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000
FXUS65 KBOI 230326
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
826 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAY GET A
QUICK INCH OR TWO ON GRASSY AREAS ACROSS THE WEST MAGIC VALLEY
SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 32F...SNOW SHOWERS THERE WILL
DECREASE TO SCATTERED FOR TWIN/JEROME BY 11 PM MST. MODERATE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NE OREGON MTNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF OWYHEE/TWIN FALLS
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND CENTRAL ID MTNS BEYOND SUNDAY
EVENING. POST COLD FRONTAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE 2-4 MB/3HRS ACROSS SW IDAHO THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
NW WINDS TO 10 MPH TO ONTARIO TOWARDS 11 PM BUT SNOW COVER DID NOT
ENTIRELY GO AWAY...SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST LESS THAN 10 MPH
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE GFS ARE
PREFERRED OVERNIGHT AS THEY CAPTURE THE 35MPH OVER TWIN FALLS AND
CALM TO 10 MPH OVER THE WEISER BASIN AND LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
PREV. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION....EXPECT SCATTERED MVFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
IN THE KTWF/KJER AREA UNTIL ABOUT 06Z. THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY
OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO INCLUDING KMYL WILL SEE SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 18Z.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE KBOI-KONO 06Z-18Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-
15 KTS EXCEPT 15-20 KTS IN THE KBKE AND KTWF/KJER AREAS UNTIL
ABOUT 06Z. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HELPING TO SCOUR AWAY MOST OF THE
INVERSION THAT HAS PLAGUED THE TREASURE VALLEY...AND MANY OTHER
SMALLER VALLEYS...THE PAST WEEK OR SO. WE FEEL WEAK INVERSION
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN THE EXTREME
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
A MODERATE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO MOST
OF THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS THIS EVENING RANGE FROM 4500 FEET IN THE
SOUTH TO 3500 FEET IN THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
DROP TO A RANGE OF 3400 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO 2700 FEET IN THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THIS
EVENING. FOG IS LIKELY IN SHELTERED MTN VALLEYS TONIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE USUAL AREAS NEAR MCCALL... BAKER CITY...AND IN THE
EXTREME LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK RIDGING TOMORROW...SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MTNS OF SW IDAHO AND NRN BAKER COUNTY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF
MONDAY. THE VALLEYS WILL BE DRY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPS ON
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
READINGS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO. CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE WESTERN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN SHOULD PROVIDE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS IS WHEN THE INVERSION WILL BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE VALLEY
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON SNOW COVER. AT THE MOMENT...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR COLDER TEMPS AND INVERSION FOG/STRATUS
BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE INVERSION FORECAST REMAINS LOW.
AFTER FRIDAY THE RIDGE APPEARS TO WEAKEN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH



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000
FXUS66 KPDT 222341 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
340 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LATEST IR SATL WAS SHOWING
COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS
HAD DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THIS SAME AREA AND WERE TRACKING EAST.
THE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWAS AND ALONG THE WA/OR CASCADES IN
A PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND
4K FEET WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THIS HEIGHT SUCH
AS IN TOLLGATE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER STORM WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THIS TOMORROW.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND EFFECT
THE REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE DRIER AIR INVADES THE REGION
EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER
MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. MUCH DRIER WEATHER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORM TRACK REMAINING TO THE NORTH. THE
RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A DEEP PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN NOW BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...RAIN AT KALW WILL CAUSE
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT HOUR. DUE TO INCREASED WIND AND BETTER
MIXING...DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO REFORM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME STEADY 5 TO
12 KTS SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  47  34  46 /  20  30  20  10
ALW  38  47  35  46 /  20  40  20  10
PSC  37  49  34  46 /  20  30  10  10
YKM  29  46  31  45 /  20  20  10  10
HRI  37  49  33  48 /  20  30  10  10
ELN  31  44  28  45 /  20  30  10  10
RDM  28  45  27  43 /  30  20  10  10
LGD  36  39  31  39 /  50  60  30  10
GCD  29  41  22  38 /  40  30  30  10
DLS  37  47  35  48 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/82/82






000
FXUS66 KPDT 222341 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
340 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LATEST IR SATL WAS SHOWING
COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS
HAD DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THIS SAME AREA AND WERE TRACKING EAST.
THE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWAS AND ALONG THE WA/OR CASCADES IN
A PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND
4K FEET WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THIS HEIGHT SUCH
AS IN TOLLGATE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER STORM WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THIS TOMORROW.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND EFFECT
THE REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE DRIER AIR INVADES THE REGION
EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER
MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. MUCH DRIER WEATHER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORM TRACK REMAINING TO THE NORTH. THE
RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A DEEP PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN NOW BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...RAIN AT KALW WILL CAUSE
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT HOUR. DUE TO INCREASED WIND AND BETTER
MIXING...DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO REFORM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME STEADY 5 TO
12 KTS SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  47  34  46 /  20  30  20  10
ALW  38  47  35  46 /  20  40  20  10
PSC  37  49  34  46 /  20  30  10  10
YKM  29  46  31  45 /  20  20  10  10
HRI  37  49  33  48 /  20  30  10  10
ELN  31  44  28  45 /  20  30  10  10
RDM  28  45  27  43 /  30  20  10  10
LGD  36  39  31  39 /  50  60  30  10
GCD  29  41  22  38 /  40  30  30  10
DLS  37  47  35  48 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/82/82






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000
FXUS66 KPQR 222256
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
256 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND LATE
TONIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SW
WASHINGTON SUNDAY MORNING. .MOVING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE
WILL BE A BREAK IN RAIN MONDAY BEFORE A WARMER SYSTEM BRINGS
ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.THE NEXT FRONT IS
EXPECTED THANKSGIVING NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FEW UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THIS EVENING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 4500 FEET. WEB CAMS SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS AT THE
WILLAMETTE...SANTIAM...AND TOMBSTONE PASSES WHICH ARE AT AROUND
5100...4800...AND 4200 FEET RESPECTIVELY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SNOW
LEVEL IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 4000 AND 4000 FEET. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
CHANGE VERY LITTLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS ARE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MORE SHOWERS OFFSHORE APPROACHING THE AREA. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED WITH THESE OFFSHORE SHOWERS AND HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 7PM. SINCE THESE SHOWERS MAY NOT
MAKE IT TO THE CASCADES UNTIL AROUND 9 PM AM HESITANT TO END THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT MIDNIGHT END
TIME...EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE A CONSIDERATE BREAK IN SHOWERS
BETWEEN 4 AND 9 PM.

THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. CLOUD BREAKS MAY LEAD TO
RADIATION COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTH OF SALEM. THE
NORTH IS LESS LIKELY TO HAVE FOG DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND
POSSIBLY CLOUDIER SKIES. THE CLOUDIER SKIES WILL BE DUE TO THE NEXT
APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

DESPITE THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT WILL SNEAK
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK WELL DEFINED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY YET...BUT THE MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN RAIN AT THE SW WASHINGTON SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

THE HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER WHERE
THE SW WASHINGTON COAST AND THE WILLAPA HILLS CAN EXPECT AROUND A
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES WILL SEE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS...AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 4000 FEET...AND POSSIBLY 4 TO 9 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
ADDITIONAL SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SW WASHINGTON CASCADES FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
4000 FEET.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE LESS FOR NW OREGON AND EXPECT AMOUNTS TO
BECOME GRADUALLY LESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH TOTALS FROM 0.40
INCH JUST NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER TO 0.10 INCHES ACROSS LANE COUNTY.

SHOWERS WILL DRAMATICALLY DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND EXPECT
MORE VALLEY FOG MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT NW
OREGON WILL BE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE TO THE SW AND ONE TO
THE NW. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARDS KEEPING THESE STORMS OFFSHORE
MONDAY AND HAVE REDUCED POPS QUITE A BIT. HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF
THESE TWO STORMS WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE COAST AND
CASCADES.

THE TWO WEAK STORMS MAY MERGE OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING AND PUSH
ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON THIS BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION AND RAISE SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE THE
PASSES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TJ

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING OUT ON TUESDAY.
THEY TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH WHICH JUSTIFIED
LOWERING THE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT KEEPING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
ALONG THE COAST. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A MUCH
STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD POSE A THREAT TO TRAVELERS RETURNING AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE STILL UNKNOWN AND WILL BE REFINED
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON IN
A SHOWERY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL
FORM OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH INCLUDING KEUG AND KSLE.
THINK IT WILL STAY WELL MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP VFR IN CONTROL AT THE
COAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR SITES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
WORK IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUN MORNING...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN
AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHERNMOST TAF SITES BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z. THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUN MORNING. A FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS IN
BY AROUND 18Z SUN. PYLE
&&

.MARINE...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EARLIER TODAY HAVE EASED SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE NOW AROUND 15 KT. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THAT WAS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LULL IN THE WINDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE YET
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS MORE SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON MON.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 12 TO 13 FT AND SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE A BIT MORE INTO THE MID
TEENS ON SUN. THE NEXT FRONT ON MON AND SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE
10 FT UNTIL MIDWEEK. THE LATEST ENP WAVE GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THEY FALL BELOW 10 FT TUE OR WED.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
     IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 2 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 222227
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LATEST IR SATL WAS SHOWING
COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS
HAD DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THIS SAME AREA AND WERE TRACKING EAST.
THE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWAS AND ALONG THE WA/OR CASCADES IN
A PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND
4K FEET WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THIS HEIGHT SUCH
AS IN TOLLGATE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER STORM WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THIS TOMORROW.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND EFFECT
THE REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE DRIER AIR INVADES THE REGION
EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER
MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. MUCH DRIER WEATHER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORM TRACK REMAINING TO THE NORTH. THE
RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A DEEP PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL BE UP
AND DOWN AGAIN TODAY AS MORE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
HOWEVER...DUE TO INCREASED WINDS AND BETTER MIXING...FOG WILL NOT BE
AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR BUT COULD
BRIEFLY BE MVFR IN THE RAIN OR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF EARLY EVENING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME STEADY 5 TO 12 KTS SUNDAY MORNING.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  47  34  46 /  20  30  20  10
ALW  38  47  35  46 /  20  40  20  10
PSC  37  49  34  46 /  20  30  10  10
YKM  29  46  31  45 /  20  20  10  10
HRI  37  49  33  48 /  20  30  10  10
ELN  31  44  28  45 /  20  30  10  10
RDM  28  45  27  43 /  30  20  10  10
LGD  36  39  31  39 /  50  60  30  10
GCD  29  41  22  38 /  40  30  30  10
DLS  37  47  35  48 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/82/82








000
FXUS66 KPDT 222227
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
210 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LATEST IR SATL WAS SHOWING
COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS
HAD DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THIS SAME AREA AND WERE TRACKING EAST.
THE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWAS AND ALONG THE WA/OR CASCADES IN
A PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND
4K FEET WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE THIS HEIGHT SUCH
AS IN TOLLGATE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER STORM WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THIS TOMORROW.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND EFFECT
THE REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE DRIER AIR INVADES THE REGION
EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER
MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. MUCH DRIER WEATHER
AND MILD TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORM TRACK REMAINING TO THE NORTH. THE
RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A DEEP PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL BE UP
AND DOWN AGAIN TODAY AS MORE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
HOWEVER...DUE TO INCREASED WINDS AND BETTER MIXING...FOG WILL NOT BE
AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR BUT COULD
BRIEFLY BE MVFR IN THE RAIN OR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF EARLY EVENING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME STEADY 5 TO 12 KTS SUNDAY MORNING.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  47  34  46 /  20  30  20  10
ALW  38  47  35  46 /  20  40  20  10
PSC  37  49  34  46 /  20  30  10  10
YKM  29  46  31  45 /  20  20  10  10
HRI  37  49  33  48 /  20  30  10  10
ELN  31  44  28  45 /  20  30  10  10
RDM  28  45  27  43 /  30  20  10  10
LGD  36  39  31  39 /  50  60  30  10
GCD  29  41  22  38 /  40  30  30  10
DLS  37  47  35  48 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/82/82








  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 222222
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
222 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP IN
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN COOS AND WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY AS A
COOL POOL ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS CREATED
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE SAME AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE 4000 FEET WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
LIKELY AROUND CRATER AND DIAMOND LAKE AREAS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS, BUT WERE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH MOST ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON THE GROUND, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP FOR THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS IF THERE`S ENOUGH CLEARING.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. IT`S NOT A SHARP
RIDGE, BUT RATHER FLAT, BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHIFT THE STORM
TRACK NORTH OF OUR AREA AND WE`LL END UP DRY. THE MODELS SHOW A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE NAM IS NOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH RESPECT TO QPF AMOUNTS. THE EC AND GFS SHOW LITTLE OR NOTHING.
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND THE EC CONTINUES
TO REMAIN DRY. GUT FEELING IS THE NAM MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE RISING AS THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY. FOR NOW
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE EC HINTS AT SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE WE`LL HAVE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MOST OF NOT ALL WESTSIDE VALLEYS GIVEN THAT WE
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ON THE GROUND AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE
TUESDAY MORNING AND PROBABLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY IN AN UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE HELD AT BAY TO OUR WEST DURING THE PERIOD, BUT INVERSIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG AND THUS VALLEY FOG IS STILL A GOOD BET.

THERE IS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE
AND THE ARRIVAL OF NEW PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT DETERMINSTIC RUNS WHICH SHOW A
TROUGH OR SERIES OF TROUGHS COMING INTO OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
WHILE SPREADS ARE STILL HIGHER THAN I WOULD LIKE TO SEE, THE SPREAD
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE TO DO WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS THAN THEIR
EXISTENCE. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO A
LOT HIGHER THAN CLIMO FOR POPS, BUT I DID RAISE POPS, ESPECIALLY
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AND VIS WILL
BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS, BUT BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
KEEP MOUNTAINS OBSCURED BY CLOUD THIS AFTERNOON. AS SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS DIMINISH TONIGHT, FOG IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY IN THE VALLEYS,
INCLUDING ALL TERMINALS. IT HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN ALL TAFS, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO GO WITH LIFR CIGS
AND VIS AT KRBG. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY, MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM
FROM SHORE. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. WESTERLY
SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS, BUT
THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BY THANKSGIVING DAY.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 222222
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
222 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP IN
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN COOS AND WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY AS A
COOL POOL ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS CREATED
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE SAME AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE 4000 FEET WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
LIKELY AROUND CRATER AND DIAMOND LAKE AREAS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS, BUT WERE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH MOST ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON THE GROUND, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP FOR THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS IF THERE`S ENOUGH CLEARING.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. IT`S NOT A SHARP
RIDGE, BUT RATHER FLAT, BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHIFT THE STORM
TRACK NORTH OF OUR AREA AND WE`LL END UP DRY. THE MODELS SHOW A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE NAM IS NOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH RESPECT TO QPF AMOUNTS. THE EC AND GFS SHOW LITTLE OR NOTHING.
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND THE EC CONTINUES
TO REMAIN DRY. GUT FEELING IS THE NAM MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE RISING AS THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY. FOR NOW
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THE EC HINTS AT SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE WE`LL HAVE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MOST OF NOT ALL WESTSIDE VALLEYS GIVEN THAT WE
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ON THE GROUND AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE
TUESDAY MORNING AND PROBABLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY IN AN UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE HELD AT BAY TO OUR WEST DURING THE PERIOD, BUT INVERSIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG AND THUS VALLEY FOG IS STILL A GOOD BET.

THERE IS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE
AND THE ARRIVAL OF NEW PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT DETERMINSTIC RUNS WHICH SHOW A
TROUGH OR SERIES OF TROUGHS COMING INTO OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
WHILE SPREADS ARE STILL HIGHER THAN I WOULD LIKE TO SEE, THE SPREAD
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE TO DO WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS THAN THEIR
EXISTENCE. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO A
LOT HIGHER THAN CLIMO FOR POPS, BUT I DID RAISE POPS, ESPECIALLY
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AND VIS WILL
BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS, BUT BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
KEEP MOUNTAINS OBSCURED BY CLOUD THIS AFTERNOON. AS SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS DIMINISH TONIGHT, FOG IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY IN THE VALLEYS,
INCLUDING ALL TERMINALS. IT HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN ALL TAFS, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO GO WITH LIFR CIGS
AND VIS AT KRBG. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY, MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM
FROM SHORE. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. WESTERLY
SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS, BUT
THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BY THANKSGIVING DAY.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 222144
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HELPING TO SCOUR AWAY MOST OF THE
INVERSION THAT HAS PLAGUED THE TREASURE VALLEY...AND MANY OTHER
SMALLER VALLEYS...THE PAST WEEK OR SO. WE FEEL WEAK INVERSION
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN THE EXTREME
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
A MODERATE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO MOST
OF THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS THIS EVENING RANGE FROM 4500 FEET IN THE
SOUTH TO 3500 FEET IN THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
DROP TO A RANGE OF 3400 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO 2700 FEET IN THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THIS
EVENING. FOG IS LIKELY IN SHELTERED MTN VALLEYS TONIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE USUAL AREAS NEAR MCCALL... BAKER CITY...AND IN THE
EXTREME LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK RIDGING TOMORROW...SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MTNS OF SW IDAHO AND NRN BAKER COUNTY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF
MONDAY. THE VALLEYS WILL BE DRY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPS ON
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
READINGS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO. CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE WESTERN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN SHOULD PROVIDE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS IS WHEN THE INVERSION WILL BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE VALLEY
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON SNOW COVER. AT THE MOMENT...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR COLDER TEMPS AND INVERSION FOG/STRATUS
BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE INVERSION FORECAST REMAINS LOW.
AFTER FRIDAY THE RIDGE APPEARS TO WEAKEN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW VFR. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE NV BORDER WILL
BE EXITING THE AREA BY 23Z. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS SE OREGON AND SHOULD BE INTO SW IDAHO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW TONIGHT WHILE THE VALLEYS REMAIN AS RAIN. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
EXIT THE REGION BY 06Z. EXPECT PATCHY IFR FOG IN THE VALLEYS AT
KBKE...KMYL AND BETWEEN KONO-KBOI AFTER 09Z SUNDAY. COULD SEE FOG
AT KBOI BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT. SURFACE WINDS
NORTHWEST 10-20KT...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS IN THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT EXCEPT IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHERE 10-20 KTS IS EXPECTED. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FEET MSL...NORTHWESTERLY 30-45KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS




000
FXUS66 KPDT 221740 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
940 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA
TODAY INCREASING PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WERE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED POCKETS
SUCH AS YKM BUT THIS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. A
WESTERLY FLOW WAS PRODUCING SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
YKM VALLEY AND COLUMBIA BASIN AND HAVE REDUCED POPS AND SKY COVER
ACROSS THIS AREA THIS MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH MODERATE RA WAS FALLING
AT RDM AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF OVER CENTRAL OREGON TODAY.
THE PCPN WAS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION THAT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH
MAY PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AND HAVE
INCREASED WINDS AS WELL AS AFTN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL BE UP AND DOWN AGAIN TODAY AS
MORE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...DUE TO INCREASED WINDS AND
BETTER MIXING...FOG WILL NOT BE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR BUT COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR IN THE RAIN OR
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF EARLY EVENING WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME STEADY 5 TO 12 KTS
SUNDAY MORNING.  82

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 400 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION THIS MORNING. AREA OF STEADY RAIN OVER NORTHEAST OREGON WILL
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE CASCADES. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SEEN ON SATELLITE
OFFSHORE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER TODAY AND EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY THE CASCADES AND BLUES. IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY TODAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL OVER
THE CASCADES AND BLUES. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WASHINGTON
CASCADES LOOK TO PICK UP THE MOST PRECIP WITH THIS ONE AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGHS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS MOSTLY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
94

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DIVERGE FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS BUT NOT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  35  47  34 /  40  20  30  20
ALW  50  37  47  35 /  40  20  30  20
PSC  49  36  49  34 /  20  20  30  10
YKM  48  29  46  31 /  20  20  30  10
HRI  50  36  49  33 /  30  20  30  10
ELN  44  29  44  28 /  30  20  30  10
RDM  46  27  45  27 /  70  30  20  10
LGD  48  32  39  31 /  70  50  60  30
GCD  46  28  41  22 /  70  40  40  30
DLS  45  36  47  35 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 221740 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
940 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA
TODAY INCREASING PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WERE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED POCKETS
SUCH AS YKM BUT THIS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. A
WESTERLY FLOW WAS PRODUCING SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
YKM VALLEY AND COLUMBIA BASIN AND HAVE REDUCED POPS AND SKY COVER
ACROSS THIS AREA THIS MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH MODERATE RA WAS FALLING
AT RDM AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF OVER CENTRAL OREGON TODAY.
THE PCPN WAS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION THAT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH
MAY PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AND HAVE
INCREASED WINDS AS WELL AS AFTN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL BE UP AND DOWN AGAIN TODAY AS
MORE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...DUE TO INCREASED WINDS AND
BETTER MIXING...FOG WILL NOT BE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR BUT COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR IN THE RAIN OR
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF EARLY EVENING WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME STEADY 5 TO 12 KTS
SUNDAY MORNING.  82

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 400 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION THIS MORNING. AREA OF STEADY RAIN OVER NORTHEAST OREGON WILL
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE CASCADES. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SEEN ON SATELLITE
OFFSHORE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER TODAY AND EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY THE CASCADES AND BLUES. IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY TODAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL OVER
THE CASCADES AND BLUES. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WASHINGTON
CASCADES LOOK TO PICK UP THE MOST PRECIP WITH THIS ONE AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGHS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS MOSTLY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
94

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DIVERGE FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS BUT NOT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  35  47  34 /  40  20  30  20
ALW  50  37  47  35 /  40  20  30  20
PSC  49  36  49  34 /  20  20  30  10
YKM  48  29  46  31 /  20  20  30  10
HRI  50  36  49  33 /  30  20  30  10
ELN  44  29  44  28 /  30  20  30  10
RDM  46  27  45  27 /  70  30  20  10
LGD  48  32  39  31 /  70  50  60  30
GCD  46  28  41  22 /  70  40  40  30
DLS  45  36  47  35 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 221740 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
940 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA
TODAY INCREASING PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WERE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED POCKETS
SUCH AS YKM BUT THIS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. A
WESTERLY FLOW WAS PRODUCING SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
YKM VALLEY AND COLUMBIA BASIN AND HAVE REDUCED POPS AND SKY COVER
ACROSS THIS AREA THIS MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH MODERATE RA WAS FALLING
AT RDM AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF OVER CENTRAL OREGON TODAY.
THE PCPN WAS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION THAT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH
MAY PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AND HAVE
INCREASED WINDS AS WELL AS AFTN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL BE UP AND DOWN AGAIN TODAY AS
MORE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...DUE TO INCREASED WINDS AND
BETTER MIXING...FOG WILL NOT BE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR BUT COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR IN THE RAIN OR
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF EARLY EVENING WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME STEADY 5 TO 12 KTS
SUNDAY MORNING.  82

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 400 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION THIS MORNING. AREA OF STEADY RAIN OVER NORTHEAST OREGON WILL
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE CASCADES. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SEEN ON SATELLITE
OFFSHORE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER TODAY AND EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY THE CASCADES AND BLUES. IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY TODAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL OVER
THE CASCADES AND BLUES. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WASHINGTON
CASCADES LOOK TO PICK UP THE MOST PRECIP WITH THIS ONE AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGHS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS MOSTLY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
94

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DIVERGE FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS BUT NOT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  35  47  34 /  40  20  30  20
ALW  50  37  47  35 /  40  20  30  20
PSC  49  36  49  34 /  20  20  30  10
YKM  48  29  46  31 /  20  20  30  10
HRI  50  36  49  33 /  30  20  30  10
ELN  44  29  44  28 /  30  20  30  10
RDM  46  27  45  27 /  70  30  20  10
LGD  48  32  39  31 /  70  50  60  30
GCD  46  28  41  22 /  70  40  40  30
DLS  45  36  47  35 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 221740 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
940 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA
TODAY INCREASING PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WERE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED POCKETS
SUCH AS YKM BUT THIS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. A
WESTERLY FLOW WAS PRODUCING SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
YKM VALLEY AND COLUMBIA BASIN AND HAVE REDUCED POPS AND SKY COVER
ACROSS THIS AREA THIS MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH MODERATE RA WAS FALLING
AT RDM AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF OVER CENTRAL OREGON TODAY.
THE PCPN WAS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION THAT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH
MAY PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AND HAVE
INCREASED WINDS AS WELL AS AFTN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL BE UP AND DOWN AGAIN TODAY AS
MORE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...DUE TO INCREASED WINDS AND
BETTER MIXING...FOG WILL NOT BE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR BUT COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR IN THE RAIN OR
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF EARLY EVENING WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME STEADY 5 TO 12 KTS
SUNDAY MORNING.  82

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 400 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION THIS MORNING. AREA OF STEADY RAIN OVER NORTHEAST OREGON WILL
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE CASCADES. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SEEN ON SATELLITE
OFFSHORE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER TODAY AND EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY THE CASCADES AND BLUES. IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY TODAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL OVER
THE CASCADES AND BLUES. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WASHINGTON
CASCADES LOOK TO PICK UP THE MOST PRECIP WITH THIS ONE AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGHS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS MOSTLY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
94

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DIVERGE FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS BUT NOT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  35  47  34 /  40  20  30  20
ALW  50  37  47  35 /  40  20  30  20
PSC  49  36  49  34 /  20  20  30  10
YKM  48  29  46  31 /  20  20  30  10
HRI  50  36  49  33 /  30  20  30  10
ELN  44  29  44  28 /  30  20  30  10
RDM  46  27  45  27 /  70  30  20  10
LGD  48  32  39  31 /  70  50  60  30
GCD  46  28  41  22 /  70  40  40  30
DLS  45  36  47  35 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/






000
FXUS66 KPQR 221729
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
929 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER A COOLER AIR
MASS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS JUST BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE
PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT
TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED ONSHORE THIS MORNING
PROVIDING SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS
BAND HAS NOW PUSHED INLAND AND IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT CONTINUED AS THE BAND MOVED INLAND
AS THE WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY ADDED TO THE
INSTABILITY AND HELPED TRIGGER THE COASTAL STORMS. THE INSTABILITY
MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST THROUGH
THE EAST EDGE OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SNOW LEVELS HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
WEB CAMS SUGGESTING THE SNOW LEVEL IS CURRENTLY AROUND 4500 FEET. WEB
CAMS SHOW ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE SANTIAM AND WILLAMETTE PASSES.
THE RAIN BAND THAT IS OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY NOW WILL MOVE OVER
THE CASCADES LATER THIS MORNING...AND HELP SNOW TOTALS FOR THE
CASCADES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR 5-10 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 3500-4000 FT AND POSSIBLY A FOOT OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FT
BY TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES...THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES...AROUND 4500 FEET. THERE WILL
NOT BE AS MUCH PRECIPITATION...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER PRODUCT. HOWEVER...WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
AT THE POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE.
TJ

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS AS A DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DROPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TJ/27

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS HOLD
ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...YET THE
GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD
REMAIN UNDER DAMP AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE AND BREAK IT DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SEASONAL WEATHER AROUND FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD AS NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PYLE/27

&&

.AVIATION...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A FEW
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS MANAGED TO FORM EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
OVER THE PAST HOUR. WE WILL REMAIN IN A SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE DURING ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE BEST THREAT ALONG THE COAST. BASED ON THE PATCHY FOG THAT WAS
OBSERVED THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR
EARLY SUN MORNING. WILL ADD A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW
STRATUS FOR WITH THE 18Z SET OF TAFS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN OCCASIONAL
BRIEF MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS MAY AFFECT THE
TERMINAL EARLY SUN MORNING. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN 30 KT
TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT IN GENERAL WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DECREASE. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL SKIRT
THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BRING WIND GUSTS BACK UP INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND RISE BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS ON SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS ON
MON...LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
AND KEEPING SEAS ABOVE 10 FT. SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW 10 FT
BY TUE OR WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A
SLOWER MOVING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS LATE IN
THE WEEK. PYLE/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
     IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR

     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 221729
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
929 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER A COOLER AIR
MASS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS JUST BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE
PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT
TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED ONSHORE THIS MORNING
PROVIDING SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS
BAND HAS NOW PUSHED INLAND AND IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT CONTINUED AS THE BAND MOVED INLAND
AS THE WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY ADDED TO THE
INSTABILITY AND HELPED TRIGGER THE COASTAL STORMS. THE INSTABILITY
MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST THROUGH
THE EAST EDGE OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SNOW LEVELS HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
WEB CAMS SUGGESTING THE SNOW LEVEL IS CURRENTLY AROUND 4500 FEET. WEB
CAMS SHOW ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE SANTIAM AND WILLAMETTE PASSES.
THE RAIN BAND THAT IS OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY NOW WILL MOVE OVER
THE CASCADES LATER THIS MORNING...AND HELP SNOW TOTALS FOR THE
CASCADES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR 5-10 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 3500-4000 FT AND POSSIBLY A FOOT OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FT
BY TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES...THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES...AROUND 4500 FEET. THERE WILL
NOT BE AS MUCH PRECIPITATION...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER PRODUCT. HOWEVER...WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
AT THE POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE.
TJ

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS AS A DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DROPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TJ/27

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS HOLD
ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...YET THE
GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD
REMAIN UNDER DAMP AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE AND BREAK IT DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SEASONAL WEATHER AROUND FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD AS NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PYLE/27

&&

.AVIATION...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A FEW
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS MANAGED TO FORM EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
OVER THE PAST HOUR. WE WILL REMAIN IN A SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE DURING ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE BEST THREAT ALONG THE COAST. BASED ON THE PATCHY FOG THAT WAS
OBSERVED THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR
EARLY SUN MORNING. WILL ADD A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW
STRATUS FOR WITH THE 18Z SET OF TAFS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN OCCASIONAL
BRIEF MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS MAY AFFECT THE
TERMINAL EARLY SUN MORNING. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN 30 KT
TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT IN GENERAL WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DECREASE. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL SKIRT
THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BRING WIND GUSTS BACK UP INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND RISE BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS ON SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS ON
MON...LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
AND KEEPING SEAS ABOVE 10 FT. SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW 10 FT
BY TUE OR WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A
SLOWER MOVING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS LATE IN
THE WEEK. PYLE/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
     IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR

     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 221729
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
929 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER A COOLER AIR
MASS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS JUST BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE
PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT
TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED ONSHORE THIS MORNING
PROVIDING SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS
BAND HAS NOW PUSHED INLAND AND IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT CONTINUED AS THE BAND MOVED INLAND
AS THE WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY ADDED TO THE
INSTABILITY AND HELPED TRIGGER THE COASTAL STORMS. THE INSTABILITY
MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST THROUGH
THE EAST EDGE OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SNOW LEVELS HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
WEB CAMS SUGGESTING THE SNOW LEVEL IS CURRENTLY AROUND 4500 FEET. WEB
CAMS SHOW ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE SANTIAM AND WILLAMETTE PASSES.
THE RAIN BAND THAT IS OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY NOW WILL MOVE OVER
THE CASCADES LATER THIS MORNING...AND HELP SNOW TOTALS FOR THE
CASCADES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR 5-10 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 3500-4000 FT AND POSSIBLY A FOOT OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FT
BY TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES...THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES...AROUND 4500 FEET. THERE WILL
NOT BE AS MUCH PRECIPITATION...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER PRODUCT. HOWEVER...WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
AT THE POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE.
TJ

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS AS A DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DROPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TJ/27

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS HOLD
ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...YET THE
GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD
REMAIN UNDER DAMP AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE AND BREAK IT DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SEASONAL WEATHER AROUND FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD AS NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PYLE/27

&&

.AVIATION...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A FEW
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS MANAGED TO FORM EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
OVER THE PAST HOUR. WE WILL REMAIN IN A SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE DURING ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE BEST THREAT ALONG THE COAST. BASED ON THE PATCHY FOG THAT WAS
OBSERVED THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR
EARLY SUN MORNING. WILL ADD A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW
STRATUS FOR WITH THE 18Z SET OF TAFS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN OCCASIONAL
BRIEF MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS MAY AFFECT THE
TERMINAL EARLY SUN MORNING. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN 30 KT
TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT IN GENERAL WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DECREASE. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL SKIRT
THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BRING WIND GUSTS BACK UP INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND RISE BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS ON SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS ON
MON...LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
AND KEEPING SEAS ABOVE 10 FT. SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW 10 FT
BY TUE OR WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A
SLOWER MOVING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS LATE IN
THE WEEK. PYLE/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
     IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR

     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 221729
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
929 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER A COOLER AIR
MASS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS JUST BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE
PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT
TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED ONSHORE THIS MORNING
PROVIDING SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS
BAND HAS NOW PUSHED INLAND AND IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT CONTINUED AS THE BAND MOVED INLAND
AS THE WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY ADDED TO THE
INSTABILITY AND HELPED TRIGGER THE COASTAL STORMS. THE INSTABILITY
MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST THROUGH
THE EAST EDGE OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SNOW LEVELS HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
WEB CAMS SUGGESTING THE SNOW LEVEL IS CURRENTLY AROUND 4500 FEET. WEB
CAMS SHOW ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE SANTIAM AND WILLAMETTE PASSES.
THE RAIN BAND THAT IS OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY NOW WILL MOVE OVER
THE CASCADES LATER THIS MORNING...AND HELP SNOW TOTALS FOR THE
CASCADES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR 5-10 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 3500-4000 FT AND POSSIBLY A FOOT OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FT
BY TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES...THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES...AROUND 4500 FEET. THERE WILL
NOT BE AS MUCH PRECIPITATION...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER PRODUCT. HOWEVER...WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
AT THE POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE.
TJ

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS AS A DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DROPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ZONES. TJ/27

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS HOLD
ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...YET THE
GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD
REMAIN UNDER DAMP AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE AND BREAK IT DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SEASONAL WEATHER AROUND FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD AS NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PYLE/27

&&

.AVIATION...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A FEW
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS MANAGED TO FORM EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
OVER THE PAST HOUR. WE WILL REMAIN IN A SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE DURING ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE BEST THREAT ALONG THE COAST. BASED ON THE PATCHY FOG THAT WAS
OBSERVED THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE OUT A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR
EARLY SUN MORNING. WILL ADD A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW
STRATUS FOR WITH THE 18Z SET OF TAFS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN OCCASIONAL
BRIEF MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS MAY AFFECT THE
TERMINAL EARLY SUN MORNING. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN 30 KT
TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT IN GENERAL WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DECREASE. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL SKIRT
THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BRING WIND GUSTS BACK UP INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND RISE BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS ON SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS ON
MON...LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
AND KEEPING SEAS ABOVE 10 FT. SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW 10 FT
BY TUE OR WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A
SLOWER MOVING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS LATE IN
THE WEEK. PYLE/NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR CASCADES
     IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR

     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 221714
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
914 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND PLENTY
OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A MOIST WEST FLOW. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR 5000 FEET AND ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL FURTHER TO AROUND 4000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WAS SNOWING EARLIER AT DIAMOND AND CRATER LAKE AND WEB CAMS
EARLIER INDICATED A FEW INCHES HAD ACCUMULATED. ALSO IT`S SNOWING
NEAR CHEMULT, BUT SO FAR NOTHING HAS STUCK TO THE ROADS. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND THE FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
GOOD OROGRAPHIC FLOW ALONG THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. QPF AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS LOOK GOOD, SO WE WON`T MAKE
ANY ADJUSTMENTS. HOWEVER DID ADJUST SNOW LEVELS DOWN FOR THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SHOWERS WILL DECREASE WITH MOST ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
-PETRUCELLI




