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000
FXUS66 KPDT 282244
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 PM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LATEST PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A MARINE POLAR FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY, THEN AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE LOWER
BASIN AND YAKIMA VALLEY IN WASHINGTON. ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WILL
PRODUCE VARYING AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES LATE THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MARINE POLAR FRONT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL FALL FURTHER, REACHING THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE ARCTIC FRONT. OVERALL SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED
BELOW 5000 FEET DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SNOW LEVEL
DROP. SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE INDUCED SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT FAIR, DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL
BE LIFTING NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON ON
MONDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON HOW
FAR NORTH INTO WASHINGTON THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM YAKIMA
TO PULLMAN AND THEN GET PUSHED BACK SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WASHINGTON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE, PART OF NORTH CENTRAL OREGON FROM MADRAS NORTH AND THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN BY TUESDAY THE COLD AIR IS WASHED
OUT, LEAVING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON ON
TUESDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS. ML

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED
IN DAYS 6-7 OF THE FORECAST. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. EVEN THOUGH THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR THE
BASIN FLOOR AT NIGHT...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS MINIMAL FOR
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS. MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A WEAK RIDGE ON FRIDAY...AND THE UPCOMING SHIFT MAY DECIDE TO
REMOVE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA IF THIS MODEL TREND CONTINUES.
WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...WINDS 20-30 KTS WILL BE SEEN AT MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDLS WHICH WILL
BE 15-25 KTS. COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING SOUTH OVER WASHINGTON
TONIGHT WITH MAIN RAIN BAND PUSHED SOUTH OVER OREGON BY EARLY
SUNDAY. MVFR VISIBILITY AT KDLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z AS HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS MOVE THROUGH WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AT OTHER LOCATIONS. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  37  15  24 /  80  50  20   0
ALW  38  39  18  27 /  80  40  20   0
PSC  36  38  12  28 /  50  20  10   0
YKM  32  36  12  25 /  30  20   0   0
HRI  37  39  11  26 /  40  20  10   0
ELN  28  34   9  26 /  40  20   0   0
RDM  34  37  12  29 /  70  40  20   0
LGD  39  41  13  27 /  80  70  30   0
GCD  35  37  13  30 /  60  70  20   0
DLS  39  43  23  29 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING WAZ027-028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/93/85/93









000
FXUS66 KPDT 282244
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 PM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LATEST PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A MARINE POLAR FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY, THEN AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE LOWER
BASIN AND YAKIMA VALLEY IN WASHINGTON. ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WILL
PRODUCE VARYING AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES LATE THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MARINE POLAR FRONT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL FALL FURTHER, REACHING THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE ARCTIC FRONT. OVERALL SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED
BELOW 5000 FEET DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SNOW LEVEL
DROP. SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE INDUCED SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT FAIR, DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL
BE LIFTING NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON ON
MONDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON HOW
FAR NORTH INTO WASHINGTON THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM YAKIMA
TO PULLMAN AND THEN GET PUSHED BACK SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WASHINGTON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE, PART OF NORTH CENTRAL OREGON FROM MADRAS NORTH AND THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN BY TUESDAY THE COLD AIR IS WASHED
OUT, LEAVING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON ON
TUESDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS. ML

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED
IN DAYS 6-7 OF THE FORECAST. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. EVEN THOUGH THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR THE
BASIN FLOOR AT NIGHT...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS MINIMAL FOR
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS. MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A WEAK RIDGE ON FRIDAY...AND THE UPCOMING SHIFT MAY DECIDE TO
REMOVE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA IF THIS MODEL TREND CONTINUES.
WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...WINDS 20-30 KTS WILL BE SEEN AT MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDLS WHICH WILL
BE 15-25 KTS. COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING SOUTH OVER WASHINGTON
TONIGHT WITH MAIN RAIN BAND PUSHED SOUTH OVER OREGON BY EARLY
SUNDAY. MVFR VISIBILITY AT KDLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z AS HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS MOVE THROUGH WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AT OTHER LOCATIONS. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  37  15  24 /  80  50  20   0
ALW  38  39  18  27 /  80  40  20   0
PSC  36  38  12  28 /  50  20  10   0
YKM  32  36  12  25 /  30  20   0   0
HRI  37  39  11  26 /  40  20  10   0
ELN  28  34   9  26 /  40  20   0   0
RDM  34  37  12  29 /  70  40  20   0
LGD  39  41  13  27 /  80  70  30   0
GCD  35  37  13  30 /  60  70  20   0
DLS  39  43  23  29 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING WAZ027-028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/93/85/93









000
FXUS66 KPDT 282244
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 PM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LATEST PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A MARINE POLAR FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY, THEN AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE LOWER
BASIN AND YAKIMA VALLEY IN WASHINGTON. ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WILL
PRODUCE VARYING AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES LATE THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MARINE POLAR FRONT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL FALL FURTHER, REACHING THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE ARCTIC FRONT. OVERALL SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED
BELOW 5000 FEET DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SNOW LEVEL
DROP. SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE INDUCED SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT FAIR, DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL
BE LIFTING NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON ON
MONDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON HOW
FAR NORTH INTO WASHINGTON THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM YAKIMA
TO PULLMAN AND THEN GET PUSHED BACK SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WASHINGTON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE, PART OF NORTH CENTRAL OREGON FROM MADRAS NORTH AND THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN BY TUESDAY THE COLD AIR IS WASHED
OUT, LEAVING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON ON
TUESDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS. ML

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED
IN DAYS 6-7 OF THE FORECAST. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. EVEN THOUGH THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR THE
BASIN FLOOR AT NIGHT...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS MINIMAL FOR
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS. MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A WEAK RIDGE ON FRIDAY...AND THE UPCOMING SHIFT MAY DECIDE TO
REMOVE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA IF THIS MODEL TREND CONTINUES.
WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...WINDS 20-30 KTS WILL BE SEEN AT MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDLS WHICH WILL
BE 15-25 KTS. COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING SOUTH OVER WASHINGTON
TONIGHT WITH MAIN RAIN BAND PUSHED SOUTH OVER OREGON BY EARLY
SUNDAY. MVFR VISIBILITY AT KDLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z AS HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS MOVE THROUGH WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AT OTHER LOCATIONS. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  37  15  24 /  80  50  20   0
ALW  38  39  18  27 /  80  40  20   0
PSC  36  38  12  28 /  50  20  10   0
YKM  32  36  12  25 /  30  20   0   0
HRI  37  39  11  26 /  40  20  10   0
ELN  28  34   9  26 /  40  20   0   0
RDM  34  37  12  29 /  70  40  20   0
LGD  39  41  13  27 /  80  70  30   0
GCD  35  37  13  30 /  60  70  20   0
DLS  39  43  23  29 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING WAZ027-028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/93/85/93









000
FXUS66 KPDT 282244
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 PM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LATEST PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A MARINE POLAR FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY, THEN AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE LOWER
BASIN AND YAKIMA VALLEY IN WASHINGTON. ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WILL
PRODUCE VARYING AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO
FALL ALONG THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES LATE THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MARINE POLAR FRONT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL FALL FURTHER, REACHING THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE ARCTIC FRONT. OVERALL SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED
BELOW 5000 FEET DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SNOW LEVEL
DROP. SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE INDUCED SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT FAIR, DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL
BE LIFTING NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON ON
MONDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON HOW
FAR NORTH INTO WASHINGTON THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM YAKIMA
TO PULLMAN AND THEN GET PUSHED BACK SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WASHINGTON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE, PART OF NORTH CENTRAL OREGON FROM MADRAS NORTH AND THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN BY TUESDAY THE COLD AIR IS WASHED
OUT, LEAVING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON ON
TUESDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS. ML

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED
IN DAYS 6-7 OF THE FORECAST. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. EVEN THOUGH THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR THE
BASIN FLOOR AT NIGHT...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS MINIMAL FOR
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS. MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A WEAK RIDGE ON FRIDAY...AND THE UPCOMING SHIFT MAY DECIDE TO
REMOVE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA IF THIS MODEL TREND CONTINUES.
WISTER

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...WINDS 20-30 KTS WILL BE SEEN AT MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDLS WHICH WILL
BE 15-25 KTS. COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING SOUTH OVER WASHINGTON
TONIGHT WITH MAIN RAIN BAND PUSHED SOUTH OVER OREGON BY EARLY
SUNDAY. MVFR VISIBILITY AT KDLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z AS HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS MOVE THROUGH WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AT OTHER LOCATIONS. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  36  37  15  24 /  80  50  20   0
ALW  38  39  18  27 /  80  40  20   0
PSC  36  38  12  28 /  50  20  10   0
YKM  32  36  12  25 /  30  20   0   0
HRI  37  39  11  26 /  40  20  10   0
ELN  28  34   9  26 /  40  20   0   0
RDM  34  37  12  29 /  70  40  20   0
LGD  39  41  13  27 /  80  70  30   0
GCD  35  37  13  30 /  60  70  20   0
DLS  39  43  23  29 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING WAZ027-028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/93/85/93








  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 282242
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SNOW LEVELS HOVERING JUST ABOVE THE COAST
AND VALLEY FLOORS. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...WITH PERHAPS A
SLUSHY INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER HILLS. WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN FROM TIME TO TIME DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING STRONG AND CHILLY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND
ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH IS
LIKELY TO SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE COLD AIR MONDAY...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF SALEM DURING THE MORNING...
ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE GORGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDS FROM ABOUT KELSO TO TILLAMOOK AT THE MOMENT...PRESSING
SOUTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 20-25 MPH. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH
PORTLAND AROUND 4-5 PM AND EUGENE AROUND 10-11 PM. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS GENERALLY GUSTING 30-40 MPH
BOTH IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE COAST. BEHIND THE FRONT
AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OCCURS...ALONG WITH A QUICK
5-10 DEGREE F TEMPERATURE DROP. BY WEST COAST STANDARDS...THIS IS A
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT.

DESPITE THE SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...A
LOOK AT WSDOT WEBCAMS SHOWS SNOW IS ONLY FALLING TO ABOUT 3000 FEET
AT STEVENS PASS ROUGHLY 3 HOURS AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH.
WE INITIALLY HAD SOME CONCERN THAT SNOW LEVELS WOULD DROP QUICKLY
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR CASCADES AND
FOOTHILL ZONES...BUT BASED ON WHAT IS HAPPENING TO OUR NORTH IT
APPEARS POST-FRONTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE
INCHES OR SO. TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE LOWLANDS AROUND SEATTLE...SO IT APPEARS UNLIKELY
THAT OUR VALLEYS WILL SEE SNOW FROM THE INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE PAC NW SATURDAY...CAUSING A RESURGENCE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S WET SNOWFLAKES WILL
BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS...HOWEVER STICKING SNOW SHOULD
BE RELEGATED TO THE HILLS. THE WEST HILLS OF PORTLAND AND THE
CASCADE/COAST RANGE FOOTHILLS SURROUNDING THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY COULD
SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION...BUT IT SHOULD MAINLY BE ON
GRASSY SURFACES DUE TO OUR RECENT WARM SPELL. ABOVE 1000-1500 FT IS
WHERE SNOW MAY START TO STICK ON THE ROADS AND PRESENT TRAVEL
ISSUES...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SUN BREAKS BETWEEN THE SHOWERS TO
MITIGATE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE CASCADES... EASTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RAMP UP THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE. STRONG
AND CHILLY EAST WINDS WILL RESULT...AND THE COLD POOL AGAIN APPEARS
DEEP ENOUGH FOR THE EAST WINDS TO AFFECT THE WHOLE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO AREA. WITH THE 12Z 4KM UW WRFGFS KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
APPROACHING -9 TO -10 MB AND KOTH-KGEG PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPROACHING
-17 TO -19 MB...THIS EAST WIND EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS OUR BIG EAST WIND EVENT EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT IT WILL
STILL BE FORMIDABLE. EXPECT EAST WIND GUSTS 60-70 MPH IN THE WEST END
OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND GUSTS 40-50 MPH IN THE GREATER
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA. THIS WOULD WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH MAY BE ISSUED BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO PROJECT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE.

THE STRONG EAST WINDS WILL DRY OUT OUR AIR MASS SUNDAY...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING MOST AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE MORE
OR LESS IN CONSENSUS NOW THAT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE
COMBINATION OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AND OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION...
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN VALLEYS. THE
GREATEST THREAT IS IN AND NEAR THE GORGE WHERE COLD AIR WILL BE MOST
STUBBORN. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS
EVENT WILL PLAY OUT...BUT FOR NOW WE INCREASED POPS...FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES...AND POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS MONDAY. KEPT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS FAIRLY MINIMAL AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...THOUGH IF CURRENT MODELS ARE TO BE BELIEVED THERE COULD
BE MORE SIGNIFICANT ICING THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT HAVING THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFT A WARM
FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
12Z MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF DUMPED OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREVAILING EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...AND AS THE PRECIP LIFTS NORTH-
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
OVER THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND THE GORGE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MODELS DRAG THE PARENT LOW FURTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE TUESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
STARTING WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. STILL LOW
CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE OVERALL TRACK OF THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM. IT
COULD EITHER PUSH ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MAINTAIN
SEASONABLY WET CONDITIONS AS THE 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS...OR THE LOW
COULD PUSH INLAND OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP
STAYING SOUTH OF OUR AREA AS THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS. WENT MORE TOWARDS
CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. /27

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR THIS
AFTERNOON. AT 2 PM...COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST N OF KTMK TO
KKLS TO MT RAINIER. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH S ACROSS NW OREGON THIS
EVENING. ONCE FRONT PUSHES S...AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND LOW VFR THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SAT AM. EXPECT
HIGHER TERRAIN TO BE OBSCURED IN PRECIP AND CLOUD THROUGH SAT AM.
COLD AIR SPREADING INTO REGION LATER TONIGHT...WITH MIX OF SNOW
AND RAIN DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS EARLY SAT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM N TO S SAT AFTERNOON AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...BREEZY AND RAINY WITH MVFR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OPS AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z.
WINDS WILL TURN W OR NW...WITH RAIN DECREASING AFTER 04Z. WILL
SEE LOW VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND SHOWERS INTO SAT AM. WILL SEE
SNOW IN SHOWERS AFTER 12Z...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS
GROUND REMAINS TOO WARM. DRYING AND VFR AFTER 20Z SAT. ROCKEY.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY S WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTS 25 TO
30 KT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SHORE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AT 2 AM FRI...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS JUST N
TILLAMOOK...AND WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AND REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SAT AM.

SEAS RUNNING 11 TO 14 FT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SAT. HOWEVER...LIKELY TO HOLD CLOSE TO 10 FT
ON THE WATERS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

WINDS EASE LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH GRADIENTS BECOMING
OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER PAC NW. LIKELY
SEE GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT IN THE COASTAL GAPS ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SAT AM.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
      SAT AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR TONIGHT
      THROUGH SAT AM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 282242
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SNOW LEVELS HOVERING JUST ABOVE THE COAST
AND VALLEY FLOORS. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...WITH PERHAPS A
SLUSHY INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER HILLS. WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN FROM TIME TO TIME DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING STRONG AND CHILLY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND
ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH IS
LIKELY TO SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE COLD AIR MONDAY...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF SALEM DURING THE MORNING...
ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE GORGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDS FROM ABOUT KELSO TO TILLAMOOK AT THE MOMENT...PRESSING
SOUTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 20-25 MPH. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH
PORTLAND AROUND 4-5 PM AND EUGENE AROUND 10-11 PM. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS GENERALLY GUSTING 30-40 MPH
BOTH IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE COAST. BEHIND THE FRONT
AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OCCURS...ALONG WITH A QUICK
5-10 DEGREE F TEMPERATURE DROP. BY WEST COAST STANDARDS...THIS IS A
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT.

DESPITE THE SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...A
LOOK AT WSDOT WEBCAMS SHOWS SNOW IS ONLY FALLING TO ABOUT 3000 FEET
AT STEVENS PASS ROUGHLY 3 HOURS AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH.
WE INITIALLY HAD SOME CONCERN THAT SNOW LEVELS WOULD DROP QUICKLY
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR CASCADES AND
FOOTHILL ZONES...BUT BASED ON WHAT IS HAPPENING TO OUR NORTH IT
APPEARS POST-FRONTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE
INCHES OR SO. TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE LOWLANDS AROUND SEATTLE...SO IT APPEARS UNLIKELY
THAT OUR VALLEYS WILL SEE SNOW FROM THE INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE PAC NW SATURDAY...CAUSING A RESURGENCE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S WET SNOWFLAKES WILL
BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS...HOWEVER STICKING SNOW SHOULD
BE RELEGATED TO THE HILLS. THE WEST HILLS OF PORTLAND AND THE
CASCADE/COAST RANGE FOOTHILLS SURROUNDING THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY COULD
SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION...BUT IT SHOULD MAINLY BE ON
GRASSY SURFACES DUE TO OUR RECENT WARM SPELL. ABOVE 1000-1500 FT IS
WHERE SNOW MAY START TO STICK ON THE ROADS AND PRESENT TRAVEL
ISSUES...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SUN BREAKS BETWEEN THE SHOWERS TO
MITIGATE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE CASCADES... EASTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RAMP UP THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE. STRONG
AND CHILLY EAST WINDS WILL RESULT...AND THE COLD POOL AGAIN APPEARS
DEEP ENOUGH FOR THE EAST WINDS TO AFFECT THE WHOLE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO AREA. WITH THE 12Z 4KM UW WRFGFS KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
APPROACHING -9 TO -10 MB AND KOTH-KGEG PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPROACHING
-17 TO -19 MB...THIS EAST WIND EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS OUR BIG EAST WIND EVENT EARLIER THIS MONTH BUT IT WILL
STILL BE FORMIDABLE. EXPECT EAST WIND GUSTS 60-70 MPH IN THE WEST END
OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND GUSTS 40-50 MPH IN THE GREATER
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA. THIS WOULD WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH MAY BE ISSUED BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO PROJECT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE.

THE STRONG EAST WINDS WILL DRY OUT OUR AIR MASS SUNDAY...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING MOST AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE MORE
OR LESS IN CONSENSUS NOW THAT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE
COMBINATION OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AND OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION...
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN VALLEYS. THE
GREATEST THREAT IS IN AND NEAR THE GORGE WHERE COLD AIR WILL BE MOST
STUBBORN. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS
EVENT WILL PLAY OUT...BUT FOR NOW WE INCREASED POPS...FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES...AND POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS MONDAY. KEPT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS FAIRLY MINIMAL AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...THOUGH IF CURRENT MODELS ARE TO BE BELIEVED THERE COULD
BE MORE SIGNIFICANT ICING THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT HAVING THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFT A WARM
FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
12Z MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF DUMPED OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREVAILING EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...AND AS THE PRECIP LIFTS NORTH-
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
OVER THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND THE GORGE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MODELS DRAG THE PARENT LOW FURTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE TUESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
STARTING WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. STILL LOW
CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE OVERALL TRACK OF THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM. IT
COULD EITHER PUSH ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MAINTAIN
SEASONABLY WET CONDITIONS AS THE 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS...OR THE LOW
COULD PUSH INLAND OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP
STAYING SOUTH OF OUR AREA AS THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS. WENT MORE TOWARDS
CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. /27

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR THIS
AFTERNOON. AT 2 PM...COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST N OF KTMK TO
KKLS TO MT RAINIER. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH S ACROSS NW OREGON THIS
EVENING. ONCE FRONT PUSHES S...AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND LOW VFR THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SAT AM. EXPECT
HIGHER TERRAIN TO BE OBSCURED IN PRECIP AND CLOUD THROUGH SAT AM.
COLD AIR SPREADING INTO REGION LATER TONIGHT...WITH MIX OF SNOW
AND RAIN DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS EARLY SAT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM N TO S SAT AFTERNOON AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...BREEZY AND RAINY WITH MVFR INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OPS AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z.
WINDS WILL TURN W OR NW...WITH RAIN DECREASING AFTER 04Z. WILL
SEE LOW VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AND SHOWERS INTO SAT AM. WILL SEE
SNOW IN SHOWERS AFTER 12Z...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS
GROUND REMAINS TOO WARM. DRYING AND VFR AFTER 20Z SAT. ROCKEY.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY S WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTS 25 TO
30 KT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SHORE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AT 2 AM FRI...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS JUST N
TILLAMOOK...AND WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AND REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SAT AM.

SEAS RUNNING 11 TO 14 FT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SAT. HOWEVER...LIKELY TO HOLD CLOSE TO 10 FT
ON THE WATERS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

WINDS EASE LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH GRADIENTS BECOMING
OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER PAC NW. LIKELY
SEE GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT IN THE COASTAL GAPS ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SAT AM.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
      SAT AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR TONIGHT
      THROUGH SAT AM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 282209
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
309 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PAC NW WILL UNDERGO A
PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT DROP IN FROM CANADA. A WEAK BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING UPPER RIDGE
WILL WORK THROUGH SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THIS EVENING. BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
5-6K FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHER PEAKS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES
/INCLUDING THE BANNER SUMMIT AREA ALONG HIGHWAY 21/ COULD SEE UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS
AROUND 5K FEET WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW WITH ELEVATIONS
BELOW 5K FEET SEEING MOSTLY RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. WITH A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION DON/T EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER
VALLEYS IN TIME FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SUNDAY IS COLD AND DRY AS
THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ANOTHER 15-20 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM FRONTAL OVERRUNNING
WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A CUTOFF LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST PUSHES MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
FROM THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START OFF AS
SNOW AT ALL LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN THE LOWER VALLEYS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THESE SITUATIONS AS
THE COLD AIR TENDS TO TAKE LONGER TO ERODE IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST SLOWLY MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. AS THE LOW WEAKENS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS ZONAL KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN GOING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID CLOUD DECKS. MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF KBNO-KONO-KBOI-KSUN LINE OBSCURED WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000FT IN
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND 9000FT ALONG NV BORDER. SURFACE
WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5-10KT IN TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST 15-25 WITH
GUSTS TO 40KT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON NEAR KREO DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET...SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20KT IN BAKER VALLEY AND NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET
MSL...WESTERLY 40-55KT.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO VALLEY
FLOORS. &&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 282209
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
309 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PAC NW WILL UNDERGO A
PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT DROP IN FROM CANADA. A WEAK BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING UPPER RIDGE
WILL WORK THROUGH SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THIS EVENING. BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
5-6K FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHER PEAKS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES
/INCLUDING THE BANNER SUMMIT AREA ALONG HIGHWAY 21/ COULD SEE UP
TO A FOOT OF SNOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS
AROUND 5K FEET WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW WITH ELEVATIONS
BELOW 5K FEET SEEING MOSTLY RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. WITH A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION DON/T EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER
VALLEYS IN TIME FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SUNDAY IS COLD AND DRY AS
THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ANOTHER 15-20 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM FRONTAL OVERRUNNING
WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A CUTOFF LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST PUSHES MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
FROM THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START OFF AS
SNOW AT ALL LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN THE LOWER VALLEYS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THESE SITUATIONS AS
THE COLD AIR TENDS TO TAKE LONGER TO ERODE IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST SLOWLY MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. AS THE LOW WEAKENS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS ZONAL KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN GOING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID CLOUD DECKS. MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF KBNO-KONO-KBOI-KSUN LINE OBSCURED WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000FT IN
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND 9000FT ALONG NV BORDER. SURFACE
WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5-10KT IN TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST 15-25 WITH
GUSTS TO 40KT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON NEAR KREO DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET...SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20KT IN BAKER VALLEY AND NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET
MSL...WESTERLY 40-55KT.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO VALLEY
FLOORS. &&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS66 KPQR 281819
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1018 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS PRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS COLD FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY LOWERING BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER CASCADE
PASSES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN
EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT AND SAT AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH...WITH PERHAPS A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IN THE
HIGHER HILLS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
GORGE AND ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH MAY ATTEMPT TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR ON
MON...BUT FCST DETAILS DURING THIS TIME REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE...AS IT LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE DESPITE A FAIRLY COMPLEX
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE CLOUDS OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS
MORNING...AND INDEED THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES
PRODUCED BY THESE CLOUDS. THIS DUE TO WEAK/MOIST INSTABILITY SEEING
ITS POTENTIAL DUE TO INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT.

MEANWHILE AN UNUSUALLY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT BY WEST COAST
STANDARDS IS PRESSING SE THROUGH WASHINGTON. THE FRONT BROUGHT A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO HOQUIAM...WITH OVER ONE HALF INCH IN AN HOUR
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST REACHING A
PORTLAND-NEWPORT LINE BY AROUND 3-4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH
EUGENE AROUND 10-11 PM THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER VERY
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 4000-5000 FT DOWN TO 1500 FT OR LOWER
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THERE
COULD BE SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOOR BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE JUST BARELY TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO STICK BELOW 500-1000
FEET IN ELEVATION. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MORE
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THE WEST HILLS OF PORTLAND AND CASCADE/COAST
RANGE FOOTHILLS SURROUNDING THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY COULD SEE AN INCH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION...BUT IT SHOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES
DUE TO OUR RECENT WARM SPELL. ABOVE 1000-1500 FT IS WHERE SNOW MAY
START TO STICK ON THE ROADS AND PRESENT TRAVEL ISSUES...THOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME SUN BREAKS BETWEEN THE SHOWERS TO MITIGATE THIS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT ONWARD YET...THOUGH MODELS ARE
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD BRINGING MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS COULD PROVIDE AN INTERESTING FORECAST
CHALLENGE MONDAY MORNING AS THE REGION REMAINS COLD FROM OUR WEEKEND
COLD SNAP. MORE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.  WEAGLE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON IS BEING REACTIVATED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NE PAC. AS A RESULT...RAIN IS FILLING BACK
IN ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. EXPECT A MILD AND
WET DAY AHEAD...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE STEADY RAIN FALLING FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE 6000 FT.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BE DRIVEN INTO WA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT BY A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALONG WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE SHARP BY PAC NW STANDARDS...WITH THE FCST
MODELS SHOWING ABOUT AN 8 DEG CELSIUS DROP OVER A 6 HR PERIOD AT 850
MB WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS ALL RAIN
BELOW 6000 FT...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE FRONT.X1AEXPECT A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATION SNOW FOR THE
HIGHER CASCADE PASSES WITH THE FRONT. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT MAY MAKE TRAVEL OVER THE PASSES
TREACHEROUS FOR A TIME TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE -6C TO -8 RANGE...WHICH WILL OFTEN SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR. QPF AMOUNTS ON SAT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THERE
WILL BE ANY MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR...OR ALONG THE S WA OR N
OR COAST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANT SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WE WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A
DRY...COLD...AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
PRES MOVES INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. HIGH
RESOLUTION FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL GET TO -10 MB OR POSSIBLY STRONGER. THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR EAST WINDS GUSTING 60-70 MPH THROUGH THE GORGE...AND 40-45
MPH GUSTS IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS
TREND...A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S IN AND NEAR THE GORGE AND 40S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE.  PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FCST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES CONSIDERABLY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CLOSED LOW PRES
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR SW ON SUN AND SUN
NIGHT. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS MODEL HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE
LOW WOULD PUSH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD SOME MOISTURE AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONSHORE BEGINNING MON MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BEEN TENDING TO KEEP THE LOW FURTHER
OFFSHORE...WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER REMAINING IN CONTROL OVER THE PAC
NW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
00Z NAM AS WELL NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION...BRINGING SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH ON MON. AN
EASTERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THROUGH THE GORGE...SO ANY PRECIP THAT
DOES FALL COULD BRING FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE GORGE...AND
ALSO POTENTIALLY INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
FCST MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO PUSH THROUGH LATER MON NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND BRING THE
TRANSITION TO A MILDER AIR MASS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS ARE VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND POCKETS OF IFR CIGS ACROSS REGION
THIS AM. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TODAY AS COLD FRONT OVER W WASHINGTON
PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. EXPECT HIGHER TERRAIN TO BE OBSCURED IN
RAIN AND CLOUDS. ONCE FRONT PUSHES S...AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND LOW VFR THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIKELY TO SEE MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT.
BUT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO REGION...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
QUICKLY...AND WILL BE 500 TO 1000 FT BY 15Z SAT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TODAY...WITH RAIN AND
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THIS AM ALOFT WILL
EASE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND MVFR WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF LOW
VFR AND MVFR TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS DROP HARD
TONIGHT...SO WILL SEE SNOW IN THE SHOWERS AFTER 12Z. BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS GROUND WILL BE TOO WARM.     ROCKEY.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY S WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SHORE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT 8 AM
FRI...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS JUST N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER...AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD TODAY. WINDS WILL TURN NW AND
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SAT AM.

SEAS RUNNING 11 TO 13 FT TODAY...AND WILL DROP OFF A BIT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LIKELY TO HOLD CLOSE TO 10 FT ON THE WATERS THROUGH SAT.

WINDS EASE LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH GRADIENTS BECOMING
OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER PAC NW. LIKELY
SEE GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT IN THE COASTAL GAPS ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SAT AM.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL WATERS
  THROUGH SAT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
  UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 281819
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1018 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS PRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS COLD FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY LOWERING BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER CASCADE
PASSES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN
EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT AND SAT AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH...WITH PERHAPS A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IN THE
HIGHER HILLS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
GORGE AND ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH MAY ATTEMPT TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR ON
MON...BUT FCST DETAILS DURING THIS TIME REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE...AS IT LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE DESPITE A FAIRLY COMPLEX
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE CLOUDS OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS
MORNING...AND INDEED THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES
PRODUCED BY THESE CLOUDS. THIS DUE TO WEAK/MOIST INSTABILITY SEEING
ITS POTENTIAL DUE TO INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT.

MEANWHILE AN UNUSUALLY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT BY WEST COAST
STANDARDS IS PRESSING SE THROUGH WASHINGTON. THE FRONT BROUGHT A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO HOQUIAM...WITH OVER ONE HALF INCH IN AN HOUR
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST REACHING A
PORTLAND-NEWPORT LINE BY AROUND 3-4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH
EUGENE AROUND 10-11 PM THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER VERY
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 4000-5000 FT DOWN TO 1500 FT OR LOWER
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...THERE
COULD BE SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOOR BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE JUST BARELY TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO STICK BELOW 500-1000
FEET IN ELEVATION. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MORE
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THE WEST HILLS OF PORTLAND AND CASCADE/COAST
RANGE FOOTHILLS SURROUNDING THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY COULD SEE AN INCH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION...BUT IT SHOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES
DUE TO OUR RECENT WARM SPELL. ABOVE 1000-1500 FT IS WHERE SNOW MAY
START TO STICK ON THE ROADS AND PRESENT TRAVEL ISSUES...THOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME SUN BREAKS BETWEEN THE SHOWERS TO MITIGATE THIS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT ONWARD YET...THOUGH MODELS ARE
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD BRINGING MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION MONDAY. THIS COULD PROVIDE AN INTERESTING FORECAST
CHALLENGE MONDAY MORNING AS THE REGION REMAINS COLD FROM OUR WEEKEND
COLD SNAP. MORE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.  WEAGLE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON IS BEING REACTIVATED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NE PAC. AS A RESULT...RAIN IS FILLING BACK
IN ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. EXPECT A MILD AND
WET DAY AHEAD...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE STEADY RAIN FALLING FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE 6000 FT.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BE DRIVEN INTO WA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT BY A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALONG WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE SHARP BY PAC NW STANDARDS...WITH THE FCST
MODELS SHOWING ABOUT AN 8 DEG CELSIUS DROP OVER A 6 HR PERIOD AT 850
MB WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS ALL RAIN
BELOW 6000 FT...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE FRONT.X1AEXPECT A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATION SNOW FOR THE
HIGHER CASCADE PASSES WITH THE FRONT. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT MAY MAKE TRAVEL OVER THE PASSES
TREACHEROUS FOR A TIME TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE -6C TO -8 RANGE...WHICH WILL OFTEN SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR. QPF AMOUNTS ON SAT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THERE
WILL BE ANY MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR...OR ALONG THE S WA OR N
OR COAST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANT SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WE WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A
DRY...COLD...AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
PRES MOVES INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. HIGH
RESOLUTION FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL GET TO -10 MB OR POSSIBLY STRONGER. THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR EAST WINDS GUSTING 60-70 MPH THROUGH THE GORGE...AND 40-45
MPH GUSTS IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS
TREND...A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S IN AND NEAR THE GORGE AND 40S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE.  PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FCST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES CONSIDERABLY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CLOSED LOW PRES
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR SW ON SUN AND SUN
NIGHT. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS MODEL HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE
LOW WOULD PUSH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD SOME MOISTURE AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONSHORE BEGINNING MON MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BEEN TENDING TO KEEP THE LOW FURTHER
OFFSHORE...WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER REMAINING IN CONTROL OVER THE PAC
NW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
00Z NAM AS WELL NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION...BRINGING SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH ON MON. AN
EASTERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THROUGH THE GORGE...SO ANY PRECIP THAT
DOES FALL COULD BRING FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE GORGE...AND
ALSO POTENTIALLY INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
FCST MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO PUSH THROUGH LATER MON NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND BRING THE
TRANSITION TO A MILDER AIR MASS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS ARE VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND POCKETS OF IFR CIGS ACROSS REGION
THIS AM. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TODAY AS COLD FRONT OVER W WASHINGTON
PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. EXPECT HIGHER TERRAIN TO BE OBSCURED IN
RAIN AND CLOUDS. ONCE FRONT PUSHES S...AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND LOW VFR THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIKELY TO SEE MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT.
BUT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO REGION...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
QUICKLY...AND WILL BE 500 TO 1000 FT BY 15Z SAT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TODAY...WITH RAIN AND
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THIS AM ALOFT WILL
EASE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND MVFR WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF LOW
VFR AND MVFR TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS DROP HARD
TONIGHT...SO WILL SEE SNOW IN THE SHOWERS AFTER 12Z. BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS GROUND WILL BE TOO WARM.     ROCKEY.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY S WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SHORE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT 8 AM
FRI...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS JUST N OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER...AND
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD TODAY. WINDS WILL TURN NW AND
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SAT AM.

SEAS RUNNING 11 TO 13 FT TODAY...AND WILL DROP OFF A BIT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LIKELY TO HOLD CLOSE TO 10 FT ON THE WATERS THROUGH SAT.

WINDS EASE LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH GRADIENTS BECOMING
OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER PAC NW. LIKELY
SEE GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT IN THE COASTAL GAPS ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SAT AM.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL WATERS
  THROUGH SAT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
  UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPDT 281745
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
945 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN,
YAKIMA VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON ARE TIGHTENING DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN B.C.. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL
MONITOR AND ISSUE WIND HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED. SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE EVENING. UPDATES
FOCUSED ON NUDGING WINDS UP A BIT MORE IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS,
AND MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SNOW LEVELS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS THE TIMING. HAVE
CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE EUROPEAN WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM CENTRAL OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE REST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN LOW WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING SNOW. THE NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS.
THIS COULD LEAD TO SNOW TRANSITIONING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AS
THE WARM AIR MOVES ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SOME RAIN SHADOWING EAST OF THE CASCADES FOR
KYKM AND KPSC. WINDS 20-30 KTS WILL BE SEEN AT MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDLS WHICH WILL BE 15-25
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  35  35  14 /  60  80  50  20
ALW  63  37  37  16 /  70  80  50  20
PSC  63  35  37  17 /  30  50  20  10
YKM  58  32  32  12 /  30  30  20   0
HRI  61  36  37  15 /  30  60  20  10
ELN  52  28  28  12 /  40  40  20   0
RDM  56  34  34   8 /  50  70  50  20
LGD  55  38  39  12 /  70  80  70  30
GCD  54  35  35  11 /  60  60  70  30
DLS  57  36  37  23 /  60  70  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/84/93







000
FXUS66 KPDT 281745
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
945 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN,
YAKIMA VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON ARE TIGHTENING DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN B.C.. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL
MONITOR AND ISSUE WIND HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED. SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE EVENING. UPDATES
FOCUSED ON NUDGING WINDS UP A BIT MORE IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS,
AND MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SNOW LEVELS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS THE TIMING. HAVE
CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE EUROPEAN WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM CENTRAL OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE REST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN LOW WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING SNOW. THE NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS.
THIS COULD LEAD TO SNOW TRANSITIONING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AS
THE WARM AIR MOVES ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SOME RAIN SHADOWING EAST OF THE CASCADES FOR
KYKM AND KPSC. WINDS 20-30 KTS WILL BE SEEN AT MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDLS WHICH WILL BE 15-25
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  35  35  14 /  60  80  50  20
ALW  63  37  37  16 /  70  80  50  20
PSC  63  35  37  17 /  30  50  20  10
YKM  58  32  32  12 /  30  30  20   0
HRI  61  36  37  15 /  30  60  20  10
ELN  52  28  28  12 /  40  40  20   0
RDM  56  34  34   8 /  50  70  50  20
LGD  55  38  39  12 /  70  80  70  30
GCD  54  35  35  11 /  60  60  70  30
DLS  57  36  37  23 /  60  70  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/84/93








000
FXUS65 KBOI 281658
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WEST-
CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BOISE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP GENERATION IS
MOSTLY OROGRAPHIC SO OUTSIDE OF SOME SPRINKLES...VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND TO DECREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. SEEING GUSTY
WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE BAKER AND LONG VALLEYS AND WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN
GUSTY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. THUS HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS IN
THESE AREAS AND ACROSS SE OREGON WHERE AFTERNOON MIXING WILL RAMP
UP WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID CLOUD DECKS. EXCEPT IFR
FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NEAR KONO. MOUNTAINS NORTH OF KBNO-KONO-
KBOI-KSUN LINE OBSCURED WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000FT IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND 8000FT ALONG NV BORDER. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 12KT OR LESS
IN TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST 15-25 WITH GUSTS TO 40KT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON NEAR KREO. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20KT IN BAKER
VALLEY AND NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 40-55KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING TODAY...BUT PLACE LIKE MCCALL...
WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING...WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN
MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH...AS SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SATURDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL ENTER BAKER COUNTY IN THE
MORNING...REACH THE BOISE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND GET TO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...BUT FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF THE NOTABLE PRECIP. THROUGHOUT
THESE FIRST TWO DAYS...PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVY.
LOCATIONS ABOVE AROUND 7000 FEET COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW.
PLACES LIKE MCCALL...AT 5000 FEET...WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ROAD TEMPS WILL PREVENT
THE SNOW FROM CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE POPULATED
AREAS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IF YOU PLAN
ON TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER PASSES...BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY SNOW
AND SNOW-PACKED ROADS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND PRECIP
WILL DECREASE. ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS...
AND THESE WILL BE FOUND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS THAT WILL BE
GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. 00Z GFS/06Z NAM HAVE THE FASTEST TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...REACHING MCCALL/BAKER CITY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR WILL
MIX OUT OF MOST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE CA COAST AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING PACIFIC
MOISTURE SO HAVE LEFT POPS HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY.
THE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC LOW OFF THE CA
COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY LEAVING MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
REMAIN ABOVE OR NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281658
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WEST-
CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BOISE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP GENERATION IS
MOSTLY OROGRAPHIC SO OUTSIDE OF SOME SPRINKLES...VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND TO DECREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. SEEING GUSTY
WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE BAKER AND LONG VALLEYS AND WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN
GUSTY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. THUS HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS IN
THESE AREAS AND ACROSS SE OREGON WHERE AFTERNOON MIXING WILL RAMP
UP WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID CLOUD DECKS. EXCEPT IFR
FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NEAR KONO. MOUNTAINS NORTH OF KBNO-KONO-
KBOI-KSUN LINE OBSCURED WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000FT IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND 8000FT ALONG NV BORDER. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 12KT OR LESS
IN TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST 15-25 WITH GUSTS TO 40KT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON NEAR KREO. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20KT IN BAKER
VALLEY AND NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 40-55KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING TODAY...BUT PLACE LIKE MCCALL...
WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING...WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN
MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH...AS SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SATURDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL ENTER BAKER COUNTY IN THE
MORNING...REACH THE BOISE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND GET TO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...BUT FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF THE NOTABLE PRECIP. THROUGHOUT
THESE FIRST TWO DAYS...PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVY.
LOCATIONS ABOVE AROUND 7000 FEET COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW.
PLACES LIKE MCCALL...AT 5000 FEET...WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ROAD TEMPS WILL PREVENT
THE SNOW FROM CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE POPULATED
AREAS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IF YOU PLAN
ON TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER PASSES...BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY SNOW
AND SNOW-PACKED ROADS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND PRECIP
WILL DECREASE. ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS...
AND THESE WILL BE FOUND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS THAT WILL BE
GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. 00Z GFS/06Z NAM HAVE THE FASTEST TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...REACHING MCCALL/BAKER CITY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR WILL
MIX OUT OF MOST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE CA COAST AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING PACIFIC
MOISTURE SO HAVE LEFT POPS HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY.
THE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC LOW OFF THE CA
COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY LEAVING MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
REMAIN ABOVE OR NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281658
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WEST-
CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BOISE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP GENERATION IS
MOSTLY OROGRAPHIC SO OUTSIDE OF SOME SPRINKLES...VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND TO DECREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. SEEING GUSTY
WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE BAKER AND LONG VALLEYS AND WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN
GUSTY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. THUS HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS IN
THESE AREAS AND ACROSS SE OREGON WHERE AFTERNOON MIXING WILL RAMP
UP WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID CLOUD DECKS. EXCEPT IFR
FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NEAR KONO. MOUNTAINS NORTH OF KBNO-KONO-
KBOI-KSUN LINE OBSCURED WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000FT IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND 8000FT ALONG NV BORDER. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 12KT OR LESS
IN TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST 15-25 WITH GUSTS TO 40KT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON NEAR KREO. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20KT IN BAKER
VALLEY AND NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 40-55KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING TODAY...BUT PLACE LIKE MCCALL...
WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING...WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN
MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH...AS SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SATURDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL ENTER BAKER COUNTY IN THE
MORNING...REACH THE BOISE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND GET TO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...BUT FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF THE NOTABLE PRECIP. THROUGHOUT
THESE FIRST TWO DAYS...PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVY.
LOCATIONS ABOVE AROUND 7000 FEET COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW.
PLACES LIKE MCCALL...AT 5000 FEET...WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ROAD TEMPS WILL PREVENT
THE SNOW FROM CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE POPULATED
AREAS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IF YOU PLAN
ON TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER PASSES...BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY SNOW
AND SNOW-PACKED ROADS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND PRECIP
WILL DECREASE. ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS...
AND THESE WILL BE FOUND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS THAT WILL BE
GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. 00Z GFS/06Z NAM HAVE THE FASTEST TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...REACHING MCCALL/BAKER CITY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR WILL
MIX OUT OF MOST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE CA COAST AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING PACIFIC
MOISTURE SO HAVE LEFT POPS HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY.
THE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC LOW OFF THE CA
COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY LEAVING MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
REMAIN ABOVE OR NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281658
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WEST-
CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BOISE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP GENERATION IS
MOSTLY OROGRAPHIC SO OUTSIDE OF SOME SPRINKLES...VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND TO DECREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. SEEING GUSTY
WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE BAKER AND LONG VALLEYS AND WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN
GUSTY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. THUS HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS IN
THESE AREAS AND ACROSS SE OREGON WHERE AFTERNOON MIXING WILL RAMP
UP WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID CLOUD DECKS. EXCEPT IFR
FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NEAR KONO. MOUNTAINS NORTH OF KBNO-KONO-
KBOI-KSUN LINE OBSCURED WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000FT IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND 8000FT ALONG NV BORDER. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 12KT OR LESS
IN TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST 15-25 WITH GUSTS TO 40KT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON NEAR KREO. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20KT IN BAKER
VALLEY AND NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 40-55KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING TODAY...BUT PLACE LIKE MCCALL...
WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING...WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN
MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH...AS SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SATURDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL ENTER BAKER COUNTY IN THE
MORNING...REACH THE BOISE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND GET TO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...BUT FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF THE NOTABLE PRECIP. THROUGHOUT
THESE FIRST TWO DAYS...PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVY.
LOCATIONS ABOVE AROUND 7000 FEET COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW.
PLACES LIKE MCCALL...AT 5000 FEET...WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ROAD TEMPS WILL PREVENT
THE SNOW FROM CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE POPULATED
AREAS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IF YOU PLAN
ON TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER PASSES...BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY SNOW
AND SNOW-PACKED ROADS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND PRECIP
WILL DECREASE. ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS...
AND THESE WILL BE FOUND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS THAT WILL BE
GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. 00Z GFS/06Z NAM HAVE THE FASTEST TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...REACHING MCCALL/BAKER CITY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR WILL
MIX OUT OF MOST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE CA COAST AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING PACIFIC
MOISTURE SO HAVE LEFT POPS HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY.
THE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC LOW OFF THE CA
COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY LEAVING MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
REMAIN ABOVE OR NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS



  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 281657
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
843 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE. THE BAND OF PRECIP THAT LINGERED OVER
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE IS FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY INLAND THIS MORNING AS
THE JET AXIS SHIFTS EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS AND EVERYTHING
LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS (SUNDAY EVENING). A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT BROUGHT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA ON
THANKSGIVING DAY REMAINS OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT
BROUGHT RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES IN A WIDE AREA FROM ABOUT GOLD
BEACH NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THERE WASN`T MUCH
RAIN SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE YESTERDAY, BUT THIS IS ABOUT TO
CHANGE.

THE FRONT WILL GET A PUSH INLAND TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
AND FAR EAST SIDE AREAS MAY NOT END UP WITH MUCH AT ALL. 700 MB
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ARE 45-55 KT AND AS A RESULT...A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES. SEE NPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS. SNOW LEVELS TODAY WILL BE
MOSTLY ABOVE 6000 FEET.

A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT THEN INTO WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL ENERGIZE A SECOND FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE AN
INTERESTING FRONT IN MANY WAYS.

FIRST, THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING AT THE COAST THIS EVENING, THEN SPREADING
INLAND TO THE CASCADES SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...1-3 INCHES ALONG THE COAST, THE UMPQUA
VALLEY AND INTO THE CASCADES/FOOTHILLS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OF CURRY COUNTY (RED MOUND
AND QUAIL PRAIRIE). RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AMOUNT THERE
IS 0.50-1.00 WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR GRANTS PASS AND LOWEST
DOWN NEAR ASHLAND.

SECOND, THERE IS A VERY COLD AIR MASS WITH ORIGINS IN WESTERN
CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT WILL DEAL AT LEAST A GLANCING BLOW
TO OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
REACHING DOWN TO THE MAJOR PASSES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THERE WILL
BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 IN THE CASCADES
DURING THIS TIME, BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE SNOW. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHEN SNOW LEVELS ARE HIGHER SUCH THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE SNOW AT THE MAJOR PASSES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT NEAR
3500 FEET AROUND MOUNT SHASTA CITY SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD DRY
OUT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IF SKIES CLEAR
ENOUGH, IT WILL GET VERY COLD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES AND THERE MAY BE A FROST/FREEZE
SUNDAY MORNING IN PORTIONS OF COOS COUNTY.

THIRD, THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY THEN
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH. THE GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER AMONG THE GUIDANCE, SO HAVE
PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. THERE STILL MAY
BE ENOUGH COLD AIR AROUND FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CASCADES
AND THE EAST SIDE, BUT SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE SUFFICIENTLY FOR
JUST RAIN OVER THE WEST SIDE. SPILDE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM MODELS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN, AND THE
SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
BEYOND SUNDAY. MUCH OF THIS STEMS FROM THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS ARE
HAVING WITH THE CLOSED LOW WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THE BEHAVIOR
OF A FEATURE LIKE THIS IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN, SO
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT AN
UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IN THE MT SHASTA AREA, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
AGAIN PUSHED BACK THE EVENT BY 12 TO 24 HOURS, BUT HAVE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE LOW AND CHANGED THE PROJECTED COURSE.
TAKING THE TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT, IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW EVENT IS
BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.  THEREFORE, HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF A
HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FROM THE FORECAST.  INSTEAD, IT APPEARS THE
FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE TYPICAL TYPE OF SYSTEM, WITH THE
CLOSED LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST, AND PUSHING
ONSHORE AS AN OPEN TROUGH.

THEREFORE, THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
INFLOW STILL APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO
REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF POPS TO FIT THE NEW FORECAST TRENDS, AND CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.

ONE TOPIC THAT STILL BEARS WATCHING WILL BE THE EAST SIDE AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF COLD AIR BECOMING TRAPPED WITHIN THE VALLEYS AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ICE BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SHOW A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR THIS, BUT IT HAS BEEN AN
ACCOMPANYING FEATURE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR SEVERAL CYCLES. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, AS UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH, BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL SHIFTS.
-BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/06Z TAF CYCLE...A STATIONARY FRONT  IS
BRINGING  WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG  AND NORTH OF A
THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN CURRY COAST NE INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY...AND
EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THIS LINE EXPECT VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN DURING
THE DAY THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL, MAINLY FROM
THE CASCADES WEST, AS THIS FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN  FRIDAY
EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAINFALL TO THE COAST AND
DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
RETURNING TO THOSE AREAS. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014...THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE. SOUTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT WITH HIGH END
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND GALE GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS WILL BECOME CHAOTIC BUILDING TO A VERY STEEP TO STEEP 10 TO 15
FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER PORTION
OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH A LONG NORTHERLY FETCH, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
WAVES AT 8 SECONDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX WITH A DOMINANT FRESH SWELL AT
10 SECONDS WHILE SMALLER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL TRAINS
PERSIST. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM
   PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ356-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
 EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ350-370.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
 FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/CC/SBN/BPN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 281657
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
843 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE. THE BAND OF PRECIP THAT LINGERED OVER
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE IS FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY INLAND THIS MORNING AS
THE JET AXIS SHIFTS EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS AND EVERYTHING
LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS (SUNDAY EVENING). A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT BROUGHT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA ON
THANKSGIVING DAY REMAINS OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT
BROUGHT RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES IN A WIDE AREA FROM ABOUT GOLD
BEACH NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THERE WASN`T MUCH
RAIN SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE YESTERDAY, BUT THIS IS ABOUT TO
CHANGE.

THE FRONT WILL GET A PUSH INLAND TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
AND FAR EAST SIDE AREAS MAY NOT END UP WITH MUCH AT ALL. 700 MB
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ARE 45-55 KT AND AS A RESULT...A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES. SEE NPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS. SNOW LEVELS TODAY WILL BE
MOSTLY ABOVE 6000 FEET.

A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT THEN INTO WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL ENERGIZE A SECOND FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE AN
INTERESTING FRONT IN MANY WAYS.

FIRST, THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING AT THE COAST THIS EVENING, THEN SPREADING
INLAND TO THE CASCADES SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...1-3 INCHES ALONG THE COAST, THE UMPQUA
VALLEY AND INTO THE CASCADES/FOOTHILLS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OF CURRY COUNTY (RED MOUND
AND QUAIL PRAIRIE). RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AMOUNT THERE
IS 0.50-1.00 WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR GRANTS PASS AND LOWEST
DOWN NEAR ASHLAND.

SECOND, THERE IS A VERY COLD AIR MASS WITH ORIGINS IN WESTERN
CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT WILL DEAL AT LEAST A GLANCING BLOW
TO OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
REACHING DOWN TO THE MAJOR PASSES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THERE WILL
BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 IN THE CASCADES
DURING THIS TIME, BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE SNOW. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHEN SNOW LEVELS ARE HIGHER SUCH THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE SNOW AT THE MAJOR PASSES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT NEAR
3500 FEET AROUND MOUNT SHASTA CITY SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD DRY
OUT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IF SKIES CLEAR
ENOUGH, IT WILL GET VERY COLD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES AND THERE MAY BE A FROST/FREEZE
SUNDAY MORNING IN PORTIONS OF COOS COUNTY.

THIRD, THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY THEN
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH. THE GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER AMONG THE GUIDANCE, SO HAVE
PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. THERE STILL MAY
BE ENOUGH COLD AIR AROUND FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CASCADES
AND THE EAST SIDE, BUT SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE SUFFICIENTLY FOR
JUST RAIN OVER THE WEST SIDE. SPILDE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM MODELS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN, AND THE
SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
BEYOND SUNDAY. MUCH OF THIS STEMS FROM THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS ARE
HAVING WITH THE CLOSED LOW WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THE BEHAVIOR
OF A FEATURE LIKE THIS IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN, SO
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT AN
UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IN THE MT SHASTA AREA, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
AGAIN PUSHED BACK THE EVENT BY 12 TO 24 HOURS, BUT HAVE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE LOW AND CHANGED THE PROJECTED COURSE.
TAKING THE TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT, IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW EVENT IS
BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.  THEREFORE, HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF A
HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FROM THE FORECAST.  INSTEAD, IT APPEARS THE
FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE TYPICAL TYPE OF SYSTEM, WITH THE
CLOSED LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST, AND PUSHING
ONSHORE AS AN OPEN TROUGH.

THEREFORE, THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
INFLOW STILL APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO
REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF POPS TO FIT THE NEW FORECAST TRENDS, AND CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.

ONE TOPIC THAT STILL BEARS WATCHING WILL BE THE EAST SIDE AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF COLD AIR BECOMING TRAPPED WITHIN THE VALLEYS AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ICE BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SHOW A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR THIS, BUT IT HAS BEEN AN
ACCOMPANYING FEATURE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR SEVERAL CYCLES. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, AS UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH, BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL SHIFTS.
-BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/06Z TAF CYCLE...A STATIONARY FRONT  IS
BRINGING  WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG  AND NORTH OF A
THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN CURRY COAST NE INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY...AND
EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THIS LINE EXPECT VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN DURING
THE DAY THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL, MAINLY FROM
THE CASCADES WEST, AS THIS FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN  FRIDAY
EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAINFALL TO THE COAST AND
DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
RETURNING TO THOSE AREAS. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014...THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE. SOUTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT WITH HIGH END
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND GALE GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS WILL BECOME CHAOTIC BUILDING TO A VERY STEEP TO STEEP 10 TO 15
FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER PORTION
OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH A LONG NORTHERLY FETCH, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
WAVES AT 8 SECONDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX WITH A DOMINANT FRESH SWELL AT
10 SECONDS WHILE SMALLER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL TRAINS
PERSIST. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM
   PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ356-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
 EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ350-370.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
 FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/CC/SBN/BPN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 281657
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
843 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE. THE BAND OF PRECIP THAT LINGERED OVER
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE IS FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY INLAND THIS MORNING AS
THE JET AXIS SHIFTS EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS AND EVERYTHING
LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS (SUNDAY EVENING). A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT BROUGHT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA ON
THANKSGIVING DAY REMAINS OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT
BROUGHT RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES IN A WIDE AREA FROM ABOUT GOLD
BEACH NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THERE WASN`T MUCH
RAIN SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE YESTERDAY, BUT THIS IS ABOUT TO
CHANGE.

THE FRONT WILL GET A PUSH INLAND TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
AND FAR EAST SIDE AREAS MAY NOT END UP WITH MUCH AT ALL. 700 MB
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ARE 45-55 KT AND AS A RESULT...A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES. SEE NPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS. SNOW LEVELS TODAY WILL BE
MOSTLY ABOVE 6000 FEET.

A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT THEN INTO WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL ENERGIZE A SECOND FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE AN
INTERESTING FRONT IN MANY WAYS.

FIRST, THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING AT THE COAST THIS EVENING, THEN SPREADING
INLAND TO THE CASCADES SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...1-3 INCHES ALONG THE COAST, THE UMPQUA
VALLEY AND INTO THE CASCADES/FOOTHILLS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OF CURRY COUNTY (RED MOUND
AND QUAIL PRAIRIE). RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AMOUNT THERE
IS 0.50-1.00 WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR GRANTS PASS AND LOWEST
DOWN NEAR ASHLAND.

SECOND, THERE IS A VERY COLD AIR MASS WITH ORIGINS IN WESTERN
CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT WILL DEAL AT LEAST A GLANCING BLOW
TO OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
REACHING DOWN TO THE MAJOR PASSES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THERE WILL
BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 IN THE CASCADES
DURING THIS TIME, BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE SNOW. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHEN SNOW LEVELS ARE HIGHER SUCH THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE SNOW AT THE MAJOR PASSES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT NEAR
3500 FEET AROUND MOUNT SHASTA CITY SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD DRY
OUT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IF SKIES CLEAR
ENOUGH, IT WILL GET VERY COLD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES AND THERE MAY BE A FROST/FREEZE
SUNDAY MORNING IN PORTIONS OF COOS COUNTY.

THIRD, THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY THEN
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH. THE GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER AMONG THE GUIDANCE, SO HAVE
PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. THERE STILL MAY
BE ENOUGH COLD AIR AROUND FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CASCADES
AND THE EAST SIDE, BUT SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE SUFFICIENTLY FOR
JUST RAIN OVER THE WEST SIDE. SPILDE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM MODELS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN, AND THE
SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
BEYOND SUNDAY. MUCH OF THIS STEMS FROM THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS ARE
HAVING WITH THE CLOSED LOW WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THE BEHAVIOR
OF A FEATURE LIKE THIS IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN, SO
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT AN
UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IN THE MT SHASTA AREA, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
AGAIN PUSHED BACK THE EVENT BY 12 TO 24 HOURS, BUT HAVE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE LOW AND CHANGED THE PROJECTED COURSE.
TAKING THE TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT, IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW EVENT IS
BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.  THEREFORE, HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF A
HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FROM THE FORECAST.  INSTEAD, IT APPEARS THE
FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE TYPICAL TYPE OF SYSTEM, WITH THE
CLOSED LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST, AND PUSHING
ONSHORE AS AN OPEN TROUGH.

THEREFORE, THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
INFLOW STILL APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO
REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF POPS TO FIT THE NEW FORECAST TRENDS, AND CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.

ONE TOPIC THAT STILL BEARS WATCHING WILL BE THE EAST SIDE AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF COLD AIR BECOMING TRAPPED WITHIN THE VALLEYS AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ICE BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SHOW A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR THIS, BUT IT HAS BEEN AN
ACCOMPANYING FEATURE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR SEVERAL CYCLES. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, AS UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH, BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL SHIFTS.
-BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/06Z TAF CYCLE...A STATIONARY FRONT  IS
BRINGING  WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG  AND NORTH OF A
THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN CURRY COAST NE INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY...AND
EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THIS LINE EXPECT VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN DURING
THE DAY THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL, MAINLY FROM
THE CASCADES WEST, AS THIS FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN  FRIDAY
EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAINFALL TO THE COAST AND
DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
RETURNING TO THOSE AREAS. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014...THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE. SOUTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT WITH HIGH END
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND GALE GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS WILL BECOME CHAOTIC BUILDING TO A VERY STEEP TO STEEP 10 TO 15
FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER PORTION
OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH A LONG NORTHERLY FETCH, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
WAVES AT 8 SECONDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX WITH A DOMINANT FRESH SWELL AT
10 SECONDS WHILE SMALLER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL TRAINS
PERSIST. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM
   PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ356-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
 EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ350-370.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
 FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/CC/SBN/BPN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 281657
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
843 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE. THE BAND OF PRECIP THAT LINGERED OVER
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE IS FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY INLAND THIS MORNING AS
THE JET AXIS SHIFTS EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS AND EVERYTHING
LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS (SUNDAY EVENING). A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT BROUGHT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA ON
THANKSGIVING DAY REMAINS OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT
BROUGHT RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES IN A WIDE AREA FROM ABOUT GOLD
BEACH NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THERE WASN`T MUCH
RAIN SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE YESTERDAY, BUT THIS IS ABOUT TO
CHANGE.

THE FRONT WILL GET A PUSH INLAND TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
AND FAR EAST SIDE AREAS MAY NOT END UP WITH MUCH AT ALL. 700 MB
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ARE 45-55 KT AND AS A RESULT...A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES. SEE NPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS. SNOW LEVELS TODAY WILL BE
MOSTLY ABOVE 6000 FEET.

A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT THEN INTO WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL ENERGIZE A SECOND FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE AN
INTERESTING FRONT IN MANY WAYS.

FIRST, THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING AT THE COAST THIS EVENING, THEN SPREADING
INLAND TO THE CASCADES SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...1-3 INCHES ALONG THE COAST, THE UMPQUA
VALLEY AND INTO THE CASCADES/FOOTHILLS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OF CURRY COUNTY (RED MOUND
AND QUAIL PRAIRIE). RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AMOUNT THERE
IS 0.50-1.00 WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR GRANTS PASS AND LOWEST
DOWN NEAR ASHLAND.

SECOND, THERE IS A VERY COLD AIR MASS WITH ORIGINS IN WESTERN
CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT WILL DEAL AT LEAST A GLANCING BLOW
TO OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
REACHING DOWN TO THE MAJOR PASSES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THERE WILL
BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 IN THE CASCADES
DURING THIS TIME, BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE SNOW. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHEN SNOW LEVELS ARE HIGHER SUCH THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE SNOW AT THE MAJOR PASSES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT NEAR
3500 FEET AROUND MOUNT SHASTA CITY SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD DRY
OUT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IF SKIES CLEAR
ENOUGH, IT WILL GET VERY COLD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES AND THERE MAY BE A FROST/FREEZE
SUNDAY MORNING IN PORTIONS OF COOS COUNTY.

THIRD, THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY THEN
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH. THE GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER AMONG THE GUIDANCE, SO HAVE
PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. THERE STILL MAY
BE ENOUGH COLD AIR AROUND FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CASCADES
AND THE EAST SIDE, BUT SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE SUFFICIENTLY FOR
JUST RAIN OVER THE WEST SIDE. SPILDE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM MODELS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN, AND THE
SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
BEYOND SUNDAY. MUCH OF THIS STEMS FROM THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS ARE
HAVING WITH THE CLOSED LOW WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THE BEHAVIOR
OF A FEATURE LIKE THIS IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN, SO
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT AN
UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IN THE MT SHASTA AREA, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
AGAIN PUSHED BACK THE EVENT BY 12 TO 24 HOURS, BUT HAVE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE LOW AND CHANGED THE PROJECTED COURSE.
TAKING THE TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT, IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW EVENT IS
BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.  THEREFORE, HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF A
HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FROM THE FORECAST.  INSTEAD, IT APPEARS THE
FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE TYPICAL TYPE OF SYSTEM, WITH THE
CLOSED LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST, AND PUSHING
ONSHORE AS AN OPEN TROUGH.

THEREFORE, THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
INFLOW STILL APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO
REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF POPS TO FIT THE NEW FORECAST TRENDS, AND CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.

ONE TOPIC THAT STILL BEARS WATCHING WILL BE THE EAST SIDE AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF COLD AIR BECOMING TRAPPED WITHIN THE VALLEYS AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ICE BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SHOW A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR THIS, BUT IT HAS BEEN AN
ACCOMPANYING FEATURE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR SEVERAL CYCLES. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, AS UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH, BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL SHIFTS.
-BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/06Z TAF CYCLE...A STATIONARY FRONT  IS
BRINGING  WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG  AND NORTH OF A
THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN CURRY COAST NE INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY...AND
EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THIS LINE EXPECT VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN DURING
THE DAY THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL, MAINLY FROM
THE CASCADES WEST, AS THIS FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN  FRIDAY
EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAINFALL TO THE COAST AND
DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
RETURNING TO THOSE AREAS. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014...THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE. SOUTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT WITH HIGH END
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND GALE GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS WILL BECOME CHAOTIC BUILDING TO A VERY STEEP TO STEEP 10 TO 15
FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER PORTION
OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH A LONG NORTHERLY FETCH, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
WAVES AT 8 SECONDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX WITH A DOMINANT FRESH SWELL AT
10 SECONDS WHILE SMALLER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL TRAINS
PERSIST. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM
   PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ356-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
 EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ350-370.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
 FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/CC/SBN/BPN



000
FXUS66 KMFR 281214
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
414 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS (SUNDAY EVENING). A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT BROUGHT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA ON
THANKSGIVING DAY REMAINS OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT
BROUGHT RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES IN A WIDE AREA FROM ABOUT GOLD
BEACH NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THERE WASN`T MUCH
RAIN SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE YESTERDAY, BUT THIS IS ABOUT TO
CHANGE.

THE FRONT WILL GET A PUSH INLAND TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
AND FAR EAST SIDE AREAS MAY NOT END UP WITH MUCH AT ALL. 700 MB
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ARE 45-55 KT AND AS A RESULT...A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES. SEE NPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS. SNOW LEVELS TODAY WILL BE
MOSTLY ABOVE 6000 FEET.

A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT THEN INTO WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL ENERGIZE A SECOND FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE AN
INTERESTING FRONT IN MANY WAYS.

FIRST, THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING AT THE COAST THIS EVENING, THEN SPREADING
INLAND TO THE CASCADES SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...1-3 INCHES ALONG THE COAST, THE UMPQUA
VALLEY AND INTO THE CASCADES/FOOTHILLS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OF CURRY COUNTY (RED MOUND
AND QUAIL PRAIRIE). RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AMOUNT THERE
IS 0.50-1.00 WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR GRANTS PASS AND LOWEST
DOWN NEAR ASHLAND.

SECOND, THERE IS A VERY COLD AIR MASS WITH ORIGINS IN WESTERN
CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT WILL DEAL AT LEAST A GLANCING BLOW
TO OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
REACHING DOWN TO THE MAJOR PASSES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THERE WILL
BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 IN THE CASCADES
DURING THIS TIME, BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE SNOW. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHEN SNOW LEVELS ARE HIGHER SUCH THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE SNOW AT THE MAJOR PASSES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT NEAR
3500 FEET AROUND MOUNT SHASTA CITY SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD DRY
OUT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IF SKIES CLEAR
ENOUGH, IT WILL GET VERY COLD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES AND THERE MAY BE A FROST/FREEZE
SUNDAY MORNING IN PORTIONS OF COOS COUNTY.

THIRD, THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY THEN
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH. THE GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER AMONG THE GUIDANCE, SO HAVE
PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. THERE STILL MAY
BE ENOUGH COLD AIR AROUND FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CASCADES
AND THE EAST SIDE, BUT SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE SUFFICIENTLY FOR
JUST RAIN OVER THE WEST SIDE. SPILDE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM MODELS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN, AND THE
SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
BEYOND SUNDAY. MUCH OF THIS STEMS FROM THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS ARE
HAVING WITH THE CLOSED LOW WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THE BEHAVIOR
OF A FEATURE LIKE THIS IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN, SO
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT AN
UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IN THE MT SHASTA AREA, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
AGAIN PUSHED BACK THE EVENT BY 12 TO 24 HOURS, BUT HAVE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE LOW AND CHANGED THE PROJECTED COURSE.
TAKING THE TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT, IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW EVENT IS
BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.  THEREFORE, HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF A
HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FROM THE FORECAST.  INSTEAD, IT APPEARS THE
FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE TYPICAL TYPE OF SYSTEM, WITH THE
CLOSED LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST, AND PUSHING
ONSHORE AS AN OPEN TROUGH.

THEREFORE, THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
INFLOW STILL APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO
REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF POPS TO FIT THE NEW FORECAST TRENDS, AND CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.

ONE TOPIC THAT STILL BEARS WATCHING WILL BE THE EAST SIDE AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF COLD AIR BECOMING TRAPPED WITHIN THE VALLEYS AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ICE BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SHOW A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR THIS, BUT IT HAS BEEN AN
ACCOMPANYING FEATURE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR SEVERAL CYCLES. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, AS UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH, BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL SHIFTS.
-BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/06Z TAF CYCLE...A STATIONARY FRONT  IS
BRINGING  WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG  AND NORTH OF A
THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN CURRY COAST NE INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY...AND
EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THIS LINE EXPECT VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN DURING
THE DAY THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL, MAINLY FROM
THE CASCADES WEST, AS THIS FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN  FRIDAY
EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAINFALL TO THE COAST AND
DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
RETURNING TO THOSE AREAS. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014...THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE. SOUTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT WITH HIGH END
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND GALE GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS WILL BECOME CHAOTIC BUILDING TO A VERY STEEP TO STEEP 10 TO 15
FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER PORTION
OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH A LONG NORTHERLY FETCH, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
WAVES AT 8 SECONDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX WITH A DOMINANT FRESH SWELL AT
10 SECONDS WHILE SMALLER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL TRAINS
PERSIST. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM
   PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ356-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
 EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ350-370.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
 FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/CC/SBN/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 281214
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
414 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS (SUNDAY EVENING). A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT BROUGHT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA ON
THANKSGIVING DAY REMAINS OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT
BROUGHT RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES IN A WIDE AREA FROM ABOUT GOLD
BEACH NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THERE WASN`T MUCH
RAIN SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE YESTERDAY, BUT THIS IS ABOUT TO
CHANGE.

THE FRONT WILL GET A PUSH INLAND TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
AND FAR EAST SIDE AREAS MAY NOT END UP WITH MUCH AT ALL. 700 MB
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ARE 45-55 KT AND AS A RESULT...A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES. SEE NPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS. SNOW LEVELS TODAY WILL BE
MOSTLY ABOVE 6000 FEET.

A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT THEN INTO WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL ENERGIZE A SECOND FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE AN
INTERESTING FRONT IN MANY WAYS.

FIRST, THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING AT THE COAST THIS EVENING, THEN SPREADING
INLAND TO THE CASCADES SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...1-3 INCHES ALONG THE COAST, THE UMPQUA
VALLEY AND INTO THE CASCADES/FOOTHILLS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OF CURRY COUNTY (RED MOUND
AND QUAIL PRAIRIE). RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AMOUNT THERE
IS 0.50-1.00 WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR GRANTS PASS AND LOWEST
DOWN NEAR ASHLAND.

SECOND, THERE IS A VERY COLD AIR MASS WITH ORIGINS IN WESTERN
CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT WILL DEAL AT LEAST A GLANCING BLOW
TO OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
REACHING DOWN TO THE MAJOR PASSES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THERE WILL
BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 IN THE CASCADES
DURING THIS TIME, BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE SNOW. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHEN SNOW LEVELS ARE HIGHER SUCH THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE SNOW AT THE MAJOR PASSES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT NEAR
3500 FEET AROUND MOUNT SHASTA CITY SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD DRY
OUT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IF SKIES CLEAR
ENOUGH, IT WILL GET VERY COLD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS IN
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES AND THERE MAY BE A FROST/FREEZE
SUNDAY MORNING IN PORTIONS OF COOS COUNTY.

THIRD, THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY THEN
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH. THE GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER AMONG THE GUIDANCE, SO HAVE
PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. THERE STILL MAY
BE ENOUGH COLD AIR AROUND FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CASCADES
AND THE EAST SIDE, BUT SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE SUFFICIENTLY FOR
JUST RAIN OVER THE WEST SIDE. SPILDE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM MODELS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN, AND THE
SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
BEYOND SUNDAY. MUCH OF THIS STEMS FROM THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS ARE
HAVING WITH THE CLOSED LOW WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THE BEHAVIOR
OF A FEATURE LIKE THIS IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN, SO
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT AN
UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IN THE MT SHASTA AREA, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
AGAIN PUSHED BACK THE EVENT BY 12 TO 24 HOURS, BUT HAVE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE LOW AND CHANGED THE PROJECTED COURSE.
TAKING THE TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT, IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW EVENT IS
BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.  THEREFORE, HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF A
HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FROM THE FORECAST.  INSTEAD, IT APPEARS THE
FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE TYPICAL TYPE OF SYSTEM, WITH THE
CLOSED LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST, AND PUSHING
ONSHORE AS AN OPEN TROUGH.

THEREFORE, THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
INFLOW STILL APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO
REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF POPS TO FIT THE NEW FORECAST TRENDS, AND CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.

ONE TOPIC THAT STILL BEARS WATCHING WILL BE THE EAST SIDE AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF COLD AIR BECOMING TRAPPED WITHIN THE VALLEYS AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ICE BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SHOW A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR THIS, BUT IT HAS BEEN AN
ACCOMPANYING FEATURE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR SEVERAL CYCLES. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, AS UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH, BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL SHIFTS.
-BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/06Z TAF CYCLE...A STATIONARY FRONT  IS
BRINGING  WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG  AND NORTH OF A
THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN CURRY COAST NE INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY...AND
EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THIS LINE EXPECT VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN DURING
THE DAY THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL, MAINLY FROM
THE CASCADES WEST, AS THIS FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN  FRIDAY
EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAINFALL TO THE COAST AND
DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
RETURNING TO THOSE AREAS. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014...THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE. SOUTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT WITH HIGH END
SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND GALE GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS WILL BECOME CHAOTIC BUILDING TO A VERY STEEP TO STEEP 10 TO 15
FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER PORTION
OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH A LONG NORTHERLY FETCH, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
WAVES AT 8 SECONDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX WITH A DOMINANT FRESH SWELL AT
10 SECONDS WHILE SMALLER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL TRAINS
PERSIST. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM
   PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ356-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
 EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ350-370.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY
 FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/CC/SBN/BPN



000
FXUS66 KPQR 281126
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
326 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON
HAS BEEN REACTIVATED THIS MORNING BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CAUSING RAIN TO SLOWLY FILL BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST
REGION. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY LOWERING BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGHER CASCADE PASSES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MIXED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT AND SAT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY... BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND
ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR ON MON...BUT FCST
DETAILS DURING THIS TIME REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON IS BEING REACTIVATED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NE PAC. AS A RESULT...RAIN IS FILLING BACK
IN ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. EXPECT A MILD AND
WET DAY AHEAD...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE STEADY RAIN FALLING FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE 6000 FT.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BE DRIVEN INTO WA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT BY A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALONG WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE SHARP BY PAC NW STANDARDS...WITH THE FCST
MODELS SHOWING ABOUT AN 8 DEG CELSIUS DROP OVER A 6 HR PERIOD AT 850
MB WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS ALL RAIN
BELOW 6000 FT...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE FRONT.X1AEXPECT A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATION SNOW FOR THE
HIGHER CASCADE PASSES WITH THE FRONT. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT MAY MAKE TRAVEL OVER THE PASSES
TREACHEROUS FOR A TIME TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE -6C TO -8 RANGE...WHICH WILL OFTEN SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR. QPF AMOUNTS ON SAT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THERE
WILL BE ANY MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR...OR ALONG THE S WA OR N
OR COAST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANT SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WE WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A
DRY...COLD...AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
PRES MOVES INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. HIGH
RESOLUTION FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL GET TO -10 MB OR POSSIBLY STRONGER. THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR EAST WINDS GUSTING 60-70 MPH THROUGH THE GORGE...AND 40-45
MPH GUSTS IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS
TREND...A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S IN AND NEAR THE GORGE AND 40S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE.  PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FCST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES CONSIDERABLY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CLOSED LOW PRES
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR SW ON SUN AND SUN
NIGHT. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS MODEL HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE
LOW WOULD PUSH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD SOME MOISTURE AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONSHORE BEGINNING MON MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BEEN TENDING TO KEEP THE LOW FURTHER
OFFSHORE...WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER REMAINING IN CONTROL OVER THE PAC
NW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
00Z NAM AS WELL NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION...BRINGING SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH ON MON. AN
EASTERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THROUGH THE GORGE...SO ANY PRECIP THAT
DOES FALL COULD BRING FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE GORGE...AND
ALSO POTENTIALLY INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
FCST MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO PUSH THROUGH LATER MON NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND BRING THE
TRANSITION TO A MILDER AIR MASS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS ARE VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER FROM THE SOUTH
OREGON COAST NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST OREGON...IMPACTING THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NORTHWEST OREGON. TO THE NORTH OF A FRONT A
HANDFUL OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH. ANOTHER MORE ROBUST COLD
FRONT WAS ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL STEADIER
RAIN...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NET RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED RATHER
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. THE COAST WILL SEE MOSTLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AS THE NORTHERN FRONT
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. INLAND WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND
LOW VFR CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SHOWERY FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME VFR
CONDITIONS TRYING TO DEVELOP...AND DRAMATICALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW SOME MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH LOW
ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL AND APPROACHES WITH CIGS 2500 TO 3500 FT
RANGE. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MID DAY TODAY
CIGS MAY TREND MORE TO THE MVFR CATEGORY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MUCH OF TODAY...SHIFTING TO W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN
4 AND 7 PM THIS EVENING. PT
&&

.MARINE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST GUSTS TO 25 KT AT TIMES INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY
BE SHORT PERIODS OF SUB ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION INSTEAD OF THE
RULE. ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS INLAND INTO NORTHEAST
OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING. A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COAST AND WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WIND. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE ON SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED
EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY
EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE OFFSHORE WIND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT FAVOR THE ECMWF WIND PATTERN.

SEAS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 12 FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING. SEAS FALL
BELOW 10 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST WATERS TONIGHT...BUT NOT
IN THE NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING.
SEAS IN THE CENTRAL WATERS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 10 FT AGAIN FOR A
TIME ON SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 FT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW LATER THIS WEEKEND WILL DECREASE WAVE HEIGHT...
BUT RESULT IN VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     4 AM PST SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 281126
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
326 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON
HAS BEEN REACTIVATED THIS MORNING BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CAUSING RAIN TO SLOWLY FILL BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST
REGION. A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY LOWERING BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGHER CASCADE PASSES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MIXED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT AND SAT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY... BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND
ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR ON MON...BUT FCST
DETAILS DURING THIS TIME REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON IS BEING REACTIVATED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NE PAC. AS A RESULT...RAIN IS FILLING BACK
IN ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. EXPECT A MILD AND
WET DAY AHEAD...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE STEADY RAIN FALLING FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE 6000 FT.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BE DRIVEN INTO WA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT BY A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALONG WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE SHARP BY PAC NW STANDARDS...WITH THE FCST
MODELS SHOWING ABOUT AN 8 DEG CELSIUS DROP OVER A 6 HR PERIOD AT 850
MB WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS ALL RAIN
BELOW 6000 FT...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE FRONT.X1AEXPECT A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATION SNOW FOR THE
HIGHER CASCADE PASSES WITH THE FRONT. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT MAY MAKE TRAVEL OVER THE PASSES
TREACHEROUS FOR A TIME TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE -6C TO -8 RANGE...WHICH WILL OFTEN SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR. QPF AMOUNTS ON SAT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THERE
WILL BE ANY MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR...OR ALONG THE S WA OR N
OR COAST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANT SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WE WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A
DRY...COLD...AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
PRES MOVES INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. HIGH
RESOLUTION FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL GET TO -10 MB OR POSSIBLY STRONGER. THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR EAST WINDS GUSTING 60-70 MPH THROUGH THE GORGE...AND 40-45
MPH GUSTS IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS
TREND...A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S IN AND NEAR THE GORGE AND 40S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE.  PYLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FCST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES CONSIDERABLY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CLOSED LOW PRES
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR SW ON SUN AND SUN
NIGHT. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS MODEL HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE
LOW WOULD PUSH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD SOME MOISTURE AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONSHORE BEGINNING MON MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BEEN TENDING TO KEEP THE LOW FURTHER
OFFSHORE...WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER REMAINING IN CONTROL OVER THE PAC
NW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
00Z NAM AS WELL NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION...BRINGING SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH ON MON. AN
EASTERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THROUGH THE GORGE...SO ANY PRECIP THAT
DOES FALL COULD BRING FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE GORGE...AND
ALSO POTENTIALLY INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
FCST MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO PUSH THROUGH LATER MON NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND BRING THE
TRANSITION TO A MILDER AIR MASS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS ARE VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. PYLE

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER FROM THE SOUTH
OREGON COAST NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST OREGON...IMPACTING THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NORTHWEST OREGON. TO THE NORTH OF A FRONT A
HANDFUL OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH. ANOTHER MORE ROBUST COLD
FRONT WAS ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHWEST OREGON LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL STEADIER
RAIN...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NET RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED RATHER
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. THE COAST WILL SEE MOSTLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AS THE NORTHERN FRONT
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. INLAND WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND
LOW VFR CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SHOWERY FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME VFR
CONDITIONS TRYING TO DEVELOP...AND DRAMATICALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW SOME MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH LOW
ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL AND APPROACHES WITH CIGS 2500 TO 3500 FT
RANGE. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MID DAY TODAY
CIGS MAY TREND MORE TO THE MVFR CATEGORY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MUCH OF TODAY...SHIFTING TO W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN
4 AND 7 PM THIS EVENING. PT
&&

.MARINE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST GUSTS TO 25 KT AT TIMES INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY
BE SHORT PERIODS OF SUB ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION INSTEAD OF THE
RULE. ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS INLAND INTO NORTHEAST
OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING. A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COAST AND WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WIND. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE ON SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED
EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY
EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE OFFSHORE WIND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT FAVOR THE ECMWF WIND PATTERN.

SEAS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 12 FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING. SEAS FALL
BELOW 10 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST WATERS TONIGHT...BUT NOT
IN THE NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING.
SEAS IN THE CENTRAL WATERS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 10 FT AGAIN FOR A
TIME ON SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 FT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW LATER THIS WEEKEND WILL DECREASE WAVE HEIGHT...
BUT RESULT IN VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     4 AM PST SATURDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 281043 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
245 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE FIRST FRONT RUNS FROM EAST CENTRAL OREGON SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AT THIS TIME. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT IS SHOWN ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON.
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. THE
GFS MODEL MERGES THIS COLD FRONT WITH THE NEXT ONE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
OREGON...AND MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY.
DRIER AND MUCH COLDER WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 25 TO 30
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING CWA WIDE. VERY COLD BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY SPEEDS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS THE
TIMING. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE EUROPEAN WITH MOISTURE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE REST OF THE
AREA BY MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN LOW WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING
SNOW. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
RISING SNOW LEVELS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SNOW TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE WARM AIR MOVES ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SOME RAIN SHADOWING EAST OF THE
CASCADES FOR KYKM AND KPSC. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY WITH
15-25 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DMH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  35  34  14 /  60  80  50  20
ALW  62  37  36  16 /  70  80  50  20
PSC  59  35  37  17 /  30  50  20  10
YKM  53  32  31  12 /  30  30  20   0
HRI  59  36  37  15 /  40  60  20  10
ELN  50  28  27  12 /  40  40  20   0
RDM  55  34  33   8 /  50  70  50  20
LGD  51  38  39  12 /  70  80  70  30
GCD  52  35  34  11 /  60  60  70  30
DLS  54  36  37  23 /  60  70  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/84/84






000
FXUS66 KPDT 281043 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
245 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE FIRST FRONT RUNS FROM EAST CENTRAL OREGON SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AT THIS TIME. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT IS SHOWN ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON.
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. THE
GFS MODEL MERGES THIS COLD FRONT WITH THE NEXT ONE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
OREGON...AND MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY.
DRIER AND MUCH COLDER WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 25 TO 30
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING CWA WIDE. VERY COLD BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY SPEEDS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS THE
TIMING. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE EUROPEAN WITH MOISTURE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE REST OF THE
AREA BY MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN LOW WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING
SNOW. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
RISING SNOW LEVELS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SNOW TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE WARM AIR MOVES ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SOME RAIN SHADOWING EAST OF THE
CASCADES FOR KYKM AND KPSC. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY WITH
15-25 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DMH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  35  34  14 /  60  80  50  20
ALW  62  37  36  16 /  70  80  50  20
PSC  59  35  37  17 /  30  50  20  10
YKM  53  32  31  12 /  30  30  20   0
HRI  59  36  37  15 /  40  60  20  10
ELN  50  28  27  12 /  40  40  20   0
RDM  55  34  33   8 /  50  70  50  20
LGD  51  38  39  12 /  70  80  70  30
GCD  52  35  34  11 /  60  60  70  30
DLS  54  36  37  23 /  60  70  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/84/84







000
FXUS65 KBOI 281016
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
316 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING TODAY...BUT PLACE LIKE MCCALL...
WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING...WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN
MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH...AS SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SATURDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL ENTER BAKER COUNTY IN THE
MORNING...REACH THE BOISE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND GET TO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...BUT FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF THE NOTABLE PRECIP. THROUGHOUT
THESE FIRST TWO DAYS...PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVY.
LOCATIONS ABOVE AROUND 7000 FEET COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW.
PLACES LIKE MCCALL...AT 5000 FEET...WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ROAD TEMPS WILL PREVENT
THE SNOW FROM CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE POPULATED
AREAS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IF YOU PLAN
ON TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER PASSES...BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY SNOW
AND SNOW-PACKED ROADS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND PRECIP
WILL DECREASE. ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS...
AND THESE WILL BE FOUND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS THAT WILL BE
GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. 00Z GFS/06Z NAM HAVE THE FASTEST TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...REACHING MCCALL/BAKER CITY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR WILL
MIX OUT OF MOST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE CA COAST AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING PACIFIC
MOISTURE SO HAVE LEFT POPS HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY.
THE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC LOW OFF THE CA
COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY LEAVING MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
REMAIN ABOVE OR NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF A KBNO-KONO-KSNT
LINE...FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST AT 35 TO 45 KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH FOR
MVFR RAIN CHANGING TO IFR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH
TO THE NEVADA LINE AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS.
SUNDAY DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281016
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
316 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING TODAY...BUT PLACE LIKE MCCALL...
WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING...WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN
MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH...AS SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SATURDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL ENTER BAKER COUNTY IN THE
MORNING...REACH THE BOISE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND GET TO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...BUT FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF THE NOTABLE PRECIP. THROUGHOUT
THESE FIRST TWO DAYS...PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVY.
LOCATIONS ABOVE AROUND 7000 FEET COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW.
PLACES LIKE MCCALL...AT 5000 FEET...WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ROAD TEMPS WILL PREVENT
THE SNOW FROM CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE POPULATED
AREAS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IF YOU PLAN
ON TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER PASSES...BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY SNOW
AND SNOW-PACKED ROADS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND PRECIP
WILL DECREASE. ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS...
AND THESE WILL BE FOUND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS THAT WILL BE
GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. 00Z GFS/06Z NAM HAVE THE FASTEST TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...REACHING MCCALL/BAKER CITY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR WILL
MIX OUT OF MOST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE CA COAST AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING PACIFIC
MOISTURE SO HAVE LEFT POPS HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY.
THE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC LOW OFF THE CA
COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY LEAVING MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
REMAIN ABOVE OR NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF A KBNO-KONO-KSNT
LINE...FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST AT 35 TO 45 KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH FOR
MVFR RAIN CHANGING TO IFR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH
TO THE NEVADA LINE AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS.
SUNDAY DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281016
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
316 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING TODAY...BUT PLACE LIKE MCCALL...
WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING...WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN
MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH...AS SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SATURDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL ENTER BAKER COUNTY IN THE
MORNING...REACH THE BOISE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND GET TO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...BUT FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF THE NOTABLE PRECIP. THROUGHOUT
THESE FIRST TWO DAYS...PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVY.
LOCATIONS ABOVE AROUND 7000 FEET COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW.
PLACES LIKE MCCALL...AT 5000 FEET...WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ROAD TEMPS WILL PREVENT
THE SNOW FROM CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE POPULATED
AREAS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IF YOU PLAN
ON TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER PASSES...BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY SNOW
AND SNOW-PACKED ROADS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND PRECIP
WILL DECREASE. ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS...
AND THESE WILL BE FOUND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS THAT WILL BE
GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. 00Z GFS/06Z NAM HAVE THE FASTEST TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...REACHING MCCALL/BAKER CITY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR WILL
MIX OUT OF MOST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE CA COAST AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING PACIFIC
MOISTURE SO HAVE LEFT POPS HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY.
THE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC LOW OFF THE CA
COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY LEAVING MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
REMAIN ABOVE OR NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF A KBNO-KONO-KSNT
LINE...FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST AT 35 TO 45 KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH FOR
MVFR RAIN CHANGING TO IFR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH
TO THE NEVADA LINE AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS.
SUNDAY DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 281016
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
316 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING TODAY...BUT PLACE LIKE MCCALL...
WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING...WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN
MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH...AS SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SATURDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL ENTER BAKER COUNTY IN THE
MORNING...REACH THE BOISE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND GET TO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...BUT FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF THE NOTABLE PRECIP. THROUGHOUT
THESE FIRST TWO DAYS...PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVY.
LOCATIONS ABOVE AROUND 7000 FEET COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW.
PLACES LIKE MCCALL...AT 5000 FEET...WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ROAD TEMPS WILL PREVENT
THE SNOW FROM CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE POPULATED
AREAS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IF YOU PLAN
ON TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER PASSES...BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY SNOW
AND SNOW-PACKED ROADS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND PRECIP
WILL DECREASE. ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS...
AND THESE WILL BE FOUND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS THAT WILL BE
GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. 00Z GFS/06Z NAM HAVE THE FASTEST TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...REACHING MCCALL/BAKER CITY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR WILL
MIX OUT OF MOST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE CA COAST AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING PACIFIC
MOISTURE SO HAVE LEFT POPS HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY.
THE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC LOW OFF THE CA
COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY LEAVING MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
REMAIN ABOVE OR NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF A KBNO-KONO-KSNT
LINE...FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST AT 35 TO 45 KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH FOR
MVFR RAIN CHANGING TO IFR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH
TO THE NEVADA LINE AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS.
SUNDAY DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS66 KPDT 280905
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
105 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE FIRST FRONT RUNS FROM EAST CENTRAL OREGON SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AT THIS TIME. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT IS SHOWN ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON.
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. THE
GFS MODEL MERGES THIS COLD FRONT WITH THE NEXT ONE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
OREGON...AND MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY.
DRIER AND MUCH COLDER WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 25 TO 30
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING CWA WIDE. VERY COLD BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY SPEEDS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS THE
TIMING. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE EUROPEAN WITH MOISTURE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE REST OF THE
AREA BY MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN LOW WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING
SNOW. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
RISING SNOW LEVELS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SNOW TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE WARM AIR MOVES ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION). LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM CENTRAL OREGON NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME
RAIN SHADOWING EAST OF THE CASCADES FOR KYKM AND KPSC. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST 5-20 KTS OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE 15-25 KTS REGION WIDE
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  35  34  14 /  60  80  50  20
ALW  62  37  36  16 /  70  80  50  20
PSC  59  35  37  17 /  30  50  20  10
YKM  53  32  31  12 /  30  30  20   0
HRI  59  36  37  15 /  40  60  20  10
ELN  50  28  27  12 /  40  40  20   0
RDM  55  34  33   8 /  50  70  50  20
LGD  51  38  39  12 /  70  80  70  30
GCD  52  35  34  11 /  60  60  70  30
DLS  54  36  37  23 /  60  70  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/84/84








000
FXUS66 KPDT 280523 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
923 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...CURRENTLY RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN
OREGON. A FRONTAL BAND IS STALLED FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. A VORT MAX MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WILL INCREASE THE SHOWERS IN EASTERN OREGON LATER TONIGHT. A LOW
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IS DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS IS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY EXISTS IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE CREATING SPORADIC SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE TRENDS ARE COVERED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
FROM CENTRAL OREGON NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME RAIN SHADOWING EAST
OF THE CASCADES FOR KYKM AND KPSC. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 5-20 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE 15-25 KTS REGION WIDE ON FRIDAY. 76

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACNW
TONIGHT. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT, WHILE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH INTO WASHINGTON STATE FRIDAY. INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE
IN WASHINGTON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS BECOMING 15 TO
30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS WIND, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE MAIN PORTION
OF THE WASHINGTON SURFACE LOW WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT, WITH MARINE POLAR AIR
BEHIND IT, MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
BEGIN TO FALL EARLY IN THE MORNING SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE INTO
KITTITAS COUNTY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT LATE IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
90

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING AND THEN FALL
THROUGH THE DAY.  THE COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDES SOME LIFT OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MOISTURE
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS HOLD THE MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND THEN JUST WASH IT OUT.  HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE MONDAY TIME FRAME AND HAVE
DECREASED THE CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN FOR THE AREA. ML

TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS TRIES TO LINGER A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST AND HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION WILL END UP BEING CORRECT AT
THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...SINCE IT HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO MAKE A BIT MORE SENSE AS FAR AS
THE GENERAL METEOROLOGICAL SETUP. ASSUMING THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT
IN THIS PERIOD...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER
NOTE...AS WARMER PACIFIC AIR ATTEMPTS TO OVERRIDE THE STUBBORN
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK FREEZING RAIN MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE BASINS OF NORTHERN OREGON AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FREEZING
RAIN COULD BECOME AN ISSUE I DID NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST JUST YET...WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS POSSIBLE HAZARD THOUGH. GENERALLY STAYED UNDER
GUIDANCE WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS GUIDANCE
SEEMED TO UNDERESTIMATE JUST HOW STUBBORN THE COLD ARCTIC ORIGIN AIR
CAN BE IN OUR AREA. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  61  35  36 /  20  60  80  50
ALW  50  60  37  38 /  30  70  80  50
PSC  48  60  35  39 /  20  30  50  20
YKM  38  54  32  33 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  45  60  36  39 /  20  40  60  20
ELN  38  51  28  29 /  30  40  40  20
RDM  40  56  34  35 /  40  50  70  50
LGD  43  52  38  41 /  40  70  80  70
GCD  42  53  35  36 /  40  60  60  70
DLS  45  55  36  39 /  40  60  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76








000
FXUS66 KPDT 280523 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
923 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...CURRENTLY RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN
OREGON. A FRONTAL BAND IS STALLED FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. A VORT MAX MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WILL INCREASE THE SHOWERS IN EASTERN OREGON LATER TONIGHT. A LOW
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IS DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS IS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY EXISTS IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE CREATING SPORADIC SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE TRENDS ARE COVERED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
FROM CENTRAL OREGON NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME RAIN SHADOWING EAST
OF THE CASCADES FOR KYKM AND KPSC. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 5-20 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE 15-25 KTS REGION WIDE ON FRIDAY. 76

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACNW
TONIGHT. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT, WHILE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH INTO WASHINGTON STATE FRIDAY. INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE
IN WASHINGTON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS BECOMING 15 TO
30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS WIND, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE MAIN PORTION
OF THE WASHINGTON SURFACE LOW WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT, WITH MARINE POLAR AIR
BEHIND IT, MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
BEGIN TO FALL EARLY IN THE MORNING SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE INTO
KITTITAS COUNTY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT LATE IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
90

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING AND THEN FALL
THROUGH THE DAY.  THE COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDES SOME LIFT OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MOISTURE
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS HOLD THE MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND THEN JUST WASH IT OUT.  HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE MONDAY TIME FRAME AND HAVE
DECREASED THE CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN FOR THE AREA. ML

TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS TRIES TO LINGER A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST AND HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION WILL END UP BEING CORRECT AT
THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...SINCE IT HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO MAKE A BIT MORE SENSE AS FAR AS
THE GENERAL METEOROLOGICAL SETUP. ASSUMING THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT
IN THIS PERIOD...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER
NOTE...AS WARMER PACIFIC AIR ATTEMPTS TO OVERRIDE THE STUBBORN
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK FREEZING RAIN MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE BASINS OF NORTHERN OREGON AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FREEZING
RAIN COULD BECOME AN ISSUE I DID NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST JUST YET...WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS POSSIBLE HAZARD THOUGH. GENERALLY STAYED UNDER
GUIDANCE WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS GUIDANCE
SEEMED TO UNDERESTIMATE JUST HOW STUBBORN THE COLD ARCTIC ORIGIN AIR
CAN BE IN OUR AREA. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  61  35  36 /  20  60  80  50
ALW  50  60  37  38 /  30  70  80  50
PSC  48  60  35  39 /  20  30  50  20
YKM  38  54  32  33 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  45  60  36  39 /  20  40  60  20
ELN  38  51  28  29 /  30  40  40  20
RDM  40  56  34  35 /  40  50  70  50
LGD  43  52  38  41 /  40  70  80  70
GCD  42  53  35  36 /  40  60  60  70
DLS  45  55  36  39 /  40  60  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76








000
FXUS66 KPDT 280523 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
923 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...CURRENTLY RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN
OREGON. A FRONTAL BAND IS STALLED FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. A VORT MAX MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WILL INCREASE THE SHOWERS IN EASTERN OREGON LATER TONIGHT. A LOW
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IS DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS IS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY EXISTS IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE CREATING SPORADIC SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE TRENDS ARE COVERED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
FROM CENTRAL OREGON NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME RAIN SHADOWING EAST
OF THE CASCADES FOR KYKM AND KPSC. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 5-20 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE 15-25 KTS REGION WIDE ON FRIDAY. 76

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACNW
TONIGHT. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT, WHILE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH INTO WASHINGTON STATE FRIDAY. INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE
IN WASHINGTON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS BECOMING 15 TO
30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS WIND, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE MAIN PORTION
OF THE WASHINGTON SURFACE LOW WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT, WITH MARINE POLAR AIR
BEHIND IT, MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
BEGIN TO FALL EARLY IN THE MORNING SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE INTO
KITTITAS COUNTY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT LATE IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
90

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING AND THEN FALL
THROUGH THE DAY.  THE COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDES SOME LIFT OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MOISTURE
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS HOLD THE MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND THEN JUST WASH IT OUT.  HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE MONDAY TIME FRAME AND HAVE
DECREASED THE CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN FOR THE AREA. ML

TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS TRIES TO LINGER A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST AND HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION WILL END UP BEING CORRECT AT
THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...SINCE IT HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO MAKE A BIT MORE SENSE AS FAR AS
THE GENERAL METEOROLOGICAL SETUP. ASSUMING THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT
IN THIS PERIOD...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER
NOTE...AS WARMER PACIFIC AIR ATTEMPTS TO OVERRIDE THE STUBBORN
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK FREEZING RAIN MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE BASINS OF NORTHERN OREGON AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FREEZING
RAIN COULD BECOME AN ISSUE I DID NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST JUST YET...WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS POSSIBLE HAZARD THOUGH. GENERALLY STAYED UNDER
GUIDANCE WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS GUIDANCE
SEEMED TO UNDERESTIMATE JUST HOW STUBBORN THE COLD ARCTIC ORIGIN AIR
CAN BE IN OUR AREA. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  61  35  36 /  20  60  80  50
ALW  50  60  37  38 /  30  70  80  50
PSC  48  60  35  39 /  20  30  50  20
YKM  38  54  32  33 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  45  60  36  39 /  20  40  60  20
ELN  38  51  28  29 /  30  40  40  20
RDM  40  56  34  35 /  40  50  70  50
LGD  43  52  38  41 /  40  70  80  70
GCD  42  53  35  36 /  40  60  60  70
DLS  45  55  36  39 /  40  60  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76








000
FXUS66 KPDT 280523 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
923 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...CURRENTLY RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN
OREGON. A FRONTAL BAND IS STALLED FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. A VORT MAX MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WILL INCREASE THE SHOWERS IN EASTERN OREGON LATER TONIGHT. A LOW
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IS DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS IS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY EXISTS IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE CREATING SPORADIC SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE TRENDS ARE COVERED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
FROM CENTRAL OREGON NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME RAIN SHADOWING EAST
OF THE CASCADES FOR KYKM AND KPSC. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 5-20 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE 15-25 KTS REGION WIDE ON FRIDAY. 76

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACNW
TONIGHT. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT, WHILE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH INTO WASHINGTON STATE FRIDAY. INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE
IN WASHINGTON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS BECOMING 15 TO
30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS WIND, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE MAIN PORTION
OF THE WASHINGTON SURFACE LOW WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT, WITH MARINE POLAR AIR
BEHIND IT, MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
BEGIN TO FALL EARLY IN THE MORNING SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE INTO
KITTITAS COUNTY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT LATE IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
90

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING AND THEN FALL
THROUGH THE DAY.  THE COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDES SOME LIFT OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MOISTURE
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS HOLD THE MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND THEN JUST WASH IT OUT.  HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE MONDAY TIME FRAME AND HAVE
DECREASED THE CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN FOR THE AREA. ML

TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS TRIES TO LINGER A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST AND HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION WILL END UP BEING CORRECT AT
THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...SINCE IT HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO MAKE A BIT MORE SENSE AS FAR AS
THE GENERAL METEOROLOGICAL SETUP. ASSUMING THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT
IN THIS PERIOD...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER
NOTE...AS WARMER PACIFIC AIR ATTEMPTS TO OVERRIDE THE STUBBORN
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK FREEZING RAIN MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE BASINS OF NORTHERN OREGON AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FREEZING
RAIN COULD BECOME AN ISSUE I DID NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST JUST YET...WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS POSSIBLE HAZARD THOUGH. GENERALLY STAYED UNDER
GUIDANCE WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS GUIDANCE
SEEMED TO UNDERESTIMATE JUST HOW STUBBORN THE COLD ARCTIC ORIGIN AIR
CAN BE IN OUR AREA. 77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  61  35  36 /  20  60  80  50
ALW  50  60  37  38 /  30  70  80  50
PSC  48  60  35  39 /  20  30  50  20
YKM  38  54  32  33 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  45  60  36  39 /  20  40  60  20
ELN  38  51  28  29 /  30  40  40  20
RDM  40  56  34  35 /  40  50  70  50
LGD  43  52  38  41 /  40  70  80  70
GCD  42  53  35  36 /  40  60  60  70
DLS  45  55  36  39 /  40  60  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76








000
FXUS66 KMFR 280505
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND IS BRINGING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT IN POSITION ONLY SLIGHTLY
AND EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CURRENT
MODELS SHOW NEAR GALES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE
COAST. SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND ADDED HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING TO
THE FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG
SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND TROUGH TO THE NORTH MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE AREA. AS A RESULT EXPECT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THOUGH, GENERALLY ABOVE 6000
FT.

THEN ON SATURDAY, MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL
DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION AND BRINGING COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE 00Z GFS IS SHOWING COOLER AIR ALOFT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL
THE GFS IS THE WARMER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE SREF, NAM AND
ECMWF. OVERALL, EXPECT THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SATURDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL BE LIGHT. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES,
WESTERN FOOTHILL MOUNTAINS, AND SOME EAST SIDE AREAS SUCH AS NEAR
CHEMULT.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...THERE IS WIDESPREAD RAIN
ALONG THE LINE FROM GOLD BEACH NE INTO ROSEBURG AND THEN FURTHER
EAST INTO THE CASCADES. IN THIS AREA MODERATE RAIN WILL BRING CIGS
AND VIS DOWN TO MVFR. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL REMAIN HIGH VFR FROM THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE SOUTH. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
SATURATED ON FRIDAY WITH CIGS COMING DOWN TO MVFR BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON OF FRIDAY. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014...THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE. SOUTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WINDS
AND GALE GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BECOME
CHAOTIC BUILDING TO A VERY STEEP TO STEEP 10 TO 15 FEET. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. SO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER PORTION OF THE WATERS.
SEAS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH A LONG NORTHERLY FETCH, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WAVES AT 8
SECONDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX WITH A DOMINANT FRESH SWELL AT 10
SECONDS WHILE SMALLER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL TRAINS
PERSIST. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE 50 MILE WIDE NEARLY CONSTANT BAND OF PRECIP THAT
EXTEND FROM PORT ORFORD TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ROSEBURG WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MODOC COUNTY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING
AS THE AXIS OF THE JET SLOWLY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATE
TOMORROW MORNING THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A +100 KT JET. 700 MB WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL MIX DOWN
PERIODICALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING
ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE. WITH THE
BROAD UPPER SUPPORT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS TO A NARROW STRIP OF THE COAST AS WELL. THE JET
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER JET
DIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER THIS SECOND JET SHIFTS EAST
BEFORE MAKING IT DOWN TO SOUTHERN OREGON. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
PATTERN EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO A CLOSED LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN LEAVES A PERSISTENT BAND OF PRECIP
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

EXTENDED TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM MODELS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN, AND THE
SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
BEYOND SUNDAY. MUCH OF THIS STEMS FROM THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS ARE
HAVING WITH THE CLOSED LOW WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THE BEHAVIOR
OF A FEATURE LIKE THIS IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN, SO
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT AN
UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IN THE MT SHASTA AREA, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
AGAIN PUSHED BACK THE EVENT BY 12 TO 24 HOURS, BUT HAVE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE LOW AND CHANGED THE PROJECTED COURSE.
TAKING THE TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT, IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW EVENT IS
BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.  THEREFORE, HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF A
HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FROM THE FORECAST.  INSTEAD, IT APPEARS THE
FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE TYPICAL TYPE OF SYSTEM, WITH THE
CLOSED LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST, AND PUSHING
ONSHORE AS AN OPEN TROUGH.

THEREFORE, THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
INFLOW STILL APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO
REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF POPS TO FIT THE NEW FORECAST TRENDS, AND CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.

ONE TOPIC THAT STILL BEARS WATCHING WILL BE THE EAST SIDE AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF COLD AIR BECOMING TRAPPED WITHIN THE VALLEYS AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ICE BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SHOW A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR THIS, BUT IT HAS BEEN AN
ACCOMPANYING FEATURE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR SEVERAL CYCLES. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, AS UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH, BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL SHIFTS.
-BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC



000
FXUS66 KPQR 280505
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
843 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STALLED OVER WESTERN OREGON AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...LIKELY CAUSING
RAIN TO FILL IN AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HILLS AND ABOVE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND ACROSS THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY ATTEMPT TO
SPREAD MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IT IS A MILD AND RAINY NIGHT.
THIS KIND OF WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER DAY THEN MORE WINTER LIKE
WEATHER.

PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY WITH ONE STALLED FRONT OVER SW
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING STEADY RAIN ACROSS LANE AND
LINN COUNTIES.NORTH OF THAT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE BUT
WITH DECENT SW FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS THE OREGON CASCADE ZONES
ACCUMULATED AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE COAST
RANGE HAD ABOUT HALF THAT. FURTHER NORTH OVER WESTERN WA ANOTHER
FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH.  THIS FRONT BECOMES DOMINANT
OVERNIGHT AND FRI THEN SLIDES INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRI
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL USHER IN THE COLDER WEATHER.  MODELS
INDICATE THIS WILL BE A SHARP FRONT. 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOWS TIGHT
THICKNESS/TEMPERATURE PACKING UP TO 700 MB. NAM FRONTOGENSIS IS
STRONG UP THROUGH 850 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE DECENT LIFT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS LOOKED TOO HIGH PREVIOUSLY
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT LOOK MORE REASONABLE NOW.  SO HAVE UPDATED QPF
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND FRI.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
12Z/18Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAK MOIST/CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A COUPLE STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY MARGINAL SO WE
DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...CHANCES ARE
PROBABLY AROUND 5-10 PERCENT FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

SNOW LEVELS ARE PRESENTLY VERY HIGH...WITH TIMBERLINE WEBCAMS SHOWING
RAIN AS HIGH AS 6000-7000 FT ELEVATION. IT WILL BE A MUCH DIFFERENT
STORY FRI NIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS RAPIDLY LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS 925 MB TEMPS CRASHING FROM +9 DEG C LATE FRI AFTERNOON TO
-1 DEG C SIX HOURS LATER. BY OUR STANDARDS...THAT IS A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE DROP. AT THIS POINT...MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SUPPORT
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES REACHING THE NORTH COAST AND VALLEY FLOOR BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW.
GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -7 TO -8 DEG C RANGE...HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
STILL PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW OR GRAUPEL DOWN TO THE
VALLEY FLOOR. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 TO 1000 FT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING WITH
ELEVATION ABOVE THAT. THE HIGHER WEST HILLS OF PORTLAND AND SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SUBURBS MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE
CENTERED EAST OF THE CASCADES BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...WITH SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING
KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GET TO -10 MB OR POSSIBLY STRONGER.
THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR EAST WINDS GUSTING 60-70 MPH THROUGH THE
GORGE...AND 40-45 MPH GUSTS IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. IF MODELS
CONTINUE THIS TREND...A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S IN AND NEAR THE GORGE AND 40S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG EAST WINDS SHOULD
EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS SHOULD CUT DOWN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT...THOUGH
SOME SORT OF EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD LINGER INSIDE THE GORGE. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO CUT OFF SOMEWHERE WEST OF CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. THE 12Z/18Z GFS HAVE
BEEN OUTLIERS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL...IN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OREGON SUN NIGHT/MONDAY THEN
HAVING IT LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE LAST COUPLE RUNS
OF THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP US GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ANOTHER MODERATE SURGE OF EAST WIND TUE/WED. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THERE WAS A LARGE CONSENSUS THAT THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOULD BE DISCOUNTED FOR NOW...WITH OUR FORECAST FOLLOWING
MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IF MODELS START
TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION...WE MAY NEED TO
CONTEND WITH SNOW OR ICE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE INTERIOR HAS REMAINED LARGELY
STATIONARY WITH MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING AS LOWER CLOUD DECKS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. MEANWHILE...MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. EXPECT BOUNDARY WITH
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...SO
EXPECT TRENDING TOWARD INCREASINGLY MVFR CIGS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH INCREASING PRECIP
INTENSITY THROUGH FRI MORNING...AND HEAVIER RAIN MAY BRING VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO THE 3-5 SM RANGE. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRI...BRINGING A SHIFT TO NW WINDS TO NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND 18Z FRI...REACHING THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS BY 06Z SAT. HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE OREGON COAST
RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONTINUES AT THE TERMINAL
AND APPROACHES WITH CIGS 2500-3500 FT RANGE. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. S WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO
W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 00Z-03Z SAT. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST GUSTS TO 25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH FRI MORNING. THERE MAY BE
SHORT PERIODS OF SUB-ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION INSTEAD OF THE RULE. FAVOR THE
NAM/GFS WIND FIELD THROUGH SAT. A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI AND EARLY FRI EVENING
FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE ON
SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE OFFSHORE WIND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
FAVOR THE ECMWF WIND PATTERN.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 10 TO 13 FT RANGE AND WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 FT BY SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW LATER THIS WEEKEND WILL DECREASE WAVE HEIGHT...BUT RESULT IN
VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS. CULLEN/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 280505
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
843 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STALLED OVER WESTERN OREGON AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...LIKELY CAUSING
RAIN TO FILL IN AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HILLS AND ABOVE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND ACROSS THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY ATTEMPT TO
SPREAD MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IT IS A MILD AND RAINY NIGHT.
THIS KIND OF WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER DAY THEN MORE WINTER LIKE
WEATHER.

PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY WITH ONE STALLED FRONT OVER SW
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING STEADY RAIN ACROSS LANE AND
LINN COUNTIES.NORTH OF THAT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE BUT
WITH DECENT SW FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS THE OREGON CASCADE ZONES
ACCUMULATED AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE COAST
RANGE HAD ABOUT HALF THAT. FURTHER NORTH OVER WESTERN WA ANOTHER
FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH.  THIS FRONT BECOMES DOMINANT
OVERNIGHT AND FRI THEN SLIDES INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRI
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL USHER IN THE COLDER WEATHER.  MODELS
INDICATE THIS WILL BE A SHARP FRONT. 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOWS TIGHT
THICKNESS/TEMPERATURE PACKING UP TO 700 MB. NAM FRONTOGENSIS IS
STRONG UP THROUGH 850 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE DECENT LIFT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS LOOKED TOO HIGH PREVIOUSLY
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT LOOK MORE REASONABLE NOW.  SO HAVE UPDATED QPF
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND FRI.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
12Z/18Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAK MOIST/CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A COUPLE STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY MARGINAL SO WE
DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...CHANCES ARE
PROBABLY AROUND 5-10 PERCENT FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

SNOW LEVELS ARE PRESENTLY VERY HIGH...WITH TIMBERLINE WEBCAMS SHOWING
RAIN AS HIGH AS 6000-7000 FT ELEVATION. IT WILL BE A MUCH DIFFERENT
STORY FRI NIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS RAPIDLY LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS 925 MB TEMPS CRASHING FROM +9 DEG C LATE FRI AFTERNOON TO
-1 DEG C SIX HOURS LATER. BY OUR STANDARDS...THAT IS A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE DROP. AT THIS POINT...MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SUPPORT
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES REACHING THE NORTH COAST AND VALLEY FLOOR BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW.
GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -7 TO -8 DEG C RANGE...HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
STILL PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW OR GRAUPEL DOWN TO THE
VALLEY FLOOR. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 TO 1000 FT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING WITH
ELEVATION ABOVE THAT. THE HIGHER WEST HILLS OF PORTLAND AND SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SUBURBS MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE
CENTERED EAST OF THE CASCADES BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...WITH SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING
KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GET TO -10 MB OR POSSIBLY STRONGER.
THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR EAST WINDS GUSTING 60-70 MPH THROUGH THE
GORGE...AND 40-45 MPH GUSTS IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. IF MODELS
CONTINUE THIS TREND...A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S IN AND NEAR THE GORGE AND 40S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG EAST WINDS SHOULD
EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS SHOULD CUT DOWN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT...THOUGH
SOME SORT OF EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD LINGER INSIDE THE GORGE. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO CUT OFF SOMEWHERE WEST OF CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. THE 12Z/18Z GFS HAVE
BEEN OUTLIERS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL...IN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OREGON SUN NIGHT/MONDAY THEN
HAVING IT LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE LAST COUPLE RUNS
OF THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP US GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ANOTHER MODERATE SURGE OF EAST WIND TUE/WED. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THERE WAS A LARGE CONSENSUS THAT THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOULD BE DISCOUNTED FOR NOW...WITH OUR FORECAST FOLLOWING
MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IF MODELS START
TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION...WE MAY NEED TO
CONTEND WITH SNOW OR ICE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE INTERIOR HAS REMAINED LARGELY
STATIONARY WITH MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING AS LOWER CLOUD DECKS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. MEANWHILE...MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. EXPECT BOUNDARY WITH
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...SO
EXPECT TRENDING TOWARD INCREASINGLY MVFR CIGS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH INCREASING PRECIP
INTENSITY THROUGH FRI MORNING...AND HEAVIER RAIN MAY BRING VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO THE 3-5 SM RANGE. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRI...BRINGING A SHIFT TO NW WINDS TO NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND 18Z FRI...REACHING THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS BY 06Z SAT. HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE OREGON COAST
RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONTINUES AT THE TERMINAL
AND APPROACHES WITH CIGS 2500-3500 FT RANGE. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. S WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO
W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 00Z-03Z SAT. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST GUSTS TO 25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH FRI MORNING. THERE MAY BE
SHORT PERIODS OF SUB-ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION INSTEAD OF THE RULE. FAVOR THE
NAM/GFS WIND FIELD THROUGH SAT. A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI AND EARLY FRI EVENING
FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE ON
SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE OFFSHORE WIND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
FAVOR THE ECMWF WIND PATTERN.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 10 TO 13 FT RANGE AND WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 FT BY SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW LATER THIS WEEKEND WILL DECREASE WAVE HEIGHT...BUT RESULT IN
VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS. CULLEN/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 280505
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
843 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STALLED OVER WESTERN OREGON AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...LIKELY CAUSING
RAIN TO FILL IN AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HILLS AND ABOVE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND ACROSS THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY ATTEMPT TO
SPREAD MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IT IS A MILD AND RAINY NIGHT.
THIS KIND OF WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER DAY THEN MORE WINTER LIKE
WEATHER.

PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY WITH ONE STALLED FRONT OVER SW
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING STEADY RAIN ACROSS LANE AND
LINN COUNTIES.NORTH OF THAT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE BUT
WITH DECENT SW FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS THE OREGON CASCADE ZONES
ACCUMULATED AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE COAST
RANGE HAD ABOUT HALF THAT. FURTHER NORTH OVER WESTERN WA ANOTHER
FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH.  THIS FRONT BECOMES DOMINANT
OVERNIGHT AND FRI THEN SLIDES INTO SW WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON FRI
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL USHER IN THE COLDER WEATHER.  MODELS
INDICATE THIS WILL BE A SHARP FRONT. 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOWS TIGHT
THICKNESS/TEMPERATURE PACKING UP TO 700 MB. NAM FRONTOGENSIS IS
STRONG UP THROUGH 850 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE DECENT LIFT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS LOOKED TOO HIGH PREVIOUSLY
THROUGH FRIDAY BUT LOOK MORE REASONABLE NOW.  SO HAVE UPDATED QPF
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND FRI.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
12Z/18Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAK MOIST/CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A COUPLE STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY MARGINAL SO WE
DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...CHANCES ARE
PROBABLY AROUND 5-10 PERCENT FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

SNOW LEVELS ARE PRESENTLY VERY HIGH...WITH TIMBERLINE WEBCAMS SHOWING
RAIN AS HIGH AS 6000-7000 FT ELEVATION. IT WILL BE A MUCH DIFFERENT
STORY FRI NIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS RAPIDLY LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS 925 MB TEMPS CRASHING FROM +9 DEG C LATE FRI AFTERNOON TO
-1 DEG C SIX HOURS LATER. BY OUR STANDARDS...THAT IS A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE DROP. AT THIS POINT...MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SUPPORT
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES REACHING THE NORTH COAST AND VALLEY FLOOR BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW.
GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -7 TO -8 DEG C RANGE...HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
STILL PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW OR GRAUPEL DOWN TO THE
VALLEY FLOOR. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 TO 1000 FT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING WITH
ELEVATION ABOVE THAT. THE HIGHER WEST HILLS OF PORTLAND AND SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SUBURBS MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE
CENTERED EAST OF THE CASCADES BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...WITH SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING
KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GET TO -10 MB OR POSSIBLY STRONGER.
THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR EAST WINDS GUSTING 60-70 MPH THROUGH THE
GORGE...AND 40-45 MPH GUSTS IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. IF MODELS
CONTINUE THIS TREND...A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S IN AND NEAR THE GORGE AND 40S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG EAST WINDS SHOULD
EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS SHOULD CUT DOWN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT...THOUGH
SOME SORT OF EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD LINGER INSIDE THE GORGE. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO CUT OFF SOMEWHERE WEST OF CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. THE 12Z/18Z GFS HAVE
BEEN OUTLIERS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL...IN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OREGON SUN NIGHT/MONDAY THEN
HAVING IT LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE LAST COUPLE RUNS
OF THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP US GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ANOTHER MODERATE SURGE OF EAST WIND TUE/WED. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THERE WAS A LARGE CONSENSUS THAT THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOULD BE DISCOUNTED FOR NOW...WITH OUR FORECAST FOLLOWING
MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IF MODELS START
TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION...WE MAY NEED TO
CONTEND WITH SNOW OR ICE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE.WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE INTERIOR HAS REMAINED LARGELY
STATIONARY WITH MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING AS LOWER CLOUD DECKS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. MEANWHILE...MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. EXPECT BOUNDARY WITH
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION...SO
EXPECT TRENDING TOWARD INCREASINGLY MVFR CIGS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH INCREASING PRECIP
INTENSITY THROUGH FRI MORNING...AND HEAVIER RAIN MAY BRING VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO THE 3-5 SM RANGE. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE REGION ON FRI...BRINGING A SHIFT TO NW WINDS TO NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND 18Z FRI...REACHING THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS BY 06Z SAT. HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE OREGON COAST
RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONTINUES AT THE TERMINAL
AND APPROACHES WITH CIGS 2500-3500 FT RANGE. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. S WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO
W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 00Z-03Z SAT. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST GUSTS TO 25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH FRI MORNING. THERE MAY BE
SHORT PERIODS OF SUB-ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION INSTEAD OF THE RULE. FAVOR THE
NAM/GFS WIND FIELD THROUGH SAT. A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI AND EARLY FRI EVENING
FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE ON
SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE OFFSHORE WIND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
FAVOR THE ECMWF WIND PATTERN.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 10 TO 13 FT RANGE AND WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 FT BY SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW LATER THIS WEEKEND WILL DECREASE WAVE HEIGHT...BUT RESULT IN
VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS. CULLEN/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 280505
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND IS BRINGING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT IN POSITION ONLY SLIGHTLY
AND EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CURRENT
MODELS SHOW NEAR GALES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE
COAST. SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND ADDED HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING TO
THE FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG
SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND TROUGH TO THE NORTH MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE AREA. AS A RESULT EXPECT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THOUGH, GENERALLY ABOVE 6000
FT.

THEN ON SATURDAY, MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL
DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION AND BRINGING COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE 00Z GFS IS SHOWING COOLER AIR ALOFT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL
THE GFS IS THE WARMER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE SREF, NAM AND
ECMWF. OVERALL, EXPECT THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SATURDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL BE LIGHT. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES,
WESTERN FOOTHILL MOUNTAINS, AND SOME EAST SIDE AREAS SUCH AS NEAR
CHEMULT.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...THERE IS WIDESPREAD RAIN
ALONG THE LINE FROM GOLD BEACH NE INTO ROSEBURG AND THEN FURTHER
EAST INTO THE CASCADES. IN THIS AREA MODERATE RAIN WILL BRING CIGS
AND VIS DOWN TO MVFR. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL REMAIN HIGH VFR FROM THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE SOUTH. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
SATURATED ON FRIDAY WITH CIGS COMING DOWN TO MVFR BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON OF FRIDAY. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014...THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE. SOUTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WINDS
AND GALE GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BECOME
CHAOTIC BUILDING TO A VERY STEEP TO STEEP 10 TO 15 FEET. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. SO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER PORTION OF THE WATERS.
SEAS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH A LONG NORTHERLY FETCH, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WAVES AT 8
SECONDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX WITH A DOMINANT FRESH SWELL AT 10
SECONDS WHILE SMALLER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL TRAINS
PERSIST. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE 50 MILE WIDE NEARLY CONSTANT BAND OF PRECIP THAT
EXTEND FROM PORT ORFORD TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ROSEBURG WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MODOC COUNTY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING
AS THE AXIS OF THE JET SLOWLY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATE
TOMORROW MORNING THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A +100 KT JET. 700 MB WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL MIX DOWN
PERIODICALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING
ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE. WITH THE
BROAD UPPER SUPPORT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS TO A NARROW STRIP OF THE COAST AS WELL. THE JET
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER JET
DIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER THIS SECOND JET SHIFTS EAST
BEFORE MAKING IT DOWN TO SOUTHERN OREGON. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
PATTERN EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO A CLOSED LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN LEAVES A PERSISTENT BAND OF PRECIP
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

EXTENDED TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM MODELS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN, AND THE
SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
BEYOND SUNDAY. MUCH OF THIS STEMS FROM THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS ARE
HAVING WITH THE CLOSED LOW WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THE BEHAVIOR
OF A FEATURE LIKE THIS IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN, SO
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT AN
UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IN THE MT SHASTA AREA, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
AGAIN PUSHED BACK THE EVENT BY 12 TO 24 HOURS, BUT HAVE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE LOW AND CHANGED THE PROJECTED COURSE.
TAKING THE TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT, IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW EVENT IS
BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.  THEREFORE, HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF A
HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FROM THE FORECAST.  INSTEAD, IT APPEARS THE
FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE TYPICAL TYPE OF SYSTEM, WITH THE
CLOSED LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST, AND PUSHING
ONSHORE AS AN OPEN TROUGH.

THEREFORE, THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
INFLOW STILL APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO
REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF POPS TO FIT THE NEW FORECAST TRENDS, AND CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.

ONE TOPIC THAT STILL BEARS WATCHING WILL BE THE EAST SIDE AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF COLD AIR BECOMING TRAPPED WITHIN THE VALLEYS AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ICE BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SHOW A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR THIS, BUT IT HAS BEEN AN
ACCOMPANYING FEATURE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR SEVERAL CYCLES. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, AS UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH, BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL SHIFTS.
-BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KPDT 280352
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
752 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENTLY RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN
OREGON. A FRONTAL BAND IS STALLED FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. A VORT MAX MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WILL INCREASE THE SHOWERS IN EASTERN OREGON LATER TONIGHT. A LOW
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IS DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS IS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY EXISTS IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE CREATING SPORADIC SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE TRENDS ARE COVERED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACNW
TONIGHT. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT, WHILE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH INTO WASHINGTON STATE FRIDAY. INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE
IN WASHINGTON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS BECOMING 15 TO
30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS WIND, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE MAIN PORTION
OF THE WASHINGTON SURFACE LOW WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT, WITH MARINE POLAR AIR
BEHIND IT, MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
BEGIN TO FALL EARLY IN THE MORNING SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE INTO
KITTITAS COUNTY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT LATE IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
90

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING AND THEN FALL
THROUGH THE DAY.  THE COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDES SOME LIFT OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MOISTURE
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS HOLD THE MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND THEN JUST WASH IT OUT.  HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE MONDAY TIME FRAME AND HAVE
DECREASED THE CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN FOR THE AREA. ML

TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS TRIES TO LINGER A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST AND HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION WILL END UP BEING CORRECT AT
THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...SINCE IT HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO MAKE A BIT MORE SENSE AS FAR AS
THE GENERAL METEOROLOGICAL SETUP. ASSUMING THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT
IN THIS PERIOD...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER
NOTE...AS WARMER PACIFIC AIR ATTEMPTS TO OVERRIDE THE STUBBORN
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK FREEZING RAIN MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE BASINS OF NORTHERN OREGON AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FREEZING
RAIN COULD BECOME AN ISSUE I DID NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST JUST YET...WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS POSSIBLE HAZARD THOUGH. GENERALLY STAYED UNDER
GUIDANCE WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS GUIDANCE
SEEMED TO UNDERESTIMATE JUST HOW STUBBORN THE COLD ARCTIC ORIGIN AIR
CAN BE IN OUR AREA. 77

AVIATION...00Z TAFS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
FROM CENTRAL OREGON NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR IN
HEAVY RAIN AT KPDT AND KALW FROM 08-11Z AS SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER
RAIN MOVE THROUGH. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME RAIN SHADOWING EAST OF THE CASCADES FOR
KYKM...KRDM AND KBDN. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT
AND WILL INCREASE 15-25KTS REGION WIDE ON FRIDAY. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  61  35  36 /  20  60  80  50
ALW  50  60  37  38 /  30  70  80  50
PSC  48  60  35  39 /  20  30  50  20
YKM  38  54  32  33 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  45  60  36  39 /  20  40  60  20
ELN  38  51  28  29 /  30  40  40  20
RDM  40  56  34  35 /  40  50  70  50
LGD  43  52  38  41 /  40  70  80  70
GCD  42  53  35  36 /  40  60  60  70
DLS  45  55  36  39 /  40  60  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76





000
FXUS66 KPDT 280352
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
752 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENTLY RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN
OREGON. A FRONTAL BAND IS STALLED FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. A VORT MAX MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WILL INCREASE THE SHOWERS IN EASTERN OREGON LATER TONIGHT. A LOW
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IS DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS IS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY EXISTS IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE CREATING SPORADIC SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE TRENDS ARE COVERED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACNW
TONIGHT. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT, WHILE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH INTO WASHINGTON STATE FRIDAY. INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE
IN WASHINGTON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS BECOMING 15 TO
30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS WIND, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE MAIN PORTION
OF THE WASHINGTON SURFACE LOW WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT, WITH MARINE POLAR AIR
BEHIND IT, MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
BEGIN TO FALL EARLY IN THE MORNING SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE INTO
KITTITAS COUNTY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT LATE IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
90

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING AND THEN FALL
THROUGH THE DAY.  THE COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDES SOME LIFT OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MOISTURE
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS HOLD THE MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND THEN JUST WASH IT OUT.  HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE MONDAY TIME FRAME AND HAVE
DECREASED THE CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN FOR THE AREA. ML

TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS TRIES TO LINGER A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST AND HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION WILL END UP BEING CORRECT AT
THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...SINCE IT HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO MAKE A BIT MORE SENSE AS FAR AS
THE GENERAL METEOROLOGICAL SETUP. ASSUMING THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT
IN THIS PERIOD...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER
NOTE...AS WARMER PACIFIC AIR ATTEMPTS TO OVERRIDE THE STUBBORN
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK FREEZING RAIN MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE BASINS OF NORTHERN OREGON AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FREEZING
RAIN COULD BECOME AN ISSUE I DID NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST JUST YET...WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS POSSIBLE HAZARD THOUGH. GENERALLY STAYED UNDER
GUIDANCE WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS GUIDANCE
SEEMED TO UNDERESTIMATE JUST HOW STUBBORN THE COLD ARCTIC ORIGIN AIR
CAN BE IN OUR AREA. 77

AVIATION...00Z TAFS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
FROM CENTRAL OREGON NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR IN
HEAVY RAIN AT KPDT AND KALW FROM 08-11Z AS SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER
RAIN MOVE THROUGH. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME RAIN SHADOWING EAST OF THE CASCADES FOR
KYKM...KRDM AND KBDN. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT
AND WILL INCREASE 15-25KTS REGION WIDE ON FRIDAY. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  61  35  36 /  20  60  80  50
ALW  50  60  37  38 /  30  70  80  50
PSC  48  60  35  39 /  20  30  50  20
YKM  38  54  32  33 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  45  60  36  39 /  20  40  60  20
ELN  38  51  28  29 /  30  40  40  20
RDM  40  56  34  35 /  40  50  70  50
LGD  43  52  38  41 /  40  70  80  70
GCD  42  53  35  36 /  40  60  60  70
DLS  45  55  36  39 /  40  60  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76






000
FXUS66 KPDT 280352
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
752 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENTLY RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN
OREGON. A FRONTAL BAND IS STALLED FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. A VORT MAX MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WILL INCREASE THE SHOWERS IN EASTERN OREGON LATER TONIGHT. A LOW
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IS DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS IS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY EXISTS IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE CREATING SPORADIC SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE TRENDS ARE COVERED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACNW
TONIGHT. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT, WHILE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH INTO WASHINGTON STATE FRIDAY. INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE
IN WASHINGTON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS BECOMING 15 TO
30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS WIND, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE MAIN PORTION
OF THE WASHINGTON SURFACE LOW WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT, WITH MARINE POLAR AIR
BEHIND IT, MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
BEGIN TO FALL EARLY IN THE MORNING SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE INTO
KITTITAS COUNTY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT LATE IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
90

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING AND THEN FALL
THROUGH THE DAY.  THE COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDES SOME LIFT OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MOISTURE
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS HOLD THE MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND THEN JUST WASH IT OUT.  HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE MONDAY TIME FRAME AND HAVE
DECREASED THE CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN FOR THE AREA. ML

TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS TRIES TO LINGER A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST AND HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION WILL END UP BEING CORRECT AT
THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...SINCE IT HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO MAKE A BIT MORE SENSE AS FAR AS
THE GENERAL METEOROLOGICAL SETUP. ASSUMING THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT
IN THIS PERIOD...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER
NOTE...AS WARMER PACIFIC AIR ATTEMPTS TO OVERRIDE THE STUBBORN
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK FREEZING RAIN MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE BASINS OF NORTHERN OREGON AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FREEZING
RAIN COULD BECOME AN ISSUE I DID NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST JUST YET...WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS POSSIBLE HAZARD THOUGH. GENERALLY STAYED UNDER
GUIDANCE WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS GUIDANCE
SEEMED TO UNDERESTIMATE JUST HOW STUBBORN THE COLD ARCTIC ORIGIN AIR
CAN BE IN OUR AREA. 77

AVIATION...00Z TAFS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
FROM CENTRAL OREGON NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR IN
HEAVY RAIN AT KPDT AND KALW FROM 08-11Z AS SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER
RAIN MOVE THROUGH. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME RAIN SHADOWING EAST OF THE CASCADES FOR
KYKM...KRDM AND KBDN. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT
AND WILL INCREASE 15-25KTS REGION WIDE ON FRIDAY. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  61  35  36 /  20  60  80  50
ALW  50  60  37  38 /  30  70  80  50
PSC  48  60  35  39 /  20  30  50  20
YKM  38  54  32  33 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  45  60  36  39 /  20  40  60  20
ELN  38  51  28  29 /  30  40  40  20
RDM  40  56  34  35 /  40  50  70  50
LGD  43  52  38  41 /  40  70  80  70
GCD  42  53  35  36 /  40  60  60  70
DLS  45  55  36  39 /  40  60  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76





000
FXUS66 KPDT 280352
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
752 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENTLY RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN
OREGON. A FRONTAL BAND IS STALLED FROM CENTRAL OREGON TO
NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS. A VORT MAX MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WILL INCREASE THE SHOWERS IN EASTERN OREGON LATER TONIGHT. A LOW
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IS DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS IS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY EXISTS IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE CREATING SPORADIC SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE TRENDS ARE COVERED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  COONFIELD

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 244 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACNW
TONIGHT. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT, WHILE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH INTO WASHINGTON STATE FRIDAY. INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE
IN WASHINGTON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS BECOMING 15 TO
30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS WIND, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE MAIN PORTION
OF THE WASHINGTON SURFACE LOW WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT, WITH MARINE POLAR AIR
BEHIND IT, MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
BEGIN TO FALL EARLY IN THE MORNING SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE INTO
KITTITAS COUNTY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT LATE IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
90

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING AND THEN FALL
THROUGH THE DAY.  THE COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDES SOME LIFT OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MOISTURE
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS HOLD THE MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND THEN JUST WASH IT OUT.  HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE MONDAY TIME FRAME AND HAVE
DECREASED THE CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN FOR THE AREA. ML

TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS TRIES TO LINGER A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST AND HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION WILL END UP BEING CORRECT AT
THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...SINCE IT HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO MAKE A BIT MORE SENSE AS FAR AS
THE GENERAL METEOROLOGICAL SETUP. ASSUMING THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT
IN THIS PERIOD...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER
NOTE...AS WARMER PACIFIC AIR ATTEMPTS TO OVERRIDE THE STUBBORN
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK FREEZING RAIN MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE BASINS OF NORTHERN OREGON AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FREEZING
RAIN COULD BECOME AN ISSUE I DID NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST JUST YET...WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS POSSIBLE HAZARD THOUGH. GENERALLY STAYED UNDER
GUIDANCE WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS GUIDANCE
SEEMED TO UNDERESTIMATE JUST HOW STUBBORN THE COLD ARCTIC ORIGIN AIR
CAN BE IN OUR AREA. 77

AVIATION...00Z TAFS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
FROM CENTRAL OREGON NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR IN
HEAVY RAIN AT KPDT AND KALW FROM 08-11Z AS SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER
RAIN MOVE THROUGH. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME RAIN SHADOWING EAST OF THE CASCADES FOR
KYKM...KRDM AND KBDN. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT
AND WILL INCREASE 15-25KTS REGION WIDE ON FRIDAY. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  61  35  36 /  20  60  80  50
ALW  50  60  37  38 /  30  70  80  50
PSC  48  60  35  39 /  20  30  50  20
YKM  38  54  32  33 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  45  60  36  39 /  20  40  60  20
ELN  38  51  28  29 /  30  40  40  20
RDM  40  56  34  35 /  40  50  70  50
LGD  43  52  38  41 /  40  70  80  70
GCD  42  53  35  36 /  40  60  60  70
DLS  45  55  36  39 /  40  60  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

76/76/76






000
FXUS65 KBOI 280330
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
830 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY...LONG WAVE RIDGE AND MILD WX OVER THE WRN
U.S. AND A STRONG COLD SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN BC.  SATELLITE
SHOWS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BAND /WITH LIGHT PCPN/ QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES.  THE WRN U.S. RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED AND
PUSHED SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE BC TROUGH
COMES IN.  STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY FROM NWRN
MONTANA THROUGH NRN OREGON TO AROUND 43/130 IN THE PACIFIC.  PACIFIC
MOISTURE STILL COMING IN ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL DEVELOP
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND FROPA.
THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR NRN ZONES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SRN
ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  SEVERAL INCHES NEW SNOW WILL FALL IN
MOUNTAIN AREAS BELOW 6000 FEET MSL...LIKE SUMPTER/OR AND MCCALL AND
IDAHO CITY IN IDAHO.  HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO CAN EXPECT 12-18
INCHES.  LOWER VALLEYS INCLUDING THE SNAKE BASIN WILL GET LITTLE IF
ANY NEW SNOW.  BUT RAPID FREEZING ON THE WET ROADS IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT AND TRAVEL SUNDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT DUE TO LOCAL ICE
ON VALLEY ROADS AND NEW SNOW ON MOUNTAIN ROADS.  TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COLDER SUNDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NEW SNOW
COVER.  NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM PASSING SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST AT 35 TO 45 KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING MVFR/IFR
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. SATURDAY AFTERNOON VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO THE NEVADA LINE AND CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. SUNDAY DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL GIVE WAY TO
AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT ON SATURDAY. SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS /THOUGH MAGIC VALLEY WILL SEE
TEMPS REACH 60 AGAIN ON FRIDAY/. MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONCENTRATE OVER EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND MTNS OF SW IDAHO TONIGHT...
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
6K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY DROPPING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO COOLING ALOFT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL RAMP UP
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS FROM UPPER TROUGH INTERACT WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THROUGH FRIDAY THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY /ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...BUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ALL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SE OREGON AND
SW IDAHO. AT THIS TIME HIGHLIGHTS ARE UNNECESSARY AS FORECAST 10+
INCH SNOW TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE 6K FEET MSL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON ARCTIC
AIR RE-INVADING THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.  WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES
SOUTH BENEATH THE MOIST PACIFIC AIR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS SATURDAY EVENING CHANGING TO SNOW AT ALL
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY MUCH DRIER COLD AIR MOVING DOWN FROM
B.C. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING
PACIFIC MOISTURE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS
PROGRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...WHICH IS PREFERRED. BASED ON
THIS SLOWER TIMING...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NOW APPEARS TO
BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP/JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 280330
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
830 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY...LONG WAVE RIDGE AND MILD WX OVER THE WRN
U.S. AND A STRONG COLD SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN BC.  SATELLITE
SHOWS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BAND /WITH LIGHT PCPN/ QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES.  THE WRN U.S. RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED AND
PUSHED SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE BC TROUGH
COMES IN.  STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY FROM NWRN
MONTANA THROUGH NRN OREGON TO AROUND 43/130 IN THE PACIFIC.  PACIFIC
MOISTURE STILL COMING IN ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL DEVELOP
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND FROPA.
THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR NRN ZONES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SRN
ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  SEVERAL INCHES NEW SNOW WILL FALL IN
MOUNTAIN AREAS BELOW 6000 FEET MSL...LIKE SUMPTER/OR AND MCCALL AND
IDAHO CITY IN IDAHO.  HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO CAN EXPECT 12-18
INCHES.  LOWER VALLEYS INCLUDING THE SNAKE BASIN WILL GET LITTLE IF
ANY NEW SNOW.  BUT RAPID FREEZING ON THE WET ROADS IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT AND TRAVEL SUNDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT DUE TO LOCAL ICE
ON VALLEY ROADS AND NEW SNOW ON MOUNTAIN ROADS.  TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COLDER SUNDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NEW SNOW
COVER.  NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM PASSING SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST AT 35 TO 45 KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING MVFR/IFR
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. SATURDAY AFTERNOON VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO THE NEVADA LINE AND CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. SUNDAY DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL GIVE WAY TO
AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT ON SATURDAY. SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS /THOUGH MAGIC VALLEY WILL SEE
TEMPS REACH 60 AGAIN ON FRIDAY/. MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONCENTRATE OVER EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND MTNS OF SW IDAHO TONIGHT...
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
6K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY DROPPING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO COOLING ALOFT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL RAMP UP
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS FROM UPPER TROUGH INTERACT WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THROUGH FRIDAY THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY /ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...BUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ALL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SE OREGON AND
SW IDAHO. AT THIS TIME HIGHLIGHTS ARE UNNECESSARY AS FORECAST 10+
INCH SNOW TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE 6K FEET MSL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON ARCTIC
AIR RE-INVADING THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.  WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES
SOUTH BENEATH THE MOIST PACIFIC AIR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS SATURDAY EVENING CHANGING TO SNOW AT ALL
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY MUCH DRIER COLD AIR MOVING DOWN FROM
B.C. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING
PACIFIC MOISTURE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS
PROGRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...WHICH IS PREFERRED. BASED ON
THIS SLOWER TIMING...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NOW APPEARS TO
BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP/JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS66 KPQR 272322
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
321 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STALLED OVER WESTERN OREGON AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...LIKELY CAUSING
RAIN TO FILL IN AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HILLS AND ABOVE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND ACROSS THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY ATTEMPT TO
SPREAD MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PLENTY OF WEATHER TO TALK
ABOUT...BUT BEFORE TALKING TURKEY WE WOULD LIKE TO SEND OUR BEST
WISHES TO EVERYONE ON THIS THANKSGIVING DAY.

A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS DRAPED OVER WESTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A FAIRLY STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES BUT MORE SHOWERY WEATHER TO AREAS NORTH AND
WEST. THIS FRONT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...
AS MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OUTRAN THE FRONT EARLIER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER ANOTHER VORTMAX IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRI...LIKELY CAUSING RAIN TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN. DESPITE THE WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...SOUTH-NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS REPORTING GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...AS SOME LOCATIONS IN
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA HAVE SEEN THEIR TEMPS FALL FROM THE LOWER
30S THROUGH 20S AND INTO THE TEENS AS TODAY HAS PROGRESSED. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...MOVING ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

12Z/18Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAK MOIST/CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A COUPLE STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY MARGINAL SO WE
DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...CHANCES ARE
PROBABLY AROUND 5-10 PERCENT FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

SNOW LEVELS ARE PRESENTLY VERY HIGH...WITH TIMBERLINE WEBCAMS SHOWING
RAIN AS HIGH AS 6000-7000 FT ELEVATION. IT WILL BE A MUCH DIFFERENT
STORY FRI NIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS RAPIDLY LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS 925 MB TEMPS CRASHING FROM +9 DEG C LATE FRI AFTERNOON TO
-1 DEG C SIX HOURS LATER. BY OUR STANDARDS...THAT IS A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE DROP. AT THIS POINT...MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SUPPORT
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES REACHING THE NORTH COAST AND VALLEY FLOOR BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW.
GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -7 TO -8 DEG C RANGE...HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
STILL PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW OR GRAUPEL DOWN TO THE
VALLEY FLOOR. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 TO 1000 FT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING WITH
ELEVATION ABOVE THAT. THE HIGHER WEST HILLS OF PORTLAND AND SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SUBURBS MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE
CENTERED EAST OF THE CASCADES BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...WITH SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING
KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GET TO -10 MB OR POSSIBLY STRONGER.
THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR EAST WINDS GUSTING 60-70 MPH THROUGH THE
GORGE...AND 40-45 MPH GUSTS IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. IF MODELS
CONTINUE THIS TREND...A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S IN AND NEAR THE GORGE AND 40S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG EAST WINDS SHOULD
EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS SHOULD CUT DOWN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT...THOUGH
SOME SORT OF EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD LINGER INSIDE THE GORGE. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO CUT OFF SOMEWHERE WEST OF CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. THE 12Z/18Z GFS HAVE
BEEN OUTLIERS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL...IN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OREGON SUN NIGHT/MONDAY THEN
HAVING IT LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE LAST COUPLE RUNS
OF THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP US GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ANOTHER MODERATE SURGE OF EAST WIND TUE/WED. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THERE WAS A LARGE CONSENSUS THAT THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOULD BE DISCOUNTED FOR NOW...WITH OUR FORECAST FOLLOWING
MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IF MODELS START
TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION...WE MAY NEED TO
CONTEND WITH SNOW OR ICE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS
LOWER-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IFR TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST AND A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR IN THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE INTERIOR TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THUS...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE OREGON COAST
RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIP INTENSITY TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR HAS SPREAD OVER THE TERMINAL AND
APPROACHES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI MORNING. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WATERS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUSTS TO 25
KT AT TIMES THROUGH FRI MORNING. THERE MAY BE SHORT PERIODS OF
SUB-ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL
BE THE EXCEPTION INSTEAD OF THE RULE. FAVOR THE NAM AND GFS WIND
FIELD THROUGH SAT. A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI AND EARLY FRI EVENING FOR
CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE ON
SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE OFFSHORE WIND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
FAVOR THE ECMWF WIND PATTERN. GFS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY MAJOR MODEL
THAT MOVES A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP IT NEARLY
STATIONARY.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 10 TO 13 FT RANGE AND WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS THEN CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO SATURDAY...
THEN FALL BELOW 10 FT BY SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW LATER THIS WEEKEND
WILL KNOCK DOWN THE SEAS...BUT RESULT IN VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS.
WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 272322
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
321 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STALLED OVER WESTERN OREGON AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...LIKELY CAUSING
RAIN TO FILL IN AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HILLS AND ABOVE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY... BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE AND ACROSS THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA. A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY ATTEMPT TO
SPREAD MOISTURE UP OVER THE COLD AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PLENTY OF WEATHER TO TALK
ABOUT...BUT BEFORE TALKING TURKEY WE WOULD LIKE TO SEND OUR BEST
WISHES TO EVERYONE ON THIS THANKSGIVING DAY.

A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS DRAPED OVER WESTERN OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A FAIRLY STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES BUT MORE SHOWERY WEATHER TO AREAS NORTH AND
WEST. THIS FRONT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...
AS MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OUTRAN THE FRONT EARLIER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER ANOTHER VORTMAX IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRI...LIKELY CAUSING RAIN TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN. DESPITE THE WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...SOUTH-NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS REPORTING GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...AS SOME LOCATIONS IN
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA HAVE SEEN THEIR TEMPS FALL FROM THE LOWER
30S THROUGH 20S AND INTO THE TEENS AS TODAY HAS PROGRESSED. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...MOVING ACROSS SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

12Z/18Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAK MOIST/CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A COUPLE STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY MARGINAL SO WE
DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...CHANCES ARE
PROBABLY AROUND 5-10 PERCENT FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

SNOW LEVELS ARE PRESENTLY VERY HIGH...WITH TIMBERLINE WEBCAMS SHOWING
RAIN AS HIGH AS 6000-7000 FT ELEVATION. IT WILL BE A MUCH DIFFERENT
STORY FRI NIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS RAPIDLY LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS 925 MB TEMPS CRASHING FROM +9 DEG C LATE FRI AFTERNOON TO
-1 DEG C SIX HOURS LATER. BY OUR STANDARDS...THAT IS A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE DROP. AT THIS POINT...MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SUPPORT
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES REACHING THE NORTH COAST AND VALLEY FLOOR BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW.
GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -7 TO -8 DEG C RANGE...HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
STILL PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW OR GRAUPEL DOWN TO THE
VALLEY FLOOR. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 TO 1000 FT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING WITH
ELEVATION ABOVE THAT. THE HIGHER WEST HILLS OF PORTLAND AND SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SUBURBS MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MORE
CENTERED EAST OF THE CASCADES BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...WITH SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING
KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GET TO -10 MB OR POSSIBLY STRONGER.
THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR EAST WINDS GUSTING 60-70 MPH THROUGH THE
GORGE...AND 40-45 MPH GUSTS IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. IF MODELS
CONTINUE THIS TREND...A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
SAT/SUN...WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S IN AND NEAR THE GORGE AND 40S
MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG EAST WINDS SHOULD
EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ERODE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THIS SHOULD CUT DOWN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT...THOUGH
SOME SORT OF EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD LINGER INSIDE THE GORGE. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO CUT OFF SOMEWHERE WEST OF CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. THE 12Z/18Z GFS HAVE
BEEN OUTLIERS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL...IN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OREGON SUN NIGHT/MONDAY THEN
HAVING IT LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE LAST COUPLE RUNS
OF THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP US GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
ANOTHER MODERATE SURGE OF EAST WIND TUE/WED. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THERE WAS A LARGE CONSENSUS THAT THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOULD BE DISCOUNTED FOR NOW...WITH OUR FORECAST FOLLOWING
MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IF MODELS START
TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION...WE MAY NEED TO
CONTEND WITH SNOW OR ICE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA
GORGE.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS
LOWER-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IFR TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST AND A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR IN THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE INTERIOR TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THUS...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE OREGON COAST
RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIP INTENSITY TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR HAS SPREAD OVER THE TERMINAL AND
APPROACHES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI MORNING. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WATERS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUSTS TO 25
KT AT TIMES THROUGH FRI MORNING. THERE MAY BE SHORT PERIODS OF
SUB-ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL
BE THE EXCEPTION INSTEAD OF THE RULE. FAVOR THE NAM AND GFS WIND
FIELD THROUGH SAT. A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI AND EARLY FRI EVENING FOR
CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE ON
SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIKELY EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE OFFSHORE WIND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
FAVOR THE ECMWF WIND PATTERN. GFS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY MAJOR MODEL
THAT MOVES A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP IT NEARLY
STATIONARY.

SEAS HOLDING IN THE 10 TO 13 FT RANGE AND WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS THEN CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO SATURDAY...
THEN FALL BELOW 10 FT BY SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW LATER THIS WEEKEND
WILL KNOCK DOWN THE SEAS...BUT RESULT IN VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS.
WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 272256
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
256 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE 50 MILE WIDE NEARLY CONSTANT BAND OF PRECIP THAT
EXTEND FROM PORT ORFORD TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ROSEBURG WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MODOC COUNTY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING
AS THE AXIS OF THE JET SLOWLY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATE
TOMORROW MORNING THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A +100 KT JET. 700 MB WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL MIX DOWN
PERIODICALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING
ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE. WITH THE
BROAD UPPER SUPPORT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS TO A NARROW STRIP OF THE COAST AS WELL. THE JET
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER JET
DIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER THIS SECOND JET SHIFTS EAST
BEFORE MAKING IT DOWN TO SOUTHERN OREGON. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
PATTERN EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO A CLOSED LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN LEAVES A PERSISTENT BAND OF PRECIP
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.EXTENDED TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM MODELS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN, AND THE
SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
BEYOND SUNDAY. MUCH OF THIS STEMS FROM THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS ARE
HAVING WITH THE CLOSED LOW WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THE BEHAVIOR
OF A FEATURE LIKE THIS IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN, SO
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT AN
UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IN THE MT SHASTA AREA, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
AGAIN PUSHED BACK THE EVENT BY 12 TO 24 HOURS, BUT HAVE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE LOW AND CHANGED THE PROJECTED COURSE.
TAKING THE TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT, IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW EVENT IS
BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.  THEREFORE, HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF A
HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FROM THE FORECAST.  INSTEAD, IT APPEARS THE
FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE TYPICAL TYPE OF SYSTEM, WITH THE
CLOSED LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST, AND PUSHING
ONSHORE AS AN OPEN TROUGH.

THEREFORE, THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
INFLOW STILL APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO
REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF POPS TO FIT THE NEW FORECAST TRENDS, AND CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.

ONE TOPIC THAT STILL BEARS WATCHING WILL BE THE EAST SIDE AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF COLD AIR BECOMING TRAPPED WITHIN THE VALLEYS AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ICE BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SHOW A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR THIS, BUT IT HAS BEEN AN
ACCOMPANYING FEATURE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR SEVERAL CYCLES. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, AS UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH, BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL SHIFTS.
-BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED
OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON TODAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN MANY OF THE
VALLEYS IN THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY, BUT THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. OVERALL, THERE WILL
BE LIGHT RAIN WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AND WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT TO
MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE IN ALL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS IN VALLEYS
WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN TO A MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILING AND LOCAL
IFR THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THEN A DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND PUSH THE FRONT INLAND WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS.

-BPN/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014...THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE. SOUTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT. SEAS WILL BECOME CHAOTIC
BUILDING TO A STEEP 10 TO 15 FEET. ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE ON FRIDAY
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SURGE UPWARD AGAIN WITH SEAS REACHING A PEAK IN
THE MORNING. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER PORTION OF THE
WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH A LONG NORTHERLY FETCH, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WAVES AT
8 SECONDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX WITH A DOMINANT FRESH SWELL AT 10
SECONDS WHILE SMALLER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL TRAINS PERSIST.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
/FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$



000
FXUS66 KMFR 272256
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
256 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE 50 MILE WIDE NEARLY CONSTANT BAND OF PRECIP THAT
EXTEND FROM PORT ORFORD TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ROSEBURG WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MODOC COUNTY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING
AS THE AXIS OF THE JET SLOWLY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATE
TOMORROW MORNING THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A +100 KT JET. 700 MB WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL MIX DOWN
PERIODICALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING
ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE. WITH THE
BROAD UPPER SUPPORT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS TO A NARROW STRIP OF THE COAST AS WELL. THE JET
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER JET
DIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER THIS SECOND JET SHIFTS EAST
BEFORE MAKING IT DOWN TO SOUTHERN OREGON. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
PATTERN EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO A CLOSED LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN LEAVES A PERSISTENT BAND OF PRECIP
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.EXTENDED TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM MODELS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN, AND THE
SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
BEYOND SUNDAY. MUCH OF THIS STEMS FROM THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS ARE
HAVING WITH THE CLOSED LOW WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THE BEHAVIOR
OF A FEATURE LIKE THIS IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN, SO
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT AN
UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IN THE MT SHASTA AREA, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
AGAIN PUSHED BACK THE EVENT BY 12 TO 24 HOURS, BUT HAVE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE LOW AND CHANGED THE PROJECTED COURSE.
TAKING THE TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT, IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW EVENT IS
BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.  THEREFORE, HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF A
HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FROM THE FORECAST.  INSTEAD, IT APPEARS THE
FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE TYPICAL TYPE OF SYSTEM, WITH THE
CLOSED LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST, AND PUSHING
ONSHORE AS AN OPEN TROUGH.

THEREFORE, THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
INFLOW STILL APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO
REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF POPS TO FIT THE NEW FORECAST TRENDS, AND CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.

ONE TOPIC THAT STILL BEARS WATCHING WILL BE THE EAST SIDE AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF COLD AIR BECOMING TRAPPED WITHIN THE VALLEYS AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ICE BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SHOW A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR THIS, BUT IT HAS BEEN AN
ACCOMPANYING FEATURE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR SEVERAL CYCLES. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, AS UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH, BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL SHIFTS.
-BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED
OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON TODAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN MANY OF THE
VALLEYS IN THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY, BUT THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. OVERALL, THERE WILL
BE LIGHT RAIN WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AND WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT TO
MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE IN ALL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS IN VALLEYS
WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN TO A MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILING AND LOCAL
IFR THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THEN A DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND PUSH THE FRONT INLAND WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS.

-BPN/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014...THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE. SOUTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT. SEAS WILL BECOME CHAOTIC
BUILDING TO A STEEP 10 TO 15 FEET. ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE ON FRIDAY
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SURGE UPWARD AGAIN WITH SEAS REACHING A PEAK IN
THE MORNING. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER PORTION OF THE
WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH A LONG NORTHERLY FETCH, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WAVES AT
8 SECONDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX WITH A DOMINANT FRESH SWELL AT 10
SECONDS WHILE SMALLER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL TRAINS PERSIST.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
/FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KPDT 272244
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PACNW
TONIGHT. AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT, WHILE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH INTO WASHINGTON STATE FRIDAY. INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE
IN WASHINGTON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS BECOMING 15 TO
30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS WIND, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE MAIN PORTION
OF THE WASHINGTON SURFACE LOW WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT, WITH MARINE POLAR AIR
BEHIND IT, MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO
BEGIN TO FALL EARLY IN THE MORNING SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE INTO
KITTITAS COUNTY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT LATE IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
90

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING AND THEN FALL
THROUGH THE DAY.  THE COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDES SOME LIFT OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MOISTURE
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS HOLD THE MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND THEN JUST WASH IT OUT.  HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE MONDAY TIME FRAME AND HAVE
DECREASED THE CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN FOR THE AREA. ML

TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS TRIES TO LINGER A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST AND HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION WILL END UP BEING CORRECT AT
THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...SINCE IT HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO MAKE A BIT MORE SENSE AS FAR AS
THE GENERAL METEOROLOGICAL SETUP. ASSUMING THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT
IN THIS PERIOD...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER
NOTE...AS WARMER PACIFIC AIR ATTEMPTS TO OVERRIDE THE STUBBORN
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK FREEZING RAIN MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE BASINS OF NORTHERN OREGON AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH FREEZING
RAIN COULD BECOME AN ISSUE I DID NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST JUST YET...WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS POSSIBLE HAZARD THOUGH. GENERALLY STAYED UNDER
GUIDANCE WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS GUIDANCE
SEEMED TO UNDERESTIMATE JUST HOW STUBBORN THE COLD ARCTIC ORIGIN AIR
CAN BE IN OUR AREA. 77

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
FROM CENTRAL OREGON NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR IN
HEAVY RAIN AT KPDT AND KALW FROM 08-11Z AS SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER
RAIN MOVE THROUGH. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME RAINSHADOWING EAST OF THE CASCADES FOR
KYKM...KRDM AND KBDN. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT
AND WILL INCREASE 15-25KTS REGIONWIDE ON FRIDAY. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  61  35  36 /  20  60  80  50
ALW  50  60  37  38 /  30  70  80  50
PSC  48  60  35  39 /  20  30  50  20
YKM  38  54  32  33 /  20  30  30  20
HRI  45  60  36  39 /  20  40  60  20
ELN  38  51  28  29 /  30  40  40  20
RDM  40  56  34  35 /  40  50  70  50
LGD  43  52  38  41 /  40  70  80  70
GCD  42  53  35  36 /  40  60  60  70
DLS  45  55  36  39 /  40  60  70  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/93/77/93







000
FXUS65 KBOI 272210
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL GIVE WAY
TO AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT ON SATURDAY. SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS /THOUGH MAGIC VALLEY
WILL SEE TEMPS REACH 60 AGAIN ON FRIDAY/. MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONCENTRATE OVER EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND MTNS
OF SW IDAHO TONIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY
DROPPING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO COOLING ALOFT.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL RAMP UP STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DYNAMICS FROM UPPER TROUGH INTERACT WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC. THROUGH FRIDAY THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY /ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...BUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
AT THIS TIME HIGHLIGHTS ARE UNNECESSARY AS FORECAST 10+ INCH SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE 6K FEET MSL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON
ARCTIC AIR RE-INVADING THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC
AIR PUSHES SOUTH BENEATH THE MOIST PACIFIC AIR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BEGIN AS RAIN IN THE VALLEYS SATURDAY EVENING CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY MUCH DRIER COLD AIR MOVING DOWN
FROM B.C. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING
PACIFIC MOISTURE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS
PROGRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...WHICH IS PREFERRED. BASED ON
THIS SLOWER TIMING...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NOW APPEARS TO
BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SOUTH TO THE NEVADA
BORDER. OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND BAKER
COUNTY EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN SNOW ABOVE 5K FT MSL
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH
TO A KREO-KMUO-FAIRFIELD LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...EAST
TO SOUTH 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING MVFR/IFR
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. SATURDAY AFTERNOON VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO THE NEVADA LINE AND CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. SUNDAY DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 272210
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL GIVE WAY
TO AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT ON SATURDAY. SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS /THOUGH MAGIC VALLEY
WILL SEE TEMPS REACH 60 AGAIN ON FRIDAY/. MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONCENTRATE OVER EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND MTNS
OF SW IDAHO TONIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY
DROPPING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO COOLING ALOFT.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL RAMP UP STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DYNAMICS FROM UPPER TROUGH INTERACT WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC. THROUGH FRIDAY THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY /ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...BUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
AT THIS TIME HIGHLIGHTS ARE UNNECESSARY AS FORECAST 10+ INCH SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE 6K FEET MSL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON
ARCTIC AIR RE-INVADING THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC
AIR PUSHES SOUTH BENEATH THE MOIST PACIFIC AIR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BEGIN AS RAIN IN THE VALLEYS SATURDAY EVENING CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY MUCH DRIER COLD AIR MOVING DOWN
FROM B.C. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING
PACIFIC MOISTURE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS
PROGRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...WHICH IS PREFERRED. BASED ON
THIS SLOWER TIMING...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NOW APPEARS TO
BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SOUTH TO THE NEVADA
BORDER. OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND BAKER
COUNTY EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN SNOW ABOVE 5K FT MSL
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH
TO A KREO-KMUO-FAIRFIELD LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...EAST
TO SOUTH 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING MVFR/IFR
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. SATURDAY AFTERNOON VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO THE NEVADA LINE AND CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. SUNDAY DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS66 KPDT 271759
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
959 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...REGION TO REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE PACNW. AS SUCH WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN OREGON.
HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST DUE TO
ADDITIONAL TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY DUE TO A STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GRANDE RONDE AND BAKER VALLEYS.
ALSO BREEZY DOWNSLOPE INDUCED WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN CENTRAL OREGON
AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY. FOG CONTINUES TO LIFT IN THE KITTITAS AND THE
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. UPDATES INCLUDED
INCREASING WINDS IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY, AND
ADJUSTING PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGH TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS IN SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MAIN CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING WITH POPS
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TERRAIN FLOOR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA BRINGS AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH TAKES SHAPE NEAR 130-140W ON SUNDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS REGION
WITH CIGS AOA 5K FT AGL TO KBDN, KRDM, KPDT AND KALW AFTER 27/20Z.
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN HEAVY
RAIN AT KPDT AND KALW BETWEEN 08-12Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 15-25
KTS WILL CONTINUE JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH 23Z WITH
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS ELSEWHERE. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  45  59  34 /  20  20  60  80
ALW  62  48  58  36 /  20  20  70  80
PSC  61  45  60  35 /  10  20  30  50
YKM  57  36  53  27 /  10  20  30  30
HRI  58  45  60  35 /  20  20  40  60
ELN  50  37  52  27 /  20  30  40  30
RDM  58  37  58  33 /  20  20  50  70
LGD  57  40  51  36 /  30  30  70  80
GCD  57  40  51  35 /  20  40  60  70
DLS  60  44  56  37 /  20  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/93








000
FXUS66 KPDT 271759
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
959 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...REGION TO REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE PACNW. AS SUCH WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN OREGON.
HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST DUE TO
ADDITIONAL TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY DUE TO A STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GRANDE RONDE AND BAKER VALLEYS.
ALSO BREEZY DOWNSLOPE INDUCED WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN CENTRAL OREGON
AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY. FOG CONTINUES TO LIFT IN THE KITTITAS AND THE
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. UPDATES INCLUDED
INCREASING WINDS IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY, AND
ADJUSTING PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGH TEMPS. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS IN SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MAIN CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING WITH POPS
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TERRAIN FLOOR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA BRINGS AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH TAKES SHAPE NEAR 130-140W ON SUNDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS REGION
WITH CIGS AOA 5K FT AGL TO KBDN, KRDM, KPDT AND KALW AFTER 27/20Z.
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN HEAVY
RAIN AT KPDT AND KALW BETWEEN 08-12Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 15-25
KTS WILL CONTINUE JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH 23Z WITH
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS ELSEWHERE. ML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  45  59  34 /  20  20  60  80
ALW  62  48  58  36 /  20  20  70  80
PSC  61  45  60  35 /  10  20  30  50
YKM  57  36  53  27 /  10  20  30  30
HRI  58  45  60  35 /  20  20  40  60
ELN  50  37  52  27 /  20  30  40  30
RDM  58  37  58  33 /  20  20  50  70
LGD  57  40  51  36 /  30  30  70  80
GCD  57  40  51  35 /  20  40  60  70
DLS  60  44  56  37 /  20  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/99/93







000
FXUS66 KPQR 271752
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
950 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT AND FRI. THIS
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN EARLY FRI. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER WEATHER. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. HIGH PRES OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE
FLOW OFFSHORE BY SUN FOR DRY AND COLD WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING
UP FROM THE S SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE...AS IT APPEARS TO BE TRACKING WELL.

THE 12Z SALEM SOUNDING WAS NOTABLE IN SHOWING A BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...WITH ABOUT 150-200 J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE DUE THE MILD AND
MOIST AIR MASS BETWEEN 850-700 MB. SURE ENOUGH...THERE ARE SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING DETECTED NEAR THE SOUTH OREGON COAST. IT
APPEARS THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN THERE...THOUGH IT WOULD
NOT BE A COMPLETE SURPRISE TO SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
SOUTH OF SALEM TODAY. 12Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SKINNY
CAPE INTO FRIDAY...WHEN THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG/AHEAD AS THE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PROVIDES A BIT OF
EXTRA LIFT. THERE IS ALSO SOME FAIRLY DECENT SHEAR WITHIN THIS AREA
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. HAVE NOT ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST
YET...BUT WE MAY ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FRIDAY WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS.

AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW ELEVATION SNOW LATER FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT EVENING...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW CONTINUES TO REFLECT
CURRENT THINKING...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 327 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE KEEPING EXCEPTIONALLY MILD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT CURRENT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE
RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. HOWEVER...THE
PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL BE COMING TO AN END VERY SHORTLY.

THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING IS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE. LOOKING AT THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT IS
APPARENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HAS MOVED
OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE FRONT CAN BE
MADE OUT ON SATELLITE JUST OFFSHORE AROUND BUOY 29. WITH ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE REMAINING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALOFT...THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE IS DEFINITELY ON THE
PATCHIER SIDE. THE RAIN HAS BECOME A BIT STEADIER OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ALONG THE N COAST AND COAST RANGE...BUT MOST SITES ARE ONLY
PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR. STILL...
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT STEADY RAIN AS THE FRONT
PUSHES ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST THAT WE ARE WATCHING THIS MORNING IS A
PERSISTENT STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DRIVE THIS BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS A SHARP COLD
FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL OREGON IS
FCST TO PUSH NORTHWARD AGAIN FRI MORNING. BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES...EXPECT RAINFALL TO STEADILY INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES FRI. AS THE SHARP COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH DIVES
THROUGH THE REGION LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SAT TO PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR POST FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHILE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BASED ON MODEL 850MB TEMPS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES...IT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO AFFECT THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AT TIMES ON SAT. THE TEMP AND THICKNESS INDICATORS
ARE ONLY MARGINAL AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS
JUST HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT
HIGH THAT THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLAKES. AT
ANY RATE...WITH THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT ROAD SURFACES WILL BE ABLE TO COOL FAST ENOUGH FOR
THERE TO BE MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS. PYLE


LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS SHOWERS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...  WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY
GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS
AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY A MIX OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST...AND VFR OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY...WITH PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH
AS THE OREGON COAST RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADES
WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIP
INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 16Z...BUT STILL EXPECT
MVFR TO BE THE PREDOMINANT CATEGORY AFTER 18Z. LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL FLIGHT CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. 12Z SALEM
UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KPDX INDICATED SE-S
WIND OF AROUND 10 KT AT THE SURFACE...BUT SW WIND 35-40 KT AT
FL020. THIS HAS PRODUCED LLWS NEAR THE AIR FIELD SO HAVE INCLUDED
IT IN THE TAF FOR THIS MORNING. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...GALE FORCE WIND HAS DIMINISHED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SPEEDS. MODELS SUGGEST GUSTS TO 25 KT AT TIMES MOST OF THE DAY.
THERE MAY BE SHORT PERIOD OF SUB-ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. A
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT...WILL
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI AND EARLY FRI EVENING
FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE ON
SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROBABLY OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
VARIETY. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

SEAS ARE UP TO 10 TO 13 FT THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN IN THAT
RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO
SATURDAY...THEN FALL BELOW 10 FT BY SUNDAY. SEAS TODAY WILL BE
CHOPPY WITH AROUND 8 SECOND PERIODS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PERIODS
WILL LENGTHEN TO AROUND 14 SECONDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
SHIFT AND BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH PERIODS AND 10 OR 11 SECONDS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PST FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 271752
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
950 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT AND FRI. THIS
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN EARLY FRI. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER WEATHER. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. HIGH PRES OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE
FLOW OFFSHORE BY SUN FOR DRY AND COLD WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING
UP FROM THE S SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MORNING UPDATE...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE...AS IT APPEARS TO BE TRACKING WELL.

THE 12Z SALEM SOUNDING WAS NOTABLE IN SHOWING A BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...WITH ABOUT 150-200 J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE DUE THE MILD AND
MOIST AIR MASS BETWEEN 850-700 MB. SURE ENOUGH...THERE ARE SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING DETECTED NEAR THE SOUTH OREGON COAST. IT
APPEARS THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN THERE...THOUGH IT WOULD
NOT BE A COMPLETE SURPRISE TO SEE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
SOUTH OF SALEM TODAY. 12Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SKINNY
CAPE INTO FRIDAY...WHEN THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG/AHEAD AS THE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PROVIDES A BIT OF
EXTRA LIFT. THERE IS ALSO SOME FAIRLY DECENT SHEAR WITHIN THIS AREA
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. HAVE NOT ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST
YET...BUT WE MAY ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FRIDAY WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS.

AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW ELEVATION SNOW LATER FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT EVENING...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW CONTINUES TO REFLECT
CURRENT THINKING...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.  WEAGLE

/PREV DISC ISSUED 327 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE KEEPING EXCEPTIONALLY MILD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHWEST OREGON
THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT CURRENT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE
RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. HOWEVER...THE
PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL BE COMING TO AN END VERY SHORTLY.

THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING IS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE. LOOKING AT THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT IS
APPARENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HAS MOVED
OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE FRONT CAN BE
MADE OUT ON SATELLITE JUST OFFSHORE AROUND BUOY 29. WITH ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE REMAINING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALOFT...THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE IS DEFINITELY ON THE
PATCHIER SIDE. THE RAIN HAS BECOME A BIT STEADIER OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ALONG THE N COAST AND COAST RANGE...BUT MOST SITES ARE ONLY
PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR. STILL...
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT STEADY RAIN AS THE FRONT
PUSHES ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST THAT WE ARE WATCHING THIS MORNING IS A
PERSISTENT STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DRIVE THIS BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS A SHARP COLD
FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL OREGON IS
FCST TO PUSH NORTHWARD AGAIN FRI MORNING. BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES...EXPECT RAINFALL TO STEADILY INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES FRI. AS THE SHARP COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH DIVES
THROUGH THE REGION LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SAT TO PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR POST FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHILE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BASED ON MODEL 850MB TEMPS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES...IT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO AFFECT THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AT TIMES ON SAT. THE TEMP AND THICKNESS INDICATORS
ARE ONLY MARGINAL AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS
JUST HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT
HIGH THAT THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLAKES. AT
ANY RATE...WITH THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT ROAD SURFACES WILL BE ABLE TO COOL FAST ENOUGH FOR
THERE TO BE MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS. PYLE


LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS SHOWERS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...  WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY
GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS
AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY A MIX OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST...AND VFR OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY...WITH PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH
AS THE OREGON COAST RANGE...SW WA WILLAPA HILLS AND THE CASCADES
WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIP
INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 16Z...BUT STILL EXPECT
MVFR TO BE THE PREDOMINANT CATEGORY AFTER 18Z. LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL FLIGHT CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. 12Z SALEM
UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KPDX INDICATED SE-S
WIND OF AROUND 10 KT AT THE SURFACE...BUT SW WIND 35-40 KT AT
FL020. THIS HAS PRODUCED LLWS NEAR THE AIR FIELD SO HAVE INCLUDED
IT IN THE TAF FOR THIS MORNING. WEISHAAR

&&

.MARINE...GALE FORCE WIND HAS DIMINISHED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SPEEDS. MODELS SUGGEST GUSTS TO 25 KT AT TIMES MOST OF THE DAY.
THERE MAY BE SHORT PERIOD OF SUB-ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. A
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT...WILL
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI AND EARLY FRI EVENING
FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE ON
SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROBABLY OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
VARIETY. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

SEAS ARE UP TO 10 TO 13 FT THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN IN THAT
RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO
SATURDAY...THEN FALL BELOW 10 FT BY SUNDAY. SEAS TODAY WILL BE
CHOPPY WITH AROUND 8 SECOND PERIODS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PERIODS
WILL LENGTHEN TO AROUND 14 SECONDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
SHIFT AND BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH PERIODS AND 10 OR 11 SECONDS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM
     PST FRIDAY.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 271649
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
949 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS SHOWING A
WEAKNESS MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW. SHOWERS HAVE FORMED
IN THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THIS MORNING...ABOVE THE SURFACE
INVERSION WHICH EXTENDS TO ABOUT 5K FEET MSL AS SEEN ON THE 12Z
KBOI SOUNDING. THIS WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO
EASTERN IDAHO BY LATE MORNING. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WILL LAY
ACROSS BAKER AND NORTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON AND
THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO. THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP SHADOW
MUCH OF THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH OROGRAPHIC FLOW
INTO THE BOISE MTNS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WHICH FULLY MIX. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...BUT HAVE MADE
MINOR UPDATES TO THE POPS AND WINDS FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY UNDER BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS.
NORTH OF A KBKE-KLLJ LINE AFTER 18Z DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS
BY 00Z. SNOW LEVEL 6500 FT MSL NEAR KMYL TO 9000 FT MSL ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER. MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF HARNEY AND
MALHEUR COUNTIES AND FROM THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SOUTHEAST OF KBOI
TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALOFT...A WEAKENING RIDGE
AXIS IS PASSING OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW SW
FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION IN
THE SHORT TERM. AFTER A VERY WARM WED...THANKSGIVING WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS MILD...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...MORE OR LESS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BURNS TO BOISE TO
FAIRFIELD. SNOW LEVEL RANGES FROM AROUND 8000 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO
6500 FEET IN THE NORTH TODAY...AND WILL COME DOWN TO A RANGE OF
FROM AROUND 7500 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO AROUND 5000 FEET IN THE
NORTH TOMORROW. TOMORROW...THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH
LIKE TODAY...BUT THE LINE WILL CREEP SOUTH IN SE OREGON LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SE OREGON.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE TIMING OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IS VERY LOW AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE HANDLING OF THE CUTOFF LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA
IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 271649
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
949 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS SHOWING A
WEAKNESS MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW. SHOWERS HAVE FORMED
IN THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THIS MORNING...ABOVE THE SURFACE
INVERSION WHICH EXTENDS TO ABOUT 5K FEET MSL AS SEEN ON THE 12Z
KBOI SOUNDING. THIS WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO
EASTERN IDAHO BY LATE MORNING. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WILL LAY
ACROSS BAKER AND NORTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON AND
THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO. THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP SHADOW
MUCH OF THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH OROGRAPHIC FLOW
INTO THE BOISE MTNS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WHICH FULLY MIX. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...BUT HAVE MADE
MINOR UPDATES TO THE POPS AND WINDS FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY UNDER BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS.
NORTH OF A KBKE-KLLJ LINE AFTER 18Z DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS
BY 00Z. SNOW LEVEL 6500 FT MSL NEAR KMYL TO 9000 FT MSL ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER. MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF HARNEY AND
MALHEUR COUNTIES AND FROM THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SOUTHEAST OF KBOI
TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALOFT...A WEAKENING RIDGE
AXIS IS PASSING OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW SW
FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION IN
THE SHORT TERM. AFTER A VERY WARM WED...THANKSGIVING WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS MILD...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...MORE OR LESS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BURNS TO BOISE TO
FAIRFIELD. SNOW LEVEL RANGES FROM AROUND 8000 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO
6500 FEET IN THE NORTH TODAY...AND WILL COME DOWN TO A RANGE OF
FROM AROUND 7500 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO AROUND 5000 FEET IN THE
NORTH TOMORROW. TOMORROW...THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH
LIKE TODAY...BUT THE LINE WILL CREEP SOUTH IN SE OREGON LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SE OREGON.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE TIMING OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IS VERY LOW AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE HANDLING OF THE CUTOFF LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA
IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 271201 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
400 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
PERSISTING IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON AND THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AT THIS TIME. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 10 AM. THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. OTHERWISE
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS WEAKENING AND FLATTENING OUT. THIS
IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT. SO FAR...RADAR HAS SHOWN THE PRECIPITATION TO BE
MAINLY OVER THE CASCADE CREST AND EAST SLOPES...WITH DOWNSLOPE
DRYING ON THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AND IN THE VALLEYS TO THE EAST.
THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MILD WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS SO SNOW WILL NOT BE
A CONCERN WITH THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT
THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR BEHIND IT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR. THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MUCH COLDER. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IT WILL JUST GET COLDER WITH A DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVING
INTO THE CWA. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGE TOPS AND OVER OPEN TERRAIN.
88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS IN SHOWING
A PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MAIN CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING
WITH POPS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE NEAR TERRAIN FLOOR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY. THE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA BRINGS
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH TAKES SHAPE NEAR 130-140W ON SUNDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING,
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE, ARE SCOURING OUT FOG AND LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY.
THE DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BRING RAIN SHOWERS WITH CIGS AOA 5K FT AGL
TO KBDN, KRDM, KPDT AND KALW AFTER 27/20Z. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
A TAD THIS AFTERNOON FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AT
KRDM REACHING AROUND 20 KTS TODAY.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  45  59  34 /  10  20  60  80
ALW  60  48  58  36 /  20  20  70  80
PSC  59  45  60  35 /  10  20  30  50
YKM  54  36  53  27 /  10  20  30  30
HRI  60  45  60  35 /  10  20  40  60
ELN  53  37  52  27 /  20  30  40  30
RDM  58  37  58  33 /  10  20  50  70
LGD  52  40  51  36 /  30  30  70  80
GCD  54  40  51  35 /  20  40  60  70
DLS  59  44  56  37 /  20  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ026-028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/99







000
FXUS66 KPDT 271201 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
400 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
PERSISTING IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON AND THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AT THIS TIME. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 10 AM. THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. OTHERWISE
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS WEAKENING AND FLATTENING OUT. THIS
IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT. SO FAR...RADAR HAS SHOWN THE PRECIPITATION TO BE
MAINLY OVER THE CASCADE CREST AND EAST SLOPES...WITH DOWNSLOPE
DRYING ON THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AND IN THE VALLEYS TO THE EAST.
THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MILD WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS SO SNOW WILL NOT BE
A CONCERN WITH THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT
THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR BEHIND IT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR. THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MUCH COLDER. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IT WILL JUST GET COLDER WITH A DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVING
INTO THE CWA. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGE TOPS AND OVER OPEN TERRAIN.
88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS IN SHOWING
A PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MAIN CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING
WITH POPS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE NEAR TERRAIN FLOOR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY. THE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA BRINGS
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH TAKES SHAPE NEAR 130-140W ON SUNDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING,
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE, ARE SCOURING OUT FOG AND LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY.
THE DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BRING RAIN SHOWERS WITH CIGS AOA 5K FT AGL
TO KBDN, KRDM, KPDT AND KALW AFTER 27/20Z. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
A TAD THIS AFTERNOON FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AT
KRDM REACHING AROUND 20 KTS TODAY.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  45  59  34 /  10  20  60  80
ALW  60  48  58  36 /  20  20  70  80
PSC  59  45  60  35 /  10  20  30  50
YKM  54  36  53  27 /  10  20  30  30
HRI  60  45  60  35 /  10  20  40  60
ELN  53  37  52  27 /  20  30  40  30
RDM  58  37  58  33 /  10  20  50  70
LGD  52  40  51  36 /  30  30  70  80
GCD  54  40  51  35 /  20  40  60  70
DLS  59  44  56  37 /  20  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ026-028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/99







000
FXUS66 KPDT 271201 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
400 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
PERSISTING IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON AND THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AT THIS TIME. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 10 AM. THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. OTHERWISE
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS WEAKENING AND FLATTENING OUT. THIS
IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT. SO FAR...RADAR HAS SHOWN THE PRECIPITATION TO BE
MAINLY OVER THE CASCADE CREST AND EAST SLOPES...WITH DOWNSLOPE
DRYING ON THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AND IN THE VALLEYS TO THE EAST.
THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MILD WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS SO SNOW WILL NOT BE
A CONCERN WITH THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT
THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR BEHIND IT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR. THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MUCH COLDER. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IT WILL JUST GET COLDER WITH A DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVING
INTO THE CWA. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGE TOPS AND OVER OPEN TERRAIN.
88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS IN SHOWING
A PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MAIN CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING
WITH POPS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE NEAR TERRAIN FLOOR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY. THE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA BRINGS
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH TAKES SHAPE NEAR 130-140W ON SUNDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING,
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE, ARE SCOURING OUT FOG AND LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY.
THE DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BRING RAIN SHOWERS WITH CIGS AOA 5K FT AGL
TO KBDN, KRDM, KPDT AND KALW AFTER 27/20Z. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
A TAD THIS AFTERNOON FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AT
KRDM REACHING AROUND 20 KTS TODAY.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  45  59  34 /  10  20  60  80
ALW  60  48  58  36 /  20  20  70  80
PSC  59  45  60  35 /  10  20  30  50
YKM  54  36  53  27 /  10  20  30  30
HRI  60  45  60  35 /  10  20  40  60
ELN  53  37  52  27 /  20  30  40  30
RDM  58  37  58  33 /  10  20  50  70
LGD  52  40  51  36 /  30  30  70  80
GCD  54  40  51  35 /  20  40  60  70
DLS  59  44  56  37 /  20  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ026-028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/99







000
FXUS66 KPDT 271201 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
400 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
PERSISTING IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON AND THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AT THIS TIME. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 10 AM. THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. OTHERWISE
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS WEAKENING AND FLATTENING OUT. THIS
IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT. SO FAR...RADAR HAS SHOWN THE PRECIPITATION TO BE
MAINLY OVER THE CASCADE CREST AND EAST SLOPES...WITH DOWNSLOPE
DRYING ON THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AND IN THE VALLEYS TO THE EAST.
THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MILD WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS SO SNOW WILL NOT BE
A CONCERN WITH THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT
THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR BEHIND IT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR. THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MUCH COLDER. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IT WILL JUST GET COLDER WITH A DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVING
INTO THE CWA. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGE TOPS AND OVER OPEN TERRAIN.
88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS IN SHOWING
A PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MAIN CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING
WITH POPS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE NEAR TERRAIN FLOOR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY. THE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA BRINGS
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH TAKES SHAPE NEAR 130-140W ON SUNDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING,
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE, ARE SCOURING OUT FOG AND LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE YAKIMA VALLEY.
THE DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BRING RAIN SHOWERS WITH CIGS AOA 5K FT AGL
TO KBDN, KRDM, KPDT AND KALW AFTER 27/20Z. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
A TAD THIS AFTERNOON FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AT
KRDM REACHING AROUND 20 KTS TODAY.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  45  59  34 /  10  20  60  80
ALW  60  48  58  36 /  20  20  70  80
PSC  59  45  60  35 /  10  20  30  50
YKM  54  36  53  27 /  10  20  30  30
HRI  60  45  60  35 /  10  20  40  60
ELN  53  37  52  27 /  20  30  40  30
RDM  58  37  58  33 /  10  20  50  70
LGD  52  40  51  36 /  30  30  70  80
GCD  54  40  51  35 /  20  40  60  70
DLS  59  44  56  37 /  20  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ026-028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/99







000
FXUS66 KPQR 271128
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
327 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT AND FRI. THIS
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN EARLY FRI. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER WEATHER. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY SAT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX A POSSIBILITY FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS. HIGH PRES OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE
BY SUN FOR DRY AND COLD WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP
OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE KEEPING
EXCEPTIONALLY MILD CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT CURRENT ARE VERY
CLOSE TO THE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
HOWEVER...THE PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE COMING TO AN END VERY SHORTLY.

THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING IS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE. LOOKING AT THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT IS
APPARENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HAS MOVED
OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE FRONT CAN BE
MADE OUT ON SATELLITE JUST OFFSHORE AROUND BUOY 29. WITH ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE REMAINING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALOFT...THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE IS DEFINITELY ON THE
PATCHIER SIDE. THE RAIN HAS BECOME A BIT STEADIER OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ALONG THE N COAST AND COAST RANGE...BUT MOST SITES ARE ONLY
PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR.
STILL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT STEADY RAIN AS THE
FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE
DAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST THAT WE ARE WATCHING THIS MORNING IS A
PERSISTENT STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DRIVE THIS BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS A SHARP COLD
FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL OREGON IS
FCST TO PUSH NORTHWARD AGAIN FRI MORNING. BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES...EXPECT RAINFALL TO STEADILY INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES FRI. AS THE SHARP COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH DIVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS ALOFT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SAT TO PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR POST FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHILE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BASED ON MODEL 850MB TEMPS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES...IT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO AFFECT THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AT TIMES ON SAT. THE TEMP AND THICKNESS INDICATORS
ARE ONLY MARGINAL AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS
JUST HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT
HIGH THAT THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLAKES. AT
ANY RATE...WITH THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT ROAD SURFACES WILL BE ABLE TO COOL FAST ENOUGH FOR
THERE TO BE MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS. PYLE


LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS SHOWERS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...  ITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY
GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS
AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...A MIXTURE OF IFR AND LOW MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD
ONTO THE COAST WITH THE FIRST INCOMING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS AT THE COAST WILL THEN CONTINUE IN THAT RANGE
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE BUT STALLS AND SOME
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES AT TIMES. INLAND CONDITIONS ARE STILL VFR
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER
THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR
CIGS OR LOW END VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CHANGE THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CIGS
HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW END VFR WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AT TIMES. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AS THE FRONT MOVED FARTHER INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND GALE WARNING LOOKS GOOD. BELIEVE
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS WILL EXTEND AN HOUR OR TWO
PAST 4 AM SO HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE THERE. THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO EAST A
BIT...BUT THERE IS REALLY NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THEN IT LOOKS LIKE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL EASE ON SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROBABLY OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY VARIETY. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 10 FEET RIGHT NOW BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
IN THE 10 TO 13 FT RANGE TODAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO SATURDAY...THEN FALL BELOW 10 FT BY
SUNDAY. SEAS TODAY WILL BE CHOPPY WITH AROUND 8 SECOND PERIODS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PERIODS WILL LENGTHEN TO AROUND 14 SECONDS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT AND BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH PERIODS AND 10 OR 11 SECONDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 AM PST FRIDAY.

&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST THURSDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 271128
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
327 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON TONIGHT AND FRI. THIS
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN EARLY FRI. ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI INTO SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER WEATHER. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
RAPIDLY SAT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX A POSSIBILITY FOR THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS. HIGH PRES OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE
BY SUN FOR DRY AND COLD WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP
OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE KEEPING
EXCEPTIONALLY MILD CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT CURRENT ARE VERY
CLOSE TO THE RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
HOWEVER...THE PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE COMING TO AN END VERY SHORTLY.

THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING IS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE. LOOKING AT THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT IS
APPARENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HAS MOVED
OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE FRONT CAN BE
MADE OUT ON SATELLITE JUST OFFSHORE AROUND BUOY 29. WITH ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE REMAINING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALOFT...THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE IS DEFINITELY ON THE
PATCHIER SIDE. THE RAIN HAS BECOME A BIT STEADIER OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ALONG THE N COAST AND COAST RANGE...BUT MOST SITES ARE ONLY
PICKING UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR.
STILL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DECENT STEADY RAIN AS THE
FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE
DAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST THAT WE ARE WATCHING THIS MORNING IS A
PERSISTENT STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND FAR NORTHERN WASHINGTON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DRIVE THIS BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS A SHARP COLD
FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL OREGON IS
FCST TO PUSH NORTHWARD AGAIN FRI MORNING. BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES...EXPECT RAINFALL TO STEADILY INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES FRI. AS THE SHARP COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH DIVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS ALOFT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SAT TO PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR POST FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHILE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
BASED ON MODEL 850MB TEMPS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES...IT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO AFFECT THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AT TIMES ON SAT. THE TEMP AND THICKNESS INDICATORS
ARE ONLY MARGINAL AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS
JUST HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT
HIGH THAT THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLAKES. AT
ANY RATE...WITH THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT ROAD SURFACES WILL BE ABLE TO COOL FAST ENOUGH FOR
THERE TO BE MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS. PYLE


LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS SHOWERS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...  ITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY
GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS
AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...A MIXTURE OF IFR AND LOW MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD
ONTO THE COAST WITH THE FIRST INCOMING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS AT THE COAST WILL THEN CONTINUE IN THAT RANGE
INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE BUT STALLS AND SOME
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES AT TIMES. INLAND CONDITIONS ARE STILL VFR
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER
THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR
CIGS OR LOW END VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO FRIDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CHANGE THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CIGS
HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW END VFR WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AT TIMES. PT
&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AS THE FRONT MOVED FARTHER INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND GALE WARNING LOOKS GOOD. BELIEVE
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS WILL EXTEND AN HOUR OR TWO
PAST 4 AM SO HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE THERE. THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO EAST A
BIT...BUT THERE IS REALLY NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT.
THEN IT LOOKS LIKE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL EASE ON SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE GAP ENHANCED EAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROBABLY OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY VARIETY. THESE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 10 FEET RIGHT NOW BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
IN THE 10 TO 13 FT RANGE TODAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND 10 FT INTO SATURDAY...THEN FALL BELOW 10 FT BY
SUNDAY. SEAS TODAY WILL BE CHOPPY WITH AROUND 8 SECOND PERIODS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PERIODS WILL LENGTHEN TO AROUND 14 SECONDS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT AND BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH PERIODS AND 10 OR 11 SECONDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PT
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
     6 AM PST FRIDAY.

&&


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST THURSDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KMFR 271113
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
313 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...IT MAY SEEM TRITE...BUT THANKSGIVING WILL BE WET FOR
SOME...AND DRY FOR OTHERS. A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL SET UP SHOP
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SPLITTING
THE AREA INTO DRY AND WET. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF MEDFORD SHOULD
GENERALLY RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR MORE...WHILE MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF MEDFORD. THE
MEDFORD AREA ITSELF WILL BE RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF SOME
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH SO NO SNOW IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED ON TURKEY DAY. IT SHOULD BE BREEZY OVER HIGH TERRAIN AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES YET AGAIN TODAY.

TONIGHT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WAVES TO THE
NORTH BRIEFLY TONIGHT BEFORE BEING INVIGORATED AND SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY A SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH. ALL
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL SEE RAINFALL
FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR A
WINDY DAY IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...THE SHASTA VALLEY...AND THE
EAST SIDE. WE`VE DECIDED THAT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE INCLUDING HIGHWAY 31
NEAR SUMMER LAKE. 700MB WINDS REACH 50-60KT...AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD BE PLENTY TO GENERATE 50MPH
GUSTS AND CAUSE TRAVEL TROUBLES FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES IN THAT
AREA.

SNOW LEVELS BEGIN TO FALL FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES
IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. LOCATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET...LIKE
CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK...WILL START TO SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOWS...AND COULD END UP WITH A FOOT OF SNOW BY THE TIME THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL LOWER SNOW
LEVELS FURTHER ON SATURDAY BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SHUT
OFF AS THE COLDER DRIER AIR MASS RUSHES IN. AT THIS POINT...IT
SEEMS THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AT 6000 FEET AND
ABOVE. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS LIKE 5000 FEET AT HIGHWAY 140 NEAR
LAKE OF THE WOODS...ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. EVEN
LOWER...NEAR SISKIYOU SUMMIT ON I-5...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH
SNOW AT ALL.

I MUST NOTE THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE COLLECTIVE
SUITE OF MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF...NAM...AND SREF...WHILE
USING MUCH LESS OF THE GFS. THE FIRST SET OF MODELS ARE COLDER
AND DRIER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
BOUNDARY WAVING BACK NORTH AND GENERATING OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN
THERE COULD BE SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON THE EAST SIDE WHERE
LINGERING COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE OVERRUN WITH
MOISTURE. AGAIN...WE`RE NOT SIDING WITH THIS SOLUTION AS IT IS
ESSENTIALLY AN OUTLIER AMONGST THE OTHER MODELS AT THIS TIME.

AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY ALL THE
WAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE USING A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND EC IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...SUGGESTING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY ATTRIBUTED TO THE GFS AND CLIMATOLOGICAL
CONSIDERATIONS. MY GUT FEELING IS THAT THE DRIER EC WILL WIN
OUT...AND PRECIPIATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED MAY BE CUT SHARPLY
DURING THE NEXT SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE... A STRONG INVERSION
CONTINUES TO TRAP LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE BELOW IT OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST SIDE DESPITE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE IT. DUE TO THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA, WE DO
NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AS EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE AND DURATION THROUGH
THE MORNING AS IT WAS THIS PAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DO STILL
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH AROUND 20Z, IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY BUT ONLY UNTIL 15Z IN THE ROSEBURG AREA. OTHERWISE, THE
INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN VFR AND MVFR
CEILING CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AND LIGHT TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE SHOULD
BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND AND THE INVERSION WEAKENS. RAIN WILL
PUSH ONTO THE COAST AND THE WEST SIDE OF OREGON DURING THE DAY AND
EXPECT INCREASING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014... SOUTH WINDS AND
WIND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SEAS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
CHAOTIC...BUILDING TO A STEEP TO VERY STEEP 10 TO 15 FEET.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO SURGE
UPWARD AGAIN. SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND
WIND. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
IN THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. -CC/BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/NSK/CC



000
FXUS66 KPDT 271102
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
PERSISTING IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON AND THE
KITTITAS VALLEY AT THIS TIME. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 10 AM. THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. OTHERWISE
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS WEAKENING AND FLATTENING OUT. THIS
IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT. SO FAR...RADAR HAS SHOWN THE PRECIPITATION TO BE
MAINLY OVER THE CASCADE CREST AND EAST SLOPES...WITH DOWNSLOPE
DRYING ON THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AND IN THE VALLEYS TO THE EAST.
THE AIR MASS IS QUITE MILD WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS SO SNOW WILL NOT BE
A CONCERN WITH THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT
THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR BEHIND IT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR. THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MUCH COLDER. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IT WILL JUST GET COLDER WITH A DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVING
INTO THE CWA. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGE TOPS AND OVER OPEN TERRAIN.
88

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS IN SHOWING
A PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MAIN CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING
WITH POPS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE NEAR TERRAIN FLOOR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY. THE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA BRINGS
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH TAKES SHAPE NEAR 130-140W ON SUNDAY AND THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH
LIFR TO IFR CIG AND VIS IS OCCURRING OR WILL OCCUR AT KPSC AND KYKM
THRU 27/12Z.  ALL OTHER TAF SITES ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
DURING THE SAME PERIOD.  STARTING AFT 27/12Z...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE SHOULD SCOUR OUT FOG AT THE
AFFECTED TAF SITES.  THE DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BRING RAIN SHOWERS
WITH CIG AOA 5K FT AGL TO NORTHERN OREGON TAF SITES AND KALW AFT
27/20Z.  BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  45  59  34 /  10  20  60  80
ALW  60  48  58  36 /  20  20  70  80
PSC  59  45  60  35 /  10  20  30  50
YKM  54  36  53  27 /  10  20  30  30
HRI  60  45  60  35 /  10  20  40  60
ELN  53  37  52  27 /  20  30  40  30
RDM  58  37  58  33 /  10  20  50  70
LGD  52  40  51  36 /  30  30  70  80
GCD  54  40  51  35 /  20  40  60  70
DLS  59  44  56  37 /  20  30  70  80

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ026-028.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/99/99







000
FXUS65 KBOI 271045
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
345 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALOFT...A WEAKENING RIDGE
AXIS IS PASSING OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW SW
FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION IN
THE SHORT TERM. AFTER A VERY WARM WED...THANKSGIVING WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS MILD...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...MORE OR LESS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BURNS TO BOISE TO
FAIRFIELD. SNOW LEVEL RANGES FROM AROUND 8000 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO
6500 FEET IN THE NORTH TODAY...AND WILL COME DOWN TO A RANGE OF
FROM AROUND 7500 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO AROUND 5000 FEET IN THE
NORTH TOMORROW. TOMORROW...THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH
LIKE TODAY...BUT THE LINE WILL CREEP SOUTH IN SE OREGON LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE TIMING OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IS VERY LOW AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE HANDLING OF THE CUTOFF LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA
IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID CLOUD DECKS. MOUNTAINS NORTH OF A
KBKE-KSUN LINE BECOMING OBSCURED AFTER 18Z THU WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6500FT NEAR KMYL AND 8500FT NEAR
NEVADA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS 12KT OR LESS EXCEPT IN SOUTHEAST
OREGON SW 15-25KT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WSW 35-50KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 271045
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
345 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALOFT...A WEAKENING RIDGE
AXIS IS PASSING OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW SW
FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION IN
THE SHORT TERM. AFTER A VERY WARM WED...THANKSGIVING WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS MILD...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...MORE OR LESS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BURNS TO BOISE TO
FAIRFIELD. SNOW LEVEL RANGES FROM AROUND 8000 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO
6500 FEET IN THE NORTH TODAY...AND WILL COME DOWN TO A RANGE OF
FROM AROUND 7500 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO AROUND 5000 FEET IN THE
NORTH TOMORROW. TOMORROW...THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH
LIKE TODAY...BUT THE LINE WILL CREEP SOUTH IN SE OREGON LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE TIMING OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IS VERY LOW AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE HANDLING OF THE CUTOFF LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA
IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID CLOUD DECKS. MOUNTAINS NORTH OF A
KBKE-KSUN LINE BECOMING OBSCURED AFTER 18Z THU WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6500FT NEAR KMYL AND 8500FT NEAR
NEVADA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS 12KT OR LESS EXCEPT IN SOUTHEAST
OREGON SW 15-25KT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WSW 35-50KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS66 KPDT 270531 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
933 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY WITH
PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. HAVE ISSUED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AS A RESULT AND WILL
MONITOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...A
RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN WITH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC LOW WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DIVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY BRING
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
IMPACT TRAVEL. PLEASE FIND MORE INFORMATION IN PRODUCT SPSPDT AND
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. BIEDA

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR TO IFR CIG AND
VIS IS OCCURRING OR WILL OCCUR AT KPSC AND KYKM THRU 27/12Z.  ALL
OTHER TAF SITES ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN AT VFR DURING THE SAME
PERIOD.  STARTING AFT 27/12Z...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A
PASSING DISTURBANCE SHOULD SCOUR OUT FOG AT THE AFFECTED TAF SITES.
THE DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BRING RAIN SHOWERS WITH CIG AOA 5K FT AGL
TO NORTHERN OREGON TAF SITES AND KALW AFT 27/20Z.  BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 330 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS IT BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LEADING UP TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES BOTH DAY AND
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL.
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TURNING OVER TO SNOW AS
SNOW LEVELS LOWER RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SATURDAY MAINLY FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND AREAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. YET IN CENTRAL
OREGON...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5500 FEET...SO RAIN WILL
MIX IN DURING THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL RETREAT SOUTHWARD
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR COULD ALLOW ANY RAIN TO CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF A LOW
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...MOISTURE COULD
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FUELING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
OREGON AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE. DESPITE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BOTH DO BRING THE LOW INLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  60  47  57 /  10  10  20  60
ALW  51  60  50  56 /  10  20  20  70
PSC  42  59  47  58 /  10  10  10  30
YKM  41  54  38  51 /  10  10  10  30
HRI  47  60  47  58 /  10  10  10  40
ELN  38  53  39  50 /  20  20  30  40
RDM  38  58  39  56 /  10  10  20  50
LGD  44  52  42  49 /  20  30  30  70
GCD  44  54  42  49 /  10  20  40  60
DLS  47  59  46  54 /  10  20  30  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

98/82/82








000
FXUS66 KPDT 270531 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
933 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY WITH
PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. HAVE ISSUED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AS A RESULT AND WILL
MONITOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...A
RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN WITH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC LOW WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DIVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY BRING
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
IMPACT TRAVEL. PLEASE FIND MORE INFORMATION IN PRODUCT SPSPDT AND
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. BIEDA

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR TO IFR CIG AND
VIS IS OCCURRING OR WILL OCCUR AT KPSC AND KYKM THRU 27/12Z.  ALL
OTHER TAF SITES ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN AT VFR DURING THE SAME
PERIOD.  STARTING AFT 27/12Z...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A
PASSING DISTURBANCE SHOULD SCOUR OUT FOG AT THE AFFECTED TAF SITES.
THE DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BRING RAIN SHOWERS WITH CIG AOA 5K FT AGL
TO NORTHERN OREGON TAF SITES AND KALW AFT 27/20Z.  BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 330 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS IT BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LEADING UP TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES BOTH DAY AND
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL.
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TURNING OVER TO SNOW AS
SNOW LEVELS LOWER RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SATURDAY MAINLY FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND AREAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. YET IN CENTRAL
OREGON...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5500 FEET...SO RAIN WILL
MIX IN DURING THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL RETREAT SOUTHWARD
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR COULD ALLOW ANY RAIN TO CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF A LOW
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...MOISTURE COULD
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FUELING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
OREGON AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE. DESPITE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BOTH DO BRING THE LOW INLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  60  47  57 /  10  10  20  60
ALW  51  60  50  56 /  10  20  20  70
PSC  42  59  47  58 /  10  10  10  30
YKM  41  54  38  51 /  10  10  10  30
HRI  47  60  47  58 /  10  10  10  40
ELN  38  53  39  50 /  20  20  30  40
RDM  38  58  39  56 /  10  10  20  50
LGD  44  52  42  49 /  20  30  30  70
GCD  44  54  42  49 /  10  20  40  60
DLS  47  59  46  54 /  10  20  30  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

98/82/82








000
FXUS66 KPDT 270531 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
933 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY WITH
PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. HAVE ISSUED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AS A RESULT AND WILL
MONITOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...A
RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN WITH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC LOW WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DIVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY BRING
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
IMPACT TRAVEL. PLEASE FIND MORE INFORMATION IN PRODUCT SPSPDT AND
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. BIEDA

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR TO IFR CIG AND
VIS IS OCCURRING OR WILL OCCUR AT KPSC AND KYKM THRU 27/12Z.  ALL
OTHER TAF SITES ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN AT VFR DURING THE SAME
PERIOD.  STARTING AFT 27/12Z...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A
PASSING DISTURBANCE SHOULD SCOUR OUT FOG AT THE AFFECTED TAF SITES.
THE DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BRING RAIN SHOWERS WITH CIG AOA 5K FT AGL
TO NORTHERN OREGON TAF SITES AND KALW AFT 27/20Z.  BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 330 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS IT BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LEADING UP TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES BOTH DAY AND
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL.
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TURNING OVER TO SNOW AS
SNOW LEVELS LOWER RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SATURDAY MAINLY FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND AREAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. YET IN CENTRAL
OREGON...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5500 FEET...SO RAIN WILL
MIX IN DURING THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL RETREAT SOUTHWARD
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR COULD ALLOW ANY RAIN TO CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF A LOW
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...MOISTURE COULD
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FUELING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
OREGON AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE. DESPITE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BOTH DO BRING THE LOW INLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  60  47  57 /  10  10  20  60
ALW  51  60  50  56 /  10  20  20  70
PSC  42  59  47  58 /  10  10  10  30
YKM  41  54  38  51 /  10  10  10  30
HRI  47  60  47  58 /  10  10  10  40
ELN  38  53  39  50 /  20  20  30  40
RDM  38  58  39  56 /  10  10  20  50
LGD  44  52  42  49 /  20  30  30  70
GCD  44  54  42  49 /  10  20  40  60
DLS  47  59  46  54 /  10  20  30  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

98/82/82








000
FXUS66 KPDT 270531 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
933 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY WITH
PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. HAVE ISSUED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AS A RESULT AND WILL
MONITOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...A
RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN WITH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC LOW WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DIVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY BRING
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
IMPACT TRAVEL. PLEASE FIND MORE INFORMATION IN PRODUCT SPSPDT AND
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. BIEDA

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR TO IFR CIG AND
VIS IS OCCURRING OR WILL OCCUR AT KPSC AND KYKM THRU 27/12Z.  ALL
OTHER TAF SITES ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN AT VFR DURING THE SAME
PERIOD.  STARTING AFT 27/12Z...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A
PASSING DISTURBANCE SHOULD SCOUR OUT FOG AT THE AFFECTED TAF SITES.
THE DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BRING RAIN SHOWERS WITH CIG AOA 5K FT AGL
TO NORTHERN OREGON TAF SITES AND KALW AFT 27/20Z.  BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 330 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS IT BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LEADING UP TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES BOTH DAY AND
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL.
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TURNING OVER TO SNOW AS
SNOW LEVELS LOWER RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SATURDAY MAINLY FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND AREAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. YET IN CENTRAL
OREGON...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5500 FEET...SO RAIN WILL
MIX IN DURING THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL RETREAT SOUTHWARD
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR COULD ALLOW ANY RAIN TO CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF A LOW
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...MOISTURE COULD
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FUELING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
OREGON AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE. DESPITE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BOTH DO BRING THE LOW INLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  60  47  57 /  10  10  20  60
ALW  51  60  50  56 /  10  20  20  70
PSC  42  59  47  58 /  10  10  10  30
YKM  41  54  38  51 /  10  10  10  30
HRI  47  60  47  58 /  10  10  10  40
ELN  38  53  39  50 /  20  20  30  40
RDM  38  58  39  56 /  10  10  20  50
LGD  44  52  42  49 /  20  30  30  70
GCD  44  54  42  49 /  10  20  40  60
DLS  47  59  46  54 /  10  20  30  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

98/82/82








000
FXUS66 KMFR 270519
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
919 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFFSHORE AND WILL
SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE COAST WATERS TONIGHT THEN INTO THE COAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND THEN REMAIN IN THE AREA FLUCTUATING IN
POSITION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A VERY MOIST PATTERN TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY.

INITIALLY, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS
TONIGHT. THEN RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST INTO DOUGLAS
COUNTY, INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND INTO PORTIONS OF
JOSEPHINE AND NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY. EAST OF THE CASCADES
EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY DURING THE DAY. OF NOTE IS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OVER CURRY COUNTY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR THE CURRY COUNTY AREA. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
POSITION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, SAGGING SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
BY THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY BRING RAIN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT,
FLUCTUATING SLIGHTLY IN POSITION. THEN FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY,
A LOW TO THE NORTH SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND TOWARDS THE AREA WILL
HELP PUSH THE FRONT INLAND BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
CWA.

OF CONCERN IS HOW MUCH SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SATURDAY. MODELS
VARY ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BRING A VERY COLD AIR MASS WITH LOWERED SNOW LEVELS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE NAM IS THE COLDEST SOLUTION WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING MUCH LESS COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
THE ECMWF AND SREF SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE SOLUTIONS AND INDICATE
THAT SNOW LEVELS MAY LOWER TO  PASS LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES WITH LOWER PASSES INCLUDING SEXTON SUMMIT POSSIBLY AFFECT BY
SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR IS EXPECTED
OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY AND NORTHERN COOS COUNTY AS WELL AS THE
CHEMULT AREA WHERE LOWER SNOW LEVELS, POSSIBLY DOWN TO 2000 FT,
MAY OCCUR SATURDAY IN SHOWERS. ALONG WITH THE VARIABILITY IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE COLD AIR AND SNOW LEVELS THERE IS ALSO
VARIABILITY IN THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THIS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. IN GENERAL THOUGH
MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS BEING MAINLY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 1000FT AND 2500FT AGL ON THE MEDFORD
AFTERNOON SOUNDING CONTINUES TO TRAP LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE BELOW
IT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE DESPITE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS JUST
ABOVE IT. DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA, WE DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AS EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE
AND DURATION TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING AS IT WAS THIS
PAST MORNING. WE DO STILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS FROM 03Z
THROUGH 19Z, PARTICULARLY IN THE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. OTHERWISE, THE
INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECT TO RESULT IN MVFR CEILING
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND
AND THE INVERSION WEAKENS. RAIN WILL PUSH ONTO THE COAST AND THE
WEST SIDE OF OREGON DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014... SOUTH WINDS AND WIND
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
CHAOTIC...BUILDING TO A STEEP TO VERY STEEP 10 TO 15 FEET. ANOTHER
FRONTAL WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO SURGE UPWARD
AGAIN. SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND WIND.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT COULD SURFACE FOR A FEW
HOURS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN FAVORED LOCATION SUCH AS THE
PART OF HWY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER LAKE AND PAISLEY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH RAIN SPREADING
INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY BY LATE MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW
A GOOD SOUTHWEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO CURRY COUNTY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LYING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK AND FORTH. AS A RESULT
WE WILL SEE MORE OR LESS PROLONGED RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON
AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY, THE KLAMATH AND GOOSE
LAKE BASINS INCLUDED. SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE 6000 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE PASSES.

ON FRIDAY..ALSO EXPECT MODERATELY SE-NW SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE SHASTA VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE
ROGUE VALLEY BUT SOUTH END OF JACKSON COUNTY SUCH AS ASHLAND COULD
SEE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON FRIDAY. MOREOVER WINDS AT 700MB INCREASE
TO AROUND 50KTS AND THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WARNER MOUNTAINS
AND PART OF HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER LAKE AND PAISLEY IN LAKE
COUNTY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
OREGON. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS CHEMULT OR SILVER LAKE. THIS WILL PRESENT A FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR SUNDAY AS WE ARE EXPECTING A WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUSHING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. /FB

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF A POTENT LOW PRESSURE CENTER BY ROUGHLY 24
HOURS. THIS HAS PUSHED A POTENTIAL HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT FOR AREAS IN
AND AROUND MT SHASTA CITY AWAY FROM THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY OF SUNDAY,
AND INSTEAD IS FOCUSING THE EVENT MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AGAIN, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT A LARGE, VERY MOIST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND OTHER DETAILS REMAINS MUCH LOWER.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW STATIONED
WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA, BUT A WAVE ORBITING THIS LOW WILL PUSH
A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA, AND DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND THE
EXTENT OF COLD AIR REMAINING TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE, COULD RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF SNOW OR POTENTIALLY EVEN SOME ICE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EAST SIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN THIS
SCENARIO, BUT IT DOES BARE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE LOW ITSELF WILL FINALLY PUSH ASHORE
SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A VERY RICH
PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING UP THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA INTO
THE SHASTA HIGHLANDS. THE SAME CONCERNS REMAIN TODAY AS YESTERDAY,
FOCUSING ON THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION, AND
THE QUESTION OF HOW FAR WILL SNOW LEVELS DROP IN THAT AREA. SIMILAR
EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY WET SNOW EVENTS IN THE
AREA OF MT SHASTA, AND THE SAME POTENTIAL EXISTS HERE, THUS THIS
EVENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL.

WHATEVER THE RESULTING CHAIN OF EVENTS BRINGS, THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED TERM, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. -BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC



000
FXUS66 KPQR 270512
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND
EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER WESTERN OREGON THU NIGHT
AND FRI...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE
REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES
OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE BY SUN FOR DRY BUT
COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT
OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...NWS DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO
SPREAD ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION...THROUGH OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR...GENERALLY
ONLY A TRACE OR FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. FORECAST REMAINS
GENERALLY ON TRACK...BUT INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PER RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
THE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED IN
APPEARANCE AND EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE INITIALLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY SPLIT N AND S...LEAVING
MANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FROM MIDDAY
THU THROUGH THU EVENING. ALSO NUDGED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.
CULLEN
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONTINUES FOR NOW EXCEPT FOR KAST WHERE PASSING
RAIN BANDS HAVE BRIEFLY LOWERED THE CIGS TO AROUND 029. EXPECT THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. EVEN THEN
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TERRIBLY PESSIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RADAR BACKS THIS
UP AS RETURNS ARE FAIRLY DISJOINTED IMPLYING A LACK OF
ORGANIZATION. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES INTENT
OF SHOWING A LOWER AND WEAKLY CONVECTIVE DECK AFTER THE FRONT AND
LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO RESULT IN IFR
CIGS AT THE COAST AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 INLAND.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU WITH VISUAL APPROACHED BECOMING IMPACTED SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AS THE DECK LOWERS BEYOND 040. WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 020 CLOSER TO 18Z WITH LITTLE LIFT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL CALENDAR DAY. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THUS FAR TONIGHT WITH
THE HRRR MODEL HAVING AS GOOD OF A HANDLE AS ANYTHING. DO EXPECT
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT AS THE FRONT NEARS TONIGHT BUT LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR ONLY INDICATE A VERY MARGINAL GALE GUST SCENARIO
FROM ABOUT 15 NM OUT TOWARDS SHORE. BEST WINDS WILL STAY WELL
ELEVATED OFF THE WATER SURFACE AS BROAD ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IS NOT
SUPPORTING THE HIGHER SPEEDS GETTING MIXED TO THE SURFACE. WILL
MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING SINCE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. JBONK/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST THURSDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 270512
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND
EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER WESTERN OREGON THU NIGHT
AND FRI...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE
REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES
OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE BY SUN FOR DRY BUT
COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT
OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...NWS DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO
SPREAD ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION...THROUGH OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR...GENERALLY
ONLY A TRACE OR FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. FORECAST REMAINS
GENERALLY ON TRACK...BUT INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PER RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
THE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED IN
APPEARANCE AND EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE INITIALLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY SPLIT N AND S...LEAVING
MANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FROM MIDDAY
THU THROUGH THU EVENING. ALSO NUDGED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.
CULLEN
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONTINUES FOR NOW EXCEPT FOR KAST WHERE PASSING
RAIN BANDS HAVE BRIEFLY LOWERED THE CIGS TO AROUND 029. EXPECT THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. EVEN THEN
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TERRIBLY PESSIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RADAR BACKS THIS
UP AS RETURNS ARE FAIRLY DISJOINTED IMPLYING A LACK OF
ORGANIZATION. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES INTENT
OF SHOWING A LOWER AND WEAKLY CONVECTIVE DECK AFTER THE FRONT AND
LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO RESULT IN IFR
CIGS AT THE COAST AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 INLAND.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU WITH VISUAL APPROACHED BECOMING IMPACTED SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AS THE DECK LOWERS BEYOND 040. WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 020 CLOSER TO 18Z WITH LITTLE LIFT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL CALENDAR DAY. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THUS FAR TONIGHT WITH
THE HRRR MODEL HAVING AS GOOD OF A HANDLE AS ANYTHING. DO EXPECT
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT AS THE FRONT NEARS TONIGHT BUT LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR ONLY INDICATE A VERY MARGINAL GALE GUST SCENARIO
FROM ABOUT 15 NM OUT TOWARDS SHORE. BEST WINDS WILL STAY WELL
ELEVATED OFF THE WATER SURFACE AS BROAD ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IS NOT
SUPPORTING THE HIGHER SPEEDS GETTING MIXED TO THE SURFACE. WILL
MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING SINCE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. JBONK/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST THURSDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 270512
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND
EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER WESTERN OREGON THU NIGHT
AND FRI...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE
REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES
OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE BY SUN FOR DRY BUT
COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT
OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...NWS DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO
SPREAD ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION...THROUGH OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR...GENERALLY
ONLY A TRACE OR FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. FORECAST REMAINS
GENERALLY ON TRACK...BUT INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PER RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
THE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED IN
APPEARANCE AND EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE INITIALLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY SPLIT N AND S...LEAVING
MANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FROM MIDDAY
THU THROUGH THU EVENING. ALSO NUDGED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.
CULLEN
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONTINUES FOR NOW EXCEPT FOR KAST WHERE PASSING
RAIN BANDS HAVE BRIEFLY LOWERED THE CIGS TO AROUND 029. EXPECT THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. EVEN THEN
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TERRIBLY PESSIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RADAR BACKS THIS
UP AS RETURNS ARE FAIRLY DISJOINTED IMPLYING A LACK OF
ORGANIZATION. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES INTENT
OF SHOWING A LOWER AND WEAKLY CONVECTIVE DECK AFTER THE FRONT AND
LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO RESULT IN IFR
CIGS AT THE COAST AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 INLAND.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU WITH VISUAL APPROACHED BECOMING IMPACTED SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AS THE DECK LOWERS BEYOND 040. WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 020 CLOSER TO 18Z WITH LITTLE LIFT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL CALENDAR DAY. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THUS FAR TONIGHT WITH
THE HRRR MODEL HAVING AS GOOD OF A HANDLE AS ANYTHING. DO EXPECT
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT AS THE FRONT NEARS TONIGHT BUT LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR ONLY INDICATE A VERY MARGINAL GALE GUST SCENARIO
FROM ABOUT 15 NM OUT TOWARDS SHORE. BEST WINDS WILL STAY WELL
ELEVATED OFF THE WATER SURFACE AS BROAD ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IS NOT
SUPPORTING THE HIGHER SPEEDS GETTING MIXED TO THE SURFACE. WILL
MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING SINCE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. JBONK/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST THURSDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 270512
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND TONIGHT AND
EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER WESTERN OREGON THU NIGHT
AND FRI...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE
REGION FRI NIGHT USHERING COLDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES
OVER THE INTERIOR NW WILL TURN THE FLOW OFFSHORE BY SUN FOR DRY BUT
COLD WEATHER. SUN NIGHT AND MON A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE S WILL
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION UP OVER THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT
OVER FROM THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...NWS DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO
SPREAD ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION...THROUGH OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR...GENERALLY
ONLY A TRACE OR FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. FORECAST REMAINS
GENERALLY ON TRACK...BUT INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PER RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
THE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED IN
APPEARANCE AND EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE INITIALLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY SPLIT N AND S...LEAVING
MANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FROM MIDDAY
THU THROUGH THU EVENING. ALSO NUDGED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.
CULLEN
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OFFSHORE WED AFTERNOON...WITH
LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS E TONIGHT AND THU THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE SW...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE IN SHOWING MOISTURE INITIALLY IN THEMID AND
HIGH LEVELS...ABOVE 700MB. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN IN THE LOWER LEVELS. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER ON
THE WEAK SIDE...SO WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT INLAND
AREAS...WHILE THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW. WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. THU THE FRONT APPEARS TO
STALL OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW OFFSHORE DIGS IN A BIT MORE. WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE MORE ONSHORE
WILL TAKE POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY MODEST COOLING TO AIR MASS WITH THE
FRONT...CLOUDS AND EXPECTED OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPS TO THE 50S MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS.

LATE THU NIGHT...AND ESP FRI BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH BC WITH A TRUE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE COAST AHEAD OF IT. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL...BEST
DEPICTED IN MODEL 290K ISENTROPIC FIELDS. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN PICKS UP CONSIDERABLY BY FRI.

MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE WESTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. ALL MODELS AT THIS POINT SHOWING A VIGOROUS CONTINENTAL
TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH SW WA AND NW OREGON FRI NIGHT.
PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM BACK ON 19 NOVEMBER 2003
THAT BROUGHT LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO INTERIOR N PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. KEYS TO DOING SOMETHING SIMILAR RELY ON SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AT THIS POINT INDICATE SNOW LEVEL FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN
TO FAIRLY LOW LEVELS. WHETHER IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX SNOW AT
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS ANYBODYS GUESS AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN MODELS AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SAT SEES A
RATHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE N...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES SAT NIGHT...
WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO END OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH LOW TEMPS LIKELY GETTING WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
SPOTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE CASCADES...
EXPECT STRONG EAST WINDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE GORGE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. MONDAY MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WINDS AS A SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.

MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE FROM THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC JET AND SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME PRECIP
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT OR MON. THE 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. IF
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
GORGE. CUTOFF LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THEM IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. WHERE THIS UPPER LOW GOES WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  WEAGLE
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONTINUES FOR NOW EXCEPT FOR KAST WHERE PASSING
RAIN BANDS HAVE BRIEFLY LOWERED THE CIGS TO AROUND 029. EXPECT THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. EVEN THEN
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TERRIBLY PESSIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RADAR BACKS THIS
UP AS RETURNS ARE FAIRLY DISJOINTED IMPLYING A LACK OF
ORGANIZATION. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES INTENT
OF SHOWING A LOWER AND WEAKLY CONVECTIVE DECK AFTER THE FRONT AND
LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO RESULT IN IFR
CIGS AT THE COAST AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 INLAND.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THU WITH VISUAL APPROACHED BECOMING IMPACTED SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AS THE DECK LOWERS BEYOND 040. WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 020 CLOSER TO 18Z WITH LITTLE LIFT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL CALENDAR DAY. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THUS FAR TONIGHT WITH
THE HRRR MODEL HAVING AS GOOD OF A HANDLE AS ANYTHING. DO EXPECT
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT AS THE FRONT NEARS TONIGHT BUT LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR ONLY INDICATE A VERY MARGINAL GALE GUST SCENARIO
FROM ABOUT 15 NM OUT TOWARDS SHORE. BEST WINDS WILL STAY WELL
ELEVATED OFF THE WATER SURFACE AS BROAD ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IS NOT
SUPPORTING THE HIGHER SPEEDS GETTING MIXED TO THE SURFACE. WILL
MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING SINCE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS PERSIST
THU MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW 20-25 KT NW-N WIND DEVELOPING
OVER THE N WATERS FRI EVENING THEN SPREADING FURTHER S OVERNIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE WIND TURNS
OFFSHORE SAT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT NEAR GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. WIND SPEEDS RELAX SUN.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SAT AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. JBONK/WEISHAAR

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST THURSDAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 270346
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
746 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY WITH
PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AS A
RESULT...AND WILL MONITOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA CLOSELY FOR DENSE
FOG. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN WITH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC LOW WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS MAY BRING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND IMPACT TRAVEL. PLEASE FIND MORE
INFORMATION IN PRODUCT SPSPDT AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 330 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS IT BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LEADING UP TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES BOTH DAY AND
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL.
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TURNING OVER TO SNOW AS
SNOW LEVELS LOWER RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SATURDAY MAINLY FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND AREAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. YET IN CENTRAL
OREGON...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5500 FEET...SO RAIN WILL
MIX IN DURING THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL RETREAT SOUTHWARD
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR COULD ALLOW ANY RAIN TO CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF A LOW
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...MOISTURE COULD
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FUELING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
OREGON AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE. DESPITE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BOTH DO BRING THE LOW INLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  COBB

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AT KYKM...BUT
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KPSC. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AGAIN AT
KYKM OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THE FOG. AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY 5-15 KTS.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  60  47  57 /  10  10  20  60
ALW  51  60  50  56 /  10  20  20  70
PSC  42  59  47  58 /  10  10  10  30
YKM  41  54  38  51 /  10  10  10  30
HRI  47  60  47  58 /  10  10  10  40
ELN  38  53  39  50 /  20  20  30  40
RDM  38  58  39  56 /  10  10  20  50
LGD  44  52  42  49 /  20  30  30  70
GCD  44  54  42  49 /  10  20  40  60
DLS  47  59  46  54 /  10  20  30  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

98/82/82






000
FXUS66 KPDT 270346
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
746 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY WITH
PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AS A
RESULT...AND WILL MONITOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA CLOSELY FOR DENSE
FOG. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN WITH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC LOW WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS MAY BRING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND IMPACT TRAVEL. PLEASE FIND MORE
INFORMATION IN PRODUCT SPSPDT AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 330 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS IT BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LEADING UP TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES BOTH DAY AND
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL.
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TURNING OVER TO SNOW AS
SNOW LEVELS LOWER RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SATURDAY MAINLY FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND AREAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. YET IN CENTRAL
OREGON...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5500 FEET...SO RAIN WILL
MIX IN DURING THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL RETREAT SOUTHWARD
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR COULD ALLOW ANY RAIN TO CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF A LOW
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...MOISTURE COULD
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FUELING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
OREGON AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE. DESPITE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BOTH DO BRING THE LOW INLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  COBB

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AT KYKM...BUT
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KPSC. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AGAIN AT
KYKM OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THE FOG. AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY 5-15 KTS.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  60  47  57 /  10  10  20  60
ALW  51  60  50  56 /  10  20  20  70
PSC  42  59  47  58 /  10  10  10  30
YKM  41  54  38  51 /  10  10  10  30
HRI  47  60  47  58 /  10  10  10  40
ELN  38  53  39  50 /  20  20  30  40
RDM  38  58  39  56 /  10  10  20  50
LGD  44  52  42  49 /  20  30  30  70
GCD  44  54  42  49 /  10  20  40  60
DLS  47  59  46  54 /  10  20  30  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

98/82/82






000
FXUS66 KPDT 270346
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
746 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY WITH
PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AS A
RESULT...AND WILL MONITOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA CLOSELY FOR DENSE
FOG. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN WITH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC LOW WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS MAY BRING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND IMPACT TRAVEL. PLEASE FIND MORE
INFORMATION IN PRODUCT SPSPDT AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 330 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS IT BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LEADING UP TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES BOTH DAY AND
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL.
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TURNING OVER TO SNOW AS
SNOW LEVELS LOWER RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SATURDAY MAINLY FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND AREAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. YET IN CENTRAL
OREGON...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5500 FEET...SO RAIN WILL
MIX IN DURING THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL RETREAT SOUTHWARD
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR COULD ALLOW ANY RAIN TO CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF A LOW
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...MOISTURE COULD
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FUELING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
OREGON AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE. DESPITE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BOTH DO BRING THE LOW INLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  COBB

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AT KYKM...BUT
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KPSC. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AGAIN AT
KYKM OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THE FOG. AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY 5-15 KTS.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  60  47  57 /  10  10  20  60
ALW  51  60  50  56 /  10  20  20  70
PSC  42  59  47  58 /  10  10  10  30
YKM  41  54  38  51 /  10  10  10  30
HRI  47  60  47  58 /  10  10  10  40
ELN  38  53  39  50 /  20  20  30  40
RDM  38  58  39  56 /  10  10  20  50
LGD  44  52  42  49 /  20  30  30  70
GCD  44  54  42  49 /  10  20  40  60
DLS  47  59  46  54 /  10  20  30  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

98/82/82





000
FXUS66 KPDT 270346
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
746 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY WITH
PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN. HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AS A
RESULT...AND WILL MONITOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA CLOSELY FOR DENSE
FOG. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN WITH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC LOW WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS MAY BRING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND IMPACT TRAVEL. PLEASE FIND MORE
INFORMATION IN PRODUCT SPSPDT AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 330 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS IT BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LEADING UP TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES BOTH DAY AND
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL.
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TURNING OVER TO SNOW AS
SNOW LEVELS LOWER RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SATURDAY MAINLY FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND AREAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. YET IN CENTRAL
OREGON...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5500 FEET...SO RAIN WILL
MIX IN DURING THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL RETREAT SOUTHWARD
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR COULD ALLOW ANY RAIN TO CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF A LOW
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...MOISTURE COULD
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FUELING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
OREGON AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE. DESPITE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BOTH DO BRING THE LOW INLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  COBB

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AT KYKM...BUT
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KPSC. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AGAIN AT
KYKM OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THE FOG. AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY 5-15 KTS.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  60  47  57 /  10  10  20  60
ALW  51  60  50  56 /  10  20  20  70
PSC  42  59  47  58 /  10  10  10  30
YKM  41  54  38  51 /  10  10  10  30
HRI  47  60  47  58 /  10  10  10  40
ELN  38  53  39  50 /  20  20  30  40
RDM  38  58  39  56 /  10  10  20  50
LGD  44  52  42  49 /  20  30  30  70
GCD  44  54  42  49 /  10  20  40  60
DLS  47  59  46  54 /  10  20  30  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

98/82/82





000
FXUS65 KBOI 270345
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST OFF
THE NW COAST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN GET HERE DUE
TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.  DRY MILD WX WILL
CONTINUE IN OUR CWA THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES.  A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL
COME SOUTH THROUGH BC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND OUR NRN ZONES WILL
DEFINITELY GET QUITE A BIT COLDER BY SUNDAY.  MODELS DIFFER ABOUT
WHETHER THE TROUGH WILL REACH OUR SRN ZONES...GFS SAYS NO...ECM SAYS
YES...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE COLDER ECM.  IF THE ECM
VERIFIES THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR SRN ZONES LATE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.  AFTERNOON FORECAST FAVORED THE COLDER
ECM AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG KMYL AND VICINITY.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS.  SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SPREADING INTO BAKER
COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MORNING...INCREASING TO A
CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO A KBNO-KONO-KSUN
LINE.  SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY
20 TO 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES /59 AT BOISE SO FAR/ AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST CANADA PUSHES SOUTH.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SE PART OF
THE GULF OF AK. TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WATER-VAPOR AND AIRCRAFT /
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID-
LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THE CANADIAN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID-LEVEL
WINDS FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT ARE POISED UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WHILE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
LOOM TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS FRIDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST TIMES THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A LINE
FROM BURNS TO BAKER AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND BE PASSING THROUGH THE
MAGIC VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 TO
6000 FT MSL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS TOWARDS THE
END OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SO MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY EXIST ONLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP...POSSIBLY 10-15 DEGREES...FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA...A CUTOFF LOW WILL POSITION ITSELF OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SEND A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS FRONT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
SOONER THAN THE ECMWF...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MANY VARIABLES.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN AS THAT CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...SO
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270345
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST OFF
THE NW COAST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN GET HERE DUE
TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.  DRY MILD WX WILL
CONTINUE IN OUR CWA THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES.  A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL
COME SOUTH THROUGH BC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND OUR NRN ZONES WILL
DEFINITELY GET QUITE A BIT COLDER BY SUNDAY.  MODELS DIFFER ABOUT
WHETHER THE TROUGH WILL REACH OUR SRN ZONES...GFS SAYS NO...ECM SAYS
YES...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE COLDER ECM.  IF THE ECM
VERIFIES THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR SRN ZONES LATE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.  AFTERNOON FORECAST FAVORED THE COLDER
ECM AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG KMYL AND VICINITY.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS.  SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SPREADING INTO BAKER
COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MORNING...INCREASING TO A
CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO A KBNO-KONO-KSUN
LINE.  SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY
20 TO 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES /59 AT BOISE SO FAR/ AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST CANADA PUSHES SOUTH.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SE PART OF
THE GULF OF AK. TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WATER-VAPOR AND AIRCRAFT /
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID-
LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THE CANADIAN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID-LEVEL
WINDS FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT ARE POISED UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WHILE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
LOOM TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS FRIDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST TIMES THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A LINE
FROM BURNS TO BAKER AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND BE PASSING THROUGH THE
MAGIC VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 TO
6000 FT MSL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS TOWARDS THE
END OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SO MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY EXIST ONLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP...POSSIBLY 10-15 DEGREES...FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA...A CUTOFF LOW WILL POSITION ITSELF OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SEND A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS FRONT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
SOONER THAN THE ECMWF...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MANY VARIABLES.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN AS THAT CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...SO
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270345
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST OFF
THE NW COAST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN GET HERE DUE
TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.  DRY MILD WX WILL
CONTINUE IN OUR CWA THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES.  A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL
COME SOUTH THROUGH BC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND OUR NRN ZONES WILL
DEFINITELY GET QUITE A BIT COLDER BY SUNDAY.  MODELS DIFFER ABOUT
WHETHER THE TROUGH WILL REACH OUR SRN ZONES...GFS SAYS NO...ECM SAYS
YES...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE COLDER ECM.  IF THE ECM
VERIFIES THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR SRN ZONES LATE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.  AFTERNOON FORECAST FAVORED THE COLDER
ECM AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG KMYL AND VICINITY.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS.  SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SPREADING INTO BAKER
COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MORNING...INCREASING TO A
CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO A KBNO-KONO-KSUN
LINE.  SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY
20 TO 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES /59 AT BOISE SO FAR/ AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST CANADA PUSHES SOUTH.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SE PART OF
THE GULF OF AK. TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WATER-VAPOR AND AIRCRAFT /
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID-
LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THE CANADIAN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID-LEVEL
WINDS FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT ARE POISED UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WHILE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
LOOM TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS FRIDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST TIMES THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A LINE
FROM BURNS TO BAKER AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND BE PASSING THROUGH THE
MAGIC VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 TO
6000 FT MSL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS TOWARDS THE
END OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SO MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY EXIST ONLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP...POSSIBLY 10-15 DEGREES...FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA...A CUTOFF LOW WILL POSITION ITSELF OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SEND A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS FRONT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
SOONER THAN THE ECMWF...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MANY VARIABLES.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN AS THAT CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...SO
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270345
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST OFF
THE NW COAST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN GET HERE DUE
TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.  DRY MILD WX WILL
CONTINUE IN OUR CWA THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES.  A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL
COME SOUTH THROUGH BC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND OUR NRN ZONES WILL
DEFINITELY GET QUITE A BIT COLDER BY SUNDAY.  MODELS DIFFER ABOUT
WHETHER THE TROUGH WILL REACH OUR SRN ZONES...GFS SAYS NO...ECM SAYS
YES...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE COLDER ECM.  IF THE ECM
VERIFIES THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR SRN ZONES LATE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.  AFTERNOON FORECAST FAVORED THE COLDER
ECM AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG KMYL AND VICINITY.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS.  SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SPREADING INTO BAKER
COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MORNING...INCREASING TO A
CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO A KBNO-KONO-KSUN
LINE.  SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY
20 TO 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES /59 AT BOISE SO FAR/ AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST CANADA PUSHES SOUTH.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SE PART OF
THE GULF OF AK. TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WATER-VAPOR AND AIRCRAFT /
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID-
LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THE CANADIAN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID-LEVEL
WINDS FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT ARE POISED UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WHILE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
LOOM TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS FRIDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST TIMES THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A LINE
FROM BURNS TO BAKER AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND BE PASSING THROUGH THE
MAGIC VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 TO
6000 FT MSL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS TOWARDS THE
END OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SO MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY EXIST ONLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP...POSSIBLY 10-15 DEGREES...FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA...A CUTOFF LOW WILL POSITION ITSELF OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SEND A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS FRONT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
SOONER THAN THE ECMWF...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MANY VARIABLES.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN AS THAT CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...SO
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270345
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST OFF
THE NW COAST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN GET HERE DUE
TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.  DRY MILD WX WILL
CONTINUE IN OUR CWA THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES.  A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL
COME SOUTH THROUGH BC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND OUR NRN ZONES WILL
DEFINITELY GET QUITE A BIT COLDER BY SUNDAY.  MODELS DIFFER ABOUT
WHETHER THE TROUGH WILL REACH OUR SRN ZONES...GFS SAYS NO...ECM SAYS
YES...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE COLDER ECM.  IF THE ECM
VERIFIES THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR SRN ZONES LATE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.  AFTERNOON FORECAST FAVORED THE COLDER
ECM AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG KMYL AND VICINITY.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS.  SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SPREADING INTO BAKER
COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MORNING...INCREASING TO A
CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO A KBNO-KONO-KSUN
LINE.  SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY
20 TO 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES /59 AT BOISE SO FAR/ AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST CANADA PUSHES SOUTH.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SE PART OF
THE GULF OF AK. TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WATER-VAPOR AND AIRCRAFT /
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID-
LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THE CANADIAN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID-LEVEL
WINDS FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT ARE POISED UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WHILE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
LOOM TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS FRIDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST TIMES THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A LINE
FROM BURNS TO BAKER AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND BE PASSING THROUGH THE
MAGIC VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 TO
6000 FT MSL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS TOWARDS THE
END OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SO MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY EXIST ONLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP...POSSIBLY 10-15 DEGREES...FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA...A CUTOFF LOW WILL POSITION ITSELF OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SEND A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS FRONT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
SOONER THAN THE ECMWF...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MANY VARIABLES.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN AS THAT CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...SO
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 270345
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST OFF
THE NW COAST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN GET HERE DUE
TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.  DRY MILD WX WILL
CONTINUE IN OUR CWA THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES.  A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL
COME SOUTH THROUGH BC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND OUR NRN ZONES WILL
DEFINITELY GET QUITE A BIT COLDER BY SUNDAY.  MODELS DIFFER ABOUT
WHETHER THE TROUGH WILL REACH OUR SRN ZONES...GFS SAYS NO...ECM SAYS
YES...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE COLDER ECM.  IF THE ECM
VERIFIES THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR SRN ZONES LATE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.  AFTERNOON FORECAST FAVORED THE COLDER
ECM AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG KMYL AND VICINITY.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS.  SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SPREADING INTO BAKER
COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MORNING...INCREASING TO A
CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO A KBNO-KONO-KSUN
LINE.  SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY
20 TO 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES /59 AT BOISE SO FAR/ AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST CANADA PUSHES SOUTH.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SE PART OF
THE GULF OF AK. TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WATER-VAPOR AND AIRCRAFT /
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID-
LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THE CANADIAN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID-LEVEL
WINDS FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT ARE POISED UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WHILE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
LOOM TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS FRIDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST TIMES THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A LINE
FROM BURNS TO BAKER AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND BE PASSING THROUGH THE
MAGIC VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 TO
6000 FT MSL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS TOWARDS THE
END OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SO MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY EXIST ONLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP...POSSIBLY 10-15 DEGREES...FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA...A CUTOFF LOW WILL POSITION ITSELF OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SEND A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS FRONT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
SOONER THAN THE ECMWF...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MANY VARIABLES.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN AS THAT CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...SO
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270328
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
728 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT COULD SURFACE FOR A FEW
HOURS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN FAVORED LOCATION SUCH AS THE
PART OF HWY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER LAKE AND PAISLEY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH RAIN SPREADING
INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY BY LATE MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW
A GOOD SOUTHWEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO CURRY COUNTY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LYING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK AND FORTH. AS A RESULT
WE WILL SEE MORE OR LESS PROLONGED RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON
AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY, THE KLAMATH AND GOOSE
LAKE BASINS INCLUDED. SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE 6000 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE PASSES.

ON FRIDAY..ALSO EXPECT MODERATELY SE-NW SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE SHASTA VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE
ROGUE VALLEY BUT SOUTH END OF JACKSON COUNTY SUCH AS ASHLAND COULD
SEE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON FRIDAY. MOREOVER WINDS AT 700MB INCREASE
TO AROUND 50KTS AND THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WARNER MOUNTAINS
AND PART OF HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER LAKE AND PAISLEY IN LAKE
COUNTY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
OREGON. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS CHEMULT OR SILVER LAKE. THIS WILL PRESENT A FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR SUNDAY AS WE ARE EXPECTING A WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUSHING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. /FB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF A POTENT LOW PRESSURE CENTER BY ROUGHLY 24
HOURS. THIS HAS PUSHED A POTENTIAL HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT FOR AREAS IN
AND AROUND MT SHASTA CITY AWAY FROM THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY OF SUNDAY,
AND INSTEAD IS FOCUSING THE EVENT MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AGAIN, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT A LARGE, VERY MOIST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND OTHER DETAILS REMAINS MUCH LOWER.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW STATIONED
WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA, BUT A WAVE ORBITING THIS LOW WILL PUSH
A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA, AND DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND THE
EXTENT OF COLD AIR REMAINING TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE, COULD RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF SNOW OR POTENTIALLY EVEN SOME ICE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EAST SIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN THIS
SCENARIO, BUT IT DOES BARE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE LOW ITSELF WILL FINALLY PUSH ASHORE
SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A VERY RICH
PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING UP THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA INTO
THE SHASTA HIGHLANDS. THE SAME CONCERNS REMAIN TODAY AS YESTERDAY,
FOCUSING ON THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION, AND
THE QUESTION OF HOW FAR WILL SNOW LEVELS DROP IN THAT AREA. SIMILAR
EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY WET SNOW EVENTS IN THE
AREA OF MT SHASTA, AND THE SAME POTENTIAL EXISTS HERE, THUS THIS
EVENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL.

WHATEVER THE RESULTING CHAIN OF EVENTS BRINGS, THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED TERM, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 1000FT AND 2500FT AGL ON THE MEDFORD
AFTERNOON SOUNDING CONTINUES TO TRAP LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE BELOW
IT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE DESPITE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS JUST
ABOVE IT. DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA, WE DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AS EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE
AND DURATION TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING AS IT WAS THIS
PAST MORNING. WE DO STILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS FROM 03Z
THROUGH 19Z, PARTICULARLY IN THE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. OTHERWISE, THE
INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECT TO RESULT IN MVFR CEILING
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND
AND THE INVERSION WEAKENS. RAIN WILL PUSH ONTO THE COAST AND THE
WEST SIDE OF OREGON DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014... SOUTH WINDS AND WIND
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
CHAOTIC...BUILDING TO A STEEP TO VERY STEEP 10 TO 15 FEET. ANOTHER
FRONTAL WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO SURGE UPWARD
AGAIN. SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND WIND.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/BPN/BTL



000
FXUS66 KMFR 270328
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
728 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT COULD SURFACE FOR A FEW
HOURS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN FAVORED LOCATION SUCH AS THE
PART OF HWY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER LAKE AND PAISLEY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH RAIN SPREADING
INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY BY LATE MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW
A GOOD SOUTHWEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO CURRY COUNTY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LYING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK AND FORTH. AS A RESULT
WE WILL SEE MORE OR LESS PROLONGED RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON
AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY, THE KLAMATH AND GOOSE
LAKE BASINS INCLUDED. SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE 6000 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE PASSES.

ON FRIDAY..ALSO EXPECT MODERATELY SE-NW SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE SHASTA VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE
ROGUE VALLEY BUT SOUTH END OF JACKSON COUNTY SUCH AS ASHLAND COULD
SEE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON FRIDAY. MOREOVER WINDS AT 700MB INCREASE
TO AROUND 50KTS AND THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WARNER MOUNTAINS
AND PART OF HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER LAKE AND PAISLEY IN LAKE
COUNTY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
OREGON. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS CHEMULT OR SILVER LAKE. THIS WILL PRESENT A FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR SUNDAY AS WE ARE EXPECTING A WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUSHING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. /FB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF A POTENT LOW PRESSURE CENTER BY ROUGHLY 24
HOURS. THIS HAS PUSHED A POTENTIAL HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT FOR AREAS IN
AND AROUND MT SHASTA CITY AWAY FROM THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY OF SUNDAY,
AND INSTEAD IS FOCUSING THE EVENT MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AGAIN, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT A LARGE, VERY MOIST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND OTHER DETAILS REMAINS MUCH LOWER.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW STATIONED
WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA, BUT A WAVE ORBITING THIS LOW WILL PUSH
A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA, AND DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND THE
EXTENT OF COLD AIR REMAINING TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE, COULD RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF SNOW OR POTENTIALLY EVEN SOME ICE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EAST SIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN THIS
SCENARIO, BUT IT DOES BARE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE LOW ITSELF WILL FINALLY PUSH ASHORE
SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A VERY RICH
PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING UP THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA INTO
THE SHASTA HIGHLANDS. THE SAME CONCERNS REMAIN TODAY AS YESTERDAY,
FOCUSING ON THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION, AND
THE QUESTION OF HOW FAR WILL SNOW LEVELS DROP IN THAT AREA. SIMILAR
EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY WET SNOW EVENTS IN THE
AREA OF MT SHASTA, AND THE SAME POTENTIAL EXISTS HERE, THUS THIS
EVENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL.

WHATEVER THE RESULTING CHAIN OF EVENTS BRINGS, THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED TERM, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 1000FT AND 2500FT AGL ON THE MEDFORD
AFTERNOON SOUNDING CONTINUES TO TRAP LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE BELOW
IT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE DESPITE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS JUST
ABOVE IT. DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA, WE DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AS EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE
AND DURATION TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING AS IT WAS THIS
PAST MORNING. WE DO STILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS FROM 03Z
THROUGH 19Z, PARTICULARLY IN THE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. OTHERWISE, THE
INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECT TO RESULT IN MVFR CEILING
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND
AND THE INVERSION WEAKENS. RAIN WILL PUSH ONTO THE COAST AND THE
WEST SIDE OF OREGON DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014... SOUTH WINDS AND WIND
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
CHAOTIC...BUILDING TO A STEEP TO VERY STEEP 10 TO 15 FEET. ANOTHER
FRONTAL WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO SURGE UPWARD
AGAIN. SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND WIND.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/BPN/BTL




000
FXUS66 KPDT 262331 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
330 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS IT BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPTATION
LEADING UP TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPTATION WILL COME AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES BOTH DAY AND
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL.
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TURNING OVER TO SNOW AS
SNOW LEVELS LOWER RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SATURDAY MAINLY FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND AREAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. YET IN CENTRAL
OREGON...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5500 FEET...SO RAIN WILL
MIX IN DURING THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL RETREAT SOUTHWARD
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR COULD ALLOW ANY RAIN TO CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF A LOW
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...MOISTURE COULD
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FUELING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
OREGON AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE. DESPITE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BOTH DO BRING THE LOW INLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AT KYKM...BUT
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KPSC. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AGAIN AT
KYKM OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THE FOG. AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY 5-15 KTS.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  59  47  57 /  10  10  20  60
ALW  51  60  50  56 /  10  20  20  70
PSC  47  60  47  58 /  10  10  10  30
YKM  41  54  38  51 /  10  10  10  30
HRI  47  60  47  58 /  10  10  10  40
ELN  41  54  39  50 /  20  20  30  40
RDM  37  59  39  56 /  10  10  20  50
LGD  45  52  42  49 /  20  20  30  70
GCD  44  54  43  49 /  10  20  30  60
DLS  47  59  46  54 /  10  20  30  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82







000
FXUS66 KPDT 262331 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
330 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS IT BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPTATION
LEADING UP TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPTATION WILL COME AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES BOTH DAY AND
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL.
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TURNING OVER TO SNOW AS
SNOW LEVELS LOWER RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION SATURDAY MAINLY FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS AND AREAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OREGON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. YET IN CENTRAL
OREGON...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 5500 FEET...SO RAIN WILL
MIX IN DURING THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL RETREAT SOUTHWARD
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR COULD ALLOW ANY RAIN TO CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF A LOW
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...MOISTURE COULD
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FUELING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
OREGON AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CORRECT...MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE. DESPITE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BOTH DO BRING THE LOW INLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AT KYKM...BUT
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KPSC. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AGAIN AT
KYKM OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THE FOG. AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY 5-15 KTS.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  59  47  57 /  10  10  20  60
ALW  51  60  50  56 /  10  20  20  70
PSC  47  60  47  58 /  10  10  10  30
YKM  41  54  38  51 /  10  10  10  30
HRI  47  60  47  58 /  10  10  10  40
ELN  41  54  39  50 /  20  20  30  40
RDM  37  59  39  56 /  10  10  20  50
LGD  45  52  42  49 /  20  20  30  70
GCD  44  54  43  49 /  10  20  30  60
DLS  47  59  46  54 /  10  20  30  70

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

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