IN PART TO THE RECENT RAINS OVER THAT REGION. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY...GIVING WAY TO A WARM AND DRY DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR YET ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY.

SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING IS AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL SKIRT
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS COULD BRING A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO MODOC AND
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE WARMING AND DRYING
TREND AND SOME EAST OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT...HUMIDITIES OVER THE
WILDFIRES WILL DEFINITELY LOWER...WITH HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
REACHING THE MODERATE AND PERHAPS POOR RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON AN
UPCOMING FALL-LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVING NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
RAIN TO THE EAST SIDE...WHERE KLAMATH FALLS HAS NOT RECORDED
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN MORE THAN 30 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
COAST, INTO COASTAL VALLEYS, THE UMPQUA VALLEY, AND THE VALLEYS
OF JOSEPHINE COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING WITH THE FASTEST IMPROVEMENT
INLAND. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE AND THE COMBINATION OF
OFFSHORE EASTERLY WINDS AND A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
PREVENT A RETURN OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES HAS DIMINISHED BUT EXPECT
PATCHY SMOKE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT FRI 19 SEP 2014...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY. NORTH WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE AND WILL BUILD
INTO THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PEAK AT JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE. THIS WILL CREATE STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND WAVE
DOMINATED SEAS INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS. BUT,
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AS THEY BECOME DOMINATED BY A BUILDING
NORTHWEST SWELL AT 12 SECONDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING
THEN THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS BEFORE A STRONGER
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY DELIVERS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING WESTERLY
SWELL WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. /DW



&&

.CLIMATE...THIS SUMMER CONTINUES TO BE ON PACE TO BE THE HOTTEST
SUMMER ON RECORD FOR MEDFORD...IN TERMS OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. IN
FACT...RIGHT NOW THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS SUMMER IS
A SIGNIFICANT 1.3 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS RECORD HOTTEST
SUMMER...WHICH IS 2013. WITH MORE HOT WEATHER APPROACHING...ITS
VERY LIKELY THAT 2014 WILL REGISTER AS THE HOTTEST SUMMER ON
RECORD FOR MEDFORD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF COOLER WEATHER, WE WILL
START WARMING UP AGAIN TODAY AS THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT OUR COOLER
WEATHER SINKS FURTHER SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - 97 IS THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
MEDFORD SATURDAY, FOR EXAMPLE.

THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTS OUT INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, AND THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM EASTERN MODOC UP INTO LAKE
COUNTY FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THAT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AND NO LONGER BE OF ANY
CONCERN TO US. HOWEVER, A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY MORE CLOUDINESS. THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY OVER LAND, BUT WE MAY
START TO SEE SOME RAINFALL OVER THE WATERS BY DAY`S END TUESDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FALL-LIKE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY, AND MODEL CONSISTENCY IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD, SO
CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST MODERATE AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. THE ROGUE VALLEY, CALIFORNIA,
AND EAST SIDE MAY ALSO SEE RAIN, BUT WE`VE KEPT POPS LOWER IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SORT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN CAN ALSO BE A BREEZY
ONE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
HAVEN`T MADE MANY CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD, BUT WE DID RAMP UP WINDS
IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE PEAK IN WINDS BEING WEDNESDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

TRW/TRW/DW







000
FXUS66 KMFR 191541
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
841 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
COQUILLE...UMPQUA...AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS THIS MORNING...PROBABLY
DUE IN PART TO THE RECENT RAINS OVER THAT REGION. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY...GIVING WAY TO A WARM AND DRY DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR YET ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY.

SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING IS AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL SKIRT
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS COULD BRING A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO MODOC AND
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE WARMING AND DRYING
TREND AND SOME EAST OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT...HUMIDITIES OVER THE
WILDFIRES WILL DEFINITELY LOWER...WITH HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
REACHING THE MODERATE AND PERHAPS POOR RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON AN
UPCOMING FALL-LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVING NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
RAIN TO THE EAST SIDE...WHERE KLAMATH FALLS HAS NOT RECORDED
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN MORE THAN 30 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
COAST, INTO COASTAL VALLEYS, THE UMPQUA VALLEY, AND THE VALLEYS
OF JOSEPHINE COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING WITH THE FASTEST IMPROVEMENT
INLAND. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE AND THE COMBINATION OF
OFFSHORE EASTERLY WINDS AND A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
PREVENT A RETURN OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES HAS DIMINISHED BUT EXPECT
PATCHY SMOKE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT FRI 19 SEP 2014...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY. NORTH WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE AND WILL BUILD
INTO THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PEAK AT JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE. THIS WILL CREATE STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND WAVE
DOMINATED SEAS INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS. BUT,
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AS THEY BECOME DOMINATED BY A BUILDING
NORTHWEST SWELL AT 12 SECONDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING
THEN THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS BEFORE A STRONGER
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY DELIVERS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING WESTERLY
SWELL WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. /DW



&&

.CLIMATE...THIS SUMMER CONTINUES TO BE ON PACE TO BE THE HOTTEST
SUMMER ON RECORD FOR MEDFORD...IN TERMS OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. IN
FACT...RIGHT NOW THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS SUMMER IS
A SIGNIFICANT 1.3 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS RECORD HOTTEST
SUMMER...WHICH IS 2013. WITH MORE HOT WEATHER APPROACHING...ITS
VERY LIKELY THAT 2014 WILL REGISTER AS THE HOTTEST SUMMER ON
RECORD FOR MEDFORD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF COOLER WEATHER, WE WILL
START WARMING UP AGAIN TODAY AS THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT OUR COOLER
WEATHER SINKS FURTHER SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - 97 IS THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
MEDFORD SATURDAY, FOR EXAMPLE.

THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTS OUT INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, AND THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM EASTERN MODOC UP INTO LAKE
COUNTY FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THAT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AND NO LONGER BE OF ANY
CONCERN TO US. HOWEVER, A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY MORE CLOUDINESS. THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY OVER LAND, BUT WE MAY
START TO SEE SOME RAINFALL OVER THE WATERS BY DAY`S END TUESDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FALL-LIKE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY, AND MODEL CONSISTENCY IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD, SO
CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST MODERATE AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. THE ROGUE VALLEY, CALIFORNIA,
AND EAST SIDE MAY ALSO SEE RAIN, BUT WE`VE KEPT POPS LOWER IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SORT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN CAN ALSO BE A BREEZY
ONE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
HAVEN`T MADE MANY CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD, BUT WE DID RAMP UP WINDS
IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE PEAK IN WINDS BEING WEDNESDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

TRW/TRW/DW







000
FXUS66 KMFR 191541
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
841 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
COQUILLE...UMPQUA...AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS THIS MORNING...PROBABLY
DUE IN PART TO THE RECENT RAINS OVER THAT REGION. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY...GIVING WAY TO A WARM AND DRY DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR YET ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY.

SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING IS AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL SKIRT
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS COULD BRING A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO MODOC AND
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE WARMING AND DRYING
TREND AND SOME EAST OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT...HUMIDITIES OVER THE
WILDFIRES WILL DEFINITELY LOWER...WITH HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
REACHING THE MODERATE AND PERHAPS POOR RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON AN
UPCOMING FALL-LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVING NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
RAIN TO THE EAST SIDE...WHERE KLAMATH FALLS HAS NOT RECORDED
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN MORE THAN 30 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
COAST, INTO COASTAL VALLEYS, THE UMPQUA VALLEY, AND THE VALLEYS
OF JOSEPHINE COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING WITH THE FASTEST IMPROVEMENT
INLAND. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE AND THE COMBINATION OF
OFFSHORE EASTERLY WINDS AND A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
PREVENT A RETURN OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES HAS DIMINISHED BUT EXPECT
PATCHY SMOKE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT FRI 19 SEP 2014...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY. NORTH WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE AND WILL BUILD
INTO THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PEAK AT JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE. THIS WILL CREATE STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND WAVE
DOMINATED SEAS INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS. BUT,
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AS THEY BECOME DOMINATED BY A BUILDING
NORTHWEST SWELL AT 12 SECONDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING
THEN THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS BEFORE A STRONGER
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY DELIVERS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING WESTERLY
SWELL WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. /DW



&&

.CLIMATE...THIS SUMMER CONTINUES TO BE ON PACE TO BE THE HOTTEST
SUMMER ON RECORD FOR MEDFORD...IN TERMS OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. IN
FACT...RIGHT NOW THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS SUMMER IS
A SIGNIFICANT 1.3 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS RECORD HOTTEST
SUMMER...WHICH IS 2013. WITH MORE HOT WEATHER APPROACHING...ITS
VERY LIKELY THAT 2014 WILL REGISTER AS THE HOTTEST SUMMER ON
RECORD FOR MEDFORD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF COOLER WEATHER, WE WILL
START WARMING UP AGAIN TODAY AS THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT OUR COOLER
WEATHER SINKS FURTHER SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - 97 IS THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
MEDFORD SATURDAY, FOR EXAMPLE.

THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTS OUT INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, AND THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM EASTERN MODOC UP INTO LAKE
COUNTY FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THAT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AND NO LONGER BE OF ANY
CONCERN TO US. HOWEVER, A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY MORE CLOUDINESS. THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY OVER LAND, BUT WE MAY
START TO SEE SOME RAINFALL OVER THE WATERS BY DAY`S END TUESDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FALL-LIKE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY, AND MODEL CONSISTENCY IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD, SO
CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST MODERATE AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. THE ROGUE VALLEY, CALIFORNIA,
AND EAST SIDE MAY ALSO SEE RAIN, BUT WE`VE KEPT POPS LOWER IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SORT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN CAN ALSO BE A BREEZY
ONE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
HAVEN`T MADE MANY CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD, BUT WE DID RAMP UP WINDS
IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE PEAK IN WINDS BEING WEDNESDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

TRW/TRW/DW







000
FXUS66 KMFR 191541
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
841 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
COQUILLE...UMPQUA...AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS THIS MORNING...PROBABLY
DUE IN PART TO THE RECENT RAINS OVER THAT REGION. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY...GIVING WAY TO A WARM AND DRY DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR YET ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY.

SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING IS AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL SKIRT
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND THIS COULD BRING A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO MODOC AND
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE WARMING AND DRYING
TREND AND SOME EAST OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT...HUMIDITIES OVER THE
WILDFIRES WILL DEFINITELY LOWER...WITH HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
REACHING THE MODERATE AND PERHAPS POOR RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON AN
UPCOMING FALL-LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVING NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
RAIN TO THE EAST SIDE...WHERE KLAMATH FALLS HAS NOT RECORDED
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN MORE THAN 30 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
COAST, INTO COASTAL VALLEYS, THE UMPQUA VALLEY, AND THE VALLEYS
OF JOSEPHINE COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING WITH THE FASTEST IMPROVEMENT
INLAND. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE AND THE COMBINATION OF
OFFSHORE EASTERLY WINDS AND A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
PREVENT A RETURN OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES HAS DIMINISHED BUT EXPECT
PATCHY SMOKE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT FRI 19 SEP 2014...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY. NORTH WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE AND WILL BUILD
INTO THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PEAK AT JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE. THIS WILL CREATE STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND WAVE
DOMINATED SEAS INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS. BUT,
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AS THEY BECOME DOMINATED BY A BUILDING
NORTHWEST SWELL AT 12 SECONDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING
THEN THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS BEFORE A STRONGER
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY DELIVERS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING WESTERLY
SWELL WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. /DW



&&

.CLIMATE...THIS SUMMER CONTINUES TO BE ON PACE TO BE THE HOTTEST
SUMMER ON RECORD FOR MEDFORD...IN TERMS OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. IN
FACT...RIGHT NOW THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS SUMMER IS
A SIGNIFICANT 1.3 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS RECORD HOTTEST
SUMMER...WHICH IS 2013. WITH MORE HOT WEATHER APPROACHING...ITS
VERY LIKELY THAT 2014 WILL REGISTER AS THE HOTTEST SUMMER ON
RECORD FOR MEDFORD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF COOLER WEATHER, WE WILL
START WARMING UP AGAIN TODAY AS THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT OUR COOLER
WEATHER SINKS FURTHER SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - 97 IS THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
MEDFORD SATURDAY, FOR EXAMPLE.

THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTS OUT INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, AND THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM EASTERN MODOC UP INTO LAKE
COUNTY FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THAT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AND NO LONGER BE OF ANY
CONCERN TO US. HOWEVER, A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY MORE CLOUDINESS. THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY OVER LAND, BUT WE MAY
START TO SEE SOME RAINFALL OVER THE WATERS BY DAY`S END TUESDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FALL-LIKE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY, AND MODEL CONSISTENCY IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD, SO
CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST MODERATE AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. THE ROGUE VALLEY, CALIFORNIA,
AND EAST SIDE MAY ALSO SEE RAIN, BUT WE`VE KEPT POPS LOWER IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SORT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN CAN ALSO BE A BREEZY
ONE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
HAVEN`T MADE MANY CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD, BUT WE DID RAMP UP WINDS
IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE PEAK IN WINDS BEING WEDNESDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

TRW/TRW/DW






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 191522
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
921 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...MUCH CLEARER SKIES TODAY AS WINDS ALOFT HAVE BECOME
WESTERLY AND NO LONGER BRING SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE IN CALIF.
WE EXPECT CONTINUED SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN GREATER
IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW COMES IN FROM NEVADA WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY AND THEN EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT.  AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER UNDER WEAK TROUGHING
ALOFT...BUT SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER AGAIN AS UPPER RIDGE REPLACES
THE TROUGH.  NO PCPN UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE NEVADA UPPER LOW COMES
IN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN IDAHO ZONES. OREGON
ZONES WILL STAY DRY.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON TODAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 6000 FT MSL VCNTY KBKE
TIL 20Z. LIGHT SFC WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NW 20
TO 25 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY CLEARER SKIES TODAY AS WESTERLY FLOW KEEPS SMOKE FROM
THE KING FIRE OVER CA/NV AND TAKES 4-7F DEGREES OFF YESTERDAY/S
HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHILE THE ARIMASS REMAINS MOIST...THE
INCREASED STABILITY WILL KEEP SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PAC NW ON SATURDAY
DRIVING TEMPERATURES BACK UP THE 4-7F DEGREES WE LOSE TODAY. THE
AIRMASS DRIES OUT WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE W-NW
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE N-NE. THOUGH LARGE FIRES REMAIN
IN OREGON THE SMOKE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LESS THAN THOSE IN NORTHERN
CA...THUS WILL SEE LESS SMOKE IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND REACH
SOUTHERN IDAHO ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON /NOT INCLUDING
BAKER OR BURNS/ SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WEST OF THE LOW TRACK /WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF SOUTHEAST OREGON/...
AND NEAR NORMAL CLOSE TO THE LOW TRACK /WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF SW
IDAHO/ OWING TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
APPROACH THE AREA BY THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JB
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....BW




000
FXUS65 KBOI 191522
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
921 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...MUCH CLEARER SKIES TODAY AS WINDS ALOFT HAVE BECOME
WESTERLY AND NO LONGER BRING SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE IN CALIF.
WE EXPECT CONTINUED SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN GREATER
IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW COMES IN FROM NEVADA WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY AND THEN EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT.  AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER UNDER WEAK TROUGHING
ALOFT...BUT SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER AGAIN AS UPPER RIDGE REPLACES
THE TROUGH.  NO PCPN UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE NEVADA UPPER LOW COMES
IN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN IDAHO ZONES. OREGON
ZONES WILL STAY DRY.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON TODAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 6000 FT MSL VCNTY KBKE
TIL 20Z. LIGHT SFC WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NW 20
TO 25 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY CLEARER SKIES TODAY AS WESTERLY FLOW KEEPS SMOKE FROM
THE KING FIRE OVER CA/NV AND TAKES 4-7F DEGREES OFF YESTERDAY/S
HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHILE THE ARIMASS REMAINS MOIST...THE
INCREASED STABILITY WILL KEEP SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PAC NW ON SATURDAY
DRIVING TEMPERATURES BACK UP THE 4-7F DEGREES WE LOSE TODAY. THE
AIRMASS DRIES OUT WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE W-NW
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE N-NE. THOUGH LARGE FIRES REMAIN
IN OREGON THE SMOKE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LESS THAN THOSE IN NORTHERN
CA...THUS WILL SEE LESS SMOKE IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND REACH
SOUTHERN IDAHO ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON /NOT INCLUDING
BAKER OR BURNS/ SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WEST OF THE LOW TRACK /WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF SOUTHEAST OREGON/...
AND NEAR NORMAL CLOSE TO THE LOW TRACK /WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF SW
IDAHO/ OWING TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
APPROACH THE AREA BY THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JB
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....BW



000
FXUS66 KPDT 191103 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
402 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TODAY AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...ALLOWING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN OREGON FROM A CUTOFF LOW IN NEVADA. I INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUES, OCHOCOS, AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.  COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS PROGGED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY HELPING SHAVE ABOUT 5
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AND SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TWO
STATE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...BRINGING A PROLONGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.  A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL AFFECT KDLS WITH CIG AOA 4K FT
AGL THRU 19/22Z.  OTHERWISE...PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AOA
20K FT AGL WILL CONTINUE THRU 20/04Z AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.  WINDS
WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPTION BEING KDLS WHERE
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 KTS BTWN 19/22Z TO 20/03Z AS
WESTERLY WINDS ACCELERATE THROUGH THE GORGE.  BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  80  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  83  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  82  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  82  48  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  78  42  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  77  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  79  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  82  54  89  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/98/98







000
FXUS66 KPDT 191103 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
402 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TODAY AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...ALLOWING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN OREGON FROM A CUTOFF LOW IN NEVADA. I INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUES, OCHOCOS, AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.  COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS PROGGED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY HELPING SHAVE ABOUT 5
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AND SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TWO
STATE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...BRINGING A PROLONGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.  A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL AFFECT KDLS WITH CIG AOA 4K FT
AGL THRU 19/22Z.  OTHERWISE...PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AOA
20K FT AGL WILL CONTINUE THRU 20/04Z AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.  WINDS
WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPTION BEING KDLS WHERE
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 KTS BTWN 19/22Z TO 20/03Z AS
WESTERLY WINDS ACCELERATE THROUGH THE GORGE.  BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  80  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  83  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  82  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  82  48  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  78  42  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  77  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  79  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  82  54  89  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/98/98






000
FXUS66 KPDT 191058 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
358 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TODAY AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...ALLOWING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN OREGON FROM A CUTOFF LOW IN NEVADA. I INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUES, OCHOCOS, AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.  COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS PROGGED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY HELPING SHAVE ABOUT 5
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AND SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TWO
STATE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...BRINGING A PROLONGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.  PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL WILL
CONTINUE THRU 20/04Z.  WINDS WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE
PERIOD...EXCEPTION BEING KDLS WHERE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25
KTS BTWN 19/22Z TO 20/03Z AS WESTERLY WINDS ACCELERATE THROUGH THE
GORGE.  BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  80  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  83  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  82  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  82  48  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  78  42  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  77  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  79  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  82  54  89  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/98/98







000
FXUS66 KPDT 191058 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
358 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TODAY AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...ALLOWING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN OREGON FROM A CUTOFF LOW IN NEVADA. I INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUES, OCHOCOS, AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.  COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS PROGGED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY HELPING SHAVE ABOUT 5
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AND SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TWO
STATE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...BRINGING A PROLONGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.  PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL WILL
CONTINUE THRU 20/04Z.  WINDS WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THRU THE
PERIOD...EXCEPTION BEING KDLS WHERE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25
KTS BTWN 19/22Z TO 20/03Z AS WESTERLY WINDS ACCELERATE THROUGH THE
GORGE.  BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  80  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  83  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  82  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  82  48  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  78  42  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  77  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  79  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  82  54  89  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/98/98






000
FXUS66 KPQR 191008
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
306 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MORE SETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW
WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW OREGON COAST WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON TODAY. THEN A DRY
AND WARM WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. COOLER UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND WESTERLY FLOW PUNCHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
ABOUND. A LOOP OF DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES. BUT MAY STILL HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND...SO WILL LEAVE 20 PCT PROBABILITY FOR TONIGHT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH CLEAR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO FRI AM.

TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOW WEAKENING FRONT ABOUT 150 MI OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND LIKELY STALL AND DISSIPATE
NEAR THE WASHINGTON COAST. EXPECT SOME LIGHT PCPN REACHING THE S WA
AND N OREGON COAST TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW A
TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES...A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER INTERIOR ZONES TODAY. FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES WILL DISSIPATE LATER IN THE
DAY DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH.  AS A RESULT...AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 850-900 MB THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
CASCADES AND PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE. THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD BREAK IN THE AFTERNOONS TO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MIX.  /MH

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS MOSTLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT A MIXTURE OF IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST IN ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT SOME OF
THE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND INTO
THE NORTH VALLEY AREA AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH...SUCH AS KONP AND KEUG WILL BE VFR BY
FAIRLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS IN THE NORTH VALLEY SUCH AS
NEAR KPDX WILL LIFT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUDS MAY NOT
FULLY CLEAR UNTIL THE EVENING. NORTH COAST AREAS SUCH AS NEAR KAST
MAY STRUGGLE TO LIFT TO VFR CIGS UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON...AND
MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. CLOUDS LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH COAST TONIGHT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AND PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CENTRAL COAST
MAY SEE SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS INLAND TOWARD SUNRISE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A CHANCE
OF MVFR CIGS FROM ABOUT 13Z OR 14Z UNTIL 17Z OR 18Z. VFR CIGS MAY
THEN CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...CLEARING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY CLOUDS AT HIGHER IFR OR LOWER MVFR HEIGHTS
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE TODAY AND EXTEND NORTH
ALONG THE OREGON COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND STRATUS SURGE WILL THEN MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 FT TODAY WITH A MIX OF A LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. NORTHWEST
SWELL IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME DOMINANT AS 8 TO 9 FT SEAS BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS DROP BACK DOWN TO
5 OR 6 FT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 10 FT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
PACIFIC BECOMES MORE ENERGETIC AS A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES...
POSSIBLY PRODUCING THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN
SOME TIME. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     5 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 191008
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
306 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MORE SETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW
WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW OREGON COAST WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON TODAY. THEN A DRY
AND WARM WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. COOLER UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND WESTERLY FLOW PUNCHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
ABOUND. A LOOP OF DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES. BUT MAY STILL HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND...SO WILL LEAVE 20 PCT PROBABILITY FOR TONIGHT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH CLEAR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO FRI AM.

TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOW WEAKENING FRONT ABOUT 150 MI OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND LIKELY STALL AND DISSIPATE
NEAR THE WASHINGTON COAST. EXPECT SOME LIGHT PCPN REACHING THE S WA
AND N OREGON COAST TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW A
TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES...A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER INTERIOR ZONES TODAY. FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES WILL DISSIPATE LATER IN THE
DAY DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH.  AS A RESULT...AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND 850-900 MB THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
CASCADES AND PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE. THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
SHOULD BREAK IN THE AFTERNOONS TO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO MIX.  /MH

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS MOSTLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT A MIXTURE OF IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST IN ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT SOME OF
THE MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND INTO
THE NORTH VALLEY AREA AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH...SUCH AS KONP AND KEUG WILL BE VFR BY
FAIRLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS IN THE NORTH VALLEY SUCH AS
NEAR KPDX WILL LIFT TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUDS MAY NOT
FULLY CLEAR UNTIL THE EVENING. NORTH COAST AREAS SUCH AS NEAR KAST
MAY STRUGGLE TO LIFT TO VFR CIGS UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON...AND
MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. CLOUDS LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH COAST TONIGHT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AND PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CENTRAL COAST
MAY SEE SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS INLAND TOWARD SUNRISE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A CHANCE
OF MVFR CIGS FROM ABOUT 13Z OR 14Z UNTIL 17Z OR 18Z. VFR CIGS MAY
THEN CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...CLEARING IN THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY CLOUDS AT HIGHER IFR OR LOWER MVFR HEIGHTS
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE TODAY AND EXTEND NORTH
ALONG THE OREGON COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL AND STRATUS SURGE WILL THEN MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 FT TODAY WITH A MIX OF A LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. NORTHWEST
SWELL IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME DOMINANT AS 8 TO 9 FT SEAS BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS DROP BACK DOWN TO
5 OR 6 FT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 10 FT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
PACIFIC BECOMES MORE ENERGETIC AS A STRONGER STORM APPROACHES...
POSSIBLY PRODUCING THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WE HAVE SEEN IN
SOME TIME. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO
     5 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 191004
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF COOLER WEATHER, WE WILL
START WARMING UP AGAIN TODAY AS THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT OUR COOLER
WEATHER SINKS FURTHER SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - 97 IS THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
MEDFORD SATURDAY, FOR EXAMPLE.

THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTS OUT INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, AND THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM EASTERN MODOC UP INTO LAKE
COUNTY FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THAT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AND NO LONGER BE OF ANY
CONCERN TO US. HOWEVER, A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY MORE CLOUDINESS. THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY OVER LAND, BUT WE MAY
START TO SEE SOME RAINFALL OVER THE WATERS BY DAY`S END TUESDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FALL-LIKE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY, AND MODEL CONSISTENCY IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD, SO
CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST MODERATE AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. THE ROGUE VALLEY, CALIFORNIA,
AND EAST SIDE MAY ALSO SEE RAIN, BUT WE`VE KEPT POPS LOWER IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SORT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN CAN ALSO BE A BREEZY
ONE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
HAVEN`T MADE MANY CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD, BUT WE DID RAMP UP WINDS
IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE PEAK IN WINDS BEING WEDNESDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/06Z TAF CYCLE...
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE
CASCADES, BUT SOME TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SIDE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SMOKE FROM AREA
WILDFIRES HAS DIMINISHED BUT EXPECT PATCHY SMOKE OVER SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 PM PDT THU 18 SEP 2014...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
SOUTHWEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT. THEN A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASED NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND WAVES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
BE AFFECTED BY STEEP SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
VERY STEEP SEAS DEVELOPING FROM PORT ORFORD SOUTH, MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO BEING DOMINATED BY A MODERATE SWELL DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEN A WEAK FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THESE FRONT MAY BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS. ALSO EXPECT BUILDING SEAS FROM WESTERLY SWELL BY MID WEEK
WHICH MAY BRING SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT TO THE WATERS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$







000
FXUS66 KMFR 191004
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF COOLER WEATHER, WE WILL
START WARMING UP AGAIN TODAY AS THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT OUR COOLER
WEATHER SINKS FURTHER SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - 97 IS THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
MEDFORD SATURDAY, FOR EXAMPLE.

THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTS OUT INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, AND THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM EASTERN MODOC UP INTO LAKE
COUNTY FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THAT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AND NO LONGER BE OF ANY
CONCERN TO US. HOWEVER, A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
OFFSHORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY MORE CLOUDINESS. THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY OVER LAND, BUT WE MAY
START TO SEE SOME RAINFALL OVER THE WATERS BY DAY`S END TUESDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FALL-LIKE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY, AND MODEL CONSISTENCY IS ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD, SO
CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST MODERATE AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS. THE ROGUE VALLEY, CALIFORNIA,
AND EAST SIDE MAY ALSO SEE RAIN, BUT WE`VE KEPT POPS LOWER IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SORT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN CAN ALSO BE A BREEZY
ONE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
HAVEN`T MADE MANY CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD, BUT WE DID RAMP UP WINDS
IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE PEAK IN WINDS BEING WEDNESDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/06Z TAF CYCLE...
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE
CASCADES, BUT SOME TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SIDE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SMOKE FROM AREA
WILDFIRES HAS DIMINISHED BUT EXPECT PATCHY SMOKE OVER SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 PM PDT THU 18 SEP 2014...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
SOUTHWEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT. THEN A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASED NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND WAVES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
BE AFFECTED BY STEEP SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
VERY STEEP SEAS DEVELOPING FROM PORT ORFORD SOUTH, MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO BEING DOMINATED BY A MODERATE SWELL DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEN A WEAK FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THESE FRONT MAY BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS. ALSO EXPECT BUILDING SEAS FROM WESTERLY SWELL BY MID WEEK
WHICH MAY BRING SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT TO THE WATERS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$








000
FXUS65 KBOI 190938
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
338 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY CLEARER SKIES TODAY AS WESTERLY FLOW KEEPS SMOKE FROM
THE KING FIRE OVER CA/NV AND TAKES 4-7F DEGREES OFF OF YESTERDAY/S
HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHILE THE ARIMASS REMAINS MOIST...THE
INCREASED STABILITY WILL KEEP SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PAC NW ON SATURDAY
DRIVING TEMPERATURES BACK UP THE 4-7F DEGREES WE LOSE TODAY. THE
AIRMASS DRIES OUT WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE W-NW
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE N-NE. THOUGH LARGE FIRES REMAIN
IN OREGON THE SMOKE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LESS OF THOSE IN NORTHERN
CA...THUS WILL SEE LESS SMOKE IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND REACH
SOUTHERN IDAHO ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON /NOT INCLUDING
BAKER OR BURNS/ SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WEST OF THE LOW TRACK /WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON/...AND NEAR NORMAL CLOSE TO THE LOW TRACK /WHICH INCLUDES
MOST OF SW IDAHO/ OWING TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. A DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR SMOKE
THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY /INCLUDING
KTWF/ AND ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. LIGHT MAINLY NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS TO 10 KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AROUND 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH
10K FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW




000
FXUS65 KBOI 190938
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
338 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY CLEARER SKIES TODAY AS WESTERLY FLOW KEEPS SMOKE FROM
THE KING FIRE OVER CA/NV AND TAKES 4-7F DEGREES OFF OF YESTERDAY/S
HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHILE THE ARIMASS REMAINS MOIST...THE
INCREASED STABILITY WILL KEEP SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PAC NW ON SATURDAY
DRIVING TEMPERATURES BACK UP THE 4-7F DEGREES WE LOSE TODAY. THE
AIRMASS DRIES OUT WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE W-NW
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE N-NE. THOUGH LARGE FIRES REMAIN
IN OREGON THE SMOKE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LESS OF THOSE IN NORTHERN
CA...THUS WILL SEE LESS SMOKE IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND REACH
SOUTHERN IDAHO ON SUNDAY...THEN PUSH EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON /NOT INCLUDING
BAKER OR BURNS/ SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WEST OF THE LOW TRACK /WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON/...AND NEAR NORMAL CLOSE TO THE LOW TRACK /WHICH INCLUDES
MOST OF SW IDAHO/ OWING TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. A DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR SMOKE
THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY /INCLUDING
KTWF/ AND ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. LIGHT MAINLY NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS TO 10 KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AROUND 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH
10K FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW



000
FXUS66 KPDT 190850
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
150 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TODAY AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...ALLOWING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN OREGON FROM A CUTOFF LOW IN NEVADA. I INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUES, OCHOCOS, AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.  COONFIELD


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS PROGGED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY HELPING SHAVE ABOUT 5
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AND SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TWO
STATE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...BRINGING A PROLONGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THIS EVENING WHICH WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND THEN THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  80  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  83  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  82  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  82  48  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  78  42  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  77  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  79  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  82  54  89  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/98/98








000
FXUS66 KPDT 190850
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
150 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TODAY AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...ALLOWING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN OREGON FROM A CUTOFF LOW IN NEVADA. I INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUES, OCHOCOS, AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.  COONFIELD


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS PROGGED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY HELPING SHAVE ABOUT 5
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AND SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TWO
STATE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...BRINGING A PROLONGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THIS EVENING WHICH WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND THEN THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  80  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  83  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  82  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  82  48  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  78  42  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  77  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  79  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  82  54  89  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/98/98








000
FXUS66 KPDT 190850
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
150 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TODAY AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...ALLOWING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN OREGON FROM A CUTOFF LOW IN NEVADA. I INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUES, OCHOCOS, AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.  COONFIELD


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS PROGGED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY HELPING SHAVE ABOUT 5
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AND SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TWO
STATE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...BRINGING A PROLONGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THIS EVENING WHICH WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND THEN THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  80  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  83  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  82  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  82  48  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  78  42  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  77  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  79  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  82  54  89  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/98/98








000
FXUS66 KPDT 190850
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
150 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TODAY AND SATURDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...ALLOWING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
INTO IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN OREGON FROM A CUTOFF LOW IN NEVADA. I INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUES, OCHOCOS, AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.  COONFIELD


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS PROGGED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY HELPING SHAVE ABOUT 5
DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AND SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY MAY ALSO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TWO
STATE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...BRINGING A PROLONGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THIS EVENING WHICH WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND THEN THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS
WHICH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  80  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  83  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  82  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  82  48  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  78  42  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  77  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  79  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  82  54  89  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/98/98








000
FXUS66 KMFR 190329
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
829 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL END AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP GRIDS TO REMOVE ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER 11 PM. WHERE IT DID RAIN OVER THE LAST
24-36 HOURS...PRIMARILY FROM THE CURRY COAST TO JOSEPHINE, COOS
AND DOUGLAS COUNTY...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SOME STRATUS TO LINGER/DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE
ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND UMPQUA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT OR
REMAIN CLEAR. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST IS STILL VALID AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS
BELOW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER INLAND AREAS.
OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THOUGH, EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THEN TONIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR IN AREAS THAT GOT RAIN, PRIMARILY ON THE COAST
AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. EXPECT A MIX
OF MVFR AND IFR IN THESE AREAS ALONG WITH LOCAL LIFR. FOR OTHER
INLAND AREAS EXPECT VFR. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE DO NOT THINK
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY ISOLATED FOG IS LIKELY IN THE UPPER
KLAMATH BASIN...SO HAVE TAKEN FOG OUT OF THE TAF FOR KLMT. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND CLEAR BETWEEN 16-18Z WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. PATCHY SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES HAS
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY TODAY BUT EXPECT SOME CONTINUED AREAS OF
SMOKE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THROUGH
TOMORROW. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 PM PDT THU 18 SEP 2014...LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT. THEN A DEVELOPING THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP TO VERY STEEP
WIND WAVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
WATERS WILL BE AFFECTED BY STEEP SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VERY STEEP SEAS DEVELOPING FROM PORT ORFORD
SOUTH, MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO BEING DOMINATED BY A
MODERATE SWELL DURING THE WEEKEND. THE WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A WEAK FRONT ARRIVES
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THESE FRONT MAY
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. ALSO EXPECT BUILDING SEAS FROM
WESTERLY SWELL BY MID WEEK WHICH MAY BRING SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT TO
THE WATERS. /CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED, THE UPPER TROUGH IS SPLITTING AS IT MOVES
INLAND AS EVIDENCED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE. THE VISIBLE IMAGE
SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS, BUT THEY ARE NOTICEABLY ABSENT IN
THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS, SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. SO FAR LITTLE OR NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND MY
GUT FEELING IS WE PROBABLY WONT SEE MUCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING AND WITH THE COOL
POOL ALOFT MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES, I WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED THERE. WE`LL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF LAKE, NORTHERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHWEST
MODOC COUNTY, BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED, IF THEY HAPPEN AT ALL.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL CAL AND
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS STARTING FRIDAY, THEN HEATING UP OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVES INLAND SATURDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST OREGON.

THE THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH SATURDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OREGON.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SURGE
NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER
THE WESTSIDE. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP INTO
THE MID 90S IN THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENING NEAR 140W SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ACT AS A KICKER PUSHING THE CUTOFF LOW IN
CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA, BUT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE
OR NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST MONDAY
AND SEND A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW, BUT REMAINING DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR 140W TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT. ANOTHER, BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND BRING MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE
COAST AND COAST RANGE.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE REMAINED IN REMARKABLE GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTING NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AND IT`S NO
SURPRISE THE RMOP IS NOW SHOW SHOWING A HIGHER PROBABILITY (21
PERCENT) OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A
LOT, BUT IT`S HIGH GIVEN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS A 168 HOURS OUT
(BASED ON 0Z RUN FROM LAST NIGHT). GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
REASONING, HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD INCREASE IN POPS FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WE`LL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND ONE THAT WILL LEAD TO MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. IN FACT COULD NOT
RULE OUT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS STRONGER FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE MARINE WATERS AND COASTLINE.

THE EC AND GFS DIVERGE AFTER THURSDAY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SPLITS THE TROUGH WITH
RIDGING NUDGING IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS KEEP THE TROUGH OVERHEAD
WITH A CONTINUED COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS
SHOW STRONG RIDGING BUILDING IN THE EASTERN U.S. SO IT`S POSSIBLE
WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUGHING IN THE PAC NW. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO
     11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/MAP/CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 190329
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
829 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL END AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP GRIDS TO REMOVE ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER 11 PM. WHERE IT DID RAIN OVER THE LAST
24-36 HOURS...PRIMARILY FROM THE CURRY COAST TO JOSEPHINE, COOS
AND DOUGLAS COUNTY...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SOME STRATUS TO LINGER/DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE
ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND UMPQUA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT OR
REMAIN CLEAR. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST IS STILL VALID AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS
BELOW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER INLAND AREAS.
OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THOUGH, EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THEN TONIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR IN AREAS THAT GOT RAIN, PRIMARILY ON THE COAST
AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. EXPECT A MIX
OF MVFR AND IFR IN THESE AREAS ALONG WITH LOCAL LIFR. FOR OTHER
INLAND AREAS EXPECT VFR. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE DO NOT THINK
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY ISOLATED FOG IS LIKELY IN THE UPPER
KLAMATH BASIN...SO HAVE TAKEN FOG OUT OF THE TAF FOR KLMT. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND CLEAR BETWEEN 16-18Z WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. PATCHY SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES HAS
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY TODAY BUT EXPECT SOME CONTINUED AREAS OF
SMOKE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THROUGH
TOMORROW. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 PM PDT THU 18 SEP 2014...LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT. THEN A DEVELOPING THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP TO VERY STEEP
WIND WAVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
WATERS WILL BE AFFECTED BY STEEP SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VERY STEEP SEAS DEVELOPING FROM PORT ORFORD
SOUTH, MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO BEING DOMINATED BY A
MODERATE SWELL DURING THE WEEKEND. THE WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A WEAK FRONT ARRIVES
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THESE FRONT MAY
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. ALSO EXPECT BUILDING SEAS FROM
WESTERLY SWELL BY MID WEEK WHICH MAY BRING SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT TO
THE WATERS. /CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED, THE UPPER TROUGH IS SPLITTING AS IT MOVES
INLAND AS EVIDENCED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE. THE VISIBLE IMAGE
SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS, BUT THEY ARE NOTICEABLY ABSENT IN
THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS, SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. SO FAR LITTLE OR NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND MY
GUT FEELING IS WE PROBABLY WONT SEE MUCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING AND WITH THE COOL
POOL ALOFT MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES, I WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED THERE. WE`LL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF LAKE, NORTHERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHWEST
MODOC COUNTY, BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED, IF THEY HAPPEN AT ALL.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL CAL AND
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS STARTING FRIDAY, THEN HEATING UP OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVES INLAND SATURDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST OREGON.

THE THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH SATURDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OREGON.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SURGE
NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER
THE WESTSIDE. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP INTO
THE MID 90S IN THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENING NEAR 140W SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ACT AS A KICKER PUSHING THE CUTOFF LOW IN
CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA, BUT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE
OR NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST MONDAY
AND SEND A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW, BUT REMAINING DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR 140W TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT. ANOTHER, BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND BRING MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE
COAST AND COAST RANGE.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE REMAINED IN REMARKABLE GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTING NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AND IT`S NO
SURPRISE THE RMOP IS NOW SHOW SHOWING A HIGHER PROBABILITY (21
PERCENT) OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A
LOT, BUT IT`S HIGH GIVEN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS A 168 HOURS OUT
(BASED ON 0Z RUN FROM LAST NIGHT). GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
REASONING, HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD INCREASE IN POPS FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WE`LL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND ONE THAT WILL LEAD TO MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. IN FACT COULD NOT
RULE OUT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS STRONGER FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE MARINE WATERS AND COASTLINE.

THE EC AND GFS DIVERGE AFTER THURSDAY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SPLITS THE TROUGH WITH
RIDGING NUDGING IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS KEEP THE TROUGH OVERHEAD
WITH A CONTINUED COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS
SHOW STRONG RIDGING BUILDING IN THE EASTERN U.S. SO IT`S POSSIBLE
WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUGHING IN THE PAC NW. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO
     11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/MAP/CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 190329
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
829 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL END AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP GRIDS TO REMOVE ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER 11 PM. WHERE IT DID RAIN OVER THE LAST
24-36 HOURS...PRIMARILY FROM THE CURRY COAST TO JOSEPHINE, COOS
AND DOUGLAS COUNTY...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SOME STRATUS TO LINGER/DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE
ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND UMPQUA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT OR
REMAIN CLEAR. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST IS STILL VALID AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS
BELOW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER INLAND AREAS.
OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THOUGH, EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THEN TONIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR IN AREAS THAT GOT RAIN, PRIMARILY ON THE COAST
AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. EXPECT A MIX
OF MVFR AND IFR IN THESE AREAS ALONG WITH LOCAL LIFR. FOR OTHER
INLAND AREAS EXPECT VFR. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE DO NOT THINK
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY ISOLATED FOG IS LIKELY IN THE UPPER
KLAMATH BASIN...SO HAVE TAKEN FOG OUT OF THE TAF FOR KLMT. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND CLEAR BETWEEN 16-18Z WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. PATCHY SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES HAS
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY TODAY BUT EXPECT SOME CONTINUED AREAS OF
SMOKE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THROUGH
TOMORROW. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 PM PDT THU 18 SEP 2014...LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT. THEN A DEVELOPING THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP TO VERY STEEP
WIND WAVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
WATERS WILL BE AFFECTED BY STEEP SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VERY STEEP SEAS DEVELOPING FROM PORT ORFORD
SOUTH, MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO BEING DOMINATED BY A
MODERATE SWELL DURING THE WEEKEND. THE WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A WEAK FRONT ARRIVES
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THESE FRONT MAY
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. ALSO EXPECT BUILDING SEAS FROM
WESTERLY SWELL BY MID WEEK WHICH MAY BRING SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT TO
THE WATERS. /CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED, THE UPPER TROUGH IS SPLITTING AS IT MOVES
INLAND AS EVIDENCED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE. THE VISIBLE IMAGE
SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS, BUT THEY ARE NOTICEABLY ABSENT IN
THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS, SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. SO FAR LITTLE OR NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND MY
GUT FEELING IS WE PROBABLY WONT SEE MUCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING AND WITH THE COOL
POOL ALOFT MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES, I WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED THERE. WE`LL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF LAKE, NORTHERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHWEST
MODOC COUNTY, BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED, IF THEY HAPPEN AT ALL.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL CAL AND
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS STARTING FRIDAY, THEN HEATING UP OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVES INLAND SATURDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST OREGON.

THE THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH SATURDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OREGON.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SURGE
NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER
THE WESTSIDE. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP INTO
THE MID 90S IN THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENING NEAR 140W SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ACT AS A KICKER PUSHING THE CUTOFF LOW IN
CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA, BUT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE
OR NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST MONDAY
AND SEND A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW, BUT REMAINING DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR 140W TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT. ANOTHER, BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND BRING MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE
COAST AND COAST RANGE.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE REMAINED IN REMARKABLE GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTING NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AND IT`S NO
SURPRISE THE RMOP IS NOW SHOW SHOWING A HIGHER PROBABILITY (21
PERCENT) OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A
LOT, BUT IT`S HIGH GIVEN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS A 168 HOURS OUT
(BASED ON 0Z RUN FROM LAST NIGHT). GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
REASONING, HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD INCREASE IN POPS FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WE`LL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND ONE THAT WILL LEAD TO MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. IN FACT COULD NOT
RULE OUT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS STRONGER FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE MARINE WATERS AND COASTLINE.

THE EC AND GFS DIVERGE AFTER THURSDAY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SPLITS THE TROUGH WITH
RIDGING NUDGING IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS KEEP THE TROUGH OVERHEAD
WITH A CONTINUED COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS
SHOW STRONG RIDGING BUILDING IN THE EASTERN U.S. SO IT`S POSSIBLE
WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUGHING IN THE PAC NW. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO
     11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/MAP/CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 190329
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
829 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL END AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP GRIDS TO REMOVE ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER 11 PM. WHERE IT DID RAIN OVER THE LAST
24-36 HOURS...PRIMARILY FROM THE CURRY COAST TO JOSEPHINE, COOS
AND DOUGLAS COUNTY...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SOME STRATUS TO LINGER/DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE
ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND UMPQUA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT OR
REMAIN CLEAR. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST IS STILL VALID AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS
BELOW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER INLAND AREAS.
OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THOUGH, EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THEN TONIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR IN AREAS THAT GOT RAIN, PRIMARILY ON THE COAST
AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. EXPECT A MIX
OF MVFR AND IFR IN THESE AREAS ALONG WITH LOCAL LIFR. FOR OTHER
INLAND AREAS EXPECT VFR. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE DO NOT THINK
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY ISOLATED FOG IS LIKELY IN THE UPPER
KLAMATH BASIN...SO HAVE TAKEN FOG OUT OF THE TAF FOR KLMT. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND CLEAR BETWEEN 16-18Z WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. PATCHY SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES HAS
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY TODAY BUT EXPECT SOME CONTINUED AREAS OF
SMOKE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THROUGH
TOMORROW. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 PM PDT THU 18 SEP 2014...LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT. THEN A DEVELOPING THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP TO VERY STEEP
WIND WAVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
WATERS WILL BE AFFECTED BY STEEP SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VERY STEEP SEAS DEVELOPING FROM PORT ORFORD
SOUTH, MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO BEING DOMINATED BY A
MODERATE SWELL DURING THE WEEKEND. THE WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A WEAK FRONT ARRIVES
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THESE FRONT MAY
BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. ALSO EXPECT BUILDING SEAS FROM
WESTERLY SWELL BY MID WEEK WHICH MAY BRING SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT TO
THE WATERS. /CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED, THE UPPER TROUGH IS SPLITTING AS IT MOVES
INLAND AS EVIDENCED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE. THE VISIBLE IMAGE
SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS, BUT THEY ARE NOTICEABLY ABSENT IN
THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS, SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. SO FAR LITTLE OR NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND MY
GUT FEELING IS WE PROBABLY WONT SEE MUCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING AND WITH THE COOL
POOL ALOFT MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES, I WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED THERE. WE`LL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF LAKE, NORTHERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHWEST
MODOC COUNTY, BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED, IF THEY HAPPEN AT ALL.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL CAL AND
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS STARTING FRIDAY, THEN HEATING UP OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVES INLAND SATURDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST OREGON.

THE THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH SATURDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OREGON.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SURGE
NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER
THE WESTSIDE. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP INTO
THE MID 90S IN THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENING NEAR 140W SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ACT AS A KICKER PUSHING THE CUTOFF LOW IN
CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA, BUT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE
OR NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST MONDAY
AND SEND A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW, BUT REMAINING DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR 140W TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT. ANOTHER, BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND BRING MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE
COAST AND COAST RANGE.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE REMAINED IN REMARKABLE GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTING NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AND IT`S NO
SURPRISE THE RMOP IS NOW SHOW SHOWING A HIGHER PROBABILITY (21
PERCENT) OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A
LOT, BUT IT`S HIGH GIVEN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS A 168 HOURS OUT
(BASED ON 0Z RUN FROM LAST NIGHT). GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
REASONING, HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD INCREASE IN POPS FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WE`LL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND ONE THAT WILL LEAD TO MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. IN FACT COULD NOT
RULE OUT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS STRONGER FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE MARINE WATERS AND COASTLINE.