&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINATE CONDITION TODAY DUE TO SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH PARTIAL OBSCUATIONS. HOWEVER TEMPORARY VFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN SHOWERS. FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 4000
FEET. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG, SO MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY CAUSING SOME BUMPY RIDES INTO AND OUT OF THE
TERMINALS. IF THERE`S ENOUGH CLEARING TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
COULD DEVELOP WITH LIFR CIGS/VIS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY, MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM
FROM SHORE. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. WESTERLY
SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS, BUT
THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BY THANKSGIVING DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A 150 KNOT JET STREAM IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT THE 300 MB LEVEL OVER THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER AREA.
WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND NOW OVER AND SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, WE`RE MOSTLY IN THE SHOWERY
PORTION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM. RADAR RETURNS AT ONE POINT
OVERNIGHT WERE MOVING EASTWARD A 72 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONE
HOUR RAIN RATES OF 0.25" TO 0.50" AN INCH. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND ARE ENHANCING AS THE ARE
FORCED UPWARD BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE LAST HOUR WEST OF CAPE BLANCO.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WERE IMPRESSIVE IN SOME
AREAS AND LESSER THAN EXPECTED IN OTHERS, WITH RED MOUND RECEIVING OVER
5 INCHES AND A CITIZEN`S WEATHER STATION IN THE BROOKINGS AREA
REPORTING NEARLY 6.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL. HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY
AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM AROUND 0.40" IN MEDFORD TO AROUND AN INCH
IN THE EAGLE POINT AND EVANS CREEK AREAS. WINDS WERE STRONG, AS
EXPECTED, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 75 MPH RANGE AT FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

TODAY WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND THE JET STREAM LINGERS, SLOWLY
DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. A WIND ADVISORY STILL REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SUMMER LAKE AREA AND HIGH TERRAIN OF THE EAST
SIDE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW LEVELS ARE A BIT
TRICKY RIGHT NOW, AS THEY HAVE HELD IN THE 6KFT TO 7KFT RANGE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE STORM IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA, BUT APPEAR TO
HAVE RISEN TO 7-8KFT ELSEWHERE. THERE`S CLEARLY COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING FROM THE NORTHWEST, MORE SO ALOFT THAN AT THE SURFACE.
SO, SUSPECT THE PICTURE WILL BE CLEARER AT SUNRISE, WHEN ROAD
CAMERAS WILL TELL US MORE. IT APPEARS WET SNOW IS LIKELY FALLING
IN THE DIAMOND LAKE AREA NOW. WE EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION SLOWLY DIMINISHES. MOST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT AND ABOVE 4KFT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHNACE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF, FOR THE MOST PART. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WE DO EXPECT SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT IT WILL BE LIGHT WHERE
IT DOES OCCUR. WARMING ALOFT IS LIKELY TO TRAP COOLER AIR IN THE
VALLEYS WITH TIME, BUT INCREASING WINDS ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHOULD PREVENT AIR STAGNATION FROM BEING A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THE PATTERN PROGRESSING BACK TO AN ACTIVE
ONE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

AVIATION...FOR THE 22/06Z TAF CYCLE...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG
THE COAST. WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALOFT, THERE CAN STILL BE
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE CAUSING SOME BUMPY RIDES INTO AND OUT
OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY BEHIND IT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT TERRAIN WILL REMAIN OBSCURED, ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST-FACING SLOPES WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO 4500-5500 FEET. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY, MAINLY
BEYOND 10 NM. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS
MORNING. WESTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-623-624.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.

$$

MAP/MAP/MAP



000
FXUS66 KMFR 221714
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
914 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND PLENTY
OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A MOIST WEST FLOW. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR 5000 FEET AND ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL FURTHER TO AROUND 4000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WAS SNOWING EARLIER AT DIAMOND AND CRATER LAKE AND WEB CAMS
EARLIER INDICATED A FEW INCHES HAD ACCUMULATED. ALSO IT`S SNOWING
NEAR CHEMULT, BUT SO FAR NOTHING HAS STUCK TO THE ROADS. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND THE FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
GOOD OROGRAPHIC FLOW ALONG THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. QPF AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS LOOK GOOD, SO WE WON`T MAKE
ANY ADJUSTMENTS. HOWEVER DID ADJUST SNOW LEVELS DOWN FOR THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SHOWERS WILL DECREASE WITH MOST ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
-PETRUCELLI




&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINATE CONDITION TODAY DUE TO SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH PARTIAL OBSCUATIONS. HOWEVER TEMPORARY VFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN SHOWERS. FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 4000
FEET. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG, SO MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY CAUSING SOME BUMPY RIDES INTO AND OUT OF THE
TERMINALS. IF THERE`S ENOUGH CLEARING TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
COULD DEVELOP WITH LIFR CIGS/VIS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY, MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM
FROM SHORE. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. WESTERLY
SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS, BUT
THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BY THANKSGIVING DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A 150 KNOT JET STREAM IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT THE 300 MB LEVEL OVER THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER AREA.
WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND NOW OVER AND SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, WE`RE MOSTLY IN THE SHOWERY
PORTION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM. RADAR RETURNS AT ONE POINT
OVERNIGHT WERE MOVING EASTWARD A 72 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONE
HOUR RAIN RATES OF 0.25" TO 0.50" AN INCH. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND ARE ENHANCING AS THE ARE
FORCED UPWARD BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE LAST HOUR WEST OF CAPE BLANCO.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WERE IMPRESSIVE IN SOME
AREAS AND LESSER THAN EXPECTED IN OTHERS, WITH RED MOUND RECEIVING OVER
5 INCHES AND A CITIZEN`S WEATHER STATION IN THE BROOKINGS AREA
REPORTING NEARLY 6.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL. HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY
AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM AROUND 0.40" IN MEDFORD TO AROUND AN INCH
IN THE EAGLE POINT AND EVANS CREEK AREAS. WINDS WERE STRONG, AS
EXPECTED, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 75 MPH RANGE AT FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

TODAY WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND THE JET STREAM LINGERS, SLOWLY
DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. A WIND ADVISORY STILL REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SUMMER LAKE AREA AND HIGH TERRAIN OF THE EAST
SIDE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW LEVELS ARE A BIT
TRICKY RIGHT NOW, AS THEY HAVE HELD IN THE 6KFT TO 7KFT RANGE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE STORM IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA, BUT APPEAR TO
HAVE RISEN TO 7-8KFT ELSEWHERE. THERE`S CLEARLY COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING FROM THE NORTHWEST, MORE SO ALOFT THAN AT THE SURFACE.
SO, SUSPECT THE PICTURE WILL BE CLEARER AT SUNRISE, WHEN ROAD
CAMERAS WILL TELL US MORE. IT APPEARS WET SNOW IS LIKELY FALLING
IN THE DIAMOND LAKE AREA NOW. WE EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION SLOWLY DIMINISHES. MOST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT AND ABOVE 4KFT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHNACE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF, FOR THE MOST PART. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WE DO EXPECT SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT IT WILL BE LIGHT WHERE
IT DOES OCCUR. WARMING ALOFT IS LIKELY TO TRAP COOLER AIR IN THE
VALLEYS WITH TIME, BUT INCREASING WINDS ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHOULD PREVENT AIR STAGNATION FROM BEING A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THE PATTERN PROGRESSING BACK TO AN ACTIVE
ONE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

AVIATION...FOR THE 22/06Z TAF CYCLE...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG
THE COAST. WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALOFT, THERE CAN STILL BE
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE CAUSING SOME BUMPY RIDES INTO AND OUT
OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY BEHIND IT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT TERRAIN WILL REMAIN OBSCURED, ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST-FACING SLOPES WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO 4500-5500 FEET. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY, MAINLY
BEYOND 10 NM. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS
MORNING. WESTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-623-624.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.

$$

MAP/MAP/MAP




000
FXUS66 KPDT 221658 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
855 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA
TODAY INCREASING PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WERE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED POCKETS
SUCH AS YKM BUT THIS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. A
WESTERLY FLOW WAS PRODUCING SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
YKM VALLEY AND COLUMBIA BASIN AND HAVE REDUCED POPS AND SKY COVER
ACROSS THIS AREA THIS MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH MODERATE RA WAS FALLING
AT RDM AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF OVER CENTRAL OREGON TODAY.
THE PCPN WAS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION THAT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH
MAY PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AND HAVE
INCREASED WINDS AS WELL AS AFTN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 400 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION THIS MORNING. AREA OF STEADY RAIN OVER NORTHEAST OREGON WILL
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE CASCADES. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SEEN ON SATELLITE
OFFSHORE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER TODAY AND EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY THE CASCADES AND BLUES. IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY TODAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL OVER
THE CASCADES AND BLUES. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WASHINGTON
CASCADES LOOK TO PICK UP THE MOST PRECIP WITH THIS ONE AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGHS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS MOSTLY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
94

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DIVERGE FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS BUT NOT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT KYKM
AND KPSC THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING
AS WINDS INCREASE. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING BUT PICK
UP AGAIN BY MIDDAY MAINLY ACROSS OREGON. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY VFR BUT COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR IN THE RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AT THE TAF SITES BUT WILL BE
STRONGEST AT KPDT...KALW...AND KPSC WITH SW-W WIND OF 15-30 KTS INTO
THIS EVENING 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  35  47  34 /  40  20  30  20
ALW  50  37  47  35 /  40  20  30  20
PSC  49  36  49  34 /  20  20  30  10
YKM  48  29  46  31 /  20  20  30  10
HRI  50  36  49  33 /  30  20  30  10
ELN  44  29  44  28 /  30  20  30  10
RDM  46  27  45  27 /  70  30  20  10
LGD  48  32  39  31 /  70  50  60  30
GCD  46  28  41  22 /  70  40  40  30
DLS  45  36  47  35 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/








000
FXUS66 KPDT 221658 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
855 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE TWO STATE AREA
TODAY INCREASING PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WERE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED POCKETS
SUCH AS YKM BUT THIS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. A
WESTERLY FLOW WAS PRODUCING SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
YKM VALLEY AND COLUMBIA BASIN AND HAVE REDUCED POPS AND SKY COVER
ACROSS THIS AREA THIS MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH MODERATE RA WAS FALLING
AT RDM AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF OVER CENTRAL OREGON TODAY.
THE PCPN WAS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION THAT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS WHICH
MAY PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AND HAVE
INCREASED WINDS AS WELL AS AFTN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 400 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION THIS MORNING. AREA OF STEADY RAIN OVER NORTHEAST OREGON WILL
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE CASCADES. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SEEN ON SATELLITE
OFFSHORE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER TODAY AND EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY THE CASCADES AND BLUES. IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY TODAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL OVER
THE CASCADES AND BLUES. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WASHINGTON
CASCADES LOOK TO PICK UP THE MOST PRECIP WITH THIS ONE AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGHS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS MOSTLY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
94

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DIVERGE FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS BUT NOT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT KYKM
AND KPSC THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING
AS WINDS INCREASE. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING BUT PICK
UP AGAIN BY MIDDAY MAINLY ACROSS OREGON. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY VFR BUT COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR IN THE RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AT THE TAF SITES BUT WILL BE
STRONGEST AT KPDT...KALW...AND KPSC WITH SW-W WIND OF 15-30 KTS INTO
THIS EVENING 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  35  47  34 /  40  20  30  20
ALW  50  37  47  35 /  40  20  30  20
PSC  49  36  49  34 /  20  20  30  10
YKM  48  29  46  31 /  20  20  30  10
HRI  50  36  49  33 /  30  20  30  10
ELN  44  29  44  28 /  30  20  30  10
RDM  46  27  45  27 /  70  30  20  10
LGD  48  32  39  31 /  70  50  60  30
GCD  46  28  41  22 /  70  40  40  30
DLS  45  36  47  35 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/









000
FXUS65 KBOI 221630
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST THROUGH SW IDAHO AS OF 9
AM MST...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SE OREGON. SNOW LEVEL IS
AROUND 5000-6000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SW IDAHO...AND AS HIGH
AS 10000 FEET IN FAR SE OREGON. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PAST
TWIN FALLS AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON AT THIS TIME
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINTENSIFICATION OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MORE SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL BACK DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS LATE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND TODAY/S COLD FRONT AND IS REINFORCED BY THE PASSING SHORT
WAVE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SW
IDAHO WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM MST / 18Z / AND WILL NOT BE EXTENDED.
SO FAR AROUND 7 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN AT BRUNDAGE. WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF OVER 1 INCH OF RAINFALL AT LOWER ELEVATION
SITES WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST OF MOUNTAIN
HOME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WEST OF NAMPA AT 16Z AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI AROUND 17Z AND KTWF AROUND 21Z. SNOW
LEVELS 6K FT MSL NEAR KMYL AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING
TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD FRONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TONIGHT WILL BRING
MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEY AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY
50- 70KT DECREASING TO NW 30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF THEY DO...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 221630
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST THROUGH SW IDAHO AS OF 9
AM MST...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SE OREGON. SNOW LEVEL IS
AROUND 5000-6000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SW IDAHO...AND AS HIGH
AS 10000 FEET IN FAR SE OREGON. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PAST
TWIN FALLS AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON AT THIS TIME
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINTENSIFICATION OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MORE SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL BACK DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS LATE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND TODAY/S COLD FRONT AND IS REINFORCED BY THE PASSING SHORT
WAVE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SW
IDAHO WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM MST / 18Z / AND WILL NOT BE EXTENDED.
SO FAR AROUND 7 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN AT BRUNDAGE. WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF OVER 1 INCH OF RAINFALL AT LOWER ELEVATION
SITES WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST OF MOUNTAIN
HOME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WEST OF NAMPA AT 16Z AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI AROUND 17Z AND KTWF AROUND 21Z. SNOW
LEVELS 6K FT MSL NEAR KMYL AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING
TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD FRONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TONIGHT WILL BRING
MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEY AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY
50- 70KT DECREASING TO NW 30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF THEY DO...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS66 KMFR 221306
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
506 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A 150 KNOT JET STREAM IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT THE 300 MB LEVEL OVER THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER AREA.
WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND NOW OVER AND SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, WE`RE MOSTLY IN THE SHOWERY
PORTION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM. RADAR RETURNS AT ONE POINT
OVERNIGHT WERE MOVING EASTWARD A 72 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONE
HOUR RAIN RATES OF 0.25" TO 0.50" AN INCH. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND ARE ENHANCING AS THE ARE
FORCED UPWARD BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE LAST HOUR WEST OF CAPE BLANCO.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WERE IMPRESSIVE IN SOME
AREAS AND LESSER THAN EXPECTED IN OTHERS, WITH RED MOUND RECEIVING OVER
5 INCHES AND A CITIZEN`S WEATHER STATION IN THE BROOKINGS AREA
REPORTING NEARLY 6.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL. HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY
AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM AROUND 0.40" IN MEDFORD TO AROUND AN INCH
IN THE EAGLE POINT AND EVANS CREEK AREAS. WINDS WERE STRONG, AS
EXPECTED, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 75 MPH RANGE AT FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

TODAY WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND THE JET STREAM LINGERS, SLOWLY
DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. A WIND ADVISORY STILL REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SUMMER LAKE AREA AND HIGH TERRAIN OF THE EAST
SIDE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW LEVELS ARE A BIT
TRICKY RIGHT NOW, AS THEY HAVE HELD IN THE 6KFT TO 7KFT RANGE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE STORM IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA, BUT APPEAR TO
HAVE RISEN TO 7-8KFT ELSEWHERE. THERE`S CLEARLY COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING FROM THE NORTHWEST, MORE SO ALOFT THAN AT THE SURFACE.
SO, SUSPECT THE PICTURE WILL BE CLEARER AT SUNRISE, WHEN ROAD
CAMERAS WILL TELL US MORE. IT APPEARS WET SNOW IS LIKELY FALLING
IN THE DIAMOND LAKE AREA NOW. WE EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION SLOWLY DIMINISHES. MOST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT AND ABOVE 4KFT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHNACE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF, FOR THE MOST PART. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WE DO EXPECT SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT IT WILL BE LIGHT WHERE
IT DOES OCCUR. WARMING ALOFT IS LIKELY TO TRAP COOLER AIR IN THE
VALLEYS WITH TIME, BUT INCREASING WINDS ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHOULD PREVENT AIR STAGNATION FROM BEING A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THE PATTERN PROGRESSING BACK TO AN ACTIVE
ONE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/06Z TAF CYCLE...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG
THE COAST. WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALOFT, THERE CAN STILL BE
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE CAUSING SOME BUMPY RIDES INTO AND OUT
OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY BEHIND IT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT TERRAIN WILL REMAIN OBSCURED, ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST-FACING SLOPES WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO 4500-5500 FEET. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY, MAINLY
BEYOND 10 NM. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS
MORNING. WESTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-623-624.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
  FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BTL/CC/SPILDE




000
FXUS66 KMFR 221306
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
506 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A 150 KNOT JET STREAM IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT THE 300 MB LEVEL OVER THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER AREA.
WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND NOW OVER AND SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, WE`RE MOSTLY IN THE SHOWERY
PORTION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM. RADAR RETURNS AT ONE POINT
OVERNIGHT WERE MOVING EASTWARD A 72 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONE
HOUR RAIN RATES OF 0.25" TO 0.50" AN INCH. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND ARE ENHANCING AS THE ARE
FORCED UPWARD BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE LAST HOUR WEST OF CAPE BLANCO.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WERE IMPRESSIVE IN SOME
AREAS AND LESSER THAN EXPECTED IN OTHERS, WITH RED MOUND RECEIVING OVER
5 INCHES AND A CITIZEN`S WEATHER STATION IN THE BROOKINGS AREA
REPORTING NEARLY 6.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL. HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY
AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM AROUND 0.40" IN MEDFORD TO AROUND AN INCH
IN THE EAGLE POINT AND EVANS CREEK AREAS. WINDS WERE STRONG, AS
EXPECTED, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 75 MPH RANGE AT FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

TODAY WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND THE JET STREAM LINGERS, SLOWLY
DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. A WIND ADVISORY STILL REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SUMMER LAKE AREA AND HIGH TERRAIN OF THE EAST
SIDE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW LEVELS ARE A BIT
TRICKY RIGHT NOW, AS THEY HAVE HELD IN THE 6KFT TO 7KFT RANGE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE STORM IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA, BUT APPEAR TO
HAVE RISEN TO 7-8KFT ELSEWHERE. THERE`S CLEARLY COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING FROM THE NORTHWEST, MORE SO ALOFT THAN AT THE SURFACE.
SO, SUSPECT THE PICTURE WILL BE CLEARER AT SUNRISE, WHEN ROAD
CAMERAS WILL TELL US MORE. IT APPEARS WET SNOW IS LIKELY FALLING
IN THE DIAMOND LAKE AREA NOW. WE EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION SLOWLY DIMINISHES. MOST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT AND ABOVE 4KFT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHNACE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF, FOR THE MOST PART. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WE DO EXPECT SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT IT WILL BE LIGHT WHERE
IT DOES OCCUR. WARMING ALOFT IS LIKELY TO TRAP COOLER AIR IN THE
VALLEYS WITH TIME, BUT INCREASING WINDS ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHOULD PREVENT AIR STAGNATION FROM BEING A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THE PATTERN PROGRESSING BACK TO AN ACTIVE
ONE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/06Z TAF CYCLE...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG
THE COAST. WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALOFT, THERE CAN STILL BE
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE CAUSING SOME BUMPY RIDES INTO AND OUT
OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY BEHIND IT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT TERRAIN WILL REMAIN OBSCURED, ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST-FACING SLOPES WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO 4500-5500 FEET. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY, MAINLY
BEYOND 10 NM. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS
MORNING. WESTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-623-624.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
  FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BTL/CC/SPILDE



000
FXUS66 KPDT 221209
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
400 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION THIS MORNING. AREA OF STEADY RAIN OVER NORTHEAST OREGON WILL
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE CASCADES. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SEEN ON SATELLITE
OFFSHORE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER TODAY AND EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY THE CASCADES AND BLUES. IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY TODAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL OVER
THE CASCADES AND BLUES. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WASHINGTON
CASCADES LOOK TO PICK UP THE MOST PRECIP WITH THIS ONE AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGHS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS MOSTLY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
94

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DIVERGE FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS BUT NOT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT KYKM
AND KPSC THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING
AS WINDS INCREASE. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING BUT PICK
UP AGAIN BY MIDDAY MAINLY ACROSS OREGON. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY VFR BUT COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR IN THE RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AT THE TAF SITES BUT WILL BE
STRONGEST AT KPDT...KALW...AND KPSC WITH SW-W WIND OF 15-30 KTS INTO
THIS EVENING 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  35  47  34 /  40  20  30  20
ALW  48  37  47  35 /  40  20  30  20
PSC  46  36  49  34 /  20  20  30  10
YKM  46  29  46  31 /  20  20  30  10
HRI  46  36  49  33 /  30  20  30  10
ELN  42  29  44  28 /  30  20  30  10
RDM  46  27  45  27 /  60  30  20  10
LGD  44  32  39  31 /  70  50  60  30
GCD  46  28  41  22 /  70  40  40  30
DLS  44  36  47  35 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/78







000
FXUS66 KPDT 221209
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
400 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION THIS MORNING. AREA OF STEADY RAIN OVER NORTHEAST OREGON WILL
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE CASCADES. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SEEN ON SATELLITE
OFFSHORE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER TODAY AND EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY THE CASCADES AND BLUES. IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY TODAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL OVER
THE CASCADES AND BLUES. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WASHINGTON
CASCADES LOOK TO PICK UP THE MOST PRECIP WITH THIS ONE AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGHS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS MOSTLY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
94

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DIVERGE FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS BUT NOT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT KYKM
AND KPSC THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING
AS WINDS INCREASE. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING BUT PICK
UP AGAIN BY MIDDAY MAINLY ACROSS OREGON. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY VFR BUT COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR IN THE RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AT THE TAF SITES BUT WILL BE
STRONGEST AT KPDT...KALW...AND KPSC WITH SW-W WIND OF 15-30 KTS INTO
THIS EVENING 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  35  47  34 /  40  20  30  20
ALW  48  37  47  35 /  40  20  30  20
PSC  46  36  49  34 /  20  20  30  10
YKM  46  29  46  31 /  20  20  30  10
HRI  46  36  49  33 /  30  20  30  10
ELN  42  29  44  28 /  30  20  30  10
RDM  46  27  45  27 /  60  30  20  10
LGD  44  32  39  31 /  70  50  60  30
GCD  46  28  41  22 /  70  40  40  30
DLS  44  36  47  35 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/78






000
FXUS66 KPDT 221129
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
329 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION THIS MORNING. AREA OF STEADY RAIN OVER NORTHEAST OREGON WILL
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE CASCADES. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SEEN ON SATELLITE
OFFSHORE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER TODAY AND EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY THE CASCADES AND BLUES. IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY TODAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL OVER
THE CASCADES AND BLUES. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WASHINGTON
CASCADES LOOK TO PICK UP THE MOST PRECIP WITH THIS ONE AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGHS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS MOSTLY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
94

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DIVERGE FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS BUT NOT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT KYKM
AND KPSC THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING
AS WINDS INCREASE. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING BUT PICK
UP AGAIN BY MIDDAY MAINLY ACROSS OREGON. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY VFR BUT COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR IN THE RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AT THE TAF SITES BUT WILL BE
STRONGEST AT KPDT...KALW...AND KPSC WITH SW-W WIND OF 15-30 KTS INTO
THIS EVENING 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  35  47  34 /  40  20  30  20
ALW  48  37  47  35 /  40  20  30  20
PSC  46  36  49  34 /  20  20  30  10
YKM  46  29  46  31 /  20  20  30  10
HRI  46  36  49  33 /  30  20  30  10
ELN  42  29  44  28 /  30  20  30  10
RDM  46  27  45  27 /  60  30  20  10
LGD  44  32  39  31 /  70  50  60  30
GCD  46  28  41  22 /  70  40  40  30
DLS  44  36  47  35 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING ORZ050.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING ORZ049.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING
WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/78







000
FXUS66 KPDT 221129
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
329 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION THIS MORNING. AREA OF STEADY RAIN OVER NORTHEAST OREGON WILL
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE CASCADES. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SEEN ON SATELLITE
OFFSHORE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER TODAY AND EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY THE CASCADES AND BLUES. IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY TODAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL OVER
THE CASCADES AND BLUES. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WASHINGTON
CASCADES LOOK TO PICK UP THE MOST PRECIP WITH THIS ONE AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGHS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS MOSTLY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
94

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DIVERGE FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS BUT NOT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT KYKM
AND KPSC THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING
AS WINDS INCREASE. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING BUT PICK
UP AGAIN BY MIDDAY MAINLY ACROSS OREGON. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY VFR BUT COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR IN THE RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AT THE TAF SITES BUT WILL BE
STRONGEST AT KPDT...KALW...AND KPSC WITH SW-W WIND OF 15-30 KTS INTO
THIS EVENING 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  35  47  34 /  40  20  30  20
ALW  48  37  47  35 /  40  20  30  20
PSC  46  36  49  34 /  20  20  30  10
YKM  46  29  46  31 /  20  20  30  10
HRI  46  36  49  33 /  30  20  30  10
ELN  42  29  44  28 /  30  20  30  10
RDM  46  27  45  27 /  60  30  20  10
LGD  44  32  39  31 /  70  50  60  30
GCD  46  28  41  22 /  70  40  40  30
DLS  44  36  47  35 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING ORZ050.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING ORZ049.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING
WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/78







000
FXUS66 KPDT 221129
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
329 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION THIS MORNING. AREA OF STEADY RAIN OVER NORTHEAST OREGON WILL
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE CASCADES. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SEEN ON SATELLITE
OFFSHORE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER TODAY AND EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY THE CASCADES AND BLUES. IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY TODAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL OVER
THE CASCADES AND BLUES. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WASHINGTON
CASCADES LOOK TO PICK UP THE MOST PRECIP WITH THIS ONE AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGHS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS MOSTLY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
94

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DIVERGE FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS BUT NOT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT KYKM
AND KPSC THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING
AS WINDS INCREASE. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING BUT PICK
UP AGAIN BY MIDDAY MAINLY ACROSS OREGON. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY VFR BUT COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR IN THE RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AT THE TAF SITES BUT WILL BE
STRONGEST AT KPDT...KALW...AND KPSC WITH SW-W WIND OF 15-30 KTS INTO
THIS EVENING 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  35  47  34 /  40  20  30  20
ALW  48  37  47  35 /  40  20  30  20
PSC  46  36  49  34 /  20  20  30  10
YKM  46  29  46  31 /  20  20  30  10
HRI  46  36  49  33 /  30  20  30  10
ELN  42  29  44  28 /  30  20  30  10
RDM  46  27  45  27 /  60  30  20  10
LGD  44  32  39  31 /  70  50  60  30
GCD  46  28  41  22 /  70  40  40  30
DLS  44  36  47  35 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING ORZ050.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING ORZ049.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING
WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/78







000
FXUS66 KPDT 221129
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
329 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION THIS MORNING. AREA OF STEADY RAIN OVER NORTHEAST OREGON WILL
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE CASCADES. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SEEN ON SATELLITE
OFFSHORE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER TODAY AND EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY THE CASCADES AND BLUES. IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY TODAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL OVER
THE CASCADES AND BLUES. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WASHINGTON
CASCADES LOOK TO PICK UP THE MOST PRECIP WITH THIS ONE AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGHS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS MOSTLY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
94

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DIVERGE FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE REGION UNDER WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS BUT NOT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT KYKM
AND KPSC THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING
AS WINDS INCREASE. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING BUT PICK
UP AGAIN BY MIDDAY MAINLY ACROSS OREGON. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY VFR BUT COULD BRIEFLY BE MVFR IN THE RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AT THE TAF SITES BUT WILL BE
STRONGEST AT KPDT...KALW...AND KPSC WITH SW-W WIND OF 15-30 KTS INTO
THIS EVENING 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  35  47  34 /  40  20  30  20
ALW  48  37  47  35 /  40  20  30  20
PSC  46  36  49  34 /  20  20  30  10
YKM  46  29  46  31 /  20  20  30  10
HRI  46  36  49  33 /  30  20  30  10
ELN  42  29  44  28 /  30  20  30  10
RDM  46  27  45  27 /  60  30  20  10
LGD  44  32  39  31 /  70  50  60  30
GCD  46  28  41  22 /  70  40  40  30
DLS  44  36  47  35 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING ORZ050.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING ORZ049.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING
WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/78







000
FXUS66 KPDT 221053
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION THIS MORNING. AREA OF STEADY RAIN OVER NORTHEAST OREGON WILL
MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE CASCADES. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SEEN ON SATELLITE
OFFSHORE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER TODAY AND EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY THE CASCADES AND BLUES. IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY TODAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL OVER
THE CASCADES AND BLUES. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WASHINGTON
CASCADES LOOK TO PICK UP THE MOST PRECIP WITH THIS ONE AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGHS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS MOSTLY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
94

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DIVERGE FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW TO TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. FOR TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN AN UNSEASONABLY
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A
FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE
REGION UNDER WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. FOR THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS ON
TEMPERATURES AND POPS BUT NOT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES. 78

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
INTERMITTENT LIFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KPSC...KDLS...KALW AND KYKM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND REMNANT FOG...EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 22/12Z AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER 22/18Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND MIXES UP
THE ATMOSPHERE. A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH 22/12-15Z BEFORE MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA.THEN YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS/LOWER CIGS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TAF SITES FROM
22/21Z TO ABOUT 23/02Z. WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING FOR MOST TAF SITES AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH PERIOD...SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND AT KPDT
AND KALW WHERE GUSTS MAY SURPASS 25-30KTS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  35  47  34 /  40  20  30  20
ALW  48  37  47  35 /  40  20  30  20
PSC  46  36  49  34 /  20  20  30  10
YKM  46  29  46  31 /  20  20  30  10
HRI  46  36  49  33 /  30  20  30  10
ELN  42  29  44  28 /  30  20  30  10
RDM  46  27  45  27 /  60  30  20  10
LGD  44  32  39  31 /  70  50  60  30
GCD  46  28  41  22 /  70  40  40  30
DLS  44  36  47  35 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING ORZ050.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING ORZ049.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/78








000
FXUS65 KBOI 221032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF THEY DO...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR KONO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT MSL NEAR KMYL
AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z SAT...KTWF BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE/BAKER VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 50-70KT LOWERING TO NW
30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 221032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF THEY DO...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR KONO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT MSL NEAR KMYL
AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z SAT...KTWF BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE/BAKER VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 50-70KT LOWERING TO NW
30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF THEY DO...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR KONO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT MSL NEAR KMYL
AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z SAT...KTWF BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE/BAKER VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 50-70KT LOWERING TO NW
30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF THEY DO...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR KONO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT MSL NEAR KMYL
AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z SAT...KTWF BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE/BAKER VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 50-70KT LOWERING TO NW
30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF THEY DO...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR KONO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT MSL NEAR KMYL
AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z SAT...KTWF BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE/BAKER VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 50-70KT LOWERING TO NW
30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF THEY DO...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR KONO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT MSL NEAR KMYL
AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z SAT...KTWF BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE/BAKER VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 50-70KT LOWERING TO NW
30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221030
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF IT DOES...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR KONO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT MSL NEAR KMYL
AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z SAT...KTWF BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE/BAKER VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 50-70KT LOWERING TO NW
30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 221030
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF IT DOES...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR KONO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT MSL NEAR KMYL
AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z SAT...KTWF BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE/BAKER VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 50-70KT LOWERING TO NW
30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 221030
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF IT DOES...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR KONO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT MSL NEAR KMYL
AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z SAT...KTWF BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE/BAKER VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 50-70KT LOWERING TO NW
30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 221030
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF IT DOES...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR KONO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT MSL NEAR KMYL
AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z SAT...KTWF BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE/BAKER VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 50-70KT LOWERING TO NW
30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 221030
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF IT DOES...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR KONO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT MSL NEAR KMYL
AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z SAT...KTWF BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE/BAKER VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 50-70KT LOWERING TO NW
30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KPQR 221026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER
SOUTHEAST EARLY TODAY...WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER A COOLER AIR
MASS PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES THIS MORNING...ALLOWING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR
THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE
PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT
TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DROPPED ANYWHERE
FROM 0.02-0.10 INCHES ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND NEARLY 0.50
INCHES OVER THE CASCADES EARLY TODAY. THE COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS ALREADY NUDGING IN OVER THE REGION...WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES POPPING
UP ON THE KLGX RADAR OVER THE FAR OUTER COASTAL WATERS. TIME ARRIVAL
OF THESE SHOWERS WITH THE EMBEDDED LIGHTNING REACHING THE COAST IS
LOOKING AROUND 6-7AM PST IF THEY STAY ON THE SAME TRACK. SMALL HAIL
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY UNDER THIS UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
BELOW CASCADE PASSES LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAINING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CASCADES TODAY...WITH 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500-4000 FT
ELEVATION DUE TO STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. 06Z GFS AND NAM SHOW
SHOWERS DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE PASSES. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...EXTENDING IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHOWERS LINGER.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS AS A DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DROPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ZONES. /27

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS HOLD
ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...YET THE
GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD
REMAIN UNDER DAMP AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE AND BREAK IT DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SEASONAL WEATHER AROUND FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD AS NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PYLE/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
THESE SHOULD GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED. KONP...KSLE...AND KHIO WILL
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A
THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT A TAF SITE SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE IS LOW. WITH THAT SAID A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS INSIDE 130W
CONTINUE TO PUT DOWN LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY CONTINUE ON THEIR PATH
TOWARDS THE NORTH OREGON COAST. ASSUMING THEY HOLD TOGETHER AND
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE LINEARLY...BOTH PRETTY BIG ASSUMPTIONS...THEY
SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY OF KAST AROUND 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AN OCCASIONAL BRIEF
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN 30 KT
TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT IN GENERAL WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DECREASE. IN CONTRAST...SEAS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TODAY...BEFORE
DROPPING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL SKIRT THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BRING WIND
GUSTS BACK UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON WATERS ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. REGARDLESS...
SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND RISE BACK INTO THE MID TEENS ON
SUNDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK...FINALLY DROPPING
BELOW 10 FT LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE
FURTHER. A SLOWER MOVING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
    CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
   60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
    PST SUNDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 221026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER
SOUTHEAST EARLY TODAY...WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER A COOLER AIR
MASS PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES THIS MORNING...ALLOWING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR
THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE
PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT
TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DROPPED ANYWHERE
FROM 0.02-0.10 INCHES ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND NEARLY 0.50
INCHES OVER THE CASCADES EARLY TODAY. THE COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS ALREADY NUDGING IN OVER THE REGION...WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES POPPING
UP ON THE KLGX RADAR OVER THE FAR OUTER COASTAL WATERS. TIME ARRIVAL
OF THESE SHOWERS WITH THE EMBEDDED LIGHTNING REACHING THE COAST IS
LOOKING AROUND 6-7AM PST IF THEY STAY ON THE SAME TRACK. SMALL HAIL
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY UNDER THIS UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
BELOW CASCADE PASSES LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAINING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CASCADES TODAY...WITH 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500-4000 FT
ELEVATION DUE TO STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. 06Z GFS AND NAM SHOW
SHOWERS DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE PASSES. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...EXTENDING IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHOWERS LINGER.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS AS A DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DROPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ZONES. /27

