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000
FXUS66 KMFR 260301
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
801 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY FEATURED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB
THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY MONDAY. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE STRATUS WILL FORM LATER
TONIGHT AND CLEAR OUT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW IN REGARDS TO THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...GUIDANCE SUGGEST IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE COAST AFTER 8Z
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP MARINE STRATUS OFFSHORE. INLAND, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AROUND 12Z AND
CONTINUING TO MID/LATE MORNING SATURDAY. HOWEVER THIS MODEL APPEARS
TO BE TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE THE LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES VFR
CONDITIONS AT KRBG AND THE GFS MODEL WHICH SHOWS ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MVFR CIGS. OVERALL EXPECT LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN THE UMPQUA BASIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /CC




&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 700 PM PDT 25 JULY 2014...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO,
BUT MAY NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. GALES ARE EXPECTED BEYOND 10 NM FROM
SHORE SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL EXPAND NORTH
TO AREAS FROM PORT ORFORD SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE GALES FOR AREAS BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO DURING THIS PERIOD. NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO EXPECT MAINLY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
WEAKEN ON TUESDAY BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY TROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK. /CC


&&

.CLIMATE...INTERESTINGLY...WE ARE REACHING THE APEX OF DAILY
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS 93 AT ROGUE VALLEY
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN MEDFORD. THIS LASTS THROUGH EARLY AUGUST
BEFORE DAILY NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THOUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN MANY WEST SIDE LOCATIONS MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY. AS PER THE LAST STRETCH OF HOT TEMPS HAVE MIXED
THE LAYER DOWN ADIABATICALLY FROM 700 MB TOP DETERMINE THE HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RATHER THAN 850 MB TEMPS WHICH SUPPORT A
MUCH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURE. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST
WITH THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN BRINGS A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION AND A COOLER AIR
MASS ALOFT. 500 MB TEMPS DROP FROM -8 TO -9C SATURDAY TO -11
SUNDAY...AND GENERALLY STAY IN THE -9 TO -11 RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THE CONVECTION AS THE MOISTURE FLOW IS
NOT STRONG AND DOES NOT PRECEDE IT FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...WITH
700-500MB RH BARELY TOPPING 60 PERCENT OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN EAST SIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY`S
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION IS NOT MUCH BETTER WITH 700-500 RH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BUT INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. BY TUESDAY
THETA-E ADVECTION HAS PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH TO FINALLY BRING THE
700-500 RH ABOVE 80 PERCENT WITH LI`S AROUND -4 ON THE WEST SIDE.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AROUND
MAX HEATING ON THE EAST SIDE AND ANOTHER SLIGHTLY WEAKER SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE WHERE THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. BY WEDNESDAY THE AREA OF INSTABILITY
SPREADS TO THE COAST WITH THE GFS INDICATING LI`S LOWER THAN -5
OVER THE WEST SIDE WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AROUND MAX HEATING. WITH DUE SOUTHERLY 700 MB WINDS
AROUND 10 KT AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
SIDE THURSDAY WITH THE SAME INSTABILITY PATTERN REMAINING...BUT
THE ONLY SHORT WAVE ON THE EAST SIDE AS A KICKER AND VERY WEAK
STEERING WINDS. AS ALL OF THIS IS IN THE EXTENDED HAVE LEFT THE
CHANCES AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL WALK THE POPS UP AS WE APPROACH
IF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN THE SAME.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ620.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/SBN/CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 260301
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
801 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY FEATURED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB
THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY MONDAY. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE STRATUS WILL FORM LATER
TONIGHT AND CLEAR OUT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW IN REGARDS TO THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...GUIDANCE SUGGEST IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE COAST AFTER 8Z
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP MARINE STRATUS OFFSHORE. INLAND, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AROUND 12Z AND
CONTINUING TO MID/LATE MORNING SATURDAY. HOWEVER THIS MODEL APPEARS
TO BE TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE THE LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES VFR
CONDITIONS AT KRBG AND THE GFS MODEL WHICH SHOWS ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MVFR CIGS. OVERALL EXPECT LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN THE UMPQUA BASIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /CC




&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 700 PM PDT 25 JULY 2014...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO,
BUT MAY NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. GALES ARE EXPECTED BEYOND 10 NM FROM
SHORE SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL EXPAND NORTH
TO AREAS FROM PORT ORFORD SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE GALES FOR AREAS BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO DURING THIS PERIOD. NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO EXPECT MAINLY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
WEAKEN ON TUESDAY BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY TROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK. /CC


&&

.CLIMATE...INTERESTINGLY...WE ARE REACHING THE APEX OF DAILY
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS 93 AT ROGUE VALLEY
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN MEDFORD. THIS LASTS THROUGH EARLY AUGUST
BEFORE DAILY NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THOUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN MANY WEST SIDE LOCATIONS MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY. AS PER THE LAST STRETCH OF HOT TEMPS HAVE MIXED
THE LAYER DOWN ADIABATICALLY FROM 700 MB TOP DETERMINE THE HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RATHER THAN 850 MB TEMPS WHICH SUPPORT A
MUCH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURE. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST
WITH THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN BRINGS A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION AND A COOLER AIR
MASS ALOFT. 500 MB TEMPS DROP FROM -8 TO -9C SATURDAY TO -11
SUNDAY...AND GENERALLY STAY IN THE -9 TO -11 RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THE CONVECTION AS THE MOISTURE FLOW IS
NOT STRONG AND DOES NOT PRECEDE IT FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...WITH
700-500MB RH BARELY TOPPING 60 PERCENT OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN EAST SIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY`S
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION IS NOT MUCH BETTER WITH 700-500 RH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BUT INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. BY TUESDAY
THETA-E ADVECTION HAS PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH TO FINALLY BRING THE
700-500 RH ABOVE 80 PERCENT WITH LI`S AROUND -4 ON THE WEST SIDE.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AROUND
MAX HEATING ON THE EAST SIDE AND ANOTHER SLIGHTLY WEAKER SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE WHERE THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. BY WEDNESDAY THE AREA OF INSTABILITY
SPREADS TO THE COAST WITH THE GFS INDICATING LI`S LOWER THAN -5
OVER THE WEST SIDE WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AROUND MAX HEATING. WITH DUE SOUTHERLY 700 MB WINDS
AROUND 10 KT AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
SIDE THURSDAY WITH THE SAME INSTABILITY PATTERN REMAINING...BUT
THE ONLY SHORT WAVE ON THE EAST SIDE AS A KICKER AND VERY WEAK
STEERING WINDS. AS ALL OF THIS IS IN THE EXTENDED HAVE LEFT THE
CHANCES AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL WALK THE POPS UP AS WE APPROACH
IF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN THE SAME.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ620.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/SBN/CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 260301
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
801 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY FEATURED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB
THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY MONDAY. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE STRATUS WILL FORM LATER
TONIGHT AND CLEAR OUT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW IN REGARDS TO THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...GUIDANCE SUGGEST IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE COAST AFTER 8Z
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP MARINE STRATUS OFFSHORE. INLAND, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AROUND 12Z AND
CONTINUING TO MID/LATE MORNING SATURDAY. HOWEVER THIS MODEL APPEARS
TO BE TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE THE LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES VFR
CONDITIONS AT KRBG AND THE GFS MODEL WHICH SHOWS ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MVFR CIGS. OVERALL EXPECT LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN THE UMPQUA BASIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /CC




&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 700 PM PDT 25 JULY 2014...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO,
BUT MAY NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. GALES ARE EXPECTED BEYOND 10 NM FROM
SHORE SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL EXPAND NORTH
TO AREAS FROM PORT ORFORD SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE GALES FOR AREAS BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO DURING THIS PERIOD. NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO EXPECT MAINLY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
WEAKEN ON TUESDAY BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY TROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK. /CC


&&

.CLIMATE...INTERESTINGLY...WE ARE REACHING THE APEX OF DAILY
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS 93 AT ROGUE VALLEY
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN MEDFORD. THIS LASTS THROUGH EARLY AUGUST
BEFORE DAILY NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THOUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN MANY WEST SIDE LOCATIONS MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY. AS PER THE LAST STRETCH OF HOT TEMPS HAVE MIXED
THE LAYER DOWN ADIABATICALLY FROM 700 MB TOP DETERMINE THE HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RATHER THAN 850 MB TEMPS WHICH SUPPORT A
MUCH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURE. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST
WITH THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN BRINGS A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION AND A COOLER AIR
MASS ALOFT. 500 MB TEMPS DROP FROM -8 TO -9C SATURDAY TO -11
SUNDAY...AND GENERALLY STAY IN THE -9 TO -11 RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THE CONVECTION AS THE MOISTURE FLOW IS
NOT STRONG AND DOES NOT PRECEDE IT FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...WITH
700-500MB RH BARELY TOPPING 60 PERCENT OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN EAST SIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY`S
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION IS NOT MUCH BETTER WITH 700-500 RH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BUT INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. BY TUESDAY
THETA-E ADVECTION HAS PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH TO FINALLY BRING THE
700-500 RH ABOVE 80 PERCENT WITH LI`S AROUND -4 ON THE WEST SIDE.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AROUND
MAX HEATING ON THE EAST SIDE AND ANOTHER SLIGHTLY WEAKER SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE WHERE THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. BY WEDNESDAY THE AREA OF INSTABILITY
SPREADS TO THE COAST WITH THE GFS INDICATING LI`S LOWER THAN -5
OVER THE WEST SIDE WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AROUND MAX HEATING. WITH DUE SOUTHERLY 700 MB WINDS
AROUND 10 KT AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
SIDE THURSDAY WITH THE SAME INSTABILITY PATTERN REMAINING...BUT
THE ONLY SHORT WAVE ON THE EAST SIDE AS A KICKER AND VERY WEAK
STEERING WINDS. AS ALL OF THIS IS IN THE EXTENDED HAVE LEFT THE
CHANCES AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL WALK THE POPS UP AS WE APPROACH
IF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN THE SAME.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ620.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/SBN/CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 260301
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
801 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY FEATURED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB
THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY MONDAY. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE STRATUS WILL FORM LATER
TONIGHT AND CLEAR OUT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW IN REGARDS TO THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...GUIDANCE SUGGEST IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE COAST AFTER 8Z
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP MARINE STRATUS OFFSHORE. INLAND, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AROUND 12Z AND
CONTINUING TO MID/LATE MORNING SATURDAY. HOWEVER THIS MODEL APPEARS
TO BE TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE THE LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES VFR
CONDITIONS AT KRBG AND THE GFS MODEL WHICH SHOWS ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MVFR CIGS. OVERALL EXPECT LOCAL MVFR
CIGS IN THE UMPQUA BASIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /CC




&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 700 PM PDT 25 JULY 2014...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO,
BUT MAY NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. GALES ARE EXPECTED BEYOND 10 NM FROM
SHORE SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL EXPAND NORTH
TO AREAS FROM PORT ORFORD SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE GALES FOR AREAS BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO DURING THIS PERIOD. NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO EXPECT MAINLY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
WEAKEN ON TUESDAY BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY TROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK. /CC


&&

.CLIMATE...INTERESTINGLY...WE ARE REACHING THE APEX OF DAILY
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS 93 AT ROGUE VALLEY
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN MEDFORD. THIS LASTS THROUGH EARLY AUGUST
BEFORE DAILY NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THOUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN MANY WEST SIDE LOCATIONS MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY. AS PER THE LAST STRETCH OF HOT TEMPS HAVE MIXED
THE LAYER DOWN ADIABATICALLY FROM 700 MB TOP DETERMINE THE HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RATHER THAN 850 MB TEMPS WHICH SUPPORT A
MUCH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURE. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST
WITH THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN BRINGS A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION AND A COOLER AIR
MASS ALOFT. 500 MB TEMPS DROP FROM -8 TO -9C SATURDAY TO -11
SUNDAY...AND GENERALLY STAY IN THE -9 TO -11 RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THE CONVECTION AS THE MOISTURE FLOW IS
NOT STRONG AND DOES NOT PRECEDE IT FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...WITH
700-500MB RH BARELY TOPPING 60 PERCENT OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN EAST SIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY`S
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION IS NOT MUCH BETTER WITH 700-500 RH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BUT INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. BY TUESDAY
THETA-E ADVECTION HAS PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH TO FINALLY BRING THE
700-500 RH ABOVE 80 PERCENT WITH LI`S AROUND -4 ON THE WEST SIDE.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AROUND
MAX HEATING ON THE EAST SIDE AND ANOTHER SLIGHTLY WEAKER SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE WHERE THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. BY WEDNESDAY THE AREA OF INSTABILITY
SPREADS TO THE COAST WITH THE GFS INDICATING LI`S LOWER THAN -5
OVER THE WEST SIDE WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AROUND MAX HEATING. WITH DUE SOUTHERLY 700 MB WINDS
AROUND 10 KT AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
SIDE THURSDAY WITH THE SAME INSTABILITY PATTERN REMAINING...BUT
THE ONLY SHORT WAVE ON THE EAST SIDE AS A KICKER AND VERY WEAK
STEERING WINDS. AS ALL OF THIS IS IN THE EXTENDED HAVE LEFT THE
CHANCES AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL WALK THE POPS UP AS WE APPROACH
IF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN THE SAME.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ620.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/SBN/CC






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 260235
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
835 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH VALLEY HIGHS
BACK ABOVE 90F. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT FOR SMOKE IN THE VICINITY OF WILDFIRES.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 10 TO
15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. CLEAR ON SATURDAY
THEN INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY SOUTH OF KTWF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...RAPID WARMING THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NWWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES.  MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH
CLOUDS INTO SRN IDAHO ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY.  HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL BE WEAK UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.  CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIR TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER
30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS...UPPER 40S AND 50S IN THE VALLEYS...
I.E. NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT.  MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT.  MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
BE 6 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AND ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER SUNDAY.  LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE EXTEND PERIOD WILL TRANSPORT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE AND HIGHER POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW IDAHO. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THEN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260235
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
835 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH VALLEY HIGHS
BACK ABOVE 90F. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT FOR SMOKE IN THE VICINITY OF WILDFIRES.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 10 TO
15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. CLEAR ON SATURDAY
THEN INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY SOUTH OF KTWF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...RAPID WARMING THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NWWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES.  MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH
CLOUDS INTO SRN IDAHO ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY.  HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL BE WEAK UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.  CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIR TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER
30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS...UPPER 40S AND 50S IN THE VALLEYS...
I.E. NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT.  MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT.  MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
BE 6 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AND ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER SUNDAY.  LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE EXTEND PERIOD WILL TRANSPORT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE AND HIGHER POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW IDAHO. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THEN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260235
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
835 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH VALLEY HIGHS
BACK ABOVE 90F. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT FOR SMOKE IN THE VICINITY OF WILDFIRES.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 10 TO
15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. CLEAR ON SATURDAY
THEN INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY SOUTH OF KTWF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...RAPID WARMING THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NWWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES.  MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH
CLOUDS INTO SRN IDAHO ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY.  HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL BE WEAK UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.  CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIR TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER
30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS...UPPER 40S AND 50S IN THE VALLEYS...
I.E. NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT.  MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT.  MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
BE 6 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AND ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER SUNDAY.  LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE EXTEND PERIOD WILL TRANSPORT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE AND HIGHER POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW IDAHO. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THEN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260235
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
835 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH VALLEY HIGHS
BACK ABOVE 90F. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT FOR SMOKE IN THE VICINITY OF WILDFIRES.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 10 TO
15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. CLEAR ON SATURDAY
THEN INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY SOUTH OF KTWF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...RAPID WARMING THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NWWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES.  MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH
CLOUDS INTO SRN IDAHO ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY.  HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL BE WEAK UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.  CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIR TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER
30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS...UPPER 40S AND 50S IN THE VALLEYS...
I.E. NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT.  MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT.  MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
BE 6 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AND ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER SUNDAY.  LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE EXTEND PERIOD WILL TRANSPORT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE AND HIGHER POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW IDAHO. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THEN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/AB



000
FXUS66 KMFR 252142
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
242 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THOUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN MANY WEST SIDE LOCATIONS MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY. AS PER THE LAST STRETCH OF HOT TEMPS HAVE MIXED
THE LAYER DOWN ADIABATICALLY FROM 700 MB TOP DETERMINE THE HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RATHER THAN 850 MB TEMPS WHICH SUPPORT A
MUCH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURE. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST
WITH THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN BRINGS A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION AND A COOLER AIR
MASS ALOFT. 500 MB TEMPS DROP FROM -8 TO -9C SATURDAY TO -11
SUNDAY...AND GENERALLY STAY IN THE -9 TO -11 RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THE CONVECTION AS THE MOISTURE FLOW IS
NOT STRONG AND DOES NOT PROCEED IT FOR A LONG PERIOD OF
TIME...WITH 700-500MB RH BARELY TOPPING 60 PERCENT OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN EAST SIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAYS CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION IS NOT MUCH BETTER WITH 700-500 RH
ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BUT INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. BY
TUESDAY THETA-E ADVECTION HAS PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH TO FINALLY
BRING THE 700-500 RH ABOVE 80 PERCENT WITH LI`S AROUND -4 ON THE
WEST SIDE. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH AROUND MAX HEATING ON THE EAST SIDE AND ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE WHERE
THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. BY WEDNESDAY THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY SPREADS TO THE COAST WITH THE GFS INDICATING LI`S
LOWER THAN -5 OVER THE WEST SIDE WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AROUND MAX HEATING. WITH DUE SOUTHERLY
700 MB WINDS AROUND 10 KT AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES
LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS PATTERN LOOKS
TO SHIFT TO THE EAST SIDE THURSDAY WITH THE SAME INSTABILITY
PATTERN REMAINING...BUT THE ONLY SHORT WAVE ON THE EAST SIDE AS A
KICKER AND VERY WEAK STEERING WINDS. AS ALL OF THIS IS IN THE
EXTENDED HAVE LEFT THE CHANCES AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL WALK THE
POPS UP AS WE APPROACH IF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN THE SAME.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/18Z TAFS...

GUIDANCE SUGGEST IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE COAST AFTER 8Z
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP MARINE STRATUS OFFSHORE. INLAND, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE NAM SHOWS
THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING UP AROUND 12Z IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST TEMPORARY IFR/MVFR CIGS AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE LAMP GUIDANCE THE LAST FEW HOURLY RUNS DO NOT
SHOW THIS AND MAINTAINS VFR CIGS. FOR NOW KEPT THE STRATUS AND MVFR
CIGS FOR THE TAF AT KRBG AROUND 12Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT 25 JULY 2014...

A THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
MARINE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, BUT MAY NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS
AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE THERMAL TROUGH
PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SPILDE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 252105
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
205 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INLAND OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND REMAIN NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND
DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES NEAR THE CREST BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS
REMAINING ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AND WILLAPA HILLS TO JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF ASTORIA. TEMPS INLAND ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
AHEAD OF THOSE THURSDAY...SO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 STILL APPEAR
WITHIN REACH.

AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BUILD MORE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MORE WARMING TO THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. THE MAIN AREA OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH
COAST WITH A FINGER EXTENDING INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO NEAR
PORTLAND. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
INLAND IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. AGAIN...THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY
LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG THE FAR NORTH COAST...AND
LOCALLY INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH SUNDAY INTO CENTRAL OREGON FROM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THAT MAY GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY TYPE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST IN OREGON.

MONDAY IS LOOKING MUCH LIKE A REPEAT OF SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS INLAND
VERY SIMILAR...CLOSE TO 90. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DRY TYPE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST
IN OREGON...MAINLY SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON OR SOUTH OF SANTIAM PASS.
ANY LOW CLOUDS ON MONDAY MAY NOT REACH PORTLAND. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL AMPLIFY AND
RETROGRADE WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED NEAR THE ROCKIES OR EASTERN GREAT
BASIN BY MID WEEK. SOME VARIATION REMAINS IN THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN THE FCST MODELS AND AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH WILL
THAT WILL IMPACT WHERE THE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. SO WHILE SOME OF
THE FINER DETAILS WILL BE WORKED OUT IN TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASINGLY HIGH IN THE GENERAL PICTURE. NAMELY...TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EACH DAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON AND LANE COUNTY
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. EXPANDED AREAS FOR WED ONWARD IN THESE
LOCATIONS...GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS BUT ALSO WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE...GENERALIZED THE AREAS AND TIMING OF POTENTIAL FOR NOW AND
WILL FINE TUNE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT
WEEK.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
MVFR STRATUS WITH CIGS AROUND 1500-2000 FT RETURNS ALONG THE COAST
AND COAST RANGE BETWEEN 10Z- 12Z SAT...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING THE SW
WA AND NW OR COAST. MAY SEE SOME MVFR STRATUS WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER AFTER 12Z SAT...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 16Z-17Z SAT.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL OR COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS. SHALLOW
MVFR STRATUS WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER
AFTER 12Z SAT...WITH CIGS AROUND 1500-2000 FT POSSIBLE THROUGH
16Z-18Z SAT. /27
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT TUE...WHILE THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF WILL
STRENGTHEN A BIT. EXPECT STRONGER NORTH WINDS TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR LATE
SATURDAY...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.

OTHERWISE...SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT...BUT BECOME CHOPPY AT 5 TO 7
FT S OF NEWPORT IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS DUE TO GUSTY N WINDS. THE
STRONG EBB CURRENTS EACH MORNING WILL ALSO CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS
OVER THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. ROCKEY/27
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 252105
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
205 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INLAND OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND REMAIN NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND
DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES NEAR THE CREST BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS
REMAINING ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AND WILLAPA HILLS TO JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF ASTORIA. TEMPS INLAND ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
AHEAD OF THOSE THURSDAY...SO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 STILL APPEAR
WITHIN REACH.

AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BUILD MORE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MORE WARMING TO THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. THE MAIN AREA OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH
COAST WITH A FINGER EXTENDING INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO NEAR
PORTLAND. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
INLAND IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. AGAIN...THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY
LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG THE FAR NORTH COAST...AND
LOCALLY INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH SUNDAY INTO CENTRAL OREGON FROM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THAT MAY GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY TYPE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST IN OREGON.

MONDAY IS LOOKING MUCH LIKE A REPEAT OF SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS INLAND
VERY SIMILAR...CLOSE TO 90. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DRY TYPE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST
IN OREGON...MAINLY SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON OR SOUTH OF SANTIAM PASS.
ANY LOW CLOUDS ON MONDAY MAY NOT REACH PORTLAND. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL AMPLIFY AND
RETROGRADE WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED NEAR THE ROCKIES OR EASTERN GREAT
BASIN BY MID WEEK. SOME VARIATION REMAINS IN THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN THE FCST MODELS AND AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH WILL
THAT WILL IMPACT WHERE THE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. SO WHILE SOME OF
THE FINER DETAILS WILL BE WORKED OUT IN TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASINGLY HIGH IN THE GENERAL PICTURE. NAMELY...TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EACH DAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON AND LANE COUNTY
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. EXPANDED AREAS FOR WED ONWARD IN THESE
LOCATIONS...GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS BUT ALSO WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE...GENERALIZED THE AREAS AND TIMING OF POTENTIAL FOR NOW AND
WILL FINE TUNE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT
WEEK.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
MVFR STRATUS WITH CIGS AROUND 1500-2000 FT RETURNS ALONG THE COAST
AND COAST RANGE BETWEEN 10Z- 12Z SAT...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING THE SW
WA AND NW OR COAST. MAY SEE SOME MVFR STRATUS WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER AFTER 12Z SAT...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 16Z-17Z SAT.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL OR COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS. SHALLOW
MVFR STRATUS WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER
AFTER 12Z SAT...WITH CIGS AROUND 1500-2000 FT POSSIBLE THROUGH
16Z-18Z SAT. /27
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT TUE...WHILE THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF WILL
STRENGTHEN A BIT. EXPECT STRONGER NORTH WINDS TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR LATE
SATURDAY...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.

OTHERWISE...SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT...BUT BECOME CHOPPY AT 5 TO 7
FT S OF NEWPORT IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS DUE TO GUSTY N WINDS. THE
STRONG EBB CURRENTS EACH MORNING WILL ALSO CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS
OVER THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. ROCKEY/27
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 252105
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
205 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INLAND OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND REMAIN NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND
DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES NEAR THE CREST BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS
REMAINING ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AND WILLAPA HILLS TO JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF ASTORIA. TEMPS INLAND ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
AHEAD OF THOSE THURSDAY...SO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 STILL APPEAR
WITHIN REACH.

AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BUILD MORE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MORE WARMING TO THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. THE MAIN AREA OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH
COAST WITH A FINGER EXTENDING INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO NEAR
PORTLAND. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
INLAND IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. AGAIN...THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY
LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG THE FAR NORTH COAST...AND
LOCALLY INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH SUNDAY INTO CENTRAL OREGON FROM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THAT MAY GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY TYPE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST IN OREGON.

