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000
FXUS66 KMFR 271642
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
842 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS NOT SHOWN MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY, LIKELY DUE TO OVER SHOOTING OF THE
ACTIVE PRECIPITATION, SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SIGNIFICANT
BANKING OF CLOUDS UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING IS THEREFORE
TERRAIN DRIVEN, BUT AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES TODAY, SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE RESULTING
INSTABILITY TODAY COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
PERHAPS A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO, WHICH WOULD NOT BE UNHEARD OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OVERALL, THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK, WITH SNOW LEVELS
CURRENTLY AT ABOUT 4500 FT, AS SEEN ON AREA WEB CAMERAS. HAVE
MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY, JUST TO BRING
THINGS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION,
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE
MAINLY A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURED AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000 TO 5000 FT
MSL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE SNOW LEVEL DROPS TO
AROUND 3000 FT MSL BUT MAINLY IFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 5 AM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REACH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE
WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE DURING LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A PEAK. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER WEAKER FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DROPPING QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW, IT`S CENTERED IN
WESTERN WASHINGTON, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL CARVE WESTWARD. A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXIST FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING WITH
A DIURNAL RISE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE LOWERING DOWN TO AROUND 3000
FEET SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS SUCH THAT MOST
OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADES THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED ALONG HIGHWAY 140 DUE TO WARMING
ROADS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT, BUT THE TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHERN CAL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. ONE THING THAT WILL WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING WILL BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES, PARTICULARLY IN LAKE COUNTY. THE NAM SHOWS
PRECIPITATION WRAPPING BACK INTO THIS AREA TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO DROP. NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTATED TERRAIN COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES, THEN WINTER HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND USHER IN A COLDER, DRIER AIR MASS.
SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WE`LL SEE TEMPERATURES TAKE
A NOSEDIVE. DRY AND MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM FROM THURSDAY`S AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC/MAP/DW/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 271642
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
842 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS NOT SHOWN MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY, LIKELY DUE TO OVER SHOOTING OF THE
ACTIVE PRECIPITATION, SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SIGNIFICANT
BANKING OF CLOUDS UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING IS THEREFORE
TERRAIN DRIVEN, BUT AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES TODAY, SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE RESULTING
INSTABILITY TODAY COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
PERHAPS A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO, WHICH WOULD NOT BE UNHEARD OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OVERALL, THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK, WITH SNOW LEVELS
CURRENTLY AT ABOUT 4500 FT, AS SEEN ON AREA WEB CAMERAS. HAVE
MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY, JUST TO BRING
THINGS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION,
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE
MAINLY A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURED AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000 TO 5000 FT
MSL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE SNOW LEVEL DROPS TO
AROUND 3000 FT MSL BUT MAINLY IFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 5 AM PST, FRIDAY, 27 FEB, 2015...LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REACH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE
WINDS IN THAT AREA WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE DURING LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A PEAK. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER WEAKER FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DROPPING QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW, IT`S CENTERED IN
WESTERN WASHINGTON, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL CARVE WESTWARD. A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXIST FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING WITH
A DIURNAL RISE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE LOWERING DOWN TO AROUND 3000
FEET SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS SUCH THAT MOST
OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADES THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED ALONG HIGHWAY 140 DUE TO WARMING
ROADS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT, BUT THE TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHERN CAL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. ONE THING THAT WILL WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING WILL BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES, PARTICULARLY IN LAKE COUNTY. THE NAM SHOWS
PRECIPITATION WRAPPING BACK INTO THIS AREA TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO DROP. NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTATED TERRAIN COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES, THEN WINTER HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND USHER IN A COLDER, DRIER AIR MASS.
SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WE`LL SEE TEMPERATURES TAKE
A NOSEDIVE. DRY AND MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM FROM THURSDAY`S AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/CC/MAP/DW/BTL


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 271630
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES NEAR
BURNS/OR AND THE ADVISORY IS WORKING OUT.  LATEST NAM/MET GUIDANCE
SHOWS A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN MORE SNOW LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  TOTAL COMBINED
SNOWFALL MAY EXCEED HEAVY SNOW CRITERIA FOR THE 24 HOURS...BUT
THE BREAK BETWEEN SNOWFALLS ALONG WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF ABOVE-
FREEZING TEMPS SUGGEST TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES MAY BE BETTER THAN
A SINGLE HEAVY SNOW WARNING.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 8 AM PST SHOWS
MAXIMUM CLOUDS AND SNOW RIGHT OVER HARNEY COUNTY.  THE NEW 12Z
NAM SHOWS PCPN DECREASING IN EASTERN HARNEY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAK INSTABILITY...ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND NEAR
THE ID/NV BORDER.  NO FORECAST CHANGES ON THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY...AND SCATTERED MVFR/LOCAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE VFR
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS...
VARIABLE 5-10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE TO ISOLATED MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. SUNDAY WILL BE VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHUTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.  CURRENT GUIDANCE
IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE MOIST AND SLOWER
WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...
WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 271630
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES NEAR
BURNS/OR AND THE ADVISORY IS WORKING OUT.  LATEST NAM/MET GUIDANCE
SHOWS A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN MORE SNOW LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.  TOTAL COMBINED
SNOWFALL MAY EXCEED HEAVY SNOW CRITERIA FOR THE 24 HOURS...BUT
THE BREAK BETWEEN SNOWFALLS ALONG WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF ABOVE-
FREEZING TEMPS SUGGEST TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES MAY BE BETTER THAN
A SINGLE HEAVY SNOW WARNING.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 8 AM PST SHOWS
MAXIMUM CLOUDS AND SNOW RIGHT OVER HARNEY COUNTY.  THE NEW 12Z
NAM SHOWS PCPN DECREASING IN EASTERN HARNEY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAK INSTABILITY...ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND NEAR
THE ID/NV BORDER.  NO FORECAST CHANGES ON THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY...AND SCATTERED MVFR/LOCAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE VFR
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS...
VARIABLE 5-10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE TO ISOLATED MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. SUNDAY WILL BE VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHUTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.  CURRENT GUIDANCE
IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE MOIST AND SLOWER
WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...
WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPDT 271236 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
435 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OREGON. THIS
WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO MOSTLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE
CWA TODAY...AFFECTING CENTRAL OREGON...THE OREGON CASCADE EAST
SLOPES...THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS/BASIN AND THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS WHICH HAS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO AROUND 1000
TO 1500 FEET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIMARILY SNOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY
ACROSS THE CWA SO FAR. HOWEVER...A MORE STEADY AREA OF RAIN IS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WHICH WILL SPREAD
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
COLDER AIR. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNING
BEGAN AT 06Z LAST EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS AND THE OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. CENTRAL OREGON
INCLUDING REDMOND AND BEND WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINNING AT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A COLD BUT DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A
MOSTLY CLEAR DAY WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS INDICATE A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
130W WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS RUN SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
SOUTH IN THIS NORTHERLY FLOW INTO WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AS DOES THE
ECMWF, BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
AMPLITUDE AND THUS MORE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH REMAINING
OVER THE REGION SO I KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND
THUS KEEPS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY
NIGHT ONWARD A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN A DRYING TREND WHICH
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD KYKM KDLS KRDM KBDN
OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 030-060. THE RAIN MAY SPREAD FAR
ENOUGH EAST LATER THIS MORNING TO REACH KPDT KPSC ALW. LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO RDM BDN FRIDAY EVENING WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BY AROUND 04Z/28TH. WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AT 10-20 KTS LATER TODAY.
POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  27  39  21 /  30  30  10   0
ALW  51  30  42  24 /  20  30  10   0
PSC  54  31  47  23 /  30  20  10   0
YKM  51  29  44  23 /  70  30  10   0
HRI  51  29  45  22 /  40  30  10   0
ELN  51  28  44  22 /  70  30  10   0
RDM  44  22  33  12 /  70  60  30   0
LGD  45  26  38  18 /  30  50  20   0
GCD  42  26  34   9 /  90  80  40   0
DLS  50  32  47  27 /  60  40  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/99






000
FXUS66 KPDT 271236 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
435 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OREGON. THIS
WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO MOSTLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE
CWA TODAY...AFFECTING CENTRAL OREGON...THE OREGON CASCADE EAST
SLOPES...THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS/BASIN AND THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS WHICH HAS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO AROUND 1000
TO 1500 FEET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIMARILY SNOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY
ACROSS THE CWA SO FAR. HOWEVER...A MORE STEADY AREA OF RAIN IS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WHICH WILL SPREAD
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
COLDER AIR. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNING
BEGAN AT 06Z LAST EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS AND THE OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. CENTRAL OREGON
INCLUDING REDMOND AND BEND WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINNING AT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A COLD BUT DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A
MOSTLY CLEAR DAY WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS INDICATE A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
130W WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS RUN SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
SOUTH IN THIS NORTHERLY FLOW INTO WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AS DOES THE
ECMWF, BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
AMPLITUDE AND THUS MORE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH REMAINING
OVER THE REGION SO I KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND
THUS KEEPS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY
NIGHT ONWARD A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN A DRYING TREND WHICH
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD KYKM KDLS KRDM KBDN
OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 030-060. THE RAIN MAY SPREAD FAR
ENOUGH EAST LATER THIS MORNING TO REACH KPDT KPSC ALW. LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO RDM BDN FRIDAY EVENING WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BY AROUND 04Z/28TH. WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AT 10-20 KTS LATER TODAY.
POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  27  39  21 /  30  30  10   0
ALW  51  30  42  24 /  20  30  10   0
PSC  54  31  47  23 /  30  20  10   0
YKM  51  29  44  23 /  70  30  10   0
HRI  51  29  45  22 /  40  30  10   0
ELN  51  28  44  22 /  70  30  10   0
RDM  44  22  33  12 /  70  60  30   0
LGD  45  26  38  18 /  30  50  20   0
GCD  42  26  34   9 /  90  80  40   0
DLS  50  32  47  27 /  60  40  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/99







000
FXUS66 KMFR 271103
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
303 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DROPPING QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW, IT`S CENTERED IN
WESTERN WASHINGTON, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL CARVE WESTWARD. A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXIST FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING WITH
A DIURNAL RISE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE LOWERING DOWN TO AROUND 3000
FEET SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS SUCH THAT MOST
OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADES THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED ALONG HIGHWAY 140 DUE TO WARMING
ROADS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT, BUT THE TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHERN CAL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. ONE THING THAT WILL WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING WILL BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES, PARTICULARLY IN LAKE COUNTY. THE NAM SHOWS
PRECIPITATION WRAPPING BACK INTO THIS AREA TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO DROP. NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTATED TERRAIN COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES, THEN WINTER HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND USHER IN A COLDER, DRIER AIR MASS.
SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WE`LL SEE TEMPERATURES TAKE
A NOSEDIVE. DRY AND MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY. -PETRUCELLI


LONG TERM FROM THURSDAY`S AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...IMPROVING
SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET
FRIDAY MORNING. SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, THURSDAY, 26 FEB, 2015... WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

MSC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 271103
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
303 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DROPPING QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW, IT`S CENTERED IN
WESTERN WASHINGTON, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL CARVE WESTWARD. A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXIST FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING WITH
A DIURNAL RISE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE LOWERING DOWN TO AROUND 3000
FEET SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS SUCH THAT MOST
OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADES THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED ALONG HIGHWAY 140 DUE TO WARMING
ROADS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT, BUT THE TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHERN CAL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. ONE THING THAT WILL WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING WILL BE EAST
OF THE CASCADES, PARTICULARLY IN LAKE COUNTY. THE NAM SHOWS
PRECIPITATION WRAPPING BACK INTO THIS AREA TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO DROP. NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTATED TERRAIN COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES, THEN WINTER HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND USHER IN A COLDER, DRIER AIR MASS.
SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WE`LL SEE TEMPERATURES TAKE
A NOSEDIVE. DRY AND MILDER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY. -PETRUCELLI


LONG TERM FROM THURSDAY`S AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...IMPROVING
SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET
FRIDAY MORNING. SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, THURSDAY, 26 FEB, 2015... WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

MSC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KPDT 271101
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OREGON. THIS
WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO MOSTLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE
CWA TODAY...AFFECTING CENTRAL OREGON...THE OREGON CASCADE EAST
SLOPES...THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS/BASIN AND THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS WHICH HAS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO AROUND 1000
TO 1500 FEET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIMARILY SNOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY
ACROSS THE CWA SO FAR. HOWEVER...A MORE STEADY AREA OF RAIN IS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WHICH WILL SPREAD
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
COLDER AIR. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNING
BEGAN AT 06Z LAST EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS AND THE OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. CENTRAL OREGON
INCLUDING REDMOND AND BEND WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINNING AT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A COLD BUT DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A
MOSTLY CLEAR DAY WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS INDICATE A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
130W WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS RUN SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
SOUTH IN THIS NORTHERLY FLOW INTO WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AS DOES THE
ECMWF, BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
AMPLITUDE AND THUS MORE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH REMAINING
OVER THE REGION SO I KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND
THUS KEEPS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY
NIGHT ONWARD A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN A DRYING TREND WHICH
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD YKM
DLS RDM BDN TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 030-060. THE RAIN MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING TO INCLUDE PSC PDT ALW.
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO RDM BDN FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS LESS THAN 10KT TONIGHT THEN INCREASING FROM THE NORTH
AT 10-20KT LATER FRIDAY. 94

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  27  39  21 /  30  30  10   0
ALW  51  30  42  24 /  20  30  10   0
PSC  54  31  47  23 /  30  20  10   0
YKM  51  29  44  23 /  70  30  10   0
HRI  51  29  45  22 /  40  30  10   0
ELN  51  28  44  22 /  70  30  10   0
RDM  44  22  33  12 /  70  60  30   0
LGD  45  26  38  18 /  30  50  20   0
GCD  42  26  34   9 /  90  80  40   0
DLS  50  32  47  27 /  60  40  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/99











000
FXUS66 KPDT 271101
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OREGON. THIS
WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO MOSTLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE
CWA TODAY...AFFECTING CENTRAL OREGON...THE OREGON CASCADE EAST
SLOPES...THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS/BASIN AND THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS WHICH HAS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO AROUND 1000
TO 1500 FEET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIMARILY SNOW. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY
ACROSS THE CWA SO FAR. HOWEVER...A MORE STEADY AREA OF RAIN IS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON WHICH WILL SPREAD
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
COLDER AIR. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNING
BEGAN AT 06Z LAST EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS AND THE OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. CENTRAL OREGON
INCLUDING REDMOND AND BEND WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINNING AT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A COLD BUT DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A
MOSTLY CLEAR DAY WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS INDICATE A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
130W WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS RUN SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
SOUTH IN THIS NORTHERLY FLOW INTO WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AS DOES THE
ECMWF, BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
AMPLITUDE AND THUS MORE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH REMAINING
OVER THE REGION SO I KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND
THUS KEEPS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY
NIGHT ONWARD A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN A DRYING TREND WHICH
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD YKM
DLS RDM BDN TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 030-060. THE RAIN MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING TO INCLUDE PSC PDT ALW.
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO RDM BDN FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS LESS THAN 10KT TONIGHT THEN INCREASING FROM THE NORTH
AT 10-20KT LATER FRIDAY. 94

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  48  27  39  21 /  30  30  10   0
ALW  51  30  42  24 /  20  30  10   0
PSC  54  31  47  23 /  30  20  10   0
YKM  51  29  44  23 /  70  30  10   0
HRI  51  29  45  22 /  40  30  10   0
ELN  51  28  44  22 /  70  30  10   0
RDM  44  22  33  12 /  70  60  30   0
LGD  45  26  38  18 /  30  50  20   0
GCD  42  26  34   9 /  90  80  40   0
DLS  50  32  47  27 /  60  40  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/99











  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 271053
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES TODAY.
COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL OR
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL END BY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BY
SUNRISE WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOW VISIBILITIES AND A
DECENT WIND SHIFT. THUS EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY...AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP
MVFR OR LOW END VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM...BUT ANY THUNDER COULD BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW SOLID THE CLOUDS STAY TODAY. THE LOW STARTS TO
MOVE SOUTH LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE
DECREASING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW. ANY FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS. BEST CHANCE
WILL BE AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...LIKELY MOVING PAST THE
AIRPORT BY 12Z. OTHERWISE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN
ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL HAIL LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AS WELL...
THOUGH CONCERNED THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS A BIT TOO
SOLID...INHIBITING DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH SOME EAST WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE AIRPORT BY EARLY SATURDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WE HAVE SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...INCLUDING THE INNER WATERS. AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THE WINDS
IN THE INNER WATERS MAY EASE BUT THE OUTER WATERS MAY KEEP GOING
THROUGH TODAY. THUS WILL JUST KEEP THE INNER WATERS ADVISORY
THROUGH PART OF THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
WATERS TONIGHT AND REACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY...AND
STILL BE BRISK. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHEAST WINDS AND EAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL GAPS ON
SATURDAY...DECREASING FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TO 9 OR
POSSIBLY 10 FEET. PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TODAY FROM 10 OR 11
SECONDS TO 8 OR 9 SECONDS...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS. HAVE
THEREFORE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS
WELL. SEAS DECREASE FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SEAS COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT AGAIN FROM THE INCREASING
NORTHERLIES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
     ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS
     MORNING TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 271053
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES TODAY.
COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL OR
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL END BY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BY
SUNRISE WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOW VISIBILITIES AND A
DECENT WIND SHIFT. THUS EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY...AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP
MVFR OR LOW END VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM...BUT ANY THUNDER COULD BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW SOLID THE CLOUDS STAY TODAY. THE LOW STARTS TO
MOVE SOUTH LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE
DECREASING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW. ANY FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS. BEST CHANCE
WILL BE AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...LIKELY MOVING PAST THE
AIRPORT BY 12Z. OTHERWISE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN
ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL HAIL LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AS WELL...
THOUGH CONCERNED THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS A BIT TOO
SOLID...INHIBITING DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH SOME EAST WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE AIRPORT BY EARLY SATURDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WE HAVE SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...INCLUDING THE INNER WATERS. AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THE WINDS
IN THE INNER WATERS MAY EASE BUT THE OUTER WATERS MAY KEEP GOING
THROUGH TODAY. THUS WILL JUST KEEP THE INNER WATERS ADVISORY
THROUGH PART OF THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
WATERS TONIGHT AND REACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY...AND
STILL BE BRISK. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHEAST WINDS AND EAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL GAPS ON
SATURDAY...DECREASING FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TO 9 OR
POSSIBLY 10 FEET. PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TODAY FROM 10 OR 11
SECONDS TO 8 OR 9 SECONDS...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS. HAVE
THEREFORE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS
WELL. SEAS DECREASE FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SEAS COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT AGAIN FROM THE INCREASING
NORTHERLIES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
     ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS
     MORNING TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 271053
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
246 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES TODAY.
COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL OR
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL END BY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT REACHED THE COAST JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
HEADED FOR THE CASCADES SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS BRINGING A QUICK BURST
OF PCPN WITH RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS PER HOUR.  SATELLITE AND
MODELS INDICATING A FOLLOWING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LEVELS BUMPED UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
SLIDE BACK DOWN WITH THE INITIAL FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...REACHING AROUND 3500 TO
4000 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSER TO 3000 FT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AN ODOT CAM AT SANTIAM PASS SHOWED WET
ROADS AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 10 PM THU. AT 2 AM ITS 32 AND SNOWING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.  MODEL QPF HAS THE MAIN BATCH
OF PCPN OCCURRING WITH THE MORNING SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE CASCADES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM THIS
MORNING.  ALSO THE LATEST MODEL QPF HAS MORE PCPN FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES THAN EARLIER FORECAST SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.
PCPN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE DONE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR
THUNDER TODAY. BUT IF IT REMAINS TOO CLOUDY IT MAY BE MORE OF A
SMALL HAIL DAY THAN THUNDER.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR /MH

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS BY
SUNRISE WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOW VISIBILITIES AND A
DECENT WIND SHIFT. THUS EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY...AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP
MVFR OR LOW END VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM...BUT ANY THUNDER COULD BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW SOLID THE CLOUDS STAY TODAY. THE LOW STARTS TO
MOVE SOUTH LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE
DECREASING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW. ANY FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS. BEST CHANCE
WILL BE AWAY FROM THE GORGE AND SOUTH TOWARD EUGENE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...LIKELY MOVING PAST THE
AIRPORT BY 12Z. OTHERWISE MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN
ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL HAIL LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AS WELL...
THOUGH CONCERNED THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS A BIT TOO
SOLID...INHIBITING DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH SOME EAST WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE AIRPORT BY EARLY SATURDAY. PT
&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WE HAVE SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE...INCLUDING THE INNER WATERS. AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TODAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THE WINDS
IN THE INNER WATERS MAY EASE BUT THE OUTER WATERS MAY KEEP GOING
THROUGH TODAY. THUS WILL JUST KEEP THE INNER WATERS ADVISORY
THROUGH PART OF THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
WATERS TONIGHT AND REACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY...AND
STILL BE BRISK. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHEAST WINDS AND EAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL GAPS ON
SATURDAY...DECREASING FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TO 9 OR
POSSIBLY 10 FEET. PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TODAY FROM 10 OR 11
SECONDS TO 8 OR 9 SECONDS...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS. HAVE
THEREFORE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS
WELL. SEAS DECREASE FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SEAS COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT AGAIN FROM THE INCREASING
NORTHERLIES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
     ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES ABOVE 5000 FEET.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS
     MORNING TO MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 271032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE
MOIST AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MAINLY IN SE OREGON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT AFTER 28/06Z WINDS
IN THE MAGIC VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENE AT 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-15 KTS...TURNING SSW
AFTER 27/21Z. THEN...AFTER 28/03Z...WINDS ALOFT IN IDAHO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST AT 10-20 KTS AND NW 10-15KTS IN SE OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 271032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE
MOIST AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MAINLY IN SE OREGON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT AFTER 28/06Z WINDS
IN THE MAGIC VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENE AT 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-15 KTS...TURNING SSW
AFTER 27/21Z. THEN...AFTER 28/03Z...WINDS ALOFT IN IDAHO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST AT 10-20 KTS AND NW 10-15KTS IN SE OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 271032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE
MOIST AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MAINLY IN SE OREGON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT AFTER 28/06Z WINDS
IN THE MAGIC VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENE AT 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-15 KTS...TURNING SSW
AFTER 27/21Z. THEN...AFTER 28/03Z...WINDS ALOFT IN IDAHO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST AT 10-20 KTS AND NW 10-15KTS IN SE OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 271032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE
MOIST AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MAINLY IN SE OREGON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT AFTER 28/06Z WINDS
IN THE MAGIC VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENE AT 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-15 KTS...TURNING SSW
AFTER 27/21Z. THEN...AFTER 28/03Z...WINDS ALOFT IN IDAHO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST AT 10-20 KTS AND NW 10-15KTS IN SE OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 271032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE
MOIST AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MAINLY IN SE OREGON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT AFTER 28/06Z WINDS
IN THE MAGIC VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENE AT 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-15 KTS...TURNING SSW
AFTER 27/21Z. THEN...AFTER 28/03Z...WINDS ALOFT IN IDAHO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST AT 10-20 KTS AND NW 10-15KTS IN SE OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 271032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE
MOIST AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MAINLY IN SE OREGON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT AFTER 28/06Z WINDS
IN THE MAGIC VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENE AT 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-15 KTS...TURNING SSW
AFTER 27/21Z. THEN...AFTER 28/03Z...WINDS ALOFT IN IDAHO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST AT 10-20 KTS AND NW 10-15KTS IN SE OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 271032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE
MOIST AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MAINLY IN SE OREGON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT AFTER 28/06Z WINDS
IN THE MAGIC VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENE AT 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-15 KTS...TURNING SSW
AFTER 27/21Z. THEN...AFTER 28/03Z...WINDS ALOFT IN IDAHO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST AT 10-20 KTS AND NW 10-15KTS IN SE OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 271032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED
UPPER LOW OVER NW WA WAS ALREADY SPREADING SNOW NEAR HARNEY-
DESCHTES COUNTY BORDER PER TRIPCHECK WEBCAMS. MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY /EXCEPT NEAR THE NV BORDER/ TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 4500 FT. MORE SNOW THERE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER TEMPS COOL OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS SE OREGON TONIGHT. ON THE SOUTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED UNDER COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
WARMEST HIGHS SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW OF
BURNS TO S OF TWIN FALLS 18Z-06Z TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-EMMETT-IDAHO CITY LINE
AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER NV. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HARNEY COUNTY
SNOW ADVISORY PAST THIS AFTERNOON IF TEMPS LOOK COOL ENOUGH AND
THE LOW TRACK IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE
MOIST AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. PRECIP COULD LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ID/NV/UT BORDERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RIDGE SETTING UP
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY MAINLY IN SE OREGON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS 3500-4000 FT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT AFTER 28/06Z WINDS
IN THE MAGIC VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENE AT 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-15 KTS...TURNING SSW
AFTER 27/21Z. THEN...AFTER 28/03Z...WINDS ALOFT IN IDAHO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST AT 10-20 KTS AND NW 10-15KTS IN SE OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS66 KPDT 270553
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
955 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND SHOWING GOOD ENHANCEMENT ON IR SATELLITE THE PAST FEW HOURS.
AS THIS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES INTO CENTRAL OREGON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. MUCH COLDER SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. BREEZY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD YKM DLS RDM BDN TONIGHT
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 030-060. THE RAIN MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH
EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING TO INCLUDE PSC PDT ALW. LOWERING SNOW LEVELS
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO RDM BDN FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LESS
THAN 10KT TONIGHT THEN INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AT 10-20KT LATER
FRIDAY. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  49  28  43 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  52  31  46 /  30  20  20  10
PSC  37  55  32  50 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  35  52  30  47 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  52  30  48 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  36  52  29  47 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  32  45  23  36 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  30  46  27  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  29  43  27  37 /  50  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/







