Home > Products > State Listing > Oregon Data
Latest:
 AFDPQR |  AFDPDT |  AFDBOI |  AFDMFR |
  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPDT 250542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1042 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...A RAPIDLY CHANGING EVENING OF WEATHER IS UNDERWAY. A WARM
FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH AND WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN RAIN END. TO THE SOUTH, SKIES CLEARED OUT
RAPIDLY AND TEMPERATURES TUMBLED. FOG HAS FORMED IN PLACES, MAINLY
AROUND BEND, REDMOND, MADRAS AND CONDON. BEND AND REDMOND HAVE BEEN
DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY AT TIMES, BUT ANTICIPATE
IMPROVEMENT AS THE WIND SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH AND HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED A COUPLE OF TEMPERATURES THAT WERE
NEAR THE FORECAST LOW FOR THE NIGHT. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ONCE TO
CLEAR RAIN FROM PLACES WHERE THE FRONTAL PRECIP BAND HAD PASSED.
WILL LIKELY DO SO AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...TAFS WERE CHALLENGING TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
EXITED THE AREA, SKIES CLEARED ASIDE FROM BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPED AT KRDM, KBDN AND KALW. GUIDANCE HINTS THAT THE CURRENT
LIFR VSBY WILL IMPROVE AT KBDN AND KRDM AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASE THE DEW POINT SPREAD. HAVE WRITTEN THE TAFS TO IMPROVE
THERE BY 12Z. KALW HAS DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER MILE VSBY AS WELL AND
EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE WITH ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 16Z.
KPDT AND KPSC ARE SHOWING SOME DECLINES AND EXPECT THEM TO DROP TO
AT LEAST MVFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TOMORROW CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AND LOWER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR BUT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z AND
THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TONIGHT BUT WILL BEGIN INCREASING AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AFTER 21Z AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KDLS
AND KYKM WHICH WILL BE MORE SHELTERED FROM THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 402 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO END ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE IT SPREADS NORTH INTO OUR
WASHINGTON ZONES. BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
THE PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY,
ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON, AND PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. GRADIENTS
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND
DURING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH. THUS HAVE ISSUED
WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL GUST ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. ALSO WINDS WILL BECOME PERSISTENT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND LOWER BASIN. THUS HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MORE PRECIP TO THE
AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, RUNNING BETWEEN
4500 AND 5000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING
SUNDAY DUE TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS A WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY ON
TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA BECOME ENTRAINED IN A
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WILL
RANGE FROM 6000-8000 FEET AND WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE DIVERGING BY
DAY 7. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEY ALSO AGREE ON A CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY...BUT WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE RAIN INTO FRIDAY...THE
ECMWF QUICKLY PULLS THE PACIFIC LOW NORTHEASTWARD AND DRIES OUT THE
LOCAL AREA.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  66  45  58 /  10  20  30  20
ALW  47  66  48  57 /  40  20  40  30
PSC  45  63  48  63 /  60  20  30  20
YKM  42  56  42  57 /  80  30  50  20
HRI  42  64  46  62 /  20  20  30  20
ELN  41  58  41  56 /  80  40  50  20
RDM  39  63  37  54 /  10  20  40  20
LGD  43  66  44  53 /  10  20  40  40
GCD  42  64  42  53 /  10  20  40  30
DLS  45  60  46  58 /  60  50  60  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR LADD AND PYLES
     CANYONS IN THE ORZ049.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY WAZ028-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/82/83






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 250357
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
856 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WIND BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING
...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE WILL BE A SHORT DRYING PERIOD MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM TUESDAY. THE TUESDAY SYSTEM COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING
AND THE MAIN RAIN BAND IS NOW MOSTLY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. I
SAY MOSTLY...BECAUSE THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO TILT FROM SW TO NE AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW...CAUSING THE RAIN TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTH COAST...NORTH OF CANNON BEACH. THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT RAIN FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY BE
PUSHING ONSHORE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE STRECHING VERTICALLY
SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH MAY SPLIT AS THE PREVIOUS NAM MODELS WERE
SHOWING. THERE WAS FAIR UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WINDS OF THIS FORECAST
BEFORE AS THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER...BUT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM
MAY BE  THE GFS AND ECMWF. HAVE UPDATED THE WINDS TO
TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM WHICH HAS INCREASED THE WINDS A TAD FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL FLIRTING WITH WARNING CRITERIA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE VALLEY WINDS WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z GFS BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES
NOW...SINCE THERE IS SUCH A LARGE DISCREPANCY IN THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE LOW BETWEEN THE 00 NAM AND THE 18Z GFS. IF THE GFS COMES MORE
IN LINE WITH THE NAM THAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL STRENGTHEN...AND
THERE MAY BE THE NEED FOR SOME WIND PRODUCTS WITH THE MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE.

BACK TO RAIN...THE RAIN WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE TROUGH SPLITS THERE MAY BE
SOME AREAS ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE THE RAIN THAN
OTHERS. LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH SHOWS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
SEEING THE RAIN FIRST. RAIN SHOULD BE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CASCADES SATURDAY
EVENING WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS FILLING IN BEHIND IT...OVER THE COAST
TO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. GENERALLY EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
ALONG THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES FROM
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH AROUND 0.4 INCH FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND AROUND 0.6 INCH FOR THE OREGON CASCADES AND
CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAINTAIN
SHOWERS...AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO JUST ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES.
THIS TROUGH IS FAIRLY COOL WITH MODELED UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AROUND -25C. MODELED LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM...AND NEGATIVE LIS
INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWS
THE MAIN INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST BUT WESTERLY FLOW MAY CARRY ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WESTWARD. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT LOCAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET.

THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN
RAIN MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT MOIST FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT. TJ

.LONG TERM...THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WET WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ANA...THAT SKIRTED HAWAII LAST WEEK. MODELS MAY BE
UNDER DOING THE  POTENTIAL WITH THIS ONE. A STRONG JET
STREAM WILL REMAIN DIRECTED AT WA AND NRN OREGON THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW LARGE VARIATIONS BEGINNING WED...BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
AMPLIFIES THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH FASTER THAN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SHOWN FOR THIS EVENING...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE WARM
FRONT OVER THE SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW OREGON COAST. EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MIDDAY SAT. IFR/LIFR FOG OR LOW
STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THROUGH AT LEAST 06-08Z SAT...AND LOCALLY IN THE NORTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST BETWEEN 12-14Z SAT...AND INLAND
BETWEEN 14-16Z SAT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE AREA
AFTER 14Z SAT...STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE FOR
BRIEF MVFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS FROM 08-12Z SAT. RAIN AND GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14-16Z
SAT...WITH STRONGEST WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /27

&&

.MARINE...A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW
LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON SAT BEFORE
MOVING INLAND LATE SAT NIGHT. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO START LATE TONIGHT IN THE CENTRAL OR WATERS AND LAST
THROUGH SAT EVENING. IN THE NORTHERN OR AND SOUTHER WA
WATERS...EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS TO BEGIN EARLY SAT MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GALES
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING AT AROUND 15 FT SAT EVENING.

AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND...WINDS WILL BECOME W AND DECREASE WITH
SEAS LOWERING TO AROUND 7 TO 9 FT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE PAC
NW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT POSSIBLE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM
     SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250357
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
856 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WIND BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING
...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE WILL BE A SHORT DRYING PERIOD MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM TUESDAY. THE TUESDAY SYSTEM COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING
AND THE MAIN RAIN BAND IS NOW MOSTLY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. I
SAY MOSTLY...BECAUSE THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO TILT FROM SW TO NE AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW...CAUSING THE RAIN TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTH COAST...NORTH OF CANNON BEACH. THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT RAIN FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY BE
PUSHING ONSHORE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE STRECHING VERTICALLY
SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH MAY SPLIT AS THE PREVIOUS NAM MODELS WERE
SHOWING. THERE WAS FAIR UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WINDS OF THIS FORECAST
BEFORE AS THE NAM WAS THE OUTLIER...BUT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM
MAY BE  THE GFS AND ECMWF. HAVE UPDATED THE WINDS TO
TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM WHICH HAS INCREASED THE WINDS A TAD FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL FLIRTING WITH WARNING CRITERIA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE VALLEY WINDS WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z GFS BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES
NOW...SINCE THERE IS SUCH A LARGE DISCREPANCY IN THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE LOW BETWEEN THE 00 NAM AND THE 18Z GFS. IF THE GFS COMES MORE
IN LINE WITH THE NAM THAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL STRENGTHEN...AND
THERE MAY BE THE NEED FOR SOME WIND PRODUCTS WITH THE MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE.

BACK TO RAIN...THE RAIN WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE TROUGH SPLITS THERE MAY BE
SOME AREAS ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL BE SLOWER TO SEE THE RAIN THAN
OTHERS. LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH SHOWS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
SEEING THE RAIN FIRST. RAIN SHOULD BE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE CASCADES SATURDAY
EVENING WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS FILLING IN BEHIND IT...OVER THE COAST
TO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. GENERALLY EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
ALONG THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES FROM
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH AROUND 0.4 INCH FOR
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND AROUND 0.6 INCH FOR THE OREGON CASCADES AND
CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAINTAIN
SHOWERS...AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO JUST ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES.
THIS TROUGH IS FAIRLY COOL WITH MODELED UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AROUND -25C. MODELED LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM...AND NEGATIVE LIS
INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWS
THE MAIN INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST BUT WESTERLY FLOW MAY CARRY ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WESTWARD. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT LOCAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET.

THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN
RAIN MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT MOIST FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT. TJ

.LONG TERM...THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WET WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ANA...THAT SKIRTED HAWAII LAST WEEK. MODELS MAY BE
UNDER DOING THE  POTENTIAL WITH THIS ONE. A STRONG JET
STREAM WILL REMAIN DIRECTED AT WA AND NRN OREGON THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW LARGE VARIATIONS BEGINNING WED...BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
AMPLIFIES THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH FASTER THAN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SHOWN FOR THIS EVENING...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE WARM
FRONT OVER THE SW WASHINGTON AND FAR NW OREGON COAST. EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MIDDAY SAT. IFR/LIFR FOG OR LOW
STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THROUGH AT LEAST 06-08Z SAT...AND LOCALLY IN THE NORTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. RAIN RETURNS TO THE COAST BETWEEN 12-14Z SAT...AND INLAND
BETWEEN 14-16Z SAT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE AREA
AFTER 14Z SAT...STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE FOR
BRIEF MVFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS FROM 08-12Z SAT. RAIN AND GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14-16Z
SAT...WITH STRONGEST WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /27

&&

.MARINE...A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW
LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON SAT BEFORE
MOVING INLAND LATE SAT NIGHT. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO START LATE TONIGHT IN THE CENTRAL OR WATERS AND LAST
THROUGH SAT EVENING. IN THE NORTHERN OR AND SOUTHER WA
WATERS...EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS TO BEGIN EARLY SAT MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GALES
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING AT AROUND 15 FT SAT EVENING.

AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND...WINDS WILL BECOME W AND DECREASE WITH
SEAS LOWERING TO AROUND 7 TO 9 FT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE PAC
NW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT POSSIBLE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM
     SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPDT 250325
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
825 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...A RAPIDLY CHANGING EVENING OF WEATHER IS UNDERWAY. A WARM
FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH AND WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN RAIN END. TO THE SOUTH, SKIES CLEARED OUT
RAPIDLY AND TEMPERATURES TUMBLED. FOG HAS FORMED IN PLACES, MAINLY
AROUND BEND, REDMOND, MADRAS AND CONDON. BEND AND REDMOND HAVE BEEN
DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY AT TIMES, BUT ANTICIPATE
IMPROVEMENT AS THE WIND SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH AND HIGHER
CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED A COUPLE OF TEMPERATURES THAT WERE
NEAR THE FORECAST LOW FOR THE NIGHT. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ONCE TO
CLEAR RAIN FROM PLACES WHERE THE FRONTAL PRECIP BAND HAD PASSED.
WILL LIKELY DO SO AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 402 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO END ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE IT SPREADS NORTH INTO OUR
WASHINGTON ZONES. BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
THE PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY,
ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON, AND PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. GRADIENTS
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND
DURING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH. THUS HAVE ISSUED
WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL GUST ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. ALSO WINDS WILL BECOME PERSISTENT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND LOWER BASIN. THUS HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MORE PRECIP TO THE
AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, RUNNING BETWEEN
4500 AND 5000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING
SUNDAY DUE TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS A WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY ON
TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA BECOME ENTRAINED IN A
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WILL
RANGE FROM 6000-8000 FEET AND WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE DIVERGING BY
DAY 7. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEY ALSO AGREE ON A CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY...BUT WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE RAIN INTO FRIDAY...THE
ECMWF QUICKLY PULLS THE PACIFIC LOW NORTHEASTWARD AND DRIES OUT THE
LOCAL AREA.  COBB

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...FORECASTING CIGS AND VSBYS REMAINS A
CHALLENGE DUE TO THE COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INLAND. RAIN WILL
DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR AT KPDT...KALW...KDLS...KPSC
AND KYKM THIS EVENING. RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF KRDM AND KBDN. THERE
WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THAT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RADIATIONAL FOG AT
KPSC BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE CREATING
STRATUS CLOUDS AT KDLS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TOMORROW AND CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KBDN AND KRDM. STRONGER WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AFTER 26/00Z. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  66  45  58 /  10  20  30  20
ALW  47  66  48  57 /  40  20  40  30
PSC  45  63  48  63 /  60  20  30  20
YKM  42  56  42  57 /  80  30  50  20
HRI  42  64  46  62 /  20  20  30  20
ELN  41  58  41  56 /  80  40  50  20
RDM  39  63  37  54 /  10  20  40  20
LGD  43  66  44  53 /  10  20  40  40
GCD  42  64  42  53 /  10  20  40  30
DLS  45  60  46  58 /  60  50  60  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR LADD AND PYLES
     CANYONS IN THE ORZ049.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY WAZ028-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/82/82








  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 250318
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
918 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE PICS ARE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUD
COVER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. MORE OPEN VALLEYS
LIKE BAKER AND THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WILL SEE ENOUGH OF A
EASTERLY WIND TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING. SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN
LATEST FORECAST MODELS FOR WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER SE OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL SEE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG RIDGETOPS. FOR TONIGHT HAVE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO
THE SKY COVER...OTHERWISE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SFC WINDS SHOULD
KEEP ANY THREAT OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG AT BAY. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS ACROSS IDAHO WITH MODERATE SOUTH WINDS OVER
EASTERN OREGON. WINDS AOB 10KFT GENERALLY SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KTS
OVER ID AND SOUTHWEST 35 TO 50 KTS OVER EASTERN OREGON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS FROM BAKER
TO MCCALL ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM SOUTH TO THE NORTH
THIS EVENING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PULLS DRIER AIR OUT OF NEVADA. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BECOMING VERY WINDY IN
PORTIONS OF SE OREGON BY THE AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR HARNEY COUNTY AND MALHEUR COUNTY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL
ALSO DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE
TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO OUR
AREA...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE BOISE/WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SHADOWING EFFECTS WILL LIMIT THE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE TREASURE VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
ALONG A COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER AIR WITH VALLEYS HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST /ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SW IDAHO/ WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE 5000 FEET.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN OREGON
AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL GAIN AMPLITUDE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ON THURSDAY THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY...LEAVING
EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO UNDER A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /11 AM PDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/
     SATURDAY ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....CR
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 250300
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...25/00Z NAM IN.

