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000
FXUS66 KPDT 011729 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR...UPDATE
1028 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY. ONLY CLOUDS THIS MORNING ON
SATELLITE ARE UPSLOPE STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND
IS CAPPED OFF BY WARMING ALOFT. EXPECT SOME MINIMAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S AND WINDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY.  94

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD
TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST A FEW
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 10K FEET AGL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS AND REMAIN
AOB 10 KTS...EXCEPT AT KDLS WHERE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE BTWN 15 TO
25 KTS. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 200 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY
AND TOMORROW. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE TWO STATE
AREA THURSDAY AND SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL PERIOD IS IN STORE
UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF RIDGE
WILL GIVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE CASCADES. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH AVERAGES ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR 15-25KT KDLS AFT 18-06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  68  46  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  71  42  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  69  39  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  70  41  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  67  40  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  64  31  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  64  38  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  64  35  70  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  71  45  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 011729 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR...UPDATE
1028 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY. ONLY CLOUDS THIS MORNING ON
SATELLITE ARE UPSLOPE STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND
IS CAPPED OFF BY WARMING ALOFT. EXPECT SOME MINIMAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S AND WINDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY.  94

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD
TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST A FEW
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 10K FEET AGL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS AND REMAIN
AOB 10 KTS...EXCEPT AT KDLS WHERE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE BTWN 15 TO
25 KTS. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 200 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY
AND TOMORROW. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE TWO STATE
AREA THURSDAY AND SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL PERIOD IS IN STORE
UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF RIDGE
WILL GIVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE CASCADES. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH AVERAGES ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR 15-25KT KDLS AFT 18-06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  68  46  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  71  42  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  69  39  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  70  41  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  67  40  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  64  31  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  64  38  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  64  35  70  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  71  45  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 011729 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR...UPDATE
1028 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY. ONLY CLOUDS THIS MORNING ON
SATELLITE ARE UPSLOPE STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND
IS CAPPED OFF BY WARMING ALOFT. EXPECT SOME MINIMAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S AND WINDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY.  94

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD
TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST A FEW
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 10K FEET AGL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS AND REMAIN
AOB 10 KTS...EXCEPT AT KDLS WHERE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE BTWN 15 TO
25 KTS. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 200 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY
AND TOMORROW. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE TWO STATE
AREA THURSDAY AND SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL PERIOD IS IN STORE
UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF RIDGE
WILL GIVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE CASCADES. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH AVERAGES ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR 15-25KT KDLS AFT 18-06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  68  46  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  71  42  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  69  39  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  70  41  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  67  40  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  64  31  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  64  38  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  64  35  70  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  71  45  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 011729 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR...UPDATE
1028 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY. ONLY CLOUDS THIS MORNING ON
SATELLITE ARE UPSLOPE STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND
IS CAPPED OFF BY WARMING ALOFT. EXPECT SOME MINIMAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S AND WINDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY.  94

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD
TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST A FEW
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 10K FEET AGL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS AND REMAIN
AOB 10 KTS...EXCEPT AT KDLS WHERE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE BTWN 15 TO
25 KTS. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 200 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY
AND TOMORROW. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE TWO STATE
AREA THURSDAY AND SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL PERIOD IS IN STORE
UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF RIDGE
WILL GIVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE CASCADES. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH AVERAGES ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR 15-25KT KDLS AFT 18-06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  68  46  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  71  42  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  69  39  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  70  41  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  67  40  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  64  31  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  64  38  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  64  35  70  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  71  45  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 011616
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
915 AM PDT WED OCT  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS AND MORE SUNSHINE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OUT AROUND 135W WILL
SLOWLY REACH THE COAST LATE THURSDAY AND ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. THE
RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST AND
COAST RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE ARE MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME IN THE 3000 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE ALONG THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND PART OF THE VALLEY AREAS..AND BACK TOWARD
THE NORTH COAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME LOCAL FOG WITH CEILINGS BELOW
500 FEET...AND SOME CIGS AROUND 1200 FT ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND
I5 CORRIDOR AREA. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND FOR A
WHILE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LAST REMAINING SHOWERS SEEM TO BE
MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH THE COOL AIR MASS OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA...TEMPS TODAY WILL LIKELY STAY A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 65
TO 70 RANGE INLAND.

AN UPPER RIDGE HAS ITS AXIS ANCHORED OUT NEAR 135W TODAY. THE MODELS
FORECAST A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PARTLY DUE TO A SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH INTO
MONTANA AND ITS TRAILING HIGHER PRESSURE...AND DUE TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THAT WILL LEAD TO A
COOLER AIR MASS EAST OF THE CASCADES. GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN VERY
LIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...SO WITH SOMEWHAT DAMP GROUND
CONTINUING...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY IN COMBINATION WITH COOL TEMPS. THE MODELS
SHOW MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DOWN THE VALLEY WITH A LIGHT
EAST FLOW IN THE GORGE ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT TURNS MORE EASTERLY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE EAST WIND THROUGH THE GORGE WILL
INCREASE THEN...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH OR SO POSSIBLE AROUND CORBETT.

THE COOL AIR MASS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO COOL
NIGHTTIME TEMPS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE MODELS FORECAST DEWPOINTS
STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S SO THIS MAY LIMIT HOW COOL WE DO GET...BUT
SOME UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY
NIGHT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. FEW CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH...WE
CAN EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
NORTH COAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SEEMS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OR BECOMES FLATTER WE COULD SEE
SOME RAIN PUSH INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT WIDE SPREAD RAIN EVENT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD BRING WITH
IT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. /64 &&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND AREAS ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER THIS
MORNING...IMPACTING KEUG AND KSPB. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THE FOG SHOULD CLEAR FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY AROUND 1630Z
AND NEAR KEUG AROUND 18Z. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT... BUT WILL BE TOO
WEAK TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
NEAR KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT VFR CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT BY 17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADIATION FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT WITH
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 9Z. TJ
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS WILL MAINTAIN N WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN OREGON WATERS...AND NE WINDS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.  THE
WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO
15 KT SOUTH OF NEWPORT. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD
THURSDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OFFSHORE...AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PRESSURE PATTERN FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN CONSTANT
SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTS FLIRTING WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD WILL BE MUCH WEAKER
AS A FRONT DECAYS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD MONDAY TO THE NORTH WITH A THERMAL TROUGH HANGING ON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND SATURDAY THEN BUILD AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET. TJ
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 011616
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
915 AM PDT WED OCT  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS AND MORE SUNSHINE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OUT AROUND 135W WILL
SLOWLY REACH THE COAST LATE THURSDAY AND ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. THE
RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST AND
COAST RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE ARE MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME IN THE 3000 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE ALONG THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND PART OF THE VALLEY AREAS..AND BACK TOWARD
THE NORTH COAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME LOCAL FOG WITH CEILINGS BELOW
500 FEET...AND SOME CIGS AROUND 1200 FT ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND
I5 CORRIDOR AREA. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND FOR A
WHILE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LAST REMAINING SHOWERS SEEM TO BE
MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH THE COOL AIR MASS OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA...TEMPS TODAY WILL LIKELY STAY A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 65
TO 70 RANGE INLAND.

AN UPPER RIDGE HAS ITS AXIS ANCHORED OUT NEAR 135W TODAY. THE MODELS
FORECAST A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PARTLY DUE TO A SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH INTO
MONTANA AND ITS TRAILING HIGHER PRESSURE...AND DUE TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THAT WILL LEAD TO A
COOLER AIR MASS EAST OF THE CASCADES. GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN VERY
LIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...SO WITH SOMEWHAT DAMP GROUND
CONTINUING...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY IN COMBINATION WITH COOL TEMPS. THE MODELS
SHOW MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DOWN THE VALLEY WITH A LIGHT
EAST FLOW IN THE GORGE ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT TURNS MORE EASTERLY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE EAST WIND THROUGH THE GORGE WILL
INCREASE THEN...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH OR SO POSSIBLE AROUND CORBETT.

THE COOL AIR MASS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO COOL
NIGHTTIME TEMPS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE MODELS FORECAST DEWPOINTS
STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S SO THIS MAY LIMIT HOW COOL WE DO GET...BUT
SOME UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY
NIGHT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. FEW CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH...WE
CAN EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
NORTH COAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SEEMS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OR BECOMES FLATTER WE COULD SEE
SOME RAIN PUSH INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT WIDE SPREAD RAIN EVENT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD BRING WITH
IT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. /64 &&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND AREAS ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER THIS
MORNING...IMPACTING KEUG AND KSPB. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THE FOG SHOULD CLEAR FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY AROUND 1630Z
AND NEAR KEUG AROUND 18Z. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT... BUT WILL BE TOO
WEAK TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
NEAR KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT VFR CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT BY 17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADIATION FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT WITH
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 9Z. TJ
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS WILL MAINTAIN N WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN OREGON WATERS...AND NE WINDS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.  THE
WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO
15 KT SOUTH OF NEWPORT. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD
THURSDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OFFSHORE...AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PRESSURE PATTERN FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN CONSTANT
SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTS FLIRTING WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD WILL BE MUCH WEAKER
AS A FRONT DECAYS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD MONDAY TO THE NORTH WITH A THERMAL TROUGH HANGING ON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND SATURDAY THEN BUILD AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET. TJ
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 011616
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
915 AM PDT WED OCT  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS AND MORE SUNSHINE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OUT AROUND 135W WILL
SLOWLY REACH THE COAST LATE THURSDAY AND ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. THE
RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST AND
COAST RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE ARE MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME IN THE 3000 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE ALONG THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND PART OF THE VALLEY AREAS..AND BACK TOWARD
THE NORTH COAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME LOCAL FOG WITH CEILINGS BELOW
500 FEET...AND SOME CIGS AROUND 1200 FT ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND
I5 CORRIDOR AREA. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND FOR A
WHILE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LAST REMAINING SHOWERS SEEM TO BE
MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH THE COOL AIR MASS OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA...TEMPS TODAY WILL LIKELY STAY A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 65
TO 70 RANGE INLAND.

AN UPPER RIDGE HAS ITS AXIS ANCHORED OUT NEAR 135W TODAY. THE MODELS
FORECAST A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PARTLY DUE TO A SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH INTO
MONTANA AND ITS TRAILING HIGHER PRESSURE...AND DUE TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THAT WILL LEAD TO A
COOLER AIR MASS EAST OF THE CASCADES. GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN VERY
LIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...SO WITH SOMEWHAT DAMP GROUND
CONTINUING...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY IN COMBINATION WITH COOL TEMPS. THE MODELS
SHOW MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DOWN THE VALLEY WITH A LIGHT
EAST FLOW IN THE GORGE ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT TURNS MORE EASTERLY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE EAST WIND THROUGH THE GORGE WILL
INCREASE THEN...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH OR SO POSSIBLE AROUND CORBETT.

THE COOL AIR MASS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO COOL
NIGHTTIME TEMPS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE MODELS FORECAST DEWPOINTS
STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S SO THIS MAY LIMIT HOW COOL WE DO GET...BUT
SOME UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY
NIGHT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. FEW CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH...WE
CAN EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
NORTH COAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SEEMS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OR BECOMES FLATTER WE COULD SEE
SOME RAIN PUSH INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT WIDE SPREAD RAIN EVENT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD BRING WITH
IT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. /64 &&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND AREAS ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER THIS
MORNING...IMPACTING KEUG AND KSPB. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THE FOG SHOULD CLEAR FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY AROUND 1630Z
AND NEAR KEUG AROUND 18Z. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT... BUT WILL BE TOO
WEAK TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
NEAR KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT VFR CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT BY 17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADIATION FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT WITH
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 9Z. TJ
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS WILL MAINTAIN N WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN OREGON WATERS...AND NE WINDS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.  THE
WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO
15 KT SOUTH OF NEWPORT. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD
THURSDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OFFSHORE...AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PRESSURE PATTERN FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN CONSTANT
SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTS FLIRTING WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD WILL BE MUCH WEAKER
AS A FRONT DECAYS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD MONDAY TO THE NORTH WITH A THERMAL TROUGH HANGING ON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND SATURDAY THEN BUILD AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET. TJ
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 011616
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
915 AM PDT WED OCT  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS AND MORE SUNSHINE. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OUT AROUND 135W WILL
SLOWLY REACH THE COAST LATE THURSDAY AND ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. THE
RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST AND
COAST RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE ARE MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUDS AROUND THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME IN THE 3000 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE ALONG THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND PART OF THE VALLEY AREAS..AND BACK TOWARD
THE NORTH COAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME LOCAL FOG WITH CEILINGS BELOW
500 FEET...AND SOME CIGS AROUND 1200 FT ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND
I5 CORRIDOR AREA. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND FOR A
WHILE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LAST REMAINING SHOWERS SEEM TO BE
MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH THE COOL AIR MASS OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA...TEMPS TODAY WILL LIKELY STAY A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 65
TO 70 RANGE INLAND.

AN UPPER RIDGE HAS ITS AXIS ANCHORED OUT NEAR 135W TODAY. THE MODELS
FORECAST A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PARTLY DUE TO A SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH INTO
MONTANA AND ITS TRAILING HIGHER PRESSURE...AND DUE TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THAT WILL LEAD TO A
COOLER AIR MASS EAST OF THE CASCADES. GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN VERY
LIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...SO WITH SOMEWHAT DAMP GROUND
CONTINUING...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY IN COMBINATION WITH COOL TEMPS. THE MODELS
SHOW MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DOWN THE VALLEY WITH A LIGHT
EAST FLOW IN THE GORGE ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT TURNS MORE EASTERLY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE EAST WIND THROUGH THE GORGE WILL
INCREASE THEN...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH OR SO POSSIBLE AROUND CORBETT.

THE COOL AIR MASS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO COOL
NIGHTTIME TEMPS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE MODELS FORECAST DEWPOINTS
STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S SO THIS MAY LIMIT HOW COOL WE DO GET...BUT
SOME UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY
NIGHT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. FEW CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH...WE
CAN EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
NORTH COAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SEEMS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OR BECOMES FLATTER WE COULD SEE
SOME RAIN PUSH INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT WIDE SPREAD RAIN EVENT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD BRING WITH
IT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. /64 &&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND AREAS ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER THIS
MORNING...IMPACTING KEUG AND KSPB. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THE FOG SHOULD CLEAR FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY AROUND 1630Z
AND NEAR KEUG AROUND 18Z. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT... BUT WILL BE TOO
WEAK TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
NEAR KONP HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT VFR CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT BY 17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADIATION FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT WITH
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 9Z. TJ
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS WILL MAINTAIN N WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN OREGON WATERS...AND NE WINDS SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.  THE
WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO
15 KT SOUTH OF NEWPORT. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD
THURSDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OFFSHORE...AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PRESSURE PATTERN FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN CONSTANT
SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTS FLIRTING WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS NORTH OF CASCADE HEAD WILL BE MUCH WEAKER
AS A FRONT DECAYS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD MONDAY TO THE NORTH WITH A THERMAL TROUGH HANGING ON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND SATURDAY THEN BUILD AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET. TJ
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 011556
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD ALONG 140W THIS MORNING,
AND WE ARE IN VERY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. WE HAD
VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH LOWER 40S FAIRLY COMMON
ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND A HARD FREEZE THROUGH MUCH OF KLAMATH
COUNTY. THE 01/12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING SHOWED THE SUPER DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBSIDENCE RIDGE ALOFT HAS DESCENDED TO AROUND
10,000 FT THIS MORNING WITH MOIST CONDITIONS BELOW. THIS RESULTED
IN GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ACROSS THE BOARD, SO THE MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL ZONES DIDN`T PRODUCE ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. STRATUS IS ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN AND BANKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN LAKE COUNTY. THIS WILL ALL DISSIPATE TO A CLEAR,
SUNNY SKY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES MOST PLACES.

THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DESCENDS TO AROUND 5,000 FEET TONIGHT,
BUT THE AIR ISN`T QUITE AS DRY AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A
BIT, SO STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, EITHER. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT THAT
AGAIN TODAY. IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT,
BUT CHILLY IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/12Z TAF CYCLE...
AREAS OF IFR  CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COASTS AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO. INLAND CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER IFR/MVFR
CIGS WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING IN
THE UMPQUA BASIN  WITH STRATUS BANKED UP AGAINST THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS IN PORTION OF LAKE COUNTY NORTH OF
LAKEVIEW.ALL CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS WILL CAUSE NORTH
WINDS TO INCREASE TODAY WITH STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS DEVELOPING.
WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER WATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AFFECTING THE WATERS SOUTH OF BANDON. ALSO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS SOUTH OF
GOLD BEACH. THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW STEEP SEAS TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS WITH STEEP TO VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM CAPE
BLANCO SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AREAS OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ALONG WITH
STEEP SEAS FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS. THEN ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS
AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SOME FRIDAY. THEN...SEAS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY DUE TO BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL. GUSTY NORTH WINDS MAY
RETURN TO THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND BECOME FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

RIGHT NOW, A COOL EARLY OCTOBER AIR MASS IS OVER THE AREA AND THIS
HAS LED TEMPERATURES TO FALL DOWN TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING IN
MANY SPOTS EAST OF THE CASCADES. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST
ADVISORIES ARE UP AND THEY APPEAR TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN
AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST DURING THE NIGHT AND THESE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. A
THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA IS BRINGING
LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS WILL BRING
MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER TO THE SOUTH COAST...AND WITH ENOUGH
NORTHEAST WIND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO AT LEAST THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN BROOKINGS. INLAND...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UP
FROM YESTERDAY`S READINGS BY ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES. SO, WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S WHILE EAST SIDE LOCATIONS TOP OUT
IN THE MID 60S.

A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN
THE SURROUNDING HILLS AND RIDGES. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE UNDER FREEZE HEADLINES
THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE DIRECTED WELL TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO ANY STORM SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN FROM ABOUT
WESTERN WASHINGTON NORTHWARD. WE`LL CONTINUE TO WARM UP DOWN HERE
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S WEST OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT WARM, SUNNY
AFTERNOONS WITH CLEAR, COOL NIGHTS. AUTUMN IS A SEASON WHERE WE
CAN SEE SOME VERY LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...IN SOME
CASES 50-60 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE PERIODS SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY AT NIGHT, BUT THEN
WARM UP DRAMATICALLY THE NEXT DAY. MODEL 850 TEMPS REACH ABOUT 20C
WEST OF THE CASCADES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON IN MEDFORD.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE
WILL EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWING A TROUGH TO SWING
THROUGH. MODELS DO VARY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH,
BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS THE PRECEDING AIR
MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME COOLING
THOUGH. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ029>031.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$






000
FXUS66 KMFR 011556
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD ALONG 140W THIS MORNING,
AND WE ARE IN VERY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. WE HAD
VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH LOWER 40S FAIRLY COMMON
ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND A HARD FREEZE THROUGH MUCH OF KLAMATH
COUNTY. THE 01/12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING SHOWED THE SUPER DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBSIDENCE RIDGE ALOFT HAS DESCENDED TO AROUND
10,000 FT THIS MORNING WITH MOIST CONDITIONS BELOW. THIS RESULTED
IN GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ACROSS THE BOARD, SO THE MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL ZONES DIDN`T PRODUCE ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. STRATUS IS ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN AND BANKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN LAKE COUNTY. THIS WILL ALL DISSIPATE TO A CLEAR,
SUNNY SKY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES MOST PLACES.

THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DESCENDS TO AROUND 5,000 FEET TONIGHT,
BUT THE AIR ISN`T QUITE AS DRY AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A
BIT, SO STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, EITHER. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT THAT
AGAIN TODAY. IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT,
BUT CHILLY IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/12Z TAF CYCLE...
AREAS OF IFR  CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COASTS AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO. INLAND CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER IFR/MVFR
CIGS WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING IN
THE UMPQUA BASIN  WITH STRATUS BANKED UP AGAINST THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS IN PORTION OF LAKE COUNTY NORTH OF
LAKEVIEW.ALL CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS WILL CAUSE NORTH
WINDS TO INCREASE TODAY WITH STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS DEVELOPING.
WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER WATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AFFECTING THE WATERS SOUTH OF BANDON. ALSO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS SOUTH OF
GOLD BEACH. THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW STEEP SEAS TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS WITH STEEP TO VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM CAPE
BLANCO SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AREAS OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ALONG WITH
STEEP SEAS FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS. THEN ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS
AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SOME FRIDAY. THEN...SEAS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY DUE TO BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL. GUSTY NORTH WINDS MAY
RETURN TO THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND BECOME FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

RIGHT NOW, A COOL EARLY OCTOBER AIR MASS IS OVER THE AREA AND THIS
HAS LED TEMPERATURES TO FALL DOWN TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING IN
MANY SPOTS EAST OF THE CASCADES. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST
ADVISORIES ARE UP AND THEY APPEAR TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN
AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST DURING THE NIGHT AND THESE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. A
THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA IS BRINGING
LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS WILL BRING
MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER TO THE SOUTH COAST...AND WITH ENOUGH
NORTHEAST WIND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO AT LEAST THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN BROOKINGS. INLAND...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UP
FROM YESTERDAY`S READINGS BY ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES. SO, WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S WHILE EAST SIDE LOCATIONS TOP OUT
IN THE MID 60S.

A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN
THE SURROUNDING HILLS AND RIDGES. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE UNDER FREEZE HEADLINES
THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE DIRECTED WELL TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO ANY STORM SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN FROM ABOUT
WESTERN WASHINGTON NORTHWARD. WE`LL CONTINUE TO WARM UP DOWN HERE
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S WEST OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT WARM, SUNNY
AFTERNOONS WITH CLEAR, COOL NIGHTS. AUTUMN IS A SEASON WHERE WE
CAN SEE SOME VERY LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...IN SOME
CASES 50-60 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE PERIODS SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY AT NIGHT, BUT THEN
WARM UP DRAMATICALLY THE NEXT DAY. MODEL 850 TEMPS REACH ABOUT 20C
WEST OF THE CASCADES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON IN MEDFORD.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE
WILL EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWING A TROUGH TO SWING
THROUGH. MODELS DO VARY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH,
BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS THE PRECEDING AIR
MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME COOLING
THOUGH. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ029>031.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$







000
FXUS66 KPDT 011533
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
833 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY. ONLY CLOUDS THIS MORNING ON
SATELLITE ARE UPSLOPE STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND
IS CAPPED OFF BY WARMING ALOFT. EXPECT SOME MINIMAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S AND WINDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY.  94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 200 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY
AND TOMORROW. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE TWO STATE
AREA THURSDAY AND SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL PERIOD IS IN STORE
UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF RIDGE
WILL GIVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE CASCADES. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH AVERAGES ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR 15-25KT KDLS AFT 18-06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  68  46  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  71  42  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  69  39  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  70  41  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  67  40  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  64  31  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  64  38  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  64  35  70  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  71  45  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 011533
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
833 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY. ONLY CLOUDS THIS MORNING ON
SATELLITE ARE UPSLOPE STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND
IS CAPPED OFF BY WARMING ALOFT. EXPECT SOME MINIMAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S AND WINDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY.  94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 200 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY
AND TOMORROW. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE TWO STATE
AREA THURSDAY AND SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL PERIOD IS IN STORE
UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF RIDGE
WILL GIVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE CASCADES. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH AVERAGES ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR 15-25KT KDLS AFT 18-06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  68  46  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  71  42  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  69  39  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  70  41  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  67  40  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  64  31  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  64  38  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  64  35  70  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  71  45  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 011533
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
833 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY. ONLY CLOUDS THIS MORNING ON
SATELLITE ARE UPSLOPE STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND
IS CAPPED OFF BY WARMING ALOFT. EXPECT SOME MINIMAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S AND WINDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY.  94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 200 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY
AND TOMORROW. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE TWO STATE
AREA THURSDAY AND SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL PERIOD IS IN STORE
UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF RIDGE
WILL GIVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE CASCADES. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH AVERAGES ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR 15-25KT KDLS AFT 18-06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  68  46  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  71  42  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  69  39  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  70  41  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  67  40  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  64  31  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  64  38  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  64  35  70  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  71  45  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 011533
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
833 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY. ONLY CLOUDS THIS MORNING ON
SATELLITE ARE UPSLOPE STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND
IS CAPPED OFF BY WARMING ALOFT. EXPECT SOME MINIMAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S AND WINDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY.  94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 200 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY
AND TOMORROW. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE TWO STATE
AREA THURSDAY AND SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL PERIOD IS IN STORE
UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF RIDGE
WILL GIVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE CASCADES. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH AVERAGES ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR 15-25KT KDLS AFT 18-06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  67  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  68  46  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  71  42  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  69  39  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  70  41  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  67  40  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  64  31  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  64  38  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  64  35  70  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  71  45  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 011527
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
927 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...BIG CHANGE FROM YDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH SUNNY SKIES
NOW COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE ARE STILL A FEW CLOUDS
LEFT IN THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS AND IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. THESE
WILL BE MOVING OUT LATER TODAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...BUT NO SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE COOL. THIS IS
ALL HANDLED WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR. FEW-TO-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON - CLOUD BASES AROUND 9K FT MSL. W-NW SURFACE
WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS THROUGH 03Z. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
WILL AVERAGE 15 KTS AT 10K FT MSL THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
UNDERWAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER IDAHO AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IS ON ITS WAY EAST...LEAVING DRY SUBSIDING AIR IN ITS WAKE.
OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT WE CAN EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE COAST
AND EDGES INLAND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TODAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED
IN THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN U.S. /INCLUDING SE OREGON
AND SW IDAHO/ THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...JT
PREV LONG TERM....BW



000
FXUS65 KBOI 011527
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
927 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...BIG CHANGE FROM YDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH SUNNY SKIES
NOW COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE ARE STILL A FEW CLOUDS
LEFT IN THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS AND IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. THESE
WILL BE MOVING OUT LATER TODAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...BUT NO SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE COOL. THIS IS
ALL HANDLED WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR. FEW-TO-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON - CLOUD BASES AROUND 9K FT MSL. W-NW SURFACE
WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS THROUGH 03Z. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
WILL AVERAGE 15 KTS AT 10K FT MSL THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
UNDERWAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER IDAHO AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IS ON ITS WAY EAST...LEAVING DRY SUBSIDING AIR IN ITS WAKE.
OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT WE CAN EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE COAST
AND EDGES INLAND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TODAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED
IN THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN U.S. /INCLUDING SE OREGON
AND SW IDAHO/ THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...JT
PREV LONG TERM....BW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 011027
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
327 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND BECOME FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

RIGHT NOW, A COOL EARLY OCTOBER AIR MASS IS OVER THE AREA AND THIS
HAS LED TEMPERATURES TO FALL DOWN TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING IN
MANY SPOTS EAST OF THE CASCADES. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST
ADVISORIES ARE UP AND THEY APPEAR TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN
AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST DURING THE NIGHT AND THESE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. A
THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA IS BRINGING
LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS WILL BRING
MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER TO THE SOUTH COAST...AND WITH ENOUGH
NORTHEAST WIND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO AT LEAST THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN BROOKINGS. INLAND...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UP
FROM YESTERDAY`S READINGS BY ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES. SO, WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S WHILE EAST SIDE LOCATIONS TOP OUT
IN THE MID 60S.

A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN
THE SURROUNDING HILLS AND RIDGES. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE UNDER FREEZE HEADLINES
THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE DIRECTED WELL TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO ANY STORM SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN FROM ABOUT
WESTERN WASHINGTON NORTHWARD. WE`LL CONTINUE TO WARM UP DOWN HERE
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S WEST OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT WARM, SUNNY
AFTERNOONS WITH CLEAR, COOL NIGHTS. AUTUMN IS A SEASON WHERE WE
CAN SEE SOME VERY LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...IN SOME
CASES 50-60 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE PERIODS SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY AT NIGHT, BUT THEN
WARM UP DRAMATICALLY THE NEXT DAY. MODEL 850 TEMPS REACH ABOUT 20C
WEST OF THE CASCADES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON IN MEDFORD.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE
WILL EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWING A TROUGH TO SWING
THROUGH. MODELS DO VARY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH,
BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS THE PRECEDING AIR
MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME COOLING
THOUGH. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VIS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND THE COASTAL VALLEYS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO
THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG. MVFR CIGS WITH PARTIAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATION INLAND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS MORNING WITH
STRATUS BANKED UP AGAINST THE DIVIDE. THERE ARE ALSO SOME MVFR
CIGS IN PORTION OF LAKE COUNTY NORTH OF LAKEVIEW. ALL CIG/VIS
REDUCTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-LATE MORNING. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PDT TUE 30 SEP 2014...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE
NORTH WINDS AND WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS TO INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AS
WELL. GUSTY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MOST PLACES THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PUSH ABOUT 10NM OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND LOWER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE
NORTH. SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DUE TO A BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL
FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE WEEKEND, STEEP SEAS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ONCE MORE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. /SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ082-084-085.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/CC/SBN/SK







000
FXUS66 KMFR 011027
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
327 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND BECOME FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

RIGHT NOW, A COOL EARLY OCTOBER AIR MASS IS OVER THE AREA AND THIS
HAS LED TEMPERATURES TO FALL DOWN TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING IN
MANY SPOTS EAST OF THE CASCADES. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST
ADVISORIES ARE UP AND THEY APPEAR TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN
AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST DURING THE NIGHT AND THESE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. A
THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA IS BRINGING
LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS WILL BRING
MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER TO THE SOUTH COAST...AND WITH ENOUGH
NORTHEAST WIND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO AT LEAST THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN BROOKINGS. INLAND...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UP
FROM YESTERDAY`S READINGS BY ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES. SO, WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S WHILE EAST SIDE LOCATIONS TOP OUT
IN THE MID 60S.

A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN
THE SURROUNDING HILLS AND RIDGES. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE UNDER FREEZE HEADLINES
THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE DIRECTED WELL TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO ANY STORM SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN FROM ABOUT
WESTERN WASHINGTON NORTHWARD. WE`LL CONTINUE TO WARM UP DOWN HERE
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S WEST OF THE CASCADES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT WARM, SUNNY
AFTERNOONS WITH CLEAR, COOL NIGHTS. AUTUMN IS A SEASON WHERE WE
CAN SEE SOME VERY LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...IN SOME
CASES 50-60 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE PERIODS SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY AT NIGHT, BUT THEN
WARM UP DRAMATICALLY THE NEXT DAY. MODEL 850 TEMPS REACH ABOUT 20C
WEST OF THE CASCADES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON IN MEDFORD.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE
WILL EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWING A TROUGH TO SWING
THROUGH. MODELS DO VARY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH,
BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS THE PRECEDING AIR
MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME COOLING
THOUGH. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VIS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND THE COASTAL VALLEYS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO
THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG. MVFR CIGS WITH PARTIAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATION INLAND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS MORNING WITH
STRATUS BANKED UP AGAINST THE DIVIDE. THERE ARE ALSO SOME MVFR
CIGS IN PORTION OF LAKE COUNTY NORTH OF LAKEVIEW. ALL CIG/VIS
REDUCTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-LATE MORNING. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PDT TUE 30 SEP 2014...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE
NORTH WINDS AND WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS TO INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AS
WELL. GUSTY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MOST PLACES THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PUSH ABOUT 10NM OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND LOWER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE
NORTH. SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DUE TO A BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL
FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE WEEKEND, STEEP SEAS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ONCE MORE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. /SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ082-084-085.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/CC/SBN/SK






000
FXUS66 KPQR 010925
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
AND NORTH OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A NW
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE SHIFTING
E ACROSS 140W. RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SHOWERS
PRETTY MUCH HAVE NEDED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO
INDICATED SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAD JUST BEGIN TO FORM AT LOW
ELEVATIONS. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY SMALL ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION AND WINDS NEAR CALM...CONDITIONS FAVOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
FILLING IN MUCH OF THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING. WITH A STRONG RIDGE
MOVING IN ALOFT...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL SLOW THE MIXING OUT OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. THIS MAY MAKE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS A BIT
MORE RELUCTANT TO BREAK OUT...WHILE ALSO LIMITING HIGH TEMPS TO
LOWER THAN WHAT THE H8 TEMPS MIGHT OTHERWISE SUGGEST. MODEL
SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SEEM INTENT IN BREAKING UP THE LOW CLOUDS BY
MIDDAY...AND WITHOUT A RECENT TRACK RECORD INDICATING OTHERWISE WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME SUN FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK SIMILAR WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT...EXCEPT A THERMAL INDUCED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD UP THE
COAST TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE DEFINITIVELY OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL TEND TO DRY THE AIR A BIT MORE MAKING CONDITIONS FOR MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG LESS PROGRESSIVELY LESS FAVORABLE...ESP DOWNWIND OF
THE GORGE AND ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BY FRI MORNING. WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN...WIND PROTECTED VALLEYS MAY SEE TEMPS DIP AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 30S BY THU MORNING BEFORE FOG DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS MIXING OUT MORE EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. FEW CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH...WE
CAN EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
NORTH COAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SEEMS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OR BECOMES FLATTER WE COULD SEE
SOME RAIN PUSH INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT WIDE SPREAD RAIN EVENT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD BRING WITH
IT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. /64 &&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE
COAST. GIVEN CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...STILL ANTICIPATE
LOW MVFR TO IFR FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
WHILE SOME INDICATION THAT THIS HAS BEGUN TO FORM NEAR KTTD...KUAO
AND KMMV...EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT AFT
12Z. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT WED MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANCES FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN AFT 06Z THU.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z AS FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS. THEN...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AFT 18Z
WED THROUGH 09Z THU.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS...AND SEAS REMAIN IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE. LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD N UP
THE OREGON COAST ON THU...TURNING WINDS NE...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS ESPECIALLY S OF CASCADE HEAD. WEAKER WINDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW.AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE
FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 010925
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
AND NORTH OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A NW
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE SHIFTING
E ACROSS 140W. RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SHOWERS
PRETTY MUCH HAVE NEDED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO
INDICATED SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAD JUST BEGIN TO FORM AT LOW
ELEVATIONS. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY SMALL ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION AND WINDS NEAR CALM...CONDITIONS FAVOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
FILLING IN MUCH OF THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING. WITH A STRONG RIDGE
MOVING IN ALOFT...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL SLOW THE MIXING OUT OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. THIS MAY MAKE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS A BIT
MORE RELUCTANT TO BREAK OUT...WHILE ALSO LIMITING HIGH TEMPS TO
LOWER THAN WHAT THE H8 TEMPS MIGHT OTHERWISE SUGGEST. MODEL
SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SEEM INTENT IN BREAKING UP THE LOW CLOUDS BY
MIDDAY...AND WITHOUT A RECENT TRACK RECORD INDICATING OTHERWISE WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME SUN FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK SIMILAR WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT...EXCEPT A THERMAL INDUCED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD UP THE
COAST TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE DEFINITIVELY OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL TEND TO DRY THE AIR A BIT MORE MAKING CONDITIONS FOR MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG LESS PROGRESSIVELY LESS FAVORABLE...ESP DOWNWIND OF
THE GORGE AND ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BY FRI MORNING. WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN...WIND PROTECTED VALLEYS MAY SEE TEMPS DIP AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 30S BY THU MORNING BEFORE FOG DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS MIXING OUT MORE EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. FEW CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH...WE
CAN EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
NORTH COAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SEEMS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OR BECOMES FLATTER WE COULD SEE
SOME RAIN PUSH INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT WIDE SPREAD RAIN EVENT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD BRING WITH
IT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. /64 &&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE
COAST. GIVEN CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...STILL ANTICIPATE
LOW MVFR TO IFR FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
WHILE SOME INDICATION THAT THIS HAS BEGUN TO FORM NEAR KTTD...KUAO
AND KMMV...EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT AFT
12Z. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT WED MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANCES FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN AFT 06Z THU.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z AS FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS. THEN...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AFT 18Z
WED THROUGH 09Z THU.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS...AND SEAS REMAIN IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE. LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD N UP
THE OREGON COAST ON THU...TURNING WINDS NE...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS ESPECIALLY S OF CASCADE HEAD. WEAKER WINDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW.AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE
FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 010925
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
AND NORTH OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A NW
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE SHIFTING
E ACROSS 140W. RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SHOWERS
PRETTY MUCH HAVE NEDED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO
INDICATED SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAD JUST BEGIN TO FORM AT LOW
ELEVATIONS. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY SMALL ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION AND WINDS NEAR CALM...CONDITIONS FAVOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
FILLING IN MUCH OF THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING. WITH A STRONG RIDGE
MOVING IN ALOFT...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL SLOW THE MIXING OUT OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. THIS MAY MAKE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS A BIT
MORE RELUCTANT TO BREAK OUT...WHILE ALSO LIMITING HIGH TEMPS TO
LOWER THAN WHAT THE H8 TEMPS MIGHT OTHERWISE SUGGEST. MODEL
SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SEEM INTENT IN BREAKING UP THE LOW CLOUDS BY
MIDDAY...AND WITHOUT A RECENT TRACK RECORD INDICATING OTHERWISE WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME SUN FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK SIMILAR WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT...EXCEPT A THERMAL INDUCED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD UP THE
COAST TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE DEFINITIVELY OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL TEND TO DRY THE AIR A BIT MORE MAKING CONDITIONS FOR MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG LESS PROGRESSIVELY LESS FAVORABLE...ESP DOWNWIND OF
THE GORGE AND ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BY FRI MORNING. WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN...WIND PROTECTED VALLEYS MAY SEE TEMPS DIP AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 30S BY THU MORNING BEFORE FOG DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS MIXING OUT MORE EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. FEW CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH...WE
CAN EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
NORTH COAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SEEMS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OR BECOMES FLATTER WE COULD SEE
SOME RAIN PUSH INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT WIDE SPREAD RAIN EVENT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD BRING WITH
IT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. /64 &&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE
COAST. GIVEN CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...STILL ANTICIPATE
LOW MVFR TO IFR FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
WHILE SOME INDICATION THAT THIS HAS BEGUN TO FORM NEAR KTTD...KUAO
AND KMMV...EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT AFT
12Z. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT WED MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANCES FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN AFT 06Z THU.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z AS FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS. THEN...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AFT 18Z
WED THROUGH 09Z THU.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS...AND SEAS REMAIN IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE. LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD N UP
THE OREGON COAST ON THU...TURNING WINDS NE...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS ESPECIALLY S OF CASCADE HEAD. WEAKER WINDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW.AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE
FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 010925
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
AND NORTH OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A NW
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OFFSHORE SHIFTING
E ACROSS 140W. RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SHOWERS
PRETTY MUCH HAVE NEDED OVER THE REGION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO
INDICATED SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAD JUST BEGIN TO FORM AT LOW
ELEVATIONS. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY SMALL ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION AND WINDS NEAR CALM...CONDITIONS FAVOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
FILLING IN MUCH OF THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING. WITH A STRONG RIDGE
MOVING IN ALOFT...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL SLOW THE MIXING OUT OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. THIS MAY MAKE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS A BIT
MORE RELUCTANT TO BREAK OUT...WHILE ALSO LIMITING HIGH TEMPS TO
LOWER THAN WHAT THE H8 TEMPS MIGHT OTHERWISE SUGGEST. MODEL
SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SEEM INTENT IN BREAKING UP THE LOW CLOUDS BY
MIDDAY...AND WITHOUT A RECENT TRACK RECORD INDICATING OTHERWISE WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME SUN FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK SIMILAR WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT...EXCEPT A THERMAL INDUCED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD UP THE
COAST TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE DEFINITIVELY OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL TEND TO DRY THE AIR A BIT MORE MAKING CONDITIONS FOR MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG LESS PROGRESSIVELY LESS FAVORABLE...ESP DOWNWIND OF
THE GORGE AND ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BY FRI MORNING. WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN...WIND PROTECTED VALLEYS MAY SEE TEMPS DIP AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 30S BY THU MORNING BEFORE FOG DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS MIXING OUT MORE EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. FEW CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH...WE
CAN EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
NORTH COAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SEEMS
LIKELY AT THIS POINT. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OR BECOMES FLATTER WE COULD SEE
SOME RAIN PUSH INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT WIDE SPREAD RAIN EVENT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD BRING WITH
IT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. /64 &&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH JUST A FEW STRAY SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE
COAST. GIVEN CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...STILL ANTICIPATE
LOW MVFR TO IFR FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
WHILE SOME INDICATION THAT THIS HAS BEGUN TO FORM NEAR KTTD...KUAO
AND KMMV...EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT AFT
12Z. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT WED MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE CHANCES FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN AFT 06Z THU.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z AS FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS. THEN...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AFT 18Z
WED THROUGH 09Z THU.  CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS...AND SEAS REMAIN IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE. LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 5 FT TONIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD N UP
THE OREGON COAST ON THU...TURNING WINDS NE...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS ESPECIALLY S OF CASCADE HEAD. WEAKER WINDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW.AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE
FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&