000
FXUS66 KPDT 270553
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
955 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND SHOWING GOOD ENHANCEMENT ON IR SATELLITE THE PAST FEW HOURS.
AS THIS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES INTO CENTRAL OREGON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. MUCH COLDER SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. BREEZY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. 94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD YKM DLS RDM BDN TONIGHT
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 030-060. THE RAIN MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH
EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING TO INCLUDE PSC PDT ALW. LOWERING SNOW LEVELS
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO RDM BDN FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LESS
THAN 10KT TONIGHT THEN INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AT 10-20KT LATER
FRIDAY. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  49  28  43 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  52  31  46 /  30  20  20  10
PSC  37  55  32  50 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  35  52  30  47 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  52  30  48 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  36  52  29  47 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  32  45  23  36 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  30  46  27  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  29  43  27  37 /  50  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPQR 270526
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
924 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND BE NEAR
OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL OR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL END
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CLOSED OR NEARLY CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SRN VANCOUVER ISLAND SHORTLY
BEFORE 04Z. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTH AND LOCATION FOR
06Z. EARLIER CHECK OF CASCADE WEB CAMS INDICATED A GENERAL SNOW LEVEL
HOVERING JUST UNDER 5000 FEET. HOODOO SKI PARKING LOT...AT 4700
FT...WAS WET AT 02Z...BUT THE CAMERA SHOWED SOME WET FLAKES FALLING.
THE STICKING SNOW LINE LOOKED TO BE A FEW HUNDRED FEET HIGHER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT...AND THEN DOWN THE OREGON COAST FRI. A NWLY
UPPER JET WILL HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT AND DYNAMICS AS THE LOW SAGS
SOUTHWARD. LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY AS A RESULT.  SNOW
LEVELS WILL START AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 5000 FEET...AND LOWER LATE
TONIGHT TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

GFS AND NAM DIFFER ON THE OVERALL QPF...BUT BOTH SEEM TO AGREE THAT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRI. TOTAL
QPF LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES ABOVE 5000 FEET. AREAS FROM 4000 TO 5000 FEET ARE LIKELY TO
GET UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FRI FOR A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND/OR THUNDER.
BELIEVE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
VERSUS THUNDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT AND BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT.
SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS TIME...BUT 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THOSE PLANNING
TO HEAD TO THE MOUNTAINS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RECREATIONAL
ASPECTS OF THIS NEW SNOW SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW
COVERED ROADS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE CASCADES.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY. MODELS ARE IN GREATAGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER REX BLOCK SETTING
UP OVER THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER HOLDS SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE N LATE IN THE DAY. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON TONIGHT...KEEPING CIGS AND VIS ALONG THE COAST PRIMARILY
MVFR AND INLAND SITES A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO
DROP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR ALONG THE COAST...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 18Z. CIGS OVER INLAND SITES SHOULD
STAY PRIMARILY MVFR WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS PROBABLE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR BY MID-MORNING.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EARLY
FRIDAY...SPREADING INLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA OR -DZ. THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR AROUND 15Z FRIDAY...THEN
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR BY 18Z. AFTER 18Z...EXPECT CIGS TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN VFR/MVFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
HEAVY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AT BUOY 29 THIS
EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS EVENING IS MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS IS INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE W/NW TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND PEAK AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE INNER WATERS AS
WELL BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE 20 KTS...THOUGH A COUPLE
GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD START TO WEAKEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE AND INCREASE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS WITH SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

CURRENTLY SEAS ARE AROUND 5 TO 6 FT AND ARE INCREASING THIS
EVENING. SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 8 TO 9 FT FRIDAY MORNING AND
STAY AROUND 8 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
SWELL MOVING IN WITH PERIODS OF AROUND 8 FT FRIDAY WHICH COULD
CREATE SQUARE SEAS MIDDAY FRIDAY. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
SCA FOR THIS YET. SEAS DROP BACK DOWN TO 4 TO 5 FT BY SUNDAY
BEFORE OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS COULD AGAIN
BUILD TO NEAR 10 FT WITH THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
BACK DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN
     LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270400
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS DIMINISHING A BIT ON THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY, BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OUT THERE. MOST AREAS
AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY HAD FROM 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHILE
AREAS ALONG THE COAST SAW THE MOST WITH 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH. I WAS
HARD-PRESSED TO FIND MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST
SIDE. EVEN THOUGH WE`RE CURRENTLY SEEING A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITATION, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT, EXPECT SHOWERS TO PICK UP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS THIS EVENING ARE RUNNING AROUND 5000-5500 FT AND THESE WILL
LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS AND CAN BE VIEWED AT
WSWMFR. THE AIR ALOFT IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE 00Z NAM12
IS HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION WRAPPING BACK INTO EAST SIDE AREAS
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS DROP. WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...IMPROVING SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE
CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
4000 TO 5000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST THURSDAY 26 FEB 2015...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE POURED INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT SNOW LEVELS, WHICH MAY DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE  DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HAVE ERRED ON THE COLDER SIDE SLIGHTLY, BUT
GENERALLY DEPENDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

SNOW LEVELS AS OF THIS WRITING ARE AT ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT, BUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING, THEY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4000 FT AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SNOW TO
IMPACT NEARLY ALL CASCADE PASSES, AS WELL AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ALONG INTERSTATE 5. HOWEVER, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL, AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ROAD TEMPERATURES THERE MAY ALSO IMPEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ROADWAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW EXPECTED NEAR THE DIAMOND LAKE INTERCHANGE, ALONG HIGHWAY
140, AND NEAR CRATER LAKE, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BELOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TO THE EAST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS MODELS
ARE PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SOLUTIONS INVOLVING THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
IN THE LATEST RUNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WE ENTER
THE LONG TERM. -BPN

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
        ORZ027-028-617-621-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

18/18/18




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270400
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS DIMINISHING A BIT ON THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY, BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OUT THERE. MOST AREAS
AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY HAD FROM 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHILE
AREAS ALONG THE COAST SAW THE MOST WITH 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH. I WAS
HARD-PRESSED TO FIND MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST
SIDE. EVEN THOUGH WE`RE CURRENTLY SEEING A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITATION, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT, EXPECT SHOWERS TO PICK UP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS THIS EVENING ARE RUNNING AROUND 5000-5500 FT AND THESE WILL
LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS AND CAN BE VIEWED AT
WSWMFR. THE AIR ALOFT IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE 00Z NAM12
IS HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION WRAPPING BACK INTO EAST SIDE AREAS
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS DROP. WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...IMPROVING SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE
CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
4000 TO 5000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST THURSDAY 26 FEB 2015...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE POURED INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT SNOW LEVELS, WHICH MAY DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE  DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HAVE ERRED ON THE COLDER SIDE SLIGHTLY, BUT
GENERALLY DEPENDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

SNOW LEVELS AS OF THIS WRITING ARE AT ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT, BUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING, THEY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4000 FT AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SNOW TO
IMPACT NEARLY ALL CASCADE PASSES, AS WELL AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ALONG INTERSTATE 5. HOWEVER, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL, AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ROAD TEMPERATURES THERE MAY ALSO IMPEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ROADWAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW EXPECTED NEAR THE DIAMOND LAKE INTERCHANGE, ALONG HIGHWAY
140, AND NEAR CRATER LAKE, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BELOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TO THE EAST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS MODELS
ARE PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SOLUTIONS INVOLVING THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
IN THE LATEST RUNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WE ENTER
THE LONG TERM. -BPN

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
        ORZ027-028-617-621-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

18/18/18




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270400
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS DIMINISHING A BIT ON THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY, BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OUT THERE. MOST AREAS
AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY HAD FROM 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHILE
AREAS ALONG THE COAST SAW THE MOST WITH 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH. I WAS
HARD-PRESSED TO FIND MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST
SIDE. EVEN THOUGH WE`RE CURRENTLY SEEING A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITATION, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT, EXPECT SHOWERS TO PICK UP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS THIS EVENING ARE RUNNING AROUND 5000-5500 FT AND THESE WILL
LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS AND CAN BE VIEWED AT
WSWMFR. THE AIR ALOFT IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE 00Z NAM12
IS HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION WRAPPING BACK INTO EAST SIDE AREAS
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS DROP. WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...IMPROVING SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE
CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
4000 TO 5000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST THURSDAY 26 FEB 2015...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE POURED INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT SNOW LEVELS, WHICH MAY DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE  DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HAVE ERRED ON THE COLDER SIDE SLIGHTLY, BUT
GENERALLY DEPENDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

SNOW LEVELS AS OF THIS WRITING ARE AT ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT, BUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING, THEY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4000 FT AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SNOW TO
IMPACT NEARLY ALL CASCADE PASSES, AS WELL AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ALONG INTERSTATE 5. HOWEVER, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL, AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ROAD TEMPERATURES THERE MAY ALSO IMPEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ROADWAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW EXPECTED NEAR THE DIAMOND LAKE INTERCHANGE, ALONG HIGHWAY
140, AND NEAR CRATER LAKE, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BELOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TO THE EAST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS MODELS
ARE PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SOLUTIONS INVOLVING THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
IN THE LATEST RUNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WE ENTER
THE LONG TERM. -BPN

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
        ORZ027-028-617-621-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

18/18/18




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270400
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS DIMINISHING A BIT ON THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY, BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OUT THERE. MOST AREAS
AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY HAD FROM 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHILE
AREAS ALONG THE COAST SAW THE MOST WITH 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH. I WAS
HARD-PRESSED TO FIND MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST
SIDE. EVEN THOUGH WE`RE CURRENTLY SEEING A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITATION, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT, EXPECT SHOWERS TO PICK UP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS THIS EVENING ARE RUNNING AROUND 5000-5500 FT AND THESE WILL
LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS AND CAN BE VIEWED AT
WSWMFR. THE AIR ALOFT IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE 00Z NAM12
IS HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION WRAPPING BACK INTO EAST SIDE AREAS
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS DROP. WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...IMPROVING SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE
CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
4000 TO 5000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST THURSDAY 26 FEB 2015...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE POURED INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT SNOW LEVELS, WHICH MAY DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE  DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HAVE ERRED ON THE COLDER SIDE SLIGHTLY, BUT
GENERALLY DEPENDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

SNOW LEVELS AS OF THIS WRITING ARE AT ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT, BUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING, THEY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4000 FT AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SNOW TO
IMPACT NEARLY ALL CASCADE PASSES, AS WELL AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ALONG INTERSTATE 5. HOWEVER, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL, AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ROAD TEMPERATURES THERE MAY ALSO IMPEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ROADWAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW EXPECTED NEAR THE DIAMOND LAKE INTERCHANGE, ALONG HIGHWAY
140, AND NEAR CRATER LAKE, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BELOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TO THE EAST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS MODELS
ARE PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SOLUTIONS INVOLVING THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
IN THE LATEST RUNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WE ENTER
THE LONG TERM. -BPN

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
        ORZ027-028-617-621-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

18/18/18




000
FXUS66 KPDT 270357
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
755 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND SHOWING GOOD ENHANCEMENT ON IR SATELLITE THE PAST FEW HOURS.
AS THIS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES INTO CENTRAL OREGON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. MUCH COLDER SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. BREEZY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT
ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS.
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/08
OR 27/10 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH KPSC SEEING
VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AT THESE TWO SITES WILL
VARY BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL. KPDT WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  49  28  43 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  52  31  46 /  30  20  20  10
PSC  37  55  32  50 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  35  52  30  47 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  52  30  48 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  36  52  29  47 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  32  45  23  36 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  30  46  27  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  29  43  27  37 /  50  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/





000
FXUS66 KPDT 270357
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
755 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND SHOWING GOOD ENHANCEMENT ON IR SATELLITE THE PAST FEW HOURS.
AS THIS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES INTO CENTRAL OREGON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. MUCH COLDER SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. BREEZY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT
ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS.
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/08
OR 27/10 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH KPSC SEEING
VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AT THESE TWO SITES WILL
VARY BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL. KPDT WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  49  28  43 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  52  31  46 /  30  20  20  10
PSC  37  55  32  50 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  35  52  30  47 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  52  30  48 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  36  52  29  47 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  32  45  23  36 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  30  46  27  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  29  43  27  37 /  50  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/





000
FXUS66 KPDT 270357
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
755 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND SHOWING GOOD ENHANCEMENT ON IR SATELLITE THE PAST FEW HOURS.
AS THIS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES INTO CENTRAL OREGON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. MUCH COLDER SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. BREEZY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT
ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS.
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/08
OR 27/10 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH KPSC SEEING
VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AT THESE TWO SITES WILL
VARY BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL. KPDT WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  49  28  43 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  52  31  46 /  30  20  20  10
PSC  37  55  32  50 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  35  52  30  47 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  52  30  48 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  36  52  29  47 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  32  45  23  36 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  30  46  27  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  29  43  27  37 /  50  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/





000
FXUS66 KPDT 270357
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
755 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER
ISLAND SHOWING GOOD ENHANCEMENT ON IR SATELLITE THE PAST FEW HOURS.
AS THIS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES INTO CENTRAL OREGON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. MUCH COLDER SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. BREEZY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT
ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS.
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/08
OR 27/10 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH KPSC SEEING
VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AT THESE TWO SITES WILL
VARY BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL. KPDT WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  49  28  43 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  52  31  46 /  30  20  20  10
PSC  37  55  32  50 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  35  52  30  47 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  52  30  48 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  36  52  29  47 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  32  45  23  36 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  30  46  27  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  29  43  27  37 /  50  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/





000
FXUS65 KBOI 270346
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
846 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH
OUR CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT KCBX
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ACTIVITY DECREASING AS OF 8 PM MST.  MODELS
BRING A CANADIAN WAVE DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND FORM
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER OREGON SATURDAY.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND OUR CWA
WILL BECOME DRIER FROM THE NORTH.  THE LOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR PCPN IN OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY IN OREGON
ZONES AND SOUTHERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES.  MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH QPF
FOR A SNOW ADVISORY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
THE OWYHEES.  ANOTHER WAVE LATE MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TUESDAY UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
...POSSIBLY THE COLDEST WE HAVE SEEN SINCE EARLY JANUARY...BUT THE
COLD SURGE SHOULD BE BRIEF.  CURRENT FORELAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME
...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON AFTER 12Z FRIDAY AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4K FT MSL. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. SURFACE WINDS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-15 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOUTH OF A KBNO-KBOI-KSNT
LINE...ENDING SATURDAY EVENING. CLEAR AND DRY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT AND INTO OREGON
TOMORROW...THEN INTO NRN CA AND NW NV FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ON INTO CENTRAL CA SATURDAY. AS IT DOES THIS...MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR WILL BE BROUGHT OVER THE AREA. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT ALL BUT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS...AND EVEN THERE WE COULD
SEE A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY MAINLY TO OUR WEST...ENERGY
WILL SWING EAST AND PASS OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE WILL BE A
PIVOT POINT AT WHICH THIS ENERGY STALLS BEFORE MOVING BACK AWAY
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
PIVOT POINT...WHICH IS ACTUALLY MORE OF A LINE THAN A POINT...
WILL BE OVER THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. ENOUGH SNOW SHOULD FALL IN THE
OWYHEES TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...AND SO WE
HAVE ISSUED ONE FROM NOON TOMORROW THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND THE EXACT
DETAILS OF WHERE THE PIVOT POINT...OR LINE...DEVELOPS ARE IMPOSSIBLE
TO PIN DOWN WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE MUCH IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENT.  IF LATER FORECASTS INDICATE MORE SNOW IN THESE SURROUNDING
AREAS...ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WOULD BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY...FALLING A FEW DEGREES
IN MOST AREAS SATURDAY. READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT OWING TO CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A CONTINUING COLD
PATTERN IS SUPPORTED BY ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY MODELS SHOW THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALREADY DIGGING
SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...BRINGING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY JET PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...BETWEEN SEPARATE AREAS OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...
AS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270346
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
846 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH
OUR CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT KCBX
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ACTIVITY DECREASING AS OF 8 PM MST.  MODELS
BRING A CANADIAN WAVE DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND FORM
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER OREGON SATURDAY.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND OUR CWA
WILL BECOME DRIER FROM THE NORTH.  THE LOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR PCPN IN OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY IN OREGON
ZONES AND SOUTHERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES.  MODELS GENERATE ENOUGH QPF
FOR A SNOW ADVISORY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
THE OWYHEES.  ANOTHER WAVE LATE MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TUESDAY UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
...POSSIBLY THE COLDEST WE HAVE SEEN SINCE EARLY JANUARY...BUT THE
COLD SURGE SHOULD BE BRIEF.  CURRENT FORELAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME
...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON AFTER 12Z FRIDAY AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4K FT MSL. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. SURFACE WINDS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-15 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOUTH OF A KBNO-KBOI-KSNT
LINE...ENDING SATURDAY EVENING. CLEAR AND DRY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT AND INTO OREGON
TOMORROW...THEN INTO NRN CA AND NW NV FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ON INTO CENTRAL CA SATURDAY. AS IT DOES THIS...MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR WILL BE BROUGHT OVER THE AREA. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT ALL BUT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS...AND EVEN THERE WE COULD
SEE A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY MAINLY TO OUR WEST...ENERGY
WILL SWING EAST AND PASS OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE WILL BE A
PIVOT POINT AT WHICH THIS ENERGY STALLS BEFORE MOVING BACK AWAY
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
PIVOT POINT...WHICH IS ACTUALLY MORE OF A LINE THAN A POINT...
WILL BE OVER THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. ENOUGH SNOW SHOULD FALL IN THE
OWYHEES TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...AND SO WE
HAVE ISSUED ONE FROM NOON TOMORROW THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND THE EXACT
DETAILS OF WHERE THE PIVOT POINT...OR LINE...DEVELOPS ARE IMPOSSIBLE
TO PIN DOWN WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE MUCH IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENT.  IF LATER FORECASTS INDICATE MORE SNOW IN THESE SURROUNDING
AREAS...ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WOULD BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY...FALLING A FEW DEGREES
IN MOST AREAS SATURDAY. READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT OWING TO CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A CONTINUING COLD
PATTERN IS SUPPORTED BY ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY MODELS SHOW THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALREADY DIGGING
SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...BRINGING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY JET PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...BETWEEN SEPARATE AREAS OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...
AS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270002
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
402 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE POURED INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT SNOW LEVELS, WHICH MAY DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE  DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HAVE ERRED ON THE COLDER SIDE SLIGHTLY, BUT
GENERALLY DEPENDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

SNOW LEVELS AS OF THIS WRITING ARE AT ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT, BUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING, THEY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4000 FT AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SNOW TO
IMPACT NEARLY ALL CASCADE PASSES, AS WELL AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ALONG INTERSTATE 5. HOWEVER, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL, AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ROAD TEMPERATURES THERE MAY ALSO IMPEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ROADWAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW EXPECTED NEAR THE DIAMOND LAKE INTERCHANGE, ALONG HIGHWAY
140, AND NEAR CRATER LAKE, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BELOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TO THE EAST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS MODELS
ARE PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SOLUTIONS INVOLVING THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
IN THE LATEST RUNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WE ENTER
THE LONG TERM. -BPN

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...IMPROVING SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE
CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
4000 TO 5000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, THURSDAY, 26 FEB, 2015... WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/BTL/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270002
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
402 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE POURED INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT SNOW LEVELS, WHICH MAY DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE  DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HAVE ERRED ON THE COLDER SIDE SLIGHTLY, BUT
GENERALLY DEPENDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

SNOW LEVELS AS OF THIS WRITING ARE AT ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT, BUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING, THEY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4000 FT AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SNOW TO
IMPACT NEARLY ALL CASCADE PASSES, AS WELL AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ALONG INTERSTATE 5. HOWEVER, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL, AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ROAD TEMPERATURES THERE MAY ALSO IMPEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ROADWAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW EXPECTED NEAR THE DIAMOND LAKE INTERCHANGE, ALONG HIGHWAY
140, AND NEAR CRATER LAKE, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BELOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TO THE EAST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS MODELS
ARE PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SOLUTIONS INVOLVING THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
IN THE LATEST RUNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WE ENTER
THE LONG TERM. -BPN

LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...IMPROVING SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE
CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
4000 TO 5000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 4 PM PST, THURSDAY, 26 FEB, 2015... WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/BTL/JRS



000
FXUS66 KPDT 262345 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT
ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS.
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/08
OR 27/10 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH KPSC SEEING
VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AT THESE TWO SITES WILL
VARY BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL. KPDT WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  48  28  42 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  51  31  46 /  20  20  20  10
PSC  37  54  33  49 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  34  46  30  45 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  50  30  47 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  37  50  29  48 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  31  44  21  35 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  29  46  26  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  31  44  29  37 /  40  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/90/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 262345 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT
ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS.
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/08
OR 27/10 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH KPSC SEEING
VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AT THESE TWO SITES WILL
VARY BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL. KPDT WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  48  28  42 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  51  31  46 /  20  20  20  10
PSC  37  54  33  49 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  34  46  30  45 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  50  30  47 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  37  50  29  48 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  31  44  21  35 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  29  46  26  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  31  44  29  37 /  40  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/90/90







000
FXUS66 KPDT 262345 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT
ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS.
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/08
OR 27/10 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH KPSC SEEING
VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AT THESE TWO SITES WILL
VARY BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL. KPDT WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  48  28  42 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  51  31  46 /  20  20  20  10
PSC  37  54  33  49 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  34  46  30  45 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  50  30  47 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  37  50  29  48 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  31  44  21  35 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  29  46  26  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  31  44  29  37 /  40  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/90/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 262345 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
344 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT
ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS.
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/08
OR 27/10 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH KPSC SEEING
VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AT THESE TWO SITES WILL
VARY BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL. KPDT WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  48  28  42 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  51  31  46 /  20  20  20  10
PSC  37  54  33  49 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  34  46  30  45 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  50  30  47 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  37  50  29  48 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  31  44  21  35 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  29  46  26  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  31  44  29  37 /  40  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/90/90







000
FXUS66 KMFR 262304
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE POURED INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT SNOW LEVELS, WHICH MAY DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE  DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HAVE ERRED ON THE COLDER SIDE SLIGHTLY, BUT
GENERALLY DEPENDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

SNOW LEVELS AS OF THIS WRITING ARE AT ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT, BUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING, THEY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4000 FT AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SNOW TO
IMPACT NEARLY ALL CASCADE PASSES, AS WELL AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ALONG INTERSTATE 5. HOWEVER, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL, AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ROAD TEMPERATURES THERE MAY ALSO IMPEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ROADWAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW EXPECTED NEAR THE DIAMOND LAKE INTERCHANGE, ALONG HIGHWAY
140, AND NEAR CRATER LAKE, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BELOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TO THE EAST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS MODELS
ARE PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SOLUTIONS INVOLVING THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
IN THE LATEST RUNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WE ENTER
THE LONG TERM. -BPN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST
SIDE TODAY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTH AND WESTWARD.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THESE LOWERING VALLEY CIGS. ALONG
THE COAST SOME IFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
TERRAIN TO BECOME OBSCURED IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS/LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEST SIDE, THE EAST SIDE, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ON FRIDAY MORNING. -BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PST, THURSDAY, 26 FEB, 2015... WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. BTL/KEENE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4
     AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BPN/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 262304
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE POURED INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT SNOW LEVELS, WHICH MAY DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE  DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HAVE ERRED ON THE COLDER SIDE SLIGHTLY, BUT
GENERALLY DEPENDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

SNOW LEVELS AS OF THIS WRITING ARE AT ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT, BUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING, THEY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4000 FT AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SNOW TO
IMPACT NEARLY ALL CASCADE PASSES, AS WELL AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ALONG INTERSTATE 5. HOWEVER, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL, AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ROAD TEMPERATURES THERE MAY ALSO IMPEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ROADWAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW EXPECTED NEAR THE DIAMOND LAKE INTERCHANGE, ALONG HIGHWAY
140, AND NEAR CRATER LAKE, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BELOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TO THE EAST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS MODELS
ARE PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SOLUTIONS INVOLVING THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
IN THE LATEST RUNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WE ENTER
THE LONG TERM. -BPN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST
SIDE TODAY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTH AND WESTWARD.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THESE LOWERING VALLEY CIGS. ALONG
THE COAST SOME IFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
TERRAIN TO BECOME OBSCURED IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS/LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEST SIDE, THE EAST SIDE, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ON FRIDAY MORNING. -BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PST, THURSDAY, 26 FEB, 2015... WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. BTL/KEENE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4
     AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BPN/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 262304
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE POURED INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO SNOW.
THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT SNOW LEVELS, WHICH MAY DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE  DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HAVE ERRED ON THE COLDER SIDE SLIGHTLY, BUT
GENERALLY DEPENDED ON A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

