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000
FXUS66 KMFR 050549
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1049 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...JUST MADE A VERY QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO CURRENT TRENDS. HAD TO PULL ISOLATED
THUNDER BACK ONTO THE WEST SIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME CONVECTION
THAT JUST POPPED UP OVER MT. ASHLAND. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME DEFORMATION STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
DON`T THINK WE`LL SEE MUCH MORE THAN THIS, BUT OBVIOUSLY WE`LL
HAVE TO KEEP ANY EYE ON IT TONIGHT AS THINGS ARE SOMEWHAT
VOLATILE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS DEFINITELY INCREASING EAST OF
THE CASCADES, PRETTY MUCH EXACTLY WHERE THE MODELS HAD IT, SO THE
REMAINING RED FLAG WARNINGS LOOK ON TRACK. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/06Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, BUT THEY ARE
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES, WHICH WAS EXPECTED. GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS, INCLUDING AT KLMT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
LEAST. STRATUS HAS YET TO MOVE INTO NORTH BEND, BUT ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL EVENTUALLY. SMOKE HAS DISSIPATED IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY, INCLUDING KMFR, BUT STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SUGGEST
IT MAY COME BACK OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.
IT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AS DIURNAL WINDS DRIVE IT
IN. THIS DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FIRE, OF COURSE, BUT
FORECAST WINDS SUPPORT A RETURN OF SMOKE. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE IMMEDIATE FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST.
AN EVENING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY. DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, A VERY STRONG COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTH OF THE SCOTT VALLEY
EXTENDING TO ROUTE 3 BETWEEN FT JONES AND YREKA. THIS COMPLEX HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR...LIKELY WITH SOME AID FROM THE
END OF DAY-TIME HEATING. BUT, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND 5 AM IN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SIDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH (WITH THE LIKELY FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT) IS SEEN BY THE WEAK RADAR RETURNS IN THE
CURRENT SCAN OVER FAR EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.

THE AIR MASS OVER OUR AREA WILL STABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND A MORE MARITIME INFLUENCED AIR MASS
WITH WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR ONE
DAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST ON
THURSDAY AND SEND INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE READINGS EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW EXACTLY THE SAME TRACK AS
TONIGHT`S TROUGH BUT THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM MODELS AGREE ON
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE MT SHASTA REGION ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BUILD TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. A GALE/HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIME
FRAME FOR AN AREA BEYOND 10 NM AND MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL EASE AT THAT TIME. SPILDE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY
NEAR SUMMER RIM.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL RIDGES WITH A
CHETCO EFFECT BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE BROOKINGS AREA.
LATE THURSDAY, EXPECT AN UPPER LOW TO SHIFT INTO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALFIORNIA THEN MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INLAND EXPECT SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIRTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN SOUTHERN OREGON.

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WEST AT LEAST THROUGH THUS WEEKEND AS DAYTIME NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS. OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY MAY BRING LESS SMOKE TO
THE CASCADES BUT INCREASED SMOKE TO THE CURRY COAST.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVES DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THEN ON
SUNDAY WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH AND A RIDGE
STRENGTHENING INLAND, EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
THE WESTERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN OREGON EAST INTO THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
ON SUNDAY AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MAY CUTOFF AND BRING A CUTOFF
LOW TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ON WHETHER A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WHERE
IT MAY BE POSITIONED. /CC

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. WHILE THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SWATH OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
OREGON, THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR PRECIPITATION FIELDS ARE
DEPICTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER AREA OVER LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE RESULT OF A CONVERGENCE OF SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY, THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY, AND SOME JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THESE FACTORS,
WHILE EXISTING ONLY A SHORT TIME OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY, MAY LAST WELL
INTO THE NIGHT FARTHER EAST, AND THEREFORE NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF FIREFIGHTING
RESOURCES, AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ABOVE AREAS. SOME
STORMS MAY BEGIN DRY, BUT SHOULD TREND WETTER AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. UNTIL THEN, GUSTY WINDS ARE OF PRIMARY CONCERN. OVERALL,
LIGHTING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS STARTS, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE IGNITION RATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND NO
OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN,
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE PERIODS OF MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS RIDGELINES AT
VARYING TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO BE AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 050549
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1049 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...JUST MADE A VERY QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO CURRENT TRENDS. HAD TO PULL ISOLATED
THUNDER BACK ONTO THE WEST SIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME CONVECTION
THAT JUST POPPED UP OVER MT. ASHLAND. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME DEFORMATION STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
DON`T THINK WE`LL SEE MUCH MORE THAN THIS, BUT OBVIOUSLY WE`LL
HAVE TO KEEP ANY EYE ON IT TONIGHT AS THINGS ARE SOMEWHAT
VOLATILE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS DEFINITELY INCREASING EAST OF
THE CASCADES, PRETTY MUCH EXACTLY WHERE THE MODELS HAD IT, SO THE
REMAINING RED FLAG WARNINGS LOOK ON TRACK. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/06Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, BUT THEY ARE
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES, WHICH WAS EXPECTED. GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS, INCLUDING AT KLMT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
LEAST. STRATUS HAS YET TO MOVE INTO NORTH BEND, BUT ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL EVENTUALLY. SMOKE HAS DISSIPATED IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY, INCLUDING KMFR, BUT STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SUGGEST
IT MAY COME BACK OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.
IT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AS DIURNAL WINDS DRIVE IT
IN. THIS DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FIRE, OF COURSE, BUT
FORECAST WINDS SUPPORT A RETURN OF SMOKE. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE IMMEDIATE FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST.
AN EVENING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY. DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, A VERY STRONG COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTH OF THE SCOTT VALLEY
EXTENDING TO ROUTE 3 BETWEEN FT JONES AND YREKA. THIS COMPLEX HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR...LIKELY WITH SOME AID FROM THE
END OF DAY-TIME HEATING. BUT, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND 5 AM IN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SIDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH (WITH THE LIKELY FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT) IS SEEN BY THE WEAK RADAR RETURNS IN THE
CURRENT SCAN OVER FAR EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.

THE AIR MASS OVER OUR AREA WILL STABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND A MORE MARITIME INFLUENCED AIR MASS
WITH WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR ONE
DAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST ON
THURSDAY AND SEND INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE READINGS EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW EXACTLY THE SAME TRACK AS
TONIGHT`S TROUGH BUT THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM MODELS AGREE ON
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE MT SHASTA REGION ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BUILD TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. A GALE/HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIME
FRAME FOR AN AREA BEYOND 10 NM AND MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL EASE AT THAT TIME. SPILDE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY
NEAR SUMMER RIM.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL RIDGES WITH A
CHETCO EFFECT BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE BROOKINGS AREA.
LATE THURSDAY, EXPECT AN UPPER LOW TO SHIFT INTO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALFIORNIA THEN MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INLAND EXPECT SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIRTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN SOUTHERN OREGON.

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WEST AT LEAST THROUGH THUS WEEKEND AS DAYTIME NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS. OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY MAY BRING LESS SMOKE TO
THE CASCADES BUT INCREASED SMOKE TO THE CURRY COAST.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVES DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THEN ON
SUNDAY WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH AND A RIDGE
STRENGTHENING INLAND, EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
THE WESTERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN OREGON EAST INTO THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
ON SUNDAY AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MAY CUTOFF AND BRING A CUTOFF
LOW TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ON WHETHER A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WHERE
IT MAY BE POSITIONED. /CC

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. WHILE THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SWATH OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
OREGON, THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR PRECIPITATION FIELDS ARE
DEPICTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER AREA OVER LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE RESULT OF A CONVERGENCE OF SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY, THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY, AND SOME JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THESE FACTORS,
WHILE EXISTING ONLY A SHORT TIME OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY, MAY LAST WELL
INTO THE NIGHT FARTHER EAST, AND THEREFORE NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF FIREFIGHTING
RESOURCES, AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ABOVE AREAS. SOME
STORMS MAY BEGIN DRY, BUT SHOULD TREND WETTER AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. UNTIL THEN, GUSTY WINDS ARE OF PRIMARY CONCERN. OVERALL,
LIGHTING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS STARTS, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE IGNITION RATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND NO
OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN,
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE PERIODS OF MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS RIDGELINES AT
VARYING TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO BE AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 050549
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1049 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...JUST MADE A VERY QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO CURRENT TRENDS. HAD TO PULL ISOLATED
THUNDER BACK ONTO THE WEST SIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME CONVECTION
THAT JUST POPPED UP OVER MT. ASHLAND. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME DEFORMATION STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
DON`T THINK WE`LL SEE MUCH MORE THAN THIS, BUT OBVIOUSLY WE`LL
HAVE TO KEEP ANY EYE ON IT TONIGHT AS THINGS ARE SOMEWHAT
VOLATILE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS DEFINITELY INCREASING EAST OF
THE CASCADES, PRETTY MUCH EXACTLY WHERE THE MODELS HAD IT, SO THE
REMAINING RED FLAG WARNINGS LOOK ON TRACK. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/06Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, BUT THEY ARE
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES, WHICH WAS EXPECTED. GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS, INCLUDING AT KLMT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
LEAST. STRATUS HAS YET TO MOVE INTO NORTH BEND, BUT ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL EVENTUALLY. SMOKE HAS DISSIPATED IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY, INCLUDING KMFR, BUT STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SUGGEST
IT MAY COME BACK OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.
IT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AS DIURNAL WINDS DRIVE IT
IN. THIS DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FIRE, OF COURSE, BUT
FORECAST WINDS SUPPORT A RETURN OF SMOKE. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE IMMEDIATE FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST.
AN EVENING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY. DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, A VERY STRONG COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTH OF THE SCOTT VALLEY
EXTENDING TO ROUTE 3 BETWEEN FT JONES AND YREKA. THIS COMPLEX HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR...LIKELY WITH SOME AID FROM THE
END OF DAY-TIME HEATING. BUT, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND 5 AM IN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SIDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH (WITH THE LIKELY FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT) IS SEEN BY THE WEAK RADAR RETURNS IN THE
CURRENT SCAN OVER FAR EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.

THE AIR MASS OVER OUR AREA WILL STABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND A MORE MARITIME INFLUENCED AIR MASS
WITH WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR ONE
DAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST ON
THURSDAY AND SEND INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE READINGS EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW EXACTLY THE SAME TRACK AS
TONIGHT`S TROUGH BUT THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM MODELS AGREE ON
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE MT SHASTA REGION ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BUILD TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. A GALE/HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIME
FRAME FOR AN AREA BEYOND 10 NM AND MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL EASE AT THAT TIME. SPILDE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY
NEAR SUMMER RIM.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL RIDGES WITH A
CHETCO EFFECT BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE BROOKINGS AREA.
LATE THURSDAY, EXPECT AN UPPER LOW TO SHIFT INTO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALFIORNIA THEN MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INLAND EXPECT SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIRTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN SOUTHERN OREGON.

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WEST AT LEAST THROUGH THUS WEEKEND AS DAYTIME NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS. OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY MAY BRING LESS SMOKE TO
THE CASCADES BUT INCREASED SMOKE TO THE CURRY COAST.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVES DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THEN ON
SUNDAY WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH AND A RIDGE
STRENGTHENING INLAND, EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
THE WESTERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN OREGON EAST INTO THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
ON SUNDAY AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MAY CUTOFF AND BRING A CUTOFF
LOW TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ON WHETHER A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WHERE
IT MAY BE POSITIONED. /CC

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. WHILE THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SWATH OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
OREGON, THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR PRECIPITATION FIELDS ARE
DEPICTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER AREA OVER LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE RESULT OF A CONVERGENCE OF SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY, THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY, AND SOME JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THESE FACTORS,
WHILE EXISTING ONLY A SHORT TIME OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY, MAY LAST WELL
INTO THE NIGHT FARTHER EAST, AND THEREFORE NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF FIREFIGHTING
RESOURCES, AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ABOVE AREAS. SOME
STORMS MAY BEGIN DRY, BUT SHOULD TREND WETTER AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. UNTIL THEN, GUSTY WINDS ARE OF PRIMARY CONCERN. OVERALL,
LIGHTING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS STARTS, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE IGNITION RATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND NO
OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN,
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE PERIODS OF MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS RIDGELINES AT
VARYING TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO BE AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPDT 050526
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1022 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN OREGON.
STILL HAVE AN AREA OF CUMULUS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS AND NOW SEEING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR INDICATES
THE UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY STRONG AND MAY HAVE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO
IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL END BY LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LARGE
UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN BC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
TOMORROW WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
WESTERLY WINDS TO BE INCREASING AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
WITH 15-25 MPH BY AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS. 94

.AVIATION...WEST WINDS 5-15KT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10-25KT
WEDNESDAY. SCT CLOUDS 100-200.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. COMBINED THEY
ARE PRODUCING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
PIECE OF ENERGY IS BREAKING AWAY FROM THE COASTAL LOW AND WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ITS PATH CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ADD A LITTLE KICK TO THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EASTERN DESCHUTES COUNTY TO WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING SOME COOLER DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 5 TO 10 DEGREES. ON THURSDAY THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
THE COOL DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. BY FRIDAY THE FLAT RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION BUT THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN MOVING INLAND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COULD REACH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
AN UPPER LOW HEADING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST AND A WEAK WAVE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON SOUTH OF MADRAS AND
IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THAT WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND ENDING UP OFF THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ON MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ASHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A TROUGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW
WILL CARRY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND ALONG WITH INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GIVE CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE CASCADES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING. SUNDAY
WILL SEE GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND INTO IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  59  84  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  65  85  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  60  88  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  57  81  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  61  86  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  60  80  55  83 /   0   0  10   0
RDM  48  80  41  82 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  50  80  49  80 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  54  84  47  85 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  62  81  59  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94




000
FXUS66 KPDT 050526
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1022 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN OREGON.
STILL HAVE AN AREA OF CUMULUS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS AND NOW SEEING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR INDICATES
THE UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY STRONG AND MAY HAVE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO
IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL END BY LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LARGE
UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN BC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
TOMORROW WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
WESTERLY WINDS TO BE INCREASING AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
WITH 15-25 MPH BY AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS. 94

.AVIATION...WEST WINDS 5-15KT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10-25KT
WEDNESDAY. SCT CLOUDS 100-200.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. COMBINED THEY
ARE PRODUCING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
PIECE OF ENERGY IS BREAKING AWAY FROM THE COASTAL LOW AND WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ITS PATH CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ADD A LITTLE KICK TO THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EASTERN DESCHUTES COUNTY TO WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING SOME COOLER DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 5 TO 10 DEGREES. ON THURSDAY THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
THE COOL DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. BY FRIDAY THE FLAT RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION BUT THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN MOVING INLAND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COULD REACH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
AN UPPER LOW HEADING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST AND A WEAK WAVE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON SOUTH OF MADRAS AND
IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THAT WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND ENDING UP OFF THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ON MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ASHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A TROUGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW
WILL CARRY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND ALONG WITH INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GIVE CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE CASCADES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING. SUNDAY
WILL SEE GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND INTO IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  59  84  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  65  85  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  60  88  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  57  81  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  61  86  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  60  80  55  83 /   0   0  10   0
RDM  48  80  41  82 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  50  80  49  80 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  54  84  47  85 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  62  81  59  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94



000
FXUS66 KMFR 050415
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE IMMEDIATE FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST.
AN EVENING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY. DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, A VERY STRONG COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTH OF THE SCOTT VALLEY
EXTENDING TO ROUTE 3 BETWEEN FT JONES AND YREKA. THIS COMPLEX HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR...LIKELY WITH SOME AID FROM THE
END OF DAY-TIME HEATING. BUT, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND 5 AM IN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SIDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH (WITH THE LIKELY FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT) IS SEEN BY THE WEAK RADAR RETURNS IN THE
CURRENT SCAN OVER FAR EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.

THE AIR MASS OVER OUR AREA WILL STABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND A MORE MARITIME INFLUENCED AIR MASS
WITH WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR ONE
DAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST ON
THURSDAY AND SEND INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE READINGS EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW EXACTLY THE SAME TRACK AS
TONIGHT`S TROUGH BUT THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM MODELS AGREE ON
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE MT SHASTA REGION ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR
CIGS ARE IMPACTING THE COAST FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTH TO BROOKINGS. VFR
WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST, BUT
EXPECT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AFTER 03Z, INCLUDING AT
KOTH. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KRBG, BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BRING MVFR
VISIBILITY TO KMFR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VIS MAY LOWER TEMPORARILY
TO IFR THIS EVENING. IN NORTHERN CALIFOTRNIA AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
VFR. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. A GALE/HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIME
FRAME FOR AN AREA BEYOND 10 NM AND MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL EASE AT THAT TIME. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY
NEAR SUMMER RIM.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL RIDGES WITH A
CHETCO EFFECT BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE BROOKINGS AREA.
LATE THURSDAY, EXPECT AN UPPER LOW TO SHIFT INTO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALFIORNIA THEN MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INLAND EXPECT SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIRTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN SOUTHERN OREGON.

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WEST AT LEAST THROUGH THUS WEEKEND AS DAYTIME NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS. OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY MAY BRING LESS SMOKE TO
THE CASCADES BUT INCREASED SMOKE TO THE CURRY COAST.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVES DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THEN ON
SUNDAY WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH AND A RIDGE
STRENGTHENING INLAND, EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
THE WESTERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN OREGON EAST INTO THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
ON SUNDAY AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MAY CUTOFF AND BRING A CUTOFF
LOW TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ON WHETHER A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WHERE
IT MAY BE POSITIONED. /CC

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. WHILE THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SWATH OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
OREGON, THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR PRECIPITATION FIELDS ARE
DEPICTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER AREA OVER LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE RESULT OF A CONVERGENCE OF SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY, THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY, AND SOME JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THESE FACTORS,
WHILE EXISTING ONLY A SHORT TIME OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY, MAY LAST WELL
INTO THE NIGHT FARTHER EAST, AND THEREFORE NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF FIREFIGHTING
RESOURCES, AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ABOVE AREAS. SOME
STORMS MAY BEGIN DRY, BUT SHOULD TREND WETTER AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. UNTIL THEN, GUSTY WINDS ARE OF PRIMARY CONCERN. OVERALL,
LIGHTING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS STARTS, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE IGNITION RATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND NO
OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN,
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE PERIODS OF MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS RIDGELINES AT
VARYING TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO BE AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/TRW/MAS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 050415
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE IMMEDIATE FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST.
AN EVENING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY. DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, A VERY STRONG COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTH OF THE SCOTT VALLEY
EXTENDING TO ROUTE 3 BETWEEN FT JONES AND YREKA. THIS COMPLEX HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR...LIKELY WITH SOME AID FROM THE
END OF DAY-TIME HEATING. BUT, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND 5 AM IN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SIDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH (WITH THE LIKELY FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT) IS SEEN BY THE WEAK RADAR RETURNS IN THE
CURRENT SCAN OVER FAR EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.

THE AIR MASS OVER OUR AREA WILL STABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND A MORE MARITIME INFLUENCED AIR MASS
WITH WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR ONE
DAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST ON
THURSDAY AND SEND INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE READINGS EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW EXACTLY THE SAME TRACK AS
TONIGHT`S TROUGH BUT THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM MODELS AGREE ON
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE MT SHASTA REGION ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR
CIGS ARE IMPACTING THE COAST FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTH TO BROOKINGS. VFR
WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST, BUT
EXPECT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AFTER 03Z, INCLUDING AT
KOTH. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KRBG, BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BRING MVFR
VISIBILITY TO KMFR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VIS MAY LOWER TEMPORARILY
TO IFR THIS EVENING. IN NORTHERN CALIFOTRNIA AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
VFR. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. A GALE/HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIME
FRAME FOR AN AREA BEYOND 10 NM AND MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL EASE AT THAT TIME. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY
NEAR SUMMER RIM.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL RIDGES WITH A
CHETCO EFFECT BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE BROOKINGS AREA.
LATE THURSDAY, EXPECT AN UPPER LOW TO SHIFT INTO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALFIORNIA THEN MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INLAND EXPECT SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIRTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN SOUTHERN OREGON.

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WEST AT LEAST THROUGH THUS WEEKEND AS DAYTIME NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS. OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY MAY BRING LESS SMOKE TO
THE CASCADES BUT INCREASED SMOKE TO THE CURRY COAST.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVES DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THEN ON
SUNDAY WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH AND A RIDGE
STRENGTHENING INLAND, EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
THE WESTERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN OREGON EAST INTO THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
ON SUNDAY AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MAY CUTOFF AND BRING A CUTOFF
LOW TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ON WHETHER A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WHERE
IT MAY BE POSITIONED. /CC

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. WHILE THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SWATH OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
OREGON, THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR PRECIPITATION FIELDS ARE
DEPICTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER AREA OVER LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE RESULT OF A CONVERGENCE OF SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY, THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY, AND SOME JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THESE FACTORS,
WHILE EXISTING ONLY A SHORT TIME OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY, MAY LAST WELL
INTO THE NIGHT FARTHER EAST, AND THEREFORE NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF FIREFIGHTING
RESOURCES, AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ABOVE AREAS. SOME
STORMS MAY BEGIN DRY, BUT SHOULD TREND WETTER AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. UNTIL THEN, GUSTY WINDS ARE OF PRIMARY CONCERN. OVERALL,
LIGHTING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS STARTS, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE IGNITION RATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND NO
OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN,
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE PERIODS OF MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS RIDGELINES AT
VARYING TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO BE AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/TRW/MAS



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 050408
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 PM PDT TUE AUG  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN B.C. EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SOUTH OVER THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS TO
THE AREA...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE TO AT LEAST THE NORTH COAST AREAS AT TIMES. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A BIT OF A WARM UP.
EXPECT A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE
CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.UPDATE...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ALTHOUGH
HAVE FUSSED WITH SKY COVER A FAIR AMOUNT THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW.
OVERALL AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM IS APPEARING A BIT DRIER THAN
MODEL RH AND CLOUD FIELDS WOULD IMPLY. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WHERE SOME MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE BROKEN
STRATUS FIELD JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIER CONDITIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 900
MB. THAT OFFSHORE FIELD IS MOVING CLOSER TO SHORE BUT IS LARGELY
THINNING AS IT REACHES THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OREGON/SW WASHINGTON
COAST AND MORE SO TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. HAVE DELAYED THE
TIMING OF SKIES CLOUDING UP TONIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND WILL
SHOW SOME THINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY...ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND THUS LIMIT
THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE COASTAL STRATUS. BUT...THOSE SAME WEAK
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHER MARINE DEW POINT AIR IN THE AREA AND ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONALLY COOLED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AND NORTH CASCADE FOOTHILLS AROUND DAYBREAK. HAVE THINNED OUT
THE INLAND CLOUD DECK AS A RESULT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AMPLE CLOUD COVER FOR BROAD LIFT TO
BRING POTENTIAL DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTH COAST BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL STRETCH. LEFT THE EXTENT OF THE DRIZZLE ALONE
AS THE POTENTIAL REMAINS AND WE ONLY HAD IT LISTED AS SLIGHT CHANCE
ANYWAY. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED IN B.C. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON.
THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND ONTO
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ON THE NORTH
COAST AND IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES UNDER THE CYCLONIC
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS SOME...AND
REINFORCING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS PAINT SOME QPF NEAR THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN SOME INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT LINGERS INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BROKEN CIGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING THE MID OR UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH...80 TO 85 NEAR
EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME LINGERING ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY...AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND...BUT MAY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTH.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH THE WEAK UPPER
RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW STARTS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY.
INLAND MAY NOT SEE ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...BUT SOME MARINE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN THICKENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE
COASTLINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
TOLLESON

LONG TERM...TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF ALASKA WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS STILL ARE STILL TRYING TO WORK OUT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN. GFS TODAY IS BRINGING TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH BRINGS THE
RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. THIS PROMOTES A BETTER CHANCE THAT ALL OF OUR
AREA WILL SEE SOME RAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA FOR NOW. DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS ANY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING A
STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
MOST INTERIOR TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. THE MAIN EXCEPTION
TO THIS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE AT THE PORTLAND TAF
SITES...PARTICULARLY KPDX AND KTTD WHERE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE NOTABLY STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO MVFR STRATUS
SHOULD IMPACT THESE TERMINALS BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 12Z AND 19Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KAST
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE CONDITIONS
WILL TEMPORARILY DROP INTO IFR AT KONP PERIODICALLY THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL BRING A STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z WEDNESDAY...AND PERSIST
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z TO 20Z WEDNESDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MOST AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS. AN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
SUCH AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS...BUT IT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 050408
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 PM PDT TUE AUG  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN B.C. EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SOUTH OVER THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS TO
THE AREA...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE TO AT LEAST THE NORTH COAST AREAS AT TIMES. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A BIT OF A WARM UP.
EXPECT A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE
CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.UPDATE...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ALTHOUGH
HAVE FUSSED WITH SKY COVER A FAIR AMOUNT THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW.
OVERALL AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM IS APPEARING A BIT DRIER THAN
MODEL RH AND CLOUD FIELDS WOULD IMPLY. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WHERE SOME MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE BROKEN
STRATUS FIELD JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIER CONDITIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 900
MB. THAT OFFSHORE FIELD IS MOVING CLOSER TO SHORE BUT IS LARGELY
THINNING AS IT REACHES THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OREGON/SW WASHINGTON
COAST AND MORE SO TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. HAVE DELAYED THE
TIMING OF SKIES CLOUDING UP TONIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND WILL
SHOW SOME THINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY...ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND THUS LIMIT
THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE COASTAL STRATUS. BUT...THOSE SAME WEAK
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHER MARINE DEW POINT AIR IN THE AREA AND ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONALLY COOLED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AND NORTH CASCADE FOOTHILLS AROUND DAYBREAK. HAVE THINNED OUT
THE INLAND CLOUD DECK AS A RESULT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AMPLE CLOUD COVER FOR BROAD LIFT TO
BRING POTENTIAL DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTH COAST BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL STRETCH. LEFT THE EXTENT OF THE DRIZZLE ALONE
AS THE POTENTIAL REMAINS AND WE ONLY HAD IT LISTED AS SLIGHT CHANCE
ANYWAY. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED IN B.C. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON.
THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND ONTO
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ON THE NORTH
COAST AND IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES UNDER THE CYCLONIC
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS SOME...AND
REINFORCING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS PAINT SOME QPF NEAR THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN SOME INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT LINGERS INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BROKEN CIGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING THE MID OR UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH...80 TO 85 NEAR
EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME LINGERING ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY...AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND...BUT MAY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTH.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH THE WEAK UPPER
RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW STARTS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY.
INLAND MAY NOT SEE ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...BUT SOME MARINE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN THICKENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE
COASTLINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
TOLLESON

LONG TERM...TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF ALASKA WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS STILL ARE STILL TRYING TO WORK OUT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN. GFS TODAY IS BRINGING TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH BRINGS THE
RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. THIS PROMOTES A BETTER CHANCE THAT ALL OF OUR
AREA WILL SEE SOME RAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA FOR NOW. DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS ANY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING A
STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
MOST INTERIOR TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. THE MAIN EXCEPTION
TO THIS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE AT THE PORTLAND TAF
SITES...PARTICULARLY KPDX AND KTTD WHERE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE NOTABLY STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO MVFR STRATUS
SHOULD IMPACT THESE TERMINALS BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 12Z AND 19Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KAST
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE CONDITIONS
WILL TEMPORARILY DROP INTO IFR AT KONP PERIODICALLY THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL BRING A STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z WEDNESDAY...AND PERSIST
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z TO 20Z WEDNESDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MOST AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS. AN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
SUCH AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS...BUT IT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 050408
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 PM PDT TUE AUG  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN B.C. EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SOUTH OVER THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS TO
THE AREA...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE TO AT LEAST THE NORTH COAST AREAS AT TIMES. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A BIT OF A WARM UP.
EXPECT A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE
CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.UPDATE...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ALTHOUGH
HAVE FUSSED WITH SKY COVER A FAIR AMOUNT THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW.
OVERALL AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM IS APPEARING A BIT DRIER THAN
MODEL RH AND CLOUD FIELDS WOULD IMPLY. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WHERE SOME MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE BROKEN
STRATUS FIELD JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIER CONDITIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 900
MB. THAT OFFSHORE FIELD IS MOVING CLOSER TO SHORE BUT IS LARGELY
THINNING AS IT REACHES THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OREGON/SW WASHINGTON
COAST AND MORE SO TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. HAVE DELAYED THE
TIMING OF SKIES CLOUDING UP TONIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND WILL
SHOW SOME THINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY...ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND THUS LIMIT
THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE COASTAL STRATUS. BUT...THOSE SAME WEAK
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHER MARINE DEW POINT AIR IN THE AREA AND ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONALLY COOLED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AND NORTH CASCADE FOOTHILLS AROUND DAYBREAK. HAVE THINNED OUT
THE INLAND CLOUD DECK AS A RESULT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AMPLE CLOUD COVER FOR BROAD LIFT TO
BRING POTENTIAL DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTH COAST BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL STRETCH. LEFT THE EXTENT OF THE DRIZZLE ALONE
AS THE POTENTIAL REMAINS AND WE ONLY HAD IT LISTED AS SLIGHT CHANCE
ANYWAY. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED IN B.C. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON.
THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND ONTO
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ON THE NORTH
COAST AND IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES UNDER THE CYCLONIC
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS SOME...AND
REINFORCING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS PAINT SOME QPF NEAR THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN SOME INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT LINGERS INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BROKEN CIGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING THE MID OR UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH...80 TO 85 NEAR
EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME LINGERING ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY...AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND...BUT MAY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTH.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH THE WEAK UPPER
RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW STARTS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY.
INLAND MAY NOT SEE ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...BUT SOME MARINE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN THICKENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE
COASTLINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
TOLLESON

LONG TERM...TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF ALASKA WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS STILL ARE STILL TRYING TO WORK OUT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN. GFS TODAY IS BRINGING TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH BRINGS THE
RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. THIS PROMOTES A BETTER CHANCE THAT ALL OF OUR
AREA WILL SEE SOME RAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA FOR NOW. DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS ANY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING A
STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
MOST INTERIOR TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. THE MAIN EXCEPTION
TO THIS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE AT THE PORTLAND TAF
SITES...PARTICULARLY KPDX AND KTTD WHERE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE NOTABLY STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO MVFR STRATUS
SHOULD IMPACT THESE TERMINALS BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 12Z AND 19Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KAST
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE CONDITIONS
WILL TEMPORARILY DROP INTO IFR AT KONP PERIODICALLY THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL BRING A STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z WEDNESDAY...AND PERSIST
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z TO 20Z WEDNESDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MOST AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS. AN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
SUCH AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS...BUT IT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 050408
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 PM PDT TUE AUG  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN B.C. EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SOUTH OVER THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS TO
THE AREA...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE TO AT LEAST THE NORTH COAST AREAS AT TIMES. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A BIT OF A WARM UP.
EXPECT A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE
CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.UPDATE...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ALTHOUGH
HAVE FUSSED WITH SKY COVER A FAIR AMOUNT THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW.
OVERALL AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM IS APPEARING A BIT DRIER THAN
MODEL RH AND CLOUD FIELDS WOULD IMPLY. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WHERE SOME MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE BROKEN
STRATUS FIELD JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIER CONDITIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 900
MB. THAT OFFSHORE FIELD IS MOVING CLOSER TO SHORE BUT IS LARGELY
THINNING AS IT REACHES THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OREGON/SW WASHINGTON
COAST AND MORE SO TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. HAVE DELAYED THE
TIMING OF SKIES CLOUDING UP TONIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND WILL
SHOW SOME THINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY...ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND THUS LIMIT
THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE COASTAL STRATUS. BUT...THOSE SAME WEAK
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHER MARINE DEW POINT AIR IN THE AREA AND ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONALLY COOLED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AND NORTH CASCADE FOOTHILLS AROUND DAYBREAK. HAVE THINNED OUT
THE INLAND CLOUD DECK AS A RESULT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AMPLE CLOUD COVER FOR BROAD LIFT TO
BRING POTENTIAL DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTH COAST BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL STRETCH. LEFT THE EXTENT OF THE DRIZZLE ALONE
AS THE POTENTIAL REMAINS AND WE ONLY HAD IT LISTED AS SLIGHT CHANCE
ANYWAY. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED IN B.C. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON.
THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND ONTO
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ON THE NORTH
COAST AND IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES UNDER THE CYCLONIC
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS SOME...AND
REINFORCING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS PAINT SOME QPF NEAR THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN SOME INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT LINGERS INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BROKEN CIGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING THE MID OR UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH...80 TO 85 NEAR
EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME LINGERING ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY...AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND...BUT MAY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTH.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH THE WEAK UPPER
RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW STARTS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY.
INLAND MAY NOT SEE ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...BUT SOME MARINE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN THICKENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE
COASTLINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
TOLLESON

LONG TERM...TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF ALASKA WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS STILL ARE STILL TRYING TO WORK OUT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN. GFS TODAY IS BRINGING TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH BRINGS THE
RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. THIS PROMOTES A BETTER CHANCE THAT ALL OF OUR
AREA WILL SEE SOME RAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA FOR NOW. DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS ANY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING A
STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
MOST INTERIOR TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. THE MAIN EXCEPTION
TO THIS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE AT THE PORTLAND TAF
SITES...PARTICULARLY KPDX AND KTTD WHERE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE NOTABLY STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO MVFR STRATUS
SHOULD IMPACT THESE TERMINALS BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 12Z AND 19Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KAST
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE CONDITIONS
WILL TEMPORARILY DROP INTO IFR AT KONP PERIODICALLY THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL BRING A STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z WEDNESDAY...AND PERSIST
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z TO 20Z WEDNESDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MOST AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS. AN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
SUCH AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS...BUT IT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 050408
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 PM PDT TUE AUG  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN B.C. EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SOUTH OVER THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS TO
THE AREA...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE TO AT LEAST THE NORTH COAST AREAS AT TIMES. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A BIT OF A WARM UP.
EXPECT A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE
CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.UPDATE...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ALTHOUGH
HAVE FUSSED WITH SKY COVER A FAIR AMOUNT THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW.
OVERALL AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM IS APPEARING A BIT DRIER THAN
MODEL RH AND CLOUD FIELDS WOULD IMPLY. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WHERE SOME MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE BROKEN
STRATUS FIELD JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIER CONDITIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 900
MB. THAT OFFSHORE FIELD IS MOVING CLOSER TO SHORE BUT IS LARGELY
THINNING AS IT REACHES THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OREGON/SW WASHINGTON
COAST AND MORE SO TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. HAVE DELAYED THE
TIMING OF SKIES CLOUDING UP TONIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND WILL
SHOW SOME THINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY...ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND THUS LIMIT
THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE COASTAL STRATUS. BUT...THOSE SAME WEAK
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHER MARINE DEW POINT AIR IN THE AREA AND ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONALLY COOLED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AND NORTH CASCADE FOOTHILLS AROUND DAYBREAK. HAVE THINNED OUT
THE INLAND CLOUD DECK AS A RESULT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AMPLE CLOUD COVER FOR BROAD LIFT TO
BRING POTENTIAL DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTH COAST BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL STRETCH. LEFT THE EXTENT OF THE DRIZZLE ALONE
AS THE POTENTIAL REMAINS AND WE ONLY HAD IT LISTED AS SLIGHT CHANCE
ANYWAY. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED IN B.C. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON.
THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND ONTO
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ON THE NORTH
COAST AND IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES UNDER THE CYCLONIC
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS SOME...AND
REINFORCING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS PAINT SOME QPF NEAR THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN SOME INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT LINGERS INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BROKEN CIGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING THE MID OR UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH...80 TO 85 NEAR
EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME LINGERING ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY...AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND...BUT MAY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTH.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH THE WEAK UPPER
RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW STARTS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY.
INLAND MAY NOT SEE ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...BUT SOME MARINE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN THICKENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE
COASTLINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
TOLLESON

