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000
FXUS66 KMFR 062352
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
452 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

SHORT TERM...A COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS IS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TOO. AS CLOUDS DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE APPLEGATE...SHASTA...AND ROGUE VALLEYS...AND A
FROST ADVISORY AT NPWMFR HAS BEEN ISSUED. FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
AND MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS...HAVE BUMPED THE TEMPERATURES LOWER AND
THE MID 30S SEEM LIKELY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NEAR
RUCH...WEED...SHADY COVE...AND POTENTIALLY THE HILLS SURROUNDING
THE ROGUE VALLEY. IN MORE EXPOSED AREAS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S...AS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE
IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW AND
INITIATES A WARMUP...MORESO WEST OF THE CASCADES THAN EAST.
INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MAINLY MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND AS TEMPERATURES REACH ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WINDS WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE
SOUTH. INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH SURFACE WINDS THAT ALIGN WITH
700MB FLOW...WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS FROM EASTERN
SISKIYOU...THROUGH MODOC...KLAMATH...AND LAKE COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS SHOULD BE LESS SIGNIFICANT BUT STILL BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT SPSMFR HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THESE WINDS. ANY BURNING OPERATIONS
SHOULD CERTAINLY TAKE NOTE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS FROM
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF WIND SPEEDS...AND WE HAVE
NUDGED WIND SPEEDS UP SOME TO GET CLOSER TO HIGHER END GUIDANCE.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE EVALUATING WHETHER A WIND ADVISORY IS
APPROPRIATE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY MAY 9TH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY 13TH...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES THE WARM TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE EXTENDED
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL
BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIDE FROM SLIGHT POSITIONAL
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE OREGON COAST THAN
THE ECMWF THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BOTH MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME, BOTH
SOLUTIONS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FOCUS OF THE INSTABILITY IS MAINLY FROM THE CASCADE
CREST EASTWARD AND THE TRINITY ALPS, MOUNT SHASTA, MEDICINE LAKE
AREA IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. GIVEN THE DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE
EXTENDED...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH ON THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN.

THE LOW WILL GET KICKED OFF TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. THE ECMWF WOULD END ALL REMAINING
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES SHOWERS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SVEN/MND

AVIATION...FOR THE 07/00Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AND DOUGLAS
COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTSIDE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SUN SETS
AND THINGS QUIET DOWN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS ACROSS THE EASTSIDE, THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SISKIYOU COUNTY.
MEANWHILE, A CLOUD DECK WILL FORM CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE
UMPQUA BASIN WHICH COULD CREATE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS IN
OTHERWISE VFR AND MVFR SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND LESSEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS COULD BECOME ESPECIALLY BREEZY ACROSS THE
EAST SIDE. -SCHAAF

MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 6 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SMALL CRAFT...EXCEPT
FOR AN AREA OF HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     ORZ026-622-623.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ024-620.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BMS/NSK/SBN/MND



000
FXUS66 KMFR 062352
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
452 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

SHORT TERM...A COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS IS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TOO. AS CLOUDS DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE APPLEGATE...SHASTA...AND ROGUE VALLEYS...AND A
FROST ADVISORY AT NPWMFR HAS BEEN ISSUED. FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
AND MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS...HAVE BUMPED THE TEMPERATURES LOWER AND
THE MID 30S SEEM LIKELY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NEAR
RUCH...WEED...SHADY COVE...AND POTENTIALLY THE HILLS SURROUNDING
THE ROGUE VALLEY. IN MORE EXPOSED AREAS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S...AS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE
IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW AND
INITIATES A WARMUP...MORESO WEST OF THE CASCADES THAN EAST.
INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MAINLY MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND AS TEMPERATURES REACH ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WINDS WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE
SOUTH. INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH SURFACE WINDS THAT ALIGN WITH
700MB FLOW...WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS FROM EASTERN
SISKIYOU...THROUGH MODOC...KLAMATH...AND LAKE COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS SHOULD BE LESS SIGNIFICANT BUT STILL BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT SPSMFR HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THESE WINDS. ANY BURNING OPERATIONS
SHOULD CERTAINLY TAKE NOTE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS FROM
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF WIND SPEEDS...AND WE HAVE
NUDGED WIND SPEEDS UP SOME TO GET CLOSER TO HIGHER END GUIDANCE.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE EVALUATING WHETHER A WIND ADVISORY IS
APPROPRIATE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY MAY 9TH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY 13TH...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES THE WARM TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE EXTENDED
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL
BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIDE FROM SLIGHT POSITIONAL
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE OREGON COAST THAN
THE ECMWF THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BOTH MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME, BOTH
SOLUTIONS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FOCUS OF THE INSTABILITY IS MAINLY FROM THE CASCADE
CREST EASTWARD AND THE TRINITY ALPS, MOUNT SHASTA, MEDICINE LAKE
AREA IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. GIVEN THE DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE
EXTENDED...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH ON THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN.

THE LOW WILL GET KICKED OFF TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. THE ECMWF WOULD END ALL REMAINING
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES SHOWERS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SVEN/MND

AVIATION...FOR THE 07/00Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AND DOUGLAS
COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTSIDE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SUN SETS
AND THINGS QUIET DOWN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS ACROSS THE EASTSIDE, THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SISKIYOU COUNTY.
MEANWHILE, A CLOUD DECK WILL FORM CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE
UMPQUA BASIN WHICH COULD CREATE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS IN
OTHERWISE VFR AND MVFR SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND LESSEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS COULD BECOME ESPECIALLY BREEZY ACROSS THE
EAST SIDE. -SCHAAF

MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 6 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SMALL CRAFT...EXCEPT
FOR AN AREA OF HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     ORZ026-622-623.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ024-620.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BMS/NSK/SBN/MND



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPDT 062248 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
348 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY,
REACHING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG LAPSE
RATES WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THUS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON.
STORMS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY END ACROSS OUR WASHINGTON ZONES AND OVER NORTH CENTRAL
OREGON OVERNIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FEET MSL.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 4000 FEET
IN WALLOWA COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY. THUS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
END THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AND LOCALLY BREEZY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY SATURDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON
MOTHERS DAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH 60S TO LOW 70S
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE OR/CA COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND BEGIN MOVING INLAND MONDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME
THAT COULD AFFECT THE REGION...BUT THE MODELS ALL HANDLE THIS
SCENARIO SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTLY...WHICH LOWERS FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
THAT SAID...OREGON COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE EASTERN WASHINGTON STAYS DRY. THE
COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH ON TUESDAY...BUT WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...WHICH WOULD NOW INCLUDE WASHINGTON. THE
LOW WILL THEN ROTATE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUING
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT WESTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH
50S TO LOW 60S MOUNTAINS.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DESPITE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
3500 FT AGL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 3Z...BUT
HAVE REMOVED MENTION IN THE TAFS BECAUSE NOT CONFIDENT THAT
LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SITES. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
ARE NOW LIKELY NEAR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. SKIES WILL
THEN PARTIALLY CLEAR ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE 5-15 KTS...WITH SOME
AREAS GUSTING TO 25 KTS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  69  42  75 /  20  10   0   0
ALW  44  70  44  76 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  43  76  41  80 /  20   0   0   0
YKM  39  73  41  78 /  20   0   0   0
HRI  40  74  38  80 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  38  74  43  79 /  20   0   0   0
RDM  30  64  29  70 /  30  10   0   0
LGD  38  65  37  71 /  40  10  10  10
GCD  36  66  36  72 /  20  10  10  10
DLS  43  76  43  82 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82




000
FXUS66 KPDT 062248 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
348 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY,
REACHING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG LAPSE
RATES WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THUS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON.
STORMS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY END ACROSS OUR WASHINGTON ZONES AND OVER NORTH CENTRAL
OREGON OVERNIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FEET MSL.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 4000 FEET
IN WALLOWA COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY. THUS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
END THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AND LOCALLY BREEZY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY SATURDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON
MOTHERS DAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH 60S TO LOW 70S
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE OR/CA COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND BEGIN MOVING INLAND MONDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME
THAT COULD AFFECT THE REGION...BUT THE MODELS ALL HANDLE THIS
SCENARIO SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTLY...WHICH LOWERS FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
THAT SAID...OREGON COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE EASTERN WASHINGTON STAYS DRY. THE
COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH ON TUESDAY...BUT WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...WHICH WOULD NOW INCLUDE WASHINGTON. THE
LOW WILL THEN ROTATE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUING
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT WESTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH
50S TO LOW 60S MOUNTAINS.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DESPITE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
3500 FT AGL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 3Z...BUT
HAVE REMOVED MENTION IN THE TAFS BECAUSE NOT CONFIDENT THAT
LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SITES. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
ARE NOW LIKELY NEAR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. SKIES WILL
THEN PARTIALLY CLEAR ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE 5-15 KTS...WITH SOME
AREAS GUSTING TO 25 KTS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  69  42  75 /  20  10   0   0
ALW  44  70  44  76 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  43  76  41  80 /  20   0   0   0
YKM  39  73  41  78 /  20   0   0   0
HRI  40  74  38  80 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  38  74  43  79 /  20   0   0   0
RDM  30  64  29  70 /  30  10   0   0
LGD  38  65  37  71 /  40  10  10  10
GCD  36  66  36  72 /  20  10  10  10
DLS  43  76  43  82 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82



000
FXUS66 KPDT 062248 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
348 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY,
REACHING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG LAPSE
RATES WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THUS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON.
STORMS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY END ACROSS OUR WASHINGTON ZONES AND OVER NORTH CENTRAL
OREGON OVERNIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FEET MSL.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 4000 FEET
IN WALLOWA COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY. THUS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
END THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AND LOCALLY BREEZY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY SATURDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON
MOTHERS DAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH 60S TO LOW 70S
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE OR/CA COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND BEGIN MOVING INLAND MONDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME
THAT COULD AFFECT THE REGION...BUT THE MODELS ALL HANDLE THIS
SCENARIO SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTLY...WHICH LOWERS FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
THAT SAID...OREGON COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE EASTERN WASHINGTON STAYS DRY. THE
COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH ON TUESDAY...BUT WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...WHICH WOULD NOW INCLUDE WASHINGTON. THE
LOW WILL THEN ROTATE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUING
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT WESTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH
50S TO LOW 60S MOUNTAINS.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DESPITE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
3500 FT AGL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 3Z...BUT
HAVE REMOVED MENTION IN THE TAFS BECAUSE NOT CONFIDENT THAT
LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SITES. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
ARE NOW LIKELY NEAR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. SKIES WILL
THEN PARTIALLY CLEAR ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE 5-15 KTS...WITH SOME
AREAS GUSTING TO 25 KTS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  69  42  75 /  20  10   0   0
ALW  44  70  44  76 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  43  76  41  80 /  20   0   0   0
YKM  39  73  41  78 /  20   0   0   0
HRI  40  74  38  80 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  38  74  43  79 /  20   0   0   0
RDM  30  64  29  70 /  30  10   0   0
LGD  38  65  37  71 /  40  10  10  10
GCD  36  66  36  72 /  20  10  10  10
DLS  43  76  43  82 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82


  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 062146
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
238 PM PDT WED MAY  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION
WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERING IN THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.  AS WAS
FEARED...BUT MISJUDGED...SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERED A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS HAS GREATLY REDUCED THE AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE ENERGY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...SOME MID LEVEL
STRATUS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LEADING TO A LOT OF
SHALLOW CUMULUS...AND HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES WARMING A TOUCH
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FINALLY REACHING
60F. IN ADDITION...A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BEHIND THE VORT MAX THAT
CROSSED THE AREA EARLIER...HAS ALSO CAPPED CONVECTION.
NONETHELESS...AFTER MODIFYING LAPS SOUNDING DATA WITH THE CURRENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE SHOWS THAT WE NEED TO
REACH INTO THE 63F TO 65F RANGE TO SEE DEEPER CONVECTION FIRE WEST
OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS GENERAL IDEA IS ALSO CONSISTENT
WITH THE OBSERVED TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DALLES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.

SINCE WE MAY FLIRT WITH THE ABOVE TEMPERATURES...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...IT WAS REDUCED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES...NEAR HOOD RIVER AND THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES
WHERE CURRENT TRENDS IN CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AND THE LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN OUR CWA
IS MOST LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF OUR CWA HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND TIME OF YEAR SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY.

WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO GENERALLY DECREASE AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMES TO AN END LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER EASTERN LANE AND LINN COUNTIES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
TODAYS SHOWERS MOVES SOUTHWARD AND THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES FROM
THE TOP DOWN...EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES TO COME
TO AN END LATER THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
DIFFERENT VARIATIONS OF NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
CWA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE PAC NW WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING. A SEMI-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING ON
SUNDAY...CONTINUING UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY


&&


.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS DISSIPATE
AFTER 10Z THU...WITH DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THU.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z THU. SHOWERS DISSIPATE BETWEEN
08Z- 10Z THU. /27

&&

.MARINE...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ONSHORE...EXPECT RATHER QUIET
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AM. HIGH PRES
GRADUALLY REBUILDS OVER THE NE PAC ON THU...WITH THERMAL LOW PRES
BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. EXPECT A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND
PATTERN STARTING THU AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK...SO HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR
THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS SUGGEST LONG ENOUGH BREAKS BETWEEN NORTH WIND EVENTS SO
WILL NEED SEPARATE ADVISORIES FOR WINDS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
WEAK SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 062145
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
245 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY,
REACHING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG LAPSE
RATES WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THUS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON.
STORMS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY END ACROSS OUR WASHINGTON ZONES AND OVER NORTH CENTRAL
OREGON OVERNIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY OVER WALLOWA COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FEET MSL.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 4000 FEET
IN WALLOWA COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY. THUS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
END THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AND LOCALLY BREEZY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY SATURDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON
MOTHERS DAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH 60S TO LOW 70S
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE OR/CA COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND BEGIN MOVING INLAND MONDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME
THAT COULD AFFECT THE REGION...BUT THE MODELS ALL HANDLE THIS
SCENARIO SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTLY...WHICH LOWERS FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
THAT SAID...OREGON COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE EASTERN WASHINGTON STAYS DRY. THE
COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH ON TUESDAY...BUT WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...WHICH WOULD NOW INCLUDE WASHINGTON. THE
LOW WILL THEN ROTATE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUING
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT WESTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH
50S TO LOW 60S MOUNTAINS.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DESPITE SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3500 FT AGL. DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS 21Z-3Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS DECLINING. THEREFORE...ONLY HAVE MENTION AT KDLS AND
KRDM. ALSO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL EVEN BE SHOWERS AT
KPSC OR KALW GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD TRACK OF THE LOW. WINDS WILL BE 5-
15 KTS...WITH SOME AREAS GUSTING TO 25 KTS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. 82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  69  42  75 /  20  10   0   0
ALW  44  70  44  76 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  43  76  41  80 /  20   0   0   0
YKM  39  73  41  78 /  20   0   0   0
HRI  40  74  38  80 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  38  74  43  79 /  20   0   0   0
RDM  30  64  29  70 /  30  10   0   0
LGD  38  65  37  71 /  40  10  10  10
GCD  36  66  36  72 /  20  10  10  10
DLS  43  76  43  82 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/82/82



000
FXUS66 KMFR 062138
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
238 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...A COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOO. AS CLOUDS DIMINISH
SOME TONIGHT...FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
APPLEGATE...SHASTA...AND ROGUE VALLEYS...AND A FROST ADVISORY AT
NPWMFR HAS BEEN ISSUED. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AND MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDS...HAVE BUMPED THE TEMPERATURES LOWER AND THE MID
30S SEEM LIKELY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NEAR RUCH...WEED...SHADY
COVE...AND POTENTIALLY THE HILLS SURROUNDING THE ROGUE VALLEY. IN
MORE EXPOSED AREAS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S...AS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE IN THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW AND
INITIATES A WARMUP...MORESO WEST OF THE CASCADES THAN EAST.
INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MAINLY MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND AS TEMPERATURES REACH ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WINDS WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE
SOUTH. INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH SURFACE WINDS THAT ALIGN WITH
700MB FLOW...WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS FROM EASTERN
SISKIYOU...THROUGH MODOC...KLAMATH...AND LAKE COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS SHOULD BE LESS SIGNIFICANT BUT STILL BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT SPSMFR HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THESE WINDS. ANY BURNING OPERATIONS
SHOULD CERTAINLY TAKE NOTE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS FROM
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF WIND SPEEDS...AND WE HAVE
NUDGED WIND SPEEDS UP SOME TO GET CLOSER TO HIGHER END GUIDANCE.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE EVALUATING WHETHER A WIND ADVISORY IS
APPROPRIATE.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY MAY 9TH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY 13TH...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES THE WARM TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE EXTENDED
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL
BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIDE FROM SLIGHT POSITIONAL
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE OREGON COAST THAN
THE ECMWF THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BOTH MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME, BOTH
SOLUTIONS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FOCUS OF THE INSTABILITY IS MAINLY FROM THE CASCADE
CREST EASTWARD AND THE TRINITY ALPS, MOUNT SHASTA, MEDICINE LAKE
AREA IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. GIVEN THE DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE
EXTENDED...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH ON THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN.

THE LOW WILL GET KICKED OFF TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. THE ECMWF WOULD END ALL REMAINING
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES SHOWERS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SVEN/MND


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
OCCASIONALLY BECOMING OBSCURED. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING ALONG WITH ANY
REMAINING CONVECTION. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTSIDE VALLEYS AND
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST. PETRUCELLI/SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 6 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL PERIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SMALL CRAFT...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA
OF HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     ORZ026-622-623.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ024-620.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/MND/MND



000
FXUS66 KMFR 062138
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
238 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...A COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOO. AS CLOUDS DIMINISH
SOME TONIGHT...FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
APPLEGATE...SHASTA...AND ROGUE VALLEYS...AND A FROST ADVISORY AT
NPWMFR HAS BEEN ISSUED. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AND MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDS...HAVE BUMPED THE TEMPERATURES LOWER AND THE MID
30S SEEM LIKELY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NEAR RUCH...WEED...SHADY
COVE...AND POTENTIALLY THE HILLS SURROUNDING THE ROGUE VALLEY. IN
MORE EXPOSED AREAS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S...AS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE IN THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW AND
INITIATES A WARMUP...MORESO WEST OF THE CASCADES THAN EAST.
INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MAINLY MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND AS TEMPERATURES REACH ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WINDS WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE
SOUTH. INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH SURFACE WINDS THAT ALIGN WITH
700MB FLOW...WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS FROM EASTERN
SISKIYOU...THROUGH MODOC...KLAMATH...AND LAKE COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS SHOULD BE LESS SIGNIFICANT BUT STILL BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT SPSMFR HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THESE WINDS. ANY BURNING OPERATIONS
SHOULD CERTAINLY TAKE NOTE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS FROM
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF WIND SPEEDS...AND WE HAVE
NUDGED WIND SPEEDS UP SOME TO GET CLOSER TO HIGHER END GUIDANCE.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE EVALUATING WHETHER A WIND ADVISORY IS
APPROPRIATE.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY MAY 9TH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY 13TH...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES THE WARM TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE EXTENDED
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL
BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIDE FROM SLIGHT POSITIONAL
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE OREGON COAST THAN
THE ECMWF THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BOTH MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME, BOTH
SOLUTIONS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FOCUS OF THE INSTABILITY IS MAINLY FROM THE CASCADE
CREST EASTWARD AND THE TRINITY ALPS, MOUNT SHASTA, MEDICINE LAKE
AREA IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. GIVEN THE DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE
EXTENDED...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH ON THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN.

THE LOW WILL GET KICKED OFF TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. THE ECMWF WOULD END ALL REMAINING
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES SHOWERS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SVEN/MND


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
OCCASIONALLY BECOMING OBSCURED. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING ALONG WITH ANY
REMAINING CONVECTION. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTSIDE VALLEYS AND
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST. PETRUCELLI/SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 6 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL PERIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SMALL CRAFT...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA
OF HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     ORZ026-622-623.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ024-620.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/MND/MND



000
FXUS66 KMFR 062138
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
238 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...A COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOO. AS CLOUDS DIMINISH
SOME TONIGHT...FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
APPLEGATE...SHASTA...AND ROGUE VALLEYS...AND A FROST ADVISORY AT
NPWMFR HAS BEEN ISSUED. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AND MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDS...HAVE BUMPED THE TEMPERATURES LOWER AND THE MID
30S SEEM LIKELY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NEAR RUCH...WEED...SHADY
COVE...AND POTENTIALLY THE HILLS SURROUNDING THE ROGUE VALLEY. IN
MORE EXPOSED AREAS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S...AS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE IN THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW AND
INITIATES A WARMUP...MORESO WEST OF THE CASCADES THAN EAST.
INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MAINLY MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND AS TEMPERATURES REACH ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WINDS WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE
SOUTH. INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH SURFACE WINDS THAT ALIGN WITH
700MB FLOW...WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS FROM EASTERN
SISKIYOU...THROUGH MODOC...KLAMATH...AND LAKE COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS SHOULD BE LESS SIGNIFICANT BUT STILL BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT SPSMFR HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THESE WINDS. ANY BURNING OPERATIONS
SHOULD CERTAINLY TAKE NOTE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS FROM
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF WIND SPEEDS...AND WE HAVE
NUDGED WIND SPEEDS UP SOME TO GET CLOSER TO HIGHER END GUIDANCE.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE EVALUATING WHETHER A WIND ADVISORY IS
APPROPRIATE.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY MAY 9TH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY 13TH...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES THE WARM TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE EXTENDED
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL
BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIDE FROM SLIGHT POSITIONAL
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE OREGON COAST THAN
THE ECMWF THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BOTH MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME, BOTH
SOLUTIONS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FOCUS OF THE INSTABILITY IS MAINLY FROM THE CASCADE
CREST EASTWARD AND THE TRINITY ALPS, MOUNT SHASTA, MEDICINE LAKE
AREA IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. GIVEN THE DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE
EXTENDED...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH ON THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN.

THE LOW WILL GET KICKED OFF TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. THE ECMWF WOULD END ALL REMAINING
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES SHOWERS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SVEN/MND


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
OCCASIONALLY BECOMING OBSCURED. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING ALONG WITH ANY
REMAINING CONVECTION. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTSIDE VALLEYS AND
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST. PETRUCELLI/SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 6 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL PERIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SMALL CRAFT...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA
OF HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     ORZ026-622-623.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ024-620.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/MND/MND



000
FXUS66 KMFR 062138
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
238 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...A COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOO. AS CLOUDS DIMINISH
SOME TONIGHT...FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
APPLEGATE...SHASTA...AND ROGUE VALLEYS...AND A FROST ADVISORY AT
NPWMFR HAS BEEN ISSUED. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AND MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDS...HAVE BUMPED THE TEMPERATURES LOWER AND THE MID
30S SEEM LIKELY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS NEAR RUCH...WEED...SHADY
COVE...AND POTENTIALLY THE HILLS SURROUNDING THE ROGUE VALLEY. IN
MORE EXPOSED AREAS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S...AS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE IN THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW AND
INITIATES A WARMUP...MORESO WEST OF THE CASCADES THAN EAST.
INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MAINLY MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND AS TEMPERATURES REACH ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WINDS WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE
SOUTH. INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH SURFACE WINDS THAT ALIGN WITH
700MB FLOW...WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS FROM EASTERN
SISKIYOU...THROUGH MODOC...KLAMATH...AND LAKE COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS SHOULD BE LESS SIGNIFICANT BUT STILL BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT SPSMFR HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THESE WINDS. ANY BURNING OPERATIONS
SHOULD CERTAINLY TAKE NOTE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS FROM
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF WIND SPEEDS...AND WE HAVE
NUDGED WIND SPEEDS UP SOME TO GET CLOSER TO HIGHER END GUIDANCE.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE EVALUATING WHETHER A WIND ADVISORY IS
APPROPRIATE.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY MAY 9TH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY 13TH...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES THE WARM TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE EXTENDED
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL
BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIDE FROM SLIGHT POSITIONAL
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE OREGON COAST THAN
THE ECMWF THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BOTH MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME, BOTH
SOLUTIONS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FOCUS OF THE INSTABILITY IS MAINLY FROM THE CASCADE
CREST EASTWARD AND THE TRINITY ALPS, MOUNT SHASTA, MEDICINE LAKE
AREA IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. GIVEN THE DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE
EXTENDED...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH ON THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN.

THE LOW WILL GET KICKED OFF TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. THE ECMWF WOULD END ALL REMAINING
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES SHOWERS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SVEN/MND


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
OCCASIONALLY BECOMING OBSCURED. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING ALONG WITH ANY
REMAINING CONVECTION. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTSIDE VALLEYS AND
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST. PETRUCELLI/SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 6 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL PERIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SMALL CRAFT...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA
OF HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     ORZ026-622-623.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ024-620.

CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/MND/MND


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 062114
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
314 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BE TIED TO AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN NV/CA BORDER. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH EXCEPT ACROSS AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MTNS
NORTH AND EAST OF MCCALL AND ALONG THE S-CENTRAL ID AND NV BORDER
WHICH KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY THURSDAY THE
LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER CENTRAL CA AND THE MAIN DRIVING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENERGY CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ONE SUCH FEATURE
THROUGH SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY. THERE IS DIFFERENCE ON THE INTENSITY
OF RESULTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT MTNS IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN ON
THURSDAY. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND N-NE FLOW ALOFT
WILL RAMP UP WINDS OVER SE OREGON ZONES ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE BAKER VALLEY. A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY AS WELL...INCREASING POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES AND BOISE MTNS TO THE ID/NV
BORDER. THURSDAY IS THE COOLEST DAY WITH SOME WARMING OVER SE
OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WHILE REMAINING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SW IDAHO.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE
PATTERN. UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY FOR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO
THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY REACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY.
BOTH 12Z GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE OPEN TROUGH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST
5-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY AND THE BAKER CITY VALLEY WHERE 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUST TO NEAR
30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40 KNOTS ABOVE
10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 062114
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
314 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BE TIED TO AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN NV/CA BORDER. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH EXCEPT ACROSS AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MTNS
NORTH AND EAST OF MCCALL AND ALONG THE S-CENTRAL ID AND NV BORDER
WHICH KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY THURSDAY THE
LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER CENTRAL CA AND THE MAIN DRIVING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENERGY CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ONE SUCH FEATURE
THROUGH SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY. THERE IS DIFFERENCE ON THE INTENSITY
OF RESULTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT MTNS IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN ON
THURSDAY. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND N-NE FLOW ALOFT
WILL RAMP UP WINDS OVER SE OREGON ZONES ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE BAKER VALLEY. A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY AS WELL...INCREASING POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES AND BOISE MTNS TO THE ID/NV
BORDER. THURSDAY IS THE COOLEST DAY WITH SOME WARMING OVER SE
OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WHILE REMAINING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SW IDAHO.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE
PATTERN. UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY FOR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO
THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY REACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY.
BOTH 12Z GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE OPEN TROUGH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST
5-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY AND THE BAKER CITY VALLEY WHERE 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUST TO NEAR
30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40 KNOTS ABOVE
10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 062114
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
314 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BE TIED TO AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN NV/CA BORDER. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH EXCEPT ACROSS AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MTNS
NORTH AND EAST OF MCCALL AND ALONG THE S-CENTRAL ID AND NV BORDER
WHICH KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY THURSDAY THE
LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER CENTRAL CA AND THE MAIN DRIVING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENERGY CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ONE SUCH FEATURE
THROUGH SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY. THERE IS DIFFERENCE ON THE INTENSITY
OF RESULTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT MTNS IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN ON
THURSDAY. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND N-NE FLOW ALOFT
WILL RAMP UP WINDS OVER SE OREGON ZONES ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE BAKER VALLEY. A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY AS WELL...INCREASING POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES AND BOISE MTNS TO THE ID/NV
BORDER. THURSDAY IS THE COOLEST DAY WITH SOME WARMING OVER SE
OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WHILE REMAINING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SW IDAHO.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE
PATTERN. UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY FOR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO
THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY REACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY.
BOTH 12Z GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE OPEN TROUGH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST
5-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY AND THE BAKER CITY VALLEY WHERE 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUST TO NEAR
30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40 KNOTS ABOVE
10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 062114
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
314 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BE TIED TO AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN NV/CA BORDER. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH EXCEPT ACROSS AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MTNS
NORTH AND EAST OF MCCALL AND ALONG THE S-CENTRAL ID AND NV BORDER
WHICH KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY THURSDAY THE
LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER CENTRAL CA AND THE MAIN DRIVING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENERGY CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ONE SUCH FEATURE
THROUGH SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY. THERE IS DIFFERENCE ON THE INTENSITY
OF RESULTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT MTNS IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN ON
THURSDAY. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND N-NE FLOW ALOFT
WILL RAMP UP WINDS OVER SE OREGON ZONES ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE BAKER VALLEY. A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY AS WELL...INCREASING POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES AND BOISE MTNS TO THE ID/NV
BORDER. THURSDAY IS THE COOLEST DAY WITH SOME WARMING OVER SE
OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WHILE REMAINING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SW IDAHO.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE
PATTERN. UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY FOR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO
THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY REACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY.
BOTH 12Z GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE OPEN TROUGH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST
5-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY AND THE BAKER CITY VALLEY WHERE 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUST TO NEAR
30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40 KNOTS ABOVE
10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 062114
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
314 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BE TIED TO AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN NV/CA BORDER. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH EXCEPT ACROSS AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MTNS
NORTH AND EAST OF MCCALL AND ALONG THE S-CENTRAL ID AND NV BORDER
WHICH KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY THURSDAY THE
LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER CENTRAL CA AND THE MAIN DRIVING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENERGY CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ONE SUCH FEATURE
THROUGH SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY. THERE IS DIFFERENCE ON THE INTENSITY
OF RESULTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT MTNS IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN ON
THURSDAY. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND N-NE FLOW ALOFT
WILL RAMP UP WINDS OVER SE OREGON ZONES ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE BAKER VALLEY. A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY AS WELL...INCREASING POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES AND BOISE MTNS TO THE ID/NV
BORDER. THURSDAY IS THE COOLEST DAY WITH SOME WARMING OVER SE
OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WHILE REMAINING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SW IDAHO.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE
PATTERN. UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY FOR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO
THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY REACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY.
BOTH 12Z GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE OPEN TROUGH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST
5-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY AND THE BAKER CITY VALLEY WHERE 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUST TO NEAR
30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40 KNOTS ABOVE
10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 062114
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
314 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BE TIED TO AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN NV/CA BORDER. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH EXCEPT ACROSS AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MTNS
NORTH AND EAST OF MCCALL AND ALONG THE S-CENTRAL ID AND NV BORDER
WHICH KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY THURSDAY THE
LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER CENTRAL CA AND THE MAIN DRIVING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENERGY CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ONE SUCH FEATURE
THROUGH SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY. THERE IS DIFFERENCE ON THE INTENSITY
OF RESULTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT MTNS IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN ON
THURSDAY. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND N-NE FLOW ALOFT
WILL RAMP UP WINDS OVER SE OREGON ZONES ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE BAKER VALLEY. A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY AS WELL...INCREASING POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES AND BOISE MTNS TO THE ID/NV
BORDER. THURSDAY IS THE COOLEST DAY WITH SOME WARMING OVER SE
OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WHILE REMAINING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SW IDAHO.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE
PATTERN. UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY FOR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO
THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY REACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY.
BOTH 12Z GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE OPEN TROUGH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST
5-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY AND THE BAKER CITY VALLEY WHERE 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUST TO NEAR
30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40 KNOTS ABOVE
10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 062114
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
314 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BE TIED TO AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN NV/CA BORDER. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH EXCEPT ACROSS AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MTNS
NORTH AND EAST OF MCCALL AND ALONG THE S-CENTRAL ID AND NV BORDER
WHICH KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY THURSDAY THE
LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER CENTRAL CA AND THE MAIN DRIVING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENERGY CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ONE SUCH FEATURE
THROUGH SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY. THERE IS DIFFERENCE ON THE INTENSITY
OF RESULTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT MTNS IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN ON
THURSDAY. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND N-NE FLOW ALOFT
WILL RAMP UP WINDS OVER SE OREGON ZONES ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE BAKER VALLEY. A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY AS WELL...INCREASING POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES AND BOISE MTNS TO THE ID/NV
BORDER. THURSDAY IS THE COOLEST DAY WITH SOME WARMING OVER SE
OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WHILE REMAINING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SW IDAHO.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE
PATTERN. UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY FOR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO
THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY REACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY.
BOTH 12Z GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE OPEN TROUGH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST
5-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY AND THE BAKER CITY VALLEY WHERE 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUST TO NEAR
30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40 KNOTS ABOVE
10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 062114
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
314 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BE TIED TO AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN NV/CA BORDER. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH EXCEPT ACROSS AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MTNS
NORTH AND EAST OF MCCALL AND ALONG THE S-CENTRAL ID AND NV BORDER
WHICH KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY THURSDAY THE
LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER CENTRAL CA AND THE MAIN DRIVING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENERGY CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ONE SUCH FEATURE
THROUGH SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY. THERE IS DIFFERENCE ON THE INTENSITY
OF RESULTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WITH
GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT MTNS IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN ON
THURSDAY. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND N-NE FLOW ALOFT
WILL RAMP UP WINDS OVER SE OREGON ZONES ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE BAKER VALLEY. A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY AS WELL...INCREASING POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES AND BOISE MTNS TO THE ID/NV
BORDER. THURSDAY IS THE COOLEST DAY WITH SOME WARMING OVER SE
OREGON ZONES FRIDAY WHILE REMAINING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SW IDAHO.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE
PATTERN. UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY FOR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO
THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY REACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY.
BOTH 12Z GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE OPEN TROUGH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST
5-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY AND THE BAKER CITY VALLEY WHERE 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUST TO NEAR
30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40 KNOTS ABOVE
10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS66 KPDT 061742 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1042 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP
AND PINCH OFF OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW, COMBINED WITH
TODAY`S DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING, WILL CAUSE STEEP LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE
LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. AFTERNOON PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL SUPPORT LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE GORGE
AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OREGON FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WORDING, PRECIP CHANCES, WINDS AND HIGH
TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK YET AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OFF
THE OR/CA COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. RIGHT NOW SHOWER COVERAGE IS VERY LIMITED. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS
THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE SET UP RIGHT OVER THE OR/CA COAST PROVIDING GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL OREGON...AND SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST
OREGON. THIS HAS THE SETUP FOR DECENT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. GFS STALLS THE LOW OUT THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE CENTER ABOUT 150 MILES ENE FROM MONDAY`S
POSITION...SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIAL DECENT DAY FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM AND
MAKE UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DESPITE SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 3500 FT AGL. DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS 21Z-3Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
DECLINING. THEREFORE...ONLY HAVE MENTION AT KDLS AND KRDM. ALSO HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL EVEN BE SHOWERS AT KPSC OR KALW GIVEN
THE SOUTHWARD TRACK OF THE LOW. WINDS WILL BE 5-15 KTS...WITH SOME
AREAS GUSTING TO 25 KTS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  39  68  41 /  20  20  10   0
ALW  65  42  70  43 /  20  20  10   0
PSC  69  42  75  43 /  20  10   0   0
YKM  64  40  73  43 /  30  20   0   0
HRI  68  40  73  41 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  62  38  71  41 /  30  20   0   0
RDM  57  32  64  33 /  30  30  10   0
LGD  59  39  64  39 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  59  34  64  35 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  65  41  75  44 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/82