MONDAY IS LOOKING MUCH LIKE A REPEAT OF SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS INLAND
VERY SIMILAR...CLOSE TO 90. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DRY TYPE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST
IN OREGON...MAINLY SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON OR SOUTH OF SANTIAM PASS.
ANY LOW CLOUDS ON MONDAY MAY NOT REACH PORTLAND. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL AMPLIFY AND
RETROGRADE WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED NEAR THE ROCKIES OR EASTERN GREAT
BASIN BY MID WEEK. SOME VARIATION REMAINS IN THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN THE FCST MODELS AND AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH WILL
THAT WILL IMPACT WHERE THE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. SO WHILE SOME OF
THE FINER DETAILS WILL BE WORKED OUT IN TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASINGLY HIGH IN THE GENERAL PICTURE. NAMELY...TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EACH DAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON AND LANE COUNTY
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. EXPANDED AREAS FOR WED ONWARD IN THESE
LOCATIONS...GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS BUT ALSO WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE...GENERALIZED THE AREAS AND TIMING OF POTENTIAL FOR NOW AND
WILL FINE TUNE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT
WEEK.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
MVFR STRATUS WITH CIGS AROUND 1500-2000 FT RETURNS ALONG THE COAST
AND COAST RANGE BETWEEN 10Z- 12Z SAT...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING THE SW
WA AND NW OR COAST. MAY SEE SOME MVFR STRATUS WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER AFTER 12Z SAT...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 16Z-17Z SAT.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL OR COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS. SHALLOW
MVFR STRATUS WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER
AFTER 12Z SAT...WITH CIGS AROUND 1500-2000 FT POSSIBLE THROUGH
16Z-18Z SAT. /27
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT TUE...WHILE THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF WILL
STRENGTHEN A BIT. EXPECT STRONGER NORTH WINDS TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR LATE
SATURDAY...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.

OTHERWISE...SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT...BUT BECOME CHOPPY AT 5 TO 7
FT S OF NEWPORT IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS DUE TO GUSTY N WINDS. THE
STRONG EBB CURRENTS EACH MORNING WILL ALSO CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS
OVER THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. ROCKEY/27
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 252105
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
205 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INLAND OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND REMAIN NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND
DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CASCADES NEAR THE CREST BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS
REMAINING ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AND WILLAPA HILLS TO JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF ASTORIA. TEMPS INLAND ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
AHEAD OF THOSE THURSDAY...SO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 STILL APPEAR
WITHIN REACH.

AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BUILD MORE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MORE WARMING TO THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. THE MAIN AREA OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH
COAST WITH A FINGER EXTENDING INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO NEAR
PORTLAND. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
INLAND IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. AGAIN...THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY
LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG THE FAR NORTH COAST...AND
LOCALLY INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH SUNDAY INTO CENTRAL OREGON FROM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THAT MAY GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY TYPE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST IN OREGON.

MONDAY IS LOOKING MUCH LIKE A REPEAT OF SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS INLAND
VERY SIMILAR...CLOSE TO 90. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DRY TYPE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST
IN OREGON...MAINLY SOUTH OF MOUNT JEFFERSON OR SOUTH OF SANTIAM PASS.
ANY LOW CLOUDS ON MONDAY MAY NOT REACH PORTLAND. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL AMPLIFY AND
RETROGRADE WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED NEAR THE ROCKIES OR EASTERN GREAT
BASIN BY MID WEEK. SOME VARIATION REMAINS IN THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN THE FCST MODELS AND AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH WILL
THAT WILL IMPACT WHERE THE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. SO WHILE SOME OF
THE FINER DETAILS WILL BE WORKED OUT IN TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASINGLY HIGH IN THE GENERAL PICTURE. NAMELY...TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EACH DAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON AND LANE COUNTY
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS. EXPANDED AREAS FOR WED ONWARD IN THESE
LOCATIONS...GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS BUT ALSO WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE...GENERALIZED THE AREAS AND TIMING OF POTENTIAL FOR NOW AND
WILL FINE TUNE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT
WEEK.  CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
MVFR STRATUS WITH CIGS AROUND 1500-2000 FT RETURNS ALONG THE COAST
AND COAST RANGE BETWEEN 10Z- 12Z SAT...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING THE SW
WA AND NW OR COAST. MAY SEE SOME MVFR STRATUS WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER AFTER 12Z SAT...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 16Z-17Z SAT.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL OR COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS. SHALLOW
MVFR STRATUS WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER
AFTER 12Z SAT...WITH CIGS AROUND 1500-2000 FT POSSIBLE THROUGH
16Z-18Z SAT. /27
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT TUE...WHILE THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW CALIF WILL
STRENGTHEN A BIT. EXPECT STRONGER NORTH WINDS TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR LATE
SATURDAY...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.

OTHERWISE...SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT...BUT BECOME CHOPPY AT 5 TO 7
FT S OF NEWPORT IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS DUE TO GUSTY N WINDS. THE
STRONG EBB CURRENTS EACH MORNING WILL ALSO CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS
OVER THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. ROCKEY/27
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OUT
     60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPDT 252045
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
145 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FLAT WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB EACH DAY AND COULD BE AROUND 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN BY MONDAY. THE AMPLIFYING
HIGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN
AROUND 100. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY MOVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE AT TIMES...AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AS UNSTABLE FLOW COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING
FRIDAY. YET FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CHANCES LESS THAN 25 PERCENT EACH DAY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF EACH WAVE AND LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  COBB


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL MAINLY
BE 10 KTS OR LESS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.  82


&&

.FIRE WX...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
DECREASE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVER WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
POOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGETOPS BY MONDAY. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE THE MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OREGON AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO A SMALL
DISTURBANCE...THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ZONES 611...610 AND
INTO 640. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH MORE
AREAS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK. DMH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  89  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  59  90  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  58  92  61  97 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  52  88  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  55  92  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  51  86  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  43  87  50  90 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  48  86  54  91 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  51  89  57  93 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  57  90  61  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 252045
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
145 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FLAT WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB EACH DAY AND COULD BE AROUND 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN BY MONDAY. THE AMPLIFYING
HIGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN
AROUND 100. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY MOVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE AT TIMES...AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AS UNSTABLE FLOW COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING
FRIDAY. YET FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CHANCES LESS THAN 25 PERCENT EACH DAY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF EACH WAVE AND LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  COBB


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL MAINLY
BE 10 KTS OR LESS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.  82


&&

.FIRE WX...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
DECREASE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVER WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
POOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGETOPS BY MONDAY. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE THE MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OREGON AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO A SMALL
DISTURBANCE...THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ZONES 611...610 AND
INTO 640. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH MORE
AREAS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK. DMH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  89  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  59  90  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  58  92  61  97 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  52  88  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  55  92  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  51  86  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  43  87  50  90 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  48  86  54  91 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  51  89  57  93 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  57  90  61  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 252045
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
145 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FLAT WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB EACH DAY AND COULD BE AROUND 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN BY MONDAY. THE AMPLIFYING
HIGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN
AROUND 100. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY MOVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE AT TIMES...AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AS UNSTABLE FLOW COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING
FRIDAY. YET FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CHANCES LESS THAN 25 PERCENT EACH DAY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF EACH WAVE AND LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  COBB


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL MAINLY
BE 10 KTS OR LESS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.  82


&&

.FIRE WX...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
DECREASE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVER WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
POOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGETOPS BY MONDAY. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE THE MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OREGON AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO A SMALL
DISTURBANCE...THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ZONES 611...610 AND
INTO 640. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH MORE
AREAS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK. DMH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  89  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  59  90  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  58  92  61  97 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  52  88  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  55  92  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  51  86  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  43  87  50  90 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  48  86  54  91 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  51  89  57  93 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  57  90  61  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 252045
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
145 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FLAT WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB EACH DAY AND COULD BE AROUND 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN BY MONDAY. THE AMPLIFYING
HIGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN
AROUND 100. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY MOVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE AT TIMES...AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AS UNSTABLE FLOW COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING
FRIDAY. YET FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CHANCES LESS THAN 25 PERCENT EACH DAY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF EACH WAVE AND LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  COBB


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL MAINLY
BE 10 KTS OR LESS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.  82


&&

.FIRE WX...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
DECREASE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVER WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
POOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGETOPS BY MONDAY. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE THE MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OREGON AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO A SMALL
DISTURBANCE...THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ZONES 611...610 AND
INTO 640. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH MORE
AREAS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK. DMH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  89  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  59  90  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  58  92  61  97 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  52  88  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  55  92  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  51  86  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  43  87  50  90 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  48  86  54  91 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  51  89  57  93 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  57  90  61  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82









000
FXUS65 KBOI 252021
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
221 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...RAPID WARMING THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NWWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES.  MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH
CLOUDS INTO SRN IDAHO ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY.  HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL BE WEAK UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.  CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIR TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER
30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS...UPPER 40S AND 50S IN THE VALLEYS...
I.E. NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT.  MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT.  MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
BE 6 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AND ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER SUNDAY.  LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE EXTEND PERIOD WILL TRANSPORT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE AND HIGHER POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW IDAHO. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THEN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE EXTEND PERIOD WILL TRANSPORT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE SHOW MORE
MOISTURE AND HIGHER POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW IDAHO. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THEN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SMOKE IN VICINITY OF WILDFIRES.
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY
10 TO 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS/AB
AVIATION.....JDS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 252021
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
221 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...RAPID WARMING THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NWWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES.  MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH
CLOUDS INTO SRN IDAHO ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY.  HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL BE WEAK UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.  CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIR TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP TO THE UPPER
30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS...UPPER 40S AND 50S IN THE VALLEYS...
I.E. NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT.  MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT.  MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
BE 6 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AND ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER SUNDAY.  LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE EXTEND PERIOD WILL TRANSPORT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE AND HIGHER POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW IDAHO. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THEN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE EXTEND PERIOD WILL TRANSPORT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE SHOW MORE
MOISTURE AND HIGHER POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW IDAHO. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THEN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SMOKE IN VICINITY OF WILDFIRES.
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY
10 TO 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS/AB
AVIATION.....JDS



000
FXUS66 KPDT 251709 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1009 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION FROM A DRY FLAT WESTERLY FLOW TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND OF AROUND 4 TO 8
DEGREES TODAY AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
AND MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
MAY DEVELOP NEAR KBDN, KRDM AND KYKM. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE 10 KTS OR
LESS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KDLS WHERE WINDS
WILL BE GUSTIER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  82

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 420 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A 4 CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTH AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF IT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY ISOLATED. IF ANY DOES FORM PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT IF ANY. THIS MAY CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL OREGON. WILL BRIEF THE DAY SHIFT
AND FIRE WEATHER SHIFT ON THIS SCENARIO. IN THE MEAN TIME THERE WILL
BE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TODAY TOPPING
OUT IN THE 80S (70S MOUNTAINS)...WARMING TO THE MID 90S (80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS) BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN AROUND 100. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY
MOVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AT TIMES. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW COMBINES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED PARTICULARLY AT LOWER
LEVELS. BASED ON THIS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON.  COONFIELD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  52  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  83  59  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  87  58  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  83  52  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  85  55  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  82  43  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  79  48  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  81  51  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  84  57  90  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82






000
FXUS66 KMFR 251610 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
910 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT THE ONLY
LINGERING CLOUDS ARE IN THE UMPQUA BASIN INLAND...AND THAT SHOULD
URN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
WILL NOT UPDATE THIS MORNING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY RELATES TO
FIRE WEATHER AS GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN SOUTHWEST OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS WITH GUSTS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED. FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, IT WILL BE
EVEN WARMER AND STILL VERY DRY BUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG.

OUR AREA IS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES WHILE
A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
WARMING TREND IS STILL ON TRACK TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALL
WEEK AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES. ANOTHER COUPLE OF CONSISTENT
ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE STRONG NORTHERLY COASTAL WINDS THAT
WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AND THEN
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE WEEK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTABILITY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
IN THE DETAIL OF WHICH DAYS AND WHICH AREAS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LIMITED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT A SHORTWAVE OFFSHORE FROM EUREKA
EARLY ON SUNDAY THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND COULD INITIATE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON SISKIYOUS AND CASCADES.

ON MONDAY, MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SIERRA NEVADA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE HIGHEST EAST OF THE CASCADES.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT ALSO
THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED OCCURRENCE COMPARED TO THE PRECEDING
COUPLE OF DAYS.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BUT, THE GFS STILL INDICATES
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA
THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
THAT FAR INTO THE FUTURE.

FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THE QUESTION BECOMES THE TIMING AT WHICH
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND THE PACIFIC TROUGH BRINGS AN ONSHORE
PUSH WITH COOLER COASTAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER INLAND
TEMPERATURES. MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND HEAT TO CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF NIGHT-TIME CONVECTION DEPENDING UPON THE PRESENCE
OF ANY SHORTWAVES.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/12Z TAFS...

AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG ARE FORMING OVER THE COASTAL VALLEYS
OF NORTHERN CURRY, COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS WELL AS
IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. THESE CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KOTH, BUT STAND A
BETTER CHANCE AT STICKING AROUND FOR A FEW HOURS AT KRBG. THESE
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID-LATE MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A BREEZY AFTERNOON OVER THE
COAST RANGES AND THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. A MIX OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS
LIKELY RETURNS TO THE NORTH COAST AND UMPQUA VALLEY OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT 25 JULY 2014...

A THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
MARINE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, BUT MAY NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS
AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE THERMAL TROUGH
PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SPILDE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY, AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY...DOWN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. A THERMAL TROUGH IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWESTERN OREGON WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG TODAY AS IT
WAS YESTERDAY. BUT, STILL THINK WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 20 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS
AND AS SUCH WE HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING AT RFWMFR. IT WILL
ALSO BE VERY DRY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
EAST SIDE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT IN MANY CASES.
BUT IN THOSE AREAS, WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 20 MPH. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ620.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/MAS







000
FXUS66 KMFR 251610 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
910 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT THE ONLY
LINGERING CLOUDS ARE IN THE UMPQUA BASIN INLAND...AND THAT SHOULD
URN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
WILL NOT UPDATE THIS MORNING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
SKIES REMAINING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY RELATES TO
FIRE WEATHER AS GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN SOUTHWEST OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS WITH GUSTS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED. FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, IT WILL BE
EVEN WARMER AND STILL VERY DRY BUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG.

OUR AREA IS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES WHILE
A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
WARMING TREND IS STILL ON TRACK TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALL
WEEK AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES. ANOTHER COUPLE OF CONSISTENT
ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE STRONG NORTHERLY COASTAL WINDS THAT
WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AND THEN
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE WEEK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTABILITY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
IN THE DETAIL OF WHICH DAYS AND WHICH AREAS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LIMITED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT A SHORTWAVE OFFSHORE FROM EUREKA
EARLY ON SUNDAY THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND COULD INITIATE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON SISKIYOUS AND CASCADES.

ON MONDAY, MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SIERRA NEVADA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE HIGHEST EAST OF THE CASCADES.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT ALSO
THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED OCCURRENCE COMPARED TO THE PRECEDING
COUPLE OF DAYS.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BUT, THE GFS STILL INDICATES
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA
THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
THAT FAR INTO THE FUTURE.

FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THE QUESTION BECOMES THE TIMING AT WHICH
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND THE PACIFIC TROUGH BRINGS AN ONSHORE
PUSH WITH COOLER COASTAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER INLAND
TEMPERATURES. MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND HEAT TO CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF NIGHT-TIME CONVECTION DEPENDING UPON THE PRESENCE
OF ANY SHORTWAVES.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/12Z TAFS...

AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG ARE FORMING OVER THE COASTAL VALLEYS
OF NORTHERN CURRY, COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS WELL AS
IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. THESE CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KOTH, BUT STAND A
BETTER CHANCE AT STICKING AROUND FOR A FEW HOURS AT KRBG. THESE
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID-LATE MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A BREEZY AFTERNOON OVER THE
COAST RANGES AND THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. A MIX OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS
LIKELY RETURNS TO THE NORTH COAST AND UMPQUA VALLEY OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT 25 JULY 2014...

A THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
MARINE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, BUT MAY NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS
AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE THERMAL TROUGH
PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SPILDE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY, AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY...DOWN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. A THERMAL TROUGH IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWESTERN OREGON WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG TODAY AS IT
WAS YESTERDAY. BUT, STILL THINK WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 20 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS
AND AS SUCH WE HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING AT RFWMFR. IT WILL
ALSO BE VERY DRY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
EAST SIDE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT IN MANY CASES.
BUT IN THOSE AREAS, WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 20 MPH. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ620.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/MAS








000
FXUS66 KPQR 251607
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR THE CREST
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME
MORE CONFINED TO THE COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WEAKLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVED THROUGH...MAINTAINING SOME CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
TO OUR NORTH WITH JUST SOME PATCHY STRATUS INLAND ALONG THE NORTH
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND IN SOME OF THE MORE ELEVATED RIVER VALLEYS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR MOST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY HANG ON ALONG THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. 850 TEMPS SUPPORT INLAND TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD MORE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MORE WARMING TO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS INLAND IN THE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER AND MAY NOT BE VERY SOLID. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
INLAND IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. AGAIN...THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY
LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG THE FAR NORTH COAST...WITH
PATCHY CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THERE IS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH SUNDAY INTO CENTRAL OREGON FROM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THAT MAY GIVE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE CASCADE CREST IN OREGON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THEPATTERN FROM SUNDAY AS WE GO INTO NEXT
WEEK. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...PUTTING OUR REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST UP THE RIDGE NEAR OUR
REGION.  MOST OF THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MISS OUR AREA...BUT A
CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...POCKETS OF MVFR AND IFR STRATUS WITH CIGS AROUND 500-1500
FT NEAR KTMK AND OVER THE COAST RANGE...ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND
AGAINST THE CASCADES WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER 16Z-17Z. WILL SEE MVFR
STRATUS RETURN AFTER 03Z SAT ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY WORK ITS
WAY ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER EARLY SAT AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR STRATUS AROUND 1000 FT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TO VFR THROUGH 17Z THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z...WITH MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLY RETURNING ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER EARLY SAT AM. KHIO WILL REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HRS. /27
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUE. MEANWHILE...THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW
CALIF WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT. THIS WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO
COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTY WINDS S OF CASCADE IN AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. MAY HAVE FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THAT AREA TODAY...BUT
GRADIENTS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE YET. APPEARS THAT THE GUSTS 25 TO
30 KT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON.

SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT...BUT BECOME CHOPPY AT 5 TO 7 FT S OF
NEWPORT IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS DUE TO GUSTY N WINDS. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 251607
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR THE CREST
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME
MORE CONFINED TO THE COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WEAKLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVED THROUGH...MAINTAINING SOME CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
TO OUR NORTH WITH JUST SOME PATCHY STRATUS INLAND ALONG THE NORTH
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND IN SOME OF THE MORE ELEVATED RIVER VALLEYS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR MOST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY HANG ON ALONG THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. 850 TEMPS SUPPORT INLAND TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD MORE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MORE WARMING TO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS INLAND IN THE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER AND MAY NOT BE VERY SOLID. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
INLAND IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. AGAIN...THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY
LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG THE FAR NORTH COAST...WITH
PATCHY CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THERE IS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH SUNDAY INTO CENTRAL OREGON FROM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THAT MAY GIVE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE CASCADE CREST IN OREGON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THEPATTERN FROM SUNDAY AS WE GO INTO NEXT
WEEK. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...PUTTING OUR REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST UP THE RIDGE NEAR OUR
REGION.  MOST OF THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MISS OUR AREA...BUT A
CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...POCKETS OF MVFR AND IFR STRATUS WITH CIGS AROUND 500-1500
FT NEAR KTMK AND OVER THE COAST RANGE...ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND
AGAINST THE CASCADES WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER 16Z-17Z. WILL SEE MVFR
STRATUS RETURN AFTER 03Z SAT ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY WORK ITS
WAY ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER EARLY SAT AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR STRATUS AROUND 1000 FT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TO VFR THROUGH 17Z THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z...WITH MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLY RETURNING ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER EARLY SAT AM. KHIO WILL REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HRS. /27
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUE. MEANWHILE...THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW
CALIF WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT. THIS WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO
COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTY WINDS S OF CASCADE IN AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. MAY HAVE FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THAT AREA TODAY...BUT
GRADIENTS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE YET. APPEARS THAT THE GUSTS 25 TO
30 KT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON.

SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT...BUT BECOME CHOPPY AT 5 TO 7 FT S OF
NEWPORT IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS DUE TO GUSTY N WINDS. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 251607
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR THE CREST
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME
MORE CONFINED TO THE COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WEAKLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVED THROUGH...MAINTAINING SOME CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
TO OUR NORTH WITH JUST SOME PATCHY STRATUS INLAND ALONG THE NORTH
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND IN SOME OF THE MORE ELEVATED RIVER VALLEYS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR MOST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY HANG ON ALONG THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. 850 TEMPS SUPPORT INLAND TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD MORE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MORE WARMING TO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS INLAND IN THE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER AND MAY NOT BE VERY SOLID. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
INLAND IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. AGAIN...THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY
LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG THE FAR NORTH COAST...WITH
PATCHY CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THERE IS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH SUNDAY INTO CENTRAL OREGON FROM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THAT MAY GIVE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE CASCADE CREST IN OREGON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THEPATTERN FROM SUNDAY AS WE GO INTO NEXT
WEEK. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...PUTTING OUR REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST UP THE RIDGE NEAR OUR
REGION.  MOST OF THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MISS OUR AREA...BUT A
CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...POCKETS OF MVFR AND IFR STRATUS WITH CIGS AROUND 500-1500
FT NEAR KTMK AND OVER THE COAST RANGE...ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND
AGAINST THE CASCADES WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER 16Z-17Z. WILL SEE MVFR
STRATUS RETURN AFTER 03Z SAT ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY WORK ITS
WAY ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER EARLY SAT AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR STRATUS AROUND 1000 FT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TO VFR THROUGH 17Z THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z...WITH MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLY RETURNING ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER EARLY SAT AM. KHIO WILL REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HRS. /27
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUE. MEANWHILE...THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW
CALIF WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT. THIS WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO
COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTY WINDS S OF CASCADE IN AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. MAY HAVE FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THAT AREA TODAY...BUT
GRADIENTS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE YET. APPEARS THAT THE GUSTS 25 TO
30 KT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON.

SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT...BUT BECOME CHOPPY AT 5 TO 7 FT S OF
NEWPORT IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS DUE TO GUSTY N WINDS. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 251607
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR THE CREST
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME
MORE CONFINED TO THE COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WEAKLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVED THROUGH...MAINTAINING SOME CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
TO OUR NORTH WITH JUST SOME PATCHY STRATUS INLAND ALONG THE NORTH
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND IN SOME OF THE MORE ELEVATED RIVER VALLEYS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR MOST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY HANG ON ALONG THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. 850 TEMPS SUPPORT INLAND TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD MORE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MORE WARMING TO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS INLAND IN THE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER AND MAY NOT BE VERY SOLID. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
INLAND IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. AGAIN...THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY
LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG THE FAR NORTH COAST...WITH
PATCHY CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THERE IS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH SUNDAY INTO CENTRAL OREGON FROM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THAT MAY GIVE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE CASCADE CREST IN OREGON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THEPATTERN FROM SUNDAY AS WE GO INTO NEXT
WEEK. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...PUTTING OUR REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST UP THE RIDGE NEAR OUR
REGION.  MOST OF THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MISS OUR AREA...BUT A
CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...POCKETS OF MVFR AND IFR STRATUS WITH CIGS AROUND 500-1500
FT NEAR KTMK AND OVER THE COAST RANGE...ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND
AGAINST THE CASCADES WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER 16Z-17Z. WILL SEE MVFR
STRATUS RETURN AFTER 03Z SAT ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY WORK ITS
WAY ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER EARLY SAT AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR STRATUS AROUND 1000 FT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TO VFR THROUGH 17Z THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z...WITH MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLY RETURNING ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER EARLY SAT AM. KHIO WILL REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HRS. /27
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUE. MEANWHILE...THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW
CALIF WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT. THIS WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO
COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTY WINDS S OF CASCADE IN AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. MAY HAVE FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THAT AREA TODAY...BUT
GRADIENTS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE YET. APPEARS THAT THE GUSTS 25 TO
30 KT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON.

SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT...BUT BECOME CHOPPY AT 5 TO 7 FT S OF
NEWPORT IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS DUE TO GUSTY N WINDS. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 251607
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR THE CREST
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME
MORE CONFINED TO THE COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WEAKLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVED THROUGH...MAINTAINING SOME CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
TO OUR NORTH WITH JUST SOME PATCHY STRATUS INLAND ALONG THE NORTH
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND IN SOME OF THE MORE ELEVATED RIVER VALLEYS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR MOST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS MAY HANG ON ALONG THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. 850 TEMPS SUPPORT INLAND TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD MORE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MORE WARMING TO THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS INLAND IN THE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER AND MAY NOT BE VERY SOLID. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
INLAND IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. AGAIN...THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY
LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG THE FAR NORTH COAST...WITH
PATCHY CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THERE IS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH SUNDAY INTO CENTRAL OREGON FROM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THAT MAY GIVE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE CASCADE CREST IN OREGON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THEPATTERN FROM SUNDAY AS WE GO INTO NEXT
WEEK. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...PUTTING OUR REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST UP THE RIDGE NEAR OUR
REGION.  MOST OF THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MISS OUR AREA...BUT A
CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...POCKETS OF MVFR AND IFR STRATUS WITH CIGS AROUND 500-1500
FT NEAR KTMK AND OVER THE COAST RANGE...ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND
AGAINST THE CASCADES WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER 16Z-17Z. WILL SEE MVFR
STRATUS RETURN AFTER 03Z SAT ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY WORK ITS
WAY ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER EARLY SAT AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR STRATUS AROUND 1000 FT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TO VFR THROUGH 17Z THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z...WITH MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLY RETURNING ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER EARLY SAT AM. KHIO WILL REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HRS. /27
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUE. MEANWHILE...THERMAL LOW PRES OVER NW
CALIF WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT. THIS WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO
COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTY WINDS S OF CASCADE IN AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. MAY HAVE FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THAT AREA TODAY...BUT
GRADIENTS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE YET. APPEARS THAT THE GUSTS 25 TO
30 KT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON.

SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT...BUT BECOME CHOPPY AT 5 TO 7 FT S OF
NEWPORT IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS DUE TO GUSTY N WINDS. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 251500
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE BRIEF COOL PERIOD WILL END TODAY WITH RAPID
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS NWWD FROM
THE SRN ROCKIES.  CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS IN FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY LEADING TO
FIRST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. LATEST GFS AND
ECM HOLD THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STATIONARY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ALL NEXT WEEK WITH OUR AREA UNDER SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITHIN THIS FLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND ONLY SLIGHT DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE
CHANGES.  NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SMOKE IN VICINITY OF WILDFIRES.
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY
10 TO 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY...STABLE...AND
VIRTUALLY CLOUD FREE. LIGHTER WINDS THAN THURSDAY. WARMING
TREND...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY...
BRINGING ALMOST ALL AREAS BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...TB
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 251500
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE BRIEF COOL PERIOD WILL END TODAY WITH RAPID
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS NWWD FROM
THE SRN ROCKIES.  CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS IN FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY LEADING TO
FIRST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. LATEST GFS AND
ECM HOLD THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STATIONARY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ALL NEXT WEEK WITH OUR AREA UNDER SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITHIN THIS FLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND ONLY SLIGHT DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE
CHANGES.  NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SMOKE IN VICINITY OF WILDFIRES.
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY
10 TO 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY...STABLE...AND
VIRTUALLY CLOUD FREE. LIGHTER WINDS THAN THURSDAY. WARMING
TREND...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY...
BRINGING ALMOST ALL AREAS BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...TB
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS66 KPDT 251453
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
753 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION FROM A DRY FLAT WESTERLY FLOW TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND OF AROUND 4 TO 8
DEGREES TODAY AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 420 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A 4 CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTH AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF IT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY ISOLATED. IF ANY DOES FORM PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT IF ANY. THIS MAY CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL OREGON. WILL BRIEF THE DAY SHIFT
AND FIRE WEATHER SHIFT ON THIS SCENARIO. IN THE MEAN TIME THERE WILL
BE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TODAY TOPPING
OUT IN THE 80S (70S MOUNTAINS)...WARMING TO THE MID 90S (80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS) BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN AROUND 100. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY
MOVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AT TIMES. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW COMBINES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED PARTICULARLY AT LOWER
LEVELS. BASED ON THIS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON.  COONFIELD

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
AND MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NEAR KBDN, KRDM AND KYKM. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE 10
KTS OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KDLS WHERE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTIER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  52  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  83  59  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  87  58  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  83  52  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  85  55  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  82  43  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  79  48  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  81  51  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  84  57  90  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 251453
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
753 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION FROM A DRY FLAT WESTERLY FLOW TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND OF AROUND 4 TO 8
DEGREES TODAY AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 420 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A 4 CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTH AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF IT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY ISOLATED. IF ANY DOES FORM PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT IF ANY. THIS MAY CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL OREGON. WILL BRIEF THE DAY SHIFT
AND FIRE WEATHER SHIFT ON THIS SCENARIO. IN THE MEAN TIME THERE WILL
BE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TODAY TOPPING
OUT IN THE 80S (70S MOUNTAINS)...WARMING TO THE MID 90S (80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS) BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN AROUND 100. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY
MOVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AT TIMES. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW COMBINES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED PARTICULARLY AT LOWER
LEVELS. BASED ON THIS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON.  COONFIELD

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
AND MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NEAR KBDN, KRDM AND KYKM. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE 10
KTS OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KDLS WHERE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTIER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  52  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  83  59  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  87  58  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  83  52  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  85  55  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  82  43  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  79  48  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  81  51  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  84  57  90  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 251453
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
753 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION FROM A DRY FLAT WESTERLY FLOW TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND OF AROUND 4 TO 8
DEGREES TODAY AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 420 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A 4 CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTH AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF IT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY ISOLATED. IF ANY DOES FORM PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT IF ANY. THIS MAY CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL OREGON. WILL BRIEF THE DAY SHIFT
AND FIRE WEATHER SHIFT ON THIS SCENARIO. IN THE MEAN TIME THERE WILL
BE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TODAY TOPPING
OUT IN THE 80S (70S MOUNTAINS)...WARMING TO THE MID 90S (80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS) BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN AROUND 100. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY
MOVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AT TIMES. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW COMBINES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED PARTICULARLY AT LOWER
LEVELS. BASED ON THIS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON.  COONFIELD

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
AND MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NEAR KBDN, KRDM AND KYKM. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE 10
KTS OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KDLS WHERE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTIER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  52  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  83  59  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  87  58  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  83  52  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  85  55  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  82  43  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  79  48  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  81  51  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  84  57  90  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 251453
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
753 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION FROM A DRY FLAT WESTERLY FLOW TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND OF AROUND 4 TO 8
DEGREES TODAY AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 420 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A 4 CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTH AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF IT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY ISOLATED. IF ANY DOES FORM PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT IF ANY. THIS MAY CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL OREGON. WILL BRIEF THE DAY SHIFT
AND FIRE WEATHER SHIFT ON THIS SCENARIO. IN THE MEAN TIME THERE WILL
BE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TODAY TOPPING
OUT IN THE 80S (70S MOUNTAINS)...WARMING TO THE MID 90S (80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS) BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN AROUND 100. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY
MOVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AT TIMES. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW COMBINES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED PARTICULARLY AT LOWER
LEVELS. BASED ON THIS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON.  COONFIELD

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
AND MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NEAR KBDN, KRDM AND KYKM. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE 10
KTS OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KDLS WHERE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTIER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  52  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  83  59  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  87  58  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  83  52  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  85  55  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  81  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  82  43  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  79  48  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  81  51  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  84  57  90  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82









000
FXUS66 KMFR 251223 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
523 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AVIATION MARINE AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SKIES
REMAINING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY RELATES TO
FIRE WEATHER AS GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN SOUTHWEST OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS WITH GUSTS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED. FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, IT WILL BE
EVEN WARMER AND STILL VERY DRY BUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG.

OUR AREA IS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES WHILE
A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
WARMING TREND IS STILL ON TRACK TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALL
WEEK AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES. ANOTHER COUPLE OF CONSISTENT
ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE STRONG NORTHERLY COASTAL WINDS THAT
WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AND THEN
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE WEEK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTABILITY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
IN THE DETAIL OF WHICH DAYS AND WHICH AREAS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LIMITED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT A SHORTWAVE OFFSHORE FROM EUREKA
EARLY ON SUNDAY THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND COULD INITIATE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON SISKIYOUS AND CASCADES.

ON MONDAY, MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SIERRA NEVADA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE HIGHEST EAST OF THE CASCADES.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT ALSO
THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED OCCURRENCE COMPARED TO THE PRECEDING
COUPLE OF DAYS.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BUT, THE GFS STILL INDICATES
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA
THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
THAT FAR INTO THE FUTURE.

FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THE QUESTION BECOMES THE TIMING AT WHICH
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND THE PACIFIC TROUGH BRINGS AN ONSHORE
PUSH WITH COOLER COASTAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER INLAND
TEMPERATURES. MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND HEAT TO CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF NIGHT-TIME CONVECTION DEPENDING UPON THE PRESENCE
OF ANY SHORTWAVES.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/12Z TAFS...

AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG ARE FORMING OVER THE COASTAL VALLEYS
OF NORTHERN CURRY, COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS WELL AS
IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. THESE CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KOTH, BUT WILL
LIKELY STICK AROUND FOR A FEW HOURS AT KRBG. THESE SHOULD BURN
OFF BY MID-LATE MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A BREEZY AFTERNOON OVER THE COAST
RANGES AND THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. A MIX OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS LIKELY
RETURNS TO THE NORTH COAST AND UMPQUA VALLEY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT 25 JULY 2014...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL
OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, BUT MAY NUDGE INTO
THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SPILDE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY, AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY...DOWN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. A THERMAL TROUGH IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWESTERN OREGON WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG TODAY AS IT
WAS YESTERDAY. BUT, STILL THINK WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 20 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS
AND AS SUCH WE HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING AT RFWMFR. IT WILL
ALSO BE VERY DRY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
EAST SIDE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT IN MANY CASES.
BUT IN THOSE AREAS, WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 20 MPH. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ620.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/MAS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 251223 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
523 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AVIATION MARINE AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SKIES
REMAINING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY RELATES TO
FIRE WEATHER AS GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN SOUTHWEST OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS WITH GUSTS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED. FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, IT WILL BE
EVEN WARMER AND STILL VERY DRY BUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG.

OUR AREA IS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES WHILE
A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
WARMING TREND IS STILL ON TRACK TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALL
WEEK AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES. ANOTHER COUPLE OF CONSISTENT
ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE STRONG NORTHERLY COASTAL WINDS THAT
WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AND THEN
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE WEEK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTABILITY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
IN THE DETAIL OF WHICH DAYS AND WHICH AREAS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LIMITED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT A SHORTWAVE OFFSHORE FROM EUREKA
EARLY ON SUNDAY THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND COULD INITIATE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON SISKIYOUS AND CASCADES.

ON MONDAY, MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SIERRA NEVADA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE HIGHEST EAST OF THE CASCADES.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT ALSO
THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED OCCURRENCE COMPARED TO THE PRECEDING
COUPLE OF DAYS.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BUT, THE GFS STILL INDICATES
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA
THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
THAT FAR INTO THE FUTURE.

FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THE QUESTION BECOMES THE TIMING AT WHICH
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND THE PACIFIC TROUGH BRINGS AN ONSHORE
PUSH WITH COOLER COASTAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER INLAND
TEMPERATURES. MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND HEAT TO CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF NIGHT-TIME CONVECTION DEPENDING UPON THE PRESENCE
OF ANY SHORTWAVES.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/12Z TAFS...

AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG ARE FORMING OVER THE COASTAL VALLEYS
OF NORTHERN CURRY, COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS WELL AS
IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. THESE CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KOTH, BUT WILL
LIKELY STICK AROUND FOR A FEW HOURS AT KRBG. THESE SHOULD BURN
OFF BY MID-LATE MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A BREEZY AFTERNOON OVER THE COAST
RANGES AND THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. A MIX OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS LIKELY
RETURNS TO THE NORTH COAST AND UMPQUA VALLEY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT 25 JULY 2014...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL
OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, BUT MAY NUDGE INTO
THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SPILDE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY, AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY...DOWN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. A THERMAL TROUGH IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWESTERN OREGON WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG TODAY AS IT
WAS YESTERDAY. BUT, STILL THINK WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 20 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS
AND AS SUCH WE HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING AT RFWMFR. IT WILL
ALSO BE VERY DRY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
EAST SIDE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT IN MANY CASES.
BUT IN THOSE AREAS, WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 20 MPH. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ620.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/MAS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251132
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
432 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SKIES
REMAINING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY RELATES TO
FIRE WEATHER AS GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN SOUTHWEST OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS WITH GUSTS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED. FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, IT WILL BE EVEN
WARMER AND STILL VERY DRY BUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG.

OUR AREA IS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES WHILE
A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE WARMING
TREND IS STILL ON TRACK TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALL WEEK
AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES. ANOTHER COUPLE OF CONSISTENT ASPECTS OF THE
FORECAST ARE STRONG NORTHERLY COASTAL WINDS THAT WILL BE STRONGEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AND THEN FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE WEEK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTABILITY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAIL OF WHICH DAYS AND WHICH AREAS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LIMITED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT A SHORTWAVE OFFSHORE FROM EUREKA
EARLY ON SUNDAY THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND COULD INITIATE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON SISKIYOUS AND CASCADES.

ON MONDAY, MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SIERRA NEVADA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE HIGHEST EAST OF THE CASCADES.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT ALSO
THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED OCCURRENCE COMPARED TO THE PRECEDING
COUPLE OF DAYS.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BUT, THE GFS STILL INDICATES
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA
THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
THAT FAR INTO THE FUTURE.

FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THE QUESTION BECOMES THE TIMING AT WHICH
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND THE PACIFIC TROUGH BRINGS AN ONSHORE
PUSH WITH COOLER COASTAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER INLAND
TEMPERATURES. MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND HEAT TO CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF NIGHT-TIME CONVECTION DEPENDING UPON THE PRESENCE
OF ANY SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAFS...
PATCHY IFR CEILINGS IN THE COQUILLE AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
UMPQUA VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE BY 18Z, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY
TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT EXCEPT IN THE
BOGGY BOTTOMS ALONG THE COAST AND FROM BANDON TO CAPE BLANCO,
WHERE BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. SUSPECT OFFSHORE
FLOW TO BE TOO STRONG FOR RESTRICTIONS AT NORTH BEND THROUGH THE
MORNING. IT WILL BE BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST RANGE AND OVER THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE. A BRIEF JOG
IN THE FLOW TO ONSHORE FRIDAY EVENING MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME EVENING IFR TO THE BEACHES OF DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES AND
THREATENING NORTH BEND. /BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 25 JULY 2014...

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A THERMAL TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN COAST WILL PERSIST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND
DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INLAND SUNDAY WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENING...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT DECREASE OF WINDS AND WIND WAVES INTO THE EARLY PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST IS THE EXTENT
OF THIS WEAKENING. A MODEL BLEND OF THE DGEX AND THE STRONGER 00Z
GFS WAS UTILIZED. AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO TO POINT
SAINT GEORGE BETWEEN 10 AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE COAST
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND POSSIBLY THE NEXT 10 DAYS. BTL/SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ620.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW






000
FXUS66 KMFR 251132
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
432 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SKIES
REMAINING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY RELATES TO
FIRE WEATHER AS GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN SOUTHWEST OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS WITH GUSTS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED. FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, IT WILL BE EVEN
WARMER AND STILL VERY DRY BUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG.

OUR AREA IS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES WHILE
A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE WARMING
TREND IS STILL ON TRACK TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALL WEEK
AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES. ANOTHER COUPLE OF CONSISTENT ASPECTS OF THE
FORECAST ARE STRONG NORTHERLY COASTAL WINDS THAT WILL BE STRONGEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AND THEN FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE WEEK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTABILITY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAIL OF WHICH DAYS AND WHICH AREAS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LIMITED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT A SHORTWAVE OFFSHORE FROM EUREKA
EARLY ON SUNDAY THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND COULD INITIATE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON SISKIYOUS AND CASCADES.

ON MONDAY, MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SIERRA NEVADA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE HIGHEST EAST OF THE CASCADES.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT ALSO
THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED OCCURRENCE COMPARED TO THE PRECEDING
COUPLE OF DAYS.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BUT, THE GFS STILL INDICATES
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA
THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE TIMING OF THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
THAT FAR INTO THE FUTURE.

FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THE QUESTION BECOMES THE TIMING AT WHICH
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND THE PACIFIC TROUGH BRINGS AN ONSHORE
PUSH WITH COOLER COASTAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER INLAND
TEMPERATURES. MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND HEAT TO CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF NIGHT-TIME CONVECTION DEPENDING UPON THE PRESENCE
OF ANY SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAFS...
PATCHY IFR CEILINGS IN THE COQUILLE AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
UMPQUA VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE BY 18Z, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY
TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT EXCEPT IN THE
BOGGY BOTTOMS ALONG THE COAST AND FROM BANDON TO CAPE BLANCO,
WHERE BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. SUSPECT OFFSHORE
FLOW TO BE TOO STRONG FOR RESTRICTIONS AT NORTH BEND THROUGH THE
MORNING. IT WILL BE BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST RANGE AND OVER THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE. A BRIEF JOG
IN THE FLOW TO ONSHORE FRIDAY EVENING MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME EVENING IFR TO THE BEACHES OF DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES AND
THREATENING NORTH BEND. /BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 25 JULY 2014...

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A THERMAL TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN COAST WILL PERSIST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND
DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INLAND SUNDAY WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENING...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT DECREASE OF WINDS AND WIND WAVES INTO THE EARLY PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST IS THE EXTENT
OF THIS WEAKENING. A MODEL BLEND OF THE DGEX AND THE STRONGER 00Z
GFS WAS UTILIZED. AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO TO POINT
SAINT GEORGE BETWEEN 10 AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE COAST
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND POSSIBLY THE NEXT 10 DAYS. BTL/SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ620.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW







000
FXUS66 KPDT 251120 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
420 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A 4 CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTH AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF IT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY ISOLATED. IF ANY DOES FORM PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT IF ANY. THIS MAY CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL OREGON. WILL BRIEF THE DAY SHIFT
AND FIRE WEATHER SHIFT ON THIS SCENARIO. IN THE MEAN TIME THERE WILL
BE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TODAY TOPPING
OUT IN THE 80S (70S MOUNTAINS)...WARMING TO THE MID 90S (80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS) BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN AROUND 100. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY
MOVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AT TIMES. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW COMBINES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED PARTICULARLY AT LOWER
LEVELS. BASED ON THIS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
AND MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NEAR KBDN, KRDM AND KYKM. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE 10
KTS OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KDLS WHERE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTIER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  55  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  84  61  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  86  57  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  83  55  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  86  56  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  80  50  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  81  46  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  79  50  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  83  53  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  84  59  87  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76







000
FXUS66 KPQR 251102
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
400 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND REMAIN INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES SUN AND AGAIN WED AS A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFT THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDING
FROM OFFSHORE NE INTO WESTERN WA...BRINGING A DRYING NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEPT SOME
CLOUDS IN OVER THE COAST RANGE AND NORTHERN PART OF THE
CASCADES...WITH MARINE CLOUDS LIMITED TO THE N PART OF THE COAST.
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE N PART OF THE AREA...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BREAK
UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR NW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NW ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A PATTERN OF CLOUDS
PUSHING ONTO THE COAST AND INLAND UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA VALLEY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...THEN RETREATING TO THE
COAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS TO WARM SOME TODAY
AND SAT AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND H8 TEMPS CLIMB. UPPER FLOW
EXPECTED TO BACK TOWARDS THE S OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENING INLAND...WITH MODELS AGREEING ON A SHORTWAVE
LIFTING N SUN. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES SUN AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...PUTTING OUR REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST UP THE RIDGE NEAR OUR
REGION.  MOST OF THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MISS OUR AREA...BUT A
CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
-MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS REGION THIS AM...WITH POCKETS OF CIGS 3000
TO 4000 FT OVER COAST RANGE...COASTAL AREAS FROM KTMK NORTHWARD...
AND AGAINST THE CASCADES. ALSO HAVE AREAS OF CIGS 500 TO 1500 ALONG
THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH 17Z. WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT...VFR WILL
DOMINATE OVER MOST AREAS...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP THROUGH 19Z.

PATCHY SHALLOW FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR THIS AM. WITH LOW
TIDES BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM...WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF LOW IFR/FOG
ON COASTAL BAYS DUE TO WARMER MUDS EXPOSED TO COOLER AIR TIL 8 AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY. AREAS OF LOW MVFR TO N AND E OF
KPDX WILL BUILD W AND SW ENOUGH TO BRING CIGS OF 1000 TO 1500 FT
TO KPDX FIELD BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z.                      ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUE. MEANWHILE...THERMAL LOW PRES
OVER NW CALIF WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT. THIS WILL BRING NORTHERLY
WINDS TO COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTY WINDS S OF CASCADE IN
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MAY HAVE FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THAT AREA
TODAY...BUT GRADIENTS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE YET. APPEARS THAT
THE GUSTS OT 25 TO 30 KT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON.

SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT...BUT BECOME CHOPPY AT 5 TO 7 FT S OF
NEWPORT IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS DUE TO GUSTY N WINDS. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 6 AM TODAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 250909
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
309 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY...STABLE...AND
VIRTUALLY CLOUD FREE. LIGHTER WINDS THAN THURSDAY. WARMING
TREND...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING ALMOST ALL AREAS BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SMOKE IN VICINITY OF
WILDFIRES.  WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE WESTERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...TB
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 250909
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
309 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY...STABLE...AND
VIRTUALLY CLOUD FREE. LIGHTER WINDS THAN THURSDAY. WARMING
TREND...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING ALMOST ALL AREAS BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SMOKE IN VICINITY OF
WILDFIRES.  WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE WESTERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...TB
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS66 KPQR 250905
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
205 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND REMAIN INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES SUN AND AGAIN WED AS A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFT THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDING
FROM OFFSHORE NE INTO WESTERN WA...BRINGING A DRYING NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEPT SOME
CLOUDS IN OVER THE COAST RANGE AND NORTHERN PART OF THE
CASCADES...WITH MARINE CLOUDS LIMITED TO THE N PART OF THE COAST.
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE N PART OF THE AREA...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BREAK
UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR NW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NW ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A PATTERN OF CLOUDS
PUSHING ONTO THE COAST AND INLAND UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA VALLEY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...THEN RETREATING TO THE
COAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS TO WARM SOME TODAY
AND SAT AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND H8 TEMPS CLIMB. UPPER FLOW
EXPECTED TO BACK TOWARDS THE S OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENING INLAND...WITH MODELS AGREEING ON A SHORTWAVE
LIFTING N SUN. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES SUN AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...PUTTING OUR REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST UP THE RIDGE NEAR OUR
REGION.  MOST OF THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MISS OUR AREA...BUT A
CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
-MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS REGION THIS AM...WITH POCKETS OF CIGS 4000
TO 4500 FT OVER COAST RANGE...COASTAL AREAS FROM KTMK NORTHWARD...
AND AGAINST THE CASCADES. WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT...SO WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATES TODAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP THROUGH 19Z.

PATCHY SHALLOW FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR THIS AM...BUT NOT
LIKELY TO AFFECT INLAND TAFS. WITH LOW TIDES AT 5 TO 6 AM...HAVE
BETTER THREAT OF BRIEF FOG ON COASTAL BAYS DUE TO WARMER MUDS
EXPOSED TO COOLER AIR UNTIL 7 OR 8 AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY. WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AT 4000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE NO ADVERSE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.                            ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUE. MEANWHILE...THERMAL LOW PRES
OVER NW CALIF WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT. THIS WILL BRING NORTHERLY
WINDS TO COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTY WINDS S OF CASCADE IN
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MAY HAVE FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THAT AREA
TODAY...BUT GRADIENTS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE YET. APPEARS THAT
THE GUSTS OT 25 TO 30 KT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON.

SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT...BUT BECOME CHOPPY AT 5 TO 7 FT S OF
NEWPORT IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS DUE TO GUSTY N WINDS. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 6 AM TODAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250905
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
205 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND REMAIN INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES SUN AND AGAIN WED AS A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFT THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDING
FROM OFFSHORE NE INTO WESTERN WA...BRINGING A DRYING NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEPT SOME
CLOUDS IN OVER THE COAST RANGE AND NORTHERN PART OF THE
CASCADES...WITH MARINE CLOUDS LIMITED TO THE N PART OF THE COAST.
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE N PART OF THE AREA...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BREAK
UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR NW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NW ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A PATTERN OF CLOUDS
PUSHING ONTO THE COAST AND INLAND UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA VALLEY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...THEN RETREATING TO THE
COAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS TO WARM SOME TODAY
AND SAT AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND H8 TEMPS CLIMB. UPPER FLOW
EXPECTED TO BACK TOWARDS THE S OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENING INLAND...WITH MODELS AGREEING ON A SHORTWAVE
LIFTING N SUN. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES SUN AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...PUTTING OUR REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST UP THE RIDGE NEAR OUR
REGION.  MOST OF THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MISS OUR AREA...BUT A
CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
-MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS REGION THIS AM...WITH POCKETS OF CIGS 4000
TO 4500 FT OVER COAST RANGE...COASTAL AREAS FROM KTMK NORTHWARD...
AND AGAINST THE CASCADES. WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT...SO WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATES TODAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP THROUGH 19Z.

PATCHY SHALLOW FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR THIS AM...BUT NOT
LIKELY TO AFFECT INLAND TAFS. WITH LOW TIDES AT 5 TO 6 AM...HAVE
BETTER THREAT OF BRIEF FOG ON COASTAL BAYS DUE TO WARMER MUDS
EXPOSED TO COOLER AIR UNTIL 7 OR 8 AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY. WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AT 4000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE NO ADVERSE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.                            ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUE. MEANWHILE...THERMAL LOW PRES
OVER NW CALIF WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT. THIS WILL BRING NORTHERLY
WINDS TO COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTY WINDS S OF CASCADE IN
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MAY HAVE FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THAT AREA
TODAY...BUT GRADIENTS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE YET. APPEARS THAT
THE GUSTS OT 25 TO 30 KT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON.

SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT...BUT BECOME CHOPPY AT 5 TO 7 FT S OF
NEWPORT IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS DUE TO GUSTY N WINDS. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 6 AM TODAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250905
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
205 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND REMAIN INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES SUN AND AGAIN WED AS A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFT THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDING
FROM OFFSHORE NE INTO WESTERN WA...BRINGING A DRYING NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEPT SOME
CLOUDS IN OVER THE COAST RANGE AND NORTHERN PART OF THE
CASCADES...WITH MARINE CLOUDS LIMITED TO THE N PART OF THE COAST.
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE N PART OF THE AREA...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BREAK
UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR NW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NW ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A PATTERN OF CLOUDS
PUSHING ONTO THE COAST AND INLAND UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA VALLEY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...THEN RETREATING TO THE
COAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS TO WARM SOME TODAY
AND SAT AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND H8 TEMPS CLIMB. UPPER FLOW
EXPECTED TO BACK TOWARDS THE S OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENING INLAND...WITH MODELS AGREEING ON A SHORTWAVE
LIFTING N SUN. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES SUN AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...PUTTING OUR REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST UP THE RIDGE NEAR OUR
REGION.  MOST OF THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MISS OUR AREA...BUT A
CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
-MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS REGION THIS AM...WITH POCKETS OF CIGS 4000
TO 4500 FT OVER COAST RANGE...COASTAL AREAS FROM KTMK NORTHWARD...
AND AGAINST THE CASCADES. WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT...SO WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATES TODAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP THROUGH 19Z.