LONG TERM...TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF ALASKA WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS STILL ARE STILL TRYING TO WORK OUT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN. GFS TODAY IS BRINGING TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH BRINGS THE
RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. THIS PROMOTES A BETTER CHANCE THAT ALL OF OUR
AREA WILL SEE SOME RAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA FOR NOW. DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS ANY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING A
STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
MOST INTERIOR TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. THE MAIN EXCEPTION
TO THIS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE AT THE PORTLAND TAF
SITES...PARTICULARLY KPDX AND KTTD WHERE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE NOTABLY STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO MVFR STRATUS
SHOULD IMPACT THESE TERMINALS BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 12Z AND 19Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KAST
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE CONDITIONS
WILL TEMPORARILY DROP INTO IFR AT KONP PERIODICALLY THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL BRING A STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z WEDNESDAY...AND PERSIST
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z TO 20Z WEDNESDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MOST AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS. AN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
SUCH AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS...BUT IT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050408
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 PM PDT TUE AUG  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN B.C. EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SOUTH OVER THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS TO
THE AREA...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE TO AT LEAST THE NORTH COAST AREAS AT TIMES. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A BIT OF A WARM UP.
EXPECT A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE
CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.UPDATE...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ALTHOUGH
HAVE FUSSED WITH SKY COVER A FAIR AMOUNT THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW.
OVERALL AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM IS APPEARING A BIT DRIER THAN
MODEL RH AND CLOUD FIELDS WOULD IMPLY. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WHERE SOME MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE BROKEN
STRATUS FIELD JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIER CONDITIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 900
MB. THAT OFFSHORE FIELD IS MOVING CLOSER TO SHORE BUT IS LARGELY
THINNING AS IT REACHES THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OREGON/SW WASHINGTON
COAST AND MORE SO TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. HAVE DELAYED THE
TIMING OF SKIES CLOUDING UP TONIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND WILL
SHOW SOME THINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY...ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND THUS LIMIT
THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE COASTAL STRATUS. BUT...THOSE SAME WEAK
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHER MARINE DEW POINT AIR IN THE AREA AND ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONALLY COOLED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AND NORTH CASCADE FOOTHILLS AROUND DAYBREAK. HAVE THINNED OUT
THE INLAND CLOUD DECK AS A RESULT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AMPLE CLOUD COVER FOR BROAD LIFT TO
BRING POTENTIAL DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTH COAST BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL STRETCH. LEFT THE EXTENT OF THE DRIZZLE ALONE
AS THE POTENTIAL REMAINS AND WE ONLY HAD IT LISTED AS SLIGHT CHANCE
ANYWAY. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED IN B.C. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON.
THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND ONTO
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ON THE NORTH
COAST AND IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES UNDER THE CYCLONIC
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS SOME...AND
REINFORCING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS PAINT SOME QPF NEAR THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN SOME INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT LINGERS INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BROKEN CIGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING THE MID OR UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH...80 TO 85 NEAR
EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME LINGERING ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY...AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND...BUT MAY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTH.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH THE WEAK UPPER
RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW STARTS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY.
INLAND MAY NOT SEE ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...BUT SOME MARINE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN THICKENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE
COASTLINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
TOLLESON

LONG TERM...TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF ALASKA WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS STILL ARE STILL TRYING TO WORK OUT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN. GFS TODAY IS BRINGING TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH BRINGS THE
RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. THIS PROMOTES A BETTER CHANCE THAT ALL OF OUR
AREA WILL SEE SOME RAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA FOR NOW. DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS ANY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING A
STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
MOST INTERIOR TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. THE MAIN EXCEPTION
TO THIS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE AT THE PORTLAND TAF
SITES...PARTICULARLY KPDX AND KTTD WHERE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE NOTABLY STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO MVFR STRATUS
SHOULD IMPACT THESE TERMINALS BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 12Z AND 19Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KAST
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE CONDITIONS
WILL TEMPORARILY DROP INTO IFR AT KONP PERIODICALLY THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL BRING A STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z WEDNESDAY...AND PERSIST
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z TO 20Z WEDNESDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MOST AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS. AN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
SUCH AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS...BUT IT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050408
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 PM PDT TUE AUG  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN B.C. EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SOUTH OVER THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS TO
THE AREA...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE TO AT LEAST THE NORTH COAST AREAS AT TIMES. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A BIT OF A WARM UP.
EXPECT A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE
CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.UPDATE...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ALTHOUGH
HAVE FUSSED WITH SKY COVER A FAIR AMOUNT THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW.
OVERALL AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM IS APPEARING A BIT DRIER THAN
MODEL RH AND CLOUD FIELDS WOULD IMPLY. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WHERE SOME MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE BROKEN
STRATUS FIELD JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIER CONDITIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 900
MB. THAT OFFSHORE FIELD IS MOVING CLOSER TO SHORE BUT IS LARGELY
THINNING AS IT REACHES THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OREGON/SW WASHINGTON
COAST AND MORE SO TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. HAVE DELAYED THE
TIMING OF SKIES CLOUDING UP TONIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND WILL
SHOW SOME THINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY...ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND THUS LIMIT
THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE COASTAL STRATUS. BUT...THOSE SAME WEAK
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHER MARINE DEW POINT AIR IN THE AREA AND ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONALLY COOLED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AND NORTH CASCADE FOOTHILLS AROUND DAYBREAK. HAVE THINNED OUT
THE INLAND CLOUD DECK AS A RESULT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AMPLE CLOUD COVER FOR BROAD LIFT TO
BRING POTENTIAL DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTH COAST BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL STRETCH. LEFT THE EXTENT OF THE DRIZZLE ALONE
AS THE POTENTIAL REMAINS AND WE ONLY HAD IT LISTED AS SLIGHT CHANCE
ANYWAY. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED IN B.C. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON.
THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND ONTO
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ON THE NORTH
COAST AND IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES UNDER THE CYCLONIC
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS SOME...AND
REINFORCING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS PAINT SOME QPF NEAR THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN SOME INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT LINGERS INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BROKEN CIGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING THE MID OR UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH...80 TO 85 NEAR
EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME LINGERING ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY...AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND...BUT MAY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTH.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH THE WEAK UPPER
RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW STARTS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY.
INLAND MAY NOT SEE ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...BUT SOME MARINE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN THICKENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE
COASTLINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
TOLLESON

LONG TERM...TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF ALASKA WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS STILL ARE STILL TRYING TO WORK OUT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN. GFS TODAY IS BRINGING TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH BRINGS THE
RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. THIS PROMOTES A BETTER CHANCE THAT ALL OF OUR
AREA WILL SEE SOME RAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA FOR NOW. DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS ANY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING A
STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
MOST INTERIOR TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. THE MAIN EXCEPTION
TO THIS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE AT THE PORTLAND TAF
SITES...PARTICULARLY KPDX AND KTTD WHERE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE NOTABLY STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO MVFR STRATUS
SHOULD IMPACT THESE TERMINALS BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 12Z AND 19Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KAST
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE CONDITIONS
WILL TEMPORARILY DROP INTO IFR AT KONP PERIODICALLY THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL BRING A STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z WEDNESDAY...AND PERSIST
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z TO 20Z WEDNESDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MOST AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS. AN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
SUCH AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS...BUT IT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050408
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 PM PDT TUE AUG  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN B.C. EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SOUTH OVER THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS TO
THE AREA...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE TO AT LEAST THE NORTH COAST AREAS AT TIMES. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A BIT OF A WARM UP.
EXPECT A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE
CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.UPDATE...NO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ALTHOUGH
HAVE FUSSED WITH SKY COVER A FAIR AMOUNT THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW.
OVERALL AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM IS APPEARING A BIT DRIER THAN
MODEL RH AND CLOUD FIELDS WOULD IMPLY. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WHERE SOME MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE BROKEN
STRATUS FIELD JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIER CONDITIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 900
MB. THAT OFFSHORE FIELD IS MOVING CLOSER TO SHORE BUT IS LARGELY
THINNING AS IT REACHES THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OREGON/SW WASHINGTON
COAST AND MORE SO TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. HAVE DELAYED THE
TIMING OF SKIES CLOUDING UP TONIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND WILL
SHOW SOME THINNING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY...ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND THUS LIMIT
THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE COASTAL STRATUS. BUT...THOSE SAME WEAK
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHER MARINE DEW POINT AIR IN THE AREA AND ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONALLY COOLED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AND NORTH CASCADE FOOTHILLS AROUND DAYBREAK. HAVE THINNED OUT
THE INLAND CLOUD DECK AS A RESULT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AMPLE CLOUD COVER FOR BROAD LIFT TO
BRING POTENTIAL DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTH COAST BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL STRETCH. LEFT THE EXTENT OF THE DRIZZLE ALONE
AS THE POTENTIAL REMAINS AND WE ONLY HAD IT LISTED AS SLIGHT CHANCE
ANYWAY. UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. /JBONK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED IN B.C. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON.
THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND ONTO
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ON THE NORTH
COAST AND IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES UNDER THE CYCLONIC
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS SOME...AND
REINFORCING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS PAINT SOME QPF NEAR THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN SOME INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT LINGERS INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BROKEN CIGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING THE MID OR UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH...80 TO 85 NEAR
EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME LINGERING ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY...AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND...BUT MAY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTH.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH THE WEAK UPPER
RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW STARTS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY.
INLAND MAY NOT SEE ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...BUT SOME MARINE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN THICKENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE
COASTLINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
TOLLESON

LONG TERM...TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF ALASKA WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS STILL ARE STILL TRYING TO WORK OUT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN. GFS TODAY IS BRINGING TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH BRINGS THE
RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. THIS PROMOTES A BETTER CHANCE THAT ALL OF OUR
AREA WILL SEE SOME RAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA FOR NOW. DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS ANY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BRING A
STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
MOST INTERIOR TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. THE MAIN EXCEPTION
TO THIS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE AT THE PORTLAND TAF
SITES...PARTICULARLY KPDX AND KTTD WHERE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE NOTABLY STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO MVFR STRATUS
SHOULD IMPACT THESE TERMINALS BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 12Z AND 19Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KAST
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE CONDITIONS
WILL TEMPORARILY DROP INTO IFR AT KONP PERIODICALLY THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL BRING A STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z WEDNESDAY...AND PERSIST
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z TO 20Z WEDNESDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND CENTRAL OREGON WATERS MOST AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS. AN OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
SUCH AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS...BUT IT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 050341
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
941 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH INITIATED
OVER FAR SE OREGON AND THE IN/NV BORDER IS DECREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH SUNSET. WATCHING A SECOND AREA OF LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHERN NV WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
IN NORTHERN CA. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. EVENING WEATHER
BALLOON FROM KBOI SHOWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF DEEPER
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS REMAINS LOW. NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE HASN/T
CHANGED MUCH WITH OVERNIGHT FORECAST SO WILL NOT UPDATE AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF A KBOI-KTWF
LINE.  AFTER 05Z SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT
WESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT AND WED. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH
IS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL...AND WHICH WOULD MAKE TWO NIGHTS IN A ROW
FOR MANY FOLKS IN THE BOISE AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST TOMORROW...RESULTING IN DECREASING POPS IN SE OREGON
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS SW IDAHO IN THE EVENING...
POPS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE WED NIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RELATIVELY DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL COME IN THU...BRINGING A DRY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BOTH WED AND THU...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING CONSIDERABLY FROM
TONIGHT TO WED NIGHT. TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AROUND...LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WED NIGHT...WITH DRY AIR AND CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW COULD GUST 35 TO
45 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS. LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A HAZARD WITH THUNDERSTORMS...
REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF RAIN...HAIL...OR WIND.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OFF OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER...AND SPREAD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND BEEN PARTIAL ABSORBED
INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LOW OFF OF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. NONETHELESS...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
HAVE SHIFTED EAST BY THIS TIME SO MOST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM. BY SUNDAY...UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND THE AREA WILL
TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LEADING TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION. LEFT POPS TO MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CLIMO FOR NOW. TEMPS LINGER RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ400-401-420-424.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY ORZ637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 050341
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
941 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH INITIATED
OVER FAR SE OREGON AND THE IN/NV BORDER IS DECREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH SUNSET. WATCHING A SECOND AREA OF LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHERN NV WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
IN NORTHERN CA. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. EVENING WEATHER
BALLOON FROM KBOI SHOWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF DEEPER
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS REMAINS LOW. NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE HASN/T
CHANGED MUCH WITH OVERNIGHT FORECAST SO WILL NOT UPDATE AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF A KBOI-KTWF
LINE.  AFTER 05Z SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT
WESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT AND WED. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH
IS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL...AND WHICH WOULD MAKE TWO NIGHTS IN A ROW
FOR MANY FOLKS IN THE BOISE AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST TOMORROW...RESULTING IN DECREASING POPS IN SE OREGON
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS SW IDAHO IN THE EVENING...
POPS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE WED NIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RELATIVELY DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL COME IN THU...BRINGING A DRY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BOTH WED AND THU...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING CONSIDERABLY FROM
TONIGHT TO WED NIGHT. TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AROUND...LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WED NIGHT...WITH DRY AIR AND CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW COULD GUST 35 TO
45 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS. LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A HAZARD WITH THUNDERSTORMS...
REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF RAIN...HAIL...OR WIND.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OFF OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER...AND SPREAD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND BEEN PARTIAL ABSORBED
INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LOW OFF OF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. NONETHELESS...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
HAVE SHIFTED EAST BY THIS TIME SO MOST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM. BY SUNDAY...UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND THE AREA WILL
TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LEADING TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION. LEFT POPS TO MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CLIMO FOR NOW. TEMPS LINGER RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ400-401-420-424.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY ORZ637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 050341
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
941 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH INITIATED
OVER FAR SE OREGON AND THE IN/NV BORDER IS DECREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH SUNSET. WATCHING A SECOND AREA OF LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHERN NV WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
IN NORTHERN CA. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. EVENING WEATHER
BALLOON FROM KBOI SHOWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF DEEPER
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS REMAINS LOW. NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE HASN/T
CHANGED MUCH WITH OVERNIGHT FORECAST SO WILL NOT UPDATE AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF A KBOI-KTWF
LINE.  AFTER 05Z SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT
WESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT AND WED. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH
IS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL...AND WHICH WOULD MAKE TWO NIGHTS IN A ROW
FOR MANY FOLKS IN THE BOISE AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST TOMORROW...RESULTING IN DECREASING POPS IN SE OREGON
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS SW IDAHO IN THE EVENING...
POPS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE WED NIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RELATIVELY DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL COME IN THU...BRINGING A DRY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BOTH WED AND THU...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING CONSIDERABLY FROM
TONIGHT TO WED NIGHT. TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AROUND...LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WED NIGHT...WITH DRY AIR AND CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW COULD GUST 35 TO
45 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS. LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A HAZARD WITH THUNDERSTORMS...
REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF RAIN...HAIL...OR WIND.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OFF OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER...AND SPREAD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND BEEN PARTIAL ABSORBED
INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LOW OFF OF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. NONETHELESS...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
HAVE SHIFTED EAST BY THIS TIME SO MOST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM. BY SUNDAY...UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND THE AREA WILL
TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LEADING TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION. LEFT POPS TO MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CLIMO FOR NOW. TEMPS LINGER RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ400-401-420-424.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY ORZ637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 050341
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
941 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH INITIATED
OVER FAR SE OREGON AND THE IN/NV BORDER IS DECREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH SUNSET. WATCHING A SECOND AREA OF LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHERN NV WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
IN NORTHERN CA. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. EVENING WEATHER
BALLOON FROM KBOI SHOWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF DEEPER
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS REMAINS LOW. NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE HASN/T
CHANGED MUCH WITH OVERNIGHT FORECAST SO WILL NOT UPDATE AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF A KBOI-KTWF
LINE.  AFTER 05Z SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT
WESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT AND WED. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH
IS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL...AND WHICH WOULD MAKE TWO NIGHTS IN A ROW
FOR MANY FOLKS IN THE BOISE AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST TOMORROW...RESULTING IN DECREASING POPS IN SE OREGON
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS SW IDAHO IN THE EVENING...
POPS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE WED NIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RELATIVELY DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL COME IN THU...BRINGING A DRY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BOTH WED AND THU...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING CONSIDERABLY FROM
TONIGHT TO WED NIGHT. TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AROUND...LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WED NIGHT...WITH DRY AIR AND CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW COULD GUST 35 TO
45 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS. LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A HAZARD WITH THUNDERSTORMS...
REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF RAIN...HAIL...OR WIND.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OFF OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER...AND SPREAD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND BEEN PARTIAL ABSORBED
INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LOW OFF OF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. NONETHELESS...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
HAVE SHIFTED EAST BY THIS TIME SO MOST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM. BY SUNDAY...UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND THE AREA WILL
TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LEADING TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION. LEFT POPS TO MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CLIMO FOR NOW. TEMPS LINGER RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ400-401-420-424.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY ORZ637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC




000
FXUS66 KPDT 050201
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
701 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN OREGON.
STILL HAVE AN AREA OF CUMULUS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS AND NOW SEEING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR INDICATES
THE UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY STRONG AND MAY HAVE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO
IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL END BY LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LARGE
UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN BC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
TOMORROW WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
WESTERLY WINDS TO BE INCREASING AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
WITH 15-25 MPH BY AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS. 94

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. COMBINED THEY
ARE PRODUCING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
PIECE OF ENERGY IS BREAKING AWAY FROM THE COASTAL LOW AND WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ITS PATH CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ADD A LITTLE KICK TO THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EASTERN DESCHUTES COUNTY TO WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING SOME COOLER DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 5 TO 10 DEGREES. ON THURSDAY THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
THE COOL DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. BY FRIDAY THE FLAT RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION BUT THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN MOVING INLAND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COULD REACH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
AN UPPER LOW HEADING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST AND A WEAK WAVE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON SOUTH OF MADRAS AND
IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THAT WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND ENDING UP OFF THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ON MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ASHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A TROUGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW
WILL CARRY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND ALONG WITH INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GIVE CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE CASCADES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING. SUNDAY
WILL SEE GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND INTO IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED AT 7000-
10000 FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AFFECTING
KRDM, KBDN AND KYKM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN DESCHUTES COUNTY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT APPROACH
ANY TAF SITES. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REACHED 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KDLS AND KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN HAVE REACHED 10 TO
15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. OTHER TAF SITES ARE BELOW 15 KTS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT THEN BEGIN INCREASING AFTER 15Z AND REACH
VALUES SIMILAR OR A COUPLE OF KTS FASTER THAN TODAY AFTER 18Z. PERRY

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH 9 PM.
HOWEVER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT WIDESPREAD.  I CONSIDERED
DROPPING THE WARNING BUT DECIDE AGAINST THIS AS THERE ARE SOME
OBSERVATIONS MEETING CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER MARGINAL
SITUATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.  IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
RH`S AROUND 15-25 PERCENT IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
SURROUNDING VALLEYS. ANOTHER FIRE CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
TONIGHT.  THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LAL`S WILL BE 2-3 IN
FAR SOUTHERN 642 OVER NORTHERN HARNEY COUNTY TONIGHT.  THERE MAY
ALSO BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN BAKER AND
WALLOWA COUNTY (FIRE ZONE 645).  SURFACE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ARE LIMITED...SO BELIEVE IT WILL PRIMARILY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO NOT WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  59  84  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  65  85  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  60  88  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  57  81  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  61  86  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  60  80  55  83 /   0   0  10   0
RDM  48  80  41  82 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  50  80  49  80 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  54  84  47  85 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  62  81  59  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ639-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94




000
FXUS66 KPDT 050201
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
701 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN OREGON.
STILL HAVE AN AREA OF CUMULUS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS AND NOW SEEING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR INDICATES
THE UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY STRONG AND MAY HAVE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO
IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL END BY LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LARGE
UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN BC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
TOMORROW WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
WESTERLY WINDS TO BE INCREASING AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
WITH 15-25 MPH BY AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS. 94

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. COMBINED THEY
ARE PRODUCING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
PIECE OF ENERGY IS BREAKING AWAY FROM THE COASTAL LOW AND WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ITS PATH CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ADD A LITTLE KICK TO THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EASTERN DESCHUTES COUNTY TO WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING SOME COOLER DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 5 TO 10 DEGREES. ON THURSDAY THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
THE COOL DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. BY FRIDAY THE FLAT RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION BUT THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN MOVING INLAND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COULD REACH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
AN UPPER LOW HEADING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST AND A WEAK WAVE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON SOUTH OF MADRAS AND
IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THAT WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND ENDING UP OFF THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ON MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ASHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A TROUGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW
WILL CARRY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND ALONG WITH INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GIVE CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE CASCADES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING. SUNDAY
WILL SEE GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND INTO IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED AT 7000-
10000 FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AFFECTING
KRDM, KBDN AND KYKM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN DESCHUTES COUNTY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT APPROACH
ANY TAF SITES. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REACHED 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KDLS AND KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN HAVE REACHED 10 TO
15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. OTHER TAF SITES ARE BELOW 15 KTS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT THEN BEGIN INCREASING AFTER 15Z AND REACH
VALUES SIMILAR OR A COUPLE OF KTS FASTER THAN TODAY AFTER 18Z. PERRY

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH 9 PM.
HOWEVER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT WIDESPREAD.  I CONSIDERED
DROPPING THE WARNING BUT DECIDE AGAINST THIS AS THERE ARE SOME
OBSERVATIONS MEETING CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER MARGINAL
SITUATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.  IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
RH`S AROUND 15-25 PERCENT IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
SURROUNDING VALLEYS. ANOTHER FIRE CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
TONIGHT.  THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LAL`S WILL BE 2-3 IN
FAR SOUTHERN 642 OVER NORTHERN HARNEY COUNTY TONIGHT.  THERE MAY
ALSO BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN BAKER AND
WALLOWA COUNTY (FIRE ZONE 645).  SURFACE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ARE LIMITED...SO BELIEVE IT WILL PRIMARILY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO NOT WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  59  84  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  65  85  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  60  88  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  57  81  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  61  86  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  60  80  55  83 /   0   0  10   0
RDM  48  80  41  82 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  50  80  49  80 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  54  84  47  85 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  62  81  59  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ639-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94




000
FXUS66 KPDT 050201
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
701 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN OREGON.
STILL HAVE AN AREA OF CUMULUS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS AND NOW SEEING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR INDICATES
THE UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY STRONG AND MAY HAVE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO
IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL END BY LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LARGE
UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN BC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
TOMORROW WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
WESTERLY WINDS TO BE INCREASING AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
WITH 15-25 MPH BY AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS. 94

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. COMBINED THEY
ARE PRODUCING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
PIECE OF ENERGY IS BREAKING AWAY FROM THE COASTAL LOW AND WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ITS PATH CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ADD A LITTLE KICK TO THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EASTERN DESCHUTES COUNTY TO WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING SOME COOLER DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 5 TO 10 DEGREES. ON THURSDAY THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
THE COOL DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. BY FRIDAY THE FLAT RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION BUT THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN MOVING INLAND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COULD REACH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
AN UPPER LOW HEADING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST AND A WEAK WAVE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON SOUTH OF MADRAS AND
IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THAT WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND ENDING UP OFF THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ON MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ASHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A TROUGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW
WILL CARRY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND ALONG WITH INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GIVE CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE CASCADES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING. SUNDAY
WILL SEE GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND INTO IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED AT 7000-
10000 FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AFFECTING
KRDM, KBDN AND KYKM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN DESCHUTES COUNTY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT APPROACH
ANY TAF SITES. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REACHED 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KDLS AND KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN HAVE REACHED 10 TO
15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. OTHER TAF SITES ARE BELOW 15 KTS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT THEN BEGIN INCREASING AFTER 15Z AND REACH
VALUES SIMILAR OR A COUPLE OF KTS FASTER THAN TODAY AFTER 18Z. PERRY

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH 9 PM.
HOWEVER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT WIDESPREAD.  I CONSIDERED
DROPPING THE WARNING BUT DECIDE AGAINST THIS AS THERE ARE SOME
OBSERVATIONS MEETING CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER MARGINAL
SITUATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.  IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
RH`S AROUND 15-25 PERCENT IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
SURROUNDING VALLEYS. ANOTHER FIRE CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
TONIGHT.  THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LAL`S WILL BE 2-3 IN
FAR SOUTHERN 642 OVER NORTHERN HARNEY COUNTY TONIGHT.  THERE MAY
ALSO BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN BAKER AND
WALLOWA COUNTY (FIRE ZONE 645).  SURFACE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ARE LIMITED...SO BELIEVE IT WILL PRIMARILY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO NOT WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  59  84  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  65  85  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  60  88  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  57  81  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  61  86  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  60  80  55  83 /   0   0  10   0
RDM  48  80  41  82 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  50  80  49  80 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  54  84  47  85 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  62  81  59  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ639-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94




000
FXUS66 KPDT 050201
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
701 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN OREGON.
STILL HAVE AN AREA OF CUMULUS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS AND NOW SEEING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR INDICATES
THE UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY STRONG AND MAY HAVE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO
IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OREGON WILL END BY LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LARGE
UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN BC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
TOMORROW WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
WESTERLY WINDS TO BE INCREASING AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
WITH 15-25 MPH BY AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS. 94

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. COMBINED THEY
ARE PRODUCING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
PIECE OF ENERGY IS BREAKING AWAY FROM THE COASTAL LOW AND WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ITS PATH CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ADD A LITTLE KICK TO THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EASTERN DESCHUTES COUNTY TO WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING SOME COOLER DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 5 TO 10 DEGREES. ON THURSDAY THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
THE COOL DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. BY FRIDAY THE FLAT RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION BUT THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN MOVING INLAND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COULD REACH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
AN UPPER LOW HEADING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST AND A WEAK WAVE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON SOUTH OF MADRAS AND
IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THAT WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND ENDING UP OFF THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ON MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ASHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A TROUGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW
WILL CARRY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND ALONG WITH INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GIVE CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE CASCADES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING. SUNDAY
WILL SEE GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND INTO IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED AT 7000-
10000 FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AFFECTING
KRDM, KBDN AND KYKM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN DESCHUTES COUNTY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT APPROACH
ANY TAF SITES. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REACHED 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KDLS AND KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN HAVE REACHED 10 TO
15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. OTHER TAF SITES ARE BELOW 15 KTS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT THEN BEGIN INCREASING AFTER 15Z AND REACH
VALUES SIMILAR OR A COUPLE OF KTS FASTER THAN TODAY AFTER 18Z. PERRY

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH 9 PM.
HOWEVER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT WIDESPREAD.  I CONSIDERED
DROPPING THE WARNING BUT DECIDE AGAINST THIS AS THERE ARE SOME
OBSERVATIONS MEETING CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER MARGINAL
SITUATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.  IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
RH`S AROUND 15-25 PERCENT IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
SURROUNDING VALLEYS. ANOTHER FIRE CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
TONIGHT.  THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LAL`S WILL BE 2-3 IN
FAR SOUTHERN 642 OVER NORTHERN HARNEY COUNTY TONIGHT.  THERE MAY
ALSO BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN BAKER AND
WALLOWA COUNTY (FIRE ZONE 645).  SURFACE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ARE LIMITED...SO BELIEVE IT WILL PRIMARILY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO NOT WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  59  84  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  65  85  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  60  88  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  57  81  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  61  86  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  60  80  55  83 /   0   0  10   0
RDM  48  80  41  82 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  50  80  49  80 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  54  84  47  85 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  62  81  59  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ639-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94




000
FXUS66 KMFR 050000
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY
NEAR SUMMER RIM.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL RIDGES WITH A
CHETCO EFFECT BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE BROOKINGS AREA.
LATE THURSDAY, EXPECT AN UPPER LOW TO SHIFT INTO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALFIORNIA THEN MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INLAND EXPECT SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIRTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN SOUTHERN OREGON.

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WEST AT LEAST THROUGH THUS WEEKEND AS DAYTIME NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS. OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY MAY BRING LESS SMOKE TO
THE CASCADES BUT INCREASED SMOKE TO THE CURRY COAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVES DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THEN ON
SUNDAY WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH AND A RIDGE
STRENGTHENING INLAND, EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
THE WESTERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN OREGON EAST INTO THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
ON SUNDAY AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MAY CUTOFF AND BRING A CUTOFF
LOW TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ON WHETHER A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WHERE
IT MAY BE POSITIONED. /CC

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR
CIGS ARE IMPACTING THE COAST FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTH TO BROOKINGS. VFR
WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST, BUT
EXPECT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AFTER 03Z, INCLUDING AT
KOTH. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KRBG, BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BRING MVFR
VISIBILITY TO KMFR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VIS MAY LOWER TEMPORARILY
TO IFR THIS EVENING. IN NORTHERN CALIFOTRNIA AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
VFR. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. A GALE/HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIME
FRAME FOR AN AREA BEYOND 10 NM AND MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL EASE AT THAT TIME. SPILDE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. WHILE THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SWATH OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
OREGON, THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR PRECIPITATION FIELDS ARE
DEPICTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER AREA OVER LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE RESULT OF A CONVERGENCE OF SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY, THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY, AND SOME JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THESE FACTORS,
WHILE EXISTING ONLY A SHORT TIME OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY, MAY LAST WELL
INTO THE NIGHT FARTHER EAST, AND THEREFORE NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF FIREFIGHTING
RESOURCES, AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ABOVE AREAS. SOME
STORMS MAY BEGIN DRY, BUT SHOULD TREND WETTER AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. UNTIL THEN, GUSTY WINDS ARE OF PRIMARY CONCERN. OVERALL,
LIGHTING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS STARTS, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE IGNITION RATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND NO
OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN,
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE PERIODS OF MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS RIDGELINES AT
VARYING TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO BE AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/CC/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 050000
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY
NEAR SUMMER RIM.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL RIDGES WITH A
CHETCO EFFECT BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE BROOKINGS AREA.
LATE THURSDAY, EXPECT AN UPPER LOW TO SHIFT INTO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALFIORNIA THEN MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INLAND EXPECT SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIRTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN SOUTHERN OREGON.

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WEST AT LEAST THROUGH THUS WEEKEND AS DAYTIME NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS. OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY MAY BRING LESS SMOKE TO
THE CASCADES BUT INCREASED SMOKE TO THE CURRY COAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVES DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THEN ON
SUNDAY WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH AND A RIDGE
STRENGTHENING INLAND, EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
THE WESTERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN OREGON EAST INTO THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
ON SUNDAY AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MAY CUTOFF AND BRING A CUTOFF
LOW TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ON WHETHER A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WHERE
IT MAY BE POSITIONED. /CC

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR
CIGS ARE IMPACTING THE COAST FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTH TO BROOKINGS. VFR
WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST, BUT
EXPECT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AFTER 03Z, INCLUDING AT
KOTH. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KRBG, BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BRING MVFR
VISIBILITY TO KMFR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VIS MAY LOWER TEMPORARILY
TO IFR THIS EVENING. IN NORTHERN CALIFOTRNIA AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
VFR. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. A GALE/HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIME
FRAME FOR AN AREA BEYOND 10 NM AND MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL EASE AT THAT TIME. SPILDE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. WHILE THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SWATH OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
OREGON, THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR PRECIPITATION FIELDS ARE
DEPICTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER AREA OVER LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE RESULT OF A CONVERGENCE OF SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY, THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY, AND SOME JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THESE FACTORS,
WHILE EXISTING ONLY A SHORT TIME OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY, MAY LAST WELL
INTO THE NIGHT FARTHER EAST, AND THEREFORE NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF FIREFIGHTING
RESOURCES, AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ABOVE AREAS. SOME
STORMS MAY BEGIN DRY, BUT SHOULD TREND WETTER AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. UNTIL THEN, GUSTY WINDS ARE OF PRIMARY CONCERN. OVERALL,
LIGHTING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS STARTS, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE IGNITION RATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND NO
OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN,
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE PERIODS OF MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS RIDGELINES AT
VARYING TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO BE AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/CC/BPN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 050000
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY
NEAR SUMMER RIM.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL RIDGES WITH A
CHETCO EFFECT BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE BROOKINGS AREA.
LATE THURSDAY, EXPECT AN UPPER LOW TO SHIFT INTO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALFIORNIA THEN MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INLAND EXPECT SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIRTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN SOUTHERN OREGON.

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WEST AT LEAST THROUGH THUS WEEKEND AS DAYTIME NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS. OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY MAY BRING LESS SMOKE TO
THE CASCADES BUT INCREASED SMOKE TO THE CURRY COAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVES DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THEN ON
SUNDAY WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH AND A RIDGE
STRENGTHENING INLAND, EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
THE WESTERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN OREGON EAST INTO THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
ON SUNDAY AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MAY CUTOFF AND BRING A CUTOFF
LOW TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ON WHETHER A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WHERE
IT MAY BE POSITIONED. /CC

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR
CIGS ARE IMPACTING THE COAST FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTH TO BROOKINGS. VFR
WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST, BUT
EXPECT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AFTER 03Z, INCLUDING AT
KOTH. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KRBG, BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BRING MVFR
VISIBILITY TO KMFR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VIS MAY LOWER TEMPORARILY
TO IFR THIS EVENING. IN NORTHERN CALIFOTRNIA AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
VFR. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. A GALE/HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIME
FRAME FOR AN AREA BEYOND 10 NM AND MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL EASE AT THAT TIME. SPILDE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. WHILE THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SWATH OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
OREGON, THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR PRECIPITATION FIELDS ARE
DEPICTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER AREA OVER LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE RESULT OF A CONVERGENCE OF SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY, THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY, AND SOME JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THESE FACTORS,
WHILE EXISTING ONLY A SHORT TIME OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY, MAY LAST WELL
INTO THE NIGHT FARTHER EAST, AND THEREFORE NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF FIREFIGHTING
RESOURCES, AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ABOVE AREAS. SOME
STORMS MAY BEGIN DRY, BUT SHOULD TREND WETTER AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. UNTIL THEN, GUSTY WINDS ARE OF PRIMARY CONCERN. OVERALL,
LIGHTING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS STARTS, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE IGNITION RATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND NO
OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN,
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE PERIODS OF MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS RIDGELINES AT
VARYING TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO BE AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/CC/BPN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 050000
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY
NEAR SUMMER RIM.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL RIDGES WITH A
CHETCO EFFECT BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE BROOKINGS AREA.
LATE THURSDAY, EXPECT AN UPPER LOW TO SHIFT INTO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALFIORNIA THEN MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INLAND EXPECT SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIRTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN SOUTHERN OREGON.

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WEST AT LEAST THROUGH THUS WEEKEND AS DAYTIME NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS. OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY MAY BRING LESS SMOKE TO
THE CASCADES BUT INCREASED SMOKE TO THE CURRY COAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVES DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THEN ON
SUNDAY WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH AND A RIDGE
STRENGTHENING INLAND, EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
THE WESTERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN OREGON EAST INTO THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
ON SUNDAY AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MAY CUTOFF AND BRING A CUTOFF
LOW TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ON WHETHER A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WHERE
IT MAY BE POSITIONED. /CC

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR
CIGS ARE IMPACTING THE COAST FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTH TO BROOKINGS. VFR
WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST, BUT
EXPECT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AFTER 03Z, INCLUDING AT
KOTH. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KRBG, BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BRING MVFR
VISIBILITY TO KMFR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VIS MAY LOWER TEMPORARILY
TO IFR THIS EVENING. IN NORTHERN CALIFOTRNIA AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
VFR. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. A GALE/HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIME
FRAME FOR AN AREA BEYOND 10 NM AND MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL EASE AT THAT TIME. SPILDE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. WHILE THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SWATH OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
OREGON, THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR PRECIPITATION FIELDS ARE
DEPICTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER AREA OVER LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE RESULT OF A CONVERGENCE OF SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY, THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY, AND SOME JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THESE FACTORS,
WHILE EXISTING ONLY A SHORT TIME OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY, MAY LAST WELL
INTO THE NIGHT FARTHER EAST, AND THEREFORE NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF FIREFIGHTING
RESOURCES, AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ABOVE AREAS. SOME
STORMS MAY BEGIN DRY, BUT SHOULD TREND WETTER AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. UNTIL THEN, GUSTY WINDS ARE OF PRIMARY CONCERN. OVERALL,
LIGHTING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS STARTS, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE IGNITION RATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND NO
OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN,
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE PERIODS OF MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS RIDGELINES AT
VARYING TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO BE AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/CC/BPN




000
FXUS66 KPDT 042310 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
410 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. COMBINED THEY
ARE PRODUCING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
PIECE OF ENERGY IS BREAKING AWAY FROM THE COASTAL LOW AND WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ITS PATH CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ADD A LITTLE KICK TO THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EASTERN DESCHUTES COUNTY TO WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING SOME COOLER DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 5 TO 10 DEGREES. ON THURSDAY THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
THE COOL DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. BY FRIDAY THE FLAT RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION BUT THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN MOVING INLAND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COULD REACH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.