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS HOLD
ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...YET THE
GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD
REMAIN UNDER DAMP AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE AND BREAK IT DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SEASONAL WEATHER AROUND FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD AS NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PYLE/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
THESE SHOULD GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED. KONP...KSLE...AND KHIO WILL
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A
THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT A TAF SITE SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE IS LOW. WITH THAT SAID A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS INSIDE 130W
CONTINUE TO PUT DOWN LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY CONTINUE ON THEIR PATH
TOWARDS THE NORTH OREGON COAST. ASSUMING THEY HOLD TOGETHER AND
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE LINEARLY...BOTH PRETTY BIG ASSUMPTIONS...THEY
SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY OF KAST AROUND 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AN OCCASIONAL BRIEF
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN 30 KT
TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT IN GENERAL WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DECREASE. IN CONTRAST...SEAS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TODAY...BEFORE
DROPPING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL SKIRT THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BRING WIND
GUSTS BACK UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON WATERS ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. REGARDLESS...
SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND RISE BACK INTO THE MID TEENS ON
SUNDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK...FINALLY DROPPING
BELOW 10 FT LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE
FURTHER. A SLOWER MOVING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
    CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
   60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
    PST SUNDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 221026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER
SOUTHEAST EARLY TODAY...WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER A COOLER AIR
MASS PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES THIS MORNING...ALLOWING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR
THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE
PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT
TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DROPPED ANYWHERE
FROM 0.02-0.10 INCHES ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND NEARLY 0.50
INCHES OVER THE CASCADES EARLY TODAY. THE COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS ALREADY NUDGING IN OVER THE REGION...WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES POPPING
UP ON THE KLGX RADAR OVER THE FAR OUTER COASTAL WATERS. TIME ARRIVAL
OF THESE SHOWERS WITH THE EMBEDDED LIGHTNING REACHING THE COAST IS
LOOKING AROUND 6-7AM PST IF THEY STAY ON THE SAME TRACK. SMALL HAIL
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY UNDER THIS UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
BELOW CASCADE PASSES LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAINING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CASCADES TODAY...WITH 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500-4000 FT
ELEVATION DUE TO STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. 06Z GFS AND NAM SHOW
SHOWERS DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE PASSES. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...EXTENDING IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHOWERS LINGER.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS AS A DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DROPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ZONES. /27

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS HOLD
ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...YET THE
GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD
REMAIN UNDER DAMP AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE AND BREAK IT DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SEASONAL WEATHER AROUND FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD AS NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PYLE/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
THESE SHOULD GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED. KONP...KSLE...AND KHIO WILL
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A
THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT A TAF SITE SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE IS LOW. WITH THAT SAID A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS INSIDE 130W
CONTINUE TO PUT DOWN LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY CONTINUE ON THEIR PATH
TOWARDS THE NORTH OREGON COAST. ASSUMING THEY HOLD TOGETHER AND
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE LINEARLY...BOTH PRETTY BIG ASSUMPTIONS...THEY
SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY OF KAST AROUND 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AN OCCASIONAL BRIEF
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN 30 KT
TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT IN GENERAL WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DECREASE. IN CONTRAST...SEAS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TODAY...BEFORE
DROPPING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL SKIRT THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BRING WIND
GUSTS BACK UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON WATERS ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. REGARDLESS...
SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND RISE BACK INTO THE MID TEENS ON
SUNDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK...FINALLY DROPPING
BELOW 10 FT LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE
FURTHER. A SLOWER MOVING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
    CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
   60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
    PST SUNDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 221026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER
SOUTHEAST EARLY TODAY...WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER A COOLER AIR
MASS PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES THIS MORNING...ALLOWING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR
THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE
PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT
TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DROPPED ANYWHERE
FROM 0.02-0.10 INCHES ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND NEARLY 0.50
INCHES OVER THE CASCADES EARLY TODAY. THE COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS ALREADY NUDGING IN OVER THE REGION...WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES POPPING
UP ON THE KLGX RADAR OVER THE FAR OUTER COASTAL WATERS. TIME ARRIVAL
OF THESE SHOWERS WITH THE EMBEDDED LIGHTNING REACHING THE COAST IS
LOOKING AROUND 6-7AM PST IF THEY STAY ON THE SAME TRACK. SMALL HAIL
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY UNDER THIS UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
BELOW CASCADE PASSES LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAINING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CASCADES TODAY...WITH 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500-4000 FT
ELEVATION DUE TO STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. 06Z GFS AND NAM SHOW
SHOWERS DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE PASSES. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...EXTENDING IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHOWERS LINGER.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS AS A DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DROPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ZONES. /27

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS HOLD
ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...YET THE
GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD
REMAIN UNDER DAMP AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE AND BREAK IT DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SEASONAL WEATHER AROUND FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD AS NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PYLE/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
THESE SHOULD GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED. KONP...KSLE...AND KHIO WILL
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A
THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT A TAF SITE SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE IS LOW. WITH THAT SAID A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS INSIDE 130W
CONTINUE TO PUT DOWN LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY CONTINUE ON THEIR PATH
TOWARDS THE NORTH OREGON COAST. ASSUMING THEY HOLD TOGETHER AND
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE LINEARLY...BOTH PRETTY BIG ASSUMPTIONS...THEY
SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY OF KAST AROUND 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AN OCCASIONAL BRIEF
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN 30 KT
TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT IN GENERAL WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DECREASE. IN CONTRAST...SEAS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TODAY...BEFORE
DROPPING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL SKIRT THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BRING WIND
GUSTS BACK UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON WATERS ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. REGARDLESS...
SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND RISE BACK INTO THE MID TEENS ON
SUNDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK...FINALLY DROPPING
BELOW 10 FT LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE
FURTHER. A SLOWER MOVING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
    CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
   60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
    PST SUNDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 221026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER
SOUTHEAST EARLY TODAY...WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER A COOLER AIR
MASS PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES THIS MORNING...ALLOWING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR
THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE
PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT
TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DROPPED ANYWHERE
FROM 0.02-0.10 INCHES ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND NEARLY 0.50
INCHES OVER THE CASCADES EARLY TODAY. THE COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS ALREADY NUDGING IN OVER THE REGION...WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES POPPING
UP ON THE KLGX RADAR OVER THE FAR OUTER COASTAL WATERS. TIME ARRIVAL
OF THESE SHOWERS WITH THE EMBEDDED LIGHTNING REACHING THE COAST IS
LOOKING AROUND 6-7AM PST IF THEY STAY ON THE SAME TRACK. SMALL HAIL
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY UNDER THIS UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
BELOW CASCADE PASSES LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAINING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CASCADES TODAY...WITH 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500-4000 FT
ELEVATION DUE TO STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. 06Z GFS AND NAM SHOW
SHOWERS DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE PASSES. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...EXTENDING IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHOWERS LINGER.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS AS A DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DROPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ZONES. /27

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS HOLD
ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...YET THE
GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD
REMAIN UNDER DAMP AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE AND BREAK IT DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SEASONAL WEATHER AROUND FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD AS NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PYLE/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
THESE SHOULD GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED. KONP...KSLE...AND KHIO WILL
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A
THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT A TAF SITE SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE IS LOW. WITH THAT SAID A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS INSIDE 130W
CONTINUE TO PUT DOWN LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY CONTINUE ON THEIR PATH
TOWARDS THE NORTH OREGON COAST. ASSUMING THEY HOLD TOGETHER AND
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE LINEARLY...BOTH PRETTY BIG ASSUMPTIONS...THEY
SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY OF KAST AROUND 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AN OCCASIONAL BRIEF
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN 30 KT
TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT IN GENERAL WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DECREASE. IN CONTRAST...SEAS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TODAY...BEFORE
DROPPING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL SKIRT THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BRING WIND
GUSTS BACK UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON WATERS ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. REGARDLESS...
SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND RISE BACK INTO THE MID TEENS ON
SUNDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK...FINALLY DROPPING
BELOW 10 FT LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE
FURTHER. A SLOWER MOVING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
    CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
   60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
    PST SUNDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 221026
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER
SOUTHEAST EARLY TODAY...WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS UNDER A COOLER AIR
MASS PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES THIS MORNING...ALLOWING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR
THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE
PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT
TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT DIGGING FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE CASCADES EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DROPPED ANYWHERE
FROM 0.02-0.10 INCHES ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND NEARLY 0.50
INCHES OVER THE CASCADES EARLY TODAY. THE COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS ALREADY NUDGING IN OVER THE REGION...WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES POPPING
UP ON THE KLGX RADAR OVER THE FAR OUTER COASTAL WATERS. TIME ARRIVAL
OF THESE SHOWERS WITH THE EMBEDDED LIGHTNING REACHING THE COAST IS
LOOKING AROUND 6-7AM PST IF THEY STAY ON THE SAME TRACK. SMALL HAIL
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY UNDER THIS UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST INTO THE
INLAND VALLEYS.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
BELOW CASCADE PASSES LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAINING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CASCADES TODAY...WITH 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500-4000 FT
ELEVATION DUE TO STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. 06Z GFS AND NAM SHOW
SHOWERS DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE PASSES. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...EXTENDING IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHOWERS LINGER.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS AS A DIRTY RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DROPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ZONES. /27

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED MODELS HOLD
ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...YET THE
GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD
REMAIN UNDER DAMP AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE AND BREAK IT DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WOULD
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SEASONAL WEATHER AROUND FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD AS NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PYLE/27

&&

.AVIATION...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
THESE SHOULD GENERALLY BE SHORT LIVED. KONP...KSLE...AND KHIO WILL
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A
THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT A TAF SITE SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE IS LOW. WITH THAT SAID A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS INSIDE 130W
CONTINUE TO PUT DOWN LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY CONTINUE ON THEIR PATH
TOWARDS THE NORTH OREGON COAST. ASSUMING THEY HOLD TOGETHER AND
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE LINEARLY...BOTH PRETTY BIG ASSUMPTIONS...THEY
SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY OF KAST AROUND 16Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A POST FRONTAL SHOWERY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AN OCCASIONAL BRIEF
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT...POSSIBLY EVEN 30 KT
TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT IN GENERAL WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE
DECREASE. IN CONTRAST...SEAS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TODAY...BEFORE
DROPPING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL SKIRT THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND BRING WIND
GUSTS BACK UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
LOW END GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON WATERS ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. REGARDLESS...
SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND RISE BACK INTO THE MID TEENS ON
SUNDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK...FINALLY DROPPING
BELOW 10 FT LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW SEAS AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE
FURTHER. A SLOWER MOVING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEK. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
    CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
    FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
   60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
    60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
    PST SUNDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 220608
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1008 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...THE LATEST PACIFIC SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS
NEARING THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM PST. TEMPS IN THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND
THE WASHINGTON LOWER BASIN BELOW 700 FT MSL REMAIN AROUND 32
DEGREES, BUT EXPECT PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE MINIMAL THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THUS HAVE ALLOWED EARLIER ISSUED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. PRECIP TRENDS MAY ALSO ALLOW AN
EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE WINTER HIGHLIGHT IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE FREEZING PRECIP HAS BEEN VERY SPOTTY, LIMITED TO THE LOWER
BASIN IN OREGON. WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND
WASHINGTON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. AS SUCH HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THESE ZONES. WINDS HAVE FINALLY KICKED IN SOUTHERN
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY IN THIS
AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WINDS WALLOWA COUNTY FOR POTENTIAL
ADVISORY. UPDATES THIS EVENING BESIDES THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGHLIGHT ADDITIONS FOCUSED ON ADJUSTING SNOW LEVELS, SNOW AMOUNTS
AND PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT AN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THROUGH ON SUNDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OF RAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL
THEN BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND CONSEQUENT
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND BRINGS MORE
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. INTERMITTENT LIFR/IFR
CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSC...KDLS...KALW AND KYKM
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN LOW CLOUDS AND REMNANT FOG...EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 22/12Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 22/18Z AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND MIXES UP THE ATMOSPHERE. A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES
THROUGH 22/12-15Z BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.THEN YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/LOWER CIGS TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL TAF SITES FROM 22/21Z TO ABOUT 23/02Z. WINDS ARE
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING FOR MOST TAF SITES AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH PERIOD...SOME OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND AT KPDT AND KALW WHERE GUSTS MAY
SURPASS 25-30KTS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  45  35  45 /  90  60  30  40
ALW  40  46  38  45 /  90  60  40  50
PSC  32  48  37  49 /  90  20  10  30
YKM  30  44  31  46 /  90  20  10  20
HRI  33  46  36  48 /  90  30  20  30
ELN  29  43  31  44 /  90  30  10  30
RDM  37  46  25  41 /  90  50  40  10
LGD  38  41  32  38 /  90  70  50  60
GCD  38  42  30  38 /  90  70  40  40
DLS  34  45  37  46 / 100  40  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ050.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/77






000
FXUS66 KPDT 220608
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1008 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...THE LATEST PACIFIC SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS
NEARING THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM PST. TEMPS IN THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND
THE WASHINGTON LOWER BASIN BELOW 700 FT MSL REMAIN AROUND 32
DEGREES, BUT EXPECT PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE MINIMAL THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THUS HAVE ALLOWED EARLIER ISSUED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. PRECIP TRENDS MAY ALSO ALLOW AN
EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE WINTER HIGHLIGHT IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE FREEZING PRECIP HAS BEEN VERY SPOTTY, LIMITED TO THE LOWER
BASIN IN OREGON. WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND
WASHINGTON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. AS SUCH HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THESE ZONES. WINDS HAVE FINALLY KICKED IN SOUTHERN
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY IN THIS
AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WINDS WALLOWA COUNTY FOR POTENTIAL
ADVISORY. UPDATES THIS EVENING BESIDES THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGHLIGHT ADDITIONS FOCUSED ON ADJUSTING SNOW LEVELS, SNOW AMOUNTS
AND PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT AN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THROUGH ON SUNDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OF RAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL
THEN BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND CONSEQUENT
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND BRINGS MORE
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. INTERMITTENT LIFR/IFR
CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSC...KDLS...KALW AND KYKM
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN LOW CLOUDS AND REMNANT FOG...EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 22/12Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 22/18Z AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND MIXES UP THE ATMOSPHERE. A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES
THROUGH 22/12-15Z BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.THEN YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/LOWER CIGS TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL TAF SITES FROM 22/21Z TO ABOUT 23/02Z. WINDS ARE
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING FOR MOST TAF SITES AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH PERIOD...SOME OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND AT KPDT AND KALW WHERE GUSTS MAY
SURPASS 25-30KTS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  45  35  45 /  90  60  30  40
ALW  40  46  38  45 /  90  60  40  50
PSC  32  48  37  49 /  90  20  10  30
YKM  30  44  31  46 /  90  20  10  20
HRI  33  46  36  48 /  90  30  20  30
ELN  29  43  31  44 /  90  30  10  30
RDM  37  46  25  41 /  90  50  40  10
LGD  38  41  32  38 /  90  70  50  60
GCD  38  42  30  38 /  90  70  40  40
DLS  34  45  37  46 / 100  40  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ050.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/77






000
FXUS66 KPDT 220608
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1008 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...THE LATEST PACIFIC SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS
NEARING THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM PST. TEMPS IN THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND
THE WASHINGTON LOWER BASIN BELOW 700 FT MSL REMAIN AROUND 32
DEGREES, BUT EXPECT PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE MINIMAL THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THUS HAVE ALLOWED EARLIER ISSUED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. PRECIP TRENDS MAY ALSO ALLOW AN
EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE WINTER HIGHLIGHT IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE FREEZING PRECIP HAS BEEN VERY SPOTTY, LIMITED TO THE LOWER
BASIN IN OREGON. WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND
WASHINGTON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. AS SUCH HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THESE ZONES. WINDS HAVE FINALLY KICKED IN SOUTHERN
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY IN THIS
AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WINDS WALLOWA COUNTY FOR POTENTIAL
ADVISORY. UPDATES THIS EVENING BESIDES THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGHLIGHT ADDITIONS FOCUSED ON ADJUSTING SNOW LEVELS, SNOW AMOUNTS
AND PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT AN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THROUGH ON SUNDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OF RAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL
THEN BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND CONSEQUENT
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND BRINGS MORE
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. INTERMITTENT LIFR/IFR
CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSC...KDLS...KALW AND KYKM
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN LOW CLOUDS AND REMNANT FOG...EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 22/12Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 22/18Z AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND MIXES UP THE ATMOSPHERE. A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES
THROUGH 22/12-15Z BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.THEN YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/LOWER CIGS TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL TAF SITES FROM 22/21Z TO ABOUT 23/02Z. WINDS ARE
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING FOR MOST TAF SITES AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH PERIOD...SOME OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND AT KPDT AND KALW WHERE GUSTS MAY
SURPASS 25-30KTS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  45  35  45 /  90  60  30  40
ALW  40  46  38  45 /  90  60  40  50
PSC  32  48  37  49 /  90  20  10  30
YKM  30  44  31  46 /  90  20  10  20
HRI  33  46  36  48 /  90  30  20  30
ELN  29  43  31  44 /  90  30  10  30
RDM  37  46  25  41 /  90  50  40  10
LGD  38  41  32  38 /  90  70  50  60
GCD  38  42  30  38 /  90  70  40  40
DLS  34  45  37  46 / 100  40  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ050.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/77






000
FXUS66 KPDT 220608
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1008 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...THE LATEST PACIFIC SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS
NEARING THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM PST. TEMPS IN THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND
THE WASHINGTON LOWER BASIN BELOW 700 FT MSL REMAIN AROUND 32
DEGREES, BUT EXPECT PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE MINIMAL THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THUS HAVE ALLOWED EARLIER ISSUED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. PRECIP TRENDS MAY ALSO ALLOW AN
EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE WINTER HIGHLIGHT IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE FREEZING PRECIP HAS BEEN VERY SPOTTY, LIMITED TO THE LOWER
BASIN IN OREGON. WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND
WASHINGTON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. AS SUCH HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THESE ZONES. WINDS HAVE FINALLY KICKED IN SOUTHERN
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY IN THIS
AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WINDS WALLOWA COUNTY FOR POTENTIAL
ADVISORY. UPDATES THIS EVENING BESIDES THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGHLIGHT ADDITIONS FOCUSED ON ADJUSTING SNOW LEVELS, SNOW AMOUNTS
AND PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT AN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THROUGH ON SUNDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OF RAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL
THEN BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND CONSEQUENT
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND BRINGS MORE
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. INTERMITTENT LIFR/IFR
CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSC...KDLS...KALW AND KYKM
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN LOW CLOUDS AND REMNANT FOG...EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 22/12Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 22/18Z AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND MIXES UP THE ATMOSPHERE. A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES
THROUGH 22/12-15Z BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.THEN YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/LOWER CIGS TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL TAF SITES FROM 22/21Z TO ABOUT 23/02Z. WINDS ARE
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING FOR MOST TAF SITES AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH PERIOD...SOME OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND AT KPDT AND KALW WHERE GUSTS MAY
SURPASS 25-30KTS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  45  35  45 /  90  60  30  40
ALW  40  46  38  45 /  90  60  40  50
PSC  32  48  37  49 /  90  20  10  30
YKM  30  44  31  46 /  90  20  10  20
HRI  33  46  36  48 /  90  30  20  30
ELN  29  43  31  44 /  90  30  10  30
RDM  37  46  25  41 /  90  50  40  10
LGD  38  41  32  38 /  90  70  50  60
GCD  38  42  30  38 /  90  70  40  40
DLS  34  45  37  46 / 100  40  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ049.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ050.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/77






000
FXUS66 KPDT 220547
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
946 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...THE LATEST PACIFIC SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS
NEARING THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM PST. TEMPS IN THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND
THE WASHINGTON LOWER BASIN BELOW 700 FT MSL REMAIN AROUND 32
DEGREES, BUT EXPECT PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE MINIMAL THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THUS HAVE ALLOWED EARLIER ISSUED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. PRECIP TRENDS MAY ALSO ALLOW AN
EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE WINTER HIGHLIGHT IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE FREEZING PRECIP HAS BEEN VERY SPOTTY, LIMITED TO THE LOWER
BASIN IN OREGON. WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND
WASHINGTON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. AS SUCH HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THESE ZONES. WINDS HAVE FINALLY KICKED IN SOUTHERN
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY IN THIS
AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WINDS WALLOWA COUNTY FOR POTENTIAL
ADVISORY. UPDATES THIS EVENING BESIDES THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGHLIGHT ADDITIONS FOCUSED ON ADJUSTING SNOW LEVELS, SNOW AMOUNTS
AND PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT AN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THROUGH ON SUNDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OF RAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL
THEN BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND CONSEQUENT
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND BRINGS MORE
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MVFR OR WORSE AT KDLS...KPDT...KYKM...KALW AND KPSC IN RAIN AND/OR
FOG THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED
AT KPSC AND KYKM...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT FREEZING
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. CEILINGS ARE ALSO STARTING TO DROP AT
KBDN AS THE RAIN MOVES IN. KRDM COULD REMAIN VFR...BUT CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY DROP THERE AS WELL. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  45  35  45 /  90  60  30  40
ALW  40  46  38  45 /  90  60  40  50
PSC  32  48  37  49 /  90  20  10  30
YKM  30  44  31  46 /  90  20  10  20
HRI  33  46  36  48 /  90  30  20  30
ELN  29  43  31  44 /  90  30  10  30
RDM  37  46  25  41 /  90  50  40  10
LGD  38  41  32  38 /  90  70  50  60
GCD  38  42  30  38 /  90  70  40  40
DLS  34  45  37  46 / 100  40  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ049.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/77









000
FXUS66 KPQR 220524
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
923 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE TODAY...BRINGING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION. AS OF 9 PM THIS
EVENING THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT HOOD RIVER TO CORVALLIS...WITH
GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AHEAD OF IT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OREGON OVERNIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AIR
MASS WHICH WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS TO BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO
MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.EVENING UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM...A POTENT COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
ABOUT HOOD RIVER TO CORVALLIS...MOVING E-SE AT ABOUT 30 MPH. GUSTY
S-SW WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 0.50-1.00 INCH FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A COUPLE SPOTS
EXCEEDING 2.50 INCHES IN THE S WA CASCADES AND N OR COAST RANGE.

COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO DROP
BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR CASCADES ZONES...THIS
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE
3500-4000 FT ELEVATION DUE TO STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE COAST
SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE SUNBREAKS WHICH COULD PUSH TEMPS UP
ABOVE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE...WHICH IS GENERALLY AROUND 50 DEG F
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. LOOKING OFFSHORE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A BIT OF A TRIGGER...IN THE FORM OF A POST-FRONTAL
TROUGH NEAR 134W. THEREFORE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
INLAND FROM THE COAST/COASTAL WATERS ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS SAT
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 347 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG AND MOIST LOW PRES SYSTEM IS BRINGING A RETURN
TO SEASONAL PAC NW LATE FALL WEATHER TODAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS
SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING WARM
FRONT MOVING ONSHORE. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM AS SEEN ON AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH IS SHOWING A PLUME
OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OFFSHORE. SO FAR MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN...WHILE SOME SITES IN THE NORTHERN COAST RANGE ARE CLOSING IN ON
AN INCH. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM
UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
IS NOW SHOWING UP CLEARLY ON THE VELOCITY DATA OF THE LOWEST
ELEVATION SCAN OF THE KLGX RADAR. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL
START PUSHING ONTO THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THEN PUSH INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONG SW WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WILL SWITCH TO
WESTERLY AND DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM...BUT EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BE OVER BEFORE THEN.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN TO WELL ABOVE 6000 FEET
TODAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP SHARPLY TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SAT IN GOOD
WEST/NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE S WASHINGTON...N OREGON...AND LANE COUNTY CASCADE
ZONES FROM EARLY SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT EVENING. EXPECT 5 TO 10
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT THE PASSES THROUGH SAT EVENING...WITH WELL
OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SUN...POSSIBLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE...AS NEAR SHORE OCEAN TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S IN
MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL BOOST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE FCST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS SLIGHT POTENTIAL OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THEM TO
THE FCST AT THIS TIME. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC LATE SUN
INTO MON AND REMAINS APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP US DRY. THE LATEST FCST
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE NORTH SPREADING RAIN INTO
SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD.
PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SOME OVERNIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN...OSCILLATING SOME BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. WINDS TURN WEST
AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST EARLY
SATURDAY BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SO ISOLATED THAT HAVE NOT MENTIONED.
INLAND...EXPECT VFR CIGS BY 18-20Z IF NOT ALREADY...WITH MVFR
STILL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS
THE BOARD IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL LOW MVFR WITH RAIN.
WINDS DECREASING AND TURNING MORE WEST AND NORTHWEST. BOWEN


&&

.MARINE...THE COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE. AS
SUCH...HAVE CANCELLED GALE WARNING AND REPLACED WITH SCA FOR BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS. WITH BUOYS 29 AND 89 ALREADY SHOWING MARGINAL SCA
WINDS...MAY NOT NEED IT FOR THE FULL TIME BUT HAVE ERRED ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION FOR NOW. SEAS HAVE DECREASED SOME AND WILL RELAX
TO AROUND 13 FT BY VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...STAYING AROUND
THAT LEVEL THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT SWELL MOVES IN. SEAS LOOK
LIKE THEY`LL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOWEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 220524
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
923 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE TODAY...BRINGING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION. AS OF 9 PM THIS
EVENING THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT HOOD RIVER TO CORVALLIS...WITH
GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AHEAD OF IT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OREGON OVERNIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AIR
MASS WHICH WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS TO BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO
MON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.EVENING UPDATE...AS OF 9 PM...A POTENT COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
ABOUT HOOD RIVER TO CORVALLIS...MOVING E-SE AT ABOUT 30 MPH. GUSTY
S-SW WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 0.50-1.00 INCH FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A COUPLE SPOTS
EXCEEDING 2.50 INCHES IN THE S WA CASCADES AND N OR COAST RANGE.

COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO DROP
BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR CASCADES ZONES...THIS
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE
3500-4000 FT ELEVATION DUE TO STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE COAST
SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE SUNBREAKS WHICH COULD PUSH TEMPS UP
ABOVE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE...WHICH IS GENERALLY AROUND 50 DEG F
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS. LOOKING OFFSHORE THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A BIT OF A TRIGGER...IN THE FORM OF A POST-FRONTAL
TROUGH NEAR 134W. THEREFORE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
INLAND FROM THE COAST/COASTAL WATERS ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS SAT
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 347 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG AND MOIST LOW PRES SYSTEM IS BRINGING A RETURN
TO SEASONAL PAC NW LATE FALL WEATHER TODAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS
SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING WARM
FRONT MOVING ONSHORE. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM AS SEEN ON AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH IS SHOWING A PLUME
OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OFFSHORE. SO FAR MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN...WHILE SOME SITES IN THE NORTHERN COAST RANGE ARE CLOSING IN ON
AN INCH. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM
UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
IS NOW SHOWING UP CLEARLY ON THE VELOCITY DATA OF THE LOWEST
ELEVATION SCAN OF THE KLGX RADAR. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL
START PUSHING ONTO THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THEN PUSH INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONG SW WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WILL SWITCH TO
WESTERLY AND DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM...BUT EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BE OVER BEFORE THEN.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN TO WELL ABOVE 6000 FEET
TODAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP SHARPLY TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SAT IN GOOD
WEST/NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE S WASHINGTON...N OREGON...AND LANE COUNTY CASCADE
ZONES FROM EARLY SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT EVENING. EXPECT 5 TO 10
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT THE PASSES THROUGH SAT EVENING...WITH WELL
OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SUN...POSSIBLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE...AS NEAR SHORE OCEAN TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S IN
MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL BOOST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE FCST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS SLIGHT POTENTIAL OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THEM TO
THE FCST AT THIS TIME. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC LATE SUN
INTO MON AND REMAINS APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP US DRY. THE LATEST FCST
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE NORTH SPREADING RAIN INTO
SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD.
PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SOME OVERNIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN...OSCILLATING SOME BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. WINDS TURN WEST
AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST EARLY
SATURDAY BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SO ISOLATED THAT HAVE NOT MENTIONED.
INLAND...EXPECT VFR CIGS BY 18-20Z IF NOT ALREADY...WITH MVFR
STILL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS
THE BOARD IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL LOW MVFR WITH RAIN.
WINDS DECREASING AND TURNING MORE WEST AND NORTHWEST. BOWEN