SNOW LEVELS AS OF THIS WRITING ARE AT ABOUT 5000 TO 6000 FT, BUT BY
TOMORROW MORNING, THEY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 4000 FT AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SNOW TO
IMPACT NEARLY ALL CASCADE PASSES, AS WELL AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT
ALONG INTERSTATE 5. HOWEVER, WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CASCADES SHOULD RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL, AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT. ROAD TEMPERATURES THERE MAY ALSO IMPEDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ROADWAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW EXPECTED NEAR THE DIAMOND LAKE INTERCHANGE, ALONG HIGHWAY
140, AND NEAR CRATER LAKE, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BELOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT, WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH EXPECTED WEST OF THE
CASCADES, AND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TO THE EAST. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE COULD PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, RIDGING WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS MODELS
ARE PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SOLUTIONS INVOLVING THIS SYSTEM, BUT HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
IN THE LATEST RUNS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD ENTER THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WE ENTER
THE LONG TERM. -BPN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY, MARCH 2ND THROUGH THU NIGHT, MARCH 6TH... A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH DETAILS RELATED TO THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF
IT. SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOW MUCH
MOISTURE IT WILL PICK UP, AND HOW DEEP THE COLD POOL WILL BE WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT
WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AT 500MB. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND DURATION WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM NOW APPEAR LESSER THAN
THEY DID 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS WE OFTEN SEE WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE, PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW, SO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES SUCH AS WILLAMETTE, DIAMOND LAKE, AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD BE AFFECTED.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS
IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE
FRUIT GROWING AREAS CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATING TO SPRING-LIKE.
BTL


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST
SIDE TODAY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTH AND WESTWARD.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THESE LOWERING VALLEY CIGS. ALONG
THE COAST SOME IFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
TERRAIN TO BECOME OBSCURED IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS/LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEST SIDE, THE EAST SIDE, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ON FRIDAY MORNING. -BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PST, THURSDAY, 26 FEB, 2015... WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. BTL/KEENE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028-617-621-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4
     AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BPN/BTL




000
FXUS66 KPDT 262228
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
228 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS
OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY
STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/07 OR 27/09 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND
KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC, KPDT AND KALW TO
REMAIN VFR WITH KPDT AND KPSC SEEING VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. ALSO KPDT MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD
DUE TO UPSLOPE AFFECTS. CIGS AT THESE THREE SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN
4500 AND 11000 FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS
DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  48  28  42 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  51  31  46 /  20  20  20  10
PSC  37  54  33  49 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  34  46  30  45 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  50  30  47 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  37  50  29  48 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  31  44  21  35 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  29  46  26  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  31  44  29  37 /  40  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/90/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 262228
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
228 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS
OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY
STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/07 OR 27/09 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND
KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC, KPDT AND KALW TO
REMAIN VFR WITH KPDT AND KPSC SEEING VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. ALSO KPDT MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD
DUE TO UPSLOPE AFFECTS. CIGS AT THESE THREE SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN
4500 AND 11000 FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS
DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  48  28  42 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  51  31  46 /  20  20  20  10
PSC  37  54  33  49 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  34  46  30  45 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  50  30  47 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  37  50  29  48 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  31  44  21  35 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  29  46  26  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  31  44  29  37 /  40  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/90/90







000
FXUS66 KPDT 262228
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
228 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND
THEN CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW
IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES...OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 4500 FEET...AND FALL TO AROUND
3000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES AND IN THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET AND PASS
LEVELS...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL OREGON...AND ALSO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE JOHN DAY BASIN...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT POPULATION
CENTERS AND TRAVEL...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...AS
WELL AS A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND IN
WALLOWA COUNTY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BACK TO AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...BUT THEN FALL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THESE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL THEN ACT TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DOWNTOWN BEND...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. COBB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MID RANGE MODELS THAT A WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL PULL MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE
PACNW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
AREAWIDE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
BASIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT WITH NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SLOPES
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE INDUCED ENHANCEMENT. THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER BASIN, THE YAKIMA VALLEY AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH THE
REGION BEING UNDER A COLD, DRY NORTH FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE REGION. 90

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS
OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS/VIS. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY
STARTING AFTER EITHER 27/07 OR 27/09 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND
KRDM COULD BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC, KPDT AND KALW TO
REMAIN VFR WITH KPDT AND KPSC SEEING VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. ALSO KPDT MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD
DUE TO UPSLOPE AFFECTS. CIGS AT THESE THREE SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN
4500 AND 11000 FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS
DURING THIS PERIOD. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  48  28  42 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  38  51  31  46 /  20  20  20  10
PSC  37  54  33  49 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  34  46  30  45 /  60  70  20  10
HRI  37  50  30  47 /  30  40  20  10
ELN  37  50  29  48 /  60  70  30  10
RDM  31  44  21  35 /  60  60  50  30
LGD  29  46  26  41 /  30  30  30  20
GCD  31  44  29  37 /  40  90  70  40
DLS  41  51  33  50 /  80  60  30  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ505.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ503.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/90/90








000
FXUS66 KPQR 262213
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND BE NEAR
OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLE SUNSHINE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WEAKER THAN THE FIRST MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO NW WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF INTEREST
IS JUST OFFSHORE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF OPEN-CELLED CUMULUS OVER THE NE PACIFIC
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS INDICATE THAT THE
COLD AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH.

LOW LAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY AS THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
TROUGH AND UPPER JET...SLIDE SOUTHWARD. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE 5000 FEET...AND LOWER LATE TONIGHT TO AROUND 4000 FEET
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM WHEN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+KT JET STREAK WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS WILL POSITION NW OREGON UNDER THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED LIFT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES WARRANTING A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET WHERE 4 TO 8
INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
AREAS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FT MAY MEASURE UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT SMALL HAIL
EMBEDDED IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SNOW AT AND BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW FALL RATES
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS TIME...BUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THOSE PLANNING TO HEAD TO THE
MOUNTAINS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RECREATIONAL ASPECTS OF THIS NEW
SNOW SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW COVERED ROADS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE
CASCADES. TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST WILL BE MORE MODERATE WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT
AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST
COAST. DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. TJ

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY AND WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR INLAND AND IFR AT THE
COAST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT...MAINTAINING MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND AND BRINGING
CIGS UP TO MVFR AT COASTAL SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH
SLIGHT...THE THUNDER THREAT WILL SPREAD INLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY MAY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR VIS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA OR -DZ.
CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT KEEP MVFR CIG WITH A
CHANCE FOR IFR CIG AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH WIND TO SPEAK OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH BUOY 29
REPORTING SW AT 4 KT. HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE W/NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY...BUT
THERE
IS ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE AND INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONE MORE ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOWEN/PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 262213
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND BE NEAR
OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLE SUNSHINE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WEAKER THAN THE FIRST MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO NW WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF INTEREST
IS JUST OFFSHORE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF OPEN-CELLED CUMULUS OVER THE NE PACIFIC
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS INDICATE THAT THE
COLD AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH.

LOW LAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY AS THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
TROUGH AND UPPER JET...SLIDE SOUTHWARD. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE 5000 FEET...AND LOWER LATE TONIGHT TO AROUND 4000 FEET
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM WHEN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+KT JET STREAK WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS WILL POSITION NW OREGON UNDER THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED LIFT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES WARRANTING A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET WHERE 4 TO 8
INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
AREAS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FT MAY MEASURE UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT SMALL HAIL
EMBEDDED IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SNOW AT AND BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW FALL RATES
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS TIME...BUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THOSE PLANNING TO HEAD TO THE
MOUNTAINS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RECREATIONAL ASPECTS OF THIS NEW
SNOW SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW COVERED ROADS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE
CASCADES. TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST WILL BE MORE MODERATE WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT
AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST
COAST. DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. TJ

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY AND WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR INLAND AND IFR AT THE
COAST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT...MAINTAINING MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND AND BRINGING
CIGS UP TO MVFR AT COASTAL SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH
SLIGHT...THE THUNDER THREAT WILL SPREAD INLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY MAY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR VIS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA OR -DZ.
CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT KEEP MVFR CIG WITH A
CHANCE FOR IFR CIG AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH WIND TO SPEAK OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH BUOY 29
REPORTING SW AT 4 KT. HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE W/NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY...BUT
THERE
IS ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE AND INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONE MORE ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOWEN/PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 262213
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND BE NEAR
OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLE SUNSHINE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WEAKER THAN THE FIRST MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO NW WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OF INTEREST
IS JUST OFFSHORE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF OPEN-CELLED CUMULUS OVER THE NE PACIFIC
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS INDICATE THAT THE
COLD AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH.

LOW LAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY AS THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
TROUGH AND UPPER JET...SLIDE SOUTHWARD. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND
OR JUST ABOVE 5000 FEET...AND LOWER LATE TONIGHT TO AROUND 4000 FEET
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM WHEN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+KT JET STREAK WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS WILL POSITION NW OREGON UNDER THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED LIFT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES WARRANTING A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET WHERE 4 TO 8
INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
AREAS BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FT MAY MEASURE UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT SMALL HAIL
EMBEDDED IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SNOW AT AND BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW FALL RATES
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS TIME...BUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THOSE PLANNING TO HEAD TO THE
MOUNTAINS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RECREATIONAL ASPECTS OF THIS NEW
SNOW SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW COVERED ROADS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH RADIATION COOLING FROM ANY CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S FOR THE
CASCADES. TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST WILL BE MORE MODERATE WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT
AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST
COAST. DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. TJ

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PREVENT THE UPPER REX BLOCK FROM COMPLETELY FORMING. THEREFORE THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE ONE WE ARE
EXPECTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER SNOW
LEVELS...AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIGHTER...THE TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS MAY BE
GREATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
AS THERE IS MODERATE MODEL VARIABILITY AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY
WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY AND WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR INLAND AND IFR AT THE
COAST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT...MAINTAINING MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND AND BRINGING
CIGS UP TO MVFR AT COASTAL SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH
SLIGHT...THE THUNDER THREAT WILL SPREAD INLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY MAY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR VIS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA OR -DZ.
CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT KEEP MVFR CIG WITH A
CHANCE FOR IFR CIG AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A HEAVY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH WIND TO SPEAK OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH BUOY 29
REPORTING SW AT 4 KT. HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE W/NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY...BUT
THERE
IS ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE AND INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONE MORE ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOWEN/PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 262205
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
305 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT AND INTO OREGON
TOMORROW...THEN INTO NRN CA AND NW NV FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ON INTO CENTRAL CA SATURDAY. AS IT DOES THIS...MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR WILL BE BROUGHT OVER THE AREA. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT ALL BUT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS...AND EVEN THERE WE COULD
SEE A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY MAINLY TO OUR WEST...ENERGY
WILL SWING EAST AND PASS OVER. THERE WILL BE A PIVOT POINT AT
WHICH THIS ENERGY STALLS BEFORE MOVING BACK AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE PIVOT POINT...WHICH
IS ACTUALLY MORE OF A LINE THAN A POINT...WILL BE OVER THE OWYHEE
MOUNTAINS. ENOUGH SNOW SHOULD FALL IN THE OWYHEES TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...AND SO WE HAVE ISSUED ONE FROM
NOON TOMORROW THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVEL IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND THE EXACT DETAILS OF
WHERE THE PIVOT POINT...OR LINE...DEVELOPS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN
DOWN WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE MUCH IN ADVANCE OF THE EVENT.
IF LATER FORECASTS INDICATE MORE SNOW IN THESE SURROUNDING AREAS...
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WOULD BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY...FALLING A FEW DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS SATURDAY. READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT OWING TO CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A CONTINUING COLD
PATTERN IS SUPPORTED BY ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY MODELS SHOW THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALREADY DIGGING
SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...BRINGING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY JET PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...BETWEEN SEPARATE AREAS OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...
AS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS...
4K-5K FT MSL. EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 00Z.
WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 262205
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
305 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT AND INTO OREGON
TOMORROW...THEN INTO NRN CA AND NW NV FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ON INTO CENTRAL CA SATURDAY. AS IT DOES THIS...MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR WILL BE BROUGHT OVER THE AREA. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT ALL BUT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS...AND EVEN THERE WE COULD
SEE A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY MAINLY TO OUR WEST...ENERGY
WILL SWING EAST AND PASS OVER. THERE WILL BE A PIVOT POINT AT
WHICH THIS ENERGY STALLS BEFORE MOVING BACK AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE PIVOT POINT...WHICH
IS ACTUALLY MORE OF A LINE THAN A POINT...WILL BE OVER THE OWYHEE
MOUNTAINS. ENOUGH SNOW SHOULD FALL IN THE OWYHEES TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...AND SO WE HAVE ISSUED ONE FROM
NOON TOMORROW THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVEL IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND THE EXACT DETAILS OF
WHERE THE PIVOT POINT...OR LINE...DEVELOPS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN
DOWN WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE MUCH IN ADVANCE OF THE EVENT.
IF LATER FORECASTS INDICATE MORE SNOW IN THESE SURROUNDING AREAS...
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WOULD BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY...FALLING A FEW DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS SATURDAY. READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT OWING TO CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A CONTINUING COLD
PATTERN IS SUPPORTED BY ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY MODELS SHOW THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALREADY DIGGING
SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...BRINGING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY JET PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...BETWEEN SEPARATE AREAS OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...
AS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS...
4K-5K FT MSL. EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 00Z.
WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 262205
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
305 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT AND INTO OREGON
TOMORROW...THEN INTO NRN CA AND NW NV FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ON INTO CENTRAL CA SATURDAY. AS IT DOES THIS...MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR WILL BE BROUGHT OVER THE AREA. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT ALL BUT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS...AND EVEN THERE WE COULD
SEE A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY MAINLY TO OUR WEST...ENERGY
WILL SWING EAST AND PASS OVER. THERE WILL BE A PIVOT POINT AT
WHICH THIS ENERGY STALLS BEFORE MOVING BACK AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE PIVOT POINT...WHICH
IS ACTUALLY MORE OF A LINE THAN A POINT...WILL BE OVER THE OWYHEE
MOUNTAINS. ENOUGH SNOW SHOULD FALL IN THE OWYHEES TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...AND SO WE HAVE ISSUED ONE FROM
NOON TOMORROW THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVEL IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND THE EXACT DETAILS OF
WHERE THE PIVOT POINT...OR LINE...DEVELOPS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN
DOWN WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE MUCH IN ADVANCE OF THE EVENT.
IF LATER FORECASTS INDICATE MORE SNOW IN THESE SURROUNDING AREAS...
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WOULD BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY...FALLING A FEW DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS SATURDAY. READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT OWING TO CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A CONTINUING COLD
PATTERN IS SUPPORTED BY ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY MODELS SHOW THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALREADY DIGGING
SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...BRINGING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY JET PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...BETWEEN SEPARATE AREAS OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...
AS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS...
4K-5K FT MSL. EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 00Z.
WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261748 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
948 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FROM
MEACHAM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND INTO THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
AND GRANT COUNTY...ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN. AS THE LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA TRAVELS DOWN THE COAST SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL INITIALLY BE
OVER THE AREA RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL TO 2500 TO 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL STAY
MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
IMPACT ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER
EITHER 27/07 OR 27/09 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC, KPDT AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH
KPDT AND KPSC SEEING VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALSO KPDT
MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD DUE TO UPSLOPE
AFFECTS. CIGS AT THESE THREE SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN 4500 AND 11000
FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. 90

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  50  30  40  30
PSC  55  36  51  31 /  30  40  30  20
YKM  52  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  53  36  49  30 /  30  50  50  30
ELN  54  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  49  31  43  23 /  40  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  46  29  41  28 /  70  60  70  60
DLS  55  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 261748 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
948 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FROM
MEACHAM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND INTO THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
AND GRANT COUNTY...ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN. AS THE LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA TRAVELS DOWN THE COAST SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL INITIALLY BE
OVER THE AREA RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL TO 2500 TO 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL STAY
MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
IMPACT ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER
EITHER 27/07 OR 27/09 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC, KPDT AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH
KPDT AND KPSC SEEING VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALSO KPDT
MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD DUE TO UPSLOPE
AFFECTS. CIGS AT THESE THREE SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN 4500 AND 11000
FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. 90

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  50  30  40  30
PSC  55  36  51  31 /  30  40  30  20
YKM  52  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  53  36  49  30 /  30  50  50  30
ELN  54  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  49  31  43  23 /  40  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  46  29  41  28 /  70  60  70  60
DLS  55  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/







000
FXUS66 KPDT 261748 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
948 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FROM
MEACHAM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND INTO THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
AND GRANT COUNTY...ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN. AS THE LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA TRAVELS DOWN THE COAST SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL INITIALLY BE
OVER THE AREA RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL TO 2500 TO 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL STAY
MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
IMPACT ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER
EITHER 27/07 OR 27/09 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC, KPDT AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH
KPDT AND KPSC SEEING VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALSO KPDT
MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD DUE TO UPSLOPE
AFFECTS. CIGS AT THESE THREE SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN 4500 AND 11000
FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. 90

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  50  30  40  30
PSC  55  36  51  31 /  30  40  30  20
YKM  52  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  53  36  49  30 /  30  50  50  30
ELN  54  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  49  31  43  23 /  40  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  46  29  41  28 /  70  60  70  60
DLS  55  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/







000
FXUS66 KPDT 261748 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
948 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FROM
MEACHAM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND INTO THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
AND GRANT COUNTY...ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN. AS THE LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA TRAVELS DOWN THE COAST SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL INITIALLY BE
OVER THE AREA RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL TO 2500 TO 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL STAY
MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
IMPACT ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER
EITHER 27/07 OR 27/09 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC, KPDT AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH
KPDT AND KPSC SEEING VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALSO KPDT
MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD DUE TO UPSLOPE
AFFECTS. CIGS AT THESE THREE SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN 4500 AND 11000
FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. 90

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  50  30  40  30
PSC  55  36  51  31 /  30  40  30  20
YKM  52  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  53  36  49  30 /  30  50  50  30
ELN  54  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  49  31  43  23 /  40  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  46  29  41  28 /  70  60  70  60
DLS  55  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/







000
FXUS66 KPDT 261748 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
948 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FROM
MEACHAM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND INTO THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
AND GRANT COUNTY...ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN. AS THE LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA TRAVELS DOWN THE COAST SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL INITIALLY BE
OVER THE AREA RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL TO 2500 TO 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL STAY
MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
IMPACT ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER
EITHER 27/07 OR 27/09 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC, KPDT AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH
KPDT AND KPSC SEEING VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALSO KPDT
MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD DUE TO UPSLOPE
AFFECTS. CIGS AT THESE THREE SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN 4500 AND 11000
FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. 90

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  50  30  40  30
PSC  55  36  51  31 /  30  40  30  20
YKM  52  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  53  36  49  30 /  30  50  50  30
ELN  54  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  49  31  43  23 /  40  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  46  29  41  28 /  70  60  70  60
DLS  55  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/







000
FXUS66 KPDT 261748 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
948 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FROM
MEACHAM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND INTO THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
AND GRANT COUNTY...ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN. AS THE LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA TRAVELS DOWN THE COAST SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL INITIALLY BE
OVER THE AREA RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL TO 2500 TO 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL STAY
MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
IMPACT ON KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MVFR WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY STARTING AFTER
EITHER 27/07 OR 27/09 UTC. SNOW SHOWERS AT KBDN AND KRDM COULD
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS BELOW MVFR, BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW. EXPECT KPSC, KPDT AND KALW TO REMAIN VFR WITH
KPDT AND KPSC SEEING VICINITY SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALSO KPDT
MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD DUE TO UPSLOPE
AFFECTS. CIGS AT THESE THREE SITES WILL VARY BETWEEN 4500 AND 11000
FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. 90

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  50  30  40  30
PSC  55  36  51  31 /  30  40  30  20
YKM  52  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  53  36  49  30 /  30  50  50  30
ELN  54  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  49  31  43  23 /  40  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  46  29  41  28 /  70  60  70  60
DLS  55  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/







000
FXUS66 KPQR 261701
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS
MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...THE CASCADES GOT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
ODOT REPORTED AN INCH AT SANTIAM PASS...WHICH IS AROUND 4800 FEET.
WEB CAMERAS SHOW RAIN AT SANTIAM PASS THIS MORNING SUGGESTING THE
SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN ABOVE 4800 FEET FOR THE NORTH OREGON
CASCADES...WHICH IS LINE WITH THIS MORNING`S FORECAST.

LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS A COOLER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND ADDED THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SMALL HAIL.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA
IN COOL NW FLOW. MESOWEST OBS SHOW PCPN RATES AROUND .01 TO .03
INCHES PER 3 HOURS AND CLOSE TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVEL APPEARS TO BE AROUND 4500 FT PER OBS AND WEB
CAMS.  ODOT WEBCAM AT SANTIAM PASS NEAR 5000 FT HAS BEEN SHOWING
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE ROAD SURFACE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY SNOW COVERED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A 120KT NWLY
JET.  THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DETERMINE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN FALL. CURRENT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL ALSO DROP TONIGHT REACHING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FT
FRIDAY. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
EXPECT A LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000 FEET. MODELS ARE SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -5C AND -15C SO THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF SEEDS FOR GROWING
SNOWFLAKES.  ALL CASCADE PASSES WILL RECEIVE SOME SNOW TONIGHT BUT
THE HIGHER ONES ARE LIKELY TO SEE AROUND HALF A FOOT OF NEW SNOW BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES FRI NIGHT. BUT SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS
TIME AND NOT LIKELY TO BRING ADVISORY AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY THAT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR...WITH IFR/MVFR AT
THE COAST AND PATCHES OF IFR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE A MORE
ORGANIZED CLOUD SHIELD WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES
OF IFR MIXED IN. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY
EARLY FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL VIS WITH -RA OR DZ
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TEMPO IFR THIS MORNING. BOWEN/PT

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 20 KT MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN OFFSHORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PICK ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 25 KT ON
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261701
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS
MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...THE CASCADES GOT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
ODOT REPORTED AN INCH AT SANTIAM PASS...WHICH IS AROUND 4800 FEET.
WEB CAMERAS SHOW RAIN AT SANTIAM PASS THIS MORNING SUGGESTING THE
SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN ABOVE 4800 FEET FOR THE NORTH OREGON
CASCADES...WHICH IS LINE WITH THIS MORNING`S FORECAST.

LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS A COOLER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NW. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND ADDED THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SMALL HAIL.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA
IN COOL NW FLOW. MESOWEST OBS SHOW PCPN RATES AROUND .01 TO .03
INCHES PER 3 HOURS AND CLOSE TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVEL APPEARS TO BE AROUND 4500 FT PER OBS AND WEB
CAMS.  ODOT WEBCAM AT SANTIAM PASS NEAR 5000 FT HAS BEEN SHOWING
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE ROAD SURFACE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY SNOW COVERED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A 120KT NWLY
JET.  THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DETERMINE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN FALL. CURRENT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL ALSO DROP TONIGHT REACHING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FT
FRIDAY. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
EXPECT A LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000 FEET. MODELS ARE SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -5C AND -15C SO THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF SEEDS FOR GROWING
SNOWFLAKES.  ALL CASCADE PASSES WILL RECEIVE SOME SNOW TONIGHT BUT
THE HIGHER ONES ARE LIKELY TO SEE AROUND HALF A FOOT OF NEW SNOW BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES FRI NIGHT. BUT SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS
TIME AND NOT LIKELY TO BRING ADVISORY AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /27
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
TO FEED INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY THAT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR...WITH IFR/MVFR AT
THE COAST AND PATCHES OF IFR INLAND. MODELS INDICATE A MORE
ORGANIZED CLOUD SHIELD WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES
OF IFR MIXED IN. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY
EARLY FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL VIS WITH -RA OR DZ
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH TEMPO IFR THIS MORNING. BOWEN/PT

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 20 KT MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN OFFSHORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PICK ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 25 KT ON
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PT

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO
     FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 261650
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
950 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SE ACROSS
MUCH OF OWYHEE COUNTY THIS MORNING. OTHER OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN COMMON IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SRN
TWIN FALLS COUNTY AS WELL. FINALLY...SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS. WE EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY TODAY. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
INCREASE POPS IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. EXPECT MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS IN THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND THE
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY MAINLY EAST OF KMUO...IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR
AFTER 19Z. SNOW LEVELS 3500 FT MSL NORTH TO 5000 FT MSL SOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS... WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOIST BUT RELATIVELY STABLE
NW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
MID- LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT CROSSES FROM COASTAL BC CANADA THIS
MORNING...TO FAR SW IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE MOST /ALBEIT LIGHT/ PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT
TERM. SNOWING AT MCCALL AND A TRACE OF RAIN AT MOUNTAIN HOME BUT
SO FAR THE TREASURE VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY AT REPORTING STATIONS.
COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 6 AM THEN A DRY
SURGE ON WATER VAPOR CUTS OFF THE FIRST ROUND OF VALLEY PRECIP.
UNTIL THE H7 LOW BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. VALLEY HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL QUICKLY MELT ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF THE LATTER AFTER 2 PM MST. THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE OVER
THE REGION BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DECREASING POPS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
IDAHO.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 261650
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
950 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SE ACROSS
MUCH OF OWYHEE COUNTY THIS MORNING. OTHER OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN COMMON IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SRN
TWIN FALLS COUNTY AS WELL. FINALLY...SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS. WE EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY TODAY. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
INCREASE POPS IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. EXPECT MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS IN THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND THE
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY MAINLY EAST OF KMUO...IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR
AFTER 19Z. SNOW LEVELS 3500 FT MSL NORTH TO 5000 FT MSL SOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS... WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOIST BUT RELATIVELY STABLE
NW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
MID- LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT CROSSES FROM COASTAL BC CANADA THIS
MORNING...TO FAR SW IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE MOST /ALBEIT LIGHT/ PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT
TERM. SNOWING AT MCCALL AND A TRACE OF RAIN AT MOUNTAIN HOME BUT
SO FAR THE TREASURE VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY AT REPORTING STATIONS.
COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 6 AM THEN A DRY
SURGE ON WATER VAPOR CUTS OFF THE FIRST ROUND OF VALLEY PRECIP.
UNTIL THE H7 LOW BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. VALLEY HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL QUICKLY MELT ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF THE LATTER AFTER 2 PM MST. THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE OVER
THE REGION BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DECREASING POPS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
IDAHO.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 261650
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
950 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SE ACROSS
MUCH OF OWYHEE COUNTY THIS MORNING. OTHER OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN COMMON IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SRN
TWIN FALLS COUNTY AS WELL. FINALLY...SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS. WE EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY TODAY. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
INCREASE POPS IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. EXPECT MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS IN THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND THE
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY MAINLY EAST OF KMUO...IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR
AFTER 19Z. SNOW LEVELS 3500 FT MSL NORTH TO 5000 FT MSL SOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS... WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOIST BUT RELATIVELY STABLE
NW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
MID- LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT CROSSES FROM COASTAL BC CANADA THIS
MORNING...TO FAR SW IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE MOST /ALBEIT LIGHT/ PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT
TERM. SNOWING AT MCCALL AND A TRACE OF RAIN AT MOUNTAIN HOME BUT
SO FAR THE TREASURE VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY AT REPORTING STATIONS.
COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 6 AM THEN A DRY
SURGE ON WATER VAPOR CUTS OFF THE FIRST ROUND OF VALLEY PRECIP.
UNTIL THE H7 LOW BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. VALLEY HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL QUICKLY MELT ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF THE LATTER AFTER 2 PM MST. THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE OVER
THE REGION BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DECREASING POPS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
IDAHO.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS66 KMFR 261638
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED FORECAST, AS
ALL OF THE PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF
EFFORTS TODAY ON THE UPCOMING SYSTEM, WITH A FOCUS ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOW LEVELS. RIGHT NOW, SNOW LEVELS
DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST AT AROUND 4000
FEET. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE WET BULB EFFECT
RESULTING FROM THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN THE AREA, COULD BRING THOSE
SNOW LEVELS DOWN FURTHER. THERE IS NO THREAT AT THIS TIME OF WEST
SIDE VALLEY SNOWS, BUT SEVERAL, IF NOT ALL, OF THE MAJOR PASSES IN
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS COULD BE AFFECTED. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS TODAY WITH MVFR NOW PREVALENT ALONG THE
COAST...EXPANDING INLAND TO THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LOWERING CIGS. BY THE
AFTERNOON, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INLAND TO THE
CASCADES WITH TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500-6000 FT MSL. MVFR CIGS/LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE EAST SIDE AND SOME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
LOCATIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. FREEZING LEVELS WILL
DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...TO ABOUT 4000 FT MSL.
-KEENE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 AM PST, THURSDAY 26 FEB, 2015...NORTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN JUST
BELOW CRITERIA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. -SK


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...BLENDED RAIN RATE SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW RAIN
FALLING JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST OREGON COAST IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ALL THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS AND SHOW IT ARRIVING
INTO OUR AREA SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE GFS AND NAM IN
PARTICULAR ARE QUICKER WITH BOTH SHOWING AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO THE CASCADES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FUTHERMORE, THE 26/00Z RAOB AT MEDFORD SHOWED THE
AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED A LOT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, SO PRECIPITATION
SHOULDN`T HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. LAST EVENING`S SHIFT
INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEST SIDE TODAY, AND GIVEN
THE ABOVE, THIS LOOKS GOOD.

DEEP, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW AIDED BY A 110KT UPPER JET CONTINUES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND THUS AT LEAST INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE CASCADES WEST WITH SOME SPILLOVER ONTO
THE EAST SIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH SNOW FALLING
DOWN TO MOST HIGHER PASSES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS OF B.C. WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND DIG WESTWARD
ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION RATES AND
ALSO BRING COLDER AIR WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. THE 500 MB COLD
POOL IS APPROACHING -30C ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY CONVECTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE. WE
SHOULD SEE OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS
ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
SMALL HAIL ON THE WEST SIDE. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM, MOST OF
WHICH SHOULD COME FRIDAY. SNOW WILL ALSO MAKE IT ACROSS THE
CASCADES WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ON THE EAST SIDE. WE
ALREADY HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUT (PDXSPSMFR) WHICH
GIVES DETAILS. WHILE WE MAY NEED SOME WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS EAST SIDE FOR FRIDAY, WE HAVE OPTED TO
WAIT ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE MAKING THOSE DECISIONS. A
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY LIKE THIS DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IN OUR CALIFORNIA ZONES, BUT THEY WILL CERTAINLY SEE SOME VALLEY
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WITH THIS STORM AS WELL.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED. THE WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN. THEN
ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4
     AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BPN/TRW/NSK



000
FXUS66 KMFR 261638
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED FORECAST, AS
ALL OF THE PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF
EFFORTS TODAY ON THE UPCOMING SYSTEM, WITH A FOCUS ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOW LEVELS. RIGHT NOW, SNOW LEVELS
DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST AT AROUND 4000
FEET. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE WET BULB EFFECT
RESULTING FROM THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN THE AREA, COULD BRING THOSE
SNOW LEVELS DOWN FURTHER. THERE IS NO THREAT AT THIS TIME OF WEST
SIDE VALLEY SNOWS, BUT SEVERAL, IF NOT ALL, OF THE MAJOR PASSES IN
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS COULD BE AFFECTED. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS TODAY WITH MVFR NOW PREVALENT ALONG THE
COAST...EXPANDING INLAND TO THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LOWERING CIGS. BY THE
AFTERNOON, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD INLAND TO THE
CASCADES WITH TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500-6000 FT MSL. MVFR CIGS/LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE EAST SIDE AND SOME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
LOCATIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. FREEZING LEVELS WILL
DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...TO ABOUT 4000 FT MSL.
-KEENE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 AM PST, THURSDAY 26 FEB, 2015...NORTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN JUST
BELOW CRITERIA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. -SK


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...BLENDED RAIN RATE SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW RAIN
FALLING JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST OREGON COAST IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ALL THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS AND SHOW IT ARRIVING
INTO OUR AREA SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE GFS AND NAM IN
PARTICULAR ARE QUICKER WITH BOTH SHOWING AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO THE CASCADES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FUTHERMORE, THE 26/00Z RAOB AT MEDFORD SHOWED THE
AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED A LOT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, SO PRECIPITATION
SHOULDN`T HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. LAST EVENING`S SHIFT
INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEST SIDE TODAY, AND GIVEN
THE ABOVE, THIS LOOKS GOOD.

DEEP, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW AIDED BY A 110KT UPPER JET CONTINUES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND THUS AT LEAST INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE CASCADES WEST WITH SOME SPILLOVER ONTO
THE EAST SIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH SNOW FALLING
DOWN TO MOST HIGHER PASSES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS OF B.C. WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND DIG WESTWARD
ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION RATES AND
ALSO BRING COLDER AIR WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. THE 500 MB COLD
POOL IS APPROACHING -30C ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY CONVECTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE. WE
SHOULD SEE OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS
ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
SMALL HAIL ON THE WEST SIDE. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM, MOST OF
WHICH SHOULD COME FRIDAY. SNOW WILL ALSO MAKE IT ACROSS THE
CASCADES WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ON THE EAST SIDE. WE
ALREADY HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUT (PDXSPSMFR) WHICH
GIVES DETAILS. WHILE WE MAY NEED SOME WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS EAST SIDE FOR FRIDAY, WE HAVE OPTED TO
WAIT ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE MAKING THOSE DECISIONS. A
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY LIKE THIS DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IN OUR CALIFORNIA ZONES, BUT THEY WILL CERTAINLY SEE SOME VALLEY
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WITH THIS STORM AS WELL.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED. THE WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN. THEN
ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4
     AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BPN/TRW/NSK



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261632
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
833 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FROM
MEACHAM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND INTO THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
AND GRANT COUNTY...ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN. AS THE LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA TRAVELS DOWN THE COAST SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL INITIALLY BE
OVER THE AREA RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL TO 2500 TO 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL STAY
MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  COBB

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN-OVC SKIES AT 5000-9000
FEET AGL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT
KPDT AND KALW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER
00Z WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 4-6SM
VISIBILITIES AT KDLS AND KYKM AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  50  30  40  30
PSC  55  36  51  31 /  30  40  30  20
YKM  52  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  53  36  49  30 /  30  50  50  30
ELN  54  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  49  31  43  23 /  40  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  46  29  41  28 /  70  60  70  60
DLS  55  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/








000
FXUS66 KPDT 261632
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
833 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FROM
MEACHAM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BLUES AND INTO THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
AND GRANT COUNTY...ELEVATIONS BELOW 4500 FEET ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN. AS THE LOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA TRAVELS DOWN THE COAST SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL INITIALLY BE
OVER THE AREA RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY FALL TO 2500 TO 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN. EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL STAY
MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  COBB

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN-OVC SKIES AT 5000-9000
FEET AGL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT
KPDT AND KALW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER
00Z WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 4-6SM
VISIBILITIES AT KDLS AND KYKM AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  50  30  40  30
PSC  55  36  51  31 /  30  40  30  20
YKM  52  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  53  36  49  30 /  30  50  50  30
ELN  54  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  49  31  43  23 /  40  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  46  29  41  28 /  70  60  70  60
DLS  55  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/








000
FXUS66 KPDT 261156 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN-OVC SKIES AT 5000-9000
FEET AGL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT
KPDT AND KALW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER
00Z WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 4-6SM
VISIBILITIES AT KDLS AND KYKM AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83






000
FXUS66 KPDT 261156 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN-OVC SKIES AT 5000-9000
FEET AGL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT
KPDT AND KALW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER
00Z WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 4-6SM
VISIBILITIES AT KDLS AND KYKM AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 261156 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN-OVC SKIES AT 5000-9000
FEET AGL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT
KPDT AND KALW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER
00Z WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 4-6SM
VISIBILITIES AT KDLS AND KYKM AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83






000
FXUS66 KPDT 261156 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN-OVC SKIES AT 5000-9000
FEET AGL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT
KPDT AND KALW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER
00Z WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 4-6SM
VISIBILITIES AT KDLS AND KYKM AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83






000
FXUS66 KPDT 261156 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN-OVC SKIES AT 5000-9000
FEET AGL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT
KPDT AND KALW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER
00Z WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 4-6SM
VISIBILITIES AT KDLS AND KYKM AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83






000
FXUS66 KPDT 261156 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
356 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BKN-OVC SKIES AT 5000-9000
FEET AGL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT
KPDT AND KALW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER
00Z WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KYKM, KDLS, KRDM AND KBDN.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 4-6SM
VISIBILITIES AT KDLS AND KYKM AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAFS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT KPSC, KALW AND KPDT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83






000
FXUS66 KPQR 261109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS
MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA IN COOL
NW FLOW. MESOWEST OBS SHOW PCPN RATES AROUND .01 TO .03 INCHES PER 3
HOURS AND CLOSE TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVEL APPEARS TO BE AROUND 4500 FT PER OBS AND WEB CAMS.  ODOT
WEBCAM AT SANTIAM PASS NEAR 5000 FT HAS BEEN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE ROAD SURFACE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY SNOW COVERED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A 120KT NWLY
JET.  THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DETERMINE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN FALL. CURRENT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL ALSO DROP TONIGHT REACHING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FT
FRIDAY. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
EXPECT A LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000 FEET. MODELS ARE SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -5C AND -15C SO THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF SEEDS FOR GROWING
SNOWFLAKES.  ALL CASCADE PASSES WILL RECEIVE SOME SNOW TONIGHT BUT
THE HIGHER ONES ARE LIKELY TO SEE AROUND HALF A FOOT OF NEW SNOW BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES FRI NIGHT. BUT SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS
TIME AND NOT LIKELY TO BRING ADVISORY AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON MUCH OF TODAY
THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW PATCHES OF IFR THIS MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE THE MORE
ORGANIZED CLOUD SHIELD CROSSING 130W THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD IN DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT FOR MORE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...
AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF IFR MIXED IN. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE MVFR THIS MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LOWER BACK TO MVFR AS THE NEXT CLOUD
SHIELD AND PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 20 KT MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN OFFSHORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PICK ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 25 KT ON
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
     ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
     4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 261109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS
MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA IN COOL
NW FLOW. MESOWEST OBS SHOW PCPN RATES AROUND .01 TO .03 INCHES PER 3
HOURS AND CLOSE TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVEL APPEARS TO BE AROUND 4500 FT PER OBS AND WEB CAMS.  ODOT
WEBCAM AT SANTIAM PASS NEAR 5000 FT HAS BEEN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE ROAD SURFACE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY SNOW COVERED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A 120KT NWLY
JET.  THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DETERMINE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN FALL. CURRENT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL ALSO DROP TONIGHT REACHING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FT
FRIDAY. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
EXPECT A LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000 FEET. MODELS ARE SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -5C AND -15C SO THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF SEEDS FOR GROWING
SNOWFLAKES.  ALL CASCADE PASSES WILL RECEIVE SOME SNOW TONIGHT BUT
THE HIGHER ONES ARE LIKELY TO SEE AROUND HALF A FOOT OF NEW SNOW BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES FRI NIGHT. BUT SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS
TIME AND NOT LIKELY TO BRING ADVISORY AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON MUCH OF TODAY
THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW PATCHES OF IFR THIS MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE THE MORE
ORGANIZED CLOUD SHIELD CROSSING 130W THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD IN DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT FOR MORE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...
AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF IFR MIXED IN. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE MVFR THIS MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LOWER BACK TO MVFR AS THE NEXT CLOUD
SHIELD AND PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 20 KT MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN OFFSHORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PICK ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 25 KT ON
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
     ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
     4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261109
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS
MONDAY BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA IN COOL
NW FLOW. MESOWEST OBS SHOW PCPN RATES AROUND .01 TO .03 INCHES PER 3
HOURS AND CLOSE TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVEL APPEARS TO BE AROUND 4500 FT PER OBS AND WEB CAMS.  ODOT
WEBCAM AT SANTIAM PASS NEAR 5000 FT HAS BEEN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE ROAD SURFACE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY SNOW COVERED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A 120KT NWLY
JET.  THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DETERMINE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN FALL. CURRENT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS.

THE SNOW LEVEL WILL ALSO DROP TONIGHT REACHING AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FT
FRIDAY. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS AND COLD UPPER TROUGH
EXPECT A LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000 FEET. MODELS ARE SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
BETWEEN -5C AND -15C SO THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF SEEDS FOR GROWING
SNOWFLAKES.  ALL CASCADE PASSES WILL RECEIVE SOME SNOW TONIGHT BUT
THE HIGHER ONES ARE LIKELY TO SEE AROUND HALF A FOOT OF NEW SNOW BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE COOL UPPER TROUGH IS INSTABILITY THAT IT WILL
BRING. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES FRI NIGHT. BUT SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE BY THIS
TIME AND NOT LIKELY TO BRING ADVISORY AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ /MH

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON MUCH OF TODAY
THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW PATCHES OF IFR THIS MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE THE MORE
ORGANIZED CLOUD SHIELD CROSSING 130W THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD IN DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT FOR MORE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...
AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF IFR MIXED IN. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE MVFR THIS MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LOWER BACK TO MVFR AS THE NEXT CLOUD
SHIELD AND PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SOME BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 20 KT MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN OFFSHORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PICK ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 25 KT ON
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW 10 FT PROBABLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 10 FT
ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES
     ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
     4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 261100
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CIGS
AT MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z  WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWERED CATEGORIES AGAIN.  WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY 15KTS AT
KPDT...BUT OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS FOR THE TAF
PERIOD.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83











000
FXUS66 KPDT 261100
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CIGS
AT MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z  WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWERED CATEGORIES AGAIN.  WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY 15KTS AT
KPDT...BUT OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS FOR THE TAF
PERIOD.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83












000
FXUS66 KPDT 261100
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CIGS
AT MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z  WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWERED CATEGORIES AGAIN.  WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY 15KTS AT
KPDT...BUT OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS FOR THE TAF
PERIOD.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83











000
FXUS66 KPDT 261100
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING DECENT
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH AND EAST INTO
WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS). SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FEET AND SNOW IS
FALLING AT KMEH AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT...THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
AT KMEH IS MARGINAL...34 DEGREES...AND TOLLGATE IS AT 30 LAST HOUR.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND THEN FOR THE SOUTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS BEGINNING AT 06Z THIS
EVENING. THESE LOOK GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
WATCH THE RADAR AND OBSERVATION DATA FOR WALLOWA COUNTY AS THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF THE FLOW DOESN`T BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST. A NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD PROVIDE THE
BEST UPSLOPE IN WALLOWA COUNTY. FOR THE OTHER ADVISORY AREAS BELIEVE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE...BY LATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND IT MAY START OUT AS RAIN UNTIL SNOW
LEVELS LOWER FURTHER. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE SHOWERY RATHER THAN STEADY STRATIFORM. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING BAKER COUNTY. THIS ALSO MATCHES
UP WITH BOI`S THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTH BUT A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEIGHTS...THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL DECREASE. 88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LEAVING THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING
TAPERING OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS NORTHEAST INTO WALLOWA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET SO EXPECT ONLY SNOW BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EXPECT A
CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE AND A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IF IT PANS OUT, THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
NEEDED. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING. OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN RISING BY THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CIGS
AT MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z  WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWERED CATEGORIES AGAIN.  WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY 15KTS AT
KPDT...BUT OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS FOR THE TAF
PERIOD.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  36  47  28 /  50  50  50  30
ALW  51  37  49  31 /  80  30  40  30
PSC  53  36  51  31 /  40  40  30  20
YKM  50  34  48  29 /  30  60  60  30
HRI  51  36  49  30 /  50  50  50  30
ELN  50  34  48  28 /  40  60  60  30
RDM  45  31  43  23 /  50  60  70  60
LGD  48  28  46  27 /  60  40  50  50
GCD  43  29  41  28 /  60  60  70  60
DLS  52  39  50  34 /  50  70  80  50

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
     SATURDAY ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ABOVE 3000
     FEET FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM PST
     FRIDAY ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83












000
FXUS66 KMFR 261037
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
237 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...BLENDED RAIN RATE SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW RAIN
FALLING JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST OREGON COAST IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ALL THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS AND SHOW IT ARRIVING
INTO OUR AREA SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE GFS AND NAM IN
PARTICULAR ARE QUICKER WITH BOTH SHOWING AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO THE CASCADES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FUTHERMORE, THE 26/00Z RAOB AT MEDFORD SHOWED THE
AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED A LOT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, SO PRECIPITATION
SHOULDN`T HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. LAST EVENING`S SHIFT
INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEST SIDE TODAY, AND GIVEN
THE ABOVE, THIS LOOKS GOOD.

DEEP, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW AIDED BY A 110KT UPPER JET CONTINUES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND THUS AT LEAST INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE CASCADES WEST WITH SOME SPILLOVER ONTO
THE EAST SIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH SNOW FALLING
DOWN TO MOST HIGHER PASSES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS OF B.C. WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND DIG WESTWARD
ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION RATES AND
ALSO BRING COLDER AIR WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. THE 500 MB COLD
POOL IS APPROACHING -30C ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY CONVECTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE. WE
SHOULD SEE OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS
ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
SMALL HAIL ON THE WEST SIDE. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM, MOST OF
WHICH SHOULD COME FRIDAY. SNOW WILL ALSO MAKE IT ACROSS THE
CASCADES WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ON THE EAST SIDE. WE
ALREADY HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUT (PDXSPSMFR) WHICH
GIVES DETAILS. WHILE WE MAY NEED SOME WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS EAST SIDE FOR FRIDAY, WE HAVE OPTED TO
WAIT ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE MAKING THOSE DECISIONS. A
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY LIKE THIS DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IN OUR CALIFORNIA ZONES, BUT THEY WILL CERTAINLY SEE SOME VALLEY
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WITH THIS STORM AS WELL.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED. THE WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN. THEN
ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MVFR
BECOMING PREVALENT ALONG THE COAST AFTER 09Z AND THEN INTO THE
UMPQUA BASIN AFTER 12Z. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE LOWERING CIGS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CIGS TO SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES WITH TERRAIN BECOMING
OBSCURED IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
5500-6000 FT MSL. MVFR CIGS/LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE EAST
SIDE AND SOME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LOCATIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 2 AM PST, THURSDAY 26 FEB, 2015...NORTH WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WESTERLY TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN JUST BELOW
CRITERIA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
    10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
    PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261037
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
237 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...BLENDED RAIN RATE SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW RAIN
FALLING JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST OREGON COAST IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ALL THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS AND SHOW IT ARRIVING
INTO OUR AREA SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE GFS AND NAM IN
PARTICULAR ARE QUICKER WITH BOTH SHOWING AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO THE CASCADES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FUTHERMORE, THE 26/00Z RAOB AT MEDFORD SHOWED THE
AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED A LOT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, SO PRECIPITATION
SHOULDN`T HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. LAST EVENING`S SHIFT
INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEST SIDE TODAY, AND GIVEN
THE ABOVE, THIS LOOKS GOOD.