.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE AN
UPPER LOW HEADING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A WEAK WAVE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON SOUTH OF MADRAS AND IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THAT WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND ENDING UP OFF THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ON MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ASHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA
ON TUESDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A TROUGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL CARRY
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND ALONG WITH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL GIVE CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE
CASCADES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING. SUNDAY WILL
SEE GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND INTO IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED AT 7000-
10000 FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AFFECTING
KRDM, KBDN AND KYKM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN DESCHUTES COUNTY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT APPROACH
ANY TAF SITES. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REACHED 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KDLS AND KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN HAVE REACHED 10 TO
15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. OTHER TAF SITES ARE BELOW 15 KTS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT THEN BEGIN INCREASING AFTER 15Z AND REACH
VALUES SIMILAR OR A COUPLE OF KTS FASTER THAN TODAY AFTER 18Z. PERRY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH 9 PM.
HOWEVER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT WIDESPREAD.  I CONSIDERED
DROPPING THE WARNING BUT DECIDE AGAINST THIS AS THERE ARE SOME
OBSERVATIONS MEETING CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER MARGINAL
SITUATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.  IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
RH`S AROUND 15-25 PERCENT IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
SURROUNDING VALLEYS. ANOTHER FIRE CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
TONIGHT.  THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LAL`S WILL BE 2-3 IN
FAR SOUTHERN 642 OVER NORTHERN HARNEY COUNTY TONIGHT.  THERE MAY
ALSO BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN BAKER AND
WALLOWA COUNTY (FIRE ZONE 645).  SURFACE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ARE LIMITED...SO BELIEVE IT WILL PRIMARILY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO NOT WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  84  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  66  85  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  61  88  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  58  81  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  62  86  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  61  79  56  83 /   0   0  10   0
RDM  48  80  41  82 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  50  80  49  80 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  54  84  47  85 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  63  81  60  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ639-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83




000
FXUS66 KPDT 042310 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
410 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. COMBINED THEY
ARE PRODUCING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
PIECE OF ENERGY IS BREAKING AWAY FROM THE COASTAL LOW AND WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ITS PATH CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ADD A LITTLE KICK TO THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EASTERN DESCHUTES COUNTY TO WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING SOME COOLER DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 5 TO 10 DEGREES. ON THURSDAY THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
THE COOL DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. BY FRIDAY THE FLAT RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION BUT THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN MOVING INLAND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COULD REACH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.





.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE AN
UPPER LOW HEADING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A WEAK WAVE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON SOUTH OF MADRAS AND IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THAT WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND ENDING UP OFF THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ON MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ASHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA
ON TUESDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A TROUGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL CARRY
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND ALONG WITH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL GIVE CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE
CASCADES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING. SUNDAY WILL
SEE GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND INTO IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED AT 7000-
10000 FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AFFECTING
KRDM, KBDN AND KYKM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN DESCHUTES COUNTY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT APPROACH
ANY TAF SITES. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REACHED 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KDLS AND KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN HAVE REACHED 10 TO
15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. OTHER TAF SITES ARE BELOW 15 KTS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT THEN BEGIN INCREASING AFTER 15Z AND REACH
VALUES SIMILAR OR A COUPLE OF KTS FASTER THAN TODAY AFTER 18Z. PERRY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH 9 PM.
HOWEVER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT WIDESPREAD.  I CONSIDERED
DROPPING THE WARNING BUT DECIDE AGAINST THIS AS THERE ARE SOME
OBSERVATIONS MEETING CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER MARGINAL
SITUATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.  IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
RH`S AROUND 15-25 PERCENT IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
SURROUNDING VALLEYS. ANOTHER FIRE CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
TONIGHT.  THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LAL`S WILL BE 2-3 IN
FAR SOUTHERN 642 OVER NORTHERN HARNEY COUNTY TONIGHT.  THERE MAY
ALSO BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN BAKER AND
WALLOWA COUNTY (FIRE ZONE 645).  SURFACE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ARE LIMITED...SO BELIEVE IT WILL PRIMARILY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO NOT WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  84  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  66  85  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  61  88  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  58  81  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  62  86  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  61  79  56  83 /   0   0  10   0
RDM  48  80  41  82 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  50  80  49  80 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  54  84  47  85 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  63  81  60  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ639-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83



000
FXUS66 KPDT 042310 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
410 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. COMBINED THEY
ARE PRODUCING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
PIECE OF ENERGY IS BREAKING AWAY FROM THE COASTAL LOW AND WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ITS PATH CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ADD A LITTLE KICK TO THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EASTERN DESCHUTES COUNTY TO WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING SOME COOLER DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 5 TO 10 DEGREES. ON THURSDAY THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
THE COOL DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. BY FRIDAY THE FLAT RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION BUT THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN MOVING INLAND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COULD REACH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.





.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE AN
UPPER LOW HEADING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A WEAK WAVE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON SOUTH OF MADRAS AND IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THAT WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND ENDING UP OFF THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ON MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ASHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA
ON TUESDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A TROUGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL CARRY
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND ALONG WITH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL GIVE CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE
CASCADES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING. SUNDAY WILL
SEE GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND INTO IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED AT 7000-
10000 FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AFFECTING
KRDM, KBDN AND KYKM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN DESCHUTES COUNTY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT APPROACH
ANY TAF SITES. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REACHED 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KDLS AND KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN HAVE REACHED 10 TO
15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. OTHER TAF SITES ARE BELOW 15 KTS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT THEN BEGIN INCREASING AFTER 15Z AND REACH
VALUES SIMILAR OR A COUPLE OF KTS FASTER THAN TODAY AFTER 18Z. PERRY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH 9 PM.
HOWEVER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT WIDESPREAD.  I CONSIDERED
DROPPING THE WARNING BUT DECIDE AGAINST THIS AS THERE ARE SOME
OBSERVATIONS MEETING CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER MARGINAL
SITUATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.  IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
RH`S AROUND 15-25 PERCENT IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
SURROUNDING VALLEYS. ANOTHER FIRE CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
TONIGHT.  THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LAL`S WILL BE 2-3 IN
FAR SOUTHERN 642 OVER NORTHERN HARNEY COUNTY TONIGHT.  THERE MAY
ALSO BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN BAKER AND
WALLOWA COUNTY (FIRE ZONE 645).  SURFACE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ARE LIMITED...SO BELIEVE IT WILL PRIMARILY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO NOT WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  84  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  66  85  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  61  88  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  58  81  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  62  86  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  61  79  56  83 /   0   0  10   0
RDM  48  80  41  82 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  50  80  49  80 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  54  84  47  85 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  63  81  60  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ639-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83




000
FXUS66 KMFR 042145
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
245 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY
NEAR SUMMER RIM.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL RIDGES WITH A
CHETCO EFFECT BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE BROOKINGS AREA.
LATE THURSDAY, EXPECT AN UPPER LOW TO SHIFT INTO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALFIORNIA THEN MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INLAND EXPECT SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIRTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN SOUTHERN OREGON.

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WEST AT LEAST THROUGH THUS WEEKEND AS DAYTIME NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS. OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY MAY BRING LESS SMOKE TO
THE CASCADES BUT INCREASED SMOKE TO THE CURRY COAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVES DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THEN ON
SUNDAY WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH AND A RIDGE
STRENGTHENING INLAND, EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
THE WESTERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN OREGON EAST INTO THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
ON SUNDAY AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MAY CUTOFF AND BRING A CUTOFF
LOW TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ON WHETHER A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WHERE
IT MAY BE POSITIONED.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
IFR REMAIN OFF SHORE EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS NEAR
BROOKINGS...THEN LOW LEVEL STRATUS RETURNS TO THE COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. FOR THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS, AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR VSBYS IN
SMOKE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTH WEST FLOW WILL HELP
KEEP RBG IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE CASCADES EAST
AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY NE INTO THE CASCADES AND KLAMATH/LAKE
COUNTIES. /SMITH

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE AT THAT
TIME. SPILDE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. WHILE THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW A SWATH OF INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM
THE CASCADES EAST IN OREGON, THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR
PRECIPITATION FIELDS ARE DEPICTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER AREA OVER LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF A
CONVERGENCE OF SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY,
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY,
AND SOME JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THESE FACTORS, WHILE EXISTING ONLY A
SHORT TIME OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY, MAY LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT
FARTHER EAST, AND THEREFORE NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF FIREFIGHTING
RESOURCES, AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ABOVE AREAS. SOME
STORMS MAY BEGIN DRY, BUT SHOULD TREND WETTER AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. UNTIL THEN, GUSTY WINDS ARE OF PRIMARY CONCERN. OVERALL,
LIGHTING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS STARTS, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE IGNITION RATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND NO
OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN,
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE PERIODS OF MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS RIDGE LINES AT
VARYING TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO BE AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC



000
FXUS66 KMFR 042145
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
245 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY
NEAR SUMMER RIM.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL RIDGES WITH A
CHETCO EFFECT BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE BROOKINGS AREA.
LATE THURSDAY, EXPECT AN UPPER LOW TO SHIFT INTO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALFIORNIA THEN MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INLAND EXPECT SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIRTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN SOUTHERN OREGON.

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WEST AT LEAST THROUGH THUS WEEKEND AS DAYTIME NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS. OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY MAY BRING LESS SMOKE TO
THE CASCADES BUT INCREASED SMOKE TO THE CURRY COAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVES DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THEN ON
SUNDAY WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH AND A RIDGE
STRENGTHENING INLAND, EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
THE WESTERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN OREGON EAST INTO THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
ON SUNDAY AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MAY CUTOFF AND BRING A CUTOFF
LOW TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ON WHETHER A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WHERE
IT MAY BE POSITIONED.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
IFR REMAIN OFF SHORE EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS NEAR
BROOKINGS...THEN LOW LEVEL STRATUS RETURNS TO THE COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. FOR THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS, AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR VSBYS IN
SMOKE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTH WEST FLOW WILL HELP
KEEP RBG IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE CASCADES EAST
AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY NE INTO THE CASCADES AND KLAMATH/LAKE
COUNTIES. /SMITH

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE AT THAT
TIME. SPILDE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. WHILE THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW A SWATH OF INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM
THE CASCADES EAST IN OREGON, THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR
PRECIPITATION FIELDS ARE DEPICTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER AREA OVER LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF A
CONVERGENCE OF SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY,
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY,
AND SOME JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THESE FACTORS, WHILE EXISTING ONLY A
SHORT TIME OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY, MAY LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT
FARTHER EAST, AND THEREFORE NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF FIREFIGHTING
RESOURCES, AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ABOVE AREAS. SOME
STORMS MAY BEGIN DRY, BUT SHOULD TREND WETTER AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. UNTIL THEN, GUSTY WINDS ARE OF PRIMARY CONCERN. OVERALL,
LIGHTING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS STARTS, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE IGNITION RATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND NO
OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN,
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE PERIODS OF MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS RIDGE LINES AT
VARYING TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO BE AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KPQR 042132
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
231 PM PDT TUE AUG  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN B.C. EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE AND EVEN SAG A
BIT MORE SOUTH OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE TO AT LEAST THE NORTH COAST
AREAS AT TIMES. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR A BIT OF A WARM UP...FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SHOWERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED IN B.C. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON.
THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND ONTO
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ON THE NORTH
COAST AND IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES UNDER THE CYCLONIC
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS SOME...AND
REINFORCING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS PAINT SOME QPF NEAR THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN SOME INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT LINGERS INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BROKEN CIGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING THE MID OR UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH...80 TO 85 NEAR
EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME LINGERING ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY...AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND...BUT MAY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTH.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH THE WEAK UPPER
RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW STARTS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY.
INLAND MAY NOT SEE ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...BUT SOME MARINE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN THICKENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE
COASTLINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF ALASKA WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS STILL ARE STILL TRYING TO WORK OUT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN. GFS TODAY IS BRINGING TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH BRINGS THE
RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. THIS PROMOTES A BETTER CHANCE THAT ALL OF OUR
AREA WILL SEE SOME RAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA FOR NOW. DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS ANY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MORNING STRATUS HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION LEAVING ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST AND
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. MVFR MARINE STRATUS LOOKS
TO RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND
VSBY POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...SO SUSPECT MARINE STATUS WILL
FILTER INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND PUSH FURTHER UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO THE PORTLAND METRO
TERMINALS BETWEEN 11-17Z. SCATTERED STRATUS MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE A REPEAT OF
TODAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS AROUND
2000 FT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12-16Z. VFR RETURNS AFTER 18Z. /64
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WHICH
WILL HELP MAINTAIN OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS
AND PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. AS SUCH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MARGINAL
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AND MAY WARRANT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES...WITH
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY LIKELY MEETING CRITERIA.

LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SERIES OF
DISSIPATING FRONTS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 042132
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
231 PM PDT TUE AUG  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN B.C. EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE AND EVEN SAG A
BIT MORE SOUTH OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE TO AT LEAST THE NORTH COAST
AREAS AT TIMES. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
FOR A BIT OF A WARM UP...FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SHOWERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED IN B.C. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON.
THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND ONTO
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ON THE NORTH
COAST AND IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES UNDER THE CYCLONIC
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS SOME...AND
REINFORCING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS PAINT SOME QPF NEAR THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN SOME INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT LINGERS INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BROKEN CIGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING THE MID OR UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH...80 TO 85 NEAR
EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME LINGERING ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY...AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND...BUT MAY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTH.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH THE WEAK UPPER
RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW STARTS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY.
INLAND MAY NOT SEE ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...BUT SOME MARINE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN THICKENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE
COASTLINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDER NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF ALASKA WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS STILL ARE STILL TRYING TO WORK OUT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN. GFS TODAY IS BRINGING TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH BRINGS THE
RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. THIS PROMOTES A BETTER CHANCE THAT ALL OF OUR
AREA WILL SEE SOME RAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA FOR NOW. DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS ANY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MORNING STRATUS HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION LEAVING ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST AND
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. MVFR MARINE STRATUS LOOKS
TO RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND
VSBY POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...SO SUSPECT MARINE STATUS WILL
FILTER INTO THE COASTAL GAPS AND PUSH FURTHER UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO THE PORTLAND METRO
TERMINALS BETWEEN 11-17Z. SCATTERED STRATUS MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE A REPEAT OF
TODAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS AROUND
2000 FT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12-16Z. VFR RETURNS AFTER 18Z. /64
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WHICH
WILL HELP MAINTAIN OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS
AND PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. AS SUCH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MARGINAL
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AND MAY WARRANT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES...WITH
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY LIKELY MEETING CRITERIA.

LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SERIES OF
DISSIPATING FRONTS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 042130
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. COMBINED THEY
ARE PRODUCING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
PIECE OF ENERGY IS BREAKING AWAY FROM THE COASTAL LOW AND WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ITS PATH CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ADD A LITTLE KICK TO THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EASTERN DESCHUTES COUNTY TO WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING SOME COOLER DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 5 TO 10 DEGREES. ON THURSDAY THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
THE COOL DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. BY FRIDAY THE FLAT RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION BUT THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN MOVING INLAND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COULD REACH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.





.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE AN
UPPER LOW HEADING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A WEAK WAVE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON SOUTH OF MADRAS AND IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THAT WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND ENDING UP OFF THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ON MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ASHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA
ON TUESDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A TROUGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL CARRY
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND ALONG WITH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL GIVE CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE
CASCADES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING. SUNDAY WILL
SEE GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND INTO IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE
SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOP AT 7000-10000 FEET AGL IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING KRDM, KBDN, KALW AND POSSIBLY
KPDT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN DESCHUTES
COUNTY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BUT
SHOULD NOT APPROACH ANY TAF SITES. SMOKE FROM A FIRE IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS MAY BE CARRIED INTO KALW BY NIGHT TIME PREVAILING SE
WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT MOST TAF SITES. KPDT WITH REACH 15 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND KDLS WILL REACH 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AFTER 16Z. PERRY


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH 9 PM.
HOWEVER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT WIDESPREAD.  I CONSIDERED
DROPPING THE WARNING BUT DECIDE AGAINST THIS AS THERE ARE SOME
OBSERVATIONS MEETING CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER MARGINAL
SITUATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.  IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
RH`S AROUND 15-25 PERCENT IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
SURROUNDING VALLEYS. ANOTHER FIRE CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
TONIGHT.  THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LAL`S WILL BE 2-3 IN
FAR SOUTHERN 642 OVER NORTHERN HARNEY COUNTY TONIGHT.  THERE MAY
ALSO BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN BAKER AND
WALLOWA COUNTY (FIRE ZONE 645).  SURFACE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ARE LIMITED...SO BELIEVE IT WILL PRIMARILY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO NOT WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  84  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  66  85  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  61  88  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  58  81  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  62  86  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  61  79  56  83 /   0   0  10   0
RDM  48  80  41  82 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  50  80  49  80 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  54  84  47  85 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  63  81  60  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ639-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83




000
FXUS66 KPDT 042130
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. COMBINED THEY
ARE PRODUCING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
PIECE OF ENERGY IS BREAKING AWAY FROM THE COASTAL LOW AND WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ITS PATH CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ADD A LITTLE KICK TO THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EASTERN DESCHUTES COUNTY TO WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING SOME COOLER DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 5 TO 10 DEGREES. ON THURSDAY THIS LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP
THE COOL DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. BY FRIDAY THE FLAT RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION BUT THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN MOVING INLAND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COULD REACH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.





.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE AN
UPPER LOW HEADING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A WEAK WAVE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON SOUTH OF MADRAS AND IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THAT WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SINK SOUTH
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND ENDING UP OFF THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA ON MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ASHORE OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA
ON TUESDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A TROUGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL CARRY
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND ALONG WITH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL GIVE CENTRAL OREGON, THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE
CASCADES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING. SUNDAY WILL
SEE GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND INTO IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE
SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOP AT 7000-10000 FEET AGL IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING KRDM, KBDN, KALW AND POSSIBLY
KPDT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN DESCHUTES
COUNTY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BUT
SHOULD NOT APPROACH ANY TAF SITES. SMOKE FROM A FIRE IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS MAY BE CARRIED INTO KALW BY NIGHT TIME PREVAILING SE
WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT MOST TAF SITES. KPDT WITH REACH 15 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND KDLS WILL REACH 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AFTER 16Z. PERRY


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH 9 PM.
HOWEVER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT WIDESPREAD.  I CONSIDERED
DROPPING THE WARNING BUT DECIDE AGAINST THIS AS THERE ARE SOME
OBSERVATIONS MEETING CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER MARGINAL
SITUATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.  IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
RH`S AROUND 15-25 PERCENT IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
SURROUNDING VALLEYS. ANOTHER FIRE CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
TONIGHT.  THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND LAL`S WILL BE 2-3 IN
FAR SOUTHERN 642 OVER NORTHERN HARNEY COUNTY TONIGHT.  THERE MAY
ALSO BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN BAKER AND
WALLOWA COUNTY (FIRE ZONE 645).  SURFACE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ARE LIMITED...SO BELIEVE IT WILL PRIMARILY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO NOT WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  84  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  66  85  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  61  88  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  58  81  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  62  86  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  61  79  56  83 /   0   0  10   0
RDM  48  80  41  82 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  50  80  49  80 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  54  84  47  85 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  63  81  60  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ639-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/83/83



000
FXUS65 KBOI 042029
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
229 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT AND WED. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH
IS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL...AND WHICH WOULD MAKE TWO NIGHTS IN A ROW
FOR MANY FOLKS IN THE BOISE AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST TOMORROW...RESULTING IN DECREASING POPS IN SE OREGON
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS SW IDAHO IN THE EVENING...
POPS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE WED NIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RELATIVELY DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL COME IN THU...BRINGING A DRY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BOTH WED AND THU...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING CONSIDERABLY FROM
TONIGHT TO WED NIGHT. TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AROUND...LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WED NIGHT...WITH DRY AIR AND CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW COULD GUST 35 TO
45 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS. LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A HAZARD WITH THUNDERSTORMS...
REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF RAIN...HAIL...OR WIND.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OFF OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER...AND SPREAD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND BEEN PARTIAL ABSORBED
INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LOW OFF OF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. NONETHELESS...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
HAVE SHIFTED EAST BY THIS TIME SO MOST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM. BY SUNDAY...UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND THE AREA WILL
TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LEADING TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION. LEFT POPS TO MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CLIMO FOR NOW. TEMPS LINGER RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 04/23Z...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF
THE TREASURE VALLEY...THEN SPREADING THROUGH SOUTH TO NORTH TO THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 05/12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06/03Z. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS...AND
VARIABLE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 45 KTS NEAR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WSW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ400-401-420-424.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY ORZ637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....EP/JC
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS66 KPDT 041831 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1130 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH IT WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST. AS SUCH WILL SEE THE UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY TO WESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR TO CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGELY RELEGATED
TO PORTIONS OF THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, THE JOHN DAY BASIN,
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY, ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND WALLOWA COUNTY. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS MAY SLOP OVER INTO WESTERN
KITTITAS COUNTY FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON. SHOULD SEE BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS AND ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN BOTH DAYS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE
THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY, BUT AN INCREASE IN MARINE AIR SHOULD CAUSE
A FURTHER COOL DOWN OF 5-8 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN SOUTHEAST BC WILL MOVE EAST OF ROCKIES PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FORECAST AREA, WHICH GIVES WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND
SINKING AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER REGION FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PART OF CENTRAL
OREGON FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
DESCHUTES COUNTY AND ALSO IN SOUTHERN CROOK COUNTY. FRIDAY NIGHT THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW BRINGS INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WITH DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS TO IDAHO. OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IS ON THE WANE AS THE LOW MOVES INTO IDAHO/MONTANA
FOR DECREASING POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MORE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOP AT 7000-
10000 FEET AGL IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING
KRDM, KBDN, KALW AND POSSIBLY KPDT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN DESCHUTES COUNTY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BUT SHOULD NOT APPROACH ANY TAF SITES. SMOKE
FROM A FIRE IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS MAY BE CARRIED INTO KALW BY NIGHT
TIME PREVAILING SE WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 18 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT MOST TAF SITES. KPDT
WITH REACH 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND KDLS WILL REACH 20
TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING AFTER 16Z. PERRY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND AREAS NEAR THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW RH`S THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THESE WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
CONDITIONS MAY BE SIMILAR. THE DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND
THE WARNING WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
BE LESS TODAY, WITH ONLY PORTIONS OF OREGON ZONES 640, 642, 644 AND
645 SEEING ISOLATED CELLS. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  91  56  85  53 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  93  63  86  59 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  95  57  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  88  55  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  94  57  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  87  58  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  88  45  82  40 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  88  48  81  48 /  20  10  10   0
GCD  90  50  86  46 /  20  20  10   0
DLS  88  60  81  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...RED FLVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR 8-12Z.
SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS MAY INVADE INTO THE
KALW AREA OVERNIGHT...DUE TO DRAINAGE SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER THE
INVERSION. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  POLANAG
WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ639-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/83/90



000
FXUS66 KMFR 041649 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
949 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED MARINE

.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE LOCATED OFF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA OF CALIFORNIA. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES DURING THE MID AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOP FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ARE IN  WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO THE SISKIYOUS AND INTO THE SOUTHERNMOST
CASCADES IN OREGON AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
CASCADES. GIVEN THE DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASES AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA, EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT SOME CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT, MAINLY EAST OF THE CASCADES.

HAVE UPDATED FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING
THE COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND IN THE SISKIYOUS.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...BUT WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME AREAS THIS
EVENING. OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND
SISKIYOUS SOUTH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY NE
INTO THE CASCADES AND KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 930 AM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AND REMAIN MODERATE TO STEEP ACROSS OUR
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
WINDS AND SEAS...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...BUT EXTENDING CLOSER TO SHORE AND INTO THE
NORTHERN MARINE ZONES LATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY
REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ABATE AT THAT TIME. -MSC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BLM LIGHTNING DETECTED ANOTHER APPROXIMATE 950 CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE OCCURRED EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.
FORTUNATELY, AS EVENING SET IN, THESE STORMS SLOWED AND LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL FROM THEM. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES REPORTED 0.10 TO 0.50" OF RAIN, WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF NEARLY AN INCH IN CHILOQUIN AND ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF UPPER KLAMATH LAKE.

OVER THE LAST 4 DAYS WE HAVE HAD OVER 2600 LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE MEDFORD FIRE WEATHER ZONE AREAS. MANY WILDFIRES HAVE
BEEN FOUND WITH MANY OF THEM LESS THAN 10 ACRES. HOWEVER, THE
STOUTS CREEK FIRE NEAR TILLER AND MILO, THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE
NEAR GLIDE, THE EAST KELSEY FIRE NORTHWEST OF GALICE, 3 FIRES IN
AND NEAR NORTHWESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, THE FROG FIRE IN WESTERN
MODOC COUNTY, AND 8 LARGE FIRES OUT OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE AREAS
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE ALL OVER 10 ACRES AND ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SMOKE AND HAZE IN
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INPUT AND SCRUTINIZED IN THE FORECAST OUT
THROUGH DAY 3, THURSDAY, BASED ON OUTPUT PRIMARILY FROM THE BLUE
SKY 4KM NWRMC PACIFIC NORTHWEST 72 HOUR FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM
AIRFIRE. IN SHORT, AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ACTIVE FIRES ON THE
WEST SIDE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SMOKY AND HAZY CONDITIONS AS
WILL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FROG
FIRE AND IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

AS FAR AS WEATHER GOES TODAY, WE`RE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WE EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE CRESTS SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS SOMEWHAT
IMPRESSIVE AT 500MB AND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE
LATER AND MUTED COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST 2 DAYS.
FIRST, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
FOR OUR AREA. SECOND, SMOKE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS MUTED
DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THE LAST 2 DAYS,
AND EXPECT SMOKE TO KEEP STORMS ISOLATED THERE AGAIN TODAY. BOTH
THE GFS20 AND NAM12 INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESSER IN
THE AREA TODAY, AND 700MB COMPUTED CAPE IS SUBSTANTIALLY LESS
TODAY IN DURATION AND MAGNITUDE THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. WE DO
STILL EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
SCATTERED FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS THIS EVENING IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE AT 10-15 KNOTS, BUT MAY SLOW ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING. WFAS.NET INDICATES FUELS ARE LESS RECEPTIVE THAN
THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO IN THAT AREA AND SUSPECT THIS ALONG WITH
SOME RAIN WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD KEEP NEW FIRE STARTS LIMITED
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. ALL TOLD, SUSPECT LIGHTNING TO BE 400
STRIKES OR FEWER TODAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WE`LL CATCH A BREAK FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTION. FRIDAY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARRIVE FROM
THE SOUTH AGAIN. MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY WITH DETAILS OF
THIS. ALL IN ALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR DAILY NORMALS THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BTL

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... FLOW
ALOFT IS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRIER AND
LESS UNSTABLE STABLE CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST AS A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL STABILIZE THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY  BUT
WARMER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC/BPN/MSC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 041649 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
949 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED MARINE

.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE LOCATED OFF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA OF CALIFORNIA. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES DURING THE MID AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOP FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ARE IN  WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO THE SISKIYOUS AND INTO THE SOUTHERNMOST
CASCADES IN OREGON AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
CASCADES. GIVEN THE DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASES AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA, EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT SOME CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT, MAINLY EAST OF THE CASCADES.

HAVE UPDATED FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING
THE COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND IN THE SISKIYOUS.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...BUT WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME AREAS THIS
EVENING. OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND
SISKIYOUS SOUTH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY NE
INTO THE CASCADES AND KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 930 AM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AND REMAIN MODERATE TO STEEP ACROSS OUR
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
WINDS AND SEAS...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS PRIMARILY IN THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...BUT EXTENDING CLOSER TO SHORE AND INTO THE
NORTHERN MARINE ZONES LATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY
REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ABATE AT THAT TIME. -MSC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BLM LIGHTNING DETECTED ANOTHER APPROXIMATE 950 CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE OCCURRED EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.
FORTUNATELY, AS EVENING SET IN, THESE STORMS SLOWED AND LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL FROM THEM. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES REPORTED 0.10 TO 0.50" OF RAIN, WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF NEARLY AN INCH IN CHILOQUIN AND ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF UPPER KLAMATH LAKE.

OVER THE LAST 4 DAYS WE HAVE HAD OVER 2600 LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE MEDFORD FIRE WEATHER ZONE AREAS. MANY WILDFIRES HAVE
BEEN FOUND WITH MANY OF THEM LESS THAN 10 ACRES. HOWEVER, THE
STOUTS CREEK FIRE NEAR TILLER AND MILO, THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE
NEAR GLIDE, THE EAST KELSEY FIRE NORTHWEST OF GALICE, 3 FIRES IN
AND NEAR NORTHWESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, THE FROG FIRE IN WESTERN
MODOC COUNTY, AND 8 LARGE FIRES OUT OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE AREAS
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE ALL OVER 10 ACRES AND ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SMOKE AND HAZE IN
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INPUT AND SCRUTINIZED IN THE FORECAST OUT
THROUGH DAY 3, THURSDAY, BASED ON OUTPUT PRIMARILY FROM THE BLUE
SKY 4KM NWRMC PACIFIC NORTHWEST 72 HOUR FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM
AIRFIRE. IN SHORT, AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ACTIVE FIRES ON THE
WEST SIDE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SMOKY AND HAZY CONDITIONS AS
WILL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FROG
FIRE AND IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

AS FAR AS WEATHER GOES TODAY, WE`RE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WE EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE CRESTS SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS SOMEWHAT
IMPRESSIVE AT 500MB AND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE
LATER AND MUTED COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST 2 DAYS.
FIRST, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
FOR OUR AREA. SECOND, SMOKE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS MUTED
DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THE LAST 2 DAYS,
AND EXPECT SMOKE TO KEEP STORMS ISOLATED THERE AGAIN TODAY. BOTH
THE GFS20 AND NAM12 INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESSER IN
THE AREA TODAY, AND 700MB COMPUTED CAPE IS SUBSTANTIALLY LESS
TODAY IN DURATION AND MAGNITUDE THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. WE DO
STILL EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
SCATTERED FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS THIS EVENING IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE AT 10-15 KNOTS, BUT MAY SLOW ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING. WFAS.NET INDICATES FUELS ARE LESS RECEPTIVE THAN
THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO IN THAT AREA AND SUSPECT THIS ALONG WITH
SOME RAIN WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD KEEP NEW FIRE STARTS LIMITED
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. ALL TOLD, SUSPECT LIGHTNING TO BE 400
STRIKES OR FEWER TODAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WE`LL CATCH A BREAK FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTION. FRIDAY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARRIVE FROM
THE SOUTH AGAIN. MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY WITH DETAILS OF
THIS. ALL IN ALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR DAILY NORMALS THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BTL

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... FLOW
ALOFT IS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRIER AND
LESS UNSTABLE STABLE CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST AS A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL STABILIZE THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY  BUT
WARMER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC/BPN/MSC