000
FXUS66 KPDT 010916 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
200 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY
AND TOMORROW. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE TWO STATE
AREA THURSDAY AND SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL PERIOD IS IN STORE
UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF RIDGE
WILL GIVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE CASCADES. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH AVERAGES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR 15-25KT KDLS AFT 18-06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  66  45  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  70  38  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  70  37  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  68  39  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  67  41  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  64  30  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  65  36  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  63  33  70  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  70  44  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/79/79









000
FXUS66 KPDT 010916 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
200 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY
AND TOMORROW. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE TWO STATE
AREA THURSDAY AND SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL PERIOD IS IN STORE
UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF RIDGE
WILL GIVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE CASCADES. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH AVERAGES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR 15-25KT KDLS AFT 18-06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  66  45  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  70  38  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  70  37  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  68  39  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  67  41  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  64  30  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  65  36  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  63  33  70  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  70  44  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/79/79









000
FXUS66 KPDT 010916 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
200 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY
AND TOMORROW. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE TWO STATE
AREA THURSDAY AND SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL PERIOD IS IN STORE
UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF RIDGE
WILL GIVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE CASCADES. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH AVERAGES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR 15-25KT KDLS AFT 18-06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  66  45  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  70  38  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  70  37  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  68  39  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  67  41  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  64  30  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  65  36  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  63  33  70  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  70  44  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/79/79









000
FXUS66 KPDT 010916 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
200 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY
AND TOMORROW. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE TWO STATE
AREA THURSDAY AND SPREAD SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL PERIOD IS IN STORE
UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF RIDGE
WILL GIVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE CASCADES. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH AVERAGES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR 15-25KT KDLS AFT 18-06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  66  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  66  45  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  70  38  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  70  37  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  68  39  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  67  41  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  64  30  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  65  36  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  63  33  70  35 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  70  44  71  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/79/79









000
FXUS65 KBOI 010900
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
300 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
UNDERWAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER IDAHO AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IS ON ITS WAY EAST...LEAVING DRY SUBSIDING AIR IN ITS WAKE.
OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT WE CAN EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE COAST
AND EDGES INLAND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED
IN THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN U.S. /INCLUDING SE OREGON
AND SW IDAHO/ THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT MID CLOUDS TODAY. LOCALLY BKN LOW VFR
CLOUDS IN THE IDAHO WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS UNTIL 18Z. ISOLATED MVFR
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS UNTIL 18Z. SURFACE WINDS...
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS FROM KMUO TO KTWF/KJER. WINDS ALOFT...NORTH 10-20 KNOTS
UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM AND AVIATION....BW




000
FXUS66 KPDT 010537 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1037 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH`S AXIS WILL BE OUT
OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND ARE MOVING THROUGH UNION AND
WALLOWA COUNTIES. ALSO UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUES WILL KEEP DEEPER
CLOUDS WITH STRAY SHOWERS GOING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CENTRAL OREGON HAS CREATED MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND HAVE UPDATED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING TO REFLECT
THIS TREND. STILL EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN CENTRAL OREGON, THUS WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE
WARNING. OVERALL FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK, AND OTHER THAN THE
MENTIONED CLOUD COVER CHANGES, UPDATES INCLUDED SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
LOW TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY AND WARM OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASED
MOISTURE/SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CIGS BETWEEN 4500 AND 9000 FT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AT KRDM, KBDN AND KALW DUE TO UPSLOPE AFFECTS. BRIEF
CIGS IN THIS RANGE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KPDT, BUT WILL INDICATE SCT
CLOUDS FOR NOW. CLR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KDLS, KYKM
AND KPSC. WILL SEE FEW-SCT CIRRUS MOVE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS AT KYKM AND KPDT WILL DECREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL RUN BETWEEN 6 AND 15 KTS, WITH
STRONGEST WINDS AT KDLS. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  43  67  39  69 /  20   0   0   0
ALW  46  67  43  70 /  20   0   0   0
PSC  41  70  36  71 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  38  68  38  68 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  40  69  37  72 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  42  65  40  67 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  29  64  28  71 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  38  63  34  67 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  34  64  31  71 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  46  69  42  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/77/90







000
FXUS66 KPDT 010537 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1037 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH`S AXIS WILL BE OUT
OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND ARE MOVING THROUGH UNION AND
WALLOWA COUNTIES. ALSO UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUES WILL KEEP DEEPER
CLOUDS WITH STRAY SHOWERS GOING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CENTRAL OREGON HAS CREATED MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND HAVE UPDATED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING TO REFLECT
THIS TREND. STILL EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN CENTRAL OREGON, THUS WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE
WARNING. OVERALL FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK, AND OTHER THAN THE
MENTIONED CLOUD COVER CHANGES, UPDATES INCLUDED SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
LOW TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY AND WARM OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASED
MOISTURE/SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CIGS BETWEEN 4500 AND 9000 FT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AT KRDM, KBDN AND KALW DUE TO UPSLOPE AFFECTS. BRIEF
CIGS IN THIS RANGE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KPDT, BUT WILL INDICATE SCT
CLOUDS FOR NOW. CLR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KDLS, KYKM
AND KPSC. WILL SEE FEW-SCT CIRRUS MOVE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS AT KYKM AND KPDT WILL DECREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL RUN BETWEEN 6 AND 15 KTS, WITH
STRONGEST WINDS AT KDLS. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  43  67  39  69 /  20   0   0   0
ALW  46  67  43  70 /  20   0   0   0
PSC  41  70  36  71 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  38  68  38  68 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  40  69  37  72 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  42  65  40  67 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  29  64  28  71 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  38  63  34  67 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  34  64  31  71 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  46  69  42  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/77/90








000
FXUS66 KMFR 010457 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
955 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION....NOT MUCH TO ADD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT CROSS-OVER METHOD INDICATED THAT THERE SHOULD
NOT BE FOG AT THE AIRPORT. HOWEVER, WITH THE WATER TEMPS SLOWER TO
COOL HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE ROGUE VALLEY FOR THE MORNING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
CLOUD COVER IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXIST FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS, LONGER NIGHTS AND
LOWER DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY
QUICK AFTER DARK AND IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH
AND NORTHWEST LAKE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S. THUS THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PICTURE FOR
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MIGRATING EAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARNING UP EACH DAY AND WERE LIKELY TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 IN PARTS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT`S STILL GOING TO BE COLD AT
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND MODELS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY END UP
HIGHER, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE THEM DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH, LAKE AND JUST EAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA.

AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID
SLOPES AND RIDGES. MEANWHILE AN INVERSION IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN. VERY LOCALIZED COASTAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
INLAND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY TONIGHT AND
LINGERING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE...A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED AT NORTH BEND AND IN ROSEBURG. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT
ROSEBURG WILL BECOME IFR TONIGHT...AND NOT AS CONFIDENT WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT NORTH BEND. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR
OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PDT TUE 30 SEP 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE NORTH WINDS
AND WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS TO INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
GUSTY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PUSH ABOUT 10NM
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND LOWER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT PASSES TO
THE NORTH. SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DUE TO A BUILDING WESTERLY
SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE WEEKEND, STEEP SEAS AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE MORE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM
WEDNESDAY
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT
THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$











000
FXUS66 KMFR 010457 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
955 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION....NOT MUCH TO ADD TONIGHT. WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT CROSS-OVER METHOD INDICATED THAT THERE SHOULD
NOT BE FOG AT THE AIRPORT. HOWEVER, WITH THE WATER TEMPS SLOWER TO
COOL HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE ROGUE VALLEY FOR THE MORNING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
CLOUD COVER IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXIST FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS, LONGER NIGHTS AND
LOWER DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY
QUICK AFTER DARK AND IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH
AND NORTHWEST LAKE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S. THUS THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PICTURE FOR
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MIGRATING EAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARNING UP EACH DAY AND WERE LIKELY TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 IN PARTS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT`S STILL GOING TO BE COLD AT
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND MODELS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY END UP
HIGHER, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE THEM DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH, LAKE AND JUST EAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA.

AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID
SLOPES AND RIDGES. MEANWHILE AN INVERSION IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN. VERY LOCALIZED COASTAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
INLAND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY TONIGHT AND
LINGERING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE...A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED AT NORTH BEND AND IN ROSEBURG. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT
ROSEBURG WILL BECOME IFR TONIGHT...AND NOT AS CONFIDENT WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT NORTH BEND. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR
OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PDT TUE 30 SEP 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE NORTH WINDS
AND WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS TO INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
GUSTY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PUSH ABOUT 10NM
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND LOWER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT PASSES TO
THE NORTH. SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DUE TO A BUILDING WESTERLY
SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE WEEKEND, STEEP SEAS AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE MORE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM
WEDNESDAY
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT
THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$










000
FXUS66 KPDT 010415
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
915 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH`S AXIS WILL BE OUT
OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND ARE MOVING THROUGH UNION AND
WALLOWA COUNTIES. ALSO UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUES WILL KEEP DEEPER
CLOUDS WITH STRAY SHOWERS GOING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CENTRAL OREGON HAS CREATED MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND HAVE UPDATED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING TO REFLECT
THIS TREND. STILL EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN CENTRAL OREGON, THUS WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE
WARNING. OVERALL FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK, AND OTHER THAN THE
MENTIONED CLOUD COVER CHANGES, UPDATES INCLUDED SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
LOW TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY AND WARM OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASED
MOISTURE/SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY THROUGH 03Z AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH THE GUSTY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT 06Z AT KPDT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD
AFFECT KPDT...KPSC AND KALW THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AT ALL TAF
SITES...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  43  67  39  69 /  20   0   0   0
ALW  46  67  43  70 /  20   0   0   0
PSC  41  70  36  71 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  38  68  38  68 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  40  69  37  72 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  42  65  40  67 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  29  64  28  71 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  38  63  34  67 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  34  64  31  71 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  46  69  42  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/77/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 010415
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
915 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH`S AXIS WILL BE OUT
OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND ARE MOVING THROUGH UNION AND
WALLOWA COUNTIES. ALSO UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUES WILL KEEP DEEPER
CLOUDS WITH STRAY SHOWERS GOING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CENTRAL OREGON HAS CREATED MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND HAVE UPDATED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING TO REFLECT
THIS TREND. STILL EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN CENTRAL OREGON, THUS WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE
WARNING. OVERALL FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK, AND OTHER THAN THE
MENTIONED CLOUD COVER CHANGES, UPDATES INCLUDED SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
LOW TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY AND WARM OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASED
MOISTURE/SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY THROUGH 03Z AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH THE GUSTY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT 06Z AT KPDT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD
AFFECT KPDT...KPSC AND KALW THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AT ALL TAF
SITES...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  43  67  39  69 /  20   0   0   0
ALW  46  67  43  70 /  20   0   0   0
PSC  41  70  36  71 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  38  68  38  68 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  40  69  37  72 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  42  65  40  67 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  29  64  28  71 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  38  63  34  67 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  34  64  31  71 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  46  69  42  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/77/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 010415
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
915 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH`S AXIS WILL BE OUT
OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND ARE MOVING THROUGH UNION AND
WALLOWA COUNTIES. ALSO UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUES WILL KEEP DEEPER
CLOUDS WITH STRAY SHOWERS GOING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CENTRAL OREGON HAS CREATED MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND HAVE UPDATED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING TO REFLECT
THIS TREND. STILL EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN CENTRAL OREGON, THUS WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE
WARNING. OVERALL FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK, AND OTHER THAN THE
MENTIONED CLOUD COVER CHANGES, UPDATES INCLUDED SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
LOW TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY AND WARM OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASED
MOISTURE/SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY THROUGH 03Z AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH THE GUSTY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT 06Z AT KPDT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD
AFFECT KPDT...KPSC AND KALW THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AT ALL TAF
SITES...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  43  67  39  69 /  20   0   0   0
ALW  46  67  43  70 /  20   0   0   0
PSC  41  70  36  71 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  38  68  38  68 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  40  69  37  72 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  42  65  40  67 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  29  64  28  71 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  38  63  34  67 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  34  64  31  71 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  46  69  42  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/77/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 010415
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
915 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH`S AXIS WILL BE OUT
OF OUR AREA WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND ARE MOVING THROUGH UNION AND
WALLOWA COUNTIES. ALSO UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUES WILL KEEP DEEPER
CLOUDS WITH STRAY SHOWERS GOING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CENTRAL OREGON HAS CREATED MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND HAVE UPDATED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING TO REFLECT
THIS TREND. STILL EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN CENTRAL OREGON, THUS WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE
WARNING. OVERALL FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK, AND OTHER THAN THE
MENTIONED CLOUD COVER CHANGES, UPDATES INCLUDED SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
LOW TEMPS AND WIND SPEEDS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY AND WARM OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASED
MOISTURE/SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY THROUGH 03Z AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH THE GUSTY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT 06Z AT KPDT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD
AFFECT KPDT...KPSC AND KALW THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AT ALL TAF
SITES...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  43  67  39  69 /  20   0   0   0
ALW  46  67  43  70 /  20   0   0   0
PSC  41  70  36  71 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  38  68  38  68 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  40  69  37  72 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  42  65  40  67 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  29  64  28  71 /  10   0   0   0
LGD  38  63  34  67 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  34  64  31  71 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  46  69  42  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY ORZ511.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/77/90








000
FXUS66 KPQR 010352
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
845 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL TAPER
OFF TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.
THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
AND NORTH OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SW
WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WERE FEW AND SPACED IN NEARLY
PARALLEL LINES STRETCHING FROM THE NW TO SE. THE SHOWERS DECREASED
AFTER SUNSET AND IS ALL BUT GONE. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS SEEN ON
RADAR OVER THE COAST AND CASCADES.

SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR IN THE VALLEY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
PACNW INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD ALSO BRING QUITE A BIT OF
CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH DECOUPLING WINDS
OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COAST AND LOW LYING VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER WEATHER TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP A BIT...LEADING TO
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER...EVEN BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS COVER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR FOR MOST. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW OUTLYING
VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY SEE TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S BY EARLY THU
MORNING. AGAIN...EXPECT PLENTY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE COAST AND
LOW LYING VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST ON THU.
THIS IS MODELED TO CREATE A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE S OREGON COAST...BRINGING A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW TO MUCH OF SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON ON THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
PLEASANT SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE RIDGE IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER FRI...BRINGING ANOTHER MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS RUNNING A GOOD 5 TO
10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. PYLE

.LONG TERM...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
TODAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STILL KEEPING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTH COAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN OR BECOMES FLATTER WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT WIDE SPREAD RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD BRING WITH IT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS ARE DWINDLING THIS EVENING...AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THERE IS STILL BRIEF MVFR CIGS ONCE IN A
WHILE...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. WITH CALMING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR STRATUS AND
VIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIFR CIGS AND/OR
VIS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT KSLE AND KEUG AFTER 12Z. CLEARING
AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LOW MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z WITH...CLEARING AROUND 18Z WED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TJ

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
SEAS ARE BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FEET THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANGE WED AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD...AND SEAS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS UP
TO AROUND TILLAMOOK OREGON ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NE WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS..NEAR NEWPORT
AND FURTHER SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&



000
FXUS65 KBOI 010230
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
830 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM
SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON RESULTING IN DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS ENDING OVERNIGHT. 00Z NAM BRINGS SOME LOW
T/TD SPREAD AND MODELED CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS SO WILL WATCH FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS THERE. WINDS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRY IT OUT ENOUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY
UP ABOVE 5-10KTS EXCEPT BRIEFLY BAKER VALLEY AND CENTRAL IDAHO
WHERE PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES
NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS AND BAKER COUNTY BKN
CLOUDS BASES 12-15K FT MSL WITH LOCAL MTNS OBSCURED IN SHOWERS
UNTIL 09Z. ELSEWHERE SCT CLOUDS. THROUGHOUT...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WEDNESDAY EVENING. EARLY WEDNESDAY...LOCAL FOG 10-13Z
KMYL/KBKE. SURFACE WINDS NW 5-15KTS DECREASING TO LIGHT 10KTS OR
LESS THIS EVENING EXCEPT KTWF/KJER 10-20KTS WED AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT DECREASING FROM 25KTS TO 15KTS WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AND A LITTLE
COOLER AIR. PRECIP IS ONLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THEN FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE MTNS TOMORROW
MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS LATE WED
THROUGH THU AND BEYOND. WITH LOWERED HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED NW FLOW
ALOFT...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY
FOG IS FORECAST FOR TOMORROW MORNING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
LOW-LYING SPOTS SEEING THAT WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BE NOTICEABLY
LIGHTER TOMORROW AND THU. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST THU...BUT AT THIS TIME IS FORECAST TO BE JUST A
LITTLE TOO FAR AWAY TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN
WEST COAST. EVEN WITH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE HOW WARM OR COOL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 010230
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
830 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM
SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON RESULTING IN DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS ENDING OVERNIGHT. 00Z NAM BRINGS SOME LOW
T/TD SPREAD AND MODELED CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS SO WILL WATCH FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS THERE. WINDS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRY IT OUT ENOUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY
UP ABOVE 5-10KTS EXCEPT BRIEFLY BAKER VALLEY AND CENTRAL IDAHO
WHERE PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES
NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS AND BAKER COUNTY BKN
CLOUDS BASES 12-15K FT MSL WITH LOCAL MTNS OBSCURED IN SHOWERS
UNTIL 09Z. ELSEWHERE SCT CLOUDS. THROUGHOUT...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WEDNESDAY EVENING. EARLY WEDNESDAY...LOCAL FOG 10-13Z
KMYL/KBKE. SURFACE WINDS NW 5-15KTS DECREASING TO LIGHT 10KTS OR
LESS THIS EVENING EXCEPT KTWF/KJER 10-20KTS WED AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT DECREASING FROM 25KTS TO 15KTS WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AND A LITTLE
COOLER AIR. PRECIP IS ONLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THEN FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE MTNS TOMORROW
MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS LATE WED
THROUGH THU AND BEYOND. WITH LOWERED HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED NW FLOW
ALOFT...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY
FOG IS FORECAST FOR TOMORROW MORNING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
LOW-LYING SPOTS SEEING THAT WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BE NOTICEABLY
LIGHTER TOMORROW AND THU. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST THU...BUT AT THIS TIME IS FORECAST TO BE JUST A
LITTLE TOO FAR AWAY TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN
WEST COAST. EVEN WITH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE HOW WARM OR COOL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS66 KMFR 010037 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
534 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXIST FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO
FORM IN THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EAST
OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS, LONGER NIGHTS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICK AFTER DARK AND
IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME OF
THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHWEST LAKE
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
THUS THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PICTURE FOR
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MIGRATING EAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARNING UP EACH DAY AND WERE LIKELY TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 IN PARTS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT`S STILL GOING TO BE COLD AT
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND MODELS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY END UP
HIGHER, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE THEM DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH, LAKE AND JUST EAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA.

AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID
SLOPES AND RIDGES. MEANWHILE AN INVERSION IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN. VERY LOCALIZED COASTAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
INLAND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY TONIGHT AND
LINGERING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE...A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED AT NORTH BEND AND IN ROSEBURG. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT
ROSEBURG WILL BECOME IFR TONIGHT...AND NOT AS CONFIDENT WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT NORTH BEND. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR
OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PDT TUE 30 SEP 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE NORTH WINDS
AND WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS TO INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GUSTY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PUSH ABOUT 10NM
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND LOWER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT PASSES TO
THE NORTH. SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DUE TO A BUILDING WESTERLY
SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE WEEKEND, STEEP SEAS AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE MORE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 010037 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
534 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXIST FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO
FORM IN THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EAST
OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS, LONGER NIGHTS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICK AFTER DARK AND
IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME OF
THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHWEST LAKE
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
THUS THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PICTURE FOR
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MIGRATING EAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARNING UP EACH DAY AND WERE LIKELY TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 IN PARTS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT`S STILL GOING TO BE COLD AT
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND MODELS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY END UP
HIGHER, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE THEM DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH, LAKE AND JUST EAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA.

AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID
SLOPES AND RIDGES. MEANWHILE AN INVERSION IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN. VERY LOCALIZED COASTAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
INLAND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY TONIGHT AND
LINGERING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE...A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED AT NORTH BEND AND IN ROSEBURG. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT
ROSEBURG WILL BECOME IFR TONIGHT...AND NOT AS CONFIDENT WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT NORTH BEND. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR
OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PDT TUE 30 SEP 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE NORTH WINDS
AND WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS TO INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GUSTY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PUSH ABOUT 10NM
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND LOWER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT PASSES TO
THE NORTH. SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DUE TO A BUILDING WESTERLY
SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE WEEKEND, STEEP SEAS AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE MORE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 010037 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
534 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXIST FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO
FORM IN THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EAST
OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS, LONGER NIGHTS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICK AFTER DARK AND
IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME OF
THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHWEST LAKE
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
THUS THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PICTURE FOR
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MIGRATING EAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARNING UP EACH DAY AND WERE LIKELY TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 IN PARTS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT`S STILL GOING TO BE COLD AT
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND MODELS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY END UP
HIGHER, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE THEM DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH, LAKE AND JUST EAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA.

AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID
SLOPES AND RIDGES. MEANWHILE AN INVERSION IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN. VERY LOCALIZED COASTAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
INLAND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY TONIGHT AND
LINGERING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE...A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED AT NORTH BEND AND IN ROSEBURG. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT
ROSEBURG WILL BECOME IFR TONIGHT...AND NOT AS CONFIDENT WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT NORTH BEND. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR
OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PDT TUE 30 SEP 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE NORTH WINDS
AND WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS TO INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GUSTY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PUSH ABOUT 10NM
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND LOWER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT PASSES TO
THE NORTH. SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DUE TO A BUILDING WESTERLY
SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE WEEKEND, STEEP SEAS AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE MORE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 010037 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
534 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXIST FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO
FORM IN THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EAST
OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS, LONGER NIGHTS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICK AFTER DARK AND
IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME OF
THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHWEST LAKE
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
THUS THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PICTURE FOR
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MIGRATING EAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARNING UP EACH DAY AND WERE LIKELY TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 IN PARTS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT`S STILL GOING TO BE COLD AT
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND MODELS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY END UP
HIGHER, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE THEM DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH, LAKE AND JUST EAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA.

AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID
SLOPES AND RIDGES. MEANWHILE AN INVERSION IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN. VERY LOCALIZED COASTAL MVFR CEILINGS AND
INLAND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY TONIGHT AND
LINGERING MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE...A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED AT NORTH BEND AND IN ROSEBURG. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT
ROSEBURG WILL BECOME IFR TONIGHT...AND NOT AS CONFIDENT WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT NORTH BEND. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR
OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 PM PDT TUE 30 SEP 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE NORTH WINDS
AND WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS TO INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GUSTY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PUSH ABOUT 10NM
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND LOWER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT PASSES TO
THE NORTH. SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DUE TO A BUILDING WESTERLY
SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE WEEKEND, STEEP SEAS AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE MORE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$








000
FXUS66 KPDT 302346 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
446 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT TO HAVE GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER
SUNSET. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES STABLE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICK AFTER WINDS DECREASE WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S. COLDER LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
WILL BE IN THE 20S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH SOME
THIN CIRRUS SO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NIGHTS WILL REMAIN
COOL AS A DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY
AND WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE/SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY THROUGH 03Z
AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH THE GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT
06Z AT KPDT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD AFFECT KPDT...KPSC AND
KALW THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. MURPHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  67  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  43  67  43  70 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  39  70  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  36  68  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  38  69  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  40  65  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  27  64  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  36  63  34  67 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  30  64  31  71 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  44  69  42  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/77






000
FXUS66 KPDT 302346 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
446 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT TO HAVE GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER
SUNSET. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES STABLE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICK AFTER WINDS DECREASE WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S. COLDER LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
WILL BE IN THE 20S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH SOME
THIN CIRRUS SO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NIGHTS WILL REMAIN
COOL AS A DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY
AND WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE/SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY THROUGH 03Z
AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH THE GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT
06Z AT KPDT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD AFFECT KPDT...KPSC AND
KALW THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. MURPHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  67  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  43  67  43  70 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  39  70  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  36  68  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  38  69  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  40  65  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  27  64  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  36  63  34  67 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  30  64  31  71 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  44  69  42  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/77







000
FXUS66 KPQR 302219
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
319 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE PAC NW TODAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER. THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST
AND COAST RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TODAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SHOWERS EARLIER THIS MORNING WERE CONFINED MORE TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE AND WERE BEING DRIVEN BY
DECENT NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW. HOWEVER...THE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
DECENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EXISTING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE NOW TAPPING INTO SOME OF THIS
INSTABILITY...AS SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE STARTING
TO LOOK A LITTLE BIT MORE VIGOROUS AND TRYING TO TRAIN FROM NW TO SE.
EXPECT A FEW SPOTS CAUGHT UNDER THESE LINEAR FEATURES WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE PAC NW. THE WARMING ALOFT RESULTING FROM THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASINGLY CAP ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALSO BRING QUITE A BIT OF
CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH DECOUPLING WINDS
OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COAST AND LOW LYING VALLEYS BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER
TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THE AIR
MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP A BIT...LEADING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER...EVEN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COVER. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR MOST. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY SEE
TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S BY EARLY THU MORNING. AGAIN...EXPECT
PLENTY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE COAST AND LOW LYING VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST ON THU.
THIS IS MODELED TO CREATE A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE S OREGON COAST...BRINGING A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW TO MUCH OF SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON ON THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
PLEASANT SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE RIDGE IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER FRI...BRINGING ANOTHER MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS RUNNING A GOOD 5 TO
10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. PYLE

.LONG TERM...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
TODAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STILL KEEPING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTH COAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN OR BECOMES FLATTER WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT WIDE SPREAD RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD BRING WITH IT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL
SITES HAVE CLEARED DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE BUT WILL STILL SEE
OCCASIONAL CIGS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. WITH CALMING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR STRATUS AND
VIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIFR CIGS AND/OR
VIS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT KSLE AND KEUG AFTER 12Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS GENERALLY ABOVE 4000
FT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY EVEN IN PASSING SHOWERS.
LOW MVFR CIGS BEFORE 15Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR VIS...CLEARING BY 18Z.
BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ALREADY DECREASING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 7 FEET...DOWN FROM CLOSER TO 8 FEET THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NE PAC AND REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THU.
A THERMAL LOW MAY BUILD INTO THE S OREGON COAST BY WED OR THU TO
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS
20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH W SWELL RETURNING SEAS TO AROUND 8
FT IN THE SAME TIME FRAME. BOWEN/CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 302219
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
319 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE PAC NW TODAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER. THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST
AND COAST RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TODAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SHOWERS EARLIER THIS MORNING WERE CONFINED MORE TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE AND WERE BEING DRIVEN BY
DECENT NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW. HOWEVER...THE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
DECENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EXISTING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE NOW TAPPING INTO SOME OF THIS
INSTABILITY...AS SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE STARTING
TO LOOK A LITTLE BIT MORE VIGOROUS AND TRYING TO TRAIN FROM NW TO SE.
EXPECT A FEW SPOTS CAUGHT UNDER THESE LINEAR FEATURES WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE PAC NW. THE WARMING ALOFT RESULTING FROM THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASINGLY CAP ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALSO BRING QUITE A BIT OF
CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH DECOUPLING WINDS
OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COAST AND LOW LYING VALLEYS BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER
TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THE AIR
MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP A BIT...LEADING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER...EVEN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COVER. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR MOST. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY SEE
TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S BY EARLY THU MORNING. AGAIN...EXPECT
PLENTY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE COAST AND LOW LYING VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST ON THU.
THIS IS MODELED TO CREATE A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE S OREGON COAST...BRINGING A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW TO MUCH OF SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON ON THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
PLEASANT SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE RIDGE IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER FRI...BRINGING ANOTHER MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS RUNNING A GOOD 5 TO
10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. PYLE

.LONG TERM...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
TODAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STILL KEEPING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTH COAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN OR BECOMES FLATTER WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT WIDE SPREAD RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD BRING WITH IT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL
SITES HAVE CLEARED DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE BUT WILL STILL SEE
OCCASIONAL CIGS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. WITH CALMING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR STRATUS AND
VIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIFR CIGS AND/OR
VIS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT KSLE AND KEUG AFTER 12Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS GENERALLY ABOVE 4000
FT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY EVEN IN PASSING SHOWERS.
LOW MVFR CIGS BEFORE 15Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR VIS...CLEARING BY 18Z.
BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ALREADY DECREASING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 7 FEET...DOWN FROM CLOSER TO 8 FEET THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NE PAC AND REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THU.
A THERMAL LOW MAY BUILD INTO THE S OREGON COAST BY WED OR THU TO
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS
20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH W SWELL RETURNING SEAS TO AROUND 8
FT IN THE SAME TIME FRAME. BOWEN/CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 302219
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
319 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE PAC NW TODAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER. THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST
AND COAST RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TODAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SHOWERS EARLIER THIS MORNING WERE CONFINED MORE TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE AND WERE BEING DRIVEN BY
DECENT NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW. HOWEVER...THE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
DECENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EXISTING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE NOW TAPPING INTO SOME OF THIS
INSTABILITY...AS SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE STARTING
TO LOOK A LITTLE BIT MORE VIGOROUS AND TRYING TO TRAIN FROM NW TO SE.
EXPECT A FEW SPOTS CAUGHT UNDER THESE LINEAR FEATURES WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE PAC NW. THE WARMING ALOFT RESULTING FROM THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASINGLY CAP ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALSO BRING QUITE A BIT OF
CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH DECOUPLING WINDS
OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COAST AND LOW LYING VALLEYS BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER
TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THE AIR
MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP A BIT...LEADING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER...EVEN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COVER. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR MOST. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY SEE
TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S BY EARLY THU MORNING. AGAIN...EXPECT
PLENTY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE COAST AND LOW LYING VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST ON THU.
THIS IS MODELED TO CREATE A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE S OREGON COAST...BRINGING A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW TO MUCH OF SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON ON THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
PLEASANT SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE RIDGE IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER FRI...BRINGING ANOTHER MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS RUNNING A GOOD 5 TO
10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. PYLE

.LONG TERM...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
TODAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STILL KEEPING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTH COAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN OR BECOMES FLATTER WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT WIDE SPREAD RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD BRING WITH IT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL
SITES HAVE CLEARED DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE BUT WILL STILL SEE
OCCASIONAL CIGS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. WITH CALMING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR STRATUS AND
VIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIFR CIGS AND/OR
VIS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT KSLE AND KEUG AFTER 12Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS GENERALLY ABOVE 4000
FT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY EVEN IN PASSING SHOWERS.
LOW MVFR CIGS BEFORE 15Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR VIS...CLEARING BY 18Z.
BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ALREADY DECREASING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 7 FEET...DOWN FROM CLOSER TO 8 FEET THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NE PAC AND REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THU.
A THERMAL LOW MAY BUILD INTO THE S OREGON COAST BY WED OR THU TO
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS
20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH W SWELL RETURNING SEAS TO AROUND 8
FT IN THE SAME TIME FRAME. BOWEN/CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 302219
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
319 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE PAC NW TODAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER. THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST
AND COAST RANGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TODAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SHOWERS EARLIER THIS MORNING WERE CONFINED MORE TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE AND WERE BEING DRIVEN BY
DECENT NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW. HOWEVER...THE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
DECENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EXISTING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE NOW TAPPING INTO SOME OF THIS
INSTABILITY...AS SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE STARTING
TO LOOK A LITTLE BIT MORE VIGOROUS AND TRYING TO TRAIN FROM NW TO SE.
EXPECT A FEW SPOTS CAUGHT UNDER THESE LINEAR FEATURES WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE PAC NW. THE WARMING ALOFT RESULTING FROM THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASINGLY CAP ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALSO BRING QUITE A BIT OF
CLEARING IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH DECOUPLING WINDS
OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COAST AND LOW LYING VALLEYS BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER
TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THE AIR
MASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP A BIT...LEADING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER...EVEN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS COVER. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR MOST. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY SEE
TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S BY EARLY THU MORNING. AGAIN...EXPECT
PLENTY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE COAST AND LOW LYING VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST ON THU.
THIS IS MODELED TO CREATE A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE S OREGON COAST...BRINGING A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW TO MUCH OF SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON ON THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
PLEASANT SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE RIDGE IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER FRI...BRINGING ANOTHER MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS RUNNING A GOOD 5 TO
10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. PYLE

.LONG TERM...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
TODAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STILL KEEPING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTH COAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...IF THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN OR BECOMES FLATTER WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT WIDE SPREAD RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD BRING WITH IT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. /64
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL
SITES HAVE CLEARED DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE BUT WILL STILL SEE
OCCASIONAL CIGS WITH PASSING SHOWERS. WITH CALMING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR STRATUS AND
VIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIFR CIGS AND/OR
VIS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT KSLE AND KEUG AFTER 12Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS GENERALLY ABOVE 4000
FT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY EVEN IN PASSING SHOWERS.
LOW MVFR CIGS BEFORE 15Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR VIS...CLEARING BY 18Z.
BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ALREADY DECREASING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 7 FEET...DOWN FROM CLOSER TO 8 FEET THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NE PAC AND REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THU.
A THERMAL LOW MAY BUILD INTO THE S OREGON COAST BY WED OR THU TO
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS
20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH W SWELL RETURNING SEAS TO AROUND 8
FT IN THE SAME TIME FRAME. BOWEN/CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KMFR 302134
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
234 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXIST FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO
FORM IN THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EAST
OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS, LONGER NIGHTS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICK AFTER DARK AND
IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME OF
THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHWEST LAKE
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
THUS THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PICTURE FOR
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MIGRATING EAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARNING UP EACH DAY AND WERE LIKELY TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 IN PARTS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT`S STILL GOING TO BE COLD AT
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND MODELS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY END UP
HIGHER, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE THEM DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH, LAKE AND JUST EAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA.

AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID
SLOPES AND RIDGES. MEANWHILE AN INVERSION IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING
WITH COVERAGE MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WITH OBSCURATION OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR LATE THIS EVENING THEN A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 10Z) AND PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 16Z. /DW


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 302134
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
234 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXIST FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO
FORM IN THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EAST
OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS, LONGER NIGHTS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICK AFTER DARK AND
IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME OF
THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHWEST LAKE
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
THUS THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PICTURE FOR
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MIGRATING EAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARNING UP EACH DAY AND WERE LIKELY TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 IN PARTS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT`S STILL GOING TO BE COLD AT
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND MODELS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY END UP
HIGHER, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE THEM DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH, LAKE AND JUST EAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA.

AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID
SLOPES AND RIDGES. MEANWHILE AN INVERSION IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING
WITH COVERAGE MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WITH OBSCURATION OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR LATE THIS EVENING THEN A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 10Z) AND PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 16Z. /DW


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 302134
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
234 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXIST FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO
FORM IN THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EAST
OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS, LONGER NIGHTS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICK AFTER DARK AND
IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME OF
THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHWEST LAKE
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
THUS THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PICTURE FOR
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MIGRATING EAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARNING UP EACH DAY AND WERE LIKELY TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 IN PARTS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT`S STILL GOING TO BE COLD AT
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND MODELS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY END UP
HIGHER, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE THEM DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH, LAKE AND JUST EAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA.

AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID
SLOPES AND RIDGES. MEANWHILE AN INVERSION IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING
WITH COVERAGE MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WITH OBSCURATION OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR LATE THIS EVENING THEN A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 10Z) AND PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 16Z. /DW


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 302134
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
234 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXIST FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO
FORM IN THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EAST
OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHT WINDS, LONGER NIGHTS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICK AFTER DARK AND
IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN SOME OF
THE COLDER VALLEY SPOTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHWEST LAKE
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
THUS THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PICTURE FOR
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MIGRATING EAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
REMAINING THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARNING UP EACH DAY AND WERE LIKELY TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 IN PARTS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT`S STILL GOING TO BE COLD AT
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND MODELS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY END UP
HIGHER, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE THEM DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH, LAKE AND JUST EAST OF
MOUNT SHASTA.

AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASING
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID
SLOPES AND RIDGES. MEANWHILE AN INVERSION IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING
WITH COVERAGE MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WITH OBSCURATION OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR LATE THIS EVENING THEN A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 10Z) AND PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 16Z. /DW


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KPDT 302117
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT TO HAVE GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER
SUNSET. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES STABLE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICK AFTER WINDS DECREASE WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S. COLDER LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
WILL BE IN THE 20S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH SOME
THIN CIRRUS SO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NIGHTS WILL REMAIN
COOL AS A DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY
AND WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE/SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE BTWN 15 TO 30 KTS THRU 01/03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AOB 10
KTS OVERNIGHT.  MVFR HAZE AND/OR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST INVOF OF KPDT
IS POSSIBLE THRU 01/03Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. VICINITY SHOWERS NEAR KPDT AND KALW DUE TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE BTWN 01/00Z TO 01/04Z. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  67  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  43  67  43  70 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  39  70  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  36  68  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  38  69  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  40  65  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  27  64  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  36  63  34  67 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  30  64  31  71 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  44  69  42  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/77





000
FXUS66 KPDT 302117
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT TO HAVE GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER
SUNSET. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES STABLE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICK AFTER WINDS DECREASE WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S. COLDER LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
WILL BE IN THE 20S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH SOME
THIN CIRRUS SO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NIGHTS WILL REMAIN
COOL AS A DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY
AND WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE/SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE BTWN 15 TO 30 KTS THRU 01/03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AOB 10
KTS OVERNIGHT.  MVFR HAZE AND/OR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST INVOF OF KPDT
IS POSSIBLE THRU 01/03Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. VICINITY SHOWERS NEAR KPDT AND KALW DUE TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE BTWN 01/00Z TO 01/04Z. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  67  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  43  67  43  70 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  39  70  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  36  68  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  38  69  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  40  65  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  27  64  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  36  63  34  67 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  30  64  31  71 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  44  69  42  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/77





000
FXUS66 KPDT 302117
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT TO HAVE GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER
SUNSET. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES STABLE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICK AFTER WINDS DECREASE WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S. COLDER LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
WILL BE IN THE 20S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH SOME
THIN CIRRUS SO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NIGHTS WILL REMAIN
COOL AS A DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY
AND WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE/SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE BTWN 15 TO 30 KTS THRU 01/03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AOB 10
KTS OVERNIGHT.  MVFR HAZE AND/OR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST INVOF OF KPDT
IS POSSIBLE THRU 01/03Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. VICINITY SHOWERS NEAR KPDT AND KALW DUE TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE BTWN 01/00Z TO 01/04Z. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  67  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  43  67  43  70 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  39  70  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  36  68  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  38  69  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  40  65  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  27  64  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  36  63  34  67 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  30  64  31  71 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  44  69  42  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/77





000
FXUS66 KPDT 302117
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS. EXPECT TO HAVE GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER
SUNSET. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES STABLE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICK AFTER WINDS DECREASE WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S. COLDER LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
WILL BE IN THE 20S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG WITH SOME
THIN CIRRUS SO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. NIGHTS WILL REMAIN
COOL AS A DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS DRY
AND WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE/SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE BTWN 15 TO 30 KTS THRU 01/03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AOB 10
KTS OVERNIGHT.  MVFR HAZE AND/OR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST INVOF OF KPDT
IS POSSIBLE THRU 01/03Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. VICINITY SHOWERS NEAR KPDT AND KALW DUE TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE BTWN 01/00Z TO 01/04Z. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  67  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  43  67  43  70 /  10   0   0   0
PSC  39  70  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  36  68  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  38  69  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  40  65  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  27  64  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  36  63  34  67 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  30  64  31  71 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  44  69  42  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/77





000
FXUS65 KBOI 302039
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AND A LITTLE
COOLER AIR. PRECIP IS ONLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THEN FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE MTNS TOMORROW
MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS LATE WED
THROUGH THU AND BEYOND. WITH LOWERED HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED NW FLOW
ALOFT...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY
FOG IS FORECAST FOR TOMORROW MORNING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
LOW-LYING SPOTS SEEING THAT WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BE NOTICEABLY
LIGHTER TOMORROW AND THU. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST THU...BUT AT THIS TIME IS FORECAST TO BE JUST A
LITTLE TOO FAR AWAY TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN
WEST COAST. EVEN WITH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE HOW WARM OR COOL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KMYL. SURFACE
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KNOTS...BECOMING 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE MAGIC
VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 302039
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
239 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AND A LITTLE
COOLER AIR. PRECIP IS ONLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THEN FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE MTNS TOMORROW
MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS LATE WED
THROUGH THU AND BEYOND. WITH LOWERED HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED NW FLOW
ALOFT...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY
FOG IS FORECAST FOR TOMORROW MORNING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
LOW-LYING SPOTS SEEING THAT WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BE NOTICEABLY
LIGHTER TOMORROW AND THU. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST THU...BUT AT THIS TIME IS FORECAST TO BE JUST A
LITTLE TOO FAR AWAY TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN
WEST COAST. EVEN WITH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE HOW WARM OR COOL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. PATCHY MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KMYL. SURFACE
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KNOTS...BECOMING 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE MAGIC
VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 301733 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1032 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TODAY. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLEAR NOW BUT EXPECT SOME
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GORGE AND
KITTITAS VALLEY. DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. 94

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE BTWN 15
TO 30 KTS THRU 01/03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AOB 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
MVFR HAZE AND/OR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST INVOF OF KPDT IS POSSIBLE
THRU 01/03Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
VICINITY SHOWERS NEAR KPDT AND KALW DUE TO PASSING SHORTWAVE BTWN
01/00Z TO 01/04Z. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  39  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  66  42  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  71  39  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  35  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  69  37  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  62  39  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  61  27  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  58  35  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  58  29  63  34 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  67  43  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/98







000
FXUS66 KPDT 301733 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1032 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TODAY. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLEAR NOW BUT EXPECT SOME
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GORGE AND
KITTITAS VALLEY. DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. 94

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE BTWN 15
TO 30 KTS THRU 01/03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AOB 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
MVFR HAZE AND/OR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST INVOF OF KPDT IS POSSIBLE
THRU 01/03Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
VICINITY SHOWERS NEAR KPDT AND KALW DUE TO PASSING SHORTWAVE BTWN
01/00Z TO 01/04Z. MURPHY/BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  39  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  66  42  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  71  39  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  35  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  69  37  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  62  39  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  61  27  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  58  35  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  58  29  63  34 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  67  43  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/77/98






000
FXUS66 KPQR 301635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER THE PACIFIC NW
WILL KEEP A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD IN OFF THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND WED...AND LAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...A LOOK AT THE LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED
OVER THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING
OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE DAY TODAY AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE NW FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO AGAIN RUN A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS OVER THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOW EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. THE FCST MODELS
INDICATE THE NW FLOW WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHRINK
THE LOW LEVEL UNSTABLE LAYER FROM THE TOP DOWN THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING AN END TO ANY THREAT OF
SHOWERS BY WED MORNING.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO WA AND OREGON WED AND THU
TURN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTHERLY DRYING THE AIR MASS. THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE E PACIFIC THOUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SOME AS IT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT ANY THREAT FOR WARM
FRONTAL TYPE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE RESTRICTED N OF THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME WED AND THU AS H8 TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO
AROUND 12 DEG C. PYLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT
RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW. THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING
CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE VFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CREATE BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS. AS UPPER
LOW PRES SLIDES INLAND...EXPECT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...BETTER
CHANCES FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS GENERALLY ABOVE 4000
FT WITH MVFR CIGS OR VIS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. BOWEN/CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE BRIEF CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25 KT. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PAC TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THU
BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS. A THERMAL
LOW PRES MAY BUILD INTO THE S OREGON COAST BY WED OR THU TO
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS
20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 6-8 FT THROUGH
WED...BEFORE EASING LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER W SWELL WILL RETURN
SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT AT THE END OF THE WEEK. BOWEN/CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&



000
FXUS66 KPQR 301635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
934 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER THE PACIFIC NW
WILL KEEP A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD IN OFF THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND WED...AND LAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...A LOOK AT THE LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED
OVER THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING
OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE DAY TODAY AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE NW FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO AGAIN RUN A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS OVER THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOW EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. THE FCST MODELS
INDICATE THE NW FLOW WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHRINK
THE LOW LEVEL UNSTABLE LAYER FROM THE TOP DOWN THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING AN END TO ANY THREAT OF
SHOWERS BY WED MORNING.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO WA AND OREGON WED AND THU
TURN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTHERLY DRYING THE AIR MASS. THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE E PACIFIC THOUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SOME AS IT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT ANY THREAT FOR WARM
FRONTAL TYPE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE RESTRICTED N OF THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME WED AND THU AS H8 TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO
AROUND 12 DEG C. PYLE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT
RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW. THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING
CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE VFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CREATE BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS. AS UPPER
LOW PRES SLIDES INLAND...EXPECT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...BETTER
CHANCES FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS GENERALLY ABOVE 4000
FT WITH MVFR CIGS OR VIS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. BOWEN/CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE BRIEF CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25 KT. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PAC TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THU
BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS. A THERMAL
LOW PRES MAY BUILD INTO THE S OREGON COAST BY WED OR THU TO
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS
20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 6-8 FT THROUGH
WED...BEFORE EASING LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER W SWELL WILL RETURN
SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT AT THE END OF THE WEEK. BOWEN/CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KMFR 301618
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
918 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER IN PARTS OF THE UMPQUA
BASIN AND NORTH COAST THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT LATER
THIS MORNING, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
FORMING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA THE REST OF TODAY. MADE
SOME UPDATES TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF CRATER LAKE THIS MORNING, BUT I DON`T THINK
WE`LL GET ANYTHING MEASURABLE AND HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL
LIKELY DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AND
WE`LL LIKELY ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. - PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR BUT AREAS OF IFR CIGS AREA EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
INLAND, THE IFR CIGS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE UMPQUA VALLEY BUT
ISOLATED IFR IS POSSIBLE IN OTHER WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE COAST AND
INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING.
THEN EXPECT VFR AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014... HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WATERS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
TODAY AND MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. GUSTY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
LATE THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH
SOME FRIDAY. THEN SEAS INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL
FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE WEEKEND, STEEP SEAS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ONCE MORE FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING AND
BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MANY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE WASN`T A LOT OF RAINFALL, GENERALLY TWO-TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS...BUT THE FRONT DID MANAGE TO BRING A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS TO THE MEDFORD AIRPORT RAIN GAUGE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND THE NORTH COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE SHOULD THIN OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN ALOFT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA AND COAST MAY HOLD ONTO
SOME CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, IT WILL BE COOL BY LATE
SEPTEMBER STANDARDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 70 DEGREES
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND NO BETTER THAN THE LOW 60S OVER
THE EAST SIDE.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN THE COLDEST SPOTS NEAR KLAMATH MARSH WITH READINGS DOWN NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN KLAMATH FALLS, LAKEVIEW AND ALTURAS. AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS, DETAILS
OF WHICH CAN BE VIEWED AT NPWMFR. IN ADDITION, IT WILL GET QUITE
COLD IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS LIKE WEED AND MONTAGUE
MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND A FROST ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THERE. WEST OF THE CASCADES, IT WILL BE COOL IN THE
ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS, BUT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW OUTLYING AREAS MAY REACH THE
MID 30S LIKE NEAR CAVE JUNCTION AND THE APPLEGATE, BUT PROBABLY
NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR FROST IMPACTS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FIRMLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS WITH GENERALLY MID 60S EAST SIDE. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING EXPECT A BIT OF A CHETCO EFFECT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S NEAR BROOKINGS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS POSSIBLE. A CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN A VERY STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE
VERY SIMILAR TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...WHILE SURROUNDING HILLS AND RIDGES WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
MILDER. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT TO BE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING
THIS TIME. THE GFS FLATTENS THE RIDGE A BIT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE SCOOTS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA, WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. OVERALL, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE`LL HAVE PERSISTENT
WARM, DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN MEDFORD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
KLAMATH FALLS. SPILDE



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 301618
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
918 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER IN PARTS OF THE UMPQUA
BASIN AND NORTH COAST THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT LATER
THIS MORNING, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
FORMING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA THE REST OF TODAY. MADE
SOME UPDATES TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF CRATER LAKE THIS MORNING, BUT I DON`T THINK
WE`LL GET ANYTHING MEASURABLE AND HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL
LIKELY DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AND
WE`LL LIKELY ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. - PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR BUT AREAS OF IFR CIGS AREA EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
INLAND, THE IFR CIGS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE UMPQUA VALLEY BUT
ISOLATED IFR IS POSSIBLE IN OTHER WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE COAST AND
INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING.
THEN EXPECT VFR AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014... HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WATERS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
TODAY AND MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. GUSTY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
LATE THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH
SOME FRIDAY. THEN SEAS INCREASE DUE TO BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL
FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE WEEKEND, STEEP SEAS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ONCE MORE FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING AND
BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MANY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE WASN`T A LOT OF RAINFALL, GENERALLY TWO-TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS...BUT THE FRONT DID MANAGE TO BRING A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS TO THE MEDFORD AIRPORT RAIN GAUGE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND THE NORTH COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE SHOULD THIN OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN ALOFT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA AND COAST MAY HOLD ONTO
SOME CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, IT WILL BE COOL BY LATE
SEPTEMBER STANDARDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 70 DEGREES
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND NO BETTER THAN THE LOW 60S OVER
THE EAST SIDE.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN THE COLDEST SPOTS NEAR KLAMATH MARSH WITH READINGS DOWN NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN KLAMATH FALLS, LAKEVIEW AND ALTURAS. AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS, DETAILS
OF WHICH CAN BE VIEWED AT NPWMFR. IN ADDITION, IT WILL GET QUITE
COLD IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS LIKE WEED AND MONTAGUE
MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND A FROST ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THERE. WEST OF THE CASCADES, IT WILL BE COOL IN THE
ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS, BUT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW OUTLYING AREAS MAY REACH THE
MID 30S LIKE NEAR CAVE JUNCTION AND THE APPLEGATE, BUT PROBABLY
NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR FROST IMPACTS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FIRMLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS WITH GENERALLY MID 60S EAST SIDE. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING EXPECT A BIT OF A CHETCO EFFECT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S NEAR BROOKINGS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS POSSIBLE. A CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN A VERY STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE
VERY SIMILAR TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...WHILE SURROUNDING HILLS AND RIDGES WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
MILDER. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT TO BE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING
THIS TIME. THE GFS FLATTENS THE RIDGE A BIT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE SCOOTS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA, WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. OVERALL, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE`LL HAVE PERSISTENT
WARM, DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN MEDFORD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
KLAMATH FALLS. SPILDE



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$






000
FXUS65 KBOI 301554
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
954 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER ONE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHWEST IDAHO
THIS MORNING WILL HAVE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH LOCAL MVFR
AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS AND FOG AND AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS IN
THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KBOI TO KJER/KTWF. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE WESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING OUR CWA THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE THIS MORNING...
DECREASING TO ISOLATED IN THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...15 TO 25 MPH EAST
OF BOISE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...REPLACED
BY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. MODELS AGREE WELL ON TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE. LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN EASTERN OREGON...THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOL...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLOW CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS ARE DRY AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
GFS SOLUTION IS QUICKER TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS OR ECM ENSEMBLE MEANS NOR PREFERRED BY HPC.
THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECM GUIDANCE FOR
SUN/MON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...JT
PREV LONG TERM....DG



000
FXUS66 KPDT 301542
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
844 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TODAY. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLEAR NOW BUT EXPECT SOME
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GORGE AND
KITTITAS VALLEY. DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AT
4-6 KFT WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  39  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  66  42  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  71  39  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  35  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  69  37  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  62  39  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  61  27  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  58  35  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  58  29  63  34 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  67  43  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94





000
FXUS66 KPDT 301542
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
844 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TODAY. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLEAR NOW BUT EXPECT SOME
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GORGE AND
KITTITAS VALLEY. DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AT
4-6 KFT WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  39  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  66  42  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  71  39  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  35  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  69  37  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  62  39  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  61  27  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  58  35  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  58  29  63  34 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  67  43  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94





000
FXUS66 KPDT 301542
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
844 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TODAY. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLEAR NOW BUT EXPECT SOME
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GORGE AND
KITTITAS VALLEY. DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AT
4-6 KFT WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  39  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  66  42  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  71  39  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  35  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  69  37  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  62  39  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  61  27  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  58  35  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  58  29  63  34 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  67  43  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94





000
FXUS66 KPDT 301542
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
844 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TODAY. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CASCADES AND BLUES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLEAR NOW BUT EXPECT SOME
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GORGE AND
KITTITAS VALLEY. DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AT
4-6 KFT WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  65  39  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  66  42  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  71  39  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  35  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  69  37  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  62  39  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  61  27  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  58  35  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  58  29  63  34 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  67  43  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94





000
FXUS66 KMFR 301001
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
301 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING AND
BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MANY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE WASN`T A LOT OF RAINFALL, GENERALLY TWO-TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS...BUT THE FRONT DID MANAGE TO BRING A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS TO THE MEDFORD AIRPORT RAIN GAUGE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND THE NORTH COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE SHOULD THIN OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN ALOFT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA AND COAST MAY HOLD ONTO
SOME CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, IT WILL BE COOL BY LATE
SEPTEMBER STANDARDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 70 DEGREES
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND NO BETTER THAN THE LOW 60S OVER
THE EAST SIDE.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN THE COLDEST SPOTS NEAR KLAMATH MARSH WITH READINGS DOWN NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN KLAMATH FALLS, LAKEVIEW AND ALTURAS. AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS, DETAILS
OF WHICH CAN BE VIEWED AT NPWMFR. IN ADDITION, IT WILL GET QUITE
COLD IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS LIKE WEED AND MONTAGUE
MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND A FROST ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THERE. WEST OF THE CASCADES, IT WILL BE COOL IN THE
ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS, BUT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW OUTLYING AREAS MAY REACH THE
MID 30S LIKE NEAR CAVE JUNCTION AND THE APPLEGATE, BUT PROBABLY
NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR FROST IMPACTS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FIRMLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS WITH GENERALLY MID 60S EAST SIDE. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING EXPECT A BIT OF A CHETCO EFFECT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S NEAR BROOKINGS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS POSSIBLE. A CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN A VERY STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE
VERY SIMILAR TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...WHILE SURROUNDING HILLS AND RIDGES WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
MILDER. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT TO BE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING
THIS TIME. THE GFS FLATTENS THE RIDGE A BIT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE SCOOTS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA, WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. OVERALL, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE`LL HAVE PERSISTENT
WARM, DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN MEDFORD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
KLAMATH FALLS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. COAST AND
INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING...EXCEPT FOR
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 PM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. ON FRIDAY
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SOME. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.

$$

MAS/CC/FJB







000
FXUS66 KMFR 301001
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
301 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING AND
BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MANY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE WASN`T A LOT OF RAINFALL, GENERALLY TWO-TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS...BUT THE FRONT DID MANAGE TO BRING A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS TO THE MEDFORD AIRPORT RAIN GAUGE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND THE NORTH COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE SHOULD THIN OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN ALOFT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA AND COAST MAY HOLD ONTO
SOME CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, IT WILL BE COOL BY LATE
SEPTEMBER STANDARDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 70 DEGREES
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND NO BETTER THAN THE LOW 60S OVER
THE EAST SIDE.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN THE COLDEST SPOTS NEAR KLAMATH MARSH WITH READINGS DOWN NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN KLAMATH FALLS, LAKEVIEW AND ALTURAS. AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS, DETAILS
OF WHICH CAN BE VIEWED AT NPWMFR. IN ADDITION, IT WILL GET QUITE
COLD IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS LIKE WEED AND MONTAGUE
MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND A FROST ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THERE. WEST OF THE CASCADES, IT WILL BE COOL IN THE
ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS, BUT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW OUTLYING AREAS MAY REACH THE
MID 30S LIKE NEAR CAVE JUNCTION AND THE APPLEGATE, BUT PROBABLY
NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR FROST IMPACTS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FIRMLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS WITH GENERALLY MID 60S EAST SIDE. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING EXPECT A BIT OF A CHETCO EFFECT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S NEAR BROOKINGS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS POSSIBLE. A CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN A VERY STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE
VERY SIMILAR TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...WHILE SURROUNDING HILLS AND RIDGES WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
MILDER. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT TO BE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING
THIS TIME. THE GFS FLATTENS THE RIDGE A BIT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE SCOOTS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA, WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. OVERALL, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE`LL HAVE PERSISTENT
WARM, DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN MEDFORD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
KLAMATH FALLS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. COAST AND
INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING...EXCEPT FOR
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 PM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. ON FRIDAY
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SOME. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.

$$

MAS/CC/FJB







000
FXUS66 KMFR 301001
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
301 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING AND
BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MANY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE WASN`T A LOT OF RAINFALL, GENERALLY TWO-TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS...BUT THE FRONT DID MANAGE TO BRING A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS TO THE MEDFORD AIRPORT RAIN GAUGE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND THE NORTH COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE SHOULD THIN OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN ALOFT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA AND COAST MAY HOLD ONTO
SOME CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, IT WILL BE COOL BY LATE
SEPTEMBER STANDARDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 70 DEGREES
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND NO BETTER THAN THE LOW 60S OVER
THE EAST SIDE.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN THE COLDEST SPOTS NEAR KLAMATH MARSH WITH READINGS DOWN NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN KLAMATH FALLS, LAKEVIEW AND ALTURAS. AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS, DETAILS
OF WHICH CAN BE VIEWED AT NPWMFR. IN ADDITION, IT WILL GET QUITE
COLD IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS LIKE WEED AND MONTAGUE
MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND A FROST ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THERE. WEST OF THE CASCADES, IT WILL BE COOL IN THE
ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS, BUT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW OUTLYING AREAS MAY REACH THE
MID 30S LIKE NEAR CAVE JUNCTION AND THE APPLEGATE, BUT PROBABLY
NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR FROST IMPACTS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FIRMLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS WITH GENERALLY MID 60S EAST SIDE. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING EXPECT A BIT OF A CHETCO EFFECT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S NEAR BROOKINGS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS POSSIBLE. A CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN A VERY STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE
VERY SIMILAR TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...WHILE SURROUNDING HILLS AND RIDGES WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
MILDER. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT TO BE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING
THIS TIME. THE GFS FLATTENS THE RIDGE A BIT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE SCOOTS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA, WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. OVERALL, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE`LL HAVE PERSISTENT
WARM, DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN MEDFORD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
KLAMATH FALLS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. COAST AND
INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING...EXCEPT FOR
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 PM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. ON FRIDAY
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SOME. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.