THE EC AND GFS DIVERGE AFTER THURSDAY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SPLITS THE TROUGH WITH
RIDGING NUDGING IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS KEEP THE TROUGH OVERHEAD
WITH A CONTINUED COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS
SHOW STRONG RIDGING BUILDING IN THE EASTERN U.S. SO IT`S POSSIBLE
WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUGHING IN THE PAC NW. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO
     11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/MAP/CC







000
FXUS66 KPQR 190305
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
803 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. BUT EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW
OREGON COAST ON FRI WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS A DYING
FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON. THEN DRY AND WARM WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FOR
THIS WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND WESTERLY FLOW PUNCHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
ABOUND. A LOOP OF DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES. BUT MAY STILL HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND...SO WILL LEAVE 20 PCT PROBABILITY FOR TONIGHT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH CLEAR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO FRI AM.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD
COVER.A WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON MIDDAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
PRIMARILY THE COAST. MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT EVEN A
TENTH OF AN INCH APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH. AS A RESULT... AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PAST 06Z. KONP AND AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST HOWEVER
MAY SEE LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z... AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z FRI. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE REST OF NW OREGON AGAIN LATER TONIGHT
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...MOST LIKELY AT THE N AND W TAF SITES. AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY FRI MORNING EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO BE
SHORT LIVED WITH MOST AREAS GOING TO VFR BY 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BETWEEN
10Z AND 13Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z FRI.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A
MIX OF A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT SAT IN THE STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 190305
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
803 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. BUT EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW
OREGON COAST ON FRI WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS A DYING
FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON. THEN DRY AND WARM WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FOR
THIS WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND WESTERLY FLOW PUNCHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
ABOUND. A LOOP OF DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES. BUT MAY STILL HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND...SO WILL LEAVE 20 PCT PROBABILITY FOR TONIGHT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH CLEAR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO FRI AM.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD
COVER.A WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON MIDDAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
PRIMARILY THE COAST. MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT EVEN A
TENTH OF AN INCH APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH. AS A RESULT... AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PAST 06Z. KONP AND AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST HOWEVER
MAY SEE LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z... AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z FRI. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE REST OF NW OREGON AGAIN LATER TONIGHT
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...MOST LIKELY AT THE N AND W TAF SITES. AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY FRI MORNING EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO BE
SHORT LIVED WITH MOST AREAS GOING TO VFR BY 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BETWEEN
10Z AND 13Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z FRI.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A
MIX OF A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT SAT IN THE STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 190305
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
803 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. BUT EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NW
OREGON COAST ON FRI WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS A DYING
FRONT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON. THEN DRY AND WARM WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FOR
THIS WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND WESTERLY FLOW PUNCHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
ABOUND. A LOOP OF DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES. BUT MAY STILL HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND...SO WILL LEAVE 20 PCT PROBABILITY FOR TONIGHT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH CLEAR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO FRI AM.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD
COVER.A WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON MIDDAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
PRIMARILY THE COAST. MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT EVEN A
TENTH OF AN INCH APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS REST OF REGION SUNDAY EVENING.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...BUT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH. AS A RESULT... AT
LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PAST 06Z. KONP AND AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST HOWEVER
MAY SEE LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z... AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z FRI. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE REST OF NW OREGON AGAIN LATER TONIGHT
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...MOST LIKELY AT THE N AND W TAF SITES. AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY FRI MORNING EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO BE
SHORT LIVED WITH MOST AREAS GOING TO VFR BY 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BETWEEN
10Z AND 13Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z FRI.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A
MIX OF A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT SAT IN THE STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 190232
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
832 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TO OUR
NORTH IS PASSING BY THIS EVENING...EVEN AS THE LARGER UPPER LOW IS
PULLING AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND BECOMING A CUT OFF SYSTEM BY
TOMORROW. THIS LEAVES US IN A BIT OF A HOLE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED
EARLIER. ONE STORM FORMED IN EAST MALHEUR COUNTY BUT DISSIPATED AS
IT MOVED INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY MORE
CONVECTION IN THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THE FORECAST HAS THIS TREND
HANDLED WELL. ALSO...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SMOKE SHOULD LESSEN OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
LEFTOVER SMOKE. NO UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AREAS
OF SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT DUE TO WILD FIRES IN CALIFORNIA...WITH LOCAL
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. SURFACE WINDS
VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN SERN
OWYHEE COUNTY AND THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY...MOVING NEWD. AIR MASS IS
STILL UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN ERN OREGON...
OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...CAMAS PRAIRIE...AND ERN BOISE COUNTY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS. SCATTERED COVERAGE
IN THE SRN SAWTOOTHS WHERE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE. AIR MASS
WILL DRY AND STABILIZE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. EXTENSIVE SMOKE FROM FIRES IN CALIF SHOULD
DECREASE IN OUR CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER WINDS VEER FROM
SWLY TO MORE WESTERLY. BUT THERE ARE ALSO FIRES IN OREGON AND SOME
SMOKE WILL CONTINUE IN OUR CWA. DECREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL FURTHER THAN LAST NIGHT. MAXS FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY. MINS FRIDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY 3 TO 6 DEGS WARMER WITH UPPER WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY...AS UPPER LOW IN
CALIFORNIA COMES TOWARD US. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WOULD BE BEST FOR
RIDDING OUR CWA OF REMAINING SMOKE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT
WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY REACHING SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ACROSS MOST THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL REACH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE PLUS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/DD



000
FXUS65 KBOI 190232
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
832 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TO OUR
NORTH IS PASSING BY THIS EVENING...EVEN AS THE LARGER UPPER LOW IS
PULLING AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND BECOMING A CUT OFF SYSTEM BY
TOMORROW. THIS LEAVES US IN A BIT OF A HOLE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED
EARLIER. ONE STORM FORMED IN EAST MALHEUR COUNTY BUT DISSIPATED AS
IT MOVED INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY MORE
CONVECTION IN THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THE FORECAST HAS THIS TREND
HANDLED WELL. ALSO...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SMOKE SHOULD LESSEN OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
LEFTOVER SMOKE. NO UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AREAS
OF SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT DUE TO WILD FIRES IN CALIFORNIA...WITH LOCAL
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. SURFACE WINDS
VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN SERN
OWYHEE COUNTY AND THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY...MOVING NEWD. AIR MASS IS
STILL UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN ERN OREGON...
OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...CAMAS PRAIRIE...AND ERN BOISE COUNTY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS. SCATTERED COVERAGE
IN THE SRN SAWTOOTHS WHERE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE. AIR MASS
WILL DRY AND STABILIZE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. EXTENSIVE SMOKE FROM FIRES IN CALIF SHOULD
DECREASE IN OUR CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER WINDS VEER FROM
SWLY TO MORE WESTERLY. BUT THERE ARE ALSO FIRES IN OREGON AND SOME
SMOKE WILL CONTINUE IN OUR CWA. DECREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL FURTHER THAN LAST NIGHT. MAXS FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY. MINS FRIDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY 3 TO 6 DEGS WARMER WITH UPPER WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY...AS UPPER LOW IN
CALIFORNIA COMES TOWARD US. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WOULD BE BEST FOR
RIDDING OUR CWA OF REMAINING SMOKE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT
WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY REACHING SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ACROSS MOST THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL REACH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE PLUS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/DD




000
FXUS66 KPDT 190210
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
710 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY SHOWERS LEFT
ARE JUST A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES OVER WALLOWA COUNTY ON THE
RADAR...AND THESE ARE PROBABLY NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE COMMON NOW ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WHICH MAY HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT ARE ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE SOME MOISTURE MAY
SPILL OVER THE CREST ONTO THE EAST SLOPES. UPDATED THE FORECAST AND
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME
STRONGER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OVER
THE CWA. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE CWA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND THEN THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AND BECOME LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS WHICH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 201 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN THE
COAST TONIGHT.  MARGINAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BEFORE 8 PM ALONG CENTRAL
OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  SPLIT FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THEREAFTER AND EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AND SPILL OVER SHOWERS ALONG
THE CASCADES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL STILL BE A BIT BREEZY THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.  BY TOMORROW DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AS WELL.  THIS MAY BE THE LAST WEEKEND OF THIS HOT
SUMMERLIKE WEATHER AS THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CHANGES COMING IN THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

LONG TERM...FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. THE TROUGH WILL SEND A SACRIFICIAL COLD
FRONT AGAINST THE RIDGE LATE MONDAY SPREADING CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END FOR THE RIDGE AS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEN
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE FIRST
GOOD FALL PRECIPITATION EVENT TO THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS BRING
BACK THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  78  53  84 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  61  79  59  86 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  57  82  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  56  79  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  55  81  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  57  78  50  84 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  43  76  43  84 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  51  76  47  84 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  49  76  48  86 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  58  80  56  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/91/88








000
FXUS66 KPDT 190210
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
710 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY SHOWERS LEFT
ARE JUST A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES OVER WALLOWA COUNTY ON THE
RADAR...AND THESE ARE PROBABLY NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE COMMON NOW ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WHICH MAY HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT ARE ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE SOME MOISTURE MAY
SPILL OVER THE CREST ONTO THE EAST SLOPES. UPDATED THE FORECAST AND
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME
STRONGER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OVER
THE CWA. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TO THE CWA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND THEN THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AND BECOME LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS WHICH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 201 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN THE
COAST TONIGHT.  MARGINAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BEFORE 8 PM ALONG CENTRAL
OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  SPLIT FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THEREAFTER AND EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AND SPILL OVER SHOWERS ALONG
THE CASCADES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL STILL BE A BIT BREEZY THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.  BY TOMORROW DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AS WELL.  THIS MAY BE THE LAST WEEKEND OF THIS HOT
SUMMERLIKE WEATHER AS THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CHANGES COMING IN THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

LONG TERM...FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. THE TROUGH WILL SEND A SACRIFICIAL COLD
FRONT AGAINST THE RIDGE LATE MONDAY SPREADING CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END FOR THE RIDGE AS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEN
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE FIRST
GOOD FALL PRECIPITATION EVENT TO THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS BRING
BACK THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  78  53  84 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  61  79  59  86 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  57  82  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  56  79  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  55  81  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  57  78  50  84 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  43  76  43  84 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  51  76  47  84 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  49  76  48  86 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  58  80  56  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/91/88









000
FXUS66 KPQR 182203
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
301 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NORTH OREGON
COAST ON FRIDAY WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
RETURN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS THE REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND WESTERLY FLOW PUNCHING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES ABOUND. A LOOP OF DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN A HUNDREDTH AND FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH WITH A COUPLE LOCATIONS NOT EVEN MEASURING. FORTUNATELY...A FEW
AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN OUT
OF THIS STORM...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WILLAPA HILLS...AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES...BUT ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE MINIMAL.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD
COVER.A WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON MIDDAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
PRIMARILY THE COAST. MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT EVEN A
TENTH OF AN INCH APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...ALBEIT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH. AS A
RESULT...AT LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES IF THEY
ARE NOT CONTAINED. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER NW OREGON
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE OVERALL TREND OF RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. TRENDS EXPECTED TO REVERSE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES...AND MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING THROUGH 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 16Z FRI.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH A MIX
OF A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT SAT IN THE STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 182203
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
301 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NORTH OREGON
COAST ON FRIDAY WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
RETURN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS THE REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND WESTERLY FLOW PUNCHING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES ABOUND. A LOOP OF DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN A HUNDREDTH AND FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH WITH A COUPLE LOCATIONS NOT EVEN MEASURING. FORTUNATELY...A FEW
AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN OUT
OF THIS STORM...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WILLAPA HILLS...AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES...BUT ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE MINIMAL.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD
COVER.A WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON MIDDAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
PRIMARILY THE COAST. MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT EVEN A
TENTH OF AN INCH APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...ALBEIT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH. AS A
RESULT...AT LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES IF THEY
ARE NOT CONTAINED. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER NW OREGON
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE OVERALL TREND OF RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. TRENDS EXPECTED TO REVERSE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES...AND MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING THROUGH 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 16Z FRI.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH A MIX
OF A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT SAT IN THE STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 182203
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
301 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE EXTREME NORTH OREGON
COAST ON FRIDAY WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS A DYING FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
RETURN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS THE REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND WESTERLY FLOW PUNCHING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST...MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES ABOUND. A LOOP OF DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN A HUNDREDTH AND FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH WITH A COUPLE LOCATIONS NOT EVEN MEASURING. FORTUNATELY...A FEW
AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN OUT
OF THIS STORM...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WILLAPA HILLS...AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES...BUT ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE MINIMAL.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD
COVER.A WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON MIDDAY FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
PRIMARILY THE COAST. MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT EVEN A
TENTH OF AN INCH APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. EUGENE WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO ADD TO THEIR RECORD 35
DAYS OF 90F OR PLUS OR HIGHER IN 2014. AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TO OFF WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COOLER MARINE
AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW.

EAST WINDS SATURDAY AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH...ALBEIT NOT LIKELY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH. AS A
RESULT...AT LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES IF THEY
ARE NOT CONTAINED. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN
THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER NW OREGON
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE OVERALL TREND OF RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. TRENDS EXPECTED TO REVERSE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES...AND MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING THROUGH 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 10Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 16Z FRI.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A
SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH A MIX
OF A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT SAT IN THE STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 182150
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
250 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED, THE UPPER TROUGH IS SPLITTING AS IT MOVES
INLAND AS EVIDENCED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE. THE VISIBLE IMAGE
SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS, BUT THEY ARE NOTICEABLY ABSENT IN
THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS, SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. SO FAR LITTLE OR NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND MY
GUT FEELING IS WE PROBABLY WONT SEE MUCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING AND WITH THE COOL
POOL ALOFT MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES, I WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED THERE. WE`LL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF LAKE, NORTHERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHWEST
MODOC COUNTY, BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED, IF THEY HAPPEN AT ALL.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL CAL AND
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS STARTING FRIDAY, THEN HEATING UP OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVES INLAND SATURDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST OREGON.

THE THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH SATURDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OREGON.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SURGE
NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER
THE WESTSIDE. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP INTO
THE MID 90S IN THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENING NEAR 140W SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ACT AS A KICKER PUSHING THE CUTOFF LOW IN
CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA, BUT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE
OR NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST MONDAY
AND SEND A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW, BUT REMAINING DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR 140W TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT. ANOTHER, BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND BRING MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE
COAST AND COAST RANGE.

THE EC AND GFS HAVE REMAINED IN REMARKABLE GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTING NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE EC AND GFS HAVE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AND IT`S NO
SURPRISE THE RMOP IS NOW SHOW SHOWING A HIGHER PROBABILITY (21
PERCENT) OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A
LOT, BUT IT`S HIGH GIVEN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS A 168 HOURS OUT
(BASED ON 0Z RUN FROM LAST NIGHT). GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
REASONING, HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD INCREASE IN POPS FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WE`LL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND ONE THAT WILL LEAD TO MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. IN FACT COULD NOT
RULE OUT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS STRONGER FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE MARINE WATERS AND COASTLINE.

THE EC AND GFS DIVERGE AFTER THURSDAY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SPLITS THE TROUGH WITH
RIDGING NUDGING IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS KEEP THE TROUGH OVERHEAD
WITH A CONTINUED COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS
SHOW STRONG RIDGING BUILDING IN THE EASTERN U.S. SO IT`S POSSIBLE
WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUGHING IN THE PAC NW. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 18/18Z TAF CYCLE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY OVER MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES.
SOME PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT, THOUGH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, AND ISOLATED IFR IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR IN AREAS THAT GOT
APPRECIABLE RAIN, PRIMARILY ON THE WEST SIDE ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST RANGE AND UMPQUA BASIN- THOUGH SOME FOG IS LIKELY IN THE UPPER
KLAMATH BASIN. EXPECT THIS TO BE A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR WITH LOCAL
LIFR. SMOKE PRODUCTION FROM AREA WILDFIRES WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS AND HIGHER
HUMIDITIES. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900AM PDT THU 18 SEP 2014...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. A DEVELOPING
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP WIND
WAVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO BEING
DOMINATED BY A MODERATE SWELL DURING THE WEEKEND. THE WEAKER
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO
     11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$





000
FXUS65 KBOI 182108
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
308 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

...INCLUDED AIR STAGNATION SEGMENT...

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN SERN
OWYHEE COUNTY AND THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY...MOVING NEWD.  AIR MASS IS
STILL UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN ERN OREGON...
OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...CAMAS PRAIRIE...AND ERN BOISE COUNTY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS.  SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE SRN SAWTOOTHS WHERE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE.
AIR MASS WILL DRY AND STABILIZE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY.  EXTENSIVE SMOKE FROM FIRES IN CALIF
SHOULD DECREASE IN OUR CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER WINDS
VEER FROM SWLY TO MORE WESTERLY.  BUT THERE ARE ALSO FIRES IN
OREGON AND SOME SMOKE WILL CONTINUE IN OUR CWA.  DECREASING CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL FURTHER THAN LAST NIGHT.  MAXS
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.  MINS FRIDAY NIGHT
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT.  MAX TEMPS SATURDAY 3 TO 6 DEGS WARMER WITH
UPPER WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY...AS UPPER LOW
IN CALIFORNIA COMES TOWARD US.  SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WOULD BE BEST
FOR RIDDING OUR CWA OF REMAINING SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT
WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY REACHING SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ACROSS MOST THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL REACH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE PLUS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WIDESPREAD SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT...PLUS LOCAL MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE VALLEYS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SMOKE SHIFTING
SOUTH OF A KREO-KMUO-FAIRFIELD LINE. ALSO EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF KMUO UNTIL ABOUT
06Z. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT WESTERLY 10-15
KTS THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KBOI. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST 15-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...SMOKE FROM CALIFORNIA FIRES SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS UPPER WINDS CHANGE FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY.  BUT FIRES IN OREGON WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE
SOME SMOKE.  ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE IN FROM NEVADA.  CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO OUR AREA AND GREATLY
IMPROVE AIR QUALITY.

$$

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/DD
AVIATION.....JT
AIR QUALITY..LC



000
FXUS65 KBOI 182108
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
308 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

...INCLUDED AIR STAGNATION SEGMENT...

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN SERN
OWYHEE COUNTY AND THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY...MOVING NEWD.  AIR MASS IS
STILL UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN ERN OREGON...
OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...CAMAS PRAIRIE...AND ERN BOISE COUNTY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS.  SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE SRN SAWTOOTHS WHERE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE.
AIR MASS WILL DRY AND STABILIZE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY.  EXTENSIVE SMOKE FROM FIRES IN CALIF
SHOULD DECREASE IN OUR CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER WINDS
VEER FROM SWLY TO MORE WESTERLY.  BUT THERE ARE ALSO FIRES IN
OREGON AND SOME SMOKE WILL CONTINUE IN OUR CWA.  DECREASING CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL FURTHER THAN LAST NIGHT.  MAXS
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.  MINS FRIDAY NIGHT
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT.  MAX TEMPS SATURDAY 3 TO 6 DEGS WARMER WITH
UPPER WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY...AS UPPER LOW
IN CALIFORNIA COMES TOWARD US.  SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WOULD BE BEST
FOR RIDDING OUR CWA OF REMAINING SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT
WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY REACHING SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ACROSS MOST THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL REACH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE PLUS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WIDESPREAD SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT...PLUS LOCAL MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE VALLEYS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SMOKE SHIFTING
SOUTH OF A KREO-KMUO-FAIRFIELD LINE. ALSO EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF KMUO UNTIL ABOUT
06Z. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT WESTERLY 10-15
KTS THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KBOI. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST 15-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...SMOKE FROM CALIFORNIA FIRES SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS UPPER WINDS CHANGE FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY.  BUT FIRES IN OREGON WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE
SOME SMOKE.  ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE IN FROM NEVADA.  CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO OUR AREA AND GREATLY
IMPROVE AIR QUALITY.

$$

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/DD
AVIATION.....JT
AIR QUALITY..LC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 182102
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
302 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN SERN
OWYHEE COUNTY AND THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY...MOVING NEWD.  AIR MASS IS
STILL UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN ERN OREGON...
OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...CAMAS PRAIRIE...AND ERN BOISE COUNTY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS.  SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE SRN SAWTOOTHS WHERE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE.
AIR MASS WILL DRY AND STABILIZE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY.  EXTENSIVE SMOKE FROM FIRES IN CALIF
SHOULD DECREASE IN OUR CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER WINDS
VEER FROM SWLY TO MORE WESTERLY.  BUT THERE ARE ALSO FIRES IN
OREGON AND SOME SMOKE WILL CONTINUE IN OUR CWA.  DECREASING CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL FURTHER THAN LAST NIGHT.  MAXS
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.  MINS FRIDAY NIGHT
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT.  MAX TEMPS SATURDAY 3 TO 6 DEGS WARMER WITH
UPPER WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY...AS UPPER LOW
IN CALIFORNIA COMES TOWARD US.  SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WOULD BE BEST
FOR RIDDING OUR CWA OF REMAINING SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT
WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY REACHING SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ACROSS MOST THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL REACH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE PLUS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WIDESPREAD SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT...PLUS LOCAL MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE VALLEYS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SMOKE SHIFTING
SOUTH OF A KREO-KMUO-FAIRFIELD LINE. ALSO EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF KMUO UNTIL ABOUT
06Z. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT WESTERLY 10-15
KTS THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KBOI. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST 15-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

$$

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/DD
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 182102
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
302 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN SERN
OWYHEE COUNTY AND THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY...MOVING NEWD.  AIR MASS IS
STILL UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN ERN OREGON...
OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...CAMAS PRAIRIE...AND ERN BOISE COUNTY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS.  SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE SRN SAWTOOTHS WHERE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE.
AIR MASS WILL DRY AND STABILIZE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY.  EXTENSIVE SMOKE FROM FIRES IN CALIF
SHOULD DECREASE IN OUR CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER WINDS
VEER FROM SWLY TO MORE WESTERLY.  BUT THERE ARE ALSO FIRES IN
OREGON AND SOME SMOKE WILL CONTINUE IN OUR CWA.  DECREASING CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL FURTHER THAN LAST NIGHT.  MAXS
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.  MINS FRIDAY NIGHT
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT.  MAX TEMPS SATURDAY 3 TO 6 DEGS WARMER WITH
UPPER WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY...AS UPPER LOW
IN CALIFORNIA COMES TOWARD US.  SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WOULD BE BEST
FOR RIDDING OUR CWA OF REMAINING SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT
WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY REACHING SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ACROSS MOST THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL REACH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE PLUS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WIDESPREAD SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT...PLUS LOCAL MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE VALLEYS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SMOKE SHIFTING
SOUTH OF A KREO-KMUO-FAIRFIELD LINE. ALSO EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF KMUO UNTIL ABOUT
06Z. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT WESTERLY 10-15
KTS THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KBOI. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST 15-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

$$

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/DD
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS66 KPDT 182101
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
201 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN THE
COAST TONIGHT.  MARGINAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BEFORE 8 PM ALONG CENTRAL
OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  SPLIT FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THEREAFTER AND EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AND SPILL OVER SHOWERS ALONG
THE CASCADES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL STILL BE A BIT BREEZY THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.  BY TOMORROW DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AS WELL.  THIS MAY BE THE LAST WEEKEND OF THIS HOT
SUMMERLIKE WEATHER AS THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CHANGES COMING IN THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

.LONG TERM...FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. THE TROUGH WILL SEND A SACRIFICIAL COLD
FRONT AGAINST THE RIDGE LATE MONDAY SPREADING CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END FOR THE RIDGE AS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEN
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE FIRST
GOOD FALL PRECIPITATION EVENT TO THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS BRING
BACK THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  78  53  84 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  61  79  59  86 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  57  82  54  87 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  56  79  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  55  81  51  86 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  57  78  50  84 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  43  76  43  84 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  51  76  47  84 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  49  76  48  86 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  58  80  56  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/91/91








000
FXUS66 KPDT 182101
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
201 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN THE
COAST TONIGHT.  MARGINAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BEFORE 8 PM ALONG CENTRAL
OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  SPLIT FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THEREAFTER AND EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AND SPILL OVER SHOWERS ALONG
THE CASCADES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL STILL BE A BIT BREEZY THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.  BY TOMORROW DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AS WELL.  THIS MAY BE THE LAST WEEKEND OF THIS HOT
SUMMERLIKE WEATHER AS THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CHANGES COMING IN THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

.LONG TERM...FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. THE TROUGH WILL SEND A SACRIFICIAL COLD
FRONT AGAINST THE RIDGE LATE MONDAY SPREADING CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END FOR THE RIDGE AS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEN
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE FIRST
GOOD FALL PRECIPITATION EVENT TO THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS BRING
BACK THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  78  53  84 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  61  79  59  86 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  57  82  54  87 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  56  79  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  55  81  51  86 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  57  78  50  84 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  43  76  43  84 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  51  76  47  84 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  49  76  48  86 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  58  80  56  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/91/91








000
FXUS66 KPDT 182101
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
201 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN THE
COAST TONIGHT.  MARGINAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BEFORE 8 PM ALONG CENTRAL
OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  SPLIT FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THEREAFTER AND EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AND SPILL OVER SHOWERS ALONG
THE CASCADES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL STILL BE A BIT BREEZY THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.  BY TOMORROW DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AS WELL.  THIS MAY BE THE LAST WEEKEND OF THIS HOT
SUMMERLIKE WEATHER AS THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CHANGES COMING IN THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

.LONG TERM...FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. THE TROUGH WILL SEND A SACRIFICIAL COLD
FRONT AGAINST THE RIDGE LATE MONDAY SPREADING CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END FOR THE RIDGE AS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEN
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE FIRST
GOOD FALL PRECIPITATION EVENT TO THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS BRING
BACK THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  78  53  84 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  61  79  59  86 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  57  82  54  87 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  56  79  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  55  81  51  86 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  57  78  50  84 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  43  76  43  84 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  51  76  47  84 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  49  76  48  86 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  58  80  56  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/91/91








000
FXUS66 KPDT 182101
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
201 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN THE
COAST TONIGHT.  MARGINAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BEFORE 8 PM ALONG CENTRAL
OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  SPLIT FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THEREAFTER AND EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AND SPILL OVER SHOWERS ALONG
THE CASCADES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL STILL BE A BIT BREEZY THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.  BY TOMORROW DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AS WELL.  THIS MAY BE THE LAST WEEKEND OF THIS HOT
SUMMERLIKE WEATHER AS THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME CHANGES COMING IN THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

.LONG TERM...FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. THE TROUGH WILL SEND A SACRIFICIAL COLD
FRONT AGAINST THE RIDGE LATE MONDAY SPREADING CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END FOR THE RIDGE AS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEN
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE FIRST
GOOD FALL PRECIPITATION EVENT TO THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS BRING
BACK THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  78  53  84 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  61  79  59  86 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  57  82  54  87 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  56  79  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  55  81  51  86 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  57  78  50  84 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  43  76  43  84 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  51  76  47  84 /  10  10   0   0
GCD  49  76  48  86 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  58  80  56  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/91/91








000
FXUS66 KMFR 181950
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1245 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS WERE CONFINED TO THE COAST RANGE. THE BIG WINNER WAS
RED MOUND WHERE 0.82 OF AN INCH FELL, NEXT WAS QUAIL PRAIRIE WITH
0.68 AND FLYNN PRAIRIE WITH 0.63. LESSER AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WITH ANYWHERE BETWEEN 0.10-0.16 OF AN
INCH.

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS
HIGHER FOR THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED CENTRAL CURRY
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE MODELS
(IN PARTICULAR THE NAM) SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE DON`T GET ANY STORMS THERE DUE IN
PART THAT WE`LL HAVE SOME WARNING ALOFT AS THE COOL POOL ALOFT MOVES
EAST OF THE CASCADES. EAST OF THE CASCADES STAND THE BEST CHANCE
OF GETTING A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. -PETRUCELLI



&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 18/18Z TAF CYCLE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY OVER MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES.
SOME PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT, THOUGH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, AND ISOLATED IFR IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR IN AREAS THAT GOT
APPRECIABLE RAIN, PRIMARILY ON THE WEST SIDE ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST RANGE AND UMPQUA BASIN- THOUGH SOME FOG IS LIKELY IN THE UPPER
KLAMATH BASIN. EXPECT THIS TO BE A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR WITH LOCAL
LIFR. SMOKE PRODUCTION FROM AREA WILDFIRES WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS AND HIGHER
HUMIDITIES. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900AM PDT THU 18 SEP 2014...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. A DEVELOPING
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP WIND
WAVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO BEING
DOMINATED BY A MODERATE SWELL DURING THE WEEKEND. THE WEAKER
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BTL


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...A QUICK LOOK AT THE LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATION
NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM,
RANGING FROM A TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO 0.20
INCHES, WITH THE LARGER AMOUNTS FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON, WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND THE CASCADES. THIS
RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP WITH WILDFIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS
IN THE AREA, BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PUT AN END TO FIRE
ACTIVITY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE MADE A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE LONG TERM, BUT
MORE ON THAT LATER.