DEEP, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW AIDED BY A 110KT UPPER JET CONTINUES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND THUS AT LEAST INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE CASCADES WEST WITH SOME SPILLOVER ONTO
THE EAST SIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH SNOW FALLING
DOWN TO MOST HIGHER PASSES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS OF B.C. WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND DIG WESTWARD
ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION RATES AND
ALSO BRING COLDER AIR WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. THE 500 MB COLD
POOL IS APPROACHING -30C ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY CONVECTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE. WE
SHOULD SEE OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS
ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
SMALL HAIL ON THE WEST SIDE. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM, MOST OF
WHICH SHOULD COME FRIDAY. SNOW WILL ALSO MAKE IT ACROSS THE
CASCADES WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ON THE EAST SIDE. WE
ALREADY HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUT (PDXSPSMFR) WHICH
GIVES DETAILS. WHILE WE MAY NEED SOME WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS EAST SIDE FOR FRIDAY, WE HAVE OPTED TO
WAIT ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE MAKING THOSE DECISIONS. A
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY LIKE THIS DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IN OUR CALIFORNIA ZONES, BUT THEY WILL CERTAINLY SEE SOME VALLEY
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WITH THIS STORM AS WELL.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED. THE WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN. THEN
ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MVFR
BECOMING PREVALENT ALONG THE COAST AFTER 09Z AND THEN INTO THE
UMPQUA BASIN AFTER 12Z. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE LOWERING CIGS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CIGS TO SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES WITH TERRAIN BECOMING
OBSCURED IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
5500-6000 FT MSL. MVFR CIGS/LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE EAST
SIDE AND SOME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LOCATIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 2 AM PST, THURSDAY 26 FEB, 2015...NORTH WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WESTERLY TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ONSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN JUST BELOW
CRITERIA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
    10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
    PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$



000
FXUS65 KBOI 261032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOIST BUT RELATIVELY STABLE
NW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
MID- LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT CROSSES FROM COASTAL BC CANADA THIS
MORNING...TO FAR SW IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE MOST /ALBEIT LIGHT/ PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT
TERM. SNOWING AT MCCALL AND A TRACE OF RAIN AT MOUNTAIN HOME BUT
SO FAR THE TREASURE VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY AT REPORTING STATIONS.
COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 6 AM THEN A DRY
SURGE ON WATER VAPOR CUTS OFF THE FIRST ROUND OF VALLEY PRECIP.
UNTIL THE H7 LOW BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. VALLEY HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL QUICKLY MELT ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF THE LATTER AFTER 2 PM MST. THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE OVER
THE REGION BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DECREASING POPS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
IDAHO.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ABOVE 5K FEET MSL WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
BELOW 5K FEET MSL.  SNOW LEVELS 3K TO 4K FEET MSL.  SURFACE WINDS
WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 261032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOIST BUT RELATIVELY STABLE
NW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
MID- LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT CROSSES FROM COASTAL BC CANADA THIS
MORNING...TO FAR SW IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE MOST /ALBEIT LIGHT/ PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT
TERM. SNOWING AT MCCALL AND A TRACE OF RAIN AT MOUNTAIN HOME BUT
SO FAR THE TREASURE VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY AT REPORTING STATIONS.
COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 6 AM THEN A DRY
SURGE ON WATER VAPOR CUTS OFF THE FIRST ROUND OF VALLEY PRECIP.
UNTIL THE H7 LOW BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. VALLEY HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL QUICKLY MELT ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF THE LATTER AFTER 2 PM MST. THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE OVER
THE REGION BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DECREASING POPS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
IDAHO.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ABOVE 5K FEET MSL WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
BELOW 5K FEET MSL.  SNOW LEVELS 3K TO 4K FEET MSL.  SURFACE WINDS
WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 261032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOIST BUT RELATIVELY STABLE
NW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
MID- LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT CROSSES FROM COASTAL BC CANADA THIS
MORNING...TO FAR SW IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE MOST /ALBEIT LIGHT/ PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT
TERM. SNOWING AT MCCALL AND A TRACE OF RAIN AT MOUNTAIN HOME BUT
SO FAR THE TREASURE VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY AT REPORTING STATIONS.
COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 6 AM THEN A DRY
SURGE ON WATER VAPOR CUTS OFF THE FIRST ROUND OF VALLEY PRECIP.
UNTIL THE H7 LOW BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. VALLEY HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL QUICKLY MELT ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF THE LATTER AFTER 2 PM MST. THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE OVER
THE REGION BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DECREASING POPS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
IDAHO.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ABOVE 5K FEET MSL WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
BELOW 5K FEET MSL.  SNOW LEVELS 3K TO 4K FEET MSL.  SURFACE WINDS
WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 261032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOIST BUT RELATIVELY STABLE
NW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
MID- LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT CROSSES FROM COASTAL BC CANADA THIS
MORNING...TO FAR SW IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE MOST /ALBEIT LIGHT/ PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT
TERM. SNOWING AT MCCALL AND A TRACE OF RAIN AT MOUNTAIN HOME BUT
SO FAR THE TREASURE VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY AT REPORTING STATIONS.
COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 6 AM THEN A DRY
SURGE ON WATER VAPOR CUTS OFF THE FIRST ROUND OF VALLEY PRECIP.
UNTIL THE H7 LOW BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. VALLEY HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL QUICKLY MELT ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF THE LATTER AFTER 2 PM MST. THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE OVER
THE REGION BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DECREASING POPS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
IDAHO.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ABOVE 5K FEET MSL WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
BELOW 5K FEET MSL.  SNOW LEVELS 3K TO 4K FEET MSL.  SURFACE WINDS
WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 261032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
332 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOIST BUT RELATIVELY STABLE
NW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
MID- LEVEL LOW CENTER THAT CROSSES FROM COASTAL BC CANADA THIS
MORNING...TO FAR SW IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE MOST /ALBEIT LIGHT/ PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT
TERM. SNOWING AT MCCALL AND A TRACE OF RAIN AT MOUNTAIN HOME BUT
SO FAR THE TREASURE VALLEY HAS BEEN DRY AT REPORTING STATIONS.
COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 6 AM THEN A DRY
SURGE ON WATER VAPOR CUTS OFF THE FIRST ROUND OF VALLEY PRECIP.
UNTIL THE H7 LOW BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. VALLEY HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL QUICKLY MELT ANY SNOW THAT
OCCURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE NAM SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF THE LATTER AFTER 2 PM MST. THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE OVER
THE REGION BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
DECREASING POPS OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
IDAHO.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ABOVE 5K FEET MSL WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
BELOW 5K FEET MSL.  SNOW LEVELS 3K TO 4K FEET MSL.  SURFACE WINDS
WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 260540 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
940 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST.  HAVE
INCREASED POPS AND QPF A BIT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A GOOD NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY.  THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 5000FT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH...AND IMPACTS FOR TRAVELERS ALONG THE MAIN US HIGHWAYS
WILL BE OVER SHORT DISTANCES.  LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.  NEW SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL BE 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 3000 FEET IN WALLOWA COUNTY.  A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY.  ADVISORY TIME WILL BE FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES
TONIGHT AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS
POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 15Z
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED
CATEGORIES AGAIN.  WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY 15KTS AT KPDT...BUT
OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
WEBER

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 215 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WINTER WEATHER IS
RETURNING THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5000 FEET. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS
COMING IN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES WILL BE SOMEWHAT RAINSHADOWED...SO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE CREST. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
ABOVE 3000 TO 3500 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED. CENTRAL OREGON...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...AND THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES.
AGAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE LOW WILL THEN
TRACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY...BRINGING COLDER AIR AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AS
LOW AS 1500 FEET ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL...FURTHER EVALUATION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS IN CASE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO CENTRAL OREGON BRINGS HEAVIER SNOW.  COBB

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ONE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND CARVE OUT
MORE OF A TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL ON THE
COLDEST AIR REMAINING EAST OF THE REGION BUT TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  50  36  48 /  60  50  50  50
ALW  38  51  37  49 /  70  80  30  40
PSC  37  53  36  52 /  50  40  40  30
YKM  33  51  34  48 /  40  30  60  60
HRI  36  53  36  51 /  50  50  50  50
ELN  36  51  34  49 /  50  40  60  60
RDM  31  51  31  44 /  40  50  60  70
LGD  33  48  28  47 /  50  60  40  50
GCD  34  49  29  47 /  60  60  60  70
DLS  40  56  39  52 /  50  50  60  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET
     FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY
     ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/93/93







000
FXUS66 KPDT 260540 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
940 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST.  HAVE
INCREASED POPS AND QPF A BIT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A GOOD NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY.  THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 5000FT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH...AND IMPACTS FOR TRAVELERS ALONG THE MAIN US HIGHWAYS
WILL BE OVER SHORT DISTANCES.  LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.  NEW SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL BE 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 3000 FEET IN WALLOWA COUNTY.  A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY.  ADVISORY TIME WILL BE FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES
TONIGHT AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS
POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 15Z
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED
CATEGORIES AGAIN.  WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY 15KTS AT KPDT...BUT
OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
WEBER

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 215 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WINTER WEATHER IS
RETURNING THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5000 FEET. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS
COMING IN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES WILL BE SOMEWHAT RAINSHADOWED...SO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE CREST. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
ABOVE 3000 TO 3500 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED. CENTRAL OREGON...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...AND THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES.
AGAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE LOW WILL THEN
TRACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY...BRINGING COLDER AIR AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AS
LOW AS 1500 FEET ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL...FURTHER EVALUATION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS IN CASE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO CENTRAL OREGON BRINGS HEAVIER SNOW.  COBB

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ONE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND CARVE OUT
MORE OF A TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL ON THE
COLDEST AIR REMAINING EAST OF THE REGION BUT TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  50  36  48 /  60  50  50  50
ALW  38  51  37  49 /  70  80  30  40
PSC  37  53  36  52 /  50  40  40  30
YKM  33  51  34  48 /  40  30  60  60
HRI  36  53  36  51 /  50  50  50  50
ELN  36  51  34  49 /  50  40  60  60
RDM  31  51  31  44 /  40  50  60  70
LGD  33  48  28  47 /  50  60  40  50
GCD  34  49  29  47 /  60  60  60  70
DLS  40  56  39  52 /  50  50  60  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET
     FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY
     ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/93/93






000
FXUS66 KPDT 260540 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
940 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST.  HAVE
INCREASED POPS AND QPF A BIT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A GOOD NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY.  THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 5000FT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH...AND IMPACTS FOR TRAVELERS ALONG THE MAIN US HIGHWAYS
WILL BE OVER SHORT DISTANCES.  LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.  NEW SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL BE 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 3000 FEET IN WALLOWA COUNTY.  A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY.  ADVISORY TIME WILL BE FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES
TONIGHT AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS
POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 15Z
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED
CATEGORIES AGAIN.  WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY 15KTS AT KPDT...BUT
OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
WEBER

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 215 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WINTER WEATHER IS
RETURNING THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5000 FEET. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS
COMING IN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES WILL BE SOMEWHAT RAINSHADOWED...SO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE CREST. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
ABOVE 3000 TO 3500 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED. CENTRAL OREGON...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...AND THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES.
AGAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE LOW WILL THEN
TRACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY...BRINGING COLDER AIR AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AS
LOW AS 1500 FEET ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL...FURTHER EVALUATION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS IN CASE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO CENTRAL OREGON BRINGS HEAVIER SNOW.  COBB

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ONE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND CARVE OUT
MORE OF A TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL ON THE
COLDEST AIR REMAINING EAST OF THE REGION BUT TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  50  36  48 /  60  50  50  50
ALW  38  51  37  49 /  70  80  30  40
PSC  37  53  36  52 /  50  40  40  30
YKM  33  51  34  48 /  40  30  60  60
HRI  36  53  36  51 /  50  50  50  50
ELN  36  51  34  49 /  50  40  60  60
RDM  31  51  31  44 /  40  50  60  70
LGD  33  48  28  47 /  50  60  40  50
GCD  34  49  29  47 /  60  60  60  70
DLS  40  56  39  52 /  50  50  60  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET
     FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY
     ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/93/93







000
FXUS66 KPDT 260540 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
940 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST.  HAVE
INCREASED POPS AND QPF A BIT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A GOOD NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY.  THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 5000FT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH...AND IMPACTS FOR TRAVELERS ALONG THE MAIN US HIGHWAYS
WILL BE OVER SHORT DISTANCES.  LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.  NEW SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL BE 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 3000 FEET IN WALLOWA COUNTY.  A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY.  ADVISORY TIME WILL BE FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES
TONIGHT AS BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS
POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 15Z
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED
CATEGORIES AGAIN.  WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY 15KTS AT KPDT...BUT
OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
WEBER

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 215 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WINTER WEATHER IS
RETURNING THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5000 FEET. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS
COMING IN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES WILL BE SOMEWHAT RAINSHADOWED...SO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE CREST. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
ABOVE 3000 TO 3500 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED. CENTRAL OREGON...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...AND THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES.
AGAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE LOW WILL THEN
TRACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY...BRINGING COLDER AIR AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AS
LOW AS 1500 FEET ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL...FURTHER EVALUATION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS IN CASE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO CENTRAL OREGON BRINGS HEAVIER SNOW.  COBB

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ONE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND CARVE OUT
MORE OF A TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL ON THE
COLDEST AIR REMAINING EAST OF THE REGION BUT TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  50  36  48 /  60  50  50  50
ALW  38  51  37  49 /  70  80  30  40
PSC  37  53  36  52 /  50  40  40  30
YKM  33  51  34  48 /  40  30  60  60
HRI  36  53  36  51 /  50  50  50  50
ELN  36  51  34  49 /  50  40  60  60
RDM  31  51  31  44 /  40  50  60  70
LGD  33  48  28  47 /  50  60  40  50
GCD  34  49  29  47 /  60  60  60  70
DLS  40  56  39  52 /  50  50  60  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET
     FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY
     ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/93/93






000
FXUS66 KMFR 260510
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
910 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO
INCREASE POPS FOR THURSDAY. NEW 00Z MODELS ARE BRINGING
PRECIPITATION IN A BIT FASTER WEST OF THE CASCADES AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
RAIN INTO MEDFORD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE
COLD POOL ALOFT SETTLES IN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
AND PLAN NO OTHER CHANGES THIS EVENING. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE... A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUATION OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING AT THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL BRING
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS TURNING
INTO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN,
WITH POSSIBLE TERRAIN OBSCURATION.  ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 420 PM PST, WEDNESDAY 25 FEB, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND WINDS SHIFT TO ONSHORE...THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...AND COULD EVEN PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MSC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE ON TRACK AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE GFS...NAM
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVES ONTO OUR
NORTHERN COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NOSE OF A 125 KT JET NUDGES INTO THE REGION
AND BY THURSDAY EVENING THE ARE IS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION...BOTH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING
LAPSE RATES TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING A COOL POOL OF LESS THAN -25C MOVES DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEARSHORE WITH MODERATE
ONSHORE 700 MB FLOW. AS THE SURFACE HEATS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A
COLD POOL AT 500 MB NEAR -28C OVER MOST OF THE AREA ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE WEST SIDE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY, MARCH 1ST THROUGH WED NIGHT, MARCH 5TH...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN SHORT, MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY JET STREAM EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 130 WEST
LONGITUDE AND, THEREFORE, TRACK THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW FURTHER WESTWARD. THIS WOULD GIVE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOME
TIME TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEFORE
COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITH
MODERATELY LOW SNOW LEVELS OVER THE AREA, HAS INCREASED FROM LOW TO
NOW MODERATE.

SPECIFICALLY, THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE FLOW OVER THE AREA FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD SUCH THAT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD START ARRIVING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUS, AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL RIVAL THE COLD
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK, WE EXPECT A
SEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY AND MODERATE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY VERY WELL BE SOME OF THE COLDER SHOWERY
DAYS WE`VE SEEN, THUS FAR, THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 40S AND BELOW FREEZING HIGHS ABOVE MOST
5000 FOOT ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET. DETAILS RELATED TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATEST ON THE
WEST SIDE ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE UNDER A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY
AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE FRUIT GROWING AREAS
CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES. BTL

AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE... A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUATION OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING AT THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL BRING
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS TURNING
INTO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN,
WITH POSSIBLE TERRAIN OBSCURATION.  ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

MSC

MARINE...UPDATED 420 PM PST, WEDNESDAY 25 FEB, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND WINDS SHIFT TO ONSHORE...THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...AND COULD EVEN PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MSC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM
 PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST
 THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MAS/SBN/MSC/JRS/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 260510
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
910 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO
INCREASE POPS FOR THURSDAY. NEW 00Z MODELS ARE BRINGING
PRECIPITATION IN A BIT FASTER WEST OF THE CASCADES AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
RAIN INTO MEDFORD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE
COLD POOL ALOFT SETTLES IN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
AND PLAN NO OTHER CHANGES THIS EVENING. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE... A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUATION OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING AT THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL BRING
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS TURNING
INTO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN,
WITH POSSIBLE TERRAIN OBSCURATION.  ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 420 PM PST, WEDNESDAY 25 FEB, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND WINDS SHIFT TO ONSHORE...THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...AND COULD EVEN PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MSC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE ON TRACK AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE GFS...NAM
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVES ONTO OUR
NORTHERN COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NOSE OF A 125 KT JET NUDGES INTO THE REGION
AND BY THURSDAY EVENING THE ARE IS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION...BOTH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING
LAPSE RATES TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING A COOL POOL OF LESS THAN -25C MOVES DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEARSHORE WITH MODERATE
ONSHORE 700 MB FLOW. AS THE SURFACE HEATS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A
COLD POOL AT 500 MB NEAR -28C OVER MOST OF THE AREA ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE WEST SIDE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY, MARCH 1ST THROUGH WED NIGHT, MARCH 5TH...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN SHORT, MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY JET STREAM EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 130 WEST
LONGITUDE AND, THEREFORE, TRACK THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW FURTHER WESTWARD. THIS WOULD GIVE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOME
TIME TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEFORE
COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITH
MODERATELY LOW SNOW LEVELS OVER THE AREA, HAS INCREASED FROM LOW TO
NOW MODERATE.

SPECIFICALLY, THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE FLOW OVER THE AREA FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD SUCH THAT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD START ARRIVING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUS, AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL RIVAL THE COLD
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK, WE EXPECT A
SEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY AND MODERATE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY VERY WELL BE SOME OF THE COLDER SHOWERY
DAYS WE`VE SEEN, THUS FAR, THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 40S AND BELOW FREEZING HIGHS ABOVE MOST
5000 FOOT ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET. DETAILS RELATED TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATEST ON THE
WEST SIDE ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE UNDER A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY
AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE FRUIT GROWING AREAS
CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES. BTL

AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE... A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUATION OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING AT THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL BRING
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS TURNING
INTO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN,
WITH POSSIBLE TERRAIN OBSCURATION.  ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

MSC

MARINE...UPDATED 420 PM PST, WEDNESDAY 25 FEB, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND WINDS SHIFT TO ONSHORE...THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...AND COULD EVEN PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MSC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM
 PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST
 THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MAS/SBN/MSC/JRS/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 260510
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
910 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO
INCREASE POPS FOR THURSDAY. NEW 00Z MODELS ARE BRINGING
PRECIPITATION IN A BIT FASTER WEST OF THE CASCADES AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
RAIN INTO MEDFORD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE
COLD POOL ALOFT SETTLES IN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
AND PLAN NO OTHER CHANGES THIS EVENING. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE... A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUATION OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING AT THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL BRING
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS TURNING
INTO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN,
WITH POSSIBLE TERRAIN OBSCURATION.  ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 420 PM PST, WEDNESDAY 25 FEB, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND WINDS SHIFT TO ONSHORE...THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...AND COULD EVEN PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MSC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE ON TRACK AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE GFS...NAM
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVES ONTO OUR
NORTHERN COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NOSE OF A 125 KT JET NUDGES INTO THE REGION
AND BY THURSDAY EVENING THE ARE IS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION...BOTH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING
LAPSE RATES TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING A COOL POOL OF LESS THAN -25C MOVES DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEARSHORE WITH MODERATE
ONSHORE 700 MB FLOW. AS THE SURFACE HEATS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A
COLD POOL AT 500 MB NEAR -28C OVER MOST OF THE AREA ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE WEST SIDE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY, MARCH 1ST THROUGH WED NIGHT, MARCH 5TH...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN SHORT, MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY JET STREAM EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 130 WEST
LONGITUDE AND, THEREFORE, TRACK THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW FURTHER WESTWARD. THIS WOULD GIVE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOME
TIME TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEFORE
COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITH
MODERATELY LOW SNOW LEVELS OVER THE AREA, HAS INCREASED FROM LOW TO
NOW MODERATE.

SPECIFICALLY, THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE FLOW OVER THE AREA FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD SUCH THAT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD START ARRIVING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUS, AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL RIVAL THE COLD
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK, WE EXPECT A
SEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY AND MODERATE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY VERY WELL BE SOME OF THE COLDER SHOWERY
DAYS WE`VE SEEN, THUS FAR, THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 40S AND BELOW FREEZING HIGHS ABOVE MOST
5000 FOOT ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET. DETAILS RELATED TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATEST ON THE
WEST SIDE ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE UNDER A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY
AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE FRUIT GROWING AREAS
CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES. BTL

AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE... A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUATION OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING AT THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL BRING
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS TURNING
INTO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN,
WITH POSSIBLE TERRAIN OBSCURATION.  ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

MSC

MARINE...UPDATED 420 PM PST, WEDNESDAY 25 FEB, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND WINDS SHIFT TO ONSHORE...THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...AND COULD EVEN PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MSC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM
 PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST
 THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MAS/SBN/MSC/JRS/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 260510
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
910 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO
INCREASE POPS FOR THURSDAY. NEW 00Z MODELS ARE BRINGING
PRECIPITATION IN A BIT FASTER WEST OF THE CASCADES AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
RAIN INTO MEDFORD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE
COLD POOL ALOFT SETTLES IN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
AND PLAN NO OTHER CHANGES THIS EVENING. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE... A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUATION OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING AT THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL BRING
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS TURNING
INTO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN,
WITH POSSIBLE TERRAIN OBSCURATION.  ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 420 PM PST, WEDNESDAY 25 FEB, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND WINDS SHIFT TO ONSHORE...THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...AND COULD EVEN PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MSC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE ON TRACK AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE GFS...NAM
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVES ONTO OUR
NORTHERN COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NOSE OF A 125 KT JET NUDGES INTO THE REGION
AND BY THURSDAY EVENING THE ARE IS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION...BOTH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING
LAPSE RATES TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING A COOL POOL OF LESS THAN -25C MOVES DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEARSHORE WITH MODERATE
ONSHORE 700 MB FLOW. AS THE SURFACE HEATS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A
COLD POOL AT 500 MB NEAR -28C OVER MOST OF THE AREA ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE WEST SIDE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY, MARCH 1ST THROUGH WED NIGHT, MARCH 5TH...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN SHORT, MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY JET STREAM EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 130 WEST
LONGITUDE AND, THEREFORE, TRACK THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW FURTHER WESTWARD. THIS WOULD GIVE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOME
TIME TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEFORE
COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITH
MODERATELY LOW SNOW LEVELS OVER THE AREA, HAS INCREASED FROM LOW TO
NOW MODERATE.

SPECIFICALLY, THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE FLOW OVER THE AREA FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD SUCH THAT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD START ARRIVING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUS, AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL RIVAL THE COLD
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK, WE EXPECT A
SEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY AND MODERATE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY VERY WELL BE SOME OF THE COLDER SHOWERY
DAYS WE`VE SEEN, THUS FAR, THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 40S AND BELOW FREEZING HIGHS ABOVE MOST
5000 FOOT ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET. DETAILS RELATED TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATEST ON THE
WEST SIDE ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE UNDER A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY
AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE FRUIT GROWING AREAS
CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES. BTL

AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE... A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUATION OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING AT THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL BRING
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS TURNING
INTO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN,
WITH POSSIBLE TERRAIN OBSCURATION.  ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

MSC

MARINE...UPDATED 420 PM PST, WEDNESDAY 25 FEB, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND WINDS SHIFT TO ONSHORE...THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...AND COULD EVEN PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MSC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM
 PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST
 THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MAS/SBN/MSC/JRS/BTL




000
FXUS66 KPDT 260411
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
811 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST.  HAVE
INCREASED POPS AND QPF A BIT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A GOOD NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY.  THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 5000FT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH...AND IMPACTS FOR TRAVELERS ALONG THE MAIN US HIGHWAYS
WILL BE OVER SHORT DISTANCES.  LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.  NEW SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL BE 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 3000 FEET IN WALLOWA COUNTY.  A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY.  ADVISORY TIME WILL BE FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  WEBER


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 215 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WINTER WEATHER IS
RETURNING THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5000 FEET. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS
COMING IN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES WILL BE SOMEWHAT RAINSHADOWED...SO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE CREST. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
ABOVE 3000 TO 3500 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED. CENTRAL OREGON...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...AND THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES.
AGAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE LOW WILL THEN
TRACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY...BRINGING COLDER AIR AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AS
LOW AS 1500 FEET ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL...FURTHER EVALUATION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS IN CASE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO CENTRAL OREGON BRINGS HEAVIER SNOW.  COBB

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ONE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND CARVE OUT
MORE OF A TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL ON THE
COLDEST AIR REMAINING EAST OF THE REGION BUT TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  ML

AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS. AFTER 04Z TAF SITES WILL
HAVE MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z AND HAVE MENTIONED -SHRA AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 05Z (02Z
AT KYKM). THE LOWER CEILINGS IN -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
15Z ON THURSDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT SNOW. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  50  36  48 /  60  50  50  50
ALW  38  51  37  49 /  70  80  30  40
PSC  37  53  36  52 /  50  40  40  30
YKM  33  51  34  48 /  40  30  60  60
HRI  36  53  36  51 /  50  50  50  50
ELN  36  51  34  49 /  50  40  60  60
RDM  31  51  31  44 /  40  50  60  70
LGD  33  48  28  47 /  50  60  40  50
GCD  34  49  29  47 /  60  60  60  70
DLS  40  56  39  52 /  50  50  60  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET
     FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY
     ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/93/93








000
FXUS66 KPDT 260411
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
811 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST.  HAVE
INCREASED POPS AND QPF A BIT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A GOOD NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY.  THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 5000FT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH...AND IMPACTS FOR TRAVELERS ALONG THE MAIN US HIGHWAYS
WILL BE OVER SHORT DISTANCES.  LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.  NEW SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL BE 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 3000 FEET IN WALLOWA COUNTY.  A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY.  ADVISORY TIME WILL BE FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  WEBER


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 215 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WINTER WEATHER IS
RETURNING THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5000 FEET. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS
COMING IN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES WILL BE SOMEWHAT RAINSHADOWED...SO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE CREST. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
ABOVE 3000 TO 3500 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED. CENTRAL OREGON...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...AND THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES.
AGAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE LOW WILL THEN
TRACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY...BRINGING COLDER AIR AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AS
LOW AS 1500 FEET ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL...FURTHER EVALUATION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS IN CASE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO CENTRAL OREGON BRINGS HEAVIER SNOW.  COBB