000
FXUS66 KPDT 061742 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1042 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP
AND PINCH OFF OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW, COMBINED WITH
TODAY`S DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING, WILL CAUSE STEEP LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE
LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. AFTERNOON PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL SUPPORT LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE GORGE
AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OREGON FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WORDING, PRECIP CHANCES, WINDS AND HIGH
TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK YET AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OFF
THE OR/CA COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. RIGHT NOW SHOWER COVERAGE IS VERY LIMITED. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS
THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE SET UP RIGHT OVER THE OR/CA COAST PROVIDING GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL OREGON...AND SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST
OREGON. THIS HAS THE SETUP FOR DECENT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. GFS STALLS THE LOW OUT THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE CENTER ABOUT 150 MILES ENE FROM MONDAY`S
POSITION...SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIAL DECENT DAY FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM AND
MAKE UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DESPITE SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 3500 FT AGL. DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS 21Z-3Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
DECLINING. THEREFORE...ONLY HAVE MENTION AT KDLS AND KRDM. ALSO HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL EVEN BE SHOWERS AT KPSC OR KALW GIVEN
THE SOUTHWARD TRACK OF THE LOW. WINDS WILL BE 5-15 KTS...WITH SOME
AREAS GUSTING TO 25 KTS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  39  68  41 /  20  20  10   0
ALW  65  42  70  43 /  20  20  10   0
PSC  69  42  75  43 /  20  10   0   0
YKM  64  40  73  43 /  30  20   0   0
HRI  68  40  73  41 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  62  38  71  41 /  30  20   0   0
RDM  57  32  64  33 /  30  30  10   0
LGD  59  39  64  39 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  59  34  64  35 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  65  41  75  44 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/82




000
FXUS66 KPDT 061649
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
949 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP
AND PINCH OFF OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW, COMBINED WITH
TODAY`S DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING, WILL CAUSE STEEP LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE
LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. AFTERNOON PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL SUPPORT LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE GORGE
AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OREGON FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WORDING, PRECIP CHANCES, WINDS AND HIGH
TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK YET AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OFF
THE OR/CA COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. RIGHT NOW SHOWER COVERAGE IS VERY LIMITED. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS
THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE SET UP RIGHT OVER THE OR/CA COAST PROVIDING GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL OREGON...AND SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST
OREGON. THIS HAS THE SETUP FOR DECENT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. GFS STALLS THE LOW OUT THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE CENTER ABOUT 150 MILES ENE FROM MONDAY`S
POSITION...SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIAL DECENT DAY FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM AND
MAKE UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME BRIEF CLEARING THIS
MORNING...BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-6Z. RIGHT
NOW CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL...AND WITH STEEP LAPS RATES ANYWHERE
SHOWERS DEVELOP...CAN`T RULE OUT THUNDER. HOWEVER HAVE ONLY GONE
WITH A TEMPO -TSRA FOR KDLS...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR KYKM...AND
KBDN. OTHERWISE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY ENOUGH TO HAVE VCTS FOR OTHER
TAF SITES. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
BETWEEN 21Z-01Z. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5- 15 KTS...WITH SOME AREAS
GUSTING TO 25 KTS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  39  68  41 /  20  20  10   0
ALW  65  42  70  43 /  20  20  10   0
PSC  69  42  75  43 /  20  10   0   0
YKM  64  40  73  43 /  30  20   0   0
HRI  68  40  73  41 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  62  38  71  41 /  30  20   0   0
RDM  57  32  64  33 /  30  30  10   0
LGD  59  39  64  39 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  59  34  64  35 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  65  41  75  44 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/82




000
FXUS66 KPDT 061649
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
949 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP
AND PINCH OFF OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW, COMBINED WITH
TODAY`S DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING, WILL CAUSE STEEP LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE
LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON SOUTH TO CENTRAL OREGON. AFTERNOON PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL SUPPORT LOCAL BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE GORGE
AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OREGON FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WORDING, PRECIP CHANCES, WINDS AND HIGH
TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK YET AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OFF
THE OR/CA COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. RIGHT NOW SHOWER COVERAGE IS VERY LIMITED. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS
THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE SET UP RIGHT OVER THE OR/CA COAST PROVIDING GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL OREGON...AND SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST
OREGON. THIS HAS THE SETUP FOR DECENT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. GFS STALLS THE LOW OUT THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE CENTER ABOUT 150 MILES ENE FROM MONDAY`S
POSITION...SETTING UP ANOTHER POTENTIAL DECENT DAY FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM AND
MAKE UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME BRIEF CLEARING THIS
MORNING...BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-6Z. RIGHT
NOW CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL...AND WITH STEEP LAPS RATES ANYWHERE
SHOWERS DEVELOP...CAN`T RULE OUT THUNDER. HOWEVER HAVE ONLY GONE
WITH A TEMPO -TSRA FOR KDLS...AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR KYKM...AND
KBDN. OTHERWISE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY ENOUGH TO HAVE VCTS FOR OTHER
TAF SITES. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
BETWEEN 21Z-01Z. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5- 15 KTS...WITH SOME AREAS
GUSTING TO 25 KTS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  39  68  41 /  20  20  10   0
ALW  65  42  70  43 /  20  20  10   0
PSC  69  42  75  43 /  20  10   0   0
YKM  64  40  73  43 /  30  20   0   0
HRI  68  40  73  41 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  62  38  71  41 /  30  20   0   0
RDM  57  32  64  33 /  30  30  10   0
LGD  59  39  64  39 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  59  34  64  35 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  65  41  75  44 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/89/82



000
FXUS66 KPQR 061633
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
929 AM PDT WED MAY  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MAY BRING COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS REMAINS HIGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS TODAY WILL BE
ON THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOSING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A DISTINCT VORT MAX APPARENT
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS IN THE PROCESS OF SWINGING ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH SO FAR. SUSPECT SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX WILL TEMPORARILY SQUASH CONVECTION
LATER THIS MORNING. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SECOND WEAK VORT MAX
OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON...WHICH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST WILL SWING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND LIKELY
HELP CONVECTION ALONG. ALTHOUGH...THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS
SECOND VORT MAX DOES NOT APPEAR NEAR AS STRONG AS THE VORT MAX MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. AS SOLAR INPUT INCREASES...EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO
BREAK UP WITH SOME SUNSHINE LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THIS SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING QUICKLY
THOUGH. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST 300 TO 700 J/KG OF MU CAPE WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THIS AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
SURPRISINGLY...BOTH MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE SHORT TERM WELL SO THE AFOREMENTIONED CAPE VALUES SEEM
REASONABLE. WHILE THE FORECAST CAPE IS STILL RELATIVELY SKINNY WHEN
EXAMINING MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT IS A BIT FATTER AT -20C THAN WE
TYPICALLY SEE HERE IN THE SPRING...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER TODAY.
THERE IS ALSO A BIT MORE 0-6KM SHEAR FORECAST LATER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND COAST RANGE...THAN
WE TYPICALLY SEE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SPRINGTIME. THIS
MAY ALSO HELP ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO PERSIST AND TRACK A
BIT LONGER THAN NORMAL WHEN COMPARED TO OUR TYPICAL SPRINGTIME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO.

NAM CAPE VALUES HIGHLIGHT THE EAST SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE AND THE
CASCADES AS THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SSEO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PAINTS A SIMILAR PICTURE AS
WELL. MEANWHILE...THE SREF 3 HR PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IS HIGHEST
OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE VALLEY...WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THAT 3
HOUR PERIOD. THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH AS WE CAN RECALL SEEING FROM THE
SREF THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...BUMPED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WORDING FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
ALL THIS SAID...THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
FOR LATER TODAY SO THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND PROGRESS LATER TODAY.

EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. TJ


&&


.AVIATION...COOL...SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN A MIX OF
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR
INLAND TAF SITES...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY
UNDER HEAVER SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY
10Z THU...WITH DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TODAY. SHOWERS END BETWEEN 08Z-10Z THU. /27


&&


.MARINE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER THIS MORNING...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRES
LOOKS TO REBUILD OVER THE NE PAC ON THU...WITH THERMAL LOW PRES
BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. EXPECT A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. A WEAK SYSTEM LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.

SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.


&&


.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT THIS MORNING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 061605
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1005 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES THIS
MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWING MOISTURE FEEDING NORTH
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO WITH HIGH BASED SHOWERS FORMING
OVER S-CENTRAL ID THIS MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL EXPAND TO COVER THE EASTERN BOISE AND WEST-
CENTRAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. IN SE OREGON...THE DYNAMICS FROM
UPPER LOW WILL FEED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOWER VALLEYS TO INCLUDE THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
WEISER VALLEY WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. GUSTY WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS
AGAIN TODAY THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN
THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY TO INCLUDE MOUNTAIN HOME. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE
BAKER CITY VALLEY WHERE 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUST TO NEAR 30 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED. WINDS ALOFT WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40 KNOTS ABOVE 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW WILL DROP FROM
WASHINGTON SOUTH INTO NRN CA BY 12Z THU...THEN INTO CENTRAL CA BY
00Z FRI. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BACK FROM
SW TODAY TO S TONIGHT TO SE THROUGH E ON THU. MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IS THU AFTERNOON...AS A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE MOVES
NORTH MAINLY ACROSS OUR SW IDAHO ZONES. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A
LITTLE MORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR TODAY...THERE IS JUST
BARELY ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO RETAIN THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW...
INSTABILITY IS BEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...AND
THE MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS THERE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL TODAY AND
TOMORROW... WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THERE IS A LARGE
DISCREPANCY IN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOISE TOMORROW...WITH THE WARM
MET AT 70 AND THE COOLER MAV AT 58. WE STAYED IN BETWEEN BUT
CLOSER TO THE MAV AS WE EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
GREATLY IMPACT THE AREA/S ABILITY TO WARM UP. WINDS WILL BE BRISK
OUT OF THE NW TO NORTH THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL TREND CONTINUING
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED BUT THEN BEGINNING TO
DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY. THE FLOW PATTERN AROUND THIS LOW WILL BRING CHANCE POPS TO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST OREGON.
CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AND WILL BE NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO BUT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST EXPECTING
POPS DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH SOUTHEAST OREGON REMAINING
DRY. SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST WITH MODELS DEVELOPING
A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE COULD BE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW HAVE A
FASTER TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE AREA DRY
BUT WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THERE COULD
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. LATEST
FORECAST ALREADY HAS SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MODELS
DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. MONDAY THE GFS IS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE CUTOFF LOW BUT BY TUESDAY
MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE THE SAME LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER
WESTERN OREGON. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE
TREND OF CHANCE POPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 061605
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1005 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IS DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE CASCADES THIS
MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWING MOISTURE FEEDING NORTH
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO WITH HIGH BASED SHOWERS FORMING
OVER S-CENTRAL ID THIS MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL EXPAND TO COVER THE EASTERN BOISE AND WEST-
CENTRAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. IN SE OREGON...THE DYNAMICS FROM
UPPER LOW WILL FEED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOWER VALLEYS TO INCLUDE THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
WEISER VALLEY WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. GUSTY WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS
AGAIN TODAY THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN
THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY TO INCLUDE MOUNTAIN HOME. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE
BAKER CITY VALLEY WHERE 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUST TO NEAR 30 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED. WINDS ALOFT WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40 KNOTS ABOVE 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW WILL DROP FROM
WASHINGTON SOUTH INTO NRN CA BY 12Z THU...THEN INTO CENTRAL CA BY
00Z FRI. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BACK FROM
SW TODAY TO S TONIGHT TO SE THROUGH E ON THU. MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IS THU AFTERNOON...AS A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE MOVES
NORTH MAINLY ACROSS OUR SW IDAHO ZONES. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A
LITTLE MORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR TODAY...THERE IS JUST
BARELY ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO RETAIN THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW...
INSTABILITY IS BEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...AND
THE MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS THERE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL TODAY AND
TOMORROW... WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THERE IS A LARGE
DISCREPANCY IN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOISE TOMORROW...WITH THE WARM
MET AT 70 AND THE COOLER MAV AT 58. WE STAYED IN BETWEEN BUT
CLOSER TO THE MAV AS WE EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
GREATLY IMPACT THE AREA/S ABILITY TO WARM UP. WINDS WILL BE BRISK
OUT OF THE NW TO NORTH THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL TREND CONTINUING
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED BUT THEN BEGINNING TO
DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY. THE FLOW PATTERN AROUND THIS LOW WILL BRING CHANCE POPS TO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST OREGON.
CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AND WILL BE NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO BUT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST EXPECTING
POPS DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH SOUTHEAST OREGON REMAINING
DRY. SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST WITH MODELS DEVELOPING
A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE COULD BE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW HAVE A
FASTER TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE AREA DRY
BUT WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THERE COULD
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. LATEST
FORECAST ALREADY HAS SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MODELS
DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. MONDAY THE GFS IS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE CUTOFF LOW BUT BY TUESDAY
MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE THE SAME LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER
WESTERN OREGON. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE
TREND OF CHANCE POPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS66 KMFR 061550
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
850 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE BEING OBSERVED THIS
MORNING...COURTESY OF A COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THE LATEST HOURLY HRRR MODEL ALSO SHOWS SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND IN NORTHERN LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES BASED ON THIS LATEST GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY EXISTS TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINES WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY
700MB WINDS.

LASTLY...WE`LL BE EXAMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. THIS MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES THANKS TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. TONIGHT WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST
SOUTHERN OREGON VALLEYS...THOUGH SOME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
LOCATIONS COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WE`LL ADDRESS THIS IN
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE
UPCOMING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
OCCASIONALLY BECOMING OBSCURED. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 6 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SMALL CRAFT, BUT THE MODELS HINT
THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALES OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING HAS MADE LESS PROGRESS IN OUR DIRECTION THAN EXPECTED, BUT
NEVERTHELESS, IT CONTINUES TO MEANDER TO THE SOUTH. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BY TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO
IT ISN`T EXPECTED TO DO MUCH OVER OUR AREA, BUT IT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADE CREST EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A CHANGE TODAY.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES, THEN
THEY WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW, PRIMARILY OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA. THE ONE THING THAT MAY BE A MINOR IMPACT
TOMORROW IS WIND ON THE EAST SIDE. THE LOW WILL BE VERTICALLY
STACKED, AND AS IT PULLS TO THE SOUTH, STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL MIX DOWN OVER EASTERN KLAMATH, LAKE, AND MODOC
COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FALL SHORT
OF ADVISORY LEVEL, WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY, A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE PACNW WHICH WILL MOVE OVER
US DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING US MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN BRIEFLY TAKES ON THE LOOK OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THEN THE RIDGE GETS PINCHED OFF
AND MOVES NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
OVER US FROM THE WEST. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION
OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE SHOULD
SEE COOLER, SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, MAY 6, 2015...AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A COOL POOL ALOFT AT
500 MB WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -27 AND -29 C MOVING OVERHEAD AT
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING RESULTING IN INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS PUTS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
ALONG THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE MOST
OF THE ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR THERE, BUT THERE`S ALSO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS TO BE RAIN PRODUCERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CAL ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO MODOC COUNTY. HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW
700 MB WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 30-40 KTS FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND THIS ALONG WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AND TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN SOME OF THOSE
STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN AT THE SURFACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS COULD RESULT IN MODERATE RECOVERIES LATE TONIGHT
ALONG THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES, BUT MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY WHICH IS A
GOOD THING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/TRW/MAP



000
FXUS66 KMFR 061550
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
850 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE BEING OBSERVED THIS
MORNING...COURTESY OF A COOL UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THE LATEST HOURLY HRRR MODEL ALSO SHOWS SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND IN NORTHERN LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES BASED ON THIS LATEST GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY EXISTS TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINES WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY
700MB WINDS.

LASTLY...WE`LL BE EXAMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. THIS MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES THANKS TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. TONIGHT WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST
SOUTHERN OREGON VALLEYS...THOUGH SOME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
LOCATIONS COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WE`LL ADDRESS THIS IN
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE
UPCOMING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
OCCASIONALLY BECOMING OBSCURED. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 6 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SMALL CRAFT, BUT THE MODELS HINT
THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALES OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING HAS MADE LESS PROGRESS IN OUR DIRECTION THAN EXPECTED, BUT
NEVERTHELESS, IT CONTINUES TO MEANDER TO THE SOUTH. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BY TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO
IT ISN`T EXPECTED TO DO MUCH OVER OUR AREA, BUT IT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADE CREST EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A CHANGE TODAY.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES, THEN
THEY WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW, PRIMARILY OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA. THE ONE THING THAT MAY BE A MINOR IMPACT
TOMORROW IS WIND ON THE EAST SIDE. THE LOW WILL BE VERTICALLY
STACKED, AND AS IT PULLS TO THE SOUTH, STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL MIX DOWN OVER EASTERN KLAMATH, LAKE, AND MODOC
COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FALL SHORT
OF ADVISORY LEVEL, WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY, A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE PACNW WHICH WILL MOVE OVER
US DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING US MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN BRIEFLY TAKES ON THE LOOK OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THEN THE RIDGE GETS PINCHED OFF
AND MOVES NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
OVER US FROM THE WEST. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION
OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE SHOULD
SEE COOLER, SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, MAY 6, 2015...AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A COOL POOL ALOFT AT
500 MB WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -27 AND -29 C MOVING OVERHEAD AT
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING RESULTING IN INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS PUTS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
ALONG THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE MOST
OF THE ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR THERE, BUT THERE`S ALSO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS TO BE RAIN PRODUCERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CAL ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO MODOC COUNTY. HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW
700 MB WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 30-40 KTS FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND THIS ALONG WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AND TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN SOME OF THOSE
STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN AT THE SURFACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS COULD RESULT IN MODERATE RECOVERIES LATE TONIGHT
ALONG THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES, BUT MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY WHICH IS A
GOOD THING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/TRW/MAP




000
FXUS66 KPDT 061138 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
438 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER OREGON
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT LAPSE
RATES. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MODELS STILL INDICATE -28 AT 500MB SO THE STRONGER SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
STABLE AND THE LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD. BY THURSDAY THE LOW HAS MOVED
INTO CALIFORNIA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH
A NORTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK YET AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OFF THE
OR/CA COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES BY SUNDAY EVENING.  RIGHT NOW
SHOWER COVERAGE IS VERY LIMITED.  SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO
THE COAST. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP
RIGHT OVER THE OR/CA COAST PROVIDING GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL
OREGON...AND SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST OREGON.  THIS HAS THE SETUP
FOR DECENT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
GFS STALLS THE LOW OUT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE CENTER ABOUT
150 MILES ENE FROM MONDAY`S POSITION...SETTING UP ANOTHER
POTENTIAL DECENT DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SYSTEM AND MAKE UPDATES. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME BRIEF CLEARING THIS MORNING...BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-6Z. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL...AND
WITH STEEP LAPS RATES ANYWHERE SHOWERS DEVELOP...CAN`T RULE OUT
THUNDER.  HOWEVER HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A TEMPO -TSRA FOR KDLS...AND A
PROB30 GROUP FOR KYKM...AND KBDN.  OTHERWISE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
ENOUGH TO HAVE VCTS FOR OTHER TAF SITES.  HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 21Z-01Z. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5-
15 KTS...WITH SOME AREAS GUSTING TO 25 KTS.  GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  39  68  41 /  20  20  10   0
ALW  65  42  70  43 /  20  20  10   0
PSC  68  42  75  43 /  20  10   0   0
YKM  65  40  73  43 /  30  20   0   0
HRI  67  40  73  41 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  62  38  71  41 /  40  20   0   0
RDM  58  32  64  33 /  30  30  10   0
LGD  59  39  64  39 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  59  34  64  35 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  66  41  75  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/89/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 061138 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
438 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER OREGON
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT LAPSE
RATES. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MODELS STILL INDICATE -28 AT 500MB SO THE STRONGER SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
STABLE AND THE LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD. BY THURSDAY THE LOW HAS MOVED
INTO CALIFORNIA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH
A NORTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK YET AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OFF THE
OR/CA COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES BY SUNDAY EVENING.  RIGHT NOW
SHOWER COVERAGE IS VERY LIMITED.  SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO
THE COAST. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP
RIGHT OVER THE OR/CA COAST PROVIDING GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL
OREGON...AND SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST OREGON.  THIS HAS THE SETUP
FOR DECENT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
GFS STALLS THE LOW OUT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE CENTER ABOUT
150 MILES ENE FROM MONDAY`S POSITION...SETTING UP ANOTHER
POTENTIAL DECENT DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SYSTEM AND MAKE UPDATES. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME BRIEF CLEARING THIS MORNING...BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-6Z. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL...AND
WITH STEEP LAPS RATES ANYWHERE SHOWERS DEVELOP...CAN`T RULE OUT
THUNDER.  HOWEVER HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A TEMPO -TSRA FOR KDLS...AND A
PROB30 GROUP FOR KYKM...AND KBDN.  OTHERWISE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
ENOUGH TO HAVE VCTS FOR OTHER TAF SITES.  HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 21Z-01Z. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5-
15 KTS...WITH SOME AREAS GUSTING TO 25 KTS.  GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  39  68  41 /  20  20  10   0
ALW  65  42  70  43 /  20  20  10   0
PSC  68  42  75  43 /  20  10   0   0
YKM  65  40  73  43 /  30  20   0   0
HRI  67  40  73  41 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  62  38  71  41 /  40  20   0   0
RDM  58  32  64  33 /  30  30  10   0
LGD  59  39  64  39 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  59  34  64  35 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  66  41  75  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/89/89



000
FXUS66 KPDT 061138 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
438 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER OREGON
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT LAPSE
RATES. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MODELS STILL INDICATE -28 AT 500MB SO THE STRONGER SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
STABLE AND THE LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD. BY THURSDAY THE LOW HAS MOVED
INTO CALIFORNIA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH
A NORTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK YET AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OFF THE
OR/CA COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES BY SUNDAY EVENING.  RIGHT NOW
SHOWER COVERAGE IS VERY LIMITED.  SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO
THE COAST. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP
RIGHT OVER THE OR/CA COAST PROVIDING GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL
OREGON...AND SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST OREGON.  THIS HAS THE SETUP
FOR DECENT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
GFS STALLS THE LOW OUT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE CENTER ABOUT
150 MILES ENE FROM MONDAY`S POSITION...SETTING UP ANOTHER
POTENTIAL DECENT DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SYSTEM AND MAKE UPDATES. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME BRIEF CLEARING THIS MORNING...BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-6Z. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL...AND
WITH STEEP LAPS RATES ANYWHERE SHOWERS DEVELOP...CAN`T RULE OUT
THUNDER.  HOWEVER HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A TEMPO -TSRA FOR KDLS...AND A
PROB30 GROUP FOR KYKM...AND KBDN.  OTHERWISE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
ENOUGH TO HAVE VCTS FOR OTHER TAF SITES.  HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 21Z-01Z. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5-
15 KTS...WITH SOME AREAS GUSTING TO 25 KTS.  GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  39  68  41 /  20  20  10   0
ALW  65  42  70  43 /  20  20  10   0
PSC  68  42  75  43 /  20  10   0   0
YKM  65  40  73  43 /  30  20   0   0
HRI  67  40  73  41 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  62  38  71  41 /  40  20   0   0
RDM  58  32  64  33 /  30  30  10   0
LGD  59  39  64  39 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  59  34  64  35 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  66  41  75  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/89/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 061138 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
438 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER OREGON
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT LAPSE
RATES. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MODELS STILL INDICATE -28 AT 500MB SO THE STRONGER SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
STABLE AND THE LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD. BY THURSDAY THE LOW HAS MOVED
INTO CALIFORNIA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH
A NORTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK YET AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OFF THE
OR/CA COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES BY SUNDAY EVENING.  RIGHT NOW
SHOWER COVERAGE IS VERY LIMITED.  SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO
THE COAST. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP
RIGHT OVER THE OR/CA COAST PROVIDING GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL
OREGON...AND SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST OREGON.  THIS HAS THE SETUP
FOR DECENT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
GFS STALLS THE LOW OUT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE CENTER ABOUT
150 MILES ENE FROM MONDAY`S POSITION...SETTING UP ANOTHER
POTENTIAL DECENT DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SYSTEM AND MAKE UPDATES. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME BRIEF CLEARING THIS MORNING...BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-6Z. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL...AND
WITH STEEP LAPS RATES ANYWHERE SHOWERS DEVELOP...CAN`T RULE OUT
THUNDER.  HOWEVER HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A TEMPO -TSRA FOR KDLS...AND A
PROB30 GROUP FOR KYKM...AND KBDN.  OTHERWISE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
ENOUGH TO HAVE VCTS FOR OTHER TAF SITES.  HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 21Z-01Z. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5-
15 KTS...WITH SOME AREAS GUSTING TO 25 KTS.  GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  39  68  41 /  20  20  10   0
ALW  65  42  70  43 /  20  20  10   0
PSC  68  42  75  43 /  20  10   0   0
YKM  65  40  73  43 /  30  20   0   0
HRI  67  40  73  41 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  62  38  71  41 /  40  20   0   0
RDM  58  32  64  33 /  30  30  10   0
LGD  59  39  64  39 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  59  34  64  35 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  66  41  75  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/89/89



000
FXUS66 KPQR 061018
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
317 AM PDT WED MAY  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL UPPER LOW PRES AREA OVER WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND THU. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONCE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON THU. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRES TO BUILD OVER PAC
NW...WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THU THROUGH SUN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
COOL UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON...WITH SPOKES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. FIRST SPOKE NOW
BRINGING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NW OREGON AS OF 2 AM. THESE SHOWERS ARE
NOT ALL THE INTENSE...BUT CAN EXPECT A BRIEF DOWNPOUR FROM TIME TO
TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON AND INTO CENTRAL
OREGON...THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTHWARD. AIR MASS
ALOFT WILL COOL A LOT MORE THIS AM AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB...OR ABOUT 25K FT...RUNNING AT -25 TO -30 DEG
BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE BUBBLY CLOUDS AND THUS
BETTER BUOYANCY ALOFT...RESULTING IN MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
AND PRIMARILY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS
SAID...SHOWERS WILL STILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE. ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS DIVE SOUTHWARD. BY THU AM...THE LOW WILL HAVE
PUSHED INTO NE CALIF. WITH THE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE MOTION ALOFT AROUND
THE LOW...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PUSH INTO THE SE HALF OF
OREGON AND UP AGAINST THE E SLOPES OF THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADES. WILL KEEP MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR CASCADES S OF SANTIAM
PASS FOR THU AM. BUT I SUSPECT THAT MAY STILL BE OVERDONE AND INSTEAD
MAY JUST HAVE SOME SCRAWNY CUMULUS BUILDUPS.  THREAT OF SHOWERS ENDS
THU AFTERNOON AS LOW WILL PULL TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH.

ONCE THE LOW DEPARTS...HIGH PRES WILL BE BUILDING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
BRING BACK A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO W WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON. SO
AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDS...WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THU AND
FRI. WITH COOL AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S...AND POSSIBLY AS COOL AS THE MIDDLE 30S IN MORE
RURAL LOCATIONS. THIS WILL BOOST POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FROST
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND MORE RURAL AREAS OF
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY. BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER
OR NOT THE WINDS GO CALM AND SKIES CLEAR. WILL HAVE DAY SHIFT
RE-EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER A COOL START TO THU...TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY WARM. INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S
ON THU...THEN THE UPPER 70S ON FRI. THIS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS MODELS
WHICH HAVE 850 MB TEMPS JUMPING SOME 5 TO 8 DEG FROM THU TO FRI. EVEN
COASTAL AREAS WILL WARM BUT STILL ONLY IN THE 60S.  ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES INLAND. INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR INLAND TAF SITES...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY UNDER HEAVER SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AFTER 18Z TODAY.
&&

.MARINE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER THIS MORNING...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRES LOOKS TO REBUILD OVER THE NE PAC ON THU...WITH THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. EXPECT A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. A WEAK SYSTEM
LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.

SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
CONDITIONS FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM TODAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 061018
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
317 AM PDT WED MAY  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL UPPER LOW PRES AREA OVER WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND THU. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONCE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON THU. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRES TO BUILD OVER PAC
NW...WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THU THROUGH SUN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
COOL UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON...WITH SPOKES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. FIRST SPOKE NOW
BRINGING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NW OREGON AS OF 2 AM. THESE SHOWERS ARE
NOT ALL THE INTENSE...BUT CAN EXPECT A BRIEF DOWNPOUR FROM TIME TO
TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON AND INTO CENTRAL
OREGON...THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTHWARD. AIR MASS
ALOFT WILL COOL A LOT MORE THIS AM AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB...OR ABOUT 25K FT...RUNNING AT -25 TO -30 DEG
BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE BUBBLY CLOUDS AND THUS
BETTER BUOYANCY ALOFT...RESULTING IN MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
AND PRIMARILY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS
SAID...SHOWERS WILL STILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE. ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS DIVE SOUTHWARD. BY THU AM...THE LOW WILL HAVE
PUSHED INTO NE CALIF. WITH THE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE MOTION ALOFT AROUND
THE LOW...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PUSH INTO THE SE HALF OF
OREGON AND UP AGAINST THE E SLOPES OF THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADES. WILL KEEP MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR CASCADES S OF SANTIAM
PASS FOR THU AM. BUT I SUSPECT THAT MAY STILL BE OVERDONE AND INSTEAD
MAY JUST HAVE SOME SCRAWNY CUMULUS BUILDUPS.  THREAT OF SHOWERS ENDS
THU AFTERNOON AS LOW WILL PULL TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH.

ONCE THE LOW DEPARTS...HIGH PRES WILL BE BUILDING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
BRING BACK A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO W WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON. SO
AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDS...WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THU AND
FRI. WITH COOL AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S...AND POSSIBLY AS COOL AS THE MIDDLE 30S IN MORE
RURAL LOCATIONS. THIS WILL BOOST POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FROST
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND MORE RURAL AREAS OF
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY. BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER
OR NOT THE WINDS GO CALM AND SKIES CLEAR. WILL HAVE DAY SHIFT
RE-EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER A COOL START TO THU...TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY WARM. INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S
ON THU...THEN THE UPPER 70S ON FRI. THIS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS MODELS
WHICH HAVE 850 MB TEMPS JUMPING SOME 5 TO 8 DEG FROM THU TO FRI. EVEN
COASTAL AREAS WILL WARM BUT STILL ONLY IN THE 60S.  ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES INLAND. INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR INLAND TAF SITES...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY UNDER HEAVER SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AFTER 18Z TODAY.
&&

.MARINE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER THIS MORNING...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRES LOOKS TO REBUILD OVER THE NE PAC ON THU...WITH THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. EXPECT A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. A WEAK SYSTEM
LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.

SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
CONDITIONS FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM TODAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 061018
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
317 AM PDT WED MAY  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL UPPER LOW PRES AREA OVER WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND THU. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONCE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON THU. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRES TO BUILD OVER PAC
NW...WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THU THROUGH SUN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
COOL UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON...WITH SPOKES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. FIRST SPOKE NOW
BRINGING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NW OREGON AS OF 2 AM. THESE SHOWERS ARE
NOT ALL THE INTENSE...BUT CAN EXPECT A BRIEF DOWNPOUR FROM TIME TO
TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON AND INTO CENTRAL
OREGON...THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTHWARD. AIR MASS
ALOFT WILL COOL A LOT MORE THIS AM AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB...OR ABOUT 25K FT...RUNNING AT -25 TO -30 DEG
BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE BUBBLY CLOUDS AND THUS
BETTER BUOYANCY ALOFT...RESULTING IN MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
AND PRIMARILY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS
SAID...SHOWERS WILL STILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE. ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS DIVE SOUTHWARD. BY THU AM...THE LOW WILL HAVE
PUSHED INTO NE CALIF. WITH THE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE MOTION ALOFT AROUND
THE LOW...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PUSH INTO THE SE HALF OF
OREGON AND UP AGAINST THE E SLOPES OF THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADES. WILL KEEP MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR CASCADES S OF SANTIAM
PASS FOR THU AM. BUT I SUSPECT THAT MAY STILL BE OVERDONE AND INSTEAD
MAY JUST HAVE SOME SCRAWNY CUMULUS BUILDUPS.  THREAT OF SHOWERS ENDS
THU AFTERNOON AS LOW WILL PULL TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH.

ONCE THE LOW DEPARTS...HIGH PRES WILL BE BUILDING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
BRING BACK A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO W WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON. SO
AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDS...WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THU AND
FRI. WITH COOL AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S...AND POSSIBLY AS COOL AS THE MIDDLE 30S IN MORE
RURAL LOCATIONS. THIS WILL BOOST POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FROST
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND MORE RURAL AREAS OF
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY. BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER
OR NOT THE WINDS GO CALM AND SKIES CLEAR. WILL HAVE DAY SHIFT
RE-EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER A COOL START TO THU...TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY WARM. INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S
ON THU...THEN THE UPPER 70S ON FRI. THIS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS MODELS
WHICH HAVE 850 MB TEMPS JUMPING SOME 5 TO 8 DEG FROM THU TO FRI. EVEN
COASTAL AREAS WILL WARM BUT STILL ONLY IN THE 60S.  ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES INLAND. INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR INLAND TAF SITES...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY UNDER HEAVER SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AFTER 18Z TODAY.
&&

.MARINE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER THIS MORNING...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRES LOOKS TO REBUILD OVER THE NE PAC ON THU...WITH THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. EXPECT A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. A WEAK SYSTEM
LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.

SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
CONDITIONS FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM TODAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 061018
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
317 AM PDT WED MAY  6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL UPPER LOW PRES AREA OVER WASHINGTON WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND THU. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONCE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON THU. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRES TO BUILD OVER PAC
NW...WITH DRIER WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THU THROUGH SUN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
COOL UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON...WITH SPOKES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. FIRST SPOKE NOW
BRINGING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NW OREGON AS OF 2 AM. THESE SHOWERS ARE
NOT ALL THE INTENSE...BUT CAN EXPECT A BRIEF DOWNPOUR FROM TIME TO
TIME.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON AND INTO CENTRAL
OREGON...THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTHWARD. AIR MASS
ALOFT WILL COOL A LOT MORE THIS AM AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB...OR ABOUT 25K FT...RUNNING AT -25 TO -30 DEG
BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE BUBBLY CLOUDS AND THUS
BETTER BUOYANCY ALOFT...RESULTING IN MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE COAST RANGE
AND PRIMARILY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS
SAID...SHOWERS WILL STILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE. ANY OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS DIVE SOUTHWARD. BY THU AM...THE LOW WILL HAVE
PUSHED INTO NE CALIF. WITH THE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE MOTION ALOFT AROUND
THE LOW...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PUSH INTO THE SE HALF OF
OREGON AND UP AGAINST THE E SLOPES OF THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADES. WILL KEEP MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR CASCADES S OF SANTIAM
PASS FOR THU AM. BUT I SUSPECT THAT MAY STILL BE OVERDONE AND INSTEAD
MAY JUST HAVE SOME SCRAWNY CUMULUS BUILDUPS.  THREAT OF SHOWERS ENDS
THU AFTERNOON AS LOW WILL PULL TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH.

ONCE THE LOW DEPARTS...HIGH PRES WILL BE BUILDING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
BRING BACK A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TO W WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON. SO
AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDS...WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THU AND
FRI. WITH COOL AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S...AND POSSIBLY AS COOL AS THE MIDDLE 30S IN MORE
RURAL LOCATIONS. THIS WILL BOOST POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FROST
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND MORE RURAL AREAS OF
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY. BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER
OR NOT THE WINDS GO CALM AND SKIES CLEAR. WILL HAVE DAY SHIFT
RE-EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL. AFTER A COOL START TO THU...TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY WARM. INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S
ON THU...THEN THE UPPER 70S ON FRI. THIS SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS MODELS
WHICH HAVE 850 MB TEMPS JUMPING SOME 5 TO 8 DEG FROM THU TO FRI. EVEN
COASTAL AREAS WILL WARM BUT STILL ONLY IN THE 60S.  ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES INLAND. INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR INLAND TAF SITES...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBY UNDER HEAVER SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AFTER 18Z TODAY.
&&

.MARINE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER THIS MORNING...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRES LOOKS TO REBUILD OVER THE NE PAC ON THU...WITH THERMAL LOW
PRES BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. EXPECT A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. A WEAK SYSTEM
LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL.

SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
CONDITIONS FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM TODAY.
&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 060933
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
233 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER OREGON
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT LAPSE
RATES. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MODELS STILL INDICATE -28 AT 500MB SO THE STRONGER SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
STABLE AND THE LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD. BY THURSDAY THE LOW HAS MOVED
INTO CALIFORNIA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH
A NORTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK YET AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OFF THE
OR/CA COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES BY SUNDAY EVENING.  RIGHT NOW
SHOWER COVERAGE IS VERY LIMITED.  SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO
THE COAST. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP
RIGHT OVER THE OR/CA COAST PROVIDING GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL
OREGON...AND SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST OREGON.  THIS HAS THE SETUP
FOR DECENT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
GFS STALLS THE LOW OUT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE CENTER ABOUT
150 MILES ENE FROM MONDAY`S POSITION...SETTING UP ANOTHER
POTENTIAL DECENT DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SYSTEM AND MAKE UPDATES. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS SYSTEM...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 4-9
THOUSAND FEET ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER SOME BRIEF CLEARING,
DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM 20Z-04Z. HAVE COVERED
THIS WITH VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 04Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THOUGH KRDM, KBDN AND KDLS MAY HAVE
GUSTS TO 25 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  39  68  41 /  20  20  10   0
ALW  65  42  70  43 /  20  20  10   0
PSC  68  42  75  43 /  20  10   0   0
YKM  65  40  73  43 /  30  20   0   0
HRI  67  40  73  41 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  62  38  71  41 /  40  20   0   0
RDM  58  32  64  33 /  30  30  10   0
LGD  59  39  64  39 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  59  34  64  35 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  66  41  75  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/89/89




000
FXUS66 KPDT 060933
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
233 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER OREGON
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT LAPSE
RATES. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MODELS STILL INDICATE -28 AT 500MB SO THE STRONGER SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
STABLE AND THE LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD. BY THURSDAY THE LOW HAS MOVED
INTO CALIFORNIA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH
A NORTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK YET AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OFF THE
OR/CA COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES BY SUNDAY EVENING.  RIGHT NOW
SHOWER COVERAGE IS VERY LIMITED.  SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO
THE COAST. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP
RIGHT OVER THE OR/CA COAST PROVIDING GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL
OREGON...AND SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NORTHEAST OREGON.  THIS HAS THE SETUP
FOR DECENT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
GFS STALLS THE LOW OUT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE CENTER ABOUT
150 MILES ENE FROM MONDAY`S POSITION...SETTING UP ANOTHER
POTENTIAL DECENT DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SYSTEM AND MAKE UPDATES. WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS SYSTEM...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 4-9
THOUSAND FEET ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER SOME BRIEF CLEARING,
DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM 20Z-04Z. HAVE COVERED
THIS WITH VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 04Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THOUGH KRDM, KBDN AND KDLS MAY HAVE
GUSTS TO 25 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  39  68  41 /  20  20  10   0
ALW  65  42  70  43 /  20  20  10   0
PSC  68  42  75  43 /  20  10   0   0
YKM  65  40  73  43 /  30  20   0   0
HRI  67  40  73  41 /  20  10   0   0
ELN  62  38  71  41 /  40  20   0   0
RDM  58  32  64  33 /  30  30  10   0
LGD  59  39  64  39 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  59  34  64  35 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  66  41  75  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/89/89



000
FXUS66 KMFR 060918
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
218 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING HAS MADE LESS PROGRESS IN OUR DIRECTION THAN EXPECTED, BUT
NEVERTHELESS, IT CONTINUES TO MEANDER TO THE SOUTH. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BY TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO
IT ISN`T EXPECTED TO DO MUCH OVER OUR AREA, BUT IT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADE CREST EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A CHANGE TODAY.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES, THEN
THEY WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW, PRIMARILY OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA. THE ONE THING THAT MAY BE A MINOR IMPACT
TOMORROW IS WIND ON THE EAST SIDE. THE LOW WILL BE VERTICALLY
STACKED, AND AS IT PULLS TO THE SOUTH, STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL MIX DOWN OVER EASTERN KLAMATH, LAKE, AND MODOC
COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FALL SHORT
OF ADVISORY LEVEL, WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY, A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE PACNW WHICH WILL MOVE OVER
US DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING US MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN BRIEFLY TAKES ON THE LOOK OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THEN THE RIDGE GETS PINCHED OFF
AND MOVES NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
OVER US FROM THE WEST. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION
OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE SHOULD
SEE COOLER, SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, MAY 6, 2015...AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A COOL POOL ALOFT AT
500 MB WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -27 AND -29 C MOVING OVERHEAD AT
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING RESULTING IN INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS PUTS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
ALONG THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE MOST
OF THE ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR THERE, BUT THERE`S ALSO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS TO BE RAIN PRODUCERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CAL ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO MODOC COUNTY. HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW
700 MB WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 30-40 KTS FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND THIS ALONG WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AND TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN SOME OF THOSE
STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN AT THE SURFACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS COULD RESULT IN MODERATE RECOVERIES LATE TONIGHT
ALONG THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES, BUT MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY WHICH IS A
GOOD THING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN WILL OCCASIONALLY BE
OBSCURED. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 6 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SMALL CRAFT, BUT THE MODELS HINT
THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALES OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM
        THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 060918
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
218 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING HAS MADE LESS PROGRESS IN OUR DIRECTION THAN EXPECTED, BUT
NEVERTHELESS, IT CONTINUES TO MEANDER TO THE SOUTH. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BY TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO
IT ISN`T EXPECTED TO DO MUCH OVER OUR AREA, BUT IT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADE CREST EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A CHANGE TODAY.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES, THEN
THEY WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW, PRIMARILY OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA. THE ONE THING THAT MAY BE A MINOR IMPACT
TOMORROW IS WIND ON THE EAST SIDE. THE LOW WILL BE VERTICALLY
STACKED, AND AS IT PULLS TO THE SOUTH, STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL MIX DOWN OVER EASTERN KLAMATH, LAKE, AND MODOC
COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FALL SHORT
OF ADVISORY LEVEL, WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY, A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE PACNW WHICH WILL MOVE OVER
US DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING US MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN BRIEFLY TAKES ON THE LOOK OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THEN THE RIDGE GETS PINCHED OFF
AND MOVES NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
OVER US FROM THE WEST. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION
OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE SHOULD
SEE COOLER, SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, MAY 6, 2015...AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A COOL POOL ALOFT AT
500 MB WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -27 AND -29 C MOVING OVERHEAD AT
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING RESULTING IN INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS PUTS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
ALONG THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE MOST
OF THE ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR THERE, BUT THERE`S ALSO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS TO BE RAIN PRODUCERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CAL ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO MODOC COUNTY. HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW
700 MB WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 30-40 KTS FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND THIS ALONG WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AND TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN SOME OF THOSE
STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN AT THE SURFACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS COULD RESULT IN MODERATE RECOVERIES LATE TONIGHT
ALONG THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES, BUT MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY WHICH IS A
GOOD THING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN WILL OCCASIONALLY BE
OBSCURED. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 6 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SMALL CRAFT, BUT THE MODELS HINT
THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALES OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM
        THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 060918
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
218 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING HAS MADE LESS PROGRESS IN OUR DIRECTION THAN EXPECTED, BUT
NEVERTHELESS, IT CONTINUES TO MEANDER TO THE SOUTH. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BY TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO
IT ISN`T EXPECTED TO DO MUCH OVER OUR AREA, BUT IT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADE CREST EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A CHANGE TODAY.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES, THEN
THEY WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW, PRIMARILY OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA. THE ONE THING THAT MAY BE A MINOR IMPACT
TOMORROW IS WIND ON THE EAST SIDE. THE LOW WILL BE VERTICALLY
STACKED, AND AS IT PULLS TO THE SOUTH, STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL MIX DOWN OVER EASTERN KLAMATH, LAKE, AND MODOC
COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FALL SHORT
OF ADVISORY LEVEL, WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY, A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE PACNW WHICH WILL MOVE OVER
US DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING US MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN BRIEFLY TAKES ON THE LOOK OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THEN THE RIDGE GETS PINCHED OFF
AND MOVES NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
OVER US FROM THE WEST. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION
OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE SHOULD
SEE COOLER, SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, MAY 6, 2015...AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A COOL POOL ALOFT AT
500 MB WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -27 AND -29 C MOVING OVERHEAD AT
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING RESULTING IN INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS PUTS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
ALONG THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE MOST
OF THE ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR THERE, BUT THERE`S ALSO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS TO BE RAIN PRODUCERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CAL ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO MODOC COUNTY. HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW
700 MB WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 30-40 KTS FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND THIS ALONG WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AND TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN SOME OF THOSE
STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN AT THE SURFACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS COULD RESULT IN MODERATE RECOVERIES LATE TONIGHT
ALONG THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES, BUT MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY WHICH IS A
GOOD THING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN WILL OCCASIONALLY BE
OBSCURED. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 6 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SMALL CRAFT, BUT THE MODELS HINT
THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALES OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM
        THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 060918
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
218 AM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
MORNING HAS MADE LESS PROGRESS IN OUR DIRECTION THAN EXPECTED, BUT
NEVERTHELESS, IT CONTINUES TO MEANDER TO THE SOUTH. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
BY TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO
IT ISN`T EXPECTED TO DO MUCH OVER OUR AREA, BUT IT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADE CREST EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A CHANGE TODAY.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES, THEN
THEY WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW, PRIMARILY OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA. THE ONE THING THAT MAY BE A MINOR IMPACT
TOMORROW IS WIND ON THE EAST SIDE. THE LOW WILL BE VERTICALLY
STACKED, AND AS IT PULLS TO THE SOUTH, STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL MIX DOWN OVER EASTERN KLAMATH, LAKE, AND MODOC
COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FALL SHORT
OF ADVISORY LEVEL, WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY, A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE PACNW WHICH WILL MOVE OVER
US DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING US MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN BRIEFLY TAKES ON THE LOOK OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THEN THE RIDGE GETS PINCHED OFF
AND MOVES NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
OVER US FROM THE WEST. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION
OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE SHOULD
SEE COOLER, SHOWERY WEATHER EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, MAY 6, 2015...AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A COOL POOL ALOFT AT
500 MB WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -27 AND -29 C MOVING OVERHEAD AT
THE TIME OF MAX HEATING RESULTING IN INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS PUTS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
ALONG THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE MOST
OF THE ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR THERE, BUT THERE`S ALSO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS TO BE RAIN PRODUCERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CAL ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED TO MODOC COUNTY. HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW
700 MB WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 30-40 KTS FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND THIS ALONG WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AND TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN SOME OF THOSE
STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN AT THE SURFACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS COULD RESULT IN MODERATE RECOVERIES LATE TONIGHT
ALONG THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES, BUT MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY WHICH IS A
GOOD THING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN WILL OCCASIONALLY BE
OBSCURED. WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 6 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SMALL CRAFT, BUT THE MODELS HINT
THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALES OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM
        THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS65 KBOI 060901
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
301 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW WILL DROP FROM
WASHINGTON SOUTH INTO NRN CA BY 12Z THU...THEN INTO CENTRAL CA BY
00Z FRI. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BACK FROM
SW TODAY TO S TONIGHT TO SE THROUGH E ON THU. MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IS THU AFTERNOON...AS A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE MOVES
NORTH MAINLY ACROSS OUR SW IDAHO ZONES. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A
LITTLE MORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR TODAY...THERE IS JUST
BARELY ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO RETAIN THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW...
INSTABILITY IS BEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...AND
THE MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS THERE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL TODAY AND
TOMORROW... WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THERE IS A LARGE
DISCREPANCY IN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOISE TOMORROW...WITH THE WARM
MET AT 70 AND THE COOLER MAV AT 58. WE STAYED IN BETWEEN BUT
CLOSER TO THE MAV AS WE EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
GREATLY IMPACT THE AREA/S ABILITY TO WARM UP. WINDS WILL BE BRISK
OUT OF THE NW TO NORTH THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL TREND CONTINUING
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED BUT THEN BEGINNING TO
DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY. THE FLOW PATTERN AROUND THIS LOW WILL BRING CHANCE POPS TO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST OREGON.
CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AND WILL BE NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO BUT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST EXPECTING
POPS DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH SOUTHEAST OREGON REMAINING
DRY. SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST WITH MODELS DEVELOPING
A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE COULD BE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW HAVE A
FASTER TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE AREA DRY
BUT WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THERE COULD
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. LATEST
FORECAST ALREADY HAS SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MODELS
DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. MONDAY THE GFS IS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE CUTOFF LOW BUT BY TUESDAY
MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE THE SAME LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER
WESTERN OREGON. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE
TREND OF CHANCE POPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING...
BECOMING BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
SURFACE WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE BAKER CITY VALLEY
15-25 KNOTS WITH GUST TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT WEST-NORTHWEST
AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
35-40 KNOTS ABOVE 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 060901
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
301 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW WILL DROP FROM
WASHINGTON SOUTH INTO NRN CA BY 12Z THU...THEN INTO CENTRAL CA BY
00Z FRI. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BACK FROM
SW TODAY TO S TONIGHT TO SE THROUGH E ON THU. MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IS THU AFTERNOON...AS A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE MOVES
NORTH MAINLY ACROSS OUR SW IDAHO ZONES. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A
LITTLE MORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR TODAY...THERE IS JUST
BARELY ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO RETAIN THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW...
INSTABILITY IS BEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...AND
THE MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS THERE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL TODAY AND
TOMORROW... WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THERE IS A LARGE
DISCREPANCY IN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOISE TOMORROW...WITH THE WARM
MET AT 70 AND THE COOLER MAV AT 58. WE STAYED IN BETWEEN BUT
CLOSER TO THE MAV AS WE EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
GREATLY IMPACT THE AREA/S ABILITY TO WARM UP. WINDS WILL BE BRISK
OUT OF THE NW TO NORTH THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL TREND CONTINUING
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED BUT THEN BEGINNING TO
DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY. THE FLOW PATTERN AROUND THIS LOW WILL BRING CHANCE POPS TO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST OREGON.
CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AND WILL BE NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO BUT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST EXPECTING
POPS DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH SOUTHEAST OREGON REMAINING
DRY. SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST WITH MODELS DEVELOPING
A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE COULD BE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW HAVE A
FASTER TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE AREA DRY
BUT WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THERE COULD
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. LATEST
FORECAST ALREADY HAS SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MODELS
DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. MONDAY THE GFS IS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE CUTOFF LOW BUT BY TUESDAY
MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE THE SAME LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER
WESTERN OREGON. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE
TREND OF CHANCE POPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING...
BECOMING BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
SURFACE WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE BAKER CITY VALLEY
15-25 KNOTS WITH GUST TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT WEST-NORTHWEST
AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
35-40 KNOTS ABOVE 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 060901
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
301 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW WILL DROP FROM
WASHINGTON SOUTH INTO NRN CA BY 12Z THU...THEN INTO CENTRAL CA BY
00Z FRI. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BACK FROM
SW TODAY TO S TONIGHT TO SE THROUGH E ON THU. MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IS THU AFTERNOON...AS A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE MOVES
NORTH MAINLY ACROSS OUR SW IDAHO ZONES. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A
LITTLE MORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR TODAY...THERE IS JUST
BARELY ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO RETAIN THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW...
INSTABILITY IS BEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...AND
THE MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS THERE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL TODAY AND
TOMORROW... WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THERE IS A LARGE
DISCREPANCY IN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOISE TOMORROW...WITH THE WARM
MET AT 70 AND THE COOLER MAV AT 58. WE STAYED IN BETWEEN BUT
CLOSER TO THE MAV AS WE EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
GREATLY IMPACT THE AREA/S ABILITY TO WARM UP. WINDS WILL BE BRISK
OUT OF THE NW TO NORTH THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL TREND CONTINUING
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED BUT THEN BEGINNING TO
DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY. THE FLOW PATTERN AROUND THIS LOW WILL BRING CHANCE POPS TO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST OREGON.
CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AND WILL BE NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO BUT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST EXPECTING
POPS DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH SOUTHEAST OREGON REMAINING
DRY. SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST WITH MODELS DEVELOPING
A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE COULD BE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW HAVE A
FASTER TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE AREA DRY
BUT WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THERE COULD
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. LATEST
FORECAST ALREADY HAS SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MODELS
DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. MONDAY THE GFS IS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE CUTOFF LOW BUT BY TUESDAY
MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE THE SAME LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER
WESTERN OREGON. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE
TREND OF CHANCE POPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING...
BECOMING BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
SURFACE WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE BAKER CITY VALLEY
15-25 KNOTS WITH GUST TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT WEST-NORTHWEST
AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
35-40 KNOTS ABOVE 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 060901
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
301 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW WILL DROP FROM
WASHINGTON SOUTH INTO NRN CA BY 12Z THU...THEN INTO CENTRAL CA BY
00Z FRI. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BACK FROM
SW TODAY TO S TONIGHT TO SE THROUGH E ON THU. MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IS THU AFTERNOON...AS A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE MOVES
NORTH MAINLY ACROSS OUR SW IDAHO ZONES. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A
LITTLE MORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR TODAY...THERE IS JUST
BARELY ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO RETAIN THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW...
INSTABILITY IS BEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...AND
THE MENTION OF THUNDER REMAINS THERE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL TODAY AND
TOMORROW... WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THERE IS A LARGE
DISCREPANCY IN THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOISE TOMORROW...WITH THE WARM
MET AT 70 AND THE COOLER MAV AT 58. WE STAYED IN BETWEEN BUT
CLOSER TO THE MAV AS WE EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
GREATLY IMPACT THE AREA/S ABILITY TO WARM UP. WINDS WILL BE BRISK
OUT OF THE NW TO NORTH THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL TREND CONTINUING
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED BUT THEN BEGINNING TO
DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CUTOFF LOW WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NEVADA
FRIDAY. THE FLOW PATTERN AROUND THIS LOW WILL BRING CHANCE POPS TO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST OREGON.
CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AND WILL BE NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO BUT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST EXPECTING
POPS DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH SOUTHEAST OREGON REMAINING
DRY. SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST WITH MODELS DEVELOPING
A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE COULD BE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW HAVE A
FASTER TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE AREA DRY
BUT WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THERE COULD
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. LATEST
FORECAST ALREADY HAS SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MODELS
DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. MONDAY THE GFS IS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE CUTOFF LOW BUT BY TUESDAY
MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE THE SAME LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER
WESTERN OREGON. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE
TREND OF CHANCE POPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING...
BECOMING BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
SURFACE WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE BAKER CITY VALLEY
15-25 KNOTS WITH GUST TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT WEST-NORTHWEST
AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
35-40 KNOTS ABOVE 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 060545 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1044 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LOW SLIDING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT ABOUT AS PREDICTED BY MODELS.
COLDER AND LESS STABLE AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA. RADAR
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND A FEW SHOWERS IN
OUR AREA BUT OBSERVATIONS IN OUR AREA ONLY SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. THERE HAVE BEEN
RETURNS NEAR THE TRI-CITIES BUT SO FAR NO REPORTS OF EVEN TRACE
AMOUNTS. CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING FURTHER EAST THAN IN
OUR FORECAST SO HAVE BUMPED SKY COVER AMOUNTS UP SOMEWHAT FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE A FEW TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS,
MOSTLY UP A DEGREE OR SO DUE TO THE HEAVIER CLOUD COVER. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY IN A FEW PLACES, PRIMARILY ELLENSBURG AND IN
THE COLUMBIA BASIN, BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS DECREASING STRENGTH.
HAVE MADE A FEW WIND ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY OUT. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 4-9 THOUSAND FEET ARE MOVING
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER SOME BRIEF CLEARING, DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM 20Z-04Z. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH VCSH
AT ALL TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 04Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS THOUGH KRDM, KBDN AND KDLS MAY HAVE GUSTS TO 25 KTS LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST OVERNIGHT WHERE INSTABILITY
REMAINS THE BEST. ON WEDNESDAY THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORMLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CALIFORNIA PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EVENING OR EARLY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD IN THIS FLOW FRIDAY AND THE TRACK IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AT PRESENT MODELS INDICATE THAT IT
WOULD DROP THROUGH IDAHO BUT IF IT TAKES A PATH FURTHER WEST IT
COULD HAVE MORE IMPACT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM...RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY BUT COOL
AT NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY LATE
SUNDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN
UPPER LOW INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS FROM LATE
SUNDAY UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE OREGON HIGHLANDS. BY TUESDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NE INTO WASHINGTON WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  61  39  69 /  10  20  20  10
ALW  42  64  42  72 /  10  20  10  10
PSC  43  67  43  76 /  10  20  10   0
YKM  38  64  40  74 /  20  30  20   0
HRI  41  66  40  74 /  10  20  10   0
ELN  38  62  39  74 /  20  30  20   0
RDM  29  56  29  64 /  10  20  30  10
LGD  36  58  38  65 /   0  20  20  10
GCD  34  58  35  65 /   0  20  20  10
DLS  43  66  42  77 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/78/78




000
FXUS66 KPDT 060545 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1044 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LOW SLIDING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT ABOUT AS PREDICTED BY MODELS.
COLDER AND LESS STABLE AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA. RADAR
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND A FEW SHOWERS IN
OUR AREA BUT OBSERVATIONS IN OUR AREA ONLY SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. THERE HAVE BEEN
RETURNS NEAR THE TRI-CITIES BUT SO FAR NO REPORTS OF EVEN TRACE
AMOUNTS. CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING FURTHER EAST THAN IN
OUR FORECAST SO HAVE BUMPED SKY COVER AMOUNTS UP SOMEWHAT FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE A FEW TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS,
MOSTLY UP A DEGREE OR SO DUE TO THE HEAVIER CLOUD COVER. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY IN A FEW PLACES, PRIMARILY ELLENSBURG AND IN
THE COLUMBIA BASIN, BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS DECREASING STRENGTH.
HAVE MADE A FEW WIND ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY OUT. PERRY

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 4-9 THOUSAND FEET ARE MOVING
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER SOME BRIEF CLEARING, DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM 20Z-04Z. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH VCSH
AT ALL TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 04Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
15 KTS THOUGH KRDM, KBDN AND KDLS MAY HAVE GUSTS TO 25 KTS LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST OVERNIGHT WHERE INSTABILITY
REMAINS THE BEST. ON WEDNESDAY THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORMLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CALIFORNIA PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EVENING OR EARLY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD IN THIS FLOW FRIDAY AND THE TRACK IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AT PRESENT MODELS INDICATE THAT IT
WOULD DROP THROUGH IDAHO BUT IF IT TAKES A PATH FURTHER WEST IT
COULD HAVE MORE IMPACT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM...RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY BUT COOL
AT NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY LATE
SUNDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN
UPPER LOW INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS FROM LATE
SUNDAY UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE OREGON HIGHLANDS. BY TUESDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NE INTO WASHINGTON WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  61  39  69 /  10  20  20  10
ALW  42  64  42  72 /  10  20  10  10
PSC  43  67  43  76 /  10  20  10   0
YKM  38  64  40  74 /  20  30  20   0
HRI  41  66  40  74 /  10  20  10   0
ELN  38  62  39  74 /  20  30  20   0
RDM  29  56  29  64 /  10  20  30  10
LGD  36  58  38  65 /   0  20  20  10
GCD  34  58  35  65 /   0  20  20  10
DLS  43  66  42  77 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/78/78