TODAY, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA. OTHER
FACTORS TO INCLUDE IN CONSIDERATION WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INFLOW, WHICH WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITABLE WATERS
OF ROUGHLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES, AND THE INFLUENCES OF THE JET STREAM,
WHICH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE LIFT OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO,
THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT CHANCE
TO LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY,
AND BUMPED UP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE PRODUCING INSTABILITY, NAMELY THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF OREGON
INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND THE CASCADES AND ALL AREAS EAST.
THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING, COINCIDING WITH
THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL END PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA RATHER QUICKLY, MOST LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

WHEN THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY, THE
SOUTHERN HALF WILL SPLIT OFF, CUT OFF, AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND DESPITE ANY RAINFALL RECEIVED FORM THE CURRENT SYSTEM,
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DRY OUT VERY QUICKLY UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW. THE
CUT OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING, AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTH ALONG WITH IT, THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES, BUT GIVEN THE SCENARIO, DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE DUE TO A VERY BROAD
AND DEEP TROUGH, OR PERHAPS SERIES OF TROUGHS, APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT A MUCH
MORE DRASTIC COOLDOWN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TERM. ALSO, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW, AND
IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD OUT, THIS COULD BE A VERY WET EVENT. ANOTHER
INTERESTING ASPECT IS THAT SNOW LEVELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DROPPING
TO BELOW THE ELEVATION OF THE AREA`S HIGHEST MOUNTAINTOPS, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST HIGH PEAK SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, AS THIS DRASTIC
PATTERN CHANGE IS ONLY JUST NOW STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF.
HOWEVER, THERE IS REMARKABLE SIMILARITY WITH THE LATEST BATCH OF
MODELS. GIVEN THE, FOR LACK OF A BETTER TERM, SQUIRRELLY GFS
SOLUTION THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THIS LATEST RUN IS MUCH MORE
BELIEVABLE, AND IT COINCIDES WELL WITH THE MUCH MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF SOLUTION. TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT, HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY, AND
CONTINUED THOSE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO DROPPED
TEMPERATURES DOWN CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE CHARACTERIZED AS A
"FIRE SEASON ENDING" EVENT JUST YET, THE CHANCE IS THERE FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT MUST BE SAID AGAIN THAT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, AS THERE IS A LOT OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN,
AND THE SITUATION COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS WILL BE WATCHING THE EVENT WITH GREAT
INTEREST AND UPDATING AS NECESSARY. -BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
FRIDAY
     TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAP/BTL







000
FXUS66 KMFR 181950
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1245 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS WERE CONFINED TO THE COAST RANGE. THE BIG WINNER WAS
RED MOUND WHERE 0.82 OF AN INCH FELL, NEXT WAS QUAIL PRAIRIE WITH
0.68 AND FLYNN PRAIRIE WITH 0.63. LESSER AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WITH ANYWHERE BETWEEN 0.10-0.16 OF AN
INCH.

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS
HIGHER FOR THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED CENTRAL CURRY
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE MODELS
(IN PARTICULAR THE NAM) SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE DON`T GET ANY STORMS THERE DUE IN
PART THAT WE`LL HAVE SOME WARNING ALOFT AS THE COOL POOL ALOFT MOVES
EAST OF THE CASCADES. EAST OF THE CASCADES STAND THE BEST CHANCE
OF GETTING A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. -PETRUCELLI



&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 18/18Z TAF CYCLE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY OVER MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES.
SOME PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT, THOUGH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, AND ISOLATED IFR IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR IN AREAS THAT GOT
APPRECIABLE RAIN, PRIMARILY ON THE WEST SIDE ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST RANGE AND UMPQUA BASIN- THOUGH SOME FOG IS LIKELY IN THE UPPER
KLAMATH BASIN. EXPECT THIS TO BE A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR WITH LOCAL
LIFR. SMOKE PRODUCTION FROM AREA WILDFIRES WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS AND HIGHER
HUMIDITIES. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900AM PDT THU 18 SEP 2014...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. A DEVELOPING
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP WIND
WAVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO BEING
DOMINATED BY A MODERATE SWELL DURING THE WEEKEND. THE WEAKER
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BTL


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...A QUICK LOOK AT THE LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATION
NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM,
RANGING FROM A TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO 0.20
INCHES, WITH THE LARGER AMOUNTS FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON, WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND THE CASCADES. THIS
RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP WITH WILDFIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS
IN THE AREA, BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PUT AN END TO FIRE
ACTIVITY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE MADE A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE LONG TERM, BUT
MORE ON THAT LATER.

TODAY, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA. OTHER
FACTORS TO INCLUDE IN CONSIDERATION WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INFLOW, WHICH WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITABLE WATERS
OF ROUGHLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES, AND THE INFLUENCES OF THE JET STREAM,
WHICH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE LIFT OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO,
THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT CHANCE
TO LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY,
AND BUMPED UP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE PRODUCING INSTABILITY, NAMELY THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF OREGON
INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND THE CASCADES AND ALL AREAS EAST.
THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING, COINCIDING WITH
THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL END PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA RATHER QUICKLY, MOST LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

WHEN THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY, THE
SOUTHERN HALF WILL SPLIT OFF, CUT OFF, AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND DESPITE ANY RAINFALL RECEIVED FORM THE CURRENT SYSTEM,
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DRY OUT VERY QUICKLY UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW. THE
CUT OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING, AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTH ALONG WITH IT, THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES, BUT GIVEN THE SCENARIO, DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE DUE TO A VERY BROAD
AND DEEP TROUGH, OR PERHAPS SERIES OF TROUGHS, APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT A MUCH
MORE DRASTIC COOLDOWN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TERM. ALSO, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW, AND
IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD OUT, THIS COULD BE A VERY WET EVENT. ANOTHER
INTERESTING ASPECT IS THAT SNOW LEVELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DROPPING
TO BELOW THE ELEVATION OF THE AREA`S HIGHEST MOUNTAINTOPS, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST HIGH PEAK SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, AS THIS DRASTIC
PATTERN CHANGE IS ONLY JUST NOW STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF.
HOWEVER, THERE IS REMARKABLE SIMILARITY WITH THE LATEST BATCH OF
MODELS. GIVEN THE, FOR LACK OF A BETTER TERM, SQUIRRELLY GFS
SOLUTION THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THIS LATEST RUN IS MUCH MORE
BELIEVABLE, AND IT COINCIDES WELL WITH THE MUCH MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF SOLUTION. TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT, HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY, AND
CONTINUED THOSE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO DROPPED
TEMPERATURES DOWN CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE CHARACTERIZED AS A
"FIRE SEASON ENDING" EVENT JUST YET, THE CHANCE IS THERE FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT MUST BE SAID AGAIN THAT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, AS THERE IS A LOT OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN,
AND THE SITUATION COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS WILL BE WATCHING THE EVENT WITH GREAT
INTEREST AND UPDATING AS NECESSARY. -BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
FRIDAY
     TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAP/BTL






000
FXUS66 KPDT 181729
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1028 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TODAY AND THIS EVENING PERIOD.  HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE TODAY...WITH THE BASIN AND FOOTHILL AREAS BEING BREEZY.
EXPECT 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH FOR THE GORGE AND THE KITTIAS
VALLEY...WITH 15 MPH GUSTING 25 MPH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER NOON TODAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST AROUND 5 PM DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE ALSO PULLED BACK ON POPS TO GO MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST.  THE SPLIT FLOW WILL CUT OFF MOST OF THE MOISTURE
FROM THE TROUGH THAT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  SLIGHT CHANCE UPSLOPE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  HAVE
MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 5 PM...AS IT STILL CAN`T BE RULED OUT.  BUT ONCE THE WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED.  SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL TO JUST THE
EAGLE CAPS...SOUTHERN GRANT...CROOK...AND DESCHUTES COUNTY FROM 5 TO
8 PM THIS EVENING. WEBER

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND
THE REGION TODAY WITH THE REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM AT
KRDM AND KBDN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY AT 10 TO
20 MPH THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 255 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS NEAR THE COAST AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE TROUGH IS
SPLITTING AS IT MOVES INLAND WITH THE NORTHERN SECTION IN WASHINGTON
AND THE SOUTHERN SECTION IN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE TWO BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION ON RADAR AND MODELS. ONE IS NEAR THE CASCADES ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE SECOND ONE IS IN EASTERN GRANT
COUNTY...WALLOWA COUNTY...AND BAKER COUNTY. HRRR SHOWS THE FIRST
BAND REMAINING IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. THE SECOND BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
STREAK. HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND REMAINING SEPARATE AND MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE OREGON BY 16Z. THE MORNING FORECAST HAS THE TWO SEPARATE
BANDS...THEN THE FIRST BAND WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
OREGON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OREGON WHERE THE DIFFLUENCE FROM THE SPLITTING TROUGH IS
ADDED TO THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN IDAHO BY 6Z/2300 PDT WITH RAIN SHOWERS
ENDING EXCEPT FOR OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
COONFIELD

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...00Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE VERY
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OVER FORECAST AREA AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS SHOW CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS FOR
TUESDAY AS WELL WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREADS EASTWARD TO
130-140W. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING THE AXIS OF AN OPEN
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO 132W BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOWEST HEIGHTS IN THE OVERALL TROUGH NEAR 140W WHERE A CLOSED
LOW WITH MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS DEVELOPS IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SO I HAVE INCREASED POPS A TAD TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SPREADS INCREASING CLOUDS, MOISTURE, AND RAIN TO THE
CASCADES JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED, THE GFS IS FASTER IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE TROUGH AXIS TO
THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH
AXIS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS PHASING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS
RESULTS IN THE ECMWF TAKING LONGER TO SPREAD RAIN TO THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. AS SUCH
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.  POLAN



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  80  55  80  52 /  20  10   0   0
ALW  83  61  80  57 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  85  57  85  51 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  80  56  84  54 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  83  55  85  48 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  80  57  83  52 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  76  43  79  40 /  20  20   0   0
LGD  81  51  79  44 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  78  49  81  47 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  78  58  83  52 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/99/99






000
FXUS66 KPDT 181729
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1028 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TODAY AND THIS EVENING PERIOD.  HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE TODAY...WITH THE BASIN AND FOOTHILL AREAS BEING BREEZY.
EXPECT 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH FOR THE GORGE AND THE KITTIAS
VALLEY...WITH 15 MPH GUSTING 25 MPH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER NOON TODAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST AROUND 5 PM DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE ALSO PULLED BACK ON POPS TO GO MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST.  THE SPLIT FLOW WILL CUT OFF MOST OF THE MOISTURE
FROM THE TROUGH THAT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  SLIGHT CHANCE UPSLOPE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  HAVE
MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 5 PM...AS IT STILL CAN`T BE RULED OUT.  BUT ONCE THE WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED.  SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL TO JUST THE
EAGLE CAPS...SOUTHERN GRANT...CROOK...AND DESCHUTES COUNTY FROM 5 TO
8 PM THIS EVENING. WEBER

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND
THE REGION TODAY WITH THE REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM AT
KRDM AND KBDN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY AT 10 TO
20 MPH THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 255 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS NEAR THE COAST AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE TROUGH IS
SPLITTING AS IT MOVES INLAND WITH THE NORTHERN SECTION IN WASHINGTON
AND THE SOUTHERN SECTION IN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE TWO BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION ON RADAR AND MODELS. ONE IS NEAR THE CASCADES ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE SECOND ONE IS IN EASTERN GRANT
COUNTY...WALLOWA COUNTY...AND BAKER COUNTY. HRRR SHOWS THE FIRST
BAND REMAINING IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. THE SECOND BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
STREAK. HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND REMAINING SEPARATE AND MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE OREGON BY 16Z. THE MORNING FORECAST HAS THE TWO SEPARATE
BANDS...THEN THE FIRST BAND WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
OREGON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OREGON WHERE THE DIFFLUENCE FROM THE SPLITTING TROUGH IS
ADDED TO THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN IDAHO BY 6Z/2300 PDT WITH RAIN SHOWERS
ENDING EXCEPT FOR OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
COONFIELD

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...00Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE VERY
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OVER FORECAST AREA AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS SHOW CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS FOR
TUESDAY AS WELL WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREADS EASTWARD TO
130-140W. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING THE AXIS OF AN OPEN
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO 132W BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOWEST HEIGHTS IN THE OVERALL TROUGH NEAR 140W WHERE A CLOSED
LOW WITH MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS DEVELOPS IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SO I HAVE INCREASED POPS A TAD TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SPREADS INCREASING CLOUDS, MOISTURE, AND RAIN TO THE
CASCADES JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED, THE GFS IS FASTER IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE TROUGH AXIS TO
THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH
AXIS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS PHASING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS
RESULTS IN THE ECMWF TAKING LONGER TO SPREAD RAIN TO THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. AS SUCH
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.  POLAN



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  80  55  80  52 /  20  10   0   0
ALW  83  61  80  57 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  85  57  85  51 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  80  56  84  54 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  83  55  85  48 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  80  57  83  52 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  76  43  79  40 /  20  20   0   0
LGD  81  51  79  44 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  78  49  81  47 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  78  58  83  52 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/99/99







000
FXUS66 KPQR 181639
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN
COOL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER OVER NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. DRIER
WEATHER SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN AROUND A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. SLICK ROADS
HAVE CAUSED NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS AROUND THE PORTLAND METRO
AREA THIS MORNING. ANYWAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A 700MB DEFORMATION ZONE THAT MODELS SUGGEST
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THAT AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE
AND CASCADES. WITH THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH PRESURE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA...MAY ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH...AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF RAIN STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST
DOUGLAS COUNTY INTO FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY. IT HAS PRODUCED
ANYWHERE BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN
LANE COUNTY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THIS BAND WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY
FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WETTING RAINS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTY. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...THIS BAND OF RAINS
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED...AND IT IS BEGINNING
TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. AS A RESULT...QPF AMOUNTS WERE KEPT
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN LANE COUNTY.

BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.  A WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FRIDAY...BUT ANY RAIN THAT
FALLS FROM IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT. WARM WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR
THE WEEKEND. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE NO. CALIF COAST STREAMS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY INTO THE EVENING. ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES...SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE AND CIGS WILL LIFT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
COAST TODAY WILL MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST TONIGHT AND
INLAND FRI MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
OCCASIONALMVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AFTER 11Z- 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MIGHT
GUST TO 15 OR EVEN 20 KT.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6 FT TODAY AND 5 FT FRIDAY WITH A
MIXTURE OF 16 TO 18 SECOND SOUTHWEST SWELL AND AROUND 10 SECOND
NORTHWEST SWELL. SEAS THEN BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT SATURDAY IN THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT
SUNDAY. TW/PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 181639
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN
COOL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER OVER NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. DRIER
WEATHER SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN AROUND A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. SLICK ROADS
HAVE CAUSED NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS AROUND THE PORTLAND METRO
AREA THIS MORNING. ANYWAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A 700MB DEFORMATION ZONE THAT MODELS SUGGEST
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THAT AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE
AND CASCADES. WITH THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH PRESURE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA...MAY ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH...AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF RAIN STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST
DOUGLAS COUNTY INTO FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY. IT HAS PRODUCED
ANYWHERE BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN
LANE COUNTY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THIS BAND WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY
FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WETTING RAINS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTY. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...THIS BAND OF RAINS
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED...AND IT IS BEGINNING
TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. AS A RESULT...QPF AMOUNTS WERE KEPT
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN LANE COUNTY.

BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.  A WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FRIDAY...BUT ANY RAIN THAT
FALLS FROM IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT. WARM WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR
THE WEEKEND. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE NO. CALIF COAST STREAMS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY INTO THE EVENING. ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES...SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE AND CIGS WILL LIFT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
COAST TODAY WILL MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST TONIGHT AND
INLAND FRI MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
OCCASIONALMVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AFTER 11Z- 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MIGHT
GUST TO 15 OR EVEN 20 KT.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6 FT TODAY AND 5 FT FRIDAY WITH A
MIXTURE OF 16 TO 18 SECOND SOUTHWEST SWELL AND AROUND 10 SECOND
NORTHWEST SWELL. SEAS THEN BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT SATURDAY IN THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT
SUNDAY. TW/PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 181605
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS WERE CONFINED TO THE COAST RANGE. THE BIG WINNER WAS
RED MOUND WHERE 0.82 OF AN INCH FELL, NEXT WAS QUAIL PRAIRIE WITH
0.68 AND FLYNN PRAIRIE WITH 0.63. LESSER AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WITH ANYWHERE BETWEEN 0.10-0.16 OF AN
INCH.

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS
HIGHER FOR THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED CENTRAL CURRY
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE MODELS
(IN PARTICULAR THE NAM) SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE DON`T GET ANY STORMS THERE DUE IN
PART THAT WE`LL HAVE SOME WARNING ALOFT AS THE COOL POOL ALOFT MOVES
EAST OF THE CASCADES. EAST OF THE CASCADES STAND THE BEST CHANCE
OF GETTING A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. -PETRUCELLI



&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 18/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR CIGS NEAR
THE COAST AND MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE NEAR WILDFIRES. AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN...PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 315 AM PDT THU 18 SEP 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE
JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED NORTH WINDS
WITH STEEP WIND WAVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK
TO BEING DOMINATED BY A MODERATE SWELL DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...A QUICK LOOK AT THE LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATION
NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM,
RANGING FROM A TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO 0.20
INCHES, WITH THE LARGER AMOUNTS FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON, WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND THE CASCADES. THIS
RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP WITH WILDFIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS
IN THE AREA, BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PUT AN END TO FIRE
ACTIVITY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE MADE A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE LONG TERM, BUT
MORE ON THAT LATER.

TODAY, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA. OTHER
FACTORS TO INCLUDE IN CONSIDERATION WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INFLOW, WHICH WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITABLE WATERS
OF ROUGHLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES, AND THE INFLUENCES OF THE JET STREAM,
WHICH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE LIFT OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO,
THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT CHANCE
TO LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY,
AND BUMPED UP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE PRODUCING INSTABILITY, NAMELY THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF OREGON
INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND THE CASCADES AND ALL AREAS EAST.
THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING, COINCIDING WITH
THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL END PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA RATHER QUICKLY, MOST LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

WHEN THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY, THE
SOUTHERN HALF WILL SPLIT OFF, CUT OFF, AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND DESPITE ANY RAINFALL RECEIVED FORM THE CURRENT SYSTEM,
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DRY OUT VERY QUICKLY UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW. THE
CUT OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING, AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTH ALONG WITH IT, THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES, BUT GIVEN THE SCENARIO, DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE DUE TO A VERY BROAD
AND DEEP TROUGH, OR PERHAPS SERIES OF TROUGHS, APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT A MUCH
MORE DRASTIC COOLDOWN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TERM. ALSO, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW, AND
IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD OUT, THIS COULD BE A VERY WET EVENT. ANOTHER
INTERESTING ASPECT IS THAT SNOW LEVELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DROPPING
TO BELOW THE ELEVATION OF THE AREA`S HIGHEST MOUNTAINTOPS, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST HIGH PEAK SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, AS THIS DRASTIC
PATTERN CHANGE IS ONLY JUST NOW STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF.
HOWEVER, THERE IS REMARKABLE SIMILARITY WITH THE LATEST BATCH OF
MODELS. GIVEN THE, FOR LACK OF A BETTER TERM, SQUIRRELLY GFS
SOLUTION THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THIS LATEST RUN IS MUCH MORE
BELIEVABLE, AND IT COINCIDES WELL WITH THE MUCH MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF SOLUTION. TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT, HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY, AND
CONTINUED THOSE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO DROPPED
TEMPERATURES DOWN CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE CHARACTERIZED AS A
"FIRE SEASON ENDING" EVENT JUST YET, THE CHANCE IS THERE FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT MUST BE SAID AGAIN THAT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, AS THERE IS A LOT OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN,
AND THE SITUATION COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS WILL BE WATCHING THE EVENT WITH GREAT
INTEREST AND UPDATING AS NECESSARY. -BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY
     TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 181605
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS WERE CONFINED TO THE COAST RANGE. THE BIG WINNER WAS
RED MOUND WHERE 0.82 OF AN INCH FELL, NEXT WAS QUAIL PRAIRIE WITH
0.68 AND FLYNN PRAIRIE WITH 0.63. LESSER AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WITH ANYWHERE BETWEEN 0.10-0.16 OF AN
INCH.

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS
HIGHER FOR THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED CENTRAL CURRY
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE MODELS
(IN PARTICULAR THE NAM) SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE DON`T GET ANY STORMS THERE DUE IN
PART THAT WE`LL HAVE SOME WARNING ALOFT AS THE COOL POOL ALOFT MOVES
EAST OF THE CASCADES. EAST OF THE CASCADES STAND THE BEST CHANCE
OF GETTING A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. -PETRUCELLI



&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 18/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR CIGS NEAR
THE COAST AND MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE NEAR WILDFIRES. AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN...PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 315 AM PDT THU 18 SEP 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE
JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED NORTH WINDS
WITH STEEP WIND WAVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK
TO BEING DOMINATED BY A MODERATE SWELL DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...A QUICK LOOK AT THE LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATION
NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM,
RANGING FROM A TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO 0.20
INCHES, WITH THE LARGER AMOUNTS FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON, WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND THE CASCADES. THIS
RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP WITH WILDFIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS
IN THE AREA, BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PUT AN END TO FIRE
ACTIVITY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE MADE A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE LONG TERM, BUT
MORE ON THAT LATER.

TODAY, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA. OTHER
FACTORS TO INCLUDE IN CONSIDERATION WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INFLOW, WHICH WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITABLE WATERS
OF ROUGHLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES, AND THE INFLUENCES OF THE JET STREAM,
WHICH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE LIFT OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO,
THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT CHANCE
TO LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY,
AND BUMPED UP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE PRODUCING INSTABILITY, NAMELY THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF OREGON
INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND THE CASCADES AND ALL AREAS EAST.
THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING, COINCIDING WITH
THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL END PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA RATHER QUICKLY, MOST LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

WHEN THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY, THE
SOUTHERN HALF WILL SPLIT OFF, CUT OFF, AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND DESPITE ANY RAINFALL RECEIVED FORM THE CURRENT SYSTEM,
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DRY OUT VERY QUICKLY UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW. THE
CUT OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING, AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTH ALONG WITH IT, THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES, BUT GIVEN THE SCENARIO, DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE DUE TO A VERY BROAD
AND DEEP TROUGH, OR PERHAPS SERIES OF TROUGHS, APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT A MUCH
MORE DRASTIC COOLDOWN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TERM. ALSO, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW, AND
IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD OUT, THIS COULD BE A VERY WET EVENT. ANOTHER
INTERESTING ASPECT IS THAT SNOW LEVELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DROPPING
TO BELOW THE ELEVATION OF THE AREA`S HIGHEST MOUNTAINTOPS, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST HIGH PEAK SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, AS THIS DRASTIC
PATTERN CHANGE IS ONLY JUST NOW STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF.
HOWEVER, THERE IS REMARKABLE SIMILARITY WITH THE LATEST BATCH OF
MODELS. GIVEN THE, FOR LACK OF A BETTER TERM, SQUIRRELLY GFS
SOLUTION THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THIS LATEST RUN IS MUCH MORE
BELIEVABLE, AND IT COINCIDES WELL WITH THE MUCH MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF SOLUTION. TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT, HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY, AND
CONTINUED THOSE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO DROPPED
TEMPERATURES DOWN CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE CHARACTERIZED AS A
"FIRE SEASON ENDING" EVENT JUST YET, THE CHANCE IS THERE FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT MUST BE SAID AGAIN THAT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, AS THERE IS A LOT OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN,
AND THE SITUATION COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS WILL BE WATCHING THE EVENT WITH GREAT
INTEREST AND UPDATING AS NECESSARY. -BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY
     TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KPDT 181559
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
859 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TODAY AND THIS EVENING PERIOD.  HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE TODAY...WITH THE BASIN AND FOOTHILL AREAS BEING BREEZY.
EXPECT 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH FOR THE GORGE AND THE KITTIAS
VALLEY...WITH 15 MPH GUSTING 25 MPH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER NOON TODAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST AROUND 5 PM DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE ALSO PULLED BACK ON POPS TO GO MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST.  THE SPLIT FLOW WILL CUT OFF MOST OF THE MOISTURE
FROM THE TROUGH THAT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  SLIGHT CHANCE UPSLOPE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  HAVE
MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 5 PM...AS IT STILL CAN`T BE RULED OUT.  BUT ONCE THE WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED.  SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL TO JUST THE
EAGLE CAPS...SOUTHERN GRANT...CROOK...AND DESCHUTES COUNTY FROM 5 TO
8 PM THIS EVENING. WEBER


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 255 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS NEAR THE COAST AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE TROUGH IS
SPLITTING AS IT MOVES INLAND WITH THE NORTHERN SECTION IN WASHINGTON
AND THE SOUTHERN SECTION IN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE TWO BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION ON RADAR AND MODELS. ONE IS NEAR THE CASCADES ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE SECOND ONE IS IN EASTERN GRANT
COUNTY...WALLOWA COUNTY...AND BAKER COUNTY. HRRR SHOWS THE FIRST
BAND REMAINING IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. THE SECOND BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
STREAK. HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND REMAINING SEPARATE AND MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE OREGON BY 16Z. THE MORNING FORECAST HAS THE TWO SEPARATE
BANDS...THEN THE FIRST BAND WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
OREGON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OREGON WHERE THE DIFFLUENCE FROM THE SPLITTING TROUGH IS
ADDED TO THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN IDAHO BY 6Z/2300 PDT WITH RAIN SHOWERS
ENDING EXCEPT FOR OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
COONFIELD

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...00Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE VERY
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OVER FORECAST AREA AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS SHOW CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS FOR
TUESDAY AS WELL WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREADS EASTWARD TO
130-140W. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING THE AXIS OF AN OPEN
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO 132W BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOWEST HEIGHTS IN THE OVERALL TROUGH NEAR 140W WHERE A CLOSED
LOW WITH MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS DEVELOPS IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SO I HAVE INCREASED POPS A TAD TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SPREADS INCREASING CLOUDS, MOISTURE, AND RAIN TO THE
CASCADES JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED, THE GFS IS FASTER IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE TROUGH AXIS TO
THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH
AXIS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS PHASING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS
RESULTS IN THE ECMWF TAKING LONGER TO SPREAD RAIN TO THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. AS SUCH
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.  POLAN

