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000
FXUS66 KPDT 041509
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
809 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE AND MOIST AS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPS UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH. FOR
TODAY THIS WILL MEAN THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WEAK TO MODERATE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS (CAPE, LI, PWAT, ETC).
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THERE
IS SOME INDICATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL
MAKE A BETTER ASSESSMENT LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON. THURSDAY
LOOKS EVEN BETTER FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS. SPC HAS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF OREGON AND THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF WASHINGTON IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS. 88

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN UP WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH TODAY.  AS A
RESULT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT OF THESE STORMS.
GFS/NAM AVERAGE CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG...WITH ALL OTHER
AREAS RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 30-
40 KTS...WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES 100-350 M2/S2 COULD SUGGEST SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  RIGHT NOW SPC ONLY HAS A GENERAL THUNDER
THREAT FOR OUR AREA TODAY...BUT HAVE PUT GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND AN INCH
ACROSS THE AREA...SUGGESTING POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WITH THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS INLAND OVERNIGHT SOME FORCING ALONG
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREAS. SO WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
THROUGH  THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THURSDAY COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY FOR THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER
WALLOWA...UNION...COLUMBIA...AND EASTERN UMATILLA COUNTY.  CAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM 1000-2500 J/KG WITH 45-50 KTS OF SHEAR AND SRH
VALUES >200 M2/S2.  IN ADDITION THE POSITION OF THE LOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON WOULD FAVOR A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...AS WELL AS 500 MB
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA...AIDING IN RAPID AIR ASCENT.  HAVE ADDED
SPECIAL WORDING TO THE MARGINAL THREAT AREA FOR
WIND/HAIL/RAIN/LIGHTNING.  AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD JUST BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS...THEN TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THURSDAYS THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.  WEBER

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO THE PLAINS
STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
FOR THE PACIFIC NW BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
FRIDAY MOISTURE CIRCULATING ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH GUSTY
NELY WINDS. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND BE
CONFINED TO JUST THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL BE WINDY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND
ADVISORIES IN GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY A DRY NWLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY THEN
70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES MOSTLY
AFTER 21Z. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA WILL BE FROM
21Z-03Z. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 7-12K FEET AGL. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY 5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON BUT A LITTLE STRONGER AND GUSTY AT
KDLS. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  79  50  73  50 /  30  60  50  30
ALW  81  54  74  52 /  30  50  50  40
PSC  83  54  78  54 /  20  60  40  30
YKM  82  51  78  50 /  30  60  30  20
HRI  80  51  76  51 /  30  50  40  30
ELN  79  48  74  47 /  40  60  30  20
RDM  73  42  67  40 /  60  70  60  30
LGD  80  45  71  45 /  30  50  60  60
GCD  78  47  71  46 /  40  50  70  70
DLS  79  51  76  50 /  40  60  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78



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000
FXUS66 KMFR 041027
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
327 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE MAY STILL BE LOCATED OFF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BUT ITS REACH WILL BE FELT INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY UNSTABLE AND A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN DEL NORTE COUNTY. SHORT TERM MODEL
BRINGS A FEW STRIKES INTO THE KALMIOPSIS BY 0600 WITH
THUNDERSTORMSPOSSIBLE INTO THE ONION MOUNTAIN AREA. LIGHTNING
FREQUENCY SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA WILL
BE FROM THE WEST SLOPE OF THE CASCADES EASTWARD. A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTH INTO EASTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND MODOC COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSING INTO KLAMATH
AND LAKE COUNTY TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY. WE COULD SEE QUITE AN
ACTIVE DAY TODAY. SATELLITE READING OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS
AROUND AN INCH FROM WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH JOSEPHINE
COUNTY AND THE TREND IS FOR MOISTURE TO EXPAND EAST. AS A RESULT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IN THE ORDER OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER.

ON THURSDAY THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO COME ASHORE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS NOT VERY HIGH
DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE CLOSED LOW IN GENERAL. HOWEVER BOTH THE
NAM12 AND THE GFS20 ROTATE TWO MODERATELY STRONG SHORT WAVE
COUNTERCLOCKWISE FROM EAST TO WEST INTO OUR EAST SIDE ZONES. WITH
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING UNSTABLE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY STORMS
THAT MOVE INTO THE CASCADES COULD HOLD TOGETHER AND DRIFT INTO
JACKSON COUNTY. WHILE THIS IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE..THE THREAT IS
THERE AND WE HAVE EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MOST
OF JACKSON COUNTY ON THURSDAY EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS PULLS THIS LOW FURTHER SOUTH. AT FIRST THIS
WOULD SEEM TO PULL INSTABILITY AREA SOUTH BUT SINCE CONFIDENCE ON
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS NOT VERY HIGH..WE HAVE KEPT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
COAST AND MOST OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND NW JOSEPHINE COUNTY WHERE
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE LESS UNSTABLE FOR ONLY SHOWER COVERAGE.

SOUTHWEST OREGON AND PART OF THE KLAMATH BASIN SHOULD BE DRY ON
SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WRAPPED AROUND MOISTURE
COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN EASTERN
SISKIYOU..MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES. BY SUNDAY THE ONLY THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TO THE RIGHT OF THE LINE FROM MOUNT SHASTA
TO LAKEVIEW. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. INLAND...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS AND
LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIKELY IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR INLAND
AREAS, WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WED 4 MAY 2016...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HEAVIEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.

MODIFICATIONS TO THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES THIS MORNING WERE
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A LARGER AREAS OF HAZARDOUS SEAS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/JRS



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 041006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PDT WED MAY  4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED PACIFIC FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE PAC NW COAST...
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. TODAY SHOULD
BE A LOT LIKE TUESDAY...THOUGH LIKELY A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS ONSHORE
FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK/SHALLOW INSTABILITY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS AND IN THE CASCADES. THERE MAY BARELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO SW CANADA AND WASHINGTON LATER
THIS WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH/PACIFIC
FRONTAL ZONE STALLED JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS REORGANIZING INTO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
BRING IN A MOIST AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1
INCH AND LOCALLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

AS A RESULT OF THE NOW MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT...SHOWERS HAVE
BROUGHT BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUE EVENING. BRISK
SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP THE DOWNPOURS BRIEF...
WHICH ALLEVIATES MOST SMALL STREAM FLOODING ISSUES. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING. A COUPLE SELECT
LOCATIONS MAY END UP WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY THURSDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES WHERE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST. DUE TO THIS INSTABILITY THERE STILL MAY BE
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE OREGON CASCADE CREST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO SHALLOW
FOR THUNDER AND IT APPEARS IT WAS A GOOD CALL FOR PREVIOUS SHIFTS TO
LIMIT THUNDER TO THE CREST. WITH A STRENGTHENING MARINE LAYER IT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO GET DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE RELATIVELY COOL UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYING FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS ALSO WEAKENING...AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY IN THE NE PAC
GOES TOWARD DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DECREASE A BIT THURSDAY...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE CONFINED
TO THE CASCADES. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN CANADA...CREATING A WEAK REX BLOCK TYPE OF A
PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING DRIER...SUNNIER...AND WARMER
WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND...WITH THE WARMING/DRYING TREND POSSIBLY
STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. MAV MOS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY BRINGS MANY OF
OUR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY... BUT
FOR NOW OUR FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH MID TO UPPER
70S.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS......(FRI NIGHT
THROUGH TUE)...OUR TREND OF CLOUDS/DAMP WEEKDAYS AND SUNNY/MILD
WEEKENDS CONTINUES. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP A MORE JUNE
LIKE PATTERN...WITH LATE NIGHT/AM CLOUDS THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON MON...BUT NOT MUCH IN WAY
OF ANY RAIN THREAT. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW A
BIT. SO MON WILL BE BIT COOLER...WITH MORE IN WAY OF MORNING CLOUDS
THEN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.   ROCKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COASTAL AREAS COVER A WIDE RANGE
OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES...FROM IFR TO VFR. INLAND AREAS ARE MAINLY
VFR AT 10Z...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT
INCREASING MVFR CIGS INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT A RETURN
TO VFR BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY IFR
TO MVFR...BUT IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER
THE CASCADES 20Z THROUGH 06Z THU.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR AS OF 09Z...BUT STARTING TO SEE AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS 015-025 IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z...THEN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. INCREASING THREAT OF
-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON.  WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
12Z THU. NW TO N WIND PATTERN TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE A BIT
TODAY...WITH GUSTS VERY CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVER SRN WATERS.
MODELS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS TO EASE JUST A BIT THU AFTERNOON...BUT
PICK UP AGAIN FRI.

TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS ARE AROUND 6 TO 7 FT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL HOVER IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
PERSISTENT NW TO N WIND WILL RESULT IN A WIND-WAVE DOMINATED SEA
STATE...ULTIMATELY BECOMING FRESH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO STEEP...CHOPPY CONDITIONS.
WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 041006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PDT WED MAY  4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED PACIFIC FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE PAC NW COAST...
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. TODAY SHOULD
BE A LOT LIKE TUESDAY...THOUGH LIKELY A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS ONSHORE
FLOW INCREASES AND THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK/SHALLOW INSTABILITY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS AND IN THE CASCADES. THERE MAY BARELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE CASCADE CREST THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO SW CANADA AND WASHINGTON LATER
THIS WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH/PACIFIC
FRONTAL ZONE STALLED JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS REORGANIZING INTO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
BRING IN A MOIST AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1
INCH AND LOCALLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

AS A RESULT OF THE NOW MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT...SHOWERS HAVE
BROUGHT BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUE EVENING. BRISK
SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP THE DOWNPOURS BRIEF...
WHICH ALLEVIATES MOST SMALL STREAM FLOODING ISSUES. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING. A COUPLE SELECT
LOCATIONS MAY END UP WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY THURSDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES WHERE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST. DUE TO THIS INSTABILITY THERE STILL MAY BE
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE OREGON CASCADE CREST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO SHALLOW
FOR THUNDER AND IT APPEARS IT WAS A GOOD CALL FOR PREVIOUS SHIFTS TO
LIMIT THUNDER TO THE CREST. WITH A STRENGTHENING MARINE LAYER IT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO GET DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

THE RELATIVELY COOL UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYING FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS ALSO WEAKENING...AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY IN THE NE PAC
GOES TOWARD DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DECREASE A BIT THURSDAY...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE CONFINED
TO THE CASCADES. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN CANADA...CREATING A WEAK REX BLOCK TYPE OF A
PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING DRIER...SUNNIER...AND WARMER
WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND...WITH THE WARMING/DRYING TREND POSSIBLY
STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. MAV MOS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY BRINGS MANY OF
OUR INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY... BUT
FOR NOW OUR FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH MID TO UPPER
70S.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS......(FRI NIGHT
THROUGH TUE)...OUR TREND OF CLOUDS/DAMP WEEKDAYS AND SUNNY/MILD
WEEKENDS CONTINUES. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP A MORE JUNE
LIKE PATTERN...WITH LATE NIGHT/AM CLOUDS THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON MON...BUT NOT MUCH IN WAY
OF ANY RAIN THREAT. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW A
BIT. SO MON WILL BE BIT COOLER...WITH MORE IN WAY OF MORNING CLOUDS
THEN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.   ROCKEY.

&&

.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COASTAL AREAS COVER A WIDE RANGE
OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES...FROM IFR TO VFR. INLAND AREAS ARE MAINLY
VFR AT 10Z...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT
INCREASING MVFR CIGS INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT A RETURN
TO VFR BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY IFR
TO MVFR...BUT IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER
THE CASCADES 20Z THROUGH 06Z THU.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR AS OF 09Z...BUT STARTING TO SEE AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS 015-025 IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z...THEN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. INCREASING THREAT OF
-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON.  WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
12Z THU. NW TO N WIND PATTERN TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE A BIT
TODAY...WITH GUSTS VERY CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVER SRN WATERS.
MODELS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS TO EASE JUST A BIT THU AFTERNOON...BUT
PICK UP AGAIN FRI.

TOTAL WAVE HEIGHTS ARE AROUND 6 TO 7 FT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL HOVER IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
PERSISTENT NW TO N WIND WILL RESULT IN A WIND-WAVE DOMINATED SEA
STATE...ULTIMATELY BECOMING FRESH SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO STEEP...CHOPPY CONDITIONS.
WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 040946
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
246 AM PDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN UP WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH TODAY.  AS A
RESULT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT OF THESE STORMS.
GFS/NAM AVERAGE CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG...WITH ALL OTHER
AREAS RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 30-
40 KTS...WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES 100-350 M2/S2 COULD SUGGEST SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  RIGHT NOW SPC ONLY HAS A GENERAL THUNDER
THREAT FOR OUR AREA TODAY...BUT HAVE PUT GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND AN INCH
ACROSS THE AREA...SUGGESTING POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WITH THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS INLAND OVERNIGHT SOME FORCING ALONG
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREAS. SO WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
THROUGH  THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THURSDAY COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY FOR THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER
WALLOWA...UNION...COLUMBIA...AND EASTERN UMATILLA COUNTY.  CAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM 1000-2500 J/KG WITH 45-50 KTS OF SHEAR AND SRH
VALUES >200 M2/S2.  IN ADDITION THE POSITION OF THE LOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON WOULD FAVOR A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...AS WELL AS 500 MB
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA...AIDING IN RAPID AIR ASCENT.  HAVE ADDED
SPECIAL WORDING TO THE MARGINAL THREAT AREA FOR
WIND/HAIL/RAIN/LIGHTNING.  AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD JUST BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS...THEN TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THURSDAYS THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.  WEBER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO THE PLAINS
STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
FOR THE PACIFIC NW BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
FRIDAY MOISTURE CIRCULATING ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH GUSTY
NELY WINDS. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND BE
CONFINED TO JUST THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL BE WINDY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND
ADVISORIES IN GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY. FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY A DRY NWLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY THEN
70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES MOSTLY
AFTER 21Z. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA WILL BE FROM
21Z-03Z. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 7-12K FEET AGL. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY 5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON BUT A LITTLE STRONGER AND GUSTY AT
KDLS. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  79  50  73  50 /  30  60  50  30
ALW  81  54  74  52 /  30  50  50  40
PSC  83  54  78  54 /  20  60  40  30
YKM  82  51  78  50 /  30  60  30  20
HRI  80  51  76  51 /  30  50  40  30
ELN  79  48  74  47 /  40  60  30  20
RDM  73  42  67  40 /  60  70  60  30
LGD  80  45  71  45 /  30  50  60  60
GCD  78  47  71  46 /  40  50  70  70
DLS  79  51  76  50 /  40  60  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/78/78



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 040921
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
321 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST HAS BEGUN TO SPLIT...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA TODAY...BETWEEN THE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
MID 80S. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SE OREGON THIS MORNING.
AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SE OREGON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN SW IDAHO /EXCEPT REMAINING DRY EAST OF BOISE/. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH/UPPER CLOSED
LOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY CLOSER ON THURSDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON AND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. STILL LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE TREASURE/WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEYS...SOUTH TO THE ID/NV BORDER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH /INCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/ WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG /GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL/. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM IN SW IDAHO BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER IN SE OREGON ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A VERY LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
CIRCULATION WILL MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE LOW THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN US AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE A BIT RAIN COOLED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO IDAHO IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY FROM AN EAST OR SOUTH EASTERLY
DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT MSL...SOUTHERLY 20 TO 25
KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION.....JB




000
FXUS66 KPDT 040520
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST TO NUDGE
INLAND. THE TROUGH HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LEADING TO
SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE
FROM HERMISTON WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY SO JUST GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS WITH CIGS 080-120 AGL. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORM OR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AFTER 20Z TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
WARM SUNNY WEATHER...EASTERN WA/OR WILL SEE MORE ACTIVITY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THE ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND UNDER A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.  MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS WELL.  CURRENTLY...SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADES ALONG WITH A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SNOQUALMIE PASS.  BELIEVE ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED
WEST OF GOLDENDALE...CONDON AND PAULINA.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF
THE CASCADES.  WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES INCREASING TO 300-500 J/KG
AND LI`S LOWERING TO -3C TO -5C...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE GREATER.  HOWEVER...THE HORSEFLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER THAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.