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ONE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND CARVE OUT
MORE OF A TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL ON THE
COLDEST AIR REMAINING EAST OF THE REGION BUT TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  ML

AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS. AFTER 04Z TAF SITES WILL
HAVE MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z AND HAVE MENTIONED -SHRA AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 05Z (02Z
AT KYKM). THE LOWER CEILINGS IN -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
15Z ON THURSDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT SNOW. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  50  36  48 /  60  50  50  50
ALW  38  51  37  49 /  70  80  30  40
PSC  37  53  36  52 /  50  40  40  30
YKM  33  51  34  48 /  40  30  60  60
HRI  36  53  36  51 /  50  50  50  50
ELN  36  51  34  49 /  50  40  60  60
RDM  31  51  31  44 /  40  50  60  70
LGD  33  48  28  47 /  50  60  40  50
GCD  34  49  29  47 /  60  60  60  70
DLS  40  56  39  52 /  50  50  60  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET
     FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY
     ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/93/93









000
FXUS66 KPDT 260411
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
811 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST.  HAVE
INCREASED POPS AND QPF A BIT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A GOOD NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY.  THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 5000FT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH...AND IMPACTS FOR TRAVELERS ALONG THE MAIN US HIGHWAYS
WILL BE OVER SHORT DISTANCES.  LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.  NEW SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL BE 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 3000 FEET IN WALLOWA COUNTY.  A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY.  ADVISORY TIME WILL BE FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  WEBER


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 215 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WINTER WEATHER IS
RETURNING THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5000 FEET. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS
COMING IN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES WILL BE SOMEWHAT RAINSHADOWED...SO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE CREST. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
ABOVE 3000 TO 3500 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED. CENTRAL OREGON...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...AND THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES.
AGAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE LOW WILL THEN
TRACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY...BRINGING COLDER AIR AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AS
LOW AS 1500 FEET ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL...FURTHER EVALUATION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS IN CASE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO CENTRAL OREGON BRINGS HEAVIER SNOW.  COBB

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ONE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND CARVE OUT
MORE OF A TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL ON THE
COLDEST AIR REMAINING EAST OF THE REGION BUT TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  ML

AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS. AFTER 04Z TAF SITES WILL
HAVE MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z AND HAVE MENTIONED -SHRA AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 05Z (02Z
AT KYKM). THE LOWER CEILINGS IN -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
15Z ON THURSDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT SNOW. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  50  36  48 /  60  50  50  50
ALW  38  51  37  49 /  70  80  30  40
PSC  37  53  36  52 /  50  40  40  30
YKM  33  51  34  48 /  40  30  60  60
HRI  36  53  36  51 /  50  50  50  50
ELN  36  51  34  49 /  50  40  60  60
RDM  31  51  31  44 /  40  50  60  70
LGD  33  48  28  47 /  50  60  40  50
GCD  34  49  29  47 /  60  60  60  70
DLS  40  56  39  52 /  50  50  60  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET
     FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY
     ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/93/93








000
FXUS66 KPDT 260411
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
811 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST.  HAVE
INCREASED POPS AND QPF A BIT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A GOOD NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
WALLOWA COUNTY.  THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 5000FT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH...AND IMPACTS FOR TRAVELERS ALONG THE MAIN US HIGHWAYS
WILL BE OVER SHORT DISTANCES.  LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.  NEW SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL BE 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 3000 FEET IN WALLOWA COUNTY.  A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR WALLOWA
COUNTY.  ADVISORY TIME WILL BE FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  WEBER


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 215 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WINTER WEATHER IS
RETURNING THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5000 FEET. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS
COMING IN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES WILL BE SOMEWHAT RAINSHADOWED...SO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE CREST. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
ABOVE 3000 TO 3500 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED. CENTRAL OREGON...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...AND THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES.
AGAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE LOW WILL THEN
TRACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY...BRINGING COLDER AIR AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AS
LOW AS 1500 FEET ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL...FURTHER EVALUATION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS IN CASE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO CENTRAL OREGON BRINGS HEAVIER SNOW.  COBB

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ONE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND CARVE OUT
MORE OF A TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL ON THE
COLDEST AIR REMAINING EAST OF THE REGION BUT TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  ML

AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS. AFTER 04Z TAF SITES WILL
HAVE MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z AND HAVE MENTIONED -SHRA AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 05Z (02Z
AT KYKM). THE LOWER CEILINGS IN -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
15Z ON THURSDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT SNOW. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  50  36  48 /  60  50  50  50
ALW  38  51  37  49 /  70  80  30  40
PSC  37  53  36  52 /  50  40  40  30
YKM  33  51  34  48 /  40  30  60  60
HRI  36  53  36  51 /  50  50  50  50
ELN  36  51  34  49 /  50  40  60  60
RDM  31  51  31  44 /  40  50  60  70
LGD  33  48  28  47 /  50  60  40  50
GCD  34  49  29  47 /  60  60  60  70
DLS  40  56  39  52 /  50  50  60  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET
     FOR THE ORZ050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY
     ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

89/93/93









000
FXUS66 KPQR 260408
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
800 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS MONDAY
BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM...INITAL SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RANDAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST A SHIFT IN THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE S LATER TONIGHT. THIS FITS WITH THE FORECAST OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLIPPING A LITTLE FURTHER S...AS WELL AS THE DEPICTED MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290K ISENTROPE. MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BOOST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE POTENITIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
CASCADES.

A 115+KT JET COMBINED WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY A BIT...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 120KT
UPPER JET MAX INCREASES LIFT OVER THE AREA. CAN EXPECT 0.2 TO 0.4
INCH OF RAIN FOR THE LOW LANDS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET...AND EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW FOR THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRIDAY. THIS INSTABILITY
MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF A OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE. IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS DECREASING RETURNS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT AS
THEN NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR MAINLY MVFR
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...THEN INCREASING MVFR INLAND
THEREAFTER. COAST LIKELY TO SEE AREAS OF IFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THU MORNING. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND AFTER 16Z
THU...WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO THU AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...THEN
LOWERING TO MVFR. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR THU MORNING.
WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THU NIGHT. GENERAL SW-W WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT...BUT WILL
SHIFT TO NW THU MORNING. LATEST NAM MODEL RUN SHOWS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING AROUND 54N 135W 12Z THU THEN SLIDING SWD THU AND THU
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND BACKING TO THE S OVER MUCH OF THE
WATERS...BUT MORE WLY IN THE FAR SRN WATERS. NWLY WIND SPREADS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE THU NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...THEN INTO NEARLY ALL WATERS BY FRI MORNING. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF 25 KT GUSTS LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...BUT N TO NE WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE S WATERS SAT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH ON
MON AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY GUSTS. SEAS LOOK TO
STAY WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 260408
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
800 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS MONDAY
BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM...INITAL SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RANDAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST A SHIFT IN THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE S LATER TONIGHT. THIS FITS WITH THE FORECAST OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLIPPING A LITTLE FURTHER S...AS WELL AS THE DEPICTED MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290K ISENTROPE. MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BOOST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE POTENITIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
CASCADES.

A 115+KT JET COMBINED WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY A BIT...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 120KT
UPPER JET MAX INCREASES LIFT OVER THE AREA. CAN EXPECT 0.2 TO 0.4
INCH OF RAIN FOR THE LOW LANDS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET...AND EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW FOR THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRIDAY. THIS INSTABILITY
MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF A OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE. IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS DECREASING RETURNS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT AS
THEN NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR MAINLY MVFR
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...THEN INCREASING MVFR INLAND
THEREAFTER. COAST LIKELY TO SEE AREAS OF IFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THU MORNING. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND AFTER 16Z
THU...WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO THU AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...THEN
LOWERING TO MVFR. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR THU MORNING.
WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THU NIGHT. GENERAL SW-W WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT...BUT WILL
SHIFT TO NW THU MORNING. LATEST NAM MODEL RUN SHOWS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING AROUND 54N 135W 12Z THU THEN SLIDING SWD THU AND THU
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND BACKING TO THE S OVER MUCH OF THE
WATERS...BUT MORE WLY IN THE FAR SRN WATERS. NWLY WIND SPREADS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE THU NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...THEN INTO NEARLY ALL WATERS BY FRI MORNING. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF 25 KT GUSTS LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...BUT N TO NE WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE S WATERS SAT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH ON
MON AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY GUSTS. SEAS LOOK TO
STAY WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 260408
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
800 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS MONDAY
BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM...INITAL SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RANDAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST A SHIFT IN THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE S LATER TONIGHT. THIS FITS WITH THE FORECAST OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLIPPING A LITTLE FURTHER S...AS WELL AS THE DEPICTED MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290K ISENTROPE. MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BOOST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE POTENITIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
CASCADES.

A 115+KT JET COMBINED WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY A BIT...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 120KT
UPPER JET MAX INCREASES LIFT OVER THE AREA. CAN EXPECT 0.2 TO 0.4
INCH OF RAIN FOR THE LOW LANDS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET...AND EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW FOR THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRIDAY. THIS INSTABILITY
MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF A OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE. IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS DECREASING RETURNS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT AS
THEN NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR MAINLY MVFR
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...THEN INCREASING MVFR INLAND
THEREAFTER. COAST LIKELY TO SEE AREAS OF IFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THU MORNING. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND AFTER 16Z
THU...WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO THU AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...THEN
LOWERING TO MVFR. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR THU MORNING.
WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THU NIGHT. GENERAL SW-W WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT...BUT WILL
SHIFT TO NW THU MORNING. LATEST NAM MODEL RUN SHOWS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING AROUND 54N 135W 12Z THU THEN SLIDING SWD THU AND THU
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND BACKING TO THE S OVER MUCH OF THE
WATERS...BUT MORE WLY IN THE FAR SRN WATERS. NWLY WIND SPREADS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE THU NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...THEN INTO NEARLY ALL WATERS BY FRI MORNING. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF 25 KT GUSTS LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...BUT N TO NE WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE S WATERS SAT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH ON
MON AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY GUSTS. SEAS LOOK TO
STAY WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 260408
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
800 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS MONDAY
BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM...INITAL SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT RANDAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST A SHIFT IN THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE S LATER TONIGHT. THIS FITS WITH THE FORECAST OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SLIPPING A LITTLE FURTHER S...AS WELL AS THE DEPICTED MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290K ISENTROPE. MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GIVE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BOOST IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE POTENITIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
CASCADES.

A 115+KT JET COMBINED WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY A BIT...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 120KT
UPPER JET MAX INCREASES LIFT OVER THE AREA. CAN EXPECT 0.2 TO 0.4
INCH OF RAIN FOR THE LOW LANDS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET...AND EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW FOR THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRIDAY. THIS INSTABILITY
MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF A OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE. IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS
OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM
IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT
THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...PRIMARILY A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS DECREASING RETURNS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT AS
THEN NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR MAINLY MVFR
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...THEN INCREASING MVFR INLAND
THEREAFTER. COAST LIKELY TO SEE AREAS OF IFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THU MORNING. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND AFTER 16Z
THU...WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO THU AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...THEN
LOWERING TO MVFR. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR THU MORNING.
WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THU NIGHT. GENERAL SW-W WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT...BUT WILL
SHIFT TO NW THU MORNING. LATEST NAM MODEL RUN SHOWS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING AROUND 54N 135W 12Z THU THEN SLIDING SWD THU AND THU
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND BACKING TO THE S OVER MUCH OF THE
WATERS...BUT MORE WLY IN THE FAR SRN WATERS. NWLY WIND SPREADS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE THU NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...THEN INTO NEARLY ALL WATERS BY FRI MORNING. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF 25 KT GUSTS LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...BUT N TO NE WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE S WATERS SAT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH ON
MON AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY GUSTS. SEAS LOOK TO
STAY WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 260333
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
833 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8 PM MST NO PCPN HAS BEEN OBSERVED UPSTREAM
WITHIN REACH OF OUR CWA...BUT MODELS...EXPECIALLY THE SREF...BRING
IN LIGHT PCPN WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING...AND MORE PCPN WITH A STRONGER TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OREGON SIDE.  MAV POP GUIDANCE
LOOKS TOO LOW AS IT HAS OFTEN BEEN THIS WINTER...NAM IS WETTER AND
ALMOST CERTAINLY BETTER...AND SREF IS THE WETTEST BUT PROBABLY TOO
WET.  OUR CURRENT POPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF ALL MODEL POPS BUT
SHADED TOWARD THE WETTER MODELS...AND THIS LOOKS GOOD IN VIEW OF THE
QPF ISSUED BY THOSE MODELS.  TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO CORRESPOND WITH
THE HIGHER POPS...I.E. MILDER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY
COMPARED TO MOST MODEL VALUES.  THESE DECISIONS LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY OREGON AFTER MIDNIGHT
...SPREADING SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER BY 12Z AND CONTINUING MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS 3K-4K FT MSL FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VERY INTERESTING FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST
IS A SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. MODELS QPF
IS LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SW IDAHO...AND HAVE
TRENDED LOWER IN POPS AND QPF THERE. TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP
OVERNIGHT BY CLOUD COVER...AND THEN HELD DOWN TOMORROW BY CLOUDS
LINGERING BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS MUCH
STRONGER...BUT IS FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF ARE IN SE OREGON FOR THAT
SYSTEM. THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER.
MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES MAY DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AS BOTH AIR AND ROAD
TEMPS SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE ARE NO ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS. IT IS NOTABLE...HOWEVER...THAT AFTER SUCH MILD WEATHER...
THIS RETURN TO WINTRY PRECIP MAY SURPRISE MANY FOLKS. LASTLY...
WINDS THIS EVENING IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AFTER MANAGING TO GUST TO 45 MPH EARLIER TODAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT
THE COOL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO
PLATEAU SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SECOND
TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 260333
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
833 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8 PM MST NO PCPN HAS BEEN OBSERVED UPSTREAM
WITHIN REACH OF OUR CWA...BUT MODELS...EXPECIALLY THE SREF...BRING
IN LIGHT PCPN WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING...AND MORE PCPN WITH A STRONGER TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OREGON SIDE.  MAV POP GUIDANCE
LOOKS TOO LOW AS IT HAS OFTEN BEEN THIS WINTER...NAM IS WETTER AND
ALMOST CERTAINLY BETTER...AND SREF IS THE WETTEST BUT PROBABLY TOO
WET.  OUR CURRENT POPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF ALL MODEL POPS BUT
SHADED TOWARD THE WETTER MODELS...AND THIS LOOKS GOOD IN VIEW OF THE
QPF ISSUED BY THOSE MODELS.  TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO CORRESPOND WITH
THE HIGHER POPS...I.E. MILDER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY
COMPARED TO MOST MODEL VALUES.  THESE DECISIONS LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY OREGON AFTER MIDNIGHT
...SPREADING SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER BY 12Z AND CONTINUING MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS 3K-4K FT MSL FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VERY INTERESTING FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST
IS A SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. MODELS QPF
IS LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SW IDAHO...AND HAVE
TRENDED LOWER IN POPS AND QPF THERE. TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP
OVERNIGHT BY CLOUD COVER...AND THEN HELD DOWN TOMORROW BY CLOUDS
LINGERING BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS MUCH
STRONGER...BUT IS FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF ARE IN SE OREGON FOR THAT
SYSTEM. THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER.
MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES MAY DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AS BOTH AIR AND ROAD
TEMPS SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE ARE NO ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS. IT IS NOTABLE...HOWEVER...THAT AFTER SUCH MILD WEATHER...
THIS RETURN TO WINTRY PRECIP MAY SURPRISE MANY FOLKS. LASTLY...
WINDS THIS EVENING IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AFTER MANAGING TO GUST TO 45 MPH EARLIER TODAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT
THE COOL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO
PLATEAU SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SECOND
TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 260333
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
833 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8 PM MST NO PCPN HAS BEEN OBSERVED UPSTREAM
WITHIN REACH OF OUR CWA...BUT MODELS...EXPECIALLY THE SREF...BRING
IN LIGHT PCPN WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING...AND MORE PCPN WITH A STRONGER TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OREGON SIDE.  MAV POP GUIDANCE
LOOKS TOO LOW AS IT HAS OFTEN BEEN THIS WINTER...NAM IS WETTER AND
ALMOST CERTAINLY BETTER...AND SREF IS THE WETTEST BUT PROBABLY TOO
WET.  OUR CURRENT POPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF ALL MODEL POPS BUT
SHADED TOWARD THE WETTER MODELS...AND THIS LOOKS GOOD IN VIEW OF THE
QPF ISSUED BY THOSE MODELS.  TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO CORRESPOND WITH
THE HIGHER POPS...I.E. MILDER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY
COMPARED TO MOST MODEL VALUES.  THESE DECISIONS LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY OREGON AFTER MIDNIGHT
...SPREADING SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER BY 12Z AND CONTINUING MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS 3K-4K FT MSL FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VERY INTERESTING FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST
IS A SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. MODELS QPF
IS LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SW IDAHO...AND HAVE
TRENDED LOWER IN POPS AND QPF THERE. TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP
OVERNIGHT BY CLOUD COVER...AND THEN HELD DOWN TOMORROW BY CLOUDS
LINGERING BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS MUCH
STRONGER...BUT IS FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF ARE IN SE OREGON FOR THAT
SYSTEM. THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER.
MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES MAY DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AS BOTH AIR AND ROAD
TEMPS SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE ARE NO ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS. IT IS NOTABLE...HOWEVER...THAT AFTER SUCH MILD WEATHER...
THIS RETURN TO WINTRY PRECIP MAY SURPRISE MANY FOLKS. LASTLY...
WINDS THIS EVENING IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AFTER MANAGING TO GUST TO 45 MPH EARLIER TODAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT
THE COOL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO
PLATEAU SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SECOND
TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 260333
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
833 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8 PM MST NO PCPN HAS BEEN OBSERVED UPSTREAM
WITHIN REACH OF OUR CWA...BUT MODELS...EXPECIALLY THE SREF...BRING
IN LIGHT PCPN WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING...AND MORE PCPN WITH A STRONGER TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OREGON SIDE.  MAV POP GUIDANCE
LOOKS TOO LOW AS IT HAS OFTEN BEEN THIS WINTER...NAM IS WETTER AND
ALMOST CERTAINLY BETTER...AND SREF IS THE WETTEST BUT PROBABLY TOO
WET.  OUR CURRENT POPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF ALL MODEL POPS BUT
SHADED TOWARD THE WETTER MODELS...AND THIS LOOKS GOOD IN VIEW OF THE
QPF ISSUED BY THOSE MODELS.  TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO CORRESPOND WITH
THE HIGHER POPS...I.E. MILDER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY
COMPARED TO MOST MODEL VALUES.  THESE DECISIONS LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY OREGON AFTER MIDNIGHT
...SPREADING SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER BY 12Z AND CONTINUING MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS 3K-4K FT MSL FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VERY INTERESTING FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST
IS A SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. MODELS QPF
IS LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SW IDAHO...AND HAVE
TRENDED LOWER IN POPS AND QPF THERE. TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP
OVERNIGHT BY CLOUD COVER...AND THEN HELD DOWN TOMORROW BY CLOUDS
LINGERING BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS MUCH
STRONGER...BUT IS FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF ARE IN SE OREGON FOR THAT
SYSTEM. THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER.
MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES MAY DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AS BOTH AIR AND ROAD
TEMPS SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE ARE NO ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS. IT IS NOTABLE...HOWEVER...THAT AFTER SUCH MILD WEATHER...
THIS RETURN TO WINTRY PRECIP MAY SURPRISE MANY FOLKS. LASTLY...
WINDS THIS EVENING IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AFTER MANAGING TO GUST TO 45 MPH EARLIER TODAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT
THE COOL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO
PLATEAU SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SECOND
TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 260333
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
833 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8 PM MST NO PCPN HAS BEEN OBSERVED UPSTREAM
WITHIN REACH OF OUR CWA...BUT MODELS...EXPECIALLY THE SREF...BRING
IN LIGHT PCPN WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING...AND MORE PCPN WITH A STRONGER TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OREGON SIDE.  MAV POP GUIDANCE
LOOKS TOO LOW AS IT HAS OFTEN BEEN THIS WINTER...NAM IS WETTER AND
ALMOST CERTAINLY BETTER...AND SREF IS THE WETTEST BUT PROBABLY TOO
WET.  OUR CURRENT POPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF ALL MODEL POPS BUT
SHADED TOWARD THE WETTER MODELS...AND THIS LOOKS GOOD IN VIEW OF THE
QPF ISSUED BY THOSE MODELS.  TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO CORRESPOND WITH
THE HIGHER POPS...I.E. MILDER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY
COMPARED TO MOST MODEL VALUES.  THESE DECISIONS LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY OREGON AFTER MIDNIGHT
...SPREADING SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER BY 12Z AND CONTINUING MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS 3K-4K FT MSL FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VERY INTERESTING FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST
IS A SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. MODELS QPF
IS LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SW IDAHO...AND HAVE
TRENDED LOWER IN POPS AND QPF THERE. TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP
OVERNIGHT BY CLOUD COVER...AND THEN HELD DOWN TOMORROW BY CLOUDS
LINGERING BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS MUCH
STRONGER...BUT IS FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF ARE IN SE OREGON FOR THAT
SYSTEM. THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER.
MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES MAY DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AS BOTH AIR AND ROAD
TEMPS SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE ARE NO ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS. IT IS NOTABLE...HOWEVER...THAT AFTER SUCH MILD WEATHER...
THIS RETURN TO WINTRY PRECIP MAY SURPRISE MANY FOLKS. LASTLY...
WINDS THIS EVENING IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AFTER MANAGING TO GUST TO 45 MPH EARLIER TODAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT
THE COOL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO
PLATEAU SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SECOND
TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260333
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
833 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8 PM MST NO PCPN HAS BEEN OBSERVED UPSTREAM
WITHIN REACH OF OUR CWA...BUT MODELS...EXPECIALLY THE SREF...BRING
IN LIGHT PCPN WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING...AND MORE PCPN WITH A STRONGER TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OREGON SIDE.  MAV POP GUIDANCE
LOOKS TOO LOW AS IT HAS OFTEN BEEN THIS WINTER...NAM IS WETTER AND
ALMOST CERTAINLY BETTER...AND SREF IS THE WETTEST BUT PROBABLY TOO
WET.  OUR CURRENT POPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF ALL MODEL POPS BUT
SHADED TOWARD THE WETTER MODELS...AND THIS LOOKS GOOD IN VIEW OF THE
QPF ISSUED BY THOSE MODELS.  TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO CORRESPOND WITH
THE HIGHER POPS...I.E. MILDER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY
COMPARED TO MOST MODEL VALUES.  THESE DECISIONS LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY OREGON AFTER MIDNIGHT
...SPREADING SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER BY 12Z AND CONTINUING MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS 3K-4K FT MSL FOR
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VERY INTERESTING FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST
IS A SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. MODELS QPF
IS LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SW IDAHO...AND HAVE
TRENDED LOWER IN POPS AND QPF THERE. TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP
OVERNIGHT BY CLOUD COVER...AND THEN HELD DOWN TOMORROW BY CLOUDS
LINGERING BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS MUCH
STRONGER...BUT IS FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF ARE IN SE OREGON FOR THAT
SYSTEM. THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER.
MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES MAY DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AS BOTH AIR AND ROAD
TEMPS SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE ARE NO ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS. IT IS NOTABLE...HOWEVER...THAT AFTER SUCH MILD WEATHER...
THIS RETURN TO WINTRY PRECIP MAY SURPRISE MANY FOLKS. LASTLY...
WINDS THIS EVENING IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET AFTER MANAGING TO GUST TO 45 MPH EARLIER TODAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT
THE COOL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO
PLATEAU SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SECOND
TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS66 KMFR 260047
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
447 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE ON TRACK AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE GFS...NAM
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVES ONTO OUR
NORTHERN COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NOSE OF A 125 KT JET NUDGES INTO THE REGION
AND BY THURSDAY EVENING THE ARE IS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION...BOTH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING
LAPSE RATES TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING A COOL POOL OF LESS THAN -25C MOVES DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEARSHORE WITH MODERATE
ONSHORE 700 MB FLOW. AS THE SURFACE HEATS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A
COLD POOL AT 500 MB NEAR -28C OVER MOST OF THE AREA ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE WEST SIDE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY, MARCH 1ST THROUGH WED NIGHT, MARCH 5TH...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN SHORT, MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY JET STREAM EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 130 WEST
LONGITUDE AND, THEREFORE, TRACK THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW FURTHER WESTWARD. THIS WOULD GIVE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOME
TIME TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEFORE
COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITH
MODERATELY LOW SNOW LEVELS OVER THE AREA, HAS INCREASED FROM LOW TO
NOW MODERATE.