000
FXUS66 KPQR 041622
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
921 AM PDT TUE AUG  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN B.C. EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE AND EVEN SAG A BIT
MORE SOUTH OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND
COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...AND
EVEN A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE TO AT LEAST THE NORTH COAST AREAS AT TIMES.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A BIT OF A
WARM UP...FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MORE CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED IN B.C. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON. THERE IS A
WEAK BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND ONTO THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST...WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
ARE THICKER THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE REACHED THE SOUTH
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND ARE
TRYING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PORTLAND AND
VANCOUVER METRO AREAS. THE CLOUDS IN THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO
AREAS WILL MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY...BUT THE CLOUDS NEAR THE NORTH COASTAL
AREAS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO THIN AND MAY NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR TODAY AS
THE CYCLONIC WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS SOME...AND
REINFORCING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS PAINT SOME QPF NEAR THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN SOME INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT LINGERS INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BROKEN CIGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING THE MID OR UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH...80 TO 85 NEAR
EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME LINGERING ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY...AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND...BUT MAY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTH. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 90S LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT
WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER ON FRIDAY THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALSO INTRODUCES A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE OREGON CASCADES...MAINLY ALONG THE CREST. THE SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURS AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING DOWN OUT OF
ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH OF THIS SYSTEM...CREATING UNCERTAINTY WHICH
SHOULD BECOME RESOLVED AS WE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
IF SYSTEM PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES ALONG THE NORTH COAST...THE LOWER
COLUMBIA RIVER...AND NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE STRATUS ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND NEAR THE GORGE TO
LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CIGS TURNING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH COAST WILL BE SLOWER TO
DISSIPATE...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND THROUGH
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. MVFR MARINE STRATUS WILL RETURN TO
THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...SO SUSPECT MVFR
STRATUS WILL PUSH FURTHER UP THE COLUMBIA AND REACH THE PORTLAND
METRO TERMINALS AFTER 11Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...MARINE STATUS
LOOKS TO PUSH FURTHER UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 14-17Z. /64
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND MAINTAINS THE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITH
OCCASIONAL STEEPER WIND DRIVEN SEAS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST ROUND OF WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS SHOULD ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. THE NEXT MAJOR UPTICK
IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA AND
WE WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND A WEAK FRONT MAY BRIEFLY TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY...
BUT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN. OTHERWISE...WE MAY SEE
NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 041622
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
921 AM PDT TUE AUG  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN B.C. EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE AND EVEN SAG A BIT
MORE SOUTH OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND
COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...AND
EVEN A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE TO AT LEAST THE NORTH COAST AREAS AT TIMES.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A BIT OF A
WARM UP...FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MORE CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED IN B.C. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON. THERE IS A
WEAK BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND ONTO THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST...WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
ARE THICKER THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE REACHED THE SOUTH
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND ARE
TRYING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PORTLAND AND
VANCOUVER METRO AREAS. THE CLOUDS IN THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO
AREAS WILL MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY...BUT THE CLOUDS NEAR THE NORTH COASTAL
AREAS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO THIN AND MAY NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR TODAY AS
THE CYCLONIC WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS SOME...AND
REINFORCING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS PAINT SOME QPF NEAR THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN SOME INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT LINGERS INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BROKEN CIGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING THE MID OR UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH...80 TO 85 NEAR
EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME LINGERING ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY...AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND...BUT MAY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTH. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 90S LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT
WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER ON FRIDAY THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALSO INTRODUCES A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE OREGON CASCADES...MAINLY ALONG THE CREST. THE SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURS AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING DOWN OUT OF
ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH OF THIS SYSTEM...CREATING UNCERTAINTY WHICH
SHOULD BECOME RESOLVED AS WE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
IF SYSTEM PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES ALONG THE NORTH COAST...THE LOWER
COLUMBIA RIVER...AND NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE STRATUS ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND NEAR THE GORGE TO
LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CIGS TURNING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH COAST WILL BE SLOWER TO
DISSIPATE...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND THROUGH
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. MVFR MARINE STRATUS WILL RETURN TO
THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...SO SUSPECT MVFR
STRATUS WILL PUSH FURTHER UP THE COLUMBIA AND REACH THE PORTLAND
METRO TERMINALS AFTER 11Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...MARINE STATUS
LOOKS TO PUSH FURTHER UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 14-17Z. /64
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND MAINTAINS THE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITH
OCCASIONAL STEEPER WIND DRIVEN SEAS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST ROUND OF WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS SHOULD ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. THE NEXT MAJOR UPTICK
IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA AND
WE WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND A WEAK FRONT MAY BRIEFLY TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY...
BUT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN. OTHERWISE...WE MAY SEE
NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 041622
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
921 AM PDT TUE AUG  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN B.C. EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE AND EVEN SAG A BIT
MORE SOUTH OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND
COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...AND
EVEN A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE TO AT LEAST THE NORTH COAST AREAS AT TIMES.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A BIT OF A
WARM UP...FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MORE CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED IN B.C. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON. THERE IS A
WEAK BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND ONTO THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST...WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
ARE THICKER THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE REACHED THE SOUTH
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND ARE
TRYING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PORTLAND AND
VANCOUVER METRO AREAS. THE CLOUDS IN THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO
AREAS WILL MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY...BUT THE CLOUDS NEAR THE NORTH COASTAL
AREAS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO THIN AND MAY NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR TODAY AS
THE CYCLONIC WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS SOME...AND
REINFORCING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS PAINT SOME QPF NEAR THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN SOME INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT LINGERS INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BROKEN CIGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING THE MID OR UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH...80 TO 85 NEAR
EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME LINGERING ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY...AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND...BUT MAY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTH. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 90S LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT
WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER ON FRIDAY THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALSO INTRODUCES A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE OREGON CASCADES...MAINLY ALONG THE CREST. THE SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURS AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING DOWN OUT OF
ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH OF THIS SYSTEM...CREATING UNCERTAINTY WHICH
SHOULD BECOME RESOLVED AS WE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
IF SYSTEM PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES ALONG THE NORTH COAST...THE LOWER
COLUMBIA RIVER...AND NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE STRATUS ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND NEAR THE GORGE TO
LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CIGS TURNING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH COAST WILL BE SLOWER TO
DISSIPATE...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND THROUGH
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. MVFR MARINE STRATUS WILL RETURN TO
THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...SO SUSPECT MVFR
STRATUS WILL PUSH FURTHER UP THE COLUMBIA AND REACH THE PORTLAND
METRO TERMINALS AFTER 11Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...MARINE STATUS
LOOKS TO PUSH FURTHER UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 14-17Z. /64
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND MAINTAINS THE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITH
OCCASIONAL STEEPER WIND DRIVEN SEAS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST ROUND OF WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS SHOULD ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. THE NEXT MAJOR UPTICK
IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA AND
WE WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND A WEAK FRONT MAY BRIEFLY TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY...
BUT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN. OTHERWISE...WE MAY SEE
NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 041622
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
921 AM PDT TUE AUG  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN B.C. EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE AND EVEN SAG A BIT
MORE SOUTH OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND
COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...AND
EVEN A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE TO AT LEAST THE NORTH COAST AREAS AT TIMES.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A BIT OF A
WARM UP...FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR MORE CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED IN B.C. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON. THERE IS A
WEAK BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND ONTO THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST...WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
ARE THICKER THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE REACHED THE SOUTH
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND THE FAR NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND ARE
TRYING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PORTLAND AND
VANCOUVER METRO AREAS. THE CLOUDS IN THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO
AREAS WILL MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY...BUT THE CLOUDS NEAR THE NORTH COASTAL
AREAS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO THIN AND MAY NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR TODAY AS
THE CYCLONIC WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS SOME...AND
REINFORCING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE
OF LOW CLOUDS AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS PAINT SOME QPF NEAR THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN SOME INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT LINGERS INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BROKEN CIGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING THE MID OR UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH...80 TO 85 NEAR
EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME LINGERING ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY...AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL START
TO REBOUND...BUT MAY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTH. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 90S LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT
WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER ON FRIDAY THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALSO INTRODUCES A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE OREGON CASCADES...MAINLY ALONG THE CREST. THE SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURS AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING DOWN OUT OF
ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH OF THIS SYSTEM...CREATING UNCERTAINTY WHICH
SHOULD BECOME RESOLVED AS WE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
IF SYSTEM PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES ALONG THE NORTH COAST...THE LOWER
COLUMBIA RIVER...AND NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE STRATUS ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND NEAR THE GORGE TO
LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CIGS TURNING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH COAST WILL BE SLOWER TO
DISSIPATE...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND THROUGH
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. MVFR MARINE STRATUS WILL RETURN TO
THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...SO SUSPECT MVFR
STRATUS WILL PUSH FURTHER UP THE COLUMBIA AND REACH THE PORTLAND
METRO TERMINALS AFTER 11Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...MARINE STATUS
LOOKS TO PUSH FURTHER UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 14-17Z. /64
&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND MAINTAINS THE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITH
OCCASIONAL STEEPER WIND DRIVEN SEAS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST ROUND OF WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS SHOULD ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. THE NEXT MAJOR UPTICK
IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA AND
WE WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND A WEAK FRONT MAY BRIEFLY TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY...
BUT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN. OTHERWISE...WE MAY SEE
NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 041608
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1008 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
NOW THAT NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
LATEST MODELS INDICATE CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS CAPE DECREASES SLIGHTLY BUT
BASICALLY EXTENDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS UNUSUAL. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGHER POPS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THEN MOVE NE FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THEN REINTENSIFY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS OVERALL SCENARIO HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE SE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS TREK THROUGH MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL DO AN UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH SMALL CHANGES IN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 04/18Z...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF THE
TREASURE VALLEY...THEN SPREADING THROUGH SOUTH TO NORTH TO THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 05/12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06/03Z. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS...AND
VARIABLE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 45 KTS NEAR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WSW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LINGERING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO AT 4 AM
MDT...EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DYING OUT BY 6
AM MDT. ASIDE FROM THIS CLUSTER...THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT
OF THE REGION BEHIND THE PASSING OF MONDAY/S SHORTWAVE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON
LASTING INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER...THE
MAGIC VALLEY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE BRUNT OF
THE TROUGH WILL COME WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECTING HIGH QPF WITH THIS TROUGH...UP TO 0.1
INCHES IN SOME PLACES...MOSTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AND DROP
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED OVER IDAHO DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
TROUGH OVER ID THURSDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS 4-7F BELOW NORMAL THEN
SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COASTAL CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH ACROSS THE ORE-NV BORDER
WHICH IS FASTER THAN GFS/EC. SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN. CA
LOW HAS 80KT UPPER JET SUPPORT WHICH LIFTS NE ACROSS S IDAHO
SATURDAY MORNING SO NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK...AS ARE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH  LIFTS NE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONG WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO START TO
RETROGRADE FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS
FAVORING NE OREGON. AN OFFSHORE TROUGH AND HOT CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
DOMINATE THE LAST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ400-401-420-424.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY ORZ637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 041608
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1008 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
NOW THAT NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
LATEST MODELS INDICATE CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS CAPE DECREASES SLIGHTLY BUT
BASICALLY EXTENDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS UNUSUAL. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGHER POPS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THEN MOVE NE FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THEN REINTENSIFY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS OVERALL SCENARIO HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE SE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS TREK THROUGH MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL DO AN UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH SMALL CHANGES IN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 04/18Z...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF THE
TREASURE VALLEY...THEN SPREADING THROUGH SOUTH TO NORTH TO THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 05/12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06/03Z. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS...AND
VARIABLE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 45 KTS NEAR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WSW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LINGERING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO AT 4 AM
MDT...EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DYING OUT BY 6
AM MDT. ASIDE FROM THIS CLUSTER...THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT
OF THE REGION BEHIND THE PASSING OF MONDAY/S SHORTWAVE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON
LASTING INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER...THE
MAGIC VALLEY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE BRUNT OF
THE TROUGH WILL COME WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECTING HIGH QPF WITH THIS TROUGH...UP TO 0.1
INCHES IN SOME PLACES...MOSTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AND DROP
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED OVER IDAHO DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
TROUGH OVER ID THURSDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS 4-7F BELOW NORMAL THEN
SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COASTAL CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH ACROSS THE ORE-NV BORDER
WHICH IS FASTER THAN GFS/EC. SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN. CA
LOW HAS 80KT UPPER JET SUPPORT WHICH LIFTS NE ACROSS S IDAHO
SATURDAY MORNING SO NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK...AS ARE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH  LIFTS NE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONG WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO START TO
RETROGRADE FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS
FAVORING NE OREGON. AN OFFSHORE TROUGH AND HOT CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
DOMINATE THE LAST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ400-401-420-424.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY ORZ637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 041608
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1008 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
NOW THAT NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
LATEST MODELS INDICATE CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS CAPE DECREASES SLIGHTLY BUT
BASICALLY EXTENDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS UNUSUAL. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGHER POPS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THEN MOVE NE FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THEN REINTENSIFY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS OVERALL SCENARIO HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE SE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS TREK THROUGH MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL DO AN UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH SMALL CHANGES IN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 04/18Z...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF THE
TREASURE VALLEY...THEN SPREADING THROUGH SOUTH TO NORTH TO THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 05/12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06/03Z. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS...AND
VARIABLE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 45 KTS NEAR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WSW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LINGERING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO AT 4 AM
MDT...EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DYING OUT BY 6
AM MDT. ASIDE FROM THIS CLUSTER...THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT
OF THE REGION BEHIND THE PASSING OF MONDAY/S SHORTWAVE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON
LASTING INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER...THE
MAGIC VALLEY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE BRUNT OF
THE TROUGH WILL COME WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECTING HIGH QPF WITH THIS TROUGH...UP TO 0.1
INCHES IN SOME PLACES...MOSTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AND DROP
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED OVER IDAHO DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
TROUGH OVER ID THURSDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS 4-7F BELOW NORMAL THEN
SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COASTAL CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH ACROSS THE ORE-NV BORDER
WHICH IS FASTER THAN GFS/EC. SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN. CA
LOW HAS 80KT UPPER JET SUPPORT WHICH LIFTS NE ACROSS S IDAHO
SATURDAY MORNING SO NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK...AS ARE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH  LIFTS NE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONG WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO START TO
RETROGRADE FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS
FAVORING NE OREGON. AN OFFSHORE TROUGH AND HOT CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
DOMINATE THE LAST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ400-401-420-424.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY ORZ637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 041608
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1008 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
NOW THAT NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
LATEST MODELS INDICATE CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS CAPE DECREASES SLIGHTLY BUT
BASICALLY EXTENDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS UNUSUAL. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGHER POPS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THEN MOVE NE FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THEN REINTENSIFY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS OVERALL SCENARIO HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE SE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS TREK THROUGH MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL DO AN UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH SMALL CHANGES IN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 04/18Z...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF THE
TREASURE VALLEY...THEN SPREADING THROUGH SOUTH TO NORTH TO THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 05/12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06/03Z. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS...AND
VARIABLE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 45 KTS NEAR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WSW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LINGERING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO AT 4 AM
MDT...EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DYING OUT BY 6
AM MDT. ASIDE FROM THIS CLUSTER...THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT
OF THE REGION BEHIND THE PASSING OF MONDAY/S SHORTWAVE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON
LASTING INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER...THE
MAGIC VALLEY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE BRUNT OF
THE TROUGH WILL COME WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECTING HIGH QPF WITH THIS TROUGH...UP TO 0.1
INCHES IN SOME PLACES...MOSTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AND DROP
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED OVER IDAHO DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
TROUGH OVER ID THURSDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS 4-7F BELOW NORMAL THEN
SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COASTAL CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH ACROSS THE ORE-NV BORDER
WHICH IS FASTER THAN GFS/EC. SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN. CA
LOW HAS 80KT UPPER JET SUPPORT WHICH LIFTS NE ACROSS S IDAHO
SATURDAY MORNING SO NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK...AS ARE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH  LIFTS NE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONG WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO START TO
RETROGRADE FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS
FAVORING NE OREGON. AN OFFSHORE TROUGH AND HOT CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
DOMINATE THE LAST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ400-401-420-424.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY ORZ637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM



000
FXUS66 KMFR 041551
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
851 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE LOCATED OFF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA OF CALIFORNIA. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES DURING THE MID AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOP FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ARE IN  WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO THE SISKIYOUS AND INTO THE SOUTHERNMOST
CASCADES IN OREGON AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
CASCADES. GIVEN THE DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASES AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA, EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT SOME CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT, MAINLY EAST OF THE CASCADES.

HAVE UPDATED FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING
THE COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND IN THE SISKIYOUS.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...BUT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME
AREAS THIS EVENING. OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS IN SMOKE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY NE INTO THE CASCADES AND KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES.
/FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
TODAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN STRENGTHEN
FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
ABATE AT THAT TIME. /FB


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BLM LIGHTNING DETECTED ANOTHER APPROXIMATE 950 CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE OCCURRED EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.
FORTUNATELY, AS EVENING SET IN, THESE STORMS SLOWED AND LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL FROM THEM. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES REPORTED 0.10 TO 0.50" OF RAIN, WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF NEARLY AN INCH IN CHILOQUIN AND ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF UPPER KLAMATH LAKE.

OVER THE LAST 4 DAYS WE HAVE HAD OVER 2600 LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE MEDFORD FIRE WEATHER ZONE AREAS. MANY WILDFIRES HAVE
BEEN FOUND WITH MANY OF THEM LESS THAN 10 ACRES. HOWEVER, THE
STOUTS CREEK FIRE NEAR TILLER AND MILO, THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE
NEAR GLIDE, THE EAST KELSEY FIRE NORTHWEST OF GALICE, 3 FIRES IN
AND NEAR NORTHWESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, THE FROG FIRE IN WESTERN
MODOC COUNTY, AND 8 LARGE FIRES OUT OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE AREAS
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE ALL OVER 10 ACRES AND ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SMOKE AND HAZE IN
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INPUT AND SCRUTINIZED IN THE FORECAST OUT
THROUGH DAY 3, THURSDAY, BASED ON OUTPUT PRIMARILY FROM THE BLUE
SKY 4KM NWRMC PACIFIC NORTHWEST 72 HOUR FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM
AIRFIRE. IN SHORT, AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ACTIVE FIRES ON THE
WEST SIDE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SMOKY AND HAZY CONDITIONS AS
WILL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FROG
FIRE AND IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

AS FAR AS WEATHER GOES TODAY, WE`RE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WE EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE CRESTS SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS SOMEWHAT
IMPRESSIVE AT 500MB AND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE
LATER AND MUTED COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST 2 DAYS.
FIRST, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
FOR OUR AREA. SECOND, SMOKE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS MUTED
DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THE LAST 2 DAYS,
AND EXPECT SMOKE TO KEEP STORMS ISOLATED THERE AGAIN TODAY. BOTH
THE GFS20 AND NAM12 INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESSER IN
THE AREA TODAY, AND 700MB COMPUTED CAPE IS SUBSTANTIALLY LESS
TODAY IN DURATION AND MAGNITUDE THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. WE DO
STILL EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
SCATTERED FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS THIS EVENING IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE AT 10-15 KNOTS, BUT MAY SLOW ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING. WFAS.NET INDICATES FUELS ARE LESS RECEPTIVE THAN
THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO IN THAT AREA AND SUSPECT THIS ALONG WITH
SOME RAIN WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD KEEP NEW FIRE STARTS LIMITED
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. ALL TOLD, SUSPECT LIGHTNING TO BE 400
STRIKES OR FEWER TODAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WE`LL CATCH A BREAK FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTION. FRIDAY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARRIVE FROM
THE SOUTH AGAIN. MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY WITH DETAILS OF
THIS. ALL IN ALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR DAILY NORMALS THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BTL

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... FLOW
ALOFT IS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRIER AND
LESS UNSTABLE STABLE CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST AS A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL STABILIZE THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY  BUT
WARMER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 041551
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
851 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE LOCATED OFF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA OF CALIFORNIA. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES DURING THE MID AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOP FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ARE IN  WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO THE SISKIYOUS AND INTO THE SOUTHERNMOST
CASCADES IN OREGON AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE
CASCADES. GIVEN THE DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASES AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA, EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT SOME CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT, MAINLY EAST OF THE CASCADES.

HAVE UPDATED FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING
THE COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND IN THE SISKIYOUS.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...BUT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME
AREAS THIS EVENING. OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS IN SMOKE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY NE INTO THE CASCADES AND KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES.
/FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
TODAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN STRENGTHEN
FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
ABATE AT THAT TIME. /FB


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BLM LIGHTNING DETECTED ANOTHER APPROXIMATE 950 CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE OCCURRED EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.
FORTUNATELY, AS EVENING SET IN, THESE STORMS SLOWED AND LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL FROM THEM. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES REPORTED 0.10 TO 0.50" OF RAIN, WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF NEARLY AN INCH IN CHILOQUIN AND ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF UPPER KLAMATH LAKE.

OVER THE LAST 4 DAYS WE HAVE HAD OVER 2600 LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE MEDFORD FIRE WEATHER ZONE AREAS. MANY WILDFIRES HAVE
BEEN FOUND WITH MANY OF THEM LESS THAN 10 ACRES. HOWEVER, THE
STOUTS CREEK FIRE NEAR TILLER AND MILO, THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE
NEAR GLIDE, THE EAST KELSEY FIRE NORTHWEST OF GALICE, 3 FIRES IN
AND NEAR NORTHWESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, THE FROG FIRE IN WESTERN
MODOC COUNTY, AND 8 LARGE FIRES OUT OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE AREAS
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE ALL OVER 10 ACRES AND ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SMOKE AND HAZE IN
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INPUT AND SCRUTINIZED IN THE FORECAST OUT
THROUGH DAY 3, THURSDAY, BASED ON OUTPUT PRIMARILY FROM THE BLUE
SKY 4KM NWRMC PACIFIC NORTHWEST 72 HOUR FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM
AIRFIRE. IN SHORT, AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ACTIVE FIRES ON THE
WEST SIDE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SMOKY AND HAZY CONDITIONS AS
WILL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FROG
FIRE AND IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

AS FAR AS WEATHER GOES TODAY, WE`RE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WE EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE CRESTS SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS SOMEWHAT
IMPRESSIVE AT 500MB AND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE
LATER AND MUTED COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST 2 DAYS.
FIRST, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
FOR OUR AREA. SECOND, SMOKE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS MUTED
DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THE LAST 2 DAYS,
AND EXPECT SMOKE TO KEEP STORMS ISOLATED THERE AGAIN TODAY. BOTH
THE GFS20 AND NAM12 INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESSER IN
THE AREA TODAY, AND 700MB COMPUTED CAPE IS SUBSTANTIALLY LESS
TODAY IN DURATION AND MAGNITUDE THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. WE DO
STILL EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
SCATTERED FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS THIS EVENING IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE AT 10-15 KNOTS, BUT MAY SLOW ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING. WFAS.NET INDICATES FUELS ARE LESS RECEPTIVE THAN
THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO IN THAT AREA AND SUSPECT THIS ALONG WITH
SOME RAIN WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD KEEP NEW FIRE STARTS LIMITED
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. ALL TOLD, SUSPECT LIGHTNING TO BE 400
STRIKES OR FEWER TODAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WE`LL CATCH A BREAK FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTION. FRIDAY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARRIVE FROM
THE SOUTH AGAIN. MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY WITH DETAILS OF
THIS. ALL IN ALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR DAILY NORMALS THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BTL

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... FLOW
ALOFT IS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRIER AND
LESS UNSTABLE STABLE CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST AS A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL STABILIZE THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY  BUT
WARMER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC



000
FXUS66 KMFR 041315 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
622 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

.DISCUSSION...
BLM LIGHTNING DETECTED ANOTHER APPROXIMATE 950 CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE OCCURRED EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.
FORTUNATELY, AS EVENING SET IN, THESE STORMS SLOWED AND LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL FROM THEM. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES REPORTED 0.10 TO 0.50" OF RAIN, WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF NEARLY AN INCH IN CHILOQUIN AND ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF UPPER KLAMATH LAKE.

OVER THE LAST 4 DAYS WE HAVE HAD OVER 2600 LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE MEDFORD FIRE WEATHER ZONE AREAS. MANY WILDFIRES HAVE
BEEN FOUND WITH MANY OF THEM LESS THAN 10 ACRES. HOWEVER, THE
STOUTS CREEK FIRE NEAR TILLER AND MILO, THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE
NEAR GLIDE, THE EAST KELSEY FIRE NORTHWEST OF GALICE, 3 FIRES IN
AND NEAR NORTHWESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, THE FROG FIRE IN WESTERN
MODOC COUNTY, AND 8 LARGE FIRES OUT OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE AREAS
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE ALL OVER 10 ACRES AND ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SMOKE AND HAZE IN
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INPUT AND SCRUTINIZED IN THE FORECAST OUT
THROUGH DAY 3, THURSDAY, BASED ON OUTPUT PRIMARILY FROM THE BLUE
SKY 4KM NWRMC PACIFIC NORTHWEST 72 HOUR FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM
AIRFIRE. IN SHORT, AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ACTIVE FIRES ON THE
WEST SIDE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SMOKY AND HAZY CONDITIONS AS
WILL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FROG
FIRE AND IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

AS FAR AS WEATHER GOES TODAY, WE`RE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WE EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE CRESTS SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS SOMEWHAT
IMPRESSIVE AT 500MB AND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE
LATER AND MUTED COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST 2 DAYS.
FIRST, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
FOR OUR AREA. SECOND, SMOKE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS MUTED
DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THE LAST 2 DAYS,
AND EXPECT SMOKE TO KEEP STORMS ISOLATED THERE AGAIN TODAY. BOTH
THE GFS20 AND NAM12 INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESSER IN
THE AREA TODAY, AND 700MB COMPUTED CAPE IS SUBSTANTIALLY LESS
TODAY IN DURATION AND MAGNITUDE THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. WE DO
STILL EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
SCATTERED FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS THIS EVENING IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE AT 10-15 KNOTS, BUT MAY SLOW ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING. WFAS.NET INDICATES FUELS ARE LESS RECEPTIVE THAN
THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO IN THAT AREA AND SUSPECT THIS ALONG WITH
SOME RAIN WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD KEEP NEW FIRE STARTS LIMITED
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. ALL TOLD, SUSPECT LIGHTNING TO BE 400
STRIKES OR FEWER TODAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WE`LL CATCH A BREAK FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTION. FRIDAY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARRIVE FROM
THE SOUTH AGAIN. MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY WITH DETAILS OF
THIS. ALL IN ALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR DAILY NORMALS THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...BUT WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME AREAS THIS
EVENING. OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND
SISKIYOUS SOUTH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING  FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY NE INTO
THE CASCADES AND KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES.
/FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
TODAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN STRENGTHEN
FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
ABATE AT THAT TIME. /FB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... FLOW
ALOFT IS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRIER AND
LESS UNSTABLE STABLE CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST AS A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL STABILIZE THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY  BUT
WARMER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
  PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
  PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
  PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
  TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/FJB/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 041315 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
622 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

.DISCUSSION...
BLM LIGHTNING DETECTED ANOTHER APPROXIMATE 950 CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE OCCURRED EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.
FORTUNATELY, AS EVENING SET IN, THESE STORMS SLOWED AND LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL FROM THEM. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES REPORTED 0.10 TO 0.50" OF RAIN, WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF NEARLY AN INCH IN CHILOQUIN AND ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF UPPER KLAMATH LAKE.

OVER THE LAST 4 DAYS WE HAVE HAD OVER 2600 LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE MEDFORD FIRE WEATHER ZONE AREAS. MANY WILDFIRES HAVE
BEEN FOUND WITH MANY OF THEM LESS THAN 10 ACRES. HOWEVER, THE
STOUTS CREEK FIRE NEAR TILLER AND MILO, THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE
NEAR GLIDE, THE EAST KELSEY FIRE NORTHWEST OF GALICE, 3 FIRES IN
AND NEAR NORTHWESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, THE FROG FIRE IN WESTERN
MODOC COUNTY, AND 8 LARGE FIRES OUT OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE AREAS
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE ALL OVER 10 ACRES AND ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SMOKE AND HAZE IN
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INPUT AND SCRUTINIZED IN THE FORECAST OUT
THROUGH DAY 3, THURSDAY, BASED ON OUTPUT PRIMARILY FROM THE BLUE
SKY 4KM NWRMC PACIFIC NORTHWEST 72 HOUR FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM
AIRFIRE. IN SHORT, AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ACTIVE FIRES ON THE
WEST SIDE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SMOKY AND HAZY CONDITIONS AS
WILL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FROG
FIRE AND IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

AS FAR AS WEATHER GOES TODAY, WE`RE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WE EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE CRESTS SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS SOMEWHAT
IMPRESSIVE AT 500MB AND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE
LATER AND MUTED COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST 2 DAYS.
FIRST, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
FOR OUR AREA. SECOND, SMOKE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS MUTED
DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THE LAST 2 DAYS,
AND EXPECT SMOKE TO KEEP STORMS ISOLATED THERE AGAIN TODAY. BOTH
THE GFS20 AND NAM12 INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESSER IN
THE AREA TODAY, AND 700MB COMPUTED CAPE IS SUBSTANTIALLY LESS
TODAY IN DURATION AND MAGNITUDE THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. WE DO
STILL EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
SCATTERED FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS THIS EVENING IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE AT 10-15 KNOTS, BUT MAY SLOW ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING. WFAS.NET INDICATES FUELS ARE LESS RECEPTIVE THAN
THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO IN THAT AREA AND SUSPECT THIS ALONG WITH
SOME RAIN WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD KEEP NEW FIRE STARTS LIMITED
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. ALL TOLD, SUSPECT LIGHTNING TO BE 400
STRIKES OR FEWER TODAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WE`LL CATCH A BREAK FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTION. FRIDAY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARRIVE FROM
THE SOUTH AGAIN. MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY WITH DETAILS OF
THIS. ALL IN ALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR DAILY NORMALS THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...BUT WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME AREAS THIS
EVENING. OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND
SISKIYOUS SOUTH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING  FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY NE INTO
THE CASCADES AND KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES.
/FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
TODAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN STRENGTHEN
FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
ABATE AT THAT TIME. /FB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... FLOW
ALOFT IS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRIER AND
LESS UNSTABLE STABLE CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST AS A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL STABILIZE THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY  BUT
WARMER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
  PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
  PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
  PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
  TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/FJB/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 041315 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
622 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

.DISCUSSION...
BLM LIGHTNING DETECTED ANOTHER APPROXIMATE 950 CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE OCCURRED EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.
FORTUNATELY, AS EVENING SET IN, THESE STORMS SLOWED AND LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL FROM THEM. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES REPORTED 0.10 TO 0.50" OF RAIN, WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF NEARLY AN INCH IN CHILOQUIN AND ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF UPPER KLAMATH LAKE.

OVER THE LAST 4 DAYS WE HAVE HAD OVER 2600 LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE MEDFORD FIRE WEATHER ZONE AREAS. MANY WILDFIRES HAVE
BEEN FOUND WITH MANY OF THEM LESS THAN 10 ACRES. HOWEVER, THE
STOUTS CREEK FIRE NEAR TILLER AND MILO, THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE
NEAR GLIDE, THE EAST KELSEY FIRE NORTHWEST OF GALICE, 3 FIRES IN
AND NEAR NORTHWESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, THE FROG FIRE IN WESTERN
MODOC COUNTY, AND 8 LARGE FIRES OUT OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE AREAS
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE ALL OVER 10 ACRES AND ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SMOKE AND HAZE IN
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INPUT AND SCRUTINIZED IN THE FORECAST OUT
THROUGH DAY 3, THURSDAY, BASED ON OUTPUT PRIMARILY FROM THE BLUE
SKY 4KM NWRMC PACIFIC NORTHWEST 72 HOUR FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM
AIRFIRE. IN SHORT, AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ACTIVE FIRES ON THE
WEST SIDE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SMOKY AND HAZY CONDITIONS AS
WILL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FROG
FIRE AND IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

AS FAR AS WEATHER GOES TODAY, WE`RE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WE EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE CRESTS SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS SOMEWHAT
IMPRESSIVE AT 500MB AND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE
LATER AND MUTED COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST 2 DAYS.
FIRST, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
FOR OUR AREA. SECOND, SMOKE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS MUTED
DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THE LAST 2 DAYS,
AND EXPECT SMOKE TO KEEP STORMS ISOLATED THERE AGAIN TODAY. BOTH
THE GFS20 AND NAM12 INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESSER IN
THE AREA TODAY, AND 700MB COMPUTED CAPE IS SUBSTANTIALLY LESS
TODAY IN DURATION AND MAGNITUDE THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. WE DO
STILL EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
SCATTERED FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS THIS EVENING IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE AT 10-15 KNOTS, BUT MAY SLOW ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING. WFAS.NET INDICATES FUELS ARE LESS RECEPTIVE THAN
THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO IN THAT AREA AND SUSPECT THIS ALONG WITH
SOME RAIN WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD KEEP NEW FIRE STARTS LIMITED
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. ALL TOLD, SUSPECT LIGHTNING TO BE 400
STRIKES OR FEWER TODAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WE`LL CATCH A BREAK FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTION. FRIDAY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARRIVE FROM
THE SOUTH AGAIN. MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY WITH DETAILS OF
THIS. ALL IN ALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR DAILY NORMALS THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...BUT WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME AREAS THIS
EVENING. OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND
SISKIYOUS SOUTH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING  FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY NE INTO
THE CASCADES AND KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES.
/FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
TODAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN STRENGTHEN
FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
ABATE AT THAT TIME. /FB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... FLOW
ALOFT IS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR DRIER AND
LESS UNSTABLE STABLE CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST AS A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL STABILIZE THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY  BUT
WARMER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
  PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
  PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
  PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
  TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/FJB/JRS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 041122
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
422 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BLM LIGHTNING DETECTED ANOTHER APPROXIMATE 950 CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE OCCURRED EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.
FORTUNATELY, AS EVENING SET IN, THESE STORMS SLOWED AND LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL FROM THEM. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES REPORTED 0.10 TO 0.50" OF RAIN, WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF NEARLY AN INCH IN CHILOQUIN AND ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF UPPER KLAMATH LAKE.

OVER THE LAST 4 DAYS WE HAVE HAD OVER 2600 LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE MEDFORD FIRE WEATHER ZONE AREAS. MANY WILDFIRES HAVE
BEEN FOUND WITH MANY OF THEM LESS THAN 10 ACRES. HOWEVER, THE
STOUTS CREEK FIRE NEAR TILLER AND MILO, THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE
NEAR GLIDE, THE EAST KELSEY FIRE NORTHWEST OF GALICE, 3 FIRES IN
AND NEAR NORTHWESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, THE FROG FIRE IN WESTERN
MODOC COUNTY, AND 8 LARGE FIRES OUT OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE AREAS
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE ALL OVER 10 ACRES AND ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SMOKE AND HAZE IN
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INPUT AND SCRUTINIZED IN THE FORECAST OUT
THROUGH DAY 3, THURSDAY, BASED ON OUTPUT PRIMARILY FROM THE BLUE
SKY 4KM NWRMC PACIFIC NORTHWEST 72 HOUR FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM
AIRFIRE. IN SHORT, AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ACTIVE FIRES ON THE
WEST SIDE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SMOKY AND HAZY CONDITIONS AS
WILL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FROG
FIRE AND IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

AS FAR AS WEATHER GOES TODAY, WE`RE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WE EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE CRESTS SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS SOMEWHAT
IMPRESSIVE AT 500MB AND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE
LATER AND MUTED COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST 2 DAYS.
FIRST, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
FOR OUR AREA. SECOND, SMOKE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS MUTED
DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THE LAST 2 DAYS,
AND EXPECT SMOKE TO KEEP STORMS ISOLATED THERE AGAIN TODAY. BOTH
THE GFS20 AND NAM12 INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESSER IN
THE AREA TODAY, AND 700MB COMPUTED CAPE IS SUBSTANTIALLY LESS
TODAY IN DURATION AND MAGNITUDE THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. WE DO
STILL EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
SCATTERED FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS THIS EVENING IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE AT 10-15 KNOTS, BUT MAY SLOW ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING. WFAS.NET INDICATES FUELS ARE LESS RECEPTIVE THAN
THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO IN THAT AREA AND SUSPECT THIS ALONG WITH
SOME RAIN WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD KEEP NEW FIRE STARTS LIMITED
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. ALL TOLD, SUSPECT LIGHTNING TO BE 400
STRIKES OR FEWER TODAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WE`LL CATCH A BREAK FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTION. FRIDAY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARRIVE FROM
THE SOUTH AGAIN. MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY WITH DETAILS OF
THIS. ALL IN ALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR DAILY NORMALS THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...BUT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME
AREAS TUESDAY EVENING. OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...AREAS OF
MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
TODAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN STRENGTHEN
FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
ABATE AT THAT TIME. /FB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 800 PM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA AND THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE LATER THIS EVENING. ON TUESDAY THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR
DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL STABILIZE THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL
BE DRY BUT WARMER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
  PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
  PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
  PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
  TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/FJB/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 041122
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
422 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BLM LIGHTNING DETECTED ANOTHER APPROXIMATE 950 CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE OCCURRED EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.
FORTUNATELY, AS EVENING SET IN, THESE STORMS SLOWED AND LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL FROM THEM. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES REPORTED 0.10 TO 0.50" OF RAIN, WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF NEARLY AN INCH IN CHILOQUIN AND ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF UPPER KLAMATH LAKE.

OVER THE LAST 4 DAYS WE HAVE HAD OVER 2600 LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE MEDFORD FIRE WEATHER ZONE AREAS. MANY WILDFIRES HAVE
BEEN FOUND WITH MANY OF THEM LESS THAN 10 ACRES. HOWEVER, THE
STOUTS CREEK FIRE NEAR TILLER AND MILO, THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE
NEAR GLIDE, THE EAST KELSEY FIRE NORTHWEST OF GALICE, 3 FIRES IN
AND NEAR NORTHWESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, THE FROG FIRE IN WESTERN
MODOC COUNTY, AND 8 LARGE FIRES OUT OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE AREAS
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE ALL OVER 10 ACRES AND ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SMOKE AND HAZE IN
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INPUT AND SCRUTINIZED IN THE FORECAST OUT
THROUGH DAY 3, THURSDAY, BASED ON OUTPUT PRIMARILY FROM THE BLUE
SKY 4KM NWRMC PACIFIC NORTHWEST 72 HOUR FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM
AIRFIRE. IN SHORT, AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ACTIVE FIRES ON THE
WEST SIDE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SMOKY AND HAZY CONDITIONS AS
WILL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FROG
FIRE AND IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

AS FAR AS WEATHER GOES TODAY, WE`RE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WE EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE CRESTS SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS SOMEWHAT
IMPRESSIVE AT 500MB AND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE
LATER AND MUTED COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST 2 DAYS.
FIRST, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
FOR OUR AREA. SECOND, SMOKE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS MUTED
DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THE LAST 2 DAYS,
AND EXPECT SMOKE TO KEEP STORMS ISOLATED THERE AGAIN TODAY. BOTH
THE GFS20 AND NAM12 INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESSER IN
THE AREA TODAY, AND 700MB COMPUTED CAPE IS SUBSTANTIALLY LESS
TODAY IN DURATION AND MAGNITUDE THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. WE DO
STILL EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
SCATTERED FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS THIS EVENING IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE AT 10-15 KNOTS, BUT MAY SLOW ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING. WFAS.NET INDICATES FUELS ARE LESS RECEPTIVE THAN
THEY WERE A FEW DAYS AGO IN THAT AREA AND SUSPECT THIS ALONG WITH
SOME RAIN WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD KEEP NEW FIRE STARTS LIMITED
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. ALL TOLD, SUSPECT LIGHTNING TO BE 400
STRIKES OR FEWER TODAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WE`LL CATCH A BREAK FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTION. FRIDAY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARRIVE FROM
THE SOUTH AGAIN. MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY WITH DETAILS OF
THIS. ALL IN ALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR DAILY NORMALS THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...BUT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME
AREAS TUESDAY EVENING. OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...AREAS OF
MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
TODAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN STRENGTHEN
FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
ABATE AT THAT TIME. /FB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 800 PM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA AND THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE LATER THIS EVENING. ON TUESDAY THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR
DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL STABILIZE THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL
BE DRY BUT WARMER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
  PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
  PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
  PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
  TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/FJB/JRS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 041022 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
422 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LINGERING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO AT 4 AM
MDT...EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DYING OUT BY 6
AM MDT. ASIDE FROM THIS CLUSTER...THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT
OF THE REGION BEHIND THE PASSING OF MONDAY/S SHORTWAVE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON
LASTING INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER...THE
MAGIC VALLEY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE BRUNT OF
THE TROUGH WILL COME WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECTING HIGH QPF WITH THIS TROUGH...UP TO 0.1
INCHES IN SOME PLACES...MOSTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AND DROP
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED OVER IDAHO DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
TROUGH OVER ID THURSDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS 4-7F BELOW NORMAL THEN
SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COASTAL CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH ACROSS THE ORE-NV BORDER
WHICH IS FASTER THAN GFS/EC. SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN. CA
LOW HAS 80KT UPPER JET SUPPORT WHICH LIFTS NE ACROSS S IDAHO
SATURDAY MORNING SO NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK...AS ARE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH  LIFTS NE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONG WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO START TO
RETROGRADE FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS
FAVORING NE OREGON. AN OFFSHORE TROUGH AND HOT CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
DOMINATE THE LAST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...ISOLATED MFVR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW
IDAHO UNTIL 12Z AND REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z MAINLY NEAR THE ID-NV
BORDER. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WEST 5-15KTS...EXCEPT
GUSTS AROUND 40KT DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT WSW 10-20 KT AT
10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 041022 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
422 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LINGERING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO AT 4 AM
MDT...EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DYING OUT BY 6
AM MDT. ASIDE FROM THIS CLUSTER...THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT
OF THE REGION BEHIND THE PASSING OF MONDAY/S SHORTWAVE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON
LASTING INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER...THE
MAGIC VALLEY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE BRUNT OF
THE TROUGH WILL COME WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECTING HIGH QPF WITH THIS TROUGH...UP TO 0.1
INCHES IN SOME PLACES...MOSTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AND DROP
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED OVER IDAHO DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
TROUGH OVER ID THURSDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS 4-7F BELOW NORMAL THEN
SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COASTAL CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH ACROSS THE ORE-NV BORDER
WHICH IS FASTER THAN GFS/EC. SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN. CA
LOW HAS 80KT UPPER JET SUPPORT WHICH LIFTS NE ACROSS S IDAHO
SATURDAY MORNING SO NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK...AS ARE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH  LIFTS NE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONG WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO START TO
RETROGRADE FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS
FAVORING NE OREGON. AN OFFSHORE TROUGH AND HOT CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
DOMINATE THE LAST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...ISOLATED MFVR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW
IDAHO UNTIL 12Z AND REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z MAINLY NEAR THE ID-NV
BORDER. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WEST 5-15KTS...EXCEPT
GUSTS AROUND 40KT DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT WSW 10-20 KT AT
10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 041022
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
422 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LINGERING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO AT 4 AM
MDT...EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DYING OUT BY 6
AM MDT. ASIDE FROM THIS CLUSTER...THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT
OF THE REGION BEHIND THE PASSING OF MONDAY/S SHORTWAVE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER...THE MAGIC VALLEY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BOISE
MOUNTAINS. THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH WILL COME WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECTING HIGH QPF WITH
THIS TROUGH...UP TO 0.1 INCHES IN SOME PLACES...MOSTLY IN THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT NORMAL
TUESDAY AND DROP 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING HEIGHTS AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED OVER IDAHO DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
TROUGH OVER ID THURSDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS 4-7F BELOW NORMAL THEN
SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COASTAL CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH ACROSS THE ORE-NV BORDER
WHICH IS FASTER THAN GFS/EC. SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN. CA
LOW HAS 80KT UPPER JET SUPPORT WHICH LIFTS NE ACROSS S IDAHO
SATURDAY MORNING SO NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK...AS ARE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH  LIFTS NE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONG WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO START TO
RETROGRADE FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS
FAVORING NE OREGON. AN OFFSHORE TROUGH AND HOT CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
DOMINATE THE LAST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...ISOLATED MFVR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW
IDAHO UNTIL 12Z AND REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z MAINLY NEAR THE ID-NV
BORDER. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WEST 5-15KTS...EXCEPT
GUSTS AROUND 40KT DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT WSW 10-20 KT AT
10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....VM




000
FXUS66 KPQR 041017
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PDT TUE AUG  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WED
WITH WEAK RIDGING RETURNING THU AND FRI FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER TROUGH
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS REACHING SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES OVER
THE NE PACIFIC CONTINUES. REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS NOT BRINGING AS
MUCH CLOUDS AS EARLIER EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT THERE IS
SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL STRIP AND LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER AS FAR AS KELSO. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TODAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER WESTERN B.C. WILL SAG FURTHER INTO THE PACNW TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD INCREASE...OR AT LEAST MAINTAIN WHAT CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH WA AND NORTH OREGON COASTAL AREAS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW AND MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
NORTH...POSSIBLY EVEN WORKING THEIR WAY MORE SOUTHWARD IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME DRIZZLE ON THE NORTH COAST
LOOKS REASONABLE IN THIS CASE.