000
FXUS66 KPDT 060356
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
856 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LOW SLIDING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT ABOUT AS PREDICTED BY MODELS.
COLDER AND LESS STABLE AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA. RADAR
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND A FEW SHOWERS IN
OUR AREA BUT OBSERVATIONS IN OUR AREA ONLY SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. THERE HAVE BEEN
RETURNS NEAR THE TRI-CITIES BUT SO FAR NO REPORTS OF EVEN TRACE
AMOUNTS. CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING FURTHER EAST THAN IN
OUR FORECAST SO HAVE BUMPED SKY COVER AMOUNTS UP SOMEWHAT FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE A FEW TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS,
MOSTLY UP A DEGREE OR SO DUE TO THE HEAVIER CLOUD COVER. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY IN A FEW PLACES, PRIMARILY ELLENSBURG AND IN
THE COLUMBIA BASIN, BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS DECREASING STRENGTH.
HAVE MADE A FEW WIND ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY OUT. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST OVERNIGHT WHERE INSTABILITY
REMAINS THE BEST. ON WEDNESDAY THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORMLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CALIFORNIA PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EVENING OR EARLY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD IN THIS FLOW FRIDAY AND THE TRACK IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AT PRESENT MODELS INDICATE THAT IT
WOULD DROP THROUGH IDAHO BUT IF IT TAKES A PATH FURTHER WEST IT
COULD HAVE MORE IMPACT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM...RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY BUT COOL
AT NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY LATE
SUNDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN
UPPER LOW INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS FROM LATE
SUNDAY UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE OREGON HIGHLANDS. BY TUESDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NE INTO WASHINGTON WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. 78

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS AT 4-6 THOUSAND FEET AGL WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR THIS LAYER TO DIMINISH
LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE LOWER CUMULUS REFORMING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
-SHRA/-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND LOCATION
TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TO PUT IN TAFS AT THE PRESENT TIME. GUSTY
W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND PICKUP AGAIN
FROM THE NW AT 10-15 KT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  61  39  69 /  10  20  20  10
ALW  42  64  42  72 /  10  20  10  10
PSC  43  67  43  76 /  10  20  10   0
YKM  38  64  40  74 /  20  30  20   0
HRI  41  66  40  74 /  10  20  10   0
ELN  38  62  39  74 /  20  30  20   0
RDM  29  56  29  64 /  10  20  30  10
LGD  36  58  38  65 /   0  20  20  10
GCD  34  58  35  65 /   0  20  20  10
DLS  43  66  42  77 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/78/78



000
FXUS66 KPDT 060356
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
856 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LOW SLIDING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT ABOUT AS PREDICTED BY MODELS.
COLDER AND LESS STABLE AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA. RADAR
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND A FEW SHOWERS IN
OUR AREA BUT OBSERVATIONS IN OUR AREA ONLY SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. THERE HAVE BEEN
RETURNS NEAR THE TRI-CITIES BUT SO FAR NO REPORTS OF EVEN TRACE
AMOUNTS. CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING FURTHER EAST THAN IN
OUR FORECAST SO HAVE BUMPED SKY COVER AMOUNTS UP SOMEWHAT FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE A FEW TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS,
MOSTLY UP A DEGREE OR SO DUE TO THE HEAVIER CLOUD COVER. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY IN A FEW PLACES, PRIMARILY ELLENSBURG AND IN
THE COLUMBIA BASIN, BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS DECREASING STRENGTH.
HAVE MADE A FEW WIND ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY OUT. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST OVERNIGHT WHERE INSTABILITY
REMAINS THE BEST. ON WEDNESDAY THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORMLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CALIFORNIA PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EVENING OR EARLY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD IN THIS FLOW FRIDAY AND THE TRACK IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AT PRESENT MODELS INDICATE THAT IT
WOULD DROP THROUGH IDAHO BUT IF IT TAKES A PATH FURTHER WEST IT
COULD HAVE MORE IMPACT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM...RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY BUT COOL
AT NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY LATE
SUNDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN
UPPER LOW INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS FROM LATE
SUNDAY UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE OREGON HIGHLANDS. BY TUESDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NE INTO WASHINGTON WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. 78

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS AT 4-6 THOUSAND FEET AGL WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR THIS LAYER TO DIMINISH
LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE LOWER CUMULUS REFORMING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
-SHRA/-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND LOCATION
TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TO PUT IN TAFS AT THE PRESENT TIME. GUSTY
W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND PICKUP AGAIN
FROM THE NW AT 10-15 KT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  61  39  69 /  10  20  20  10
ALW  42  64  42  72 /  10  20  10  10
PSC  43  67  43  76 /  10  20  10   0
YKM  38  64  40  74 /  20  30  20   0
HRI  41  66  40  74 /  10  20  10   0
ELN  38  62  39  74 /  20  30  20   0
RDM  29  56  29  64 /  10  20  30  10
LGD  36  58  38  65 /   0  20  20  10
GCD  34  58  35  65 /   0  20  20  10
DLS  43  66  42  77 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

83/78/78




000
FXUS66 KPQR 060354
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
853 PM PDT TUE MAY  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WASHINGTON WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OVER OREGON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING OUR WEATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY EXIST FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SOME WITH SMALL HAIL. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO RETURN
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.EVENING UPDATE...MUCH OF THE SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON IS COLLAPSING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW WASHINGTON...MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST...WHERE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING DUE TO A LOBE
OF COLD AIR ALOFT DIGGING S-SE ALONG THE WA COAST. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO
THE PDX METRO LATER ON AS THE VORTMAX AND COOL AIR ALOFT SWING
ONSHORE.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...GENERALLY LOWERING SKY COVER AND
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. KEPT WED MORNING MOSTLY CLOUDY AS IT THE TOP
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW A STRATOCUMULUS DECK
TO FORM OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. IF THE CEILING DOES DEVELOP...
MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME SUNBREAKS TO FORM BY MID-LATE MORNING.
AFTER THAT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...UNSETTLED WITH
A MIX OF SHOWERS AND SUNBREAKS.

MODELS STILL SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE OF DEEPER CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO COOLER TEMPS ALOFT PROMOTING
SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEARING -30 DEG C AND
SFC TEMPS AROUND 60 DEG F...CLOUD TOPS COULD REACH 20-25 KFT. GIVEN
THE COOL AIR MASS THIS WOULD GIVE PLENTY OF ROOM FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. CAPE IS STILL VERY SKINNY ON NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS...SO DECIDED TO KEEP COVERAGE ISOLATED.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 227 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME SWRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE CONCENTRATED CLOSE TO THE LOW
CENTER...FOCUSED OVER WRN WA. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A DRY AIR TONGUE
ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE ENTERING WRN OREGON. SHOWER ACTIVITY NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE AS OF YET. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...FAVORED OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO THE WLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW. CASCADE WEB CAMS AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASING CLOUD TREND OVER THE
HIGHER LANE COUNTY CASCADES...IN THE CORE OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT AS
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES
TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON MAJOR ROADWAYS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW MIGRATING E-SE TONIGHT...THEN
SPLITTING INTO TWO PIECES BY WED. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS VALID 18Z WED
SHOW ONE PIECE OVER SRN ALBERTA AND THE MAIN ENERGY OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON. 12Z GFS HAS 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -28C WED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. THE STRONG MAY SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BOOST SFC TEMPS TO AROUND 60 DEG C IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ABOVE
THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. MODEL LIFTED INDICES EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND -1 TO -2 DEG C FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. NAM MODEL
SOUNDING FOR KPDX HAS ALMOST 500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE WED
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO 250-300 J/KG ON THE GFS. WED SHOULD HAVE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE UPPER LOW SETTLING OVER
CENTRAL OREGON. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WED REMAIN AROUND 4000 FT FOR A
CONTINUED THREAT OF SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ITS DIVE SOUTH WED NIGHT...ENDING UP OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY 12Z THU. WILL NEED TO LEAVE SOME LOW-END POPS OVER THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES WED NIGHT WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE STILL A
THREAT.

DECIDED TO PULL ALL MENTION OF POPS THU AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS
FURTHER SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED NEAR 135W AMPLIFIES AND
NUDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST THU AND THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRIER
N-NE FLOW ALOFT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU. GFS 850 MB TEMPS GO FROM +8 TO
+10C THU TO +12 TO +13C FRI. ECMWF VALUES LOOK TO BE 1-2C
COOLER...BUT THESE VALUES WOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS AT LEAST TO THE MID
70S INLAND. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THU AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THU.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MOVES LAND
AND SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF KSLE.  THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR CITS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z WED IN THE AREA BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT TAF SITES. SHOWER
INTENSITY INCREASE WED AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 06Z THU
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR MVFR CITS AROUND 2500-3000 FEET IN THE AREA
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z WED. SHOWERS BECOME MORE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE
TERMINAL. /26

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25
KT FROM A HEAVIER SHOWER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A WESTERLY SWELL AROUND 8 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
NEAR 6 FT ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD A SUMMER-LIKE
NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
EXPECT PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30 KT WINDS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE SEAS COULD BECOME STEEP AND CHOPPY ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY
IF THE GUSTIER NORTHERLY WINDS MATERIALIZE.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     5 AM TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 060354
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
853 PM PDT TUE MAY  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WASHINGTON WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OVER OREGON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING OUR WEATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY EXIST FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SOME WITH SMALL HAIL. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO RETURN
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.EVENING UPDATE...MUCH OF THE SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON IS COLLAPSING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW WASHINGTON...MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST...WHERE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING DUE TO A LOBE
OF COLD AIR ALOFT DIGGING S-SE ALONG THE WA COAST. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO
THE PDX METRO LATER ON AS THE VORTMAX AND COOL AIR ALOFT SWING
ONSHORE.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...GENERALLY LOWERING SKY COVER AND
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. KEPT WED MORNING MOSTLY CLOUDY AS IT THE TOP
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW A STRATOCUMULUS DECK
TO FORM OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. IF THE CEILING DOES DEVELOP...
MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME SUNBREAKS TO FORM BY MID-LATE MORNING.
AFTER THAT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...UNSETTLED WITH
A MIX OF SHOWERS AND SUNBREAKS.

MODELS STILL SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE OF DEEPER CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO COOLER TEMPS ALOFT PROMOTING
SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEARING -30 DEG C AND
SFC TEMPS AROUND 60 DEG F...CLOUD TOPS COULD REACH 20-25 KFT. GIVEN
THE COOL AIR MASS THIS WOULD GIVE PLENTY OF ROOM FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. CAPE IS STILL VERY SKINNY ON NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS...SO DECIDED TO KEEP COVERAGE ISOLATED.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 227 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME SWRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE CONCENTRATED CLOSE TO THE LOW
CENTER...FOCUSED OVER WRN WA. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A DRY AIR TONGUE
ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE ENTERING WRN OREGON. SHOWER ACTIVITY NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE AS OF YET. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...FAVORED OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO THE WLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW. CASCADE WEB CAMS AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASING CLOUD TREND OVER THE
HIGHER LANE COUNTY CASCADES...IN THE CORE OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT AS
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES
TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON MAJOR ROADWAYS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW MIGRATING E-SE TONIGHT...THEN
SPLITTING INTO TWO PIECES BY WED. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS VALID 18Z WED
SHOW ONE PIECE OVER SRN ALBERTA AND THE MAIN ENERGY OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON. 12Z GFS HAS 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -28C WED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. THE STRONG MAY SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BOOST SFC TEMPS TO AROUND 60 DEG C IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ABOVE
THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. MODEL LIFTED INDICES EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND -1 TO -2 DEG C FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. NAM MODEL
SOUNDING FOR KPDX HAS ALMOST 500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE WED
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO 250-300 J/KG ON THE GFS. WED SHOULD HAVE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE UPPER LOW SETTLING OVER
CENTRAL OREGON. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WED REMAIN AROUND 4000 FT FOR A
CONTINUED THREAT OF SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ITS DIVE SOUTH WED NIGHT...ENDING UP OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY 12Z THU. WILL NEED TO LEAVE SOME LOW-END POPS OVER THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES WED NIGHT WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE STILL A
THREAT.

DECIDED TO PULL ALL MENTION OF POPS THU AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS
FURTHER SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED NEAR 135W AMPLIFIES AND
NUDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST THU AND THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRIER
N-NE FLOW ALOFT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU. GFS 850 MB TEMPS GO FROM +8 TO
+10C THU TO +12 TO +13C FRI. ECMWF VALUES LOOK TO BE 1-2C
COOLER...BUT THESE VALUES WOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS AT LEAST TO THE MID
70S INLAND. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THU AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THU.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MOVES LAND
AND SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF KSLE.  THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR CITS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z WED IN THE AREA BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT TAF SITES. SHOWER
INTENSITY INCREASE WED AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 06Z THU
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR MVFR CITS AROUND 2500-3000 FEET IN THE AREA
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z WED. SHOWERS BECOME MORE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE
TERMINAL. /26

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25
KT FROM A HEAVIER SHOWER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A WESTERLY SWELL AROUND 8 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
NEAR 6 FT ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD A SUMMER-LIKE
NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
EXPECT PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30 KT WINDS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE SEAS COULD BECOME STEEP AND CHOPPY ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY
IF THE GUSTIER NORTHERLY WINDS MATERIALIZE.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     5 AM TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 060354
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
853 PM PDT TUE MAY  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WASHINGTON WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OVER OREGON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING OUR WEATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY EXIST FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SOME WITH SMALL HAIL. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO RETURN
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.EVENING UPDATE...MUCH OF THE SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON IS COLLAPSING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW WASHINGTON...MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST...WHERE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING DUE TO A LOBE
OF COLD AIR ALOFT DIGGING S-SE ALONG THE WA COAST. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO
THE PDX METRO LATER ON AS THE VORTMAX AND COOL AIR ALOFT SWING
ONSHORE.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...GENERALLY LOWERING SKY COVER AND
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. KEPT WED MORNING MOSTLY CLOUDY AS IT THE TOP
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW A STRATOCUMULUS DECK
TO FORM OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. IF THE CEILING DOES DEVELOP...
MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME SUNBREAKS TO FORM BY MID-LATE MORNING.
AFTER THAT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...UNSETTLED WITH
A MIX OF SHOWERS AND SUNBREAKS.

MODELS STILL SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE OF DEEPER CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO COOLER TEMPS ALOFT PROMOTING
SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEARING -30 DEG C AND
SFC TEMPS AROUND 60 DEG F...CLOUD TOPS COULD REACH 20-25 KFT. GIVEN
THE COOL AIR MASS THIS WOULD GIVE PLENTY OF ROOM FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. CAPE IS STILL VERY SKINNY ON NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS...SO DECIDED TO KEEP COVERAGE ISOLATED.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 227 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME SWRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE CONCENTRATED CLOSE TO THE LOW
CENTER...FOCUSED OVER WRN WA. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A DRY AIR TONGUE
ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE ENTERING WRN OREGON. SHOWER ACTIVITY NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE AS OF YET. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...FAVORED OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO THE WLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW. CASCADE WEB CAMS AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASING CLOUD TREND OVER THE
HIGHER LANE COUNTY CASCADES...IN THE CORE OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT AS
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES
TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON MAJOR ROADWAYS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW MIGRATING E-SE TONIGHT...THEN
SPLITTING INTO TWO PIECES BY WED. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS VALID 18Z WED
SHOW ONE PIECE OVER SRN ALBERTA AND THE MAIN ENERGY OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON. 12Z GFS HAS 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -28C WED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. THE STRONG MAY SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BOOST SFC TEMPS TO AROUND 60 DEG C IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ABOVE
THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. MODEL LIFTED INDICES EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND -1 TO -2 DEG C FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. NAM MODEL
SOUNDING FOR KPDX HAS ALMOST 500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE WED
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO 250-300 J/KG ON THE GFS. WED SHOULD HAVE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE UPPER LOW SETTLING OVER
CENTRAL OREGON. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WED REMAIN AROUND 4000 FT FOR A
CONTINUED THREAT OF SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ITS DIVE SOUTH WED NIGHT...ENDING UP OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY 12Z THU. WILL NEED TO LEAVE SOME LOW-END POPS OVER THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES WED NIGHT WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE STILL A
THREAT.

DECIDED TO PULL ALL MENTION OF POPS THU AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS
FURTHER SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED NEAR 135W AMPLIFIES AND
NUDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST THU AND THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRIER
N-NE FLOW ALOFT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU. GFS 850 MB TEMPS GO FROM +8 TO
+10C THU TO +12 TO +13C FRI. ECMWF VALUES LOOK TO BE 1-2C
COOLER...BUT THESE VALUES WOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS AT LEAST TO THE MID
70S INLAND. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THU AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THU.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MOVES LAND
AND SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF KSLE.  THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR CITS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z WED IN THE AREA BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT TAF SITES. SHOWER
INTENSITY INCREASE WED AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 06Z THU
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR MVFR CITS AROUND 2500-3000 FEET IN THE AREA
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z WED. SHOWERS BECOME MORE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE
TERMINAL. /26

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25
KT FROM A HEAVIER SHOWER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A WESTERLY SWELL AROUND 8 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
NEAR 6 FT ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD A SUMMER-LIKE
NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
EXPECT PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30 KT WINDS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE SEAS COULD BECOME STEEP AND CHOPPY ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY
IF THE GUSTIER NORTHERLY WINDS MATERIALIZE.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     5 AM TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 060354
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
853 PM PDT TUE MAY  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WASHINGTON WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OVER OREGON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING OUR WEATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY EXIST FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SOME WITH SMALL HAIL. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO RETURN
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.EVENING UPDATE...MUCH OF THE SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON IS COLLAPSING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS SW WASHINGTON...MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST...WHERE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING DUE TO A LOBE
OF COLD AIR ALOFT DIGGING S-SE ALONG THE WA COAST. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO
THE PDX METRO LATER ON AS THE VORTMAX AND COOL AIR ALOFT SWING
ONSHORE.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...GENERALLY LOWERING SKY COVER AND
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. KEPT WED MORNING MOSTLY CLOUDY AS IT THE TOP
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW A STRATOCUMULUS DECK
TO FORM OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. IF THE CEILING DOES DEVELOP...
MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME SUNBREAKS TO FORM BY MID-LATE MORNING.
AFTER THAT WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...UNSETTLED WITH
A MIX OF SHOWERS AND SUNBREAKS.

MODELS STILL SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE OF DEEPER CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO COOLER TEMPS ALOFT PROMOTING
SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEARING -30 DEG C AND
SFC TEMPS AROUND 60 DEG F...CLOUD TOPS COULD REACH 20-25 KFT. GIVEN
THE COOL AIR MASS THIS WOULD GIVE PLENTY OF ROOM FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. CAPE IS STILL VERY SKINNY ON NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS...SO DECIDED TO KEEP COVERAGE ISOLATED.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 227 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME SWRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE CONCENTRATED CLOSE TO THE LOW
CENTER...FOCUSED OVER WRN WA. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A DRY AIR TONGUE
ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE ENTERING WRN OREGON. SHOWER ACTIVITY NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE AS OF YET. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...FAVORED OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO THE WLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW. CASCADE WEB CAMS AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASING CLOUD TREND OVER THE
HIGHER LANE COUNTY CASCADES...IN THE CORE OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT AS
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES
TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON MAJOR ROADWAYS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW MIGRATING E-SE TONIGHT...THEN
SPLITTING INTO TWO PIECES BY WED. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS VALID 18Z WED
SHOW ONE PIECE OVER SRN ALBERTA AND THE MAIN ENERGY OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON. 12Z GFS HAS 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -28C WED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. THE STRONG MAY SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BOOST SFC TEMPS TO AROUND 60 DEG C IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ABOVE
THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. MODEL LIFTED INDICES EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND -1 TO -2 DEG C FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. NAM MODEL
SOUNDING FOR KPDX HAS ALMOST 500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE WED
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO 250-300 J/KG ON THE GFS. WED SHOULD HAVE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE UPPER LOW SETTLING OVER
CENTRAL OREGON. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WED REMAIN AROUND 4000 FT FOR A
CONTINUED THREAT OF SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ITS DIVE SOUTH WED NIGHT...ENDING UP OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY 12Z THU. WILL NEED TO LEAVE SOME LOW-END POPS OVER THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES WED NIGHT WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE STILL A
THREAT.

DECIDED TO PULL ALL MENTION OF POPS THU AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS
FURTHER SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED NEAR 135W AMPLIFIES AND
NUDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST THU AND THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRIER
N-NE FLOW ALOFT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU. GFS 850 MB TEMPS GO FROM +8 TO
+10C THU TO +12 TO +13C FRI. ECMWF VALUES LOOK TO BE 1-2C
COOLER...BUT THESE VALUES WOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS AT LEAST TO THE MID
70S INLAND. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. TJ

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THU AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THU.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MOVES LAND
AND SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF KSLE.  THERE MAY BE SOME
MVFR CITS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z WED IN THE AREA BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT TAF SITES. SHOWER
INTENSITY INCREASE WED AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 06Z THU
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR MVFR CITS AROUND 2500-3000 FEET IN THE AREA
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z WED. SHOWERS BECOME MORE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE
TERMINAL. /26

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25
KT FROM A HEAVIER SHOWER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A WESTERLY SWELL AROUND 8 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
NEAR 6 FT ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD A SUMMER-LIKE
NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
EXPECT PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30 KT WINDS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE SEAS COULD BECOME STEEP AND CHOPPY ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY
IF THE GUSTIER NORTHERLY WINDS MATERIALIZE.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     5 AM TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 060327
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
827 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED SKY COVER, BUT OTHERWISE THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN WILL OCCASIONALLY BE
OBSCURED. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY ALONG
THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. -JRS


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT TUESDAY 5 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS IS A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH WINDS
AND WAVES PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR MARINE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY. -BPN/JRS


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT-TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...COURTESY OF A MOSTLY DRY...COOL UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH TONIGHT WILL
BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE UMQPUA BASIN AND COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ARE STILL WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY. TOMORROW INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES...BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. 850MB COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF ZERO OR JUST
BELOW ZERO ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...NOR ARE THE MEAGER CAPE VALUES SO
THUS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...A
BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW IS IN CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME DEFORMATION-
TYPE DYNAMICS FAVORING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT GUSTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN WITH WHAT WILL BE THE THIRD DAY IN A
ROW OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHEN EXAMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE THE IMPACT THRESHOLDS. THIS IS
PARTIALLY DUE TO MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...GROWERS SHOULD BE AWARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND WE
ARE NOT OUT THE WOODS YET IN TERMS OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL THIS
SPRING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER LAS VEGAS AND THE AIR MASS WARMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST NOTABLE
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WERE TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AND TO NUDGE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HIGHER
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INLAND ON SATURDAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.

BY SATURDAY EVENING, HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AS THE FIRST
SIGN OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER/COLDER WITH THE TROUGH BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE
MOIST AND ITS INDICATED TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MODEL SIMILARITY TO HAVE NUDGED UP THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE DEW POINTS. BUT,
THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESEMBLES THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR
AREA AND DOES NOT GENERATE MUCH QPF WITH A PATTERN OF COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DURING ALL OF THE LONG TERM WOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE NOTICEABLY
WETTER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH MODELS DO NOT
BRING IN ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND A STRAIGHT BLEND WAS UTILIZED AS THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MORE IN HARMONY WITH THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LAST FEW TROUGHS TO IMPACT OUR AREA.
/DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/JRS/DW/NSK



000
FXUS66 KMFR 060327
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
827 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED SKY COVER, BUT OTHERWISE THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN WILL OCCASIONALLY BE
OBSCURED. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY ALONG
THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. -JRS


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT TUESDAY 5 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS IS A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH WINDS
AND WAVES PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR MARINE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY. -BPN/JRS


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT-TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...COURTESY OF A MOSTLY DRY...COOL UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH TONIGHT WILL
BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE UMQPUA BASIN AND COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ARE STILL WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY. TOMORROW INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES...BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. 850MB COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF ZERO OR JUST
BELOW ZERO ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...NOR ARE THE MEAGER CAPE VALUES SO
THUS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...A
BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW IS IN CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME DEFORMATION-
TYPE DYNAMICS FAVORING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT GUSTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN WITH WHAT WILL BE THE THIRD DAY IN A
ROW OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHEN EXAMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE THE IMPACT THRESHOLDS. THIS IS
PARTIALLY DUE TO MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...GROWERS SHOULD BE AWARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND WE
ARE NOT OUT THE WOODS YET IN TERMS OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL THIS
SPRING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER LAS VEGAS AND THE AIR MASS WARMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST NOTABLE
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WERE TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AND TO NUDGE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HIGHER
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INLAND ON SATURDAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.

BY SATURDAY EVENING, HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AS THE FIRST
SIGN OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER/COLDER WITH THE TROUGH BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE
MOIST AND ITS INDICATED TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MODEL SIMILARITY TO HAVE NUDGED UP THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE DEW POINTS. BUT,
THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESEMBLES THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR
AREA AND DOES NOT GENERATE MUCH QPF WITH A PATTERN OF COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DURING ALL OF THE LONG TERM WOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE NOTICEABLY
WETTER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH MODELS DO NOT
BRING IN ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND A STRAIGHT BLEND WAS UTILIZED AS THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MORE IN HARMONY WITH THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LAST FEW TROUGHS TO IMPACT OUR AREA.
/DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/JRS/DW/NSK




000
FXUS65 KBOI 060236
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
836 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AIR CIRCULATING AROUND UPPER LOW IN NWRN
WA THIS EVENING.  THE DRY AIR IS COMING INLAND ACROSS OREGON AND
INTO WRN IDAHO.  DEW POINTS IN ERN OREGON HAVE DIPPED BELOW 10F
THIS EVENING AND WERE STILL DROPPING IN WRN IDAHO.  THE UPPER
LOW WILL GO STRAIGHT SOUTH ALONG 120W WEDNESDAY...I.E. ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH CALIF
TO NEAR L.A. THURSDAY...THEN TURN EWD ACROSS SRN NV AND ARIZONA.
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO OUR SRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND OUR FORECAST HAS MID-RANGE POPS
FOR IT.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS AS WINDY AS TODAY BUT WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL
DEGS COOLER.  A LITTLE WARMER AND LESS WINDY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ALL THIS IS ALREADY IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT
DECREASING TO 5-15KT AFTER SUNSET THEN INCREASING TO NORTHWESTERLY-
NORTHERLY 15-25KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...
VARIABLE 5-15KT BECOMING NORTHERLY 10-20KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW WILL SPLIT AS ENERGY DROPS ALONG THE CASCADES INTO
CALIFORNIA. THE ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON
WEDNESDAY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND MTNS OF SW IDAHO.
THE LOW DROPS INTO CENTRAL CA BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT FOCUS
OF PRECIPITATION TO FAR SE OREGON AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO
...SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT MUCH
OF THE SNAKE PLAIN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW WILL TRACK
THROUGH FAR SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AT
ALL ELEVATIONS. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE BETTER POSITIONED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH THE CLOSED LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...OVER CA. IT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF US AS IT SLOWLY CHURNS EAST...CONTINUING TO
BRING SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO...UNTIL A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY...GIVING THE REGION A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT
LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 060236
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
836 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AIR CIRCULATING AROUND UPPER LOW IN NWRN
WA THIS EVENING.  THE DRY AIR IS COMING INLAND ACROSS OREGON AND
INTO WRN IDAHO.  DEW POINTS IN ERN OREGON HAVE DIPPED BELOW 10F
THIS EVENING AND WERE STILL DROPPING IN WRN IDAHO.  THE UPPER
LOW WILL GO STRAIGHT SOUTH ALONG 120W WEDNESDAY...I.E. ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH CALIF
TO NEAR L.A. THURSDAY...THEN TURN EWD ACROSS SRN NV AND ARIZONA.
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO OUR SRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND OUR FORECAST HAS MID-RANGE POPS
FOR IT.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS AS WINDY AS TODAY BUT WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL
DEGS COOLER.  A LITTLE WARMER AND LESS WINDY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ALL THIS IS ALREADY IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT
DECREASING TO 5-15KT AFTER SUNSET THEN INCREASING TO NORTHWESTERLY-
NORTHERLY 15-25KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...
VARIABLE 5-15KT BECOMING NORTHERLY 10-20KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW WILL SPLIT AS ENERGY DROPS ALONG THE CASCADES INTO
CALIFORNIA. THE ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON
WEDNESDAY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND MTNS OF SW IDAHO.
THE LOW DROPS INTO CENTRAL CA BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT FOCUS
OF PRECIPITATION TO FAR SE OREGON AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO
...SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT MUCH
OF THE SNAKE PLAIN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW WILL TRACK
THROUGH FAR SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AT
ALL ELEVATIONS. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE BETTER POSITIONED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH THE CLOSED LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...OVER CA. IT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF US AS IT SLOWLY CHURNS EAST...CONTINUING TO
BRING SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO...UNTIL A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY...GIVING THE REGION A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT
LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 060236
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
836 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AIR CIRCULATING AROUND UPPER LOW IN NWRN
WA THIS EVENING.  THE DRY AIR IS COMING INLAND ACROSS OREGON AND
INTO WRN IDAHO.  DEW POINTS IN ERN OREGON HAVE DIPPED BELOW 10F
THIS EVENING AND WERE STILL DROPPING IN WRN IDAHO.  THE UPPER
LOW WILL GO STRAIGHT SOUTH ALONG 120W WEDNESDAY...I.E. ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH CALIF
TO NEAR L.A. THURSDAY...THEN TURN EWD ACROSS SRN NV AND ARIZONA.
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO OUR SRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND OUR FORECAST HAS MID-RANGE POPS
FOR IT.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS AS WINDY AS TODAY BUT WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL
DEGS COOLER.  A LITTLE WARMER AND LESS WINDY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ALL THIS IS ALREADY IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT
DECREASING TO 5-15KT AFTER SUNSET THEN INCREASING TO NORTHWESTERLY-
NORTHERLY 15-25KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...
VARIABLE 5-15KT BECOMING NORTHERLY 10-20KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW WILL SPLIT AS ENERGY DROPS ALONG THE CASCADES INTO
CALIFORNIA. THE ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON
WEDNESDAY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND MTNS OF SW IDAHO.
THE LOW DROPS INTO CENTRAL CA BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT FOCUS
OF PRECIPITATION TO FAR SE OREGON AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO
...SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT MUCH
OF THE SNAKE PLAIN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW WILL TRACK
THROUGH FAR SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AT
ALL ELEVATIONS. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE BETTER POSITIONED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH THE CLOSED LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...OVER CA. IT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF US AS IT SLOWLY CHURNS EAST...CONTINUING TO
BRING SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO...UNTIL A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY...GIVING THE REGION A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT
LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 060236
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
836 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AIR CIRCULATING AROUND UPPER LOW IN NWRN
WA THIS EVENING.  THE DRY AIR IS COMING INLAND ACROSS OREGON AND
INTO WRN IDAHO.  DEW POINTS IN ERN OREGON HAVE DIPPED BELOW 10F
THIS EVENING AND WERE STILL DROPPING IN WRN IDAHO.  THE UPPER
LOW WILL GO STRAIGHT SOUTH ALONG 120W WEDNESDAY...I.E. ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AND CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH CALIF
TO NEAR L.A. THURSDAY...THEN TURN EWD ACROSS SRN NV AND ARIZONA.
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO OUR SRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND OUR FORECAST HAS MID-RANGE POPS
FOR IT.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS AS WINDY AS TODAY BUT WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL
DEGS COOLER.  A LITTLE WARMER AND LESS WINDY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ALL THIS IS ALREADY IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT
DECREASING TO 5-15KT AFTER SUNSET THEN INCREASING TO NORTHWESTERLY-
NORTHERLY 15-25KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...
VARIABLE 5-15KT BECOMING NORTHERLY 10-20KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW WILL SPLIT AS ENERGY DROPS ALONG THE CASCADES INTO
CALIFORNIA. THE ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON
WEDNESDAY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND MTNS OF SW IDAHO.
THE LOW DROPS INTO CENTRAL CA BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT FOCUS
OF PRECIPITATION TO FAR SE OREGON AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO
...SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT MUCH
OF THE SNAKE PLAIN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW WILL TRACK
THROUGH FAR SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AT
ALL ELEVATIONS. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE BETTER POSITIONED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH THE CLOSED LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...OVER CA. IT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF US AS IT SLOWLY CHURNS EAST...CONTINUING TO
BRING SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO...UNTIL A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY...GIVING THE REGION A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT
LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....AB



000
FXUS66 KPQR 052342 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
442 PM PDT TUE MAY  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
WEDNESDAY FOR A RISK OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO RETURN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.UPDATE...ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO
SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS DO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SALEM NORTHWARD...WITH THE HEAVIEST
CONCENTRATION BEING EAST OF INTERSTATE 5. IT APPEARS A DRY SLOT
SEVERELY LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS SOUTH OF SALEM...AND IT
APPEARS FAIRLY UNLIKELY THAT MUCH OF LANE COUNTY WILL SEE MUCH IF
ANY PRECIPITATION. ALSO CUT BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDER...CONFINING
IT TO THE NORTH COAST AFTER 8 PM.

ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
S WA/EXTREME N OR COAST AS A LOBE OF COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ONSHORE.
/WEAGLE


/PREV DISC ISSUED 227 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME SWRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE CONCENTRATED CLOSE TO THE LOW
CENTER...FOCUSED OVER WRN WA. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A DRY AIR TONGUE
ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE ENTERING WRN OREGON. SHOWER ACTIVITY NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE AS OF YET. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...FAVORED OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO THE WLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW. CASCADE WEB CAMS AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASING CLOUD TREND OVER THE
HIGHER LANE COUNTY CASCADES...IN THE CORE OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT AS
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES
TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON MAJOR ROADWAYS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW MIGRATING E-SE TONIGHT...THEN
SPLITTING INTO TWO PIECES BY WED. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS VALID 18Z WED
SHOW ONE PIECE OVER SRN ALBERTA AND THE MAIN ENERGY OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON. 12Z GFS HAS 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -28C WED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. THE STRONG MAY SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BOOST SFC TEMPS TO AROUND 60 DEG C IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ABOVE
THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. MODEL LIFTED INDICES EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND -1 TO -2 DEG C FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. NAM MODEL
SOUNDING FOR KPDX HAS ALMOST 500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE WED
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO 250-300 J/KG ON THE GFS. WED SHOULD HAVE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE UPPER LOW SETTLING OVER
CENTRAL OREGON. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WED REMAIN AROUND 4000 FT FOR A
CONTINUED THREAT OF SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ITS DIVE SOUTH WED NIGHT...ENDING UP OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY 12Z THU. WILL NEED TO LEAVE SOME LOW-END POPS OVER THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES WED NIGHT WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE STILL A
THREAT.

DECIDED TO PULL ALL MENTION OF POPS THU AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS
FURTHER SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED NEAR 135W AMPLIFIES AND
NUDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST THU AND THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRIER
N-NE FLOW ALOFT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU. GFS 850 MB TEMPS GO FROM +8 TO
+10C THU TO +12 TO +13C FRI. ECMWF VALUES LOOK TO BE 1-2C
COOLER...BUT THESE VALUES WOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS AT LEAST TO THE MID
70S INLAND. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AN OCCASIONAL MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER. EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO DECREASE
AFTER 03Z WEDNESDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT...BUT PICK BACK UP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25
KT FROM A HEAVIER SHOWER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A WESTERLY SWELL CURRENTLY BRINGING SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 TO 7 FT ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD A SUMMER-LIKE
NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
EXPECT PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30 KT WINDS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE SEAS COULD BECOME STEEP AND CHOPPY ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY
IF THE GUSTIER NORTHERLY WINDS MATERIALIZE.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 052342 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
442 PM PDT TUE MAY  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
WEDNESDAY FOR A RISK OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO RETURN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.UPDATE...ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO
SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS DO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SALEM NORTHWARD...WITH THE HEAVIEST
CONCENTRATION BEING EAST OF INTERSTATE 5. IT APPEARS A DRY SLOT
SEVERELY LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS SOUTH OF SALEM...AND IT
APPEARS FAIRLY UNLIKELY THAT MUCH OF LANE COUNTY WILL SEE MUCH IF
ANY PRECIPITATION. ALSO CUT BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDER...CONFINING
IT TO THE NORTH COAST AFTER 8 PM.

ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
S WA/EXTREME N OR COAST AS A LOBE OF COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ONSHORE.
/WEAGLE


/PREV DISC ISSUED 227 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME SWRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE CONCENTRATED CLOSE TO THE LOW
CENTER...FOCUSED OVER WRN WA. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A DRY AIR TONGUE
ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE ENTERING WRN OREGON. SHOWER ACTIVITY NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE AS OF YET. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...FAVORED OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO THE WLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW. CASCADE WEB CAMS AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASING CLOUD TREND OVER THE
HIGHER LANE COUNTY CASCADES...IN THE CORE OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT AS
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES
TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON MAJOR ROADWAYS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW MIGRATING E-SE TONIGHT...THEN
SPLITTING INTO TWO PIECES BY WED. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS VALID 18Z WED
SHOW ONE PIECE OVER SRN ALBERTA AND THE MAIN ENERGY OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON. 12Z GFS HAS 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -28C WED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. THE STRONG MAY SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BOOST SFC TEMPS TO AROUND 60 DEG C IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ABOVE
THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. MODEL LIFTED INDICES EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND -1 TO -2 DEG C FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. NAM MODEL
SOUNDING FOR KPDX HAS ALMOST 500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE WED
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO 250-300 J/KG ON THE GFS. WED SHOULD HAVE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE UPPER LOW SETTLING OVER
CENTRAL OREGON. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WED REMAIN AROUND 4000 FT FOR A
CONTINUED THREAT OF SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ITS DIVE SOUTH WED NIGHT...ENDING UP OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY 12Z THU. WILL NEED TO LEAVE SOME LOW-END POPS OVER THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES WED NIGHT WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE STILL A
THREAT.

DECIDED TO PULL ALL MENTION OF POPS THU AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS
FURTHER SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED NEAR 135W AMPLIFIES AND
NUDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST THU AND THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRIER
N-NE FLOW ALOFT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU. GFS 850 MB TEMPS GO FROM +8 TO
+10C THU TO +12 TO +13C FRI. ECMWF VALUES LOOK TO BE 1-2C
COOLER...BUT THESE VALUES WOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS AT LEAST TO THE MID
70S INLAND. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AN OCCASIONAL MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER. EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO DECREASE
AFTER 03Z WEDNESDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT...BUT PICK BACK UP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25
KT FROM A HEAVIER SHOWER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A WESTERLY SWELL CURRENTLY BRINGING SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 TO 7 FT ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD A SUMMER-LIKE
NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
EXPECT PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30 KT WINDS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE SEAS COULD BECOME STEEP AND CHOPPY ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY
IF THE GUSTIER NORTHERLY WINDS MATERIALIZE.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 052342 AAA
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
442 PM PDT TUE MAY  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
WEDNESDAY FOR A RISK OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO RETURN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.UPDATE...ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO
SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS DO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SALEM NORTHWARD...WITH THE HEAVIEST
CONCENTRATION BEING EAST OF INTERSTATE 5. IT APPEARS A DRY SLOT
SEVERELY LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS SOUTH OF SALEM...AND IT
APPEARS FAIRLY UNLIKELY THAT MUCH OF LANE COUNTY WILL SEE MUCH IF
ANY PRECIPITATION. ALSO CUT BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDER...CONFINING
IT TO THE NORTH COAST AFTER 8 PM.

ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE
S WA/EXTREME N OR COAST AS A LOBE OF COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ONSHORE.
/WEAGLE


/PREV DISC ISSUED 227 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME SWRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE CONCENTRATED CLOSE TO THE LOW
CENTER...FOCUSED OVER WRN WA. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A DRY AIR TONGUE
ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE ENTERING WRN OREGON. SHOWER ACTIVITY NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE AS OF YET. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...FAVORED OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO THE WLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW. CASCADE WEB CAMS AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASING CLOUD TREND OVER THE
HIGHER LANE COUNTY CASCADES...IN THE CORE OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT AS
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES
TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON MAJOR ROADWAYS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW MIGRATING E-SE TONIGHT...THEN
SPLITTING INTO TWO PIECES BY WED. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS VALID 18Z WED
SHOW ONE PIECE OVER SRN ALBERTA AND THE MAIN ENERGY OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON. 12Z GFS HAS 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -28C WED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. THE STRONG MAY SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BOOST SFC TEMPS TO AROUND 60 DEG C IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ABOVE
THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. MODEL LIFTED INDICES EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND -1 TO -2 DEG C FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. NAM MODEL
SOUNDING FOR KPDX HAS ALMOST 500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE WED
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO 250-300 J/KG ON THE GFS. WED SHOULD HAVE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE UPPER LOW SETTLING OVER
CENTRAL OREGON. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WED REMAIN AROUND 4000 FT FOR A
CONTINUED THREAT OF SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ITS DIVE SOUTH WED NIGHT...ENDING UP OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY 12Z THU. WILL NEED TO LEAVE SOME LOW-END POPS OVER THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES WED NIGHT WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE STILL A
THREAT.

DECIDED TO PULL ALL MENTION OF POPS THU AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS
FURTHER SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED NEAR 135W AMPLIFIES AND
NUDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST THU AND THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRIER
N-NE FLOW ALOFT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU. GFS 850 MB TEMPS GO FROM +8 TO
+10C THU TO +12 TO +13C FRI. ECMWF VALUES LOOK TO BE 1-2C
COOLER...BUT THESE VALUES WOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS AT LEAST TO THE MID
70S INLAND. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AN OCCASIONAL MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER. EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO DECREASE
AFTER 03Z WEDNESDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT...BUT PICK BACK UP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25
KT FROM A HEAVIER SHOWER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A WESTERLY SWELL CURRENTLY BRINGING SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 TO 7 FT ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD A SUMMER-LIKE
NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
EXPECT PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30 KT WINDS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE SEAS COULD BECOME STEEP AND CHOPPY ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY
IF THE GUSTIER NORTHERLY WINDS MATERIALIZE.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 052158 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
258 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT-TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...COURTESY OF A MOSTLY DRY...COOL UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH TONIGHT WILL
BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE UMQPUA BASIN AND COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ARE STILL WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY. TOMORROW INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES...BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. 850MB COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF ZERO OR JUST
BELOW ZERO ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...NOR ARE THE MEAGER CAPE VALUES SO
THUS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...A
BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW IS IN CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME DEFORMATION-
TYPE DYNAMICS FAVORING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT GUSTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN WITH WHAT WILL BE THE THIRD DAY IN A
ROW OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHEN EXAMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE THE IMPACT THRESHOLDS. THIS IS
PARTIALLY DUE TO MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...GROWERS SHOULD BE AWARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND WE
ARE NOT OUT THE WOODS YET IN TERMS OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL THIS
SPRING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER LAS VEGAS AND THE AIR MASS WARMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST NOTABLE
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WERE TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AND TO NUDGE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HIGHER
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INLAND ON SATURDAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.

BY SATURDAY EVENING, HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AS THE FIRST
SIGN OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER/COLDER WITH THE TROUGH BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE
MOIST AND ITS INDICATED TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MODEL SIMILARITY TO HAVE NUDGED UP THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE DEW POINTS. BUT,
THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESEMBLES THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR
AREA AND DOES NOT GENERATE MUCH QPF WITH A PATTERN OF COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DURING ALL OF THE LONG TERM WOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE NOTICEABLY
WETTER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH MODELS DO NOT
BRING IN ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND A STRAIGHT BLEND WAS UTILIZED AS THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MORE IN HARMONY WITH THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LAST FEW TROUGHS TO IMPACT OUR AREA.
/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 5 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS IS A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
WINDS AND WAVES PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR MARINE CONDITIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/18Z TAF CYCLE...SKIES ARE VFR WITH
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AND SKIES WILL MAINLY REMAIN
VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT, MODERATE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURATION WILL RETURN TO THE WEST SIDE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/DW/DW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 052158
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
258 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT-TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...COURTESY OF A MOSTLY DRY...COOL UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH TONIGHT WILL
BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE UMQPUA BASIN AND COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ARE STILL WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY. TOMORROW INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES...BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. 850MB COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF ZERO OR JUST
BELOW ZERO ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...NOR ARE THE MEAGER CAPE VALUES SO
THUS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...A
BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW IS IN CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME DEFORMATION-
TYPE DYNAMICS FAVORING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT GUSTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN WITH WHAT WILL BE THE THIRD DAY IN A
ROW OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHEN EXAMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE THE IMPACT THRESHOLDS. THIS IS
PARTIALLY DUE TO MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...GROWERS SHOULD BE AWARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND WE
ARE NOT OUT THE WOODS YET IN TERMS OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL THIS
SPRING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER LAS VEGAS AND THE AIR MASS WARMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST NOTABLE
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WERE TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AND TO NUDGE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HIGHER
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INLAND ON SATURDAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.

BY SATURDAY EVENING, HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AS THE FIRST
SIGN OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER/COLDER WITH THE TROUGH BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE
MOIST AND ITS INDICATED TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MODEL SIMILARITY TO HAVE NUDGED UP THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE DEW POINTS. BUT,
THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESEMBLES THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR
AREA AND DOES NOT GENERATE MUCH QPF WITH A PATTERN OF COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DURING ALL OF THE LONG TERM WOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE NOTICEABLY
WETTER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH MODELS DO NOT
BRING IN ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND A STRAIGHT BLEND WAS UTILIZED AS THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MORE IN HARMONY WITH THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LAST FEW TROUGHS TO IMPACT OUR AREA.
/DW

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 5 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS IS A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH WINDS
AND WAVES PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR MARINE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...FOR THE 05/18Z TAF CYCLE...SKIES ARE VFR WITH SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AND SKIES WILL MAINLY REMAIN VFR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT, MODERATE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL RETURN
TO THE WEST SIDE LATE THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/DW/DW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 052158
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
258 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT-TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...COURTESY OF A MOSTLY DRY...COOL UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH TONIGHT WILL
BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE UMQPUA BASIN AND COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ARE STILL WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY. TOMORROW INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES...BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. 850MB COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF ZERO OR JUST
BELOW ZERO ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...NOR ARE THE MEAGER CAPE VALUES SO
THUS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...A
BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW IS IN CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME DEFORMATION-
TYPE DYNAMICS FAVORING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT GUSTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN WITH WHAT WILL BE THE THIRD DAY IN A
ROW OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHEN EXAMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE THE IMPACT THRESHOLDS. THIS IS
PARTIALLY DUE TO MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...GROWERS SHOULD BE AWARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND WE
ARE NOT OUT THE WOODS YET IN TERMS OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL THIS
SPRING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER LAS VEGAS AND THE AIR MASS WARMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST NOTABLE
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WERE TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AND TO NUDGE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HIGHER
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INLAND ON SATURDAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.

BY SATURDAY EVENING, HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AS THE FIRST
SIGN OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER/COLDER WITH THE TROUGH BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE
MOIST AND ITS INDICATED TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MODEL SIMILARITY TO HAVE NUDGED UP THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE DEW POINTS. BUT,
THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESEMBLES THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR
AREA AND DOES NOT GENERATE MUCH QPF WITH A PATTERN OF COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DURING ALL OF THE LONG TERM WOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE NOTICEABLY
WETTER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH MODELS DO NOT
BRING IN ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND A STRAIGHT BLEND WAS UTILIZED AS THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MORE IN HARMONY WITH THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LAST FEW TROUGHS TO IMPACT OUR AREA.
/DW

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 5 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS IS A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH WINDS
AND WAVES PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR MARINE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...FOR THE 05/18Z TAF CYCLE...SKIES ARE VFR WITH SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AND SKIES WILL MAINLY REMAIN VFR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT, MODERATE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL RETURN
TO THE WEST SIDE LATE THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/DW/DW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 052158
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
258 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT-TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...COURTESY OF A MOSTLY DRY...COOL UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH TONIGHT WILL
BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE UMQPUA BASIN AND COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ARE STILL WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY. TOMORROW INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES...BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. 850MB COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF ZERO OR JUST
BELOW ZERO ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...NOR ARE THE MEAGER CAPE VALUES SO
THUS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...A
BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW IS IN CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME DEFORMATION-
TYPE DYNAMICS FAVORING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT GUSTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN WITH WHAT WILL BE THE THIRD DAY IN A
ROW OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHEN EXAMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE THE IMPACT THRESHOLDS. THIS IS
PARTIALLY DUE TO MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...GROWERS SHOULD BE AWARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND WE
ARE NOT OUT THE WOODS YET IN TERMS OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL THIS
SPRING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER LAS VEGAS AND THE AIR MASS WARMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST NOTABLE
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WERE TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AND TO NUDGE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HIGHER
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INLAND ON SATURDAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.

BY SATURDAY EVENING, HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AS THE FIRST
SIGN OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER/COLDER WITH THE TROUGH BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE
MOIST AND ITS INDICATED TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MODEL SIMILARITY TO HAVE NUDGED UP THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE DEW POINTS. BUT,
THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESEMBLES THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR
AREA AND DOES NOT GENERATE MUCH QPF WITH A PATTERN OF COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DURING ALL OF THE LONG TERM WOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE NOTICEABLY
WETTER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH MODELS DO NOT
BRING IN ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND A STRAIGHT BLEND WAS UTILIZED AS THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MORE IN HARMONY WITH THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LAST FEW TROUGHS TO IMPACT OUR AREA.
/DW

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 5 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS IS A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH WINDS
AND WAVES PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR MARINE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...FOR THE 05/18Z TAF CYCLE...SKIES ARE VFR WITH SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AND SKIES WILL MAINLY REMAIN VFR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT, MODERATE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL RETURN
TO THE WEST SIDE LATE THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/DW/DW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 052158
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
258 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT-TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...COURTESY OF A MOSTLY DRY...COOL UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH TONIGHT WILL
BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE UMQPUA BASIN AND COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ARE STILL WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY. TOMORROW INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES...BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. 850MB COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF ZERO OR JUST
BELOW ZERO ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...NOR ARE THE MEAGER CAPE VALUES SO
THUS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...A
BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW IS IN CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME DEFORMATION-
TYPE DYNAMICS FAVORING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT GUSTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN WITH WHAT WILL BE THE THIRD DAY IN A
ROW OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHEN EXAMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE THE IMPACT THRESHOLDS. THIS IS
PARTIALLY DUE TO MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...GROWERS SHOULD BE AWARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND WE
ARE NOT OUT THE WOODS YET IN TERMS OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL THIS
SPRING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER LAS VEGAS AND THE AIR MASS WARMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST NOTABLE
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WERE TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AND TO NUDGE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HIGHER
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INLAND ON SATURDAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.

BY SATURDAY EVENING, HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AS THE FIRST
SIGN OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER/COLDER WITH THE TROUGH BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE
MOIST AND ITS INDICATED TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MODEL SIMILARITY TO HAVE NUDGED UP THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE DEW POINTS. BUT,
THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESEMBLES THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR
AREA AND DOES NOT GENERATE MUCH QPF WITH A PATTERN OF COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DURING ALL OF THE LONG TERM WOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE NOTICEABLY
WETTER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH MODELS DO NOT
BRING IN ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND A STRAIGHT BLEND WAS UTILIZED AS THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MORE IN HARMONY WITH THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LAST FEW TROUGHS TO IMPACT OUR AREA.
/DW

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 5 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS IS A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH WINDS
AND WAVES PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR MARINE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...FOR THE 05/18Z TAF CYCLE...SKIES ARE VFR WITH SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AND SKIES WILL MAINLY REMAIN VFR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT, MODERATE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL RETURN
TO THE WEST SIDE LATE THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/DW/DW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 052158
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
258 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT-TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...COURTESY OF A MOSTLY DRY...COOL UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH TONIGHT WILL
BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE UMQPUA BASIN AND COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ARE STILL WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY. TOMORROW INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES...BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. 850MB COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF ZERO OR JUST
BELOW ZERO ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...NOR ARE THE MEAGER CAPE VALUES SO
THUS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...A
BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW IS IN CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME DEFORMATION-
TYPE DYNAMICS FAVORING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT GUSTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN WITH WHAT WILL BE THE THIRD DAY IN A
ROW OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHEN EXAMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE THE IMPACT THRESHOLDS. THIS IS
PARTIALLY DUE TO MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...GROWERS SHOULD BE AWARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND WE
ARE NOT OUT THE WOODS YET IN TERMS OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL THIS
SPRING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER LAS VEGAS AND THE AIR MASS WARMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST NOTABLE
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WERE TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AND TO NUDGE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HIGHER
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INLAND ON SATURDAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.

BY SATURDAY EVENING, HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AS THE FIRST
SIGN OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER/COLDER WITH THE TROUGH BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE
MOIST AND ITS INDICATED TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MODEL SIMILARITY TO HAVE NUDGED UP THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE DEW POINTS. BUT,
THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESEMBLES THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR
AREA AND DOES NOT GENERATE MUCH QPF WITH A PATTERN OF COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DURING ALL OF THE LONG TERM WOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE NOTICEABLY
WETTER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH MODELS DO NOT
BRING IN ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND A STRAIGHT BLEND WAS UTILIZED AS THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MORE IN HARMONY WITH THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LAST FEW TROUGHS TO IMPACT OUR AREA.
/DW

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 5 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS IS A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH WINDS
AND WAVES PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR MARINE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...FOR THE 05/18Z TAF CYCLE...SKIES ARE VFR WITH SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AND SKIES WILL MAINLY REMAIN VFR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT, MODERATE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL RETURN
TO THE WEST SIDE LATE THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/DW/DW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 052158 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
258 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT-TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...COURTESY OF A MOSTLY DRY...COOL UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH TONIGHT WILL
BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE UMQPUA BASIN AND COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ARE STILL WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY. TOMORROW INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES...BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. 850MB COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF ZERO OR JUST
BELOW ZERO ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...NOR ARE THE MEAGER CAPE VALUES SO
THUS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...A
BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW IS IN CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME DEFORMATION-
TYPE DYNAMICS FAVORING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT GUSTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN WITH WHAT WILL BE THE THIRD DAY IN A
ROW OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHEN EXAMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE THE IMPACT THRESHOLDS. THIS IS
PARTIALLY DUE TO MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...GROWERS SHOULD BE AWARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND WE
ARE NOT OUT THE WOODS YET IN TERMS OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL THIS
SPRING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER LAS VEGAS AND THE AIR MASS WARMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST NOTABLE
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WERE TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AND TO NUDGE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HIGHER
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INLAND ON SATURDAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.

BY SATURDAY EVENING, HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AS THE FIRST
SIGN OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER/COLDER WITH THE TROUGH BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE
MOIST AND ITS INDICATED TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MODEL SIMILARITY TO HAVE NUDGED UP THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE DEW POINTS. BUT,
THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESEMBLES THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR
AREA AND DOES NOT GENERATE MUCH QPF WITH A PATTERN OF COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DURING ALL OF THE LONG TERM WOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE NOTICEABLY
WETTER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH MODELS DO NOT
BRING IN ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND A STRAIGHT BLEND WAS UTILIZED AS THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MORE IN HARMONY WITH THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LAST FEW TROUGHS TO IMPACT OUR AREA.
/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 5 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS IS A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
WINDS AND WAVES PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR MARINE CONDITIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/18Z TAF CYCLE...SKIES ARE VFR WITH
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AND SKIES WILL MAINLY REMAIN
VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT, MODERATE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURATION WILL RETURN TO THE WEST SIDE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/DW/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 052158 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
258 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT-TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...COURTESY OF A MOSTLY DRY...COOL UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH TONIGHT WILL
BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE UMQPUA BASIN AND COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ARE STILL WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY. TOMORROW INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES...BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. 850MB COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF ZERO OR JUST
BELOW ZERO ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...NOR ARE THE MEAGER CAPE VALUES SO
THUS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...A
BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW IS IN CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME DEFORMATION-
TYPE DYNAMICS FAVORING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT GUSTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN WITH WHAT WILL BE THE THIRD DAY IN A
ROW OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHEN EXAMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE THE IMPACT THRESHOLDS. THIS IS
PARTIALLY DUE TO MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...GROWERS SHOULD BE AWARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND WE
ARE NOT OUT THE WOODS YET IN TERMS OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL THIS
SPRING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER LAS VEGAS AND THE AIR MASS WARMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST NOTABLE
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WERE TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AND TO NUDGE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HIGHER
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INLAND ON SATURDAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.

BY SATURDAY EVENING, HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AS THE FIRST
SIGN OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER/COLDER WITH THE TROUGH BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE
MOIST AND ITS INDICATED TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MODEL SIMILARITY TO HAVE NUDGED UP THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE DEW POINTS. BUT,
THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESEMBLES THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR
AREA AND DOES NOT GENERATE MUCH QPF WITH A PATTERN OF COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DURING ALL OF THE LONG TERM WOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE NOTICEABLY
WETTER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH MODELS DO NOT
BRING IN ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND A STRAIGHT BLEND WAS UTILIZED AS THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MORE IN HARMONY WITH THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LAST FEW TROUGHS TO IMPACT OUR AREA.
/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 5 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS IS A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
WINDS AND WAVES PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR MARINE CONDITIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/18Z TAF CYCLE...SKIES ARE VFR WITH
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AND SKIES WILL MAINLY REMAIN
VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT, MODERATE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURATION WILL RETURN TO THE WEST SIDE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/DW/DW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 052158 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
258 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT-TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...COURTESY OF A MOSTLY DRY...COOL UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH TONIGHT WILL
BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE UMQPUA BASIN AND COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ARE STILL WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY. TOMORROW INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES...BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. 850MB COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF ZERO OR JUST
BELOW ZERO ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...NOR ARE THE MEAGER CAPE VALUES SO
THUS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...A
BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW IS IN CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME DEFORMATION-
TYPE DYNAMICS FAVORING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT GUSTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AGAIN WITH WHAT WILL BE THE THIRD DAY IN A
ROW OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHEN EXAMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE THE IMPACT THRESHOLDS. THIS IS
PARTIALLY DUE TO MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...GROWERS SHOULD BE AWARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND WE
ARE NOT OUT THE WOODS YET IN TERMS OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL THIS
SPRING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER LAS VEGAS AND THE AIR MASS WARMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST NOTABLE
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WERE TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AND TO NUDGE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HIGHER
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INLAND ON SATURDAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES.

BY SATURDAY EVENING, HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AS THE FIRST
SIGN OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER/COLDER WITH THE TROUGH BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE
MOIST AND ITS INDICATED TRACK IS MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MODEL SIMILARITY TO HAVE NUDGED UP THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE DEW POINTS. BUT,
THE ECMWF SOLUTION RESEMBLES THE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR
AREA AND DOES NOT GENERATE MUCH QPF WITH A PATTERN OF COOL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DURING ALL OF THE LONG TERM WOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE NOTICEABLY
WETTER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH MODELS DO NOT
BRING IN ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND A STRAIGHT BLEND WAS UTILIZED AS THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MORE IN HARMONY WITH THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LAST FEW TROUGHS TO IMPACT OUR AREA.
/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 5 MAY 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THIS
WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS IS A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
WINDS AND WAVES PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR MARINE CONDITIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/18Z TAF CYCLE...SKIES ARE VFR WITH
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AND SKIES WILL MAINLY REMAIN
VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT, MODERATE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSCURATION WILL RETURN TO THE WEST SIDE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/DW/DW




000
FXUS66 KPQR 052128
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
227 PM PDT TUE MAY  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
WEDNESDAY FOR A RISK OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO RETURN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME SWRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE CONCENTRATED CLOSE TO THE LOW
CENTER...FOCUSED OVER WRN WA. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A DRY AIR TONGUE
ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE ENTERING WRN OREGON. SHOWER ACTIVITY NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE AS OF YET. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...FAVORED OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO THE WLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW. CASCADE WEB CAMS AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASING CLOUD TREND OVER THE
HIGHER LANE COUNTY CASCADES...IN THE CORE OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT AS
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES
TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON MAJOR ROADWAYS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW MIGRATING E-SE TONIGHT...THEN
SPLITTING INTO TWO PIECES BY WED. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS VALID 18Z WED
SHOW ONE PIECE OVER SRN ALBERTA AND THE MAIN ENERGY OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON. 12Z GFS HAS 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -28C WED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. THE STRONG MAY SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BOOST SFC TEMPS TO AROUND 60 DEG C IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ABOVE
THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. MODEL LIFTED INDICES EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND -1 TO -2 DEG C FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. NAM MODEL
SOUNDING FOR KPDX HAS ALMOST 500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE WED
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO 250-300 J/KG ON THE GFS. WED SHOULD HAVE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE UPPER LOW SETTLING OVER
CENTRAL OREGON. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WED REMAIN AROUND 4000 FT FOR A
CONTINUED THREAT OF SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ITS DIVE SOUTH WED NIGHT...ENDING UP OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY 12Z THU. WILL NEED TO LEAVE SOME LOW-END POPS OVER THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES WED NIGHT WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE STILL A
THREAT.

DECIDED TO PULL ALL MENTION OF POPS THU AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS
FURTHER SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED NEAR 135W AMPLIFIES AND
NUDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST THU AND THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRIER
N-NE FLOW ALOFT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU. GFS 850 MB TEMPS GO FROM +8 TO
+10C THU TO +12 TO +13C FRI. ECMWF VALUES LOOK TO BE 1-2C
COOLER...BUT THESE VALUES WOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS AT LEAST TO THE MID
70S INLAND. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AN OCCASIONAL MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER. EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO DECREASE
AFTER 03Z WEDNESDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT...BUT PICK BACK UP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25
KT FROM A HEAVIER SHOWER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A WESTERLY SWELL CURRENTLY BRINGING SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 TO 7 FT ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD A SUMMER-LIKE
NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
EXPECT PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30 KT WINDS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE SEAS COULD BECOME STEEP AND CHOPPY ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY
IF THE GUSTIER NORTHERLY WINDS MATERIALIZE.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 052128
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
227 PM PDT TUE MAY  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
WEDNESDAY FOR A RISK OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO RETURN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME SWRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE CONCENTRATED CLOSE TO THE LOW
CENTER...FOCUSED OVER WRN WA. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A DRY AIR TONGUE
ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE ENTERING WRN OREGON. SHOWER ACTIVITY NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE AS OF YET. KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...FAVORED OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO THE WLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW. CASCADE WEB CAMS AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASING CLOUD TREND OVER THE
HIGHER LANE COUNTY CASCADES...IN THE CORE OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT AS
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES
TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON MAJOR ROADWAYS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW MIGRATING E-SE TONIGHT...THEN
SPLITTING INTO TWO PIECES BY WED. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS VALID 18Z WED
SHOW ONE PIECE OVER SRN ALBERTA AND THE MAIN ENERGY OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON. 12Z GFS HAS 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -28C WED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. THE STRONG MAY SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY
BOOST SFC TEMPS TO AROUND 60 DEG C IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...ABOVE
THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. MODEL LIFTED INDICES EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND -1 TO -2 DEG C FROM THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. NAM MODEL
SOUNDING FOR KPDX HAS ALMOST 500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE WED
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO 250-300 J/KG ON THE GFS. WED SHOULD HAVE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE UPPER LOW SETTLING OVER
CENTRAL OREGON. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WED REMAIN AROUND 4000 FT FOR A
CONTINUED THREAT OF SMALL HAIL IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ITS DIVE SOUTH WED NIGHT...ENDING UP OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY 12Z THU. WILL NEED TO LEAVE SOME LOW-END POPS OVER THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES WED NIGHT WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE STILL A
THREAT.