SPECIFICALLY, THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE FLOW OVER THE AREA FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD SUCH THAT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD START ARRIVING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUS, AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL RIVAL THE COLD
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK, WE EXPECT A
SEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY AND MODERATE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY VERY WELL BE SOME OF THE COLDER SHOWERY
DAYS WE`VE SEEN, THUS FAR, THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 40S AND BELOW FREEZING HIGHS ABOVE MOST
5000 FOOT ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET. DETAILS RELATED TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATEST ON THE
WEST SIDE ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE UNDER A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY
AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE FRUIT GROWING AREAS
CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE... A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUATION OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING AT THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL BRING
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS TURNING
INTO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN,
WITH POSSIBLE TERRAIN OBSCURATION.  ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 420 PM PST, WEDNESDAY 25 FEB, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND WINDS SHIFT TO ONSHORE...THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...AND COULD EVEN PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MSC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM
  PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY
 FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MAS/JRS/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 260047
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
447 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE ON TRACK AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE GFS...NAM
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVES ONTO OUR
NORTHERN COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NOSE OF A 125 KT JET NUDGES INTO THE REGION
AND BY THURSDAY EVENING THE ARE IS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION...BOTH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING
LAPSE RATES TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING A COOL POOL OF LESS THAN -25C MOVES DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEARSHORE WITH MODERATE
ONSHORE 700 MB FLOW. AS THE SURFACE HEATS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A
COLD POOL AT 500 MB NEAR -28C OVER MOST OF THE AREA ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE WEST SIDE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY, MARCH 1ST THROUGH WED NIGHT, MARCH 5TH...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN SHORT, MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY JET STREAM EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 130 WEST
LONGITUDE AND, THEREFORE, TRACK THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW FURTHER WESTWARD. THIS WOULD GIVE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOME
TIME TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEFORE
COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITH
MODERATELY LOW SNOW LEVELS OVER THE AREA, HAS INCREASED FROM LOW TO
NOW MODERATE.

SPECIFICALLY, THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE FLOW OVER THE AREA FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD SUCH THAT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD START ARRIVING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUS, AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL RIVAL THE COLD
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK, WE EXPECT A
SEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY AND MODERATE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY VERY WELL BE SOME OF THE COLDER SHOWERY
DAYS WE`VE SEEN, THUS FAR, THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 40S AND BELOW FREEZING HIGHS ABOVE MOST
5000 FOOT ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET. DETAILS RELATED TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATEST ON THE
WEST SIDE ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE UNDER A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY
AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE FRUIT GROWING AREAS
CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE... A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUATION OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING AT THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL BRING
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS TURNING
INTO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN,
WITH POSSIBLE TERRAIN OBSCURATION.  ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 420 PM PST, WEDNESDAY 25 FEB, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND WINDS SHIFT TO ONSHORE...THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...AND COULD EVEN PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MSC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM
  PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY
 FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MAS/JRS/JRS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 260047
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
447 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE ON TRACK AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE GFS...NAM
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVES ONTO OUR
NORTHERN COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NOSE OF A 125 KT JET NUDGES INTO THE REGION
AND BY THURSDAY EVENING THE ARE IS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION...BOTH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING
LAPSE RATES TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING A COOL POOL OF LESS THAN -25C MOVES DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEARSHORE WITH MODERATE
ONSHORE 700 MB FLOW. AS THE SURFACE HEATS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A
COLD POOL AT 500 MB NEAR -28C OVER MOST OF THE AREA ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE WEST SIDE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY, MARCH 1ST THROUGH WED NIGHT, MARCH 5TH...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN SHORT, MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY JET STREAM EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 130 WEST
LONGITUDE AND, THEREFORE, TRACK THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW FURTHER WESTWARD. THIS WOULD GIVE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOME
TIME TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEFORE
COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITH
MODERATELY LOW SNOW LEVELS OVER THE AREA, HAS INCREASED FROM LOW TO
NOW MODERATE.

SPECIFICALLY, THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE FLOW OVER THE AREA FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD SUCH THAT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD START ARRIVING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUS, AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL RIVAL THE COLD
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK, WE EXPECT A
SEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY AND MODERATE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY VERY WELL BE SOME OF THE COLDER SHOWERY
DAYS WE`VE SEEN, THUS FAR, THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 40S AND BELOW FREEZING HIGHS ABOVE MOST
5000 FOOT ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET. DETAILS RELATED TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATEST ON THE
WEST SIDE ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE UNDER A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY
AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE FRUIT GROWING AREAS
CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE... A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUATION OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING AT THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL BRING
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS TURNING
INTO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN,
WITH POSSIBLE TERRAIN OBSCURATION.  ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 420 PM PST, WEDNESDAY 25 FEB, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND WINDS SHIFT TO ONSHORE...THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...AND COULD EVEN PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MSC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM
  PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY
 FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MAS/JRS/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 260047
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
447 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE ON TRACK AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE GFS...NAM
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVES ONTO OUR
NORTHERN COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NOSE OF A 125 KT JET NUDGES INTO THE REGION
AND BY THURSDAY EVENING THE ARE IS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION...BOTH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING
LAPSE RATES TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING A COOL POOL OF LESS THAN -25C MOVES DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEARSHORE WITH MODERATE
ONSHORE 700 MB FLOW. AS THE SURFACE HEATS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A
COLD POOL AT 500 MB NEAR -28C OVER MOST OF THE AREA ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE WEST SIDE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY, MARCH 1ST THROUGH WED NIGHT, MARCH 5TH...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN SHORT, MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY JET STREAM EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 130 WEST
LONGITUDE AND, THEREFORE, TRACK THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW FURTHER WESTWARD. THIS WOULD GIVE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOME
TIME TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEFORE
COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITH
MODERATELY LOW SNOW LEVELS OVER THE AREA, HAS INCREASED FROM LOW TO
NOW MODERATE.

SPECIFICALLY, THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE FLOW OVER THE AREA FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD SUCH THAT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD START ARRIVING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUS, AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL RIVAL THE COLD
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK, WE EXPECT A
SEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY AND MODERATE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY VERY WELL BE SOME OF THE COLDER SHOWERY
DAYS WE`VE SEEN, THUS FAR, THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 40S AND BELOW FREEZING HIGHS ABOVE MOST
5000 FOOT ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET. DETAILS RELATED TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATEST ON THE
WEST SIDE ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE UNDER A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY
AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE FRUIT GROWING AREAS
CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE... A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUATION OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING AT THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING WILL BRING
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS TURNING
INTO MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN,
WITH POSSIBLE TERRAIN OBSCURATION.  ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 420 PM PST, WEDNESDAY 25 FEB, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND WINDS SHIFT TO ONSHORE...THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...AND COULD EVEN PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MSC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM
  PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY
 FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MAS/JRS/JRS



000
FXUS66 KMFR 252300
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
300 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE ON TRACK AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE GFS...NAM
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVES ONTO OUR
NORTHERN COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NOSE OF A 125 KT JET NUDGES INTO THE REGION
AND BY THURSDAY EVENING THE ARE IS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION...BOTH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING
LAPSE RATES TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING A COOL POOL OF LESS THAN -25C MOVES DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEARSHORE WITH MODERATE
ONSHORE 700 MB FLOW. AS THE SURFACE HEATS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A
COLD POOL AT 500 MB NEAR -28C OVER MOST OF THE AREA ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE WEST SIDE FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY, MARCH 1ST THROUGH WED NIGHT, MARCH 5TH...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN SHORT, MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY JET STREAM EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 130 WEST
LONGITUDE AND, THEREFORE, TRACK THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW FURTHER WESTWARD. THIS WOULD GIVE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOME
TIME TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEFORE
COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITH
MODERATELY LOW SNOW LEVELS OVER THE AREA, HAS INCREASED FROM LOW TO
NOW MODERATE.

SPECIFICALLY, THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE FLOW OVER THE AREA FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD SUCH THAT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD START ARRIVING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUS, AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL RIVAL THE COLD
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK, WE EXPECT A
SEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY AND MODERATE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY VERY WELL BE SOME OF THE COLDER SHOWERY
DAYS WE`VE SEEN, THUS FAR, THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 40S AND BELOW FREEZING HIGHS ABOVE MOST
5000 FOOT ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET. DETAILS RELATED TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATEST ON THE
WEST SIDE ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE UNDER A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY
AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE FRUIT GROWING AREAS
CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES. BTL


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES BEGINNING
LATE THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. SOME
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 915 AM PST, WEDNESDAY 25 FEB, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF
THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
AT TIMES...AND COULD EVEN PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

SVEN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 252300
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
300 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE ON TRACK AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE GFS...NAM
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVES ONTO OUR
NORTHERN COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NOSE OF A 125 KT JET NUDGES INTO THE REGION
AND BY THURSDAY EVENING THE ARE IS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION...BOTH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING
LAPSE RATES TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING A COOL POOL OF LESS THAN -25C MOVES DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEARSHORE WITH MODERATE
ONSHORE 700 MB FLOW. AS THE SURFACE HEATS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A
COLD POOL AT 500 MB NEAR -28C OVER MOST OF THE AREA ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE WEST SIDE FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY, MARCH 1ST THROUGH WED NIGHT, MARCH 5TH...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN SHORT, MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY JET STREAM EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 130 WEST
LONGITUDE AND, THEREFORE, TRACK THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW FURTHER WESTWARD. THIS WOULD GIVE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOME
TIME TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEFORE
COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITH
MODERATELY LOW SNOW LEVELS OVER THE AREA, HAS INCREASED FROM LOW TO
NOW MODERATE.

SPECIFICALLY, THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE FLOW OVER THE AREA FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD SUCH THAT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD START ARRIVING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUS, AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL RIVAL THE COLD
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK, WE EXPECT A
SEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY AND MODERATE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY VERY WELL BE SOME OF THE COLDER SHOWERY
DAYS WE`VE SEEN, THUS FAR, THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 40S AND BELOW FREEZING HIGHS ABOVE MOST
5000 FOOT ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET. DETAILS RELATED TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATEST ON THE
WEST SIDE ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE UNDER A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY
AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE FRUIT GROWING AREAS
CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES. BTL


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES BEGINNING
LATE THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. SOME
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 915 AM PST, WEDNESDAY 25 FEB, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF
THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
AT TIMES...AND COULD EVEN PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

SVEN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 252300
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
300 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE ON TRACK AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE GFS...NAM
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVES ONTO OUR
NORTHERN COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NOSE OF A 125 KT JET NUDGES INTO THE REGION
AND BY THURSDAY EVENING THE ARE IS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION...BOTH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING
LAPSE RATES TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING A COOL POOL OF LESS THAN -25C MOVES DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEARSHORE WITH MODERATE
ONSHORE 700 MB FLOW. AS THE SURFACE HEATS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A
COLD POOL AT 500 MB NEAR -28C OVER MOST OF THE AREA ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE WEST SIDE FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY, MARCH 1ST THROUGH WED NIGHT, MARCH 5TH...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN SHORT, MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY JET STREAM EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 130 WEST
LONGITUDE AND, THEREFORE, TRACK THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW FURTHER WESTWARD. THIS WOULD GIVE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOME
TIME TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEFORE
COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITH
MODERATELY LOW SNOW LEVELS OVER THE AREA, HAS INCREASED FROM LOW TO
NOW MODERATE.

SPECIFICALLY, THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE FLOW OVER THE AREA FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD SUCH THAT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD START ARRIVING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUS, AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL RIVAL THE COLD
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK, WE EXPECT A
SEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY AND MODERATE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY VERY WELL BE SOME OF THE COLDER SHOWERY
DAYS WE`VE SEEN, THUS FAR, THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 40S AND BELOW FREEZING HIGHS ABOVE MOST
5000 FOOT ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET. DETAILS RELATED TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATEST ON THE
WEST SIDE ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE UNDER A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY
AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE FRUIT GROWING AREAS
CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES. BTL


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES BEGINNING
LATE THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. SOME
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 915 AM PST, WEDNESDAY 25 FEB, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF
THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
AT TIMES...AND COULD EVEN PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

SVEN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 252300
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
300 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE ON TRACK AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE GFS...NAM
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVES ONTO OUR
NORTHERN COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NOSE OF A 125 KT JET NUDGES INTO THE REGION
AND BY THURSDAY EVENING THE ARE IS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION...BOTH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE JET DYNAMICS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING
LAPSE RATES TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING A COOL POOL OF LESS THAN -25C MOVES DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEARSHORE WITH MODERATE
ONSHORE 700 MB FLOW. AS THE SURFACE HEATS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A
COLD POOL AT 500 MB NEAR -28C OVER MOST OF THE AREA ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE WEST SIDE FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY, MARCH 1ST THROUGH WED NIGHT, MARCH 5TH...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN SHORT, MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
WESTWARD WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY JET STREAM EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 130 WEST
LONGITUDE AND, THEREFORE, TRACK THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW FURTHER WESTWARD. THIS WOULD GIVE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOME
TIME TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEFORE
COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITH
MODERATELY LOW SNOW LEVELS OVER THE AREA, HAS INCREASED FROM LOW TO
NOW MODERATE.

SPECIFICALLY, THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE FLOW OVER THE AREA FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD SUCH THAT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD START ARRIVING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUS, AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL RIVAL THE COLD
LOW TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK, WE EXPECT A
SEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY AND MODERATE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY VERY WELL BE SOME OF THE COLDER SHOWERY
DAYS WE`VE SEEN, THUS FAR, THIS WINTER WITH HIGHS IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY LIKELY TO BE IN THE 40S AND BELOW FREEZING HIGHS ABOVE MOST
5000 FOOT ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET. DETAILS RELATED TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GREATEST ON THE
WEST SIDE ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE UNDER A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS LOOK AS IF THEY WILL BE CHILLY
AGAIN, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR PRIMARY STONE FRUIT GROWING AREAS
CURRENTLY SENSITIVE TO SUCH TEMPERATURES. BTL


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES BEGINNING
LATE THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. SOME
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 915 AM PST, WEDNESDAY 25 FEB, 2015... HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF
THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
AT TIMES...AND COULD EVEN PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

SVEN




000
FXUS66 KPDT 252216
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
215 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WINTER WEATHER IS
RETURNING THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5000 FEET. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS
COMING IN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES WILL BE SOMEWHAT RAINSHADOWED...SO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE CREST. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
ABOVE 3000 TO 3500 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED. CENTRAL OREGON...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...AND THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES.
AGAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE LOW WILL THEN
TRACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY...BRINGING COLDER AIR AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AS
LOW AS 1500 FEET ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL...FURTHER EVALUATION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS IN CASE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO CENTRAL OREGON BRINGS HEAVIER SNOW.  COBB

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ONE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND CARVE OUT
MORE OF A TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL ON THE
COLDEST AIR REMAINING EAST OF THE REGION BUT TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  ML

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. AFTER 04Z TAF SITES WILL HAVE MVFR/LOW VFR
CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z AND
HAVE MENTIONED -SHRA AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 05Z (02Z AT KYKM). THE
LOWER CEILINGS IN -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z ON THURSDAY
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  50  36  48 /  60  60  50  50
ALW  38  51  37  49 /  50  60  30  40
PSC  37  53  36  52 /  50  40  40  30
YKM  33  51  34  48 /  40  30  60  60
HRI  36  53  36  51 /  50  50  50  50
ELN  36  51  34  49 /  50  40  60  60
RDM  31  51  31  44 /  40  50  60  70
LGD  33  48  28  47 /  60  60  40  50
GCD  34  49  29  47 /  60  60  60  70
DLS  40  56  39  52 /  50  50  60  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY
     ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/93/93









000
FXUS66 KPDT 252216
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
215 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WINTER WEATHER IS
RETURNING THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5000 FEET. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS
COMING IN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES WILL BE SOMEWHAT RAINSHADOWED...SO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE CREST. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
ABOVE 3000 TO 3500 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED. CENTRAL OREGON...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...AND THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES.
AGAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE LOW WILL THEN
TRACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY...BRINGING COLDER AIR AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AS
LOW AS 1500 FEET ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL...FURTHER EVALUATION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS IN CASE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO CENTRAL OREGON BRINGS HEAVIER SNOW.  COBB

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ONE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND CARVE OUT
MORE OF A TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL ON THE
COLDEST AIR REMAINING EAST OF THE REGION BUT TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  ML

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. AFTER 04Z TAF SITES WILL HAVE MVFR/LOW VFR
CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z AND
HAVE MENTIONED -SHRA AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 05Z (02Z AT KYKM). THE
LOWER CEILINGS IN -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z ON THURSDAY
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  50  36  48 /  60  60  50  50
ALW  38  51  37  49 /  50  60  30  40
PSC  37  53  36  52 /  50  40  40  30
YKM  33  51  34  48 /  40  30  60  60
HRI  36  53  36  51 /  50  50  50  50
ELN  36  51  34  49 /  50  40  60  60
RDM  31  51  31  44 /  40  50  60  70
LGD  33  48  28  47 /  60  60  40  50
GCD  34  49  29  47 /  60  60  60  70
DLS  40  56  39  52 /  50  50  60  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY
     ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/93/93








000
FXUS66 KPDT 252216
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
215 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WINTER WEATHER IS
RETURNING THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5000 FEET. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS
COMING IN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES WILL BE SOMEWHAT RAINSHADOWED...SO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE CREST. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
ABOVE 3000 TO 3500 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED. CENTRAL OREGON...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...AND THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES.
AGAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE LOW WILL THEN
TRACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY...BRINGING COLDER AIR AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AS
LOW AS 1500 FEET ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL...FURTHER EVALUATION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS IN CASE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO CENTRAL OREGON BRINGS HEAVIER SNOW.  COBB

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ONE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND CARVE OUT
MORE OF A TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL ON THE
COLDEST AIR REMAINING EAST OF THE REGION BUT TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  ML

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. AFTER 04Z TAF SITES WILL HAVE MVFR/LOW VFR
CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z AND
HAVE MENTIONED -SHRA AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 05Z (02Z AT KYKM). THE
LOWER CEILINGS IN -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z ON THURSDAY
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  50  36  48 /  60  60  50  50
ALW  38  51  37  49 /  50  60  30  40
PSC  37  53  36  52 /  50  40  40  30
YKM  33  51  34  48 /  40  30  60  60
HRI  36  53  36  51 /  50  50  50  50
ELN  36  51  34  49 /  50  40  60  60
RDM  31  51  31  44 /  40  50  60  70
LGD  33  48  28  47 /  60  60  40  50
GCD  34  49  29  47 /  60  60  60  70
DLS  40  56  39  52 /  50  50  60  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY
     ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/93/93









000
FXUS66 KPDT 252216
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
215 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WINTER WEATHER IS
RETURNING THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO NEAR 3000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5000 FEET. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS
COMING IN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES WILL BE SOMEWHAT RAINSHADOWED...SO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE CREST. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD
ABOVE 3000 TO 3500 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED. CENTRAL OREGON...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...AND THE NORTHERN BLUES WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES.
AGAIN...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE LOW WILL THEN
TRACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY...BRINGING COLDER AIR AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AS
LOW AS 1500 FEET ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY MORNING. STILL...FURTHER EVALUATION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS IN CASE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO CENTRAL OREGON BRINGS HEAVIER SNOW.  COBB

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ONE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND CARVE OUT
MORE OF A TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL ON THE
COLDEST AIR REMAINING EAST OF THE REGION BUT TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  ML

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. AFTER 04Z TAF SITES WILL HAVE MVFR/LOW VFR
CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z AND
HAVE MENTIONED -SHRA AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 05Z (02Z AT KYKM). THE
LOWER CEILINGS IN -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z ON THURSDAY
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  50  36  48 /  60  60  50  50
ALW  38  51  37  49 /  50  60  30  40
PSC  37  53  36  52 /  50  40  40  30
YKM  33  51  34  48 /  40  30  60  60
HRI  36  53  36  51 /  50  50  50  50
ELN  36  51  34  49 /  50  40  60  60
RDM  31  51  31  44 /  40  50  60  70
LGD  33  48  28  47 /  60  60  40  50
GCD  34  49  29  47 /  60  60  60  70
DLS  40  56  39  52 /  50  50  60  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY
     ORZ506.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY
     ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/93/93








000
FXUS66 KPQR 252211
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
210 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS MONDAY
BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND EXPECT HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 FEET AND
EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES. OTHERWISE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOW LANDS AND
AROUND 0.25 FOR THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THE MORE
STEADY RAIN...ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT...IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

A 115+KT JET COMBINED WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY A BIT...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 120KT
UPPER JET MAX INCREASES LIFT OVER THE AREA. CAN EXPECT 0.2 TO 0.4
INCH OF RAIN FOR THE LOW LANDS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET...AND EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR
THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRIDAY. THIS INSTABILITY
MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF A OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE. IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

.LONG TERM...DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD
AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING
THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN
LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY
SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND SOME OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. A LARGER AREA
OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MAY
DROP COASTAL CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY TO IFR AS WELL AS MOVE MVFR
CIGS INLAND THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH AROUND 04Z THU WHEN
CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FEET WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NW WIND AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON PER BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. RADAR SHOWS AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRIEFLY SHIFTING WINDS SW BEFORE THEY
RETURN TO NW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

A SERIES OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE NE PAC THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMAL LOW ALONG THE N CAL AND
S OREGON COAST. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...NLY GUSTS TO 25 KT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY GUSTS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL
QUITE LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. SEAS LOOK
TO STAY WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
BOWEN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 252211
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
210 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS MONDAY
BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND EXPECT HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 FEET AND
EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES. OTHERWISE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOW LANDS AND
AROUND 0.25 FOR THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THE MORE
STEADY RAIN...ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT...IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

A 115+KT JET COMBINED WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY A BIT...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 120KT
UPPER JET MAX INCREASES LIFT OVER THE AREA. CAN EXPECT 0.2 TO 0.4
INCH OF RAIN FOR THE LOW LANDS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET...AND EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR
THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRIDAY. THIS INSTABILITY
MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF A OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE. IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

.LONG TERM...DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD
AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING
THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN
LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY
SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND SOME OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. A LARGER AREA
OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MAY
DROP COASTAL CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY TO IFR AS WELL AS MOVE MVFR
CIGS INLAND THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH AROUND 04Z THU WHEN
CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FEET WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NW WIND AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON PER BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. RADAR SHOWS AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRIEFLY SHIFTING WINDS SW BEFORE THEY
RETURN TO NW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

A SERIES OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE NE PAC THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMAL LOW ALONG THE N CAL AND
S OREGON COAST. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...NLY GUSTS TO 25 KT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY GUSTS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL
QUITE LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. SEAS LOOK
TO STAY WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
BOWEN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 252211
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
210 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS MONDAY
BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND EXPECT HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 FEET AND
EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES. OTHERWISE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOW LANDS AND
AROUND 0.25 FOR THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THE MORE
STEADY RAIN...ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT...IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

A 115+KT JET COMBINED WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY A BIT...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 120KT
UPPER JET MAX INCREASES LIFT OVER THE AREA. CAN EXPECT 0.2 TO 0.4
INCH OF RAIN FOR THE LOW LANDS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET...AND EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR
THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRIDAY. THIS INSTABILITY
MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF A OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE. IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

.LONG TERM...DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD
AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING
THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN
LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY
SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND SOME OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. A LARGER AREA
OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MAY
DROP COASTAL CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY TO IFR AS WELL AS MOVE MVFR
CIGS INLAND THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH AROUND 04Z THU WHEN
CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FEET WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NW WIND AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON PER BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. RADAR SHOWS AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRIEFLY SHIFTING WINDS SW BEFORE THEY
RETURN TO NW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

A SERIES OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE NE PAC THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMAL LOW ALONG THE N CAL AND
S OREGON COAST. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...NLY GUSTS TO 25 KT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY GUSTS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL
QUITE LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. SEAS LOOK
TO STAY WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
BOWEN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 252211
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
210 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS MONDAY
BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND EXPECT HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 FEET AND
EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES. OTHERWISE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOW LANDS AND
AROUND 0.25 FOR THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THE MORE
STEADY RAIN...ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT...IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

A 115+KT JET COMBINED WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY A BIT...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 120KT
UPPER JET MAX INCREASES LIFT OVER THE AREA. CAN EXPECT 0.2 TO 0.4
INCH OF RAIN FOR THE LOW LANDS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET...AND EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR
THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRIDAY. THIS INSTABILITY
MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF A OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE. IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

.LONG TERM...DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD
AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING
THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN
LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY
SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND SOME OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. A LARGER AREA
OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MAY
DROP COASTAL CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY TO IFR AS WELL AS MOVE MVFR
CIGS INLAND THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH AROUND 04Z THU WHEN
CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FEET WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NW WIND AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON PER BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. RADAR SHOWS AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRIEFLY SHIFTING WINDS SW BEFORE THEY
RETURN TO NW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