HIGH TEMPS INLAND WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
WED BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
WED NIGHT AND THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THURSDAY TO BE A WARMER DAY WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS LIMITED TO THE  NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 90S LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER ON
FRIDAY THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALSO INTRODUCES A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OREGON CASCADES...MAINLY ALONG THE
CREST. THE SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURS AHEAD OF A UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIGGING DOWN OUT OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH OF THIS
SYSTEM...CREATING UNCERTAINTY WHICH SHOULD BECOME RESOLVED AS WE
APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT IF SYSTEM PLAYS OUT AS
FORECAST RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...A STABLE LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES EARLY TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MVFR CIGS ALONG
THE N OREGON COAST...BUT ONLY A FEW LOCAL POCKETS ALONG THE REST
OF THE COASTAL AREAS. WITH NEARLY ZERO T/TD SPREAD AND CALM WINDS
AT KONP...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OR ENHANCEMENT OF MVFR CIGS ALONG REMAINDER OF COAST
THROUGH OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH ONLY A LITTLE OFFSHORE STRATUS AND
LIMITED MVFR CIGS AROUND KKLS...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW IN
SEEING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER MVFR CIGS FOR THE PORTLAND
METRO AREA. IF ANY DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
KTTD AND KPDX WITH THE REMAINING INTERIOR TAF SITES REMAINING VFR.
COASTAL AREAS LIKELY SEE A FEW HOURS OF CIGS SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS AFT 06Z WED FOR
THE COAST.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...A STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL
BRING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER THE
TERMINAL TUESDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z
TUESDAY...BUT GIVEN LACK OF DEVELOPMENT AND ONSHORE PUSH TO THIS
POINT...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
MAINTAINS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG
THE COAST WITH OCCASIONAL STEEPER WIND DRIVEN SEAS FROM TIME TO
TIME THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST ROUND OF WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS SHOULD
ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS. THE NEXT MAJOR UPTICK IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE
TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA AND WE WILL LIKELY NEED
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND...AND A WEAK FRONT MAY BRIEFLY TURN WINDS
SOUTHERLY...BUT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN.
OTHERWISE...WE MAY SEE NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AS THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 041017
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PDT TUE AUG  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WED
WITH WEAK RIDGING RETURNING THU AND FRI FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER TROUGH
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS REACHING SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES OVER
THE NE PACIFIC CONTINUES. REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS NOT BRINGING AS
MUCH CLOUDS AS EARLIER EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT THERE IS
SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL STRIP AND LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER AS FAR AS KELSO. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TODAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER WESTERN B.C. WILL SAG FURTHER INTO THE PACNW TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD INCREASE...OR AT LEAST MAINTAIN WHAT CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH WA AND NORTH OREGON COASTAL AREAS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW AND MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
NORTH...POSSIBLY EVEN WORKING THEIR WAY MORE SOUTHWARD IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME DRIZZLE ON THE NORTH COAST
LOOKS REASONABLE IN THIS CASE.

HIGH TEMPS INLAND WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
WED BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
WED NIGHT AND THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THURSDAY TO BE A WARMER DAY WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS LIMITED TO THE  NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 90S LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER ON
FRIDAY THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALSO INTRODUCES A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OREGON CASCADES...MAINLY ALONG THE
CREST. THE SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURS AHEAD OF A UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIGGING DOWN OUT OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH OF THIS
SYSTEM...CREATING UNCERTAINTY WHICH SHOULD BECOME RESOLVED AS WE
APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT IF SYSTEM PLAYS OUT AS
FORECAST RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...A STABLE LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES EARLY TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MVFR CIGS ALONG
THE N OREGON COAST...BUT ONLY A FEW LOCAL POCKETS ALONG THE REST
OF THE COASTAL AREAS. WITH NEARLY ZERO T/TD SPREAD AND CALM WINDS
AT KONP...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OR ENHANCEMENT OF MVFR CIGS ALONG REMAINDER OF COAST
THROUGH OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH ONLY A LITTLE OFFSHORE STRATUS AND
LIMITED MVFR CIGS AROUND KKLS...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW IN
SEEING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER MVFR CIGS FOR THE PORTLAND
METRO AREA. IF ANY DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
KTTD AND KPDX WITH THE REMAINING INTERIOR TAF SITES REMAINING VFR.
COASTAL AREAS LIKELY SEE A FEW HOURS OF CIGS SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS AFT 06Z WED FOR
THE COAST.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...A STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL
BRING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER THE
TERMINAL TUESDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z
TUESDAY...BUT GIVEN LACK OF DEVELOPMENT AND ONSHORE PUSH TO THIS
POINT...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
MAINTAINS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG
THE COAST WITH OCCASIONAL STEEPER WIND DRIVEN SEAS FROM TIME TO
TIME THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST ROUND OF WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS SHOULD
ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS. THE NEXT MAJOR UPTICK IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE
TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA AND WE WILL LIKELY NEED
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND...AND A WEAK FRONT MAY BRIEFLY TURN WINDS
SOUTHERLY...BUT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN.
OTHERWISE...WE MAY SEE NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AS THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 041002
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH IT WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST. AS SUCH WILL SEE THE UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY TO WESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR TO CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGELY RELEGATED
TO PORTIONS OF THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, THE JOHN DAY BASIN,
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY, ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND WALLOWA COUNTY. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS MAY SLOP OVER INTO WESTERN
KITTITAS COUNTY FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON. SHOULD SEE BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS AND ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN BOTH DAYS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE
THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY, BUT AN INCREASE IN MARINE AIR SHOULD CAUSE
A FURTHER COOL DOWN OF 5-8 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN SOUTHEAST BC WILL MOVE EAST OF ROCKIES PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FORECAST AREA, WHICH GIVES WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND
SINKING AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER REGION FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PART OF CENTRAL
OREGON FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
DESCHUTES COUNTY AND ALSO IN SOUTHERN CROOK COUNTY. FRIDAY NIGHT THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW BRINGS INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WITH DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS TO IDAHO. OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IS ON THE WANE AS THE LOW MOVES INTO IDAHO/MONTANA
FOR DECREASING POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MORE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR 8-12Z. SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE OVER
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS MAY INVADE INTO THE KALW AREA OVERNIGHT...DUE TO
DRAINAGE SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  POLAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND AREAS NEAR THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW RH`S THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THESE WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
CONDITIONS MAY BE SIMILAR. THE DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND
THE WARNING WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
BE LESS TODAY, WITH ONLY PORTIONS OF OREGON ZONES 640, 642, 644 AND
645 SEEING ISOLATED CELLS. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  91  56  85  53 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  93  63  86  59 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  95  57  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  88  55  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  94  57  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  87  58  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  88  45  82  40 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  88  48  81  48 /  20  10  10   0
GCD  90  50  86  46 /  20  20  10   0
DLS  88  60  81  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ639-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/99/90




000
FXUS66 KPDT 041002
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH IT WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST. AS SUCH WILL SEE THE UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY TO WESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR TO CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGELY RELEGATED
TO PORTIONS OF THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, THE JOHN DAY BASIN,
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY, ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS
AND WALLOWA COUNTY. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS MAY SLOP OVER INTO WESTERN
KITTITAS COUNTY FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON. SHOULD SEE BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS AND ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN BOTH DAYS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE
THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY, BUT AN INCREASE IN MARINE AIR SHOULD CAUSE
A FURTHER COOL DOWN OF 5-8 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN SOUTHEAST BC WILL MOVE EAST OF ROCKIES PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FORECAST AREA, WHICH GIVES WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND
SINKING AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER REGION FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PART OF CENTRAL
OREGON FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
DESCHUTES COUNTY AND ALSO IN SOUTHERN CROOK COUNTY. FRIDAY NIGHT THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW BRINGS INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WITH DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS TO IDAHO. OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IS ON THE WANE AS THE LOW MOVES INTO IDAHO/MONTANA
FOR DECREASING POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MORE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR 8-12Z. SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE OVER
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS MAY INVADE INTO THE KALW AREA OVERNIGHT...DUE TO
DRAINAGE SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  POLAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND AREAS NEAR THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW RH`S THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THESE WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
CONDITIONS MAY BE SIMILAR. THE DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND
THE WARNING WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
BE LESS TODAY, WITH ONLY PORTIONS OF OREGON ZONES 640, 642, 644 AND
645 SEEING ISOLATED CELLS. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  91  56  85  53 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  93  63  86  59 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  95  57  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  88  55  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  94  57  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  87  58  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  88  45  82  40 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  88  48  81  48 /  20  10  10   0
GCD  90  50  86  46 /  20  20  10   0
DLS  88  60  81  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ639-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/99/90



000
FXUS66 KPDT 040520 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY GENERATED
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY IS
DIMINISHING AND WILL ALSO BE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT 2 HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN BC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. BREEZY WEST WINDS IN SOME LOCATIONS. 94

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR 8-12Z. SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE OVER
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS MAY INVADE INTO THE KALW AREA OVERNIGHT...DUE TO
DRAINAGE SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REMNANTS OF MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND OR THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING
AND THE TAPPER OFF TO JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS WE
TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MOISTURE
EAST AND SOUTH LEAVING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LA PINE TO ENTERPRISE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO ALBERTA ON THURSDAY.
THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST DAYS THIS WEEK. WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FAVORS A DRY FORECAST BUT
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AND ADDRESSED IN THAT SECTION.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY EVENING.  EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
AREA.  DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON AREAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.  GFS
MODEL IS KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF OREGON...PROVIDING MORE
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  OVERALL HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
THE TIME PERIOD. WEBER

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND AREAS NEAR THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARABLE TO THE FORECAST...BUT RH`S ARE HIGHER THAN WE PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED DUE TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS KEEPING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN RH
VALUES. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH LOW RH`S IN THE WARNING
AREAS.  THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR. THE DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND
THE WARNING WILL BE MADE TOMORROW. AS FAR AS THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL THIS EVENING AND
ON TUESDAY AND MAINLY FROM THE OCHOCO MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  90  57  85 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  66  92  63  86 /  10  10   0  10
PSC  62  94  59  90 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  59  88  56  84 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  62  93  58  88 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  62  87  57  83 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  50  87  46  82 /  20  10  10   0
LGD  55  88  51  82 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  56  91  53  86 /  20  10  10  10
DLS  65  88  60  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ611-639>641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94




000
FXUS66 KPDT 040520 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY GENERATED
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY IS
DIMINISHING AND WILL ALSO BE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT 2 HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN BC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. BREEZY WEST WINDS IN SOME LOCATIONS. 94

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR 8-12Z. SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE OVER
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS MAY INVADE INTO THE KALW AREA OVERNIGHT...DUE TO
DRAINAGE SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REMNANTS OF MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND OR THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING
AND THE TAPPER OFF TO JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS WE
TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MOISTURE
EAST AND SOUTH LEAVING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LA PINE TO ENTERPRISE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO ALBERTA ON THURSDAY.
THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST DAYS THIS WEEK. WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FAVORS A DRY FORECAST BUT
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AND ADDRESSED IN THAT SECTION.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY EVENING.  EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
AREA.  DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON AREAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.  GFS
MODEL IS KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF OREGON...PROVIDING MORE
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  OVERALL HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
THE TIME PERIOD. WEBER

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND AREAS NEAR THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARABLE TO THE FORECAST...BUT RH`S ARE HIGHER THAN WE PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED DUE TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS KEEPING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN RH
VALUES. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH LOW RH`S IN THE WARNING
AREAS.  THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR. THE DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND
THE WARNING WILL BE MADE TOMORROW. AS FAR AS THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL THIS EVENING AND
ON TUESDAY AND MAINLY FROM THE OCHOCO MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  90  57  85 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  66  92  63  86 /  10  10   0  10
PSC  62  94  59  90 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  59  88  56  84 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  62  93  58  88 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  62  87  57  83 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  50  87  46  82 /  20  10  10   0
LGD  55  88  51  82 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  56  91  53  86 /  20  10  10  10
DLS  65  88  60  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ611-639>641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94




000
FXUS66 KPDT 040520 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY GENERATED
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY IS
DIMINISHING AND WILL ALSO BE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT 2 HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN BC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. BREEZY WEST WINDS IN SOME LOCATIONS. 94

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR 8-12Z. SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE OVER
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS MAY INVADE INTO THE KALW AREA OVERNIGHT...DUE TO
DRAINAGE SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REMNANTS OF MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND OR THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING
AND THE TAPPER OFF TO JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS WE
TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MOISTURE
EAST AND SOUTH LEAVING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LA PINE TO ENTERPRISE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO ALBERTA ON THURSDAY.
THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST DAYS THIS WEEK. WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FAVORS A DRY FORECAST BUT
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AND ADDRESSED IN THAT SECTION.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY EVENING.  EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
AREA.  DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON AREAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.  GFS
MODEL IS KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF OREGON...PROVIDING MORE
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  OVERALL HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
THE TIME PERIOD. WEBER

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND AREAS NEAR THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARABLE TO THE FORECAST...BUT RH`S ARE HIGHER THAN WE PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED DUE TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS KEEPING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN RH
VALUES. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH LOW RH`S IN THE WARNING
AREAS.  THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR. THE DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND
THE WARNING WILL BE MADE TOMORROW. AS FAR AS THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL THIS EVENING AND
ON TUESDAY AND MAINLY FROM THE OCHOCO MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  90  57  85 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  66  92  63  86 /  10  10   0  10
PSC  62  94  59  90 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  59  88  56  84 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  62  93  58  88 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  62  87  57  83 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  50  87  46  82 /  20  10  10   0
LGD  55  88  51  82 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  56  91  53  86 /  20  10  10  10
DLS  65  88  60  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ611-639>641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94



000
FXUS66 KPDT 040520 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY GENERATED
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY IS
DIMINISHING AND WILL ALSO BE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT 2 HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN BC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. BREEZY WEST WINDS IN SOME LOCATIONS. 94

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR 8-12Z. SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE OVER
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS MAY INVADE INTO THE KALW AREA OVERNIGHT...DUE TO
DRAINAGE SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 76

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REMNANTS OF MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND OR THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING
AND THE TAPPER OFF TO JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS WE
TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MOISTURE
EAST AND SOUTH LEAVING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LA PINE TO ENTERPRISE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO ALBERTA ON THURSDAY.
THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST DAYS THIS WEEK. WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FAVORS A DRY FORECAST BUT
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AND ADDRESSED IN THAT SECTION.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY EVENING.  EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
AREA.  DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON AREAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.  GFS
MODEL IS KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF OREGON...PROVIDING MORE
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  OVERALL HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
THE TIME PERIOD. WEBER

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND AREAS NEAR THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARABLE TO THE FORECAST...BUT RH`S ARE HIGHER THAN WE PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED DUE TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS KEEPING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN RH
VALUES. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH LOW RH`S IN THE WARNING
AREAS.  THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR. THE DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND
THE WARNING WILL BE MADE TOMORROW. AS FAR AS THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL THIS EVENING AND
ON TUESDAY AND MAINLY FROM THE OCHOCO MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  90  57  85 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  66  92  63  86 /  10  10   0  10
PSC  62  94  59  90 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  59  88  56  84 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  62  93  58  88 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  62  87  57  83 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  50  87  46  82 /  20  10  10   0
LGD  55  88  51  82 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  56  91  53  86 /  20  10  10  10
DLS  65  88  60  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ611-639>641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94



000
FXUS66 KPQR 040417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
916 PM PDT MON AUG  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH GRAZED THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES WITH A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL
OREGON...AND WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A DRY COLD
FRONT IS PUSHING DOWN THE WASHINGTON COAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...USHERING IN STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW FOR MORE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPS...WHILE KEEPING CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF
WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH SOME
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...GRAZING WILLAMETTE PASS AS THEY
BUILT NORTHWARD ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. LIGHTNING DETECTION SUGGESTS
ONLY A FEW STRIKES ACTUALLY OCCURRED IN OUR CWA...WITH THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF WILLAMETTE PASS. THE MAIN UPPER
DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL
OREGON...AND WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT
FOR OUR DISTRICT.

THE NEXT FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS ACTUALLY DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
ON EARLIER VISIBLE AND NOW INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT IS MORE
APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH
ALONG THE WA COAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD REACH THE MOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA BY MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO
THE PAC NW TUE/WED FOR GREATER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS AS 500
MB HEIGHTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 570S. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW MAY PUSH
MORE LOW CLOUDINESS UP THE COLUMBIA AND INTO THE PDX METRO TONIGHT/
TUE MORNING...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS SIGNIFICANT MIXING AND
CLEARING OF THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL
STICK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW CLOUDS RE-FORMING ALONG THE
COAST LATER TONIGHT AND SPREADING INLAND TUE MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW INSISTENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN BRINGING THE STRATUS BACK.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW AND MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
NORTH...POSSIBLY EVEN WORKING THEIR WAY MORE SOUTHWARD IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THAN ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
SUPPORT OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF SOME DRIZZLE ON THE NORTH COAST.
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
NORTH INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY EITHER DUE TO MORNING DRIZZLE OR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS THE MARINE LAYER MIXES INTO A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK. TEMPS INLAND IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
BE 75 TO 80 WITH 80 TO 85 NEAR EUGENE. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THURSDAY TO BE A WARMER DAY WITH MORE
SUNSHINE THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...WITH THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS
MAINLY NORTH AND CLEARING EARLIER THAN ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
WEAGLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 90S LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER ON
FRIDAY THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALSO INTRODUCES A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OREGON CASCADES...MAINLY ALONG THE
CREST. THE SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURS AHEAD OF A UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIGGING DOWN OUT OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH OF THIS
SYSTEM...CREATING UNCERTAINTY WHICH SHOULD BECOME RESOLVED AS WE
APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT IF SYSTEM PLAYS OUT AS
FORECAST RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...A STABLE LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL
BRING MVFR TO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. GIVEN CURRENT
STRATUS COVERAGE OFFSHORE IS MODEST AT BEST...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
ALL THAT HIGH IT WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE PORTLAND METRO
TAFS. KPDX AND KTTD WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MVFR CONDITIONS
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z TUESDAY. KHIO...KSLE AND KEUG SEEM
MORE THAN LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

MVFR STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE NORTH COAST...WITH VFR CIGS OVER
THE CENTRAL COAST. CIGS OVER THE NORTH COAST LOOK TO SCATTER OUT
BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO
RETURN THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL
BRING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINAL
TUESDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE MINIMAL AMOUNT OF STRATUS OFFSHORE...CONFIDENCE HAS
LOWERED THAT IT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH INLAND TO PDX. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
AND CONTINUE OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST WITH OCCASIONAL STEEPER WIND DRIVEN SEAS FROM TIME
TO TIME THIS WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE FIRST ROUND OF WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE
MARGINAL...OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS THREAT FOR THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS GIVEN MODEL GUIDANCE AND BIAS.

THE NEXT MAJOR UPTICK IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TEMPORARILY
STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA AND WE WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND...AND A WEAK FRONT MAY BRIEFLY TURN WINDS
SOUTHERLY...BUT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN.
OTHERWISE...WE MAY SEE NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AS THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 3
     AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 040417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
916 PM PDT MON AUG  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH GRAZED THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES WITH A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL
OREGON...AND WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A DRY COLD
FRONT IS PUSHING DOWN THE WASHINGTON COAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...USHERING IN STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW FOR MORE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPS...WHILE KEEPING CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF
WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH SOME
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...GRAZING WILLAMETTE PASS AS THEY
BUILT NORTHWARD ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. LIGHTNING DETECTION SUGGESTS
ONLY A FEW STRIKES ACTUALLY OCCURRED IN OUR CWA...WITH THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF WILLAMETTE PASS. THE MAIN UPPER
DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL
OREGON...AND WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT
FOR OUR DISTRICT.

THE NEXT FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS ACTUALLY DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
ON EARLIER VISIBLE AND NOW INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT IS MORE
APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH
ALONG THE WA COAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD REACH THE MOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA BY MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO
THE PAC NW TUE/WED FOR GREATER ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS AS 500
MB HEIGHTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 570S. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW MAY PUSH
MORE LOW CLOUDINESS UP THE COLUMBIA AND INTO THE PDX METRO TONIGHT/
TUE MORNING...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS SIGNIFICANT MIXING AND
CLEARING OF THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL
STICK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW CLOUDS RE-FORMING ALONG THE
COAST LATER TONIGHT AND SPREADING INLAND TUE MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW INSISTENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN BRINGING THE STRATUS BACK.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW AND MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
NORTH...POSSIBLY EVEN WORKING THEIR WAY MORE SOUTHWARD IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THAN ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
SUPPORT OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF SOME DRIZZLE ON THE NORTH COAST.
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
NORTH INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY EITHER DUE TO MORNING DRIZZLE OR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS THE MARINE LAYER MIXES INTO A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK. TEMPS INLAND IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
BE 75 TO 80 WITH 80 TO 85 NEAR EUGENE. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THURSDAY TO BE A WARMER DAY WITH MORE
SUNSHINE THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...WITH THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS
MAINLY NORTH AND CLEARING EARLIER THAN ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
WEAGLE/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 90S LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER ON
FRIDAY THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALSO INTRODUCES A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OREGON CASCADES...MAINLY ALONG THE
CREST. THE SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURS AHEAD OF A UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIGGING DOWN OUT OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH OF THIS
SYSTEM...CREATING UNCERTAINTY WHICH SHOULD BECOME RESOLVED AS WE
APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT IF SYSTEM PLAYS OUT AS
FORECAST RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. -MCCOY

&&

.AVIATION...A STABLE LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL
BRING MVFR TO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. GIVEN CURRENT
STRATUS COVERAGE OFFSHORE IS MODEST AT BEST...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
ALL THAT HIGH IT WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE PORTLAND METRO
TAFS. KPDX AND KTTD WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MVFR CONDITIONS
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z TUESDAY. KHIO...KSLE AND KEUG SEEM
MORE THAN LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

MVFR STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE NORTH COAST...WITH VFR CIGS OVER
THE CENTRAL COAST. CIGS OVER THE NORTH COAST LOOK TO SCATTER OUT
BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO
RETURN THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL
BRING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINAL
TUESDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE MINIMAL AMOUNT OF STRATUS OFFSHORE...CONFIDENCE HAS
LOWERED THAT IT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH INLAND TO PDX. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
AND CONTINUE OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST WITH OCCASIONAL STEEPER WIND DRIVEN SEAS FROM TIME
TO TIME THIS WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE FIRST ROUND OF WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE
MARGINAL...OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS THREAT FOR THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS GIVEN MODEL GUIDANCE AND BIAS.

THE NEXT MAJOR UPTICK IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TEMPORARILY
STRENGTHENS OVER CALIFORNIA AND WE WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND...AND A WEAK FRONT MAY BRIEFLY TURN WINDS
SOUTHERLY...BUT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN.
OTHERWISE...WE MAY SEE NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AS THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 3
     AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 040333
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
933 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD HELPED CAP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW IDAHO ZONES. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN SW IDAHO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER S-CENTRAL OREGON HAS
INITIATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT IS TRACKING THROUGH
HARNEY COUNTY AT 830 PM PDT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO
MALHEUR COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH AS
THEY APPROACH THE ID/OR LINE BUT COULD VERY WELL PUSH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WOULD
EXPECT SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. HAVE MADE
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO DECREASE POPS FOR MOST
ZONES /ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS UP
TO 45KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...WSW 10-20 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT UPPER LOW WAS IN SWRN WY AND MOVING NNE.
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN OUR CWA BUT
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HARNEY COUNTY HAS CLEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT AREA MAY BE
THE FIRST TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVES AWAY.  FEWER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW BETTER COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL COME THROUGH TUESDAY.  GREATER SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY.  INSTABILITY
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
AND CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OFF SRN CALIF WILL ADVECT INTO
OUR CWA AS AN UPPER TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN THAN FROM TONIGHT/S WEAK SHOWERS.  WEDNESDAY
WILL ALSO BE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING
AND CLEARING TREND BEHIND IT. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THURSDAY
AND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS NEXT LOW HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ACROSS MODELS
AND RUNS...WITH ITS ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROBABLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS HINT AT A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST...BUT ANY PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES...PRECIP...OR
MAJOR IMPACTS IS QUITE BLURRY RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
     ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 040333
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
933 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD HELPED CAP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW IDAHO ZONES. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN SW IDAHO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER S-CENTRAL OREGON HAS
INITIATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT IS TRACKING THROUGH
HARNEY COUNTY AT 830 PM PDT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO
MALHEUR COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH AS
THEY APPROACH THE ID/OR LINE BUT COULD VERY WELL PUSH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WOULD
EXPECT SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. HAVE MADE
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO DECREASE POPS FOR MOST
ZONES /ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS UP
TO 45KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...WSW 10-20 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT UPPER LOW WAS IN SWRN WY AND MOVING NNE.
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN OUR CWA BUT
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HARNEY COUNTY HAS CLEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT AREA MAY BE
THE FIRST TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVES AWAY.  FEWER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW BETTER COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL COME THROUGH TUESDAY.  GREATER SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY.  INSTABILITY
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
AND CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OFF SRN CALIF WILL ADVECT INTO
OUR CWA AS AN UPPER TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN THAN FROM TONIGHT/S WEAK SHOWERS.  WEDNESDAY
WILL ALSO BE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING
AND CLEARING TREND BEHIND IT. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THURSDAY
AND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS NEXT LOW HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ACROSS MODELS
AND RUNS...WITH ITS ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROBABLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS HINT AT A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST...BUT ANY PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES...PRECIP...OR
MAJOR IMPACTS IS QUITE BLURRY RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
     ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 040333
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
933 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD HELPED CAP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW IDAHO ZONES. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN SW IDAHO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER S-CENTRAL OREGON HAS
INITIATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT IS TRACKING THROUGH
HARNEY COUNTY AT 830 PM PDT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO
MALHEUR COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH AS
THEY APPROACH THE ID/OR LINE BUT COULD VERY WELL PUSH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WOULD
EXPECT SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. HAVE MADE
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO DECREASE POPS FOR MOST
ZONES /ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS UP
TO 45KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...WSW 10-20 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT UPPER LOW WAS IN SWRN WY AND MOVING NNE.
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN OUR CWA BUT
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HARNEY COUNTY HAS CLEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT AREA MAY BE
THE FIRST TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVES AWAY.  FEWER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW BETTER COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL COME THROUGH TUESDAY.  GREATER SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY.  INSTABILITY
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
AND CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OFF SRN CALIF WILL ADVECT INTO
OUR CWA AS AN UPPER TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN THAN FROM TONIGHT/S WEAK SHOWERS.  WEDNESDAY
WILL ALSO BE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING
AND CLEARING TREND BEHIND IT. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THURSDAY
AND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS NEXT LOW HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ACROSS MODELS
AND RUNS...WITH ITS ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROBABLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS HINT AT A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST...BUT ANY PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES...PRECIP...OR
MAJOR IMPACTS IS QUITE BLURRY RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
     ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 040333
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
933 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD HELPED CAP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW IDAHO ZONES. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN SW IDAHO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER S-CENTRAL OREGON HAS
INITIATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT IS TRACKING THROUGH
HARNEY COUNTY AT 830 PM PDT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO
MALHEUR COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH AS
THEY APPROACH THE ID/OR LINE BUT COULD VERY WELL PUSH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WOULD
EXPECT SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. HAVE MADE
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO DECREASE POPS FOR MOST
ZONES /ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS UP
TO 45KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...WSW 10-20 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT UPPER LOW WAS IN SWRN WY AND MOVING NNE.
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN OUR CWA BUT
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HARNEY COUNTY HAS CLEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT AREA MAY BE
THE FIRST TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVES AWAY.  FEWER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW BETTER COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL COME THROUGH TUESDAY.  GREATER SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY.  INSTABILITY
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
AND CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OFF SRN CALIF WILL ADVECT INTO
OUR CWA AS AN UPPER TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN THAN FROM TONIGHT/S WEAK SHOWERS.  WEDNESDAY
WILL ALSO BE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING
AND CLEARING TREND BEHIND IT. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THURSDAY
AND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS NEXT LOW HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ACROSS MODELS
AND RUNS...WITH ITS ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROBABLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS HINT AT A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST...BUT ANY PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES...PRECIP...OR
MAJOR IMPACTS IS QUITE BLURRY RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
     ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 040333
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
933 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD HELPED CAP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW IDAHO ZONES. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN SW IDAHO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER S-CENTRAL OREGON HAS
INITIATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT IS TRACKING THROUGH
HARNEY COUNTY AT 830 PM PDT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO
MALHEUR COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH AS
THEY APPROACH THE ID/OR LINE BUT COULD VERY WELL PUSH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WOULD
EXPECT SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. HAVE MADE
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO DECREASE POPS FOR MOST
ZONES /ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS UP
TO 45KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...WSW 10-20 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT UPPER LOW WAS IN SWRN WY AND MOVING NNE.
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN OUR CWA BUT
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HARNEY COUNTY HAS CLEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT AREA MAY BE
THE FIRST TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVES AWAY.  FEWER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW BETTER COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL COME THROUGH TUESDAY.  GREATER SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY.  INSTABILITY
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
AND CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OFF SRN CALIF WILL ADVECT INTO
OUR CWA AS AN UPPER TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN THAN FROM TONIGHT/S WEAK SHOWERS.  WEDNESDAY
WILL ALSO BE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING
AND CLEARING TREND BEHIND IT. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THURSDAY
AND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS NEXT LOW HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ACROSS MODELS
AND RUNS...WITH ITS ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROBABLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS HINT AT A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST...BUT ANY PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES...PRECIP...OR
MAJOR IMPACTS IS QUITE BLURRY RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
     ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC




000
FXUS66 KPDT 040314
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
814 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY GENERATED
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY IS
DIMINISHING AND WILL ALSO BE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT 2 HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN BC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. BREEZY WEST WINDS IN SOME LOCATIONS. 94

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REMNANTS OF MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND OR THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING
AND THE TAPPER OFF TO JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS WE
TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MOISTURE
EAST AND SOUTH LEAVING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAPINE TO ENTERPRISE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO ALBERTA ON THURSDAY.
THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST DAYS THIS WEEK. WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FAVORS A DRY FORECAST BUT
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AND ADDRESSED IN THAT SECTION.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY EVENING.  EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
AREA.  DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON AREAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.  GFS
MODEL IS KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF OREGON...PROVIDING MORE
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  OVERALL HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
THE TIME PERIOD. WEBER

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR AT KBDN AND KRDM
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWERS.  THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ABOUT 30
MILES SSW OF KBDN AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY.  WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE
THE TAFS AS THEY NEAR.  WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST MAINLY IN
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE GORGE AREA.  EXPECT WINDS TO BE 15-
25KTS.  SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AT MOST SITES BETWEEN 6-10Z. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD ONLY GUST TO ABOUT
20KTS.  SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS MAY INVADE
INTO THE KALW AREA OVERNIGHT...DUE TO DRAINAGE SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER
THE INVERSION.  WEBER

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND AREAS NEAR THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARABLE TO THE FORECAST...BUT RH`S ARE HIGHER THAN WE PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED DUE TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS KEEPING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN RH
VALUES. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH LOW RH`S IN THE WARNING
AREAS.  THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR. THE DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND
THE WARNING WILL BE MADE TOMORROW. AS FAR AS THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL THIS EVENING AND
ON TUESDAY AND MAINLY FROM THE OCHOCO MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  90  57  85 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  66  92  63  86 /  10  10   0  10
PSC  62  94  59  90 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  59  88  56  84 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  62  93  58  88 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  62  87  57  83 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  50  87  46  82 /  20  10  10   0
LGD  55  88  51  82 /  10  10  10  10
GCD  56  91  53  86 /  20  10  10  10
DLS  65  88  60  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ611-639>641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94




000
FXUS66 KMFR 040300
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...04/00Z NAM IN.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WERE INITIALLY OVER THE
CASCADES...THEN MIGRATED TO THE EAST SIDE...EXCEPT FOR SOME NEAR
I-5 OVER NORTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. SOME OF THE STORMS
PRODUCED DIME SIZE HAIL. THOSE STORMS ARE ONGOING AT THIS
TIME...BUT ARE SLOWLY WEAKENING.

SMOKE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MAIN FIRES OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MANY NEW
STARTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH YESTERDAY`S LIGHTNING TO THE WEST
OF MEDFORD, SO THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH RELIEF IN SIGHT
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY.

A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE IS NOW APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT IT IS WELL AFTER MAX SURFACE HEATING AND THIS
LOOKS TO BE A NON-FACTOR AS FAR AS CONVECTION GOES.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING FLOW ALOFT BACK TO SOUTHERLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...THE FORECAST IS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH. HOWEVER...THIS MAY CHANGE AS
THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE WAVE. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS MAY KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA (MODOC...SOUTHEAST KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES).

ONCE THAT WAVE CLEARS OUT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL BRING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST
OVER THE FAR EAST SIDE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THOSE STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE BY EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT WARMER AS A RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR S.F. BAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A LARGER TROUGH MAY DIG
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND
RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/00Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS AT THE COAST WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AREAS OF SMOKE WILL PERSIST INLAND BRINGING A REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY AND LIMITED VERTICAL VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
ROGUE VALLEY, INCLUDING THE MEDFORD AIRPORT. FOR NOW THE SMOKE
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF ROSEBURG, BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVER THE CASCADES AND EAST
SIDE UNTIL 3-4Z WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS/VIS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NORTH
WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 800 PM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA AND THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE LATER THIS EVENING. ON TUESDAY THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR
DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL STABILIZE THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL
BE DRY BUT WARMER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
        ORZ617-621-623>625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM
        TUESDAY TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5
        PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
        WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11
        PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT
        TUESDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

15/15/15



000
FXUS66 KMFR 040300
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...04/00Z NAM IN.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WERE INITIALLY OVER THE
CASCADES...THEN MIGRATED TO THE EAST SIDE...EXCEPT FOR SOME NEAR
I-5 OVER NORTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. SOME OF THE STORMS
PRODUCED DIME SIZE HAIL. THOSE STORMS ARE ONGOING AT THIS
TIME...BUT ARE SLOWLY WEAKENING.

SMOKE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MAIN FIRES OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MANY NEW
STARTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH YESTERDAY`S LIGHTNING TO THE WEST
OF MEDFORD, SO THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH RELIEF IN SIGHT
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY.