DECIDED TO PULL ALL MENTION OF POPS THU AS THE UPPER LOW SINKS
FURTHER SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED NEAR 135W AMPLIFIES AND
NUDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST THU AND THU NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRIER
N-NE FLOW ALOFT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU. GFS 850 MB TEMPS GO FROM +8 TO
+10C THU TO +12 TO +13C FRI. ECMWF VALUES LOOK TO BE 1-2C
COOLER...BUT THESE VALUES WOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS AT LEAST TO THE MID
70S INLAND. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. TJ
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AN OCCASIONAL MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER. EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO DECREASE
AFTER 03Z WEDNESDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT...BUT PICK BACK UP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25
KT FROM A HEAVIER SHOWER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A WESTERLY SWELL CURRENTLY BRINGING SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 TO 7 FT ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD A SUMMER-LIKE
NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
EXPECT PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30 KT WINDS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE SEAS COULD BECOME STEEP AND CHOPPY ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY
IF THE GUSTIER NORTHERLY WINDS MATERIALIZE.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 052119
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
319 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW WILL SPLIT AS ENERGY DROPS ALONG THE CASCADES INTO
CALIFORNIA. THE ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON
WEDNESDAY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND MTNS OF SW IDAHO.
THE LOW DROPS INTO CENTRAL CA BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT FOCUS
OF PRECIPITATION TO FAR SE OREGON AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW
IDAHO...SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT
MUCH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY CIRCULATING THE LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH FAR SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIP AT ALL ELEVATIONS. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE BETTER POSITIONED
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH THE CLOSED LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...OVER CA. IT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF US AS IT SLOWLY CHURNS EAST...CONTINUING TO
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY TO SOUTHWEST IDAHO...UNTIL A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...GIVING THE REGION A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AND BOISE MNTS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ENDING BEFORE 06/06Z. SURFACE
WINDS...GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 15 KTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KTS IN THE VALLEYS...WILL CALM WITH THE SUNSET BUT WILL PICK UP
AGAIN AROUND 6/16Z ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...W 10-20 KTS...BECOMING 5-15 KTS AFTER 06/06Z.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....AB
AVIATION.....AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 052119
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
319 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW WILL SPLIT AS ENERGY DROPS ALONG THE CASCADES INTO
CALIFORNIA. THE ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON
WEDNESDAY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND MTNS OF SW IDAHO.
THE LOW DROPS INTO CENTRAL CA BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT FOCUS
OF PRECIPITATION TO FAR SE OREGON AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW
IDAHO...SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT
MUCH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY CIRCULATING THE LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH FAR SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIP AT ALL ELEVATIONS. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE BETTER POSITIONED
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH THE CLOSED LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...OVER CA. IT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF US AS IT SLOWLY CHURNS EAST...CONTINUING TO
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY TO SOUTHWEST IDAHO...UNTIL A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...GIVING THE REGION A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AND BOISE MNTS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ENDING BEFORE 06/06Z. SURFACE
WINDS...GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 15 KTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KTS IN THE VALLEYS...WILL CALM WITH THE SUNSET BUT WILL PICK UP
AGAIN AROUND 6/16Z ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...W 10-20 KTS...BECOMING 5-15 KTS AFTER 06/06Z.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....AB
AVIATION.....AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 052119
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
319 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW WILL SPLIT AS ENERGY DROPS ALONG THE CASCADES INTO
CALIFORNIA. THE ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON
WEDNESDAY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND MTNS OF SW IDAHO.
THE LOW DROPS INTO CENTRAL CA BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT FOCUS
OF PRECIPITATION TO FAR SE OREGON AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW
IDAHO...SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT
MUCH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY CIRCULATING THE LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH FAR SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIP AT ALL ELEVATIONS. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE BETTER POSITIONED
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH THE CLOSED LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...OVER CA. IT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF US AS IT SLOWLY CHURNS EAST...CONTINUING TO
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY TO SOUTHWEST IDAHO...UNTIL A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...GIVING THE REGION A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AND BOISE MNTS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ENDING BEFORE 06/06Z. SURFACE
WINDS...GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 15 KTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KTS IN THE VALLEYS...WILL CALM WITH THE SUNSET BUT WILL PICK UP
AGAIN AROUND 6/16Z ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...W 10-20 KTS...BECOMING 5-15 KTS AFTER 06/06Z.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....AB
AVIATION.....AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 052119
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
319 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW WILL SPLIT AS ENERGY DROPS ALONG THE CASCADES INTO
CALIFORNIA. THE ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON
WEDNESDAY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND MTNS OF SW IDAHO.
THE LOW DROPS INTO CENTRAL CA BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT FOCUS
OF PRECIPITATION TO FAR SE OREGON AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW
IDAHO...SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT
MUCH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY CIRCULATING THE LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH FAR SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIP AT ALL ELEVATIONS. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE BETTER POSITIONED
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH THE CLOSED LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...OVER CA. IT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF US AS IT SLOWLY CHURNS EAST...CONTINUING TO
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY TO SOUTHWEST IDAHO...UNTIL A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...GIVING THE REGION A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AND BOISE MNTS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ENDING BEFORE 06/06Z. SURFACE
WINDS...GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 15 KTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KTS IN THE VALLEYS...WILL CALM WITH THE SUNSET BUT WILL PICK UP
AGAIN AROUND 6/16Z ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...W 10-20 KTS...BECOMING 5-15 KTS AFTER 06/06Z.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....AB
AVIATION.....AB



000
FXUS66 KPDT 052035
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
135 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST OVERNIGHT WHERE INSTABILITY
REMAINS THE BEST. ON WEDNESDAY THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORMLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CALIFORNIA PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EVENING OR EARLY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD IN THIS FLOW FRIDAY AND THE TRACK IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AT PRESENT MODELS INDICATE THAT IT
WOULD DROP THROUGH IDAHO BUT IF IT TAKES A PATH FURTHER WEST IT
COULD HAVE MORE IMPACT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM...RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY BUT COOL
AT NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY LATE
SUNDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN
UPPER LOW INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS FROM LATE
SUNDAY UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE OREGON HIGHLANDS. BY TUESDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NE INTO WASHINGTON WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. 78


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS AT 4-6 THOUSAND FEET AGL WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR THIS LAYER TO DIMINISH
LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE LOWER CUMULUS REFORMING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
-SHRA/-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND LOCATION
TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TO PUT IN TAFS AT THE PRESENT TIME. GUSTY
W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND PICKUP AGAIN
FROM THE NW AT 10-15 KT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 78


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  61  39  69 /  10  20  20  10
ALW  42  64  42  72 /  10  20  10  10
PSC  43  67  43  76 /  10  20  10   0
YKM  38  64  40  74 /  20  30  20   0
HRI  41  66  40  74 /  10  20  10   0
ELN  37  62  39  74 /  20  30  20   0
RDM  30  56  29  64 /  10  20  30  10
LGD  36  58  38  65 /   0  20  20  10
GCD  34  58  35  65 /   0  20  20  10
DLS  42  66  42  77 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/78/78




000
FXUS66 KPDT 052035
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
135 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST OVERNIGHT WHERE INSTABILITY
REMAINS THE BEST. ON WEDNESDAY THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORMLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CALIFORNIA PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE EVENING OR EARLY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD IN THIS FLOW FRIDAY AND THE TRACK IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AT PRESENT MODELS INDICATE THAT IT
WOULD DROP THROUGH IDAHO BUT IF IT TAKES A PATH FURTHER WEST IT
COULD HAVE MORE IMPACT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM...RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY BUT COOL
AT NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY LATE
SUNDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN
UPPER LOW INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS FROM LATE
SUNDAY UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE OREGON HIGHLANDS. BY TUESDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NE INTO WASHINGTON WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. 78


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS AT 4-6 THOUSAND FEET AGL WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR THIS LAYER TO DIMINISH
LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE LOWER CUMULUS REFORMING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
-SHRA/-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND LOCATION
TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TO PUT IN TAFS AT THE PRESENT TIME. GUSTY
W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND PICKUP AGAIN
FROM THE NW AT 10-15 KT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 78


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  39  61  39  69 /  10  20  20  10
ALW  42  64  42  72 /  10  20  10  10
PSC  43  67  43  76 /  10  20  10   0
YKM  38  64  40  74 /  20  30  20   0
HRI  41  66  40  74 /  10  20  10   0
ELN  37  62  39  74 /  20  30  20   0
RDM  30  56  29  64 /  10  20  30  10
LGD  36  58  38  65 /   0  20  20  10
GCD  34  58  35  65 /   0  20  20  10
DLS  42  66  42  77 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/78/78



000
FXUS65 KBOI 051543
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
943 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR PICS SHOWING DRIER AIR PUSHING
INTO SE OREGON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS STILL BEING PULLED INTO
S-CENTRAL IDAHO. AS THE UPPER SLIDES INTO THE PAC NW THROUGH THE
DAY THE DRY AIR WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ACT TO LIMIT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS EAST OF
YELLOWPINE AND ATLANTA. HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF TWIN FALLS WILL
ALSO KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WITH THE COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT TO INCREASE WINDS
ACROSS THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE A GUSTY NW WIND THROUGH THE
SNAKE PLAIN...BAKER VALLEY AND OTHER OPEN TERRAIN. FORECAST FOR
TODAY IS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AND BOISE MNTS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ENDING BEFORE 06/06Z. SURFACE
WINDS...GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 15 KTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KTS THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING IN THE VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...W 10-20 KTS...BECOMING 5-15 KTS AFTER 06/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG AND COMPACT UPPER
LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MCCALL TO
ONTARIO TO ROME OREGON AS OF 3 AM MDT. A FEW SHOWERS WERE STILL
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING GUSTS TO 20 MPH
OR SO. WE EXPECT THE PRECIP TO MOVE EAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS
DRY AIR WILL PUNCH IN FROM THE SW AND ELIMINATE THE SHOWERS OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA....AND PERHAPS THE FAR SE
ALONG THE NV BORDER IN OWYHEE AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTIES. THERE
WILL BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA TO CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THE UPPER LOW ELONGATES AND STRETCHES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...OUR UPPER
FLOW WILL BACK TO SSW. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AND
THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN VALLEY
COUNTY. WED...THE LOW DROPS INTO OREGON AND MOISTURE RETURNS. WE
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED...MEANING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WED...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT
COOLING FROM YDAY...WITH HIGHS TODAY AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER. WE
WILL COOL ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.
OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THEY STILL DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE REGION FOR A MENTION OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH LATEST TRENDS OF THE MODELS NOT
DOING WELL THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND
AND ALSO STAYED NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL START OUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THEN
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 051543
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
943 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR PICS SHOWING DRIER AIR PUSHING
INTO SE OREGON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS STILL BEING PULLED INTO
S-CENTRAL IDAHO. AS THE UPPER SLIDES INTO THE PAC NW THROUGH THE
DAY THE DRY AIR WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ACT TO LIMIT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS EAST OF
YELLOWPINE AND ATLANTA. HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF TWIN FALLS WILL
ALSO KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WITH THE COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT TO INCREASE WINDS
ACROSS THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE A GUSTY NW WIND THROUGH THE
SNAKE PLAIN...BAKER VALLEY AND OTHER OPEN TERRAIN. FORECAST FOR
TODAY IS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AND BOISE MNTS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ENDING BEFORE 06/06Z. SURFACE
WINDS...GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 15 KTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KTS THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING IN THE VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...W 10-20 KTS...BECOMING 5-15 KTS AFTER 06/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG AND COMPACT UPPER
LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MCCALL TO
ONTARIO TO ROME OREGON AS OF 3 AM MDT. A FEW SHOWERS WERE STILL
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING GUSTS TO 20 MPH
OR SO. WE EXPECT THE PRECIP TO MOVE EAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS
DRY AIR WILL PUNCH IN FROM THE SW AND ELIMINATE THE SHOWERS OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA....AND PERHAPS THE FAR SE
ALONG THE NV BORDER IN OWYHEE AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTIES. THERE
WILL BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA TO CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THE UPPER LOW ELONGATES AND STRETCHES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...OUR UPPER
FLOW WILL BACK TO SSW. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AND
THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN VALLEY
COUNTY. WED...THE LOW DROPS INTO OREGON AND MOISTURE RETURNS. WE
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED...MEANING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WED...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT
COOLING FROM YDAY...WITH HIGHS TODAY AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER. WE
WILL COOL ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.
OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THEY STILL DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE REGION FOR A MENTION OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH LATEST TRENDS OF THE MODELS NOT
DOING WELL THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND
AND ALSO STAYED NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL START OUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THEN
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 051543
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
943 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR PICS SHOWING DRIER AIR PUSHING
INTO SE OREGON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS STILL BEING PULLED INTO
S-CENTRAL IDAHO. AS THE UPPER SLIDES INTO THE PAC NW THROUGH THE
DAY THE DRY AIR WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ACT TO LIMIT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS EAST OF
YELLOWPINE AND ATLANTA. HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF TWIN FALLS WILL
ALSO KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WITH THE COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT TO INCREASE WINDS
ACROSS THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE A GUSTY NW WIND THROUGH THE
SNAKE PLAIN...BAKER VALLEY AND OTHER OPEN TERRAIN. FORECAST FOR
TODAY IS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AND BOISE MNTS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ENDING BEFORE 06/06Z. SURFACE
WINDS...GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 15 KTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KTS THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING IN THE VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...W 10-20 KTS...BECOMING 5-15 KTS AFTER 06/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG AND COMPACT UPPER
LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MCCALL TO
ONTARIO TO ROME OREGON AS OF 3 AM MDT. A FEW SHOWERS WERE STILL
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING GUSTS TO 20 MPH
OR SO. WE EXPECT THE PRECIP TO MOVE EAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS
DRY AIR WILL PUNCH IN FROM THE SW AND ELIMINATE THE SHOWERS OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA....AND PERHAPS THE FAR SE
ALONG THE NV BORDER IN OWYHEE AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTIES. THERE
WILL BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA TO CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THE UPPER LOW ELONGATES AND STRETCHES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...OUR UPPER
FLOW WILL BACK TO SSW. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AND
THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN VALLEY
COUNTY. WED...THE LOW DROPS INTO OREGON AND MOISTURE RETURNS. WE
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED...MEANING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WED...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT
COOLING FROM YDAY...WITH HIGHS TODAY AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER. WE
WILL COOL ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.
OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THEY STILL DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE REGION FOR A MENTION OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH LATEST TRENDS OF THE MODELS NOT
DOING WELL THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND
AND ALSO STAYED NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL START OUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THEN
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 051543
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
943 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR PICS SHOWING DRIER AIR PUSHING
INTO SE OREGON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS STILL BEING PULLED INTO
S-CENTRAL IDAHO. AS THE UPPER SLIDES INTO THE PAC NW THROUGH THE
DAY THE DRY AIR WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ACT TO LIMIT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS EAST OF
YELLOWPINE AND ATLANTA. HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF TWIN FALLS WILL
ALSO KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WITH THE COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT TO INCREASE WINDS
ACROSS THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE A GUSTY NW WIND THROUGH THE
SNAKE PLAIN...BAKER VALLEY AND OTHER OPEN TERRAIN. FORECAST FOR
TODAY IS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AND BOISE MNTS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ENDING BEFORE 06/06Z. SURFACE
WINDS...GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 15 KTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KTS THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING IN THE VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...W 10-20 KTS...BECOMING 5-15 KTS AFTER 06/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG AND COMPACT UPPER
LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MCCALL TO
ONTARIO TO ROME OREGON AS OF 3 AM MDT. A FEW SHOWERS WERE STILL
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING GUSTS TO 20 MPH
OR SO. WE EXPECT THE PRECIP TO MOVE EAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS
DRY AIR WILL PUNCH IN FROM THE SW AND ELIMINATE THE SHOWERS OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA....AND PERHAPS THE FAR SE
ALONG THE NV BORDER IN OWYHEE AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTIES. THERE
WILL BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA TO CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THE UPPER LOW ELONGATES AND STRETCHES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...OUR UPPER
FLOW WILL BACK TO SSW. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AND
THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN VALLEY
COUNTY. WED...THE LOW DROPS INTO OREGON AND MOISTURE RETURNS. WE
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED...MEANING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WED...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT
COOLING FROM YDAY...WITH HIGHS TODAY AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER. WE
WILL COOL ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.
OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THEY STILL DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE REGION FOR A MENTION OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH LATEST TRENDS OF THE MODELS NOT
DOING WELL THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND
AND ALSO STAYED NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL START OUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THEN
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS66 KPQR 051542
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
841 AM PDT TUE MAY  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A RISK OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
RETURN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOCUSED OVER THE OREGON COAST RANGE...S WA AND N OREGON
CASCADES. CASCADE WEB CAMS INDICATING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 5000
FEET. HOODOO CAM...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SHOWING WET SNOW AT 4700
FT. NEW DUSTING OF SNOW AT MT. HOOD MEADOWS. 12Z KSLE FREEZING LEVEL
WAS AT 4800 FT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TKHE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 15Z. A COUPLE OF SHORT-WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ZONES TODAY.

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW MIGRATING E-SE TODAY...BUT NOT A LOT OF
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. THE MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT WILL DRIFT OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY...WITH THE AIR MASS ACROSS OUR CWA GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZING AS THIS COOL POOL PUSHES INLAND. GFS LI PROG HAS THE
BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY N OF A KTMK-KSLE-MT.
JEFFERSON LINE. NAMM MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KPDX AND IN N OREGON
CASCADES SHOW SURFACE-BASED CAPE AROUND 250 J/KG AND WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 4300 FT. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE AIR
MASS...WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR BETWEEN 850 AND 650 MB. RATHER LOW
WEB-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS POINT TO SMALL HAIL THREAT WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT OR NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY IMPACTS ON MAJOR ROADWAYS.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MAIN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH INTO
OREGON WED...WHICH WOULD LIKELY PROMOTE BETTER INSTABILITY DUE
TO COLDER AIR ALOFT. 12Z GFS HAS 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -28C WED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG MAY SUNSHINE LIKELY
WARMING SFC TEMPS TO AROUND 60 DEG C IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
LIFTED INDICES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -1 TO -2 DEG C. AS A RESULT BOTH
THE NAM/GFS SHOW WED AFTERNOON AS THE BEST CAPE DAY WITH
VALUES 200-500 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF OUR INLAND ZONES. ADDITIONALLY THE
OVERALL SETUP IS SIMILAR TO PAST MAY EVENTS...SUCH AS 26TH OF 2012
WHEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPED IN THE S WA CASCADES THEN DRIFTED
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EAST VANCOUVER/PORTLAND METRO DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SHOWERS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
WARMS ALOFT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY.

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH OVER THE NRN
SIERRAS BY 12Z THU. EXPECT WRAP-AROUND FLOW TO CONTINUE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER FAR SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME
MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OTHERWISE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AMPLIFIES AROUND 135W RESULTING IN DRIER N-NE FLOW ALOFT OVER
REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE COAST TO HAVE THE MOST SUNSHINE THU.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND WED...BUT
REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU.WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH A RETURN TO MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS
SATURDAY AS WELL. MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE...AND THUS WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. ON SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL BRING COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDS WITH A PUSH OF MARINE AIR AND A RETURN TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHILE MODELS VARY IN THE PATH OF THIS UPPER LOW...THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND UNTIL A LARGER UPPER
LOW SLIDES SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AN OCCASIONAL MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING ANY ONE TERMINAL...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z TUESDAY AND
03Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THE
MORE NORTHERN INTERIOR TAF SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH A CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 21Z TUESDAY AND
03Z WEDNESDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25
KT FROM A HEAVIER SHOWER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A WESTERLY SWELL CURRENTLY BRINGING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD A SUMMER-LIKE
NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
EXPECT PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30 KT WINDS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE SEAS COULD BECOME STEEP AND CHOPPY SUNDAY OR MONDAY IF
THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS MENTIONED EARLIER MATERIALIZE.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 051542
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
841 AM PDT TUE MAY  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A RISK OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
RETURN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOCUSED OVER THE OREGON COAST RANGE...S WA AND N OREGON
CASCADES. CASCADE WEB CAMS INDICATING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 5000
FEET. HOODOO CAM...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SHOWING WET SNOW AT 4700
FT. NEW DUSTING OF SNOW AT MT. HOOD MEADOWS. 12Z KSLE FREEZING LEVEL
WAS AT 4800 FT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TKHE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 15Z. A COUPLE OF SHORT-WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ZONES TODAY.

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW MIGRATING E-SE TODAY...BUT NOT A LOT OF
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. THE MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT WILL DRIFT OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY...WITH THE AIR MASS ACROSS OUR CWA GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZING AS THIS COOL POOL PUSHES INLAND. GFS LI PROG HAS THE
BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY N OF A KTMK-KSLE-MT.
JEFFERSON LINE. NAMM MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KPDX AND IN N OREGON
CASCADES SHOW SURFACE-BASED CAPE AROUND 250 J/KG AND WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 4300 FT. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE AIR
MASS...WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR BETWEEN 850 AND 650 MB. RATHER LOW
WEB-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS POINT TO SMALL HAIL THREAT WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT OR NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY IMPACTS ON MAJOR ROADWAYS.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MAIN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH INTO
OREGON WED...WHICH WOULD LIKELY PROMOTE BETTER INSTABILITY DUE
TO COLDER AIR ALOFT. 12Z GFS HAS 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -28C WED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG MAY SUNSHINE LIKELY
WARMING SFC TEMPS TO AROUND 60 DEG C IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
LIFTED INDICES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -1 TO -2 DEG C. AS A RESULT BOTH
THE NAM/GFS SHOW WED AFTERNOON AS THE BEST CAPE DAY WITH
VALUES 200-500 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF OUR INLAND ZONES. ADDITIONALLY THE
OVERALL SETUP IS SIMILAR TO PAST MAY EVENTS...SUCH AS 26TH OF 2012
WHEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPED IN THE S WA CASCADES THEN DRIFTED
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EAST VANCOUVER/PORTLAND METRO DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SHOWERS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
WARMS ALOFT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY.

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH OVER THE NRN
SIERRAS BY 12Z THU. EXPECT WRAP-AROUND FLOW TO CONTINUE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER FAR SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME
MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OTHERWISE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AMPLIFIES AROUND 135W RESULTING IN DRIER N-NE FLOW ALOFT OVER
REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE COAST TO HAVE THE MOST SUNSHINE THU.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND WED...BUT
REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU.WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH A RETURN TO MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS
SATURDAY AS WELL. MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE...AND THUS WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. ON SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL BRING COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDS WITH A PUSH OF MARINE AIR AND A RETURN TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHILE MODELS VARY IN THE PATH OF THIS UPPER LOW...THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND UNTIL A LARGER UPPER
LOW SLIDES SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AN OCCASIONAL MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING ANY ONE TERMINAL...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z TUESDAY AND
03Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THE
MORE NORTHERN INTERIOR TAF SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH A CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 21Z TUESDAY AND
03Z WEDNESDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25
KT FROM A HEAVIER SHOWER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A WESTERLY SWELL CURRENTLY BRINGING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD A SUMMER-LIKE
NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
EXPECT PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30 KT WINDS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE SEAS COULD BECOME STEEP AND CHOPPY SUNDAY OR MONDAY IF
THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS MENTIONED EARLIER MATERIALIZE.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 051542
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
841 AM PDT TUE MAY  5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A RISK OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
RETURN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. DRY AND
SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...KRTX DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOCUSED OVER THE OREGON COAST RANGE...S WA AND N OREGON
CASCADES. CASCADE WEB CAMS INDICATING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 5000
FEET. HOODOO CAM...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SHOWING WET SNOW AT 4700
FT. NEW DUSTING OF SNOW AT MT. HOOD MEADOWS. 12Z KSLE FREEZING LEVEL
WAS AT 4800 FT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TKHE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 15Z. A COUPLE OF SHORT-WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ZONES TODAY.

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW MIGRATING E-SE TODAY...BUT NOT A LOT OF
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. THE MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT WILL DRIFT OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY...WITH THE AIR MASS ACROSS OUR CWA GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZING AS THIS COOL POOL PUSHES INLAND. GFS LI PROG HAS THE
BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY N OF A KTMK-KSLE-MT.
JEFFERSON LINE. NAMM MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KPDX AND IN N OREGON
CASCADES SHOW SURFACE-BASED CAPE AROUND 250 J/KG AND WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 4300 FT. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE AIR
MASS...WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR BETWEEN 850 AND 650 MB. RATHER LOW
WEB-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS POINT TO SMALL HAIL THREAT WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT OR NEAR THE CASCADE
PASSES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY IMPACTS ON MAJOR ROADWAYS.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MAIN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH INTO
OREGON WED...WHICH WOULD LIKELY PROMOTE BETTER INSTABILITY DUE
TO COLDER AIR ALOFT. 12Z GFS HAS 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -28C WED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG MAY SUNSHINE LIKELY
WARMING SFC TEMPS TO AROUND 60 DEG C IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
LIFTED INDICES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -1 TO -2 DEG C. AS A RESULT BOTH
THE NAM/GFS SHOW WED AFTERNOON AS THE BEST CAPE DAY WITH
VALUES 200-500 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF OUR INLAND ZONES. ADDITIONALLY THE
OVERALL SETUP IS SIMILAR TO PAST MAY EVENTS...SUCH AS 26TH OF 2012
WHEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPED IN THE S WA CASCADES THEN DRIFTED
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EAST VANCOUVER/PORTLAND METRO DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SHOWERS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
WARMS ALOFT WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY.

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH OVER THE NRN
SIERRAS BY 12Z THU. EXPECT WRAP-AROUND FLOW TO CONTINUE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER FAR SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME
MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OTHERWISE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AMPLIFIES AROUND 135W RESULTING IN DRIER N-NE FLOW ALOFT OVER
REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE COAST TO HAVE THE MOST SUNSHINE THU.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND WED...BUT
REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU.WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH A RETURN TO MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS
SATURDAY AS WELL. MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE...AND THUS WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. ON SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL BRING COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDS WITH A PUSH OF MARINE AIR AND A RETURN TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHILE MODELS VARY IN THE PATH OF THIS UPPER LOW...THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND UNTIL A LARGER UPPER
LOW SLIDES SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
AN OCCASIONAL MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING ANY ONE TERMINAL...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 21Z TUESDAY AND
03Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THE
MORE NORTHERN INTERIOR TAF SITES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH A CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 21Z TUESDAY AND
03Z WEDNESDAY. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25
KT FROM A HEAVIER SHOWER...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A WESTERLY SWELL CURRENTLY BRINGING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD A SUMMER-LIKE
NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
EXPECT PERIODS OF GUSTY 25 TO 30 KT WINDS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE SEAS COULD BECOME STEEP AND CHOPPY SUNDAY OR MONDAY IF
THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS MENTIONED EARLIER MATERIALIZE.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
     PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 051538
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN IN THE PAST 5 DAYS OR SO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER...A MEASURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE`S MOISTURE...IS
IN THE DRIEST 10 PERCENT FOR THIS DAY. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA...IT WILL BE HARD TO
SQUEEZE OUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE LOW...AND I HAVE LOWERED THEM FURTHER BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE...AND FOCUSED OVER THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN.

GUSTY WINDS WERE OBSERVED MOST PLACES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND WE
WILL GENERALLY BE IN A BREEZY PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. TOMORROW STILL FEATURES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND INSTABILITY INCREASES.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
TROUGH AND UPCOMING RIDGING AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING IN
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING. THERE IS
A CHANCE TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BETWEEN 14-16Z,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND FOR NOW KEPT IT OUT OF THE ROSEBURG TAF.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY BETWEEN 14-16Z. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT TUESDAY, 4 MAY, 2015...MODELS SHOW WINDS
INCREASING ENOUGH TO REACH SMALL CRAFT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, THUS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT FOR
WINDS. IT`S POSSIBLE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO RAN THE HEADLINE UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY. STEEP
SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT
FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SWELL AND
CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND AREAS OF STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRESSURE INLAND. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 3 AM PDT TUESDAY, MAY 4, 2015...THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NEXT TO ZERO TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA BRINGING SLIGHT COOLING AT 500 MB. HOWEVER MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING AND LI`S ARE WELL IN THE POSITIVE RANGE.
SO WERE EXPECTING NOT MUCH MORE THAN SOME CUMULUS BUILD UPS IN THE
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CASCADES. ANY SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY
WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, IF ANYTHING AT
ALL. ALSO TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND MIN RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE CASCADES EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE MOST OF THE ISOLATED STORMS
WILL OCCUR THERE, BUT THERE`S ALSO A BETTER CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS
TO BE RAIN PRODUCERS. -PETRUCELLI

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BC/WA COAST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY WET OR DYNAMIC, BUT IT WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER WEATHER. DUE TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM, IT WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE TODAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
SO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE, AND LIGHTNING ISN`T EXPECTED.

HOWEVER, AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW AND THE UPPER COLD POOL (500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -30C) ARRIVES, WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP WEST OF THE CASCADES, SO THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FROM THE CASCADE CREST EAST. THE LOW
EXITS TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS STABILIZING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY, BUT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO MODOC COUNTY.

WE WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE PACNW. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SO I
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN AND TEMPERATURES UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAY TRY TO BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING
SHOWERY, COOL WEATHER AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS DO NOT
AGREE ON MUCH WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH AND THE GFS DIGGING A TROUGH OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES, CHANGES WERE NOT MADE. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/MAP/MAP



000
FXUS66 KPDT 051535
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
835 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THIS MEANS TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AND TONIGHT LOWS WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE SETTLING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD.
MOST OF THIS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY IN
WASHINGTON. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY LOOK MINIMAL AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY SO THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.

.AVIATION...18 TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED CU/STRATOCUMULUS AT 5-6 THOUSAND
FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BUILDUPS POSSIBLE AROUND KYKM.
THIS CLOUD LAYER WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
WESTERLY AT 15-25 KT AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. 78

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES TODAY MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER OREGON ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY THIS DAY AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB TEMPS AT -28.
THE STRONGER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH UPPER 50S AND 60S. GRADIENTS STILL FAVOR SOME BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. 94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS...BUT THUNDER HAS BEEN
REMOVED DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND A BUILDING NARROW...YET AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.  WILL KEEP VERY
BORDERLINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...IN CASE THE LOW STALLS OUT ALLOWING FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD.  BY MID DAY SUNDAY ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA.  MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO VALLEY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.  GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUES VERY WARM AND DRY FOR THE PERIOD.
IT`S NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT THAT THE GFS BRINGS IN A STRONGER MORE
UNSTABLE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK.  WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND.  WEBER

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS 5-15 KTS...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.  SCT 7-10 KFT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SCT-BKN 25KFT
CLOUD DECK AS WELL.  SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ON APPROACH WEST OF
KYKM...KDLS...KBDN...AND KRDM.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF KYKM AND KDLS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  39  61  39 /  10  10  20  20
ALW  66  42  64  41 /  10  10  20  20
PSC  70  43  67  42 /  10  10  20  20
YKM  65  38  64  40 /  20  20  30  20
HRI  68  41  66  40 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  62  37  62  38 /  20  20  30  30
RDM  60  30  56  32 /  10  10  20  30
LGD  61  36  58  37 /  10   0  20  20
GCD  63  34  58  34 /  10   0  20  30
DLS  65  42  66  42 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/78/78



000
FXUS66 KPDT 051535
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
835 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THIS MEANS TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AND TONIGHT LOWS WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE SETTLING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD.
MOST OF THIS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY IN
WASHINGTON. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY LOOK MINIMAL AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY SO THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.