A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY WILL CIRCULATE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN OR/WA.  THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
WEEK WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NE OREGON
WHERE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE IS 35-45 KNOTS AND CAPES WILL APPROACH
1200 J/KG (NOTE THE 12Z GFS IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH THE AMOUNT OF FORCING).  CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE
APPEARS ON TRACK.  PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  WISTER

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST FROM CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A FEW WRAPAROUND SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FROM GRANT TO
WALLOWA COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WASHINGTON.
HOWEVER...EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW IN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA MAY
KEEP SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA WHILE DRIER
CONDITIONS SPREAD INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE
WINDY AT TIMES. FRIDAY EVENING GUSTY N-NELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE IN WASHINGTON AND THE LOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A MARINE PUSH THROUGH WILL
THE CASCADE GAPS WILL BRING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN THEN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE MARINE
PUSH INTO THE 70S.  COONFIELD



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  79  51  72 /  20  20  60  50
ALW  59  81  54  73 /  10  10  50  50
PSC  56  83  57  78 /  20  10  50  50
YKM  53  80  53  78 /  30  30  50  30
HRI  54  81  53  76 /  20  10  50  50
ELN  51  77  49  73 /  30  30  50  40
RDM  44  71  41  68 /  50  70  70  50
LGD  44  80  48  68 /  10  20  50  50
GCD  49  79  47  68 /  20  50  60  70
DLS  57  77  51  75 /  40  40  50  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91




000
FXUS66 KMFR 040413
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DECREASING OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND EXPECT MAINLY JUST SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST WEDNESDAY THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING INLAND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MOST THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES EASTWARD AND OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ON FRIDAY, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY
INCREASE WITH THE MODELS SHOWING ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND CAPE
OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS A JET ALOFT. THE 00Z GFS AND NAM ALSO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER
RUNS. SO MAY NEED TO EXPAND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
CHANCES ON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/00Z TAF CYCLE...AT  THE COAST...MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. INLAND...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ALSO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DETERIORATE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND MVFR CIGS INTO THE
EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. -DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 700 PM PDT TUE 3 MAY 2016...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE STRONGEST OF THE MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS WILL BE IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WITH
INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT...THE GALE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING FOR THAT AREA AND EXTENDED. IT IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. GALES IN THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS MAY IN FACT EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED. -DW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 130 WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL SPLIT
AND THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT HEADS
SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE RESULTANT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING
MOIST, WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
OREGON ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WE`VE
HAD A BROAD, THICK CIRRUS SHIELD OVER US MOST OF THE DAY, WHICH
HAS MOSTLY INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE CASCADES.
HOWEVER, THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AND SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE
TO A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON. THIS WILL PROPAGATE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WEST OF
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL BE ONE FOCUS AREA FOR
SHOWERS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS REGION ARE NEARING
1.00INCH, SO SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE IS ANOTHER FOCUS AREA FARTHER EAST, FROM MODOC COUNTY NORTH-
NORTHWEST TO WINTER RIM AND NORTHERN KLAMATH/NORTHWEST LAKE
COUNTIES, WHERE SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE
TO DESTABILIZE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE AS
THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD AND INSTABILITY WANES.

LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF JUST WEST OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA KEEPING SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THE SOUTH FLOW OF MOIST AIR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE BEST LAPSE RATES (>7C/KM) FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER THE FAR EAST SIDE FROM THE MODOC WARNER MOUNTAINS UP
INTO EASTERN LAKE COUNTY.

THIS PATTERN WILL NOT RESOLVE QUICKLY WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK SET
UP ACROSS THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW RESIDING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE NATION`S MIDSECTION WILL
PREVENT THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM PROGRESSING
EASTWARD...ONLY SLOWLY EDGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FROM THE CASCADES SOUTH AND
EASTWARD THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPILDE

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW THIS WEEKEND. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW STARTS OUT IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY
JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS, THEN GRADUALLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN
UTAH/COLORADO/SOUTHERN WYOMING SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND, THUS
DECIDED TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHWEST LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES WITH A FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITY IN THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION
THE MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST AND HAVE
TRIMMED BACK THE COVERAGE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THERE ARE NO STORMS, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE
THEM COMPLETELY. THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE STARTING TO NUDGE
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES EAST,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF OUR CWA. THE RIDGE (ALBEIT NOT A STRONG ONE) WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA NEXT MONDAY AND REMAIN THERE INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR FLAT OUT DRY CONDITIONS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KPDT 040308
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
808 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST TO NUDGE
INLAND. THE TROUGH HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LEADING TO
SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE
FROM HERMISTON WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY SO JUST GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
WARM SUNNY WEATHER...EASTERN WA/OR WILL SEE MORE ACTIVITY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THE ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND UNDER A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.  MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS WELL.  CURRENTLY...SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADES ALONG WITH A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SNOQUALMIE PASS.  BELIEVE ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED
WEST OF GOLDENDALE...CONDON AND PAULINA.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF
THE CASCADES.  WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES INCREASING TO 300-500 J/KG
AND LI`S LOWERING TO -3C TO -5C...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE GREATER.  HOWEVER...THE HORSEFLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER THAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.

A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY WILL CIRCULATE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN OR/WA.  THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
WEEK WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NE OREGON
WHERE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE IS 35-45 KNOTS AND CAPES WILL APPROACH
1200 J/KG (NOTE THE 12Z GFS IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH THE AMOUNT OF FORCING).  CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE
APPEARS ON TRACK.  PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  WISTER

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST FROM CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A FEW WRAPAROUND SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FROM GRANT TO
WALLOWA COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WASHINGTON.
HOWEVER...EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW IN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA MAY
KEEP SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA WHILE DRIER
CONDITIONS SPREAD INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE
WINDY AT TIMES. FRIDAY EVENING GUSTY N-NELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE IN WASHINGTON AND THE LOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A MARINE PUSH THROUGH WILL
THE CASCADE GAPS WILL BRING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN THEN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE MARINE
PUSH INTO THE 70S.  COONFIELD

AVIATION...0Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORM AFTER 20Z TOMORROW.
THERE ARE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS NEAR KRDM...KBDN... KDLS...AND KYKM
WITH SCT SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY WEST. DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT KRDM
KBDN KDLS KYKM. WINDS WILL BE 5-15KT. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  54  79  51  72 /  20  20  60  50
ALW  59  81  54  73 /  10  10  50  50
PSC  56  83  57  78 /  20  10  50  50
YKM  53  80  53  78 /  30  30  50  30
HRI  54  81  53  76 /  20  10  50  50
ELN  51  77  49  73 /  30  30  50  40
RDM  44  71  41  68 /  50  70  70  50
LGD  44  80  48  68 /  10  20  50  50
GCD  49  79  47  68 /  20  50  60  70
DLS  57  77  51  75 /  40  40  50  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91




000
FXUS66 KPQR 040306
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
805 PM PDT TUE MAY  3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SEEMS MORE LIKE MAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH OVER NEXT FEW DAYS.. THIS
KEEPS A THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THEN HIGH PRES RETURNS
LATER FRI...WITH RETURN TO MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS DRY AND MILD
WEATHER LOOKS TO STRETCH INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH MORNING CLOUDS AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRI)...SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHWARD...WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND UP IN THE CASCADES. CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...SO THUNDERSTORMS OUT THERE NOW WILL
PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT UP INTO UP INTO WASHINGTON. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE MAINTAINS SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. ALONG THE COAST A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE BEING OBSERVED CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

.NO CHANGES TO REST OF DISCUSSION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH THU. MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER NRN CALIF. BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH
TO KEEP THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THU. BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ON WED INTO WED EVENING. IN ADDITION...WILL TREND
WITH HIGHER POPS BASICALLY S OF A MT HOOD TO NEWPORT LINE.
AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD LATER THU AND THU NIGHT...
WILL SEE DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRI...WITH MORNING CLOUDS
GIVING WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT
THAT WILL SEE ANY SHOWERS LEFT OVER THE REGION...SO WILL LOWER POPS
BACK TO 10 PCT OR LESS. IF ANYTHING WERE TO OCCUR...WOULD BE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE CASCADES. BUT WILL GO WITH TREND OF
DRY AND MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH 60S ALONG THE COAST AND BACK INTO
THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.    MCCOY/ROCKEY.


.LONG TERM......(FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE)...OUR TREND OF CLOUDS/DAMP
WEEKDAYS AND SUNNY/MILD WEEKENDS CONTINUES. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL KEEP A MORE JUNE LIKE PATTERN...WITH LATE NIGHT/AM CLOUDS THEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
MON...BUT NOT MUCH IN WAY OF ANY RAIN THREAT. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO
INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW A BIT. SO MON WILL BE BIT COOLER...WITH MORE IN
WAY OF MORNING CLOUDS THEN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.    ROCKEY.
&&

.AVIATION...INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR BUT WITH PLENTY
OF MID-LEVEL AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS IN SOUTH
FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE CASCADES.
CIGS WILL PROBABLY NOT LOWER TO MVFR UNTIL LATER TONIGHT INLAND...
MAYBE NOT UNTIL 09Z TO 12Z. CIGS WILL PROBABLY LIFT INLAND TO VFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CASCADES. COASTAL SITES ARE A MIXTURE OF IFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR LOCAL DRIZZLE...
LIFTING TO MAINLY MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO POSSIBLY REACH THE AIRPORT
AROUND 12Z. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PT
&&

.MARINE...NW TO N WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING WELL
INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS HAVE REACHED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AT BUOY 89 ALREADY...AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND.

SEAS ARE AROUND 6 FT THIS EVENING AND ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
AROUND 8 OR 9 FT BY LATER WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY NEAR 10 FT AFTER
THAT. THE NORTHWEST DRIVEN SEAS WILL TURN INTO FRESH SWELL WITH
SHORT PERIODS AND RESULTING IN CHOPPY OR SQUARE SEAS...AND WILL
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

EXPECT BOTH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE EXTENDED FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE DAYS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM TO
     6 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 040226
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
826 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT UNDER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXISTS IN SOUTHEAST OREGON. A
FEW ECHOES HAVE APPEARED ON RADAR IN THE OREGON ZONES...HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT THE RH VALUES ARE IN THE 20S AND 30 AT BEST...THERE IS
LIKELY NO PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK AND THERE ARE NO UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTHWEST IDAHO TONIGHT. INCREASING
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OREGON SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST
IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO AND
OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST 10 KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHERLY
10-15 KTS UP TO 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW EVOLVING UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY AND LIFT ALONG A SPLITTING TROUGH WILL FOCUS SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION ARE SLOW TO
MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS CUTTING OFF
ALONG THE CENTRAL-CA COAST. SOUTHEAST OREGON REMAINS THE FOCUS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING
INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN BOISE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY. THE TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE ID/OR
BORDER. SOME COOLING THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OREGON ZONES DUE TO GREATER CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL
BE THE MAIN EVENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE UPPER LOW TREKS EAST FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVES
INLAND...SOUTH OF THE NEVADA BORDER...THE PRECIP BULL/S EYE WILL
SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE WILL COME
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF CONFLUENCE SETS UP
ACROSS THE NEVADA BORDER...THOUGH THIS BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE TRENDING
SOUTHWARD WITH EACH MODEL RUN. THEREFORE...COULD SEE LESS AREAL
COVERAGE IN NEXT FORECASTS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
CURVE AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHWEST IDAHO FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A TROUGH TO THE NORTH KICKS
IT OUT OF THE AREA...DRYING OUT THE REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE MID 70S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....AB




000
FXUS66 KPDT 032220 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
320 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
WARM SUNNY WEATHER...EASTERN WA/OR WILL SEE MORE ACTIVITY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THE ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND UNDER A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.  MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS WELL.  CURRENTLY...SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADES ALONG WITH A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SNOQUALMIE PASS.  BELIEVE ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED
WEST OF GOLDENDALE...CONDON AND PAULINA.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF
THE CASCADES.  WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES INCREASING TO 300-500 J/KG
AND LI`S LOWERING TO -3C TO -5C...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE GREATER.  HOWEVER...THE HORSEFLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER THAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.

A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY WILL CIRCULATE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN OR/WA.  THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
WEEK WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NE OREGON
WHERE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE IS 35-45 KNOTS AND CAPES WILL APPROACH
1200 J/KG (NOTE THE 12Z GFS IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH THE AMOUNT OF FORCING).  CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE
APPEARS ON TRACK.  PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  WISTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST FROM CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A FEW WRAPAROUND SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FROM GRANT TO
WALLOWA COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WASHINGTON.
HOWEVER...EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW IN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA MAY
KEEP SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA WHILE DRIER
CONDITIONS SPREAD INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE
WINDY AT TIMES. FRIDAY EVENING GUSTY N-NELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE IN WASHINGTON AND THE LOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A MARINE PUSH THROUGH WILL
THE CASCADE GAPS WILL BRING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN THEN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE MARINE
PUSH INTO THE 70S.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORM AFTER 20Z TOMORROW.
THERE ARE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS NEAR KRDM...KBDN... KDLS...AND KYKM
WITH SCT SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY WEST. DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT KRDM
KBDN KDLS KYKM. WINDS WILL BE 5-15KT. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  78  51  72 /  10  20  60  50
ALW  54  80  54  73 /  10  20  50  50
PSC  58  82  57  78 /  10  20  50  50
YKM  54  80  53  78 /  30  30  50  30
HRI  55  80  53  76 /  10  20  50  50
ELN  51  78  49  73 /  30  30  50  40
RDM  44  71  41  68 /  50  70  70  50
LGD  46  79  48  68 /  10  30  50  50
GCD  48  77  47  68 /  10  50  60  70
DLS  54  75  51  75 /  40  40  50  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/76/76

!--NOT SENT--!