A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE IS NOW APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT IT IS WELL AFTER MAX SURFACE HEATING AND THIS
LOOKS TO BE A NON-FACTOR AS FAR AS CONVECTION GOES.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING FLOW ALOFT BACK TO SOUTHERLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...THE FORECAST IS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH. HOWEVER...THIS MAY CHANGE AS
THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE WAVE. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS MAY KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA (MODOC...SOUTHEAST KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES).

ONCE THAT WAVE CLEARS OUT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL BRING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST
OVER THE FAR EAST SIDE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE FROM WEST TO EAST AND THOSE STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE BY EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT WARMER AS A RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR S.F. BAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A LARGER TROUGH MAY DIG
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND
RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/00Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS AT THE COAST WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AREAS OF SMOKE WILL PERSIST INLAND BRINGING A REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY AND LIMITED VERTICAL VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
ROGUE VALLEY, INCLUDING THE MEDFORD AIRPORT. FOR NOW THE SMOKE
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF ROSEBURG, BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVER THE CASCADES AND EAST
SIDE UNTIL 3-4Z WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS/VIS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NORTH
WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 800 PM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA AND THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE LATER THIS EVENING. ON TUESDAY THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR
DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL STABILIZE THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL
BE DRY BUT WARMER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
        ORZ617-621-623>625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM
        TUESDAY TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5
        PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
        WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11
        PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT
        TUESDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

15/15/15




000
FXUS66 KPDT 032240 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
340 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REMNANTS OF MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND OR THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING
AND THE TAPPER OFF TO JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS WE
TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MOISTURE
EAST AND SOUTH LEAVING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAPINE TO ENTERPRISE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO ALBERTA ON THURSDAY.
THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST DAYS THIS WEEK. WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FAVORS A DRY FORECAST BUT
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AND ADDRESSED IN THAT SECTION.



.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY EVENING.  EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
AREA.  DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON AREAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.  GFS
MODEL IS KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF OREGON...PROVIDING MORE
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  OVERALL HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
THE TIME PERIOD. WEBER


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR AT KBDN AND KRDM
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWERS.  THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ABOUT 30
MILES SSW OF KBDN AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY.  WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE
THE TAFS AS THEY NEAR.  WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST MAINLY IN
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE GORGE AREA.  EXPECT WINDS TO BE 15-
25KTS.  SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AT MOST SITES BETWEEN 6-10Z. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD ONLY GUST TO ABOUT
20KTS.  SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS MAY INVADE
INTO THE KALW AREA OVERNIGHT...DUE TO DRAINAGE SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER
THE INVERSION.  WEBER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND AREAS NEAR THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARABLE TO THE FORECAST...BUT RH`S ARE HIGHER THAN WE PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED DUE TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS KEEPING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN RH
VALUES. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH LOW RH`S IN THE WARNING
AREAS.  THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR. THE DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND
THE WARNING WILL BE MADE TOMORROW. AS FAR AS THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL THIS EVENING AND
ON TUESDAY AND MAINLY FROM THE OCHOCO MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  64  90  60  85 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  68  92  66  86 /  10  10   0  10
PSC  64  94  62  90 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  62  88  59  84 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  64  93  61  88 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  65  87  60  83 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  50  87  48  82 /  20  10  10   0
LGD  55  88  53  82 /  20  10  10  10
GCD  56  91  55  86 /  20  10  10  10
DLS  67  88  63  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ639-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89



000
FXUS66 KMFR 032155
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
255 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING
CONGESTED CUMULUS FIELDS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CASCADES. A CLUSTER OF CELLS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LAST HOUR BETWEEN DIAMOND LAKE AND CRESCENT.
EXPECT MORE TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. A SUBTLE BUT
REAL SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO
IGNITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS THAT EXTENDS FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO KLAMATH
AND LAKE COUNTIES, INCLUDING NEAR KLAMATH FALLS. RECENT SPC
MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPE IN THESE AREAS OF ABOUT
500-1500 J/KG WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
SISKIYOU/MARBLE MOUNTAINS. SMOKE IN THAT REGION MAY BE SOMEWHAT
HOLDING BACK CONVECTION, BUT STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS TO FIRE
THERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IF ANY CELLS DO FORM OVER THE
SISKIYOUS, THEY COULD DRIFT OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH END INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
WANE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY WITH MOSTLY
TRANQUIL WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

SMOKE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MAIN FIRES OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MANY NEW
STARTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH YESTERDAY`S LIGHTNING TO THE WEST
OF MEDFORD, SO THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH RELIEF IN SIGHT
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY.

ON TUESDAY, MODELS ARE NOW UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING ONSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. THE NAM12 YESTERDAY
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. THE SAME GENERAL AREAS THAT
GET STORMS TODAY WILL BE UNSTABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
SINCE THE BEST TRIGGER (THE SHORT WAVE) WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST DURING THE DAY, WE EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD COMPARED TO TODAY. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THIS MAY KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO
THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(MODOC, SOUTHEAST KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES).

BY WEDNESDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE
EXTREME SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A
TROUGH AXIS, BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
AS DRIER AIR APPEARS IT MAY WIN OUT.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN, YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR S.F. BAY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A LARGER TROUGH MAY DIG
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND
RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS AT THE COAST SHOULD RETREAT OFFSHORE FOR A
BRIEF TIME BEFORE RETURNING BETWEEN 1-2Z THIS EVENING AND LASTING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL PERSIST INLAND BRINGING
A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AND LIMITED VERTICAL VISIBILITIES,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, INCLUDING MEDFORD AIRPORT. FOR
NOW THE SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF ROSEBURG, BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES AND
EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG
WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NORTH
WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS EVENING. NORTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 250 PM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...AS
ANOTHER  WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP, MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE OREGON ZONES. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TODAY. A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION, DECREASING THE
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
FROM THE SISKIYOUS TO THE CASCADES, AND MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE.
NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, PUSHING THE
AREA OF INSTABILITY EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
RETURNS THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621-623>625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM
 TUESDAY TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5
     PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11
     PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/SBN/MAP




000
FXUS66 KMFR 032155
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
255 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING
CONGESTED CUMULUS FIELDS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CASCADES. A CLUSTER OF CELLS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LAST HOUR BETWEEN DIAMOND LAKE AND CRESCENT.
EXPECT MORE TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. A SUBTLE BUT
REAL SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO
IGNITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS THAT EXTENDS FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO KLAMATH
AND LAKE COUNTIES, INCLUDING NEAR KLAMATH FALLS. RECENT SPC
MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPE IN THESE AREAS OF ABOUT
500-1500 J/KG WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
SISKIYOU/MARBLE MOUNTAINS. SMOKE IN THAT REGION MAY BE SOMEWHAT
HOLDING BACK CONVECTION, BUT STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS TO FIRE
THERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IF ANY CELLS DO FORM OVER THE
SISKIYOUS, THEY COULD DRIFT OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH END INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
WANE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY WITH MOSTLY
TRANQUIL WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

SMOKE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MAIN FIRES OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MANY NEW
STARTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH YESTERDAY`S LIGHTNING TO THE WEST
OF MEDFORD, SO THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH RELIEF IN SIGHT
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY.

ON TUESDAY, MODELS ARE NOW UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING ONSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. THE NAM12 YESTERDAY
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. THE SAME GENERAL AREAS THAT
GET STORMS TODAY WILL BE UNSTABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
SINCE THE BEST TRIGGER (THE SHORT WAVE) WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST DURING THE DAY, WE EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD COMPARED TO TODAY. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THIS MAY KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO
THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(MODOC, SOUTHEAST KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES).

BY WEDNESDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE
EXTREME SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A
TROUGH AXIS, BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
AS DRIER AIR APPEARS IT MAY WIN OUT.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN, YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR S.F. BAY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A LARGER TROUGH MAY DIG
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND
RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS AT THE COAST SHOULD RETREAT OFFSHORE FOR A
BRIEF TIME BEFORE RETURNING BETWEEN 1-2Z THIS EVENING AND LASTING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL PERSIST INLAND BRINGING
A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AND LIMITED VERTICAL VISIBILITIES,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, INCLUDING MEDFORD AIRPORT. FOR
NOW THE SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF ROSEBURG, BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES AND
EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG
WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NORTH
WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS EVENING. NORTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 250 PM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...AS
ANOTHER  WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP, MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE OREGON ZONES. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TODAY. A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION, DECREASING THE
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
FROM THE SISKIYOUS TO THE CASCADES, AND MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE.
NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, PUSHING THE
AREA OF INSTABILITY EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
RETURNS THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621-623>625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM
 TUESDAY TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5
     PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11
     PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/SBN/MAP



000
FXUS66 KMFR 032152
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
252 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING
CONGESTED CUMULUS FIELDS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CASCADES. A CLUSTER OF CELLS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LAST HOUR BETWEEN DIAMOND LAKE AND CRESCENT.
EXPECT MORE TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. A SUBTLE BUT
REAL SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO
IGNITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS THAT EXTENDS FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO KLAMATH
AND LAKE COUNTIES, INCLUDING NEAR KLAMATH FALLS. RECENT SPC
MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPE IN THESE AREAS OF ABOUT
500-1500 J/KG WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
SISKIYOU/MARBLE MOUNTAINS. SMOKE IN THAT REGION MAY BE SOMEWHAT
HOLDING BACK CONVECTION, BUT STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS TO FIRE
THERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IF ANY CELLS DO FORM OVER THE
SISKIYOUS, THEY COULD DRIFT OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH END INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
WANE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY WITH MOSTLY
TRANQUIL WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

SMOKE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MAIN FIRES OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MANY NEW
STARTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH YESTERDAY`S LIGHTNING TO THE WEST
OF MEDFORD, SO THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH RELIEF IN SIGHT
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY.

ON TUESDAY, MODELS ARE NOW UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING ONSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. THE NAM12 YESTERDAY
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. THE SAME GENERAL AREAS THAT
GET STORMS TODAY WILL BE UNSTABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
SINCE THE BEST TRIGGER (THE SHORT WAVE) WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST DURING THE DAY, WE EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD COMPARED TO TODAY. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THIS MAY KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO
THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(MODOC, SOUTHEAST KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES).

BY WEDNESDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE
EXTREME SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A
TROUGH AXIS, BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
AS DRIER AIR APPEARS IT MAY WIN OUT.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN, YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR S.F. BAY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A LARGER TROUGH MAY DIG
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND
RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS AT THE COAST SHOULD RETREAT OFFSHORE FOR A
BRIEF TIME BEFORE RETURNING BETWEEN 1-2Z THIS EVENING AND LASTING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL PERSIST INLAND BRINGING
A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AND LIMITED VERTICAL VISIBILITIES,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, INCLUDING MEDFORD AIRPORT. FOR
NOW THE SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF ROSEBURG, BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES AND
EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG
WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NORTH
WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS EVENING. NORTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 250 PM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...AS
ANOTHER  WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP, MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE OREGON ZONES. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TODAY. A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION, DECREASING THE
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
FROM THE SISKIYOUS TO THE CASCADES, AND MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE.
NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, PUSHING THE
AREA OF INSTABILITY EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
RETURNS THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621-623>625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAS/SBN/MAP




000
FXUS66 KMFR 032152
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
252 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING
CONGESTED CUMULUS FIELDS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CASCADES. A CLUSTER OF CELLS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LAST HOUR BETWEEN DIAMOND LAKE AND CRESCENT.
EXPECT MORE TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. A SUBTLE BUT
REAL SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO
IGNITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS THAT EXTENDS FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO KLAMATH
AND LAKE COUNTIES, INCLUDING NEAR KLAMATH FALLS. RECENT SPC
MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPE IN THESE AREAS OF ABOUT
500-1500 J/KG WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
SISKIYOU/MARBLE MOUNTAINS. SMOKE IN THAT REGION MAY BE SOMEWHAT
HOLDING BACK CONVECTION, BUT STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS TO FIRE
THERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IF ANY CELLS DO FORM OVER THE
SISKIYOUS, THEY COULD DRIFT OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH END INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
WANE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY WITH MOSTLY
TRANQUIL WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

SMOKE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MAIN FIRES OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MANY NEW
STARTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH YESTERDAY`S LIGHTNING TO THE WEST
OF MEDFORD, SO THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH RELIEF IN SIGHT
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY.

ON TUESDAY, MODELS ARE NOW UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING ONSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE BAY AREA. THE NAM12 YESTERDAY
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. THE SAME GENERAL AREAS THAT
GET STORMS TODAY WILL BE UNSTABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
SINCE THE BEST TRIGGER (THE SHORT WAVE) WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST DURING THE DAY, WE EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD COMPARED TO TODAY. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THIS MAY KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO
THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(MODOC, SOUTHEAST KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES).

BY WEDNESDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE
EXTREME SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A
TROUGH AXIS, BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
AS DRIER AIR APPEARS IT MAY WIN OUT.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN, YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR S.F. BAY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A LARGER TROUGH MAY DIG
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND
RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS AT THE COAST SHOULD RETREAT OFFSHORE FOR A
BRIEF TIME BEFORE RETURNING BETWEEN 1-2Z THIS EVENING AND LASTING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL PERSIST INLAND BRINGING
A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AND LIMITED VERTICAL VISIBILITIES,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, INCLUDING MEDFORD AIRPORT. FOR
NOW THE SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF ROSEBURG, BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES AND
EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG
WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NORTH
WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS EVENING. NORTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 250 PM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...AS
ANOTHER  WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP, MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE OREGON ZONES. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TODAY. A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION, DECREASING THE
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
FROM THE SISKIYOUS TO THE CASCADES, AND MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE.
NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, PUSHING THE
AREA OF INSTABILITY EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
RETURNS THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621-623>625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAS/SBN/MAP



000
FXUS66 KPQR 032139
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
239 PM PDT MON AUG  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED NORTH INTO OREGON AND
WASHINGTON SUNDAY WAS MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR MORE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS...
AS WELL AS PRODUCE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL KEEP CONVECTION EAST
OF THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST... AND
HAS BEEN STEERING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE WAS MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...MORE LIKE
THE SLOWER NAM12 MODEL AND NOT LIKE THE FASTER GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

WE DID GET A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IN THE CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS ONE OTHER AREA MOVING OFF THE COAST RANGE INTO
THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THESE AREAS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY STILL SEE A FEW STORMS IN THE HIGHER CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THINGS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN
FAIRLY QUICKLY AS LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO THIN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BETTER HEATING...SO WE
STILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE TO REACH THE FORECAST AFTERNOON HIGHS.

THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST THAT IS ALREADY SAGGING
SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
FALL INTO THE UPPER 570S. LOOK FOR MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND IN
THE NORTH ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WEEK OR SO.
TEMPS WILL COOL INLAND AS WELL ON TUESDAY... WITH NEAR 80 NORTH BUT
STILL PROBABLY MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW AND MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
NORTH...POSSIBLY EVEN WORKING THEIR WAY MORE SOUTHWARD IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THAN ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
SUPPORT OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF SOME DRIZZLE ON THE NORTH COAST.
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
NORTH INTERIOR ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS NOT CERTAIN YET.
TEMPS INLAND IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE 75 TO 80 WITH 80
TO 85 NEAR EUGENE. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THURSDAY TO BE A WARMER DAY WITH MORE
SUNSHINE THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...WITH THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS
MAINLY NORTH AND CLEARING EARLIER THAN ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 90S LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER ON
FRIDAY THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALSO INTRODUCES A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OREGON CASCADES...MAINLY ALONG THE
CREST. THE SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS OCCURS AHEAD OF A UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIGGING DOWN OUT OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH OF THIS
SYSTEM...CREATING UNCERTAINTY WHICH SHOULD BECOME RESOLVED AS WE
APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT IF SYSTEM PLAYS OUT AS
FORECAST RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. MARINE
STRATUS WILL FILTER UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER OVERNIGHT AND BRING SOME
MVFR CIGS TO THE METRO TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-18Z. MORNING CIGS WILL
SCATTER OUT AND TURN VFR TUE AFTERNOON.

MVFR STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE NORTH COAST...WITH VFR CIGS OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST. CIGS OVER THE NORTH COAST LOOK TO SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO RETURN THIS
EVENING. IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z OVER THE CENTRAL COAST.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH TUE MORNING. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12-17Z. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TUE AFTERNOON. /64
&&

.MARINE...OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC AND LOWER PRES TO OUR S. THIS
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY TO 20 KT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. VARIATIONS IN THE
POSITION OF THE LOWER PRES COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF GUSTY ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND FOR TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS...AND FURTHER ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS.

SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS COULD BRING PERIODS OF STEEP
AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY TO THE CENTRAL WATERS. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEK AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS COULD PUSH SEAS
ABOVE 7 FT. /64
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     PDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 032112
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
212 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REMNANTS OF MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND OR THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING
AND THE TAPPER OFF TO JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS WE
TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MOISTURE
EAST AND SOUTH LEAVING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAPINE TO ENTERPRISE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO ALBERTA ON THURSDAY.
THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST DAYS THIS WEEK. WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FAVORS A DRY FORECAST BUT
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AND ADDRESSED IN THAT SECTION.



.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY EVENING.  EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
AREA.  DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON AREAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.  GFS
MODEL IS KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF OREGON...PROVIDING MORE
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  OVERALL HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
THE TIME PERIOD. WEBER


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE
BRIEF MVFR AT KBDN AND KRDM THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWERS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT WILL WAIT AND AMEND
TAFS AS NEEDED...DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST MAINLY IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE GORGE AREA.  EXPECT
WINDS TO BE 15-25KTS.  WEBER


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND AREAS NEAR THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARABLE TO THE FORECAST...BUT RH`S ARE HIGHER THAN WE PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED DUE TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS KEEPING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN RH
VALUES. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH LOW RH`S IN THE WARNING
AREAS.  THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR. THE DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND
THE WARNING WILL BE MADE TOMORROW. AS FAR AS THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL THIS EVENING AND
ON TUESDAY AND MAINLY FROM THE OCHOCO MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  64  90  60  85 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  68  92  66  86 /  10  10   0  10
PSC  64  94  62  90 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  62  88  59  84 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  64  93  61  88 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  65  87  60  83 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  50  87  48  82 /  20  10  10   0
LGD  55  88  53  82 /  20  10  10  10
GCD  56  91  55  86 /  20  10  10  10
DLS  67  88  63  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ639-641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89



000
FXUS65 KBOI 032102
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
302 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT UPPER LOW WAS IN SWRN WY AND MOVING NNE.
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN OUR CWA BUT
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HARNEY COUNTY HAS CLEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT AREA MAY BE
THE FIRST TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVES AWAY.  FEWER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW BETTER COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL COME THROUGH TUESDAY.  GREATER SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY.  INSTABILITY
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
AND CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OFF SRN CALIF WILL ADVECT INTO
OUR CWA AS AN UPPER TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN THAN FROM TONIGHT/S WEAK SHOWERS.  WEDNESDAY
WILL ALSO BE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING
AND CLEARING TREND BEHIND IT. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THURSDAY
AND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS NEXT LOW HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ACROSS MODELS
AND RUNS...WITH ITS ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROBABLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS HINT AT A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST...BUT ANY PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES...PRECIP...OR
MAJOR IMPACTS IS QUITE BLURRY RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING AFTER 04/09Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...UNTIL
04/04Z. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC
VALLEY UNTIL 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WSW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP/JC
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 032102
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
302 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT UPPER LOW WAS IN SWRN WY AND MOVING NNE.
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN OUR CWA BUT
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HARNEY COUNTY HAS CLEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT AREA MAY BE
THE FIRST TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVES AWAY.  FEWER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW BETTER COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL COME THROUGH TUESDAY.  GREATER SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY.  INSTABILITY
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
AND CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OFF SRN CALIF WILL ADVECT INTO
OUR CWA AS AN UPPER TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN THAN FROM TONIGHT/S WEAK SHOWERS.  WEDNESDAY
WILL ALSO BE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING
AND CLEARING TREND BEHIND IT. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THURSDAY
AND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS NEXT LOW HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ACROSS MODELS
AND RUNS...WITH ITS ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROBABLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS HINT AT A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST...BUT ANY PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES...PRECIP...OR
MAJOR IMPACTS IS QUITE BLURRY RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING AFTER 04/09Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...UNTIL
04/04Z. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC
VALLEY UNTIL 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WSW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP/JC
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS66 KPDT 031720 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OREGON MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. CLOUDY COVER WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
TODAY SO AS TO NOT BE SO HOT AS PAST DAYS. ALSO EXPECT SOME
INCREASING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIOD THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR AT KBDN AND KRDM
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWERS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...BUT WILL WAIT AND AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED...DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST MAINLY IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE GORGE AREA.  EXPECT WINDS TO BE 15-25KTS.
WEBER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 9 PM
TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CREATE A WESTERLY
FLOW OVER WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON AND WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
ONSHORE FLOW TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS
WILL CAUSE MARINE AIR TO SPILL THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS AND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR INCREASING WIND IN THE WARNING AREAS. RH`S
HAVE BEEN BRUTALLY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND (5-15 PERCENT) AND WILL ONLY
INCREASE INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S TODAY AND TUESDAY. WISTER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THUS WILL SEE THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. THUS WILL GRADUALLY SEE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
PACNW BE PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION. THERE WILL REMAIN THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OREGON, WITH LESSER CHANCES INTO THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WALLOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE
TODAY EXPECT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SPRINKLES. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE INCREASINGLY WESTERLY TODAY. THUS EXPECT COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AT MOST, IF NOT ALL, LOCATIONS. AS THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WILL SEE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE SUCH THAT ONLY OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE AFFECTED. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
PATTERN IN THE WESTERLIES WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ON WEDNESDAY SETS UP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH STABLE
AIRMASS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY THROUGH SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST
OREGON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG HIGH RIDGE
IN FAR EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ENDS BEFORE SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND INTO IDAHO/MONTANA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE DRY SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW, WE WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING A MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON A MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND ALLOWS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OREGON FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN OREGON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ALLOWS AN INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  91  64  91  56 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  92  68  92  63 /  10  10  10  10
PSC  95  64  95  56 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  89  62  91  55 /  10  10   0   0
HRI  94  64  94  55 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  91  65  87  58 /  10  10   0   0
RDM  86  50  88  46 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  87  55  88  49 /  20  20  20  10
GCD  90  56  91  50 /  20  20  20  10
DLS  91  67  88  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ639-
     641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR WAZ639-
     641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89



000
FXUS66 KPDT 031720 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OREGON MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. CLOUDY COVER WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
TODAY SO AS TO NOT BE SO HOT AS PAST DAYS. ALSO EXPECT SOME
INCREASING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIOD THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR AT KBDN AND KRDM
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWERS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...BUT WILL WAIT AND AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED...DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST MAINLY IN THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE GORGE AREA.  EXPECT WINDS TO BE 15-25KTS.
WEBER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 9 PM
TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CREATE A WESTERLY
FLOW OVER WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON AND WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
ONSHORE FLOW TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS
WILL CAUSE MARINE AIR TO SPILL THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS AND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR INCREASING WIND IN THE WARNING AREAS. RH`S
HAVE BEEN BRUTALLY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND (5-15 PERCENT) AND WILL ONLY
INCREASE INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S TODAY AND TUESDAY. WISTER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THUS WILL SEE THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. THUS WILL GRADUALLY SEE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
PACNW BE PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION. THERE WILL REMAIN THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OREGON, WITH LESSER CHANCES INTO THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WALLOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE
TODAY EXPECT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SPRINKLES. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE INCREASINGLY WESTERLY TODAY. THUS EXPECT COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AT MOST, IF NOT ALL, LOCATIONS. AS THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WILL SEE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE SUCH THAT ONLY OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE AFFECTED. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
PATTERN IN THE WESTERLIES WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ON WEDNESDAY SETS UP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH STABLE
AIRMASS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY THROUGH SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST
OREGON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG HIGH RIDGE
IN FAR EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ENDS BEFORE SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND INTO IDAHO/MONTANA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE DRY SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW, WE WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING A MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON A MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND ALLOWS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OREGON FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN OREGON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ALLOWS AN INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  91  64  91  56 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  92  68  92  63 /  10  10  10  10
PSC  95  64  95  56 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  89  62  91  55 /  10  10   0   0
HRI  94  64  94  55 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  91  65  87  58 /  10  10   0   0
RDM  86  50  88  46 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  87  55  88  49 /  20  20  20  10
GCD  90  56  91  50 /  20  20  20  10
DLS  91  67  88  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ639-
     641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR WAZ639-
     641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031638
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
938 AM PDT MON AUG  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED NORTH INTO OREGON AND
WASHINGTON SUNDAY WAS STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...
AND WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MORE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS...AS WELL AS PRODUCE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PUSH CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF
RESPITE LATE IN THE WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...
STEERING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF MOISTURE LINGERS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE FINALLY
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT FASTER ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THAN THE NAM12. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CLOUDS BREAK AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...WE STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...AND FINALLY HAVE A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES NEAR OAKRIDGE IN THE PAST HOUR. THERE ARE A FEW ECHOES
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. THESE WILL NOT END UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH THE
CONVECTION LATER TODAY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.

THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST THAT IS ALREADY SAGGING
SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
FALL INTO THE UPPER 570S. LOOK FOR MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND IN
THE NORTH ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WEEK OR SO.
TEMPS WILL COOL INLAND AS WELL...WITH NEAR 80 NORTH BUT STILL MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW AND MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH.
TEMPS INLAND IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WILL BE 75 TO 80 WITH 80 TO 85
NEAR EUGENE. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH DECREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80S
BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH
REGARDS TO ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. AS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY
POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE LIGHTNING THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS
CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...MARINE STRATUS LOOKS TO PUSH UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER EARLY TUE MORNING AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS TO THE METRO TERMINALS.

MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR MARINE
STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
MID/HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z TUE AS MARINE STRATUS PUSHES UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. /64
&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUSPECT
AN ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE NECESSARY.

MEANWHILE...OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING A FEW FEET TODAY...BUT
GIVEN THAT SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD AND WIND DRIVEN WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA TODAY...BUT AN ADVISOR FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME. /64/CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031638
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
938 AM PDT MON AUG  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED NORTH INTO OREGON AND
WASHINGTON SUNDAY WAS STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...
AND WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MORE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS...AS WELL AS PRODUCE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PUSH CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF
RESPITE LATE IN THE WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...
STEERING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF MOISTURE LINGERS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE FINALLY
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT FASTER ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THAN THE NAM12. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CLOUDS BREAK AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...WE STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...AND FINALLY HAVE A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES NEAR OAKRIDGE IN THE PAST HOUR. THERE ARE A FEW ECHOES
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. THESE WILL NOT END UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH THE
CONVECTION LATER TODAY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.

THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST THAT IS ALREADY SAGGING
SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
FALL INTO THE UPPER 570S. LOOK FOR MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND IN
THE NORTH ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WEEK OR SO.
TEMPS WILL COOL INLAND AS WELL...WITH NEAR 80 NORTH BUT STILL MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW AND MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH.
TEMPS INLAND IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WILL BE 75 TO 80 WITH 80 TO 85
NEAR EUGENE. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH DECREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80S
BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH
REGARDS TO ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. AS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY
POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE LIGHTNING THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS
CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...MARINE STRATUS LOOKS TO PUSH UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER EARLY TUE MORNING AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS TO THE METRO TERMINALS.

MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR MARINE
STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
MID/HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z TUE AS MARINE STRATUS PUSHES UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. /64
&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUSPECT
AN ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE NECESSARY.

MEANWHILE...OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING A FEW FEET TODAY...BUT
GIVEN THAT SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD AND WIND DRIVEN WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA TODAY...BUT AN ADVISOR FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME. /64/CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031638
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
938 AM PDT MON AUG  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED NORTH INTO OREGON AND
WASHINGTON SUNDAY WAS STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...
AND WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MORE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS...AS WELL AS PRODUCE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PUSH CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF
RESPITE LATE IN THE WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...
STEERING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF MOISTURE LINGERS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE FINALLY
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT FASTER ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THAN THE NAM12. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CLOUDS BREAK AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...WE STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...AND FINALLY HAVE A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES NEAR OAKRIDGE IN THE PAST HOUR. THERE ARE A FEW ECHOES
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. THESE WILL NOT END UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH THE
CONVECTION LATER TODAY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.

THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST THAT IS ALREADY SAGGING
SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
FALL INTO THE UPPER 570S. LOOK FOR MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND IN
THE NORTH ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WEEK OR SO.
TEMPS WILL COOL INLAND AS WELL...WITH NEAR 80 NORTH BUT STILL MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW AND MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH.
TEMPS INLAND IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WILL BE 75 TO 80 WITH 80 TO 85
NEAR EUGENE. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH DECREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80S
BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH
REGARDS TO ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. AS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY
POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE LIGHTNING THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS
CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...MARINE STRATUS LOOKS TO PUSH UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER EARLY TUE MORNING AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS TO THE METRO TERMINALS.

MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR MARINE
STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
MID/HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z TUE AS MARINE STRATUS PUSHES UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. /64
&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUSPECT
AN ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE NECESSARY.

MEANWHILE...OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING A FEW FEET TODAY...BUT
GIVEN THAT SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD AND WIND DRIVEN WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA TODAY...BUT AN ADVISOR FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME. /64/CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 031638
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
938 AM PDT MON AUG  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED NORTH INTO OREGON AND
WASHINGTON SUNDAY WAS STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...
AND WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MORE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS...AS WELL AS PRODUCE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PUSH CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF
RESPITE LATE IN THE WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...
STEERING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF MOISTURE LINGERS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE FINALLY
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BIT FASTER ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THAN THE NAM12. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CLOUDS BREAK AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...WE STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...AND FINALLY HAVE A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES NEAR OAKRIDGE IN THE PAST HOUR. THERE ARE A FEW ECHOES
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. THESE WILL NOT END UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH THE
CONVECTION LATER TODAY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.

THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST THAT IS ALREADY SAGGING
SOUTH TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
FALL INTO THE UPPER 570S. LOOK FOR MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND IN
THE NORTH ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WEEK OR SO.
TEMPS WILL COOL INLAND AS WELL...WITH NEAR 80 NORTH BUT STILL MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR EUGENE.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW AND MORE MORNING LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH.
TEMPS INLAND IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WILL BE 75 TO 80 WITH 80 TO 85
NEAR EUGENE. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH DECREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80S
BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH
REGARDS TO ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. AS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY
POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE LIGHTNING THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS
CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...MARINE STRATUS LOOKS TO PUSH UP THE
COLUMBIA RIVER EARLY TUE MORNING AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS TO THE METRO TERMINALS.

MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR MARINE
STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
MID/HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z TUE AS MARINE STRATUS PUSHES UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. /64
&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUSPECT
AN ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE NECESSARY.

MEANWHILE...OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING A FEW FEET TODAY...BUT
GIVEN THAT SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD AND WIND DRIVEN WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA TODAY...BUT AN ADVISOR FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME. /64/CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 031618
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
918 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE VORTICITY LOBE THAT MOVED NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS NOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING, UP AROUND LEMOLO LAKE, BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING TO REMOVE ANY
THUNDER THREAT. THERE`S STILL A LOT OF SMOKE OUT THERE THIS
MORNING AND THERE REALLY DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANYTHING ON THE
IMMEDIATE HORIZON TO MOVE IT OUT OF HERE, SO WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP IT
IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CLOUD COVER IS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THIN OUT LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL SHOW PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY
WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG,
BUT MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS IS MINIMAL AND THINK THIS WILL BE
A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF MEDFORD. WE
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN JOSEPHINE/JACKSON COUNTIES. MOISTURE
IS HIGHER IN THE MID-LEVELS FROM THE MARBLE/SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE IN OREGON
(MAINLY NORTH OF LAKEVIEW) WHERE INSTABILITY IS SIMILAR. SO EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING THE BEST ACTIVITY TO BE
ACROSS KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY FOR THE SAME
GENERAL LOCATIONS. OVERALL, TODAY AND TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH FOR MEDFORD MEANS
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS AT THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE
LATE THIS MORNING, THEN RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
PRODUCE MVFR VIS OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON, INCLUDING KMFR AND KLMT AT
TIMES. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRES
PRODUCE MORE SMOKE. WE WILL ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS/VIS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SUNDAY 2 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER LATER IN
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...APPROXIMATELY 1000 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN RECORDED BY BLM LIGHTNING IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN AN
AVERAGE OF 12 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WERE UP, LEADING TO SOME RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST AREAS STILL RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10",
AREAS THAT GOT MORE LIGHTNING SUCH AS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND LAKEVIEW, CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES, AND MODOC AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES DID GENERALLY GET 0.10" OR MORE. A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY RESULTED IN
WIND GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH AS WELL AS RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.30-0.80"
RANGE. IN OTHER AREAS, SUCH AS JACKSON COUNTY AND AREAS ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE RESULTED IN COOLING
WHICH PREVENTED MORE THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES.

THIS MORNING OUR CONVERGENT 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT HAS BEEN
IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH IT`S ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS IS STILL DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THIS FEATURE IS OF UTMOST CONCERN TODAY BECAUSE A
RETURN OF PRONOUNCED SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE AND
NOW AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODEL 850MB COMPUTED
LIFTED INDICES ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -5C ON THE GFS20 AND -4C
TO -8C ON THE NAM12 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ABOUT THE
OREGON CAVES AREA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE,
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS, ACROSS THE SISKIYOUS, AND
IN THE CASCADES. IN FACT, FOR THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE GREATEST CAPE VALUES DEPICTED IN THE LAST
4 DAYS OVER THE AREA, WHICH MEANS THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY,
EVEN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN MANY AREAS APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY MOISTURE IN THE 600-500MB LAYER. IN SHORT, WE
EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ASTOUNDING TODAY,
BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING WHERE THEY DO OCCUR.

ADDITIONALLY, FOR ACTIVE WILDFIRE AREAS, KNOWN AND UNKNOWN, WHERE
UPSTREAM SMOKE DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SUNSHINE, WE EXPECT
THAT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE COLUMNS TO DEVELOP THUNDERSHOWERS OVER
AREAS OF FOCUSED HEAT.

RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE CASCADES,
SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE OREGON EAST
SIDE. LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT NEW FIRE STARTS THAT COULD SPREAD
FROM OUTFLOW WINDS ARE OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT WE SHOULD FINALLY CATCH A BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO PERCOLATE NORTH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
EXPECT STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE SLOW MOVERS AND
ISOLATED EXCEPT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH HUMIDITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF NEW STARTS, BUT WE`LL NEED TO GET A CHECK ON FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS TO DETERMINE IF ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED THERE. OF NOTE, IT APPEARS THERE WERE AT LEAST 12 NEW FIRES
REPORTED IN THAT AREA IN THE LAST 2 DAYS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LIKELY COOLER THAN THE CURRENT ONE,
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BTL

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 AM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH OF US. WE CAN`T REALLY RULE OUT A FEW RANDOM
STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL ALL
THAT`S LEFT ARE SHOWERS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
DECREASE. AS A RESULT, ALL REMAINING RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN DROPPED.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A LOT OF CLOUD OVER THE AREA, BUT SATELLITE
SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING SOUTH OF US WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS AND ANOTHER OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE OVER US THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING SOME SUN BACK TO THE AREA AND START THE
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
HEATING, MODEST COOLING ALOFT, AND MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS, WILL RESULT IN SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. AS MENTIONED, THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AXIS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH HERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE ALREADY HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
SIDE, WHICH LOOKS FINE, BUT RED FLAGS WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A STORM TO GET
OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 622 (ROGUE VALLEY), BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY WEST SIDE VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AT THIS TIME. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621-623.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAS/BTL/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 031618
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
918 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE VORTICITY LOBE THAT MOVED NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS NOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING, UP AROUND LEMOLO LAKE, BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING TO REMOVE ANY
THUNDER THREAT. THERE`S STILL A LOT OF SMOKE OUT THERE THIS
MORNING AND THERE REALLY DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANYTHING ON THE
IMMEDIATE HORIZON TO MOVE IT OUT OF HERE, SO WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP IT
IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CLOUD COVER IS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THIN OUT LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL SHOW PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY
WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG,
BUT MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS IS MINIMAL AND THINK THIS WILL BE
A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF MEDFORD. WE
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN JOSEPHINE/JACKSON COUNTIES. MOISTURE
IS HIGHER IN THE MID-LEVELS FROM THE MARBLE/SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE IN OREGON
(MAINLY NORTH OF LAKEVIEW) WHERE INSTABILITY IS SIMILAR. SO EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING THE BEST ACTIVITY TO BE
ACROSS KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY FOR THE SAME
GENERAL LOCATIONS. OVERALL, TODAY AND TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH FOR MEDFORD MEANS
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS AT THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE
LATE THIS MORNING, THEN RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
PRODUCE MVFR VIS OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON, INCLUDING KMFR AND KLMT AT
TIMES. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRES
PRODUCE MORE SMOKE. WE WILL ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS/VIS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SUNDAY 2 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER LATER IN
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...APPROXIMATELY 1000 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN RECORDED BY BLM LIGHTNING IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN AN
AVERAGE OF 12 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WERE UP, LEADING TO SOME RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST AREAS STILL RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10",
AREAS THAT GOT MORE LIGHTNING SUCH AS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND LAKEVIEW, CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES, AND MODOC AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES DID GENERALLY GET 0.10" OR MORE. A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY RESULTED IN
WIND GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH AS WELL AS RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.30-0.80"
RANGE. IN OTHER AREAS, SUCH AS JACKSON COUNTY AND AREAS ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE RESULTED IN COOLING
WHICH PREVENTED MORE THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES.