PATCHY SHALLOW FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR THIS AM...BUT NOT
LIKELY TO AFFECT INLAND TAFS. WITH LOW TIDES AT 5 TO 6 AM...HAVE
BETTER THREAT OF BRIEF FOG ON COASTAL BAYS DUE TO WARMER MUDS
EXPOSED TO COOLER AIR UNTIL 7 OR 8 AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY. WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AT 4000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE NO ADVERSE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.                            ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUE. MEANWHILE...THERMAL LOW PRES
OVER NW CALIF WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT. THIS WILL BRING NORTHERLY
WINDS TO COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTY WINDS S OF CASCADE IN
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MAY HAVE FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THAT AREA
TODAY...BUT GRADIENTS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE YET. APPEARS THAT
THE GUSTS OT 25 TO 30 KT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON.

SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT...BUT BECOME CHOPPY AT 5 TO 7 FT S OF
NEWPORT IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS DUE TO GUSTY N WINDS. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 6 AM TODAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250905
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
205 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND REMAIN INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES SUN AND AGAIN WED AS A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFT THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDING
FROM OFFSHORE NE INTO WESTERN WA...BRINGING A DRYING NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEPT SOME
CLOUDS IN OVER THE COAST RANGE AND NORTHERN PART OF THE
CASCADES...WITH MARINE CLOUDS LIMITED TO THE N PART OF THE COAST.
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE N PART OF THE AREA...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BREAK
UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR NW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NW ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A PATTERN OF CLOUDS
PUSHING ONTO THE COAST AND INLAND UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA VALLEY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...THEN RETREATING TO THE
COAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS TO WARM SOME TODAY
AND SAT AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND H8 TEMPS CLIMB. UPPER FLOW
EXPECTED TO BACK TOWARDS THE S OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENING INLAND...WITH MODELS AGREEING ON A SHORTWAVE
LIFTING N SUN. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES SUN AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...PUTTING OUR REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST UP THE RIDGE NEAR OUR
REGION.  MOST OF THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MISS OUR AREA...BUT A
CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
-MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS REGION THIS AM...WITH POCKETS OF CIGS 4000
TO 4500 FT OVER COAST RANGE...COASTAL AREAS FROM KTMK NORTHWARD...
AND AGAINST THE CASCADES. WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT...SO WILL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATES TODAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP THROUGH 19Z.

PATCHY SHALLOW FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR THIS AM...BUT NOT
LIKELY TO AFFECT INLAND TAFS. WITH LOW TIDES AT 5 TO 6 AM...HAVE
BETTER THREAT OF BRIEF FOG ON COASTAL BAYS DUE TO WARMER MUDS
EXPOSED TO COOLER AIR UNTIL 7 OR 8 AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY. WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AT 4000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. OTHERWISE NO ADVERSE
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.                            ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUE. MEANWHILE...THERMAL LOW PRES
OVER NW CALIF WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT. THIS WILL BRING NORTHERLY
WINDS TO COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTY WINDS S OF CASCADE IN
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MAY HAVE FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THAT AREA
TODAY...BUT GRADIENTS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE YET. APPEARS THAT
THE GUSTS OT 25 TO 30 KT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON.

SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT...BUT BECOME CHOPPY AT 5 TO 7 FT S OF
NEWPORT IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS DUE TO GUSTY N WINDS. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 6 AM TODAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 250855
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
155 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A 4 CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTH AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF IT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY ISOLATED. IF ANY DOES FORM PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT IF ANY. THIS MAY CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL OREGON. WILL BRIEF THE DAY SHIFT
AND FIRE WEATHER SHIFT ON THIS SCENARIO. IN THE MEAN TIME THERE WILL
BE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TODAY TOPPING
OUT IN THE 80S (70S MOUNTAINS)...WARMING TO THE MID 90S (80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS) BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN AROUND 100. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY
MOVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AT TIMES. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW COMBINES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED PARTICULARLY AT LOWER
LEVELS. BASED ON THIS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...INCREASINGLY DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NEAR KBDN, KRDM AND KYKM. WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KDLS WHERE
WINDS WILL BE GUSTIER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FRIDAY.
90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  55  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  84  61  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  86  57  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  83  55  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  86  56  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  80  50  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  81  46  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  79  50  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  83  53  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  84  59  87  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/76/76









000
FXUS66 KPDT 250529 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1029 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...UPDATE...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCREASINGLY DRY
WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES GRADUALLY DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS MAINLY NEAR THE CREST BY DAYBREAK. LOCALLY
BREEZY WINDS ARE DECREASING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT TO BE
IN PORTIONS OF THE KITTITAS VALLEY (THESE BEING 10-15 MPH BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS). OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE AT OR A BIT
COOLER THAN SEASONAL DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, LIGHTENING WINDS AND A
DRIER AIR MASS. UPDATES THIS EVENING INVOLVED ADJUSTING WINDS, LOW
TEMPS AND SKY COVER. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING HOT WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN GETTING NEAR 100. ASIDE FROM THE
HEAT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THIS HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...INCREASINGLY DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NEAR KBDN, KRDM AND KYKM. WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KDLS WHERE
WINDS WILL BE GUSTIER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FRIDAY.
90

&&

.FIRE WX...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL OREGON AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL MOVE
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ON MONDAY FOR A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  55  84  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  53  87  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  51  85  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  50  87  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  50  80  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  38  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  44  77  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  46  80  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  56  84  59  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/94/90/84








000
FXUS66 KMFR 250521
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1021 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE NEEDED TONIGHT, AS THE FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK UNDER
ALMOST COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES.

IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT AGAIN, THOUGH SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING`S RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOW VALUES. KLAMATH FALLS
BROKE A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING AT 35F. THIS SURPASSED THE OLD
RECORD OF 38F, SET IN 1993. IN MEDFORD IT WAS 48F THIS MORNING,
WHICH JUST A DEGREE SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 47F ALSO FROM 1993.

TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR, WITH HIGHS OF 85F TO 95F AT MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS
UNDER STELLAR CLEAR SKIES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAFS...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS
TONIGHT EXCEPT IN THE BOGGY BOTTOMS ALONG THE COAST AND FROM BANDON
TO CAPE BLANCO, WHERE BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.
SUSPECT OFFSHORE FLOW TO BE TOO STRONG FOR RESTRICTIONS AT NORTH
BEND THROUGH THE MORNING. IT WILL BE BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE AND OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
SIDE. A BRIEF JOG IN THE FLOW TO ONSHORE FRIDAY EVENING MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO BRING SOME EVENING IFR TO THE BEACHES OF DOUGLAS AND COOS
COUNTIES AND THREATENING NORTH BEND. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT 24 JULY 2014...

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND, LIKELY, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND SUNDAY
WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENING...RESULTING IN DECREASED WINDS AND
WIND WAVES INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FORECAST IS THE EXTENT OF THIS WEAKENING. A MODEL BLEND OF
THE DGEX AND THE STRONGER 00Z GFS WAS UTILIZED. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE IN THE WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO TO POINT SAINT GEORGE BETWEEN 10
AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 TO
POSSIBLY EVEN 10 DAYS. BTL/SVEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER AREAS OF CONCERN HAVE TRANSITIONED FROM
THUNDERSTORMS TO WINDS AND HUMIDITY...AND THEN WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (AND POSSIBLY LONGER).

A THERMAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AND
WILL BE GENERATING GUSTY NORTH WINDS WEST OF THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS...THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
THE RIDGES OF THE COAST RANGE IN CURRY COUNTY AND OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY HIGH TERRAIN. RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY TREND FROM
GOOD TO MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY POOR IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS. EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS IN THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE
VALLEYS...IN ADDITION TO LOWERING HUMIDITIES...WARRANTED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AT RFWMFR FROM 1PM-8PM TOMORROW. WE ARE CONFIDENT
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT HUMIDITIES ARE
MORE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND MODEL TENDENCIES TO
FORECAST DEWPOINTS TOO HIGH AND TEMPERATURES TOO LOW IN THESE
MODERATE-STRONG THERMAL TROUGH PATTERNS. HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE A BIT
TOO HIGH FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY...BUT THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT OCCURS TODAY AND USE THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FOR THEIR DECISIONS.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST OF
THE CASCADES THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN...FOR SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS...IN COMBINATION
WITH HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRY END OF THE
SPECTRUM...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WEST OF A
NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BTL/NSK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE BIG TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US THE COOL, SHOWERY
WEATHER IS NOW WELL OFF INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING US WITH DRY ZONAL UPPER FLOW.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND
LOWERING PRESSURES INDICATE THAT A THERMAL TROUGH IS ALREADY
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF INCREASING GRADIENTS, AND THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUD REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST UMPQUA COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA IS CLEAR.

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE BASIC SURFACE PATTERN (COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH) WILL
REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL, WHICH MEANS
GUSTY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST AND
WATERS, AND HOT CONDITIONS INLAND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY. HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

WE WILL BE DRY AND CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO WE WILL JUST HAVE
TO WATCH FOR SOME TRIGGERING MECHANISM TO PINPOINT THE MOST LIKELY
PERIODS. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N 133W RIGHT NOW
AND ALL THE MODELS BRING THIS ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO OUR
AREA SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ASSOCIATED JET SUPPORT ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS EAST. WHILE THE WEST
SIDE WILL BE VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE, MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION IN THE MID LEVELS, SO STORMS
WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED WEST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY.

AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS GRADUALLY GROW MORE
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AND THUS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY,
BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE JET SUPPORT AND NOT A LOT OF MODEL
AGREEMENT AS TO THE PARTICULARS. NEVERTHELESS, IT SHOULD NOTED
THAT IF WE DO GET A GOOD TRIGGER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, IT COULD
PRODUCE QUITE A LOT OF CONVECTION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ620.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY
  FOR PZZ356-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY
  FOR PZZ350-370.
- GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/TRW/NSK/SVEN









000
FXUS66 KMFR 250521
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1021 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE NEEDED TONIGHT, AS THE FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK UNDER
ALMOST COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES.

IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT AGAIN, THOUGH SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING`S RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOW VALUES. KLAMATH FALLS
BROKE A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING AT 35F. THIS SURPASSED THE OLD
RECORD OF 38F, SET IN 1993. IN MEDFORD IT WAS 48F THIS MORNING,
WHICH JUST A DEGREE SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 47F ALSO FROM 1993.

TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR, WITH HIGHS OF 85F TO 95F AT MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS
UNDER STELLAR CLEAR SKIES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAFS...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS
TONIGHT EXCEPT IN THE BOGGY BOTTOMS ALONG THE COAST AND FROM BANDON
TO CAPE BLANCO, WHERE BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.
SUSPECT OFFSHORE FLOW TO BE TOO STRONG FOR RESTRICTIONS AT NORTH
BEND THROUGH THE MORNING. IT WILL BE BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE AND OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
SIDE. A BRIEF JOG IN THE FLOW TO ONSHORE FRIDAY EVENING MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO BRING SOME EVENING IFR TO THE BEACHES OF DOUGLAS AND COOS
COUNTIES AND THREATENING NORTH BEND. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT 24 JULY 2014...

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND, LIKELY, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND SUNDAY
WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENING...RESULTING IN DECREASED WINDS AND
WIND WAVES INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FORECAST IS THE EXTENT OF THIS WEAKENING. A MODEL BLEND OF
THE DGEX AND THE STRONGER 00Z GFS WAS UTILIZED. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE IN THE WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO TO POINT SAINT GEORGE BETWEEN 10
AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 TO
POSSIBLY EVEN 10 DAYS. BTL/SVEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER AREAS OF CONCERN HAVE TRANSITIONED FROM
THUNDERSTORMS TO WINDS AND HUMIDITY...AND THEN WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (AND POSSIBLY LONGER).

A THERMAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AND
WILL BE GENERATING GUSTY NORTH WINDS WEST OF THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS...THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
THE RIDGES OF THE COAST RANGE IN CURRY COUNTY AND OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY HIGH TERRAIN. RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY TREND FROM
GOOD TO MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY POOR IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS. EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS IN THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE
VALLEYS...IN ADDITION TO LOWERING HUMIDITIES...WARRANTED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AT RFWMFR FROM 1PM-8PM TOMORROW. WE ARE CONFIDENT
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT HUMIDITIES ARE
MORE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND MODEL TENDENCIES TO
FORECAST DEWPOINTS TOO HIGH AND TEMPERATURES TOO LOW IN THESE
MODERATE-STRONG THERMAL TROUGH PATTERNS. HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE A BIT
TOO HIGH FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY...BUT THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT OCCURS TODAY AND USE THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FOR THEIR DECISIONS.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST OF
THE CASCADES THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN...FOR SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS...IN COMBINATION
WITH HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRY END OF THE
SPECTRUM...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WEST OF A
NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BTL/NSK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE BIG TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US THE COOL, SHOWERY
WEATHER IS NOW WELL OFF INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING US WITH DRY ZONAL UPPER FLOW.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND
LOWERING PRESSURES INDICATE THAT A THERMAL TROUGH IS ALREADY
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF INCREASING GRADIENTS, AND THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUD REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST UMPQUA COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA IS CLEAR.

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE BASIC SURFACE PATTERN (COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH) WILL
REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL, WHICH MEANS
GUSTY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST AND
WATERS, AND HOT CONDITIONS INLAND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY. HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

WE WILL BE DRY AND CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO WE WILL JUST HAVE
TO WATCH FOR SOME TRIGGERING MECHANISM TO PINPOINT THE MOST LIKELY
PERIODS. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N 133W RIGHT NOW
AND ALL THE MODELS BRING THIS ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO OUR
AREA SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ASSOCIATED JET SUPPORT ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS EAST. WHILE THE WEST
SIDE WILL BE VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE, MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION IN THE MID LEVELS, SO STORMS
WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED WEST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY.

AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS GRADUALLY GROW MORE
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AND THUS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY,
BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE JET SUPPORT AND NOT A LOT OF MODEL
AGREEMENT AS TO THE PARTICULARS. NEVERTHELESS, IT SHOULD NOTED
THAT IF WE DO GET A GOOD TRIGGER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, IT COULD
PRODUCE QUITE A LOT OF CONVECTION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ620.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY
  FOR PZZ356-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY
  FOR PZZ350-370.
- GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/TRW/NSK/SVEN










000
FXUS66 KPDT 250416
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
916 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPDATE...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER AN INCREASINGLY DRY
WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS
ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES GRADUALLY DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS MAINLY NEAR THE CREST BY DAYBREAK. LOCALLY
BREEZY WINDS ARE DECREASING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT TO BE
IN PORTIONS OF THE KITTITAS VALLEY (THESE BEING 10-15 MPH BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS). OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE AT OR A BIT
COOLER THAN SEASONAL DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, LIGHTENING WINDS AND A
DRIER AIR MASS. UPDATES THIS EVENING INVOLVED ADJUSTING WINDS, LOW
TEMPS AND SKY COVER. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING HOT WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN GETTING NEAR 100. ASIDE FROM THE
HEAT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THIS HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS. SCT 050-080 THROUGH
SUNSET THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WESTERLY WINDS 10-25KT
THROUGH EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY
WINDS 5-15KT FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WX...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL OREGON AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL MOVE
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ON MONDAY FOR A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  84  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  55  84  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  53  87  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  51  85  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  50  87  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  50  80  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  38  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  44  77  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  46  80  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  56  84  59  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/94/90/84








000
FXUS66 KPQR 250409
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT ABUNDANT RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS MOVED
WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BUT
DECREASING SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN ITS WAKE...WITH MORE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL WARMING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER
THE NORTHWEST U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. MARINE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BRUSHING THE OREGON
CASCADE CREST AT TIMES.
&&

.UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TONIGHT`S SKY COVER WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CLIPPING SW WASHINGTON FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS AND LIFTS THIS DISTURBANCE NORTHWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERAL DRYING AND WARMING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE LOW THAT HAD PLAGUED
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH
COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES IN WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN ITS WAKE IN THE
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING MAINLY
TILLAMOOK TO VANCOUVER NORTHWARD...BUT THESE SHOULD DECREASE EARLY
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A LOT OF CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...AND PLENTY UPSTREAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC THAT WILL ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I THINK THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MUCH CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL BE SOUTH LANE
COUNTY...BUT SOME CLOUDS MAY FILTER IN OVERNIGHT DOWN THERE AS WELL.

THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH IF ANY UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT...
WITH THE UPPER FLOW EVEN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AT 12Z FRIDAY. THUS EXPECT
FAIRLY DECENT LOW CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AROUND
50N/130W THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY BE THE FEATURE DEVELOPING SOME
PATCHY QPF ALONG THE NORTH COAST FORECAST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY...AND IS
ALSO PROBABLY PART OF WHY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE RATHER SOLID TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SO WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE IN FOR
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NEAR THE NORTH COAST AND COASTAL
MOUNTAINS.

500 MB HEIGHTS DO BEGIN TO BUILD A BIT FRIDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPS INLAND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. CLOUDS ON THE
NORTH COAST MAY AGAIN TEND TO HANG ON FOR A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT CAUSES THE PATCHY LIGHT MORNING
PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 580S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INLAND TEMPS INTO
THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE ON SUNDAY... EXCEPT
TEMPS INLAND MAY GET CLOSER TO 90. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE
LIFTING UP INTO CENTRAL OREGON FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY THAT
MIGHT BRUSH OUR OREGON CASCADE CREST AREA WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...PUTTING OUR REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST UP THE RIDGE NEAR OUR
REGION.  MOST OF THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MISS OUR AREA...BUT A
CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
-MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AT KAST WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DOMINATE FROM 09Z TO 18Z FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT
CHANCE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AROUND KONP FOR A COUPLE
HOURS NEAR 12Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW THAT MVFR
CONDITIONS APPROACHING KAST WILL MAKE THEIR WAY UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TO KPDX AND KTTD BY DAYBREAK.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FRIDAY SO PUT A TEMPO
IN THE TAF TO COVER THIS IDEA FOR NOW. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE COMING DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF NEWPORT. THERE IS A CHANCE WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT WILL
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SUSPECT THIS MODEL
WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT PERHAPS A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...EVEN FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO 6
     AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 250409
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT ABUNDANT RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS MOVED
WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BUT
DECREASING SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN ITS WAKE...WITH MORE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL WARMING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER
THE NORTHWEST U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH 500 MB HEIGHTS. MARINE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BRUSHING THE OREGON
CASCADE CREST AT TIMES.
&&

.UPDATE...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TONIGHT`S SKY COVER WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CLIPPING SW WASHINGTON FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS AND LIFTS THIS DISTURBANCE NORTHWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERAL DRYING AND WARMING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE LOW THAT HAD PLAGUED
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH
COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES IN WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN ITS WAKE IN THE
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING MAINLY
TILLAMOOK TO VANCOUVER NORTHWARD...BUT THESE SHOULD DECREASE EARLY
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A LOT OF CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...AND PLENTY UPSTREAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC THAT WILL ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I THINK THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MUCH CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL BE SOUTH LANE
COUNTY...BUT SOME CLOUDS MAY FILTER IN OVERNIGHT DOWN THERE AS WELL.

THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH IF ANY UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT...
WITH THE UPPER FLOW EVEN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AT 12Z FRIDAY. THUS EXPECT
FAIRLY DECENT LOW CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AROUND
50N/130W THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY BE THE FEATURE DEVELOPING SOME
PATCHY QPF ALONG THE NORTH COAST FORECAST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY...AND IS
ALSO PROBABLY PART OF WHY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE RATHER SOLID TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SO WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE IN FOR
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NEAR THE NORTH COAST AND COASTAL
MOUNTAINS.

500 MB HEIGHTS DO BEGIN TO BUILD A BIT FRIDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPS INLAND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. CLOUDS ON THE
NORTH COAST MAY AGAIN TEND TO HANG ON FOR A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT CAUSES THE PATCHY LIGHT MORNING
PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 580S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INLAND TEMPS INTO
THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE ON SUNDAY... EXCEPT
TEMPS INLAND MAY GET CLOSER TO 90. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE
LIFTING UP INTO CENTRAL OREGON FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY THAT
MIGHT BRUSH OUR OREGON CASCADE CREST AREA WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...PUTTING OUR REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST UP THE RIDGE NEAR OUR
REGION.  MOST OF THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MISS OUR AREA...BUT A
CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
-MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AT KAST WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DOMINATE FROM 09Z TO 18Z FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT
CHANCE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AROUND KONP FOR A COUPLE
HOURS NEAR 12Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW THAT MVFR
CONDITIONS APPROACHING KAST WILL MAKE THEIR WAY UP THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TO KPDX AND KTTD BY DAYBREAK.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FRIDAY SO PUT A TEMPO
IN THE TAF TO COVER THIS IDEA FOR NOW. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE COMING DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF NEWPORT. THERE IS A CHANCE WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT WILL
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SUSPECT THIS MODEL
WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT PERHAPS A SMALL CRAFT WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON INNER WATERS. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...EVEN FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO 6
     AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 250400
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
900 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE NEEDED TONIGHT, AS THE FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK UNDER
ALMOST COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES.

IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT AGAIN, THOUGH SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING`S RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOW VALUES. KLAMATH FALLS
BROKE A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING AT 35F. THIS SURPASSED THE OLD
RECORD OF 38F, SET IN 1993. IN MEDFORD IT WAS 48F THIS MORNING,
WHICH JUST A DEGREE SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 47F ALSO FROM 1993.

TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR, WITH HIGHS OF 85F TO 95F AT MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS
UNDER STELLAR CLEAR SKIES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/00Z TAFS...

WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENING ON THE COAST OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES TO THE COAST. THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR/IFR STRATUS...POSSIBLY REACHING
INLAND TO OTH EARLY MORNING. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO IS EXPECTED TO
SEE CLEARING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WINDS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE. /SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT 24 JULY 2014...

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND, LIKELY, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND SUNDAY
WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENING...RESULTING IN DECREASED WINDS AND
WIND WAVES INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FORECAST IS THE EXTENT OF THIS WEAKENING. A MODEL BLEND OF
THE DGEX AND THE STRONGER 00Z GFS WAS UTILIZED. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE IN THE WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO TO POINT SAINT GEORGE BETWEEN 10
AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 TO
POSSIBLY EVEN 10 DAYS. BTL/SVEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER AREAS OF CONCERN HAVE TRANSITIONED FROM
THUNDERSTORMS TO WINDS AND HUMIDITY...AND THEN WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (AND POSSIBLY LONGER).

A THERMAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AND
WILL BE GENERATING GUSTY NORTH WINDS WEST OF THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS...THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
THE RIDGES OF THE COAST RANGE IN CURRY COUNTY AND OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY HIGH TERRAIN. RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY TREND FROM
GOOD TO MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY POOR IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS. EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS IN THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE
VALLEYS...IN ADDITION TO LOWERING HUMIDITIES...WARRANTED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AT RFWMFR FROM 1PM-8PM TOMORROW. WE ARE CONFIDENT
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT HUMIDITIES ARE
MORE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND MODEL TENDENCIES TO
FORECAST DEWPOINTS TOO HIGH AND TEMPERATURES TOO LOW IN THESE
MODERATE-STRONG THERMAL TROUGH PATTERNS. HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE A BIT
TOO HIGH FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY...BUT THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT OCCURS TODAY AND USE THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FOR THEIR DECISIONS.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST OF
THE CASCADES THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN...FOR SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS...IN COMBINATION
WITH HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRY END OF THE
SPECTRUM...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WEST OF A
NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BTL/NSK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE BIG TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US THE COOL, SHOWERY
WEATHER IS NOW WELL OFF INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING US WITH DRY ZONAL UPPER FLOW.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND
LOWERING PRESSURES INDICATE THAT A THERMAL TROUGH IS ALREADY
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF INCREASING GRADIENTS, AND THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUD REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST UMPQUA COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA IS CLEAR.

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE BASIC SURFACE PATTERN (COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH) WILL
REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL, WHICH MEANS
GUSTY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST AND
WATERS, AND HOT CONDITIONS INLAND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY. HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

WE WILL BE DRY AND CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO WE WILL JUST HAVE
TO WATCH FOR SOME TRIGGERING MECHANISM TO PINPOINT THE MOST LIKELY
PERIODS. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N 133W RIGHT NOW
AND ALL THE MODELS BRING THIS ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO OUR
AREA SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ASSOCIATED JET SUPPORT ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS EAST. WHILE THE WEST
SIDE WILL BE VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE, MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION IN THE MID LEVELS, SO STORMS
WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED WEST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY.

AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS GRADUALLY GROW MORE
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AND THUS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY,
BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE JET SUPPORT AND NOT A LOT OF MODEL
AGREEMENT AS TO THE PARTICULARS. NEVERTHELESS, IT SHOULD NOTED
THAT IF WE DO GET A GOOD TRIGGER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, IT COULD
PRODUCE QUITE A LOT OF CONVECTION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ620.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY
  FOR PZZ356-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY
  FOR PZZ350-370.
- GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/TRW/NSK/SVEN







000
FXUS66 KMFR 250400
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
900 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE NEEDED TONIGHT, AS THE FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK UNDER
ALMOST COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES.

IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT AGAIN, THOUGH SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING`S RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOW VALUES. KLAMATH FALLS
BROKE A RECORD LOW THIS MORNING AT 35F. THIS SURPASSED THE OLD
RECORD OF 38F, SET IN 1993. IN MEDFORD IT WAS 48F THIS MORNING,
WHICH JUST A DEGREE SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 47F ALSO FROM 1993.

TOMORROW`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR, WITH HIGHS OF 85F TO 95F AT MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS
UNDER STELLAR CLEAR SKIES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/00Z TAFS...

WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENING ON THE COAST OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES TO THE COAST. THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR/IFR STRATUS...POSSIBLY REACHING
INLAND TO OTH EARLY MORNING. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO IS EXPECTED TO
SEE CLEARING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WINDS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE. /SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT 24 JULY 2014...

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND, LIKELY, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND SUNDAY
WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENING...RESULTING IN DECREASED WINDS AND
WIND WAVES INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FORECAST IS THE EXTENT OF THIS WEAKENING. A MODEL BLEND OF
THE DGEX AND THE STRONGER 00Z GFS WAS UTILIZED. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE IN THE WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO TO POINT SAINT GEORGE BETWEEN 10
AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 TO
POSSIBLY EVEN 10 DAYS. BTL/SVEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER AREAS OF CONCERN HAVE TRANSITIONED FROM
THUNDERSTORMS TO WINDS AND HUMIDITY...AND THEN WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (AND POSSIBLY LONGER).

A THERMAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AND
WILL BE GENERATING GUSTY NORTH WINDS WEST OF THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS...THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
THE RIDGES OF THE COAST RANGE IN CURRY COUNTY AND OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY HIGH TERRAIN. RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY TREND FROM
GOOD TO MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY POOR IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS. EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS IN THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE
VALLEYS...IN ADDITION TO LOWERING HUMIDITIES...WARRANTED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AT RFWMFR FROM 1PM-8PM TOMORROW. WE ARE CONFIDENT
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT HUMIDITIES ARE
MORE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND MODEL TENDENCIES TO
FORECAST DEWPOINTS TOO HIGH AND TEMPERATURES TOO LOW IN THESE
MODERATE-STRONG THERMAL TROUGH PATTERNS. HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE A BIT
TOO HIGH FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY...BUT THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT OCCURS TODAY AND USE THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FOR THEIR DECISIONS.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST OF
THE CASCADES THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN...FOR SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN
REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS...IN COMBINATION
WITH HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRY END OF THE
SPECTRUM...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WEST OF A
NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BTL/NSK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE BIG TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US THE COOL, SHOWERY
WEATHER IS NOW WELL OFF INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING US WITH DRY ZONAL UPPER FLOW.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND
LOWERING PRESSURES INDICATE THAT A THERMAL TROUGH IS ALREADY
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF INCREASING GRADIENTS, AND THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUD REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST UMPQUA COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA IS CLEAR.

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE BASIC SURFACE PATTERN (COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH) WILL
REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL, WHICH MEANS
GUSTY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST AND
WATERS, AND HOT CONDITIONS INLAND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY. HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

WE WILL BE DRY AND CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO WE WILL JUST HAVE
TO WATCH FOR SOME TRIGGERING MECHANISM TO PINPOINT THE MOST LIKELY
PERIODS. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N 133W RIGHT NOW
AND ALL THE MODELS BRING THIS ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO OUR
AREA SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ASSOCIATED JET SUPPORT ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS EAST. WHILE THE WEST
SIDE WILL BE VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE, MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION IN THE MID LEVELS, SO STORMS
WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED WEST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY.

AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS GRADUALLY GROW MORE
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AND THUS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY,
BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE JET SUPPORT AND NOT A LOT OF MODEL
AGREEMENT AS TO THE PARTICULARS. NEVERTHELESS, IT SHOULD NOTED
THAT IF WE DO GET A GOOD TRIGGER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, IT COULD
PRODUCE QUITE A LOT OF CONVECTION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ620.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY
  FOR PZZ356-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PDT MONDAY
  FOR PZZ350-370.
- GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/TRW/NSK/SVEN






000
FXUS65 KBOI 250236
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
836 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...AIR MASS HAS DRIED AND STABILIZED CONSIDERABLY...AS
THE BOISE SOUNDING PWAT WENT FROM 0.83 INCHES AT 00Z YESTERDAY...
TO 0.19 INCHES AT 00Z TODAY. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO WARM FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE THE START OF A
WARMING TREND AS TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY. FORECAST IS
ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BECOMING 12KT
OR LESS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ALOFT UP THRU 10K FEET MSL...WEST
10-20KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UNUSUALLY COOL WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SWRN CANADA.  WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS AND MAIN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS NWWD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO OUR AREA....MAX TEMPS RISING ABOUT 8F
PER DAY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MIN TEMPS WILL LAG...WITH TONIGHT
THE COOLEST NIGHT IN IDAHO AND ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT IN
OREGON...THEN ABOUT 5F WARMER EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
LOCALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BY SUNSET THEN LIGHT DIURNAL
WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.  ZERO POPS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY...AND THEN STAY
RELATIVELY CONSTANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
REBUILDS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD
AND INTO THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 250236
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
836 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...AIR MASS HAS DRIED AND STABILIZED CONSIDERABLY...AS
THE BOISE SOUNDING PWAT WENT FROM 0.83 INCHES AT 00Z YESTERDAY...
TO 0.19 INCHES AT 00Z TODAY. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO WARM FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE THE START OF A
WARMING TREND AS TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY. FORECAST IS
ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BECOMING 12KT
OR LESS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ALOFT UP THRU 10K FEET MSL...WEST
10-20KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UNUSUALLY COOL WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SWRN CANADA.  WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS AND MAIN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS NWWD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO OUR AREA....MAX TEMPS RISING ABOUT 8F
PER DAY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MIN TEMPS WILL LAG...WITH TONIGHT
THE COOLEST NIGHT IN IDAHO AND ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT IN
OREGON...THEN ABOUT 5F WARMER EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
LOCALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BY SUNSET THEN LIGHT DIURNAL
WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.  ZERO POPS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY...AND THEN STAY
RELATIVELY CONSTANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
REBUILDS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD
AND INTO THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 250236
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
836 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...AIR MASS HAS DRIED AND STABILIZED CONSIDERABLY...AS
THE BOISE SOUNDING PWAT WENT FROM 0.83 INCHES AT 00Z YESTERDAY...
TO 0.19 INCHES AT 00Z TODAY. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO WARM FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE THE START OF A
WARMING TREND AS TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY. FORECAST IS
ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BECOMING 12KT
OR LESS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ALOFT UP THRU 10K FEET MSL...WEST
10-20KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UNUSUALLY COOL WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SWRN CANADA.  WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS AND MAIN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS NWWD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO OUR AREA....MAX TEMPS RISING ABOUT 8F
PER DAY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MIN TEMPS WILL LAG...WITH TONIGHT
THE COOLEST NIGHT IN IDAHO AND ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT IN
OREGON...THEN ABOUT 5F WARMER EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
LOCALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BY SUNSET THEN LIGHT DIURNAL
WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.  ZERO POPS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY...AND THEN STAY
RELATIVELY CONSTANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
REBUILDS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD
AND INTO THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 250236
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
836 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...AIR MASS HAS DRIED AND STABILIZED CONSIDERABLY...AS
THE BOISE SOUNDING PWAT WENT FROM 0.83 INCHES AT 00Z YESTERDAY...
TO 0.19 INCHES AT 00Z TODAY. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO WARM FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE THE START OF A
WARMING TREND AS TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY. FORECAST IS
ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BECOMING 12KT
OR LESS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ALOFT UP THRU 10K FEET MSL...WEST
10-20KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UNUSUALLY COOL WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SWRN CANADA.  WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS AND MAIN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS NWWD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO OUR AREA....MAX TEMPS RISING ABOUT 8F
PER DAY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MIN TEMPS WILL LAG...WITH TONIGHT
THE COOLEST NIGHT IN IDAHO AND ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT IN
OREGON...THEN ABOUT 5F WARMER EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
LOCALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BY SUNSET THEN LIGHT DIURNAL
WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.  ZERO POPS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY...AND THEN STAY
RELATIVELY CONSTANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
REBUILDS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD
AND INTO THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/AB




000
FXUS66 KPDT 242249
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
344 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...A DRY COOL WESTERLY FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER THE REGION
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED THE
AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE REDEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES LEADING TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTAINING SOME
MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING HOT WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN GETTING NEAR 100. ASIDE FROM
THE HEAT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THIS HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON. 94

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. SCT 050-080 THROUGH SUNSET THEN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WESTERLY WINDS 10-25KT THROUGH EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS 5-15KT FRIDAY.
94

&&

.FIRE WX...BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST ON MONDAY FOR A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DMH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  83  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  58  83  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  58  86  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  51  84  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  54  86  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  49  79  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  39  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  48  77  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  47  80  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  56  83  59  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/94/94






000
FXUS66 KPQR 242150
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
249 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT ABUNDANT RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS MOVED
WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BUT
DECREASING SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN ITS WAKE...WITH MORE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL WARMING ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND WITH LESS LOW CLOUDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS...FOR SOME MARINE INFLUENCE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE OREGON CASCADE CREST AT
TIMES...AND CONTINUED WARM WEATHER INLAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW THAT HAD PLAGUED SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN ITS WAKE IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING MAINLY TILLAMOOK TO VANCOUVER
NORTHWARD...BUT THESE SHOULD DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A
LOT OF CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PLENTY UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THAT WILL
ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR MUCH
CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL BE SOUTH LANE COUNTY...BUT SOME CLOUDS MAY
FILTER IN OVERNIGHT DOWN THERE AS WELL.

THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH IF ANY UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT...
WITH THE UPPER FLOW EVEN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AT 12Z FRIDAY. THUS EXPECT
FAIRLY DECENT LOW CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AROUND
50N/130W THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY BE THE FEATURE DEVELOPING SOME
PATCHY QPF ALONG THE NORTH COAST FORECAST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY...AND IS
ALSO PROBABLY PART OF WHY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE RATHER SOLID TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SO WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE IN FOR
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NEAR THE NORTH COAST AND COASTAL
MOUNTAINS.

500 MB HEIGHTS DO BEGIN TO BUILD A BIT FRIDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPS INLAND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. CLOUDS ON THE
NORTH COAST MAY AGAIN TEND TO HANG ON FOR A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT CAUSES THE PATCHY LIGHT MORNING
PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 580S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INLAND TEMPS INTO
THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE ON SUNDAY... EXCEPT
TEMPS INLAND MAY GET CLOSER TO 90. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE
LIFTING UP INTO CENTRAL OREGON FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY THAT
MIGHT BRUSH OUR OREGON CASCADE CREST AREA WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM....A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...PUTTING OUR REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST UP THE
RIDGE NEAR OUR REGION.MOST OF THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MISS OUR
AREA...BUT A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
-MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS NOW IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CIGS ALONG THE S WA AND N OR COAST WHICH SHOULD
LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION ON
THE LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOULD SCATTER SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. BUT WITH NW ONSHORE FLOW NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR OVER THE N COAST
OVERNIGHT...AND TRY TO PUSH UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA INTO THE N VALLEY.
A HIGH MVFR DECK MAY ALSO TRY TO FORM ALONG THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND
BACK BUILD INTO KTTD AND KPDX AFTER 12Z FRI. SOME LOW STRATUS OR
PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST
OVERNIGHT...WHERE LIGHT OFFSHORE DRIFT MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY 17Z TO 19Z FRI.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z IN A PASSING SHOWER.
CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES HAS MOVED INLAND AND NW FLOW LESS THAN 15 KT IS
NOW IN CONTROL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN A BIT ON THE
CHOPPY SIDE WITH PERIODS OF 8 TO 9 SEC...BUT WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE
SUBSIDED A LITTLE TODAY AND CURRENTLY SIT IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE.
EXPECT SEAS TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT BY
LATE EVENING.

HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH
THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY
STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE
FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SPEEDS OVER THE CENTRAL OR WATERS. THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT
WILL THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED BY SUN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

A STRONG EBB WILL BRING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
DURING THE EBB AROUND 430 AM FRI MORNING. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     3 AM TO 6 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 242150
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
249 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT ABUNDANT RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS MOVED
WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BUT
DECREASING SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN ITS WAKE...WITH MORE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL WARMING ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND WITH LESS LOW CLOUDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS...FOR SOME MARINE INFLUENCE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE OREGON CASCADE CREST AT
TIMES...AND CONTINUED WARM WEATHER INLAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW THAT HAD PLAGUED SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN ITS WAKE IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING MAINLY TILLAMOOK TO VANCOUVER
NORTHWARD...BUT THESE SHOULD DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A
LOT OF CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PLENTY UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THAT WILL
ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR MUCH
CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL BE SOUTH LANE COUNTY...BUT SOME CLOUDS MAY
FILTER IN OVERNIGHT DOWN THERE AS WELL.

THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH IF ANY UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT...
WITH THE UPPER FLOW EVEN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AT 12Z FRIDAY. THUS EXPECT
FAIRLY DECENT LOW CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AROUND
50N/130W THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY BE THE FEATURE DEVELOPING SOME
PATCHY QPF ALONG THE NORTH COAST FORECAST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY...AND IS
ALSO PROBABLY PART OF WHY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE RATHER SOLID TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SO WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE IN FOR
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NEAR THE NORTH COAST AND COASTAL
MOUNTAINS.

500 MB HEIGHTS DO BEGIN TO BUILD A BIT FRIDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPS INLAND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. CLOUDS ON THE
NORTH COAST MAY AGAIN TEND TO HANG ON FOR A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT CAUSES THE PATCHY LIGHT MORNING
PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 580S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INLAND TEMPS INTO
THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE ON SUNDAY... EXCEPT
TEMPS INLAND MAY GET CLOSER TO 90. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE
LIFTING UP INTO CENTRAL OREGON FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY THAT
MIGHT BRUSH OUR OREGON CASCADE CREST AREA WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM....A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...PUTTING OUR REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST UP THE
RIDGE NEAR OUR REGION.MOST OF THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MISS OUR
AREA...BUT A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
-MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS NOW IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CIGS ALONG THE S WA AND N OR COAST WHICH SHOULD
LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION ON
THE LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOULD SCATTER SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. BUT WITH NW ONSHORE FLOW NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR OVER THE N COAST
OVERNIGHT...AND TRY TO PUSH UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA INTO THE N VALLEY.
A HIGH MVFR DECK MAY ALSO TRY TO FORM ALONG THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND
BACK BUILD INTO KTTD AND KPDX AFTER 12Z FRI. SOME LOW STRATUS OR
PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST
OVERNIGHT...WHERE LIGHT OFFSHORE DRIFT MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY 17Z TO 19Z FRI.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z IN A PASSING SHOWER.
CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES HAS MOVED INLAND AND NW FLOW LESS THAN 15 KT IS
NOW IN CONTROL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN A BIT ON THE
CHOPPY SIDE WITH PERIODS OF 8 TO 9 SEC...BUT WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE
SUBSIDED A LITTLE TODAY AND CURRENTLY SIT IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE.
EXPECT SEAS TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT BY
LATE EVENING.

HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH
THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY
STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE
FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SPEEDS OVER THE CENTRAL OR WATERS. THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT
WILL THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED BY SUN AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

A STRONG EBB WILL BRING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
DURING THE EBB AROUND 430 AM FRI MORNING. PYLE
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     3 AM TO 6 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 242143
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
243 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE BIG TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US THE COOL, SHOWERY
WEATHER IS NOW WELL OFF INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING US WITH DRY ZONAL UPPER FLOW.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND
LOWERING PRESSURES INDICATE THAT A THERMAL TROUGH IS ALREADY
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF INCREASING GRADIENTS, AND THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUD REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST UMPQUA COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA IS CLEAR.

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE BASIC SURFACE PATTERN (COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH) WILL
REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL, WHICH MEANS
GUSTY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST AND
WATERS, AND HOT CONDITIONS INLAND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY. HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

WE WILL BE DRY AND CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO WE WILL JUST HAVE
TO WATCH FOR SOME TRIGGERING MECHANISM TO PINPOINT THE MOST LIKELY
PERIODS. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N 133W RIGHT NOW
AND ALL THE MODELS BRING THIS ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO OUR
AREA SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ASSOCIATED JET SUPPORT ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS EAST. WHILE THE WEST
SIDE WILL BE VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE, MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION IN THE MID LEVELS, SO STORMS
WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED WEST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY.

AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS GRADUALLY GROW MORE
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AND THUS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY,
BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE JET SUPPORT AND NOT A LOT OF MODEL
AGREEMENT AS TO THE PARTICULARS. NEVERTHELESS, IT SHOULD NOTED
THAT IF WE DO GET A GOOD TRIGGER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, IT COULD
PRODUCE QUITE A LOT OF CONVECTION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...SOME STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO THE COAST
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOONS, STRONGEST AT KOTH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 24 JULY 2014...

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND SUNDAY WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH
WEAKENING...RESULTING IN DECREASED WINDS AND WIND WAVES INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST IS
THE EXTENT OF THIS WEAKENING. A MODEL BLEND OF THE DGEX AND THE
STRONGER 00Z GFS WAS UTILIZED. /DW


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE FIRE WEATHER AREAS OF CONCERN HAVE
TRANSITIONED FROM THUNDERSTORMS TO WINDS AND HUMIDITY...AND THEN
WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AT
LEAST.

A THERMAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AND
WILL BE GENERATING GUSTY NORTH WINDS WEST OF THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS...THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
THE RIDGES OF THE COAST RANGE IN CURRY COUNTY AND OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY HIGH TERRAIN. RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY TREND FROM
GOOD TO MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY POOR IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS. EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS IN THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE
VALLEYS...IN ADDITION TO LOWERING HUMIDITIES...WARRANTED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AT RFWMFR FROM 1PM-8PM TOMORROW. WE ARE CONFIDENT
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT HUMIDITIES ARE
MORE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND MODEL TENDENCIES TO
FORECAST DEWPOINTS TOO HIGH AND TEMPERATURES TOO LOW IN THESE
MODERATE-STRONG THERMAL TROUGH PATTERNS. HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE A BIT
TOO HIGH FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY...BUT THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT OCCURS TODAY AND USE THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FOR THEIR DECISIONS.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST OF
THE CASCADES THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN...ON SUNDAY MODELS DEPICT IN
REMARKABLE AGREEMENT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH HOT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...COULD GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE DRY END OF THE SPECTRUM...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES WEST OF A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. NSK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ620.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$






000
FXUS66 KMFR 242143
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
243 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE BIG TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US THE COOL, SHOWERY
WEATHER IS NOW WELL OFF INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING US WITH DRY ZONAL UPPER FLOW.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND
LOWERING PRESSURES INDICATE THAT A THERMAL TROUGH IS ALREADY
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF INCREASING GRADIENTS, AND THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUD REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST UMPQUA COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA IS CLEAR.

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE BASIC SURFACE PATTERN (COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH) WILL
REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL, WHICH MEANS
GUSTY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST AND
WATERS, AND HOT CONDITIONS INLAND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY. HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

WE WILL BE DRY AND CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO WE WILL JUST HAVE
TO WATCH FOR SOME TRIGGERING MECHANISM TO PINPOINT THE MOST LIKELY
PERIODS. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N 133W RIGHT NOW
AND ALL THE MODELS BRING THIS ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO OUR
AREA SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ASSOCIATED JET SUPPORT ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS EAST. WHILE THE WEST
SIDE WILL BE VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE, MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION IN THE MID LEVELS, SO STORMS
WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED WEST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY.

AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS GRADUALLY GROW MORE
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AND THUS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY,
BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE JET SUPPORT AND NOT A LOT OF MODEL
AGREEMENT AS TO THE PARTICULARS. NEVERTHELESS, IT SHOULD NOTED
THAT IF WE DO GET A GOOD TRIGGER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, IT COULD
PRODUCE QUITE A LOT OF CONVECTION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...SOME STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO THE COAST
AROUND DAWN FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOONS, STRONGEST AT KOTH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 24 JULY 2014...

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND SUNDAY WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH
WEAKENING...RESULTING IN DECREASED WINDS AND WIND WAVES INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST IS
THE EXTENT OF THIS WEAKENING. A MODEL BLEND OF THE DGEX AND THE
STRONGER 00Z GFS WAS UTILIZED. /DW


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE FIRE WEATHER AREAS OF CONCERN HAVE
TRANSITIONED FROM THUNDERSTORMS TO WINDS AND HUMIDITY...AND THEN
WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AT
LEAST.

A THERMAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AND
WILL BE GENERATING GUSTY NORTH WINDS WEST OF THE
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS...THE NEXT
FEW AFTERNOONS. ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
THE RIDGES OF THE COAST RANGE IN CURRY COUNTY AND OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY HIGH TERRAIN. RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY TREND FROM
GOOD TO MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY POOR IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS. EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS IN THE ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE
VALLEYS...IN ADDITION TO LOWERING HUMIDITIES...WARRANTED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AT RFWMFR FROM 1PM-8PM TOMORROW. WE ARE CONFIDENT
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT HUMIDITIES ARE
MORE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND MODEL TENDENCIES TO
FORECAST DEWPOINTS TOO HIGH AND TEMPERATURES TOO LOW IN THESE
MODERATE-STRONG THERMAL TROUGH PATTERNS. HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE A BIT
TOO HIGH FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY...BUT THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT OCCURS TODAY AND USE THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FOR THEIR DECISIONS.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST OF
THE CASCADES THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN...ON SUNDAY MODELS DEPICT IN
REMARKABLE AGREEMENT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH HOT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...COULD GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE DRY END OF THE SPECTRUM...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES WEST OF A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. NSK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ620.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$







000
FXUS66 KPDT 242117
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
217 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...A DRY COOL WESTERLY FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER THE REGION
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED THE
AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE REDEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES LEADING TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTAINING SOME
MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING HOT WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN GETTING NEAR 100. ASIDE FROM
THE HEAT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THIS HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON. 94

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. SCT-BKN 050-080 TODAY THROUGH SUNSET. MAINLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY 10-25KT...LIGHT OVERNIGHT. 94

&&

.FIRE WX...BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST ON MONDAY FOR A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DMH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  83  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  58  83  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  58  86  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  51  84  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  54  86  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  49  79  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  39  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  48  77  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  47  80  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  56  83  59  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/94/94









000
FXUS66 KPDT 242117
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
217 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...A DRY COOL WESTERLY FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER THE REGION
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED THE
AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE REDEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES LEADING TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTAINING SOME
MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING HOT WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN GETTING NEAR 100. ASIDE FROM
THE HEAT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THIS HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON. 94

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. SCT-BKN 050-080 TODAY THROUGH SUNSET. MAINLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY 10-25KT...LIGHT OVERNIGHT. 94

&&

.FIRE WX...BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST ON MONDAY FOR A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DMH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  83  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  58  83  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  58  86  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  51  84  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  54  86  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  49  79  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  39  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  48  77  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  47  80  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  56  83  59  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/94/94









000
FXUS66 KPDT 242117
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
217 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...A DRY COOL WESTERLY FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER THE REGION
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED THE
AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE REDEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES LEADING TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTAINING SOME
MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING HOT WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN GETTING NEAR 100. ASIDE FROM
THE HEAT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THIS HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON. 94

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. SCT-BKN 050-080 TODAY THROUGH SUNSET. MAINLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY 10-25KT...LIGHT OVERNIGHT. 94

&&

.FIRE WX...BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST ON MONDAY FOR A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DMH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  83  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  58  83  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  58  86  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  51  84  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  54  86  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  49  79  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  39  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  48  77  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  47  80  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  56  83  59  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/94/94









000
FXUS66 KPDT 242117
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
217 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...A DRY COOL WESTERLY FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER THE REGION
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED THE
AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE REDEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL AMPLIFY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES LEADING TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTAINING SOME
MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING HOT WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE COLUMBIA BASIN GETTING NEAR 100. ASIDE FROM
THE HEAT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THIS HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON. 94

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. SCT-BKN 050-080 TODAY THROUGH SUNSET. MAINLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY 10-25KT...LIGHT OVERNIGHT. 94

&&

.FIRE WX...BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST ON MONDAY FOR A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DMH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  83  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  58  83  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  58  86  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  51  84  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  54  86  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  49  79  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  39  81  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  48  77  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  47  80  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  56  83  59  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/94/94









000
FXUS65 KBOI 242035
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
235 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...UNUSUALLY COOL WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SWRN CANADA.  WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS AND MAIN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS NWWD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO OUR AREA....MAX TEMPS RISING ABOUT 8F
PER DAY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MIN TEMPS WILL LAG...WITH TONIGHT
THE COOLEST NIGHT IN IDAHO AND ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT IN
OREGON...THEN ABOUT 5F WARMER EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
LOCALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BY SUNSET THEN LIGHT DIURNAL
WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.  ZERO POPS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY...AND THEN STAY
RELATIVELY CONSTANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
REBUILDS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD
AND INTO THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SMOKE IN VICINITY OF
WILDFIRES. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS...MAINLY EAST OF KBOI EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WEST 20 TO 30 KTS AT 10K FT
MSL...DECREASING TO 10-15 KTS AFT 00Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS/AB
AVIATION.....JDS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 242035
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
235 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...UNUSUALLY COOL WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SWRN CANADA.  WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS AND MAIN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS NWWD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO OUR AREA....MAX TEMPS RISING ABOUT 8F
PER DAY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MIN TEMPS WILL LAG...WITH TONIGHT
THE COOLEST NIGHT IN IDAHO AND ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT IN
OREGON...THEN ABOUT 5F WARMER EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
LOCALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BY SUNSET THEN LIGHT DIURNAL
WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.  ZERO POPS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY...AND THEN STAY
RELATIVELY CONSTANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE
REBUILDS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD
AND INTO THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SMOKE IN VICINITY OF
WILDFIRES. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS...MAINLY EAST OF KBOI EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WEST 20 TO 30 KTS AT 10K FT
MSL...DECREASING TO 10-15 KTS AFT 00Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS/AB
AVIATION.....JDS