A WARM FRONT MOVED NORTH THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA FRIDAY AND SKIES
MOSTLY CLEARED AFTER IT PASSED THROUGH. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS ARE
MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT...WHICH IS POISED TO
MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY. THE FREEZING LEVEL ROSE FROM 8600 FEET ON
THE 24/12Z KMFR SOUNDING TO 12600 FEET ON THE 25/00Z SOUNDING.

A SPLITTING LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE AROUND 133W.
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPED AHEAD OF IT AND THAT IS WHAT DROVE
THE WARM FRONT NORTH.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL PUSH A WET AND WINDY FRONT ONSHORE
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FROM STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS (STRONGEST IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS). BUT, IT WILL ALSO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF THE CASCADES
(AND LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE)...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY NEAR THE COAST)...AND UP TO 6 INCHES OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL START OFF AROUND 7000 FEET ON
SATURDAY...THEN FALL TO AROUND 5000 FEET WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH THE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN SPREAD INLAND SATURDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST. STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE UP TO
4 INCHES IN THE COASTAL RANGE OF CURRY COUNTY WITH UP TO 2 INCHES
ELSEWHERE IN CURRY...COOS...JOSEPHINE...AND WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. UP TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE ON THE WEST SIDE AND
GENERALLY UP TO A HALF INCH ON THE EAST SIDE.

POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE AREA...BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS WITH WEAK OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MONDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY BE FAIRLY COOL THOUGH.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS AT THE COAST NORTH OF NORTH BEND. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ALREADY BE MOVING IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG FRONT...WHICH
WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFD...TUESDAY
MORNING THOUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER WET SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE JET AXIS WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINING WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BRING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST SIDE WITH A WETTING RAIN POSSIBLE EAST
OF THE CASCADES IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS
WEAKENING OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FROM FRIDAY THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS VARY IN THE THE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF A CUTOFF
LOW BEYOND 130W...WITH THE ECMWF PUTTING THE LOW OFF OF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE GFS LOCATING IT OFF OF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER ON THE
FORECAST UP TO FRIDAY...AND LOWER NEXT WEEKEND. /SVEN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...WITH THE WARM FRONT
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING...ASIDE FROM KRBG AND THE UMPQUA VALLEY WHICH LINGER IN
MVFR OR IFR CIGS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BEGINNING
LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT, AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN MOST AREAS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE ROGUE VALLEY AND THE SHASTA
VALLEY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO SEE STRONG WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHILE AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL POTENTIALLY SEE SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE STRENGTHEN
CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT.

RAIN WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST AROUND 12 UTC, THEN SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS WILL SEE RAIN BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY,
ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND WITHIN AREAS
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AND EXTENSIVE. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT FRI 24 OCT 2014...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME, AND HOW
LONG THEY WILL PERSIST. WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECASTS BETWEEN
EUREKA AND NORTH BEND WOULD SUGGEST STORM FORCE WINDS UNDER USUAL
CIRCUMSTANCES, THE FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
COAST, AND THIS WILL KEEP WINDS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN WE WOULD
TYPICALLY SEE WITH THIS STRONG OF A SYSTEM. WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST
AND BEGIN TO EASE IN THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT AT LEAST 12-18 HOURS
OF STRONG GALES TO LOW END STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN OVER
MUCH OF OUR WATERS. VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE HIGH WINDS, COMPOSED OF MODERATE WEST SWELL AND VERY STRONG
SOUTHERLY CHOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY, BUT ANOTHER FRONT MAY AFFECT THE
WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. -BPN/WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
        FOR ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
        ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
        FOR ORZ028.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ026.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
        FOR CAZ082.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
        FOR CAZ081.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
        FOR CAZ083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT
        SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
        EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
        PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ310.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

15/15/15





000
FXUS66 KPQR 250104 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
604 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WIND BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING
...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE WILL BE A SHORT DRYING PERIOD MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM TUESDAY. THE TUESDAY SYSTEM COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&
.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH SLIGHTLY QUICKER THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATED.
ALSO UPDATED QPF AND TO REFLECT THE RAINFALL THAT WAS OBSERVED WITH
THE FRONT EARLIER AS IT WAS ACROSS LANE COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT JUST LIFTED NORTH
OF SALEM. LOW CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN THE INLAND VALLEYS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE IS WIDESPREAD RAIN NORTH OF SALEM. TJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...INFRA-RED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND KRTX DOPPLER RADAR SHOW A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST TO NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON. LIGHT RAIN
HAS REACHED A KMMV-KONP LINE AS OF 20Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE THROUGH 20Z HAVE BEEN RATHER
LIGHT..GENERALLY ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED A BIT SINCE THIS MORNING. 20Z KTTD-KDLS
GRADIENT AT -3.3 MB...STILL SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE 6-HR NAM
FORECAST. HAVE HAD GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT CORBETT AND 35-40 MPH AT CROWN
POINT. GRADIENT SHOULD HOLD AROUND -3.5 MB THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO -5 TO -6 MB BY 12Z SAT.

BIGGEST SHORT-TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR
39N 132W. LATEST NAM INDICATED A 997 MB CENTER AT 18Z. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD DRY AIR INTRUSION ON THE EAST FLANK OF THE LOW. IT
IS ALSO STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF ELONGATION...SIMILAR TO THE NAM
SOLUTION. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEPTH AND TRACK. BY 12Z SAT THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
ELONGATED LOW...WITH THE PRIMARY LOW CENTER AT 41N 129W. THE
NAM...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF...SUGGEST A SECOND WEAKER LOW
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OFF THE S WA OR FAR N OREGON COAST 12Z SAT.
THE PRESENCE OF TWO LOW CENTERS COULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL WEAKER
SYSTEM. AT 18Z SAT THE GFS MAINTAINS MORE OF A CONSOLIDATE LOW PRES
CENTER JUST W OF KOTH. THE NAM HOLDS ON TO TWO SEPARATE LOW CENTERS
WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE WEAKEST OF ALL MODELS WITH THE
TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENT ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA AND FAR S OREGON
COAST. THE 12Z WRF-GFS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN ITS 00Z RUN...
INDICATING A 3-HR PERIOD OF 55-60 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST STARTING AT 21Z SAT. THE 18Z NAM SHOWS 45 KT 975 MB WIND
SPEEDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST FOR 21Z SAT. BASED ON ALL OF THE
ABOVE...AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THE COAST WILL REACH WIDESPREAD
HIGH-WIND CRITERIA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SPOTTY 55-60 MPH WIND GUSTS
ON THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST HEADLANDS BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 00Z
SUN...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THE FREQUENCY AND COVERAGE WARRANT A
HIGHLIGHT. HAVE A HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE FOR BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD (2-4 HOURS) OF WINDY
CONDITIONS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES N-NE INTO SW WA LATE SAT
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 12Z GFS SHOWS A +13 MB 6-HR PRES CHANGE
BULLSEYE NEAR KONP 06Z SUN...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO BENCHMARK
THRESHOLDS TO GET WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE
THIS ISOBARIC CHANGE IN A MORE SOUTH-TO-NORTH ORIENTATION. IN ANY
EVENT...CURRENT FORECAST OF 35-45 MPH GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
LATE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOKS GOOD. STRONGEST GUSTS
SHOULD BE S OF KSLE. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SAT
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ASHORE.

THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. AS
USUAL...THE COAST RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADES WILL
HAVE THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS DUE TO 15-25 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS AS WELL SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CUT BACK ON POPS A
BIT FOR MON...AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TRIM THEM EVEN MORE.
WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WET WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ANA...THAT SKIRTED HAWAII LAST WEEK. MODELS MAY BE
UNDER DOING THE PRECIPITATON POTENTIAL WITH THIS ONE. A STRONG JET
STREAM WILL REMAIN DIRECTED AT WA AND NRN OREGON THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW LARGE VARIATIONS BEGINNING WED...BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
AMPLIFIES THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 07Z.
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO DECREASE AFTER 08Z AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO WA. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 10Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF FOG AND MIST DEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z. WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN
TO THE EAST AFTER 23Z. HOWEVER...TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.
/64

&&

.MARINE...A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW
LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON SAT BEFORE
MOVING INLAND ON LATE SAT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START
LATE TONIGHT IN THE CENTRAL OR WATERS AND LAST THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. IN THE NORTHERN OR AND SOUTHER WA WATERS EXPECT GALE
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GALES WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS PEAKING AT AROUND 15 FT SATURDAY EVENING.

AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WINDS WILL BECOME W AND DECREASE WITH SEAS
LOWERING TO AROUND 7 TO 9 FT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT POSSIBLE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 8 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO
     8 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
     SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KMFR 242303
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
403 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AROUND 40N 132W AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO THE COAST
OF WASHINGTON DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FROM STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS (STRONGEST IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS). BUT, IT WILL ALSO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF THE CASCADES
(AND LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE), ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY NEAR THE COAST), AND UP TO 6 INCHES OF MOUNTAIN
SNOW WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 7000 FEET ON SATURDAY FALLING TO
AROUND 5000 FEET WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MOST NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE TO ADD A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THE COAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AND ADD A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY THAT IS IN
EFFECT NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER, WINDS INCREASE TO
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WITH GUSTS OF 55 TO 70 MPH IN THAT
LOCALE AND MANY OTHERS...INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE
EAST SIDE. THERE IS AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE NEAR SHORE WINDS
THIS EVENING THAT WILL RESULT IN THE STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING
INLAND BEFORE ARRIVING AT THE COAST. FOR INSTANCE, THE CAPE BLANCO
BUOY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAS HAD A PEAK GUST THIS AFTERNOON OF
30 MPH BUT WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUSTED TO 45 MPH AT WEED.

THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
FOR CURRY, JOSEPHINE, AND WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REACH THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN SPREAD INLAND SATURDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST
TO BE UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE COASTAL RANGE OF CURRY COUNTY WITH UP
TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN CURRY, COOS, JOSEPHINE, AND WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. UP TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE ON THE WEST SIDE
AND GENEARLLY UP TO A HALF INCH ON THE EAST SIDE.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVIEST AND WIND SPEEDS STRONGEST
AROUND THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT A SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.
WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A DECREASE
OF CLOUDS AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
LEADING TO A CHILLY START TO MONDAY. THIS COOLING WILL LIKELY BE
MODERATED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY LOW CLOUDS.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS AT THE COAST NORTH OF NORTH BEND. BUT, HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALREADY BE ARRIVING AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG FRONT, MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL REACH THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FROM TUESDAY MORNING THOUGH FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
WET SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
JET AXIS IS NORTH OF THE REGION LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINING
WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT BRINGS HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST SIDE
WITH A WETTING RAIN POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CASCADES IN A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND SHIFTS EAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS
WEAKENING OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FROM FRIDAY THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS VARY IN THE THE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF A CUTOFF
LOW BEYOND 130W...WITH THE ECMWF PUTTING THE LOW OFF OF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE GFS LOCATING IT OFF OF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER ON THE
FORECAST UP TO FRIDAY...AND LOWER NEXT WEEKEND. /SVEN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/18Z TAF CYCLE...A WARM FRONT IS MOVING NORTH
OF THE REGION WITH THE RAIN ACCOMPANYING IT. CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY
BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH KRBG BEING THE STRAGGLER. AS THE
RAIN ENDS, GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. THESE VERY STRONG WINDS REMAIN OVER
MOST OF THE REGION INTO THE MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT FRI 24 OCT 2014...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME, AND HOW
LONG THEY WILL PERSIST. WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECASTS BETWEEN
EUREKA AND NORTH BEND WOULD SUGGEST STORM FORCE WINDS UNDER USUAL
CIRCUMSTANCES, THE FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
COAST, AND THIS WILL KEEP WINDS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN WE WOULD
TYPICALLY SEE WITH THIS STRONG OF A SYSTEM. WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST
AND BEGIN TO EASE IN THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUBJECT TO
CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT AT LEAST 12-18 HOURS
OF STRONG GALES TO LOW END STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN OVER
MUCH OF OUR WATERS. VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE HIGH WINDS, COMPOSED OF MODERATE WEST SWELL AND VERY STRONG
SOUTHERLY CHOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY, BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. -BPN/WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ028.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ026.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ082.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ081.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ310.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

DW/SVEN/BPN







000
FXUS66 KPDT 242302 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
402 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO END ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE IT SPREADS NORTH INTO OUR
WASHINGTON ZONES. BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
THE PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY,
ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON, AND PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. GRADIENTS
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND
DURING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH. THUS HAVE ISSUED
WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL GUST ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. ALSO WINDS WILL BECOME PERSISTENT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND LOWER BASIN. THUS HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MORE PRECIP TO THE
AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, RUNNING BETWEEN
4500 AND 5000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING
SUNDAY DUE TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS A WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY ON
TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA BECOME ENTRAINED IN A
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WILL
RANGE FROM 6000-8000 FEET AND WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE DIVERGING BY
DAY 7. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEY ALSO AGREE ON A CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY...BUT WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE RAIN INTO FRIDAY...THE
ECMWF QUICKLY PULLS THE PACIFIC LOW NORTHEASTWARD AND DRIES OUT THE
LOCAL AREA.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...FORECASTING CIGS AND VSBYS REMAINS A
CHALLENGE DUE TO THE COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INLAND. RAIN WILL
DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR AT KPDT...KALW...KDLS...KPSC
AND KYKM THIS EVENING. RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF KRDM AND KBDN. THERE
WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THAT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RADIATIONAL FOG AT
KPSC BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE CREATING
STRATUS CLOUDS AT KDLS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TOMORROW AND CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KBDN AND KRDM. STRONGER WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AFTER 26/00Z. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  66  45  58 /  30  20  30  20
ALW  47  66  48  57 /  60  20  40  30
PSC  45  63  48  63 /  60  20  30  20
YKM  42  56  42  57 /  70  30  50  20
HRI  42  64  46  62 /  50  20  30  20
ELN  41  58  41  56 /  70  40  50  20
RDM  39  63  37  54 /  10  20  40  20
LGD  43  66  44  53 /  20  20  40  40
GCD  42  64  42  53 /  10  20  40  30
DLS  45  60  46  58 /  70  50  60  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR LADD AND PYLES
     CANYONS IN THE ORZ049.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY WAZ028-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82







000
FXUS66 KPQR 242210
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
308 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WIND BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING
...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE WILL BE A SHORT DRYING PERIOD MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM TUESDAY. THE TUESDAY SYSTEM COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND KRTX DOPPLER RADAR SHOW A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST TO NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON. LIGHT RAIN HAS REACHED A
KMMV-KONP LINE AS OF 20Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST AND COAST RANGE THROUGH 20Z HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT..GENERALLY
ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
STRENGTHENED A BIT SINCE THIS MORNING. 20Z KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT AT -3.3
MB...STILL SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE 6-HR NAM FORECAST. HAVE HAD GUSTS
TO 25 MPH AT CORBETT AND 35-40 MPH AT CROWN POINT. GRADIENT SHOULD
HOLD AROUND -3.5 MB THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO -5 TO -6
MB BY 12Z SAT.