THIS MORNING OUR CONVERGENT 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT HAS BEEN
IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH IT`S ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS IS STILL DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THIS FEATURE IS OF UTMOST CONCERN TODAY BECAUSE A
RETURN OF PRONOUNCED SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE AND
NOW AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODEL 850MB COMPUTED
LIFTED INDICES ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -5C ON THE GFS20 AND -4C
TO -8C ON THE NAM12 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ABOUT THE
OREGON CAVES AREA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE,
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS, ACROSS THE SISKIYOUS, AND
IN THE CASCADES. IN FACT, FOR THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE GREATEST CAPE VALUES DEPICTED IN THE LAST
4 DAYS OVER THE AREA, WHICH MEANS THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY,
EVEN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN MANY AREAS APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY MOISTURE IN THE 600-500MB LAYER. IN SHORT, WE
EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ASTOUNDING TODAY,
BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING WHERE THEY DO OCCUR.

ADDITIONALLY, FOR ACTIVE WILDFIRE AREAS, KNOWN AND UNKNOWN, WHERE
UPSTREAM SMOKE DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SUNSHINE, WE EXPECT
THAT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE COLUMNS TO DEVELOP THUNDERSHOWERS OVER
AREAS OF FOCUSED HEAT.

RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE CASCADES,
SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE OREGON EAST
SIDE. LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT NEW FIRE STARTS THAT COULD SPREAD
FROM OUTFLOW WINDS ARE OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT WE SHOULD FINALLY CATCH A BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO PERCOLATE NORTH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
EXPECT STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE SLOW MOVERS AND
ISOLATED EXCEPT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH HUMIDITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF NEW STARTS, BUT WE`LL NEED TO GET A CHECK ON FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS TO DETERMINE IF ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED THERE. OF NOTE, IT APPEARS THERE WERE AT LEAST 12 NEW FIRES
REPORTED IN THAT AREA IN THE LAST 2 DAYS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LIKELY COOLER THAN THE CURRENT ONE,
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BTL

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 AM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH OF US. WE CAN`T REALLY RULE OUT A FEW RANDOM
STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL ALL
THAT`S LEFT ARE SHOWERS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
DECREASE. AS A RESULT, ALL REMAINING RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN DROPPED.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A LOT OF CLOUD OVER THE AREA, BUT SATELLITE
SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING SOUTH OF US WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS AND ANOTHER OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE OVER US THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING SOME SUN BACK TO THE AREA AND START THE
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
HEATING, MODEST COOLING ALOFT, AND MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS, WILL RESULT IN SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. AS MENTIONED, THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AXIS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH HERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE ALREADY HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
SIDE, WHICH LOOKS FINE, BUT RED FLAGS WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A STORM TO GET
OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 622 (ROGUE VALLEY), BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY WEST SIDE VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AT THIS TIME. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621-623.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAS/BTL/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 031618
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
918 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE VORTICITY LOBE THAT MOVED NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS NOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING, UP AROUND LEMOLO LAKE, BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING TO REMOVE ANY
THUNDER THREAT. THERE`S STILL A LOT OF SMOKE OUT THERE THIS
MORNING AND THERE REALLY DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANYTHING ON THE
IMMEDIATE HORIZON TO MOVE IT OUT OF HERE, SO WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP IT
IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CLOUD COVER IS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THIN OUT LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL SHOW PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY
WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG,
BUT MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS IS MINIMAL AND THINK THIS WILL BE
A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF MEDFORD. WE
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN JOSEPHINE/JACKSON COUNTIES. MOISTURE
IS HIGHER IN THE MID-LEVELS FROM THE MARBLE/SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE IN OREGON
(MAINLY NORTH OF LAKEVIEW) WHERE INSTABILITY IS SIMILAR. SO EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING THE BEST ACTIVITY TO BE
ACROSS KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY FOR THE SAME
GENERAL LOCATIONS. OVERALL, TODAY AND TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH FOR MEDFORD MEANS
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS AT THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE
LATE THIS MORNING, THEN RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
PRODUCE MVFR VIS OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON, INCLUDING KMFR AND KLMT AT
TIMES. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRES
PRODUCE MORE SMOKE. WE WILL ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS/VIS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SUNDAY 2 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER LATER IN
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...APPROXIMATELY 1000 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN RECORDED BY BLM LIGHTNING IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN AN
AVERAGE OF 12 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WERE UP, LEADING TO SOME RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST AREAS STILL RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10",
AREAS THAT GOT MORE LIGHTNING SUCH AS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND LAKEVIEW, CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES, AND MODOC AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES DID GENERALLY GET 0.10" OR MORE. A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY RESULTED IN
WIND GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH AS WELL AS RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.30-0.80"
RANGE. IN OTHER AREAS, SUCH AS JACKSON COUNTY AND AREAS ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE RESULTED IN COOLING
WHICH PREVENTED MORE THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES.

THIS MORNING OUR CONVERGENT 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT HAS BEEN
IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH IT`S ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS IS STILL DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THIS FEATURE IS OF UTMOST CONCERN TODAY BECAUSE A
RETURN OF PRONOUNCED SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE AND
NOW AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODEL 850MB COMPUTED
LIFTED INDICES ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -5C ON THE GFS20 AND -4C
TO -8C ON THE NAM12 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ABOUT THE
OREGON CAVES AREA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE,
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS, ACROSS THE SISKIYOUS, AND
IN THE CASCADES. IN FACT, FOR THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE GREATEST CAPE VALUES DEPICTED IN THE LAST
4 DAYS OVER THE AREA, WHICH MEANS THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY,
EVEN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN MANY AREAS APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY MOISTURE IN THE 600-500MB LAYER. IN SHORT, WE
EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ASTOUNDING TODAY,
BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING WHERE THEY DO OCCUR.

ADDITIONALLY, FOR ACTIVE WILDFIRE AREAS, KNOWN AND UNKNOWN, WHERE
UPSTREAM SMOKE DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SUNSHINE, WE EXPECT
THAT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE COLUMNS TO DEVELOP THUNDERSHOWERS OVER
AREAS OF FOCUSED HEAT.

RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE CASCADES,
SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE OREGON EAST
SIDE. LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT NEW FIRE STARTS THAT COULD SPREAD
FROM OUTFLOW WINDS ARE OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT WE SHOULD FINALLY CATCH A BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO PERCOLATE NORTH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
EXPECT STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE SLOW MOVERS AND
ISOLATED EXCEPT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH HUMIDITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF NEW STARTS, BUT WE`LL NEED TO GET A CHECK ON FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS TO DETERMINE IF ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED THERE. OF NOTE, IT APPEARS THERE WERE AT LEAST 12 NEW FIRES
REPORTED IN THAT AREA IN THE LAST 2 DAYS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LIKELY COOLER THAN THE CURRENT ONE,
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BTL

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 AM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH OF US. WE CAN`T REALLY RULE OUT A FEW RANDOM
STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL ALL
THAT`S LEFT ARE SHOWERS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
DECREASE. AS A RESULT, ALL REMAINING RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN DROPPED.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A LOT OF CLOUD OVER THE AREA, BUT SATELLITE
SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING SOUTH OF US WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS AND ANOTHER OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE OVER US THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING SOME SUN BACK TO THE AREA AND START THE
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
HEATING, MODEST COOLING ALOFT, AND MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS, WILL RESULT IN SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. AS MENTIONED, THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AXIS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH HERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE ALREADY HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
SIDE, WHICH LOOKS FINE, BUT RED FLAGS WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A STORM TO GET
OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 622 (ROGUE VALLEY), BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY WEST SIDE VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AT THIS TIME. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621-623.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAS/BTL/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 031618
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
918 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE VORTICITY LOBE THAT MOVED NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS NOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING, UP AROUND LEMOLO LAKE, BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING TO REMOVE ANY
THUNDER THREAT. THERE`S STILL A LOT OF SMOKE OUT THERE THIS
MORNING AND THERE REALLY DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANYTHING ON THE
IMMEDIATE HORIZON TO MOVE IT OUT OF HERE, SO WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP IT
IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CLOUD COVER IS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THIN OUT LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL SHOW PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY
WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG,
BUT MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS IS MINIMAL AND THINK THIS WILL BE
A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF MEDFORD. WE
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN JOSEPHINE/JACKSON COUNTIES. MOISTURE
IS HIGHER IN THE MID-LEVELS FROM THE MARBLE/SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE IN OREGON
(MAINLY NORTH OF LAKEVIEW) WHERE INSTABILITY IS SIMILAR. SO EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING THE BEST ACTIVITY TO BE
ACROSS KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY FOR THE SAME
GENERAL LOCATIONS. OVERALL, TODAY AND TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH FOR MEDFORD MEANS
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS AT THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE
LATE THIS MORNING, THEN RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
PRODUCE MVFR VIS OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON, INCLUDING KMFR AND KLMT AT
TIMES. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRES
PRODUCE MORE SMOKE. WE WILL ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS/VIS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SUNDAY 2 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER LATER IN
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...APPROXIMATELY 1000 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN RECORDED BY BLM LIGHTNING IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN AN
AVERAGE OF 12 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WERE UP, LEADING TO SOME RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST AREAS STILL RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10",
AREAS THAT GOT MORE LIGHTNING SUCH AS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND LAKEVIEW, CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES, AND MODOC AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES DID GENERALLY GET 0.10" OR MORE. A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY RESULTED IN
WIND GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH AS WELL AS RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.30-0.80"
RANGE. IN OTHER AREAS, SUCH AS JACKSON COUNTY AND AREAS ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE RESULTED IN COOLING
WHICH PREVENTED MORE THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES.

THIS MORNING OUR CONVERGENT 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT HAS BEEN
IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH IT`S ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS IS STILL DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THIS FEATURE IS OF UTMOST CONCERN TODAY BECAUSE A
RETURN OF PRONOUNCED SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE AND
NOW AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODEL 850MB COMPUTED
LIFTED INDICES ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -5C ON THE GFS20 AND -4C
TO -8C ON THE NAM12 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ABOUT THE
OREGON CAVES AREA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE,
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS, ACROSS THE SISKIYOUS, AND
IN THE CASCADES. IN FACT, FOR THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE GREATEST CAPE VALUES DEPICTED IN THE LAST
4 DAYS OVER THE AREA, WHICH MEANS THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY,
EVEN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN MANY AREAS APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY MOISTURE IN THE 600-500MB LAYER. IN SHORT, WE
EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ASTOUNDING TODAY,
BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING WHERE THEY DO OCCUR.

ADDITIONALLY, FOR ACTIVE WILDFIRE AREAS, KNOWN AND UNKNOWN, WHERE
UPSTREAM SMOKE DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SUNSHINE, WE EXPECT
THAT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE COLUMNS TO DEVELOP THUNDERSHOWERS OVER
AREAS OF FOCUSED HEAT.

RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE CASCADES,
SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE OREGON EAST
SIDE. LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT NEW FIRE STARTS THAT COULD SPREAD
FROM OUTFLOW WINDS ARE OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT WE SHOULD FINALLY CATCH A BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO PERCOLATE NORTH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
EXPECT STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE SLOW MOVERS AND
ISOLATED EXCEPT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH HUMIDITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF NEW STARTS, BUT WE`LL NEED TO GET A CHECK ON FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS TO DETERMINE IF ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED THERE. OF NOTE, IT APPEARS THERE WERE AT LEAST 12 NEW FIRES
REPORTED IN THAT AREA IN THE LAST 2 DAYS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LIKELY COOLER THAN THE CURRENT ONE,
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BTL

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 AM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH OF US. WE CAN`T REALLY RULE OUT A FEW RANDOM
STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL ALL
THAT`S LEFT ARE SHOWERS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
DECREASE. AS A RESULT, ALL REMAINING RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN DROPPED.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A LOT OF CLOUD OVER THE AREA, BUT SATELLITE
SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING SOUTH OF US WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS AND ANOTHER OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE OVER US THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING SOME SUN BACK TO THE AREA AND START THE
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
HEATING, MODEST COOLING ALOFT, AND MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS, WILL RESULT IN SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. AS MENTIONED, THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AXIS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH HERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE ALREADY HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
SIDE, WHICH LOOKS FINE, BUT RED FLAGS WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A STORM TO GET
OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 622 (ROGUE VALLEY), BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY WEST SIDE VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AT THIS TIME. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621-623.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAS/BTL/TRW




000
FXUS66 KPDT 031540
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
839 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OREGON MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. CLOUDY COVER WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
TODAY SO AS TO NOT BE SO HOT AS PAST DAYS. ALSO EXPECT SOME
INCREASING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIOD THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 9 PM
TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CREATE A WESTERLY
FLOW OVER WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON AND WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
ONSHORE FLOW TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS
WILL CAUSE MARINE AIR TO SPILL THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS AND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR INCREASING WIND IN THE WARNING AREAS. RH`S
HAVE BEEN BRUTALLY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND (5-15 PERCENT) AND WILL ONLY
INCREASE INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S TODAY AND TUESDAY. WISTER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THUS WILL SEE THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. THUS WILL GRADUALLY SEE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
PACNW BE PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION. THERE WILL REMAIN THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OREGON, WITH LESSER CHANCES INTO THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WALLOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE
TODAY EXPECT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SPRINKLES. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE INCREASINGLY WESTERLY TODAY. THUS EXPECT COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AT MOST, IF NOT ALL, LOCATIONS. AS THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WILL SEE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE SUCH THAT ONLY OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE AFFECTED. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
PATTERN IN THE WESTERLIES WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ON WEDNESDAY SETS UP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH STABLE
AIRMASS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY THROUGH SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST
OREGON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG HIGH RIDGE
IN FAR EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ENDS BEFORE SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND INTO IDAHO/MONTANA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE DRY SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW, WE WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING A MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON A MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND ALLOWS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OREGON FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN OREGON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ALLOWS AN INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POLAN

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR AT KBDN AND KRDM
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST MAINLY IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SURROUNDING
VALLEYS AND THE RIDGE TOPS AS COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION TODAY.  POLAN

FIRE WEATHER...STILL ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED AND
GUSTY WINDS TODAY IN AND NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND PORTIONS
OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS
EVENING, THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE FROM THE VERY LOW VALUES THIS
WEEKEND, BUT WILL REMAIN LOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT RED
FLAG WATCHES. ALSO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DISTRICTS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF
LIGHTNING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  91  64  91  56 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  92  68  92  63 /  10  10  10  10
PSC  95  64  95  56 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  89  62  91  55 /  10  10   0   0
HRI  94  64  94  55 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  91  65  87  58 /  10  10   0   0
RDM  86  50  88  46 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  87  55  88  49 /  20  20  20  10
GCD  90  56  91  50 /  20  20  20  10
DLS  91  67  88  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ639-
     641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR WAZ639-
     641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 031540
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
839 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OREGON MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. CLOUDY COVER WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
TODAY SO AS TO NOT BE SO HOT AS PAST DAYS. ALSO EXPECT SOME
INCREASING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIOD THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 9 PM
TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CREATE A WESTERLY
FLOW OVER WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON AND WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
ONSHORE FLOW TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER WEST OF THE CASCADES. THIS
WILL CAUSE MARINE AIR TO SPILL THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS AND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FOR INCREASING WIND IN THE WARNING AREAS. RH`S
HAVE BEEN BRUTALLY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND (5-15 PERCENT) AND WILL ONLY
INCREASE INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S TODAY AND TUESDAY. WISTER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THUS WILL SEE THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. THUS WILL GRADUALLY SEE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
PACNW BE PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION. THERE WILL REMAIN THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OREGON, WITH LESSER CHANCES INTO THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WALLOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE
TODAY EXPECT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SPRINKLES. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE INCREASINGLY WESTERLY TODAY. THUS EXPECT COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AT MOST, IF NOT ALL, LOCATIONS. AS THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WILL SEE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE SUCH THAT ONLY OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE AFFECTED. 90

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
PATTERN IN THE WESTERLIES WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ON WEDNESDAY SETS UP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH STABLE
AIRMASS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY THROUGH SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST
OREGON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG HIGH RIDGE
IN FAR EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ENDS BEFORE SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND INTO IDAHO/MONTANA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE DRY SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW, WE WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING A MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON A MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND ALLOWS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OREGON FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN OREGON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ALLOWS AN INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POLAN

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR AT KBDN AND KRDM
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST MAINLY IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SURROUNDING
VALLEYS AND THE RIDGE TOPS AS COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION TODAY.  POLAN

FIRE WEATHER...STILL ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED AND
GUSTY WINDS TODAY IN AND NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND PORTIONS
OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS
EVENING, THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE FROM THE VERY LOW VALUES THIS
WEEKEND, BUT WILL REMAIN LOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT RED
FLAG WATCHES. ALSO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DISTRICTS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF
LIGHTNING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  91  64  91  56 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  92  68  92  63 /  10  10  10  10
PSC  95  64  95  56 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  89  62  91  55 /  10  10   0   0
HRI  94  64  94  55 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  91  65  87  58 /  10  10   0   0
RDM  86  50  88  46 /  20  20  10  10
LGD  87  55  88  49 /  20  20  20  10
GCD  90  56  91  50 /  20  20  20  10
DLS  91  67  88  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ639-
     641.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR WAZ639-
     641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/89/89



000
FXUS65 KBOI 031520
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN UTAH WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WNW-ESE MOVING
NE AT THIS TIME.  THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR.  NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 9 AM BUT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SHOWRS IN NERN NEVADA NWWD THROUGH THE OWYHEES INTO SRN
MALHEUR COUNTY/OR ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE VIRGA IN OREGON.  THE SHOWERS
WERE SHIFTING SLOWLY NE.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
AROUND NOON MDT.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 03/18Z
AND 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...THE
CONVECTION IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
ALONG THE WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. CLOUDS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
MINIMUMS TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL. EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG
THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS
WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND A MOIST/ACTIVE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY NEAR MAX HEATING
TIME. SO WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DRIED OUT POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF DIFFERENCES ARE FOR THE GFS TO BE WETTER OVER SE
ORE TO NV TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE EC TO BE WETTER NEAR THE NV BORDER
THAN THE GFS ON WED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GO STATIONARY AND DESICCATE
NEAR THE NV BORDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT COULD COMPLICATE THE DRY FCST
LATE THIS WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE
SHORT LIVED INTO WED-THUR...AS AN OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS IN WARMER SW
FLOW ALOFT AND MILD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND S-CENTRAL
ID SATURDAY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW COOLING OFF...AND AS IS
COMMON BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY. AGAIN FOR THE 00Z RUNS THE
GFS HAS MOISTURE LINGERING FARTHER WEST/OREGON/ AND SOUTH/NV BORDER/
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AN MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 031520
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN UTAH WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WNW-ESE MOVING
NE AT THIS TIME.  THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR.  NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 9 AM BUT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SHOWRS IN NERN NEVADA NWWD THROUGH THE OWYHEES INTO SRN
MALHEUR COUNTY/OR ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE VIRGA IN OREGON.  THE SHOWERS
WERE SHIFTING SLOWLY NE.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
AROUND NOON MDT.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 03/18Z
AND 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...THE
CONVECTION IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
ALONG THE WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. CLOUDS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
MINIMUMS TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL. EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG
THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS
WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND A MOIST/ACTIVE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY NEAR MAX HEATING
TIME. SO WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DRIED OUT POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF DIFFERENCES ARE FOR THE GFS TO BE WETTER OVER SE
ORE TO NV TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE EC TO BE WETTER NEAR THE NV BORDER
THAN THE GFS ON WED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GO STATIONARY AND DESICCATE
NEAR THE NV BORDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT COULD COMPLICATE THE DRY FCST
LATE THIS WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE
SHORT LIVED INTO WED-THUR...AS AN OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS IN WARMER SW
FLOW ALOFT AND MILD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND S-CENTRAL
ID SATURDAY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW COOLING OFF...AND AS IS
COMMON BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY. AGAIN FOR THE 00Z RUNS THE
GFS HAS MOISTURE LINGERING FARTHER WEST/OREGON/ AND SOUTH/NV BORDER/
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AN MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 031520
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN UTAH WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WNW-ESE MOVING
NE AT THIS TIME.  THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR.  NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 9 AM BUT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SHOWRS IN NERN NEVADA NWWD THROUGH THE OWYHEES INTO SRN
MALHEUR COUNTY/OR ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE VIRGA IN OREGON.  THE SHOWERS
WERE SHIFTING SLOWLY NE.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
AROUND NOON MDT.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 03/18Z
AND 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...THE
CONVECTION IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
ALONG THE WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. CLOUDS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
MINIMUMS TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL. EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG
THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS
WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND A MOIST/ACTIVE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY NEAR MAX HEATING
TIME. SO WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DRIED OUT POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF DIFFERENCES ARE FOR THE GFS TO BE WETTER OVER SE
ORE TO NV TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE EC TO BE WETTER NEAR THE NV BORDER
THAN THE GFS ON WED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GO STATIONARY AND DESICCATE
NEAR THE NV BORDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT COULD COMPLICATE THE DRY FCST
LATE THIS WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE
SHORT LIVED INTO WED-THUR...AS AN OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS IN WARMER SW
FLOW ALOFT AND MILD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND S-CENTRAL
ID SATURDAY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW COOLING OFF...AND AS IS
COMMON BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY. AGAIN FOR THE 00Z RUNS THE
GFS HAS MOISTURE LINGERING FARTHER WEST/OREGON/ AND SOUTH/NV BORDER/
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AN MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 031520
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN UTAH WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WNW-ESE MOVING
NE AT THIS TIME.  THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR.  NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 9 AM BUT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SHOWRS IN NERN NEVADA NWWD THROUGH THE OWYHEES INTO SRN
MALHEUR COUNTY/OR ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE VIRGA IN OREGON.  THE SHOWERS
WERE SHIFTING SLOWLY NE.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
AROUND NOON MDT.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 03/18Z
AND 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...THE
CONVECTION IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
ALONG THE WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. CLOUDS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
MINIMUMS TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL. EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG
THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS
WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND A MOIST/ACTIVE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY NEAR MAX HEATING
TIME. SO WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DRIED OUT POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF DIFFERENCES ARE FOR THE GFS TO BE WETTER OVER SE
ORE TO NV TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE EC TO BE WETTER NEAR THE NV BORDER
THAN THE GFS ON WED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GO STATIONARY AND DESICCATE
NEAR THE NV BORDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT COULD COMPLICATE THE DRY FCST
LATE THIS WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE
SHORT LIVED INTO WED-THUR...AS AN OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS IN WARMER SW
FLOW ALOFT AND MILD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND S-CENTRAL
ID SATURDAY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW COOLING OFF...AND AS IS
COMMON BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY. AGAIN FOR THE 00Z RUNS THE
GFS HAS MOISTURE LINGERING FARTHER WEST/OREGON/ AND SOUTH/NV BORDER/
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AN MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 031520
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN UTAH WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WNW-ESE MOVING
NE AT THIS TIME.  THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR.  NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 9 AM BUT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SHOWRS IN NERN NEVADA NWWD THROUGH THE OWYHEES INTO SRN
MALHEUR COUNTY/OR ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE VIRGA IN OREGON.  THE SHOWERS
WERE SHIFTING SLOWLY NE.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
AROUND NOON MDT.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 03/18Z
AND 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...THE
CONVECTION IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
ALONG THE WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. CLOUDS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
MINIMUMS TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL. EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG
THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS
WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND A MOIST/ACTIVE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY NEAR MAX HEATING
TIME. SO WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DRIED OUT POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF DIFFERENCES ARE FOR THE GFS TO BE WETTER OVER SE
ORE TO NV TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE EC TO BE WETTER NEAR THE NV BORDER
THAN THE GFS ON WED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GO STATIONARY AND DESICCATE
NEAR THE NV BORDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT COULD COMPLICATE THE DRY FCST
LATE THIS WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE
SHORT LIVED INTO WED-THUR...AS AN OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS IN WARMER SW
FLOW ALOFT AND MILD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND S-CENTRAL
ID SATURDAY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW COOLING OFF...AND AS IS
COMMON BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY. AGAIN FOR THE 00Z RUNS THE
GFS HAS MOISTURE LINGERING FARTHER WEST/OREGON/ AND SOUTH/NV BORDER/
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AN MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 031520
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN UTAH WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WNW-ESE MOVING
NE AT THIS TIME.  THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR.  NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 9 AM BUT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SHOWRS IN NERN NEVADA NWWD THROUGH THE OWYHEES INTO SRN
MALHEUR COUNTY/OR ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE VIRGA IN OREGON.  THE SHOWERS
WERE SHIFTING SLOWLY NE.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
AROUND NOON MDT.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 03/18Z
AND 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...THE
CONVECTION IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
ALONG THE WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. CLOUDS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
MINIMUMS TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL. EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG
THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS
WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND A MOIST/ACTIVE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY NEAR MAX HEATING
TIME. SO WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DRIED OUT POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF DIFFERENCES ARE FOR THE GFS TO BE WETTER OVER SE
ORE TO NV TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE EC TO BE WETTER NEAR THE NV BORDER
THAN THE GFS ON WED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GO STATIONARY AND DESICCATE
NEAR THE NV BORDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT COULD COMPLICATE THE DRY FCST
LATE THIS WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE
SHORT LIVED INTO WED-THUR...AS AN OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS IN WARMER SW
FLOW ALOFT AND MILD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND S-CENTRAL
ID SATURDAY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW COOLING OFF...AND AS IS
COMMON BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY. AGAIN FOR THE 00Z RUNS THE
GFS HAS MOISTURE LINGERING FARTHER WEST/OREGON/ AND SOUTH/NV BORDER/
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AN MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 031519
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN UTAH WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WNW-ESE MOVING
NE AT THIS TIME.  THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR.  NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 9 AM BUT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SHOERS IN NERN NEVADA NWWD THROUGH THE OWYHEES INTO SRN
MALHEUR COUNTY/OR ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE VIRGA IN OREGON.  THE SHOWERS
WERE SHIFTING SLOWLY NE.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
AROUND NOON MDT.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 03/18Z
AND 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...THE
CONVECTION IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
ALONG THE WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. CLOUDS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
MINIMUMS TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL. EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG
THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS
WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND A MOIST/ACTIVE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY NEAR MAX HEATING
TIME. SO WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DRIED OUT POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF DIFFERENCES ARE FOR THE GFS TO BE WETTER OVER SE
ORE TO NV TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE EC TO BE WETTER NEAR THE NV BORDER
THAN THE GFS ON WED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GO STATIONARY AND DESICCATE
NEAR THE NV BORDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT COULD COMPLICATE THE DRY FCST
LATE THIS WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE
SHORT LIVED INTO WED-THUR...AS AN OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS IN WARMER SW
FLOW ALOFT AND MILD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND S-CENTRAL
ID SATURDAY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW COOLING OFF...AND AS IS
COMMON BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY. AGAIN FOR THE 00Z RUNS THE
GFS HAS MOISTURE LINGERING FARTHER WEST/OREGON/ AND SOUTH/NV BORDER/
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AN MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 031519
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN UTAH WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WNW-ESE MOVING
NE AT THIS TIME.  THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR.  NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 9 AM BUT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SHOERS IN NERN NEVADA NWWD THROUGH THE OWYHEES INTO SRN
MALHEUR COUNTY/OR ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE VIRGA IN OREGON.  THE SHOWERS
WERE SHIFTING SLOWLY NE.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
AROUND NOON MDT.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 03/18Z
AND 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...THE
CONVECTION IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
ALONG THE WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. CLOUDS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
MINIMUMS TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL. EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG
THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS
WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND A MOIST/ACTIVE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY NEAR MAX HEATING
TIME. SO WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DRIED OUT POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF DIFFERENCES ARE FOR THE GFS TO BE WETTER OVER SE
ORE TO NV TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE EC TO BE WETTER NEAR THE NV BORDER
THAN THE GFS ON WED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GO STATIONARY AND DESICCATE
NEAR THE NV BORDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT COULD COMPLICATE THE DRY FCST
LATE THIS WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE
SHORT LIVED INTO WED-THUR...AS AN OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS IN WARMER SW
FLOW ALOFT AND MILD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND S-CENTRAL
ID SATURDAY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW COOLING OFF...AND AS IS
COMMON BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY. AGAIN FOR THE 00Z RUNS THE
GFS HAS MOISTURE LINGERING FARTHER WEST/OREGON/ AND SOUTH/NV BORDER/
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AN MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 031519
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN UTAH WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WNW-ESE MOVING
NE AT THIS TIME.  THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR.  NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 9 AM BUT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SHOERS IN NERN NEVADA NWWD THROUGH THE OWYHEES INTO SRN
MALHEUR COUNTY/OR ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE VIRGA IN OREGON.  THE SHOWERS
WERE SHIFTING SLOWLY NE.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
AROUND NOON MDT.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 03/18Z
AND 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...THE
CONVECTION IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
ALONG THE WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. CLOUDS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
MINIMUMS TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL. EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG
THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS
WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND A MOIST/ACTIVE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY NEAR MAX HEATING
TIME. SO WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DRIED OUT POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF DIFFERENCES ARE FOR THE GFS TO BE WETTER OVER SE
ORE TO NV TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE EC TO BE WETTER NEAR THE NV BORDER
THAN THE GFS ON WED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GO STATIONARY AND DESICCATE
NEAR THE NV BORDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT COULD COMPLICATE THE DRY FCST
LATE THIS WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE
SHORT LIVED INTO WED-THUR...AS AN OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS IN WARMER SW
FLOW ALOFT AND MILD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND S-CENTRAL
ID SATURDAY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW COOLING OFF...AND AS IS
COMMON BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY. AGAIN FOR THE 00Z RUNS THE
GFS HAS MOISTURE LINGERING FARTHER WEST/OREGON/ AND SOUTH/NV BORDER/
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AN MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 031519
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN UTAH WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WNW-ESE MOVING
NE AT THIS TIME.  THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR.  NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 9 AM BUT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SHOERS IN NERN NEVADA NWWD THROUGH THE OWYHEES INTO SRN
MALHEUR COUNTY/OR ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE VIRGA IN OREGON.  THE SHOWERS
WERE SHIFTING SLOWLY NE.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
AROUND NOON MDT.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 03/18Z
AND 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...THE
CONVECTION IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
ALONG THE WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. CLOUDS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
MINIMUMS TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL. EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG
THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS
WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND A MOIST/ACTIVE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY NEAR MAX HEATING
TIME. SO WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DRIED OUT POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF DIFFERENCES ARE FOR THE GFS TO BE WETTER OVER SE
ORE TO NV TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE EC TO BE WETTER NEAR THE NV BORDER
THAN THE GFS ON WED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GO STATIONARY AND DESICCATE
NEAR THE NV BORDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT COULD COMPLICATE THE DRY FCST
LATE THIS WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE
SHORT LIVED INTO WED-THUR...AS AN OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS IN WARMER SW
FLOW ALOFT AND MILD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND S-CENTRAL
ID SATURDAY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW COOLING OFF...AND AS IS
COMMON BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY. AGAIN FOR THE 00Z RUNS THE
GFS HAS MOISTURE LINGERING FARTHER WEST/OREGON/ AND SOUTH/NV BORDER/
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AN MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM




000
FXUS66 KMFR 031228
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
528 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS AT THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL RETREAT
OFFSHORE LATE THIS MORNING, THEN RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS OF
SMOKE WILL PRODUCE MVFR VIS OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON, INCLUDING KMFR
AND KLMT AT TIMES. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FIRES PRODUCE MORE SMOKE. WE WILL ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
APPROXIMATELY 1000 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
RECORDED BY BLM LIGHTNING IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN AN AVERAGE OF 12
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WERE UP,
LEADING TO SOME RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
MOST AREAS STILL RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10", AREAS THAT GOT MORE
LIGHTNING SUCH AS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS TO AROUND LAKEVIEW, CURRY
AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES, AND MODOC AND KLAMATH COUNTIES DID
GENERALLY GET 0.10" OR MORE. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS OF
30-45 MPH AS WELL AS RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.30-0.80" RANGE. IN
OTHER AREAS, SUCH AS JACKSON COUNTY AND AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST, CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE RESULTED IN COOLING WHICH
PREVENTED MORE THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES.

THIS MORNING OUR CONVERGENT 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT HAS BEEN
IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH IT`S ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS IS STILL DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THIS FEATURE IS OF UTMOST CONCERN TODAY BECAUSE A
RETURN OF PRONOUNCED SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE AND
NOW AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODEL 850MB COMPUTED
LIFTED INDICES ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -5C ON THE GFS20 AND -4C
TO -8C ON THE NAM12 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ABOUT THE
OREGON CAVES AREA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE,
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS, ACROSS THE SISKIYOUS, AND
IN THE CASCADES. IN FACT, FOR THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE GREATEST CAPE VALUES DEPICTED IN THE LAST
4 DAYS OVER THE AREA, WHICH MEANS THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY,
EVEN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN MANY AREAS APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY MOISTURE IN THE 600-500MB LAYER. IN SHORT, WE
EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ASTOUNDING TODAY,
BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING WHERE THEY DO OCCUR.

ADDITIONALLY, FOR ACTIVE WILDFIRE AREAS, KNOWN AND UNKNOWN, WHERE
UPSTREAM SMOKE DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SUNSHINE, WE EXPECT
THAT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE COLUMNS TO DEVELOP THUNDERSHOWERS OVER
AREAS OF FOCUSED HEAT.

RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE CASCADES,
SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE OREGON EAST
SIDE. LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT NEW FIRE STARTS THAT COULD SPREAD
FROM OUTFLOW WINDS ARE OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT WE SHOULD FINALLY CATCH A BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO PERCOLATE NORTH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
EXPECT STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE SLOW MOVERS AND
ISOLATED EXCEPT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH HUMIDITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF NEW STARTS, BUT WE`LL NEED TO GET A CHECK ON FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS TO DETERMINE IF ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED THERE. OF NOTE, IT APPEARS THERE WERE AT LEAST 12 NEW FIRES
REPORTED IN THAT AREA IN THE LAST 2 DAYS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LIKELY COOLER THAN THE CURRENT ONE,
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SUNDAY 2 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER LATER IN
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. -WRIGHT

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 AM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH OF US. WE CAN`T REALLY RULE OUT A FEW RANDOM
STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL ALL
THAT`S LEFT ARE SHOWERS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
DECREASE. AS A RESULT, ALL REMAINING RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN DROPPED.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A LOT OF CLOUD OVER THE AREA, BUT SATELLITE
SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING SOUTH OF US WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS AND ANOTHER OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE OVER US THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING SOME SUN BACK TO THE AREA AND START THE
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
HEATING, MODEST COOLING ALOFT, AND MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS, WILL RESULT IN SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. AS MENTIONED, THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AXIS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH HERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE ALREADY HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
SIDE, WHICH LOOKS FINE, BUT RED FLAGS WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A STORM TO GET
OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 622 (ROGUE VALLEY), BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY WEST SIDE VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AT THIS TIME. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625-617-621-623.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 031228
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
528 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS AT THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL RETREAT
OFFSHORE LATE THIS MORNING, THEN RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS OF
SMOKE WILL PRODUCE MVFR VIS OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON, INCLUDING KMFR
AND KLMT AT TIMES. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FIRES PRODUCE MORE SMOKE. WE WILL ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
APPROXIMATELY 1000 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
RECORDED BY BLM LIGHTNING IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN AN AVERAGE OF 12
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WERE UP,
LEADING TO SOME RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
MOST AREAS STILL RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10", AREAS THAT GOT MORE
LIGHTNING SUCH AS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS TO AROUND LAKEVIEW, CURRY
AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES, AND MODOC AND KLAMATH COUNTIES DID
GENERALLY GET 0.10" OR MORE. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS OF
30-45 MPH AS WELL AS RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.30-0.80" RANGE. IN
OTHER AREAS, SUCH AS JACKSON COUNTY AND AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST, CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE RESULTED IN COOLING WHICH
PREVENTED MORE THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES.