000
FXUS66 KPDT 241725
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA AND EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE CREST OF
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES BUT THESE WILL BE DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN FOR OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE
BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. SCT-BKN 050-080 TODAY THROUGH SUNSET. MAINLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY 10-25KT...LIGHT OVERNIGHT. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 145 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH IN EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THE MAIN FOCUS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE
CASCADES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL START A DRYING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WITH A COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER IDAHO. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. COONFIELD

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE HOT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 103 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A GRIP OVER EASTERN OR/WA
DURING THIS TIME.  THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE....RESULTING IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE GFS, ECMWF, AND THE GEM HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF EASTERN OREGON AND FAR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON DURING THIS TIME
AND AGREE.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WAVE WILL BRING MORE OF A THREAT OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT NOT MUCH RAIN.  THE FORECAST KEEPS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTN/EVE AND WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE.  DUE
TO THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN OR/WA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...I WILL
KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST BUT WONDER IF THE GFS MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BRING WEAK VORTICITY
LOBES AND "BLOBS" OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ODD.  CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED IS LOW.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  79  53  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  79  58  83  58 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  82  58  86  55 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  79  51  84  55 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  81  54  86  53 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  75  49  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  75  39  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  73  48  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  74  47  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  77  56  83  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/94/94







000
FXUS66 KPDT 241725
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA AND EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE CREST OF
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES BUT THESE WILL BE DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN FOR OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE
BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. SCT-BKN 050-080 TODAY THROUGH SUNSET. MAINLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY 10-25KT...LIGHT OVERNIGHT. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 145 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH IN EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THE MAIN FOCUS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE
CASCADES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL START A DRYING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WITH A COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER IDAHO. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. COONFIELD

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE HOT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 103 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A GRIP OVER EASTERN OR/WA
DURING THIS TIME.  THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE....RESULTING IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE GFS, ECMWF, AND THE GEM HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF EASTERN OREGON AND FAR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON DURING THIS TIME
AND AGREE.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WAVE WILL BRING MORE OF A THREAT OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT NOT MUCH RAIN.  THE FORECAST KEEPS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTN/EVE AND WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE.  DUE
TO THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN OR/WA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...I WILL
KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST BUT WONDER IF THE GFS MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BRING WEAK VORTICITY
LOBES AND "BLOBS" OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ODD.  CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED IS LOW.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  79  53  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  79  58  83  58 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  82  58  86  55 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  79  51  84  55 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  81  54  86  53 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  75  49  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  75  39  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  73  48  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  74  47  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  77  56  83  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/94/94






000
FXUS66 KPQR 241608
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT ABUNDANT RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WAS
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BUT
DECREASING SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN ITS WAKE...WITH MORE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL WARMING ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND WITH LESS LOW CLOUDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS...FOR SOME MARINE INFLUENCE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE OREGON CASCADE CREST...AND
CONTINUED WARM WEATHER INLAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW THAT HAD PLAGUED SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN WASHINGTON AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST AROUND 10Z EARLY THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS
WAKE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH COAST
RANGE AREAS AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES FROM MAYBE DETROIT OR SO
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
BUT THE CHANCE IS RATHER SMALL THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. AREAS DOWN NEAR EUGENE MAY
BREAK UP A LITTLE EARLIER...MORE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS
ON THE NORTH COAST AND IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON MAY NOT BREAK AT ALL
BEFORE CLOUDS RETHICKEN AND SPREAD BACK IN TONIGHT.

THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH IF ANY UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT...
WITH THE UPPER FLOW EVEN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AT 12Z FRIDAY. THUS EXPECT
FAIRLY DECENT LOW CLOUDS COVERAGE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AROUND
50N/135W THIS MORNING THAT MAY BE THE FEATURE DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY
QPF ALONG THE NORTH COAST FORECAST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY...AND WILL
LEAVE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN.

500 MB HEIGHTS DO BEGIN TO BUILD A BIT FRIDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPS INLAND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. CLOUDS AT THE
COAST MAY AGAIN TEND TO HANG ON FOR A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT CAUSES THE PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 580S BY
AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INLAND TEMPS INTO
THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ALSO
EXPECT BREEZY SSW WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING. BY 19Z...EXPECT WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING. SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z IN A PASSING SHOWER.
CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES MOVED INLAND THIS MORNING AND WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NOW SHIFTING TO THE NW. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS AM INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N AT CURRENT...WITH PERIODS
STILL SHORT AT AROUND 9 SEC. HOWEVER...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH 4 TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING OVER MOST OF THE WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP
SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT. PYLE/ROCKEY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241608
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT ABUNDANT RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WAS
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BUT
DECREASING SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN ITS WAKE...WITH MORE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL WARMING ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND WITH LESS LOW CLOUDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS...FOR SOME MARINE INFLUENCE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE OREGON CASCADE CREST...AND
CONTINUED WARM WEATHER INLAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW THAT HAD PLAGUED SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN WASHINGTON AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST AROUND 10Z EARLY THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS
WAKE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH COAST
RANGE AREAS AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES FROM MAYBE DETROIT OR SO
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
BUT THE CHANCE IS RATHER SMALL THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. AREAS DOWN NEAR EUGENE MAY
BREAK UP A LITTLE EARLIER...MORE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS
ON THE NORTH COAST AND IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON MAY NOT BREAK AT ALL
BEFORE CLOUDS RETHICKEN AND SPREAD BACK IN TONIGHT.

THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH IF ANY UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT...
WITH THE UPPER FLOW EVEN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AT 12Z FRIDAY. THUS EXPECT
FAIRLY DECENT LOW CLOUDS COVERAGE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AROUND
50N/135W THIS MORNING THAT MAY BE THE FEATURE DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY
QPF ALONG THE NORTH COAST FORECAST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY...AND WILL
LEAVE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN.

500 MB HEIGHTS DO BEGIN TO BUILD A BIT FRIDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPS INLAND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. CLOUDS AT THE
COAST MAY AGAIN TEND TO HANG ON FOR A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT CAUSES THE PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 580S BY
AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INLAND TEMPS INTO
THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ALSO
EXPECT BREEZY SSW WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING. BY 19Z...EXPECT WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING. SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z IN A PASSING SHOWER.
CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES MOVED INLAND THIS MORNING AND WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NOW SHIFTING TO THE NW. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS AM INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N AT CURRENT...WITH PERIODS
STILL SHORT AT AROUND 9 SEC. HOWEVER...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH 4 TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING OVER MOST OF THE WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP
SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT. PYLE/ROCKEY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241608
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT ABUNDANT RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WAS
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BUT
DECREASING SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN ITS WAKE...WITH MORE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL WARMING ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND WITH LESS LOW CLOUDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS...FOR SOME MARINE INFLUENCE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE OREGON CASCADE CREST...AND
CONTINUED WARM WEATHER INLAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW THAT HAD PLAGUED SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN WASHINGTON AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST AROUND 10Z EARLY THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS
WAKE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH COAST
RANGE AREAS AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES FROM MAYBE DETROIT OR SO
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
BUT THE CHANCE IS RATHER SMALL THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. AREAS DOWN NEAR EUGENE MAY
BREAK UP A LITTLE EARLIER...MORE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS
ON THE NORTH COAST AND IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON MAY NOT BREAK AT ALL
BEFORE CLOUDS RETHICKEN AND SPREAD BACK IN TONIGHT.

THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH IF ANY UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT...
WITH THE UPPER FLOW EVEN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AT 12Z FRIDAY. THUS EXPECT
FAIRLY DECENT LOW CLOUDS COVERAGE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AROUND
50N/135W THIS MORNING THAT MAY BE THE FEATURE DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY
QPF ALONG THE NORTH COAST FORECAST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY...AND WILL
LEAVE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN.

500 MB HEIGHTS DO BEGIN TO BUILD A BIT FRIDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPS INLAND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. CLOUDS AT THE
COAST MAY AGAIN TEND TO HANG ON FOR A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT CAUSES THE PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 580S BY
AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INLAND TEMPS INTO
THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ALSO
EXPECT BREEZY SSW WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING. BY 19Z...EXPECT WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING. SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z IN A PASSING SHOWER.
CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES MOVED INLAND THIS MORNING AND WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NOW SHIFTING TO THE NW. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS AM INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N AT CURRENT...WITH PERIODS
STILL SHORT AT AROUND 9 SEC. HOWEVER...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH 4 TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING OVER MOST OF THE WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP
SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT. PYLE/ROCKEY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241608
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT ABUNDANT RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WAS
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BUT
DECREASING SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN ITS WAKE...WITH MORE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL WARMING ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND WITH LESS LOW CLOUDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS...FOR SOME MARINE INFLUENCE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE OREGON CASCADE CREST...AND
CONTINUED WARM WEATHER INLAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW THAT HAD PLAGUED SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN WASHINGTON AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST AROUND 10Z EARLY THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS
WAKE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH COAST
RANGE AREAS AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES FROM MAYBE DETROIT OR SO
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
BUT THE CHANCE IS RATHER SMALL THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. AREAS DOWN NEAR EUGENE MAY
BREAK UP A LITTLE EARLIER...MORE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS
ON THE NORTH COAST AND IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON MAY NOT BREAK AT ALL
BEFORE CLOUDS RETHICKEN AND SPREAD BACK IN TONIGHT.

THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH IF ANY UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT...
WITH THE UPPER FLOW EVEN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AT 12Z FRIDAY. THUS EXPECT
FAIRLY DECENT LOW CLOUDS COVERAGE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AROUND
50N/135W THIS MORNING THAT MAY BE THE FEATURE DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY
QPF ALONG THE NORTH COAST FORECAST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY...AND WILL
LEAVE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN.

500 MB HEIGHTS DO BEGIN TO BUILD A BIT FRIDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPS INLAND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. CLOUDS AT THE
COAST MAY AGAIN TEND TO HANG ON FOR A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT CAUSES THE PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 580S BY
AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INLAND TEMPS INTO
THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ALSO
EXPECT BREEZY SSW WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING. BY 19Z...EXPECT WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING. SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z IN A PASSING SHOWER.
CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES MOVED INLAND THIS MORNING AND WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NOW SHIFTING TO THE NW. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS AM INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N AT CURRENT...WITH PERIODS
STILL SHORT AT AROUND 9 SEC. HOWEVER...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH 4 TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING OVER MOST OF THE WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP
SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT. PYLE/ROCKEY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 241608
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
908 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT ABUNDANT RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WAS
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BUT
DECREASING SHOWERS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN ITS WAKE...WITH MORE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL WARMING ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND WITH LESS LOW CLOUDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT HIGH 500 MB
HEIGHTS...FOR SOME MARINE INFLUENCE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE OREGON CASCADE CREST...AND
CONTINUED WARM WEATHER INLAND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW THAT HAD PLAGUED SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL HAS MOVED
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN WASHINGTON AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST AROUND 10Z EARLY THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ITS
WAKE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH COAST
RANGE AREAS AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES FROM MAYBE DETROIT OR SO
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
BUT THE CHANCE IS RATHER SMALL THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. AREAS DOWN NEAR EUGENE MAY
BREAK UP A LITTLE EARLIER...MORE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS
ON THE NORTH COAST AND IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON MAY NOT BREAK AT ALL
BEFORE CLOUDS RETHICKEN AND SPREAD BACK IN TONIGHT.

THE MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH IF ANY UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT...
WITH THE UPPER FLOW EVEN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AT 12Z FRIDAY. THUS EXPECT
FAIRLY DECENT LOW CLOUDS COVERAGE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AROUND
50N/135W THIS MORNING THAT MAY BE THE FEATURE DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY
QPF ALONG THE NORTH COAST FORECAST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY...AND WILL
LEAVE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN.

500 MB HEIGHTS DO BEGIN TO BUILD A BIT FRIDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPS INLAND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. CLOUDS AT THE
COAST MAY AGAIN TEND TO HANG ON FOR A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT CAUSES THE PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN EARNEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 580S BY
AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING LOW CLOUDS INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INLAND TEMPS INTO
THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ALSO
EXPECT BREEZY SSW WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING. BY 19Z...EXPECT WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING. SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z IN A PASSING SHOWER.
CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES MOVED INLAND THIS MORNING AND WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NOW SHIFTING TO THE NW. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS AM INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N AT CURRENT...WITH PERIODS
STILL SHORT AT AROUND 9 SEC. HOWEVER...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH 4 TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING OVER MOST OF THE WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH THERMAL
LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP
SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT. PYLE/ROCKEY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 241529
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
829 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
NICELY FOR MOST OF US TODAY. THE FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE AND THIS
CONTINUES TO ALLOW STRATUS TO FLOW IN OVER THE THE UMPQUA AND
NORTH COAST. HOWEVER, IT IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING UP,
AND THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN QUICKLY OFFSHORE TODAY, SO WE
OUGHT TO HAVE SUNNY SKIES OVER OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST. WE WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY TODAY,
BUT IT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST SIDE.
HOWEVER, A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY THAT WILL TAKE US WELL ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/12Z TAFS...

LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE PRESENT AT THE DOUGLAS AND
NORTHERN COOS COUNTY COAST, BUT WILL RISE TO VFR AND DISSIPATE
AROUND 18Z. THERE ARE ALSO AREAS OF VFR CEILINGS NEAR NORTH FACING
SLOPES THAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO CLEAR SKIES BY AROUND 18Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, A
DRY AND WARM AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. /DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AND EXPECT SOME CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. ALSO A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BUILD ALONG THE COAST TODAY BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE STRONG SURFACE THERMAL
THROUGH WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...WEAKENING SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY. INLAND...BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS INLAND
AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.

THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED TO THE NORTH OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY TRACK
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO STAY
NORTH OF THE COOS AND COASTAL DOUGLAS COUNTY AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTH BEND
NORTHWARD. OVERALL, FOR MOST THE AREA EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND ACROSS DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND IN OTHER WEST SIDE AREAS WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE 70S TO 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. WITH THE DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST, GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. ALSO OFFSHORE FLOW WITH THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MILD CHETCO EFFECT TO THE BROOKINGS AREA.

DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING 7 TO 10 DECREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS...AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S TO 90S. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING FURTHER AS AN UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. BY SUNDAY, HIGHS IN THE
90S TO LOW 100S ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST INLAND VALLEYS. ALSO ON
SUNDAY, MODELS BEGIN TO TRACK SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE AREA
DURING PEAK HEATING AND MODELS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY OVER INLAND
AREAS AS WELL AS SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INLAND MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IN DEPICTING THIS SHORTWAVE. SINCE FORECAST
STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT, EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD MOST
LIKELY STAY LOCKED ON TERRAIN FEATURES.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RIDGE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 90S TO MID 100S BY TUESDAY IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND REACHING
THE MID 90S FOR EAST SIDE VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LOWERING A COUPLE
DEGREES THOUGH. IN ADDITION TO HOT WEATHER, EXPECT A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR INLAND AREAS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE CASCADES
EAST IN OREGON AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
CASCADES IN OREGON AS MODELS SHOW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY. SO HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON ON THESE
DAYS.

MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 24 JULY 2014...

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND SUNDAY WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH
WEAKENING...RESULTING IN DECREASED WINDS AND WIND WAVES INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST IS
THE EXTENT OF THIS WEAKENING. A MODEL BLEND OF THE DGEX AND THE
STRONGER 00Z GFS WAS UTILIZED. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM
     PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$






000
FXUS66 KPDT 241513
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
813 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA AND EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE CREST OF
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES BUT THESE WILL BE DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN FOR OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE
BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 145 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH IN EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THE MAIN FOCUS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE
CASCADES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL START A DRYING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WITH A COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER IDAHO. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. COONFIELD

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE HOT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 103 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A GRIP OVER EASTERN OR/WA
DURING THIS TIME.  THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE....RESULTING IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE GFS, ECMWF, AND THE GEM HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF EASTERN OREGON AND FAR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON DURING THIS TIME
AND AGREE.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WAVE WILL BRING MORE OF A THREAT OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT NOT MUCH RAIN.  THE FORECAST KEEPS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTN/EVE AND WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE.  DUE
TO THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN OR/WA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...I WILL
KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST BUT WONDER IF THE GFS MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BRING WEAK VORTICITY
LOBES AND "BLOBS" OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ODD.  CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED IS LOW.  WISTER

AVIATION...12Z TAFS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 6000-9000
FEET AGL WILL DISSIPATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR BY THIS EVENING.  WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10-18
KNOTS THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  79  53  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  79  58  83  58 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  82  58  86  55 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  79  51  84  55 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  81  54  86  53 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  75  49  79  50 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  75  39  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  73  48  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  74  47  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  77  56  83  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/94/94









000
FXUS65 KBOI 241507
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
907 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ALONG 50N IN
SWRN CANADA TODAY AND BRING OUR CWA ITS COOLEST JULY DAY SINCE 2010.
AFTER THAT THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL EXPAND
OVER ALL THE WRN U.S. RETURNING HOT WX TO OUR AREA. EVEN WITH THE
UPPER LOW NEARBY TODAY THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND NO THUNDERSTORMS OR
PCPN ARE EXPECTED.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE 15-25 MPH FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE SNAKE BASIN...5 TO 15 MPH ELSEWHERE.  TONIGHT WILL BE
QUITE COOL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS...MAINLY EAST OF KBOI. WINDS ALOFT WEST
20 TO 30 KTS AT 10K FT MSL...DECREASING TO 10-15 KTS AFT 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NE
FROM WASHINGTON INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE
OUR AREA IN DRY WSW FLOW. AFTER YDAY/S COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER TODAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MOST FOLKS. THE WARM-UP WILL BEGIN FRIDAY...WITH VALLEY TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. WINDS TODAY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL BE
MODERATE OUT OF THE SW...AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THESE
WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5
MPH WEAKER. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT BOTH DAYS.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AS DRY
AIR AT MID LEVELS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE SEVERAL
DAYS BEFORE MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY...AND THEN STAY RELATIVELY CONSTANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE DRAWN
UP OVER THE AREA...WHICH SUPPORTS A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY
AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....TB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 241507
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
907 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ALONG 50N IN
SWRN CANADA TODAY AND BRING OUR CWA ITS COOLEST JULY DAY SINCE 2010.
AFTER THAT THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL EXPAND
OVER ALL THE WRN U.S. RETURNING HOT WX TO OUR AREA. EVEN WITH THE
UPPER LOW NEARBY TODAY THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND NO THUNDERSTORMS OR
PCPN ARE EXPECTED.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE 15-25 MPH FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE SNAKE BASIN...5 TO 15 MPH ELSEWHERE.  TONIGHT WILL BE
QUITE COOL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS...MAINLY EAST OF KBOI. WINDS ALOFT WEST
20 TO 30 KTS AT 10K FT MSL...DECREASING TO 10-15 KTS AFT 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NE
FROM WASHINGTON INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE
OUR AREA IN DRY WSW FLOW. AFTER YDAY/S COLD FRONT...TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER TODAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MOST FOLKS. THE WARM-UP WILL BEGIN FRIDAY...WITH VALLEY TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 80S. WINDS TODAY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL BE
MODERATE OUT OF THE SW...AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THESE
WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET AND WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5
MPH WEAKER. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT BOTH DAYS.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AS DRY
AIR AT MID LEVELS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE SEVERAL
DAYS BEFORE MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY...AND THEN STAY RELATIVELY CONSTANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE DRAWN
UP OVER THE AREA...WHICH SUPPORTS A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY
AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....TB




000
FXUS66 KPDT 241108
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
145 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH IN EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THE MAIN FOCUS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE
CASCADES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL START A DRYING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WITH A COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER IDAHO. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE HOT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 103 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A GRIP OVER EASTERN OR/WA
DURING THIS TIME.  THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE....RESULTING IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE GFS, ECMWF, AND THE GEM HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF EASTERN OREGON AND FAR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON DURING THIS TIME
AND AGREE.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WAVE WILL BRING MORE OF A THREAT OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT NOT MUCH RAIN.  THE FORECAST KEEPS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTN/EVE AND WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE.  DUE
TO THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN OR/WA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...I WILL
KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST BUT WONDER IF THE GFS MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BRING WEAK VORTICITY
LOBES AND "BLOBS" OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ODD.  CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED IS LOW.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 6000-9000
FEET AGL WILL DISSIPATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR BY THIS EVENING.  WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10-18
KNOTS THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  50  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  78  55  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  82  54  85  55 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  77  53  83  55 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  80  52  85  53 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  73  50  80  50 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  73  39  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  72  44  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  74  46  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  76  55  83  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/85/85






000
FXUS66 KPDT 241108
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
145 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH IN EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THE MAIN FOCUS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE
CASCADES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL START A DRYING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WITH A COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER IDAHO. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE HOT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 103 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A GRIP OVER EASTERN OR/WA
DURING THIS TIME.  THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE....RESULTING IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE GFS, ECMWF, AND THE GEM HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF EASTERN OREGON AND FAR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON DURING THIS TIME
AND AGREE.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WAVE WILL BRING MORE OF A THREAT OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT NOT MUCH RAIN.  THE FORECAST KEEPS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTN/EVE AND WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE.  DUE
TO THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN OR/WA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...I WILL
KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST BUT WONDER IF THE GFS MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BRING WEAK VORTICITY
LOBES AND "BLOBS" OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ODD.  CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED IS LOW.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 6000-9000
FEET AGL WILL DISSIPATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR BY THIS EVENING.  WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10-18
KNOTS THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  50  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  78  55  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  82  54  85  55 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  77  53  83  55 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  80  52  85  53 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  73  50  80  50 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  73  39  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  72  44  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  74  46  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  76  55  83  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/85/85







000
FXUS66 KMFR 240958
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
258 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AND EXPECT SOME CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. ALSO A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BUILD ALONG THE COAST TODAY BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THE STRONG SURFACE THERMAL
THROUGH WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...WEAKENING SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY. INLAND...BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS INLAND
AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.

THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED TO THE NORTH OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY TRACK
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO STAY
NORTH OF THE COOS AND COASTAL DOUGLAS COUNTY AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTH BEND
NORTHWARD. OVERALL, FOR MOST THE AREA EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND ACROSS DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND IN OTHER WEST SIDE AREAS WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE 70S TO 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. WITH THE DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST, GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. ALSO OFFSHORE FLOW WITH THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MILD CHETCO EFFECT TO THE BROOKINGS AREA.

DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING 7 TO 10 DECREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS...AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S TO 90S. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING FURTHER AS AN UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. BY SUNDAY, HIGHS IN THE
90S TO LOW 100S ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST INLAND VALLEYS. ALSO ON
SUNDAY, MODELS BEGIN TO TRACK SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE AREA
DURING PEAK HEATING AND MODELS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY OVER INLAND
AREAS AS WELL AS SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INLAND MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IN DEPICTING THIS SHORTWAVE. SINCE FORECAST
STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT, EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD MOST
LIKELY STAY LOCKED ON TERRAIN FEATURES.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RIDGE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 90S TO MID 100S BY TUESDAY IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND REACHING
THE MID 90S FOR EAST SIDE VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LOWERING A COUPLE
DEGREES THOUGH. IN ADDITION TO HOT WEATHER, EXPECT A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR INLAND AREAS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE CASCADES
EAST IN OREGON AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
CASCADES IN OREGON AS MODELS SHOW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY. SO HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON ON THESE
DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/06Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION
FROM A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW TO A SUBSIDENT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS FROM THE OREGON CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT, DIMINISHING SOME TOWARD AND AFTER
SUNRISE AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE.  AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND NEAR COAST
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS MAY SPREAD INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY
AND THE KRBG AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT MVFR OUT OF
THE KRBG FORECAST TAF. OVERALL, ANTICIPATE MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS,
EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS, TO REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR. BY LATE MORNING EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BECOME VFR UNDER A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND WARMER
AIR MASS. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 24 JULY 2014...

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND SUNDAY WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH
WEAKENING...RESULTING IN DECREASED WINDS AND WIND WAVES INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST IS
THE EXTENT OF THIS WEAKENING. A MODEL BLEND OF THE DGEX AND THE
STRONGER 00Z GFS WAS UTILIZED. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM
     PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

CC







000
FXUS66 KPQR 240938
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
237 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THAT WAS OVER WESTERN WA EARLY
THU MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY E TODAY. AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN WA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A VORT MAX WRAPPING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW PUSHING INTO NW OREGON. MOST OF THE REMAINING RAIN
SHOWERS WERE AHEAD OF THE VORT LOBE OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS LINGERING TODAY IN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TODAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DECREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW ACCELERATES
EASTWARD. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...WITH
MODELS GENERALLY SHOWING MODEST WARMING AT H8 TO AROUND 8 DEG C BY
00Z FRI.