BIGGEST SHORT-TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR
39N 132W. LATEST NAM INDICATED A 997 MB CENTER AT 18Z. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD DRY AIR INTRUSION ON THE EAST FLANK OF THE LOW. IT
IS ALSO STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF ELONGATION...SIMILAR TO THE NAM
SOLUTION. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEPTH AND TRACK. BY 12Z SAT THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
ELONGATED LOW...WITH THE PRIMARY LOW CENTER AT 41N 129W. THE
NAM...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF...SUGGEST A SECOND WEAKER LOW
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OFF THE S WA OR FAR N OREGON COAST 12Z SAT.
THE PRESENCE OF TWO LOW CENTERS COULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL WEAKER
SYSTEM. AT 18Z SAT THE GFS MAINTAINS MORE OF A CONSOLIDATE LOW PRES
CENTER JUST W OF KOTH. THE NAM HOLDS ON TO TWO SEPARATE LOW CENTERS
WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE WEAKEST OF ALL MODELS WITH THE
TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENT ALONG THE N CALIFORNIA AND FAR S OREGON
COAST. THE 12Z WRF-GFS IS A BIT STRONGER THAN ITS 00Z RUN...
INDICATING A 3-HR PERIOD OF 55-60 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST STARTING AT 21Z SAT. THE 18Z NAM SHOWS 45 KT 975 MB WIND
SPEEDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST FOR 21Z SAT. BASED ON ALL OF THE
ABOVE...AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THE COAST WILL REACH WIDESPREAD
HIGH-WIND CRITERIA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SPOTTY 55-60 MPH WIND GUSTS
ON THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST HEADLANDS BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 00Z
SUN...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THE FREQUENCY AND COVERAGE WARRANT A
HIGHLIGHT. HAVE A HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE FOR BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD (2-4 HOURS) OF WINDY
CONDITIONS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES N-NE INTO SW WA LATE SAT
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 12Z GFS SHOWS A +13 MB 6-HR PRES CHANGE
BULLSEYE NEAR KONP 06Z SUN...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO BENCHMARK
THRESHOLDS TO GET WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE
THIS ISALLOBARIC CHANGE IN A MORE SOUTH-TO-NORTH ORIENTATION. IN ANY
EVENT...CURRENT FORECAST OF 35-45 MPH GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
LATE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOKS GOOD. STRONGEST GUSTS
SHOULD BE S OF KSLE. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SAT
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ASHORE.

THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. AS
USUAL...THE COAST RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADES WILL
HAVE THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS DUE TO 15-25 KT WLY 850 MB FLOW. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS AS WELL SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CUT BACK ON POPS A
BIT FOR MON...AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TRIM THEM EVEN MORE.
WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WET WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ANA...THAT SKIRTED HAWAII LAST WEEK. MODELS MAY BE
UNDERDOING THE PRECIPITATON POTENTIAL WITH THIS ONE. A STRONG JET
STREAM WILL REMAIN DIRECTED AT WA AND NRN OREGON THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW LARGE VARIATIONS BEGINNING WED...BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
AMPLIFIES THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 07Z.
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO DECREASE AFTER 08Z AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO WA. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 10Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF FOG AND MIST DEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z. WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN
TO THE EAST AFTER 23Z. HOWEVER...TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.
/64

&&

.MARINE...A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW
LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON SAT BEFORE
MOVING INLAND ON LATE SAT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START
LATE TONIGHT IN THE CENTRAL OR WATERS AND LAST THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. IN THE NORTHERN OR AND SOUTHER WA WATERS EXPECT GALE
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GALES WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS PEAKING AT AROUND 15 FT SATURDAY EVENING.

AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WINDS WILL BECOME W AND DECREASE WITH SEAS
LOWERING TO AROUND 7 TO 9 FT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT POSSIBLE. /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 8 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO
     8 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
     SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPDT 242149
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
249 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO END ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE IT SPREADS NORTH INTO OUR
WASHINGTON ZONES. BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
THE PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY,
ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON, AND PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. GRADIENTS
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND
DURING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH. THUS HAVE ISSUED
WIND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL GUST ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. ALSO WINDS WILL BECOME PERSISTENT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND LOWER BASIN. THUS HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MORE PRECIP TO THE
AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, RUNNING BETWEEN
4500 AND 5000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING
SUNDAY DUE TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THUS SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. 90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS A WEAK TRANSITORY
RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY ON
TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA BECOME ENTRAINED IN A
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WILL
RANGE FROM 6000-8000 FEET AND WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE DIVERGING BY
DAY 7. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEY ALSO AGREE ON A CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY...BUT WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES THE RAIN INTO FRIDAY...THE
ECMWF QUICKLY PULLS THE PACIFIC LOW NORTHEASTWARD AND DRIES OUT THE
LOCAL AREA.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...FORECASTING CIGS AND
VSBYS REMAINS A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING
INLAND. RAIN TODAY WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO
MVFR...AND LOCALLY IFR. RAIN HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO KRDM AND KBDN
AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO THE OR/WA BORDER BY 21Z THEN OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON BY 00Z. THERE WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM
TONIGHT THAT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW RADIATIONAL FOG AT KPSC BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN
EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE MAY
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE CREATING STRATUS CLOUDS AT KDLS
OVERNIGHT.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  66  45  58 /  30  20  30  20
ALW  47  66  48  57 /  60  20  40  30
PSC  45  63  48  63 /  60  20  30  20
YKM  42  56  42  57 /  70  30  50  20
HRI  42  64  46  62 /  50  20  30  20
ELN  41  58  41  56 /  70  40  50  20
RDM  39  63  37  54 /  10  20  40  20
LGD  43  66  44  53 /  20  20  40  40
GCD  42  64  42  53 /  10  20  40  30
DLS  45  60  46  58 /  70  50  60  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
     ORZ044-507-508.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR LADD AND PYLES
     CANYONS IN THE ORZ049.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY WAZ028-029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82








000
FXUS65 KBOI 242052
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
252 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS FROM BAKER
TO MCCALL ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM SOUTH TO THE NORTH
THIS EVENING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PULLS DRIER AIR OUT OF NEVADA. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BECOMING VERY WINDY IN
PORTIONS OF SE OREGON BY THE AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR HARNEY COUNTY AND MALHEUR COUNTY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL
ALSO DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE
TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO OUR
AREA...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE BOISE/WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SHADOWING EFFECTS WILL LIMIT THE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE TREASURE VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
ALONG A COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER AIR WITH VALLEYS HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST /ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SW IDAHO/ WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE 5000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN OREGON
AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL GAIN AMPLITUDE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ON THURSDAY THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY...LEAVING
EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO UNDER A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AREAS OF TERRAIN
OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 00Z.
EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR MVFR
STRATUS WEST OF KEUL AND IN EAST CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY...CLEARING
BY ABOUT 06Z. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE MOSTLY 10 KTS OR LESS...
BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10-20 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
15- 30 KTS IN SOUTHEAST OREGON. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 35
KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...EXCEPT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 5K FT MSL.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /11 AM PDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/
     SATURDAY ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS66 KPDT 241734 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1032 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO
MOST LOCATIONS AS IT MOVES NORTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
15 MPH TODAY, BUT WILL BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS TONIGHT. ALSO SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. OVERALL FORECASTS
WERE ON TRACK WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT. DID MAKE SOME
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND DID RAISE POPS IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY EVENING WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY AS A STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME
WILL RANGE FROM 6000-7000 FEET. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ONCE
AGAIN DIVERGING BY DAY 6...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON THE HIGH
DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE RUNS. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE MID WEEK. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...FORECASTING CIGS AND VSBYS REMAINS A
CHALLENGE DUE TO THE COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INLAND. RAIN
TODAY WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR...AND
LOCALLY IFR. RAIN HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO KRDM AND KBDN AND WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD TO THE OR/WA BORDER BY 21Z THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON BY 00Z. THERE WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT
THAT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW RADIATIONAL FOG AT KPSC BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN EASTERLY
SURFACE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE MAY RESULT IN LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE CREATING STRATUS CLOUDS AT KDLS OVERNIGHT.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  56  46  59  45 /  60  30  20  30
ALW  58  49  60  49 /  50  60  20  30
PSC  59  45  62  48 /  20  60  20  30
YKM  53  40  56  41 /  20  70  30  40
HRI  58  43  62  46 /  40  50  20  30
ELN  56  39  56  40 /  10  70  30  40
RDM  56  38  58  36 /  80  10  20  40
LGD  56  43  63  44 /  60  20  20  30
GCD  57  42  62  42 /  80  10  20  40
DLS  55  45  60  47 /  70  70  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82







000
FXUS66 KPQR 241647
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
945 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO SW OREGON
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...KRTX DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SOME
LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. 15Z METARS NOT INDICATING ANY PRECIPITATION...EVEN AT KEUG.
SUSPECT MOST OF THE ECHOES ACROSS LANE COUNTY ARE VIRGA. PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA NEAR 39N 133W AT
15Z. WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS SRN
OREGON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N DURING THE DAY.

OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. 15Z
KTTD-KDLS GRADIENT WAS -2.6 MB...WHICH IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
3-HR 12Z NAM FORECAST. GRADIENT LIKELY TO BE AROUND -3 TO -3.5 MB BY
00Z SAT...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE WEST END OF THE
COLUMBIA GORGE. AREAS N OF KSLE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON.

BIGGEST SHORT-TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE DEVELOPING LOW.
MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEPTH AND
TRACK. BY 12Z SAT THE 12Z NAM...06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW AN
ELONGATED LOW...WITH THE PRIMARY LOW CENTER AT 41N 129W. SOME
DIFFERENCES START TO CROP UP AT THE 18Z TIME STEP...WITH THE NAM
MOVING THE LOW FURTHER N UP THE OREGON COAST COMPARED TO THE 06Z GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF. THE 00Z WRF-GFS BACKED OFF ON THE PEAK WIND GUSTS FOR
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THE 12Z THU RUN SHOWED A SMALL CORE OF
60-70 KT GUSTS EARLY SAT AFTERNOON BETWEEN NEWPORT AND FLORENCE. THE
00Z RUN KNOCKED THESE DOWN TO AROUND 50 KT. THE 12Z NAM DOES INDICATE
TWO SEPARATE LOW CENTERS 18Z SAT...WITH THE TIGHTEST S GRADIENT ALONG
THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. THE NAM DOES SHOW 50 KT 975 MB WIND SPEEDS
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST 18Z SAT...BUT BY 21Z THE STRONGEST 975 MB
WIND SPEED IS AROUND 40 KT. NOT CONVINCED THE COAST WILL REACH
HIGH-WIND CRITERIA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED 55-60 MPH WIND GUSTS
ON THE HEADLANDS BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. HAVE HIGHER DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE FOR BLUSTERY CONDITIONS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT A
BRIEF PERIOD (2-4 HOURS) OF WINDY CONDITIONS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
N-NE INTO SW WA LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 12Z GFS SHOWS A
+13 MB 6-HR PRES CHANGE BULLSEYE NEAR KONP 06Z SUN...WHICH IS PRETTY
CLOSE TO BENCHMARK THRESHOLDS TO GET WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY.
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS ISALLOBARIC CHANGE IN A MORE SOUTH-TO-NORTH
ORIENTATION. IN ANY EVENT...CURRENT FORECAST OF 35-45 MPH GUSTS IN
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING LOOKS
GOOD. STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD BE S OF KSLE.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES
DWINDLING BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST. SHORTWAVES
WILL SUPPORT RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEGINNING AROUND THURSDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE EXTENT THAT CLIMO SEEMS THE BEST
BET AT THIS POINT FOR THE REMAINING 24 HRS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BOWEN/27

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGTH RAIN...MAINLY
SOUTH...THROUGH AROUND 19Z. A FEW LOCATIONS WITH MVFR OR IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AFTER 19Z
AND SPREAD RAIN INTO NW OR. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR
WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS. RAIN DECREASING AFTER 08Z AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO WA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
MORE GENERAL RAIN DEVELOPS...MAINLY AFTER 19Z AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO NW OR. /64

&&

.MARINE...MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT E WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE SW AND MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON SAT AND INLAND
LATE SAT. THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THE MOMENT AS MODELS HAVE THE LOW BECOMING MORE ELONGATED...BUT
STILL EXPECTING SOUTHERLY GALES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GALES WILL
BRING STEEP SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 20 FT POSSIBLE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WINDS WILL BECOME W AND DECREASE WITH SEAS
LOWERING TO AROUND 8 TO 10 FT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
/64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
    60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO
     8 AM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KMFR 241642
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
942 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
BUT, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ON THE WAY WITH A FOCUS ON FINE
TUNING THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT IS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES INTO NORTHERN
KLAMATH AND NORTHWEST LAKE COUNTIES. IT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN LINGERING LONGEST (THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON) TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSON COUNTY. MEANTIME,
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ELSEWHERE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON. OUR AREA WILL BE RAIN-FREE THIS EVENING BUT WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE
AS THE ASSOCIATED/TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREAD INLAND SATURDAY WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST AND
WIND SPEEDS BUILDING TO A PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL FEATURE OF THE STORM WITH SPEEDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH EXPECTED IN THE ROGUE VALLEY
AND 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
SHASTA VALLEY, AND THE EAST SIDE. AS IS TYPICAL, TERRAIN
INFLUENCES WILL PRODUCE THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
WEED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE IN NORTHWEST LAKE COUNTY.

WINDS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT A
SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG FRONT REACHES THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY WEST-SIDE FOCUSED RAINFALL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/12Z TAF CYCLE...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN CURRENTLY LIES ALONG THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER AND WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS AND VIS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING, BUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF RAIN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE
RAIN ENDS, GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH END GALES WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, AND SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HOW LONG INTO SATURDAY THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE
WILL DEPEND ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND BEGIN TO EASE IN THE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT THE IMPORTANT
POINT IS THAT AT LEAST 12-18 HOURS OF STRONG GALES TO LOW END
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN OVER MUCH OF OUR WATERS. VERY
STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WINDS.

THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN SUNDAY, BUT ANOTHER FRONT MAY AFFECT THE
WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IS NOW LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOVING NORTH. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH AND AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE, THEN END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES COULD END UP MILDER THAN WHAT`S IN
THE FORECAST.