$$

MAS/CC/FJB







000
FXUS66 KMFR 301001
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
301 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING AND
BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO MANY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. THERE WASN`T A LOT OF RAINFALL, GENERALLY TWO-TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS...BUT THE FRONT DID MANAGE TO BRING A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS TO THE MEDFORD AIRPORT RAIN GAUGE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADES AND THE NORTH COAST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE SHOULD THIN OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN ALOFT...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA AND COAST MAY HOLD ONTO
SOME CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, IT WILL BE COOL BY LATE
SEPTEMBER STANDARDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 70 DEGREES
OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND NO BETTER THAN THE LOW 60S OVER
THE EAST SIDE.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN THE COLDEST SPOTS NEAR KLAMATH MARSH WITH READINGS DOWN NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN KLAMATH FALLS, LAKEVIEW AND ALTURAS. AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS, DETAILS
OF WHICH CAN BE VIEWED AT NPWMFR. IN ADDITION, IT WILL GET QUITE
COLD IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS LIKE WEED AND MONTAGUE
MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND A FROST ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT THERE. WEST OF THE CASCADES, IT WILL BE COOL IN THE
ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS, BUT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW OUTLYING AREAS MAY REACH THE
MID 30S LIKE NEAR CAVE JUNCTION AND THE APPLEGATE, BUT PROBABLY
NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR FROST IMPACTS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN FIRMLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS WITH GENERALLY MID 60S EAST SIDE. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING EXPECT A BIT OF A CHETCO EFFECT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S NEAR BROOKINGS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS POSSIBLE. A CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN A VERY STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE
VERY SIMILAR TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...WHILE SURROUNDING HILLS AND RIDGES WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
MILDER. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT TO BE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING
THIS TIME. THE GFS FLATTENS THE RIDGE A BIT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE SCOOTS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA, WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. OVERALL, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE`LL HAVE PERSISTENT
WARM, DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN MEDFORD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
KLAMATH FALLS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. COAST AND
INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING...EXCEPT FOR
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 PM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. ON FRIDAY
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT PASSING TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SOME. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ081-082-084-085.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.

$$

MAS/CC/FJB







000
FXUS66 KPQR 300932
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER THE PACIFIC NW
WILL KEEP A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD IN OFF THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND WED...AND LAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE IN
OFF THE PACIFIC OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN A NW
FLOW. MESOWEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE OVER THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE TERRAIN...WITH
A BIT OF A RAIN SHADOW EFFECT TO THE LEE SIDE. WATER VAPOR PICTURES
SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE CASCADES THIS MORNING MOVING
E. A SECONDARY TROUGH COMING DOWN THE BC COAST THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TODAY...BUT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONTINUING OVER THE UPWIND SLOPES. MODELS INDICATE THE NW FLOW
WEAKENING TONIGHT. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHRINK THE LOW LEVEL UNSTABLE LAYER FROM
THE TOP DOWN TONIGHT...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING AN END TO ANY THREAT OF
SHOWERS BY WED MORNING. COOL TEMPS WILL REMAIN AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS TODAY AND AFTERNOON H8 TEMPS DROP AS LOW AS 6 DEG C.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO WA AND OREGON WED AND THU
TURN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTHERLY DRYING THE AIR MASS. THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE E PACIFIC THOUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SOME AS IT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT ANY THREAT FOR WARM
FRONTAL TYPE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE RESTRICTED N OF THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME WED AND THU AS H8 TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO
AROUND 12 DEG C.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT
RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW. THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING
CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE VFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE AND ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CREATE BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...ANY AREAS WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND CALM WINDS MAY
DEVELOP SHALLOW RADIATION FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AS UPPER LOW PRES SLIDES INLAND...EXPECT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CALMING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES...BETTER CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TUE NIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS GENERALLY ABOVE 4000
FT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT TIMES. ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING 12Z-17Z THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...SHOWERS
CONTINUE MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT VFR WITH
PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PAC TODAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THU BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
WATERS. A THERMAL LOW PRES MAY BUILD INTO THE S OREGON COAST BY
WED OR THU TO INCREASE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...BUT
EXPECT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 7-8
FT THROUGH WED...BEFORE EASING LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER W SWELL
WILL RETURN SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT AT THE END OF THE WEEK. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300932
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER THE PACIFIC NW
WILL KEEP A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD IN OFF THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND WED...AND LAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.
&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE IN
OFF THE PACIFIC OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN A NW
FLOW. MESOWEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE OVER THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE TERRAIN...WITH
A BIT OF A RAIN SHADOW EFFECT TO THE LEE SIDE. WATER VAPOR PICTURES
SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE CASCADES THIS MORNING MOVING
E. A SECONDARY TROUGH COMING DOWN THE BC COAST THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TODAY...BUT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONTINUING OVER THE UPWIND SLOPES. MODELS INDICATE THE NW FLOW
WEAKENING TONIGHT. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHRINK THE LOW LEVEL UNSTABLE LAYER FROM
THE TOP DOWN TONIGHT...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING AN END TO ANY THREAT OF
SHOWERS BY WED MORNING. COOL TEMPS WILL REMAIN AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS TODAY AND AFTERNOON H8 TEMPS DROP AS LOW AS 6 DEG C.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO WA AND OREGON WED AND THU
TURN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTHERLY DRYING THE AIR MASS. THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE E PACIFIC THOUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SOME AS IT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT ANY THREAT FOR WARM
FRONTAL TYPE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE RESTRICTED N OF THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME WED AND THU AS H8 TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO
AROUND 12 DEG C.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT
RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW. THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING
CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE VFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE AND ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CREATE BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...ANY AREAS WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND CALM WINDS MAY
DEVELOP SHALLOW RADIATION FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AS UPPER LOW PRES SLIDES INLAND...EXPECT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CALMING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES...BETTER CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TUE NIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VARIABLE CLOUD LAYERS GENERALLY ABOVE 4000
FT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT TIMES. ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING 12Z-17Z THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...SHOWERS
CONTINUE MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT VFR WITH
PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE NE PAC TODAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THU BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
WATERS. A THERMAL LOW PRES MAY BUILD INTO THE S OREGON COAST BY
WED OR THU TO INCREASE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...BUT
EXPECT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 7-8
FT THROUGH WED...BEFORE EASING LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER W SWELL
WILL RETURN SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT AT THE END OF THE WEEK. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&



000
FXUS65 KBOI 300913
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
313 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING OUR CWA THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE THIS MORNING...
DECREASING TO ISOLATED IN THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...15 TO 25 MPH EAST
OF BOISE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...REPLACED
BY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. MODELS AGREE WELL ON TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE. LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN EASTERN OREGON...THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOL...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLOW CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS ARE DRY AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
GFS SOLUTION IS QUICKER TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS OR ECM ENSEMBLE MEANS NOR PREFERRED BY HPC.
THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECM GUIDANCE FOR
SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
ACROSS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW IDAHO. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MTN VALLEYS THE LAST TO CLEAR. VFR MOVING
FORWARD FROM TODAY...THOUGH PATCHY MTN VALLEY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM AND AVIATION....DG



000
FXUS65 KBOI 300913
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
313 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING OUR CWA THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE THIS MORNING...
DECREASING TO ISOLATED IN THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...15 TO 25 MPH EAST
OF BOISE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...REPLACED
BY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. MODELS AGREE WELL ON TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE. LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN EASTERN OREGON...THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOL...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLOW CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS ARE DRY AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
GFS SOLUTION IS QUICKER TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS OR ECM ENSEMBLE MEANS NOR PREFERRED BY HPC.
THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECM GUIDANCE FOR
SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
ACROSS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW IDAHO. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MTN VALLEYS THE LAST TO CLEAR. VFR MOVING
FORWARD FROM TODAY...THOUGH PATCHY MTN VALLEY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM AND AVIATION....DG



000
FXUS65 KBOI 300913
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
313 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING OUR CWA THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE THIS MORNING...
DECREASING TO ISOLATED IN THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...15 TO 25 MPH EAST
OF BOISE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...REPLACED
BY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. MODELS AGREE WELL ON TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE. LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN EASTERN OREGON...THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOL...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLOW CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS ARE DRY AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
GFS SOLUTION IS QUICKER TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS OR ECM ENSEMBLE MEANS NOR PREFERRED BY HPC.
THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECM GUIDANCE FOR
SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
ACROSS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW IDAHO. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MTN VALLEYS THE LAST TO CLEAR. VFR MOVING
FORWARD FROM TODAY...THOUGH PATCHY MTN VALLEY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM AND AVIATION....DG



000
FXUS65 KBOI 300913
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
313 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING OUR CWA THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE THIS MORNING...
DECREASING TO ISOLATED IN THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...15 TO 25 MPH EAST
OF BOISE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...REPLACED
BY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. MODELS AGREE WELL ON TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE. LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN EASTERN OREGON...THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOL...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLOW CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS ARE DRY AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
GFS SOLUTION IS QUICKER TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS OR ECM ENSEMBLE MEANS NOR PREFERRED BY HPC.
THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECM GUIDANCE FOR
SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
ACROSS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW IDAHO. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MTN VALLEYS THE LAST TO CLEAR. VFR MOVING
FORWARD FROM TODAY...THOUGH PATCHY MTN VALLEY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM AND AVIATION....DG



000
FXUS66 KPDT 300822 CCA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CORRECTED TIMING OF FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT IN THE HIGHLIGHTS
SECTION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AT
4-6 KFT WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  64  38  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  41  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  69  38  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  34  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  68  36  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  61  38  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  60  26  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  57  34  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  57  28  63  34 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  65  42  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78






000
FXUS66 KPDT 300822 CCA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CORRECTED TIMING OF FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT IN THE HIGHLIGHTS
SECTION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AT
4-6 KFT WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  64  38  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  41  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  69  38  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  34  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  68  36  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  61  38  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  60  26  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  57  34  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  57  28  63  34 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  65  42  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78







000
FXUS66 KPDT 300809
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AT
4-6 KFT WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  64  38  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  41  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  69  38  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  34  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  68  36  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  61  38  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  60  26  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  57  34  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  57  28  63  34 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  65  42  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78








000
FXUS66 KPDT 300809
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
109 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST EVENING BROUGHT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN
CWA. THESE HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING. WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY
AS A RESULT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND DUE TO
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN CENTRAL OREGON (MADRAS...REDMOND AND BEND) ARE ALL EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING THERE
FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD. ON
WEDNESDAY COOL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AFTER THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. 88

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND PERHAPS PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO
FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. ANY
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS AT
4-6 KFT WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND KDLS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THIS
EVENING. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  64  38  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  41  66  44 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  69  38  69  41 /  10   0   0   0
YKM  66  34  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  68  36  68  40 /  10   0   0   0
ELN  61  38  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  60  26  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  57  34  62  36 /  20  10   0   0
GCD  57  28  63  34 /  20  10   0   0
DLS  65  42  68  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ511.

WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78









000
FXUS66 KPDT 300542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1042 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 9 PM PDT. WINDS INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THE OREGON
LOWER BASIN. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS A PROBLEM NEAR PENDLETON FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS RAN BETWEEN 25 AND 30
MPH SUSTAINED AT THAT TIME. MOISTURE TRAILING THE COLD FRONT HAS
CREATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT NOW RUN FROM THE
WASHINGTON LOWER BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GRANT
AND EASTERN WHEELER COUNTIES IN OREGON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
EAST AND EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT, THE WEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP A FEW
SLOP OVER SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND SOME UPSLOPE
INDUCED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. UPDATES THIS
EVENING FOCUSED ON ADJUSTING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY COVER. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE AREA FAIR AND DRY THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON FRIDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL CRASH INTO THE RIDGE AND COME
ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. IT WILL ALSO DRIVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL HANG UP ON
CASCADES AND DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE RIDGE BACK OFF SHORE WITH US ON THE
EASTERN EDGE. BOTH KEEP A STREAM OF MOISTURE IN A WESTERLY FLOW JUST
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE COMPROMISED ON TEMPERATURES BY
LOWERING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. COOL, MOIST AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR KALW AND KPDT EARLY IN THIS PERIOD,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST OF THESE FIELDS. CIGS,
WHERE THEY OCCUR, WILL MOSTLY BE BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS AT KBDN ARE EXPECTED MOVE IN AND OUT
DURING THE FIRST 3 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL MAINLY RUN BETWEEN 10 AND
20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS AT KPDT
AND KDLS. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  66  41  67 /  30  10  10   0
ALW  53  67  44  67 /  30  10  10   0
PSC  50  72  41  70 /  30  10   0   0
YKM  45  67  37  67 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  51  70  39  69 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  49  64  41  65 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  37  62  29  65 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  45  60  37  63 /  30  20  10   0
GCD  41  60  31  65 /  20  20  10   0
DLS  54  68  45  69 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 300542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1042 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 9 PM PDT. WINDS INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THE OREGON
LOWER BASIN. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS A PROBLEM NEAR PENDLETON FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS RAN BETWEEN 25 AND 30
MPH SUSTAINED AT THAT TIME. MOISTURE TRAILING THE COLD FRONT HAS
CREATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT NOW RUN FROM THE
WASHINGTON LOWER BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GRANT
AND EASTERN WHEELER COUNTIES IN OREGON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
EAST AND EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT, THE WEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP A FEW
SLOP OVER SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND SOME UPSLOPE
INDUCED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. UPDATES THIS
EVENING FOCUSED ON ADJUSTING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY COVER. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE AREA FAIR AND DRY THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON FRIDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL CRASH INTO THE RIDGE AND COME
ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. IT WILL ALSO DRIVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL HANG UP ON
CASCADES AND DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE RIDGE BACK OFF SHORE WITH US ON THE
EASTERN EDGE. BOTH KEEP A STREAM OF MOISTURE IN A WESTERLY FLOW JUST
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE COMPROMISED ON TEMPERATURES BY
LOWERING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. COOL, MOIST AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR KALW AND KPDT EARLY IN THIS PERIOD,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST OF THESE FIELDS. CIGS,
WHERE THEY OCCUR, WILL MOSTLY BE BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS AT KBDN ARE EXPECTED MOVE IN AND OUT
DURING THE FIRST 3 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL MAINLY RUN BETWEEN 10 AND
20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS AT KPDT
AND KDLS. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  66  41  67 /  30  10  10   0
ALW  53  67  44  67 /  30  10  10   0
PSC  50  72  41  70 /  30  10   0   0
YKM  45  67  37  67 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  51  70  39  69 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  49  64  41  65 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  37  62  29  65 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  45  60  37  63 /  30  20  10   0
GCD  41  60  31  65 /  20  20  10   0
DLS  54  68  45  69 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 300542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1042 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 9 PM PDT. WINDS INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THE OREGON
LOWER BASIN. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS A PROBLEM NEAR PENDLETON FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS RAN BETWEEN 25 AND 30
MPH SUSTAINED AT THAT TIME. MOISTURE TRAILING THE COLD FRONT HAS
CREATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT NOW RUN FROM THE
WASHINGTON LOWER BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GRANT
AND EASTERN WHEELER COUNTIES IN OREGON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
EAST AND EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT, THE WEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP A FEW
SLOP OVER SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND SOME UPSLOPE
INDUCED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. UPDATES THIS
EVENING FOCUSED ON ADJUSTING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY COVER. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE AREA FAIR AND DRY THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON FRIDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL CRASH INTO THE RIDGE AND COME
ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. IT WILL ALSO DRIVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL HANG UP ON
CASCADES AND DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE RIDGE BACK OFF SHORE WITH US ON THE
EASTERN EDGE. BOTH KEEP A STREAM OF MOISTURE IN A WESTERLY FLOW JUST
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE COMPROMISED ON TEMPERATURES BY
LOWERING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. COOL, MOIST AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR KALW AND KPDT EARLY IN THIS PERIOD,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST OF THESE FIELDS. CIGS,
WHERE THEY OCCUR, WILL MOSTLY BE BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS AT KBDN ARE EXPECTED MOVE IN AND OUT
DURING THE FIRST 3 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL MAINLY RUN BETWEEN 10 AND
20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS AT KPDT
AND KDLS. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  66  41  67 /  30  10  10   0
ALW  53  67  44  67 /  30  10  10   0
PSC  50  72  41  70 /  30  10   0   0
YKM  45  67  37  67 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  51  70  39  69 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  49  64  41  65 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  37  62  29  65 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  45  60  37  63 /  30  20  10   0
GCD  41  60  31  65 /  20  20  10   0
DLS  54  68  45  69 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 300542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1042 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 9 PM PDT. WINDS INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THE OREGON
LOWER BASIN. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS A PROBLEM NEAR PENDLETON FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS RAN BETWEEN 25 AND 30
MPH SUSTAINED AT THAT TIME. MOISTURE TRAILING THE COLD FRONT HAS
CREATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT NOW RUN FROM THE
WASHINGTON LOWER BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GRANT
AND EASTERN WHEELER COUNTIES IN OREGON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
EAST AND EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT, THE WEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP A FEW
SLOP OVER SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND SOME UPSLOPE
INDUCED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. UPDATES THIS
EVENING FOCUSED ON ADJUSTING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY COVER. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE AREA FAIR AND DRY THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON FRIDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL CRASH INTO THE RIDGE AND COME
ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. IT WILL ALSO DRIVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL HANG UP ON
CASCADES AND DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE RIDGE BACK OFF SHORE WITH US ON THE
EASTERN EDGE. BOTH KEEP A STREAM OF MOISTURE IN A WESTERLY FLOW JUST
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE COMPROMISED ON TEMPERATURES BY
LOWERING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. COOL, MOIST AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR KALW AND KPDT EARLY IN THIS PERIOD,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST OF THESE FIELDS. CIGS,
WHERE THEY OCCUR, WILL MOSTLY BE BETWEEN 4000 AND 10000 FT AGL
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS AT KBDN ARE EXPECTED MOVE IN AND OUT
DURING THE FIRST 3 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL MAINLY RUN BETWEEN 10 AND
20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS AT KPDT
AND KDLS. 90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  66  41  67 /  30  10  10   0
ALW  53  67  44  67 /  30  10  10   0
PSC  50  72  41  70 /  30  10   0   0
YKM  45  67  37  67 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  51  70  39  69 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  49  64  41  65 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  37  62  29  65 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  45  60  37  63 /  30  20  10   0
GCD  41  60  31  65 /  20  20  10   0
DLS  54  68  45  69 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 300353
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
853 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 9 PM PDT. WINDS INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THE OREGON
LOWER BASIN. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS A PROBLEM NEAR PENDLETON FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS RAN BETWEEN 25 AND 30
MPH SUSTAINED AT THAT TIME. MOISTURE TRAILING THE COLD FRONT HAS
CREATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT NOW RUN FROM THE
WASHINGTON LOWER BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GRANT
AND EASTERN WHEELER COUNTIES IN OREGON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
EAST AND EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT, THE WEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP A FEW
SLOP OVER SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND SOME UPSLOPE
INDUCED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. UPDATES THIS
EVENING FOCUSED ON ADJUSTING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY COVER. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE AREA FAIR AND DRY THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON FRIDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL CRASH INTO THE RIDGE AND COME
ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. IT WILL ALSO DRIVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL HANG UP ON
CASCADES AND DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE RIDGE BACK OFF SHORE WITH US ON THE
EASTERN EDGE. BOTH KEEP A STREAM OF MOISTURE IN A WESTERLY FLOW JUST
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE COMPROMISED ON TEMPERATURES BY
LOWERING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GIVE WAY TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALW AND PERHAPS KPDT FROM
02Z-09Z THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR TOMORROW MORNING
AFTER 12Z BUT WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 18Z. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN 5 TO 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT. KDLS AND KPDT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS TOMORROW AFTER 18Z WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  66  41  67 /  30  10  10   0
ALW  53  67  44  67 /  30  10  10   0
PSC  50  72  41  70 /  30  10   0   0
YKM  45  67  37  67 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  51  70  39  69 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  49  64  41  65 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  37  62  29  65 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  45  60  37  63 /  30  20  10   0
GCD  41  60  31  65 /  20  20  10   0
DLS  54  68  45  69 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/90








000
FXUS66 KPDT 300353
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
853 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE...A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IS CURRENTLY OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 9 PM PDT. WINDS INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OREGON BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND THE OREGON
LOWER BASIN. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WAS A PROBLEM NEAR PENDLETON FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS RAN BETWEEN 25 AND 30
MPH SUSTAINED AT THAT TIME. MOISTURE TRAILING THE COLD FRONT HAS
CREATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT NOW RUN FROM THE
WASHINGTON LOWER BASIN AND BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GRANT
AND EASTERN WHEELER COUNTIES IN OREGON. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
EAST AND EXPECT THEM TO LARGELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT, THE WEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP A FEW
SLOP OVER SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, AND SOME UPSLOPE
INDUCED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. UPDATES THIS
EVENING FOCUSED ON ADJUSTING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY COVER. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE AREA FAIR AND DRY THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON FRIDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL CRASH INTO THE RIDGE AND COME
ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. IT WILL ALSO DRIVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL HANG UP ON
CASCADES AND DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR
AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE RIDGE BACK OFF SHORE WITH US ON THE
EASTERN EDGE. BOTH KEEP A STREAM OF MOISTURE IN A WESTERLY FLOW JUST
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE COMPROMISED ON TEMPERATURES BY
LOWERING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GIVE WAY TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALW AND PERHAPS KPDT FROM
02Z-09Z THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR TOMORROW MORNING
AFTER 12Z BUT WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 18Z. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN 5 TO 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT. KDLS AND KPDT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS TOMORROW AFTER 18Z WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  66  41  67 /  30  10  10   0
ALW  53  67  44  67 /  30  10  10   0
PSC  50  72  41  70 /  30  10   0   0
YKM  45  67  37  67 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  51  70  39  69 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  49  64  41  65 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  37  62  29  65 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  45  60  37  63 /  30  20  10   0
GCD  41  60  31  65 /  20  20  10   0
DLS  54  68  45  69 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/83/90









000
FXUS66 KMFR 300340
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
840 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES AND
STRETCHES FROM BURNS SOUTHWEST THROUGH LAKEVIEW. BOTH COOS AND
DOUGLAS COUNTIES REPORTED MEASURABLE RAIN EARLIER THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY. HAVE UPDATED TO FORECAST TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND EXPAND SHOWERS AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
TONIGHT DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BUT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE FROST/FREEZE RANGE EAST OF THE CASCADES. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE AND ONTO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONTO THE EAST SIDE. MVFR AND IFR
ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH
ISOLATED LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. FURTHER INLAND, IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY, MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD TO BECOME NEAR TOTAL THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING PARTIAL AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ON THE EAST SIDE
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BUT VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. ON TUESDAY MVFR ON
THE WEST SIDE WILL BREAK UP LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 PM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST. ON FRIDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN
AS A COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH SOME. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EATS INTO THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT, BUT OTHER
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY DUE TO THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND THE SYSTEM ITSELF LACKING A DEEP
CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT SOME COULD LINGER
IN THE UMPQUA AND THE CASCADES INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE, WITH SOME
OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON LIKELY TO OCCUR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT, THERE ARE MANY LOCATIONS ON
THE EAST SIDE THAT COULD DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY
AS THE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS THAT LOOK
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD FROST OR A FREEZE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TEMPERATURES THAT THE AREAS WILL
DROP TO, BUT FEEL THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
TOO WARM THAN TOO COLD. WITH INCREASING CERTAINTY AND ANOTHER PAIR
OF EYES ON THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE, CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE,
AND THE WATCH CAN THEN BE UPGRADED TO THE NECESSARY FROST AND/OR
FREEZE HEADLINES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF OTHER
THAN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS, DESPITE THEIR
CONTINUING INCONSISTENCIES IN THE LONG TERM, REMAIN FIRMLY
CONVINCED IN THE GENERAL PATTERN: THAT OF A LARGE BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE REGION BEGINNING MIDWEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY COMING TO A CONSENSUS CONCERNING SOME
FEATURES WITHIN THE WESTERLIES UPSTREAM, AND THIS IS LEADING TO
THE INCREASED DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN RUNS. KEEPING THIS IN MIND, A
STRAY SHORTWAVE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH THE
RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AND OFFSHORE FLOW, AND SUCH A LARGE
RIDGE OVERHEAD, A SMALLER WEAKER FEATURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT HEADWAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES AT ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
DURATION. -BPN

AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE AND ONTO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONTO THE EAST SIDE. MVFR AND IFR
ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH
ISOLATED LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. FURTHER INLAND, IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY, MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD TO BECOME NEAR TOTAL THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING PARTIAL AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ON THE EAST SIDE
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BUT VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. ON TUESDAY MVFR ON
THE WEST SIDE WILL BREAK UP LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 3PM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY. THESE NORTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL STEEPEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY A FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN CANADA IS LIKELY TO PUSH THE
OFFSHORE HIGH A BIT FURTHER EAST CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO
DIMINISH SOME BEFORE LIKELY INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11
     AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11
     PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL






000
FXUS66 KPQR 300340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
833 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...USHERING A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE.  NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BRING THE FIRST DUSTING OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI
RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE
RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TODAY IS NOW
EAST OF THE CASCADES. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER THE
CASCADES WHERE MODERATE OROGRAPHICS IS MAINTAINING RAIN RATES AROUND
0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER HOUR.  INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP SHOW LOWER
CLOUDS OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS ACTIVITY.  THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SHOULD ESCAPE THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AS SOME RAIN SHADOWING IS LIKELY IN THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW BELOW 850 MB.

LOWERING SNOW LEVELS...MODEL 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND
SOUNDING TEMPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FT OVER THE S WA AND N OR CASCADES BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO ANTICYCLONIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME LOW LYING SPOTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WED
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT THE TREND DEFINITELY
APPEARS TO BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM JUST A BIT WED AS WEAK SUBSIDE BEGINS TO OCCUR...BUT DAYTIME
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. THEN EXPECT THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR WED NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS POINT...AND WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CREATING NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WE
INCREASED LOW TEMPS JUST A BIT WITH THE LATEST FCST...BUT STILL HAVE
MANY OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEG F. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A LIGHT FROST. ALSO
EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THU MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MODELED TO MOVE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST
ON THU. THIS MAY ALLOW A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
BUILD ALONG THE S OR COAST...WHICH WOULD CREATE A NORTHERLY OR EVEN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR FCST AREA. EXPECT THU TO BE A SUNNY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. PYLE/MH

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...NOT MUCH CHANCE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW.
THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL CALM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT SHALLOW RADIATION FOG TO RESULT IN
SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF KMMV.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...SEAS FLIRTED WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
NEWPORT OREGON THIS EVENING AS BUOY 50 HAD ONE OBSERVATIONS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 9.5 FEET. A NW SWELL BETWEEN 6 AND 8
FEET
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY AND HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
     11 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
833 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...USHERING A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE.  NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BRING THE FIRST DUSTING OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI
RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE
RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TODAY IS NOW
EAST OF THE CASCADES. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER THE
CASCADES WHERE MODERATE OROGRAPHICS IS MAINTAINING RAIN RATES AROUND
0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER HOUR.  INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP SHOW LOWER
CLOUDS OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS ACTIVITY.  THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SHOULD ESCAPE THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AS SOME RAIN SHADOWING IS LIKELY IN THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW BELOW 850 MB.

LOWERING SNOW LEVELS...MODEL 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND
SOUNDING TEMPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FT OVER THE S WA AND N OR CASCADES BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO ANTICYCLONIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME LOW LYING SPOTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WED
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT THE TREND DEFINITELY
APPEARS TO BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM JUST A BIT WED AS WEAK SUBSIDE BEGINS TO OCCUR...BUT DAYTIME
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. THEN EXPECT THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR WED NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS POINT...AND WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CREATING NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WE
INCREASED LOW TEMPS JUST A BIT WITH THE LATEST FCST...BUT STILL HAVE
MANY OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEG F. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A LIGHT FROST. ALSO
EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THU MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MODELED TO MOVE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST
ON THU. THIS MAY ALLOW A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
BUILD ALONG THE S OR COAST...WHICH WOULD CREATE A NORTHERLY OR EVEN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR FCST AREA. EXPECT THU TO BE A SUNNY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. PYLE/MH

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...NOT MUCH CHANCE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW.
THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL CALM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT SHALLOW RADIATION FOG TO RESULT IN
SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF KMMV.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...SEAS FLIRTED WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
NEWPORT OREGON THIS EVENING AS BUOY 50 HAD ONE OBSERVATIONS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 9.5 FEET. A NW SWELL BETWEEN 6 AND 8
FEET
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY AND HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
     11 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
833 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...USHERING A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE.  NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BRING THE FIRST DUSTING OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI
RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE
RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TODAY IS NOW
EAST OF THE CASCADES. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER THE
CASCADES WHERE MODERATE OROGRAPHICS IS MAINTAINING RAIN RATES AROUND
0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER HOUR.  INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP SHOW LOWER
CLOUDS OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS ACTIVITY.  THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SHOULD ESCAPE THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AS SOME RAIN SHADOWING IS LIKELY IN THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW BELOW 850 MB.

LOWERING SNOW LEVELS...MODEL 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND
SOUNDING TEMPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FT OVER THE S WA AND N OR CASCADES BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO ANTICYCLONIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME LOW LYING SPOTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WED
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT THE TREND DEFINITELY
APPEARS TO BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM JUST A BIT WED AS WEAK SUBSIDE BEGINS TO OCCUR...BUT DAYTIME
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. THEN EXPECT THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR WED NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS POINT...AND WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CREATING NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WE
INCREASED LOW TEMPS JUST A BIT WITH THE LATEST FCST...BUT STILL HAVE
MANY OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEG F. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A LIGHT FROST. ALSO
EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THU MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MODELED TO MOVE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST
ON THU. THIS MAY ALLOW A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
BUILD ALONG THE S OR COAST...WHICH WOULD CREATE A NORTHERLY OR EVEN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR FCST AREA. EXPECT THU TO BE A SUNNY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. PYLE/MH

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...NOT MUCH CHANCE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW.
THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL CALM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT SHALLOW RADIATION FOG TO RESULT IN
SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF KMMV.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...SEAS FLIRTED WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
NEWPORT OREGON THIS EVENING AS BUOY 50 HAD ONE OBSERVATIONS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 9.5 FEET. A NW SWELL BETWEEN 6 AND 8
FEET
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY AND HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
     11 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 300340
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
833 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...USHERING A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE.  NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY BRING THE FIRST DUSTING OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI
RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE
RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TODAY IS NOW
EAST OF THE CASCADES. MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER THE
CASCADES WHERE MODERATE OROGRAPHICS IS MAINTAINING RAIN RATES AROUND
0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER HOUR.  INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP SHOW LOWER
CLOUDS OVER THE NE PACIFIC THAT WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS ACTIVITY.  THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SHOULD ESCAPE THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AS SOME RAIN SHADOWING IS LIKELY IN THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW BELOW 850 MB.

LOWERING SNOW LEVELS...MODEL 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND
SOUNDING TEMPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FT OVER THE S WA AND N OR CASCADES BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO ANTICYCLONIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME LOW LYING SPOTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WED
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT THE TREND DEFINITELY
APPEARS TO BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM JUST A BIT WED AS WEAK SUBSIDE BEGINS TO OCCUR...BUT DAYTIME
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. THEN EXPECT THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR WED NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS POINT...AND WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CREATING NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WE
INCREASED LOW TEMPS JUST A BIT WITH THE LATEST FCST...BUT STILL HAVE
MANY OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEG F. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A LIGHT FROST. ALSO
EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THU MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MODELED TO MOVE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST
ON THU. THIS MAY ALLOW A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
BUILD ALONG THE S OR COAST...WHICH WOULD CREATE A NORTHERLY OR EVEN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR FCST AREA. EXPECT THU TO BE A SUNNY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. PYLE/MH

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...NOT MUCH CHANCE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW.
THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL CALM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT SHALLOW RADIATION FOG TO RESULT IN
SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF KMMV.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. TJ

&&

.MARINE...SEAS FLIRTED WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
NEWPORT OREGON THIS EVENING AS BUOY 50 HAD ONE OBSERVATIONS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 9.5 FEET. A NW SWELL BETWEEN 6 AND 8
FEET
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY AND HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. TJ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
     11 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300340
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
840 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES AND
STRETCHES FROM BURNS SOUTHWEST THROUGH LAKEVIEW. BOTH COOS AND
DOUGLAS COUNTIES REPORTED MEASURABLE RAIN EARLIER THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY. HAVE UPDATED TO FORECAST TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND EXPAND SHOWERS AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
TONIGHT DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BUT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE FROST/FREEZE RANGE EAST OF THE CASCADES. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE AND ONTO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONTO THE EAST SIDE. MVFR AND IFR
ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH
ISOLATED LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. FURTHER INLAND, IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY, MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD TO BECOME NEAR TOTAL THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING PARTIAL AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ON THE EAST SIDE
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BUT VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. ON TUESDAY MVFR ON
THE WEST SIDE WILL BREAK UP LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 PM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE THERMAL TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST. ON FRIDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN
AS A COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH SOME. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EATS INTO THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT, BUT OTHER
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY DUE TO THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND THE SYSTEM ITSELF LACKING A DEEP
CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT SOME COULD LINGER
IN THE UMPQUA AND THE CASCADES INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE, WITH SOME
OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON LIKELY TO OCCUR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT, THERE ARE MANY LOCATIONS ON
THE EAST SIDE THAT COULD DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY
AS THE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS THAT LOOK
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD FROST OR A FREEZE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TEMPERATURES THAT THE AREAS WILL
DROP TO, BUT FEEL THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
TOO WARM THAN TOO COLD. WITH INCREASING CERTAINTY AND ANOTHER PAIR
OF EYES ON THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE, CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE,
AND THE WATCH CAN THEN BE UPGRADED TO THE NECESSARY FROST AND/OR
FREEZE HEADLINES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF OTHER
THAN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS, DESPITE THEIR
CONTINUING INCONSISTENCIES IN THE LONG TERM, REMAIN FIRMLY
CONVINCED IN THE GENERAL PATTERN: THAT OF A LARGE BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE REGION BEGINNING MIDWEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY COMING TO A CONSENSUS CONCERNING SOME
FEATURES WITHIN THE WESTERLIES UPSTREAM, AND THIS IS LEADING TO
THE INCREASED DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN RUNS. KEEPING THIS IN MIND, A
STRAY SHORTWAVE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH THE
RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AND OFFSHORE FLOW, AND SUCH A LARGE
RIDGE OVERHEAD, A SMALLER WEAKER FEATURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT HEADWAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES AT ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
DURATION. -BPN

AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE AND ONTO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONTO THE EAST SIDE. MVFR AND IFR
ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH
ISOLATED LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. FURTHER INLAND, IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY, MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD TO BECOME NEAR TOTAL THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING PARTIAL AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ON THE EAST SIDE
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BUT VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. ON TUESDAY MVFR ON
THE WEST SIDE WILL BREAK UP LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 3PM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY. THESE NORTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL STEEPEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY A FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN CANADA IS LIKELY TO PUSH THE
OFFSHORE HIGH A BIT FURTHER EAST CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO
DIMINISH SOME BEFORE LIKELY INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11
     AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11
     PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL







000
FXUS65 KBOI 300253
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
853 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...AREA RADARS AND SATIMGS SHOWED A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING THROUGHOUT IDAHO FROM AROUND WARM LAKE
THROUGH EAST OWYHEE COUNTY. HRRR AND TRENDS INDICATE THE ZONE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BANNER SUMMIT BY MIDNIGHT. WHILE IT IS HOLDING
TOGETHER FOR NOW IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE MAGIC
VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OREGON WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND MOSTLY AFTER
9 AM FOR SW IDAHO. WINDS COULD FLIRT WITH ADVY SPEEDS FOR THE
MAGIC VALLEY TUESDAY. TRANSIENT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE
OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING ALONG WITH VERY MOIST SOILS FROM THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF RAIN SO AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY WHERE WINDS DROP OFF TO
LIGHT 5 MPH OR LESS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LOW VFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KMYL TO
KMOU THROUGH 06Z...IMPROVING AFTERWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS BAKER
COUNTY AND SW IDAHO...EXCEPT NUMEROUS SHOWERS KMYL AREA. ISOLATED
MFVR CEILINGS... ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FRONT WILL
REACH KBKE AND KBNO AROUND 12Z THEN KBOI AROUND 15Z AND KTWF
AROUND 17Z. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS FROM KBOI TO KTWF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NW WINDS
ALOFT TO 30 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT HELPED BRING SO MUCH RAIN TO THE REGION THE PAST TWO DAYS
WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE IT/S PLACE AND MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND
CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ON TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING NW WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 MPH IN MOST AREAS...AND 30-40 MPH
IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE COOL...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT TUE NIGHT
AND ADDITIONAL COOL AIR WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE AREA ON CONTINUED
NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WED WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF TUE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER. TUE NIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER LIGHTER
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE WEST COAST WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BEGINNING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE AREA BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY
BUT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 300253
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
853 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...AREA RADARS AND SATIMGS SHOWED A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING THROUGHOUT IDAHO FROM AROUND WARM LAKE
THROUGH EAST OWYHEE COUNTY. HRRR AND TRENDS INDICATE THE ZONE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BANNER SUMMIT BY MIDNIGHT. WHILE IT IS HOLDING
TOGETHER FOR NOW IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE MAGIC
VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OREGON WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND MOSTLY AFTER
9 AM FOR SW IDAHO. WINDS COULD FLIRT WITH ADVY SPEEDS FOR THE
MAGIC VALLEY TUESDAY. TRANSIENT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE
OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING ALONG WITH VERY MOIST SOILS FROM THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF RAIN SO AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY WHERE WINDS DROP OFF TO
LIGHT 5 MPH OR LESS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LOW VFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KMYL TO
KMOU THROUGH 06Z...IMPROVING AFTERWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS BAKER
COUNTY AND SW IDAHO...EXCEPT NUMEROUS SHOWERS KMYL AREA. ISOLATED
MFVR CEILINGS... ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FRONT WILL
REACH KBKE AND KBNO AROUND 12Z THEN KBOI AROUND 15Z AND KTWF
AROUND 17Z. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS FROM KBOI TO KTWF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NW WINDS
ALOFT TO 30 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT HELPED BRING SO MUCH RAIN TO THE REGION THE PAST TWO DAYS
WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE IT/S PLACE AND MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND
CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ON TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING NW WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 MPH IN MOST AREAS...AND 30-40 MPH
IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE COOL...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT TUE NIGHT
AND ADDITIONAL COOL AIR WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE AREA ON CONTINUED
NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WED WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF TUE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER. TUE NIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER LIGHTER
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE WEST COAST WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BEGINNING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE AREA BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY
BUT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/AB