&&

.MARINE...THE COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE. AS
SUCH...HAVE CANCELLED GALE WARNING AND REPLACED WITH SCA FOR BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS. WITH BUOYS 29 AND 89 ALREADY SHOWING MARGINAL SCA
WINDS...MAY NOT NEED IT FOR THE FULL TIME BUT HAVE ERRED ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION FOR NOW. SEAS HAVE DECREASED SOME AND WILL RELAX
TO AROUND 13 FT BY VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...STAYING AROUND
THAT LEVEL THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT SWELL MOVES IN. SEAS LOOK
LIKE THEY`LL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOWEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 220333 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
833 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE...STRONG 50DBZ ECHOES WITH AN AREA OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE SE ACROSS AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S - KMUO WAS
37 SO MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 5000 FT MSL IS EXPECTED. NO IN CLOUD
LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED EITHER - IT IS JUST INTENSE RAIN. THE NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP WAS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL REACH
THE ORE- IDA BORDER AROUND 0030L. WHILE BURNS WAS 36...ROME AND
GRANT COUNTY/JOHN DAY WERE IN THE 40S WITH GUSTY WINDS 30-40 MPH.
ONTARIO WAS 31 WITH FOG DEVELOPING. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN IN THE AREA FROM ONTARIO-
FRUITLAND-CALDWELL-PARMA- GREENLEAF FROM AROUND 1 AM TO 3 AM SO
WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FZRA UP FOR NOW. /END
UPDATE/. PRECIPITATION INTENSIFIED ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE OREGON-
IDAHO BORDER THIS EVENING. THIS HAD RESULTED IN COLDER
PRECIPITATION...A WINTRY MIX AND SLICK ROADS. SINCE 7 PM FREEZING
RAIN HAD BEEN REPORTED BY ASOS IN ONTARIO AND TRAINED SPOTTERS
IN/NEAR WEISER. HIGH TEMPS STAYED AT OR BELOW FREEZING TOO -
AROUND ONTARIO. STUBBORN COLD POOL WEST OF NAMPA AND AROUND PARMA
THROUGH CAMBRIDGE WILL LIKELY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. SO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS UP AGAIN FOR WINTRY TRAVEL /CALDWELL-
ONTARIO AND PARMA-FRUITLAND- WEISER/ WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF
NEW SNOW AND UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY 8 AM SATURDAY. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST
WILL BE OUT BY 845 PM MST.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN KBOI AND KONO UNTIL
AROUND 15Z. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS KBNO AND KBKE
AT 14Z...KMYL AT 15Z...KBOI AT 16Z...AND KTWF/KJER AT 18Z. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BECOME SCATTERED FOLLOWING THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT
TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUING AFTER
18Z. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST
15-25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 60 KTS AT 10K
FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD FROM BAKER COUNTY OREGON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER STORM HEADED DIRECTLY
INTO THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE WARMED MORE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND
THIS HAS A DIRECT IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE FOR TONIGHT. WE HAVE
REMOVED ALMOST ALL MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ALONG RT 95 FROM MIDVALE TO COUNCIL... WHERE
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER INITIAL SNOWFALL
AND BEFORE IT TURNS TO ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH CONFIDENCE
NOW SO LOW IN FREEZING RAIN...WE HAVE REMOVED ALL OF THE LOWER
ELEVATION ADVISORIES FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM...INCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY. WE STILL BELIEVE BAKER WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW
AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT THAT IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUING THE
ADVISORY. WE IMAGINE THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A
BRIEF TIME IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED VALLEYS IN BAKER COUNTY AS
WELL...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN. ELSEWHERE...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY HAS WARMED TO
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY ALSO BEGIN AS A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT THIS...TOO...WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN QUICKLY. THE ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW
ABOVE AROUND 4500 FEET. SNOWFALL MAY EXCEED 24 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL GET 3 TO 9 INCHES. WINDS ON
THE PEAKS IN SE OREGON WILL BE STRONG TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE...AND THIS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. SO ODDLY ENOUGH...EVEN THOUGH A
COLD FRONT IS COMING THROUGH...HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE HIGHER THAN
TODAY FOR THAT AREA. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS DECREASE
TOMORROW. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PICK
BACK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE AREA IN
NW FLOW. THE VALLEYS MAY SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE ELSE. TUESDAY ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE BUILDING A
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE IS NO REAL
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS
BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION/UPDATE...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 220333 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
833 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE...STRONG 50DBZ ECHOES WITH AN AREA OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE SE ACROSS AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S - KMUO WAS
37 SO MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 5000 FT MSL IS EXPECTED. NO IN CLOUD
LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED EITHER - IT IS JUST INTENSE RAIN. THE NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP WAS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL REACH
THE ORE- IDA BORDER AROUND 0030L. WHILE BURNS WAS 36...ROME AND
GRANT COUNTY/JOHN DAY WERE IN THE 40S WITH GUSTY WINDS 30-40 MPH.
ONTARIO WAS 31 WITH FOG DEVELOPING. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN IN THE AREA FROM ONTARIO-
FRUITLAND-CALDWELL-PARMA- GREENLEAF FROM AROUND 1 AM TO 3 AM SO
WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FZRA UP FOR NOW. /END
UPDATE/. PRECIPITATION INTENSIFIED ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE OREGON-
IDAHO BORDER THIS EVENING. THIS HAD RESULTED IN COLDER
PRECIPITATION...A WINTRY MIX AND SLICK ROADS. SINCE 7 PM FREEZING
RAIN HAD BEEN REPORTED BY ASOS IN ONTARIO AND TRAINED SPOTTERS
IN/NEAR WEISER. HIGH TEMPS STAYED AT OR BELOW FREEZING TOO -
AROUND ONTARIO. STUBBORN COLD POOL WEST OF NAMPA AND AROUND PARMA
THROUGH CAMBRIDGE WILL LIKELY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. SO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS UP AGAIN FOR WINTRY TRAVEL /CALDWELL-
ONTARIO AND PARMA-FRUITLAND- WEISER/ WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF
NEW SNOW AND UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY 8 AM SATURDAY. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST
WILL BE OUT BY 845 PM MST.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN KBOI AND KONO UNTIL
AROUND 15Z. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS KBNO AND KBKE
AT 14Z...KMYL AT 15Z...KBOI AT 16Z...AND KTWF/KJER AT 18Z. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BECOME SCATTERED FOLLOWING THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT
TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUING AFTER
18Z. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST
15-25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 60 KTS AT 10K
FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD FROM BAKER COUNTY OREGON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER STORM HEADED DIRECTLY
INTO THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE WARMED MORE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND
THIS HAS A DIRECT IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE FOR TONIGHT. WE HAVE
REMOVED ALMOST ALL MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ALONG RT 95 FROM MIDVALE TO COUNCIL... WHERE
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER INITIAL SNOWFALL
AND BEFORE IT TURNS TO ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH CONFIDENCE
NOW SO LOW IN FREEZING RAIN...WE HAVE REMOVED ALL OF THE LOWER
ELEVATION ADVISORIES FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM...INCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY. WE STILL BELIEVE BAKER WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW
AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT THAT IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUING THE
ADVISORY. WE IMAGINE THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A
BRIEF TIME IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED VALLEYS IN BAKER COUNTY AS
WELL...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN. ELSEWHERE...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY HAS WARMED TO
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY ALSO BEGIN AS A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT THIS...TOO...WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN QUICKLY. THE ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW
ABOVE AROUND 4500 FEET. SNOWFALL MAY EXCEED 24 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL GET 3 TO 9 INCHES. WINDS ON
THE PEAKS IN SE OREGON WILL BE STRONG TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE...AND THIS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. SO ODDLY ENOUGH...EVEN THOUGH A
COLD FRONT IS COMING THROUGH...HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE HIGHER THAN
TODAY FOR THAT AREA. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS DECREASE
TOMORROW. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PICK
BACK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE AREA IN
NW FLOW. THE VALLEYS MAY SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE ELSE. TUESDAY ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE BUILDING A
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE IS NO REAL
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS
BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION/UPDATE...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 220333
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
833 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE
OREGON-IDAHO BORDER THIS EVENING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN COLDER
PRECIPITATION...WINTRY MIX AND SLICK ROADS. SINCE 7 PM FREEZING
RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED BY ASOS IN ONTARIO AND TRAINED SPOTTERS
IN/NEAR WEISER. HIGH TEMPS STAYED AT OR BELOW FREEZING TOO AROUND
ONTARIO. STUBBORN COLD POOL WEST OF NAMPA AND AROUND PARMA
THROUGH CAMBRIDGE WILL LIKELY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. SO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS UP AGAIN FOR WINTRY TRAVEL /CALDWELL-
ONTARIO AND PARMA-FRUITLAND-WEISER/ WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF
NEW SNOW AND UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY 8 AM SATURDAY. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST
WILL BE OUT BY 845 PM MST.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN KBOI AND KONO UNTIL
AROUND 15Z. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS KBNO AND KBKE
AT 14Z...KMYL AT 15Z...KBOI AT 16Z...AND KTWF/KJER AT 18Z. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BECOME SCATTERED FOLLOWING THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT
TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUING AFTER
18Z. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST
15-25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 60 KTS AT 10K
FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD FROM BAKER COUNTY OREGON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER STORM HEADED DIRECTLY
INTO THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE WARMED MORE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND
THIS HAS A DIRECT IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE FOR TONIGHT. WE HAVE
REMOVED ALMOST ALL MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ALONG RT 95 FROM MIDVALE TO COUNCIL... WHERE
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER INITIAL SNOWFALL
AND BEFORE IT TURNS TO ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH CONFIDENCE
NOW SO LOW IN FREEZING RAIN...WE HAVE REMOVED ALL OF THE LOWER
ELEVATION ADVISORIES FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM...INCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY. WE STILL BELIEVE BAKER WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW
AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT THAT IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUING THE
ADVISORY. WE IMAGINE THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A
BRIEF TIME IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED VALLEYS IN BAKER COUNTY AS
WELL...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN. ELSEWHERE...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY HAS WARMED TO
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY ALSO BEGIN AS A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT THIS...TOO...WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN QUICKLY. THE ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW
ABOVE AROUND 4500 FEET. SNOWFALL MAY EXCEED 24 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL GET 3 TO 9 INCHES. WINDS ON
THE PEAKS IN SE OREGON WILL BE STRONG TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE...AND THIS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. SO ODDLY ENOUGH...EVEN THOUGH A
COLD FRONT IS COMING THROUGH...HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE HIGHER THAN
TODAY FOR THAT AREA. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS DECREASE
TOMORROW. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PICK
BACK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE AREA IN
NW FLOW. THE VALLEYS MAY SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE ELSE. TUESDAY ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE BUILDING A
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE IS NO REAL
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS
BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 220333
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
833 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE
OREGON-IDAHO BORDER THIS EVENING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN COLDER
PRECIPITATION...WINTRY MIX AND SLICK ROADS. SINCE 7 PM FREEZING
RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED BY ASOS IN ONTARIO AND TRAINED SPOTTERS
IN/NEAR WEISER. HIGH TEMPS STAYED AT OR BELOW FREEZING TOO AROUND
ONTARIO. STUBBORN COLD POOL WEST OF NAMPA AND AROUND PARMA
THROUGH CAMBRIDGE WILL LIKELY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. SO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS UP AGAIN FOR WINTRY TRAVEL /CALDWELL-
ONTARIO AND PARMA-FRUITLAND-WEISER/ WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF
NEW SNOW AND UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY 8 AM SATURDAY. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST
WILL BE OUT BY 845 PM MST.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN KBOI AND KONO UNTIL
AROUND 15Z. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS KBNO AND KBKE
AT 14Z...KMYL AT 15Z...KBOI AT 16Z...AND KTWF/KJER AT 18Z. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BECOME SCATTERED FOLLOWING THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT
TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUING AFTER
18Z. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST
15-25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 60 KTS AT 10K
FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD FROM BAKER COUNTY OREGON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER STORM HEADED DIRECTLY
INTO THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE WARMED MORE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND
THIS HAS A DIRECT IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE FOR TONIGHT. WE HAVE
REMOVED ALMOST ALL MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ALONG RT 95 FROM MIDVALE TO COUNCIL... WHERE
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER INITIAL SNOWFALL
AND BEFORE IT TURNS TO ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH CONFIDENCE
NOW SO LOW IN FREEZING RAIN...WE HAVE REMOVED ALL OF THE LOWER
ELEVATION ADVISORIES FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM...INCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY. WE STILL BELIEVE BAKER WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW
AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT THAT IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUING THE
ADVISORY. WE IMAGINE THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A
BRIEF TIME IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED VALLEYS IN BAKER COUNTY AS
WELL...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN. ELSEWHERE...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY HAS WARMED TO
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY ALSO BEGIN AS A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT THIS...TOO...WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN QUICKLY. THE ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW
ABOVE AROUND 4500 FEET. SNOWFALL MAY EXCEED 24 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL GET 3 TO 9 INCHES. WINDS ON
THE PEAKS IN SE OREGON WILL BE STRONG TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE...AND THIS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. SO ODDLY ENOUGH...EVEN THOUGH A
COLD FRONT IS COMING THROUGH...HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE HIGHER THAN
TODAY FOR THAT AREA. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS DECREASE
TOMORROW. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PICK
BACK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE AREA IN
NW FLOW. THE VALLEYS MAY SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE ELSE. TUESDAY ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE BUILDING A
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE IS NO REAL
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS
BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS66 KMFR 220239 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
639 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT BREAK BEHIND IT EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE NOSE OF
A 150-160 KT JET AT 250MB WILL BE DIRECTED RIGHT INTO OREGON
TONIGHT AND THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. EVENING IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD
TOPS JUST OFFSHORE AND RADAR TRENDS IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO ARE
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN RETURNS ALONG THE COAST. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE MOVING ONSHORE AND EXPECT INCREASING
PRECIPITATION AGAIN INLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. AMSU BLENDED TOTAL
PW IMAGERY SHOWS 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME, SO RAIN
RATES SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE JET ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD. TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE MAXIMUM FORCING MOVING OVER MEDFORD BETWEEN 06Z
AND 15Z, SO EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THIS TIME. DID NOT SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE QPF GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WE`LL BE MONITORING RAIN RATES
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCAR AREAS,
ESPECIALLY WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE STRONG WITH SUMMER LAKE
REPORTING A GUST OF 63 MPH EARLIER THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVEN`T
BEEN QUITE AS STRONG ALONG THE COAST WITH MAX GUSTS IN THE 45-55
MPH RANGE. SINCE THE CORE OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING, I HAVE ADJUSTED WIND HEADLINES TO
SPEED UP THE END TIMES AT THE COAST. SIMILARLY, HAVE SPED UP THE
START TIMES OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE ADVISORY IN THE SHASTA VALLEY
LOOKS GOOD. REFER TO NPWMFR FOR DETAILS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY MORNING
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW WILL OCCUR IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE
CASCADES, ESPECIALLY CRATER LAKE. REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT AT SPSMFR FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING SNOW POTENTIAL
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/00Z TAF CYCLE...RAIN AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VIS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG
AT THE TERMINALS, BUT MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BUMPY RIDES INTO ALL TERMINALS UNTIL THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

EAST OF THE CASCADES...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THEN CIGS AND VIS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014...

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DECREASE. MODERATE WESTERLY SWELL
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SATURDAY...SO SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS
FOR A WHILE LONGER. /SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM WITH TROPICAL CONNECTIONS AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS TAKING AIM AT THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE
WATERS, COASTAL HEADLANDS AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. BOTH OF THESE
IMPACTS WILL BE ADDRESSED BELOW.

PRECIPITATION...850 WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS OF 40-45 KTS. THIS WILL LEAVE CURRY COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
JOSEPHINE COUNTIES PRIMED FOR UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES WITH MOST OF THAT IN
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. QPF
AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED HIGHER IN THESE AREAS. THE CASCADES, WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE CASCADES COULD GET
UPWARDS UP TO 3 INCHES. THIS WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR THE
BURN SCARS FOR WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. WESTSIDE VALLEYS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE MIX
OF RAINFALL WITH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE SURROUNDING HILLS. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS IN A RELATIVE
SENSE EAST OF THE CASCADES DUE IN PART TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT,
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS INTENSE. HOWEVER A MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST RESULTING IN OROGRAPHIC FLOW ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT`S
LIKELY SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE NEAR CRATER AND DIAMOND
LAKES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SEE THE  SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS ON THIS. WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE WITH MOST ENDING
OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.

WINDS...SOUTH WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND WILL
ONLY RAMP UP MORE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PORT ORFORD REPORTED
PEAK WIND GUST OF 48 MPH AND A 41 MPH GUST AT GOLD BEACH. ALSO CAPE
BLANCO HAD A PEAK WIND GUST OF 70 MPH. WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING
INLAND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THE HIGHEST CONCERN FOR WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES,
INCLUDING PORT ORFORD. OF LESS CONCERN IS THE SHASTA VALLEY, BUT
THEY WILL STILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH COULD BE A
CONCERN FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. TONIGHT THE CONCERN FOR STRONG
WINDS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES 700MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 75 KTS TONIGHT. THEREFORE IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME
AREAS WILL GET SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 50 MPH WITH GUST APPROACHING 70
MPH ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR SUMMIT LAKE. SEE
NPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS. MODELS SHOW 700MB WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING SATURDAY, BUT STILL NEAR 50 KTS.

THE WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER RIDGING NUDGES INTO THE AREA. IT`S NOT A SHARP RIDGE, BUT
RATHER FLAT, BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHIFT THE STORM TRACK NORTH
OF OUR AREA AND WE`LL END UP DRY. ON MONDAY THE GFS SHOWS WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVING NEAR THE AREA, BUT THE EC DOES NOT. FOR
NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO AND KEPT IN A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
RUNS OF GFS AND EC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE PACNW EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS RIDGE MAY BE FAIRLY DIRTY (IE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION STREAMING OVER THE TOP) THE PATTERN LOOKS
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH IN AMPLITUDE TO DEFLECT ANY PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS
TO OUR NORTH. FOR THIS REASON, I REMOVED POPS FROM MUCH OF OUR AREA
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG AND FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE A GOOD BET IN THE VALLEYS IN
THIS SCENARIO. THE RIDGE IS FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND DOESN`T LOOK TO
STAY VERY LONG, SO AIR STAGNATION PROBABLY WON`T BE AN ISSUE THIS
TIME AROUND. BUT I DID INSERT PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY, MODEL CONSISTENCY REALLY GOES OUT THE WINDOW. WHAT
THEY SEEM TO AGREE ON IS MOVING THE RIDGE OUT AND DEVELOPING MORE
ZONAL FLOW INTO THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS WEAK
TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST, BUT SPREAD GROW QUICKLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY
AND INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT. NEVERTHELESS, WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, IT MAKES SENSE TO HAVE POPS AT CLIMO OR HIGHER
FOR AT LEAST THE WATERS AND COAST.

ON FRIDAY, THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW A
DECENT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA, BUT SPREADS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH, SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER, IT SEEMED REASONABLE TO HAVE CLIMO POPS
OVER MORE OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, NEITHER SOLUTION IS
PARTICULARLY WET OR COLD ON FRIDAY, SO IT SHOUDN`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THUS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO UPDATES AS
WE GET CLOSER. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-615-619.
     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ080-081-280-281.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-370-376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/SVEN/MAP/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 220239 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
639 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT BREAK BEHIND IT EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE NOSE OF
A 150-160 KT JET AT 250MB WILL BE DIRECTED RIGHT INTO OREGON
TONIGHT AND THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. EVENING IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD
TOPS JUST OFFSHORE AND RADAR TRENDS IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO ARE
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN RETURNS ALONG THE COAST. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE MOVING ONSHORE AND EXPECT INCREASING
PRECIPITATION AGAIN INLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. AMSU BLENDED TOTAL
PW IMAGERY SHOWS 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME, SO RAIN
RATES SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE JET ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD. TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE MAXIMUM FORCING MOVING OVER MEDFORD BETWEEN 06Z
AND 15Z, SO EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THIS TIME. DID NOT SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE QPF GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WE`LL BE MONITORING RAIN RATES
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCAR AREAS,
ESPECIALLY WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE STRONG WITH SUMMER LAKE
REPORTING A GUST OF 63 MPH EARLIER THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVEN`T
BEEN QUITE AS STRONG ALONG THE COAST WITH MAX GUSTS IN THE 45-55
MPH RANGE. SINCE THE CORE OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING, I HAVE ADJUSTED WIND HEADLINES TO
SPEED UP THE END TIMES AT THE COAST. SIMILARLY, HAVE SPED UP THE
START TIMES OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE ADVISORY IN THE SHASTA VALLEY
LOOKS GOOD. REFER TO NPWMFR FOR DETAILS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY MORNING
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW WILL OCCUR IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE
CASCADES, ESPECIALLY CRATER LAKE. REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT AT SPSMFR FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING SNOW POTENTIAL
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/00Z TAF CYCLE...RAIN AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VIS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG
AT THE TERMINALS, BUT MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BUMPY RIDES INTO ALL TERMINALS UNTIL THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

EAST OF THE CASCADES...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THEN CIGS AND VIS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014...

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DECREASE. MODERATE WESTERLY SWELL
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SATURDAY...SO SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS
FOR A WHILE LONGER. /SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM WITH TROPICAL CONNECTIONS AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS TAKING AIM AT THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE
WATERS, COASTAL HEADLANDS AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. BOTH OF THESE
IMPACTS WILL BE ADDRESSED BELOW.

PRECIPITATION...850 WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS OF 40-45 KTS. THIS WILL LEAVE CURRY COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
JOSEPHINE COUNTIES PRIMED FOR UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES WITH MOST OF THAT IN
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. QPF
AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED HIGHER IN THESE AREAS. THE CASCADES, WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE CASCADES COULD GET
UPWARDS UP TO 3 INCHES. THIS WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR THE
BURN SCARS FOR WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. WESTSIDE VALLEYS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE MIX
OF RAINFALL WITH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE SURROUNDING HILLS. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS IN A RELATIVE
SENSE EAST OF THE CASCADES DUE IN PART TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT,
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS INTENSE. HOWEVER A MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST RESULTING IN OROGRAPHIC FLOW ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT`S
LIKELY SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE NEAR CRATER AND DIAMOND
LAKES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SEE THE  SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS ON THIS. WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE WITH MOST ENDING
OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.

WINDS...SOUTH WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND WILL
ONLY RAMP UP MORE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PORT ORFORD REPORTED
PEAK WIND GUST OF 48 MPH AND A 41 MPH GUST AT GOLD BEACH. ALSO CAPE
BLANCO HAD A PEAK WIND GUST OF 70 MPH. WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING
INLAND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THE HIGHEST CONCERN FOR WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES,
INCLUDING PORT ORFORD. OF LESS CONCERN IS THE SHASTA VALLEY, BUT
THEY WILL STILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH COULD BE A
CONCERN FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. TONIGHT THE CONCERN FOR STRONG
WINDS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES 700MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 75 KTS TONIGHT. THEREFORE IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME
AREAS WILL GET SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 50 MPH WITH GUST APPROACHING 70
MPH ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR SUMMIT LAKE. SEE
NPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS. MODELS SHOW 700MB WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING SATURDAY, BUT STILL NEAR 50 KTS.

THE WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER RIDGING NUDGES INTO THE AREA. IT`S NOT A SHARP RIDGE, BUT
RATHER FLAT, BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHIFT THE STORM TRACK NORTH
OF OUR AREA AND WE`LL END UP DRY. ON MONDAY THE GFS SHOWS WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVING NEAR THE AREA, BUT THE EC DOES NOT. FOR
NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO AND KEPT IN A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
RUNS OF GFS AND EC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE PACNW EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS RIDGE MAY BE FAIRLY DIRTY (IE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION STREAMING OVER THE TOP) THE PATTERN LOOKS
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH IN AMPLITUDE TO DEFLECT ANY PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS
TO OUR NORTH. FOR THIS REASON, I REMOVED POPS FROM MUCH OF OUR AREA
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG AND FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE A GOOD BET IN THE VALLEYS IN
THIS SCENARIO. THE RIDGE IS FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND DOESN`T LOOK TO
STAY VERY LONG, SO AIR STAGNATION PROBABLY WON`T BE AN ISSUE THIS
TIME AROUND. BUT I DID INSERT PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY, MODEL CONSISTENCY REALLY GOES OUT THE WINDOW. WHAT
THEY SEEM TO AGREE ON IS MOVING THE RIDGE OUT AND DEVELOPING MORE
ZONAL FLOW INTO THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS WEAK
TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST, BUT SPREAD GROW QUICKLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY
AND INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT. NEVERTHELESS, WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, IT MAKES SENSE TO HAVE POPS AT CLIMO OR HIGHER
FOR AT LEAST THE WATERS AND COAST.

ON FRIDAY, THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW A
DECENT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA, BUT SPREADS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH, SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER, IT SEEMED REASONABLE TO HAVE CLIMO POPS
OVER MORE OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, NEITHER SOLUTION IS
PARTICULARLY WET OR COLD ON FRIDAY, SO IT SHOUDN`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THUS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO UPDATES AS
WE GET CLOSER. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-615-619.
     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ080-081-280-281.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-370-376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/SVEN/MAP/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 220239 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
639 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT BREAK BEHIND IT EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE NOSE OF
A 150-160 KT JET AT 250MB WILL BE DIRECTED RIGHT INTO OREGON
TONIGHT AND THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. EVENING IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD
TOPS JUST OFFSHORE AND RADAR TRENDS IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO ARE
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN RETURNS ALONG THE COAST. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE MOVING ONSHORE AND EXPECT INCREASING
PRECIPITATION AGAIN INLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. AMSU BLENDED TOTAL
PW IMAGERY SHOWS 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME, SO RAIN
RATES SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE JET ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD. TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE MAXIMUM FORCING MOVING OVER MEDFORD BETWEEN 06Z
AND 15Z, SO EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THIS TIME. DID NOT SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE QPF GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WE`LL BE MONITORING RAIN RATES
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCAR AREAS,
ESPECIALLY WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE STRONG WITH SUMMER LAKE
REPORTING A GUST OF 63 MPH EARLIER THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVEN`T
BEEN QUITE AS STRONG ALONG THE COAST WITH MAX GUSTS IN THE 45-55
MPH RANGE. SINCE THE CORE OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING, I HAVE ADJUSTED WIND HEADLINES TO
SPEED UP THE END TIMES AT THE COAST. SIMILARLY, HAVE SPED UP THE
START TIMES OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE ADVISORY IN THE SHASTA VALLEY
LOOKS GOOD. REFER TO NPWMFR FOR DETAILS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY MORNING
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW WILL OCCUR IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE
CASCADES, ESPECIALLY CRATER LAKE. REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT AT SPSMFR FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING SNOW POTENTIAL
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/00Z TAF CYCLE...RAIN AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VIS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG
AT THE TERMINALS, BUT MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BUMPY RIDES INTO ALL TERMINALS UNTIL THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

EAST OF THE CASCADES...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THEN CIGS AND VIS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014...

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DECREASE. MODERATE WESTERLY SWELL
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SATURDAY...SO SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS
FOR A WHILE LONGER. /SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM WITH TROPICAL CONNECTIONS AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS TAKING AIM AT THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE
WATERS, COASTAL HEADLANDS AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. BOTH OF THESE
IMPACTS WILL BE ADDRESSED BELOW.

PRECIPITATION...850 WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS OF 40-45 KTS. THIS WILL LEAVE CURRY COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
JOSEPHINE COUNTIES PRIMED FOR UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES WITH MOST OF THAT IN
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. QPF
AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED HIGHER IN THESE AREAS. THE CASCADES, WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE CASCADES COULD GET
UPWARDS UP TO 3 INCHES. THIS WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR THE
BURN SCARS FOR WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. WESTSIDE VALLEYS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE MIX
OF RAINFALL WITH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE SURROUNDING HILLS. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS IN A RELATIVE
SENSE EAST OF THE CASCADES DUE IN PART TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT,
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS INTENSE. HOWEVER A MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST RESULTING IN OROGRAPHIC FLOW ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT`S
LIKELY SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE NEAR CRATER AND DIAMOND
LAKES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SEE THE  SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS ON THIS. WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE WITH MOST ENDING
OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.

WINDS...SOUTH WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND WILL
ONLY RAMP UP MORE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PORT ORFORD REPORTED
PEAK WIND GUST OF 48 MPH AND A 41 MPH GUST AT GOLD BEACH. ALSO CAPE
BLANCO HAD A PEAK WIND GUST OF 70 MPH. WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING
INLAND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THE HIGHEST CONCERN FOR WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES,
INCLUDING PORT ORFORD. OF LESS CONCERN IS THE SHASTA VALLEY, BUT
THEY WILL STILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH COULD BE A
CONCERN FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. TONIGHT THE CONCERN FOR STRONG
WINDS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES 700MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 75 KTS TONIGHT. THEREFORE IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME
AREAS WILL GET SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 50 MPH WITH GUST APPROACHING 70
MPH ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR SUMMIT LAKE. SEE
NPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS. MODELS SHOW 700MB WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING SATURDAY, BUT STILL NEAR 50 KTS.

THE WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER RIDGING NUDGES INTO THE AREA. IT`S NOT A SHARP RIDGE, BUT
RATHER FLAT, BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHIFT THE STORM TRACK NORTH
OF OUR AREA AND WE`LL END UP DRY. ON MONDAY THE GFS SHOWS WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVING NEAR THE AREA, BUT THE EC DOES NOT. FOR
NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO AND KEPT IN A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
RUNS OF GFS AND EC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE PACNW EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS RIDGE MAY BE FAIRLY DIRTY (IE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION STREAMING OVER THE TOP) THE PATTERN LOOKS
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH IN AMPLITUDE TO DEFLECT ANY PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS
TO OUR NORTH. FOR THIS REASON, I REMOVED POPS FROM MUCH OF OUR AREA
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG AND FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE A GOOD BET IN THE VALLEYS IN
THIS SCENARIO. THE RIDGE IS FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND DOESN`T LOOK TO
STAY VERY LONG, SO AIR STAGNATION PROBABLY WON`T BE AN ISSUE THIS
TIME AROUND. BUT I DID INSERT PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY, MODEL CONSISTENCY REALLY GOES OUT THE WINDOW. WHAT
THEY SEEM TO AGREE ON IS MOVING THE RIDGE OUT AND DEVELOPING MORE
ZONAL FLOW INTO THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS WEAK
TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST, BUT SPREAD GROW QUICKLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY
AND INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT. NEVERTHELESS, WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, IT MAKES SENSE TO HAVE POPS AT CLIMO OR HIGHER
FOR AT LEAST THE WATERS AND COAST.

ON FRIDAY, THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW A
DECENT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA, BUT SPREADS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH, SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER, IT SEEMED REASONABLE TO HAVE CLIMO POPS
OVER MORE OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, NEITHER SOLUTION IS
PARTICULARLY WET OR COLD ON FRIDAY, SO IT SHOUDN`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THUS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO UPDATES AS
WE GET CLOSER. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-615-619.
     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ080-081-280-281.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-370-376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/SVEN/MAP/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 220239 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
639 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE WAS A
SIGNIFICANT BREAK BEHIND IT EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE NOSE OF
A 150-160 KT JET AT 250MB WILL BE DIRECTED RIGHT INTO OREGON
TONIGHT AND THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. EVENING IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD
TOPS JUST OFFSHORE AND RADAR TRENDS IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO ARE
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN RETURNS ALONG THE COAST. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE MOVING ONSHORE AND EXPECT INCREASING
PRECIPITATION AGAIN INLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. AMSU BLENDED TOTAL
PW IMAGERY SHOWS 1.25-1.75 INCHES WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME, SO RAIN
RATES SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE JET ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD. TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE MAXIMUM FORCING MOVING OVER MEDFORD BETWEEN 06Z
AND 15Z, SO EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THIS TIME. DID NOT SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE QPF GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WE`LL BE MONITORING RAIN RATES
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCAR AREAS,
ESPECIALLY WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE STRONG WITH SUMMER LAKE
REPORTING A GUST OF 63 MPH EARLIER THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVEN`T
BEEN QUITE AS STRONG ALONG THE COAST WITH MAX GUSTS IN THE 45-55
MPH RANGE. SINCE THE CORE OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING, I HAVE ADJUSTED WIND HEADLINES TO
SPEED UP THE END TIMES AT THE COAST. SIMILARLY, HAVE SPED UP THE
START TIMES OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE ADVISORY IN THE SHASTA VALLEY
LOOKS GOOD. REFER TO NPWMFR FOR DETAILS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY MORNING
AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW WILL OCCUR IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE
CASCADES, ESPECIALLY CRATER LAKE. REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT AT SPSMFR FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING SNOW POTENTIAL
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/00Z TAF CYCLE...RAIN AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VIS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG
AT THE TERMINALS, BUT MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BUMPY RIDES INTO ALL TERMINALS UNTIL THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

EAST OF THE CASCADES...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THEN CIGS AND VIS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014...

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DECREASE. MODERATE WESTERLY SWELL
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SATURDAY...SO SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS
FOR A WHILE LONGER. /SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM WITH TROPICAL CONNECTIONS AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS TAKING AIM AT THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE
WATERS, COASTAL HEADLANDS AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. BOTH OF THESE
IMPACTS WILL BE ADDRESSED BELOW.

PRECIPITATION...850 WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS OF 40-45 KTS. THIS WILL LEAVE CURRY COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
JOSEPHINE COUNTIES PRIMED FOR UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES WITH MOST OF THAT IN
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. QPF
AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED HIGHER IN THESE AREAS. THE CASCADES, WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE CASCADES COULD GET
UPWARDS UP TO 3 INCHES. THIS WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR THE
BURN SCARS FOR WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. WESTSIDE VALLEYS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE MIX
OF RAINFALL WITH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE SURROUNDING HILLS. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS IN A RELATIVE
SENSE EAST OF THE CASCADES DUE IN PART TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT,
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS INTENSE. HOWEVER A MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST RESULTING IN OROGRAPHIC FLOW ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT`S
LIKELY SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE NEAR CRATER AND DIAMOND
LAKES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SEE THE  SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS ON THIS. WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE WITH MOST ENDING
OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.

WINDS...SOUTH WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND WILL
ONLY RAMP UP MORE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PORT ORFORD REPORTED
PEAK WIND GUST OF 48 MPH AND A 41 MPH GUST AT GOLD BEACH. ALSO CAPE
BLANCO HAD A PEAK WIND GUST OF 70 MPH. WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING
INLAND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THE HIGHEST CONCERN FOR WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES,
INCLUDING PORT ORFORD. OF LESS CONCERN IS THE SHASTA VALLEY, BUT
THEY WILL STILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH COULD BE A
CONCERN FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. TONIGHT THE CONCERN FOR STRONG
WINDS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES 700MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 75 KTS TONIGHT. THEREFORE IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME
AREAS WILL GET SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 50 MPH WITH GUST APPROACHING 70
MPH ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR SUMMIT LAKE. SEE
NPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS. MODELS SHOW 700MB WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING SATURDAY, BUT STILL NEAR 50 KTS.

THE WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER RIDGING NUDGES INTO THE AREA. IT`S NOT A SHARP RIDGE, BUT
RATHER FLAT, BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHIFT THE STORM TRACK NORTH
OF OUR AREA AND WE`LL END UP DRY. ON MONDAY THE GFS SHOWS WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVING NEAR THE AREA, BUT THE EC DOES NOT. FOR
NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO AND KEPT IN A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
RUNS OF GFS AND EC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE PACNW EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS RIDGE MAY BE FAIRLY DIRTY (IE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION STREAMING OVER THE TOP) THE PATTERN LOOKS
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH IN AMPLITUDE TO DEFLECT ANY PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS
TO OUR NORTH. FOR THIS REASON, I REMOVED POPS FROM MUCH OF OUR AREA
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG AND FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE A GOOD BET IN THE VALLEYS IN
THIS SCENARIO. THE RIDGE IS FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND DOESN`T LOOK TO
STAY VERY LONG, SO AIR STAGNATION PROBABLY WON`T BE AN ISSUE THIS
TIME AROUND. BUT I DID INSERT PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY, MODEL CONSISTENCY REALLY GOES OUT THE WINDOW. WHAT
THEY SEEM TO AGREE ON IS MOVING THE RIDGE OUT AND DEVELOPING MORE
ZONAL FLOW INTO THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS WEAK
TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST, BUT SPREAD GROW QUICKLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY
AND INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT. NEVERTHELESS, WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, IT MAKES SENSE TO HAVE POPS AT CLIMO OR HIGHER
FOR AT LEAST THE WATERS AND COAST.

ON FRIDAY, THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW A
DECENT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA, BUT SPREADS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH, SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER, IT SEEMED REASONABLE TO HAVE CLIMO POPS
OVER MORE OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, NEITHER SOLUTION IS
PARTICULARLY WET OR COLD ON FRIDAY, SO IT SHOUDN`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THUS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO UPDATES AS
WE GET CLOSER. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-615-619.
     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ080-081-280-281.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-370-376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/SVEN/MAP/TRW




000
FXUS66 KPQR 212348
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
347 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING ONSHORE
TODAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
AND VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP SHARPLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...REACHING DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASSES
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG AND MOIST LOW PRES SYSTEM IS BRINGING A RETURN
TO SEASONAL PAC NW LATE FALL WEATHER TODAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS
SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING WARM
FRONT MOVING ONSHORE. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM AS SEEN ON AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH IS SHOWING A PLUME
OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OFFSHORE. SO FAR MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN...WHILE SOME SITES IN THE NORTHERN COAST RANGE ARE CLOSING IN ON
AN INCH. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM
UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
IS NOW SHOWING UP CLEARLY ON THE VELOCITY DATA OF THE LOWEST
ELEVATION SCAN OF THE KLGX RADAR. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL
START PUSHING ONTO THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THEN PUSH INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONG SW WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WILL SWITCH TO
WESTERLY AND DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM...BUT EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BE OVER BEFORE THEN.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN TO WELL ABOVE 6000 FEET
TODAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP SHARPLY TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SAT IN GOOD
WEST/NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE S WASHINGTON...N OREGON...AND LANE COUNTY CASCADE
ZONES FROM EARLY SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT EVENING. EXPECT 5 TO 10
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT THE PASSES THROUGH SAT EVENING...WITH WELL
OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SUN...POSSIBLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE...AS NEAR SHORE OCEAN TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S IN
MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL BOOST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE FCST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS SLIGHT POTENTIAL OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THEM TO
THE FCST AT THIS TIME. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC LATE SUN
INTO MON AND REMAINS APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP US DRY. THE LATEST FCST
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE NORTH SPREADING RAIN INTO
SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD.
PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE
VALLEY...WHILE HIGH WINDS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. LLWS LIKELY AT
KTTD AS SOUTHERLIES INCREASE TO 30-50 KTS ABOVE THE LOW- LEVEL
EASTERLIES...BELOW FL030. THIS SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z AS
EASTERLIES WEAKEN.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...KEEPING
CIGS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COAST EARLY TOMORROW. INLAND...EXPECT CIGS TO BEGIN LIFTING AROUND
16Z. INLAND SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY 18-20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD
LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR OCCASIONALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AROUND
03Z...AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IFR OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT AROUND 16Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18Z.

-MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY GALES CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. SEAS
NEAR 15 FT ALONG THE NORTH COAST...18FT BEING OBSERVED AT BUOY 50
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATER THIS EVENING...PEAKING AROUND 22 FT
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND AROUND 20 FT ALONG THE NORTH COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INLAND...WITH WINDS REACHING 40 TO 45 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
ABOVE 50 KTS MAINLY IN THE INNER WATERS NEAR THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...DROPPING TO 15 TO 20
KTS OVERNIGHT.

SEAS TOMORROW LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 13 TO 14 FT TOMORROW. ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE WATERS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WEAKER...BUT SEAS IN THE LOW TEENS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SEAS BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS ON SUNDAY.

-MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
    OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
    SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
    FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
    PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 212348
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
347 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING ONSHORE
TODAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
AND VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP SHARPLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...REACHING DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASSES
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG AND MOIST LOW PRES SYSTEM IS BRINGING A RETURN
TO SEASONAL PAC NW LATE FALL WEATHER TODAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS
SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING WARM
FRONT MOVING ONSHORE. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM AS SEEN ON AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH IS SHOWING A PLUME
OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OFFSHORE. SO FAR MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN...WHILE SOME SITES IN THE NORTHERN COAST RANGE ARE CLOSING IN ON
AN INCH. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM
UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
IS NOW SHOWING UP CLEARLY ON THE VELOCITY DATA OF THE LOWEST
ELEVATION SCAN OF THE KLGX RADAR. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL
START PUSHING ONTO THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THEN PUSH INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONG SW WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WILL SWITCH TO
WESTERLY AND DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM...BUT EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BE OVER BEFORE THEN.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN TO WELL ABOVE 6000 FEET
TODAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP SHARPLY TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SAT IN GOOD
WEST/NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE S WASHINGTON...N OREGON...AND LANE COUNTY CASCADE
ZONES FROM EARLY SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT EVENING. EXPECT 5 TO 10
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT THE PASSES THROUGH SAT EVENING...WITH WELL
OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SUN...POSSIBLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE...AS NEAR SHORE OCEAN TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S IN
MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL BOOST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE FCST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS SLIGHT POTENTIAL OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THEM TO
THE FCST AT THIS TIME. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC LATE SUN
INTO MON AND REMAINS APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP US DRY. THE LATEST FCST
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE NORTH SPREADING RAIN INTO
SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD.
PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE
VALLEY...WHILE HIGH WINDS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. LLWS LIKELY AT
KTTD AS SOUTHERLIES INCREASE TO 30-50 KTS ABOVE THE LOW- LEVEL
EASTERLIES...BELOW FL030. THIS SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z AS
EASTERLIES WEAKEN.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...KEEPING
CIGS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COAST EARLY TOMORROW. INLAND...EXPECT CIGS TO BEGIN LIFTING AROUND
16Z. INLAND SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY 18-20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD
LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR OCCASIONALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AROUND
03Z...AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IFR OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT AROUND 16Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18Z.

-MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY GALES CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. SEAS
NEAR 15 FT ALONG THE NORTH COAST...18FT BEING OBSERVED AT BUOY 50
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATER THIS EVENING...PEAKING AROUND 22 FT
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND AROUND 20 FT ALONG THE NORTH COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INLAND...WITH WINDS REACHING 40 TO 45 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
ABOVE 50 KTS MAINLY IN THE INNER WATERS NEAR THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...DROPPING TO 15 TO 20
KTS OVERNIGHT.

SEAS TOMORROW LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 13 TO 14 FT TOMORROW. ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE WATERS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WEAKER...BUT SEAS IN THE LOW TEENS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SEAS BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS ON SUNDAY.

-MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
    OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
    SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
    FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
    PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 212348
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
347 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING ONSHORE
TODAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
AND VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP SHARPLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...REACHING DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASSES
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG AND MOIST LOW PRES SYSTEM IS BRINGING A RETURN
TO SEASONAL PAC NW LATE FALL WEATHER TODAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS
SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING WARM
FRONT MOVING ONSHORE. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM AS SEEN ON AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH IS SHOWING A PLUME
OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OFFSHORE. SO FAR MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN...WHILE SOME SITES IN THE NORTHERN COAST RANGE ARE CLOSING IN ON
AN INCH. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM
UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
IS NOW SHOWING UP CLEARLY ON THE VELOCITY DATA OF THE LOWEST
ELEVATION SCAN OF THE KLGX RADAR. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL
START PUSHING ONTO THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THEN PUSH INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONG SW WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WILL SWITCH TO
WESTERLY AND DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM...BUT EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BE OVER BEFORE THEN.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN TO WELL ABOVE 6000 FEET
TODAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP SHARPLY TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SAT IN GOOD
WEST/NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE S WASHINGTON...N OREGON...AND LANE COUNTY CASCADE
ZONES FROM EARLY SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT EVENING. EXPECT 5 TO 10
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT THE PASSES THROUGH SAT EVENING...WITH WELL
OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SUN...POSSIBLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE...AS NEAR SHORE OCEAN TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S IN
MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL BOOST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE FCST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS SLIGHT POTENTIAL OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THEM TO
THE FCST AT THIS TIME. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC LATE SUN
INTO MON AND REMAINS APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP US DRY. THE LATEST FCST
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE NORTH SPREADING RAIN INTO
SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD.
PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE
VALLEY...WHILE HIGH WINDS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. LLWS LIKELY AT
KTTD AS SOUTHERLIES INCREASE TO 30-50 KTS ABOVE THE LOW- LEVEL
EASTERLIES...BELOW FL030. THIS SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z AS
EASTERLIES WEAKEN.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...KEEPING
CIGS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COAST EARLY TOMORROW. INLAND...EXPECT CIGS TO BEGIN LIFTING AROUND
16Z. INLAND SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY 18-20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD
LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR OCCASIONALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AROUND
03Z...AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IFR OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT AROUND 16Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18Z.

-MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY GALES CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. SEAS
NEAR 15 FT ALONG THE NORTH COAST...18FT BEING OBSERVED AT BUOY 50
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATER THIS EVENING...PEAKING AROUND 22 FT
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND AROUND 20 FT ALONG THE NORTH COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INLAND...WITH WINDS REACHING 40 TO 45 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
ABOVE 50 KTS MAINLY IN THE INNER WATERS NEAR THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...DROPPING TO 15 TO 20
KTS OVERNIGHT.

SEAS TOMORROW LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 13 TO 14 FT TOMORROW. ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE WATERS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WEAKER...BUT SEAS IN THE LOW TEENS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SEAS BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS ON SUNDAY.

-MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
    OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
    SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
    FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
    PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 212348
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
347 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING ONSHORE
TODAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
AND VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP SHARPLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...REACHING DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASSES
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC BEGINNING LATE SUN INTO MON.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOW PRES SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG AND MOIST LOW PRES SYSTEM IS BRINGING A RETURN
TO SEASONAL PAC NW LATE FALL WEATHER TODAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS
SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING WARM
FRONT MOVING ONSHORE. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM AS SEEN ON AMSU SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH IS SHOWING A PLUME
OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OFFSHORE. SO FAR MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN...WHILE SOME SITES IN THE NORTHERN COAST RANGE ARE CLOSING IN ON
AN INCH. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM
UNTIL THE TRAILING COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
IS NOW SHOWING UP CLEARLY ON THE VELOCITY DATA OF THE LOWEST
ELEVATION SCAN OF THE KLGX RADAR. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL
START PUSHING ONTO THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THEN PUSH INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONG SW WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WILL SWITCH TO
WESTERLY AND DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM...BUT EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BE OVER BEFORE THEN.

THE STEADY RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN TO WELL ABOVE 6000 FEET
TODAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP SHARPLY TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP DOWN TO THE CASCADE PASS
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SAT IN GOOD
WEST/NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE S WASHINGTON...N OREGON...AND LANE COUNTY CASCADE
ZONES FROM EARLY SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT EVENING. EXPECT 5 TO 10
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT THE PASSES THROUGH SAT EVENING...WITH WELL
OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SUN...POSSIBLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD AND SEASONAL WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE...AS NEAR SHORE OCEAN TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S IN
MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL BOOST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE FCST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS SLIGHT POTENTIAL OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THEM TO
THE FCST AT THIS TIME. PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NE PAC LATE SUN
INTO MON AND REMAINS APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP US DRY. THE LATEST FCST
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE NORTH SPREADING RAIN INTO
SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON. PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD.
PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE
VALLEY...WHILE HIGH WINDS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. LLWS LIKELY AT
KTTD AS SOUTHERLIES INCREASE TO 30-50 KTS ABOVE THE LOW- LEVEL
EASTERLIES...BELOW FL030. THIS SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z AS
EASTERLIES WEAKEN.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...KEEPING
CIGS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COAST EARLY TOMORROW. INLAND...EXPECT CIGS TO BEGIN LIFTING AROUND
16Z. INLAND SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY 18-20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD
LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR OCCASIONALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AROUND
03Z...AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IFR OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT AROUND 16Z...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18Z.

-MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY GALES CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. SEAS
NEAR 15 FT ALONG THE NORTH COAST...18FT BEING OBSERVED AT BUOY 50
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATER THIS EVENING...PEAKING AROUND 22 FT
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND AROUND 20 FT ALONG THE NORTH COAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INLAND...WITH WINDS REACHING 40 TO 45 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
ABOVE 50 KTS MAINLY IN THE INNER WATERS NEAR THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...DROPPING TO 15 TO 20
KTS OVERNIGHT.

SEAS TOMORROW LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 13 TO 14 FT TOMORROW. ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE WATERS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
WEAKER...BUT SEAS IN THE LOW TEENS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SEAS BACK UP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS ON SUNDAY.

-MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
    OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
    SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
    FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
    PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 212342 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
342 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A WINTERY MIX IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
CREATING WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
AREA LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY. ALSO
AN UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT AN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THROUGH ON SUNDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OF RAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL
THEN BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND CONSEQUENT
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND BRINGS MORE
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR OR WORSE AT
KDLS...KPDT...KYKM...KALW AND KPSC IN RAIN AND/OR FOG THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AT KPSC AND
KYKM...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT FREEZING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL. CEILINGS ARE ALSO STARTING TO DROP AT KBDN AS THE RAIN
MOVES IN. KRDM COULD REMAIN VFR...BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP
THERE AS WELL. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  45  35  45 /  90  50  30  40
ALW  37  46  38  45 /  90  50  40  50
PSC  36  48  37  49 /  90  30  10  30
YKM  32  45  31  46 /  90  30  10  20
HRI  36  46  36  48 /  90  40  20  30
ELN  32  45  31  44 /  90  30  10  30
RDM  37  46  25  41 /  90  50  40  10
LGD  38  41  32  38 /  90  70  50  60
GCD  33  40  30  38 /  90  70  40  40
DLS  35  45  37  46 / 100  50  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ049.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/82/82






000
FXUS66 KPDT 212342 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
342 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A WINTERY MIX IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
CREATING WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
AREA LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY. ALSO
AN UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT AN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THROUGH ON SUNDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OF RAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL
THEN BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND CONSEQUENT
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND BRINGS MORE
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR OR WORSE AT
KDLS...KPDT...KYKM...KALW AND KPSC IN RAIN AND/OR FOG THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AT KPSC AND
KYKM...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT FREEZING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL. CEILINGS ARE ALSO STARTING TO DROP AT KBDN AS THE RAIN
MOVES IN. KRDM COULD REMAIN VFR...BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP
THERE AS WELL. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  45  35  45 /  90  50  30  40
ALW  37  46  38  45 /  90  50  40  50
PSC  36  48  37  49 /  90  30  10  30
YKM  32  45  31  46 /  90  30  10  20
HRI  36  46  36  48 /  90  40  20  30
ELN  32  45  31  44 /  90  30  10  30
RDM  37  46  25  41 /  90  50  40  10
LGD  38  41  32  38 /  90  70  50  60
GCD  33  40  30  38 /  90  70  40  40
DLS  35  45  37  46 / 100  50  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ049.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/82/82






000
FXUS66 KPDT 212342 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
342 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A WINTERY MIX IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
CREATING WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
AREA LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY. ALSO
AN UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT AN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THROUGH ON SUNDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OF RAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL
THEN BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND CONSEQUENT
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND BRINGS MORE
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR OR WORSE AT
KDLS...KPDT...KYKM...KALW AND KPSC IN RAIN AND/OR FOG THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AT KPSC AND
KYKM...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT FREEZING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL. CEILINGS ARE ALSO STARTING TO DROP AT KBDN AS THE RAIN
MOVES IN. KRDM COULD REMAIN VFR...BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP
THERE AS WELL. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  45  35  45 /  90  50  30  40
ALW  37  46  38  45 /  90  50  40  50
PSC  36  48  37  49 /  90  30  10  30
YKM  32  45  31  46 /  90  30  10  20
HRI  36  46  36  48 /  90  40  20  30
ELN  32  45  31  44 /  90  30  10  30
RDM  37  46  25  41 /  90  50  40  10
LGD  38  41  32  38 /  90  70  50  60
GCD  33  40  30  38 /  90  70  40  40
DLS  35  45  37  46 / 100  50  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ049.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/82/82






000
FXUS66 KPDT 212342 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
342 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A WINTERY MIX IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
CREATING WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
AREA LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY. ALSO
AN UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT AN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THROUGH ON SUNDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OF RAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL
THEN BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND CONSEQUENT
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND BRINGS MORE
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR OR WORSE AT
KDLS...KPDT...KYKM...KALW AND KPSC IN RAIN AND/OR FOG THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AT KPSC AND
KYKM...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT FREEZING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL. CEILINGS ARE ALSO STARTING TO DROP AT KBDN AS THE RAIN
MOVES IN. KRDM COULD REMAIN VFR...BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP
THERE AS WELL. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  45  35  45 /  90  50  30  40
ALW  37  46  38  45 /  90  50  40  50
PSC  36  48  37  49 /  90  30  10  30
YKM  32  45  31  46 /  90  30  10  20
HRI  36  46  36  48 /  90  40  20  30
ELN  32  45  31  44 /  90  30  10  30
RDM  37  46  25  41 /  90  50  40  10
LGD  38  41  32  38 /  90  70  50  60
GCD  33  40  30  38 /  90  70  40  40
DLS  35  45  37  46 / 100  50  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ049.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/82/82






000
FXUS66 KPDT 212231 CCA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
156 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A WINTERY MIX IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
CREATING WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
AREA LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY. ALSO
AN UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT AN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THROUGH ON SUNDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OF RAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL
THEN BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND CONSEQUENT
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND BRINGS MORE
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BELOW VFR AT KDLS...KPDT...KYKM...KALW AND KPSC IN FOG THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER...BUT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. KRDM AND KBDN COULD
REMAIN VFR...BUT THEIR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP AS WELL. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND
HAZE. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS.  82



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  45  35  45 /  90  50  30  40
ALW  37  46  38  45 /  90  50  40  50
PSC  36  48  37  49 /  90  30  10  30
YKM  32  45  31  46 /  90  30  10  20
HRI  36  46  36  48 /  90  40  20  30
ELN  32  45  31  44 /  90  30  10  30
RDM  37  46  25  41 /  90  50  40  10
LGD  38  41  32  38 /  90  70  50  60
GCD  33  40  30  38 /  90  70  40  40
DLS  35  45  37  46 / 100  50  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ049.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 212229
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
156 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A WINTERY MIX IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
CREATING WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
AREA LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. WITH THE LEFT OVER MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW THE BLUE MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE
3500 FEET INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT AN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THROUGH ON SUNDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OF RAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL
THEN BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND CONSEQUENT
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND BRINGS MORE
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BELOW VFR AT KDLS...KPDT...KYKM...KALW AND KPSC IN FOG THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER...BUT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. KRDM AND KBDN COULD
REMAIN VFR...BUT THEIR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP AS WELL. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND
HAZE. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS.  82



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  45  35  45 /  90  50  30  40
ALW  37  46  38  45 /  90  50  40  50
PSC  36  48  37  49 /  90  30  10  30
YKM  32  45  31  46 /  90  30  10  20
HRI  36  46  36  48 /  90  40  20  30
ELN  32  45  31  44 /  90  30  10  30
RDM  37  46  25  41 /  90  50  40  10
LGD  38  41  32  38 /  90  70  50  60
GCD  33  40  30  38 /  90  70  40  40
DLS  35  45  37  46 / 100  50  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ049.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 212229
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
156 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A WINTERY MIX IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
CREATING WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
AREA LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. WITH THE LEFT OVER MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW THE BLUE MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE
3500 FEET INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT AN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THROUGH ON SUNDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OF RAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL
THEN BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S. ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND CONSEQUENT
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND BRINGS MORE
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BELOW VFR AT KDLS...KPDT...KYKM...KALW AND KPSC IN FOG THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER...BUT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. KRDM AND KBDN COULD
REMAIN VFR...BUT THEIR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP AS WELL. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND
HAZE. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS.  82



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  45  35  45 /  90  50  30  40
ALW  37  46  38  45 /  90  50  40  50
PSC  36  48  37  49 /  90  30  10  30
YKM  32  45  31  46 /  90  30  10  20
HRI  36  46  36  48 /  90  40  20  30
ELN  32  45  31  44 /  90  30  10  30
RDM  37  46  25  41 /  90  50  40  10
LGD  38  41  32  38 /  90  70  50  60
GCD  33  40  30  38 /  90  70  40  40
DLS  35  45  37  46 / 100  50  30  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ049.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/82/82








000
FXUS66 KMFR 212220
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
220 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM WITH TROPICAL CONNECTIONS AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS TAKING AIM AT THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE
WATERS, COASTAL HEADLANDS AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. BOTH OF THESE
IMPACTS WILL BE ADDRESSED BELOW.

PRECIPITATION...850 WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS OF 40-45 KTS. THIS WILL LEAVE CURRY COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
JOSEPHINE COUNTIES PRIMED FOR UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES WITH MOST OF THAT IN
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. QPF
AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED HIGHER IN THESE AREAS. THE CASCADES, WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE CASCADES COULD GET
UPWARDS UP TO 3 INCHES. THIS WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR THE
BURN SCARS FOR WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. WESTSIDE VALLEYS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE MIX
OF RAINFALL WITH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE SURROUNDING HILLS. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS IN A RELATIVE
SENSE EAST OF THE CASCADES DUE IN PART TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT,
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS INTENSE. HOWEVER A MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST RESULTING IN OROGRAPHIC FLOW ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT`S
LIKELY SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE NEAR CRATER AND DIAMOND
LAKES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SEE THE  SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS ON THIS. WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE WITH MOST ENDING
OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.

WINDS...SOUTH WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND WILL
ONLY RAMP UP MORE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PORT ORFORD REPORTED
PEAK WIND GUST OF 48 MPH AND A 41 MPH GUST AT GOLD BEACH. ALSO CAPE
BLANCO HAD A PEAK WIND GUST OF 70 MPH. WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING
INLAND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THE HIGHEST CONCERN FOR WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES,
INCLUDING PORT ORFORD. OF LESS CONCERN IS THE SHASTA VALLEY, BUT
THEY WILL STILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH COULD BE A
CONCERN FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. TONIGHT THE CONCERN FOR STRONG
WINDS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES 700MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 75 KTS TONIGHT. THEREFORE IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME
AREAS WILL GET SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 50 MPH WITH GUST APPROACHING 70
MPH ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR SUMMIT LAKE. SEE
NPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS. MODELS SHOW 700MB WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING SATURDAY, BUT STILL NEAR 50 KTS.

THE WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER RIDGING NUDGES INTO THE AREA. IT`S NOT A SHARP RIDGE, BUT
RATHER FLAT, BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHIFT THE STORM TRACK NORTH
OF OUR AREA AND WE`LL END UP DRY. ON MONDAY THE GFS SHOWS WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVING NEAR THE AREA, BUT THE EC DOES NOT. FOR
NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO AND KEPT IN A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. -PETRUCELLI


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
RUNS OF GFS AND EC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE PACNW EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS RIDGE MAY BE FAIRLY DIRTY (IE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION STREAMING OVER THE TOP) THE PATTERN LOOKS
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH IN AMPLITUDE TO DEFLECT ANY PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS
TO OUR NORTH. FOR THIS REASON, I REMOVED POPS FROM MUCH OF OUR AREA
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG AND FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE A GOOD BET IN THE VALLEYS IN
THIS SCENARIO. THE RIDGE IS FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND DOESN`T LOOK TO
STAY VERY LONG, SO AIR STAGNATION PROBABLY WON`T BE AN ISSUE THIS
TIME AROUND. BUT I DID INSERT PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY, MODEL CONSISTENCY REALLY GOES OUT THE WINDOW. WHAT
THEY SEEM TO AGREE ON IS MOVING THE RIDGE OUT AND DEVELOPING MORE
ZONAL FLOW INTO THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS WEAK
TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST, BUT SPREAD GROW QUICKLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY
AND INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT. NEVERTHELESS, WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, IT MAKES SENSE TO HAVE POPS AT CLIMO OR HIGHER
FOR AT LEAST THE WATERS AND COAST.

ON FRIDAY, THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW A
DECENT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA, BUT SPREADS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH, SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER, IT SEEMED REASONABLE TO HAVE CLIMO POPS
OVER MORE OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, NEITHER SOLUTION IS
PARTICULARLY WET OR COLD ON FRIDAY, SO IT SHOUDN`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THUS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO UPDATES AS
WE GET CLOSER. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 21/18Z TAF CYCLE...RAIN WILL INCREASE AND CIGS
WILL LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST. RAIN AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. PRE-
FRONTAL SOUTH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG AT THE
TERMINALS, BUT MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BUMPY RIDES INTO ALL TERMINALS UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

EAST OF THE CASCADES...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN CIGS AND VIS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014...A STRONG FRONT MOVING
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCER. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG SOUTH WINDS MAY BE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WIND SPREEDS REACHING STORM
FORCE FOR WATERS WITHIN 25 NM OF THE COAST FROM GOLD BEACH NORTH AND
GALES LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VERY STEEP SEAS BUILDING TO 20 TO 24 FT ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE AREA
WHERE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH 16 TO 20 FT SEAS
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL
OCCUR AT LOW TIDE...SO ONLY LIMITED COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. OF
GREATEST CONCERN IS THE AREA NEAR PORT ORFORD.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DECREASE. MODERATE WESTERLY SWELL
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SATURDAY...SO SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS
FOR A WHILE LONGER. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-615-619.
     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ085-285.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ080-081-280-281.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 212220
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
220 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM WITH TROPICAL CONNECTIONS AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS TAKING AIM AT THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE
WATERS, COASTAL HEADLANDS AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. BOTH OF THESE
IMPACTS WILL BE ADDRESSED BELOW.

PRECIPITATION...850 WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS OF 40-45 KTS. THIS WILL LEAVE CURRY COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
JOSEPHINE COUNTIES PRIMED FOR UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES WITH MOST OF THAT IN
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. QPF
AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED HIGHER IN THESE AREAS. THE CASCADES, WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE CASCADES COULD GET
UPWARDS UP TO 3 INCHES. THIS WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR THE
BURN SCARS FOR WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. WESTSIDE VALLEYS WILL ALSO GET INTO THE MIX
OF RAINFALL WITH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE SURROUNDING HILLS. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS IN A RELATIVE
SENSE EAST OF THE CASCADES DUE IN PART TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT,
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS INTENSE. HOWEVER A MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST RESULTING IN OROGRAPHIC FLOW ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT`S
LIKELY SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE NEAR CRATER AND DIAMOND
LAKES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SEE THE  SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR DETAILS ON THIS. WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE WITH MOST ENDING
OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.

WINDS...SOUTH WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND WILL
ONLY RAMP UP MORE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PORT ORFORD REPORTED
PEAK WIND GUST OF 48 MPH AND A 41 MPH GUST AT GOLD BEACH. ALSO CAPE
BLANCO HAD A PEAK WIND GUST OF 70 MPH. WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING
INLAND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THE HIGHEST CONCERN FOR WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES,
INCLUDING PORT ORFORD. OF LESS CONCERN IS THE SHASTA VALLEY, BUT
THEY WILL STILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH COULD BE A
CONCERN FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. TONIGHT THE CONCERN FOR STRONG
WINDS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES 700MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 75 KTS TONIGHT. THEREFORE IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME
AREAS WILL GET SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 50 MPH WITH GUST APPROACHING 70
MPH ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR SUMMIT LAKE. SEE
NPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS. MODELS SHOW 700MB WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING SATURDAY, BUT STILL NEAR 50 KTS.

THE WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER RIDGING NUDGES INTO THE AREA. IT`S NOT A SHARP RIDGE, BUT
RATHER FLAT, BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHIFT THE STORM TRACK NORTH
OF OUR AREA AND WE`LL END UP DRY. ON MONDAY THE GFS SHOWS WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVING NEAR THE AREA, BUT THE EC DOES NOT. FOR
NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO AND KEPT IN A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. -PETRUCELLI


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
RUNS OF GFS AND EC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE PACNW EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS RIDGE MAY BE FAIRLY DIRTY (IE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION STREAMING OVER THE TOP) THE PATTERN LOOKS
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH IN AMPLITUDE TO DEFLECT ANY PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS
TO OUR NORTH. FOR THIS REASON, I REMOVED POPS FROM MUCH OF OUR AREA
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG AND FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE A GOOD BET IN THE VALLEYS IN
THIS SCENARIO. THE RIDGE IS FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND DOESN`T LOOK TO
STAY VERY LONG, SO AIR STAGNATION PROBABLY WON`T BE AN ISSUE THIS
TIME AROUND. BUT I DID INSERT PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY, MODEL CONSISTENCY REALLY GOES OUT THE WINDOW. WHAT
THEY SEEM TO AGREE ON IS MOVING THE RIDGE OUT AND DEVELOPING MORE
ZONAL FLOW INTO THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS WEAK
TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST, BUT SPREAD GROW QUICKLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY
AND INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT. NEVERTHELESS, WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, IT MAKES SENSE TO HAVE POPS AT CLIMO OR HIGHER
FOR AT LEAST THE WATERS AND COAST.

ON FRIDAY, THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW A
DECENT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA, BUT SPREADS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH, SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER, IT SEEMED REASONABLE TO HAVE CLIMO POPS
OVER MORE OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, NEITHER SOLUTION IS
PARTICULARLY WET OR COLD ON FRIDAY, SO IT SHOUDN`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND, THUS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO UPDATES AS
WE GET CLOSER. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 21/18Z TAF CYCLE...RAIN WILL INCREASE AND CIGS
WILL LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST. RAIN AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. PRE-
FRONTAL SOUTH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG AT THE
TERMINALS, BUT MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BUMPY RIDES INTO ALL TERMINALS UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

EAST OF THE CASCADES...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN CIGS AND VIS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014...A STRONG FRONT MOVING
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCER. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG SOUTH WINDS MAY BE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WIND SPREEDS REACHING STORM
FORCE FOR WATERS WITHIN 25 NM OF THE COAST FROM GOLD BEACH NORTH AND
GALES LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VERY STEEP SEAS BUILDING TO 20 TO 24 FT ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE AREA
WHERE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH 16 TO 20 FT SEAS
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL
OCCUR AT LOW TIDE...SO ONLY LIMITED COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. OF
GREATEST CONCERN IS THE AREA NEAR PORT ORFORD.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DECREASE. MODERATE WESTERLY SWELL
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SATURDAY...SO SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS
FOR A WHILE LONGER. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-615-619.
     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ085-285.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ080-081-280-281.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 212201
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
301 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER STORM HEADED
DIRECTLY INTO THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE WARMED MORE THAN EXPECTED
TODAY...AND THIS HAS A DIRECT IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE FOR TONIGHT.
WE HAVE REMOVED ALMOST ALL MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ALONG RT 95 FROM MIDVALE TO COUNCIL...
WHERE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER INITIAL
SNOWFALL AND BEFORE IT TURNS TO ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH
CONFIDENCE NOW SO LOW IN FREEZING RAIN...WE HAVE REMOVED ALL OF
THE LOWER ELEVATION ADVISORIES FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM...INCLUDING
BAKER COUNTY. WE STILL BELIEVE BAKER WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOW AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT THAT IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUING THE
ADVISORY. WE IMAGINE THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A
BRIEF TIME IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED VALLEYS IN BAKER COUNTY AS
WELL...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN. ELSEWHERE...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY HAS WARMED TO
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY ALSO BEGIN AS A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT THIS...TOO...WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN QUICKLY. THE ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW
ABOVE AROUND 4500 FEET. SNOWFALL MAY EXCEED 24 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL GET 3 TO 9 INCHES. WINDS ON
THE PEAKS IN SE OREGON WILL BE STRONG TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE...AND THIS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. SO ODDLY ENOUGH...EVEN THOUGH A
COLD FRONT IS COMING THROUGH...HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE HIGHER THAN
TODAY FOR THAT AREA. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS DECREASE
TOMORROW. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PICK
BACK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE AREA IN
NW FLOW. THE VALLEYS MAY SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE ELSE. TUESDAY ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE BUILDING A
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE IS NO REAL
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS
BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS HAVE GONE ABOVE FREEZING SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN
HAS BEEN GREATLY REDUCED. SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4500 FEET MSL. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED
ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS SOUTH OF A KBNO-KTWF LINE.

SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS SATURDAY WILL BECOME WESTERLY 15 TO 20
KNOTS...GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SOUTH OF A KBNO-KJER LINE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY IDZ011-013-028.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS66 KPDT 212012 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1205 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...THE DENSE FOG HAD DECREASED ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. ALSO AS A STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PACNW...THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR THE MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS THE ZONES HAD BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG AND AIR STAGNATION HEADLINES.
THEREFORE THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION THE WIND ADVISORY OVER THE GRANDE RONDE AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES.
&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 940 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...THE LATEST SFC OBS WERE CONTINUING TO SHOW AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE BASIN WHERE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER STORM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE PACNW AND
SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME COLD AIR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN TRAPPED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A MIX OF FROZEN PCPN THAT HAS PROMPTED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN PRODUCING WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

AVIATION DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW VFR
AT KDLS...KPDT...KYKM...KALW AND KPSC IN FOG THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER...BUT AS RAIN
MOVES INTO THE AREA EXPECT CONDITIONS TO ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS. KRDM AND KBDN COULD REMAIN VFR...BUT THEIR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY DROP AS WELL. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG
WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND HAZE. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AFTER 12Z SATURDAY
AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS.  82

PREV DISC... /ISSUED 319 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT HAS
ALLOWED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY THE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. DENSE FOG LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
HAS A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH IT. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY
OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR ALONG
THE WASHINGTON EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIMINISHING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BREAK THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS CLEARING OUT THE FOG AND STRATUS AND ENDING THE AIR
STAGNATION EVENT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. 94

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVE AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DIVERGE AFTERWARDS WITH
THE GFS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AND THE ECMWF MILDER WEATHER
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA TO THE EAST. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS ON
SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR MOSTLY RAIN AREAWIDE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN COULD RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTH ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS. IF THE GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT IT COULD TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MORE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SWWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW HAVE JUST SHOWED A COOLING TREND BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THAT THE GFS WOULD INDICATE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
EXPOSED RIDGES. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  42  37  45  36 /  30  90  50  30
ALW  41  37  46  39 /  30  90  50  40
PSC  39  36  48  38 /  30  90  30  10
YKM  36  32  45  32 /  70  90  30  10
HRI  40  36  46  37 /  30  90  40  20
ELN  35  32  45  32 /  80  90  30  10
RDM  44  37  44  26 /  70  90  50  40
LGD  41  38  41  33 /  20  90  70  50
GCD  43  33  40  31 /  30  90  70  40
DLS  37  35  45  38 /  80 100  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ049.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/









000
FXUS66 KPDT 212012 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1205 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...THE DENSE FOG HAD DECREASED ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. ALSO AS A STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PACNW...THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR THE MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS THE ZONES HAD BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG AND AIR STAGNATION HEADLINES.
THEREFORE THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION THE WIND ADVISORY OVER THE GRANDE RONDE AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES.
&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 940 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...THE LATEST SFC OBS WERE CONTINUING TO SHOW AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE BASIN WHERE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER STORM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE PACNW AND
SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME COLD AIR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN TRAPPED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A MIX OF FROZEN PCPN THAT HAS PROMPTED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN PRODUCING WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

AVIATION DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW VFR
AT KDLS...KPDT...KYKM...KALW AND KPSC IN FOG THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER...BUT AS RAIN
MOVES INTO THE AREA EXPECT CONDITIONS TO ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS. KRDM AND KBDN COULD REMAIN VFR...BUT THEIR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY DROP AS WELL. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG
WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND HAZE. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AFTER 12Z SATURDAY
AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS.  82

PREV DISC... /ISSUED 319 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT HAS
ALLOWED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY THE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. DENSE FOG LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
HAS A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH IT. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY
OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR ALONG
THE WASHINGTON EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIMINISHING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BREAK THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS CLEARING OUT THE FOG AND STRATUS AND ENDING THE AIR
STAGNATION EVENT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. 94

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVE AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DIVERGE AFTERWARDS WITH
THE GFS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AND THE ECMWF MILDER WEATHER
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA TO THE EAST. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS ON
SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR MOSTLY RAIN AREAWIDE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN COULD RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTH ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS. IF THE GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT IT COULD TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MORE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SWWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW HAVE JUST SHOWED A COOLING TREND BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THAT THE GFS WOULD INDICATE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
EXPOSED RIDGES. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  42  37  45  36 /  30  90  50  30
ALW  41  37  46  39 /  30  90  50  40
PSC  39  36  48  38 /  30  90  30  10
YKM  36  32  45  32 /  70  90  30  10
HRI  40  36  46  37 /  30  90  40  20
ELN  35  32  45  32 /  80  90  30  10
RDM  44  37  44  26 /  70  90  50  40
LGD  41  38  41  33 /  20  90  70  50
GCD  43  33  40  31 /  30  90  70  40
DLS  37  35  45  38 /  80 100  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ049.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/









000
FXUS66 KPDT 212012 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1205 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...THE DENSE FOG HAD DECREASED ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. ALSO AS A STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PACNW...THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR THE MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS THE ZONES HAD BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG AND AIR STAGNATION HEADLINES.
THEREFORE THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION THE WIND ADVISORY OVER THE GRANDE RONDE AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES.
&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 940 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...THE LATEST SFC OBS WERE CONTINUING TO SHOW AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE BASIN WHERE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER STORM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE PACNW AND
SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME COLD AIR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN TRAPPED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A MIX OF FROZEN PCPN THAT HAS PROMPTED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN PRODUCING WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

AVIATION DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW VFR
AT KDLS...KPDT...KYKM...KALW AND KPSC IN FOG THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER...BUT AS RAIN
MOVES INTO THE AREA EXPECT CONDITIONS TO ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS. KRDM AND KBDN COULD REMAIN VFR...BUT THEIR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY DROP AS WELL. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG
WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND HAZE. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AFTER 12Z SATURDAY
AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS.  82

PREV DISC... /ISSUED 319 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT HAS
ALLOWED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY THE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. DENSE FOG LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
HAS A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH IT. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY
OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR ALONG
THE WASHINGTON EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIMINISHING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BREAK THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS CLEARING OUT THE FOG AND STRATUS AND ENDING THE AIR
STAGNATION EVENT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. 94

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVE AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DIVERGE AFTERWARDS WITH
THE GFS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AND THE ECMWF MILDER WEATHER
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA TO THE EAST. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS ON
SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR MOSTLY RAIN AREAWIDE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN COULD RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTH ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS. IF THE GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT IT COULD TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MORE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SWWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW HAVE JUST SHOWED A COOLING TREND BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THAT THE GFS WOULD INDICATE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
EXPOSED RIDGES. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  42  37  45  36 /  30  90  50  30
ALW  41  37  46  39 /  30  90  50  40
PSC  39  36  48  38 /  30  90  30  10
YKM  36  32  45  32 /  70  90  30  10
HRI  40  36  46  37 /  30  90  40  20
ELN  35  32  45  32 /  80  90  30  10
RDM  44  37  44  26 /  70  90  50  40
LGD  41  38  41  33 /  20  90  70  50
GCD  43  33  40  31 /  30  90  70  40
DLS  37  35  45  38 /  80 100  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ049.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/









000
FXUS66 KPDT 212012 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1205 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...THE DENSE FOG HAD DECREASED ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. ALSO AS A STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PACNW...THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR THE MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS THE ZONES HAD BEEN
UPDATED TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG AND AIR STAGNATION HEADLINES.
THEREFORE THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION THE WIND ADVISORY OVER THE GRANDE RONDE AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES.
&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 940 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...THE LATEST SFC OBS WERE CONTINUING TO SHOW AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE BASIN WHERE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER STORM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE PACNW AND
SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME COLD AIR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN TRAPPED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A MIX OF FROZEN PCPN THAT HAS PROMPTED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN PRODUCING WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

AVIATION DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW VFR
AT KDLS...KPDT...KYKM...KALW AND KPSC IN FOG THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER...BUT AS RAIN
MOVES INTO THE AREA EXPECT CONDITIONS TO ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS. KRDM AND KBDN COULD REMAIN VFR...BUT THEIR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY DROP AS WELL. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG
WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND HAZE. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AFTER 12Z SATURDAY
AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS.  82

PREV DISC... /ISSUED 319 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT HAS
ALLOWED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY THE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. DENSE FOG LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
HAS A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH IT. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY
OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR ALONG
THE WASHINGTON EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIMINISHING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BREAK THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS CLEARING OUT THE FOG AND STRATUS AND ENDING THE AIR
STAGNATION EVENT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. 94

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVE AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DIVERGE AFTERWARDS WITH
THE GFS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AND THE ECMWF MILDER WEATHER
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA TO THE EAST. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS ON
SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR MOSTLY RAIN AREAWIDE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN COULD RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTH ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS. IF THE GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT IT COULD TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MORE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SWWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW HAVE JUST SHOWED A COOLING TREND BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THAT THE GFS WOULD INDICATE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
EXPOSED RIDGES. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  42  37  45  36 /  30  90  50  30
ALW  41  37  46  39 /  30  90  50  40
PSC  39  36  48  38 /  30  90  30  10
YKM  36  32  45  32 /  70  90  30  10
HRI  40  36  46  37 /  30  90  40  20
ELN  35  32  45  32 /  80  90  30  10
RDM  44  37  44  26 /  70  90  50  40
LGD  41  38  41  33 /  20  90  70  50
GCD  43  33  40  31 /  30  90  70  40
DLS  37  35  45  38 /  80 100  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ049.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/









000
FXUS66 KPQR 211741
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
942 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. A FAIRLY STRONG AND MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY COASTAL WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE
THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY SATURDAY
WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT
SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE NW COAST TODAY...RIDING A ROBUST 160+ KT UPPER LEVEL
JET. A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE LEADING WARM FRONT IS MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST SO FAR...BUT WILL
PROCEED INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME TEMPS AROUND FREEZING IN
THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY...SO
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIP
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY ICING CONCERNS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP ALONG THE COAST AROUND
MIDDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM RAP AND HRRR MODEL
RUNS...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE EXISTING HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NORTH
AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST TO INCLUDE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AS
WELL. IT APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE LOW MIGHT BE TRACKING A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...WHICH MAY OPEN THE DOOR FOR AREAS
LIKE CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT TO PICK UP A FEW HIGH WIND CRITERIA GUSTS.
OVERALL...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MARGINAL WIND EVENT. SOME
BEACH AND EXPOSED HEADLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 60 TO
65 MPH...BUT THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND 4 TO 6 PM...AFTER WHICH THE COASTAL WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
RAPIDLY. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.