OUR NEXT ATTENTION WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES...SHASTA VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
ROGUE VALLEY. MODELS ALL SHOW INCREASING 700 MB WINDS INCREASING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
OUT BETWEEN 65-75 KTS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN DECREASING LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THEREFORE WE`LL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND
ADVISORIES FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
THE SHASTA VALLEY. ALSO A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. IN ADDITION THE NAM INDICATES
THAT A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH 35
TO 45 KT SOUTH WINDS AT 850 MB FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO WESTERN VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
ROGUE VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK INVERSION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE WINDS COULD START OUT LIGHT, BUT THEY WILL
INCREASE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY. DETAILS ON ALL OF THE WIND PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND AT
NPWMFR.

ALONG THE COAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND
WARNING LEVELS BUT COASTAL HEADLANDS MAY EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION, TO WIND IMPACTS, THIS STRONG LOW WILL BRING RAIN
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ALSO COLD AIR ALOFT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS WELL ON SATURDAY. OF NOTE IS THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
MOST SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN ON SUNDAY. A BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES, THEN
ANOTHER FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ028.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ026.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ082.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ081.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/SBN/SBN







000
FXUS66 KPDT 241632
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
932 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO
MOST LOCATIONS AS IT MOVES NORTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
15 MPH TODAY, BUT WILL BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS TONIGHT. ALSO SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. OVERALL FORECASTS
WERE ON TRACK WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT. DID MAKE SOME
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND DID RAISE POPS IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY EVENING WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY AS A STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME
WILL RANGE FROM 6000-7000 FEET. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ONCE
AGAIN DIVERGING BY DAY 6...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON THE HIGH
DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE RUNS. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE MID WEEK. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...FORECASTING CIGS AND
VSBYS WAS A CHALLENGE FOR THE 12Z TAFS. BELIEVE RAIN TODAY WILL
LIKELY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR...AND LOCALLY IFR.
RAIN WILL SOON DEVELOP AT KRDM AND KBDN THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD TO THE
OR/WA BORDER BY 18Z THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON BY NOON.
THERE WILL BE CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THAT MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RADIATIONAL
FOG AT KPSC BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE TO DEVELOP STRATUS CLOUDS AT KDLS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  56  46  59  45 /  60  30  20  30
ALW  58  49  60  49 /  50  60  20  30
PSC  59  45  62  48 /  20  60  20  30
YKM  53  40  56  41 /  20  70  30  40
HRI  58  43  62  46 /  40  50  20  30
ELN  56  39  56  40 /  10  70  30  40
RDM  56  38  58  36 /  80  10  20  40
LGD  56  43  63  44 /  60  20  20  30
GCD  57  42  62  42 /  80  10  20  40
DLS  55  45  60  47 /  70  70  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82








000
FXUS65 KBOI 241548
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
948 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT TODAY. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP EXTENDS FROM THE STEENS MOUNTAIN TO GARDEN VALLEY. A DRIER
AIR MASS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES HAVE ENTERED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER AND THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY. THE DRIER AIR MASS AND CLEARING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AS
WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-15 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS MOST OF
SE OREGON/SW IDAHO EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DUE TO LINGERING
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...THIS MORNING...WEST AND NORTH OF KBOI AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR. EAST AND
SOUTH OF KBOI VFR WITH AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST AND NORTH OF KBOI IMPROVING WITH RAIN ENDING AND
CLOUDS DECREASING FROM THE SOUTH. VFR TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR PATCHES
OF VALLEY FOG BY 06Z. EAST AND SOUTH OF KBOI CONTINUED VFR.
SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS THIS MORNING AND 5-15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 35 KTS AT 10K FT
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RAIN /SNOW ABOVE 7500/
NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL AXIS THAT AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM ROME
OREGON TO JEROME IDAHO...WILL LIFT NORTH OF BOISE AROUND 6
AM...BAKER AND MCCALL AROUND 3 PM...AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE THE SERVICE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A SMALL THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO WEST HARNEY COUNTY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH...FRIDAY...PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FEET. MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP COLDER AIR AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER...THIS
FORCES MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS SPLIT AFTER THURSDAY CONCERNING
THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE AND
MUCH DRIER WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY JET TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE
GFS PLACES THE MOIST UPPER JET OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
FURTHER EAST WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PREDICTABILITY CHARTS FAVORED THE DRIER ECMWF
SOLUTION BUT KEPT CLIMO POPS FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 241123
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
423 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/12Z TAF CYCLE...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN CURRENTLY LIES ALONG THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER AND WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS AND VIS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING, BUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF RAIN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE
RAIN ENDS, GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 350 AM PDT FRI 24 OCT 2014...THE MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SETTLE ON A TRACK FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOW PRESSURE
OUT NEAR 135W WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND THEN MOVE BY PROBABLY JUST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO ON SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
THEN WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND THEN REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH END GALES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, AND SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. HOW LONG INTO SATURDAY THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE WILL
DEPEND ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND BEGIN TO EASE IN THE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT THE IMPORTANT POINT IS
THAT AT LEAST 12-18 HOURS OF STRONG GALES TO LOW END STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN OVER MUCH OF OUR WATERS. VERY STEEP AND
CHAOTIC SEAS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WINDS.

THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN SUNDAY, BUT ANOTHER FRONT MAY AFFECT THE
WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IS NOW LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOVING NORTH. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH AND AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE, THEN END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES COULD END UP MILDER THAN WHAT`S IN
THE FORECAST.

OUR NEXT ATTENTION WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES...SHASTA VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
ROGUE VALLEY. MODELS ALL SHOW INCREASING 700 MB WINDS INCREASING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
OUT BETWEEN 65-75 KTS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN DECREASING LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THEREFORE WE`LL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND
ADVISORIES FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
THE SHASTA VALLEY. ALSO A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. IN ADDITION THE NAM INDICATES
THAT A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH 35
TO 45 KT SOUTH WINDS AT 850 MB FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO WESTERN VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
ROGUE VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK INVERSION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE WINDS COULD START OUT LIGHT, BUT THEY WILL
INCREASE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY. DETAILS ON ALL OF THE WIND PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND AT
NPWMFR.

ALONG THE COAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND
WARNING LEVELS BUT COASTAL HEADLANDS MAY EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION, TO WIND IMPACTS, THIS STRONG LOW WILL BRING RAIN
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ALSO COLD AIR ALOFT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS WELL ON SATURDAY. OF NOTE IS THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT.

POST FRONTAL SOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
MOST SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN ON SUNDAY. A BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES, THEN
ANOTHER FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ028.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ026.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ082.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ081.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$









000
FXUS66 KPDT 241116
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
415 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND UP THROUGH THE CWA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AND
THEN WILL SWING UP THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS OFF THE COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH A BREAK TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.
THEN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY
WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
UP SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT WINDS WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
SPEEDS. RIGHT NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS ABOUT THIS BUT IT WILL BECOME WINDY IN MOST AREAS IN ANY
CASE AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOL
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY EVENING WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY AS A STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME
WILL RANGE FROM 6000-7000 FEET.  THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ONCE
AGAIN DIVERGING BY DAY 6...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON THE HIGH
DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE RUNS. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE MID WEEK. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.  FORECASTING CIGS AND VSBYS WAS A CHALLENGE
FOR THE 12Z TAFS.  BELIEVE RAIN TODAY WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE
CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR...AND LOCALLY IFR.  RAIN WILL SOON
DEVELOP AT KRDM AND KBDN THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD TO THE OR/WA BORDER
BY 18Z THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON BY NOON.  THERE WILL BE
CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THAT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS CLOUDS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RADIATIONAL FOG AT KPSC BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY.  AN EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT THROUGH THE EASTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE TO DEVELOP
STRATUS CLOUDS AT KDLS OVERNIGHT.  WISTER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  46  59  45 /  50  30  20  30
ALW  59  49  60  49 /  50  50  20  30
PSC  59  45  62  48 /  20  60  20  30
YKM  55  40  56  41 /  20  60  30  40
HRI  58  43  62  46 /  40  50  20  30
ELN  53  39  56  40 /  10  70  30  40
RDM  55  38  58  36 /  70  20  20  40
LGD  54  43  63  44 /  70  20  20  30
GCD  57  42  62  42 /  70  10  20  40
DLS  57  45  60  47 /  70  60  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85







000
FXUS66 KMFR 241116
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
416 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IS NOW LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOVING NORTH. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH AND AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE, THEN END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES COULD END UP MILDER THAN WHAT`S IN
THE FORECAST.

OUR NEXT ATTENTION WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES...SHASTA VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
ROGUE VALLEY. MODELS ALL SHOW INCREASING 700 MB WINDS INCREASING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
OUT BETWEEN 65-75 KTS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN DECREASING LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THEREFORE WE`LL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND
ADVISORIES FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
THE SHASTA VALLEY. ALSO A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. IN ADDITION THE NAM INDICATES
THAT A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH 35
TO 45 KT SOUTH WINDS AT 850 MB FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO WESTERN VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
ROGUE VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK INVERSION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE WINDS COULD START OUT LIGHT, BUT THEY WILL
INCREASE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY. DETAILS ON ALL OF THE WIND PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND AT
NPWMFR.

ALONG THE COAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND
WARNING LEVELS BUT COASTAL HEADLANDS MAY EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION, TO WIND IMPACTS, THIS STRONG LOW WILL BRING RAIN
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ALSO COLD AIR ALOFT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS WELL ON SATURDAY. OF NOTE IS THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT.

POST FRONTAL SOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
MOST SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN ON SUNDAY. A BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES, THEN
ANOTHER FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN  SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN JACKSON, KLAMATH, AND LAKE
COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
A CONTINUED  FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY. THE FRONTAL  BAND WILL BRING MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY FOR
MANY AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED IFR CIGS. ALSO EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN  OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CASCADES WEST WITH AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE  TO VFR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA IN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A CHANCE FOR
CONTINUED RAIN ALONG THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COAST.  OVERALL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING EXPECT  VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA.  CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS THIS MORNING IS LOW TO MODERATE DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS NORTH. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 350 AM PDT FRI 24 OCT 2014...THE MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SETTLE ON A TRACK FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOW PRESSURE
OUT NEAR 135W WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND THEN MOVE BY PROBABLY JUST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO ON SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
THEN WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND THEN REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH END GALES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, AND SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. HOW LONG INTO SATURDAY THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE WILL
DEPEND ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND BEGIN TO EASE IN THE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT THE IMPORTANT POINT IS
THAT AT LEAST 12-18 HOURS OF STRONG GALES TO LOW END STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN OVER MUCH OF OUR WATERS. VERY STEEP AND
CHAOTIC SEAS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WINDS.

THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN SUNDAY, BUT ANOTHER FRONT MAY AFFECT THE
WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ028.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ026.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ082.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ081.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$







000
FXUS66 KPQR 241002
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO SW OREGON
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY EASED THIS MORNING BUT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH
ZONES SHOULD BE DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

A LOW WELL OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THE GFS HAS CONSOLIDATED THE SYSTEM INTO ONE
SINGLE LOW INSTEAD OF AN ELONGATED TWO...THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES ON THE STRENGTH. RAIN IS CERTAIN BASED ON THE TRACK BUT
WINDS WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN THAT REGARD WITH THE SYSTEM. THE NAM AND ECM SHOW
SLIGHTLY SW FLOW THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER WINDS THAN THE SLIGHTLY SE FLOW
DEPICTED BY THE GFS. FAVORED THE NAM/ECM SOLUTION WITH COASTAL WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE IMMEDIATE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST...AND VALLEY WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 45 MPH
SATURDAY EVENING BUT THESE NUMBERS MAY CHANGE AS THE MODELS HOPEFULLY
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES
DWINDLING BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN AND
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. SHORTWAVES WILL SUPPORT RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BEGINNING AROUND THURSDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
TO THE EXTENT THAT CLIMO SEEMS THE BEST BET AT THIS POINT FOR THE
REMAINING 24 HRS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BOWEN/27

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THIS MORNING...MAY BE A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR
CIGS. AFTER 18Z A WARM FRONT LIFTING N WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN N INTO
NW OREGON...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...WITH
RAIN DECREASING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO WA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z...BEFORE A
MORE GENERAL RAIN DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...THERE IS ABOUT A 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEEING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY AS LIGHT S WINDS BACK
AROUND TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN TO AROUND 995 MB AND APPROACH FROM THE SW TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
N THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SAT BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER WESTERN
WA LATE SAT. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW ARE STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR SOUTHERLY GALES WITH THIS
LOW SAT. THE GALES WILL BRING STEEP SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED
TO PEAK AROUND 17 TO 20 FT LATE SAT...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

ONCE THE LOW MOVES INLAND MON EVENING...WINDS WILL TURN TO BACK
TO THE W AND DECREASE ALONG WITH SEAS SUBSIDING. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE W EARLY NEXT WEEK...AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     7 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 241002
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO SW OREGON
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY EASED THIS MORNING BUT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH
ZONES SHOULD BE DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

A LOW WELL OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THE GFS HAS CONSOLIDATED THE SYSTEM INTO ONE
SINGLE LOW INSTEAD OF AN ELONGATED TWO...THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES ON THE STRENGTH. RAIN IS CERTAIN BASED ON THE TRACK BUT
WINDS WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN THAT REGARD WITH THE SYSTEM. THE NAM AND ECM SHOW
SLIGHTLY SW FLOW THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER WINDS THAN THE SLIGHTLY SE FLOW
DEPICTED BY THE GFS. FAVORED THE NAM/ECM SOLUTION WITH COASTAL WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE IMMEDIATE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST...AND VALLEY WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 45 MPH
SATURDAY EVENING BUT THESE NUMBERS MAY CHANGE AS THE MODELS HOPEFULLY
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES
DWINDLING BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. BOWEN/TJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN AND
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. SHORTWAVES WILL SUPPORT RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BEGINNING AROUND THURSDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
TO THE EXTENT THAT CLIMO SEEMS THE BEST BET AT THIS POINT FOR THE
REMAINING 24 HRS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BOWEN/27

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THIS MORNING...MAY BE A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR
CIGS. AFTER 18Z A WARM FRONT LIFTING N WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN N INTO
NW OREGON...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...WITH
RAIN DECREASING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO WA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z...BEFORE A
MORE GENERAL RAIN DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...THERE IS ABOUT A 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEEING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY AS LIGHT S WINDS BACK
AROUND TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN TO AROUND 995 MB AND APPROACH FROM THE SW TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
N THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SAT BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER WESTERN
WA LATE SAT. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW ARE STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR SOUTHERLY GALES WITH THIS
LOW SAT. THE GALES WILL BRING STEEP SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED
TO PEAK AROUND 17 TO 20 FT LATE SAT...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