.AVIATION...18 TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED CU/STRATOCUMULUS AT 5-6 THOUSAND
FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BUILDUPS POSSIBLE AROUND KYKM.
THIS CLOUD LAYER WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
WESTERLY AT 15-25 KT AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. 78

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES TODAY MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER OREGON ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY THIS DAY AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB TEMPS AT -28.
THE STRONGER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH UPPER 50S AND 60S. GRADIENTS STILL FAVOR SOME BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. 94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS...BUT THUNDER HAS BEEN
REMOVED DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND A BUILDING NARROW...YET AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.  WILL KEEP VERY
BORDERLINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...IN CASE THE LOW STALLS OUT ALLOWING FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD.  BY MID DAY SUNDAY ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA.  MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO VALLEY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.  GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUES VERY WARM AND DRY FOR THE PERIOD.
IT`S NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT THAT THE GFS BRINGS IN A STRONGER MORE
UNSTABLE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK.  WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND.  WEBER

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS 5-15 KTS...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.  SCT 7-10 KFT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SCT-BKN 25KFT
CLOUD DECK AS WELL.  SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ON APPROACH WEST OF
KYKM...KDLS...KBDN...AND KRDM.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF KYKM AND KDLS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  39  61  39 /  10  10  20  20
ALW  66  42  64  41 /  10  10  20  20
PSC  70  43  67  42 /  10  10  20  20
YKM  65  38  64  40 /  20  20  30  20
HRI  68  41  66  40 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  62  37  62  38 /  20  20  30  30
RDM  60  30  56  32 /  10  10  20  30
LGD  61  36  58  37 /  10   0  20  20
GCD  63  34  58  34 /  10   0  20  30
DLS  65  42  66  42 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/78/78



000
FXUS66 KPDT 051535
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
835 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THIS MEANS TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AND TONIGHT LOWS WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE SETTLING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD.
MOST OF THIS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY IN
WASHINGTON. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY LOOK MINIMAL AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY SO THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.

.AVIATION...18 TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED CU/STRATOCUMULUS AT 5-6 THOUSAND
FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BUILDUPS POSSIBLE AROUND KYKM.
THIS CLOUD LAYER WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
WESTERLY AT 15-25 KT AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. 78

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES TODAY MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER OREGON ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY THIS DAY AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB TEMPS AT -28.
THE STRONGER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH UPPER 50S AND 60S. GRADIENTS STILL FAVOR SOME BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. 94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS...BUT THUNDER HAS BEEN
REMOVED DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND A BUILDING NARROW...YET AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.  WILL KEEP VERY
BORDERLINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...IN CASE THE LOW STALLS OUT ALLOWING FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD.  BY MID DAY SUNDAY ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA.  MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO VALLEY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.  GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUES VERY WARM AND DRY FOR THE PERIOD.
IT`S NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT THAT THE GFS BRINGS IN A STRONGER MORE
UNSTABLE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK.  WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND.  WEBER

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS 5-15 KTS...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.  SCT 7-10 KFT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SCT-BKN 25KFT
CLOUD DECK AS WELL.  SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ON APPROACH WEST OF
KYKM...KDLS...KBDN...AND KRDM.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF KYKM AND KDLS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  39  61  39 /  10  10  20  20
ALW  66  42  64  41 /  10  10  20  20
PSC  70  43  67  42 /  10  10  20  20
YKM  65  38  64  40 /  20  20  30  20
HRI  68  41  66  40 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  62  37  62  38 /  20  20  30  30
RDM  60  30  56  32 /  10  10  20  30
LGD  61  36  58  37 /  10   0  20  20
GCD  63  34  58  34 /  10   0  20  30
DLS  65  42  66  42 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/78/78



000
FXUS66 KPDT 051535
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
835 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THIS MEANS TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AND TONIGHT LOWS WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE SETTLING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD.
MOST OF THIS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY IN
WASHINGTON. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY LOOK MINIMAL AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY SO THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.

.AVIATION...18 TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED CU/STRATOCUMULUS AT 5-6 THOUSAND
FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BUILDUPS POSSIBLE AROUND KYKM.
THIS CLOUD LAYER WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
WESTERLY AT 15-25 KT AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. 78

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES TODAY MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER OREGON ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY THIS DAY AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB TEMPS AT -28.
THE STRONGER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH UPPER 50S AND 60S. GRADIENTS STILL FAVOR SOME BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. 94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS...BUT THUNDER HAS BEEN
REMOVED DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND A BUILDING NARROW...YET AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.  WILL KEEP VERY
BORDERLINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...IN CASE THE LOW STALLS OUT ALLOWING FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD.  BY MID DAY SUNDAY ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA.  MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO VALLEY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.  GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUES VERY WARM AND DRY FOR THE PERIOD.
IT`S NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT THAT THE GFS BRINGS IN A STRONGER MORE
UNSTABLE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK.  WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND.  WEBER

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS 5-15 KTS...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.  SCT 7-10 KFT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SCT-BKN 25KFT
CLOUD DECK AS WELL.  SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ON APPROACH WEST OF
KYKM...KDLS...KBDN...AND KRDM.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF KYKM AND KDLS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  39  61  39 /  10  10  20  20
ALW  66  42  64  41 /  10  10  20  20
PSC  70  43  67  42 /  10  10  20  20
YKM  65  38  64  40 /  20  20  30  20
HRI  68  41  66  40 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  62  37  62  38 /  20  20  30  30
RDM  60  30  56  32 /  10  10  20  30
LGD  61  36  58  37 /  10   0  20  20
GCD  63  34  58  34 /  10   0  20  30
DLS  65  42  66  42 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/78/78



000
FXUS66 KPDT 051535
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
835 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THIS MEANS TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER AND TONIGHT LOWS WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE SETTLING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD.
MOST OF THIS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY IN
WASHINGTON. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY LOOK MINIMAL AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY SO THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.

.AVIATION...18 TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED CU/STRATOCUMULUS AT 5-6 THOUSAND
FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BUILDUPS POSSIBLE AROUND KYKM.
THIS CLOUD LAYER WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
WESTERLY AT 15-25 KT AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. 78

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES TODAY MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER OREGON ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY THIS DAY AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB TEMPS AT -28.
THE STRONGER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH UPPER 50S AND 60S. GRADIENTS STILL FAVOR SOME BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. 94

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS...BUT THUNDER HAS BEEN
REMOVED DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND A BUILDING NARROW...YET AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.  WILL KEEP VERY
BORDERLINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...IN CASE THE LOW STALLS OUT ALLOWING FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD.  BY MID DAY SUNDAY ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA.  MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO VALLEY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.  GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUES VERY WARM AND DRY FOR THE PERIOD.
IT`S NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT THAT THE GFS BRINGS IN A STRONGER MORE
UNSTABLE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK.  WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND.  WEBER

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS 5-15 KTS...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.  SCT 7-10 KFT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SCT-BKN 25KFT
CLOUD DECK AS WELL.  SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ON APPROACH WEST OF
KYKM...KDLS...KBDN...AND KRDM.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF KYKM AND KDLS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  39  61  39 /  10  10  20  20
ALW  66  42  64  41 /  10  10  20  20
PSC  70  43  67  42 /  10  10  20  20
YKM  65  38  64  40 /  20  20  30  20
HRI  68  41  66  40 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  62  37  62  38 /  20  20  30  30
RDM  60  30  56  32 /  10  10  20  30
LGD  61  36  58  37 /  10   0  20  20
GCD  63  34  58  34 /  10   0  20  30
DLS  65  42  66  42 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/78/78



000
FXUS66 KMFR 051237
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
537 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...MARINE...AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS
UPDATED.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING IN
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING. THERE IS
A CHANCE TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BETWEEN 14-16Z,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND FOR NOW KEPT IT OUT OF THE ROSEBURG TAF.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY BETWEEN 14-16Z. -PETRUCELLI


.MARINE...UPDATED 5 AM PDT TUESDAY, 4 MAY, 2015...MODELS SHOW
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO REACH SMALL CRAFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, THUS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT FOR WINDS. IT`S POSSIBLE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO RAN THE HEADLINE UNTIL 12Z
WEDNESDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...SUBSIDING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF SWELL AND CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND AREAS OF STEEP SEAS ARE
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRESSURE
INLAND. -PETRUCELLI

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 5 AM PDT TUESDAY, MAY 4, 2015...THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NEXT TO ZERO TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA BRINGING SLIGHT COOLING AT 500 MB.
HOWEVER MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING AND LI`S ARE WELL IN THE
POSITIVE RANGE. SO WERE EXPECTING NOT MUCH MORE THAN SOME CUMULUS
BUILD UPS IN THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CASCADES. ANY SHOWERS TODAY
WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT, IF ANYTHING AT ALL. ALSO TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND
MIN RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH COOLING
ALOFT. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE MOST OF THE ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR
THERE, BUT THERE`S ALS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BC/WA COAST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY WET OR DYNAMIC, BUT IT WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER WEATHER. DUE TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM, IT WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE TODAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
SO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE, AND LIGHTNING ISN`T EXPECTED.

HOWEVER, AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW AND THE UPPER COLD POOL (500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -30C) ARRIVES, WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP WEST OF THE CASCADES, SO THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FROM THE CASCADE CREST EAST. THE LOW
EXITS TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS STABILIZING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY, BUT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO MODOC COUNTY.

WE WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE PACNW. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SO I
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN AND TEMPERATURES UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAY TRY TO BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING
SHOWERY, COOL WEATHER AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS DO NOT
AGREE ON MUCH WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH AND THE GFS DIGGING A TROUGH OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES, CHANGES WERE NOT MADE. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 051237
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
537 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...MARINE...AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS
UPDATED.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING IN
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING. THERE IS
A CHANCE TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BETWEEN 14-16Z,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND FOR NOW KEPT IT OUT OF THE ROSEBURG TAF.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY BETWEEN 14-16Z. -PETRUCELLI


.MARINE...UPDATED 5 AM PDT TUESDAY, 4 MAY, 2015...MODELS SHOW
WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO REACH SMALL CRAFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, THUS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT FOR WINDS. IT`S POSSIBLE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO RAN THE HEADLINE UNTIL 12Z
WEDNESDAY. STEEP SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...SUBSIDING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF SWELL AND CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND AREAS OF STEEP SEAS ARE
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRESSURE
INLAND. -PETRUCELLI

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 5 AM PDT TUESDAY, MAY 4, 2015...THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NEXT TO ZERO TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA BRINGING SLIGHT COOLING AT 500 MB.
HOWEVER MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING AND LI`S ARE WELL IN THE
POSITIVE RANGE. SO WERE EXPECTING NOT MUCH MORE THAN SOME CUMULUS
BUILD UPS IN THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CASCADES. ANY SHOWERS TODAY
WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT, IF ANYTHING AT ALL. ALSO TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND
MIN RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH COOLING
ALOFT. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE MOST OF THE ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR
THERE, BUT THERE`S ALS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BC/WA COAST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY WET OR DYNAMIC, BUT IT WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER WEATHER. DUE TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM, IT WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE TODAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
SO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE, AND LIGHTNING ISN`T EXPECTED.

HOWEVER, AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW AND THE UPPER COLD POOL (500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -30C) ARRIVES, WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP WEST OF THE CASCADES, SO THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FROM THE CASCADE CREST EAST. THE LOW
EXITS TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS STABILIZING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY, BUT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO MODOC COUNTY.

WE WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE PACNW. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SO I
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN AND TEMPERATURES UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAY TRY TO BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING
SHOWERY, COOL WEATHER AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS DO NOT
AGREE ON MUCH WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH AND THE GFS DIGGING A TROUGH OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES, CHANGES WERE NOT MADE. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KPDT 051132 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
432 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES TODAY MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER OREGON ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY THIS DAY AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB TEMPS AT -28.
THE STRONGER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH UPPER 50S AND 60S. GRADIENTS STILL FAVOR SOME BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. 94

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS...BUT THUNDER HAS BEEN
REMOVED DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND A BUILDING NARROW...YET AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.  WILL KEEP VERY
BORDERLINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...IN CASE THE LOW STALLS OUT ALLOWING FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD.  BY MID DAY SUNDAY ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA.  MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO VALLEY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.  GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUES VERY WARM AND DRY FOR THE PERIOD.
IT`S NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT THAT THE GFS BRINGS IN A STRONGER MORE
UNSTABLE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK.  WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS 5-15 KTS...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.  SCT 7-10 KFT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SCT-BKN 25KFT
CLOUD DECK AS WELL.  SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ON APPROACH WEST OF
KYKM...KDLS...KBDN...AND KRDM.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF KYKM AND KDLS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  64  39  62  39 /  10  10  20  20
ALW  67  41  64  41 /  10  10  20  20
PSC  70  42  68  42 /  10  10  20  20
YKM  66  38  65  40 /  20  20  30  20
HRI  68  41  67  40 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  61  37  62  38 /  20  30  30  30
RDM  61  32  57  32 /  10  10  20  30
LGD  61  36  57  37 /  10  10  30  20
GCD  63  32  57  34 /  10  10  20  30
DLS  66  41  66  42 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/89/89



000
FXUS66 KPDT 051132 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
432 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES TODAY MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER OREGON ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY THIS DAY AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB TEMPS AT -28.
THE STRONGER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH UPPER 50S AND 60S. GRADIENTS STILL FAVOR SOME BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. 94

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS...BUT THUNDER HAS BEEN
REMOVED DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND A BUILDING NARROW...YET AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.  WILL KEEP VERY
BORDERLINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...IN CASE THE LOW STALLS OUT ALLOWING FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD.  BY MID DAY SUNDAY ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA.  MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO VALLEY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.  GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUES VERY WARM AND DRY FOR THE PERIOD.
IT`S NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT THAT THE GFS BRINGS IN A STRONGER MORE
UNSTABLE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK.  WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS 5-15 KTS...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.  SCT 7-10 KFT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SCT-BKN 25KFT
CLOUD DECK AS WELL.  SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ON APPROACH WEST OF
KYKM...KDLS...KBDN...AND KRDM.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF KYKM AND KDLS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  64  39  62  39 /  10  10  20  20
ALW  67  41  64  41 /  10  10  20  20
PSC  70  42  68  42 /  10  10  20  20
YKM  66  38  65  40 /  20  20  30  20
HRI  68  41  67  40 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  61  37  62  38 /  20  30  30  30
RDM  61  32  57  32 /  10  10  20  30
LGD  61  36  57  37 /  10  10  30  20
GCD  63  32  57  34 /  10  10  20  30
DLS  66  41  66  42 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/89/89




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050957
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
256 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL SHOWERY WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE REGION TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. ONCE LOW SHIFTS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN USA...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER REGION
WITH A DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER RETURNING THU...AND LASTING WELL INTO
THE COMING WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO OVER THE NE PAC OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR THESE SHOWERS NOW SITS NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS AM. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PAC NW TODAY AND WED.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH ZONES... WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

MODELS STILL SHOW THAT THE MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT WILL DRIFT OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY...WITH THE AIR MASS ACROSS OUR CWA GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZING AS THIS COOL POOL PUSHES INLAND. STILL... SEEMS BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER W WASHINGTON AND FAR NW OREGON TODAY.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TODAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
A LINCOLN CITY TO SALEM TO MT JEFFERSON LINE...WITH THE BEST THREAT
OVER W WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MAIN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH INTO
OREGON WED...WHICH WOULD LIKELY PROMOTE BETTER INSTABILITY DUE
TO COLDER AIR ALOFT. 00Z GFS HAS 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -28 TO -30 DEG C
RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG MAY
SUNSHINE LIKELY WARMING SFC TEMPS TO AROUND 60 DEG C IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIFTED INDICES LIKELY REACH -1 TO -3 DEG C. AS A
RESULT BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW WED AFTERNOON AS OUR BEST CAPE DAY WITH
200-500 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF OUR INLAND ZONES. ADDITIONALLY THE
OVERALL SETUP IS SIMILAR TO PAST MAY EVENTS...SUCH AS 26TH OF  2012
WHEN SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPED IN THE S WA CASCADES THEN DRIFTED
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EAST VANCOUVER/PORTLAND METRO DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF THUNDER TO SCATTERED
WED AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW CUT OFF AND STILL OFF THE BC
COAST THE CONFIDENCE JUST IS NOT THERE YET. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS THE AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT WITH DECREASING
INSTABILITY.

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH OVER THE NRN
SIERRAS BY 12Z THU. EXPECT WRAP-AROUND FLOW TO CONTINUE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER FAR SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME
MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE OREGON CASCADES AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
WEST AS THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OTHERWISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AMPLIFIES AROUND 135W RESULTING IN DRIER N-NE FLOW ALOFT OVER REST OF
THE AREA. EXPECT THE COAST TO HAVE THE MOST SUNSHINE THU. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TUE AND WED...BUT REBOUND TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH A RETURN TO MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS
SATURDAY AS WELL. MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE...AND THUS WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. ON SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL BRING COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CLOUDS WITH A PUSH OF MARINE AIR AND A RETURN TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR LATER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHILE MODELS VARY IN THE PATH OF THIS UPPER LOW...THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND UNTIL A LARGER UPPER
LOW SLIDES SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED FLIGHT RULES ARE POSSIBLE UNDER
HEAVIER SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE NORTH COAST AND INTERIOR.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR UNDER SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z.
&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW
THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRES REBUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND COULD BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TO THE WATERS...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. A
WEAK SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WESTERLY SWELL WILL BRING SEAS AROUND 10 FT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD RELAX BELOW 10 FT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
     TO 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 050948
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
248 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES TODAY MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER OREGON ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY THIS DAY AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB TEMPS AT -28.
THE STRONGER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH UPPER 50S AND 60S. GRADIENTS STILL FAVOR SOME BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. 94

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS...BUT THUNDER HAS BEEN
REMOVED DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND A BUILDING NARROW...YET AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.  WILL KEEP VERY
BORDERLINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...IN CASE THE LOW STALLS OUT ALLOWING FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD.  BY MID DAY SUNDAY ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA.  MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO VALLEY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.  GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUES VERY WARM AND DRY FOR THE PERIOD.
IT`S NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT THAT THE GFS BRINGS IN A STRONGER MORE
UNSTABLE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK.  WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 08Z. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
PACNW TOMORROW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  64  39  62  39 /  10  10  20  20
ALW  67  41  64  41 /  10  10  20  20
PSC  70  42  68  42 /  10  10  20  20
YKM  66  38  65  40 /  20  20  30  20
HRI  68  41  67  40 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  61  37  62  38 /  20  30  30  30
RDM  61  32  57  32 /  10  10  20  30
LGD  61  36  57  37 /  10  10  30  20
GCD  63  32  57  34 /  10  10  20  30
DLS  66  41  66  42 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/89/89



000
FXUS66 KPDT 050948
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
248 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES TODAY MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER OREGON ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY THIS DAY AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB TEMPS AT -28.
THE STRONGER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH UPPER 50S AND 60S. GRADIENTS STILL FAVOR SOME BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. 94

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS...BUT THUNDER HAS BEEN
REMOVED DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND A BUILDING NARROW...YET AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.  WILL KEEP VERY
BORDERLINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...IN CASE THE LOW STALLS OUT ALLOWING FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD.  BY MID DAY SUNDAY ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA.  MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO VALLEY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.  GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUES VERY WARM AND DRY FOR THE PERIOD.
IT`S NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT THAT THE GFS BRINGS IN A STRONGER MORE
UNSTABLE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK.  WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 08Z. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
PACNW TOMORROW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  64  39  62  39 /  10  10  20  20
ALW  67  41  64  41 /  10  10  20  20
PSC  70  42  68  42 /  10  10  20  20
YKM  66  38  65  40 /  20  20  30  20
HRI  68  41  67  40 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  61  37  62  38 /  20  30  30  30
RDM  61  32  57  32 /  10  10  20  30
LGD  61  36  57  37 /  10  10  30  20
GCD  63  32  57  34 /  10  10  20  30
DLS  66  41  66  42 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/89/89




000
FXUS65 KBOI 050918
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
318 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG AND COMPACT UPPER
LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MCCALL TO
ONTARIO TO ROME OREGON AS OF 3 AM MDT. A FEW SHOWERS WERE STILL
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING GUSTS TO 20 MPH
OR SO. WE EXPECT THE PRECIP TO MOVE EAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS
DRY AIR WILL PUNCH IN FROM THE SW AND ELIMINATE THE SHOWERS OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA....AND PERHAPS THE FAR SE
ALONG THE NV BORDER IN OWYHEE AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTIES. THERE
WILL BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA TO CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THE UPPER LOW ELONGATES AND STRETCHES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...OUR UPPER
FLOW WILL BACK TO SSW. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AND
THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN VALLEY
COUNTY. WED...THE LOW DROPS INTO OREGON AND MOISTURE RETURNS. WE
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED...MEANING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WED...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT
COOLING FROM YDAY...WITH HIGHS TODAY AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER. WE
WILL COOL ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.
OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THEY STILL DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE REGION FOR A MENTION OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH LATEST TRENDS OF THE MODELS NOT
DOING WELL THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND
AND ALSO STAYED NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL START OUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THEN
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERED-BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND ALONG THE
IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHWESTERLY 15-25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 050918
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
318 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG AND COMPACT UPPER
LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MCCALL TO
ONTARIO TO ROME OREGON AS OF 3 AM MDT. A FEW SHOWERS WERE STILL
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING GUSTS TO 20 MPH
OR SO. WE EXPECT THE PRECIP TO MOVE EAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS
DRY AIR WILL PUNCH IN FROM THE SW AND ELIMINATE THE SHOWERS OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA....AND PERHAPS THE FAR SE
ALONG THE NV BORDER IN OWYHEE AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTIES. THERE
WILL BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA TO CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THE UPPER LOW ELONGATES AND STRETCHES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...OUR UPPER
FLOW WILL BACK TO SSW. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AND
THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN VALLEY
COUNTY. WED...THE LOW DROPS INTO OREGON AND MOISTURE RETURNS. WE
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED...MEANING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WED...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT
COOLING FROM YDAY...WITH HIGHS TODAY AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER. WE
WILL COOL ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.
OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THEY STILL DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE REGION FOR A MENTION OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH LATEST TRENDS OF THE MODELS NOT
DOING WELL THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND
AND ALSO STAYED NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL START OUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THEN
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERED-BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND ALONG THE
IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHWESTERLY 15-25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 050918
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
318 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG AND COMPACT UPPER
LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MCCALL TO
ONTARIO TO ROME OREGON AS OF 3 AM MDT. A FEW SHOWERS WERE STILL
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING GUSTS TO 20 MPH
OR SO. WE EXPECT THE PRECIP TO MOVE EAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS
DRY AIR WILL PUNCH IN FROM THE SW AND ELIMINATE THE SHOWERS OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA....AND PERHAPS THE FAR SE
ALONG THE NV BORDER IN OWYHEE AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTIES. THERE
WILL BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA TO CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THE UPPER LOW ELONGATES AND STRETCHES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...OUR UPPER
FLOW WILL BACK TO SSW. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AND
THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN VALLEY
COUNTY. WED...THE LOW DROPS INTO OREGON AND MOISTURE RETURNS. WE
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED...MEANING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WED...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT
COOLING FROM YDAY...WITH HIGHS TODAY AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER. WE
WILL COOL ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.
OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THEY STILL DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE REGION FOR A MENTION OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH LATEST TRENDS OF THE MODELS NOT
DOING WELL THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND
AND ALSO STAYED NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL START OUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THEN
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERED-BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND ALONG THE
IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHWESTERLY 15-25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 050918
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
318 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG AND COMPACT UPPER
LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MCCALL TO
ONTARIO TO ROME OREGON AS OF 3 AM MDT. A FEW SHOWERS WERE STILL
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING GUSTS TO 20 MPH
OR SO. WE EXPECT THE PRECIP TO MOVE EAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS
DRY AIR WILL PUNCH IN FROM THE SW AND ELIMINATE THE SHOWERS OVER
ALL BUT THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA....AND PERHAPS THE FAR SE
ALONG THE NV BORDER IN OWYHEE AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTIES. THERE
WILL BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA TO CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THE UPPER LOW ELONGATES AND STRETCHES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...OUR UPPER
FLOW WILL BACK TO SSW. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AND
THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN VALLEY
COUNTY. WED...THE LOW DROPS INTO OREGON AND MOISTURE RETURNS. WE
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED...MEANING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA WED...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT
COOLING FROM YDAY...WITH HIGHS TODAY AROUND 10 DEGREES LOWER. WE
WILL COOL ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.
OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN DIVERGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THEY STILL DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE REGION FOR A MENTION OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR DRY CONDITIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH LATEST TRENDS OF THE MODELS NOT
DOING WELL THIS FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND
AND ALSO STAYED NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL START OUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THEN
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERED-BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND ALONG THE
IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHWESTERLY 15-25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS66 KMFR 050902
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
202 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BC/WA COAST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY WET OR DYNAMIC, BUT IT WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER WEATHER. DUE TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM, IT WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE TODAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
SO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE, AND LIGHTNING ISN`T EXPECTED.

HOWEVER, AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW AND THE UPPER COLD POOL (500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -30C) ARRIVES, WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP WEST OF THE CASCADES, SO THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FROM THE CASCADE CREST EAST. THE LOW
EXITS TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS STABILIZING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY, BUT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO MODOC COUNTY.

WE WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE PACNW. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SO I
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN AND TEMPERATURES UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAY TRY TO BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING
SHOWERY, COOL WEATHER AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS DO NOT
AGREE ON MUCH WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH AND THE GFS DIGGING A TROUGH OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES, CHANGES WERE NOT MADE. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/06Z TAF CYCLE...A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES
THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHER TERRAIN MAY BECOME
OBSCURED. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1030 PM PDT MONDAY, 4 MAY, 2015...WESTERLY SWELL
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. STEEP SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING...SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND AREAS OF STEEP
SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE WITH LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
     MORNING TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
     MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 050902
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
202 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BC/WA COAST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY WET OR DYNAMIC, BUT IT WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER WEATHER. DUE TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM, IT WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE TODAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
SO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE, AND LIGHTNING ISN`T EXPECTED.

HOWEVER, AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW AND THE UPPER COLD POOL (500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -30C) ARRIVES, WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP WEST OF THE CASCADES, SO THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FROM THE CASCADE CREST EAST. THE LOW
EXITS TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS STABILIZING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY, BUT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO MODOC COUNTY.

WE WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE PACNW. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SO I
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN AND TEMPERATURES UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAY TRY TO BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING
SHOWERY, COOL WEATHER AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS DO NOT
AGREE ON MUCH WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH AND THE GFS DIGGING A TROUGH OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES, CHANGES WERE NOT MADE. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/06Z TAF CYCLE...A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES
THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHER TERRAIN MAY BECOME
OBSCURED. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1030 PM PDT MONDAY, 4 MAY, 2015...WESTERLY SWELL
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. STEEP SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING...SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND AREAS OF STEEP
SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE WITH LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
     MORNING TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
     MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 050902
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
202 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BC/WA COAST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY WET OR DYNAMIC, BUT IT WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER WEATHER. DUE TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM, IT WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE TODAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
SO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE, AND LIGHTNING ISN`T EXPECTED.

HOWEVER, AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW AND THE UPPER COLD POOL (500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -30C) ARRIVES, WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP WEST OF THE CASCADES, SO THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FROM THE CASCADE CREST EAST. THE LOW
EXITS TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS STABILIZING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY, BUT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO MODOC COUNTY.

WE WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE PACNW. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SO I
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN AND TEMPERATURES UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAY TRY TO BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING
SHOWERY, COOL WEATHER AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS DO NOT
AGREE ON MUCH WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH AND THE GFS DIGGING A TROUGH OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES, CHANGES WERE NOT MADE. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/06Z TAF CYCLE...A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES
THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHER TERRAIN MAY BECOME
OBSCURED. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1030 PM PDT MONDAY, 4 MAY, 2015...WESTERLY SWELL
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. STEEP SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING...SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND AREAS OF STEEP
SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE WITH LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
     MORNING TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
     MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 050902
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
202 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BC/WA COAST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY WET OR DYNAMIC, BUT IT WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER WEATHER. DUE TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM, IT WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE TODAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
SO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE, AND LIGHTNING ISN`T EXPECTED.

HOWEVER, AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW AND THE UPPER COLD POOL (500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -30C) ARRIVES, WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP WEST OF THE CASCADES, SO THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FROM THE CASCADE CREST EAST. THE LOW
EXITS TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS STABILIZING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY, BUT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO MODOC COUNTY.

WE WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE PACNW. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, SO I
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN AND TEMPERATURES UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAY TRY TO BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING
SHOWERY, COOL WEATHER AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS DO NOT
AGREE ON MUCH WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH AND THE GFS DIGGING A TROUGH OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES, CHANGES WERE NOT MADE. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/06Z TAF CYCLE...A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES
THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHER TERRAIN MAY BECOME
OBSCURED. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1030 PM PDT MONDAY, 4 MAY, 2015...WESTERLY SWELL
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. STEEP SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING...SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND AREAS OF STEEP
SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE WITH LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
     MORNING TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
     MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050447
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
947 PM PDT MON MAY  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWERING TONIGHT WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR THE PASSES BY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW SUNBREAKS...WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL HAIL AND THUNDER. DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL
LINGER MOSTLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A NICE SURGE OF
W-NW WIND BEHIND IT. WEST WINDS GUSTED UP TO 30-40 MPH THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE INTO HOOD RIVER...WITH EVEN STRONGER GUSTS
NEARING 45 MPH AT THE DALLES. WINDS HAVE SINCE EASED SOMEWHAT AS
THERMAL PACKING ALONG THE FRONT WAS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SURGE
OF WIND...THOUGH BRISK WEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
GORGE AND ACROSS THE CASCADES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE AIR MASS IS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE
COLDEST AIR ALOFT HANGING BACK NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND IS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR MAY...WITH 500 MB TEMPS ANALYZED AROUND -32 DEG
C BY THE RAP. 500 MB TEMPS OFF OUR COAST REMAIN MUCH WARMER... NEAR
-20 DEG C. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT OF THUNDER ALONG THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON/NORTH OREGON COAST TONIGHT...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR
CLOUD TOPS TO BECOME HIGH ENOUGH TO PROMOTE CHARGE SEPARATION AND
LIGHTNING. THEREFORE DECREASED THE THUNDER CHANCES TO SLIGHT TONIGHT
ALONG THE NORTH COAST. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING...MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF TILLAMOOK.