A SERIES OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE NE PAC THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMAL LOW ALONG THE N CAL AND
S OREGON COAST. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...NLY GUSTS TO 25 KT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY GUSTS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL
QUITE LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. SEAS LOOK
TO STAY WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
BOWEN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 252211
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
210 PM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT JET STREAM COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NW. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND CLOUDS MONDAY
BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD
ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND EXPECT HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 FEET AND
EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES. OTHERWISE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOW LANDS AND
AROUND 0.25 FOR THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THE MORE
STEADY RAIN...ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT...IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

A 115+KT JET COMBINED WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY A BIT...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 120KT
UPPER JET MAX INCREASES LIFT OVER THE AREA. CAN EXPECT 0.2 TO 0.4
INCH OF RAIN FOR THE LOW LANDS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
RISE TO AROUND 5000 FEET...AND EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR
THE CASCADES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRIDAY. THIS INSTABILITY
MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS MODELS
ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF A OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE. IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE
MOISTURE AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT WITH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE CASCADE
PASSES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FORM A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND ARIZONA SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE LOW WITH SHOWERS
DWINDLING AWAY OVER THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES BUT THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUNSHINE AS MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER REX BLOCK
WILL TRY TO SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TJ

.LONG TERM...DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SECOND ROUND OF COLD
AIR ARRIVES HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY...REINFORCING
THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ONCE AGAIN
LATE MONDAY. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT AS FAR AS A SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR AREA...BUT MODELS DO
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY EJECT THE SYSTEM OUT. WILL MOST LIKELY
SEE COLD AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/27
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND SOME OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. A LARGER AREA
OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MAY
DROP COASTAL CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY TO IFR AS WELL AS MOVE MVFR
CIGS INLAND THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH AROUND 04Z THU WHEN
CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FEET WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...NW WIND AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON PER BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. RADAR SHOWS AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRIEFLY SHIFTING WINDS SW BEFORE THEY
RETURN TO NW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

A SERIES OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE NE PAC THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMAL LOW ALONG THE N CAL AND
S OREGON COAST. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...NLY GUSTS TO 25 KT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY GUSTS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL
QUITE LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. SEAS LOOK
TO STAY WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
BOWEN/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND


THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 252200
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
300 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VERY INTERESTING FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST
IS A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. MODELS QPF
IS LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SW IDAHO...AND HAVE
TRENDED LOWER IN POPS AND QPF THERE. TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP
OVERNIGHT BY CLOUD COVER...AND THEN HELD DOWN TOMORROW BY CLOUDS
LINGERING BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS MUCH
STRONGER...BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF ARE IN SE OREGON FOR THIS
SYSTEM. THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER.
MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES MAY DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AS BOTH AIR AND ROAD
TEMPS SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE ARE NO ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS. IT IS NOTABLE...HOWEVER...THAT AFTER SUCH MILD
WEATHER...THIS RETURN TO WINTRY PRECIP MAY SURPRISE MANY FOLKS.
LASTLY...WINDS THIS EVENING IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AFTER MANAGING TO GUST TO 45 MPH EARLIER
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT
THE COOL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO
PLATEAU SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SECOND
TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW... WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS INCREASING AND
LOWERING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY OREGON...SPREADING SOUTH TO THE NEVADA
BORDER BY 12Z AND CONTINUING MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS 3K-4K FT MSL. SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWEST
10-20 KTS EXCEPT 20-30 KTS THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF
KBOI... DIMINISHING TO 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER 03Z. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 252200
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
300 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VERY INTERESTING FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST
IS A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. MODELS QPF
IS LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SW IDAHO...AND HAVE
TRENDED LOWER IN POPS AND QPF THERE. TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP
OVERNIGHT BY CLOUD COVER...AND THEN HELD DOWN TOMORROW BY CLOUDS
LINGERING BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS MUCH
STRONGER...BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF ARE IN SE OREGON FOR THIS
SYSTEM. THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER.
MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES MAY DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AS BOTH AIR AND ROAD
TEMPS SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE ARE NO ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS. IT IS NOTABLE...HOWEVER...THAT AFTER SUCH MILD
WEATHER...THIS RETURN TO WINTRY PRECIP MAY SURPRISE MANY FOLKS.
LASTLY...WINDS THIS EVENING IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AFTER MANAGING TO GUST TO 45 MPH EARLIER
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT
THE COOL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO
PLATEAU SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SECOND
TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW... WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS INCREASING AND
LOWERING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY OREGON...SPREADING SOUTH TO THE NEVADA
BORDER BY 12Z AND CONTINUING MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS 3K-4K FT MSL. SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWEST
10-20 KTS EXCEPT 20-30 KTS THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF
KBOI... DIMINISHING TO 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER 03Z. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 252200
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
300 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VERY INTERESTING FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST
IS A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. MODELS QPF
IS LOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SW IDAHO...AND HAVE
TRENDED LOWER IN POPS AND QPF THERE. TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP
OVERNIGHT BY CLOUD COVER...AND THEN HELD DOWN TOMORROW BY CLOUDS
LINGERING BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS MUCH
STRONGER...BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF ARE IN SE OREGON FOR THIS
SYSTEM. THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER.
MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES MAY DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AS BOTH AIR AND ROAD
TEMPS SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE ARE NO ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS. IT IS NOTABLE...HOWEVER...THAT AFTER SUCH MILD
WEATHER...THIS RETURN TO WINTRY PRECIP MAY SURPRISE MANY FOLKS.
LASTLY...WINDS THIS EVENING IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AFTER MANAGING TO GUST TO 45 MPH EARLIER
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT
THE COOL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO
PLATEAU SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SECOND
TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW... WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS INCREASING AND
LOWERING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY OREGON...SPREADING SOUTH TO THE NEVADA
BORDER BY 12Z AND CONTINUING MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS 3K-4K FT MSL. SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWEST
10-20 KTS EXCEPT 20-30 KTS THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF
KBOI... DIMINISHING TO 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER 03Z. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS66 KPDT 251721 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
930 AM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TONIGHTS WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS
COMING IN SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN PREDICTED SO WILL MONITOR IN CASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO NEED TO BE INCREASED EARLY. IT WILL
OTHERWISE BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY...BUT WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE.  COBB

AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z THIS
EVENING. AFTER 04Z TAF SITES WILL HAVE MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z AND HAVE MENTIONED
-SHRA AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 05Z (02Z AT KYKM). THE LOWER CEILINGS
IN -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ML

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 359 AM PST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SATELLITE INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. TEMPS TODAY
ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THERE WILL BE LIGHT RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW. A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM. LOWER ELEVATION RAIN WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW LIKELY. BASED
ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS KEEP THE FREEZING LEVEL FAIRLY STEADY THE NEXT
FEW DAYS RESULTING IN A SNOW LEVEL NEAR 4000 FEET. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THE AREA
WILL BE UNDER A TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND FURTHER SOUTH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SOUTH LEVELS WILL DROP TO 2500 TO 3000 FEET SO MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL GET LIGHT SNOW. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY END ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MODEST SO
EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN GENERAL. A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING SO
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND THIS POINT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN ANOTHER
SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING TUESDAY WHILE
THE GFS BRINGS A WEAKER SYSTEM IN MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES IT OUT OF
THE AREA TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 2000 TO 3000 FEET MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT THEN LOWERS TO NEAR THE SURFACE ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOSTLY RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR DRY CONDITIONS IN THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND WE WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH FAIR WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY (HIGHS
AROUND FREEZING, LOWS 5 TO 25 ABOVE ZERO) BUT OTHER MODELS ARE NOT
AS COLD. HAVE BEGUN NUDGING THEM TOWARDS THE ECMWF IN CASE IT IS
RIGHT. PERRY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  37  49  36 /   0  50  40  60
ALW  53  38  49  36 /   0  50  40  60
PSC  55  36  52  36 /   0  40  30  60
YKM  53  34  49  34 /   0  40  30  70
HRI  55  36  52  36 /   0  40  40  60
ELN  54  34  47  33 /   0  50  40  70
RDM  53  31  50  30 /   0  30  30  70
LGD  50  32  46  31 /   0  50  50  60
GCD  51  31  46  30 /   0  40  50  70
DLS  56  39  53  38 /   0  40  40  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 251721 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
930 AM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TONIGHTS WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS
COMING IN SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN PREDICTED SO WILL MONITOR IN CASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO NEED TO BE INCREASED EARLY. IT WILL
OTHERWISE BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY...BUT WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE.  COBB

AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z THIS
EVENING. AFTER 04Z TAF SITES WILL HAVE MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z AND HAVE MENTIONED
-SHRA AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 05Z (02Z AT KYKM). THE LOWER CEILINGS
IN -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ML

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 359 AM PST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SATELLITE INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. TEMPS TODAY
ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THERE WILL BE LIGHT RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW. A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM. LOWER ELEVATION RAIN WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW LIKELY. BASED
ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS KEEP THE FREEZING LEVEL FAIRLY STEADY THE NEXT
FEW DAYS RESULTING IN A SNOW LEVEL NEAR 4000 FEET. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THE AREA
WILL BE UNDER A TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND FURTHER SOUTH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SOUTH LEVELS WILL DROP TO 2500 TO 3000 FEET SO MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL GET LIGHT SNOW. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY END ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MODEST SO
EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN GENERAL. A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING SO
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND THIS POINT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN ANOTHER
SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING TUESDAY WHILE
THE GFS BRINGS A WEAKER SYSTEM IN MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES IT OUT OF
THE AREA TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 2000 TO 3000 FEET MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT THEN LOWERS TO NEAR THE SURFACE ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOSTLY RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR DRY CONDITIONS IN THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND WE WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH FAIR WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY (HIGHS
AROUND FREEZING, LOWS 5 TO 25 ABOVE ZERO) BUT OTHER MODELS ARE NOT
AS COLD. HAVE BEGUN NUDGING THEM TOWARDS THE ECMWF IN CASE IT IS
RIGHT. PERRY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  37  49  36 /   0  50  40  60
ALW  53  38  49  36 /   0  50  40  60
PSC  55  36  52  36 /   0  40  30  60
YKM  53  34  49  34 /   0  40  30  70
HRI  55  36  52  36 /   0  40  40  60
ELN  54  34  47  33 /   0  50  40  70
RDM  53  31  50  30 /   0  30  30  70
LGD  50  32  46  31 /   0  50  50  60
GCD  51  31  46  30 /   0  40  50  70
DLS  56  39  53  38 /   0  40  40  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 251721 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
930 AM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TONIGHTS WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS
COMING IN SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN PREDICTED SO WILL MONITOR IN CASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO NEED TO BE INCREASED EARLY. IT WILL
OTHERWISE BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY...BUT WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE.  COBB

AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z THIS
EVENING. AFTER 04Z TAF SITES WILL HAVE MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z AND HAVE MENTIONED
-SHRA AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 05Z (02Z AT KYKM). THE LOWER CEILINGS
IN -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ML

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 359 AM PST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SATELLITE INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. TEMPS TODAY
ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THERE WILL BE LIGHT RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW. A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM. LOWER ELEVATION RAIN WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW LIKELY. BASED
ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS KEEP THE FREEZING LEVEL FAIRLY STEADY THE NEXT
FEW DAYS RESULTING IN A SNOW LEVEL NEAR 4000 FEET. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THE AREA
WILL BE UNDER A TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND FURTHER SOUTH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SOUTH LEVELS WILL DROP TO 2500 TO 3000 FEET SO MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL GET LIGHT SNOW. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY END ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MODEST SO
EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN GENERAL. A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING SO
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND THIS POINT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN ANOTHER
SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING TUESDAY WHILE
THE GFS BRINGS A WEAKER SYSTEM IN MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES IT OUT OF
THE AREA TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 2000 TO 3000 FEET MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT THEN LOWERS TO NEAR THE SURFACE ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOSTLY RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR DRY CONDITIONS IN THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND WE WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH FAIR WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY (HIGHS
AROUND FREEZING, LOWS 5 TO 25 ABOVE ZERO) BUT OTHER MODELS ARE NOT
AS COLD. HAVE BEGUN NUDGING THEM TOWARDS THE ECMWF IN CASE IT IS
RIGHT. PERRY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  37  49  36 /   0  50  40  60
ALW  53  38  49  36 /   0  50  40  60
PSC  55  36  52  36 /   0  40  30  60
YKM  53  34  49  34 /   0  40  30  70
HRI  55  36  52  36 /   0  40  40  60
ELN  54  34  47  33 /   0  50  40  70
RDM  53  31  50  30 /   0  30  30  70
LGD  50  32  46  31 /   0  50  50  60
GCD  51  31  46  30 /   0  40  50  70
DLS  56  39  53  38 /   0  40  40  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/







000
FXUS66 KPDT 251721 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
930 AM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE BIGGEST CHANGE MADE TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TONIGHTS WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS
COMING IN SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN PREDICTED SO WILL MONITOR IN CASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO NEED TO BE INCREASED EARLY. IT WILL
OTHERWISE BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY...BUT WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE.  COBB

AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z THIS
EVENING. AFTER 04Z TAF SITES WILL HAVE MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z AND HAVE MENTIONED
-SHRA AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 05Z (02Z AT KYKM). THE LOWER CEILINGS
IN -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ML

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 359 AM PST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SATELLITE INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. TEMPS TODAY
ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THERE WILL BE LIGHT RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW. A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM. LOWER ELEVATION RAIN WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW LIKELY. BASED
ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS KEEP THE FREEZING LEVEL FAIRLY STEADY THE NEXT
FEW DAYS RESULTING IN A SNOW LEVEL NEAR 4000 FEET. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. 94

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THE AREA
WILL BE UNDER A TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND FURTHER SOUTH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SOUTH LEVELS WILL DROP TO 2500 TO 3000 FEET SO MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL GET LIGHT SNOW. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY END ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MODEST SO
EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN GENERAL. A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING SO
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND THIS POINT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN ANOTHER
SYSTEM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING TUESDAY WHILE
THE GFS BRINGS A WEAKER SYSTEM IN MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES IT OUT OF
THE AREA TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 2000 TO 3000 FEET MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT THEN LOWERS TO NEAR THE SURFACE ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOSTLY RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR DRY CONDITIONS IN THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND WE WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
WITH FAIR WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY (HIGHS
AROUND FREEZING, LOWS 5 TO 25 ABOVE ZERO) BUT OTHER MODELS ARE NOT
AS COLD. HAVE BEGUN NUDGING THEM TOWARDS THE ECMWF IN CASE IT IS
RIGHT. PERRY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  37  49  36 /   0  50  40  60
ALW  53  38  49  36 /   0  50  40  60
PSC  55  36  52  36 /   0  40  30  60
YKM  53  34  49  34 /   0  40  30  70
HRI  55  36  52  36 /   0  40  40  60
ELN  54  34  47  33 /   0  50  40  70
RDM  53  31  50  30 /   0  30  30  70
LGD  50  32  46  31 /   0  50  50  60
GCD  51  31  46  30 /   0  40  50  70
DLS  56  39  53  38 /   0  40  40  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

82/







000
FXUS66 KMFR 251713
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 AM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE. MADE ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO THE EARLIER
TIMING OF PRECIP TO OUR NORTHERN COAST THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURE MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...BUT EVEN THOUGH IT IS LOOKING THINK ON THE SATELLITE IMAGES
THE VIEW FROM THE GROUND IS MUCH THINNER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH
THE MAJOR ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST, SO WHILE A LOT OF MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE THIS MORNING, NOTHING HAS BEEN CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW COMMENCED RIGHT ON TIME YESTERDAY, AND
AS A RESULT, DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN AS EXPECTED. 24 HOURS TRENDS
SHOW DEWPOINT INCREASES OF 5-10F IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 20F HIGHER. THIS INCREASE IN HUMIDITY HAS
PRODUCED AN AIRMASS MORE RESISTANT TO CHANGE, AND TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMER UP AS A RESULT - ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 18F WARMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. WE HAD SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS FROM THE CASCADES LAST
EVENING WHICH ALSO HELPED HOLD TEMPERATURES UP, BUT THAT IS NOW
DISSIPATING. THERE IS A LARGE SHIELD OF MARINE STRATUS OFFSHORE
WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CEILINGS OF 1500 TO 2500 FT OR
SO. IT HAS NOT REACHED THE COOS COAST YET, BUT IT WILL LIKELY
MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE PUSH NO LONGER LOOKS
DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE, SO THAT WAS REMOVED THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE FURTHER OFFSHORE
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY OPEN THE DOOR TO
A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, FIRST ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND THEN
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. WE`RE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

A TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW DROPS IN ALONG THE B.C. COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIGS IN WESTWARD AS IT MOVES OVER US
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME COLD AIR AND
DROP SNOW LEVELS TO THE HIGHER PASSES ON FRIDAY. SNOW TOTALS DON`T
LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE (ROUGHLY 3-6 INCHES OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS WITH AN INCH OR TWO IN THE EAST SIDE VALLEYS), BUT
GIVEN THE LONG STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER WE`VE HAD, IT WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WE HAVE OUT
(PDXSPSMFR) DETAILS THIS NICELY.

WE EXPECT A COOL, DRY WEEKEND AS A WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGE BUILDS IN,
BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE COAST WITH MVFR CIGS.
EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG THERE...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
DRIZZLE OR MIST. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
COAST RANGES JUST INLAND FROM PORT ORFORD AND NEAR THE UMPQUA DIVIDE
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. LOCAL IFR FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES BUT HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF KRBG AND
KMFR. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST WEDNESDAY 25 FEB 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING
MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AND A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
     MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251713
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 AM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE. MADE ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO THE EARLIER
TIMING OF PRECIP TO OUR NORTHERN COAST THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURE MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...BUT EVEN THOUGH IT IS LOOKING THINK ON THE SATELLITE IMAGES
THE VIEW FROM THE GROUND IS MUCH THINNER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH
THE MAJOR ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST, SO WHILE A LOT OF MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE THIS MORNING, NOTHING HAS BEEN CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW COMMENCED RIGHT ON TIME YESTERDAY, AND
AS A RESULT, DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN AS EXPECTED. 24 HOURS TRENDS
SHOW DEWPOINT INCREASES OF 5-10F IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 20F HIGHER. THIS INCREASE IN HUMIDITY HAS
PRODUCED AN AIRMASS MORE RESISTANT TO CHANGE, AND TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMER UP AS A RESULT - ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 18F WARMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. WE HAD SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS FROM THE CASCADES LAST
EVENING WHICH ALSO HELPED HOLD TEMPERATURES UP, BUT THAT IS NOW
DISSIPATING. THERE IS A LARGE SHIELD OF MARINE STRATUS OFFSHORE
WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CEILINGS OF 1500 TO 2500 FT OR
SO. IT HAS NOT REACHED THE COOS COAST YET, BUT IT WILL LIKELY
MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE PUSH NO LONGER LOOKS
DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE, SO THAT WAS REMOVED THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE FURTHER OFFSHORE
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY OPEN THE DOOR TO
A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, FIRST ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND THEN
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. WE`RE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

A TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW DROPS IN ALONG THE B.C. COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIGS IN WESTWARD AS IT MOVES OVER US
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME COLD AIR AND
DROP SNOW LEVELS TO THE HIGHER PASSES ON FRIDAY. SNOW TOTALS DON`T
LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE (ROUGHLY 3-6 INCHES OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS WITH AN INCH OR TWO IN THE EAST SIDE VALLEYS), BUT
GIVEN THE LONG STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER WE`VE HAD, IT WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WE HAVE OUT
(PDXSPSMFR) DETAILS THIS NICELY.

WE EXPECT A COOL, DRY WEEKEND AS A WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGE BUILDS IN,
BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE COAST WITH MVFR CIGS.
EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG THERE...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
DRIZZLE OR MIST. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
COAST RANGES JUST INLAND FROM PORT ORFORD AND NEAR THE UMPQUA DIVIDE
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. LOCAL IFR FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES BUT HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF KRBG AND
KMFR. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST WEDNESDAY 25 FEB 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING
MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AND A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
     MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 251713
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 AM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE. MADE ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO THE EARLIER
TIMING OF PRECIP TO OUR NORTHERN COAST THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURE MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...BUT EVEN THOUGH IT IS LOOKING THINK ON THE SATELLITE IMAGES
THE VIEW FROM THE GROUND IS MUCH THINNER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH
THE MAJOR ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST, SO WHILE A LOT OF MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE THIS MORNING, NOTHING HAS BEEN CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW COMMENCED RIGHT ON TIME YESTERDAY, AND
AS A RESULT, DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN AS EXPECTED. 24 HOURS TRENDS
SHOW DEWPOINT INCREASES OF 5-10F IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 20F HIGHER. THIS INCREASE IN HUMIDITY HAS
PRODUCED AN AIRMASS MORE RESISTANT TO CHANGE, AND TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMER UP AS A RESULT - ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 18F WARMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. WE HAD SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS FROM THE CASCADES LAST
EVENING WHICH ALSO HELPED HOLD TEMPERATURES UP, BUT THAT IS NOW
DISSIPATING. THERE IS A LARGE SHIELD OF MARINE STRATUS OFFSHORE
WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CEILINGS OF 1500 TO 2500 FT OR
SO. IT HAS NOT REACHED THE COOS COAST YET, BUT IT WILL LIKELY
MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE PUSH NO LONGER LOOKS
DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE, SO THAT WAS REMOVED THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE FURTHER OFFSHORE
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY OPEN THE DOOR TO
A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, FIRST ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND THEN
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. WE`RE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

A TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW DROPS IN ALONG THE B.C. COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIGS IN WESTWARD AS IT MOVES OVER US
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME COLD AIR AND
DROP SNOW LEVELS TO THE HIGHER PASSES ON FRIDAY. SNOW TOTALS DON`T
LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE (ROUGHLY 3-6 INCHES OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS WITH AN INCH OR TWO IN THE EAST SIDE VALLEYS), BUT
GIVEN THE LONG STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER WE`VE HAD, IT WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WE HAVE OUT
(PDXSPSMFR) DETAILS THIS NICELY.

WE EXPECT A COOL, DRY WEEKEND AS A WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGE BUILDS IN,
BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE COAST WITH MVFR CIGS.
EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG THERE...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
DRIZZLE OR MIST. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
COAST RANGES JUST INLAND FROM PORT ORFORD AND NEAR THE UMPQUA DIVIDE
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. LOCAL IFR FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES BUT HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF KRBG AND
KMFR. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST WEDNESDAY 25 FEB 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING
MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AND A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
     MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251713
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 AM PST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE. MADE ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO THE EARLIER
TIMING OF PRECIP TO OUR NORTHERN COAST THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURE MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...BUT EVEN THOUGH IT IS LOOKING THINK ON THE SATELLITE IMAGES
THE VIEW FROM THE GROUND IS MUCH THINNER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH
THE MAJOR ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST, SO WHILE A LOT OF MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE THIS MORNING, NOTHING HAS BEEN CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW COMMENCED RIGHT ON TIME YESTERDAY, AND
AS A RESULT, DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN AS EXPECTED. 24 HOURS TRENDS
SHOW DEWPOINT INCREASES OF 5-10F IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 20F HIGHER. THIS INCREASE IN HUMIDITY HAS
PRODUCED AN AIRMASS MORE RESISTANT TO CHANGE, AND TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMER UP AS A RESULT - ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 18F WARMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. WE HAD SOME BLOW OFF CIRRUS FROM THE CASCADES LAST
EVENING WHICH ALSO HELPED HOLD TEMPERATURES UP, BUT THAT IS NOW
DISSIPATING. THERE IS A LARGE SHIELD OF MARINE STRATUS OFFSHORE
WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CEILINGS OF 1500 TO 2500 FT OR
SO. IT HAS NOT REACHED THE COOS COAST YET, BUT IT WILL LIKELY
MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE PUSH NO LONGER LOOKS
DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE, SO THAT WAS REMOVED THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE FURTHER OFFSHORE
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY OPEN THE DOOR TO
A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, FIRST ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND THEN
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. WE`RE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

A TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW DROPS IN ALONG THE B.C. COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIGS IN WESTWARD AS IT MOVES OVER US
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME COLD AIR AND
DROP SNOW LEVELS TO THE HIGHER PASSES ON FRIDAY. SNOW TOTALS DON`T
LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE (ROUGHLY 3-6 INCHES OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS WITH AN INCH OR TWO IN THE EAST SIDE VALLEYS), BUT
GIVEN THE LONG STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER WE`VE HAD, IT WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WE HAVE OUT
(PDXSPSMFR) DETAILS THIS NICELY.

WE EXPECT A COOL, DRY WEEKEND AS A WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGE BUILDS IN,
BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE COAST WITH MVFR CIGS.
EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG THERE...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
DRIZZLE OR MIST. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
COAST RANGES JUST INLAND FROM PORT ORFORD AND NEAR THE UMPQUA DIVIDE
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. LOCAL IFR FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES BUT HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF KRBG AND
KMFR. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST WEDNESDAY 25 FEB 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH A BUILDING TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO BRING
MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AND A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
     MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$



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