ONCE THE LOW MOVES INLAND MON EVENING...WINDS WILL TURN TO BACK
TO THE W AND DECREASE ALONG WITH SEAS SUBSIDING. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE W EARLY NEXT WEEK...AROUND MON NIGHT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     7 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS65 KBOI 240937
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
337 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RAIN /SNOW ABOVE 7500/
NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL AXIS THAT AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM ROME
OREGON TO JEROME IDAHO...WILL LIFT NORTH OF BOISE AROUND 6
AM...BAKER AND MCCALL AROUND 3 PM...AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE THE SERVICE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A SMALL THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO WEST HARNEY COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH...FRIDAY...PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FEET. MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP COLDER AIR AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER...THIS
FORCES MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS SPLIT AFTER THURSDAY CONCERNING
THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE AND
MUCH DRIER WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY JET TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE
GFS PLACES THE MOIST UPPER JET OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
FURTHER EAST WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PREDICTABILITY CHARTS FAVORED THE DRIER ECMWF
SOLUTION BUT KEPT CLIMO POPS FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MOUNTAINS OBSCURED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
BECOMING VFR MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY 21Z ALL AREAS. WARM SECTOR
WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED MVFR
/IFR ABOVE 5K FT SUNDAY/ SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO SW
10-25KTS LATER TODAY AND 15-30KTS SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT SW 20 KTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 40KTS THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO 30-50KTS
SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO WEST SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....VM




000
FXUS66 KPDT 240902
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
202 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND IT AND UP THROUGH THE CWA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AND
THEN WILL SWING UP THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS OFF THE COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH A BREAK TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.
THEN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY
WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
UP SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT WINDS WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
SPEEDS. RIGHT NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS ABOUT THIS BUT IT WILL BECOME WINDY IN MOST AREAS IN ANY
CASE AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOL
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY EVENING WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
OTHER THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
FOR MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY AS A STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME
WILL RANGE FROM 6000-7000 FEET.  THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ONCE
AGAIN DIVERGING BY DAY 6...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON THE HIGH
DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE RUNS. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE MID WEEK. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING A CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...THE SWATH OF RAIN THAT
AFFECTED THE TAF SITES HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...IT WILL RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT...KBDN AND KRDM COULD START SEEING RAIN AGAIN AROUND 12Z
ALONG WITH LOWERING CEILINGS. THE RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL
THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY
EVENING EVENTUALLY IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MVFR OR LOWER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  46  59  45 /  50  30  20  30
ALW  59  49  60  49 /  50  50  20  30
PSC  59  45  62  48 /  20  60  20  30
YKM  55  40  56  41 /  20  60  30  40
HRI  58  43  62  46 /  40  50  20  30
ELN  53  39  56  40 /  10  70  30  40
RDM  55  38  58  36 /  70  20  20  40
LGD  54  43  63  44 /  70  20  20  30
GCD  57  42  62  42 /  70  10  20  40
DLS  57  45  60  47 /  70  60  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85






000
FXUS66 KPDT 240525
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1025 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME HAS BEEN PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON TO CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS DIVIDING LINE
SEPARATES THE MORE STEADY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHOWERY TYPE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION.

A SHORTWAVE COMING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST ON FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTH FIRST THEN LIFTING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...THE SWATH OF RAIN THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL
RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...KBDN AND KRDM COULD
START SEEING RAIN AGAIN AROUND 12Z ALONG WITH LOWERING CEILINGS. THE
RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING EVENTUALLY IMPACTING ALL TAF
SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MVFR
OR LOWER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 408 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS ADJUSTMENT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME AND THE LOSS OF THE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE
SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE HAVE BEEN STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A STRAY STORM TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
WILL LINGER FROM WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH GRANT COUNTY TO
DESCHUTES COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THESE
AREAS. A DEEPENING LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE PLUME TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA DUE TO THIS WARM FRONT. THIS LOW LOOKS
MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ADVISORIES, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 4500-5000 FEET WHILE BREEZY WINDS PERSIST. YET ONLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK UP ABOVE 6000 FEET.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF
AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY. WHILE THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN
AND FORECAST DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COBB



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  59  44  65 /  10  50  30  20
ALW  49  60  47  66 /  20  40  40  10
PSC  47  61  45  63 /  10  20  40  20
YKM  39  54  40  57 /  10  20  60  30
HRI  46  61  43  63 /  10  40  40  20
ELN  38  54  39  57 /  10  10  70  30
RDM  40  54  38  62 /  20  70  20  20
LGD  45  55  43  64 /  60  70  20  20
GCD  45  57  42  64 /  60  70  10  20
DLS  45  58  45  60 /  10  70  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91







000
FXUS66 KMFR 240404
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
904 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
CASCADES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS A LOW TO
THE WEST APPROACHES THE REGION, THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY  WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES
SO, EXPECT WESTERN AREAS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GETTING LITTLE
RAINFALL, TO ONCE AGAIN RECEIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE RATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA WITH MOST INLAND AREAS BEING DRY BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON, INCLUDING THE MEDFORD AREA, DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THEN, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A STRONG SURFACE LOW, AROUND
992MB, WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE OREGON
COAST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INLAND NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE COAST INSIDE OF 130W LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 60 MPH OR GREATER REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SHASTA
VALLEY, SUMMER LAKE AREA, AND OVER THE SISKIYOUS MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS FOR MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS WITH A 70 KT 700 MB JET
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION THE
NAM INDICATES THAT A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WITH 35 TO 45 KT SOUTH WINDS AT 850 MB FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO WESTERN VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEY. ALONG THE COAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS BUT COASTAL HEADLANDS MAY
EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION, TO WIND IMPACTS, THIS STRONG LOW WILL BRING RAIN
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ALSO COLD AIR ALOFT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS WELL ON SATURDAY. OF NOTE IS THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY  WINDS DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A STALLED FRONT FROM SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR
THIS EVENING, BUT WITH SOME TERRAIN OBSCURED WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, LIKELY RESULTING IN CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS LOW DUE TO
THE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS EXPECTED. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PDT THU 23 OCT 2014...
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING NEAR 40 NORTH AND 130 WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 WEST INTO NORTHERN OREGON
AND WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HISTORICALLY, THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR HIGH-END GALES AND EVEN POTENTIAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS/HI-RES
ARW/GEM MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A COMPACT LOW WITH PRESSURES AS
LOW AS 985MB, WHILE THE EC/NAM HAVE MORE OF AN ELONGATED LOW WITH
PRESSURES DOWN TO 993MB. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE MODEL BL AND
SURFACE FLOW, HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 KT NEAR CAPE BLANCO
AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A STORM/GALE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO.
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS CHAOTIC SEAS OF UP TO 23
FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING.
THIS MEANS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS.

THE CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN
A BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TAKE THE LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD
ASTORIA. BOTH THE NAME AND THE GFS SHOW VERY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM ARCATA TO NORTH BEND WITH THIS SYSTEM. COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST EXCEPT AT THE
HEADLANDS. THE STRONG GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE SHASTA VALLEYS WHILE 700MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE. I HAVE ISSUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN OREGON AND NE CALIFORNIA. IN
ADDITION THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO SEE A VERY STRONG SOUTH
WINDS IMPACTING THE SISKIYOU PASS AND MOUNT ASHLAND AREA.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
AGAIN AT THE COAST WITH SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTING WINDS AS WELL.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TUESDAY
FORWARD WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE RIDGE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES; WHEREAS THE ECMWF BRINGS A LOW PRESSURE INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW
LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CLIMATOLOGY POPS IN THE
EXTENDED. /FB

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONT STALLING FROM SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND
REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING, BUT WITH SOME TERRAIN OBSCURED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, LIKELY RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BECOME TOTAL. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS LOW DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS
EXPECTED. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PDT THU 23 OCT 2014...
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING NEAR 40 NORTH AND 130 WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 WEST INTO NORTHERN OREGON
AND WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HISTORICALLY, THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR HIGH-END GALES AND EVEN POTENTIAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS/HI-RES
ARW/GEM MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A COMPACT LOW WITH PRESSURES AS
LOW AS 985MB, WHILE THE EC/NAM HAVE MORE OF AN ELONGATED LOW WITH
PRESSURES DOWN TO 993MB. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE MODEL BL AND
SURFACE FLOW, HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 KT NEAR CAPE BLANCO
AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A STORM/GALE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO.
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS CHAOTIC SEAS OF UP TO 23
FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ028.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ081>083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC/CC/CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 240404
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
904 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
CASCADES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS A LOW TO
THE WEST APPROACHES THE REGION, THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY  WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES
SO, EXPECT WESTERN AREAS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GETTING LITTLE
RAINFALL, TO ONCE AGAIN RECEIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE RATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA WITH MOST INLAND AREAS BEING DRY BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON, INCLUDING THE MEDFORD AREA, DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THEN, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A STRONG SURFACE LOW, AROUND
992MB, WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE OREGON
COAST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INLAND NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE COAST INSIDE OF 130W LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 60 MPH OR GREATER REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SHASTA
VALLEY, SUMMER LAKE AREA, AND OVER THE SISKIYOUS MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS FOR MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS WITH A 70 KT 700 MB JET
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION THE
NAM INDICATES THAT A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WITH 35 TO 45 KT SOUTH WINDS AT 850 MB FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO WESTERN VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEY. ALONG THE COAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS BUT COASTAL HEADLANDS MAY
EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION, TO WIND IMPACTS, THIS STRONG LOW WILL BRING RAIN
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ALSO COLD AIR ALOFT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS WELL ON SATURDAY. OF NOTE IS THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY  WINDS DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A STALLED FRONT FROM SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR
THIS EVENING, BUT WITH SOME TERRAIN OBSCURED WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, LIKELY RESULTING IN CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS LOW DUE TO
THE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS EXPECTED. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PDT THU 23 OCT 2014...
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING NEAR 40 NORTH AND 130 WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 WEST INTO NORTHERN OREGON
AND WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HISTORICALLY, THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR HIGH-END GALES AND EVEN POTENTIAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS/HI-RES
ARW/GEM MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A COMPACT LOW WITH PRESSURES AS
LOW AS 985MB, WHILE THE EC/NAM HAVE MORE OF AN ELONGATED LOW WITH
PRESSURES DOWN TO 993MB. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE MODEL BL AND
SURFACE FLOW, HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 KT NEAR CAPE BLANCO
AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A STORM/GALE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO.
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS CHAOTIC SEAS OF UP TO 23
FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING.
THIS MEANS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS.

THE CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN
A BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TAKE THE LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD
ASTORIA. BOTH THE NAME AND THE GFS SHOW VERY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM ARCATA TO NORTH BEND WITH THIS SYSTEM. COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST EXCEPT AT THE
HEADLANDS. THE STRONG GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE SHASTA VALLEYS WHILE 700MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE. I HAVE ISSUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN OREGON AND NE CALIFORNIA. IN
ADDITION THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO SEE A VERY STRONG SOUTH
WINDS IMPACTING THE SISKIYOU PASS AND MOUNT ASHLAND AREA.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
AGAIN AT THE COAST WITH SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTING WINDS AS WELL.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TUESDAY
FORWARD WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE RIDGE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES; WHEREAS THE ECMWF BRINGS A LOW PRESSURE INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW
LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CLIMATOLOGY POPS IN THE
EXTENDED. /FB

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONT STALLING FROM SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND
REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING, BUT WITH SOME TERRAIN OBSCURED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, LIKELY RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BECOME TOTAL. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS LOW DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS
EXPECTED. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PDT THU 23 OCT 2014...
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING NEAR 40 NORTH AND 130 WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 WEST INTO NORTHERN OREGON
AND WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HISTORICALLY, THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR HIGH-END GALES AND EVEN POTENTIAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS/HI-RES
ARW/GEM MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A COMPACT LOW WITH PRESSURES AS
LOW AS 985MB, WHILE THE EC/NAM HAVE MORE OF AN ELONGATED LOW WITH
PRESSURES DOWN TO 993MB. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE MODEL BL AND
SURFACE FLOW, HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 KT NEAR CAPE BLANCO
AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A STORM/GALE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO.
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS CHAOTIC SEAS OF UP TO 23
FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ028.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ081>083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC/CC/CC







000
FXUS66 KPQR 240339
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
839 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
SLOWLY STABILIZES. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO SW OREGON
FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&
.UPDATE...A NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT THE TORNADO THAT
TOUCHED DOWN IN LONGVIEW WA THIS AFTERNOON WAS AN EF-1. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS THAT SHOWERS HAVE EASED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
STILL FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER SW WASHINGTON. THERE HAS BEEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE THAT ARE JUST ENTERING
THE NORTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS AND SW WA COAST FOR THIS EVENING. THE
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...AND REMAIN ON THE DRY
SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE SW WA COAST
AND THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. RAIN WILL RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE FRIDAY MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE
AREA.

FROM PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW
OREGON FRI MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH ZONES COULD BE DRY
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRI AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT FRI INTO SAT MORNING.

MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR 12Z SAT CREATE A HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING. THE GFS IS THE
MOST CONSOLIDATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW 12Z SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
NAM HAVE A MORE ELONGATED LOW WITH MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS. THE LATEST
GFS IS NOW THE SLOWEST WITH THE LOW...WITH A 990 MB CENTER NEAR
NEWPORT 18Z SAT. THE ECWMF AND NAM HAVE THE MAIN LOW CENTER NEAR THE
FAR N OREGON OR S WA COAST. THE WRF-GFS VALID 18Z SAT HAS A SMALL
CORE OF 60-70 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE S PART OF THE CENTRAL
COAST...BUT BY 21Z WIND GUST SPEEDS FALL OFF TO 40-50 KT. IT ALSO
SHOWS A SMALL CORE OF 40-50 KT GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AT 21Z.

DESPITE ALL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS A HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A HEADS UP TO
THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND
MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. TJ/WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING
PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
NEXT THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT WET AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. /27
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING. THE LOWER AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST AND
WITH ENOUGH CLOUD BREAKS THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING. NEXT FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRI AFTERNOON SPREADING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH 12Z WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS FROM 12Z-17Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...BRIEF BREAK IN WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ADVERTISING OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING THE A QUICK SWITCH TO SOUTHERLIES OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE GALE
FORCE WINDS AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST
LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND
VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT SEEMS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY.
A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS
MODELS...GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS
OF 50 KT IF THE STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT BUT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE THE GALE WATCH FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE REFINED AS
MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. SEAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME
STEEP AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE
SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE DETAILS AT
THIS POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL
RELAX IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     3 AM TO 7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     3 PM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 240339
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
839 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
SLOWLY STABILIZES. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO SW OREGON
FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&
.UPDATE...A NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT THE TORNADO THAT
TOUCHED DOWN IN LONGVIEW WA THIS AFTERNOON WAS AN EF-1. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS THAT SHOWERS HAVE EASED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
STILL FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER SW WASHINGTON. THERE HAS BEEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE THAT ARE JUST ENTERING
THE NORTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS AND SW WA COAST FOR THIS EVENING. THE
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...AND REMAIN ON THE DRY
SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE SW WA COAST
AND THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. RAIN WILL RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE FRIDAY MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE
AREA.