500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON SATURDAY. LIFTED
INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK VORT MAX THAT
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE INSTABILITY. SO HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AND INLAND TO
THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS
WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. PYLE/26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH BEHIND THIS FRONT...LIFTING MOST THE AREA TO VFR CIGS. MAY
BE SOME SPEED SHEAR JUST ABOVE THE GROUND...AS SOUTHERLIES
INCREASE FROM 10 TO 30 OR 40 KTS BELOW FL030. EXPECT MIX OF VFR
AND MVFR TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MAY KEEP CIGS MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND
06Z TO 09Z WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIE DOWN THIS
EVENING...BRINGING CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR AND SOME IFR TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THIS MORNING...THOUGH
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. SOUTHERLIES
INCREASE FROM 10 KTS AT THE SURFACE TO 30 OR 40 KTS BELOW FL030
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DECREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT AROUND 06Z TO
09Z THIS EVENING.

-MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 35 CURRENTLY...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SOLID GALES
WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE INNER WATERS
WITH A COASTAL JET. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

SEAS 10 TO 12 FT THIS MORNING WILL BUILD QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
NEAR 20 FT BY 4-6PM THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT...DROPPING TO 12 TO 14 FT BY MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS ABOVE 10 FT LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

-MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
    OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
    FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
    PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 211741
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
942 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. A FAIRLY STRONG AND MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY COASTAL WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE
THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY SATURDAY
WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT
SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE NW COAST TODAY...RIDING A ROBUST 160+ KT UPPER LEVEL
JET. A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE LEADING WARM FRONT IS MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST SO FAR...BUT WILL
PROCEED INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME TEMPS AROUND FREEZING IN
THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY...SO
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIP
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY ICING CONCERNS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP ALONG THE COAST AROUND
MIDDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM RAP AND HRRR MODEL
RUNS...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE EXISTING HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NORTH
AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST TO INCLUDE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AS
WELL. IT APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE LOW MIGHT BE TRACKING A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...WHICH MAY OPEN THE DOOR FOR AREAS
LIKE CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT TO PICK UP A FEW HIGH WIND CRITERIA GUSTS.
OVERALL...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MARGINAL WIND EVENT. SOME
BEACH AND EXPOSED HEADLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 60 TO
65 MPH...BUT THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND 4 TO 6 PM...AFTER WHICH THE COASTAL WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
RAPIDLY. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.

500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON SATURDAY. LIFTED
INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK VORT MAX THAT
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE INSTABILITY. SO HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AND INLAND TO
THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS
WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. PYLE/26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH BEHIND THIS FRONT...LIFTING MOST THE AREA TO VFR CIGS. MAY
BE SOME SPEED SHEAR JUST ABOVE THE GROUND...AS SOUTHERLIES
INCREASE FROM 10 TO 30 OR 40 KTS BELOW FL030. EXPECT MIX OF VFR
AND MVFR TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MAY KEEP CIGS MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND
06Z TO 09Z WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIE DOWN THIS
EVENING...BRINGING CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR AND SOME IFR TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THIS MORNING...THOUGH
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. SOUTHERLIES
INCREASE FROM 10 KTS AT THE SURFACE TO 30 OR 40 KTS BELOW FL030
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DECREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT AROUND 06Z TO
09Z THIS EVENING.

-MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 35 CURRENTLY...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SOLID GALES
WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE INNER WATERS
WITH A COASTAL JET. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

SEAS 10 TO 12 FT THIS MORNING WILL BUILD QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
NEAR 20 FT BY 4-6PM THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT...DROPPING TO 12 TO 14 FT BY MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS ABOVE 10 FT LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

-MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
    OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
    FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
    PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 211741
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
942 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. A FAIRLY STRONG AND MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY COASTAL WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE
THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY SATURDAY
WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT
SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE NW COAST TODAY...RIDING A ROBUST 160+ KT UPPER LEVEL
JET. A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE LEADING WARM FRONT IS MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST SO FAR...BUT WILL
PROCEED INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME TEMPS AROUND FREEZING IN
THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY...SO
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIP
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY ICING CONCERNS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP ALONG THE COAST AROUND
MIDDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM RAP AND HRRR MODEL
RUNS...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE EXISTING HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NORTH
AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST TO INCLUDE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AS
WELL. IT APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE LOW MIGHT BE TRACKING A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...WHICH MAY OPEN THE DOOR FOR AREAS
LIKE CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT TO PICK UP A FEW HIGH WIND CRITERIA GUSTS.
OVERALL...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MARGINAL WIND EVENT. SOME
BEACH AND EXPOSED HEADLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 60 TO
65 MPH...BUT THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND 4 TO 6 PM...AFTER WHICH THE COASTAL WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
RAPIDLY. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.

500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON SATURDAY. LIFTED
INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK VORT MAX THAT
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE INSTABILITY. SO HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AND INLAND TO
THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS
WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. PYLE/26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH BEHIND THIS FRONT...LIFTING MOST THE AREA TO VFR CIGS. MAY
BE SOME SPEED SHEAR JUST ABOVE THE GROUND...AS SOUTHERLIES
INCREASE FROM 10 TO 30 OR 40 KTS BELOW FL030. EXPECT MIX OF VFR
AND MVFR TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MAY KEEP CIGS MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND
06Z TO 09Z WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIE DOWN THIS
EVENING...BRINGING CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR AND SOME IFR TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THIS MORNING...THOUGH
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. SOUTHERLIES
INCREASE FROM 10 KTS AT THE SURFACE TO 30 OR 40 KTS BELOW FL030
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DECREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT AROUND 06Z TO
09Z THIS EVENING.

-MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 35 CURRENTLY...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SOLID GALES
WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE INNER WATERS
WITH A COASTAL JET. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

SEAS 10 TO 12 FT THIS MORNING WILL BUILD QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
NEAR 20 FT BY 4-6PM THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT...DROPPING TO 12 TO 14 FT BY MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS ABOVE 10 FT LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

-MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
    OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
    FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
    PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 211741
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
942 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. A FAIRLY STRONG AND MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY COASTAL WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE
THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY SATURDAY
WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT
SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A FAIRLY STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE NW COAST TODAY...RIDING A ROBUST 160+ KT UPPER LEVEL
JET. A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE LEADING WARM FRONT IS MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST SO FAR...BUT WILL
PROCEED INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME TEMPS AROUND FREEZING IN
THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY...SO
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIP
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY ICING CONCERNS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP ALONG THE COAST AROUND
MIDDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM RAP AND HRRR MODEL
RUNS...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE EXISTING HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NORTH
AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST TO INCLUDE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AS
WELL. IT APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE LOW MIGHT BE TRACKING A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...WHICH MAY OPEN THE DOOR FOR AREAS
LIKE CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT TO PICK UP A FEW HIGH WIND CRITERIA GUSTS.
OVERALL...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MARGINAL WIND EVENT. SOME
BEACH AND EXPOSED HEADLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 60 TO
65 MPH...BUT THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND 4 TO 6 PM...AFTER WHICH THE COASTAL WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
RAPIDLY. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.

500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON SATURDAY. LIFTED
INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK VORT MAX THAT
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE INSTABILITY. SO HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AND INLAND TO
THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS
WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. PYLE/26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTH BEHIND THIS FRONT...LIFTING MOST THE AREA TO VFR CIGS. MAY
BE SOME SPEED SHEAR JUST ABOVE THE GROUND...AS SOUTHERLIES
INCREASE FROM 10 TO 30 OR 40 KTS BELOW FL030. EXPECT MIX OF VFR
AND MVFR TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS MAY KEEP CIGS MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND
06Z TO 09Z WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIE DOWN THIS
EVENING...BRINGING CIGS BACK DOWN TO MVFR AND SOME IFR TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THIS MORNING...THOUGH
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. SOUTHERLIES
INCREASE FROM 10 KTS AT THE SURFACE TO 30 OR 40 KTS BELOW FL030
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DECREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT AROUND 06Z TO
09Z THIS EVENING.

-MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 35 CURRENTLY...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SOLID GALES
WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE INNER WATERS
WITH A COASTAL JET. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

SEAS 10 TO 12 FT THIS MORNING WILL BUILD QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
NEAR 20 FT BY 4-6PM THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE
FRONT...DROPPING TO 12 TO 14 FT BY MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS ABOVE 10 FT LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

-MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
    OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
    FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
    PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 211740 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
940 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...THE LATEST SFC OBS WERE CONTINUING TO SHOW AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE BASIN WHERE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER STORM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE PACNW AND
SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME COLD AIR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN TRAPPED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A MIX OF FROZEN PCPN THAT HAS PROMPTED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN PRODUCING WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW VFR
AT KDLS...KPDT...KYKM...KALW AND KPSC IN FOG THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER...BUT AS RAIN
MOVES INTO THE AREA EXPECT CONDITIONS TO ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS. KRDM AND KBDN COULD REMAIN VFR...BUT THEIR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY DROP AS WELL. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG
WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND HAZE. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AFTER 12Z SATURDAY
AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS.  82

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 319 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT HAS
ALLOWED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY THE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. DENSE FOG LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
HAS A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH IT. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY
OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR ALONG
THE WASHINGTON EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIMINISHING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BREAK THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS CLEARING OUT THE FOG AND STRATUS AND ENDING THE AIR
STAGNATION EVENT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. 94

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVE AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DIVERGE AFTERWARDS WITH
THE GFS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AND THE ECMWF MILDER WEATHER
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA TO THE EAST. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS ON
SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR MOSTLY RAIN AREAWIDE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN COULD RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTH ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS. IF THE GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT IT COULD TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MORE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SWWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW HAVE JUST SHOWED A COOLING TREND BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THAT THE GFS WOULD INDICATE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
EXPOSED RIDGES. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  42  37  45  36 /  30  90  50  30
ALW  41  37  46  39 /  30  90  50  40
PSC  39  36  48  38 /  30  90  30  10
YKM  36  29  45  32 /  70  90  30  10
HRI  40  36  46  37 /  30  90  40  20
ELN  35  29  45  32 /  80  90  30  10
RDM  44  37  44  26 /  70  90  50  40
LGD  41  38  41  33 /  20  90  70  50
GCD  43  33  40  31 /  30  90  70  40
DLS  37  35  45  38 /  80 100  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY
     ORZ041-044-050-505-507-508-510-511.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ049.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY WAZ024-026>029-521.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/82






000
FXUS65 KBOI 211705
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1005 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...STILL LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WE ARE
BEGINNING TO SEE EVIDENCE THAT INDICATES FREEZING RAIN MAY COVER A
SMALLER AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LARGELY DICTATE WHERE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. BOISE IS ALREADY UP TO 30 DEGREES...WITH ONTARIO UP TO
26 AS OF 10 AM MST. WILL LIKELY ISSUE NEW HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN AN UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING. MOUNTAIN FORECAST
APPEARS SOLID...LOTS OF SNOW COMING ABOVE AROUND 5000 FEET. FOR
THE BOISE METRO AREA...WE ARE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN FALLING ON ROADS THAT ARE STILL COVERED
BY PACKED ICE FROM LAST WEEK/S SNOW WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS FROM KBOI TO KONO
IMPROVING AFTER 19Z.  ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL BE ISOLATED WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 19Z.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SNOW WITH
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...BUT MAINLY RAIN WILL FALL BELOW
4000 FT MSL. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF
WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE.  SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...NEXT NORTH PACIFIC STORM WILL COME INTO OUR CWA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THIS STORM IS RELATIVELY STRONG AND WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 4000
FEET MSL AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE LOWER VALLEYS.  WARM FRONT
WILL COME IN THIS EVENING AND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE
SATURDAY.  THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO NEAR 5000 FEET MSL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.  SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AND ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER IN THE UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY...AND FREEZING RAIN
WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW IN THE COLDER PARTS OF THE UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE LATE AFTERNOON
COMMUTING PERIOD TODAY MAY BE SPARED THESE PROBLEMS AS THE PCPN
SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 6 PM MST.  MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 4 TO
8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO HAVE LOCAL FREEZING
RAIN BUT THE MAIN WEATHER IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SNOW. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE BEING POSTED FOR THE ZONES LISTED BELOW.
LATER SATURDAY THE STORM/S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING
ENOUGH WIND TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL TURN COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE THE VALLEYS
SHOULD GET WARM ENOUGH TO MELT SOME SNOW FROM LAST WEEK/S STORM.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RISE
ABOUT TEN DEGREES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN OTHER ZONES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN COLD MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE A
A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3000 FEET MSL. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST BEGINS TO BUILD. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM AND CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME INVERTED ESPECIALLY IF THE VALLEYS ARE SNOW-COVERED
FROM THE SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND WEDNESDAY
AS THERE IS NO CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE MODELS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     SATURDAY IDZ014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY IDZ011>013-028-029-033.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY ORZ064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ SATURDAY ORZ062-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 211705
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1005 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...STILL LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WE ARE
BEGINNING TO SEE EVIDENCE THAT INDICATES FREEZING RAIN MAY COVER A
SMALLER AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LARGELY DICTATE WHERE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. BOISE IS ALREADY UP TO 30 DEGREES...WITH ONTARIO UP TO
26 AS OF 10 AM MST. WILL LIKELY ISSUE NEW HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN AN UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING. MOUNTAIN FORECAST
APPEARS SOLID...LOTS OF SNOW COMING ABOVE AROUND 5000 FEET. FOR
THE BOISE METRO AREA...WE ARE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN FALLING ON ROADS THAT ARE STILL COVERED
BY PACKED ICE FROM LAST WEEK/S SNOW WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS FROM KBOI TO KONO
IMPROVING AFTER 19Z.  ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL BE ISOLATED WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 19Z.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SNOW WITH
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...BUT MAINLY RAIN WILL FALL BELOW
4000 FT MSL. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF
WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE.  SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...NEXT NORTH PACIFIC STORM WILL COME INTO OUR CWA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THIS STORM IS RELATIVELY STRONG AND WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 4000
FEET MSL AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE LOWER VALLEYS.  WARM FRONT
WILL COME IN THIS EVENING AND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE
SATURDAY.  THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO NEAR 5000 FEET MSL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.  SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AND ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER IN THE UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY...AND FREEZING RAIN
WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW IN THE COLDER PARTS OF THE UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE LATE AFTERNOON
COMMUTING PERIOD TODAY MAY BE SPARED THESE PROBLEMS AS THE PCPN
SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 6 PM MST.  MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 4 TO
8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO HAVE LOCAL FREEZING
RAIN BUT THE MAIN WEATHER IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SNOW. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE BEING POSTED FOR THE ZONES LISTED BELOW.
LATER SATURDAY THE STORM/S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING
ENOUGH WIND TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL TURN COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE THE VALLEYS
SHOULD GET WARM ENOUGH TO MELT SOME SNOW FROM LAST WEEK/S STORM.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RISE
ABOUT TEN DEGREES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN OTHER ZONES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN COLD MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE A
A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3000 FEET MSL. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST BEGINS TO BUILD. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM AND CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME INVERTED ESPECIALLY IF THE VALLEYS ARE SNOW-COVERED
FROM THE SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND WEDNESDAY
AS THERE IS NO CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE MODELS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     SATURDAY IDZ014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY IDZ011>013-028-029-033.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY ORZ064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ SATURDAY ORZ062-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS66 KMFR 211702
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM IS TAKING AIM RIGHT AT US
THIS MORNING AND PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY REACHED THE COAST. SO
FAR IT`S BEEN LIGHT, BUT IT WILL INCREASE OVER TIME WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO WINDS ARE ALREADY RAMPING UP OVER THE MARINE
WATERS AND COAST. PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND QPF TODAY. BASICALLY I ADJUSTED THEM
UP WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT POPS, QPF, WINDS AND SNOW LEVELS FOR TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE
INCOMING STORM. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAF CYCLE...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ALREADY HELPING TO CREATE LIFR CONDITIONS IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS AROUND ROSEBURG AND MFR...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. IN OTHER VALLEYS THERE IS A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS WELL AS AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST.

A STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TODAY WITH VERY STRONG WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN AROUND ROSEBURG. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE...SURFACE WINDS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY IFR OR MVFR THROUGH
THE DAY IN LOW CLOUDS. WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

EAST OF THE CASCADES...VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN IFR AND MVFR REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS PRECIPITATION INCREASE OVER THE AREA. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014...A STRONG FRONT MOVING
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCER. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG SOUTH WINDS MAY BE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WIND SPEEDS REACHING STORM
FORCE FOR WATERS WITHIN 25 NM OF THE COAST FROM GOLD BEACH NORTH
AND GALES LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VERY STEEP SEAS BUILDING TO 20 TO 24
FT ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN
THE AREA WHERE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH 16 TO 20 FT
SEAS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS
WILL OCCUR AT LOW TIDE...SO ONLY LIMITED COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE AREA NEAR PORT ORFORD.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DECREASE. MODERATE WESTERLY SWELL
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SATURDAY...SO SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS
FOR A WHILE LONGER. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW ALTERATIONS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT`S INCOMING STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM. THESE WERE
PRIMARILY TO ADD A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADE
MOUNTAINS IN THE 4 PM PST TODAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY MORNING TIME
PERIOD.

THE NOSE OF A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM THAT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY WEST
TO THE EAST ASIAN COAST WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TODAY.
BY SATURDAY MORNING 300MB WINDS WILL BE AROUND 150 KNOTS OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS VERY NOTABLE THAT STRONG WEST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS EXTEND DOWN TO BELOW THE 700MB LEVEL
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IN FACT, THE NAM12
INDICATES WEST FLOW PEAKING AROUND 70 KNOTS OVER THE CASCADES AT
THE 10KFT LEVEL TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
OROGRAPHIC LIFT THAT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION RATES OF
1 TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES IN A 6 HOUR TIME PERIOD THERE. MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR ROSEBURG INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE 12
HOUR PERIOD FROM 4PM TODAY TO 4AM SATURDAY MORNING. ON THE LOW
END, FOR THE SAME PERIOD, MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE EUROPEAN, GFS, AND
NAM12 MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED 0.75" TO 1.25" OF RAIN
EVEN FOR MEDFORD DURING THE LAST 3 DAYS. THE TREND IN THIS CLIMATOLOGY
BASED MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UPWARD OVERNIGHT, AS WELL. SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT WEST SIDE PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS 12 HOUR TIME PERIOD, WITH ENHANCED DOWNSLOPING EAST OF THE
CASCADES. UNFORTUNATELY, FOR SNOW PACK, SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 7KFT FOR THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT, ONLY COMING
DOWN ON SATURDAY MORNING AFTER THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION BAND HAS
PASSED. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A CHANGE OVER AT OR ABOVE
6-7KFT AT THE END OF THE FRONTAL BAND PRECIPITATION, THOUGH.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG DYNAMICS IN TERMS OF WIND AND
OROGRAPHIC COMBINE WITH A CONVECTIVE ASPECT TO THE PRECIPITATION
AS IT COMES IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TOTAL TOTALS EXCEED 52
AND LIFTED INDICES ARE BELOW ZERO AS THE BULK OF THE IMPRESSIVE
DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM REDDING TO MEDFORD PEAKS AT ABOUT 8MB
BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z THIS EVENING. THIS IS USUALLY SUPPORTIVE OF AT
LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. WHILE 700MB WIND
DIRECTION IS PRIMARY WEST TO SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS NOT IDEAL FOR
STRONG WINDS, THE LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. SUSPECT THAT THE HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT WILL SEND THE BULK OF THIS WIND EASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES
SISKIYOU SUMMIT SENDING IT TOWARD KLAMATH FALLS AND THE EAST
SIDE VERSUS THE ROGUE VALLEY. STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS PRIOR
TO THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEY, BUT SUSPECT IT WILL
BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE 40MPH GUSTS OBSERVED THERE JUST A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OROGRAPHICS AND SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN
THE STRONG JET STREAM FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN APPRECIABLE SNOW
SHOWERS DOWN TO 4KFT ELEVATIONS, MOST NOTABLE IN THE CASCADES.
THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, BUT WILL BE FACTOR
FOR THOSE TRAVELING OVER THE PASSES. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022-615-618.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-615-619.
     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ085-285.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR CAZ080-081-280-281.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 211702
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM IS TAKING AIM RIGHT AT US
THIS MORNING AND PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY REACHED THE COAST. SO
FAR IT`S BEEN LIGHT, BUT IT WILL INCREASE OVER TIME WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO WINDS ARE ALREADY RAMPING UP OVER THE MARINE
WATERS AND COAST. PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND QPF TODAY. BASICALLY I ADJUSTED THEM
UP WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT POPS, QPF, WINDS AND SNOW LEVELS FOR TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE
INCOMING STORM. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAF CYCLE...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ALREADY HELPING TO CREATE LIFR CONDITIONS IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS AROUND ROSEBURG AND MFR...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. IN OTHER VALLEYS THERE IS A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS WELL AS AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST.

A STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TODAY WITH VERY STRONG WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN AROUND ROSEBURG. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE...SURFACE WINDS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY IFR OR MVFR THROUGH
THE DAY IN LOW CLOUDS. WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

EAST OF THE CASCADES...VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN IFR AND MVFR REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS PRECIPITATION INCREASE OVER THE AREA. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014...A STRONG FRONT MOVING
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCER. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG SOUTH WINDS MAY BE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WIND SPEEDS REACHING STORM
FORCE FOR WATERS WITHIN 25 NM OF THE COAST FROM GOLD BEACH NORTH
AND GALES LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VERY STEEP SEAS BUILDING TO 20 TO 24
FT ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN
THE AREA WHERE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH 16 TO 20 FT
SEAS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS
WILL OCCUR AT LOW TIDE...SO ONLY LIMITED COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE AREA NEAR PORT ORFORD.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DECREASE. MODERATE WESTERLY SWELL
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SATURDAY...SO SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS
FOR A WHILE LONGER. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW ALTERATIONS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT`S INCOMING STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM. THESE WERE
PRIMARILY TO ADD A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADE
MOUNTAINS IN THE 4 PM PST TODAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY MORNING TIME
PERIOD.

THE NOSE OF A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM THAT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY WEST
TO THE EAST ASIAN COAST WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TODAY.
BY SATURDAY MORNING 300MB WINDS WILL BE AROUND 150 KNOTS OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS VERY NOTABLE THAT STRONG WEST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS EXTEND DOWN TO BELOW THE 700MB LEVEL
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IN FACT, THE NAM12
INDICATES WEST FLOW PEAKING AROUND 70 KNOTS OVER THE CASCADES AT
THE 10KFT LEVEL TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
OROGRAPHIC LIFT THAT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION RATES OF
1 TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES IN A 6 HOUR TIME PERIOD THERE. MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR ROSEBURG INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE 12
HOUR PERIOD FROM 4PM TODAY TO 4AM SATURDAY MORNING. ON THE LOW
END, FOR THE SAME PERIOD, MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE EUROPEAN, GFS, AND
NAM12 MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED 0.75" TO 1.25" OF RAIN
EVEN FOR MEDFORD DURING THE LAST 3 DAYS. THE TREND IN THIS CLIMATOLOGY
BASED MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UPWARD OVERNIGHT, AS WELL. SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT WEST SIDE PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS 12 HOUR TIME PERIOD, WITH ENHANCED DOWNSLOPING EAST OF THE
CASCADES. UNFORTUNATELY, FOR SNOW PACK, SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 7KFT FOR THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT, ONLY COMING
DOWN ON SATURDAY MORNING AFTER THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION BAND HAS
PASSED. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A CHANGE OVER AT OR ABOVE
6-7KFT AT THE END OF THE FRONTAL BAND PRECIPITATION, THOUGH.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG DYNAMICS IN TERMS OF WIND AND
OROGRAPHIC COMBINE WITH A CONVECTIVE ASPECT TO THE PRECIPITATION
AS IT COMES IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TOTAL TOTALS EXCEED 52
AND LIFTED INDICES ARE BELOW ZERO AS THE BULK OF THE IMPRESSIVE
DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM REDDING TO MEDFORD PEAKS AT ABOUT 8MB
BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z THIS EVENING. THIS IS USUALLY SUPPORTIVE OF AT
LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. WHILE 700MB WIND
DIRECTION IS PRIMARY WEST TO SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS NOT IDEAL FOR
STRONG WINDS, THE LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. SUSPECT THAT THE HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT WILL SEND THE BULK OF THIS WIND EASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES
SISKIYOU SUMMIT SENDING IT TOWARD KLAMATH FALLS AND THE EAST
SIDE VERSUS THE ROGUE VALLEY. STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS PRIOR
TO THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEY, BUT SUSPECT IT WILL
BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE 40MPH GUSTS OBSERVED THERE JUST A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OROGRAPHICS AND SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN
THE STRONG JET STREAM FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN APPRECIABLE SNOW
SHOWERS DOWN TO 4KFT ELEVATIONS, MOST NOTABLE IN THE CASCADES.
THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, BUT WILL BE FACTOR
FOR THOSE TRAVELING OVER THE PASSES. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022-615-618.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-615-619.
     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ085-285.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR CAZ080-081-280-281.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KPDT 211651 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
850 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST SFC OBS WERE CONTINUING TO SHOW AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE BASIN WHERE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER STORM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE PACNW AND
SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME COLD AIR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN TRAPPED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A MIX OF FROZEN PCPN THAT HAS PROMPTED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN PRODUCING WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 319 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT HAS
ALLOWED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY THE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. DENSE FOG LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
HAS A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH IT. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY
OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR ALONG
THE WASHINGTON EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIMINISHING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BREAK THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS CLEARING OUT THE FOG AND STRATUS AND ENDING THE AIR
STAGNATION EVENT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. 94

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVE AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DIVERGE AFTERWARDS WITH
THE GFS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AND THE ECMWF MILDER WEATHER
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA TO THE EAST. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS ON
SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR MOSTLY RAIN AREAWIDE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN COULD RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTH ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS. IF THE GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT IT COULD TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MORE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SWWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW HAVE JUST SHOWED A COOLING TREND BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THAT THE GFS WOULD INDICATE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
EXPOSED RIDGES. 78

AVIATION DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...LIFR CONDITIONS IN FZFG WILL
CONTINUE AT KPDT AND KALW THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE EXPECT MORNING MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS AT KDLS...KYKM AND KPSC IN BR AND STRATUS. ANY
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN AFTER
18Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO 2-5
MILES IN RAIN AREAWIDE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG
WITH BR. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A CONCERN UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD
BUT WILL BE SLY AT 15G30KT AT KBDN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  42  37  45  36 /  30  90  50  30
ALW  41  37  46  39 /  30  90  50  40
PSC  39  36  48  38 /  30  90  30  10
YKM  36  29  45  32 /  70  90  30  10
HRI  40  36  46  37 /  30  90  40  20
ELN  35  29  45  32 /  80  90  30  10
RDM  44  37  44  26 /  70  90  50  40
LGD  41  38  41  33 /  20  90  70  50
GCD  43  33  40  31 /  30  90  70  40
DLS  37  35  45  38 /  80 100  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY
     ORZ041-044-050-505-507-508-510-511.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ049.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY WAZ024-026>029-521.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/76









000
FXUS66 KPDT 211651 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
850 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...THE LATEST SFC OBS WERE CONTINUING TO SHOW AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE BASIN WHERE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER STORM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE PACNW AND
SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME COLD AIR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN TRAPPED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A MIX OF FROZEN PCPN THAT HAS PROMPTED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN PRODUCING WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 319 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT HAS
ALLOWED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY THE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. DENSE FOG LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
HAS A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH IT. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY
OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR ALONG
THE WASHINGTON EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIMINISHING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BREAK THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS CLEARING OUT THE FOG AND STRATUS AND ENDING THE AIR
STAGNATION EVENT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. 94

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVE AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DIVERGE AFTERWARDS WITH
THE GFS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AND THE ECMWF MILDER WEATHER
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA TO THE EAST. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS ON
SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR MOSTLY RAIN AREAWIDE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN COULD RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTH ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS. IF THE GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT IT COULD TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MORE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SWWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW HAVE JUST SHOWED A COOLING TREND BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THAT THE GFS WOULD INDICATE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
EXPOSED RIDGES. 78

AVIATION DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...LIFR CONDITIONS IN FZFG WILL
CONTINUE AT KPDT AND KALW THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE EXPECT MORNING MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS AT KDLS...KYKM AND KPSC IN BR AND STRATUS. ANY
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN AFTER
18Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO 2-5
MILES IN RAIN AREAWIDE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG
WITH BR. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A CONCERN UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD
BUT WILL BE SLY AT 15G30KT AT KBDN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  42  37  45  36 /  30  90  50  30
ALW  41  37  46  39 /  30  90  50  40
PSC  39  36  48  38 /  30  90  30  10
YKM  36  29  45  32 /  70  90  30  10
HRI  40  36  46  37 /  30  90  40  20
ELN  35  29  45  32 /  80  90  30  10
RDM  44  37  44  26 /  70  90  50  40
LGD  41  38  41  33 /  20  90  70  50
GCD  43  33  40  31 /  30  90  70  40
DLS  37  35  45  38 /  80 100  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY
     ORZ041-044-050-505-507-508-510-511.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ049.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY WAZ024-026>029-521.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ520.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/76








000
FXUS66 KMFR 211228
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
428 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW ALTERATIONS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT`S INCOMING STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM. THESE WERE
PRIMARILY TO ADD A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADE
MOUNTAINS IN THE 4 PM PST TODAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY MORNING TIME
PERIOD.

THE NOSE OF A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM THAT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY WEST
TO THE EAST ASIAN COAST WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TODAY.
BY SATURDAY MORNING 300MB WINDS WILL BE AROUND 150 KNOTS OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS VERY NOTABLE THAT STRONG WEST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS EXTEND DOWN TO BELOW THE 700MB LEVEL
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IN FACT, THE NAM12
INDICATES WEST FLOW PEAKING AROUND 70 KNOTS OVER THE CASCADES AT
THE 10KFT LEVEL TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
OROGRAPHIC LIFT THAT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION RATES OF
1 TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES IN A 6 HOUR TIME PERIOD THERE. MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR ROSEBURG INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE 12
HOUR PERIOD FROM 4PM TODAY TO 4AM SATURDAY MORNING. ON THE LOW
END, FOR THE SAME PERIOD, MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE EUROPEAN, GFS, AND
NAM12 MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED 0.75" TO 1.25" OF RAIN
EVEN FOR MEDFORD DURING THE LAST 3 DAYS. THE TREND IN THIS CLIMATOLOGY
BASED MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UPWARD OVERNIGHT, AS WELL. SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT WEST SIDE PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS 12 HOUR TIME PERIOD, WITH ENHANCED DOWNSLOPING EAST OF THE
CASCADES. UNFORTUNATELY, FOR SNOW PACK, SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 7KFT FOR THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT, ONLY COMING
DOWN ON SATURDAY MORNING AFTER THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION BAND HAS
PASSED. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A CHANGE OVER AT OR ABOVE
6-7KFT AT THE END OF THE FRONTAL BAND PRECIPITATION, THOUGH.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG DYNAMICS IN TERMS OF WIND AND
OROGRAPHIC COMBINE WITH A CONVECTIVE ASPECT TO THE PRECIPITATION
AS IT COMES IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TOTAL TOTALS EXCEED 52
AND LIFTED INDICES ARE BELOW ZERO AS THE BULK OF THE IMPRESSIVE
DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM REDDING TO MEDFORD PEAKS AT ABOUT 8MB
BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z THIS EVENING. THIS IS USUALLY SUPPORTIVE OF AT
LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. WHILE 700MB WIND
DIRECTION IS PRIMARY WEST TO SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS NOT IDEAL FOR
STRONG WINDS, THE LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. SUSPECT THAT THE HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT WILL SEND THE BULK OF THIS WIND EASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES
SISKIYOU SUMMIT SENDING IT TOWARD KLAMATH FALLS AND THE EAST
SIDE VERSUS THE ROGUE VALLEY. STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS PRIOR
TO THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEY, BUT SUSPECT IT WILL
BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE 40MPH GUSTS OBSERVED THERE JUST A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OROGRAPHICS AND SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN
THE STRONG JET STREAM FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN APPRECIABLE SNOW
SHOWERS DOWN TO 4KFT ELEVATIONS, MOST NOTABLE IN THE CASCADES.
THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, BUT WILL BE FACTOR
FOR THOSE TRAVELING OVER THE PASSES.

I HAVE ATTACHED PERTINENT SECTIONS OF DISCUSSIONS FROM THE LAST
DAY, BELOW. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/06Z TAF CYCLE...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ALREADY HELPING TO CREATE LIFR CONDITIONS IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS AROUND ROSEBURG...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. OTHER VALLEYS WILL DETERIORATE TO A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

A STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY AND WITH VERY STRONG
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN AROUND ROSEBURG. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE...SURFACE WINDS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY IFR OR MVFR THROUGH
THE DAY IN LOW CLOUDS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VERY STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT REMAIN A PERIOD OF HIGH
CONCERN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONG FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATERS FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM
FORCE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND SEAS WILL BECOME
HAZARDOUS...BUILDING TO 20 TO 24 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL OCCUR AT LOW
TIDE...SO LITTLE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND DECREASE. MODERATE WESTERLY SWELL WILL MOVE IN
SATURDAY...SO SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR A WHILE LONGER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN EXITING TROUGH IS PROVIDING ENOUGH ENERGY FOR A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES AND THE EAST SIDE THIS EVENING...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE THIS EVENING AND SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END IN MOST PLACES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL THIS
EVENING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT FOG IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. MORNING COMMUTES WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY POOR
VISIBILITY IN THE MORNING IN PLACES LIKE ROSEBURG AND MEDFORD.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A DEVELOPING STRONG STORM SYSTEM IN THE
PACIFIC. THIS STORM HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AS SATELLITE-
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW SWATH OF 1.75
INCHES.  ADDITIONALLY...A STRONG JET OF 145KT AT 300MB PER LATEST
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS...ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. ALL OF
THIS MEANS A WET AND WINDY SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS
OCCURRING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE A HOST OF PRODUCTS
OUT THAT HIGHLIGHT THE WEATHER HAZARDS...INCLUDING A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOCUSING ON PORT ORFORD AND HIGH SURF WARNING FOR THE
COAST AT CFWMFR...HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND EAST SIDE
AT NPWMFR...AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOME ACCUMULATING
MOUNTAIN SNOWS AT SPSMFR.

LONG TERM FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLES THAT THE LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL SET UP ALONG THE
WEST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
RMOP GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A RIDGE SETTING UP
NEAR OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER,
MODELS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AND
THEREFORE PRESENT QUITE A CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IT FOLLOWS THAT THERE IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ON MONDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND THIS
WILL KEEP SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CASCADES WESTWARD. AFTER THAT, THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A PACIFIC
TROUGH DEVELOPING OUT NEAR 150 AND 160W. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS40
AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BUILD THE RIDGE STRONGLY WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN A DRYING TREND WITH RELATIVELY MILD FALL WEATHER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND ITS
ENSEMBLES KEEP MORE OF A FLATTER, DIRTY RIDGE WITH DISTURBANCES
RIDING OVER THE TOP. THIS WOULD KEEP AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WESTWARD (AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE OR/CA BORDER) SHOWERY AND COOLER.
WE HAVEN`T MADE LARGE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...AND FELT CONTINUITY WAS BEST UNTIL WE SEE MEANINGFUL
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING, WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING ANY LARGE, IMPACTING SYSTEMS TO COME THROUGH DURING
THIS TIME. -SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022-615-618.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST
     SATURDAY FOR ORZ021-615-619.
     HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ085-285.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR CAZ080-081-280-281.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST
  SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
  MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/CC/NSK/BPN/MAS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 211228
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
428 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW ALTERATIONS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT`S INCOMING STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM. THESE WERE
PRIMARILY TO ADD A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADE
MOUNTAINS IN THE 4 PM PST TODAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY MORNING TIME
PERIOD.