THE MAIN COLD POOL WILL DRIFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY...WITH
THE AIR MASS ACROSS OUR CWA GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AS 500 MB TEMPS
DROP BELOW -25 DEG C. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN A BIT TOO SHALLOW FOR THUNDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN COWLITZ COUNTY. FOR EXAMPLE EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS ARE GENERALLY ONLY 12-14 KFT FOR PORTLAND AND EVEN SHALLOWER
SALEM SOUTHWARD. THAT SAID...THE STRONG MAY SUNSHINE COULD WARM SOME
SURFACE PARCELS JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE DEEPER SHOWERS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LIGHTNING. THEREFORE WE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
FOR TUESDAY NORTH OF A SALEM-NEWPORT LINE. SW WASHINGTON WILL
PROBABLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN OUR FORECAST AREA TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MAIN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH INTO
OREGON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY PROMOTE BETTER INSTABILITY DUE
TO COLDER AIR ALOFT. 00Z GFS HAS 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -28 TO -30 DEG C
RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG MAY
SUNSHINE LIKELY WARMING SFC TEMPS TO AROUND 60 DEG C IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIFTED INDICES LIKELY REACH -1 TO -3 DEG C. AS A
RESULT BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW WED AFTERNOON AS OUR BEST CAPE DAY WITH
200-500 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF OUR INLAND ZONES. ADDITIONALLY THE
OVERALL SETUP IS SIMILAR TO PAST MAY EVENTS...I BELIEVE ONE WAS ON
MAY 26 2012...WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPED IN THE S WA CASCADES AND
DRIFTED INTO THE PDX METRO DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WAS TEMPTED
TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF THUNDER TO SCATTERED WED AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
THE UPPER LOW CUT OFF AND STILL OFF THE BC COAST THE CONFIDENCE JUST
IS NOT THERE YET. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS THE
AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT AND CAPS MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY.

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH OVER THE NRN
SIERRAS BY 12Z THU. EXPECT WRAP-AROUND FLOW TO CONTINUE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR S PART OF THE CWA. MODELS ALSO HINT AT POTENTIAL
DEFORMATION SETTING UP NEAR THE S WA CASCADES THU FOR A CONTINUED
THREAT OF SHOWERS THERE. OTHERWISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES
AROUND 135W RESULTING IN N-NE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.
EXPECT THE COAST TO HAVE THE MOST SUNSHINE THU. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TUE AND WED...BUT REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THU.  WEAGLE/WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH A RETURN TO MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS
SATURDAY AS WELL. MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE...AND THUS WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.  BY SATURDAY EVENING...THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL BRING
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDS WITH A PUSH OF MARINE AIR
AND A RETURN TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHILE MODELS VARY IN THE PATH OF THIS UPPER LOW...THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND UNTIL A LARGER UPPER
LOW SLIDES SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT PUSHED INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE COAST AND
CASCADES. MODELS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
1500 AND 2500 FT 10Z TO 18Z TUE. BUT IT APPEARS THE LOW LEVELS
WILL BE MIXED ENOUGH TO LIMIT DURATION AND AREAL COVERAGE OF MVFR
CIGS. THERE APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TUE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY NORTH OF KSLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH TUE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AROUND
2000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z TUE. /26

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SAG OVER THE REGION BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RELATIVELY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MEANINGFUL WINDS. HOWEVER...AN INCOMING SWELL WILL BRING SEAS UP
TO AROUND 10 FT TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SEAS RELAX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL BRING
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
GUSTIEST WINDS...AROUND 25 KT OR SO...WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...AND BE STRONGEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MARINE IMPACTS LOOK
RELATIVELY LOW. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     5 AM TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 050447
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
947 PM PDT MON MAY  4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS WASHINGTON AND
OREGON. SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWERING TONIGHT WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR THE PASSES BY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW SUNBREAKS...WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL HAIL AND THUNDER. DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL
LINGER MOSTLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A NICE SURGE OF
W-NW WIND BEHIND IT. WEST WINDS GUSTED UP TO 30-40 MPH THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE INTO HOOD RIVER...WITH EVEN STRONGER GUSTS
NEARING 45 MPH AT THE DALLES. WINDS HAVE SINCE EASED SOMEWHAT AS
THERMAL PACKING ALONG THE FRONT WAS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SURGE
OF WIND...THOUGH BRISK WEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
GORGE AND ACROSS THE CASCADES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE AIR MASS IS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE
COLDEST AIR ALOFT HANGING BACK NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND IS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR MAY...WITH 500 MB TEMPS ANALYZED AROUND -32 DEG
C BY THE RAP. 500 MB TEMPS OFF OUR COAST REMAIN MUCH WARMER... NEAR
-20 DEG C. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT OF THUNDER ALONG THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON/NORTH OREGON COAST TONIGHT...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR
CLOUD TOPS TO BECOME HIGH ENOUGH TO PROMOTE CHARGE SEPARATION AND
LIGHTNING. THEREFORE DECREASED THE THUNDER CHANCES TO SLIGHT TONIGHT
ALONG THE NORTH COAST. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
TUE MORNING...MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF TILLAMOOK.

THE MAIN COLD POOL WILL DRIFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY...WITH
THE AIR MASS ACROSS OUR CWA GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AS 500 MB TEMPS
DROP BELOW -25 DEG C. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN A BIT TOO SHALLOW FOR THUNDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN COWLITZ COUNTY. FOR EXAMPLE EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS ARE GENERALLY ONLY 12-14 KFT FOR PORTLAND AND EVEN SHALLOWER
SALEM SOUTHWARD. THAT SAID...THE STRONG MAY SUNSHINE COULD WARM SOME
SURFACE PARCELS JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE DEEPER SHOWERS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LIGHTNING. THEREFORE WE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
FOR TUESDAY NORTH OF A SALEM-NEWPORT LINE. SW WASHINGTON WILL
PROBABLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN OUR FORECAST AREA TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MAIN UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH INTO
OREGON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY PROMOTE BETTER INSTABILITY DUE
TO COLDER AIR ALOFT. 00Z GFS HAS 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -28 TO -30 DEG C
RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG MAY
SUNSHINE LIKELY WARMING SFC TEMPS TO AROUND 60 DEG C IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LIFTED INDICES LIKELY REACH -1 TO -3 DEG C. AS A
RESULT BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW WED AFTERNOON AS OUR BEST CAPE DAY WITH
200-500 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF OUR INLAND ZONES. ADDITIONALLY THE
OVERALL SETUP IS SIMILAR TO PAST MAY EVENTS...I BELIEVE ONE WAS ON
MAY 26 2012...WHERE SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPED IN THE S WA CASCADES AND
DRIFTED INTO THE PDX METRO DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WAS TEMPTED
TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF THUNDER TO SCATTERED WED AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
THE UPPER LOW CUT OFF AND STILL OFF THE BC COAST THE CONFIDENCE JUST
IS NOT THERE YET. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS THE
AIR MASS WARMS ALOFT AND CAPS MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY.

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH OVER THE NRN
SIERRAS BY 12Z THU. EXPECT WRAP-AROUND FLOW TO CONTINUE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR S PART OF THE CWA. MODELS ALSO HINT AT POTENTIAL
DEFORMATION SETTING UP NEAR THE S WA CASCADES THU FOR A CONTINUED
THREAT OF SHOWERS THERE. OTHERWISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES
AROUND 135W RESULTING IN N-NE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.
EXPECT THE COAST TO HAVE THE MOST SUNSHINE THU. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TUE AND WED...BUT REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THU.  WEAGLE/WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH A RETURN TO MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS
SATURDAY AS WELL. MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH THE 12Z
CYCLE...AND THUS WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.  BY SATURDAY EVENING...THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL BRING
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDS WITH A PUSH OF MARINE AIR
AND A RETURN TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHILE MODELS VARY IN THE PATH OF THIS UPPER LOW...THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND UNTIL A LARGER UPPER
LOW SLIDES SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT PUSHED INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER THE COAST AND
CASCADES. MODELS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
1500 AND 2500 FT 10Z TO 18Z TUE. BUT IT APPEARS THE LOW LEVELS
WILL BE MIXED ENOUGH TO LIMIT DURATION AND AREAL COVERAGE OF MVFR
CIGS. THERE APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TUE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY NORTH OF KSLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH TUE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AROUND
2000 FT BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z TUE. /26

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SAG OVER THE REGION BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RELATIVELY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MEANINGFUL WINDS. HOWEVER...AN INCOMING SWELL WILL BRING SEAS UP
TO AROUND 10 FT TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SEAS RELAX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL BRING
INCREASING NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
GUSTIEST WINDS...AROUND 25 KT OR SO...WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...AND BE STRONGEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MARINE IMPACTS LOOK
RELATIVELY LOW. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD
     TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
     5 AM TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 050355 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
845 PM PDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION AND WAS
CROSSING OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT WHERE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE AND BEHIND THE FRONT WEST WINDS WERE GUSTING
BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER PORTIONS OF
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND WA/OR FOOTHILLS. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NE PAC WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE WASHINGTON COAST
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE WA/OR CASCADES
TOWARD MORNING. OTHER THAN FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW
TEMPERATURES THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR
NOW.

.AVIATION...BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 08Z. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACNW TOMORROW WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM PDT MON MAY 4 2015/

..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT
COMING ONTO THE WASHINGTON COAST AT THIS TIME. OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SOME INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON THAT WILL
RESULT INS SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT CREATING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
USHERING IN SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OTHER THAN ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST. THE COOLER UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES AND THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MAINLY
WASHINGTON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE HEART OF THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY SO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL SEE
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SETS IN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA MAY HAVE ENOUGH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY EVEN BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A TRANSITORY RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TRAVELING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES COULD
CREATE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEN ON MOTHERS DAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  63  38  61 /   0  10  10  20
ALW  47  67  41  63 /  10  10  10  20
PSC  47  70  40  67 /   0  10  10  20
YKM  42  66  37  65 /   0  20  20  30
HRI  47  68  40  66 /   0  10  10  20
ELN  43  62  36  63 /   0  20  30  30
RDM  35  61  31  57 /   0  10  10  20
LGD  43  62  36  57 /  20  10  10  20
GCD  40  64  34  58 /  10  10  10  20
DLS  47  66  40  66 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97




000
FXUS66 KPDT 050355 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
845 PM PDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION AND WAS
CROSSING OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT WHERE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE AND BEHIND THE FRONT WEST WINDS WERE GUSTING
BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER PORTIONS OF
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND WA/OR FOOTHILLS. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NE PAC WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE WASHINGTON COAST
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE WA/OR CASCADES
TOWARD MORNING. OTHER THAN FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW
TEMPERATURES THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR
NOW.

.AVIATION...BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 08Z. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACNW TOMORROW WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM PDT MON MAY 4 2015/

..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT
COMING ONTO THE WASHINGTON COAST AT THIS TIME. OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SOME INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON THAT WILL
RESULT INS SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT CREATING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
USHERING IN SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OTHER THAN ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST. THE COOLER UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES AND THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MAINLY
WASHINGTON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE HEART OF THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY SO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL SEE
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SETS IN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA MAY HAVE ENOUGH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY EVEN BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A TRANSITORY RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TRAVELING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES COULD
CREATE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEN ON MOTHERS DAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  63  38  61 /   0  10  10  20
ALW  47  67  41  63 /  10  10  10  20
PSC  47  70  40  67 /   0  10  10  20
YKM  42  66  37  65 /   0  20  20  30
HRI  47  68  40  66 /   0  10  10  20
ELN  43  62  36  63 /   0  20  30  30
RDM  35  61  31  57 /   0  10  10  20
LGD  43  62  36  57 /  20  10  10  20
GCD  40  64  34  58 /  10  10  10  20
DLS  47  66  40  66 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97




000
FXUS66 KPDT 050355 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
845 PM PDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION AND WAS
CROSSING OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT WHERE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE AND BEHIND THE FRONT WEST WINDS WERE GUSTING
BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER PORTIONS OF
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND WA/OR FOOTHILLS. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NE PAC WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE WASHINGTON COAST
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE WA/OR CASCADES
TOWARD MORNING. OTHER THAN FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW
TEMPERATURES THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR
NOW.

.AVIATION...BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 08Z. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACNW TOMORROW WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM PDT MON MAY 4 2015/

..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT
COMING ONTO THE WASHINGTON COAST AT THIS TIME. OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SOME INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON THAT WILL
RESULT INS SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT CREATING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
USHERING IN SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OTHER THAN ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST. THE COOLER UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES AND THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MAINLY
WASHINGTON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE HEART OF THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY SO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL SEE
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SETS IN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA MAY HAVE ENOUGH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY EVEN BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A TRANSITORY RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TRAVELING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES COULD
CREATE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEN ON MOTHERS DAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  63  38  61 /   0  10  10  20
ALW  47  67  41  63 /  10  10  10  20
PSC  47  70  40  67 /   0  10  10  20
YKM  42  66  37  65 /   0  20  20  30
HRI  47  68  40  66 /   0  10  10  20
ELN  43  62  36  63 /   0  20  30  30
RDM  35  61  31  57 /   0  10  10  20
LGD  43  62  36  57 /  20  10  10  20
GCD  40  64  34  58 /  10  10  10  20
DLS  47  66  40  66 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97




000
FXUS66 KPDT 050355 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
845 PM PDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION AND WAS
CROSSING OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT WHERE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE AND BEHIND THE FRONT WEST WINDS WERE GUSTING
BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER PORTIONS OF
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND WA/OR FOOTHILLS. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NE PAC WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE WASHINGTON COAST
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE WA/OR CASCADES
TOWARD MORNING. OTHER THAN FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW
TEMPERATURES THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR
NOW.

.AVIATION...BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 08Z. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACNW TOMORROW WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM PDT MON MAY 4 2015/

..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT
COMING ONTO THE WASHINGTON COAST AT THIS TIME. OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SOME INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER FAR EASTERN OREGON THAT WILL
RESULT INS SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT CREATING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
USHERING IN SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OTHER THAN ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST. THE COOLER UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES AND THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MAINLY
WASHINGTON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS DECREASING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE HEART OF THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY SO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL SEE
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SETS IN.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA MAY HAVE ENOUGH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY EVEN BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A TRANSITORY RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TRAVELING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES COULD
CREATE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEN ON MOTHERS DAY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  63  38  61 /   0  10  10  20
ALW  47  67  41  63 /  10  10  10  20
PSC  47  70  40  67 /   0  10  10  20
YKM  42  66  37  65 /   0  20  20  30
HRI  47  68  40  66 /   0  10  10  20
ELN  43  62  36  63 /   0  20  30  30
RDM  35  61  31  57 /   0  10  10  20
LGD  43  62  36  57 /  20  10  10  20
GCD  40  64  34  58 /  10  10  10  20
DLS  47  66  40  66 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/97




000
FXUS66 KMFR 050338
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 PM PDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY THIS
EVENING. A LONE THUNDERSTORM CELL DEVELOPED WEST OF ALTURAS IN
WESTERN MODOC COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA UNTIL AROUND 10 OR 11
PM, BUT WILL END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER MARINE PUSH WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH SOME CLOUDS LIKELY SPILLING OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE
INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. THERE CAN BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH OF THE DIVIDE. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/00Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
INLAND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CIGS INTO THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OREGON TO THE
CASCADES. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR TUESDAY
MORNING. INLAND...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN AROUND 09Z AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 17Z...THEN LIFTING TO
VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN OTHER AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON. ALSO EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN SOUTHERN OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH PARTIAL OBSCURATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE,
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN EASTERN
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN OREGON THIS EVENING. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 530 PM PDT MONDAY, 4 MAY, 2015...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY. INITIALLY, THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, SEAS WILL
BE LOW WITH A MIX OF WESTERLY SWELL AT 10 AND 17 SECONDS ALONG WITH
A SOUTHERLY SWELL AT 20 SECONDS. THEN SEAS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
DOMINATED BY A 14 TO 16 SECOND WESTERLY SWELL THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. STEEP 9 TO 10 FT SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING...SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING, MAY SEE AN AREA OF SMALL CRAFT
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS SOUTH OF GOLD
BEACH.  ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND AREAS OF
STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE
WITH LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS TO AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM PDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW...AND
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH AND DEEPENING THROUGH FRIDAY. MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...BRINGING UNSETTLED
SHOWERY WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING
A COOLING TREND ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING FROM THE COAST INTO
THE UMPQUA VALLEY...POSSIBLY OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES
BELOW OBSERVED HIGHS TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. LIGHT RAIN AND
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...SPREADING EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT THE
MOST. ON WEDNESDAY, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD...ANY SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ABOVE PASS LEVELS. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN MOST AREAS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EAST SIDE AS 500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
AROUND -28C. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS SW OREGON. HOWEVER RETURN FLOW FROM
THE LOW COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WARNER
MOUNTAINS. MSC/FB

LONG TERM...FRI, MAY 8TH THROUGH TUE, MAY 12TH...
WE WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS MEANS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME WEAK TO MODEST JET STREAM DYNAMICS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, TRANSLATING WEST TO EAST OVER TIME. WHILE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS USUALLY FAIRLY DRY FOR OUR AREA, WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO WRING OUT SOME SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST EASTWARD,
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN THE
GFS IN BUMPING THIS TROUGH EASTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REPRESENTS THE CONSENSUS OF THE TWO
WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE SHARP, HIGH AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRANSLATES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TROUGHING IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE WEST COAST, BUT, ONCE AGAIN, DETAILS REGARDING TIMING AND,
ESPECIALLY, PRECIPITATION LOCATION AND AMOUNTS ARE VERY MUCH IN
QUESTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. WE WILL AGAIN HAVE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND, AT TIMES, THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS, FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD DURING THIS PERIOD AS A COOLING TREND BACK TO
ABOUT NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OCCURS. HAVE
GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE TIMING
AND RELATED DETAILS OF THIS TROUGH, AS THE GFS SEEMED TO BE ON THE
FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDED A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE
12Z GFS SOLUTION, THOUGH TONED DOWN A BIT IN TERMS OF DETAILS DUE TO
THE LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL. BTL

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 1115 AM PDT MONDAY, MAY 4, 2015... A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TODAY,
BUT KEY PARAMETERS IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING
APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN THEY DID
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE WE HAD SOME HEALTHY BUILD-
UPS YESTERDAY, THERE WERE NO LIGHTNING FLASHES RECORDED IN CLOUD AND
FROM CLOUD TO GROUND. ADDITIONALLY, NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WAS
RECORDED BY THE AUTOMATED OBSERVATION NETWORK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING DOES INDICATE SOME AIR MASS INTRUSION FROM THE SIERRA
NEVADA, BUT EXPECT THIS AREA OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL MOST
LIKELY BE SHUNNED EAST OF THE WARNERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA TODAY DUE TO
A TAD BIT OF COOLING ALOFT, BUT LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THUS,
WHILE THERE IS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM
ABOUT THE SCOTT VALLEY AND TRINITY ALPS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY, THE RISK IS VERY SMALL, ON THE ORDER OF
10-20%. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     5 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ350.

$$

MAS/CC/MSC/FJB/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 050338
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 PM PDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY THIS
EVENING. A LONE THUNDERSTORM CELL DEVELOPED WEST OF ALTURAS IN
WESTERN MODOC COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA UNTIL AROUND 10 OR 11
PM, BUT WILL END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER MARINE PUSH WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH SOME CLOUDS LIKELY SPILLING OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE
INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. THERE CAN BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH OF THE DIVIDE. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/00Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
INLAND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CIGS INTO THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OREGON TO THE
CASCADES. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR TUESDAY
MORNING. INLAND...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN AROUND 09Z AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 17Z...THEN LIFTING TO
VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN OTHER AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON. ALSO EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN SOUTHERN OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH PARTIAL OBSCURATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE,
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN EASTERN
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN OREGON THIS EVENING. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 530 PM PDT MONDAY, 4 MAY, 2015...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY. INITIALLY, THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, SEAS WILL
BE LOW WITH A MIX OF WESTERLY SWELL AT 10 AND 17 SECONDS ALONG WITH
A SOUTHERLY SWELL AT 20 SECONDS. THEN SEAS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
DOMINATED BY A 14 TO 16 SECOND WESTERLY SWELL THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. STEEP 9 TO 10 FT SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING...SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING, MAY SEE AN AREA OF SMALL CRAFT
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS SOUTH OF GOLD
BEACH.  ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND AREAS OF
STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE
WITH LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS TO AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM PDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW...AND
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH AND DEEPENING THROUGH FRIDAY. MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...BRINGING UNSETTLED
SHOWERY WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING
A COOLING TREND ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING FROM THE COAST INTO
THE UMPQUA VALLEY...POSSIBLY OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES
BELOW OBSERVED HIGHS TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. LIGHT RAIN AND
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...SPREADING EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT THE
MOST. ON WEDNESDAY, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD...ANY SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ABOVE PASS LEVELS. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN MOST AREAS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EAST SIDE AS 500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
AROUND -28C. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS SW OREGON. HOWEVER RETURN FLOW FROM
THE LOW COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WARNER
MOUNTAINS. MSC/FB

LONG TERM...FRI, MAY 8TH THROUGH TUE, MAY 12TH...
WE WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS MEANS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME WEAK TO MODEST JET STREAM DYNAMICS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, TRANSLATING WEST TO EAST OVER TIME. WHILE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS USUALLY FAIRLY DRY FOR OUR AREA, WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO WRING OUT SOME SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST EASTWARD,
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN THE
GFS IN BUMPING THIS TROUGH EASTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REPRESENTS THE CONSENSUS OF THE TWO
WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE SHARP, HIGH AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRANSLATES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TROUGHING IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE WEST COAST, BUT, ONCE AGAIN, DETAILS REGARDING TIMING AND,
ESPECIALLY, PRECIPITATION LOCATION AND AMOUNTS ARE VERY MUCH IN
QUESTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. WE WILL AGAIN HAVE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND, AT TIMES, THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS, FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD DURING THIS PERIOD AS A COOLING TREND BACK TO
ABOUT NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OCCURS. HAVE
GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE TIMING
AND RELATED DETAILS OF THIS TROUGH, AS THE GFS SEEMED TO BE ON THE
FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDED A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE
12Z GFS SOLUTION, THOUGH TONED DOWN A BIT IN TERMS OF DETAILS DUE TO
THE LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL. BTL

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 1115 AM PDT MONDAY, MAY 4, 2015... A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TODAY,
BUT KEY PARAMETERS IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING
APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN THEY DID
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE WE HAD SOME HEALTHY BUILD-
UPS YESTERDAY, THERE WERE NO LIGHTNING FLASHES RECORDED IN CLOUD AND
FROM CLOUD TO GROUND. ADDITIONALLY, NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WAS
RECORDED BY THE AUTOMATED OBSERVATION NETWORK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING DOES INDICATE SOME AIR MASS INTRUSION FROM THE SIERRA
NEVADA, BUT EXPECT THIS AREA OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL MOST
LIKELY BE SHUNNED EAST OF THE WARNERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA TODAY DUE TO
A TAD BIT OF COOLING ALOFT, BUT LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THUS,
WHILE THERE IS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM
ABOUT THE SCOTT VALLEY AND TRINITY ALPS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY, THE RISK IS VERY SMALL, ON THE ORDER OF
10-20%. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     5 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ350.

$$

MAS/CC/MSC/FJB/BTL




000
FXUS65 KBOI 050230
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
830 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM OCCURRED AROUND 5 PM MDT ABOUT 15 MILES SW OF
BRUNEAU AND MOVED EAST ACROSS IDAHO HIGHWAY 51.  RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.  NO STRONG WINDS WERE REPORTED WITH ANY STORMS
TODAY.  AT 8 PM MDT RADAR SHOWED A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY E-W ACROSS
SRN ADA COUNTY...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH.  IT IS ESTIMATED TO REACH
BOISE AROUND 10 PM MDT BUT IT MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE THEN.  OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WERE GENERALLY PULSE-TYPE AND WEAK BUT ONE
STRONG CELL FORMED DURING MID-AFTERNOON IN SERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY.
LATEST MODELS TAKE THE MAIN NORTH PACIFIC UPPER LOW INTO WASHINGTON
TUESDAY. LOW WILL SPLIT EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER PART GOING
SOUTH TO CENTRAL CALIF THEN EAST...WHILE THE OTHER PART RETREATS
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA.  NONE OF THE MODELS BRINGS MUCH MOISTURE TO
OUR CWA AND POPS REMAIN LOW...BUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY STILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS.  OF COURSE MUCH COOLER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY WARMING AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK.  NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 05/04Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM 05/18Z TO 06/04Z IN
THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. SURFACE
WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. AFTER 05/15Z SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE TO NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN THE
VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10KFT MSL...SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KTS...THEN
AFTER 05/18Z BECOMING WNW 15-25 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET. PERIODS
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PAC NW KEEPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL OREGON MTNS AND WEST-
CENTRAL ID MTNS /NORTH OF MCCALL/ OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON
TONIGHT BRINGING GUSTY WINDS. LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COULD PRODUCE A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVES INTO SW IDAHO
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS SOLUTION IS LOW SO HAVE
KEPT IT OUT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. TUESDAY WILL BRING COOLER...
BREEZY AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS S-CENTRAL ID ALONG THE NV
BORDER AND EASTERN BOISE AND CENTRAL MTNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO ELONGATE ON WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY DIGS ALONG
THE CASCADES. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO
WHILE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SE OREGON. FOR NOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
TO INCLUDE THE SNAKE PLAIN...LOOK TO REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER 10 DEGREE DROP FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SPLIT FROM THE FLOW AND TRAVEL SOUTH...PASSING OVER OREGON ON
ITS WAY. THIS LOW WILL INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
IT MAKES ITS WAY FIRST SOUTH THEN EAST...THE REGION WILL DRY OUT ON
SUNDAY. DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY...MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...AND DAYTIME HEATING...UNTIL THIS WEEKEND/S DRY-OUT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SOMETIME MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...REACHING NORMAL
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SE OREGON/BAKER COUNTY/SOUTHERN SW
IDAHO/AND OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS...ENDING BY 5/6Z.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALONG THE ID/NV
BORDER AND OVER THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MTNS. SURFACE WINDS...12 KTS
OR LESS. GUSTS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...ALSO CHANCE OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST...MOSTLY IN THE MAGIC VALLEY. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SW 5-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 050230
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
830 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM OCCURRED AROUND 5 PM MDT ABOUT 15 MILES SW OF
BRUNEAU AND MOVED EAST ACROSS IDAHO HIGHWAY 51.  RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.  NO STRONG WINDS WERE REPORTED WITH ANY STORMS
TODAY.  AT 8 PM MDT RADAR SHOWED A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY E-W ACROSS
SRN ADA COUNTY...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH.  IT IS ESTIMATED TO REACH
BOISE AROUND 10 PM MDT BUT IT MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE THEN.  OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WERE GENERALLY PULSE-TYPE AND WEAK BUT ONE
STRONG CELL FORMED DURING MID-AFTERNOON IN SERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY.
LATEST MODELS TAKE THE MAIN NORTH PACIFIC UPPER LOW INTO WASHINGTON
TUESDAY. LOW WILL SPLIT EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER PART GOING
SOUTH TO CENTRAL CALIF THEN EAST...WHILE THE OTHER PART RETREATS
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA.  NONE OF THE MODELS BRINGS MUCH MOISTURE TO
OUR CWA AND POPS REMAIN LOW...BUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY STILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS.  OF COURSE MUCH COOLER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY WARMING AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK.  NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 05/04Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM 05/18Z TO 06/04Z IN
THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. SURFACE
WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. AFTER 05/15Z SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE TO NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN THE
VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10KFT MSL...SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KTS...THEN
AFTER 05/18Z BECOMING WNW 15-25 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET. PERIODS
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PAC NW KEEPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL OREGON MTNS AND WEST-
CENTRAL ID MTNS /NORTH OF MCCALL/ OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON
TONIGHT BRINGING GUSTY WINDS. LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COULD PRODUCE A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVES INTO SW IDAHO
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS SOLUTION IS LOW SO HAVE
KEPT IT OUT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. TUESDAY WILL BRING COOLER...
BREEZY AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS S-CENTRAL ID ALONG THE NV
BORDER AND EASTERN BOISE AND CENTRAL MTNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO ELONGATE ON WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY DIGS ALONG
THE CASCADES. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO
WHILE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SE OREGON. FOR NOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
TO INCLUDE THE SNAKE PLAIN...LOOK TO REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER 10 DEGREE DROP FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SPLIT FROM THE FLOW AND TRAVEL SOUTH...PASSING OVER OREGON ON
ITS WAY. THIS LOW WILL INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
IT MAKES ITS WAY FIRST SOUTH THEN EAST...THE REGION WILL DRY OUT ON
SUNDAY. DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY...MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...AND DAYTIME HEATING...UNTIL THIS WEEKEND/S DRY-OUT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SOMETIME MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...REACHING NORMAL
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SE OREGON/BAKER COUNTY/SOUTHERN SW
IDAHO/AND OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS...ENDING BY 5/6Z.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALONG THE ID/NV
BORDER AND OVER THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MTNS. SURFACE WINDS...12 KTS
OR LESS. GUSTS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...ALSO CHANCE OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST...MOSTLY IN THE MAGIC VALLEY. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SW 5-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 050230
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
830 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.  THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM OCCURRED AROUND 5 PM MDT ABOUT 15 MILES SW OF
BRUNEAU AND MOVED EAST ACROSS IDAHO HIGHWAY 51.  RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.  NO STRONG WINDS WERE REPORTED WITH ANY STORMS
TODAY.  AT 8 PM MDT RADAR SHOWED A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY E-W ACROSS
SRN ADA COUNTY...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH.  IT IS ESTIMATED TO REACH
BOISE AROUND 10 PM MDT BUT IT MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE THEN.  OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WERE GENERALLY PULSE-TYPE AND WEAK BUT ONE
STRONG CELL FORMED DURING MID-AFTERNOON IN SERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY.
LATEST MODELS TAKE THE MAIN NORTH PACIFIC UPPER LOW INTO WASHINGTON
TUESDAY. LOW WILL SPLIT EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER PART GOING
SOUTH TO CENTRAL CALIF THEN EAST...WHILE THE OTHER PART RETREATS
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA.  NONE OF THE MODELS BRINGS MUCH MOISTURE TO
OUR CWA AND POPS REMAIN LOW...BUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY STILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS.  OF COURSE MUCH COOLER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY WARMING AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK.  NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 05/04Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM 05/18Z TO 06/04Z IN
THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. SURFACE
WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. AFTER 05/15Z SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE TO NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN THE
VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10KFT MSL...SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KTS...THEN
AFTER 05/18Z BECOMING WNW 15-25 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET. PERIODS
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PAC NW KEEPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL OREGON MTNS AND WEST-
CENTRAL ID MTNS /NORTH OF MCCALL/ OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON
TONIGHT BRINGING GUSTY WINDS. LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COULD PRODUCE A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVES INTO SW IDAHO
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS SOLUTION IS LOW SO HAVE
KEPT IT OUT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. TUESDAY WILL BRING COOLER...
BREEZY AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS S-CENTRAL ID ALONG THE NV
BORDER AND EASTERN BOISE AND CENTRAL MTNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO ELONGATE ON WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY DIGS ALONG
THE CASCADES. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO
WHILE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SE OREGON. FOR NOW THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
TO INCLUDE THE SNAKE PLAIN...LOOK TO REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER 10 DEGREE DROP FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SPLIT FROM THE FLOW AND TRAVEL SOUTH...PASSING OVER OREGON ON
ITS WAY. THIS LOW WILL INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
IT MAKES ITS WAY FIRST SOUTH THEN EAST...THE REGION WILL DRY OUT ON
SUNDAY. DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY...MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...AND DAYTIME HEATING...UNTIL THIS WEEKEND/S DRY-OUT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SOMETIME MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...REACHING NORMAL
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SE OREGON/BAKER COUNTY/SOUTHERN SW
IDAHO/AND OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS...ENDING BY 5/6Z.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALONG THE ID/NV
BORDER AND OVER THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MTNS. SURFACE WINDS...12 KTS
OR LESS. GUSTS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...ALSO CHANCE OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST...MOSTLY IN THE MAGIC VALLEY. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SW 5-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....AB




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