FROM PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW
OREGON FRI MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH ZONES COULD BE DRY
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRI AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT FRI INTO SAT MORNING.

MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR 12Z SAT CREATE A HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING. THE GFS IS THE
MOST CONSOLIDATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW 12Z SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
NAM HAVE A MORE ELONGATED LOW WITH MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS. THE LATEST
GFS IS NOW THE SLOWEST WITH THE LOW...WITH A 990 MB CENTER NEAR
NEWPORT 18Z SAT. THE ECWMF AND NAM HAVE THE MAIN LOW CENTER NEAR THE
FAR N OREGON OR S WA COAST. THE WRF-GFS VALID 18Z SAT HAS A SMALL
CORE OF 60-70 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE S PART OF THE CENTRAL
COAST...BUT BY 21Z WIND GUST SPEEDS FALL OFF TO 40-50 KT. IT ALSO
SHOWS A SMALL CORE OF 40-50 KT GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AT 21Z.

DESPITE ALL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS A HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A HEADS UP TO
THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND
MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. TJ/WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING
PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
NEXT THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT WET AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. /27
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING. THE LOWER AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST AND
WITH ENOUGH CLOUD BREAKS THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING. NEXT FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRI AFTERNOON SPREADING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH 12Z WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS FROM 12Z-17Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...BRIEF BREAK IN WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ADVERTISING OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING THE A QUICK SWITCH TO SOUTHERLIES OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE GALE
FORCE WINDS AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST
LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND
VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT SEEMS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY.
A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS
MODELS...GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS
OF 50 KT IF THE STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT BUT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE THE GALE WATCH FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE REFINED AS
MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. SEAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME
STEEP AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE
SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE DETAILS AT
THIS POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL
RELAX IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     3 AM TO 7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     3 PM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPDT 240300
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
800 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME HAS BEEN PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON TO CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS DIVIDING LINE
SEPARATES THE MORE STEADY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHOWERY TYPE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION.

A SHORTWAVE COMING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST ON FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTH FIRST THEN LIFTING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 408 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS ADJUSTMENT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME AND THE LOSS OF THE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE
SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE HAVE BEEN STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A STRAY STORM TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
WILL LINGER FROM WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH GRANT COUNTY TO
DESCHUTES COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THESE
AREAS. A DEEPENING LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE PLUME TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA DUE TO THIS WARM FRONT. THIS LOW LOOKS
MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ADVISORIES, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 4500-5000 FEET WHILE BREEZY WINDS PERSIST. YET ONLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK UP ABOVE 6000 FEET.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF
AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY. WHILE THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN
AND FORECAST DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COBB

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...THE SWATH OF RAIN THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
EARLIER IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...IT WILL RETURN AS A WARM
FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...KBDN AND KRDM COULD START SEEING RAIN
AGAIN AROUND 09Z. RAIN WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THAT SAID...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS GUSTY AS ANTICIPATED BUT WILL BE 10-20
KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  59  44  65 /  10  50  30  20
ALW  49  60  47  66 /  20  40  40  10
PSC  47  61  45  63 /  10  20  40  20
YKM  39  54  40  57 /  10  20  60  30
HRI  46  61  43  63 /  10  40  40  20
ELN  38  54  39  57 /  10  10  70  30
RDM  40  54  38  62 /  20  70  20  20
LGD  45  55  43  64 /  60  70  20  20
GCD  45  57  42  64 /  60  70  10  20
DLS  45  58  45  60 /  10  70  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91









000
FXUS66 KPDT 240300
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
800 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME HAS BEEN PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST OREGON TO CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS DIVIDING LINE
SEPARATES THE MORE STEADY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHOWERY TYPE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION.

A SHORTWAVE COMING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST ON FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTH FIRST THEN LIFTING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 408 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS ADJUSTMENT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME AND THE LOSS OF THE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE
SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE HAVE BEEN STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A STRAY STORM TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
WILL LINGER FROM WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH GRANT COUNTY TO
DESCHUTES COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THESE
AREAS. A DEEPENING LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE PLUME TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA DUE TO THIS WARM FRONT. THIS LOW LOOKS
MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ADVISORIES, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. 90

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 4500-5000 FEET WHILE BREEZY WINDS PERSIST. YET ONLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK UP ABOVE 6000 FEET.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF
AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY. WHILE THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN
AND FORECAST DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COBB

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...THE SWATH OF RAIN THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
EARLIER IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...IT WILL RETURN AS A WARM
FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...KBDN AND KRDM COULD START SEEING RAIN
AGAIN AROUND 09Z. RAIN WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THAT SAID...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS GUSTY AS ANTICIPATED BUT WILL BE 10-20
KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  46  59  44  65 /  10  50  30  20
ALW  49  60  47  66 /  20  40  40  10
PSC  47  61  45  63 /  10  20  40  20
YKM  39  54  40  57 /  10  20  60  30
HRI  46  61  43  63 /  10  40  40  20
ELN  38  54  39  57 /  10  10  70  30
RDM  40  54  38  62 /  20  70  20  20
LGD  45  55  43  64 /  60  70  20  20
GCD  45  57  42  64 /  60  70  10  20
DLS  45  58  45  60 /  10  70  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/91/91









000
FXUS65 KBOI 240252
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
852 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...STARTING TO SEE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS EVENING IN RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
PICS. AS THIS TREND CONTINUES THE PRECIPITATION BAND OVER SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL SHIFT TO THE NW. THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INLINE WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24H. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF BOISE WILL BE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY IS LIKELY DONE WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MADE UPDATES TO
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF IN FOR POINTS FROM BOISE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH ALL SITES REMAINING VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMYL. KMYL IS
EXPECTED TO SEE IFR CIG/VIS OVERNIGHT WITH THE AREA BECOMING SO
MOIST FROM PERSISTENT RAIN.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBNO KBKE AND KMYL...THEN TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATER FRIDAY MORNING. MID DAY FRIDAY THROUGH MID DAY
SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15KTS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST...WITH
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS NEAR 5000 FT MSL AND 35 TO 45 KTS NEAR 10000
FT MSL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BOISE IS ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WHICH EXTENDS TO OUR WEST...AND INCLUDES
NEARLY ALL OF SE OREGON /EXCLUDING SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY/ AND SW
IDAHO...INCLUDING THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NORTH INTO THE UPPER
WEISER BASIN AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BOISE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...SO AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...INCLUDING MOUNTAIN HOME...JEROME...AND TWIN FALLS...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
QPF TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET. ACCUMULATING SNOWS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEYS...WHILE REMAINING COOL IN THE NORTH WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S. A WARMER AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERS
WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A DEEP SURFACE LOW /DOWN TO AROUND 990 MB/
NEAR THE PACNW COAST WILL ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY AND BAKER
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS /IN
THE 70S/ ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A
PROGRESSIVE UNSETTLED PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL COOL HIGHS TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE
5 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH WILL BRING EVEN COOLER AIR AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS. ACCORDING
TO MODELS THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY FURTHER NORTH...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF OREGON. SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IS EXPECTED TO END THE SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 240252
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
852 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...STARTING TO SEE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS EVENING IN RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
PICS. AS THIS TREND CONTINUES THE PRECIPITATION BAND OVER SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL SHIFT TO THE NW. THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INLINE WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24H. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF BOISE WILL BE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY IS LIKELY DONE WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MADE UPDATES TO
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF IN FOR POINTS FROM BOISE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH ALL SITES REMAINING VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMYL. KMYL IS
EXPECTED TO SEE IFR CIG/VIS OVERNIGHT WITH THE AREA BECOMING SO
MOIST FROM PERSISTENT RAIN.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBNO KBKE AND KMYL...THEN TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATER FRIDAY MORNING. MID DAY FRIDAY THROUGH MID DAY
SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15KTS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST...WITH
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS NEAR 5000 FT MSL AND 35 TO 45 KTS NEAR 10000
FT MSL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BOISE IS ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WHICH EXTENDS TO OUR WEST...AND INCLUDES
NEARLY ALL OF SE OREGON /EXCLUDING SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY/ AND SW
IDAHO...INCLUDING THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NORTH INTO THE UPPER
WEISER BASIN AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BOISE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...SO AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...INCLUDING MOUNTAIN HOME...JEROME...AND TWIN FALLS...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
QPF TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET. ACCUMULATING SNOWS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEYS...WHILE REMAINING COOL IN THE NORTH WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S. A WARMER AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERS
WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A DEEP SURFACE LOW /DOWN TO AROUND 990 MB/
NEAR THE PACNW COAST WILL ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY AND BAKER
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS /IN
THE 70S/ ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A
PROGRESSIVE UNSETTLED PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL COOL HIGHS TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE
5 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH WILL BRING EVEN COOLER AIR AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS. ACCORDING
TO MODELS THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY FURTHER NORTH...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF OREGON. SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IS EXPECTED TO END THE SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240018
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
518 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING.
THIS MEANS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS.

THE CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN
A BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TAKE THE LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD
ASTORIA. BOTH THE NAME AND THE GFS SHOW VERY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM ARCATA TO NORTH BEND WITH THIS SYSTEM. COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST EXCEPT AT THE
HEADLANDS. THE STRONG GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE SHASTA VALLEYS WHILE 700MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE. I HAVE ISSUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN OREGON AND NE CALIFORNIA. IN
ADDITION THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO SEE A VERY STRONG SOUTH
WINDS IMPACTING THE SISKIYOU PASS AND MOUNT ASHLAND AREA.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
AGAIN AT THE COAST WITH SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTING WINDS AS WELL.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TUESDAY
FORWARD WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE RIDGE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES; WHEREAS THE ECMWF BRINGS A LOW PRESSURE INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW
LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CLIMATOLOGY POPS IN THE
EXTENDED. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONT STALLING FROM SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND
REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING, BUT WITH SOME TERRAIN OBSCURED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, LIKELY RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BECOME TOTAL. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS LOW DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS
EXPECTED. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PDT THU 23 OCT 2014...
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING NEAR 40 NORTH AND 130 WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 WEST INTO NORTHERN OREGON
AND WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HISTORICALLY, THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR HIGH-END GALES AND EVEN POTENTIAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS/HI-RES
ARW/GEM MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A COMPACT LOW WITH PRESSURES AS
LOW AS 985MB, WHILE THE EC/NAM HAVE MORE OF AN ELONGATED LOW WITH
PRESSURES DOWN TO 993MB. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE MODEL BL AND
SURFACE FLOW, HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 KT NEAR CAPE BLANCO
AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A STORM/GALE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO.
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS CHAOTIC SEAS OF UP TO 23
FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ028.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ081>083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/FB/BTL







000
FXUS66 KPDT 232308 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
408 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS ADJUSTMENT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME AND THE LOSS OF THE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE
SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE HAVE BEEN STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A STRAY STORM TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
WILL LINGER FROM WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH GRANT COUNTY TO
DESCHUTES COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THESE
AREAS. A DEEPENING LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE PLUME TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA DUE TO THIS WARM FRONT. THIS LOW LOOKS
MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ADVISORIES, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 4500-5000 FEET WHILE BREEZY WINDS PERSIST. YET ONLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK UP ABOVE 6000 FEET.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF
AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY. WHILE THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN
AND FORECAST DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...THE SWATH OF RAIN THAT AFFECTED THE TAF SITES
EARLIER IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...IT WILL RETURN AS A WARM
FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...KBDN AND KRDM COULD START SEEING RAIN
AGAIN AROUND 09Z. RAIN WILL THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THAT SAID...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS GUSTY AS ANTICIPATED BUT WILL BE 10-20
KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  60  44  65 /  20  30  30  20
ALW  48  61  47  66 /  20  30  40  10
PSC  47  62  45  63 /  10  10  40  20
YKM  40  55  40  57 /  20  10  60  30
HRI  45  61  43  63 /  20  20  40  20
ELN  39  57  39  57 /  20  10  70  30
RDM  39  56  38  62 /  30  70  20  20
LGD  46  58  43  64 /  60  60  20  20
GCD  43  57  42  64 /  60  60  10  20
DLS  45  58  45  60 /  20  50  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82







000
FXUS66 KMFR 232214
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
314 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING.
THIS MEANS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS.

THE CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN
A BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TAKE THE LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD
ASTORIA. BOTH THE NAME AND THE GFS SHOW VERY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM ARCATA TO NORTH BEND WITH THIS SYSTEM. COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST EXCEPT AT THE
HEADLANDS. THE STRONG GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE SHASTA VALLEYS WHILE 700MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE. I HAVE ISSUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN OREGON AND NE CALIFORNIA. IN
ADDITION THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO SEE A VERY STRONG SOUTH
WINDS IMPACTING THE SISKIYOU PASS AND MOUNT ASHLAND AREA.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
AGAIN AT THE COAST WITH SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTING WINDS AS WELL.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TUESDAY
FORWARD WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE RIDGE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES; WHEREAS THE ECMWF BRINGS A LOW PRESSURE INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW
LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CLIMATOLOGY POPS IN THE
EXTENDED. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
DRAPED ALONG AND NEAR THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES. THIS STALLED FRONT IS CAUSING TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS AREAS, AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ELSEWHERE. IN THE VALLEYS IN THIS SAME AREA CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF
VFR AND IFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN, BUT EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL EVENTUALLY REDEVELOP BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT CURRENT REDUCED
CIGS/VIS WITH THE FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD KLMT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR BEFORE ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TODAY DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG TO VERY STRONG
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND AND SEAS MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ028.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ081>083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL







000
FXUS66 KPQR 232153
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
251 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
SLOWLY BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE. A SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE NORTH
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW OREGON FRIDAY MORNING
AND THEN DRIFTS NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SWINGS
TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON HAS
BECOME MORE ACTIVE. KRTX DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR NEWBERG TO
CAMAS...WA SHORTLY BEFORE 20Z. RECEIVED A CALL FROM AN EMERGENCY
MANAGER IN SW WA JUST AFTER 20Z REGARDING A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR
KELSO AND LONGVIEW THAT PRODUCED SOME ROOF DAMAGE. KRTX DOPPLER RADAR
VELOCITY AND STORM-RELATIVE MOTION DISPLAYS INDICATED SOME DEGREE OF
ROTATION WITHIN THIS CELL. THIS ACTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OFF THE WA AND N OREGON COAST. SW-W 850 MB
FLOW OF 15-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GOOD OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN ELEVATED TERRAIN SUCH AS THE OREGON
COAST RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS...AND THE CASCADE ZONES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A
NEW LOW THAT DEVELOPS AROUND 40N 130W 00Z SAT. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO SW OREGON FRI MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH
ZONES COULD BE DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRI AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT FRI
INTO SAT MORNING. MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR 12Z SAT CREATE A
HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW STRENGTH...TRACK AND
TIMING. THE GFS IS THE MOST CONSOLIDATED WITH THE SURFAFE LOW 12Z
SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A MORE ELONGATED LOW WITH MULTIPLE
LOW CENTERS. THE LATEST GFS IS NOW THE SLOWEST WITH THE LOW...WITH A
990 MB CENTER NEAR NEWPORT 18Z SAT. THE ECWMF AND NAM HAVE THE MAIN
LOW CENTER NEAR THE FAR N OREGON OR S WA COAST. THE WRF-GFS VALID 18Z
SAT HAS A SMALL CORE OF 60-70 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE S PART OF THE
CENTRAL COAST...BUT BY 21Z WIND GUST SPEEDS FALL OFF TO 40-50 KT. IT
ALSO SHOWS A SMALL CORE OF 40-50 KT GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AT 21Z. DESPITE ALL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS A HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPIONG
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A HEADS UP TO
THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND
MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING
PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
NEXT THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT WET AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. /27
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW
AT THIS POINT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE VFR TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...BUT DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS
TONIGHT...IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS
12Z FRIDAY. /NEUMAN /MH