THE NOSE OF A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM THAT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY WEST
TO THE EAST ASIAN COAST WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TODAY.
BY SATURDAY MORNING 300MB WINDS WILL BE AROUND 150 KNOTS OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS VERY NOTABLE THAT STRONG WEST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS EXTEND DOWN TO BELOW THE 700MB LEVEL
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IN FACT, THE NAM12
INDICATES WEST FLOW PEAKING AROUND 70 KNOTS OVER THE CASCADES AT
THE 10KFT LEVEL TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
OROGRAPHIC LIFT THAT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION RATES OF
1 TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES IN A 6 HOUR TIME PERIOD THERE. MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR ROSEBURG INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE 12
HOUR PERIOD FROM 4PM TODAY TO 4AM SATURDAY MORNING. ON THE LOW
END, FOR THE SAME PERIOD, MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE EUROPEAN, GFS, AND
NAM12 MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED 0.75" TO 1.25" OF RAIN
EVEN FOR MEDFORD DURING THE LAST 3 DAYS. THE TREND IN THIS CLIMATOLOGY
BASED MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UPWARD OVERNIGHT, AS WELL. SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT WEST SIDE PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS 12 HOUR TIME PERIOD, WITH ENHANCED DOWNSLOPING EAST OF THE
CASCADES. UNFORTUNATELY, FOR SNOW PACK, SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 7KFT FOR THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT, ONLY COMING
DOWN ON SATURDAY MORNING AFTER THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION BAND HAS
PASSED. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A CHANGE OVER AT OR ABOVE
6-7KFT AT THE END OF THE FRONTAL BAND PRECIPITATION, THOUGH.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG DYNAMICS IN TERMS OF WIND AND
OROGRAPHIC COMBINE WITH A CONVECTIVE ASPECT TO THE PRECIPITATION
AS IT COMES IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TOTAL TOTALS EXCEED 52
AND LIFTED INDICES ARE BELOW ZERO AS THE BULK OF THE IMPRESSIVE
DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM REDDING TO MEDFORD PEAKS AT ABOUT 8MB
BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z THIS EVENING. THIS IS USUALLY SUPPORTIVE OF AT
LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. WHILE 700MB WIND
DIRECTION IS PRIMARY WEST TO SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS NOT IDEAL FOR
STRONG WINDS, THE LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. SUSPECT THAT THE HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT WILL SEND THE BULK OF THIS WIND EASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES
SISKIYOU SUMMIT SENDING IT TOWARD KLAMATH FALLS AND THE EAST
SIDE VERSUS THE ROGUE VALLEY. STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS PRIOR
TO THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEY, BUT SUSPECT IT WILL
BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE 40MPH GUSTS OBSERVED THERE JUST A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OROGRAPHICS AND SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN
THE STRONG JET STREAM FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN APPRECIABLE SNOW
SHOWERS DOWN TO 4KFT ELEVATIONS, MOST NOTABLE IN THE CASCADES.
THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, BUT WILL BE FACTOR
FOR THOSE TRAVELING OVER THE PASSES.

I HAVE ATTACHED PERTINENT SECTIONS OF DISCUSSIONS FROM THE LAST
DAY, BELOW. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/06Z TAF CYCLE...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ALREADY HELPING TO CREATE LIFR CONDITIONS IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS AROUND ROSEBURG...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. OTHER VALLEYS WILL DETERIORATE TO A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

A STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY AND WITH VERY STRONG
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN AROUND ROSEBURG. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE...SURFACE WINDS IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY IFR OR MVFR THROUGH
THE DAY IN LOW CLOUDS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VERY STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT REMAIN A PERIOD OF HIGH
CONCERN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONG FRONT
APPROACHING THE WATERS FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM
FORCE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND SEAS WILL BECOME
HAZARDOUS...BUILDING TO 20 TO 24 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL OCCUR AT LOW
TIDE...SO LITTLE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND DECREASE. MODERATE WESTERLY SWELL WILL MOVE IN
SATURDAY...SO SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR A WHILE LONGER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN EXITING TROUGH IS PROVIDING ENOUGH ENERGY FOR A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES AND THE EAST SIDE THIS EVENING...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE THIS EVENING AND SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END IN MOST PLACES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL THIS
EVENING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT FOG IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. MORNING COMMUTES WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY POOR
VISIBILITY IN THE MORNING IN PLACES LIKE ROSEBURG AND MEDFORD.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A DEVELOPING STRONG STORM SYSTEM IN THE
PACIFIC. THIS STORM HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AS SATELLITE-
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW SWATH OF 1.75
INCHES.  ADDITIONALLY...A STRONG JET OF 145KT AT 300MB PER LATEST
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS...ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. ALL OF
THIS MEANS A WET AND WINDY SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS
OCCURRING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE A HOST OF PRODUCTS
OUT THAT HIGHLIGHT THE WEATHER HAZARDS...INCLUDING A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOCUSING ON PORT ORFORD AND HIGH SURF WARNING FOR THE
COAST AT CFWMFR...HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND EAST SIDE
AT NPWMFR...AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOME ACCUMULATING
MOUNTAIN SNOWS AT SPSMFR.

LONG TERM FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLES THAT THE LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL SET UP ALONG THE
WEST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
RMOP GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A RIDGE SETTING UP
NEAR OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER,
MODELS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AND
THEREFORE PRESENT QUITE A CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. IT FOLLOWS THAT THERE IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ON MONDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND THIS
WILL KEEP SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CASCADES WESTWARD. AFTER THAT, THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A PACIFIC
TROUGH DEVELOPING OUT NEAR 150 AND 160W. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS40
AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BUILD THE RIDGE STRONGLY WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN A DRYING TREND WITH RELATIVELY MILD FALL WEATHER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND ITS
ENSEMBLES KEEP MORE OF A FLATTER, DIRTY RIDGE WITH DISTURBANCES
RIDING OVER THE TOP. THIS WOULD KEEP AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WESTWARD (AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE OR/CA BORDER) SHOWERY AND COOLER.
WE HAVEN`T MADE LARGE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...AND FELT CONTINUITY WAS BEST UNTIL WE SEE MEANINGFUL
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING, WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING ANY LARGE, IMPACTING SYSTEMS TO COME THROUGH DURING
THIS TIME. -SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022-615-618.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST
     SATURDAY FOR ORZ021-615-619.
     HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ085-285.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR CAZ080-081-280-281.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST
  SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
  MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/CC/NSK/BPN/MAS




000
FXUS66 KPQR 211127
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
323 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

CORRECTED WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION.

.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORE MILD FALL WEATHER ON THE WAY. THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM ARRIVES TODAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE
NORTH PACIFIC 150 KT JETSTREAM. THE WARM FRONT PORTION WILL REACH
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT.
WIND...COASTAL WINDS LOOK MARGINAL FOR HIGH WINDS BUT BELIEVE THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 60
MPH AT THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.  PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 850 MB AND 950 MB WINDS ALIGN ALONG THE COAST
JUST AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE...A SHORT
WINDOW.   THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW ON THE FRONT MORE THAN NAM AND
GFS...BUT PLACES IT CLOSER THE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.INLAND
VALLEYS WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY...THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS HAS NOT COOLED VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT.  MOST TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING A DEGREE OR TWO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIVER. TIMING OF THE PCPN AND
EXPECTED WARMING WILL LIKELY LIMIT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.  ACCUMULATIONS AND
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THIS WEEK.

SNOW...SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.

RAIN AMOUNTS...A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.

CONVECTION...500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON
SATURDAY. LIFTED INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
VORT MAX THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE
INSTABILITY. SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS AND INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED AS WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

ALSO FOR THIS MORNING AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BUT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AS SO WILL
END THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  /26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COAST...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE
INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN BETWEEN 16-18Z TODAY. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WHERE IFR AND LIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...POSSIBLY LIFTING TO LOW END MVFR AFTER 21Z TODAY WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING RAIN DROPS CONDITIONS TO MVFR BY 18Z
THROUGH TONIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AT KPDX AND ERN APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH E TO SE SURFACE AND 30-40 KT S-SW WIND AT FL 020
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BY 18Z TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS FROM
21Z FRI-03Z SAT OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS. 06Z MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON WIND SPEEDS SO HAVE REPLACED THE STORM WATCH
WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS 10 NM FROM THE SHORELINE. STILL
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COASTAL
JET SITUATION. WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND WILL
REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

SEAS AT 10 FT WILL CONTINUE EARLY TODAY...BEFORE QUICKLY BUILDING
BY NOON TODAY WITH THE STRONG GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS. COULD
GET CLOSE TO 20 FEET LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
WITH A LARGE WIND- WAVE COMPONENT. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AS WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SEAS
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON PST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN FROM NOON TODAY TO
     10 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 211127
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
323 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

CORRECTED WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION.

.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORE MILD FALL WEATHER ON THE WAY. THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM ARRIVES TODAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE
NORTH PACIFIC 150 KT JETSTREAM. THE WARM FRONT PORTION WILL REACH
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT.
WIND...COASTAL WINDS LOOK MARGINAL FOR HIGH WINDS BUT BELIEVE THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 60
MPH AT THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.  PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 850 MB AND 950 MB WINDS ALIGN ALONG THE COAST
JUST AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE...A SHORT
WINDOW.   THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW ON THE FRONT MORE THAN NAM AND
GFS...BUT PLACES IT CLOSER THE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.INLAND
VALLEYS WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY...THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS HAS NOT COOLED VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT.  MOST TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING A DEGREE OR TWO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIVER. TIMING OF THE PCPN AND
EXPECTED WARMING WILL LIKELY LIMIT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.  ACCUMULATIONS AND
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THIS WEEK.

SNOW...SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.

RAIN AMOUNTS...A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.

CONVECTION...500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON
SATURDAY. LIFTED INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
VORT MAX THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE
INSTABILITY. SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS AND INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED AS WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

ALSO FOR THIS MORNING AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BUT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AS SO WILL
END THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  /26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COAST...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE
INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN BETWEEN 16-18Z TODAY. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WHERE IFR AND LIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...POSSIBLY LIFTING TO LOW END MVFR AFTER 21Z TODAY WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING RAIN DROPS CONDITIONS TO MVFR BY 18Z
THROUGH TONIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AT KPDX AND ERN APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH E TO SE SURFACE AND 30-40 KT S-SW WIND AT FL 020
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BY 18Z TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS FROM
21Z FRI-03Z SAT OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS. 06Z MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON WIND SPEEDS SO HAVE REPLACED THE STORM WATCH
WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS 10 NM FROM THE SHORELINE. STILL
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COASTAL
JET SITUATION. WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND WILL
REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

SEAS AT 10 FT WILL CONTINUE EARLY TODAY...BEFORE QUICKLY BUILDING
BY NOON TODAY WITH THE STRONG GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS. COULD
GET CLOSE TO 20 FEET LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
WITH A LARGE WIND- WAVE COMPONENT. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AS WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SEAS
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON PST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN FROM NOON TODAY TO
     10 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 211127
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
323 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

CORRECTED WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION.

.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORE MILD FALL WEATHER ON THE WAY. THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM ARRIVES TODAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE
NORTH PACIFIC 150 KT JETSTREAM. THE WARM FRONT PORTION WILL REACH
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT.
WIND...COASTAL WINDS LOOK MARGINAL FOR HIGH WINDS BUT BELIEVE THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 60
MPH AT THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.  PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 850 MB AND 950 MB WINDS ALIGN ALONG THE COAST
JUST AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE...A SHORT
WINDOW.   THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW ON THE FRONT MORE THAN NAM AND
GFS...BUT PLACES IT CLOSER THE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.INLAND
VALLEYS WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY...THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS HAS NOT COOLED VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT.  MOST TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING A DEGREE OR TWO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIVER. TIMING OF THE PCPN AND
EXPECTED WARMING WILL LIKELY LIMIT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.  ACCUMULATIONS AND
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THIS WEEK.

SNOW...SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.

RAIN AMOUNTS...A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.

CONVECTION...500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON
SATURDAY. LIFTED INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
VORT MAX THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE
INSTABILITY. SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS AND INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED AS WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

ALSO FOR THIS MORNING AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BUT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AS SO WILL
END THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  /26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COAST...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE
INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN BETWEEN 16-18Z TODAY. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WHERE IFR AND LIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...POSSIBLY LIFTING TO LOW END MVFR AFTER 21Z TODAY WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING RAIN DROPS CONDITIONS TO MVFR BY 18Z
THROUGH TONIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AT KPDX AND ERN APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH E TO SE SURFACE AND 30-40 KT S-SW WIND AT FL 020
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BY 18Z TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS FROM
21Z FRI-03Z SAT OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS. 06Z MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON WIND SPEEDS SO HAVE REPLACED THE STORM WATCH
WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS 10 NM FROM THE SHORELINE. STILL
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COASTAL
JET SITUATION. WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND WILL
REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

SEAS AT 10 FT WILL CONTINUE EARLY TODAY...BEFORE QUICKLY BUILDING
BY NOON TODAY WITH THE STRONG GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS. COULD
GET CLOSE TO 20 FEET LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
WITH A LARGE WIND- WAVE COMPONENT. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AS WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SEAS
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON PST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN FROM NOON TODAY TO
     10 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 211119 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
319 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT HAS
ALLOWED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY THE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. DENSE FOG LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
HAS A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH IT. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY
OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR ALONG
THE WASHINGTON EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIMINISHING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BREAK THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS CLEARING OUT THE FOG AND STRATUS AND ENDING THE AIR
STAGNATION EVENT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. 94

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVE AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DIVERGE AFTERWARDS WITH
THE GFS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AND THE ECMWF MILDER WEATHER
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA TO THE EAST. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS ON
SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR MOSTLY RAIN AREAWIDE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN COULD RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTH ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS. IF THE GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT IT COULD TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MORE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SWWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW HAVE JUST SHOWED A COOLING TREND BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THAT THE GFS WOULD INDICATE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
EXPOSED RIDGES. 78

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...LIFR CONDITIONS IN FZFG WILL
CONTINUE AT KPDT AND KALW THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE EXPECT MORNING MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS AT KDLS...KYKM AND KPSC IN BR AND STRATUS. ANY
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN AFTER
18Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO 2-5
MILES IN RAIN AREAWIDE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG
WITH BR. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A CONCERN UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD
BUT WILL BE SLY AT 15G30KT AT KBDN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  37  45  36 /  30  90  50  30
ALW  42  37  46  39 /  30  90  50  40
PSC  38  36  48  38 /  30  90  30  10
YKM  36  29  45  32 /  70  90  30  10
HRI  39  36  46  37 /  30  90  40  20
ELN  35  29  45  32 /  80  90  30  10
RDM  44  37  44  26 /  70  90  50  40
LGD  41  38  41  33 /  20  90  70  50
GCD  43  33  40  31 /  30  90  70  40
DLS  37  35  45  38 /  80 100  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY
     ORZ041-044-050-505-507-508-510-511.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ049.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY WAZ024-026>029-521.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM PST
     SATURDAY WAZ520.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/78







000
FXUS66 KPDT 211119 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
319 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT HAS
ALLOWED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY THE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. DENSE FOG LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
HAS A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH IT. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY
OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR ALONG
THE WASHINGTON EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIMINISHING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BREAK THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS CLEARING OUT THE FOG AND STRATUS AND ENDING THE AIR
STAGNATION EVENT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. 94

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVE AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DIVERGE AFTERWARDS WITH
THE GFS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AND THE ECMWF MILDER WEATHER
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA TO THE EAST. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS ON
SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR MOSTLY RAIN AREAWIDE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN COULD RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTH ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS. IF THE GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT IT COULD TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MORE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SWWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW HAVE JUST SHOWED A COOLING TREND BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THAT THE GFS WOULD INDICATE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
EXPOSED RIDGES. 78

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...LIFR CONDITIONS IN FZFG WILL
CONTINUE AT KPDT AND KALW THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE EXPECT MORNING MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS AT KDLS...KYKM AND KPSC IN BR AND STRATUS. ANY
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN AFTER
18Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO 2-5
MILES IN RAIN AREAWIDE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG
WITH BR. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A CONCERN UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD
BUT WILL BE SLY AT 15G30KT AT KBDN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  37  45  36 /  30  90  50  30
ALW  42  37  46  39 /  30  90  50  40
PSC  38  36  48  38 /  30  90  30  10
YKM  36  29  45  32 /  70  90  30  10
HRI  39  36  46  37 /  30  90  40  20
ELN  35  29  45  32 /  80  90  30  10
RDM  44  37  44  26 /  70  90  50  40
LGD  41  38  41  33 /  20  90  70  50
GCD  43  33  40  31 /  30  90  70  40
DLS  37  35  45  38 /  80 100  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY
     ORZ041-044-050-505-507-508-510-511.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ049.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY WAZ024-026>029-521.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM PST
     SATURDAY WAZ520.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/78






000
FXUS66 KPQR 211109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
303 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORE MILD FALL WEATHER ON THE WAY. THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM ARRIVES TODAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE
NORTH PACIFIC 150 KT JETSTREAM. THE WARM FRONT PORTION WILL REACH
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT.
WIND...COASTAL WINDS LOOK MARGINAL FOR HIGH WINDS BUT BELIEVE THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 60
MPH AT THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.  PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 850 MB AND 950 MB WINDS ALIGN ALONG THE COAST
JUST AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE...A SHORT
WINDOW.   THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW ON THE FRONT MORE THAN NAM AND
GFS...BUT PLACES IT CLOSER THE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.INLAND
VALLEYS WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY...THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS HAS NOT COOLED VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT.  MOST TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING A DEGREE OR TWO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIVER. TIMING OF THE PCPN AND
EXPECTED WARMING WILL LIKELY LIMIT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.  ACCUMULATIONS AND
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THIS WEEK.

SNOW...SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.

RAIN AMOUNTS...A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.

CONVECTION...500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON
SATURDAY. LIFTED INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
VORT MAX THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE
INSTABILITY. SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS AND INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED AS WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

ALSO FOR THIS MORNING AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BUT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AS SO WILL
END THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  /26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COAST...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE
INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN BETWEEN 16-18Z TODAY. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WHERE IFR AND LIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...POSSIBLY LIFTING TO LOW END MVFR AFTER 21Z TODAY WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING RAIN DROPS CONDITIONS TO MVFR BY 18Z
THROUGH TONIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AT KPDX AND ERN APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH E TO SE SURFACE AND 30-40 KT S-SW WIND AT FL 020
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BY 18Z TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS FROM
21Z FRI-03Z SAT OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS. 06Z MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON WIND SPEEDS SO HAVE REPLACED THE STORM WATCH
WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS 10 NM FROM THE SHORELINE. STILL
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COASTAL
JET SITUATION. WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND WILL
REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

SEAS AT 10 FT WILL CONTINUE EARLY TODAY...BEFORE QUICKLY BUILDING
BY NOON TODAY WITH THE STRONG GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS. COULD
GET CLOSE TO 20 FEET LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
WITH A LARGE WIND- WAVE COMPONENT. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AS WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SEAS
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM NOON PST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN FROM NOON TODAY TO
     10 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 211109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
303 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORE MILD FALL WEATHER ON THE WAY. THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM ARRIVES TODAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE
NORTH PACIFIC 150 KT JETSTREAM. THE WARM FRONT PORTION WILL REACH
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT.
WIND...COASTAL WINDS LOOK MARGINAL FOR HIGH WINDS BUT BELIEVE THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 60
MPH AT THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.  PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 850 MB AND 950 MB WINDS ALIGN ALONG THE COAST
JUST AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE...A SHORT
WINDOW.   THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW ON THE FRONT MORE THAN NAM AND
GFS...BUT PLACES IT CLOSER THE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.INLAND
VALLEYS WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY...THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS HAS NOT COOLED VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT.  MOST TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING A DEGREE OR TWO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIVER. TIMING OF THE PCPN AND
EXPECTED WARMING WILL LIKELY LIMIT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.  ACCUMULATIONS AND
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THIS WEEK.

SNOW...SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.

RAIN AMOUNTS...A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.

CONVECTION...500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON
SATURDAY. LIFTED INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
VORT MAX THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE
INSTABILITY. SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS AND INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED AS WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

ALSO FOR THIS MORNING AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BUT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AS SO WILL
END THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  /26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COAST...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE
INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN BETWEEN 16-18Z TODAY. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WHERE IFR AND LIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...POSSIBLY LIFTING TO LOW END MVFR AFTER 21Z TODAY WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING RAIN DROPS CONDITIONS TO MVFR BY 18Z
THROUGH TONIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AT KPDX AND ERN APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH E TO SE SURFACE AND 30-40 KT S-SW WIND AT FL 020
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BY 18Z TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS FROM
21Z FRI-03Z SAT OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS. 06Z MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON WIND SPEEDS SO HAVE REPLACED THE STORM WATCH
WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS 10 NM FROM THE SHORELINE. STILL
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COASTAL
JET SITUATION. WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND WILL
REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

SEAS AT 10 FT WILL CONTINUE EARLY TODAY...BEFORE QUICKLY BUILDING
BY NOON TODAY WITH THE STRONG GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS. COULD
GET CLOSE TO 20 FEET LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
WITH A LARGE WIND- WAVE COMPONENT. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AS WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SEAS
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM NOON PST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN FROM NOON TODAY TO
     10 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 211109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
303 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MORE TYPICAL FALL WATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MORE MILD FALL WEATHER ON THE WAY. THE NEXT DEVELOPING
SYSTEM ARRIVES TODAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING ALONG THE
NORTH PACIFIC 150 KT JETSTREAM. THE WARM FRONT PORTION WILL REACH
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT.
WIND...COASTAL WINDS LOOK MARGINAL FOR HIGH WINDS BUT BELIEVE THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 60
MPH AT THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.  PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 850 MB AND 950 MB WINDS ALIGN ALONG THE COAST
JUST AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE...A SHORT
WINDOW.   THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW ON THE FRONT MORE THAN NAM AND
GFS...BUT PLACES IT CLOSER THE THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.INLAND
VALLEYS WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY...THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS HAS NOT COOLED VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT.  MOST TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING A DEGREE OR TWO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIVER. TIMING OF THE PCPN AND
EXPECTED WARMING WILL LIKELY LIMIT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.  ACCUMULATIONS AND
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THIS WEEK.

SNOW...SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE AREA TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT SATURDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHICS BECOME
FAVORABLE IN THIS COLDER AIR MASS. 850 MB WINDS ARE WESTERLY 25 TO
45 KT SAT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SHOWERS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP
NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT COVERS THIS UNTIL THEN.

RAIN AMOUNTS...A BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD ENDING
TONIGHT. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AN INCH. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS.

CONVECTION...500 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -25 TO -30 C ON
SATURDAY. LIFTED INDEX LOWERS TO AROUND 0 TO -2. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK
VORT MAX THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TO ASSIST IN THE
INSTABILITY. SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WATERS AND INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOWLAND MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED AS WELL...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

ALSO FOR THIS MORNING AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY OVERNIGHT BUT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AS SO WILL
END THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  /26


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE COAST...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE
INCREASING MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN BETWEEN 16-18Z TODAY. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WHERE IFR AND LIFR FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...POSSIBLY LIFTING TO LOW END MVFR AFTER 21Z TODAY WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING RAIN DROPS CONDITIONS TO MVFR BY 18Z
THROUGH TONIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AT KPDX AND ERN APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH E TO SE SURFACE AND 30-40 KT S-SW WIND AT FL 020
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BY 18Z TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS FROM
21Z FRI-03Z SAT OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS. 06Z MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON WIND SPEEDS SO HAVE REPLACED THE STORM WATCH
WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS 10 NM FROM THE SHORELINE. STILL
A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COASTAL
JET SITUATION. WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND WILL
REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

SEAS AT 10 FT WILL CONTINUE EARLY TODAY...BEFORE QUICKLY BUILDING
BY NOON TODAY WITH THE STRONG GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS. COULD
GET CLOSE TO 20 FEET LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
WITH A LARGE WIND- WAVE COMPONENT. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AS WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SEAS
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEISHAAR/27

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM NOON PST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN FROM NOON TODAY TO
     10 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 211057
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT HAS
ALLOWED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY THE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. DENSE FOG LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
HAS A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH IT. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY
OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR ALONG
THE WASHINGTON EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIMINISHING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BREAK THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS CLEARING OUT THE FOG AND STRATUS AND ENDING THE AIR
STAGNATION EVENT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. 94

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVE AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DIVERGE AFTERWARDS WITH
THE GFS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AND THE ECMWF MILDER WEATHER
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA TO THE EAST. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS ON
SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR MOSTLY RAIN AREAWIDE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN COULD RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTH ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS. IF THE GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT IT COULD TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MORE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SWWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW HAVE JUST SHOWED A COOLING TREND BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THAT THE GFS WOULD INDICATE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
EXPOSED RIDGES. 78

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...IFR AND MVFR VIS DUE TO
FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KALW, KPSC, KDLS AND KYKM. AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
DECREASE SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT MOST OF THESE SITES
OVERNIGHT. KPDT IS CURRENTLY VLIFR IN THE FOG, AND EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD WHERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE DUE TO A SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP KRDM AND KBDN VFR. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL FORECAST RAIN,
THOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT KPSC AND KPDT. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT KYKM AND KDLS WITH THIS PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
ALL OTHER SITES VFR, BUT MVFR IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KTS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT KALW, KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KBDN. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  37  45  36 /  30  90  50  30
ALW  42  37  46  39 /  30  90  50  40
PSC  38  36  48  38 /  30  90  30  10
YKM  36  29  45  32 /  70  90  30  10
HRI  39  36  46  37 /  30  90  40  20
ELN  35  29  45  32 /  80  90  30  10
RDM  44  37  44  26 /  70  90  50  40
LGD  41  38  41  33 /  20  90  70  50
GCD  43  33  40  31 /  30  90  70  40
DLS  37  35  45  38 /  80 100  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY
     ORZ041-044-050-505-507-508-510-511.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ049.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY WAZ024-026>029-521.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM PST
     SATURDAY WAZ520.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/78








000
FXUS66 KPDT 211057
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT HAS
ALLOWED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY THE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. DENSE FOG LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
HAS A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH IT. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY
OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR ALONG
THE WASHINGTON EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIMINISHING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BREAK THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS CLEARING OUT THE FOG AND STRATUS AND ENDING THE AIR
STAGNATION EVENT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. 94

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVE AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DIVERGE AFTERWARDS WITH
THE GFS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AND THE ECMWF MILDER WEATHER
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA TO THE EAST. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS ON
SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR MOSTLY RAIN AREAWIDE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN COULD RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTH ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS. IF THE GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT IT COULD TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MORE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SWWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW HAVE JUST SHOWED A COOLING TREND BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THAT THE GFS WOULD INDICATE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
EXPOSED RIDGES. 78

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...IFR AND MVFR VIS DUE TO
FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KALW, KPSC, KDLS AND KYKM. AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
DECREASE SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT MOST OF THESE SITES
OVERNIGHT. KPDT IS CURRENTLY VLIFR IN THE FOG, AND EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD WHERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE DUE TO A SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP KRDM AND KBDN VFR. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL FORECAST RAIN,
THOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT KPSC AND KPDT. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT KYKM AND KDLS WITH THIS PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
ALL OTHER SITES VFR, BUT MVFR IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KTS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT KALW, KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KBDN. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  37  45  36 /  30  90  50  30
ALW  42  37  46  39 /  30  90  50  40
PSC  38  36  48  38 /  30  90  30  10
YKM  36  29  45  32 /  70  90  30  10
HRI  39  36  46  37 /  30  90  40  20
ELN  35  29  45  32 /  80  90  30  10
RDM  44  37  44  26 /  70  90  50  40
LGD  41  38  41  33 /  20  90  70  50
GCD  43  33  40  31 /  30  90  70  40
DLS  37  35  45  38 /  80 100  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY
     ORZ041-044-050-505-507-508-510-511.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ049.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY WAZ024-026>029-521.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM PST
     SATURDAY WAZ520.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/78








000
FXUS66 KPDT 211057
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT HAS
ALLOWED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY THE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. DENSE FOG LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
HAS A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH IT. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY
OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR ALONG
THE WASHINGTON EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIMINISHING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BREAK THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS CLEARING OUT THE FOG AND STRATUS AND ENDING THE AIR
STAGNATION EVENT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. 94

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVE AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DIVERGE AFTERWARDS WITH
THE GFS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AND THE ECMWF MILDER WEATHER
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA TO THE EAST. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS ON
SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR MOSTLY RAIN AREAWIDE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN COULD RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTH ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS. IF THE GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT IT COULD TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MORE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SWWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW HAVE JUST SHOWED A COOLING TREND BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THAT THE GFS WOULD INDICATE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
EXPOSED RIDGES. 78

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...IFR AND MVFR VIS DUE TO
FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KALW, KPSC, KDLS AND KYKM. AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
DECREASE SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT MOST OF THESE SITES
OVERNIGHT. KPDT IS CURRENTLY VLIFR IN THE FOG, AND EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD WHERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE DUE TO A SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP KRDM AND KBDN VFR. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL FORECAST RAIN,
THOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT KPSC AND KPDT. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT KYKM AND KDLS WITH THIS PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
ALL OTHER SITES VFR, BUT MVFR IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KTS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT KALW, KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KBDN. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  37  45  36 /  30  90  50  30
ALW  42  37  46  39 /  30  90  50  40
PSC  38  36  48  38 /  30  90  30  10
YKM  36  29  45  32 /  70  90  30  10
HRI  39  36  46  37 /  30  90  40  20
ELN  35  29  45  32 /  80  90  30  10
RDM  44  37  44  26 /  70  90  50  40
LGD  41  38  41  33 /  20  90  70  50
GCD  43  33  40  31 /  30  90  70  40
DLS  37  35  45  38 /  80 100  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY
     ORZ041-044-050-505-507-508-510-511.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ049.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY WAZ024-026>029-521.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM PST
     SATURDAY WAZ520.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/78








000
FXUS66 KPDT 211057
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT HAS
ALLOWED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY THE FOG AND
STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. DENSE FOG LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
HAS A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH IT. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY
OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR ALONG
THE WASHINGTON EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIMINISHING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BREAK THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS CLEARING OUT THE FOG AND STRATUS AND ENDING THE AIR
STAGNATION EVENT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. 94

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVE AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DIVERGE AFTERWARDS WITH
THE GFS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AND THE ECMWF MILDER WEATHER
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA TO THE EAST. HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS ON
SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR MOSTLY RAIN AREAWIDE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN COULD RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTH ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS. IF THE GFS
MODEL IS CORRECT IT COULD TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MORE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SWWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. FOR NOW HAVE JUST SHOWED A COOLING TREND BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THAT THE GFS WOULD INDICATE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
EXPOSED RIDGES. 78

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...IFR AND MVFR VIS DUE TO
FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KALW, KPSC, KDLS AND KYKM. AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
DECREASE SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT MOST OF THESE SITES
OVERNIGHT. KPDT IS CURRENTLY VLIFR IN THE FOG, AND EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD WHERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE DUE TO A SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP KRDM AND KBDN VFR. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL FORECAST RAIN,
THOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT KPSC AND KPDT. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT KYKM AND KDLS WITH THIS PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
ALL OTHER SITES VFR, BUT MVFR IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KTS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT KALW, KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KBDN. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  37  45  36 /  30  90  50  30
ALW  42  37  46  39 /  30  90  50  40
PSC  38  36  48  38 /  30  90  30  10
YKM  36  29  45  32 /  70  90  30  10
HRI  39  36  46  37 /  30  90  40  20
ELN  35  29  45  32 /  80  90  30  10
RDM  44  37  44  26 /  70  90  50  40
LGD  41  38  41  33 /  20  90  70  50
GCD  43  33  40  31 /  30  90  70  40
DLS  37  35  45  38 /  80 100  50  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY
     ORZ041-044-050-505-507-508-510-511.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ507.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ049.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY WAZ024-026>029-521.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM PST
     SATURDAY WAZ520.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/78/78








000
FXUS65 KBOI 211026
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
326 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...NEXT NORTH PACIFIC STORM WILL COME INTO OUR CWA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THIS STORM IS RELATIVELY STRONG AND WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 4000
FEET MSL AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE LOWER VALLEYS.  WARM FRONT
WILL COME IN THIS EVENING AND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE
SATURDAY.  THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO NEAR 5000 FEET MSL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.  SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AND ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER IN THE UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY...AND FREEZING RAIN
WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW IN THE COLDER PARTS OF THE UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE LATE AFTERNOON
COMMUTING PERIOD TODAY MAY BE SPARED THESE PROBLEMS AS THE PCPN
SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 6 PM MST.  MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 4 TO
8 INMCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.  LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO HAVE LOCAL FREEZING
RAIN BUT THE MAIN WEATHER IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SNOW.  WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE BEING POSTED FOR THE ZONES LISTED BELOW.
LATER SATURDAY THE STORM/S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING
ENOUGH WIND TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR IN THE VALLEYS.  HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL TURN COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE THE VALLEYS
SHOULD GET WARM ENOUGH TO MELT SOME SNOW FROM LAST WEEK/S STORM.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY.  TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING.  HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RISE ABOUT
TEN DEGREES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN OTHER ZONES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN COLD MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE A
A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3000 FEET MSL. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST BEGINS TO BUILD. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM AND CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME INVERTED ESPECIALLY IF THE VALLEYS ARE SNOW-COVERED
FROM THE SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND WEDNESDAY
AS THERE IS NO CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR-LIFR FOG AND STRATUS
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND SNAKE RIVER BASIN. PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD ACROSS SE OREGON AROUND 00Z SAT AND SW IDAHO BY 03Z WITH
MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED. -FZRA EXPECTED AT KBOI KONO KEUL
CHANGING TO -RA SOME TIME SAT MORNING. FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE TO
AROUND 7000FT MSL SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 4000
FEET MSL SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH FRI 21Z.
SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO SW 20-30KT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON BY 06Z
SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY
35-65KT BY SAT 06Z...STRONGEST IN OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     SATURDAY IDZ014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY IDZ011>013-028-029-033.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY ORZ064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ SATURDAY ORZ062-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 211026
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
326 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...NEXT NORTH PACIFIC STORM WILL COME INTO OUR CWA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THIS STORM IS RELATIVELY STRONG AND WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 4000
FEET MSL AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE LOWER VALLEYS.  WARM FRONT
WILL COME IN THIS EVENING AND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE
SATURDAY.  THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO NEAR 5000 FEET MSL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.  SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AND ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER IN THE UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY...AND FREEZING RAIN
WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW IN THE COLDER PARTS OF THE UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE LATE AFTERNOON
COMMUTING PERIOD TODAY MAY BE SPARED THESE PROBLEMS AS THE PCPN
SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 6 PM MST.  MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 4 TO
8 INMCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.  LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO HAVE LOCAL FREEZING
RAIN BUT THE MAIN WEATHER IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SNOW.  WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE BEING POSTED FOR THE ZONES LISTED BELOW.
LATER SATURDAY THE STORM/S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING
ENOUGH WIND TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR IN THE VALLEYS.  HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL TURN COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE THE VALLEYS
SHOULD GET WARM ENOUGH TO MELT SOME SNOW FROM LAST WEEK/S STORM.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY.  TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING.  HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RISE ABOUT
TEN DEGREES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN OTHER ZONES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN COLD MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE A
A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3000 FEET MSL. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST BEGINS TO BUILD. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM AND CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME INVERTED ESPECIALLY IF THE VALLEYS ARE SNOW-COVERED
FROM THE SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND WEDNESDAY
AS THERE IS NO CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR-LIFR FOG AND STRATUS
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND SNAKE RIVER BASIN. PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD ACROSS SE OREGON AROUND 00Z SAT AND SW IDAHO BY 03Z WITH
MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED. -FZRA EXPECTED AT KBOI KONO KEUL
CHANGING TO -RA SOME TIME SAT MORNING. FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE TO
AROUND 7000FT MSL SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 4000
FEET MSL SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH FRI 21Z.
SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO SW 20-30KT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON BY 06Z
SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY
35-65KT BY SAT 06Z...STRONGEST IN OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     SATURDAY IDZ014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY IDZ011>013-028-029-033.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY ORZ064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ SATURDAY ORZ062-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 210600 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1000 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF A WEAK,
SPLITTING DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. OVERALL THIS DISTURBANCE IS KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL OREGON THIS
EVENING, AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG
PERSISTS IN THE COOLER AIR UNDER THE COLUMBIA BASIN INVERSIONS, WITH
THE THICKEST FOG ALONG THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF PENDLETON. WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE EDGES OF THIS COOL AIR POOL, DO NOT EXPECT
ANY REAL CHANGE IN THE AREAS AFFECTED OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS ACTUALLY HAVE THE FOG THICKEN AS THE CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DEPART LATER IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD. DID UPDATE LOW TEMPS AT
A FEW LOCATIONS AROUND THE AREA. ALSO INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS LATER TONIGHT
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SPLITTING DISTURBANCE. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW. LARGELY HAVE LEFT CURRENT PRECIP
CHANCES AND TIMING INTACT, BUT DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW
LEVELS AND HIGH TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH MORE MOUNTAINS
SNOW AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BREEZY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME ON
MONDAY...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING. THE MODELS THEN
DIVERGE DRAMATICALLY GOING INTO TUESDAY WITH THE GFS BUILDING A
RIDGE FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER WHILE THE ECMWF RIDGE IS MUCH WEAKER
ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO STREAM INLAND. HAVE
THEREFORE ATTEMPTED TO BLEND THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS AND KEPT A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 6000
FEET. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE 20/12Z ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION DROPPING OVER THE TOP OF AN OFFSHORE
RIDGE INTO MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 20/12Z GFS AND
13KM PARALLEL GFS MODEL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE CWA...FOR NOW TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE TIMING AND RIDGE POSITION DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE 20/12Z GFS TRIES
TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DISTURBANCE...MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL WOULD KEEP US IN A DRY/COOL NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...IFR AND MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG WILL CONTINUE AT
KALW, KPSC, KDLS AND KYKM. AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASE SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT MOST OF THESE SITES OVERNIGHT. KPDT IS
CURRENTLY VLIFR IN THE FOG, AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE DUE TO A SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP KRDM AND KBDN VFR. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL FORECAST RAIN, THOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT
KPSC AND KPDT. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KYKM AND
KDLS WITH THIS PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL OTHER SITES VFR, BUT
MVFR IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT ALL SITES
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT KALW,
KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE AT KBDN. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  38  46 /  10  20  90  60
ALW  31  43  38  48 /  10  20  90  60
PSC  27  38  36  50 /  10  30  90  20
YKM  28  36  30  47 /  10  60  90  30
HRI  28  39  36  48 /  10  30  90  40
ELN  28  36  28  46 /  10  70  90  30
RDM  29  46  34  42 /  20  60  90  60
LGD  30  39  33  39 /  20  20  90  70
GCD  33  45  32  37 /  20  20  90  70
DLS  30  36  33  47 /  10  70 100  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY
     ORZ041-044-050-505-507-508-510-511.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY WAZ024-026>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/90







000
FXUS66 KPDT 210600 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1000 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF A WEAK,
SPLITTING DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. OVERALL THIS DISTURBANCE IS KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL OREGON THIS
EVENING, AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG
PERSISTS IN THE COOLER AIR UNDER THE COLUMBIA BASIN INVERSIONS, WITH
THE THICKEST FOG ALONG THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF PENDLETON. WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE EDGES OF THIS COOL AIR POOL, DO NOT EXPECT
ANY REAL CHANGE IN THE AREAS AFFECTED OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS ACTUALLY HAVE THE FOG THICKEN AS THE CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DEPART LATER IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD. DID UPDATE LOW TEMPS AT
A FEW LOCATIONS AROUND THE AREA. ALSO INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS LATER TONIGHT
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SPLITTING DISTURBANCE. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW. LARGELY HAVE LEFT CURRENT PRECIP
CHANCES AND TIMING INTACT, BUT DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW
LEVELS AND HIGH TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH MORE MOUNTAINS
SNOW AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BREEZY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME ON
MONDAY...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING. THE MODELS THEN
DIVERGE DRAMATICALLY GOING INTO TUESDAY WITH THE GFS BUILDING A
RIDGE FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER WHILE THE ECMWF RIDGE IS MUCH WEAKER
ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO STREAM INLAND. HAVE
THEREFORE ATTEMPTED TO BLEND THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS AND KEPT A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 6000
FEET. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE 20/12Z ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION DROPPING OVER THE TOP OF AN OFFSHORE
RIDGE INTO MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 20/12Z GFS AND
13KM PARALLEL GFS MODEL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE CWA...FOR NOW TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE TIMING AND RIDGE POSITION DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE 20/12Z GFS TRIES
TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DISTURBANCE...MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL WOULD KEEP US IN A DRY/COOL NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...IFR AND MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG WILL CONTINUE AT
KALW, KPSC, KDLS AND KYKM. AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASE SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT MOST OF THESE SITES OVERNIGHT. KPDT IS
CURRENTLY VLIFR IN THE FOG, AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE DUE TO A SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP KRDM AND KBDN VFR. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL FORECAST RAIN, THOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT
KPSC AND KPDT. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KYKM AND
KDLS WITH THIS PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL OTHER SITES VFR, BUT
MVFR IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT ALL SITES
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT KALW,
KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE AT KBDN. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  38  46 /  10  20  90  60
ALW  31  43  38  48 /  10  20  90  60
PSC  27  38  36  50 /  10  30  90  20
YKM  28  36  30  47 /  10  60  90  30
HRI  28  39  36  48 /  10  30  90  40
ELN  28  36  28  46 /  10  70  90  30
RDM  29  46  34  42 /  20  60  90  60
LGD  30  39  33  39 /  20  20  90  70
GCD  33  45  32  37 /  20  20  90  70
DLS  30  36  33  47 /  10  70 100  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY
     ORZ041-044-050-505-507-508-510-511.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY WAZ024-026>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/90







000
FXUS66 KPDT 210600 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1000 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF A WEAK,
SPLITTING DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. OVERALL THIS DISTURBANCE IS KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL OREGON THIS
EVENING, AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG
PERSISTS IN THE COOLER AIR UNDER THE COLUMBIA BASIN INVERSIONS, WITH
THE THICKEST FOG ALONG THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF PENDLETON. WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE EDGES OF THIS COOL AIR POOL, DO NOT EXPECT
ANY REAL CHANGE IN THE AREAS AFFECTED OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS ACTUALLY HAVE THE FOG THICKEN AS THE CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DEPART LATER IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD. DID UPDATE LOW TEMPS AT
A FEW LOCATIONS AROUND THE AREA. ALSO INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS LATER TONIGHT
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SPLITTING DISTURBANCE. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW. LARGELY HAVE LEFT CURRENT PRECIP
CHANCES AND TIMING INTACT, BUT DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW
LEVELS AND HIGH TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH MORE MOUNTAINS
SNOW AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BREEZY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME ON
MONDAY...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING. THE MODELS THEN
DIVERGE DRAMATICALLY GOING INTO TUESDAY WITH THE GFS BUILDING A
RIDGE FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER WHILE THE ECMWF RIDGE IS MUCH WEAKER
ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO STREAM INLAND. HAVE
THEREFORE ATTEMPTED TO BLEND THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS AND KEPT A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 6000
FEET. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE 20/12Z ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION DROPPING OVER THE TOP OF AN OFFSHORE
RIDGE INTO MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 20/12Z GFS AND
13KM PARALLEL GFS MODEL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE CWA...FOR NOW TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE TIMING AND RIDGE POSITION DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE 20/12Z GFS TRIES
TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DISTURBANCE...MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL WOULD KEEP US IN A DRY/COOL NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...IFR AND MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG WILL CONTINUE AT
KALW, KPSC, KDLS AND KYKM. AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASE SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT MOST OF THESE SITES OVERNIGHT. KPDT IS
CURRENTLY VLIFR IN THE FOG, AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE DUE TO A SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP KRDM AND KBDN VFR. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL FORECAST RAIN, THOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT
KPSC AND KPDT. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KYKM AND
KDLS WITH THIS PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL OTHER SITES VFR, BUT
MVFR IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT ALL SITES
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT KALW,
KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE AT KBDN. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  38  46 /  10  20  90  60
ALW  31  43  38  48 /  10  20  90  60
PSC  27  38  36  50 /  10  30  90  20
YKM  28  36  30  47 /  10  60  90  30
HRI  28  39  36  48 /  10  30  90  40
ELN  28  36  28  46 /  10  70  90  30
RDM  29  46  34  42 /  20  60  90  60
LGD  30  39  33  39 /  20  20  90  70
GCD  33  45  32  37 /  20  20  90  70
DLS  30  36  33  47 /  10  70 100  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY
     ORZ041-044-050-505-507-508-510-511.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY WAZ024-026>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/90







000
FXUS66 KPDT 210600 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1000 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF A WEAK,
SPLITTING DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. OVERALL THIS DISTURBANCE IS KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL OREGON THIS
EVENING, AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG
PERSISTS IN THE COOLER AIR UNDER THE COLUMBIA BASIN INVERSIONS, WITH
THE THICKEST FOG ALONG THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF PENDLETON. WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE EDGES OF THIS COOL AIR POOL, DO NOT EXPECT
ANY REAL CHANGE IN THE AREAS AFFECTED OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS ACTUALLY HAVE THE FOG THICKEN AS THE CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DEPART LATER IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD. DID UPDATE LOW TEMPS AT
A FEW LOCATIONS AROUND THE AREA. ALSO INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS LATER TONIGHT
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SPLITTING DISTURBANCE. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW. LARGELY HAVE LEFT CURRENT PRECIP
CHANCES AND TIMING INTACT, BUT DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW
LEVELS AND HIGH TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH MORE MOUNTAINS
SNOW AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BREEZY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME ON
MONDAY...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING. THE MODELS THEN
DIVERGE DRAMATICALLY GOING INTO TUESDAY WITH THE GFS BUILDING A
RIDGE FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER WHILE THE ECMWF RIDGE IS MUCH WEAKER
ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO STREAM INLAND. HAVE
THEREFORE ATTEMPTED TO BLEND THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS AND KEPT A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 6000
FEET. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE 20/12Z ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION DROPPING OVER THE TOP OF AN OFFSHORE
RIDGE INTO MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 20/12Z GFS AND
13KM PARALLEL GFS MODEL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE CWA...FOR NOW TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE TIMING AND RIDGE POSITION DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE 20/12Z GFS TRIES
TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DISTURBANCE...MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL WOULD KEEP US IN A DRY/COOL NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...IFR AND MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG WILL CONTINUE AT
KALW, KPSC, KDLS AND KYKM. AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASE SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT MOST OF THESE SITES OVERNIGHT. KPDT IS
CURRENTLY VLIFR IN THE FOG, AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE DUE TO A SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP KRDM AND KBDN VFR. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL FORECAST RAIN, THOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT
KPSC AND KPDT. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KYKM AND
KDLS WITH THIS PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL OTHER SITES VFR, BUT
MVFR IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT ALL SITES
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT KALW,
KPDT, KRDM AND KBDN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE AT KBDN. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  38  46 /  10  20  90  60
ALW  31  43  38  48 /  10  20  90  60
PSC  27  38  36  50 /  10  30  90  20
YKM  28  36  30  47 /  10  60  90  30
HRI  28  39  36  48 /  10  30  90  40
ELN  28  36  28  46 /  10  70  90  30
RDM  29  46  34  42 /  20  60  90  60
LGD  30  39  33  39 /  20  20  90  70
GCD  33  45  32  37 /  20  20  90  70
DLS  30  36  33  47 /  10  70 100  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY
     ORZ041-044-050-505-507-508-510-511.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY WAZ024-026>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/90







000
FXUS66 KPDT 210504
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
904 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF A WEAK,
SPLITTING DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. OVERALL THIS DISTURBANCE IS KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL OREGON THIS
EVENING, AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG
PERSISTS IN THE COOLER AIR UNDER THE COLUMBIA BASIN INVERSIONS, WITH
THE THICKEST FOG ALONG THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF PENDLETON. WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE EDGES OF THIS COOL AIR POOL, DO NOT EXPECT
ANY REAL CHANGE IN THE AREAS AFFECTED OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS ACTUALLY HAVE THE FOG THICKEN AS THE CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DEPART LATER IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD. DID UPDATE LOW TEMPS AT
A FEW LOCATIONS AROUND THE AREA. ALSO INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS LATER TONIGHT
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SPLITTING DISTURBANCE. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW. LARGELY HAVE LEFT CURRENT PRECIP
CHANCES AND TIMING INTACT, BUT DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW
LEVELS AND HIGH TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH MORE MOUNTAINS
SNOW AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BREEZY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME ON
MONDAY...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING. THE MODELS THEN
DIVERGE DRAMATICALLY GOING INTO TUESDAY WITH THE GFS BUILDING A
RIDGE FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER WHILE THE ECMWF RIDGE IS MUCH WEAKER
ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO STREAM INLAND. HAVE
THEREFORE ATTEMPTED TO BLEND THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS AND KEPT A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 6000
FEET. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE 20/12Z ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION DROPPING OVER THE TOP OF AN OFFSHORE
RIDGE INTO MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 20/12Z GFS AND
13KM PARALLEL GFS MODEL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE CWA...FOR NOW TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE TIMING AND RIDGE POSITION DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE 20/12Z GFS TRIES
TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DISTURBANCE...MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL WOULD KEEP US IN A DRY/COOL NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A RETURN TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KALW AND KPSC...AND LIFR AT KPDT...DUE TO FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS MAY EVEN DETERIORATE FURTHER OVERNIGHT AND AT
KDLS AND KYKM AS THE FOG  THICKENS. AT KBDN AND KRDM CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY VFR WITH HIGHER CIGS AND BETTER VISIBILITY. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY WITH KDLS...KYKM...KRDM AND
KBDN SEEING RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND LESS THAN 5 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND START TO INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  27  42  38  46 /  10  20  90  60
ALW  31  43  38  48 /  10  20  90  60
PSC  27  38  36  50 /  10  30  90  20
YKM  28  36  30  47 /  10  60  90  30
HRI  28  39  36  48 /  10  30  90  40
ELN  28  36  28  46 /  10  70  90  30
RDM  29  46  34  42 /  20  60  90  60
LGD  30  39  33  39 /  20  20  90  70
GCD  33  45  32  37 /  20  20  90  70
DLS  30  36  33  47 /  10  70 100  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY
     ORZ041-044-050-505-507-508-510-511.

WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY WAZ024-026>029-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/90








000
FXUS66 KPQR 210409
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
808 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE OTHER OVER CALIFORNIA. IN
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO HOVER NEAR FREEZING IN THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY...SO SOME VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
STRONG AND MOIST FRONT WILL BRING HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONG COASTAL
WINDS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
CAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS
LEVEL THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY COSMETIC CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
TO MAKE IT MORE CONSISTENT WITH CONDITIONS OCCURRING THIS EVENING.
FOG IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS...WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO
1/4 MILE AT MCMINNVILLE AIRPORT WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. MILD
AND MOIST PACIFIC AIR IS RUNNING OVER GROUND THAT IS BOTH MOIST AND
COOL... LIKELY AIDING THE FORMATION OF FOG DESPITE HIGHER CLOUD
COVER. AWAY FROM THE COLUMBIA GORGE...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S...AND
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES AT MOST. THEREFORE
INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FOG. DECIDED AGAINST WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DUE TO THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER...BUT IF THESE CLOUDS CLEAR IT IS
LIKELY FOG WILL QUICKLY BECOME DENSE. LUCKILY MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND FREEZING IN THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND
NEARBY PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH FORCING...THUS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT. 00Z
NAM BUFR AND UW 4KM WRF-GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO SATURATION
IN THE COLUMN BELOW -5 DEG C...SO MOST PRECIPITATION TONIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE. FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN STILL CAUSE SOME
TRAVEL HASSLES...BUT ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND MOSTLY FELT IN
THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY.

WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE...WITH SOMEWHAT OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
HANDLES IT WELL. DECIDED TO PUSH THE DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO
UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO THE NEXT SHIFT...AS THERE IS STILL
SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS AS TO HOW STRONG THE COASTAL WINDS
WILL BE. 00Z NAM DOES HAVE A 60-65 KT COASTAL JET DOWN TO 900 MB
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A
BEACHES/HEADLANDS HIGH WIND EVENT. HOWEVER THERE ARE A COUPLE
COMPLICATIONS...A SECONDARY SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN AND BECOME DOMINANT AS THE FIRST FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS
COULD ROB SOME OF THE GRADIENT FROM THE COAST AND THEREFORE PREVENT
WINDS FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG WITH THE PRELIMINARY FRONT.
ALSO...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SECONDARY LOW...IT COULD BECOME
A BIT WINDY INLAND AS WELL. WILL HOLD FOR FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE
BEFORE MAKING ANY LAND WARNING/ADVISORY DECISIONS.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 315 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE
MOVING ONSHORE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF US THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW
TO THE NORTH IS MOVING ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...WHILE THE
OTHER SITS ALONG THE S OREGON AND N CALIFORNIA COAST AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT. IN BETWEEN...WE ARE SEEING ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON AS THE HIGHLY STRETCHED UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. ALSO...THE LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT TEMPS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER FOR
NOW. THE FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT A FEW WEAK SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON THE CLEARING SKIES OFFSHORE APPARENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE...THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
TO FORM OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

A STRONG 150+ KT JET STREAK WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW TOMORROW. THIS
WILL DRIVE A STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM ONSHORE LATER TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW NIGHT. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS A REGION OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WELL OFFSHORE THAT WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM.
THE FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST AS THE LEADING WARM FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. WE EXPECT A
BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE COAST...COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
WILL BE LOWER...CLOSER TO AROUND AN INCH. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A BURST OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CORE OF
60 KT WINDS AT 925 MB ARE BEING ADVERTISED BY THE 12Z NAM...GFS...
AND ECMWF RUNS. WILL CONFINE THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE BEACHES AND
COASTAL HEADLANDS...WHERE GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT WILL LIMIT WIND
GUSTS TO 50-55 MPH FOR NOW.

IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT FREEZING RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM
BASED ON THE WARMING TEMPS SEEN TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK TO JUST
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND THE FCST MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP TOMORROW. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF
FREEZING RAIN AROUND HOOD RIVER AND IN THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT SOME PATCHY SPOTS OF ICE ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WESTERLY DURING THE EVENING...WHICH WILL WARM
THINGS UP CONSIDERABLY AND PUT AN END TO ANY ICE CONCERNS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS FALLING RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS
TO REMAIN BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN DECENT OROGRAPHIC FLOW. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS WEAK IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
PERIOD OF BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVERNIGHT SAT INTO EARLY
SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME. PYLE


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR AND VFR AS OF 04Z WITH MUCH OF THE COAST
IN MVFR CONDITIONS. ALREADY STARTING TO GET IFR AND LIFR VIS IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT THIS GENERAL MIX TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING IFR AND LIFR IN THE INLAND VALLEYS.
AREAS NEAR THE COLUMBIA GORGE WILL STAY VFR WITH DUE TO EAST WIND.
RAIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST 12-15Z FRI AND THEN INTENSIFY
AFTER 20Z. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOW-END MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND. RAIN SPREADS
INLAND DURING THE DAY FRI...WITH MAINLY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI MORNING...
ALTHOUGH AREAS OF IFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN APPROACHES
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. INCREASING RAIN AFTER 18Z
FRI RESULTING IN MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
LLWS POSSIBLE AT KPDX AND ERN APPROACHES FRI AFTERNOON WITH E TO
SE SURFACE AND 30-40 KT S-SW WIND AT FL 020 BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS HAVE EASED A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT STILL
HOVERING AT OR CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR WIND THROUGH 18Z FRI. STRONG
GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z FRI...WITH COASTAL JET
ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...LOCALIZED 40-45 KT SUSTAINED WIND WITH GUSTS 50-55 KT
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ABOUT 10 NM FROM SHORELINE. LATEST NAM
RUN NOT QUITE AS STRONG...KEEPING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT OVER THE
SRN OREGON WATERS. 00Z GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
SPEEDS FRI AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS MODEL DISCREPANCY WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WARNINGS AND THE STORM WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. WIND SPEEDS
SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SEAS AT 10 FT OR JUST UNDER AS OF 04Z. SEAS FORECAST TO BE
PRIMARILY 9 FT THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EDGE ABOVE 10 FT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS STARTING AT 08Z. SEAS QUICKLY BUILD FRI WITH THE STRONG GALE
OR NEAR STORM-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS. COULD GET CLOSE TO 20 FEET
LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH A LARGE WIND-
WAVE COMPONENT. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF FAIRLY FRI NIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND AS WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM MIDNIGHT
     TONIGHT TO 6 AM PST FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON TO
     10 PM PST FRIDAY.

     STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 210409
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
808 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE OTHER OVER CALIFORNIA. IN
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO HOVER NEAR FREEZING IN THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY...SO SOME VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
STRONG AND MOIST FRONT WILL BRING HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONG COASTAL
WINDS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
CAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY
SATURDAY WHILE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO PASS
LEVEL THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY COSMETIC CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
TO MAKE IT MORE CONSISTENT WITH CONDITIONS OCCURRING THIS EVENING.
FOG IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS...WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO
1/4 MILE AT MCMINNVILLE AIRPORT WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. MILD
AND MOIST PACIFIC AIR IS RUNNING OVER GROUND THAT IS BOTH MOIST AND
COOL... LIKELY AIDING THE FORMATION OF FOG DESPITE HIGHER CLOUD
COVER. AWAY FROM THE COLUMBIA GORGE...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S...AND
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES AT MOST. THEREFORE
INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FOG. DECIDED AGAINST WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DUE TO THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER...BUT IF THESE CLOUDS CLEAR IT IS
LIKELY FOG WILL QUICKLY BECOME DENSE. LUCKILY MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND FREEZING IN THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND
NEARBY PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH FORCING...THUS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT. 00Z
NAM BUFR AND UW 4KM WRF-GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO SATURATION
IN THE COLUMN BELOW -5 DEG C...SO MOST PRECIPITATION TONIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE. FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN STILL CAUSE SOME
TRAVEL HASSLES...BUT ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND MOSTLY FELT IN
THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY.

WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE...WITH SOMEWHAT OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
HANDLES IT WELL. DECIDED TO PUSH THE DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO
UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO THE NEXT SHIFT...AS THERE IS STILL
SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS AS TO HOW STRONG THE COASTAL WINDS
WILL BE. 00Z NAM DOES HAVE A 60-65 KT COASTAL JET DOWN TO 900 MB
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A
BEACHES/HEADLANDS HIGH WIND EVENT. HOWEVER THERE ARE A COUPLE
COMPLICATIONS...A SECONDARY SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN AND BECOME DOMINANT AS THE FIRST FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS
COULD ROB SOME OF THE GRADIENT FROM THE COAST AND THEREFORE PREVENT
WINDS FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG WITH THE PRELIMINARY FRONT.
ALSO...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SECONDARY LOW...IT COULD BECOME
A BIT WINDY INLAND AS WELL. WILL HOLD FOR FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE
BEFORE MAKING ANY LAND WARNING/ADVISORY DECISIONS.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 315 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE
MOVING ONSHORE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF US THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW
TO THE NORTH IS MOVING ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...WHILE THE
OTHER SITS ALONG THE S OREGON AND N CALIFORNIA COAST AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT. IN BETWEEN...WE ARE SEEING ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON AS THE HIGHLY STRETCHED UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. ALSO...THE LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT TEMPS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE. SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER FOR
NOW. THE FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT A FEW WEAK SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON THE CLEARING SKIES OFFSHORE APPARENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE...THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
TO FORM OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

A STRONG 150+ KT JET STREAK WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW TOMORROW. THIS
WILL DRIVE A STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM ONSHORE LATER TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW NIGHT. AMSU SATELLITE DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWS A REGION OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WELL OFFSHORE THAT WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM.
THE FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST AS THE LEADING WARM FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. WE EXPECT A
BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE COAST...COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES OVER ABOUT A 12 HR PERIOD. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
WILL BE LOWER...CLOSER TO AROUND AN INCH. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A BURST OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CORE OF
60 KT WINDS AT 925 MB ARE BEING ADVERTISED BY THE 12Z NAM...GFS...
AND ECMWF RUNS. WILL CONFINE THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE BEACHES AND
COASTAL HEADLANDS...WHERE GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT WILL LIMIT WIND
GUSTS TO 50-55 MPH FOR NOW.

IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT FREEZING RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM
BASED ON THE WARMING TEMPS SEEN TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK TO JUST
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND THE FCST MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP TOMORROW. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF
FREEZING RAIN AROUND HOOD RIVER AND IN THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT SOME PATCHY SPOTS OF ICE ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WESTERLY DURING THE EVENING...WHICH WILL WARM
THINGS UP CONSIDERABLY AND PUT AN END TO ANY ICE CONCERNS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS FALLING RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS
TO REMAIN BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING IN DECENT OROGRAPHIC FLOW. SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES
AS WEAK IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
PERIOD OF BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVERNIGHT SAT INTO EARLY
SUN. THIS PERIOD MAY END UP NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME. PYLE


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE WESTERLY OR
ZONAL FLOW THAT SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS TO BUCKLE A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SOME FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO STICK MORE WITH A
DIRTY RIDGE SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF VS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL VARIABILITY INCREASES...THOUGH THE TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR AND VFR AS OF 04Z WITH MUCH OF THE COAST
IN MVFR CONDITIONS. ALREADY STARTING TO GET IFR AND LIFR VIS IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT THIS GENERAL MIX TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING IFR AND LIFR IN THE INLAND VALLEYS.
AREAS NEAR THE COLUMBIA GORGE WILL STAY VFR WITH DUE TO EAST WIND.
RAIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST 12-15Z FRI AND THEN INTENSIFY
AFTER 20Z. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOW-END MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE COAST...ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND. RAIN SPREADS
INLAND DURING THE DAY FRI...WITH MAINLY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI MORNING...
ALTHOUGH AREAS OF IFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN APPROACHES
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. INCREASING RAIN AFTER 18Z
FRI RESULTING IN MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
LLWS POSSIBLE AT KPDX AND ERN APPROACHES FRI AFTERNOON WITH E TO
SE SURFACE AND 30-40 KT S-SW WIND AT FL 020 BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS HAVE EASED A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT STILL
HOVERING AT OR CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR WIND THROUGH 18Z FRI. STRONG
GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z FRI...WITH COASTAL JET
ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...LOCALIZED 40-45 KT SUSTAINED WIND WITH GUSTS 50-55 KT
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ABOUT 10 NM FROM SHORELINE. LATEST NAM
RUN NOT QUITE AS STRONG...KEEPING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT OVER THE
SRN OREGON WATERS. 00Z GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
SPEEDS FRI AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS MODEL DISCREPANCY WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WARNINGS AND THE STORM WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. WIND SPEEDS
SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SEAS AT 10 FT OR JUST UNDER AS OF 04Z. SEAS FORECAST TO BE
PRIMARILY 9 FT THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EDGE ABOVE 10 FT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS STARTING AT 08Z. SEAS QUICKLY BUILD FRI WITH THE STRONG GALE
OR NEAR STORM-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS. COULD GET CLOSE TO 20 FEET
LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH A LARGE WIND-
WAVE COMPONENT. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF FAIRLY FRI NIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND AS WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM MIDNIGHT
     TONIGHT TO 6 AM PST FRIDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON TO
     10 PM PST FRIDAY.

     STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 210407
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
807 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN EXITING TROUGH IS PROVIDING ENOUGH ENERGY FOR A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES AND THE EAST SIDE THIS EVENING...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE THIS EVENING AND SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END IN MOST PLACES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL THIS
EVENING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT FOG IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. MORNING COMMUTES WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY POOR
VISIBILITY IN THE MORNING IN PLACES LIKE ROSEBURG AND MEDFORD.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A DEVELOPING STRONG STORM SYSTEM IN THE
PACIFIC. THIS STORM HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH IT...AS SATELLITE-
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW SWATH OF 1.75
INCHES.  ADDITIONALLY...A STRONG JET OF 145KT AT 300MB PER LATEST
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS...ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. ALL OF
THIS MEANS A WET AND WINDY SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS
OCCURRING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE A HOST OF PRODUCTS
OUT THAT HIGHLIGHT THE WEATHER HAZARDS...INCLUDING A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOCUSING ON PORT ORFORD AND HIGH SURF WARNING FOR THE
COAST AT CFWMFR...HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND EAST SIDE
AT NPWMFR...AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOME ACCUMULATING
MOUNTAIN SNOWS AT SPSMFR.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR EXPECTED
WIND...WAVE...RAIN...AND SNOW IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/00Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY...THEN AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INLAND VALLEYS THIS EVENING. ROSEBURG IS ALREADY IFR. THOSE AREAS
WILL CLEAR TO VFR FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AN INCOMING FRONT WILL
BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST AROUND THAT TIME. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. IN ADDITION...STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO KOTH AND KRBG
BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...THEN LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE VALLEYS. ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT SOME HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BECOME OBSCURED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014...FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAIN A PERIOD OF HIGH CONCERN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONG FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS FRIDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND
SEAS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS...BUILDING TO 20 TO 24 FEET FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SEAS WILL
OCCUR AT LOW TIDE...SO LITTLE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DECREASE. MODERATE WESTERLY SWELL WILL MOVE
IN SATURDAY...SO SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR A WHILE LONGER.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST MODELS
REMAIN STEADFAST IN DEPICTING A STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
SPENT THE BETTER PART OF THE SHIFT TODAY FOCUSING ON THE WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT, AND AS A RESULT, ALL
INHERITED WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED, AND A FEW NEW HAZARDS HAVE
BEEN THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE. MORE ON THAT BELOW. UNTIL THE
STORM ARRIVES, THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN, WITH
SHOWERS RESULTING FORM A WEAKER SYSTEM CURRENTLY DRIFTING ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.

THE INCOMING SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH NOT DEPICTED AS A VERY PROMINENT
TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS, DOES SPORT A VERY SHARP GRADIENT. THIS
IS A SURE SIGN OF STRONG WINDS, AND INDEED, THAT IS WHAT WE EXPECT
ALONG THE COAST, OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND OVER THE EAST SIDE.
ALL OTHER AREAS WILL STILL SEE RATHER BREEZY WINDS. FORECAST MSLP
GRADIENTS BETWEEN NORTH BEND AND ARCATA ARE APPROACHING 10 MB AT
THE PEAK OF THE STORM, AND THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH OVER THE MORE EXPOSED AREAS OF THE COASTLINE.
HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH THERE TO A WARNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO UPGRADED THE EAST SIDE WIND WATCH TO WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES, BASED ON FORECAST WINDS AT 700 MB APPROACHING 70
KT. THE GFS AND EC BOTH DEPICT THIS, BUT DIFFER A BIT IN LOCATION
AND TIMING. HAVE GONE FOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO, RESULTING
IN PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS IN SOME AREAS OF OVER 50 MPH, AND GUSTS
APPROACHING 70 MPH. SEE THE NPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS. ALTHOUGH
FORECAST GRADIENTS WILL SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY, THE AREA WILL LACK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AS WINDS AT 700MB
WILL BE WESTERLY. HAVE NOT ISSUED AN ADVISORY, AS THE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS JUST BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT PASSES, ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COAST WILL ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH HEAVY SEAS ALONG THE
BEACHES, AS STORM FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE WILL GENERATE HEAVY SEAS.
THE SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE THE MOST EXPOSED, AND THEREFORE
THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAVY SURF. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RUNUP OF THE SURF NEAR PORT ORFORD. THE INHERITED
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY, AS CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE HEAVIEST SEAS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN HIGH TIDES.
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL BE BUILDING AND DIMINISHING AT THE TIMES OF
HIGHEST WATER, AND THEREFORE SOME FLOODING OF PORT FACILITIES AND
LOWER LYING BEACHES IS POSSIBLE. -BPN

PRECIPITATION-WISE, WITH 850 WIND FLOW OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND SPEED OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS, CURRY COUNTY AND SOUTHERN JOSEPHINE
COUNTY ARE PRIMED FOR UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM ARE FORECASTING AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCH OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS.
OUR EXPERIENCE HAS BEEN THAT UNDER THIS FAVORABLE CONDITION, SW
OREGON MOUNTAINS COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNT THAT DOUBLE THE MODEL
FORECAST. THEREFORE, WE HAVE INCREASED THE AMOUNT OVER THE 36
HOUR TIMEFRAME FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 3-4
INCHES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE KALMIOPSIS.

THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS, WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EASTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY COULD SEE AROUND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN. WE ARE FORECASTING
AROUND HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FOR MEDFORD AREA BUT SURROUNDING HILLS
COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE KLAMATH BASIN COULD SEE AROUND
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN WHEREAS NORTH OF DIAMOND LAKE JUNCTION COULD SEE
AROUND ONE INCH. THE GOOSE LAKE BASIN AND MOST OF LAKE COUNTY COULD
RECEIVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THESE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND DOES
NOT INCLUDE LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. -FB

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES THAT THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE WILL SET UP ALONG THE WEST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE RMOP GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF A RIDGE SETTING UP NEAR OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AND THEREFORE PRESENT QUITE A CHALLENGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. IT FOLLOWS THAT THERE IS FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ON MONDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND THIS
WILL KEEP SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CASCADES WESTWARD. AFTER THAT, THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A PACIFIC
TROUGH DEVELOPING OUT NEAR 150 AND 160W. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS40
AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BUILD THE RIDGE STRONGLY WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN A DRYING TREND WITH RELATIVELY MILD FALL WEATHER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND ITS
ENSEMBLES KEEP MORE OF A FLATTER, DIRTY RIDGE WITH DISTURBANCES
RIDING OVER THE TOP. THIS WOULD KEEP AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WESTWARD (AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE OR/CA BORDER) SHOWERY AND COOLER.
WE HAVEN`T MADE LARGE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...AND FELT CONTINUITY WAS BEST UNTIL WE SEE MEANINGFUL
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING, WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING ANY LARGE, IMPACTFUL SYSTEMS TO COME THROUGH DURING THIS
TIME. -SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ021-615-619.
     HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/MAS/JRS



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