A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL PATTERN RETURNS TONIGHT AND IN
GENERAL REMAINS THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES OFFSHORE TURNS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACK TO THE NW...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOES FROM W
TONIGHT TO SW BY SAT WITH SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO A
SLOWLY STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE E. MARINE CLOUDS WILL
TEND TOWARDS A PATTERN OF RETREATING TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS
FRI AND SAT...AND LOCALLY PUSHING INLAND ESP UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE
DRY WEATHER DEPICTED BY THE MODELS IS SOME LIGHT QPF SEEN IN NAM AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THIS APPEARS
TO COME FROM SOME WEAK OOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEPICTED ALONG THE 290K
ISENTROPE IN THE MARINE LAYER OF THOSE MODELS 12Z FRI MORNING.
ALTHOUGH WEAK LOOKING...SINCE BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS...WILL
ADD CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE BUT WITH JUST 10 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
FAR N PART OF THE COAST FRI MORNING. WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SHALLOWER MARINE INFLUENCE...WILL SEE DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY SAT.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WITH POCKETS OF MVFR INLAND N OF A KMMV TO KPDX LINE...THOUGH
WORST CONDITIONS OVER INLAND SW WASHINGTON. SEVERAL BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING INLAND N OF A KONP TO KSLE LINE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE AFT 13Z OR 14Z. BY 19Z...WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS
THROUGH 15Z. CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 2500 FT DURING THAT
TIME. CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 20Z.     ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES CONTINUES TO WORK INLAND OVER W WASHINGTON.
THIS MAINTAINING GUSTY S TO SW WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
CASCADE HEAD...WITH GUSTS 25 KT THROUGH 9 AM. AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS
AM INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N OF CASCADE HEAD THIS
AM...WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT TO THE S. PERIODS STILL SHORT...GENERALLY
AROUND 8 SEC. SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STEEP
CHOPPY SEAS ON WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD
UNTIL 9 AM. LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...WITH 4
TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING ON MOST WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH
THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND
POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THIS MORNING ON ALL
         COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM TODAY
         ON COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 6 AM TODAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 240938
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
237 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THAT WAS OVER WESTERN WA EARLY
THU MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY E TODAY. AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN WA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A VORT MAX WRAPPING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW PUSHING INTO NW OREGON. MOST OF THE REMAINING RAIN
SHOWERS WERE AHEAD OF THE VORT LOBE OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS LINGERING TODAY IN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TODAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DECREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW ACCELERATES
EASTWARD. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...WITH
MODELS GENERALLY SHOWING MODEST WARMING AT H8 TO AROUND 8 DEG C BY
00Z FRI.

A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL PATTERN RETURNS TONIGHT AND IN
GENERAL REMAINS THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES OFFSHORE TURNS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACK TO THE NW...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOES FROM W
TONIGHT TO SW BY SAT WITH SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO A
SLOWLY STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE E. MARINE CLOUDS WILL
TEND TOWARDS A PATTERN OF RETREATING TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS
FRI AND SAT...AND LOCALLY PUSHING INLAND ESP UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE
DRY WEATHER DEPICTED BY THE MODELS IS SOME LIGHT QPF SEEN IN NAM AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THIS APPEARS
TO COME FROM SOME WEAK OOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEPICTED ALONG THE 290K
ISENTROPE IN THE MARINE LAYER OF THOSE MODELS 12Z FRI MORNING.
ALTHOUGH WEAK LOOKING...SINCE BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS...WILL
ADD CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE BUT WITH JUST 10 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
FAR N PART OF THE COAST FRI MORNING. WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SHALLOWER MARINE INFLUENCE...WILL SEE DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY SAT.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WITH POCKETS OF MVFR INLAND N OF A KMMV TO KPDX LINE...THOUGH
WORST CONDITIONS OVER INLAND SW WASHINGTON. SEVERAL BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING INLAND N OF A KONP TO KSLE LINE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE AFT 13Z OR 14Z. BY 19Z...WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS
THROUGH 15Z. CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 2500 FT DURING THAT
TIME. CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 20Z.     ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES CONTINUES TO WORK INLAND OVER W WASHINGTON.
THIS MAINTAINING GUSTY S TO SW WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
CASCADE HEAD...WITH GUSTS 25 KT THROUGH 9 AM. AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS
AM INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N OF CASCADE HEAD THIS
AM...WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT TO THE S. PERIODS STILL SHORT...GENERALLY
AROUND 8 SEC. SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STEEP
CHOPPY SEAS ON WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD
UNTIL 9 AM. LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...WITH 4
TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING ON MOST WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH
THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND
POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THIS MORNING ON ALL
         COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM TODAY
         ON COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 6 AM TODAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240938
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
237 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THAT WAS OVER WESTERN WA EARLY
THU MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY E TODAY. AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN WA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A VORT MAX WRAPPING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW PUSHING INTO NW OREGON. MOST OF THE REMAINING RAIN
SHOWERS WERE AHEAD OF THE VORT LOBE OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS LINGERING TODAY IN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TODAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DECREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW ACCELERATES
EASTWARD. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...WITH
MODELS GENERALLY SHOWING MODEST WARMING AT H8 TO AROUND 8 DEG C BY
00Z FRI.

A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL PATTERN RETURNS TONIGHT AND IN
GENERAL REMAINS THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES OFFSHORE TURNS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACK TO THE NW...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOES FROM W
TONIGHT TO SW BY SAT WITH SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO A
SLOWLY STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE E. MARINE CLOUDS WILL
TEND TOWARDS A PATTERN OF RETREATING TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS
FRI AND SAT...AND LOCALLY PUSHING INLAND ESP UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE
DRY WEATHER DEPICTED BY THE MODELS IS SOME LIGHT QPF SEEN IN NAM AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THIS APPEARS
TO COME FROM SOME WEAK OOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEPICTED ALONG THE 290K
ISENTROPE IN THE MARINE LAYER OF THOSE MODELS 12Z FRI MORNING.
ALTHOUGH WEAK LOOKING...SINCE BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS...WILL
ADD CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE BUT WITH JUST 10 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
FAR N PART OF THE COAST FRI MORNING. WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SHALLOWER MARINE INFLUENCE...WILL SEE DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY SAT.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WITH POCKETS OF MVFR INLAND N OF A KMMV TO KPDX LINE...THOUGH
WORST CONDITIONS OVER INLAND SW WASHINGTON. SEVERAL BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING INLAND N OF A KONP TO KSLE LINE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE AFT 13Z OR 14Z. BY 19Z...WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS
THROUGH 15Z. CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 2500 FT DURING THAT
TIME. CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 20Z.     ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES CONTINUES TO WORK INLAND OVER W WASHINGTON.
THIS MAINTAINING GUSTY S TO SW WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
CASCADE HEAD...WITH GUSTS 25 KT THROUGH 9 AM. AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS
AM INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N OF CASCADE HEAD THIS
AM...WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT TO THE S. PERIODS STILL SHORT...GENERALLY
AROUND 8 SEC. SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STEEP
CHOPPY SEAS ON WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD
UNTIL 9 AM. LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...WITH 4
TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING ON MOST WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH
THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND
POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THIS MORNING ON ALL
         COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM TODAY
         ON COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 6 AM TODAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240938
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
237 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THAT WAS OVER WESTERN WA EARLY
THU MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY E TODAY. AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN WA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A VORT MAX WRAPPING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW PUSHING INTO NW OREGON. MOST OF THE REMAINING RAIN
SHOWERS WERE AHEAD OF THE VORT LOBE OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS LINGERING TODAY IN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TODAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DECREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW ACCELERATES
EASTWARD. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...WITH
MODELS GENERALLY SHOWING MODEST WARMING AT H8 TO AROUND 8 DEG C BY
00Z FRI.

A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL PATTERN RETURNS TONIGHT AND IN
GENERAL REMAINS THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES OFFSHORE TURNS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACK TO THE NW...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOES FROM W
TONIGHT TO SW BY SAT WITH SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO A
SLOWLY STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE E. MARINE CLOUDS WILL
TEND TOWARDS A PATTERN OF RETREATING TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS
FRI AND SAT...AND LOCALLY PUSHING INLAND ESP UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE
DRY WEATHER DEPICTED BY THE MODELS IS SOME LIGHT QPF SEEN IN NAM AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THIS APPEARS
TO COME FROM SOME WEAK OOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEPICTED ALONG THE 290K
ISENTROPE IN THE MARINE LAYER OF THOSE MODELS 12Z FRI MORNING.
ALTHOUGH WEAK LOOKING...SINCE BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS...WILL
ADD CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE BUT WITH JUST 10 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
FAR N PART OF THE COAST FRI MORNING. WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SHALLOWER MARINE INFLUENCE...WILL SEE DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY SAT.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WITH POCKETS OF MVFR INLAND N OF A KMMV TO KPDX LINE...THOUGH
WORST CONDITIONS OVER INLAND SW WASHINGTON. SEVERAL BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING INLAND N OF A KONP TO KSLE LINE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE AFT 13Z OR 14Z. BY 19Z...WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS
THROUGH 15Z. CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 2500 FT DURING THAT
TIME. CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 20Z.     ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES CONTINUES TO WORK INLAND OVER W WASHINGTON.
THIS MAINTAINING GUSTY S TO SW WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
CASCADE HEAD...WITH GUSTS 25 KT THROUGH 9 AM. AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS
AM INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N OF CASCADE HEAD THIS
AM...WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT TO THE S. PERIODS STILL SHORT...GENERALLY
AROUND 8 SEC. SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STEEP
CHOPPY SEAS ON WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD
UNTIL 9 AM. LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...WITH 4
TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING ON MOST WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH
THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND
POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THIS MORNING ON ALL
         COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM TODAY
         ON COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 6 AM TODAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240938
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
237 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THAT WAS OVER WESTERN WA EARLY
THU MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY E TODAY. AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN WA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A VORT MAX WRAPPING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW PUSHING INTO NW OREGON. MOST OF THE REMAINING RAIN
SHOWERS WERE AHEAD OF THE VORT LOBE OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS LINGERING TODAY IN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TODAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DECREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW ACCELERATES
EASTWARD. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY...WITH
MODELS GENERALLY SHOWING MODEST WARMING AT H8 TO AROUND 8 DEG C BY
00Z FRI.

A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL PATTERN RETURNS TONIGHT AND IN
GENERAL REMAINS THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES OFFSHORE TURNS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACK TO THE NW...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOES FROM W
TONIGHT TO SW BY SAT WITH SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO A
SLOWLY STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE E. MARINE CLOUDS WILL
TEND TOWARDS A PATTERN OF RETREATING TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS
FRI AND SAT...AND LOCALLY PUSHING INLAND ESP UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE
DRY WEATHER DEPICTED BY THE MODELS IS SOME LIGHT QPF SEEN IN NAM AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THIS APPEARS
TO COME FROM SOME WEAK OOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEPICTED ALONG THE 290K
ISENTROPE IN THE MARINE LAYER OF THOSE MODELS 12Z FRI MORNING.
ALTHOUGH WEAK LOOKING...SINCE BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE THIS...WILL
ADD CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE BUT WITH JUST 10 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
FAR N PART OF THE COAST FRI MORNING. WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SHALLOWER MARINE INFLUENCE...WILL SEE DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL BY SAT.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WITH POCKETS OF MVFR INLAND N OF A KMMV TO KPDX LINE...THOUGH
WORST CONDITIONS OVER INLAND SW WASHINGTON. SEVERAL BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING INLAND N OF A KONP TO KSLE LINE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE AFT 13Z OR 14Z. BY 19Z...WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING BREAKS BETWEEN CLOUDS AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS AIR MASS STABILIZES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS
THROUGH 15Z. CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 2500 FT DURING THAT
TIME. CLOUDS BREAKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 20Z.     ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES CONTINUES TO WORK INLAND OVER W WASHINGTON.
THIS MAINTAINING GUSTY S TO SW WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
CASCADE HEAD...WITH GUSTS 25 KT THROUGH 9 AM. AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER INLAND...WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN MORE WESTERLY LATER THIS
AM INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FT ON THE WATERS N OF CASCADE HEAD THIS
AM...WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT TO THE S. PERIODS STILL SHORT...GENERALLY
AROUND 8 SEC. SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STEEP
CHOPPY SEAS ON WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD
UNTIL 9 AM. LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...WITH 4
TO 5 FT BY LATE EVENING ON MOST WATERS.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER NE PAC TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH
THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDING OVER NW CALIF. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND
POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY S OF NEWPORT.   ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THIS MORNING ON ALL
         COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM TODAY
         ON COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 6 AM TODAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 240846
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
145 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH IN EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THE MAIN FOCUS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE
CASCADES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL START A DRYING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WITH A COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER IDAHO. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE HOT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 103 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A GRIP OVER EASTERN OR/WA
DURING THIS TIME.  THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE....RESULTING IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE GFS, ECMWF, AND THE GEM HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF EASTERN OREGON AND FAR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON DURING THIS TIME
AND AGREE.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WAVE WILL BRING MORE OF A THREAT OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT NOT MUCH RAIN.  THE FORECAST KEEPS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTN/EVE AND WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE.  DUE
TO THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN OR/WA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...I WILL
KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST BUT WONDER IF THE GFS MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BRING WEAK VORTICITY
LOBES AND "BLOBS" OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ODD.  CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED IS LOW.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...AN UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING NEAR KALW AND
KPDT THROUGH 24/08 UTC. A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KDLS AND KYKM AS
WELL OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE VFR WITH LOWEST CIGS BETWEEN 4500 AND
7000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AT KPSC, KALW AND
KPDT. MOST SITES WILL SEE WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KTS THURSDAY WITH
STRONGEST WINDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  50  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  78  55  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  82  54  85  55 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  77  53  83  55 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  80  52  85  53 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  73  50  80  50 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  73  39  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  72  44  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  74  46  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  76  55  83  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/85/85









000
FXUS66 KPDT 240846
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
145 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH IN EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THE MAIN FOCUS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE
CASCADES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL START A DRYING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WITH A COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER IDAHO. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE HOT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 103 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A GRIP OVER EASTERN OR/WA
DURING THIS TIME.  THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE....RESULTING IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE GFS, ECMWF, AND THE GEM HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF EASTERN OREGON AND FAR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON DURING THIS TIME
AND AGREE.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WAVE WILL BRING MORE OF A THREAT OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT NOT MUCH RAIN.  THE FORECAST KEEPS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTN/EVE AND WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE.  DUE
TO THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN OR/WA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...I WILL
KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST BUT WONDER IF THE GFS MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BRING WEAK VORTICITY
LOBES AND "BLOBS" OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ODD.  CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED IS LOW.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...AN UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING NEAR KALW AND
KPDT THROUGH 24/08 UTC. A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KDLS AND KYKM AS
WELL OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE VFR WITH LOWEST CIGS BETWEEN 4500 AND
7000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AT KPSC, KALW AND
KPDT. MOST SITES WILL SEE WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KTS THURSDAY WITH
STRONGEST WINDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  50  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  78  55  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  82  54  85  55 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  77  53  83  55 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  80  52  85  53 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  73  50  80  50 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  73  39  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  72  44  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  74  46  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  76  55  83  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/85/85









000
FXUS66 KPDT 240846
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
145 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH IN EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THE MAIN FOCUS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE
CASCADES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL START A DRYING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WITH A COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER IDAHO. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE HOT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 103 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A GRIP OVER EASTERN OR/WA
DURING THIS TIME.  THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE....RESULTING IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE GFS, ECMWF, AND THE GEM HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF EASTERN OREGON AND FAR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON DURING THIS TIME
AND AGREE.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WAVE WILL BRING MORE OF A THREAT OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT NOT MUCH RAIN.  THE FORECAST KEEPS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTN/EVE AND WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE.  DUE
TO THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN OR/WA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...I WILL
KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST BUT WONDER IF THE GFS MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BRING WEAK VORTICITY
LOBES AND "BLOBS" OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ODD.  CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED IS LOW.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...AN UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING NEAR KALW AND
KPDT THROUGH 24/08 UTC. A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KDLS AND KYKM AS
WELL OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE VFR WITH LOWEST CIGS BETWEEN 4500 AND
7000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AT KPSC, KALW AND
KPDT. MOST SITES WILL SEE WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KTS THURSDAY WITH
STRONGEST WINDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  50  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  78  55  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  82  54  85  55 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  77  53  83  55 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  80  52  85  53 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  73  50  80  50 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  73  39  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  72  44  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  74  46  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  76  55  83  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/85/85









000
FXUS66 KPDT 240846
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
145 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH IN EASTERN WASHINGTON.
THE MAIN FOCUS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE
CASCADES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL START A DRYING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WITH A COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER IDAHO. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. COONFIELD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE HOT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 103 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A GRIP OVER EASTERN OR/WA
DURING THIS TIME.  THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE....RESULTING IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE GFS, ECMWF, AND THE GEM HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF EASTERN OREGON AND FAR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON DURING THIS TIME
AND AGREE.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WAVE WILL BRING MORE OF A THREAT OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT NOT MUCH RAIN.  THE FORECAST KEEPS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTN/EVE AND WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE.  DUE
TO THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN OR/WA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...I WILL
KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST BUT WONDER IF THE GFS MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BRING WEAK VORTICITY
LOBES AND "BLOBS" OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ODD.  CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED IS LOW.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...AN UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
THURSDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING NEAR KALW AND
KPDT THROUGH 24/08 UTC. A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KDLS AND KYKM AS
WELL OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE VFR WITH LOWEST CIGS BETWEEN 4500 AND
7000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AT KPSC, KALW AND
KPDT. MOST SITES WILL SEE WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KTS THURSDAY WITH
STRONGEST WINDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  50  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  78  55  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  82  54  85  55 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  77  53  83  55 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  80  52  85  53 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  73  50  80  50 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  73  39  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  72  44  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  74  46  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  76  55  83  56 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/85/85









000
FXUS65 KBOI 240842
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
242 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
NE FROM WASHINGTON INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL
LEAVE OUR AREA IN DRY WSW FLOW. AFTER YDAY/S COLD FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST FOLKS. THE WARM-UP WILL BEGIN FRIDAY...WITH
VALLEY TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 80S. WINDS TODAY IN THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WILL BE MODERATE OUT OF THE SW...AT 10-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THESE WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET AND
WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 MPH WEAKER. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT BOTH DAYS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AS DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE MONSOON MOISTURE
RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY...AND THEN STAY RELATIVELY CONSTANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE DRAWN
UP OVER THE AREA...WHICH SUPPORTS A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY
AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS...MAINLY EAST OF KBOI...ESPECIALLY AFT
18Z. WINDS ALOFT WEST 20 TO 30 KTS AT 10K FT MSL...DECREASING TO 10-
15 KTS AFT 00Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....TB
AVIATION.....TB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 240842
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
242 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
NE FROM WASHINGTON INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL
LEAVE OUR AREA IN DRY WSW FLOW. AFTER YDAY/S COLD FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST FOLKS. THE WARM-UP WILL BEGIN FRIDAY...WITH
VALLEY TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 80S. WINDS TODAY IN THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WILL BE MODERATE OUT OF THE SW...AT 10-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THESE WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET AND
WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 MPH WEAKER. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT BOTH DAYS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AS DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE MONSOON MOISTURE
RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY...AND THEN STAY RELATIVELY CONSTANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE DRAWN
UP OVER THE AREA...WHICH SUPPORTS A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY
AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS...MAINLY EAST OF KBOI...ESPECIALLY AFT
18Z. WINDS ALOFT WEST 20 TO 30 KTS AT 10K FT MSL...DECREASING TO 10-
15 KTS AFT 00Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....TB
AVIATION.....TB




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240546
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1045 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS UPDATED

.UPDATE...
A COUPLE OF UPDATES WERE MADE THIS EVENING. THE FIRST WAS TO
CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ON THE EAST SIDE JUST AFTER 8 PM PDT.
THE SECOND WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN ACROSS THE EAST SIDE THIS EVENING
AND, WHILE WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY, THEY ARE DIMINISHING.
THEREFORE, THE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

SKY COVER IS HANGING ON ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND THE BETTER
PERFORMING NAM GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO A BIT
LONGER UNTIL FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE AROUND 12Z / 5AM PDT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/06Z TAFS...
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION FROM A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW TO A
SUBSIDENT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. CLOUDS THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE OREGON
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT,
DIMINISHING SOME TOWARD AND AFTER SUNRISE AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
BEGINS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR COAST TOWARD MORNING, BUT
ANTICIPATE MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS, TO REMAIN PRIMARILY
VFR. BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BECOME VFR
UNDER A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND WARMER AIR MASS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 815 PM PDT 23 JULY 2014...
A THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY THEN LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND SUNDAY
WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENING...RESULTING IN DECREASED WINDS AND
WIND WAVES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
OUR AREA QUICKLY FELL APART AS IT ENCOUNTERED THE CASCADES, WHICH
WAS EXPECTED. NOW SHOWERS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AS
DEEP, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
OBSERVATIONS SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW MEASURABLE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST AND THE UMPQUA, BUT FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ROGUE, SHOWERS ARE
MUCH SPOTTIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE ISN`T MUCH INSTABILITY LEFT AS THE MAIN BULK OF
THE DYNAMICS AND COLD AIR ALOFT ARE WELL TO OUR NORTH, BUT WE
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING OVER THE
EAST SIDE. YESTERDAY`S LIGHTNING RESULTED IN A LOT OF FIRE STARTS
OVER NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES, AND EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LOW, GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE ANY
REMAINING FIRES TO SPREAD. WE HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT
FOR THIS REASON AND THAT LASTS THROUGH THE EVENING.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, AND IT WILL BE A RATHER
COOL NIGHT FOR JULY AREA WIDE. DUE TO ALL THE MOISTURE, WE MAY
SEE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
TONIGHT, BUT NIGHTS ARE SHORT AND DIDN`T FEEL IT WAS WORTH
PUTTING IN THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT CAUSED ALL THIS WEATHER WILL ZIP EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES PRETTY QUICKLY TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, WE WILL
WARM UP AND DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOMORROW, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK
TO NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COOS COAST AND OVER THE WATERS, AND HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL ALL LOCATIONS. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 100F IN MEDFORD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS
LIKE MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (102F IN
MEDFORD, FOR EXAMPLE).

THE MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBANCES MOVING UP THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY PRESENT OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES, SO ATTEMPTING TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFICS WOULD BE FUTILE. THUS WE SIMPLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS PAINTED ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. THERE IS CONSISTENCY
IS THE IDEA OF IT STAYING RATHER HOT NEXT WEEK, THOUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM PDT
  SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO
  3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ356-370-376.
- GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ376.

$$

BTL/TRW/SBN










000
FXUS66 KMFR 240546
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1045 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS UPDATED

.UPDATE...
A COUPLE OF UPDATES WERE MADE THIS EVENING. THE FIRST WAS TO
CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ON THE EAST SIDE JUST AFTER 8 PM PDT.
THE SECOND WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN ACROSS THE EAST SIDE THIS EVENING
AND, WHILE WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY, THEY ARE DIMINISHING.
THEREFORE, THE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

SKY COVER IS HANGING ON ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND THE BETTER
PERFORMING NAM GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO A BIT
LONGER UNTIL FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE AROUND 12Z / 5AM PDT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/06Z TAFS...
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION FROM A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW TO A
SUBSIDENT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. CLOUDS THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE OREGON
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT,
DIMINISHING SOME TOWARD AND AFTER SUNRISE AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
BEGINS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR COAST TOWARD MORNING, BUT
ANTICIPATE MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS, TO REMAIN PRIMARILY
VFR. BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BECOME VFR
UNDER A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND WARMER AIR MASS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 815 PM PDT 23 JULY 2014...
A THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY THEN LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND SUNDAY
WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENING...RESULTING IN DECREASED WINDS AND
WIND WAVES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
OUR AREA QUICKLY FELL APART AS IT ENCOUNTERED THE CASCADES, WHICH
WAS EXPECTED. NOW SHOWERS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AS
DEEP, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
OBSERVATIONS SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW MEASURABLE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST AND THE UMPQUA, BUT FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ROGUE, SHOWERS ARE
MUCH SPOTTIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE ISN`T MUCH INSTABILITY LEFT AS THE MAIN BULK OF
THE DYNAMICS AND COLD AIR ALOFT ARE WELL TO OUR NORTH, BUT WE
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING OVER THE
EAST SIDE. YESTERDAY`S LIGHTNING RESULTED IN A LOT OF FIRE STARTS
OVER NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES, AND EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LOW, GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE ANY
REMAINING FIRES TO SPREAD. WE HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT
FOR THIS REASON AND THAT LASTS THROUGH THE EVENING.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, AND IT WILL BE A RATHER
COOL NIGHT FOR JULY AREA WIDE. DUE TO ALL THE MOISTURE, WE MAY
SEE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
TONIGHT, BUT NIGHTS ARE SHORT AND DIDN`T FEEL IT WAS WORTH
PUTTING IN THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT CAUSED ALL THIS WEATHER WILL ZIP EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES PRETTY QUICKLY TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, WE WILL
WARM UP AND DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOMORROW, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK
TO NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COOS COAST AND OVER THE WATERS, AND HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL ALL LOCATIONS. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 100F IN MEDFORD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS
LIKE MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (102F IN
MEDFORD, FOR EXAMPLE).