000
FXUS66 KMFR 032153
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
253 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 130 WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL SPLIT
AND THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT HEADS
SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE RESULTANT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING
MOIST, WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
OREGON ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WE`VE
HAD A BROAD, THICK CIRRUS SHIELD OVER US MOST OF THE DAY, WHICH
HAS MOSTLY INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE CASCADES.
HOWEVER, THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AND SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE
TO A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON. THIS WILL PROPAGATE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WEST OF
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL BE ONE FOCUS AREA FOR
SHOWERS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS REGION ARE NEARING
1.00INCH, SO SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE IS ANOTHER FOCUS AREA FARTHER EAST, FROM MODOC COUNTY NORTH-
NORTHWEST TO WINTER RIM AND NORTHERN KLAMATH/NORTHWEST LAKE
COUNTIES, WHERE SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE
TO DESTABILIZE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE AS
THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD AND INSTABILITY WANES.

LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF JUST WEST OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA KEEPING SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THE SOUTH FLOW OF MOIST AIR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE BEST LAPSE RATES (>7C/KM) FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER THE FAR EAST SIDE FROM THE MODOC WARNER MOUNTAINS UP
INTO EASTERN LAKE COUNTY.

THIS PATTERN WILL NOT RESOLVE QUICKLY WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK SET
UP ACROSS THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW RESIDING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE NATION`S MIDSECTION WILL
PREVENT THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM PROGRESSING
EASTWARD...ONLY SLOWLY EDGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FROM THE CASCADES SOUTH AND
EASTWARD THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPILDE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW THIS WEEKEND. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW STARTS OUT IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY
JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS, THEN GRADUALLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN
UTAH/COLORADO/SOUTHERN WYOMING SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND, THUS
DECIDED TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHWEST LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES WITH A FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITY IN THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION
THE MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST AND HAVE
TRIMMED BACK THE COVERAGE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THERE ARE NO STORMS, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE
THEM COMPLETELY. THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE STARTING TO NUDGE
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES EAST,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF OUR CWA. THE RIDGE (ALBEIT NOT A STRONG ONE) WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA NEXT MONDAY AND REMAIN THERE INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR FLAT OUT DRY CONDITIONS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/18Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALONG AND AT THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
CHANCE CIGS COULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 0Z, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH, THUS WE`LL LEAVE MVFR CIGS IN THE TAF. INLAND, THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN KLAMATH FALLS,
SO WE`LL LEAVE IT IN THE TAF. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ISOLATED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE OVER ROSEBURG, SO KEPT IT OUT OF THE TAF
FOR NOW. I DID MENTION VCTS FOR MEDFORD, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO REEVALUATE AND DETERMINE IF VCTS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED. VFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUE 3 MAY 2016...A WEAK FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS.
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH PERIODS OF
HAZARDOUS SEAS OR GALES POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/MAP/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 032153
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
253 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 130 WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL SPLIT
AND THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT HEADS
SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE RESULTANT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING
MOIST, WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
OREGON ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WE`VE
HAD A BROAD, THICK CIRRUS SHIELD OVER US MOST OF THE DAY, WHICH
HAS MOSTLY INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE CASCADES.
HOWEVER, THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AND SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE
TO A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON. THIS WILL PROPAGATE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WEST OF
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL BE ONE FOCUS AREA FOR
SHOWERS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS REGION ARE NEARING
1.00INCH, SO SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE IS ANOTHER FOCUS AREA FARTHER EAST, FROM MODOC COUNTY NORTH-
NORTHWEST TO WINTER RIM AND NORTHERN KLAMATH/NORTHWEST LAKE
COUNTIES, WHERE SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE
TO DESTABILIZE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE AS
THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD AND INSTABILITY WANES.

LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF JUST WEST OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA KEEPING SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THE SOUTH FLOW OF MOIST AIR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE BEST LAPSE RATES (>7C/KM) FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER THE FAR EAST SIDE FROM THE MODOC WARNER MOUNTAINS UP
INTO EASTERN LAKE COUNTY.

THIS PATTERN WILL NOT RESOLVE QUICKLY WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK SET
UP ACROSS THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW RESIDING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE NATION`S MIDSECTION WILL
PREVENT THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM PROGRESSING
EASTWARD...ONLY SLOWLY EDGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FROM THE CASCADES SOUTH AND
EASTWARD THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPILDE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW THIS WEEKEND. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW STARTS OUT IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY
JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS, THEN GRADUALLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN
UTAH/COLORADO/SOUTHERN WYOMING SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND, THUS
DECIDED TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHWEST LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES WITH A FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITY IN THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION
THE MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST AND HAVE
TRIMMED BACK THE COVERAGE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THERE ARE NO STORMS, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE
THEM COMPLETELY. THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE STARTING TO NUDGE
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES EAST,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF OUR CWA. THE RIDGE (ALBEIT NOT A STRONG ONE) WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA NEXT MONDAY AND REMAIN THERE INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR FLAT OUT DRY CONDITIONS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/18Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALONG AND AT THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
CHANCE CIGS COULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 0Z, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH, THUS WE`LL LEAVE MVFR CIGS IN THE TAF. INLAND, THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN KLAMATH FALLS,
SO WE`LL LEAVE IT IN THE TAF. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ISOLATED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE OVER ROSEBURG, SO KEPT IT OUT OF THE TAF
FOR NOW. I DID MENTION VCTS FOR MEDFORD, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO REEVALUATE AND DETERMINE IF VCTS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED. VFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUE 3 MAY 2016...A WEAK FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS.
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH PERIODS OF
HAZARDOUS SEAS OR GALES POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/MAP/DW




000
FXUS66 KPQR 032112
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
211 PM PDT TUE MAY  3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SEEMS MORE LIKE MAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH OVER NEXT FEW DAYS.. THIS
KEEPS A THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THEN HIGH PRES RETURNS
LATER FRI...WITH RETURN TO MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS DRY AND MILD
WEATHER LOOKS TO STRETCH INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH MORNING CLOUDS AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRI)...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...AS UPPER TROUGH
SITS OFFSHORE AND MAINTAINING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN OREGON AND
SW WASHINGTON. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION. BUT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING WHAT OCCURRED ON MON
EVENING. THIS SAID...WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THIS EVENING WITH
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THOUGH WILL KEEP MUCH HIGHER THREAT OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES. AGAIN...JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY THREAT OT MAINTAIN
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A
PLEASANT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR MOST OF REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND EVEN OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE INCREASING ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING.

UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH THU. MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER NRN CALIF. BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH
TO KEEP THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THU. BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ON WED INTO WED EVENING. IN ADDITION...WILL TREND
WITH HIGHER POPS BASICALLY S OF A MT HOOD TO NEWPORT LINE.
AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD LATER THU AND THU NIGHT...
WILL SEE DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRI...WITH MORNING CLOUDS
GIVING WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT
THAT WILL SEE ANY SHOWERS LEFT OVER THE REGION...SO WILL LOWER POPS
BACK TO 10 PCT OR LESS. IF ANYTHING WERE TO OCCUR...WOULD BE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE CASCADES. BUT WILL GO WITH TREND OF
DRY AND MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH 60S ALONG THE COAST AND BACK INTO
THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.       ROCKEY.


.LONG TERM......(FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE)...OUR TREND OF CLOUDS/DAMP
WEEKDAYS AND SUNNY/MILD WEEKENDS CONTINUES. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL KEEP A MORE JUNE LIKE PATTERN...WITH LATE NIGHT/AM CLOUDS THEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
MON...BUT NOT MUCH IN WAY OF ANY RAIN THREAT. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO
INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW A BIT. SO MON WILL BE BIT COOLER...WITH MORE IN
WAY OF MORNING CLOUDS THEN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.    ROCKEY.
&&

.AVIATION...INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR BUT WITH PLENTY
OF MID-LEVEL AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS IN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE
CASCADES. COASTAL SITES WILL CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR CIGS. WILL LIKELY SEE A STRONG MARINE STRATUS PUSH INLAND
TONIGHT AND SHOULD SEE MVFR CIG AT ALL INLAND TAF SITES STARTING
AROUND 10Z. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
TUE EVENING WITH A SLIM THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY PUSH UP THE COLUMBIA AND AFFECT THE TERMINAL
AFTER ABOUT 10Z...RETURNING TO VFR BY 18Z WED. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NW TO N WIND PATTERN RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED SPEEDS DEVELOPING
OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE A POSSIBLE BREAK. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN PLACE AS IS FOR NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS.

SEAS CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT. LATEST SPECTRAL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST SEAS WILL BECOME WIND WAVE DOMINATED THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS SUCH...SEAS WILL BECOME QUITE
CHOPPY AND SO HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS FOR
SQUARE SEAS BEGINNING THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE 7 TO 8 FT
AT 7 TO 8 SECONDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 032107
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
WARM SUNNY WEATHER...EASTERN WA/OR WILL SEE MORE ACTIVITY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THE ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND UNDER A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.  MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS WELL.  CURRENTLY...SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CASCADES ALONG WITH A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SNOQUALMIE PASS.  BELIEVE ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED
WEST OF GOLDENDALE...CONDON AND PAULINA.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF
THE CASCADES.  WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES INCREASING TO 300-500 J/KG
AND LI`S LOWERING TO -3C TO -5C...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE GREATER.  HOWEVER...THE HORSEFLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER THAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY.

A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY WILL CIRCULATE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN OR/WA.  THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
WEEK WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NE OREGON
WHERE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE IS 35-45 KNOTS AND CAPES WILL APPROACH
1200 J/KG (NOTE THE 12Z GFS IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH THE AMOUNT OF FORCING).  CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE
APPEARS ON TRACK.  PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  WISTER



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST FROM CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A FEW WRAPAROUND SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FROM GRANT TO
WALLOWA COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WASHINGTON.
HOWEVER...EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW IN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA MAY
KEEP SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA WHILE DRIER
CONDITIONS SPREAD INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE
WINDY AT TIMES. FRIDAY EVENING GUSTY N-NELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE IN WASHINGTON AND THE LOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A MARINE PUSH THROUGH WILL
THE CASCADE GAPS WILL BRING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN THEN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE MARINE
PUSH INTO THE 70S.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY WEST. THERE WILL BE
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS NEAR KRDM...KBDN... KDLS...AND KYKM AFTER 21Z
WITH A FEW SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDS WILL BE 5-15KT AND A LITTLE
GUSTY AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 76


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  78  51  72 /  10  20  60  50
ALW  54  80  54  73 /  10  20  50  50
PSC  58  82  57  78 /  10  20  50  50
YKM  54  80  53  78 /  30  30  50  30
HRI  55  80  53  76 /  10  20  50  50
ELN  51  78  49  73 /  30  30  50  40
RDM  44  71  41  68 /  50  70  70  50
LGD  46  79  48  68 /  10  30  50  50
GCD  48  77  47  68 /  10  50  60  70
DLS  54  75  51  75 /  40  40  50  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/76/76

!--NOT SENT--!




000
FXUS65 KBOI 032045
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
245 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW EVOLVING UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY AND LIFT ALONG A SPLITTING TROUGH WILL FOCUS SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION ARE SLOW TO
MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS CUTTING OFF
ALONG THE CENTRAL-CA COAST. SOUTHEAST OREGON REMAINS THE FOCUS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING
INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN BOISE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY. THE TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE ID/OR
BORDER. SOME COOLING THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OREGON ZONES DUE TO GREATER CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL
BE THE MAIN EVENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE UPPER LOW TREKS EAST FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVES
INLAND...SOUTH OF THE NEVADA BORDER...THE PRECIP BULL/S EYE WILL
SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE WILL COME
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF CONFLUENCE SETS UP
ACROSS THE NEVADA BORDER...THOUGH THIS BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE TRENDING
SOUTHWARD WITH EACH MODEL RUN. THEREFORE...COULD SEE LESS AREAL
COVERAGE IN NEXT FORECASTS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
CURVE AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHWEST IDAHO FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A TROUGH TO THE NORTH KICKS
IT OUT OF THE AREA...DRYING OUT THE REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE MID 70S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR. INCREASED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AS EARLY AS
WED/15Z. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE GENERALLY 12 KTS OF LESS. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY THROUGH WED/03Z. WINDS ALOFT
UP TO 10K FT MSL...SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....AB
AVIATION.....AB




000
FXUS66 KPDT 031651 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
951 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN A FEW OF OUR ZONES THIS MORNING AND TO
INCREASE POPS AN ADDITIONAL 5-10 PCT FOR AREAS NEAR THE CASCADE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN HAS
SET UP FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE U.S. AN ELONGATED
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND THE UPPER FLOW HAS
BACKED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADE RANGE AND AS FAR EAST
AS BICKLETON...CONDON AND PAULINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR LOOKS
REASONABLE SHOWING SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND 1400 AND INCREASING
IN COVERAGE BY 1800. SURFACE-BASED CAPES ARE AROUND 300 J/KG AND
LI`S BETWEEN 0 TO -2...SO THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE BULK WIND SHEAR IS MINIMAL TODAY...SO
HAVING A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT LIKELY
TO HAPPEN.

ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA
VALLEY. WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY WEST. THERE WILL BE
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS NEAR KRDM...KBDN... KDLS...AND KYKM AFTER 21Z
WITH A FEW SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDS WILL BE 5-15KT AND A LITTLE
GUSTY AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COOLER AIR WILL
INTRUDE. STILL...THERE WILL BE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SPUN UP
OVER THE AREA FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS WELL AS
INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THERE MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH
MODERATE 500-300MB LAPSE RATES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BUT FOR
NOW JUST CONTINUING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COULD ALSO AID IN
AIR ACCELERATING UPWARD.  SO FOR THIS AREA...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BY A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEY WILL STILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEBER

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE FROM CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THURSDAY EVENING
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. JUST THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A SHOWER OR STORM ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK DRY AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WINDY PERIODS. THE FIRST WILL BE
FRIDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY N-NELY WINDS AND THE SECOND SUNDAY EVENING
IN THE CASCADE GAPS WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING PEAKING SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COLUMBIA BASIN
THEN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S LOWER
ELEVATIONS. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  86  51  77  51 /   0  10  20  50
ALW  86  54  80  53 /   0  10  20  50
PSC  87  55  82  56 /   0  10  20  40
YKM  84  54  81  51 /  10  30  30  30
HRI  86  54  79  53 /   0  10  20  40
ELN  82  52  78  49 /  10  30  30  40
RDM  75  45  69  43 /  30  50  60  60
LGD  80  47  79  48 /   0  10  30  40
GCD  79  46  77  47 /  10  10  50  60
DLS  82  55  76  52 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/76




000
FXUS66 KPDT 031651 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
951 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN A FEW OF OUR ZONES THIS MORNING AND TO
INCREASE POPS AN ADDITIONAL 5-10 PCT FOR AREAS NEAR THE CASCADE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN HAS
SET UP FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE U.S. AN ELONGATED
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND THE UPPER FLOW HAS
BACKED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADE RANGE AND AS FAR EAST
AS BICKLETON...CONDON AND PAULINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR LOOKS
REASONABLE SHOWING SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND 1400 AND INCREASING
IN COVERAGE BY 1800. SURFACE-BASED CAPES ARE AROUND 300 J/KG AND
LI`S BETWEEN 0 TO -2...SO THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE BULK WIND SHEAR IS MINIMAL TODAY...SO
HAVING A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT LIKELY
TO HAPPEN.

ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA
VALLEY. WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY WEST. THERE WILL BE
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS NEAR KRDM...KBDN... KDLS...AND KYKM AFTER 21Z
WITH A FEW SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. WINDS WILL BE 5-15KT AND A LITTLE
GUSTY AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COOLER AIR WILL
INTRUDE. STILL...THERE WILL BE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SPUN UP
OVER THE AREA FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS WELL AS
INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THERE MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH
MODERATE 500-300MB LAPSE RATES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BUT FOR
NOW JUST CONTINUING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COULD ALSO AID IN
AIR ACCELERATING UPWARD.  SO FOR THIS AREA...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BY A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEY WILL STILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEBER

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE FROM CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THURSDAY EVENING
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. JUST THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A SHOWER OR STORM ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK DRY AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WINDY PERIODS. THE FIRST WILL BE
FRIDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY N-NELY WINDS AND THE SECOND SUNDAY EVENING
IN THE CASCADE GAPS WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING PEAKING SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COLUMBIA BASIN
THEN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S LOWER
ELEVATIONS. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  86  51  77  51 /   0  10  20  50
ALW  86  54  80  53 /   0  10  20  50
PSC  87  55  82  56 /   0  10  20  40
YKM  84  54  81  51 /  10  30  30  30
HRI  86  54  79  53 /   0  10  20  40
ELN  82  52  78  49 /  10  30  30  40
RDM  75  45  69  43 /  30  50  60  60
LGD  80  47  79  48 /   0  10  30  40
GCD  79  46  77  47 /  10  10  50  60
DLS  82  55  76  52 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/76




000
FXUS66 KMFR 031634
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
934 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
CONTINUES TO EDGE CLOSER THIS MORNING. A BROAD, FAIRLY THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF SISKIYOU COUNTY AND FROM THE
CASCADES WESTWARD. HIGH CLOUDS THIN OUT OVER MODOC, EASTERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE TODAY WITH MINIMUM 850 LI OF -2 AND CAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 150-250 J/KG. STILL, WITH THE TROUGH EDGING CLOSER, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND INCREASING
MOISTURE, THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS EASTWARD. THE HIGH CLOUD LAYER
THIS MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THESE AREAS INCREASING TO 0.75-1.00
INCH THIS AFTERNOON, SO SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
ABILITY TO PRODUCE BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE AREA OF SHOWERS IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AROUND 21Z, THEN
PROPAGATE NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD INTO JOSEPHINE, EASTERN CURRY, COOS
AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER AREA
FROM THE CASCADES NORTH OF HOWARD PRAIRIE AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE EAST SIDE FROM CHEMULT SOUTHEAST TO LAKEVIEW AND
THE WARNERS IN MODOC COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM
19-21Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AND SO SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF JUST OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, EXPECT AN ACTIVE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
LOWER UMPQUA BASIN...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR TO THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL REMAIN OBSCURED.  OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUE 3 MAY 2016...A WEAK FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS.
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH PERIODS OF
HAZARDOUS SEAS OR GALES POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE COAST
TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AND INDICATE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BOTH
THE NAM12 AND THE GFS BRING A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE ALONG
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH SEEM TO KEY IN ON THE CASCADES
FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD AS THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO GENERATE A TENTH
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVED CLOSER TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. THE DYNAMICS AGAIN LOOKS FAVORABLE TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DOWN INTO THE 60S IN THE ROGUE VALLEY DUE TO OVERCAST SKY. THE
CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP PULL A COLD FRONT INLAND. THERE
WILL STILL BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
BACK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CASCADES EAST, ALTHOUGH OUR
COASTAL ZONES AND DOUGLAS COUNTY SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CLEARING
WITH DECREASING SHOWERS.

THE LATEST GFS SHOWS NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. WRAPPED
AROUND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES
AND LAKE COUNTY UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS COULD EXTEND BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
CASCADES IN JACKSON COUNTY BUT MOST OF SW OREGON WILL SEE A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND NEXT WEEKEND. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

MAS/FJB/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 031634
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
934 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
CONTINUES TO EDGE CLOSER THIS MORNING. A BROAD, FAIRLY THICK LAYER
OF HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF SISKIYOU COUNTY AND FROM THE
CASCADES WESTWARD. HIGH CLOUDS THIN OUT OVER MODOC, EASTERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE TODAY WITH MINIMUM 850 LI OF -2 AND CAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 150-250 J/KG. STILL, WITH THE TROUGH EDGING CLOSER, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND INCREASING
MOISTURE, THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS EASTWARD. THE HIGH CLOUD LAYER
THIS MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THESE AREAS INCREASING TO 0.75-1.00
INCH THIS AFTERNOON, SO SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
ABILITY TO PRODUCE BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE AREA OF SHOWERS IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AROUND 21Z, THEN
PROPAGATE NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD INTO JOSEPHINE, EASTERN CURRY, COOS
AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER AREA
FROM THE CASCADES NORTH OF HOWARD PRAIRIE AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE EAST SIDE FROM CHEMULT SOUTHEAST TO LAKEVIEW AND
THE WARNERS IN MODOC COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM
19-21Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AND SO SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF JUST OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, EXPECT AN ACTIVE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
LOWER UMPQUA BASIN...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR TO THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL REMAIN OBSCURED.  OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUE 3 MAY 2016...A WEAK FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS.
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH PERIODS OF
HAZARDOUS SEAS OR GALES POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE COAST
TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AND INDICATE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BOTH
THE NAM12 AND THE GFS BRING A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE ALONG
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH SEEM TO KEY IN ON THE CASCADES
FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD AS THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO GENERATE A TENTH
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVED CLOSER TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. THE DYNAMICS AGAIN LOOKS FAVORABLE TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DOWN INTO THE 60S IN THE ROGUE VALLEY DUE TO OVERCAST SKY. THE
CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP PULL A COLD FRONT INLAND. THERE
WILL STILL BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
BACK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CASCADES EAST, ALTHOUGH OUR
COASTAL ZONES AND DOUGLAS COUNTY SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CLEARING
WITH DECREASING SHOWERS.

THE LATEST GFS SHOWS NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. WRAPPED
AROUND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES
AND LAKE COUNTY UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS COULD EXTEND BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
CASCADES IN JACKSON COUNTY BUT MOST OF SW OREGON WILL SEE A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND NEXT WEEKEND. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

MAS/FJB/JRS




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031620
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
918 AM PDT TUE MAY  3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INCHING TOWARD THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRAY THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN THE
CASCADES. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS INCREASINGLY ONSHORE...EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD INLAND TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
REORGANIZE INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU...NO CHANGES. AFTER YET ANOTHER DAY
OF RECORD BREAKING WARMTH FOR SOME...TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER
ACROSS SW WA/NW OR AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS INCREASINGLY ONSHORE. PRES
GRADIENTS HAVE FLIPPED AROUND TO ONSHORE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
BOTH ON THE SYNOPTIC AND MESO SCALES. KTTD-KDLS WAS AT ABOUT +3 MB AS
OF 2 AM...WITH KOTH-KGEG GRADIENTS TURNING ONSHORE AS WELL. THIS
WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE A GOOD 10-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY FOR INLAND
AREAS...AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NE PACIFIC WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL WED/THU.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE SHALLOW/WEAK INSTABILITY BETWEEN
700-500 MB THIS MORNING...BUT DESPITE BEING ELEVATED CONVECTION THE
TOPS ARE STILL GENERALLY NOT HIGH/COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE REQUISITE
CHARGE SEPARATION FOR LIGHTNING. DECIDED TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING...THOUGH A STRAY STRIKE OR TWO LIKE THE ONES
RECENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ANYWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AT BEST ABOVE 500 MB.
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL BRING MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT ALSO APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING WEST
OF THE CASCADES EITHER DAY.

THE REMNANTS OF OUR DYING COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO
REORGANIZE INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WHILE MOST MODELS BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN BC AND
WASHINGTON. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW
ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND...WITH THURSDAY APPEARING TO BE THE BEGINNING OF
THAT TRANSITION. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISH AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES THU/FRI AS A RESULT.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...(THU NIGHT
THROUGH MON)... MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
AS HEIGHTS RISE AND THE AIR MASS WARMS.   CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR BUT WITH PLENTY
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
LEAD TO A THREAT OF SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CASCADES.
COASTAL SITES WILL CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR FOR
BOTH CIGS AND VIS. MODELS SUGGEST MUCH DEEPER MARINE CLOUD
PENETRATION INLAND AFTER 06Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z WED.
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH A
SLIM THREAT OF SHOWERS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE VICINITY.
MVFR CIGS COULD UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO NEAR KPDX AFTER 06Z TO AS
LATE AS TO 18Z WED. BOWEN/WEISHAAR
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT MAX GUSTS HAVE BEEN UNDER 20 KT. NW TO N WIND
PATTERN RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED SPEEDS DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER
WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THU.
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND IN THE OUTER WATERS
BEGINNING 00Z WED. INNER WATERS WILL SEE 25 KT WIND GUSTS BEGIN A
LITTLE LATER. OUTER WATERS COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS HAVE NUDGED DOWN A BIT MORE...GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT. LATEST
SPECTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SEAS TO BECOME WIND WAVE DOMINATED
EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUTER
WATERS LIKELY TO SEE WIND WAVES UP TO 6 FT...WITH A LONGER-PERIOD
SWELL COMPONENT OF 2-4 FT. SEAS WILL BECOME QUITE CHOPPY AND THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUARE SEAS STARTING WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND CONSIDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR SEAS STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOWEN/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031620
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
918 AM PDT TUE MAY  3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INCHING TOWARD THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRAY THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN THE
CASCADES. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS INCREASINGLY ONSHORE...EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD INLAND TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
REORGANIZE INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU...NO CHANGES. AFTER YET ANOTHER DAY
OF RECORD BREAKING WARMTH FOR SOME...TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER
ACROSS SW WA/NW OR AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS INCREASINGLY ONSHORE. PRES
GRADIENTS HAVE FLIPPED AROUND TO ONSHORE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
BOTH ON THE SYNOPTIC AND MESO SCALES. KTTD-KDLS WAS AT ABOUT +3 MB AS
OF 2 AM...WITH KOTH-KGEG GRADIENTS TURNING ONSHORE AS WELL. THIS
WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE A GOOD 10-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY FOR INLAND
AREAS...AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NE PACIFIC WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL WED/THU.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE SHALLOW/WEAK INSTABILITY BETWEEN
700-500 MB THIS MORNING...BUT DESPITE BEING ELEVATED CONVECTION THE
TOPS ARE STILL GENERALLY NOT HIGH/COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE REQUISITE
CHARGE SEPARATION FOR LIGHTNING. DECIDED TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING...THOUGH A STRAY STRIKE OR TWO LIKE THE ONES
RECENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ANYWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AT BEST ABOVE 500 MB.
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL BRING MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT ALSO APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING WEST
OF THE CASCADES EITHER DAY.

THE REMNANTS OF OUR DYING COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO
REORGANIZE INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WHILE MOST MODELS BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN BC AND
WASHINGTON. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW
ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND...WITH THURSDAY APPEARING TO BE THE BEGINNING OF
THAT TRANSITION. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISH AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES THU/FRI AS A RESULT.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...(THU NIGHT
THROUGH MON)... MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
AS HEIGHTS RISE AND THE AIR MASS WARMS.   CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR BUT WITH PLENTY
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
LEAD TO A THREAT OF SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CASCADES.
COASTAL SITES WILL CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR FOR
BOTH CIGS AND VIS. MODELS SUGGEST MUCH DEEPER MARINE CLOUD
PENETRATION INLAND AFTER 06Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z WED.
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH A
SLIM THREAT OF SHOWERS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE VICINITY.
MVFR CIGS COULD UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO NEAR KPDX AFTER 06Z TO AS
LATE AS TO 18Z WED. BOWEN/WEISHAAR
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT MAX GUSTS HAVE BEEN UNDER 20 KT. NW TO N WIND
PATTERN RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED SPEEDS DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER
WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THU.
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND IN THE OUTER WATERS
BEGINNING 00Z WED. INNER WATERS WILL SEE 25 KT WIND GUSTS BEGIN A
LITTLE LATER. OUTER WATERS COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS HAVE NUDGED DOWN A BIT MORE...GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT. LATEST
SPECTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SEAS TO BECOME WIND WAVE DOMINATED
EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUTER
WATERS LIKELY TO SEE WIND WAVES UP TO 6 FT...WITH A LONGER-PERIOD
SWELL COMPONENT OF 2-4 FT. SEAS WILL BECOME QUITE CHOPPY AND THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUARE SEAS STARTING WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND CONSIDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR SEAS STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOWEN/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031620
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
918 AM PDT TUE MAY  3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INCHING TOWARD THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRAY THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN THE
CASCADES. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS INCREASINGLY ONSHORE...EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD INLAND TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
REORGANIZE INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU...NO CHANGES. AFTER YET ANOTHER DAY
OF RECORD BREAKING WARMTH FOR SOME...TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER
ACROSS SW WA/NW OR AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS INCREASINGLY ONSHORE. PRES
GRADIENTS HAVE FLIPPED AROUND TO ONSHORE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
BOTH ON THE SYNOPTIC AND MESO SCALES. KTTD-KDLS WAS AT ABOUT +3 MB AS
OF 2 AM...WITH KOTH-KGEG GRADIENTS TURNING ONSHORE AS WELL. THIS
WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE A GOOD 10-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY FOR INLAND
AREAS...AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NE PACIFIC WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL WED/THU.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE SHALLOW/WEAK INSTABILITY BETWEEN
700-500 MB THIS MORNING...BUT DESPITE BEING ELEVATED CONVECTION THE
TOPS ARE STILL GENERALLY NOT HIGH/COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE REQUISITE
CHARGE SEPARATION FOR LIGHTNING. DECIDED TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING...THOUGH A STRAY STRIKE OR TWO LIKE THE ONES
RECENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ANYWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AT BEST ABOVE 500 MB.
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL BRING MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT ALSO APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING WEST
OF THE CASCADES EITHER DAY.

THE REMNANTS OF OUR DYING COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO
REORGANIZE INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WHILE MOST MODELS BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN BC AND
WASHINGTON. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW
ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND...WITH THURSDAY APPEARING TO BE THE BEGINNING OF
THAT TRANSITION. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISH AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES THU/FRI AS A RESULT.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...(THU NIGHT
THROUGH MON)... MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
AS HEIGHTS RISE AND THE AIR MASS WARMS.   CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR BUT WITH PLENTY
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
LEAD TO A THREAT OF SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CASCADES.
COASTAL SITES WILL CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR FOR
BOTH CIGS AND VIS. MODELS SUGGEST MUCH DEEPER MARINE CLOUD
PENETRATION INLAND AFTER 06Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z WED.
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH A
SLIM THREAT OF SHOWERS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE VICINITY.
MVFR CIGS COULD UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO NEAR KPDX AFTER 06Z TO AS
LATE AS TO 18Z WED. BOWEN/WEISHAAR
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT MAX GUSTS HAVE BEEN UNDER 20 KT. NW TO N WIND
PATTERN RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED SPEEDS DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER
WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THU.
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND IN THE OUTER WATERS
BEGINNING 00Z WED. INNER WATERS WILL SEE 25 KT WIND GUSTS BEGIN A
LITTLE LATER. OUTER WATERS COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS HAVE NUDGED DOWN A BIT MORE...GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT. LATEST
SPECTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SEAS TO BECOME WIND WAVE DOMINATED
EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUTER
WATERS LIKELY TO SEE WIND WAVES UP TO 6 FT...WITH A LONGER-PERIOD
SWELL COMPONENT OF 2-4 FT. SEAS WILL BECOME QUITE CHOPPY AND THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUARE SEAS STARTING WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND CONSIDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR SEAS STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOWEN/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031620
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
918 AM PDT TUE MAY  3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INCHING TOWARD THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRAY THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN THE
CASCADES. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS INCREASINGLY ONSHORE...EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD INLAND TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
REORGANIZE INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU...NO CHANGES. AFTER YET ANOTHER DAY
OF RECORD BREAKING WARMTH FOR SOME...TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER
ACROSS SW WA/NW OR AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS INCREASINGLY ONSHORE. PRES
GRADIENTS HAVE FLIPPED AROUND TO ONSHORE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
BOTH ON THE SYNOPTIC AND MESO SCALES. KTTD-KDLS WAS AT ABOUT +3 MB AS
OF 2 AM...WITH KOTH-KGEG GRADIENTS TURNING ONSHORE AS WELL. THIS
WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE A GOOD 10-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY FOR INLAND
AREAS...AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NE PACIFIC WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL WED/THU.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE SHALLOW/WEAK INSTABILITY BETWEEN
700-500 MB THIS MORNING...BUT DESPITE BEING ELEVATED CONVECTION THE
TOPS ARE STILL GENERALLY NOT HIGH/COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE REQUISITE
CHARGE SEPARATION FOR LIGHTNING. DECIDED TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING...THOUGH A STRAY STRIKE OR TWO LIKE THE ONES
RECENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ANYWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AT BEST ABOVE 500 MB.
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL BRING MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT ALSO APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING WEST
OF THE CASCADES EITHER DAY.

THE REMNANTS OF OUR DYING COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO
REORGANIZE INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WHILE MOST MODELS BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN BC AND
WASHINGTON. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW
ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND...WITH THURSDAY APPEARING TO BE THE BEGINNING OF
THAT TRANSITION. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISH AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES THU/FRI AS A RESULT.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...(THU NIGHT
THROUGH MON)... MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
AS HEIGHTS RISE AND THE AIR MASS WARMS.   CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR BUT WITH PLENTY
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
LEAD TO A THREAT OF SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CASCADES.
COASTAL SITES WILL CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR FOR
BOTH CIGS AND VIS. MODELS SUGGEST MUCH DEEPER MARINE CLOUD
PENETRATION INLAND AFTER 06Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z WED.
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH A
SLIM THREAT OF SHOWERS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE VICINITY.
MVFR CIGS COULD UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO NEAR KPDX AFTER 06Z TO AS
LATE AS TO 18Z WED. BOWEN/WEISHAAR
&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT MAX GUSTS HAVE BEEN UNDER 20 KT. NW TO N WIND
PATTERN RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED SPEEDS DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER
WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THU.
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND IN THE OUTER WATERS
BEGINNING 00Z WED. INNER WATERS WILL SEE 25 KT WIND GUSTS BEGIN A
LITTLE LATER. OUTER WATERS COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS HAVE NUDGED DOWN A BIT MORE...GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT. LATEST
SPECTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SEAS TO BECOME WIND WAVE DOMINATED
EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUTER
WATERS LIKELY TO SEE WIND WAVES UP TO 6 FT...WITH A LONGER-PERIOD
SWELL COMPONENT OF 2-4 FT. SEAS WILL BECOME QUITE CHOPPY AND THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUARE SEAS STARTING WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND CONSIDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR SEAS STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOWEN/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 031614
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1014 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE TODAY WITH A SURFACE THERMAL
TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING ALOFT WILL
BRING ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF SURFACE WARMING FROM YESTERDAY. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL DRIVE AN EASTERLY WIND THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER
HELPING TO FURTHER WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN.
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR. INCREASED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE GENERALLY
12 KTS OF LESS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT MSL...SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WAS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. BOTH
FEATURES...THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH
WILL RESIDE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S TODAY AND MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE NEAR THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN HARNEY COUNTY. THE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN SE
OREGON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AND EVOLVE INTO A LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW TOWARDS THE EAST WHICH MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
PROBABLY WILL NOT SPREAD EAST OF THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER UNTIL
THURSDAY. A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP IN A
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT
UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY WHICH MEANS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AS WELL. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PULL WELL TO THE EAST OF OREGON ON
SUNDAY AND SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM IDAHO ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER RETURNING TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 031614
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1014 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE TODAY WITH A SURFACE THERMAL
TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING ALOFT WILL
BRING ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF SURFACE WARMING FROM YESTERDAY. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL DRIVE AN EASTERLY WIND THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER
HELPING TO FURTHER WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN.
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR. INCREASED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE GENERALLY
12 KTS OF LESS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT MSL...SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WAS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. BOTH
FEATURES...THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH
WILL RESIDE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S TODAY AND MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE NEAR THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN HARNEY COUNTY. THE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN SE
OREGON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AND EVOLVE INTO A LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW TOWARDS THE EAST WHICH MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
PROBABLY WILL NOT SPREAD EAST OF THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER UNTIL
THURSDAY. A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP IN A
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT
UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY WHICH MEANS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AS WELL. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PULL WELL TO THE EAST OF OREGON ON
SUNDAY AND SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM IDAHO ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER RETURNING TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JB




000
FXUS66 KPDT 031549
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
849 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN A FEW OF OUR ZONES THIS MORNING AND TO
INCREASE POPS AN ADDITIONAL 5-10 PCT FOR AREAS NEAR THE CASCADE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN HAS
SET UP FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE U.S. AN ELONGATED
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND THE UPPER FLOW HAS
BACKED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADE RANGE AND AS FAR EAST
AS BICKLETON...CONDON AND PAULINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR LOOKS
REASONABLE SHOWING SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND 1400 AND INCREASING
IN COVERAGE BY 1800. SURFACE-BASED CAPES ARE AROUND 300 J/KG AND
LI`S BETWEEN 0 TO -2...SO THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE BULK WIND SHEAR IS MINIMAL TODAY...SO
HAVING A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT LIKELY
TO HAPPEN.

ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA
VALLEY. WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COOLER AIR WILL
INTRUDE. STILL...THERE WILL BE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SPUN UP
OVER THE AREA FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS WELL AS
INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THERE MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH
MODERATE 500-300MB LAPSE RATES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BUT FOR
NOW JUST CONTINUING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COULD ALSO AID IN
AIR ACCELERATING UPWARD.  SO FOR THIS AREA...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BY A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEY WILL STILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEBER

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE FROM CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THURSDAY EVENING
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. JUST THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A SHOWER OR STORM ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK DRY AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WINDY PERIODS. THE FIRST WILL BE
FRIDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY N-NELY WINDS AND THE SECOND SUNDAY EVENING
IN THE CASCADE GAPS WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING PEAKING SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COLUMBIA BASIN
THEN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S LOWER
ELEVATIONS. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME MID CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS NEAR KRDM...KBDN...
KDLS...AND KYKM AFTER 21Z WITH A FEW SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. FOR
THIS SET OF TAFS DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING IN TSRA. WILL LET THE
POTENTIAL BE FINE TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE 5-15KT AND
A LITTLE GUSTY AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  86  51  77  51 /   0  10  20  50
ALW  86  54  80  53 /   0  10  20  50
PSC  87  55  82  56 /   0  10  20  40
YKM  84  54  81  51 /  10  30  30  30
HRI  86  54  79  53 /   0  10  20  40
ELN  82  52  78  49 /  10  30  30  40
RDM  75  45  69  43 /  30  50  60  60
LGD  80  47  79  48 /   0  10  30  40
GCD  79  46  77  47 /  10  10  50  60
DLS  82  55  76  52 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/76




000
FXUS66 KPDT 031549
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
849 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE
TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN A FEW OF OUR ZONES THIS MORNING AND TO
INCREASE POPS AN ADDITIONAL 5-10 PCT FOR AREAS NEAR THE CASCADE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN HAS
SET UP FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE U.S. AN ELONGATED
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...AND THE UPPER FLOW HAS
BACKED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADE RANGE AND AS FAR EAST
AS BICKLETON...CONDON AND PAULINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR LOOKS
REASONABLE SHOWING SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND 1400 AND INCREASING
IN COVERAGE BY 1800. SURFACE-BASED CAPES ARE AROUND 300 J/KG AND
LI`S BETWEEN 0 TO -2...SO THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE BULK WIND SHEAR IS MINIMAL TODAY...SO
HAVING A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT LIKELY
TO HAPPEN.

ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA
VALLEY. WISTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COOLER AIR WILL
INTRUDE. STILL...THERE WILL BE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SPUN UP
OVER THE AREA FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS WELL AS
INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THERE MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH
MODERATE 500-300MB LAPSE RATES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BUT FOR
NOW JUST CONTINUING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COULD ALSO AID IN
AIR ACCELERATING UPWARD.  SO FOR THIS AREA...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BY A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEY WILL STILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEBER

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE FROM CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THURSDAY EVENING
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. JUST THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A SHOWER OR STORM ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK DRY AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WINDY PERIODS. THE FIRST WILL BE
FRIDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY N-NELY WINDS AND THE SECOND SUNDAY EVENING
IN THE CASCADE GAPS WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING PEAKING SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COLUMBIA BASIN
THEN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S LOWER
ELEVATIONS. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME MID CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS NEAR KRDM...KBDN...
KDLS...AND KYKM AFTER 21Z WITH A FEW SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. FOR
THIS SET OF TAFS DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING IN TSRA. WILL LET THE
POTENTIAL BE FINE TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE 5-15KT AND
A LITTLE GUSTY AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  86  51  77  51 /   0  10  20  50
ALW  86  54  80  53 /   0  10  20  50
PSC  87  55  82  56 /   0  10  20  40
YKM  84  54  81  51 /  10  30  30  30
HRI  86  54  79  53 /   0  10  20  40
ELN  82  52  78  49 /  10  30  30  40
RDM  75  45  69  43 /  30  50  60  60
LGD  80  47  79  48 /   0  10  30  40
GCD  79  46  77  47 /  10  10  50  60
DLS  82  55  76  52 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

85/76




000
FXUS66 KMFR 031014
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
314 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE COAST
TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AND INDICATE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BOTH
THE NAM12 AND THE GFS BRING A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE ALONG
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH SEEM TO KEY IN ON THE CASCADES
FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD AS THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO GENERATE A TENTH
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVED CLOSER TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. THE DYNAMICS AGAIN LOOKS FAVORABLE TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DOWN INTO THE 60S IN THE ROGUE VALLEY DUE TO OVERCAST SKY. THE
CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP PULL A COLD FRONT INLAND. THERE
WILL STILL BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
BACK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CASCADES EAST, ALTHOUGH OUR
COASTAL ZONES AND DOUGLAS COUNTY SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CLEARING
WITH DECREASING SHOWERS.

THE LATEST GFS SHOWS NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. WRAPPED
AROUND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES
AND LAKE COUNTY UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS COULD EXTEND BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
CASCADES IN JACKSON COUNTY BUT MOST OF SW OREGON WILL SEE A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND NEXT WEEKEND. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/06Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT BREEZY WINDS AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE COAST, LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
COVERING THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AND LIKELY ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. IT WILL SURGE INLAND TONIGHT, WITH ONLY
PARTIAL CLEARING AT BEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUE 3 MAY 2016...A WEAK FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS.
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH PERIODS OF
HAZARDOUS SEAS OR GALES POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

FJB/TRW/SBN




000
FXUS66 KPDT 031000
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE
FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY.  WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO FOCUS THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND THE
ADJACENT VALLEYS...AS DRIER AIR LOOKS TO BE ON OUR EASTERN ZONES.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COOLER AIR WILL INTRUDE. STILL...THERE WILL
BE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SPUN UP OVER THE AREA FOR ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS WELL AS INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THERE MAY BE SOME UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH MODERATE 500-300MB LAPSE RATES.  WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS BUT FOR NOW JUST CONTINUING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COULD ALSO AID IN
AIR ACCELERATING UPWARD.  SO FOR THIS AREA...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BY A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEY WILL STILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEBER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE FROM CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THURSDAY EVENING
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. JUST THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A SHOWER OR STORM ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK DRY AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WINDY PERIODS. THE FIRST WILL BE
FRIDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY N-NELY WINDS AND THE SECOND SUNDAY EVENING
IN THE CASCADE GAPS WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING PEAKING SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COLUMBIA BASIN
THEN COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S LOWER
ELEVATIONS. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME MID CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS NEAR KRDM...KBDN...
KDLS...AND KYKM AFTER 21Z WITH A FEW SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA. FOR
THIS SET OF TAFS DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING IN TSRA. WILL LET THE
POTENTIAL BE FINE TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE 5-15KT AND
A LITTLE GUSTY AT KDLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  85  51  77  51 /   0  10  20  50
ALW  86  54  80  53 /   0  10  20  50
PSC  87  55  82  56 /   0  10  20  40
YKM  84  54  81  51 /  10  20  30  30
HRI  86  54  79  53 /   0  10  20  40
ELN  82  52  78  49 /  10  20  30  40
RDM  75  45  69  43 /  30  40  60  60
LGD  81  47  79  48 /   0  10  30  40
GCD  79  46  77  47 /  10  10  50  60
DLS  80  55  76  52 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/78/78




000
FXUS66 KPQR 030943
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
243 AM PDT TUE MAY  3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INCHING TOWARD THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRAY THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN THE
CASCADES. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS INCREASINGLY ONSHORE...EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD INLAND TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
REORGANIZE INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AFTER YET ANOTHER DAY OF
RECORD BREAKING WARMTH FOR SOME...TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER ACROSS
SW WA/NW OR AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS INCREASINGLY ONSHORE. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS HAVE FLIPPED AROUND TO ONSHORE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
BOTH ON THE SYNOPTIC AND MESO SCALES. KTTD-KDLS WAS AT ABOUT +3 MB AS
OF 2 AM...WITH KOTH-KGEG GRADIENTS TURNING ONSHORE AS WELL. THIS
WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE PACIFIC AND HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE A GOOD 10-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY FOR INLAND
AREAS...AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NE PACIFIC WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL WED/THU.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE SHALLOW/WEAK INSTABILITY BETWEEN
700-500 MB THIS MORNING...BUT DESPITE BEING ELEVATED CONVECTION THE
TOPS ARE STILL GENERALLY NOT HIGH/COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE REQUISITE
CHARGE SEPARATION FOR LIGHTNING. DECIDED TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING...THOUGH A STRAY STRIKE OR TWO LIKE THE ONES
RECENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ANYWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AT BEST ABOVE 500 MB.
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL BRING MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT ALSO APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING WEST
OF THE CASCADES EITHER DAY.

THE REMNANTS OF OUR DYING COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO
REORGANIZE INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WHILE MOST MODELS BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN BC AND
WASHINGTON. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW
ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND...WITH THURSDAY APPEARING TO BE THE BEGINNING OF
THAT TRANSITION. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISH AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES THU/FRI AS A RESULT.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
AS HEIGHTS RISE AND THE AIR MASS WARMS.   CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR ALONG THE COAST AT 10Z AS A SOUTH WIND REVERSAL
CONTINUES. LIKELY SEEING SOME OF THE MVFR CIGS PUSHING UP THE
MAJOR COASTAL RIVER DRAINAGES. VFR ELSEWHERE. COASTAL AREAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN GO
TO A MIX OF MVFR TO LOW-END VFR. INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH
VFR BUT WITH PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT.
AFTERNOON HEATING TUE WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF SHOWERS...PRIMARILY
ALONG THE CASCADES. MODELS SUGGEST MUCH DEEPER MARINE CLOUD
PENETRATION INLAND AFTER 06Z WED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z WED.
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH A
SLIM THREAT OF SHOWERS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE VICINITY.
MVFR CIGS COULD UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO NEAR KPDX 07Z TO 12Z WED.
WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WIND REVERSAL ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT MAX GUSTS HAVE BEEN UNDER 20 KT. NW TO N WIND
PATTERN RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED SPEEDS DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER
WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THU.
WILL GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND IN THE OUTER WATERS
BEGINNING 00Z WED. INNER WATERS WILL SEE 25 KT WIND GUSTS BEGIN A
LITTLE LATER. THUS...STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE AT 06Z
WED. OUTER WATERS COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SEAS HAVE NUDGED DOWN A BIT SINCE EARLIER THIS EVENING...GENERALLY
6 TO 7 FT. LATEST SPECTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SEAS TO BECOME WIND-
WAVE DOMINATED EARLY TUE EVENING AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. OUTER WATERS LIKELY TO SEE WIND WAVES UP TO 6 FT...WITH A
LONGER-PERIOD SWELL COMPONENT OF 2-4 FT. SEAS WILL BECOME QUITE
CHOPPY AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUARE SEAS LATE THIS WEEK.
WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
     PDT EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 030923
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
323 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WAS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. BOTH
FEATURES...THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH
WILL RESIDE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S TODAY AND MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE NEAR THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN HARNEY COUNTY. THE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN SE
OREGON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AND EVOLVE INTO A LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW TOWARDS THE EAST WHICH MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
PROBABLY WILL NOT SPREAD EAST OF THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER UNTIL
THURSDAY. A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP IN A
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT
UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY WHICH MEANS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AS WELL. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PULL WELL TO THE EAST OF OREGON ON
SUNDAY AND SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM IDAHO ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER RETURNING TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVER IDAHO TODAY. SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE NOON AND GENERALLY FROM A EASTERLY OR
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION.....JB




000
FXUS66 KPDT 030516
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1016 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION BUT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE HIGH IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING AND PRODUCING SOME HIGH BASED VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS. THESE WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THEY DISSIPATE. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF IT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY
OVER THE CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL ALSO
SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VERY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS BUILD UPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON  MAINLY IMPACTING KRDM AND KBDN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS TURNED
SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MODELS STILL
INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES LATE TODAY MOVING NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST TUESDAY. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING. EXPECT
WE WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. BY WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH
BEGINS MOVING INLAND AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THE UPPER
LOW BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION NORTH OF THE LOW. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WED AND THU. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER THESE
DAYS. 94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CLOSED LOW WILL
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
MOST UNSTABLE LOCATION/TIMES...CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WASHINGTON.
HOWEVER...EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW IN CALIFORNIA MAY KEEP
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS
SPREAD INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON...BUT OTHERS KEEP THE
MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SUGGEST IT MAY DRY OUT IN NORTHEAST
OREGON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW VARYING FROM
ARIZONA TO MONTANA. WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION
I KEPT THE SAME GENERAL TREND OF DRYING OUT THE CWA DUE TO THE LOW
MOVING AWAY AND RIDGING DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. COONFIELD



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  85  51  75 /  10  10  20  40
ALW  52  86  54  76 /   0   0  10  40
PSC  48  87  54  79 /   0   0  20  30
YKM  46  84  53  75 /   0  10  30  50
HRI  48  86  53  77 /   0   0  20  40
ELN  44  82  53  72 /   0  10  30  50
RDM  37  77  47  67 /  20  20  40  60
LGD  42  81  47  74 /   0  10  20  40
GCD  43  79  45  72 /  10  10  30  60
DLS  50  80  55  72 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91




000
FXUS66 KPDT 030516
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1016 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION BUT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE HIGH IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING AND PRODUCING SOME HIGH BASED VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS. THESE WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THEY DISSIPATE. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF IT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY
OVER THE CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL ALSO
SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VERY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS BUILD UPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON  MAINLY IMPACTING KRDM AND KBDN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS TURNED
SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MODELS STILL
INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES LATE TODAY MOVING NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST TUESDAY. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING. EXPECT
WE WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. BY WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH
BEGINS MOVING INLAND AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THE UPPER
LOW BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION NORTH OF THE LOW. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WED AND THU. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER THESE
DAYS. 94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CLOSED LOW WILL
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
MOST UNSTABLE LOCATION/TIMES...CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WASHINGTON.
HOWEVER...EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW IN CALIFORNIA MAY KEEP
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS
SPREAD INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON...BUT OTHERS KEEP THE
MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SUGGEST IT MAY DRY OUT IN NORTHEAST
OREGON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW VARYING FROM
ARIZONA TO MONTANA. WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION
I KEPT THE SAME GENERAL TREND OF DRYING OUT THE CWA DUE TO THE LOW
MOVING AWAY AND RIDGING DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. COONFIELD



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  85  51  75 /  10  10  20  40
ALW  52  86  54  76 /   0   0  10  40
PSC  48  87  54  79 /   0   0  20  30
YKM  46  84  53  75 /   0  10  30  50
HRI  48  86  53  77 /   0   0  20  40
ELN  44  82  53  72 /   0  10  30  50
RDM  37  77  47  67 /  20  20  40  60
LGD  42  81  47  74 /   0  10  20  40
GCD  43  79  45  72 /  10  10  30  60
DLS  50  80  55  72 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91




000
FXUS66 KMFR 030408
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...EVENING UPDATE. THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
IN THE REGION FOR A WHILE...AND HAVE REMOVED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REGION CONTINUES TO STABILIZE THIS EVENING.
SVEN

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC WATERS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEAK TRIGGERS AROUND...PREDOMINANTLY IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...EAST OF THE CASCADES. LATEST
HRRR REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AFFECTING THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE
EAST SIDE. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL CAPE OR SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY TO MAINTAIN
STORMS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 0.9 INCHES AT MEDFORD. THIS
MOISTURE...AND INCREASED DYNAMICS FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...WILL SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MAY PUT A DAMPER ON
INSTABILITY...SO HAVEN`T GONE ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS POINT. A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR MORE IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH SUCH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES.

WEDNESDAY FEATURES THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR SHOWERS AND
SIMILAR MOISTURE COMPARED TO TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND AGAIN A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND THUS LIMIT THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SLIGHT. IN SHORT...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN THIS IDEA FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS AT LEAST.

THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...LEAVING A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE
NORTH OF THIS LOW...STRETCHING INTO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. THIS
WILL HELP GENERATE MORE SHOWERS THERE. IN THIS SITUATION...LAKE AND
MODOC COUNTIES CAN SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL UNDER
NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...AND THIS IS REPRESENTED IN THE SREF
PLUME OUTPUT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. 3 HOUR AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A THIRD OF AN INCH FOR
LAKEVIEW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT A LARGE, BROAD, CLOSED LOW IN THE EXTENDED,
AT LEAST EARLY ON. THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES IN OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND THEN IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA SATURDAY. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING OUR AREA FROM THE
CASCADES/SISKIYOUS EAST BOTH DAYS. IT THUS SEEMS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD WITH A
GRADIENT FROM LOWER POPS IN THE WEST TO HIGHER IN THE EAST. MODELS
START TO DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE LOW FROM SUNDAY ON, BUT IN
GENERAL, IT SHOULD BE EDGING AWAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN AND
OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING. THE GOING FORECAST
HAD THIS TREND, AND I CONTINUED IT. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/00Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
FORMED ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN NO OBSERVED LIGHTNING
AS OF 00Z. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO HAVE A THUNDERSTORM IS IN
KLMT, BUT STORMS MAY ALSO DRIFT OFF MOUNTAINS AND AFFECT KMFR AND
KRBG AS WELL. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT BREEZY WINDS AND
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE COAST, LOW
LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ARE SURGING NORTH. INLAND PROGRESS WILL BE
IMPEDED BY SURFACE HEATING, BUT IT WILL SURGE INLAND TONIGHT, WITH
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING AT BEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
-BPN/WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT MON 2 MAY 2016...SOUTH WINDS WILL
 REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT ON TUESDAY.  BEGINNING WEDNESDAY,
THE THERMAL TROUGH RETURNS AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS, BUT PERIODS OF
HAZARDOUS SEAS OR GALES ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO BEYOND 10 NM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -BPN/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/TRW/TRW




000
FXUS66 KPQR 030316
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
815 PM PDT MON MAY  2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
AGAIN POSSIBLY ON TUE. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE RETURN TO INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW AND THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR TUE AND WED. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES THU AND FRI. THEN...LIKE PAST WEEKENDS...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.EVENING UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE FILLING IN ALONG THE COAST
AS FORECASTED THIS EVENING. AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS...THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE TO OUR SOUTH IN DOUGLAS COUNTY APPEARED TO BE
VERY SHALLOW AND FELL APART AS THEY MOVE INTO LANE COUNTY. STILL
THINK THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER...MAINLY IN
LANE COUNTY AND IN THE COAST RANGE...BUT ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE A
SHOWER COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE STRIKES OF LIGHTNING IN THE CASCADES.
AM CHANGING THE ISOLATED THUNDER TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS THERE
AND WE ARE SEEING SHOWERS...BUT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
MORE THAN ONE OR TWO WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. -MCCOY

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THUR).
UPPER LOW PRES OFF THE CALIF COAST IS MAINTAINING S TO SE FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUE. WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER NW CALIF WILL
LIFT N THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAVE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE CALIF INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DRIFT N/NW THIS EVENING...WITH NEWER SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST THREAT
OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CASCADES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
COAST RANGE LATER THIS EVENING. SUSPECT THIS WILL SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER THE CASCADES...THEN SEE SHOWERS POP OVER THE COAST RANGE LATER
THIS EVENING. OF INTEREST WILL BE THE THERMAL TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW
SLOWLY MOVING INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE. AS
SUCH...THIS MAY ACT MUCH LIKE A COLD FRONT...AND ENHANCE THE LIFTING
AND RESULTANT SHOWERS OVER THE COAST RANGE THIS EVENING. STILL CAN
NOT ELIMINATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR MOST AREAS AWAY THE
CASCADES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...RATHER PLEASANT EVENING FOR MOST AREAS. LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG THE S OREGON COAST. AT 2 PM...LEADING EDGE
WAS ABOUT 10 MILES OFFSHORE FROM FLORENCE. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS UP TO LINCOLN CITY THROUGH 8 PM...
WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING FARTHER NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. WHILE
ONSHORE GRADIENT IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE...SO WOULD EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT SHALLOW...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PUSH INLAND PAST THE COAST RANGE.

AS DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT SITS
FARTHER OFFSHORE DRAWS CLOSER...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUE. STILL DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. BUT
INSTABILITY NOT LOOKING SO GOOD. STILL...WILL KEEP SOME MINOR THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADES CREST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW WED AND THU WED... WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. WILL SEE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...BUT ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW LIKELY TO FORM OFF CALIF ON THU.
OVERALL...WED AND THU WILL BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS
FOR THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES.
NOT MUCH THREAT OF THUNDER DUE TO LOT OF CLOUD COVER.WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADES CREST FOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING.ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
AS HEIGHTS RISE AND THE AIR MASS WARMS.   CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS
SWITCHING ONSHORE. ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIKELY ARRIVE
BETWEEN 01Z AND 08Z TUESDAY AND BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
AND POSSIBLY BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z TUE WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS TURNS
ONSHORE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN
AWAY FROM KPDX.
&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HAVE BACK OFF WINDS WITH THE REVERSAL SO
DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE WATERS. A
WESTERLY SWELL HAS PUSHED SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT BUT SHOULD RELAX
TO 6 TO 7 FT TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD
BRING NORTHERLY WINDS BACK ON TUESDAY. STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ON TAP
DURING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. WHILE
SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 FT...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME
ESPECIALLY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS FRESH SWELL/WIND WAVE DOMINATE DUE TO PERIODS OF NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY GALES OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 030315
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
815 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION BUT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE HIGH IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING AND PRODUCING SOME HIGH BASED VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS. THESE WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THEY DISSIPATE. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF IT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY
OVER THE CASCADES AND EAST SLOPES LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL ALSO
SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES TUESDAY BUT REMAIN VERY HOT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS TURNED
SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MODELS STILL
INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES LATE TODAY MOVING NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST TUESDAY. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING. EXPECT
WE WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. BY WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH
BEGINS MOVING INLAND AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THE UPPER
LOW BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION NORTH OF THE LOW. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WED AND THU. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER THESE
DAYS. 94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CLOSED LOW WILL
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
MOST UNSTABLE LOCATION/TIMES...CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WASHINGTON.
HOWEVER...EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW IN CALIFORNIA MAY KEEP
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS
SPREAD INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON...BUT OTHERS KEEP THE
MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SUGGEST IT MAY DRY OUT IN NORTHEAST
OREGON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW VARYING FROM
ARIZONA TO MONTANA. WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION
I KEPT THE SAME GENERAL TREND OF DRYING OUT THE CWA DUE TO THE LOW
MOVING AWAY AND RIDGING DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. COONFIELD

AVIATION...0Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 21
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS BUILD UPS THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY IMPACTING KRDM AND KBDN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TOMORROW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES
TOMORROW AFTER 21Z WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  85  51  75 /  10  10  20  40
ALW  52  86  54  76 /   0   0  10  40
PSC  48  87  54  79 /   0   0  20  30
YKM  46  84  53  75 /   0  10  30  50
HRI  48  86  53  77 /   0   0  20  40
ELN  44  82  53  72 /   0  10  30  50
RDM  37  77  47  67 /  20  20  40  60
LGD  42  81  47  74 /   0  10  20  40
GCD  43  79  45  72 /  10  10  30  60
DLS  50  80  55  72 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91




000
FXUS65 KBOI 030227
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
827 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHWEST HARNEY COUNTY IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. THIS WILL LEAVE THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST IS REFLECTIVE OF THIS TREND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AS WELL. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST
10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KNOTS THROUGH
10K FEET MSL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A
STRONG TROUGH OFF THE COAST WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THIS TROUGH TO MOVE IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER
FORECAST FOR TUE THROUGH WED. HEIGHTS START FALLING THIS EVENING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.
OUR AREA TRANSITIONS FROM EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH THE NEW SLOWER MOTION OF THE TROUGH...THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE CONFINED
ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE OREGON SIDE OF THE BORDER. BY WED
AFTERNOON...THAT CHANCE EXTENDS INTO MUCH OF OUR SW IDAHO
SIDE...BUT WE LOWERED POPS JUST ENOUGH IN THE UPPER TREASURE AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS TO REMOVE THE MENTION THERE. TEMPS WERE
INCREASED...BOTH MINS AND MAXES...FOR THE SHORT TERM IN LIGHT OF
THE SLOWER MOTION AND THEREFORE ADDITIONAL WARM AIR...AND
MOISTURE...ADVECTION THAT WILL HAVE TIME TO OCCUR. THE LATEST MAV
GUIDANCE FOR BOISE WAS 86 FOR WED...AND ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS A
LITTLE HIGH...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SHOULD THE SLOWING
TREND CONTINUE. SE WINDS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WILL INHIBIT
OVERNIGHT COOLING...LEADING TO MINS WED MORNING FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S THERE. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH THE WARM MOIST
AIR...LEADING TO A CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ONE SMALL CHANGE
WAS MADE FOR THIS EVENING...THAT BEING THE ADDITION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SRN AND WRN HARNEY
COUNTY. SATELLITE HAS SHOWN CONVECTIVE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN SECTION CONTINUING TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE THE SOUTHERN SECTION DIGS SOUTH
AND DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW. CAN EXPECT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE CUT OFF LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH WILL SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON BUT MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS
THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST WILL SEE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY BUT MAY STILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/DD




000
FXUS66 KPQR 022145
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
245 PM PDT MON MAY  2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
AGAIN POSSIBLY ON TUE. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE RETURN TO INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW AND THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR TUE AND WED. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES THU AND FRI. THEN...LIKE PAST WEEKENDS...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THUR). UPPER LOW PRES OFF THE CALIF
COAST IS MAINTAINING S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TUE. WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER NW CALIF WILL LIFT N THIS EVENING.
ALREADY HAVE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NE CALIF INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT N/NW
THIS EVENING...WITH NEWER SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE OREGON CASCADES
AND COAST RANGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CASCADES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE COAST RANGE
LATER THIS EVENING. SUSPECT THIS WILL SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE
CASCADES...THEN SEE SHOWERS POP OVER THE COAST RANGE LATER THIS
EVENING. OF INTEREST WILL BE THE THERMAL TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW SLOWLY
MOVING INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST AND INTO THE COAST RANGE. AS
SUCH...THIS MAY ACT MUCH LIKE A COLD FRONT...AND ENHANCE THE LIFTING
AND RESULTANT SHOWERS OVER THE COAST RANGE THIS EVENING. STILL CAN
NOT ELIMINATE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR MOST AREAS AWAY THE
CASCADES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...RATHER PLEASANT EVENING FOR MOST AREAS. LOW CLOUDS NOW
STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG THE S OREGON COAST. AT 2 PM...LEADING EDGE
WAS ABOUT 10 MILES OFFSHORE FROM FLORENCE. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS UP TO LINCOLN CITY THROUGH 8 PM...
WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING FARTHER NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. WHILE
ONSHORE GRADIENT IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE...SO WOULD EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT SHALLOW...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PUSH INLAND PAST THE COAST RANGE.

AS DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT SITS
FARTHER OFFSHORE DRAWS CLOSER...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUE. STILL DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. BUT
INSTABILITY NOT LOOKING SO GOOD. STILL...WILL KEEP SOME MINOR THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADES CREST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW WED AND THU WED... WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. WILL SEE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...BUT ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW LIKELY TO FORM OFF CALIF ON THU.
OVERALL...WED AND THU WILL BE RATHER CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS
FOR THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES.
NOT MUCH THREAT OF THUNDER DUE TO LOT OF CLOUD COVER.WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADES CREST FOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING.ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
AS HEIGHTS RISE AND THE AIR MASS WARMS.   CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS
SWITCHING ONSHORE. ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIKELY ARRIVE
BETWEEN 01Z AND 08Z TUESDAY AND BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
AND POSSIBLY BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z TUE WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS TURNS
ONSHORE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN
AWAY FROM KPDX.
&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HAVE BACK OFF WINDS WITH THE REVERSAL SO
DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE WATERS. A
WESTERLY SWELL HAS PUSHED SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT BUT SHOULD RELAX
TO 6 TO 7 FT TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD
BRING NORTHERLY WINDS BACK ON TUESDAY. STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ON TAP
DURING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. WHILE
SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 FT...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME
ESPECIALLY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS FRESH SWELL/WIND WAVE DOMINATE DUE TO PERIODS OF NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY GALES OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 022125
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS TURNED
SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MODELS STILL
INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES LATE TODAY MOVING NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST TUESDAY. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING. EXPECT
WE WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. BY WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH
BEGINS MOVING INLAND AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THE UPPER
LOW BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION NORTH OF THE LOW. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WED AND THU. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER THESE
DAYS. 94

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A CLOSED LOW WILL
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
MOST UNSTABLE LOCATION/TIMES...CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WASHINGTON.
HOWEVER...EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW IN CALIFORNIA MAY KEEP
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS
SPREAD INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON...BUT OTHERS KEEP THE
MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SUGGEST IT MAY DRY OUT IN NORTHEAST
OREGON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW VARYING FROM
ARIZONA TO MONTANA. WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION
I KEPT THE SAME GENERAL TREND OF DRYING OUT THE CWA DUE TO THE LOW
MOVING AWAY AND RIDGING DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 21
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS BUILD UPS THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY IMPACTING KRDM AND KBDN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TOMORROW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES
TOMORROW AFTER 21Z WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  82  51  75 /  10  10  20  40
ALW  50  83  54  76 /   0  10  10  40
PSC  47  86  54  79 /   0  10  20  30
YKM  47  82  53  75 /   0  20  30  50
HRI  46  85  53  77 /   0  10  20  40
ELN  44  79  53  72 /   0  20  30  50
RDM  41  78  47  67 /  20  30  40  60
LGD  40  78  47  74 /   0  10  20  40
GCD  39  79  45  72 /  10  20  30  60
DLS  51  78  55  72 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/76/76




000
FXUS66 KMFR 022123
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
223 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC WATERS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEAK TRIGGERS AROUND...PREDOMINANTLY IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...EAST OF THE CASCADES. LATEST
HRRR REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AFFECTING THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE
EAST SIDE. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL CAPE OR SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY TO MAINTAIN
STORMS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 0.9 INCHES AT MEDFORD. THIS
MOISTURE...AND INCREASED DYNAMICS FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...WILL SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MAY PUT A DAMPER ON
INSTABILITY...SO HAVEN`T GONE ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS POINT. A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR MORE IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH SUCH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES.

WEDNESDAY FEATURES THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR SHOWERS AND
SIMILAR MOISTURE COMPARED TO TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND AGAIN A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND THUS LIMIT THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SLIGHT. IN SHORT...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN THIS IDEA FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS AT LEAST.

THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...LEAVING A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE
NORTH OF THIS LOW...STRETCHING INTO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. THIS
WILL HELP GENERATE MORE SHOWERS THERE. IN THIS SITUATION...LAKE AND
MODOC COUNTIES CAN SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL UNDER
NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...AND THIS IS REPRESENTED IN THE SREF
PLUME OUTPUT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. 3 HOUR AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A THIRD OF AN INCH FOR
LAKEVIEW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT A LARGE, BROAD, CLOSED LOW IN THE EXTENDED,
AT LEAST EARLY ON. THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES IN OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND THEN IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA SATURDAY. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING OUR AREA FROM THE
CASCADES/SISKIYOUS EAST BOTH DAYS. IT THUS SEEMS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD WITH A
GRADIENT FROM LOWER POPS IN THE WEST TO HIGHER IN THE EAST. MODELS
START TO DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE LOW FROM SUNDAY ON, BUT IN
GENERAL, IT SHOULD BE EDGING AWAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN AND
OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING. THE GOING FORECAST
HAD THIS TREND, AND I CONTINUED IT. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/18Z TAF CYCLE...CUMULUS ARE ALREADY
BUILDING OVER THE CASCADES AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO HAVE A
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN KLMT AND THAT HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN 18Z TAF,
BUT STORMS MAY ALSO DRIFT OFF MOUNTAINS AND AFFECT KMFR AND KRBG
AS WELL. TAFS HAVE BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. AT THE COAST, A
COASTAL TRAPPED WIND REVERSAL IS UNDERWAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES INLAND. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS IS NOW APPROACHING THE SOUTH
COAST AND WILL MOVE UP THE COAST LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ITS
INLAND PROGRESS WILL BE IMPEDED BY SURFACE HEATING, BUT IT WILL
SURGE INLAND TONIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT MON 2 MAY 2016...SOUTH WINDS WILL
 REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT ON TUESDAY.  BEGINNING WEDNESDAY,
THE THERMAL TROUGH RETURNS AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS, BUT PERIODS OF
HAZARDOUS SEAS OR GALES ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO BEYOND 10 NM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -BPN/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/TRW/TRW




000
FXUS65 KBOI 022046
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
246 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A
STRONG TROUGH OFF THE COAST WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THIS TROUGH TO MOVE IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER
FORECAST FOR TUE THROUGH WED. HEIGHTS START FALLING THIS EVENING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.
OUR AREA TRANSITIONS FROM EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH THE NEW SLOWER MOTION OF THE TROUGH...THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE CONFINED
ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE OREGON SIDE OF THE BORDER. BY WED
AFTERNOON...THAT CHANCE EXTENDS INTO MUCH OF OUR SW IDAHO
SIDE...BUT WE LOWERED POPS JUST ENOUGH IN THE UPPER TREASURE AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS TO REMOVE THE MENTION THERE. TEMPS WERE
INCREASED...BOTH MINS AND MAXES...FOR THE SHORT TERM IN LIGHT OF
THE SLOWER MOTION AND THEREFORE ADDITIONAL WARM AIR...AND
MOISTURE...ADVECTION THAT WILL HAVE TIME TO OCCUR. THE LATEST MAV
GUIDANCE FOR BOISE WAS 86 FOR WED...AND ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS A
LITTLE HIGH...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SHOULD THE SLOWING
TREND CONTINUE. SE WINDS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WILL INHIBIT
OVERNIGHT COOLING...LEADING TO MINS WED MORNING FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S THERE. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH THE WARM MOIST
AIR...LEADING TO A CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ONE SMALL CHANGE
WAS MADE FOR THIS EVENING...THAT BEING THE ADDITION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SRN AND WRN HARNEY
COUNTY. SATELLITE HAS SHOWN CONVECTIVE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN SECTION CONTINUING TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE THE SOUTHERN SECTION DIGS SOUTH
AND DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW. CAN EXPECT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE CUT OFF LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH WILL SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON BUT MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS
THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST WILL SEE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY BUT MAY STILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SOUTH AND WEST OF A KRDM-KREO LINE UNTIL 04Z
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS EVENING...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. SURFACE
WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA/DD
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS66 KMFR 021748
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1048 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/18Z TAF CYCLE...CUMULUS ARE ALREADY BUILDING
OVER THE CASCADES AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO HAVE A THUNDERSTORMS IS IN
KLMT AND THAT HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN 18Z TAF, BUT STORMS MAY ALSO
DRIFT OFF MOUNTAINS AND AFFECT KMFR AND KRBG AS WELL. TAFS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.  AT THE COAST, A COASTAL TRAPPED WIND REVERSAL
IS UNDERWAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. STRATUS WITH MVFR
CIGS IS NOW APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST AND WILL MOVE UP THE COAST
LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ITS INLAND PROGRESS WILL BE IMPEDED BY
SURFACE HEATING, BUT IT WILL SURGE INLAND TONIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...TODAY WILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN MODERATE TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
CASCADES AND UMQUA DIVIDE AND BASIN FEATURING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND TRIGGER ARE ONLY MODEST
TODAY BUT INSTABILITY HAS TRENDED HIGHER IN THE MODELS...AND WITH
FULL SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.

ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING STABILITY AND EXITING TRIGGER...BUT TOMORROW WILL
FEATURE MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THIS WEEK.

MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT MON 2 MAY 2016...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WESTERLY
SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL TROUGH RETURNS...AND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS SEAS OR GALES,
MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BEYOND 10 NM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
INLAND...JUST A TAD WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE A RETURN OF
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLING TO THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL REACH CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS ALSO
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS AROUND
PEAK HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXTENSIVE BUT ALL THE ABOVE WARRANTS CONTINUING THE MENTION
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

THE FORECAST IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY AS BOTH BRANCHES IN A SPLITTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVE NEARER THE COAST. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS A NOTCH OR TWO HIGHER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A SOUTH STEERING FLOW OF ABOUT 20
MPH.

THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE TROUGH FORMS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL LIMIT HEATING AND THUS LIMIT THE NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BUT...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST ON THURSDAY THIS WILL SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AND CONTINUE YET ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT MAINLY
EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST HAS BEEN IN FLUX WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. THE 00Z GFS HAD A VERY CURIOUS
SOLUTION WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW FORMING A
CLOSED LOW AS IT REACHED THE COAST. A THEME OF SOME EARLIER
SOLUTIONS WAS TO HAVE SATURDAY`S WEATHER RESEMBLE FRIDAY.
BUT...THE 06Z GFS HAS ARRIVED AND HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING AND DRYING FROM A PACIFIC RIDGE WHILE A
FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TROUGH MAY
EXTEND INTO THE FAR EAST SIDE. A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WAS MAINTAINED AND
WILL WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION OF ANY DECREASED PRECIPITATION RISK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH
RIDGING WILL SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
COOLING...SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
EAST SIDE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KPDT 021721 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1021 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY HAVE SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OREGON CASCADES LATE IN THE DAY. WARMER TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTH
FLOW FROM CENTRAL OREGON NORTH TO CENTRAL WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OREGON, ESPECIALLY THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. WEAK
WAVES WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OREGON, AND SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON. NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS AND CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN ON SUNDAY. THE SOUTH FLOW WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HEATING AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL CAUSE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VARYING CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO LINGERING ENERGY AND
MOISTURE. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE SPUN UP FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEVADA
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD MAKE FOR A TRICKY POP FORECAST FRIDAY
ONWARD...AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW COULD DETERMINE WHETHER WE GET
SEVERAL DAYS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...VERSUS SEVERAL
DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S MOUNTAINS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS WE
APPROACH THE NEAR TERM FOR THE WEEKEND...AND CONFIDENCE WILL
INCREASE ON OUR POP FORECAST. WEBER

AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS BUILD UPS THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY IMPACTING KRDM AND KBDN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TOMORROW.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  81  49  84  53 /   0  10  10  20
ALW  80  53  84  56 /   0   0  10  10
PSC  85  48  88  54 /   0   0  10  20
YKM  84  48  84  54 /   0  10  20  30
HRI  85  47  87  53 /   0   0  10  20
ELN  83  45  81  55 /   0   0  20  30
RDM  78  42  76  46 /  10  20  30  40
LGD  75  41  80  48 /   0  10  10  20
GCD  78  43  80  48 /   0  10  20  30
DLS  86  53  79  56 /   0  20  30  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94




000
FXUS66 KMFR 021611
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
911 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...TODAY WILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN MODERATE TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
CASCADES AND UMQUA DIVIDE AND BASIN FEATURING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND TRIGGER ARE ONLY MODEST
TODAY BUT INSTABILITY HAS TRENDED HIGHER IN THE MODELS...AND WITH
FULL SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.

ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING STABILITY AND EXITING TRIGGER...BUT TOMORROW WILL
FEATURE MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THERE IS  A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT DUE TO THE LOW
CHANCES HAVE LEFT MENTION OF ALL BUT SCATTERED CUMULUS DECKS OUT OF
THE CURRENT TAF. ALONG THE COAST, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN TO
THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT MON 2 MAY 2016...WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WESTERLY SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL TROUGH RETURNS...AND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS
MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS SEAS OR GALES, MAINLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BEYOND 10 NM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
INLAND...JUST A TAD WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE A RETURN OF
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLING TO THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL REACH CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS ALSO
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS AROUND
PEAK HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXTENSIVE BUT ALL THE ABOVE WARRANTS CONTINUING THE MENTION
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

THE FORECAST IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY AS BOTH BRANCHES IN A SPLITTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVE NEARER THE COAST. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS A NOTCH OR TWO HIGHER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A SOUTH STEERING FLOW OF ABOUT 20
MPH.

THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE TROUGH FORMS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL LIMIT HEATING AND THUS LIMIT THE NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BUT...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST ON THURSDAY THIS WILL SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AND CONTINUE YET ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT MAINLY
EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST HAS BEEN IN FLUX WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. THE 00Z GFS HAD A VERY CURIOUS
SOLUTION WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW FORMING A
CLOSED LOW AS IT REACHED THE COAST. A THEME OF SOME EARLIER
SOLUTIONS WAS TO HAVE SATURDAY`S WEATHER RESEMBLE FRIDAY.
BUT...THE 06Z GFS HAS ARRIVED AND HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING AND DRYING FROM A PACIFIC RIDGE WHILE A
FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TROUGH MAY
EXTEND INTO THE FAR EAST SIDE. A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WAS MAINTAINED AND
WILL WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION OF ANY DECREASED PRECIPITATION RISK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH
RIDGING WILL SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
COOLING...SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
EAST SIDE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/DW/CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 021611
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
911 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...TODAY WILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN MODERATE TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
CASCADES AND UMQUA DIVIDE AND BASIN FEATURING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND TRIGGER ARE ONLY MODEST
TODAY BUT INSTABILITY HAS TRENDED HIGHER IN THE MODELS...AND WITH
FULL SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.

ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING STABILITY AND EXITING TRIGGER...BUT TOMORROW WILL
FEATURE MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THERE IS  A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT DUE TO THE LOW
CHANCES HAVE LEFT MENTION OF ALL BUT SCATTERED CUMULUS DECKS OUT OF
THE CURRENT TAF. ALONG THE COAST, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN TO
THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT MON 2 MAY 2016...WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WESTERLY SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL TROUGH RETURNS...AND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS
MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS SEAS OR GALES, MAINLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BEYOND 10 NM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
INLAND...JUST A TAD WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE A RETURN OF
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLING TO THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL REACH CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS ALSO
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS AROUND
PEAK HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXTENSIVE BUT ALL THE ABOVE WARRANTS CONTINUING THE MENTION
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

THE FORECAST IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY AS BOTH BRANCHES IN A SPLITTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVE NEARER THE COAST. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS A NOTCH OR TWO HIGHER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A SOUTH STEERING FLOW OF ABOUT 20
MPH.

THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE TROUGH FORMS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL LIMIT HEATING AND THUS LIMIT THE NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BUT...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST ON THURSDAY THIS WILL SHIFT THE FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AND CONTINUE YET ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT MAINLY
EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST HAS BEEN IN FLUX WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. THE 00Z GFS HAD A VERY CURIOUS
SOLUTION WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW FORMING A
CLOSED LOW AS IT REACHED THE COAST. A THEME OF SOME EARLIER
SOLUTIONS WAS TO HAVE SATURDAY`S WEATHER RESEMBLE FRIDAY.
BUT...THE 06Z GFS HAS ARRIVED AND HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH WOULD BRING WARMING AND DRYING FROM A PACIFIC RIDGE WHILE A
FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TROUGH MAY
EXTEND INTO THE FAR EAST SIDE. A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WAS MAINTAINED AND
WILL WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION OF ANY DECREASED PRECIPITATION RISK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH
RIDGING WILL SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
COOLING...SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
EAST SIDE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/DW/CC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 021541
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
941 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS MORNING...APART FROM A FEW
DISSIPATING MID-CLOUDS IN NW BAKER COUNTY...AND A FEW MORE IN
EXTREME SRN HARNEY COUNTY. WE EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE
10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS MORNING...BECOMING EASTERLY 10-20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT SOUTHEASTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-6 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AND
ANOTHER 3-6 DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL AID IN THE WARMING ACROSS THE TREASURE
VALLEY WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE
LOWER 80S. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SE OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF SW
IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND WITH
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF INTO A LARGE UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER NEVADA BY FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS REACHING CENTRAL OREGON ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF THE IDAHO/OREGON BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY..THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA WILL BE IMPORTANT TO WATCH
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK COULD BRING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF ARE ALREADY HINTING THAT SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BE
UNDER A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JB




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021540
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
845 AM PDT MON MAY  2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS DOMINANT OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PAC NW. CHANGES WILL
BEGIN LATER TODAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INCHES TOWARD THE
COAST. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT MORE SOUTHERLY...BRINGING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA. THE RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE...FIRST
COOLING OFF THE COAST TODAY...THEN INLAND AREAS TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE AGAIN FOR ANOTHER WARMING
AND DRYING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGE TO GRIDS/TRENDS.
THIS MORNING IS STARTING OFF QUITE WARM FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR ALL BUT
THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. 850 MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE 1-2 DEG
C WARMER THAN SUNDAY...MEANWHILE GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S TODAY FOR MOST
INLAND VALLEYS...POSSIBLY BREAKING A COUPLE RECORDS.

DECIDED TO BUMP UP FCST HIGHS A BIT ALONG THE COAST AS IT MAY TAKE A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FOR THE SEABREEZE TO KICK IN. THE BULK OF THE
ANTICIPATED SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS JUST NOW APPROACHING CAPE
MENDOCINO IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...SO THAT WILL PROBABLY TAKE A FEW
HOURS TO ARRIVE ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST AS WELL. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR OFFSHORE FLOW IS WANING AS
SPOKANE-NORTH BEND PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE DOWN TO 4.3 MB AS OF 2 AM.
ALL THIS SHOULD ALLOW THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TO MIGRATE ONSHORE TODAY
BUT AFTER A SLIGHT DELAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT
HIGHS ALONG THE COAST TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO CROSS THE COAST RANGE...
BUT SHOULD DO SO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MARINE
AIR FURTHER INLAND THIS EVENING...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH MAY SERVE
AS A TRIGGER FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
ONE BELIEVES. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST
ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
VARYING DEGREES OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING
LITTLE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF CIN FOR THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. MOST CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST CELLS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LANE/DOUGLAS CASCADES SOMETIME AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE COAST
RANGE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MARINE PUSH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAIRLY HIGH BASES INITIALLY...WITH AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG OF
DCAPE BUT FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME OF THE STRONGER
CELLS TO PRODUCE STRONGER-THAN-USUAL OUTFLOW... PERHAPS GUSTS UP TO
30-40 MPH FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS. STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE
S-SE...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME OF THE CELLS DEVELOPING IN THE CASCADES
TO DRIFT OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING. A SLOWLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO JUST
ABOUT ANYONE IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
SEEMED TO BACK OFF ON THIS A BIT.

06Z NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES RAPIDLY ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...SUGGESTING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN
INCREASINGLY ONSHORE TUESDAY AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD
BRING A 10-15 DEGREE COOL DOWN TO INLAND AREAS TUESDAY THEN ANOTHER
5-10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WED. THE REMNANTS OF
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PLENTY OF
SHOWERS TUE/WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL PROBABLY LIMIT
THUNDER TO NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND AREAS EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY ADVANCING
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CUTTING OFF AS AN UPPER RIDGE NOSES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...BUT TAPER OFF FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES HOWEVER...GIVEN BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF HOW FAR SOUTH
THE UPPER LOW MOVES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 70S INLAND AS HEIGHTS RISE
IN THE WARMING AIR MASS.  CULLEN

&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL INLAND TAF SITES
THROUGH TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW GIVES WAY TO INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW LATE MONDAY. ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIKELY ARRIVE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY AND BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT 21Z MON THRU 09Z TUE WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE
FLOW DECREASES OVER THE REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN AWAY FROM KPDX.

&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERIOD OF GUSTY 20 KT
SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING PRIMARILY BETWEEN 10 AND 30 MILES
OFFSHORE. A WESTERLY SWELL SHOULD PUSH SEAS TEMPORARILY INTO THE 7
TO 8 FT RANGE TODAY...BUT SEAS LOOK TO RELAX TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD
BRING NORTHERLY WINDS BACK ON TUESDAY. PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30
KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ON TAP DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. WHILE SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10
FT...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME ESPECIALLY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS FRESH SWELL/WIND WAVE DOMINATE DUE
TO PERIODS OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY GALES OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND.
BOWEN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 021540
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
845 AM PDT MON MAY  2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS DOMINANT OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE PAC NW. CHANGES WILL
BEGIN LATER TODAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INCHES TOWARD THE
COAST. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT MORE SOUTHERLY...BRINGING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA. THE RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE...FIRST
COOLING OFF THE COAST TODAY...THEN INLAND AREAS TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE AGAIN FOR ANOTHER WARMING
AND DRYING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGE TO GRIDS/TRENDS.
THIS MORNING IS STARTING OFF QUITE WARM FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR ALL BUT
THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. 850 MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE 1-2 DEG
C WARMER THAN SUNDAY...MEANWHILE GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS
MORNING AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S TODAY FOR MOST
INLAND VALLEYS...POSSIBLY BREAKING A COUPLE RECORDS.

DECIDED TO BUMP UP FCST HIGHS A BIT ALONG THE COAST AS IT MAY TAKE A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FOR THE SEABREEZE TO KICK IN. THE BULK OF THE
ANTICIPATED SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS JUST NOW APPROACHING CAPE
MENDOCINO IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...SO THAT WILL PROBABLY TAKE A FEW
HOURS TO ARRIVE ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST AS WELL. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR OFFSHORE FLOW IS WANING AS
SPOKANE-NORTH BEND PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE DOWN TO 4.3 MB AS OF 2 AM.
ALL THIS SHOULD ALLOW THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TO MIGRATE ONSHORE TODAY
BUT AFTER A SLIGHT DELAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT
HIGHS ALONG THE COAST TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO CROSS THE COAST RANGE...
BUT SHOULD DO SO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MARINE
AIR FURTHER INLAND THIS EVENING...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH MAY SERVE
AS A TRIGGER FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
ONE BELIEVES. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST
ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
VARYING DEGREES OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING
LITTLE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF CIN FOR THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. MOST CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST CELLS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LANE/DOUGLAS CASCADES SOMETIME AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE COAST
RANGE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MARINE PUSH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAIRLY HIGH BASES INITIALLY...WITH AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG OF
DCAPE BUT FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME OF THE STRONGER
CELLS TO PRODUCE STRONGER-THAN-USUAL OUTFLOW... PERHAPS GUSTS UP TO
30-40 MPH FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS. STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE
S-SE...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME OF THE CELLS DEVELOPING IN THE CASCADES
TO DRIFT OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS EVENING. A SLOWLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO JUST
ABOUT ANYONE IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
SEEMED TO BACK OFF ON THIS A BIT.

06Z NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES RAPIDLY ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...SUGGESTING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TURN
INCREASINGLY ONSHORE TUESDAY AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD
BRING A 10-15 DEGREE COOL DOWN TO INLAND AREAS TUESDAY THEN ANOTHER
5-10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WED. THE REMNANTS OF
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PLENTY OF
SHOWERS TUE/WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL PROBABLY LIMIT
THUNDER TO NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND AREAS EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY ADVANCING
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CUTTING OFF AS AN UPPER RIDGE NOSES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...BUT TAPER OFF FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER INTO
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES HOWEVER...GIVEN BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF HOW FAR SOUTH
THE UPPER LOW MOVES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 70S INLAND AS HEIGHTS RISE
IN THE WARMING AIR MASS.  CULLEN

&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL INLAND TAF SITES
THROUGH TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW GIVES WAY TO INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW LATE MONDAY. ALONG THE COAST...MARINE STRATUS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIKELY ARRIVE BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY AND BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT 21Z MON THRU 09Z TUE WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE
FLOW DECREASES OVER THE REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN AWAY FROM KPDX.

&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERIOD OF GUSTY 20 KT
SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING PRIMARILY BETWEEN 10 AND 30 MILES
OFFSHORE. A WESTERLY SWELL SHOULD PUSH SEAS TEMPORARILY INTO THE 7
TO 8 FT RANGE TODAY...BUT SEAS LOOK TO RELAX TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD
BRING NORTHERLY WINDS BACK ON TUESDAY. PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30
KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ON TAP DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. WHILE SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10
FT...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME ESPECIALLY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS FRESH SWELL/WIND WAVE DOMINATE DUE
TO PERIODS OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY GALES OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND.
BOWEN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




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