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT
KDLS...KRDM...KBDN...KPDT AND KALW TODAY WITH POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM AT KRDM AND KBDN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE VFR
DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  80  55  80  52 /  20  10   0   0
ALW  83  61  80  57 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  85  57  85  51 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  80  56  84  54 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  83  55  85  48 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  80  57  83  52 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  76  43  79  40 /  20  20   0   0
LGD  81  51  79  44 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  78  49  81  47 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  78  58  83  52 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPDT 181559
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
859 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TODAY AND THIS EVENING PERIOD.  HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE TODAY...WITH THE BASIN AND FOOTHILL AREAS BEING BREEZY.
EXPECT 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH FOR THE GORGE AND THE KITTIAS
VALLEY...WITH 15 MPH GUSTING 25 MPH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER NOON TODAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGEST AROUND 5 PM DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE ALSO PULLED BACK ON POPS TO GO MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST.  THE SPLIT FLOW WILL CUT OFF MOST OF THE MOISTURE
FROM THE TROUGH THAT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  SLIGHT CHANCE UPSLOPE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  HAVE
MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 5 PM...AS IT STILL CAN`T BE RULED OUT.  BUT ONCE THE WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY
LIMITED.  SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL TO JUST THE
EAGLE CAPS...SOUTHERN GRANT...CROOK...AND DESCHUTES COUNTY FROM 5 TO
8 PM THIS EVENING. WEBER


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 255 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS NEAR THE COAST AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE TROUGH IS
SPLITTING AS IT MOVES INLAND WITH THE NORTHERN SECTION IN WASHINGTON
AND THE SOUTHERN SECTION IN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE TWO BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION ON RADAR AND MODELS. ONE IS NEAR THE CASCADES ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE SECOND ONE IS IN EASTERN GRANT
COUNTY...WALLOWA COUNTY...AND BAKER COUNTY. HRRR SHOWS THE FIRST
BAND REMAINING IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. THE SECOND BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
STREAK. HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND REMAINING SEPARATE AND MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE OREGON BY 16Z. THE MORNING FORECAST HAS THE TWO SEPARATE
BANDS...THEN THE FIRST BAND WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
OREGON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OREGON WHERE THE DIFFLUENCE FROM THE SPLITTING TROUGH IS
ADDED TO THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN IDAHO BY 6Z/2300 PDT WITH RAIN SHOWERS
ENDING EXCEPT FOR OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
COONFIELD

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...00Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE VERY
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OVER FORECAST AREA AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS SHOW CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS FOR
TUESDAY AS WELL WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREADS EASTWARD TO
130-140W. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING THE AXIS OF AN OPEN
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO 132W BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOWEST HEIGHTS IN THE OVERALL TROUGH NEAR 140W WHERE A CLOSED
LOW WITH MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS DEVELOPS IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SO I HAVE INCREASED POPS A TAD TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SPREADS INCREASING CLOUDS, MOISTURE, AND RAIN TO THE
CASCADES JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED, THE GFS IS FASTER IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE TROUGH AXIS TO
THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH
AXIS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS PHASING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS
RESULTS IN THE ECMWF TAKING LONGER TO SPREAD RAIN TO THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. AS SUCH
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.  POLAN

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT
KDLS...KRDM...KBDN...KPDT AND KALW TODAY WITH POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM AT KRDM AND KBDN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE VFR
DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  80  55  80  52 /  20  10   0   0
ALW  83  61  80  57 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  85  57  85  51 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  80  56  84  54 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  83  55  85  48 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  80  57  83  52 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  76  43  79  40 /  20  20   0   0
LGD  81  51  79  44 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  78  49  81  47 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  78  58  83  52 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/99/99









000
FXUS65 KBOI 181527
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
927 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL OCCURRING AT SUNRISE
ALONG THE NRN NEVADA BORDER AND WE UPDATED FOR MORE IN SRN HARNEY
AND MALHEUR COUNTIES BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR COMES IN FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING.  WE ALSO ADDED IN AREAS OF SMOKE AS THE
LARGEST FIRE IN CALIFORNIA EXPANDED GREATLY YESTERDAY.  REST OF
EARLY MORNING FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH SPLITTING TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
AND MODEST COOLING FROM YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. SURFACE VISIBILITIES
LOCALLY 5 MIS OR LESS IN SMOKE. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORSMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE
5-10 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS BY 21Z. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST 15-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW. BY AFTERNOON BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IDAHO WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS APART WITH SOUTHERN ENERGY
DROPPING ALONG THE CA COAST WHILE THE NORTHERN ENERGY MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY
WHERE SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. FRIDAY IS THE COOLEST DAY /THOUGH STILL ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/. TEMPS RISE 3-6 SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
AMPLIFIES. CHANGE IN THE WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO LOWER THE INFLUX
OF SMOKE FROM LARGE CA FIRES OVER THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CUTOFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN INTO WYOMING THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN THE POSITION
OF THE LOW WHICH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OUR AREA WILL
RECEIVE. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW WHILE
THE ECMWF...WHICH IS THE WET SOLUTION...BRINGS THE LOW CENTER NEAR
TWIN FALLS. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL ALSO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS WELL...AS THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER AND THE ECMWF IS WET AND COOLER. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A
SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS FAR AS PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
THE MODELS HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
SOMETIME AFTER WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AT
THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND BEYOND LOOK MUCH COOLER WITH
THIS INCOMING TROUGH WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 181527
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
927 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL OCCURRING AT SUNRISE
ALONG THE NRN NEVADA BORDER AND WE UPDATED FOR MORE IN SRN HARNEY
AND MALHEUR COUNTIES BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR COMES IN FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING.  WE ALSO ADDED IN AREAS OF SMOKE AS THE
LARGEST FIRE IN CALIFORNIA EXPANDED GREATLY YESTERDAY.  REST OF
EARLY MORNING FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH SPLITTING TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
AND MODEST COOLING FROM YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. SURFACE VISIBILITIES
LOCALLY 5 MIS OR LESS IN SMOKE. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORSMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE
5-10 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS BY 21Z. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST 15-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW. BY AFTERNOON BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IDAHO WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS APART WITH SOUTHERN ENERGY
DROPPING ALONG THE CA COAST WHILE THE NORTHERN ENERGY MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY
WHERE SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. FRIDAY IS THE COOLEST DAY /THOUGH STILL ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/. TEMPS RISE 3-6 SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
AMPLIFIES. CHANGE IN THE WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO LOWER THE INFLUX
OF SMOKE FROM LARGE CA FIRES OVER THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CUTOFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN INTO WYOMING THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN THE POSITION
OF THE LOW WHICH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OUR AREA WILL
RECEIVE. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW WHILE
THE ECMWF...WHICH IS THE WET SOLUTION...BRINGS THE LOW CENTER NEAR
TWIN FALLS. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL ALSO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS WELL...AS THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER AND THE ECMWF IS WET AND COOLER. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A
SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS FAR AS PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
THE MODELS HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
SOMETIME AFTER WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AT
THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND BEYOND LOOK MUCH COOLER WITH
THIS INCOMING TROUGH WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS66 KMFR 181022 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
322 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...A QUICK LOOK AT THE LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATION
NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM,
RANGING FROM A TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO 0.20
INCHES, WITH THE LARGER AMOUNTS FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON, WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND THE CASCADES. THIS
RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP WITH WILDFIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS
IN THE AREA, BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PUT AN END TO FIRE
ACTIVITY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE MADE A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE LONG TERM, BUT
MORE ON THAT LATER.

TODAY, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA. OTHER
FACTORS TO INCLUDE IN CONSIDERATION WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INFLOW, WHICH WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITABLE WATERS
OF ROUGHLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES, AND THE INFLUENCES OF THE JET STREAM,
WHICH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE LIFT OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO,
THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT CHANCE
TO LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY,
AND BUMPED UP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE PRODUCING INSTABILITY, NAMELY THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF OREGON
INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND THE CASCADES AND ALL AREAS EAST.
THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING, COINCIDING WITH
THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL END PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA RATHER QUICKLY, MOST LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

WHEN THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY, THE
SOUTHERN HALF WILL SPLIT OFF, CUT OFF, AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND DESPITE ANY RAINFALL RECEIVED FORM THE CURRENT SYSTEM,
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DRY OUT VERY QUICKLY UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW. THE
CUT OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING, AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTH ALONG WITH IT, THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES, BUT GIVEN THE SCENARIO, DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE DUE TO A VERY BROAD
AND DEEP TROUGH, OR PERHAPS SERIES OF TROUGHS, APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT A MUCH
MORE DRASTIC COOLDOWN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TERM. ALSO, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW, AND
IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD OUT, THIS COULD BE A VERY WET EVENT. ANOTHER
INTERESTING ASPECT IS THAT SNOW LEVELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DROPPING
TO BELOW THE ELEVATION OF THE AREA`S HIGHEST MOUNTAINTOPS, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST HIGH PEAK SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, AS THIS DRASTIC
PATTERN CHANGE IS ONLY JUST NOW STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF.
HOWEVER, THERE IS REMARKABLE SIMILARITY WITH THE LATEST BATCH OF
MODELS. GIVEN THE, FOR LACK OF A BETTER TERM, SQUIRRELLY GFS
SOLUTION THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THIS LATEST RUN IS MUCH MORE
BELIEVABLE, AND IT COINCIDES WELL WITH THE MUCH MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF SOLUTION. TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT, HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY, AND
CONTINUED THOSE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO DROPPED
TEMPERATURES DOWN CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE CHARACTERIZED AS A
"FIRE SEASON ENDING" EVENT JUST YET, THE CHANCE IS THERE FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT MUST BE SAID AGAIN THAT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, AS THERE IS A LOT OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN,
AND THE SITUATION COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS WILL BE WATCHING THE EVENT WITH GREAT
INTEREST AND UPDATING AS NECESSARY. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 18/06Z TAF CYCLE...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF LOWERING TO MVFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN AREAS OF RAIN, FOG AND LOW
STRATUS. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CASCADES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
CASCADES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING, BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE EVENING INLAND. -SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 315 AM PDT THU 18 SEP 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE
JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED NORTH WINDS
WITH STEEP WIND WAVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK
TO BEING DOMINATED BY A MODERATE SWELL DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -JRS


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/JRS/MAS








000
FXUS66 KMFR 181022 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
322 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...A QUICK LOOK AT THE LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATION
NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM,
RANGING FROM A TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO 0.20
INCHES, WITH THE LARGER AMOUNTS FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON, WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND THE CASCADES. THIS
RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP WITH WILDFIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS
IN THE AREA, BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PUT AN END TO FIRE
ACTIVITY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE MADE A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE LONG TERM, BUT
MORE ON THAT LATER.

TODAY, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA. OTHER
FACTORS TO INCLUDE IN CONSIDERATION WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INFLOW, WHICH WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITABLE WATERS
OF ROUGHLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES, AND THE INFLUENCES OF THE JET STREAM,
WHICH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE LIFT OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO,
THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT CHANCE
TO LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY,
AND BUMPED UP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE PRODUCING INSTABILITY, NAMELY THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF OREGON
INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND THE CASCADES AND ALL AREAS EAST.
THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING, COINCIDING WITH
THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL END PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA RATHER QUICKLY, MOST LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

WHEN THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY, THE
SOUTHERN HALF WILL SPLIT OFF, CUT OFF, AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND DESPITE ANY RAINFALL RECEIVED FORM THE CURRENT SYSTEM,
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DRY OUT VERY QUICKLY UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW. THE
CUT OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING, AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTH ALONG WITH IT, THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES, BUT GIVEN THE SCENARIO, DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE DUE TO A VERY BROAD
AND DEEP TROUGH, OR PERHAPS SERIES OF TROUGHS, APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT A MUCH
MORE DRASTIC COOLDOWN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TERM. ALSO, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW, AND
IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD OUT, THIS COULD BE A VERY WET EVENT. ANOTHER
INTERESTING ASPECT IS THAT SNOW LEVELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DROPPING
TO BELOW THE ELEVATION OF THE AREA`S HIGHEST MOUNTAINTOPS, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST HIGH PEAK SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, AS THIS DRASTIC
PATTERN CHANGE IS ONLY JUST NOW STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF.
HOWEVER, THERE IS REMARKABLE SIMILARITY WITH THE LATEST BATCH OF
MODELS. GIVEN THE, FOR LACK OF A BETTER TERM, SQUIRRELLY GFS
SOLUTION THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THIS LATEST RUN IS MUCH MORE
BELIEVABLE, AND IT COINCIDES WELL WITH THE MUCH MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF SOLUTION. TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT, HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY, AND
CONTINUED THOSE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO DROPPED
TEMPERATURES DOWN CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE CHARACTERIZED AS A
"FIRE SEASON ENDING" EVENT JUST YET, THE CHANCE IS THERE FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT MUST BE SAID AGAIN THAT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, AS THERE IS A LOT OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN,
AND THE SITUATION COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS WILL BE WATCHING THE EVENT WITH GREAT
INTEREST AND UPDATING AS NECESSARY. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 18/06Z TAF CYCLE...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF LOWERING TO MVFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN AREAS OF RAIN, FOG AND LOW
STRATUS. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CASCADES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
CASCADES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING, BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE EVENING INLAND. -SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 315 AM PDT THU 18 SEP 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE
JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED NORTH WINDS
WITH STEEP WIND WAVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK
TO BEING DOMINATED BY A MODERATE SWELL DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -JRS


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/JRS/MAS









000
FXUS66 KMFR 181021
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
321 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...A QUICK LOOK AT THE LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATION NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM, RANGING FROM A TRACE OR A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO 0.20 INCHES, WITH THE LARGER AMOUNTS
FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST OREGON, WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY, AND THE CASCADES. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP
WITH WILDFIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS IN THE AREA, BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO PUT AN END TO FIRE ACTIVITY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE MADE A DRAMATIC
SHIFT IN THE LONG TERM, BUT MORE ON THAT LATER.

TODAY, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA. OTHER
FACTORS TO INCLUDE IN CONSIDERATION WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INFLOW, WHICH WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITABLE WATERS
OF ROUGHLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES, AND THE INFLUENCES OF THE JET STREAM,
WHICH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE LIFT OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO,
THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT CHANCE
TO LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY,
AND BUMPED UP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE PRODUCING INSTABILITY, NAMELY THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF OREGON
INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND THE CASCADES AND ALL AREAS EAST.
THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING, COINCIDING WITH
THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL END PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA RATHER QUICKLY, MOST LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

WHEN THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY, THE
SOUTHERN HALF WILL SPLIT OFF, CUT OFF, AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND DESPITE ANY RAINFALL RECEIVED FORM THE CURRENT SYSTEM,
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DRY OUT VERY QUICKLY UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW. THE
CUT OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING, AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTH ALONG WITH IT, THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES, BUT GIVEN THE SCENARIO, DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE DUE TO A VERY BROAD
AND DEEP TROUGH, OR PERHAPS SERIES OF TROUGHS, APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT A MUCH
MORE DRASTIC COOLDOWN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TERM. ALSO, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW, AND
IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD OUT, THIS COULD BE A VERY WET EVENT. ANOTHER
INTERESTING ASPECT IS THAT SNOW LEVELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DROPPING
TO BELOW THE ELEVATION OF THE AREA`S HIGHEST MOUNTAINTOPS, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST HIGH PEAK SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, AS THIS DRASTIC
PATTERN CHANGE IS ONLY JUST NOW STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF.
HOWEVER, THERE IS REMARKABLE SIMILARITY WITH THE LATEST BATCH OF
MODELS. GIVEN THE, FOR LACK OF A BETTER TERM, SQUIRRELLY GFS
SOLUTION THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THIS LATEST RUN IS MUCH MORE
BELIEVABLE, AND IT COINCIDES WELL WITH THE MUCH MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF SOLUTION. TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT, HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY, AND
CONTINUED THOSE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO DROPPED
TEMPERATURES DOWN CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE CHARACTERIZED AS A
"FIRE SEASON ENDING" EVENT JUST YET, THE CHANCE IS THERE FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT MUST BE SAID AGAIN THAT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, AS THERE IS A LOT OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN,
AND THE SITUATION COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS WILL BE WATCHING THE EVENT WITH GREAT
INTEREST AND UPDATING AS NECESSARY. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 18/06Z TAF CYCLE...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF LOWERING TO MVFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN AREAS OF RAIN, FOG AND LOW
STRATUS. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CASCADES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
CASCADES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING, BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE EVENING INLAND. -SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 315 AM PDT THU 18 SEP 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE
JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED NORTH WINDS
WITH STEEP WIND WAVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK
TO BEING DOMINATED BY A MODERATE SWELL DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -JRS


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/JRS/MAS







000
FXUS66 KMFR 181021
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
321 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...A QUICK LOOK AT THE LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATION NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM, RANGING FROM A TRACE OR A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO 0.20 INCHES, WITH THE LARGER AMOUNTS
FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST OREGON, WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY, AND THE CASCADES. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP
WITH WILDFIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS IN THE AREA, BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO PUT AN END TO FIRE ACTIVITY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE MADE A DRAMATIC
SHIFT IN THE LONG TERM, BUT MORE ON THAT LATER.

TODAY, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA. OTHER
FACTORS TO INCLUDE IN CONSIDERATION WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INFLOW, WHICH WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITABLE WATERS
OF ROUGHLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES, AND THE INFLUENCES OF THE JET STREAM,
WHICH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE LIFT OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO,
THE COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT CHANCE
TO LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY,
AND BUMPED UP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAT CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE PRODUCING INSTABILITY, NAMELY THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF OREGON
INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND THE CASCADES AND ALL AREAS EAST.
THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING, COINCIDING WITH
THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL END PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA RATHER QUICKLY, MOST LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

WHEN THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY, THE
SOUTHERN HALF WILL SPLIT OFF, CUT OFF, AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL RETURN.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND DESPITE ANY RAINFALL RECEIVED FORM THE CURRENT SYSTEM,
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL DRY OUT VERY QUICKLY UNDER OFFSHORE FLOW. THE
CUT OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING, AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTH ALONG WITH IT, THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES, BUT GIVEN THE SCENARIO, DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE DUE TO A VERY BROAD
AND DEEP TROUGH, OR PERHAPS SERIES OF TROUGHS, APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT A MUCH
MORE DRASTIC COOLDOWN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TERM. ALSO, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A STRONG MOISTURE INFLOW, AND
IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD OUT, THIS COULD BE A VERY WET EVENT. ANOTHER
INTERESTING ASPECT IS THAT SNOW LEVELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DROPPING
TO BELOW THE ELEVATION OF THE AREA`S HIGHEST MOUNTAINTOPS, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST HIGH PEAK SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, AS THIS DRASTIC
PATTERN CHANGE IS ONLY JUST NOW STARTING TO RESOLVE ITSELF.
HOWEVER, THERE IS REMARKABLE SIMILARITY WITH THE LATEST BATCH OF
MODELS. GIVEN THE, FOR LACK OF A BETTER TERM, SQUIRRELLY GFS
SOLUTION THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THIS LATEST RUN IS MUCH MORE
BELIEVABLE, AND IT COINCIDES WELL WITH THE MUCH MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF SOLUTION. TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT, HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY, AND
CONTINUED THOSE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO DROPPED
TEMPERATURES DOWN CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE CHARACTERIZED AS A
"FIRE SEASON ENDING" EVENT JUST YET, THE CHANCE IS THERE FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT MUST BE SAID AGAIN THAT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, AS THERE IS A LOT OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN,
AND THE SITUATION COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS WILL BE WATCHING THE EVENT WITH GREAT
INTEREST AND UPDATING AS NECESSARY. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 18/06Z TAF CYCLE...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF LOWERING TO MVFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN AREAS OF RAIN, FOG AND LOW
STRATUS. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CASCADES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
CASCADES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING, BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE EVENING INLAND. -SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 315 AM PDT THU 18 SEP 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE
JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED NORTH WINDS
WITH STEEP WIND WAVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AND SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK
TO BEING DOMINATED BY A MODERATE SWELL DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -JRS


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/JRS/MAS






000
FXUS66 KPQR 181003
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES OFF THE N CALIF COAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IS IT
MOVES INTO N CALIF THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS...WITH MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGH SAGGING OFF THE WEST COAST
IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITHIN THE
TROUGH LAY OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ESTABLISHED A MILD AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH 2 AM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND SCARCE. THE SOUTH WA COAST AND NORTH
OREGON COAST RECEIVED AROUND 0.10 INCH OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE FROM A WEAK LOW OFF
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH SO PCPN
SHOULD TAPER OFF SOON. THE LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS KICKING A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHEAST...RADAR SHOWING A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED BAND
OF SHOWERS OVER SW OREGON. THIS MAY AFFECT LANE COUNTY FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. OVERALL THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS THE TROUGH TRACKS INTO
NORTHERN CA WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDING AND INSTABILITY INDICIES DO NOT
SUPPORT CONVECTION...AS WELL A WESTERLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHERE A DYING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT
APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE DRYING.

FOR SATURDAY...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUROCKMAN /26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY
LOWER A BIT AS THIS HAPPENS...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY
VFR. THE COAST MAY SEE SOME LOCAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT THE COAST TONIGHT...SPREADING
INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO KAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
AS WELL.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS TODAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND.
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 10Z TO 12Z...CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MIGHT
GUST TO 15 OR EVEN 20 KT.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6 FT TODAY AND 5 FT FRIDAY WITH A
MIXTURE OF 16 TO 18 SECOND SOUTHWEST SWELL AND AROUND 10 SECOND
NORTHWEST SWELL. SEAS THEN BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT SATURDAY IN THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT
SUNDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 181003
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES OFF THE N CALIF COAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IS IT
MOVES INTO N CALIF THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS...WITH MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGH SAGGING OFF THE WEST COAST
IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITHIN THE
TROUGH LAY OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ESTABLISHED A MILD AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH 2 AM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING FOR THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND SCARCE. THE SOUTH WA COAST AND NORTH
OREGON COAST RECEIVED AROUND 0.10 INCH OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE FROM A WEAK LOW OFF
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH SO PCPN
SHOULD TAPER OFF SOON. THE LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS KICKING A
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHEAST...RADAR SHOWING A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED BAND
OF SHOWERS OVER SW OREGON. THIS MAY AFFECT LANE COUNTY FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. OVERALL THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS THE TROUGH TRACKS INTO
NORTHERN CA WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDING AND INSTABILITY INDICIES DO NOT
SUPPORT CONVECTION...AS WELL A WESTERLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHERE A DYING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT
APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE DRYING.

