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000
FXUS66 KMFR 202233
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
333 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN STATES INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
RIDGE, AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY
WERE THIS MORNING. THE WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO BE VERY
ACTIVE FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND NOON ON
MONDAY AND APPROACH ROSEBURG AND CAVE JUNCTION BY THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...GUSTS TO 35 MPH EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE FRONT WILL SPREAD EAST IN THE EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND THAT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AS
A RESULT, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND QPF HAVE BEEN
INCREASED. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT IN LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE. THE SNOW LEVEL NEAR 7000
FEET IS FORECAST TO FALL TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON THE WEST SIDE AND
IN THE CASCADES AND AROUND 5000 FEET ON THE EAST SIDE. THUS, THOSE
DRIVING OVER THE CASCADE, SISKIYOU, AND EAST SIDE PASSES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW,
UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES.

THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND ON TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA BUT ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...NEAR THE COOS COAST IN THE
MORNING THEN SHIFTING ACROSS THE CRATER LAKE AREA TO NEARLY ALL OF
THE EAST SIDE IN THE AFTERNOON.

A SECOND, COLDER LOBE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OFFSHORE FROM
WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY THEN MOVE INTO WASHINGTON WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH AND REACH THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE RESULT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH SHOWERS FOCUSED IN
WESTERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSON COUNTY.

A WARM FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY AND COULD BE RAISED FURTHER DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND. THIS FRONT WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES
IN SOUTHWEST OREGON...STILL MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSON
COUNTY. BUT, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW AND REACH THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUING
THE SAME THEME, THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW-MOVING WITH MOST OF THE
RAIN WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSON COUNTY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME
ANOTHER NOTCH MORE ACTIVE. THIS IS GOOD NEWS BECAUSE SOME AREAS
COULD DELAY USING IRRIGATION. HOWEVER...THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
DO LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE THE LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION. TIMING THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE
DIFFICULT AS THE COMPUTER MODELS OFTEN HAVE THEIR LARGEST ERRORS
IN THE SPRING SEASON DURING AN ACTIVE PATTERN.

THERE MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD BE
A WET AND BREEZY SYSTEM WITH A DEEP LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH
LOWER SNOW LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BUT THIS IS WHEN THE MODELS REALLY BEGIN
TO DEPART IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FROSTY CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS COULD BE SATURDAY MORNING.
SANDLER


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUD AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM ON MONDAY MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO MONDAY MORNING.
-SANDLER


&&

.MARINE...WEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY STABLIZE AT AROUND 10 FEET ON MONDAY. VARIOUS
SWELL TRAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH KEEPING SEAS AT AROUND 10 FEET
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS (15-20 KT) BEHIND IT INTO MONDAY
EVENING. A STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL BRING
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO ALL WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION, SO WILL PROBABLY NEED TO
HOIST A GALE WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL CYCLES IF THIS
TREND HOLDS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK QUIET, BUT ANOTHER MODERATELY
STRONG FRONT IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AND PERHAPS ANOTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/RES/TRW







000
FXUS66 KMFR 202233
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
333 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN STATES INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
RIDGE, AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY
WERE THIS MORNING. THE WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO BE VERY
ACTIVE FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND NOON ON
MONDAY AND APPROACH ROSEBURG AND CAVE JUNCTION BY THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...GUSTS TO 35 MPH EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE FRONT WILL SPREAD EAST IN THE EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND THAT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AS
A RESULT, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND QPF HAVE BEEN
INCREASED. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT IN LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE. THE SNOW LEVEL NEAR 7000
FEET IS FORECAST TO FALL TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON THE WEST SIDE AND
IN THE CASCADES AND AROUND 5000 FEET ON THE EAST SIDE. THUS, THOSE
DRIVING OVER THE CASCADE, SISKIYOU, AND EAST SIDE PASSES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW,
UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES.

THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND ON TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA BUT ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...NEAR THE COOS COAST IN THE
MORNING THEN SHIFTING ACROSS THE CRATER LAKE AREA TO NEARLY ALL OF
THE EAST SIDE IN THE AFTERNOON.

A SECOND, COLDER LOBE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OFFSHORE FROM
WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY THEN MOVE INTO WASHINGTON WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH AND REACH THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE RESULT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH SHOWERS FOCUSED IN
WESTERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSON COUNTY.

A WARM FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY AND COULD BE RAISED FURTHER DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND. THIS FRONT WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES
IN SOUTHWEST OREGON...STILL MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSON
COUNTY. BUT, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW AND REACH THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUING
THE SAME THEME, THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW-MOVING WITH MOST OF THE
RAIN WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSON COUNTY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME
ANOTHER NOTCH MORE ACTIVE. THIS IS GOOD NEWS BECAUSE SOME AREAS
COULD DELAY USING IRRIGATION. HOWEVER...THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
DO LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE THE LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION. TIMING THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE
DIFFICULT AS THE COMPUTER MODELS OFTEN HAVE THEIR LARGEST ERRORS
IN THE SPRING SEASON DURING AN ACTIVE PATTERN.

THERE MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD BE
A WET AND BREEZY SYSTEM WITH A DEEP LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH
LOWER SNOW LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BUT THIS IS WHEN THE MODELS REALLY BEGIN
TO DEPART IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FROSTY CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS COULD BE SATURDAY MORNING.
SANDLER


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUD AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM ON MONDAY MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO MONDAY MORNING.
-SANDLER


&&

.MARINE...WEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY STABLIZE AT AROUND 10 FEET ON MONDAY. VARIOUS
SWELL TRAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH KEEPING SEAS AT AROUND 10 FEET
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS (15-20 KT) BEHIND IT INTO MONDAY
EVENING. A STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL BRING
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO ALL WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION, SO WILL PROBABLY NEED TO
HOIST A GALE WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL CYCLES IF THIS
TREND HOLDS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK QUIET, BUT ANOTHER MODERATELY
STRONG FRONT IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AND PERHAPS ANOTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/RES/TRW







000
FXUS66 KMFR 202233
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
333 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN STATES INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
RIDGE, AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY
WERE THIS MORNING. THE WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO BE VERY
ACTIVE FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND NOON ON
MONDAY AND APPROACH ROSEBURG AND CAVE JUNCTION BY THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...GUSTS TO 35 MPH EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE FRONT WILL SPREAD EAST IN THE EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND THAT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AS
A RESULT, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND QPF HAVE BEEN
INCREASED. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT IN LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE. THE SNOW LEVEL NEAR 7000
FEET IS FORECAST TO FALL TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON THE WEST SIDE AND
IN THE CASCADES AND AROUND 5000 FEET ON THE EAST SIDE. THUS, THOSE
DRIVING OVER THE CASCADE, SISKIYOU, AND EAST SIDE PASSES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW,
UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES.

THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND ON TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA BUT ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...NEAR THE COOS COAST IN THE
MORNING THEN SHIFTING ACROSS THE CRATER LAKE AREA TO NEARLY ALL OF
THE EAST SIDE IN THE AFTERNOON.

A SECOND, COLDER LOBE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OFFSHORE FROM
WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY THEN MOVE INTO WASHINGTON WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH AND REACH THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE RESULT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH SHOWERS FOCUSED IN
WESTERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSON COUNTY.

A WARM FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY AND COULD BE RAISED FURTHER DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND. THIS FRONT WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES
IN SOUTHWEST OREGON...STILL MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSON
COUNTY. BUT, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW AND REACH THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUING
THE SAME THEME, THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW-MOVING WITH MOST OF THE
RAIN WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSON COUNTY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME
ANOTHER NOTCH MORE ACTIVE. THIS IS GOOD NEWS BECAUSE SOME AREAS
COULD DELAY USING IRRIGATION. HOWEVER...THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
DO LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE THE LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION. TIMING THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE
DIFFICULT AS THE COMPUTER MODELS OFTEN HAVE THEIR LARGEST ERRORS
IN THE SPRING SEASON DURING AN ACTIVE PATTERN.

THERE MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD BE
A WET AND BREEZY SYSTEM WITH A DEEP LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH
LOWER SNOW LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BUT THIS IS WHEN THE MODELS REALLY BEGIN
TO DEPART IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FROSTY CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS COULD BE SATURDAY MORNING.
SANDLER


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUD AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM ON MONDAY MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO MONDAY MORNING.
-SANDLER


&&

.MARINE...WEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY STABLIZE AT AROUND 10 FEET ON MONDAY. VARIOUS
SWELL TRAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH KEEPING SEAS AT AROUND 10 FEET
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS (15-20 KT) BEHIND IT INTO MONDAY
EVENING. A STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL BRING
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO ALL WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION, SO WILL PROBABLY NEED TO
HOIST A GALE WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL CYCLES IF THIS
TREND HOLDS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK QUIET, BUT ANOTHER MODERATELY
STRONG FRONT IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AND PERHAPS ANOTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/RES/TRW







000
FXUS66 KMFR 202233
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
333 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN STATES INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
RIDGE, AN INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY
WERE THIS MORNING. THE WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO BE VERY
ACTIVE FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND NOON ON
MONDAY AND APPROACH ROSEBURG AND CAVE JUNCTION BY THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...GUSTS TO 35 MPH EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE FRONT WILL SPREAD EAST IN THE EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND THAT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AS
A RESULT, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND QPF HAVE BEEN
INCREASED. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT IN LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE. THE SNOW LEVEL NEAR 7000
FEET IS FORECAST TO FALL TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET ON THE WEST SIDE AND
IN THE CASCADES AND AROUND 5000 FEET ON THE EAST SIDE. THUS, THOSE
DRIVING OVER THE CASCADE, SISKIYOU, AND EAST SIDE PASSES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW,
UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES.

THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING INLAND ON TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA BUT ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...NEAR THE COOS COAST IN THE
MORNING THEN SHIFTING ACROSS THE CRATER LAKE AREA TO NEARLY ALL OF
THE EAST SIDE IN THE AFTERNOON.

A SECOND, COLDER LOBE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OFFSHORE FROM
WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY THEN MOVE INTO WASHINGTON WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH AND REACH THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE RESULT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH SHOWERS FOCUSED IN
WESTERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSON COUNTY.

A WARM FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY AND COULD BE RAISED FURTHER DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND. THIS FRONT WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES
IN SOUTHWEST OREGON...STILL MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSON
COUNTY. BUT, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW AND REACH THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUING
THE SAME THEME, THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW-MOVING WITH MOST OF THE
RAIN WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSON COUNTY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME
ANOTHER NOTCH MORE ACTIVE. THIS IS GOOD NEWS BECAUSE SOME AREAS
COULD DELAY USING IRRIGATION. HOWEVER...THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
DO LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE THE LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION. TIMING THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE
DIFFICULT AS THE COMPUTER MODELS OFTEN HAVE THEIR LARGEST ERRORS
IN THE SPRING SEASON DURING AN ACTIVE PATTERN.

THERE MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD BE
A WET AND BREEZY SYSTEM WITH A DEEP LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH
LOWER SNOW LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BUT THIS IS WHEN THE MODELS REALLY BEGIN
TO DEPART IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FROSTY CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND VALLEYS COULD BE SATURDAY MORNING.
SANDLER


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW CLOUD AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM ON MONDAY MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO MONDAY MORNING.
-SANDLER


&&

.MARINE...WEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY STABLIZE AT AROUND 10 FEET ON MONDAY. VARIOUS
SWELL TRAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH KEEPING SEAS AT AROUND 10 FEET
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS (15-20 KT) BEHIND IT INTO MONDAY
EVENING. A STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL BRING
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO ALL WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION, SO WILL PROBABLY NEED TO
HOIST A GALE WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL CYCLES IF THIS
TREND HOLDS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK QUIET, BUT ANOTHER MODERATELY
STRONG FRONT IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AND PERHAPS ANOTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/RES/TRW






  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPDT 202131
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE TWO STATE AREA TOMORROW WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT FIRST SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WA/OR CASCADES AND THEN MIGRATE INTO THE BASIN
AND BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
WITH DECREASING RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALSO PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS
THE AREA AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND AND USHERS IN
A WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUING ON THURSDAY. I INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR DAYTIME
PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM DAYBREAK TO SUNDOWN OF 0.05-0.10 INCH. THURSDAY NIGHT A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TO THE CASCADE
CRESTS AND THEN NUDGES THE FRONT INTO FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT EASES INTO IDAHO
AND WESTERN MONTANA WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH TAKES
ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS INLAND OVER THE REGION. THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THUS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE OROGRAPHIC
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION WITH AN UPSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH. KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY BY VIRTUE OF THE TROUGH REMAINING
OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
MID/UPPER SHORT WAVES HOT ON ITS HEALS MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  POLAN


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLOUDY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT BECOMING
SCT TO BKN AOA 8000-10000 FT AGL BY AROUND DAYBREAK ON MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
POLAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  43  67  43  54 /   0  10  70  60
ALW  46  68  46  55 /   0  10  60  60
PSC  43  72  48  60 /   0  10  60  50
YKM  39  67  40  57 /   0  10  60  50
HRI  41  70  45  58 /   0  10  60  50
ELN  38  66  39  55 /   0  20  60  50
RDM  36  64  34  47 /   0  20  70  60
LGD  37  67  38  47 /   0  10  60  60
GCD  35  65  35  42 /   0  10  70  60
DLS  45  68  46  55 /   0  20  70  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/99








000
FXUS66 KPDT 202131
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE TWO STATE AREA TOMORROW WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT FIRST SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WA/OR CASCADES AND THEN MIGRATE INTO THE BASIN
AND BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
WITH DECREASING RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TWO STATE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALSO PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS
THE AREA AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND AND USHERS IN
A WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUING ON THURSDAY. I INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR DAYTIME
PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM DAYBREAK TO SUNDOWN OF 0.05-0.10 INCH. THURSDAY NIGHT A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TO THE CASCADE
CRESTS AND THEN NUDGES THE FRONT INTO FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT EASES INTO IDAHO
AND WESTERN MONTANA WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH TAKES
ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS INLAND OVER THE REGION. THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THUS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE OROGRAPHIC
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION WITH AN UPSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH. KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY BY VIRTUE OF THE TROUGH REMAINING
OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER
MID/UPPER SHORT WAVES HOT ON ITS HEALS MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  POLAN


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLOUDY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT BECOMING
SCT TO BKN AOA 8000-10000 FT AGL BY AROUND DAYBREAK ON MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
POLAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  43  67  43  54 /   0  10  70  60
ALW  46  68  46  55 /   0  10  60  60
PSC  43  72  48  60 /   0  10  60  50
YKM  39  67  40  57 /   0  10  60  50
HRI  41  70  45  58 /   0  10  60  50
ELN  38  66  39  55 /   0  20  60  50
RDM  36  64  34  47 /   0  20  70  60
LGD  37  67  38  47 /   0  10  60  60
GCD  35  65  35  42 /   0  10  70  60
DLS  45  68  46  55 /   0  20  70  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/99








  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 202125
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
222 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MON AND MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AT OR BELOW
PASS LEVEL. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS GOING WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...READINGS GETTING INTO THE
60S WITH A MIX OF SUN AND INCREASED HIGH CLOUDINESS UNDER SOMEWHAT
FLAT TO SLIGHTLY SW FLOW ALOFT THAT IS CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY. EXPECT
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S. THE CLOUDS ARE COURTESY OF OUR NEXT MAIN
WEATHER MAKER THAT WILL TAKE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO A PERIOD OF
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

THE FEATURE TO THANK IS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW IS PUSHING NORTH INTO B.C.
AND WE ARE GETTING THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS. THE UPPER JET WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LOW TONIGHT AND PUSH THE WHOLE TROUGH
AXIS CLOSER TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY NEARS
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT. CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE COAST IN THE
MORNING...WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTH ON THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE HAVE THE MODELS KICKING
OUT SOME SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING BUT ARE MORE
CONSISTENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MIXED WITH REGARDS
TO THUNDER POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
TO NO CAPE AND THE GFS SHOWING A BIT MORE...BUT NEITHER IS VERY
IMPRESSIVE.

THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSH ONSHORE IN THE EVENING WHILE THE
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST PUSH OF MORE ORGANIZED RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER
TO THE PASSES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THEN THE FIRST TROUGH AXIS AND
RELATED COLD POOL SHIFTS INLAND TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS COULD BE DAY TO
SEE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWERS AND TOWERING CUMULUS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED THUNDER. HAVE ADDED SOME THUNDER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
CLOSER TO MORE ORGANIZED FORCING. AN ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE THAT
THIS AREA COULD BE EXPANDED..AND WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS SEE IF
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IMPROVE A LITTLE. WITH 850 TEMPS BELOW
ZERO...LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEN THE MAIN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MOVES INLAND THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER ORGANIZED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED EVEN AT PASS LEVEL...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE PASSES HAVE BEEN
BARE FOR A WHILE NOW SO CAUTION IS URGED FOR THOSE TRAVELING THE
PASSES.

OH BUT THE FUN IS NOT OVER YET. AFTER BRIEF RIDGING...ANOTHER TROUGH
IS ON THIS ONES HEELS AND READY TO TAKE OVER. THE ACTION BEGINS WITH
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET
DAY WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN EVEN IN THE CASCADES. /KMD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
GOOD THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
DAY ON THU. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND
LATER THU AND FRI AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
PAC NW. WE MAY ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME AS THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO MOVE
ONSHORE SOMETIME LATER SAT OR SUN...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND
OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS.
THE LOWER AROUND 4000 FT WITH A CIRRUS LAYER ABOVE. A FRONT
OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BUT EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON MORNING. HOWEVER...FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND MON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 14 TO 17 FT RANGE THIS EVENING
THEN NEAR 12 FT MON MORNING THEN HOVERING NEAR 10 FT FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK. THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WIND OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS . OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WED OR THU...LIKELY BRINGING
SMALL CRAFT WINDS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
     UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 202125
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
222 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MON AND MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AT OR BELOW
PASS LEVEL. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS GOING WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...READINGS GETTING INTO THE
60S WITH A MIX OF SUN AND INCREASED HIGH CLOUDINESS UNDER SOMEWHAT
FLAT TO SLIGHTLY SW FLOW ALOFT THAT IS CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY. EXPECT
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S. THE CLOUDS ARE COURTESY OF OUR NEXT MAIN
WEATHER MAKER THAT WILL TAKE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO A PERIOD OF
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

THE FEATURE TO THANK IS A DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW IS PUSHING NORTH INTO B.C.
AND WE ARE GETTING THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS. THE UPPER JET WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LOW TONIGHT AND PUSH THE WHOLE TROUGH
AXIS CLOSER TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY NEARS
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT. CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE COAST IN THE
MORNING...WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTH ON THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE HAVE THE MODELS KICKING
OUT SOME SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING BUT ARE MORE
CONSISTENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MIXED WITH REGARDS
TO THUNDER POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
TO NO CAPE AND THE GFS SHOWING A BIT MORE...BUT NEITHER IS VERY
IMPRESSIVE.

THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSH ONSHORE IN THE EVENING WHILE THE
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST PUSH OF MORE ORGANIZED RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER
TO THE PASSES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THEN THE FIRST TROUGH AXIS AND
RELATED COLD POOL SHIFTS INLAND TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS COULD BE DAY TO
SEE QUITE A BIT OF SHOWERS AND TOWERING CUMULUS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED THUNDER. HAVE ADDED SOME THUNDER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
CLOSER TO MORE ORGANIZED FORCING. AN ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE THAT
THIS AREA COULD BE EXPANDED..AND WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS SEE IF
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IMPROVE A LITTLE. WITH 850 TEMPS BELOW
ZERO...LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S. THEN THE MAIN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MOVES INLAND THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER ORGANIZED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED EVEN AT PASS LEVEL...ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE PASSES HAVE BEEN
BARE FOR A WHILE NOW SO CAUTION IS URGED FOR THOSE TRAVELING THE
PASSES.

OH BUT THE FUN IS NOT OVER YET. AFTER BRIEF RIDGING...ANOTHER TROUGH
IS ON THIS ONES HEELS AND READY TO TAKE OVER. THE ACTION BEGINS WITH
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET
DAY WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN EVEN IN THE CASCADES. /KMD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK CLOUDY...COOL...AND WET. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
GOOD THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
DAY ON THU. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND
LATER THU AND FRI AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
PAC NW. WE MAY ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME AS THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO MOVE
ONSHORE SOMETIME LATER SAT OR SUN...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND
OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS.
THE LOWER AROUND 4000 FT WITH A CIRRUS LAYER ABOVE. A FRONT
OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BUT EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON MORNING. HOWEVER...FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND MON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 14 TO 17 FT RANGE THIS EVENING
THEN NEAR 12 FT MON MORNING THEN HOVERING NEAR 10 FT FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK. THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WIND OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS . OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WED OR THU...LIKELY BRINGING
SMALL CRAFT WINDS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
     UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 202047
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
247 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT ANY INSTABILITY
MONDAY AFTERNOON SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE TROUGH
MOVES INLAND TUESDAY MORNING AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP FROM 8000-9000 FEET
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO 4500-5500 FEET MSL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE UP TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY
WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BULK OF THE FORECAST FOR
MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS. FIRST OF TWO DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL EXIT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE RESULTING
IN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST
IDAHO. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COLDER WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL BOTTOM OUT AT AROUND 3000 FEET. MODELS DEPICT A SHORT-WAVE
UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH...SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT DEEP UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 10-
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM KMUO TO KJER/KTWF WILL DIMINISH
BY 02Z. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT W-NW LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. W-NW WINDS ALOFT TO
20 KNOTS UP TO 10K FEET MSL...SHIFTING TO THE SW AFTER 06Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....BW/DD
AVIATION.....BW




000
FXUS66 KPDT 201719 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1019 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE BASIN AND THE
PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLOUDY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT BECOMING
SCT TO BKN AOA 8000-10000 FT AGL BY AROUND DAYBREAK ON MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
POLAN

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 248 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS ARE DECREASING THIS
MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN BEHIND A DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM. IN ADDITION SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
THIN CLOUDS OVER WALLOWA COUNTY AND SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON. THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOLER SIDE TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS QUIET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
CWA WILL BE ON MONDAY...FIRST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL PUMP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND RIDE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS HAVING LIKELY POPS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A CLAP OF THUNDER UNDER THIS KIND OF A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
OREGON. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL OREGON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY DUE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THAT WEATHER SYSTEM. 88

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3500 FEET. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY IN THE EVENING BEFORE TAPING OFF OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO IDAHO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OFFSHORE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE RIDGE RAPIDLY THROUGH OUR AREA AND OFF
TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY MOIST AND
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET SO
MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS SYSTEM A
TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HANDLE THE TROUGH
DIFFERENTLY THOUGH ALL KEEP IT OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY SO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
SATURDAY EVENING, THE GFS DEEPENS THE TROUGH SOUTHWARD WITH MOST OF
ITS ENERGY GOING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
FOR NOW UNTIL THE SITUATION COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  66  45  54 /   0  10  70  60
ALW  46  67  48  55 /   0  10  60  60
PSC  43  71  50  60 /   0  10  60  50
YKM  40  66  42  56 /   0  20  60  50
HRI  41  69  47  58 /   0  10  60  50
ELN  39  65  41  54 /   0  20  60  50
RDM  35  63  36  47 /   0  10  60  60
LGD  38  66  40  47 /   0  10  60  60
GCD  35  64  37  42 /   0  10  70  60
DLS  45  66  48  55 /   0  20  70  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/88/83






000
FXUS66 KPDT 201719 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1019 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE BASIN AND THE
PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MOSTLY CLOUDY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT BECOMING
SCT TO BKN AOA 8000-10000 FT AGL BY AROUND DAYBREAK ON MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
POLAN

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 248 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS ARE DECREASING THIS
MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN BEHIND A DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM. IN ADDITION SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
THIN CLOUDS OVER WALLOWA COUNTY AND SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON. THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOLER SIDE TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS QUIET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
CWA WILL BE ON MONDAY...FIRST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL PUMP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND RIDE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS HAVING LIKELY POPS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A CLAP OF THUNDER UNDER THIS KIND OF A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
OREGON. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL OREGON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY DUE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THAT WEATHER SYSTEM. 88

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3500 FEET. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY IN THE EVENING BEFORE TAPING OFF OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO IDAHO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OFFSHORE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE RIDGE RAPIDLY THROUGH OUR AREA AND OFF
TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY MOIST AND
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET SO
MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS SYSTEM A
TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HANDLE THE TROUGH
DIFFERENTLY THOUGH ALL KEEP IT OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY SO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
SATURDAY EVENING, THE GFS DEEPENS THE TROUGH SOUTHWARD WITH MOST OF
ITS ENERGY GOING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
FOR NOW UNTIL THE SITUATION COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  66  45  54 /   0  10  70  60
ALW  46  67  48  55 /   0  10  60  60
PSC  43  71  50  60 /   0  10  60  50
YKM  40  66  42  56 /   0  20  60  50
HRI  41  69  47  58 /   0  10  60  50
ELN  39  65  41  54 /   0  20  60  50
RDM  35  63  36  47 /   0  10  60  60
LGD  38  66  40  47 /   0  10  60  60
GCD  35  64  37  42 /   0  10  70  60
DLS  45  66  48  55 /   0  20  70  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/88/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 201651 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
945 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE BASIN AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 248 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS ARE DECREASING THIS
MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN BEHIND A DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM. IN ADDITION SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
THIN CLOUDS OVER WALLOWA COUNTY AND SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON. THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOLER SIDE TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS QUIET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
CWA WILL BE ON MONDAY...FIRST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL PUMP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND RIDE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS HAVING LIKELY POPS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A CLAP OF THUNDER UNDER THIS KIND OF A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
OREGON. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL OREGON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY DUE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THAT WEATHER SYSTEM. 88

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3500 FEET. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY IN THE EVENING BEFORE TAPING OFF OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO IDAHO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OFFSHORE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE RIDGE RAPIDLY THROUGH OUR AREA AND OFF
TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY MOIST AND
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET SO
MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS SYSTEM A
TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HANDLE THE TROUGH
DIFFERENTLY THOUGH ALL KEEP IT OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY SO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
SATURDAY EVENING, THE GFS DEEPENS THE TROUGH SOUTHWARD WITH MOST OF
ITS ENERGY GOING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
FOR NOW UNTIL THE SITUATION COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SEE AN INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12
KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  66  45  54 /   0  10  70  60
ALW  46  67  48  55 /   0  10  60  60
PSC  43  71  50  60 /   0  10  60  50
YKM  40  66  42  56 /   0  20  60  50
HRI  41  69  47  58 /   0  10  60  50
ELN  39  65  41  54 /   0  20  60  50
RDM  35  63  36  47 /   0  10  60  60
LGD  38  66  40  47 /   0  10  60  60
GCD  35  64  37  42 /   0  10  70  60
DLS  45  66  48  55 /   0  20  70  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/









000
FXUS66 KPDT 201651 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
945 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE BASIN AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 248 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS ARE DECREASING THIS
MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN BEHIND A DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM. IN ADDITION SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
THIN CLOUDS OVER WALLOWA COUNTY AND SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON. THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOLER SIDE TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS QUIET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
CWA WILL BE ON MONDAY...FIRST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL PUMP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND RIDE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS HAVING LIKELY POPS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A CLAP OF THUNDER UNDER THIS KIND OF A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
OREGON. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL OREGON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY DUE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THAT WEATHER SYSTEM. 88

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3500 FEET. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY IN THE EVENING BEFORE TAPING OFF OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO IDAHO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OFFSHORE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE RIDGE RAPIDLY THROUGH OUR AREA AND OFF
TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY MOIST AND
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET SO
MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS SYSTEM A
TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HANDLE THE TROUGH
DIFFERENTLY THOUGH ALL KEEP IT OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY SO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
SATURDAY EVENING, THE GFS DEEPENS THE TROUGH SOUTHWARD WITH MOST OF
ITS ENERGY GOING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
FOR NOW UNTIL THE SITUATION COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SEE AN INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12
KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  66  45  54 /   0  10  70  60
ALW  46  67  48  55 /   0  10  60  60
PSC  43  71  50  60 /   0  10  60  50
YKM  40  66  42  56 /   0  20  60  50
HRI  41  69  47  58 /   0  10  60  50
ELN  39  65  41  54 /   0  20  60  50
RDM  35  63  36  47 /   0  10  60  60
LGD  38  66  40  47 /   0  10  60  60
GCD  35  64  37  42 /   0  10  70  60
DLS  45  66  48  55 /   0  20  70  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/









000
FXUS66 KPDT 201651 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
945 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE BASIN AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 248 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS ARE DECREASING THIS
MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN BEHIND A DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM. IN ADDITION SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
THIN CLOUDS OVER WALLOWA COUNTY AND SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON. THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOLER SIDE TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS QUIET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
CWA WILL BE ON MONDAY...FIRST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL PUMP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND RIDE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS HAVING LIKELY POPS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A CLAP OF THUNDER UNDER THIS KIND OF A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
OREGON. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL OREGON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY DUE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THAT WEATHER SYSTEM. 88

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3500 FEET. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY IN THE EVENING BEFORE TAPING OFF OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO IDAHO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OFFSHORE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE RIDGE RAPIDLY THROUGH OUR AREA AND OFF
TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY MOIST AND
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET SO
MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS SYSTEM A
TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HANDLE THE TROUGH
DIFFERENTLY THOUGH ALL KEEP IT OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY SO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
SATURDAY EVENING, THE GFS DEEPENS THE TROUGH SOUTHWARD WITH MOST OF
ITS ENERGY GOING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
FOR NOW UNTIL THE SITUATION COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SEE AN INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12
KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  66  45  54 /   0  10  70  60
ALW  46  67  48  55 /   0  10  60  60
PSC  43  71  50  60 /   0  10  60  50
YKM  40  66  42  56 /   0  20  60  50
HRI  41  69  47  58 /   0  10  60  50
ELN  39  65  41  54 /   0  20  60  50
RDM  35  63  36  47 /   0  10  60  60
LGD  38  66  40  47 /   0  10  60  60
GCD  35  64  37  42 /   0  10  70  60
DLS  45  66  48  55 /   0  20  70  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/









000
FXUS66 KPDT 201651 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
945 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE BASIN AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 248 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS ARE DECREASING THIS
MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN BEHIND A DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM. IN ADDITION SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
THIN CLOUDS OVER WALLOWA COUNTY AND SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON. THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOLER SIDE TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS QUIET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
CWA WILL BE ON MONDAY...FIRST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL PUMP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND RIDE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS HAVING LIKELY POPS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A CLAP OF THUNDER UNDER THIS KIND OF A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
OREGON. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL OREGON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY DUE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THAT WEATHER SYSTEM. 88

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3500 FEET. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY IN THE EVENING BEFORE TAPING OFF OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO IDAHO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OFFSHORE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE RIDGE RAPIDLY THROUGH OUR AREA AND OFF
TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY MOIST AND
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET SO
MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS SYSTEM A
TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HANDLE THE TROUGH
DIFFERENTLY THOUGH ALL KEEP IT OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY SO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
SATURDAY EVENING, THE GFS DEEPENS THE TROUGH SOUTHWARD WITH MOST OF
ITS ENERGY GOING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
FOR NOW UNTIL THE SITUATION COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SEE AN INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12
KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  41  66  45  54 /   0  10  70  60
ALW  46  67  48  55 /   0  10  60  60
PSC  43  71  50  60 /   0  10  60  50
YKM  40  66  42  56 /   0  20  60  50
HRI  41  69  47  58 /   0  10  60  50
ELN  39  65  41  54 /   0  20  60  50
RDM  35  63  36  47 /   0  10  60  60
LGD  38  66  40  47 /   0  10  60  60
GCD  35  64  37  42 /   0  10  70  60
DLS  45  66  48  55 /   0  20  70  60

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/









000
FXUS66 KMFR 201558
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
858 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
THE FROST ADVISORY FOR JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTY VALLEYS
EXPIRED AT 8 AM AND VERIFIED WELL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
30S IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND A FEW READINGS IN THE MID 30S IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY ALTHOUGH LOWS WERE MAINLY AROUND 40. PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS ALSO ARE ON COURSE TO DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THIS
MORNING WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE COVERAGE IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY.

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ON THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z
GFS MODEL DATA IS JUST BEGINNING TO ARRIVE AND THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
COAST AROUND NOON AND SHOULD REACH AS FAR INLAND AS ROSEBURG AND
CAVE JUNCTION BY THE END OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF
RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. A COOL SHOWERY REGIME WILL FOLLOW WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 20/12Z TAF CYCLE...
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/LOW CLOUDS
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY (INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG). THESE LIFT TO VFR AROUND 16Z. VFR
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE (INCLUDING KMFR AND KLMT) WITH SCT-BKN MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. SPILDE/BPN

&&

.MARINE...VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED IN OUR COASTAL
WATERS...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.  SWELL AT BUOY 46002 PEAKED AT 23 FEET 16
SECONDS LAST NIGHT....WHICH AFTER DECAY TRANSLATES TO AROUND 20 FEET
AT 18 SECONDS WITHIN THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE
CONTINUED THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. THE
SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY BREAKERS OF 24 TO 26 FEET OVER BARS
AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED DEPTHS OF UP TO 850
FEET COULD BE RELOCATED OR DAMAGED. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE
THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT/BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA AS PLANNED WITH A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WAITING IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AFTER PATCHY FOG
AND FROST IN THE MORNING. ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND DURING
THE DAY AND WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES...AND MOST OF THE EAST
SIDE. FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS HIGHWAY 31 IN LAKE COUNTY COULD
SEE A STRONG CROSSWIND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW COULD HELP FORM WAVES ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF PAINTS AT LEAST HALF INCH OF
RAIN FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ALSO LOWER TO 3500-4000 FEET ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD
AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS THE MAJOR PASSES ACROSS THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM COLD
AIR ALOFT. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD INTRODUCED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND.

LONG TERM (FROM YESTERDAYS SHIFT)...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER
AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN
AND WE COULD CATCH A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE
GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THERE`S
MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT MAY BE SLOW TO
MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW.
HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND
IS LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO
SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE
HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO
THE SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW






000
FXUS66 KMFR 201558
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
858 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
THE FROST ADVISORY FOR JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTY VALLEYS
EXPIRED AT 8 AM AND VERIFIED WELL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
30S IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND A FEW READINGS IN THE MID 30S IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY ALTHOUGH LOWS WERE MAINLY AROUND 40. PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS ALSO ARE ON COURSE TO DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THIS
MORNING WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE COVERAGE IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY.

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ON THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z
GFS MODEL DATA IS JUST BEGINNING TO ARRIVE AND THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
COAST AROUND NOON AND SHOULD REACH AS FAR INLAND AS ROSEBURG AND
CAVE JUNCTION BY THE END OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF
RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. A COOL SHOWERY REGIME WILL FOLLOW WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 20/12Z TAF CYCLE...
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/LOW CLOUDS
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY (INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG). THESE LIFT TO VFR AROUND 16Z. VFR
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE (INCLUDING KMFR AND KLMT) WITH SCT-BKN MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. SPILDE/BPN

&&

.MARINE...VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED IN OUR COASTAL
WATERS...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.  SWELL AT BUOY 46002 PEAKED AT 23 FEET 16
SECONDS LAST NIGHT....WHICH AFTER DECAY TRANSLATES TO AROUND 20 FEET
AT 18 SECONDS WITHIN THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE
CONTINUED THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. THE
SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY BREAKERS OF 24 TO 26 FEET OVER BARS
AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED DEPTHS OF UP TO 850
FEET COULD BE RELOCATED OR DAMAGED. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE
THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT/BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA AS PLANNED WITH A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WAITING IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AFTER PATCHY FOG
AND FROST IN THE MORNING. ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND DURING
THE DAY AND WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES...AND MOST OF THE EAST
SIDE. FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS HIGHWAY 31 IN LAKE COUNTY COULD
SEE A STRONG CROSSWIND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW COULD HELP FORM WAVES ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF PAINTS AT LEAST HALF INCH OF
RAIN FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ALSO LOWER TO 3500-4000 FEET ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD
AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS THE MAJOR PASSES ACROSS THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM COLD
AIR ALOFT. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD INTRODUCED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND.

LONG TERM (FROM YESTERDAYS SHIFT)...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER
AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN
AND WE COULD CATCH A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE
GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THERE`S
MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT MAY BE SLOW TO
MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW.
HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND
IS LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO
SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE
HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO
THE SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW







000
FXUS66 KPQR 201548
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
848 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER TODAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
MON AND MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT BRINGING A COOLER SHOWERY AIR MASS. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
GOING WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&

.MORNING UPDATE...QUIET CONDITIONS ON AN SPEGG-TACULAR SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. COOL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG ABOUT. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
AND READINGS INTO THE MID 60S SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE WITH A DRY
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD. MINIMAL COSMETIC CHANGES TO
GRIDS THIS MORNING FOR SKY COVER/TEMP TRENDS.

LARGEST IMPACT TODAY IS THE HIGH SURF STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE WATERS WITH LONG PERIOD SEAS OF 18-20 FT . EXPECT HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE TO CONTINUE TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO EASE
LATE IN THE DAY. EXERCISE CAUTION IF HEADED TO THE BEACHES TODAY. KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...EARLY THIS MORNING IT LOOKED LIKE THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH WERE COMING TO AN END
OVER THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP TO THE WA COAST APPEARS TO
LACK MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS MORNING SO WILL DROP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON THE S WA COAST.

NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO APPROACH MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE TROUGH DIGGING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...SO INITIALLY
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO REACH THE COAST WITH MUCH OF THE
BEST DYNAMICS HEADED S. FLOW HOWEVER BACKS TO THE SSW ALOFT MON
BRINGING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS MON AND MON
NIGHT...BUT HOLD OFF ON LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS UNTIL MON NIGHT WHEN
THE FRONT BAND FINALLY PUSHES INLAND AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY REACHES THE COAST. AS THE COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUE. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AS H8 TEMPS GO BELOW ZERO C.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE START OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR
EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST
RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO
THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES.
PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
SCT-BKN LAYER BETWEEN 3000-4000 FT DEVELOPED NORTH OF KPDX-KTMK
LINE WILL PROBABLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
JUST PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA. KEUG THE ONLY TAF SITE WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 17Z- 18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING. MODEL FORECAST IS RUNNING ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT ABOVE
OBSERVATIONS SO HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR
TODAY AND ADDED A FEW MORE HOURS TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT
TONIGHT...AND TO 10 FT TUE MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE.

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WIND OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WED OR THU...LIKELY BRINGING
SMALL CRAFT WINDS.   CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     3 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 201548
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
848 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER TODAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
MON AND MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT BRINGING A COOLER SHOWERY AIR MASS. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
GOING WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&

.MORNING UPDATE...QUIET CONDITIONS ON AN SPEGG-TACULAR SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. COOL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG ABOUT. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
AND READINGS INTO THE MID 60S SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE WITH A DRY
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD. MINIMAL COSMETIC CHANGES TO
GRIDS THIS MORNING FOR SKY COVER/TEMP TRENDS.

LARGEST IMPACT TODAY IS THE HIGH SURF STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE WATERS WITH LONG PERIOD SEAS OF 18-20 FT . EXPECT HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE TO CONTINUE TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO EASE
LATE IN THE DAY. EXERCISE CAUTION IF HEADED TO THE BEACHES TODAY. KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...EARLY THIS MORNING IT LOOKED LIKE THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH WERE COMING TO AN END
OVER THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP TO THE WA COAST APPEARS TO
LACK MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS MORNING SO WILL DROP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON THE S WA COAST.

NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO APPROACH MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE TROUGH DIGGING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...SO INITIALLY
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO REACH THE COAST WITH MUCH OF THE
BEST DYNAMICS HEADED S. FLOW HOWEVER BACKS TO THE SSW ALOFT MON
BRINGING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS MON AND MON
NIGHT...BUT HOLD OFF ON LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS UNTIL MON NIGHT WHEN
THE FRONT BAND FINALLY PUSHES INLAND AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY REACHES THE COAST. AS THE COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUE. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AS H8 TEMPS GO BELOW ZERO C.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE START OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR
EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST
RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO
THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES.
PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
SCT-BKN LAYER BETWEEN 3000-4000 FT DEVELOPED NORTH OF KPDX-KTMK
LINE WILL PROBABLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
JUST PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA. KEUG THE ONLY TAF SITE WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 17Z- 18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING. MODEL FORECAST IS RUNNING ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT ABOVE
OBSERVATIONS SO HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR
TODAY AND ADDED A FEW MORE HOURS TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT
TONIGHT...AND TO 10 FT TUE MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE.

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WIND OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WED OR THU...LIKELY BRINGING
SMALL CRAFT WINDS.   CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     3 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 201548
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
848 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER TODAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
MON AND MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT BRINGING A COOLER SHOWERY AIR MASS. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
GOING WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&

.MORNING UPDATE...QUIET CONDITIONS ON AN SPEGG-TACULAR SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. COOL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG ABOUT. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
AND READINGS INTO THE MID 60S SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE WITH A DRY
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD. MINIMAL COSMETIC CHANGES TO
GRIDS THIS MORNING FOR SKY COVER/TEMP TRENDS.

LARGEST IMPACT TODAY IS THE HIGH SURF STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE WATERS WITH LONG PERIOD SEAS OF 18-20 FT . EXPECT HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE TO CONTINUE TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO EASE
LATE IN THE DAY. EXERCISE CAUTION IF HEADED TO THE BEACHES TODAY. KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...EARLY THIS MORNING IT LOOKED LIKE THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH WERE COMING TO AN END
OVER THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP TO THE WA COAST APPEARS TO
LACK MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS MORNING SO WILL DROP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON THE S WA COAST.

NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO APPROACH MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE TROUGH DIGGING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...SO INITIALLY
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO REACH THE COAST WITH MUCH OF THE
BEST DYNAMICS HEADED S. FLOW HOWEVER BACKS TO THE SSW ALOFT MON
BRINGING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS MON AND MON
NIGHT...BUT HOLD OFF ON LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS UNTIL MON NIGHT WHEN
THE FRONT BAND FINALLY PUSHES INLAND AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY REACHES THE COAST. AS THE COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUE. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AS H8 TEMPS GO BELOW ZERO C.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE START OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR
EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST
RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO
THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES.
PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
SCT-BKN LAYER BETWEEN 3000-4000 FT DEVELOPED NORTH OF KPDX-KTMK
LINE WILL PROBABLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
JUST PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA. KEUG THE ONLY TAF SITE WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 17Z- 18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING. MODEL FORECAST IS RUNNING ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT ABOVE
OBSERVATIONS SO HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR
TODAY AND ADDED A FEW MORE HOURS TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT
TONIGHT...AND TO 10 FT TUE MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE.

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WIND OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WED OR THU...LIKELY BRINGING
SMALL CRAFT WINDS.   CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     3 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 201548
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
848 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER TODAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
MON AND MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT BRINGING A COOLER SHOWERY AIR MASS. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
GOING WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&

.MORNING UPDATE...QUIET CONDITIONS ON AN SPEGG-TACULAR SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. COOL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG ABOUT. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
AND READINGS INTO THE MID 60S SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE WITH A DRY
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD. MINIMAL COSMETIC CHANGES TO
GRIDS THIS MORNING FOR SKY COVER/TEMP TRENDS.

LARGEST IMPACT TODAY IS THE HIGH SURF STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE WATERS WITH LONG PERIOD SEAS OF 18-20 FT . EXPECT HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE TO CONTINUE TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO EASE
LATE IN THE DAY. EXERCISE CAUTION IF HEADED TO THE BEACHES TODAY. KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...EARLY THIS MORNING IT LOOKED LIKE THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH WERE COMING TO AN END
OVER THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP TO THE WA COAST APPEARS TO
LACK MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS MORNING SO WILL DROP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON THE S WA COAST.

NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO APPROACH MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE TROUGH DIGGING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...SO INITIALLY
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO REACH THE COAST WITH MUCH OF THE
BEST DYNAMICS HEADED S. FLOW HOWEVER BACKS TO THE SSW ALOFT MON
BRINGING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS MON AND MON
NIGHT...BUT HOLD OFF ON LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS UNTIL MON NIGHT WHEN
THE FRONT BAND FINALLY PUSHES INLAND AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY REACHES THE COAST. AS THE COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUE. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AS H8 TEMPS GO BELOW ZERO C.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE START OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR
EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST
RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO
THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES.
PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
SCT-BKN LAYER BETWEEN 3000-4000 FT DEVELOPED NORTH OF KPDX-KTMK
LINE WILL PROBABLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
JUST PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA. KEUG THE ONLY TAF SITE WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 17Z- 18Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING. MODEL FORECAST IS RUNNING ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT ABOVE
OBSERVATIONS SO HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR
TODAY AND ADDED A FEW MORE HOURS TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT
TONIGHT...AND TO 10 FT TUE MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE.

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WIND OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WED OR THU...LIKELY BRINGING
SMALL CRAFT WINDS.   CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     3 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201532
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
932 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAGIC VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPERATURES UP TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
LOWER SKY COVER FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WESTERLY FLOW WITH VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TODAY. LIGHT MAINLY W-NW SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT
SW-NW 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM KMUO EAST...
INCLUDING KJER AND KTWF. W-NW WINDS ALOFT 15-20 KNOTS UP TO 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 3 AM
SHOWED A FEW COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
SW IDAHO MOUNTAINS S OF THE SNAKE RIVER. THERE WAS ALSO A MID/HIGH
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY THAT WILL BE ACROSS FAR SE OREGON
THROUGH SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBLE SHOWERS WILL
EXIT SRN TWF COUNTY BY 9 AM. IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER WARM UP ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE DRY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT IN A NEGATIVE
TILTED TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
INTO THE IDAHO ZONES PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THERE IS A DECENT UPPER JET
AND THEREFORE STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH 700MB CONVERGENCE
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL HELPING TO BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE IDAHO ZONES EAST OF BOISE AND
MCCALL. PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 0.10 INCHES...EXCEPT 0.25-
0.50 ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FT. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....CR



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201532
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
932 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAGIC VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPERATURES UP TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
LOWER SKY COVER FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WESTERLY FLOW WITH VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TODAY. LIGHT MAINLY W-NW SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT
SW-NW 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM KMUO EAST...
INCLUDING KJER AND KTWF. W-NW WINDS ALOFT 15-20 KNOTS UP TO 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 3 AM
SHOWED A FEW COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
SW IDAHO MOUNTAINS S OF THE SNAKE RIVER. THERE WAS ALSO A MID/HIGH
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY THAT WILL BE ACROSS FAR SE OREGON
THROUGH SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBLE SHOWERS WILL
EXIT SRN TWF COUNTY BY 9 AM. IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER WARM UP ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE DRY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT IN A NEGATIVE
TILTED TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
INTO THE IDAHO ZONES PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THERE IS A DECENT UPPER JET
AND THEREFORE STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH 700MB CONVERGENCE
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL HELPING TO BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE IDAHO ZONES EAST OF BOISE AND
MCCALL. PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 0.10 INCHES...EXCEPT 0.25-
0.50 ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FT. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....CR




000
FXUS66 KMFR 201032
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
332 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA AS PLANNED WITH A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WAITING IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AFTER PATCHY FOG
AND FROST IN THE MORNING. ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND DURING
THE DAY AND WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES...AND MOST OF THE EAST
SIDE. FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS HIGHWAY 31 IN LAKE COUNTY COULD
SEE A STRONG CROSSWIND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW COULD HELP FORM WAVES ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF PAINTS AT LEAST HALF INCH OF
RAIN FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ALSO LOWER TO 3500-4000 FEET ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD
AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS THE MAJOR PASSES ACROSS THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM COLD
AIR ALOFT. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD INTRODUCED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND.

.LONG TERM (FROM YESTERDAYS SHIFT)...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER
AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN
AND WE COULD CATCH A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE
GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THERE`S
MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT MAY BE SLOW TO
MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW.
HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND
IS LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO
SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE
HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO
THE SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 20/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/LOW CLOUDS
FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY (INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG). THESE LIFT TO VFR AROUND 16Z. VFR
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE (INCLUDING KMFR AND KLMT) WITH SCT-BKN MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED IN OUR COASTAL
WATERS...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.  SWELL AT BUOY 46002 PEAKED AT 23 FEET 16
SECONDS LAST NIGHT....WHICH AFTER DECAY TRANSLATES TO AROUND 20 FEET
AT 18 SECONDS WITHIN THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE
CONTINUED THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. THE
SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY BREAKERS OF 24 TO 26 FEET OVER BARS
AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED DEPTHS OF UP TO 850
FEET COULD BE RELOCATED OR DAMAGED. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE
THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN






000
FXUS66 KMFR 201032
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
332 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA AS PLANNED WITH A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WAITING IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AFTER PATCHY FOG
AND FROST IN THE MORNING. ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND DURING
THE DAY AND WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES...AND MOST OF THE EAST
SIDE. FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS HIGHWAY 31 IN LAKE COUNTY COULD
SEE A STRONG CROSSWIND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW COULD HELP FORM WAVES ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF PAINTS AT LEAST HALF INCH OF
RAIN FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ALSO LOWER TO 3500-4000 FEET ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD
AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS THE MAJOR PASSES ACROSS THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM COLD
AIR ALOFT. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD INTRODUCED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND.

.LONG TERM (FROM YESTERDAYS SHIFT)...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER
AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN
AND WE COULD CATCH A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE
GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THERE`S
MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT MAY BE SLOW TO
MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW.
HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND
IS LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO
SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE
HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO
THE SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 20/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/LOW CLOUDS
FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY (INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG). THESE LIFT TO VFR AROUND 16Z. VFR
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE (INCLUDING KMFR AND KLMT) WITH SCT-BKN MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED IN OUR COASTAL
WATERS...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.  SWELL AT BUOY 46002 PEAKED AT 23 FEET 16
SECONDS LAST NIGHT....WHICH AFTER DECAY TRANSLATES TO AROUND 20 FEET
AT 18 SECONDS WITHIN THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE
CONTINUED THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. THE
SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY BREAKERS OF 24 TO 26 FEET OVER BARS
AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED DEPTHS OF UP TO 850
FEET COULD BE RELOCATED OR DAMAGED. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE
THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN






000
FXUS66 KMFR 201032
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
332 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA AS PLANNED WITH A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WAITING IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AFTER PATCHY FOG
AND FROST IN THE MORNING. ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND DURING
THE DAY AND WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES...AND MOST OF THE EAST
SIDE. FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS HIGHWAY 31 IN LAKE COUNTY COULD
SEE A STRONG CROSSWIND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW COULD HELP FORM WAVES ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF PAINTS AT LEAST HALF INCH OF
RAIN FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ALSO LOWER TO 3500-4000 FEET ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD
AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS THE MAJOR PASSES ACROSS THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM COLD
AIR ALOFT. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD INTRODUCED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND.

.LONG TERM (FROM YESTERDAYS SHIFT)...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER
AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN
AND WE COULD CATCH A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE
GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THERE`S
MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT MAY BE SLOW TO
MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW.
HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND
IS LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO
SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE
HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO
THE SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 20/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/LOW CLOUDS
FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY (INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG). THESE LIFT TO VFR AROUND 16Z. VFR
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE (INCLUDING KMFR AND KLMT) WITH SCT-BKN MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED IN OUR COASTAL
WATERS...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.  SWELL AT BUOY 46002 PEAKED AT 23 FEET 16
SECONDS LAST NIGHT....WHICH AFTER DECAY TRANSLATES TO AROUND 20 FEET
AT 18 SECONDS WITHIN THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE
CONTINUED THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. THE
SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY BREAKERS OF 24 TO 26 FEET OVER BARS
AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED DEPTHS OF UP TO 850
FEET COULD BE RELOCATED OR DAMAGED. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE
THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN






000
FXUS66 KMFR 201032
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
332 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA AS PLANNED WITH A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WAITING IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AFTER PATCHY FOG
AND FROST IN THE MORNING. ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND DURING
THE DAY AND WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES...AND MOST OF THE EAST
SIDE. FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS HIGHWAY 31 IN LAKE COUNTY COULD
SEE A STRONG CROSSWIND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW COULD HELP FORM WAVES ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF PAINTS AT LEAST HALF INCH OF
RAIN FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ALSO LOWER TO 3500-4000 FEET ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD
AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS THE MAJOR PASSES ACROSS THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM COLD
AIR ALOFT. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD INTRODUCED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND.

.LONG TERM (FROM YESTERDAYS SHIFT)...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER
AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN
AND WE COULD CATCH A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE
GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THERE`S
MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT MAY BE SLOW TO
MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW.
HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND
IS LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO
SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE
HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO
THE SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 20/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/LOW CLOUDS
FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY (INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG). THESE LIFT TO VFR AROUND 16Z. VFR
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE (INCLUDING KMFR AND KLMT) WITH SCT-BKN MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED IN OUR COASTAL
WATERS...AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.  SWELL AT BUOY 46002 PEAKED AT 23 FEET 16
SECONDS LAST NIGHT....WHICH AFTER DECAY TRANSLATES TO AROUND 20 FEET
AT 18 SECONDS WITHIN THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE
CONTINUED THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. THE
SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY BREAKERS OF 24 TO 26 FEET OVER BARS
AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED DEPTHS OF UP TO 850
FEET COULD BE RELOCATED OR DAMAGED. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE
THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN






000
FXUS66 KPDT 200948
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
248 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS ARE DECREASING THIS
MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN BEHIND A DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM. IN ADDITION SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
THIN CLOUDS OVER WALLOWA COUNTY AND SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON. THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOLER SIDE TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS QUIET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
CWA WILL BE ON MONDAY...FIRST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL PUMP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND RIDE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS HAVING LIKELY POPS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A CLAP OF THUNDER UNDER THIS KIND OF A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
OREGON. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL OREGON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY DUE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THAT WEATHER SYSTEM. 88

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3500 FEET. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY IN THE EVENING BEFORE TAPING OFF OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO IDAHO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OFFSHORE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE RIDGE RAPIDLY THROUGH OUR AREA AND OFF
TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY MOIST AND
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET SO
MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS SYSTEM A
TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HANDLE THE TROUGH
DIFFERENTLY THOUGH ALL KEEP IT OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY SO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
SATURDAY EVENING, THE GFS DEEPENS THE TROUGH SOUTHWARD WITH MOST OF
ITS ENERGY GOING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
FOR NOW UNTIL THE SITUATION COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SEE AN INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12
KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  41  66  45 /   0   0  10  70
ALW  63  46  67  48 /   0   0  10  60
PSC  69  43  71  50 /   0   0  10  60
YKM  66  40  66  42 /   0   0  20  60
HRI  69  41  69  47 /   0   0  10  60
ELN  65  39  65  41 /   0   0  20  60
RDM  67  35  63  36 /   0   0  10  60
LGD  63  38  66  40 /   0   0  10  60
GCD  62  35  64  37 /   0   0  10  70
DLS  70  45  66  48 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83












000
FXUS66 KPDT 200948
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
248 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS ARE DECREASING THIS
MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN BEHIND A DEPARTING
WEATHER SYSTEM. IN ADDITION SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
THIN CLOUDS OVER WALLOWA COUNTY AND SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON. THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADES THIS MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOLER SIDE TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS QUIET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
CWA WILL BE ON MONDAY...FIRST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL PUMP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND RIDE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS HAVING LIKELY POPS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A CLAP OF THUNDER UNDER THIS KIND OF A SOUTHWEST
FLOW AS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
OREGON. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL OREGON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY DUE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THAT WEATHER SYSTEM. 88

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3500 FEET. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY IN THE EVENING BEFORE TAPING OFF OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING INTO IDAHO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OFFSHORE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE RIDGE RAPIDLY THROUGH OUR AREA AND OFF
TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY MOIST AND
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET SO
MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS SYSTEM A
TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HANDLE THE TROUGH
DIFFERENTLY THOUGH ALL KEEP IT OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY SO
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
SATURDAY EVENING, THE GFS DEEPENS THE TROUGH SOUTHWARD WITH MOST OF
ITS ENERGY GOING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
FOR NOW UNTIL THE SITUATION COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SEE AN INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12
KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  41  66  45 /   0   0  10  70
ALW  63  46  67  48 /   0   0  10  60
PSC  69  43  71  50 /   0   0  10  60
YKM  66  40  66  42 /   0   0  20  60
HRI  69  41  69  47 /   0   0  10  60
ELN  65  39  65  41 /   0   0  20  60
RDM  67  35  63  36 /   0   0  10  60
LGD  63  38  66  40 /   0   0  10  60
GCD  62  35  64  37 /   0   0  10  70
DLS  70  45  66  48 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83











000
FXUS66 KPQR 200933
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
233 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER TODAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
MON AND MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT BRINGING A COOLER SHOWERY AIR MASS. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
GOING WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...EARLY THIS MORNING IT LOOKED LIKE THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH WERE COMING TO AN END
OVER THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP TO THE WA COAST APPEARS TO
LACK MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS MORNING SO WILL DROP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON THE S WA COAST.

NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO APPROACH MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE TROUGH DIGGING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...SO INITIALLY
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO REACH THE COAST WITH MUCH OF THE
BEST DYNAMICS HEADED S. FLOW HOWEVER BACKS TO THE SSW ALOFT MON
BRINGING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS MON AND MON
NIGHT...BUT HOLD OFF ON LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS UNTIL MON NIGHT WHEN
THE FRONT BAND FINALLY PUSHES INLAND AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY REACHES THE COAST. AS THE COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUE. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AS H8 TEMPS GO BELOW ZERO C.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE START OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR
EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST
RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO
THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES.
PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALONG THE COAST...PERSISTENT SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
2000-3000 FT HAVE OCCASIONALLY FORMED A BROKEN DECK. EXPECT PERIODIC
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. OVER
THE INTERIOR...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW STRATUS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY AND DISSIPATE
AROUND 18Z GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. SOME PATCHY
FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z...WITH CHANCE FOR MVFR THROUGH
17Z-18Z. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE BY 18Z GIVING WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...THE LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN REACHED THE OUTER WATERS
AROUND 11 PM LAST NIGHT AS EXPECTED...BRINGING RAPIDLY BUILDING
SEAS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. BUOY 46089 PEAKED 24 FT AT 16 SECONDS
AND REMAINS NEAR 22 FT. THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS...AS BUOY 46029 HAS REACHED 20 FT AND 46050 HAS REACHED 22
FT AT THIS HOUR. STILL EXPECT THE PEAK BETWEEN NOW AND 6 AM THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT TONIGHT...AND TO 10 FT TUE
MORNING. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE S WASHINGTON...N
OREGON...AND CENTRAL OREGON COASTS CONTINUES THROUGH 10 AM TODAY.
NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE IN OR NEAR THE SURF ZONE TODAY.

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WIND OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WED OR THU...LIKELY BRINGING
SMALL CRAFT WINDS.   CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 3 AM
     PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 200933
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
233 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER TODAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
MON AND MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT BRINGING A COOLER SHOWERY AIR MASS. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
GOING WED...THEN ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...EARLY THIS MORNING IT LOOKED LIKE THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH WERE COMING TO AN END
OVER THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP TO THE WA COAST APPEARS TO
LACK MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS MORNING SO WILL DROP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON THE S WA COAST.

NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO APPROACH MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE TROUGH DIGGING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...SO INITIALLY
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO REACH THE COAST WITH MUCH OF THE
BEST DYNAMICS HEADED S. FLOW HOWEVER BACKS TO THE SSW ALOFT MON
BRINGING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS MON AND MON
NIGHT...BUT HOLD OFF ON LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS UNTIL MON NIGHT WHEN
THE FRONT BAND FINALLY PUSHES INLAND AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FINALLY REACHES THE COAST. AS THE COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUE. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AS H8 TEMPS GO BELOW ZERO C.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE START OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR
EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST
RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO
THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES.
PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALONG THE COAST...PERSISTENT SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
2000-3000 FT HAVE OCCASIONALLY FORMED A BROKEN DECK. EXPECT PERIODIC
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. OVER
THE INTERIOR...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW STRATUS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY AND DISSIPATE
AROUND 18Z GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SUN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. SOME PATCHY
FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z...WITH CHANCE FOR MVFR THROUGH
17Z-18Z. ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE BY 18Z GIVING WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...THE LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN REACHED THE OUTER WATERS
AROUND 11 PM LAST NIGHT AS EXPECTED...BRINGING RAPIDLY BUILDING
SEAS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. BUOY 46089 PEAKED 24 FT AT 16 SECONDS
AND REMAINS NEAR 22 FT. THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS...AS BUOY 46029 HAS REACHED 20 FT AND 46050 HAS REACHED 22
FT AT THIS HOUR. STILL EXPECT THE PEAK BETWEEN NOW AND 6 AM THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT TONIGHT...AND TO 10 FT TUE
MORNING. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE S WASHINGTON...N
OREGON...AND CENTRAL OREGON COASTS CONTINUES THROUGH 10 AM TODAY.
NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE IN OR NEAR THE SURF ZONE TODAY.

A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IN TERMS OF WIND OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WED OR THU...LIKELY BRINGING
SMALL CRAFT WINDS.   CULLEN


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 3 AM
     PDT MONDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS65 KBOI 200930
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 3 AM
SHOWED A FEW COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
SW IDAHO MOUNTAINS S OF THE SNAKE RIVER. THERE WAS ALSO A MID/HIGH
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY THAT WILL BE ACROSS FAR SE OREGON
THROUGH SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBLE SHOWERS WILL
EXIT SRN TWF COUNTY BY 9 AM. IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER WARM UP ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE DRY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT IN A NEGATIVE
TILTED TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
INTO THE IDAHO ZONES PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THERE IS A DECENT UPPER JET
AND THEREFORE STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH 700MB CONVERGENCE
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL HELPING TO BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE IDAHO ZONES EAST OF BOISE AND
MCCALL. PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 0.10 INCHES...EXCEPT 0.25-
0.50 ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FT. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTTLED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. A
BREIF BREAK IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST OF KMYL POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNRISE.  STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH
SUNRISE...THEN DIMINISH. WINDS AROUND 10 KFT WEST TO NORTHWEST 15 TO
20 KTS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....CR
AVIATION.....CR




000
FXUS65 KBOI 200930
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 3 AM
SHOWED A FEW COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
SW IDAHO MOUNTAINS S OF THE SNAKE RIVER. THERE WAS ALSO A MID/HIGH
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY THAT WILL BE ACROSS FAR SE OREGON
THROUGH SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBLE SHOWERS WILL
EXIT SRN TWF COUNTY BY 9 AM. IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER WARM UP ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE DRY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT IN A NEGATIVE
TILTED TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
INTO THE IDAHO ZONES PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THERE IS A DECENT UPPER JET
AND THEREFORE STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH 700MB CONVERGENCE
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL HELPING TO BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE IDAHO ZONES EAST OF BOISE AND
MCCALL. PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 0.10 INCHES...EXCEPT 0.25-
0.50 ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FT. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTTLED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. A
BREIF BREAK IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST OF KMYL POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNRISE.  STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH
SUNRISE...THEN DIMINISH. WINDS AROUND 10 KFT WEST TO NORTHWEST 15 TO
20 KTS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....CR
AVIATION.....CR




000
FXUS65 KBOI 200930
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 3 AM
SHOWED A FEW COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
SW IDAHO MOUNTAINS S OF THE SNAKE RIVER. THERE WAS ALSO A MID/HIGH
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY THAT WILL BE ACROSS FAR SE OREGON
THROUGH SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBLE SHOWERS WILL
EXIT SRN TWF COUNTY BY 9 AM. IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER WARM UP ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE DRY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT IN A NEGATIVE
TILTED TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
INTO THE IDAHO ZONES PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THERE IS A DECENT UPPER JET
AND THEREFORE STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH 700MB CONVERGENCE
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL HELPING TO BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE IDAHO ZONES EAST OF BOISE AND
MCCALL. PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 0.10 INCHES...EXCEPT 0.25-
0.50 ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FT. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTTLED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. A
BREIF BREAK IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST OF KMYL POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNRISE.  STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH
SUNRISE...THEN DIMINISH. WINDS AROUND 10 KFT WEST TO NORTHWEST 15 TO
20 KTS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....CR
AVIATION.....CR




000
FXUS65 KBOI 200930
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 3 AM
SHOWED A FEW COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
SW IDAHO MOUNTAINS S OF THE SNAKE RIVER. THERE WAS ALSO A MID/HIGH
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY THAT WILL BE ACROSS FAR SE OREGON
THROUGH SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBLE SHOWERS WILL
EXIT SRN TWF COUNTY BY 9 AM. IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER WARM UP ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE DRY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT IN A NEGATIVE
TILTED TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN OREGON EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
INTO THE IDAHO ZONES PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THERE IS A DECENT UPPER JET
AND THEREFORE STRONG UPR DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH 700MB CONVERGENCE
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL HELPING TO BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE IDAHO ZONES EAST OF BOISE AND
MCCALL. PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 0.10 INCHES...EXCEPT 0.25-
0.50 ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FT. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTTLED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. A
BREIF BREAK IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST OF KMYL POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNRISE.  STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH
SUNRISE...THEN DIMINISH. WINDS AROUND 10 KFT WEST TO NORTHWEST 15 TO
20 KTS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....CR
AVIATION.....CR




000
FXUS66 KPDT 200537
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN IMPACT WAS TO BRING A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WEST WINDS. THESE WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WAS LIMITED MAINLY TO THE CASCADES WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
BLUES. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WITH DECREASING WIND AND CLOUDS AND A COLD
AIRMASS OVERHEAD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S MOST
LOCATIONS. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN. THE COLD
UNSTABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.  94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS. INCREASING CIRRUS SUNDAY WITH BKN200. WINDS 5-10KT.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 450 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE RAIN REACHING TOO FAR TO THE EAST DUE TO RAIN
SHADOWING. THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MAY PICK UP SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN THE WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST ON
MONDAY...TURNING THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
PRECIPITATION UP TO THE CASCADES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW INLAND FOR
MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500-4000
FEET. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT
THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DMH

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT  A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW LEVEL STARTS OUT
NEAR 3500-4500 FT EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN LOWERS TO AROUND
3000-3500 FT OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT INTO IDAHO AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY FOR DECREASING POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND AND USHERS IN A WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE CASCADE CRESTS
AND THEN ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  64  41  67 /  10   0   0  10
ALW  40  64  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  39  67  43  71 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  34  65  40  67 /  10   0   0  20
HRI  36  67  41  70 /  10   0   0  10
ELN  36  64  39  65 /  20   0   0  20
RDM  24  66  35  66 /  10   0   0  10
LGD  34  61  38  67 /  20   0   0  10
GCD  30  61  35  65 /  10   0   0  10
DLS  40  68  45  68 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 200537
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN IMPACT WAS TO BRING A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WEST WINDS. THESE WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WAS LIMITED MAINLY TO THE CASCADES WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
BLUES. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WITH DECREASING WIND AND CLOUDS AND A COLD
AIRMASS OVERHEAD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S MOST
LOCATIONS. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN. THE COLD
UNSTABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.  94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS. INCREASING CIRRUS SUNDAY WITH BKN200. WINDS 5-10KT.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 450 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE RAIN REACHING TOO FAR TO THE EAST DUE TO RAIN
SHADOWING. THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MAY PICK UP SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN THE WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST ON
MONDAY...TURNING THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
PRECIPITATION UP TO THE CASCADES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW INLAND FOR
MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500-4000
FEET. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT
THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DMH

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT  A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW LEVEL STARTS OUT
NEAR 3500-4500 FT EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN LOWERS TO AROUND
3000-3500 FT OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT INTO IDAHO AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY FOR DECREASING POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND AND USHERS IN A WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE CASCADE CRESTS
AND THEN ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  64  41  67 /  10   0   0  10
ALW  40  64  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  39  67  43  71 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  34  65  40  67 /  10   0   0  20
HRI  36  67  41  70 /  10   0   0  10
ELN  36  64  39  65 /  20   0   0  20
RDM  24  66  35  66 /  10   0   0  10
LGD  34  61  38  67 /  20   0   0  10
GCD  30  61  35  65 /  10   0   0  10
DLS  40  68  45  68 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/







000
FXUS66 KMFR 200349
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
849 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS ON ITS WAY INTO NEVADA AND IDAHO THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT REMAINED LARGELY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY.

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
EASING THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM IN MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. WITH CLEARING SKIES,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME OF TYPICALLY
COLDER SPOTS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES. EXPECTING A LOW
NEAR 38 IN MEDFORD AND GRANTS PASS, BUT SOME LOCAL SPOTS MAY DIP
DOWN TO 34 OR 35 AROUND SUNRISE. A FROST ADVISORY (NPWMFR) REMAINS
IN EFFECT. AFTER A CHILLY START, EASTER SUNDAY WILL HAVE A MILD
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST SIDE.
MOST AREAS SHOULD GET WET WITH THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FURTHER DETAILS FOLLOW IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 20/00Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS AND WIND WILL BOTH
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA (INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG) WHERE
SOME RADIATIONAL STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN. AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS/FOG BURNS
OFF TOMORROW, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...A VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE SWELL HAS FINALLY ARRIVED AT BUOY 46002
WHERE IT PEAKED AT 23 FEET 16 SECONDS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. SWELL
DECAY TOOLS SHOW THAT IT WILL STILL BE AT AROUND 20 FEET WITH
PERIODS LENGTHENING TO AROUND 18 SECONDS WHEN IT ARRIVES AT THE
COAST OVERNIGHT, SO THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WAS EXTENDED ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY
BREAKERS OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED
AT DEPTHS OF AROUND 850 FEET OR LESS COULD BE RELOCATED OR
DAMAGED. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AS SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT
WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...BEHIND A WEAK FRONT EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY. THEN A MORE ACTIVE AND MOIST PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY, A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND TO THE CASCADES
AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS DOUGLAS
COUNTY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES, ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTY DUE
TO COLD TEMPERATURES IMPACTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS FORECAST A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ON MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA...THEN PUSH INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODELS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE CASCADES AND INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. CURRENTLY HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES BUT KEPT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
INLAND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST.

THEN MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM AROUND 6000 TO
7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING DOWN TO 5000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER TO AROUND 4000 FEET TUESDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN
SHOWERS EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

A COLD SHOWERY AIR MASS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO PLACE. ALSO THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.
ALSO, THE NAM SHOWS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS.

MODELS SHOW INCREASED VARIABILITY CONCERNING HOW MUCH SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES A WEAKER RIDGE WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OFFSHORE, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
OREGON AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CWA. CMC

LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN AND WE COULD CATCH A
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT
COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND THERE`S MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN
THE TWO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE
UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND IS
LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO SHOW
A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE HIGHER
THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO THE
SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5
     PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/CMC/MAP/TRW







000
FXUS66 KMFR 200349
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
849 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS ON ITS WAY INTO NEVADA AND IDAHO THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT REMAINED LARGELY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY.

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
EASING THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM IN MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. WITH CLEARING SKIES,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME OF TYPICALLY
COLDER SPOTS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES. EXPECTING A LOW
NEAR 38 IN MEDFORD AND GRANTS PASS, BUT SOME LOCAL SPOTS MAY DIP
DOWN TO 34 OR 35 AROUND SUNRISE. A FROST ADVISORY (NPWMFR) REMAINS
IN EFFECT. AFTER A CHILLY START, EASTER SUNDAY WILL HAVE A MILD
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST SIDE.
MOST AREAS SHOULD GET WET WITH THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FURTHER DETAILS FOLLOW IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 20/00Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS AND WIND WILL BOTH
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA (INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG) WHERE
SOME RADIATIONAL STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN. AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS/FOG BURNS
OFF TOMORROW, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...A VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE SWELL HAS FINALLY ARRIVED AT BUOY 46002
WHERE IT PEAKED AT 23 FEET 16 SECONDS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. SWELL
DECAY TOOLS SHOW THAT IT WILL STILL BE AT AROUND 20 FEET WITH
PERIODS LENGTHENING TO AROUND 18 SECONDS WHEN IT ARRIVES AT THE
COAST OVERNIGHT, SO THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WAS EXTENDED ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY
BREAKERS OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED
AT DEPTHS OF AROUND 850 FEET OR LESS COULD BE RELOCATED OR
DAMAGED. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AS SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT
WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...BEHIND A WEAK FRONT EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY. THEN A MORE ACTIVE AND MOIST PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY, A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND TO THE CASCADES
AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS DOUGLAS
COUNTY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES, ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTY DUE
TO COLD TEMPERATURES IMPACTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS FORECAST A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ON MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA...THEN PUSH INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODELS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE CASCADES AND INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. CURRENTLY HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES BUT KEPT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
INLAND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST.

THEN MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM AROUND 6000 TO
7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING DOWN TO 5000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER TO AROUND 4000 FEET TUESDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN
SHOWERS EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

A COLD SHOWERY AIR MASS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO PLACE. ALSO THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.
ALSO, THE NAM SHOWS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS.

MODELS SHOW INCREASED VARIABILITY CONCERNING HOW MUCH SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES A WEAKER RIDGE WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OFFSHORE, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
OREGON AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CWA. CMC

LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN AND WE COULD CATCH A
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT
COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND THERE`S MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN
THE TWO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE
UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND IS
LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO SHOW
A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE HIGHER
THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO THE
SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5
     PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/CMC/MAP/TRW







000
FXUS66 KMFR 200349
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
849 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS ON ITS WAY INTO NEVADA AND IDAHO THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT REMAINED LARGELY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY.

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
EASING THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM IN MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. WITH CLEARING SKIES,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME OF TYPICALLY
COLDER SPOTS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES. EXPECTING A LOW
NEAR 38 IN MEDFORD AND GRANTS PASS, BUT SOME LOCAL SPOTS MAY DIP
DOWN TO 34 OR 35 AROUND SUNRISE. A FROST ADVISORY (NPWMFR) REMAINS
IN EFFECT. AFTER A CHILLY START, EASTER SUNDAY WILL HAVE A MILD
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST SIDE.
MOST AREAS SHOULD GET WET WITH THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FURTHER DETAILS FOLLOW IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 20/00Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS AND WIND WILL BOTH
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA (INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG) WHERE
SOME RADIATIONAL STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN. AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS/FOG BURNS
OFF TOMORROW, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...A VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE SWELL HAS FINALLY ARRIVED AT BUOY 46002
WHERE IT PEAKED AT 23 FEET 16 SECONDS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. SWELL
DECAY TOOLS SHOW THAT IT WILL STILL BE AT AROUND 20 FEET WITH
PERIODS LENGTHENING TO AROUND 18 SECONDS WHEN IT ARRIVES AT THE
COAST OVERNIGHT, SO THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WAS EXTENDED ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY
BREAKERS OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED
AT DEPTHS OF AROUND 850 FEET OR LESS COULD BE RELOCATED OR
DAMAGED. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AS SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT
WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...BEHIND A WEAK FRONT EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY. THEN A MORE ACTIVE AND MOIST PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY, A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND TO THE CASCADES
AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS DOUGLAS
COUNTY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES, ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTY DUE
TO COLD TEMPERATURES IMPACTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS FORECAST A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ON MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA...THEN PUSH INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODELS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE CASCADES AND INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. CURRENTLY HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES BUT KEPT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
INLAND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST.

THEN MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM AROUND 6000 TO
7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING DOWN TO 5000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER TO AROUND 4000 FEET TUESDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN
SHOWERS EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

A COLD SHOWERY AIR MASS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO PLACE. ALSO THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.
ALSO, THE NAM SHOWS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS.

MODELS SHOW INCREASED VARIABILITY CONCERNING HOW MUCH SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES A WEAKER RIDGE WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OFFSHORE, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
OREGON AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CWA. CMC

LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN AND WE COULD CATCH A
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT
COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND THERE`S MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN
THE TWO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE
UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND IS
LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO SHOW
A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE HIGHER
THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO THE
SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5
     PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/CMC/MAP/TRW







000
FXUS66 KMFR 200349
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
849 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS ON ITS WAY INTO NEVADA AND IDAHO THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT REMAINED LARGELY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY.

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
EASING THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM IN MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. WITH CLEARING SKIES,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME OF TYPICALLY
COLDER SPOTS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES. EXPECTING A LOW
NEAR 38 IN MEDFORD AND GRANTS PASS, BUT SOME LOCAL SPOTS MAY DIP
DOWN TO 34 OR 35 AROUND SUNRISE. A FROST ADVISORY (NPWMFR) REMAINS
IN EFFECT. AFTER A CHILLY START, EASTER SUNDAY WILL HAVE A MILD
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST SIDE.
MOST AREAS SHOULD GET WET WITH THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FURTHER DETAILS FOLLOW IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 20/00Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS AND WIND WILL BOTH
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA (INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG) WHERE
SOME RADIATIONAL STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN. AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS/FOG BURNS
OFF TOMORROW, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...A VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE SWELL HAS FINALLY ARRIVED AT BUOY 46002
WHERE IT PEAKED AT 23 FEET 16 SECONDS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. SWELL
DECAY TOOLS SHOW THAT IT WILL STILL BE AT AROUND 20 FEET WITH
PERIODS LENGTHENING TO AROUND 18 SECONDS WHEN IT ARRIVES AT THE
COAST OVERNIGHT, SO THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WAS EXTENDED ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY
BREAKERS OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED
AT DEPTHS OF AROUND 850 FEET OR LESS COULD BE RELOCATED OR
DAMAGED. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AS SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT
WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...BEHIND A WEAK FRONT EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY. THEN A MORE ACTIVE AND MOIST PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY, A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND TO THE CASCADES
AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS DOUGLAS
COUNTY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES, ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTY DUE
TO COLD TEMPERATURES IMPACTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS FORECAST A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ON MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA...THEN PUSH INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODELS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE CASCADES AND INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. CURRENTLY HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES BUT KEPT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
INLAND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST.

THEN MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM AROUND 6000 TO
7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING DOWN TO 5000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER TO AROUND 4000 FEET TUESDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN
SHOWERS EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

A COLD SHOWERY AIR MASS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO PLACE. ALSO THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.
ALSO, THE NAM SHOWS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS.

MODELS SHOW INCREASED VARIABILITY CONCERNING HOW MUCH SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES A WEAKER RIDGE WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OFFSHORE, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
OREGON AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CWA. CMC

LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN AND WE COULD CATCH A
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT
COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND THERE`S MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN
THE TWO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE
UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND IS
LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO SHOW
A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE HIGHER
THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO THE
SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5
     PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/CMC/MAP/TRW







000
FXUS66 KPQR 200347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
846 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT.
EAST . WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY DIGS
TOWARD CALIFORNIA...THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE
RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED
AS MORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.

&&

.UPDATE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING AS EXPECTED...AND CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN COLD FRONT HAS
CLEARED AND NOW ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A STEADY STREAM OF POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS. SATELLITE DEPICTS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS
OFFSHORE WORKING ITS WAY THIS DIRECTION AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS
THE MOIST FLOW HITS LAND. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODESTLY
STEEP. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS ALREADY NOSING INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR FLORENCE AND
NEWPORT.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...EXPECT A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...BUT THE LOWEST
LEVELS STABILIZE ENOUGH TO MENTION PATCHY FOG...FAVORED MOST FOR
POINTS FARTHER SOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING...TEMPERATURES FALL INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS AND THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU
HEAD INTO THE VALLEY.

FLAT RIDGING TONIGHT AMPLIFIES SOME ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITHWARMER TEMPS AFTER
THE COOL START. MID TO UPPER 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
FILTERED SUNSHINE AS HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH IN AHEAD OF A COMPACT
CIRCULATION OUT NEAR 46N/145W AT THE BASE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
LOW. THIS CIRCULATION WILL HEAD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SA THIS IS HAPPENING
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN A PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA...BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES TO SOME DEGREE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AIR MASS AT BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS
DIGGING THE TROUGH S PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON
TO CHANCE CATEGORY INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT.

SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS
COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
MOST ORGANIZED PERIOD OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND THE
PASSESMID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD. NORMALLY -28C TO POSSIBLY COOLER AT 500 TEMPS BRINGS
CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED THUNDER. MAIN FORCING PASSES BY SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A THUNDER MENTION YET...BUT CAN SEE IT BEING
ADDED A FUTURE TIME. /KMD

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE START OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR
EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST
RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO
THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES.
PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE AREA. INCREASING STABLE CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS EARLY SUN
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. AFTER 12Z SUN MODEL RH
FIELDS AND SOUNDING SUGGEST A CLOUD LAYER AROUND 2500 FT COULD
DEVELOP IN THE AREA. IF IT DOES FORM THE LAYER WOULD DISSIPATE BY
18Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...POST FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS EVENING. A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
STARTS THE WORK WEEK WITH WEAK SYSTEM NEARING THE WATERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED OR THU...LIKELY BRINGING SMALL
CRAFT WINDS.

A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUN. ENP WAVE
MODEL IS DOING WELL BASED ON COMPARISON WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS.
BUOY 46089 WAS 16 FT AT 15 SECONDS AS OF 03Z THIS EVENING...ON
TRACK TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN THE
SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT...AND PEAKING AROUND MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 5 AM SUN. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT
EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
COASTS. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 6 PM AND
10 PM AND LIKELY PEAK NEAR 20 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN
MORNING THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE IN OR NEAR
THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     MIDNIGHT PDT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 200347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
846 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT.
EAST . WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY DIGS
TOWARD CALIFORNIA...THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE
RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED
AS MORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.

&&

.UPDATE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING AS EXPECTED...AND CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN COLD FRONT HAS
CLEARED AND NOW ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A STEADY STREAM OF POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS. SATELLITE DEPICTS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS
OFFSHORE WORKING ITS WAY THIS DIRECTION AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS
THE MOIST FLOW HITS LAND. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODESTLY
STEEP. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS ALREADY NOSING INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR FLORENCE AND
NEWPORT.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...EXPECT A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...BUT THE LOWEST
LEVELS STABILIZE ENOUGH TO MENTION PATCHY FOG...FAVORED MOST FOR
POINTS FARTHER SOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING...TEMPERATURES FALL INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS AND THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU
HEAD INTO THE VALLEY.

FLAT RIDGING TONIGHT AMPLIFIES SOME ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITHWARMER TEMPS AFTER
THE COOL START. MID TO UPPER 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
FILTERED SUNSHINE AS HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH IN AHEAD OF A COMPACT
CIRCULATION OUT NEAR 46N/145W AT THE BASE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
LOW. THIS CIRCULATION WILL HEAD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SA THIS IS HAPPENING
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN A PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA...BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES TO SOME DEGREE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AIR MASS AT BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS
DIGGING THE TROUGH S PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON
TO CHANCE CATEGORY INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT.

SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS
COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
MOST ORGANIZED PERIOD OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND THE
PASSESMID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD. NORMALLY -28C TO POSSIBLY COOLER AT 500 TEMPS BRINGS
CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED THUNDER. MAIN FORCING PASSES BY SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A THUNDER MENTION YET...BUT CAN SEE IT BEING
ADDED A FUTURE TIME. /KMD

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE START OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR
EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST
RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO
THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES.
PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE AREA. INCREASING STABLE CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS EARLY SUN
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. AFTER 12Z SUN MODEL RH
FIELDS AND SOUNDING SUGGEST A CLOUD LAYER AROUND 2500 FT COULD
DEVELOP IN THE AREA. IF IT DOES FORM THE LAYER WOULD DISSIPATE BY
18Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...POST FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS EVENING. A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
STARTS THE WORK WEEK WITH WEAK SYSTEM NEARING THE WATERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED OR THU...LIKELY BRINGING SMALL
CRAFT WINDS.

A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUN. ENP WAVE
MODEL IS DOING WELL BASED ON COMPARISON WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS.
BUOY 46089 WAS 16 FT AT 15 SECONDS AS OF 03Z THIS EVENING...ON
TRACK TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN THE
SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT...AND PEAKING AROUND MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 5 AM SUN. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT
EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
COASTS. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 6 PM AND
10 PM AND LIKELY PEAK NEAR 20 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN
MORNING THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE IN OR NEAR
THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     MIDNIGHT PDT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 200347
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
846 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT.
EAST . WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY DIGS
TOWARD CALIFORNIA...THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE
RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED
AS MORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.

&&

.UPDATE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING AS EXPECTED...AND CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN COLD FRONT HAS
CLEARED AND NOW ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A STEADY STREAM OF POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS. SATELLITE DEPICTS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS
OFFSHORE WORKING ITS WAY THIS DIRECTION AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS
THE MOIST FLOW HITS LAND. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODESTLY
STEEP. THERE MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS ALREADY NOSING INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR FLORENCE AND
NEWPORT.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...EXPECT A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...BUT THE LOWEST
LEVELS STABILIZE ENOUGH TO MENTION PATCHY FOG...FAVORED MOST FOR
POINTS FARTHER SOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING...TEMPERATURES FALL INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS AND THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU
HEAD INTO THE VALLEY.

FLAT RIDGING TONIGHT AMPLIFIES SOME ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITHWARMER TEMPS AFTER
THE COOL START. MID TO UPPER 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
FILTERED SUNSHINE AS HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH IN AHEAD OF A COMPACT
CIRCULATION OUT NEAR 46N/145W AT THE BASE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
LOW. THIS CIRCULATION WILL HEAD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SA THIS IS HAPPENING
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN A PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA...BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES TO SOME DEGREE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AIR MASS AT BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS
DIGGING THE TROUGH S PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON
TO CHANCE CATEGORY INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT.

SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS
COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
MOST ORGANIZED PERIOD OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND THE
PASSESMID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD. NORMALLY -28C TO POSSIBLY COOLER AT 500 TEMPS BRINGS
CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED THUNDER. MAIN FORCING PASSES BY SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A THUNDER MENTION YET...BUT CAN SEE IT BEING
ADDED A FUTURE TIME. /KMD

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...TUE NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE START OUT FAIRLY
QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR
EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST
RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO
THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES.
PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE AREA. INCREASING STABLE CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS EARLY SUN
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR NEXT 24 HRS. AFTER 12Z SUN MODEL RH
FIELDS AND SOUNDING SUGGEST A CLOUD LAYER AROUND 2500 FT COULD
DEVELOP IN THE AREA. IF IT DOES FORM THE LAYER WOULD DISSIPATE BY
18Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...POST FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS EVENING. A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
STARTS THE WORK WEEK WITH WEAK SYSTEM NEARING THE WATERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED OR THU...LIKELY BRINGING SMALL
CRAFT WINDS.

A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUN. ENP WAVE
MODEL IS DOING WELL BASED ON COMPARISON WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS.
BUOY 46089 WAS 16 FT AT 15 SECONDS AS OF 03Z THIS EVENING...ON
TRACK TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN THE
SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT...AND PEAKING AROUND MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 5 AM SUN. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT
EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
COASTS. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 6 PM AND
10 PM AND LIKELY PEAK NEAR 20 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN
MORNING THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE IN OR NEAR
THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR NORTH OREGON
     COAST.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     MIDNIGHT PDT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS65 KBOI 200235
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
835 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY COLD FRONT JUST REACHING THE OREGON/IDAHO
BORDER AT 02Z. THERE IS ABOUT A 15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE
FRONT...LOW 70S AHEAD AND MID 50S BEHIND. WINDS GUSTS TO 42 MPH
SEEN AT BAKER CITY AND BURNS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON.
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE BOISE METRO AREA BY 0330Z AND THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY AROUND 07Z. TEMPEATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREE
COOLER SUNDAY BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NO FORECAST
UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...SCT HIGH
CLOUDS SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY 15-25KT IN EASTERN OREGON WITH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS...DIMINISHING AFTER 05Z. DRY COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI 03-04Z...KTWF BETWEEN 06-08Z. EXPECT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH FRONT UP TO 25KT. LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF
KMYL 03-09Z SUN. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...W 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WARM AND DRY S-SW FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S. COLD FRONT
NEAR THE CASCADES IN OREGON IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH SE
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND SW IDAHO THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...GUSTS TO 35 MPH WITH THE FROPA. TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS 7-9 PM IN BOISE AND AROUND MIDNIGHT IN TWIN
FALLS/JEROME. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED TO
NORTH OF BAKER AND MCCALL. COOLER AND DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL FOLLOW
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6-12 DEGREES LOWER...BUT STILL
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS EAST OF
BOISE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL /60S AND 70S/ AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. A SMALL AREA OF
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS SOUTH OF TWIN FALLS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER ON
THE WAY FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES COLDER TUESDAY FROM
MONDAY TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4000 FT MSL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE COMING BACK UP TO AROUND 6000 FT MSL FOR
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THURSDAY LOOKS DRIER AS THE
REGION TRANSITIONS THROUGH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE INTO ANOTHER POTENT
PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH ARRIVES BY FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/DD




000
FXUS65 KBOI 200235
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
835 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY COLD FRONT JUST REACHING THE OREGON/IDAHO
BORDER AT 02Z. THERE IS ABOUT A 15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE
FRONT...LOW 70S AHEAD AND MID 50S BEHIND. WINDS GUSTS TO 42 MPH
SEEN AT BAKER CITY AND BURNS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON.
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE BOISE METRO AREA BY 0330Z AND THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY AROUND 07Z. TEMPEATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREE
COOLER SUNDAY BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NO FORECAST
UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...SCT HIGH
CLOUDS SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY 15-25KT IN EASTERN OREGON WITH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS...DIMINISHING AFTER 05Z. DRY COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI 03-04Z...KTWF BETWEEN 06-08Z. EXPECT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH FRONT UP TO 25KT. LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF
KMYL 03-09Z SUN. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...W 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WARM AND DRY S-SW FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S. COLD FRONT
NEAR THE CASCADES IN OREGON IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH SE
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND SW IDAHO THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...GUSTS TO 35 MPH WITH THE FROPA. TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS 7-9 PM IN BOISE AND AROUND MIDNIGHT IN TWIN
FALLS/JEROME. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED TO
NORTH OF BAKER AND MCCALL. COOLER AND DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL FOLLOW
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6-12 DEGREES LOWER...BUT STILL
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS EAST OF
BOISE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL /60S AND 70S/ AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. A SMALL AREA OF
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS SOUTH OF TWIN FALLS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER ON
THE WAY FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES COLDER TUESDAY FROM
MONDAY TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4000 FT MSL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE COMING BACK UP TO AROUND 6000 FT MSL FOR
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THURSDAY LOOKS DRIER AS THE
REGION TRANSITIONS THROUGH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE INTO ANOTHER POTENT
PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH ARRIVES BY FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/DD



000
FXUS66 KMFR 200220
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
720 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...BEHIND A WEAK FRONT EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY. THEN A MORE ACTIVE AND MOIST PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY, A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND TO THE CASCADES
AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS DOUGLAS
COUNTY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES, ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTY DUE
TO COLD TEMPERATURES IMPACTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS FORECAST A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ON MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA...THEN PUSH INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODELS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE CASCADES AND INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. CURRENTLY HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES BUT KEPT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
INLAND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST.

THEN MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM AROUND 6000 TO
7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING DOWN TO 5000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER TO AROUND 4000 FEET TUESDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN
SHOWERS EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

A COLD SHOWERY AIR MASS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO PLACE. ALSO THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.
ALSO, THE NAM SHOWS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS.

MODELS SHOW INCREASED VARIABILITY CONCERNING HOW MUCH SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES A WEAKER RIDGE WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OFFSHORE, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
OREGON AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN AND WE COULD CATCH A
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT
COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND THERE`S MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN
THE TWO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE
UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND IS
LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO SHOW
A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE HIGHER
THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO THE
SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.
-PETRUCELLI

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
MODERATE TURBULENCE ALONG AND ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE CASCADES AND
GUSTY WINDS AT KLMT THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS RETURN ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AND IT`S POSSIBLE IT COULD DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW IFR CIGS AT
KRBG, BUT IT DIDN`T SHOW IT YESTERDAY EITHER AND LOW CIGS FORMED
AROUND 13Z. FOR NOW KEPT IT IN THE TAF, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL WANT
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS. -PETRUCELLI

.MARINE...A VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. THE SWELL HAS FINALLY ARRIVED AT BUOY 46002 WHERE IT
PEAKED AT 23 FEET 16 SECONDS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. SWELL DECAY
TOOLS SHOW THAT IT WILL STILL BE AT AROUND 20 FEET WITH PERIODS
LENGTHENING TO AROUND 18 SECONDS WHEN IT ARRIVES AT THE COAST
OVERNIGHT, SO THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WAS EXTENDED ALL THE WAY
TO THE COAST. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY BREAKERS
OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED AT DEPTHS
OF AROUND 850 FEET OR LESS COULD BE RELOCATED OR DAMAGED. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN AT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL MORE
SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS
SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5
     PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 200220
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
720 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...BEHIND A WEAK FRONT EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY. THEN A MORE ACTIVE AND MOIST PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY, A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND TO THE CASCADES
AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS DOUGLAS
COUNTY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES, ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTY DUE
TO COLD TEMPERATURES IMPACTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS FORECAST A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ON MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA...THEN PUSH INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODELS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE CASCADES AND INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. CURRENTLY HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES BUT KEPT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
INLAND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST.

THEN MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM AROUND 6000 TO
7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING DOWN TO 5000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER TO AROUND 4000 FEET TUESDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN
SHOWERS EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

A COLD SHOWERY AIR MASS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO PLACE. ALSO THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.
ALSO, THE NAM SHOWS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS.

MODELS SHOW INCREASED VARIABILITY CONCERNING HOW MUCH SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES A WEAKER RIDGE WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OFFSHORE, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
OREGON AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN AND WE COULD CATCH A
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT
COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND THERE`S MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN
THE TWO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE
UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND IS
LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO SHOW
A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE HIGHER
THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO THE
SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.
-PETRUCELLI

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
MODERATE TURBULENCE ALONG AND ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE CASCADES AND
GUSTY WINDS AT KLMT THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS RETURN ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AND IT`S POSSIBLE IT COULD DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW IFR CIGS AT
KRBG, BUT IT DIDN`T SHOW IT YESTERDAY EITHER AND LOW CIGS FORMED
AROUND 13Z. FOR NOW KEPT IT IN THE TAF, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL WANT
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS. -PETRUCELLI

.MARINE...A VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. THE SWELL HAS FINALLY ARRIVED AT BUOY 46002 WHERE IT
PEAKED AT 23 FEET 16 SECONDS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. SWELL DECAY
TOOLS SHOW THAT IT WILL STILL BE AT AROUND 20 FEET WITH PERIODS
LENGTHENING TO AROUND 18 SECONDS WHEN IT ARRIVES AT THE COAST
OVERNIGHT, SO THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WAS EXTENDED ALL THE WAY
TO THE COAST. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY BREAKERS
OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED AT DEPTHS
OF AROUND 850 FEET OR LESS COULD BE RELOCATED OR DAMAGED. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN AT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL MORE
SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS
SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5
     PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$







000
FXUS66 KPDT 200212
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
715 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN IMPACT WAS TO BRING A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WEST WINDS. THESE WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WAS LIMITED MAINLY TO THE CASCADES WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
BLUES. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WITH DECREASING WIND AND CLOUDS AND A COLD
AIRMASS OVERHEAD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S MOST
LOCATIONS. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN. THE COLD
UNSTABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.  94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 450 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE RAIN REACHING TOO FAR TO THE EAST DUE TO RAIN
SHADOWING. THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MAY PICK UP SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN THE WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST ON
MONDAY...TURNING THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
PRECIPITATION UP TO THE CASCADES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW INLAND FOR
MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500-4000
FEET. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT
THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DMH

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT  A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW LEVEL STARTS OUT
NEAR 3500-4500 FT EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN LOWERS TO AROUND
3000-3500 FT OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT INTO IDAHO AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY FOR DECREASING POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND AND USHERS IN A WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE CASCADE CRESTS
AND THEN ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  POLAN

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCT-BKN 6000-10000 FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY  CLEARING
SKIES BY LATE THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 20-25 KTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 28-36 KTS. WINDS DIMINISHING LATER THIS
EVENING BECOMING DRAINAGE WINDS 8-12 KTS BY 09Z/20TH, EXCEPT FOR
WINDS AT KPDT, WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
WHICH WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AT 10-20 KTS FINALLY BACKING TO
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS OF 6-10 KTS BY AROUND 13Z/20TH.  PRESSURE
GRADIENT REORIENTS ITSELF FROM A WESTERLY GRADIENT THIS EVENING TO A
NORTHERLY GRADIENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NORTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  64  41  67 /  10   0   0  10
ALW  40  64  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  39  67  43  71 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  34  65  40  67 /  10   0   0  20
HRI  36  67  41  70 /  10   0   0  10
ELN  36  64  39  65 /  20   0   0  20
RDM  24  66  35  66 /  10   0   0  10
LGD  34  61  38  67 /  20   0   0  10
GCD  30  61  35  65 /  10   0   0  10
DLS  40  68  45  68 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 200212
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
715 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN IMPACT WAS TO BRING A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WEST WINDS. THESE WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WAS LIMITED MAINLY TO THE CASCADES WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
BLUES. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING THEN
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WITH DECREASING WIND AND CLOUDS AND A COLD
AIRMASS OVERHEAD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S MOST
LOCATIONS. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN. THE COLD
UNSTABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.  94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 450 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE RAIN REACHING TOO FAR TO THE EAST DUE TO RAIN
SHADOWING. THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MAY PICK UP SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN THE WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST ON
MONDAY...TURNING THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
PRECIPITATION UP TO THE CASCADES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW INLAND FOR
MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500-4000
FEET. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT
THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DMH

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT  A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW LEVEL STARTS OUT
NEAR 3500-4500 FT EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN LOWERS TO AROUND
3000-3500 FT OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT INTO IDAHO AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY FOR DECREASING POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND AND USHERS IN A WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE CASCADE CRESTS
AND THEN ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  POLAN

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCT-BKN 6000-10000 FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY  CLEARING
SKIES BY LATE THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 20-25 KTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 28-36 KTS. WINDS DIMINISHING LATER THIS
EVENING BECOMING DRAINAGE WINDS 8-12 KTS BY 09Z/20TH, EXCEPT FOR
WINDS AT KPDT, WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
WHICH WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AT 10-20 KTS FINALLY BACKING TO
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS OF 6-10 KTS BY AROUND 13Z/20TH.  PRESSURE
GRADIENT REORIENTS ITSELF FROM A WESTERLY GRADIENT THIS EVENING TO A
NORTHERLY GRADIENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NORTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  64  41  67 /  10   0   0  10
ALW  40  64  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  39  67  43  71 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  34  65  40  67 /  10   0   0  20
HRI  36  67  41  70 /  10   0   0  10
ELN  36  64  39  65 /  20   0   0  20
RDM  24  66  35  66 /  10   0   0  10
LGD  34  61  38  67 /  20   0   0  10
GCD  30  61  35  65 /  10   0   0  10
DLS  40  68  45  68 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/





000
FXUS66 KPDT 192350 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
450 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE RAIN REACHING TOO FAR TO THE EAST DUE TO RAIN
SHADOWING. THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MAY PICK UP SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN THE WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST ON
MONDAY...TURNING THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
PRECIPITATION UP TO THE CASCADES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW INLAND FOR
MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500-4000
FEET. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT
THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DMH

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT  A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW LEVEL STARTS OUT
NEAR 3500-4500 FT EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN LOWERS TO AROUND
3000-3500 FT OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT INTO IDAHO AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY FOR DECREASING POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND AND USHERS IN A WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE CASCADE CRESTS
AND THEN ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCT-BKN 6000-10000 FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY  CLEARING
SKIES BY LATE THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 20-25 KTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 28-36 KTS. WINDS DIMINISHING LATER THIS
EVENING BECOMING DRAINAGE WINDS 8-12 KTS BY 09Z/20TH, EXCEPT FOR
WINDS AT KPDT, WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
WHICH WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AT 10-20 KTS FINALLY BACKING TO
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS OF 6-10 KTS BY AROUND 13Z/20TH.  PRESSURE
GRADIENT REORIENTS ITSELF FROM A WESTERLY GRADIENT THIS EVENING TO A
NORTHERLY GRADIENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NORTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  65  41  68 /  10   0   0  10
ALW  40  65  46  71 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  39  68  43  72 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  34  66  40  68 /  20   0   0  20
HRI  36  68  41  71 /  10   0   0  10
ELN  36  65  39  66 /  20   0   0  20
RDM  24  67  35  67 /  10   0   0  10
LGD  34  62  38  68 /  20   0   0  10
GCD  30  62  35  66 /  10   0   0  10
DLS  40  69  45  69 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

84/99/99







000
FXUS66 KPDT 192350 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
450 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE RAIN REACHING TOO FAR TO THE EAST DUE TO RAIN
SHADOWING. THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MAY PICK UP SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN THE WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST ON
MONDAY...TURNING THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
PRECIPITATION UP TO THE CASCADES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW INLAND FOR
MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500-4000
FEET. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT
THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DMH

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT  A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW LEVEL STARTS OUT
NEAR 3500-4500 FT EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN LOWERS TO AROUND
3000-3500 FT OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT INTO IDAHO AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY FOR DECREASING POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND AND USHERS IN A WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE CASCADE CRESTS
AND THEN ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCT-BKN 6000-10000 FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY  CLEARING
SKIES BY LATE THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 20-25 KTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 28-36 KTS. WINDS DIMINISHING LATER THIS
EVENING BECOMING DRAINAGE WINDS 8-12 KTS BY 09Z/20TH, EXCEPT FOR
WINDS AT KPDT, WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
WHICH WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AT 10-20 KTS FINALLY BACKING TO
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS OF 6-10 KTS BY AROUND 13Z/20TH.  PRESSURE
GRADIENT REORIENTS ITSELF FROM A WESTERLY GRADIENT THIS EVENING TO A
NORTHERLY GRADIENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NORTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  65  41  68 /  10   0   0  10
ALW  40  65  46  71 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  39  68  43  72 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  34  66  40  68 /  20   0   0  20
HRI  36  68  41  71 /  10   0   0  10
ELN  36  65  39  66 /  20   0   0  20
RDM  24  67  35  67 /  10   0   0  10
LGD  34  62  38  68 /  20   0   0  10
GCD  30  62  35  66 /  10   0   0  10
DLS  40  69  45  69 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

84/99/99







000
FXUS66 KPDT 192350 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
450 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE RAIN REACHING TOO FAR TO THE EAST DUE TO RAIN
SHADOWING. THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MAY PICK UP SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN THE WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST ON
MONDAY...TURNING THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
PRECIPITATION UP TO THE CASCADES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW INLAND FOR
MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500-4000
FEET. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT
THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DMH

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT  A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW LEVEL STARTS OUT
NEAR 3500-4500 FT EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN LOWERS TO AROUND
3000-3500 FT OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT INTO IDAHO AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY FOR DECREASING POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND AND USHERS IN A WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE CASCADE CRESTS
AND THEN ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCT-BKN 6000-10000 FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY  CLEARING
SKIES BY LATE THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 20-25 KTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 28-36 KTS. WINDS DIMINISHING LATER THIS
EVENING BECOMING DRAINAGE WINDS 8-12 KTS BY 09Z/20TH, EXCEPT FOR
WINDS AT KPDT, WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
WHICH WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AT 10-20 KTS FINALLY BACKING TO
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS OF 6-10 KTS BY AROUND 13Z/20TH.  PRESSURE
GRADIENT REORIENTS ITSELF FROM A WESTERLY GRADIENT THIS EVENING TO A
NORTHERLY GRADIENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NORTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  65  41  68 /  10   0   0  10
ALW  40  65  46  71 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  39  68  43  72 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  34  66  40  68 /  20   0   0  20
HRI  36  68  41  71 /  10   0   0  10
ELN  36  65  39  66 /  20   0   0  20
RDM  24  67  35  67 /  10   0   0  10
LGD  34  62  38  68 /  20   0   0  10
GCD  30  62  35  66 /  10   0   0  10
DLS  40  69  45  69 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

84/99/99







000
FXUS66 KPDT 192350 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
450 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE RAIN REACHING TOO FAR TO THE EAST DUE TO RAIN
SHADOWING. THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MAY PICK UP SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN THE WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST ON
MONDAY...TURNING THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
PRECIPITATION UP TO THE CASCADES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW INLAND FOR
MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500-4000
FEET. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT
THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DMH

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT  A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW LEVEL STARTS OUT
NEAR 3500-4500 FT EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN LOWERS TO AROUND
3000-3500 FT OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT INTO IDAHO AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY FOR DECREASING POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND AND USHERS IN A WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE CASCADE CRESTS
AND THEN ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA AND STALLS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCT-BKN 6000-10000 FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY  CLEARING
SKIES BY LATE THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 20-25 KTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 28-36 KTS. WINDS DIMINISHING LATER THIS
EVENING BECOMING DRAINAGE WINDS 8-12 KTS BY 09Z/20TH, EXCEPT FOR
WINDS AT KPDT, WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
WHICH WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AT 10-20 KTS FINALLY BACKING TO
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS OF 6-10 KTS BY AROUND 13Z/20TH.  PRESSURE
GRADIENT REORIENTS ITSELF FROM A WESTERLY GRADIENT THIS EVENING TO A
NORTHERLY GRADIENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NORTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  65  41  68 /  10   0   0  10
ALW  40  65  46  71 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  39  68  43  72 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  34  66  40  68 /  20   0   0  20
HRI  36  68  41  71 /  10   0   0  10
ELN  36  65  39  66 /  20   0   0  20
RDM  24  67  35  67 /  10   0   0  10
LGD  34  62  38  68 /  20   0   0  10
GCD  30  62  35  66 /  10   0   0  10
DLS  40  69  45  69 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

84/99/99







000
FXUS66 KPQR 192200
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
259 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS.... SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST . WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH
COAST ZONES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD CALIFORNIA FOR
MORE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR MORE RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED
AS MORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
AND NOW ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A STEADY STREAM OF POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS. SATELLITE DEPICTS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS OFFSHORE
WORKING ITS WAY THIS DIRECTION AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS THE MOIST
FLOW HITS LAND. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODESTLY STEEP. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY
NOSING INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR FLORENCE AND NEWPORT.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...EXPECT A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...BUT THE LOWEST
LEVELS STABILIZE ENOUGH TO MENTION PATCHY FOG...FAVORED MOST FOR
POINTS FARTHER SOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING...TEMPERATURES FALL INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS AND THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU
HEAD INTO THE VALLEY.

FLAT RIDGING TONIGHT AMPLIFIES SOME ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITHWARMER TEMPS AFTER
THE COOL START. MID TO UPPER 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
FILTERED SUNSHINE AS HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH IN AHEAD OF A COMPACT
CIRCULATION OUT NEAR 46N/145W AT THE BASE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
LOW. THIS CIRCULATION WILL HEAD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SA THIS IS HAPPENING
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN A PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA...BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES TO SOME DEGREE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AIR MASS AT BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS
DIGGING THE TROUGH S PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON
TO CHANCE CATEGORY INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT.

SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS
COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
MOST ORGANIZED PERIOD OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND THE
PASSESMID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD. NORMALLY -28C TO POSSIBLY COOLER AT 500 TEMPS BRINGS
CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED THUNDER. MAIN FORCING PASSES BY SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A THUNDER MENTION YET...BUT CAN SEE IT BEING
ADDED A FUTURE TIME. /KMD

.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WE START OUT FAIRLY QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE
RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL
LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING WITH A MIX OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
2000 TO 3000 FT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
DECREASE ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS IN THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BRINGS STABLE CONDITIONS WHICH MAY LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS SUN MORNING. HIGHER TERRAIN FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED THROUGH

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2500-3000 FT THROUGH 00Z OR SO. AFTER 12Z SUN MODEL RH
FIELDS AND SOUNDING SUGGEST A CLOUD LAYER AROUND 2500 FT COULD
DEVELOP IN THE AREA. IF IT DOES FORM THE LAYER WOULD DISSIPATE BY
18Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...POST FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KT CONTINUE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRENDS IS FOR THE WINDS TO DECREASE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND THAT APPEARS TO BE
HAPPENING. WILL KEEP CURRENT ADVISORIES UNCHANGED. A RELATIVELY
QUIET PERIOD STARTS THE WORK WEEK WITH WEAK SYSTEM NEARING THE
WATERS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED OR
THU...LIKELY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT WINDS.

A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUN. ENP WAVE
MODEL IS DOING WELL BASED ON COMPARISON WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS.
BUOY 46036 WHICH ABOUT 500 NM OFF THE WA COAST WAS 31 FT WITH A
16 SECOND PERIOD AT 18Z. THIS WAS WITHIN 1 FT OF THE ENP OUTPUT.
THE ENP ALSO COMPARED WELL WITH BUOY 46002 - ABOUT 300 NM OFF THE
SOUTH OREGON COAST - MEASURING 15 FT AT 18Z.

EXPECT SEAS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS
WHEN THE SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS THIS EVENING...AND PEAKING
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 5 AM SUN. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT SUN
NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
COASTS. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 6 PM AND
10 PM AND LIKELY PEAK NEAR 20 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN
MORNING THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE IN OR NEAR
THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM PDT
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
     UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KPQR 192200
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
259 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS.... SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST . WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH
COAST ZONES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD CALIFORNIA FOR
MORE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR MORE RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED
AS MORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
AND NOW ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A STEADY STREAM OF POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS. SATELLITE DEPICTS STILL QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS OFFSHORE
WORKING ITS WAY THIS DIRECTION AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS THE MOIST
FLOW HITS LAND. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODESTLY STEEP. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY
NOSING INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR FLORENCE AND NEWPORT.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...EXPECT A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...BUT THE LOWEST
LEVELS STABILIZE ENOUGH TO MENTION PATCHY FOG...FAVORED MOST FOR
POINTS FARTHER SOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING...TEMPERATURES FALL INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 40S...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS AND THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU
HEAD INTO THE VALLEY.

FLAT RIDGING TONIGHT AMPLIFIES SOME ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITHWARMER TEMPS AFTER
THE COOL START. MID TO UPPER 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
FILTERED SUNSHINE AS HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH IN AHEAD OF A COMPACT
CIRCULATION OUT NEAR 46N/145W AT THE BASE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA UPPER
LOW. THIS CIRCULATION WILL HEAD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SA THIS IS HAPPENING
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN A PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA...BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT SHOWERS
IN THE CASCADES TO SOME DEGREE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AIR MASS AT BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS
DIGGING THE TROUGH S PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON
TO CHANCE CATEGORY INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST CLOSER TO THE
FRONT.

SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS
COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
MOST ORGANIZED PERIOD OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND THE
PASSESMID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE COLD POOL MOVES
OVERHEAD. NORMALLY -28C TO POSSIBLY COOLER AT 500 TEMPS BRINGS
CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED THUNDER. MAIN FORCING PASSES BY SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A THUNDER MENTION YET...BUT CAN SEE IT BEING
ADDED A FUTURE TIME. /KMD

.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WE START OUT FAIRLY QUIET TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
STEADY RAIN BEGINNING WED OR EARLY THU. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN CAME IN
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PAST RUNS...BRINGING RAIN ONSHORE WED
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS AND THE MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES HOLD THE
RAIN OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT WED INTO THU. AT ANY RATE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LOOKING FAIRLY HIGH SO WE WILL
LIKELY GET A PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF RAIN THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD AND
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NE PAC FOR FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES. PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING WITH A MIX OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
2000 TO 3000 FT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
DECREASE ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS IN THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BRINGS STABLE CONDITIONS WHICH MAY LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS SUN MORNING. HIGHER TERRAIN FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED THROUGH

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2500-3000 FT THROUGH 00Z OR SO. AFTER 12Z SUN MODEL RH
FIELDS AND SOUNDING SUGGEST A CLOUD LAYER AROUND 2500 FT COULD
DEVELOP IN THE AREA. IF IT DOES FORM THE LAYER WOULD DISSIPATE BY
18Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...POST FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KT CONTINUE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRENDS IS FOR THE WINDS TO DECREASE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND THAT APPEARS TO BE
HAPPENING. WILL KEEP CURRENT ADVISORIES UNCHANGED. A RELATIVELY
QUIET PERIOD STARTS THE WORK WEEK WITH WEAK SYSTEM NEARING THE
WATERS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT ARRIVES LATE WED OR
THU...LIKELY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT WINDS.

A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUN. ENP WAVE
MODEL IS DOING WELL BASED ON COMPARISON WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS.
BUOY 46036 WHICH ABOUT 500 NM OFF THE WA COAST WAS 31 FT WITH A
16 SECOND PERIOD AT 18Z. THIS WAS WITHIN 1 FT OF THE ENP OUTPUT.
THE ENP ALSO COMPARED WELL WITH BUOY 46002 - ABOUT 300 NM OFF THE
SOUTH OREGON COAST - MEASURING 15 FT AT 18Z.

EXPECT SEAS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS
WHEN THE SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS THIS EVENING...AND PEAKING
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 5 AM SUN. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT SUN
NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
COASTS. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN 6 PM AND
10 PM AND LIKELY PEAK NEAR 20 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN
MORNING THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE IN OR NEAR
THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM PDT
     MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
     UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KMFR 192146
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
246 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...BEHIND A WEAK FRONT EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY. THEN A MORE ACTIVE AND MOIST PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY, A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND TO THE CASCADES
AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS DOUGLAS
COUNTY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES, ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTY DUE
TO COLD TEMPERATURES IMPACTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS FORECAST A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ON MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA...THEN PUSH INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODELS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE CASCADES AND INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. CURRENTLY HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES BUT KEPT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
INLAND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST.

THEN MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM AROUND 6000 TO
7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING DOWN TO 5000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER TO AROUND 4000 FEET TUESDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN
SHOWERS EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

A COLD SHOWERY AIR MASS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO PLACE. ALSO THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.
ALSO, THE NAM SHOWS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS.

MODELS SHOW INCREASED VARIABILITY CONCERNING HOW MUCH SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES A WEAKER RIDGE WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OFFSHORE, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
OREGON AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN AND WE COULD CATCH A
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT
COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND THERE`S MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN
THE TWO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE
UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND IS
LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO SHOW
A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE HIGHER
THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO THE
SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
MODERATE TURBULENCE ALONG AND ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE CASCADES AND
GUSTY WINDS AT KLMT THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS RETURN ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AND IT`S POSSIBLE IT COULD DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW IFR CIGS AT
KRBG, BUT IT DIDN`T SHOW IT YESTERDAY EITHER AND LOW CIGS FORMED
AROUND 13Z. FOR NOW KEPT IT IN THE TAF, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL WANT
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL DECREASE BRIEFLY
THIS EVENING AS WIND WAVES SUBSIDE, HOWEVER, A VERY HEAVY LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND SEAS
WILL BECOME VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SUNDAY. SWELL WILL DECAY SOME
PRIOR TO REACHING THE INNER WATERS...SO THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST...BUT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE INNER WATERS. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL
ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY BREAKERS OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE.
FISHING GEAR LOCATED AT DEPTHS OF AROUND 750 FEET OR LESS COULD BE
RELOCATED OR DAMAGED. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT
WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC






000
FXUS66 KMFR 192146
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
246 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...BEHIND A WEAK FRONT EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY. THEN A MORE ACTIVE AND MOIST PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY, A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND TO THE CASCADES
AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS DOUGLAS
COUNTY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES, ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTY DUE
TO COLD TEMPERATURES IMPACTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS FORECAST A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ON MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA...THEN PUSH INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODELS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE CASCADES AND INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. CURRENTLY HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES BUT KEPT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
INLAND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST.

THEN MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM AROUND 6000 TO
7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING DOWN TO 5000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER TO AROUND 4000 FEET TUESDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN
SHOWERS EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

A COLD SHOWERY AIR MASS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO PLACE. ALSO THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.
ALSO, THE NAM SHOWS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS.

MODELS SHOW INCREASED VARIABILITY CONCERNING HOW MUCH SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES A WEAKER RIDGE WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OFFSHORE, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
OREGON AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN AND WE COULD CATCH A
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT
COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND THERE`S MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN
THE TWO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE
UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND IS
LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO SHOW
A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE HIGHER
THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO THE
SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
MODERATE TURBULENCE ALONG AND ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE CASCADES AND
GUSTY WINDS AT KLMT THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS RETURN ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AND IT`S POSSIBLE IT COULD DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW IFR CIGS AT
KRBG, BUT IT DIDN`T SHOW IT YESTERDAY EITHER AND LOW CIGS FORMED
AROUND 13Z. FOR NOW KEPT IT IN THE TAF, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL WANT
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL DECREASE BRIEFLY
THIS EVENING AS WIND WAVES SUBSIDE, HOWEVER, A VERY HEAVY LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND SEAS
WILL BECOME VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SUNDAY. SWELL WILL DECAY SOME
PRIOR TO REACHING THE INNER WATERS...SO THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST...BUT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE INNER WATERS. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL
ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY BREAKERS OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE.
FISHING GEAR LOCATED AT DEPTHS OF AROUND 750 FEET OR LESS COULD BE
RELOCATED OR DAMAGED. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT
WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC







000
FXUS66 KPDT 192130
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE RAIN REACHING TOO FAR TO THE EAST DUE TO RAIN
SHADOWING. THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MAY PICK UP SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN THE WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST ON
MONDAY...TURNING THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
PRECIPITATION UP TO THE CASCADES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW INLAND FOR
MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 3500-4000
FEET. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT
THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DMH

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT  A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW STARTS OUT NEAR
3500-4500 FT EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN LOWERS TO AROUND
3000-3500 FT OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT INTO IDAHO AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY FOR DECREASING POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND AND USHERS IN A WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE CASCADE CRESTS
AND THEN ENTERS FORECAST AREA AND STALLS OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
10000-20000 FT AGL THIS MORNING WILL LOWER TO BKN 4000-7000 FEET AGL
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE 15-25 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-35
KTS IN THE  AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING BECOMING
DRAINAGE WINDS 8-12 KTS BY 09Z/20TH, EXCEPT FOR WINDS AT KPDT, WHICH
WILL BE SLOWER TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
WEST AT 10-20 KTS FINALLY BACKING TO SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS 6-10
KTS BY AROUND 13Z/20TH.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  37  65  41  68 /  10   0   0  10
ALW  40  65  46  71 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  39  68  43  72 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  34  66  40  68 /  20   0   0  20
HRI  36  68  41  71 /  10   0   0  10
ELN  36  65  39  66 /  20   0   0  20
RDM  24  67  35  67 /  10   0   0  10
LGD  34  62  38  68 /  20   0   0  10
GCD  30  62  35  66 /  10   0   0  10
DLS  40  69  45  69 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

84/99/99












000
FXUS65 KBOI 192030
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WARM AND DRY S-SW FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S. COLD FRONT
NEAR THE CASCADES IN OREGON IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH SE
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND SW IDAHO THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...GUSTS TO 35 MPH WITH THE FROPA. TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS 7-9 PM IN BOISE AND AROUND MIDNIGHT IN TWIN
FALLS/JEROME. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED TO
NORTH OF BAKER AND MCCALL. COOLER AND DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL FOLLOW
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6-12 DEGREES LOWER...BUT STILL
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS EAST OF
BOISE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL /60S AND 70S/ AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. A SMALL AREA OF
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS SOUTH OF TWIN FALLS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER ON
THE WAY FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES COLDER TUESDAY FROM
MONDAY TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4000 FT MSL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE COMING BACK UP TO AROUND 6000 FT MSL FOR
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THURSDAY LOOKS DRIER AS THE
REGION TRANSITIONS THROUGH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE INTO ANOTHER POTENT
PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH ARRIVES BY FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS EXCEPT WESTERLY 15-25KT IN EASTERN OREGON. DRY COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH KBKE AROUND 00Z SUN...KBOI BETWEEN 02-04Z...KTWF
BETWEEN 06-08Z. EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH
FRONT UP TO 30KT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF KMYL 03-12Z SUN. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET
MSL...SW 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/DD
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 192030
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WARM AND DRY S-SW FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S. COLD FRONT
NEAR THE CASCADES IN OREGON IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH SE
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND SW IDAHO THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...GUSTS TO 35 MPH WITH THE FROPA. TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS 7-9 PM IN BOISE AND AROUND MIDNIGHT IN TWIN
FALLS/JEROME. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED TO
NORTH OF BAKER AND MCCALL. COOLER AND DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL FOLLOW
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6-12 DEGREES LOWER...BUT STILL
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS EAST OF
BOISE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL /60S AND 70S/ AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. A SMALL AREA OF
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS SOUTH OF TWIN FALLS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER ON
THE WAY FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES COLDER TUESDAY FROM
MONDAY TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4000 FT MSL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE COMING BACK UP TO AROUND 6000 FT MSL FOR
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THURSDAY LOOKS DRIER AS THE
REGION TRANSITIONS THROUGH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE INTO ANOTHER POTENT
PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH ARRIVES BY FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS EXCEPT WESTERLY 15-25KT IN EASTERN OREGON. DRY COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH KBKE AROUND 00Z SUN...KBOI BETWEEN 02-04Z...KTWF
BETWEEN 06-08Z. EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH
FRONT UP TO 30KT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF KMYL 03-12Z SUN. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET
MSL...SW 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/DD
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 192030
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WARM AND DRY S-SW FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S. COLD FRONT
NEAR THE CASCADES IN OREGON IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH SE
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND SW IDAHO THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...GUSTS TO 35 MPH WITH THE FROPA. TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS 7-9 PM IN BOISE AND AROUND MIDNIGHT IN TWIN
FALLS/JEROME. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED TO
NORTH OF BAKER AND MCCALL. COOLER AND DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL FOLLOW
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6-12 DEGREES LOWER...BUT STILL
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS EAST OF
BOISE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL /60S AND 70S/ AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. A SMALL AREA OF
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS SOUTH OF TWIN FALLS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER ON
THE WAY FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES COLDER TUESDAY FROM
MONDAY TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4000 FT MSL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE COMING BACK UP TO AROUND 6000 FT MSL FOR
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THURSDAY LOOKS DRIER AS THE
REGION TRANSITIONS THROUGH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE INTO ANOTHER POTENT
PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH ARRIVES BY FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS EXCEPT WESTERLY 15-25KT IN EASTERN OREGON. DRY COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH KBKE AROUND 00Z SUN...KBOI BETWEEN 02-04Z...KTWF
BETWEEN 06-08Z. EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH
FRONT UP TO 30KT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF KMYL 03-12Z SUN. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET
MSL...SW 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/DD
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 192030
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WARM AND DRY S-SW FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S. COLD FRONT
NEAR THE CASCADES IN OREGON IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH SE
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND SW IDAHO THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...GUSTS TO 35 MPH WITH THE FROPA. TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS 7-9 PM IN BOISE AND AROUND MIDNIGHT IN TWIN
FALLS/JEROME. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED TO
NORTH OF BAKER AND MCCALL. COOLER AND DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL FOLLOW
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6-12 DEGREES LOWER...BUT STILL
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS EAST OF
BOISE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL /60S AND 70S/ AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. A SMALL AREA OF
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS SOUTH OF TWIN FALLS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER ON
THE WAY FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES COLDER TUESDAY FROM
MONDAY TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4000 FT MSL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE COMING BACK UP TO AROUND 6000 FT MSL FOR
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THURSDAY LOOKS DRIER AS THE
REGION TRANSITIONS THROUGH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE INTO ANOTHER POTENT
PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH ARRIVES BY FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS EXCEPT WESTERLY 15-25KT IN EASTERN OREGON. DRY COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH KBKE AROUND 00Z SUN...KBOI BETWEEN 02-04Z...KTWF
BETWEEN 06-08Z. EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH
FRONT UP TO 30KT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF KMYL 03-12Z SUN. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET
MSL...SW 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/DD
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS66 KPQR 191635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
932 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A  COLD FRONT AT THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND
TODAY...CROSSING THE CASCADES BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AS WELL. WEAK HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON
EASTER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD CALIFORNIA FOR MORE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN
OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AS MORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES. &&

.MORNING UPDATE...QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB (10K FT OR SO)
ON THE MORNING SALEM SOUNDING BUT LIFT FROM INCOMING MODEST
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND UPPER JET IS BEGINNING TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. LIKELY SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WHICH IS NOW NEARING THE WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY. THE BEST DYNAMICS GRAZE THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE MORE
MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP IS NOT VERY LONG
LASTING AND DRY AIR INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP TOTALS...SO
LIKE THE OCCASIONAL RAIN WORDING TODAY WITH TRANSITION TO SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WILL NOT BE A HUGE SOAKER INALND.
SUBSIDENCE RETUNS QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT...SO NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND
THIS FRONT AGAIN WITH OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE NORTH
STANDING THE BEST CHANCE. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WAS SEEN ON SATELLITE ABOUT 200 MI OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT MORNING...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND ON TRACK TO
REACH THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS MAINLY MID AND LOW LEVEL
WITH THE FRONT...MATCHING THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGESTING
MOISTURE GENERALLY BELOW 700MB. WHILE MOISTURE IS ON THE SHALLOW
SIDE...THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS MODERATELY STRONG AND IS SYNCHED
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PROVIDING WELL TIMED LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS
HIGH TODAY FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALTHOUGH THE DURATION MAY BE ON
THE SHORT SIDE. SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
ONSHORE FAVORING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED CASCADES
AND COAST RANGE.

AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...AND AN INITIALLY
FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WILL SEE DRY WEATHER RETURN ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS AGAIN FOR SUN. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS THE NEXT TROUGH IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DIGS OFFSHORE AND THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES BUILDS. AS THE
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW BACKS TO THE SSW MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS AT
BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS DIGGING THE TROUGH S
PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON TO CHANCE CATEGORY
INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AS A FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING
HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL ORIENT THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE AS THE UPPER JET NOSES
INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW...MODELS SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES...AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HOVER IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG/KM RANGE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. AFTER THE FIRST LARGE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A BREAK IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. PCPN HAS REACHED THE COAST WITH LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS IN
THE 2500 TO 3500 FT RANGE. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO INLAND TAF SITES
AROUND 18Z WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. NAM RH FIELDS AT 925 MB
IMPLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAYBE OVERDONE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT SO COULD SEE
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG SUN MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. THEN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500-3000 FT THROUGH 00Z OR SO.
EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WHICH
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH ASHORE BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING.

A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
SUN. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN
THE SWELL ARRIVES AROUND 11 PM TONIGHT...AND PEAKING THROUGH 5 AM
SUN. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT
EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING
FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. IT APPEARS THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL ALSO MEET CRITERIA BASED ON POTENTIAL
IMPACTS...SO WILL ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. ALL
INDIVIDUALS ALONG THE BEACHES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 191635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
932 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A  COLD FRONT AT THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND
TODAY...CROSSING THE CASCADES BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AS WELL. WEAK HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON
EASTER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD CALIFORNIA FOR MORE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN
OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AS MORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES. &&

.MORNING UPDATE...QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB (10K FT OR SO)
ON THE MORNING SALEM SOUNDING BUT LIFT FROM INCOMING MODEST
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND UPPER JET IS BEGINNING TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. LIKELY SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WHICH IS NOW NEARING THE WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY. THE BEST DYNAMICS GRAZE THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE MORE
MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP IS NOT VERY LONG
LASTING AND DRY AIR INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP TOTALS...SO
LIKE THE OCCASIONAL RAIN WORDING TODAY WITH TRANSITION TO SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WILL NOT BE A HUGE SOAKER INALND.
SUBSIDENCE RETUNS QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT...SO NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND
THIS FRONT AGAIN WITH OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE NORTH
STANDING THE BEST CHANCE. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WAS SEEN ON SATELLITE ABOUT 200 MI OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT MORNING...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND ON TRACK TO
REACH THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS MAINLY MID AND LOW LEVEL
WITH THE FRONT...MATCHING THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGESTING
MOISTURE GENERALLY BELOW 700MB. WHILE MOISTURE IS ON THE SHALLOW
SIDE...THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS MODERATELY STRONG AND IS SYNCHED
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PROVIDING WELL TIMED LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS
HIGH TODAY FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALTHOUGH THE DURATION MAY BE ON
THE SHORT SIDE. SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
ONSHORE FAVORING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED CASCADES
AND COAST RANGE.

AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...AND AN INITIALLY
FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WILL SEE DRY WEATHER RETURN ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS AGAIN FOR SUN. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS THE NEXT TROUGH IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DIGS OFFSHORE AND THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES BUILDS. AS THE
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW BACKS TO THE SSW MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS AT
BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS DIGGING THE TROUGH S
PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON TO CHANCE CATEGORY
INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AS A FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING
HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL ORIENT THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE AS THE UPPER JET NOSES
INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW...MODELS SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES...AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HOVER IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG/KM RANGE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. AFTER THE FIRST LARGE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A BREAK IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. PCPN HAS REACHED THE COAST WITH LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS IN
THE 2500 TO 3500 FT RANGE. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO INLAND TAF SITES
AROUND 18Z WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. NAM RH FIELDS AT 925 MB
IMPLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAYBE OVERDONE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT SO COULD SEE
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG SUN MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. THEN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500-3000 FT THROUGH 00Z OR SO.
EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WHICH
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH ASHORE BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING.

A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
SUN. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN
THE SWELL ARRIVES AROUND 11 PM TONIGHT...AND PEAKING THROUGH 5 AM
SUN. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT
EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING
FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. IT APPEARS THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL ALSO MEET CRITERIA BASED ON POTENTIAL
IMPACTS...SO WILL ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. ALL
INDIVIDUALS ALONG THE BEACHES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 191635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
932 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A  COLD FRONT AT THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND
TODAY...CROSSING THE CASCADES BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AS WELL. WEAK HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON
EASTER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD CALIFORNIA FOR MORE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN
OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AS MORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES. &&

.MORNING UPDATE...QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB (10K FT OR SO)
ON THE MORNING SALEM SOUNDING BUT LIFT FROM INCOMING MODEST
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND UPPER JET IS BEGINNING TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. LIKELY SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WHICH IS NOW NEARING THE WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY. THE BEST DYNAMICS GRAZE THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE MORE
MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP IS NOT VERY LONG
LASTING AND DRY AIR INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP TOTALS...SO
LIKE THE OCCASIONAL RAIN WORDING TODAY WITH TRANSITION TO SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WILL NOT BE A HUGE SOAKER INALND.
SUBSIDENCE RETUNS QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT...SO NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND
THIS FRONT AGAIN WITH OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE NORTH
STANDING THE BEST CHANCE. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WAS SEEN ON SATELLITE ABOUT 200 MI OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT MORNING...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND ON TRACK TO
REACH THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS MAINLY MID AND LOW LEVEL
WITH THE FRONT...MATCHING THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGESTING
MOISTURE GENERALLY BELOW 700MB. WHILE MOISTURE IS ON THE SHALLOW
SIDE...THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS MODERATELY STRONG AND IS SYNCHED
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PROVIDING WELL TIMED LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS
HIGH TODAY FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALTHOUGH THE DURATION MAY BE ON
THE SHORT SIDE. SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
ONSHORE FAVORING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED CASCADES
AND COAST RANGE.

AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...AND AN INITIALLY
FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WILL SEE DRY WEATHER RETURN ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS AGAIN FOR SUN. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS THE NEXT TROUGH IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DIGS OFFSHORE AND THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES BUILDS. AS THE
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW BACKS TO THE SSW MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS AT
BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS DIGGING THE TROUGH S
PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON TO CHANCE CATEGORY
INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AS A FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING
HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL ORIENT THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE AS THE UPPER JET NOSES
INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW...MODELS SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES...AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HOVER IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG/KM RANGE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. AFTER THE FIRST LARGE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A BREAK IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. PCPN HAS REACHED THE COAST WITH LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS IN
THE 2500 TO 3500 FT RANGE. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO INLAND TAF SITES
AROUND 18Z WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. NAM RH FIELDS AT 925 MB
IMPLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAYBE OVERDONE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT SO COULD SEE
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG SUN MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. THEN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500-3000 FT THROUGH 00Z OR SO.
EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WHICH
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH ASHORE BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING.

A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
SUN. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN
THE SWELL ARRIVES AROUND 11 PM TONIGHT...AND PEAKING THROUGH 5 AM
SUN. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT
EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING
FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. IT APPEARS THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL ALSO MEET CRITERIA BASED ON POTENTIAL
IMPACTS...SO WILL ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. ALL
INDIVIDUALS ALONG THE BEACHES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 191635
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
932 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A  COLD FRONT AT THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND
TODAY...CROSSING THE CASCADES BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AS WELL. WEAK HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON
EASTER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD CALIFORNIA FOR MORE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN
OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AS MORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES. &&

.MORNING UPDATE...QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB (10K FT OR SO)
ON THE MORNING SALEM SOUNDING BUT LIFT FROM INCOMING MODEST
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND UPPER JET IS BEGINNING TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS. LIKELY SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WHICH IS NOW NEARING THE WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY. THE BEST DYNAMICS GRAZE THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE MORE
MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP IS NOT VERY LONG
LASTING AND DRY AIR INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP TOTALS...SO
LIKE THE OCCASIONAL RAIN WORDING TODAY WITH TRANSITION TO SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT WILL NOT BE A HUGE SOAKER INALND.
SUBSIDENCE RETUNS QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT...SO NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND
THIS FRONT AGAIN WITH OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE NORTH
STANDING THE BEST CHANCE. /KMD

&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WAS SEEN ON SATELLITE ABOUT 200 MI OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT MORNING...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND ON TRACK TO
REACH THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS MAINLY MID AND LOW LEVEL
WITH THE FRONT...MATCHING THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGESTING
MOISTURE GENERALLY BELOW 700MB. WHILE MOISTURE IS ON THE SHALLOW
SIDE...THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS MODERATELY STRONG AND IS SYNCHED
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PROVIDING WELL TIMED LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS
HIGH TODAY FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALTHOUGH THE DURATION MAY BE ON
THE SHORT SIDE. SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
ONSHORE FAVORING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED CASCADES
AND COAST RANGE.

AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...AND AN INITIALLY
FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WILL SEE DRY WEATHER RETURN ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS AGAIN FOR SUN. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS THE NEXT TROUGH IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DIGS OFFSHORE AND THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES BUILDS. AS THE
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW BACKS TO THE SSW MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS AT
BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS DIGGING THE TROUGH S
PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON TO CHANCE CATEGORY
INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AS A FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING
HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL ORIENT THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE AS THE UPPER JET NOSES
INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW...MODELS SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES...AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HOVER IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG/KM RANGE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. AFTER THE FIRST LARGE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A BREAK IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. PCPN HAS REACHED THE COAST WITH LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS IN
THE 2500 TO 3500 FT RANGE. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO INLAND TAF SITES
AROUND 18Z WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. NAM RH FIELDS AT 925 MB
IMPLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAYBE OVERDONE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT SO COULD SEE
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG SUN MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. THEN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500-3000 FT THROUGH 00Z OR SO.
EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WHICH
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH ASHORE BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING.

A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
SUN. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN
THE SWELL ARRIVES AROUND 11 PM TONIGHT...AND PEAKING THROUGH 5 AM
SUN. SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT
EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING
FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. IT APPEARS THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL ALSO MEET CRITERIA BASED ON POTENTIAL
IMPACTS...SO WILL ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. ALL
INDIVIDUALS ALONG THE BEACHES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS65 KBOI 191555
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
955 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL LEAD TO WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON AND SW IDAHO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OF TWIN FALLS WITH THE NEW
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THUS WILL LIMIT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH...SO WILL LIMIT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN
BAKER COUNTY EXTENDING EAST TO FAR NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY. MORNING
UPDATE WILL ALSO INCLUDE LESS CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MOST OF
SE OREGON/SW IDAHO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT E TO
SE THROUGH 18Z BECOMING WESTERLY 10-15KT AFTER 21Z...WITH 15-25KT
IN EASTERN OREGON. DRY COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH KBKE AROUND
00Z SUN...KBOI BETWEEN 02-04Z...KTWF BETWEEN 06-08Z. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS WITH FRONT UP TO 30KT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION NORTH AND EAST
OF KMYL AFTER 03Z SUN. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD SW FLOW TODAY WILL BRING
VALLEY HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. SW WIND GUSTS OVER OREGON AND FAR
SW IDAHO WILL PROBABLY REACH 30 MPH DUE TO THICK MIXED LAYER
TAPPING UPPER LEVEL STRONG WINDS. FLOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM NV
TO SRN TWF COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST...IN LINE WITH NAM. GFS KEEPS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
FARTHER SOUTH OVER NV THOUGH. GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS OVER OREGON
THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT OVER IDAHO 9 PM-3 AM. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
CLOUDINESS SPLITTING OVER SE WA SO WENT WITH DRIER POPS OF
METBC/MAVBC VS. ECEBC SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER HAS SCT SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL IDAHO. COOLER WITH LIGHT BREEZES SUNDAY IS STILL ON
TRACK.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH  SATURDAY...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD WYOMING. IN THIS
PATTERN...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHEASTWARD...WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL IDAHO MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
/ALL AREAS/ INCREASE TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY...FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
ANOTHER POTENT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO OREGON/IDAHO BY MID-DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....MT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 191555
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
955 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL LEAD TO WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON AND SW IDAHO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OF TWIN FALLS WITH THE NEW
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THUS WILL LIMIT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH...SO WILL LIMIT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN
BAKER COUNTY EXTENDING EAST TO FAR NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY. MORNING
UPDATE WILL ALSO INCLUDE LESS CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MOST OF
SE OREGON/SW IDAHO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT E TO
SE THROUGH 18Z BECOMING WESTERLY 10-15KT AFTER 21Z...WITH 15-25KT
IN EASTERN OREGON. DRY COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH KBKE AROUND
00Z SUN...KBOI BETWEEN 02-04Z...KTWF BETWEEN 06-08Z. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS WITH FRONT UP TO 30KT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION NORTH AND EAST
OF KMYL AFTER 03Z SUN. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD SW FLOW TODAY WILL BRING
VALLEY HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. SW WIND GUSTS OVER OREGON AND FAR
SW IDAHO WILL PROBABLY REACH 30 MPH DUE TO THICK MIXED LAYER
TAPPING UPPER LEVEL STRONG WINDS. FLOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM NV
TO SRN TWF COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST...IN LINE WITH NAM. GFS KEEPS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
FARTHER SOUTH OVER NV THOUGH. GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS OVER OREGON
THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT OVER IDAHO 9 PM-3 AM. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
CLOUDINESS SPLITTING OVER SE WA SO WENT WITH DRIER POPS OF
METBC/MAVBC VS. ECEBC SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER HAS SCT SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL IDAHO. COOLER WITH LIGHT BREEZES SUNDAY IS STILL ON
TRACK.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH  SATURDAY...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD WYOMING. IN THIS
PATTERN...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHEASTWARD...WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL IDAHO MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
/ALL AREAS/ INCREASE TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY...FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
ANOTHER POTENT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO OREGON/IDAHO BY MID-DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....MT




000
FXUS66 KMFR 191554
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
854 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...A VERY WEAK FRONT IS JUST OFF THE COAST AND WILL
MOVE INLAND LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...WITH MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY JUST EXPECTED TO GET A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
OUTSIDE THE COASTAL AREAS...UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN POSSIBLE IN OTHER WEST SIDE LOCATIONS. BEHIND
THE FRONT EXPECT CLEARING AND DRYING SATURDAY EVENING. BESIDES
LIGHT RAIN...THE ONLY OTHER IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE BEACHES AND COAST AS INCREASED SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK THOUGH. OFFSHORE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY AND MOVE TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A STRONGER AND MOIST FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY
AND INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.




&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/12Z TAF CYCLE...ASIDE FROM SOME MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ALIGN THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD INLAND TO AREAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE THIS MORNING AS A
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN
ELSEWHERE TODAY AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE. GUSTS TO 30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT KLMT.
SOME WAVE TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.


&&

.MARINE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH CONCERNING THE MANY ISSUES AFFECTING
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE
A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...VERY HEAVY LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND SEAS WILL BECOME
VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SUNDAY. SWELL WILL DECAY SOME PRIOR TO
REACHING THE INNER WATERS...SO THE WARNING DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST...BUT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE INNER WATERS. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY
BREAKERS OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED AT
DEPTHS OF AROUND 750 FEET OR LESS COULD BE RELOCATED OR DAMAGED.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK
AND LIKELY INTO EARLY MAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL DURING MOST OF THAT TIME. BUT, THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

FIRST, A COLD FRONT IS OFFSHORE. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
EAST SIDE THIS EVENING. IT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND IN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE
OF A MEASURABLE AMOUNT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST OREGON AND FAR
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT LIKELY TO RECEIVE
MORE THAN A FEW RAIN DROPS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH EAST OF THE CASCADES.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT BUT LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AT THE COAST
AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS IN THE REST OF
OUR AREA, IT WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL ON
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER ALMOST
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES ON
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A FEW ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST POSSIBLE IN
THE NORMALLY COLDEST PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, AND ROGUE
VALLEYS...AWAY FROM CITY CENTERS. MEANTIME, HIGH SURF WILL RAPIDLY
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS RARE
THAT THERE WILL BE LARGE WAVES DURING A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY BUT
THAT WILL NOT MAKE THE SURF ANY LESS DANGEROUS. BREAKERS WILL BE
MAINLY 22 TO 24 FEET BUT SNEAKER WAVES OF LARGER HEIGHT ARE
LIKELY. VISITORS TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST SHOULD STAY AWAY
FROM JETTIES AND PIERS AND FAR AWAY FROM BREAKING SURF.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WIND SPEEDS. BETWEEN MONDAY
AND THURSDAY THERE WILL BE FREQUENT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE WEST SIDE
MOUNTAINS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE COAST BY THE END OF THE MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACK ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING TO 5000 FEET
BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WAS
INCREASED IN THE FORECAST. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE ANOTHER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH FORECAST ON THE EAST SIDE AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY AS WELL.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND I HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE EAST SIDE. THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND/OR
GRAUPEL. SNOW LEVELS ARE TRICKY WHEN IT IS COLD AND SHOWERY THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. THE ANGLE OF THE SUN, LENGTH OF THE DAY, AND
WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES RESULT IN SNOW MELTING AS IT HITS THE
GROUND. THUS, THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET
BUT SOME SNOWFLAKES COULD BE MIXED IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AS LOW AS
3000 FEET DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
THEN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS A DISTURBANCE RIDES OVER
AN OFFSHORE RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT WARMING BUT MOST NOTABLY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OREGON.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH A FOCUS FOR RAIN FROM
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. THE GFS IS STRONGER/WETTER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THE FRONT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
THEREAFTER, THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
FEATURES. BUT, BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE AN ACTIVE ONSHORE
FLOW WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF DISTURBANCES MOVING INLAND. WHAT COULD
BE THE STRONGEST OF THE WHOLE SERIES OF FRONTS IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY APRIL 27TH, BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE VERY LARGE/CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC






000
FXUS66 KMFR 191554
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
854 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...A VERY WEAK FRONT IS JUST OFF THE COAST AND WILL
MOVE INLAND LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...WITH MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY JUST EXPECTED TO GET A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
OUTSIDE THE COASTAL AREAS...UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN POSSIBLE IN OTHER WEST SIDE LOCATIONS. BEHIND
THE FRONT EXPECT CLEARING AND DRYING SATURDAY EVENING. BESIDES
LIGHT RAIN...THE ONLY OTHER IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE BEACHES AND COAST AS INCREASED SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK THOUGH. OFFSHORE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY AND MOVE TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A STRONGER AND MOIST FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY
AND INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.




&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/12Z TAF CYCLE...ASIDE FROM SOME MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ALIGN THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD INLAND TO AREAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE THIS MORNING AS A
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN
ELSEWHERE TODAY AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE. GUSTS TO 30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT KLMT.
SOME WAVE TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.


&&

.MARINE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH CONCERNING THE MANY ISSUES AFFECTING
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE
A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...VERY HEAVY LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND SEAS WILL BECOME
VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SUNDAY. SWELL WILL DECAY SOME PRIOR TO
REACHING THE INNER WATERS...SO THE WARNING DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST...BUT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE INNER WATERS. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY
BREAKERS OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED AT
DEPTHS OF AROUND 750 FEET OR LESS COULD BE RELOCATED OR DAMAGED.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK
AND LIKELY INTO EARLY MAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL DURING MOST OF THAT TIME. BUT, THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

FIRST, A COLD FRONT IS OFFSHORE. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
EAST SIDE THIS EVENING. IT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND IN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE
OF A MEASURABLE AMOUNT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST OREGON AND FAR
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT LIKELY TO RECEIVE
MORE THAN A FEW RAIN DROPS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH EAST OF THE CASCADES.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT BUT LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AT THE COAST
AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS IN THE REST OF
OUR AREA, IT WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL ON
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER ALMOST
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES ON
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A FEW ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST POSSIBLE IN
THE NORMALLY COLDEST PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, AND ROGUE
VALLEYS...AWAY FROM CITY CENTERS. MEANTIME, HIGH SURF WILL RAPIDLY
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS RARE
THAT THERE WILL BE LARGE WAVES DURING A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY BUT
THAT WILL NOT MAKE THE SURF ANY LESS DANGEROUS. BREAKERS WILL BE
MAINLY 22 TO 24 FEET BUT SNEAKER WAVES OF LARGER HEIGHT ARE
LIKELY. VISITORS TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST SHOULD STAY AWAY
FROM JETTIES AND PIERS AND FAR AWAY FROM BREAKING SURF.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WIND SPEEDS. BETWEEN MONDAY
AND THURSDAY THERE WILL BE FREQUENT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE WEST SIDE
MOUNTAINS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE COAST BY THE END OF THE MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACK ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING TO 5000 FEET
BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WAS
INCREASED IN THE FORECAST. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE ANOTHER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH FORECAST ON THE EAST SIDE AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY AS WELL.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND I HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE EAST SIDE. THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND/OR
GRAUPEL. SNOW LEVELS ARE TRICKY WHEN IT IS COLD AND SHOWERY THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. THE ANGLE OF THE SUN, LENGTH OF THE DAY, AND
WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES RESULT IN SNOW MELTING AS IT HITS THE
GROUND. THUS, THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET
BUT SOME SNOWFLAKES COULD BE MIXED IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AS LOW AS
3000 FEET DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
THEN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS A DISTURBANCE RIDES OVER
AN OFFSHORE RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT WARMING BUT MOST NOTABLY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OREGON.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH A FOCUS FOR RAIN FROM
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. THE GFS IS STRONGER/WETTER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THE FRONT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
THEREAFTER, THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
FEATURES. BUT, BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE AN ACTIVE ONSHORE
FLOW WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF DISTURBANCES MOVING INLAND. WHAT COULD
BE THE STRONGEST OF THE WHOLE SERIES OF FRONTS IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY APRIL 27TH, BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE VERY LARGE/CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC







000
FXUS66 KPDT 191542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
840 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE WEAK SYSTEM COMING THROUGH LATER TODAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PRECIPITATION IS CROSSING THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON...WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS 10000-20000 FT AGL
THIS MORNING WILL LOWER TO BKN 4000-7000 FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
15-25 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING BECOMING DRAINAGE WINDS
8-12 KTS BY 09Z/20TH, EXCEPT FOR WINDS AT KPDT, WHICH WILL BE SLOWER
TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AT 10-20
KTS FINALLY BACKING TO SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS 6-10 KTS BY AROUND
13Z/20TH.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AND CWA PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
IT AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND THE
EAST/NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THERE IS NOT A NEED TO BE
CONCERNED WITH HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CWA. A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR
AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FOR MONDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS ON
MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO A HALF INCH
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 FEET, BUT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
THERE MAY BE UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW SOUTH OF BEND THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA AND WHILE THE
FRONT WILL BE IN IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE DRY.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW A RIDGE FORMING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS UNCLEAR. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY
LULL IN THE WEATHER. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND HAS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER RIDGE AND HOLDS THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN A FRONT AND STRONG TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT THAT AS IS
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 15000
FEET WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT 5000-10000
FEET BY 16Z. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THEN BEGIN
CLEARING, BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 KTS THROUGH 17Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING, BECOMING WESTERLY AT 15 TO
25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 21Z THROUGH 04Z
WHEN WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 15 KTS. KPDT, KPSC AND KALW WILL HOLD ON
TO THE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH 06Z-10Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  36  63  41 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  38  64  46 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  67  39  67  43 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  61  34  65  40 /  10  20   0  10
HRI  67  37  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  59  36  63  39 /  10  20   0  10
RDM  60  25  66  34 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  66  34  61  38 /  20  20   0   0
GCD  62  29  61  35 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  61  39  69  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

84/99/88/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 191542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
840 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE WEAK SYSTEM COMING THROUGH LATER TODAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PRECIPITATION IS CROSSING THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON...WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS 10000-20000 FT AGL
THIS MORNING WILL LOWER TO BKN 4000-7000 FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
15-25 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING BECOMING DRAINAGE WINDS
8-12 KTS BY 09Z/20TH, EXCEPT FOR WINDS AT KPDT, WHICH WILL BE SLOWER
TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AT 10-20
KTS FINALLY BACKING TO SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS 6-10 KTS BY AROUND
13Z/20TH.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AND CWA PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
IT AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND THE
EAST/NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THERE IS NOT A NEED TO BE
CONCERNED WITH HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CWA. A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR
AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FOR MONDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS ON
MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO A HALF INCH
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 FEET, BUT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
THERE MAY BE UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW SOUTH OF BEND THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA AND WHILE THE
FRONT WILL BE IN IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE DRY.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW A RIDGE FORMING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS UNCLEAR. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY
LULL IN THE WEATHER. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND HAS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER RIDGE AND HOLDS THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN A FRONT AND STRONG TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT THAT AS IS
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 15000
FEET WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT 5000-10000
FEET BY 16Z. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THEN BEGIN
CLEARING, BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 KTS THROUGH 17Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING, BECOMING WESTERLY AT 15 TO
25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 21Z THROUGH 04Z
WHEN WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 15 KTS. KPDT, KPSC AND KALW WILL HOLD ON
TO THE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH 06Z-10Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  36  63  41 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  38  64  46 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  67  39  67  43 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  61  34  65  40 /  10  20   0  10
HRI  67  37  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  59  36  63  39 /  10  20   0  10
RDM  60  25  66  34 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  66  34  61  38 /  20  20   0   0
GCD  62  29  61  35 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  61  39  69  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

84/99/88/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 191542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
840 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE WEAK SYSTEM COMING THROUGH LATER TODAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PRECIPITATION IS CROSSING THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON...WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS 10000-20000 FT AGL
THIS MORNING WILL LOWER TO BKN 4000-7000 FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
15-25 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING BECOMING DRAINAGE WINDS
8-12 KTS BY 09Z/20TH, EXCEPT FOR WINDS AT KPDT, WHICH WILL BE SLOWER
TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AT 10-20
KTS FINALLY BACKING TO SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS 6-10 KTS BY AROUND
13Z/20TH.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AND CWA PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
IT AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND THE
EAST/NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THERE IS NOT A NEED TO BE
CONCERNED WITH HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CWA. A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR
AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FOR MONDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS ON
MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO A HALF INCH
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 FEET, BUT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
THERE MAY BE UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW SOUTH OF BEND THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA AND WHILE THE
FRONT WILL BE IN IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE DRY.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW A RIDGE FORMING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS UNCLEAR. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY
LULL IN THE WEATHER. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND HAS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER RIDGE AND HOLDS THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN A FRONT AND STRONG TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT THAT AS IS
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 15000
FEET WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT 5000-10000
FEET BY 16Z. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THEN BEGIN
CLEARING, BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 KTS THROUGH 17Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING, BECOMING WESTERLY AT 15 TO
25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 21Z THROUGH 04Z
WHEN WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 15 KTS. KPDT, KPSC AND KALW WILL HOLD ON
TO THE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH 06Z-10Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  36  63  41 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  38  64  46 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  67  39  67  43 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  61  34  65  40 /  10  20   0  10
HRI  67  37  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  59  36  63  39 /  10  20   0  10
RDM  60  25  66  34 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  66  34  61  38 /  20  20   0   0
GCD  62  29  61  35 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  61  39  69  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

84/99/88/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 191542 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
840 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE WEAK SYSTEM COMING THROUGH LATER TODAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PRECIPITATION IS CROSSING THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON...WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS 10000-20000 FT AGL
THIS MORNING WILL LOWER TO BKN 4000-7000 FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
15-25 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING BECOMING DRAINAGE WINDS
8-12 KTS BY 09Z/20TH, EXCEPT FOR WINDS AT KPDT, WHICH WILL BE SLOWER
TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AT 10-20
KTS FINALLY BACKING TO SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS 6-10 KTS BY AROUND
13Z/20TH.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AND CWA PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
IT AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND THE
EAST/NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THERE IS NOT A NEED TO BE
CONCERNED WITH HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CWA. A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR
AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FOR MONDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS ON
MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO A HALF INCH
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 FEET, BUT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
THERE MAY BE UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW SOUTH OF BEND THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA AND WHILE THE
FRONT WILL BE IN IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE DRY.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW A RIDGE FORMING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS UNCLEAR. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY
LULL IN THE WEATHER. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND HAS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER RIDGE AND HOLDS THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN A FRONT AND STRONG TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT THAT AS IS
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 15000
FEET WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT 5000-10000
FEET BY 16Z. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THEN BEGIN
CLEARING, BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 KTS THROUGH 17Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING, BECOMING WESTERLY AT 15 TO
25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 21Z THROUGH 04Z
WHEN WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 15 KTS. KPDT, KPSC AND KALW WILL HOLD ON
TO THE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH 06Z-10Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  36  63  41 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  38  64  46 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  67  39  67  43 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  61  34  65  40 /  10  20   0  10
HRI  67  37  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  59  36  63  39 /  10  20   0  10
RDM  60  25  66  34 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  66  34  61  38 /  20  20   0   0
GCD  62  29  61  35 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  61  39  69  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

84/99/88/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 191433
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
730 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE WEAK SYSTEM COMING THROUGH LATER TODAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PRECIPITATION IS CROSSING THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON...WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE. DMH

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 426 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AND CWA PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
IT AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND THE
EAST/NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THERE IS NOT A NEED TO BE
CONCERNED WITH HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CWA. A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR
AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FOR MONDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS ON
MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO A HALF INCH
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 FEET, BUT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
THERE MAY BE UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW SOUTH OF BEND THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA AND WHILE THE
FRONT WILL BE IN IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE DRY.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW A RIDGE FORMING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS UNCLEAR. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY
LULL IN THE WEATHER. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND HAS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER RIDGE AND HOLDS THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN A FRONT AND STRONG TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT THAT AS IS
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 15000
FEET WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT 5000-10000
FEET BY 16Z. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THEN BEGIN
CLEARING, BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 KTS THROUGH 17Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING, BECOMING WESTERLY AT 15 TO
25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 21Z THROUGH 04Z
WHEN WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 15 KTS. KPDT, KPSC AND KALW WILL HOLD ON
TO THE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH 06Z-10Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  36  63  41 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  38  64  46 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  67  39  67  43 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  61  34  65  40 /  10  20   0  10
HRI  67  37  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  59  36  63  39 /  10  20   0  10
RDM  60  25  66  34 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  66  34  61  38 /  20  20   0   0
GCD  62  29  61  35 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  61  39  69  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

84/








000
FXUS66 KPDT 191433
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
730 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE WEAK SYSTEM COMING THROUGH LATER TODAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PRECIPITATION IS CROSSING THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON...WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE. DMH

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 426 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AND CWA PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
IT AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND THE
EAST/NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THERE IS NOT A NEED TO BE
CONCERNED WITH HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CWA. A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR
AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FOR MONDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS ON
MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO A HALF INCH
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 FEET, BUT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
THERE MAY BE UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW SOUTH OF BEND THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA AND WHILE THE
FRONT WILL BE IN IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE DRY.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW A RIDGE FORMING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS UNCLEAR. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY
LULL IN THE WEATHER. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND HAS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER RIDGE AND HOLDS THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN A FRONT AND STRONG TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT THAT AS IS
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 15000
FEET WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT 5000-10000
FEET BY 16Z. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THEN BEGIN
CLEARING, BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 KTS THROUGH 17Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING, BECOMING WESTERLY AT 15 TO
25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 21Z THROUGH 04Z
WHEN WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 15 KTS. KPDT, KPSC AND KALW WILL HOLD ON
TO THE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH 06Z-10Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  36  63  41 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  38  64  46 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  67  39  67  43 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  61  34  65  40 /  10  20   0  10
HRI  67  37  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  59  36  63  39 /  10  20   0  10
RDM  60  25  66  34 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  66  34  61  38 /  20  20   0   0
GCD  62  29  61  35 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  61  39  69  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

84/








000
FXUS66 KPDT 191433
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
730 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE WEAK SYSTEM COMING THROUGH LATER TODAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PRECIPITATION IS CROSSING THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON...WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE. DMH

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 426 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AND CWA PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
IT AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND THE
EAST/NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THERE IS NOT A NEED TO BE
CONCERNED WITH HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CWA. A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR
AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FOR MONDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS ON
MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO A HALF INCH
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 FEET, BUT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
THERE MAY BE UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW SOUTH OF BEND THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA AND WHILE THE
FRONT WILL BE IN IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE DRY.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW A RIDGE FORMING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS UNCLEAR. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY
LULL IN THE WEATHER. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND HAS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER RIDGE AND HOLDS THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN A FRONT AND STRONG TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT THAT AS IS
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 15000
FEET WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT 5000-10000
FEET BY 16Z. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THEN BEGIN
CLEARING, BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 KTS THROUGH 17Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING, BECOMING WESTERLY AT 15 TO
25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 21Z THROUGH 04Z
WHEN WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 15 KTS. KPDT, KPSC AND KALW WILL HOLD ON
TO THE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH 06Z-10Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  36  63  41 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  38  64  46 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  67  39  67  43 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  61  34  65  40 /  10  20   0  10
HRI  67  37  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  59  36  63  39 /  10  20   0  10
RDM  60  25  66  34 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  66  34  61  38 /  20  20   0   0
GCD  62  29  61  35 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  61  39  69  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

84/








000
FXUS66 KPDT 191433
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
730 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE WEAK SYSTEM COMING THROUGH LATER TODAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PRECIPITATION IS CROSSING THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON...WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE. DMH

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 426 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AND CWA PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
IT AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND THE
EAST/NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THERE IS NOT A NEED TO BE
CONCERNED WITH HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CWA. A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR
AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FOR MONDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS ON
MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO A HALF INCH
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 FEET, BUT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
THERE MAY BE UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW SOUTH OF BEND THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA AND WHILE THE
FRONT WILL BE IN IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE DRY.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW A RIDGE FORMING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS UNCLEAR. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY
LULL IN THE WEATHER. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND HAS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER RIDGE AND HOLDS THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN A FRONT AND STRONG TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT THAT AS IS
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 15000
FEET WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT 5000-10000
FEET BY 16Z. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THEN BEGIN
CLEARING, BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 KTS THROUGH 17Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING, BECOMING WESTERLY AT 15 TO
25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 21Z THROUGH 04Z
WHEN WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 15 KTS. KPDT, KPSC AND KALW WILL HOLD ON
TO THE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH 06Z-10Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  36  63  41 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  38  64  46 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  67  39  67  43 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  61  34  65  40 /  10  20   0  10
HRI  67  37  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  59  36  63  39 /  10  20   0  10
RDM  60  25  66  34 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  66  34  61  38 /  20  20   0   0
GCD  62  29  61  35 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  61  39  69  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

84/








000
FXUS66 KPDT 191126 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
426 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AND CWA PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
IT AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND THE
EAST/NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THERE IS NOT A NEED TO BE
CONCERNED WITH HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CWA. A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR
AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FOR MONDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS ON
MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO A HALF INCH
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 FEET, BUT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
THERE MAY BE UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW SOUTH OF BEND THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA AND WHILE THE
FRONT WILL BE IN IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE DRY.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW A RIDGE FORMING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS UNCLEAR. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY
LULL IN THE WEATHER. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND HAS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER RIDGE AND HOLDS THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN A FRONT AND STRONG TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT THAT AS IS
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 15000
FEET WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT 5000-10000
FEET BY 16Z. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THEN BEGIN
CLEARING, BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 KTS THROUGH 17Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING, BECOMING WESTERLY AT 15 TO
25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 21Z THROUGH 04Z
WHEN WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 15 KTS. KPDT, KPSC AND KALW WILL HOLD ON
TO THE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH 06Z-10Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  36  63  41 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  38  64  46 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  67  39  67  43 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  61  34  65  40 /  10  20   0  10
HRI  67  37  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  59  36  63  39 /  10  20   0  10
RDM  60  25  66  34 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  66  34  61  38 /  20  20   0   0
GCD  62  29  61  35 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  61  39  69  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83







000
FXUS66 KPDT 191126 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
426 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AND CWA PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
IT AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND THE
EAST/NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THERE IS NOT A NEED TO BE
CONCERNED WITH HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CWA. A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR
AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FOR MONDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS ON
MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO A HALF INCH
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 FEET, BUT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
THERE MAY BE UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW SOUTH OF BEND THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA AND WHILE THE
FRONT WILL BE IN IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE DRY.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW A RIDGE FORMING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS UNCLEAR. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY
LULL IN THE WEATHER. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND HAS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER RIDGE AND HOLDS THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN A FRONT AND STRONG TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT THAT AS IS
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 15000
FEET WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT 5000-10000
FEET BY 16Z. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THEN BEGIN
CLEARING, BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 KTS THROUGH 17Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING, BECOMING WESTERLY AT 15 TO
25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 21Z THROUGH 04Z
WHEN WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 15 KTS. KPDT, KPSC AND KALW WILL HOLD ON
TO THE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH 06Z-10Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  36  63  41 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  38  64  46 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  67  39  67  43 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  61  34  65  40 /  10  20   0  10
HRI  67  37  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  59  36  63  39 /  10  20   0  10
RDM  60  25  66  34 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  66  34  61  38 /  20  20   0   0
GCD  62  29  61  35 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  61  39  69  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83






000
FXUS66 KMFR 191115
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
415 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK
AND LIKELY INTO EARLY MAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL DURING MOST OF THAT TIME. BUT, THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

FIRST, A COLD FRONT IS OFFSHORE. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
EAST SIDE THIS EVENING. IT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND IN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE
OF A MEASUREABLE AMOUNT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST OREGON AND FAR
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT LIKELY TO RECEIVE
MORE THAN A FEW RAIN DROPS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH EAST OF THE CASCADES.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT BUT LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AT THE COAST
AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS IN THE REST OF
OUR AREA, IT WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL ON
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER ALMOST
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES ON
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A FEW ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST POSSIBLE IN
THE NORMALLY COLDEST PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, AND ROGUE
VALLEYS...AWAY FROM CITY CENTERS. MEANTIME, HIGH SURF WILL RAPIDLY
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS RARE
THAT THERE WILL BE LARGE WAVES DURING A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY BUT
THAT WILL NOT MAKE THE SURF ANY LESS DANGEROUS. BREAKERS WILL BE
MAINLY 22 TO 24 FEET BUT SNEAKER WAVES OF LARGER HEIGHT ARE
LIKELY. VISITORS TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST SHOULD STAY AWAY
FROM JETTIES AND PIERS AND FAR AWAY FROM BREAKING SURF.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WIND SPEEDS. BETWEEN MONDAY
AND THURSDAY THERE WILL BE FREQUENT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE WEST SIDE
MOUNTAINS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE COAST BY THE END OF THE MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACK ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING TO 5000 FEET
BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WAS
INCREASED IN THE FORECAST. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE ANOTHER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH FORECAST ON THE EAST SIDE AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY AS WELL.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND I HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE EAST SIDE. THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND/OR
GRAUPEL. SNOW LEVELS ARE TRICKY WHEN IT IS COLD AND SHOWERY THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. THE ANGLE OF THE SUN, LENGTH OF THE DAY, AND
WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES RESULT IN SNOW MELTING AS IT HITS THE
GROUND. THUS, THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET
BUT SOME SNOWFLAKES COULD BE MIXED IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AS LOW AS
3000 FEET DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
THEN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS A DISTURBANCE RIDES OVER
AN OFFSHORE RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT WARMING BUT MOST NOTABLY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OREGON.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH A FOCUS FOR RAIN FROM
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. THE GFS IS STRONGER/WETTER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THE FRONT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
THEREAFTER, THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
FEATURES. BUT, BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE AN ACTIVE ONSHORE
FLOW WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF DISTURBANCES MOVING INLAND. WHAT COULD
BE THE STRONGEST OF THE WHOLE SERIES OF FRONTS IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY APRIL 27TH, BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE VERY LARGE/CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF
TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS TO AREAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE SATURDAY (INCLUDING
KOTH AND KRBG) ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT
IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN ELSEHWERE SATURDAY AND CIGS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS, BUT ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE. GUSTS
TO 30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT KLMT. SOME WAVE TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SPILDE/WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH CONCERNING THE MANY ISSUES AFFECTING
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE
A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...VERY HEAVY LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND SEAS WILL BECOME
VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SUNDAY. SWELL WILL DECAY SOME PRIOR TO
REACHING THE INNER WATERS...SO THE WARNING DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST...BUT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE INNER WATERS. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY
BREAKERS OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED AT
DEPTHS OF AROUND 750 FEET OR LESS COULD BE RELOCATED OR DAMAGED.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/BPN






000
FXUS66 KMFR 191115
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
415 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK
AND LIKELY INTO EARLY MAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL DURING MOST OF THAT TIME. BUT, THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

FIRST, A COLD FRONT IS OFFSHORE. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
EAST SIDE THIS EVENING. IT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND IN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE
OF A MEASUREABLE AMOUNT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST OREGON AND FAR
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT LIKELY TO RECEIVE
MORE THAN A FEW RAIN DROPS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH EAST OF THE CASCADES.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT BUT LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AT THE COAST
AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS IN THE REST OF
OUR AREA, IT WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL ON
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER ALMOST
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES ON
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A FEW ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST POSSIBLE IN
THE NORMALLY COLDEST PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, AND ROGUE
VALLEYS...AWAY FROM CITY CENTERS. MEANTIME, HIGH SURF WILL RAPIDLY
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS RARE
THAT THERE WILL BE LARGE WAVES DURING A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY BUT
THAT WILL NOT MAKE THE SURF ANY LESS DANGEROUS. BREAKERS WILL BE
MAINLY 22 TO 24 FEET BUT SNEAKER WAVES OF LARGER HEIGHT ARE
LIKELY. VISITORS TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST SHOULD STAY AWAY
FROM JETTIES AND PIERS AND FAR AWAY FROM BREAKING SURF.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WIND SPEEDS. BETWEEN MONDAY
AND THURSDAY THERE WILL BE FREQUENT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE WEST SIDE
MOUNTAINS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE COAST BY THE END OF THE MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACK ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING TO 5000 FEET
BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WAS
INCREASED IN THE FORECAST. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE ANOTHER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH FORECAST ON THE EAST SIDE AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY AS WELL.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND I HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE EAST SIDE. THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND/OR
GRAUPEL. SNOW LEVELS ARE TRICKY WHEN IT IS COLD AND SHOWERY THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. THE ANGLE OF THE SUN, LENGTH OF THE DAY, AND
WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES RESULT IN SNOW MELTING AS IT HITS THE
GROUND. THUS, THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET
BUT SOME SNOWFLAKES COULD BE MIXED IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AS LOW AS
3000 FEET DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
THEN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS A DISTURBANCE RIDES OVER
AN OFFSHORE RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT WARMING BUT MOST NOTABLY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OREGON.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH A FOCUS FOR RAIN FROM
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. THE GFS IS STRONGER/WETTER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THE FRONT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
THEREAFTER, THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
FEATURES. BUT, BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE AN ACTIVE ONSHORE
FLOW WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF DISTURBANCES MOVING INLAND. WHAT COULD
BE THE STRONGEST OF THE WHOLE SERIES OF FRONTS IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY APRIL 27TH, BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE VERY LARGE/CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF
TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS TO AREAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE SATURDAY (INCLUDING
KOTH AND KRBG) ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT
IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN ELSEHWERE SATURDAY AND CIGS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS, BUT ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE. GUSTS
TO 30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT KLMT. SOME WAVE TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SPILDE/WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH CONCERNING THE MANY ISSUES AFFECTING
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE
A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...VERY HEAVY LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND SEAS WILL BECOME
VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SUNDAY. SWELL WILL DECAY SOME PRIOR TO
REACHING THE INNER WATERS...SO THE WARNING DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST...BUT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE INNER WATERS. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY
BREAKERS OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED AT
DEPTHS OF AROUND 750 FEET OR LESS COULD BE RELOCATED OR DAMAGED.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/BPN







000
FXUS65 KBOI 190944 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
344 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD SW FLOW TODAY WILL BRING
VALLEY HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. SW WIND GUSTS OVER OREGON AND FAR
SW IDAHO WILL PROBABLY REACH 30 MPH DUE TO THICK MIXED LAYER
TAPPING UPPER LEVEL STRONG WINDS. FLOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM NV
TO SRN TWF COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST...IN LINE WITH NAM. GFS KEEPS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
FARTHER SOUTH OVER NV THOUGH. GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS OVER OREGON
THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT OVER IDAHO 9 PM-3 AM. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
CLOUDINESS SPLITTING OVER SE WA SO WENT WITH DRIER POPS OF
METBC/MAVBC VS. ECEBC SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER HAS SCT SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL IDAHO. COOLER WITH LIGHT BREEZES SUNDAY IS STILL ON
TRACK.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH  SATURDAY...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD WYOMING. IN THIS
PATTERN...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHEASTWARD...WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL IDAHO MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
/ALL AREAS/ INCREASE TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY...FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
ANOTHER POTENT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO OREGON/IDAHO BY MID-DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR UNDER SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT DIURNAL
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 17Z...BECOMING W/NW 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS AFTER 17Z. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 25 KTS AT
10K FT MSL. WINDS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS OREGON/IDAHO.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 190944
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
344 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD SW FLOW TODAY WILL BRING
VALLEY HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. SW WIND GUSTS OVER OREGON AND FAR
SW IDAHO WILL PROBABLY REACH 30 MPH DUE TO THICK MIXED LAYER
TAPPING UPPER LEVEL STRONG WINDS. FLOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM NV
TO SRN TWF COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST...IN LINE WITH NAM. GFS KEEPS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
FARTHER SOUTH OVER NV THOUGH. GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS OVER OREGON
THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT OVER IDAHO 9 PM-3 AM. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
CLOUDINESS SPLITTING OVER SE WA SO WENT WITH DRIER POPS OF
METBC/MAVBC VS. ECEBC SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER HAS SCT SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL IDAHO COOLER WITH LIGHT BREEZES SUNDAY IS STILL ON
TRACK.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH  SATURDAY...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD WYOMING. IN THIS
PATTERN...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHEASTWARD...WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL IDAHO MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
/ALL AREAS/ INCREASE TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY...FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
ANOTHER POTENT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO OREGON/IDAHO BY MID-DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR UNDER SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT DIURNAL
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 17Z...BECOMING W/NW 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS AFTER 17Z. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 25 KTS AT
10K FT MSL. WINDS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS OREGON/IDAHO.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 190944
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
344 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD SW FLOW TODAY WILL BRING
VALLEY HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. SW WIND GUSTS OVER OREGON AND FAR
SW IDAHO WILL PROBABLY REACH 30 MPH DUE TO THICK MIXED LAYER
TAPPING UPPER LEVEL STRONG WINDS. FLOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM NV
TO SRN TWF COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST...IN LINE WITH NAM. GFS KEEPS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
FARTHER SOUTH OVER NV THOUGH. GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS OVER OREGON
THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT OVER IDAHO 9 PM-3 AM. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
CLOUDINESS SPLITTING OVER SE WA SO WENT WITH DRIER POPS OF
METBC/MAVBC VS. ECEBC SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER HAS SCT SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL IDAHO COOLER WITH LIGHT BREEZES SUNDAY IS STILL ON
TRACK.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH  SATURDAY...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD WYOMING. IN THIS
PATTERN...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHEASTWARD...WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL IDAHO MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
/ALL AREAS/ INCREASE TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY...FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
ANOTHER POTENT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO OREGON/IDAHO BY MID-DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR UNDER SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT DIURNAL
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 17Z...BECOMING W/NW 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS AFTER 17Z. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 25 KTS AT
10K FT MSL. WINDS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS OREGON/IDAHO.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 190944
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
344 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD SW FLOW TODAY WILL BRING
VALLEY HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. SW WIND GUSTS OVER OREGON AND FAR
SW IDAHO WILL PROBABLY REACH 30 MPH DUE TO THICK MIXED LAYER
TAPPING UPPER LEVEL STRONG WINDS. FLOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM NV
TO SRN TWF COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST...IN LINE WITH NAM. GFS KEEPS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
FARTHER SOUTH OVER NV THOUGH. GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS OVER OREGON
THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT OVER IDAHO 9 PM-3 AM. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
CLOUDINESS SPLITTING OVER SE WA SO WENT WITH DRIER POPS OF
METBC/MAVBC VS. ECEBC SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER HAS SCT SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL IDAHO COOLER WITH LIGHT BREEZES SUNDAY IS STILL ON
TRACK.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH  SATURDAY...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD WYOMING. IN THIS
PATTERN...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHEASTWARD...WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL IDAHO MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
/ALL AREAS/ INCREASE TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY...FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
ANOTHER POTENT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO OREGON/IDAHO BY MID-DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR UNDER SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT DIURNAL
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 17Z...BECOMING W/NW 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS AFTER 17Z. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 25 KTS AT
10K FT MSL. WINDS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS OREGON/IDAHO.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 190944
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
344 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD SW FLOW TODAY WILL BRING
VALLEY HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. SW WIND GUSTS OVER OREGON AND FAR
SW IDAHO WILL PROBABLY REACH 30 MPH DUE TO THICK MIXED LAYER
TAPPING UPPER LEVEL STRONG WINDS. FLOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM NV
TO SRN TWF COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST...IN LINE WITH NAM. GFS KEEPS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
FARTHER SOUTH OVER NV THOUGH. GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS OVER OREGON
THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT OVER IDAHO 9 PM-3 AM. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
CLOUDINESS SPLITTING OVER SE WA SO WENT WITH DRIER POPS OF
METBC/MAVBC VS. ECEBC SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER HAS SCT SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL IDAHO COOLER WITH LIGHT BREEZES SUNDAY IS STILL ON
TRACK.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH  SATURDAY...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD WYOMING. IN THIS
PATTERN...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHEASTWARD...WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL IDAHO MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
/ALL AREAS/ INCREASE TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY...FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
ANOTHER POTENT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO OREGON/IDAHO BY MID-DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR UNDER SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT DIURNAL
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 17Z...BECOMING W/NW 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS AFTER 17Z. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 25 KTS AT
10K FT MSL. WINDS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS OREGON/IDAHO.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 190944 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
344 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD SW FLOW TODAY WILL BRING
VALLEY HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. SW WIND GUSTS OVER OREGON AND FAR
SW IDAHO WILL PROBABLY REACH 30 MPH DUE TO THICK MIXED LAYER
TAPPING UPPER LEVEL STRONG WINDS. FLOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM NV
TO SRN TWF COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST...IN LINE WITH NAM. GFS KEEPS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
FARTHER SOUTH OVER NV THOUGH. GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS OVER OREGON
THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT OVER IDAHO 9 PM-3 AM. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
CLOUDINESS SPLITTING OVER SE WA SO WENT WITH DRIER POPS OF
METBC/MAVBC VS. ECEBC SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER HAS SCT SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL IDAHO. COOLER WITH LIGHT BREEZES SUNDAY IS STILL ON
TRACK.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH  SATURDAY...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD WYOMING. IN THIS
PATTERN...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHEASTWARD...WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL IDAHO MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
/ALL AREAS/ INCREASE TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY...FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
ANOTHER POTENT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO OREGON/IDAHO BY MID-DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR UNDER SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT DIURNAL
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH 17Z...BECOMING W/NW 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS AFTER 17Z. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 25 KTS AT
10K FT MSL. WINDS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS OREGON/IDAHO.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT




000
FXUS66 KPDT 190937
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
237 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AND CWA PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
IT AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND THE
EAST/NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THERE IS NOT A NEED TO BE
CONCERNED WITH HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CWA. A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR
AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FOR MONDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS ON
MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO A HALF INCH
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 FEET, BUT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
THERE MAY BE UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW SOUTH OF BEND THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA AND WHILE THE
FRONT WILL BE IN IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE DRY.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW A RIDGE FORMING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS UNCLEAR. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY
LULL IN THE WEATHER. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND HAS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER RIDGE AND HOLDS THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN A FRONT AND STRONG TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT THAT AS IS
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...THIN CIRRUS TONIGHT
WITH SCT-BKN200. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY BECOMING BKN100-150
IN THE MORNING THEN LOWERING TO BKN-OVC040-080 IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING TO 15-30KT BY AFTERNOON. 94

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  36  63  41 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  38  64  46 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  67  39  67  43 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  61  34  65  40 /  10  20   0  10
HRI  67  37  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  59  36  63  39 /  10  20   0  10
RDM  60  25  66  34 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  66  34  61  38 /  20  20   0   0
GCD  62  29  61  35 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  61  39  69  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83












000
FXUS66 KPDT 190937
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
237 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AND CWA PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
IT AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND THE
EAST/NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THERE IS NOT A NEED TO BE
CONCERNED WITH HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CWA. A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR
AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FOR MONDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS ON
MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO A HALF INCH
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 FEET, BUT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
THERE MAY BE UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW SOUTH OF BEND THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA AND WHILE THE
FRONT WILL BE IN IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE DRY.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW A RIDGE FORMING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS UNCLEAR. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY
LULL IN THE WEATHER. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND HAS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER RIDGE AND HOLDS THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN A FRONT AND STRONG TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT THAT AS IS
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...THIN CIRRUS TONIGHT
WITH SCT-BKN200. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY BECOMING BKN100-150
IN THE MORNING THEN LOWERING TO BKN-OVC040-080 IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING TO 15-30KT BY AFTERNOON. 94

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  36  63  41 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  38  64  46 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  67  39  67  43 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  61  34  65  40 /  10  20   0  10
HRI  67  37  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  59  36  63  39 /  10  20   0  10
RDM  60  25  66  34 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  66  34  61  38 /  20  20   0   0
GCD  62  29  61  35 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  61  39  69  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83












000
FXUS66 KPDT 190937
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
237 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AND CWA PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
IT AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND THE
EAST/NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THERE IS NOT A NEED TO BE
CONCERNED WITH HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CWA. A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR
AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FOR MONDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS ON
MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO A HALF INCH
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 FEET, BUT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
THERE MAY BE UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW SOUTH OF BEND THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA AND WHILE THE
FRONT WILL BE IN IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE DRY.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW A RIDGE FORMING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS UNCLEAR. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY
LULL IN THE WEATHER. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND HAS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER RIDGE AND HOLDS THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN A FRONT AND STRONG TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT THAT AS IS
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...THIN CIRRUS TONIGHT
WITH SCT-BKN200. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY BECOMING BKN100-150
IN THE MORNING THEN LOWERING TO BKN-OVC040-080 IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING TO 15-30KT BY AFTERNOON. 94

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  36  63  41 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  38  64  46 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  67  39  67  43 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  61  34  65  40 /  10  20   0  10
HRI  67  37  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  59  36  63  39 /  10  20   0  10
RDM  60  25  66  34 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  66  34  61  38 /  20  20   0   0
GCD  62  29  61  35 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  61  39  69  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83












000
FXUS66 KPDT 190937
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
237 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AND CWA PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
IT AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND THE
EAST/NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THERE IS NOT A NEED TO BE
CONCERNED WITH HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CWA. A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR
AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FOR MONDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS ON
MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 88

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO A HALF INCH
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 FEET, BUT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
THERE MAY BE UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW SOUTH OF BEND THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA AND WHILE THE
FRONT WILL BE IN IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE DRY.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW A RIDGE FORMING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS UNCLEAR. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY
LULL IN THE WEATHER. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND HAS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER RIDGE AND HOLDS THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN A FRONT AND STRONG TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT THAT AS IS
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...THIN CIRRUS TONIGHT
WITH SCT-BKN200. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY BECOMING BKN100-150
IN THE MORNING THEN LOWERING TO BKN-OVC040-080 IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING TO 15-30KT BY AFTERNOON. 94

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  36  63  41 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  38  64  46 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  67  39  67  43 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  61  34  65  40 /  10  20   0  10
HRI  67  37  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  59  36  63  39 /  10  20   0  10
RDM  60  25  66  34 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  66  34  61  38 /  20  20   0   0
GCD  62  29  61  35 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  61  39  69  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/83/83












000
FXUS66 KPQR 190923
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
225 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A  COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY...CROSSING THE CASCADES BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AS WELL. WEAK
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON
EASTER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD CALIFORNIA FOR MORE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN
OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AS MORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WAS SEEN ON SATELLITE ABOUT 200 MI OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT MORNING...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND ON TRACK TO
REACH THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS MAINLY MID AND LOW LEVEL
WITH THE FRONT...MATCHING THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGESTING
MOISTURE GENERALLY BELOW 700MB. WHILE MOISTURE IS ON THE SHALLOW
SIDE...THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS MODERATELY STRONG AND IS SYNCHED
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PROVIDING WELL TIMED LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS
HIGH TODAY FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALTHOUGH THE DURATION MAY BE ON
THE SHORT SIDE. SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
ONSHORE FAVORING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED CASCADES
AND COAST RANGE.

AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...AND AN INITIALLY
FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WILL SEE DRY WEATHER RETURN ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS AGAIN FOR SUN. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS THE NEXT TROUGH IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DIGS OFFSHORE AND THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES BUILDS. AS THE
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW BACKS TO THE SSW MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS AT
BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS DIGGING THE TROUGH S
PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON TO CHANCE CATEGORY
INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AS A FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING
HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL ORIENT THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE AS THE UPPER JET NOSES
INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW...MODELS SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES...AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HOVER IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG/KM RANGE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. AFTER THE FIRST LARGE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A BREAK IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AS
OF 09Z. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT WITH RAIN TO
REACH THE COAST BY 14Z...AND PUSHING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AROUND
18Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TOWARDS VFR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2000 FT LIKELY AROUND 18Z WITH RAIN AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THEN BECOMING VFR AROUND 00Z SUN.   CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WHICH
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS STARTING
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE
30-35 KT RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH ASHORE
AROUND DAYBREAK SAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SUN. SEAS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN THE SWELL
ARRIVES AROUND 11 PM TONIGHT...AND PEAKING THROUGH 5 AM SUN. SEAS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 15 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING
FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. IT APPEARS THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF CRITERIA...BUT ALL
INDIVIDUALS ALONG THE BEACHES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS WEEKEND.
CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY.


&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 190923
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
225 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A  COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY...CROSSING THE CASCADES BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AS WELL. WEAK
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON
EASTER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD CALIFORNIA FOR MORE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN
OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AS MORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WAS SEEN ON SATELLITE ABOUT 200 MI OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT MORNING...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND ON TRACK TO
REACH THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS MAINLY MID AND LOW LEVEL
WITH THE FRONT...MATCHING THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGESTING
MOISTURE GENERALLY BELOW 700MB. WHILE MOISTURE IS ON THE SHALLOW
SIDE...THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS MODERATELY STRONG AND IS SYNCHED
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PROVIDING WELL TIMED LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS
HIGH TODAY FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALTHOUGH THE DURATION MAY BE ON
THE SHORT SIDE. SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
ONSHORE FAVORING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED CASCADES
AND COAST RANGE.

AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...AND AN INITIALLY
FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WILL SEE DRY WEATHER RETURN ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS AGAIN FOR SUN. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS THE NEXT TROUGH IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DIGS OFFSHORE AND THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES BUILDS. AS THE
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW BACKS TO THE SSW MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS AT
BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS DIGGING THE TROUGH S
PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON TO CHANCE CATEGORY
INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AS A FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING
HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL ORIENT THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE AS THE UPPER JET NOSES
INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW...MODELS SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES...AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HOVER IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG/KM RANGE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. AFTER THE FIRST LARGE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A BREAK IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AS
OF 09Z. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT WITH RAIN TO
REACH THE COAST BY 14Z...AND PUSHING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AROUND
18Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TOWARDS VFR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2000 FT LIKELY AROUND 18Z WITH RAIN AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THEN BECOMING VFR AROUND 00Z SUN.   CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WHICH
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS STARTING
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE
30-35 KT RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH ASHORE
AROUND DAYBREAK SAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SUN. SEAS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN THE SWELL
ARRIVES AROUND 11 PM TONIGHT...AND PEAKING THROUGH 5 AM SUN. SEAS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 15 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING
FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. IT APPEARS THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF CRITERIA...BUT ALL
INDIVIDUALS ALONG THE BEACHES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS WEEKEND.
CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY.


&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 190923
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
225 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A  COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY...CROSSING THE CASCADES BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AS WELL. WEAK
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON
EASTER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD CALIFORNIA FOR MORE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN
OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AS MORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WAS SEEN ON SATELLITE ABOUT 200 MI OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT MORNING...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND ON TRACK TO
REACH THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS MAINLY MID AND LOW LEVEL
WITH THE FRONT...MATCHING THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGESTING
MOISTURE GENERALLY BELOW 700MB. WHILE MOISTURE IS ON THE SHALLOW
SIDE...THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS MODERATELY STRONG AND IS SYNCHED
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PROVIDING WELL TIMED LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS
HIGH TODAY FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALTHOUGH THE DURATION MAY BE ON
THE SHORT SIDE. SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
ONSHORE FAVORING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED CASCADES
AND COAST RANGE.

AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...AND AN INITIALLY
FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WILL SEE DRY WEATHER RETURN ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS AGAIN FOR SUN. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS THE NEXT TROUGH IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DIGS OFFSHORE AND THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES BUILDS. AS THE
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW BACKS TO THE SSW MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS AT
BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS DIGGING THE TROUGH S
PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON TO CHANCE CATEGORY
INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AS A FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING
HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL ORIENT THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE AS THE UPPER JET NOSES
INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW...MODELS SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES...AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HOVER IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG/KM RANGE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. AFTER THE FIRST LARGE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A BREAK IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AS
OF 09Z. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT WITH RAIN TO
REACH THE COAST BY 14Z...AND PUSHING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AROUND
18Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TOWARDS VFR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2000 FT LIKELY AROUND 18Z WITH RAIN AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THEN BECOMING VFR AROUND 00Z SUN.   CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WHICH
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS STARTING
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE
30-35 KT RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH ASHORE
AROUND DAYBREAK SAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SUN. SEAS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN THE SWELL
ARRIVES AROUND 11 PM TONIGHT...AND PEAKING THROUGH 5 AM SUN. SEAS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 15 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING
FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. IT APPEARS THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF CRITERIA...BUT ALL
INDIVIDUALS ALONG THE BEACHES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS WEEKEND.
CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY.


&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 190923
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
225 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A  COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY...CROSSING THE CASCADES BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AS WELL. WEAK
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON
EASTER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH COAST ZONES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD CALIFORNIA FOR MORE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN
OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AS MORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WAS SEEN ON SATELLITE ABOUT 200 MI OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT MORNING...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND ON TRACK TO
REACH THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS MAINLY MID AND LOW LEVEL
WITH THE FRONT...MATCHING THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGESTING
MOISTURE GENERALLY BELOW 700MB. WHILE MOISTURE IS ON THE SHALLOW
SIDE...THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS MODERATELY STRONG AND IS SYNCHED
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PROVIDING WELL TIMED LIFT. WILL KEEP POPS
HIGH TODAY FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALTHOUGH THE DURATION MAY BE ON
THE SHORT SIDE. SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
ONSHORE FAVORING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED CASCADES
AND COAST RANGE.

AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...AND AN INITIALLY
FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WILL SEE DRY WEATHER RETURN ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS AGAIN FOR SUN. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS THE NEXT TROUGH IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DIGS OFFSHORE AND THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES BUILDS. AS THE
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW BACKS TO THE SSW MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS AT
BEST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH DYNAMICS DIGGING THE TROUGH S
PREFER TO LIMIT POPS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON TO CHANCE CATEGORY
INLAND...BUT HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AS A FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. SW ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH FALLING
HEIGHTS ALOFT POINT TOWARDS COOLER MARINE AIR PUSHING BACK IN MON.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL ORIENT THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE AS THE UPPER JET NOSES
INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW...MODELS SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES...AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HOVER IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG/KM RANGE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. AFTER THE FIRST LARGE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A BREAK IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING UNDER CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AS
OF 09Z. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT WITH RAIN TO
REACH THE COAST BY 14Z...AND PUSHING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AROUND
18Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TOWARDS VFR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2000 FT LIKELY AROUND 18Z WITH RAIN AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THEN BECOMING VFR AROUND 00Z SUN.   CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WHICH
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS STARTING
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE
30-35 KT RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH ASHORE
AROUND DAYBREAK SAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS AND TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SUN. SEAS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS WHEN THE SWELL
ARRIVES AROUND 11 PM TONIGHT...AND PEAKING THROUGH 5 AM SUN. SEAS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 15 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT EARLY TUE.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING
FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. IT APPEARS THE
CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF CRITERIA...BUT ALL
INDIVIDUALS ALONG THE BEACHES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS WEEKEND.
CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     10 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY.


&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPDT 190531
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS CIRRUS INCREASING OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE LOW. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE INCREASED WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLUMBIA BASIN
INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL HAVE BREEZY WEST WINDS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER THE CASCADES AND A LITTLE OVER THE BLUES.
OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.  94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. THIN CIRRUS TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN200. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY BECOMING BKN100-150 IN THE MORNING THEN
LOWERING TO BKN-OVC040-080 IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
INCREASING TO 15-30KT BY AFTERNOON. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY AND UPPER 60S
TOMORROW...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  BREEZY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.  AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS
THE AREA...BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN SUNDAY
MORNING.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE A NICE DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  BY MONDAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE SET IN AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.  BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS ALL AREAS.  FOR NOW HAVE NOT ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT RULE IT OUT AS A POSSIBILITY.  EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY...EARLY TUESDAY.   WEBER

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH WILL BE OVER FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY OVER MOUNTAINS AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH MOVES INTO IDAHO/MONTANA FOR
DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR DECREASING POPS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE RIDGE. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT MOISTURE BEGINS
INCREASING IN HIGHER TERRAIN FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS.
POLAN
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  66  38  62 /   0  10  10   0
ALW  39  67  43  62 /   0  10  10   0
PSC  33  68  41  65 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  33  62  36  63 /   0  10  20   0
HRI  32  67  39  65 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  33  61  37  61 /   0  10  20   0
RDM  29  63  26  68 /   0  10  10   0
LGD  32  66  35  61 /   0  20  20   0
GCD  30  64  30  61 /   0  10  10   0
DLS  36  65  41  65 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
SATURDAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






000
FXUS66 KPDT 190531
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS CIRRUS INCREASING OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE LOW. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE INCREASED WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLUMBIA BASIN
INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL HAVE BREEZY WEST WINDS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER THE CASCADES AND A LITTLE OVER THE BLUES.
OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.  94

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. THIN CIRRUS TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN200. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY BECOMING BKN100-150 IN THE MORNING THEN
LOWERING TO BKN-OVC040-080 IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
INCREASING TO 15-30KT BY AFTERNOON. 94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY AND UPPER 60S
TOMORROW...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  BREEZY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.  AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS
THE AREA...BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN SUNDAY
MORNING.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE A NICE DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  BY MONDAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE SET IN AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.  BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS ALL AREAS.  FOR NOW HAVE NOT ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT RULE IT OUT AS A POSSIBILITY.  EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY...EARLY TUESDAY.   WEBER

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH WILL BE OVER FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY OVER MOUNTAINS AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH MOVES INTO IDAHO/MONTANA FOR
DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR DECREASING POPS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE RIDGE. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT MOISTURE BEGINS
INCREASING IN HIGHER TERRAIN FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS.
POLAN
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  66  38  62 /   0  10  10   0
ALW  39  67  43  62 /   0  10  10   0
PSC  33  68  41  65 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  33  62  36  63 /   0  10  20   0
HRI  32  67  39  65 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  33  61  37  61 /   0  10  20   0
RDM  29  63  26  68 /   0  10  10   0
LGD  32  66  35  61 /   0  20  20   0
GCD  30  64  30  61 /   0  10  10   0
DLS  36  65  41  65 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
SATURDAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/







000
FXUS66 KPQR 190417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS OFF THE COAST...AND WILL
APPROACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST AS WELL. WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON EASTER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE
FAR NORTH COAST ZONES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH
ORIENTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD
CALIFORNIA FOR MORE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AS MORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER A DRY DAY TODAY...
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS OFF THE COAST AND
WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND LOWER OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY
PREVENT MUCH IF ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS FROM FORMING LATER TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE FRONT AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SATURDAY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS FAIRLY EARLY IN THE MORNING...SO
OVERALL SATURDAY WILL BE PRETTY WET MOST AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE
EAST OF THE CASCADES BY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE MODEST SIDE...BUT ALL
AREAS SHOULD GET SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN AREAS...SAY NORTH OF ABOUT SALEM
AND TILLAMOOK OR PERHAPS A BIT NORTH OF THAT WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS
THAN FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THE SHOWERS SHOULD DRAMATICALLY DECREASE
ALL AREAS THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON EASTERN SUNDAY. SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY...BUT THIS IS NOT
CERTAIN.

THE NEXT FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED AS ENERGY FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA. THE SYSTEM THEN BEGINS TO PUSH ONSHORE
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE
LOOKING CONVECTIVE IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IN
APRIL BEGINS TO LOOK MORE LIKE A THUNDERSTORM PATTERN. MODEL LIFTED
INDICES FALL BELOW ZERO OVER THE CASCADES AND IN CENTRAL OREGON LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...SO WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING
THUNDER TO OUR CASCADE ZONES FOR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL ORIENT THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE AS THE UPPER JET NOSES
INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW...MODELS SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES...AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HOVER IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG/KM RANGE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. AFTER THE FIRST LARGE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A BREAK IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST AROUND MID MORNING SAT...AND TO THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS AROUND MIDDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND 12Z-15Z SAT
AT THE COAST AND 18Z-20Z SAT AT INLAND TAF SITES. CONDITIONS TRENDING
TOWARD VFR LATER SAT AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING THEN
MVFR CIGS BECOMING LIKELY BY 18Z SAT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.
&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH OVER
THE WATERS. THE HIGH PRES GIVES WAY TO A FRONT LATER TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS LATER TONIGHT
AND SAT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS 30-35 KT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MOVING ASHORE AROUND SUNRISE SAT. WINDS THEN DIMINISH FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SAT EVENING INTO SUN. SEAS
APPEAR ON TRACK TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS AROUND
11 PM SAT NIGHT...PEAKING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5 AM SUN. SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN MORNING BUT REMAIN IN THE 13 TO 16 FT RANGE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT LATE MON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS SWELL TRAIN.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR LATER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 6
     AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     10 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM TO
     11 PM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..



000
FXUS66 KPQR 190417
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
917 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS OFF THE COAST...AND WILL
APPROACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST AS WELL. WEAK HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY FOR
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON EASTER...EXCEPT SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE
FAR NORTH COAST ZONES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH SOUTH
ORIENTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFF THE COAST AS ENERGY DIGS TOWARD
CALIFORNIA FOR MORE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...BUT THEN MOVE ONSHORE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MORE RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AS MORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER A DRY DAY TODAY...
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS OFF THE COAST AND
WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND LOWER OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY
PREVENT MUCH IF ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS FROM FORMING LATER TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE FRONT AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SATURDAY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS FAIRLY EARLY IN THE MORNING...SO
OVERALL SATURDAY WILL BE PRETTY WET MOST AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE
EAST OF THE CASCADES BY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE MODEST SIDE...BUT ALL
AREAS SHOULD GET SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN AREAS...SAY NORTH OF ABOUT SALEM
AND TILLAMOOK OR PERHAPS A BIT NORTH OF THAT WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS
THAN FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THE SHOWERS SHOULD DRAMATICALLY DECREASE
ALL AREAS THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON EASTERN SUNDAY. SOME MOISTURE MAY BRUSH THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY...BUT THIS IS NOT
CERTAIN.

THE NEXT FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED AS ENERGY FROM THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA. THE SYSTEM THEN BEGINS TO PUSH ONSHORE
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE
LOOKING CONVECTIVE IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IN
APRIL BEGINS TO LOOK MORE LIKE A THUNDERSTORM PATTERN. MODEL LIFTED
INDICES FALL BELOW ZERO OVER THE CASCADES AND IN CENTRAL OREGON LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...SO WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING
THUNDER TO OUR CASCADE ZONES FOR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL ORIENT THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE MORE NORTH TO
SOUTH...THUS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE AS THE UPPER JET NOSES
INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT...BUT WITH
THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW...MODELS SHOW THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES...AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HOVER IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG/KM RANGE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

LOOKS LIKE TUE AND WED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. AFTER THE FIRST LARGE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A BREAK IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.. /KMD
&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST AROUND MID MORNING SAT...AND TO THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS AROUND MIDDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AROUND 12Z-15Z SAT
AT THE COAST AND 18Z-20Z SAT AT INLAND TAF SITES. CONDITIONS TRENDING
TOWARD VFR LATER SAT AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING THEN
MVFR CIGS BECOMING LIKELY BY 18Z SAT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.
&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH OVER
THE WATERS. THE HIGH PRES GIVES WAY TO A FRONT LATER TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER ALL WATERS LATER TONIGHT
AND SAT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS 30-35 KT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MOVING ASHORE AROUND SUNRISE SAT. WINDS THEN DIMINISH FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SAT EVENING INTO SUN. SEAS
APPEAR ON TRACK TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO 17 TO 20 FT AT 16 SECONDS AROUND
11 PM SAT NIGHT...PEAKING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5 AM SUN. SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN MORNING BUT REMAIN IN THE 13 TO 16 FT RANGE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT...AND TO 10 FT LATE MON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS SWELL TRAIN.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR LATER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS. THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 6
     AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     10 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM TO
     11 PM PDT SATURDAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..




000
FXUS66 KMFR 190356
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE IS NOT NECESSARY THIS EVENING AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE INLAND
TONIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO MOVE EASTWARD, THEN
ONSHORE SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG
THE COAST AND FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD.
PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY, BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVER THE EAST SIDE, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, BUT IT WILL
KICK UP SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE INFORMATION
CONTAINED WITHIN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS STILL VALID AND IT
FOLLOWS BELOW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS TO AREAS NORTH
OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE SATURDAY (INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG) ALONG WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY
RAIN ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS, BUT
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME WAVE TURBULENCE
EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS PRETTY HIGH AS THE MODELS
HAVE REMAINED LOCKED ON TO THE VARIOUS FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR A
WHILE NOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THEN SWITCH TO SOUTH AND BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. SEAS WILL
ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ON SATURDAY, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WIND WAVE
COMPONENT, ALTHOUGH WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY AS WELL.  A VERY LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SWELLS OF 18-20 FEET
AND PERIODS OF ONLY 16 SECONDS, SEAS WILL BE VERY STEEP, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SWELLS WILL DECAY SOME PRIOR TO REACHING THE
INNER WATERS, SO THE WARNING DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST, BUT SEAS WILL BE AT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE
INNER WATERS. THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR
THAT TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED TO COVER A LARGER AREA. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS VARIOUS SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH
THE REGION. -WRIGHT


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT MOVING INLAND
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE COAST DURING SATURDAY MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN INLAND TO BE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN AND IN SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT
CLEARING AND DRYING CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY EVENING.

THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED THOUGH ON  SUNDAY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE GRANTS PASS AND ILLINOIS VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF IN THE LATE MORNING.

ON MONDAY....AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE
PACNW COAST WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND BRING A FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, MODELS INDICATE
SOUTHERLY  MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST
JET ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -1, THINK THERE IS VERY
LITTLE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING INLAND AND BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
TO MOST THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO MATCH
THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
AROUND 6000 TO 7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING AND LOWER MONDAY NIGHT TO
4500 TO 5000 FEET. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON AREA MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
-CMC

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND
GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IT WILL BE COOLER AND
UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE
OREGON COAST WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD. THE EC AND GFS SHOW
500MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -29 AND -32C MOVING OVERHEAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THOSE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED THUNDER. FOR NOW LEFT IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT IT`S SOMETHING THAT WE`LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THAT HAPPENS. AT ANY RATE, WE
COULD CATCH A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WARM FRONT SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE
ALEUTIANS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY
SENDING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. IT`S
POSSIBLE THIS FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP OR SLOW DOWN SOME BECAUSE IT`S
NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG
SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW,
THUS DRIVING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
FRIDAY. OF NOTE THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY (RMOP) SHOWS
A HIGH PROBABILITY (56%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (49%), THEN OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY (43%) THESE ARE
PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ310.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/CMC/TRW/MAP







000
FXUS66 KMFR 190356
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE IS NOT NECESSARY THIS EVENING AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE INLAND
TONIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO MOVE EASTWARD, THEN
ONSHORE SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG
THE COAST AND FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD.
PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY, BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVER THE EAST SIDE, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, BUT IT WILL
KICK UP SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE INFORMATION
CONTAINED WITHIN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS STILL VALID AND IT
FOLLOWS BELOW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS TO AREAS NORTH
OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE SATURDAY (INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG) ALONG WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY
RAIN ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS, BUT
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME WAVE TURBULENCE
EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS PRETTY HIGH AS THE MODELS
HAVE REMAINED LOCKED ON TO THE VARIOUS FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR A
WHILE NOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THEN SWITCH TO SOUTH AND BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. SEAS WILL
ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ON SATURDAY, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WIND WAVE
COMPONENT, ALTHOUGH WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY AS WELL.  A VERY LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SWELLS OF 18-20 FEET
AND PERIODS OF ONLY 16 SECONDS, SEAS WILL BE VERY STEEP, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SWELLS WILL DECAY SOME PRIOR TO REACHING THE
INNER WATERS, SO THE WARNING DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST, BUT SEAS WILL BE AT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE
INNER WATERS. THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR
THAT TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED TO COVER A LARGER AREA. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS VARIOUS SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH
THE REGION. -WRIGHT


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT MOVING INLAND
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE COAST DURING SATURDAY MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN INLAND TO BE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN AND IN SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT
CLEARING AND DRYING CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY EVENING.

THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED THOUGH ON  SUNDAY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE GRANTS PASS AND ILLINOIS VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF IN THE LATE MORNING.

ON MONDAY....AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE
PACNW COAST WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND BRING A FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, MODELS INDICATE
SOUTHERLY  MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST
JET ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -1, THINK THERE IS VERY
LITTLE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING INLAND AND BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
TO MOST THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO MATCH
THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
AROUND 6000 TO 7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING AND LOWER MONDAY NIGHT TO
4500 TO 5000 FEET. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON AREA MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
-CMC

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND
GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IT WILL BE COOLER AND
UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE
OREGON COAST WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD. THE EC AND GFS SHOW
500MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -29 AND -32C MOVING OVERHEAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THOSE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED THUNDER. FOR NOW LEFT IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT IT`S SOMETHING THAT WE`LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THAT HAPPENS. AT ANY RATE, WE
COULD CATCH A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WARM FRONT SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE
ALEUTIANS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY
SENDING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. IT`S
POSSIBLE THIS FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP OR SLOW DOWN SOME BECAUSE IT`S
NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG
SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW,
THUS DRIVING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
FRIDAY. OF NOTE THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY (RMOP) SHOWS
A HIGH PROBABILITY (56%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (49%), THEN OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY (43%) THESE ARE
PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ310.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/CMC/TRW/MAP







000
FXUS66 KMFR 190356
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE IS NOT NECESSARY THIS EVENING AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE INLAND
TONIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO MOVE EASTWARD, THEN
ONSHORE SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG
THE COAST AND FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD.
PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY, BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVER THE EAST SIDE, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, BUT IT WILL
KICK UP SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE INFORMATION
CONTAINED WITHIN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS STILL VALID AND IT
FOLLOWS BELOW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS TO AREAS NORTH
OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE SATURDAY (INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG) ALONG WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY
RAIN ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS, BUT
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME WAVE TURBULENCE
EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS PRETTY HIGH AS THE MODELS
HAVE REMAINED LOCKED ON TO THE VARIOUS FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR A
WHILE NOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THEN SWITCH TO SOUTH AND BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. SEAS WILL
ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ON SATURDAY, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WIND WAVE
COMPONENT, ALTHOUGH WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY AS WELL.  A VERY LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SWELLS OF 18-20 FEET
AND PERIODS OF ONLY 16 SECONDS, SEAS WILL BE VERY STEEP, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SWELLS WILL DECAY SOME PRIOR TO REACHING THE
INNER WATERS, SO THE WARNING DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST, BUT SEAS WILL BE AT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE
INNER WATERS. THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR
THAT TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED TO COVER A LARGER AREA. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS VARIOUS SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH
THE REGION. -WRIGHT


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT MOVING INLAND
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE COAST DURING SATURDAY MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN INLAND TO BE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN AND IN SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT
CLEARING AND DRYING CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY EVENING.

THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED THOUGH ON  SUNDAY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE GRANTS PASS AND ILLINOIS VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF IN THE LATE MORNING.

ON MONDAY....AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE
PACNW COAST WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND BRING A FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, MODELS INDICATE
SOUTHERLY  MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST
JET ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -1, THINK THERE IS VERY
LITTLE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING INLAND AND BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
TO MOST THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO MATCH
THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
AROUND 6000 TO 7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING AND LOWER MONDAY NIGHT TO
4500 TO 5000 FEET. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON AREA MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
-CMC

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND
GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IT WILL BE COOLER AND
UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE
OREGON COAST WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD. THE EC AND GFS SHOW
500MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -29 AND -32C MOVING OVERHEAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THOSE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED THUNDER. FOR NOW LEFT IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT IT`S SOMETHING THAT WE`LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THAT HAPPENS. AT ANY RATE, WE
COULD CATCH A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WARM FRONT SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE
ALEUTIANS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY
SENDING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. IT`S
POSSIBLE THIS FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP OR SLOW DOWN SOME BECAUSE IT`S
NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG
SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW,
THUS DRIVING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
FRIDAY. OF NOTE THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY (RMOP) SHOWS
A HIGH PROBABILITY (56%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (49%), THEN OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY (43%) THESE ARE
PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ310.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/CMC/TRW/MAP







000
FXUS66 KMFR 190356
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE IS NOT NECESSARY THIS EVENING AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE INLAND
TONIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO MOVE EASTWARD, THEN
ONSHORE SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG
THE COAST AND FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD.
PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY, BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVER THE EAST SIDE, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, BUT IT WILL
KICK UP SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE INFORMATION
CONTAINED WITHIN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS STILL VALID AND IT
FOLLOWS BELOW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS TO AREAS NORTH
OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE SATURDAY (INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG) ALONG WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY
RAIN ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS, BUT
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME WAVE TURBULENCE
EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS PRETTY HIGH AS THE MODELS
HAVE REMAINED LOCKED ON TO THE VARIOUS FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR A
WHILE NOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THEN SWITCH TO SOUTH AND BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. SEAS WILL
ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ON SATURDAY, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WIND WAVE
COMPONENT, ALTHOUGH WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY AS WELL.  A VERY LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SWELLS OF 18-20 FEET
AND PERIODS OF ONLY 16 SECONDS, SEAS WILL BE VERY STEEP, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SWELLS WILL DECAY SOME PRIOR TO REACHING THE
INNER WATERS, SO THE WARNING DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST, BUT SEAS WILL BE AT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE
INNER WATERS. THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR
THAT TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED TO COVER A LARGER AREA. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS VARIOUS SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH
THE REGION. -WRIGHT


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT MOVING INLAND
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE COAST DURING SATURDAY MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN INLAND TO BE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN AND IN SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT
CLEARING AND DRYING CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY EVENING.

THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED THOUGH ON  SUNDAY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE GRANTS PASS AND ILLINOIS VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF IN THE LATE MORNING.

ON MONDAY....AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE
PACNW COAST WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND BRING A FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, MODELS INDICATE
SOUTHERLY  MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST
JET ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -1, THINK THERE IS VERY
LITTLE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING INLAND AND BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
TO MOST THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO MATCH
THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
AROUND 6000 TO 7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING AND LOWER MONDAY NIGHT TO
4500 TO 5000 FEET. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON AREA MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
-CMC

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND
GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IT WILL BE COOLER AND
UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE
OREGON COAST WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD. THE EC AND GFS SHOW
500MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -29 AND -32C MOVING OVERHEAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THOSE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED THUNDER. FOR NOW LEFT IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT IT`S SOMETHING THAT WE`LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THAT HAPPENS. AT ANY RATE, WE
COULD CATCH A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WARM FRONT SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE
ALEUTIANS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY
SENDING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. IT`S
POSSIBLE THIS FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP OR SLOW DOWN SOME BECAUSE IT`S
NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG
SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW,
THUS DRIVING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
FRIDAY. OF NOTE THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY (RMOP) SHOWS
A HIGH PROBABILITY (56%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (49%), THEN OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY (43%) THESE ARE
PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ310.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/CMC/TRW/MAP







000
FXUS65 KBOI 190300
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...MID-HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WORKS INTO THE PAC NW. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT TERRAIN INFLUENCED WINDS. DRY AND MILD ON
SATURDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. NO UPDATES PLANNED
FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEST AROUND 30 KTS AT
10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A DRY COLD FRONT
SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN NEVADA WILL GRAZE THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS
COUNTY AND AREAS SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWED BY
TEMPERATURES UP TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BAKER TO
MCCALL.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWING A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY FOR
TUESDAY AS A DEEP COLD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL DROP BY AT
LEAST 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT.
EXPECT MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL
IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 190300
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...MID-HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WORKS INTO THE PAC NW. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT TERRAIN INFLUENCED WINDS. DRY AND MILD ON
SATURDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. NO UPDATES PLANNED
FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEST AROUND 30 KTS AT
10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A DRY COLD FRONT
SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN NEVADA WILL GRAZE THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS
COUNTY AND AREAS SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWED BY
TEMPERATURES UP TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BAKER TO
MCCALL.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWING A WARM
SPRING DAY ON MONDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY FOR
TUESDAY AS A DEEP COLD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL DROP BY AT
LEAST 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT.
EXPECT MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL
IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS66 KPDT 190230
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
733 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS CIRRUS INCREASING OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE LOW. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE INCREASED WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLUMBIA BASIN
INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL HAVE BREEZY WEST WINDS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER THE CASCADES AND A LITTLE OVER THE BLUES.
OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.  94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY AND UPPER 60S
TOMORROW...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  BREEZY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.  AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS
THE AREA...BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN SUNDAY
MORNING.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE A NICE DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  BY MONDAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE SET IN AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.  BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS ALL AREAS.  FOR NOW HAVE NOT ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT RULE IT OUT AS A POSSIBILITY.  EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY...EARLY TUESDAY.   WEBER

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH WILL BE OVER FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY OVER MOUNTAINS AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH MOVES INTO IDAHO/MONTANA FOR
DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR DECREASING POPS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE RIDGE. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT MOISTURE BEGINS
INCREASING IN HIGHER TERRAIN FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS.
POLAN

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
RIDGE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES
EAST TO THE COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE EAST OF THE CASCADES
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO
IDAHO/MONTANA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY, THUS ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO
BACK FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM THROUGH THE RIDGE TODAY WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 20000-25000 FT AGL AND THEN LOWERING TO MID LEVELS THIS
EVENING WITH BASES BEGINNING AROUND 15000-20000 FT THIS EVENING AND
THEN LOWERING TO 10000-15000 FT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AND THICKEN TO BKN
7000-11000 FT AGL. PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE WEAKENED THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 8-17 KTS THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN
EARLY THIS EVENING BECOME 6-12 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET,
THEN BECOME DRAINAGE WINDS OF 4-8 KTS BY 05Z/19TH AND PERSIST
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING 14-20 KTS BY 20Z/19TH.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  66  38  62 /   0  10  10   0
ALW  39  67  43  62 /   0  10  10   0
PSC  33  68  41  65 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  33  62  36  63 /   0  10  20   0
HRI  32  67  39  65 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  33  61  37  61 /   0  10  20   0
RDM  29  63  26  68 /   0  10  10   0
LGD  32  66  35  61 /   0  20  20   0
GCD  30  64  30  61 /   0  10  10   0
DLS  36  65  41  65 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
SATURDAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/





000
FXUS66 KPDT 190230
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
733 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS CIRRUS INCREASING OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE LOW. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE INCREASED WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLUMBIA BASIN
INTO CENTRAL OREGON WILL HAVE BREEZY WEST WINDS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER THE CASCADES AND A LITTLE OVER THE BLUES.
OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.  94

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 230 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY AND UPPER 60S
TOMORROW...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  BREEZY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.  AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS
THE AREA...BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN SUNDAY
MORNING.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE A NICE DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  BY MONDAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE SET IN AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.  BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS ALL AREAS.  FOR NOW HAVE NOT ADDED THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT RULE IT OUT AS A POSSIBILITY.  EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY...EARLY TUESDAY.   WEBER

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH WILL BE OVER FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY OVER MOUNTAINS AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH MOVES INTO IDAHO/MONTANA FOR
DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR DECREASING POPS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE RIDGE. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT MOISTURE BEGINS
INCREASING IN HIGHER TERRAIN FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS.
POLAN

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
RIDGE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES
EAST TO THE COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE EAST OF THE CASCADES
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO
IDAHO/MONTANA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY, THUS ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO
BACK FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM THROUGH THE RIDGE TODAY WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 20000-25000 FT AGL AND THEN LOWERING TO MID LEVELS THIS
EVENING WITH BASES BEGINNING AROUND 15000-20000 FT THIS EVENING AND
THEN LOWERING TO 10000-15000 FT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AND THICKEN TO BKN
7000-11000 FT AGL. PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE WEAKENED THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 8-17 KTS THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN
EARLY THIS EVENING BECOME 6-12 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET,
THEN BECOME DRAINAGE WINDS OF 4-8 KTS BY 05Z/19TH AND PERSIST
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING 14-20 KTS BY 20Z/19TH.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  35  66  38  62 /   0  10  10   0
ALW  39  67  43  62 /   0  10  10   0
PSC  33  68  41  65 /   0  10  10   0
YKM  33  62  36  63 /   0  10  20   0
HRI  32  67  39  65 /   0  10  10   0
ELN  33  61  37  61 /   0  10  20   0
RDM  29  63  26  68 /   0  10  10   0
LGD  32  66  35  61 /   0  20  20   0
GCD  30  64  30  61 /   0  10  10   0
DLS  36  65  41  65 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
SATURDAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/






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