THE MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBANCES MOVING UP THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY PRESENT OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES, SO ATTEMPTING TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFICS WOULD BE FUTILE. THUS WE SIMPLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS PAINTED ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. THERE IS CONSISTENCY
IS THE IDEA OF IT STAYING RATHER HOT NEXT WEEK, THOUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM PDT
  SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO
  3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ356-370-376.
- GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ376.

$$

BTL/TRW/SBN










000
FXUS66 KMFR 240546
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1045 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS UPDATED

.UPDATE...
A COUPLE OF UPDATES WERE MADE THIS EVENING. THE FIRST WAS TO
CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ON THE EAST SIDE JUST AFTER 8 PM PDT.
THE SECOND WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN ACROSS THE EAST SIDE THIS EVENING
AND, WHILE WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY, THEY ARE DIMINISHING.
THEREFORE, THE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

SKY COVER IS HANGING ON ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND THE BETTER
PERFORMING NAM GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO A BIT
LONGER UNTIL FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE AROUND 12Z / 5AM PDT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/06Z TAFS...
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION FROM A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW TO A
SUBSIDENT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. CLOUDS THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE OREGON
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT,
DIMINISHING SOME TOWARD AND AFTER SUNRISE AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
BEGINS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR COAST TOWARD MORNING, BUT
ANTICIPATE MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS, TO REMAIN PRIMARILY
VFR. BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BECOME VFR
UNDER A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND WARMER AIR MASS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 815 PM PDT 23 JULY 2014...
A THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY THEN LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND SUNDAY
WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENING...RESULTING IN DECREASED WINDS AND
WIND WAVES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
OUR AREA QUICKLY FELL APART AS IT ENCOUNTERED THE CASCADES, WHICH
WAS EXPECTED. NOW SHOWERS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AS
DEEP, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
OBSERVATIONS SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW MEASURABLE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST AND THE UMPQUA, BUT FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ROGUE, SHOWERS ARE
MUCH SPOTTIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE ISN`T MUCH INSTABILITY LEFT AS THE MAIN BULK OF
THE DYNAMICS AND COLD AIR ALOFT ARE WELL TO OUR NORTH, BUT WE
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING OVER THE
EAST SIDE. YESTERDAY`S LIGHTNING RESULTED IN A LOT OF FIRE STARTS
OVER NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES, AND EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LOW, GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE ANY
REMAINING FIRES TO SPREAD. WE HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT
FOR THIS REASON AND THAT LASTS THROUGH THE EVENING.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, AND IT WILL BE A RATHER
COOL NIGHT FOR JULY AREA WIDE. DUE TO ALL THE MOISTURE, WE MAY
SEE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
TONIGHT, BUT NIGHTS ARE SHORT AND DIDN`T FEEL IT WAS WORTH
PUTTING IN THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT CAUSED ALL THIS WEATHER WILL ZIP EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES PRETTY QUICKLY TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, WE WILL
WARM UP AND DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOMORROW, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK
TO NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COOS COAST AND OVER THE WATERS, AND HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL ALL LOCATIONS. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 100F IN MEDFORD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS
LIKE MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (102F IN
MEDFORD, FOR EXAMPLE).

THE MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBANCES MOVING UP THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY PRESENT OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES, SO ATTEMPTING TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFICS WOULD BE FUTILE. THUS WE SIMPLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS PAINTED ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. THERE IS CONSISTENCY
IS THE IDEA OF IT STAYING RATHER HOT NEXT WEEK, THOUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM PDT
  SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO
  3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ356-370-376.
- GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ376.

$$

BTL/TRW/SBN










000
FXUS66 KMFR 240546
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1045 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS UPDATED

.UPDATE...
A COUPLE OF UPDATES WERE MADE THIS EVENING. THE FIRST WAS TO
CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ON THE EAST SIDE JUST AFTER 8 PM PDT.
THE SECOND WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN ACROSS THE EAST SIDE THIS EVENING
AND, WHILE WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY, THEY ARE DIMINISHING.
THEREFORE, THE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

SKY COVER IS HANGING ON ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND THE BETTER
PERFORMING NAM GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO A BIT
LONGER UNTIL FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE AROUND 12Z / 5AM PDT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/06Z TAFS...
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION FROM A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW TO A
SUBSIDENT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. CLOUDS THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE OREGON
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT,
DIMINISHING SOME TOWARD AND AFTER SUNRISE AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
BEGINS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR COAST TOWARD MORNING, BUT
ANTICIPATE MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS, TO REMAIN PRIMARILY
VFR. BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BECOME VFR
UNDER A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND WARMER AIR MASS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 815 PM PDT 23 JULY 2014...
A THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY THEN LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND SUNDAY
WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENING...RESULTING IN DECREASED WINDS AND
WIND WAVES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
OUR AREA QUICKLY FELL APART AS IT ENCOUNTERED THE CASCADES, WHICH
WAS EXPECTED. NOW SHOWERS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AS
DEEP, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
OBSERVATIONS SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW MEASURABLE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST AND THE UMPQUA, BUT FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ROGUE, SHOWERS ARE
MUCH SPOTTIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE ISN`T MUCH INSTABILITY LEFT AS THE MAIN BULK OF
THE DYNAMICS AND COLD AIR ALOFT ARE WELL TO OUR NORTH, BUT WE
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING OVER THE
EAST SIDE. YESTERDAY`S LIGHTNING RESULTED IN A LOT OF FIRE STARTS
OVER NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES, AND EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LOW, GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE ANY
REMAINING FIRES TO SPREAD. WE HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT
FOR THIS REASON AND THAT LASTS THROUGH THE EVENING.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, AND IT WILL BE A RATHER
COOL NIGHT FOR JULY AREA WIDE. DUE TO ALL THE MOISTURE, WE MAY
SEE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
TONIGHT, BUT NIGHTS ARE SHORT AND DIDN`T FEEL IT WAS WORTH
PUTTING IN THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT CAUSED ALL THIS WEATHER WILL ZIP EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES PRETTY QUICKLY TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, WE WILL
WARM UP AND DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOMORROW, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK
TO NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COOS COAST AND OVER THE WATERS, AND HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL ALL LOCATIONS. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 100F IN MEDFORD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS
LIKE MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (102F IN
MEDFORD, FOR EXAMPLE).

THE MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBANCES MOVING UP THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY PRESENT OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES, SO ATTEMPTING TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFICS WOULD BE FUTILE. THUS WE SIMPLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS PAINTED ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. THERE IS CONSISTENCY
IS THE IDEA OF IT STAYING RATHER HOT NEXT WEEK, THOUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM PDT
  SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO
  3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ356-370-376.
- GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ376.

$$

BTL/TRW/SBN










000
FXUS66 KPDT 240524 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1024 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...UPDATE...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST
CONTINUES TO SPIN TOWARDS SHORE THIS EVENING. A STRONG DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO CANADA AND MONTANA. A WEAKER WAVE IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON. THIS WEAKER WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AIR MASS THAT IS
LESS UNSTABLE DUE TO THE STABILIZING AFFECTS BEHIND THE STRONG
DISTURBANCE AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS SUCH, MAINLY EXPECT
SHOWERS WITH THIS WAVE, THOUGH A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO INDICATE THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HAD DROPPED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. EXPECT A
FURTHER UPDATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO TO REMOVE THUNDER AND
LOWER SHOWER COVERAGES. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA AND A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT IF ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AS THE WAVE TRAVELS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
BUT AGAIN...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO AND
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING NEAR KALW AND KPDT THROUGH 24/08 UTC. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KDLS AND KYKM AS WELL OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE
VFR WITH LOWEST CIGS BETWEEN 4500 AND 7000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL RUN 10
TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. MOST SITES WILL SEE
WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KTS THURSDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. 90

&&

.FIRE WX...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM AREA MOVED QUICKLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BANDS OF MOISTURE
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY
AND WILL DECREASE FURTHER AFTER SUNSET. THUS ONLY A FEW STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET, THEN EXPECT ONLY SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING. 90

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  78  49  83 /  30  10   0   0
ALW  55  78  54  83 /  40  10   0   0
PSC  56  82  52  85 /  30  10   0   0
YKM  52  77  51  83 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  54  80  51  86 /  30  10   0   0
ELN  50  73  49  80 /  30  10  10  10
RDM  37  73  39  81 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  48  72  43  79 /  30  10   0   0
GCD  46  74  43  82 /  20   0   0   0
DLS  55  76  53  84 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/90






000
FXUS66 KPDT 240524 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1024 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...UPDATE...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST
CONTINUES TO SPIN TOWARDS SHORE THIS EVENING. A STRONG DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO CANADA AND MONTANA. A WEAKER WAVE IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON. THIS WEAKER WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AIR MASS THAT IS
LESS UNSTABLE DUE TO THE STABILIZING AFFECTS BEHIND THE STRONG
DISTURBANCE AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS SUCH, MAINLY EXPECT
SHOWERS WITH THIS WAVE, THOUGH A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO INDICATE THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HAD DROPPED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. EXPECT A
FURTHER UPDATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO TO REMOVE THUNDER AND
LOWER SHOWER COVERAGES. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA AND A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT IF ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AS THE WAVE TRAVELS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
BUT AGAIN...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO AND
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING NEAR KALW AND KPDT THROUGH 24/08 UTC. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KDLS AND KYKM AS WELL OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE
VFR WITH LOWEST CIGS BETWEEN 4500 AND 7000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL RUN 10
TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. MOST SITES WILL SEE
WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KTS THURSDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. 90

&&

.FIRE WX...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM AREA MOVED QUICKLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BANDS OF MOISTURE
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY
AND WILL DECREASE FURTHER AFTER SUNSET. THUS ONLY A FEW STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET, THEN EXPECT ONLY SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING. 90

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  78  49  83 /  30  10   0   0
ALW  55  78  54  83 /  40  10   0   0
PSC  56  82  52  85 /  30  10   0   0
YKM  52  77  51  83 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  54  80  51  86 /  30  10   0   0
ELN  50  73  49  80 /  30  10  10  10
RDM  37  73  39  81 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  48  72  43  79 /  30  10   0   0
GCD  46  74  43  82 /  20   0   0   0
DLS  55  76  53  84 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/90







000
FXUS66 KMFR 240417
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
917 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
A COUPLE OF UPDATES WERE MADE THIS EVENING. THE FIRST WAS TO
CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ON THE EAST SIDE JUST AFTER 8 PM PDT.
THE SECOND WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN ACROSS THE EAST SIDE THIS EVENING
AND, WHILE WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY, THEY ARE DIMINISHING.
THEREFORE, THE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

SKY COVER IS HANGING ON ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND THE BETTER
PERFORMING NAM GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO A BIT
LONGER UNTIL FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE AROUND 12Z / 5AM PDT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAFS...
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST WILL LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT...WHILE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ON
WEST FACING SLOPES...AND THEN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. GUSTY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BECOME VFR UNDER A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND WARMER
AIR MASS. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 205 PM PDT 23 JULY 2014...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY THEN LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AT THE COAST THURSDAY WITH
GALES DEVELOPING IN THE OUTER WATERS QUICKLY BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND SUNDAY WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH WEAKENING...RESULTING IN DECREASED WINDS AND WIND WAVES INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
OUR AREA QUICKLY FELL APART AS IT ENCOUNTERED THE CASCADES, WHICH
WAS EXPECTED. NOW SHOWERS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AS
DEEP, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
OBSERVATIONS SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW MEASURABLE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST AND THE UMPQUA, BUT FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ROGUE, SHOWERS ARE
MUCH SPOTTIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE ISN`T MUCH INSTABILITY LEFT AS THE MAIN BULK OF
THE DYNAMICS AND COLD AIR ALOFT ARE WELL TO OUR NORTH, BUT WE
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING OVER THE
EAST SIDE. YESTERDAY`S LIGHTNING RESULTED IN A LOT OF FIRE STARTS
OVER NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES, AND EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LOW, GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE ANY
REMAINING FIRES TO SPREAD. WE HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT
FOR THIS REASON AND THAT LASTS THROUGH THE EVENING.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, AND IT WILL BE A RATHER
COOL NIGHT FOR JULY AREA WIDE. DUE TO ALL THE MOISTURE, WE MAY
SEE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
TONIGHT, BUT NIGHTS ARE SHORT AND DIDN`T FEEL IT WAS WORTH
PUTTING IN THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT CAUSED ALL THIS WEATHER WILL ZIP EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES PRETTY QUICKLY TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, WE WILL
WARM UP AND DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOMORROW, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK
TO NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COOS COAST AND OVER THE WATERS, AND HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL ALL LOCATIONS. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 100F IN MEDFORD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS
LIKE MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (102F IN
MEDFORD, FOR EXAMPLE).

THE MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBANCES MOVING UP THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY PRESENT OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES, SO ATTEMPTING TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFICS WOULD BE FUTILE. THUS WE SIMPLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS PAINTED ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. THERE IS CONSISTENCY
IS THE IDEA OF IT STAYING RATHER HOT NEXT WEEK, THOUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 3
     PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/TRW/SBN






000
FXUS66 KMFR 240417
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
917 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
A COUPLE OF UPDATES WERE MADE THIS EVENING. THE FIRST WAS TO
CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ON THE EAST SIDE JUST AFTER 8 PM PDT.
THE SECOND WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN ACROSS THE EAST SIDE THIS EVENING
AND, WHILE WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY, THEY ARE DIMINISHING.
THEREFORE, THE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

SKY COVER IS HANGING ON ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND THE BETTER
PERFORMING NAM GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO A BIT
LONGER UNTIL FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE AROUND 12Z / 5AM PDT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAFS...
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST WILL LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT...WHILE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ON
WEST FACING SLOPES...AND THEN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. GUSTY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BECOME VFR UNDER A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND WARMER
AIR MASS. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 205 PM PDT 23 JULY 2014...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY THEN LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AT THE COAST THURSDAY WITH
GALES DEVELOPING IN THE OUTER WATERS QUICKLY BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND SUNDAY WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH WEAKENING...RESULTING IN DECREASED WINDS AND WIND WAVES INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
OUR AREA QUICKLY FELL APART AS IT ENCOUNTERED THE CASCADES, WHICH
WAS EXPECTED. NOW SHOWERS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AS
DEEP, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
OBSERVATIONS SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW MEASURABLE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST AND THE UMPQUA, BUT FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ROGUE, SHOWERS ARE
MUCH SPOTTIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE ISN`T MUCH INSTABILITY LEFT AS THE MAIN BULK OF
THE DYNAMICS AND COLD AIR ALOFT ARE WELL TO OUR NORTH, BUT WE
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING OVER THE
EAST SIDE. YESTERDAY`S LIGHTNING RESULTED IN A LOT OF FIRE STARTS
OVER NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES, AND EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LOW, GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE ANY
REMAINING FIRES TO SPREAD. WE HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT
FOR THIS REASON AND THAT LASTS THROUGH THE EVENING.

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, AND IT WILL BE A RATHER
COOL NIGHT FOR JULY AREA WIDE. DUE TO ALL THE MOISTURE, WE MAY
SEE SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
TONIGHT, BUT NIGHTS ARE SHORT AND DIDN`T FEEL IT WAS WORTH
PUTTING IN THE GRIDS.

THE UPPER LOW THAT CAUSED ALL THIS WEATHER WILL ZIP EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES PRETTY QUICKLY TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, WE WILL
WARM UP AND DRY OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TOMORROW, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK
TO NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER BY FRIDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COOS COAST AND OVER THE WATERS, AND HIGHS WILL JUMP BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL ALL LOCATIONS. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 100F IN MEDFORD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS
LIKE MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (102F IN
MEDFORD, FOR EXAMPLE).

THE MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBANCES MOVING UP THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY PRESENT OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES, SO ATTEMPTING TO NAIL DOWN
SPECIFICS WOULD BE FUTILE. THUS WE SIMPLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS PAINTED ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. THERE IS CONSISTENCY
IS THE IDEA OF IT STAYING RATHER HOT NEXT WEEK, THOUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 3
     PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/TRW/SBN







000
FXUS66 KPQR 240353
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  WILL
MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ...PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THURSDAY...BEFORE
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY...BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED AROUND 100
MILES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CENTER MOVING OVER THE SW WASHINGTON. THERE ARE
ALSO SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MOVING ACROSS
NW OREGON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN ISOLATED STORM
POPS UP ALONG THE NORTHER OREGON COAST OR COAST RANGE THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE SW
WASHINGTON CASCADES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN
SOME WARMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH INITIALLY QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME
MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80
AGAIN INLAND. THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AS 500
MB HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AT LEAST THE MID 580S...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING
CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR INLAND HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 90 IN SOME AREAS. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. A SECOND
ROUND OF MORE CONSOLIDATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ON THE
COAST WILL LIKE ALLOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AT
KAST. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPACT KONP AND PERHAPS THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES
CLOSER TO 12Z THURSDAY. ANY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAT DO
DEVELOP SHOULD BECOME VFR TOWARDS 18Z TO 20Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SPINNING
OFF WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL INCH ITS WAY CLOSER OVERNIGHT...AND
SPREAD ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZING A BIT AND PERHAPS AN UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWERS...A PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN PRIMARILY 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A BENT BACK OCCLUSION IS BRINGING SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT BEFORE EASING BELOW 20 KT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER DAWN.

THESE WINDS ARE ALSO CREATING A FRESH SWELL THAT IS INCREASING
INTO THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE...AND MAY EVEN BRIEFLY TOUCH 10 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. REGARDLESS...DOMINANT PERIODS WILL ALSO HOVER IN
THE 7 TO 9 SECOND RANGE...MEANING SEAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY STEEP
AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER THURSDAY
MORNING.

A ROUGH BAR FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ALSO HOISTED FOR THE EBB LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE BASED ON SEA TRENDS VS MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE SETUP TONIGHT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO AN EVENT A
COUPLE WEEKS AGO THAT RESULTED IN A FISHING BOAT CAPSIZING ON THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     6 AM PDT THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 240353
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  WILL
MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ...PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THURSDAY...BEFORE
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY...BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED AROUND 100
MILES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CENTER MOVING OVER THE SW WASHINGTON. THERE ARE
ALSO SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MOVING ACROSS
NW OREGON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN ISOLATED STORM
POPS UP ALONG THE NORTHER OREGON COAST OR COAST RANGE THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE SW
WASHINGTON CASCADES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN
SOME WARMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH INITIALLY QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME
MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80
AGAIN INLAND. THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AS 500
MB HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AT LEAST THE MID 580S...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING
CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR INLAND HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 90 IN SOME AREAS. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. A SECOND
ROUND OF MORE CONSOLIDATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ON THE
COAST WILL LIKE ALLOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AT
KAST. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPACT KONP AND PERHAPS THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES
CLOSER TO 12Z THURSDAY. ANY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAT DO
DEVELOP SHOULD BECOME VFR TOWARDS 18Z TO 20Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SPINNING
OFF WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL INCH ITS WAY CLOSER OVERNIGHT...AND
SPREAD ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZING A BIT AND PERHAPS AN UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWERS...A PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN PRIMARILY 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A BENT BACK OCCLUSION IS BRINGING SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT BEFORE EASING BELOW 20 KT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER DAWN.

THESE WINDS ARE ALSO CREATING A FRESH SWELL THAT IS INCREASING
INTO THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE...AND MAY EVEN BRIEFLY TOUCH 10 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. REGARDLESS...DOMINANT PERIODS WILL ALSO HOVER IN
THE 7 TO 9 SECOND RANGE...MEANING SEAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY STEEP
AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER THURSDAY
MORNING.

A ROUGH BAR FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ALSO HOISTED FOR THE EBB LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE BASED ON SEA TRENDS VS MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE SETUP TONIGHT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO AN EVENT A
COUPLE WEEKS AGO THAT RESULTED IN A FISHING BOAT CAPSIZING ON THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     6 AM PDT THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240353
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  WILL
MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ...PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THURSDAY...BEFORE
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY...BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED AROUND 100
MILES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CENTER MOVING OVER THE SW WASHINGTON. THERE ARE
ALSO SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MOVING ACROSS
NW OREGON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN ISOLATED STORM
POPS UP ALONG THE NORTHER OREGON COAST OR COAST RANGE THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE SW
WASHINGTON CASCADES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN
SOME WARMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH INITIALLY QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME
MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80
AGAIN INLAND. THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AS 500
MB HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AT LEAST THE MID 580S...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING
CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR INLAND HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 90 IN SOME AREAS. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. A SECOND
ROUND OF MORE CONSOLIDATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ON THE
COAST WILL LIKE ALLOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AT
KAST. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPACT KONP AND PERHAPS THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES
CLOSER TO 12Z THURSDAY. ANY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAT DO
DEVELOP SHOULD BECOME VFR TOWARDS 18Z TO 20Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SPINNING
OFF WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL INCH ITS WAY CLOSER OVERNIGHT...AND
SPREAD ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZING A BIT AND PERHAPS AN UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWERS...A PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN PRIMARILY 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A BENT BACK OCCLUSION IS BRINGING SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT BEFORE EASING BELOW 20 KT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER DAWN.

THESE WINDS ARE ALSO CREATING A FRESH SWELL THAT IS INCREASING
INTO THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE...AND MAY EVEN BRIEFLY TOUCH 10 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. REGARDLESS...DOMINANT PERIODS WILL ALSO HOVER IN
THE 7 TO 9 SECOND RANGE...MEANING SEAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY STEEP
AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER THURSDAY
MORNING.

A ROUGH BAR FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ALSO HOISTED FOR THE EBB LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE BASED ON SEA TRENDS VS MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE SETUP TONIGHT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO AN EVENT A
COUPLE WEEKS AGO THAT RESULTED IN A FISHING BOAT CAPSIZING ON THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     6 AM PDT THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240353
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  WILL
MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ...PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THURSDAY...BEFORE
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY...BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED AROUND 100
MILES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CENTER MOVING OVER THE SW WASHINGTON. THERE ARE
ALSO SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MOVING ACROSS
NW OREGON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN ISOLATED STORM
POPS UP ALONG THE NORTHER OREGON COAST OR COAST RANGE THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE SW
WASHINGTON CASCADES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN
SOME WARMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH INITIALLY QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME
MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80
AGAIN INLAND. THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AS 500
MB HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AT LEAST THE MID 580S...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING
CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR INLAND HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 90 IN SOME AREAS. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. A SECOND
ROUND OF MORE CONSOLIDATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ON THE
COAST WILL LIKE ALLOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AT
KAST. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPACT KONP AND PERHAPS THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES
CLOSER TO 12Z THURSDAY. ANY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAT DO
DEVELOP SHOULD BECOME VFR TOWARDS 18Z TO 20Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SPINNING
OFF WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL INCH ITS WAY CLOSER OVERNIGHT...AND
SPREAD ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZING A BIT AND PERHAPS AN UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWERS...A PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN PRIMARILY 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A BENT BACK OCCLUSION IS BRINGING SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT BEFORE EASING BELOW 20 KT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER DAWN.

THESE WINDS ARE ALSO CREATING A FRESH SWELL THAT IS INCREASING
INTO THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE...AND MAY EVEN BRIEFLY TOUCH 10 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. REGARDLESS...DOMINANT PERIODS WILL ALSO HOVER IN
THE 7 TO 9 SECOND RANGE...MEANING SEAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY STEEP
AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER THURSDAY
MORNING.

A ROUGH BAR FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ALSO HOISTED FOR THE EBB LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE BASED ON SEA TRENDS VS MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE SETUP TONIGHT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO AN EVENT A
COUPLE WEEKS AGO THAT RESULTED IN A FISHING BOAT CAPSIZING ON THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     6 AM PDT THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240353
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  WILL
MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ...PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THURSDAY...BEFORE
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY...BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED AROUND 100
MILES OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CENTER MOVING OVER THE SW WASHINGTON. THERE ARE
ALSO SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MOVING ACROSS
NW OREGON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN ISOLATED STORM
POPS UP ALONG THE NORTHER OREGON COAST OR COAST RANGE THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE SW
WASHINGTON CASCADES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN
SOME WARMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

AN UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH INITIALLY QUITE FLAT...WILL SLOWLY START TO
MOVE IN FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WITH SOME
MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL FINALLY APPROACH 80
AGAIN INLAND. THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AS 500
MB HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AT LEAST THE MID 580S...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER SOME BRIEF MORNING
CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE NORTH. LOOK FOR INLAND HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO 90 IN SOME AREAS. TJ/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.THE WAVE IS UNRESOLVED IN THE MEAN 500-MB HEIGHT
FIELD FROM GEFS AND NAEFS...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE IT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN AMPLITUDE AND WESTWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MID-WEEK.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. A SECOND
ROUND OF MORE CONSOLIDATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ON THE
COAST WILL LIKE ALLOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AT
KAST. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPACT KONP AND PERHAPS THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES
CLOSER TO 12Z THURSDAY. ANY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAT DO
DEVELOP SHOULD BECOME VFR TOWARDS 18Z TO 20Z THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SPINNING
OFF WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL INCH ITS WAY CLOSER OVERNIGHT...AND
SPREAD ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZING A BIT AND PERHAPS AN UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWERS...A PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN PRIMARILY 12Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY. /NEUMAN
&&

.MARINE...A BENT BACK OCCLUSION IS BRINGING SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT BEFORE EASING BELOW 20 KT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER DAWN.

THESE WINDS ARE ALSO CREATING A FRESH SWELL THAT IS INCREASING
INTO THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE...AND MAY EVEN BRIEFLY TOUCH 10 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. REGARDLESS...DOMINANT PERIODS WILL ALSO HOVER IN
THE 7 TO 9 SECOND RANGE...MEANING SEAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY STEEP
AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER THURSDAY
MORNING.

A ROUGH BAR FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WAS ALSO HOISTED FOR THE EBB LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE BASED ON SEA TRENDS VS MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE SETUP TONIGHT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO AN EVENT A
COUPLE WEEKS AGO THAT RESULTED IN A FISHING BOAT CAPSIZING ON THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY STEEP SEAS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO
     6 AM PDT THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




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