000
FXUS66 KMFR 292337
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
437 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EATS INTO THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT, BUT OTHER
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY DUE TO THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND THE SYSTEM ITSELF LACKING A DEEP
CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT SOME COULD LINGER
IN THE UMPQUA AND THE CASCADES INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE, WITH SOME
OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON LIKELY TO OCCUR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT, THERE ARE MANY LOCATIONS ON
THE EAST SIDE THAT COULD DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY
AS THE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS THAT LOOK
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD FROST OR A FREEZE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TEMPERATURES THAT THE AREAS WILL
DROP TO, BUT FEEL THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
TOO WARM THAN TOO COLD. WITH INCREASING CERTAINTY AND ANOTHER PAIR
OF EYES ON THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE, CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE,
AND THE WATCH CAN THEN BE UPGRADED TO THE NECESSARY FROST AND/OR
FREEZE HEADLINES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF OTHER
THAN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS, DESPITE THEIR
CONTINUING INCONSISTENCIES IN THE LONG TERM, REMAIN FIRMLY
CONVINCED IN THE GENERAL PATTERN: THAT OF A LARGE BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE REGION BEGINNING MIDWEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY COMING TO A CONSENSUS CONCERNING SOME
FEATURES WITHIN THE WESTERLIES UPSTREAM, AND THIS IS LEADING TO
THE INCREASED DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN RUNS. KEEPING THIS IN MIND, A
STRAY SHORTWAVE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH THE
RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AND OFFSHORE FLOW, AND SUCH A LARGE
RIDGE OVERHEAD, A SMALLER WEAKER FEATURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT HEADWAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES AT ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
DURATION. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE AND ONTO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONTO THE EAST SIDE. MVFR AND IFR
ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH
ISOLATED LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. FURTHER INLAND, IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY, MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD TO BECOME NEAR TOTAL THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING PARTIAL AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ON THE EAST SIDE
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BUT VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. ON TUESDAY MVFR ON
THE WEST SIDE WILL BREAK UP LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3PM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY. THESE NORTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL STEEPEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY A FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN CANADA IS LIKELY TO PUSH THE
OFFSHORE HIGH A BIT FURTHER EAST CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO
DIMINISH SOME BEFORE LIKELY INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ029>031.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO
     11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.

$$

BPN/BTL









000
FXUS66 KPQR 292152
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
253 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST PROLIFIC IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING THE FIRST DUSTING
OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS
AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BROUGHT
AROUND 0.1 TO 0.25 INCH OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE COAST AND COAST RANGE
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STEADIER RAIN IS
NOW PUSHING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND EXPECT MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CASCADES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FAST MOVING FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A SHOWERY AND MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS WELL DEFINED CLEARING APPARENT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT FURTHER OFFSHORE THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...THE FCST MODELS ARE DEPICTING DECENT 850MB NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. MODEL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND SOUNDING TEMPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FT OVER THE S WA AND N OR
CASCADES BY TOMORROW MORNING.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO ANTICYCLONIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME LOW LYING SPOTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WED
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT THE TREND DEFINITELY
APPEARS TO BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM JUST A BIT WED AS WEAK SUBSIDE BEGINS TO OCCUR...BUT DAYTIME
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. THEN EXPECT THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR WED NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS POINT...AND WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CREATING NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WE
INCREASED LOW TEMPS JUST A BIT WITH THE LATEST FCST...BUT STILL HAVE
MANY OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEG F. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A LIGHT FROST. ALSO
EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THU MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MODELED TO MOVE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST
ON THU. THIS MAY ALLOW A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
BUILD ALONG THE S OR COAST...WHICH WOULD CREATE A NORTHERLY OR EVEN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR FCST AREA. EXPECT THU TO BE A SUNNY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. PYLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...NOT MUCH CHANCE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW.
THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MVFR VIS AND/OR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS STILL GENERALLY SOUTH
AROUND
10 KT INLAND AND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...I.E. NEWPORT AS FAR AS TAF TERMINALS ARE CONCERNED. EXPECT
DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING MARINE
AIR INLAND WITH LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.
BACK SIDE OF THE CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL CLEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IFR CLOUDS MAY
VERY WELL REMAIN OR FORM SOON THEREAFTER. IN THE END...NOT SURE
THERE WILL BE MUCH IF ANY CLEARING AT THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS AROUND 4000 FT WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 2000 FT. CLEARING SKIES BY AROUND
06Z TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR MVFR INCREASE AFTER 12Z TUE WITH CIGS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 1500 FT IF THEY DEVELOP. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...LATEST OB AT BUOY 89 SHOWS NW WINDS...INDICATING THE
FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH THERE BUT NOT YET TO THE BUOYS CLOSER TO
SHORE WHICH ARE STILL SHOWING SOUTH WINDS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
TREK ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH A MINOR COASTAL JET IN FRONT OF
IT GUSTING TO ABOUT 20 KT NEAR SHORE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 25 KT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE JET
SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. WEST SWELL
INCREASING TODAY TO ABOUT 7 FT WITH PERIOD AROUND 11 TO 13
SECONDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO
BRING IN BIGGER SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
11 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 292152
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
253 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST PROLIFIC IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING THE FIRST DUSTING
OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS
AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BROUGHT
AROUND 0.1 TO 0.25 INCH OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE COAST AND COAST RANGE
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STEADIER RAIN IS
NOW PUSHING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND EXPECT MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CASCADES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FAST MOVING FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A SHOWERY AND MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS WELL DEFINED CLEARING APPARENT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT FURTHER OFFSHORE THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...THE FCST MODELS ARE DEPICTING DECENT 850MB NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. MODEL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND SOUNDING TEMPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FT OVER THE S WA AND N OR
CASCADES BY TOMORROW MORNING.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO ANTICYCLONIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME LOW LYING SPOTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WED
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT THE TREND DEFINITELY
APPEARS TO BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM JUST A BIT WED AS WEAK SUBSIDE BEGINS TO OCCUR...BUT DAYTIME
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. THEN EXPECT THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR WED NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS POINT...AND WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CREATING NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WE
INCREASED LOW TEMPS JUST A BIT WITH THE LATEST FCST...BUT STILL HAVE
MANY OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEG F. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A LIGHT FROST. ALSO
EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THU MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MODELED TO MOVE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST
ON THU. THIS MAY ALLOW A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
BUILD ALONG THE S OR COAST...WHICH WOULD CREATE A NORTHERLY OR EVEN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR FCST AREA. EXPECT THU TO BE A SUNNY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. PYLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...NOT MUCH CHANCE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW.
THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MVFR VIS AND/OR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS STILL GENERALLY SOUTH
AROUND
10 KT INLAND AND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...I.E. NEWPORT AS FAR AS TAF TERMINALS ARE CONCERNED. EXPECT
DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING MARINE
AIR INLAND WITH LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.
BACK SIDE OF THE CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL CLEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IFR CLOUDS MAY
VERY WELL REMAIN OR FORM SOON THEREAFTER. IN THE END...NOT SURE
THERE WILL BE MUCH IF ANY CLEARING AT THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS AROUND 4000 FT WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 2000 FT. CLEARING SKIES BY AROUND
06Z TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR MVFR INCREASE AFTER 12Z TUE WITH CIGS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 1500 FT IF THEY DEVELOP. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...LATEST OB AT BUOY 89 SHOWS NW WINDS...INDICATING THE
FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH THERE BUT NOT YET TO THE BUOYS CLOSER TO
SHORE WHICH ARE STILL SHOWING SOUTH WINDS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
TREK ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH A MINOR COASTAL JET IN FRONT OF
IT GUSTING TO ABOUT 20 KT NEAR SHORE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 25 KT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE JET
SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. WEST SWELL
INCREASING TODAY TO ABOUT 7 FT WITH PERIOD AROUND 11 TO 13
SECONDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO
BRING IN BIGGER SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
11 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 292152
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
253 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST PROLIFIC IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING THE FIRST DUSTING
OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS
AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BROUGHT
AROUND 0.1 TO 0.25 INCH OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE COAST AND COAST RANGE
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STEADIER RAIN IS
NOW PUSHING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND EXPECT MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CASCADES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FAST MOVING FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A SHOWERY AND MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS WELL DEFINED CLEARING APPARENT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT FURTHER OFFSHORE THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...THE FCST MODELS ARE DEPICTING DECENT 850MB NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. MODEL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND SOUNDING TEMPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FT OVER THE S WA AND N OR
CASCADES BY TOMORROW MORNING.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO ANTICYCLONIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME LOW LYING SPOTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WED
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT THE TREND DEFINITELY
APPEARS TO BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM JUST A BIT WED AS WEAK SUBSIDE BEGINS TO OCCUR...BUT DAYTIME
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. THEN EXPECT THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR WED NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS POINT...AND WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CREATING NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WE
INCREASED LOW TEMPS JUST A BIT WITH THE LATEST FCST...BUT STILL HAVE
MANY OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEG F. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A LIGHT FROST. ALSO
EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THU MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MODELED TO MOVE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST
ON THU. THIS MAY ALLOW A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
BUILD ALONG THE S OR COAST...WHICH WOULD CREATE A NORTHERLY OR EVEN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR FCST AREA. EXPECT THU TO BE A SUNNY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. PYLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...NOT MUCH CHANCE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW.
THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MVFR VIS AND/OR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS STILL GENERALLY SOUTH
AROUND
10 KT INLAND AND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...I.E. NEWPORT AS FAR AS TAF TERMINALS ARE CONCERNED. EXPECT
DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING MARINE
AIR INLAND WITH LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.
BACK SIDE OF THE CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL CLEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IFR CLOUDS MAY
VERY WELL REMAIN OR FORM SOON THEREAFTER. IN THE END...NOT SURE
THERE WILL BE MUCH IF ANY CLEARING AT THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS AROUND 4000 FT WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 2000 FT. CLEARING SKIES BY AROUND
06Z TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR MVFR INCREASE AFTER 12Z TUE WITH CIGS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 1500 FT IF THEY DEVELOP. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...LATEST OB AT BUOY 89 SHOWS NW WINDS...INDICATING THE
FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH THERE BUT NOT YET TO THE BUOYS CLOSER TO
SHORE WHICH ARE STILL SHOWING SOUTH WINDS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
TREK ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH A MINOR COASTAL JET IN FRONT OF
IT GUSTING TO ABOUT 20 KT NEAR SHORE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 25 KT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE JET
SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. WEST SWELL
INCREASING TODAY TO ABOUT 7 FT WITH PERIOD AROUND 11 TO 13
SECONDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO
BRING IN BIGGER SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
11 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KPQR 292152
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
253 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A BAND OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST PROLIFIC IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING THE FIRST DUSTING
OF SNOW TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SKI RESORT ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE AUTUMN WITH CHILLY NIGHTS
AND CRISP AFTERNOONS...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY. THE BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BROUGHT
AROUND 0.1 TO 0.25 INCH OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE COAST AND COAST RANGE
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STEADIER RAIN IS
NOW PUSHING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND EXPECT MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO PICK UP ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CASCADES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FAST MOVING FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A SHOWERY AND MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS WELL DEFINED CLEARING APPARENT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT FURTHER OFFSHORE THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...THE FCST MODELS ARE DEPICTING DECENT 850MB NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. MODEL 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES AND SOUNDING TEMPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FT OVER THE S WA AND N OR
CASCADES BY TOMORROW MORNING.

EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVES TO OUR NORTH AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO ANTICYCLONIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR SOME LOW LYING SPOTS WITH THE FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WED
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT THE TREND DEFINITELY
APPEARS TO BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM JUST A BIT WED AS WEAK SUBSIDE BEGINS TO OCCUR...BUT DAYTIME
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE. THEN EXPECT THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR WED NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS POINT...AND WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CREATING NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WE
INCREASED LOW TEMPS JUST A BIT WITH THE LATEST FCST...BUT STILL HAVE
MANY OUTLYING VALLEY LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEG F. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE A LIGHT FROST. ALSO
EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THU MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MODELED TO MOVE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST
ON THU. THIS MAY ALLOW A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
BUILD ALONG THE S OR COAST...WHICH WOULD CREATE A NORTHERLY OR EVEN
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR FCST AREA. EXPECT THU TO BE A SUNNY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. PYLE

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...NOT MUCH CHANCE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FCST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE PAC NW.
THIS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO BRUSH THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MVFR VIS AND/OR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS STILL GENERALLY SOUTH
AROUND
10 KT INLAND AND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...I.E. NEWPORT AS FAR AS TAF TERMINALS ARE CONCERNED. EXPECT
DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING MARINE
AIR INLAND WITH LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.
BACK SIDE OF THE CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL CLEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IFR CLOUDS MAY
VERY WELL REMAIN OR FORM SOON THEREAFTER. IN THE END...NOT SURE
THERE WILL BE MUCH IF ANY CLEARING AT THE COAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS AROUND 4000 FT WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 2000 FT. CLEARING SKIES BY AROUND
06Z TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR MVFR INCREASE AFTER 12Z TUE WITH CIGS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 1500 FT IF THEY DEVELOP. BOWEN

&&

.MARINE...LATEST OB AT BUOY 89 SHOWS NW WINDS...INDICATING THE
FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH THERE BUT NOT YET TO THE BUOYS CLOSER TO
SHORE WHICH ARE STILL SHOWING SOUTH WINDS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
TREK ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH A MINOR COASTAL JET IN FRONT OF
IT GUSTING TO ABOUT 20 KT NEAR SHORE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 25 KT. HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE JET
SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. WEST SWELL
INCREASING TODAY TO ABOUT 7 FT WITH PERIOD AROUND 11 TO 13
SECONDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO
BRING IN BIGGER SWELL EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. BOWEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM TO
11 PM PDT TUESDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&




000
FXUS66 KMFR 292136
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
236 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EATS INTO THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT, BUT OTHER
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY DUE TO THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND THE SYSTEM ITSELF LACKING A DEEP
CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT SOME COULD LINGER
IN THE UMPQUA AND THE CASCADES INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE, WITH SOME
OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON LIKELY TO OCCUR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT, THERE ARE MANY LOCATIONS ON
THE EAST SIDE THAT COULD DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY
AS THE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS THAT LOOK
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD FROST OR A FREEZE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TEMPERATURES THAT THE AREAS WILL
DROP TO, BUT FEEL THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
TOO WARM THAN TOO COLD. WITH INCREASING CERTAINTY AND ANOTHER PAIR
OF EYES ON THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE, CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE,
AND THE WATCH CAN THEN BE UPGRADED TO THE NECESSARY FROST AND/OR
FREEZE HEADLINES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF OTHER
THAN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS, DESPITE THEIR
CONTINUING INCONSISTENCIES IN THE LONG TERM, REMAIN FIRMLY
CONVINCED IN THE GENERAL PATTERN: THAT OF A LARGE BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE REGION BEGINNING MIDWEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY COMING TO A CONSENSUS CONCERNING SOME
FEATURES WITHIN THE WESTERLIES UPSTREAM, AND THIS IS LEADING TO
THE INCREASED DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN RUNS. KEEPING THIS IN MIND, A
STRAY SHORTWAVE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH THE
RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AND OFFSHORE FLOW, AND SUCH A LARGE
RIDGE OVERHEAD, A SMALLER WEAKER FEATURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT HEADWAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES AT ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
DURATION. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE
WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED. THOSE AREAS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. -JRS


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 AM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA
BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE AREA.
BOTH FEATURES WILL WEAKEN AFTER WEDNESDAY...SO WINDS AND SEAS WILL
MODERATE THEN. -JRS

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ029>031.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO
     11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.

$$

BPN/JRS/BTL






000
FXUS66 KMFR 292136
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
236 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EATS INTO THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT, BUT OTHER
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY DUE TO THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH, AND THE SYSTEM ITSELF LACKING A DEEP
CONNECTION TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT SOME COULD LINGER
IN THE UMPQUA AND THE CASCADES INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE, WITH SOME
OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON LIKELY TO OCCUR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT, THERE ARE MANY LOCATIONS ON
THE EAST SIDE THAT COULD DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY
AS THE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS THAT LOOK
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD FROST OR A FREEZE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TEMPERATURES THAT THE AREAS WILL
DROP TO, BUT FEEL THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
TOO WARM THAN TOO COLD. WITH INCREASING CERTAINTY AND ANOTHER PAIR
OF EYES ON THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE, CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE,
AND THE WATCH CAN THEN BE UPGRADED TO THE NECESSARY FROST AND/OR
FREEZE HEADLINES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF OTHER
THAN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS, DESPITE THEIR
CONTINUING INCONSISTENCIES IN THE LONG TERM, REMAIN FIRMLY
CONVINCED IN THE GENERAL PATTERN: THAT OF A LARGE BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE REGION BEGINNING MIDWEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY COMING TO A CONSENSUS CONCERNING SOME
FEATURES WITHIN THE WESTERLIES UPSTREAM, AND THIS IS LEADING TO
THE INCREASED DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN RUNS. KEEPING THIS IN MIND, A
STRAY SHORTWAVE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH THE
RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AND OFFSHORE FLOW, AND SUCH A LARGE
RIDGE OVERHEAD, A SMALLER WEAKER FEATURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT HEADWAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AND KEPT
TEMPERATURES AT ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
DURATION. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE
WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN TONIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED. THOSE AREAS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. -JRS


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 AM PDT MON 29 SEP 2014...A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA
BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE AREA.
BOTH FEATURES WILL WEAKEN AFTER WEDNESDAY...SO WINDS AND SEAS WILL
MODERATE THEN. -JRS

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ029>031.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ082-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO
     11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO
     11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.

$$

BPN/JRS/BTL







000
FXUS66 KPDT 292130
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT LOOKS RATHER
NARROW ON SATELLITE. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES
AND BLUES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BECOMING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OFFSHORE WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY AND MAINLY CLEAR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS...WITH NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE 20S. HAVE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS FOR NOW.  94

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE AREA FAIR AND
DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL CRASH INTO THE
RIDGE AND COME ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON. MOST OF
THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. IT WILL ALSO
DRIVE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER OUR AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL HANG UP ON CASCADES AND DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY BUT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE RIDGE BACK
OFF SHORE WITH US ON THE EASTERN EDGE. BOTH KEEP A STREAM OF
MOISTURE IN A WESTERLY FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST AND HAVE
COMPROMISED ON TEMPERATURES BY LOWERING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY
TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES AS A
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALW AND PERHAPS KPDT FROM 02Z-09Z THIS
EVENING. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR TOMORROW MORNING AFTER 12Z BUT
WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 18Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REACH 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN 5 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT. KDLS
AND KPDT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS TOMORROW AFTER 18Z WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  66  41  67 /  20  10  10   0
ALW  53  67  44  67 /  20  10  10   0
PSC  49  72  41  70 /  20  10   0   0
YKM  43  67  37  67 /  20  10   0   0
HRI  50  70  39  69 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  48  64  41  65 /  20  10   0   0
RDM  37  62  29  65 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  45  60  37  63 /  30  20  10   0
GCD  41  60  31  65 /  30  10  10   0
DLS  54  68  45  69 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/83/83






000
FXUS65 KBOI 292044
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT HELPED BRING SO MUCH RAIN TO THE REGION THE PAST TWO DAYS
WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE IT/S PLACE AND MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND
CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ON TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING NW WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 MPH IN MOST AREAS...AND 30-40 MPH
IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE COOL...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT TUE NIGHT
AND ADDITIONAL COOL AIR WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE AREA ON CONTINUED
NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WED WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF TUE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT OWING TO
STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER. TUE NIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER LIGHTER
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE WEST COAST WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BEGINNING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE AREA BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY
BUT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LOW VFR CEILINGS AND ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS
WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SE
OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE REMAINING AREAS OF SW IDAHO BY 00Z. EXPECT LOW-
VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE SHOWERS. WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CEILINGS ACROSS SE OREGON AFTER 00Z AND SW IDAHO BY 09Z. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
SHELTERED VALLEYS. FRONT WILL REACH KBKE AND KBNO AROUND 12Z THEN
KBOI AROUND 15Z AND KTWF AROUND 17Z. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS FROM KBOI TO KTWF THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WITH SPEEDS TO 15 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NW WINDS ALOFT TO 30 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/AB
AVIATION.....JS




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