FOR SATURDAY...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUROCKMAN /26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY
LOWER A BIT AS THIS HAPPENS...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY
VFR. THE COAST MAY SEE SOME LOCAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT THE COAST TONIGHT...SPREADING
INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO KAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
AS WELL.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS TODAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND.
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT...AROUND 10Z TO 12Z...CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND EXTEND
NORTH ALONG THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLIES SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL
WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MIGHT
GUST TO 15 OR EVEN 20 KT.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6 FT TODAY AND 5 FT FRIDAY WITH A
MIXTURE OF 16 TO 18 SECOND SOUTHWEST SWELL AND AROUND 10 SECOND
NORTHWEST SWELL. SEAS THEN BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT SATURDAY IN THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLIES...DROPPING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5 FT
SUNDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 180959
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
255 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS NEAR THE COAST AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE TROUGH IS
SPLITTING AS IT MOVES INLAND WITH THE NORTHERN SECTION IN WASHINGTON
AND THE SOUTHERN SECTION IN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE TWO BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION ON RADAR AND MODELS. ONE IS NEAR THE CASCADES ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE SECOND ONE IS IN EASTERN GRANT
COUNTY...WALLOWA COUNTY...AND BAKER COUNTY. HRRR SHOWS THE FIRST
BAND REMAINING IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. THE SECOND BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
STREAK. HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND REMAINING SEPARATE AND MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE OREGON BY 16Z. THE MORNING FORECAST HAS THE TWO SEPARATE
BANDS...THEN THE FIRST BAND WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
OREGON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OREGON WHERE THE DIFFLUENCE FROM THE SPLITTING TROUGH IS
ADDED TO THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN IDAHO BY 6Z/2300 PDT WITH RAIN SHOWERS
ENDING EXCEPT FOR OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...00Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE VERY
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OVER FORECAST AREA AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS SHOW CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS FOR
TUESDAY AS WELL WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREADS EASTWARD TO
130-140W. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING THE AXIS OF AN OPEN
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO 132W BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOWEST HEIGHTS IN THE OVERALL TROUGH NEAR 140W WHERE A CLOSED
LOW WITH MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS DEVELOPS IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SO I HAVE INCREASED POPS A TAD TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SPREADS INCREASING CLOUDS, MOISTURE, AND RAIN TO THE
CASCADES JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED, THE GFS IS FASTER IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE TROUGH AXIS TO
THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH
AXIS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS PHASING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS
RESULTS IN THE ECMWF TAKING LONGER TO SPREAD RAIN TO THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. AS SUCH
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT
KDLS...KRDM...KBDN...KPDT AND KALW TODAY WITH POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM AT KRDM AND KBDN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE VFR
DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  53  80  52 /  20  10   0   0
ALW  83  59  80  57 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  86  57  85  51 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  82  56  84  54 /  30  10   0   0
HRI  84  54  85  48 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  79  57  83  52 /  30  10   0   0
RDM  76  41  79  40 /  20  20   0   0
LGD  82  50  79  44 /  20  20   0   0
GCD  80  49  81  47 /  20  20   0   0
DLS  79  55  83  52 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPDT 180959
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
255 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS NEAR THE COAST AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE TROUGH IS
SPLITTING AS IT MOVES INLAND WITH THE NORTHERN SECTION IN WASHINGTON
AND THE SOUTHERN SECTION IN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE TWO BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION ON RADAR AND MODELS. ONE IS NEAR THE CASCADES ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE SECOND ONE IS IN EASTERN GRANT
COUNTY...WALLOWA COUNTY...AND BAKER COUNTY. HRRR SHOWS THE FIRST
BAND REMAINING IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. THE SECOND BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
STREAK. HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND REMAINING SEPARATE AND MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE OREGON BY 16Z. THE MORNING FORECAST HAS THE TWO SEPARATE
BANDS...THEN THE FIRST BAND WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
OREGON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST OREGON WHERE THE DIFFLUENCE FROM THE SPLITTING TROUGH IS
ADDED TO THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN IDAHO BY 6Z/2300 PDT WITH RAIN SHOWERS
ENDING EXCEPT FOR OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...00Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE VERY
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OVER FORECAST AREA AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS SHOW CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS FOR
TUESDAY AS WELL WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREADS EASTWARD TO
130-140W. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING THE AXIS OF AN OPEN
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO 132W BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOWEST HEIGHTS IN THE OVERALL TROUGH NEAR 140W WHERE A CLOSED
LOW WITH MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS DEVELOPS IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SO I HAVE INCREASED POPS A TAD TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SPREADS INCREASING CLOUDS, MOISTURE, AND RAIN TO THE
CASCADES JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED, THE GFS IS FASTER IN TERMS OF BRINGING THE TROUGH AXIS TO
THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH
AXIS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS PHASING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS
RESULTS IN THE ECMWF TAKING LONGER TO SPREAD RAIN TO THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. AS SUCH
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT
KDLS...KRDM...KBDN...KPDT AND KALW TODAY WITH POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM AT KRDM AND KBDN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE VFR
DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  53  80  52 /  20  10   0   0
ALW  83  59  80  57 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  86  57  85  51 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  82  56  84  54 /  30  10   0   0
HRI  84  54  85  48 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  79  57  83  52 /  30  10   0   0
RDM  76  41  79  40 /  20  20   0   0
LGD  82  50  79  44 /  20  20   0   0
GCD  80  49  81  47 /  20  20   0   0
DLS  79  55  83  52 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/99/99









000
FXUS65 KBOI 180953
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
353 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW. BY AFTERNOON BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IDAHO WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS APART WITH SOUTHERN ENERGY
DROPPING ALONG THE CA COAST WHILE THE NORTHERN ENERGY MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY
WHERE SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. FRIDAY IS THE COOLEST DAY /THOUGH STILL ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/. TEMPS RISE 3-6 SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
AMPLIFIES. CHANGE IN THE WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO LOWER THE INFLUX
OF SMOKE FROM LARGE CA FIRES OVER THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CUT OFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN INTO WYOMING THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN THE POSITION
OF THE LOW WHICH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OUR AREA WILL
RECEIVE. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW WHILE
THE ECMWF...WHICH IS THE WET SOLUTION...BRINGS THE LOW CENTER NEAR
TWIN FALLS. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL ALSO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS WELL...AS THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER AND THE ECMWF IS WET AND COOLER. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A
SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS FAR AS PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
THE MODELS HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
SOMETIME AFTER WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AT
THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND BEYOND LOOK MUCH COOLER WITH
THIS INCOMING TROUGH WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND MTNS OF
SW ID TODAY WHILE ENDING IN SE OREGON BY LATE MORNING. STRONG SW
WINDS ALOFT OF 35-45 KTS OVER SE OREGON WILL WEAKEN TO 20 KTS OR
LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KTS
ACROSS SE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER SW IDAHO.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....DG




000
FXUS65 KBOI 180953
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
353 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW. BY AFTERNOON BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IDAHO WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS APART WITH SOUTHERN ENERGY
DROPPING ALONG THE CA COAST WHILE THE NORTHERN ENERGY MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY
WHERE SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. FRIDAY IS THE COOLEST DAY /THOUGH STILL ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/. TEMPS RISE 3-6 SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
AMPLIFIES. CHANGE IN THE WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO LOWER THE INFLUX
OF SMOKE FROM LARGE CA FIRES OVER THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CUT OFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN INTO WYOMING THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN THE POSITION
OF THE LOW WHICH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OUR AREA WILL
RECEIVE. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW WHILE
THE ECMWF...WHICH IS THE WET SOLUTION...BRINGS THE LOW CENTER NEAR
TWIN FALLS. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL ALSO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS WELL...AS THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER AND THE ECMWF IS WET AND COOLER. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A
SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS FAR AS PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
THE MODELS HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
SOMETIME AFTER WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AT
THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND BEYOND LOOK MUCH COOLER WITH
THIS INCOMING TROUGH WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND MTNS OF
SW ID TODAY WHILE ENDING IN SE OREGON BY LATE MORNING. STRONG SW
WINDS ALOFT OF 35-45 KTS OVER SE OREGON WILL WEAKEN TO 20 KTS OR
LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KTS
ACROSS SE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER SW IDAHO.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....DG




000
FXUS65 KBOI 180953
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
353 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW. BY AFTERNOON BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IDAHO WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS APART WITH SOUTHERN ENERGY
DROPPING ALONG THE CA COAST WHILE THE NORTHERN ENERGY MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY
WHERE SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. FRIDAY IS THE COOLEST DAY /THOUGH STILL ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/. TEMPS RISE 3-6 SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
AMPLIFIES. CHANGE IN THE WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO LOWER THE INFLUX
OF SMOKE FROM LARGE CA FIRES OVER THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CUT OFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN INTO WYOMING THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN THE POSITION
OF THE LOW WHICH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OUR AREA WILL
RECEIVE. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW WHILE
THE ECMWF...WHICH IS THE WET SOLUTION...BRINGS THE LOW CENTER NEAR
TWIN FALLS. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL ALSO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS WELL...AS THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER AND THE ECMWF IS WET AND COOLER. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A
SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS FAR AS PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
THE MODELS HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
SOMETIME AFTER WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AT
THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND BEYOND LOOK MUCH COOLER WITH
THIS INCOMING TROUGH WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND MTNS OF
SW ID TODAY WHILE ENDING IN SE OREGON BY LATE MORNING. STRONG SW
WINDS ALOFT OF 35-45 KTS OVER SE OREGON WILL WEAKEN TO 20 KTS OR
LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KTS
ACROSS SE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER SW IDAHO.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....DG




000
FXUS65 KBOI 180953
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
353 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW. BY AFTERNOON BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IDAHO WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS APART WITH SOUTHERN ENERGY
DROPPING ALONG THE CA COAST WHILE THE NORTHERN ENERGY MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL DRY OUT...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY
WHERE SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. FRIDAY IS THE COOLEST DAY /THOUGH STILL ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/. TEMPS RISE 3-6 SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
AMPLIFIES. CHANGE IN THE WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO LOWER THE INFLUX
OF SMOKE FROM LARGE CA FIRES OVER THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CUT OFF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN INTO WYOMING THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN THE POSITION
OF THE LOW WHICH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OUR AREA WILL
RECEIVE. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW WHILE
THE ECMWF...WHICH IS THE WET SOLUTION...BRINGS THE LOW CENTER NEAR
TWIN FALLS. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL ALSO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURES AS WELL...AS THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER AND THE ECMWF IS WET AND COOLER. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A
SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS FAR AS PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
THE MODELS HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
SOMETIME AFTER WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AT
THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND BEYOND LOOK MUCH COOLER WITH
THIS INCOMING TROUGH WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND MTNS OF
SW ID TODAY WHILE ENDING IN SE OREGON BY LATE MORNING. STRONG SW
WINDS ALOFT OF 35-45 KTS OVER SE OREGON WILL WEAKEN TO 20 KTS OR
LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KTS
ACROSS SE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER SW IDAHO.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....DG




000
FXUS66 KMFR 180352
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
852 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY.
MOIST AIR SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT AN AREA
OF RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ALSO
JOSEPHINE AND CURRY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BULLS-EYE FOR RAINFALL WAS IN AND AROUND CAVE JUNCTION WHERE
0.25-0.35 OF AN INCH FELL IN JUST A FEW HOURS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. STEADY RAINFALL WAS ALSO REPORTED FOR A FEW HOURS OVER
AND NEAR THE ONION FIRE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE CASCADES.

MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY GOOD WITH RESPECT TO WHERE RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OF ALL THE GUIDANCE, THE SREF
HAS BEEN HANDLING IT THE BEST...SO HAVE PLACED MORE EMPHASIS ON
ITS SOLUTION REGARDING POP/QPF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED AREA
OF RAIN DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND MOVE INTO THE COAST DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL WEAKEN. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND ALSO THE EAST SIDE, BUT THE BEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM THE CASCADES SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WEAK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THAT THE RISK OF SHOWERS WILL END. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN RAPID WARMING AND
DRYING ACROSS THE CWA. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 18/00Z TAF CYCLE...
GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN IMPACT OF A LOW
GRADUALLY PUSHING INLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE LOWERED
CEILINGS IN SHOWERS.  RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY
PUSHING INLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF LOCALIZED
IFR TO LIFR ALONG THE COAST IN FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING  AS
WELL AS AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE
COAST.   WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND, EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AND MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. PARTIAL  MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR FROM THE
CASCADES WESTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VALLEY CEILINGS WILL BE
MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE
CASCADES WEST.  AS THE LOW SHIFTS INLAND THURSDAY, EXPECT VFR OVER
MOST THE AREA BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY  AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 630 PM PDT WED 17 SEP 2014...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STEEP LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO BEING
DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM
PDT THIS EVENING AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN MOST AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE RECOVERING. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE
THE CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED, BUT MOUNTAIN WAVES ARE FORMING WHICH IS
AN INDICATION OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WINDS HAVE BEEN CRANKING UP
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND ARE STRONGEST OVER THE RIDGES AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES. ALSO WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW IN THE SHASTA VALLEY
AND AT LAST REPORT WEED WAS REPORTING A PEAK GUST OF 52 MPH. EAST OF
THE CASCADES KLAMATH FALLS REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 41 MPH. THE
MODELS OVERALL ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE WIND SPEEDS AND WILL
GENERALLY BE GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS.
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TOWARDS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 39N/132W IS
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. SO FAR, A COUPLE OF TICKS ON THE RAIN
GAGE HAS SHOWN UP IN CURRY COUNTY, BUT WE`LL SEE MORE AS RADAR
RETURNS SHOW A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS CURRY
AND WESTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY. EVEN THEN, WERE ONLY EXPECTING BETWEEN
0.15 AND 0.25 OF AN INCH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHTER AND MOST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. ALSO MODELS
ARE HINTING AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE WATERS AND
POSSIBLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND WITH A COOL POOL ALOFT MOVING
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING, THEREFORE FELT IT WAS BEST TO PUT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. ALSO WEAK INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FROM AROUND
CRATER LAKE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL BRING SOME GOOD NEWS. FIRST, IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY COMPARED
TODAY AND SECOND WE`LL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH SPLITTING, THIS WILL TEND TO PUT A CAP ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME, WERE EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.10-0.20 OF AN
INCH FOR THE CASCADES, UP TO 0.10 FOR THE COAST RANGE, 0.10 OR LESS
FOR MOST WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AND 0.05 OR LESS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY FROM THE CASCADES EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME INSTABILITY EXIST
IN EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY AND EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY.

THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPLIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. ANY SHOWERS WILL END THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OREGON COAST AND WE COULD SEE INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH MODERATE TO POOR RECOVERIES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
AND SOUTH COAST RANGE IN OREGON.

THE EC AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER BROAD
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING NEAR 140W AND THIS WILL KICK THE UPPER LOW IN
CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON, BUT IT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO IMPACT FOR US.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST MONDAY AND
THE GFS AND EC SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES
IN THE AFTERNOON TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN REMARKABLE GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTING NEXT WEDNESDAY. OF NOTE THE
PREVIOUS 2 GFS RUNS (6Z AND LAST NIGHTS 0Z) WERE SHOWING A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE EC WAS STILL SHOWING A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN. INTERESTING ENOUGH, THE RMOP SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY (34%
PROBABILITY) OF A STRONG RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE REGION IN THE
SAME TIME PERIOD, BUT THIS WAS BASED IN PART ON LAST NIGHTS (0Z)
RUN. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 0Z RUN WILL SHOW
TONIGHT. FOR NOW WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO INCREASE POPS ENOUGH FOR A
CHANCE MENTION, BUT IF THE EC AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THE
POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. IF WE TAKE THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AT FACE VALUE, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IN QUITE SOME TIME. AGAIN THIS
IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THE MODELS TREND
OVER TIME. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/MAP/CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 180352
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
852 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY.
MOIST AIR SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT AN AREA
OF RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ALSO
JOSEPHINE AND CURRY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BULLS-EYE FOR RAINFALL WAS IN AND AROUND CAVE JUNCTION WHERE
0.25-0.35 OF AN INCH FELL IN JUST A FEW HOURS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. STEADY RAINFALL WAS ALSO REPORTED FOR A FEW HOURS OVER
AND NEAR THE ONION FIRE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE CASCADES.

MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY GOOD WITH RESPECT TO WHERE RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OF ALL THE GUIDANCE, THE SREF
HAS BEEN HANDLING IT THE BEST...SO HAVE PLACED MORE EMPHASIS ON
ITS SOLUTION REGARDING POP/QPF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED AREA
OF RAIN DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND MOVE INTO THE COAST DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL WEAKEN. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND ALSO THE EAST SIDE, BUT THE BEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM THE CASCADES SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WEAK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THAT THE RISK OF SHOWERS WILL END. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN RAPID WARMING AND
DRYING ACROSS THE CWA. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 18/00Z TAF CYCLE...
GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN IMPACT OF A LOW
GRADUALLY PUSHING INLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE LOWERED
CEILINGS IN SHOWERS.  RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY
PUSHING INLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF LOCALIZED
IFR TO LIFR ALONG THE COAST IN FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING  AS
WELL AS AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE
COAST.   WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND, EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AND MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. PARTIAL  MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR FROM THE
CASCADES WESTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VALLEY CEILINGS WILL BE
MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE
CASCADES WEST.  AS THE LOW SHIFTS INLAND THURSDAY, EXPECT VFR OVER
MOST THE AREA BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY  AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 630 PM PDT WED 17 SEP 2014...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STEEP LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO BEING
DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM
PDT THIS EVENING AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN MOST AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE RECOVERING. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE
THE CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED, BUT MOUNTAIN WAVES ARE FORMING WHICH IS
AN INDICATION OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WINDS HAVE BEEN CRANKING UP
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND ARE STRONGEST OVER THE RIDGES AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES. ALSO WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW IN THE SHASTA VALLEY
AND AT LAST REPORT WEED WAS REPORTING A PEAK GUST OF 52 MPH. EAST OF
THE CASCADES KLAMATH FALLS REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 41 MPH. THE
MODELS OVERALL ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE WIND SPEEDS AND WILL
GENERALLY BE GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS.
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TOWARDS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 39N/132W IS
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. SO FAR, A COUPLE OF TICKS ON THE RAIN
GAGE HAS SHOWN UP IN CURRY COUNTY, BUT WE`LL SEE MORE AS RADAR
RETURNS SHOW A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS CURRY
AND WESTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY. EVEN THEN, WERE ONLY EXPECTING BETWEEN
0.15 AND 0.25 OF AN INCH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHTER AND MOST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. ALSO MODELS
ARE HINTING AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE WATERS AND
POSSIBLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND WITH A COOL POOL ALOFT MOVING
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING, THEREFORE FELT IT WAS BEST TO PUT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. ALSO WEAK INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FROM AROUND
CRATER LAKE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL BRING SOME GOOD NEWS. FIRST, IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY COMPARED
TODAY AND SECOND WE`LL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH SPLITTING, THIS WILL TEND TO PUT A CAP ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME, WERE EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.10-0.20 OF AN
INCH FOR THE CASCADES, UP TO 0.10 FOR THE COAST RANGE, 0.10 OR LESS
FOR MOST WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AND 0.05 OR LESS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY FROM THE CASCADES EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME INSTABILITY EXIST
IN EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY AND EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY.

THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPLIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. ANY SHOWERS WILL END THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OREGON COAST AND WE COULD SEE INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH MODERATE TO POOR RECOVERIES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
AND SOUTH COAST RANGE IN OREGON.

THE EC AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER BROAD
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING NEAR 140W AND THIS WILL KICK THE UPPER LOW IN
CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON, BUT IT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO IMPACT FOR US.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST MONDAY AND
THE GFS AND EC SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES
IN THE AFTERNOON TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN REMARKABLE GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTING NEXT WEDNESDAY. OF NOTE THE
PREVIOUS 2 GFS RUNS (6Z AND LAST NIGHTS 0Z) WERE SHOWING A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE EC WAS STILL SHOWING A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN. INTERESTING ENOUGH, THE RMOP SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY (34%
PROBABILITY) OF A STRONG RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE REGION IN THE
SAME TIME PERIOD, BUT THIS WAS BASED IN PART ON LAST NIGHTS (0Z)
RUN. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 0Z RUN WILL SHOW
TONIGHT. FOR NOW WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO INCREASE POPS ENOUGH FOR A
CHANCE MENTION, BUT IF THE EC AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THE
POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. IF WE TAKE THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AT FACE VALUE, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IN QUITE SOME TIME. AGAIN THIS
IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THE MODELS TREND
OVER TIME. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/MAP/CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 180352
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
852 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY.
MOIST AIR SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT AN AREA
OF RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ALSO
JOSEPHINE AND CURRY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BULLS-EYE FOR RAINFALL WAS IN AND AROUND CAVE JUNCTION WHERE
0.25-0.35 OF AN INCH FELL IN JUST A FEW HOURS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. STEADY RAINFALL WAS ALSO REPORTED FOR A FEW HOURS OVER
AND NEAR THE ONION FIRE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE CASCADES.

MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY GOOD WITH RESPECT TO WHERE RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OF ALL THE GUIDANCE, THE SREF
HAS BEEN HANDLING IT THE BEST...SO HAVE PLACED MORE EMPHASIS ON
ITS SOLUTION REGARDING POP/QPF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED AREA
OF RAIN DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND MOVE INTO THE COAST DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL WEAKEN. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND ALSO THE EAST SIDE, BUT THE BEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM THE CASCADES SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WEAK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THAT THE RISK OF SHOWERS WILL END. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN RAPID WARMING AND
DRYING ACROSS THE CWA. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 18/00Z TAF CYCLE...
GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN IMPACT OF A LOW
GRADUALLY PUSHING INLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE LOWERED
CEILINGS IN SHOWERS.  RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY
PUSHING INLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF LOCALIZED
IFR TO LIFR ALONG THE COAST IN FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING  AS
WELL AS AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE
COAST.   WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND, EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AND MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. PARTIAL  MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR FROM THE
CASCADES WESTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VALLEY CEILINGS WILL BE
MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE
CASCADES WEST.  AS THE LOW SHIFTS INLAND THURSDAY, EXPECT VFR OVER
MOST THE AREA BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY  AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 630 PM PDT WED 17 SEP 2014...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STEEP LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO BEING
DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM
PDT THIS EVENING AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN MOST AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE RECOVERING. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE
THE CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED, BUT MOUNTAIN WAVES ARE FORMING WHICH IS
AN INDICATION OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WINDS HAVE BEEN CRANKING UP
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND ARE STRONGEST OVER THE RIDGES AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES. ALSO WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW IN THE SHASTA VALLEY
AND AT LAST REPORT WEED WAS REPORTING A PEAK GUST OF 52 MPH. EAST OF
THE CASCADES KLAMATH FALLS REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 41 MPH. THE
MODELS OVERALL ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE WIND SPEEDS AND WILL
GENERALLY BE GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS.
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TOWARDS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 39N/132W IS
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. SO FAR, A COUPLE OF TICKS ON THE RAIN
GAGE HAS SHOWN UP IN CURRY COUNTY, BUT WE`LL SEE MORE AS RADAR
RETURNS SHOW A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS CURRY
AND WESTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY. EVEN THEN, WERE ONLY EXPECTING BETWEEN
0.15 AND 0.25 OF AN INCH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHTER AND MOST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. ALSO MODELS
ARE HINTING AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE WATERS AND
POSSIBLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND WITH A COOL POOL ALOFT MOVING
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING, THEREFORE FELT IT WAS BEST TO PUT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. ALSO WEAK INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FROM AROUND
CRATER LAKE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL BRING SOME GOOD NEWS. FIRST, IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY COMPARED
TODAY AND SECOND WE`LL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH SPLITTING, THIS WILL TEND TO PUT A CAP ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME, WERE EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.10-0.20 OF AN
INCH FOR THE CASCADES, UP TO 0.10 FOR THE COAST RANGE, 0.10 OR LESS
FOR MOST WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AND 0.05 OR LESS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY FROM THE CASCADES EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME INSTABILITY EXIST
IN EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY AND EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY.

THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPLIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. ANY SHOWERS WILL END THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OREGON COAST AND WE COULD SEE INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH MODERATE TO POOR RECOVERIES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
AND SOUTH COAST RANGE IN OREGON.

THE EC AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER BROAD
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING NEAR 140W AND THIS WILL KICK THE UPPER LOW IN
CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON, BUT IT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO IMPACT FOR US.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST MONDAY AND
THE GFS AND EC SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES
IN THE AFTERNOON TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN REMARKABLE GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTING NEXT WEDNESDAY. OF NOTE THE
PREVIOUS 2 GFS RUNS (6Z AND LAST NIGHTS 0Z) WERE SHOWING A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE EC WAS STILL SHOWING A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN. INTERESTING ENOUGH, THE RMOP SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY (34%
PROBABILITY) OF A STRONG RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE REGION IN THE
SAME TIME PERIOD, BUT THIS WAS BASED IN PART ON LAST NIGHTS (0Z)
RUN. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 0Z RUN WILL SHOW
TONIGHT. FOR NOW WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO INCREASE POPS ENOUGH FOR A
CHANCE MENTION, BUT IF THE EC AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THE
POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. IF WE TAKE THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AT FACE VALUE, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IN QUITE SOME TIME. AGAIN THIS
IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THE MODELS TREND
OVER TIME. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/MAP/CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 180352
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
852 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY.
MOIST AIR SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT AN AREA
OF RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ALSO
JOSEPHINE AND CURRY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BULLS-EYE FOR RAINFALL WAS IN AND AROUND CAVE JUNCTION WHERE
0.25-0.35 OF AN INCH FELL IN JUST A FEW HOURS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. STEADY RAINFALL WAS ALSO REPORTED FOR A FEW HOURS OVER
AND NEAR THE ONION FIRE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE CASCADES.

MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY GOOD WITH RESPECT TO WHERE RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OF ALL THE GUIDANCE, THE SREF
HAS BEEN HANDLING IT THE BEST...SO HAVE PLACED MORE EMPHASIS ON
ITS SOLUTION REGARDING POP/QPF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED AREA
OF RAIN DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND MOVE INTO THE COAST DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL WEAKEN. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND ALSO THE EAST SIDE, BUT THE BEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM THE CASCADES SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WEAK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THAT THE RISK OF SHOWERS WILL END. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN RAPID WARMING AND
DRYING ACROSS THE CWA. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 18/00Z TAF CYCLE...
GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN IMPACT OF A LOW
GRADUALLY PUSHING INLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE LOWERED
CEILINGS IN SHOWERS.  RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY
PUSHING INLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF LOCALIZED
IFR TO LIFR ALONG THE COAST IN FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING  AS
WELL AS AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE
COAST.   WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND, EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AND MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. PARTIAL  MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR FROM THE
CASCADES WESTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VALLEY CEILINGS WILL BE
MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE
CASCADES WEST.  AS THE LOW SHIFTS INLAND THURSDAY, EXPECT VFR OVER
MOST THE AREA BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY  AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CASCADES EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 630 PM PDT WED 17 SEP 2014...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STEEP LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO BEING
DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM
PDT THIS EVENING AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN MOST AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE RECOVERING. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE
THE CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED, BUT MOUNTAIN WAVES ARE FORMING WHICH IS
AN INDICATION OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WINDS HAVE BEEN CRANKING UP
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND ARE STRONGEST OVER THE RIDGES AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES. ALSO WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW IN THE SHASTA VALLEY
AND AT LAST REPORT WEED WAS REPORTING A PEAK GUST OF 52 MPH. EAST OF
THE CASCADES KLAMATH FALLS REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 41 MPH. THE
MODELS OVERALL ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE WIND SPEEDS AND WILL
GENERALLY BE GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS.
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TOWARDS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 39N/132W IS
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. SO FAR, A COUPLE OF TICKS ON THE RAIN
GAGE HAS SHOWN UP IN CURRY COUNTY, BUT WE`LL SEE MORE AS RADAR
RETURNS SHOW A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS CURRY
AND WESTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY. EVEN THEN, WERE ONLY EXPECTING BETWEEN
0.15 AND 0.25 OF AN INCH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHTER AND MOST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. ALSO MODELS
ARE HINTING AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE WATERS AND
POSSIBLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND WITH A COOL POOL ALOFT MOVING
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING, THEREFORE FELT IT WAS BEST TO PUT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. ALSO WEAK INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FROM AROUND
CRATER LAKE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL BRING SOME GOOD NEWS. FIRST, IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY COMPARED
TODAY AND SECOND WE`LL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH SPLITTING, THIS WILL TEND TO PUT A CAP ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME, WERE EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.10-0.20 OF AN
INCH FOR THE CASCADES, UP TO 0.10 FOR THE COAST RANGE, 0.10 OR LESS
FOR MOST WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AND 0.05 OR LESS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY FROM THE CASCADES EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME INSTABILITY EXIST
IN EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY AND EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY.

THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPLIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. ANY SHOWERS WILL END THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OREGON COAST AND WE COULD SEE INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH MODERATE TO POOR RECOVERIES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
AND SOUTH COAST RANGE IN OREGON.

THE EC AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER BROAD
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING NEAR 140W AND THIS WILL KICK THE UPPER LOW IN
CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON, BUT IT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO IMPACT FOR US.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST MONDAY AND
THE GFS AND EC SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES
IN THE AFTERNOON TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN REMARKABLE GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTING NEXT WEDNESDAY. OF NOTE THE
PREVIOUS 2 GFS RUNS (6Z AND LAST NIGHTS 0Z) WERE SHOWING A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE EC WAS STILL SHOWING A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN. INTERESTING ENOUGH, THE RMOP SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY (34%
PROBABILITY) OF A STRONG RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE REGION IN THE
SAME TIME PERIOD, BUT THIS WAS BASED IN PART ON LAST NIGHTS (0Z)
RUN. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 0Z RUN WILL SHOW
TONIGHT. FOR NOW WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO INCREASE POPS ENOUGH FOR A
CHANCE MENTION, BUT IF THE EC AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THE
POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. IF WE TAKE THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AT FACE VALUE, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IN QUITE SOME TIME. AGAIN THIS
IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THE MODELS TREND
OVER TIME. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/MAP/CC







000
FXUS66 KPQR 180335
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
834 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES OFF THE N CALIF COAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IS IT
MOVES INTO N CALIF THROUGH THU EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS...WITH MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND. COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES IN OVERALL FORECASTS AND TRENDS. MOST
SHOWERS THIS EVENING CONTINUE TO BE OVER SW OREGON AND ALONG THE
COAST. DECENT RAINFALL OVER SW WASHINGTON AND WILLAPA HILLS WHERE
0.25 INCH FELL AT HUCKLEBERRY RAWS IN HILLS ABOVE LONGVIEW...AND
ABOUT 0.15 INCH NEAR HOQUIAM. NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS ALONG THE OREGON COAST AND TRACE AMOUNTS OVER THE INLAND
VALLEYS. OVERALL...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN BEST THREAT OF ACTUAL RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OVER
COASTAL AREAS DOWN INTO SW OREGON.

WILL MAINTAIN MINOR THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS EVENING
OVER LANE COUNTY CASCADES AS WEAK ANOMALY AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 90KT JET WILL BRUSH THAT AREA TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION JUST OFFSHORE AND A SUBTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL
CONCENTRATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COUPLED WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB...MEASURABLE RAINFALL OR MORE THAN
0.01 INCH LOOKS LIKELY ON THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES.
WETTING RAINS WHICH ARE RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH STILL DO NOT
APPEAR ALL THAT PROMISING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHERE A DYING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUROCKEMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM N OVER
WESTERN OREGON THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WERE PRIMARILY VFR ACROSS
THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR SOME SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN
AND FOG ALONG THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST
AREAS THROUGH 18Z...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST AFTER 09Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRI MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING N UP THE
COAST LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN N WINDS...POTENTIALLY
UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. A RETURN
TO QUIETER CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TO RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS A WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVING
SAT COULD DRIVE SEAS UP CLOSE TO 10 FT.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&



$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 180240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...WARM UNDER THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SRN TWIN
FALLS COUNTY. LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS INSIST THAT SHOWERS WILL
FORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SE OREGON.
ALREADY SEEING ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUD AND SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH TO MAKE IT SOMEWHAT BELIEVABLE. THEREFORE
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE
THE FRONT MAY BE EVEN WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OWING TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SLOWER TIMING. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT A BARELY NOTICEABLE FROPA AFTER AROUND 12Z
IN SE OREGON AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IN SW IDAHO. A SECOND...STRONGER
FRONT APPEARS HEADED IN THU NIGHT. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS. AFTER 06Z FOR
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND AFTER 09Z FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH
GUSTY WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS DESPITE
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM UPPER TROUGH OFF THE OREGON COAST. A
LOW HAS FORMED IN THE TROUGH NEAR 39/130 WHICH WILL HELP SPLIT THE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY.  THE LOW ITSELF WILL GO DOWN THE
CALIF COAST THU AND FRI WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
SHEARS EAST INTO MONTANA...LEAVING OUR CWA IN THE COL BETWEEN THEM.
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
OUR OREGON ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND IN IDAHO ZONES THURSDAY.  MAIN
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.  HOWEVER A BETTER CHANCE WILL EXIST
IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND SERN OWYHEE COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE ENTRAINED FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM ODILE IN ARIZONA.  MODELS HAVE SURPRISINGLY LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON OUR NRN BORDER THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
NEARBY.  DRYING FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.  MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY WILL COOL 8-10 DEGREES FROM TODAY WITH A FEW DEGREES
FURTHER COOLING OF BOTH MIN AND MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TO BE DRY AND MILD. HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 5 ABOVE
NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OR SUNNY. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2000 MILES WSW OF BOISE...THAT
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE PACNW AND EVENTUALLY
SPREADS TO INTERIOR SW CANADA AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS LEAVES
OUR AREA OPEN TO INFLUENCE /MOISTURE INSTABILITY AND LIFT/ FROM THE
UPPER LOW MEANDERING FROM OUR W TO S IN THE SHORT TERM. PREFER A
GEFS/EC/GFS BLEND. SO THE LOW NOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NNE TO THE NV-
ID BORDER SUNDAY MORNING AND ACROSS SW- TO S-CENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY RESPECTIVELY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM THE CUTOFF LOW. MODELS AGREE THAT A TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING AROUND A HALF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF SE OREGON/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/
BOISE MOUNTAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT...BRINGING US TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ636.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....VM/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 180240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...WARM UNDER THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SRN TWIN
FALLS COUNTY. LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS INSIST THAT SHOWERS WILL
FORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SE OREGON.
ALREADY SEEING ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUD AND SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH TO MAKE IT SOMEWHAT BELIEVABLE. THEREFORE
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE
THE FRONT MAY BE EVEN WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OWING TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SLOWER TIMING. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT A BARELY NOTICEABLE FROPA AFTER AROUND 12Z
IN SE OREGON AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IN SW IDAHO. A SECOND...STRONGER
FRONT APPEARS HEADED IN THU NIGHT. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS. AFTER 06Z FOR
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND AFTER 09Z FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH
GUSTY WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS DESPITE
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM UPPER TROUGH OFF THE OREGON COAST. A
LOW HAS FORMED IN THE TROUGH NEAR 39/130 WHICH WILL HELP SPLIT THE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY.  THE LOW ITSELF WILL GO DOWN THE
CALIF COAST THU AND FRI WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
SHEARS EAST INTO MONTANA...LEAVING OUR CWA IN THE COL BETWEEN THEM.
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
OUR OREGON ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND IN IDAHO ZONES THURSDAY.  MAIN
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.  HOWEVER A BETTER CHANCE WILL EXIST
IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND SERN OWYHEE COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE ENTRAINED FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM ODILE IN ARIZONA.  MODELS HAVE SURPRISINGLY LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON OUR NRN BORDER THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
NEARBY.  DRYING FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.  MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY WILL COOL 8-10 DEGREES FROM TODAY WITH A FEW DEGREES
FURTHER COOLING OF BOTH MIN AND MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TO BE DRY AND MILD. HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 5 ABOVE
NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OR SUNNY. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2000 MILES WSW OF BOISE...THAT
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE PACNW AND EVENTUALLY
SPREADS TO INTERIOR SW CANADA AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS LEAVES
OUR AREA OPEN TO INFLUENCE /MOISTURE INSTABILITY AND LIFT/ FROM THE
UPPER LOW MEANDERING FROM OUR W TO S IN THE SHORT TERM. PREFER A
GEFS/EC/GFS BLEND. SO THE LOW NOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NNE TO THE NV-
ID BORDER SUNDAY MORNING AND ACROSS SW- TO S-CENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY RESPECTIVELY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM THE CUTOFF LOW. MODELS AGREE THAT A TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING AROUND A HALF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF SE OREGON/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/
BOISE MOUNTAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT...BRINGING US TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ636.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....VM/AB



000
FXUS66 KPDT 180220 CCA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
712 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...PRECIPITATION IS STAYING MOSTLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM GETS READY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS WARM AND DRY AND WINDS ARE A LITTLE
STRONGER THIS EVENING THAN DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE ALSO HAVE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST
FROM CENTRAL OREGON NORTHEAST ACROSS THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AND THE
BLUE AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS SYSTEM SPLITS...AS IT
MOVES INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS NEXT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER
WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT
KDLS...KRDM...KBDN...KPDT AND KALW THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM AT KRDM AND KBDN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT EXPECT POSSIBLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE VFR DUE TO
THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 205 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS RETREATING TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION BUT PRECIPTATION THUS FAR HAS
REMAINED WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE TROUGH WILL BE UNDERGOING A SPLIT
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO THE POINT THAT IS WILL MAINLY BE SOME CLOUDS BUT VERY LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPROACH
THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT OF WHICH SOME COULD SPREAD ONTO THE EAST
SIDE. ALSO WATCHING FOR SOME CONVECTION TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD CLIP THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THE TROUGH
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE MARKED WITH MAINLY CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SO
CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF A
BUILDING RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER BASIN BY SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO DOMINANT RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...GFS IS FASTER IN PUSHING IT EAST AS THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME...GOING TO LEAN TOWARDS ECMWF AS IT IS
SLOWER AT MOVING THE RIDGE EAST AND SEEMS TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY.  AS A RESULT...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER..COULD SEE SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWA AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME...EXPECT ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD OVER...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY ON FINAL
TRACK OF SYSTEM.  BY TUESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THIS COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER FAVORED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.  BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AREA WIDE. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE
STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE TROUGH SO WENT WITH A MIX BUT STAYING ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.  IF WE ARE LUCKY...IT COULD BE OUR FIRST WETTING RAIN
IN QUITE SOME TIME.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
BUT SLOWLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  81  58  80 /   0  20  10   0
ALW  63  81  61  80 /   0  20  10   0
PSC  57  84  58  83 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  57  79  54  82 /  10  10  10   0
HRI  57  83  58  83 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  55  78  57  81 /  10  20  10   0
RDM  51  75  45  78 /  10  20  20   0
LGD  54  80  51  76 /  10  20  20   0
GCD  50  78  49  78 /  10  20  20   0
DLS  62  80  59  84 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/81/88












000
FXUS66 KPDT 180212
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
712 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...PRECIPITATION IS STAYING MOSTLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM GETS READY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS WARM AND DRY AND WINDS ARE A LITTLE
STRONGER THIS EVENING THAN DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE ALSO HAVE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST
FROM CENTRAL OREGON NORTHEAST ACROSS THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AND THE
BLUE AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS SYSTEM SPLITS...AS IT
MOVES INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS NEXT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER
WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AT KDLS...KRDM
AND KBDN WITH POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT KRDM AND KBDN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT EXPECT POSSIBLY
GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE VFR DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 205 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS RETREATING TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION BUT PRECIPTATION THUS FAR HAS
REMAINED WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE TROUGH WILL BE UNDERGOING A SPLIT
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO THE POINT THAT IS WILL MAINLY BE SOME CLOUDS BUT VERY LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPROACH
THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT OF WHICH SOME COULD SPREAD ONTO THE EAST
SIDE. ALSO WATCHING FOR SOME CONVECTION TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD CLIP THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THE TROUGH
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE MARKED WITH MAINLY CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SO
CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF A
BUILDING RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER BASIN BY SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO DOMINANT RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...GFS IS FASTER IN PUSHING IT EAST AS THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME...GOING TO LEAN TOWARDS ECMWF AS IT IS
SLOWER AT MOVING THE RIDGE EAST AND SEEMS TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY.  AS A RESULT...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER..COULD SEE SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWA AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME...EXPECT ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD OVER...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY ON FINAL
TRACK OF SYSTEM.  BY TUESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THIS COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER FAVORED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.  BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AREA WIDE. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE
STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE TROUGH SO WENT WITH A MIX BUT STAYING ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.  IF WE ARE LUCKY...IT COULD BE OUR FIRST WETTING RAIN
IN QUITE SOME TIME.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
BUT SLOWLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  81  58  80 /   0  20  10   0
ALW  63  81  61  80 /   0  20  10   0
PSC  57  84  58  83 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  57  79  54  82 /  10  10  10   0
HRI  57  83  58  83 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  55  78  57  81 /  10  20  10   0
RDM  51  75  45  78 /  10  20  20   0
LGD  54  80  51  76 /  10  20  20   0
GCD  50  78  49  78 /  10  20  20   0
DLS  62  80  59  84 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/81/88








000
FXUS66 KPDT 180212
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
712 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...PRECIPITATION IS STAYING MOSTLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM GETS READY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS WARM AND DRY AND WINDS ARE A LITTLE
STRONGER THIS EVENING THAN DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE ALSO HAVE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST
FROM CENTRAL OREGON NORTHEAST ACROSS THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AND THE
BLUE AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS SYSTEM SPLITS...AS IT
MOVES INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS NEXT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER
WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AT KDLS...KRDM
AND KBDN WITH POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT KRDM AND KBDN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT EXPECT POSSIBLY
GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE VFR DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 205 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS RETREATING TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION BUT PRECIPTATION THUS FAR HAS
REMAINED WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE TROUGH WILL BE UNDERGOING A SPLIT
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO THE POINT THAT IS WILL MAINLY BE SOME CLOUDS BUT VERY LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPROACH
THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT OF WHICH SOME COULD SPREAD ONTO THE EAST
SIDE. ALSO WATCHING FOR SOME CONVECTION TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD CLIP THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THE TROUGH
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE MARKED WITH MAINLY CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SO
CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF A
BUILDING RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER BASIN BY SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO DOMINANT RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...GFS IS FASTER IN PUSHING IT EAST AS THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME...GOING TO LEAN TOWARDS ECMWF AS IT IS
SLOWER AT MOVING THE RIDGE EAST AND SEEMS TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY.  AS A RESULT...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER..COULD SEE SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWA AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME...EXPECT ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD OVER...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY ON FINAL
TRACK OF SYSTEM.  BY TUESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THIS COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER FAVORED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.  BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AREA WIDE. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE
STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE TROUGH SO WENT WITH A MIX BUT STAYING ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.  IF WE ARE LUCKY...IT COULD BE OUR FIRST WETTING RAIN
IN QUITE SOME TIME.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
BUT SLOWLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  81  58  80 /   0  20  10   0
ALW  63  81  61  80 /   0  20  10   0
PSC  57  84  58  83 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  57  79  54  82 /  10  10  10   0
HRI  57  83  58  83 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  55  78  57  81 /  10  20  10   0
RDM  51  75  45  78 /  10  20  20   0
LGD  54  80  51  76 /  10  20  20   0
GCD  50  78  49  78 /  10  20  20   0
DLS  62  80  59  84 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/81/88








000
FXUS66 KPDT 180212
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
712 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...PRECIPITATION IS STAYING MOSTLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM GETS READY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS WARM AND DRY AND WINDS ARE A LITTLE
STRONGER THIS EVENING THAN DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE ALSO HAVE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST
FROM CENTRAL OREGON NORTHEAST ACROSS THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AND THE
BLUE AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS SYSTEM SPLITS...AS IT
MOVES INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS NEXT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER
WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AT KDLS...KRDM
AND KBDN WITH POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT KRDM AND KBDN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT EXPECT POSSIBLY
GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE VFR DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 205 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS RETREATING TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION BUT PRECIPTATION THUS FAR HAS
REMAINED WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE TROUGH WILL BE UNDERGOING A SPLIT
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO THE POINT THAT IS WILL MAINLY BE SOME CLOUDS BUT VERY LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPROACH
THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT OF WHICH SOME COULD SPREAD ONTO THE EAST
SIDE. ALSO WATCHING FOR SOME CONVECTION TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD CLIP THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THE TROUGH
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE MARKED WITH MAINLY CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SO
CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF A
BUILDING RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER BASIN BY SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO DOMINANT RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...GFS IS FASTER IN PUSHING IT EAST AS THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME...GOING TO LEAN TOWARDS ECMWF AS IT IS
SLOWER AT MOVING THE RIDGE EAST AND SEEMS TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY.  AS A RESULT...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER..COULD SEE SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWA AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME...EXPECT ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD OVER...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY ON FINAL
TRACK OF SYSTEM.  BY TUESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THIS COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER FAVORED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.  BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AREA WIDE. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE
STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE TROUGH SO WENT WITH A MIX BUT STAYING ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.  IF WE ARE LUCKY...IT COULD BE OUR FIRST WETTING RAIN
IN QUITE SOME TIME.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
BUT SLOWLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  81  58  80 /   0  20  10   0
ALW  63  81  61  80 /   0  20  10   0
PSC  57  84  58  83 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  57  79  54  82 /  10  10  10   0
HRI  57  83  58  83 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  55  78  57  81 /  10  20  10   0
RDM  51  75  45  78 /  10  20  20   0
LGD  54  80  51  76 /  10  20  20   0
GCD  50  78  49  78 /  10  20  20   0
DLS  62  80  59  84 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/81/88








000
FXUS66 KPDT 180212
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
712 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...PRECIPITATION IS STAYING MOSTLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM GETS READY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS WARM AND DRY AND WINDS ARE A LITTLE
STRONGER THIS EVENING THAN DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE ALSO HAVE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST
FROM CENTRAL OREGON NORTHEAST ACROSS THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AND THE
BLUE AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS SYSTEM SPLITS...AS IT
MOVES INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS NEXT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER
WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AT KDLS...KRDM
AND KBDN WITH POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT KRDM AND KBDN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT EXPECT POSSIBLY
GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE VFR DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 205 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS RETREATING TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION BUT PRECIPTATION THUS FAR HAS
REMAINED WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE TROUGH WILL BE UNDERGOING A SPLIT
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO THE POINT THAT IS WILL MAINLY BE SOME CLOUDS BUT VERY LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPROACH
THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT OF WHICH SOME COULD SPREAD ONTO THE EAST
SIDE. ALSO WATCHING FOR SOME CONVECTION TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD CLIP THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THE TROUGH
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE MARKED WITH MAINLY CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SO
CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF A
BUILDING RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER BASIN BY SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO DOMINANT RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...GFS IS FASTER IN PUSHING IT EAST AS THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME...GOING TO LEAN TOWARDS ECMWF AS IT IS
SLOWER AT MOVING THE RIDGE EAST AND SEEMS TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY.  AS A RESULT...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER..COULD SEE SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWA AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME...EXPECT ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD OVER...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY ON FINAL
TRACK OF SYSTEM.  BY TUESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THIS COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER FAVORED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.  BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AREA WIDE. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE
STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE TROUGH SO WENT WITH A MIX BUT STAYING ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.  IF WE ARE LUCKY...IT COULD BE OUR FIRST WETTING RAIN
IN QUITE SOME TIME.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
BUT SLOWLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  81  58  80 /   0  20  10   0
ALW  63  81  61  80 /   0  20  10   0
PSC  57  84  58  83 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  57  79  54  82 /  10  10  10   0
HRI  57  83  58  83 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  55  78  57  81 /  10  20  10   0
RDM  51  75  45  78 /  10  20  20   0
LGD  54  80  51  76 /  10  20  20   0
GCD  50  78  49  78 /  10  20  20   0
DLS  62  80  59  84 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/81/88








000
FXUS66 KPQR 172208
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE
FREQUENT BOUTS OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD THAN INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. WHILE HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WORST OF THE SMOKE
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND
POINTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING
THE REGION IN DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST AREA OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IS ACTIVELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. WHILE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THIS REGION...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN OF RAIN OR LESS
HAS FALLEN SO FAR. THIS REGION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTINCT PV ANOMALY AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 90KT JET THAT WILL BRUSH OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EASTERN
LANE COUNTY.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL STRUGGLE TO BRING MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES TO PERHAPS A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE KEPT HIGHEST
NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS GREATER...AND MAINLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION JUST OFFSHORE AND A SUBTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL
CONCENTRATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COUPLED WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB...MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY
TO FALL ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST...COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES THURSDAY. WETTING RAINS STILL DO NOT APPEAR ALL
THAT PROMISING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHERE A DYING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY


&&


.AVIATION...INCREASING MID LEVELS CLOUDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING
COASTAL SITES. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT
FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...BUT IT IS NOT AS BAD AS
YESTERDAY. SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL
DRIFT N TO NE THROUGH THURSDAY...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
FROM CASCADES EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT. SCATTERED CIGS LIKELY FORMING IN THE
4000-5000 FT RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. /27


&&


.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE FRIDAY...AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND
LESS THAN 15 KT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN WAVE TRAINS AS NW SWELL WILL
MOSTLY DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE VARYING AND
SHIFTING FROM SW TO W BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS RUNNING 6
TO 8 FT...WITH HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE...WITH PERIODS AROUND 13
SECONDS.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT.


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 172208
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE
FREQUENT BOUTS OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD THAN INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. WHILE HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WORST OF THE SMOKE
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND
POINTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING
THE REGION IN DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST AREA OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IS ACTIVELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. WHILE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THIS REGION...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN OF RAIN OR LESS
HAS FALLEN SO FAR. THIS REGION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTINCT PV ANOMALY AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 90KT JET THAT WILL BRUSH OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EASTERN
LANE COUNTY.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL STRUGGLE TO BRING MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES TO PERHAPS A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE KEPT HIGHEST
NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS GREATER...AND MAINLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION JUST OFFSHORE AND A SUBTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL
CONCENTRATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COUPLED WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB...MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY
TO FALL ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST...COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES THURSDAY. WETTING RAINS STILL DO NOT APPEAR ALL
THAT PROMISING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHERE A DYING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY


&&


.AVIATION...INCREASING MID LEVELS CLOUDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING
COASTAL SITES. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT
FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...BUT IT IS NOT AS BAD AS
YESTERDAY. SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL
DRIFT N TO NE THROUGH THURSDAY...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
FROM CASCADES EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT. SCATTERED CIGS LIKELY FORMING IN THE
4000-5000 FT RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. /27


&&


.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE FRIDAY...AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND
LESS THAN 15 KT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN WAVE TRAINS AS NW SWELL WILL
MOSTLY DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE VARYING AND
SHIFTING FROM SW TO W BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS RUNNING 6
TO 8 FT...WITH HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE...WITH PERIODS AROUND 13
SECONDS.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT.


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 172208
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE
FREQUENT BOUTS OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD THAN INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. WHILE HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WORST OF THE SMOKE
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND
POINTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING
THE REGION IN DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST AREA OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IS ACTIVELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. WHILE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THIS REGION...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN OF RAIN OR LESS
HAS FALLEN SO FAR. THIS REGION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTINCT PV ANOMALY AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 90KT JET THAT WILL BRUSH OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EASTERN
LANE COUNTY.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL STRUGGLE TO BRING MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES TO PERHAPS A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE KEPT HIGHEST
NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS GREATER...AND MAINLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION JUST OFFSHORE AND A SUBTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL
CONCENTRATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COUPLED WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB...MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY
TO FALL ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST...COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES THURSDAY. WETTING RAINS STILL DO NOT APPEAR ALL
THAT PROMISING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHERE A DYING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY


&&


.AVIATION...INCREASING MID LEVELS CLOUDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING
COASTAL SITES. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT
FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...BUT IT IS NOT AS BAD AS
YESTERDAY. SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL
DRIFT N TO NE THROUGH THURSDAY...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
FROM CASCADES EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT. SCATTERED CIGS LIKELY FORMING IN THE
4000-5000 FT RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. /27


&&


.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE FRIDAY...AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND
LESS THAN 15 KT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN WAVE TRAINS AS NW SWELL WILL
MOSTLY DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE VARYING AND
SHIFTING FROM SW TO W BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS RUNNING 6
TO 8 FT...WITH HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE...WITH PERIODS AROUND 13
SECONDS.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT.


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 172208
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE
FREQUENT BOUTS OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD THAN INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. WHILE HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WORST OF THE SMOKE
FROM THE 36 PIT AND DECEPTION COMPLEX FIRES OVER THE CASCADES AND
POINTS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT SMOKIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90F
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST...PLACING
THE REGION IN DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST AREA OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IS ACTIVELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. WHILE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THIS REGION...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN OF RAIN OR LESS
HAS FALLEN SO FAR. THIS REGION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS BEING ENHANCED BY A DISTINCT PV ANOMALY AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 90KT JET THAT WILL BRUSH OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EASTERN
LANE COUNTY.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL STRUGGLE TO BRING MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES TO PERHAPS A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE KEPT HIGHEST
NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS GREATER...AND MAINLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION JUST OFFSHORE AND A SUBTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL
CONCENTRATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COUPLED WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB...MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY
TO FALL ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST...COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES THURSDAY. WETTING RAINS STILL DO NOT APPEAR ALL
THAT PROMISING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WHERE A DYING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD NORTHWARD UP THE COAST...BRINGING INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A MARINE SURGE ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MARINE-
SOURCED AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND DGEX ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STALLS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SOURCING FROM THE PARENT LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS RECENTLY HAVE TENDED TO GENERATE A LOT OF
MOISTURE FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BACK OFF AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. FOR THIS REASON...I AM HESITANT TO COMMIT TO THIS BEING
A PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL EVENT. -MCCOY


&&


.AVIATION...INCREASING MID LEVELS CLOUDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNDER WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING
COASTAL SITES. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMOKE FROM THE 36-PIT
FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EAST COLUMBIA GORGE...UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND MT HOOD...BUT IT IS NOT AS BAD AS
YESTERDAY. SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA WILL
DRIFT N TO NE THROUGH THURSDAY...AFFECTING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
FROM CASCADES EASTWARD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT. SCATTERED CIGS LIKELY FORMING IN THE
4000-5000 FT RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. /27


&&


.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE FRIDAY...AS WEAK LOW PRES WILL MAINTAIN S TO SE WIND
LESS THAN 15 KT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN WAVE TRAINS AS NW SWELL WILL
MOSTLY DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE VARYING AND
SHIFTING FROM SW TO W BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS RUNNING 6
TO 8 FT...WITH HIGHEST FURTHER OFFSHORE...WITH PERIODS AROUND 13
SECONDS.

HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI AND SAT...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES OVER THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF E TO NE WINDS TO THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KT ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT.


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.


&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 172204
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE
THE CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED, BUT MOUNTAIN WAVES ARE FORMING WHICH IS
AN INDICATION OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WINDS HAVE BEEN CRANKING UP
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND ARE STRONGEST OVER THE RIDGES AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES. ALSO WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW IN THE SHASTA VALLEY
AND AT LAST REPORT WEED WAS REPORTING A PEAK GUST OF 52 MPH. EAST OF
THE CASCADES KLAMATH FALLS REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 41 MPH. THE
MODELS OVERALL ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE WIND SPEEDS AND WILL
GENERALLY BE GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS.
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TOWARDS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 39N/132W IS
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. SO FAR, A COUPLE OF TICKS ON THE RAIN
GAGE HAS SHOWN UP IN CURRY COUNTY, BUT WE`LL SEE MORE AS RADAR
RETURNS SHOW A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS CURRY
AND WESTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY. EVEN THEN, WERE ONLY EXPECTING BETWEEN
0.15 AND 0.25 OF AN INCH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHTER AND MOST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. ALSO MODELS
ARE HINTING AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE WATERS AND
POSSIBLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND WITH A COOL POOL ALOFT MOVING
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING, THEREFORE FELT IT WAS BEST TO PUT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. ALSO WEAK INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FROM AROUND
CRATER LAKE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL BRING SOME GOOD NEWS. FIRST, IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY COMPARED
TODAY AND SECOND WE`LL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH SPLITTING, THIS WILL TEND TO PUT A CAP ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME, WERE EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.10-0.20 OF AN
INCH FOR THE CASCADES, UP TO 0.10 FOR THE COAST RANGE, 0.10 OR LESS
FOR MOST WESTSIDE LOCATIONS AND 0.05 OR LESS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY FROM THE CASCADES EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME INSTABILITY EXIST
IN EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY AND EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY.

THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPLIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. ANY SHOWERS WILL END THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OREGON COAST AND WE COULD SEE INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH MODERATE TO POOR RECOVERIES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
AND SOUTH COAST RANGE IN OREGON.

THE EC AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER BROAD
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING NEAR 140W AND THIS WILL KICK THE UPPER LOW IN
CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON, BUT IT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO IMPACT FOR US.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST MONDAY AND
THE GFS AND EC SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES
IN THE AFTERNOON TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN REMARKABLE GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTING NEXT WEDNESDAY. OF NOTE THE
PREVIOUS 2 GFS RUNS (6Z AND LAST NIGHTS 0Z) WERE SHOWING A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE EC WAS STILL SHOWING A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN. INTERESTING ENOUGH, THE RMOP SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY (34%
PROBABILITY) OF A STRONG RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE REGION IN THE
SAME TIME PERIOD, BUT THIS WAS BASED IN PART ON LAST NIGHTS (0Z)
RUN. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 0Z RUN WILL SHOW
TONIGHT. FOR NOW WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO INCREASE POPS ENOUGH FOR A
CHANCE MENTION, BUT IF THE EC AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THE
POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. IF WE TAKE THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AT FACE VALUE, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IN QUITE SOME TIME. AGAIN THIS
IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THE MODELS TREND
OVER TIME. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 17/18Z TAF CYCLE...
GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TURBULENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS. RAIN PUSHING ONTO
THE COAST AND INTO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IN CURRY COUNTY, LOCALLY IFR TO LIFR ALONG THE COAST
WHERE FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR AT TIMES. THIS RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND THEN MORESO, ON THURSDAY. PARTIAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY, EXCEPT NEAR TOTAL ACROSS THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. VALLEY CEILINGS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT IN CURRY AND
JOSEPHINE COUNTIES, WHERE MVFR IS EXPECTED. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR IN SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1215 PM PDT WED 17 SEP 2014...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO BEING DOMINATED
BY A MODERATE SWELL DURING THE WEEKEND. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$









000
FXUS66 KMFR 172204
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE
THE CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED, BUT MOUNTAIN WAVES ARE FORMING WHICH IS
AN INDICATION OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WINDS HAVE BEEN CRANKING UP
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND ARE STRONGEST OVER THE RIDGES AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES. ALSO WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW IN THE SHASTA VALLEY
AND AT LAST REPORT WEED WAS REPORTING A PEAK GUST OF 52 MPH. EAST OF
THE CASCADES KLAMATH FALLS REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 41 MPH. THE
MODELS OVERALL ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE WIND SPEEDS AND WILL
GENERALLY BE GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS.
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TOWARDS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 39N/132W IS
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. SO FAR, A COUPLE OF TICKS ON THE RAIN
GAGE HAS SHOWN UP IN CURRY COUNTY, BUT WE`LL SEE MORE AS RADAR
RETURNS SHOW A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS CURRY
AND WESTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY. EVEN THEN, WERE ONLY EXPECTING BETWEEN
0.15 AND 0.25 OF AN INCH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHTER AND MOST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. ALSO MODELS
ARE HINTING AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE WATERS AND
POSSIBLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND WITH A COOL POOL ALOFT MOVING
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING, THEREFORE FELT IT WAS BEST TO PUT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. ALSO WEAK INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FROM AROUND
CRATER LAKE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL BRING SOME GOOD NEWS. FIRST, IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY COMPARED
TODAY AND SECOND WE`LL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH SPLITTING, THIS WILL TEND TO PUT A CAP ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME, WERE EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.10-0.20 OF AN
INCH FOR THE CASCADES, UP TO 0.10 FOR THE COAST RANGE, 0.10 OR LESS
FOR MOST WESTSIDE LOCATIONS AND 0.05 OR LESS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY FROM THE CASCADES EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME INSTABILITY EXIST
IN EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY AND EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY.

THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPLIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. ANY SHOWERS WILL END THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OREGON COAST AND WE COULD SEE INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH MODERATE TO POOR RECOVERIES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
AND SOUTH COAST RANGE IN OREGON.

THE EC AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER BROAD
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING NEAR 140W AND THIS WILL KICK THE UPPER LOW IN
CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON, BUT IT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO IMPACT FOR US.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST MONDAY AND
THE GFS AND EC SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES
IN THE AFTERNOON TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN REMARKABLE GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTING NEXT WEDNESDAY. OF NOTE THE
PREVIOUS 2 GFS RUNS (6Z AND LAST NIGHTS 0Z) WERE SHOWING A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE EC WAS STILL SHOWING A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN. INTERESTING ENOUGH, THE RMOP SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY (34%
PROBABILITY) OF A STRONG RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE REGION IN THE
SAME TIME PERIOD, BUT THIS WAS BASED IN PART ON LAST NIGHTS (0Z)
RUN. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 0Z RUN WILL SHOW
TONIGHT. FOR NOW WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO INCREASE POPS ENOUGH FOR A
CHANCE MENTION, BUT IF THE EC AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THE
POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. IF WE TAKE THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AT FACE VALUE, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT OUR FIRST
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IN QUITE SOME TIME. AGAIN THIS
IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THE MODELS TREND
OVER TIME. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 17/18Z TAF CYCLE...
GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TURBULENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS. RAIN PUSHING ONTO
THE COAST AND INTO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IN CURRY COUNTY, LOCALLY IFR TO LIFR ALONG THE COAST
WHERE FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR AT TIMES. THIS RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND THEN MORESO, ON THURSDAY. PARTIAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY, EXCEPT NEAR TOTAL ACROSS THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. VALLEY CEILINGS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT IN CURRY AND
JOSEPHINE COUNTIES, WHERE MVFR IS EXPECTED. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR IN SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1215 PM PDT WED 17 SEP 2014...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED NORTH WINDS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO BEING DOMINATED
BY A MODERATE SWELL DURING THE WEEKEND. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$








000
FXUS66 KPDT 172105
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
205 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS RETREATING TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION BUT PRECIPTATION THUS FAR HAS
REMAINED WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE TROUGH WILL BE UNDERGOING A SPLIT
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO THE POINT THAT IS WILL MAINLY BE SOME CLOUDS BUT VERY LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPROACH
THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT OF WHICH SOME COULD SPREAD ONTO THE EAST
SIDE. ALSO WATCHING FOR SOME CONVECTION TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD CLIP THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THE TROUGH
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE MARKED WITH MAINLY CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SO
CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF A
BUILDING RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER BASIN BY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO DOMINANT RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...GFS IS FASTER IN PUSHING IT EAST AS THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME...GOING TO LEAN TOWARDS ECMWF AS IT IS
SLOWER AT MOVING THE RIDGE EAST AND SEEMS TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY.  AS A RESULT...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER..COULD SEE SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWA AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME...EXPECT ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD OVER...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY ON FINAL
TRACK OF SYSTEM.  BY TUESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THIS COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER FAVORED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.  BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AREA WIDE. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE
STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE TROUGH SO WENT WITH A MIX BUT STAYING ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.  IF WE ARE LUCKY...IT COULD BE OUR FIRST WETTING RAIN
IN QUITE SOME TIME.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
BUT SLOWLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  EARLE


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION AS A
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST MOVES ASHORE AND WEAKENS.  SOME SPRINKLES MAY
OCCUR AFTER 18/12Z...OTHERWISE CONTINUED DRY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AFTER 18/19Z.  EARLE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  81  58  80 /   0  20  10   0
ALW  63  81  61  80 /   0  20  10   0
PSC  57  84  58  83 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  57  79  54  82 /  10  10  10   0
HRI  57  83  58  83 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  55  78  57  81 /  10  20  10   0
RDM  51  75  45  78 /  10  20  20   0
LGD  54  80  51  76 /  10  20  20   0
GCD  50  78  49  78 /  10  20  20   0
DLS  62  80  59  84 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/81/81








000
FXUS66 KPDT 172105
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
205 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS RETREATING TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION BUT PRECIPTATION THUS FAR HAS
REMAINED WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE TROUGH WILL BE UNDERGOING A SPLIT
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO THE POINT THAT IS WILL MAINLY BE SOME CLOUDS BUT VERY LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPROACH
THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT OF WHICH SOME COULD SPREAD ONTO THE EAST
SIDE. ALSO WATCHING FOR SOME CONVECTION TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD CLIP THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THE TROUGH
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE MARKED WITH MAINLY CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SO
CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF A
BUILDING RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER BASIN BY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO DOMINANT RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...GFS IS FASTER IN PUSHING IT EAST AS THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME...GOING TO LEAN TOWARDS ECMWF AS IT IS
SLOWER AT MOVING THE RIDGE EAST AND SEEMS TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY.  AS A RESULT...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER..COULD SEE SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWA AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME...EXPECT ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD OVER...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY ON FINAL
TRACK OF SYSTEM.  BY TUESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THIS COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER FAVORED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.  BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AREA WIDE. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE
STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE TROUGH SO WENT WITH A MIX BUT STAYING ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.  IF WE ARE LUCKY...IT COULD BE OUR FIRST WETTING RAIN
IN QUITE SOME TIME.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
BUT SLOWLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  EARLE


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION AS A
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST MOVES ASHORE AND WEAKENS.  SOME SPRINKLES MAY
OCCUR AFTER 18/12Z...OTHERWISE CONTINUED DRY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AFTER 18/19Z.  EARLE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  81  58  80 /   0  20  10   0
ALW  63  81  61  80 /   0  20  10   0
PSC  57  84  58  83 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  57  79  54  82 /  10  10  10   0
HRI  57  83  58  83 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  55  78  57  81 /  10  20  10   0
RDM  51  75  45  78 /  10  20  20   0
LGD  54  80  51  76 /  10  20  20   0
GCD  50  78  49  78 /  10  20  20   0
DLS  62  80  59  84 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/81/81








000
FXUS66 KPDT 172105
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
205 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS RETREATING TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION BUT PRECIPTATION THUS FAR HAS
REMAINED WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE TROUGH WILL BE UNDERGOING A SPLIT
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO THE POINT THAT IS WILL MAINLY BE SOME CLOUDS BUT VERY LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPROACH
THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT OF WHICH SOME COULD SPREAD ONTO THE EAST
SIDE. ALSO WATCHING FOR SOME CONVECTION TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD CLIP THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THE TROUGH
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE MARKED WITH MAINLY CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SO
CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF A
BUILDING RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER BASIN BY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO DOMINANT RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...GFS IS FASTER IN PUSHING IT EAST AS THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME...GOING TO LEAN TOWARDS ECMWF AS IT IS
SLOWER AT MOVING THE RIDGE EAST AND SEEMS TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY.  AS A RESULT...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER..COULD SEE SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWA AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME...EXPECT ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD OVER...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY ON FINAL
TRACK OF SYSTEM.  BY TUESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THIS COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER FAVORED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.  BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AREA WIDE. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE
STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE TROUGH SO WENT WITH A MIX BUT STAYING ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.  IF WE ARE LUCKY...IT COULD BE OUR FIRST WETTING RAIN
IN QUITE SOME TIME.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
BUT SLOWLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  EARLE


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION AS A
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST MOVES ASHORE AND WEAKENS.  SOME SPRINKLES MAY
OCCUR AFTER 18/12Z...OTHERWISE CONTINUED DRY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AFTER 18/19Z.  EARLE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  81  58  80 /   0  20  10   0
ALW  63  81  61  80 /   0  20  10   0
PSC  57  84  58  83 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  57  79  54  82 /  10  10  10   0
HRI  57  83  58  83 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  55  78  57  81 /  10  20  10   0
RDM  51  75  45  78 /  10  20  20   0
LGD  54  80  51  76 /  10  20  20   0
GCD  50  78  49  78 /  10  20  20   0
DLS  62  80  59  84 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/81/81








000
FXUS66 KPDT 172105
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
205 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS RETREATING TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION BUT PRECIPTATION THUS FAR HAS
REMAINED WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE TROUGH WILL BE UNDERGOING A SPLIT
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO THE POINT THAT IS WILL MAINLY BE SOME CLOUDS BUT VERY LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPROACH
THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT OF WHICH SOME COULD SPREAD ONTO THE EAST
SIDE. ALSO WATCHING FOR SOME CONVECTION TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD CLIP THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THE TROUGH
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE MARKED WITH MAINLY CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SO
CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF A
BUILDING RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER BASIN BY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO DOMINANT RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...GFS IS FASTER IN PUSHING IT EAST AS THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME...GOING TO LEAN TOWARDS ECMWF AS IT IS
SLOWER AT MOVING THE RIDGE EAST AND SEEMS TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY.  AS A RESULT...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER..COULD SEE SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWA AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME...EXPECT ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD OVER...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY ON FINAL
TRACK OF SYSTEM.  BY TUESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THIS COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER FAVORED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.  BY WEDNESDAY...A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AREA WIDE. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE
STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE TROUGH SO WENT WITH A MIX BUT STAYING ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.  IF WE ARE LUCKY...IT COULD BE OUR FIRST WETTING RAIN
IN QUITE SOME TIME.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
BUT SLOWLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  EARLE


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION AS A
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST MOVES ASHORE AND WEAKENS.  SOME SPRINKLES MAY
OCCUR AFTER 18/12Z...OTHERWISE CONTINUED DRY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AFTER 18/19Z.  EARLE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  81  58  80 /   0  20  10   0
ALW  63  81  61  80 /   0  20  10   0
PSC  57  84  58  83 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  57  79  54  82 /  10  10  10   0
HRI  57  83  58  83 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  55  78  57  81 /  10  20  10   0
RDM  51  75  45  78 /  10  20  20   0
LGD  54  80  51  76 /  10  20  20   0
GCD  50  78  49  78 /  10  20  20   0
DLS  62  80  59  84 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/81/81








000
FXUS65 KBOI 172040
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
240 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS DESPITE
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM UPPER TROUGH OFF THE OREGON COAST. A
LOW HAS FORMED IN THE TROUGH NEAR 39/130 WHICH WILL HELP SPLIT THE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY.  THE LOW ITSELF WILL GO DOWN THE
CALIF COAST THU AND FRI WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
SHEARS EAST INTO MONTANA...LEAVING OUR CWA IN THE COL BETWEEN THEM.
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
OUR OREGON ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND IN IDAHO ZONES THURSDAY.  MAIN
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.  HOWEVER A BETTER CHANCE WILL EXIST
IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND SERN OWYHEE COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE ENTRAINED FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM ODILE IN ARIZONA.  MODELS HAVE SURPRISINGLY LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON OUR NRN BORDER THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
NEARBY.  DRYING FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.  MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY WILL COOL 8-10 DEGREES FROM TODAY WITH A FEW DEGREES
FURTHER COOLING OF BOTH MIN AND MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TO BE DRY AND MILD. HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 5 ABOVE
NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OR SUNNY. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2000 MILES WSW OF BOISE...THAT
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE PACNW AND EVENTUALLY
SPREADS TO INTERIOR SW CANADA AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS LEAVES
OUR AREA OPEN TO INFLUENCE /MOISTURE INSTABILITY AND LIFT/ FROM THE
UPPER LOW MEANDERING FROM OUR W TO S IN THE SHORT TERM. PREFER A
GEFS/EC/GFS BLEND. SO THE LOW NOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NNE TO THE NV-
ID BORDER SUNDAY MORNING AND ACROSS SW- TO S-CENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY RESPECTIVELY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM THE CUTOFF LOW. MODELS AGREE THAT A TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING AROUND A HALF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF SE OREGON/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/
BOISE MOUNTAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT...BRINGING US TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z BUT STILL MOSTLY
VFR. VFR HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXCEPT IN THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
IDAHO MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE BKN MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY OVER IDAHO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH AREAS OF MTN PEAKS OBSCURED WITH
OREGON AND IDAHO VALLEYS GETTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS STRONGEST OVER OREGON UNTIL SUNSET FROM THE SW 20-30
KTS THEN SW TO W 15-25 KTS. IDAHO SURFACE WINDS SOUTH TO WEST 10-15
KTS SHIFTING TO W AND NW 10-20 KTS THURSDAY. WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING FROM
SW TO WEST 25-35 KTS.

$$

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....VM/AB
AVIATION.....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 172040
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
240 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS DESPITE
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM UPPER TROUGH OFF THE OREGON COAST. A
LOW HAS FORMED IN THE TROUGH NEAR 39/130 WHICH WILL HELP SPLIT THE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY.  THE LOW ITSELF WILL GO DOWN THE
CALIF COAST THU AND FRI WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
SHEARS EAST INTO MONTANA...LEAVING OUR CWA IN THE COL BETWEEN THEM.
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
OUR OREGON ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND IN IDAHO ZONES THURSDAY.  MAIN
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.  HOWEVER A BETTER CHANCE WILL EXIST
IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND SERN OWYHEE COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE ENTRAINED FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM ODILE IN ARIZONA.  MODELS HAVE SURPRISINGLY LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON OUR NRN BORDER THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
NEARBY.  DRYING FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.  MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY WILL COOL 8-10 DEGREES FROM TODAY WITH A FEW DEGREES
FURTHER COOLING OF BOTH MIN AND MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TO BE DRY AND MILD. HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 5 ABOVE
NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OR SUNNY. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2000 MILES WSW OF BOISE...THAT
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE PACNW AND EVENTUALLY
SPREADS TO INTERIOR SW CANADA AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS LEAVES
OUR AREA OPEN TO INFLUENCE /MOISTURE INSTABILITY AND LIFT/ FROM THE
UPPER LOW MEANDERING FROM OUR W TO S IN THE SHORT TERM. PREFER A
GEFS/EC/GFS BLEND. SO THE LOW NOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NNE TO THE NV-
ID BORDER SUNDAY MORNING AND ACROSS SW- TO S-CENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY RESPECTIVELY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM THE CUTOFF LOW. MODELS AGREE THAT A TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING AROUND A HALF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF SE OREGON/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/
BOISE MOUNTAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT...BRINGING US TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z BUT STILL MOSTLY
VFR. VFR HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXCEPT IN THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
IDAHO MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE BKN MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY OVER IDAHO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH AREAS OF MTN PEAKS OBSCURED WITH
OREGON AND IDAHO VALLEYS GETTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS STRONGEST OVER OREGON UNTIL SUNSET FROM THE SW 20-30
KTS THEN SW TO W 15-25 KTS. IDAHO SURFACE WINDS SOUTH TO WEST 10-15
KTS SHIFTING TO W AND NW 10-20 KTS THURSDAY. WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING FROM
SW TO WEST 25-35 KTS.

$$

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....VM/AB
AVIATION.....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 172040
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
240 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS DESPITE
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM UPPER TROUGH OFF THE OREGON COAST. A
LOW HAS FORMED IN THE TROUGH NEAR 39/130 WHICH WILL HELP SPLIT THE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY.  THE LOW ITSELF WILL GO DOWN THE
CALIF COAST THU AND FRI WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
SHEARS EAST INTO MONTANA...LEAVING OUR CWA IN THE COL BETWEEN THEM.
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
OUR OREGON ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND IN IDAHO ZONES THURSDAY.  MAIN
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.  HOWEVER A BETTER CHANCE WILL EXIST
IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND SERN OWYHEE COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE ENTRAINED FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM ODILE IN ARIZONA.  MODELS HAVE SURPRISINGLY LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON OUR NRN BORDER THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
NEARBY.  DRYING FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.  MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY WILL COOL 8-10 DEGREES FROM TODAY WITH A FEW DEGREES
FURTHER COOLING OF BOTH MIN AND MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TO BE DRY AND MILD. HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 5 ABOVE
NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OR SUNNY. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2000 MILES WSW OF BOISE...THAT
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE PACNW AND EVENTUALLY
SPREADS TO INTERIOR SW CANADA AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS LEAVES
OUR AREA OPEN TO INFLUENCE /MOISTURE INSTABILITY AND LIFT/ FROM THE
UPPER LOW MEANDERING FROM OUR W TO S IN THE SHORT TERM. PREFER A
GEFS/EC/GFS BLEND. SO THE LOW NOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NNE TO THE NV-
ID BORDER SUNDAY MORNING AND ACROSS SW- TO S-CENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY RESPECTIVELY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM THE CUTOFF LOW. MODELS AGREE THAT A TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING AROUND A HALF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF SE OREGON/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/
BOISE MOUNTAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT...BRINGING US TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z BUT STILL MOSTLY
VFR. VFR HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXCEPT IN THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
IDAHO MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE BKN MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY OVER IDAHO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH AREAS OF MTN PEAKS OBSCURED WITH
OREGON AND IDAHO VALLEYS GETTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS STRONGEST OVER OREGON UNTIL SUNSET FROM THE SW 20-30
KTS THEN SW TO W 15-25 KTS. IDAHO SURFACE WINDS SOUTH TO WEST 10-15
KTS SHIFTING TO W AND NW 10-20 KTS THURSDAY. WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING FROM
SW TO WEST 25-35 KTS.

$$

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....VM/AB
AVIATION.....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 172040
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
240 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS DESPITE
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM UPPER TROUGH OFF THE OREGON COAST. A
LOW HAS FORMED IN THE TROUGH NEAR 39/130 WHICH WILL HELP SPLIT THE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY.  THE LOW ITSELF WILL GO DOWN THE
CALIF COAST THU AND FRI WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
SHEARS EAST INTO MONTANA...LEAVING OUR CWA IN THE COL BETWEEN THEM.
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
OUR OREGON ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND IN IDAHO ZONES THURSDAY.  MAIN
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.  HOWEVER A BETTER CHANCE WILL EXIST
IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND SERN OWYHEE COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE ENTRAINED FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM ODILE IN ARIZONA.  MODELS HAVE SURPRISINGLY LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON OUR NRN BORDER THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
NEARBY.  DRYING FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.  MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY WILL COOL 8-10 DEGREES FROM TODAY WITH A FEW DEGREES
FURTHER COOLING OF BOTH MIN AND MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TO BE DRY AND MILD. HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 5 ABOVE
NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OR SUNNY. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2000 MILES WSW OF BOISE...THAT
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE PACNW AND EVENTUALLY
SPREADS TO INTERIOR SW CANADA AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS LEAVES
OUR AREA OPEN TO INFLUENCE /MOISTURE INSTABILITY AND LIFT/ FROM THE
UPPER LOW MEANDERING FROM OUR W TO S IN THE SHORT TERM. PREFER A
GEFS/EC/GFS BLEND. SO THE LOW NOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NNE TO THE NV-
ID BORDER SUNDAY MORNING AND ACROSS SW- TO S-CENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY RESPECTIVELY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM THE CUTOFF LOW. MODELS AGREE THAT A TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING AROUND A HALF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF SE OREGON/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/
BOISE MOUNTAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT...BRINGING US TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z BUT STILL MOSTLY
VFR. VFR HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXCEPT IN THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
IDAHO MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE BKN MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY OVER IDAHO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH AREAS OF MTN PEAKS OBSCURED WITH
OREGON AND IDAHO VALLEYS GETTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS STRONGEST OVER OREGON UNTIL SUNSET FROM THE SW 20-30
KTS THEN SW TO W 15-25 KTS. IDAHO SURFACE WINDS SOUTH TO WEST 10-15
KTS SHIFTING TO W AND NW 10-20 KTS THURSDAY. WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING FROM
SW TO WEST 25-35 KTS.

$$

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....VM/AB
AVIATION.....VM



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