THIS MORNING OUR CONVERGENT 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT HAS BEEN
IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH IT`S ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS IS STILL DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THIS FEATURE IS OF UTMOST CONCERN TODAY BECAUSE A
RETURN OF PRONOUNCED SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE AND
NOW AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODEL 850MB COMPUTED
LIFTED INDICES ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -5C ON THE GFS20 AND -4C
TO -8C ON THE NAM12 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ABOUT THE
OREGON CAVES AREA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE,
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS, ACROSS THE SISKIYOUS, AND
IN THE CASCADES. IN FACT, FOR THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE GREATEST CAPE VALUES DEPICTED IN THE LAST
4 DAYS OVER THE AREA, WHICH MEANS THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY,
EVEN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN MANY AREAS APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY MOISTURE IN THE 600-500MB LAYER. IN SHORT, WE
EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ASTOUNDING TODAY,
BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING WHERE THEY DO OCCUR.

ADDITIONALLY, FOR ACTIVE WILDFIRE AREAS, KNOWN AND UNKNOWN, WHERE
UPSTREAM SMOKE DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SUNSHINE, WE EXPECT
THAT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE COLUMNS TO DEVELOP THUNDERSHOWERS OVER
AREAS OF FOCUSED HEAT.

RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE CASCADES,
SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE OREGON EAST
SIDE. LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT NEW FIRE STARTS THAT COULD SPREAD
FROM OUTFLOW WINDS ARE OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT WE SHOULD FINALLY CATCH A BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO PERCOLATE NORTH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
EXPECT STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE SLOW MOVERS AND
ISOLATED EXCEPT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH HUMIDITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF NEW STARTS, BUT WE`LL NEED TO GET A CHECK ON FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS TO DETERMINE IF ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED THERE. OF NOTE, IT APPEARS THERE WERE AT LEAST 12 NEW FIRES
REPORTED IN THAT AREA IN THE LAST 2 DAYS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LIKELY COOLER THAN THE CURRENT ONE,
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SUNDAY 2 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER LATER IN
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. -WRIGHT

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 AM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH OF US. WE CAN`T REALLY RULE OUT A FEW RANDOM
STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL ALL
THAT`S LEFT ARE SHOWERS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
DECREASE. AS A RESULT, ALL REMAINING RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN DROPPED.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A LOT OF CLOUD OVER THE AREA, BUT SATELLITE
SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING SOUTH OF US WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS AND ANOTHER OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE OVER US THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING SOME SUN BACK TO THE AREA AND START THE
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
HEATING, MODEST COOLING ALOFT, AND MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS, WILL RESULT IN SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. AS MENTIONED, THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AXIS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH HERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE ALREADY HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
SIDE, WHICH LOOKS FINE, BUT RED FLAGS WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A STORM TO GET
OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 622 (ROGUE VALLEY), BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY WEST SIDE VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AT THIS TIME. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625-617-621-623.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 031228
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
528 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS AT THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL RETREAT
OFFSHORE LATE THIS MORNING, THEN RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS OF
SMOKE WILL PRODUCE MVFR VIS OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON, INCLUDING KMFR
AND KLMT AT TIMES. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FIRES PRODUCE MORE SMOKE. WE WILL ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
APPROXIMATELY 1000 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
RECORDED BY BLM LIGHTNING IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN AN AVERAGE OF 12
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WERE UP,
LEADING TO SOME RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
MOST AREAS STILL RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10", AREAS THAT GOT MORE
LIGHTNING SUCH AS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS TO AROUND LAKEVIEW, CURRY
AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES, AND MODOC AND KLAMATH COUNTIES DID
GENERALLY GET 0.10" OR MORE. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS OF
30-45 MPH AS WELL AS RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.30-0.80" RANGE. IN
OTHER AREAS, SUCH AS JACKSON COUNTY AND AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST, CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE RESULTED IN COOLING WHICH
PREVENTED MORE THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES.

THIS MORNING OUR CONVERGENT 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT HAS BEEN
IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH IT`S ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS IS STILL DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THIS FEATURE IS OF UTMOST CONCERN TODAY BECAUSE A
RETURN OF PRONOUNCED SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE AND
NOW AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODEL 850MB COMPUTED
LIFTED INDICES ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -5C ON THE GFS20 AND -4C
TO -8C ON THE NAM12 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ABOUT THE
OREGON CAVES AREA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE,
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS, ACROSS THE SISKIYOUS, AND
IN THE CASCADES. IN FACT, FOR THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE GREATEST CAPE VALUES DEPICTED IN THE LAST
4 DAYS OVER THE AREA, WHICH MEANS THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY,
EVEN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN MANY AREAS APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY MOISTURE IN THE 600-500MB LAYER. IN SHORT, WE
EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ASTOUNDING TODAY,
BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING WHERE THEY DO OCCUR.

ADDITIONALLY, FOR ACTIVE WILDFIRE AREAS, KNOWN AND UNKNOWN, WHERE
UPSTREAM SMOKE DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SUNSHINE, WE EXPECT
THAT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE COLUMNS TO DEVELOP THUNDERSHOWERS OVER
AREAS OF FOCUSED HEAT.

RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE CASCADES,
SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE OREGON EAST
SIDE. LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT NEW FIRE STARTS THAT COULD SPREAD
FROM OUTFLOW WINDS ARE OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT WE SHOULD FINALLY CATCH A BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO PERCOLATE NORTH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
EXPECT STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE SLOW MOVERS AND
ISOLATED EXCEPT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH HUMIDITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF NEW STARTS, BUT WE`LL NEED TO GET A CHECK ON FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS TO DETERMINE IF ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED THERE. OF NOTE, IT APPEARS THERE WERE AT LEAST 12 NEW FIRES
REPORTED IN THAT AREA IN THE LAST 2 DAYS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LIKELY COOLER THAN THE CURRENT ONE,
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SUNDAY 2 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER LATER IN
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. -WRIGHT

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 AM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH OF US. WE CAN`T REALLY RULE OUT A FEW RANDOM
STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL ALL
THAT`S LEFT ARE SHOWERS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
DECREASE. AS A RESULT, ALL REMAINING RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN DROPPED.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A LOT OF CLOUD OVER THE AREA, BUT SATELLITE
SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING SOUTH OF US WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS AND ANOTHER OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE OVER US THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING SOME SUN BACK TO THE AREA AND START THE
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
HEATING, MODEST COOLING ALOFT, AND MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS, WILL RESULT IN SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. AS MENTIONED, THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AXIS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH HERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE ALREADY HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
SIDE, WHICH LOOKS FINE, BUT RED FLAGS WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A STORM TO GET
OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 622 (ROGUE VALLEY), BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY WEST SIDE VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AT THIS TIME. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625-617-621-623.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 031024
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
324 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
APPROXIMATELY 1000 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
RECORDED BY BLM LIGHTNING IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN AN AVERAGE OF 12
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WERE UP,
LEADING TO SOME RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
MOST AREAS STILL RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10", AREAS THAT GOT MORE
LIGHTNING SUCH AS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS TO AROUND LAKEVIEW, CURRY
AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES, AND MODOC AND KLAMATH COUNTIES DID
GENERALLY GET 0.10" OR MORE. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS OF
30-45 MPH AS WELL AS RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.30-0.80" RANGE. IN
OTHER AREAS, SUCH AS JACKSON COUNTY AND AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST, CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE RESULTED IN COOLING WHICH
PREVENTED MORE THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES.

THIS MORNING OUR CONVERGENT 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT HAS BEEN
IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH IT`S ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS IS STILL DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THIS FEATURE IS OF UTMOST CONCERN TODAY BECAUSE A
RETURN OF PRONOUNCED SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE AND
NOW AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODEL 850MB COMPUTED
LIFTED INDICES ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -5C ON THE GFS20 AND -4C
TO -8C ON THE NAM12 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ABOUT THE
OREGON CAVES AREA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE,
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS, ACROSS THE SISKIYOUS, AND
IN THE CASCADES. IN FACT, FOR THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE GREATEST CAPE VALUES DEPICTED IN THE LAST
4 DAYS OVER THE AREA, WHICH MEANS THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY,
EVEN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN MANY AREAS APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY MOISTURE IN THE 600-500MB LAYER. IN SHORT, WE
EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ASTOUNDING TODAY,
BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING WHERE THEY DO OCCUR.

ADDITIONALLY, FOR ACTIVE WILDFIRE AREAS, KNOWN AND UNKNOWN, WHERE
UPSTREAM SMOKE DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SUNSHINE, WE EXPECT
THAT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE COLUMNS TO DEVELOP THUNDERSHOWERS OVER
AREAS OF FOCUSED HEAT.

RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE CASCADES,
SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE OREGON EAST
SIDE. LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT NEW FIRE STARTS THAT COULD SPREAD
FROM OUTFLOW WINDS ARE OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT WE SHOULD FINALLY CATCH A BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO PERCOLATE NORTH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
EXPECT STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE SLOW MOVERS AND
ISOLATED EXCEPT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH HUMIDITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF NEW STARTS, BUT WE`LL NEED TO GET A CHECK ON FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS TO DETERMINE IF ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED THERE. OF NOTE, IT APPEARS THERE WERE AT LEAST 12 NEW FIRES
REPORTED IN THAT AREA IN THE LAST 2 DAYS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LIKELY COOLER THAN THE CURRENT ONE,
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY...THEN
CLEAR OFFSHORE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME AREAS
MONDAY EVENING. OVER THE WEST SIDE...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
VSBYS IN SMOKE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY MORNING.
FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
SMOKE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE KLAMATH BASIN.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SUNDAY 2 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER LATER IN
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 AM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH OF US. WE CAN`T REALLY RULE OUT A FEW RANDOM
STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL ALL
THAT`S LEFT ARE SHOWERS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
DECREASE. AS A RESULT, ALL REMAINING RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN DROPPED.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A LOT OF CLOUD OVER THE AREA, BUT SATELLITE
SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING SOUTH OF US WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS AND ANOTHER OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE OVER US THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING SOME SUN BACK TO THE AREA AND START THE
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
HEATING, MODEST COOLING ALOFT, AND MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS, WILL RESULT IN SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. AS MENTIONED, THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AXIS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH HERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE ALREADY HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
SIDE, WHICH LOOKS FINE, BUT RED FLAGS WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A STORM TO GET
OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 622 (ROGUE VALLEY), BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY WEST SIDE VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AT THIS TIME. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621-623.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 031024
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
324 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
APPROXIMATELY 1000 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
RECORDED BY BLM LIGHTNING IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN AN AVERAGE OF 12
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WERE UP,
LEADING TO SOME RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
MOST AREAS STILL RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10", AREAS THAT GOT MORE
LIGHTNING SUCH AS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS TO AROUND LAKEVIEW, CURRY
AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES, AND MODOC AND KLAMATH COUNTIES DID
GENERALLY GET 0.10" OR MORE. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS OF
30-45 MPH AS WELL AS RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.30-0.80" RANGE. IN
OTHER AREAS, SUCH AS JACKSON COUNTY AND AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST, CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE RESULTED IN COOLING WHICH
PREVENTED MORE THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES.

THIS MORNING OUR CONVERGENT 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT HAS BEEN
IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH IT`S ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS IS STILL DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THIS FEATURE IS OF UTMOST CONCERN TODAY BECAUSE A
RETURN OF PRONOUNCED SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE AND
NOW AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODEL 850MB COMPUTED
LIFTED INDICES ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -5C ON THE GFS20 AND -4C
TO -8C ON THE NAM12 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ABOUT THE
OREGON CAVES AREA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE,
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS, ACROSS THE SISKIYOUS, AND
IN THE CASCADES. IN FACT, FOR THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE GREATEST CAPE VALUES DEPICTED IN THE LAST
4 DAYS OVER THE AREA, WHICH MEANS THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY,
EVEN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN MANY AREAS APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY MOISTURE IN THE 600-500MB LAYER. IN SHORT, WE
EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ASTOUNDING TODAY,
BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING WHERE THEY DO OCCUR.

ADDITIONALLY, FOR ACTIVE WILDFIRE AREAS, KNOWN AND UNKNOWN, WHERE
UPSTREAM SMOKE DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SUNSHINE, WE EXPECT
THAT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE COLUMNS TO DEVELOP THUNDERSHOWERS OVER
AREAS OF FOCUSED HEAT.

RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE CASCADES,
SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE OREGON EAST
SIDE. LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT NEW FIRE STARTS THAT COULD SPREAD
FROM OUTFLOW WINDS ARE OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT WE SHOULD FINALLY CATCH A BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO PERCOLATE NORTH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
EXPECT STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE SLOW MOVERS AND
ISOLATED EXCEPT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH HUMIDITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF NEW STARTS, BUT WE`LL NEED TO GET A CHECK ON FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS TO DETERMINE IF ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED THERE. OF NOTE, IT APPEARS THERE WERE AT LEAST 12 NEW FIRES
REPORTED IN THAT AREA IN THE LAST 2 DAYS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LIKELY COOLER THAN THE CURRENT ONE,
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY...THEN
CLEAR OFFSHORE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME AREAS
MONDAY EVENING. OVER THE WEST SIDE...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
VSBYS IN SMOKE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY MORNING.
FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
SMOKE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE KLAMATH BASIN.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SUNDAY 2 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER LATER IN
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 AM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH OF US. WE CAN`T REALLY RULE OUT A FEW RANDOM
STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL ALL
THAT`S LEFT ARE SHOWERS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
DECREASE. AS A RESULT, ALL REMAINING RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN DROPPED.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A LOT OF CLOUD OVER THE AREA, BUT SATELLITE
SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING SOUTH OF US WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS AND ANOTHER OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE OVER US THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING SOME SUN BACK TO THE AREA AND START THE
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
HEATING, MODEST COOLING ALOFT, AND MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS, WILL RESULT IN SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. AS MENTIONED, THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AXIS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH HERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE ALREADY HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
SIDE, WHICH LOOKS FINE, BUT RED FLAGS WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A STORM TO GET
OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 622 (ROGUE VALLEY), BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY WEST SIDE VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AT THIS TIME. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621-623.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/TRW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 031024
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
324 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
APPROXIMATELY 1000 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
RECORDED BY BLM LIGHTNING IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN AN AVERAGE OF 12
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WERE UP,
LEADING TO SOME RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
MOST AREAS STILL RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10", AREAS THAT GOT MORE
LIGHTNING SUCH AS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS TO AROUND LAKEVIEW, CURRY
AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES, AND MODOC AND KLAMATH COUNTIES DID
GENERALLY GET 0.10" OR MORE. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS OF
30-45 MPH AS WELL AS RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.30-0.80" RANGE. IN
OTHER AREAS, SUCH AS JACKSON COUNTY AND AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST, CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE RESULTED IN COOLING WHICH
PREVENTED MORE THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES.

THIS MORNING OUR CONVERGENT 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT HAS BEEN
IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH IT`S ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS IS STILL DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THIS FEATURE IS OF UTMOST CONCERN TODAY BECAUSE A
RETURN OF PRONOUNCED SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE AND
NOW AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODEL 850MB COMPUTED
LIFTED INDICES ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -5C ON THE GFS20 AND -4C
TO -8C ON THE NAM12 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ABOUT THE
OREGON CAVES AREA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE,
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS, ACROSS THE SISKIYOUS, AND
IN THE CASCADES. IN FACT, FOR THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE GREATEST CAPE VALUES DEPICTED IN THE LAST
4 DAYS OVER THE AREA, WHICH MEANS THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY,
EVEN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN MANY AREAS APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY MOISTURE IN THE 600-500MB LAYER. IN SHORT, WE
EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ASTOUNDING TODAY,
BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING WHERE THEY DO OCCUR.

ADDITIONALLY, FOR ACTIVE WILDFIRE AREAS, KNOWN AND UNKNOWN, WHERE
UPSTREAM SMOKE DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SUNSHINE, WE EXPECT
THAT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE COLUMNS TO DEVELOP THUNDERSHOWERS OVER
AREAS OF FOCUSED HEAT.

RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE CASCADES,
SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE OREGON EAST
SIDE. LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT NEW FIRE STARTS THAT COULD SPREAD
FROM OUTFLOW WINDS ARE OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT WE SHOULD FINALLY CATCH A BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO PERCOLATE NORTH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
EXPECT STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE SLOW MOVERS AND
ISOLATED EXCEPT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH HUMIDITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF NEW STARTS, BUT WE`LL NEED TO GET A CHECK ON FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS TO DETERMINE IF ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED THERE. OF NOTE, IT APPEARS THERE WERE AT LEAST 12 NEW FIRES
REPORTED IN THAT AREA IN THE LAST 2 DAYS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LIKELY COOLER THAN THE CURRENT ONE,
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY...THEN
CLEAR OFFSHORE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME AREAS
MONDAY EVENING. OVER THE WEST SIDE...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
VSBYS IN SMOKE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY MORNING.
FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
SMOKE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE KLAMATH BASIN.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SUNDAY 2 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER LATER IN
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 AM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH OF US. WE CAN`T REALLY RULE OUT A FEW RANDOM
STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL ALL
THAT`S LEFT ARE SHOWERS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
DECREASE. AS A RESULT, ALL REMAINING RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN DROPPED.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A LOT OF CLOUD OVER THE AREA, BUT SATELLITE
SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING SOUTH OF US WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS AND ANOTHER OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE OVER US THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING SOME SUN BACK TO THE AREA AND START THE
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
HEATING, MODEST COOLING ALOFT, AND MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS, WILL RESULT IN SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. AS MENTIONED, THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AXIS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH HERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE ALREADY HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
SIDE, WHICH LOOKS FINE, BUT RED FLAGS WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A STORM TO GET
OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 622 (ROGUE VALLEY), BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY WEST SIDE VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AT THIS TIME. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621-623.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 031024
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
324 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
APPROXIMATELY 1000 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
RECORDED BY BLM LIGHTNING IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN AN AVERAGE OF 12
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WERE UP,
LEADING TO SOME RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
MOST AREAS STILL RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10", AREAS THAT GOT MORE
LIGHTNING SUCH AS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS TO AROUND LAKEVIEW, CURRY
AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES, AND MODOC AND KLAMATH COUNTIES DID
GENERALLY GET 0.10" OR MORE. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS OF
30-45 MPH AS WELL AS RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.30-0.80" RANGE. IN
OTHER AREAS, SUCH AS JACKSON COUNTY AND AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST, CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE RESULTED IN COOLING WHICH
PREVENTED MORE THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES.

THIS MORNING OUR CONVERGENT 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT HAS BEEN
IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH IT`S ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS IS STILL DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THIS FEATURE IS OF UTMOST CONCERN TODAY BECAUSE A
RETURN OF PRONOUNCED SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE AND
NOW AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODEL 850MB COMPUTED
LIFTED INDICES ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -5C ON THE GFS20 AND -4C
TO -8C ON THE NAM12 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ABOUT THE
OREGON CAVES AREA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE,
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS, ACROSS THE SISKIYOUS, AND
IN THE CASCADES. IN FACT, FOR THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE GREATEST CAPE VALUES DEPICTED IN THE LAST
4 DAYS OVER THE AREA, WHICH MEANS THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY,
EVEN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN MANY AREAS APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY MOISTURE IN THE 600-500MB LAYER. IN SHORT, WE
EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ASTOUNDING TODAY,
BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING WHERE THEY DO OCCUR.

ADDITIONALLY, FOR ACTIVE WILDFIRE AREAS, KNOWN AND UNKNOWN, WHERE
UPSTREAM SMOKE DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SUNSHINE, WE EXPECT
THAT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE COLUMNS TO DEVELOP THUNDERSHOWERS OVER
AREAS OF FOCUSED HEAT.

RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE CASCADES,
SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE OREGON EAST
SIDE. LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT NEW FIRE STARTS THAT COULD SPREAD
FROM OUTFLOW WINDS ARE OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT WE SHOULD FINALLY CATCH A BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO PERCOLATE NORTH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
EXPECT STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE SLOW MOVERS AND
ISOLATED EXCEPT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH HUMIDITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF NEW STARTS, BUT WE`LL NEED TO GET A CHECK ON FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS TO DETERMINE IF ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED THERE. OF NOTE, IT APPEARS THERE WERE AT LEAST 12 NEW FIRES
REPORTED IN THAT AREA IN THE LAST 2 DAYS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LIKELY COOLER THAN THE CURRENT ONE,
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY...THEN
CLEAR OFFSHORE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME AREAS
MONDAY EVENING. OVER THE WEST SIDE...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
VSBYS IN SMOKE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY MORNING.
FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
SMOKE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE KLAMATH BASIN.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SUNDAY 2 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER LATER IN
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 AM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH OF US. WE CAN`T REALLY RULE OUT A FEW RANDOM
STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL ALL
THAT`S LEFT ARE SHOWERS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
DECREASE. AS A RESULT, ALL REMAINING RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN DROPPED.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A LOT OF CLOUD OVER THE AREA, BUT SATELLITE
SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING SOUTH OF US WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS AND ANOTHER OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE OVER US THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING SOME SUN BACK TO THE AREA AND START THE
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
HEATING, MODEST COOLING ALOFT, AND MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS, WILL RESULT IN SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. AS MENTIONED, THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AXIS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH HERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE ALREADY HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
SIDE, WHICH LOOKS FINE, BUT RED FLAGS WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A STORM TO GET
OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 622 (ROGUE VALLEY), BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY WEST SIDE VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AT THIS TIME. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621-623.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/TRW



000
FXUS66 KPDT 031007
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THUS WILL SEE THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. THUS WILL GRADUALLY SEE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
PACNW BE PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION. THERE WILL REMAIN THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OREGON, WITH LESSER CHANCES INTO THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WALLOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE
TODAY EXPECT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SPRINKLES. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE INCREASINGLY WESTERLY TODAY. THUS EXPECT COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AT MOST, IF NOT ALL, LOCATIONS. AS THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WILL SEE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE SUCH THAT ONLY OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE AFFECTED. 90

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
PATTERN IN THE WESTERLIES WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ON WEDNESDAY SETS UP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH STABLE
AIRMASS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY THROUGH SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST
OREGON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG HIGH RIDGE
IN FAR EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ENDS BEFORE SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND INTO IDAHO/MONTANA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE DRY SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW, WE WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING A MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON A MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND ALLOWS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OREGON FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN OREGON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ALLOWS AN INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR AT KBDN AND KRDM
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST MAINLY IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SURROUNDING
VALLEYS AND THE RIDGE TOPS AS COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION TODAY.  POLAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STILL ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED AND
GUSTY WINDS TODAY IN AND NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND PORTIONS
OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS
EVENING, THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE FROM THE VERY LOW VALUES THIS
WEEKEND, BUT WILL REMAIN LOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT RED
FLAG WATCHES. ALSO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DISTRICTS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF
LIGHTNING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  92  60  91  56 /  20  10  10  10
ALW  93  66  92  63 /  10  10  10  10
PSC  97  62  95  56 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  93  60  91  55 /  10  10   0   0
HRI  95  62  94  55 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  92  62  87  58 /  10  10   0   0
RDM  88  49  88  46 /  30  20  10  10
LGD  89  53  88  49 /  20  20  20  10
GCD  91  54  91  50 /  30  30  20  10
DLS  91  63  88  58 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ639-641.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/99/90



000
FXUS66 KPDT 031007
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THUS WILL SEE THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. THUS WILL GRADUALLY SEE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
PACNW BE PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION. THERE WILL REMAIN THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OREGON, WITH LESSER CHANCES INTO THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WALLOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE
TODAY EXPECT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SPRINKLES. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE INCREASINGLY WESTERLY TODAY. THUS EXPECT COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AT MOST, IF NOT ALL, LOCATIONS. AS THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WILL SEE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE SUCH THAT ONLY OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE AFFECTED. 90

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
PATTERN IN THE WESTERLIES WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ON WEDNESDAY SETS UP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH STABLE
AIRMASS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY THROUGH SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST
OREGON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG HIGH RIDGE
IN FAR EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ENDS BEFORE SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND INTO IDAHO/MONTANA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE DRY SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW, WE WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING A MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON A MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND ALLOWS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OREGON FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN OREGON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ALLOWS AN INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR AT KBDN AND KRDM
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST MAINLY IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SURROUNDING
VALLEYS AND THE RIDGE TOPS AS COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION TODAY.  POLAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STILL ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED AND
GUSTY WINDS TODAY IN AND NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND PORTIONS
OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS
EVENING, THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE FROM THE VERY LOW VALUES THIS
WEEKEND, BUT WILL REMAIN LOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT RED
FLAG WATCHES. ALSO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DISTRICTS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF
LIGHTNING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  92  60  91  56 /  20  10  10  10
ALW  93  66  92  63 /  10  10  10  10
PSC  97  62  95  56 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  93  60  91  55 /  10  10   0   0
HRI  95  62  94  55 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  92  62  87  58 /  10  10   0   0
RDM  88  49  88  46 /  30  20  10  10
LGD  89  53  88  49 /  20  20  20  10
GCD  91  54  91  50 /  30  30  20  10
DLS  91  63  88  58 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ639-641.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/99/90




000
FXUS66 KPDT 031007
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THUS WILL SEE THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. THUS WILL GRADUALLY SEE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE
PACNW BE PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION. THERE WILL REMAIN THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OREGON, WITH LESSER CHANCES INTO THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WALLOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE
TODAY EXPECT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SPRINKLES. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE INCREASINGLY WESTERLY TODAY. THUS EXPECT COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AT MOST, IF NOT ALL, LOCATIONS. AS THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WILL SEE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE SUCH THAT ONLY OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE AFFECTED. 90

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
PATTERN IN THE WESTERLIES WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA ON WEDNESDAY SETS UP A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH STABLE
AIRMASS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY THROUGH SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST
OREGON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG HIGH RIDGE
IN FAR EASTERN WALLOWA COUNTY. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ENDS BEFORE SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND INTO IDAHO/MONTANA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE DRY SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW, WE WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING A MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
FORECAST AREA FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON A MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND ALLOWS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OREGON FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN OREGON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ALLOWS AN INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OREGON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR AT KBDN AND KRDM
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST MAINLY IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SURROUNDING
VALLEYS AND THE RIDGE TOPS AS COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION TODAY.  POLAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STILL ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED AND
GUSTY WINDS TODAY IN AND NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND PORTIONS
OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS
EVENING, THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE FROM THE VERY LOW VALUES THIS
WEEKEND, BUT WILL REMAIN LOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT RED
FLAG WATCHES. ALSO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DISTRICTS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF
LIGHTNING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  92  60  91  56 /  20  10  10  10
ALW  93  66  92  63 /  10  10  10  10
PSC  97  62  95  56 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  93  60  91  55 /  10  10   0   0
HRI  95  62  94  55 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  92  62  87  58 /  10  10   0   0
RDM  88  49  88  46 /  30  20  10  10
LGD  89  53  88  49 /  20  20  20  10
GCD  91  54  91  50 /  30  30  20  10
DLS  91  63  88  58 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ639-641.

WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR WAZ639-641-675.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/99/90




000
FXUS65 KBOI 030948
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
348 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...THE
CONVECTION IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE ALONG THE WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT
NORMAL TODAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE
IN. CLOUDS WILL PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING MINIMUMS TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL.
EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS
WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND A MOIST/ACTIVE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY NEAR MAX HEATING
TIME. SO WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DRIED OUT POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF DIFFERENCES ARE FOR THE GFS TO BE WETTER OVER SE
ORE TO NV TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE EC TO BE WETTER NEAR THE NV BORDER
THAN THE GFS ON WED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GO STATIONARY AND
DESICCATE NEAR THE NV BORDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT COULD COMPLICATE
THE DRY FCST LATE THIS WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
TROUGH WILL BE SHORT LIVED INTO WED-THUR...AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
BRINGS IN WARMER SW FLOW ALOFT AND MILD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWFA
FRIDAY AND S-CENTRAL ID SATURDAY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW
COOLING OFF...AND AS IS COMMON BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY.
AGAIN FOR THE 00Z RUNS THE GFS HAS MOISTURE LINGERING FARTHER
WEST/OREGON/ AND SOUTH/NV BORDER/ ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AN
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR WIG IN RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING FROM NEAR THE NV BORDER THIS MORNING TO ACROSS
CENTRAL PARTS OF OREGON/IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SE TO SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 5-15 KTS AFTER 16Z...EXCEPT 10-20KTS SOUTH OF A
KBNO- KBOI-KJER LINE UNTIL 06Z TUESDAY. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
SHIFTING FROM SE 15KTS TO SW 20KTS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....VM




000
FXUS66 KPQR 030927
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE BC COAST
WILL MOVE S DOWN THE COAST...PUSHING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT
THROUGH WED FOR A PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN WATER VPOAR IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS N CA...SLOWLY LIFTING NE. PLENTY OF HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDED THE SHORTWAVES ACROSS WESTERN OREGON...AND
RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN OR
AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AT TIMES THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHTNING SEEN
ACROSS SW OREGON AND OFFSHORE...SUGGESTING SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
INSTABILITY REMAINED. 00Z SOUNDINGS AT SLE AND MFR...AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAINED PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD OF THE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS MORNING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE MODELS MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. ONCE
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO MOVE OUT FOR MORE SUNSHINE THAN OCCURRED SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP CLOSER TO WHAT H8
TEMPS WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST FOR HIGHS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
BETTER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CASCADES...SO WILL NEED TO LEAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THERE THROUGH THE EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW SINKING S ALONG THE BC COAST WILL THEN BRING COOLING
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WED. A NW ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASED
PRESENCE OF MARINE AIR TO THE REGION. MARINE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST PUSHING LOCALLY INLAND DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF CLOUDS COMING UP THE
LOWER COLUMBIA AND INTO THE N PART OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE NW
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH MODEL FORECAST H8 TEMPS DOWN IN THE 12 TO 14 DEG
C RANGE SUGGEST HIGHS TUE AND WED NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF MORNING DRIZZLE ALONG THE N PART OF THE COAST TUE AND WED
 AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM DUE TO DEEPER MARINE AIR AND MAYBE A LITTLE
LIFT BY WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW OVER BC.

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH DECREASING ONSHORE FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO ITS
TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. AS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64 &&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY TODAY WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS REMAINING OVERHEAD. SOME LIGHT CONVECTION ONGOING MOVING
FROM S TO N...WITH SHOWERS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...BUT ALSO A FEW WEAK SHOWERS MAKING
THEIR WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY NEAR KEUG. STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW IN PINPOINTING THE LOCATION/TIMING
OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP...IF ANY MORE DO AT ALL. LOW STRATUS
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AT KONP THROUGH DAYBREAK AND MAY ALSO PUSH ONSHORE FOR THE
NORTH OREGON COAST TOO. OTHERWISE VFR CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING THU BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SCATTERING BY AFTERNOON.
REMAINS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 16Z...BUT VERY
LOW CHANCE OF THIS MATERIALIZING. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...REMAIN
JUST BEYOND THE OUTER WATERS OF CENTRAL OREGON. LIGHTNING APPEARS
TO BE TAPERING OFF WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT REMAINING HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVING FROM S TO N MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT FOR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. FEW LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE
ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUSPECT AN ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE
NECESSARY.

MEANWHILE...OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING A FEW FEET TODAY...BUT
GIVEN THAT SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD AND WIND DRIVEN WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR MON...BUT AN
ADVISOR FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 030927
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE BC COAST
WILL MOVE S DOWN THE COAST...PUSHING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT
THROUGH WED FOR A PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN WATER VPOAR IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS N CA...SLOWLY LIFTING NE. PLENTY OF HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDED THE SHORTWAVES ACROSS WESTERN OREGON...AND
RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN OR
AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AT TIMES THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHTNING SEEN
ACROSS SW OREGON AND OFFSHORE...SUGGESTING SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
INSTABILITY REMAINED. 00Z SOUNDINGS AT SLE AND MFR...AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAINED PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD OF THE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS MORNING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE MODELS MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. ONCE
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO MOVE OUT FOR MORE SUNSHINE THAN OCCURRED SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP CLOSER TO WHAT H8
TEMPS WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST FOR HIGHS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
BETTER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CASCADES...SO WILL NEED TO LEAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THERE THROUGH THE EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW SINKING S ALONG THE BC COAST WILL THEN BRING COOLING
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WED. A NW ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASED
PRESENCE OF MARINE AIR TO THE REGION. MARINE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST PUSHING LOCALLY INLAND DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF CLOUDS COMING UP THE
LOWER COLUMBIA AND INTO THE N PART OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE NW
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH MODEL FORECAST H8 TEMPS DOWN IN THE 12 TO 14 DEG
C RANGE SUGGEST HIGHS TUE AND WED NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF MORNING DRIZZLE ALONG THE N PART OF THE COAST TUE AND WED
 AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM DUE TO DEEPER MARINE AIR AND MAYBE A LITTLE
LIFT BY WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW OVER BC.

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH DECREASING ONSHORE FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO ITS
TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. AS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64 &&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY TODAY WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS REMAINING OVERHEAD. SOME LIGHT CONVECTION ONGOING MOVING
FROM S TO N...WITH SHOWERS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...BUT ALSO A FEW WEAK SHOWERS MAKING
THEIR WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY NEAR KEUG. STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW IN PINPOINTING THE LOCATION/TIMING
OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP...IF ANY MORE DO AT ALL. LOW STRATUS
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AT KONP THROUGH DAYBREAK AND MAY ALSO PUSH ONSHORE FOR THE
NORTH OREGON COAST TOO. OTHERWISE VFR CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING THU BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SCATTERING BY AFTERNOON.
REMAINS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 16Z...BUT VERY
LOW CHANCE OF THIS MATERIALIZING. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...REMAIN
JUST BEYOND THE OUTER WATERS OF CENTRAL OREGON. LIGHTNING APPEARS
TO BE TAPERING OFF WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT REMAINING HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVING FROM S TO N MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT FOR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. FEW LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE
ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUSPECT AN ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE
NECESSARY.

MEANWHILE...OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING A FEW FEET TODAY...BUT
GIVEN THAT SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD AND WIND DRIVEN WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR MON...BUT AN
ADVISOR FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 030927
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON EARLY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE BC COAST
WILL MOVE S DOWN THE COAST...PUSHING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT
THROUGH WED FOR A PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN WATER VPOAR IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS N CA...SLOWLY LIFTING NE. PLENTY OF HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDED THE SHORTWAVES ACROSS WESTERN OREGON...AND
RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN OR
AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AT TIMES THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHTNING SEEN
ACROSS SW OREGON AND OFFSHORE...SUGGESTING SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
INSTABILITY REMAINED. 00Z SOUNDINGS AT SLE AND MFR...AND MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAINED PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD OF THE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS MORNING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE MODELS MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. ONCE
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO MOVE OUT FOR MORE SUNSHINE THAN OCCURRED SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP CLOSER TO WHAT H8
TEMPS WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST FOR HIGHS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
BETTER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CASCADES...SO WILL NEED TO LEAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THERE THROUGH THE EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW SINKING S ALONG THE BC COAST WILL THEN BRING COOLING
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WED. A NW ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASED
PRESENCE OF MARINE AIR TO THE REGION. MARINE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST PUSHING LOCALLY INLAND DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF CLOUDS COMING UP THE
LOWER COLUMBIA AND INTO THE N PART OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE NW
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH MODEL FORECAST H8 TEMPS DOWN IN THE 12 TO 14 DEG
C RANGE SUGGEST HIGHS TUE AND WED NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF MORNING DRIZZLE ALONG THE N PART OF THE COAST TUE AND WED
 AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM DUE TO DEEPER MARINE AIR AND MAYBE A LITTLE
LIFT BY WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW OVER BC.

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH DECREASING ONSHORE FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO ITS
TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. AS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64 &&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY TODAY WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS REMAINING OVERHEAD. SOME LIGHT CONVECTION ONGOING MOVING
FROM S TO N...WITH SHOWERS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS...BUT ALSO A FEW WEAK SHOWERS MAKING
THEIR WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY NEAR KEUG. STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW IN PINPOINTING THE LOCATION/TIMING
OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP...IF ANY MORE DO AT ALL. LOW STRATUS
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AT KONP THROUGH DAYBREAK AND MAY ALSO PUSH ONSHORE FOR THE
NORTH OREGON COAST TOO. OTHERWISE VFR CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING THU BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.


KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SCATTERING BY AFTERNOON.
REMAINS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 16Z...BUT VERY
LOW CHANCE OF THIS MATERIALIZING. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...REMAIN
JUST BEYOND THE OUTER WATERS OF CENTRAL OREGON. LIGHTNING APPEARS
TO BE TAPERING OFF WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT REMAINING HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVING FROM S TO N MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT FOR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. FEW LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE
ON TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUSPECT AN ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE
NECESSARY.

MEANWHILE...OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING A FEW FEET TODAY...BUT
GIVEN THAT SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD AND WIND DRIVEN WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR MON...BUT AN
ADVISOR FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



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