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE NOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WATERS HOWEVER SEAS ARE STILL AROUND 10 TO 12 FEET SO
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING LESS WIND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW SEAS TO DROP
BELOW 10 FT FOR FRIDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND TRACK EITHER NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD JUST BEYOND OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. MODELS SUGGEST LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT SEEMS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. REGARDLESS OF THE
TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS MODELS...GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT IF THE STRONGER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT. SEAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME STEEP
AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE
SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DETAILS AT THIS
POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL RELAX
IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM
     TO 7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 232153
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
251 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
SLOWLY BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE. A SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE NORTH
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW OREGON FRIDAY MORNING
AND THEN DRIFTS NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SWINGS
TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON HAS
BECOME MORE ACTIVE. KRTX DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR NEWBERG TO
CAMAS...WA SHORTLY BEFORE 20Z. RECEIVED A CALL FROM AN EMERGENCY
MANAGER IN SW WA JUST AFTER 20Z REGARDING A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR
KELSO AND LONGVIEW THAT PRODUCED SOME ROOF DAMAGE. KRTX DOPPLER RADAR
VELOCITY AND STORM-RELATIVE MOTION DISPLAYS INDICATED SOME DEGREE OF
ROTATION WITHIN THIS CELL. THIS ACTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OFF THE WA AND N OREGON COAST. SW-W 850 MB
FLOW OF 15-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GOOD OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN ELEVATED TERRAIN SUCH AS THE OREGON
COAST RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS...AND THE CASCADE ZONES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A
NEW LOW THAT DEVELOPS AROUND 40N 130W 00Z SAT. THE ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO SW OREGON FRI MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. THE NORTH
ZONES COULD BE DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRI AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT FRI
INTO SAT MORNING. MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR 12Z SAT CREATE A
HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW STRENGTH...TRACK AND
TIMING. THE GFS IS THE MOST CONSOLIDATED WITH THE SURFAFE LOW 12Z
SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A MORE ELONGATED LOW WITH MULTIPLE
LOW CENTERS. THE LATEST GFS IS NOW THE SLOWEST WITH THE LOW...WITH A
990 MB CENTER NEAR NEWPORT 18Z SAT. THE ECWMF AND NAM HAVE THE MAIN
LOW CENTER NEAR THE FAR N OREGON OR S WA COAST. THE WRF-GFS VALID 18Z
SAT HAS A SMALL CORE OF 60-70 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE S PART OF THE
CENTRAL COAST...BUT BY 21Z WIND GUST SPEEDS FALL OFF TO 40-50 KT. IT
ALSO SHOWS A SMALL CORE OF 40-50 KT GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AT 21Z. DESPITE ALL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS A HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPIONG
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A HEADS UP TO
THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND
MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS FALL TO NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS SUNDAY. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DRYING
PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
NEXT THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT WET AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THESE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. /27
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW
AT THIS POINT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE VFR TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...BUT DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS
TONIGHT...IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS
12Z FRIDAY. /NEUMAN /MH

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE NOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WATERS HOWEVER SEAS ARE STILL AROUND 10 TO 12 FEET SO
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING LESS WIND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW SEAS TO DROP
BELOW 10 FT FOR FRIDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND TRACK EITHER NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD JUST BEYOND OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS REMAINS LOW. MODELS SUGGEST LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT SEEMS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. REGARDLESS OF THE
TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS MODELS...GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT IF THE STRONGER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT. SEAS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME STEEP
AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE
SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DETAILS AT THIS
POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL RELAX
IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM
     TO 7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPDT 232143
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
243 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS ADJUSTMENT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE
PLUME AND THE LOSS OF THE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE
SHOWERS TO DECREASE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THERE HAVE BEEN STRAY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A STRAY STORM TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME
WILL LINGER FROM WALLOWA COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH GRANT COUNTY TO
DESCHUTES COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THESE
AREAS. A DEEPENING LOW WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE PLUME TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA DUE TO THIS WARM FRONT. THIS LOW LOOKS
MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL OREGON AND IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ADVISORIES, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 4500-5000 FEET WHILE BREEZY WINDS PERSIST. YET ONLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE BACK UP ABOVE 6000 FEET.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF
AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY. WHILE THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN
AND FORECAST DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH BKN-OVC SKIES WITH BASES BETWEEN 4000-10000 FEET
AND HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO IFR IN AREAS OF RAIN...MAINLY NEAR KRDM AND KBDN. SW-W WINDS 8-15
KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN
DIURNAL TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO THIN OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT CIRRUS SHOULD PERSIST. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  60  44  65 /  20  30  30  20
ALW  48  61  47  66 /  20  30  40  10
PSC  47  62  45  63 /  10  10  40  20
YKM  40  55  40  57 /  20  10  60  30
HRI  45  61  43  63 /  20  20  40  20
ELN  39  57  39  57 /  20  10  70  30
RDM  39  56  38  62 /  30  70  20  20
LGD  46  58  43  64 /  60  60  20  20
GCD  43  57  42  64 /  60  60  10  20
DLS  45  58  45  60 /  20  50  50  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82








000
FXUS65 KBOI 232034
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
234 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BOISE IS ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WHICH EXTENDS TO OUR WEST...AND INCLUDES
NEARLY ALL OF SE OREGON /EXCLUDING SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY/ AND SW
IDAHO...INCLUDING THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NORTH INTO THE UPPER
WEISER BASIN AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BOISE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...SO AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...INCLUDING MOUNTAIN HOME...JEROME...AND TWIN FALLS...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
QPF TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET. ACCUMULATING SNOWS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEYS...WHILE REMAINING COOL IN THE NORTH WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S. A WARMER AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERS
WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A DEEP SURFACE LOW /DOWN TO AROUND 990 MB/
NEAR THE PACNW COAST WILL ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY AND BAKER
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS /IN
THE 70S/ ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A
PROGRESSIVE UNSETTLED PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL COOL HIGHS TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE
5 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH WILL BRING EVEN COOLER AIR AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS. ACCORDING
TO MODELS THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY FURTHER NORTH...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF OREGON. SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IS EXPECTED TO END THE SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE AREA WEST AND NORTH OF KJER/KTWF. EXPECT
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE 7K TO 8K FT MSL. THE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN A NORTHWARD SHIFT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. SURFACE
WINDS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 KTS DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY 06Z. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO AROUND 30 KTS AT
10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY ON SATURDAY...THEN MORE SHOWERS
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231934
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1235 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY SW TO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASES AND WILL BE CANCELING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. RAINFALL AT THE COAST RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT SO FAR AROUND 5 INCHES AT RED
MOUND AND 4.5 INCHES NEAR CAPE FERRELO. THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE
CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF...FOR SW OREGON UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALL DAY FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA..WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS MTNS, AS
WELL AS MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
IMPORTANT AND WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VERY
STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
DRAPED ALONG AND NEAR THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES. THIS STALLED FRONT IS CAUSING TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS AREAS, AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ELSEWHERE. IN THE VALLEYS IN THIS SAME AREA CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF
VFR AND IFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN, BUT EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL EVENTUALLY REDEVELOP BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT CURRENT REDUCED
CIGS/VIS WITH THE FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD KLMT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR BEFORE ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TODAY DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG TO VERY STRONG
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND AND SEAS MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ031.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/BTL/BPN










000
FXUS66 KMFR 231934
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1235 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY SW TO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASES AND WILL BE CANCELING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. RAINFALL AT THE COAST RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT SO FAR AROUND 5 INCHES AT RED
MOUND AND 4.5 INCHES NEAR CAPE FERRELO. THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE
CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF...FOR SW OREGON UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALL DAY FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA..WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS MTNS, AS
WELL AS MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
IMPORTANT AND WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VERY
STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
DRAPED ALONG AND NEAR THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES. THIS STALLED FRONT IS CAUSING TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS AREAS, AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ELSEWHERE. IN THE VALLEYS IN THIS SAME AREA CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF
VFR AND IFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN, BUT EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL EVENTUALLY REDEVELOP BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT CURRENT REDUCED
CIGS/VIS WITH THE FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD KLMT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR BEFORE ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TODAY DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG TO VERY STRONG
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND AND SEAS MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ031.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/BTL/BPN










000
FXUS66 KMFR 231934
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1235 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY SW TO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASES AND WILL BE CANCELING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. RAINFALL AT THE COAST RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT SO FAR AROUND 5 INCHES AT RED
MOUND AND 4.5 INCHES NEAR CAPE FERRELO. THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE
CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF...FOR SW OREGON UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALL DAY FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA..WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS MTNS, AS
WELL AS MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
IMPORTANT AND WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VERY
STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
DRAPED ALONG AND NEAR THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES. THIS STALLED FRONT IS CAUSING TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS AREAS, AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ELSEWHERE. IN THE VALLEYS IN THIS SAME AREA CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF
VFR AND IFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN, BUT EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL EVENTUALLY REDEVELOP BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT CURRENT REDUCED
CIGS/VIS WITH THE FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD KLMT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR BEFORE ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TODAY DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG TO VERY STRONG
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND AND SEAS MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ031.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/BTL/BPN










000
FXUS66 KMFR 231934
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1235 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY SW TO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASES AND WILL BE CANCELING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. RAINFALL AT THE COAST RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT SO FAR AROUND 5 INCHES AT RED
MOUND AND 4.5 INCHES NEAR CAPE FERRELO. THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE
CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF...FOR SW OREGON UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALL DAY FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA..WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS MTNS, AS
WELL AS MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
IMPORTANT AND WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VERY
STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
DRAPED ALONG AND NEAR THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES. THIS STALLED FRONT IS CAUSING TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS AREAS, AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ELSEWHERE. IN THE VALLEYS IN THIS SAME AREA CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF
VFR AND IFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN, BUT EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL EVENTUALLY REDEVELOP BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT CURRENT REDUCED
CIGS/VIS WITH THE FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD KLMT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR BEFORE ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TODAY DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG TO VERY STRONG
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND AND SEAS MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ031.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/BTL/BPN










000
FXUS66 KPDT 231728 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1028 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. IN ADDITION WEAK UPPER
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH WILL SEE MAINLY SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING OVER MOST, BUT NOT ALL, AREAS. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STRAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK, THOUGH DID EXTEND
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
INTO GRANT COUNTY. ALSO RAISED POPS OVER THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS
VALLEYS FOR THIS MORNING. OTHER UPDATES INCLUDED ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH
TEMPS, SKY COVER AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IS GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE FADES LATE IN
THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD (CATEGORICAL OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES)...AND IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN MANY AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL OREGON...THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 4500-5000 FEET LATE SUNDAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION ALSO TAPERS OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ANY
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE GFS AND
ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS STRENGTHENS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING
THE MID WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF DEEPENS A TROUGH OFFSHORE. I AM LEANING
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY CONSERVATIVE WITH
POPS AND TEMPERATURES AND KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
BKN-OVC SKIES WITH BASES BETWEEN 4000-10000 FEET AND HIGHER CLOUDS
ABOVE. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO IFR IN AREAS OF
RAIN...MAINLY NEAR KRDM AND KBDN. SW-W WINDS 8-15 KNOTS GUSTING TO
25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN DIURNAL TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THIN OUT
ON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT CIRRUS SHOULD PERSIST.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  47  60  43 /  60  20  30  40
ALW  64  50  61  48 /  60  20  30  40
PSC  67  47  61  45 /  40  10  10  40
YKM  60  41  57  41 /  40  20  20  50
HRI  66  46  61  43 /  50  20  20  40
ELN  61  39  55  41 /  40  20  10  60
RDM  61  39  58  39 /  60  30  70  20
LGD  60  47  58  43 /  80  40  60  20
GCD  60  43  57  42 /  70  40  60  10
DLS  63  45  59  46 /  50  20  50  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/85/82







000
FXUS66 KPQR 231626
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
923 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING VERY STRONG WIND TO THE COAST AND WINDY CONDITIONS
INLAND...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE STILL IN DOUBT. ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TODAY THRU SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH
MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. A LARGE SWATH OF COLD AIR CUMULUS OVER
THE NE PACIFIC WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT OVER THE AREA TODAY.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OFFSHORE WITHIN THIS CUMULUS
FIELD SO CANNOT RULE OUT A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SW-W 850 MB FLOW OF 15-25 KT WILL PROVIDE GOOD
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE...SW
WA WILLAPA HILLS...AND THE CASCADE ZONES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
ALL THE MODELS SHOW A NEW LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE
LONG WAVE TROUGH...THEN LIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
WHILE SOME DETAILS VARY AMONGST THE MODELS...THE MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR SOME MORE RAIN. MODELS THEN SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MORE WIND
AND RAIN. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE REGARDING THE
TIMING...TRACK AND OVERALL STRENGHT OF THIS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
THE LATEST NAM LOOKS TO BE THE QUICKEST MOVING THE LOW INTO THE S
WASHINGTON WATERS SAT AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS SLIGHLY SLOWER AND HAS
THE LOW CENTER INTO WRN WA BY 00Z SUN. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST BUT
ALSO HAS THE LOW CENTER ALONG THE WA COASTLINE AS WELL. THERE IS
REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THE COASTAL AREAS COULD GET ANOTHER SHOT
OF HIGH WIND. THE BIGGER QUESTION MARK IS HOW MUCH WIND THE INLAND
AREAS RECEIVE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND GUSTS
FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE SAT AFTEROON. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED
AS A HEADS UP TO THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS SYSTEM AND MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 FT SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO CASCADE PASSES MAY
SEE SOME SNOW BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH MUCH LESS AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS. IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH
THE 00Z EURO IN THE UPPER LEVELS STARTING MIDWEEK. BOWEN/TJ

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND MVFR CONDITIONS
INLAND...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY TODAY AS
SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN SPREADS OVER THE REGION. THE VFR TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY
DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PERIODS OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL OCCASIONALLY
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
STORY. THE VFR TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT DEPENDING
ON BREAKS IN THE MID TO UPPER CLOUDS TONIGHT...IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...AFTER SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LESS WIND TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND ALLOW SEAS TO DROP BELOW 10 FT FOR FRIDAY.

HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND TRACK EITHER NORTHWARD
OR NORTHEASTWARD JUST BEYOND OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE
SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL SO CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW. MODELS SUGGEST LANDFALL WILL OCCUR
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. IT
SEEMS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS MOST LIKELY. A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
REGARDLESS OF THE TRACKS PROVIDED BY VARIOUS MODELS...GALE FORCE
WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50 KT IF THE
STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK PANS OUT. SEAS WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY BECOME STEEP AND WIND DOMINATED...POSSIBLY REACHING
UPWARDS OF 20 FT LATE SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DETAILS AT THIS
POINT IN TIME REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MODELS DO SUGGEST SEAS WILL RELAX
IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. /NEUMAN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO
     7 AM PDT FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231616
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
916 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY SW TO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASES AND WILL BE CANCELING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. RAINFALL AT THE COAST RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT SO FAR AROUND 5 INCHES AT RED
MOUND AND 4.5 INCHES NEAR CAPE FERRELO. THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE
CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF...FOR SW OREGON UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALL DAY FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA..WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS MTNS, AS
WELL AS MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
IMPORTANT AND WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VERY
STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONT IS  BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG THE COAST, MVFR WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS HERE AND THERE. IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY AND THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AS WELL AS THE EAST
SIDE, VFR WILL PREVAIL, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WITHIN AREAS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. STEADY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. TONIGHT, INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH MID TONIGHT
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AND ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 0200 AM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. -CC/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE. A FRONT IS PUSHING
INTO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING RAIN WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AREAS OF MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND THEN SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND
ALONG THE COAST, EXPECT SHOWERS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND IT. DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING WITH PARTIAL
OBSCURATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH THE FRONT MOVING INLAND
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER. HOWEVER EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. /CC

MARINE...UPDATED 1045 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...WINDS HAVE
LOWERED BEHIND A FRONT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE 130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE
STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF
ROUND OF CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK. -SPILDE/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ031.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN







000
FXUS66 KMFR 231616
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
916 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY SW TO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASES AND WILL BE CANCELING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. RAINFALL AT THE COAST RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT SO FAR AROUND 5 INCHES AT RED
MOUND AND 4.5 INCHES NEAR CAPE FERRELO. THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE
CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF...FOR SW OREGON UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALL DAY FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA..WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS MTNS, AS
WELL AS MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
IMPORTANT AND WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VERY
STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONT IS  BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG THE COAST, MVFR WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS HERE AND THERE. IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY AND THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AS WELL AS THE EAST
SIDE, VFR WILL PREVAIL, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WITHIN AREAS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. STEADY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. TONIGHT, INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH MID TONIGHT
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AND ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 0200 AM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. -CC/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE. A FRONT IS PUSHING
INTO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING RAIN WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AREAS OF MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND THEN SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND
ALONG THE COAST, EXPECT SHOWERS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND IT. DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING WITH PARTIAL
OBSCURATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH THE FRONT MOVING INLAND
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER. HOWEVER EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. /CC

MARINE...UPDATED 1045 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...WINDS HAVE
LOWERED BEHIND A FRONT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE 130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE
STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF
ROUND OF CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK. -SPILDE/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ031.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN







000
FXUS66 KPDT 231554
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
854 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. IN ADDITION WEAK UPPER
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH WILL SEE MAINLY SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING OVER MOST, BUT NOT ALL, AREAS. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STRAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK, THOUGH DID EXTEND
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
INTO GRANT COUNTY. ALSO RAISED POPS OVER THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS
VALLEYS FOR THIS MORNING. OTHER UPDATES INCLUDED ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH
TEMPS, SKY COVER AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IS GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE FADES LATE IN
THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD (CATEGORICAL OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES)...AND IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN MANY AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL OREGON...THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 4500-5000 FEET LATE SUNDAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION ALSO TAPERS OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ANY
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE GFS AND
ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS STRENGTHENS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING
THE MID WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF DEEPENS A TROUGH OFFSHORE. I AM LEANING
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY CONSERVATIVE WITH
POPS AND TEMPERATURES AND KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH BKN-OVC SKIES WITH BASES BETWEEN 4000-10000 FEET AND
HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY NEAR KRDM AND KBDN. SW-W WINDS 8-15 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  47  60  43 /  60  20  30  40
ALW  64  50  61  48 /  60  20  30  40
PSC  67  47  61  45 /  40  10  10  40
YKM  60  41  57  41 /  40  20  20  50
HRI  66  46  61  43 /  50  20  20  40
ELN  61  39  55  41 /  40  20  10  60
RDM  61  39  58  39 /  60  30  70  20
LGD  60  47  58  43 /  80  40  60  20
GCD  60  43  57  42 /  70  40  60  10
DLS  63  45  59  46 /  50  20  50  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/85/82








000
FXUS65 KBOI 231546
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
946 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE
AND RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT-MODERATE
RAIN ENCOMPASSING SE OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO...WITH THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP NEAR MOUNTAIN HOME. THE LATEST MODELS
SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL NOT
MOVE ANY FURTHER SOUTH...THEREBY KEEPING IT DRY INTO THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO INCREASED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 1.5 INCH TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
7500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SNOW ABOVE 8K FT MSL. ELSEWHERE EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LOCALLY MVFR RAIN SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH OF KJER/KTWF CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE 5-15 KTS THEN MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO AROUND 30 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION DECREASING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ENDING FRIDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY SATURDAY...THEN MORE SHOWERS
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING
PRECIPITATION AND THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE
PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE
TRENDING HIGHER WITH QPF TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DIRECTING AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PLUME WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE AREA BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD FRIDAY VIA A WARM
FRONT. THE ONLY AREAS THAT MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP ARE THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. 700 MB WINDS OF
35-45KT FAVOR TERRAIN FOCUSED PRECIPITATION...WITH MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 1.25 INCH OF QPF. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN
OREGON LATER THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OVER 9000FT SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN HOME AND
7500FT MSL NORTH AND WEST OF MCCALL. BREEZY SURFACE WINDS SW
15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 35KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL DIG
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SENDING A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ENDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAPID CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH WARMING FRIDAY AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS WINDY BUT
MILD IN A WARM SECTOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THROUGH MID-DAY
SATURDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF WARM FRONTAL RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW THAT LIFTS NORTH FROM BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY COUNTIES
FRIDAY EVENING. MILD WARM SECTOR BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER
OREGON EARLY SAT. AND SW IDAHO MOST OF THE DAY...AHEAD OF
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTAL SHOWERS THAT BEGIN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BRING ABUNDANT SHEAR BUT BEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA SO NO
THUNDERSTORM MENTION NOW. BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY UNTIL
A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SW IDAHO PROBABLY SATURDAY
EVENING WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN 12Z PACKAGE. BREEZY AND COOLER
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES BY. MODEL AGREEMENT IS STILL
SIMILAR WITH DRIER NW FLOW MONDAY AND WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE W
FLOW TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GFS/EC
ARE NOT IN PHASE OVER THE INLAND NW THOUGH BOTH HAVE SOME
TROUGHING OFFSHORE /AS DOES THE GEFS. SO WENT NEAR CLIMO POPS NEAR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM




000
FXUS66 KPDT 231051 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
350 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TODAY. A SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH IS PULLING SHOWERS UP AND
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. THERE ARE ABUNDANT SHOWERS BEING SHOWN
ON RADAR IMAGERY WITH THE SATELLITE SHOWING THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE REGION VIA AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE. A
WAVE IS FORMING ALONG THIS BAND OF MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON
AND THIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND
CANNOT RULE OUT EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD TO THE IDAHO BORDER. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SO WILL ONLY GO WITH ISOLATED. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING UP
ACROSS THE CWA WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
THE COAST. THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND IT WILL BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE FADES
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD (CATEGORICAL OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES)...AND IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN MANY AREAS. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL OREGON...THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 4500-5000 FEET LATE
SUNDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AS PRECIPITATION ALSO TAPERS OFF BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.  ANY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS STRENGTHENS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. DURING THE MID WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF DEEPENS A TROUGH OFFSHORE.
I AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND TEMPERATURES AND KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSE
TO CLIMATOLOGY.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH BKN-OVC
SKIES WITH BASES BETWEEN 4000-10000 FEET AND HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE.
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY NEAR
KRDM AND KBDN. SW-W WINDS 8-15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  47  60  43 /  50  20  30  40
ALW  65  50  61  48 /  60  20  30  40
PSC  67  47  61  45 /  40  10  10  40
YKM  62  41  57  41 /  40  20  20  50
HRI  67  46  61  43 /  40  20  20  40
ELN  59  39  55  41 /  40  20  10  60
RDM  60  39  58  39 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  59  47  58  43 /  80  40  60  20
GCD  58  43  57  42 /  70  40  60  10
DLS  63  45  59  46 /  40  20  50  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85







000
FXUS65 KBOI 231011
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
411 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING
PRECIPITATION AND THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE
PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE
TRENDING HIGHER WITH QPF TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DIRECTING AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PLUME WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE AREA BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD FRIDAY VIA A WARM
FRONT. THE ONLY AREAS THAT MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP ARE THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. 700 MB WINDS OF
35-45KT FAVOR TERRAIN FOCUSED PRECIPITATION...WITH MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 1.25 INCH OF QPF. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN
OREGON LATER THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OVER 9000FT SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN HOME AND
7500FT MSL NORTH AND WEST OF MCCALL. BREEZY SURFACE WINDS SW
15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 35KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL DIG
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SENDING A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ENDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAPID CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH WARMING FRIDAY AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS WINDY BUT
MILD IN A WARM SECTOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THROUGH MID-DAY
SATURDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF WARM FRONTAL RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW THAT LIFTS NORTH FROM BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY COUNTIES
FRIDAY EVENING. MILD WARM SECTOR BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER
OREGON EARLY SAT. AND SW IDAHO MOST OF THE DAY...AHEAD OF
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTAL SHOWERS THAT BEGIN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BRING ABUNDANT SHEAR BUT BEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA SO NO
THUNDERSTORM MENTION NOW. BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY UNTIL
A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SW IDAHO PROBABLY SATURDAY
EVENING WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN 12Z PACKAGE. BREEZY AND COOLER
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES BY. MODEL AGREEMENT IS STILL
SIMILAR WITH DRIER NW FLOW MONDAY AND WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE W
FLOW TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GFS/EC
ARE NOT IN PHASE OVER THE INLAND NW THOUGH BOTH HAVE SOME
TROUGHING OFFSHORE /AS DOES THE GEFS. SO WENT NEAR CLIMO POPS NEAR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR RAIN WITH SNOW ABOVE 7000FT MSL...POSSIBLE IFR IN
KMYL. GENERALLY VFR SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM REO-MUO.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY SE 5-15KT IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...BREEZY SW 15-25KT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON...LIGHT WINDS MAGIC VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K
FEET MSL...WSW 30-45KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KPQR 231006
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
306 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR CUMULUS
OFFSHORE THAT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE NEXT RATHER
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH A BOUT OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST AND
POSSIBLY INLAND. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...THERE IS A
GOOD AREA OF COLD AIR CUMULUS AND SHOWERS WITH A BIT OF CONSISTENT
LIGHTNING OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THAT WILL SPREAD ONSHORE TODAY FOR
MORE SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...SO A THREAT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT THEN ALL THE MODELS SHOW A NEW
LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH...THEN
LIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. WHILE SOME DETAILS VARY
AMONGST THE MODELS...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME MORE RAIN
WHILE CAUSING EAST WINDS TO0 DEVELOP. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MORE RAIN. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND AS WELL. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS SYSTEM AND MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS IN THE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
BOWEN/TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EVERY 24 TO 48 HOURS. A WARM FRONT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 FT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SO CASCADE PASSES MAY SEE SOME SNOW BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT A
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASED RAIN. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH MUCH
LESS AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. IN FACT THE 00Z GFS IS ALMOST
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE 00Z EURO IN THE UPPER LEVELS
STARTING MIDWEEK. BOWEN/TJ

&&

.AVIATION...WITH THE COLD FRONT DOWN INTO SW OREGON THIS MORNING
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE SHOWERS ESP
BEFORE 03Z THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME OF THE
SHOWERS THROUGH 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...QUIETER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
FRI WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO
JUST UNDER 10 FT BY FRI.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITHE BOTH THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...A DEEP LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE SW FRI NIGHT...AND MOVE NE UP OFF THE OREGON COAST
SAT...AND INLAND OVER NW WA SAT NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN STORM FORCE
GUSTS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS BUILDING
AS HIGH AS 20 FT. A COASTAL JET WOULD LIKELY ENHANCE NEARSHORE
WINDS SAT EVENING.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     9 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&




000
FXUS66 KPDT 230920
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TODAY. A SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH IS PULLING SHOWERS UP AND
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. THERE ARE ABUNDANT SHOWERS BEING SHOWN
ON RADAR IMAGERY WITH THE SATELLITE SHOWING THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE REGION VIA AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE. A
WAVE IS FORMING ALONG THIS BAND OF MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON
AND THIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND
CANNOT RULE OUT EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD TO THE IDAHO BORDER. HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SO WILL ONLY GO WITH ISOLATED. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING UP
ACROSS THE CWA WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
THE COAST. THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND IT WILL BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE FADES
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD (CATEGORICAL OVER THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES)...AND IT WILL BE VERY WINDY IN MANY AREAS. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL OREGON...THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 4500-5000 FEET LATE
SUNDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AS PRECIPITATION ALSO TAPERS OFF BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.  ANY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS STRENGTHENS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. DURING THE MID WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF DEEPENS A TROUGH OFFSHORE.
I AM LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND TEMPERATURES AND KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSE
TO CLIMATOLOGY.  WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...OVERCAST SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME BROKEN ON
THURSDAY BUT REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS WILL LESSEN SOME
OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME 15 TO 25 MPH AND SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND
MIDDAY THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  47  60  43 /  50  20  30  40
ALW  65  50  61  48 /  60  20  30  40
PSC  67  47  61  45 /  40  10  10  40
YKM  62  41  57  41 /  40  20  20  50
HRI  67  46  61  43 /  40  20  20  40
ELN  59  39  55  41 /  40  20  10  60
RDM  60  39  58  39 /  40  30  70  20
LGD  59  47  58  43 /  80  40  60  20
GCD  58  43  57  42 /  70  40  60  10
DLS  63  45  59  46 /  40  20  50  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/85/85






000
FXUS66 KMFR 230800
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE. A FRONT IS PUSHING
INTO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING RAIN WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AREAS OF MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND THEN SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND
ALONG THE COAST, EXPECT SHOWERS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND IT. DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING WITH PARTIAL
OBSCURATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH THE FRONT MOVING INLAND
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER. HOWEVER EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1045 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...WINDS HAVE
LOWERED BEHIND A FRONT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE 130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE
STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF
ROUND OF CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK. -SPILDE/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
        8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

15/15/11





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities