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000
FXUS66 KPDT 261220 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
420 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STAGNANT PRESSURE
PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD THUS PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS.

A PERSISTENT MID/HIGH LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED THE PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
THAT THE MODELS YESTERDAY HAD SHOWN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, TO THE POINT THAT AT BEST IT WILL YIELD JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CRESTS OF THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON
CASCADES. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO TRAP MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS PRODUCING LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. PATCHY
FOG WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CLOUDS WITH FOG BECOMING
THICKER OVERNIGHT FOR EACH DAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS, THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON, THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE, THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS OF OREGON AND
THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS OF WASHINGTON. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST TODAY FOR THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  POLAN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. 850MB TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS SO TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT UP THROUGH THIS POINT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY DIVERGE SOME ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS
FASTER TO BRING THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THROUGH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND EURO AND GO WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY. 94

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COLUMBIA BASIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY RISE A LITTLE. TAF SITES IMPACTED WILL BE PSC YKM ALW
PDT DLS. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL OREGON THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR RDM BDN. 94

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  35  48  39 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  40  37  42  39 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  42  34  41  33 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  41  32  44  31 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  46  31  43  34 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  43  34  46  34 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  64  36  56  38 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  34  48  35 /   0   0  10  10
GCD  57  34  51  37 /   0   0  10  10
DLS  51  38  48  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY ORZ041-044-507.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY WAZ024-026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

99/94/94






000
FXUS66 KPDT 261156 CCA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
355 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STAGNANT PRESSURE
PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD THUS PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS.

A PERSISTENT MID/HIGH LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED THE PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
THAT THE MODELS YESTERDAY HAD SHOWN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, TO THE POINT THAT AT BEST IT WILL YIELD JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CRESTS OF THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON
CASCADES. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO TRAP MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS PRODUCING LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. PATCHY
FOG WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CLOUDS WITH FOG BECOMING
THICKER OVERNIGHT FOR EACH DAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS,
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, THE EASTERN COLUMBIA GORGE AND THE
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  POLAN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. 850MB TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS SO TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT UP THROUGH THIS POINT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY DIVERGE SOME ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS
FASTER TO BRING THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THROUGH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND EURO AND GO WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY. 94

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COLUMBIA BASIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY RISE A LITTLE. TAF SITES IMPACTED WILL BE PSC YKM ALW
PDT DLS. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL OREGON THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR RDM BDN. 94

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  35  48  39 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  40  37  42  39 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  42  34  41  33 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  41  32  44  31 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  46  31  43  34 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  43  34  46  34 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  64  36  56  38 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  34  48  35 /   0   0  10  10
GCD  57  34  51  37 /   0   0  10  10
DLS  51  38  48  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY ORZ041-044-507.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY WAZ024-026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

99/94/94







000
FXUS66 KPDT 261156 CCA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
355 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STAGNANT PRESSURE
PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD THUS PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS.

A PERSISTENT MID/HIGH LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED THE PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
THAT THE MODELS YESTERDAY HAD SHOWN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, TO THE POINT THAT AT BEST IT WILL YIELD JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CRESTS OF THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON
CASCADES. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO TRAP MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS PRODUCING LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. PATCHY
FOG WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CLOUDS WITH FOG BECOMING
THICKER OVERNIGHT FOR EACH DAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS,
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, THE EASTERN COLUMBIA GORGE AND THE
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  POLAN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. 850MB TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS SO TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT UP THROUGH THIS POINT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY DIVERGE SOME ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS
FASTER TO BRING THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THROUGH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND EURO AND GO WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY. 94

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COLUMBIA BASIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY RISE A LITTLE. TAF SITES IMPACTED WILL BE PSC YKM ALW
PDT DLS. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL OREGON THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR RDM BDN. 94

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  35  48  39 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  40  37  42  39 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  42  34  41  33 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  41  32  44  31 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  46  31  43  34 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  43  34  46  34 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  64  36  56  38 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  34  48  35 /   0   0  10  10
GCD  57  34  51  37 /   0   0  10  10
DLS  51  38  48  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY ORZ041-044-507.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY WAZ024-026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

99/94/94





  [top]

000
FXUS66 KMFR 261124
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
324 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM PST THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG HAS
FORMED IN THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THROUGH
THE ROGUE VALLEY. FOG CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, THE
APPLEGATE VALLEY AND THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY AND SCOTT VALLEY IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WE
ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. I HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND HAVE TO TIME THE ONSET OF THE DENSE FOG
CLOSER TO SUNRISE OR AROUND 6AM. TIMING AND DURATION WILL BE
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING THE LAST FEW DAYS. FOG MAY
AGAIN BE QUITE PERSISTENT IN THE GRANTS PASS AREA TODAY.

THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TIMEHEIGHTS OF THE AREA SHOWS
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB COMING DOWN FROM YESTERDAY WITH THE FORECAST
CALLING FOR MORE COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING
RIDGE ALLOWS UPSTREAM FRONT TO APPROACH COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY.
AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT THE SAME TIME. THE MOISTURE FROM
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCE TO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNT WITH THESE TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BE VERY LIGHT..MORE
LIGHT SHOWERS AND MORE CLOUD COVER. THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT TRACKS
INTO NEVADA. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND POSSIBLE IN THE CRATER LAKE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MEDFORD.

THE CURRENT AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WE WILL NEED TO EVALUATE IF THE DISTURBANCE IS ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
INVERSION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
NOSE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS
ABOUT 25 MILES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING, AND ALTHOUGH MODELS BRING
IT NEAR THE NORTH COAST BY AROUND 26/12Z, CURRENT BEHAVIOR OF THE
DECK WOULD SUGGEST IT STAYS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  HOWEVER,
FOG/STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS MAY FORM LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE, AND WHAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. FOG WITH LIFR CIGS/VIS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN BEFORE DAWN MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH LATE
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. -BPN/WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 745 PM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...SWELL HAS NOT
BEEN AS HIGH AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE
NORTH, HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW



000
FXUS66 KMFR 261124
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
324 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM PST THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG HAS
FORMED IN THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THROUGH
THE ROGUE VALLEY. FOG CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, THE
APPLEGATE VALLEY AND THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY AND SCOTT VALLEY IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WE
ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. I HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND HAVE TO TIME THE ONSET OF THE DENSE FOG
CLOSER TO SUNRISE OR AROUND 6AM. TIMING AND DURATION WILL BE
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING THE LAST FEW DAYS. FOG MAY
AGAIN BE QUITE PERSISTENT IN THE GRANTS PASS AREA TODAY.

THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TIMEHEIGHTS OF THE AREA SHOWS
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB COMING DOWN FROM YESTERDAY WITH THE FORECAST
CALLING FOR MORE COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING
RIDGE ALLOWS UPSTREAM FRONT TO APPROACH COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY.
AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT THE SAME TIME. THE MOISTURE FROM
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCE TO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNT WITH THESE TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BE VERY LIGHT..MORE
LIGHT SHOWERS AND MORE CLOUD COVER. THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT TRACKS
INTO NEVADA. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND POSSIBLE IN THE CRATER LAKE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MEDFORD.

THE CURRENT AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WE WILL NEED TO EVALUATE IF THE DISTURBANCE IS ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
INVERSION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
NOSE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS
ABOUT 25 MILES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING, AND ALTHOUGH MODELS BRING
IT NEAR THE NORTH COAST BY AROUND 26/12Z, CURRENT BEHAVIOR OF THE
DECK WOULD SUGGEST IT STAYS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  HOWEVER,
FOG/STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS MAY FORM LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE, AND WHAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. FOG WITH LIFR CIGS/VIS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN BEFORE DAWN MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH LATE
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. -BPN/WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 745 PM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...SWELL HAS NOT
BEEN AS HIGH AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE
NORTH, HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW




000
FXUS66 KPDT 261109 CCA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STAGNANT PRESSURE
PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD THUS PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS.

A PERSISTENT MID/HIGH LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED THE PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
THAT THE MODELS YESTERDAY HAD SHOWN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, TO THE POINT THAT AT BEST IT WILL YIELD JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CRESTS OF THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON
CASCADES. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO TRAP MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS PRODUCING LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. PATCHY
FOG WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CLOUDS WITH FOG BECOMING
THICKER OVERNIGHT FOR EACH DAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS,
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, THE EASTERN COLUMBIA GORGE AND THE
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.  POLAN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. 850MB TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS SO TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT UP THROUGH THIS POINT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY DIVERGE SOME ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS
FASTER TO BRING THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THROUGH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND EURO AND GO WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY. 94

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT AT KPDT...KRDM AND KBDN DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE FOG
WILL LIFT AND/OR BURN OFF BY NOON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  35  48  39 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  40  37  42  39 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  42  34  41  33 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  41  32  44  31 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  46  31  43  34 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  43  34  46  34 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  64  36  56  38 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  34  48  35 /   0   0  10  10
GCD  57  34  51  37 /   0   0  10  10
DLS  51  38  48  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY ORZ041-044-507.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY WAZ024-026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

99/94/94












000
FXUS66 KPDT 261100
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STAGNANT PRESSURE
PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD THUS PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS.

A PERSISTENT MID/HIGH LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS  HAVE CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED THE PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
THAT THE MODELS YESTERDAY HAD SHOWN BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TO THE POINT
THAT AT BEST IT WILL YIELD JUST A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CRESTS
OF THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES SYSTEM AS WELL AS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS
PRODUCING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS WITH FOG BECOMING THICKER OVERNIGHT FOR EACH DAY. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE KITTITAS
AND YAKIMA VALLEYS, THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN , THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
GORGE AND THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS.  POLAN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. 850MB TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS SO TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT UP THROUGH THIS POINT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY DIVERGE SOME ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS
FASTER TO BRING THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THROUGH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND EURO AND GO WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY. 94

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT AT KPDT...KRDM AND KBDN DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE FOG
WILL LIFT AND/OR BURN OFF BY NOON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  35  48  39 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  40  37  42  39 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  42  34  41  33 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  41  32  44  31 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  46  31  43  34 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  43  34  46  34 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  64  36  56  38 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  34  48  35 /   0   0  10  10
GCD  57  34  51  37 /   0   0  10  10
DLS  51  38  48  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY ORZ041-044-507.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY WAZ024-026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

99/94/94









000
FXUS66 KPDT 261100
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STAGNANT PRESSURE
PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND AT MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD THUS PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS.

A PERSISTENT MID/HIGH LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS  HAVE CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED THE PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
THAT THE MODELS YESTERDAY HAD SHOWN BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TO THE POINT
THAT AT BEST IT WILL YIELD JUST A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CRESTS
OF THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES SYSTEM AS WELL AS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS
PRODUCING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS WITH FOG BECOMING THICKER OVERNIGHT FOR EACH DAY. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE KITTITAS
AND YAKIMA VALLEYS, THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN , THE EASTERN COLUMBIA
GORGE AND THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS.  POLAN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. 850MB TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS SO TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT UP THROUGH THIS POINT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY DIVERGE SOME ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS
FASTER TO BRING THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THROUGH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND EURO AND GO WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY. 94

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT AT KPDT...KRDM AND KBDN DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE FOG
WILL LIFT AND/OR BURN OFF BY NOON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  35  48  39 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  40  37  42  39 /   0   0   0  10
PSC  42  34  41  33 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  41  32  44  31 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  46  31  43  34 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  43  34  46  34 /   0   0  10  10
RDM  64  36  56  38 /   0   0  10  10
LGD  48  34  48  35 /   0   0  10  10
GCD  57  34  51  37 /   0   0  10  10
DLS  51  38  48  39 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY ORZ041-044-507.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY WAZ024-026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

99/94/94







  [top]

000
FXUS66 KPQR 261040
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY TO THE E TODAY...WEAKENING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION LATER
TODAY. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA THROUGH WED. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW LATE
IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL IMAGERY
INDICATED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXTENDING FROM
THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN SW WA S THROUGH THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND
WILLAMETTE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS WAS SEEN RATHER
DRASTICALLY IN THE 00Z SLE SOUNDING SUN AFTERNOON...A VERY STRONG
INVERSION WAS THE CAUSE OF THE FOG TRAPPED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
WHILE ABOVE ABOUT 1K FT CONDITIONS WERE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER. WATER
VAPOR PICTURES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE WAS STILL
IN PLACE OVER OREGON FOR CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS...BUT MODELS
ALL EXPECT THE RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE RAPIDLY E TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A WEAKENING INVERSION. MANY AREAS WERE STILL REPORTING
VISIBILITES AT OR BELOW A QUARTER MILE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION WEAKENS
TODAY...IT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE INLAND STRATUS
EVERYWHERE SO ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH WARMER ALTOUGH NOT QUITE SO WARM TEMPS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE INLAND SURFACE HIGH TODAY...MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A SWITCH TO SSW ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
TODAY. THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPS ON THE COAST TODAY...AND WILL
ULTIMATELY PUSH SOME MARINE CLOUDS ONTO THE COAST AND SLOWLY SPREAD
THEM INLAND TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES...A RATHER FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH WED.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DECAYING FRONT SAGGING
DOWN INTO THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGERING THROUGH WED. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THERE IS SOME
DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE OVER THE N COASTAL AREAS WITH THIS BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHILE FURTHER TO THE S AND E MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOWER. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WED...AND TAPER OFF ANY CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FURTHER TO THE S AND E. THE RETURN TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE LATE WED NIGHT MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST
AND COAST RANGE AND INTO SW WASHINGTON. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT REBUILDS ON THU AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS BUT BRING DAILY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT INLAND SOME
TIME NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS WILL BE
SAT OR SUN. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH RESTRICTED TO LOWER END CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN GIVEN THE SUPPORT FOR THE LATER TIMING FROM THE ECMWF AND
NUMEROUS GEFS MEMBERS. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND A STRONG INVERSION HAVE LED TO MOST
TAF SITES DROPPING DOWN INTO LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT KEUG
AND KSLE TO EXPERIENCE THESE REDUCTIONS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KHIO MAY ALSO FALL INTO THIS CATEGORY.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS POURING OUT OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE ARE
CURRENTLY PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS AT KPDX AND KTTD. THESE EAST
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY...AND IF THE LIFR/IFR FOG DOES NOT
RETURN TO THESE SITES LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT REDUCTIONS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS ALSO PUSHING
NORTHWARD OFFSHORE. STRATUS OFF THE COAST SHOULD PUSH ASHORE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO KAST AND KONP.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF IT
RIGHT NOW SO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF WHEN THESE REDUCTIONS
WILL OCCUR IS HIGH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIGHT EAST WINDS POURING OUT OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE CONTINUE TO BRING A MIX OF VFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO
THE TERMINAL. EXPECT THE EAST WINDS TO DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES SHOULD ALLOW IFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN LATER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING
OF WHEN THE SWITCHES FROM VFR TO LIFR/IFR WILL OCCUR. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY WIND SURGE IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AND MAY
LEAD TO BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
ACROSS THE WATERS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE WATERS ON TUESDAY...BUT HAVE
LITTLE APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO MARINE INTERESTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE WATERS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY SUBSIDE DURING
THIS TIME...AND END UP WELL BELOW 10 FT. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
A MORE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS TO INCREASE. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 AM
     THIS MORNING TO NOON PST TODAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261040
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY TO THE E TODAY...WEAKENING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION LATER
TODAY. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA THROUGH WED. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW LATE
IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL IMAGERY
INDICATED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXTENDING FROM
THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN SW WA S THROUGH THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND
WILLAMETTE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS WAS SEEN RATHER
DRASTICALLY IN THE 00Z SLE SOUNDING SUN AFTERNOON...A VERY STRONG
INVERSION WAS THE CAUSE OF THE FOG TRAPPED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
WHILE ABOVE ABOUT 1K FT CONDITIONS WERE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER. WATER
VAPOR PICTURES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE WAS STILL
IN PLACE OVER OREGON FOR CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS...BUT MODELS
ALL EXPECT THE RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE RAPIDLY E TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A WEAKENING INVERSION. MANY AREAS WERE STILL REPORTING
VISIBILITES AT OR BELOW A QUARTER MILE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION WEAKENS
TODAY...IT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE INLAND STRATUS
EVERYWHERE SO ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH WARMER ALTOUGH NOT QUITE SO WARM TEMPS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE INLAND SURFACE HIGH TODAY...MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A SWITCH TO SSW ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
TODAY. THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPS ON THE COAST TODAY...AND WILL
ULTIMATELY PUSH SOME MARINE CLOUDS ONTO THE COAST AND SLOWLY SPREAD
THEM INLAND TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES...A RATHER FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH WED.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DECAYING FRONT SAGGING
DOWN INTO THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGERING THROUGH WED. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THERE IS SOME
DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE OVER THE N COASTAL AREAS WITH THIS BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHILE FURTHER TO THE S AND E MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOWER. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WED...AND TAPER OFF ANY CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FURTHER TO THE S AND E. THE RETURN TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE LATE WED NIGHT MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST
AND COAST RANGE AND INTO SW WASHINGTON. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT REBUILDS ON THU AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS BUT BRING DAILY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT INLAND SOME
TIME NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS WILL BE
SAT OR SUN. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH RESTRICTED TO LOWER END CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN GIVEN THE SUPPORT FOR THE LATER TIMING FROM THE ECMWF AND
NUMEROUS GEFS MEMBERS. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND A STRONG INVERSION HAVE LED TO MOST
TAF SITES DROPPING DOWN INTO LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT KEUG
AND KSLE TO EXPERIENCE THESE REDUCTIONS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KHIO MAY ALSO FALL INTO THIS CATEGORY.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS POURING OUT OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE ARE
CURRENTLY PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS AT KPDX AND KTTD. THESE EAST
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY...AND IF THE LIFR/IFR FOG DOES NOT
RETURN TO THESE SITES LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT REDUCTIONS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS ALSO PUSHING
NORTHWARD OFFSHORE. STRATUS OFF THE COAST SHOULD PUSH ASHORE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO KAST AND KONP.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF IT
RIGHT NOW SO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF WHEN THESE REDUCTIONS
WILL OCCUR IS HIGH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIGHT EAST WINDS POURING OUT OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE CONTINUE TO BRING A MIX OF VFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO
THE TERMINAL. EXPECT THE EAST WINDS TO DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES SHOULD ALLOW IFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN LATER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING
OF WHEN THE SWITCHES FROM VFR TO LIFR/IFR WILL OCCUR. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY WIND SURGE IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AND MAY
LEAD TO BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
ACROSS THE WATERS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE WATERS ON TUESDAY...BUT HAVE
LITTLE APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO MARINE INTERESTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE WATERS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY SUBSIDE DURING
THIS TIME...AND END UP WELL BELOW 10 FT. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
A MORE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS TO INCREASE. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 AM
     THIS MORNING TO NOON PST TODAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261040
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY TO THE E TODAY...WEAKENING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION LATER
TODAY. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA THROUGH WED. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW LATE
IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL IMAGERY
INDICATED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXTENDING FROM
THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN SW WA S THROUGH THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND
WILLAMETTE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS WAS SEEN RATHER
DRASTICALLY IN THE 00Z SLE SOUNDING SUN AFTERNOON...A VERY STRONG
INVERSION WAS THE CAUSE OF THE FOG TRAPPED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
WHILE ABOVE ABOUT 1K FT CONDITIONS WERE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER. WATER
VAPOR PICTURES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE WAS STILL
IN PLACE OVER OREGON FOR CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS...BUT MODELS
ALL EXPECT THE RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE RAPIDLY E TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A WEAKENING INVERSION. MANY AREAS WERE STILL REPORTING
VISIBILITES AT OR BELOW A QUARTER MILE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION WEAKENS
TODAY...IT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE INLAND STRATUS
EVERYWHERE SO ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH WARMER ALTOUGH NOT QUITE SO WARM TEMPS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE INLAND SURFACE HIGH TODAY...MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A SWITCH TO SSW ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
TODAY. THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPS ON THE COAST TODAY...AND WILL
ULTIMATELY PUSH SOME MARINE CLOUDS ONTO THE COAST AND SLOWLY SPREAD
THEM INLAND TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES...A RATHER FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH WED.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DECAYING FRONT SAGGING
DOWN INTO THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGERING THROUGH WED. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THERE IS SOME
DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE OVER THE N COASTAL AREAS WITH THIS BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHILE FURTHER TO THE S AND E MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOWER. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WED...AND TAPER OFF ANY CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FURTHER TO THE S AND E. THE RETURN TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE LATE WED NIGHT MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST
AND COAST RANGE AND INTO SW WASHINGTON. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT REBUILDS ON THU AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS BUT BRING DAILY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT INLAND SOME
TIME NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS WILL BE
SAT OR SUN. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH RESTRICTED TO LOWER END CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN GIVEN THE SUPPORT FOR THE LATER TIMING FROM THE ECMWF AND
NUMEROUS GEFS MEMBERS. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND A STRONG INVERSION HAVE LED TO MOST
TAF SITES DROPPING DOWN INTO LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT KEUG
AND KSLE TO EXPERIENCE THESE REDUCTIONS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KHIO MAY ALSO FALL INTO THIS CATEGORY.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS POURING OUT OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE ARE
CURRENTLY PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS AT KPDX AND KTTD. THESE EAST
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY...AND IF THE LIFR/IFR FOG DOES NOT
RETURN TO THESE SITES LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT REDUCTIONS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS ALSO PUSHING
NORTHWARD OFFSHORE. STRATUS OFF THE COAST SHOULD PUSH ASHORE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO KAST AND KONP.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF IT
RIGHT NOW SO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF WHEN THESE REDUCTIONS
WILL OCCUR IS HIGH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIGHT EAST WINDS POURING OUT OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE CONTINUE TO BRING A MIX OF VFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO
THE TERMINAL. EXPECT THE EAST WINDS TO DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES SHOULD ALLOW IFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN LATER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING
OF WHEN THE SWITCHES FROM VFR TO LIFR/IFR WILL OCCUR. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY WIND SURGE IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AND MAY
LEAD TO BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
ACROSS THE WATERS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE WATERS ON TUESDAY...BUT HAVE
LITTLE APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO MARINE INTERESTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE WATERS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY SUBSIDE DURING
THIS TIME...AND END UP WELL BELOW 10 FT. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
A MORE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS TO INCREASE. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 AM
     THIS MORNING TO NOON PST TODAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 261040
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY TO THE E TODAY...WEAKENING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION LATER
TODAY. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER OVER NW OREGON AND SW WA THROUGH WED. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW LATE
IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL IMAGERY
INDICATED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXTENDING FROM
THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN SW WA S THROUGH THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND
WILLAMETTE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS WAS SEEN RATHER
DRASTICALLY IN THE 00Z SLE SOUNDING SUN AFTERNOON...A VERY STRONG
INVERSION WAS THE CAUSE OF THE FOG TRAPPED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
WHILE ABOVE ABOUT 1K FT CONDITIONS WERE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER. WATER
VAPOR PICTURES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE WAS STILL
IN PLACE OVER OREGON FOR CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS...BUT MODELS
ALL EXPECT THE RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE RAPIDLY E TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A WEAKENING INVERSION. MANY AREAS WERE STILL REPORTING
VISIBILITES AT OR BELOW A QUARTER MILE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION WEAKENS
TODAY...IT STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK UP THE INLAND STRATUS
EVERYWHERE SO ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH WARMER ALTOUGH NOT QUITE SO WARM TEMPS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE INLAND SURFACE HIGH TODAY...MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A SWITCH TO SSW ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
TODAY. THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPS ON THE COAST TODAY...AND WILL
ULTIMATELY PUSH SOME MARINE CLOUDS ONTO THE COAST AND SLOWLY SPREAD
THEM INLAND TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES...A RATHER FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH WED.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DECAYING FRONT SAGGING
DOWN INTO THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGERING THROUGH WED. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THERE IS SOME
DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE OVER THE N COASTAL AREAS WITH THIS BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHILE FURTHER TO THE S AND E MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOWER. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WED...AND TAPER OFF ANY CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FURTHER TO THE S AND E. THE RETURN TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE LATE WED NIGHT MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST
AND COAST RANGE AND INTO SW WASHINGTON. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT REBUILDS ON THU AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS BUT BRING DAILY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT INLAND SOME
TIME NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS WILL BE
SAT OR SUN. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH RESTRICTED TO LOWER END CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN GIVEN THE SUPPORT FOR THE LATER TIMING FROM THE ECMWF AND
NUMEROUS GEFS MEMBERS. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND A STRONG INVERSION HAVE LED TO MOST
TAF SITES DROPPING DOWN INTO LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT KEUG
AND KSLE TO EXPERIENCE THESE REDUCTIONS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KHIO MAY ALSO FALL INTO THIS CATEGORY.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS POURING OUT OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE ARE
CURRENTLY PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS AT KPDX AND KTTD. THESE EAST
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY...AND IF THE LIFR/IFR FOG DOES NOT
RETURN TO THESE SITES LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT REDUCTIONS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL IS ALSO PUSHING
NORTHWARD OFFSHORE. STRATUS OFF THE COAST SHOULD PUSH ASHORE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO KAST AND KONP.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF IT
RIGHT NOW SO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF WHEN THESE REDUCTIONS
WILL OCCUR IS HIGH.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...LIGHT EAST WINDS POURING OUT OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE CONTINUE TO BRING A MIX OF VFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO
THE TERMINAL. EXPECT THE EAST WINDS TO DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE EAST
OF THE CASCADES SHOULD ALLOW IFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN LATER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING
OF WHEN THE SWITCHES FROM VFR TO LIFR/IFR WILL OCCUR. /NEUMAN

&&

.MARINE...A SOUTHERLY WIND SURGE IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AND MAY
LEAD TO BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
ACROSS THE WATERS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE WATERS ON TUESDAY...BUT HAVE
LITTLE APPRECIABLE IMPACTS TO MARINE INTERESTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE WATERS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY SUBSIDE DURING
THIS TIME...AND END UP WELL BELOW 10 FT. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
A MORE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS TO INCREASE. /NEUMAN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 AM
     THIS MORNING TO NOON PST TODAY.
&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 261021
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
321 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE
WESTERN U.S...WHILE AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA IS STARTING TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. FOR TODAY...ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG IN THE TREASURE VALLEY /BOISE WESTWARD/ AND WEISER RIVER
VALLEY WILL LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SE OREGON AND THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY WON/T LOSE THE LOW OVERCAST. A RIBBON OF FOG AND
STRATUS SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THAT SAID...SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET THE FOG/STRATUS THAT/S STILL IN PLACE WILL AGAIN EXPAND
OUT ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA IS DRAWN INTO
NORTHEAST NV BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW WILL
SPREAD NORTH OF THE NV BORDER EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY THOUGH MTNS WILL SEE 5-10 DEGREES OF
COOLING FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN AND SNOW...FROM
UPPER LOW WITH ORIGINS IN THE BAJA OF MEXICO...IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BECOME VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS LOW
GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW AT THIS POINT AND TURNING
TOWARDS THE EAST...SO POPS IN EASTERN OREGON REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN OFF
OF THE PACIFIC COAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO GET CUT OFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KEEP OUR AREA IN
A DRY NORTHWEST/SPLIT FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
RIDGE FLATTENING AT SOME POINT AND TRANSITIONING THE AREA INTO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW...WHICH IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO REALLY DIVERGE. THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE WILL DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES
IN THE FLOW TO BRING PRECIP. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN MAGIC/TREASURE/MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVERYWHERE
ELSE...VFR. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS...EXCEPT IN
MAGIC VALLEY WITH UP TO 20 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SOUTH
25-35 KTS...THEN AFTER 27/03Z...SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH MTN
OBSCURATION IN CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS. RAIN/SNOW MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
LINE FROM KREO TO KMYL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE INVERSION TODAY
WITH MIXING HEIGHTS OF 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING
FOR BETTER MIXING AT VALLEY SITES ABOVE 3500-4000 FEET. LOWER
SITES WILL REMAIN CAPPED WITH MIXING HEIGHTS STILL NO MORE THAN
1500 FEET AGL AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-014-033.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP
AIR STAGNATION...DG



000
FXUS65 KBOI 261021
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
321 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE
WESTERN U.S...WHILE AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA IS STARTING TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. FOR TODAY...ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG IN THE TREASURE VALLEY /BOISE WESTWARD/ AND WEISER RIVER
VALLEY WILL LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SE OREGON AND THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY WON/T LOSE THE LOW OVERCAST. A RIBBON OF FOG AND
STRATUS SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THAT SAID...SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET THE FOG/STRATUS THAT/S STILL IN PLACE WILL AGAIN EXPAND
OUT ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA IS DRAWN INTO
NORTHEAST NV BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW WILL
SPREAD NORTH OF THE NV BORDER EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY THOUGH MTNS WILL SEE 5-10 DEGREES OF
COOLING FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN AND SNOW...FROM
UPPER LOW WITH ORIGINS IN THE BAJA OF MEXICO...IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BECOME VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS LOW
GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW AT THIS POINT AND TURNING
TOWARDS THE EAST...SO POPS IN EASTERN OREGON REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN OFF
OF THE PACIFIC COAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO GET CUT OFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KEEP OUR AREA IN
A DRY NORTHWEST/SPLIT FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
RIDGE FLATTENING AT SOME POINT AND TRANSITIONING THE AREA INTO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW...WHICH IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO REALLY DIVERGE. THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE WILL DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES
IN THE FLOW TO BRING PRECIP. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN MAGIC/TREASURE/MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVERYWHERE
ELSE...VFR. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS...EXCEPT IN
MAGIC VALLEY WITH UP TO 20 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SOUTH
25-35 KTS...THEN AFTER 27/03Z...SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH MTN
OBSCURATION IN CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS. RAIN/SNOW MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
LINE FROM KREO TO KMYL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE INVERSION TODAY
WITH MIXING HEIGHTS OF 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING
FOR BETTER MIXING AT VALLEY SITES ABOVE 3500-4000 FEET. LOWER
SITES WILL REMAIN CAPPED WITH MIXING HEIGHTS STILL NO MORE THAN
1500 FEET AGL AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-014-033.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP
AIR STAGNATION...DG



000
FXUS65 KBOI 261021
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
321 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE
WESTERN U.S...WHILE AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA IS STARTING TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. FOR TODAY...ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG IN THE TREASURE VALLEY /BOISE WESTWARD/ AND WEISER RIVER
VALLEY WILL LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SE OREGON AND THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY WON/T LOSE THE LOW OVERCAST. A RIBBON OF FOG AND
STRATUS SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THAT SAID...SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET THE FOG/STRATUS THAT/S STILL IN PLACE WILL AGAIN EXPAND
OUT ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA IS DRAWN INTO
NORTHEAST NV BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW WILL
SPREAD NORTH OF THE NV BORDER EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY THOUGH MTNS WILL SEE 5-10 DEGREES OF
COOLING FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN AND SNOW...FROM
UPPER LOW WITH ORIGINS IN THE BAJA OF MEXICO...IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BECOME VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS LOW
GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW AT THIS POINT AND TURNING
TOWARDS THE EAST...SO POPS IN EASTERN OREGON REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN OFF
OF THE PACIFIC COAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO GET CUT OFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KEEP OUR AREA IN
A DRY NORTHWEST/SPLIT FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
RIDGE FLATTENING AT SOME POINT AND TRANSITIONING THE AREA INTO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW...WHICH IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO REALLY DIVERGE. THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE WILL DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES
IN THE FLOW TO BRING PRECIP. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN MAGIC/TREASURE/MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVERYWHERE
ELSE...VFR. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS...EXCEPT IN
MAGIC VALLEY WITH UP TO 20 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SOUTH
25-35 KTS...THEN AFTER 27/03Z...SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH MTN
OBSCURATION IN CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS. RAIN/SNOW MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
LINE FROM KREO TO KMYL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE INVERSION TODAY
WITH MIXING HEIGHTS OF 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING
FOR BETTER MIXING AT VALLEY SITES ABOVE 3500-4000 FEET. LOWER
SITES WILL REMAIN CAPPED WITH MIXING HEIGHTS STILL NO MORE THAN
1500 FEET AGL AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-014-033.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP
AIR STAGNATION...DG



000
FXUS65 KBOI 261021
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
321 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE
WESTERN U.S...WHILE AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA IS STARTING TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. FOR TODAY...ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG IN THE TREASURE VALLEY /BOISE WESTWARD/ AND WEISER RIVER
VALLEY WILL LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SE OREGON AND THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY WON/T LOSE THE LOW OVERCAST. A RIBBON OF FOG AND
STRATUS SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THAT SAID...SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET THE FOG/STRATUS THAT/S STILL IN PLACE WILL AGAIN EXPAND
OUT ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA IS DRAWN INTO
NORTHEAST NV BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW WILL
SPREAD NORTH OF THE NV BORDER EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY THOUGH MTNS WILL SEE 5-10 DEGREES OF
COOLING FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN AND SNOW...FROM
UPPER LOW WITH ORIGINS IN THE BAJA OF MEXICO...IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BECOME VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS LOW
GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW AT THIS POINT AND TURNING
TOWARDS THE EAST...SO POPS IN EASTERN OREGON REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN OFF
OF THE PACIFIC COAST. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO GET CUT OFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KEEP OUR AREA IN
A DRY NORTHWEST/SPLIT FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
RIDGE FLATTENING AT SOME POINT AND TRANSITIONING THE AREA INTO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW...WHICH IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO REALLY DIVERGE. THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE WILL DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES
IN THE FLOW TO BRING PRECIP. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN MAGIC/TREASURE/MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVERYWHERE
ELSE...VFR. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS...EXCEPT IN
MAGIC VALLEY WITH UP TO 20 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SOUTH
25-35 KTS...THEN AFTER 27/03Z...SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH MTN
OBSCURATION IN CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS. RAIN/SNOW MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
LINE FROM KREO TO KMYL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE INVERSION TODAY
WITH MIXING HEIGHTS OF 1000 TO 1500 FEET IN THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING
FOR BETTER MIXING AT VALLEY SITES ABOVE 3500-4000 FEET. LOWER
SITES WILL REMAIN CAPPED WITH MIXING HEIGHTS STILL NO MORE THAN
1500 FEET AGL AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-014-033.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP
AIR STAGNATION...DG



000
FXUS66 KMFR 260408
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
808 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, ANOTHER NIGHT
WITHOUT ANY NECESSARY UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST. IT WILL ALSO
BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF WATCHING FOR DENSE FOG UNDER THE RATHER
STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS. THE PAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE SEEN
SIGNIFICANT FOG, AND TOMORROW MORNING DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MUCH
DIFFERENT. UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN NEEDED. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS
ABOUT 25 MILES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING, AND MODELS BRING IT NEAR
THE NORTH COAST BY AROUND 26/12Z. FOG/STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST PRIOR TO THAT. IT
WILL LIKELY BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. FOG WITH LIFR
CIGS/VIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN AROUND
DAWN MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 745 PM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...SWELL HAS NOT
BEEN AS HIGH AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE
NORTH, HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -WRIGHT

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING CONTINUED STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS, BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON THE RIDGES, AND AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY
FOG. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT MOVING INTO THE COAST FROM THE WEST AND A LOW MOVING UP INTO
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY. DENSE FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE AND
ROGUE VALLEYS. CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
THAN TODAY BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR
INLAND AREAS. AIR STAGNATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND VALLEYS AS VALLEY INVERSIONS
CONTINUE AND THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING.

ALONG THE COAST, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE MARINE WATERS
TONIGHT. THEN THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT MARINE STRATUS MAY
EXTEND TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
INITIALLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD, THEN OVER MUCH OF THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AND COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
SISKIYOU, MODOC AND SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALONG THE COAST, THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, STALLING ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS AND JUST INLAND, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. ALSO ON TUESDAY, EXPECT SOME INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A PERIOD OF NO AIR STAGNATION
IN THE VALLEYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT MIXING MAY IMPROVE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AS WELL. CURRENTLY HAVE THE AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORY OUT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER THE HIGH PRESSURE MAY
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY SEE AIR
STAGNATION CONDITIONS RETURN TO INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY OR LATER
IN THE WEEK.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL LEAN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE CURRENT RIDGE BECAUSE THE
AMPLITUDE IS LOWER...BUT WE DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEY WARM TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE
AND SHORTER NIGHTS...THERE SHOULD BE LESS FOG COVERAGE LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS HANGS A FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT
HAS SHOWN THIS...AND THE ECMWF AND MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE DRY
AT THIS TIME...SO PREFER THE ECMWF AND HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUCKLES
SOME AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR SOME UPPER TROUGHS FROM THE
WEST TO MOVE IN...BUT THE FIRST OF THESE DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG. SO THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON. /SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/CC/NSK



000
FXUS66 KMFR 260408
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
808 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, ANOTHER NIGHT
WITHOUT ANY NECESSARY UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST. IT WILL ALSO
BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF WATCHING FOR DENSE FOG UNDER THE RATHER
STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS. THE PAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE SEEN
SIGNIFICANT FOG, AND TOMORROW MORNING DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MUCH
DIFFERENT. UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN NEEDED. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS
ABOUT 25 MILES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING, AND MODELS BRING IT NEAR
THE NORTH COAST BY AROUND 26/12Z. FOG/STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST PRIOR TO THAT. IT
WILL LIKELY BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. FOG WITH LIFR
CIGS/VIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN AROUND
DAWN MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 745 PM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...SWELL HAS NOT
BEEN AS HIGH AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE
NORTH, HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -WRIGHT

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING CONTINUED STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS, BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON THE RIDGES, AND AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY
FOG. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT MOVING INTO THE COAST FROM THE WEST AND A LOW MOVING UP INTO
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY. DENSE FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE AND
ROGUE VALLEYS. CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
THAN TODAY BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR
INLAND AREAS. AIR STAGNATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND VALLEYS AS VALLEY INVERSIONS
CONTINUE AND THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING.

ALONG THE COAST, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE MARINE WATERS
TONIGHT. THEN THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT MARINE STRATUS MAY
EXTEND TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
INITIALLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD, THEN OVER MUCH OF THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AND COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
SISKIYOU, MODOC AND SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALONG THE COAST, THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, STALLING ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS AND JUST INLAND, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. ALSO ON TUESDAY, EXPECT SOME INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A PERIOD OF NO AIR STAGNATION
IN THE VALLEYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT MIXING MAY IMPROVE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AS WELL. CURRENTLY HAVE THE AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORY OUT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER THE HIGH PRESSURE MAY
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY SEE AIR
STAGNATION CONDITIONS RETURN TO INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY OR LATER
IN THE WEEK.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL LEAN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE CURRENT RIDGE BECAUSE THE
AMPLITUDE IS LOWER...BUT WE DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEY WARM TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE
AND SHORTER NIGHTS...THERE SHOULD BE LESS FOG COVERAGE LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS HANGS A FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT
HAS SHOWN THIS...AND THE ECMWF AND MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE DRY
AT THIS TIME...SO PREFER THE ECMWF AND HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUCKLES
SOME AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR SOME UPPER TROUGHS FROM THE
WEST TO MOVE IN...BUT THE FIRST OF THESE DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG. SO THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON. /SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/CC/NSK



000
FXUS66 KMFR 260408
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
808 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, ANOTHER NIGHT
WITHOUT ANY NECESSARY UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST. IT WILL ALSO
BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF WATCHING FOR DENSE FOG UNDER THE RATHER
STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS. THE PAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE SEEN
SIGNIFICANT FOG, AND TOMORROW MORNING DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MUCH
DIFFERENT. UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN NEEDED. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS
ABOUT 25 MILES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING, AND MODELS BRING IT NEAR
THE NORTH COAST BY AROUND 26/12Z. FOG/STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST PRIOR TO THAT. IT
WILL LIKELY BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. FOG WITH LIFR
CIGS/VIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN AROUND
DAWN MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 745 PM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...SWELL HAS NOT
BEEN AS HIGH AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE
NORTH, HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -WRIGHT

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING CONTINUED STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS, BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON THE RIDGES, AND AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY
FOG. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT MOVING INTO THE COAST FROM THE WEST AND A LOW MOVING UP INTO
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY. DENSE FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE AND
ROGUE VALLEYS. CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
THAN TODAY BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR
INLAND AREAS. AIR STAGNATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND VALLEYS AS VALLEY INVERSIONS
CONTINUE AND THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING.

ALONG THE COAST, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE MARINE WATERS
TONIGHT. THEN THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT MARINE STRATUS MAY
EXTEND TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
INITIALLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD, THEN OVER MUCH OF THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AND COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
SISKIYOU, MODOC AND SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALONG THE COAST, THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, STALLING ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS AND JUST INLAND, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. ALSO ON TUESDAY, EXPECT SOME INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A PERIOD OF NO AIR STAGNATION
IN THE VALLEYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT MIXING MAY IMPROVE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AS WELL. CURRENTLY HAVE THE AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORY OUT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER THE HIGH PRESSURE MAY
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY SEE AIR
STAGNATION CONDITIONS RETURN TO INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY OR LATER
IN THE WEEK.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL LEAN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE CURRENT RIDGE BECAUSE THE
AMPLITUDE IS LOWER...BUT WE DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEY WARM TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE
AND SHORTER NIGHTS...THERE SHOULD BE LESS FOG COVERAGE LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS HANGS A FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT
HAS SHOWN THIS...AND THE ECMWF AND MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE DRY
AT THIS TIME...SO PREFER THE ECMWF AND HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUCKLES
SOME AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR SOME UPPER TROUGHS FROM THE
WEST TO MOVE IN...BUT THE FIRST OF THESE DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG. SO THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON. /SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/CC/NSK



000
FXUS66 KMFR 260408
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
808 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, ANOTHER NIGHT
WITHOUT ANY NECESSARY UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST. IT WILL ALSO
BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF WATCHING FOR DENSE FOG UNDER THE RATHER
STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS. THE PAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE SEEN
SIGNIFICANT FOG, AND TOMORROW MORNING DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MUCH
DIFFERENT. UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN NEEDED. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS
ABOUT 25 MILES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING, AND MODELS BRING IT NEAR
THE NORTH COAST BY AROUND 26/12Z. FOG/STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST PRIOR TO THAT. IT
WILL LIKELY BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. FOG WITH LIFR
CIGS/VIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN AROUND
DAWN MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 745 PM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...SWELL HAS NOT
BEEN AS HIGH AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE
NORTH, HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -WRIGHT

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING CONTINUED STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS, BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON THE RIDGES, AND AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY
FOG. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT MOVING INTO THE COAST FROM THE WEST AND A LOW MOVING UP INTO
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY. DENSE FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE AND
ROGUE VALLEYS. CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
THAN TODAY BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR
INLAND AREAS. AIR STAGNATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND VALLEYS AS VALLEY INVERSIONS
CONTINUE AND THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING.

ALONG THE COAST, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE MARINE WATERS
TONIGHT. THEN THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT MARINE STRATUS MAY
EXTEND TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
INITIALLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD, THEN OVER MUCH OF THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AND COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
SISKIYOU, MODOC AND SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALONG THE COAST, THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, STALLING ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS AND JUST INLAND, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. ALSO ON TUESDAY, EXPECT SOME INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A PERIOD OF NO AIR STAGNATION
IN THE VALLEYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT MIXING MAY IMPROVE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AS WELL. CURRENTLY HAVE THE AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORY OUT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER THE HIGH PRESSURE MAY
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY SEE AIR
STAGNATION CONDITIONS RETURN TO INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY OR LATER
IN THE WEEK.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL LEAN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE CURRENT RIDGE BECAUSE THE
AMPLITUDE IS LOWER...BUT WE DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEY WARM TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE
AND SHORTER NIGHTS...THERE SHOULD BE LESS FOG COVERAGE LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS HANGS A FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT
HAS SHOWN THIS...AND THE ECMWF AND MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE DRY
AT THIS TIME...SO PREFER THE ECMWF AND HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUCKLES
SOME AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR SOME UPPER TROUGHS FROM THE
WEST TO MOVE IN...BUT THE FIRST OF THESE DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG. SO THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON. /SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/CC/NSK



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260402
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
902 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG ALREADY SEEN ON WEBCAMS AND ALSO INDICATED
ON SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS THE UPPER WEISER BASIN. EXPECT THE
FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO EXPAND IN THE TREASURE VALLEY /ESPECIALLY
WEST OF BOISE/ THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THE UPPER WEISER BASIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND THE TREASURE VALLEY FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY AND UPPER WEISER BASIN THIS EVENING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. KBOI WILL LIKELY SEE STRATUS AND FOG BY
09Z. EXPECTED STRATUS TO FILL IN ACROSS THE LONG VALLEY AND THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. VFR ELSEWHERE. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS ALOFT AT 10
KFT...NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...CONTINUED INVERSION CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SYSTEM
CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY TEMPORARILY CLEAN
THE AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MAGIC VALLEY...BUT INVERSION CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AS
EXPECTED. EXPECT STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO EXPAND DURING THE
NIGHT AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY IN THE UPPER TREASURE
AND MAGIC VALLEYS WHILE PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY. A WEAK SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD INVERSION
PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK. INVERSION WILL PROBABLY NOT
BREAK FOR THE OREGON LOWER TREASURE AND BAKER VALLEYS AS A MOIST
UPPER LOW CROSSES SW IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WEST THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACNW/IDAHO FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SPLIT FLOW WILL HAVE WEAK WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW LAYER
STRATUS TO FORM OR SPREAD. UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
WILL DETERMINE IF UPPER TROUGHS IN THE NW FLOW CAN INFLUENCE
NORTHERN TIER ZONES BUT MODEL TREND IS FOR A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE TO
BRING A STRONG INVERSION BACK. THE SECOND BAJA LOW SUNDAY LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK. DRY WEATHER WITH VERY MILD
MOUNTAIN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW AROUND
3500 FT MSL /INCLUDING BOISE/ AN INVERSION PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AT BOISE GET UP TO 40 DEGREES BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY IDZ033.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST MONDAY IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST MONDAY ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JS
AIR STAGNATION...KA
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260402
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
902 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG ALREADY SEEN ON WEBCAMS AND ALSO INDICATED
ON SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS THE UPPER WEISER BASIN. EXPECT THE
FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO EXPAND IN THE TREASURE VALLEY /ESPECIALLY
WEST OF BOISE/ THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THE UPPER WEISER BASIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND THE TREASURE VALLEY FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY AND UPPER WEISER BASIN THIS EVENING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. KBOI WILL LIKELY SEE STRATUS AND FOG BY
09Z. EXPECTED STRATUS TO FILL IN ACROSS THE LONG VALLEY AND THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. VFR ELSEWHERE. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS ALOFT AT 10
KFT...NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...CONTINUED INVERSION CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SYSTEM
CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY TEMPORARILY CLEAN
THE AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MAGIC VALLEY...BUT INVERSION CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AS
EXPECTED. EXPECT STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO EXPAND DURING THE
NIGHT AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY IN THE UPPER TREASURE
AND MAGIC VALLEYS WHILE PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY. A WEAK SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD INVERSION
PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK. INVERSION WILL PROBABLY NOT
BREAK FOR THE OREGON LOWER TREASURE AND BAKER VALLEYS AS A MOIST
UPPER LOW CROSSES SW IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WEST THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACNW/IDAHO FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SPLIT FLOW WILL HAVE WEAK WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW LAYER
STRATUS TO FORM OR SPREAD. UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
WILL DETERMINE IF UPPER TROUGHS IN THE NW FLOW CAN INFLUENCE
NORTHERN TIER ZONES BUT MODEL TREND IS FOR A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE TO
BRING A STRONG INVERSION BACK. THE SECOND BAJA LOW SUNDAY LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK. DRY WEATHER WITH VERY MILD
MOUNTAIN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW AROUND
3500 FT MSL /INCLUDING BOISE/ AN INVERSION PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AT BOISE GET UP TO 40 DEGREES BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY IDZ033.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST MONDAY IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST MONDAY ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JS
AIR STAGNATION...KA
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260402
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
902 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG ALREADY SEEN ON WEBCAMS AND ALSO INDICATED
ON SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS THE UPPER WEISER BASIN. EXPECT THE
FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO EXPAND IN THE TREASURE VALLEY /ESPECIALLY
WEST OF BOISE/ THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THE UPPER WEISER BASIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND THE TREASURE VALLEY FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY AND UPPER WEISER BASIN THIS EVENING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. KBOI WILL LIKELY SEE STRATUS AND FOG BY
09Z. EXPECTED STRATUS TO FILL IN ACROSS THE LONG VALLEY AND THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. VFR ELSEWHERE. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS ALOFT AT 10
KFT...NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...CONTINUED INVERSION CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SYSTEM
CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY TEMPORARILY CLEAN
THE AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MAGIC VALLEY...BUT INVERSION CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AS
EXPECTED. EXPECT STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO EXPAND DURING THE
NIGHT AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY IN THE UPPER TREASURE
AND MAGIC VALLEYS WHILE PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY. A WEAK SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD INVERSION
PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK. INVERSION WILL PROBABLY NOT
BREAK FOR THE OREGON LOWER TREASURE AND BAKER VALLEYS AS A MOIST
UPPER LOW CROSSES SW IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WEST THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACNW/IDAHO FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SPLIT FLOW WILL HAVE WEAK WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW LAYER
STRATUS TO FORM OR SPREAD. UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
WILL DETERMINE IF UPPER TROUGHS IN THE NW FLOW CAN INFLUENCE
NORTHERN TIER ZONES BUT MODEL TREND IS FOR A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE TO
BRING A STRONG INVERSION BACK. THE SECOND BAJA LOW SUNDAY LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK. DRY WEATHER WITH VERY MILD
MOUNTAIN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW AROUND
3500 FT MSL /INCLUDING BOISE/ AN INVERSION PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AT BOISE GET UP TO 40 DEGREES BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY IDZ033.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST MONDAY IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST MONDAY ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JS
AIR STAGNATION...KA
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 260402
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
902 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG ALREADY SEEN ON WEBCAMS AND ALSO INDICATED
ON SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS THE UPPER WEISER BASIN. EXPECT THE
FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO EXPAND IN THE TREASURE VALLEY /ESPECIALLY
WEST OF BOISE/ THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THE UPPER WEISER BASIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND THE TREASURE VALLEY FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY AND UPPER WEISER BASIN THIS EVENING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. KBOI WILL LIKELY SEE STRATUS AND FOG BY
09Z. EXPECTED STRATUS TO FILL IN ACROSS THE LONG VALLEY AND THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. VFR ELSEWHERE. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS ALOFT AT 10
KFT...NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...CONTINUED INVERSION CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SYSTEM
CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY TEMPORARILY CLEAN
THE AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MAGIC VALLEY...BUT INVERSION CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AS
EXPECTED. EXPECT STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO EXPAND DURING THE
NIGHT AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY IN THE UPPER TREASURE
AND MAGIC VALLEYS WHILE PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY. A WEAK SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD INVERSION
PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK. INVERSION WILL PROBABLY NOT
BREAK FOR THE OREGON LOWER TREASURE AND BAKER VALLEYS AS A MOIST
UPPER LOW CROSSES SW IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WEST THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACNW/IDAHO FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SPLIT FLOW WILL HAVE WEAK WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW LAYER
STRATUS TO FORM OR SPREAD. UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
WILL DETERMINE IF UPPER TROUGHS IN THE NW FLOW CAN INFLUENCE
NORTHERN TIER ZONES BUT MODEL TREND IS FOR A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE TO
BRING A STRONG INVERSION BACK. THE SECOND BAJA LOW SUNDAY LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK. DRY WEATHER WITH VERY MILD
MOUNTAIN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW AROUND
3500 FT MSL /INCLUDING BOISE/ AN INVERSION PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AT BOISE GET UP TO 40 DEGREES BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY IDZ033.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST MONDAY IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST MONDAY ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JS
AIR STAGNATION...KA
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM/WH



000
FXUS66 KPDT 260319
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
719 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN IS
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. SO FAR THE FOG HAS STAYED OUT OF THE OREGON BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS...IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE BASIN
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. IN THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY STRONG
WINDS HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET AND MILD UNDER A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN US. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT AT KPDT...KRDM AND KBDN DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE FOG
WILL LIFT AND/OR BURN OFF BY NOON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 325 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND FLATTEN ALLOWING A WEAK SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SOME MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AND THEN
BEGIN TO COOL AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THE INVERSION WILL ALSO
REMAIN THUS KEEPING TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THERE COULD BE SOME SCOURING OUT
OF THE FOG BUT NOT A COMPLETE SOURING. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOW VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE FOG. TEMPERATURES IN THE FOG AREAS WILL REMAIN COOL DUE
TO A LACK OF SURFACE HEATING AND THE INVERSION. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WHICH A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS CAN OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN AND AROUND THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...WHICH WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN FOG-FREE LOCATIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH FOG
WILL BE PRESENT IN CENTRAL OREGON...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED IT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH THE 12Z GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
THE RIDGE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE AREA MOSTLY
DRY BUT ADDED SOME RAIN ALONG THE CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS.
COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  58  35  48 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  36  40  37  44 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  34  42  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  33  41  34  44 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  34  46  34  46 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  38  43  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  44  64  36  55 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  38  48  34  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  39  57  34  51 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  44  51  38  50 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY ORZ041-044.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY WAZ024-026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/82/88











000
FXUS66 KPDT 260319
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
719 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN IS
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. SO FAR THE FOG HAS STAYED OUT OF THE OREGON BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS...IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE BASIN
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. IN THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY STRONG
WINDS HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET AND MILD UNDER A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN US. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT AT KPDT...KRDM AND KBDN DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE FOG
WILL LIFT AND/OR BURN OFF BY NOON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 325 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND FLATTEN ALLOWING A WEAK SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SOME MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AND THEN
BEGIN TO COOL AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THE INVERSION WILL ALSO
REMAIN THUS KEEPING TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THERE COULD BE SOME SCOURING OUT
OF THE FOG BUT NOT A COMPLETE SOURING. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOW VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE FOG. TEMPERATURES IN THE FOG AREAS WILL REMAIN COOL DUE
TO A LACK OF SURFACE HEATING AND THE INVERSION. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WHICH A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS CAN OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN AND AROUND THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...WHICH WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN FOG-FREE LOCATIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH FOG
WILL BE PRESENT IN CENTRAL OREGON...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED IT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH THE 12Z GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
THE RIDGE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE AREA MOSTLY
DRY BUT ADDED SOME RAIN ALONG THE CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS.
COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  58  35  48 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  36  40  37  44 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  34  42  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  33  41  34  44 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  34  46  34  46 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  38  43  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  44  64  36  55 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  38  48  34  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  39  57  34  51 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  44  51  38  50 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY ORZ041-044.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY WAZ024-026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/82/88











000
FXUS66 KPDT 260319
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
719 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN IS
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. SO FAR THE FOG HAS STAYED OUT OF THE OREGON BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS...IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE BASIN
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. IN THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY STRONG
WINDS HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET AND MILD UNDER A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN US. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT AT KPDT...KRDM AND KBDN DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE FOG
WILL LIFT AND/OR BURN OFF BY NOON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 325 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND FLATTEN ALLOWING A WEAK SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SOME MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AND THEN
BEGIN TO COOL AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THE INVERSION WILL ALSO
REMAIN THUS KEEPING TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THERE COULD BE SOME SCOURING OUT
OF THE FOG BUT NOT A COMPLETE SOURING. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOW VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE FOG. TEMPERATURES IN THE FOG AREAS WILL REMAIN COOL DUE
TO A LACK OF SURFACE HEATING AND THE INVERSION. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WHICH A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS CAN OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN AND AROUND THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...WHICH WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN FOG-FREE LOCATIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH FOG
WILL BE PRESENT IN CENTRAL OREGON...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED IT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH THE 12Z GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
THE RIDGE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE AREA MOSTLY
DRY BUT ADDED SOME RAIN ALONG THE CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS.
COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  58  35  48 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  36  40  37  44 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  34  42  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  33  41  34  44 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  34  46  34  46 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  38  43  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  44  64  36  55 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  38  48  34  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  39  57  34  51 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  44  51  38  50 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY ORZ041-044.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY WAZ024-026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/82/88











000
FXUS66 KPDT 260319
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
719 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN IS
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. SO FAR THE FOG HAS STAYED OUT OF THE OREGON BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS...IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE BASIN
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. IN THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY STRONG
WINDS HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET AND MILD UNDER A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN US. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT AT KPDT...KRDM AND KBDN DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE FOG
WILL LIFT AND/OR BURN OFF BY NOON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 325 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND FLATTEN ALLOWING A WEAK SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SOME MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AND THEN
BEGIN TO COOL AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THE INVERSION WILL ALSO
REMAIN THUS KEEPING TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THERE COULD BE SOME SCOURING OUT
OF THE FOG BUT NOT A COMPLETE SOURING. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOW VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE FOG. TEMPERATURES IN THE FOG AREAS WILL REMAIN COOL DUE
TO A LACK OF SURFACE HEATING AND THE INVERSION. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WHICH A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS CAN OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN AND AROUND THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...WHICH WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN FOG-FREE LOCATIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH FOG
WILL BE PRESENT IN CENTRAL OREGON...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED IT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH THE 12Z GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
THE RIDGE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE AREA MOSTLY
DRY BUT ADDED SOME RAIN ALONG THE CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS.
COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  58  35  48 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  36  40  37  44 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  34  42  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  33  41  34  44 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  34  46  34  46 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  38  43  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  44  64  36  55 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  38  48  34  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  39  57  34  51 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  44  51  38  50 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY ORZ041-044.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY WAZ024-026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/82/88











000
FXUS66 KPDT 260319
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
719 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN IS
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. SO FAR THE FOG HAS STAYED OUT OF THE OREGON BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS...IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE BASIN
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. IN THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY STRONG
WINDS HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET AND MILD UNDER A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN US. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT AT KPDT...KRDM AND KBDN DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. THE FOG
WILL LIFT AND/OR BURN OFF BY NOON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 325 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND FLATTEN ALLOWING A WEAK SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SOME MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AND THEN
BEGIN TO COOL AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THE INVERSION WILL ALSO
REMAIN THUS KEEPING TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THERE COULD BE SOME SCOURING OUT
OF THE FOG BUT NOT A COMPLETE SOURING. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOW VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE FOG. TEMPERATURES IN THE FOG AREAS WILL REMAIN COOL DUE
TO A LACK OF SURFACE HEATING AND THE INVERSION. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WHICH A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS CAN OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN AND AROUND THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...WHICH WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN FOG-FREE LOCATIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH FOG
WILL BE PRESENT IN CENTRAL OREGON...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED IT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH THE 12Z GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
THE RIDGE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE AREA MOSTLY
DRY BUT ADDED SOME RAIN ALONG THE CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS.
COBB

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KPDT...KRDM
AND KBDN. DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KYKM...KPSC...KALW
AND KDLS CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS. THE FOG MAY EXPAND INTO KPDT...BUT
HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THERE WILL BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TAF SITES.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  58  35  48 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  36  40  37  44 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  34  42  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  33  41  34  44 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  34  46  34  46 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  38  43  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  44  64  36  55 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  38  48  34  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  39  57  34  51 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  44  51  38  50 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY ORZ041-044.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY WAZ024-026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/82/88









000
FXUS66 KPQR 260306
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
706 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT START TO
WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST
TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND
LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG IS FILLING IN QUICKLY FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
THIS EVENING AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE EASTERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM TROUTDALE TO THE DALLES HAS INCREASED
TO 4.5 MB...WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR WEAK EASTERLY WINDS TO KEEP THE COAST
MOSTLY FOG FREE TONIGHT. THE ONLY CHANGE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE WAS
TO ADD VISIBILITY WORDING WITH THE FOG FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TJ

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS ARE RESULTING IN PERSISTENT FOG THROUGHOUT THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY IN SW WA. HAD TO EXTEND THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON...BUT AS OF 21Z AREAS OF DENSE FOG
CONTINUE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INVERSION IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE WERE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S AT 21Z. MARYS PEAK...AT 4137 FT IN THE CENTRAL COAST
RANGE...WAS 67 DEG AT 2025Z. EQUALLY AS IMPRESSIVE WAS THE 21Z 63 DEG
READING AT THE 6000-FOOT TIMBERLINE SENSOR WITH A HUMIDITY OF JUST 11
PERCENT. SEVERAL CASCADE RAWS SITES BETWEEN 2500 AND 4500 FEET WERE
IN THE 70S AS OF 22Z.

PRIMARY FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE
HIGH PRES CELL CENTERED OVER NE CALIFORNIA AND A CLOSED LOW JUST
SOUTH OF BAJA. 12Z MODEL FORECASTS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
16C TO 18C RANGE TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WARMEST 850 MB
TEMP RECORDED IN JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE
IN THE 1950S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE E TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO MON...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GFS HAS 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO 10 TO 13C BY 00Z TUE.
HIGHER PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD SEE MAX TEMPS MON
FAIRLY EARLY. VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO SEE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING  ONTO THE
COAST TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THIS DECAYING FRONT WILL BE RATHER
SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 800 MB LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. NOT LOOKING
AT MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS...WITH DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY THAN RAIN. THE
ECMWF HAS H5 RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD WED...BUT TIME-HEIGHT AND
MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE.
THUS...HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WED. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE
LATE WED NIGHT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY
ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND COAST RANGE AND INTO SW WASHINGTON. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT REBUILDS ON
THU AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS BUT BRING DAILY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT INLAND SOME
TIME NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS WILL BE
SAT OR SUN. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH RESTRICTED TO LOWER END CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN GIVEN THE SUPPORT FOR THE LATER TIMING FROM THE ECMWF AND
NUMEROUS GEFS MEMBERS. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...ASTORIA HAS CLEARED OUT...MEANING ALL COASTAL SITES
ARE NOW VFR. THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND. FOG IS STILL LOWERING CIGS
AND VIS AT SOUTH VALLEY SITES TO LIFR/VLIFR. FOG OVER THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY IS BURNING OFF AS EXPECTED...IMPROVING ALL BUT
KHIO TO VFR. KHIO SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 23Z...AND POSSIBLY TO
VFR AFTER 00Z BEFORE FOG REDEVELOPS AROUND 02Z. KEUG MAY STILL
MAKE IT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 23Z AS FOG SLOWLY BURNS OFF
IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR AFTER 00Z
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND FOG STARTS TO RAPIDLY REDEVELOP. CIGS
AND VIS OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL VALLEY WILL DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR
THIS EVENING AROUND 02-04Z...WHILE THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WILL DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR A BIT LATER AROUND 03-06Z. LIFR/VLIFR CIGS
AND VIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DENSE FOG
REDEVELOPS OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS. TIMING OF FOG BURN-OFF
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH NORTH VALLEY SITES IMPROVING TO
VFR BY 20-22Z AND SOUTH VALLEY SITES STRUGGLING TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR BY 00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL START TO DROP AS FOG
BEGINS TO REDEVELOP AROUND 04Z. CIGS AND VIS DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR
AROUND 05Z AND WILL REMAIN WITH 1/4SM VIS FOG OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH FOG RAPIDLY
CLEARING TO VFR AROUND 21Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND 9 TO 10 FT WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE BEFORE STABILIZING
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS. GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS WILL NOT PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 8 TO 9 FT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
COULD COME BACK UP NEAR 10 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SOUTHERLY SURGE. MONDAY EVENING SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE...
FALLING TO AROUND 5 FT BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     11 PM PST THIS EVENING.


&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 260306
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
706 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT START TO
WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST
TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND
LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG IS FILLING IN QUICKLY FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
THIS EVENING AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE EASTERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM TROUTDALE TO THE DALLES HAS INCREASED
TO 4.5 MB...WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR WEAK EASTERLY WINDS TO KEEP THE COAST
MOSTLY FOG FREE TONIGHT. THE ONLY CHANGE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE WAS
TO ADD VISIBILITY WORDING WITH THE FOG FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TJ

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS ARE RESULTING IN PERSISTENT FOG THROUGHOUT THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY IN SW WA. HAD TO EXTEND THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON...BUT AS OF 21Z AREAS OF DENSE FOG
CONTINUE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INVERSION IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE WERE IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S AT 21Z. MARYS PEAK...AT 4137 FT IN THE CENTRAL COAST
RANGE...WAS 67 DEG AT 2025Z. EQUALLY AS IMPRESSIVE WAS THE 21Z 63 DEG
READING AT THE 6000-FOOT TIMBERLINE SENSOR WITH A HUMIDITY OF JUST 11
PERCENT. SEVERAL CASCADE RAWS SITES BETWEEN 2500 AND 4500 FEET WERE
IN THE 70S AS OF 22Z.

PRIMARY FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE
HIGH PRES CELL CENTERED OVER NE CALIFORNIA AND A CLOSED LOW JUST
SOUTH OF BAJA. 12Z MODEL FORECASTS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
16C TO 18C RANGE TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WARMEST 850 MB
TEMP RECORDED IN JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE
IN THE 1950S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE E TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO MON...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GFS HAS 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO 10 TO 13C BY 00Z TUE.
HIGHER PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD SEE MAX TEMPS MON
FAIRLY EARLY. VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO SEE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING  ONTO THE
COAST TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THIS DECAYING FRONT WILL BE RATHER
SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 800 MB LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. NOT LOOKING
AT MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS...WITH DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY THAN RAIN. THE
ECMWF HAS H5 RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD WED...BUT TIME-HEIGHT AND
MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE.
THUS...HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WED. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE
LATE WED NIGHT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY
ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND COAST RANGE AND INTO SW WASHINGTON. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT REBUILDS ON
THU AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS BUT BRING DAILY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT INLAND SOME
TIME NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS WILL BE
SAT OR SUN. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH RESTRICTED TO LOWER END CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN GIVEN THE SUPPORT FOR THE LATER TIMING FROM THE ECMWF AND
NUMEROUS GEFS MEMBERS. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...ASTORIA HAS CLEARED OUT...MEANING ALL COASTAL SITES
ARE NOW VFR. THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND. FOG IS STILL LOWERING CIGS
AND VIS AT SOUTH VALLEY SITES TO LIFR/VLIFR. FOG OVER THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY IS BURNING OFF AS EXPECTED...IMPROVING ALL BUT
KHIO TO VFR. KHIO SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 23Z...AND POSSIBLY TO
VFR AFTER 00Z BEFORE FOG REDEVELOPS AROUND 02Z. KEUG MAY STILL
MAKE IT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 23Z AS FOG SLOWLY BURNS OFF
IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR AFTER 00Z
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND FOG STARTS TO RAPIDLY REDEVELOP. CIGS
AND VIS OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL VALLEY WILL DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR
THIS EVENING AROUND 02-04Z...WHILE THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WILL DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR A BIT LATER AROUND 03-06Z. LIFR/VLIFR CIGS
AND VIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DENSE FOG
REDEVELOPS OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS. TIMING OF FOG BURN-OFF
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH NORTH VALLEY SITES IMPROVING TO
VFR BY 20-22Z AND SOUTH VALLEY SITES STRUGGLING TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR BY 00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL START TO DROP AS FOG
BEGINS TO REDEVELOP AROUND 04Z. CIGS AND VIS DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR
AROUND 05Z AND WILL REMAIN WITH 1/4SM VIS FOG OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH FOG RAPIDLY
CLEARING TO VFR AROUND 21Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND 9 TO 10 FT WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE BEFORE STABILIZING
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS. GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS WILL NOT PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 8 TO 9 FT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
COULD COME BACK UP NEAR 10 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SOUTHERLY SURGE. MONDAY EVENING SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE...
FALLING TO AROUND 5 FT BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     11 PM PST THIS EVENING.


&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 252324 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
325 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND FLATTEN ALLOWING A WEAK SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SOME MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AND THEN
BEGIN TO COOL AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THE INVERSION WILL ALSO
REMAIN THUS KEEPING TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THERE COULD BE SOME SCOURING OUT
OF THE FOG BUT NOT A COMPLETE SOURING. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOW VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE FOG. TEMPERATURES IN THE FOG AREAS WILL REMAIN COOL DUE
TO A LACK OF SURFACE HEATING AND THE INVERSION. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WHICH A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS CAN OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN AND AROUND THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...WHICH WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN FOG-FREE LOCATIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH FOG
WILL BE PRESENT IN CENTRAL OREGON...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED IT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH THE 12Z GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
THE RIDGE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE AREA MOSTLY
DRY BUT ADDED SOME RAIN ALONG THE CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS.
COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KPDT...KRDM
AND KBDN. DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KYKM...KPSC...KALW
AND KDLS CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS. THE FOG MAY EXPAND INTO KPDT...BUT
HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THERE WILL BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TAF SITES.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  58  35  48 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  36  41  37  44 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  34  42  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  33  41  34  44 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  34  46  34  46 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  38  42  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  44  64  36  55 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  38  48  34  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  39  57  34  51 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  44  51  38  50 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY ORZ041-044.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY WAZ024-026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82







000
FXUS66 KPDT 252324 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
325 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND FLATTEN ALLOWING A WEAK SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SOME MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AND THEN
BEGIN TO COOL AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THE INVERSION WILL ALSO
REMAIN THUS KEEPING TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THERE COULD BE SOME SCOURING OUT
OF THE FOG BUT NOT A COMPLETE SOURING. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOW VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE FOG. TEMPERATURES IN THE FOG AREAS WILL REMAIN COOL DUE
TO A LACK OF SURFACE HEATING AND THE INVERSION. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WHICH A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS CAN OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN AND AROUND THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...WHICH WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN FOG-FREE LOCATIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH FOG
WILL BE PRESENT IN CENTRAL OREGON...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED IT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH THE 12Z GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
THE RIDGE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE AREA MOSTLY
DRY BUT ADDED SOME RAIN ALONG THE CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS.
COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KPDT...KRDM
AND KBDN. DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KYKM...KPSC...KALW
AND KDLS CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS. THE FOG MAY EXPAND INTO KPDT...BUT
HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THERE WILL BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TAF SITES.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  58  35  48 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  36  41  37  44 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  34  42  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  33  41  34  44 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  34  46  34  46 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  38  42  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  44  64  36  55 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  38  48  34  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  39  57  34  51 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  44  51  38  50 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY ORZ041-044.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY WAZ024-026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82






000
FXUS66 KMFR 252227
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
227 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING CONTINUED STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS, BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON THE RIDGES, AND AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY
FOG. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT MOVING INTO THE COAST FROM THE WEST AND A LOW MOVING UP INTO
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY. DENSE FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE AND
ROGUE VALLEYS. CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
THAN TODAY BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR
INLAND AREAS. AIR STAGNATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND VALLEYS AS VALLEY INVERSIONS
CONTINUE AND THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING.

ALONG THE COAST, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE MARINE WATERS
TONIGHT. THEN THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT MARINE STRATUS MAY
EXTEND TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
INITIALLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD, THEN OVER MUCH OF THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AND COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
SISKIYOU, MODOC AND SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALONG THE COAST, THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, STALLING ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS AND JUST INLAND, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. ALSO ON TUESDAY, EXPECT SOME INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A PERIOD OF NO AIR STAGNATION
IN THE VALLEYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT MIXING MAY IMPROVE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AS WELL. CURRENTLY HAVE THE AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORY OUT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER THE HIGH PRESSURE MAY
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY SEE AIR
STAGNATION CONDITIONS RETURN TO INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY OR LATER
IN THE WEEK.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL LEAN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE CURRENT RIDGE BECAUSE THE
AMPLITUDE IS LOWER...BUT WE DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEY WARM TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE
AND SHORTER NIGHTS...THERE SHOULD BE LESS FOG COVERAGE LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS HANGS A FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT
HAS SHOWN THIS...AND THE ECMWF AND MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE DRY
AT THIS TIME...SO PREFER THE ECMWF AND HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUCKLES
SOME AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR SOME UPPER TROUGHS FROM THE
WEST TO MOVE IN...BUT THE FIRST OF THESE DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG. SO THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON. /SK


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...THE ONLY AREA WITH
LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS IS GRANTS PASS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THERE...BUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  TONIGHT WILL FEATURE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST. SPECIFICALLY...THERE IS
A CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS AFFECTING NORTH BEND AIRPORT BRIEFLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS AS THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS
CHANGING SOME. FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS...LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM NEAR GRANTS PASS FIRST...AND EXPAND TO
AFFECT THE UMPQUA BASIN...ILLINOIS VALLEY...AND MEDFORD AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT.  GIVEN A WEAKENING INVERSION...FOG SHOULD AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE QUICKER TO CLEAR ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
BY 18Z-20Z MOST PLACES. ELSEWHERE...EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AWAY FROM RIVER VALLEYS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 200 PM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...MADE A MINOR
CHANGE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. 10 FOOT SWELLS
ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BUOY 27 WHICH IS SOONER THAN EXPECTED, SO I
EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS. SWELLS ARRIVING
AT OFFSHORE BUOY 2 ARE NOT AS HIGH AS EXPECTED, SO THIS ADVISORY FOR
OUR WATERS MAY BE ABLE TO BE LOWERED EARLY TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING
THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 252227
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
227 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING CONTINUED STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS, BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON THE RIDGES, AND AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY
FOG. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT MOVING INTO THE COAST FROM THE WEST AND A LOW MOVING UP INTO
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY. DENSE FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE AND
ROGUE VALLEYS. CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
THAN TODAY BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR
INLAND AREAS. AIR STAGNATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND VALLEYS AS VALLEY INVERSIONS
CONTINUE AND THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING.

ALONG THE COAST, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE MARINE WATERS
TONIGHT. THEN THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT MARINE STRATUS MAY
EXTEND TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
INITIALLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD, THEN OVER MUCH OF THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AND COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
SISKIYOU, MODOC AND SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALONG THE COAST, THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, STALLING ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS AND JUST INLAND, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. ALSO ON TUESDAY, EXPECT SOME INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A PERIOD OF NO AIR STAGNATION
IN THE VALLEYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT MIXING MAY IMPROVE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AS WELL. CURRENTLY HAVE THE AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORY OUT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER THE HIGH PRESSURE MAY
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY SEE AIR
STAGNATION CONDITIONS RETURN TO INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY OR LATER
IN THE WEEK.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL LEAN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE CURRENT RIDGE BECAUSE THE
AMPLITUDE IS LOWER...BUT WE DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEY WARM TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE
AND SHORTER NIGHTS...THERE SHOULD BE LESS FOG COVERAGE LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS HANGS A FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT
HAS SHOWN THIS...AND THE ECMWF AND MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE DRY
AT THIS TIME...SO PREFER THE ECMWF AND HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUCKLES
SOME AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR SOME UPPER TROUGHS FROM THE
WEST TO MOVE IN...BUT THE FIRST OF THESE DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG. SO THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON. /SK


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...THE ONLY AREA WITH
LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS IS GRANTS PASS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THERE...BUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  TONIGHT WILL FEATURE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST. SPECIFICALLY...THERE IS
A CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS AFFECTING NORTH BEND AIRPORT BRIEFLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS AS THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS
CHANGING SOME. FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS...LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM NEAR GRANTS PASS FIRST...AND EXPAND TO
AFFECT THE UMPQUA BASIN...ILLINOIS VALLEY...AND MEDFORD AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT.  GIVEN A WEAKENING INVERSION...FOG SHOULD AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE QUICKER TO CLEAR ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
BY 18Z-20Z MOST PLACES. ELSEWHERE...EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AWAY FROM RIVER VALLEYS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 200 PM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...MADE A MINOR
CHANGE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. 10 FOOT SWELLS
ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BUOY 27 WHICH IS SOONER THAN EXPECTED, SO I
EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS. SWELLS ARRIVING
AT OFFSHORE BUOY 2 ARE NOT AS HIGH AS EXPECTED, SO THIS ADVISORY FOR
OUR WATERS MAY BE ABLE TO BE LOWERED EARLY TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING
THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 252227
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
227 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING CONTINUED STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS, BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON THE RIDGES, AND AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY
FOG. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT MOVING INTO THE COAST FROM THE WEST AND A LOW MOVING UP INTO
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY. DENSE FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE AND
ROGUE VALLEYS. CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
THAN TODAY BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR
INLAND AREAS. AIR STAGNATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND VALLEYS AS VALLEY INVERSIONS
CONTINUE AND THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING.

ALONG THE COAST, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE MARINE WATERS
TONIGHT. THEN THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT MARINE STRATUS MAY
EXTEND TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
INITIALLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD, THEN OVER MUCH OF THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AND COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
SISKIYOU, MODOC AND SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALONG THE COAST, THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, STALLING ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS AND JUST INLAND, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. ALSO ON TUESDAY, EXPECT SOME INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A PERIOD OF NO AIR STAGNATION
IN THE VALLEYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT MIXING MAY IMPROVE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AS WELL. CURRENTLY HAVE THE AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORY OUT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER THE HIGH PRESSURE MAY
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY SEE AIR
STAGNATION CONDITIONS RETURN TO INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY OR LATER
IN THE WEEK.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL LEAN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE CURRENT RIDGE BECAUSE THE
AMPLITUDE IS LOWER...BUT WE DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEY WARM TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE
AND SHORTER NIGHTS...THERE SHOULD BE LESS FOG COVERAGE LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS HANGS A FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT
HAS SHOWN THIS...AND THE ECMWF AND MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE DRY
AT THIS TIME...SO PREFER THE ECMWF AND HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUCKLES
SOME AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR SOME UPPER TROUGHS FROM THE
WEST TO MOVE IN...BUT THE FIRST OF THESE DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG. SO THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON. /SK


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...THE ONLY AREA WITH
LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS IS GRANTS PASS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THERE...BUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  TONIGHT WILL FEATURE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST. SPECIFICALLY...THERE IS
A CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS AFFECTING NORTH BEND AIRPORT BRIEFLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS AS THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS
CHANGING SOME. FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS...LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM NEAR GRANTS PASS FIRST...AND EXPAND TO
AFFECT THE UMPQUA BASIN...ILLINOIS VALLEY...AND MEDFORD AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT.  GIVEN A WEAKENING INVERSION...FOG SHOULD AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE QUICKER TO CLEAR ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
BY 18Z-20Z MOST PLACES. ELSEWHERE...EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AWAY FROM RIVER VALLEYS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 200 PM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...MADE A MINOR
CHANGE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. 10 FOOT SWELLS
ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BUOY 27 WHICH IS SOONER THAN EXPECTED, SO I
EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS. SWELLS ARRIVING
AT OFFSHORE BUOY 2 ARE NOT AS HIGH AS EXPECTED, SO THIS ADVISORY FOR
OUR WATERS MAY BE ABLE TO BE LOWERED EARLY TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING
THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 252227
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
227 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING CONTINUED STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS, BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON THE RIDGES, AND AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY
FOG. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT MOVING INTO THE COAST FROM THE WEST AND A LOW MOVING UP INTO
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY. DENSE FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE AND
ROGUE VALLEYS. CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
THAN TODAY BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR
INLAND AREAS. AIR STAGNATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND VALLEYS AS VALLEY INVERSIONS
CONTINUE AND THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING.

ALONG THE COAST, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE MARINE WATERS
TONIGHT. THEN THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT MARINE STRATUS MAY
EXTEND TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
INITIALLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD, THEN OVER MUCH OF THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AND COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
SISKIYOU, MODOC AND SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALONG THE COAST, THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, STALLING ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS AND JUST INLAND, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. ALSO ON TUESDAY, EXPECT SOME INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A PERIOD OF NO AIR STAGNATION
IN THE VALLEYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT MIXING MAY IMPROVE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AS WELL. CURRENTLY HAVE THE AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORY OUT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER THE HIGH PRESSURE MAY
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY SEE AIR
STAGNATION CONDITIONS RETURN TO INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY OR LATER
IN THE WEEK.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL LEAN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE CURRENT RIDGE BECAUSE THE
AMPLITUDE IS LOWER...BUT WE DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEY WARM TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE
AND SHORTER NIGHTS...THERE SHOULD BE LESS FOG COVERAGE LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS HANGS A FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT
HAS SHOWN THIS...AND THE ECMWF AND MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE DRY
AT THIS TIME...SO PREFER THE ECMWF AND HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUCKLES
SOME AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR SOME UPPER TROUGHS FROM THE
WEST TO MOVE IN...BUT THE FIRST OF THESE DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG. SO THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON. /SK


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...THE ONLY AREA WITH
LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS IS GRANTS PASS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THERE...BUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  TONIGHT WILL FEATURE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST. SPECIFICALLY...THERE IS
A CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS AFFECTING NORTH BEND AIRPORT BRIEFLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS AS THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS
CHANGING SOME. FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS...LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM NEAR GRANTS PASS FIRST...AND EXPAND TO
AFFECT THE UMPQUA BASIN...ILLINOIS VALLEY...AND MEDFORD AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT.  GIVEN A WEAKENING INVERSION...FOG SHOULD AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE QUICKER TO CLEAR ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
BY 18Z-20Z MOST PLACES. ELSEWHERE...EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AWAY FROM RIVER VALLEYS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 200 PM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...MADE A MINOR
CHANGE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. 10 FOOT SWELLS
ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BUOY 27 WHICH IS SOONER THAN EXPECTED, SO I
EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS. SWELLS ARRIVING
AT OFFSHORE BUOY 2 ARE NOT AS HIGH AS EXPECTED, SO THIS ADVISORY FOR
OUR WATERS MAY BE ABLE TO BE LOWERED EARLY TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING
THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KPQR 252221
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT START TO
WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST
TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND
LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSIONS ARE RESULTING IN PERSISTENT FOG THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY IN SW WA. HAD TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON...BUT AS OF 21Z AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE.
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INVERSION IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE
2000 FT IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE WERE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AT
21Z. MARYS PEAK...AT 4137 FT IN THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE...WAS 67 DEG
AT 2025Z. EQUALLY AS IMPRESSIVE WAS THE 21Z 63 DEG READING AT THE
6000-FOOT TIMBERLINE SENSOR WITH A HUMIDITY OF JUST 11 PERCENT.
SEVERAL CASCADE RAWS SITES BETWEEN 2500 AND 4500 FEET WERE IN THE 70S
AS OF 22Z.

PRIMARY FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE
HIGH PRES CELL CENTERED OVER NE CALIFORNIA AND A CLOSED LOW JUST
SOUTH OF BAJA. 12Z MODEL FORECASTS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
16C TO 18C RANGE TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WARMEST 850 MB
TEMP RECORDED IN JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE
IN THE 1950S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE E TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO MON...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GFS HAS 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO 10 TO 13C BY 00Z TUE.
HIGHER PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD SEE MAX TEMPS MON
FAIRLY EARLY. VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO SEE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPCITING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING  ONTO THE
COAST TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THIS DECAYING FRONT WILL BE RATHER
SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 800 MB LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. NOT LOOKING
AT MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS...WITH DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY THAN RAIN. THE
ECMWF HAS H5 RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD WED...BUT TIME-HEIGHT AND
MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE.
THUS...HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WED. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE
LATE WED NIGHT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY
ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND COAST RANGE AND INTO SW WASHINGTON. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT REBUILDS ON
THU AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS BUT BRING DAILY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT INLAND SOME
TIME NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS WILL BE
SAT OR SUN. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH RESTRICTED TO LOWER END CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN GIVEN THE SUPPORT FOR THE LATER TIMING FROM THE ECMWF AND
NUMEROUS GEFS MEMBERS. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...ASTORIA HAS CLEARED OUT...MEANING ALL COASTAL SITES
ARE NOW VFR. THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND. FOG IS STILL LOWERING CIGS
AND VIS AT SOUTH VALLEY SITES TO LIFR/VLIFR. FOG OVER THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY IS BURNING OFF AS EXPECTED...IMPROVING ALL BUT
KHIO TO VFR. KHIO SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 23Z...AND POSSIBLY TO
VFR AFTER 00Z BEFORE FOG REDEVELOPS AROUND 02Z. KEUG MAY STILL
MAKE IT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 23Z AS FOG SLOWLY BURNS OFF
IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR AFTER 00Z
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND FOG STARTS TO RAPIDLY REDEVELOP. CIGS
AND VIS OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL VALLEY WILL DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR
THIS EVENING AROUND 02-04Z...WHILE THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WILL DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR A BIT LATER AROUND 03-06Z. LIFR/VLIFR CIGS
AND VIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DENSE FOG
REDEVELOPS OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS. TIMING OF FOG BURN-OFF
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH NORTH VALLEY SITES IMPROVING TO
VFR BY 20-22Z AND SOUTH VALLEY SITES STRUGGLING TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR BY 00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL START TO DROP AS FOG
BEGINS TO REDEVELOP AROUND 04Z. CIGS AND VIS DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR
AROUND 05Z AND WILL REMAIN WITH 1/4SM VIS FOG OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH FOG RAPIDLY
CLEARING TO VFR AROUND 21Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND 9 TO 10 FT WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE BEFORE STABILIZING
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS. GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS WILL NOT PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 8 TO 9 FT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
COULD COME BACK UP NEAR 10 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SOUTHERLY SURGE. MONDAY EVENING SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE...
FALLING TO AROUND 5 FT BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 252221
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
220 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT START TO
WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST
TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND
LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSIONS ARE RESULTING IN PERSISTENT FOG THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY IN SW WA. HAD TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON...BUT AS OF 21Z AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE.
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INVERSION IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE
2000 FT IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE WERE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AT
21Z. MARYS PEAK...AT 4137 FT IN THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE...WAS 67 DEG
AT 2025Z. EQUALLY AS IMPRESSIVE WAS THE 21Z 63 DEG READING AT THE
6000-FOOT TIMBERLINE SENSOR WITH A HUMIDITY OF JUST 11 PERCENT.
SEVERAL CASCADE RAWS SITES BETWEEN 2500 AND 4500 FEET WERE IN THE 70S
AS OF 22Z.

PRIMARY FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE
HIGH PRES CELL CENTERED OVER NE CALIFORNIA AND A CLOSED LOW JUST
SOUTH OF BAJA. 12Z MODEL FORECASTS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
16C TO 18C RANGE TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE WARMEST 850 MB
TEMP RECORDED IN JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE
IN THE 1950S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE E TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO MON...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GFS HAS 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO 10 TO 13C BY 00Z TUE.
HIGHER PARTS OF THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD SEE MAX TEMPS MON
FAIRLY EARLY. VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO SEE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPCITING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING  ONTO THE
COAST TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THIS DECAYING FRONT WILL BE RATHER
SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 800 MB LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. NOT LOOKING
AT MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS...WITH DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY THAN RAIN. THE
ECMWF HAS H5 RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD WED...BUT TIME-HEIGHT AND
MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP MARINE LAYER IN PLACE.
THUS...HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WED. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A PASSING SHORTWAVE
LATE WED NIGHT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY
ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND COAST RANGE AND INTO SW WASHINGTON. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT REBUILDS ON
THU AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS BUT BRING DAILY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO INTERIOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT INLAND SOME
TIME NEXT WEEKEND...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THIS WILL BE
SAT OR SUN. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL SUN NIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH RESTRICTED TO LOWER END CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN GIVEN THE SUPPORT FOR THE LATER TIMING FROM THE ECMWF AND
NUMEROUS GEFS MEMBERS. CULLEN
&&

.AVIATION...ASTORIA HAS CLEARED OUT...MEANING ALL COASTAL SITES
ARE NOW VFR. THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND. FOG IS STILL LOWERING CIGS
AND VIS AT SOUTH VALLEY SITES TO LIFR/VLIFR. FOG OVER THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY IS BURNING OFF AS EXPECTED...IMPROVING ALL BUT
KHIO TO VFR. KHIO SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 23Z...AND POSSIBLY TO
VFR AFTER 00Z BEFORE FOG REDEVELOPS AROUND 02Z. KEUG MAY STILL
MAKE IT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 23Z AS FOG SLOWLY BURNS OFF
IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR AFTER 00Z
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND FOG STARTS TO RAPIDLY REDEVELOP. CIGS
AND VIS OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL VALLEY WILL DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR
THIS EVENING AROUND 02-04Z...WHILE THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WILL DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR A BIT LATER AROUND 03-06Z. LIFR/VLIFR CIGS
AND VIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DENSE FOG
REDEVELOPS OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS. TIMING OF FOG BURN-OFF
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH NORTH VALLEY SITES IMPROVING TO
VFR BY 20-22Z AND SOUTH VALLEY SITES STRUGGLING TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR BY 00Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL START TO DROP AS FOG
BEGINS TO REDEVELOP AROUND 04Z. CIGS AND VIS DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR
AROUND 05Z AND WILL REMAIN WITH 1/4SM VIS FOG OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH FOG RAPIDLY
CLEARING TO VFR AROUND 21Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND 9 TO 10 FT WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE OUTER WATERS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE BEFORE STABILIZING
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS. GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS WILL NOT PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 8 TO 9 FT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
COULD COME BACK UP NEAR 10 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SOUTHERLY SURGE. MONDAY EVENING SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE...
FALLING TO AROUND 5 FT BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY


&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS65 KBOI 252202
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
302 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AS
EXPECTED. EXPECT STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO EXPAND DURING THE
NIGHT AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY IN THE UPPER TREASURE
AND MAGIC VALLEYS WHILE PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY. A WEAK SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD INVERSION
PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK. INVERSION WILL PROBABLY NOT
BREAK FOR THE OREGON LOWER TREASURE AND BAKER VALLEYS AS A MOIST
UPPER LOW CROSSES SW IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WEST THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACNW/IDAHO FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SPLIT FLOW WILL HAVE WEAK WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW LAYER
STRATUS TO FORM OR SPREAD. UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
WILL DETERMINE IF UPPER TROUGHS IN THE NW FLOW CAN INFLUENCE
NORTHERN TIER ZONES BUT MODEL TREND IS FOR A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE TO
BRING A STRONG INVERSION BACK. THE SECOND BAJA LOW SUNDAY LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK. DRY WEATHER WITH VERY MILD
MOUNTAIN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW AROUND
3500 FT MSL /INCLUDING BOISE/ AN INVERSION PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AT BOISE GET UP TO 40 DEGREES BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR STRATUS/VIS CONTINUED ALONG SEVERAL RIVER
BASINS THIS AFTERNOON-LOWER-SNAKE/MALHEUR/WEISER/PAYETTE. LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS AREAS BELOW AROUND 3K FT MSL WEST OF
BOISE...EXPAND ACROSS THE LONG VALLEY AND WEISER BASIN AND DRIFT
TOWARDS KJER/KTWF TONIGHT. INCREASING NE/SE WINDS /ESPECIALLY KJER/
LOOK TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL TO WIND-SHELTERED AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT
THIS AFTERNOON-MAINLY WEISER BASIN. VFR ELSEWHERE. IDAHO MTNS OBSCD
21Z TUESDAY-03Z WEDNESDAY AS A MOIST UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...CONTINUED INVERSION CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SYSTEM
CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY TEMPORARILY CLEAN
THE AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MAGIC VALLEY...BUT INVERSION CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM/WH
AVIATION.....VM
AIR STAGNATION...KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 252202
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
302 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AS
EXPECTED. EXPECT STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO EXPAND DURING THE
NIGHT AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY IN THE UPPER TREASURE
AND MAGIC VALLEYS WHILE PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY. A WEAK SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD INVERSION
PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK. INVERSION WILL PROBABLY NOT
BREAK FOR THE OREGON LOWER TREASURE AND BAKER VALLEYS AS A MOIST
UPPER LOW CROSSES SW IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WEST THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACNW/IDAHO FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SPLIT FLOW WILL HAVE WEAK WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW LAYER
STRATUS TO FORM OR SPREAD. UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
WILL DETERMINE IF UPPER TROUGHS IN THE NW FLOW CAN INFLUENCE
NORTHERN TIER ZONES BUT MODEL TREND IS FOR A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE TO
BRING A STRONG INVERSION BACK. THE SECOND BAJA LOW SUNDAY LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK. DRY WEATHER WITH VERY MILD
MOUNTAIN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW AROUND
3500 FT MSL /INCLUDING BOISE/ AN INVERSION PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AT BOISE GET UP TO 40 DEGREES BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR STRATUS/VIS CONTINUED ALONG SEVERAL RIVER
BASINS THIS AFTERNOON-LOWER-SNAKE/MALHEUR/WEISER/PAYETTE. LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS AREAS BELOW AROUND 3K FT MSL WEST OF
BOISE...EXPAND ACROSS THE LONG VALLEY AND WEISER BASIN AND DRIFT
TOWARDS KJER/KTWF TONIGHT. INCREASING NE/SE WINDS /ESPECIALLY KJER/
LOOK TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL TO WIND-SHELTERED AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT
THIS AFTERNOON-MAINLY WEISER BASIN. VFR ELSEWHERE. IDAHO MTNS OBSCD
21Z TUESDAY-03Z WEDNESDAY AS A MOIST UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...CONTINUED INVERSION CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SYSTEM
CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY TEMPORARILY CLEAN
THE AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MAGIC VALLEY...BUT INVERSION CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM/WH
AVIATION.....VM
AIR STAGNATION...KA



000
FXUS66 KPDT 252152
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
152 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND FLATTEN ALLOWING A WEAK SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SOME MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AND THEN
BEGIN TO COOL AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THE INVERSION WILL ALSO
REMAIN THUS KEEPING TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THERE COULD BE SOME SCOURING OUT
OF THE FOG BUT NOT A COMPLETE SOURING. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOW VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE FOG. TEMPERATURES IN THE FOG AREAS WILL REMAIN COOL DUE
TO A LACK OF SURFACE HEATING AND THE INVERSION. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WHICH A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS CAN OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN AND AROUND THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...WHICH WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN FOG-FREE LOCATIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH FOG
WILL BE PRESENT IN CENTRAL OREGON...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED IT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH THE 12Z GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
THE RIDGE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE AREA MOSTLY
DRY BUT ADDED SOME RAIN ALONG THE CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS.
COBB


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KPDT...KRDM AND KBDN. DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT
KYKM...KPSC...KALW AND KDLS CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 20Z...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST.
CAN EXPECT DENSE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FOG
MAY EXPAND INTO KPDT IF WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST AS IS FORECAST BY THE
MAV AT 09Z. BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES.  82


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  58  35  48 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  36  41  37  44 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  34  42  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  33  41  34  44 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  34  46  34  46 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  38  42  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  44  64  36  55 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  38  48  34  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  39  57  34  51 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  44  51  38  50 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY ORZ041-044.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY WAZ024-026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82








000
FXUS66 KPDT 252152
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
152 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND FLATTEN ALLOWING A WEAK SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SOME MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AND THEN
BEGIN TO COOL AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THE INVERSION WILL ALSO
REMAIN THUS KEEPING TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THERE COULD BE SOME SCOURING OUT
OF THE FOG BUT NOT A COMPLETE SOURING. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOW VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE FOG. TEMPERATURES IN THE FOG AREAS WILL REMAIN COOL DUE
TO A LACK OF SURFACE HEATING AND THE INVERSION. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WHICH A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS CAN OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN AND AROUND THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...WHICH WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN FOG-FREE LOCATIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH FOG
WILL BE PRESENT IN CENTRAL OREGON...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED IT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH THE 12Z GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
THE RIDGE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE AREA MOSTLY
DRY BUT ADDED SOME RAIN ALONG THE CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS.
COBB


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KPDT...KRDM AND KBDN. DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT
KYKM...KPSC...KALW AND KDLS CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 20Z...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST.
CAN EXPECT DENSE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FOG
MAY EXPAND INTO KPDT IF WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST AS IS FORECAST BY THE
MAV AT 09Z. BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES.  82


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  58  35  48 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  36  41  37  44 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  34  42  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  33  41  34  44 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  34  46  34  46 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  38  42  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  44  64  36  55 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  38  48  34  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  39  57  34  51 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  44  51  38  50 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY ORZ041-044.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY WAZ024-026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 252152
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
152 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND FLATTEN ALLOWING A WEAK SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SOME MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AND THEN
BEGIN TO COOL AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THE INVERSION WILL ALSO
REMAIN THUS KEEPING TRAPPED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THERE COULD BE SOME SCOURING OUT
OF THE FOG BUT NOT A COMPLETE SOURING. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOW VISIBILITIES
DUE TO THE FOG. TEMPERATURES IN THE FOG AREAS WILL REMAIN COOL DUE
TO A LACK OF SURFACE HEATING AND THE INVERSION. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN GRANDE RONDE VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WHICH A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS CAN OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN AND AROUND THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...WHICH WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN FOG-FREE LOCATIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH FOG
WILL BE PRESENT IN CENTRAL OREGON...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED IT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH THE 12Z GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
THE RIDGE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE AREA MOSTLY
DRY BUT ADDED SOME RAIN ALONG THE CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS.
COBB


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KPDT...KRDM AND KBDN. DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT
KYKM...KPSC...KALW AND KDLS CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 20Z...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST.
CAN EXPECT DENSE FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FOG
MAY EXPAND INTO KPDT IF WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST AS IS FORECAST BY THE
MAV AT 09Z. BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES.  82


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  45  58  35  48 /   0   0   0  10
ALW  36  41  37  44 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  34  42  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  33  41  34  44 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  34  46  34  46 /   0   0   0  10
ELN  38  42  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  44  64  36  55 /   0   0   0  10
LGD  38  48  34  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCD  39  57  34  51 /   0   0   0  10
DLS  44  51  38  50 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY ORZ041-044.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY WAZ024-026>029.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82









000
FXUS66 KMFR 251809
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1009 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...A SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DENSE FOG IN PLACE IN THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS IN SOUTHERN OREGON SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN YESTERDAY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND
11AM WITH CLEARING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 11 AM PST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS
BRINGING VALLEY FOG AND A CONTINUED STRONG INVERSION TO THE AREA.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE OCCURRING IN INLAND WESTERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, UMPQUA
VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS
MORNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE ON THE
MEDFORD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR IN WESTERN VALLEYS LATE THIS
MORNING OR AROUND NOON...WITH SOME LINGERING FOG INTO THE ROGUE
VALLEY NEAR GRANTS PASS, THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
UMPQUA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST
VALLEYS. HOWEVER A STRONG INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN INLAND
VALLEYS AND EXPECT CONTINUED STAGNANT AREA. COASTAL AREAS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD BUT CONTINUED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VALLEY INVERSIONS IN PLACE WITH STAGNANT
AIR. ALSO EXPECT NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY FOG WEST OF THE
CASCADES AGAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. OVER THE MOUNTAINS
EXPECT CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM THAN SUNDAY AS
THE INVERSION WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A
LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THIS LOW MAY
BRING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THAT THE WEAK FRONT OFF THE COAST MAY BE SLOWER TO
PUSH ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH
AROUND 18Z THIS MORNING THEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP
IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. -DW

MARINE...UPDATED AT 500 AM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...THE MAIN UPDATE
TO THE MARINE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEST
SWELL AT 14 TO 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY. BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO EARLY MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK
WHILE SEAS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-617-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC/CC/CC



000
FXUS66 KMFR 251809
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1009 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...A SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DENSE FOG IN PLACE IN THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS IN SOUTHERN OREGON SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN YESTERDAY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND
11AM WITH CLEARING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 11 AM PST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS
BRINGING VALLEY FOG AND A CONTINUED STRONG INVERSION TO THE AREA.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE OCCURRING IN INLAND WESTERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, UMPQUA
VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS
MORNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE ON THE
MEDFORD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR IN WESTERN VALLEYS LATE THIS
MORNING OR AROUND NOON...WITH SOME LINGERING FOG INTO THE ROGUE
VALLEY NEAR GRANTS PASS, THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
UMPQUA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST
VALLEYS. HOWEVER A STRONG INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN INLAND
VALLEYS AND EXPECT CONTINUED STAGNANT AREA. COASTAL AREAS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD BUT CONTINUED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VALLEY INVERSIONS IN PLACE WITH STAGNANT
AIR. ALSO EXPECT NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY FOG WEST OF THE
CASCADES AGAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. OVER THE MOUNTAINS
EXPECT CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM THAN SUNDAY AS
THE INVERSION WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A
LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THIS LOW MAY
BRING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THAT THE WEAK FRONT OFF THE COAST MAY BE SLOWER TO
PUSH ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH
AROUND 18Z THIS MORNING THEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP
IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. -DW

MARINE...UPDATED AT 500 AM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...THE MAIN UPDATE
TO THE MARINE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEST
SWELL AT 14 TO 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY. BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO EARLY MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK
WHILE SEAS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-617-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC/CC/CC




000
FXUS66 KPDT 251724 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
925 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THESE WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND MONDAY...POSSIBLE RECORD
SETTING WARMTH. HOWEVER...AN INVERSION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN IN WHICH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED.
AREAS WHERE THIS IS OCCURRING WILL NOT SEE THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE COOLER AIR BEING TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION AND LACK OF SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP. OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN GRANDE
RONDE VALLEY. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KPDT...KRDM
AND KBDN. DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KYKM...KPSC...KALW AND KDLS
CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER
20Z...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST. CAN EXPECT DENSE FOG
AGAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FOG MAY EXPAND INTO KPDT
IF WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST AS IS FORECAST BY THE MAV AT 09Z. BUT HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WINDS WILL BE NEAR
CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES.
82

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 543 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA TODAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S WITH POSSIBLE LOWER 70S. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING. EXTENT OF FOG IMPLIES A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVER
THE BASIN WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SATELLITE SHOW A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDY IN
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS. THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY. ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS TODAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STARTING TO FALL AT THIS POINT.
EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH COOLER TEMPS. SURFACE GRADIENTS MAINTAIN WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING A WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING WITH COOLER TEMPS. 94

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  A MID/HIGH LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE 6000-6500 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET WILL GET
SOME LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  44  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  37  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  44  34  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  47  32  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  55  34  51  35 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  48  37  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  68  42  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  49  37  50  34 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  60  37  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  57  44  56  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ041.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ024-026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82






000
FXUS66 KPDT 251724 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
925 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THESE WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND MONDAY...POSSIBLE RECORD
SETTING WARMTH. HOWEVER...AN INVERSION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN IN WHICH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED.
AREAS WHERE THIS IS OCCURRING WILL NOT SEE THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE COOLER AIR BEING TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION AND LACK OF SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP. OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN GRANDE
RONDE VALLEY. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KPDT...KRDM
AND KBDN. DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KYKM...KPSC...KALW AND KDLS
CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER
20Z...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST. CAN EXPECT DENSE FOG
AGAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FOG MAY EXPAND INTO KPDT
IF WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST AS IS FORECAST BY THE MAV AT 09Z. BUT HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WINDS WILL BE NEAR
CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES.
82

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 543 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA TODAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S WITH POSSIBLE LOWER 70S. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING. EXTENT OF FOG IMPLIES A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVER
THE BASIN WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SATELLITE SHOW A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDY IN
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS. THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY. ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS TODAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STARTING TO FALL AT THIS POINT.
EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH COOLER TEMPS. SURFACE GRADIENTS MAINTAIN WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING A WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING WITH COOLER TEMPS. 94

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  A MID/HIGH LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE 6000-6500 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET WILL GET
SOME LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  44  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  37  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  44  34  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  47  32  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  55  34  51  35 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  48  37  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  68  42  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  49  37  50  34 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  60  37  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  57  44  56  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ041.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ024-026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82







000
FXUS66 KPQR 251708
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A VERY WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD FOG THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA OF SW WA. MANY SURFACE OBSERVING SITES
REPORTING ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY...THUS THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. PRIMARY FEATURES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS INCLUDE STRONG
HIGH PRES CELL CENTERED OVER NE CALIFORNIA WITH MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR
TO NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER. ANOTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A CLOSED LOW
JUST SOUTH OF BAJA.

THE 12Z KSLE SOUNDING TELLS THE SHORT-TERM STORY. VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS EVIDENCED BY MILD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOUNDING INDICATES THE BASE OF THE INVERSION
AROUND 800 TO 1000 FT. THUS...THE VALLEY FOG LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW.
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED TEMPS NEAR 60F AT 4500 TO 5000 FT WITH RH OF 10%
OR LESS. THE 6000 FT TIMBERLINE LODGE SENSOR WAS AT 52F AS OF 15Z.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE INTERIOR VALLEY MAX TEMPS. WITH SUCH
WIDESPREAD FOG...IT WOULD SEEM A GOOD BET THAT SOME OF IT WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY. AFTER A WARM DAY SAT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER TODAY DESPITE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT. TERRAIN ABOVE ABOUT 1K FT WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. MODEL FORECASTS STILL HAVE H8 TEMPS AROUND 16 TO 18 DEG C
TODAY...WHICH WOULD PUT IT CLOSE TO THE WARMEST H8 TEMP RECORDED IN
JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE IN THE 1950S. A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS REACHED
THE 60S SAT WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 12 C...SO 60S SHOULD BE EVEN MORE
COMMON THERE TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING 70. THE
BEACHES WILL ALSO BE ON THE MILD SIDE TODAY AS ANY FOG THERE SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BEFORE NOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE E TONIGHT AND MON...RESULTING IN
MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS FORECASTS 850 TEMPS OF
15 TO 18C 06Z MON...BUT DOWN TO 10 TO 13C BY 00Z TUE. HIGHER PARTS OF
THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD SEE MAX TEMPS MON FAIRLY EARLY.
VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSISTING AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DEPCITING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING
ONTO THE COAST BY TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THE DECAYING FRONT IS LIKELY
TO BE ON THE SHALLOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY INITIALLY LATE MON NIGHT AND
TUE MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS OVER
THE N AND W PARTS OF THE AREA TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /27
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR/VLIFR ACROSS MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPT KONP WHERE
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESTRICTED FOG TO THE YAQUINA BAY. EAST
WIND HAS DEVELOPED AT KAST...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOG OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...IMPROVING THIS SITE TO VFR BY 18Z. LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL NOT HELP MIX OUT THE FOG FROM BELOW...SO HAVE
TO WAIT FOR IT TO BURN OFF FROM ABOVE. SOUNDING TAKEN AT SALEM
THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE FOG WAS AROUND 2000 FT THICK AT
12Z. IMPROVEMENT TO IFR IS LIKELY AT NORTHERN SITES BY 19Z...WITH
FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR BY AROUND 21-22Z.
NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC FOR FULL CLEARING AT KHIO...THOUGH. SOUTH
VALLEY SITES WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE...WITH KEUG NOT RISING TO
IFR UNTIL 22Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR BY 23-00Z. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
KEUG WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TODAY.

FOG TO RETURN TONIGHT LOWERING CIGS AND VIS TO IFR BY AROUND
05-07Z AT NORTHERN VALLEY SITES...AND 02-04Z AT KSLE AND KEUG.
AS FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN...EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND VIS
TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 07-09Z AT NORTHERN SITES...AND 04-06Z IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OFFSHORE WINDS AT COASTAL SITES SHOULD
KEEP THEM VFR...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME FOG ADVECTED INTO THE
TERMINAL AT KAST FROM YOUNGS BAY AS WINDS LOOK TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT THIS SITE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT LIFR CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO IFR
BY 18Z. TERMINAL WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO IFR CIGS AND VIS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY 21Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS POSSIBLE BY 22Z. CIGS AND VIS TO DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR
THIS EVENING AROUND 06Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
AROUND 08Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
A SOUTHERLY SURGE MAY BRING WINDS UP BRIEFLY AT ONSET...WITH GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS THEREAFTER WILL BE GUSTING TO
AROUND 20-22 KTS...MAKING FOR A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS EVENT.
WILL EVALUATE FURTHER WITH NEW MODEL RUNS LATER THIS MORNING.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 8-9 FT. SWELL AT BUOY 005 EARLIER GAVE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE 9 TO 10 FT SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SEAS BACK UP TO AROUND 10 FT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SEAS RISE TO 10 FT BY AROUND NOON TODAY. SEAS LOOK TO EASE BACK
BELOW 10 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SEAS
GETTING BACK UP TO 10 FT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS MIDDAY
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD DROP BACK BELOW 10 FT MONDAY NIGHT AND SUBSIDE
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 AM
     PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 251708
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A VERY WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD FOG THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA OF SW WA. MANY SURFACE OBSERVING SITES
REPORTING ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY...THUS THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. PRIMARY FEATURES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS INCLUDE STRONG
HIGH PRES CELL CENTERED OVER NE CALIFORNIA WITH MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR
TO NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER. ANOTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A CLOSED LOW
JUST SOUTH OF BAJA.

THE 12Z KSLE SOUNDING TELLS THE SHORT-TERM STORY. VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS EVIDENCED BY MILD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOUNDING INDICATES THE BASE OF THE INVERSION
AROUND 800 TO 1000 FT. THUS...THE VALLEY FOG LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW.
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED TEMPS NEAR 60F AT 4500 TO 5000 FT WITH RH OF 10%
OR LESS. THE 6000 FT TIMBERLINE LODGE SENSOR WAS AT 52F AS OF 15Z.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE INTERIOR VALLEY MAX TEMPS. WITH SUCH
WIDESPREAD FOG...IT WOULD SEEM A GOOD BET THAT SOME OF IT WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY. AFTER A WARM DAY SAT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER TODAY DESPITE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT. TERRAIN ABOVE ABOUT 1K FT WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. MODEL FORECASTS STILL HAVE H8 TEMPS AROUND 16 TO 18 DEG C
TODAY...WHICH WOULD PUT IT CLOSE TO THE WARMEST H8 TEMP RECORDED IN
JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE IN THE 1950S. A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS REACHED
THE 60S SAT WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 12 C...SO 60S SHOULD BE EVEN MORE
COMMON THERE TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING 70. THE
BEACHES WILL ALSO BE ON THE MILD SIDE TODAY AS ANY FOG THERE SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BEFORE NOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE E TONIGHT AND MON...RESULTING IN
MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS FORECASTS 850 TEMPS OF
15 TO 18C 06Z MON...BUT DOWN TO 10 TO 13C BY 00Z TUE. HIGHER PARTS OF
THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES COULD SEE MAX TEMPS MON FAIRLY EARLY.
VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSISTING AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DEPCITING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING
ONTO THE COAST BY TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THE DECAYING FRONT IS LIKELY
TO BE ON THE SHALLOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY INITIALLY LATE MON NIGHT AND
TUE MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS OVER
THE N AND W PARTS OF THE AREA TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /27
&&

.AVIATION...LIFR/VLIFR ACROSS MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPT KONP WHERE
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESTRICTED FOG TO THE YAQUINA BAY. EAST
WIND HAS DEVELOPED AT KAST...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOG OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...IMPROVING THIS SITE TO VFR BY 18Z. LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL NOT HELP MIX OUT THE FOG FROM BELOW...SO HAVE
TO WAIT FOR IT TO BURN OFF FROM ABOVE. SOUNDING TAKEN AT SALEM
THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE FOG WAS AROUND 2000 FT THICK AT
12Z. IMPROVEMENT TO IFR IS LIKELY AT NORTHERN SITES BY 19Z...WITH
FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR BY AROUND 21-22Z.
NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC FOR FULL CLEARING AT KHIO...THOUGH. SOUTH
VALLEY SITES WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE...WITH KEUG NOT RISING TO
IFR UNTIL 22Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR BY 23-00Z. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
KEUG WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TODAY.

FOG TO RETURN TONIGHT LOWERING CIGS AND VIS TO IFR BY AROUND
05-07Z AT NORTHERN VALLEY SITES...AND 02-04Z AT KSLE AND KEUG.
AS FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN...EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND VIS
TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 07-09Z AT NORTHERN SITES...AND 04-06Z IN THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OFFSHORE WINDS AT COASTAL SITES SHOULD
KEEP THEM VFR...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME FOG ADVECTED INTO THE
TERMINAL AT KAST FROM YOUNGS BAY AS WINDS LOOK TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT THIS SITE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT LIFR CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO IFR
BY 18Z. TERMINAL WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO IFR CIGS AND VIS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY 21Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS POSSIBLE BY 22Z. CIGS AND VIS TO DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR
THIS EVENING AROUND 06Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
AROUND 08Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
A SOUTHERLY SURGE MAY BRING WINDS UP BRIEFLY AT ONSET...WITH GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KT. SOUTHERLY WINDS THEREAFTER WILL BE GUSTING TO
AROUND 20-22 KTS...MAKING FOR A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS EVENT.
WILL EVALUATE FURTHER WITH NEW MODEL RUNS LATER THIS MORNING.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 8-9 FT. SWELL AT BUOY 005 EARLIER GAVE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE 9 TO 10 FT SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SEAS BACK UP TO AROUND 10 FT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SEAS RISE TO 10 FT BY AROUND NOON TODAY. SEAS LOOK TO EASE BACK
BELOW 10 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SEAS
GETTING BACK UP TO 10 FT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS MIDDAY
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD DROP BACK BELOW 10 FT MONDAY NIGHT AND SUBSIDE
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 AM
     PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM TO
     11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 251645
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
945 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW TRANSITIONING INLAND
FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OREGON THIS
MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS ARE PRESENT IN THE LOWER TREASURE AND
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGETOPS AND SOUTHEAST OREGON IN SOUTHERN
HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL STAY COOLER
WITH THE INVERSION FROM SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIMITING THE MIXING OF
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
/ CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IDAHO SNAKE RIVER BASIN/ TO MOVE INTO
THE MAGIC VALLEY TOWARDS THE TREASURE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...TWO AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS/VIS...MAINLY KMAN-KONO-
KBKE AND KMYL VCNTY. PATCHY LIFR/AREAS MVFR FOG I-84 CORRIDOR AND
LONG VALLEY. HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE. EXPECT ST/FG TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FG/ST SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
FROM THE E...AND DETERIORATE ACROSS THE KBKE-KMAN-KMYL VALLEY AREAS.
ELSEWHERE VFR EXCEPT PATCHY FOG. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE UP TO 10
KTS. WINDS ALOFT NW TO W THROUGH 21Z THEN W TO SW THROUGH MONDAY 5-
15 KTS AS A HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...AIR QUALITY WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
SYSTEM NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
TEMPORARILY CLEAN THE AIR...BUT ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SW IDAHO MTNS WILL REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH EVEN GREATER DEPARTURES /15-20 DEGREES/ ACROSS
SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL TOUCH 60. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MAKE FOR A STEEP INVERSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST MODELS ALL MAINTAIN A
STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WIND FROM THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY TO ABOUT THE ADA/CANYON COUNTY LINE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR TODAY EXPECT THE WIND TO CONTAIN THE FOG OR LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO SE OREGON AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY IN SW
IDAHO. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY /KONO-
KEUL/. THERE IS A CHANCE LOW CLOUDS COULD FILL IN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH CURRENT CLOUD
COVER IN THE UPPER SNAKE BASIN SHOULD IT START TO ADVANCE
WESTWARD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ORIGINS IN THE MEXICAN
BAJA MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL BE
SPREADING PRECIP CHANCES IN ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER THEN TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. MODELS ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE IN AGREEMENT OF THE
TROUGH TURNING AND MAKING A MORE ENE TRAJECTORY AS IT APPROACHES
IDAHO. THEREFORE...BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
MOSTLY IN IDAHO AND LESS SO IN EASTERN OREGON. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 4500-5500 FT. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE MEXICAN BAJA IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KEEP OUR AREA IN A SPLIT FLOW
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
NONETHELESS...THURSDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....VJM
AIR STAGNATION...KA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 251645
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
945 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW TRANSITIONING INLAND
FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OREGON THIS
MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS ARE PRESENT IN THE LOWER TREASURE AND
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGETOPS AND SOUTHEAST OREGON IN SOUTHERN
HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL STAY COOLER
WITH THE INVERSION FROM SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIMITING THE MIXING OF
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
/ CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IDAHO SNAKE RIVER BASIN/ TO MOVE INTO
THE MAGIC VALLEY TOWARDS THE TREASURE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...TWO AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS/VIS...MAINLY KMAN-KONO-
KBKE AND KMYL VCNTY. PATCHY LIFR/AREAS MVFR FOG I-84 CORRIDOR AND
LONG VALLEY. HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE. EXPECT ST/FG TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FG/ST SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
FROM THE E...AND DETERIORATE ACROSS THE KBKE-KMAN-KMYL VALLEY AREAS.
ELSEWHERE VFR EXCEPT PATCHY FOG. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE UP TO 10
KTS. WINDS ALOFT NW TO W THROUGH 21Z THEN W TO SW THROUGH MONDAY 5-
15 KTS AS A HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...AIR QUALITY WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
SYSTEM NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
TEMPORARILY CLEAN THE AIR...BUT ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SW IDAHO MTNS WILL REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH EVEN GREATER DEPARTURES /15-20 DEGREES/ ACROSS
SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL TOUCH 60. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MAKE FOR A STEEP INVERSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST MODELS ALL MAINTAIN A
STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WIND FROM THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY TO ABOUT THE ADA/CANYON COUNTY LINE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR TODAY EXPECT THE WIND TO CONTAIN THE FOG OR LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO SE OREGON AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY IN SW
IDAHO. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY /KONO-
KEUL/. THERE IS A CHANCE LOW CLOUDS COULD FILL IN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH CURRENT CLOUD
COVER IN THE UPPER SNAKE BASIN SHOULD IT START TO ADVANCE
WESTWARD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ORIGINS IN THE MEXICAN
BAJA MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL BE
SPREADING PRECIP CHANCES IN ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER THEN TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. MODELS ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE IN AGREEMENT OF THE
TROUGH TURNING AND MAKING A MORE ENE TRAJECTORY AS IT APPROACHES
IDAHO. THEREFORE...BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
MOSTLY IN IDAHO AND LESS SO IN EASTERN OREGON. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 4500-5500 FT. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE MEXICAN BAJA IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KEEP OUR AREA IN A SPLIT FLOW
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
NONETHELESS...THURSDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....VJM
AIR STAGNATION...KA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 251645
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
945 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW TRANSITIONING INLAND
FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OREGON THIS
MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS ARE PRESENT IN THE LOWER TREASURE AND
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGETOPS AND SOUTHEAST OREGON IN SOUTHERN
HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL STAY COOLER
WITH THE INVERSION FROM SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIMITING THE MIXING OF
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
/ CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IDAHO SNAKE RIVER BASIN/ TO MOVE INTO
THE MAGIC VALLEY TOWARDS THE TREASURE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...TWO AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS/VIS...MAINLY KMAN-KONO-
KBKE AND KMYL VCNTY. PATCHY LIFR/AREAS MVFR FOG I-84 CORRIDOR AND
LONG VALLEY. HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE. EXPECT ST/FG TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FG/ST SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
FROM THE E...AND DETERIORATE ACROSS THE KBKE-KMAN-KMYL VALLEY AREAS.
ELSEWHERE VFR EXCEPT PATCHY FOG. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE UP TO 10
KTS. WINDS ALOFT NW TO W THROUGH 21Z THEN W TO SW THROUGH MONDAY 5-
15 KTS AS A HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...AIR QUALITY WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
SYSTEM NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
TEMPORARILY CLEAN THE AIR...BUT ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SW IDAHO MTNS WILL REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH EVEN GREATER DEPARTURES /15-20 DEGREES/ ACROSS
SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL TOUCH 60. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MAKE FOR A STEEP INVERSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST MODELS ALL MAINTAIN A
STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WIND FROM THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY TO ABOUT THE ADA/CANYON COUNTY LINE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR TODAY EXPECT THE WIND TO CONTAIN THE FOG OR LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO SE OREGON AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY IN SW
IDAHO. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY /KONO-
KEUL/. THERE IS A CHANCE LOW CLOUDS COULD FILL IN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH CURRENT CLOUD
COVER IN THE UPPER SNAKE BASIN SHOULD IT START TO ADVANCE
WESTWARD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ORIGINS IN THE MEXICAN
BAJA MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL BE
SPREADING PRECIP CHANCES IN ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER THEN TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. MODELS ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE IN AGREEMENT OF THE
TROUGH TURNING AND MAKING A MORE ENE TRAJECTORY AS IT APPROACHES
IDAHO. THEREFORE...BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
MOSTLY IN IDAHO AND LESS SO IN EASTERN OREGON. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 4500-5500 FT. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE MEXICAN BAJA IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KEEP OUR AREA IN A SPLIT FLOW
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
NONETHELESS...THURSDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....VJM
AIR STAGNATION...KA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 251645
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
945 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW TRANSITIONING INLAND
FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OREGON THIS
MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS ARE PRESENT IN THE LOWER TREASURE AND
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGETOPS AND SOUTHEAST OREGON IN SOUTHERN
HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL STAY COOLER
WITH THE INVERSION FROM SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIMITING THE MIXING OF
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
/ CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IDAHO SNAKE RIVER BASIN/ TO MOVE INTO
THE MAGIC VALLEY TOWARDS THE TREASURE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...TWO AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS/VIS...MAINLY KMAN-KONO-
KBKE AND KMYL VCNTY. PATCHY LIFR/AREAS MVFR FOG I-84 CORRIDOR AND
LONG VALLEY. HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE. EXPECT ST/FG TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FG/ST SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
FROM THE E...AND DETERIORATE ACROSS THE KBKE-KMAN-KMYL VALLEY AREAS.
ELSEWHERE VFR EXCEPT PATCHY FOG. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE UP TO 10
KTS. WINDS ALOFT NW TO W THROUGH 21Z THEN W TO SW THROUGH MONDAY 5-
15 KTS AS A HIGH CENTER CROSSES THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...AIR QUALITY WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
SYSTEM NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
TEMPORARILY CLEAN THE AIR...BUT ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SW IDAHO MTNS WILL REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH EVEN GREATER DEPARTURES /15-20 DEGREES/ ACROSS
SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL TOUCH 60. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MAKE FOR A STEEP INVERSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST MODELS ALL MAINTAIN A
STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WIND FROM THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY TO ABOUT THE ADA/CANYON COUNTY LINE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR TODAY EXPECT THE WIND TO CONTAIN THE FOG OR LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO SE OREGON AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY IN SW
IDAHO. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY /KONO-
KEUL/. THERE IS A CHANCE LOW CLOUDS COULD FILL IN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH CURRENT CLOUD
COVER IN THE UPPER SNAKE BASIN SHOULD IT START TO ADVANCE
WESTWARD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ORIGINS IN THE MEXICAN
BAJA MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL BE
SPREADING PRECIP CHANCES IN ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER THEN TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. MODELS ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE IN AGREEMENT OF THE
TROUGH TURNING AND MAKING A MORE ENE TRAJECTORY AS IT APPROACHES
IDAHO. THEREFORE...BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
MOSTLY IN IDAHO AND LESS SO IN EASTERN OREGON. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 4500-5500 FT. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE MEXICAN BAJA IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KEEP OUR AREA IN A SPLIT FLOW
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
NONETHELESS...THURSDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....VJM
AIR STAGNATION...KA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....EP




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251638
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS
BRINGING VALLEY FOG AND A CONTINUED STRONG INVERSION TO THE AREA.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE OCCURRING IN INLAND WESTERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, UMPQUA
VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS
MORNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE ON THE
MEDFORD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR IN WESTERN VALLEYS LATE THIS
MORNING OR AROUND NOOON...WITH SOME LINGERING FOG INTO THE ROGUE
VALLEY NEAR GRANTS PASS, THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
UMPQUA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST
VALLEYS. HOWEVER A STRONG INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN INLAND
VALLEYS AND EXPECT CONTINUED STAGNANT AREA.  COASTAL AREAS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD BUT CONTINUED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VALLEY INVERSIONS IN PLACE WITH STAGNANT
AIR. ALSO EXPECT NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY FOG WEST OF THE
CASCADES AGAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. OVER THE MOUNTAINS
EXPECT CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM THAN SUNDAY AS
THE INVERSION WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A
LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THIS LOW MAY
BRING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THAT THE WEAK FRONT OFF THE COAST MAY BE SLOWER TO
PUSH ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH
AROUND 18Z THIS MORNING THEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP
IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 500 AM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...THE MAIN UPDATE
TO THE MARINE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEST
SWELL AT 14 TO 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY. BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO EARLY MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK
WHILE SEAS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-617-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080-280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251638
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS
BRINGING VALLEY FOG AND A CONTINUED STRONG INVERSION TO THE AREA.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE OCCURRING IN INLAND WESTERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, UMPQUA
VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS
MORNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE ON THE
MEDFORD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR IN WESTERN VALLEYS LATE THIS
MORNING OR AROUND NOOON...WITH SOME LINGERING FOG INTO THE ROGUE
VALLEY NEAR GRANTS PASS, THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
UMPQUA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST
VALLEYS. HOWEVER A STRONG INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN INLAND
VALLEYS AND EXPECT CONTINUED STAGNANT AREA.  COASTAL AREAS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD BUT CONTINUED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VALLEY INVERSIONS IN PLACE WITH STAGNANT
AIR. ALSO EXPECT NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY FOG WEST OF THE
CASCADES AGAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. OVER THE MOUNTAINS
EXPECT CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM THAN SUNDAY AS
THE INVERSION WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A
LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THIS LOW MAY
BRING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THAT THE WEAK FRONT OFF THE COAST MAY BE SLOWER TO
PUSH ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH
AROUND 18Z THIS MORNING THEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP
IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 500 AM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...THE MAIN UPDATE
TO THE MARINE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEST
SWELL AT 14 TO 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY. BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO EARLY MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK
WHILE SEAS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-617-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080-280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC



000
FXUS66 KPDT 251631
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
831 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THESE WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND MONDAY...POSSIBLE RECORD
SETTING WARMTH. HOWEVER...AN INVERSION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN IN WHICH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED.
AREAS WHERE THIS IS OCCURRING WILL NOT SEE THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE COOLER AIR BEING TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION AND LACK OF SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP. OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN GRANDE
RONDE VALLEY. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.



&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 543 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA TODAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S WITH POSSIBLE LOWER 70S. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING. EXTENT OF FOG IMPLIES A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVER
THE BASIN WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SATELLITE SHOW A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDY IN
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS. THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY. ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS TODAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STARTING TO FALL AT THIS POINT.
EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH COOLER TEMPS. SURFACE GRADIENTS MAINTAIN WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING A WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING WITH COOLER TEMPS. 94

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  A MID/HIGH LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE 6000-6500 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET WILL GET
SOME LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT, EXCEPT AT KYKM AND KDLS, WHERE LOWER CIGS AND/OR REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO AREAS OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY CAUSE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS AT KYKM AND KDLS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z TODAY. KALW AND KPDT WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE WINDS
DUE TO DRAINAGE WINDS FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, WHICH WILL MIX OUT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  44  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  52  37  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  44  34  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  47  32  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  55  34  51  35 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  48  37  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  68  42  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  49  37  50  34 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  60  37  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  57  44  56  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING ORZ041.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY ORZ049.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WAZ024-026-027.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 251343 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
543 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA TODAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S WITH POSSIBLE LOWER 70S. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING. EXTENT OF FOG IMPLIES A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVER
THE BASIN WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SATELLITE SHOW A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDY IN
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS. THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY. ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS TODAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STARTING TO FALL AT THIS POINT.
EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH COOLER TEMPS. SURFACE GRADIENTS MAINTAIN WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING A WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING WITH COOLER TEMPS. 94

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  A MID/HIGH LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE 6000-6500 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET WILL GET
SOME LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT, EXCEPT AT KYKM AND KDLS, WHERE LOWER CIGS AND/OR REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO AREAS OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY CAUSE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS AT KYKM AND KDLS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z TODAY. KALW AND KPDT WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE WINDS
DUE TO DRAINAGE WINDS FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, WHICH WILL MIX OUT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  41  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  60  41  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  47  35  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  48  33  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  53  35  51  35 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  50  35  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  69  39  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  53  38  50  34 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  62  38  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  58  37  56  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PST MONDAY ORZ049.

WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/99/99










000
FXUS66 KPDT 251343 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
543 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA TODAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S WITH POSSIBLE LOWER 70S. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING. EXTENT OF FOG IMPLIES A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVER
THE BASIN WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SATELLITE SHOW A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDY IN
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS. THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY. ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS TODAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STARTING TO FALL AT THIS POINT.
EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH COOLER TEMPS. SURFACE GRADIENTS MAINTAIN WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING A WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING WITH COOLER TEMPS. 94

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  A MID/HIGH LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE 6000-6500 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET WILL GET
SOME LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT, EXCEPT AT KYKM AND KDLS, WHERE LOWER CIGS AND/OR REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO AREAS OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY CAUSE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS AT KYKM AND KDLS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z TODAY. KALW AND KPDT WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE WINDS
DUE TO DRAINAGE WINDS FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS, WHICH WILL MIX OUT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  41  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  60  41  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  47  35  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  48  33  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  53  35  51  35 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  50  35  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  69  39  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  53  38  50  34 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  62  38  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  58  37  56  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PST MONDAY ORZ049.

WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/99/99









000
FXUS66 KMFR 251334
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
534 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AND THUS ALSO THE
INVERSION ARE AT PEAK STRENGTH OVER THE AREA WITH AREAS OF NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITIY THROUGH 10 AM PST. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE
SHALLOWNESS OF THE INVERSION LAYER SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY
AND MONDAY. A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE WEST COAST LEADING A STAGNANT AIRMASS WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER RAPID
DROP IN VISIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING. JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA THERE IS
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO SPIN TO THE NE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST ON TUESDAY..WHILE LETTING UPSTREAM TROUGH
TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MAY HELP LOOSEN THE GRIP ON THE
AIR STAGNATION A BIT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL
BE HEADING TOWARD WA AND NORTHERN OR. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT THE COOS COUNTY COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH MAINLY MORE
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE IN OREGON. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE LIGHT
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE THE REMNANT OF
THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO NEVADA.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE BRINGS THE RIDGE BACK
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. /FB

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN THE VERY
EARLY MORNING TO DAWN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF. FOG WITH MVFR VIS HAS ALREADY FORMED OVER PARTS OF THE
COAST (INCLUDING KOTH) AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND MAY
DRIVE THE FOG OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT ON THE EAST SIDE, SO FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. -WRIGHT/BPN

MARINE...UPDATED AT 800 PM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. -WRIGHT/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-617-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080-280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251334
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
534 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AND THUS ALSO THE
INVERSION ARE AT PEAK STRENGTH OVER THE AREA WITH AREAS OF NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITIY THROUGH 10 AM PST. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE
SHALLOWNESS OF THE INVERSION LAYER SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY
AND MONDAY. A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE WEST COAST LEADING A STAGNANT AIRMASS WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER RAPID
DROP IN VISIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING. JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA THERE IS
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO SPIN TO THE NE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST ON TUESDAY..WHILE LETTING UPSTREAM TROUGH
TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MAY HELP LOOSEN THE GRIP ON THE
AIR STAGNATION A BIT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL
BE HEADING TOWARD WA AND NORTHERN OR. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT THE COOS COUNTY COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH MAINLY MORE
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE IN OREGON. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE LIGHT
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE THE REMNANT OF
THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO NEVADA.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE BRINGS THE RIDGE BACK
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. /FB

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN THE VERY
EARLY MORNING TO DAWN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF. FOG WITH MVFR VIS HAS ALREADY FORMED OVER PARTS OF THE
COAST (INCLUDING KOTH) AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND MAY
DRIVE THE FOG OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT ON THE EAST SIDE, SO FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. -WRIGHT/BPN

MARINE...UPDATED AT 800 PM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. -WRIGHT/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-617-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080-280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251334
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
534 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AND THUS ALSO THE
INVERSION ARE AT PEAK STRENGTH OVER THE AREA WITH AREAS OF NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITIY THROUGH 10 AM PST. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE
SHALLOWNESS OF THE INVERSION LAYER SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY
AND MONDAY. A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE WEST COAST LEADING A STAGNANT AIRMASS WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER RAPID
DROP IN VISIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING. JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA THERE IS
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO SPIN TO THE NE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST ON TUESDAY..WHILE LETTING UPSTREAM TROUGH
TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MAY HELP LOOSEN THE GRIP ON THE
AIR STAGNATION A BIT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL
BE HEADING TOWARD WA AND NORTHERN OR. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT THE COOS COUNTY COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH MAINLY MORE
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE IN OREGON. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE LIGHT
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE THE REMNANT OF
THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO NEVADA.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE BRINGS THE RIDGE BACK
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. /FB

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN THE VERY
EARLY MORNING TO DAWN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF. FOG WITH MVFR VIS HAS ALREADY FORMED OVER PARTS OF THE
COAST (INCLUDING KOTH) AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND MAY
DRIVE THE FOG OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT ON THE EAST SIDE, SO FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. -WRIGHT/BPN

MARINE...UPDATED AT 800 PM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. -WRIGHT/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-617-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080-280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251334
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
534 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AND THUS ALSO THE
INVERSION ARE AT PEAK STRENGTH OVER THE AREA WITH AREAS OF NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITIY THROUGH 10 AM PST. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE
SHALLOWNESS OF THE INVERSION LAYER SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY
AND MONDAY. A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE WEST COAST LEADING A STAGNANT AIRMASS WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER RAPID
DROP IN VISIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING. JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA THERE IS
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO SPIN TO THE NE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST ON TUESDAY..WHILE LETTING UPSTREAM TROUGH
TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MAY HELP LOOSEN THE GRIP ON THE
AIR STAGNATION A BIT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL
BE HEADING TOWARD WA AND NORTHERN OR. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT THE COOS COUNTY COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH MAINLY MORE
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE IN OREGON. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE LIGHT
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE THE REMNANT OF
THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO NEVADA.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE BRINGS THE RIDGE BACK
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. /FB

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN THE VERY
EARLY MORNING TO DAWN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF. FOG WITH MVFR VIS HAS ALREADY FORMED OVER PARTS OF THE
COAST (INCLUDING KOTH) AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND MAY
DRIVE THE FOG OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT ON THE EAST SIDE, SO FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. -WRIGHT/BPN

MARINE...UPDATED AT 800 PM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. -WRIGHT/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-617-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080-280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW




000
FXUS66 KPDT 251333 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
530 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA TODAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S WITH POSSIBLE LOWER 70S. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING. EXTENT OF FOG IMPLIES A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVER
THE BASIN WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SATELLITE SHOW A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDY IN
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS. THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY. ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS TODAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STARTING TO FALL AT THIS POINT.
EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH COOLER TEMPS. SURFACE GRADIENTS MAINTAIN WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING A WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING WITH COOLER TEMPS. 94

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  A MID/HIGH LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE 6000-6500 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET WILL GET
SOME LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY EXCEPT
AT KPSC, KYKM AND KDLS, WHERE LOWER CIGS AND/OR REDUCED VISIBILITY
DUE TO AREAS OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY CAUSE LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  41  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  60  41  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  47  35  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  48  33  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  53  35  51  35 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  50  35  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  69  39  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  53  38  50  34 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  62  38  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  58  37  56  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PST MONDAY ORZ049.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/99/99







000
FXUS66 KMFR 251130
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
330 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY
AND MONDAY. A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE WEST COAST LEADING A STAGNANT AIRMASS WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER RAPID
DROP IN VISIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING. JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA THERE IS
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO SPIN TO THE NE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST ON TUESDAY..WHILE LETTING UPSTREAM TROUGH
TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MAY HELP LOOSEN THE GRIP ON THE
AIR STAGNATION A BIT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL
BE HEADING TOWARD WA AND NORTHERN OR. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT THE COOS COUNTY COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH MAINLY MORE
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE IN OREGON. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE LIGHT
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE THE REMNANT OF
THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO NEVADA.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE BRINGS THE RIDGE BACK
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN THE VERY
EARLY MORNING TO DAWN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF. FOG WITH MVFR VIS HAS ALREADY FORMED OVER PARTS OF THE
COAST (INCLUDING KOTH) AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND MAY
DRIVE THE FOG OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT ON THE EAST SIDE, SO FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. -WRIGHT/BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 800 PM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. -WRIGHT/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251130
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
330 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY
AND MONDAY. A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE WEST COAST LEADING A STAGNANT AIRMASS WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER RAPID
DROP IN VISIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING. JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA THERE IS
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO SPIN TO THE NE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST ON TUESDAY..WHILE LETTING UPSTREAM TROUGH
TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MAY HELP LOOSEN THE GRIP ON THE
AIR STAGNATION A BIT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL
BE HEADING TOWARD WA AND NORTHERN OR. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT THE COOS COUNTY COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH MAINLY MORE
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE IN OREGON. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE LIGHT
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE THE REMNANT OF
THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO NEVADA.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE BRINGS THE RIDGE BACK
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN THE VERY
EARLY MORNING TO DAWN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF. FOG WITH MVFR VIS HAS ALREADY FORMED OVER PARTS OF THE
COAST (INCLUDING KOTH) AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND MAY
DRIVE THE FOG OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT ON THE EAST SIDE, SO FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. -WRIGHT/BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 800 PM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. -WRIGHT/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW



000
FXUS66 KPQR 251105
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A VERY
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN WIDESPREAD FOG AND
STRATUS FILLING IN THE VALLEYS AND ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE FOG HAS DEVELOPED UNDER A VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...AND CONSIDERING HOW WIDESPREAD IT IS...IT WOULD SEEM A
GOOD BET THAT SOME OF IT WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART
OF THE DAY TODAY. SO...AFTER A WARM DAY SAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER TODAY DESPITE THE WARM AIR ALOFT. ABOVE
THE VALLEYS THOUGH...ABOVE ABOUT 1K FT...AIR MASS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM. MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS PEAK AROUND 16 TO 18
DEG C TODAY...WHICH WOULD PUT IT CLOSE TO THE WARMEST H8 TEMP
RECORDED IN JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE IN
THE 1950S. A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE
FOOTHILLS REACHED THE 60S SAT WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 12 C...SO 60S
SHOULD BE EVEN MORE COMMON THERE TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCATIONS
TOPPING 70. WITH A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...BEACHES TOO WILL BE ON THE
MILD SIDE TODAY AS ANY FOG THERE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BEFORE NOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
E TONIGHT AND MON...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS. VALLEYS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSISTING AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS
DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DEPCITING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING
ONTO THE COAST BY TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THE DECAYING FRONT IS LIKELY
TO BE ON THE SHALLOW SIDE...ESP INITIALLY LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. THERE IS STILL HOWEVER SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW
POPS OVER THE N AND W PARTS OF THE AREA TUE.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /27
&&

.AVIATION...VLIFR UNDER FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KONP WHERE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESTRICTED FOG TO
YAQUINA BAY. LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL NOT HELP IMPROVE
CONDITIONS FROM BELOW SO WILL BE LOOKING MORE AT BURNING OFF THE
DECK FROM ABOVE. A COUPLE AMDAR AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM THE 09Z
HOUR INDICATE A ROUGH TOP OF THE DECK TO BE AROUND 1000 FEET MSL.
USING THAT AS INPUT FOR LOCAL GUIDANCE GIVES LIFTING TO IFR AROUND
19Z AND CLEARING TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH AROUND THE 21Z HOUR. AND
ABOUT 19Z FOR THE SOUTH VALLEY. VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PACK THE MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH KEUG NOT
RISING TO IFR UNTIL AS LATE AS 22Z BUT THEN CLEARING QUICKLY
THEREAFTER.

EXPECT A VERY SHORT WINDOW FOR KEUG...HOWEVER...AS LIFR MAY RETURN
AS EARLY AS 26/02Z FRO THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHER AREAS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN AT LEAST IFR UNTIL 05-07Z BEFORE FOG REDEVELOPS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS HOVERING AROUND FIELD
MINIMUMS THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z WITH CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO
IFR FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD PER LAMP GUIDANCE. CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD SHOW ONLY ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR REMAINING AFTER
19Z BUT WE ARE ALSO UNDER AN UNUSUALLY STRONG INVERSION ALOFT.
WILL PROBABLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND GIVE MVFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO VLIFR AROUND
06Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. MODELS THEN
SHOW A SOUTHERLY SURGE ENTERING THE WATERS. WOULD EXPECT A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT THE ONSET. SOUTHERLY WINDS
THEREAFTER APPEAR TO LOCALLY GUST AROUND 22 KT MAKING FOR A
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS EVENT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 30 NM
OR MORE OFFSHORE. GIVEN THAT IFFY AND SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED
NATURE...WILL NOT ISSUE FOR WINDS AT THIS TIME. WINDS EASE MONDAY
MIGHT AND REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT UNTIL PERHAPS A WEEK FROM NOW.

SEAS HAVE STUBBORNLY REMAINED AROUND 9 TO 11 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE SEAS ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
AND ALSO BROUGHT THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS BACK IN. BUOY 005
CONTINUES TO RUN ABOUT 12FT AT THIS HOUR AND WILL TAKE AT LEAST 12
HOURS AFTER IT DROPS TO SEE THE SWELL TRAIN FINALLY EASE BELOW 10
FT CLOSER TO SHORE. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM
     TO 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM
     TO 11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 251105
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A VERY
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN WIDESPREAD FOG AND
STRATUS FILLING IN THE VALLEYS AND ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE FOG HAS DEVELOPED UNDER A VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...AND CONSIDERING HOW WIDESPREAD IT IS...IT WOULD SEEM A
GOOD BET THAT SOME OF IT WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART
OF THE DAY TODAY. SO...AFTER A WARM DAY SAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER TODAY DESPITE THE WARM AIR ALOFT. ABOVE
THE VALLEYS THOUGH...ABOVE ABOUT 1K FT...AIR MASS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM. MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS PEAK AROUND 16 TO 18
DEG C TODAY...WHICH WOULD PUT IT CLOSE TO THE WARMEST H8 TEMP
RECORDED IN JANUARY IN NW OREGON SINCE RECORDS BECAME AVAILABLE IN
THE 1950S. A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADE
FOOTHILLS REACHED THE 60S SAT WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 12 C...SO 60S
SHOULD BE EVEN MORE COMMON THERE TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCATIONS
TOPPING 70. WITH A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...BEACHES TOO WILL BE ON THE
MILD SIDE TODAY AS ANY FOG THERE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BEFORE NOON.

THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
E TONIGHT AND MON...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS. VALLEYS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSISTING AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS
DURING THE DAY MON.

MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DEPCITING A WEAK FRONT PUSHING
ONTO THE COAST BY TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MOISTURE WITH THE DECAYING FRONT IS LIKELY
TO BE ON THE SHALLOW SIDE...ESP INITIALLY LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. THERE IS STILL HOWEVER SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW
POPS OVER THE N AND W PARTS OF THE AREA TUE.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS. /27
&&

.AVIATION...VLIFR UNDER FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KONP WHERE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESTRICTED FOG TO
YAQUINA BAY. LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL NOT HELP IMPROVE
CONDITIONS FROM BELOW SO WILL BE LOOKING MORE AT BURNING OFF THE
DECK FROM ABOVE. A COUPLE AMDAR AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM THE 09Z
HOUR INDICATE A ROUGH TOP OF THE DECK TO BE AROUND 1000 FEET MSL.
USING THAT AS INPUT FOR LOCAL GUIDANCE GIVES LIFTING TO IFR AROUND
19Z AND CLEARING TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH AROUND THE 21Z HOUR. AND
ABOUT 19Z FOR THE SOUTH VALLEY. VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PACK THE MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH KEUG NOT
RISING TO IFR UNTIL AS LATE AS 22Z BUT THEN CLEARING QUICKLY
THEREAFTER.

EXPECT A VERY SHORT WINDOW FOR KEUG...HOWEVER...AS LIFR MAY RETURN
AS EARLY AS 26/02Z FRO THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHER AREAS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN AT LEAST IFR UNTIL 05-07Z BEFORE FOG REDEVELOPS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS HOVERING AROUND FIELD
MINIMUMS THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z WITH CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO
IFR FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD PER LAMP GUIDANCE. CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD SHOW ONLY ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR REMAINING AFTER
19Z BUT WE ARE ALSO UNDER AN UNUSUALLY STRONG INVERSION ALOFT.
WILL PROBABLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND GIVE MVFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO VLIFR AROUND
06Z. /JBONK

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. MODELS THEN
SHOW A SOUTHERLY SURGE ENTERING THE WATERS. WOULD EXPECT A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS AT THE ONSET. SOUTHERLY WINDS
THEREAFTER APPEAR TO LOCALLY GUST AROUND 22 KT MAKING FOR A
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS EVENT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 30 NM
OR MORE OFFSHORE. GIVEN THAT IFFY AND SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED
NATURE...WILL NOT ISSUE FOR WINDS AT THIS TIME. WINDS EASE MONDAY
MIGHT AND REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT UNTIL PERHAPS A WEEK FROM NOW.

SEAS HAVE STUBBORNLY REMAINED AROUND 9 TO 11 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE SEAS ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
AND ALSO BROUGHT THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS BACK IN. BUOY 005
CONTINUES TO RUN ABOUT 12FT AT THIS HOUR AND WILL TAKE AT LEAST 12
HOURS AFTER IT DROPS TO SEE THE SWELL TRAIN FINALLY EASE BELOW 10
FT CLOSER TO SHORE. /JBONK

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
     COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR GREATER
     VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
     FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM
     TO 10 AM PST THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 PM
     TO 11 PM PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPDT 251100
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA TODAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S WITH POSSIBLE LOWER 70S. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING. EXTENT OF FOG IMPLIES A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVER
THE BASIN WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SATELLITE SHOW A LITTLE CIRRUS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDY IN
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS. THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY. ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS TODAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STARTING TO FALL AT THIS POINT.
EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH COOLER TEMPS. SURFACE GRADIENTS MAINTAIN WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY. THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING A WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING WITH COOLER TEMPS. 94

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  A MID/HIGH LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE 6000-6500 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET WILL GET
SOME LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT EXCEPT AT KPSC...KYKM...KALW...KDLS WHERE LOWER
CIGS AND VISIBILITY WITH PATCHY FOG MAY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES.  88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  41  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  60  41  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  47  35  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  48  33  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  53  35  51  35 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  50  35  49  32 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  69  39  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  53  38  50  34 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  62  38  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  58  37  56  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PST MONDAY ORZ049.

WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/99/99









000
FXUS65 KBOI 251027
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SW IDAHO MTNS WILL REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH EVEN GREATER DEPARTURES /15-20 DEGREES/ ACROSS
SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL TOUCH 60. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MAKE FOR A STEEP INVERSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST MODELS ALL MAINTAIN A
STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WIND FROM THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY TO ABOUT THE ADA/CANYON COUNTY LINE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR TODAY EXPECT THE WIND TO CONTAIN THE FOG OR LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO SE OREGON AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY IN SW
IDAHO. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY /KONO-
KEUL/. THERE IS A CHANCE LOW CLOUDS COULD FILL IN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH CURRENT CLOUD
COVER IN THE UPPER SNAKE BASIN SHOULD IT START TO ADVANCE
WESTWARD.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ORIGINS IN THE MEXICAN
BAJA MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL BE
SPREADING PRECIP CHANCES IN ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER THEN TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. MODELS ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE IN AGREEMENT OF THE
TROUGH TURNING AND MAKING A MORE ENE TRAJECTORY AS IT APPROACHES
IDAHO. THEREFORE...BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
MOSTLY IN IDAHO AND LESS SO IN EASTERN OREGON. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 4500-5500 FT. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE MEXICAN BAJA IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KEEP OUR AREA IN A SPLIT FLOW
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
NONETHELESS...THURSDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS/VIS...MAINLY IN THE TREASURE
MAGIC AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODS OF VFR MAY EXIST IN THESE AREAS DURING DAYLIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NEAR KONO MAY NOT. EXPECT
VFR EVERYWHERE ELSE. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NORTH AT 20-30KTS...THEN AFTER
25/21Z...VARIABLE AT 15KTS OR LESS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 251027
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SW IDAHO MTNS WILL REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH EVEN GREATER DEPARTURES /15-20 DEGREES/ ACROSS
SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL TOUCH 60. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MAKE FOR A STEEP INVERSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST MODELS ALL MAINTAIN A
STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WIND FROM THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY TO ABOUT THE ADA/CANYON COUNTY LINE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR TODAY EXPECT THE WIND TO CONTAIN THE FOG OR LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO SE OREGON AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY IN SW
IDAHO. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY /KONO-
KEUL/. THERE IS A CHANCE LOW CLOUDS COULD FILL IN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH CURRENT CLOUD
COVER IN THE UPPER SNAKE BASIN SHOULD IT START TO ADVANCE
WESTWARD.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ORIGINS IN THE MEXICAN
BAJA MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL BE
SPREADING PRECIP CHANCES IN ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER THEN TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. MODELS ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE IN AGREEMENT OF THE
TROUGH TURNING AND MAKING A MORE ENE TRAJECTORY AS IT APPROACHES
IDAHO. THEREFORE...BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
MOSTLY IN IDAHO AND LESS SO IN EASTERN OREGON. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 4500-5500 FT. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE MEXICAN BAJA IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KEEP OUR AREA IN A SPLIT FLOW
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
NONETHELESS...THURSDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS/VIS...MAINLY IN THE TREASURE
MAGIC AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODS OF VFR MAY EXIST IN THESE AREAS DURING DAYLIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NEAR KONO MAY NOT. EXPECT
VFR EVERYWHERE ELSE. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NORTH AT 20-30KTS...THEN AFTER
25/21Z...VARIABLE AT 15KTS OR LESS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250411
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
810 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN MEANS THAT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS..AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER.

SOME HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE MOVES NORTH OVER THE RIDGE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW
THE RADIATION COOLING A LITTLE...BUT ARE NOT THICK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT FOG IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING AND THE PDX AIRPORT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF SHALLOW FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES
NOT SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...STABLE AND RATHER MILD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER REGION
THROUGH SUN...WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ON SW FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ALREADY FORMING ACROSS REGION...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...LIKELY TO SEE
TOPS OF FOG/CLOUDS RUNNING AT 1000 TO 1500 FT. COASTAL FOG/CLOUDS
WILL BURN OFF SUN AM...BUT INLAND FOG/CLOUDS WILL TAKE MUCH
LONGER. SUSPECT MANY INLAND AREAS...SUCH AS COWLITZ VALLEY AND
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO S OF KSLE...MAY NOT BREAK OUT TO VFR TIL
CLOSE TO 23Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NOT MUCH GRADIENT...SO LIKELY TO SEE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS KPDX OPS AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...
AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUN AM. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z SUN.ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE...AS HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MON AM...BUT WILL
PICK UP A TAD LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION.

SEAS STILL HOLDING AT 10 FT ACROSS THE N WATERS...OR N OF CASCADE
HEAD. SEAS NOW RUNNING 8 TO 9 FT TO THE S OF CASCADE HEAD. WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR N WATERS TONIGHT. ANOTHER BAND OF
SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SUN...BUT THIS SWELL WILL BE DECAYING AS IT
ARRIVES. NO ADVISORY YET...AS APPEARS THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN UNDER
10 FT. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
     ON COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITION THIS
     EVENING...AND AGAIN SUN AM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250411
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
810 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN MEANS THAT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS..AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER.

SOME HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE MOVES NORTH OVER THE RIDGE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW
THE RADIATION COOLING A LITTLE...BUT ARE NOT THICK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT FOG IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING AND THE PDX AIRPORT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF SHALLOW FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES
NOT SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...STABLE AND RATHER MILD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER REGION
THROUGH SUN...WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ON SW FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ALREADY FORMING ACROSS REGION...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...LIKELY TO SEE
TOPS OF FOG/CLOUDS RUNNING AT 1000 TO 1500 FT. COASTAL FOG/CLOUDS
WILL BURN OFF SUN AM...BUT INLAND FOG/CLOUDS WILL TAKE MUCH
LONGER. SUSPECT MANY INLAND AREAS...SUCH AS COWLITZ VALLEY AND
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO S OF KSLE...MAY NOT BREAK OUT TO VFR TIL
CLOSE TO 23Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NOT MUCH GRADIENT...SO LIKELY TO SEE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS KPDX OPS AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...
AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUN AM. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z SUN.ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE...AS HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MON AM...BUT WILL
PICK UP A TAD LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION.

SEAS STILL HOLDING AT 10 FT ACROSS THE N WATERS...OR N OF CASCADE
HEAD. SEAS NOW RUNNING 8 TO 9 FT TO THE S OF CASCADE HEAD. WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR N WATERS TONIGHT. ANOTHER BAND OF
SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SUN...BUT THIS SWELL WILL BE DECAYING AS IT
ARRIVES. NO ADVISORY YET...AS APPEARS THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN UNDER
10 FT. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
     ON COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITION THIS
     EVENING...AND AGAIN SUN AM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250411
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
810 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN MEANS THAT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS..AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER.

SOME HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE MOVES NORTH OVER THE RIDGE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW
THE RADIATION COOLING A LITTLE...BUT ARE NOT THICK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT FOG IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING AND THE PDX AIRPORT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF SHALLOW FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES
NOT SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...STABLE AND RATHER MILD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER REGION
THROUGH SUN...WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ON SW FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ALREADY FORMING ACROSS REGION...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...LIKELY TO SEE
TOPS OF FOG/CLOUDS RUNNING AT 1000 TO 1500 FT. COASTAL FOG/CLOUDS
WILL BURN OFF SUN AM...BUT INLAND FOG/CLOUDS WILL TAKE MUCH
LONGER. SUSPECT MANY INLAND AREAS...SUCH AS COWLITZ VALLEY AND
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO S OF KSLE...MAY NOT BREAK OUT TO VFR TIL
CLOSE TO 23Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NOT MUCH GRADIENT...SO LIKELY TO SEE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS KPDX OPS AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...
AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUN AM. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z SUN.ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE...AS HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MON AM...BUT WILL
PICK UP A TAD LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION.

SEAS STILL HOLDING AT 10 FT ACROSS THE N WATERS...OR N OF CASCADE
HEAD. SEAS NOW RUNNING 8 TO 9 FT TO THE S OF CASCADE HEAD. WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR N WATERS TONIGHT. ANOTHER BAND OF
SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SUN...BUT THIS SWELL WILL BE DECAYING AS IT
ARRIVES. NO ADVISORY YET...AS APPEARS THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN UNDER
10 FT. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
     ON COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITION THIS
     EVENING...AND AGAIN SUN AM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250411
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
810 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN MEANS THAT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS..AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER.

SOME HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE MOVES NORTH OVER THE RIDGE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW
THE RADIATION COOLING A LITTLE...BUT ARE NOT THICK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT FOG IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING AND THE PDX AIRPORT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF SHALLOW FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES
NOT SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...STABLE AND RATHER MILD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER REGION
THROUGH SUN...WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ON SW FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ALREADY FORMING ACROSS REGION...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...LIKELY TO SEE
TOPS OF FOG/CLOUDS RUNNING AT 1000 TO 1500 FT. COASTAL FOG/CLOUDS
WILL BURN OFF SUN AM...BUT INLAND FOG/CLOUDS WILL TAKE MUCH
LONGER. SUSPECT MANY INLAND AREAS...SUCH AS COWLITZ VALLEY AND
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO S OF KSLE...MAY NOT BREAK OUT TO VFR TIL
CLOSE TO 23Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NOT MUCH GRADIENT...SO LIKELY TO SEE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS KPDX OPS AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...
AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUN AM. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z SUN.ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE...AS HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MON AM...BUT WILL
PICK UP A TAD LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION.

SEAS STILL HOLDING AT 10 FT ACROSS THE N WATERS...OR N OF CASCADE
HEAD. SEAS NOW RUNNING 8 TO 9 FT TO THE S OF CASCADE HEAD. WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR N WATERS TONIGHT. ANOTHER BAND OF
SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SUN...BUT THIS SWELL WILL BE DECAYING AS IT
ARRIVES. NO ADVISORY YET...AS APPEARS THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN UNDER
10 FT. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
     ON COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITION THIS
     EVENING...AND AGAIN SUN AM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




000
FXUS66 KMFR 250411
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
811 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS EVENING, AS THE INHERITED
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO WEIGHT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER NIGHT/MORNING OF DENSE FOG, AND WITH THE
INVERSION IN THE VALLEYS AS STRONG AS, IF NOT STRONGER THAN, LAST
NIGHT, THIS DOES SEEM PROBABLE. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST AS
NEEDED. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRATUS AND FOG WITH LIFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AROUND DAWN SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF. FOG WITH MVFR VIS
HAS ALREADY FORMED OVER PARTS OF THE COAST (INCLUDING KOTH) AND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND MAY DRIVE THE FOG OFFSHORE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT ON THE
EAST SIDE, SO FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WAS
NOT INCLUDED IN THE KLMT TAF SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 800 PM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. -WRIGHT/BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITION TO THE
AREA WITH STAGNANT AIR FOR INLAND VALLEYS. ON TUESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY WILL A LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE UP
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.

ALONG THE COAST, A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
EXPAND NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND SHIFT INLAND ON MONDAY. A CONTINUED
STRONG EAST- WEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
THE COAST WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND WINDS NEAR SHORE BECOME
SOUTHERLY.

INLAND, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING VERY WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S WEST OF THE CASCADES AND TO AROUND 60
EAST OF THE CASCADES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMEST
IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, ILLINOIS VALLEY
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW
THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VALLEY FOG OUT OF THE TALENT AND
ASHLAND AREAS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY RESULT IN
LESS FOG DEVELOPING IN THE MEDFORD AREA. ON MONDAY THE INVERSION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG, SO WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ON TUESDAY, A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THE HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAKENING PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE COAST LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE A LOW
TO THE SOUTH WILL PUSH INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOST THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THOUGH AND CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL BE IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE AREA EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
AND A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STAGNANT AIR PATTERN, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE STAGNANT AIR THOUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY LIMITED
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO STAGNANT AIR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK UP TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THE
5000 FOOT TEMPERATURES...A GOOD INDICATOR OF HOW WARM AN AIR MASS
WILL BE...SUGGEST TOP 10 PERCENT WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COAST COULD REACH TOP 5 PERCENT
WARMTH...AND READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
FOR THE COAST BY SATURDAY.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS FEBRUARY...OCCURRENCES OF OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
FOG DECREASE SHARPLY IN MOST PLACES...DUE TO SHORTER NIGHTS AND
INCREASING SUN ANGLE...AND LESS PRECIPITATION TOO. THEREFORE...AS
RIDGING BUILDS AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK WE HAVE ONLY KEPT FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS...AND THE
GRANTS PASS AREA. EVEN THESE AREAS COULD BE FOG-FREE GIVEN THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BPN/TRW/CC/NSK




000
FXUS66 KPQR 250411
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
810 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN MEANS THAT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS..AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER.

SOME HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE MOVES NORTH OVER THE RIDGE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW
THE RADIATION COOLING A LITTLE...BUT ARE NOT THICK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT FOG IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING AND THE PDX AIRPORT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF SHALLOW FOG. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE COAST WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED. TJ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES
NOT SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...STABLE AND RATHER MILD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER REGION
THROUGH SUN...WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ON SW FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ALREADY FORMING ACROSS REGION...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...LIKELY TO SEE
TOPS OF FOG/CLOUDS RUNNING AT 1000 TO 1500 FT. COASTAL FOG/CLOUDS
WILL BURN OFF SUN AM...BUT INLAND FOG/CLOUDS WILL TAKE MUCH
LONGER. SUSPECT MANY INLAND AREAS...SUCH AS COWLITZ VALLEY AND
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO S OF KSLE...MAY NOT BREAK OUT TO VFR TIL
CLOSE TO 23Z.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...NOT MUCH GRADIENT...SO LIKELY TO SEE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS KPDX OPS AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z...
AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUN AM. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK OUT TO VFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z SUN.ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE...AS HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH MON AM...BUT WILL
PICK UP A TAD LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION.

SEAS STILL HOLDING AT 10 FT ACROSS THE N WATERS...OR N OF CASCADE
HEAD. SEAS NOW RUNNING 8 TO 9 FT TO THE S OF CASCADE HEAD. WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR N WATERS TONIGHT. ANOTHER BAND OF
SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SUN...BUT THIS SWELL WILL BE DECAYING AS IT
ARRIVES. NO ADVISORY YET...AS APPEARS THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN UNDER
10 FT. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE. ROCKEY.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
     ON COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE SHOALWATER AND CASCADE HEAD.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITION THIS
     EVENING...AND AGAIN SUN AM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 250353
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
853 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE TREASURE
VALLEY TONIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO A STRONGER
INVERSION AND LESS CLOUDS. THE VISIBILITIES ARE ALREADY STARTING
TO LOWER...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF DENSE FOG YET.
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS AND IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS WHICH APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A VERY STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND COOLER IN THE VALLEYS DUE TO
THE INVERSION. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED MVFR/IFR STRATUS NEAR KONO THIS EVENING
BECOMING LIFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG FROM KBKE THROUGH THE TREASURE AND
MAGIC VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST NOON SUNDAY. COULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR STRATUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...
NORTHWEST 20-25 KTS DECREASING TO 10-20 KTS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN BELOW 5KFT MSL
THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO WARMING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE WEST COAST
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE
INVERSION...BUT AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO AND THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 60S NEAR BEND OR AND PENDLETON OR. LOW
STRATUS IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF IDAHO
AND NORTHEAST OREGON NEAR BAKER CITY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT AND IS
CONTINGENT ON THE STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LACK OF SNOW COVER
SHOULD IN TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS TO
BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MIX OUT INVERSION.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL AND NEAR AVERAGE UNDER
THE INVERSION WHILE THE TERRAIN ABOVE THE INVERSION APPROACHES
RECORD WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AIR QUALITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE NW U.S. THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY WILL BE
INTERRUPTED BY 2 SYSTEMS. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE INVERSION
ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/I-84 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TO ROUND OUT JANUARY 2015.

THE FIRST IMPULSE LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST AFFECT. IT LIFTS SSW TO NE
WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE NV BORDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLEND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY AS WELL AS THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS MAKES
SENSE WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE EC/GFS
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT - MOISTURE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS THE S HALF OF ID -
SO TRENDED OREGON POPS DOWN WEDNESDAY. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A
RELATIVELY WARM SYSTEM /FOR JANUARY/ WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY
AROUND 5200 TO 6500 FT.

THE SECOND SYSTEM IS A BIT COOLER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW THAT BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS /RAIN BELOW 5K
FT/  ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO FRIDAY /FASTER AND WETTER IN THE GFS.

BY SATURDAY JANUARY 31ST THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STRONG OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BUT LOWER HEIGHTS RETURN TO THE BAJA AREA...FOR
SPLIT FLOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS...AND PROBABLY A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
IDAHO...WHICH ACT TO SHUNT THE STORM TRACK INTO SE AK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JS
AIR STAGNATION...KA/BW
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 250353
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
853 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE TREASURE
VALLEY TONIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO A STRONGER
INVERSION AND LESS CLOUDS. THE VISIBILITIES ARE ALREADY STARTING
TO LOWER...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF DENSE FOG YET.
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS AND IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS WHICH APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. INVERSION WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A VERY STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND COOLER IN THE VALLEYS DUE TO
THE INVERSION. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED MVFR/IFR STRATUS NEAR KONO THIS EVENING
BECOMING LIFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG FROM KBKE THROUGH THE TREASURE AND
MAGIC VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST NOON SUNDAY. COULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR STRATUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...
NORTHWEST 20-25 KTS DECREASING TO 10-20 KTS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN BELOW 5KFT MSL
THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO WARMING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE WEST COAST
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE
INVERSION...BUT AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO AND THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 60S NEAR BEND OR AND PENDLETON OR. LOW
STRATUS IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF IDAHO
AND NORTHEAST OREGON NEAR BAKER CITY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT AND IS
CONTINGENT ON THE STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LACK OF SNOW COVER
SHOULD IN TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS TO
BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MIX OUT INVERSION.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL AND NEAR AVERAGE UNDER
THE INVERSION WHILE THE TERRAIN ABOVE THE INVERSION APPROACHES
RECORD WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AIR QUALITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE NW U.S. THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY WILL BE
INTERRUPTED BY 2 SYSTEMS. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE INVERSION
ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/I-84 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TO ROUND OUT JANUARY 2015.

THE FIRST IMPULSE LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST AFFECT. IT LIFTS SSW TO NE
WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE NV BORDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLEND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY AS WELL AS THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS MAKES
SENSE WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE EC/GFS
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT - MOISTURE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS THE S HALF OF ID -
SO TRENDED OREGON POPS DOWN WEDNESDAY. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A
RELATIVELY WARM SYSTEM /FOR JANUARY/ WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY
AROUND 5200 TO 6500 FT.

THE SECOND SYSTEM IS A BIT COOLER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW THAT BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS /RAIN BELOW 5K
FT/  ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO FRIDAY /FASTER AND WETTER IN THE GFS.

BY SATURDAY JANUARY 31ST THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STRONG OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BUT LOWER HEIGHTS RETURN TO THE BAJA AREA...FOR
SPLIT FLOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS...AND PROBABLY A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
IDAHO...WHICH ACT TO SHUNT THE STORM TRACK INTO SE AK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JS
AIR STAGNATION...KA/BW
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM/WH




000
FXUS66 KPDT 250319
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
719 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AND REGION THIS EVENING. THIS HAS PROVIDED
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY.
READINGS WERE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
EXCEPTION IS IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON WHERE THERE
WAS TRAPPED COLD AIR AND TEMPERATURES THERE AND TEMPERATURES ONLY
REACHED INTO THE MID 40S. THIS UPPER RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPERATURES. THERE IS
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS
WHICH SCOURED OUT THE INVERSION AND ALLOWED SUCH MILD TEMPERATURES
AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THERE COULD BE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN AREAS...
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN THE AIR MASS WILL BE THE WARMEST. ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND
ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
REBUILD AGAIN. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE WASHINGTON LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE ADJACENT VALLEYS TO
THE WEST AND NORTH EACH NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN OVER OREGON SECTIONS OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THEREFORE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COULD SPREAD
SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AS
WELL FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
EXCEPT AT KPSC...KYKM...KALW...KDLS WHERE LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITY
WITH PATCHY FOG MAY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 320 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM KEEPING
CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY. EXPECT SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING MAINLY
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. OVERTIME THE
INVERSION WILL LIFT AND ALLOW THE FOG TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. AS THIS HAPPENS COOLER AIR WILL BE TRAPPED BENEATH
THE INVERSION WHILE ABOVE THE INVERSION TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
RECORD HIGHS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND FLATTEN SOME ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING
ABOVE THE INVERSION BUT EXPECT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO EXPECT SOME INCREASING SOUTH WINDS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN OREGON LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME VERY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND MAY NECESSITATE A NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH...FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND PROBABLY EVEN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT OTHER THAN A
FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE COAST CREATING
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST. CENTRAL OREGON SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT WARMER THOUGH...SINCE THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE THE COLUMBIA BASIN STRATUS DECK.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  64  42  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  43  59  42  58 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  39  50  36  48 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  34  50  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  40  55  36  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  36  50  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  40  66  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  40  51  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  39  58  39  57 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  41  58  38  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/82/88









000
FXUS66 KPDT 250319
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
719 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AND REGION THIS EVENING. THIS HAS PROVIDED
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY.
READINGS WERE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
EXCEPTION IS IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON WHERE THERE
WAS TRAPPED COLD AIR AND TEMPERATURES THERE AND TEMPERATURES ONLY
REACHED INTO THE MID 40S. THIS UPPER RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPERATURES. THERE IS
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST OREGON MOUNTAINS
WHICH SCOURED OUT THE INVERSION AND ALLOWED SUCH MILD TEMPERATURES
AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THERE COULD BE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN AREAS...
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN THE AIR MASS WILL BE THE WARMEST. ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND
ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CASCADES AND POSSIBLY
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
REBUILD AGAIN. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE WASHINGTON LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE ADJACENT VALLEYS TO
THE WEST AND NORTH EACH NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN OVER OREGON SECTIONS OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND THEREFORE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COULD SPREAD
SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AS
WELL FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. 88

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
EXCEPT AT KPSC...KYKM...KALW...KDLS WHERE LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITY
WITH PATCHY FOG MAY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES. 88

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 320 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM KEEPING
CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY. EXPECT SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING MAINLY
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. OVERTIME THE
INVERSION WILL LIFT AND ALLOW THE FOG TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. AS THIS HAPPENS COOLER AIR WILL BE TRAPPED BENEATH
THE INVERSION WHILE ABOVE THE INVERSION TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
RECORD HIGHS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND FLATTEN SOME ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING
ABOVE THE INVERSION BUT EXPECT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO EXPECT SOME INCREASING SOUTH WINDS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN OREGON LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME VERY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND MAY NECESSITATE A NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH...FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND PROBABLY EVEN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT OTHER THAN A
FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE COAST CREATING
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST. CENTRAL OREGON SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT WARMER THOUGH...SINCE THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE THE COLUMBIA BASIN STRATUS DECK.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  64  42  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  43  59  42  58 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  39  50  36  48 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  34  50  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  40  55  36  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  36  50  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  40  66  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  40  51  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  39  58  39  57 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  41  58  38  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/82/88








000
FXUS66 KPDT 242319 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
320 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM KEEPING
CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY. EXPECT SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING MAINLY
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. OVERTIME THE
INVERSION WILL LIFT AND ALLOW THE FOG TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. AS THIS HAPPENS COOLER AIR WILL BE TRAPPED BENEATH
THE INVERSION WHILE ABOVE THE INVERSION TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
RECORD HIGHS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND FLATTEN SOME ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING
ABOVE THE INVERSION BUT EXPECT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO EXPECT SOME INCREASING SOUTH WINDS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN OREGON LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME VERY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND MAY NECESSITATE A NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH...FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND PROBABLY EVEN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT OTHER THAN A
FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE COAST CREATING
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST. CENTRAL OREGON SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT WARMER THOUGH...SINCE THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE THE COLUMBIA BASIN STRATUS DECK.  COBB


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT KBDN
AND KRDM WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. KPDT WILL ALSO LIKELY REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...LOW STRATUS COULD PERSIST AT KPSC AND WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP WITH FOG AT KDLS AND KYKM TONIGHT. KALW IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING FOG. THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL CAUSE MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  61  42  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  43  61  42  58 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  39  52  36  48 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  34  50  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  40  57  36  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  36  50  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  40  64  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  40  51  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  39  58  39  57 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  41  58  38  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82







000
FXUS66 KMFR 242246
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
246 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITION TO THE
AREA WITH STAGNANT AIR FOR INLAND VALLEYS. ON TUESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY WILL A LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE UP
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.

ALONG THE COAST, A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
EXPAND NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND SHIFT INLAND ON MONDAY. A CONTINUED
STRONG EAST- WEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
THE COAST WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND WINDS NEAR SHORE BECOME
SOUTHERLY.

INLAND, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING VERY WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S WEST OF THE CASCADES AND TO AROUND 60
EAST OF THE CASCADES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMEST
IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, ILLINOIS VALLEY
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW
THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VALLEY FOG OUT OF THE TALENT AND
ASHLAND AREAS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY RESULT IN
LESS FOG DEVELOPING IN THE MEDFORD AREA. ON MONDAY THE INVERSION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG, SO WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ON TUESDAY, A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THE HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAKENING PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE COAST LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE A LOW
TO THE SOUTH WILL PUSH INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOST THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THOUGH AND CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL BE IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE AREA EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
AND A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STAGNANT AIR PATTERN, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE STAGNANT AIR THOUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY LIMITED
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO STAGNANT AIR CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK UP TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THE
5000 FOOT TEMPERATURES...A GOOD INDICATOR OF HOW WARM AN AIR MASS
WILL BE...SUGGEST TOP 10 PERCENT WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COAST COULD REACH TOP 5 PERCENT
WARMTH...AND READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
FOR THE COAST BY SATURDAY.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS FEBRUARY...OCCURRENCES OF OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
FOG DECREASE SHARPLY IN MOST PLACES...DUE TO SHORTER NIGHTS AND
INCREASING SUN ANGLE...AND LESS PRECIPITATION TOO. THEREFORE...AS
RIDGING BUILDS AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK WE HAVE ONLY KEPT FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS...AND THE
GRANTS PASS AREA. EVEN THESE AREAS COULD BE FOG-FREE GIVEN THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/18Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY VFR WITH ONLY ISOLATED IFR/MVFR CIGS
LINGERING INTO THIS AFTERNOON NEAR GRANTS PASS. THEN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE UMPQUA AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE GRANTS PASS AREA...IS HIGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DISRUPT FOG FORMATION IN
MEDFORD AND ESPECIALLY IN ASHLAND...SO CONFIDENCE IN IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IS LOWER THERE.
LASTLY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CEILINGS IN NORTH BEND TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING EASTERLY OFFSHORE
FLOW CLEAR OUT THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. /SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 211 PM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC/SK




000
FXUS66 KMFR 242246
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
246 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITION TO THE
AREA WITH STAGNANT AIR FOR INLAND VALLEYS. ON TUESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY WILL A LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE UP
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.

ALONG THE COAST, A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
EXPAND NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND SHIFT INLAND ON MONDAY. A CONTINUED
STRONG EAST- WEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
THE COAST WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND WINDS NEAR SHORE BECOME
SOUTHERLY.

INLAND, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING VERY WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S WEST OF THE CASCADES AND TO AROUND 60
EAST OF THE CASCADES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMEST
IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, ILLINOIS VALLEY
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW
THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VALLEY FOG OUT OF THE TALENT AND
ASHLAND AREAS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY RESULT IN
LESS FOG DEVELOPING IN THE MEDFORD AREA. ON MONDAY THE INVERSION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG, SO WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ON TUESDAY, A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THE HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAKENING PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE COAST LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE A LOW
TO THE SOUTH WILL PUSH INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOST THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THOUGH AND CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL BE IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE AREA EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
AND A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STAGNANT AIR PATTERN, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE STAGNANT AIR THOUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY LIMITED
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO STAGNANT AIR CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK UP TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THE
5000 FOOT TEMPERATURES...A GOOD INDICATOR OF HOW WARM AN AIR MASS
WILL BE...SUGGEST TOP 10 PERCENT WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COAST COULD REACH TOP 5 PERCENT
WARMTH...AND READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
FOR THE COAST BY SATURDAY.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS FEBRUARY...OCCURRENCES OF OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
FOG DECREASE SHARPLY IN MOST PLACES...DUE TO SHORTER NIGHTS AND
INCREASING SUN ANGLE...AND LESS PRECIPITATION TOO. THEREFORE...AS
RIDGING BUILDS AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK WE HAVE ONLY KEPT FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS...AND THE
GRANTS PASS AREA. EVEN THESE AREAS COULD BE FOG-FREE GIVEN THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/18Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY VFR WITH ONLY ISOLATED IFR/MVFR CIGS
LINGERING INTO THIS AFTERNOON NEAR GRANTS PASS. THEN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE UMPQUA AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE GRANTS PASS AREA...IS HIGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DISRUPT FOG FORMATION IN
MEDFORD AND ESPECIALLY IN ASHLAND...SO CONFIDENCE IN IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IS LOWER THERE.
LASTLY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CEILINGS IN NORTH BEND TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING EASTERLY OFFSHORE
FLOW CLEAR OUT THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. /SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 211 PM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC/SK




000
FXUS66 KMFR 242246
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
246 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITION TO THE
AREA WITH STAGNANT AIR FOR INLAND VALLEYS. ON TUESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY WILL A LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE UP
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.

ALONG THE COAST, A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
EXPAND NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND SHIFT INLAND ON MONDAY. A CONTINUED
STRONG EAST- WEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
THE COAST WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND WINDS NEAR SHORE BECOME
SOUTHERLY.

INLAND, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING VERY WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S WEST OF THE CASCADES AND TO AROUND 60
EAST OF THE CASCADES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMEST
IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, ILLINOIS VALLEY
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW
THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VALLEY FOG OUT OF THE TALENT AND
ASHLAND AREAS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY RESULT IN
LESS FOG DEVELOPING IN THE MEDFORD AREA. ON MONDAY THE INVERSION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG, SO WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ON TUESDAY, A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THE HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAKENING PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE COAST LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE A LOW
TO THE SOUTH WILL PUSH INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOST THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THOUGH AND CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL BE IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE AREA EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
AND A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STAGNANT AIR PATTERN, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE STAGNANT AIR THOUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY LIMITED
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO STAGNANT AIR CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK UP TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THE
5000 FOOT TEMPERATURES...A GOOD INDICATOR OF HOW WARM AN AIR MASS
WILL BE...SUGGEST TOP 10 PERCENT WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COAST COULD REACH TOP 5 PERCENT
WARMTH...AND READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
FOR THE COAST BY SATURDAY.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS FEBRUARY...OCCURRENCES OF OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
FOG DECREASE SHARPLY IN MOST PLACES...DUE TO SHORTER NIGHTS AND
INCREASING SUN ANGLE...AND LESS PRECIPITATION TOO. THEREFORE...AS
RIDGING BUILDS AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK WE HAVE ONLY KEPT FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS...AND THE
GRANTS PASS AREA. EVEN THESE AREAS COULD BE FOG-FREE GIVEN THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/18Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY VFR WITH ONLY ISOLATED IFR/MVFR CIGS
LINGERING INTO THIS AFTERNOON NEAR GRANTS PASS. THEN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE UMPQUA AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE GRANTS PASS AREA...IS HIGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DISRUPT FOG FORMATION IN
MEDFORD AND ESPECIALLY IN ASHLAND...SO CONFIDENCE IN IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IS LOWER THERE.
LASTLY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CEILINGS IN NORTH BEND TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING EASTERLY OFFSHORE
FLOW CLEAR OUT THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. /SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 211 PM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC/SK




000
FXUS66 KMFR 242246
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
246 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITION TO THE
AREA WITH STAGNANT AIR FOR INLAND VALLEYS. ON TUESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY WILL A LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE UP
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.

ALONG THE COAST, A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
EXPAND NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND SHIFT INLAND ON MONDAY. A CONTINUED
STRONG EAST- WEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
THE COAST WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND WINDS NEAR SHORE BECOME
SOUTHERLY.

INLAND, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING VERY WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S WEST OF THE CASCADES AND TO AROUND 60
EAST OF THE CASCADES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMEST
IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, ILLINOIS VALLEY
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW
THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VALLEY FOG OUT OF THE TALENT AND
ASHLAND AREAS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY RESULT IN
LESS FOG DEVELOPING IN THE MEDFORD AREA. ON MONDAY THE INVERSION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG, SO WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ON TUESDAY, A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THE HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAKENING PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE COAST LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE A LOW
TO THE SOUTH WILL PUSH INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOST THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THOUGH AND CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL BE IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE AREA EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
AND A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STAGNANT AIR PATTERN, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE STAGNANT AIR THOUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY LIMITED
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO STAGNANT AIR CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK UP TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THE
5000 FOOT TEMPERATURES...A GOOD INDICATOR OF HOW WARM AN AIR MASS
WILL BE...SUGGEST TOP 10 PERCENT WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COAST COULD REACH TOP 5 PERCENT
WARMTH...AND READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
FOR THE COAST BY SATURDAY.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS FEBRUARY...OCCURRENCES OF OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
FOG DECREASE SHARPLY IN MOST PLACES...DUE TO SHORTER NIGHTS AND
INCREASING SUN ANGLE...AND LESS PRECIPITATION TOO. THEREFORE...AS
RIDGING BUILDS AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK WE HAVE ONLY KEPT FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS...AND THE
GRANTS PASS AREA. EVEN THESE AREAS COULD BE FOG-FREE GIVEN THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/18Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY VFR WITH ONLY ISOLATED IFR/MVFR CIGS
LINGERING INTO THIS AFTERNOON NEAR GRANTS PASS. THEN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE UMPQUA AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE GRANTS PASS AREA...IS HIGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DISRUPT FOG FORMATION IN
MEDFORD AND ESPECIALLY IN ASHLAND...SO CONFIDENCE IN IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IS LOWER THERE.
LASTLY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CEILINGS IN NORTH BEND TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING EASTERLY OFFSHORE
FLOW CLEAR OUT THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. /SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 211 PM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC/SK




000
FXUS66 KPQR 242241
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES NOT
SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...INLAND SITES HAVE CLEARED TO VFR...WHILE STRATUS OVER
THE COAST HAS KEPT MARINE FOG OVER KAST AND KONP. THIS HAS KEPT
CIGS AND VIS OVER THE COAST MVFR/IFR. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP INITIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING...THEN ALONG THE NORTH COAST EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FOG/LOW STRATUS. WITH FOG
CLEARED THESE SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE AT KAST THAT A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COULD PUSH
SOME FOG INTO THE TERMINAL FROM YOUNGS BAY...WHICH COULD DROP CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR...BUT THIS IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE. INLAND SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH TODAY...BUT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
FOG LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD BE DENSE ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS WILL BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL HELP TO MIX
OUT THIS FOG BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON UP NORTH...BUT
KEUG AND POSSIBLY KSLE AS WELL MIGHT ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL START TO
DETERIORATE LATE EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
FOG TO START TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING...LOWERING VIS TO
MVFR BY 10Z WITH A GOOD CHANCE CIGS AND VIS COULD LOWER TO IFR BY
12Z. WITH FOG OVER THE AREA...CIGS AND VIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR
UNTIL AROUND 15Z WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS START TO DEVELOP
HELPING TO LIFT CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR BY 18Z...AND IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20-21Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CURRENTLY ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE
WATERS AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE WATERS. A SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO OUR
NORTH WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BRING WINDS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AS OF NOW
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AS MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET OVER THE WATERS. AFTER TUESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS AROUND 10 TO 12 FT CURRENTLY WILL FALL BELOW 10 FT LATER
THIS EVENING. NORTHERN WATERS COULD HANG ON TO SEAS ABOVE 10 FT A
LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO 7 TO
9 FT LATER TONIGHT...BUT THIS BREAK MAY BE BRIEF AS MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER 10 FT SWELL MOVING IN MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BRING
SEAS RIGHT BACK UP TO 10 TO 11 FT. DID NOT ISSUE SMALL CRAFT JUST
YET...AS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SEAS GET A BIT HIGHER AT BUOY 005 TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SWELL ACTUALLY WILL BE 10 FT WHEN
IT REACHES OUR WATERS. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 242241
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES NOT
SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...INLAND SITES HAVE CLEARED TO VFR...WHILE STRATUS OVER
THE COAST HAS KEPT MARINE FOG OVER KAST AND KONP. THIS HAS KEPT
CIGS AND VIS OVER THE COAST MVFR/IFR. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP INITIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING...THEN ALONG THE NORTH COAST EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FOG/LOW STRATUS. WITH FOG
CLEARED THESE SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE AT KAST THAT A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COULD PUSH
SOME FOG INTO THE TERMINAL FROM YOUNGS BAY...WHICH COULD DROP CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR...BUT THIS IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE. INLAND SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH TODAY...BUT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
FOG LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD BE DENSE ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS WILL BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL HELP TO MIX
OUT THIS FOG BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON UP NORTH...BUT
KEUG AND POSSIBLY KSLE AS WELL MIGHT ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL START TO
DETERIORATE LATE EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
FOG TO START TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING...LOWERING VIS TO
MVFR BY 10Z WITH A GOOD CHANCE CIGS AND VIS COULD LOWER TO IFR BY
12Z. WITH FOG OVER THE AREA...CIGS AND VIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR
UNTIL AROUND 15Z WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS START TO DEVELOP
HELPING TO LIFT CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR BY 18Z...AND IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20-21Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CURRENTLY ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE
WATERS AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE WATERS. A SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO OUR
NORTH WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BRING WINDS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AS OF NOW
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AS MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET OVER THE WATERS. AFTER TUESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS AROUND 10 TO 12 FT CURRENTLY WILL FALL BELOW 10 FT LATER
THIS EVENING. NORTHERN WATERS COULD HANG ON TO SEAS ABOVE 10 FT A
LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO 7 TO
9 FT LATER TONIGHT...BUT THIS BREAK MAY BE BRIEF AS MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER 10 FT SWELL MOVING IN MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BRING
SEAS RIGHT BACK UP TO 10 TO 11 FT. DID NOT ISSUE SMALL CRAFT JUST
YET...AS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SEAS GET A BIT HIGHER AT BUOY 005 TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SWELL ACTUALLY WILL BE 10 FT WHEN
IT REACHES OUR WATERS. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 242241
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES NOT
SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...INLAND SITES HAVE CLEARED TO VFR...WHILE STRATUS OVER
THE COAST HAS KEPT MARINE FOG OVER KAST AND KONP. THIS HAS KEPT
CIGS AND VIS OVER THE COAST MVFR/IFR. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP INITIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING...THEN ALONG THE NORTH COAST EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FOG/LOW STRATUS. WITH FOG
CLEARED THESE SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE AT KAST THAT A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COULD PUSH
SOME FOG INTO THE TERMINAL FROM YOUNGS BAY...WHICH COULD DROP CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR...BUT THIS IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE. INLAND SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH TODAY...BUT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
FOG LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD BE DENSE ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS WILL BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL HELP TO MIX
OUT THIS FOG BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON UP NORTH...BUT
KEUG AND POSSIBLY KSLE AS WELL MIGHT ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL START TO
DETERIORATE LATE EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
FOG TO START TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING...LOWERING VIS TO
MVFR BY 10Z WITH A GOOD CHANCE CIGS AND VIS COULD LOWER TO IFR BY
12Z. WITH FOG OVER THE AREA...CIGS AND VIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR
UNTIL AROUND 15Z WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS START TO DEVELOP
HELPING TO LIFT CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR BY 18Z...AND IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20-21Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CURRENTLY ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE
WATERS AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE WATERS. A SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO OUR
NORTH WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BRING WINDS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AS OF NOW
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AS MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET OVER THE WATERS. AFTER TUESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS AROUND 10 TO 12 FT CURRENTLY WILL FALL BELOW 10 FT LATER
THIS EVENING. NORTHERN WATERS COULD HANG ON TO SEAS ABOVE 10 FT A
LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO 7 TO
9 FT LATER TONIGHT...BUT THIS BREAK MAY BE BRIEF AS MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER 10 FT SWELL MOVING IN MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BRING
SEAS RIGHT BACK UP TO 10 TO 11 FT. DID NOT ISSUE SMALL CRAFT JUST
YET...AS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SEAS GET A BIT HIGHER AT BUOY 005 TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SWELL ACTUALLY WILL BE 10 FT WHEN
IT REACHES OUR WATERS. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS66 KPQR 242241
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST TUESDAY FOR A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID-WEEK AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TODAY DEFINITELY DOES NOT
SEEM LIKE LATE JANUARY...MORE LIKE MID-APRIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT OVERLAYS SHOW A 590 DM HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
35N 130W. THE MODEL 582 DM CONTOUR WAS AS FAR N AS KTMK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY THREATENING RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY DUE TO
MINIMAL MORNING INVERSIONS. KPDX WAS 60 DEG AT 21Z...JUST ONE OFF THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE. KTTD WAS 62 DEG AT 21Z...ALREADY TOPPING THE
RECORD OF 61 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1984.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE CONFINED TO THE SW WA ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND SUN. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH BETTER RADIATIVE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER INVERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. INLAND VALLEY MAX TEMP FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE
CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM HINTS AT A
LITTLE LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE TONIGHT...
BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STIR THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THAT MUCH.

THE STRONG H5 RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE +15C TO +18C 850 TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION SUN. THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT STILL INDICATES MAX 850 MB TEMP
PERCENTILES 06Z SUN THROUGH 00Z TUE. IF IT WERE LATE MAY OR JUNE
INLAND MAX TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE PUSHING 90 DEG. OBVIOUSLY...SUN
ANGLE IS A MAJOR FACTOR. EXPECT AREAS N OF KUAO TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF CLEARING SUN AND MON. AREAS S OF KUAO LIKELY TO HAVE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY MON IF A LIGHT NLY
SURFACE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. KAST AND KONP LIKELY TO BREAK RECORD HIGH
TEMPS SUN. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW JANUARY DAYS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AT OR ABOVE 17C SINCE THE 1950S WHEN UPPER AIR RECORDS ARE FIRST
AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN AND MON MORNING EXPECTED TO BE
MILD ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS WELL E OF THE REGION MON WITH H8 TEMPS COOLING TO 10 TO 12C.

GFS...NAM AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING SOME ENERGY NWD THROUGH NEVADA MON
NIGHT FROM A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS HOLD THE NEVADA MOISTURE OVER
EXTREME SRN OREGON TUE WHILE THE WEAKENING PAC FRONT FALLS APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
OVER SW WA AND COASTAL AREAS OF NW OREGON TUE. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST...AS THE FRONT
DRAGS AND LINGERS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING BY
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
BENIGN CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AT MOST LOCATIONS.
/27
&&


.AVIATION...INLAND SITES HAVE CLEARED TO VFR...WHILE STRATUS OVER
THE COAST HAS KEPT MARINE FOG OVER KAST AND KONP. THIS HAS KEPT
CIGS AND VIS OVER THE COAST MVFR/IFR. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP INITIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
COAST THIS EVENING...THEN ALONG THE NORTH COAST EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FOG/LOW STRATUS. WITH FOG
CLEARED THESE SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE AT KAST THAT A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COULD PUSH
SOME FOG INTO THE TERMINAL FROM YOUNGS BAY...WHICH COULD DROP CIGS
AND VIS TO IFR...BUT THIS IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE. INLAND SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH TODAY...BUT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
FOG LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD BE DENSE ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS WILL BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR EARLY SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL HELP TO MIX
OUT THIS FOG BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON UP NORTH...BUT
KEUG AND POSSIBLY KSLE AS WELL MIGHT ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL START TO
DETERIORATE LATE EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
FOG TO START TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING...LOWERING VIS TO
MVFR BY 10Z WITH A GOOD CHANCE CIGS AND VIS COULD LOWER TO IFR BY
12Z. WITH FOG OVER THE AREA...CIGS AND VIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR
UNTIL AROUND 15Z WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS START TO DEVELOP
HELPING TO LIFT CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR BY 18Z...AND IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20-21Z. -MCCOY

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CURRENTLY ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE
WATERS AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE WATERS. A SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO OUR
NORTH WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BRING WINDS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AS OF NOW
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AS MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET OVER THE WATERS. AFTER TUESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SEAS AROUND 10 TO 12 FT CURRENTLY WILL FALL BELOW 10 FT LATER
THIS EVENING. NORTHERN WATERS COULD HANG ON TO SEAS ABOVE 10 FT A
LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO 7 TO
9 FT LATER TONIGHT...BUT THIS BREAK MAY BE BRIEF AS MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER 10 FT SWELL MOVING IN MID-MORNING SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BRING
SEAS RIGHT BACK UP TO 10 TO 11 FT. DID NOT ISSUE SMALL CRAFT JUST
YET...AS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SEAS GET A BIT HIGHER AT BUOY 005 TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SWELL ACTUALLY WILL BE 10 FT WHEN
IT REACHES OUR WATERS. WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS. -MCCOY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
     HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



000
FXUS65 KBOI 242144
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO AND THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 60S NEAR BEND OR AND PENDLETON OR. LOW
STRATUS IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF IDAHO
AND NORTHEAST OREGON NEAR BAKER CITY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT AND IS
CONTINGENT ON THE STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LACK OF SNOW COVER
SHOULD IN TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS TO
BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MIX OUT INVERSION.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL AND NEAR AVERAGE UNDER
THE INVERSION WHILE THE TERRAIN ABOVE THE INVERSION APPROACHES
RECORD WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AIR QUALITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE NW U.S. THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY WILL BE
INTERRUPTED BY 2 SYSTEMS. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE INVERSION
ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/I-84 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TO ROUND OUT JANUARY 2015.

THE FIRST IMPULSE LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST AFFECT. IT LIFTS SSW TO NE
WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE NV BORDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLEND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY AS WELL AS THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS MAKES
SENSE WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE EC/GFS
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT - MOISTURE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS THE S HALF OF ID -
SO TRENDED OREGON POPS DOWN WEDNESDAY. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A
RELATIVELY WARM SYSTEM /FOR JANUARY/ WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY
AROUND 5200 TO 6500 FT.

THE SECOND SYSTEM IS A BIT COOLER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW THAT BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS /RAIN BELOW 5K
FT/  ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO FRIDAY /FASTER AND WETTER IN THE GFS.

BY SATURDAY JANUARY 31ST THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STRONG OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BUT LOWER HEIGHTS RETURN TO THE BAJA AREA...FOR
SPLIT FLOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS...AND PROBABLY A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
IDAHO...WHICH ACT TO SHUNT THE STORM TRACK INTO SE AK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR STRATUS THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LIFR/IFR
STRATUS WITHIN 50-75NM ALONG THE I-84 CORRIDOR FROM KBKE THROUGH THE
TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH NOONTIME SUNDAY THEN
IMPROVING TO AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS. ISOLATED SHOWERS N AND E OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KJER UNTIL SUNSET. VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS UP TO
12 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NORTHWEST 20-25 KTS
DECREASING AND BECOMING AND N TO NE 10-20 KTS FOR SUNDAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS MONDAY EXCEPT NE WINDS TO 15 KNOTS ALOFT.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN BELOW 5KFT MSL.
SUNDAY THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD WHICH
WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND KEEP POLLUTION NEAR THE SURFACE.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE WEST COAST FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TEMPORARILY CLEAN
POLLUTION OUT OF THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MAGIC AND TREASURE
VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM/WH
AVIATION.....VM
AIR STAGNATION...KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 242144
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO AND THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 60S NEAR BEND OR AND PENDLETON OR. LOW
STRATUS IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF IDAHO
AND NORTHEAST OREGON NEAR BAKER CITY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT AND IS
CONTINGENT ON THE STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LACK OF SNOW COVER
SHOULD IN TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS TO
BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MIX OUT INVERSION.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL AND NEAR AVERAGE UNDER
THE INVERSION WHILE THE TERRAIN ABOVE THE INVERSION APPROACHES
RECORD WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AIR QUALITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE NW U.S. THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY WILL BE
INTERRUPTED BY 2 SYSTEMS. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE INVERSION
ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/I-84 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TO ROUND OUT JANUARY 2015.

THE FIRST IMPULSE LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST AFFECT. IT LIFTS SSW TO NE
WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE NV BORDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLEND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY AS WELL AS THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS MAKES
SENSE WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE EC/GFS
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT - MOISTURE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS THE S HALF OF ID -
SO TRENDED OREGON POPS DOWN WEDNESDAY. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A
RELATIVELY WARM SYSTEM /FOR JANUARY/ WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY
AROUND 5200 TO 6500 FT.

THE SECOND SYSTEM IS A BIT COOLER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW THAT BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS /RAIN BELOW 5K
FT/  ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO FRIDAY /FASTER AND WETTER IN THE GFS.

BY SATURDAY JANUARY 31ST THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STRONG OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BUT LOWER HEIGHTS RETURN TO THE BAJA AREA...FOR
SPLIT FLOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS...AND PROBABLY A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
IDAHO...WHICH ACT TO SHUNT THE STORM TRACK INTO SE AK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR STRATUS THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LIFR/IFR
STRATUS WITHIN 50-75NM ALONG THE I-84 CORRIDOR FROM KBKE THROUGH THE
TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH NOONTIME SUNDAY THEN
IMPROVING TO AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS. ISOLATED SHOWERS N AND E OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KJER UNTIL SUNSET. VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS UP TO
12 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NORTHWEST 20-25 KTS
DECREASING AND BECOMING AND N TO NE 10-20 KTS FOR SUNDAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS MONDAY EXCEPT NE WINDS TO 15 KNOTS ALOFT.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN BELOW 5KFT MSL.
SUNDAY THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD WHICH
WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND KEEP POLLUTION NEAR THE SURFACE.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE WEST COAST FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TEMPORARILY CLEAN
POLLUTION OUT OF THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MAGIC AND TREASURE
VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM/WH
AVIATION.....VM
AIR STAGNATION...KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 242144
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO AND THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 60S NEAR BEND OR AND PENDLETON OR. LOW
STRATUS IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF IDAHO
AND NORTHEAST OREGON NEAR BAKER CITY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT AND IS
CONTINGENT ON THE STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LACK OF SNOW COVER
SHOULD IN TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS TO
BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MIX OUT INVERSION.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL AND NEAR AVERAGE UNDER
THE INVERSION WHILE THE TERRAIN ABOVE THE INVERSION APPROACHES
RECORD WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AIR QUALITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE NW U.S. THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY WILL BE
INTERRUPTED BY 2 SYSTEMS. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE INVERSION
ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/I-84 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TO ROUND OUT JANUARY 2015.

THE FIRST IMPULSE LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST AFFECT. IT LIFTS SSW TO NE
WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE NV BORDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLEND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY AS WELL AS THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS MAKES
SENSE WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE EC/GFS
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT - MOISTURE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS THE S HALF OF ID -
SO TRENDED OREGON POPS DOWN WEDNESDAY. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A
RELATIVELY WARM SYSTEM /FOR JANUARY/ WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY
AROUND 5200 TO 6500 FT.

THE SECOND SYSTEM IS A BIT COOLER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW THAT BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS /RAIN BELOW 5K
FT/  ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO FRIDAY /FASTER AND WETTER IN THE GFS.

BY SATURDAY JANUARY 31ST THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STRONG OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BUT LOWER HEIGHTS RETURN TO THE BAJA AREA...FOR
SPLIT FLOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS...AND PROBABLY A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
IDAHO...WHICH ACT TO SHUNT THE STORM TRACK INTO SE AK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR STRATUS THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LIFR/IFR
STRATUS WITHIN 50-75NM ALONG THE I-84 CORRIDOR FROM KBKE THROUGH THE
TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH NOONTIME SUNDAY THEN
IMPROVING TO AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS. ISOLATED SHOWERS N AND E OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KJER UNTIL SUNSET. VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS UP TO
12 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NORTHWEST 20-25 KTS
DECREASING AND BECOMING AND N TO NE 10-20 KTS FOR SUNDAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS MONDAY EXCEPT NE WINDS TO 15 KNOTS ALOFT.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN BELOW 5KFT MSL.
SUNDAY THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD WHICH
WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND KEEP POLLUTION NEAR THE SURFACE.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE WEST COAST FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TEMPORARILY CLEAN
POLLUTION OUT OF THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MAGIC AND TREASURE
VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM/WH
AVIATION.....VM
AIR STAGNATION...KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 242144
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO AND THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 60S NEAR BEND OR AND PENDLETON OR. LOW
STRATUS IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF IDAHO
AND NORTHEAST OREGON NEAR BAKER CITY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT AND IS
CONTINGENT ON THE STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LACK OF SNOW COVER
SHOULD IN TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS TO
BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MIX OUT INVERSION.
VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL AND NEAR AVERAGE UNDER
THE INVERSION WHILE THE TERRAIN ABOVE THE INVERSION APPROACHES
RECORD WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AIR QUALITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE NW U.S. THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY WILL BE
INTERRUPTED BY 2 SYSTEMS. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE INVERSION
ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/I-84 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TO ROUND OUT JANUARY 2015.

THE FIRST IMPULSE LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST AFFECT. IT LIFTS SSW TO NE
WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE NV BORDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLEND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY AS WELL AS THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS MAKES
SENSE WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE EC/GFS
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT - MOISTURE LIFTS MAINLY ACROSS THE S HALF OF ID -
SO TRENDED OREGON POPS DOWN WEDNESDAY. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A
RELATIVELY WARM SYSTEM /FOR JANUARY/ WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY
AROUND 5200 TO 6500 FT.

THE SECOND SYSTEM IS A BIT COOLER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW THAT BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS /RAIN BELOW 5K
FT/  ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO FRIDAY /FASTER AND WETTER IN THE GFS.

BY SATURDAY JANUARY 31ST THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STRONG OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BUT LOWER HEIGHTS RETURN TO THE BAJA AREA...FOR
SPLIT FLOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS...AND PROBABLY A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
IDAHO...WHICH ACT TO SHUNT THE STORM TRACK INTO SE AK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR STRATUS THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LIFR/IFR
STRATUS WITHIN 50-75NM ALONG THE I-84 CORRIDOR FROM KBKE THROUGH THE
TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH NOONTIME SUNDAY THEN
IMPROVING TO AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS. ISOLATED SHOWERS N AND E OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KJER UNTIL SUNSET. VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS UP TO
12 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NORTHWEST 20-25 KTS
DECREASING AND BECOMING AND N TO NE 10-20 KTS FOR SUNDAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS MONDAY EXCEPT NE WINDS TO 15 KNOTS ALOFT.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN BELOW 5KFT MSL.
SUNDAY THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD WHICH
WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND KEEP POLLUTION NEAR THE SURFACE.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE WEST COAST FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TEMPORARILY CLEAN
POLLUTION OUT OF THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MAGIC AND TREASURE
VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM/WH
AVIATION.....VM
AIR STAGNATION...KA




000
FXUS66 KPDT 242135
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
136 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM KEEPING
CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY. EXPECT SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING MAINLY
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. OVERTIME THE
INVERSION WILL LIFT AND ALLOW THE FOG TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. AS THIS HAPPENS COOLER AIR WILL BE TRAPPED BENEATH
THE INVERSION WHILE ABOVE THE INVERSION TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
RECORD HIGHS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND FLATTEN SOME ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING
ABOVE THE INVERSION BUT EXPECT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO EXPECT SOME INCREASING SOUTH WINDS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN OREGON LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME VERY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND MAY NECESSITATE A NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH...FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND PROBABLY EVEN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT OTHER THAN A
FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE COAST CREATING
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST. CENTRAL OREGON SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT WARMER THOUGH...SINCE THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE THE COLUMBIA BASIN STRATUS DECK.  COBB


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...FOG AND
STRATUS COULD PERSIST AT KPSC AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AT KDLS AND
KYKM TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  82


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  61  42  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  43  61  42  58 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  39  52  36  48 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  34  50  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  40  57  36  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  36  50  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  40  64  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  40  51  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  39  58  39  57 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  41  58  38  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82








000
FXUS66 KPDT 242135
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
136 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM KEEPING
CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY. EXPECT SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING MAINLY
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. OVERTIME THE
INVERSION WILL LIFT AND ALLOW THE FOG TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. AS THIS HAPPENS COOLER AIR WILL BE TRAPPED BENEATH
THE INVERSION WHILE ABOVE THE INVERSION TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
RECORD HIGHS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND FLATTEN SOME ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING
ABOVE THE INVERSION BUT EXPECT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO EXPECT SOME INCREASING SOUTH WINDS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN OREGON LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME VERY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND MAY NECESSITATE A NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH...FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND PROBABLY EVEN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT OTHER THAN A
FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE COAST CREATING
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST. CENTRAL OREGON SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT WARMER THOUGH...SINCE THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE THE COLUMBIA BASIN STRATUS DECK.  COBB


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...FOG AND
STRATUS COULD PERSIST AT KPSC AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AT KDLS AND
KYKM TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  82


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  61  42  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  43  61  42  58 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  39  52  36  48 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  34  50  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  40  57  36  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  36  50  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  40  64  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  40  51  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  39  58  39  57 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  41  58  38  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 242135
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
136 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM KEEPING
CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY. EXPECT SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING MAINLY
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. OVERTIME THE
INVERSION WILL LIFT AND ALLOW THE FOG TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. AS THIS HAPPENS COOLER AIR WILL BE TRAPPED BENEATH
THE INVERSION WHILE ABOVE THE INVERSION TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
RECORD HIGHS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND FLATTEN SOME ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING
ABOVE THE INVERSION BUT EXPECT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO EXPECT SOME INCREASING SOUTH WINDS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN OREGON LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME VERY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND MAY NECESSITATE A NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH...FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND PROBABLY EVEN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT OTHER THAN A
FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE COAST CREATING
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST. CENTRAL OREGON SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT WARMER THOUGH...SINCE THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE THE COLUMBIA BASIN STRATUS DECK.  COBB


&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...FOG AND
STRATUS COULD PERSIST AT KPSC AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AT KDLS AND
KYKM TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  82


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  61  42  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  43  61  42  58 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  39  52  36  48 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  34  50  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  40  57  36  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  36  50  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  40  64  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  40  51  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  39  58  39  57 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  41  58  38  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 242133
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
127 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH...FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND PROBABLY EVEN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT OTHER THAN A
FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE COAST CREATING
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST. CENTRAL OREGON SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT WARMER THOUGH...SINCE THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE THE COLUMBIA BASIN STRATUS DECK.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...FOG AND
STRATUS COULD PERSIST AT KPSC AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AT KDLS AND
KYKM TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  61  42  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  43  61  42  58 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  39  52  36  48 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  34  50  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  40  57  36  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  36  50  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  40  64  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  40  51  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  39  58  39  57 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  41  58  38  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82










000
FXUS66 KPDT 242133
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
127 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH...FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND PROBABLY EVEN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT OTHER THAN A
FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE COAST CREATING
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST. CENTRAL OREGON SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT WARMER THOUGH...SINCE THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE THE COLUMBIA BASIN STRATUS DECK.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...FOG AND
STRATUS COULD PERSIST AT KPSC AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AT KDLS AND
KYKM TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  61  42  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  43  61  42  58 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  39  52  36  48 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  34  50  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  40  57  36  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  36  50  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  40  64  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  40  51  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  39  58  39  57 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  41  58  38  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82










000
FXUS66 KPDT 242133
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
127 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH...FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND PROBABLY EVEN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT OTHER THAN A
FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE COAST CREATING
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST. CENTRAL OREGON SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT WARMER THOUGH...SINCE THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE THE COLUMBIA BASIN STRATUS DECK.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...FOG AND
STRATUS COULD PERSIST AT KPSC AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AT KDLS AND
KYKM TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  61  42  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  43  61  42  58 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  39  52  36  48 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  34  50  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  40  57  36  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  36  50  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  40  64  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  40  51  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  39  58  39  57 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  41  58  38  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82










000
FXUS66 KPDT 242133
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
127 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH...FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND PROBABLY EVEN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT OTHER THAN A
FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE COAST CREATING
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST. CENTRAL OREGON SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT WARMER THOUGH...SINCE THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE THE COLUMBIA BASIN STRATUS DECK.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...FOG AND
STRATUS COULD PERSIST AT KPSC AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AT KDLS AND
KYKM TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  61  42  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  43  61  42  58 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  39  52  36  48 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  34  50  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  40  57  36  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  36  50  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  40  64  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  40  51  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  39  58  39  57 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  41  58  38  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82










000
FXUS66 KPDT 242133
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
127 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH...FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND PROBABLY EVEN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT OTHER THAN A
FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE COAST CREATING
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST. CENTRAL OREGON SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT WARMER THOUGH...SINCE THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE THE COLUMBIA BASIN STRATUS DECK.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...FOG AND
STRATUS COULD PERSIST AT KPSC AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AT KDLS AND
KYKM TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  61  42  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  43  61  42  58 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  39  52  36  48 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  34  50  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  40  57  36  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  36  50  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  40  64  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  40  51  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  39  58  39  57 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  41  58  38  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82










000
FXUS66 KPDT 242133
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
127 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GENERALLY DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS SUCH...FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL BE LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND PROBABLY EVEN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT OTHER THAN A
FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE COAST CREATING
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST. CENTRAL OREGON SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT WARMER THOUGH...SINCE THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE THE COLUMBIA BASIN STRATUS DECK.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...FOG AND
STRATUS COULD PERSIST AT KPSC AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AT KDLS AND
KYKM TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  61  42  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  43  61  42  58 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  39  52  36  48 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  34  50  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  40  57  36  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  36  50  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  40  64  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  40  51  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  39  58  39  57 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  41  58  38  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82









000
FXUS66 KPDT 241721 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
923 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BUILDING OVER THE REGION AS A DEPARTING WARM FRONT
EXITS TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING THEN DECREASING
AND COMING TO AN END LATER TODAY AND EVENING. THE WARMER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COULD EVEN
SEE SOME RECORD HIGHS. THIS SAME WARM AIR WILL BEGIN TO FORM SURFACE
BASED INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT IN WHICH SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM
MAINLY AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...FOG AND STRATUS COULD PERSIST AT KPSC
AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AT KDLS AND KYKM TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 10
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  82

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 300 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE CASCADES AND
BLUES WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING IN THE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STARTING TO WARM. ALREADY SEEING TEMPERATURES
INCREASING AT SOME LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 50S FOR MANY AREAS. HOWEVER A LINGERING INVERSION OVER THE
COLUMBIA BASIN MAY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. HOWEVER A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVER THE COLUMBIA
BASIN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS COOLER WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AWAY FROM THE
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE BASIN.  94

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MID/HIGH LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A VERY WEAK PACIFIC
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES WITH A SLIGHT OF RAIN ELSEWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE 6000-6500 FEET
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS ABOVE
6500 FEET WILL GET SOME LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
RIDGE BUILDS BACK AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  44  55  36 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  58  43  55  38 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  56  39  49  35 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  51  34  48  33 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  57  40  52  35 /  10   0   0  10
ELN  48  36  47  34 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  60  40  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  51  40  53  35 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  55  39  56  32 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  58  41  53  36 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82







000
FXUS66 KPDT 241721 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
923 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
THE PROCESS OF BUILDING OVER THE REGION AS A DEPARTING WARM FRONT
EXITS TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING THEN DECREASING
AND COMING TO AN END LATER TODAY AND EVENING. THE WARMER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COULD EVEN
SEE SOME RECORD HIGHS. THIS SAME WARM AIR WILL BEGIN TO FORM SURFACE
BASED INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT IN WHICH SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM
MAINLY AROUND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...FOG AND STRATUS COULD PERSIST AT KPSC
AND WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AT KDLS AND KYKM TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 10
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  82

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 300 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE CASCADES AND
BLUES WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING IN THE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STARTING TO WARM. ALREADY SEEING TEMPERATURES
INCREASING AT SOME LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
IN THE 50S FOR MANY AREAS. HOWEVER A LINGERING INVERSION OVER THE
COLUMBIA BASIN MAY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. HOWEVER A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVER THE COLUMBIA
BASIN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS COOLER WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AWAY FROM THE
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE BASIN.  94

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MID/HIGH LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A VERY WEAK PACIFIC
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES WITH A SLIGHT OF RAIN ELSEWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE 6000-6500 FEET
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS ABOVE
6500 FEET WILL GET SOME LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
RIDGE BUILDS BACK AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  44  55  36 /  10   0   0   0
ALW  58  43  55  38 /  10   0   0  10
PSC  56  39  49  35 /  10   0   0  10
YKM  51  34  48  33 /  10   0   0   0
HRI  57  40  52  35 /  10   0   0  10
ELN  48  36  47  34 /  10   0   0   0
RDM  60  40  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  51  40  53  35 /  20   0   0   0
GCD  55  39  56  32 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  58  41  53  36 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/82/82






000
FXUS66 KMFR 241653
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
853 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THEN MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE RIDGE LINGERING ON
MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. A WEAKENING PACIFIC FRONT
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY WHILE A LOW TO THE
SOUTH MOVES INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.

THIS MORNING DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING IN THE ROSEBURG, GRANTS PASS,
ILLINOIS VALLEY AND MEDFORD AREAS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN
THE LATE LATE MORNING WITH CLEARING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE GRANTS PASS AND ROSEBURG AREAS
THOUGH TODAY BUT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DENSE AFTER THE LATE
MORNING PERIOD. CURRENTLY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
LATE THIS MORNING FOR INLAND WESTERN VALLEYS IN SOUTHERN OREGON.

OTHERWISE THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WARMING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WITH CLEARING. A STRONG INVERSION WILL
RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND SUNDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY REACHING THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN A SLIGHTLY LESS WARM DUE TO A CONTINUED INVERSION AS WELL
AS SOME MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOG IN WESTERN VALLEYS. STILL
EXPECT MOST INLAND VALLEYS TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TODAY...THEN INTO THE 60S OR UPPER 50S ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TO THE AREA  SUNDAY.

COASTAL AREAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE UNUSUALLY WARM THIS WEEKEND
AS OFFSHORE FLOW WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPS. SOME
BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME BREEZY WINDS TO THE ASHLAND AREA
AND MAY KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEY,
MAINLY SOUTH OF MEDFORD.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/12Z TAF CYCLE...LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z. VALLEY LIFR WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 300 AM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. /DW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS ONES AND I HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND THAT THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD STARTED. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. INLAND VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG TODAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON, WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR RECORD VALUES ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST
INLAND VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. ALSO DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPERATURES, A
STRONG INVERSION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LIMITED WINDS AND VERTICAL MIXING IN THE VALLEYS. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED STAGNANT AIR FOR INLAND VALLEYS.

A STRONG EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT CENTERED OVER THE CASCADES
WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY
BRING BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE RIDGES IN THE
SISKIYOUS AND CASCADES. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY WINDS GETTING
INTO THE ASHLAND AND TALENT AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. SO HAVE KEPT FOG OUT OF THESE AREAS. ALSO
IF LIGHT WINDS PERSIST IN THE ROGUE VALLEY NEAR MEDFORD, FOG MAY
BE LIMITED AND MORE PATCHY ON SUNDAY FOR THE MEDFORD VALLEY AREA.

THE RIDGE PERSISTS INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING
ON MONDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONT. HOWEVER
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE INTO WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON SO MAIN EFFECT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE MINIMAL. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC




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